WorldWideScience

Sample records for heat-related mortality impacts

  1. Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

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    Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2017-01-01

    A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

  2. Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

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    Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

    2017-05-01

    A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The application of the European heat wave of 2003 to Korean cities to analyze impacts on heat-related mortality

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    Greene, J. Scott; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Kim, Kyu Rang; Choi, Young-Jean; Lee, Dae-Geun

    2016-02-01

    The goal of this research is to transpose the unprecedented 2003 European excessive heat event to six Korean cities and to develop meteorological analogs for each. Since this heat episode is not a model but an actual event, we can use a plausible analog to assess the risk of increasing heat on these cities instead of an analog that is dependent on general circulation (GCM) modeling or the development of arbitrary scenarios. Initially, the 2003 summer meteorological conditions from Paris are characterized statistically and these characteristics are transferred to the Korean cites. Next, the new meteorological dataset for each Korean city is converted into a daily air mass calendar. We can then determine the frequency and character of "offensive" air masses in the Korean cities that are historically associated with elevated heat-related mortality. One unexpected result is the comparative severity of the very hot summer of 1994 in Korea, which actually eclipsed the 2003 analog. The persistence of the offensive air masses is considerably greater for the summer of 1994, as were dew point temperatures for a majority of the Korean cities. For all the Korean cities but one, the summer of 1994 is associated with more heat-related deaths than the analog summer, in some cases yielding a sixfold increase over deaths in an average summer. The Korean cities appear less sensitive to heat-related mortality problems during very hot summers than do large eastern and Midwestern US cities, possibly due to a lesser summer climate variation and efficient social services available during extreme heat episodes.

  4. Impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality risk across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

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    Moradkhani, H.; Ahmadalipour, A.

    2017-12-01

    It has been reported that even if the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2°C, warming over land will be far beyond that in many regions. Global climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and extreme high temperatures, which will in turn have severe impacts on human life. In this study, the mortality risk caused by excessive heat stress is investigated. Daily maximum air temperature and relative humidity are acquired from 17 CMIP5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) developed by CORDEX at 0.44 degree spatial resolution. Then, the daily wet-bulb temperature is calculated and a recently developed health risk model is implemented to quantify the mortality risk. The study is applied over the latitudes 6.6°S-42°N and longitudes 20°W-60°E covering parts of 70 countries and accommodating over 600 million inhabitants. The analysis is performed for the historical period of 1951-2005 as well as two future scenarios of RCP4.5 (moderate) and RCP8.5 (business as usual) during 2006-2100. Results indicate about 5 to 30 times higher mortality risk in distant future compared to the historical period. The most aggravation of mortality risk over land is found at the southwestern regions of MENA, due to substantial increase in frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures. Mortality risk is found to be much higher over open waters and coastal regions due to abundant humidity, especially in the coastal regions of the Red sea and Persian Gulf.

  5. The Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in six major cities, South Korea, under representative concentration pathways (RCPs

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    Youngmin eKim

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: We aimed to quantify the excess mortality associated with increased temperature due to climate change in six major Korean cities under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs which are new emission scenarios designed for the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Methods: We first examined the association between daily mean temperature and mortality in each during the summertime (June to September from 2001 to 2008. This was done using a generalized linear Poisson model with adjustment for a long-term time trend, relative humidity, air pollutants, and day of the week. We then computed heat-related mortality attributable to future climate change using estimated mortality risks, projected future populations, and temperature increments for both future years 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We considered effects from added days with high temperatures over thresholds and shifted effects from high to higher temperature.Results: Estimated excess all-cause mortalities for six cities in Korea ranged from 500 (95% CI: 313-703 for 2041-2070 to 2,320 (95% CI: 1,430-3,281 deaths per year for 2071-2100 under two RCPs. Excess cardiovascular mortality was estimated to range from 192 (95% CI: 41-351 to 896 (95% CI: 185-1,694 deaths per year, covering about 38.5% of all-cause excess mortality. Increased rates of heat-related mortality were higher in cities located at relatively lower latitude than cities with higher latitude. Estimated excess mortality under RCP 8.5, a fossil fuel-intensive emission scenario, was more than twice as high compared with RCP 4.5, low to medium emission scenario.Conclusions: Excess mortality due to climate change is expected to be profound in the future showing spatial variation. Efforts to mitigate climate change can cause substantial health benefits via reducing heat-related mortality.

  6. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

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    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  7. Raising Awareness on Heat Related Mortality in Bangladesh

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    Arrighi, J.; Burkart, K.; Nissan, H.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States and Europe, and was responsible for four of the ten deadliest natural disasters worldwide in 2015. Near the tropics, where hot weather is considered the norm, perceived heat risk is often low, but recent heat waves in South Asia have caught the attention of the health community, policy-makers and the public. In a recent collaboration between the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Columbia University and BBC Media Action the effects of extreme heat in Bangladesh were analyzed and the findings were subsequently used as a basis to raise awareness about the impacts of extreme heat on the most vulnerable, to the general public. Analysis of excess heat in Bangladesh between 2003 and 2007 showed that heatwaves occur between April and June with most extreme heat events occurring in May. Between 2003 and 2007 it is estimated that an average of 1500 people died per year due to heatwaves lasting three days or longer, with an eight-day heatwave in 2005 resulting in a minimum of 3,800 excess deaths. Utilizing these findings BBC Media Action launched an online communications campaign in May 2017 ultimately reaching approximately 3.9 million people with information on reducing the impacts of extreme heat. This presentation will highlight key findings from the study of heat related mortality in Bangladesh as well as highlight the benefit of collaboration between scientists and communicators for increasing awareness about the effects of extreme heat on the most vulnerable.

  8. Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities.

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    Stone, Brian; Vargo, Jason; Liu, Peng; Habeeb, Dana; DeLucia, Anthony; Trail, Marcus; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead

    2014-01-01

    Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.

  9. Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities.

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    Brian Stone

    Full Text Available Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1 climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2 local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.

  10. Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

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    Elisaveta P. Petkova

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

  11. Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

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    Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2014-01-01

    Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

  12. Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

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    Gerardo Sanchez Martinez

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. Methods After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5 and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026–2045 and 2081–2100, and in a past time period (1986–2005 to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. Results Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986–2005, heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026–2045, and more than quadruple in 2081–2100. When considering the impact in 2081–2100, sampling variability around the heat–mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. Conclusion These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

  13. Differences in Heat-Related Mortality by Citizenship Status: United States, 2005-2014.

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    Taylor, Ethel V; Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Flanders, W Dana; Murphy, Matthew; Spencer, Merianne; Noe, Rebecca S

    2018-04-01

    To determine whether non-US citizens have a higher mortality risk of heat-related deaths than do US citizens. We used place of residence reported in mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System from 2005 to 2014 as a proxy for citizenship to examine differences in heat-related deaths between non-US and US citizens. Estimates from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey of self-reported citizenship status and place of birth provided the numbers for the study population. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio and relative risk for heat-related deaths between non-US and US citizens nationally. Heat-related deaths accounted for 2.23% (n = 999) of deaths among non-US citizens and 0.02% (n = 4196) of deaths among US citizens. The age-adjusted standardized mortality ratio for non-US citizens compared with US citizens was 3.4 (95% confidence ratio [CI] = 3.2, 3.6). This risk was higher for Hispanic non-US citizens (risk ratio [RR] = 3.6; 95% CI = 3.2, 3.9) and non-US citizens aged 18 to 24 years (RR = 20.6; 95% CI = 16.5, 25.7). We found an increased mortality risk among non-US citizens compared with US citizens for heat-related deaths, especially those younger and of Hispanic ethnicity.

  14. Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

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    Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2017-08-16

    Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a ) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b ) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c ) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

  15. Urbanization Level and Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

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    Chen, Kai; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Ma, Zongwei; Liu, Yang; Huang, Lei; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

    2016-12-01

    Although adverse effects of high temperature on mortality have been studied extensively in urban areas, little is known of the heat-mortality associations outside of cities. We investigated whether heat-mortality associations differed between urban and nonurban areas and how urbanicity affected the vulnerability to heat-related mortality. We first analyzed heat-related mortality risk in each of 102 counties in Jiangsu Province, China, during 2009-2013 using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. The county-specific estimates were then pooled for more urban (percentage of urban population ≥ 57.11%) and less urban (percentage of urban population risk comparing the 99th vs. 75th percentiles of temperature was 1.43 [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.36, 1.50] in less urban counties and 1.26 (95% PI: 1.23, 1.30) in more urban counties. The heat effects on cardiorespiratory mortality followed a similar pattern. Higher education level and prevalence of air conditioning were significantly associated with counties having lower risks, whereas percentage of elderly people was significantly associated with increased risks. Our findings reveal that nonurban areas have significant heat-related mortality risks in Jiangsu, China. These results suggest the need for enhanced adaptation planning in Chinese nonurban areas under a changing climate. Citation: Chen K, Zhou L, Chen X, Ma Z, Liu Y, Huang L, Bi J, Kinney PL. 2016. Urbanization level and vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1863-1869; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP204.

  16. Temperature Observation Time and Type Influence Estimates of Heat-Related Mortality in Seven U.S. Cities.

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    Davis, Robert E; Hondula, David M; Patel, Anjali P

    2016-06-01

    Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of mortality in the United States, but little guidance is available regarding how temperature variable selection impacts heat-mortality relationships. We examined how the strength of the relationship between daily heat-related mortality and temperature varies as a function of temperature observation time, lag, and calculation method. Long time series of daily mortality counts and hourly temperature for seven U.S. cities with different climates were examined using a generalized additive model. The temperature effect was modeled separately for each hour of the day (with up to 3-day lags) along with different methods of calculating daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperature. We estimated the temperature effect on mortality for each variable by comparing the 99th versus 85th temperature percentiles, as determined from the annual time series. In three northern cities (Boston, MA; Philadelphia, PA; and Seattle, WA) that appeared to have the greatest sensitivity to heat, hourly estimates were consistent with a diurnal pattern in the heat-mortality response, with strongest associations for afternoon or maximum temperature at lag 0 (day of death) or afternoon and evening of lag 1 (day before death). In warmer, southern cities, stronger associations were found with morning temperatures, but overall the relationships were weaker. The strongest temperature-mortality relationships were associated with maximum temperature, although mean temperature results were comparable. There were systematic and substantial differences in the association between temperature and mortality based on the time and type of temperature observation. Because the strongest hourly temperature-mortality relationships were not always found at times typically associated with daily maximum temperatures, temperature variables should be selected independently for each study location. In general, heat-mortality was more closely coupled to afternoon and maximum

  17. Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

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    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Zhou, Maigeng; Liang, Xudong; Ban, Jie; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2016-06-01

    An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heat-related mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

  18. Aging Will Amplify the Heat-Related Mortality Risk Under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

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    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Zhou, Maigeng; Liang, Xudong; Ban, Jie; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2016-01-01

    An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heatrelated mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

  19. An ecological time-series study of heat-related mortality in three European cities

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    Russo Antonio

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Europe has experienced warmer summers in the past two decades and there is a need to describe the determinants of heat-related mortality to better inform public health activities during hot weather. We investigated the effect of high temperatures on daily mortality in three cities in Europe (Budapest, London, and Milan, using a standard approach. Methods An ecological time-series study of daily mortality was conducted in three cities using Poisson generalized linear models allowing for over-dispersion. Secular trends in mortality and seasonal confounding factors were controlled for using cubic smoothing splines of time. Heat exposure was modelled using average values of the temperature measure on the same day as death (lag 0 and the day before (lag 1. The heat effect was quantified assuming a linear increase in risk above a cut-point for each city. Socio-economic status indicators and census data were linked with mortality data for stratified analyses. Results The risk of heat-related death increased with age, and females had a greater risk than males in age groups ≥65 years in London and Milan. The relative risks of mortality (per °C above the heat cut-point by gender and age were: (i Male 1.10 (95%CI: 1.07–1.12 and Female 1.07 (1.05–1.10 for 75–84 years, (ii M 1.10 (1.06–1.14 and F 1.08 (1.06–1.11 for ≥85 years in Budapest (≥24°C; (i M 1.03 (1.01–1.04 and F 1.07 (1.05–1.09, (ii M 1.05 (1.03–1.07 and F 1.08 (1.07–1.10 in London (≥20°C; and (i M 1.08 (1.03–1.14 and F 1.20 (1.15–1.26, (ii M 1.18 (1.11–1.26 and F 1.19 (1.15–1.24 in Milan (≥26°C. Mortality from external causes increases at higher temperatures as well as that from respiratory and cardiovascular disease. There was no clear evidence of effect modification by socio-economic status in either Budapest or London, but there was a seemingly higher risk for affluent non-elderly adults in Milan. Conclusion We found broadly consistent

  20. Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

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    Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2016-01-01

    High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

  1. Social Interventions to Prevent Heat-Related Mortality in the Older Adult in Rome, Italy: A Quasi-Experimental Study

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    Inzerilli, Maria Chiara; Palombi, Leonardo; Madaro, Olga; Betti, Daniela; Marazzi, Maria Cristina

    2018-01-01

    This study focuses on the impact of a program aimed at reducing heat-related mortality among older adults residing in central Rome by counteracting social isolation. The mortality of citizens over the age of 75 living in three Urban Areas (UAs) located in central Rome is compared with that of the residents of four adjacent UAs during the summer of 2015. The data, broken down by UA, were provided by the Statistical Office of the Municipality of Rome, which gathers them on a routine basis. During the summer of 2015, 167 deaths were recorded in those UAs in which the Long Live the Elderly (LLE) program was active and 169 in those in which it was not, implying cumulative mortality rates of 25‰ (SD ± 1.4; Cl 95%: 23–29) and 29‰ (SD ± 6.7; Cl 95%: 17–43), respectively. Relative to the summer of 2014, the increase of deaths during the summer of 2015 was greater in UAs in which the LLE program had not been implemented (+97.3% vs. +48.8%). In conclusion, the paper shows the impact of a community-based active monitoring program, focused on strengthening individual relationship networks and the social capital of the community, on mortality in those over 75 during heat waves. PMID:29641436

  2. Spatial patterns of heat-related cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Urban, A.; Burkart, K.; Kyselý, J.; Schuster, Ch.; Plavcová, E.; Hanzlíková, Hana; Štěpánek, P.; Lakes, T.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 3 (2016), 284/1-284/19 ISSN 1660-4601 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : heat stress * mortality * spatial differences Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.101, year: 2016

  3. Evaluating heat-related mortality in Korea by objective classifications of 'air masses'

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kyselý, Jan; Huth, Radan; Kim, J.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 10 (2010), s. 1484-1501 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GC205/07/J044 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : weather type classifications * air masses * biometeorology * human mortality * South Korea Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.479, year: 2010

  4. Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Mavalankar, Dileep; Nori-Sarma, Amruta; Rajiva, Ajit; Dutta, Priya; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Knowlton, Kim; Hess, Jeremy J.; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Deol, Bhaskar; Bhaskar, Priya Shekhar; Hess, Jeremy; Jaiswal, Anjali; Khosla, Radhika; Knowlton, Kim; Mavalankar, Mavalankar; Rajiva, Ajit; Sarma, Amruta; Sheffield, Perry

    2014-01-01

    Introduction In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8°C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality. Methods We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1–31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations. Results The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths). In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest “summer” months of April (r = 0.69, pheat (May 19–25, 2010), mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67–1.83, pheat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June. PMID:24633076

  5. Spatial patterns of heat-related cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Urban, Aleš; Burkart, K.; Kyselý, Jan; Schuster, Ch.; Plavcová, Eva; Hanzlíková, Hana; Štěpánek, Petr; Lakes, T.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 3 (2016), č. článku 284. ISSN 1660-4601 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1985 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 ; RVO:67179843 Keywords : heat stress * mortality * socioeconomic status * spatial differences * cardiovascular disease Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology; DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology (UEK-B) Impact factor: 2.101, year: 2016 http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/3/284

  6. Estimating the Influence of Housing Energy Efficiency and Overheating Adaptations on Heat-Related Mortality in the West Midlands, UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathon Taylor

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Mortality rates rise during hot weather in England, and projected future increases in heatwave frequency and intensity require the development of heat protection measures such as the adaptation of housing to reduce indoor overheating. We apply a combined building physics and health model to dwellings in the West Midlands, UK, using an English Housing Survey (EHS-derived stock model. Regional temperature exposures, heat-related mortality risk, and space heating energy consumption were estimated for 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s medium emissions climates prior to and following heat mitigating, energy-efficiency, and occupant behaviour adaptations. Risk variation across adaptations, dwellings, and occupant types were assessed. Indoor temperatures were greatest in converted flats, while heat mortality rates were highest in bungalows due to the occupant age profiles. Full energy efficiency retrofit reduced regional domestic space heating energy use by 26% but increased summertime heat mortality 3–4%, while reduced façade absorptance decreased heat mortality 12–15% but increased energy consumption by 4%. External shutters provided the largest reduction in heat mortality (37–43%, while closed windows caused a large increase in risk (29–64%. Ensuring adequate post-retrofit ventilation, targeted installation of shutters, and ensuring operable windows in dwellings with heat-vulnerable occupants may save energy and significantly reduce heat-related mortality.

  7. Heat-related mortality in India: excess all-cause mortality associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad heat wave.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gulrez Shah Azhar

    Full Text Available In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8 °C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality.We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1-31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations.The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths. In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest "summer" months of April (r = 0.69, p<0.001, May (r = 0.77, p<0.001, and June (r = 0.39, p<0.05. During a period of more intense heat (May 19-25, 2010, mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67-1.83, p<0.001] and 2.12 [95% CI 2.03-2.21] applying reference periods (May 12-18, 2010 from various years.The May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June.

  8. Heat-Related Mortality Projections for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Disease Under the Changing Climate in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2015-01-01

    Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4 percent, 47.8 percent, and 69.0 percent in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6 percent, 73.8 percent and 134 percent in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP 8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

  9. Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2015-08-01

    Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

  10. Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

  11. Temperature and Heat-Related Mortality Trends in the Sonoran and Mojave Desert Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polioptro F. Martinez-Austria

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme temperatures and heat wave trends in five cities within the Sonoran Desert region (e.g., Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona, in the United States and Ciudad Obregon and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora; and Mexicali, Baja California, in Mexico and one city within the Mojave Desert region (e.g., Las Vegas, Nevada were assessed using field data collected from 1950 to 2014. Instead of being selected by watershed, the cities were selected because they are part of the same arid climatic region. The data were analyzed for maximum temperature increases and the trends were confirmed statistically using Spearman’s nonparametric test. Temperature trends were correlated with the mortality information related with extreme heat events in the region. The results showed a clear trend of increasing maximum temperatures during the months of June, July, and August for five of the six cities and statically confirmed using Spearman’s rho values. Las Vegas was the only city where the temperature increase was not confirmed using Spearman’s test, probably because it is geographically located outside of the Sonoran Desert or because of its proximity to the Hoover Dam. The relationship between mortality and temperature was analyzed for the cities of Mexicali, Mexico and Phoenix. Arizona.

  12. Modification of Heat-Related Mortality in an Elderly Urban Population by Vegetation (Urban Green) and Proximity to Water (Urban Blue): Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Meier, Fred; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Canário, Paulo; Alcoforado, Maria João; Scherer, Dieter; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2016-07-01

    Urban populations are highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of heat, with heat-related mortality showing intra-urban variations that are likely due to differences in urban characteristics and socioeconomic status. We investigated the influence of urban green and urban blue, that is, urban vegetation and water bodies, on heat-related excess mortality in the elderly > 65 years old in Lisbon, Portugal, between 1998 and 2008. We used remotely sensed data and geographic information to determine the amount of urban vegetation and the distance to bodies of water (the Atlantic Ocean and the Tagus Estuary). Poisson generalized additive models were fitted, allowing for the interaction between equivalent temperature [universal thermal climate index (UTCI)] and quartiles of urban greenness [classified using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)] and proximity to water (≤ 4 km vs. > 4 km), while adjusting for potential confounders. The association between mortality and a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile (24.8°C) was stronger for areas in the lowest NDVI quartile (14.7% higher; 95% CI: 1.9, 17.5%) than for areas in the highest quartile (3.0%; 95% CI: 2.0, 4.0%). In areas > 4 km from water, a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile was associated with a 7.1% increase in mortality (95% CI: 6.2, 8.1%), whereas in areas ≤ 4 km from water, the estimated increase in mortality was only 2.1% (95% CI: 1.2, 3.0%). Urban green and blue appeared to have a mitigating effect on heat-related mortality in the elderly population in Lisbon. Increasing the amount of vegetation may be a good strategy to counteract the adverse effects of heat in urban areas. Our findings also suggest potential benefits of urban blue that may be present several kilometers from a body of water. Burkart K, Meier F, Schneider A, Breitner S, Canário P, Alcoforado MJ, Scherer D, Endlicher W. 2016. Modification of heat-related mortality in an elderly urban population by

  13. The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Muthers

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden–Württemberg. With an additional mean summer mortality of +7.9% (2003 and +5.8% (2015 both years mark the top-two records of the summer mortality in the period 1968–2015. In each summer, one major heat wave contributed strongly to the excess summer mortality: In August 2003, daily mortality reached anomalies of +70% and in July 2015 maximum deviations of +56% were observed. The August 2003 heat wave was very long-lasting and characterized by exceptional high maximum and minimum temperatures. In July 2015, temperatures were slightly lower than in 2003, however, the high air humidity during the day and night, lead to comparable heat loads. Furthermore, the heat wave occurred earlier during the summer, when the population was less acclimated to heat stress. Using regional climate models we project an increasing probability for future 2003- and 2015-like heat waves already in the near future (2021–2050, with a 2015-like event occurring about every second summer. In the far future (2070–2099 pronounced increases with more than two 2015-like heat waves per summer are possible.

  14. Heat-Related Illnesses

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Share this! EmergencyCareForYou » Emergency 101 » Heat-Related Illnesses Heat-Related Illnesses Dr. Glenn Mitchell , Emergency physician at ... about heat cramps and heat stroke and exhaustion. Heat Cramps Symptoms include muscle spasms, usually in the ...

  15. Heat-Related Illnesses

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Share this! EmergencyCareForYou » Emergency 101 » Heat-Related Illnesses Heat-Related Illnesses Dr. Glenn Mitchell , Emergency physician at ... about heat cramps and heat stroke and exhaustion. Heat Cramps Symptoms include muscle spasms, usually in the ...

  16. Heat-Related Illnesses

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Your Wishes Visiting The ER Who Takes Care Of You In An Emergency? Checking Into ... Illnesses Dr. Glenn Mitchell , Emergency physician at Mercy Health System in Chesterfield, Missouri Heat-related illness can be ...

  17. Heat-Related Illnesses

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Health System in Chesterfield, Missouri Heat-related illness can be caused by overexposure to the sun or ... the elderly are most at risk, but anyone can be affected. Here you will find information about ...

  18. Heat-Related Illnesses

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... ICE” in Your Cell Phone Prepare for Disasters Communication With Your Family And Your Doctor About Your ... Dr. Glenn Mitchell , Emergency physician at Mercy Health System in Chesterfield, Missouri Heat-related illness can be ...

  19. An energy and mortality impact assessment of the urban heat island in the US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowe, Scott A.

    2016-01-01

    Increased summer energy use and increased summer heat related mortality are the two most cited detrimental impacts of the urban heat island (UHI). An assessment of these impacts was made that considered the annual impact of the UHI, not just the summer impact. It was found that in north of the US there was a net decrease in energy use from the UHI, as heating energy reductions were larger than the increase in cooling energy. In the south there was a net energy increase from the UHI. The impact of the UHI on heat related deaths was an estimated increase of 1.1 deaths per million people. The impact of the UHI on cold related deaths was an estimated decrease of 4.0 deaths per million people. These estimates are caveated by the acknowledgement that compounding factors influence mortality. Hypothermia related death rates were three times higher in rural areas than urban areas. This is surprising as the homeless population is usually considered the most at risk, yet they mostly live in urban areas. - Highlights: • The urban heat island (UHI) may actually be beneficial in colder cities in the US in terms of energy use • The UHI may cause an increase in heat related mortality of ~ 1 deaths per million • In winter the UHI may decrease cold related mortality by ~ 4 deaths per million • Cold related death rates were 3 times higher in rural areas although the homeless population live mainly in urban areas

  20. An energy and mortality impact assessment of the urban heat island in the US

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowe, Scott A., E-mail: Scott.lowe@manhattan.edu

    2016-01-15

    Increased summer energy use and increased summer heat related mortality are the two most cited detrimental impacts of the urban heat island (UHI). An assessment of these impacts was made that considered the annual impact of the UHI, not just the summer impact. It was found that in north of the US there was a net decrease in energy use from the UHI, as heating energy reductions were larger than the increase in cooling energy. In the south there was a net energy increase from the UHI. The impact of the UHI on heat related deaths was an estimated increase of 1.1 deaths per million people. The impact of the UHI on cold related deaths was an estimated decrease of 4.0 deaths per million people. These estimates are caveated by the acknowledgement that compounding factors influence mortality. Hypothermia related death rates were three times higher in rural areas than urban areas. This is surprising as the homeless population is usually considered the most at risk, yet they mostly live in urban areas. - Highlights: • The urban heat island (UHI) may actually be beneficial in colder cities in the US in terms of energy use • The UHI may cause an increase in heat related mortality of ~ 1 deaths per million • In winter the UHI may decrease cold related mortality by ~ 4 deaths per million • Cold related death rates were 3 times higher in rural areas although the homeless population live mainly in urban areas.

  1. Fine-scale spatial variability of heat-related mortality in Philadelphia County, USA, from 1983-2008: a case-series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hondula David M

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High temperature and humidity conditions are associated with short-term elevations in the mortality rate in many United States cities. Previous research has quantified this relationship in an aggregate manner over large metropolitan areas, but within these areas the response may differ based on local-scale variability in climate, population characteristics, and socio-economic factors. Methods We compared the mortality response for 48 Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs comprising Philadelphia County, PA to determine if certain areas are associated with elevated risk during high heat stress conditions. A randomization test was used to identify mortality exceedances for various apparent temperature thresholds at both the city and local scale. We then sought to identify the environmental, demographic, and social factors associated with high-risk areas via principal components regression. Results Citywide mortality increases by 9.3% on days following those with apparent temperatures over 34°C observed at 7:00 p.m. local time. During these conditions, elevated mortality rates were found for 10 of the 48 ZCTAs concentrated in the west-central portion of the County. Factors related to high heat mortality risk included proximity to locally high surface temperatures, low socioeconomic status, high density residential zoning, and age. Conclusions Within the larger Philadelphia metropolitan area, there exists statistically significant fine-scale spatial variability in the mortality response to high apparent temperatures. Future heat warning systems and mitigation and intervention measures could target these high risk areas to reduce the burden of extreme weather on summertime morbidity and mortality.

  2. Differences in heat-related mortality across four ecological regions with diverse urban, rural, and remote populations in British Columbia, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Sarah B; Wan, Victoria; Kosatsky, Tom

    2013-09-01

    Temperature-mortality analyses are challenging in rural and remote communities with small populations, but this information is needed for climate change and emergency planning. The geographic health areas of British Columbia, Canada were aggregated into four ecoregions delineated by microclimatic conditions. Time series models were used to estimate the effect of maximum apparent temperature on daily non-traumatic mortality. The population of the coldest ecoregion was most sensitive to hot weather, while the population of the hottest ecoregion was least sensitive. The effects were consistently strongest in decedents aged less than 75 years. A province-wide total of 815 deaths was attributed to hot weather over the 25-year study period, with 735 deaths in the most populous ecoregion. The framework described could be adapted to other climatically variable regions with urban, rural, and remote populations. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

    2005-01-01

    During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

  4. Impacts of the 2015 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic-a comparison with previous heat waves

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Urban, A.; Hanzlíková, Hana; Kyselý, J.; Plavcová, E.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 12 (2017), č. článku 1562. ISSN 1660-4601 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : heat-related mortality * heat-wave * excess heat factor * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 2.101, year: 2016

  5. Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Urban, A.; Hanzlíková, H.; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, E.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 12 (2017), č. článku 1452. ISSN 1660-4601 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : heat-related mortality * heat-wave * excess heat factor * Central Europe Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 2.101, year: 2016

  6. Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic: adaptation to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

    2010-05-01

    Extreme temperature events have pronounced negative impacts on ecosystems and society, including human health effects. The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (central Europe) during 1986-2006. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in summer as well as in transition seasons, in spite of rising temperature trends (warming by 1.4 deg. C in summer over the 21-year period). The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that influence vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.

  7. Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest

  8. Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Lesk, Corey; Bader, Daniel; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

  9. A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Jay S.; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick

    2008-07-01

    Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003—surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5°C (96°F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8°C (93°F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001 2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

  10. Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

    2017-07-05

    Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

  11. Impact of Training traditional birth attendants on maternal mortality ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impact of Training traditional birth attendants on maternal mortality and ... with focus on reducing the high rate of maternal and new-born mortality in rural settings in ... What is needed is to identify TBAs, map their distribution and train them on ...

  12. Impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy on hospital mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Wilde, R. F.; Besselink, M. G. H.; van der Tweel, I.; de Hingh, I. H. J. T.; van Eijck, C. H. J.; Dejong, C. H. C.; Porte, R. J.; Gouma, D. J.; Busch, O. R. C.; Molenaar, I. Q.

    Background: The impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) on mortality is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in hospital volumes and in-hospital mortality after PD in the Netherlands between 2004 and 2009. Methods: Nationwide data on International

  13. Impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy on hospital mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Wilde, R. F.; Besselink, M. G. H.; van der Tweel, I.; de Hingh, I. H. J. T.; van Eijck, C. H. J.; Dejong, C. H. C.; Porte, R. J.; Gouma, D. J.; Busch, O. R. C.; Molenaar, I. Q.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) on mortality is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in hospital volumes and in-hospital mortality after PD in the Netherlands between 2004 and 2009. Methods: Nationwide data on International

  14. Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower income settings. METHODS: We analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile including detailed age-specific mortality data from a large city...... with high baseline mortality (R2=41.8%; P=0.02), but not with latitude (P>0.7). Excess mortality rates increased sharply with age. Transmissibility declined from R=1.4-2.1 to R=1.2-1.4 between the two pandemic waves. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated A/H2N2 mortality burden in Chile is the highest on record...... for this pandemic - about 3-5 times as severe as that experienced in wealthier nations. The global impact of this pandemic may be substantially underestimated from previous studies based on high-income countries....

  15. Global Mortality Impact of the 1957-1959 Influenza Pandemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics. METHODS: We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background...... levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic. RESULTS: The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10,000 population (95...... excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million-1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957-1959 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The global mortality rate of the 1957-1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact...

  16. Heat-related illness in China, summer of 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Shaohua; Huang, Cunrui; Bai, Li; Chu, Cordia; Liu, Qiyong

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat events have occurred more frequently in China in recent years, leading to serious impacts on human life and the health care system. To identify the characteristics of individuals with heat-related illnesses in China during the summer of 2013, we collected the data from the Heat-related Illness Surveillance System in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). A total of 5758 cases were reported in the summer of 2013, mostly concentrated in urban areas around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. We found a difference in age distribution of percentage of deaths from heat-related illness between males and females. Severe cases in males mostly occurred in the age group 45-74 years but in females mostly in the age group over 75. A distributed lag non-linear model had been used to identify population vulnerabilities in Ningbo and Chongqing. The results show that there was a clear positive relationship between maximum temperature and heat-related illness, and the heat effect was nonlinear and could last for 3 days. The elderly and males in the range of 45-64 years old might be the most vulnerable people of heat-related illness in China. We also highlighted some deficiencies of the surveillance system, such that the reported data were not accurate, comprehensive, or timely enough at this stage.

  17. Impact of the Grameen Bank on childhood mortality in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, M; Davanzo, J; Sutradhar, S C

    1996-01-01

    The Grameen Bank (GB) is a highly innovative and well-supervised credit program for the rural poor in Bangladesh. About 95% of over 2 million participants are women. GB can positively affect child survival among its participants through its income-generation and consciousness-raising activities. The study examines if GB influences childhood mortality among its participants. An integrated family life survey was carried out during 1993-94 among about 2500 married women in landless households who are eligible for membership in GB. The survey was carried out among randomly selected married women regardless of GB membership in 3 thanas of Tangail district and 1 thana of Mymensingh district. The study permits an analysis in a "before-after" and "treatment-comparison" framework for measuring the impact of GB on childhood mortality. Estimation was done through proportional hazards models, where the effects of confounding factors like calendar year, maternal age, parity, maternal education, economic conditions, and areal variation were controlled for. There was a 34% and significant reduction in childhood (under-5) mortality after the mothers joined the GB. Similar effects of other NGOs on childhood mortality were also observed. Childhood mortality was similar between the GB members before joining the Bank and never-members, indicating that the GB members were not from a selective group. Childhood mortality was 21% and significantly lower among women who worked for income generation than those women who did not work. Income generation and social development programs modeled after the GB and other NGOs can reduce childhood mortality in Bangladesh and similar settings.

  18. Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Urban, Aleš; Hanzlíková, Hana; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 12 (2017), č. článku 1562. ISSN 1660-4601 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-22000S Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) MSM100421604 Program:Program na podporu mezinárodní spolupráce začínajících výzkumných pracovníků Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : heat-related mortality * heat-wave * excess heat factor * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 2.101, year: 2016 http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/14/12/1562

  19. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CALF MORTALITY ON DAIRY FARMS IN KUWAIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. RAZZAQUE, M. BEDAIR, S. ABBAS AND T. AL-MUTAWA

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective of this study was to investigate the economic impact of mortality of pre-weaned calves on dairy cattle enterprise in Kuwait. Cost/benefit analysis model was applied to two different situations: in the first situation, a baseline scenario, field survey data without intervention using 1,280 newborn calves was used in first calving season. In the second situation, the intervention scenario (improved management, 665 newborn calves were used in second calving season during the following year. Calving seasons extended for 7 months from September to March. Calf performance studies were conducted from birth to weaning. Economic model was constructed on Microsoft Excel and used to evaluate the impact of calf mortality on calf enterprise. Results showed that gross margins increased from 13 to 35% as a result of implementation of intervention measures during the second calving season over baseline scenario. A significant correlation between increased veterinary expenses and an increase in revenues (r2 = 0.65, P<0.05 was observed. If the intervention measures such as colostrum feeding, nutrition and hygiene had not been implemented, the farms would have lose income from 12 to 51% of the gross revenues. Net income was influenced by costs of feeds, veterinary services and laborers. Discounted cash flow studies on a whole farm basis revealed that the impact of interventions was small (0-3%. Calf mortality could not be isolated from whole farm for assessing its impact on dairy farm economics. Economic studies demonstrated the cost/benefits of using the improved techniques of calf rearing.

  20. Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice; Fournier, Michel; Zayed, Joseph; Labrèche, France

    2014-01-01

    Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures in 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in

  1. Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adam-Poupart, Ariane [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Smargiassi, Audrey [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), Montreal, QC (Canada); Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice [Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada); Fournier, Michel [Direction de santé publique, Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Zayed, Joseph [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada); Labrèche, France, E-mail: labreche.france@irsst.qc.ca [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2014-10-15

    Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures in 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in

  2. Nonlinear Impact of Temperature on Mortality in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, A. T.

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is posing unprecedented challenges to human welfare, yet there is much uncertainty about the cost of its impact. Accurate quantification of the social cost of carbon is crucial for designing effective climate policies that reduce emissions and mitigate the adverse impact of global warming, and human health is an important component of the calculation. Despite a growing body of literature documenting the relationship between temperature and mortality in the U.S., similar results using nationwide data have not been clearly established in other countries. Using random monthly variations in temperature for over a decade, this paper finds a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between monthly mortality rate and daily temperature in France between 1998 and 2012. Extremely hot days are associated with significantly higher mortality rates: One additional day with a mean temperature above 30°C, relative to a day in the 12°C to 15°C range, leads to 10 extra all-age, all-gender monthly deaths per 100,000. The effect of cold temperatures is milder: An extremely cold day with an average temperature from -9 °C to -6 °C increases all-age, all-gender mortality rate by about 1.2 per 100,000 each month. There is also notable heterogeneity in the observed nonlinear relationship across age groups and gender, in which males and the elderly are generally more susceptible to extreme temperatures than females and the young. This highlights that children and youth may be well protected through adaptive behaviors, such as spending more time indoors in temperature-controlled rooms and staying hydrated. Compared to studies done in the U.S., extremely hot days >30°C leads to considerably more deaths in France. Preliminary evidence suggests that there has been very limited adaptation despite two prominent heat waves in 2003 and 2006, although further analysis of electricity consumption and air conditioning usage is needed to ascertain the extent to

  3. The impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in the Greater Metropolitan Sydney Region: a case crossover analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Leigh Ann; Morgan, Geoffrey Gerard; Hanigan, Ivan Charles; Johnston, Fay H; Abu-Rayya, Hisham; Broome, Richard; Gaskin, Clive; Jalaludin, Bin

    2013-11-15

    This study examined the association between unusually high temperature and daily mortality (1997-2007) and hospital admissions (1997-2010) in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) to assist in the development of targeted health programs designed to minimise the public health impact of extreme heat. Sydney GMR was categorized into five climate zones. Heat-events were defined as severe or extreme. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design with a conditional logistic regression model we adjusted for influenza epidemics, public holidays, and climate zone. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for associations between daily mortality and hospital admissions with heat-event days compared to non-heat event days for single and three day heat-events. All-cause mortality overall had similar magnitude associations with single day and three day extreme and severe events as did all cardiovascular mortality. Respiratory mortality was associated with single day and three day severe events (95th percentile, lag0: OR = 1.14; 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.24). Diabetes mortality had similar magnitude associations with single day and three day severe events (95th percentile, lag0: OR = 1.22; 95%CI: 1.03 to 1.46) but was not associated with extreme events. Hospital admissions for heat related injuries, dehydration, and other fluid disorders were associated with single day and three day extreme and severe events. Contrary to our findings for mortality, we found inconsistent and sometimes inverse associations for extreme and severe events with cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease hospital admissions. Controlling for air pollutants did not influence the mortality associations but reduced the magnitude of the associations with hospital admissions particularly for ozone and respiratory disease. Single and three day events of unusually high temperatures in Sydney are associated with similar magnitude increases in mortality and hospital admissions. The trend

  4. [Smoking impact on mortality in Spain in 2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Abejón, Eduardo; Rejas-Gutiérrez, Javier; Criado-Espegel, Paloma; Campo-Ortega, Eva P; Breñas-Villalón, María T; Martín-Sobrino, Nieves

    2015-12-21

    Smoking is an important public health problem, and is one of the main avoidable causes of morbidity and early mortality. The aim was to estimate the mortality attributable to smoking and its impact on premature mortality in Spain in the year 2012. Descriptive, cross-sectional study, carried out on the Spanish population aged ≥ 18 years in 2012. The prevalence of smoking by age and sex was obtained from the National Health Survey 2011-2012, and the number of deaths by age, sex and cause was obtained from the vital statistics of the National Institute of Statistics. The proportion of deaths attributable to smoking was calculated according to sex and age group, from the etiological fraction of the population. Likewise, loss of potential years of life lost (PYLL) and the mean potential years of life lost (MPYLL) were also calculated. In 2012, smoking caused 60,456 deaths which accounted for 15.23% of all deaths. Trachea-bronchial-lung cancer in men and other cardiopathies in women mostly contributed to this mortality. The PYLL were 184,426, and the MPYLL were 3.25 years in men and 2.42 years in women. In 2012, every day, 125 men and 40 women die from smoking-related conditions. The smoking prevalence has diminished in comparison with previous years and the number and percentage of deaths attributable to the smoking have increased in the last 20 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Valuing mortality impacts of smoke exposure from major southern California wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikuho Kochi; Patricia A. Champ; John B. Loomis; Geoffrey H. Donovan

    2012-01-01

    While the mortality impacts of urban air pollution have been well addressed in the literature, very little is known about the mortality impacts and associated social cost from wildfire-smoke exposure (Kochi et al., 2010; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004). In an attempt to address this knowledge gap, we estimate the social cost associated with excess mortality...

  6. Economic impact of reduced mortality due to increased cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutter, Harry; Cavill, Nick; Racioppi, Francesca; Dinsdale, Hywell; Oja, Pekka; Kahlmeier, Sonja

    2013-01-01

    Increasing regular physical activity is a key public health goal. One strategy is to change the physical environment to encourage walking and cycling, requiring partnerships with the transport and urban planning sectors. Economic evaluation is an important factor in the decision to fund any new transport scheme, but techniques for assessing the economic value of the health benefits of cycling and walking have tended to be less sophisticated than the approaches used for assessing other benefits. This study aimed to produce a practical tool for estimating the economic impact of reduced mortality due to increased cycling. The tool was intended to be transparent, easy to use, reliable, and based on conservative assumptions and default values, which can be used in the absence of local data. It addressed the question: For a given volume of cycling within a defined population, what is the economic value of the health benefits? The authors used published estimates of relative risk of all-cause mortality among regular cyclists and applied these to levels of cycling defined by the user to produce an estimate of the number of deaths potentially averted because of regular cycling. The tool then calculates the economic value of the deaths averted using the "value of a statistical life." The outputs of the tool support decision making on cycle infrastructure or policies, or can be used as part of an integrated economic appraisal. The tool's unique contribution is that it takes a public health approach to a transport problem, addresses it in epidemiologic terms, and places the results back into the transport context. Examples of its use include its adoption by the English and Swedish departments of transport as the recommended methodologic approach for estimating the health impact of walking and cycling. Copyright © 2013 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Heat-related illness in the African wilderness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Wilderness heat-related illnesses span a continuum of medical problems caused by ... of modern science, clothing technology, and an understanding of physiology ..... guidelines for wilderness emergency care, heat-related illnesses, and EAH ...

  8. Impact of diabetes and smoking on mortality in tuberculosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George W Reed

    Full Text Available Diabetes mellitus is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB disease. There is evidence that diabetes also influences TB severity and treatment outcomes but information is incomplete and some published results have been inconsistent.A longitudinal cohort study was conducted at the National Masan Tuberculosis Hospital in the Republic of Korea. Subjects presenting with a first episode of TB or for retreatment of TB were followed from enrollment through completion of treatment. Demographic, clinical, and microbiological variables were recorded, along with assessment of outcomes. Results were compared in TB patients with and without diabetes or smoking history. Data were adjusted for gender, age, cohort, educational level and alcohol consumption.The combined cohorts comprised 657 subjects. Diabetes was present in 25% and was associated with greater radiographic severity and with recurrent or relapsed TB. Diabetes and cigarette smoking independently increased the risk of death in the first 12 months after enrollment. Estimating the combined impact of diabetes and smoking yielded a hazard ratio of 5.78. Only 20% of diabetic subjects were non-smokers; 54% smoked ≥1 pack daily. In this cohort, the impact of diabetes on mortality was greater in patients younger than 50 years, compared to older patients.In this cohort of Korean patients, diabetes exacerbated the severity of TB disease. Diabetic subjects who smoked ≥1 pack of cigarettes daily were at particularly high risk of death from TB. Strategies to improve TB outcomes could productively focus resources for patient education and TB prevention on the vulnerable population of younger diabetics, particularly those who also smoke.

  9. The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huynen, M. M.; Martens, P.; Schram, D.; Weijenberg, M. P.; Kunst, A. E.

    2001-01-01

    We conducted the study described in this paper to investigate the impact of ambient temperature on mortality in the Netherlands during 1979-1997, the impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in particular, and the possibility of any heat wave- or cold spell-induced forward displacement of

  10. The impact of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broeders, Mireille; Moss, Sue; Nyström, Lennarth

    2012-01-01

    To assess the impact of population-based mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in Europe, considering different methodologies and limitations of the data.......To assess the impact of population-based mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in Europe, considering different methodologies and limitations of the data....

  11. Impact of two recent extreme heat episodes on morbidity and mortality in Adelaide, South Australia: a case-series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams Susan

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Extreme heatwaves occurred in Adelaide, South Australia, in the summers of 2008 and 2009. Both heatwaves were unique in terms of their duration (15 days and 13 days respectively, and the 2009 heatwave was also remarkable in its intensity with a maximum temperature reaching 45.7°C. It is of interest to compare the health impacts of these two unprecedented heatwaves with those of previous heatwaves in Adelaide. Methods Using case-series analysis, daily morbidity and mortality rates during heatwaves (≥35°C for three or more days occurring in 2008 and 2009 and previous heatwaves occurring between 1993 and 2008 were compared with rates during all non-heatwave days (1 October to 31 March. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs were established for ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and mortality. Dose response effects of heatwave duration and intensity were examined. Results Ambulance call-outs during the extreme 2008 and 2009 events were increased by 10% and 16% respectively compared to 4.4% during previous heatwaves. Overall increases in hospital and emergency settings were marginal, except for emergency department presentations in 2008, but increases in specific health categories were observed. Renal morbidity in the elderly was increased during both heatwaves. During the 2009 heatwave, direct heat-related admissions increased up to 14-fold compared to a three-fold increase seen during the 2008 event and during previous heatwaves. In 2009, marked increases in ischaemic heart disease were seen in the 15-64 year age group. Only the 2009 heatwave was associated with considerable increases in total mortality that particularly affected the 15-64 year age group (1.37; 95% CI, 1.09, 1.71, while older age groups were unaffected. Significant dose-response relationships were observed for heatwave duration (ambulance, hospital and emergency setting and intensity (ambulance and mortality. Conclusions While

  12. Heat-Related Illness among Oregon Farmworkers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey W. Bethel

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Farmworkers are particularly vulnerable to climate-sensitive health outcomes such as heat-related illness (HRI given their tasks involve heavy exertion in an outdoor setting. The objectives of the study were to: (1 describe symptoms of HRI experienced by farmworkers and (2 explore factors associated with heat knowledge, level of concern regarding HRI, and comfort level taking breaks at work. Bilingual research staff conducted personal interviews of 100 farmworkers during July and August 2013. Data collected included demographics, work history and current work practices, trainings received, HRI symptoms experienced, health status, and health behaviors. Nearly 30% of participants reported experiencing ≥2 HRI symptoms during the previous work. Few participants had high level of heat knowledge (21.0% and 15.6% of participants reported being “very concerned” about the health effects of working in hot conditions. Participants who were paid by the piece were more likely to have a high heat knowledge score and be “very concerned” about HRI but less likely to be “very comfortable” taking a break compared to workers paid by the hour than those who had not received HRI training. Results suggest several areas in which employers and agencies conducting outreach and education to the workers about HRI can change their practices including providing cooling measures and HRI training about risk factors for HRI.

  13. The impact of profitability of hospital admissions on mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindrooth, Richard C; Konetzka, R Tamara; Navathe, Amol S; Zhu, Jingsan; Chen, Wei; Volpp, Kevin

    2013-04-01

    Fiscal constraints faced by Medicare are leading to policies designed to reduce expenditures. Evidence of the effect of reduced reimbursement on the mortality of Medicare patients discharged from all major hospital service lines is limited. We modeled risk-adjusted 30-day mortality of patients discharged from 21 hospital service lines as a function of service line profitability, service line time trends, and hospital service line and year-fixed effects. We simulated the effect of alternative revenue-neutral reimbursement policies on mortality. Our sample included all Medicare discharges from PPS-eligible hospitals (1997, 2001, and 2005). The results reveal a statistically significant inverse relationship between changes in profitability and mortality. A $0.19 average reduction in profit per $1.00 of costs led to a 0.010-0.020 percentage-point increase in mortality rates (p profitable. Policy simulations that target service line inequities in payment generosity result in lower mortality rates, roughly 700-13,000 fewer deaths nationally. The policy simulations raise questions about the trade-offs implicit in universal reductions in reimbursement. The effect of reduced payment generosity on mortality could be mitigated by targeting highly profitable services only for lower reimbursement. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  14. The Impact of Profitability of Hospital Admissions on Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindrooth, Richard C; Konetzka, R Tamara; Navathe, Amol S; Zhu, Jingsan; Chen, Wei; Volpp, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Background Fiscal constraints faced by Medicare are leading to policies designed to reduce expenditures. Evidence of the effect of reduced reimbursement on the mortality of Medicare patients discharged from all major hospital service lines is limited. Methods We modeled risk-adjusted 30-day mortality of patients discharged from 21 hospital service lines as a function of service line profitability, service line time trends, and hospital service line and year-fixed effects. We simulated the effect of alternative revenue-neutral reimbursement policies on mortality. Our sample included all Medicare discharges from PPS-eligible hospitals (1997, 2001, and 2005). Results The results reveal a statistically significant inverse relationship between changes in profitability and mortality. A $0.19 average reduction in profit per $1.00 of costs led to a 0.010–0.020 percentage-point increase in mortality rates (p payment generosity than in service lines that remain profitable. Policy simulations that target service line inequities in payment generosity result in lower mortality rates, roughly 700–13,000 fewer deaths nationally. Conclusions The policy simulations raise questions about the trade-offs implicit in universal reductions in reimbursement. The effect of reduced payment generosity on mortality could be mitigated by targeting highly profitable services only for lower reimbursement. PMID:23346946

  15. Impact of influenza vaccination on mortality risk among the elderly

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenwold, R. H. H.; Hoes, A. W.; Hak, E.

    Estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness have mostly been derived from nonrandomised studies and therefore are potentially confounded. The aim of the current study was to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing mortality among the elderly, taking both measured and unmeasured

  16. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observeddata. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results variedby region . Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1 .6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.628.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. In this study we evaluate changes in ozone related mortality due to changes in biogenic f

  17. The Impact of Bluetongue on Rumminants Mortality. (Bovine and Ovine)

    OpenAIRE

    NZUONKWELLE, Nzumenang

    2008-01-01

    Bluetongue is a disease of sheep, but cattle are the principal vertebrate reservoirs of the virus. Once established, "it is impossible to actively eradicate bluetongue virus". The virus will circulate, generally subclinically, in cattle and other ruminants, and in midges. The objective of this study was to examine the correlation between the bluetongue incidence data(2006) and the mortality data(2006). To achieve the main objective of this report, the difference in the 2006 mortality and mean...

  18. Impacts of Austrian Climate Variability on Honey Bee Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matt; Brodschneider, Robert; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo

    2015-04-01

    Global food production, as it is today, is not possible without pollinators such as the honey bee. It is therefore alarming that honey bee populations across the world have seen increased mortality rates in the last few decades. The challenges facing the honey bee calls into question the future of our food supply. Beside various infectious diseases, Varroa destructor is one of the main culprits leading to increased rates of honey bee mortality. Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite which strongly depends on honey bee brood for reproduction and can wipe out entire colonies. However, climate variability may also importantly influence honey bee breeding cycles and bee mortality rates. Persistent weather events affects vegetation and hence foraging possibilities for honey bees. This study first defines critical statistical relationships between key climate indicators (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and bee mortality rates across Austria, using 6 consecutive years of data. Next, these leading indicators, as they vary in space and time, are used to build a statistical model to predict bee mortality rates and the respective number of colonies affected. Using leave-one-out cross validation, the model reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 21% with respect to predictions made with the mean mortality rate and the number of colonies. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo test is used to establish that the model's predictions are statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. These results highlight the influence of climate variables on honey bee populations, although variability in climate, by itself, cannot fully explain colony losses. This study was funded by the Austrian project 'Zukunft Biene'.

  19. The impact of specialist trauma service on major trauma mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ting Hway; Lumsdaine, William; Hardy, Benjamin M; Lee, Keegan; Balogh, Zsolt J

    2013-03-01

    Trauma services throughout the world have had positive effects on trauma-related mortality. Australian trauma services are generally more consultative in nature rather than the North American model of full trauma admission service. We hypothesized that the introduction of a consultative specialist trauma service in a Level I Australian trauma center would reduce mortality of the severely injured. A 10-year retrospective study (January 1, 2002-December 31, 2011) was performed on all trauma patients admitted with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 15. Patients were identified from the trauma registry, and data for age, sex, mechanism of injury, ISS, survival to discharge, and length of stay were collected. Mortality was examined for patients with severe injury (ISS > 15) and patients with critical injury (ISS > 24) and compared for the three periods: 2002-2004 (without trauma specialist), 2005-2007 (with trauma specialist), and 2008-2011 (with specialist trauma service). A total of 3,869 severely injured (ISS > 15) trauma patients were identified during the 10-year period. Of these, 2,826 (73%) were male, 1,513 (39%) were critically injured (ISS > 24), and more than 97% (3,754) were the victim of blunt trauma. Overall mortality decreased from 12.4% to 9.3% (relative risk, 0.75) from period one to period three and from 25.4% to 20.3% (relative risk, 0.80) for patients with critical injury. A 0.46% per year decrease (p = 0.018) in mortality was detected (odds ratio, 0.63; p 24), the trend was (0.61% per year; odds ratio, 0.68; p = 0.039). The introduction of a specialist trauma service decreased the mortality of patients with severe injury, the model of care should be considered to implement state- and nationwide in Australia. Epidemiologic study, level III.

  20. Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

  1. Psychiatry Morbidity and Mortality Rounds: Implementation and Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, Stuart; Demaso, David R.; Kemler, Beth

    2009-01-01

    Objective: This study assessed the implementation of psychiatry morbidity and mortality rounds (M&Ms) on the clinical and educational practice in a children's hospital. Methods: Attendees to monthly M&Ms between July 2005 and May 2007 included staff and trainees from psychiatry, psychology, nursing, and social work. Cases were selected based on a…

  2. The impact of socioeconomic status and multimorbidity on mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Nikoline; Pedersen, Henrik Søndergaard; Vestergaard, Mogens

    2017-01-01

    educational level and mortality, and to what extent MM modifies this association. METHODS: We followed 239,547 individuals invited to participate in the Danish National Health Survey 2010 (mean follow-up time: 3.8 years). MM was assessed by using information on drug prescriptions and diagnoses for 39 long...

  3. The impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wenjuan; Yang, Chunxue; Chu, Chen; Li, Tiantian; Tan, Jianguo; Kan, Haidong

    2013-01-01

    No prior studies in China have investigated the health impact of cold spell. In Shanghai, we defined the cold spell as a period of at least seven consecutive days with daily temperature below the third percentile during the study period (2001-2009). Between January 2001 and December 2009, we identified a cold spell between January 27 and February 3, 2008 in Shanghai. We investigated the impact of cold spell on mortality of the residents living in the nine urban districts of Shanghai. We calculated the excess deaths and rate ratios (RRs) during the cold spell and compared these data with a winter reference period (January 6-9, and February 28 to March 2). The number of excess deaths during the cold spell period was 153 in our study population. The cold spell caused a short-term increase in total mortality of 13 % (95 % CI: 7-19 %). The impact was statistically significant for cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.21, 95 % CI: 1.12-1.31), but not for respiratory mortality (RR = 1.14, 95 % CI: 0.98-1.32). For total mortality, gender did not make a statistically significant difference for the cold spell impact. Cold spell had a significant impact on mortality in elderly people (over 65 years), but not in other age groups. Conclusively, our analysis showed that the 2008 cold spell had a substantial effect on mortality in Shanghai. Public health programs should be tailored to prevent cold-spell-related health problems in the city.

  4. Impact of Social Capital on 8-year Mortality Among Older People in 34 Danish Municipalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Tine; Siersma, Volkert Dirk; Christensen, Ulla

    2012-01-01

    To analyze the impact of social capital measures (bonding, bridging, and linking) on all-cause mortality at 8-year follow-up among older people aged 75 and 80 at baseline.......To analyze the impact of social capital measures (bonding, bridging, and linking) on all-cause mortality at 8-year follow-up among older people aged 75 and 80 at baseline....

  5. IMPACT OF WATER PH ON ZEBRA MUSSEL MORTALITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molloy, Daniel P.

    2002-01-01

    The experiments conducted this past quarter have suggested that the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens strain CL0145A is effective at killing zebra mussels throughout the entire range of pH values tested (7.2 to 8.6). Highest mortality was achieved at pH values characteristic of preferred zebra mussel waterbodies, i.e., hard waters with a range of 7.8 to 8.6. In all water types tested, however, ranging from very soft to very hard, considerable mussel kill was achieved (83 to 99% mean mortality), suggesting that regardless of the pH or hardness of the treated water, significant mussel kill can be achieved upon treatment with P. fluorescens strain CL0145A. These results further support the concept that this bacterium has significant potential for use as a zebra mussel control agent in power plant pipes receiving waters with a wide range of physical and chemical characteristics

  6. IMPACT OF WATER PH ON ZEBRA MUSSEL MORTALITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniel P. Molloy

    2002-10-15

    The experiments conducted this past quarter have suggested that the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens strain CL0145A is effective at killing zebra mussels throughout the entire range of pH values tested (7.2 to 8.6). Highest mortality was achieved at pH values characteristic of preferred zebra mussel waterbodies, i.e., hard waters with a range of 7.8 to 8.6. In all water types tested, however, ranging from very soft to very hard, considerable mussel kill was achieved (83 to 99% mean mortality), suggesting that regardless of the pH or hardness of the treated water, significant mussel kill can be achieved upon treatment with P. fluorescens strain CL0145A. These results further support the concept that this bacterium has significant potential for use as a zebra mussel control agent in power plant pipes receiving waters with a wide range of physical and chemical characteristics.

  7. Gender impacts mortality after traumatic brain injury in teenagers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ley, Eric J; Short, Scott S; Liou, Douglas Z; Singer, Matthew B; Mirocha, James; Melo, Nicolas; Bukur, Marko; Salim, Ali

    2013-10-01

    Gender may influence outcomes following traumatic brain injury (TBI) although the mechanism is unknown. Animal TBI studies suggest that gender differences in endogenous hormone production may be the source. Limited retrospective clinical studies on gender present varied conclusions. Pediatric patients represent a unique population as pubescent children experience up-regulation of endogenous hormones that varies dramatically by gender. Younger children do not have these hormonal differences. The aim of this study was to compare pubescent and prepubescent females with males after isolated TBI to identify independent predictors of mortality. We performed a retrospective review of the National Trauma Data Bank Research Data Sets from 2007 and 2008 looking at all blunt trauma patients 18 years or younger who required hospital admission after isolated, moderate-to-severe TBI, defined as head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score 3 or greater. We excluded all individuals with AIS score of 3 or greater for any other region to limit the confounding effect of comorbidities. Based on the median age of menarche, we defined two age groups as follows: prepubescent (0-12 years) and pubescent (>12 years). Analysis was performed to compare trauma profiles and outcomes between groups. Our primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. A total of 20,280 patients met inclusion criteria; 10,135 were prepubescent, and 10,145 were pubescent. Overall mortality was 6.9%, and lower mortality was noted among prepubescent patients compared with pubescent (5.2% vs. 8.6%, p Endogenous hormonal differences may be a contributing factor and require further investigation. Prognostic study, level III.

