global temperature: Topics by WorldWideScience.org

Sample records for global temperature

Global temperature evolution 1979–2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foster, Grant; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2011-01-01

We analyze five prominent time series of global temperature (over land and ocean) for their common time interval since 1979: three surface temperature records (from NASA/GISS, NOAA/NCDC and HadCRU) and two lower-troposphere (LT) temperature records based on satellite microwave sensors (from RSS and UAH). All five series show consistent global warming trends ranging from 0.014 to 0.018 K yr −1 . When the data are adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term temperature variations (El Niño/southern oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability), the global warming signal becomes even more evident as noise is reduced. Lower-troposphere temperature responds more strongly to El Niño/southern oscillation and to volcanic forcing than surface temperature data. The adjusted data show warming at very similar rates to the unadjusted data, with smaller probable errors, and the warming rate is steady over the whole time interval. In all adjusted series, the two hottest years are 2009 and 2010.
Global temperature stability by rule induction: An interdisciplinary bridge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunn, J.D.; Grzymala-Busse, J.W.

1994-01-01

Rules incorporating influences on global temperature, an estimate of radiation balance, were induced from astronomical, geophysical, and anthropogenic variables. During periods of intermediate global temperatures (generally like the present century), the influences assume canceling roles; influences cancel the effects of extreme states potentially imposed by other influences because they are, in aggregate, most likely to be assuming opposite values. This imparts an overall stability to the global temperature. To achieve cold or hot global temperature, influences assume reinforcing roles. CO 2 is an active influence on global temperature. By virtue of its constancy in the atmosphere, it can be expected to sponsor frequent hot years in combination with the other influences as they cycle through their periods. If measures were implemented to maintain warm or cool global temperatures, it could retain the status quo of present global agricultural regions. They are probably more productive than hot world regions would be because of narrow storm tracks
Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

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Aubrecht, Gordon

2009-04-01

Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.
International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 3 Monthly

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Land Surface Temperature Databank contains monthly timescale mean, maximum, and minimum temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was...
International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Daily

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...
International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Monthly

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...
International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Monthly

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...
International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Daily

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...
Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

Science.gov (United States)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.;

2015-01-01

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32? degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

NOAA Global Surface Temperature (NOAAGlobalTemp)

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) is a merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (formerly known as MLOST) (link is external). It is...
Evidence that global evapotranspiration makes a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature slowdown

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Leggett, L. Mark W.; Ball, David A.

2018-02-01

The difference between the time series trend for temperature expected from the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 and that for the (more slowly rising) observed temperature has been termed the global surface temperature slowdown. In this paper, we characterise the single time series made from the subtraction of these two time series as the `global surface temperature gap'. We also develop an analogous atmospheric CO2 gap series from the difference between the level of CO2 and first-difference CO2 (that is, the change in CO2 from one period to the next). This paper provides three further pieces of evidence concerning the global surface temperature slowdown. First, we find that the present size of both the global surface temperature gap and the CO2 gap is unprecedented over a period starting at least as far back as the 1860s. Second, ARDL and Granger causality analyses involving the global surface temperature gap against the major candidate physical drivers of the ocean heat sink and biosphere evapotranspiration are conducted. In each case where ocean heat data was available, it was significant in the models: however, evapotranspiration, or its argued surrogate precipitation, also remained significant in the models alongside ocean heat. In terms of relative scale, the standardised regression coefficient for evapotranspiration was repeatedly of the same order of magnitude as—typically as much as half that for—ocean heat. The foregoing is evidence that, alongside the ocean heat sink, evapotranspiration is also likely to be making a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature outcome. Third, there is evidence that both the ocean heat sink and the evapotranspiration process might be able to continue into the future to keep the temperature lower than the level-of-CO2 models would suggest. It is shown that this means there can be benefit in using the first-difference CO2 to temperature relationship shown in Leggett and Ball (Atmos Chem Phys 15
Maximum weight of greenhouse effect to global temperature variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Xian; Jiang, Chuangye

2007-01-01

Full text: The global average temperature has risen by 0.74 0 C since the late 19th century. Many studies have concluded that the observed warming in the last 50 years may be attributed to increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. But some scientists have a different point of view. Global climate change is affected not only by anthropogenic activities, but also constraints in climate system natural factors. How much is the influencing weight of C02's greenhouse effects to the global temperature variation? Does global climate continue warming or decreasing in the next 20 years? They are two hot spots in global climate change. The multi-timescales analysis method - Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to diagnose global annual mean air temperature dataset for land surface provided by IPCC and atmospheric content of C02 provided by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) during 1881-2002. The results show that: Global temperature variation contains quasi-periodic oscillations on four timescales (3 yr, 6 yr, 20 yr and 60 yr, respectively) and a century-scale warming trend. The variance contribution of IMF1-IMF4 and trend is 17.55%, 11.34%, 6.77%, 24.15% and 40.19%, respectively. The trend and quasi-60 yr oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent; C02's greenhouse effect on global temperature variation is mainly century-scale trend. The contribution of C02 concentration to global temperature variability is not more than 40.19%, whereas 59.81% contribution to global temperature variation is non-greenhouse effect. Therefore, it is necessary to re-study the dominant factors that induce the global climate change; It has been noticed that on the periods of 20 yr and 60 yr oscillation, the global temperature is beginning to decreased in the next 20 years. If the present C02 concentration is maintained, the greenhouse effect will be too small to countercheck the natural variation in global climate cooling in the next 20
Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

2007-05-22

In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.
The phase lag of temperature behind global solar radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Hussainy, F.M.

1995-08-01

This paper presented the relationship between the air temperature and the global solar radiation, which can be conveniently represented by the three characteristics: mean, amplitude and phase lag of the first harmonic of global radiation and air temperatures. A good correlation between the air temperature and the global solar radiation has been found when the phase lag between them is nearly of 30 days. (author). 4 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab
Satellite Global and Hemispheric Lower Tropospheric Temperature Annual Temperature Cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael A. Brunke

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Previous analyses of the Earth’s annual cycle and its trends have utilized surface temperature data sets. Here we introduce a new analysis of the global and hemispheric annual cycle using a satellite remote sensing derived data set during the period 1979–2009, as determined from the lower tropospheric (LT channel of the MSU satellite. While the surface annual cycle is tied directly to the heating and cooling of the land areas, the tropospheric annual cycle involves additionally the gain or loss of heat between the surface and atmosphere. The peak in the global tropospheric temperature in the 30 year period occurs on 10 July and the minimum on 9 February in response to the larger land mass in the Northern Hemisphere. The actual dates of the hemispheric maxima and minima are a complex function of many variables which can change from year to year thereby altering these dates.Here we examine the time of occurrence of the global and hemispheric maxima and minima lower tropospheric temperatures, the values of the annual maxima and minima, and the slopes and significance of the changes in these metrics. The statistically significant trends are all relatively small. The values of the global annual maximum and minimum showed a small, but significant trend. Northern and Southern Hemisphere maxima and minima show a slight trend toward occurring later in the year. Most recent analyses of trends in the global annual cycle using observed surface data have indicated a trend toward earlier maxima and minima.
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

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Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-12

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

Science.gov (United States)

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-01

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.
On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series

Science.gov (United States)

KäRner, O.

2002-10-01

Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.
A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

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van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2012-09-01

Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for
New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.
Recent Development on the NOAA's Global Surface Temperature Dataset

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Zhang, H. M.; Huang, B.; Boyer, T.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Menne, M. J.; Rennie, J.

2016-12-01

Global Surface Temperature (GST) is one of the most widely used indicators for climate trend and extreme analyses. A widely used GST dataset is the NOAA merged land-ocean surface temperature dataset known as NOAAGlobalTemp (formerly MLOST). The NOAAGlobalTemp had recently been updated from version 3.5.4 to version 4. The update includes a significant improvement in the ocean surface component (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature or ERSST, from version 3b to version 4) which resulted in an increased temperature trends in recent decades. Since then, advancements in both the ocean component (ERSST) and land component (GHCN-Monthly) have been made, including the inclusion of Argo float SSTs and expanded EOT modes in ERSST, and the use of ISTI databank in GHCN-Monthly. In this presentation, we describe the impact of those improvements on the merged global temperature dataset, in terms of global trends and other aspects.
Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) Data, 1985-present

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) develops and maintains a global ocean temperature and salinity resource with data that are both up-to-date...
Analysed foundation sea surface temperature, global

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The through-cloud capabilities of microwave radiometers provide a valuable picture of global sea surface temperature (SST). To utilize this, scientists at Remote...
NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset, Version 4.0

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) is derived from two independent analyses: the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST)...
Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

2015-01-01

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...
Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

2015-01-01

The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)
Global predictability of temperature extremes

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Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

2018-05-01

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.
The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility.

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Fisch, Harry; Andrews, Howard F; Fisch, Karen S; Golden, Robert; Liberson, Gary; Olsson, Carl A

2003-07-01

According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth's surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994.A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (phuman fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures.
Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

Science.gov (United States)

Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

2015-04-01

The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them
Global rainbow refractometry for droplet temperature measurement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pascal Lemaitre; Emmanuel Porcheron; Amandine Nuboer; Philippe Brun; Pierre Cornet; Jeanne Malet; Jacques Vendel; Laurent Bouilloux [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire DSU/SERAC, BP 68, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Gerard Grehan [UMR 6614 CORIA, Laboratoire d' Electromagnetisme et Systemes Particulaires Site Universitaire du Madrillet, Avenue de l' universite BP 12, 76 801 Saint Etienne du Rouvray Cedex, (France)

2005-07-01

Full text of publication follows: In order to establish an accurate database to characterize the heat and mass transfers between a spray and the atmosphere with thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident in the containment enclosure of a pressurized water reactor (PWR), the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) has developed the TOSQAN experimental facility. This experiment is highly instrumented with non-intrusive diagnostics allowing to measure droplet size and velocity and gas concentrations [1]. The aim of this work is to present the Global Rainbow Thermometry (GRT), which is an advanced non-intrusive optical diagnostic, developed to measure the mean temperature of a set of falling droplets, in a measurement volume of 1 cm{sup 3}. The final paper will be divided in three parts. In the first one, we will explain the principle of the rainbow formation and how droplet temperature can be deduced from the rainbow analysis [2]. This part will be illustrated with the theoretical background on the rainbow and numerical simulations of the global rainbow. The second part will be devoted to present the global rainbow experimental set-up we have developed on optical table, its experimental qualification and finally its implementation on the TOSQAN facility [3]. Finally, we will present the temperature measurements achieved in TOSQAN for thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident. These measurements are useful to characterize the heat and mass transfers between the spraying droplets and the air-steam mixture composing the atmosphere. This analysis will be exposed in a two companion papers. References: [1] E. Porcheron, P. Brun, P. Cornet, J. Malet, J. Vendel. Optical diagnostics applied for single and multi-phase flow characterization in the TOSQAN facility dedicated for thermal hydraulic containment studies. NURETH-10 Seoul, Korea, October 5-9, 2003. [2] P
Global rainbow refractometry for droplet temperature measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pascal Lemaitre; Emmanuel Porcheron; Amandine Nuboer; Philippe Brun; Pierre Cornet; Jeanne Malet; Jacques Vendel; Laurent Bouilloux; Gerard Grehan

