Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

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Výberči, Dalibor; Labudová, Lívia; Eštóková, Milada; Faško, Pavol; Trizna, Milan

2017-07-01

In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days' sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996-2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.

Urbanization Level and Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

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Chen, Kai; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Ma, Zongwei; Liu, Yang; Huang, Lei; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2016-12-01

Although adverse effects of high temperature on mortality have been studied extensively in urban areas, little is known of the heat-mortality associations outside of cities. We investigated whether heat-mortality associations differed between urban and nonurban areas and how urbanicity affected the vulnerability to heat-related mortality. We first analyzed heat-related mortality risk in each of 102 counties in Jiangsu Province, China, during 2009-2013 using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. The county-specific estimates were then pooled for more urban (percentage of urban population ≥ 57.11%) and less urban (percentage of urban population risk comparing the 99th vs. 75th percentiles of temperature was 1.43 [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.36, 1.50] in less urban counties and 1.26 (95% PI: 1.23, 1.30) in more urban counties. The heat effects on cardiorespiratory mortality followed a similar pattern. Higher education level and prevalence of air conditioning were significantly associated with counties having lower risks, whereas percentage of elderly people was significantly associated with increased risks. Our findings reveal that nonurban areas have significant heat-related mortality risks in Jiangsu, China. These results suggest the need for enhanced adaptation planning in Chinese nonurban areas under a changing climate. Citation: Chen K, Zhou L, Chen X, Ma Z, Liu Y, Huang L, Bi J, Kinney PL. 2016. Urbanization level and vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1863-1869; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP204.

The application of the European heat wave of 2003 to Korean cities to analyze impacts on heat-related mortality

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Greene, J. Scott; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Kim, Kyu Rang; Choi, Young-Jean; Lee, Dae-Geun

2016-02-01

The goal of this research is to transpose the unprecedented 2003 European excessive heat event to six Korean cities and to develop meteorological analogs for each. Since this heat episode is not a model but an actual event, we can use a plausible analog to assess the risk of increasing heat on these cities instead of an analog that is dependent on general circulation (GCM) modeling or the development of arbitrary scenarios. Initially, the 2003 summer meteorological conditions from Paris are characterized statistically and these characteristics are transferred to the Korean cites. Next, the new meteorological dataset for each Korean city is converted into a daily air mass calendar. We can then determine the frequency and character of "offensive" air masses in the Korean cities that are historically associated with elevated heat-related mortality. One unexpected result is the comparative severity of the very hot summer of 1994 in Korea, which actually eclipsed the 2003 analog. The persistence of the offensive air masses is considerably greater for the summer of 1994, as were dew point temperatures for a majority of the Korean cities. For all the Korean cities but one, the summer of 1994 is associated with more heat-related deaths than the analog summer, in some cases yielding a sixfold increase over deaths in an average summer. The Korean cities appear less sensitive to heat-related mortality problems during very hot summers than do large eastern and Midwestern US cities, possibly due to a lesser summer climate variation and efficient social services available during extreme heat episodes.

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.

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Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

2017-07-05

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in seven major cities in Korea.

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Son, Ji-Young; Lee, Jong-Tae; Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

2012-04-01

Understanding the health impacts of heat waves is important, especially given anticipated increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves due to climate change. We examined mortality from heat waves in seven major Korean cities for 2000 through 2007 and investigated effect modification by individual characteristics and heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 consecutive days with daily mean temperature at or above the 98th percentile for the warm season in each city. We compared mortality during heat-wave days and non-heat-wave days using city-specific generalized linear models. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate overall effects within and across all cities. In addition, we estimated effects of heat wave characteristics and effects according to cause of death and examined effect modification by individual characteristics for Seoul. Overall, total mortality increased 4.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): -6.1%, 15.4%] during heat waves compared with non-heat-wave days, with an 8.4% increase (95% CI: 0.1%, 17.3%) estimated for Seoul. Estimated mortality was higher for heat waves that were more intense, longer, or earlier in summer, although effects were not statistically significant. Estimated risks were higher for women versus men, older versus younger residents, those with no education versus some education, and deaths that occurred out of hospitals in Seoul, although differences among strata of individual characteristics were not statistically significant. Our findings support evidence of mortality impacts from heat waves and have implications for efforts to reduce the public health burden of heat waves.

The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huynen, M. M.; Martens, P.; Schram, D.; Weijenberg, M. P.; Kunst, A. E.

2001-01-01

We conducted the study described in this paper to investigate the impact of ambient temperature on mortality in the Netherlands during 1979-1997, the impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in particular, and the possibility of any heat wave- or cold spell-induced forward displacement of

Differences in Heat-Related Mortality by Citizenship Status: United States, 2005-2014.

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Taylor, Ethel V; Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Flanders, W Dana; Murphy, Matthew; Spencer, Merianne; Noe, Rebecca S

2018-04-01

To determine whether non-US citizens have a higher mortality risk of heat-related deaths than do US citizens. We used place of residence reported in mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System from 2005 to 2014 as a proxy for citizenship to examine differences in heat-related deaths between non-US and US citizens. Estimates from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey of self-reported citizenship status and place of birth provided the numbers for the study population. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio and relative risk for heat-related deaths between non-US and US citizens nationally. Heat-related deaths accounted for 2.23% (n = 999) of deaths among non-US citizens and 0.02% (n = 4196) of deaths among US citizens. The age-adjusted standardized mortality ratio for non-US citizens compared with US citizens was 3.4 (95% confidence ratio [CI] = 3.2, 3.6). This risk was higher for Hispanic non-US citizens (risk ratio [RR] = 3.6; 95% CI = 3.2, 3.9) and non-US citizens aged 18 to 24 years (RR = 20.6; 95% CI = 16.5, 25.7). We found an increased mortality risk among non-US citizens compared with US citizens for heat-related deaths, especially those younger and of Hispanic ethnicity.

Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic—A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Urban, Aleš; Hanzlíková, Hana; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

2017-01-01

Roč. 14, č. 12 (2017), č. článku 1562. ISSN 1660-4601 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-22000S Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) MSM100421604 Program:Program na podporu mezinárodní spolupráce začínajících výzkumných pracovníků Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : heat-related mortality * heat-wave * excess heat factor * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 2.101, year: 2016 http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/14/12/1562

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

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Elisaveta P. Petkova

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

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Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

2014-01-01

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

The Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in six major cities, South Korea, under representative concentration pathways (RCPs

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Youngmin eKim

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Background: We aimed to quantify the excess mortality associated with increased temperature due to climate change in six major Korean cities under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs which are new emission scenarios designed for the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Methods: We first examined the association between daily mean temperature and mortality in each during the summertime (June to September from 2001 to 2008. This was done using a generalized linear Poisson model with adjustment for a long-term time trend, relative humidity, air pollutants, and day of the week. We then computed heat-related mortality attributable to future climate change using estimated mortality risks, projected future populations, and temperature increments for both future years 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We considered effects from added days with high temperatures over thresholds and shifted effects from high to higher temperature.Results: Estimated excess all-cause mortalities for six cities in Korea ranged from 500 (95% CI: 313-703 for 2041-2070 to 2,320 (95% CI: 1,430-3,281 deaths per year for 2071-2100 under two RCPs. Excess cardiovascular mortality was estimated to range from 192 (95% CI: 41-351 to 896 (95% CI: 185-1,694 deaths per year, covering about 38.5% of all-cause excess mortality. Increased rates of heat-related mortality were higher in cities located at relatively lower latitude than cities with higher latitude. Estimated excess mortality under RCP 8.5, a fossil fuel-intensive emission scenario, was more than twice as high compared with RCP 4.5, low to medium emission scenario.Conclusions: Excess mortality due to climate change is expected to be profound in the future showing spatial variation. Efforts to mitigate climate change can cause substantial health benefits via reducing heat-related mortality.

Spatial patterns of heat-related cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Urban, A.; Burkart, K.; Kyselý, J.; Schuster, Ch.; Plavcová, E.; Hanzlíková, Hana; Štěpánek, P.; Lakes, T.

2016-01-01

Roč. 13, č. 3 (2016), 284/1-284/19 ISSN 1660-4601 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : heat stress * mortality * spatial differences Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.101, year: 2016

Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010-2012.

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Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Hand, Karen; Kelton, David F

2015-11-27

Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 °C or above, are an increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario. Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Heat stress indices (HSIs) are generally based on temperature and humidity and provide a relative measure of discomfort which can be used to predict increased risk of on-farm dairy cow mortality. In what follows, the heat stress distribution was described over space and presented with maps. Similarly, on-farm mortality was described and mapped. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that heat waves and related HSI increases during 2010-2012 were associated with increased on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Mortality records and farm locations for all farms registered in the CanWest Dairy Herd Improvement Program in Southern Ontario were retrieved for 3 heat waves and 6 three-day control periods from 2010 to 2012. A random sample of controls (2:1) was taken from the data set to create a risk-based hybrid design. On-farm heat stress was estimated using data from 37 weather stations and subsequently interpolated across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. A Poisson regression model was applied to assess the on-farm mortality in relation to varying levels of the HSI. For every one unit increase in HSI the on-farm mortality rate across Southern Ontario increases by 1.03 times (CI95% (IRR) = (1.025,1.035); p = ≤ 0.001). With a typical 8.6 unit increase in HSI from a control period to a heat wave, mortality rates are predicted to increase by 1.27 times. Southern Ontario was affected by heat waves, as demonstrated by high levels of heat stress and increased on-farm mortality

Impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality risk across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

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Moradkhani, H.; Ahmadalipour, A.

2017-12-01

It has been reported that even if the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2°C, warming over land will be far beyond that in many regions. Global climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and extreme high temperatures, which will in turn have severe impacts on human life. In this study, the mortality risk caused by excessive heat stress is investigated. Daily maximum air temperature and relative humidity are acquired from 17 CMIP5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) developed by CORDEX at 0.44 degree spatial resolution. Then, the daily wet-bulb temperature is calculated and a recently developed health risk model is implemented to quantify the mortality risk. The study is applied over the latitudes 6.6°S-42°N and longitudes 20°W-60°E covering parts of 70 countries and accommodating over 600 million inhabitants. The analysis is performed for the historical period of 1951-2005 as well as two future scenarios of RCP4.5 (moderate) and RCP8.5 (business as usual) during 2006-2100. Results indicate about 5 to 30 times higher mortality risk in distant future compared to the historical period. The most aggravation of mortality risk over land is found at the southwestern regions of MENA, due to substantial increase in frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures. Mortality risk is found to be much higher over open waters and coastal regions due to abundant humidity, especially in the coastal regions of the Red sea and Persian Gulf.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

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Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Heat exposure and socio-economic vulnerability as synergistic factors in heat-wave-related mortality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rey, Gregoire; Fouillet, Anne; Bessemoulin, Pierre; Frayssinet, Philippe; Dufour, Anne; Jougla, Eric; Hemon, Denis

2009-01-01

Heat waves may become a serious threat to the health and safety of people who currently live in temperate climates. It was therefore of interest to investigate whether more deprived populations are more vulnerable to heat waves. In order to address the question on a fine geographical scale, the spatial heterogeneity of the excess mortality in France associated with the European heat wave of August 2003 was analysed. A deprivation index and a heat exposure index were used jointly to describe the heterogeneity on the Canton scale (3,706 spatial units). During the heat wave period, the heat exposure index explained 68% of the extra-Poisson spatial variability of the heat wave mortality ratios. The heat exposure index was greater in the most urbanized areas. For the three upper quintiles of heat exposure in the densely populated Paris area, excess mortality rates were twofold higher in the most deprived Cantons (about 20 excess deaths/100,000 people/day) than in the least deprived Cantons (about 10 excess deaths/100,000 people/day). No such interaction was observed for the rest of France, which was less exposed to heat and less heterogeneous in terms of deprivation. Although a marked increase in mortality was associated with heat wave exposure for all degrees of deprivation, deprivation appears to be a vulnerability factor with respect to heat-wave-associated mortality.

Quantification of the heat wave effect on mortality in nine French cities during summer 2006.

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Pascal, Mathilde; Le Tertre, Alain; Saoudi, Abdessattar

2012-02-23

July 2006 was the first major heat wave in France after the creation of a heat prevention plan. Understanding its impacts on health will help improving the efficiency of this plan. We assessed the mortality impact of the heat wave, and investigated the influence of the heat prevention plan. The study focused on nine French cities. A Poisson regression model was used to analyze the correlation between temperature, air quality and mortality. An additional spline of time was introduced to capture an additional heat wave effect. Heat-action days defined by the prevention plan were introduced as a dummy variable. 411 extra deaths were observed in the nine cities during the 2006 heat wave. Unlike the 2003 heat wave, no additional heat wave effect was observed in 2006. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality varied from 1.45 in Strasbourg (IC 95% [1.01-2.08]) to 1.04 in Lille (IC 95% [0.92-1.18]). The impact on mortality of the implementation of heat-action days was non-significant and highly variable depending on the cities, with a combined excess of relative risk of -3.3% (IC 95% [-10.3%; 4.4%]). Although no specific heat wave effect was observed, warm temperatures and air pollution were still responsible for a significant excess mortality in France. The absence of a specific heat wave effect may be partly explained by the prevention plan. It may also indicate that higher temperatures are required to observe a mortality outburst.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China.

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Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-12-10

Background : Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods : We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an "optimum temperature" that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results : The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%-13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%-12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%-2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%-24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%-16.01%); Conclusions : In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient

Relationships Between Excessive Heat and Daily Mortality over the Coterminous U.S

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Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maury G., Jr.; Estes, Sue M.; Quattrochi, Dale A.

2015-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. Using National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) meteorological reanalysis data, we have developed several measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. These measures include daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily maximum heat indices and a new heat stress variable called Net Daily Heat Stress (NDHS) that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. All output has been created on the NLDAS 1/8 degree (approximately 12 km) grid and aggregated to the county level, which is the preferred geographic scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics have been made available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. We have examined the relationship between excessive heat events, as defined in eight different ways from the various daily heat metrics, and heat-related and all-cause mortality defined in CDC's National Center for Health Statistics 'Multiple Causes of Death 1999-2010' dataset. To do this, we linked daily, county-level heat mortality counts with EHE occurrence based on each of the eight EHE definitions by region and nationally for the period 1999-2010. The objectives of this analysis are to determine (1) whether heat-related deaths can be clearly tied to excessive heat events, (2) what time lags are critical for predicting heat-related deaths, and (3) which of the heat metrics correlates best with mortality in each US region. Results show large regional differences in the correlations between heat and mortality. Also, the heat metric that provides the best indicator of mortality varied by region

Social Interventions to Prevent Heat-Related Mortality in the Older Adult in Rome, Italy: A Quasi-Experimental Study

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Inzerilli, Maria Chiara; Palombi, Leonardo; Madaro, Olga; Betti, Daniela; Marazzi, Maria Cristina

2018-01-01

This study focuses on the impact of a program aimed at reducing heat-related mortality among older adults residing in central Rome by counteracting social isolation. The mortality of citizens over the age of 75 living in three Urban Areas (UAs) located in central Rome is compared with that of the residents of four adjacent UAs during the summer of 2015. The data, broken down by UA, were provided by the Statistical Office of the Municipality of Rome, which gathers them on a routine basis. During the summer of 2015, 167 deaths were recorded in those UAs in which the Long Live the Elderly (LLE) program was active and 169 in those in which it was not, implying cumulative mortality rates of 25‰ (SD ± 1.4; Cl 95%: 23–29) and 29‰ (SD ± 6.7; Cl 95%: 17–43), respectively. Relative to the summer of 2014, the increase of deaths during the summer of 2015 was greater in UAs in which the LLE program had not been implemented (+97.3% vs. +48.8%). In conclusion, the paper shows the impact of a community-based active monitoring program, focused on strengthening individual relationship networks and the social capital of the community, on mortality in those over 75 during heat waves. PMID:29641436

An ecological time-series study of heat-related mortality in three European cities

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Russo Antonio

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Europe has experienced warmer summers in the past two decades and there is a need to describe the determinants of heat-related mortality to better inform public health activities during hot weather. We investigated the effect of high temperatures on daily mortality in three cities in Europe (Budapest, London, and Milan, using a standard approach. Methods An ecological time-series study of daily mortality was conducted in three cities using Poisson generalized linear models allowing for over-dispersion. Secular trends in mortality and seasonal confounding factors were controlled for using cubic smoothing splines of time. Heat exposure was modelled using average values of the temperature measure on the same day as death (lag 0 and the day before (lag 1. The heat effect was quantified assuming a linear increase in risk above a cut-point for each city. Socio-economic status indicators and census data were linked with mortality data for stratified analyses. Results The risk of heat-related death increased with age, and females had a greater risk than males in age groups ≥65 years in London and Milan. The relative risks of mortality (per °C above the heat cut-point by gender and age were: (i Male 1.10 (95%CI: 1.07–1.12 and Female 1.07 (1.05–1.10 for 75–84 years, (ii M 1.10 (1.06–1.14 and F 1.08 (1.06–1.11 for ≥85 years in Budapest (≥24°C; (i M 1.03 (1.01–1.04 and F 1.07 (1.05–1.09, (ii M 1.05 (1.03–1.07 and F 1.08 (1.07–1.10 in London (≥20°C; and (i M 1.08 (1.03–1.14 and F 1.20 (1.15–1.26, (ii M 1.18 (1.11–1.26 and F 1.19 (1.15–1.24 in Milan (≥26°C. Mortality from external causes increases at higher temperatures as well as that from respiratory and cardiovascular disease. There was no clear evidence of effect modification by socio-economic status in either Budapest or London, but there was a seemingly higher risk for affluent non-elderly adults in Milan. Conclusion We found broadly consistent

Socioenvironmental factors associated with heat and cold-related mortality in Vadu HDSS, western India: a population-based case-crossover study

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Ingole, Vijendra; Kovats, Sari; Schumann, Barbara; Hajat, Shakoor; Rocklöv, Joacim; Juvekar, Sanjay; Armstrong, Ben

2017-10-01

Ambient temperatures (heat and cold) are associated with mortality, but limited research is available about groups most vulnerable to these effects in rural populations. We estimated the effects of heat and cold on daily mortality among different sociodemographic groups in the Vadu HDSS area, western India. We studied all deaths in the Vadu HDSS area during 2004-2013. A conditional logistic regression model in a case-crossover design was used. Separate analyses were carried out for summer and winter season. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for total mortality and population subgroups. Temperature above a threshold of 31 °C was associated with total mortality (OR 1.48, CI = 1.05-2.09) per 1 °C increase in daily mean temperature. Odds ratios were higher among females (OR 1.93; CI = 1.07-3.47), those with low education (OR 1.65; CI = 1.00-2.75), those owing larger agricultural land (OR 2.18; CI = 0.99-4.79), and farmers (OR 1.70; CI = 1.02-2.81). In winter, per 1 °C decrease in mean temperature, OR for total mortality was 1.06 (CI = 1.00-1.12) in lag 0-13 days. High risk of cold-related mortality was observed among people occupied in housework (OR = 1.09; CI = 1.00-1.19). Our study suggests that both heat and cold have an impact on mortality particularly heat, but also, to a smaller degree, cold have an impact. The effects may differ partly by sex, education, and occupation. These findings might have important policy implications in preventing heat and cold effects on particularly vulnerable groups of the rural populations in low and middle-income countries with hot semi-arid climate.

The impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in the Greater Metropolitan Sydney Region: a case crossover analysis.

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Wilson, Leigh Ann; Morgan, Geoffrey Gerard; Hanigan, Ivan Charles; Johnston, Fay H; Abu-Rayya, Hisham; Broome, Richard; Gaskin, Clive; Jalaludin, Bin

2013-11-15

This study examined the association between unusually high temperature and daily mortality (1997-2007) and hospital admissions (1997-2010) in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) to assist in the development of targeted health programs designed to minimise the public health impact of extreme heat. Sydney GMR was categorized into five climate zones. Heat-events were defined as severe or extreme. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design with a conditional logistic regression model we adjusted for influenza epidemics, public holidays, and climate zone. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for associations between daily mortality and hospital admissions with heat-event days compared to non-heat event days for single and three day heat-events. All-cause mortality overall had similar magnitude associations with single day and three day extreme and severe events as did all cardiovascular mortality. Respiratory mortality was associated with single day and three day severe events (95th percentile, lag0: OR = 1.14; 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.24). Diabetes mortality had similar magnitude associations with single day and three day severe events (95th percentile, lag0: OR = 1.22; 95%CI: 1.03 to 1.46) but was not associated with extreme events. Hospital admissions for heat related injuries, dehydration, and other fluid disorders were associated with single day and three day extreme and severe events. Contrary to our findings for mortality, we found inconsistent and sometimes inverse associations for extreme and severe events with cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease hospital admissions. Controlling for air pollutants did not influence the mortality associations but reduced the magnitude of the associations with hospital admissions particularly for ozone and respiratory disease. Single and three day events of unusually high temperatures in Sydney are associated with similar magnitude increases in mortality and hospital admissions. The trend

Urban and Transport Planning Related Exposures and Mortality: A Health Impact Assessment for Cities.

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Mueller, Natalie; Rojas-Rueda, David; Basagaña, Xavier; Cirach, Marta; Cole-Hunter, Tom; Dadvand, Payam; Donaire-Gonzalez, David; Foraster, Maria; Gascon, Mireia; Martinez, David; Tonne, Cathryn; Triguero-Mas, Margarita; Valentín, Antònia; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark

2017-01-01

By 2050, nearly 70% of the global population is projected to live in urban areas. Because the environments we inhabit affect our health, urban and transport designs that promote healthy living are needed. We estimated the number of premature deaths preventable under compliance with international exposure recommendations for physical activity (PA), air pollution, noise, heat, and access to green spaces. We developed and applied the Urban and TranspOrt Planning Health Impact Assessment (UTOPHIA) tool to Barcelona, Spain. Exposure estimates and mortality data were available for 1,357,361 residents. We compared recommended with current exposure levels. We quantified the associations between exposures and mortality and calculated population attributable fractions to estimate the number of premature deaths preventable. We also modeled life-expectancy and economic impacts. We estimated that annually, nearly 20% of mortality could be prevented if international recommendations for performance of PA; exposure to air pollution, noise, and heat; and access to green space were followed. Estimations showed that the greatest portion of preventable deaths was attributable to increases in PA, followed by reductions of exposure to air pollution, traffic noise, and heat. Access to green spaces had smaller effects on mortality. Compliance was estimated to increase the average life expectancy by 360 (95% CI: 219, 493) days and result in economic savings of 9.3 (95% CI: 4.9, 13.2) billion EUR/year. PA factors and environmental exposures can be modified by changes in urban and transport planning. We emphasize the need for a) the reduction of motorized traffic through the promotion of active and public transport and b) the provision of green infrastructure, both of which are suggested to provide opportunities for PA and for mitigation of air pollution, noise, and heat. Citation: Mueller N, Rojas-Rueda D, Basagaña X, Cirach M, Cole-Hunter T, Dadvand P, Donaire-Gonzalez D, Foraster M

Spatial patterns of heat-related cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Urban, Aleš; Burkart, K.; Kyselý, Jan; Schuster, Ch.; Plavcová, Eva; Hanzlíková, Hana; Štěpánek, Petr; Lakes, T.

2016-01-01

Roč. 13, č. 3 (2016), č. článku 284. ISSN 1660-4601 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1985 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 ; RVO:67179843 Keywords : heat stress * mortality * socioeconomic status * spatial differences * cardiovascular disease Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology; DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology (UEK-B) Impact factor: 2.101, year: 2016 http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/3/284

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China

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Yan Cui

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China; Methods: We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an “optimum temperature” that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results: The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%–13.65%. Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%–12.81%, while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%–2.35%. The attributable risk (AR of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%–24.24% than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%–16.01%; Conclusions: In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975-2008

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Miron, Isidro Juan; Linares, Cristina; Montero, Juan Carlos; Criado-Alvarez, Juan Jose; Díaz, Julio

2015-09-01

The relationship between heat waves and mortality has been widely described, but there are few studies using long daily data on specific-cause mortality. This study is undertaken in central Spain and analysing natural causes, circulatory and respiratory causes of mortality from 1975 to 2008. Time-series analysis was performed using ARIMA models, including data on specific-cause mortality and maximum and mean daily temperature and mean daily air pressure. The length of heat waves and their chronological number were analysed. Data were stratified in three decadal stages: 1975-1985, 1986-1996 and 1997-2008. Heat-related mortality was triggered by a threshold temperature of 37 °C. For each degree that the daily maximum temperature exceeded 37 °C, the percentage increase in mortality due to circulatory causes was 19.3 % (17.3-21.3) in 1975-1985, 30.3 % (28.3-32.3) in 1986-1996 and 7.3 % (6.2-8.4) in 1997-2008. The increase in respiratory cause ranged from 12.4 % (7.8-17.0) in the first period, to 16.3 % (14.1-18.4) in the second and 13.7 % (11.5-15.9) in the last. Each day of heat-wave duration explained 5.3 % (2.6-8.0) increase in respiratory mortality in the first period and 2.3 % (1.6-3.0) in the last. Decadal scale differences exist for specific-causes mortality induced by extreme heat. The impact on heat-related mortality by natural and circulatory causes increases between the first and the second period and falls significantly in the last. For respiratory causes, the increase is no reduced in the last period. These results are of particular importance for the estimation of future impacts of climate change on health.

Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities.

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Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

2011-02-01

Devastating health effects from recent heat waves, and projected increases in frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves from climate change, highlight the importance of understanding health consequences of heat waves. We analyzed mortality risk for heat waves in 43 U.S. cities (1987-2005) and investigated how effects relate to heat waves' intensity, duration, or timing in season. Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile for the community for 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, and timing in season. Within each community, we estimated mortality risk during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days, controlling for potential confounders. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate overall effects at the community, regional, and national levels. We estimated how heat wave mortality effects were modified by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, timing in season). Nationally, mortality increased 3.74% [95% posterior interval (PI), 2.29-5.22%] during heat waves compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality risk increased 2.49% for every 1°F increase in heat wave intensity and 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. Mortality increased 5.04% (95% PI, 3.06-7.06%) during the first heat wave of the summer versus 2.65% (95% PI, 1.14-4.18%) during later heat waves, compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality impacts and effect modification by heat wave characteristics were more pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest compared with the South. We found higher mortality risk from heat waves that were more intense or longer, or those occurring earlier in summer. These findings have implications for decision makers and researchers estimating health effects from climate change.

Estimating the Influence of Housing Energy Efficiency and Overheating Adaptations on Heat-Related Mortality in the West Midlands, UK

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Jonathon Taylor

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Mortality rates rise during hot weather in England, and projected future increases in heatwave frequency and intensity require the development of heat protection measures such as the adaptation of housing to reduce indoor overheating. We apply a combined building physics and health model to dwellings in the West Midlands, UK, using an English Housing Survey (EHS-derived stock model. Regional temperature exposures, heat-related mortality risk, and space heating energy consumption were estimated for 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s medium emissions climates prior to and following heat mitigating, energy-efficiency, and occupant behaviour adaptations. Risk variation across adaptations, dwellings, and occupant types were assessed. Indoor temperatures were greatest in converted flats, while heat mortality rates were highest in bungalows due to the occupant age profiles. Full energy efficiency retrofit reduced regional domestic space heating energy use by 26% but increased summertime heat mortality 3–4%, while reduced façade absorptance decreased heat mortality 12–15% but increased energy consumption by 4%. External shutters provided the largest reduction in heat mortality (37–43%, while closed windows caused a large increase in risk (29–64%. Ensuring adequate post-retrofit ventilation, targeted installation of shutters, and ensuring operable windows in dwellings with heat-vulnerable occupants may save energy and significantly reduce heat-related mortality.

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

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Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

2011-12-01

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change

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Stefan Muthers

2017-11-01

Full Text Available After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden–Württemberg. With an additional mean summer mortality of +7.9% (2003 and +5.8% (2015 both years mark the top-two records of the summer mortality in the period 1968–2015. In each summer, one major heat wave contributed strongly to the excess summer mortality: In August 2003, daily mortality reached anomalies of +70% and in July 2015 maximum deviations of +56% were observed. The August 2003 heat wave was very long-lasting and characterized by exceptional high maximum and minimum temperatures. In July 2015, temperatures were slightly lower than in 2003, however, the high air humidity during the day and night, lead to comparable heat loads. Furthermore, the heat wave occurred earlier during the summer, when the population was less acclimated to heat stress. Using regional climate models we project an increasing probability for future 2003- and 2015-like heat waves already in the near future (2021–2050, with a 2015-like event occurring about every second summer. In the far future (2070–2099 pronounced increases with more than two 2015-like heat waves per summer are possible.

Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China

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Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-08-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

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Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-08-16

Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a ) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b ) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c ) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

Heat-Related Mortality Projections for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Disease Under the Changing Climate in Beijing, China

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Li, Tiantian; Ban, Jie; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Huang, Ganlin; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4 percent, 47.8 percent, and 69.0 percent in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6 percent, 73.8 percent and 134 percent in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP 8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

Heat Mortality Versus Cold Mortality: A Study of Conflicting Databases in the United States.

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Dixon, P. G.; Brommer, D. M.; Hedquist, B. C.; Kalkstein, A. J.; Goodrich, G. B.; Walter, J. C.; Dickerson, C. C., IV; Penny, S. J.; Cerveny, R. S.

2005-07-01

Studies, public reports, news reports, and Web sites cite a wide range of values associated with deaths resulting from excessive heat and excessive cold. For example, in the United States, the National Climatic Data Center's Storm Data statistics of temperature- related deaths are skewed heavily toward heat-related deaths, while the National Center for Health Statistics Compressed Mortality Database indicates the reverse—4 times more people die of “excessive cold” conditions in a given year than of “excessive heat.” In this study, we address the fundamental differences in the various temperature-related mortality databases, assess their benefits and limitations, and offer suggestions as to their use. These datasets suffer from potential incompleteness of source information, long compilation times, limited quality control, and the subjective determination of a direct versus indirect cause of death. In general, these separate mortality datasets should not be combined or compared, particularly with regard to policy determination. The use of gross mortality numbers appears to be one of the best means of determining temperature-related mortality, but those data must be detrended into order to remove a persistent winter-dominant death maximum and are difficult to obtain on a regional daily basis.

Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010?2012

OpenAIRE

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E.; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L.; Hand, Karen; Kelton, David F.

2015-01-01

Background Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 ?C or above, are an increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario. Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Heat st...

Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

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Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Zhou, Maigeng; Liang, Xudong; Ban, Jie; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-06-01

An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heat-related mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

The impact of relative humidity and atmospheric pressure on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

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Ou, Chun Quan; Yang, Jun; Ou, Qiao Qun; Liu, Hua Zhang; Lin, Guo Zhen; Chen, Ping Yan; Qian, Jun; Guo, Yu Ming

2014-12-01

Although many studies have examined the effects of ambient temperatures on mortality, little evidence is on health impacts of atmospheric pressure and relative humidity. This study aimed to assess the impacts of atmospheric pressure and relative humidity on mortality in Guangzhou, China. This study included 213,737 registered deaths during 2003-2011 in Guangzhou, China. A quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the effects of atmospheric pressure/relative humidity. We found significant effect of low atmospheric pressure/relative humidity on mortality. There was a 1.79% (95% confidence interval: 0.38%-3.22%) increase in non-accidental mortality and a 2.27% (0.07%-4.51%) increase in cardiovascular mortality comparing the 5th and 25th percentile of atmospheric pressure. A 3.97% (0.67%-7.39%) increase in cardiovascular mortality was also observed comparing the 5th and 25th percentile of relative humidity. Women were more vulnerable to decrease in atmospheric pressure and relative humidity than men. Age and education attainment were also potential effect modifiers. Furthermore, low atmospheric pressure and relative humidity increased temperature-related mortality. Both low atmospheric pressure and relative humidity are important risk factors of mortality. Our findings would be helpful to develop health risk assessment and climate policy interventions that would better protect vulnerable subgroups of the population. Copyright © 2014 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

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Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

2014-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic: adaptation to climate change?

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Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

2010-05-01

Extreme temperature events have pronounced negative impacts on ecosystems and society, including human health effects. The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (central Europe) during 1986-2006. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in summer as well as in transition seasons, in spite of rising temperature trends (warming by 1.4 deg. C in summer over the 21-year period). The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that influence vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States.

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McGeehin, M A; Mirabelli, M

2001-05-01

Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat, measured by maximum or minimum temperature, heat index, and sometimes, other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions, urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly, young children, the poor, and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations, including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer, and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However, the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans, warning systems, and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between heat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention.

Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis

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Tobias Aurelio

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2003 heat wave had a high impact on mortality in Europe, which made necessary to develop heat health watch warning systems. In Spain this was carried-out by the Ministry of Health in 2004, being based on exceeding of city-specific simultaneous thresholds of minimum and maximum daily temperatures. The aim of this study is to assess effectiveness of the official thresholds established by the Ministry of Health for each provincial capital city, by quantifying and comparing the short-term effects of above-threshold days on total daily mortality. Methods Total daily mortality and minimum and maximum temperatures for the 52 capitals of province in Spain were collected during summer months (June to September for the study period 1995-2004. Data was analysed using GEE for Poisson regression. Relative Risk (RR of total daily mortality was quantified for the current day of official thresholds exceeded. Results The number of days in which the thresholds were exceeded show great inconsistency, with provinces with great number of exceeded days adjacent to provinces that did not exceed or rarely exceeded. The average overall excess risk of dying during an extreme heat day was about 25% (RR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI = [1.19-1.30]. Relative risks showed a significant heterogeneity between cities (I2 = 54.9%. Western situation and low mean summer temperatures were associated with higher relative risks, suggesting thresholds may have been set too high in these areas. Conclusions This study confirmed that extreme heat days have a considerable impact on total daily mortality in Spain. Official thresholds gave consistent relative risk in the large capital cities. However, in some other cities thresholds

Aging Will Amplify the Heat-Related Mortality Risk Under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China

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Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Zhou, Maigeng; Liang, Xudong; Ban, Jie; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heatrelated mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.

The impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in the Greater Metropolitan Sydney Region: a case crossover analysis

OpenAIRE

Wilson, Leigh Ann; Gerard Morgan, Geoffrey; Hanigan, Ivan Charles; Johnston, Fay H; Abu-Rayya, Hisham; Broome, Richard; Gaskin, Clive; Jalaludin, Bin

2013-01-01

Background This study examined the association between unusually high temperature and daily mortality (1997?2007) and hospital admissions (1997?2010) in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) to assist in the development of targeted health programs designed to minimise the public health impact of extreme heat. Methods Sydney GMR was categorized into five climate zones. Heat-events were defined as severe or extreme. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design with a conditional logisti...