  8. Assessing the impact of power plant mortality on the compensatory reserve of fish populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, C.P.

    1977-01-01

    A technique is presented to quantify the concepts of compensation and compensatory reserve in exploited fish populations. The technique was used to examine the impact of power plant mortality on a hypothetical striped bass population. Power plant mortality had a more severe impact on the compensation ratio and compensatory reserve for an exploited stock. The technique can be applied to determine a critical compensation ratio which could serve as a standard against which additional sources of mortality, such as those caused by power plants, could be measured

  9. Dialyzer Reuse with Peracetic Acid Does Not Impact Patient Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, T. Christopher; Krishnan, Mahesh; Wilson, Steven M.; Mayne, Tracy

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background and objectives Numerous studies have shown the overall benefits of dialysis filter reuse, including superior biocompatibility and decreased nonbiodegradable medical waste generation, without increased risk of mortality. A recent study reported that dialyzer reprocessing was associated with decreased patient survival; however, it did not control for sources of potential confounding. We sought to determine the effect of dialyzer reprocessing with peracetic acid on patient mortality using contemporary outcomes data and rigorous analytical techniques. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We conducted a series of analyses of hemodialysis patients examining the effects of reuse on mortality using three techniques to control for potential confounding: instrumental variables, propensity-score matching, and time-dependent survival analysis. Results In the instrumental variables analysis, patients at high reuse centers had 16.2 versus 15.9 deaths/100 patient-years in nonreuse centers. In the propensity-score matched analysis, patients with reuse had a lower death rate per 100 patient-years than those without reuse (15.2 versus 15.5). The risk ratios for the time-dependent survival analyses were 0.993 (per percent of sessions with reuse) and 0.995 (per unit of last reuse), respectively. Over the study period, 13.8 million dialyzers were saved, representing 10,000 metric tons of medical waste. Conclusions Despite the large sample size, powered to detect miniscule effects, neither the instrumental variables nor propensity-matched analyses were statistically significant. The time-dependent survival analysis showed a protective effect of reuse. These data are consistent with the preponderance of evidence showing reuse limits medical waste generation without negatively affecting clinical outcomes. PMID:21566107

  10. Serum sclerostin: relation with mortality and impact of hemodiafiltration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lips, Lotte; de Roij van Zuijdewijn, Camiel L M; Ter Wee, Piet M; Bots, Michiel L; Blankestijn, Peter J; van den Dorpel, Marinus A; Fouque, Denis; de Jongh, Renate; Pelletier, Solenne; Vervloet, Marc G; Nubé, Menso J; Grooteman, Muriel P C

    2017-07-01

    The glycoprotein sclerostin (Scl; 22 kDa), which is involved in bone metabolism, may play a role in vascular calcification in haemodialysis (HD) patients. In the present study, we investigated the relation between serum Scl (sScl) and mortality. The effects of dialysis modality and the magnitude of the convection volume in haemodiafiltration (HDF) on sScl were also investigated. In a subset of patients from the CONTRAST study, a randomized controlled trial comparing HDF with HD, sScl was measured at baseline and at intervals of 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Patients were divided into quartiles, according to their baseline sScl. The relation between time-varying sScl and mortality with a 4-year follow-up period was investigated using crude and adjusted Cox regression models. Linear mixed models were used for longitudinal measurements of sScl. The mean (±standard deviation) age of 396 test subjects was 63.6 (±13.9 years), 61.6% were male and the median follow-up was 2.9 years. Subjects with the highest sScl had a lower mortality risk than those with the lowest concentrations [adjusted hazard ratio 0.51 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.31-0.86, P = 0.01)]. Stratified models showed a stable sScl in patients treated with HD (Δ +2.9 pmol/L/year, 95% CI -0.5 to +6.3, P = 0.09) and a decreasing concentration in those treated with HDF (Δ -4.5 pmol/L/year, 95% CI -8.0 to -0.9, P = 0.02). The relative change in the latter group was related to the magnitude of the convection volume. (i) A high sScl is associated with a lower mortality risk in patients with end-stage kidney disease; (ii) treatment with HDF causes sScl to fall; and (iii) the relative decline in patients treated with HDF is dependent on the magnitude of the convection volume. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  11. The impact of relative humidity and atmospheric pressure on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Chun Quan; Yang, Jun; Ou, Qiao Qun; Liu, Hua Zhang; Lin, Guo Zhen; Chen, Ping Yan; Qian, Jun; Guo, Yu Ming

    2014-12-01

    Although many studies have examined the effects of ambient temperatures on mortality, little evidence is on health impacts of atmospheric pressure and relative humidity. This study aimed to assess the impacts of atmospheric pressure and relative humidity on mortality in Guangzhou, China. This study included 213,737 registered deaths during 2003-2011 in Guangzhou, China. A quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the effects of atmospheric pressure/relative humidity. We found significant effect of low atmospheric pressure/relative humidity on mortality. There was a 1.79% (95% confidence interval: 0.38%-3.22%) increase in non-accidental mortality and a 2.27% (0.07%-4.51%) increase in cardiovascular mortality comparing the 5th and 25th percentile of atmospheric pressure. A 3.97% (0.67%-7.39%) increase in cardiovascular mortality was also observed comparing the 5th and 25th percentile of relative humidity. Women were more vulnerable to decrease in atmospheric pressure and relative humidity than men. Age and education attainment were also potential effect modifiers. Furthermore, low atmospheric pressure and relative humidity increased temperature-related mortality. Both low atmospheric pressure and relative humidity are important risk factors of mortality. Our findings would be helpful to develop health risk assessment and climate policy interventions that would better protect vulnerable subgroups of the population. Copyright © 2014 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

  12. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGeehin, M A; Mirabelli, M

    2001-05-01

    Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat, measured by maximum or minimum temperature, heat index, and sometimes, other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions, urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly, young children, the poor, and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations, including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer, and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However, the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans, warning systems, and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between heat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention.

  13. Materialism moderates the impact of mortality salience on impulsive tendencies toward luxury brands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audrin, Catherine; Cheval, Boris; Chanal, Julien

    2018-02-01

    Luxury goods have been shown to help individuals coping with death-related anxiety. However, the extent to which the symbolic value allocated to possessions (i.e., materialism) moderates this effect is still unclear. Here, we investigated the impact of materialism on impulsive approach tendencies toward luxury clothing brands in a context of mortality salience. Results showed that the impact of mortality salience was moderated by materialism with lower impulsive approach tendencies toward luxury clothing brands observed in non-materialistic participants. These findings highlight how materialism values may impact luxury consumption through impulsive pathways in a situation of death-related anxiety.

  14. Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mons, Ute; Müezzinler, Aysel; Gellert, Carolin

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological...... 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37 952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1...... in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk....

  15. Impact of pre-admission depression on mortality following myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbøll, Jens; Schmidt, Morten; Adelborg, Kasper

    2017-01-01

    BackgroundThe prognostic impact of previous depression on myocardial infarction survival remains poorly understood.AimsTo examine the association between depression and all-cause mortality following myocardial infarction.MethodUsing Danish medical registries, we conducted a nationwide population-...... in the depression definition.ConclusionsA history of depression was associated with a moderately increased all-cause mortality following myocardial infarction....

  16. Mortality and community changes drive sudden oak death impacts on litterfall and soil nitrogen cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobb, Richard C; Eviner, Valerie T; Rizzo, David M

    2013-10-01

    Few studies have quantified pathogen impacts to ecosystem processes, despite the fact that pathogens cause or contribute to regional-scale tree mortality. We measured litterfall mass, litterfall chemistry, and soil nitrogen (N) cycling associated with multiple hosts along a gradient of mortality caused by Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death. In redwood forests, the epidemiological and ecological characteristics of the major overstory species determine disease patterns and the magnitude and nature of ecosystem change. Bay laurel (Umbellularia californica) has high litterfall N (0.992%), greater soil extractable NO3 -N, and transmits infection without suffering mortality. Tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus) has moderate litterfall N (0.723%) and transmits infection while suffering extensive mortality that leads to higher extractable soil NO3 -N. Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) has relatively low litterfall N (0.519%), does not suffer mortality or transmit the pathogen, but dominates forest biomass. The strongest impact of pathogen-caused mortality was the potential shift in species composition, which will alter litterfall chemistry, patterns and dynamics of litterfall mass, and increase soil NO3 -N availability. Patterns of P. ramorum spread and consequent mortality are closely associated with bay laurel abundances, suggesting this species will drive both disease emergence and subsequent ecosystem function. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  17. Pilot Study on Potential Impacts of Fisheries-Induced Changes in Zooplankton Mortality on Marine Biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getzlaff, Julia; Oschlies, Andreas

    2017-11-01

    In this pilot study we link the yield of industrial fisheries to changes in the zooplankton mortality in an idealized way accounting for different target species (planktivorous fish—decreased zooplankton mortality; large predators—increased zooplankton mortality). This indirect approach is used in a global coupled biogeochemistry circulation model to estimate the range of the potential impact of industrial fisheries on marine biogeochemistry. The simulated globally integrated response on phytoplankton and primary production is in line with expectations—a high (low) zooplankton mortality results in a decrease (increase) of zooplankton and an increase (decrease) of phytoplankton. In contrast, the local response of zooplankton and phytoplankton depends on the region under consideration: In nutrient-limited regions, an increase (decrease) in zooplankton mortality leads to a decrease (increase) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. In contrast, in nutrient-replete regions, such as upwelling regions, we find an opposing response: an increase (decrease) of the zooplankton mortality leads to an increase (decrease) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. The results are further evaluated by relating the potential fisheries-induced changes in zooplankton mortality to those driven by CO2 emissions in a business-as-usual 21st century emission scenario. In our idealized case, the potential fisheries-induced impact can be of similar size as warming-induced changes in marine biogeochemistry.

  18. Size matters: a meta-analysis on the impact of hospital size on patient mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fareed, Naleef

    2012-06-01

    This paper seeks to understand the relationship between hospital size and patient mortality. Patient mortality has been used by several studies in the health services research field as a proxy for measuring healthcare quality. A systematic review is conducted to identify studies that investigate the impact of hospital size on patient mortality. Using the findings of 21 effect sizes from 10 eligible studies, a meta-analysis is performed using a random effects model. Subgroup analyses using three factors--the measure used for hospital size, type of mortality measure used and whether mortality was adjusted or unadjusted--were utilised to investigate their moderating influence on the study's primary relationship. Results from this analysis indicate that big hospitals have lower odds of patient mortality versus small hospitals. Specifically, the probability of patient mortality in a big hospital, in reference to a small hospital, is 11% less. Subgroup analyses show that studies with unadjusted mortality rates have an even lower overall odds ratio of mortality versus studies with adjusted mortality rates. Aside from some limitations in data reporting, the findings of this paper support theoretical notions that big hospitals have lower mortality rates than small hospitals. Guidelines for better data reporting and future research are provided to further explore the phenomenon. Policy implications of this paper's findings are underscored and a sense of urgency is called for in an effort to help improve the state of a healthcare system that struggles with advancing healthcare quality. © 2012 The Author. International Journal of Evidence-Based Healthcare © 2012 The Joanna Briggs Institute.

  19. Impact of socioeconomic conditions on perinatal mortality in Karachi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, S; Billoo, A G; Samad, N J

    2001-10-01

    To study and compare the perinatal mortality (PNM) in hospitals located in various socio-economic areas of Karachi. A prospective review of all births was done from May 1996 to April 1997. Precoded proformas were provided to each hospital and the birth and details of each mother and baby delivered recorded. All mothers and their newborn delivered during the time period mentioned. Comparison of PNM in hospitals located in various socio-economic areas of Karachi. A total of 4957 proformas were filled, 63.5% by doctors, 32% by LHVs, 2.9% by administrator and 2.3% by paramedics. Overall 92.3% mothers were housewives, less than 45% of the mothers received primary/secondary education; 42% mothers were of the age 21 to 25 years. More than 52.3% fathers were unskilled labourers. Only 27% mothers were booked while the rest were unbooked or came to deliver on walk in basis. Majority (62%) of the mothers had a > 37 week duration of pregnancy and 51% newborns were male and 49% female. Twenty three percent of the newborns weighed 2500 grams but less than 4500 grams; 24.5% newborns died on day one of birth. The PNM per 1000 births in the high, middle and low socioeconomic hospital was 16.4 +/- 23.6, 24.9 +/- 51.20 and 80.4 +/- 177.78 respectively. A statistical significance (p mother, hence the fetus.

  20. Temporal trends in childhood mortality in Ghana: impacts and challenges of health policies and programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbenga A. Kayode

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Following the adoption of the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4 in Ghana to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, efforts were made towards its attainment. However, impacts and challenges of implemented intervention programs have not been examined to inform implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2 that seeks to end preventable deaths of newborns and children aged under-five. Thus, this study aimed to compare trends in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality over two decades and to highlight the impacts and challenges of health policies and intervention programs implemented. Design: Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data (1988–2008 were analyzed using trend analysis. Poisson regression analysis was applied to quantify the incidence rate ratio of the trends. Implemented health policies and intervention programs to reduce childhood mortality in Ghana were reviewed to identify their impact and challenges. Results: Since 1988, the annual average rate of decline in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality in Ghana was 0.6, 1.0, and 1.2%, respectively. From 1988 to 1989, neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality declined from 48 to 33 per 1,000, 72 to 58 per 1,000, and 108 to 83 per 1,000, respectively, whereas from 1989 to 2008, neonatal mortality increased by 2 per 1,000 while infant and under-five mortality further declined by 6 per 1,000 and 17 per 1,000, respectively. However, the observed declines were not statistically significant except for under-five mortality; thus, the proportion of infant and under-five mortality attributed to neonatal death has increased. Most intervention programs implemented to address childhood mortality seem not to have been implemented comprehensively. Conclusion: Progress towards attaining MDG 4 in Ghana was below the targeted rate, particularly for neonatal mortality as most health policies and programs targeted infant and under-five mortality

  1. Impact of mild renal impairment on early postoperative mortality after open cardiac surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Abdel Ghani; Muath Al Nasar

    2010-01-01

    Preoperative severe renal impairment is included in the risk scores to predict outcome after open cardiac surgery. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of pr operative mild renal impairment on the early postoperative mortality after open heart surgery. Data of all cases of open cardiac surgery performed from January 2005 to June 2006 were collected. Cases with preoperative creatinine clearance below 60 mL/min were excluded from the study. Data were retrospectively analyzed to find the impact of renal impairment on short-term outcome. Of the 500 cases studied, 47 had preoperative creatinine clearance between 89-60 mL/min. The overall mortality in the study cases was 6.8%. The mortality was 28.7% in those who developed postoperative ARF, 33.3% in those who required dialysis and 40.8% in those with preoperative mild renal impairment. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that female gender (P = 0.01), preoperative mild renal impairment (P 0.007) as well as occurrence of multi organ failure (P < 0.001) were the only independent variables determining the early postoperative mortality after cardiac surgeries. Among them, preoperative mild renal impairment was the most significant and the best predictor for early postoperative mortality after cardiac surgery. Our study suggests that renal impairment remains a strong predictor of early mortality even after adjustment for several confounders (Author).

  2. Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldis William

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP. The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. Methods The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. Results The coefficients for capital (K, educational enrolment (EN, life expectancy (LE and exports (X had a positive sign; while imports (M and disaster mortality (DS were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. Conclusions We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns.

  3. The impact of comorbidity on mortality in multiple myeloma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Henrik; Vangsted, Annette Juul; Abildgaard, Niels

    2017-01-01

    To describe the prevalence of comorbidity and its impact on survival in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients compared with population controls. Cases of newly diagnosed symptomatic multiple myeloma during the 2005-2012 period were identified in the Danish National Multiple Myeloma Registry....... For each myeloma patient, 10 members of the general population matched by age and sex were chosen from the national Civil Registration System. Data on comorbidity in the myeloma patients and the general population comparison cohort were collected by linkage to the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR......). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the prognostic significance of comorbidity. The study included 2190 cases of multiple myeloma and 21,900 population controls. The comorbidity was increased in multiple myeloma patients compared with population controls, odds ratio (OR) 1...

  4. [The Impact of Medical And Non-Medical Factors on Population Mortality: Environment Factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samorodskaia, I V; Semenov, V Yu; Boitsov, S A

    2017-09-01

    The second analysis was implemented concerning results of study evaluating impact of environmental factors on indices of population mortality on the basis of hard copy and digital publications in Russian and English in 1990-2016. It is established that air pollution by tiny particles of different origin results in a reliable increasing of risk of premature death independently of level of economic development and geographical positioning of country. In European countries this occurrence conditions shortage of of life-span on 8-13 months. The industrial factors are a cause of about 30% of involuntary occupational traumas. The limitation of access to clear drinking water specific to developing countries conditions death of more than 3 million people annually. The impact of waves of cold and heat on mortality depends on particular region, their duration and intensity, level of economic development of country, social economic conditions and age of particular groups of population and is estimated in 1-16% of additional deaths. The global climate warming is associated with decreasing of level of mortality. the negative impact of environment is increased by residing in underdeveloped regions, lower social economic status, lower level of education, population density, shortcomings of architecture and public space, the factors of environment play a significant role in population mortality. As regards their impact an uncertainty exists: it is quite difficult to separate an impact of single factor. So, different approaches are applied in different studies.

  5. Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mons, Ute; Müezzinler, Aysel; Gellert, Carolin

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological...... 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37 952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1......, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies...

  6. Simulated Impacts of Juvenile Mortality on Gulf of Mexico Sturgeon Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B. Tate

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We used an age-structured computer model to assess the impact of changes in juvenile mortality on the Gulf of Mexico sturgeon population in the Suwannee River, Florida. We simulated population trends under four levels of annual juvenile mortality (20, 25, 30, and 35%. As the rate of mortality increased, population size decreased, and rates of population growth shifted from positive to negative. Our models indicated that juvenile survival is important to the success of gulf sturgeon populations, and mortality estimates are needed to predict population viability. We suggest that life history studies in estuaries should be conducted, and bycatch rates for commercial fisheries should be quantified to aid in the management and conservation of gulf sturgeon.

  7. The impact of incisional hernia on mortality after colonic cancer resection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kristian Kiim; Erichsen, Rune; Krarup, Peter Martin

    2016-01-01

    intended colonic resection for cancer with primary anastomosis between 2001 and 2008 were included. The exposure of interest was incisional hernia, as registered in the NPR, and the outcome was long-term overall mortality. Extended cox regression analysis was used to adjust for confounding variables...... the impact of incisional hernia on mortality after colonic cancer resection. METHOD: This was a nationwide cohort study comprising data from the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group's database, the Danish National Patient Registry (NPR), and the Danish Central Person Registry. Patients who underwent curatively...... with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 2.35, 95 % confidence interval 1.39-3.98), while incisional hernia repair did not increase mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.81, 95 % confidence interval 0.68-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: Incisional hernia diagnosis or repair subsequent to colonic cancer resection did...

  8. Identifying heat-related deaths by using medical examiner and vital statistics data: Surveillance analysis and descriptive epidemiology - Oklahoma, 1990-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew G; Brown, Sheryll; Archer, Pam; Wendelboe, Aaron; Magzamen, Sheryl; Bradley, Kristy K

    2016-10-01

    Approximately 660 deaths occur annually in the United States associated with excess natural heat. A record heat wave in Oklahoma during 2011 generated increased interest concerning heat-related mortality among public health preparedness partners. We aimed to improve surveillance for heat-related mortality and better characterize heat-related deaths in Oklahoma during 1990-2011, and to enhance public health messaging during future heat emergencies. Heat-related deaths were identified by querying vital statistics (VS) and medical examiner (ME) data during 1990-2011. Case inclusion criteria were developed by using heat-related International Classification of Diseases codes, cause-of-death nomenclature, and ME investigation narrative. We calculated sensitivity and predictive value positive (PVP) for heat-related mortality surveillance by using VS and ME data and performed a descriptive analysis. During the study period, 364 confirmed and probable heat-related deaths were identified when utilizing both data sets. ME reports had 87% sensitivity and 74% PVP; VS reports had 80% sensitivity and 52% PVP. Compared to Oklahoma's general population, decedents were disproportionately male (67% vs. 49%), aged ≥65 years (46% vs. 14%), and unmarried (78% vs. 47%). Higher rates of heat-related mortality were observed among Blacks. Of 95 decedents with available information, 91 (96%) did not use air conditioning. Linking ME and VS data sources together and using narrative description for case classification allows for improved case ascertainment and surveillance data quality. Males, Blacks, persons aged ≥65 years, unmarried persons, and those without air conditioning carry a disproportionate burden of the heat-related deaths in Oklahoma. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Programmatic Impact of 5 Years of Mortality Surveillance of New York City Homeless Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marder, Dova; Begier, Elizabeth; Gutkovich, Alexander; Mos, Robert; Griffin, Angela; Zimmerman, Regina; Madsen, Ann

    2013-01-01

    A homeless mortality surveillance system identifies emerging trends in the health of the homeless population and provides this information to key stakeholders in a timely and ongoing manner to effect evidence-based, programmatic change. We describe the first 5 years of the New York City homeless mortality surveillance system and, for the first time in peer-reviewed literature, illustrate the impact of key elements of sustained surveillance (i.e., timely dissemination of aggregate mortality data and real-time sharing of information on individual homeless decedents) on the programs of New York City’s Department of Homeless Services. These key elements had a positive impact on the department’s programs that target sleep-related infant deaths and hypothermia, drug overdose, and alcohol-related deaths among homeless persons. PMID:24148068

  10. Heat-related deaths in hot cities: estimates of human tolerance to high temperature thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlan, Sharon L; Chowell, Gerardo; Yang, Shuo; Petitti, Diana B; Morales Butler, Emmanuel J; Ruddell, Benjamin L; Ruddell, Darren M

    2014-03-20

    In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90-97 °F; 32.2-36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

  11. Impact of AIDS on premature mortality in Amsterdam, 1982-1992

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bindels, P. J.; Reijneveld, S. A.; Mulder-Folkerts, D. K.; Coutinho, R. A.; van den Hoek, A. A.

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of AIDS on premature mortality in the city of Amsterdam (1982-1992). METHODS: We combined aggregated data from the Netherlands Central Bureau for Statistics with data from the municipal death and population registry and data from the Amsterdam AIDS surveillance system

  12. Impact of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Incidence and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harboe, Zitta Barrella; Dalby, Tine; Weinberger, Daniel M

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The impact of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) at the population level is unclear. We explored PCV13's effect in reducing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD)-related morbidity and mortality, and whether serotype-specific changes were attributable to vaccination or ...

  13. Temporal trends in childhood mortality in Ghana: impacts and challenges of health policies and programs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayode, Gbenga A.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Koduah, Augustina; Amoakoh-Coleman, Mary; Agyepong, Irene A.; Ansah, Evelyn; Dijk, van Han; Klipstein-grobusch, Kerstin

    2016-01-01

    Background: Following the adoption of the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) in Ghana to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, efforts were made towards its attainment. However, impacts and challenges of implemented intervention programs have not been examined to inform

  14. Temporal trends in childhood mortality in Ghana : impacts and challenges of health policies and programs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayode, Gbenga A; Grobbee, Diederick E; Koduah, Augustina; Amoakoh-Coleman, Mary; Agyepong, Irene A; Ansah, Evelyn; van Dijk, Han; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Following the adoption of the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) in Ghana to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, efforts were made towards its attainment. However, impacts and challenges of implemented intervention programs have not been examined to inform

  15. The Impact of Ionospheric and Geomagnetic Changes on Mortality from Diseases of the Circulatory System

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Podolská, Kateřina

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 27, č. 2 (2018), s. 404-417 ISSN 1052-3057 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : mortality * circulatory system diseases * solar indices * cluster analysis using time Subject RIV: DN - Health Impact of the Environment Quality OBOR OECD: Public and environmental health Impact factor: 1.517, year: 2016 http://www.strokejournal.org/article/S1052-3057(17)30488-3/fulltext

  16. Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children morbidity and mortality in Peru: Time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, Victor; Michel, Fabiana; Toscano, Cristiana M; Bierrenbach, Ana Luiza; Gonzales, Marco; Alencar, Airlane Pereira; Ruiz Matus, Cuauhtemoc; Andrus, Jon K; de Oliveira, Lucia H

    2016-09-07

    Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of bacterial pneumonia, meningitis and sepsis in children worldwide. Despite available evidence on pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) impact on pneumonia hospitalizations in children, studies demonstrating PCV impact in morbidity and mortality in middle-income countries are still scarce. Given the disease burden, PCV7 was introduced in Peru in 2009, and then switched to PCV10 in late 2011. National public healthcare system provides care for 60% of the population, and national hospitalization, outpatient and mortality data are available. We thus aimed to assess the effects of routine PCV vaccination on pneumonia hospitalization and mortality, and acute otitis media (AOM) and all cause pneumonia outpatient visits in children under one year of age in Peru. We conducted a segmented time-series analysis using outcome-specific regression models. Study period was from January 2006 to December 2012. Data sources included the National information systems for hospitalization, mortality, outpatient visits, and RENACE, the national database of aggregated weekly notifications of pneumonia and other acute respiratory diseases (both hospitalized and non-hospitalized). Study outcomes included community acquired pneumonia outpatient visits, hospitalizations and deaths (ICD10 codes J12-J18); and AOM outpatient visits (H65-H67). Monthly age- and sex-specific admission, outpatient visit, and mortality rates per 100,000 children aged Peru. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lijun; Liu, Tao; Hu, Mengjue; Zeng, Weilin; Zhang, Yonghui; Rutherford, Shannon; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Yin, Peng; Liu, Jiangmei; Chu, Cordia; Tong, Shilu; Ma, Wenjun; Zhou, Maigeng

    2016-12-01

    In China, the health impact of cold weather has received little attention, which limits our understanding of the health impacts of climate change. We collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 66 communities across China from 2006 to 2011. Within each community, we estimated the effect of cold spell exposure on mortality using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM). We also examined the modification effect of cold spell characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing) and individual-specific factors (causes of death, age, gender and education). Meta-analysis method was finally used to estimate the overall effects. The overall cumulative excess risk (CER) of non-accidental mortality during cold spell days was 28.2% (95% CI: 21.4%, 35.3%) compared with non-cold spell days. There was a significant increase in mortality when the cold spell duration and intensity increased or occurred earlier in the season. Cold spell effects and effect modification by cold spell characteristics were more pronounced in south China. The elderly, people with low education level and those with respiratory diseases were generally more vulnerable to cold spells. Cold spells statistically significantly increase mortality risk in China, with greater effects in southern China. This effect is modified by cold spell characteristics and individual-level factors.

  18. Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orru, Hans; Andersson, Camilla; Ebi, Kristie L; Langner, Joakim; Aström, Christofer; Forsberg, Bertil

    2013-02-01

    Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change. Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with the model of atmospheric transport and chemistry (MATCH)-RCA3 (50×50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. We applied a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity. Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increases in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal, with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected. The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.

  19. Modelling domestic stock energy use and heat-related health risk : a GIS-based bottom-up modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mavrogianni, A.; Davies, M. [Univ. College London, London (United Kingdom). Bartlett School of Graduate Studies; Chalabi, Z.; Wilkinson, P. [London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medecine, London (United Kingdom); Kolokotroni, M. [Brunel Univ., London (United Kingdom). School of Engineering Design

    2009-07-01

    Approximately 8 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions produced in the United Kingdom are produced in London, one of the fastest growing cities worldwide. Based on the projected rates of population and economic growth, a 15 per cent increase of emissions is predicted. In addition to the national target to cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, the Mayor of London Climate Change Action Plan set a target to reduce London's CO{sub 2} emissions by 60 per cent by 2025. Significant carbon savings can be achieved in the building sector, particularly since 38 per cent of the total delivered energy in London is associated with domestic energy use. This paper demonstrated a systematic approach towards exploring the impact of urban built form and the combined effect of climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon on the levels of domestic energy consumption and heat-related health risk in London. It presented work in progress on the development of a GIS-based energy consumption model and heat vulnerability index of the Greater London Area domestic stock. Comparison of the model output for 10 case study areas with topdown energy statistics revealed that the model successfully ranks areas based on their domestic space heating demand. The health module can be used to determine environments prone to higher risk of heat stress by investigating urban texture factors. A newly developed epidemiological model will be feed into the health module to examine the influence on risk of heat-related mortality of local urban built form characteristics. The epidemiological model is based on multi-variable analysis of deaths during heat wave and non-heat wave days. 29 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  20. Impacts of temperature extremes on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davídkovová, H.; Kyselý, J.; Plavcová, E.; Urban, A.; Kriz, B.; Kyncl, J.

    2012-04-01

    Elevated mortality associated with high ambient temperatures in summer represents one of the main impacts of weather extremes on human society. Increases in cardiovascular mortality during heat waves have been reported in many European countries; much less is known about which particular cardiovascular disorders are most affected during heat waves, and whether similar patterns are found for morbidity (hospital admissions). Relatively less understood is also cold-related mortality and morbidity in winter, when the relationships between weather and human health are more complex, less direct, and confounded by other factors such as epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. The present study analyses relationships between temperature extremes and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We make use of the datasets on hospital admissions and daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic (about 10.3 million) over 1994-2009. The data have been standardized to remove the effects of the long-term trend and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Periods when the morbidity/mortality data were affected by epidemics of influenza and other acute respiratory infections have been removed from the analysis. We use analogous definitions for hot and cold spells based on quantiles of daily average temperature anomalies, which allows for a comparison of the findings for summer hot spells and winter cold spells. The main aims of the study are (i) to identify deviations of mortality and morbidity from the baseline associated with hot and cold spells, (ii) to compare the hot- and cold-spell effects for individual cardiovascular diseases (e.g. ischaemic heart disease I20-I25, cerebrovascular disease I60-I69, hypertension I10, aterosclerosis I70) and to identify those diagnoses that are most closely linked to temperature extremes, (iii) to identify population groups most vulnerable to temperature extremes, and (iv) to compare the links to temperature extremes for morbidity and

  1. Education and adult cause-specific mortality--examining the impact of family factors shared by 871 367 Norwegian siblings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Oyvind; Hoff, Dominic A; Lawlor, Debbie

    2012-01-01

    To estimate the impact family factors shared by siblings has on the association between length of education and cause-specific mortality in adulthood.......To estimate the impact family factors shared by siblings has on the association between length of education and cause-specific mortality in adulthood....

  2. Preventing Heat-Related Illness or Death of Outdoor Workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... instructed him to rest, but the man continued working. An hour later, the man appeared confused and coworkers carried ... for conducting research and making recommendations to prevent work-related illness and ... significantly reduced Preventing Heat-related Illness or Death of Outdoor ...

  3. Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Výberči, Dalibor; Labudová, Lívia; Eštóková, Milada; Faško, Pavol; Trizna, Milan

    2017-07-01

    In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days' sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996-2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.

  4. Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidlin, Kurt; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M; Spoerri, Adrian; Egger, Matthias; Zwahlen, Marcel

    2013-01-04

    Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates

  5. Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schmidlin Kurt

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC. Methods The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons and 2000 (7.3 million persons censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991–2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD, using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. Results SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4% - 17.9% in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75–84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between −1.4% and +1.8%. In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12% - 28% and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7% - 23% cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy

  6. [Analysis of the impact of mortality due to suicides in Mexico, 2000-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávila Cervantes, Claudio Alberto; Ochoa Torres, María del Pilar; Casique Rodríguez, Irene

    2015-12-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze the burden of disease due to suicide in Mexico using years of life lost (YLL) between 2000 and 2012 by sex, age group (for those under 85 years of age) and jurisdiction. Vital statistics on mortality and population estimates were used to calculate standardized mortality rates and years of life lost due to suicide. Between 2000 and 2012 a sustained increase in the suicide mortality rate was observed in Mexico. The age group with the highest rate was 85 years of age or older for men, and 15-19 years of age for women. The highest impact in life expectancy due to suicide occurred at 20 to 24 years of age in men and 15 to 19 years of age in women. The states with the highest mortality due to suicide were located in the Yucatan Peninsula (Yucatan, Quintana Roo and Campeche). Mortality due to suicide in Mexico has increased continually. As suicides are preventable, the implementation of health public policies through timely identification, integral prevention strategies and the detailed study of associated risk factors is imperative.

  7. Impact of training traditional birth attendants on maternal mortality and morbidity in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayombo, Edmund J

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents discussion on impact of training traditional birth attendants (TBAs) on overall improvement of reproductive health care with focus on reducing the high rate of maternal and new-born mortality in rural settings in sub-Saharan Africa. The importance of TBAs for years has been denied by professional western trained health practitioners and other scientists until during the late 1980s, when World Health Organization through Safe motherhood 1987 found TBAs have a significant role in reducing maternal and new-born mortality. Trained TBAs in sub-Sahara Africa can have positive impact on reducing maternal and new-born mortality if the programme is well implemented with systematic follow-up after training. This could be done through joint meeting between health workers and TBAs as feed and learning experience from problem encountered in process of providing child delivery services. TBAs can help to break socio-cultural barriers on intervention on reproductive health programmes. However projects targeting TBAs should not be of hit and run; but gradually familiarize with the target group, build trust, transparency, and tolerance, willing to learn and creating rappour with them. In this paper, some case studies are described on how trained TBAs can be fully utilized in reducing maternal and new-born mortality rate in rural areas. What is needed is to identify TBAs, map their distribution and train them on basic primary healthcare related to child deliveries and complications which need to be referred to conventional health facilities immediately.

  8. Global Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination on Childhood Hospitalizations and Mortality From Diarrhea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, Eleanor; Jonesteller, Christine L; Tate, Jacqueline E; Yen, Catherine; Parashar, Umesh D

    2017-06-01

    In 2006, 2 rotavirus vaccines were licensed. We summarize the impact of rotavirus vaccination on hospitalizations and deaths from rotavirus and all-cause acute gastroenteritis (AGE) during the first 10 years since vaccine licensure, including recent evidence from countries with high child mortality. We used standardized guidelines (PRISMA) to identify observational evaluations of rotavirus vaccine impact among children rotavirus AGE were reduced by a median of 67% overall and 71%, 59%, and 60% in countries with low, medium, and high child mortality, respectively. Implementation of rotavirus vaccines has substantially decreased hospitalizations from rotavirus and all-cause AGE. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  9. Assessing the short term impact of air pollution on mortality: a matching approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baccini, Michela; Mattei, Alessandra; Mealli, Fabrizia; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Carugno, Michele

    2017-02-10

    The opportunity to assess short term impact of air pollution relies on the causal interpretation of the exposure-response association. However, up to now few studies explicitly faced this issue within a causal inference framework. In this paper, we reformulated the problem of assessing the short term impact of air pollution on health using the potential outcome approach to causal inference. We considered the impact of high daily levels of particulate matter ≤10 μm in diameter (PM 10 ) on mortality within two days from the exposure in the metropolitan area of Milan (Italy), during the period 2003-2006. Our research focus was the causal impact of a hypothetical intervention setting daily air pollution levels under a pre-fixed threshold. We applied a matching procedure based on propensity score to estimate the total number of attributable deaths (AD) during the study period. After defining the number of attributable deaths in terms of difference between potential outcomes, we used the estimated propensity score to match each high exposure day, namely each day with a level of exposure higher than 40 μg/m 3 , with a day with similar background characteristics but a level of exposure lower than 40 μg/m 3 . Then, we estimated the impact by comparing mortality between matched days. During the study period daily exposures larger than 40 μg/m 3 were responsible for 1079 deaths (90% CI: 116; 2042). The impact was more evident among the elderly than in the younger age classes. Exposures ≥ 40 μg/m 3 were responsible, among the elderly, for 1102 deaths (90% CI: 388, 1816), of which 797 from cardiovascular causes and 243 from respiratory causes. Clear evidence of an impact on respiratory mortality was found also in the age class 65-74, with 87 AD (90% CI: 11, 163). The propensity score matching turned out to be an appealing method to assess historical impacts in this field, which guarantees that the estimated total number of AD can be derived directly as sum

  10. Maternal mortality in rural South Africa: the impact of case definition on levels and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garenne M

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Michel Garenne,1–3 Kathleen Kahn,1,4,5 Mark A Collinson,1,4,5 F Xavier Gómez-Olivé,1,5 Stephen Tollman1,4,51MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; 2Institut Pasteur, Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes, Paris, France; 3Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMI Résiliences, Centre Ile de France, Bondy, France; 4Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; 5INDEPTH Network, East Legon, Accra, GhanaBackground: Uncertainty in the levels of global maternal mortality reflects data deficiencies, as well as differences in methods and definitions. This study presents levels and trends in maternal mortality in Agincourt, a rural subdistrict of South Africa, under long-term health and sociodemographic surveillance.Methods: All deaths of women aged 15 years–49 years occurring in the study area between 1992 and 2010 were investigated, and causes of death were assessed by verbal autopsy. Two case definitions were used: “obstetrical” (direct causes, defined as deaths caused by conditions listed under O00-O95 in International Classification of Diseases-10; and “pregnancy-related deaths”, defined as any death occurring during the maternal risk period (pregnancy, delivery, 6 weeks postpartum, irrespective of cause.Results: The case definition had a major impact on levels and trends in maternal mortality. The obstetric mortality ratio averaged 185 per 100,000 live births over the period (60 deaths, whereas the pregnancy-related mortality ratio averaged 423 per 100,000 live births (137 deaths. Results from both calculations increased over the period, with a peak around 2006, followed by a decline coincident with the national roll-out of Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and antiretroviral treatment programs. Mortality increase from direct causes was

  11. Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharon L. Harlan

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C. Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C. Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

  12. Impact on colorectal cancer mortality of screening programmes based on the faecal immunochemical test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzi, Manuel; Fedeli, Ugo; Schievano, Elena; Bovo, Emanuela; Guzzinati, Stefano; Baracco, Susanna; Fedato, Chiara; Saugo, Mario; Dei Tos, Angelo Paolo

    2015-05-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes based on the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) reduce CRC-specific mortality. Several studies have shown higher sensitivity with the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) compared with gFOBT. We carried out an ecological study to evaluate the impact of FIT-based screening programmes on CRC mortality. In the Veneto Region (Italy), biennial FIT-based screening programmes that invited 50-69-year-old residents were introduced in different areas between 2002 and 2009. We compared CRC mortality rates from 1995 to 2011 between the areas where screening started in 2002-2004 (early screening areas (ESA)) and areas that introduced the screening in 2008-2009 (late screening areas (LSA)) using Poisson regression models. We also compared available data on CRC incidence rates (1995-2007) and surgical resection rates (2001-2012). Before the introduction of screening, CRC mortality and incidence rates in the two areas were similar. Compared with 1995-2000, 2006-2011 mortality rates were 22% lower in the ESA than in the LSA (rate ratio (RR)=0.78; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89). The reduction was larger in women (RR=0.64; CI 0.51 to 0.80) than in men (RR=0.87; CI 0.73 to 1.04). In the ESA, incidence and surgery rates peaked during the introduction of the screening programme and then returned to the baseline (2006-2007 incidence) or dropped below initial values (surgery after 2007). FIT-based screening programmes were associated with a significant reduction in CRC mortality. This effect took place much earlier than reported by gFOBT-based trials and observational studies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  13. The impact of heat waves on mortality in seven major cities in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Ji-Young; Lee, Jong-Tae; Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

    2012-04-01

    Understanding the health impacts of heat waves is important, especially given anticipated increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves due to climate change. We examined mortality from heat waves in seven major Korean cities for 2000 through 2007 and investigated effect modification by individual characteristics and heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 consecutive days with daily mean temperature at or above the 98th percentile for the warm season in each city. We compared mortality during heat-wave days and non-heat-wave days using city-specific generalized linear models. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate overall effects within and across all cities. In addition, we estimated effects of heat wave characteristics and effects according to cause of death and examined effect modification by individual characteristics for Seoul. Overall, total mortality increased 4.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): -6.1%, 15.4%] during heat waves compared with non-heat-wave days, with an 8.4% increase (95% CI: 0.1%, 17.3%) estimated for Seoul. Estimated mortality was higher for heat waves that were more intense, longer, or earlier in summer, although effects were not statistically significant. Estimated risks were higher for women versus men, older versus younger residents, those with no education versus some education, and deaths that occurred out of hospitals in Seoul, although differences among strata of individual characteristics were not statistically significant. Our findings support evidence of mortality impacts from heat waves and have implications for efforts to reduce the public health burden of heat waves.

  14. Climate and heat-related emergencies in Chicago, Illinois (2003-2006).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartz, Donna A; Golden, Jay S; Sister, Chona; Chuang, Wen-Ching; Brazel, Anthony J

    2012-01-01

    Extreme heat events are responsible for more deaths in the United States than floods, hurricanes and tornados combined. Yet, highly publicized events, such as the 2003 heat wave in Europe which caused in excess of 35,000 deaths, and the Chicago heat wave of 1995 that produced over 500 deaths, draw attention away from the countless thousands who, each year, fall victim to nonfatal health emergencies and illnesses directly attributed to heat. The health impact of heat waves and excessive heat are well known. Cities worldwide are seeking to better understand heat-related illnesses with respect to the specifics of climate, social demographics and spatial distributions. This information can support better preparation for heat-related emergency situations with regards to planning for response capacity and placement of emergency resources and personnel. This study deals specifically with the relationship between climate and heat-related dispatches (HRD, emergency 911 calls) in Chicago, Illinois, between 2003 and 2006. It is part of a larger, more in-depth, study that includes urban morphology and social factors that impact heat-related emergency dispatch calls in Chicago. The highest occurrences of HRD are located in the central business district, but are generally scattered across the city. Though temperature can be a very good predictor of high HRD, heat index is a better indicator. We determined temperature and heat index thresholds for high HRD. We were also able to identify a lag in HRD as well as other situations that triggered higher (or lower) HRD than would typically be generated for the temperature and humidity levels, such as early afternoon rainfall and special events.

  15. Small-area spatiotemporal analysis of heatwave impacts on elderly mortality in Paris: A cluster analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benmarhnia, Tarik; Kihal-Talantikite, Wahida; Ragettli, Martina S; Deguen, Séverine

    2017-08-15

    Heat-waves have a substantial public health burden. Understanding spatial heterogeneity at a fine spatial scale in relation to heat and related mortality is central to target interventions towards vulnerable communities. To determine the spatial variability of heat-wave-related mortality risk among elderly in Paris, France at the census block level. We also aimed to assess area-level social and environmental determinants of high mortality risk within Paris. We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009 among people aged >65 at the French census block level within Paris. We used two heat wave days' definitions that were compared to non-heat wave days. A Bernoulli cluster analysis method was applied to identify high risk clusters of mortality during heat waves. We performed random effects meta-regression analyses to investigate factors associated with the magnitude of the mortality risk. The spatial approach revealed a spatial aggregation of death cases during heat wave days. We found that small scale chronic PM 10 exposure was associated with a 0.02 (95% CI: 0.001; 0.045) increase of the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We also found a positive association with the percentage of foreigners and the percentage of labor force, while the proportion of elderly people living in the neighborhood was negatively associated. We also found that green space density had a protective effect and inversely that the density of constructed feature increased the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We showed that a spatial variation in terms of heat-related vulnerability exists within Paris and that it can be explained by some contextual factors. This study can be useful for designing interventions targeting more vulnerable areas and reduce the burden of heat waves. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Impacts of Intercontinental Transport of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter on Human Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anenberg, Susan C.; West, J. Jason; Hongbin, Yu; Chin, Mian; Schulz, Michael; Bergmann, Dan; Bey, Isabelle; Bian, Huisheng; Diehl, Thomas; Fiore, Arlene; hide

    2014-01-01

    Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93-97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3-7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800-14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.

  17. Impact of the 2011 heat wave on mortality and emergency department visits in Houston, Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Begley, Charles E

    2015-01-27

    Heat waves have been linked to increased risk of mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a changing climate. Houston and other areas in Texas experienced an exceptional heat wave in the summer of 2011 producing the hottest August on record. This study aims to assess the health-related impact of this heat wave. Distributed lag models were used to estimate associations between the 2011 heat wave and all-cause mortality and emergency department (ED) visits from May 1 through September 30 for the five-year period 2007-2011. The 2011 heat wave is defined as a continuous period from August 2 through 30, 2011 according to the heat advisories issued by the local National Weather Service office, and is included in the models as a dummy variable. We compared the estimated excess risk among the models with and without adjustment of continuous temperature and ozone. The 2011 heat wave in Houston was associated with a 3.6% excess risk in ED visits (95% CI: 0.6%, 6.6%) and 0.6% increase in mortality risk (95% CI: -5.5%, 7.1%). The elderly over 65 years of age were at the greatest risk in ED visits. These patterns are consistent across different heat-wave definitions, and results are similar when adjusting for continuous temperature and ozone. The 2011 heat wave in Houston had a substantial impact on ED visits and no significant impact on mortality. Our findings provide insights into local heat-wave and health preparations and interventions.

  18. Impact of functional determinants on 5.5-year mortality in Amazon riparian elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago C. Antonini

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To ascertain whether modifiable physical performance–based measurements predicted 5.5-year mortality in a riparian elderly cohort in the Amazon rainforest region. Methods A longitudinal study evaluating the impact of functional determinants on 5.5-year mortality in a riparian elderly cohort from Maués City in the state of Amazonas, Brazil, was performed. The study was a follow-up of a previous observational investigation that evaluated various fitness tests in 630 Amazonian riparian elderly (291 males and 339 females aged 72.3 ± 8.0 (60–99 years old. The cohort was selected for its adverse environmental conditions, which increased the risk of falls yet required maintenance of good physical condition for carrying out relatively rigorous daily activities, and restricted access to specialized health services. Official death records were obtained from the Maués Municipal Health Department. Results A total of 80 study participants (12.7% died over the 5.5-year study period. Kaplan-Meier regression analysis showed significant association between Timed Up and Go (TUG test scores ≥ 14 seconds and mortality risk, independent of sex, age, and other health variables. Conclusions The study results suggest that the TUG test can be used as an indicator for initiating therapeutic and preventive actions, including conducting exercises or physical activities adapted to the health and functional conditions of the elderly, by identifying elderly people with a higher relative risk of mortality.

  19. Scale dependence of disease impacts on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality in the southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.

    2015-01-01

    Depending on how disease impacts tree exposure to risk, both the prevalence of disease and disease effects on survival may contribute to patterns of mortality risk across a species' range. Disease may accelerate tree species' declines in response to global change factors, such as drought, biotic interactions, such as competition, or functional traits, such as allometry. To assess the role of disease in mediating mortality risk in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides), we developed hierarchical Bayesian models for both disease prevalence in live aspen stems and the resulting survival rates of healthy and diseased aspen near the species' southern range limit using 5088 individual trees on 281 United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plots in the southwestern United States.

  20. Subclinical hypothyroidism and mortality in a large Austrian cohort: a possible impact on treatment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovar, Florian Maria; Fang, I-Fei; Perkmann, Thomas; Haslacher, Helmuth; Slavka, Georg; Födinger, Manuela; Endler, Georg; Wagner, Oswald F

    2015-12-01

    Clinical implications of subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) are still matter of intense debate, resulting in the controversial discussion whether subclinical hypothyroidism should be treated. We performed a cohort study to evaluate the impact of subclinical hypothyroidism on vascular and overall mortality. Between 02/1993 and 03/2004, a total of 103,135 persons attending the General Hospital Vienna with baseline serum thyrotropin (TSH, thyroid-stimulating hormone) and free thyroxin (fT4) measurements could be enrolled in a retrospective cohort study. Subclinical hypothyroidism was defined by elevated TSH ranging from 4.5 to 20.0 mIU/L and normal fT4 concentration (0.7-1.7 ng/dL). Overall and vascular mortality as primary endpoints were assessed via record linkage with the Austrian Death Registry. A total of 80,490 subjects fulfilled inclusion criteria of whom 3934 participants (3.7%) were classified as SCH (868 males and 3066 females, median age 48 years). The mean follow-up among the 80,490 subjects was 4.1 years yielding an observation period of 373,301 person-years at risk. In a multivariate Cox regression model adjusted for age and gender TSH levels showed a dose-dependent association with all-cause mortality. The association between SCH and overall or vascular mortality was stronger in men below 60 years compared to older males or females. Our data support the hypothesis that SCH might represent an independent risk factor for overall and vascular mortality, especially in men below 60 years. Whether this group would benefit from replacement therapy should be evaluated in interventional studies.

  1. Impact of Sarcopenia on One-Year Mortality among Older Hospitalized Patients with Impaired Mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pourhassan, M; Norman, K; Müller, M J; Dziewas, R; Wirth, R

    2018-01-01

    However, the information regarding the impact of sarcopenia on mortality in older individuals is rising, there is a lack of knowledge concerning this issue among geriatric hospitalized patients. Therefore, aim of the present study was to investigate the associations between sarcopenia and 1-year mortality in a prospectively recruited sample of geriatric inpatients with different mobility and dependency status. Sarcopenia was diagnosed using the criteria of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP). Hand grip strength and skeletal muscle mass were measured using Jamar dynamometer and bioelectrical impedance analysis, respectively. Physical function was assessed with the Short Physical Performance Battery. Dependency status was defined by Barthel-Index (BI). Mobility limitation was defined according to walking ability as described in BI. The survival status was ascertained by telephone interview. The recruited population comprised 198 patients from a geriatric acute ward with a mean age of 82.8 ± 5.9 (70.2% females). 50 (25.3%) patients had sarcopenia, while 148 (74.7%) had no sarcopenia. 14 (28%) patients died among sarcopenic subjects compared with 28 (19%) non-sarcopenic subjects (P=0.229). After adjustment for potential confounders, sarcopenia was associated with increased mortality among patients with limited mobility prior to admission (n=138, hazard ratio, HR: 2.52, 95% CI: 1.17-5.44) and at time of discharge (n=162, HR: 1.93, 95% CI: 0.67-3.22). In a sub-group of patients with pre-admission BIsarcopenia and mortality across the different scores of BI during admission and at time of discharge. Sarcopenia is significantly associated with higher risk of mortality among sub-groups of older patients with limited mobility and impaired functional status, independently of age and other clinical variables.

  2. In surgeons performing cardiothoracic surgery is sleep deprivation significant in its impact on morbidity or mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asfour, Leila; Asfour, Victoria; McCormack, David; Attia, Rizwan

    2014-09-01

    A best evidence topic in cardiac surgery was written according to a structured protocol. The question addressed was: is there a difference in cardiothoracic surgery outcomes in terms of morbidity or mortality of patients operated on by a sleep-deprived surgeon compared with those operated by a non-sleep-deprived surgeon? Reported search criteria yielded 77 papers, of which 15 were deemed to represent the best evidence on the topic. Three studies directly related to cardiothoracic surgery and 12 studies related to non-cardiothoracic surgery. Recommendations are based on 18 121 cardiothoracic patients and 214 666 non-cardiothoracic surgical patients. Different definitions of sleep deprivation were used in the studies, either reviewing surgeon's sleeping hours or out-of-hours operating. Surgical outcomes reviewed included: mortality rate, neurological, renal, pulmonary, infectious complications, length of stay, length of intensive care stay, cardiopulmonary bypass times and aortic-cross-clamp times. There were no significant differences in mortality or intraoperative complications in the groups of patients operated on by sleep-deprived versus non-sleep-deprived surgeons in cardiothoracic studies. One study showed a significant increase in the rate of septicaemia in patients operated on by severely sleep-deprived surgeons (3.6%) compared with the moderately sleep-deprived (0.9%) and non-sleep-deprived groups (0.8%) (P = 0.03). In the non-cardiothoracic studies, 7 of the 12 studies demonstrated statistically significant higher reoperation rate in trauma cases (P sleep deprivation in cardiothoracic surgeons on morbidity or mortality. However, overall the non-cardiothoracic studies have demonstrated that operative time and sleep deprivation can have a significant impact on overall morbidity and mortality. It is likely that other confounding factors concomitantly affect outcomes in out-of-hours surgery. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of

  3. Impact of post-intubation interventions on mortality in patients boarding in the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhat, Rahul; Goyal, Munish; Graf, Shannon; Bhooshan, Anu; Teferra, Eshetu; Dubin, Jeffrey; Frohna, Bill

    2014-09-01

    Emergency physicians frequently perform endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation. The impact of instituting early post-intubation interventions on patients boarding in the emergency department (ED) is not well studied. We sought to determine the impact of post-intubation interventions (arterial blood gas sampling, obtaining a chest x-ray (CXR), gastric decompression, early sedation, appropriate initial tidal volume, and quantitative capnography) on outcomes of mortality, ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), ventilator days, and intensive care unit (ICU) length-of-stay (LOS). This was an observational, retrospective study of patients intubated in the ED at a large tertiary-care teaching hospital and included patients in the ED for greater than two hours post-intubation. We excluded them if they had incomplete data, were designated "do not resuscitate," were managed primarily by the trauma team, or had surgery within six hours after intubation. Of 169 patients meeting criteria, 15 died and 10 developed VAP. The mortality odds ratio (OR) in patients receiving CXR was 0.10 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.98), and 0.11 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.46) in patients receiving early sedation. The mortality OR for patients with 3 or fewer interventions was 4.25 (95% CI 1.15 to 15.75) when compared to patients with 5 or more interventions. There was no significant relationship between VAP rate, ventilator days, or ICU LOS and any of the intervention groups. The performance of a CXR and early sedation as well as performing five or more vs. three or fewer post-intubation interventions in boarding adult ED patients was associated with decreased mortality.

  4. Impact of statin adherence on cardiovascular disease and mortality outcomes: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vera, Mary A; Bhole, Vidula; Burns, Lindsay C; Lacaille, Diane

    2014-01-01

    Aims While suboptimal adherence to statin medication has been quantified in real-world patient settings, a better understanding of its impact is needed, particularly with respect to distinct problems of medication taking. Our aim was to synthesize current evidence on the impacts of statin adherence, discontinuation and persistence on cardiovascular disease and mortality outcomes. Methods We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies using a mapped search of Medline, Embase and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts databases. Observational studies that met the following criteria were included: defined patient population; statin adherence exposure; defined study outcome [i.e. cardiovascular disease (CVD), mortality]; and reporting of statin-specific results. Results Overall, 28 studies were included, with 19 studies evaluating outcomes associated with statin adherence, six with statin discontinuation and three with statin persistence. Among adherence studies, the proportion of days covered was the most widely used measure, with the majority of studies reporting increased risk of CVD (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.22 to 5.26) and mortality (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.25 to 2.54) among non-adherent individuals. There was greater methodological variability in discontinuation and persistence studies. However, findings of increased CVD (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.22 to 1.67) and mortality (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.79 to 5.00) among nonpersistent individuals were also consistently reported. Conclusions Observational studies consistently report an increased risk of adverse outcomes associated with poor statin adherence. These findings have important implications for patients and physicians and emphasize the importance of monitoring and encouraging adherence to statin therapy. PMID:25364801

  5. Impacts of HIV/AIDS mortality on food security and natural resource utilisation in rural South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, J

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available AIDS mortality, its linkages as a determinant and consequence of food security and its impact on natural resource utilisation by mainly rural populations, has not been well researched, especially their effects on rural livelihoods. Determining...

  6. Population-Wide Impact of Non-Hip Non-Vertebral Fractures on Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Thach; Bliuc, Dana; van Geel, Tineke; Adachi, Jonathan D; Berger, Claudie; van den Bergh, Joop; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet; Goltzman, David; Hanley, David A; Josse, Robert G; Kaiser, Stephanie M; Kovacs, Christopher S; Langsetmo, Lisa; Prior, Jerilynn C; Nguyen, Tuan V; Center, Jacqueline R

    2017-09-01

    Data on long-term consequences of non-hip non-vertebral (NHNV) fractures, accounting for approximately two-thirds of all fragility fractures, are scanty. Our study aimed to quantify the population-wide impact of NHNV fractures on mortality. The national population-based prospective cohort study (Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study) included 5526 community dwelling women and 2163 men aged 50 years or older followed from July 1995 to September 2013. Population impact number was used to quantify the average number of people for whom one death would be attributable to fracture and case impact number to quantify the number of deaths out of which one would be attributable to a fracture. There were 1370 fragility fractures followed by 296 deaths in women (mortality rate: 3.49; 95% CI, 3.11 to 3.91), and 302 fractures with 92 deaths in men (5.05; 95% CI, 4.12 to 6.20). NHNV fractures accounted for three-quarters of fractures. In women, the population-wide impact of NHNV fractures on mortality was greater than that of hip and vertebral fractures because of the greater number of NHNV fractures. Out of 800 women, one death was estimated to be attributable to a NHNV fracture, compared with one death in 2000 women attributable to hip or vertebral fracture. Similarly, out of 15 deaths in women, one was estimated to be attributable to a NHNV fracture, compared with one in over 40 deaths for hip or vertebral fracture. The impact of forearm fractures (ie, one death in 2400 women and one out of 42 deaths in women attributable to forearm fracture) was similar to that of hip, vertebral, or rib fractures. Similar, albeit not significant, results were noted for men. The study highlights the important contribution of NHNV fractures on mortality because many NHNV fracture types, except for the most distal fractures, have serious adverse consequences that affect a significant proportion of the population. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society

  7. Urban and Transport Planning Related Exposures and Mortality: A Health Impact Assessment for Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Natalie; Rojas-Rueda, David; Basagaña, Xavier; Cirach, Marta; Cole-Hunter, Tom; Dadvand, Payam; Donaire-Gonzalez, David; Foraster, Maria; Gascon, Mireia; Martinez, David; Tonne, Cathryn; Triguero-Mas, Margarita; Valentín, Antònia; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark

    2017-01-01

    By 2050, nearly 70% of the global population is projected to live in urban areas. Because the environments we inhabit affect our health, urban and transport designs that promote healthy living are needed. We estimated the number of premature deaths preventable under compliance with international exposure recommendations for physical activity (PA), air pollution, noise, heat, and access to green spaces. We developed and applied the Urban and TranspOrt Planning Health Impact Assessment (UTOPHIA) tool to Barcelona, Spain. Exposure estimates and mortality data were available for 1,357,361 residents. We compared recommended with current exposure levels. We quantified the associations between exposures and mortality and calculated population attributable fractions to estimate the number of premature deaths preventable. We also modeled life-expectancy and economic impacts. We estimated that annually, nearly 20% of mortality could be prevented if international recommendations for performance of PA; exposure to air pollution, noise, and heat; and access to green space were followed. Estimations showed that the greatest portion of preventable deaths was attributable to increases in PA, followed by reductions of exposure to air pollution, traffic noise, and heat. Access to green spaces had smaller effects on mortality. Compliance was estimated to increase the average life expectancy by 360 (95% CI: 219, 493) days and result in economic savings of 9.3 (95% CI: 4.9, 13.2) billion EUR/year. PA factors and environmental exposures can be modified by changes in urban and transport planning. We emphasize the need for a) the reduction of motorized traffic through the promotion of active and public transport and b) the provision of green infrastructure, both of which are suggested to provide opportunities for PA and for mitigation of air pollution, noise, and heat. Citation: Mueller N, Rojas-Rueda D, Basagaña X, Cirach M, Cole-Hunter T, Dadvand P, Donaire-Gonzalez D, Foraster M

  8. Impact of age at diagnosis and duration of type 2 diabetes on mortality in Australia 1997-2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huo, Lili; Magliano, Dianna J; Rancière, Fanny

    2018-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Current evidence suggests that type 2 diabetes may have a greater impact on those with earlier diagnosis (longer duration of disease), but data are limited. We examined the effect of age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes on the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality over 15...... to cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and all other causes were identified. Poisson regression was used to model mortality rates by sex, current age, age at diagnosis, diabetes duration and calendar time. RESULTS: The median age at registration on the NDSS was 60.2 years (interquartile range [IQR] 50...... mortality was constant. All mortality rates increased exponentially with age. An earlier diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (longer duration of disease) was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality, primarily driven by CVD mortality. A 10 year earlier diagnosis (equivalent to 10 years' longer duration...