2005-01-01

Full text of publication follows: In order to establish an accurate database to characterize the heat and mass transfers between a spray and the atmosphere with thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident in the containment enclosure of a pressurized water reactor (PWR), the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) has developed the TOSQAN experimental facility. This experiment is highly instrumented with non-intrusive diagnostics allowing to measure droplet size and velocity and gas concentrations [1]. The aim of this work is to present the Global Rainbow Thermometry (GRT), which is an advanced non-intrusive optical diagnostic, developed to measure the mean temperature of a set of falling droplets, in a measurement volume of 1 cm 3 . The final paper will be divided in three parts. In the first one, we will explain the principle of the rainbow formation and how droplet temperature can be deduced from the rainbow analysis [2]. This part will be illustrated with the theoretical background on the rainbow and numerical simulations of the global rainbow. The second part will be devoted to present the global rainbow experimental set-up we have developed on optical table, its experimental qualification and finally its implementation on the TOSQAN facility [3]. Finally, we will present the temperature measurements achieved in TOSQAN for thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident. These measurements are useful to characterize the heat and mass transfers between the spraying droplets and the air-steam mixture composing the atmosphere. This analysis will be exposed in a two companion papers. References: [1] E. Porcheron, P. Brun, P. Cornet, J. Malet, J. Vendel. Optical diagnostics applied for single and multi-phase flow characterization in the TOSQAN facility dedicated for thermal hydraulic containment studies. NURETH-10 Seoul, Korea, October 5-9, 2003. [2] P
Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph

2016-01-01

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produ......-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.......The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce...... similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries...
High Predictive Skill of Global Surface Temperature a Year Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

Folland, C. K.; Colman, A.; Kennedy, J. J.; Knight, J.; Parker, D. E.; Stott, P.; Smith, D. M.; Boucher, O.

2011-12-01

We discuss the high skill of real-time forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead issued by the UK Met Office, and their scientific background. Although this is a forecasting and not a formal attribution study, we show that the main instrumental global annual surface temperature data sets since 1891 are structured consistently with a set of five physical forcing factors except during and just after the second World War. Reconstructions use a multiple application of cross validated linear regression to minimise artificial skill allowing time-varying uncertainties in the contribution of each forcing factor to global temperature to be assessed. Mean cross validated reconstructions for the data sets have total correlations in the range 0.93-0.95,interannual correlations in the range 0.72-0.75 and root mean squared errors near 0.06oC, consistent with observational uncertainties.Three transient runs of the HadCM3 coupled model for 1888-2002 demonstrate quite similar reconstruction skill from similar forcing factors defined appropriately for the model, showing that skilful use of our technique is not confined to observations. The observed reconstructions show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) likely contributed to the re-commencement of global warming between 1976 and 2010 and to global cooling observed immediately beforehand in 1965-1976. The slowing of global warming in the last decade is likely to be largely due to a phase-delayed response to the downturn in the solar cycle since 2001-2, with no net ENSO contribution. The much reduced trend in 2001-10 is similar in size to other weak decadal temperature trends observed since global warming resumed in the 1970s. The causes of variations in decadal trends can be mostly explained by variations in the strength of the forcing factors. Eleven real-time forecasts of global mean surface temperature for the year ahead for 2000-2010, based on broadly similar methods, provide an independent test of the
Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Romilly, Peter

2005-07-01

Climate change has important implications for business and economic activity. Effective management of climate change impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. This paper uses univariate time series techniques to model the properties of a global mean temperature dataset in order to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. Although the model is estimated on global temperature data, the methodology could also be applied to temperature data at more localised levels. The statistical techniques include seasonal and non-seasonal unit root testing with and without structural breaks, as well as ARIMA and GARCH modelling. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that global mean temperatures increased significantly throughout the 20th century. The use of GARCH modelling also shows the presence of volatility clustering in the temperature data, and a positive association between volatility and global mean temperature.
Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.;

2016-01-01

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

2016-12-01

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Millar, Richard J.

2018-05-01

The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).
Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ishtiaq Hassan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.
Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Crabbe, M James C

2008-10-01

Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.
The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

2017-12-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we have developed an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. This includes developing new "Big Data" analysis methods as the data volumes involved are considerable. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.
The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arkin, Phillip A; Janowiak, John; Smith, Thomas M; Sapiano, Mathew R P

2010-01-01

Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.
Continental distribution as a forcing factor for global-scale temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barron, E J; Thompson, S L; Hay, W W

1984-08-16

Since the advent of the continental drift hypothesis, changing continental geometries have been proposed as an explanation for long-term temperature variability. The climatic influence of a few specific past geographies has been investigated quantitatively, but these studies do not indicate the potential temperature variability due to continental positions. This problem has been examined only with simple climate models having limiting assumptions such as no cloud cover. Here idealized continental geometries are used as boundary conditions in a simulation using a general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere. The range in model simulated globally-averaged surface temperature is 7.4 K with a difference in polar surface temperature of up to 34 K. The simulations suggest a substantial climatic sensitivity to continental positions with the coldest global climate when land masses are in high latitudes. Although the simulations have not captured theoretical limits of climatic variability due to continental positions, present-day geography is near the cold end of this spectrum. 20 references, 1 figure.
Evaluation of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) air temperature data products

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Lei; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.

2015-01-01

There is a high demand for agrohydrologic models to use gridded near-surface air temperature data as the model input for estimating regional and global water budgets and cycles. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) developed by combining simulation models with observations provides a long-term gridded meteorological dataset at the global scale. However, the GLDAS air temperature products have not been comprehensively evaluated, although the accuracy of the products was assessed in limited areas. In this study, the daily 0.25° resolution GLDAS air temperature data are compared with two reference datasets: 1) 1-km-resolution gridded Daymet data (2002 and 2010) for the conterminous United States and 2) global meteorological observations (2000–11) archived from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The comparison of the GLDAS datasets with the GHCN datasets, including 13 511 weather stations, indicates a fairly high accuracy of the GLDAS data for daily temperature. The quality of the GLDAS air temperature data, however, is not always consistent in different regions of the world; for example, some areas in Africa and South America show relatively low accuracy. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal a high agreement between GLDAS and Daymet daily air temperature datasets, although spatial details in high mountainous areas are not sufficiently estimated by the GLDAS data. The evaluation of the GLDAS data demonstrates that the air temperature estimates are generally accurate, but caution should be taken when the data are used in mountainous areas or places with sparse weather stations.
A simple model for variations in global mean temperature: implications for decadal variability, the global warming hiatus, and recent temperature rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, S.; Fedorov, A. V.

2017-12-01

Global mean surface temperature (GMST) has steadily risen since the mid-19th century, and at the same time experienced significant variations on interannual and decadal timescales. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain such variations, ranging from the Pacific decadal oscillation to volcanic eruptions. In this study, we construct a simple, physically-based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols. The model closely reproduces the history of GMST changes since 1880 with the mean squared error about 0.05°C for the past 60 years, smaller than the typical error of GMST observations (see the figure attached). It also accurately captures decadal GMST variations, including the global warming hiatus in the early 21stcentury. This model can be used to understand the causes of the observed GMST variations and requires little computational resource. Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity was the major cause of the recent global warming hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise since 2014 is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Niño conditions in addition to the continuing background global warming trend. The model can be also used to make predictions for next-year GMST in the short term, and future climate projections in the long term. We will also discuss the implications of this simple model for paleoclimate reconstructions and GCM performance evaluations.
Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

2017-12-01

Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.
Satellite-based detection of global urban heat-island temperature influence

Science.gov (United States)

Gallo, K.P.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Owen, T.W.; Elvidge, C.D.

2002-01-01

This study utilizes a satellite-based methodology to assess the urban heat-island influence during warm season months for over 4400 stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network of climate stations. The methodology includes local and regional satellite retrievals of an indicator of the presence green photosynthetically active vegetation at and around the stations. The difference in local and regional samples of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to estimate differences in mean air temperature. Stations classified as urban averaged 0.90??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.92??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment on the basis of the NDVI-derived temperature estimates. Additionally, stations classified as rural averaged 0.19??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.16??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment. The NDVI-derived temperature estimates were found to be in reasonable agreement with temperature differences observed between climate stations. The results suggest that satellite-derived data sets can be used to estimate the urban heat-island temperature influence on a global basis and that a more detailed analysis of rural stations and their surrounding environment may be necessary to assure that temperature trends derived from assumed rural environments are not influenced by changes in land use/land cover. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.
Global warming: Temperature estimation in annealers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jack Raymond

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Sampling from a Boltzmann distribution is NP-hard and so requires heuristic approaches. Quantum annealing is one promising candidate. The failure of annealing dynamics to equilibrate on practical time scales is a well understood limitation, but does not always prevent a heuristically useful distribution from being generated. In this paper we evaluate several methods for determining a useful operational temperature range for annealers. We show that, even where distributions deviate from the Boltzmann distribution due to ergodicity breaking, these estimates can be useful. We introduce the concepts of local and global temperatures that are captured by different estimation methods. We argue that for practical application it often makes sense to analyze annealers that are subject to post-processing in order to isolate the macroscopic distribution deviations that are a practical barrier to their application.
Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon
Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie
Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. B. B. Booth

2013-04-01

Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high
Global 1-km Sea Surface Temperature (G1SST)

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — JPL OurOcean Portal: A daily, global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set is produced at 1-km (also known as ultra-high resolution) by the JPL ROMS (Regional Ocean...
Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

2018-01-01

Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Exploring the possibilities of the advection of temperature to diagnose the influence of changes in the atmospheric circulation on global temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vidal, O.; Gimeno, L.; Ribera, P. [Vigo Univ., Orense (Spain). Dept. of Applied Physics; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Gallego, D. [Complutense Univ., Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Atmospheric Physics

2001-07-01

The advection of temperature (AT) at three different pressure levels was calculated for the period of 1958 to 1998 to test the hypothesis that the origin global temperature increase during the past decade was caused by changes in global circulation. The relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature has been widely studied. They have a common oscillation in the bands of 2 and 4 years. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may also account for regional surface warming over Europe and Asia and for cooling over the northwestern Atlantic. Important correlations were found between most of the Northern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Arctic Oscillation and between most of the Southern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Antarctic Oscillation. Poor correlations were found with El Nino-Southern Oscillation even for belts between 0 and 30 degrees and for the lower troposphere. 8 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.
The Sun is the climate pacemaker II. Global ocean temperatures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Douglass, David H., E-mail: douglass@pas.rochester.edu; Knox, Robert S.

2015-04-17

In part I, equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature index SST3.4 was found to have segments during 1990–2014 showing a phase-locked annual signal and phase-locked signals of 2- or 3-year periods. Phase locking is to an inferred solar forcing of 1.0 cycle/yr. Here the study extends to the global ocean, from surface to 700 and 2000 m. The same phase-locking phenomena are found. The El Niño/La Niña effect diffuses into the world oceans with a delay of about two months. - Highlights: • Global ocean temperatures at depths 0–700 m and 0–2000 m from 1990 to 2014 are studied. • The same phase-locked phenomena reported in Paper I are observed. • El Niño/La Niña effects diffuse to the global oceans with a two month delay. • Ocean heat content trends during phase-locked time segments are consistent with zero.
Analysis of Global Urban Temperature Trends and Urbanization Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, K. I.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S. W.