Temporal Changes in Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia: Adaptation to Heat and Maladaptation to Cold.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Yeonseung; Noh, Heesang; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

2017-05-15

Understanding how the temperature-mortality association worldwide changes over time is crucial to addressing questions of human adaptation under climate change. Previous studies investigated the temporal changes in the association over a few discrete time frames or assumed a linear change. Also, most studies focused on attenuation of heat-related mortality and studied the United States or Europe. This research examined continuous temporal changes (potentially nonlinear) in mortality related to extreme temperature (both heat and cold) for 15 cities in Northeast Asia (1972-2009). We used a generalized linear model with splines to simultaneously capture 2 types of nonlinearity: nonlinear association between temperature and mortality and nonlinear change over time in the association. We combined city-specific results to generate country-specific results using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Cold-related mortality remained roughly constant over decades and slightly increased in the late 2000s, with a larger increase for cardiorespiratory deaths than for deaths from other causes. Heat-related mortality rates have decreased continuously over time, with more substantial decrease in earlier decades, for older populations and for cardiorespiratory deaths. Our findings suggest that future assessment of health effects of climate change should account for the continuous changes in temperature-related health risk and variations by factors such as age, cause of death, and location. © Crown copyright 2017.

Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Won Kyung; Lee, Hye Ah; Lim, Youn Hee; Park, Hyesook

2016-05-01

A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and ≥2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future

Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

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Stefan Zacharias

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate (1971–2000, near future climate (2021–2050, and remote future climate (2069–2098. Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively. In addition to changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2

Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities.

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Saha, Michael V; Davis, Robert E; Hondula, David M

2014-02-15

Mortality rates increase immediately after periods of high air temperature. In the days and weeks after heat events, time series may exhibit mortality displacement-periods of lower than expected mortality. We examined all-cause mortality and meteorological data from 1980 to 2009 in the cities of Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Phoenix, Arizona; Seattle, Washington; and St. Louis, Missouri. We modeled baseline mortality using a generalized additive model. Heat waves were defined as periods of 3 or more consecutive days in which the apparent temperature exceeded a variable percentile. For each heat wave, we calculated the sum of excess and deficit mortality. Mortality displacement, which is the ratio of grand sum deficit to grand sum excess mortality, decreased as a function of event strength in all cities. Displacement was close to 1.00 for the weakest events. At the highest temperatures, displacement varied from 0.35 (95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.55) to 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.97). We found strong evidence of acclimatization across cities. Without consideration of displacement effects, the net impacts of heat-wave mortality are likely to be significant overestimations. A statistically significant positive relationship between the onset temperature of nondisplaced heat mortality and mean warm-season temperature (R(2) = 0.78, P < 0.01) suggests that heat mortality thresholds may be predictable across cities.

Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010

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Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G.

2016-01-01

Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 °C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.

Geographical differences on the mortality impact of heat waves in Europe

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Sunyer Jordi

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Climate change is potentially the biggest global health threat in the 21st century. Deaths related with heat waves and spread of infectious diseases will be part of the menace though the major impact will be caused by malnutrition, diarrhea and extreme climate events. Consequently, loss of healthy life years as a result of global climate change is predicted to be 500 times greater in poor African populations than in European populations. However, the increase of more than 2°C of average temperature will result in a negative health impact in all regions, the potential benefits of a warmer temperature being negatively compensated, heat waves being one of the largest climate change threats in the developed world.

Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico

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Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo A.; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M.; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Martínez, Odalys; Taboas, Mariela; Bocanegra, Arelis; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael

2016-12-01

Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision

Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo A.; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M.; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Martínez, Odalys; Taboas, Mariela; Bocanegra, Arelis; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael

2018-05-01

Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision

Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Science.gov (United States)

Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo A; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Martínez, Odalys; Taboas, Mariela; Bocanegra, Arelis; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael

2018-05-01

Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision

The impact of heat waves on children's health: a systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhiwei; Sheffield, Perry E.; Su, Hong; Wang, Xiaoyu; Bi, Yan; Tong, Shilu

2014-03-01

Young children are thought to be particularly sensitive to heat waves, but relatively less research attention has been paid to this field to date. A systematic review was conducted to elucidate the relationship between heat waves and children's health. Literature published up to August 2012 were identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: "heatwave", "heat wave", "child health", "morbidity", "hospital admission", "emergency department visit", "family practice", "primary health care", "death" and "mortality". Of the 628 publications identified, 12 met the selection criteria. The existing literature does not consistently suggest that mortality among children increases significantly during heat waves, even though infants were associated with more heat-related deaths. Exposure to heat waves in the perinatal period may pose a threat to children's health. Pediatric diseases or conditions associated with heat waves include renal disease, respiratory disease, electrolyte imbalance and fever. Future research should focus on how to develop a consistent definition of a heat wave from a children's health perspective, identifying the best measure of children's exposure to heat waves, exploring sensitive outcome measures to quantify the impact of heat waves on children, evaluating the possible impacts of heat waves on children's birth outcomes, and understanding the differences in vulnerability to heat waves among children of different ages and from different income countries. Projection of the children's disease burden caused by heat waves under climate change scenarios, and development of effective heat wave mitigation and adaptation strategies that incorporate other child protective health measures, are also strongly recommended.

Heat stress mortality and desired adaptation responses of healthcare system in Poland

Science.gov (United States)

Błażejczyk, Anna; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof; Baranowski, Jarosław; Kuchcik, Magdalena

2018-03-01

Heat stress is one of the environmental factors influencing the health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large body of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during heat waves all over the world. This paper presents key results of research dealing with heat-related mortality (HRM) in various cities in Poland which cover about 25% of the country's population. Daily mortality and weather data reports for the years 1991-2000 were used. The intensity of heat stress was assessed by the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The research considers also the projections of future bioclimate to the end of twenty-first century. Brain storming discussions were applied to find necessary adaptation strategies of healthcare system (HCS) in Poland, to minimise negative effects of heat stress. In general, in days with strong and very strong heat stress, ones must expect increase in mortality (in relation to no thermal stress days) of 12 and 47%, respectively. Because of projected rise in global temperature and heat stress frequency, we must expect significant increase in HRM to the end of twenty-first century of even 165% in comparison to present days. The results of research show necessity of urgent implementation of adaptation strategies to heat in HCS.

The effect of heat waves on dairy cow mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitali, A; Felici, A; Esposito, S; Bernabucci, U; Bertocchi, L; Maresca, C; Nardone, A; Lacetera, N

2015-07-01

This study investigated the mortality of dairy cows during heat waves. Mortality data (46,610 cases) referred to dairy cows older than 24mo that died on a farm from all causes from May 1 to September 30 during a 6-yr period (2002-2007). Weather data were obtained from 12 weather stations located in different areas of Italy. Heat waves were defined for each weather station as a period of at least 3 consecutive days, from May 1 to September 30 (2002-2007), when the daily maximum temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference distribution (1971-2000). Summer days were classified as days in heat wave (HW) or not in heat wave (nHW). Days in HW were numbered to evaluate the relationship between mortality and length of the wave. Finally, the first 3 nHW days after the end of a heat wave were also considered to account for potential prolonged effects. The mortality risk was evaluated using a case-crossover design. A conditional logistic regression model was used to calculate odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for mortality recorded in HW compared with that recorded in nHW days pooled and stratified by duration of exposure, age of cows, and month of occurrence. Dairy cows mortality was greater during HW compared with nHW days. Furthermore, compared with nHW days, the risk of mortality continued to be higher during the 3 d after the end of HW. Mortality increased with the length of the HW. Considering deaths stratified by age, cows up to 28mo were not affected by HW, whereas all the other age categories of older cows (29-60, 61-96, and >96mo) showed a greater mortality when exposed to HW. The risk of death during HW was higher in early summer months. In particular, the highest risk of mortality was observed during June HW. Present results strongly support the implementation of adaptation strategies which may limit heat stress-related impairment of animal welfare and economic losses in dairy cow farm during HW. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science

Health impacts of the July 2010 heat wave in Québec, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Bustinza, Ray; Lebel, Germain; Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Chebana, Fateh

2013-01-21

One of the consequences of climate change is the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves which can cause serious health impacts. In Québec, July 2010 was marked by an unprecedented heat wave in recent history. The purpose of this study is to estimate certain health impacts of this heat wave. The crude daily death and emergency department admission rates during the heat wave were analyzed in relation to comparison periods using 95% confidence intervals. During the heat wave, the crude daily rates showed a significant increase of 33% for deaths and 4% for emergency department admissions in relation to comparison periods. No displacement of mortality was observed over a 60-day horizon. The all-cause death indicator seems to be sufficiently sensitive and specific for surveillance of exceedences of critical temperature thresholds, which makes it useful for a heat health-watch system. Many public health actions combined with the increased use of air conditioning in recent decades have contributed to a marked reduction in mortality during heat waves. However, an important residual risk remains, which needs to be more vigorously addressed by public health authorities in light of the expected increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves and the aging of the population.

Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region

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Aldis William

2004-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP. The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. Methods The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. Results The coefficients for capital (K, educational enrolment (EN, life expectancy (LE and exports (X had a positive sign; while imports (M and disaster mortality (DS were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. Conclusions We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns.

Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Orru, Hans; Andersson, Camilla; Ebi, Kristie L; Langner, Joakim; Aström, Christofer; Forsberg, Bertil

2013-02-01

Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change. Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with the model of atmospheric transport and chemistry (MATCH)-RCA3 (50×50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. We applied a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity. Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increases in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal, with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected. The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.

Heat wave during the summer 2003: relationship between temperature, air pollution and mortality in nine French towns; Vague de chaleur de l'ete 2003: relations entre temperatures, pollution atmospherique et mortalite dans neuf villes francaises

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

The objective of this study is to estimate, by taking the a particular period of summer 2003, the relationship between the exposure to ozone and the mortality risk. This estimation has for aim to realize a more valid, scientifically, evaluation of sanitary impact, for the period of heat wave that this one that could has been lead from anterior results. This study searches also to estimate, for the period of heat wave, the excess of mortality risk linked with the exposure to temperature and air pollution and the relative part of each of these factors in this combined effect. The analysis searches to evaluate an eventual displacement of mortality at short term that is to say a period of under mortality occurring at the immediate declining of the heat wave. (N.C.)

The effects of the 1996–2012 summer heat events on human mortality in Slovakia

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Výberči Dalibor

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The impacts of summer heat events on the mortality of the Slovak population, both in total and for selected population sub-groups, are the foci of this study. This research is the first of its kind, focusing on a given population, and therefore one priority was to create a knowledge base for the issue and to basically evaluate existing conditions for the heat-mortality relationship in Slovakia. This article also aims to fill a void in current research on these issues in Europe. In addition to overall effects, we focused individually on the major historical heat events which occurred in the summers of 2007, 2010 and 2012. During the heat events, a non-negligible negative response in mortality was recorded and fatal effects were more pronounced during particularly strong heat events and periods which lasted for two or more days. In general, females and the elderly were the most sensitive groups in the population and mortality was characterized by several specific effects in individual population groups. The most extreme heat periods were commonly followed by a deficit in mortality, corresponding to a short-term mortality displacement, the pattern of which varied in specific cases. In general, displaced mortality appeared to compensate for a large part of heat-induced excess deaths.

Urban and rural mortality rates during heat waves in Berlin and Brandenburg, Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gabriel, Katharina M.A.; Endlicher, Wilfried R.

2011-01-01

In large cities such as Berlin, human mortality rates increase during intense heat waves. Analysis of relevant data from north-eastern Germany revealed that, during the heat waves that occurred between 1990 and 2006, health risks were higher for older people in both rural and urban areas, but that, during the two main heat waves within that 17-year period of time, the highest mortality rates were from the city of Berlin, and in particular from its most densely built-up districts. Adaptation measures will need to be developed, particularly within urban areas, in order to cope with the expected future intensification of heat waves due to global climate change. - Highlights: → Periods of heat stress enhance mortality rates in Berlin and Brandenburg. → Heat-related mortality is an urban as well as a rural problem. → During extreme events highest mortality rates can be found in the city centre. → Mortality rates correlate well with the distribution of sealed surfaces. → Health risks are higher for older than for younger people. - During periods of severe heat stress the pattern of mortality rates in Berlin and Brandenburg was found to correlate well with the distribution of sealed surfaces.

Fine-scale spatial variability of heat-related mortality in Philadelphia County, USA, from 1983-2008: a case-series analysis

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Hondula David M

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background High temperature and humidity conditions are associated with short-term elevations in the mortality rate in many United States cities. Previous research has quantified this relationship in an aggregate manner over large metropolitan areas, but within these areas the response may differ based on local-scale variability in climate, population characteristics, and socio-economic factors. Methods We compared the mortality response for 48 Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs comprising Philadelphia County, PA to determine if certain areas are associated with elevated risk during high heat stress conditions. A randomization test was used to identify mortality exceedances for various apparent temperature thresholds at both the city and local scale. We then sought to identify the environmental, demographic, and social factors associated with high-risk areas via principal components regression. Results Citywide mortality increases by 9.3% on days following those with apparent temperatures over 34°C observed at 7:00 p.m. local time. During these conditions, elevated mortality rates were found for 10 of the 48 ZCTAs concentrated in the west-central portion of the County. Factors related to high heat mortality risk included proximity to locally high surface temperatures, low socioeconomic status, high density residential zoning, and age. Conclusions Within the larger Philadelphia metropolitan area, there exists statistically significant fine-scale spatial variability in the mortality response to high apparent temperatures. Future heat warning systems and mitigation and intervention measures could target these high risk areas to reduce the burden of extreme weather on summertime morbidity and mortality.

Temperature and Heat-Related Mortality Trends in the Sonoran and Mojave Desert Region

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Polioptro F. Martinez-Austria

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Extreme temperatures and heat wave trends in five cities within the Sonoran Desert region (e.g., Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona, in the United States and Ciudad Obregon and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora; and Mexicali, Baja California, in Mexico and one city within the Mojave Desert region (e.g., Las Vegas, Nevada were assessed using field data collected from 1950 to 2014. Instead of being selected by watershed, the cities were selected because they are part of the same arid climatic region. The data were analyzed for maximum temperature increases and the trends were confirmed statistically using Spearman’s nonparametric test. Temperature trends were correlated with the mortality information related with extreme heat events in the region. The results showed a clear trend of increasing maximum temperatures during the months of June, July, and August for five of the six cities and statically confirmed using Spearman’s rho values. Las Vegas was the only city where the temperature increase was not confirmed using Spearman’s test, probably because it is geographically located outside of the Sonoran Desert or because of its proximity to the Hoover Dam. The relationship between mortality and temperature was analyzed for the cities of Mexicali, Mexico and Phoenix. Arizona.

Vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in Seoul, Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, Ji-Young; Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L; Lee, Jong-Tae

2011-01-01

Studies indicate that the mortality effects of temperature may vary by population and region, although little is known about the vulnerability of subgroups to these risks in Korea. This study examined the relationship between temperature and cause-specific mortality for Seoul, Korea, for the period 2000-7, including whether some subgroups are particularly vulnerable with respect to sex, age, education and place of death. The authors applied time-series models allowing nonlinear relationships for heat- and cold-related mortality, and generated exposure-response curves. Both high and low ambient temperatures were associated with increased risk for daily mortality. Mortality risk was 10.2% (95% confidence interval 7.43, 13.0%) higher at the 90th percentile of daily mean temperatures (25 deg. C) compared to the 50th percentile (15 deg. C). Mortality risk was 12.2% (3.69, 21.3%) comparing the 10th (-1 deg. C) and 50th percentiles of temperature. Cardiovascular deaths showed a higher risk to cold, whereas respiratory deaths showed a higher risk to heat effect, although the differences were not statistically significant. Susceptible populations were identified such as females, the elderly, those with no education, and deaths occurring outside of a hospital for heat- and cold-related total mortality. Our findings provide supportive evidence of a temperature-mortality relationship in Korea and indicate that some subpopulations are particularly vulnerable.

Quantifying Livestock Heat Stress Impacts in the Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2014-12-01

Livestock heat stress, especially in regions of the developing world with limited adaptive capacity, has a largely unquantified impact on food supply. Though dominated by ambient air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation all affect heat stress, which can decrease livestock growth, milk production, reproduction rates, and mortality. Indices like the thermal-humidity index (THI) are used to quantify the heat stress experienced from climate variables. Livestock experience differing impacts at different index critical thresholds that are empirically determined and specific to species and breed. This lack of understanding has been highlighted in several studies with a limited knowledge of the critical thresholds of heat stress in native livestock breeds, as well as the current and future impact of heat stress,. As adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change depend on a solid quantitative foundation, this knowledge gap has limited such efforts. To address the lack of study, we have investigated heat stress impacts in the pastoral system of Sub-Saharan West Africa. We used a stochastic weather generator to quantify both the historic and future variability of heat stress. This approach models temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, the climate variables controlling heat stress. Incorporating large-scale climate as covariates into this framework provides a better historical fit and allows us to include future CMIP5 GCM projections to examine the climate change impacts on heat stress. Health and production data allow us to examine the influence of this variability on livestock directly, and are considered in conjunction with the confounding impacts of fodder and water access. This understanding provides useful information to decision makers looking to mitigate the impacts of climate change and can provide useful seasonal forecasts of heat stress risk. A comparison of the current and future heat stress conditions based on

A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri--1980 and 1995.

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Smoyer, K E

1998-08-01

This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6 degrees C (105 degrees F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions.

Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Chen, Dong; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2016-01-01

We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO_2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. - Temperature increases result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city in Australia.

Health impacts of the July 2010 heat wave in Québec, Canada

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Bustinza Ray

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background One of the consequences of climate change is the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves which can cause serious health impacts. In Québec, July 2010 was marked by an unprecedented heat wave in recent history. The purpose of this study is to estimate certain health impacts of this heat wave. Methods The crude daily death and emergency department admission rates during the heat wave were analyzed in relation to comparison periods using 95% confidence intervals. Results During the heat wave, the crude daily rates showed a significant increase of 33% for deaths and 4% for emergency department admissions in relation to comparison periods. No displacement of mortality was observed over a 60-day horizon. Conclusions The all-cause death indicator seems to be sufficiently sensitive and specific for surveillance of exceedences of critical temperature thresholds, which makes it useful for a heat health-watch system. Many public health actions combined with the increased use of air conditioning in recent decades have contributed to a marked reduction in mortality during heat waves. However, an important residual risk remains, which needs to be more vigorously addressed by public health authorities in light of the expected increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves and the aging of the population.

Effectiveness of National Weather Service heat alerts in preventing mortality in 20 US cities.

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Weinberger, Kate R; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Wellenius, Gregory A

2018-04-09

Extreme heat is a well-documented public health threat. The US National Weather Service (NWS) issues heat advisories and warnings (collectively, "heat alerts") in advance of forecast extreme heat events. The effectiveness of these alerts in preventing deaths remains largely unknown. To quantify the change in mortality rates associated with heat alerts in 20 US cities between 2001 and 2006. Because NWS heat alerts are issued based on forecast weather and these forecasts are imperfect, in any given location there exists a set of days of similar observed heat index in which heat alerts have been issued for some days but not others. We used a case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to compare mortality rates on days with versus without heat alerts among such eligible days, adjusting for maximum daily heat index and temporal factors. We combined city-specific estimates into a summary measure using standard random-effects meta-analytic techniques. Overall, NWS heat alerts were not associated with lower mortality rates (percent change in rate: -0.5% [95% CI: -2.8, 1.9]). In Philadelphia, heat alerts were associated with a 4.4% (95% CI: -8.3, -0.3) lower mortality rate or an estimated 45.1 (95% empirical CI: 3.1, 84.1) deaths averted per year if this association is assumed to be causal. No statistically significant beneficial association was observed in other individual cities. Our results suggest that between 2001 and 2006, NWS heat alerts were not associated with lower mortality in most cities studied, potentially missing a valuable opportunity to avert a substantial number of heat-related deaths. These results highlight the need to better link alerts to effective communication and intervention strategies to reduce heat-related mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modification of Heat-Related Mortality in an Elderly Urban Population by Vegetation (Urban Green) and Proximity to Water (Urban Blue): Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal.

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Burkart, Katrin; Meier, Fred; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Canário, Paulo; Alcoforado, Maria João; Scherer, Dieter; Endlicher, Wilfried

2016-07-01

Urban populations are highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of heat, with heat-related mortality showing intra-urban variations that are likely due to differences in urban characteristics and socioeconomic status. We investigated the influence of urban green and urban blue, that is, urban vegetation and water bodies, on heat-related excess mortality in the elderly > 65 years old in Lisbon, Portugal, between 1998 and 2008. We used remotely sensed data and geographic information to determine the amount of urban vegetation and the distance to bodies of water (the Atlantic Ocean and the Tagus Estuary). Poisson generalized additive models were fitted, allowing for the interaction between equivalent temperature [universal thermal climate index (UTCI)] and quartiles of urban greenness [classified using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)] and proximity to water (≤ 4 km vs. > 4 km), while adjusting for potential confounders. The association between mortality and a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile (24.8°C) was stronger for areas in the lowest NDVI quartile (14.7% higher; 95% CI: 1.9, 17.5%) than for areas in the highest quartile (3.0%; 95% CI: 2.0, 4.0%). In areas > 4 km from water, a 1°C increase in UTCI above the 99th percentile was associated with a 7.1% increase in mortality (95% CI: 6.2, 8.1%), whereas in areas ≤ 4 km from water, the estimated increase in mortality was only 2.1% (95% CI: 1.2, 3.0%). Urban green and blue appeared to have a mitigating effect on heat-related mortality in the elderly population in Lisbon. Increasing the amount of vegetation may be a good strategy to counteract the adverse effects of heat in urban areas. Our findings also suggest potential benefits of urban blue that may be present several kilometers from a body of water. Burkart K, Meier F, Schneider A, Breitner S, Canário P, Alcoforado MJ, Scherer D, Endlicher W. 2016. Modification of heat-related mortality in an elderly urban population by

A Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave-Related Mortality in New York City (2000-2011).

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Madrigano, Jaime; Ito, Kazuhiko; Johnson, Sarah; Kinney, Patrick L; Matte, Thomas

2015-07-01

As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability patterns, and corresponding adaptation strategies, are most usefully conceptualized at a local level. We used a case-only analysis to examine subject and neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between heat waves and mortality. All deaths of New York City residents from 2000 through 2011 were included in this analysis. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Modifying characteristics were obtained from the death record and geographic data sets. A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period. Compared with other warm-season days, deaths during heat waves were more likely to occur in black (non-Hispanic) individuals than other race/ethnicities [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], more likely to occur at home than in institutions and hospital settings (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.16), and more likely among those living in census tracts that received greater public assistance (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09). Finally, deaths during heat waves were more likely among residents in areas of the city with higher relative daytime summer surface temperature and less likely among residents living in areas with more green space. Mortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.

Excess Mortality Attributable to Extreme Heat in New York City, 1997-2013.

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Matte, Thomas D; Lane, Kathryn; Ito, Kazuhiko

2016-01-01

Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non-external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from -14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave-attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event-associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong

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Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

2017-11-01

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights

Susceptibility to mortality related to temperature and heat and cold wave duration in the population of Stockholm County, Sweden

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Joacim Rocklöv

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Ambient temperatures can cause an increase in mortality. A better understanding is needed of how health status and other factors modify the risk associated with high and low temperatures, to improve the basis of preventive measures. Differences in susceptibility to temperature and to heat and cold wave duration are relatively unexplored. Objectives: We studied the associations between mortality and temperature and heat and cold wave duration, stratified by age and individual and medical factors. Methods: Deaths among all residents of Stockholm County between 1990 and 2002 were linked to discharge diagnosis data from hospital admissions, and associations were examined using the time stratified case-crossover design. Analyses were stratified by gender, age, pre-existing disease, country of origin, and municipality level wealth, and adjusted for potential confounding factors. Results: The effect on mortality by heat wave duration was higher for lower ages, in areas with lower wealth, for hospitalized patients younger than age 65. Odds were elevated among females younger than age 65, in groups with a previous hospital admission for mental disorders, and in persons with previous cardiovascular disease. Gradual increases in summer temperatures were associated with mortality in people older than 80 years, and with mortality in groups with a previous myocardial infarction and with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD in the population younger than 65 years. During winter, mortality was associated with a decrease in temperature particularly in men and with the duration of cold spells for the population older than 80. A history of hospitalization for myocardial infarction increased the odds associated with cold temperatures among the population older than 65. Previous mental disease or substance abuse increased the odds of death among the population younger than 65. Conclusion: To increase effectiveness, we suggest preventive efforts

Summer heat and mortality in New York City: how hot is too hot?

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Metzger, Kristina B; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas D

2010-01-01

To assess the public health risk of heat waves and to set criteria for alerts for -excessive heat, various meteorologic metrics and models are used in different jurisdictions, generally without systematic comparisons of alternatives. We report such an analysis for New York City that compared maximum heat index with alternative metrics in models to predict daily variation in warm-season natural-cause mortality from 1997 through 2006. We used Poisson time-series generalized linear models and generalized additive models to estimate weather-mortality relationships using various metrics, lag and averaging times, and functional forms and compared model fit. A model that included cubic functions of maximum heat index on the same and each of the previous 3 days provided the best fit, better than models using maximum, minimum, or average temperature, or spatial synoptic classification (SSC) of weather type. We found that goodness of fit and maximum heat index-mortality functions were similar using parametric and nonparametric models. Same-day maximum heat index was linearly related to mortality risk across its range. The slopes at lags of 1, 2, and 3 days were flat across moderate values but increased sharply between maximum heat index of 95 degrees F and 100 degrees F (35-38 degrees C). SSC or other meteorologic variables added to the maximum heat index model moderately improved goodness of fit, with slightly attenuated maximum heat index-mortality functions. In New York City, maximum heat index performed similarly to alternative and more complex metrics in estimating mortality risk during hot weather. The linear relationship supports issuing heat alerts in New York City when the heat index is forecast to exceed approximately 95-100 degrees F. Periodic city-specific analyses using recent data are recommended to evaluate public health risks from extreme heat.

Temporal variation in the effect of heat and the role of the Italian heat prevention plan.

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de'Donato, F; Scortichini, M; De Sario, M; de Martino, A; Michelozzi, P

2018-05-08

The aim of the article is to evaluate the temporal change in the effect of heat on mortality in Italy in the last 12 years after the introduction of the national heat plan. Time series analysis. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between maximum apparent temperature and mortality in 23 Italian cities included in the national heat plan in four study periods (before the introduction of the heat plan and three periods after the plan was in place between 2005 and 2016). The effect (relative risks) and impact (attributable fraction [AF] and number of heat-related deaths) were estimated for mild summer temperatures (20th and 75th percentile maximum apparent temperature [Tappmax]) and extreme summer temperatures (75th and 99th percentile Tappmax) in each study period. A survey of the heat preventive measures adopted over time in the cities included in the Italian heat plan was carried out to better describe adaptation measures and response. Although heat still has an impact on mortality in Italian cities, a reduction in heat-related mortality is observed progressively over time. In terms of the impact, the heat AF related to extreme temperatures declined from 6.3% in the period 1999-2002 to 4.1% in 2013-2016. Considering the entire temperature range (20th vs 99th percentile), the total number of heat-related deaths spared over the entire study period was 1900. Considering future climate change and the health burden associated to heat waves, it is important to promote adaptation measures by showing the potential effectiveness of heat prevention plans. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kyselý, Jan; Kim, J.

2009-01-01

Roč. 38, č. 2 (2009), s. 105-116 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA ČR GC205/07/J044 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : heat wave * human mortality * East Asia * extreme events * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.250, year: 2009

Relationship between heat index and mortality of 6 major cities in Taiwan.

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Sung, Tzu-I; Wu, Pei-Chih; Lung, Shih-Chun; Lin, Chuan-Yao; Chen, Mu-Jean; Su, Huey-Jen

2013-01-01

Increased mortality, linked to events of extreme high temperatures, is recognized as one critical challenge to the public health sector. Therefore, this ecological study was conducted to assess whether this association is also significant in Taiwan and the characteristics of the relationship. Daily mean heat indices, from 1994 through 2008, were used as the predictor for the risk of increased mortality in populations from 6 major Taiwanese cities. Daily mortality data from 1994 through 2008 were retrieved from the Taiwan Death Registry, Department of Health, Taiwan, and meteorological data were acquired from the Central Weather Bureau. Poisson regression analyses using generalized linear models were applied to estimate the temperature-mortality relationship. Daily mean heat indices were calculated and used as the temperature metric. Overall, increased risk ratios in mortality were associated with increased daily mean heat indices. Significantly increased risk ratios of daily mortality were evident when daily mean heat indices were at and above the 95th percentile, when compared to the lowest percentile, in all cities. These risks tended to increase similarly among those aged 65 years and older; a phenomenon seen in the cities of Keelung, Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung, but not Chiayi. Being more vulnerable to heat stress is likely restricted to a short-term effect, as suggested by lag models which showed that there was dominantly an association during the period of 0 to 3 days. In Taiwan, predicting city-specific daily mean heat indices may provide a useful early warning system for increased mortality risk, especially for the elderly. Regional differences in health vulnerabilities should be further examined in relation to the differential social-ecological systems that affect them. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality

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Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest

Impact of two recent extreme heat episodes on morbidity and mortality in Adelaide, South Australia: a case-series analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Williams Susan

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Extreme heatwaves occurred in Adelaide, South Australia, in the summers of 2008 and 2009. Both heatwaves were unique in terms of their duration (15 days and 13 days respectively, and the 2009 heatwave was also remarkable in its intensity with a maximum temperature reaching 45.7°C. It is of interest to compare the health impacts of these two unprecedented heatwaves with those of previous heatwaves in Adelaide. Methods Using case-series analysis, daily morbidity and mortality rates during heatwaves (≥35°C for three or more days occurring in 2008 and 2009 and previous heatwaves occurring between 1993 and 2008 were compared with rates during all non-heatwave days (1 October to 31 March. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs were established for ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and mortality. Dose response effects of heatwave duration and intensity were examined. Results Ambulance call-outs during the extreme 2008 and 2009 events were increased by 10% and 16% respectively compared to 4.4% during previous heatwaves. Overall increases in hospital and emergency settings were marginal, except for emergency department presentations in 2008, but increases in specific health categories were observed. Renal morbidity in the elderly was increased during both heatwaves. During the 2009 heatwave, direct heat-related admissions increased up to 14-fold compared to a three-fold increase seen during the 2008 event and during previous heatwaves. In 2009, marked increases in ischaemic heart disease were seen in the 15-64 year age group. Only the 2009 heatwave was associated with considerable increases in total mortality that particularly affected the 15-64 year age group (1.37; 95% CI, 1.09, 1.71, while older age groups were unaffected. Significant dose-response relationships were observed for heatwave duration (ambulance, hospital and emergency setting and intensity (ambulance and mortality. Conclusions While

Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

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Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-08-01

Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of temperature extremes on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the Czech Republic

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Davídkovová, H.; Kyselý, J.; Plavcová, E.; Urban, A.; Kriz, B.; Kyncl, J.

2012-04-01

Elevated mortality associated with high ambient temperatures in summer represents one of the main impacts of weather extremes on human society. Increases in cardiovascular mortality during heat waves have been reported in many European countries; much less is known about which particular cardiovascular disorders are most affected during heat waves, and whether similar patterns are found for morbidity (hospital admissions). Relatively less understood is also cold-related mortality and morbidity in winter, when the relationships between weather and human health are more complex, less direct, and confounded by other factors such as epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. The present study analyses relationships between temperature extremes and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We make use of the datasets on hospital admissions and daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic (about 10.3 million) over 1994-2009. The data have been standardized to remove the effects of the long-term trend and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Periods when the morbidity/mortality data were affected by epidemics of influenza and other acute respiratory infections have been removed from the analysis. We use analogous definitions for hot and cold spells based on quantiles of daily average temperature anomalies, which allows for a comparison of the findings for summer hot spells and winter cold spells. The main aims of the study are (i) to identify deviations of mortality and morbidity from the baseline associated with hot and cold spells, (ii) to compare the hot- and cold-spell effects for individual cardiovascular diseases (e.g. ischaemic heart disease I20-I25, cerebrovascular disease I60-I69, hypertension I10, aterosclerosis I70) and to identify those diagnoses that are most closely linked to temperature extremes, (iii) to identify population groups most vulnerable to temperature extremes, and (iv) to compare the links to temperature extremes for morbidity and

Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

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Hajat, Shakoor; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd

2014-07-01

The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Minimization of heatwave morbidity and mortality.

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Kravchenko, Julia; Abernethy, Amy P; Fawzy, Maria; Lyerly, H Kim

2013-03-01

Global climate change is projected to increase the frequency and duration of periods of extremely high temperatures. Both the general populace and public health authorities often underestimate the impact of high temperatures on human health. To highlight the vulnerable populations and illustrate approaches to minimization of health impacts of extreme heat, the authors reviewed the studies of heat-related morbidity and mortality for high-risk populations in the U.S. and Europe from 1958 to 2012. Heat exposure not only can cause heat exhaustion and heat stroke but also can exacerbate a wide range of medical conditions. Vulnerable populations, such as older adults; children; outdoor laborers; some racial and ethnic subgroups (particularly those with low SES); people with chronic diseases; and those who are socially or geographically isolated, have increased morbidity and mortality during extreme heat. In addition to ambient temperature, heat-related health hazards are exacerbated by air pollution, high humidity, and lack of air-conditioning. Consequently, a comprehensive approach to minimize the health effects of extreme heat is required and must address educating the public of the risks and optimizing heatwave response plans, which include improving access to environmentally controlled public havens, adaptation of social services to address the challenges required during extreme heat, and consistent monitoring of morbidity and mortality during periods of extreme temperatures. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Small-area spatiotemporal analysis of heatwave impacts on elderly mortality in Paris: A cluster analysis approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Kihal-Talantikite, Wahida; Ragettli, Martina S; Deguen, Séverine

2017-08-15

Heat-waves have a substantial public health burden. Understanding spatial heterogeneity at a fine spatial scale in relation to heat and related mortality is central to target interventions towards vulnerable communities. To determine the spatial variability of heat-wave-related mortality risk among elderly in Paris, France at the census block level. We also aimed to assess area-level social and environmental determinants of high mortality risk within Paris. We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009 among people aged >65 at the French census block level within Paris. We used two heat wave days' definitions that were compared to non-heat wave days. A Bernoulli cluster analysis method was applied to identify high risk clusters of mortality during heat waves. We performed random effects meta-regression analyses to investigate factors associated with the magnitude of the mortality risk. The spatial approach revealed a spatial aggregation of death cases during heat wave days. We found that small scale chronic PM 10 exposure was associated with a 0.02 (95% CI: 0.001; 0.045) increase of the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We also found a positive association with the percentage of foreigners and the percentage of labor force, while the proportion of elderly people living in the neighborhood was negatively associated. We also found that green space density had a protective effect and inversely that the density of constructed feature increased the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We showed that a spatial variation in terms of heat-related vulnerability exists within Paris and that it can be explained by some contextual factors. This study can be useful for designing interventions targeting more vulnerable areas and reduce the burden of heat waves. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combined impact of lifestyle-related factors on total and cause-specific mortality among Chinese women: prospective cohort study.