  9. Minimization of heatwave morbidity and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravchenko, Julia; Abernethy, Amy P; Fawzy, Maria; Lyerly, H Kim

    2013-03-01

    Global climate change is projected to increase the frequency and duration of periods of extremely high temperatures. Both the general populace and public health authorities often underestimate the impact of high temperatures on human health. To highlight the vulnerable populations and illustrate approaches to minimization of health impacts of extreme heat, the authors reviewed the studies of heat-related morbidity and mortality for high-risk populations in the U.S. and Europe from 1958 to 2012. Heat exposure not only can cause heat exhaustion and heat stroke but also can exacerbate a wide range of medical conditions. Vulnerable populations, such as older adults; children; outdoor laborers; some racial and ethnic subgroups (particularly those with low SES); people with chronic diseases; and those who are socially or geographically isolated, have increased morbidity and mortality during extreme heat. In addition to ambient temperature, heat-related health hazards are exacerbated by air pollution, high humidity, and lack of air-conditioning. Consequently, a comprehensive approach to minimize the health effects of extreme heat is required and must address educating the public of the risks and optimizing heatwave response plans, which include improving access to environmentally controlled public havens, adaptation of social services to address the challenges required during extreme heat, and consistent monitoring of morbidity and mortality during periods of extreme temperatures. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. History of the mammography and its impact in morbi-mortality due to breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliva, Marcia; Sartori, Eugenia; Gotta, Cesar

    2004-01-01

    On this historical article the authors offer a bibliographic revision of the evolution of breast radiological diagnosis over time, and analyze its stages and the impact on the reduction of morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer. The evolution of breast pathology diagnosis started several centuries ago but made rapid progress since the development of the X-rays (Salomon 1913). The appearance of the mammographic technique (Leborgne 1958, Gross 1966) is paramount in the history of the diagnosis and prevention of breast pathology. After the generalization and systematization of its use, it became the first method for an effective prevention and an early detection of breast cancer. (author)

  11. Hurricane & Tropical Storm Impacts over the South Florida Metropolitan Area: Mortality & Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colon Pagan, I. C.

    2007-12-01

    Since 1985, the South Florida Metropolitan area (SFMA), which covers the counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, has been directly affected by 9 tropical cyclones: four tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. This continuous hurricane and tropical storm activity has awakened the conscience of the communities, government, and private sector, about the social vulnerability, in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and others. Several factors have also been significant enough to affect the vulnerability of the South Florida Metropolitan area, like its geographic location which is at the western part of the Atlantic hurricane track, with a surface area of 6,137 square miles, and elevation of 15 feet. And second, from the 2006 Census estimate, this metropolitan area is the 7th most populous area in the United States supporting almost 1,571 individuals per square mile. Mortality levels due to hurricanes and tropical storms have fluctuated over the last 21 years without any signal of a complete reduction, a phenomenon that can be related to both physical characteristics of the storms and government actions. The average annual death count remains almost the same from 4.10 between 1985 and 1995 to 4 from 1996 to 2006. However, the probability of occurrence of a direct impact of an atmospheric disturbance has increase from 0.3 to 0.6, with an average of three hurricane or tropical storm direct impacts for every five. This analysis suggests an increasing problem with regard to atmospheric disturbances-related deaths in the South Florida Metropolitan area. In other words, despite substantial increases in population during the last 21 years, the number of tropical cyclone-related deaths is not declining; it's just being segregated among more storms. Gaps between each impact can be related to mortality levels. When that time increases in five years or more, such as Bob and Andrew or Irene and Katrina, or decreases in weeks or months, such as Harvey and Irene or Katrina and Wilma

  12. Impact of reproductive laws on maternal mortality: the chilean natural experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Elard

    2013-05-01

    Improving maternal health and decreasing morbidity and mortality due to induced abortion are key endeavors in developing countries. One of the most controversial subjects surrounding interventions to improve maternal health is the effect of abortion laws. Chile offers a natural laboratory to perform an investigation on the determinants influencing maternal health in a large parallel time-series of maternal deaths, analyzing health and socioeconomic indicators, and legislative policies including abortion banning in 1989. Interestingly, abortion restriction in Chile was not associated with an increase in overall maternal mortality or with abortion deaths and total number of abortions. Contrary to the notion proposing a negative impact of restrictive abortion laws on maternal health, the abortion mortality ratio did not increase after the abortion ban in Chile. Rather, it decreased over 96 percent, from 10.8 to 0.39 per 100,000 live births. Thus, the Chilean natural experiment provides for the first time, strong evidence supporting the hypothesis that legalization of abortion is unnecessary to improve maternal health in Latin America.

  13. [Coding Causes of Death with IRIS Software. Impact in Navarre Mortality Statistic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floristán Floristán, Yugo; Delfrade Osinaga, Josu; Carrillo Prieto, Jesus; Aguirre Perez, Jesus; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi

    2016-08-02

    There are few studies that analyze changes in mortality statistics derived from the use of IRIS software, an automatic system for coding multiple causes of death and for the selection of the underlying cause of death, compared to manual coding. This study evaluated the impact of the use of IRIS in the Navarre mortality statistic. We proceeded to double coding 5,060 death certificates corresponding to residents in Navarra in 2014. We calculated coincidence between the two encodings for ICD10 chapters and for the list of causes of the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE-102) and we estimated the change on mortality rates. IRIS automatically coded 90% of death certificates. The coincidence to 4 characters and in the same chapter of the CIE10 was 79.1% and 92.0%, respectively. Furthermore, coincidence with the short INE-102 list was 88.3%. Higher matches were found in death certificate of people under 65 years. In comparison with manual coding there was an increase in deaths from endocrine diseases (31%), mental disorders (19%) and disease of nervous system (9%), while a decrease of genitourinary system diseases was observed (21%). The coincidence at level of ICD10 chapters coding by IRIS in comparison to manual coding was 9 out of 10 deaths, similar to what is observed in other studies. The implementation of IRIS has led to increased of endocrine diseases, especially diabetes and hyperlipidaemia, and mental disorders, especially dementias.

  14. Emergency medical readmission: long-term trends and impact on mortality.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Glynn, Nigel

    2011-04-01

    There is increasing emphasis on prevention of emergency medical readmissions. The broad pattern of acute medical readmissions was studied over a seven-year period and the impact of any readmission on 30-day mortality was recorded. Significant predictors of outcome, including co-morbidity and illness severity score, were entered into a multivariate regression model, adjusting the univariate estimates of the readmission status on mortality. In total, 23,114 consecutive acute medical patients were admitted between 2002-8; the overall readmission rate was 27%. Readmission independently predicted an increased 30-day mortality; the odds ratio, was 1.12 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09 to 1.14). This fell to 1.05 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.08) when adjusted for outcome predictors including acute illness severity. The trend for readmissions was to progressively increase over time; the median times between consecutive admissions formed an exponential time series. Efforts to reduce or avoid readmissions may depend on an ability to modify the underlying chronic disease.

  15. Cost and mortality impact of an algorithm-driven sepsis prediction system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Jacob; Hoffman, Jana; Barton, Christopher; Shimabukuro, David; Ries, Michael; Chettipally, Uli; Kerem, Yaniv; Jay, Melissa; Mataraso, Samson; Das, Ritankar

    2017-06-01

    To compute the financial and mortality impact of InSight, an algorithm-driven biomarker, which forecasts the onset of sepsis with minimal use of electronic health record data. This study compares InSight with existing sepsis screening tools and computes the differential life and cost savings associated with its use in the inpatient setting. To do so, mortality reduction is obtained from an increase in the number of sepsis cases correctly identified by InSight. Early sepsis detection by InSight is also associated with a reduction in length-of-stay, from which cost savings are directly computed. InSight identifies more true positive cases of severe sepsis, with fewer false alarms, than comparable methods. For an individual ICU with 50 beds, for example, it is determined that InSight annually saves 75 additional lives and reduces sepsis-related costs by $560,000. InSight performance results are derived from analysis of a single-center cohort. Mortality reduction results rely on a simplified use case, which fixes prediction times at 0, 1, and 2 h before sepsis onset, likely leading to under-estimates of lives saved. The corresponding cost reduction numbers are based on national averages for daily patient length-of-stay cost. InSight has the potential to reduce sepsis-related deaths and to lead to substantial cost savings for healthcare facilities.

  16. Impact of polystyrene microplastics on Daphnia magna mortality and reproduction in relation to food availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aljaibachi, Rana

    2018-01-01

    Microplastics (MPs) in the environment continue to be a growing area of concern in terms of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic life. Whilst increasing numbers of studies are providing important insights into microparticle behaviour and impacts in the marine environment, a paucity of information exists regarding the freshwater environment. This study focusses on the uptake, retention and the impact of 2 µm polystyrene MPs in the freshwater cladoceran Daphnia magna in relation to food intake (algae Chlorella vulgaris), with MP size chosen to approximately match the cell size of the algae. Daphnia were exposed to varied concentrations of MPs and algae. When exposed to a single concentration of MPs Daphnia almost immediately ate them in large quantities. However, the presence of algae, even at low concentrations, had a significant negative impact on MP uptake that was not in proportion to relative availability. As MP concentrations increased, intake did not if algae were present, even at higher concentrations of MPs. This suggests that Daphnia are selectively avoiding eating plastics. Adult Daphnia exposed to MPs for 21 days showed mortality after seven days of exposure in all treatments compared to the control. However significant differences were all related to algal concentration rather than to MP concentration. This suggests that where ample food is present, MPs have little effect on adults. There was also no impact on their reproduction. The neonate toxicity test confirmed previous results that mortality and reproduction was linked to availability of food rather than MP concentrations. This would make sense in light of our suggestion that Daphnia are selectively avoiding eating microplastics. PMID:29686944

  17. Impact of polystyrene microplastics on Daphnia magna mortality and reproduction in relation to food availability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Aljaibachi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Microplastics (MPs in the environment continue to be a growing area of concern in terms of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic life. Whilst increasing numbers of studies are providing important insights into microparticle behaviour and impacts in the marine environment, a paucity of information exists regarding the freshwater environment. This study focusses on the uptake, retention and the impact of 2 µm polystyrene MPs in the freshwater cladoceran Daphnia magna in relation to food intake (algae Chlorella vulgaris, with MP size chosen to approximately match the cell size of the algae. Daphnia were exposed to varied concentrations of MPs and algae. When exposed to a single concentration of MPs Daphnia almost immediately ate them in large quantities. However, the presence of algae, even at low concentrations, had a significant negative impact on MP uptake that was not in proportion to relative availability. As MP concentrations increased, intake did not if algae were present, even at higher concentrations of MPs. This suggests that Daphnia are selectively avoiding eating plastics. Adult Daphnia exposed to MPs for 21 days showed mortality after seven days of exposure in all treatments compared to the control. However significant differences were all related to algal concentration rather than to MP concentration. This suggests that where ample food is present, MPs have little effect on adults. There was also no impact on their reproduction. The neonate toxicity test confirmed previous results that mortality and reproduction was linked to availability of food rather than MP concentrations. This would make sense in light of our suggestion that Daphnia are selectively avoiding eating microplastics.

  18. Impact of mountain pine beetle induced mortality on forest carbon and water fluxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E Reed, David; Ewers, Brent E; Pendall, Elise

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying impacts of ecological disturbance on ecosystem carbon and water fluxes will improve predictive understanding of biosphere—atmosphere feedbacks. Tree mortality caused by mountain pine bark beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) is hypothesized to decrease photosynthesis and water flux to the atmosphere while increasing respiration at a rate proportional to mortality. This work uses data from an eddy-covariance flux tower in a bark beetle infested lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forest to test ecosystem responses during the outbreak. Analyses were conducted on components of carbon (C) and water fluxes in response to disturbance and environmental factors (solar radiation, soil water content and vapor pressure deficit). Maximum CO 2 uptake did not change as tree basal area mortality increased from 30 to 78% over three years of beetle disturbance. Growing season evapotranspiration varied among years while ecosystem water use efficiency (the ratio of net CO 2 uptake to water vapor loss) did not change. Between 2009 and 2011, canopy water conductance increased from 98.6 to 151.7 mmol H 2 O m −2 s −1 . Ecosystem light use efficiency of photosynthesis increased, with quantum yield increasing by 16% during the outbreak as light increased below the mature tree canopy and illuminated remaining vegetation more. Overall net ecosystem productivity was correlated with water flux and hence water availability. Average weekly ecosystem respiration, derived from light response curves and standard Ameriflux protocols for CO 2 flux partitioning into respiration and gross ecosystem productivity, did not change as mortality increased. Separate effects of increased respiration and photosynthesis efficiency largely canceled one another out, presumably due to increased diffuse light in the canopy and soil organic matter decomposition resulting in no change in net CO 2 exchange. These results agree with an emerging consensus in the literature demonstrating CO 2 and H 2 O dynamics

  19. Impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on morbidity and mortality after myocardial infarction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andell, Pontus; Koul, Sasha; Martinsson, Andreas; Sundström, Johan; Jernberg, Tomas; Smith, J Gustav; James, Stefan; Lindahl, Bertil; Erlinge, David

    2014-01-01

    Aim To gain a better understanding of the impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on long-term mortality in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) and identify areas where the clinical care for these patients may be improved. Methods Patients hospitalised for MI between 2005 and 2010 were identified from the nationwide Swedish SWEDEHEART registry. Patients with MI and a prior COPD hospital discharge diagnosis were compared to patients with MI without a prior COPD hospital discharge diagnosis for the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality at 1 year after MI. Secondary endpoints included rates of reinfarction, new-onset stroke, new-onset bleeding and new-onset heart failure at 1 year. Results A total of 81 191 MI patients were included, of which 4867 (6%) had a COPD hospital discharge diagnosis at baseline. Patients with COPD showed a significantly higher unadjusted 1-year mortality (24.6 vs 13.8%) as well as a higher rate of reinfarction, new-onset bleeding and new-onset heart failure post-MI. After adjustment for potential confounders, including comorbidities and treatment, the patients with COPD still showed a significantly higher 1-year mortality (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.21) as well as a higher rate of new-onset heart failure (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.47), whereas no significant association between COPD and myocardial reinfarction or new-onset bleeding remained. Conclusions In this nationwide contemporary study, patients with COPD frequently had an atypical presentation, less often underwent revascularisation and less often received guideline-recommended secondary preventive medications of established benefit. Prior COPD was associated with a higher 1-year mortality and a higher risk of subsequent new-onset heart failure after MI. The association seems to be mainly explained by differences in background characteristics, comorbidities and treatment, although a minor part might be explained by COPD in itself. Improved in-hospital MI

  20. Impact of Operative Delay on Sepsis and Mortality in Patients with Acute Diverticulitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin F. Irons

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Ideal operative timing for non-emergent, acute diverticulitis (AD remains unclear. Medical management is initially attempted to convert a high risk urgent surgery to a less morbid elective surgery, or to avoid surgery altogether. A large proportion of patients will fail medical treatment and require colectomy. Objectives To evaluate the effect of operative delay on sepsis and mortality in patients with AD. Methods Patients from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP database who underwent colectomy with a primary diagnosis of diverticulitis between 2005 and 2014 were included. Multiple patient variables were analyzed to see their combined effect on death and sepsis. Patients undergoing surgical intervention on hospital day 0, emergent cases and those with preoperative sepsis were excluded. The impact of operative delay on mortality and sepsis was evaluated using day from admission as the predictor of the primary outcomes. Secondary outcomes included urinary tract infection (UTI, pneumonia (PNA, need for blood transfusion, septic shock, return to the operating room, length of stay (LOS, readmission, wound dehiscence, and surgical site infections (SSI. Frequency of patient variables was recorded and a multiple variable logistic regression analysis was performed to control for possible confounders. Odds ratios (OR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated for primary and secondary outcomes. Results 32,399 patients underwent colectomy for AD on hospital day 1 - 20. Adjusted for other factors, days to operation was found to be a significant predictor for death (OR = 1.038, 95% CI 1.020 - 1.057; P < 0.0001 and sepsis (OR = 1.051, 95% CI, 1.035 - 1.067; P < 0.0001. Each day in which surgical intervention was delayed was associated with a 3.8% increased risk of mortality and 5.1% increased risk of sepsis. Delay of surgery was also associated with an increased risk of blood transfusion

  1. The Impact of Abdominal Fat Levels on All-Cause Mortality Risk in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takahiro Yajima

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Although an increased body mass index is associated with lower mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD, known as the “obesity paradox,” the relationship of abdominal fat levels with all-cause mortality has rarely been studied. We investigated the impact of computed-tomography-measured abdominal fat levels (visceral fat area (VFA and subcutaneous fat area (SFA on all-cause mortality in this population. A total of 201 patients undergoing HD were enrolled and cross-classified by VFA and SFA levels according to each cutoff point, VFA of 78.7 cm2 and SFA of 93.2 cm2, based on the receiver operator characteristic (ROC curve as following; group 1 (G1: lower VFA and lower SFA, G2: higher VFA and lower SFA, G3: lower VFA and higher SFA, G4: higher VFA and higher SFA. During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 67 patients died. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed 10-year survival rates of 29.0%, 50.0%, 62.6%, and 72.4% in G1, G2, G3, and G4 (p < 0.0001, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio was 0.30 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.05–1.09, p = 0.070 for G2 vs. G1, 0.37 (95% CI 0.18–0.76, p = 0.0065 for G3 vs. G1, and 0.21 (95% CI 0.07–0.62, p = 0.0035 for G4 vs. G1, respectively. In conclusion, combined SFA and VFA levels were negatively associated with risks for all-cause mortality in patients undergoing HD. These results are a manifestation of the “obesity paradox.”

  2. The impact of infection on mortality in octogenarians who were admitted due to acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keskin, Kudret; Çetinkal, Gökhan; Sığırcı, Serhat; Yıldız, Süleyman Sezai; Çetin, Şükrü; Gürdal, Ahmet; Kocaş, Betül Balaban; Kılıçkesmez, Kadriye Orta

    The prevalence of coronary artery disease is on the rise as the life expectancy of the population increases. However, treatment of acute coronary syndrome in the elderly patients has its own problems that have not been thoroughly addressed in the clinical trials. Since these patients are generally fragile and have multiple co-morbidities, the course of acute coronary syndrome can frequently be complicated. Infection, which co-exists either at the initial presentation or is acquired during the hospital stay, is a condition about which there is little published data. Therefore, in our study, we wanted to assess the impact of infection on mortality in octogenarians who have acute coronary syndrome METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the data of 174 octogenarians who had been admitted to the coronary care unit with acute coronary syndrome. All-cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint of the study. Overall 53 octogenarian patients (30.5%) had an infection along with acute coronary syndrome. The mean duration of follow-up was 10 months (1-25 months). Both in-hospital and long-term mortality were higher in these patients (18.9% vs 6.6%, p = 0.01; 52.8% vs 27.5%, p < 0.01; respectively). Kaplan-Meier analysis also showed lower cumulative survival. (p [log-rank] = 0.002). In multivariate Cox regression analysis; undergoing coronary angiography, infection (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.15-3.34, p = 0.01), left ventricular ejection fraction and maximum C reactive protein levels were found as independent predictors of long-term survival. Infection in octogenarians who were admitted due to acute coronary syndrome was frequent and increased their mortality substantially. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Pediatric heat-related illness: recommendations for prevention and management [digest].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Roberta J; Kim, Tommy Y; Chaudhari, Pradip

    2017-08-22

    Infants, children, and adolescents are at increased risk for heat-related illness due to their inability to remove themselves from dangerous environments. Evidence shows that morbidity and mortality from heat illness is related to the length of time core temperature is elevated, so rapid reduction and accurate serial measurements are crucial to prevention of organ system damage and death. The primary methods of patient cooling are conduction (ice-water immersion, cold packs) and convection (moisture and moving air). The choice of method used may depend on availability of equipment, but there is evidence that can guide optimal use of resources. This issue presents evidence-based recommendations and best practices in heat-illness resuscitation, including managing children who are obese, have special needs or take medications, and advocacy for prevention strategies. [Points & Pearls is a digest of Pediatric Emergency Medicine Practice].

  4. Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratios: Sensitivity Analyses on the Impact of Coding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottle, Alex; Jarman, Brian; Aylin, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Introduction Hospital standardized mortality ratios (HSMRs) are derived from administrative databases and cover 80 percent of in-hospital deaths with adjustment for available case mix variables. They have been criticized for being sensitive to issues such as clinical coding but on the basis of limited quantitative evidence. Methods In a set of sensitivity analyses, we compared regular HSMRs with HSMRs resulting from a variety of changes, such as a patient-based measure, not adjusting for comorbidity, not adjusting for palliative care, excluding unplanned zero-day stays ending in live discharge, and using more or fewer diagnoses. Results Overall, regular and variant HSMRs were highly correlated (ρ > 0.8), but differences of up to 10 points were common. Two hospitals were particularly affected when palliative care was excluded from the risk models. Excluding unplanned stays ending in same-day live discharge had the least impact despite their high frequency. The largest impacts were seen when capturing postdischarge deaths and using just five high-mortality diagnosis groups. Conclusions HSMRs in most hospitals changed by only small amounts from the various adjustment methods tried here, though small-to-medium changes were not uncommon. However, the position relative to funnel plot control limits could move in a significant minority even with modest changes in the HSMR. PMID:21790587

  5. Longer-Term Impact of High and Low Temperature on Mortality: An International Study to Clarify Length of Mortality Displacement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Michelle L.; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Leon Guo, Yue-Liang; Guo, Yuming; Goodman, Patrick; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Lavigne, Eric; Michelozzi, Paola; Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo; Schwartz, Joel; Scortichini, Matteo; Sera, Francesco; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; Wu, Chang-fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Zeka, Ariana; Gasparrini, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Background: In many places, daily mortality has been shown to increase after days with particularly high or low temperatures, but such daily time-series studies cannot identify whether such increases reflect substantial life shortening or short-term displacement of deaths (harvesting). Objectives: To clarify this issue, we estimated the association between annual mortality and annual summaries of heat and cold in 278 locations from 12 countries. Methods: Indices of annual heat and cold were used as predictors in regressions of annual mortality in each location, allowing for trends over time and clustering of annual count anomalies by country and pooling estimates using meta-regression. We used two indices of annual heat and cold based on preliminary standard daily analyses: a) mean annual degrees above/below minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and b) estimated fractions of deaths attributed to heat and cold. The first index was simpler and matched previous related research; the second was added because it allowed the interpretation that coefficients equal to 0 and 1 are consistent with none (0) or all (1) of the deaths attributable in daily analyses being displaced by at least 1 y. Results: On average, regression coefficients of annual mortality on heat and cold mean degrees were 1.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3, 3.1] and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6, 1.6) per degree, respectively, and daily attributable fractions were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.3) and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.4). The proximity of the latter coefficients to 1.0 provides evidence that most deaths found attributable to heat and cold in daily analyses were brought forward by at least 1 y. Estimates were broadly robust to alternative model assumptions. Conclusions: These results provide strong evidence that most deaths associated in daily analyses with heat and cold are displaced by at least 1 y. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1756 PMID:29084393

  6. The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on premature mortality, cancer mortality, and hospitalization in Slovenia, 1997-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, Frank R

    2015-04-01

    In Slovenia during the period 2000-2010, the number of years of potential life lost before the age of 70 years per 100,000 population under 70 years of age declined 25 %. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that pharmaceutical innovation played a key role in reducing premature mortality from all diseases in Slovenia, and to examine the effects of pharmaceutical innovation on the age-standardized number of cancer deaths and on hospitalization from all diseases. Estimates and other data were used to calculate the incremental cost effectiveness of pharmaceutical innovation in Slovenia. Longitudinal disease-level data was analyzed to determine whether diseases for which there was greater pharmaceutical innovation-a larger increase in the number of new chemical entities (NCEs) previously launched-had larger declines in premature mortality, the age-standardized number of cancer deaths, and the number of hospital discharges. My methodology controls for the effects of macroeconomic trends and overall changes in the healthcare system. Premature mortality from a disease is inversely related to the number of NCEs launched more than 5 years earlier. On average, the introduction of an additional NCE for a disease reduced premature mortality from the disease by 2.4 % 7 years later. The age-standardized number of cancer deaths is inversely related to the number of NCEs launched 1-6 years earlier, conditional on the age-standardized number of new cancer cases diagnosed 0-2 years earlier. On average, the launch of an NCE reduced the number of hospital discharges 1 year later by approximately 1.5 %. The estimates imply that approximately two-thirds of the 2000-2010 decline in premature mortality was due to pharmaceutical innovation. If no NCEs had been launched in Slovenia during 1992-2003, the age-standardized number of cancer deaths in 2008 would have been 12.2 % higher. The NCEs launched in Slovenia during 2003-2009 are estimated to have reduced the number of

  7. Impact of statins and beta-blocker therapy on mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackstone, Eugene; Kapadia, Samir R.

    2015-01-01

    Background We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients after first-time isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) and assessed the impact of a discharge regimen including beta-blockers and statin therapy and their relationship to long-term all cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Methods We identified patients age >18 years, undergoing first time isolated CABG from 1993 to 2005. Patients were identified using the Cardiovascular Information Registry (CVIR). We collected follow-up information at 30, 60, 90 days and yearly follow-up. The registry is approved for use in research by the institutional review broad. Results We identified 5,205 patients who underwent single isolated CABG between January 1993 and December 2005. The mean age was 64.5±9.7 years and over 70% were male. There was a significant difference in the low density lipoproteins (LDL) concentration between those with or without statin medications (134±41.9 mg/dL) (no statin) vs. 126±44.8 mg/dL (with statin), P=0.001. A discharge regimen with statin therapy was associated with and overall reduction in 30 day, 1 year and long-term mortality. In addition, overall the triple ischemic endpoint of death, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke was also significantly lower in the statin vs. no-statin group. In addition, statin and beta-blockers exerted synergistic effect on overall mortality outcomes short-term and in the long-term. We note that the predictors of overall death include no therapy with statin therapy and age [hazard ratios (HR) 1.1, 95% CI: 1.04-1.078, P<0.001] and presence of renal failure (HR 2.0, P=0.005). The estimated 11-year Kaplan Meier curves for mortality between the two groups starts to diverge immediately post discharge after single isolated CABG and continue to diverge through out the follow-up period. Conclusions A post-discharge regimen of statins independently reduces overall and 1 year mortality. These results confirm those of

  8. A validated risk score to estimate mortality risk in patients with dementia and pneumonia: barriers to clinical impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steen, J.T.; Albers, G.; Strunk, E.; Muller, M.T.; Ribbe, M.W.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The clinical impact of risk score use in end-of-life settings is unknown, with reports limited to technical properties. Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study to evaluate clinical impact of a validated mortality risk score aimed at informing prognosis and supporting clinicians in

  9. Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the united states during 1975-2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Moolgavkar (Suresh); N.H. Holford; D.T. Levy (David); C.Y. Kong (Chung Yin); M. Foy (Millennia); L. Clarke (Lauren); J. Jeon (Jihyoun); W. Hazelton (William); R. Meza (Rafael); F.W. Schultz (Frank); W.J. McCarthy (William); R. Boer (Rob); O. Gorlova (Olga); G.S. Gazelle (Scott); M. Kimmel (Marek); P.M. McMahon (Pamela); H.J. de Koning (Harry); E. Feuer (Eric)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground Considerable effort has been expended on tobacco control strategies in the United States since the mid-1950s. However, we have little quantitative information on how changes in smoking behaviors have impacted lung cancer mortality. We quantified the cumulative impact of

  10. Using indirect methods to understand the impact of forced migration on long-term under-five mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Kavita; Karunakara, Unni; Burnham, Gilbert; Hill, Kenneth

    2005-11-01

    Despite the large numbers of displaced persons and the often-lengthy periods of displacement, little is known about the impact of forced migration on long-term under-five mortality. This paper looks at the Brass Method (and adaptations of this method) and the Preceding Birth Technique in combination with a classification of women by their migration and reproductive histories, in order to study the impact of forced migration on under-five mortality. Data came from the Demography of Forced Migration Project, a study on mortality, fertility and violence in the refugee and host populations of Arua District, Uganda and Yei River District, Sudan. Results indicate that women who did not migrate in a situation of conflict and women who repatriated before the age of 15, had children with the highest under-five mortality rates compared with women who were currently refugees and women who repatriated after the age of 15.

  11. High nymphal host density and mortality negatively impact parasitoid complex during an insect herbivore outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Aidan A G; Johnson, Scott N; Cook, James M; Riegler, Markus

    2017-08-26

    Insect herbivore outbreaks frequently occur and this may be due to factors that restrict top-down control by parasitoids, for example, host-parasitoid asynchrony, hyperparasitization, resource limitation and climate. Few studies have examined host-parasitoid density relationships during an insect herbivore outbreak in a natural ecosystem with diverse parasitoids. We studied parasitization patterns of Cardiaspina psyllids during an outbreak in a Eucalyptus woodland. First, we established the trophic roles of the parasitoids through a species-specific multiplex PCR approach on mummies from which parasitoids emerged. Then, we assessed host-parasitoid density relationships across three spatial scales (leaf, tree and site) over one year. We detected four endoparasitoid species of the family Encyrtidae (Hymenoptera); two primary parasitoid and one heteronomous hyperparasitoid Psyllaephagus species (the latter with female development as a primary parasitoid and male development as a hyperparasitoid), and the hyperparasitoid Coccidoctonus psyllae. Parasitoid development was host-synchronized, although synchrony between sites appeared constrained during winter (due to temperature differences). Parasitization was predominantly driven by one primary parasitoid species and was mostly inversely host-density dependent across the spatial scales. Hyperparasitization by C. psyllae was psyllid-density dependent at the site scale, however, this only impacted the rarer primary parasitoid. High larval parasitoid mortality due to density-dependent nymphal psyllid mortality (a consequence of resource limitation) compounded by a summer heat wave was incorporated in the assessment and resulted in density independence of host-parasitoid relationships. As such, high larval parasitoid mortality during insect herbivore outbreaks may contribute to the absence of host density-dependent parasitization during outbreak events. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  12. Combined impact of lifestyle-related factors on total and cause-specific mortality among Chinese women: prospective cohort study.

    OpenAIRE

    Sarah J Nechuta; Xiao-Ou Shu; Hong-Lan Li; Gong Yang; Yong-Bing Xiang; Hui Cai; Wong-Ho Chow; Butian Ji; Xianglan Zhang; Wanqing Wen; Yu-Tang Gao; Wei Zheng

    2010-01-01

    Editors' Summary Background It is well established that lifestyle-related factors, such as limited physical activity, unhealthy diets, excessive alcohol consumption, and exposure to tobacco smoke are linked to an increased risk of many chronic diseases and premature death. However, few studies have investigated the combined impact of lifestyle-related factors and mortality outcomes, and most of such studies of combinations of established lifestyle factors and mortality have been conducted in ...

  13. Remaining missed opportunities of child survival in Peru: modelling mortality impact of universal and equitable coverage of proven interventions

    OpenAIRE

    Yvonne Tam; Luis Huicho; Carlos A. Huayanay-Espinoza; María Clara Restrepo-Méndez

    2016-01-01

    Background Peru has made great improvements in reducing stunting and child mortality in the past decade, and has reached the Millennium Development Goals 1 and 4. The remaining challenges or missed opportunities for child survival needs to be identified and quantified, in order to guide the next steps to further improve child survival in Peru. Methods We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to project the mortality impact of proven interventions reaching every women and child in need, and the mor...

  14. Impact of Secondary Prevention on Mortality after a First Ischemic Stroke in Puerto Rico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Maria E; Marsh, Wallace; Felici-Giovanini, Marcos E; Rodríguez-Benitez, Rosa J; Zevallos, Juan C

    2017-03-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of the prescription of secondary prevention therapies on mortality in Puerto Rican patients hospitalized with a first ischemic stroke. This was a retrospective secondary data analysis of the 2007 and 2009 Puerto Rico Stroke Registry electronic database. Information was obtained from the medical charts of patients discharged with ICD-9 codes 434 and 436 from 20 hospitals located in Puerto Rico. Descriptive analyses were conducted for demographics and comorbidities. Chi2 statistics compared the proportion of patients prescribed secondary prevention therapy and the proportion of patients not prescribed secondary prevention therapy. Lastly, survival rates were calculated from 2007 up to and including December 2010. The mean age of the 3,965 patients was 70 (±14) years. Secondary prevention therapy was prescribed to only 1% of the patients. The most frequent comorbidities were hypertension (85%), diabetes (52%), and hyperlipidemia (25%). The case fatality rate for patients prescribed secondary prevention therapy was 16%, compared to 26% for patients not prescribed secondary prevention therapy (p<0.01). The mean survival for stroke patients prescribed secondary preventions was 450 days (95% CI;182−718), compared to 266 days (95% CI; 244−287) for those not prescribed secondary prevention therapy (p = 0.175). A low percentage of patients with a first ischemic stroke were prescribed secondary prevention therapy. While not statistically significant, survival analysis suggests that secondary prevention therapy decreased mortality in patients with a stroke.

  15. The Impact of Exercise on Cancer Mortality, Recurrence, and Treatment-Related Adverse Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormie, Prue; Zopf, Eva M; Zhang, Xiaochen; Schmitz, Kathryn H

    2017-01-01

    The combination of an increasing number of new cancer cases and improving survival rates has led to a large and rapidly growing population with unique health-care requirements. Exercise has been proposed as a strategy to help address the issues faced by cancer patients. Supported by a growing body of research, major health organizations commonly identify the importance of incorporating exercise in cancer care and advise patients to be physically active. This systematic review comprehensively summarizes the available epidemiologic and randomized controlled trial evidence investigating the role of exercise in the management of cancer. Literature searches focused on determining the potential impact of exercise on 1) cancer mortality and recurrence and 2) adverse effects of cancer and its treatment. A total of 100 studies were reviewed involving thousands of individual patients whose exercise behavior was assessed following the diagnosis of any type of cancer. Compared with patients who performed no/less exercise, patients who exercised following a diagnosis of cancer were observed to have a lower relative risk of cancer mortality and recurrence and experienced fewer/less severe adverse effects. The findings of this review support the view that exercise is an important adjunct therapy in the management of cancer. Implications on cancer care policy and practice are discussed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. The impact of obesity on US mortality levels: the importance of age and cohort factors in population estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masters, Ryan K; Reither, Eric N; Powers, Daniel A; Yang, Y Claire; Burger, Andrew E; Link, Bruce G

    2013-10-01

    To estimate the percentage of excess death for US Black and White men and women associated with high body mass, we examined the combined effects of age variation in the obesity-mortality relationship and cohort variation in age-specific obesity prevalence. We examined 19 National Health Interview Survey waves linked to individual National Death Index mortality records, 1986-2006, for age and cohort patterns in the population-level association between obesity and US adult mortality. The estimated percentage of adult deaths between 1986 and 2006 associated with overweight and obesity was 5.0% and 15.6% for Black and White men, and 26.8% and 21.7% for Black and White women, respectively. We found a substantially stronger association than previous research between obesity and mortality risk at older ages, and an increasing percentage of mortality attributable to obesity across birth cohorts. Previous research has likely underestimated obesity's impact on US mortality. Methods attentive to cohort variation in obesity prevalence and age variation in obesity's effect on mortality risk suggest that obesity significantly shapes US mortality levels, placing it at the forefront of concern for public health action.

  17. Prioritizing child health interventions in Ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristine Husøy Onarheim

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The fourth Millennium Development Goal calls for a two-thirds reduction in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015. Under-5 mortality rate is declining, but many countries are still far from achieving the goal. Effective child health interventions that could reduce child mortality exist, but national decision-makers lack contextual information for priority setting in their respective resource-constrained settings. We estimate the potential health impact of increasing coverage of 14 selected health interventions on child mortality in Ethiopia (2011-2015. We also explore the impact on life expectancy and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate potential impact of scaling-up 14 health interventions in Ethiopia (2011-2015. Interventions are scaled-up to 1 government target levels, 2 90% coverage and 3 90% coverage of the five interventions with the highest impact. Under-5 mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate and deaths averted are primary outcome measures. We used modified life tables to estimate impact on life expectancy at birth and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health. Under-5 mortality rate declines from 101.0 in 2011 to 68.8, 42.1 and 56.7 per 1000 live births under these three scenarios. Prioritizing child health would also increase life expectancy at birth from expected 60.5 years in 2015 to 62.5, 64.2 and 63.4 years and reduce inequality in age of death (Gini(health substantially from 0.24 to 0.21, 0.18 and 0.19. CONCLUSIONS: The Millennium Development Goal for child health is reachable in Ethiopia. Prioritizing child health would also increase total life expectancy at birth and reduce inequality in age of death substantially (Gini(health.

  18. Impact of Age at Smoking Initiation on Smoking-Related Morbidity and All-Cause Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Seung Hee; Stommel, Manfred

    2017-07-01

    Using a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults, the aims of this study were to examine the impact of early smoking initiation on the development of self-reported smoking-related morbidity and all-cause mortality. National Health Interview Survey data from 1997 through 2005 were linked to the National Death Index with follow-up to December 31, 2011. Two primary dependent variables were smoking-related morbidity and all-cause mortality; the primary independent variable was age of smoking initiation. The analyses included U.S. population of current and former smokers aged ≥30 years (N=90,278; population estimate, 73.4 million). The analysis relied on fitting logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models. Among the U.S. population of smokers, 7.3% started smoking before age 13 years, 11.0% at ages 13-14 years, 24.2% at ages 15-16 years, 24.5% at ages 17-18 years, 14.5% at ages 19-20 years, and 18.5% at ages ≥21 years. Early smoking initiation before age 13 years was associated with increased risks for cardiovascular/metabolic (OR=1.67) and pulmonary (OR=1.79) diseases as well as smoking-related cancers (OR=2.1) among current smokers; the risks among former smokers were cardiovascular/metabolic (OR=1.38); pulmonary (OR=1.89); and cancers (OR=1.44). Elevated mortality was also related to early smoking initiation among both current (hazard ratio, 1.18) and former smokers (hazard ratio, 1.19). Early smoking initiation increases risks of experiencing smoking-related morbidities and all-cause mortality. These risks are independent of demographic characteristics, SES, health behaviors, and subsequent smoking intensity. Comprehensive tobacco control programs should be implemented to prevent smoking initiation and promote cessation among youth. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Skipping one or more dialysis sessions significantly increases mortality: measuring the impact of non-adherence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Gottlieb

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Non-adherence to the prescribed dialysis sessions frequency ranges from 2% to 50% of patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of detecting and measuring the non-adherence to the prescribed dialysis frequency and to determine the importance of a multidisciplinary approach with the aim of improving adherence. Methods: longitudinal cohort study including 8,164 prevalent hemodialysis patients in April 2010, with more than 90 days of treatment, in Fresenius Medical Care Argentina units that were monitored for 3 years. The survey evaluated: interruption of at least one dialysis session in a month or reduction at least 10 minutes of a dialysis session in a month, during 6 months prior to the survey. Relative mortality risks were evaluated among groups. Results: 648 patients (7.9% interrupted dialysis sessions: 320 (3.9% interrupted one session per month and 328 (4.01% interrupted more than one session per month. After 3 years monitoring, 349 patients (53.8 % remained active in hemodialysis and 299 were inactive due to different reasons: 206 deceased (31.8 %, 47 transfers or monitoring losses (7.25 %, 36 transplanted (5.55 %, 8 changes to PD modality (1.2% and 2 recovered their kidney function (0.3 %.Interrupting one session per month significantly increased the mortality risk comparing both groups (interrupters and non-interrupters: RR 2.65 (IC 95% 2.24 – 3.14. Interrupting more than one dialysis session also increased significantly mortality risk comparing to the non-interrupters: RR 2.8 (IC 95% 2.39 – 3.28. After 3 years monitoring, 41.6 % of interrupters at the beginning had improved their adherence through a multidisciplinary program of quality improvement. Conclusion: Global mortality was greater among patients who interrupted dialysis sessions. A considerable proportion of interrupter patients at the beginning modified their behavior through the implementation of a multidisciplinary program of quality

  20. Impact of Infrastructure on Mortality in Marginalised and Segregated Communities in the Slovak Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kováč, Viliam; Gavurová, Beáta

    2017-12-01

    Poverty and social exclusion is measured through different criteria and one of them is the health sector. The relationship between Roma population and the health sector is on the edge of researchers' interest in the Slovak Republic. The purpose of this paper is a quantification of the regional disparities in the development of mortality which is causally linked with selected infrastructural determinants - namely access to water and sewerage. These determinants differently participate in the structure of mortality in marginalised and segregated communities and they deepen regional disparities in health. It is a spatial analysis of the districts of the Slovak Republic. The data from the Atlas of Roma communities in Slovakia 2013 is applied. Through the multiple linear regression model the relationship between mortality of the Roma population and water and sewerage availability in the Roma settlements is examined. Similarity between the districts is measured by the Euclidean metric system. The most appropriate district for representing the Slovak Republic average is the Dunajská Streda district in a field of arithmetic mean and the Veľký Krtíš district in a field of median value. The outermost district is represented by the Košice-okolie district, conversely, the Trnava district is the closest to the rest of the Slovak Republic. The highest statistically significant impacts on mortality are explored in public water supply extension plan and public sewerage supply extension plan. It seems that water play a greater role in determining health of Roma population. The highest number of inhabitants with supplied public water and public sewerage is kept by the Kežmarok district, the Košice district, and the Spišská Nová Ves district. Our results can be beneficial for health decision making, since in the Strategic Framework for Health of the Slovak Republic metrics for measuring and evaluating health aspects in Roma communities absent and that prevents them to be

  1. Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2018-03-01

    In this work, the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1 °C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e., when UTCI is above 26 and 32 °C. The UTCI's ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health.

  2. Evaluating the impact a proposed family planning model would have on maternal and infant mortality in Afghanistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Ahmad Masoud; Wade, Benjamin; Riley, William

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the potential impact a proposed family planning model would have on reducing maternal and infant mortality in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has a high total fertility rate, high infant mortality rate, and high maternal mortality rate. Afghanistan also has tremendous socio-cultural barriers to and misconceptions about family planning services. We applied predictive statistical models to a proposed family planning model for Afghanistan to better understand the impact increased family planning can have on Afghanistan's maternal mortality rate and infant mortality rate. We further developed a sensitivity analysis that illustrates the number of maternal and infant deaths that can be averted over 5 years according to different increases in contraceptive prevalence rates. Incrementally increasing contraceptive prevalence rates in Afghanistan from 10% to 60% over the course of 5 years could prevent 11,653 maternal deaths and 317,084 infant deaths, a total of 328,737 maternal and infant deaths averted. Achieving goals in reducing maternal and infant mortality rates in Afghanistan requires a culturally relevant approach to family planning that will be supported by the population. The family planning model for Afghanistan presents such a solution and holds the potential to prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Heat-Related Hospitalizations in Older Adults: An Amplified Effect of the First Seasonal Heatwave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liss, Alexander; Wu, Ruiruo; Chui, Kenneth Kwan Ho; Naumova, Elena N.

    2017-01-01

    Older adults are highly vulnerable to the detriment of extreme weather. The rapid non-linear increase in heat-related morbidity is difficult to quantify, hindering the attribution of direct effects of exposure on severe health outcomes. We examine the effects of ambient temperatures on heat-related hospitalizations (HH) among the elderly in presence of strong seasonality and by assessing the effects caused by the first and subsequent seasonal heatwaves. We empirically derived the thresholds for a heatwave episode in Boston MSA based on 16 years of daily observations. We compared the health risks of heatwaves using the proposed and four alternative definitions. 701 cases of HH in older residents of Boston area were examined using harmonic regression models, designed to capture the non-linear effects of ambient temperatures and heatwave episodes when the night-time temperature is above 65.5 °F for 3 consecutive nights. The overall relative risk of HH associated with a heatwave episode was 6.9 [95%CI:4.8-9.8]. The relative risk of HH associated with the first heatwave increases up to 13.3 [95%CI:7.4-24.0]. The risk declined to 3.7 [95%CI:2.4-5.8] for the subsequent heatwave. Four other commonly used heatwave definitions confirmed these findings. Public health actions have to target the first heatwave to maximize the impact of preventive measures.

  4. Using inventory data to determine the impact of drought on tree mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greg C. Liknes; Christopher W. Woodall; Charles H. Perry

    2012-01-01

    Drought has been the subject of numerous recent studies that hint at an acceleration of tree mortality due to climate change. In particular, a recent global survey of tree mortality events implicates drought as the cause of quaking aspen mortality in Minnesota, USA in 2007. In this study, data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the USDA Forest Service...

  5. Impact of rotavirus vaccination on child mortality, morbidity, and rotavirus-related hospitalizations in Bolivia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inchauste, Lucia; Patzi, Maritza; Halvorsen, Kjetil; Solano, Susana; Montesano, Raul; Iñiguez, Volga

    2017-08-01

    The public health impact of rotavirus vaccination in countries with high child mortality rates remains to be established. The RV1 rotavirus vaccine was introduced in Bolivia in August 2008. This study describes the trends in deaths, hospitalizations, and healthcare visits due to acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and in rotavirus-related hospitalizations, among children rotavirus-related AGE was assessed using data from the active surveillance hospitals. Compared with the 2001-2008 pre-vaccine baseline, the mean number of rotavirus-related hospitalizations was reduced by 40.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 21.7-66.4%) among children rotavirus disease. Over the post-vaccine period, changes in rotavirus epidemiology were observed, manifested by variations in seasonality and by a shift in the mean age of those with rotavirus infection. The significant decrease in main AGE-related health indicators in children rotavirus vaccine provides evidence of a substantial public health impact of rotavirus vaccination in Bolivia, as a measure for protecting children against AGE. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Remaining missed opportunities of child survival in Peru: modelling mortality impact of universal and equitable coverage of proven interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Yvonne; Huicho, Luis; Huayanay-Espinoza, Carlos A; Restrepo-Méndez, María Clara

    2016-10-04

    Peru has made great improvements in reducing stunting and child mortality in the past decade, and has reached the Millennium Development Goals 1 and 4. The remaining challenges or missed opportunities for child survival needs to be identified and quantified, in order to guide the next steps to further improve child survival in Peru. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to project the mortality impact of proven interventions reaching every women and child in need, and the mortality impact of eliminating inequalities in coverage distribution between wealth quintiles and urban-rural residence. Our analyses quantified the remaining missed opportunities in Peru, where prioritizing scale-up of facility-based case management for all small and sick babies will be most effective in mortality reduction, compared to other evidenced-based interventions that prevent maternal and child deaths. Eliminating coverage disparities between the poorest quintiles and the richest will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 22.0 and 40.6 %, while eliminating coverage disparities between those living in rural and urban areas will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 29.3 and 45.2 %. This projected neonatal mortality reduction achieved by eliminating coverage disparities is almost comparable to that already achieved by Peru over the past decade. Although Peru has made great strides in improving child survival, further improvement in child health, especially in newborn health can be achieved if there is universal and equitable coverage of proven, quality health facility-based interventions. The magnitude of reduction in mortality will be similar to what has been achieved in the past decade. Strengthening health system to identify, understand, and direct resources to the poor and rural areas will ensure that Peru achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

  7. Remaining missed opportunities of child survival in Peru: modelling mortality impact of universal and equitable coverage of proven interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Tam

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Peru has made great improvements in reducing stunting and child mortality in the past decade, and has reached the Millennium Development Goals 1 and 4. The remaining challenges or missed opportunities for child survival needs to be identified and quantified, in order to guide the next steps to further improve child survival in Peru. Methods We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST to project the mortality impact of proven interventions reaching every women and child in need, and the mortality impact of eliminating inequalities in coverage distribution between wealth quintiles and urban–rural residence. Results Our analyses quantified the remaining missed opportunities in Peru, where prioritizing scale-up of facility-based case management for all small and sick babies will be most effective in mortality reduction, compared to other evidenced-based interventions that prevent maternal and child deaths. Eliminating coverage disparities between the poorest quintiles and the richest will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 22.0 and 40.6 %, while eliminating coverage disparities between those living in rural and urban areas will reduce under-five and neonatal mortality by 29.3 and 45.2 %. This projected neonatal mortality reduction achieved by eliminating coverage disparities is almost comparable to that already achieved by Peru over the past decade. Conclusions Although Peru has made great strides in improving child survival, further improvement in child health, especially in newborn health can be achieved if there is universal and equitable coverage of proven, quality health facility-based interventions. The magnitude of reduction in mortality will be similar to what has been achieved in the past decade. Strengthening health system to identify, understand, and direct resources to the poor and rural areas will ensure that Peru achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

  8. Diabetes mellitus in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-The impact on mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Te-Wei Ho

    Full Text Available Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. There is evidence to support a connection between COPD and diabetes mellitus (DM, another common medical disorder. However, additional research is required to improve our knowledge of these relationships and their possible implications. In this study, we investigated the impact of DM on patient outcomes through the clinical course of COPD.We conducted a cohort study in patients from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database between 2000 and 2013. Patients with COPD were identified and assessed for pre-existing and incident DM. A Cox proportional hazards model was built to identify factors associated with incident DM and to explore the prognostic effects of DM on COPD patients. A propensity score method was used to match COPD patients with incident DM to controls without incident DM.Pre-existing DM was present in 332 (16% of 2015 COPD patients who had a significantly higher hazard ratio (HR [1.244, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.010-1.532] for mortality than that of the COPD patients without pre-existing DM. During the 10-year follow-up period, 304 (19% of 1568 COPD patients developed incident DM; comorbid hypertension (HR, 1.810; 95% CI, 1.363-2.403, cerebrovascular disease (HR, 1.517; 95% CI, 1.146-2.008 and coronary artery disease (HR, 1.408; 95% CI 1.089-1.820 were significant factors associated with incident DM. Survival was worse for the COPD patients with incident DM than for the matched controls without incident DM (Log-rank, p = 0.027.DM, either pre-existing or incident, was associated with worse outcomes in COPD patients. Targeted surveillance and management of DM may be important in clinical care of the COPD population.

  9. Impact of a blood conservation program on 30-day morbidity and mortality: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanan, Bala; Burns, Tammy L; Sugimoto, Jeffrey T; Forse, Robert Armour

    2014-03-01

    There are little published data on outcomes of blood conservation (BC) patients after noncardiac surgery. The objective of this study was to compare the surgical outcomes of patients enrolled in our BC program with that of the general population of surgical patients. BC patients at our institution undergoing various surgical procedures were identified from the 2007-2009 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database and compared with a cohort of conventional care (CC) patients matched by age, gender, and surgical procedure. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate 30-d postoperative outcomes. One hundred twenty BC patients were compared with 238 CC patients. The two groups were similar for all preoperative variables except smoking, which was lower in the BC group. On univariate analysis, BC patients had similar mean operating time (148 versus 155 min; P = 0.5), length of stay (5.9 versus 5.5 d; P = 0.7), and rate of return to the operating room (7.5% versus 5.5%; P = 0.4) compared with CC patients. BC and CC patients had similar 30-d morbidity (18% versus 14%; P = 0.3) and mortality rates (1.6% versus 1.3%; P = 1.0), respectively. On multivariable analysis, enrollment in the BC program had no impact on postoperative 30-d morbidity (odds ratio, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-4.47) or 30-d mortality (unadjusted odds ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.22-8.05). Short-term postoperative outcomes in BC patients are similar to the general population, and these patients should not be denied surgical treatment based on their unwillingness to receive blood products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Impact of body mass index on mortality and hospitalisation of patients with atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Jocasta; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Carrington, Melinda J; Wiley, Joshua F; Stewart, Simon

    2018-04-01

    Atrial fibrillation represents a substantial clinical and public health issue. The definitive impact of body mass index on prognosis of patients with chronic (persistent or permanent) atrial fibrillation remains undetermined. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of body mass index with health outcomes (mortality and re-hospitalisation) of patients with chronic atrial fibrillation. Using data from the Standard versus Atrial Fibrillation spEcific managemenT strategY (SAFETY) trial (a randomised controlled trial of home-based, atrial fibrillation-specific disease management), we performed post-hoc analyses of mortality and re-hospitalisation outcomes during minimum 24-month follow-up according to baseline body mass index profile. Of 297 participants (mean age 71±11 years, 47% female, mean body mass index 29.6±6.7 kg/m 2 ), 35.0% of participants were overweight (body mass index 25.0-29.9 kg/m 2 ) and 43.1% were obese (body mass index≥30 kg/m 2 ). During follow-up, n=42 died including 16/65 (24.6%) classified as normal body mass index, 16/104 (15.4%) classified as overweight and 10/128 (7.8%) classified as obese. Increasing body mass index was not associated with increased mortality but was associated with re-hospitalisation due to cardiovascular disease with greater length-of-stay (odds ratio 1.05; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.09, p=0.032). Obese individuals experienced increased unplanned admissions compared to overweight individuals (incidence rate ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.53-0.96, p=0.028), and increased cardiovascular-related (incidence rate ratio 0.58; 95% confidence interval 0.39-0.86, p=0.007) and all-cause admissions (incidence rate ratio 0.63; 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.89, p=0.008) compared to those classified as normal body mass index. Overweight and obesity were not associated with survival in patients with chronic atrial fibrillation but were associated with more frequent hospital care and prolonged stay.

  11. Assessing the potential impact of increased participation in higher education on mortality: evidence from 21 European populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulhánová, Ivana; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Judge, Ken; Looman, Caspar W N; Eikemo, Terje A; Bopp, Matthias; Deboosere, Patrick; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Rychtaříková, Jitka; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Menvielle, Gwenn; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2014-09-01

    Although higher education has been associated with lower mortality rates in many studies, the effect of potential improvements in educational distribution on future mortality levels is unknown. We therefore estimated the impact of projected increases in higher education on mortality in European populations. We used mortality and population data according to educational level from 21 European populations and developed counterfactual scenarios. The first scenario represented the improvement in the future distribution of educational attainment as expected on the basis of an assumption of cohort replacement. We estimated the effect of this counterfactual scenario on mortality with a 10-15-year time horizon among men and women aged 30-79 years using a specially developed tool based on population attributable fractions (PAF). We compared this with a second, upward levelling scenario in which everyone has obtained tertiary education. The reduction of mortality in the cohort replacement scenario ranged from 1.9 to 10.1% for men and from 1.7 to 9.0% for women. The reduction of mortality in the upward levelling scenario ranged from 22.0 to 57.0% for men and from 9.6 to 50.0% for women. The cohort replacement scenario was estimated to achieve only part (4-25% (men) and 10-31% (women)) of the potential mortality decrease seen in the upward levelling scenario. We concluded that the effect of on-going improvements in educational attainment on average mortality in the population differs across Europe, and can be substantial. Further investments in education may have important positive side-effects on population health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Combined impact of lifestyle-related factors on total and cause-specific mortality among Chinese women: prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah J Nechuta

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Although cigarette smoking, excessive alcohol drinking, obesity, and several other well-studied unhealthy lifestyle-related factors each have been linked to the risk of multiple chronic diseases and premature death, little is known about the combined impact on mortality outcomes, in particular among Chinese and other non-Western populations. The objective of this study was to quantify the overall impact of lifestyle-related factors beyond that of active cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Chinese women.We used data from the Shanghai Women's Health Study, an ongoing population-based prospective cohort study in China. Participants included 71,243 women aged 40 to 70 years enrolled during 1996-2000 who never smoked or drank alcohol regularly. A healthy lifestyle score was created on the basis of five lifestyle-related factors shown to be independently associated with mortality outcomes (normal weight, lower waist-hip ratio, daily exercise, never exposed to spouse's smoking, higher daily fruit and vegetable intake. The score ranged from zero (least healthy to five (most healthy points. During an average follow-up of 9 years, 2,860 deaths occurred, including 775 from cardiovascular disease (CVD and 1,351 from cancer. Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality decreased progressively with an increasing number of healthy lifestyle factors. Compared to women with a score of zero, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals for women with four to five factors were 0.57 (0.44-0.74 for total mortality, 0.29 (0.16-0.54 for CVD mortality, and 0.76 (0.54-1.06 for cancer mortality. The inverse association between the healthy lifestyle score and mortality was seen consistently regardless of chronic disease status at baseline. The population attributable risks for not having 4-5 healthy lifestyle factors were 33% for total deaths, 59% for CVD deaths, and 19% for cancer deaths.In this first study, to our knowledge, to

  13. Relationship between anthropogenic impacts and bleaching-associated tissue mortality of corals in Curaçao (Netherlands Antilles)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nagelkerken, I.