2018-04-01

Due to urbanization, urban areas are shrinking green spaces and increasing concrete, asphalt pavement. So urban climates are different from non-urban areas. In addition, long-term macroscopic studies of urban climate change are becoming more important as global urbanization affects global warming. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the effect of urbanization on the temporal change in urban temperature with the same temperature data and standards for urban areas around the world. In this study, time series analysis was performed with the maximum, minimum, mean and standard values of surface temperature during the from 1980 to 2010 and analyzed the effect of urbanization through linear regression analysis with variables (population, night light, NDVI, urban area). As a result, the minimum value of the surface temperature of the urban area reflects an increase by a rate of 0.28K decade-1 over the past 31 years, the maximum value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.372K decade-1, the mean value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.208 decade-1, and the standard deviation reflects a decrease by rate of 0.023K decade-1. And the change of surface temperature in urban areas is affected by urbanization related to land cover such as decrease of greenery and increase of pavement area, but socioeconomic variables are less influential than NDVI in this study. This study are expected to provide an approach to future research and policy-planning for urban temperature change and urbanization impacts.
ATSR sea surface temperature data in a global analysis with TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Thomas

1996-01-01

Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) data from the ERS 1 satellite mission are used in a global analysis of the surface temperature of the oceans. The data are the low resolution 0.5 degrees by 0.5 degrees average temperatures and cover about 24 months. At global scales a significant seasonal...... variability is found. On each of the hemispheres the surface temperatures reach their maximum after summer heating. The seasonal sea level variability, as observed from TOPEX/POSEIDON, reaches its maximum 1.1-1.4 months later....
GLOBAL CHANGES IN THE SEA ICE COVER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. C. Comiso

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The trends in the sea ice cover in the two hemispheres have been observed to be asymmetric with the rate of change in the Arctic being negative at −3.8 % per decade while that of the Antarctic is positive at 1.7 % per decade. These observations are confirmed in this study through analyses of a more robust data set that has been enhanced for better consistency and updated for improved statistics. With reports of anthropogenic global warming such phenomenon appears physically counter intuitive but trend studies of surface temperature over the same time period show the occurrence of a similar asymmetry. Satellite surface temperature data show that while global warming is strong and dominant in the Arctic, it is relatively minor in the Antarctic with the trends in sea ice covered areas and surrounding ice free regions observed to be even negative. A strong correlation of ice extent with surface temperature is observed, especially during the growth season, and the observed trends in the sea ice cover are coherent with the trends in surface temperature. The trend of global averages of the ice cover is negative but modest and is consistent and compatible with the positive but modest trend in global surface temperature. A continuation of the trend would mean the disappearance of summer ice by the end of the century but modelling projections indicate that the summer ice could be salvaged if anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are kept constant at the current level.

Correlation Dimension Estimates of Global and Local Temperature Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qiang

1995-11-01

The author has attempted to detect the presence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in temperature data by estimating the correlation dimension with the Hill estimate that has been recently developed by Mikosch and Wang. There is no convincing evidence of low dimensionality with either global dataset (Southern Hemisphere monthly average temperatures from 1858 to 1984) or local temperature dataset (daily minimums at Auckland, New Zealand). Any apparent reduction in the dimension estimates appears to be due large1y, if not entirely, to effects of statistical bias, but neither is it a purely random stochastic process. The dimension of the climatic attractor may be significantly larger than 10.
Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for
Global versus local mechanisms of temperature sensing in ion channels.

Science.gov (United States)

Arrigoni, Cristina; Minor, Daniel L

2018-05-01

Ion channels turn diverse types of inputs, ranging from neurotransmitters to physical forces, into electrical signals. Channel responses to ligands generally rely on binding to discrete sensor domains that are coupled to the portion of the channel responsible for ion permeation. By contrast, sensing physical cues such as voltage, pressure, and temperature arises from more varied mechanisms. Voltage is commonly sensed by a local, domain-based strategy, whereas the predominant paradigm for pressure sensing employs a global response in channel structure to membrane tension changes. Temperature sensing has been the most challenging response to understand and whether discrete sensor domains exist for pressure and temperature has been the subject of much investigation and debate. Recent exciting advances have uncovered discrete sensor modules for pressure and temperature in force-sensitive and thermal-sensitive ion channels, respectively. In particular, characterization of bacterial voltage-gated sodium channel (BacNa V ) thermal responses has identified a coiled-coil thermosensor that controls channel function through a temperature-dependent unfolding event. This coiled-coil thermosensor blueprint recurs in other temperature sensitive ion channels and thermosensitive proteins. Together with the identification of ion channel pressure sensing domains, these examples demonstrate that "local" domain-based solutions for sensing force and temperature exist and highlight the diversity of both global and local strategies that channels use to sense physical inputs. The modular nature of these newly discovered physical signal sensors provides opportunities to engineer novel pressure-sensitive and thermosensitive proteins and raises new questions about how such modular sensors may have evolved and empowered ion channel pores with new sensibilities.
Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent global temperature variability: an information theoretic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Bhaskar, Ankush; Ramesh, Durbha Sai; Vichare, Geeta; Koganti, Triven; Gurubaran, S.

2017-12-01

Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent global temperature variability remains a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4 and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance ( TSI) and cosmic ray flux ( CR); El Niño Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly ( GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding signals of global temperature variability. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO2 ({˜ } 24 %), CH4 ({˜ } 19 %) and volcanic aerosols ({˜ }23 %) are the primary contributors to the observed variations in GMTA. While, UV ({˜ } 9 %) and ENSO ({˜ } 12 %) act as secondary drivers of variations in the GMTA, the remaining play a marginal role in the observed recent global temperature variability. Interestingly, ENSO and GMTA mutually drive each other at varied time lags. This study assists future modelling efforts in climate science.
A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Science.gov (United States)

Emile-Geay, Julian; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, T.; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Bjorklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, M.; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Koc, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, K.M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, X.; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Thapa, Udya Kuwar; Thomas, E.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, A.E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene; White, James W. C.; Yu, Z.; Zinke, Jens

2017-01-01

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...
Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

2017-12-01

Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.
Temperature differences within the detector of the Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, compared to global radiation

Science.gov (United States)

Kjeldstad, Berit; Grandum, Oddbjorn

1993-11-01

The Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, has no temperature compensation, and the effect of temperature on the instrument response has been investigated and discussed in several reports. It is recommended to control the temperature of the detector or at least measure it. The temperature sensor is recommended to be positioned within the detector unit. We have measured the temperature at three different positions in the detector: At the edge of the green filter where the phosphor layer is placed; at the glass tube covering the cathode; and, finally, the air temperature inside the instrument. These measurements have been performed outdoors since July 1991, with corresponding measurements of the global and direct solar radiation. There was no difference between the temperature of the glasstube covering the cathode and the air inside the instrument, at any radiation level. However, there was a difference between the green filter and the two others. The difference is linearly dependent on the amount of global radiation. The temperature difference, (Delta) T (temperature between the green filter and the air inside the sensor), increased 0.8 degree(s)C when the global irradiation increased by 100 W/m2. At maximum global radiation in Trondheim (latitude 63.4 degree(s)N) (Delta) T was approximately 5 - 6 K when the global radiation was about 700 W/m2. This was valid for temperatures between 7 degree(s)C and 30 degree(s)C. Only clear days were evaluated.
Global Distributions of Temperature Variances At Different Stratospheric Altitudes From Gps/met Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gavrilov, N. M.; Karpova, N. V.; Jacobi, Ch.

The GPS/MET measurements at altitudes 5 - 35 km are used to obtain global distribu- tions of small-scale temperature variances at different stratospheric altitudes. Individ- ual temperature profiles are smoothed using second order polynomial approximations in 5 - 7 km thick layers centered at 10, 20 and 30 km. Temperature inclinations from the averaged values and their variances obtained for each profile are averaged for each month of year during the GPS/MET experiment. Global distributions of temperature variances have inhomogeneous structure. Locations and latitude distributions of the maxima and minima of the variances depend on altitudes and season. One of the rea- sons for the small-scale temperature perturbations in the stratosphere could be internal gravity waves (IGWs). Some assumptions are made about peculiarities of IGW gener- ation and propagation in the tropo-stratosphere based on the results of GPS/MET data analysis.
The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

2017-05-01

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty
Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Supit, Iwan; Wolf, Joost

2016-01-01

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects,
On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

2016-01-01

We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086
Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

OpenAIRE

Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

2012-01-01

This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...
Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

2009-12-01

Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The
Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

2018-01-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.
Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

2018-01-17

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.
Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

2012-01-01

Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...
Global Land Surface Temperature From the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

Science.gov (United States)

Ghent, D. J.; Corlett, G. K.; Göttsche, F.-M.; Remedios, J. J.

2017-11-01

The Leicester Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) Processor for LAnd Surface Temperature (LASPLAST) provides global land surface temperature (LST) products from thermal infrared radiance data. In this paper, the state-of-the-art version of LASPLAST, as deployed in the GlobTemperature project, is described and applied to data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR). The LASPLAST retrieval formulation for LST is a nadir-only, two-channel, split-window algorithm, based on biome classification, fractional vegetation, and across-track water vapor dependences. It incorporates globally robust retrieval coefficients derived using highly sampled atmosphere profiles. LASPLAST benefits from appropriate spatial resolution auxiliary information and a new probabilistic-based cloud flagging algorithm. For the first time for a satellite-derived LST product, pixel-level uncertainties characterized in terms of random, locally correlated, and systematic components are provided. The new GlobTemperature GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product has been validated for 1 year of AATSR data (2009) against in situ measurements acquired from "gold standard reference" stations: Gobabeb, Namibia, and Evora, Portugal; seven Surface Radiation Budget stations, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement station at Southern Great Plains. These data show average absolute biases for the GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product of 1.00 K in the daytime and 1.08 K in the nighttime. The improvements in data provenance including better accuracy, fully traceable retrieval coefficients, quantified uncertainty, and more detailed information in the new harmonized format of the GT_ATS_2P product will allow for more significant exploitation of the historical LST data record from the ATSRs and a valuable near-real-time service from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometers (SLSTRs).
Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

Science.gov (United States)

Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.
GHRSST Level 4 MW_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS version 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at Remote Sensing...
The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, Olivier; Collins, Bill; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Shine, Keith P

2009-01-01

Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO 2 -induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO 2 -induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.
Global embedding of D-dimensional black holes with a cosmological constant in Minkowskian spacetimes: Matching between Hawking temperature and Unruh temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, Nuno Loureiro; Dias, Oscar J.C.; Lemos, Jose P.S.