OpenAIRE

Sarah J Nechuta; Xiao-Ou Shu; Hong-Lan Li; Gong Yang; Yong-Bing Xiang; Hui Cai; Wong-Ho Chow; Butian Ji; Xianglan Zhang; Wanqing Wen; Yu-Tang Gao; Wei Zheng

2010-01-01

Editors' Summary Background It is well established that lifestyle-related factors, such as limited physical activity, unhealthy diets, excessive alcohol consumption, and exposure to tobacco smoke are linked to an increased risk of many chronic diseases and premature death. However, few studies have investigated the combined impact of lifestyle-related factors and mortality outcomes, and most of such studies of combinations of established lifestyle factors and mortality have been conducted in ...

Combined impact of lifestyle-related factors on total and cause-specific mortality among Chinese women: prospective cohort study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah J Nechuta

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Although cigarette smoking, excessive alcohol drinking, obesity, and several other well-studied unhealthy lifestyle-related factors each have been linked to the risk of multiple chronic diseases and premature death, little is known about the combined impact on mortality outcomes, in particular among Chinese and other non-Western populations. The objective of this study was to quantify the overall impact of lifestyle-related factors beyond that of active cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Chinese women.We used data from the Shanghai Women's Health Study, an ongoing population-based prospective cohort study in China. Participants included 71,243 women aged 40 to 70 years enrolled during 1996-2000 who never smoked or drank alcohol regularly. A healthy lifestyle score was created on the basis of five lifestyle-related factors shown to be independently associated with mortality outcomes (normal weight, lower waist-hip ratio, daily exercise, never exposed to spouse's smoking, higher daily fruit and vegetable intake. The score ranged from zero (least healthy to five (most healthy points. During an average follow-up of 9 years, 2,860 deaths occurred, including 775 from cardiovascular disease (CVD and 1,351 from cancer. Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality decreased progressively with an increasing number of healthy lifestyle factors. Compared to women with a score of zero, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals for women with four to five factors were 0.57 (0.44-0.74 for total mortality, 0.29 (0.16-0.54 for CVD mortality, and 0.76 (0.54-1.06 for cancer mortality. The inverse association between the healthy lifestyle score and mortality was seen consistently regardless of chronic disease status at baseline. The population attributable risks for not having 4-5 healthy lifestyle factors were 33% for total deaths, 59% for CVD deaths, and 19% for cancer deaths.In this first study, to our knowledge, to

Exploring the association between heat and mortality in Switzerland between 1995 and 2013.

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Ragettli, Martina S; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2017-10-01

Designing effective public health strategies to prevent adverse health effect of hot weather is crucial in the context of global warming. In Switzerland, the 2003 heat have caused an estimated 7% increase in all-cause mortality. As a consequence, the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health developed an information campaign to raise public awareness on heat threats. For a better understanding on how hot weather affects daily mortality in Switzerland, we assessed the effect of heat on daily mortality in eight Swiss cities and population subgroups from 1995 to 2013 using different temperature metrics (daily mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax)), and aimed to evaluate variations of the heat effect after 2003 (1995-2002 versus 2004-2013). We applied conditional quasi-Poisson regression models with non-linear distributed lag functions to estimate temperature-mortality associations over all cities (1995-2013) and separately for two time periods (1995-2002, 2004-2013). Relative risks (RR) of daily mortality were estimated for increases in temperature from the median to the 98th percentile of the warm season temperature distribution. Over the whole time period, significant temperature-mortality relationships were found for all temperature indicators (RR (95% confidence interval): Tappmax: 1.12 (1.05; 1.18); Tmax: 1.15 (1.08-1.22); Tmean: 1.16 (1.09-1.23); Tmin 1.23 (1.15-1.32)). Mortality risks were higher at the beginning of the summer, especially for Tmin. In the more recent time period, we observed a non-significant reduction in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, with the age group > 74 years remaining the population at highest risk. High temperatures continue to be a considerable risk factor for human health in Switzerland after 2003. More effective public health measures targeting the elderly should be promoted with increased attention to the first heat events in summer and considering both high day-time and

Nonlinear Impact of Temperature on Mortality in France

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Zhang, A. T.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is posing unprecedented challenges to human welfare, yet there is much uncertainty about the cost of its impact. Accurate quantification of the social cost of carbon is crucial for designing effective climate policies that reduce emissions and mitigate the adverse impact of global warming, and human health is an important component of the calculation. Despite a growing body of literature documenting the relationship between temperature and mortality in the U.S., similar results using nationwide data have not been clearly established in other countries. Using random monthly variations in temperature for over a decade, this paper finds a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between monthly mortality rate and daily temperature in France between 1998 and 2012. Extremely hot days are associated with significantly higher mortality rates: One additional day with a mean temperature above 30°C, relative to a day in the 12°C to 15°C range, leads to 10 extra all-age, all-gender monthly deaths per 100,000. The effect of cold temperatures is milder: An extremely cold day with an average temperature from -9 °C to -6 °C increases all-age, all-gender mortality rate by about 1.2 per 100,000 each month. There is also notable heterogeneity in the observed nonlinear relationship across age groups and gender, in which males and the elderly are generally more susceptible to extreme temperatures than females and the young. This highlights that children and youth may be well protected through adaptive behaviors, such as spending more time indoors in temperature-controlled rooms and staying hydrated. Compared to studies done in the U.S., extremely hot days >30°C leads to considerably more deaths in France. Preliminary evidence suggests that there has been very limited adaptation despite two prominent heat waves in 2003 and 2006, although further analysis of electricity consumption and air conditioning usage is needed to ascertain the extent to

Differences on the effect of heat waves on mortality by sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics.

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Xu, Yihan; Dadvand, Payam; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Sartini, Claudio; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Borrell, Carme; Medina-Ramón, Mercè; Sunyer, Jordi; Basagaña, Xavier

2013-06-01

Mortality increases during heat waves have been reported worldwide. The magnitude of these increases can vary within regions according to sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics. The objectives of this study were to explore this variation and its determinants, and to identify the most heat-vulnerable areas by mapping heat vulnerability. We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis using daily mortality in the Barcelona metropolitan area during the warm seasons of 1999-2006. Temperature data on the date of death were assigned to each individual, which were assigned to their census tract of residence. Eight census tract-level variables on socioeconomic or built environment characteristics were obtained from the census. Residence surrounding greenness was obtained from satellite data. The relative risk (RR) of mortality after three consecutive hot days (defined as those exceeding the 95th percentile of maximum temperature) was calculated via conditional logistic regression. Effect modification was examined by including interaction terms. Analyses were based on 52 806 deaths. The effect of three consecutive hot days was a 30% increase in all-cause mortality (RR=1.30, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.38). Heterogeneity of this effect was observed across census tracts. The effect of heat on mortality was higher in the census tracts with a large percentage of old buildings (RR=1.21, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.46), manual workers (RR=1.25, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.64) and residents perceiving little surrounding greenness (RR=1.29, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.65). After three consecutive hot days, mortality doubled in the most heat-vulnerable census tracts. Sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics are associated to mortality risk during heat waves and are useful to build heat vulnerability maps.

Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

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Burkart, Katrin; Lesk, Corey; Bader, Daniel; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick

2016-01-01

Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

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Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Lowe

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related

Trends in the mortality effects of hot spells in central Europe: adaptation to climate change?

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Kysely, J.; Plavcova, E.

2013-12-01

Europe has recently been affected by several long-lasting and severe heat waves, particularly in July-August 2003 (western Europe), June-July 2006 (central Europe), July 2007 (southeastern Europe) and July 2010 (western Russia). The heat waves influenced many sectors of human activities, with enormous socio-economic and environmental impacts. With estimated death tolls exceeding 50,000, the 2003 and 2010 heat waves were the worst natural disasters in Europe over the last 50 years, yielding an example of how seriously may also high-income societies be affected by climate change. The present study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (around 10 million inhabitants, central Europe). Declining trends in the mortality impacts since 1986 are found, in spite of rising temperature trends. The findings remain unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account, and they are similar for all-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability in the examined population (Kyselý and Plavcová, 2012). The results are also consistent with those reported for other developed regions of the world (the US, western Europe, Australia) and suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that affect vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address

Impact of polystyrene microplastics on Daphnia magna mortality and reproduction in relation to food availability

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Aljaibachi, Rana

2018-01-01

Microplastics (MPs) in the environment continue to be a growing area of concern in terms of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic life. Whilst increasing numbers of studies are providing important insights into microparticle behaviour and impacts in the marine environment, a paucity of information exists regarding the freshwater environment. This study focusses on the uptake, retention and the impact of 2 µm polystyrene MPs in the freshwater cladoceran Daphnia magna in relation to food intake (algae Chlorella vulgaris), with MP size chosen to approximately match the cell size of the algae. Daphnia were exposed to varied concentrations of MPs and algae. When exposed to a single concentration of MPs Daphnia almost immediately ate them in large quantities. However, the presence of algae, even at low concentrations, had a significant negative impact on MP uptake that was not in proportion to relative availability. As MP concentrations increased, intake did not if algae were present, even at higher concentrations of MPs. This suggests that Daphnia are selectively avoiding eating plastics. Adult Daphnia exposed to MPs for 21 days showed mortality after seven days of exposure in all treatments compared to the control. However significant differences were all related to algal concentration rather than to MP concentration. This suggests that where ample food is present, MPs have little effect on adults. There was also no impact on their reproduction. The neonate toxicity test confirmed previous results that mortality and reproduction was linked to availability of food rather than MP concentrations. This would make sense in light of our suggestion that Daphnia are selectively avoiding eating microplastics. PMID:29686944

Impact of polystyrene microplastics on Daphnia magna mortality and reproduction in relation to food availability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rana Aljaibachi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Microplastics (MPs in the environment continue to be a growing area of concern in terms of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic life. Whilst increasing numbers of studies are providing important insights into microparticle behaviour and impacts in the marine environment, a paucity of information exists regarding the freshwater environment. This study focusses on the uptake, retention and the impact of 2 µm polystyrene MPs in the freshwater cladoceran Daphnia magna in relation to food intake (algae Chlorella vulgaris, with MP size chosen to approximately match the cell size of the algae. Daphnia were exposed to varied concentrations of MPs and algae. When exposed to a single concentration of MPs Daphnia almost immediately ate them in large quantities. However, the presence of algae, even at low concentrations, had a significant negative impact on MP uptake that was not in proportion to relative availability. As MP concentrations increased, intake did not if algae were present, even at higher concentrations of MPs. This suggests that Daphnia are selectively avoiding eating plastics. Adult Daphnia exposed to MPs for 21 days showed mortality after seven days of exposure in all treatments compared to the control. However significant differences were all related to algal concentration rather than to MP concentration. This suggests that where ample food is present, MPs have little effect on adults. There was also no impact on their reproduction. The neonate toxicity test confirmed previous results that mortality and reproduction was linked to availability of food rather than MP concentrations. This would make sense in light of our suggestion that Daphnia are selectively avoiding eating microplastics.

Evaluating heat-related mortality in Korea by objective classifications of 'air masses'

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kyselý, Jan; Huth, Radan; Kim, J.

2010-01-01

Roč. 30, č. 10 (2010), s. 1484-1501 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GC205/07/J044 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : weather type classifications * air masses * biometeorology * human mortality * South Korea Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.479, year: 2010

The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Jianguo; Zheng, Youfei; Tang, Xu; Guo, Changyi; Li, Liping; Song, Guixiang; Zhen, Xinrong; Yuan, Dong; Kalkstein, Adam J; Li, Furong

2010-01-01

With global warming forecast to continue into the foreseeable future, heat waves are very likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. In urban regions, these future heat waves will be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, and will have the potential to negatively influence the health and welfare of urban residents. In order to investigate the health effects of the urban heat island (UHI) in Shanghai, China, 30 years of meteorological records (1975-2004) were examined for 11 first- and second-order weather stations in and around Shanghai. Additionally, automatic weather observation data recorded in recent years as well as daily all-cause summer mortality counts in 11 urban, suburban, and exurban regions (1998-2004) in Shanghai have been used. The results show that different sites (city center or surroundings) have experienced different degrees of warming as a result of increasing urbanization. In turn, this has resulted in a more extensive urban heat island effect, causing additional hot days and heat waves in urban regions compared to rural locales. An examination of summer mortality rates in and around Shanghai yields heightened heat-related mortality in urban regions, and we conclude that the UHI is directly responsible, acting to worsen the adverse health effects from exposure to extreme thermal conditions.

Serum sclerostin: relation with mortality and impact of hemodiafiltration.

Science.gov (United States)

Lips, Lotte; de Roij van Zuijdewijn, Camiel L M; Ter Wee, Piet M; Bots, Michiel L; Blankestijn, Peter J; van den Dorpel, Marinus A; Fouque, Denis; de Jongh, Renate; Pelletier, Solenne; Vervloet, Marc G; Nubé, Menso J; Grooteman, Muriel P C

2017-07-01

The glycoprotein sclerostin (Scl; 22 kDa), which is involved in bone metabolism, may play a role in vascular calcification in haemodialysis (HD) patients. In the present study, we investigated the relation between serum Scl (sScl) and mortality. The effects of dialysis modality and the magnitude of the convection volume in haemodiafiltration (HDF) on sScl were also investigated. In a subset of patients from the CONTRAST study, a randomized controlled trial comparing HDF with HD, sScl was measured at baseline and at intervals of 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Patients were divided into quartiles, according to their baseline sScl. The relation between time-varying sScl and mortality with a 4-year follow-up period was investigated using crude and adjusted Cox regression models. Linear mixed models were used for longitudinal measurements of sScl. The mean (±standard deviation) age of 396 test subjects was 63.6 (±13.9 years), 61.6% were male and the median follow-up was 2.9 years. Subjects with the highest sScl had a lower mortality risk than those with the lowest concentrations [adjusted hazard ratio 0.51 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.31-0.86, P = 0.01)]. Stratified models showed a stable sScl in patients treated with HD (Δ +2.9 pmol/L/year, 95% CI -0.5 to +6.3, P = 0.09) and a decreasing concentration in those treated with HDF (Δ -4.5 pmol/L/year, 95% CI -8.0 to -0.9, P = 0.02). The relative change in the latter group was related to the magnitude of the convection volume. (i) A high sScl is associated with a lower mortality risk in patients with end-stage kidney disease; (ii) treatment with HDF causes sScl to fall; and (iii) the relative decline in patients treated with HDF is dependent on the magnitude of the convection volume. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Impact of Age at Smoking Initiation on Smoking-Related Morbidity and All-Cause Mortality.

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Choi, Seung Hee; Stommel, Manfred

2017-07-01

Using a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults, the aims of this study were to examine the impact of early smoking initiation on the development of self-reported smoking-related morbidity and all-cause mortality. National Health Interview Survey data from 1997 through 2005 were linked to the National Death Index with follow-up to December 31, 2011. Two primary dependent variables were smoking-related morbidity and all-cause mortality; the primary independent variable was age of smoking initiation. The analyses included U.S. population of current and former smokers aged ≥30 years (N=90,278; population estimate, 73.4 million). The analysis relied on fitting logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models. Among the U.S. population of smokers, 7.3% started smoking before age 13 years, 11.0% at ages 13-14 years, 24.2% at ages 15-16 years, 24.5% at ages 17-18 years, 14.5% at ages 19-20 years, and 18.5% at ages ≥21 years. Early smoking initiation before age 13 years was associated with increased risks for cardiovascular/metabolic (OR=1.67) and pulmonary (OR=1.79) diseases as well as smoking-related cancers (OR=2.1) among current smokers; the risks among former smokers were cardiovascular/metabolic (OR=1.38); pulmonary (OR=1.89); and cancers (OR=1.44). Elevated mortality was also related to early smoking initiation among both current (hazard ratio, 1.18) and former smokers (hazard ratio, 1.19). Early smoking initiation increases risks of experiencing smoking-related morbidities and all-cause mortality. These risks are independent of demographic characteristics, SES, health behaviors, and subsequent smoking intensity. Comprehensive tobacco control programs should be implemented to prevent smoking initiation and promote cessation among youth. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality related to air pollution with the moscow heat wave and wildfire of 2010.

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Shaposhnikov, Dmitry; Revich, Boris; Bellander, Tom; Bedada, Getahun Bero; Bottai, Matteo; Kharkova, Tatyana; Kvasha, Ekaterina; Lezina, Elena; Lind, Tomas; Semutnikova, Eugenia; Pershagen, Göran

2014-05-01

Prolonged high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires often occur together, and the two may interact in their effects on mortality. However, there are few data on such possible interactions. We analyzed day-to-day variations in the number of deaths in Moscow, Russia, in relation to air pollution levels and temperature during the disastrous heat wave and wildfire of 2010. Corresponding data for the period 2006-2009 were used for comparison. Daily average levels of PM10 and ozone were obtained from several continuous measurement stations. The daily number of nonaccidental deaths from specific causes was extracted from official records. Analyses of interactions considered the main effect of temperature as well as the added effect of prolonged high temperatures and the interaction with PM10. The major heat wave lasted for 44 days, with 24-hour average temperatures ranging from 24°C to 31°C and PM10 levels exceeding 300 μg/m on several days. There were close to 11,000 excess deaths from nonaccidental causes during this period, mainly among those older than 65 years. Increased risks also occurred in younger age groups. The most pronounced effects were for deaths from cardiovascular, respiratory, genitourinary, and nervous system diseases. Continuously increasing risks following prolonged high temperatures were apparent during the first 2 weeks of the heat wave. Interactions between high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires in excess of an additive effect contributed to more than 2000 deaths. Interactions between high temperatures and wildfire air pollution should be considered in risk assessments regarding health consequences of climate change.

Relation between Temperature and Mortality in Thirteen Spanish Cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marc Sáez

2010-08-01

Full Text Available In this study we examined the shape of the association between temperature and mortality in 13 Spanish cities representing a wide range of climatic and socio-demographic conditions. The temperature value linked with minimum mortality (MMT and the slopes before and after the turning point (MMT were calculated. Most cities showed a V-shaped temperature-mortality relationship. MMTs were generally higher in cities with warmer climates. Cold and heat effects also depended on climate: effects were greater in hotter cities but lesser in cities with higher variability. The effect of heat was greater than the effect of cold. The effect of cold and MMT was, in general, greater for cardio-respiratory mortality than for total mortality, while the effect of heat was, in general, greater among the elderly.

Long-term Impact of Bile Duct Injury on Morbidity, Mortality, Quality of Life, and Work Related Limitations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Booij, Klaske A. C.; de Reuver, Philip R.; van Dieren, Susan; van Delden, Otto M.; Rauws, Erik A.; Busch, Olivier R.; van Gulik, Thomas M.; Gouma, Dirk J.

2017-01-01

Assessment of long-term comprehensive outcome of multimodality treatment of bile duct injury (BDI) in terms of morbidity, mortality, quality of life (QoL), survival, and work related limitations. The impact of BDI on work ability is scarcely investigated. BDI patients referred to a tertiary center

Longer-Term Impact of High and Low Temperature on Mortality: An International Study to Clarify Length of Mortality Displacement

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Bell, Michelle L.; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Leon Guo, Yue-Liang; Guo, Yuming; Goodman, Patrick; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Lavigne, Eric; Michelozzi, Paola; Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo; Schwartz, Joel; Scortichini, Matteo; Sera, Francesco; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; Wu, Chang-fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Zeka, Ariana; Gasparrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

Background: In many places, daily mortality has been shown to increase after days with particularly high or low temperatures, but such daily time-series studies cannot identify whether such increases reflect substantial life shortening or short-term displacement of deaths (harvesting). Objectives: To clarify this issue, we estimated the association between annual mortality and annual summaries of heat and cold in 278 locations from 12 countries. Methods: Indices of annual heat and cold were used as predictors in regressions of annual mortality in each location, allowing for trends over time and clustering of annual count anomalies by country and pooling estimates using meta-regression. We used two indices of annual heat and cold based on preliminary standard daily analyses: a) mean annual degrees above/below minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and b) estimated fractions of deaths attributed to heat and cold. The first index was simpler and matched previous related research; the second was added because it allowed the interpretation that coefficients equal to 0 and 1 are consistent with none (0) or all (1) of the deaths attributable in daily analyses being displaced by at least 1 y. Results: On average, regression coefficients of annual mortality on heat and cold mean degrees were 1.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3, 3.1] and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6, 1.6) per degree, respectively, and daily attributable fractions were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.3) and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.4). The proximity of the latter coefficients to 1.0 provides evidence that most deaths found attributable to heat and cold in daily analyses were brought forward by at least 1 y. Estimates were broadly robust to alternative model assumptions. Conclusions: These results provide strong evidence that most deaths associated in daily analyses with heat and cold are displaced by at least 1 y. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1756 PMID:29084393

Effect of heat waves on morbidity and mortality due to Parkinson's disease in Madrid: A time-series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Linares, Cristina; Martinez-Martin, Pablo; Rodríguez-Blázquez, Carmen; Forjaz, Maria João; Carmona, Rocío; Díaz, Julio

2016-01-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) is one of the factors which are associated with a higher risk of mortality during heat waves. The use of certain neuroleptic medications to control some of this disease's complications would appear to be related to an increase in heat-related mortality. To analyse the relationship and quantify the short-term effect of high temperatures during heat wave episodes in Madrid on daily mortality and PD-related hospital admissions. We used an ecological time-series study and fit Poisson regression models. We analysed the daily number of deaths due to PD and the number of daily PD-related emergency hospital admissions in the city of Madrid, using maximum daily temperature (°C) as the main environmental variable and chemical air pollution as covariates. We controlled for trend, seasonalities, and the autoregressive nature of the series. There was a maximum daily temperature of 30°C at which PD-related admissions were at a minimum. Similarly, a temperature of 34°C coincides with an increase in the number of admissions. For PD-related admissions, the Relative Risk (RR) for every increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature was 1.13 IC95%:(1.03-1.23) at lags 1 and 5; and for daily PD-related mortality, the RR was 1.14 IC95%:(1.01-1.28) at lag 3. Our results indicate that suffering from PD is a risk factor that contributes to the excess morbidity and mortality associated with high temperatures, and is relevant from the standpoint of public health prevention plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of rotavirus vaccination on child mortality, morbidity, and rotavirus-related hospitalizations in Bolivia.

Science.gov (United States)

Inchauste, Lucia; Patzi, Maritza; Halvorsen, Kjetil; Solano, Susana; Montesano, Raul; Iñiguez, Volga

2017-08-01

The public health impact of rotavirus vaccination in countries with high child mortality rates remains to be established. The RV1 rotavirus vaccine was introduced in Bolivia in August 2008. This study describes the trends in deaths, hospitalizations, and healthcare visits due to acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and in rotavirus-related hospitalizations, among children rotavirus-related AGE was assessed using data from the active surveillance hospitals. Compared with the 2001-2008 pre-vaccine baseline, the mean number of rotavirus-related hospitalizations was reduced by 40.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 21.7-66.4%) among children rotavirus disease. Over the post-vaccine period, changes in rotavirus epidemiology were observed, manifested by variations in seasonality and by a shift in the mean age of those with rotavirus infection. The significant decrease in main AGE-related health indicators in children rotavirus vaccine provides evidence of a substantial public health impact of rotavirus vaccination in Bolivia, as a measure for protecting children against AGE. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, Jay S.; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick

2008-07-01

Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003—surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5°C (96°F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8°C (93°F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001 2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

For a Limited Time Only? How Long Can Trees Maintain Enhanced Chemical Defenses During Pre-Mortality Heat and Drought Stress

Science.gov (United States)

Trowbridge, A.; Adams, H. D.; Cook, A. A.; Hofland, M.; Weaver, D.; McDowell, N. G.

2016-12-01

The relative contribution of forest pests to climate and drought-induced tree mortality is complex and largely absent from current process-based models. Recent efforts have focused on developing frameworks to integrate insects into models of tree mortality, citing the need for a better mechanistic understanding of the links between stress-induced tree physiology and insect behavior and population dynamics. Secondary plant metabolites (SPMs) play a critical role in plant resistance and their synthesis and mobilization are coupled to carbon assimilation, hydraulic conductivity, and herbivory itself. Insect host choice also depends in part on behavioral responses to host SPMs. Monoterpenes are the dominant SPMs in conifers, and while high concentrations of monoterpenes are toxic to bark beetles, lower concentrations serve as precursors for a number of aggregation pheromones. Thus, the impact of monoterpenes on bark beetle behavior is complex and is impacted by environmental effects on primary metabolism including heat and drought stress. Here, we quantify the dynamics of piñon pine monoterpene chemistry as a function of predicted and prolonged drought stress implemented at the SUrvival MOrtality (SUMO) experimental site at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM, USA. In both woody and needle tissues, total monoterpene concentrations in ambient trees were not significantly different from those observed in trees exposed to heat stress, but drought trees showed higher total concentration while heat+drought trees were observed to have the highest levels (2 fold increase over ambient). These treatment effects were sustained over a two-year period despite seasonal variation in tree water status; however, total concentration in the xylem and phloem were closely coupled to tree water potential and treatment effects took longer to manifest relative to the needles. Individual compounds responded differently to the treatments, suggesting cyclase-level enzyme regulation, while �

Ambient high temperature and mortality in Jinan, China: A study of heat thresholds and vulnerable populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Yang, Jun; Liu, Zhidong; Xu, Lei; Gao, Jinghong; Liu, Xiaobo; Wu, Haixia; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jieqiong; Jiang, Baofa; Liu, Qiyong

2017-07-01

Understanding the health consequences of continuously rising temperatures-as is projected for China-is important in terms of developing heat-health adaptation and intervention programs. This study aimed to examine the association between mortality and daily maximum (T max ), mean (T mean ), and minimum (T min ) temperatures in warmer months; to explore threshold temperatures; and to identify optimal heat indicators and vulnerable populations. Daily data on temperature and mortality were obtained for the period 2007-2013. Heat thresholds for condition-specific mortality were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. We used a generalised additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution to examine the association between mortality and T max /T min /T mean values higher than the threshold values, after adjustment for covariates. T max /T mean /T min thresholds were 32/28/24°C for non-accidental deaths; 32/28/24°C for cardiovascular deaths; 35/31/26°C for respiratory deaths; and 34/31/28°C for diabetes-related deaths. For each 1°C increase in T max /T mean /T min above the threshold, the mortality risk of non-accidental-, cardiovascular-, respiratory, and diabetes-related death increased by 2.8/5.3/4.8%, 4.1/7.2/6.6%, 6.6/25.3/14.7%, and 13.3/30.5/47.6%, respectively. Thresholds for mortality differed according to health condition when stratified by sex, age, and education level. For non-accidental deaths, effects were significant in individuals aged ≥65 years (relative risk=1.038, 95% confidence interval: 1.026-1.050), but not for those ≤64 years. For most outcomes, women and people ≥65 years were more vulnerable. High temperature significantly increases the risk of mortality in the population of Jinan, China. Climate change with rising temperatures may bring about the situation worse. Public health programs should be improved and implemented to prevent and reduce health risks during hot days, especially for the identified vulnerable groups. Copyright

Global Mortality Impact of the 1957-1959 Influenza Pandemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics. METHODS: We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background...... levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic. RESULTS: The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10,000 population (95...... excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million-1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957-1959 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The global mortality rate of the 1957-1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact...

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Identifying heat-related deaths by using medical examiner and vital statistics data: Surveillance analysis and descriptive epidemiology - Oklahoma, 1990-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Matthew G; Brown, Sheryll; Archer, Pam; Wendelboe, Aaron; Magzamen, Sheryl; Bradley, Kristy K

2016-10-01

Approximately 660 deaths occur annually in the United States associated with excess natural heat. A record heat wave in Oklahoma during 2011 generated increased interest concerning heat-related mortality among public health preparedness partners. We aimed to improve surveillance for heat-related mortality and better characterize heat-related deaths in Oklahoma during 1990-2011, and to enhance public health messaging during future heat emergencies. Heat-related deaths were identified by querying vital statistics (VS) and medical examiner (ME) data during 1990-2011. Case inclusion criteria were developed by using heat-related International Classification of Diseases codes, cause-of-death nomenclature, and ME investigation narrative. We calculated sensitivity and predictive value positive (PVP) for heat-related mortality surveillance by using VS and ME data and performed a descriptive analysis. During the study period, 364 confirmed and probable heat-related deaths were identified when utilizing both data sets. ME reports had 87% sensitivity and 74% PVP; VS reports had 80% sensitivity and 52% PVP. Compared to Oklahoma's general population, decedents were disproportionately male (67% vs. 49%), aged ≥65 years (46% vs. 14%), and unmarried (78% vs. 47%). Higher rates of heat-related mortality were observed among Blacks. Of 95 decedents with available information, 91 (96%) did not use air conditioning. Linking ME and VS data sources together and using narrative description for case classification allows for improved case ascertainment and surveillance data quality. Males, Blacks, persons aged ≥65 years, unmarried persons, and those without air conditioning carry a disproportionate burden of the heat-related deaths in Oklahoma. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The 2006 California heat wave: impacts on hospitalizations and emergency department visits.

Science.gov (United States)

Knowlton, Kim; Rotkin-Ellman, Miriam; King, Galatea; Margolis, Helene G; Smith, Daniel; Solomon, Gina; Trent, Roger; English, Paul

2009-01-01

Climate models project that heat waves will increase in frequency and severity. Despite many studies of mortality from heat waves, few studies have examined morbidity. In this study we investigated whether any age or race/ethnicity groups experienced increased hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits overall or for selected illnesses during the 2006 California heat wave. We aggregated county-level hospitalizations and ED visits for all causes and for 10 cause groups into six geographic regions of California. We calculated excess morbidity and rate ratios (RRs) during the heat wave (15 July to 1 August 2006) and compared these data with those of a reference period (8-14 July and 12-22 August 2006). During the heat wave, 16,166 excess ED visits and 1,182 excess hospitalizations occurred statewide. ED visits for heat-related causes increased across the state [RR = 6.30; 95% confidence interval (CI), 5.67-7.01], especially in the Central Coast region, which includes San Francisco. Children (0-4 years of age) and the elderly (> or = 65 years of age) were at greatest risk. ED visits also showed significant increases for acute renal failure, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, electrolyte imbalance, and nephritis. We observed significantly elevated RRs for hospitalizations for heat-related illnesses (RR = 10.15; 95% CI, 7.79-13.43), acute renal failure, electrolyte imbalance, and nephritis. The 2006 California heat wave had a substantial effect on morbidity, including regions with relatively modest temperatures. This suggests that population acclimatization and adaptive capacity influenced risk. By better understanding these impacts and population vulnerabilities, local communities can improve heat wave preparedness to cope with a globally warming future.

Heat- and cold-stress effects on cardiovascular mortality and morbidity among urban and rural populations in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Urban, A.; Davídkovová, Hana; Kyselý, J.

2014-01-01

Roč. 58, č. 6 (2014), s. 1057-1068 ISSN 0020-7128 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : heat and cold stress * cardiovascular disease * mortality * morbidity * urban and rural differences * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.246, year: 2014

[The Impact of Medical And Non-Medical Factors on Population Mortality: Environment Factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Samorodskaia, I V; Semenov, V Yu; Boitsov, S A

2017-09-01

The second analysis was implemented concerning results of study evaluating impact of environmental factors on indices of population mortality on the basis of hard copy and digital publications in Russian and English in 1990-2016. It is established that air pollution by tiny particles of different origin results in a reliable increasing of risk of premature death independently of level of economic development and geographical positioning of country. In European countries this occurrence conditions shortage of of life-span on 8-13 months. The industrial factors are a cause of about 30% of involuntary occupational traumas. The limitation of access to clear drinking water specific to developing countries conditions death of more than 3 million people annually. The impact of waves of cold and heat on mortality depends on particular region, their duration and intensity, level of economic development of country, social economic conditions and age of particular groups of population and is estimated in 1-16% of additional deaths. The global climate warming is associated with decreasing of level of mortality. the negative impact of environment is increased by residing in underdeveloped regions, lower social economic status, lower level of education, population density, shortcomings of architecture and public space, the factors of environment play a significant role in population mortality. As regards their impact an uncertainty exists: it is quite difficult to separate an impact of single factor. So, different approaches are applied in different studies.

Acclimatization to extreme heat

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

2017-12-01

Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

Heat-related deaths in hot cities: estimates of human tolerance to high temperature thresholds.

Science.gov (United States)

Harlan, Sharon L; Chowell, Gerardo; Yang, Shuo; Petitti, Diana B; Morales Butler, Emmanuel J; Ruddell, Benjamin L; Ruddell, Darren M

2014-03-20

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90-97 °F; 32.2-36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

Life expectancy impacts due to heating energy utilization in China: Distribution, relations, and policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shaobin; Luo, Kunli

2018-01-01

The relation between life expectancy and energy utilization is of particular concern. Different viewpoints concerned the health impacts of heating policy in China. However, it is still obscure that what kind of heating energy or what pattern of heating methods is the most related with the difference of life expectancies in China. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively investigate the spatial relations between life expectancy at birth (LEB) and different heating energy utilization in China by using spatial autocorrelation models including global spatial autocorrelation, local spatial autocorrelation and hot spot analysis. The results showed that: (1) Most of heating energy exhibit a distinct north-south difference, such as central heating supply, stalks and domestic coal. Whereas spatial distribution of domestic natural gas and electricity exhibited west-east differences. (2) Consumption of central heating, stalks and domestic coal show obvious spatial dependence. Whereas firewood, natural gas and electricity did not show significant spatial autocorrelation. It exhibited an extinct south-north difference of heat supply, stalks and domestic coal which were identified to show significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (3) Central heating, residential boilers and natural gas did not show any significant correlations with LEB. While, the utilization of domestic coal and biomass showed significant negative correlations with LEB, and household electricity shows positive correlations. The utilization of domestic coal in China showed a negative effect on LEB, rather than central heating. To improve the solid fuel stoves and control consumption of domestic coal consumption and other low quality solid fuel is imperative to improve the public health level in China in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reshaping the Built Environment to Reduce Environmental and Public Health Impacts of Summertime Heat

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Bakewell, K.