    2007-01-01

    Chronic anthropogenic impacts can have a negative effect on coral health and on coral energy budgets needed for regeneration of lesions. I therefore hypothesise that during massive bleaching events, the degree of corals showing bleaching-related tissue mortality is higher in areas subject to chronic

  14. The combined impact of adherence to five lifestyle factors on all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kristina E N; Johnsen, Nina F; Olsen, Anja

    2015-01-01

    guidelines into account. The objective of the present prospective cohort study was to investigate the combined impact of adherence to five lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity, waist circumference and diet) on all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality based on international...

  15. Long-term Impact of Bile Duct Injury on Morbidity, Mortality, Quality of Life, and Work Related Limitations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Klaske A. C.; de Reuver, Philip R.; van Dieren, Susan; van Delden, Otto M.; Rauws, Erik A.; Busch, Olivier R.; van Gulik, Thomas M.; Gouma, Dirk J.

    2017-01-01

    Assessment of long-term comprehensive outcome of multimodality treatment of bile duct injury (BDI) in terms of morbidity, mortality, quality of life (QoL), survival, and work related limitations. The impact of BDI on work ability is scarcely investigated. BDI patients referred to a tertiary center

  16. The impact of dyslipidaemia on cardiovascular mortality in individuals without a prior history of diabetes in the DECODE Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Qiao, Q.; Tuomilehto, J.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of dyslipidaemia on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in relation to fasting (FPG) and 2-h (2hPG) plasma glucose levels in individuals without a prior history of diabetes. METHODS: Data from 14 European population-based prospective studies of 9132 men and 8631...

  17. Impacts of beetle-induced forest mortality on carbon, water and nutrient cycling in the Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elise Pendall; Brent Ewers; Urszula Norton; Paul Brooks; W. J. Massman; Holly Barnard; David Reed; Tim Aston; John Frank

    2010-01-01

    Conifer forests across western North America are undergoing a widespread mortality event mediated by an epidemic outbreak of bark beetles of the genus Dendroctonus and their associated bluestain fungi (Ophiostoma spp.). As of late 2009, beetles have impacted over 600,000 hectares in northern Colorado and southern Wyoming (US Forest Service aerial survey estimates),...

  18. The joint impact of family history of myocardial infarction and other risk factors on 12-year coronary heart disease mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, J M; Feskens, E.J.; Verschuren, W M Monique; Seidell, J C; Kromhout, D.

    1999-01-01

    We investigated the impact of family history of myocardial infarction on 12-year coronary heart disease mortality. Men and women with a family history had an increased risk for coronary heart disease death, irrespective of other risk factors (RR = 1.58; 95% CI = 1.17-2.13 and RR = 2.12; 95% CI =

  19. Evaluating the value and impact of the Victorian Audit of Surgical Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retegan, Claudia; Russell, Colin; Harris, Darren; Andrianopoulos, Nick; Beiles, C Barry

    2013-10-01

    Since the Victorian Audit of Surgical Mortality (VASM) commenced in 2007, 95% of Victorian Fellows have agreed to participate and have provided data on the deaths of patients receiving surgical care. All public, and the majority of private, hospitals involved in the delivery of surgical services in Victoria have been submitting data on deaths associated with surgery. De-identified reports on this data are distributed in regular annual reports and case note review booklets. Although informal feedback on the perceived value of the audit was encouraging, a formal review of all aspects of the audit was felt necessary. An independent formal review of VASM governance, documentation, datasets and data analysis was performed, in addition to a survey of 257 individuals (surgeons and other stakeholders) on the perceived impact of VASM. The review confirmed increasing participation and acceptance by surgeons since the inception of the project. Governance mechanisms were found to be effective and acknowledged by stakeholders and collaborators. Robust participation rates have been achieved, and stakeholders were generally satisfied with the quality of feedback. Suggestions for improvement were provided by some surgeons and hospitals. External review of VASM processes and procedures confirmed that the audit was operating effectively, with robust quality control and achieving the trust of stakeholders. The educational value of the audit to the surgical community was acknowledged and areas for future improvement have been identified. © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  20. Impacts of cold weather on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Texas, 1990-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Li, Xiao; Zhao, Jing; Zhang, Kai

    2017-06-01

    Cold weather was estimated to account for more than half of weather-related deaths in the U.S. during 2006-2010. Studies have shown that cold-related excessive mortality is especially relevant with decreasing latitude or in regions with mild winter. However, only limited studies have been conducted in the southern U.S. The purpose of our study is to examine impacts of cold weather on mortality in 12 major Texas Metropolitan Areas (MSAs) for the 22-year period, 1990-2011. Our study used a two-stage approach to examine the cold-mortality association. We first applied distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to 12 major MSAs to estimate cold effects for each area. A random effects meta-analysis was then used to estimate pooled effects. Age-stratified and cause-specific mortalities were modeled separately for each MSA. Most of the MSAs were associated with an increased risk in mortality ranging from 0.1% to 5.0% with a 1 °C decrease in temperature below the cold thresholds. Higher increased mortality risks were generally observed in MSAs with higher average daily mean temperatures and lower latitudes. Pooled effect estimate was 1.58% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) [0.81, 2.37]) increase in all-cause mortality risk with a 1 °C decrease in temperature. Cold wave effects in Texas were also examined, and several MSAs along the Texas Gulf Coast showed statistically significant cold wave-mortality associations. Effects of cold on all-cause mortality were highest among people over 75 years old (1.86%, 95% CI [1.09, 2.63]). Pooled estimates for cause-specific mortality were strongest in myocardial infarction (4.30%, 95% CI [1.18, 7.51]), followed by respiratory diseases (3.17%, 95% CI [0.26, 6.17]) and ischemic heart diseases (2.54%, 95% CI [1.08, 4.02]). In conclusion, cold weather generally increases mortality risk significantly in Texas, and the cold effects vary with MSAs, age groups, and cause-specific deaths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Can volunteer community health workers decrease child morbidity and mortality in southwestern Uganda? An impact evaluation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer L Brenner

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The potential for community health workers to improve child health in sub-Saharan Africa is not well understood. Healthy Child Uganda implemented a volunteer community health worker child health promotion model in rural Uganda. An impact evaluation was conducted to assess volunteer community health workers' effect on child morbidity, mortality and to calculate volunteer retention. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Two volunteer community health workers were selected, trained and promoted child health in each of 116 villages (population ∼61,000 during 2006-2009. Evaluation included a household survey of mothers at baseline and post-intervention in intervention/control areas, retrospective reviews of community health worker birth/child death reports and post-intervention focus group discussions. Retention was calculated from administrative records. Main outcomes were prevalence of recent child illness/underweight status, community health worker reports of child deaths, focus group perception of effect, and community health worker retention. After 18-36 months, 86% of trained volunteers remained active. Post-intervention surveys in intervention households revealed absolute reductions of 10.2% [95%CI (-17.7%, -2.6%] in diarrhea prevalence and 5.8% [95%CI (-11.5%, -0.003%] in fever/malaria; comparative decreases in control households were not statistically significant. Underweight prevalence was reduced by 5.1% [95%CI (-10.7%, 0.4%] in intervention households. Community health worker monthly reports revealed a relative decline of 53% in child deaths (<5 years old, during the first 18 months of intervention. Focus groups credited community health workers with decreasing child deaths, improved care-seeking practices, and new income-generating opportunities. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A low-cost child health promotion model using volunteer community health workers demonstrated decreased child morbidity, dramatic mortality trend declines and

  2. Impact of injecting drug use on mortality in Danish HIV-infected patients: a nation-wide population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Mette V; Omland, Lars H; Gerstoft, Jan

    2010-01-01

    To estimate the impact of injecting drug use (IDU) on mortality in HIV-infected patients in the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era.......To estimate the impact of injecting drug use (IDU) on mortality in HIV-infected patients in the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era....

  3. The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ippoliti, Daniela; Michelozzi, Paola; Marino, Claudia; de'Donato, Francesca; Menne, Bettina; Katsouyanni, Klea; Kirchmayer, Ursula; Analitis, Antonis; Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Paldy, Anna; Atkinson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Bisanti, Luigi; Schneider, Alexandra; Lefranc, Agnès; Iñiguez, Carmen; Perucci, Carlo A

    2010-07-16

    The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

  4. The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bisanti Luigi

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Methods Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. Results The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality than in North Continental (+ 12.4% cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Conclusions Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

  5. Downstream impacts of a Central Amazonian hydroelectric dam on tree growth and mortality in floodplain forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resende, A. F. D.; Silva, T. S. F.; Silva, J. D. S.; Piedade, M. T. F.; Streher, A. S.; Ferreira-Ferreira, J.; Schongart, J.

    2017-12-01

    The flood pulse of large Amazonian Rivers is characterized by predictable high- and low-water periods during the annual cycle, and is the main driving force in the floodplains regulating decomposition, nutrient cycles, productivity, life cycles and growth rhythms of floodplains' biota. Over at least 20 millions of years, tree species in these ecosystems developed complex adaptative mechanisms to tolerate flooding, such as the tree species Macrolobium acaciifolium (Fabaceae) and Eschweilera tenuifolia (Lecythidaceae) occupying the lower topographic positions in the floodplain forests along the oligothrophic black-water rivers. Tree growth occurs mainly during terrestrial phase, while during the aquatic phase the anoxic conditions result into a cambial dormancy and formation of annual tree rings. The hydroelectric dam Balbina which was installed in the Uatumã River (central Amazonia) during the 1980s altered significantly the flood pulse regime resulting into higher minimum and lower maximum annual water levels. The suppression of the terrestrial phase caused large-scale mortality of flood-adapted trees growing on the lower topographic positions, as evidenced by radiocarbon dating and cross-dating techniques (dendrochronology). In this study we estimated the extension of dead forests using high resolution ALOS/PALSAR radar images, for their detection along a fluvial distance of more than 280 km downstream of the power plant. Further we analyzed tree growth of 60 living individuals of E. tenuifolia by tree-ring analyses comparing the post- and pre-dam periods. We evaluated the impacts of the altered hydrological regime on tree growth considering ontogenetic effects and the fluvial distance of the trees to the dam. Since the Balbina power plant started operating the associated igapó forests lost about 11% of its cover. We found a significant reduction of tree growth of E. tenuifolia during the post-dam period as a consequence of the increasing aquatic phase duration

  6. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quali...

  7. Prevalence of Anemia and Its Impact on Mortality and Hospitalization Rate in Predialysis Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voormolen, N.; Grootendorst, D. C.; Urlings, T. A. J.; Boeschoten, E. W.; Sijpkens, Y. W.; Huisman, R. M.; Krediet, R. T.; Dekker, F. W.

    2010-01-01

    Background/Aim: Anemia is associated with increased mortality and morbidity in both early and very late stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). The aim of this study was to assess whether anemia is a risk factor for mortality or hospitalization in CKD stage 4-5 predialysis patients not yet on

  8. Impact of body composition changes on risk of all-cause mortality in older adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graf, Christophe E; Herrmann, François R; Spoerri, Adrian

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: This study evaluates the relationship between body mass index (BMI), fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) changes and mortality in persons ≥65 years. METHODS: Adults ≥65 years with at least two body composition measurements (BCM) between 1990 and 2011 were included. We......: FFMI loss is related to increased mortality in older persons....

  9. Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr, mortality will impact hydrologic processes in southern Appalachian forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelcy R. Ford; James M. Vose

    2007-01-01

    Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) is one of the principal riparian and cove canopy species in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Throughout its range, eastern hemlock is facing potential widespread mortality from the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA). If HWA-induced eastern hemlock mortality alters hydrologic function, land managers...

  10. Effective interventions for unintentional injuries: a systematic review and mortality impact assessment among the poorest billion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecino-Ortiz, Andres I; Jafri, Aisha; Hyder, Adnan A

    2018-05-01

    saved per year) and the use of crèches to supervise younger children (younger than 5 years; >10 000 lives saved per year). We did not find sufficient evidence on interventions for other causes of unintentional injuries (poisoning, burns, and falls) to run similar simulations. Based on the little available evidence, key interventions have been identified to prevent lives lost from unintentional injuries among the poorest billion. This Article provides guidance to national authorities on evidence-based priority interventions that can reduce the burden of injuries among the most vulnerable members of the population. We also identify an important gap in knowledge on the effectiveness and the mortality impacts of injury interventions. Partly supported by the Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health (Chronic Consequences of Trauma, Injuries, Disability Across the Lifespan: Uganda; #D43TW009284). Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Effective interventions for unintentional injuries: a systematic review and mortality impact assessment among the poorest billion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andres I Vecino-Ortiz, PhD

    2018-05-01

    lessons for children younger than 14 years (>25 000 lives saved per year and the use of crèches to supervise younger children (younger than 5 years; >10 000 lives saved per year. We did not find sufficient evidence on interventions for other causes of unintentional injuries (poisoning, burns, and falls to run similar simulations. Interpretation: Based on the little available evidence, key interventions have been identified to prevent lives lost from unintentional injuries among the poorest billion. This Article provides guidance to national authorities on evidence-based priority interventions that can reduce the burden of injuries among the most vulnerable members of the population. We also identify an important gap in knowledge on the effectiveness and the mortality impacts of injury interventions. Funding: Partly supported by the Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health (Chronic Consequences of Trauma, Injuries, Disability Across the Lifespan: Uganda; #D43TW009284.

  12. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Optimal breastfeeding durations for HIV-exposed infants: the impact of maternal ART use, infant mortality and replacement feeding risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallampati, Divya; MacLean, Rachel L; Shapiro, Roger; Dabis, Francois; Engelsmann, Barbara; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Leroy, Valeriane; Lockman, Shahin; Walensky, Rochelle; Rollins, Nigel; Ciaranello, Andrea

    2018-04-01

    In 2010, the WHO recommended women living with HIV breastfeed for 12 months while taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) to balance breastfeeding benefits against HIV transmission risks. To inform the 2016 WHO guidelines, we updated prior research on the impact of breastfeeding duration on HIV-free infant survival (HFS) by incorporating maternal ART duration, infant/child mortality and mother-to-child transmission data. Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-Infant model, we simulated the impact of breastfeeding duration on 24-month HFS among HIV-exposed, uninfected infants. We defined "optimal" breastfeeding durations as those maximizing 24-month HFS. We varied maternal ART duration, mortality rates among breastfed infants/children, and relative risk of mortality associated with replacement feeding ("RRRF"), modelled as a multiplier on all-cause mortality for replacement-fed infants/children (range: 1 [no additional risk] to 6). The base-case simulated RRRF = 3, median infant mortality, and 24-month maternal ART duration. In the base-case, HFS ranged from 83.1% (no breastfeeding) to 90.2% (12-months breastfeeding). Optimal breastfeeding durations increased with higher RRRF values and longer maternal ART durations, but did not change substantially with variation in infant mortality rates. Optimal breastfeeding durations often exceeded the previous WHO recommendation of 12 months. In settings with high RRRF and long maternal ART durations, HFS is maximized when mothers breastfeed longer than the previously-recommended 12 months. In settings with low RRRF or short maternal ART durations, shorter breastfeeding durations optimize HFS. If mothers are supported to use ART for longer periods of time, it is possible to reduce transmission risks and gain the benefits of longer breastfeeding durations. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.

  14. The Impact of Forced Migration on Mortality: A Cohort Study of 242,075 Finns from 1939-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haukka, Jari; Suvisaari, Jaana; Sarvimäki, Matti; Martikainen, Pekka

    2017-07-01

    The stresses and life changes associated with migration may have harmful long-term health effects, especially for mental health. These effects are exceedingly difficult to establish, because migrants are typically a highly selected group. We examined the impact of migration on health using "naturally occurring" historical events. In this article, we use the forced migration of 11% of the Finnish population after WWII as such a natural experiment. We observed the date and cause of death starting from 1 January 1971 and ending in 31 December 2010 for the cohort of 242,075 people. Data were obtained by linking individual-level data from the 1950 and 1970 population censuses and the register of death certificates from 1971 to 2010 (10% random sample). All-cause and cause-specific mortalities were modeled using Poisson regression. Models with full adjustment for background variables showed that both all-cause mortality (RR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01, 1.05), and ischemic heart disease mortality (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.08, 1.15) were higher in the displaced population than in the nondisplaced population. Suicide mortality was lower (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.64, 0.92) in displaced than in the general population. In our long-term follow-up study, forced migration was associated with increased risk of death due to ischemic heart diseases. In contrast, lower suicide mortality was observed in association with forced migration 25 years or more.

  15. Impact of Health Research Systems on Under-5 Mortality Rate: A Trend Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahareh Yazdizadeh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Between 1990 and 2015, under-5 mortality rate (U5MR declined by 53%, from an estimated rate of 91 deaths per 1000 live births to 43, globally. The aim of this study was to determine the share of health research systems in this decrease alongside other influential factors. Methods We used random effect regression models including the ‘random intercept’ and ‘random intercept and random slope’ models to analyze the panel data from 1990 to 2010. We selected the countries with U5MRs falling between the first and third quartiles in 1990. We used both the total articles (TA and the number of child-specific articles (CSA as a proxy of the health research system. In order to account for the impact of other factors, measles vaccination coverage (MVC (as a proxy of health system performance, gross domestic product (GDP, human development index (HDI, and corruption perception index (CPI (as proxies of development, were embedded in the model. Results Among all the models, ‘the random intercept and random slope models’ had lower residuals. The same variables of CSA, HDI, and time were significant and the coefficient of CSA was estimated at -0.17; meaning, with the addition of every 100 CSA, the rate of U5MR decreased by 17 per 1000 live births. Conclusion Although the number of CSA has contributed to the reduction of U5MR, the amount of its contribution is negligible compared to the countries’ development. We recommend entering different types of researches into the model separately in future research andincluding the variable of ‘exchange between knowledge generator and user.’

  16. Interventions to reduce neonatal mortality: a mathematical model to evaluate impact of interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Jennifer B; McClure, Elizabeth M; Kamath-Rayne, Beena D; Hepler, Bonnie M; Rouse, Doris J; Jobe, Alan H; Goldenberg, Robert L

    2017-08-01

    To determine which interventions would have the greatest impact on reducing neonatal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2012. We used MANDATE, a mathematical model, to evaluate scenarios for the impact of available interventions on neonatal deaths from primary causes, including: (i) for birth asphyxia - obstetric care preventing intrapartum asphyxia, newborn resuscitation and treatment of asphyxiated infants; (ii) for preterm birth - corticosteroids, oxygen, continuous positive air pressure and surfactant; and, (iii) for serious newborn infection - clean delivery, chlorhexidine cord care and antibiotics. Reductions in infection-related mortality have occurred. Between 80 and 90% of deaths currently occurring from infections and asphyxia can be averted from available interventions, as can 58% of mortality from preterm birth. More than 200 000 neonatal deaths can each be averted from asphyxia, preterm birth and infections. Using available interventions, more than 80% of the neonatal deaths occurring today could be prevented in sub-Saharan Africa. Reducing neonatal deaths from asphyxia require improvements in infrastructure and obstetric care to manage maternal conditions such as obstructed labour and preeclampsia. Reducing deaths from preterm birth would also necessitate improved infrastructure and training for preterm infant care. Reducing infection-related mortality requires less infrastructure and lower-level providers. ©2017 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Does shared family background influence the impact of educational differences on early mortality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Grethe; Mortensen, Laust H; Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo

    2012-01-01

    The mechanisms behind social differences in mortality rates have been debated. The authors examined the extent to which shared family background and health in early life could explain the association between educational status and all-cause mortality rates using a sibling design. The study......-cause mortality that was strongest for males, increased with younger birth cohorts, and tended to be strongest in the analyses of death before 45 years of age. The associations were attenuated slightly in the intersibling analyses and after adjustment for serious health conditions in early life. Hence, health...

  18. IMPACT OF THE DURATION OF BACTERIAL EXPOSURE ON ZEBRA MUSSEL MORTALITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molloy, Daniel P.

    2002-01-01

    These tests indicated that: (1) duration of exposure to bacterial strain CL0145A of Pseudomonas fluorescens is a key variable in obtaining zebra mussel mortality; (2) that given a choice of exposure periods up to 96 hr, the longer the exposure period, the higher the mean mortality that will be achieved; (3) that the first few hours that the mussels are exposed to the bacteria are the most important in achieving kill; (4) that the mortality achieved by exposure periods ≥72 hr may be somewhat amplified by the degraded water quality conditions which can develop in recirculating water systems over such extended time periods

  19. IMPACT OF THE DURATION OF BACTERIAL EXPOSURE ON ZEBRA MUSSEL MORTALITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniel P. Molloy

    2002-01-21

    These tests indicated that: (1) duration of exposure to bacterial strain CL0145A of Pseudomonas fluorescens is a key variable in obtaining zebra mussel mortality; (2) that given a choice of exposure periods up to 96 hr, the longer the exposure period, the higher the mean mortality that will be achieved; (3) that the first few hours that the mussels are exposed to the bacteria are the most important in achieving kill; (4) that the mortality achieved by exposure periods {>=}72 hr may be somewhat amplified by the degraded water quality conditions which can develop in recirculating water systems over such extended time periods.

  20. Transmission of drug resistant HIV and its potential impact on mortality and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cambiano, Valentina; Bertagnolio, Silvia; Jordan, Michael R

    2013-01-01

    is the most cost-effective. Mathematical models can contribute to answer these questions. In order to estimate the potential long-term impact of TDR on mortality in people on ART we used the Synthesis transmission model. TDR is predicted to have potentially significant impact on future HIV mortality...... periods of unrecognized viral failure, during which drug-resistant virus can be transmitted and this could compromise the long-term effectiveness of currently available first-line regimens. In response to this concern, the World Health Organization recommends population-based surveys to detect whether...... the prevalence of resistance in ART-naive people is reaching alerting levels. Whereas adherence counseling has to be an integral component of any treatment program, it is still unclear which threshold of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) should trigger additional targeted public health actions and which action...

  1. Does educational status impact adult mortality in Denmark? A twin approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Mia; Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Christensen, Kaare

    2010-01-01

    -1935, and no effect modification by zygosity was observed. Hence, the results are most compatible with an effect of early family environment in explaining the educational inequality in mortality. However, large educational differences were still reflected in mortality risk differences within twin pairs, thus......To disentangle an independent effect of educational status on mortality risk from direct and indirect selection mechanisms, the authors used a discordant twin pair design, which allowed them to isolate the effect of education by means of adjustment for genetic and environmental confounding per...... 1980-2008. Both standard cohort and intrapair analyses were conducted separately for zygosity, gender, and birth cohort. Educational differences in mortality were demonstrated in the standard cohort analyses but attenuated in the intrapair analyses in all subgroups but men born during 1921...

  2. impact of hiv/aids on mortality among the inpatients at motebang ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2004-08-02

    Aug 2, 2004 ... the past year. HIV/AIDS is spreading ... Results. The mortality rate and number of deaths increased over the 15-year period. ..... (Paper presented to WHO/UNAIDS reference group on HIV estimates, modelling and projections).

  3. Impact of hyperglycemia on ischemic stroke mortality in diabetic and non-diabetic patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kes, V.B.; Solter, V.V.; Supanc, V.; Demarin, V.

    2007-01-01

    Previous studies suggest that infarct expansion may be responsible for increased mortality after stroke onset in patients with prolonged stress hyperglycemia on stroke mortality in patients with and without diabetes. For 630 stroke patients admitted to the neurological intensive care department within 24 hours of stroke onset, we correlated mean blood glucose levels (MBGL) at admission and 72 hours after admission in diabetic and non-diabetic patients with final outcome. Blood glucose levels higher then 6.1 mmol/L (121mg/dL) was treated as hyperglycemia. Of 630 patients (mean age 71+-6), 410 were non-diabetic (mortality, 25%) and 220 patients were diabetic (mortality, 20%). All patients who died within 28 days of hospitalization had prolonged hyperglycemia at admission and after 72 hours, despite insulin therapy). The unadjusted relative risk of in-hospital mortality within 28 days of all stroke patients was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.14-1.9) for non-diabetic patients and 0.39 (95% CI, 0.27-1.56) for diabetic patients. The unadjusted relative risk of in-hospital mortality within 28 days in ischemic stroke in patients with MBGL> 6.1-8.0 mmol/L (121-144 mg/dL) at admission after 72 hours was 1.83 (95% CI, 0.41-5.5) for non-diabetic patients and 1.13 (95% CI, 0.78-4.5) for diabetic patients and 1.13 (95%, 0.78-4.5) for diabetic patients. Non-diabetic patients with hyperglycemia had a 1.7 times higher relative risk of in-hospital 28-day mortality than patients with diabetes. Prolonged stress hyperglycemia in ischemic stroke patients increases the risk of in-hospital 28-day mortality, especially in non-diabetic patients. (author)

  4. The impact of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moss, S M; Nyström, L; Jonsson, H.

    2012-01-01

    Analysing trends in population breast cancer mortality statistics appears a simple method of estimating the effectiveness of mammographic screening programmes. We reviewed such studies of population-based screening in Europe to assess their value.......Analysing trends in population breast cancer mortality statistics appears a simple method of estimating the effectiveness of mammographic screening programmes. We reviewed such studies of population-based screening in Europe to assess their value....

  5. Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986-2009: adaptation to climate change?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 113, č. 2 (2012), s. 437-453 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA ČR GC205/07/J044; GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1985 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Mortality * hot spells * climate change * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.634, year: 2012 http://www.springerlink.com/content/d437532820hx7451/fulltext.pdf

  6. The impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in the Greater Metropolitan Sydney Region: a case crossover analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson, Leigh Ann; Gerard Morgan, Geoffrey; Hanigan, Ivan Charles; Johnston, Fay H; Abu-Rayya, Hisham; Broome, Richard; Gaskin, Clive; Jalaludin, Bin

    2013-01-01

    Background This study examined the association between unusually high temperature and daily mortality (1997?2007) and hospital admissions (1997?2010) in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) to assist in the development of targeted health programs designed to minimise the public health impact of extreme heat. Methods Sydney GMR was categorized into five climate zones. Heat-events were defined as severe or extreme. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design with a conditional logisti...

  7. Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohk, Christina; Rau, Roland

    To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia-three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political reforms. The results of our retrospective mortality forecasts from 1991 to 2009 suggest that our model can capture major changes in long-term mortality trends, and that the forecast errors it generates are usually smaller than those of other well-accepted models, like the Lee-Carter model and its coherent variant. This is because our approach is capable of modeling (1) dynamic shifts in survival improvements from younger to older ages over time, as well as (2) substantial changes in long-term trends by optionally complementing the extrapolated mortality trends in a country of interest with those of selected reference countries. However, the forecasting performance of our model is limited (like that of every model): e.g., if mortality becomes extremely volatile-as was the case in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union-generating a precise forecast will depend more on luck than on methodology and expert judgment. In general, we conclude that, on their own, recent economic changes appear to have minor effects on life expectancy in industrialized countries, but that the effects of these changes are greater if they occur in conjunction with other major social and political changes.

  8. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Anenberg

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5, black carbon (BC is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m−3 (1.8 % and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000–194 000 annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %, followed by South Asia (India; 31 %, however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times

  9. Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

    2011-07-01

    As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %), followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting

  10. Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Morabito

    Full Text Available Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks.Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65.A long time-series (2001-2013 of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST. LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1 the Linear Regression Model (LRM; 2 the Generalized Additive Model (GAM. Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m from the 2001 census (Eurostat source, and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI.The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities.This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related

  11. Urban-hazard risk analysis: mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

    2015-01-01

    Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥ 65). A long time-series (2001-2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using "Crichton's Risk Triangle" hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related

  12. Towards improved quantification of post-fire conifer mortality and recovery: Impacts of fire radiative flux on seedling and mature tree mortality, physiology, and growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, A. M.; Kolden, C.; Smith, A. M.

    2016-12-01

    Fire activity, in terms of intensity, frequency, and total area burned, is expected to increase with changing climate. A challenge for landscape level assessment of fire effects, termed burn severity, is that current assessments provide very little information regarding vegetation physiological performance and recovery, limiting our understanding of fire effects on ecosystem services such as carbon storage/cycling. To address these limitations, we evaluated an alternative dose-response methodology for quantifying fire effects that attempts to bridge fire combustion dynamics and ecophysiology. Specifically, we conducted a highly controlled, laboratory assessment of seedling response to increasing doses of fire radiative energy applied through surface fires, for two western U.S. conifer species. Seedling physiology and spectral reflectance were acquired pre- and up to 1 year post-fire. Post-fire mortality, physiological performance, and spectral reflectance were strongly related with fire radiative energy density (FRED: J m-2) dose. To examine how these relationships change with tree size and age, we conducted small prescribed fires at the tree scale (35 m2) in a mature conifer stand. Radial growth and resin duct defenses were assessed on the mature conifer trees following the prescribed fires. Differences in dose-response relationships between seedlings and mature trees indicate the importance of fire behavior (e.g., flaming-dominated versus smoldering-dominated combustion) in characterizing these relationships. Ultimately, these results suggest that post-fire impacts on growth of surviving seedlings and mature trees require modes of heat transfer to impact tree canopies.

  13. The Impact of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Smoking on Mortality and Kidney Transplantation in End-Stage Kidney Disease.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kent, Brian D

    2012-09-07

    Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and tobacco use are leading causes of morbidity and mortality. The prevalence and clinical impact of COPD on mortality and kidney transplantation among patients who begin dialysis therapy is unclear. Methods: We explored the clinical impact of COPD and continued tobacco use on overall mortality and kidney transplantation in a national cohort study of US dialysis patients. National data on all dialysis patients (n = 769,984), incident between May 1995 and December 2004 and followed until October 31, 2006, were analyzed from the United States Renal Data System. Prevalence and period trends were determined while multivariable Cox regression evaluated relative hazard ratios (RR) for death and kidney transplantation. Results: The prevalence of COPD was 7.5% overall and increased from 6.7 to 8.1% from 1995-2004. COPD correlated significantly with older age, cardiovascular conditions, cancer, malnutrition, poor functional status, and tobacco use. Adjusted mortality risks were significantly higher for patients with COPD (RR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.18-1.21), especially among current smokers (RR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.25-1.32), and varied inversely with advancing age. In contrast, the adjusted risks of kidney transplantation were significantly lower for patients with COPD (RR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.41-0.54, for smokers and RR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.50-0.58, for non-smokers) than without COPD [RR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.70-0.75, for smokers and RR = 1.00 for non-smokers (referent category)]. Conclusions: Patients with COPD who begin dialysis therapy in the US experience higher mortality and lower rates of kidney transplantation, outcomes that are far worse among current smokers.

  14. Genital burns in the national burn repository: incidence, etiology, and impact on morbidity and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harpole, Bethany G; Wibbenmeyer, Lucy A; Erickson, Bradley A

    2014-02-01

    To better characterize national genital burns (GBs) characteristics using a large burn registry. We hypothesized that mortality and morbidity will be higher in patients with GBs. The National Burn Repository, a large North American registry of hospitalized burn patients, was queried for patients with GB. Burn characteristics and mechanism, demographics, mortality, and surgical interventions were retrieved. Outcomes of interest were mortality, hospital-acquired infection (HAI), and surgical intervention on the genitalia. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for outcomes were determined with binomial logistic regression controlling for age, total burn surface area, race, length of stay, gender, and inhalation injury presence. GBs were present in 1245 cases of 71,895 burns (1.7%). Patients with GB had significantly greater average total burn surface area, length of stay, and mortality. In patients with GB, surgery of the genitalia was infrequent (10.4%), with the aOR of receiving surgery higher among men (aOR 2.7, P burns (aOR 3.1, P <.002). Presence of a GB increased the odds of HAI (aOR 3.0, P <.0001) and urinary tract infections (aOR 3.4, P <.0001). GB was also an independent predictor of mortality (aOR 1.54) even after adjusting for the increased HAI risk. GBs are rare but associated with higher HAI rates and higher mortality after adjusting for well-established mortality risk factors. Although a cause and effect relationship cannot be established using these registry data, we believe this study suggests the need for special management considerations in GB cases to improve overall outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Impact of living environment on 2-year mortality in elderly maintenance hemodialysis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Hung Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies on risk factors of mortality in elderly patients with hemodialysis usually focus on comorbidities, nutrition, and inflammation. Discussion on the correlation between living environment and mortality of these patients is limited. METHODS: A total of 256 elderly hemodialysis patients participated in this 2-year prospective observational study. The subjects were divided into 2 subgroups based on whether they were living in Taipei Basin (n = 63 or not (n = 193. Demographic, hematological, nutritional, inflammatory, biochemical, and dialysis-related data were obtained for cross-sectional analysis. Causes of death and mortality rates were also analyzed for each subgroup. RESULTS: Patients in the basin group had a higher incidence of combined protein-energy wasting and inflammation than those in the around basin group. At the end of the 2-year follow-up, 68 patients had died. Univariate binary logistic regression analysis revealed that a very advanced age, basin group, serum albumin levels, serum creatinine levels, non-anuria, and the complications of stroke and CAD were associated with 2-year mortality. Meanwhile, log high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP levels were not associated with 2-year mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that basin group, serum albumin levels, and the complications of stroke and CAD were significant risk factors for 2-year mortality in these patients. CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate that factors such as living in the Taipei Basin with higher air pollutant levels in elderly hemodialysis patients is associated with protein-energy wasting and inflammation, as well as 2-year mortality. These findings suggest that among this population, living environment is as important as comorbidities and nutrition. Furthermore, air pollution should be getting more attention especially in the overcrowding Basin topography.

  16. Impact of living environment on 2-year mortality in elderly maintenance hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wen-Hung; Lin, Ja-Liang; Lin-Tan, Dan-Tzu; Chen, Kuan-Hsing; Hsu, Ching-Wei; Yen, Tzung-Hai

    2013-01-01

    Studies on risk factors of mortality in elderly patients with hemodialysis usually focus on comorbidities, nutrition, and inflammation. Discussion on the correlation between living environment and mortality of these patients is limited. A total of 256 elderly hemodialysis patients participated in this 2-year prospective observational study. The subjects were divided into 2 subgroups based on whether they were living in Taipei Basin (n = 63) or not (n = 193). Demographic, hematological, nutritional, inflammatory, biochemical, and dialysis-related data were obtained for cross-sectional analysis. Causes of death and mortality rates were also analyzed for each subgroup. Patients in the basin group had a higher incidence of combined protein-energy wasting and inflammation than those in the around basin group. At the end of the 2-year follow-up, 68 patients had died. Univariate binary logistic regression analysis revealed that a very advanced age, basin group, serum albumin levels, serum creatinine levels, non-anuria, and the complications of stroke and CAD were associated with 2-year mortality. Meanwhile, log high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels were not associated with 2-year mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that basin group, serum albumin levels, and the complications of stroke and CAD were significant risk factors for 2-year mortality in these patients. The results of this study indicate that factors such as living in the Taipei Basin with higher air pollutant levels in elderly hemodialysis patients is associated with protein-energy wasting and inflammation, as well as 2-year mortality. These findings suggest that among this population, living environment is as important as comorbidities and nutrition. Furthermore, air pollution should be getting more attention especially in the overcrowding Basin topography.

  17. Impact of adverse events of antiretroviral treatment on regimen change and mortality in Ugandan children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ntambwe Malangu

    2010-06-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of the adverse events of antiretroviral treatment, their impact on mortality and the change in regimens prescribed to children treated at Mildway Centre in Uganda. Method: A retrospective chart review was performed for children younger than 6 years, treated since the Mildway Centre was opened in 1999. In order to achieve a larger sample, the records of children treated from January 2000 to July 2005 were included in the study. A pre-tested data collection form was used to collate socio-demographic and clinical data of the patients. These included the documented adverse events, causes of death, stage of infection, duration of treatment, regimen prescribed, year of enrolment into the treatment program, as well as whether or not they were still alive. Descriptive statistics were used in the analysis of data. Results: Of the 179 children, the majority were males and had a median age of 4 years. The majority (58.8% of children had suffered from severe immune depression since they met the WHO clinical stage III and IV, 73.8% had a baseline CD4T of less than 15%. Four regimens were prescribed to the children. The most common was a regimen containing zidovudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine (34.6%, followed by a regimen containing stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine (27.9%. Eleven children (6.1% had their regimen changed, of which six (54.5% were due to adverse events. The prevalence of adverse events was 8%; of the 14 documented adverse events, the most common were severe anaemia (3, vomiting (3, and skin rashes (3. After 12 months on treatment, 8% of the patients had died. The most common causes of death were infectious diseases (28.6%, severe anaemia (21.4%, and severe dehydration (21.4%. Conclusion: The prevalence of adverse events was 8%; they were responsible for 54.5% of regimen changes and 21.4% of deaths in children treated at the study site. These findings suggest the need for incorporating

  18. The impact of socioeconomic status and multimorbidity on mortality: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund Jensen, Nikoline; Pedersen, Henrik Søndergaard; Vestergaard, Mogens; Mercer, Stewart W; Glümer, Charlotte; Prior, Anders

    2017-01-01

    Multimorbidity (MM) is more prevalent among people of lower socioeconomic status (SES), and both MM and SES are associated with higher mortality rates. However, little is known about the relationship between SES, MM, and mortality. This study investigates the association between educational level and mortality, and to what extent MM modifies this association. We followed 239,547 individuals invited to participate in the Danish National Health Survey 2010 (mean follow-up time: 3.8 years). MM was assessed by using information on drug prescriptions and diagnoses for 39 long-term conditions. Data on educational level were provided by Statistics Denmark. Date of death was obtained from the Civil Registration System. Information on lifestyle factors and quality of life was collected from the survey. The main outcomes were overall and premature mortality (death before the age of 75). Of a total of 12,480 deaths, 6,607 (9.5%) were of people with low educational level (LEL) and 1,272 (2.3%) were of people with high educational level (HEL). The mortality rate was higher among people with LEL compared with HEL in groups of people with 0-1 disease (hazard ratio: 2.26, 95% confidence interval: 2.00-2.55) and ≥4 diseases (hazard ratio: 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.24), respectively (adjusted model). The absolute number of deaths was six times higher among people with LEL than those with HEL in those with ≥4 diseases. The 1-year cumulative mortality proportions for overall death in those with ≥4 diseases was 5.59% for people with HEL versus 7.27% for people with LEL, and 1-year cumulative mortality proportions for premature death was 2.93% for people with HEL versus 4.04% for people with LEL. Adjusting for potential mediating factors such as lifestyle and quality of life eliminated the statistical association between educational level and mortality in people with MM. Our study suggests that LEL is associated with higher overall and premature mortality and that the

  19. Risk characterization of hospitalizations for mental illness and/or behavioral disorders with concurrent heat-related illness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael T Schmeltz

    Full Text Available Many studies have found significant associations between high ambient temperatures and increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality. Several studies have demonstrated that increases in heat-related hospitalizations are elevated among individuals with diagnosed mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders (MBD. However, there are a limited number of studies regarding risk factors associated with specific mental illnesses that contribute, at least in part, to heat-related illnesses (HRI in the United States.To identify and characterize individual and environmental risk factors associated with MBD hospitalizations with a concurrent HRI diagnosis.This study uses hospitalization data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2001-2010. Descriptive analyses of primary and secondary diagnoses of MBDs with an HRI were examined. Risk ratios (RR were calculated from multivariable models to identify risk factors for hospitalizations among patients with mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders and HRI.Nondependent alcohol/drug abuse, dementia, and schizophrenia were among the disorders that were associated with increased frequency of HRI hospitalizations among MBD patients. Increased risk of MBD hospitalizations with HRI was observed for Males (RR, 3.06, African Americans (RR, 1.16, Native Americans (RR, 1.70, uninsured (RR, 1.92, and those 40 years and older, compared to MBD hospitalizations alone.Previous studies outside the U.S. have found that dementia and schizophrenia are significant risk factors for HRI hospitalizations. Our results suggest that hospitalizations among substance abusers may also be an important risk factor associated with heat morbidity. Improved understanding of these relative risks could help inform future public health strategies.

  20. Continued improvement of cardiovascular mortality in Hungary - impact of increased cardio-metabolic prescriptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jozan Peter

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the last 35 years the poor ranking of Hungary on the list of life expectancy at birth among European countries, has not changed. In 1970 our lag behind the leading European countries was the smallest. The gap was growing between 1970 and 1993 but from 1994 onwards the life expectancy at birth in Hungary has increased continuously and somewhat faster than in other European countries. The aim of this study was to analyze the association between decreasing cardiovascular mortality rates, as a main cause of death and the increase in cardio-metabolic prescriptions and possible changes in lifestyle behavior. Methods Analyses were conducted on national data concerning cardiovascular mortality and the number of cardio-metabolic drug prescription per capita. The association between yearly rates of cardiovascular events and changes in antihypertensive, antilipidemic and antidiabetic prescription rates was analyzed. The changes in other cardiovascular risk factors, like lifestyle were also considered. Results We observed a remarkable decline of mortality due to stroke and acute myocardial infarction (AMI. The fall was significantly associated with all prescription rates. The proportion of each treatment type responsible for suppression of specific mortality rates is different. All treatment types comparably improved stroke mortality, while antilipidemic therapy improved AMI outcome. Conclusions These results emphasize the importance of a comprehensive strategy that maximizes the population coverage of effective treatments. Hungary appears to be at the beginning of the fourth stage of epidemiologic transition, i.e. it has entered the stage of delayed chronic noninfectious diseases.

  1. Does educational status impact adult mortality in Denmark? A twin approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Mia; Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo; Christensen, Kaare; Andersen, Per Kragh; Osler, Merete

    2010-07-15

    To disentangle an independent effect of educational status on mortality risk from direct and indirect selection mechanisms, the authors used a discordant twin pair design, which allowed them to isolate the effect of education by means of adjustment for genetic and environmental confounding per design. The study is based on data from the Danish Twin Registry and Statistics Denmark. Using Cox regression, they estimated hazard ratios for mortality according to the highest attained education among 5,260 monozygotic and 11,088 dizygotic same-sex twin pairs born during 1921-1950 and followed during 1980-2008. Both standard cohort and intrapair analyses were conducted separately for zygosity, gender, and birth cohort. Educational differences in mortality were demonstrated in the standard cohort analyses but attenuated in the intrapair analyses in all subgroups but men born during 1921-1935, and no effect modification by zygosity was observed. Hence, the results are most compatible with an effect of early family environment in explaining the educational inequality in mortality. However, large educational differences were still reflected in mortality risk differences within twin pairs, thus supporting some degree of independent effect of education. In addition, the effect of education may be more pronounced in older cohorts of Danish men.

  2. Impact of the Garrett Lee Smith youth suicide prevention program on suicide mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walrath, Christine; Garraza, Lucas Godoy; Reid, Hailey; Goldston, David B; McKeon, Richard

    2015-05-01

    We examined whether a reduction in youth suicide mortality occurred between 2007 and 2010 that could reasonably be attributed to Garrett Lee Smith (GLS) program efforts. We compared youth mortality rates across time between counties that implemented GLS-funded gatekeeper training sessions (the most frequently implemented suicide prevention strategy among grantees) and a set of matched counties in which no GLS-funded training occurred. A rich set of background characteristics, including preintervention mortality rates, was accounted for with a combination of propensity score-based techniques. We also analyzed closely related outcomes that we did not expect to be affected by GLS as control outcomes. Counties implementing GLS training had significantly lower suicide rates among the population aged 10 to 24 years the year after GLS training than similar counties that did not implement GLS training (1.33 fewer deaths per 100 000; P = .02). Simultaneously, we found no significant difference in terms of adult suicide mortality rates or nonsuicide youth mortality the year after the implementation. These results support the existence of an important reduction in youth suicide rates resulting from the implementation of GLS suicide prevention programming.

  3. The impact of virus infections on pneumonia mortality is complex in adults: a prospective multicentre observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsurada, Naoko; Suzuki, Motoi; Aoshima, Masahiro; Yaegashi, Makito; Ishifuji, Tomoko; Asoh, Norichika; Hamashige, Naohisa; Abe, Masahiko; Ariyoshi, Koya; Morimoto, Konosuke

    2017-12-06

    Various viruses are known to be associated with pneumonia. However, the impact of viral infections on adult pneumonia mortality remains unclear. This study aimed to clarify the effect of virus infection on pneumonia mortality among adults stratified by virus type and patient comorbidities. This multicentre prospective study enrolled pneumonia patients aged ≥15 years from September 2011 to August 2014. Sputum samples were tested by in-house multiplex polymerase chain reaction assays to identify 13 respiratory viruses. Viral infection status and its effect on in-hospital mortality were examined by age group and comorbidity status. A total of 2617 patients were enrolled in the study and 77.8% was aged ≥65 years. 574 (21.9%) did not have comorbidities, 790 (30.2%) had chronic respiratory disease, and 1253 (47.9%) had other comorbidities. Viruses were detected in 605 (23.1%) patients. Human rhinovirus (9.8%) was the most frequently identified virus, followed by influenza A (3.9%) and respiratory syncytial virus (3.9%). Respiratory syncytial virus was more frequently identified in patients with chronic respiratory disease (4.7%) than those with other comorbidities (4.2%) and without comorbidities (2.1%) (p = 0.037). The frequencies of other viruses were almost identical between the three groups. Virus detection overall was not associated with increased mortality (adjusted risk ratio (ARR) 0.76, 95% CI 0.53-1.09). However, influenza virus A and B were associated with three-fold higher mortality in patients with chronic respiratory disease but not with other comorbidities (ARR 3.38, 95% CI 1.54-7.42). Intriguingly, paramyxoviruses were associated with dramatically lower mortality in patients with other comorbidities (ARR 0.10, 95% CI 0.01-0.70) but not with chronic respiratory disease. These effects were not affected by age group. The impact of virus infections on pneumonia mortality varies by virus type and comorbidity status in adults.

  4. Impact of perioperative liver dysfunction on in-hospital mortality and long-term survival in infective endocarditis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diab, M; Sponholz, C; von Loeffelholz, C; Scheffel, P; Bauer, M; Kortgen, A; Lehmann, T; Färber, G; Pletz, M W; Doenst, T

    2017-12-01

    Infective endocarditis (IE) is often associated with multiorgan dysfunction and mortality. The impact of perioperative liver dysfunction (LD) on outcome remains unclear and little is known about factors leading to postoperative LD. We performed a retrospective, single-center analysis on 285 patients with left-sided IE without pre-existing chronic liver disease referred to our center between 2007 and 2013 for valve surgery. Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score was used to evaluate organ dysfunction. Chi-square, Cox regression, and multivariate analyses were used for evaluation. Preoperative LD (Bilirubin >20 μmol/L) was present in 68 of 285 patients. New, postoperative LD occurred in 54 patients. Hypoxic hepatitis presented the most common origin of LD, accompanied with high short-term mortality. In-hospital mortality was higher in patients with preoperative and postoperative LD compared to patients without LD (51.5, 24.1, and 10.4%, respectively, p endocarditis is an independent predictor of short- and long-term mortalities. After surviving the hospital stay, 5-year prognosis is not different and quality of life is not affected by LD. S. aureus and duration of cardiopulmonary bypass represent risk factors for postoperative LD.

  5. Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miron, Isidro Juan; Linares, Cristina; Montero, Juan Carlos; Criado-Alvarez, Juan Jose; Díaz, Julio

    2015-09-01

    The relationship between heat waves and mortality has been widely described, but there are few studies using long daily data on specific-cause mortality. This study is undertaken in central Spain and analysing natural causes, circulatory and respiratory causes of mortality from 1975 to 2008. Time-series analysis was performed using ARIMA models, including data on specific-cause mortality and maximum and mean daily temperature and mean daily air pressure. The length of heat waves and their chronological number were analysed. Data were stratified in three decadal stages: 1975-1985, 1986-1996 and 1997-2008. Heat-related mortality was triggered by a threshold temperature of 37 °C. For each degree that the daily maximum temperature exceeded 37 °C, the percentage increase in mortality due to circulatory causes was 19.3 % (17.3-21.3) in 1975-1985, 30.3 % (28.3-32.3) in 1986-1996 and 7.3 % (6.2-8.4) in 1997-2008. The increase in respiratory cause ranged from 12.4 % (7.8-17.0) in the first period, to 16.3 % (14.1-18.4) in the second and 13.7 % (11.5-15.9) in the last. Each day of heat-wave duration explained 5.3 % (2.6-8.0) increase in respiratory mortality in the first period and 2.3 % (1.6-3.0) in the last. Decadal scale differences exist for specific-causes mortality induced by extreme heat. The impact on heat-related mortality by natural and circulatory causes increases between the first and the second period and falls significantly in the last. For respiratory causes, the increase is no reduced in the last period. These results are of particular importance for the estimation of future impacts of climate change on health.

  6. Impact of malnutrition on 12-month mortality following acute hip fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jack J; Pulle, Ranjeev C; Crouch, Alisa M; Kuys, Suzanne S; Ferrier, Rebecca L; Whitehouse, Sarah L

    2016-03-01

    Studies investigating the relationship between malnutrition and post-discharge mortality following acute hip fracture yield conflicting results. This study aimed to determine whether malnutrition independently predicted 12-month post-fracture mortality after adjusting for clinically relevant covariates. An ethics approved, prospective, consecutive audit was undertaken for all surgically treated hip fracture inpatients admitted to a dedicated orthogeriatric unit (November 2010-October 2011). The 12-month mortality data were obtained by a dual search of the mortality registry and Queensland Health database. Malnutrition was evaluated using the Subjective Global Assessment. Demographic (age, gender, admission residence) and clinical covariates included fracture type, time to surgery, anaesthesia type, type of surgery, post-surgery time to mobilize and post-operative complications (delirium, pulmonary and deep vein thrombosis, cardiac complications, infections). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was retrospectively applied. All diagnoses were confirmed by the treating orthogeriatrician. A total of 322 of 346 patients were available for audit. Increased age (P = 0.004), admission from residential care (P malnutrition (P 48 h (P malnutrition (odds ratio (OR) 2.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-4.7, P = 0.007)), in addition to admission from residential care (OR 2.6 (95% CI 1.3-5.3, P = 0.005)) and pulmonary embolism (OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.5-78.7, P = 0.017)), independently predicted 12-month mortality. Findings substantiate malnutrition as an independent predictor of 12-month mortality in a representative sample of hip fracture inpatients. Effective strategies to identify and treat malnutrition in hip fracture should be prioritized. © 2016 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  7. Wound healing trajectories in burn patients and their impact on mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitzschke, Stephanie L; Aden, James K; Serio-Melvin, Maria L; Shingleton, Sarah K; Chung, Kevin K; Waters, J A; King, Booker T; Burns, Christopher J; Lundy, Jonathan B; Salinas, José; Wolf, Steven E; Cancio, Leopoldo C

    2014-01-01

    The rate of wound healing and its effect on mortality has not been well described. The objective of this article is to report wound healing trajectories in burn patients and analyze their effects on in-hospital mortality. The authors used software (WoundFlow) to depict burn wounds, surgical results, and healing progression at multiple time points throughout admission. Data for all patients admitted to the intensive care unit with ≥ 20% TBSA burned were collected retrospectively. The open wound size (OWS), which includes both unhealed burns and unhealed donor sites, was measured. We calculated the rate of wound closure (healing rate), which we defined as the change in OWS/time. We also determined the time delay (DAYS) from day of burn until day on which there was a reduction in OWS healing (H), and 13 did not (NH). H differed from NH on age (38 years [32-57] vs 63 [51-74]), body mass index (27 [21-28] vs 32 [19-52]), 24-hour fluid resuscitation (12 L [10-16] vs 18 [15-20]), pressors during first 48 hours (72% vs 100%), use of renal replacement therapy (32% vs 92%), and mortality (4% vs 100%). Repeated measures analysis of covariance showed a significant difference between survivors and nonsurvivors on OWS as a function of time (Phealing rate (+2%/day) after postburn day 20 had 100% survival whereas those with a negative healing rate (-2%/day) had 100% mortality. For H patients, median DAYS was 41 (28-54); median DAYS/TBSA was 1.3 (1.0-1.9). Survivors had a 0.62% drop in OWS/day, or 4.3%/week. In this cohort of patients with ≥ 20% TBSA, there was a difference in mortality after postburn day 20, between patients with a positive healing rate (+2%/day, 100% survival) and those with a negative healing rate (-2%/day, 100% mortality, P < .05).

  8. Impact of public health strategies on reducing AIDS mortality in southern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raboni, Sonia M; Ribeiro, Clea E; Almeida, Sergio M; Telles, João Paulo M; Azevedo, Marcos; Schaitza, Gustavo A

    2017-01-01

    In Brazil, all patients who fulfill the criteria for AIDS have had free access to antiretroviral therapy since 1996. We performed this cross-sectional study to evaluate the causes of death among 643 HIV-infected patients over three non-consecutive years (2000, 2006, and 2010), using their epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data. The causes of death were classified as AIDS-defining or non-AIDS-defining conditions. We observed a progressive increase in the prevalence of HIV infection over the study period, although there was also a decrease in the mortality rate for various groups, and especially among pediatric patients. An AIDS-defining condition was recorded as the cause of death for approximately 30% of the patients. There was also a high frequency (>70%) of infectious and parasitic diseases, including opportunistic infections, and the most common diagnoses were septicemia, pneumonia, tuberculosis, and pneumocystosis. Acute respiratory failure was the underlying cause of death in 30% of these cases. Despite advances in HIV therapy, the mortality rate remains high in Brazil. As few Brazilian studies have investigated HIV/AIDS-related mortality, it is important to evaluate and improve the mortality notification databases, in order to provide information regarding the effects of HIV and to guide the implementation of appropriate healthcare measures.

  9. Impact of HIV/AIDS mortality on South Africa's life expectancy and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study seeks to raise awareness and expand knowledge about the deleterious effect of HIV/AIDS mortality on South Africa's life expectancy, a country with a relatively high HIV/AIDS prevalence rate (19. percent). Using the multiple and associated single decrement life table techniques, the study estimates the total ...

  10. Impact of child mortality and fertility preferences on fertility status in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To determine the effects of child mortality and fertility preference on fertility status in rural Ethiopia. Design: Case-referent where the cases were women with number of children ever born alive was less than five and controls were women with number of children ever born alive greater or equal to five.

  11. Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocroft, Amanda; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Egger, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started...... studies, and patient management....

  12. Water for Life: The Impact of the Privatization of Water Services on Child Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiani, Sebastian; Gertler, Paul; Schargrodsky, Ernesto

    2005-01-01

    While most countries are committed to increasing access to safe water and thereby reducing child mortality, there is little consensus on how to actually improve water services. One important proposal under discussion is whether to privatize water provision. In the 1990s Argentina embarked on one of the largest privatization campaigns in the world,…

  13. Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Ou, Chun-Quan; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Zhou, Qin; Shen, Gi-Chuan; Chen, Ping-Yan; Guo, Yuming

    2013-04-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Lagged PM2.5 effects in mortality time series: Critical impact of covariate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two most common approaches to modeling the effects of air pollution on mortality are the Harvard and the Johns Hopkins (NMMAPS) approaches. These two approaches, which use different sets of covariates, result in dissimilar estimates of the effect of lagged fine particulate ma...

  15. Impact of Hyponatremia on Morbidity, Mortality, and Complications After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapa, Ben; Taylor, Blake E S; Appelboom, Geoffrey; Bruce, Eliza M; Claassen, Jan; Connolly, E Sander

    2016-01-01

    Hyponatremia is a common metabolic disturbance after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), and it may worsen outcomes. This review aims to characterize the effect of hyponatremia on morbidity and mortality after SAH. We sought to determine the prevalence of hyponatremia after SAH, including in subgroups, as well as its effect on mortality and certain outcome measures, including degree of disability and duration of hospitalization. A search of terms "hyponatremia" and "subarachnoid hemorrhage" was performed on PubMed, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and EMBASE. Studies were included if they reported prevalence of hyponatremia and if they discussed outcomes such as mortality, duration of stay, functional outcomes (e.g., Glasgow Outcomes Scale), or incidence of complications in patients with aneurysmal SAH. Two independent researchers assessed the titles and abstracts and reviewed articles for inclusion. Thirteen studies met inclusion criteria. The prevalence of at least mild hyponatremia was 859 of 2387 (36%) of patients. Hyponatremia was associated with vasospasm and duration of hospitalization, but it did not influence mortality. Hyponatremia is common after SAH, and there is evidence that it is associated with certain poorer outcomes. Larger, prospective studies are needed to assess these findings and provide further evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Season of prescribed burn in ponderosa pine forests in eastern Oregon: impact on pine mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind; Mark. Loewen

    2005-01-01

    A study of the effects of season of prescribed burn on tree mortality was established in mixed-age ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) at the south end of the Blue Mountains near Burns, Oregon. Each of six previously thinned stands was subdivided into three experimental units and one of three treatments was randomly assigned to each:...

  17. Incidence and impact of damage and mortality trends to South Carolina's timber, 1986

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert L. Anderson; Noel D. Cost; William H. Hoffard; Clair Redmond; Joe Glover

    1990-01-01

    On South Carolina's 12.2 million acres of timberland, 186 million cubic feet of timber were lost annually to mortality and cull between 1978 and 1986. The estimated annual monetary loss was $97.3 million. Among broad management types. natural pine, planted pine, upland hardwoods, and bottomland hardwoods - the greatest loss occurred in natural pine stands. About...

  18. The impact of Popular Health Insurance “Seguro Popular”on diabetes mortality in Mexico, 1999-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Hernández-Garduño

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Dear editor: Diabetes mellitus (DMhas been the first cause of death in females  and the second  cause in males since 2003 in Mexicans aged 20 to 79.1 A study from 1980 to 1999 showed that the age-standardized mortality rate of DM (ASMR in Mexico increased dramatically parallel to ratesof obesity.2 In 2004, half of Mexicans had no health insurance and the Popular Health Insurance or “Seguro Popular” (SP was introduced3 extending health insurance nationwide mainly for the poor. Among other diseases, SP covers free diagnostics, hospitalization and medical treatmentfor DM. By 2015, 57.1 million people in the country were enrolled in SP.4 In this letter we report the annual percent change (APC of DM’s ASMR from 1999 to 2014 in Mexicans aged 20 to 79 to determine whether the introduction of SP in 2004 has impacted DM mortality.