2004-01-01

We study the matching between the Hawking temperature of a large class of static D-dimensional black holes and the Unruh temperature of the corresponding higher dimensional Rindler spacetime. In order to accomplish this task we find the global embedding of the D-dimensional black holes into a higher dimensional Minkowskian spacetime, called the global embedding Minkowskian spacetime procedure (GEMS procedure). These global embedding transformations are important on their own, since they provide a powerful tool that simplifies the study of black hole physics by working instead, but equivalently, in an accelerated Rindler frame in a flat background geometry. We discuss neutral and charged Tangherlini black holes with and without cosmological constant, and in the negative cosmological constant case, we consider the three allowed topologies for the horizons (spherical, cylindrical/toroidal, and hyperbolic)
Evidence on a link between the intensity of Schumann resonance and global surface temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Sekiguchi

2006-08-01

Full Text Available A correlation is investigated between the intensity of the global electromagnetic oscillations (Schumann resonance with the planetary surface temperature. The electromagnetic signal was monitored at Moshiri (Japan, and temperature data were taken from surface meteorological observations. The series covers the period from November 1998 to May 2002. The Schumann resonance intensity is found to vary coherently with the global ground temperature in the latitude interval from 45° S to 45° N: the relevant cross-correlation coefficient reaches the value of 0.9. It slightly increases when the high-latitude temperature is incorporated. Correspondence among the data decreases when we reduce the latitude interval, which indicates the important role of the middle-latitude lightning in the Schumann resonance oscillations. We apply the principal component (or singular spectral analysis to the electromagnetic and temperature records to extract annual, semiannual, and interannual variations. The principal component analysis (PCA clarifies the links between electromagnetic records and meteorological data.
Can climate models be tuned to simulate the global mean absolute temperature correctly?

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Q.; Shi, Y.; Gong, W.

2016-12-01

The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already issued five assessment reports (ARs), which include the simulation of the past climate and the projection of the future climate under various scenarios. The participating models can simulate reasonably well the trend in global mean temperature change, especially of the last 150 years. However, there is a large, constant discrepancy in terms of global mean absolute temperature simulations over this period. This discrepancy remained in the same range between IPCC-AR4 and IPCC-AR5, which amounts to about 3oC between the coldest model and the warmest model. This discrepancy has great implications to the land processes, particularly the processes related to the cryosphere, and casts doubts over if land-atmosphere-ocean interactions are correctly considered in those models. This presentation aims to explore if this discrepancy can be reduced through model tuning. We present an automatic model calibration strategy to tune the parameters of a climate model so the simulated global mean absolute temperature would match the observed data over the last 150 years. An intermediate complexity model known as LOVECLIM is used in the study. This presentation will show the preliminary results.
Spatio-temporal interpolation of daily temperatures for global land areas at 1 km resolution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kilibarda, M.; Hengl, T.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Graler, B.; Pebesma, E.; Tadic, M.P.; Bajat, B.

2014-01-01

Combined Global Surface Summary of Day and European Climate Assessment and Dataset daily meteorological data sets (around 9000 stations) were used to build spatio-temporal geostatistical models and predict daily air temperature at ground resolution of 1km for the global land mass. Predictions in
Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation using soft computing methodologies

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Danesh, Amir Seyed; Abdullah, Mohd Shahidan; Zamani, Mazdak

2016-07-01

Precise knowledge of solar radiation is indeed essential in different technological and scientific applications of solar energy. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation would be appealing owing to broad availability of measured air temperatures. In this study, the potentials of soft computing techniques are evaluated to estimate daily horizontal global solar radiation (DHGSR) from measured maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures ( T max, T min, and T avg) in an Iranian city. For this purpose, a comparative evaluation between three methodologies of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function support vector regression (SVR-rbf), and polynomial basis function support vector regression (SVR-poly) is performed. Five combinations of T max, T min, and T avg are served as inputs to develop ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models. The attained results show that all ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models provide favorable accuracy. Based upon all techniques, the higher accuracies are achieved by models (5) using T max- T min and T max as inputs. According to the statistical results, SVR-rbf outperforms SVR-poly and ANFIS. For SVR-rbf (5), the mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient are 1.1931 MJ/m2, 2.0716 MJ/m2, and 0.9380, respectively. The survey results approve that SVR-rbf can be used efficiently to estimate DHGSR from air temperatures.
Quantifying the temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on global-mean precipitation in a multi-model ensemble

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferraro, Angus J; Griffiths, Hannah G

2016-01-01

The reduction in global-mean precipitation when stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is used to counterbalance global warming from increasing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations has been mainly attributed to the temperature-independent effect of CO 2 on atmospheric radiative cooling. We demonstrate here that stratospheric sulphate aerosol itself also acts to reduce global-mean precipitation independent of its effects on temperature. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoenginering on global-mean precipitation is calculated by removing temperature-dependent effects from climate model simulations of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). When sulphate aerosol is injected into the stratosphere at a rate of 5 Tg SO 2 per year the aerosol reduces global-mean precipitation by approximately 0.2 %, though multiple ensemble members are required to separate this effect from internal variability. For comparison, the precipitation reduction from the temperature-independent effect of increasing CO 2 concentrations under the RCP4.5 scenario of the future is approximately 0.5 %. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric sulphate aerosol arises from the aerosol’s effect on tropospheric radiative cooling. Radiative transfer calculations show this is mainly due to increasing downward emission of infrared radiation by the aerosol, but there is also a contribution from the stratospheric warming the aerosol causes. Our results suggest climate model simulations of solar dimming can capture the main features of the global-mean precipitation response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. (letter)
Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris" : An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

2018-01-01

In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to "hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these
Synoptic monthly gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) water temperature and salinity from January 1990 to December 2009 (NCEI Accession 0138647)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The synoptic gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (SG-GTSPP) provides world ocean 3D gridded temperature and salinity data in monthly increment...
Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...
Global scaling analysis for the pebble bed advanced high temperature reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blandford, E.D.; Peterson, P.F.

2009-01-01

Scaled Integral Effects Test (IET) facilities play a critical role in the design certification process of innovative reactor designs. Best-estimate system analysis codes, which minimize deliberate conservatism, require confirmatory data during the validation process to ensure an acceptable level of accuracy as defined by the regulator. The modular Pebble Bed Advanced High Temperature Reactor (PB-AHTR), with a nominal power output of 900 MWth, is the most recent UC Berkeley design for a liquid fluoride salt cooled, solid fuel reactor. The PB-AHTR takes advantage of technologies developed for gas-cooled high temperature thermal and fast reactors, sodium fast reactors, and molten salt reactors. In this paper, non-dimensional scaling groups and similarity criteria are presented at the global system level for a loss of forced circulation transient, where single-phase natural circulation is the primary mechanism for decay heat removal following a primary pump trip. Due to very large margin to fuel damage temperatures, the peak metal temperature of primary-loop components was identified as the key safety parameter of interest. Fractional Scaling Analysis (FSA) methods were used to quantify the intensity of each transfer process during the transient and subsequently rank them by their relative importance while identifying key sources of distortion between the prototype and model. The results show that the development of a scaling hierarchy at the global system level informs the bottom-up scaling analysis. (author)
GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_AMSR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...
Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khanh Dung T Nguyen

Full Text Available Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.
Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.
Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

Science.gov (United States)

Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

1997-01-01

An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer. PMID:11607740
An updated global grid point surface air temperature anomaly data set: 1851--1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sepanski, R.J.; Boden, T.A.; Daniels, R.C.

1991-10-01

This document presents land-based monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1951--1970 reference period mean) on a 5{degree} latitude by 10{degree} longitude global grid. Monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1957--1975 reference period mean) for the Antarctic (grid points from 65{degree}S to 85{degree}S) are presented in a similar way as a separate data set. The data were derived primarily from the World Weather Records and the archives of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. This long-term record of temperature anomalies may be used in studies addressing possible greenhouse-gas-induced climate changes. To date, the data have been employed in generating regional, hemispheric, and global time series for determining whether recent (i.e., post-1900) warming trends have taken place. This document also presents the monthly mean temperature records for the individual stations that were used to generate the set of gridded anomalies. The periods of record vary by station. Northern Hemisphere station data have been corrected for inhomogeneities, while Southern Hemisphere data are presented in uncorrected form. 14 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.
A mathematical correlation between variations in solar radiation parameters. 2. Global radiation, air temperature and specific humidity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1988-06-01

We derive from first principles, an equation which expresses global radiation as a function of specific humidity and air temperature at screen height. The practical validity of this equation is tested by using humidity, air temperature and global radiation data from Tanzania. It is shown that global radiation values calculated on the basis of the derived equation agree with measured radiation values to within ± 8% as long as the prevalent (horizontal) winds are either calm or light. It is noted that the equation is equally valid at times of strong horizontal winds provided that the temperature and humidity measuring site is sufficiently shielded from the winds. This implies that meteorological stations that are (for some unavoidable reasons) unable to stock pyranometers can still procure reasonable estimates of local global radiation as long as they can, at least, stock the relatively cheaper barometers and wet- and dry-bulb psychrometers. (author). 12 refs, 1 fig., 4 tabs
Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jueterbock, Alexander; Franssen, S. U.; Bergmann, N.; Gu, J.; Coyer, J. A.; Reusch, T. B. H.; Bornberg-Bauer, E.; Olsen, J. L.

2016-01-01

Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina,

Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

2010-05-04

The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.
Changes in geomagnetic activity and global temperature during the past 40 years

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bucha, Václav

2012-01-01

Roč. 56, č. 4 (2012), s. 1095-1107 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : geomagnetic activity * polar vortex * climate indices * global temperature Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 0.975, year: 2012
The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2011-02-15

Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)
The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.
A stable boundary layer perspective on global temperature trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNider, R T; Christy, J R; Biazar, A

2010-01-01

temperatures in the stable boundary layer are not very robust measures of the heat content in the deep atmosphere and climate models do not predict minimum temperatures well, minimum temperatures should not be used as a surrogate for measures of deep atmosphere global warming.
Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, van Geert Jan

2018-01-01

The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role
Quality-controlled sea surface temperature, salinity and other measurements from the NCEI Global Thermosalinographs Database (NCEI-TSG)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains global in-situ sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SSS) and other measurements from the NOAA NCEI Global Thermosalinographs Database...
Van ‘t Hoff global analyses of variable temperature isothermal titration calorimetry data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freiburger, Lee A.; Auclair, Karine; Mittermaier, Anthony K.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ▶ We developed a global fitting strategy for ITC data collected at multiple temperatures. ▶ This method does not require prior knowledge of the binding mechanism. ▶ Monte Carlo simulations show that the approach improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters. ▶ The method is used to study coupled folding/binding in aminoglycoside 6′-N-acetyltransferase-Ii. - Abstract: Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) can provide detailed information on the thermodynamics of biomolecular interactions in the form of equilibrium constants, K A , and enthalpy changes, ΔH A . A powerful application of this technique involves analyzing the temperature dependences of ITC-derived K A and ΔH A values to gain insight into thermodynamic linkage between binding and additional equilibria, such as protein folding. We recently developed a general method for global analysis of variable temperature ITC data that significantly improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters and requires no prior knowledge of the coupled equilibria. Here we report detailed validation of this method using Monte Carlo simulations and an application to study coupled folding and binding in an aminoglycoside acetyltransferase enzyme.
Global Validation of MODIS Atmospheric Profile-Derived Near-Surface Air Temperature and Dew Point Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Famiglietti, C.; Fisher, J.; Halverson, G. H.