2005-12-01

Many American cities are experiencing two types of warming trends in their local climate that due to global environmental change, and that due to local environmental change. Over the next five decades, urban areas within temperate regions may warm disproportionately compared to tropical and subtropical zones according to the IPCC Special Report on The Regional Impacts of Climate Change, and the frequency of very hot days in these climates is expected to approximately double for an increase of 2-3°C in the average summer temperature. As well, due to urbanized land-cover, air temperatures in cities can register 2 to 10 degrees F higher than in surrounding rural areas, resulting in a hotter environment, higher energy demand, and accelerated smog formation due to the urban heat island effect. Our previous research analyzed the temperature differences over time between NY Central Park (NYCP) station and 23 metropolitan regional weather stations classified according to distance and level of urbanization, and showed a heat island effect existing in NYC, with mean temperatures in the NYCP Station generally higher than the surrounding stations, ranging from 1.20 C to 3.02 C. A difference of at least 1 C already existed at the beginning of the 20th century between the mean temperature in NYC and its surrounding rural areas, and this difference increased over the twentieth century. Summertime heat can create heat stress and other health consequences for urban residents. In cities around the world, summer heat can lead to elevated mortality and morbidity rates, especially during extreme events. The epidemiological literature has identified factors in the built environment and demographic characteristics that can increase the risk of heat-related mortality. The elderly and people with pre-existing illnesses are especially vulnerable; also, being bedridden, living alone, and having poor access to public transportation or air-conditioned places. During the Chicago 1995 heat wave

Materialism moderates the impact of mortality salience on impulsive tendencies toward luxury brands.

Science.gov (United States)

Audrin, Catherine; Cheval, Boris; Chanal, Julien

2018-02-01

Luxury goods have been shown to help individuals coping with death-related anxiety. However, the extent to which the symbolic value allocated to possessions (i.e., materialism) moderates this effect is still unclear. Here, we investigated the impact of materialism on impulsive approach tendencies toward luxury clothing brands in a context of mortality salience. Results showed that the impact of mortality salience was moderated by materialism with lower impulsive approach tendencies toward luxury clothing brands observed in non-materialistic participants. These findings highlight how materialism values may impact luxury consumption through impulsive pathways in a situation of death-related anxiety.

Thermal extremes mortality risk assessment in urban areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Canário

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The impact of heat waves on mortality has been the subject of numerous studies and the focus of attention of various national and international governmental bodies. In the summer of 2003 alone, which was exceptionally hot, the number of deaths in 12 European countries increased by 70,000. The overall trend of warming will lead to an increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and to an increase in heat related mortality. The need to assess the risk of death due to extreme heat, at a detailed spatial scale, has determined the implementation of a research project based on a general model of risk for potentially destructive natural phenomena; the model uses the relationship between hazard and vulnerability and was designed primarily for urban areas. The major hazardous meteorological variables are those that determine the thermal complex (air temperature, radiative temperature, wind and humidity and the variables related to air quality (mainly ozone and Particulate matter. Vulnerability takes into account the population sensitivity (at various spatial scales and their exposure to thermal extremes.

The impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in Shanghai, China

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Wenjuan; Yang, Chunxue; Chu, Chen; Li, Tiantian; Tan, Jianguo; Kan, Haidong

2013-01-01

No prior studies in China have investigated the health impact of cold spell. In Shanghai, we defined the cold spell as a period of at least seven consecutive days with daily temperature below the third percentile during the study period (2001-2009). Between January 2001 and December 2009, we identified a cold spell between January 27 and February 3, 2008 in Shanghai. We investigated the impact of cold spell on mortality of the residents living in the nine urban districts of Shanghai. We calculated the excess deaths and rate ratios (RRs) during the cold spell and compared these data with a winter reference period (January 6-9, and February 28 to March 2). The number of excess deaths during the cold spell period was 153 in our study population. The cold spell caused a short-term increase in total mortality of 13 % (95 % CI: 7-19 %). The impact was statistically significant for cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.21, 95 % CI: 1.12-1.31), but not for respiratory mortality (RR = 1.14, 95 % CI: 0.98-1.32). For total mortality, gender did not make a statistically significant difference for the cold spell impact. Cold spell had a significant impact on mortality in elderly people (over 65 years), but not in other age groups. Conclusively, our analysis showed that the 2008 cold spell had a substantial effect on mortality in Shanghai. Public health programs should be tailored to prevent cold-spell-related health problems in the city.

Stressful social relations and mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Rikke; Christensen, Ulla; Nilsson, Charlotte Juul

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined the relationship between stressful social relations in private life and all-cause mortality. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between stressful social relations (with partner, children, other family, friends and neighbours, respectively) and all...... men and women aged 36-52 years, linked to the Danish Cause of Death Registry for information on all-cause mortality until 31 December 2011. Associations between stressful social relations with partner, children, other family, friends and neighbours, respectively, and all-cause mortality were examined....... CONCLUSIONS: Stressful social relations are associated with increased mortality risk among middle-aged men and women for a variety of different social roles. Those outside the labour force and men seem especially vulnerable to exposure....

Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sharon L. Harlan

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C. Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C. Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

2013-01-01

Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

Ranking of European Capitals According to the Impact of Future Heat Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Smid, M.; Costa, A. C.; Russo, S.; Pebesma, E. J.; Canut, C. G.

2017-12-01

In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using observations and an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a simple ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and population density as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that the selected ensemble provides solid simulation of climate characteristics over most of the targeted metropolitan areas. All the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in distant future, the extreme heat events in European capitals will be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of European capitals based on their vulnerability to the extreme heat could be of paramount importance to the decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality, especially with the foreseen increase of global mean temperature. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Geoinformatics: Enabling Open Cities (GEO-C), the project funded by the European Commission within the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, International Training Networks (ITN), European Joint Doctorates (EJD). Grant Agreement number 642332 — GEO-C — H2020-MSCA-ITN-2014.

Turbine related fish mortality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eicher, G.J.

1993-01-01

A literature review was conducted to assess the factors affecting turbine-related fish mortality. The mechanics of fish passage through a turbine is outlined, and various turbine related stresses are described, including pressure and shear effects, hydraulic head, turbine efficiency, and tailwater level. The methodologies used in determining the effects of fish passage are evaluated. The necessity of adequate controls in each test is noted. It is concluded that mortality is the result of several factors such as hardiness of study fish, fish size, concentrations of dissolved gases, and amounts of cavitation. Comparisons between Francis and Kaplan turbines indicate little difference in percent mortality. 27 refs., 5 figs

Mortality during a Large-Scale Heat Wave by Place, Demographic Group, Internal and External Causes of Death, and Building Climate Zone.

Science.gov (United States)

Joe, Lauren; Hoshiko, Sumi; Dobraca, Dina; Jackson, Rebecca; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Smith, Daniel; Harnly, Martha

2016-03-09

Mortality increases during periods of elevated heat. Identification of vulnerable subgroups by demographics, causes of death, and geographic regions, including deaths occurring at home, is needed to inform public health prevention efforts. We calculated mortality relative risks (RRs) and excess deaths associated with a large-scale California heat wave in 2006, comparing deaths during the heat wave with reference days. For total (all-place) and at-home mortality, we examined risks by demographic factors, internal and external causes of death, and building climate zones. During the heat wave, 582 excess deaths occurred, a 5% increase over expected (RR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.08). Sixty-six percent of excess deaths were at home (RR = 1.12, CI 1.07-1.16). Total mortality risk was higher among those aged 35-44 years than ≥ 65, and among Hispanics than whites. Deaths from external causes increased more sharply (RR = 1.18, CI 1.10-1.27) than from internal causes (RR = 1.04, CI 1.02-1.07). Geographically, risk varied by building climate zone; the highest risks of at-home death occurred in the northernmost coastal zone (RR = 1.58, CI 1.01-2.48) and the southernmost zone of California's Central Valley (RR = 1.43, CI 1.21-1.68). Heat wave mortality risk varied across subpopulations, and some patterns of vulnerability differed from those previously identified. Public health efforts should also address at-home mortality, non-elderly adults, external causes, and at-risk geographic regions.

Heat-Related Illnesses

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... Share this! EmergencyCareForYou » Emergency 101 » Heat-Related Illnesses Heat-Related Illnesses Dr. Glenn Mitchell , Emergency physician at ... about heat cramps and heat stroke and exhaustion. Heat Cramps Symptoms include muscle spasms, usually in the ...

Heat-Related Illnesses

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Full Text Available ... Share this! EmergencyCareForYou » Emergency 101 » Heat-Related Illnesses Heat-Related Illnesses Dr. Glenn Mitchell , Emergency physician at ... about heat cramps and heat stroke and exhaustion. Heat Cramps Symptoms include muscle spasms, usually in the ...

Relation between temperature and mortality in thirteen Spanish cities

OpenAIRE

Iñiguez, Carmen; Ballester, Ferran; Ferrándiz, Juan; Pérez Hoyos, Santiago; Sáez Zafra, Marc; López Estudillo, Antonio

2010-01-01

In this study we examined the shape of the association between temperature and mortality in 13 Spanish cities representing a wide range of climatic and socio-demographic conditions. The temperature value linked with minimum mortality (MMT) and the slopes before and after the turning point (MMT) were calculated. Most cities showed a V-shaped temperature-mortality relationship. MMTs were generally higher in cities with warmer climates. Cold and heat effects also depended on climate: effects wer...

Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project.

Science.gov (United States)

de' Donato, Francesca K; Leone, Michela; Scortichini, Matteo; De Sario, Manuela; Katsouyanni, Klea; Lanki, Timo; Basagaña, Xavier; Ballester, Ferran; Åström, Christofer; Paldy, Anna; Pascal, Mathilde; Gasparrini, Antonio; Menne, Bettina; Michelozzi, Paola

2015-12-08

The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996-2002 and 2004-2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.

Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate

Science.gov (United States)

de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.

2015-01-01

Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

The Impact of Exercise on Cancer Mortality, Recurrence, and Treatment-Related Adverse Effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Cormie, Prue; Zopf, Eva M; Zhang, Xiaochen; Schmitz, Kathryn H

2017-01-01

The combination of an increasing number of new cancer cases and improving survival rates has led to a large and rapidly growing population with unique health-care requirements. Exercise has been proposed as a strategy to help address the issues faced by cancer patients. Supported by a growing body of research, major health organizations commonly identify the importance of incorporating exercise in cancer care and advise patients to be physically active. This systematic review comprehensively summarizes the available epidemiologic and randomized controlled trial evidence investigating the role of exercise in the management of cancer. Literature searches focused on determining the potential impact of exercise on 1) cancer mortality and recurrence and 2) adverse effects of cancer and its treatment. A total of 100 studies were reviewed involving thousands of individual patients whose exercise behavior was assessed following the diagnosis of any type of cancer. Compared with patients who performed no/less exercise, patients who exercised following a diagnosis of cancer were observed to have a lower relative risk of cancer mortality and recurrence and experienced fewer/less severe adverse effects. The findings of this review support the view that exercise is an important adjunct therapy in the management of cancer. Implications on cancer care policy and practice are discussed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice; Fournier, Michel; Zayed, Joseph; Labrèche, France

2014-01-01

Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures in 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in

Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adam-Poupart, Ariane [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Smargiassi, Audrey [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), Montreal, QC (Canada); Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice [Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada); Fournier, Michel [Direction de santé publique, Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Zayed, Joseph [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada); Labrèche, France, E-mail: labreche.france@irsst.qc.ca [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada)

2014-10-15

Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures in 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in

Long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent work-related impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott-Marshall, Heather K; Tompa, Emile; Wang, Ying; Liao, Qing

2014-07-11

Recent estimates indicate that at least one in five activity-limiting injuries occurs at work. Of individuals who suffer these injuries approximately 10% experience some degree of functional impairment. We were interested in investigating long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent impairment from work injury and to examine whether work disability is a significant explanatory factor. We used a retrospective matched cohort methodology to examine differences in mortality rates between individuals with permanent impairment from a work injury and a group of non-injured controls over a 19-year period. We used a sample of impaired workers to investigate the impact of work disability on mortality risk using percentage of earnings recovery after injury as the key proxy measure. All analyses were stratified by sex. Permanent impairment from a work injury was predictive of premature mortality in both male and female claimants, though the risk was slightly higher among women. Work disability was a key explanatory factor in the rate of death among impaired workers, the effects being more pronounced in men. We also found that higher impairment level was associated with mortality in men but not in women. The study demonstrates the impact of permanent work-related impairment on longevity and identifies work disability as an important determinant of mortality risk. Given the disconnect between impairment ratings derived from standard diagnostic tools and labour-market activity after accident, more research is needed on the specific factors that contribute to work disability, particularly those related to psycho-social health and well-being.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans

2018-01-01

Background Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. Methods We modelled the urban climate...... climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence....

Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Science.gov (United States)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2018-03-01

In this work, the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1 °C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e., when UTCI is above 26 and 32 °C. The UTCI's ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health.

Heat- and cold-stress effects on cardiovascular mortality and morbidity among urban and rural populations in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Urban, Aleš; Davídkovová, Hana; Kyselý, Jan

2014-01-01

Roč. 58, č. 6 (2014), s. 1057-1068 ISSN 0020-7128 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1985 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : heat and cold stress * cardiovascular disease * mortality * morbidity * urban and rural differences * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.246, year: 2014 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-013-0693-4#page-1

Wood fuel consumption and mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from a dynamic panel study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sulaiman, Chindo; Abdul-Rahim, A S; Chin, Lee; Mohd-Shahwahid, H O

2017-06-01

This study examined the impact of wood fuel consumption on health outcomes, specifically under-five and adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa, where wood usage for cooking and heating is on the increase. Generalized method of moment (GMM) estimators were used to estimate the impact of wood fuel consumption on under-five and adult mortality (and also male and female mortality) in the region. The findings revealed that wood fuel consumption had significant positive impact on under-five and adult mortality. It suggests that over the studied period, an increase in wood fuel consumption has increased the mortality of under-five and adult. Importantly, it indicated that the magnitude of the effect of wood fuel consumption was more on the under-five than the adults. Similarly, assessing the effect on a gender basis, it was revealed that the effect was more on female than male adults. This finding suggests that the resultant mortality from wood smoke related infections is more on under-five children than adults, and also are more on female adults than male adults. We, therefore, recommended that an alternative affordable, clean energy source for cooking and heating should be provided to reduce the wood fuel consumption. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pediatric heat-related illness: recommendations for prevention and management [digest].

Science.gov (United States)

Dunn, Roberta J; Kim, Tommy Y; Chaudhari, Pradip

2017-08-22

Infants, children, and adolescents are at increased risk for heat-related illness due to their inability to remove themselves from dangerous environments. Evidence shows that morbidity and mortality from heat illness is related to the length of time core temperature is elevated, so rapid reduction and accurate serial measurements are crucial to prevention of organ system damage and death. The primary methods of patient cooling are conduction (ice-water immersion, cold packs) and convection (moisture and moving air). The choice of method used may depend on availability of equipment, but there is evidence that can guide optimal use of resources. This issue presents evidence-based recommendations and best practices in heat-illness resuscitation, including managing children who are obese, have special needs or take medications, and advocacy for prevention strategies. [Points & Pearls is a digest of Pediatric Emergency Medicine Practice].

Programmatic Impact of 5 Years of Mortality Surveillance of New York City Homeless Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Marder, Dova; Begier, Elizabeth; Gutkovich, Alexander; Mos, Robert; Griffin, Angela; Zimmerman, Regina; Madsen, Ann

2013-01-01

A homeless mortality surveillance system identifies emerging trends in the health of the homeless population and provides this information to key stakeholders in a timely and ongoing manner to effect evidence-based, programmatic change. We describe the first 5 years of the New York City homeless mortality surveillance system and, for the first time in peer-reviewed literature, illustrate the impact of key elements of sustained surveillance (i.e., timely dissemination of aggregate mortality data and real-time sharing of information on individual homeless decedents) on the programs of New York City’s Department of Homeless Services. These key elements had a positive impact on the department’s programs that target sleep-related infant deaths and hypothermia, drug overdose, and alcohol-related deaths among homeless persons. PMID:24148068

Crash-related mortality and model year: are newer vehicles safer?

Science.gov (United States)

Ryb, Gabriel E; Dischinger, Patricia C; McGwin, Gerald; Griffin, Russell L

2011-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether occupants of newer vehicles experience a lower risk of crash-related mortality. The occurrence of death was studied in relation to vehicle model year (MY) among front seat vehicular occupants, age ≥ 16 captured in the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) between 2000 and 2008. The associations between death and other occupant, vehicular and crash characteristics were also explored. Multiple logistic regression models for the prediction of death were built with model year as the independent variable and other characteristics linked to death as covariates. Imputation was used for missing data; weighted data was used. A total of 70,314 cases representing 30,514,372 weighted cases were available for analysis. Death occurred in 0.6% of the weighted population. Death was linked to age>60, male gender, higher BMI, near lateral direction of impact, high delta v, rollover, ejection and vehicle mismatch, and negatively associated with seatbelt use and rear and far lateral direction of impact. Mortality decreased with later model year groups (MY<94 0.78%, MY 94-97 0.53%, MY 98-04 0.51% and MY 05-08 0.38%, p=<0.0001). After adjustment for confounders, MY 94-97, MY 98-04 and MY 05-08 showed decreased odds of death [OR 0.80 (0.69-0.94), 0.82 (0.70-0.97), and 0.67 (0.47-0.96), respectively] when compared to MY <94. Newer vehicles are associated with lower crash-related mortality. Their introduction into the vehicle fleet may explain, at least in part, the decrease in mortality rates in the past two decades.

Effects of heat waves on daily excess mortality in 14 Korean cities during the past 20 years (1991-2010): an application of the spatial synoptic classification approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Dae-Geun; Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Jiyoung; Kim, Baek-Jo; Cho, Chun-Ho; Sheridan, Scott C.; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Kim, Ho; Yi, Seung-Muk

2017-11-01

The aims of this study are to explore the "offensive" summer weather types classified under the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) system and to evaluate their impacts on excess mortality in 14 Korean cities. All-cause deaths per day for the entire population were examined over the summer months (May-September) of 1991-2010. Daily deaths were standardized to account for long-term trends of subcycles (annual, seasonal, and weekly) at the mid-latitudes. In addition, a mortality prediction model was constructed through multiple stepwise regression to develop a heat-health warning system based on synoptic climatology. The result showed that dry tropical (DT) days during early summer caused excess mortality due to non-acclimatization by inhabitants, and moist tropical (MT) plus and double plus resulted in greater spikes of excess mortality due to extremely hot and humid conditions. Among the 14 Korean cities, highly excess mortality for the elderly was observed in Incheon (23.2%, 95%CI 5.6), Seoul (15.8%, 95%CI 2.6), and Jeonju (15.8%, 95%CI 4.6). No time lag effect was observed, and excess mortality gradually increased with time and hot weather simultaneously. The model showed weak performance as its predictions were underestimated for the validation period (2011-2015). Nevertheless, the results clearly revealed the efficiency of relative and multiple-variable approaches better than absolute and single-variable approaches. The results indicate the potential of the SSC as a suitable system for investigating heat vulnerability in South Korea, where hot summers could be a significant risk factor.

Disparities in Smoking-Related Mortality Among American Indians/Alaska Natives.

Science.gov (United States)

Mowery, Paul D; Dube, Shanta R; Thorne, Stacy L; Garrett, Bridgette E; Homa, David M; Nez Henderson, Patricia

2015-11-01

Smoking-related disparities continue to be a public health problem among American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) population groups and data documenting the health burden of smoking in this population are sparse. The purpose of this study was to assess mortality attributable to cigarette smoking among AI/AN adults relative to non-Hispanic white adults (whites) by calculating and comparing smoking-attributable fractions and mortality. Smoking-attributable fractions and mortality among AI/ANs (n=1.63 million AI/ANs) and whites were calculated for people living in 637 Indian Health Service Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties in the U.S., from mortality data collected during 2001-2009. Differences in smoking-attributable mortality between AI/ANs and whites for five major causes of smoking-related deaths were examined. All data analyses were carried out in 2013-2014. Overall, from 2001 to 2009, age-adjusted death rates, smoking-attributable fractions, and smoking-attributable mortality for all-cause mortality were higher among AI/ANs than among whites for adult men and women aged ≥35 years. Smoking caused 21% of ischemic heart disease, 15% of other heart disease, and 17% of stroke deaths in AI/AN men, compared with 15%, 10%, and 9%, respectively, for white men. Among AI/AN women, smoking caused 18% of ischemic heart disease deaths, 13% of other heart diseases deaths, and 20% of stroke deaths, compared with 9%, 7%, and 10%, respectively, among white women. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive tobacco control and prevention efforts that can effectively reach and impact the AI/AN population to prevent and reduce smoking. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Climate and heat-related emergencies in Chicago, Illinois (2003-2006).

Science.gov (United States)

Hartz, Donna A; Golden, Jay S; Sister, Chona; Chuang, Wen-Ching; Brazel, Anthony J

2012-01-01

Extreme heat events are responsible for more deaths in the United States than floods, hurricanes and tornados combined. Yet, highly publicized events, such as the 2003 heat wave in Europe which caused in excess of 35,000 deaths, and the Chicago heat wave of 1995 that produced over 500 deaths, draw attention away from the countless thousands who, each year, fall victim to nonfatal health emergencies and illnesses directly attributed to heat. The health impact of heat waves and excessive heat are well known. Cities worldwide are seeking to better understand heat-related illnesses with respect to the specifics of climate, social demographics and spatial distributions. This information can support better preparation for heat-related emergency situations with regards to planning for response capacity and placement of emergency resources and personnel. This study deals specifically with the relationship between climate and heat-related dispatches (HRD, emergency 911 calls) in Chicago, Illinois, between 2003 and 2006. It is part of a larger, more in-depth, study that includes urban morphology and social factors that impact heat-related emergency dispatch calls in Chicago. The highest occurrences of HRD are located in the central business district, but are generally scattered across the city. Though temperature can be a very good predictor of high HRD, heat index is a better indicator. We determined temperature and heat index thresholds for high HRD. We were also able to identify a lag in HRD as well as other situations that triggered higher (or lower) HRD than would typically be generated for the temperature and humidity levels, such as early afternoon rainfall and special events.

Climate change and health: temperature and health impacts

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Matooane, M

2009-03-01

Full Text Available /heat waves are anticipated to increase in frequency and magnitude in the 21st century. excessive temperatures lead to excess morbidity and mortality (all cause, respiratory, cardiovascular system mortality). Figure 1 depicts the impact of summer 2003... mortality temperature threshold below or above which every 1?C change increases mortality by ~4% and ~0.5%, respectively (mcmichael, et al., 2008). temperature-related mortality rates (all cause, cardiovascular and respiratory) are modified by many...

Impact of light rail transit on traffic-related pollution and stroke mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Eun Sug; Sener, Ipek Nese

2017-09-01

This paper evaluates the changes in vehicle exhaust and stroke mortality for the general public residing in the surrounding area of the light rail transit (LRT) in Houston, Texas, after its opening. The number of daily deaths due to stroke for 2002-2005 from the surrounding area of the original LRT line (exposure group) and the control groups was analyzed using an interrupted time-series analysis. Ambient concentrations of acetylene before and after the opening of LRT were also compared. A statistically significant reduction in the average concentration of acetylene was observed for the exposure sites whereas the reduction was negligible at the control site. Poisson regression models applied to the stroke mortality data indicated a significant reduction in daily stroke mortality after the opening of LRT for the exposure group, while there was either an increase or a considerably smaller reduction for the control groups. The findings support the idea that LRT systems provide health benefits for the general public and that the reduction in motor-vehicle-related air pollution may have contributed to these health benefits.

Effects of heat waves on daily excess mortality in 14 Korean cities during the past 20 years (1991-2010): an application of the spatial synoptic classification approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Dae-Geun; Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Jiyoung; Kim, Baek-Jo; Cho, Chun-Ho; Sheridan, Scott C; Kalkstein, Laurence S; Kim, Ho; Yi, Seung-Muk

2018-04-01

The aims of this study are to explore the "offensive" summer weather types classified under the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) system and to evaluate their impacts on excess mortality in 14 Korean cities. All-cause deaths per day for the entire population were examined over the summer months (May-September) of 1991-2010. Daily deaths were standardized to account for long-term trends of subcycles (annual, seasonal, and weekly) at the mid-latitudes. In addition, a mortality prediction model was constructed through multiple stepwise regression to develop a heat-health warning system based on synoptic climatology. The result showed that dry tropical (DT) days during early summer caused excess mortality due to non-acclimatization by inhabitants, and moist tropical (MT) plus and double plus resulted in greater spikes of excess mortality due to extremely hot and humid conditions. Among the 14 Korean cities, highly excess mortality for the elderly was observed in Incheon (23.2%, 95%CI 5.6), Seoul (15.8%, 95%CI 2.6), and Jeonju (15.8%, 95%CI 4.6). No time lag effect was observed, and excess mortality gradually increased with time and hot weather simultaneously. The model showed weak performance as its predictions were underestimated for the validation period (2011-2015). Nevertheless, the results clearly revealed the efficiency of relative and multiple-variable approaches better than absolute and single-variable approaches. The results indicate the potential of the SSC as a suitable system for investigating heat vulnerability in South Korea, where hot summers could be a significant risk factor.

Impacts of extreme heat on emergency medical service calls in King County, Washington, 2007-2012: relative risk and time series analyses of basic and advanced life support.

Science.gov (United States)

Calkins, Miriam M; Isaksen, Tania Busch; Stubbs, Benjamin A; Yost, Michael G; Fenske, Richard A

2016-01-28

Exposure to excessive heat kills more people than any other weather-related phenomenon, aggravates chronic diseases, and causes direct heat illness. Strong associations between extreme heat and health have been identified through increased mortality and hospitalizations and there is growing evidence demonstrating increased emergency department visits and demand for emergency medical services (EMS). The purpose of this study is to build on an existing regional assessment of mortality and hospitalizations by analyzing EMS demand associated with extreme heat, using calls as a health metric, in King County, Washington (WA), for a 6-year period. Relative-risk and time series analyses were used to characterize the association between heat and EMS calls for May 1 through September 30 of each year for 2007-2012. Two EMS categories, basic life support (BLS) and advanced life support (ALS), were analyzed for the effects of heat on health outcomes and transportation volume, stratified by age. Extreme heat was model-derived as the 95th (29.7 °C) and 99th (36.7 °C) percentile of average county-wide maximum daily humidex for BLS and ALS calls respectively. Relative-risk analyses revealed an 8 % (95 % CI: 6-9 %) increase in BLS calls, and a 14 % (95 % CI: 9-20 %) increase in ALS calls, on a heat day (29.7 and 36.7 °C humidex, respectively) versus a non-heat day for all ages, all causes. Time series analyses found a 6.6 % increase in BLS calls, and a 3.8 % increase in ALS calls, per unit-humidex increase above the optimum threshold, 40.7 and 39.7 °C humidex respectively. Increases in "no" and "any" transportation were found in both relative risk and time series analyses. Analysis by age category identified significant results for all age groups, with the 15-44 and 45-64 year old age groups showing some of the highest and most frequent increases across health conditions. Multiple specific health conditions were associated with increased risk of an EMS call including abdominal

Heat-related illness in China, summer of 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Shaohua; Huang, Cunrui; Bai, Li; Chu, Cordia; Liu, Qiyong

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events have occurred more frequently in China in recent years, leading to serious impacts on human life and the health care system. To identify the characteristics of individuals with heat-related illnesses in China during the summer of 2013, we collected the data from the Heat-related Illness Surveillance System in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). A total of 5758 cases were reported in the summer of 2013, mostly concentrated in urban areas around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. We found a difference in age distribution of percentage of deaths from heat-related illness between males and females. Severe cases in males mostly occurred in the age group 45-74 years but in females mostly in the age group over 75. A distributed lag non-linear model had been used to identify population vulnerabilities in Ningbo and Chongqing. The results show that there was a clear positive relationship between maximum temperature and heat-related illness, and the heat effect was nonlinear and could last for 3 days. The elderly and males in the range of 45-64 years old might be the most vulnerable people of heat-related illness in China. We also highlighted some deficiencies of the surveillance system, such that the reported data were not accurate, comprehensive, or timely enough at this stage.

Exploring the Utility of Model-based Meteorology Data for Heat-Related Health Research and Surveillance

Science.gov (United States)

Vaidyanathan, A.; Yip, F.

2017-12-01

Context: Studies that have explored the impacts of environmental exposure on human health have mostly relied on data from weather stations, which can be limited in geographic scope. For this assessment, we: (1) evaluated the performance of the meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS) model with measurements from weather stations for public health and specifically for CDC's Environmental Public Health Tracking Program, and (2) conducted a health assessment to explore the relationship between heat exposure and mortality, and examined region-specific differences in heat-mortality (H-M) relationships when using model-based estimates in place of measurements from weather stations.Methods: Meteorological data from the NLDAS Phase 2 model was evaluated against measurements from weather stations. A time-series analysis was conducted, using both station- and model-based data, to generate H-M relationships for counties in the U.S. The county-specific risk information was pooled to characterize regional relationships for both station- and model-based data, which were then compared to identify degrees of overlap and discrepancies between results generated using the two data sources. Results: NLDAS-based heat metrics were in agreement with those generated using weather station data. In general, the H-M relationship tended to be non-linear and varied by region, particularly the heat index value at which the health risks become positively significant. However, there was a high degree of overlap between region-specific H-M relationships generated from weather stations and the NLDAS model.Interpretation: Heat metrics from NLDAS model are available for all counties in the coterminous U.S. from 1979-2015. These data can facilitate health research and surveillance activities exploring health impacts associated with long-term heat exposures at finer geographic scales.Conclusion: High spatiotemporal coverage of environmental health data

Health impacts of workplace heat exposure: an epidemiological review.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiang, Jianjun; Bi, Peng; Pisaniello, Dino; Hansen, Alana

2014-01-01

With predicted increasing frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather due to changing climate, workplace heat exposure is presenting an increasing challenge to occupational health and safety. This article aims to review the characteristics of workplace heat exposure in selected relatively high risk occupations, to summarize findings from published studies, and ultimately to provide suggestions for workplace heat exposure reduction, adaptations, and further research directions. All published epidemiological studies in the field of health impacts of workplace heat exposure for the period of January 1997 to April 2012 were reviewed. Finally, 55 original articles were identified. Manual workers who are exposed to extreme heat or work in hot environments may be at risk of heat stress, especially those in low-middle income countries in tropical regions. At risk workers include farmers, construction workers, fire-fighters, miners, soldiers, and manufacturing workers working around process-generated heat. The potential impacts of workplace heat exposure are to some extent underestimated due to the underreporting of heat illnesses. More studies are needed to quantify the extent to which high-risk manual workers are physiologically and psychologically affected by or behaviourally adapt to workplace heat exposure exacerbated by climate change.

Comparison of UTCI with other thermal indices in the assessment of heat and cold effects on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Urban, Aleš; Kyselý, Jan

2014-01-01

Roč. 11, č. 1 (2014), s. 952-967 ISSN 1660-4601 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1985 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : UTCI * human thermal comfort * mortality * cardiovascular diseases * heat stress * cold stress Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.063, year: 2014 http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/11/1/952

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

2010-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

Valuing mortality impacts of smoke exposure from major southern California wildfires

Science.gov (United States)

Ikuho Kochi; Patricia A. Champ; John B. Loomis; Geoffrey H. Donovan

2012-01-01

While the mortality impacts of urban air pollution have been well addressed in the literature, very little is known about the mortality impacts and associated social cost from wildfire-smoke exposure (Kochi et al., 2010; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004). In an attempt to address this knowledge gap, we estimate the social cost associated with excess mortality...

Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. García-Herrera

2005-02-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air

Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. García-Herrera

2005-02-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value.

The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly

Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, J.; Zhao, F.; Reyer, C.; Breuer, L.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Eddy, T.; Elliott, J. W.; Francois, L. M.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Huber, V.; Kim, H.; Lotze, H. K.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral "super-ensemble" of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts.

Film Levitation of Droplet Impact on Heated Nanotube Surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Fei; Tong, Wei; Qiu, Lu

2017-11-01

Contact boiling of an impacting droplet impacting on a heated surface can be observed when the surface temperature is able to activate the nucleation and growth of vapor bubbles, the phenomena are related to nature and industrial application. The dynamic boiling patterns us is investigated when a single falling water droplet impacts on a heated titanium (Ti) surface covered with titanium oxide (TiO2) nanotubes. In the experiments, the droplets were generated from a flat-tipped needle connected to a syringe mounted on a syringe pump. The droplet diameter and velocity before impacting on the heated surface are measured by a high-speed camera with the Weber number is varied from 45 to 220. The dynamic wetting length, spreading diameter, levitation distance, and the associated parameter are measured. Interesting film levitation on titanium (Ti) surface has been revealed. The comparison of the phase diagrams on the nanotube surface and bare Ti surface suggests that the dynamic Leidenfrost point of the surface with the TiO2 nanotubes has been significantly delayed as compared to that on a bare Ti surface. The delay is inferred to result from the increase in the surface wettability and the capillary effect by the nanoscale tube structure. The further relation is discussed.

Excess cardiovascular mortality associated with cold spells in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyncl Jan

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The association between cardiovascular mortality and winter cold spells was evaluated in the population of the Czech Republic over 21-yr period 1986–2006. No comprehensive study on cold-related mortality in central Europe has been carried out despite the fact that cold air invasions are more frequent and severe in this region than in western and southern Europe. Methods Cold spells were defined as periods of days on which air temperature does not exceed -3.5°C. Days on which mortality was affected by epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections were identified and omitted from the analysis. Excess cardiovascular mortality was determined after the long-term changes and the seasonal cycle in mortality had been removed. Excess mortality during and after cold spells was examined in individual age groups and genders. Results Cold spells were associated with positive mean excess cardiovascular mortality in all age groups (25–59, 60–69, 70–79 and 80+ years and in both men and women. The relative mortality effects were most pronounced and most direct in middle-aged men (25–59 years, which contrasts with majority of studies on cold-related mortality in other regions. The estimated excess mortality during the severe cold spells in January 1987 (+274 cardiovascular deaths is comparable to that attributed to the most severe heat wave in this region in 1994. Conclusion The results show that cold stress has a considerable impact on mortality in central Europe, representing a public health threat of an importance similar to heat waves. The elevated mortality risks in men aged 25–59 years may be related to occupational exposure of large numbers of men working outdoors in winter. Early warnings and preventive measures based on weather forecast and targeted on the susceptible parts of the population may help mitigate the effects of cold spells and save lives.

The impact of winter heating on air pollution in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Qingyang; Ma, Zongwei; Li, Shenshen; Liu, Yang

2015-01-01

Fossil-fuel combustion related winter heating has become a major air quality and public health concern in northern China recently. We analyzed the impact of winter heating on aerosol loadings over China using the MODIS-Aqua Collection 6 aerosol product from 2004-2012. Absolute humidity (AH) and planetary boundary layer height (PBL) -adjusted aerosol optical depth (AOD*) was constructed to reflect ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. GIS analysis, standard statistical tests, and statistical modeling indicate that winter heating is an important factor causing increased PM2.5 levels in more than three-quarters of central and eastern China. The heating season AOD* was more than five times higher as the non-heating season AOD*, and the increase in AOD* in the heating areas was greater than in the non-heating areas. Finally, central heating tend to contribute less to air pollution relative to other means of household heating.