  19. Impact of Fraction Size on Cardiac Mortality in Women Treated With Tangential Radiotherapy for Localized Breast Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marhin, Wilson; Wai, Elaine; Tyldesley, Scott

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether fraction size affects the risk of cardiac mortality in women treated with adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) for left-sided breast cancer. Methods and Materials: A population-based retrospective study of women with a diagnosis of localized breast cancer treated with adjuvant RT in British Columbia from 1984 to 2000. Cases were identified from the British Columbia Cancer Agency database. Overall and cardiac-specific survival were compared for women treated with RT for left- vs. right-sided breast cancer. We analyzed the impact of age (≤60 vs. >60 years) at diagnosis and RT fraction size (≤2 vs. >2 Gy) on risk of fatal cardiac events. Results: We identified 3,781 women with left-sided and 3,666 women with right-sided breast cancer who received adjuvant RT. Median follow-up was 7.9 years. There were 52 vs. 47 breast cancer deaths in women treated for left- and right-sided breast cancer, respectively. There was no significant difference in cardiac mortality for women ≤60 or >60 years of age who received adjuvant RT for left-sided vs. right-sided cancer. There was no difference in cardiac mortality for women who received adjuvant RT with fraction sizes ≤2 vs. >2 Gy for left- or right-sided cancer. Conclusions: There was no evidence for increased risk of cardiac mortality in women treated with adjuvant RT after a median follow-up of 7.9 years in our cohort. Hypofractionated adjuvant RT regimens did not significantly increase the risk of cardiac mortality

  20. Ventricular tachyarrhythmias and mortality in patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator: impact of depression in the MIDAS cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastenbroek, Mirjam H; Versteeg, Henneke; Jordaens, Luc; Theuns, Dominic A M J; Pedersen, Susanne S

    2014-01-01

    We examined whether depression is independently associated with implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapy for ventricular tachyarrhythmias and mortality. A cohort of 430 consecutive patients with a first-time ICD (79% men; mean [standard deviation] age = 57.8 [12.1] years) completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale 1 day before implantation. During follow-up, the ICD was interrogated at 3-month intervals. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to examine the impact of depression on time to first appropriate ICD therapy and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up period of 3.8 years. Of all patients, 108 (25.1%) were depressed. Depression was not associated with time to first appropriate ICD therapy (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.73-1.56). However, depression was associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality (unadjusted HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.36-3.49). Depression remained independently associated with all-cause mortality (HR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.06-3.54, p = .031), after adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics. Patients who remained depressed during the first 3 months after implantation were at greatest risk for dying (HR = 2.88, 95% CI = 1.29-6.45, p = .010). The current study showed that depression at the time of implant is not associated with time to first appropriate ICD therapy but almost doubled the risk for all-cause mortality in patients with an ICD. Patients with persistent depression during the first 3 months after implantation face the greatest risk of dying. Current evidence indicates that multifactorial interventions are likely to be the most successful in terms of reducing distress. Whether this translates into enhanced survival has yet to be determined.

  1. Eosinophilia and biotoxin exposure in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from a coastal area impacted by repeated mortality events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwacke, Lori H.; Twiner, Michael J.; De Guise, Sylvain; Balmer, Brian C.; Wells, Randall S.; Townsend, Forrest I.; Rotstein, David C.; Varela, Rene A.; Hansen, Larry J.; Zolman, Eric S.; Spradlin, Trevor R.

    2010-01-01

    Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabiting coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico have been impacted by recurrent unusual mortality events over the past few decades. Several of these mortality events along the Florida panhandle have been tentatively attributed to poisoning from brevetoxin produced by the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis. While dolphins in other regions of the Florida coast are often exposed to K. brevis blooms, large-scale dolphin mortality events are relatively rare and the frequency and magnitude of die-offs along the Panhandle raise concern for the apparent vulnerability of dolphins in this region. We report results from dolphin health assessments conducted near St. Joseph Bay, Florida, an area impacted by 3 unusual die-offs within a 7-year time span. An eosinophilia syndrome, manifested as an elevated blood eosinophil count without obvious cause, was observed in 23% of sampled dolphins. Elevated eosinophil counts were associated with decreased T-lymphocyte proliferation and increased neutrophil phagocytosis. In addition, indication of chronic low-level exposure to another algal toxin, domoic acid produced by the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia spp., was determined. Previous studies of other marine mammal populations exposed recurrently to Pseudo-nitzschia blooms have suggested a possible link between the eosinophilia and domoic acid exposure. While the chronic eosinophilia syndrome could over the long-term produce organ damage and alter immunological status and thereby increase vulnerability to other challenges, the significance of the high prevalence of the syndrome to the observed mortality events in the St. Joseph Bay area is unclear. Nonetheless, the unusual immunological findings and concurrent evidence of domoic acid exposure in this sentinel marine species suggest a need for further investigation to elucidate potential links between chronic, low-level exposure to algal toxins and immune health.

  2. The impact of internal displacement on child mortality in post-earthquake Haiti: a difference-in-differences analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bradley; Halliday, Timothy J; Fan, Victoria Y

    2016-07-19

    The Haiti earthquake in 2010 resulted in 1.5 million internally displaced people (IDP), yet little is known about the impact of displacement on health. In this study, we estimate the impact of displacement on infant and child mortality and key health-behavior mechanisms. We employ a difference-in-differences (DID) design with coarsened exact matching (CEM) to ensure comparability among groups with different displacement status using the 2012 Haiti Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The participants are 21,417 births reported by a nationally representative sample of 14,287 women aged 15-49. The main independent variables are household displacement status which includes households living in camps, IDP households (not in camps), and households not displaced. The main outcomes are infant and child mortality; health status (height-for-age, anemia); uptake of public health interventions (bed net use, spraying against mosquitoes, and vaccinations); and other conditions (hunger; cholera). Births from the camp households have higher infant mortality (OR = 2.34, 95 % CI 1.15 to 4.75) and child mortality (OR = 2.34, 95 % CI 1.10 to 5.00) than those in non-camp IDP households following the earthquake. These odds are higher despite better access to food, water, bed net use, mosquito spraying, and vaccines among camp households. IDP populations are heterogeneous and households that are displaced outside of camps may be self-selected or self-insured. Meanwhile, even households not displaced by a disaster may face challenges in access to basic necessities and health services. Efforts are needed to identify vulnerable populations to provide targeted assistance in post-disaster relief.

  3. Eosinophilia and biotoxin exposure in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from a coastal area impacted by repeated mortality events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwacke, Lori H., E-mail: Lori.Schwacke@noaa.gov [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Center for Human Health Risks, 331 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, SC 29412 (United States); Twiner, Michael J. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research, 219 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, SC 29412 (United States); De Guise, Sylvain [University of Connecticut, Department of Pathobiology and Veterinary Science, 61 North Eagleville Road, U-89, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States); Balmer, Brian C.; Wells, Randall S. [Chicago Zoological Society, c/o Mote Marine Laboratory, 1600 Ken Thompson Parkway, Sarasota, FL 34236 (United States); Townsend, Forrest I. [Bayside Hospital for Animals, 251 N.E. Racetrack Road, Fort Walton Beach, FL 32547 (United States); Rotstein, David C. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Office of Protected Resources, Marine Mammal Health and Stranding Response Program, 1315 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910 (United States); Varela, Rene A. [Ocean Embassy Inc, 6433 Pinecastle Blvd, Ste 2, Orlando, FL 32809 (United States); Hansen, Larry J. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service Southeast Fisheries Science Center,101 Pivers Island Road, Beaufort, NC 28516 (United States); Zolman, Eric S. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research, 219 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, SC 29412 (United States); Spradlin, Trevor R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Office of Protected Resources, Marine Mammal Health and Stranding Response Program, 1315 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910 (United States); and others

    2010-08-15

    Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabiting coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico have been impacted by recurrent unusual mortality events over the past few decades. Several of these mortality events along the Florida panhandle have been tentatively attributed to poisoning from brevetoxin produced by the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis. While dolphins in other regions of the Florida coast are often exposed to K. brevis blooms, large-scale dolphin mortality events are relatively rare and the frequency and magnitude of die-offs along the Panhandle raise concern for the apparent vulnerability of dolphins in this region. We report results from dolphin health assessments conducted near St. Joseph Bay, Florida, an area impacted by 3 unusual die-offs within a 7-year time span. An eosinophilia syndrome, manifested as an elevated blood eosinophil count without obvious cause, was observed in 23% of sampled dolphins. Elevated eosinophil counts were associated with decreased T-lymphocyte proliferation and increased neutrophil phagocytosis. In addition, indication of chronic low-level exposure to another algal toxin, domoic acid produced by the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia spp., was determined. Previous studies of other marine mammal populations exposed recurrently to Pseudo-nitzschia blooms have suggested a possible link between the eosinophilia and domoic acid exposure. While the chronic eosinophilia syndrome could over the long-term produce organ damage and alter immunological status and thereby increase vulnerability to other challenges, the significance of the high prevalence of the syndrome to the observed mortality events in the St. Joseph Bay area is unclear. Nonetheless, the unusual immunological findings and concurrent evidence of domoic acid exposure in this sentinel marine species suggest a need for further investigation to elucidate potential links between chronic, low-level exposure to algal toxins and immune health.

  4. Assessing the Impact of U.S. Food Assistance Delivery Policies on Child Mortality in Northern Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Nikulkov

    Full Text Available The U.S. is the main country in the world that delivers its food assistance primarily via transoceanic shipments of commodity-based in-kind food. This approach is costlier and less timely than cash-based assistance, which includes cash transfers, food vouchers, and local and regional procurement, where food is bought in or nearby the recipient country. The U.S.'s approach is exacerbated by a requirement that half of its transoceanic food shipments need to be sent on U.S.-flag vessels. We estimate the effect of these U.S. food assistance distribution policies on child mortality in northern Kenya by formulating and optimizing a supply chain model. In our model, monthly orders of transoceanic shipments and cash-based interventions are chosen to minimize child mortality subject to an annual budget constraint and to policy constraints on the allowable proportions of cash-based interventions and non-US-flag shipments. By varying the restrictiveness of these policy constraints, we assess the impact of possible changes in U.S. food aid policies on child mortality. The model includes an existing regression model that uses household survey data and geospatial data to forecast the mean mid-upper-arm circumference Z scores among children in a community, and allows food assistance to increase Z scores, and Z scores to influence mortality rates. We find that cash-based interventions are a much more powerful policy lever than the U.S.-flag vessel requirement: switching to cash-based interventions reduces child mortality from 4.4% to 3.7% (a 16.2% relative reduction in our model, whereas eliminating the U.S.-flag vessel restriction without increasing the use of cash-based interventions generates a relative reduction in child mortality of only 1.1%. The great majority of the gains achieved by cash-based interventions are due to their reduced cost, not their reduced delivery lead times; i.e., the reduction of shipping expenses allows for more food to be delivered

  5. Assessing the Impact of U.S. Food Assistance Delivery Policies on Child Mortality in Northern Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikulkov, Alex; Barrett, Christopher B; Mude, Andrew G; Wein, Lawrence M

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. is the main country in the world that delivers its food assistance primarily via transoceanic shipments of commodity-based in-kind food. This approach is costlier and less timely than cash-based assistance, which includes cash transfers, food vouchers, and local and regional procurement, where food is bought in or nearby the recipient country. The U.S.'s approach is exacerbated by a requirement that half of its transoceanic food shipments need to be sent on U.S.-flag vessels. We estimate the effect of these U.S. food assistance distribution policies on child mortality in northern Kenya by formulating and optimizing a supply chain model. In our model, monthly orders of transoceanic shipments and cash-based interventions are chosen to minimize child mortality subject to an annual budget constraint and to policy constraints on the allowable proportions of cash-based interventions and non-US-flag shipments. By varying the restrictiveness of these policy constraints, we assess the impact of possible changes in U.S. food aid policies on child mortality. The model includes an existing regression model that uses household survey data and geospatial data to forecast the mean mid-upper-arm circumference Z scores among children in a community, and allows food assistance to increase Z scores, and Z scores to influence mortality rates. We find that cash-based interventions are a much more powerful policy lever than the U.S.-flag vessel requirement: switching to cash-based interventions reduces child mortality from 4.4% to 3.7% (a 16.2% relative reduction) in our model, whereas eliminating the U.S.-flag vessel restriction without increasing the use of cash-based interventions generates a relative reduction in child mortality of only 1.1%. The great majority of the gains achieved by cash-based interventions are due to their reduced cost, not their reduced delivery lead times; i.e., the reduction of shipping expenses allows for more food to be delivered, which reduces

  6. Impact of respiratory disease, diarrhea, otitis and arthritis on mortality and carcass traits in white veal calves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardon, Bart; Hostens, Miel; Duchateau, Luc; Dewulf, Jeroen; De Bleecker, Koen; Deprez, Piet

    2013-04-15

    Little is known on the effects of common calf diseases on mortality and carcass traits in the white veal industry (special-fed veal), a highly integrated production system, currently criticized for the intensive pro- and metaphylactic use of antimicrobials. The objective of the present study was to determine the impact of bovine respiratory disease (BRD), diarrhea, arthritis and otitis on the economically important parameters of mortality, hot carcass weight (HCW), carcass quality, fat cover and meat color. For this purpose, a prospective study on 3519 white veal calves, housed in 10 commercial herds, was conducted. Case definitions were based on clinical observation by the producers and written treatment records were used. Calves received oral antimicrobial group treatments in the milk during 25.2% of the production time on average. With an increasing percentage of the production cycle spent on oral antimicrobials, HCW reduced, whereas the odds for insufficient fat cover or an undesirable red meat color both decreased. Of the calves, 14.8%, 5.3%, 1.5% and 1.6% were individually diagnosed and treated for BRD, diarrhea, arthritis and otitis, respectively. Overall, 5.7% of the calves died and the mortality risk was higher in the first weeks after arrival. Calves that experienced one BRD episode showed a 8.2 kg reduction in HCW, a lower fat cover and an increased mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR) = 5.5), compared to calves which were not individually diagnosed and treated for BRD. With an increasing number of BRD episodes, these losses increased dramatically. Additionally, calves, which experienced multiple BRD episodes, were more likely to have poor carcass quality and an undesirable red meat color at slaughter. Arthritis increased the mortality risk (HR = 3.9), and reduced HCW only when associated with BRD. Otitis did only increase the mortality risk (HR = 7.0). Diarrhea severely increased the mortality risk (HR = 11.0), reduced HCW by 9.2 kg on

  7. The impacts of health, education, family planning and electrification programs on fertility, mortality and child schooling in East Java, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirakartakusumah, M D

    1988-06-01

    This paper examines the effects of public health, family planning, education, electrification, and water supply programs on fertility, child mortality, and school enrollment decisions of rural households in East Java, Indonesia. The theoretical model assumes that parents maximize a utility function, subject to 1) a budget constraint that equates income with expenditures on children (including schooling and health inputs), and 2) a production function that relates health inputs to child survival possibilities. Public programs affect prices of contraceptives, schooling and health inputs, and environmental conditions that in turn affect child survival. Data are taken from the 1980 East Java Population Survey, the Socio-economic Survey, and the Detailed Village Census. The final sample consists of 3170 rural households with married women of childbearing age. Ordinary least squares and logit regressions of recent fertility, child mortality, and school enrollment on program and household variables yielded the following findings. 1) The presence of maternal and child health clinics reduced fertility but not mortality. 2) The presence of public health centers strongly reduced mortality but not fertility. 3) The presence of contraceptive distribution centers had no effect on fertility. 4) School attendance rates were influenced positively by the availability of primary and secondary schools. 5) Health and family planning programs had no effects on schooling. 6) The availability of public latrines reduced fertility and mortality. 7) The water supply variable did not affect the dependent variables when ordinary least squares techniques were applied but had statistically significant impact when logit methods were used. 8) Electricity supply had little effect on the dependent variables. 9) The mother's schooling had a strong positive correlation with children's schooling but no effect on fertility or mortality. 10) Household expenditures were related positively to school

  8. Compensatory vapor loss and biogeochemical attenuation along flowpaths mute the water resources impacts of insect-induced forest mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biederman, J. A.; Brooks, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; Gochis, D. J.; Ewers, B. E.; Reed, D. E.; Gutmann, E. D.

    2013-12-01

    Forested montane catchments are critical to the amount and quality of downstream water resources. In western North America more than 60 million people rely on mountain precipitation, and water managers face uncertain response to an unprecedented forest die-off from mountain pine beetle (MPB) infestation. Reduced snow interception and transpiration are expected to increase streamflow, while increased organic matter decay is expected to increase biogeochemical stream fluxes. Tree- to plot-scale observations have documented some of the expected changes, but there has been little significant change to streamflow or water quality at the larger scales relevant to water resources. A critical gap exists in our understanding of why tree-scale process changes have not led to the expected, large-scale increases in streamflow and biogeochemical fluxes. We address this knowledge gap with observations of water and biogeochemical fluxes at nested spatial scales including tree, hillslope, and catchments from 3 to 700 ha with more than 75% mortality. Catchment discharge showed reduced water yield consistent with co-located eddy covariance observations showing increased vapor losses following MPB. Stable water isotopes showed progressive kinetic fractionation (i.e. unsaturated transition layer above the evaporating surface) in snowpack, soil water and streams indicating greater abiotic evaporation from multiple water sources offsetting decreased interception and transpiration. In the 3rd to 5th years following MPB forest mortality, soil water DOC and DON were similar beneath killed and healthy trees, but concentrations were elevated 2-10 times in groundwater of MPB-impacted sites as compared to unimpacted. Stream water DOC and DON were about 3 times as large during snowmelt runoff in ephemeral zero-order channels of MPB-impacted sites compared to unimpacted. Processing in the headwater streams of MPB-impacted forests rapidly attenuated dissolved organic matter. From the MPB-impacted

  9. Factors Impacting Mortality in the Pre-Hospital Period After Road Traffic Accidents in Urban India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasekharan, Ananthnarayan; Nanavati, Aditya J; Prabhakar, Sandhya; Prabhakar, Subramaniam

    2016-07-01

    India currently has the dubious distinction of experiencing the highest number of road traffic accidents in the world. We believe that this study on road traffic accidents may help to identify factors in the pre-hospital setting that may influence mortality rates. A prospective observational study was carried out in a metro area in India over a period of one year. The study included consecutive patients admitted to the trauma service after road traffic accidents. Demographic information, time and place of accident, and details regarding the vehicle and the events leading up to the hospital admission were recorded. Injury severity, management in the hospital, and final outcomes in terms of mortality were noted. The data were analyzed with SPSS software. A total of 773 patients were enrolled. Of these, there were 197 deaths and 576 survivors. The majority of patients were aged 15 - 40 years (67%) and were male (87.84%). More accidents occurred at night (58.2%) than during the day (41.8%). Mortality was not significantly associated with age, sex, or time of accident. City roads (38.9%) saw more accidents than highways (26.13%), but highway accidents were more likely to be fatal. Two-wheeler riders (37.65%) and pedestrians (35.75%) formed the majority of our study population. Mortality was significantly associated with crossing the road on foot (P = 0.004). Pillion riders on two-wheeler vehicles were more likely to experience poor outcomes (relative risk [RR] = 1.9, P = 0.001). Front-seat occupants in four-wheeler vehicles were at an increased risk of not surviving the accident (61.98%; RR=2.56, P = 0.01). Lack of safety gear, such as helmets, seat belts, and airbags, was significantly associated with mortality (P = 0.05). Delays in transfers of patients to the hospital and a lack of pre-hospital emergency services was significantly associated with increased mortality (P = 0.000). A lack of respect for the law, weak legislation and law enforcement, disregard for

  10. Reasons for refusal of admission to intensive care and impact on mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iapichino, Gaetano; Corbella, Davide; Minelli, Cosetta; Mills, Gary H; Artigas, Antonio; Edbooke, David L; Pezzi, Angelo; Kesecioglu, Jozef; Patroniti, Nicolò; Baras, Mario; Sprung, Charles L

    2010-10-01

    To identify factors influencing triage decisions and investigate whether admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) could reduce mortality compared with treatment on the ward. A multicentre cohort study in 11 university hospitals from seven countries, evaluating triage decisions and outcomes of patients referred for admission to ICU who were either accepted, or refused and treated on the ward. Confounding in the estimation of the effect of ICU admission on mortality was controlled by use of a propensity score approach, which adjusted for the probability of being admitted. Variability across centres was accounted for in both analyses of factors influencing ICU admission and effect of ICU admission on mortality. Eligible were 8,616 triages in 7,877 patients referred for ICU admission. Variables positively associated with probability of being admitted to ICU included: ventilators in ward; bed availability; Karnofsky score; absence of comorbidity; presence of haematological malignancy; emergency surgery and elective surgery (versus medical treatment); trauma, vascular involvement, liver involvement; acute physiologic score II; ICU treatment (versus ICU observation). Multiple triages during patient's hospital stay and age were negatively associated with ICU admission. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the model was 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-0.84], with Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.300. ICU admission was associated with a statistically significant reduction of both 28-day mortality [odds ratio (OR): 0.73; 95% CI: 0.62-0.87] and 90-day mortality (0.79; 0.66-0.93). The benefit of ICU admission increased substantially in patients with greater severity of illness. We suggest that intensivists take great care to avoid ICU admission of patients judged not severe enough for ICU or with low performance status, and they tend to admit surgical patients more readily than medical patients. Interestingly, they do not judge age per se as

  11. Heat-related deaths among California residents, May-September, 2000-2009.

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Environmental Health Tracking Program — This dataset contains counts, rates, and confidence intervals of heat-related deaths among California residents for the years 2000-2009. These data are stratified by...

  12. Impact of appropriate empirical antibiotic treatment on recurrence and mortality in patients with bacteraemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gradel, Kim O.; Jensen, Ulrich S; Schønheyder, Henrik C.

    2017-01-01

    of bacteraemia patients. Methods: A cohort study including all patients hospitalized with incident bacteraemia during 2007-2008 in the Copenhagen City and County areas and the North Denmark Region. EAT was defined as the antibiotic treatment given at the 1st notification of a positive blood culture...... models. Results: In 6483 eligible patients, 712 (11%) had a recurrent episode. A total of 3778 (58%) patients received appropriate EAT, 1290 (20%) received inappropriate EAT, while EAT status was unrecorded for 1415 (22%) patients. The 2-30 day mortality was 15.1%, 17.4% and 19.2% in patients receiving...... appropriate EAT, inappropriate EAT, and unknown EAT, respectively. Among patients alive on day 30, the 31-365 day mortality was 22.3% in patients given appropriate EAT compared to 30.7% in those given inappropriate EAT. Inappropriate EAT was independently associated with recurrence (HR 1.25; 95% CI = 1...

  13. Impact of type 1 diabetes on maternal long-term risk of hospitalisation and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knorr, Sine; Juul, Svend; Bytoft, Birgitte

    2018-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aims of this study were to examine long-term mortality and morbidity rates in mothers with type 1 diabetes, both overall and according to the level of albuminuria prior to pregnancy, the presence of hypertension, pre-eclampsia and periconceptional HbA1c. METHODS: This study...... was a part of the EPICOM (Environmental Versus Genetic and Epigenetic Influences on Growth, Metabolism and Cognitive Function in Offspring of Mothers with Type 1 Diabetes) study, which is a prospective follow-up study focusing on pregnancies complicated by maternal type 1 diabetes. We carried out...... a nationwide combined clinical and register-based cohort study of mortality rates and hospital admissions in mothers with diabetes (n = 986) who gave birth between 1992 and 2000. Control mothers (n = 91,441) were women from the background population, matched according to age and year of childbirth. Age...

  14. Impact of long term care and mortality risk in community care and nursing homes populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Hugo; Mateus, Céu; Rosati, Nicoletta

    To identify the survival time, the mortality risk factors and the individuals' characteristics associated with cognitive and physical status at discharge, among the Portuguese long-term care (LTC) populations. Home-and-Community-Based Services (HCBS) and three types of Nursing Homes (NH). 20,984 individuals admitted and discharged in 2015. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox Proportional Hazards Models were used to study the mortality risk; the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to identify the number of individuals with cognitive and physical changes between admission and discharge; two cumulative odds ordinal logistic regressions to predict the cognitive and physical dependence levels at discharge RESULTS: The mortality rate at HCBS was 30%, and 17% at the NH, with a median survival time of 173 and 200 days, respectively. The main factors associated with higher mortality were older age, male gender, family/neighbour support, neoplasms and cognitive/physical dependence at admission. In NH/HCBS, 26%/18% of individuals improve their cognitive status, while in physical status the proportion was 38%/27%, respectively. Finally, older age, being illiterate and being classified at the lowest cognitive and physical status at admission decrease the likelihood of achieving a higher level of cognitive and physical independence at discharge. The adoption of a robust and complete assessment tool, the definition of guidelines to enable a periodical assessment of individuals' autonomy and the adoption of benchmark metrics allowing the comparison of results between similar units are some of the main goals to be taken into account for future developments of this care in Portugal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. The impact of suicide on morbidity and mortality in the population of Itabira

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edinilsa Ramos de Souza

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The suicide rates in Itabira, a city with 100,000 inhabitants, are higher than those of the Brazilian population. To understand the phenomenon we investigated morbidity and mortality through a descriptive epidemiological study, with emphasis to external causes and specific subgroups. Suicide was studied according to the characteristics of victims and events. The period studied was 1990-2001. Mortality data were collected from the Mortality Information System and morbidity data for the year 2000 from the Hospital Admission Authorization System. An active data search on suicide over the period 1996-2001 based on sex, age and occupation of the victim, month of occurrence and method used in completed and attempted suicides was conducted at the local notary's office and at the state police headquarters. Based on these data we calculated proportions, rates and mean values. The populations used for calculating the rates were extracted from the DATASUS base. Results indicated an increasing tendency to suicide among men, coinciding with the economical crisis caused by the reorganization of the iron production process in this mono-industrial city. Suicide attempts were more frequent among housewives, housekeepers and students. The mostly used methods were hanging and firearms. Relevant means used in suicide attempts were nonmedicinal substances, drugs and medicaments.

  16. Spatial patterns of coral survivorship: impacts of adult proximity versus other drivers of localized mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Gibbs

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Species-specific enemies may promote prey coexistence through negative distance- and density-dependent survival of juveniles near conspecific adults. We tested this mechanism by transplanting juvenile-sized fragments of the brooding corals Pocillopora damicornis and Seriatopora hystrix 3, 12, 24 and 182 cm up- and down-current of conspecific adults and monitoring their survival and condition over time. We also characterized the spatial distribution of P. damicornis and S. hystrix within replicate plots on three Fijian reef flats and measured the distribution of small colonies within 2 m of larger colonies of each species. Juvenile-sized transplants exhibited no differences in survivorship as a function of distance from adult P. damicornis or S. hystrix. Additionally, both P. damicornis and S. hystrix were aggregated rather than overdispersed on natural reefs. However, a pattern of juveniles being aggregated near adults while larger (and probably older colonies were not suggests that greater mortality near large adults could occur over longer periods of time or that size-dependent mortality was occurring. While we found minimal evidence of greater mortality of small colonies near adult conspecifics in our transplant experiments, we did document hot-spots of species-specific corallivory. We detected spatially localized and temporally persistent predation on P. damicornis by the territorial triggerfish Balistapus undulatus. This patchy predation did not occur for S. hystrix. This variable selective regime in an otherwise more uniform environment could be one mechanism maintaining diversity of corals on Indo-Pacific reefs.

  17. Impact of light rail transit on traffic-related pollution and stroke mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eun Sug; Sener, Ipek Nese

    2017-09-01

    This paper evaluates the changes in vehicle exhaust and stroke mortality for the general public residing in the surrounding area of the light rail transit (LRT) in Houston, Texas, after its opening. The number of daily deaths due to stroke for 2002-2005 from the surrounding area of the original LRT line (exposure group) and the control groups was analyzed using an interrupted time-series analysis. Ambient concentrations of acetylene before and after the opening of LRT were also compared. A statistically significant reduction in the average concentration of acetylene was observed for the exposure sites whereas the reduction was negligible at the control site. Poisson regression models applied to the stroke mortality data indicated a significant reduction in daily stroke mortality after the opening of LRT for the exposure group, while there was either an increase or a considerably smaller reduction for the control groups. The findings support the idea that LRT systems provide health benefits for the general public and that the reduction in motor-vehicle-related air pollution may have contributed to these health benefits.

  18. The impact of co-morbidity burden on appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruwald, Anne Christine; Vinther, Michael; Gislason, Gunnar H

    2017-01-01

    -ICD indication-related co-morbidities including atrial fibrillation, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic renal disease, liver disease, cancer, chronic psychiatric disease, and peripheral and/or cerebrovascular disease, and divided into four groups (co-morbidity burden 0, 1, 2, and ≥3......). Through Cox models, we assessed the impact of co-morbidity burden on appropriate ICD therapy and mortality. Increasing co-morbidity burden was not associated with increased risk of appropriate therapy, irrespective of implant indication [all hazard ratios (HRs) 1.0-1.4, P = NS]. Using no co...

  19. Risk factors for and impact of respiratory failure on mortality in the early phase of acute pancreatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dombernowsky, Tilde; Kristensen, Marlene Østermark; Rysgaard, Sisse

    2016-01-01

    : Retrospective cohort study including 359 patients admitted with acute pancreatitis. Information was gathered from electronic patient records. We defined respiratory failure based on the modified Marshall scoring system in the revised Atlanta criteria. Predictors of respiratory failure were evaluated......, or pneumonia may develop respiratory failure, suggests that acute lung injury, possibly associated with systemic inflammation, may be important.......BACKGROUND: The incidence of respiratory failure and other respiratory complications in the early phase of acute pancreatitis (AP) is not well investigated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of respiratory failure, and its impact on mortality in the early phase AP. METHODS...

  20. Impact of the economic crisis on the health of older persons in Spain: research clues based on an analysis of mortality. SESPAS report 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benmarhnia, Tarik; Zunzunegui, Maria-Victoria; Llácer, Alicia; Béland, Francois

    2014-06-01

    Older adults are seldom considered in studies on the health impact of economic recessions or crises. However, they constitute a population group that is highly vulnerable to decreases in investment in health and social services and social security. Our aim is to examine the relationship between the economic crisis starting in 2008 and the health status of older adults in Spain. More specifically, we analyze changes in trends of mortality in relation to the crisis, the specific impact of winter on mortality and gender differences in the crisis' impact on mortality. Using data from the National Institute of Statistics of Spain on people over 60 years of age, the number of monthly deaths by age and sex from January 2005 to December 2012 was analyzed. Interrupted time series analyses and the "difference in differences" method were used. During the crisis, for adults 60 years and older: 1) the observed mortality seems to be decreasing at a slower rate than what would have been expected in the absence of the crisis; 2) there has been an increase in winter mortality; 3) the impact of the crisis has been greater for female than for male mortality. These results suggest sizable effects of the economic crisis on the mortality of older adults and argue for research done using more detailed analyses integrating economic indicators. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  1. Impact of the economic crisis on the health of older persons in Spain: research clues based on an analysis of mortality. SESPAS report 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarik Benmarhnia

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Older adults are seldom considered in studies on the health impact of economic recessions or crises. However, they constitute a population group that is highly vulnerable to decreases in investment in health and social services and social security. Our aim is to examine the relationship between the economic crisis starting in 2008 and the health status of older adults in Spain. More specifically, we analyze changes in trends of mortality in relation to the crisis, the specific impact of winter on mortality and gender differences in the crisis’ impact on mortality. Using data from the National Institute of Statistics of Spain on people over 60 years of age, the number of monthly deaths by age and sex from January 2005 to December 2012 was analyzed. Interrupted time series analyses and the “difference in differences” method were used. During the crisis, for adults 60 years and older: 1 the observed mortality seems to be decreasing at a slower rate than what would have been expected in the absence of the crisis; 2 there has been an increase in winter mortality; 3 the impact of the crisis has been greater for female than for male mortality. These results suggest sizable effects of the economic crisis on the mortality of older adults and argue for research done using more detailed analyses integrating economic indicators.

  2. Study of the impact of training of registered nurses in cardiopulmonary resuscitation in a tertiary care centre on patient mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayureshkumar Pareek

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Nurses should have cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR knowledge and skills to be able to implement effective interventions during in-hospital cardiac arrest. The aim of this descriptive study was to assess mortality impact after nurses' CPR training with pre-CPR training data at our institute. Methods: Training regarding CPR was given to nurses, and CPR mortality 1-year before basic life support (BLS and advanced cardiac life support (ACLS training were collected and compared with post-training 1-year CPR mortality. Results: A total of 632 adult patients suffering in-hospital cardiac arrest over the study period. CPR was attempted in 294 patients during the pre-BLS/ACLS training period and in 338 patients in the post-BLS/ACLS training period. In the pre-BLS/ACLS training period, 58 patients (19.7% had return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC, while during the post-BLS/ACLS training period, 102 patients (30.1% had ROSC (P = 0.003. Sixteen of the 58 patients (27.5% who achieved ROSC during the pre-BLS/ACLS training period survived to hospital discharge, compared 54 out of 102 patients (52.9% in the post-BLS/ACLS training period (P < 0.0001. There was no significant association between either the age or sex with the outcomes in the study. Conclusion: Training nurses in cardiopulmonary resuscitation resulted in a significant improvement in survival to hospital discharge after in-hospital cardiac arrest.

  3. The Long Winding Road to Transplant: How Sarcopenia and Debility Impact Morbidity and Mortality on the Waitlist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhanji, Rahima A; Carey, Elizabeth J; Yang, Liu; Watt, Kymberly D

    2017-10-01

    Frailty and sarcopenia are common complications of cirrhosis. Frailty has been described as an increased susceptibility to stressors secondary to a cumulative decline in physiologic reserve; this decline occurs with aging or is a result of the disease process, across multiple organ systems. Sarcopenia, a key component of frailty, is defined as progressive and generalized loss of skeletal muscle mass and strength. The presence of either of these complications is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, as these are tightly linked to decompensation and increased complication rates. Recognition of these entities is critical. Studies have shown improvement in muscle strength and function lead to reduced mortality, suggesting both frailty and sarcopenia are modifiable risk factors. In this review we outline the prevalence of frailty and sarcopenia in cirrhosis and the impact on clinical outcomes such as decompensation, hospitalization, and mortality. Existing and potential novel therapeutic approaches for frailty and sarcopenia are also reviewed. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Mortality Implications of Mortality Plateaus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Missov, T. I.; Vaupel, J. W.

    2015-01-01

    This article aims to describe in a unified framework all plateau-generating random effects models in terms of (i) plausible distributions for the hazard (baseline mortality) and the random effect (unobserved heterogeneity, frailty) as well as (ii) the impact of frailty on the baseline hazard...

  5. Impact of shocks on mortality in patients with ischemic or dilated cardiomyopathy and defibrillators implanted for primary prevention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Streitner

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Emerging interest is seen in the paradox of defibrillator shocks for ventricular tachyarrhythmia and increased mortality risk. Particularly in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM, the prognostic importance of shocks is unclear. The purpose of this study was to compare the outcome after shocks in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM or DCM and defibrillators (ICD implanted for primary prevention. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data of 561 patients were analyzed (mean age 68.6±10.6 years, mean left ventricular ejection fraction 28.6±7.3%. During a median follow-up of 49.3 months, occurrence of device therapies and all-cause mortality were recorded. 74 out of 561 patients (13.2% experienced ≥1 appropriate and 51 out of 561 patients (9.1% ≥1 inappropriate shock. All-cause mortality was 24.2% (136 out of 561 subjects. Appropriate shock was associated with a trend to higher mortality in the overall patient population (HR 1.48, 95% CI 0.96-2.28, log rank p = 0.072. The effect was significant in ICM patients (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.00-2.59, log rank p = 0.049 but not in DCM patients (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.36-2.96, log rank p = 0.96. Appropriate shocks occurring before the median follow-up revealed a much stronger impact on mortality (HR for the overall patient population 2.12, 95% CI 1.24-3.63, p = 0.005. The effect was driven by ICM patients (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.41-4.37, p = 0.001, as appropriate shocks again did not influence survival of DCM patients (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.083-4.75, p = 0.65. Appropriate shocks occurring after the median follow-up and inappropriate shocks occurring at any time revealed no impact on survival in any of the groups (p = ns. CONCLUSION: Appropriate shocks are associated with reduced survival in patients with ICM but not in patients with DCM and ICDs implanted for primary prevention. Furthermore, the negative effect of appropriate shocks on survival in ICM patients is only evident within the

  6. Impact of Oxidant Gases on the Relationship between Outdoor Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Nonaccidental, Cardiovascular, and Respiratory Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weichenthal, Scott; Pinault, Lauren L; Burnett, Richard T

    2017-11-27

    Outdoor fine particulate air pollution (PM 2.5 ) is known to increase mortality risk and is recognized as an important contributor to global disease burden. However, less is known about how oxidant gases may modify the chronic health effects of PM 2.5 . In this study, we examined how the oxidant capacity of O 3 and NO 2 (using a redox-weighted average, O x ) may modify the relationship between PM 2.5 and mortality in the 2001 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort. In total, 2,448,500 people were followed over a 10.6-year period. Each 3.86 µg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 was associated with nonaccidental (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.095, 95% CI: 1.077, 1.112), cardiovascular (HR = 1.088, 95% CI: 1.059, 1.118), and respiratory mortality (HR = 1.110, 95% CI: 1.051, 1.171) in the highest tertile of O x whereas weaker/null associations were observed in the middle and lower tertiles. Analysis of joint non-linear concentration-response relationships for PM 2.5 and O x suggested threshold concentrations between approximately 23 and 25 ppb with O x concentrations above these values strengthening PM 2.5 -mortality associations. Overall, our findings suggest that oxidant gases enhance the chronic health risks of PM 2.5 . In some areas, reductions in O x concentrations may have the added benefit of reducing the public health impacts of PM 2.5 even if mass concentrations remain unchanged.

  7. [Relevance of Vascular Trauma in Trauma Care - Impact on Clinical Course and Mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lech, L; Jerkku, T; Kanz, K-G; Wierer, M; Mutschler, W; Koeppel, T A; Lefering, R; Banafsche, R

    2016-10-01

    There is a lack of evidence as to the relevance of vascular trauma (VT) in patients with severe injuries. Therefore, we reviewed registry data in the present study in order to systematically objectify the effect of VT in these patients. This study aimed to provide an adequate picture of the relevance of vascular trauma and to identify adverse prognostic factors. In a retrospective analysis of records from the TraumaRegister DGU® (TR-DGU) in two subgroups with moderate and severe VT, we examined the records for differences in terms of morbidity, mortality, follow-up and prognostic parameters compared to patients without VT with the same ISS. From a total of 42,326 patients, 2,961 (7 %) had a VT, and in 2,437 cases a severe VT (AIS ≥ 3) was diagnosed (5.8 %). In addition to a higher incidence of shock and a 2 to 3-fold increase in fluid replacement and erythrocyte transfusion, patients with severe VT had a 60 % higher rate of multiple organ failure, and in-hospital mortality was twice as high (33.8 %). The massively increased early mortality (8.0 vs. 25.2 %) clearly illustrates how severely injured patients are placed at risk by the presence of a relevant VT with a comparable ISS. In our opinion, due to an unexpected poor prognosis in the TR-DGU data for vascular injuries, increased attention is required in the care of severely injured patients. Based on our comprehensive analysis of negative prognostic factors, a further adjustment to the standards of vascular medicine could be advisable. The influence of the level of care provided by the admitting hospital and the relevance of a further hospital transfer to prognosis and clinical outcome is currently being analysed. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  8. Coho salmon spawner mortality in western US urban watersheds: bioinfiltration prevents lethal storm water impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spromberg, Julann A; Baldwin, David H; Damm, Steven E; McIntyre, Jenifer K; Huff, Michael; Sloan, Catherine A; Anulacion, Bernadita F; Davis, Jay W; Scholz, Nathaniel L

    2016-04-01

    Adult coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch return each autumn to freshwater spawning habitats throughout western North America. The migration coincides with increasing seasonal rainfall, which in turn increases storm water run-off, particularly in urban watersheds with extensive impervious land cover. Previous field assessments in urban stream networks have shown that adult coho are dying prematurely at high rates (>50%). Despite significant management concerns for the long-term conservation of threatened wild coho populations, a causal role for toxic run-off in the mortality syndrome has not been demonstrated.We exposed otherwise healthy coho spawners to: (i) artificial storm water containing mixtures of metals and petroleum hydrocarbons, at or above concentrations previously measured in urban run-off; (ii) undiluted storm water collected from a high traffic volume urban arterial road (i.e. highway run-off); and (iii) highway run-off that was first pre-treated via bioinfiltration through experimental soil columns to remove pollutants.We find that mixtures of metals and petroleum hydrocarbons - conventional toxic constituents in urban storm water - are not sufficient to cause the spawner mortality syndrome. By contrast, untreated highway run-off collected during nine distinct storm events was universally lethal to adult coho relative to unexposed controls. Lastly, the mortality syndrome was prevented when highway run-off was pretreated by soil infiltration, a conventional green storm water infrastructure technology.Our results are the first direct evidence that: (i) toxic run-off is killing adult coho in urban watersheds, and (ii) inexpensive mitigation measures can improve water quality and promote salmon survival. Synthesis and applications . Coho salmon, an iconic species with exceptional economic and cultural significance, are an ecological sentinel for the harmful effects of untreated urban run-off. Wild coho populations cannot withstand the high rates of

  9. Impact of pharmaceutical care on adherence, hospitalisations and mortality in elderly patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Charlotte; Harbig, Philipp; Buus, Kirsten Marie

    2014-01-01

    = 315) was designed. It involved patients aged 65+ years living in Aarhus, Denmark who used five drugs or more without assistance. Pharmacists visited the pharmaceuticalcare patients at home, once only, and followed them during the subsequent year with three telephone calls. Non-adherence was measured......, hospitalisation and mortality. Results The final analyses included 517 patients (median age 74 years; females 52 %). Dropouts were more frequent for the pharmaceutical-care group than for controls. Pharmacists encountered drug-related problems amongst 72 % of pharmaceutical-care patients. Pharmaceutical...

  10. Intensity versus duration of cycling, impact on all-cause and coronary heart disease mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schnohr, Peter; Marott, Jacob L; Jensen, Jan S

    2012-01-01

    Background: Current recommendations prescribe that every adult should accumulate 30¿minutes or more of moderate physical activity in leisure time, preferably every day of the week. The optimal intensity, duration, and frequency still have to be established. The aim of this study was to examine......: Our findings indicate that the relative intensity, and not the duration of cycling, is of more importance in relation to all-cause and coronary heart disease mortality. Thus our general recommendations to all adults would be that brisk cycling is preferable to slow....

  11. Impact of pre-existing co-morbidities on mortality in granulomatosis with polyangiitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faurschou, Mikkel; Ahlström, Magnus Glindvad; Lindhardsen, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    of pre-existing co-morbidities among the patients was quantified according to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Each patient was matched with five age- and gender-matched population controls with no pre-existing co-morbidities captured by the CCI (CCI score = 0). The study subjects were followed...... throughout 2010. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate mortality rate ratios (MRRs). RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up in the GPA cohort was 5.8 years (interquartile range 2.3-10.0). Compared with their matched population controls, the MRR for patients presenting with a CCI score of 0 (n...

  12. Comparative larval growth and mortality of mesopelagic fishes and their predatory impact on zooplankton in the Kuroshio region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sassa, Chiyuki; Takahashi, Motomitsu

    2018-01-01

    Larvae of mesopelagic fishes usually dominate in oceanic larval fish assemblages, but detailed investigations of their ecology are limited and thus preclude full assessment of the ecosystem structure and dynamics in oceanic waters. Here, we examined the growth and mortality of six taxa of numerically dominant mesopelagic fish larvae and their predatory impact on zooplankton in the Kuroshio region off southern Japan during late winter. The weight-specific growth coefficient (Gw) ranged from 0.077 (Sigmops gracilis) to 0.156 d-1 (Vinciguerria nimbaria), and the instantaneous daily mortality coefficient (M) from 0.067 (S. gracilis) to 0.143 d-1 (Myctophum asperum). The ratio Gw/M, an index of stage-specific survival of the larvae, was from 0.90 (Notoscopelus japonicus) to 1.24 (V. nimbaria), without a significant difference from a value of 1 in all species. Based on the reported relationship between Gw and ingestion rate of the larval fishes, the daily ration of each species was calculated to be 32-57% of body dry weight d-1. Mean and 95% confidence interval of food requirements of the six taxa of larvae was 1.41 ± 0.55 mg C m-2 d-1. Predatory impact of the mesopelagic fish larvae on the production rate of the available prey was estimated to be approximately 3.5-5.2%, implying that the larvae have a low level but consistent effect on zooplankton production in the oligotrophic Kuroshio region.

  13. Health impacts of air pollution on morbidity and mortality among children of Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico : working paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romieu, I.; Aguilar, M.R.; Macias, H.M.; Villarreal, A.B.; Cadena, L.H.; Arroyo, L.C.

    2003-01-01

    This study evaluated the impact of air pollution on a group of children in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico where a large urban population of children live in poor conditions. In particular, the study examined the associations between ozone ambient levels and respiratory-related emergency visits to hospitals by children. The impact of PM10 on respiratory health was also examined. Upper respiratory infections and asthma were found to be associated with ozone ambient levels for all age groups. In children aged 5 or less, ozone exposure was related to lower respiratory infections as well. Ambient air pollutants were not related to respiratory deaths in the population of children involved in this study, but data suggests that that PM10 ambient levels might increase the risk of respiratory mortality in infants less than one year old. An increase in respiratory mortality was noted among infants from the lowest socio-economic status (SES) group. This report emphasizes the need for implementing cost effective interventions to control existing air pollution problems and to prevent the situation from worsening. 22 refs., 27 tabs., 5 figs

  14. Mesothelioma mortality in Europe: impact of asbestos consumption and simian virus 40

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehak Peter

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is well established that asbestos is the most important cause of mesothelioma. The role of simian virus 40 (SV40 in mesothelioma development, on the other hand, remains controversial. This potential human oncogene has been introduced into various populations through contaminated polio vaccines. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the possible presence of SV40 in various European countries, as indicated either by molecular genetic evidence or previous exposure to SV40-contaminated vaccines, had any effect on pleural cancer rates in the respective countries. Methods We conducted a Medline search that covered the period from January 1969 to August 2005 for reports on the detection of SV40 DNA in human tissue samples. In addition, we collected all available information about the types of polio vaccines that had been used in these European countries and their SV40 contamination status. Results Our ecological analysis confirms that pleural cancer mortality in males, but not in females, correlates with the extent of asbestos exposure 25 – 30 years earlier. In contrast, neither the presence of SV40 DNA in tumor samples nor a previous vaccination exposure had any detectable influence on the cancer mortality rate in neither in males (asbestos-corrected rates nor in females. Conclusion Using the currently existing data on SV40 prevalence, no association between SV40 prevalence and asbestos-corrected male pleural cancer can be demonstrated.

  15. The impact of occurrence of exceptional solar events on mortality from diseases of the nervous system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podolska, Katerina

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this conference paper is to analyse relationships between strong changes of solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric physical parameters, and mortality by medical cause of death from diagnosis group Diseases of the nervous system by ICD-10 WHO. The aggregated daily number of deaths of 6 largest individual causes of death of group VI. Diseases of the nervous system on the occurrence of exceptional solar and geomagnetic events is investigated. Analysis is performed for the period of the solar cycles No. 23 and 24 (years 1994-2013) in the Czech Republic. The correlation between the intensity of mortality from diseases Multiple sclerosis, Epilepsy, Cerebral palsy, Parkinson disease, Secondary parkinsonism and Alzheimer disease and the solar, geomagnetic and ionospheric physical parameters is examined using stochastic method of graphical models of conditional dependences. We study the daily number of deaths separately for both sexes at the age groups under 39 and 40+. Differences are found for maximum solar activity and during the ascending and descending epoch of the solar cycles.

  16. Impact of prestroke selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment on stroke severity and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Janne Kaergaard; Larsson, Heidi; Johnsen, Søren Paaske; Andersen, Grethe

    2014-07-01

    Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) have been associated with an increased risk of bleeding but also a possible neuroprotective effect in stroke. We aimed to examine the implications of prestroke SSRI use in hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke. We conducted a registry-based propensity score-matched follow-up study among first-ever patients with hemorrhage and ischemic stroke in Denmark (2003-2012). Multiple conditional logistic regression was used to compute adjusted odds ratios of severe stroke and death within 30 days. Among 1252 hemorrhagic strokes (626 prestroke SSRI users and 626 propensity score-matched nonusers), prestroke SSRI use was associated with an increased risk of the strokes being severe (adjusted propensity score-matched odds ratios, 1.41; confidence interval, 1.08-1.84) and an increased risk of death within 30 days (adjusted propensity score-matched odds ratios, 1.60; confidence interval, 1.17-2.18). Among 8956 patients with ischemic stroke (4478 prestroke SSRI users and 4478 propensity score-matched nonusers), prestroke SSRI use was not associated with the risk of severe stroke or death within 30 days. Prestroke SSRI use is associated with increased stroke severity and mortality in patients with hemorrhagic stroke. Although prestroke depression in itself may increase stroke severity and mortality, this was not found in SSRI users with ischemic stroke. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Impact of Socioeconomic and Health System Factors on Infant Mortality Rate in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC: Evidence from 2004 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satar Rezaei

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: infant mortality rate is one of the main health indicators for assessing the health system’s performance over the world. We aim to examine the socioeconomic and health system factors affect infant mortality in OPEC from 2004 to 2013. Methods: was used to examine the effects of some of the key explanatory factors (total fertility rate per women, GDP per capita (current US$, public health expenditure as % of total health expenditure and female labor force participation rate on infant mortality in OPEC from 2004 to 2013.  These data were obtained from World Bank and World Health Organization data bank. Results: our results showed the total fertility rate had a positive and significant impact on infant mortality in the studied period. Also, there are negative significant associations between GDP per capita and public health expenditure with infant mortality. We did not observe any relationship between infant mortality and female labour force participation rate in the studied countries from 2004 to 2013. Conclusion: total fertility rate per women, GDP per capita (current US$, public health expenditure as % of total health expenditure were identified as the main factors affecting on infant mortality in OPEC over the ten years (2004-2013. This study enables health policy-makers to better understand the factors affecting on infant mortality and thereby take necessary steps in managing and decreasing the infant mortality rate in the studied countries.

  18. Mass mortality of macrobenthos in a biodiverse rocky beach- Impact of a minor oil spill

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vijapure, T.; Sukumaran, S.; Mulik, J.; Rao, N.M.

    aims to highlight the importance of early monitoring of impacted and reference locations for determining the magnitude of damage caused to the environment due to any kind of spill and in turn acquire baseline information for tracing future path...

  19. Impact on early and late mortality after blood transfusion in coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Antonio Alceu dos; Sousa, Alexandre Gonçalves; Thomé, Hugo Oliveira de Souza; Machado, Roberta Longo; Piotto, Raquel Ferrari

    2013-03-01

    To assess the 30-day and 1-year mortality associated to the red blood cell transfusion after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. This procedure has been questioned by the international medical community, but it is still widely used in cardiac surgery. Therefore, it is needed more evidence of this medical practice in our country. We retrospectively analyzed 3,004 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting surgery between June 2009 and July 2010. Patients were divided into two groups: non-transfused and transfused. The transfused group totaled 1,888 (63%) and non-transfused 1,116 (37%). There were 129 deaths in 30 days, with 108 (84%) in the transfused group and 21 (16%) in the non-transfused (Pconservation strategies should be encouraged to reduce blood products transfusions.

  20. Mass Mortality of Cassin's Auklets, Assessing the Impact of a Warming Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, J.

    2016-02-01

    In Fall/Winter 2014-15, more than 100,000 Cassin's Auklets, Ptychoramphus aleuticus, washed ashore on U.S. West Coast beaches. A small-bodied, zooplanktivorous bird, Cassin's nest in colonies scattered along the Northeast Pacific coastline, with a particular concentration in the Scott Islands, northwest of Vancouver Island, BC where 80% of the world's population ( 3.5M) breeds. Standardized, effort-controlled beach surveys conducted by >500 volunteers for three citizen science organizations (BeachCOMBERS, Beach Watch, COASST) at >225 sites from Cape Flattery, WA to Monterey Bay, CA were used to document the event and contrast it to regionally specific long-term average carcass-fall. Data are abundance of independently verified carcass identifications collected (bi)monthly at known locations and dates, providing an instantaneous index of "new" carcass encounter rate. Two pulses were evident: A small but significant anomaly (+2-3 carcasses/km) in November primarily in California and a much larger (+20-25 carcasses/km) more sustained anomaly in December-January along the Washington and northern Oregon coastline. Four non-exclusive hypotheses were examined: surplus production of young-of-the year (i.e. elevated post-breeding mortality), severity of fall/winter storms (i.e. elevated winterkill), shifts in food diversity (proxied as copepod regional diversity along the Newport Line), and habitat compression calculated as location and relative area of wintering habitat (assessed by GLS-tagged birds) with a monthly SST anomaly event can be explained by the extreme compression of cold water habitat in July-September 2014, trapping dispersing Scott Islands birds as the warm water anomaly expanded eastward, leaving open the question of whether this event was anomalous mortality and/or anomalously high beaching rates.

  1. The impact of economic recession on maternal and infant mortality: lessons from history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ensor, Tim; Cooper, Stephanie; Davidson, Lisa; Fitzmaurice, Ann; Graham, Wendy J

    2010-11-24

    The effect of the recent world recession on population health has featured heavily in recent international meetings. Maternal health is a particular concern given that many countries were already falling short of their MDG targets for 2015. We utilise 20th century time series data from 14 high and middle income countries to investigate associations between previous economic recession and boom periods on maternal and infant outcomes (1936 to 2005). A first difference logarithmic model is used to investigate the association between short run fluctuations in GDP per capita (individual incomes) and changes in health outcomes. Separate models are estimated for four separate time periods. The results suggest a modest but significant association between maternal and infant mortality and economic growth for early periods (1936 to 1965) but not more recent periods. Individual country data display markedly different patterns of response to economic changes. Japan and Canada were vulnerable to economic shocks in the post war period. In contrast, mortality rates in countries such as the UK and Italy and particularly the US appear little affected by economic fluctuations. The data presented suggest that recessions do have a negative association with maternal and infant outcomes particularly in earlier stages of a country's development although the effects vary widely across different systems. Almost all of the 20 least wealthy countries have suffered a reduction of 10% or more in GDP per capita in at least one of the last five decades. The challenge for today's policy makers is the design and implementation of mechanisms that protect vulnerable populations from the effects of fluctuating national income.

  2. Chapter 15: Impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality in the united states over the period 1975-2000-summary and limitations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Boer (Rob); S. Moolgavkar (Suresh); D.T. Levy (David)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: A consortium of six research groups estimated the impact on lung cancer mortality of changes in smoking behavior that began around the publication of the Surgeon General's report (SGR). This chapter presents the results of that effort. We quantified the cumulative impact of

  3. Urban-Hazard Risk Analysis: Mapping of Heat-Related Risks in the Elderly in Major Italian Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Objectives Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥65). Methods A long time-series (2001–2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using “Crichton’s Risk Triangle” hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). Results The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. Conclusions This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public

  4. Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takakura, Jun'ya; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Honda, Yasushi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2017-06-01

    The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0 °C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0 °C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5 °C goal and the 2.0 °C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change

  5. Impact of Comorbidities on Mortality in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Kreuter

    Full Text Available Comorbidities significantly influence the clinical course of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF. However, their prognostic impact is not fully understood. We therefore aimed to determine the impact of comorbidities, as individual and as whole, on survival in IPF.The database of a tertiary referral centre for interstitial lung diseases was reviewed for comorbidities, their treatments, their frequency and survival in IPF patients.272 patients were identified of which 12% had no, 58% 1-3 and 30% 4-7 comorbidities, mainly cardiovascular, pulmonary and oncologic comorbidities. Median survival according to the frequency of comorbidities differed significantly with 66 months for patients without comorbidities, 48 months when 1-3 comorbidities were reported and 35 months when 4-7 comorbidities were prevalent (p = 0.004. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses identified other cardiac diseases and lung cancer as significant predictors of death, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GERD and diastolic dysfunction had a significant positive impact on survival. A significant impact of comorbidities associated therapies on survival was not discovered. This included the use of proton pump inhibitors at baseline, which was not associated with a survival benefit (p = 0.718. We also established a predictive tool for highly prevalent comorbidities, termed IPF comorbidome which demonstrates a new relationship of IPF and comorbidities.Comorbidities are frequent in IPF patients. Some comorbidities, especially lung cancer, mainly influence survival in IPF, while others such as GERD may inherit a more favourable effect. Moreover, their cumulative incidence impacts survival.

  6. Prevalence and Impact of Admission Acute Traumatic Coagulopathy on Treatment Intensity, Resource Utilization, and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liras, Ioannis N; Caplan, Henry W; Stensballe, Jakob

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Acute coagulopathy of trauma in children are of potential importance to clinical outcome, but knowledge is limited and has only been investigated using conventional coagulation testing (CCT). The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence and impact of arrival coagulopathy, ...

  7. Childbirth attendance strategies and their impact on maternal mortality and morbidity in low-income settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pyone, Thidar; Sorensen, Bjarke Lund; Tellier, Siri

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To review quantitative evidence of the effect on maternal health of different childbirth attendance strategies in low-income settings. Design. Systematic review. Methods. Studies using quantitative methods, referring to the period 1987-2011, written in English and reporting the impact ...