2017-12-01

This study validates a method of remote sensing near-surface meteorology that vertically interpolates MODIS atmospheric profiles to surface pressure level. The extraction of air temperature and dew point observations at a two-meter reference height from 2001 to 2014 yields global moderate- to fine-resolution near-surface temperature distributions that are compared to geographically and temporally corresponding measurements from 114 ground meteorological stations distributed worldwide. This analysis is the first robust, large-scale validation of the MODIS-derived near-surface air temperature and dew point estimates, both of which serve as key inputs in models of energy, water, and carbon exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Results show strong linear correlations between remotely sensed and in-situ near-surface air temperature measurements (R2 = 0.89), as well as between dew point observations (R2 = 0.77). Performance is relatively uniform across climate zones. The extension of mean climate-wise percent errors to the entire remote sensing dataset allows for the determination of MODIS air temperature and dew point uncertainties on a global scale.
Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

Science.gov (United States)

Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2009-01-01

Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.
An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.
Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Moving to Google Cloud: Renovation of Global Borehole Temperature Database for Climate Research

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Y.; Huang, S.

2013-12-01

Borehole temperature comprises an independent archive of information on climate change which is complementary to the instrumental and other proxy climate records. With support from the international geothermal community, a global database of borehole temperatures has been constructed for the specific purpose of the study on climate change. Although this database has become an important data source in climate research, there are certain limitations partially because the framework of the existing borehole temperature database was hand-coded some twenty years ago. A database renovation work is now underway to take the advantages of the contemporary online database technologies. The major intended improvements include 1) dynamically linking a borehole site to Google Earth to allow for inspection of site specific geographical information; 2) dynamically linking an original key reference of a given borehole site to Google Scholar to allow for a complete list of related publications; and 3) enabling site selection and data download based on country, coordinate range, and contributor. There appears to be a good match between the enhancement requirements for this database and the functionalities of the newly released Google Fusion Tables application. Google Fusion Tables is a cloud-based service for data management, integration, and visualization. This experimental application can consolidate related online resources such as Google Earth, Google Scholar, and Google Drive for sharing and enriching an online database. It is user friendly, allowing users to apply filters and to further explore the internet for additional information regarding the selected data. The users also have ways to map, to chart, and to calculate on the selected data, and to download just the subset needed. The figure below is a snapshot of the database currently under Google Fusion Tables renovation. We invite contribution and feedback from the geothermal and climate research community to make the
The global historical climatology network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, and pressure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vose, R.S.; Schmoyer, R.L.; Peterson, T.C.; Steurer, P.M.; Heim, R.R. Jr.; Karl, T.R.; Eischeid, J.K.

1992-01-01

Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0)
A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wenhui; Li, Qingxiang; Jones, Phil; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Trewin, Blair; Yang, Su; Zhu, Chen; Zhai, Panmao; Wang, Jinfeng; Vincent, Lucie; Dai, Aiguo; Gao, Yun; Ding, Yihui

2018-04-01

A new dataset of integrated and homogenized monthly surface air temperature over global land for the period since 1900 [China Meteorological Administration global Land Surface Air Temperature (CMA-LSAT)] is developed. In total, 14 sources have been collected and integrated into the newly developed dataset, including three global (CRUTEM4, GHCN, and BEST), three regional and eight national sources. Duplicate stations are identified, and those with the higher priority are chosen or spliced. Then, a consistency test and a climate outlier test are conducted to ensure that each station series is quality controlled. Next, two steps are adopted to assure the homogeneity of the station series: (1) homogenized station series in existing national datasets (by National Meteorological Services) are directly integrated into the dataset without any changes (50% of all stations), and (2) the inhomogeneities are detected and adjusted for in the remaining data series using a penalized maximal t test (50% of all stations). Based on the dataset, we re-assess the temperature changes in global and regional areas compared with GHCN-V3 and CRUTEM4, as well as the temperature changes during the three periods of 1900-2014, 1979-2014 and 1998-2014. The best estimates of warming trends and there 95% confidence ranges for 1900-2014 are approximately 0.102 ± 0.006 °C/decade for the whole year, and 0.104 ± 0.009, 0.112 ± 0.007, 0.090 ± 0.006, and 0.092 ± 0.007 °C/decade for the DJF (December, January, February), MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, respectively. MAM saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2014 and 1979-2014. For an even shorter and more recent period (1998-2014), MAM, JJA and SON show similar warming trends, while DJF shows opposite trends. The results show that the ability of CMA-LAST for describing the global temperature changes is similar with other existing products, while there are some differences when describing regional temperature changes.
Global equatorial sea-surface temperatures over the last 150,000 years: An update from foraminiferal elemental analysis

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Saraswat, R.

for the warmest waters. However, how the equatorial SST affects global climate, is still not clear. Long-term past seawater temperature records are required to understand the effect of temporal changes in equatorial SST on the global climate. Various techniques...
Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios for BC : meeting the twin objectives of temperature stabilization and global equity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, C.R.

2008-08-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategies are needed in order to prevent rises in global temperatures. This report presented 6 GHG emission scenarios conducted to understand the kind of contribution that the province of British Columbia (BC) might make towards reducing global warming in the future. Short, medium, and longer term GHG reduction targets were benchmarked. The University of Victoria earth system climate model was used to calculate emission pathways where global average temperature did not exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial values, and where atmospheric GHGs were stabilized at 400 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Global carbon emission budgets of the total amount of GHG emissions permissible between now and 2100 were identified. A carbon emission budget for 2008 to 2100 was then developed based on the population of BC. Average annual emission reduction rates for the world and for BC were also identified. It was concluded that dramatically reduced emissions will be insufficient to achieve an equilibrium temperature less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Global reductions of greater than 80 per cent are needed to prevent unacceptable levels of ocean acidification. Results suggested that carbon sequestration technologies may need to be used to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere by artificial means. 38 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs
On the influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varonov, Albert; Shopov, Yavor

2014-01-01

Using statistical analysis, correlation between the variations of the total solar irradiance and of the annual-mean land temperatures was found. An unknown time lag between both data sets was expected to be present due to the complexity of the Earth’s climate system leading to a delayed response to changes in influencing factors. We found the best correlation with coefficient over 90% for a 14-year shift of the annual mean land temperature record ahead with data until 1970, while the same comparison with data until 2006 yields 61% correlation. These results show substantially higher influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperatures until 1970. The decline of this influence during the last 40 years could be attributed to the increasing concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Key words: total solar irradiance, solar variations, solar forcing, climate change
GHRSST Level 4 MW_IR_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS versions 1 and 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.81 degree grid at Remote Sensing...
A diagnostic study of temperature controls on global terrestrial carbon exchange

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vukicevic, Tomislava; Schimel, David

2001-01-01

The observed interannual variability of atmospheric CO 2 reflects short-term variability in sources and sinks of CO 2 . Analyses using 13 C and O 2 suggest that much of the observed interannual variability is due to changes in terrestrial CO 2 exchange. First principles, empirical correlations and process models suggest a link between climate variation and net ecosystem exchange, but the scaling of ecological process studies to the globe is notoriously difficult. We sought to identify a component of global CO 2 exchange that varied coherently with land temperature anomalies using an inverse modeling approach. We developed a family of simplified spatially aggregated ecosystem models (designated K-model versions) consisting of five compartments: atmospheric CO 2 , live vegetation, litter, and two soil pools that differ in turnover times. The pools represent cumulative differences from mean storage due to temperature variability and can thus have positive or negative values. Uptake and respiration of CO 2 are assumed to be linearly dependent on temperature. One model version includes a simple representation of the nitrogen cycle in which changes in the litter and soil carbon pools result in stoichiometric release of plant-available nitrogen, the other omits the nitrogen feedback. The model parameters were estimated by inversion of the model against global temperature and CO 2 anomaly data using the variational method. We found that the temperature sensitivity of carbon uptake (NPP) was less than that of respiration in all model versions. Analyses of model and data also showed that temperature anomalies trigger ecosystem changes on multiple, lagged time-scales. Other recent studies have suggested a more active land biosphere at Northern latitudes in response to warming and longer growing seasons. Our results indicate that warming should increase NPP, consistent with this theory, but that respiration should increase more than NPP, leading to decreased or negative NEP. A

Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

2014-05-01

Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region
Does a General Temperature-Dependent Q10 Model of Soil Respiration Exist at Biome and Global Scale?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Hua CHEN; Han-Qin TIAN

2005-01-01

Soil respiration (SR) is commonly modeled by a Q10 (an indicator of temperature sensitivity)function in ecosystem models. Q10is usually treated as a constant of 2 in these models, although Q10 value of SR often decreases with increasing temperatures. It remains unclear whether a general temperaturedependent Q10 model of SR exists at biome and global scale. In this paper, we have compiled the long-term Q10 data of 38 SR studies ranging from the Boreal, Temperate, to Tropical/Subtropical biome on four continents.Our analysis indicated that the general temperature-dependent biome Q10 models of SR existed, especially in the Boreal and Temperate biomes. A single-exponential model was better than a simple linear model in fitting the average Q10 values at the biome scale. Average soil temperature is a better predictor of Q10 value than average air temperature in these models, especially in the Boreal biome. Soil temperature alone could explain about 50% of the Q10 variations in both the Boreal and Temperate biome single-exponential Q10 model. Q10 value of SR decreased with increasing soil temperature but at quite different rates among the three biome Q10 models. The k values (Q10 decay rate constants) were 0.09, 0.07, and 0.02/℃ in the Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical/Subtropical biome, respectively, suggesting that Q10 value is the most sensitive to soil temperature change in the Boreal biome, the second in the Temperate biome, and the least sensitive in the Tropical/Subtropical biome. This also indirectly confirms that acclimation of SR in many soil warming experiments probably occurs. The k value in the "global" single-exponential Q10 model which combined both the Boreal and Temperate biome data set was 0.08/℃. However, the global general temperature-dependent Q10model developed using the data sets of the three biomes is not adequate for predicting Q10 values of SR globally.The existence of the general temperature-dependent Q10 models of SR in the Boreal and
AATSR: global-change and surface-temperature measurements from Envisat

Science.gov (United States)

Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Edwards, M. C.; Mutlow, C. T.; Birks, A. R.; Barton, I. J.; Tait, H.

2001-02-01

The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) onboard ESA's Envisat spacecraft is designed to meet the challenging task of monitoring and detecting climate change. It builds on the success of its predecessor instruments on the ERS-1 and ERS-2 satellites, and will lead to a 15+ year record of precise and accurate global Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) measurements, thereby making a valuable contribution to the long-term climate record. With its high-accuracy, high-quality imagery and channels in the visible, near-infrared and thermal wavelengths, AATSR data will support many applications in addition to oceanographic and climate research, including a wide range of land-surface, cryosphere and atmospheric studies.
Past surface temperature changes as derived from continental temperature logs - Canadian and some global examples of application of a new tool in climate change studies

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Skinner, W.

2004-01-01

Roč. 47, - (2004), s. 113-174 ISSN 0065-2687 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK3046108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : well temperature * global warming * surface temperature Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.667, year: 2004
AVHRR Pathfinder version 5.3 level 3 collated (L3C) global 4km sea surface temperature

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.3 (PFV53) L3C Sea Surface Temperature data set is a collection of global, twice-daily (Day and Night) 4km sea surface temperature...
The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 5 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1982-2012 (NCEI Accession 0126774)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Version 5 of the Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a global, 4 km, sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics dataset for...
Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Stephen E.