Absolute or relative? A comparative analysis of the relationship between poverty and mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Fritzell, Johan; Rehnberg, Johan; Bacchus Hertzman, Jennie; Blomgren, Jenni

2015-01-01

We aimed to examine the cross-national and cross-temporal association between poverty and mortality, in particular differentiating the impact of absolute and relative poverty. We employed pooled cross-sectional time series analysis. Our measure of relative poverty was based upon the standard 60% of median income. The measure of absolute, or fixed, poverty was based upon the US poverty threshold. Our analyses were conducted on data for 30 countries between 1978 and 2010, a total of 149 data points. We separately studied infant, child, and adult mortality. Our findings highlight the importance of relative poverty for mortality. Especially for infant and child mortality, we found that our estimates of fixed poverty is close to zero either in the crude models, or when adjusting for gross domestic product. Conversely, the relative poverty estimates increased when adjusting for confounders. Our results seemed robust to a number of sensitivity tests. If we agree that risk of death is important, the public policy implication of our findings is that relative poverty, which has close associations to overall inequality, should be a major concern also among rich countries.

The nexus between urbanization and PM2.5 related mortality in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Jin, Zhou; Ma, Zongwei; Liu, Xingyu; Zhang, Bing; Liu, Yang; Yu, Yang; Wang, Jinnan; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-08-01

The launch of China's new national urbanization plan, coupled with increasing concerns about air pollution, calls for better understandings of the nexus between urbanization and the air pollution-related health. Based on refined estimates of PM 2.5 related mortality in China, we developed an Urbanization-Excess Deaths Elasticity (U-EDE) indicator to measure the marginal PM 2.5 related mortality caused by urbanization. We then applied statistical models to estimate U-EDE and examined the modification effects of income on U-EDE. Urbanization in China between 2004 and 2012 led to increased PM 2.5 related mortality. A 1% increase in urbanization was associated with a 0.32%, 0.14%, and 0.50% increase in PM 2.5 related mortality of lung cancer, stroke, and ischemic heart disease. U-EDEs were modified by income with an inverted U curve, i.e., lower marginal impacts at the lowest and highest income levels. In addition, we projected the future U-EDE trend of China as a whole and found that China had experienced the peak of U-EDE and entered the second half of the inverted U-shaped curve. In the near future, national average U-EDE in China will decline along with the improvement of income level if no dramatic changes happen. However, the decreased U-EDE only implies that marginal PM 2.5 -related mortality brought by urbanization would decrease in China. Total health damage of urbanization will keep going up in the predictable future because the U-EDE is always positive. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of heat stress on conception rate of dairy cows in the moderate climate considering different temperature-humidity index thresholds, periods relative to breeding, and heat load indices.

Science.gov (United States)

Schüller, L K; Burfeind, O; Heuwieser, W

2014-05-01

The objectives of this retrospective study were to investigate the relationship between temperature-humidity index (THI) and conception rate (CR) of lactating dairy cows, to estimate a threshold for this relationship, and to identify periods of exposure to heat stress relative to breeding in an area of moderate climate. In addition, we compared three different heat load indices related to CR: mean THI, maximum THI, and number of hours above the mean THI threshold. The THI threshold for the influence of heat stress on CR was 73. It was statistically chosen based on the observed relationship between the mean THI at the day of breeding and the resulting CR. Negative effects of heat stress, however, were already apparent at lower levels of THI, and 1 hour of mean THI of 73 or more decreased the CR significantly. The CR of lactating dairy cows was negatively affected by heat stress both before and after the day of breeding. The greatest negative impact of heat stress on CR was observed 21 to 1 day before breeding. When the mean THI was 73 or more in this period, CR decreased from 31% to 12%. Compared with the average maximum THI and the total number of hours above a threshold of more than or 9 hours, the mean THI was the most sensitive heat load index relating to CR. These results indicate that the CR of dairy cows raised in the moderate climates is highly affected by heat stress. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hurricane & Tropical Storm Impacts over the South Florida Metropolitan Area: Mortality & Government

Science.gov (United States)

Colon Pagan, I. C.

2007-12-01

Since 1985, the South Florida Metropolitan area (SFMA), which covers the counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, has been directly affected by 9 tropical cyclones: four tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. This continuous hurricane and tropical storm activity has awakened the conscience of the communities, government, and private sector, about the social vulnerability, in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and others. Several factors have also been significant enough to affect the vulnerability of the South Florida Metropolitan area, like its geographic location which is at the western part of the Atlantic hurricane track, with a surface area of 6,137 square miles, and elevation of 15 feet. And second, from the 2006 Census estimate, this metropolitan area is the 7th most populous area in the United States supporting almost 1,571 individuals per square mile. Mortality levels due to hurricanes and tropical storms have fluctuated over the last 21 years without any signal of a complete reduction, a phenomenon that can be related to both physical characteristics of the storms and government actions. The average annual death count remains almost the same from 4.10 between 1985 and 1995 to 4 from 1996 to 2006. However, the probability of occurrence of a direct impact of an atmospheric disturbance has increase from 0.3 to 0.6, with an average of three hurricane or tropical storm direct impacts for every five. This analysis suggests an increasing problem with regard to atmospheric disturbances-related deaths in the South Florida Metropolitan area. In other words, despite substantial increases in population during the last 21 years, the number of tropical cyclone-related deaths is not declining; it's just being segregated among more storms. Gaps between each impact can be related to mortality levels. When that time increases in five years or more, such as Bob and Andrew or Irene and Katrina, or decreases in weeks or months, such as Harvey and Irene or Katrina and Wilma

Impact of Training traditional birth attendants on maternal mortality ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Impact of Training traditional birth attendants on maternal mortality and ... with focus on reducing the high rate of maternal and new-born mortality in rural settings in ... What is needed is to identify TBAs, map their distribution and train them on ...

The influence of social relations on mortality in later life

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasulo, Domenica; Christensen, Kaare; Tomassini, Cecilia

2005-01-01

PURPOSE: We examined whether the presence of a spouse and the frequency of interaction with children, relatives, and friends significantly influence the risk of dying in late life. We assessed these effects separately by gender, controlling for self-reported health. In addition, we examined whether...... interaction with the co-twin has a different impact on mortality for identical and fraternal twins. DESIGN AND METHODS: The data set consists of 2,147 Danish twins aged 75 years and older, who were followed prospectively from 1995 to 2001. We modeled the effect of social ties on mortality by using event...... history analysis. RESULTS: Survival is extended by having a spouse and close ties with friends and the co-twin. However, contact frequency with friends and the co-twin is significant, respectively, only for women and identical twins. IMPLICATIONS: Investigating social relations sheds light on the life...

The impact of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Broeders, Mireille; Moss, Sue; Nyström, Lennarth

2012-01-01

To assess the impact of population-based mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in Europe, considering different methodologies and limitations of the data.......To assess the impact of population-based mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality in Europe, considering different methodologies and limitations of the data....

Impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy on hospital mortality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Wilde, R. F.; Besselink, M. G. H.; van der Tweel, I.; de Hingh, I. H. J. T.; van Eijck, C. H. J.; Dejong, C. H. C.; Porte, R. J.; Gouma, D. J.; Busch, O. R. C.; Molenaar, I. Q.

Background: The impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) on mortality is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in hospital volumes and in-hospital mortality after PD in the Netherlands between 2004 and 2009. Methods: Nationwide data on International

Impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy on hospital mortality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Wilde, R. F.; Besselink, M. G. H.; van der Tweel, I.; de Hingh, I. H. J. T.; van Eijck, C. H. J.; Dejong, C. H. C.; Porte, R. J.; Gouma, D. J.; Busch, O. R. C.; Molenaar, I. Q.

2012-01-01

Background: The impact of nationwide centralization of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) on mortality is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in hospital volumes and in-hospital mortality after PD in the Netherlands between 2004 and 2009. Methods: Nationwide data on International

Anesthesia-related mortality in pediatric patients: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, Leopoldo Palheta; Pignaton, Wangles; Kusano, Priscila Sayuri; Módolo, Norma Sueli Pinheiro; Braz, José Reinaldo Cerqueira; Braz, Leandro Gobbo

2012-01-01

This systematic review of the Brazilian and worldwide literature aimed to evaluate the incidence and causes of perioperative and anesthesia-related mortality in pediatric patients. Studies were identified by searching EMBASE (1951-2011), PubMed (1966-2011), LILACS (1986-2011), and SciElo (1995-2011). Each paper was revised to identify the author(s), the data source, the time period, the number of patients, the time of death, and the perioperative and anesthesia-related mortality rates. Twenty trials were assessed. Studies from Brazil and developed countries worldwide documented similar total anesthesia-related mortality rates (anesthesia-related mortality rates in the past decade. Higher anesthesia-related mortality rates (2.4-3.3 per 10,000 anesthetics) were found in studies from developing countries over the same time period. Interestingly, pediatric perioperative mortality rates have increased over the past decade, and the rates are higher in Brazil (9.8 per 10,000 anesthetics) and other developing countries (10.7-15.9 per 10,000 anesthetics) compared with developed countries (0.41-6.8 per 10,000 anesthetics), with the exception of Australia (13.4 per 10,000 anesthetics). The major risk factors are being newborn or less than 1 year old, ASA III or worse physical status, and undergoing emergency surgery, general anesthesia, or cardiac surgery. The main causes of mortality were problems with airway management and cardiocirculatory events. Our systematic review of the literature shows that the pediatric anesthesia-related mortality rates in Brazil and in developed countries are similar, whereas the pediatric perioperative mortality rates are higher in Brazil compared with developed countries. Most cases of anesthesia-related mortality are associated with airway and cardiocirculatory events. The data regarding anesthesia-related and perioperative mortality rates may be useful in developing prevention strategies.

Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

Science.gov (United States)

Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

2018-04-01

Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat’s impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.

[Smoking impact on mortality in Spain in 2012].

Science.gov (United States)

Gutiérrez-Abejón, Eduardo; Rejas-Gutiérrez, Javier; Criado-Espegel, Paloma; Campo-Ortega, Eva P; Breñas-Villalón, María T; Martín-Sobrino, Nieves

2015-12-21

Smoking is an important public health problem, and is one of the main avoidable causes of morbidity and early mortality. The aim was to estimate the mortality attributable to smoking and its impact on premature mortality in Spain in the year 2012. Descriptive, cross-sectional study, carried out on the Spanish population aged ≥ 18 years in 2012. The prevalence of smoking by age and sex was obtained from the National Health Survey 2011-2012, and the number of deaths by age, sex and cause was obtained from the vital statistics of the National Institute of Statistics. The proportion of deaths attributable to smoking was calculated according to sex and age group, from the etiological fraction of the population. Likewise, loss of potential years of life lost (PYLL) and the mean potential years of life lost (MPYLL) were also calculated. In 2012, smoking caused 60,456 deaths which accounted for 15.23% of all deaths. Trachea-bronchial-lung cancer in men and other cardiopathies in women mostly contributed to this mortality. The PYLL were 184,426, and the MPYLL were 3.25 years in men and 2.42 years in women. In 2012, every day, 125 men and 40 women die from smoking-related conditions. The smoking prevalence has diminished in comparison with previous years and the number and percentage of deaths attributable to the smoking have increased in the last 20 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Winter mortality in relation to climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keatinge, W. R.; Donaldson, G. C.; Bucher, K.; Jendritzky, G.; Cordioli, E.; Martinelli, M.; Katsouyanni, K.; Kunst, A. E.; McDonald, C.; Näyhä, S.; Vuori, I.

2000-01-01

We report further details of the Eurowinter survey of cold related mortalities and protective measures against cold in seven regions of Europe, and review these with other evidence on the relationship of winter mortality to climate. Data for the oldest subject group studied, aged 65-74, showed that

A Relational Database of WHO Mortality Data Prepared to Facilitate Global Mortality Research

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Albert de Roos

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Detailed world mortality data such as collected by the World Health Organization gives a wealth of information about causes of death worldwide over a time span of 60 year. However, the raw mortality data in text format as provided by the WHO is not directly suitable for systematic research and data mining. In this Data Paper, a relational database is presented that is created from the raw WHO mortality data set and includes mortality rates, an ICD-code table and country reference data. This enriched database, as a corpus of global mortality data, can be readily imported in relational databases but can also function as the data source for other types of databases. The use of this database can therefore greatly facilitate global epidemiological research that may provide new clues to genetic or environmental factors in the origins of diseases.

Anesthesia-related mortality in pediatric patients: a systematic review

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Leopoldo Palheta Gonzalez

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This systematic review of the Brazilian and worldwide literature aimed to evaluate the incidence and causes of perioperative and anesthesia-related mortality in pediatric patients. Studies were identified by searching EMBASE (1951-2011, PubMed (1966-2011, LILACS (1986-2011, and SciElo (1995-2011. Each paper was revised to identify the author(s, the data source, the time period, the number of patients, the time of death, and the perioperative and anesthesia-related mortality rates. Twenty trials were assessed. Studies from Brazil and developed countries worldwide documented similar total anesthesia-related mortality rates (<1 death per 10,000 anesthetics and declines in anesthesia-related mortality rates in the past decade. Higher anesthesia-related mortality rates (2.4-3.3 per 10,000 anesthetics were found in studies from developing countries over the same time period. Interestingly, pediatric perioperative mortality rates have increased over the past decade, and the rates are higher in Brazil (9.8 per 10,000 anesthetics and other developing countries (10.7-15.9 per 10,000 anesthetics compared with developed countries (0.41-6.8 per 10,000 anesthetics, with the exception of Australia (13.4 per 10,000 anesthetics. The major risk factors are being newborn or less than 1 year old, ASA III or worse physical status, and undergoing emergency surgery, general anesthesia, or cardiac surgery. The main causes of mortality were problems with airway management and cardiocirculatory events. Our systematic review of the literature shows that the pediatric anesthesia-related mortality rates in Brazil and in developed countries are similar, whereas the pediatric perioperative mortality rates are higher in Brazil compared with developed countries. Most cases of anesthesiarelated mortality are associated with airway and cardiocirculatory events. The data regarding anesthesia-related and perioperative mortality rates may be useful in developing prevention

Racemization of Valine by Impact-Induced Heating

Science.gov (United States)

Furukawa, Yoshihiro; Takase, Atsushi; Sekine, Toshimori; Kakegawa, Takeshi; Kobayashi, Takamichi

2018-03-01

Homochirality plays an important role in all living organisms but its origin remains unclear. It also remains unclear whether such chiral molecules survived terrestrial heavy impact events. Impacts of extraterrestrial objects on early oceans were frequent and could have affected the chirality of oceanic amino acids when such amino acids accumulated during impacts. This study investigated the effects of shock-induced heating on enantiomeric change of valine with minerals such as olivine ([Mg0.9, Fe0.1]2SiO4), hematite (Fe2O3), and calcite (CaCO3). With a shock wave generated by an impact at 0.8 km/s, both d- and l-enriched valine were significantly decomposed and partially racemized under all experimental conditions. Different minerals had different shock impedances; therefore, they provided different P-T conditions for identical impacts. Furthermore, the high pH of calcite promoted the racemization of valine. The results indicate that in natural hypervelocity impacts, amino acids in shocked oceanic water would have decomposed completely, since impact velocity and the duration of shock compression and heating are typically greater in hypervelocity impact events than those in experiments. Even with the shock wave by the impact of small and decelerated projectiles in which amino acids survive, the shock heating may generate sufficient heat for significant racemization in shocked oceanic water. However, the duration of shock induced heating by small projectiles is limited and the population of such decelerated projectiles would be limited. Therefore, even though impacts of asteroids and meteorites were frequent on the prebiotic Earth, impact events would not have significantly changed the ee of proteinogenic amino acids accumulated in the entire ocean.

Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study.

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Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike; Mizdrak, Anja; Nnoaham, Kelechi; Blakely, Tony

2015-01-01

Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts.

Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study.

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Cliona Ni Mhurchu

Full Text Available Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP in New Zealand.A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated.A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700 DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality. A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100 DPP (5.0%, and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700 DPP (6.8%. Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000 DPP (8.1% mortality annually. A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700 DPP annually (4.0%. Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms.Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts.

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

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Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2013-01-01

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

Science.gov (United States)

Baldi, Marina

2014-05-01

In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and

Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland.

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Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ragettli, Martina S; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2016-01-01

In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated. Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions. 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more. Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.

Modelling domestic stock energy use and heat-related health risk : a GIS-based bottom-up modelling approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mavrogianni, A.; Davies, M. [Univ. College London, London (United Kingdom). Bartlett School of Graduate Studies; Chalabi, Z.; Wilkinson, P. [London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medecine, London (United Kingdom); Kolokotroni, M. [Brunel Univ., London (United Kingdom). School of Engineering Design

2009-07-01

Approximately 8 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions produced in the United Kingdom are produced in London, one of the fastest growing cities worldwide. Based on the projected rates of population and economic growth, a 15 per cent increase of emissions is predicted. In addition to the national target to cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, the Mayor of London Climate Change Action Plan set a target to reduce London's CO{sub 2} emissions by 60 per cent by 2025. Significant carbon savings can be achieved in the building sector, particularly since 38 per cent of the total delivered energy in London is associated with domestic energy use. This paper demonstrated a systematic approach towards exploring the impact of urban built form and the combined effect of climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon on the levels of domestic energy consumption and heat-related health risk in London. It presented work in progress on the development of a GIS-based energy consumption model and heat vulnerability index of the Greater London Area domestic stock. Comparison of the model output for 10 case study areas with topdown energy statistics revealed that the model successfully ranks areas based on their domestic space heating demand. The health module can be used to determine environments prone to higher risk of heat stress by investigating urban texture factors. A newly developed epidemiological model will be feed into the health module to examine the influence on risk of heat-related mortality of local urban built form characteristics. The epidemiological model is based on multi-variable analysis of deaths during heat wave and non-heat wave days. 29 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

The impact of traffic-related pollution and temperature on adverse birth outcomes in Madrid. An analysis of time series

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Julio Díaz

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Preterm birth (< 37 weeks, low birth weight (< 2500 g and fetal mortality are perinatal morbi-mortality causes impacting public health, society and the economy. Their etiology is multifaceted. There is scientific evidence pointing to environmental variables being risk factors. The purpose of this study was to analyze and quantify the impact on a daily and a weekly basis of PM2.5, NO2 and O3 (μg/m3, noise levels (Leq, and temperature (°C on variables detrimental to health in Madrid from 2001 till 2009. Poisson regression models were prepared from an ecological study of time series, and the results were expressed in terms of the Relative Risk (RR. The environmental variables were included in previously identified explanatory delays. 298,705 births were analyzed: the average weekly prematurity was 7.5, the average low weight 6.9, and the average fetal mortality 3.7. In the case of preterm births, a relation with PM2.5 during the 2nd quarter of pregnancy [RR: 1.026 (1.018-1.034] and with Leq in the week prior to childbirth [RR: 1.020 (1.012-1.028] was detected. This impact was also noticeable in the daily results. In addition, heat waves also affect prematurity. With regard to low birth weight, noise levels had an impact throughout the pregnancy and the effect of NO2 during the 2nd quarter thereof. As for fetal mortality, the most significant effects were those of the three analyzed pollutants during the 2nd and 3rd quarters. The gestating population is a group that is particularly vulnerable to the analyzed environmental factors, so it should be taken into account in the existing prevention plans.

Impacts of Intercontinental Transport of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter on Human Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Anenberg, Susan C.; West, J. Jason; Hongbin, Yu; Chin, Mian; Schulz, Michael; Bergmann, Dan; Bey, Isabelle; Bian, Huisheng; Diehl, Thomas; Fiore, Arlene;

Temperature-related mortality in 17 large Chinese cities: how heat and cold affect mortality in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Wenjuan; Chen, Renjie; Kan, Haidong

2014-10-01

Few multicity studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of cold and hot temperatures in China. We aimed to examine the relationship between temperature and daily mortality in 17 large Chinese cities. We first calculated city-specific effect of temperature using time-series regression models combined with distributed lag nonlinear models; then we pooled the city-specific estimates with the Bayesian hierarchical models. The cold effects lasted longer than the hot effects. For the cold effects, a 1 °C decrease from the 25th to 1st percentiles of temperature over lags 0-14 days was associated with increases of 1.69% [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.01%, 2.36%], 2.49% (95% PI: 1.53%, 3.46%) and 1.60% (95% PI: 0.32%, 2.87%) in total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. For the hot effects, a 1 °C increase from the 75th to 99th percentiles of temperature was associated with corresponding increases of 2.83% (95% PI: 1.42%, 4.24%), 3.02% (95% PI: 1.33%, 4.71%) and 4.64% (95% PI: 1.96%, 7.31%). The latitudes, number of air conditioning per household and disposable income per capita were significant modifiers for cold effects; the proportion of the elderly was a significant modifier for hot effects. This largest epidemiological study of temperature to date in China suggested that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased mortality. Our findings may have important implications for the public health policies in China. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interplay between financial assets and social relations on decline in physical function and mortality among older people

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Terese Sara Høj; Lund, Rikke; Siersma, Volkert Dirk

2017-01-01

It is well established that socioeconomic position (SEP) and social relations impact physical function and mortality in old age. Due to differential vulnerability, few social relations may lead to greater decline in physical function and mortality among older people with low compared to high SEP....... The aim was to investigate whether older people with few social relations experience greater decline in physical function and mortality when also subject to low financial assets? The study population included 4060 older people aged 75 or 80 years at baseline in 1998–1999. Social relations at baseline...... and physical function at baseline and after 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 years were obtained from questionnaires. Financial assets at baseline and mortality during 10 years of follow-up were obtained from registers. Analyses of the associations between financial assets combined with social relations and decline...

Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

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Nelly Ziadé

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

Renewable heating: Perspectives and the impact of policy instruments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kranzl, Lukas; Hummel, Marcus; Müller, Andreas; Steinbach, Jan

2013-01-01

In the light of the EU directive for renewable energy (2009/28/EC) this paper deals with the question how various policy instruments could impact the development of renewable heating technologies. The paper applies the simulation model Invert/EE-Lab for the building related heat demand in selected European countries (Austria, Lithuania and United Kingdom). The resulting scenarios up to 2030 are compared to RES-Heat targets from literature, stakeholder consultation processes and the targets in the national renewable energy action plans submitted by EU Member States in 2010. The results demonstrate that use obligations for renewable heating can be effective in achieving RES-Heat market growth. However, in order to attain a balanced technology mix and more ambitious targets, policy packages are required combining use obligations with economic incentives and accompanying measures. Technology specific conclusions are derived. Moreover, conclusions indicate that the action plans are not always consistent with policy measures in place or under discussion. - Highlights: • Modeling of RES-Heat policies in the building sector. • Application of the model Invert/EE-Lab for the cases of AT, LT, UK. • RES-Heat use obligations are effective but should be integrated in policy packages. • The design of use obligations has substantial impact on the RES-H technology mix. • National renewable energy action plans are not always consistent with policies

Mortality in women and men in relation to smoking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete; Andersen, Per Kragh

1998-01-01

characteristics differed considerably with gender, particularly in the older subjects. Overall mortality rates in smokers were approximately twice those in people who never smoked. Positive associations with smoking in both men and women were confirmed for all-cause mortality as well as mortality from respiratory...... disease, vascular disease, lung cancer, and other tobacco-related cancers. Despite large gender differences in age at smoking debut, total and cause-specific relative mortality in smokers was similar in men and women. After excluding non-inhalers, relative risks associated with smoking for respiratory......BACKGROUND: Mortality from smoking-related diseases in women is increasing worldwide. Studies comparing hazards associated with smoking in women and men based on a sufficient number of heavy smokers of both genders are lacking. METHODS: We used pooled data from three prospective population studies...

Heat stress and public health: a critical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Kovats, R Sari; Hajat, Shakoor

2008-01-01

Heat is an environmental and occupational hazard. The prevention of deaths in the community caused by extreme high temperatures (heat waves) is now an issue of public health concern. The risk of heat-related mortality increases with natural aging, but persons with particular social and/or physical vulnerability are also at risk. Important differences in vulnerability exist between populations, depending on climate, culture, infrastructure (housing), and other factors. Public health measures include health promotion and heat wave warning systems, but the effectiveness of acute measures in response to heat waves has not yet been formally evaluated. Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of heat waves, and a range of measures, including improvements to housing, management of chronic diseases, and institutional care of the elderly and the vulnerable, will need to be developed to reduce health impacts.

Temporal changes in morality attributed to heat extremes for 57 cities in Northeast Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Whanhee; Choi, Hayon Michelle; Kim, Dahye; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

2018-03-01

Recent studies have reported that heat-related mortality decreased by adaptation during decades. However, since the frequency of extreme heat events is increasing, it is difficult to conclude with certainty that the heat mortality burden is decreasing. To examine temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes in Northeast Asia, we collected temperature and mortality data covering the years 1972-2012 from 57 cities of 3 countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan) in Northeast Asia. Poisson regression curves were fitted to the data from each city. The temporal changes in heat-mortality association were estimated with a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. Heat extremes were defined as temperatures greater than the 97.5th percentiles of city-specific average temperatures. Attributable deaths were calculated considering temporal variations in exposure and relative risk. The estimates were then pooled through meta-analysis. The results show that the mortality risk on extreme heat days declined during the study period in all countries. However, as summer temperatures in Japan have shown more heat extremes over time, the mortality risk attributed to heat increased during 2003-2012 (0.32%) compared with 1972-1981 (0.19%). Thus, to assess the total health burden due to heat extremes related to climate change, public health strategies should focus on the temporal variation in heat-mortality association as well as changes in the distribution of heat extremes overtime. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic status in relation to Parkinson's disease risk and mortality: A population-based prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Fei; Johansson, Anna L V; Pedersen, Nancy L; Fang, Fang; Gatz, Margaret; Wirdefeldt, Karin

2016-07-01

Little is known about the role of socioeconomic status in relation to Parkinson's disease (PD) risk, and no study has investigated whether the impact of socioeconomic status on all-cause mortality differs between individuals with and without PD.In this population-based prospective study, over 4.6 million Swedish inhabitants who participated in the Swedish census in 1980 were followed from 1981 to 2010. The incidence rate of PD and incidence rate ratio were estimated for the association between socioeconomic status and PD risk. Age-standardized mortality rate and hazard ratio (HR) were estimated for the association between socioeconomic status and all-cause mortality for individuals with and without PD.During follow-up, 66,332 incident PD cases at a mean age of 76.0 years were recorded. Compared to individuals with the highest socioeconomic status (high nonmanual workers), all other socioeconomic groups (manual or nonmanual and self-employed workers) had a lower PD risk. All-cause mortality rates were higher in individuals with lower socioeconomic status compared with high nonmanual workers, but relative risks for all-cause mortality were lower in PD patients than in non-PD individuals (e.g., for low manual workers, HR: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.15 for PD patients; HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.35-1.36 for non-PD individuals).Individuals with lower socioeconomic status had a lower PD incidence compared to the highest socioeconomic group. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher all-cause mortality among individuals with and without PD, but such impact was weaker among PD patients.

Impact of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Incidence and Mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harboe, Zitta Barrella; Dalby, Tine; Weinberger, Daniel M

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The impact of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) at the population level is unclear. We explored PCV13's effect in reducing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD)-related morbidity and mortality, and whether serotype-specific changes were attributable to vaccination or ...

Pilot Study on Potential Impacts of Fisheries-Induced Changes in Zooplankton Mortality on Marine Biogeochemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Getzlaff, Julia; Oschlies, Andreas

2017-11-01

In this pilot study we link the yield of industrial fisheries to changes in the zooplankton mortality in an idealized way accounting for different target species (planktivorous fish—decreased zooplankton mortality; large predators—increased zooplankton mortality). This indirect approach is used in a global coupled biogeochemistry circulation model to estimate the range of the potential impact of industrial fisheries on marine biogeochemistry. The simulated globally integrated response on phytoplankton and primary production is in line with expectations—a high (low) zooplankton mortality results in a decrease (increase) of zooplankton and an increase (decrease) of phytoplankton. In contrast, the local response of zooplankton and phytoplankton depends on the region under consideration: In nutrient-limited regions, an increase (decrease) in zooplankton mortality leads to a decrease (increase) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. In contrast, in nutrient-replete regions, such as upwelling regions, we find an opposing response: an increase (decrease) of the zooplankton mortality leads to an increase (decrease) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. The results are further evaluated by relating the potential fisheries-induced changes in zooplankton mortality to those driven by CO2 emissions in a business-as-usual 21st century emission scenario. In our idealized case, the potential fisheries-induced impact can be of similar size as warming-induced changes in marine biogeochemistry.

Mortality and community changes drive sudden oak death impacts on litterfall and soil nitrogen cycling.

Science.gov (United States)

Cobb, Richard C; Eviner, Valerie T; Rizzo, David M

2013-10-01

Few studies have quantified pathogen impacts to ecosystem processes, despite the fact that pathogens cause or contribute to regional-scale tree mortality. We measured litterfall mass, litterfall chemistry, and soil nitrogen (N) cycling associated with multiple hosts along a gradient of mortality caused by Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death. In redwood forests, the epidemiological and ecological characteristics of the major overstory species determine disease patterns and the magnitude and nature of ecosystem change. Bay laurel (Umbellularia californica) has high litterfall N (0.992%), greater soil extractable NO3 -N, and transmits infection without suffering mortality. Tanoak (Notholithocarpus densiflorus) has moderate litterfall N (0.723%) and transmits infection while suffering extensive mortality that leads to higher extractable soil NO3 -N. Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) has relatively low litterfall N (0.519%), does not suffer mortality or transmit the pathogen, but dominates forest biomass. The strongest impact of pathogen-caused mortality was the potential shift in species composition, which will alter litterfall chemistry, patterns and dynamics of litterfall mass, and increase soil NO3 -N availability. Patterns of P. ramorum spread and consequent mortality are closely associated with bay laurel abundances, suggesting this species will drive both disease emergence and subsequent ecosystem function. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Projected health impacts of heat events in Washington State associated with climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael; Hom, Elizabeth; Fenske, Richard

2014-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and duration of extreme-heat events and associated health outcomes. This study used data from the historical heat-health outcome relationship, and a unique prediction model, to estimate mortality for 2025 and 2045. For each one degree change in humidex above threshold, we find a corresponding 1.83% increase in mortality for all ages, all non-traumatic causes of death in King County, Washington. Mortality is projected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2045 for the 85 and older age group (2.3-8.0 and 4.0-22.3 times higher than baseline, respectively).

Effect of Vapor Heat Treatment on the Mortality of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae and the Quality of Mango cv. Arumanis

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Tri Wulan Widya Lestari

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Arumanis is a superior export variety mango from Indonesia. One inhibiting factor on the production of this fruit variety is the infestation of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae fruit fly. Vapor heat treatment was recommended by ISPM No. 28 of 2007 as an effective treatment in eradicating fruit flies. This research was aimed to find out the optimum temperature and the duration of vapor heat treatment on the mortality of egg and larvae of B. dorsalis. The experiment was conducted in the Laboratory of Vapor Heat Treatment, BBPOPT, Jatisari, from October 2016 to January 2017. The observed parameters were temperature, duration of treatment, mortality of egg and larvae of fruit fly, and fruit quality. The results showed that vapor heat treatment at 47°C for 40 minutes (min was effective to reduce the number of eggs and larvae of B. dorsalis and had no negative impact on the fruit quality.   Intisari Buah mangga varietas Arumanis merupakan varietas mangga ekspor unggulan Indonesia. Salah satu faktor pembatas produksi buah mangga varietas Arumanis adalah lalat buah B. dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae. Perlakuan uap panas direkomendasikan oleh ISPM Nomor 28 tahun 2007 sebagai tindakan perlakuan yang efektif dalam mengeradikasi lalat buah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui suhu dan waktu optimum perlakuan uap panas terhadap mortalitas telur dan larva B. dorsalis pada buah mangga varietas Arumanis tanpa merusak kualitas buah. Penelitian dilaksanakan di Laboratorium Vapor Heat Treatment, BBPOPT, Jatisari, pada Oktober 2016 sampai dengan Januari 2017. Parameter yang diamati adalah suhu, lamanya waktu perlakuan, mortalitas telur dan larva lalat buah, dan kualitas buah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perlakuan uap panas pada suhu 47°C selama 40 menit terbukti efektif membunuh telur dan larva B. dorsalis dan tidak berdampak negatif terhadap kualitas buah.

Recent diabetes-related mortality trends in Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Ioacara, Sorin; Sava, Elisabeta; Georgescu, Olivia; Sirbu, Anca; Fica, Simona

2018-05-17

As there are no published articles on country-level diabetes-related mortality in Romania, we aimed to investigate this aspect for the 1998-2015 period. Anonymized demographic and diabetes-related mortality data (underlying or first secondary cause of death) were retrospectively obtained from the National Institute of Statistics/Eurostat microdata. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and their annual percentage change (APC) were analysed. During 1998-2015, 4,567,899 persons died in Romania, among whom, diabetes was responsible for 168,854 cases. The ASMR for diabetes was 39.34 per 100,000 person-years (p-y) (95% CI 39.32-39.35). There was an increase in ASMR from 27.10 per 100,000 p-y (95% CI 27.01-27.19) in women and 30.88 per 100,000 p-y (95% CI 30.77-30.99) in men in 1998 to 35.42 per 100,000 p-y (95% CI 35.34-35.51) in women and 48.41 per 100,000 p-y (95% CI 48.29-48.52) in men, in 2015. The mean APC in women was 3.8% per year (95% CI 3.5-4.0, p < 0.001) during 1998-2010 and - 1.9% per year (95% CI - 2.7 to - 1.1, p < 0.001) during 2010-2015. The mean APC in men was 5.3% per year (95% CI 5.0-5.5, p < 0.001) during 1998-2010 and - 1.5% per year (95% CI - 2.2 to - 0.8, p < 0.001) during 2010-2015. Diabetes-related mortality rates increased with age, with men experiencing higher mortality rates than women for most age groups and calendar years. Diabetes-related mortality rates increased significantly in Romania during 1998-2010, followed by a steady decline during 2010-2015.

Statin use and reduced cancer-related mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Sune F; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Bojesen, Stig E

2012-01-01

A reduction in the availability of cholesterol may limit the cellular proliferation required for cancer growth and metastasis. We tested the hypothesis that statin use begun before a cancer diagnosis is associated with reduced cancer-related mortality.......A reduction in the availability of cholesterol may limit the cellular proliferation required for cancer growth and metastasis. We tested the hypothesis that statin use begun before a cancer diagnosis is associated with reduced cancer-related mortality....

Global Reduction in HIV-related Maternal Mortality: ART as a Key Strategy

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Hamisu M. Salihu, MD, PhD

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Dr. Holtz and colleagues present a synthesis of evidence from published studies over the previous decade on the collective impact of HIV-targeted interventions on maternal mortality. Amongst an assortment of interventions [that include antiretroviral therapy (ART, micronutrients (multivitamins, vitamin A and selenium, and antibiotics], only ART reduced maternal mortality among HIV-infected pregnant and post-partum mothers. These findings have fundamental and global strategic implications. They are also timely since they provide the evidence that ART reduces HIV-related maternal mortality, and by further enhancing access to ART in HIV-challenged and poor regions of the world, significant improvement in maternal morbidity and mortality indices could be attained. The paper bears good tidings and sound scientific proof that the financial investment made globally by government and non-governmental organizations and agencies to reduce the global burden of HIV/AIDS primarily by making ART more accessible to regions of the world most affected by the epidemic is beginning to show beneficial effects not only in terms of numerical reductions in the rates of new cases of HIV/AIDS among women, but also in maternal mortality levels.