  8. Impacts of sporulation temperature, exposure to compost matrix and temperature on survival of Bacillus cereus spores during livestock mortality composting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanford, K; Reuter, T; Gilroyed, B H; McAllister, T A

    2015-04-01

    To investigate impact of sporulation and compost temperatures on feasibility of composting for disposal of carcasses contaminated with Bacillus anthracis. Two strains of B. cereus, 805 and 1391, were sporulated at either 20 or 37°C (Sporulation temperature, ST) and 7 Log10 CFU g(-1) spores added to autoclaved manure in nylon bags (pore size 50 μm) or in sealed vials. Vials and nylon bags were embedded into compost in either a sawdust or manure matrix each containing 16 bovine mortalities (average weight 617 ± 33 kg), retrieved from compost at intervals over 217 days and survival of B. cereus spores assessed. A ST of 20°C decreased spore survival by 1·4 log10 CFU g(-1) (P Compost temperatures >55°C reduced spore survival (P compost temperatures were key factors influencing survival of B. cereus spores in mortality compost. Composting may be most appropriate for the disposal of carcasses infected with B. anthracis at ambient temperatures ≤20°C under thermophillic composting conditions (>55°C). © 2015 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  9. A Bayesian analysis of the impact of post-crash care on road mortality in Sub-Saharan African countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wonmongo Lacina Soro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing a disproportionate road tragedy compared to its motorization rate and road network density. Most of the road traffic deaths occur in the pre-hospital phase. Yet, more than half of the African countries do not possess formal pre-hospital care system. This study assesses the potential impact of post-crash care on road mortality in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries. A panel Bayesian normal linear regression with normally distributed non-informative priors is used to fit the data set covering the time period 2001–2010. The post-crash care system is proxied by the estimated share of seriously injured transported by ambulance, and three binary variables indicating the existence of emergency access telephone services and emergency training for doctors and nurses. The findings suggest a negative correlation between the road mortality rate and the estimated share of seriously injured transported by ambulance, the emergency access telephone services and the emergency training for doctors. A positive relation is unexpectedly observed for the emergency training for nurses. Other regressors such as the Gross Domestic Product per capita and populations in the age range 15–64 years are related to higher fatality rates while the length of the road network and life expectancy are linked to decreasing fatality rates.

  10. [Impact of immunization measures by the Family Health Program on infant mortality from preventable diseases in Olinda, Pernambuco State, Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, Tânia Maria Rocha; Alves, João Guilherme Bezerra; Tavares, Márcia Maia Ferreira

    2009-04-01

    This article analyzes the impact of the Family Health Program (FHP) on infant health in Olinda, Pernambuco State, Brazil, evaluating immunization and infant mortality from vaccine-preventable diseases. A time-series study was conducted with data from the principal health information systems, analyzing indicators before and after implementation of the FHP in 1995. The independent variable was year of birth, related to degree of population coverage by the FHP. Three periods were analyzed: 1990-1994 (prior), 1995-1996 (implementation phase: 0 to 30% coverage), and 1997-2002 (intervention: coverage of 38.6% to 54%). Trends in the indicators were analyzed by simple linear regression, testing significance with the t test. During the implementation period there was an increase in all the vaccination coverage rates (176% BCG, 223% polio, 52% DPT, 61% measures) and a decrease in infant mortality from preventable diseases (12.7 deaths/year), even without a decrease in absolute poverty in the municipality or an increase in either coverage by the public health care system or the sewage system. Improvement in the indicators demonstrates the effectiveness of FHP actions in the municipality.

  11. Intraguild predation between small pelagic fish in the Bay of Biscay: impact on anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus L.) egg mortality

    KAUST Repository

    Bachiller, Eneko

    2015-05-12

    Small pelagic fish can play an important role in various ecosystems linking lower and upper trophic levels. Among the factor behind the observed inter-annual variations in small pelagic fish abundance, intra- and inter-specific trophic interactions could have a strong impact on the recruitment variability (e.g. anchovy). Egg cannibalism observed in anchovies has been postulated to be a mechanism that determines the upper limit of the population density and self-regulates the population abundance of the species. On the other hand, predation by other guild species is commonly considered as a regulation mechanism between competing species. This study provides empirical evidence of anchovy cannibalism and predation of the main small pelagic fish species on anchovy eggs and estimates the effect of intraguild predation on the anchovy egg mortality rate. Results show that, depending on the year (2008–2009), up to 33 % of the total anchovy egg mortality was the result of sardine predation and up to 4 % was the result of egg cannibalism together with predation by Atlantic and Atlantic Chub mackerel and sprat. Results also indicate that in the Bay of Biscay, fluctuations in the survival index of the early life stages of anchovy are likely to be attributable at least in part to egg cannibalism and especially to a high sardine predation on anchovy eggs. © 2015 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  12. The mental health impact of AIDS-related mortality in South Africa: a national study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myer, L; Seedat, S; Stein, D J; Moomal, H; Williams, D R

    2011-01-01

    Background Few data exist on how the HIV/AIDS epidemic may influence population mental health. The associations were examined between knowing someone who died of HIV/AIDS and common mental disorders among South African adults. Methods Between 2002 and 2004, a nationally representative sample of 4351 adults were interviewed about personally knowing someone who died of HIV/AIDS, and the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to generate psychiatric diagnoses for depression, anxiety and substance abuse disorders during the preceding 12 months based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, 4th edition (DSM-IV). Results Overall, 42.2% of the sample knew someone who died of HIV/AIDS, and 16.5% met the criteria for at least one DSM-IV diagnosis. Individuals who knew someone who died of HIV/AIDS were significantly more likely to have any DSM-IV defined disorder, including any depressive, anxiety or substance-related disorder (pdrug dependence or abuse. Based on these results, it is estimated that up to 15% of 12-month DSM-IV disorders in the South African adult population may be related to knowing someone who died of HIV/AIDS. Conclusion These novel data suggest that AIDS-related mortality may contribute substantially to the burden of mental disorders in settings of high HIV prevalence. While this finding requires further investigation, these data suggest the need to strengthen mental health services in communities where HIV/AIDS is prevalent. PMID:19074926

  13. Impact of gender on the risk of AIDS-defining illnesses and mortality in Danish HIV-1-infected patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorsteinsson, Kristina; Ladelund, Steen; Jensen-Fangel, Søren

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background: Gender differences in the risk of AIDS-defining illness (ADI) and mortality have been reported in the HIV-1-infected (HIV-positive) population, with conflicting findings. We aimed to assess the impact of gender on the risk of ADI and death in HIV-positive patients infected...... sexually. Methods: This was a population-based, nationwide cohort study of incident Danish HIV-positive individuals infected by sexual contact. Outcomes were progression to AIDS and death. We used Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression analyses to calculate the risk of progression to AIDS...... diagnosis MSM had a lower prevalence of AIDS compared to MSW. Women and MSW presented more often with tuberculosis and less often with AIDS-defining cancers compared to MSM. In the adjusted analyses we observed no differences in progression to AIDS. In the adjusted analyses of risk of death, there were...

  14. Macrozooplankton predation impact on anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) eggs mortality at the Bay of Biscay shelf break spawning centre

    KAUST Repository

    Albaina, Aitor

    2014-11-23

    A real-time PCR based method involving a species-specific probe was applied to detect Engraulis encrasicolus eggs predation by the macrozooplankton community during the 2011 spawning season. Three locations along the shelf break presenting contrasting but high prey densities were sampled. A total of 840 individuals from 38 taxa of potential macrozooplankton predators were assayed for E. encrasicolus DNA presence and 27 presented at least one positive signal. Carnivorous copepods were responsible for the most predation events (66%) followed by euphausiids (16%), chaetognaths (5%), and myctophid fish (4%). Macrozooplankton predation on anchovy eggs followed a type-I functional response with daily mortalities <4% of available prey abundance suggesting a negligible impact on the species recruitment at the shelf break spawning centre. © 2014 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 2014. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Impact of Moderate to Severe Renal Impairment on Mortality and Appropriate Shocks in Patients with Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venkata M. Alla

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Due to underrepresentation of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD in large Implantable-Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD clinical trials, the impact of ICD remains uncertain in this population. Methods. Consecutive patients who received ICD at Creighton university medical center between years 2000–2004 were included in a retrospective cohort after excluding those on maintenance dialysis. Based on baseline Glomerular filtration rate (GFR, patients were classified as severe CKD: GFR < 30 mL/min; moderate CKD: GFR: 30–59 mL/min; and mild or no CKD: GFR ≥ 60 mL/min. The impact of GFR on appropriate shocks and survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier method and Generalized Linear Models (GLM with log-link function. Results. There were 509 patients with a mean follow-up of 3.0 + 1.3 years. Mortality risk was inversely proportional to the estimated GFR: 2 fold higher risk with GFR between 30–59 mL/min and 5 fold higher risk with GFR < 30 mL/min. One hundred and seventy-seven patients received appropriate shock(s; appropriate shock-free survival was lower in patients with severe CKD (GFR < 30 compared to mild or no CKD group (2.8 versus 4.2 yrs. Conclusion. Even moderate renal dysfunction increases all cause mortality in CKD patients with ICD. Severe but not moderate CKD is an independent predictor for time to first appropriate shock.

  16. Geographical differences on the mortality impact of heat waves in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunyer Jordi

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change is potentially the biggest global health threat in the 21st century. Deaths related with heat waves and spread of infectious diseases will be part of the menace though the major impact will be caused by malnutrition, diarrhea and extreme climate events. Consequently, loss of healthy life years as a result of global climate change is predicted to be 500 times greater in poor African populations than in European populations. However, the increase of more than 2°C of average temperature will result in a negative health impact in all regions, the potential benefits of a warmer temperature being negatively compensated, heat waves being one of the largest climate change threats in the developed world.

  17. Impact of Malaria Control on Mortality and Anemia among Tanzanian Children Less than Five Years of Age, 1999-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smithson

    Full Text Available Mainland Tanzania scaled up multiple malaria control interventions between 1999 and 2010. We evaluated whether, and to what extent, reductions in all-cause under-five child mortality (U5CM tracked with malaria control intensification during this period.Four nationally representative household surveys permitted trend analysis for malaria intervention coverage, severe anemia (hemoglobin <8 g/dL prevalence (SAP among children 6-59 months, and U5CM rates stratified by background characteristics, age, and malaria endemicity. Prevalence of contextual factors (e.g., vaccination, nutrition likely to influence U5CM were also assessed. Population attributable risk percentage (PAR% estimates for malaria interventions and contextual factors that changed over time were used to estimate magnitude of impact on U5CM.Household ownership of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs rose from near zero in 1999 to 64% (95% CI, 61.7-65.2 in 2010. Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy reached 26% (95% CI, 23.6-28.0 by 2010. Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine replaced chloroquine in 2002 and artemisinin-based combination therapy was introduced in 2007. SAP among children 6-59 months declined 50% between 2005 (11.1%; 95% CI, 10.0-12.3% and 2010 (5.5%; 95% CI, 4.7-6.4% and U5CM declined by 45% between baseline (1995-9 and endpoint (2005-9, from 148 to 81 deaths/1000 live births, respectively. Mortality declined 55% among children 1-23 months of age in higher malaria endemicity areas. A large reduction in U5CM was attributable to ITNs (PAR% = 11 with other malaria interventions adding further gains. Multiple contextual factors also contributed to survival gains.Marked declines in U5CM occurred in Tanzania between 1999 and 2010 with high impact from ITNs and ACTs. High-risk children (1-24 months of age in high malaria endemicity experienced the greatest declines in mortality and SAP. Malaria control should remain a policy priority to sustain and further accelerate

  18. Determination of susceptibility to heat-related disorders and prevention methods among agriculture workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-01-01

    Conclusion: According to the results, agriculture workers based on their age distribution, education, body mass index, health knowledge, drug use and incidence of chronic diseases, are very vulnerable to heat-related disorders. Therefore, training on recognizing the early signs and doing control measures as essential element in heat stress prevention should be seriously considered.

  19. The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Ji-Young; Gouveia, Nelson; Bravo, Mercedes A.; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Bell, Michelle L.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1 % (95 % confidence interval 4.7, 7.6 %) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6 % (6.2, 11.1 %) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.

  20. The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Ji-Young; Gouveia, Nelson; Bravo, Mercedes A; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Bell, Michelle L

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1% (95% confidence interval 4.7, 7.6%) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6% (6.2, 11.1%) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.

  1. From intervention to impact: modelling the potential mortality impact achievable by different long-lasting, insecticide-treated net delivery strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okell Lucy C

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The current target of universal access to long-lasting, insecticide-treated nets (LLIN is 80% coverage to reduce malaria deaths by 75% by 2015. So far, campaigns have been the main channel for large-scale delivery of LLINs, however the World Health Organization has recommended that equal priority should be given to delivery via routine antenatal care (ANC and immunization systems (EPI to target pregnant women and children from birth. These various channels of LLIN delivery are targeted to children of different ages. Since risk of mortality varies with child age and LLIN effectiveness declines with net age, it was hypothesized that the age at which a child receives a new LLIN, and therefore the delivery channel, is important in optimizing the health impact of a net. Methods A simple dynamic mathematical model was developed of delivery and impact of LLINs among children under five years of age and their household members, incorporating data on age-specific malaria death rates, net use by household structure, and net efficacy over time. Results The presented analysis finds that supplementing a universal mass campaign with extra ANC delivery would achieve a 1.4 times higher mortality reduction than campaign delivery alone, reflecting that children born in the years between campaigns would otherwise have access to old nets or no nets at an age of high risk. The relative advantage of supplementary ANC delivery is still present though smaller if malaria transmission levels are lower or if there is a strong mass effect achieved by mass campaigns. Conclusion These results indicate that LLIN delivery policies must take into account the age of greatest malaria risk. Emphasis should be placed on supporting routine delivery of LLINs to young children as well as campaigns.

  2. Trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Poland: is there an impact of the introduction of the organised screening?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowakowski, Andrzej; Wojciechowska, Urszula; Wieszczy, Paulina; Cybulski, Marek; Kamiński, Michał F; Didkowska, Joanna

    2017-06-01

    Aside from existing opportunistic screening, an organised screening programme (OSP) for cervical cancer (CC) was implemented in 2006/2007 in Poland. We applied joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model to look for the impact of the OSP on CC incidence/mortality trends. Decline of age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) in the screening-age group (25-59 years) accelerated from -2.2% (95% CI -2.7 to -1.7%) between 1993 and 2008 to -6.1% (95% CI -7.7 to -4.4%) annually after 2008. In women aged 60+ years, ASIRs declined from 1986 until 2005 [annual percent change (APC) = -2.6%, 95% CI -2.9 to -2.4%] and stabilised thereafter. Decline of age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) in the screening-age group accelerated from -1.3% (95% CI -1.5 to -1.1%) between 1980 and 2005 to -4.7% (95% CI -5.6 to -3.8%) annually after 2005. In women aged 60+ ASMR declined between 1991 and 2004 (APC = -2.9%, 95% CI -3.5 to -2.3%) and stabilised thereafter. Relative risks of CC diagnosis and death were 0.63 (95% CI 0.62-0.65) and 0.61 (95% CI 0.59-0.63), respectively, for the most recent period compared to the reference around 1982. Implementation of the OSP possibly accelerated downward trends in the burden of CC in Polish women under the age of 60, but recent stabilisation of trends in older women requires actions.

  3. Projected impacts of federal tax policy proposals on mortality burden in the United States: A microsimulation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Daniel

    2018-06-01

    The public health consequences of federal income tax policies that influence income inequality are not well understood. I aimed to project the impacts on mortality of modifying federal income tax structures based on proposals by two recent United States (U.S.) Presidential candidates: Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders. I performed a microsimulation analysis using the latest U.S. Internal Revenue Service public-use tax file with state identifiers (2008 tax year), containing nationally-representative data from 139,651 tax returns. I considered five tax plan scenarios: 1) actual 2008 tax structures; proposals in 2016 by then-candidates 2) Trump and 3) Sanders; 4) a modified Sanders plan with higher top tax rates (75%); and 5) a modified Sanders plan with higher top rates plus revenue redistribution to lower-income households (Trump and Sanders plans, respectively. Under the modified Sanders plan including higher top rates, 68,919 (95% CI: 25,221-113,561) fewer deaths/year are projected. Under the modified Sanders plan with redistribution, 333,504 (95% CI: 192,897-473,787) fewer deaths/year are expected. Policies that both raise federal income tax rates and redistribute tax revenue could confer large reductions in the total number of annual deaths among Americans. In this era of high income inequality and growing public support to address the rich-poor gap, policymakers should consider joint federal tax and redistributive policies as levers to reduce the burden of mortality in the United States. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Mortality in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira Otto, Marcia C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Fahimi, Saman; Singh, Gitanjali; Danaei, Goodarz; Sichieri, Rosely; Monteiro, Carlos A; Louzada, Maria L. C.; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2016-01-01

    Background Trends in food availability and metabolic risk factors in Brazil suggest a shift toward unhealthy dietary patterns and increased cardiometabolic disease risk, yet little is known about the impact of dietary and metabolic risk factors on cardiometabolic mortality in Brazil. Methods Based on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we used comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors on mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in Brazil in 2010. Information on national diets and metabolic risks were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey, the Food and Agriculture Organization database, and large observational studies including Brazilian adults. Relative risks for each risk factor were obtained from meta-analyses of randomized trials or prospective cohort studies; and disease-specific mortality from the GBD 2010 database. We quantified uncertainty using probabilistic simulation analyses, incorporating uncertainty in dietary and metabolic data and relative risks by age and sex. Robustness of findings was evaluated by sensitivity to varying feasible optimal levels of each risk factor. Results In 2010, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and suboptimal diet were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths in Brazil, responsible for 214,263 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 195,073 to 233,936) and 202,949 deaths (95% UI: 194,322 to 211,747), respectively. Among individual dietary factors, low intakes of fruits and whole grains and high intakes of sodium were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths. For premature cardiometabolic deaths (before age 70 years, representing 40% of cardiometabolic deaths), the leading risk factors were suboptimal diet (104,169 deaths; 95% UI: 99,964 to 108,002), high SBP (98,923 deaths; 95%UI: 92,912 to 104,609) and high body-mass index (BMI) (42,643 deaths; 95%UI: 40,161 to 45,111). Conclusion suboptimal diet, high SBP, and high

  5. Rivalry, solidarity, and longevity among siblings: A life course approach to the impact of sibship composition and birth order on later life mortality risk, Antwerp (1846-1920

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robyn Donrovich

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Family composition and household dynamics, both in early and in later life, influence individual health and longevity. Both positive and negative effects can be expected in terms of sibling size and composition. On one hand, siblings compete with each other, which may lead to resource dilution and increased adult mortality risks. On the other hand, siblings protect and care for each other, which may have a positive impact on longevity. Objective: To investigate the way in which sibling composition (with respect to sibship size, sex, and birth order in the family of orientation and the proximity of siblings in later life relates to adult mortality risks at ages 50+. Methods: Life courses of 258 men and 275 women from the Antwerp COR*-database were 'reconstructed' and analyzed by way of event history analysis using Gompertz shared frailty models. Results: Being higher in birth order related to significantly higher mortality risk after age 50 for men. Having older brothers, particularly those present in later life, was associated with very high excess mortality risk for both sexes, though men were more strongly disadvantaged. Having (more younger sisters present at RP (research person age 50 was related to significantly lower relative mortality risk for women. Conclusions: Our findings highlight the complex relationships between sibling and gender dynamics and mortality risk in later life. Evidence of a lasting impact of sibling competition on mortality risk over age 50 is found; and competition is only replaced by solidarity in critical times (e.g., widowhood, wherein older sibling presence dissimilarly impacts different social groups.

  6. A spatial model to quantify the mortality impact of service delivery in Sub-Saharan Africa: an ecological design utilizing data from South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartorius, Kurt; Sartorius, Benn K D

    2013-02-20

    Sub Saharan Africa is confronted with a wide range of interlinked health and economic problems that include high levels of mortality and poor service delivery. The objective of the paper is to develop a spatial model for Sub-Saharan Africa that can quantify the mortality impact of (poor) service delivery at sub-district level in order to integrate related health and local level policy interventions. In this regard, an expanded composite service delivery index was developed, and the data were analysed using a Bayesian Poisson spatial model. The results indicate significant differences in the risk of mortality and poor service delivery at sub-district level. In particular, the results indicate clusters of high mortality and poor service delivery in two of the bigger, poorer provinces with large rural communities. Conversely, two of the wealthier provinces have lower levels of mortality and higher levels of service delivery, but income inequality is more widespread. The bivariate and multivariate models, moreover, reflect significant positive linkages (p service delivery after adjusting for HIV/AIDS, income inequality, population density and the protective influence of metropolitan areas. Finally, the hypothesized provision of a basket of services reduced the mortality rate in South Africa's 248 sub-districts by an average of 5.3 (0.3-15.4) deaths per 1000. The results indicate that the model can accurately plot mortality and service delivery "hotspots' at sub-district level, as well as explain their associations and causality. A mortality reduction index shows that mortality in the highest risk sub-districts can be reduced by as much as 15.4 deaths per 1000 by providing a range of basic services. The ability to use the model in a wider SSA context and elsewhere is also feasible given the innovative use of available databases. Finally, the paper illustrates the importance of developing policy in SSA that can simultaneously solve both economic and health problems.

  7. The long-term mortality impact of combined job strain and family circumstances: A life course analysis of working American mothers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbath, Erika L; Mejía-Guevara, Iván; Noelke, Clemens; Berkman, Lisa F

    2015-12-01

    Work stress and family composition have been separately linked with later-life mortality among working women, but it is not known how combinations of these exposures impact mortality, particularly when exposure is assessed cumulatively over the life course. We tested whether, among US women, lifelong work stress and lifelong family circumstances would jointly predict mortality risk. We studied formerly working mothers in the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) born 1924-1957 (n = 7352). We used sequence analysis to determine five prototypical trajectories of marriage and parenthood in our sample. Using detailed information on occupation and industry of each woman's longest-held job, we assigned each respondent a score for job control and job demands. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates by combined job demands, job control, and family status, then modeled hazard ratios for death based on family constellation, job control tertiles, and their combination. Married women who had children later in life had the lowest mortality risks (93/1000). The highest-risk family clusters were characterized by spells of single motherhood (132/1000). Generally, we observed linear relationships between job control and mortality hazard within each family trajectory. But while mortality risk was high for all long-term single mothers, we did not observe a job control-mortality gradient in this group. The highest-mortality subgroup was previously married women who became single mothers later in life and had low job control (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.38,2.63). Studies of associations between psychosocial work characteristics and health might consider heterogeneity of effects by family circumstances. Worksite interventions simultaneously considering both work and family characteristics may be most effective in reducing health risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Limited impacts of truck-based ultra-low-volume applications of mosquito adulticides on mortality in honey bees (Apis mellifera).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinkevich, F D; Margotta, J W; Pokhrel, V; Walker, T W; Vaeth, R H; Hoffman, W C; Fritz, B K; Danka, R G; Rinderer, T E; Aldridge, R L; Linthicum, K J; Ottea, J A; Healy, K B

    2017-12-01

    Adulticides applied against mosquitoes can reduce vector populations during times of high arbovirus transmission. However, impacts of these insecticides on pollinators and other non-target organisms are of concern to mosquito control professionals, beekeepers and others. We evaluated mortality of Culex quinquefasciatus and Apis mellifera when caged insects were exposed to low and high label rates of four common adulticides (Aqua-Pursuit™ [permethrin], Duet® [prallethrin + sumithrin], Fyfanon® [malathion] and Scourge® [resmethrin]) at six distances up to 91.4 m from a truck-mounted ultra-low-volume sprayer. Honey bee mortality was both absolutely low (61 m had limited impacts on honey bee mortality while providing effective mosquito control.

  9. Impact of unemployment variations on suicide mortality in Western European countries (2000-2010).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laanani, Moussa; Ghosn, Walid; Jougla, Eric; Rey, Grégoire

    2015-02-01

    A scientific debate is currently taking place on whether the 2008 economic crisis caused an increase in suicide rates. Our main objective was to assess the impact of unemployment rate on suicide rate in Western European countries between 2000 and 2010. We then tried to estimate the excess number of suicides attributable to the increase of unemployment during the 2008-2010 economic crisis. The yearly suicide rates were modelled using a quasi-Poisson model, controlling for sex, age, country and a linear time trend. For each country, the unemployment-suicide association was assessed, and the excess number of suicides attributable to the increase of unemployment was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed, notably in order to evaluate whether the unemployment-suicide association found was biased by a confounding context effect ('crisis effect'). A significant 0.3% overall increase in suicide rate for a 10% increase in unemployment rate (95% CI 0.1% to 0.5%) was highlighted. This association was significant in three countries: 0.7% (95% CI 0.0% to 1.4%) in the Netherlands, 1.0% (95% CI 0.2% to 1.8%) in the UK and 1.9% (95% CI 0.8% to 2.9%) in France, with a significant excess number of suicides attributable to unemployment variations between 2008 and 2010 (respectively 57, 456 and 564). The association was modified inconsistently when adding a 'crisis effect' into the model. Unemployment and suicide rates are globally statistically associated in the investigated countries. However, this association is weak, and its amplitude and sensitivity to the 'crisis effect' vary across countries. This inconsistency provides arguments against its causal interpretation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  10. Addressing the source contribution of PM2.5 on mortality: an evaluation study of its impacts on excess mortality in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lin; Zeng, Qiang; Dong, Wentan; Guo, Qun; Wu, Ziting; Pan, Xiaochuan; Li, Guoxing; Liu, Yang

    2017-10-01

    We estimated PM2.5 concentrations using satellite data and population mortality values for cause-specific diseases and employed the integrated exposure-response model to obtain the associations between exposure and response. PM2.5 source apportionment data were then used to evaluate the excess mortality attributable to PM2.5 from different emission sources. In 2013, 1.07 million excess deaths were attributed to PM2.5 exposure in China. The potentially avoidable excess deaths would be 279 000, 459 000, 731 000 and 898 000 if the PM2.5 concentrations were reduced to meet WHO interim target (IT)-1 (35 μg m-3, also the Chinese standard), IT-2 (25 μg m-3), IT-3 (15 μg m-3) and the air quality guidelines (10 μg m-3), respectively, compared with concentrations experienced in 2013. There were 249 000 (95% CI: 115-337), 228 000 (95% CI: 105-309), 203 000 (95% CI: 94-274), 197 000 (95% CI: 91-266), and 193 000 (95% CI: 88-262) excess deaths attributed to PM2.5 from coal burning, vehicle emissions, industry-related emissions, dust and other sources in 2013, respectively. Coal burning was the main source of atmospheric PM2.5; it contributed the most to excess mortalities and the health effects were likely to have been conservatively estimated. Considerable health benefits could be achieved if more stringent ambient PM2.5 standards were achieved in China.

  11. Termination of pregnancy among very preterm births and its impact on very preterm mortality : results from ten European population-based cohorts in the MOSAIC study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papiernik, E.; Zeitlin, J.; Delmas, D.; Draper, E. S.; Gadzinowski, J.; Kuenzel, W.; Cuttini, M.; Di Lallo, D.; Weber, T.; Kollee, L.; Bekaert, A.; Breart, G.

    Objective To study the impact of terminations of pregnancy (TOP) on very preterm mortality in Europe. Design European prospective population-based cohort study. Setting Ten regions from nine European countries participating in the MOSAIC (Models of OrganiSing Access to Intensive Care for very

  12. Impact of persistence and non-persistence in leisure time physical activity on coronary heart disease and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schnohr, Peter; O'Keefe, James H.; Lange, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of persistence and non-persistence in leisure time physical activity on coronary heart disease and all-cause mortality. Methods and results: In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, we prospectively followed 12,314 healthy subjects for 33 years...

  13. The impact of HIV-1 co-infection on long-term mortality in patients with hepatitis C: a population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Omland, L H; Jepsen, P; Skinhøj, P

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of HIV co-infection on mortality in patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). METHODS: From a nationwide Danish database of HCV-infected patients, we identified individuals diagnosed with HCV subsequent to an HIV diagnosis. For each co-infected patient...

  14. Trends in the mortality effects of hot spells in central Europe: adaptation to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kysely, J.; Plavcova, E.

    2013-12-01

    Europe has recently been affected by several long-lasting and severe heat waves, particularly in July-August 2003 (western Europe), June-July 2006 (central Europe), July 2007 (southeastern Europe) and July 2010 (western Russia). The heat waves influenced many sectors of human activities, with enormous socio-economic and environmental impacts. With estimated death tolls exceeding 50,000, the 2003 and 2010 heat waves were the worst natural disasters in Europe over the last 50 years, yielding an example of how seriously may also high-income societies be affected by climate change. The present study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (around 10 million inhabitants, central Europe). Declining trends in the mortality impacts since 1986 are found, in spite of rising temperature trends. The findings remain unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account, and they are similar for all-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability in the examined population (Kyselý and Plavcová, 2012). The results are also consistent with those reported for other developed regions of the world (the US, western Europe, Australia) and suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that affect vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address

  15. Why is the gender gap in life expectancy decreasing? The impact of age- and cause-specific mortality in Sweden 1997-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundberg, Louise; Agahi, Neda; Fritzell, Johan; Fors, Stefan

    2018-04-13

    To enhance the understanding of the current increase in life expectancy and decreasing gender gap in life expectancy. We obtained data on underlying cause of death from the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden for 1997 and 2014 and used Arriaga's method to decompose life expectancy by age group and 24 causes of death. Decreased mortality from ischemic heart disease had the largest impact on the increased life expectancy of both men and women and on the decreased gender gap in life expectancy. Increased mortality from Alzheimer's disease negatively influenced overall life expectancy, but because of higher female mortality, it also served to decrease the gender gap in life expectancy. The impact of other causes of death, particularly smoking-related causes, decreased in men but increased in women, also reducing the gap in life expectancy. This study shows that a focus on overall changes in life expectancies may hide important differences in age- and cause-specific mortality. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing modifiable lifestyle factors to reduce avoidable mortality.

  16. FEMALE FARMWORKERS’ PERCEPTIONS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS AND PREGNANCY HEALTH

    OpenAIRE

    Flocks, Joan; Mac, Valerie Vi Thien; Runkle, Jennifer; Tovar-Aguilar, Jose Antonio; Economos, Jeannie; McCauley, Linda A.

    2013-01-01

    While agricultural workers have elevated risks of heat-related illnesses (HRI), pregnant farmworkers exposed to extreme heat face additional health risk, including poor pregnancy health and birth outcomes. Qualitative data from five focus groups with 35 female Hispanic and Haitian nursery and fernery workers provide details about the women’s perceptions of HRI and pregnancy. Participants believe that heat exposure can adversely affect general, pregnancy, and fetal health, yet feel they lack c...

  17. Real-time appraisal of the spatially distributed heat related health risk and energy demand of cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia; Kiranoudis, Chris T.; Sismanidis, Panagiotis

    2016-08-01

    The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is an adverse environmental effect of urbanization that increases the energy demand of cities, impacts the human health, and intensifies and prolongs heatwave events. To facilitate the study of UHIs the Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens (IAASARS/NOA) has developed an operational real-time system that exploits remote sensing image data from Meteosat Second Generation - Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (MSG-SEVIRI) and generates high spatiotemporal land surface temperature (LST) and 2 m air temperature (TA) time series. These datasets form the basis for the generation of higher value products and services related to energy demand and heat-related health issues. These products are the heatwave hazard (HZ); the HUMIDEX (i.e. an index that describes the temperature felt by an individual exposed to heat and humidity); and the cooling degrees (CD; i.e. a measure that reflects the energy needed to cool a building). The spatiotemporal characteristics of HZ, HUMIDEX and CD are unique (1 km/5 min) and enable the appraisal of the spatially distributed heat related health risk and energy demand of cities. In this paper, the real time generation of the high spatiotemporal HZ, HUMIDEX and CD products is discussed. In addition, a case study corresponding to Athens' September 2015 heatwave is presented so as to demonstrate their capabilities. The overall aim of the system is to provide high quality data to several different end users, such as health responders, and energy suppliers. The urban thermal monitoring web service is available at http://snf-652558.vm.okeanos.grnet.gr/treasure/portal/info.html.

  18. Clinical impact of antimicrobial resistance in European hospitals: excess mortality and length of hospital stay related to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    de Kraker, Marlieke E A

    2011-04-01

    Antimicrobial resistance is threatening the successful management of nosocomial infections worldwide. Despite the therapeutic limitations imposed by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), its clinical impact is still debated. The objective of this study was to estimate the excess mortality and length of hospital stay (LOS) associated with MRSA bloodstream infections (BSI) in European hospitals. Between July 2007 and June 2008, a multicenter, prospective, parallel matched-cohort study was carried out in 13 tertiary care hospitals in as many European countries. Cohort I consisted of patients with MRSA BSI and cohort II of patients with methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) BSI. The patients in both cohorts were matched for LOS prior to the onset of BSI with patients free of the respective BSI. Cohort I consisted of 248 MRSA patients and 453 controls and cohort II of 618 MSSA patients and 1,170 controls. Compared to the controls, MRSA patients had higher 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 4.4) and higher hospital mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 3.5). Their excess LOS was 9.2 days. MSSA patients also had higher 30-day (aOR = 2.4) and hospital (aHR = 3.1) mortality and an excess LOS of 8.6 days. When the outcomes from the two cohorts were compared, an effect attributable to methicillin resistance was found for 30-day mortality (OR = 1.8; P = 0.04), but not for hospital mortality (HR = 1.1; P = 0.63) or LOS (difference = 0.6 days; P = 0.96). Irrespective of methicillin susceptibility, S. aureus BSI has a significant impact on morbidity and mortality. In addition, MRSA BSI leads to a fatal outcome more frequently than MSSA BSI. Infection control efforts in hospitals should aim to contain infections caused by both resistant and susceptible S. aureus.

  19. The impact of production of extended-spectrum β-lactamases on the 28-day mortality rate of patients with Proteus mirabilis bacteremia in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jin Young; Ann, Hea Won; Jeon, Yongduk; Ahn, Mi Young; Oh, Dong Hyun; Kim, Yong Chan; Kim, Eun Jin; Song, Je Eun; Jung, In Young; Kim, Moo Hyun; Jeong, Wooyoung; Ku, Nam Su; Jeong, Su Jin; Choi, Jun Yong; Yong, Dongeun; Song, Young Goo; Kim, June Myung

    2017-05-03

    The incidence of Proteus mirabilis antimicrobial resistance, especially that mediated by extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs), has increased. We investigated the impact of ESBL production on the mortality of patients with P. mirabilis bacteremia in Korea. Patients diagnosed with P. mirabilis bacteremia between November 2005 and December 2013 at a 2000-bed tertiary care center in South Korea were included in this study. Phenotypic and molecular analyses were performed to assess ESBL expression. Characteristics and treatment outcomes were investigated among ESBL-producing and non-ESBL-producing P. mirabilis bacteremia groups. A multivariate analysis of 28-day mortality rates was performed to evaluate the independent impact of ESBLs. Among 62 P. mirabilis isolates from 62 patients, 14 expressed ESBLs (CTX-M, 2; TEM, 5; both, 6; other, 1), and the 28-day mortality rate of the 62 patients was 17.74%. No clinical factor was significantly associated with ESBL production. The 28-day mortality rate in the ESBL-producing group was significantly higher than that in the non-ESBL-producing group (50% vs. 8.3%, p = 0.001). A multivariate analysis showed that ESBL production (odds ratio [OR], 11.53, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.11-63.05, p = 0.005) was independently associated with the 28-day mortality rate in patients with P. mirabilis bacteremia. ESBL production is significantly associated with mortality in patients with bacteremia caused by P. mirabilis. Rapid detection of ESBL expression and prompt appropriate antimicrobial therapy are required to reduce mortality caused by P. mirabilis bacteremia.

  20. Community Trial on Heat Related-Illness Prevention Behaviors and Knowledge for the Elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noriko Takahashi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to explore whether broadcasting heat health warnings (HHWs, to every household and whether the additional home delivery of bottled water labeled with messages will be effective in improving the behaviors and knowledge of elderly people to prevent heat-related illness. A community trial on heat-related-illness-prevention behaviors and knowledge for people aged between 65 and 84 years was conducted in Nagasaki, Japan. Five hundred eight subjects were selected randomly from three groups: heat health warning (HHW, HHW and water delivery (HHW+W, and control groups. Baseline and follow-up questionnaires were conducted in June and September 2012, respectively. Of the 1524 selected subjects, the 1072 that completed both questionnaires were analyzed. The HHW+W group showed improvements in nighttime AC use (p = 0.047, water intake (p = 0.003, cooling body (p = 0.002 and reduced activities in heat (p = 0.047 compared with the control, while the HHW group improved hat or parasol use (p = 0.008. An additional effect of household water delivery was observed in water intake (p = 0.067 and cooling body (p = 0.095 behaviors. HHW and household bottled water delivery improved heat-related-illness-prevention behaviors. The results indicate that home water delivery in addition to a HHW may be needed to raise awareness of the elderly.

  1. Knowledge and awareness of heat-related morbidity among adult recreational endurance athletes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shendell, Derek G.; Alexander, Melannie S.; Lorentzson, Lauren; McCarty, Frances A.

    2010-07-01

    Adults have been increasingly motivated to compete in recreational endurance sports events. Amateurs may lack a complete understanding of recommended strategies for handling heat and humidity, making heat-related illnesses increasingly possible. This is compounded by global climate change and increasing average surface and air temperatures, especially in urban areas of industrialized nations in Europe and North America that have hosted most events to date. We conducted an on-line, secure survey at the 2nd Annual ING Georgia Marathon and Half-Marathon in Atlanta, Georgia, in 2008. We included previously validated questions on participant socio-demographics, training locations, and knowledge and awareness of heat-related illnesses. Participants were aware of heat illnesses, and of heat stroke as a serious form of heat stress. However, the majority, across age and gender, did not understand the potential severity of heat stroke. Furthermore, 1-in-5 participants did not understand the concept of heat stress as a form of heat-related illness, and how heat stress may result from buildup of muscle-generated heat in the body. Adult recreational endurance athletes are another susceptible, vulnerable population sub-group for applied research and public health educational interventions, especially in urban areas of industrialized nations in Europe and North America.

  2. Infant Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... After hours (404) 639-2888 Contact Media Infant Mortality Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This ... differences in rates among population groups. About Infant Mortality Infant mortality is the death of an infant ...

  3. Impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a high plateau area in southwest China: A time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Zan; Guo, Pi; Xie, Fang; Chu, Huifang; Li, Kun; Pu, Jingbo; Pang, Shaojie; Dong, Hongli; Liu, Yahui; Pi, Fuhua; Zhang, Qingying

    2015-09-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator that reflects weather stability and is associated with global climate change and urbanization. Previous studies have explored the effect of DTR on human health in coastal cities with small daily temperature variations, but we have little evidence for high plateau regions where large DTRs usually occur. Using daily mortality data (2007-2013), we conducted a time-series analysis to assess the effect of DTR on daily mortality in Yuxi, a high plateau city in southwest China. Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate DTR effects on daily mortality, controlling for daily mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, day of the week, and seasonal and long-term trends. The cumulative effects of DTR were J-shaped curves for non-accidental, cardiorespiratory and cardiovascular mortality, with a U-shaped curve for respiratory mortality. Risk assessments showed strong monotonic increases in mortality starting at a DTR of approximately 16 °C. The relative risk of non-accidental morality with extreme high DTR at lag 0 and 0-21 days was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.11) and 1.33 (0.94-1.89), respectively. The risk of mortality with extreme high DTR was greater for males and age <75 years than females and age ≥75 years. The effect of DTR on mortality was non-linear, with high DTR associated with increased mortality. A DTR of 16 °C may be a cut-off point for mortality prognosis and has implications for developing intervention strategies to address high DTR exposure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Impact of a partial smoke-free legislation on myocardial infarction incidence, mortality and case-fatality in a population-based registry: the REGICOR Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Agüero

    Full Text Available Coronary heart disease (CHD is the leading cause of death, and smoking its strongest modifiable risk factor. Our aim was to determine the impact of the Spanish 2006 partial smoke-free legislation on acute myocardial infarction (AMI incidence, hospitalization and mortality rates, and 28-day case-fatality in Girona, Spain.Using a population-based registry (the REGICOR Study, we compared population incidence, hospitalization, and mortality rates, and 28-day case-fatality in the pre- and post-ban periods (2002-2005 and 2006-2008, respectively by binomial regression analysis adjusted for confounding factors. We also analyzed the ban's impact on the outcomes of interest using the AMI definitions of the American Heart Association (AHA/European Society of Cardiology (ESC and the World Health Organization (WHO-Monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular diseases (MONICA.In the post-ban period, AMI incidence and mortality rates significantly decreased (relative risk [RR] = 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81-0.97 and RR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.71-0.94, respectively. Incidence and mortality rates decreased in both sexes, especially in women, and in people aged 65-74 years. Former and non-smokers (passive smokers showed diminished incidence rates. Implementation of the ban was not associated with AMI case-fatality. Models tended to be more significant with the WHO-MONICA than with the AHA/ESC definition.The 2006 Spanish partial smoke-free legislation was associated with a decrease in population AMI incidence and mortality, particularly in women, in people aged 65-74 years, and in passive smokers. These results clarify the association between AMI mortality and the enactment of a partial smoke-free legislation and reinforce the effectiveness of smoking regulations in preventing CHD.

  5. Impact of Hemoglobin Levels and Anemia on Mortality in Acute Stroke: Analysis of UK Regional Registry Data, Systematic Review, and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlas, Raphae S; Honney, Katie; Loke, Yoon K; McCall, Stephen J; Bettencourt-Silva, Joao H; Clark, Allan B; Bowles, Kristian M; Metcalf, Anthony K; Mamas, Mamas A; Potter, John F; Myint, Phyo K

    2016-08-17

    The impact of hemoglobin levels and anemia on stroke mortality remains controversial. We aimed to systematically assess this association and quantify the evidence. We analyzed data from a cohort of 8013 stroke patients (mean±SD, 77.81±11.83 years) consecutively admitted over 11 years (January 2003 to May 2015) using a UK Regional Stroke Register. The impact of hemoglobin levels and anemia on mortality was assessed by sex-specific values at different time points (7 and 14 days; 1, 3, and 6 months; 1 year) using multiple regression models controlling for confounders. Anemia was present in 24.5% of the cohort on admission and was associated with increased odds of mortality at most of the time points examined up to 1 year following stroke. The association was less consistent for men with hemorrhagic stroke. Elevated hemoglobin was also associated with increased mortality, mainly within the first month. We then conducted a systematic review using the Embase and Medline databases. Twenty studies met the inclusion criteria. When combined with the cohort from the current study, the pooled population had 29 943 patients with stroke. The evidence base was quantified in a meta-analysis. Anemia on admission was found to be associated with an increased risk of mortality in both ischemic stroke (8 studies; odds ratio 1.97 [95% CI 1.57-2.47]) and hemorrhagic stroke (4 studies; odds ratio 1.46 [95% CI 1.23-1.74]). Strong evidence suggests that patients with anemia have increased mortality with stroke. Targeted interventions in this patient population may improve outcomes and require further evaluation. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  6. Determining the Impact of Forest Mortality in Semi-Arid Woodlands on Local and Regional Carbon Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litvak, Marcy [University of New Mexico

    2018-04-09

    We received funds in July 2012, and with supplemental funds, this funding ended in July 2017. Our overall project goals were to quantify the consequences of pinon mortality for carbon, water and energy exchange in pinon-juniper woodlands. To do this, we have been continuously measuring carbon, water and energy exchange using eddy covariance, over two pinon-juniper woodlands in central New Mexico. In one site, we girdled 1632 trees in the 4 ha surrounding the tower in Sept 2009. The other site, only 5 km away on the same plateau, was left intact, to serve as a control. We used this paired tower approach so we could directly evaluate the differences between how fluxes from disturbed and intact woodlands respond to the exact same climate conditions. In addition to eddy covariance measured fluxes from the two woodlands, we also made sap flux measurements, biomass, gas exchange, and soil respiration fluxes simultaneously in the two sites. The overall objective of this proposal is to measure the carbon and climate forcing consequences of widespread coniferous mortality events in the Southwestern US. We will incorporate these findings into a land surface model to understand the long term carbon dynamics of these mortality events and use remote sensing maps of mortality in PJ woodlands in NM to scale the implications of these events to regional carbon dynamics and atmospheric CO2. In 2013, our control PJ woodland experienced a natural pinon mortality event as bark beetles invaded the area. We received supplemental funds to quantify the extent of the mortality and how it progresses, and to add remotely sensed imagery to aid in this and estimate the loss of biomass at the site due to mortality. Finally, we have been exploring the use of both CLM and SIPNET to analyze how well these models to in representing how these woodlands change following pinon mortality. Here, I present the results of what we have learned in these areas: 1) how carbon, water and energy fluxes, have

  7. Attributable risk and potential impact of interventions to reduce household air pollution associated with under-five mortality in South Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naz, Sabrina; Page, Andrew; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore

    2018-01-01

    Solid fuel use is the major source of household air pollution (HAP) and accounts for a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality in low and middle income countries. To evaluate and compare childhood mortality attributable to HAP in four South Asian countries. A series of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan were used for analysis. Estimates of relative risk and exposure prevalence relating to use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality were used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for each country. Potential impact fractions (PIFs) were also calculated assessing theoretical scenarios based on published interventions aiming to reduce exposure prevalence. There are an increased risk of under-five mortality in those exposed to cooking fuel compared to those not exposed in the four South Asian countries (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.07-1.57, P  = 0.007). Combined PAF estimates for South Asia found that 66% (95% CI: 43.1-81.5%) of the 13,290 estimated cases of under-five mortality was attributable to HAP. Joint PIF estimates (assuming achievable reductions in HAP reported in intervention studies conducted in South Asia) indicates 47% of neonatal and 43% of under-five mortality cases associated with HAP could be avoidable in the four South Asian countries studied. Elimination of exposure to use of cooking fuel in the household targeting valuable intervention strategies (such as cooking in separate kitchen, improved cook stoves) could reduce substantially under-five mortality in South Asian countries.

  8. The potential impact of a social redistribution of specific risk factors on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality: illustration of a method based on population attributable fractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje Andreas; Kulhánová, Ivana; Dahl, Espen; Deboosere, Patrick; Dzúrová, Dagmar; van Oyen, Herman; Rychtaríková, Jitka; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2013-01-01

    Socioeconomic differences in health are a major challenge for public health. However, realistic estimates to what extent they are modifiable are scarce. This problem can be met through the systematic application of the population attributable fraction (PAF) to socioeconomic health inequalities. The authors used cause-specific mortality data by educational level from Belgium, Norway and Czech Republic and data on the prevalence of smoking, alcohol, lack of physical activity and high body mass index from national health surveys. Information on the impact of these risk factors on mortality comes from the epidemiological literature. The authors calculated PAFs to quantify the impact on socioeconomic health inequalities of a social redistribution of risk factors. The authors developed an Excel tool covering a wide range of possible scenarios and the authors compare the results of the PAF approach with a conventional regression. In a scenario where the whole population gets the risk factor prevalence currently seen among the highly educated inequalities in mortality can be reduced substantially. According to the illustrative results, the reduction of inequality for all risk factors combined varies between 26% among Czech men and 94% among Norwegian men. Smoking has the highest impact for both genders, and physical activity has more impact among women. After discussing the underlying assumptions of the PAF, the authors concluded that the approach is promising for estimating the extent to which health inequalities can be potentially reduced by interventions on specific risk factors. This reduction is likely to differ substantially between countries, risk factors and genders.

  9. Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

    2016-12-10

    Background : Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods : We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an "optimum temperature" that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results : The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%-13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%-12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%-2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%-24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%-16.01%); Conclusions : In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient

  10. Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Cui

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China; Methods: We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an “optimum temperature” that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results: The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%–13.65%. Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%–12.81%, while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%–2.35%. The attributable risk (AR of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%–24.24% than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%–16.01%; Conclusions: In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the

  11. [Impact of PCV10 pneumococcal vaccine on mortality from pneumonia in children less than one year of age in Santa Catarina State, Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupek, Emil; Vieira, Ilse Lisiane Viertel

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of PCV10 pneumococcal vaccine on mortality from pneumonia in children less than one year of age in Santa Catarina State, Brazil, comparing the four years prior and the four years subsequent to the vaccine's introduction in 2010. This ecological study used data from the Mortality Information System and vaccination coverage of children less than one year. Data were grouped by municipalities of residence and regions. Average mortality from pneumonia in children under one year decreased from 29.69 to 23.40 per 100,000, comparing 2006-2009 and 2010-2013, or a reduction of 11%. However there were differences between regions with a drop in mortality (Grande Florianópolis, Sul, Planalto Norte, and Nordeste) and others with an increase in the annual rates (Oeste, Itajaí, and Serra). In short, the state as a whole showed 11% reduction in mortality from pneumonia in children less than one year of age, four years after implementing routine PCV10 vaccination in the National Immunization Program, but with heterogeneous effects when comparing regions of the state.

  12. Long-term impact of overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence on morbidity and premature mortality in adulthood: systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, J J; Kelly, J

    2011-07-01

    The last systematic review on the health consequences of child and adolescent obesity found little evidence on consequences for adult health. The present study aimed to summarize evidence on the long-term impact of child and adolescent obesity for premature mortality and physical morbidity in adulthood. Systematic review with evidence searched from January 2002 to June 2010. Studies were included if they contained a measure of overweight and/or obesity between birth and 18 years (exposure measure) and premature mortality and physical morbidity (outcome) in adulthood. Five eligible studies examined associations between overweight and/or obesity, and premature mortality: 4/5 found significantly increased risk of premature mortality with child and adolescent overweight or obesity. All 11 studies with cardiometabolic morbidity as outcomes reported that overweight and obesity were associated with significantly increased risk of later cardiometabolic morbidity (diabetes, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, and stroke) in adult life, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.1-5.1. Nine studies examined associations of child or adolescent overweight and obesity with other adult morbidity: studies of cancer morbidity were inconsistent; child and adolescent overweight and obesity were associated with significantly increased risk of later disability pension, asthma, and polycystic ovary syndrome symptoms. A relatively large and fairly consistent body of evidence now demonstrates that overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence have adverse consequences on premature mortality and physical morbidity in adulthood.

  13. Impact of travel distance to the treatment facility on overall mortality in US patients with prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetterlein, Malte W; Löppenberg, Björn; Karabon, Patrick; Dalela, Deepansh; Jindal, Tarun; Sood, Akshay; Chun, Felix K-H; Trinh, Quoc-Dien; Menon, Mani; Abdollah, Firas

    2017-09-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of travel distance to the treating facility on the risk of overall mortality (OM) among US patients with prostate cancer (PCa). In total, 775,999 patients who had PCa in all stages and received treatment with different strategies (radical prostatectomy, radiation therapy, observation, androgen-deprivation therapy, multimodal treatment, and chemotherapy) were drawn from the National Cancer Data Base from 2004 through 2012. Independent predictors of travel distance (intermediate [12.5-49.9 miles] and long [49.9-249.9 miles] vs short[traveled short, intermediate, and long distances, respectively. Residency in rural areas and the receipt of treatment at academic/high-volume centers independently predicted long travel distance. Non-Hispanic black men and Medicaid-insured men were less likely to travel long distances (all P traveling a long distance (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.92; P traveling a short distance. This held true among non-Hispanic white men; privately insured and Medicare-insured men; those who underwent radical prostatectomy, received radiation therapy, and received multimodal strategies; and those who received treatment at academic/high-volume centers (P travel distance was associated with an increased OM in Medicaid-insured patients (P traveled long distances for PCa treatment, which is likely to be a reflection of centralization of care and more favorable patient-level characteristics in those travelers. Furthermore, the survival benefit mediated by long travel distances appears to be influenced by baseline socioeconomic, treatment, and facility-level factors. Cancer 2017;123:3241-52. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  14. Postneonatal mortality impacts following grants from the Gavi Vaccine Alliance: an econometric analysis from 2000 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolesar, R J; Audibert, M

    2017-12-01

    We completed a retrospective multivariate panel study to evaluate the effect of Gavi Vaccine Alliance grants on vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) postneonatal mortality. We separately tested a composite VPD mortality rate and five vaccine-preventable mortality rates: pertussis, meningitis, measles, diarrhea, and pneumonia (lower-respiratory infection) as dependent variables. All 77 countries eligible for Gavi assistance from 2000 to 2014 were included in the study. To isolate the effect of Gavi funding in our primary model, we controlled for known and likely predictors of child mortality. We found evidence that, among other factors, Gavi investment, antenatal care access, and girls' primary education are important elements to reduce vaccine-preventable mortality rates. For every $1 per capita invested by the Gavi Vaccine Alliance, there are statistically significant effects decreasing the VPD postneonatal mortality rate by 1.848 per 1000 live births. We also found Gavi investments to be significantly associated with reductions in three VPD-specific rates: pertussis, meningitis, and pneumonia. We conclude that Gavi investments in developing country immunization programs have measurably contributed to reductions in postneonatal VPD mortality rates. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Dual impact of temperature on growth and mortality of marine fish larvae in a shallow estuarine habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arula, Timo; Laur, Kerli; Simm, Mart; Ojaveer, Henn

    2015-12-01

    High individual growth and mortality rates of herring Clupea harengus membras and goby Pomatoschistus spp. larvae were observed in the estuarine habitat of the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea. Both instantaneous mortality (0.76-1.05) as well as growth rate (0.41-0.82 mm day-1) of larval herring were amongst highest observed elsewhere previously. Mortality rates of goby larvae were also high (0.57-1.05), while first ever data on growth rates were provided in this study (0.23-0.35 mm day-1). Our study also evidenced that higher growth rate of marine fish larvae did not result in lower mortalities. We suggest that high growth and mortality rates primarily resulted from a rapidly increasing and high (>18 °C) water temperature that masked potential food-web effects. The explanation for observed patterns lies in the interactive manner temperature contributed: i) facilitating prey production, which supported high growth rate and decreased mortalities; ii) exceeding physiological thermal optimum of larvae, which resulted in decreased growth rate and generally high mortalities. Our investigation suggests that the projected climate warming may have significant effect on early life history stages of the dominating marine fish species inhabiting shallow estuaries.

  16. Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

  17. Potential Impacts of Modifiable Behavioral and Environmental Exposures on Reducing Burden of Under-five Mortality Associated with Household Air Pollution in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naz, Sabrina; Page, Andrew; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore

    2018-01-01

    Objectives Household air pollution (HAP) is one of the leading causes of respiratory illness and deaths among young children in low and lower-middle income countries. This study examines for the first time trends in the association between HAP from cooking fuel and under-five mortality and measures the potential impact of interventions to reduce HAP using Nepal Demographic and Health Survey datasets (2001-2011). Methods A total of 17,780 living children across four age-groups (neonatal 0-28 days, post-neonatal 1-11 months, child 12-59 months and under-five 0-59 months) were included and multi-level logistic regression models were used for analyses. Population attributable fractions of key risk factors and potential impact fractions assessing the impact of previous interventions to reduce exposure prevalence were also calculated. Results Use of cooking fuel was associated with total under-five mortality (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.37-3.51, P = 0.001) in Nepal, with stronger associations evident for sub-group analyses of neonatal mortality (OR 2.67, 95% CI 1.47-4.82, P = 0.001). Higher association was found in rural areas and for households without a separate kitchen using polluting fuel for cooking, and in women who had never breastfed for all age-groups of children. PIF estimates, assuming a 63% of reduction of HAP based on previously published interventions in Nepal, suggested that a burden of 40% of neonatal and 33% of under-five mortality cases associated with an indoor kitchen using polluting fuel could be avoidable. Conclusion Improved infrastructure and behavioral interventions could help reduce the pollution from cooking fuel in the household resulting in further reduction in under-five mortality in Nepal.

  18. The impact of the worldwide Millennium Development Goals campaign on maternal and under-five child mortality reduction: 'Where did the worldwide campaign work most effectively?'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, Seungman

    2017-01-01

    As the Millennium Development Goals campaign (MDGs) came to a close, clear evidence was needed on the contribution of the worldwide MDG campaign. We seek to determine the degree of difference in the reduction rate between the pre-MDG and MDG campaign periods and its statistical significance by region. Unlike the prevailing studies that measured progress in 1990-2010, this study explores by percentage how much MDG progress has been achieved during the MDG campaign period and quantifies the impact of the MDG campaign on the maternal and under-five child mortality reduction during the MDG era by comparing observed values with counterfactual values estimated on the basis of the historical trend. The low accomplishment of sub-Saharan Africa toward the MDG target mainly resulted from the debilitated progress of mortality reduction during 1990-2000, which was not related to the worldwide MDG campaign. In contrast, the other regions had already achieved substantial progress before the Millennium Declaration was proclaimed. Sub-Saharan African countries have seen the most remarkable impact of the worldwide MDG campaign on maternal and child mortality reduction across all different measurements. In sub-Saharan Africa, the MDG campaign has advanced the progress of the declining maternal mortality ratio and under-five mortality rate, respectively, by 4.29 and 4.37 years. Sub-Saharan African countries were frequently labeled as 'off-track', 'insufficient progress', or 'no progress' even though the greatest progress was achieved here during the worldwide MDG campaign period and the impact of the worldwide MDG campaign was most pronounced in this region in all respects. It is time to learn from the success stories of the sub-Saharan African countries. Erroneous and biased measurement should be avoided for the sustainable development goals to progress.

  19. The impact of income inequality and national wealth on child and adolescent mortality in low and middle-income countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Joseph L; Viner, Russell M

    2017-05-11

    Income inequality and national wealth are strong determinants for health, but few studies have systematically investigated their influence on mortality across the early life-course, particularly outside the high-income world. We performed cross-sectional regression analyses of the relationship between income inequality (national Gini coefficient) and national wealth (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged over previous decade), and all-cause and grouped cause national mortality rate amongst infants, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24 year olds in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) in 2012. Gini models were adjusted for GDP. Data were available for 103 (79%) countries. Gini was positively associated with increased all-cause and communicable disease mortality in both sexes across all age groups, after adjusting for national wealth. Gini was only positively associated with increased injury mortality amongst infants and 20-24 year olds, and increased non-communicable disease mortality amongst 20-24 year old females. The strength of these associations tended to increase during adolescence. Increasing GDP was negatively associated with all-cause, communicable and non-communicable disease mortality in males and females across all age groups. GDP was also associated with decreased injury mortality in all age groups except 15-19 year old females, and 15-24 year old males. GDP became a weaker predictor of mortality during adolescence. Policies to reduce income inequality, rather than prioritising economic growth at all costs, may be needed to improve adolescent mortality in low and middle-income countries, a key development priority.