2018-04-01

Unrealized increase in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) may result from the climate system not being in steady state with forcings and/or from cessation of negative aerosol forcing that would result from decreases in emissions. An observation-constrained method is applied to infer the dependence of Earth's climate sensitivity on forcing by anthropogenic aerosols within the uncertainty on that forcing given by the Fifth (2013) Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09-0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12-0.26 K over 100 years). However, the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large but is highly uncertain, 0.1-1.3 K over 20 years. Decrease in CO2 abundance and forcing following abrupt cessation of emissions would offset these increases in GMST over 100 years by as little as 0.09 K to as much as 0.8 K. The uncertainties quantified here greatly limit confidence in projections of change in GMST that would result from any strategy for future reduction of emissions.
Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

Science.gov (United States)

Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

2016-12-01

Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.
NODC Standard Product: Global ocean temperature and salinity profiles (2 disc set) (NODC Accession 0098058)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This set of CD-ROMs contains global ocean temperature and salinity profiles derived from NODC archive data files. It includes oceanographic station (bottle) data,...
The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Jackson Davis

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica—the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO—that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4% in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP, and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely. Identified ACOs summate with millennial periodicity to form the Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIMs known to precede Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores. Homologous ACOs recorded at the four EAP drill sites during the last glacial maximum appeared first at lower elevations nearest the ocean and centuries later on the high EAP, with latencies that exceed dating uncertainty >30-fold. ACO homologs at different drill sites became synchronous, however, during the warmer Holocene. Comparative spectral analysis suggests that the millennial-scale AIM cycle declined in period from 1500 to 800 years over the last 70 millennia. Similarly, over the last 226 millennia ACO repetition period (mean 352 years declined by half while amplitude (mean 0.67 °C approximately doubled. The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature
Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

2017-05-01

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

2013-01-01

Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a
Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

Science.gov (United States)

Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

2017-06-01

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the
Stochastic identification of temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam: assessment of multi-model and global model approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hios, J D; Fassois, S D

2009-01-01

The temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam are experimentally studied via conventional multi-model and novel global model identification approaches. The multi-model approaches are based on non-parametric and parametric VARX representations, whereas the global model approaches are based on novel constant coefficient pooled (CCP) and functionally pooled (FP) VARX parametric representations. The analysis indicates that the obtained multi-model and global model representations are in rough overall agreement. Nevertheless, the latter simultaneously use all available data records offering more compact descriptions of the dynamics, improved numerical robustness and estimation accuracy, which is reflected in significantly reduced modal parameter uncertainties. Although the CCP-VARX representations provide only 'averaged' descriptions of the structural dynamics over temperature, their FP-VARX counterparts allow for the explicit, analytical modeling of temperature dependence exhibiting a 'smooth' deterministic dependence of the dynamics on temperature which is compatible with the physics of the problem. In accordance with previous studies, the obtained natural frequencies decrease with temperature in a weakly nonlinear or approximately linear fashion. The damping factors are less affected, although their dependence on temperature may be of a potentially more complex nature
Effect of Temperature Rising on the Stygobitic Crustacean Species Diacyclops belgicus: Does Global Warming Affect Groundwater Populations?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiziana Di Lorenzo

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The average global temperature is predicted to increase by 3 °C by the end of this century due to human-induced climate change. The overall metabolism of the aquatic biota will be directly affected by rising temperatures and associated changes. Since thermal stability is a characteristic of groundwater ecosystems, global warming is expected to have a profound effect on the groundwater fauna. The prediction that stygobitic (obligate groundwater dweller species are vulnerable to climate change includes assumptions about metabolic effects that can only be tested by comparisons across a thermal gradient. To this end, we investigated the effects of two different thermal regimes on the metabolism of the stygobitic copepod species Diacyclops belgicus (Kiefer, 1936. We measured the individual-based oxygen consumption of this species as a proxy of possible metabolic reactions to temperature rising from 14 to 17 °C. We used a sealed glass microplate equipped with planar oxygen sensor spots with optical isolation glued onto the bottom of 80-μL wells integrated with a 24-channel fluorescence-based respirometry system. The tests have provided controversial results according to which the D. belgicus populations should be prudently considered at risk under a global warming scenario.
Synchronous drought and flooding in southern Chinese Loess Plateau in phase with the variation of global temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, X.; Kang, Z.

2017-12-01

Drought and flooding, usually occurring in the catchment scale, are the main natural threats to human livelihood due to the extreme variation of precipitation in spatiotemporal scales. Within the context of global warming, the risk of flood and drought tends to increase in different regions. Understanding the mechanism of the regional occurrence of flood and drought is of enormous importance for the predicting studies and taking corresponding measures. However, the instrumental records are too short to conduct a prediction. Here, we present a historical-archive-based high-resolution dataset of drought and flooding back to AD 1646 in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau. This sequence, integrated with the modern meteorological observation data, shows that the frequency of drought and flooding in the study region is synchronous on a decadal scale, and they are in phase with the increase in both global and regional temperature. During the warm period, the ENSO activity was found to be increase, resulting in the anomaly distribution of precipitation in different seasons in southern Chinese Loess Plateau, which is the reason for the temperature dependence of flooding and drought in this region. If global temperature continues to rise in the future, the risk of both drought and flooding in the study area would also increase.
MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MOD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...
MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MYD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...
MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MYD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...
MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MOD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MOD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...
MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MYD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...
Does the correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures rule out any significant global warming from greenhouse gases?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

1998-01-01

Since the discovery of a striking correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse...... gases. The present analysis shows that a similar degree of correlation is obtained when testing the solar data against a couple of fictitious temperature series representing different global warming trends. Therefore, the correlation cannot be used to estimate the magnitude of a possible contribution...... to global warming from human activities, nor to rule out a sizable contribution from that source....
Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

Science.gov (United States)

Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-01-01

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659
Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

Science.gov (United States)

Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

2018-04-01

Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.
EOF analysis of COSMIC observations on the global zonal mean temperature structure of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere from 2007 to 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Salinas, Cornelius Csar Jude H.; Chang, Loren C.

2018-06-01

This work presents the results of a Conventional Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis on daily global zonal mean temperature profiles in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (15-35 km), as measured by the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission from January 2007 to June 2013. For validation, results were compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Results show that, the leading global EOF mode (27%) from COSMIC is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the tropical cooling associated with boreal winter Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW). The second global EOF mode from COSMIC (15.3%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). The third global mode from COSMIC (10.9%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This work also shows that the second northern hemisphere EOF mode from COSMIC (16.8%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due Rossby-wave breaking (RWB) which is expected to only be resolved by a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC. Our work concludes that the use of a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC yields non-seasonal EOF modes that are consistent with relatively more intricate temperature anomalies due to the SSW, QBO, ENSO and RWB.
Temperature drives global patterns in forest biomass distribution in leaves, stems, and roots.

Science.gov (United States)

Reich, Peter B; Luo, Yunjian; Bradford, John B; Poorter, Hendrik; Perry, Charles H; Oleksyn, Jacek

2014-09-23

Whether the fraction of total forest biomass distributed in roots, stems, or leaves varies systematically across geographic gradients remains unknown despite its importance for understanding forest ecology and modeling global carbon cycles. It has been hypothesized that plants should maintain proportionally more biomass in the organ that acquires the most limiting resource. Accordingly, we hypothesize greater biomass distribution in roots and less in stems and foliage in increasingly arid climates and in colder environments at high latitudes. Such a strategy would increase uptake of soil water in dry conditions and of soil nutrients in cold soils, where they are at low supply and are less mobile. We use a large global biomass dataset (>6,200 forests from 61 countries, across a 40 °C gradient in mean annual temperature) to address these questions. Climate metrics involving temperature were better predictors of biomass partitioning than those involving moisture availability, because, surprisingly, fractional distribution of biomass to roots or foliage was unrelated to aridity. In contrast, in increasingly cold climates, the proportion of total forest biomass in roots was greater and in foliage was smaller for both angiosperm and gymnosperm forests. These findings support hypotheses about adaptive strategies of forest trees to temperature and provide biogeographically explicit relationships to improve ecosystem and earth system models. They also will allow, for the first time to our knowledge, representations of root carbon pools that consider biogeographic differences, which are useful for quantifying whole-ecosystem carbon stocks and cycles and for assessing the impact of climate change on forest carbon dynamics.
AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.2 Level 3 Collated (L3C) Global 4km Sea Surface Temperature for 1981-2012

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.2 Sea Surface Temperature data set (PFV52) is a collection of global, twice-daily 4km sea surface temperature data produced in a...
Global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, J.S.

1991-01-01

Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs
Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

Science.gov (United States)

McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

2018-03-13

Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.
Global weak solutions for coupled transport processes in concrete walls at high temperatures

OpenAIRE

Beneš, Michal; Štefan, Radek

2012-01-01

We consider an initial-boundary value problem for a fully nonlinear coupled parabolic system with nonlinear boundary conditions modelling hygro-thermal behavior of concrete at high temperatures. We prove a global existence of a weak solution to this system on an arbitrary time interval. The main result is proved by an approximation procedure. This consists in proving the existence of solutions to mollified problems using the Leray-Schauder theorem, for which a priori estimates are obtained. T...
The impact of global warming on germination and seedling emergence in Alliaria petiolata, a woodland species with dormancy loss dependent on low temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Footitt, S; Huang, Z; Ölcer-Footitt, H; Clay, H; Finch-Savage, W E

2018-03-23

The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.
Genetic Diversity of Globally Dispersed Lacustrine Group I Haptophytes: Implications for Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions

Science.gov (United States)

Richter, N.; Longo, W. M.; Amaral-Zettler, L. A.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

There are significant uncertainties surrounding the forcings that drive terrestrial temperature changes on local and regional scales. Quantitative temperature reconstructions from terrestrial sites, such as lakes, help to unravel the fundamental processes that drive changes in temperature on different temporal and spatial scales. Recent studies at Brown University show that distinct alkenones, long chain ketones produced by haptophytes, are found in many freshwater, alkaline lakes in the Northern Hemisphere, highlighting these systems as targets for quantitative continental temperature reconstructions. These freshwater alkenones are produced by the Group I haptophyte phylotype and are characterized by a distinct signature: the presence of isomeric tri-unsaturated ketones and absence of alkenoates. There are currently no cultured representatives of the "Group I" haptophytes, hence they are only known based on their rRNA gene signatures. Here we present robust evidence that Northern Hemispheric freshwater, alkaline lakes with the characteristic "Group I" alkenone signature all host the same clade of Isochrysidales haptophytes. We employed next generation DNA amplicon sequencing to target haptophyte specific hypervariable regions of the large and small-subunit ribosomal RNA gene from 13 different lakes from three continents (i.e., North America, Europe, and Asia). Combined with previously published sequences, our genetic data show that the Group I haptophyte is genetically diverse on a regional and global scale, and even within the same lake. We present two case studies from a suite of five lakes in Alaska and three in Iceland to assess the impact of various environmental factors affecting Group I diversity and alkenone production. Despite the genetic diversity in this group, the overall ketone signature is conserved. Based on global surface sediment samples and in situ Alaskan lake calibrations, alkenones produced by different operational taxonomic units of the Group
GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2) from NCEI (GDS versions 1 and 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...
Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank A La Sorte

Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among
Microturbogas cogeneration systems for distributed generation: Effects of ambient temperature on global performance and components’ behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caresana, F.; Pelagalli, L.; Comodi, G.; Renzi, M.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Electrical power reduces with temperature, heat recovery remains almost constant. • Thermal-to-electrical power ratio increases with ambient temperature. • Not only the density of sucked air decreases but also its volumetric flow. • Putting a limit to shaft speed causes TIT to decrease with ambient temperature. • Power reduction with ambient temperature more than doubles that of great GTs. - Abstract: Microturbines (MGTs) are a relatively new technology that is currently attracting a lot of interest in the distributed generation market. Particularly interesting is their use as backup source for integrating photovoltaic panels or/and wind turbines in hybrid systems. In this case the sensitivity to ambient conditions of the MGT adds to that of the renewables and the knowledge of the effects of ambient conditions on its performance becomes a key subject both for the sizing of the energy system and for its optimal dynamic control. Although the dependence of medium/large gas turbines performance on atmospheric conditions is well known and documented in literature, there are very limited reports available on MGTs and they regard only global parameters. The paper aims at filling this lack of information by analyzing the ambient temperature effect on the global performance of an MGT in cogeneration arrangement and by entering in detail into its machines’ behavior. A simulation code, tuned on experimental data, is used for this purpose. Starting from the nominal ISO conditions, electrical power output is shown to decrease with ambient temperature at a rate of about 1.22%/°C, due to a reduction of both air density and volumetric flow. Meanwhile, thermal to electrical power ratio increases at a rate of about 1.30%/°C. As temperature increases compressor delivers less air at a lower pressure, and the turbine expansion ratio and mass flow reduce accordingly. With the in-use control system the turbine inlet temperature reduces at a rate of 0.07%/�
Global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature for informing salmonid disease management

Science.gov (United States)

Javaheri, Amir; Babbar-Sebens, Meghna; Alexander, Julie; Bartholomew, Jerri; Hallett, Sascha

2018-06-01

Many rivers in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are anthropogenically manipulated via dam operations, leading to system-wide impacts on hydrodynamic conditions and aquatic communities. Understanding how dam operations alter abiotic and biotic variables is important for designing management actions. For example, in the Klamath River, dam outflows could be manipulated to alter water age and temperature to reduce risk of parasite infections in salmon by diluting or altering viability of parasite spores. However, sensitivity of water age and temperature to the riverine conditions such as bathymetry can affect outcomes from dam operations. To examine this issue in detail, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature to a comprehensive set of hydraulics and meteorological parameters in the Klamath River, California, where management of salmonid disease is a high priority. We applied an analysis technique, which combined Latin-hypercube and one-at-a-time sampling methods, and included simulation runs with the hydrodynamic numerical model of the Lower Klamath. We found that flow rate and bottom roughness were the two most important parameters that influence water age. Water temperature was more sensitive to inflow temperature, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, flow rate, and wet bulb temperature respectively. Our results are relevant for managers because they provide a framework for predicting how water within 'high infection risk' sections of the river will respond to dam water (low infection risk) input. Moreover, these data will be useful for prioritizing the use of water age (dilution) versus temperature (spore viability) under certain contexts when considering flow manipulation as a method to reduce risk of infection and disease in Klamath River salmon.
Estimating the daily global solar radiation spatial distribution from diurnal temperature ranges over the Tibetan Plateau in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Tao; Wu, Shaohong; Dai, Erfu; Liu, Yujie

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Bristow–Campbell model was calibrated and validated over the Tibetan Plateau. ► Develop a simple method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation and get gridded information. ► The daily global solar radiation spatial distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was estimated. - Abstract: Daily global solar radiation is fundamental to most ecological and biophysical processes because it plays a key role in the local and global energy budget. However, gridded information about the spatial distribution of solar radiation is limited. This study aims to parameterise the Bristow–Campbell model for the daily global solar radiation estimation in the Tibetan Plateau and propose a method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation. Observed daily solar radiation and diurnal temperature data from eleven stations over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2010 were used to calibrate and validate the Bristow–Campbell radiation model. The extra-terrestrial radiation and clear sky atmospheric transmittance were calculated on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results show that the Bristow–Campbell model performs well after adjusting the parameters, the average Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r), Nash–Sutcliffe equation (NSE), ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), and root mean-square error (RMSE) of 11 stations are 0.85, 2.81 MJ m −2 day −1 , 0.3 and 0.77 respectively. Gridded maximum and minimum average temperature data were obtained using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and validated by the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) stations’ data. The spatial daily global solar radiation distribution pattern was estimated and analysed by combining the solar radiation model (Bristow–Campbell model) and meteorological interpolation model (PRISM). Based on the overall results, it can be concluded that a calibrated Bristow–Campbell performs well
A relationship between regional and global GCM surface air temperature changes and its application to an integrated model of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonas, M.; Ganopolski, A.V.; Krabec, J.; Olendrzyski, K.; Petoukhov, V.K.

1994-01-01

This study outlines the advantages of combining the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse affect (IMAGE, an integrated quick turnaround, global model of climate change) with a spatially detailed General Circulation Model (GCM), in this case developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) in Hamburg. The outcome is a modified IMAGE model that simulates the MPI GCM projections of annual surface air temperature change globally and regionally. IMAGE thus provides policy analysts with integrated and regional information about global warming for a great range of policy-dependent greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenarios, while preserving its quick turnaround time. With the help of IMAGE various regional temperature response simulations have been produced. None of these simulations has yet been performed by any GCM. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming. In this study the authors deal only with a simplified subsystem of such an integrated model of climate change, which begins with policy options, neglects the societal component in the greenhouse gas accounting tool, and ends with temperature change as the only output of the climate model. The model the authors employ is the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE, version 1.0), which was developed by the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). IMAGE is a scientifically based, parameterized simulation policy model designed to calculate the historical and future effects of greenhouse gases on global surface and surface air temperatures and sea-level rise
Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andronova, N.; Schlesinger, M.

2004-01-01

During the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol the delegation of Brazil presented an approach for distributing the burden of emissions reductions among the Parties based on the effect of their cumulative historical emissions on the global-average near-surface temperature. The Letter to the Parties does not limit the emissions to be considered to be only greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thus, in this paper we explore the importance of anthropogenic SOx emissions that are converted to sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere, together with the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, in attributing historical temperature change. We use historical emissions and our simple climate model to estimate the relative contributions to global warming of the regional emissions by four Parties: OECD90, Africa and Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Our results show that for most Parties the large warming contributed by their GHG emissions is largely offset by the correspondingly large cooling by their SOx emissions. Thus, OECD90 has become the dominant contributor to recent global warming following its large reduction in SOx emissions after 1980

A global review of freshwater crayfish temperature tolerance, preference, and optimal growth

Science.gov (United States)

Westhoff, Jacob T.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.

2016-01-01

Conservation efforts, environmental planning, and management must account for ongoing ecosystem alteration due to a changing climate, introduced species, and shifting land use. This type of management can be facilitated by an understanding of the thermal ecology of aquatic organisms. However, information on thermal ecology for entire taxonomic groups is rarely compiled or summarized, and reviews of the science can facilitate its advancement. Crayfish are one of the most globally threatened taxa, and ongoing declines and extirpation could have serious consequences on aquatic ecosystem function due to their significant biomass and ecosystem roles. Our goal was to review the literature on thermal ecology for freshwater crayfish worldwide, with emphasis on studies that estimated temperature tolerance, temperature preference, or optimal growth. We also explored relationships between temperature metrics and species distributions. We located 56 studies containing information for at least one of those three metrics, which covered approximately 6 % of extant crayfish species worldwide. Information on one or more metrics existed for all 3 genera of Astacidae, 4 of the 12 genera of Cambaridae, and 3 of the 15 genera of Parastacidae. Investigations employed numerous methodological approaches for estimating these parameters, which restricts comparisons among and within species. The only statistically significant relationship we observed between a temperature metric and species range was a negative linear relationship between absolute latitude and optimal growth temperature. We recommend expansion of studies examining the thermal ecology of freshwater crayfish and identify and discuss methodological approaches that can improve standardization and comparability among studies.
Global characteristics of zonal flows generated by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence in tokamak plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyato, Naoaki; Kishimoto, Yasuaki; Li, Jiquan

2004-08-01

Global structure of zonal flows driven by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence in tokamak plasmas is investigated using a global electromagnetic Landau fluid code. Characteristics of the coupled system of the zonal flows and the turbulence change with the safety factor q. In a low q region stationary zonal flows are excited and suppress the turbulence effectively. Coupling between zonal flows and poloidally asymmetric pressure perturbations via a geodesic curvature makes the zonal flows oscillatory in a high q region. Also we identify energy transfer from the zonal flows to the turbulence via the poloidally asymmetric pressure perturbations in the high q region. Therefore in the high q region the zonal flows cannot quench the turbulent transport completely. (author)
The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.
Estimating Daily Global Evapotranspiration Using Penman–Monteith Equation and Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roozbeh Raoufi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Daily evapotranspiration (ET is modeled globally for the period 2000–2013 based on the Penman–Monteith equation with radiation and vapor pressures derived using remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites. The ET for a given land area is based on four surface conditions: wet/dry and vegetated/non-vegetated. For each, the ET resistance terms are based on land cover, leaf area index (LAI and literature values. The vegetated/non-vegetated fractions of the land surface are estimated using land cover, LAI, a simplified version of the Beer–Lambert law for describing light transition through vegetation and newly derived light extension coefficients for each MODIS land cover type. The wet/dry fractions of the land surface are nonlinear functions of LST derived humidity calibrated using in-situ ET measurements. Results are compared to in-situ measurements (average of the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors for 39 sites are 0.81 mm day−1 and 0.59 mm day−1, respectively and the MODIS ET product, MOD16, (mean bias during 2001–2013 is −0.2 mm day−1. Although the mean global difference between MOD16 and ET estimates is only 0.2 mm day−1, local temperature derived vapor pressures are the likely contributor to differences, especially in energy and water limited regions. The intended application for the presented model is simulating ET based on long-term climate forecasts (e.g., using only minimum, maximum and mean daily or monthly temperatures.
Assimilation of global radar backscatter and radiometer brightness temperature observations to improve soil moisture and land evaporation estimates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lievens, H.; Martens, B.; Verhoest, N.E.C.; Hahn, S.; Reichle, R.H.; Gonzalez Miralles, D.

2016-01-01

Active radar backscatter (σ°) observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and passive radiometer brightness temperature (TB) observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated either individually or jointly into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model
New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

Science.gov (United States)

Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

2017-06-20

The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.
Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia

2017-05-01

Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (r_TG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (r_PG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.
Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

Science.gov (United States)

Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

2018-04-01

The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.
Regional amplification of extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, M.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2016-12-01

Land temperatures, and in particular hot extremes, will likely increase by more than 2° C in many regions, even in the case that the global temperature increase with respect to pre-industrial levels can be limited to 2°C. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for projected changes of extreme temperatures by comparing experiments from the GLACE-CMIP5 (Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) project. In particular, we consider fully coupled experiments with all 6 involved GCMs and corresponding experiments where soil moisture is fixed to the local present-day seasonal cycle until the end of the 21st century. We consider the yearly hottest days and apply a scaling approach whereby we relate changes of hottest days to global mean temperature increase. We find that soil moisture-temperature coupling significantly contributes to additional future warming of extreme temperatures in many regions: In particular, it can explain more than 70% of the warming amplification of hottest days compared to global mean temperature in Central Europe, Central North America and Northern Australia, and around 50% of this signal in the Amazonian Region and Southern Africa.
Biological characteristics of Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) for three consecutive generations under different temperatures: understanding the possible impact of global warming on a soybean pest.