Differential declines in syphilis-related mortality in the United States, 2000-2014.

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Barragan, Noel C; Moschetti, Kristin; Smith, Lisa V; Sorvillo, Frank; Kuo, Tony

2017-04-01

After reaching an all time low in 2000, the rate of syphilis in the United States has been steadily increasing. Parallel benchmarking of the disease's mortality burden has not been undertaken. Using ICD-10 classification, all syphilis-related deaths in the national Multiple Cause of Death dataset were examined for the period 2000-2014. Descriptive statistics and age-adjusted mortality rates were generated. Poisson regression was performed to analyze trends over time. A matched case-control analysis was conducted to assess the associations between syphilis-related deaths and comorbid conditions listed in the death records. A total of 1,829 deaths were attributed to syphilis; 32% (n = 593) identified syphilis as the underlying cause of death. Most decedents were men (60%) and either black (48%) or white (39%). Decedents aged ≥85 years had the highest average mortality rate (0.47 per 100,000 population; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.52). For the sampled period, the average annual decline in mortality was -2.90% (95% CI, -3.93% to -1.87%). However, the average annual percent change varied across subgroups of interest. Declines in U.S. syphilis mortality suggest early detection and improved treatment access likely helped attenuate disease progression; however, increases in the disease rate since 2000 may be offsetting the impact of these advancements. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Microwave Heating on the Mortality of Ephestia kuehniella Zeller. and Oryzaephilus surinamensis L. and Determination of Energy Consumed for Raisin Product

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Rahil Mirabimoghaddam

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The suitable weather conditions of Iran makes it as one of the most talented country in producing of the various agricultural products such as grapes and raisins and has a great history in this field. Raisin is a commercial dried fruit, produced by drying of ripe seedless grapes by the moisture content of 16%. A major problem in the production, storage and marketing of stored products is infestation by insect pests. A number of insect species pose a potential threat to a variety of stored products. The Oryzaephilus surinamensis L. and Ephestia kuehniella Zeller. Have a widespread distribution in the most part of the world. These species are recognized as the cosmopolitan pests attacking stored-products and cause serious losses both in quantity through feeding damage and quality by contaminating the product with its cast skin and frass. Considering economic importance of pests and problems arising from the use of chemical insecticides and fumigants, it is necessary to replace them with the other appropriate methods. The traditional methods of pest control, while having many advantages such as ease of operation and low cost, have some disadvantages such as slow operations, creation of environmental pollution residues, negative impact on product quality and health hazards on the operator. The use of alternative methods seems to be necessary because of concerns about the health hazards of chemical pesticides and its environment pollution. The researches has been conducted on the ionizing radiation, controlled atmosphere, cold treatment, conventional hot air or water heating and novel radio frequency and microwave dielectric heating for controlling the insects. The microwave heating is based on the transformation of alternating electromagnetic field energy into thermal energy by affecting the polar molecules of a material. The most important characteristic of the microwave heating method is volumetric heating. Dielectric heating which

Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mons, Ute; Müezzinler, Aysel; Gellert, Carolin

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological...... 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37 952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1......, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies...

The effect of atmospheric thermal conditions and urban thermal pollution on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burkart, Katrin; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Khan, Mobarak Hossain; Kraemer, Alexander; Endlicher, Wilfried

2011-01-01

This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh. In particular, differences in the response to elevated temperatures between urban and rural areas were investigated. Generalized additive models (GAMs) for daily death counts, adjusted for trend, season, day of the month and age were separately fitted for urban and rural areas. Breakpoint models were applied for determining the increase in mortality above and below a threshold (equivalent) temperature. Generally, a 'V'-shaped (equivalent) temperature-mortality curve with increasing mortality at low and high temperatures was observed. Particularly, urban areas suffered from heat-related mortality with a steep increase above a specific threshold. This adverse heat effect may well increase with ongoing urbanization and the intensification of the urban heat island due to the densification of building structures. Moreover, rising temperatures due to climate change could aggravate thermal stress. - Highlights: → Temperature exhibits a strong influence on mortality in Bangladesh. → Mortality increases at low and high end of the temperature range. → Temperature is increased in the urban area of Dhaka, particular during summer. → Urban areas are facing increased risk of heat-related mortality. → Urbanization and climate change are likely to increase heat-related mortality. - Mortality in Bangladesh is strongly affected by thermal atmospheric conditions with particularly urban areas facing excess mortality above a specific threshold temperature.

Out of control mortality matters: the effect of perceived uncontrollable mortality risk on a health-related decision

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Gillian V. Pepper

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Prior evidence from the public health literature suggests that both control beliefs and perceived threats to life are important for health behaviour. Our previously presented theoretical model generated the more specific hypothesis that uncontrollable, but not controllable, personal mortality risk should alter the payoff from investment in health protection behaviours. We carried out three experiments to test whether altering the perceived controllability of mortality risk would affect a health-related decision. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a mortality prime could be used to alter a health-related decision: the choice between a healthier food reward (fruit and an unhealthy alternative (chocolate. Experiment 2 demonstrated that it is the controllability of the mortality risk being primed that generates the effect, rather than mortality risk per se. Experiment 3 showed that the effect could be seen in a surreptitious experiment that was not explicitly health related. Our results suggest that perceptions about the controllability of mortality risk may be an important factor in people’s health-related decisions. Thus, techniques for adjusting perceptions about mortality risk could be important tools for use in health interventions. More importantly, tackling those sources of mortality that people perceive to be uncontrollable could have a dual purpose: making neighbourhoods and workplaces safer would have the primary benefit of reducing uncontrollable mortality risk, which could lead to a secondary benefit from improved health behaviours.

Out of control mortality matters: the effect of perceived uncontrollable mortality risk on a health-related decision.

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Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-01-01

Prior evidence from the public health literature suggests that both control beliefs and perceived threats to life are important for health behaviour. Our previously presented theoretical model generated the more specific hypothesis that uncontrollable, but not controllable, personal mortality risk should alter the payoff from investment in health protection behaviours. We carried out three experiments to test whether altering the perceived controllability of mortality risk would affect a health-related decision. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a mortality prime could be used to alter a health-related decision: the choice between a healthier food reward (fruit) and an unhealthy alternative (chocolate). Experiment 2 demonstrated that it is the controllability of the mortality risk being primed that generates the effect, rather than mortality risk per se. Experiment 3 showed that the effect could be seen in a surreptitious experiment that was not explicitly health related. Our results suggest that perceptions about the controllability of mortality risk may be an important factor in people's health-related decisions. Thus, techniques for adjusting perceptions about mortality risk could be important tools for use in health interventions. More importantly, tackling those sources of mortality that people perceive to be uncontrollable could have a dual purpose: making neighbourhoods and workplaces safer would have the primary benefit of reducing uncontrollable mortality risk, which could lead to a secondary benefit from improved health behaviours.

Work-related heat stress concerns in automotive industries: a case study from Chennai, India.

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Ayyappan, Ramalingam; Sankar, Sambandam; Rajkumar, Paramasivan; Balakrishnan, Kalpana

2009-11-11

Work-related heat stress assessments, the quantification of thermal loads and their physiological consequences have mostly been performed in non-tropical developed country settings. In many developing countries (many of which are also tropical), limited attempts have been made to create detailed job-exposure profiles for various sectors. We present here a case study from Chennai in southern India that illustrates the prevalence of work-related heat stress in multiple processes of automotive industries and the efficacy of relatively simple controls in reducing prevalence of the risk through longitudinal assessments. We conducted workplace heat stress assessments in automotive and automotive parts manufacturing units according to the protocols recommended by NIOSH, USA. Sites for measurements included indoor locations with process-generated heat exposure, indoor locations without direct process-generated heat exposure and outdoor locations. Nearly 400 measurements of heat stress were made over a four-year period at more than 100 locations within eight units involved with automotive or automotive parts manufacturing in greater Chennai metropolitan area. In addition, cross-sectional measurements were made in select processes of glass manufacturing and textiles to estimate relative prevalence of heat stress. Results indicate that many processes even in organised large-scale industries have yet to control heat stress-related hazards adequately. Upwards of 28% of workers employed in multiple processes were at risk of heat stress-related health impairment in the sectors assessed. Implications of longitudinal baseline data for assessing efficacy of interventions as well as modelling potential future impacts from climate change (through contributions from worker health and productivity impairments consequent to increases in ambient temperature) are described. The study re-emphasises the need for recognising heat stress as an important occupational health risk in both formal

Green Space and Deaths Attributable to the Urban Heat Island Effect in Ho Chi Minh City.

Science.gov (United States)

Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Doan Quang; Kusaka, Hiroyuki; Seposo, Xerxes T; Honda, Yasushi

2018-04-01

To quantify heat-related deaths in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, caused by the urban heat island (UHI) and explore factors that may alleviate the impact of UHIs. We estimated district-specific meteorological conditions from 2010 to 2013 using the dynamic downscaling model and calculated the attributable fraction and number of mortalities resulting from the total, extreme, and mild heat in each district. The difference in attributable fraction of total heat between the central and outer districts was classified as the attributable fraction resulting from the UHI. The association among attributable fraction, attributable number with a green space, population density, and budget revenue of each district was then explored. The temperature-mortality relationship between the central and outer areas was almost identical. The attributable fraction resulting from the UHI was 0.42%, which was contributed by the difference in temperature distribution between the 2 areas. Every 1-square-kilometer increase in green space per 1000 people can prevent 7.4 deaths caused by heat. Green space can alleviate the impacts of UHIs, although future studies conducting a heath economic evaluation of tree planting are warranted.

The role of air pollution in the relationship between a heat stress index and human mortality in Toronto

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rainham, D.G.C.; Smoyer-Tomic, Karen E.

2003-01-01

In this study we considered confounding from air pollutants and chronological variables in the relation between humidex, a summer temperature and humidity index, and nonaccidental mortality, from 1980-1996 in Toronto, Canada. Changes in the risk of death by age group, gender, and combined cardiac-respiratory cause of death were estimated for both 1 deg. C and 50-95th percentile increases in humidex using a generalized additive linear model. With air pollution terms in the models, relative risk (RR) point estimates narrowly exceeded 1.0 for all groups. Humidex effects were most apparent for females (RR=1.006, 95% CI=1.004-1.008 per 1 deg. C humidex and RR=1.089, 95% CI=1.058-1.121 for 50th to 95th percentile humidex). When air pollution was omitted from the model, RR in the 50-95th percentile analysis increased less than 1.71% for all groups except females, for which RR decreased 1.42%. Differences in RR per 1 deg. C humidex were all less than 0.12%. Confidence intervals narrowed slightly for all groups investigated. Heat stress has a statistically significant, yet minimal impact on Toronto populations, and air pollution does appear to have a small, but consistent confounding effect on humidex effect estimates

Public crowdsensing of heat waves by social media data

Science.gov (United States)

Grasso, Valentina; Crisci, Alfonso; Morabito, Marco; Nesi, Paolo; Pantaleo, Gianni

2017-07-01

Investigating on society-related heat wave hazards is a global issue concerning the people health. In the last two decades, Europe experienced several severe heat wave episodes with catastrophic effects in term of human mortality (2003, 2010 and 2015). Recent climate investigations confirm that this threat will represent a key issue for the resiliency of urban communities in next decades. Several important mitigation actions (Heat-Health Action Plans) against heat hazards have been already implemented in some WHO (World Health Organization) European region member states to encourage preparedness and response to extreme heat events. Nowadays, social media (SM) offer new opportunities to indirectly measure the impact of heat waves on society. Using the crowdsensing concept, a micro-blogging platform like Twitter may be used as a distributed network of mobile sensors that react to external events by exchanging messages (tweets). This work presents a preliminary analysis of tweets related to heat waves that occurred in Italy in summer 2015. Using TwitterVigilance dashboard, developed by the University of Florence, a sample of tweets related to heat conditions was retrieved, stored and analyzed for main features. Significant associations between the daily increase in tweets and extreme temperatures were presented. The daily volume of Twitter users and messages revealed to be a valuable indicator of heat wave impact at the local level, in urban areas. Furthermore, with the help of Generalized Additive Model (GAM), the volume of tweets in certain locations has been used to estimate thresholds of local discomfort conditions. These city-specific thresholds are the result of dissimilar climatic conditions and risk cultures.

An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase

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Andrew Fenelon

2013-09-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND The rate of mortality increase with age among adults is typically used as a measure of the rate of functional decline associated with aging or senescence. While black and white populations differ in the level of mortality, mortality also rises less rapidly with age for blacks than for whites, leading to the well-known black/white mortality "crossover". OBJECTIVE This paper investigates black/white differences in the rate of mortality increase with age for major causes of death in order to examine the factors responsible for the black/white crossover. METHODS The analysis considers two explanations for the crossover: selective survival and age misreporting. Mortality is modeled using a Gompertz model for 11 causes of death from ages 50-84 among blacks and whites by sex. RESULTS Mortality increases more rapidly with age for whites than for blacks for nearly all causes of death considered. The all-cause mortality rate of mortality increase is nearly two percentage points higher for whites. The analysis finds evidence for both selective survival and age misreporting, although age misreporting is a more prominent explanation among women. CONCLUSIONS The black/white mortality crossover reflects large differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase. Instead of reflecting the impact of specific causes of death, this pattern exists across many disparate disease conditions, indicating the need for a broad explanation.

Assessment of the Long Term Trends in Extreme Heat Events and the Associated Health Impacts in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, J.; Rennie, J.; Kunkel, K.; Herring, S.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

Land surface air temperature products have been essential for monitoring the evolution of the climate system. Before a temperature dataset is included in such reports, it is important that non-climatic influences be removed or changed so the dataset is considered homogenous. These inhomogeneities include changes in station location, instrumentation and observing practices. While many homogenized products exist on the monthly time scale, few daily products exist, due to the complication of removing breakpoints that are truly inhomogeneous rather than solely by chance (for example, sharp changes due to synoptic conditions). Recently, a sub monthly homogenized dataset has been developed using data and software provided by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Homogeneous daily data are useful for identification and attribution of extreme heat events over a period of time. Projections of increasing temperatures are expected to result in corresponding increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events. It is also established that extreme heat events can have significant public health impacts, including short-term increases in mortality and morbidity. In addition, it can exacerbate chronic health conditions in vulnerable populations, including renal and cardiovascular issues. To understand how heat events impact a specific population, it will be important to connect observations on the duration and intensity of extreme heat events with health impacts data including insurance claims and hospital admissions data. This presentation will explain the methodology to identify extreme heat events, provide a climatology of heat event onset, length and severity, and explore a case study of an anomalous heat event with available health data.

Impact of pre-admission depression on mortality following myocardial infarction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbøll, Jens; Schmidt, Morten; Adelborg, Kasper

2017-01-01

BackgroundThe prognostic impact of previous depression on myocardial infarction survival remains poorly understood.AimsTo examine the association between depression and all-cause mortality following myocardial infarction.MethodUsing Danish medical registries, we conducted a nationwide population-...... in the depression definition.ConclusionsA history of depression was associated with a moderately increased all-cause mortality following myocardial infarction....

Projecting productivity losses for cancer-related mortality 2011 - 2030.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearce, Alison; Bradley, Cathy; Hanly, Paul; O'Neill, Ciaran; Thomas, Audrey Alforque; Molcho, Michal; Sharp, Linda

2016-10-18

When individuals stop working due to cancer this represents a loss to society - the loss of productivity. The aim of this analysis was to estimate productivity losses associated with premature mortality from all adult cancers and from the 20 highest mortality adult cancers in Ireland in 2011, and project these losses until 2030. An incidence-based method was used to estimate the cost of cancer deaths between 2011 and 2030 using the Human Capital Approach. National data were used for cancer, population and economic inputs. Both paid work and unpaid household activities were included. Sensitivity analyses estimated the impact of assumptions around future cancer mortality rates, retirement ages, value of unpaid work, wage growth and discounting. The 233,000 projected deaths from all invasive cancers in Ireland between 2011 and 2030 will result in lost productivity valued at €73 billion; €13 billion in paid work and €60 billion in household activities. These losses represent approximately 1.4 % of Ireland's GDP annually. The most costly cancers are lung (€14.4 billion), colorectal and breast cancer (€8.3 billion each). However, when viewed as productivity losses per cancer death, testis (€364,000 per death), cervix (€155,000 per death) and brain cancer (€136,000 per death) are most costly because they affect working age individuals. An annual 1 % reduction in mortality reduces productivity losses due to all invasive cancers by €8.5 billion over 20 years. Society incurs substantial losses in productivity as a result of cancer-related mortality, particularly when household production is included. These estimates provide valuable evidence to inform resource allocation decisions in cancer prevention and control.

Classification of treatment-related mortality in children with cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alexander, Sarah; Pole, Jason D; Gibson, Paul

2015-01-01

Treatment-related mortality is an important outcome in paediatric cancer clinical trials. An international group of experts in supportive care in paediatric cancer developed a consensus-based definition of treatment-related mortality and a cause-of-death attribution system. The reliability and va...

Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower income settings. METHODS: We analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile including detailed age-specific mortality data from a large city...... with high baseline mortality (R2=41.8%; P=0.02), but not with latitude (P>0.7). Excess mortality rates increased sharply with age. Transmissibility declined from R=1.4-2.1 to R=1.2-1.4 between the two pandemic waves. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated A/H2N2 mortality burden in Chile is the highest on record...... for this pandemic - about 3-5 times as severe as that experienced in wealthier nations. The global impact of this pandemic may be substantially underestimated from previous studies based on high-income countries....

Interventions to reduce neonatal mortality: a mathematical model to evaluate impact of interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, Jennifer B; McClure, Elizabeth M; Kamath-Rayne, Beena D; Hepler, Bonnie M; Rouse, Doris J; Jobe, Alan H; Goldenberg, Robert L

2017-08-01

To determine which interventions would have the greatest impact on reducing neonatal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2012. We used MANDATE, a mathematical model, to evaluate scenarios for the impact of available interventions on neonatal deaths from primary causes, including: (i) for birth asphyxia - obstetric care preventing intrapartum asphyxia, newborn resuscitation and treatment of asphyxiated infants; (ii) for preterm birth - corticosteroids, oxygen, continuous positive air pressure and surfactant; and, (iii) for serious newborn infection - clean delivery, chlorhexidine cord care and antibiotics. Reductions in infection-related mortality have occurred. Between 80 and 90% of deaths currently occurring from infections and asphyxia can be averted from available interventions, as can 58% of mortality from preterm birth. More than 200 000 neonatal deaths can each be averted from asphyxia, preterm birth and infections. Using available interventions, more than 80% of the neonatal deaths occurring today could be prevented in sub-Saharan Africa. Reducing neonatal deaths from asphyxia require improvements in infrastructure and obstetric care to manage maternal conditions such as obstructed labour and preeclampsia. Reducing deaths from preterm birth would also necessitate improved infrastructure and training for preterm infant care. Reducing infection-related mortality requires less infrastructure and lower-level providers. ©2017 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost and mortality impact of an algorithm-driven sepsis prediction system.

Science.gov (United States)

Calvert, Jacob; Hoffman, Jana; Barton, Christopher; Shimabukuro, David; Ries, Michael; Chettipally, Uli; Kerem, Yaniv; Jay, Melissa; Mataraso, Samson; Das, Ritankar

2017-06-01

To compute the financial and mortality impact of InSight, an algorithm-driven biomarker, which forecasts the onset of sepsis with minimal use of electronic health record data. This study compares InSight with existing sepsis screening tools and computes the differential life and cost savings associated with its use in the inpatient setting. To do so, mortality reduction is obtained from an increase in the number of sepsis cases correctly identified by InSight. Early sepsis detection by InSight is also associated with a reduction in length-of-stay, from which cost savings are directly computed. InSight identifies more true positive cases of severe sepsis, with fewer false alarms, than comparable methods. For an individual ICU with 50 beds, for example, it is determined that InSight annually saves 75 additional lives and reduces sepsis-related costs by $560,000. InSight performance results are derived from analysis of a single-center cohort. Mortality reduction results rely on a simplified use case, which fixes prediction times at 0, 1, and 2 h before sepsis onset, likely leading to under-estimates of lives saved. The corresponding cost reduction numbers are based on national averages for daily patient length-of-stay cost. InSight has the potential to reduce sepsis-related deaths and to lead to substantial cost savings for healthcare facilities.

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

2015-02-01

Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of the Urban Heat Island during an Intense Heat Wave in Oklahoma City

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Jeffrey B. Basara

2010-01-01

Full Text Available During late July and early August 2008, an intense heat wave occurred in Oklahoma City. To quantify the impact of the urban heat island (UHI in Oklahoma City on observed and apparent temperature conditions during the heat wave event, this study used observations from 46 locations in and around Oklahoma City. The methodology utilized composite values of atmospheric conditions for three primary categories defined by population and general land use: rural, suburban, and urban. The results of the analyses demonstrated that a consistent UHI existed during the study period whereby the composite temperature values within the urban core were approximately 0.5∘C warmer during the day than the rural areas and over 2∘C warmer at night. Further, when the warmer temperatures were combined with ambient humidity conditions, the composite values consistently revealed even warmer heat-related variables within the urban environment as compared with the rural zone.

Public crowdsensing of heat waves by social media data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Grasso

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Investigating on society-related heat wave hazards is a global issue concerning the people health. In the last two decades, Europe experienced several severe heat wave episodes with catastrophic effects in term of human mortality (2003, 2010 and 2015. Recent climate investigations confirm that this threat will represent a key issue for the resiliency of urban communities in next decades. Several important mitigation actions (Heat-Health Action Plans against heat hazards have been already implemented in some WHO (World Health Organization European region member states to encourage preparedness and response to extreme heat events. Nowadays, social media (SM offer new opportunities to indirectly measure the impact of heat waves on society. Using the crowdsensing concept, a micro-blogging platform like Twitter may be used as a distributed network of mobile sensors that react to external events by exchanging messages (tweets. This work presents a preliminary analysis of tweets related to heat waves that occurred in Italy in summer 2015. Using TwitterVigilance dashboard, developed by the University of Florence, a sample of tweets related to heat conditions was retrieved, stored and analyzed for main features. Significant associations between the daily increase in tweets and extreme temperatures were presented. The daily volume of Twitter users and messages revealed to be a valuable indicator of heat wave impact at the local level, in urban areas. Furthermore, with the help of Generalized Additive Model (GAM, the volume of tweets in certain locations has been used to estimate thresholds of local discomfort conditions. These city-specific thresholds are the result of dissimilar climatic conditions and risk cultures.

Aviation-attributable ozone as a driver for changes in mortality related to air quality and skin cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Eastham, Sebastian D.; Barrett, Steven R. H.

2016-11-01

Aviation is a significant source of tropospheric ozone, which is a critical UV blocking agent, an indirect precursor to the formation of particulate matter, and a respiratory health hazard. To date, investigations of human health impacts related to aviation emissions have focused on particulate matter, and no global estimate yet exists of the combined health impact of aviation due to ozone, particulate matter and UV exposure changes. We use a coupled tropospheric-stratospheric chemical-transport model with a global aviation emissions inventory to estimate the total impact of aviation on all three risk factors. We find that surface ozone due to aviation emissions is maximized during hemispheric winter due to the greater wintertime chemical lifetime of ozone, but that a smaller enhancement of 0.5 ppbv occurs during summertime. This summertime increase results in an estimated 6,800 premature mortalities per year due to ozone exposure, over three times greater than previous estimates. During the winter maximum, interaction with high background NOx concentrations results in enhanced production of nitrate aerosol and increased annual average exposure to particulate matter. This ozone perturbation is shown to be the driving mechanism behind an additional 9,200 premature mortalities due to exposure to particulate matter. However, the increase in tropospheric ozone is also found to result in 400 fewer mortalities due to melanoma skin cancer in 2006. This is the first estimate of global melanoma mortality due to aviation, and the first estimate of skin cancer mortality impacts due to aviation using a global chemical transport model.

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Anderegg, William R.L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Allen, Craig D.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Bentz, Barbara; Hood, Sharon; Lichstein, Jeremy W.; Macalady, Alison K.; McDowell, Nate G.; Pan, Yude; Raffa, Kenneth; Sala, Anna; Shaw, John D.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Tague, Christina L.; Zeppel, Melanie

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects – bark beetles and defoliators – which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree–insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

Analysis of radiative heat transfer impact in cross-flow tube and fin heat exchangers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanuszkiewicz-Drapała Małgorzata

2016-03-01

Full Text Available A cross-flow, tube and fin heat exchanger of the water – air type is the subject of the analysis. The analysis had experimental and computational form and was aimed for evaluation of radiative heat transfer impact on the heat exchanger performance. The main element of the test facility was an enlarged recurrent segment of the heat exchanger under consideration. The main results of measurements are heat transfer rates, as well as temperature distributions on the surface of the first fin obtained by using the infrared camera. The experimental results have been next compared to computational ones coming from a numerical model of the test station. The model has been elaborated using computational fluid dynamics software. The computations have been accomplished for two cases: without radiative heat transfer and taking this phenomenon into account. Evaluation of the radiative heat transfer impact in considered system has been done by comparing all the received results.

A spatial analysis of heat stress related emergency room visits in rural Southern Ontario during heat waves.

Science.gov (United States)

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Kelton, David F

2015-08-06

In Southern Ontario, climate change may have given rise to an increasing occurrence of heat waves since the year 2000, which can cause heat stress to the general public, and potentially have detrimental health consequences. Heat waves are defined as three consecutive days with temperatures of 32 °C and above. Heat stress is the level of discomfort. A variety of heat stress indices have been proposed to measure heat stress (e.g., the heat stress index (HSI)), and has been shown to predict increases in morbidity and/or mortality rates in humans and other species. Maps visualizing the distribution of heat stress can provide information about related health risks and insight for control strategies. Information to inform heat wave preparedness models in Ontario was previously only available for major metropolitan areas. Hospitals in communities of fewer than 100,000 individuals were recruited for a pilot study by telephone. The number of people visiting the emergency room or 24-hour urgent care service was collected for a total of 27 days, covering three heat waves and six 3-day control periods from 2010-2012. The heat stress index was spatially predicted using data from 37 weather stations across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. Poisson regression modeling was applied to determine the rate of increased number of emergency room visits in rural hospitals with respect to the HSI. During a heat wave, the average rate of emergency room visits was 1.11 times higher than during a control period (IRR = 1.11, CI95% (IRR) = (1.07,1.15), p ≤ 0.001). In a univariable model, HSI was not a significant predictor of emergency room visits, but when accounting for the confounding effect of a spatial trend polynomial in the hospital location coordinates, a one unit increase in HSI predicted an increase in daily emergency rooms visits by 0.4% (IRR = 1.004, CI95%(IRR) = (1.0005,1.007), p = 0.024) across the region. One high-risk cluster and no low risk

The health effects of hotter summers and heat waves in the population of the United Kingdom: a review of the evidence.

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Arbuthnott, Katherine G; Hajat, Shakoor

2017-12-05

It is widely acknowledged that the climate is warming globally and within the UK. In this paper, studies which assess the direct impact of current increased temperatures and heat-waves on health and those which project future health impacts of heat under different climate change scenarios in the UK are reviewed.This review finds that all UK studies demonstrate an increase in heat-related mortality occurring at temperatures above threshold values, with respiratory deaths being more sensitive to heat than deaths from cardiovascular disease (although the burden from cardiovascular deaths is greater in absolute terms). The relationship between heat and other health outcomes such as hospital admissions, myocardial infarctions and birth outcomes is less consistent. We highlight the main populations who are vulnerable to heat. Within the UK, these are older populations, those with certain co-morbidities and those living in Greater London, the South East and Eastern regions.In all assessments of heat-related impacts using different climate change scenarios, deaths are expected to increase due to hotter temperatures, with some studies demonstrating that an increase in the elderly population will also amplify burdens. However, key gaps in knowledge are found in relation to how urbanisation and population adaptation to heat will affect health impacts, and in relation to current and future strategies for effective, sustainable and equitable adaptation to heat. These and other key gaps in knowledge, both in terms of research needs and knowledge required to make sound public- health policy, are discussed.

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

Science.gov (United States)

Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

2004-01-01

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

Impacts of Climate Modes on Air–Sea Heat Exchange in the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Abualnaja, Yasser

2015-04-01

The impacts of various climate modes on the Red Sea surface heat exchange are investigated using the MERRA reanalysis and the OAFlux satellite reanalysis datasets. Seasonality in the atmospheric forcing is also explored. Mode impacts peak during boreal winter [December–February (DJF)] with average anomalies of 12–18 W m−2 to be found in the northern Red Sea. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic–west Russia (EAWR) pattern, and the Indian monsoon index (IMI) exhibit the strongest influence on the air–sea heat exchange during the winter. In this season, the largest negative anomalies of about −30 W m−2 are associated with the EAWR pattern over the central part of the Red Sea. In other seasons, mode-related anomalies are considerably lower, especially during spring when the mode impacts are negligible. The mode impacts are strongest over the northern half of the Red Sea during winter and autumn. In summer, the southern half of the basin is strongly influenced by the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The winter mode–related anomalies are determined mostly by the latent heat flux component, while in summer the shortwave flux is also important. The influence of the modes on the Red Sea is found to be generally weaker than on the neighboring Mediterranean basin.

Towards improved quantification of post-fire conifer mortality and recovery: Impacts of fire radiative flux on seedling and mature tree mortality, physiology, and growth

Science.gov (United States)

Sparks, A. M.; Kolden, C.; Smith, A. M.

2016-12-01

Fire activity, in terms of intensity, frequency, and total area burned, is expected to increase with changing climate. A challenge for landscape level assessment of fire effects, termed burn severity, is that current assessments provide very little information regarding vegetation physiological performance and recovery, limiting our understanding of fire effects on ecosystem services such as carbon storage/cycling. To address these limitations, we evaluated an alternative dose-response methodology for quantifying fire effects that attempts to bridge fire combustion dynamics and ecophysiology. Specifically, we conducted a highly controlled, laboratory assessment of seedling response to increasing doses of fire radiative energy applied through surface fires, for two western U.S. conifer species. Seedling physiology and spectral reflectance were acquired pre- and up to 1 year post-fire. Post-fire mortality, physiological performance, and spectral reflectance were strongly related with fire radiative energy density (FRED: J m-2) dose. To examine how these relationships change with tree size and age, we conducted small prescribed fires at the tree scale (35 m2) in a mature conifer stand. Radial growth and resin duct defenses were assessed on the mature conifer trees following the prescribed fires. Differences in dose-response relationships between seedlings and mature trees indicate the importance of fire behavior (e.g., flaming-dominated versus smoldering-dominated combustion) in characterizing these relationships. Ultimately, these results suggest that post-fire impacts on growth of surviving seedlings and mature trees require modes of heat transfer to impact tree canopies.

Analysis of impacting phenomena in a helically wound heat exchanger

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whiston, G.S.; Jordan, R.W.

1986-01-01

During commissioning tests on a helically wound heat exchanger at Heysham Nuclear Power Station, evidence of impacting was observed on accelerometer responses. Impacting greatly enhances wear and methods have been developed to determine whether the operating lifetime of plant may be limited by tube failures. A theoretical frequency response function based on Timoshenko beam theory has been derived which relates an impact force to the acceleration field which propagates away from the impact site and is detected by remote accelerometers. The accuracy of this function has been verified experimentally and its suitability for the analysis of boiler responses has been demonstrated following investigations into the nature of impacting. Examples of the analysis of impact forces are given and methods of estimating wear are discussed. (author)

Short-term mortality and prognostic factors related to status epilepticus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Gustavo Stelzer

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Objective Status epilepticus (SE is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, and there is some controversy concerning predictive indicators of outcome. Our main goal was to determine mortality and to identify factors associated with SE prognosis. Method This prospective study in a tertiary-care university hospital, included 105 patients with epileptic seizures lasting more than 30 minutes. Mortality was defined as death during hospital admission. Results The case-fatality rate was 36.2%, which was higher than in previous studies. In univariate analysis, mortality was associated with age, previous epilepsy, complex focal seizures; etiology, recurrence, and refractoriness of SE; clinical complications, and focal SE. In multivariate analysis, mortality was associated only with presence of clinical complications. Conclusions Mortality associated with SE was higher than reported in previous studies, and was not related to age, specific etiology, or SE duration. In multivariate analysis, mortality was independently related to occurrence of medical complications.

An Analysis of the Impact of Heat Waves in Labor and Crop Productivity in the Agricultural Sector in California

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Castillo, F.; Wehner, M. F.; Gilless, J. K.

2017-12-01

California agriculture is an important economic activity for the state. California leads the nation in farms sales since 1950. In addition, agricultural employment in California reached approximately 410,000. Production of many fruits and vegetables is labor intensive and labor costs represent anywhere from 20% to 40% of total production costs. In additon, agricutlural production growth has been the highest for labor intensive crops such as berries (all types) and nuts. Given the importance of the agricultural sector and the labor component whithin it, the analysis of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector of California becomes imperative. Heat waves are a weather related extreme that impact labor productivity, specially outdoor labor producitivity. We use crop production function analysis that incorporates socio economic variables such as crop prices, total acreage, production levels and harvest timiline with climate related variables such as an estimated Heat Index (HI) to analize the impact of heat waves on crop production via an impact on labor productivity for selected crops in the Central and Imperial Valleys in California. The analysis finds that the impact of heat waves varies by the degree of labor intensity of the crop and the relative intensity of the heat wave.

Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratios: Sensitivity Analyses on the Impact of Coding

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Bottle, Alex; Jarman, Brian; Aylin, Paul

2011-01-01

Introduction Hospital standardized mortality ratios (HSMRs) are derived from administrative databases and cover 80 percent of in-hospital deaths with adjustment for available case mix variables. They have been criticized for being sensitive to issues such as clinical coding but on the basis of limited quantitative evidence. Methods In a set of sensitivity analyses, we compared regular HSMRs with HSMRs resulting from a variety of changes, such as a patient-based measure, not adjusting for comorbidity, not adjusting for palliative care, excluding unplanned zero-day stays ending in live discharge, and using more or fewer diagnoses. Results Overall, regular and variant HSMRs were highly correlated (ρ > 0.8), but differences of up to 10 points were common. Two hospitals were particularly affected when palliative care was excluded from the risk models. Excluding unplanned stays ending in same-day live discharge had the least impact despite their high frequency. The largest impacts were seen when capturing postdischarge deaths and using just five high-mortality diagnosis groups. Conclusions HSMRs in most hospitals changed by only small amounts from the various adjustment methods tried here, though small-to-medium changes were not uncommon. However, the position relative to funnel plot control limits could move in a significant minority even with modest changes in the HSMR. PMID:21790587

Forecasting Vulnerability to Drought-related Mortality in Western US Forests

Science.gov (United States)

Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hudiburg, T. W.