  20. Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2012-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. However, extremely high mortality also can be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  1. FEMALE FARMWORKERS’ PERCEPTIONS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS AND PREGNANCY HEALTH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flocks, Joan; Mac, Valerie Vi Thien; Runkle, Jennifer; Tovar-Aguilar, Jose Antonio; Economos, Jeannie; McCauley, Linda A.

    2017-01-01

    While agricultural workers have elevated risks of heat-related illnesses (HRI), pregnant farmworkers exposed to extreme heat face additional health risk, including poor pregnancy health and birth outcomes. Qualitative data from five focus groups with 35 female Hispanic and Haitian nursery and fernery workers provide details about the women’s perceptions of HRI and pregnancy. Participants believe that heat exposure can adversely affect general, pregnancy, and fetal health, yet feel they lack control over workplace conditions and that they lack training about these specific risks. These data are being used to develop culturally appropriate educational materials emphasizing health promoting and protective behaviors during pregnancy. PMID:24125050

  2. Female farmworkers' perceptions of heat-related illness and pregnancy health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flocks, Joan; Vi Thien Mac, Valerie; Runkle, Jennifer; Tovar-Aguilar, Jose Antonio; Economos, Jeannie; McCauley, Linda A

    2013-01-01

    Although agricultural workers have elevated risks of heat-related illnesses (HRI), pregnant farmworkers exposed to extreme heat face additional health risk, including poor pregnancy health and birth outcomes. Qualitative data from five focus groups with 35 female Hispanic and Haitian nursery and fernery workers provide details about the women's perceptions of HRI and pregnancy. Participants believe that heat exposure can adversely affect general, pregnancy, and fetal health, yet feel they lack control over workplace conditions and that they lack training about these specific risks. These data are being used to develop culturally appropriate educational materials emphasizing health promoting and protective behaviors during pregnancy.

  3. ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CONTINUOUS BACTERIAL TREATMENTS OVER A TWO-WEEK PERIOD ON ZEBRA MUSSEL MORTALITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniel P. Molloy

    2001-07-17

    These experiments indicated that in waters at 23 C the window of opportunity to kill zebra mussels with bacterial strain CL0145A is limited to the first two days of treatment. Treatments beyond two days will not increase mortality.

  4. Impact of acute kidney injury on long-term mortality and progression to chronic kidney disease among critically ill children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najlaa G. Al-Otaibi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To determine the 2-year outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI following admission to pediatric critical care units (PICU. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 2012 and December 2013. We followed 131 children admitted to PICU, King Abdulaziz University Hospital, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with a diagnosis of AKI, based on pRIFLE (pediatric risk, injury, failure, loss, and end-stage renal disease, for 2 years. During the study period, 46 children died and 38 of survivors completed the follow-up. Factors affecting long-term progression to chronic kidney disease were also evaluated. Results: The 2-year mortality was more than 40%. The main determinant of the 2-year mortality was the pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM score, which increased the risk of mortality by 6% per each one score (adjusted odds ratio, 1.06: 95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.11. By the end of the 2 years, 33% of survivors had reduction in the glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria, and 73% were hypertensive. Patients with more severe renal impairment at admission, based on the pRIFLE criteria, had higher mortality rate. This association, however, was not independent since it was influenced by baseline disease severity (PRISM score. Conclusion: Large proportion of patients admitted to PICU with AKI either died during the first 2 months of follow-up or developed long-term complications. The severity of AKI, however, was not an independent risk factor for mortality.

  5. Framework for Evaluating the Health Impact of the Scale-Up of Malaria Control Interventions on All-Cause Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yé, Yazoume; Eisele, Thomas P.; Eckert, Erin; Korenromp, Eline; Shah, Jui A.; Hershey, Christine L.; Ivanovich, Elizabeth; Newby, Holly; Carvajal-Velez, Liliana; Lynch, Michael; Komatsu, Ryuichi; Cibulskis, Richard E.; Moore, Zhuzhi; Bhattarai, Achuyt

    2017-01-01

    Abstract. Concerted efforts from national and international partners have scaled up malaria control interventions, including insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, diagnostics, prompt and effective treatment of malaria cases, and intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This scale-up warrants an assessment of its health impact to guide future efforts and investments; however, measuring malaria-specific mortality and the overall impact of malaria control interventions remains challenging. In 2007, Roll Back Malaria's Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group proposed a theoretical framework for evaluating the impact of full-coverage malaria control interventions on morbidity and mortality in high-burden SSA countries. Recently, several evaluations have contributed new ideas and lessons to strengthen this plausibility design. This paper harnesses that new evaluation experience to expand the framework, with additional features, such as stratification, to examine subgroups most likely to experience improvement if control programs are working; the use of a national platform framework; and analysis of complete birth histories from national household surveys. The refined framework has shown that, despite persisting data challenges, combining multiple sources of data, considering potential contributions from both fundamental and proximate contextual factors, and conducting subnational analyses allows identification of the plausible contributions of malaria control interventions on malaria morbidity and mortality. PMID:28990923

  6. Model-supported estimation of mortality rates in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L. larvae: the varying impact of 'critical periods'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hinrichsen Hans-Harald

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Changes in the survival-rate during the larval phase may strongly influence the recruitment level in marine fish species. During the larval phase different 'critical periods' are discussed, e.g. the hatching period and the first-feeding period. No such information was available for the Baltic cod stock, a commercially important stock showing reproduction failure during the last years. We calculated field-based mortality rates for larval Baltic cod during these phases using basin-wide abundance estimates from two consecutive surveys. Survey information was corrected by three dimensional hydrodynamic model runs. Results The corrections applied for transport were of variable impact, depending on the prevailing circulation patterns. Especially at high wind forcing scenarios, abundance estimates have the potential to be biased without accounting for transport processes. In May 1988 mortality between hatch and first feeding amounted to approximately 20% per day. Mortality rates during the onset of feeding were considerably lower with only 7% per day. In August 1991 the situation was vice versa: Extremely low mortality rates of 0.08% per day were calculated between hatch and first feeding, while the period between the onset of feeding to the state of an established feeder was more critical with mortality rates of 22% per day. Conclusions Mortality rates during the different proposed 'critical periods' were found to be highly variable. Survival rates of Baltic cod are not only influenced by a single 'critical period', but can be limited at different points during the larval phase, depending on several biotic and abiotic factors.

  7. Impact of Different Levels of iPTH on All-Cause Mortality in Dialysis Patients with Secondary Hyperparathyroidism after Parathyroidectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Qiu Ping; Xie, Xi Sheng; Zhang, Ling; Zhang, Rui; Xiao, Yue Fei; Jin, Cheng Gang; Li, Yan Bo; Wang, Lin; Zhang, Xiao Xuan; Du, Shu Tong

    2017-01-01

    Secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) usually required parathyroidectomy (PTX) when drugs treatment is invalid. Analysis was done on the impact of different intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) after the PTX on all-cause mortality. An open, retrospective, multicenter cohort design was conducted. The sample included 525 dialysis patients with SHPT who had undergone PTX. 404 patients conformed to the standard, with 36 (8.91%) deaths during the 11 years of follow-up. One week postoperatively, different levels of serum iPTH were divided into four groups: A: ≤20 pg/mL; B: 21-150 pg/mL; C: 151-600 pg/mL; and D: >600 pg/mL. All-cause mortality in groups with different iPTH levels appeared as follows: A (8.29%), B (3.54%), C (10.91%), and D (29.03%). The all-cause mortality of B was the lowest, with D the highest. We used group A as reference (hazard ratio (HR) = 1) compared with the other groups, and HRs on groups B, C, and D appeared as 0.57, 1.43, and 3.45, respectively. The all-cause mortality was associated with different levels of iPTH after the PTX. We found that iPTH > 600 pg/mL appeared as a factor which increased the risk of all-cause mortality. When iPTH levels were positively and effectively reducing, the risk of all-cause mortality also decreased. The most appropriate level of postoperative iPTH seemed to be 21-150 pg/mL.

  8. The impact of prenatal care quality on neonatal, infant and child mortality in Zimbabwe: evidence from the demographic and health surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makate, Marshall; Makate, Clifton

    2017-04-01

    The impact of the quality of prenatal care on child mortality outcomes has received less attention in sub-Saharan Africa. This study endeavoured to explore the effect of the quality of prenatal care and its individual components on neonatal, infant and under-five mortality. The empirical analysis uses data from the three most recent waves of the nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey for Zimbabwe conducted in 1999, 2005/06 and 2010/11. The results indicate that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the prospect of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by approximately 42.33, 30.86 and 28.65%, respectively. These findings remained roughly the same even after adjusting for potential mediating factors. Examining the effect of individual prenatal care components on child mortality revealed that women who receive information on possible complications arising during pregnancy are less liable to experience a neonatal death. Similarly, women who had blood pressure checks and tetanus immunizations were less likely to experience an infant or under-five death. We did not find any statistically meaningful impact on child mortality outcomes of blood and urine sample checks, iron tablet consumption, and the receipt of malarial tablets. Overall, our results suggest the need for public health policymakers to focus on ensuring high-quality prenatal care to enhance the survival prospects of Zimbabwe's infants. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

    2017-11-15

    Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G

    2017-01-01

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.

  11. 30 Year patterns of mortality in Tobago, West Indies, 1976-2005: impact of glucose intolerance and alcohol intake.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Molokhia

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To determine the main predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV mortality in a rural West Indian population in Plymouth, Tobago over 30 years. METHODS: Questionnaire survey for CV risk factors and alcohol consumption patterns administered at baseline in 1976 with 92.5% response rate. 831/832 patients were followed up until 2005 or death. RESULTS: Hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg was prevalent in 48% of men and 44% of women, and 21% of men and 17% of women had diabetes. Evidence showed most predictors for all cause and cardiovascular mortality having the main effects at ages 160/95 mm Hg (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60, diabetes (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.89-5.69, and BMI (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07. The main predictors of cardiovascular mortality were similar in the fully adjusted model: high sessional alcohol intake (HR 2.47 95% CI 1.10-5.57, severe hypertension (HR 2.78 95% CI 1.56-4.95, diabetes (HR 3.68 95% CI 1.77-7.67 and additionally LVH, (HR 5.54 95% CI 1.38-22.26, however BMI did not show independent effects. For men, high sessional alcohol intake explains 27% of all cause mortality, and 40% of cardiovascular mortality at age <60 yrs. In adults aged <60 years, the attributable risk fraction for IGT/Diabetes and all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality is 28% in women vs. 11% in men, and 22% in women vs. 6% in men respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this Afro-Caribbean population we found that a major proportion of deaths are attributable to high sessional alcohol intake (in males, diabetes, and hypertension and these risk factors primarily operate in those below 60 years.

  12. The structure of spruce-fir tree stands mortality under impact of the Middle Ural copper smelter emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. E. Bergman

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The influence of industrial pollution on mortality values (dead fallen wood and dead standing trees and its distribution by degrees of decomposition were investigated in spruce-fir forest stands in the vicinity of the Middle Ural copper smelter (the city of Revda, Sverdlovsk region. The total mortality and mortality in each size category did not depend on the distance to the source of pollution. At the same time, the amount of dead fallen wood was significantly greater (1.9 times in the polluted area (2 and 4 km from the smelter as compared with the background territory (30 km from the smelter. Mortality proportion out of the total number of the trees (both live and dead did not differ significantly between the sites, although this parameter tended to increase nearer the smelter. The distribution of mortality by size categories revealed significant differences between background territory and site with average level of contamination, as well as background territory and highly contaminated site. Observed differences are associated with an increased proportion of lesser mortality near the smelter (by 15 % and 12 % as compared with areas of background and middle levels of contamination, respectively, as well as because of double-declining of medium- and large-sized mortality near the smelter. The distribution of the living tree stands by size categories also has a connection with level of contamination. The average diameters of the living tree stand and the elements of coarse woody debris (dead fallen wood and dead standing trees do not differ significantly between sites with different levels of contamination. For the small-sized dead fallen wood, the proportion of weakly decomposed stems increased with the level of pollution, while proportion of strongly decomposed stems decreased. The distribution of medium- and large-sized dead fallen wood on the stages of decomposition does not vary between sites with different levels of pollution.

  13. Relationships Between Excessive Heat and Daily Mortality over the Coterminous U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maury G., Jr.; Estes, Sue M.; Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2015-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. Using National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) meteorological reanalysis data, we have developed several measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. These measures include daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily maximum heat indices and a new heat stress variable called Net Daily Heat Stress (NDHS) that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. All output has been created on the NLDAS 1/8 degree (approximately 12 km) grid and aggregated to the county level, which is the preferred geographic scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics have been made available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. We have examined the relationship between excessive heat events, as defined in eight different ways from the various daily heat metrics, and heat-related and all-cause mortality defined in CDC's National Center for Health Statistics 'Multiple Causes of Death 1999-2010' dataset. To do this, we linked daily, county-level heat mortality counts with EHE occurrence based on each of the eight EHE definitions by region and nationally for the period 1999-2010. The objectives of this analysis are to determine (1) whether heat-related deaths can be clearly tied to excessive heat events, (2) what time lags are critical for predicting heat-related deaths, and (3) which of the heat metrics correlates best with mortality in each US region. Results show large regional differences in the correlations between heat and mortality. Also, the heat metric that provides the best indicator of mortality varied by region

  14. Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajat, Shakoor; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd

    2014-07-01

    The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  15. Impact of covariate models on the assessment of the air pollution-mortality association in a single- and multipollutant context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacks, Jason D; Ito, Kazuhiko; Wilson, William E; Neas, Lucas M

    2012-10-01

    With the advent of multicity studies, uniform statistical approaches have been developed to examine air pollution-mortality associations across cities. To assess the sensitivity of the air pollution-mortality association to different model specifications in a single and multipollutant context, the authors applied various regression models developed in previous multicity time-series studies of air pollution and mortality to data from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (May 1992-September 1995). Single-pollutant analyses used daily cardiovascular mortality, fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm; PM(2.5)), speciated PM(2.5), and gaseous pollutant data, while multipollutant analyses used source factors identified through principal component analysis. In single-pollutant analyses, risk estimates were relatively consistent across models for most PM(2.5) components and gaseous pollutants. However, risk estimates were inconsistent for ozone in all-year and warm-season analyses. Principal component analysis yielded factors with species associated with traffic, crustal material, residual oil, and coal. Risk estimates for these factors exhibited less sensitivity to alternative regression models compared with single-pollutant models. Factors associated with traffic and crustal material showed consistently positive associations in the warm season, while the coal combustion factor showed consistently positive associations in the cold season. Overall, mortality risk estimates examined using a source-oriented approach yielded more stable and precise risk estimates, compared with single-pollutant analyses.

  16. Heat-related inpatient hospitalizations and emergency room visits among California residents, May-September, 2000-2010.

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Environmental Health Tracking Program — This dataset contains case counts, rates, and confidence intervals of heat-related inpatient hospitalizations and ED visits among California residents for the years...

  17. Impact of stroke unit in a public hospital on length of hospitalization and rate of early mortality of ischemic stroke patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Sheila G. Rocha

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We ascertained whether a public health stroke unit reduces the length of hospitalization, the rate of inpatient fatality, and the mortality rate 30 days after the stroke. Methods We compared a cohort of stroke patients managed on a general neurology/medical ward with a similar cohort of stroke patients managed in a str oke unit. The in-patient fatality rates and 30-day mortality rates were analyzed. Results 729 patients were managed in the general ward and 344 were treated at a comprehensive stroke unit. The in-patient fatality rates were 14.7% for the general ward group and 6.9% for the stroke unit group (p<0.001. The overall mortality rate 30 days after stroke was 20.9% for general ward patients and 14.2% for stroke unit patients (p=0.005. Conclusions We observed reduced in-patient fatalities and 30-day mortality rates in patients managed in the stroke unit. There was no impact on the length of hospitalization.

  18. The impact of socioeconomic status on the association between biomedical and psychosocial well-being and all-cause mortality in older Spanish adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doménech-Abella, Joan; Mundó, Jordi; Moneta, Maria Victoria; Perales, Jaime; Ayuso-Mateos, José Luis; Miret, Marta; Haro, Josep Maria; Olaya, Beatriz

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this paper was to analyze the effect of biomedical and psychosocial well-being, based on distinct successful aging models (SA), on time to mortality, and determine whether this effect was modified by socioeconomic status (SES) in a nationally representative sample of older Spanish adults. Data were taken from a 3-year follow-up study with 2783 participants aged 50 or over. Vital status was ascertained using national registers or asking participants' relatives. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate the time to death by SES, and levels of biomedical and psychosocial SA. Cox proportional hazard regression models were conducted to explore interactions between SES and SA models while adjusting for gender, age, and marital status. Lower levels of SES and biomedical and psychosocial SA were associated with low probability of survival. Only the interaction between SES and biomedical SA was significant. Biomedical SA impacted on mortality rates among individuals with low SES but not on those with medium or high SES, whereas psychosocial SA affected mortality regardless of SES. Promoting equal access to health care system and improved psychosocial well-being could be a protective factor against premature mortality in older Spanish adults with low SES.

  19. Carbon Impacts of Fire- and Bark Beetle-Caused Tree Mortality across the Western US using the Community Land Model (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meddens, A. J.; Hicke, J. A.; Edburg, S. L.; Lawrence, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    Wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks cause major forest disturbances in the western US, affecting ecosystem productivity and thereby impacting forest carbon cycling and future climate. Despite the large spatial extent of tree mortality, quantifying carbon flux dynamics following fires and bark beetles over larger areas is challenging because of forest heterogeneity, varying disturbance severities, and field observation limitations. The objective of our study is to estimate these dynamics across the western US using the Community Land Model (version CLM4.5-BGC). CLM4.5-BGC is a land ecosystem model that mechanistically represents the exchanges of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen with the atmosphere. The most recent iteration of the model has been expanded to include vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and includes improved nitrogen cycle representations including nitrification and denitrification and biological fixation as well as improved canopy processes including photosynthesis. Prior to conducting simulations, we modified CLM4.5-BGC to include the effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on carbon and nitrogen stocks and fluxes. Once modified, we conducted paired simulations (with and without) fire- and bark beetle-caused tree mortality by using regional data sets of observed mortality as inputs. Bark beetle-caused tree mortality was prescribed from a data set derived from US Forest Service aerial surveys from 1997 to 2010. Annual tree mortality area was produced from observed tree mortality caused by bark beetles and was adjusted for underestimation. Fires were prescribed using the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) database from 1984 to 2010. Annual tree mortality area was produced from forest cover maps and inclusion of moderate- and high-severity burned areas. Simulations show that maximum yearly reduction of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) caused by bark beetles is approximately 20 Tg C for the western US. Fires cause similar reductions

  20. Do other cardiovascular risk factors influence the impact of age on the association between blood pressure and mortality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vishram, Julie K K; Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H

    2014-01-01

    Hg increase in SBP/DBP by multivariate-adjusted Cox regressions, including SBP and DBP simultaneously. Because of nonlinearity, SBP and DBP were analyzed separately for blood pressure (BP) values above and below a cut-point wherein mortality risk was the lowest. For the total population, significantly...... 82 mmHg [1.03 (1.02-1.05)]. BP values below the cut-points were inversely related to mortality risk. Taking into account the age × BP interaction, there was a gradual shift from DBP (19-26 years) to both DBP and SBP (27-62 years) and to SBP (63-78 years) as risk factors for stroke mortality and all...

  1. The inpatient economic and mortality impact of hepatocellular carcinoma from 2005 to 2009: analysis of the US nationwide inpatient sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Alita; Otgonsuren, Munkhzul; Venkatesan, Chapy; Afendy, Mariam; Erario, Madeline; Younossi, Zobair M

    2013-09-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important complication of cirrhosis. Our aim was to assess the inpatient economic and mortality of HCC in the USA METHODS: Five cycles of Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) conducted from 2005 to 2009 were used. Demographics, inpatient mortality, severity of illness, payer type, length of stay (LoS) and charges were available. Changes and associated factors related to inpatient HCC were assessed using simple linear regression. Odds ratios and 95% CIs for hospital mortality were analysed using log-linked regression model. To estimate the sampling variances for complex survey data, we used Taylor series approach. SAS(®) v.9.3 was used for statistical analysis. From 2005 to 2009, 32,697,993 inpatient cases were reported to NIS. During these 5 years, primary diagnosis of HCC increased from 4401 (2005), 4170 (2006), 5065 (2007), 6540 (2008) to 6364 (2009). HCC as any diagnosis increased from 68 per 100,000 discharges (2005) to 99 per 100,000 (2009). However, inpatient mortality associated with HCC decreased from 12% (2005) to 10% (2009) (P < 0.046) and LoS remained stable. However, median inflation-adjusted charges at the time of discharge increased from $29,466 per case (2005) to $31,656 per case (2009). Total national HCC charges rose from $1.0 billion (2005) to $2.0 billion (2009). In multivariate analysis, hospital characteristic was independently associated with decreasing in-hospital mortality (all P < 0.05). Liver transplantation for HCC was the main contributor to high inpatient charges. Longer LoS and other procedures also contributed to higher inpatient charges. There is an increase in the number of inpatient cases of HCC. Although inpatient mortality is decreasing and the LoS is stable, the inpatient charges associated with HCC continue to increase. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. The impact of increasing income inequalities on educational inequalities in mortality - An analysis of six European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Rasmus; Hu, Yannan; de Gelder, Rianne; Menvielle, Gwenn; Bopp, Matthias; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2016-07-08

    Over the past decades, both health inequalities and income inequalities have been increasing in many European countries, but it is unknown whether and how these trends are related. We test the hypothesis that trends in health inequalities and trends in income inequalities are related, i.e. that countries with a stronger increase in income inequalities have also experienced a stronger increase in health inequalities. We collected trend data on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, as well as on the household income of people aged 35-79, for Belgium, Denmark, England & Wales, France, Slovenia, and Switzerland. We calculated absolute and relative differences in mortality and income between low- and high-educated people for several time points in the 1990s and 2000s. We used fixed-effects panel regression models to see if changes in income inequality predicted changes in mortality inequality. The general trend in income inequality between high- and low-educated people in the six countries is increasing, while the mortality differences between educational groups show diverse trends, with absolute differences mostly decreasing and relative differences increasing in some countries but not in others. We found no association between trends in income inequalities and trends in inequalities in all-cause mortality, and trends in mortality inequalities did not improve when adjusted for rising income inequalities. This result held for absolute as well as for relative inequalities. A cause-specific analysis revealed some association between income inequality and mortality inequality for deaths from external causes, and to some extent also from cardiovascular diseases, but without statistical significance. We find no support for the hypothesis that increasing income inequality explains increasing health inequalities. Possible explanations are that other factors are more important mediators of the effect of education on health, or more simply that income is not an important

  3. Risk Factors for Heat-related Illness in U.S. Workers: An OSHA Case Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tustin, Aaron W; Cannon, Dawn L; Arbury, Sheila B; Thomas, Richard J; Hodgson, Michael J

    2018-05-30

    The aim of this study was to describe risk factors for heat-related illness (HRI) in U.S. workers. We reviewed a subset of HRI enforcement investigations conducted by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) from 2011 through 2016. We assessed characteristics of the workers, employers, and events. We stratified cases by severity to assess whether risk factors were more prevalent in fatal HRIs. We analyzed 38 investigations involving 66 HRIs. Many workers had predisposing medical conditions or used predisposing medications. Comorbidities were more prevalent in workers who died. Most (73%) fatal HRIs occurred during the first week on the job. Common clinical findings in heat stroke cases included multiorgan failure, muscle breakdown, and systemic inflammation. Severe HRI is more likely when personal susceptibilities coexist with work-related and environmental risk factors. Almost all HRIs occur when employers do not adhere to preventive guidelines.

  4. Occupational mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, Elsebeth

    2011-01-01

    -1975 revealed a considerable social class gradient in male mortality where university teachers and farmers had a 40% lower mortality and waiters and seamen had an about 100% higher mortality than the average for economically active men. The social class gradient was less steep for women. A similar pattern...

  5. The effects of season and meteorology on human mortality in tropical climates: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Khan, Md Mobarak Hossain; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Langner, Marcel; Krämer, Alexander; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2014-07-01

    Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effects of seasonal and meteorological conditions. However, little scientific knowledge exists to date about the impacts of atmospheric parameters on human mortality in tropical regions. Working within the scope of this systematic review, this investigation conducted a literature search using different databases; original research articles were chosen according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Both seasonal and meteorological effects were considered. The findings suggest that high amounts of rainfall and increasing temperatures cause a seasonal excess in infectious disease mortality and are therefore relevant in regions and populations in which such diseases are prevalent. On the contrary, moderately low and very high temperatures exercise an adverse effect on cardio-respiratory mortality and shape the mortality pattern in areas and sub-groups in which these diseases are dominant. Atmospheric effects were subject to population-specific factors such as age and socio-economic status and differed between urban and rural areas. The consequences of climate change as well as environmental, epidemiological and social change (e.g., emerging non-communicable diseases, ageing of the population, urbanization) suggest a growing relevance of heat-related excess mortality in tropical regions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Hispanic and Immigrant Paradoxes in U.S. Breast Cancer Mortality: Impact of Neighborhood Poverty and Hispanic Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandi L. Pruitt

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available To test the Hispanic and Immigrant Paradoxes—i.e., survival advantages despite a worse risk factor profile—and the modifying role of neighborhood context, we examined associations between patient ethnicity, birthplace, neighborhood Hispanic density and neighborhood poverty among 166,254 female breast cancer patients diagnosed 1995–2009 in Texas, U.S. Of all, 79.9% were non-Hispanic White, 15.8% Hispanic U.S.-born, and 4.2% Hispanic foreign-born. We imputed birthplace for the 60.7% of Hispanics missing birthplace data using multiple imputation. Shared frailty Cox proportional hazard models (patients nested within census tracts adjusted for age, diagnosis year, stage, grade, histology, urban/rural residence, and local mammography capacity. Whites (vs. U.S.-born Hispanics had increased all-cause and breast cancer mortality. Foreign-born (vs. U.S.-born Hispanics had increased all-cause and breast cancer mortality. Living in higher Hispanic density neighborhoods was generally associated with increased mortality, although associations differed slightly in magnitude and significance by ethnicity, birthplace, and neighborhood poverty. We found no evidence of an Immigrant Paradox and some evidence of a Hispanic Paradox where protective effects were limited to U.S.-born Hispanics. Contrary to prior studies, foreign birthplace and residence in higher Hispanic density neighborhoods were associated with increased mortality. More research on intersections between ethnicity, birthplace and neighborhood context are needed.

  7. Impact of Arterial Hypertension on Short-Therm Mortality and in Hospital Complications of Patiens with Acute Myocardial Infarction:

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Monhart, Z.; Faltus, Václav; Grünfeldová, H.; Ryšavá, D.; Velimský, T.; Ballek, J.; Hubač, J.; Janský, P.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 25, Suppl. 2 (2007), S 360-S361 ISSN 0952-1178. [European Meeting on Hypertension /17./. 15.06.2007-19.06.2007, Milan] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : arterial hypertension * myocardial infarction * short-term mortality

  8. Impact of missing data on standardised mortality ratios for acute myocardial infarction: evidence from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) 2004-7.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, C P; Cattle, B A; Moore, J; Dawe, H; Greenwood, D C; West, R M

    2011-12-01

    Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) are often used to depict cardiovascular care. Data missingness, data quality, temporal variation and case-mix can, however, complicate the assessment of clinical performance. To study Primary Care Trust (PCT) 30-day SMRs for STEMI and NSTEMI whilst considering the impact of missing data for age, sex and IMD score. Observational study using data from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) database to generate PCT SMR maps and funnel plots for England, 2004-2007. 217,157 40.4% STEMI and 59.6% NSTEMI. 95% CI 30-day unadjusted mortality: STEMI 5.8% to 6.2%; NSTEMI 6.6% to 6.9%; relative risk, 95% CI 1.14, 1.10 to 1.19. Median (IQR) data missingess by PCT for composite of age, sex and IMD score was 1.4% (0.7% to 2.2%). For STEMI and NSTEMI statistically significant predictors of mortality were mean age (STEMI: Pmodel fit in terms of deviance explained. For STEMI there were 33 (21.7%) regions below the 99.8% lower limit of the associated performance funnel plot, and 28 (18.4%) for NSTEMI; the inclusion of missing data did not affect the distribution of SMRs. The proportion of missing data was associated with 30-day mortality for STEMI and NSTEMI, however it did not influence the distribution of PCTs within the funnel plots. There was considerable variation in mortality not attributable to key patient-specific factors, supporting the notion of regional-dependent variation in STEMI and NSTEMI care.

  9. Does a better adherence to dietary guidelines reduce mortality risk and environmental impact in the Dutch sub-cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biesbroek, Sander; Verschuren, W M Monique; Boer, Jolanda M A; van de Kamp, Mirjam E; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Geelen, Anouk; Looman, Moniek; Temme, Elisabeth H M

    2017-07-01

    Guidelines for a healthy diet aim to decrease the risk of chronic diseases. It is unclear as to what extent a healthy diet is also an environmentally friendly diet. In the Dutch sub-cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, the diet was assessed with a 178-item FFQ of 40 011 participants aged 20-70 years between 1993 and 1997. The WHO's Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI), the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) score and the Dutch Healthy Diet index 2015 (DHD15-index) were investigated in relation to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use and all-cause mortality risk. GHG emissions were associated with HDI scores (-3·7 % per sd increase (95 % CI -3·4, -4·0) for men and -1·9 % (95 % CI -0·4, -3·4) for women), with DASH scores in women only (1·1 % per sd increase, 95 % CI 0·9, 1·3) and with DHD15-index scores (-2·5 % per sd increase (95 % CI -2·2, -2·8) for men and -2·0 % (95 % CI -1·9, -2·2) for women). For all indices, higher scores were associated with less land use (ranging from -1·3 to -3·1 %). Mortality risk decreased with increasing scores for all indices. Per sd increase of the indices, hazard ratios for mortality ranged from 0·88 (95 % CI 0·82, 0·95) to 0·96 (95 % CI 0·92, 0·99). Our results showed that adhering to the WHO and Dutch dietary guidelines will lower the risk of all-cause mortality and moderately lower the environmental impact. The DASH diet was associated with lower mortality and land use, but because of high dairy product consumption in the Netherlands it was also associated with higher GHG emissions.

  10. A novel early risk assessment tool for detecting clinical outcomes in patients with heat-related illness (J-ERATO score: Development and validation in independent cohorts in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kei Hayashida

    Full Text Available We sought to develop a novel risk assessment tool to predict the clinical outcomes after heat-related illness.Prospective, multicenter observational study. Patients who transferred to emergency hospitals in Japan with heat-related illness were registered. The sample was divided into two parts: 60% to construct the score and 40% to validate it. A binary logistic regression model was used to predict hospital admission as a primary outcome. The resulting model was transformed into a scoring system.A total of 3,001 eligible patients were analyzed. There was no difference in variables between development and validation cohorts. Based on the result of a logistic regression model in the development phase (n = 1,805, the J-ERATO score was defined as the sum of the six binary components in the prehospital setting (respiratory rate≥22 /min, Glasgow coma scale0.2 by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The observed proportion of hospital admission increased with increasing J-ERATO score (score = 0, 5.0%; score = 1, 15.0%; score = 2, 24.6%; score = 3, 38.6%; score = 4, 68.0%; score = 5, 85.2%; score = 6, 96.4%. Multivariate analyses showed that the J-ERATO score was an independent positive predictor of hospital admission (adjusted OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.06-2.87; P<0.001, intensive care unit (ICU admission (3.73; 2.95-4.72; P<0.001 and in-hospital mortality (1.65; 1.18-2.32; P = 0.004.The J-ERATO score is simply assessed and can facilitate the identification of patients with higher risk of heat-related hospitalization. This scoring system is also significantly associated with the higher likelihood of ICU admission and in-hospital mortality after heat-related hospitalization.

  11. Impact of maternal diabetes mellitus on mortality and morbidity of very low birth weight infants: a multicenter Latin America study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandi, Carlos; Tapia, Jose L; Cardoso, Viviane C

    2015-01-01

    To compare mortality and morbidity in very low birth weight infants (VLBWI) born to women with and without diabetes mellitus (DM). This was a cohort study with retrospective data collection (2001-2010, n=11.991) from the NEOCOSUR network. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the outcome of neonatal mortality and morbidity as a function of maternal DM. Women with no DM served as the reference group. The rate of maternal DM was 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5-3.1), but a significant (p=0.019) increase was observed between 2001-2005 (2.4%, 2.1-2.8) and 2006-2010 (3.2%, 2.8-3.6). Mothers with DM were more likely to have received a complete course of prenatal steroids than those without DM. Infants of diabetic mothers had a slightly higher gestational age and birth weight than infants of born to non-DM mothers. Distribution of mean birth weight Z-scores, small for gestational age status, and Apgar scores were similar. There were no significant differences between the two groups regarding respiratory distress syndrome, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, and patent ductus arteriosus. Delivery room mortality, total mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, and early-onset sepsis rates were significantly lower in the diabetic group, whereas necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) was significantly higher in infants born to DM mothers. In the logistic regression analysis, NEC grades 2-3 was the only condition independently associated with DM (adjusted OR: 1.65 [95% CI: 1.2 -2.27]). VLBWI born to DM mothers do not appear to be at an excess risk of mortality or early morbidity, except for NEC. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  12. Impact of maternal diabetes mellitus on mortality and morbidity of very low birth weight infants: a multicenter Latin America study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Grandi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To compare mortality and morbidity in very low birth weight infants (VLBWI born to women with and without diabetes mellitus (DM. METHODS: This was a cohort study with retrospective data collection (2001-2010, n = 11.991 from the NEOCOSUR network. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the outcome of neonatal mortality and morbidity as a function of maternal DM. Women with no DM served as the reference group. RESULTS: The rate of maternal DM was 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5-3.1, but a significant (p = 0.019 increase was observed between 2001-2005 (2.4%, 2.1-2.8 and 2006-2010 (3.2%, 2.8-3.6. Mothers with DM were more likely to have received a complete course of prenatal steroids than those without DM. Infants of diabetic mothers had a slightly higher gestational age and birth weight than infants of born to non-DM mothers. Distribution of mean birth weight Z-scores, small for gestational age status, and Apgar scores were similar. There were no significant differences between the two groups regarding respiratory distress syndrome, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, and patent ductus arteriosus. Delivery room mortality, total mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, and early-onset sepsis rates were significantly lower in the diabetic group, whereas necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC was significantly higher in infants born to DM mothers. In the logistic regression analysis, NEC grades 2-3 was the only condition independently associated with DM (adjusted OR: 1.65 [95% CI: 1.2 -2.27]. CONCLUSIONS: VLBWI born to DM mothers do not appear to be at an excess risk of mortality or early morbidity, except for NEC.

  13. Clostridium difficile infection in patients hospitalized with type 2 diabetes mellitus and its impact on morbidity, mortality, and the costs of inpatient care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olanipekun, Titilope O; Salemi, Jason L; Mejia de Grubb, Maria C; Gonzalez, Sandra J; Zoorob, Roger J

    2016-06-01

    Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is often complicated by infections leading to hospitalization, increased morbidity, and mortality. Not much is known about the impact of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) on health outcomes in hospitalized patients with T2DM. We estimated the prevalence and temporal trends of CDI; evaluated the associations between CDI and in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), and the costs of inpatient care; and compared the impact of CDI with that of other infections commonly seen in patients with T2DM. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample among patients ⩾18years with T2DM and generalized linear regression was used to analyze associations and jointpoint regression for trends. The prevalence of CDI was 6.8 per 1000 hospital discharges. Patients with T2DM and CDI had increased odds of in-hospital mortality (OR, 3.63; 95% CI 3.16, 4.17). The adjusted mean LOS was higher in patients with CDI than without CDI (11.9 vs. 4.7days). That translated to average hospital costs of $23,000 and $9100 for patients with and without CDI, respectively. The adjusted risk of mortality in patients who had CDI alone (OR 3.75; 95% CI 3.18, 4.41) was similar to patients who had CDI in addition to other common infections (OR 3.25; 95% CI 2.58, 4.10). CDI is independently associated with poorer health outcomes in patients with T2DM. We recommend close surveillance for CDI in hospitalized patients and further studies to determine the cost effectiveness of screening for CDI among patients with T2DM. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Impact of the number of aspiration risk factors on mortality and recurrence in community-onset pneumonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noguchi S

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Shingo Noguchi,1 Kazuhiro Yatera,1 Tatsuji Kato,2 Yasuo Chojin,2 Yoshihisa Fujino,3 Kentaro Akata,1 Toshinori Kawanami,1 Noriho Sakamoto,4 Hiroshi Mukae4 1Department of Respiratory Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine, Tobata Kyoritsu Hospital, Kitakyushu, Japan; 3Department of Preventive Medicine and Community Health, School of Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan; 4Department of Respiratory Medicine, Unit of Translational Medicine, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki, Japan Introduction: The clinical significance of the number of aspiration risk factors in patients with pneumonia is unknown as yet. In the present study, we clarify the significance of the number of aspiration risk factors for mortality and recurrence in pneumonia patients.Methods: This study included 322 patients hospitalized with pneumonia between December 2014 and June 2016. We investigated associations between the number of aspiration risk factors present (orientation disturbance, bedridden, chronic cerebrovascular disease, dementia, sleeping medications and gastroesophageal disease and 30-day and 6-month mortality, and pneumonia recurrence within 30 days.Results: Patients were categorized by number of risk factors present into groups of 0–1, 2, 3, and 4 or more. Of a total of 322 patients, 93 (28.9% had 0–1 risk factors, 112 (34.8% had 2, 88 (27.3% had 3, and 29 (9.0% had 4 or more risk factors. The percentages of patients with recurrence of pneumonia were 13.0%, 33.0%, 43.2%, and 54.2% in the 0–1, 2, 3, and 4 or more risk factor groups, respectively. The percentages of patients with 30-day mortality were 2.2%, 5.4%, 11.4%, and 24.1%, and those of patients with 6-month mortality were 6.6%, 24.5%, 30.7%, and 50.0%, in the 0–1, 2, 3, and 4 or more risk factor groups, respectively.Conclusions: The number of

  15. Impact of structural and economic factors on hospitalization costs, inpatient mortality, and treatment type of traumatic hip fractures in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehra, Tarun; Moos, Rudolf M; Seifert, Burkhardt; Bopp, Matthias; Senn, Oliver; Simmen, Hans-Peter; Neuhaus, Valentin; Ciritsis, Bernhard

    2017-12-01

    The assessment of structural and potentially economic factors determining cost, treatment type, and inpatient mortality of traumatic hip fractures are important health policy issues. We showed that insurance status and treatment in university hospitals were significantly associated with treatment type (i.e., primary hip replacement), cost, and lower inpatient mortality respectively. The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of the structural level of hospital care and patient insurance type on treatment, hospitalization cost, and inpatient mortality in cases with traumatic hip fractures in Switzerland. The Swiss national medical statistic 2011-2012 was screened for adults with hip fracture as primary diagnosis. Gender, age, insurance type, year of discharge, hospital infrastructure level, length-of-stay, case weight, reason for discharge, and all coded diagnoses and procedures were extracted. Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression with treatment by primary hip replacement as well as inpatient mortality as dependent variables were performed. We obtained 24,678 inpatient case records from the medical statistic. Hospitalization costs were calculated from a second dataset, the Swiss national cost statistic (7528 cases with hip fractures, discharged in 2012). Average inpatient costs per case were the highest for discharges from university hospitals (US$21,471, SD US$17,015) and the lowest in basic coverage hospitals (US$18,291, SD US$12,635). Controlling for other variables, higher costs for hip fracture treatment at university hospitals were significant in multivariate regression (p < 0.001). University hospitals had a lower inpatient mortality rate than full and basic care providers (2.8% vs. both 4.0%); results confirmed in our multivariate logistic regression analysis (odds ratio (OR) 1.434, 95% CI 1.127-1.824 and OR 1.459, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.139-1.870 for full and basic coverage hospitals vs. university hospitals

  16. The dark side of the moon: Impact of moon phases on long-term survival, mortality and morbidity of surgery for lung cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuehnl A

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective Superstition is common and causes discomfiture or fear, especially in patients who have to undergo surgery for cancer. One superstition is, that moon phases influence surgical outcome. This study was performed to analyse lunar impact on the outcome following lung cancer surgery. Methods 2411 patients underwent pulmonary resection for lung cancer in the past 30 years at our institution. Intra-and postoperative complications as well as long-term follow-up data were entered in our lung-cancer database. Factors influencing mortality, morbidity and survival were analyzed. Results Rate of intra-operative complications as well as rate of post-operative morbidity and mortality was not significantly affected by moon phases. Furthermore, there was no significant impact of the lunar cycle on long-term survial. Conclusion In this study there was no evidence that outcome of surgery for lung cancer is affected by the moon. These results may help the physician to quite the mind of patients who are somewhat afraid of wrong timing of surgery with respect to the moon phases. However, patients who strongly believe in the impact of moon phase should be taken seriously and correct timing of operations should be conceded to them as long as key-date scheduling doesn't constrict evidence based treatment regimens.

  17. Impact of the NAP-1 strain on disease severity, mortality, and recurrence of healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Karri A; Johnston, Jessica E W; Wenzler, Eric; Goff, Debra A; Cook, Charles H; Balada-Llasat, Joan-Miquel; Pancholi, Preeti; Mangino, Julie E

    2017-12-01

    Studies are conflicting regarding the association of the North American pulsed-field gel electrophoresis type 1 (NAP1) strain in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and outcomes. We evaluated the association of NAP1 with healthcare-associated CDI disease severity, mortality, and recurrence at our academic medical center. Healthcare-associated CDI cases were identified from November 1, 2011 through January 31, 2013. Multivariable regression models were used to evaluate the associations of NAP1 with severe disease (based on the Hines VA severity score index), mortality, and recurrence. Among 5424 stool specimens submitted to the Clinical Microbiology Laboratory, 292 (5.4%) were positive for C. difficile by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on or after hospital day 4; 70 (24%) of these specimens also tested positive for NAP1. During the study period, 247 (85%) patients had non-severe disease and 45 (15%) patients had severe disease. Among patients with non-severe disease, 65 (26%) had NAP1 and among patients with severe disease, 5 (11%) had NAP1. After controlling for potential confounders, NAP1 was not associated with an increased likelihood of severe disease (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.93), in-hospital mortality (aOR = 1.02; 95% CI, 0.53-1.96), or recurrence (aOR = 1.16, 95% CI, 0.36-3.77). The NAP1 strain did not increase disease severity, mortality, or recurrence in this study, although the incidence of NAP1-positive healthcare associated-CDI was low. The role of strain typing in outcomes and treatment selection in patients with healthcare-associated CDI remains uncertain. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Impact of Blunted Perception of Dyspnea on Medical Care Use and Expenditure, and Mortality in Elderly People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru eEbihara

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Dyspnea is an alarming symptom responsible for millions of patient visits each year. Poor perception of dyspnea might be reasonably attributed to an inappropriately low level of fear and inadequate earlier medical treatment for both patients and physicians, resulting in subsequent intensive care. This study was conducted to evaluate medical care use and cost, and mortality according to the perception of dyspnea in community-dwelling elderly people. We analyzed baseline data from a community-based Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA in 2002. The perception of dyspnea in 479 Japanese community-dwelling elderly people with normal lung function was measured in August 2002. The sensation of dyspnea during breathing with a linear inspiratory resistance of 10, 20 and 30 cmH2O/L/s was rated using the Borg scale. According to the perception of dyspnea, we divided the elderly into tertiles and compared all hospitalizations, out-patient visits, costs and death through computerized linkage with National Health Insurance (NHI beneficiaries claims history files between August 2002 and March 2008. In-patient hospitalization days and medical care costs significantly increased with the blunted perception of dyspnea, resulting in an increase in total medical-costs with blunted perception of dyspnea. With low perception group as reference, the hazard ratios of all cause mortality were 0.65 (95%CI 0.23-1.89 for intermediate perception group and 0.31(0.10-0.97 for high perception group, indicating the mortality rate also significantly increased with the blunted perception of dyspnea after multivariates adjustment (p=0.04. The blunted perception of dyspnea is related to hospitalization, large medical costs and all-cause mortality in community-dwelling elderly people. These findings provide a rational for preventing serious illness with careful monitoring of objective conditions in the elderly.

  19. Psychiatric comorbidity and its impact on mortality in patients who attempted suicide by paraquat poisoning during 2000-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chemin Lin

    Full Text Available Paraquat poisoning is a lethal method of suicide used around the world. Although restricting its accessibility had been widely discussed, the underlying psychopathological mechanism of paraquat self-poisoning and its association with mortality have not yet been explicitly evaluated.We included all patients admitted to a tertiary general hospital in Taiwan between 2000 and 2010 following a suicide attempt by paraquat self-administration. Diagnoses were made upon psychiatric consultation based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV criteria. The risk of mortality was calculated by logistic regression with various psychiatric or medical covariates.The consultation-liaison psychiatry team assessed 157 patients who attempted suicide by paraquat poisoning. Mood disorders (54.0%, including dysthymic (26.7% and major depressive disorders (24.7%, were the most common psychiatric diagnoses among the self-poisoning patients. Among those who attempted suicide, 87 patients (58.0% died and dysthymic disorder (OR = 5.58, 95% CI: 1.13-27.69; p < 0.05 significantly increased the mortality risk after adjustment for relevant medical variables, including age, gender, severity index of paraquat poisoning (SIPP, and risk for respiratory failure.Awareness of comorbid psychiatric illnesses, especially dysthymic disorder, is vital in the prevention and treatment of suicide by paraquat poisoning.

  20. Impact of HIV on mortality among patients treated for tuberculosis in Lima, Peru: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velásquez, Gustavo E; Cegielski, J Peter; Murray, Megan B; Yagui, Martin J A; Asencios, Luis L; Bayona, Jaime N; Bonilla, César A; Jave, Hector O; Yale, Gloria; Suárez, Carmen Z; Sanchez, Eduardo; Rojas, Christian; Atwood, Sidney S; Contreras, Carmen C; Santa Cruz, Janeth; Shin, Sonya S

    2016-02-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculosis deaths have decreased worldwide over the past decade. We sought to evaluate the effect of HIV status on tuberculosis mortality among patients undergoing treatment for tuberculosis in Lima, Peru, a low HIV prevalence setting. We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients treated for tuberculosis between 2005 and 2008 in two adjacent health regions in Lima, Peru (Lima Ciudad and Lima Este). We constructed a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the effect of HIV status on mortality during tuberculosis treatment. Of 1701 participants treated for tuberculosis, 136 (8.0%) died during tuberculosis treatment. HIV-positive patients constituted 11.0% of the cohort and contributed to 34.6% of all deaths. HIV-positive patients were significantly more likely to die (25.1 vs. 5.9%, P Peru started providing free antiretroviral therapy. As HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy provision are more widely implemented for tuberculosis patients in Peru, future operational research should document the changing profile of HIV-associated tuberculosis mortality.

  1. Exposure of magnetic bacteria to simulated mobile phone-type RF radiation has no impact on mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranfield, Charles G; Wieser, Heinz Gregor; Dobson, Jon

    2003-09-01

    The interaction of mobile phone RF emissions with biogenic magnetite in the human brain has been proposed as a potential mechanism for mobile phone bioeffects. This is of particular interest in light of the discovery of magnetite in human brain tissue. Previous experiments using magnetite-containing bacteria exposed directly to emissions from a mobile phone have indicated that these emissions might be causing greater levels of cell death in these bacterial populations when compared to sham exposures. A repeat of these experiments examining only the radio frequency (RF) global system for mobile communication (GSM) component of the mobile phone signal in a well-defined waveguide system (REFLEX), shows no significant change in cell mortality compared to sham exposures. A nonmagnetite containing bacterial cell strain (CC-26) with similar genotype and phenotype to the magnetotactic bacteria was used as a control. These also showed no significant change in cell mortality between RF and sham exposed samples. Results indicate that the RF components of mobile phone exposure do not appear to be responsible for previous findings indicating cell mortality as a result of direct mobile phone exposure. A further mobile phone emission component that should be investigated is the 2-Hz magnetic field pulse generated by battery currents during periods of discontinuous transmission.

  2. Oral primary care: an analysis of its impact on the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Thiago Augusto Hernandes; Thomaz, Erika Bárbara Abreu Fonseca; da Silva, Núbia Cristina; de Sousa Queiroz, Rejane Christine; de Souza, Marta Rovery; Barbosa, Allan Claudius Queiroz; Thumé, Elaine; Rocha, João Victor Muniz; Alvares, Viviane; de Almeida, Dante Grapiuna; Vissoci, João Ricardo Nickenig; Staton, Catherine Ann; Facchini, Luiz Augusto

    2017-10-30

    Oral cancer is a potentially fatal disease, especially when diagnosed in advanced stages. In Brazil, the primary health care (PHC) system is responsible for promoting oral health in order to prevent oral diseases. However, there is insufficient evidence to assess whether actions of the PHC system have some effect on the morbidity and mortality from oral cancer. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of PHC structure and work processes on the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer after adjusting for contextual variables. An ecological, longitudinal and analytical study was carried out. Data were obtained from different secondary data sources, including three surveys that were nationally representative of Brazilian PHC and carried out over the course of 10 years (2002-2012). Data were aggregated at the state level at different times. Oral cancer incidence and mortality rates, standardized by age and gender, served as the dependent variables. Covariables (sociodemographic, structure of basic health units, and work process in oral health) were entered in the regression models using a hierarchical approach based on a theoretical model. Analysis of mixed effects with random intercept model was also conducted (alpha = 5%). The oral cancer incidence rate was positively association with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (β = 0.59; p = 0.010) and adult smokers (β = 0.29; p = 0.010). The oral cancer related mortality rate was positively associated with the proportion of of adults over 60 years (β = 0.24; p oral cancer (β = 0.02; p = 0.002). Mortality was inversely associated with the coverage of primary care teams (β = -0.01; p oral cancer, but not the incidence rate of the disease. We recommend expanding investments in PHC in order to prevent oral cancer related deaths.

  3. Impact of type 2 diabetes mellitus on in-hospital-mortality after major cardiovascular events in Spain (2002-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Miguel-Yanes, José M; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Méndez-Bailón, Manuel; de Miguel-Díez, Javier; Lopez-de-Andrés, Ana

    2017-10-10

    Diabetes mellitus has long been associated with cardiovascular events. Nevertheless, the higher burden of traditional cardiovascular risk factors reported in high-income countries is offset by a more widespread use of preventive measures and revascularization or other invasive procedures. The aim of this investigation is to describe trends in number of cases and outcomes, in-hospital mortality (IHM) and length of hospital stay (LHS), of hospital admissions for major cardiovascular events between type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and matched non-diabetes patients. Retrospective study using National Hospital Discharge Database, analyzed in 4 years 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, in Spain. We included patients (≥ 40 years old) with a primary diagnosis of myocardial infarction, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, aortic aneurysm and dissection and acute lower limb ischemia in people with T2DM. Cases were matched with controls (without T2DM) by ICD-9-CM codes, sex, age, province of residence and year. We selected 130,011 matched couples (50,427 with myocardial infarction, 60,236 with stroke, 2599 with aortic aneurysm and dissection and 16,749 with acute lower limb ischemia. Among T2DM patients we found increasing numbers of admissions overtime for stroke (10,794 in 2002 vs 17,559 in 2014), aortic aneurysm and dissection (390 vs 841) and acute lower limb ischemia (3854 vs. 4548). People were progressively older (except for myocardial infarction), had more comorbidities (especially T2DM patients), and were more frequently coded overtime for cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, obesity, hypertension, lipid disorders) and renal diseases. LHS and IHM declined overtime, though IHM only did it significantly in T2DM patients. Multivariable adjustment showed that T2DM patients had a significantly 15% higher mortality rate during admission for myocardial infarction, a 6% higher mortality for stroke, and a 6% higher mortality rate for "all cardiovascular events combined", than non

  4. The Impact of Implementation Fidelity on Mortality Under a CD4-Stratified Timing Strategy for Antiretroviral Therapy in Patients With Tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Monita R; Westreich, Daniel; Yotebieng, Marcel; Nana, Mbonze; Eron, Joseph J; Behets, Frieda; Van Rie, Annelies

    2015-05-01

    Among patients with tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus type 1, CD4-stratified initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended, with earlier ART in those with low CD4 counts. However, the impact of implementation fidelity to this recommendation is unknown. We examined a prospective cohort study of 395 adult patients diagnosed with tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus between August 2007 and November 2009 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo. ART was to be initiated after 1 month of tuberculosis treatment at a CD4 count of implementation fidelity on 6-month mortality. Observed implementation fidelity was low (46%); 54% of patients either experienced delays in ART initiation or did not initiate ART, which could be avoided under perfect implementation fidelity. The observed mortality risk was 12.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.2, 15.7); under complete (counterfactual) implementation fidelity, the mortality risk was 7.8% (95% CI: 2.4, 12.3), corresponding to a risk reduction of 4.2% (95% CI: 0.3, 8.1) and a preventable fraction of 35.1% (95% CI: 2.9, 67.9). Strategies to achieve high implementation fidelity to CD4-stratified ART timing are needed to maximize survival benefit. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Impact of diabetes mellitus and chronic liver disease on the incidence of dementia and all-cause mortality among patients with dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun Min; Lee, Yong-Ho; Han, Kyungdo; Lee, Byung-Wan; Kang, Eun Seok; Kim, Jaetaek; Cha, Bong-Soo

    2017-11-01

    This study investigated the effects of the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and/or chronic liver disease (CLD) on the incidence and prognosis of dementia during a 10-year period in Korea using a nationwide population-based dataset from the Korea National Health Insurance Service.To assess the impact of T2D and CLD on the incidence of dementia, we included subjects aged ≥60 years without dementia, T2D, and CLD from 2003 to 2005. We created another cohort for evaluating the all-cause mortality in subjects with dementia between 2003 and 2005. The participants were categorized into 4 groups: control (neither CLD nor T2D), CLD-only, T2D-only, and T2D-and-CLD groups, and they were followed up until 2013.The incidence of dementia was higher in the T2D-only group than in the control and CLD-only groups (2.78 vs. 2.04 and 2.00 per 1000 person-years). After adjustment for age, gender, and comorbid conditions, both T2D and CLD increased the risk of any type of dementia; however, the impact of CLD alone was much lower [hazard ratio (HR) 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-1.08] than that of T2D alone (HR 1.27, 95% CI: 1.27-1.28). The risk of dementia did not significantly change in patients with the co-occurrence of T2D and CLD compared to those with T2D alone. The all-cause mortality rate was the lowest in the control group (2.59 per 1000 person-years) and the highest in the T2D-and-CLD group (3.77 per 1000 person-years). Presence of T2D or CLD alone was associated with higher mortality (HR 1.46 and HR 1.21, respectively) compared with in the absence of both the diseases. Furthermore, the presence of both the diseases further significantly increased the mortality rate compared to the presence of each disease alone (HR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.65-1.69).In conclusion, this study found that the incidence of dementia was much higher in patients with T2D. CLD was associated with a modest increase in risk of dementia; however, there was no additive effect with T2D. In the

  6. The impact of antenatal care, iron-folic acid supplementation and tetanus toxoid vaccination during pregnancy on child mortality in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanvir Abir

    Full Text Available Appropriate antenatal care (ANC is an important preventive public health intervention to ensure women's and newborn health outcomes. The study aimed to investigate the impact of ANC, iron-folic acid (IFA supplementation and tetanus toxoid (TT vaccination during pregnancy on child mortality in Bangladesh.A cross-sectional study of three datasets from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys for the years 2004, 2007 and 2011 were pooled and used for the analyses. A total weighted sample of 16,721 maternal responses (5,364 for 2004; 4,872 for 2007 and 6,485 for 2011 was used. Multivariate logistic models that adjusted for cluster and sampling weights were used to examine the impact of ANC, IFA supplementation and TT vaccination during pregnancy on the death of a child aged 0-28 days (neonatal, 1-11 months (post-neonatal and 12-59 months (child.Multivariable analyses revealed that the odds of postnatal and under-5 mortality was lower in mothers who had ANC [Odds Ratio (OR = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (95% CI: 0.43-0.85], IFA supplementation [OR = 0.66, 95% CI: (0.45-0.98] and ≥2 TT vaccinations (OR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.49-0.78 for post-natal mortality; and for under-5 mortality, any form of ANC (OR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.51-0.93, IFA supplementation (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.94 and ≥2 TT vaccinations (OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.36-0.69. When combined, TT vaccination with IFA supplementation, and TT vaccination without IFA supplementation were protective across all groups.The study found that ANC, IFA supplementation, and TT vaccination during pregnancy reduced the likelihood of child mortality in Bangladesh. The findings suggest that considerable gains in improving child survival could be achieved through ensuring universal coverage of ANC, promoting TT vaccination during pregnancy and IFA supplementation among pregnant women in Bangladesh.

  7. Prospective association of the Mediterranean diet with cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality and its population impact in a non-Mediterranean population: the EPIC-Norfolk study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Tammy Y N; Wareham, Nicholas J; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Imamura, Fumiaki; Forouhi, Nita G

    2016-09-29

    Despite convincing evidence in the Mediterranean region, the cardiovascular benefit of the Mediterranean diet is not well established in non-Mediterranean countries and the optimal criteria for defining adherence are unclear. The population attributable fraction (PAF) of adherence to this diet is also unknown. In the UK-based EPIC-Norfolk prospective cohort, we evaluated habitual diets assessed at baseline (1993-1997) and during follow-up (1998-2000) using food-frequency questionnaires (n = 23,902). We estimated a Mediterranean diet score (MDS) using cut-points projected from the Mediterranean dietary pyramid, and also three other pre-existing MDSs. Using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression with repeated measures of MDS and covariates, we examined prospective associations between each MDS with incident cardiovascular diseases (CVD) by 2009 and mortality by 2013, and estimated PAF for each outcome attributable to low MDS. We observed 7606 incident CVD events (2818/100,000 person-years) and 1714 CVD deaths (448/100,000). The MDS based on the Mediterranean dietary pyramid was significantly associated with lower incidence of the cardiovascular outcomes, with hazard ratios (95 % confidence intervals) of 0.95 (0.92-0.97) per one standard deviation for incident CVD and 0.91 (0.87-0.96) for CVD mortality. Associations were similar for composite incident ischaemic heart disease and all-cause mortality. Other pre-existing MDSs showed similar, but more modest associations. PAF due to low dietary pyramid based MDS (Mediterranean diet was associated with lower CVD incidence and mortality in the UK. This diet has an important population health impact for the prevention of CVD.

  8. The Prevalence, Correlates, and Impact on Cardiac Mortality of Right Ventricular Dysfunction in Nonischemic Cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueschner, Andreas; Chattranukulchai, Pairoj; Heitner, John F; Shah, Dipan J; Hayes, Brenda; Rehwald, Wolfgang; Parker, Michele A; Kim, Han W; Judd, Robert M; Kim, Raymond J; Klem, Igor

    2017-10-01

    This study sought to determine the prevalence, correlates, and impact on cardiac mortality of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction in nonischemic cardiomyopathy. Current heart failure guidelines place little emphasis on RV assessment due to limited available data on determinants of RV function, mechanisms leading to its failure, and relation to outcomes. We prospectively studied 423 patients with cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). The pre-specified study endpoint was cardiac mortality. In 100 patients, right heart catheterization was performed as clinically indicated. During a median follow-up time of 6.2 years (interquartile range: 2.9 to 7.6 years), 101 patients (24%) died of cardiac causes. CMR right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF) was a strong independent predictor of cardiac mortality after adjustment for age, heart failure-functional class, blood pressure, heart rate, serum sodium, serum creatinine, myocardial scar, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Patients with the lowest quintile of RVEF had a nearly 5-fold higher cardiac mortality risk than did patients with the highest quintile (hazard ratio: 4.68; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.43 to 9.02; p right atrial pressure (r = -0.32; p = 0.001), pulmonary artery pressure (r = -0.34; p = 0.0005), transpulmonary gradient (r = -0.28; p = 0.006) but not with pulmonary wedge pressure (r = -0.15; p = 0.13). In multivariable logistic regression analysis of CMR, clinical, and hemodynamic data the strongest predictors of right ventricular dysfunction were LVEF (odds ratio [OR]: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.78 to 0.92; p Right ventricular dysfunction is strongly associated with both indices of intrinsic myocardial contractility and increased afterload from pulmonary vascular dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Comparing different policy scenarios to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed foods in UK: impact on cardiovascular disease mortality using a modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Patricia V L; Baraldi, Larissa Galastri; Moubarac, Jean-Claude; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Newton, Alex; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The global burden of non-communicable diseases partly reflects growing exposure to ultra-processed food products (UPPs). These heavily marketed UPPs are cheap and convenient for consumers and profitable for manufacturers, but contain high levels of salt, fat and sugars. This study aimed to explore the potential mortality reduction associated with future policies for substantially reducing ultra-processed food intake in the UK. We obtained data from the UK Living Cost and Food Survey and from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey. By the NOVA food typology, all food items were categorized into three groups according to the extent of food processing: Group 1 describes unprocessed/minimally processed foods. Group 2 comprises processed culinary ingredients. Group 3 includes all processed or ultra-processed products. Using UK nutrient conversion tables, we estimated the energy and nutrient profile of each food group. We then used the IMPACT Food Policy model to estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality from improved nutrient intakes reflecting shifts from processed or ultra-processed to unprocessed/minimally processed foods. We then conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulation. Approximately 175,000 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths might be expected in 2030 if current mortality patterns persist. However, halving the intake of Group 3 (processed) foods could result in approximately 22,055 fewer CVD related deaths in 2030 (minimum estimate 10,705, maximum estimate 34,625). An ideal scenario in which salt and fat intakes are reduced to the low levels observed in Group 1 and 2 could lead to approximately 14,235 (minimum estimate 6,680, maximum estimate 22,525) fewer coronary deaths and approximately 7,820 (minimum estimate 4,025, maximum estimate 12,100) fewer stroke deaths, comprising almost 13% mortality reduction. This study shows a substantial potential for reducing the cardiovascular disease burden through a healthier food system

  10. The Risk of Acute Kidney Injury and Its Impact on 30-Day and Long-Term Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrin Gebauer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI is widely used in high risk patients (pts with aortic stenosis. Underlying chronic kidney disease implicates a high risk of postprocedural acute kidney injury (AKI. We analyzed its occurrence, impact on hospital stay, and mortality. Methods. 150 consecutive pts underwent TAVI in our institution (mean age 81 ± 7 years; logistic EuroSCORE 24 ± 15%. AKI definition was a creatinine rise of 26.5 μmol/L or more within 48 hours postprocedural. Ten patients on chronic hemodialysis were excluded. Results. AKI occurred in 28 pts (20%. Baseline creatinine was higher in AKI pts (126.4 ± 59.2 μmol/L versus 108.7 ± 45.1 μmol/L, P=0.09. Contrast media use was distributed evenly. Both, 30-day mortality (29% versus 7%, P<0.0001 and long-term mortality (43% versus 18%, P<0.0001 were higher; hospital stay was longer in AKI pts (20 ± 12 versus 15 ± 10 days, P=0.03. Predicted renal failure calculated STS Score was similar (8.0 ± 5.0% [AKI] versus 7.1 ± 4.0% [non-AKI], P=0.32 and estimated lower renal failure rates than observed. Conclusion. AKI remains a frequent complication with increased mortality in TAVI pts. Careful identification of risk factors and development of more suitable risk scores are essential.

  11. Susceptibility to Heat-Related Fluid and Electrolyte Imbalance Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, Georgia, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Heidari

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Identification of populations susceptible to heat effects is critical for targeted prevention and more accurate risk assessment. Fluid and electrolyte imbalance (FEI may provide an objective indicator of heat morbidity. Data on daily ambient temperature and FEI emergency department (ED visits were collected in Atlanta, Georgia, USA during 1993–2012. Associations of warm-season same-day temperatures and FEI ED visits were estimated using Poisson generalized linear models. Analyses explored associations between FEI ED visits and various temperature metrics (maximum, minimum, average, and diurnal change in ambient temperature, apparent temperature, and heat index modeled using linear, quadratic, and cubic terms to allow for non-linear associations. Effect modification by potential determinants of heat susceptibility (sex; race; comorbid congestive heart failure, kidney disease, and diabetes; and neighborhood poverty and education levels was assessed via stratification. Higher warm-season ambient temperature was significantly associated with FEI ED visits, regardless of temperature metric used. Stratified analyses suggested heat-related risks for all populations, but particularly for males. This work highlights the utility of FEI as an indicator of heat morbidity, the health threat posed by warm-season temperatures, and the importance of considering susceptible populations in heat-health research.

  12. Heat-related illness in Washington State agriculture and forestry sectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spector, June T; Krenz, Jennifer; Rauser, Edmund; Bonauto, David K

    2014-08-01

    We sought to describe heat-related illness (HRI) in agriculture and forestry workers in Washington State. Demographic and clinical Washington State Fund workers' compensation agriculture and forestry HRI claims data (1995-2009) and Washington Agriculture Heat Rule citations (2009-2012) were accessed and described. Maximum daily temperature (Tmax) and Heat Index (HImax) were estimated by claim date and location using AgWeatherNet's weather station network. There were 84 Washington State Fund agriculture and forestry HRI claims and 60 Heat Rule citations during the study period. HRI claims and citations were most common in crop production and support subsectors. The mean Tmax (HImax) was 95°F (99°F) for outdoor HRI claims. Potential HRI risk factors and HRI-related injuries were documented for some claims. Agriculture and forestry HRI cases are characterized by potential work-related, environmental, and personal risk factors. Further work is needed to elucidate the relationship between heat exposure and occupational injuries. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Evaluating penalized logistic regression models to predict Heat-Related Electric grid stress days

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bramer, L. M.; Rounds, J.; Burleyson, C. D.; Fortin, D.; Hathaway, J.; Rice, J.; Kraucunas, I.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the conditions associated with stress on the electricity grid is important in the development of contingency plans for maintaining reliability during periods when the grid is stressed. In this paper, heat-related grid stress and the relationship with weather conditions is examined using data from the eastern United States. Penalized logistic regression models were developed and applied to predict stress on the electric grid using weather data. The inclusion of other weather variables, such as precipitation, in addition to temperature improved model performance. Several candidate models and datasets were examined. A penalized logistic regression model fit at the operation-zone level was found to provide predictive value and interpretability. Additionally, the importance of different weather variables observed at different time scales were examined. Maximum temperature and precipitation were identified as important across all zones while the importance of other weather variables was zone specific. The methods presented in this work are extensible to other regions and can be used to aid in planning and development of the electrical grid.

  14. Posttransplant De Novo Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Renal Transplant Recipients: Its Impact on Morbidity and Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanif, Farina M; Laeeq, S Muddasir; Luck, Nasir Hassan; Aziz, Tahir; Abbas, Zaigham; Mubarak, Muhammed

    2017-02-01

    The clinical effects of hepatitis C virus infection acquired after transplant have not been thoroughly studied. We aimed to study hepatitis C virus-related morbidity and mortality with de novo hepatitis C virus infection after renal transplant. Data from mortality files were retrospectively collected from January 2011 to January 2015. Patients were divided into 2 groups: hepatitis C virus positive (group A) and hepatitis C virus negative (group B). Eighty-one patients were included, with median duration of survival of 39 months after transplant. In group A (32 patients), 78.1% of patients were males, with mean age of 36.83 ± 9.15 years. The mean survival duration was better in group A than in group B (67.59 ± 67.1 vs 58.10 ± 59.6 mo; P = .58). Acute cellular rejection was 25% in group A versus 20.4% in group B, whereas chronic allograft nephropathy was 20.4% for group A versus 18.4% for group B. Hepatitis C virus-related death was observed in 7 patients (21.9%). Infection was the main cause of death, with 40.6% of patients in group A versus 53% of patients in group B. On multivariate analyses, better patient survival was associated with greater interval of acquiring HCV after transplant (P = .038). HCV infection acquired after renal transplant is not associated with increased HCV-related mortality, and prognosis is related to the time interval of acquiring infection after transplant.

  15. Impact of Current Antipsychotic Medications on Comparative Mortality and Adverse Events in People With Parkinson Disease Psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Clive; Isaacson, Stuart; Mills, Roger; Williams, Hilde; Corbett, Anne; Coate, Bruce; Pahwa, Rajesh; Rascol, Olivier; Burn, David J

    2015-10-01

    To establish the mortality risk and adverse events associated with the use of atypical antipsychotic medications in people with Parkinson disease psychosis (PDP) in a clinically defined trial cohort. Post hoc analysis of data from a multicenter, open-label extension study of pimavanserin comparing people taking and not taking current antipsychotics. Primary and secondary care medical centers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and India. A total of 459 people with PDP enrolled in the extension study. Participants were between ages 30 and 80 years, and had an established diagnosis of idiopathic Parkinson disease and moderate to severe psychosis. Participants were categorized into 2 groups: those receiving concomitant antipsychotic medications ("concurrent APD") and those who did not take antipsychotic medications at any time during the study ("no APD"). Participants were receiving 40 mg pimavanserin daily in addition to concurrent antipsychotics and Parkinson disease medications. Safety assessments at 2 weeks; 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months; and every 6 months thereafter, including evaluation of adverse events (AEs), vital signs, weight, physical examinations, 12-lead electrocardiograms, clinical laboratory tests (serum chemistry, hematology, and urinalysis), and the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale Parts II and III (UPDRS-II+III, activities of daily living and motor impairment, respectively). Differences between participants taking and not taking current antipsychotics were evaluated using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). There was significant increase in the mortality rate for participants taking concurrent antipsychotics compared with the group not taking antipsychotic medications (IRR 4.20, 95% CI 2.13-7.96). Participants who received a concurrent antipsychotic were also significantly more likely to experience overall a serious AE (IRR 2.95, 95% CI 2.02-4.24), any antipsychotic-related event (IRR 1.66, 95% CI 1

  16. Impact of heart rate in atrial fibrillation versus sinus rhythm on mortality in octogenarian patients with acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shijun; Barywani, Salim; Fu, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Association of heart rate (HR) with mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and aged ≥ 80 years are underrepresented in clinical trials. We therefore aimed to investigate the association of HR in atrial fibrillation (AF) versus sinus rhythm (SR) with all-cause mortality in octogenarian patients with ACS. A total of 336 patients with ACS patients and aged ≥ 80 years were enrolled into the current study. The end point of interest was death from any cause. Association of HR in AF versus SR with mortality was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curve following log-rank test and multivariable Cox regression analysis. In total, 63 (87.5%) of patients with AF were dead and 147 (59.8%) of patients with SR were dead during the follow-up period. The best cut-off was 80 bpm, with a sensitivity of 62% and specificity of 66%. HR ≤ 80 bpm in SR but not in AF was associated with better outcome as compared with HR > 80 bpm (Chi-Square = 26.55, Log rank P < 0.001). In SR subgroup, the hazard ratios of HR ≤ 80 bpm were 0.51(95% CI 0.37-0.70, P < 0.001) adjusted for age, 0.46 (95%CI 0.33-0.63, P < 0.001) adjusted for gender, 0.62 (95%CI 0.42- 0.93, P = 0.020) adjusted for multivariables respectively. In AF subgroup, the hazard ratios of HR ≤ 80 bpm were 0.83(95% CI 0.49-1.38, P = 0.464) adjusted for age, 0.96 (95%CI 0.59-1.58, P = 0.882) adjusted for gender, 0.72(95% CI 0.41-1.26, P = 0.249) adjusted for multivariables respectively. The current study demonstrates that heart rate is an independent prognostic predictor for all-cause mortality, and HR ≤ 80 bpm is associated with improved outcome in SR but not in AF in octogenarian patients with ACS.

  17. The impact of socioeconomic factors on 30-day mortality following elective colorectal cancer surgery: A nationwide study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, B L; Osler, M; Harling, H

    2009-01-01

    We investigated postoperative mortality in relation to socioeconomic status (SES) in electively operated colorectal cancer patients, and evaluated whether social inequalities were explained by factors related to patient, disease or treatment. Data from the nationwide database of Danish Colorectal...... Cancer Group were linked to individual socioeconomic information in Statistics Denmark. Patients born before 1921 and those having local surgical or palliative procedures were excluded. A total of 7160 patients, operated on in the period 2001-2004, were included, of whom 342 (4.8%) died within 30 days...

  18. Intravenous lignocain 2 percent (plain) efficacy in attenuation of stress response to laryngoscopy and endotracheal intubation with impact on in-hospital morbidity and mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, M.S.; Qureshi, M.N.; Uddin, S.S.; Hussain, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of plain lignocain in attenuation of stress response to laryngoscopy and endotracheal intubation with impact on in-hospital mortality or morbidity. Study Design: A randomized control trial. Place and Duration of Study: Our study was carried out from December 2013-14, at tertiary-care hospital. Material and Methods: Patients (n=100 total) were randomized, using non-probability convenient sampling, dividing the population in two groups. Group A (n=50) as control, and in group B (n=50) Injection lignocain plain 2 percent at the rate 1.5 mg/kg was used 3 minutes prior to intubation. Both the groups were observed for changes in hemodynamic parameters i.e. heart rate (HR) systolic and diastolic blood pressure, Mean Arterial Pressure for every minute after baseline (0) and for 5 consecutive minutes (1, 2, 3, 4, and 5). Deviation of >20 percent from baseline was considered significant. The mortality (death within hospital, irrespective of cause) and morbidity (defined as emergence of 4 condition as hypertensive encephalopathy, Acute Coronary Syndrome, Lab proven Myocardial Infarction and negative pulmonary edema) within 10 days of hospitalization were noted. Results: Statistically significant (p-value extremely significant at confidence interval of 98 degrees) results were obtained in the effect of study drug; however, 10 days of hospitalization remained inconclusive for emerging morbidity categories strictly due to the intubation reflexes. We consider few technicalities in peri-operative management resulted in such events. Conclusion: Lignocain is effective in blunting the pressor response towards laryngoscopy and intubation. However the impact on mortality/ morbidity for four conditions remained inconclusive. (author)

  19. The tsunami's impact on mortality in a town severely damaged by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagata, Satoko; Teramoto, Chie; Okamoto, Reiko; Koide, Keiko; Nishida, Masumi; Suzuki, Ruriko; Nomura, Michie; Tada, Toshiko; Kishi, Emiko; Sakai, Yoko; Jojima, Noriko; Kusano, Emiko; Iwamoto, Saori; Saito, Miki; Murashima, Sachiyo

    2014-07-01

    This study identifies the relationship between tsunami damage and mortality through a demographic pyramid of a town severely damaged by the tsunami following the Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011. It uses cross-sectional data collection. Volunteers visited all households, including shelters, and asked residents about the whereabouts of family members and neighbours. The information was collated with lists of evacuees and the dead to confirm the whereabouts of all residents about 50 days after the disaster. Demographic pyramids for the whole population based on pre- and post-disaster data were drawn. In all, 1,412 (8.8 per cent) were dead or missing, 60.2 per cent of whom were aged 65 and over and 37.5 per cent aged 75 and over, suggesting that the very old should be located beyond the reach of tsunamis. The mortality rate of children was lower than that in other studies, which may indicate the efficacy of disaster evacuation drills. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  20. Impact of organised mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in a case–control and cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinävaara, Sirpa; Sarkeala, Tytti; Anttila, Ahti

    2016-01-01

    Background: The usefulness of case–control studies has been questioned. Our aim was to evaluate the long-term effect of screening on breast cancer mortality within the population-based mammography programme in Finland using a case–control design, and to compare the analyses with the earlier cohort study. Methods: The cases were women invited to screening, diagnosed and died from breast cancer in 1992–2011 while being 50–84 years at death. We chose 10 controls for each case with non-restrictive eligibility criteria. Our data included 1907 cases and 18 978 matched controls. We analysed associations between the screening participation and the risk of breast cancer death using the conditional Cox proportional hazards model. The effect estimates were corrected for self-selection bias. Results: An overall effect of screening was 0.67 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49–0.90), and that remained unchanged over time. Analyses with matching criteria comparable to the cohort study yielded an effect (0.70, 95% CI: 0.49–1.00) in 1992–2003 similar to that of the previous cohort analysis (0.72, 95% CI: 0.56–0.88). Conclusions: Organised mammography screening decreases mortality from breast cancer by 33% among the participants. If made comparable, a case–cohort study can yield effect estimates similar to a cohort study. PMID:27010748

  1. [Estimation of the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases mortality, life expectancy and the labor force lost in China in 2030].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, X Y; Li, Y C; Liu, J M; Liu, Y N; Liu, S W; Qi, J L; Zhou, M G

    2017-12-06

    Objective: To estimate the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) mortality, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost in China in 2030. Methods: We used the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, according to the correlation between death of NCDs and exposure of risk factors and the comparative risk assessment theory, to calculate population attributable fraction (PAF) and disaggregate deaths of NCDs into parts attributable and un-attributable. We used proportional change model to project risk factors exposure and un-attributable deaths of NCDs in 2030, then to get deaths of NCDs in 2030. Simulated scenarios according to the goals of global main NCDs risk factors control proposed by WHO were constructed to calculate the impact of risk factors control on NCDs death, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost. Results: If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, compared to the numbers (8.499 million) and mortality rate (613.5/100 000) of NCDs in 2013, the death number (12.161 million) and mortality rate (859.2/100 000) would increase by 43.1% and 40.0% respectively in 2030, among which, ischemic stroke (increasing by 103.3% for death number and 98.8% for mortality rate) and ischemic heart disease (increasing by 85.0% for death number and 81.0% for mortality rate) would increase most quickly. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, the NCDs deaths would reduce 2 631 thousands. If only one risk factor gets the goal, blood pressure (1 484 thousands NCDs deaths reduction), smoking (717 thousands reduction) and BMI (274 thousands reduction) would be the most important factors affecting NCDs death. Blood pressure control would have greater impact on ischemic heart disease (662 thousands reduction) and hemorrhagic stroke (449 thousands reduction). Smoking control would have the greatest effect on lung cancer (251 thousands reduction) and chronic obstructive pulmonary

  2. Thermal extremes mortality risk assessment in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Canário

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of heat waves on mortality has been the subject of numerous studies and the focus of attention of various national and international governmental bodies. In the summer of 2003 alone, which was exceptionally hot, the number of deaths in 12 European countries increased by 70,000. The overall trend of warming will lead to an increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and to an increase in heat related mortality. The need to assess the risk of death due to extreme heat, at a detailed spatial scale, has determined the implementation of a research project based on a general model of risk for potentially destructive natural phenomena; the model uses the relationship between hazard and vulnerability and was designed primarily for urban areas. The major hazardous meteorological variables are those that determine the thermal complex (air temperature, radiative temperature, wind and humidity and the variables related to air quality (mainly ozone and Particulate matter. Vulnerability takes into account the population sensitivity (at various spatial scales and their exposure to thermal extremes.

  3. Visualizing tissue molecular structure of a black type of canola (Brassica) seed with a thick seed coat after heat-related processing in a chemical way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Peiqiang

    2013-02-20

    Heat-related processing of cereal grains, legume seeds, and oil seeds could be used to improve nutrient availability in ruminants. However, different types of processing may have a different impact on intrinsic structure of tissues. To date, there is little research on structure changes after processing within intact tissues. The synchrotron-based molecular imaging technique enables us to detect inherent structure change on a molecular level. The objective of this study was to visualize tissue of black-type canola (Brassica) seed with a thick seed coat after heat-related processing in a chemical way using the synchrotron imaging technique. The results showed that the chemical images of protein amides were obtained through the imaging technique for the raw, wet, and dry heated black type of canola seed tissues. It seems that different types of processing have a different impact on the protein spectral profile in the black type of canola tissues. Wet heating had a greater impact on the protein α-helix to β-sheet ratio than dry heating. Both dry and wet heating resulted in different patterns in amide I, the second derivative, and FSD spectra. However, the exact differences in the tissue images are relatively difficult to be obtained through visual comparison. Future studies should focus on (1) comparing the response and sensitivity of canola seeds to various processing methods between the yellow-type and black-type of canola seeds; (2) developing a sensitive method to compare the image difference between tissues and between treatments; (3) developing a method to link images to nutrient digestion, and (4) revealing how structure changes affect nutrient absorption in humans and animals.

  4. Impact of malaria interventions on child mortality in endemic African settings: comparison and alignment between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenromp, Eline; Hamilton, Matthew; Sanders, Rachel; Mahiané, Guy; Briët, Olivier J T; Smith, Thomas; Winfrey, William; Walker, Neff; Stover, John

    2017-11-07

    In malaria-endemic countries, malaria prevention and treatment are critical for child health. In the context of intervention scale-up and rapid changes in endemicity, projections of intervention impact and optimized program scale-up strategies need to take into account the consequent dynamics of transmission and immunity. The new Spectrum-Malaria program planning tool was used to project health impacts of Insecticide-Treated mosquito Nets (ITNs) and effective management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CMU), among other interventions, on malaria infection prevalence, case incidence and mortality in children 0-4 years, 5-14 years of age and adults. Spectrum-Malaria uses statistical models fitted to simulations of the dynamic effects of increasing intervention coverage on these burdens as a function of baseline malaria endemicity, seasonality in transmission and malaria intervention coverage levels (estimated for years 2000 to 2015 by the World Health Organization and Malaria Atlas Project). Spectrum-Malaria projections of proportional reductions in under-five malaria mortality were compared with those of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, for given (standardized) scenarios of ITN and/or CMU scale-up over 2016-2030. Proportional mortality reductions over the first two years following scale-up of ITNs from near-zero baselines to moderately higher coverages align well between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria -as expected since both models were fitted to cluster-randomized ITN trials in moderate-to-high-endemic settings with 2-year durations. For further scale-up from moderately high ITN coverage to near-universal coverage (as currently relevant for strategic planning for many countries), Spectrum-Malaria predicts smaller additional ITN impacts than LiST, reflecting progressive saturation. For CMU, especially in the longer term (over 2022-2030) and for lower-endemic settings (like Zambia), Spectrum-Malaria projects larger

  5. Antenatal treatment with corticosteroids for preterm neonates: impact on the incidence of respiratory distress syndrome and intra-hospital mortality

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    Joice Fabíola Meneguel

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Although the benefits of antenatal corticosteroids have been widely demonstrated in other countries, there are few studies among Brazilian newborn infants. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of antenatal corticosteroids on the incidence of respiratory distress syndrome and intra-hospital mortality among neonates with a gestational age of less than 34 weeks. TYPE OF STUDY: Cross-sectional. SETTING: A tertiary-care hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Neonates exposed to any dose of antenatal corticosteroids for fetal maturation up to 7 days before delivery, and newborns paired by sex, birth weight, gestational age and time of birth that were not exposed to antenatal corticosteroids. The sample obtained consisted of 205 exposed newborns, 205 non-exposed and 39 newborns exposed to antenatal corticosteroids for whom it was not possible to find an unexposed pair. PROCEDURES: Analysis of maternal and newborn records. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: The primary clinical outcomes for the two groups were compared: the incidence of respiratory distress syndrome and intra-hospital mortality; as well as secondary outcomes related to neonatal morbidity. RESULTS: Antenatal corticosteroids reduced the occurrence of respiratory distress syndrome (OR: 0.33; 95% CI: 0.21-0.51 and the protective effect persisted when adjusted for weight, gestational age and the presence of asphyxia (adjusted OR: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.17-0.43. The protective effect could also be detected through the reduction in the need for and number of doses of exogenous surfactant utilized and the number of days of mechanical ventilation needed for the newborns exposed to antenatal corticosteroids. Their use also reduced the occurrence of intra-hospital deaths (OR: 0.51: 95% CI: 0.38-0.82. However, when adjusted for weight, gestational age, presence of prenatal asphyxia, respiratory distress syndrome, necrotizing enterocolitis and use of mechanical ventilation, the antenatal corticosteroids did not maintain the

  6. Cost-effectiveness analysis and mortality impact estimation of scaling-up pregnancy test kits in Madagascar, Ethiopia and Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolesar, Robert J; Audibert, Martine; Comfort, Alison B

    2017-07-01

    Cost-effective, innovative approaches are needed to accelerate progress towards ending preventable infant, child and maternal mortality. To inform policy decisions, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of adding urine pregnancy test kits to the maternal and reproductive services package offered at the community level in Madagascar, Ethiopia and Malawi. We used a decision tree model to compare the intervention with the status quo for each country. We also completed single factor sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations with 10 000 iterations to generate the probability distribution of the estimates and uncertainty limits. Among a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 women of reproductive age, we estimate that over a 1-year period, the intervention would save 26, 35 and 48 lives in Madagascar, Ethiopia, and Malawi, respectively. The Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for the cost per life saved varies by country: $2311 [95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): $1699; $3454] in Madagascar; $2969 [UI: $2260; $5041] in Ethiopia and $1228 [UI: $918; $1777] in Malawi. This equates to an average cost per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted of $36.28, $47.95 and $21.92, respectively. Based on WHO criteria and a comparison with other maternal, newborn, and child health interventions, we conclude that the addition of urine pregnancy tests to an existing community health worker maternal and reproductive services package is highly cost-effective in all three countries. To optimize uptake of family planning and antenatal care services and, in turn, accelerate the reduction of mortality and DALYs, decision makers and program planners should consider adding urine pregnancy tests to the community-level package of services. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Significant impact of electrical storm on mortality in patients with structural heart disease and an implantable cardiac defibrillator.

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    Noda, Takashi; Kurita, Takashi; Nitta, Takashi; Chiba, Yasutaka; Furushima, Hiroshi; Matsumoto, Naoki; Toyoshima, Takeshi; Shimizu, Akihiko; Mitamura, Hideo; Okumura, Ken; Ohe, Tohru; Aizawa, Yoshifusa

    2018-03-15

    Electrical storm (E-Storm), defined as multiple episodes of ventricular arrhythmias within a short period of time, is an important clinical problem in patients with an implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD) including cardiac resynchronization therapy devices capable of defibrillation. The detailed clinical aspects of E-Storm in large populations especially for non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), however, remain unclear. This study was performed to elucidate the detailed clinical aspects of E-Storm, such as its predictors and prevalence among patients with structural heart disease including DCM. We analyzed the data of the Nippon Storm Study, which was a prospective observational study involving 1570 patients enrolled from 48 ICD centers. For the purpose of this study, we evaluated 1274 patients with structural heart disease, including 482 (38%) patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and 342 (27%) patients with DCM. During a median follow-up of 28months (interquartile range: 23 to 33months), E-Storm occurred in 84 (6.6%) patients. The incidence of E-Storm was not significantly different between patients with IHD and patients with DCM (log-rank p=0.52). Proportional hazard regression analyses showed that ICD implantation for secondary prevention of sudden cardiac death (p=0.0001) and QRS width (p=0.015) were the independent risk factors for E-storm. In a comparison between patients with and without E-Storm, survival curves after adjustment for clinical characteristics showed a significant difference in mortality. E-Storm was associated with subsequent mortality in patients with structural heart disease including DCM. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Impact of cesarean section in a private health service in Brazil: indications and neonatal morbidity and mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, M A; Araujo Júnior, E; Camano, L; Peixoto, A B; Martins, W P; Mattar, R

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate the incidence of, indications of, and maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality rates in cesarean sections in a private health service in Brazil. Retrospective and observational study. Private health service in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. The patients were interviewed using a structured questionnaire to determine maternal age, gestational age at the time of delivery, number of previous deliveries, type of delivery performed, duration of labor, indications for cesarean delivery, point at which cesarean section was performed, physician responsible for delivery, and maternal morbidity, fetal morbidity, and fetal mortality rates. A descriptive analysis of the data was conducted. Students t-test was performed to compare quantitative variables, and Fishers exact test was performed for categorical variables. A total of 584 patients were evaluated. Of these, 91.8% (536/584) had cesarean sections, while only 8.2% (48/584) had vaginal deliveries. There were no reports of forceps-assisted vaginal deliveries. In 87.49% of the deliveries, the number of gestational weeks was more than 37. In terms of indications for performing cesarean section, 48.5% were for maternal causes, 30.41% were for fetal causes, and 17.17% were elective. Maternal re-hospitalization due to puerperal complications was necessary in 10.42% of the vaginal deliveries and in 0.93% of the cesarean deliveries (pcesarean section. Of the newborns with complications at birth, 40.59% (41/101) had to be admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. There were no cases of maternal death. There were seven cases of fetal/neonatal death. We observed that the vast majority of deliveries in the private sector are performed by cesarean section, without labor, and by the patients obstetrician. We found no serious maternal complications or increased neonatal morbidity rates associated with cesarean section.

  9. Impact of maternal diabetes mellitus on mortality and morbidity of very low birth weight infants: a multicenter Latin America study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Grandi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To compare mortality and morbidity in very low birth weight infants (VLBWI born to women with and without diabetes mellitus (DM. Methods: This was a cohort study with retrospective data collection (2001–2010, n = 11.991 from the NEOCOSUR network. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the outcome of neonatal mortality and morbidity as a function of maternal DM. Women with no DM served as the reference group. Results: The rate of maternal DM was 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5-3.1, but a significant (p = 0.019 increase was observed between 2001-2005 (2.4%, 2.1-2.8 and 2006-2010 (3.2%, 2.8-3.6. Mothers with DM were more likely to have received a complete course of prenatal steroids than those without DM. Infants of diabetic mothers had a slightly higher gestational age and birth weight than infants of born to non-DM mothers. Distribution of mean birth weight Z-scores, small for gestational age status, and Apgar scores were similar. There were no significant differences between the two groups regarding respiratory distress syndrome, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, and patent ductus arteriosus. Delivery room mortality, total mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, and early-onset sepsis rates were significantly lower in the diabetic group, whereas necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC was significantly higher in infants born to DM mothers. In the logistic regression analysis, NEC grades 2-3 was the only condition independently associated with DM (adjusted OR: 1.65 [95% CI: 1.2 -2.27]. Conclusions: VLBWI born to DM mothers do not appear to be at an excess risk of mortality or early morbidity, except for NEC. Resumo: Objetivos: Comparar mortalidade e morbidade em crianças de muito baixo peso (MBP filhas de mães com e sem diabetes mellitus (DM. Métodos: Estudo de coorte com coleta retrospectiva de dados (2001 - 2010, n = 11.991 da rede NEOCOSUR. Odds ratios

  10. Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

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    Brad Seely

    Full Text Available Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.

  11. Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive; Scoullar, Kim

    2015-01-01

    Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.

  12. Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ragettli, Martina S; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

    2016-01-01

    In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated. Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions. 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more. Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.

  13. Baseline characteristics and treatment of patients in prospective comparison of ARNI with ACEI to determine impact on global mortality and morbidity in heart failure trial (PARADIGM-HF).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMurray, John J V; Packer, Milton; Desai, Akshay S; Gong, Jianjian; Lefkowitz, Martin; Rizkala, Adel R; Rouleau, Jean L; Shi, Victor C; Solomon, Scott D; Swedberg, Karl; Zile, Michael R

    2014-07-01

    To describe the baseline characteristics and treatment of the patients randomized in the PARADIGM-HF (Prospective comparison of ARNi with ACEi to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and morbidity in Heart Failure) trial, testing the hypothesis that the strategy of simultaneously blocking the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system and augmenting natriuretic peptides with LCZ696 200 mg b.i.d. is superior to enalapril 10 mg b.i.d. in reducing mortality and morbidity in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. Key demographic, clinical and laboratory findings, along with baseline treatment, are reported and compared with those of patients in the treatment arm of the Studies Of Left Ventricular Dysfunction (SOLVD-T) and more contemporary drug and device trials in heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. The mean age of the 8442 patients in PARADIGM-HF is 64 (SD 11) years and 78% are male, which is similar to SOLVD-T and more recent trials. Despite extensive background therapy with beta-blockers (93% patients) and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (60%), patients in PARADIGM-HF have persisting symptoms and signs, reduced health related quality of life, a low LVEF (mean 29 ± SD 6%) and elevated N-terminal-proB type-natriuretic peptide levels (median 1608 inter-quartile range 886-3221 pg/mL). PARADIGM-HF will determine whether LCZ696 is more beneficial than enalapril when added to other disease-modifying therapies and if further augmentation of endogenous natriuretic peptides will reduce morbidity and mortality in heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. © 2014 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.

  14. Reducing the impact of pesticides on biological control in Australian vineyards: pesticide mortality and fecundity effects on an indicator species, the predatory mite Euseius victoriensis (Acari: Phytoseiidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Martina B; Cole, Peter; Kobelt, Amanda; Horne, Paul A; Altmann, James; Wratten, Stephen D; Yen, Alan L

    2010-12-01

    Laboratory bioassays on detached soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr., leaves were used to test 23 fungicides, five insecticides, two acaricides, one herbicide, and two adjuvants on a key Australian predatory mite species Euseius victoriensis (Womersley) in "worst-case scenario" direct overspray assays. Zero- to 48-h-old juveniles, their initial food, and water supply were sprayed to runoff with a Potter tower; spinosad and wettable sulfur residues also were tested. Tests were standardized to deliver a pesticide dose comparable with commercial application of highest label rates at 1,000 liter/ha. Cumulative mortality was assessed 48 h, 4 d, and 7 d after spraying. Fecundity was assessed for 7 d from start of oviposition. No significant mortality or fecundity effects were detected for the following compounds at single-use application at 1,000 liter/ha: azoxystrobin, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) subsp. kurstaki, captan, chlorothalonil, copper hydroxide, fenarimol, glyphosate, hexaconazole, indoxacarb, metalaxyl/copper hydroxide, myclobutanil, nonyl phenol ethylene oxide, phosphorous acid, potassium bicarbonate, pyraclostrobin, quinoxyfen, spiroxamine, synthetic latex, tebufenozide, triadimenol, and trifloxystrobin. Iprodione and penconazole had some detrimental effect on fecundity. Canola oil as acaricide (2 liter/100 liter) and wettable sulfur (200 g/100 liter) had some detrimental effect on survival and fecundity and cyprodinil/fludioxonil on survivor. The following compounds were highly toxic (high 48-h mortality): benomyl, carbendazim, emamectin benzoate, mancozeb, spinosad (direct overspray and residue), wettable sulfur (> or = 400 g/100 liter), and pyrimethanil; pyrimethanil had no significant effect on fecundity of surviving females. Indoxacarb safety to E. victoriensis contrasts with its toxicity to key parasitoids and chrysopid predators. Potential impact of findings is discussed.

  15. Prehospital fast track care for patients with hip fracture: Impact on time to surgery, hospital stay, post-operative complications and mortality a randomised, controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsson, Glenn; Strömberg, Rn Ulf; Rogmark, Cecilia; Nilsdotter, Anna

    2016-04-01

    Ambulance organisations in Sweden have introduced prehospital fast track care (PFTC) for patients with suspected hip fracture. This means that the ambulance nurse starts the pre-operative procedure otherwise implemented at the accident & emergency ward (A&E) and transports the patient directly to the radiology department instead of A&E. If the diagnosis is confirmed, the patient is transported directly to the orthopaedic ward. No previous randomised, controlled studies have analysed PFTC to describe its possible advantages. The aim of this study is to examine whether PFTC has any impact on outcomes such as time to surgery, length of stay, post-operative complications and mortality. The design of this study is a prehospital randomised, controlled study, powered to include 400 patients. The patients were randomised into PFTC or the traditional care pathway (A&E group). Time from arrival to start for X-ray was faster for PFTC (mean, 28 vs. 145 min; pstart of X-ray to start of surgery (mean 18.40 h in both groups). No significant differences between the groups were observed with regard to: time from arrival to start of surgery (p=0.07); proportion operated within 24h (79% PFTC, 75% A&E; p=0.34); length of stay (p=0.34); post-operative complications (p=0.75); and 4 month mortality (18% PFTC, 15% A&E p=0.58). PFTC improved time to X-ray and admission to a ward, as expected, but did not significantly affect time to start of surgery, length of stay, post-operative complications or mortality. These outcomes were probably affected by other factors at the hospital. Patients with either possible life-threatening conditions or life-threatening conditions prehospital were excluded. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-08-01

    Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Intraguild predation between small pelagic fish in the Bay of Biscay: impact on anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus L.) egg mortality

    KAUST Repository

    Bachiller, Eneko; Cotano, Unai; Ibaibarriaga, Leire; Santos, Maria; Irigoien, Xabier

    2015-01-01

    could have a strong impact on the recruitment variability (e.g. anchovy). Egg cannibalism observed in anchovies has been postulated to be a mechanism that determines the upper limit of the population density and self-regulates the population abundance

  18. Impact of Combination Antimicrobial Therapy on Mortality Risk for Critically Ill Patients with Carbapenem-Resistant Bacteremia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Seth R.; Neuner, Elizabeth A.; Lam, Simon W.

    2015-01-01

    There are limited treatment options for carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative infections. Currently, there are suggestions in the literature that combination therapy should be used, which frequently includes antibiotics to which the causative pathogen demonstrates in vitro resistance. This case-control study evaluated risk factors associated with all-cause mortality rates for critically ill patients with carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteremia. Adult patients who were admitted to an intensive care unit with sepsis and a blood culture positive for Gram-negative bacteria resistant to a carbapenem were included. Patients with polymicrobial, recurrent, or breakthrough infections were excluded. Included patients were classified as survivors (controls) or nonsurvivors (cases) at 30 days after the positive blood culture. Of 302 patients screened, 168 patients were included, of whom 90 patients died (53.6% [cases]) and 78 survived (46.4% [controls]) at 30 days. More survivors received appropriate antibiotics (antibiotics with in vitro activity) than did nonsurvivors (93.6% versus 53.3%; P carbapenems) (87.2% versus 80%; P = 0.21). After adjustment for baseline factors with multivariable logistic regression, combination therapy was independently associated with decreased risk of death (odds ratio, 0.19 [95% confidence interval, 0.06 to 0.56]; P carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteremia. However, that association is lost if in vitro activity is not considered. PMID:25845872

  19. Impact of low skeletal muscle mass on non-lung cancer mortality after stereotactic body radiotherapy for patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuo, Yukinori; Mitsuyoshi, Takamasa; Shintani, Takashi; Iizuka, Yusuke; Mizowaki, Takashi

    2018-05-17

    The purpose of the present study was to retrospectively evaluate impact of pre-treatment skeletal muscle mass (SMM) on overall survival and non-lung cancer mortality after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). One-hundred and eighty-six patients whose abdominal CT before the treatment was available were enrolled into this study. The patients were divided into two groups of SMM according to gender-specific thresholds for unilateral psoas area. Operability was judged by the treating physician or thoracic surgeon after discussion in a multi-disciplinary tumor board. Patients with low SMM tended to be elderly and underweight in body mass index compared with the high SMM. Overall survival in patients with the low SMM tended to be worse than that in the high SMM (41.1% and 55.9% at 5 years, P = 0.115). Cumulative incidence of non-lung cancer death was significantly worse in the low SMM (31.3% at 5 years compared with 9.7% in the high SMM, P = 0.006). Multivariate analysis identified SMM and operability as significant factors for non-lung cancer mortality. Impact of SMM on lung cancer death was not significant. No difference in rate of severe treatment-related toxicity was observed between the SMM groups. Low SMM is a significant risk factor for non-lung cancer death, which might lead to worse overall survival, after SBRT for stage I NSCLC. However, the low SMM does not increase lung cancer death or severe treatment-related toxicity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The impact of eliminating within-country inequality in health coverage on maternal and child mortality: a Lives Saved Tool analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrienne Clermont

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inequality in healthcare across population groups in low-income countries is a growing topic of interest in global health. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST, which uses health intervention coverage to model maternal, neonatal, and child health outcomes such as mortality rates, can be used to analyze the impact of within-country inequality. Methods Data from nationally representative household surveys (98 surveys conducted between 1998 and 2014, disaggregated by wealth quintile, were used to create a LiST analysis that models the impact of scaling up health intervention coverage for the entire country from the national average to the rate of the top wealth quintile (richest 20% of the population. Interventions for which household survey data are available were used as proxies for other interventions that are not measured in surveys, based on co-delivery of intervention packages. Results For the 98 countries included in the analysis, 24–32% of child deaths (including 34–47% of neonatal deaths and 16–19% of post-neonatal deaths could be prevented by scaling up national coverage of key health interventions to the level of the top wealth quintile. On average, the interventions with most unequal coverage rates across wealth quintiles were those related to childbirth in health facilities and to water and sanitation infrastructure; the most equally distributed were those delivered through community-based mass campaigns, such as vaccines, vitamin A supplementation, and bednet distribution. Conclusions LiST is a powerful tool for exploring the policy and programmatic implications of within-country inequality in low-income, high-mortality-burden countries. An “Equity Tool” app has been developed within the software to make this type of analysis easily accessible to users.

  1. Quantifying the impacts of piñon mortality on ecosystem-scale carbon and water cycling: a twinned flux tower approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Litvak, M. E.; McDowell, N.; Rahn, T.; Ryan, M. G.

    2010-12-01

    that piñon mortality will alter the vertical and horizontal pattern of infiltration of precipitation and the sources and patterns of water use by remaining small piñon, juniper, understory vegetation and surface evaporation. Pinon mortality may not significantly alter cumulative ecosystem evaportranspiration, but associated changes in litter, bare soil fraction and replacement vegetation will likely alter seasonal variation in evaporation, transpiration and water-use efficiency. Here we present an initial analysis contrasting ecosystem response to environmental drivers pre- and post-manipulation and between manipulation and control sites, identifying and quantifying the impacts of piñon mortality over naturally occurring inter-annual and inter-site variability.

  2. Examining the impact of introducing ICD-MM on observed trends in maternal mortality rates in the UK 2003-13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Marian; Nair, Manisha; Brocklehurst, Peter; Kenyon, Sara; Neilson, James; Shakespeare, Judy; Tuffnell, Derek; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J

    2016-07-20

    The causes of maternal death are now classified internationally according to ICD-MM. One significant change with the introduction of ICD-MM in 2012 was the reclassification of maternal suicide from the indirect group to the direct group. This has led to concerns about the impact of this reclassification on calculated mortality rates. The aim of this analysis was to examine the trends in maternal deaths in the UK over the past 10 years, and to investigate the impact of reclassification using ICD-MM on the observed rates. Data about all maternal deaths between 2003-13 in the UK were included in this analysis. Data about maternal deaths occurring prior to 2009 were obtained from previously published reports. The deaths of women from 2009-13 during or after pregnancy were identified through the MBRRACE-UK Confidential Enquiry into Maternal Deaths. The underlying causes of maternal death were reclassified from a disease-based system to ICD-MM. Maternal mortality rates with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated using national data on the number of maternities as the denominator. Rate ratios with 95 % CI were calculated to compare the change in rates of maternal death as per ICD-MM relative to the old classification system. There was a decrease in the maternal death rate between 2003-05 and 2011-13 (rate ratio (RR) 0.65; 95 % CI 0.54-0.77 comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time). The direct maternal death rate calculated using the old classification decreased with a RR of 0.47 (95 % CI 0.34-0.63) when comparing 2011-13 with 2003-05; p = 0.005 for trend over time. Reclassification using ICD-MM made little material difference to the observed trend in direct maternal death rates, RR = 0.51 (95 % CI 0.39-0.68) when comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time. The impact of reclassifying maternal deaths according to ICD-MM in the UK was minimal. However, such reclassification raises awareness of maternal suicides

  3. Impact of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Interventions on Growth, Non-diarrheal Morbidity and Mortality in Children Residing in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gera, Tarun; Shah, Dheeraj; Sachdev, Harshpal Singh

    2018-02-09

    To evaluate the impact of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions in children (age middle-income countries. 41 trials with WASH intervention, incorporating data on 113055 children. Hygiene promotion and education (15 trials); water intervention (10 trials), sanitation improvement (7 trials), all three components of WASH (4 trials), combined water and sanitation (1 trial) and sanitation and hygiene (1 trial). (i) Anthropometry: weight, height, weight-for-height, mid-arm circumference; (ii) Prevalence of malnutrition; (iii) Non-diarrheal morbidity; and (iv) mortality. There was no effect of hygiene intervention on most anthropometric parameters (low to very low quality evidence). Hygiene intervention reduced the risk of developing Acute respiratory infections by 24% (RR 0.76; 95% CI 0.59, 0.98; moderate quality evidence), cough by 10% (RR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83, 0.97; moderate quality evidence), laboratory-confirmed influenza by 50% (RR 0.5; 95% CI 0.41, 0.62; very low quality evidence), fever by 13% (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.74, 1.02; moderate quality evidence), and conjunctivitis by 51% (RR 0.49; 95% CI 0.45, 0.55; low quality evidence). There was low quality evidence to suggest no impact of intervention on mortality (RR 0.65; 95% CI 0.25, 1.7). Improvement in water supply and quality was associated with slightly higher weight-for-age Z-score (MD 0.03; 95% CI 0, 0.06; low quality evidence), but no significant impact on other anthropometric parameters or infectious morbidity (low to very low quality evidence). There was very low quality evidence to suggest reduction in mortality (RR 0.45; 95% CI 0.25, 0.81). Improvement in sanitation had a variable effect on the anthropometry and infectious morbidity. Combined water, sanitation and hygiene intervention improved height-for-age z scores (MD 0.22; 95% CI 0.12, 0.32) and decreased the risk of stunting by 13% (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.81, 0.94) (very low quality of evidence). There was no evidence of significant effect of

  4. The association between temperature and mortality in tropical middle income Thailand from 1999 to 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Dear, Keith; Kjellstrom, Tord; Sleigh, Adrian

    2014-03-01

    We have investigated the association between tropical weather condition and age-sex adjusted death rates (ADR) in Thailand over a 10-year period from 1999 to 2008. Population, mortality, weather and air pollution data were obtained from four national databases. Alternating multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) regression and stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis were used to sequentially build models of the associations between temperature variable and deaths, adjusted for the effects and interactions of age, sex, weather (6 variables), and air pollution (10 variables). The associations are explored and compared among three seasons (cold, hot and wet months) and four weather zones of Thailand (the North, Northeast, Central, and South regions). We found statistically significant associations between temperature and mortality in Thailand. The maximum temperature is the most important variable in predicting mortality. Overall, the association is nonlinear U-shape and 31 °C is the minimum-mortality temperature in Thailand. The death rates increase when maximum temperature increase with the highest rates in the North and Central during hot months. The final equation used in this study allowed estimation of the impact of a 4 °C increase in temperature as projected for Thailand by 2100; this analysis revealed that the heat-related deaths will increase more than the cold-related deaths avoided in the hot and wet months, and overall the net increase in expected mortality by region ranges from 5 to 13 % unless preventive measures were adopted. Overall, these results are useful for health impact assessment for the present situation and future public health implication of global climate change for tropical Thailand.

  5. Sudden Oak Death-Induced Tanoak Mortality in Coast Redwood Forests: Current and Predicted Impacts to Stand Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin L. O’Hara

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus syn. Lithocarpus densiflorus is one of the most widespread and abundant associates of coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens, but little is known about the structural relationships between these two species. Knowledge of such relationships is essential for a thorough understanding of the impacts of sudden oak death (caused by the exotic pathogen Phytophthora ramorum, which is currently decimating tanoak populations throughout the redwood range. In this study, we utilized a stratified plot design and a stand reconstruction technique to assess structural impacts, at present and in the future, of this emerging disease. We found that residual trees in diseased plots were more aggregated than trees in unaffected plots, and we predicted that the loss of tanoak will lead to the following short-term changes: greater average diameter, height, height-to-live-crown, and crown length, as well as an increase in average nearest neighbor differences for diameter, height, and crown length. In addition, plots lacking tanoak (living or dead—as compared to plots with tanoak—exhibited greater average diameter and increased nearest neighbor differences with regard to diameter, height, and crown length. We also conducted a preliminary exploration of how sudden oak death-induced structural changes compare with typical old-growth characteristics, and how this disease may affect the structure of old-growth forests.

  6. Possible explanations for why some countries were harder hit by the pandemic influenza virus in 2009 - a global mortality impact modeling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morales, K.F.; Paget, J.; Spreeuwenberg, P.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A global pandemic mortality study found prominent regional mortality variations in 2009 for Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Our study attempts to identify factors that explain why the pandemic mortality burden was high in some countries and low in others. METHODS: As a starting point, we

  7. Activity-based funding of hospitals and its impact on mortality, readmission, discharge destination, severity of illness, and volume of care: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Karen S; Agoritsas, Thomas; Martin, Danielle; Scott, Taryn; Mulla, Sohail M; Miller, Ashley P; Agarwal, Arnav; Bresnahan, Andrew; Hazzan, Afeez Abiola; Jeffery, Rebecca A; Merglen, Arnaud; Negm, Ahmed; Siemieniuk, Reed A; Bhatnagar, Neera; Dhalla, Irfan A; Lavis, John N; You, John J; Duckett, Stephen J; Guyatt, Gordon H

    2014-01-01

    Activity-based funding (ABF) of hospitals is a policy intervention intended to re-shape incentives across health systems through the use of diagnosis-related groups. Many countries are adopting or actively promoting ABF. We assessed the effect of ABF on key measures potentially affecting patients and health care systems: mortality (acute and post-acute care); readmission rates; discharge rate to post-acute care following hospitalization; severity of illness; volume of care. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of the worldwide evidence produced since 1980. We included all studies reporting original quantitative data comparing the impact of ABF versus alternative funding systems in acute care settings, regardless of language. We searched 9 electronic databases (OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, OVID Healthstar, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL, Health Technology Assessment, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Business Source), hand-searched reference lists, and consulted with experts. Paired reviewers independently screened for eligibility, abstracted data, and assessed study credibility according to a pre-defined scoring system, resolving conflicts by discussion or adjudication. Of 16,565 unique citations, 50 US studies and 15 studies from 9 other countries proved eligible (i.e. Australia, Austria, England, Germany, Israel, Italy, Scotland, Sweden, Switzerland). We found consistent and robust differences between ABF and no-ABF in discharge to post-acute care, showing a 24% increase with ABF (pooled relative risk  = 1.24, 95% CI 1.18-1.31). Results also suggested a possible increase in readmission with ABF, and an apparent increase in severity of illness, perhaps reflecting differences in diagnostic coding. Although we found no consistent, systematic differences in mortality rates and volume of care, results varied widely across studies, some suggesting appreciable benefits from ABF, and others suggesting deleterious

  8. Activity-based funding of hospitals and its impact on mortality, readmission, discharge destination, severity of illness, and volume of care: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen S Palmer

    Full Text Available Activity-based funding (ABF of hospitals is a policy intervention intended to re-shape incentives across health systems through the use of diagnosis-related groups. Many countries are adopting or actively promoting ABF. We assessed the effect of ABF on key measures potentially affecting patients and health care systems: mortality (acute and post-acute care; readmission rates; discharge rate to post-acute care following hospitalization; severity of illness; volume of care.We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of the worldwide evidence produced since 1980. We included all studies reporting original quantitative data comparing the impact of ABF versus alternative funding systems in acute care settings, regardless of language. We searched 9 electronic databases (OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, OVID Healthstar, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL, Health Technology Assessment, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Business Source, hand-searched reference lists, and consulted with experts. Paired reviewers independently screened for eligibility, abstracted data, and assessed study credibility according to a pre-defined scoring system, resolving conflicts by discussion or adjudication.Of 16,565 unique citations, 50 US studies and 15 studies from 9 other countries proved eligible (i.e. Australia, Austria, England, Germany, Israel, Italy, Scotland, Sweden, Switzerland. We found consistent and robust differences between ABF and no-ABF in discharge to post-acute care, showing a 24% increase with ABF (pooled relative risk  = 1.24, 95% CI 1.18-1.31. Results also suggested a possible increase in readmission with ABF, and an apparent increase in severity of illness, perhaps reflecting differences in diagnostic coding. Although we found no consistent, systematic differences in mortality rates and volume of care, results varied widely across studies, some suggesting appreciable benefits from ABF, and others suggesting

  9. Heatwave and elderly mortality: An evaluation of death burden and health costs considering short-term mortality displacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jian; Xu, Zhiwei; Bambrick, Hilary; Su, Hong; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2018-06-01

    A heatwave can be a devastating natural disaster to human health, and elderly people are particularly vulnerable. With the continuing rise in earth's surface temperature alongside the world's aging population, research on the mortality burden of heatwave for the older population remains relatively sparse. The potential magnitude of benefits of averting such deaths may be considerable. This paper examined the short-term mortality displacement (or "harvesting") of heatwave, characterized the heatwave-mortality relationship, and estimated death burden and health costs attributable to heatwave among the elderly in Australia. We collected daily data on the temperature and deaths of people aged ≥75 years in the five largest cities of Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide), totaling 368,767 deaths in different periods between 1988 and 2011. A total of 15-tiered heatwave definitions, based on intensity (95th to 99th percentiles of temperature distribution) and duration (two or more consecutive days), were used to quantify heatwave effects, using time-series regression and random-effects meta-analysis. We calculated attributable deaths for each city and by different types of heatwave. Potential economic benefits in monetary terms were also estimated, considering that heat-related deaths are avoidable. Among the Australian elderly population, we found significant associations between heatwave and deaths, with raised mortality immediately in the first few days followed by lower-than-expected mortality. In general, heatwave was associated with an average death increase of 28% (95% confidence interval: 15% to 42%), and greater increases were mostly observed for more intense heatwaves across multiple megacities. During the study period, there were dozens to hundreds of deaths attributable to heatwave for each city, equating to an economic loss of several million Australian dollars every year. Although the estimated attributable deaths varied by heatwave

  10. A review of the possible impacts of long-term oceanic and climate changes and fishing mortality on recruitment of anguillid eels of the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knights, B

    2003-07-01

    Possible causes of declines in recruitment of European, American and Japanese eels to continental waters are reviewed. Negative correlations between the Den Oever glass eel recruitment index (DOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index since 1938 are discussed, together with older anecdotal evidence. Correlations are established between the DOI and sea surface temperature anomalies at 100-250 m between 1952 and 1995 in the Sargasso Sea/Sub-Tropical Gyre (STG) spawning area. It is hypothesised that, associated with global warming trends, STG warming inhibits spring thermocline mixing and nutrient circulation, with negative impacts on productivity and hence food for leptocephalus larvae. Concurrent gyre spin-up also affects major currents and slowing of oceanic migration has probably enhanced starvation and predation losses. Local factors, such as unfavourable wind-driven currents, can also affect recruitment of glass eels on continental shelves. In contrast, evidence is discussed that indicates fishing mortality and continental climate change appear to have had lesser impacts. Similar starvation-advection explanations for declines in Japanese eel recruitment are proposed. Predictions for the future are made and multidisciplinary and integrated monitoring and research are recommended for managing eel stocks and fisheries.

  11. Cancer mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, H.

    1986-01-01

    The Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) and its predecessor, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC), have conducted mortality surveillance on a fixed sample, the Life Span Study (LSS), of 82,000 atomic bomb survivors and 27,000 nonexposed residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki since 1950. The results of the most recent analysis of the LSS are summarized

  12. Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercy Manyema

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs, has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. Methods A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010. We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Results Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million. Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Conclusions Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

  13. The impact of socioeconomic status on stage specific prostate cancer survival and mortality before and after introduction of PSA test in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seikkula, Heikki A; Kaipia, Antti J; Ryynänen, Heidi; Seppä, Karri; Pitkäniemi, Janne M; Malila, Nea K; Boström, Peter J

    2018-03-01

    Socioeconomic status (SES) has an impact on prostate cancer (PCa) outcomes. Men with high SES have higher incidence and lower mortality of PCa versus lower SES males. PCa cases diagnosed in Finland in 1985-2014 (N = 95,076) were identified from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Information on education level (EL) was obtained from Statistics Finland. EL was assessed with three-tiered scale: basic, upper secondary and higher education. PCa stage at diagnosis was defined as localized, metastatic or unknown. Years of diagnosis 1985-1994 were defined as pre-PSA period and thereafter as post-PSA period. We report PCa-specific survival (PCSS) and relative risks (RR) for PCa specific mortality (PCSM) among cancer cases in Finland, where healthcare is 100% publicly reimbursed and inequality in healthcare services low. Men with higher