2017-12-01

Climate-driven tree mortality has been documented across the globe, and continued future mortality is expected. Such mortality could pose threats to ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration. Therefore, forecasting future mortality is critical. Ecosystem process models can be a tool for forecasting forest vulnerability to drought. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to forecast forest vulnerability to drought-related mortality in the western US. We increased the ecological resolution by parameterizing CLM4.5 to recognize 14 different forest types common to the region. We used published physiological traits and tuned CLM4.5 to match present day above ground carbon stocks. We incorporated the influence of drought stress through species- or genus-specific controls on stomatal conductance given soil moisture and increased rates of leaf shed during prolonged periods of low soil moisture. We ran CLM4.5 at a 1/24 degree spatial resolution in offline mode using climate forcing data. We compare forest growth and carbon sequestration metrics (e.g. chronic reduction of GPP below its potential) between historical and future time periods to determine relevant metrics of vulnerability to drought-related mortality. Using the robust metrics, we will forecast and map future forest vulnerability to drought-related mortality given a range of climate scenarios.

Alcohol-related morbidity and mortality within siblings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søndergaard, Grethe; Osler, Merete; Andersen, Anne-Marie Nybo

2015-01-01

AIMS: To estimate the association between educational status and alcohol-related somatic and non-somatic morbidity and mortality among full siblings in comparison with non-related individuals. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: Approximately 1.4 million full siblings born in De...

Heat Islands

Science.gov (United States)

EPA's Heat Island Effect Site provides information on heat islands, their impacts, mitigation strategies, related research, a directory of heat island reduction initiatives in U.S. communities, and EPA's Heat Island Reduction Program.

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at ...

Science.gov (United States)

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observeddata. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results variedby region . Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1 .6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.628.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. In this study we evaluate changes in ozone related mortality due to changes in biogenic f

Clinical impact of antimicrobial resistance in European hospitals: excess mortality and length of hospital stay related to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infections.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

de Kraker, Marlieke E A

2011-04-01

Antimicrobial resistance is threatening the successful management of nosocomial infections worldwide. Despite the therapeutic limitations imposed by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), its clinical impact is still debated. The objective of this study was to estimate the excess mortality and length of hospital stay (LOS) associated with MRSA bloodstream infections (BSI) in European hospitals. Between July 2007 and June 2008, a multicenter, prospective, parallel matched-cohort study was carried out in 13 tertiary care hospitals in as many European countries. Cohort I consisted of patients with MRSA BSI and cohort II of patients with methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) BSI. The patients in both cohorts were matched for LOS prior to the onset of BSI with patients free of the respective BSI. Cohort I consisted of 248 MRSA patients and 453 controls and cohort II of 618 MSSA patients and 1,170 controls. Compared to the controls, MRSA patients had higher 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 4.4) and higher hospital mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 3.5). Their excess LOS was 9.2 days. MSSA patients also had higher 30-day (aOR = 2.4) and hospital (aHR = 3.1) mortality and an excess LOS of 8.6 days. When the outcomes from the two cohorts were compared, an effect attributable to methicillin resistance was found for 30-day mortality (OR = 1.8; P = 0.04), but not for hospital mortality (HR = 1.1; P = 0.63) or LOS (difference = 0.6 days; P = 0.96). Irrespective of methicillin susceptibility, S. aureus BSI has a significant impact on morbidity and mortality. In addition, MRSA BSI leads to a fatal outcome more frequently than MSSA BSI. Infection control efforts in hospitals should aim to contain infections caused by both resistant and susceptible S. aureus.

Assessing the impact of power plant mortality on the compensatory reserve of fish populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodyear, C.P.

1977-01-01

A technique is presented to quantify the concepts of compensation and compensatory reserve in exploited fish populations. The technique was used to examine the impact of power plant mortality on a hypothetical striped bass population. Power plant mortality had a more severe impact on the compensation ratio and compensatory reserve for an exploited stock. The technique can be applied to determine a critical compensation ratio which could serve as a standard against which additional sources of mortality, such as those caused by power plants, could be measured

Relationship between anthropogenic impacts and bleaching-associated tissue mortality of corals in Curaçao (Netherlands Antilles)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nagelkerken, I.

2007-01-01

Chronic anthropogenic impacts can have a negative effect on coral health and on coral energy budgets needed for regeneration of lesions. I therefore hypothesise that during massive bleaching events, the degree of corals showing bleaching-related tissue mortality is higher in areas subject to chronic

Temperature extremes reduce seagrass growth and induce mortality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collier, C.J.; Waycott, M.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Temperature extremes occur during low tide in shallow seagrass meadows. • The effects of temperature extremes were tested experimentally at 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C. • 40 °C was a critical threshold with a large impact on growth and mortality. • At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2–3 days. • Lower light conditions (e.g. poor water quality) led to a greater negative impact. - Abstract: Extreme heating (up to 43 °C measured from five-year temperature records) occurs in shallow coastal seagrass meadows of the Great Barrier Reef at low tide. We measured effective quantum yield (ϕ PSII ), growth, senescence and mortality in four tropical seagrasses to experimental short-duration (2.5 h) spikes in water temperature to 35 °C, 40 °C and 43 °C, for 6 days followed by one day at ambient temperature. Increasing temperature to 35 °C had positive effects on ϕ PSII (the magnitude varied between days and was highly correlated with PPFD), with no effects on growth or mortality. 40 °C represented a critical threshold as there were strong species differences and there was a large impact on growth and mortality. At 43 °C there was complete mortality after 2–3 days. These findings indicate that increasing duration (more days in a row) of thermal events above 40 °C is likely to affect the ecological function of tropical seagrass meadows

Impact of functional determinants on 5.5-year mortality in Amazon riparian elderly

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Tiago C. Antonini

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To ascertain whether modifiable physical performance–based measurements predicted 5.5-year mortality in a riparian elderly cohort in the Amazon rainforest region. Methods A longitudinal study evaluating the impact of functional determinants on 5.5-year mortality in a riparian elderly cohort from Maués City in the state of Amazonas, Brazil, was performed. The study was a follow-up of a previous observational investigation that evaluated various fitness tests in 630 Amazonian riparian elderly (291 males and 339 females aged 72.3 ± 8.0 (60–99 years old. The cohort was selected for its adverse environmental conditions, which increased the risk of falls yet required maintenance of good physical condition for carrying out relatively rigorous daily activities, and restricted access to specialized health services. Official death records were obtained from the Maués Municipal Health Department. Results A total of 80 study participants (12.7% died over the 5.5-year study period. Kaplan-Meier regression analysis showed significant association between Timed Up and Go (TUG test scores ≥ 14 seconds and mortality risk, independent of sex, age, and other health variables. Conclusions The study results suggest that the TUG test can be used as an indicator for initiating therapeutic and preventive actions, including conducting exercises or physical activities adapted to the health and functional conditions of the elderly, by identifying elderly people with a higher relative risk of mortality.

Heat-Related Illnesses

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Full Text Available ... Your Wishes Visiting The ER Who Takes Care Of You In An Emergency? Checking Into ... Illnesses Dr. Glenn Mitchell , Emergency physician at Mercy Health System in Chesterfield, Missouri Heat-related illness can be ...

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CALF MORTALITY ON DAIRY FARMS IN KUWAIT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. A. RAZZAQUE, M. BEDAIR, S. ABBAS AND T. AL-MUTAWA

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Objective of this study was to investigate the economic impact of mortality of pre-weaned calves on dairy cattle enterprise in Kuwait. Cost/benefit analysis model was applied to two different situations: in the first situation, a baseline scenario, field survey data without intervention using 1,280 newborn calves was used in first calving season. In the second situation, the intervention scenario (improved management, 665 newborn calves were used in second calving season during the following year. Calving seasons extended for 7 months from September to March. Calf performance studies were conducted from birth to weaning. Economic model was constructed on Microsoft Excel and used to evaluate the impact of calf mortality on calf enterprise. Results showed that gross margins increased from 13 to 35% as a result of implementation of intervention measures during the second calving season over baseline scenario. A significant correlation between increased veterinary expenses and an increase in revenues (r2 = 0.65, P<0.05 was observed. If the intervention measures such as colostrum feeding, nutrition and hygiene had not been implemented, the farms would have lose income from 12 to 51% of the gross revenues. Net income was influenced by costs of feeds, veterinary services and laborers. Discounted cash flow studies on a whole farm basis revealed that the impact of interventions was small (0-3%. Calf mortality could not be isolated from whole farm for assessing its impact on dairy farm economics. Economic studies demonstrated the cost/benefits of using the improved techniques of calf rearing.

Assessment of impact of borehole heat exchanger design on heat extraction/rejection efficiency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gornov V.F.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers the impact of design of borehole heat exchanger (BHE as one of the main elements of a geothermal heat pump system on its efficiency in the ground heat extraction/rejection. Four BHE modifications are considered: coaxial with metal and polyethylene outside tube as well as single and double U-shaped structures of polyethylene tubes. Numerical modeling resulted to data on the efficiency of these BHE modifications for rejection heat into ground (heat pump system in cooling mode, and ground heat extraction (heat pump system in heating mode. Numerical values were obtained and BHEs were ranked according to their efficiency in both operation modes. Besides, additional calculations were made for the most common modification - double U-shaped design - in the ground heat extraction mode for various tube sizes with various wall thicknesses.

Impacts of cold weather on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Texas, 1990-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Li, Xiao; Zhao, Jing; Zhang, Kai

2017-06-01

Cold weather was estimated to account for more than half of weather-related deaths in the U.S. during 2006-2010. Studies have shown that cold-related excessive mortality is especially relevant with decreasing latitude or in regions with mild winter. However, only limited studies have been conducted in the southern U.S. The purpose of our study is to examine impacts of cold weather on mortality in 12 major Texas Metropolitan Areas (MSAs) for the 22-year period, 1990-2011. Our study used a two-stage approach to examine the cold-mortality association. We first applied distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to 12 major MSAs to estimate cold effects for each area. A random effects meta-analysis was then used to estimate pooled effects. Age-stratified and cause-specific mortalities were modeled separately for each MSA. Most of the MSAs were associated with an increased risk in mortality ranging from 0.1% to 5.0% with a 1 °C decrease in temperature below the cold thresholds. Higher increased mortality risks were generally observed in MSAs with higher average daily mean temperatures and lower latitudes. Pooled effect estimate was 1.58% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) [0.81, 2.37]) increase in all-cause mortality risk with a 1 °C decrease in temperature. Cold wave effects in Texas were also examined, and several MSAs along the Texas Gulf Coast showed statistically significant cold wave-mortality associations. Effects of cold on all-cause mortality were highest among people over 75 years old (1.86%, 95% CI [1.09, 2.63]). Pooled estimates for cause-specific mortality were strongest in myocardial infarction (4.30%, 95% CI [1.18, 7.51]), followed by respiratory diseases (3.17%, 95% CI [0.26, 6.17]) and ischemic heart diseases (2.54%, 95% CI [1.08, 4.02]). In conclusion, cold weather generally increases mortality risk significantly in Texas, and the cold effects vary with MSAs, age groups, and cause-specific deaths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alcohol use disorder-related sick leave and mortality: a cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wedegaertner, Felix; Geyer, Siegfried; Arnhold-Kerri, Sonja; Sittaro, Nicola-Alexander; te Wildt, Bert

2013-01-30

Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are associated with the highest all-cause mortality rates of all mental disorders. The majority of patients with AUDs never receive inpatient treatment for their AUD, and there is lack of data about their mortality risks despite their constituting the majority of those affected. Absenteeism from work (sick leave) due to an AUD likely signals worsening. In this study, we assessed whether AUD-related sick leave was associated with mortality in a cohort of workers in Germany. 128,001 workers with health insurance were followed for a mean of 6.4 years. We examined the associations between 1) AUD-related sick leave managed on an outpatient basis and 2) AUD-related psychiatric inpatient treatment, and mortality using survival analysis, and Cox proportional hazard regression models (separately by sex) adjusted for age, education, and job code classification. We also stratified analyses by sick leave related to three groups of alcohol-related conditions (all determined by International Classification of Diseases 9th ed. (ICD-9) codes): alcohol abuse and dependence; alcohol-induced mental disorder; and alcohol-induced medical conditions. Outpatient-managed AUD-related sick leave was significantly associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 2.90 (95% Confidence interval (CI) 2.24-3.75) for men, HR 5.83 (CI 2.90-11.75) for women). The magnitude of the association was similar for receipt of AUD-related psychiatric inpatient treatment (HR 3.2 (CI 2.76-3.78) for men, HR 6.5 (CI 4.41-9.47) for women). Compared to those without the conditions, higher mortality was observed consistently for outpatients and inpatients across the three groups of alcohol-related conditions. Those with alcohol-related medical conditions who had AUD-related psychiatric inpatient treatment appeared to have the highest mortality. Alcohol use disorder-related sick leave as documented in health insurance records is associated with higher mortality. Such sick leave does

Quantifying cause-related mortality by weighting multiple causes of death

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno-Betancur, Margarita; Lamarche-Vadel, Agathe; Rey, Grégoire

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate a new approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates that involves assigning weights to each cause of death reported on death certificates. Methods We derived cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data for France in 2010 using: (i) the classic method, which considered only the underlying cause of death; and (ii) three novel multiple-cause-of-death weighting methods, which assigned weights to multiple causes of death mentioned on death certificates: the first two multiple-cause-of-death methods assigned non-zero weights to all causes mentioned and the third assigned non-zero weights to only the underlying cause and other contributing causes that were not part of the main morbid process. As the sum of the weights for each death certificate was 1, each death had an equal influence on mortality estimates and the total number of deaths was unchanged. Mortality rates derived using the different methods were compared. Findings On average, 3.4 causes per death were listed on each certificate. The standardized mortality rate calculated using the third multiple-cause-of-death weighting method was more than 20% higher than that calculated using the classic method for five disease categories: skin diseases, mental disorders, endocrine and nutritional diseases, blood diseases and genitourinary diseases. Moreover, this method highlighted the mortality burden associated with certain diseases in specific age groups. Conclusion A multiple-cause-of-death weighting approach to calculating cause-related standardized mortality rates from death certificate data identified conditions that contributed more to mortality than indicated by the classic method. This new approach holds promise for identifying underrecognized contributors to mortality. PMID:27994280

Heat-Related Illnesses

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Full Text Available ... Health System in Chesterfield, Missouri Heat-related illness can be caused by overexposure to the sun or ... the elderly are most at risk, but anyone can be affected. Here you will find information about ...

Heat-Related Illnesses

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Full Text Available ... ICE” in Your Cell Phone Prepare for Disasters Communication With Your Family And Your Doctor About Your ... Dr. Glenn Mitchell , Emergency physician at Mercy Health System in Chesterfield, Missouri Heat-related illness can be ...

The contribution of unimproved water and toilet facilities to pregnancy-related mortality in Afghanistan: analysis of the Afghan Mortality Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Gon, Giorgia; Monzon-Llamas, Laura; Benova, Lenka; Willey, Barbara; Campbell, Oona M R

2014-12-01

To estimate the effect of unimproved household water and toilet facilities on pregnancy-related mortality in Afghanistan. The data source was a population-based cross-sectional study, the Afghan Mortality Survey 2010. Descriptive, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were carried out, comparing 69 pregnancy-related deaths (cases) and 15386 surviving women (non-cases) who had a live birth or stillbirth between 2007 and 2010. After adjusting for confounders, households with unimproved water access had 1.91 the odds of pregnancy-related mortality [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-3.30] compared to households with improved water access. We also found an association between unimproved toilet facilities and pregnancy-related mortality (OR = 2.25; 95% CI 0.71-7.19; P-value = 0.169), but it was not statistically significant. Unimproved household water access was an important risk factor for pregnancy-related mortality in Afghanistan. However, we were unable to discern whether unimproved water source is a marker of unhygienic environments or socio-economic position. There was weak evidence for the association between unimproved toilet facilities and pregnancy-related mortality; this association requires confirmation from larger studies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drug-related mortality in Denmark 1970-93

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juel, K; Helweg-Larsen, K

1999-01-01

We analysed drug-related mortality in Denmark with respect to secular trends, gender, and regional variations, for the period 1970-93, for all deaths from poisoning and among drug addicts. The study was based on the Register of Causes of Death in Denmark and included 6,229 drug-related deaths...

The cost of lost productivity due to premature cancer-related mortality: an economic measure of the cancer burden.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanly, Paul A; Sharp, Linda

2014-03-26

Most measures of the cancer burden take a public health perspective. Cancer also has a significant economic impact on society. To assess this economic burden, we estimated years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL) and costs of lost productivity due to premature cancer-related mortality in Ireland. All cancers combined and the 10 sites accounting for most deaths in men and in women were considered. To compute YPPLL, deaths in 5-year age-bands between 15 and 64 years were multiplied by average working-life expectancy. Valuation of costs, using the human capital approach, involved multiplying YPPLL by age-and-gender specific gross wages, and adjusting for unemployment and workforce participation. Sensitivity analyses were conducted around retirement age and wage growth, labour force participation, employment and discount rates, and to explore the impact of including household production and caring costs. Costs were expressed in €2009. Total YPPLL was lower in men than women (men = 10,873; women = 12,119). Premature cancer-related mortality costs were higher in men (men: total cost = €332 million, cost/death = €290,172, cost/YPPLL = €30,558; women: total cost = €177 million, cost/death = €159,959, cost/YPPLL = €14,628). Lung cancer had the highest premature mortality cost (€84.0 million; 16.5% of total costs), followed by cancers of the colorectum (€49.6 million; 9.7%), breast (€49.4 million; 9.7%) and brain & CNS (€42.4 million: 8.3%). The total economic cost of premature cancer-related mortality in Ireland amounted to €509.5 million or 0.3% of gross domestic product. An increase of one year in the retirement age increased the total all-cancer premature mortality cost by 9.9% for men and 5.9% for women. The inclusion of household production and caring costs increased the total cost to €945.7 million. Lost productivity costs due to cancer-related premature mortality are significant. The higher premature mortality cost in males than

Strategies to Reduce the Harmful Effects of Extreme Heat Events: A Four-City Study

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Jalonne L. White-Newsome

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Extreme heat events (EHEs are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ—cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality.

Simulated Impacts of Juvenile Mortality on Gulf of Mexico Sturgeon Populations

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William B. Tate

2002-01-01

Full Text Available We used an age-structured computer model to assess the impact of changes in juvenile mortality on the Gulf of Mexico sturgeon population in the Suwannee River, Florida. We simulated population trends under four levels of annual juvenile mortality (20, 25, 30, and 35%. As the rate of mortality increased, population size decreased, and rates of population growth shifted from positive to negative. Our models indicated that juvenile survival is important to the success of gulf sturgeon populations, and mortality estimates are needed to predict population viability. We suggest that life history studies in estuaries should be conducted, and bycatch rates for commercial fisheries should be quantified to aid in the management and conservation of gulf sturgeon.

Heat demand profiles of energy conservation measures in buildings and their impact on a district heating system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundström, Lukas; Wallin, Fredrik

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Energy savings impact on an low CO 2 emitting district heating system. • Heat profiles of eight building energy conservation measures. • Exhaust air heat pump, heat recovery ventilation, electricity savings etc. • Heat load weather normalisation with segmented multivariable linear regression. - Abstract: This study highlights the forthcoming problem with diminishing environmental benefits from heat demand reducing energy conservation measures (ECM) of buildings within district heating systems (DHS), as the supply side is becoming “greener” and more primary energy efficient. In this study heat demand profiles and annual electricity-to-heat factors of ECMs in buildings are computed and their impact on system efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions of a Swedish biomass fuelled and combined heat and power utilising DHS are assessed. A weather normalising method for the DHS heat load is developed, combining segmented multivariable linear regressions with typical meteorological year weather data to enable the DHS model and the buildings model to work under the same weather conditions. Improving the buildings’ envelope insulation level and thereby levelling out the DHS heat load curve reduces greenhouse gas emissions and improves primary energy efficiency. Reducing household electricity use proves to be highly beneficial, partly because it increases heat demand, allowing for more cogeneration of electricity. However the other ECMs considered may cause increased greenhouse gas emissions, mainly because of their adverse impact on the cogeneration of electricity. If biomass fuels are considered as residuals, and thus assigned low primary energy factors, primary energy efficiency decreases when implementing ECMs that lower heat demand.

Chaparral Shrub Hydraulic Traits, Size, and Life History Types Relate to Species Mortality during California's Historic Drought of 2014.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin D Venturas

Full Text Available Chaparral is the most abundant vegetation type in California and current climate change models predict more frequent and severe droughts that could impact plant community structure. Understanding the factors related to species-specific drought mortality is essential to predict such changes. We predicted that life history type, hydraulic traits, and plant size would be related to the ability of species to survive drought. We evaluated the impact of these factors in a mature chaparral stand during the drought of 2014, which has been reported as the most severe in California in the last 1,200 years. We measured tissue water potential, native xylem specific conductivity, leaf specific conductivity, percentage loss in conductivity, and chlorophyll fluorescence for 11 species in February 2014, which was exceptionally dry following protracted drought. Mortality among the 11 dominant species ranged from 0 to 93%. Total stand density was reduced 63.4% and relative dominance of species shifted after the drought. Mortality was negatively correlated with water potential, native xylem specific conductivity, and chlorophyll fluorescence, but not with percent loss in hydraulic conductivity and leaf specific conductivity. The model that best explained mortality included species and plant size as main factors and indicated that larger plants had greater survival for 2 of the species. In general, species with greater resistance to water-stress induced cavitation showed greater mortality levels. Despite adult resprouters typically being more vulnerable to cavitation, results suggest that their more extensive root systems enable them to better access soil moisture and avoid harmful levels of dehydration. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that short-term high intensity droughts have the strongest effect on mature plants of shallow-rooted dehydration tolerant species, whereas deep-rooted dehydration avoiding species fare better in the short

Population-Wide Impact of Non-Hip Non-Vertebral Fractures on Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Thach; Bliuc, Dana; van Geel, Tineke; Adachi, Jonathan D; Berger, Claudie; van den Bergh, Joop; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet; Goltzman, David; Hanley, David A; Josse, Robert G; Kaiser, Stephanie M; Kovacs, Christopher S; Langsetmo, Lisa; Prior, Jerilynn C; Nguyen, Tuan V; Center, Jacqueline R

2017-09-01

Data on long-term consequences of non-hip non-vertebral (NHNV) fractures, accounting for approximately two-thirds of all fragility fractures, are scanty. Our study aimed to quantify the population-wide impact of NHNV fractures on mortality. The national population-based prospective cohort study (Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study) included 5526 community dwelling women and 2163 men aged 50 years or older followed from July 1995 to September 2013. Population impact number was used to quantify the average number of people for whom one death would be attributable to fracture and case impact number to quantify the number of deaths out of which one would be attributable to a fracture. There were 1370 fragility fractures followed by 296 deaths in women (mortality rate: 3.49; 95% CI, 3.11 to 3.91), and 302 fractures with 92 deaths in men (5.05; 95% CI, 4.12 to 6.20). NHNV fractures accounted for three-quarters of fractures. In women, the population-wide impact of NHNV fractures on mortality was greater than that of hip and vertebral fractures because of the greater number of NHNV fractures. Out of 800 women, one death was estimated to be attributable to a NHNV fracture, compared with one death in 2000 women attributable to hip or vertebral fracture. Similarly, out of 15 deaths in women, one was estimated to be attributable to a NHNV fracture, compared with one in over 40 deaths for hip or vertebral fracture. The impact of forearm fractures (ie, one death in 2400 women and one out of 42 deaths in women attributable to forearm fracture) was similar to that of hip, vertebral, or rib fractures. Similar, albeit not significant, results were noted for men. The study highlights the important contribution of NHNV fractures on mortality because many NHNV fracture types, except for the most distal fractures, have serious adverse consequences that affect a significant proportion of the population. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society

International Comparisons of Infant Mortality and Related Factors : United States and Europe, 2010

NARCIS (Netherlands)

MacDorman, M.F.; Mathews, T.J.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Zeitlin, J.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This report investigates the reasons for the United States' high infant mortality rate when compared with European countries. Specifically, the report measures the impact on infant mortality differences of two major factors: the percentage of preterm births and gestational age-specific

The role of heat shock protein 70 in mediating age-dependent mortality in sepsis.

Science.gov (United States)

McConnell, Kevin W; Fox, Amy C; Clark, Andrew T; Chang, Nai-Yuan Nicholas; Dominguez, Jessica A; Farris, Alton B; Buchman, Timothy G; Hunt, Clayton R; Coopersmith, Craig M

2011-03-15

Sepsis is primarily a disease of the aged, with increased incidence and mortality occurring in aged hosts. Heat shock protein (HSP) 70 plays an important role in both healthy aging and the stress response to injury. The purpose of this study was to determine the role of HSP70 in mediating mortality and the host inflammatory response in aged septic hosts. Sepsis was induced in both young (6- to 12-wk-old) and aged (16- to 17-mo-old) HSP70(-/-) and wild-type (WT) mice to determine whether HSP70 modulated outcome in an age-dependent fashion. Young HSP70(-/-) and WT mice subjected to cecal ligation and puncture, Pseudomonas aeruginosa pneumonia, or Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia had no differences in mortality, suggesting HSP70 does not mediate survival in young septic hosts. In contrast, mortality was higher in aged HSP70(-/-) mice than aged WT mice subjected to cecal ligation and puncture (p = 0.01), suggesting HSP70 mediates mortality in sepsis in an age-dependent fashion. Compared with WT mice, aged septic HSP70(-/-) mice had increased gut epithelial apoptosis and pulmonary inflammation. In addition, HSP70(-/-) mice had increased systemic levels of TNF-α, IL-6, IL-10, and IL-1β compared with WT mice. These data demonstrate that HSP70 is a key determinant of mortality in aged, but not young hosts in sepsis. HSP70 may play a protective role in an age-dependent response to sepsis by preventing excessive gut apoptosis and both pulmonary and systemic inflammation.

Anesthesia-related mortality in pediatric patients: a systematic review

OpenAIRE

Gonzalez, Leopoldo Palheta; Pignaton, Wangles; Kusano, Priscila Sayuri; Módolo, Norma Sueli Pinheiro; Braz, José Reinaldo Cerqueira; Braz, Leandro Gobbo

2012-01-01

This systematic review of the Brazilian and worldwide literature aimed to evaluate the incidence and causes of perioperative and anesthesia-related mortality in pediatric patients. Studies were identified by searching EMBASE (1951-2011), PubMed (1966-2011), LILACS (1986-2011), and SciElo (1995-2011). Each paper was revised to identify the author(s), the data source, the time period, the number of patients, the time of death, and the perioperative and anesthesia-related mortality rates. Twenty...

Income inequality, social capital and self-inflicted injury and violence-related mortality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huisman, M.; Oldehinkel, A. J.

Background: The objective of the study was to investigate the relation of income inequality and indicators of social capital to self-inflicted injury mortality (suicide) and violence-related mortality, and to the share of total mortality that is due to these two causes of death in 35 developed

Infant mortality in India: use of maternal and child health services in relation to literacy status.

Science.gov (United States)

Gokhale, Medha K; Rao, Shobha S; Garole, Varsha R

2002-06-01

Slow reduction in infant mortality rate in the last couple of decades is a major concern in India. State-level aggregate data from the National Family Health Survey 1992 and micro-level data on rural mothers (n=317) were used for examining the influence of female literacy on reduction of infant mortality through increased use of maternal and child health (MCH) services. Illiteracy of females was strongly associated with all variables relating to maternal care and also with infant mortality rate. States were grouped into best, medium, and worst on the basis of female illiteracy (about 11%, 48.5%, and 75% respectively). Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 livebirths) was significantly (pIlliteracy of females had a more detrimental impact on rural than on urban areas. In the event of high female illiteracy, male literacy was beneficial for improving the use of services for reducing infant mortality rate. The micro-level study supported all major findings obtained for the national-level aggregate data. Programmes, like providing free education to girls, will yield long-term health benefits.

Rivalry, solidarity, and longevity among siblings: A life course approach to the impact of sibship composition and birth order on later life mortality risk, Antwerp (1846-1920

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Robyn Donrovich

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Family composition and household dynamics, both in early and in later life, influence individual health and longevity. Both positive and negative effects can be expected in terms of sibling size and composition. On one hand, siblings compete with each other, which may lead to resource dilution and increased adult mortality risks. On the other hand, siblings protect and care for each other, which may have a positive impact on longevity. Objective: To investigate the way in which sibling composition (with respect to sibship size, sex, and birth order in the family of orientation and the proximity of siblings in later life relates to adult mortality risks at ages 50+. Methods: Life courses of 258 men and 275 women from the Antwerp COR*-database were 'reconstructed' and analyzed by way of event history analysis using Gompertz shared frailty models. Results: Being higher in birth order related to significantly higher mortality risk after age 50 for men. Having older brothers, particularly those present in later life, was associated with very high excess mortality risk for both sexes, though men were more strongly disadvantaged. Having (more younger sisters present at RP (research person age 50 was related to significantly lower relative mortality risk for women. Conclusions: Our findings highlight the complex relationships between sibling and gender dynamics and mortality risk in later life. Evidence of a lasting impact of sibling competition on mortality risk over age 50 is found; and competition is only replaced by solidarity in critical times (e.g., widowhood, wherein older sibling presence dissimilarly impacts different social groups.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

Science.gov (United States)

Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

2015-04-01

The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater

The impact of incisional hernia on mortality after colonic cancer resection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Kristian Kiim; Erichsen, Rune; Krarup, Peter Martin

2016-01-01

intended colonic resection for cancer with primary anastomosis between 2001 and 2008 were included. The exposure of interest was incisional hernia, as registered in the NPR, and the outcome was long-term overall mortality. Extended cox regression analysis was used to adjust for confounding variables...... the impact of incisional hernia on mortality after colonic cancer resection. METHOD: This was a nationwide cohort study comprising data from the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group's database, the Danish National Patient Registry (NPR), and the Danish Central Person Registry. Patients who underwent curatively...... with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 2.35, 95 % confidence interval 1.39-3.98), while incisional hernia repair did not increase mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.81, 95 % confidence interval 0.68-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: Incisional hernia diagnosis or repair subsequent to colonic cancer resection did...

Impact of training traditional birth attendants on maternal mortality and morbidity in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Kayombo, Edmund J

2013-04-01

This paper presents discussion on impact of training traditional birth attendants (TBAs) on overall improvement of reproductive health care with focus on reducing the high rate of maternal and new-born mortality in rural settings in sub-Saharan Africa. The importance of TBAs for years has been denied by professional western trained health practitioners and other scientists until during the late 1980s, when World Health Organization through Safe motherhood 1987 found TBAs have a significant role in reducing maternal and new-born mortality. Trained TBAs in sub-Sahara Africa can have positive impact on reducing maternal and new-born mortality if the programme is well implemented with systematic follow-up after training. This could be done through joint meeting between health workers and TBAs as feed and learning experience from problem encountered in process of providing child delivery services. TBAs can help to break socio-cultural barriers on intervention on reproductive health programmes. However projects targeting TBAs should not be of hit and run; but gradually familiarize with the target group, build trust, transparency, and tolerance, willing to learn and creating rappour with them. In this paper, some case studies are described on how trained TBAs can be fully utilized in reducing maternal and new-born mortality rate in rural areas. What is needed is to identify TBAs, map their distribution and train them on basic primary healthcare related to child deliveries and complications which need to be referred to conventional health facilities immediately.

Impact of the economic crisis on the health of older persons in Spain: research clues based on an analysis of mortality. SESPAS report 2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tarik Benmarhnia

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Older adults are seldom considered in studies on the health impact of economic recessions or crises. However, they constitute a population group that is highly vulnerable to decreases in investment in health and social services and social security. Our aim is to examine the relationship between the economic crisis starting in 2008 and the health status of older adults in Spain. More specifically, we analyze changes in trends of mortality in relation to the crisis, the specific impact of winter on mortality and gender differences in the crisis’ impact on mortality. Using data from the National Institute of Statistics of Spain on people over 60 years of age, the number of monthly deaths by age and sex from January 2005 to December 2012 was analyzed. Interrupted time series analyses and the “difference in differences” method were used. During the crisis, for adults 60 years and older: 1 the observed mortality seems to be decreasing at a slower rate than what would have been expected in the absence of the crisis; 2 there has been an increase in winter mortality; 3 the impact of the crisis has been greater for female than for male mortality. These results suggest sizable effects of the economic crisis on the mortality of older adults and argue for research done using more detailed analyses integrating economic indicators.

Climate change projections of heat stress in Europe: From meteorological variables to impacts on productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Casanueva, Ana; Kotlarski, Sven; Liniger, Mark A.

2017-04-01

Future climate change is likely to have important impacts in many socio-economic sectors. In particular, higher summer temperatures or more prolonged heat waves may be responsible for health problems and productivity losses related to heat stress, especially affecting people exposed to such situations (e.g. working under outside settings or in non-acclimatized workplaces). Heat stress on the body under work load and consequently their productivity loss can be described through heat stress indices that are based on multiple meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind and radiation. Exploring the changes of these variables under a warmer climate is of prime importance for the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability communities. In particular, the H2020 project HEAT-SHIELD aims at analyzing the impact of climate change on heat stress in strategic industries in Europe (manufacturing, construction, transportation, tourism and agriculture) within an inter-sectoral framework (climate scientists, biometeorologists, physiologists and stakeholders). In the present work we explore present and future heat stress over Europe using an ensemble of the state-of-the-art RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Since RCMs cannot be directly used in impact studies due to their partly substantial biases, a standard bias correction method (empirical quantile mapping) is applied to correct the individual variables that are then used to derive heat stress indices. The objectives of this study are twofold, 1) to test the ability of the separately bias corrected variables to reproduce the main characteristics of heat stress indices in present climate conditions and 2) to explore climate change projections of heat stress indices. We use the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as primary heat stress index, considering two different versions for indoor (or in the shade, based on temperature and humidity conditions) and outdoor settings (including also wind and radiation). The WBGT

Health impacts of air pollution on morbidity and mortality among children of Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico : working paper

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romieu, I.; Aguilar, M.R.; Macias, H.M.; Villarreal, A.B.; Cadena, L.H.; Arroyo, L.C.

2003-01-01

This study evaluated the impact of air pollution on a group of children in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico where a large urban population of children live in poor conditions. In particular, the study examined the associations between ozone ambient levels and respiratory-related emergency visits to hospitals by children. The impact of PM10 on respiratory health was also examined. Upper respiratory infections and asthma were found to be associated with ozone ambient levels for all age groups. In children aged 5 or less, ozone exposure was related to lower respiratory infections as well. Ambient air pollutants were not related to respiratory deaths in the population of children involved in this study, but data suggests that that PM10 ambient levels might increase the risk of respiratory mortality in infants less than one year old. An increase in respiratory mortality was noted among infants from the lowest socio-economic status (SES) group. This report emphasizes the need for implementing cost effective interventions to control existing air pollution problems and to prevent the situation from worsening. 22 refs., 27 tabs., 5 figs

Temperature-Related Death and Illness. Chapter 2

Science.gov (United States)

Sarofim, Marcus C.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Mills, David M.; Hess, Jeremy; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick; Schwartz, Joel; St. Juliana, Alexis

2016-01-01

Based on present-day sensitivity to heat, an increase of thousands to tens of thousands of premature heat-related deaths in the summer and a decrease of premature cold-related deaths in the winter are projected each year as a result of climate change by the end of the century. Future adaptation will very likely reduce these impacts (see Changing Tolerance to Extreme Heat Finding). The reduction in cold-related deaths is projected to be smaller than the increase in heat-related deaths in most regions. Days that are hotter than usual in the summer or colder than usual in the winter are both associated with increased illness and death. Mortality effects are observed even for small differences from seasonal average temperatures. Because small temperature differences occur much more frequently than large temperature differences, not accounting for the effect of these small differences would lead to underestimating the future impact of climate change. An increase in population tolerance to extreme heat has been observed over time. Changes in this tolerance have been associated with increased use of air conditioning, improved social responses, and or physiological acclimatization, among other factors. Expected future increases in this tolerance will reduce the projected increase in deaths from heat. Older adults and children have a higher risk of dying or becoming ill due to extreme heat. People working outdoors, the socially isolated and economically disadvantaged, those with chronic illnesses, as well as some communities of color, are also especially vulnerable to death or illness.

Estimating population heat exposure and impacts on working people in conjunction with climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Briggs, David

2018-03-01

Increased environmental heat levels as a result of climate change present a major challenge to the health, wellbeing and sustainability of human communities in already hot parts of this planet. This challenge has many facets from direct clinical health effects of daily heat exposure to indirect effects related to poor air quality, poor access to safe drinking water, poor access to nutritious and safe food and inadequate protection from disease vectors and environmental toxic chemicals. The increasing environmental heat is a threat to environmental sustainability. In addition, social conditions can be undermined by the negative effects of increased heat on daily work and life activities and on local cultural practices. The methodology we describe can be used to produce quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on work activities in countries and local communities. We show in maps the increasing heat exposures in the shade expressed as the occupational heat stress index Wet Bulb Globe Temperature. Some tropical and sub-tropical areas already experience serious heat stress, and the continuing heating will substantially reduce work capacity and labour productivity in widening parts of the world. Southern parts of Europe and the USA will also be affected. Even the lowest target for climate change (average global temperature change = 1.5 °C at representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6) will increase the loss of daylight work hour output due to heat in many tropical areas from less than 2% now up to more than 6% at the end of the century. A global temperature change of 2.7 °C (at RCP6.0) will double this annual heat impact on work in such areas. Calculations of this type of heat impact at country level show that in the USA, the loss of work capacity in moderate level work in the shade will increase from 0.17% now to more than 1.3% at the end of the century based on the 2.7 °C temperature change. The impact is naturally mainly occurring in the southern

Why is the gender gap in life expectancy decreasing? The impact of age- and cause-specific mortality in Sweden 1997-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundberg, Louise; Agahi, Neda; Fritzell, Johan; Fors, Stefan

2018-04-13

To enhance the understanding of the current increase in life expectancy and decreasing gender gap in life expectancy. We obtained data on underlying cause of death from the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden for 1997 and 2014 and used Arriaga's method to decompose life expectancy by age group and 24 causes of death. Decreased mortality from ischemic heart disease had the largest impact on the increased life expectancy of both men and women and on the decreased gender gap in life expectancy. Increased mortality from Alzheimer's disease negatively influenced overall life expectancy, but because of higher female mortality, it also served to decrease the gender gap in life expectancy. The impact of other causes of death, particularly smoking-related causes, decreased in men but increased in women, also reducing the gap in life expectancy. This study shows that a focus on overall changes in life expectancies may hide important differences in age- and cause-specific mortality. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing modifiable lifestyle factors to reduce avoidable mortality.

Impact of Social Capital on 8-year Mortality Among Older People in 34 Danish Municipalities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Tine; Siersma, Volkert Dirk; Christensen, Ulla

2012-01-01

To analyze the impact of social capital measures (bonding, bridging, and linking) on all-cause mortality at 8-year follow-up among older people aged 75 and 80 at baseline.......To analyze the impact of social capital measures (bonding, bridging, and linking) on all-cause mortality at 8-year follow-up among older people aged 75 and 80 at baseline....

Economic impact of reduced mortality due to increased cycling.

Science.gov (United States)

Rutter, Harry; Cavill, Nick; Racioppi, Francesca; Dinsdale, Hywell; Oja, Pekka; Kahlmeier, Sonja

2013-01-01

Increasing regular physical activity is a key public health goal. One strategy is to change the physical environment to encourage walking and cycling, requiring partnerships with the transport and urban planning sectors. Economic evaluation is an important factor in the decision to fund any new transport scheme, but techniques for assessing the economic value of the health benefits of cycling and walking have tended to be less sophisticated than the approaches used for assessing other benefits. This study aimed to produce a practical tool for estimating the economic impact of reduced mortality due to increased cycling. The tool was intended to be transparent, easy to use, reliable, and based on conservative assumptions and default values, which can be used in the absence of local data. It addressed the question: For a given volume of cycling within a defined population, what is the economic value of the health benefits? The authors used published estimates of relative risk of all-cause mortality among regular cyclists and applied these to levels of cycling defined by the user to produce an estimate of the number of deaths potentially averted because of regular cycling. The tool then calculates the economic value of the deaths averted using the "value of a statistical life." The outputs of the tool support decision making on cycle infrastructure or policies, or can be used as part of an integrated economic appraisal. The tool's unique contribution is that it takes a public health approach to a transport problem, addresses it in epidemiologic terms, and places the results back into the transport context. Examples of its use include its adoption by the English and Swedish departments of transport as the recommended methodologic approach for estimating the health impact of walking and cycling. Copyright © 2013 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heat-related illness in the African wilderness

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Wilderness heat-related illnesses span a continuum of medical problems caused by ... of modern science, clothing technology, and an understanding of physiology ..... guidelines for wilderness emergency care, heat-related illnesses, and EAH ...

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

Science.gov (United States)

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in childhood mortality in Ghana: impacts and challenges of health policies and programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gbenga A. Kayode

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Following the adoption of the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4 in Ghana to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, efforts were made towards its attainment. However, impacts and challenges of implemented intervention programs have not been examined to inform implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2 that seeks to end preventable deaths of newborns and children aged under-five. Thus, this study aimed to compare trends in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality over two decades and to highlight the impacts and challenges of health policies and intervention programs implemented. Design: Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data (1988–2008 were analyzed using trend analysis. Poisson regression analysis was applied to quantify the incidence rate ratio of the trends. Implemented health policies and intervention programs to reduce childhood mortality in Ghana were reviewed to identify their impact and challenges. Results: Since 1988, the annual average rate of decline in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality in Ghana was 0.6, 1.0, and 1.2%, respectively. From 1988 to 1989, neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality declined from 48 to 33 per 1,000, 72 to 58 per 1,000, and 108 to 83 per 1,000, respectively, whereas from 1989 to 2008, neonatal mortality increased by 2 per 1,000 while infant and under-five mortality further declined by 6 per 1,000 and 17 per 1,000, respectively. However, the observed declines were not statistically significant except for under-five mortality; thus, the proportion of infant and under-five mortality attributed to neonatal death has increased. Most intervention programs implemented to address childhood mortality seem not to have been implemented comprehensively. Conclusion: Progress towards attaining MDG 4 in Ghana was below the targeted rate, particularly for neonatal mortality as most health policies and programs targeted infant and under-five mortality

Climate Change-Related Water Disasters' Impact on Population Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Veenema, Tener Goodwin; Thornton, Clifton P; Lavin, Roberta Proffitt; Bender, Annah K; Seal, Stella; Corley, Andrew

2017-11-01

Rising global temperatures have resulted in an increased frequency and severity of cyclones, hurricanes, and flooding in many parts of the world. These climate change-related water disasters (CCRWDs) have a devastating impact on communities and the health of residents. Clinicians and policymakers require a substantive body of evidence on which to base planning, prevention, and disaster response to these events. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature concerning the impact of CCRWDs on public health in order to identify factors in these events that are amenable to preparedness and mitigation. Ultimately, this evidence could be used by nurses to advocate for greater preparedness initiatives and inform national and international disaster policy. A systematic literature review of publications identified through a comprehensive search of five relevant databases (PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature [CINAHL], Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science) was conducted using a modified Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach in January 2017 to describe major themes and associated factors of the impact of CCRWDs on population health. Three major themes emerged: environmental disruption resulting in exposure to toxins, population susceptibility, and health systems infrastructure (failure to plan-prepare-mitigate, inadequate response, and lack of infrastructure). Direct health impact was characterized by four major categories: weather-related morbidity and mortality, waterborne diseases/water-related illness, vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, and psychiatric/mental health effects. Scope and duration of the event are factors that exacerbate the impact of CCRWDs. Discussion of specific factors amenable to mitigation was limited. Flooding as an event was overrepresented in this analysis (60%), and the majority of the research reviewed was conducted in high-income or upper

General Practitioners’ Perceptions of Heat Health Impacts on the Elderly in the Face of Climate Change—A Qualitative Study in Baden-Württemberg, Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Herrmann, Alina; Sauerborn, Rainer

2018-01-01

Heat health impacts (HHI) on the elderly are a growing concern in the face of climate change and aging populations. General practitioners (GPs) have an important role in health care for the elderly. To inform the development of effective prevention measures, it is important to investigate GPs’ perceptions of HHI. Twenty four qualitative expert interviews were conducted with GPs and analyzed using the framework approach. GPs were generally aware of heat health impacts, focusing on cardiovascular morbidity and volume imbalances. Perceptions of mortality and for instance impacts on respiratory diseases or potentially risky drugs in heat waves partly diverged from findings in literature. GPs judged the current relevance of HHI differently depending on their attitudes towards: (i) sensitivity of the elderly, (ii) status of nursing care and (iii) heat exposure in Baden-Württemberg. Future relevance of HHI was perceived to be increasing by most GPs. The main cause identified for this was population aging, while impacts of climate change were judged as uncertain by many. GPs’ perceptions, partly diverging from literature, show that GPs’ knowledge and awareness on HHI and climate change needs to be strengthened. However, they also emphasize the need for more research on HHI in the ambulant health care setting. Furthermore, GPs perceptions suggest that strong nursing care and social networks for elderly are major elements of a climate resilient health system. PMID:29695135

The impacts of groundwater heat pumps on urban shallow ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DR TONUKARI NYEROVWO

2011-07-25

Jul 25, 2011 ... In order to assess the impacts of groundwater heat pumps on urban shallow groundwater ... thermal transfer systems that use the ground water as a ... Abbreviations: GWHPs, Groundwater heat pumps; GHGs, ... Areas (Mm2).

The Impact of Heat Waves on Occurrence and Severity of Construction Accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Rameezdeen, Rameez; Elmualim, Abbas

2017-01-11

The impact of heat stress on human health has been extensively studied. Similarly, researchers have investigated the impact of heat stress on workers' health and safety. However, very little work has been done on the impact of heat stress on occupational accidents and their severity, particularly in South Australian construction. Construction workers are at high risk of injury due to heat stress as they often work outdoors, undertake hard manual work, and are often project based and sub-contracted. Little is known on how heat waves could impact on construction accidents and their severity. In order to provide more evidence for the currently limited number of empirical investigations on the impact of heat stress on accidents, this study analysed 29,438 compensation claims reported during 2002-2013 within the construction industry of South Australia. Claims reported during 29 heat waves in Adelaide were compared with control periods to elicit differences in the number of accidents reported and their severity. The results revealed that worker characteristics, type of work, work environment, and agency of accident mainly govern the severity. It is recommended that the implementation of adequate preventative measures in small-sized companies and civil engineering sites, targeting mainly old age workers could be a priority for Work, Health and Safety (WHS) policies.

The Impact of Heat Waves on Occurrence and Severity of Construction Accidents

Science.gov (United States)

Rameezdeen, Rameez; Elmualim, Abbas

2017-01-01

The impact of heat stress on human health has been extensively studied. Similarly, researchers have investigated the impact of heat stress on workers’ health and safety. However, very little work has been done on the impact of heat stress on occupational accidents and their severity, particularly in South Australian construction. Construction workers are at high risk of injury due to heat stress as they often work outdoors, undertake hard manual work, and are often project based and sub-contracted. Little is known on how heat waves could impact on construction accidents and their severity. In order to provide more evidence for the currently limited number of empirical investigations on the impact of heat stress on accidents, this study analysed 29,438 compensation claims reported during 2002–2013 within the construction industry of South Australia. Claims reported during 29 heat waves in Adelaide were compared with control periods to elicit differences in the number of accidents reported and their severity. The results revealed that worker characteristics, type of work, work environment, and agency of accident mainly govern the severity. It is recommended that the implementation of adequate preventative measures in small-sized companies and civil engineering sites, targeting mainly old age workers could be a priority for Work, Health and Safety (WHS) policies. PMID:28085067

Impact of mild renal impairment on early postoperative mortality after open cardiac surgery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A Abdel Ghani; Muath Al Nasar

2010-01-01

Preoperative severe renal impairment is included in the risk scores to predict outcome after open cardiac surgery. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of pr operative mild renal impairment on the early postoperative mortality after open heart surgery. Data of all cases of open cardiac surgery performed from January 2005 to June 2006 were collected. Cases with preoperative creatinine clearance below 60 mL/min were excluded from the study. Data were retrospectively analyzed to find the impact of renal impairment on short-term outcome. Of the 500 cases studied, 47 had preoperative creatinine clearance between 89-60 mL/min. The overall mortality in the study cases was 6.8%. The mortality was 28.7% in those who developed postoperative ARF, 33.3% in those who required dialysis and 40.8% in those with preoperative mild renal impairment. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that female gender (P = 0.01), preoperative mild renal impairment (P 0.007) as well as occurrence of multi organ failure (P < 0.001) were the only independent variables determining the early postoperative mortality after cardiac surgeries. Among them, preoperative mild renal impairment was the most significant and the best predictor for early postoperative mortality after cardiac surgery. Our study suggests that renal impairment remains a strong predictor of early mortality even after adjustment for several confounders (Author).

Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidlin, Kurt; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M; Spoerri, Adrian; Egger, Matthias; Zwahlen, Marcel

2013-01-04

Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates

Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schmidlin Kurt

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC. Methods The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons and 2000 (7.3 million persons censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991–2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD, using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. Results SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4% - 17.9% in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75–84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between −1.4% and +1.8%. In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12% - 28% and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7% - 23% cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy

The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pechan, Anna; Eisenack, Klaus

2014-01-01

Thermoelectric power plants depend on cooling water drawn from water bodies. Low river run-off and/or high water temperatures limit a plant's production capacity. This problem may intensify with climate change. Our study quantifies the impact of forced capacity reductions on market prices, production costs, consumer and producer surplus, as well as emissions by means of a bottom-up power generation system model. First, we simulate the German electricity spot market during the heat wave of 2006. Then we conduct a sensitivity study that accounts for future climatic and technological conditions. We find an average price increase of 11% during the heat wave 2006, which is even more pronounced during times of peak demand. Production costs accumulate to an additional but moderate 16 m. Due to the price increase, producers gain from the heat wave, whereas consumers disproportionately bear the costs. Carbon emissions in the German electricity sector increase during the heat wave. The price and cost effects are more pronounced and increase significantly if assumptions on heat-sensitive demand, hydropower capacity, net exports, and capacity reductions are tightened. These are potential additional effects of climate change. Hence, if mitigation fails or is postponed globally, the impacts on the current energy system are very likely to rise. Increases in feed-in from renewable resources and demand-side management can counter the effects to a considerable degree. Countries with a shift toward a renewable energy supply can be expected to be much less susceptible to cooling water scarcity than those with a high share of nuclear and coal-fired power plants. - Highlights: • We quantify the impact of thermal capacity reductions on the electricity market. • German heat wave 2006 caused moderate rise in production costs. • Capacity reductions have substantial impact on prices and raise producer surplus. • Impacts on prices, production cost and surplus amplify under climate

Impact of the economic crisis on the health of older persons in Spain: research clues based on an analysis of mortality. SESPAS report 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Zunzunegui, Maria-Victoria; Llácer, Alicia; Béland, Francois

2014-06-01

Older adults are seldom considered in studies on the health impact of economic recessions or crises. However, they constitute a population group that is highly vulnerable to decreases in investment in health and social services and social security. Our aim is to examine the relationship between the economic crisis starting in 2008 and the health status of older adults in Spain. More specifically, we analyze changes in trends of mortality in relation to the crisis, the specific impact of winter on mortality and gender differences in the crisis' impact on mortality. Using data from the National Institute of Statistics of Spain on people over 60 years of age, the number of monthly deaths by age and sex from January 2005 to December 2012 was analyzed. Interrupted time series analyses and the "difference in differences" method were used. During the crisis, for adults 60 years and older: 1) the observed mortality seems to be decreasing at a slower rate than what would have been expected in the absence of the crisis; 2) there has been an increase in winter mortality; 3) the impact of the crisis has been greater for female than for male mortality. These results suggest sizable effects of the economic crisis on the mortality of older adults and argue for research done using more detailed analyses integrating economic indicators. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

OCCUPATION AND MORTALITY RELATED TO ALCOHOL DRUGS AND SEXUAL HABITS

Science.gov (United States)

Coggon, David; Harris, E. Clare; Brown, Terry; Rice, Simon; Palmer, Keith T

2011-01-01

AIms To identify opportunities for targeted prevention, we explored differences in occupational mortality from diseases and injuries related to alcohol consumption, sexual habits and drug abuse. Methods Using data on all deaths among men and women aged 16-74 years in England and Wales during 1991-2000, we derived age- and social class-standardised proportional mortality ratios (PMRs) by occupation for cause of death categories defined a priori as potentially related to alcohol consumption, sexual habits or drug abuse. Results The highest mortality from alcohol-related diseases and injuries was observed in publicans and bar staff (both sexes), and in male caterers, cooks and kitchen porters, and seafarers. Male seafarers had significantly elevated PMRs for cirrhosis (179), “other alcohol-related diseases” (275), cancers of the liver (155), oral cavity (275) and pharynx (267), and injury by fall on the stairs (187). PMRs for HIV/AIDS were particularly high in tailors and dressmakers (918, 95%CI 369-1890, in men; 804, 95%CI 219-2060, in women) and male hairdressers (918, 95%CI 717-1160). Most jobs with high mortality from HIV/AIDS also had more deaths than expected from viral hepatitis. Of seven jobs with significantly high PMRs for both drug dependence and accidental poisoning by drugs, four were in the construction industry (male painters and decorators, bricklayers and masons, plasterers, and roofers and glaziers). Conclusions Our findings highlight major differences between occupations in mortality from diseases and injuries caused by alcohol, sexual habits and drug abuse. Priorities for preventive action include alcohol-related disorders in male seafarers and drug abuse in construction workers. PMID:20407041

Occupation and mortality related to alcohol, drugs and sexual habits.

Science.gov (United States)

Coggon, D; Harris, E C; Brown, T; Rice, S; Palmer, K T

2010-08-01

To identify opportunities for targeted prevention, we explored differences in occupational mortality from diseases and injuries related to alcohol consumption, sexual habits and drug abuse. Using data on all deaths among men and women aged 16-74 years in England and Wales during 1991-2000, we derived age- and social class-standardized proportional mortality ratios (PMRs) by occupation for cause of death categories defined a priori as potentially related to alcohol consumption, sexual habits or drug abuse. The highest mortality from alcohol-related diseases and injuries was observed in publicans and bar staff (both sexes) and in male caterers, cooks and kitchen porters and seafarers. Male seafarers had significantly elevated PMRs for cirrhosis (179), 'other alcohol-related diseases' (275), cancers of the liver (155), oral cavity (275) and pharynx (267) and injury by fall on the stairs (187). PMRs for human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) were particularly high in tailors and dressmakers (918, 95% CI: 369-1890, in men; 804, 95% CI: 219-2060, in women) and male hairdressers (918, 95% CI: 717-1160). Most jobs with high mortality from HIV/AIDS also had more deaths than expected from viral hepatitis. Of seven jobs with significantly high PMRs for both drug dependence and accidental poisoning by drugs, four were in the construction industry (male painters and decorators, bricklayers and masons, plasterers, and roofers and glaziers). Our findings highlight major differences between occupations in mortality from diseases and injuries caused by alcohol, sexual habits and drug abuse. Priorities for preventive action include alcohol-related disorders in male seafarers and drug abuse in construction workers.

Abortion-Related Mortality in the United States 1998–2010

Science.gov (United States)

Zane, Suzanne; Creanga, Andreea A.; Berg, Cynthia J.; Pazol, Karen; Suchdev, Danielle B.; Jamieson, Denise J.; Callaghan, William M.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To examine characteristics and causes of legal induced abortion–related deaths in the United States between 1998 and 2010. METHODS Abortion-related deaths were identified through the national Pregnancy Mortality Surveillance System with enhanced case-finding. We calculated the abortion mortality rate by race, maternal age, and gestational age and the distribution of causes of death by gestational age and procedure. RESULTS During the period from 1998–2010, of approximately 16.1 million abortion procedures, 108 women died, for a mortality rate of 0.7 deaths per 100,000 procedures overall, 0.4 deaths for non-Hispanic white women, 0.5 deaths for Hispanic women, and 1.1 deaths for black women. The mortality rate increased with gestational age, from 0.3 to 6.7 deaths for procedures performed at 8 weeks or less and at 18 weeks or greater, respectively. A majority of abortion-related deaths at 13 weeks of gestation or less were associated with anesthesia complications and infection, whereas a majority of abortion-related deaths at more than 13 weeks of gestation were associated with infection and hemorrhage. In 20 of the 108 cases, the abortion was performed as a result of a severe medical condition where continuation of the pregnancy threatened the woman’s life. CONCLUSION Deaths associated with legal induced abortion continue to be rare events—less than 1 per 100,000 procedures. Primary prevention of unintended pregnancy, including those in women with serious pre-existing medical conditions, and increased access to abortion services at early gestational ages may help to further decrease abortion-related mortality in the United States. PMID:26241413

Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Briggs, David; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Hyatt, Olivia

2016-01-01

Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.

Impact of AIDS on premature mortality in Amsterdam, 1982-1992

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bindels, P. J.; Reijneveld, S. A.; Mulder-Folkerts, D. K.; Coutinho, R. A.; van den Hoek, A. A.

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of AIDS on premature mortality in the city of Amsterdam (1982-1992). METHODS: We combined aggregated data from the Netherlands Central Bureau for Statistics with data from the municipal death and population registry and data from the Amsterdam AIDS surveillance system

Impact of Next Generation District Heating Systems on Distribution Network Heat Losses: A Case Study Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yu; Rezgui, Yacine

2018-01-01

District heating (DH) is a promising energy pathway to alleviate environmental negative impacts induced by fossil fuels. Improving the performance of DH systems is one of the major challenges facing its wide adoption. This paper discusses the heat losses of the next generation DH based on the constructed Simulink model. Results show that lower distribution temperature and advanced insulation technology greatly reduce network heat losses. Also, the network heat loss can be further minimized by a reduction of heat demand in buildings.

Impact of the Grameen Bank on childhood mortality in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, M; Davanzo, J; Sutradhar, S C

1996-01-01

The Grameen Bank (GB) is a highly innovative and well-supervised credit program for the rural poor in Bangladesh. About 95% of over 2 million participants are women. GB can positively affect child survival among its participants through its income-generation and consciousness-raising activities. The study examines if GB influences childhood mortality among its participants. An integrated family life survey was carried out during 1993-94 among about 2500 married women in landless households who are eligible for membership in GB. The survey was carried out among randomly selected married women regardless of GB membership in 3 thanas of Tangail district and 1 thana of Mymensingh district. The study permits an analysis in a "before-after" and "treatment-comparison" framework for measuring the impact of GB on childhood mortality. Estimation was done through proportional hazards models, where the effects of confounding factors like calendar year, maternal age, parity, maternal education, economic conditions, and areal variation were controlled for. There was a 34% and significant reduction in childhood (under-5) mortality after the mothers joined the GB. Similar effects of other NGOs on childhood mortality were also observed. Childhood mortality was similar between the GB members before joining the Bank and never-members, indicating that the GB members were not from a selective group. Childhood mortality was 21% and significantly lower among women who worked for income generation than those women who did not work. Income generation and social development programs modeled after the GB and other NGOs can reduce childhood mortality in Bangladesh and similar settings.

Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

2011-07-01

As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally and individually from eight world regions and three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8 %) and avoids 157 000 (95 % confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. Most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving emissions in East Asia (China; 54 %), followed by South Asia (India; 31 %), however South Asian emissions have 50 % greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, halving residential, industrial, and transportation emissions contributes 47 %, 35 %, and 15 % to the avoided deaths from halving all anthropogenic BC emissions. These contributions are 1.2, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's portion of global BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population globally. We find that reducing BC emissions increases regional SO4 concentrations by up to 28 % of the magnitude of the regional BC concentration reductions, due to reduced absorption of radiation that drives photochemistry. Impacts of residential BC emissions are likely underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ∼8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting

The Impact of Heat Waves on Occurrence and Severity of Construction Accidents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rameez Rameezdeen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of heat stress on human health has been extensively studied. Similarly, researchers have investigated the impact of heat stress on workers’ health and safety. However, very little work has been done on the impact of heat stress on occupational accidents and their severity, particularly in South Australian construction. Construction workers are at high risk of injury due to heat stress as they often work outdoors, undertake hard manual work, and are often project based and sub-contracted. Little is known on how heat waves could impact on construction accidents and their severity. In order to provide more evidence for the currently limited number of empirical investigations on the impact of heat stress on accidents, this study analysed 29,438 compensation claims reported during 2002–2013 within the construction industry of South Australia. Claims reported during 29 heat waves in Adelaide were compared with control periods to elicit differences in the number of accidents reported and their severity. The results revealed that worker characteristics, type of work, work environment, and agency of accident mainly govern the severity. It is recommended that the implementation of adequate preventative measures in small-sized companies and civil engineering sites, targeting mainly old age workers could be a priority for Work, Health and Safety (WHS policies.

The risks of premature mortality related to atmospheric pollution. Comparison with those related to tobacco and those related to radioactivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durand, Bernard

2014-01-01

Whereas atmospheric pollution is now recognized as one of the most important cause of mortality in the world, this report first notices that these pollutants have mainly an anthropogenic origin. In a first part, the author presents the main harmful atmospheric pollutants, and briefly discusses their origin and their impact on health: carbon monoxide, sulphur oxides, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, persistent organic pollutants, volatile organic compounds, ozone, tars, soot or particles, heavy metals. In a second part, the author discusses the assessment of hazards related to atmospheric pollution, and more particularly the assessment of premature morbidity due to different pollutants according to different organisations and programs. He also discusses health impacts on a short and on a long term, notably in terms of exposure in big cities. In a third part, based on measurements of emissions of primary pollutant, notably primary particles, the author tries to identify the most dangerous sources of atmospheric pollutions

Public Health-Related Impacts of Climate Change inCalifornia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drechsler, D.M.; Motallebi, N.; Kleeman, M.; Cayan, D.; Hayhoe,K.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Miller, N.L.; Jin, J.; VanCuren, R.A.

2005-12-01

In June 2005 Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S-3-05 that set greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for California, and directed the Secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency to report to the governor and the State legislature by January 2006 and biannually thereafter on the impacts to California of global warming, including impacts to water supply, public health, agriculture, the coastline, and forestry, and to prepare and report on mitigation and adaptation plans to combat these impacts. This report is a part of the report to the governor and legislature, and focuses on public health impacts that have been associated with climate change. Considerable evidence suggests that average ambient temperature is increasing worldwide, that temperatures will continue to increase into the future, and that global warming will result in changes to many aspects of climate, including temperature, humidity, and precipitation (McMichael and Githeko, 2001). It is expected that California will experience changes in both temperature and precipitation under current trends. Many of the changes in climate projected for California could have ramifications for public health (McMichael and Githeko, 2001), and this document summarizes the impacts judged most likely to occur in California, based on a review of available peer-reviewed scientific literature and new modeling and statistical analyses. The impacts identified as most significant to public health in California include mortality and morbidity related to temperature, air pollution, vector and water-borne diseases, and wildfires. There is considerable complexity underlying the health of a population with many contributing factors including biological, ecological, social, political, and geographical. In addition, the relationship between climate change and changes in public health is difficult to predict for the most part, although more detailed information is available on temperature-related

The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city, Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Herbel, Ioana; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Rus, Adina Viorica; Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Rus, Ionuţ

2017-07-01

The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day

The impact of dyslipidaemia on cardiovascular mortality in individuals without a prior history of diabetes in the DECODE Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, L.; Qiao, Q.; Tuomilehto, J.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of dyslipidaemia on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in relation to fasting (FPG) and 2-h (2hPG) plasma glucose levels in individuals without a prior history of diabetes. METHODS: Data from 14 European population-based prospective studies of 9132 men and 8631...

Bark beetle-induced tree mortality alters stand energy budgets due to water budget changes

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Reed, David E.; Ewers, Brent E.; Pendall, Elise; Frank, John; Kelly, Robert

2018-01-01

Insect outbreaks are major disturbances that affect a land area similar to that of forest fires across North America. The recent mountain pine bark beetle ( D endroctonus ponderosae) outbreak and its associated blue stain fungi ( Grosmannia clavigera) are impacting water partitioning processes of forests in the Rocky Mountain region as the spatially heterogeneous disturbance spreads across the landscape. Water cycling may dramatically change due to increasing spatial heterogeneity from uneven mortality. Water and energy storage within trees and soils may also decrease, due to hydraulic failure and mortality caused by blue stain fungi followed by shifts in the water budget. This forest disturbance was unique in comparison to fire or timber harvesting because water fluxes were altered before significant structural change occurred to the canopy. We investigated the impacts of bark beetles on lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta) stand and ecosystem level hydrologic processes and the resulting vertical and horizontal spatial variability in energy storage. Bark beetle-impacted stands had on average 57 % higher soil moisture, 1.5 °C higher soil temperature, and 0.8 °C higher tree bole temperature over four growing seasons compared to unimpacted stands. Seasonal latent heat flux was highly correlated with soil moisture. Thus, high mortality levels led to an increase in ecosystem level Bowen ratio as sensible heat fluxes increased yearly and latent heat fluxes varied with soil moisture levels. Decline in canopy biomass (leaf, stem, and branch) was not seen, but ground-to-atmosphere longwave radiation flux increased, as the ground surface was a larger component of the longwave radiation. Variability in soil, latent, and sensible heat flux and radiation measurements increased during the disturbance. Accounting for stand level variability in water and energy fluxes will provide a method to quantify potential drivers of ecosystem processes and services as well as lead to greater

Poor CD4 response despite viral suppression is associated with increased non-AIDS related mortality among HIV patients and their parents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helleberg, Marie; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S

2012-01-01

association between poor CD4 response and increased risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer (IRR 1.6 (95%CI 0.8-3.2) and 1.6 (95%CI 0.6-4.8)). CONCLUSIONS:: poor CD4 increase after HAART is associated with adverse prognosis even in absence of severe immunosuppression. CD4 response in HIV patients......INTRODUCTION:: poor CD4 response to antiretroviral treatment (HAART) is associated with increased mortality. We analyzed the impact of CD4 increase on non-AIDS related morbidity and on mortality in HIV patients and their parents. METHODS:: mortality rates were estimated among 1,758 virally...... is associated with mortality among their parents, thus poor CD4 response may be caused by genetic factors, which might also affect morbidity and mortality in the HIV negative population....

The association between temperature and mortality in tropical middle income Thailand from 1999 to 2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Dear, Keith; Kjellstrom, Tord; Sleigh, Adrian

2014-03-01

We have investigated the association between tropical weather condition and age-sex adjusted death rates (ADR) in Thailand over a 10-year period from 1999 to 2008. Population, mortality, weather and air pollution data were obtained from four national databases. Alternating multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) regression and stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis were used to sequentially build models of the associations between temperature variable and deaths, adjusted for the effects and interactions of age, sex, weather (6 variables), and air pollution (10 variables). The associations are explored and compared among three seasons (cold, hot and wet months) and four weather zones of Thailand (the North, Northeast, Central, and South regions). We found statistically significant associations between temperature and mortality in Thailand. The maximum temperature is the most important variable in predicting mortality. Overall, the association is nonlinear U-shape and 31 °C is the minimum-mortality temperature in Thailand. The death rates increase when maximum temperature increase with the highest rates in the North and Central during hot months. The final equation used in this study allowed estimation of the impact of a 4 °C increase in temperature as projected for Thailand by 2100; this analysis revealed that the heat-related deaths will increase more than the cold-related deaths avoided in the hot and wet months, and overall the net increase in expected mortality by region ranges from 5 to 13 % unless preventive measures were adopted. Overall, these results are useful for health impact assessment for the present situation and future public health implication of global climate change for tropical Thailand.

Trends in hip fracture-related mortality in Texas, 1990-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Orces, Carlos H; Alamgir, Abul H

2011-07-01

There are limited data about trends in hip fracture-related mortality. In this study, we examined temporal trends in hip fracture mortality rates among persons aged 50 years or older in Texas between 1990 and 2007. Hip fracture-related mortality was defined as a death on the multiple cause of death record for which hip fracture was listed as a contributing cause. Population estimates for Texas were used as the denominator to calculate mortality rates per 100,000 persons. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify points where a statistically significant change occurred in the linear slope of the rates. A total of 14,350 death certificates listed hip fracture as a contributing cause of death. Hip fracture rates decreased predominantly among men by 0.8% (95% CI, -1.5 to -0.1) per year. Conversely, age-adjusted rates among women increased by 0.3% (95% CI, -0.4 to 1.0) per year. By race/ethnicity, hip fracture mortality rates increased annually 2.2% (95% CI, -0.1 to 4.4) among blacks, whereas the rates among whites and Hispanics remained steady. Moreover, the proportion of death records that listed nursing homes and residence as a place of death increased by 2.2% (95% CI, 1.6 to 2.9) and 8.7% (95% CI, 6.3 to 11.0) per year, respectively. Hip fracture mortality rates decreased predominantly among men in Texas during the study period. Increasing hip fracture mortality rates among blacks and nursing home residents merit further research.

Testing the time-scale dependence of delayed interactions: A heat wave during the egg stage shapes how a pesticide interacts with a successive heat wave in the larval stage.

Science.gov (United States)