Science.gov (United States)

da Silva, D M; Hoffmann-Campo, C B; de Freitas Bueno, A; de Freitas Bueno, R C O; de Oliveira, M C N; Moscardi, F

2012-06-01

Climate changes can affect the distribution and intensity of insect infestations through direct effects on their life cycles. Experiments were carried out during three consecutive generations to evaluate the effect of different temperatures (25°C, 28°C, 31°C, 34°C and 37±1°C) on biological traits of the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis Hübner, 1818 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). The insects were fed on artificial diet and reared in environmental chambers set at 14 h photophase. The developmental cycle slowed with the increase in the temperature, within the 25°C to 34°C range. Male and female longevities were reduced with an increase in temperature from 25°C to 28°C. Egg viability was highest at 25°C, and the sex ratio was not influenced by temperature, in the three generations. There was no interactive effect between development time and temperature on pupal weight. The results suggested that the increase in the temperature negatively impacted A. gemmatalis development inside the studied temperature range, indicating a possible future reduction of its occurrence on soybean crops, as a consequence of global warming, mainly considering its impact on tropical countries where this plant is cropped. A. gemmatalis was not able to adapt to higher temperatures in a three-generation interval for the studied temperature range. However, a gradual increase and a longer adaptation period may favor insect selection and consequently adaptation, and must be considered in future studies in this area. Moreover, it is important to consider that global warming might turn cold areas more suitable to A. gemmatalis outbreaks. Therefore, more than a future reduction of A. gemmatalis occurrence due to global warming, we might expect changes regarding its area of occurrence on a global perspective.
Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

Science.gov (United States)

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-05-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a
Global IP6K1 deletion enhances temperature modulated energy expenditure which reduces carbohydrate and fat induced weight gain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qingzhang Zhu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: IP6 kinases (IP6Ks regulate cell metabolism and survival. Mice with global (IP6K1-KO or adipocyte-specific (AdKO deletion of IP6K1 are protected from diet induced obesity (DIO at ambient (23 °C temperature. AdKO mice are lean primarily due to increased AMPK mediated thermogenic energy expenditure (EE. Thus, at thermoneutral (30 °C temperature, high fat diet (HFD-fed AdKO mice expend energy and gain body weight, similar to control mice. IP6K1 is ubiquitously expressed; thus, it is critical to determine to what extent the lean phenotype of global IP6K1-KO mice depends on environmental temperature. Furthermore, it is not known whether IP6K1 regulates AMPK mediated EE in cells, which do not express UCP1. Methods: Q-NMR, GTT, food intake, EE, QRT-PCR, histology, mitochondrial oxygen consumption rate (OCR, fatty acid metabolism assays, and immunoblot studies were conducted in IP6K1-KO and WT mice or cells. Results: Global IP6K1 deletion mediated enhancement in EE is impaired albeit not abolished at 30 °C. As a result, IP6K1-KO mice are protected from DIO, insulin resistance, and fatty liver even at 30 °C. Like AdKO, IP6K1-KO mice display enhanced adipose tissue browning. However, unlike AdKO mice, thermoneutrality only partly abolishes browning in IP6K1-KO mice. Cold (5 °C exposure enhances carbohydrate expenditure, whereas 23 °C and 30 °C promote fat oxidation in HFD-KO mice. Furthermore, IP6K1 deletion diminishes cellular fat accumulation via activation of the AMPK signaling pathway. Conclusions: Global deletion of IP6K1 ameliorates obesity and insulin resistance irrespective of the environmental temperature conditions, which strengthens its validity as an anti-obesity target. Keywords: IP6K, Obesity, Diabetes, Energy expenditure, β-oxidation
Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for
Modelling global fresh surface water temperature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beek, L.P.H. van; Eikelboom, T.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

Temperature directly determines a range of water physical properties including vapour pressure, surface tension, density and viscosity, and the solubility of oxygen and other gases. Indirectly water temperature acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing sediment
A model–data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Lohmann

2013-08-01

Full Text Available We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST in the models shows a high-latitude cooling and a low-latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 yr. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We test if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We explore whether consideration of different growing seasons and depth habitats of the planktonic organisms used for temperature reconstruction could lead to a better agreement of model results with proxy data on a regional scale. The extent to which temporal shifts in growing season or vertical shifts in depth habitat can reduce model–data misfits is determined. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model–data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modelled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behaviour of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Results indicate that modelled and reconstructed
Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Ou, Chun-Quan; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Zhou, Qin; Shen, Gi-Chuan; Chen, Ping-Yan; Guo, Yuming

2013-04-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.
A global weighted mean temperature model based on empirical orthogonal function analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qinzheng; Chen, Peng; Sun, Langlang; Ma, Xiaping

2018-03-01

A global empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model of the tropospheric weighted mean temperature called GEOFM_Tm was developed using high-precision Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere Tm data during the years 2008-2014. Due to the quick convergence of EOF decomposition, it is possible to use the first four EOF series, which consists base functions Uk and associated coefficients Pk, to represent 99.99% of the overall variance of the original data sets and its spatial-temporal variations. Results show that U1 displays a prominent latitude distribution profile with positive peaks located at low latitude region. U2 manifests an asymmetric pattern that positive values occurred over 30° in the Northern Hemisphere, and negative values were observed at other regions. U3 and U4 displayed significant anomalies in Tibet and North America, respectively. Annual variation is the major component of the first and second associated coefficients P1 and P2, whereas P3 and P4 mainly reflects both annual and semi-annual variation components. Furthermore, the performance of constructed GEOFM_Tm was validated by comparison with GTm_III and GTm_N with different kinds of data including GGOS Atmosphere Tm data in 2015 and radiosonde data from Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) in 2014. Generally speaking, GEOFM_Tm can achieve the same accuracy and reliability as GTm_III and GTm_N models in a global scale, even has improved in the Antarctic and Greenland regions. The MAE and RMS of GEOFM_Tm tend to be 2.49 K and 3.14 K with respect to GGOS Tm data, respectively; and 3.38 K and 4.23 K with respect to IGRA sounding data, respectively. In addition, those three models have higher precision at low latitude than middle and high latitude regions. The magnitude of Tm remains at the range of 220-300 K, presented a high correlation with geographic latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, there was a significant enhancement at high latitude region reaching 270 K during summer
Geomagnetic activity and the global temperature

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bucha, Václav

2009-01-01

Roč. 53, č. 4 (2009), s. 571-573 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : global warming * Southern Oscillation * geomagnetic storms Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2009
Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

OpenAIRE

Lisa V. Alexander

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...

Hiatus in global warming - example of water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge (Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ducić Vladan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The research included trends in water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge and surface air temperature at the nearby meteorological station Sombor, as well as an analysis of the results obtained in relation to the claims of the existence of the hiatus in global air temperature increase in the period 1998-2012. In the period 1961-2013, there was a statistically significant increase in the mean annual water temperature (0.039°C/year, as well as all the average monthly values. However, with annual values for the period 1998-2013, there was a decrease. The longest periods of negative trend (27 years were recorded for January and February. A high correlation was found between the surface air temperature and water temperature for all monthly and seasonal values. In the mean annual air temperature the presence of the hiatus is not observed, but a negative trend is recorded in March (32 years, December (43 years and February (49 years. The highest correlations between water temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO were obtained for the NAO in January (0.60, the AMO in autumn (0.52 and the NAO in winter (0.51. For surface air temperature, the highest correlations were registered for the AMO in summer (0.49 and the NAO in winter (0.42. The results indicate the dominant role of natural factors in the decrease of winter air temperature and water temperature of the Danube. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007
Simply obtained global radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture in an alley cropping system in semi-arid Kenya

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mungai, D.N.; Stigter, C.J.; Coulson, C.L.; Ng'ang'a, J.K.

2000-01-01

Global radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture data were obtained from a 4-6 year old Cassia siamea/maize (CM) alley cropping (or hedgerow intercropping) system, at a semi-arid site at Machakos, Kenya, in the late eighties. With the growing need to explore and manage variations in
Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

2015-01-29

Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.
Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

2018-05-13

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of
Global view of F-region electron density and temperature at solar maximum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brace, L.H.; Theis, R.F.; Hoegy, W.R.

1982-01-01

Dynamics Explorer-2 is permitting the first measurements of the global structure of the F-regions at very high levels of solar activity (S>200). Selected full orbits of Langmuir probe measurements of electron temperature, T/sub e/, and density, N/sub e/, are shown to illustrate this global structure and some of the ionospheric features that are the topic of other papers in this issue. The ionospheric thermal structure is of particular interest because T/sub e/ is a sensitive indicator of the coupling of magnetospheric energy into the upper atmosphere. A comparison of these heating effects with those observed at solar minimum shows that the magnetospheric sources are more important at solar maximum, as might have been expected. Heating at the cusp, the auroral oval and the plasma-pause is generally both greater and more variable. Electron cooling rate calculations employing low latitude measurements indicate that solar extreme ultraviolet heating of the F region at solar maximum is enhanced by a factor that is greater than the increase in solar flux. Some of this enhanced electron heating arises from the increase in electron heating efficiency at the higher N/sub e/ of solar maximum, but this appears insufficient to completely resolve the discrepancy
What Fraction of Global Fire Activity Can Be Forecast Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Morton, D. C.; Andela, N.; Giglio, L.

2015-12-01

Variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can influence climate dynamics in local and remote land areas, and thus influence fire-climate interactions that govern burned area. SST information has been recently used in statistical models to create seasonal outlooks of fire season severity in South America and as the initial condition for dynamical model predictions of fire activity in Indonesia. However, the degree to which large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions can influence burned area in other continental regions has not been systematically explored. Here we quantified the amount of global burned area that can be predicted using SSTs in 14 different oceans regions as statistical predictors. We first examined lagged correlations between GFED4s burned area and the 14 ocean climate indices (OCIs) individually. The maximum correlations from different OCIs were used to construct a global map of fire predictability. About half of the global burned area can be forecast by this approach 3 months before the peak burning month (with a Pearson's r of 0.5 or higher), with the highest levels of predictability in Central America and Equatorial Asia. Several hotspots of predictability were identified using k-means cluster analysis. Within these regions, we tested the improvements of the forecast by using two OCIs from different oceans. Our forecast models were based on near-real-time SST data and may therefore support the development of new seasonal outlooks for fire activity that can aid the sustainable management of these fire-prone ecosystems.
Global Warming Estimation from MSU

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

1999-01-01

In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.
Temperature fluctuations superimposed on background temperature change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otto, James; Roberts, J.A.

2016-01-01

Proxy data allows the temperature of the Earth to be mapped over long periods of time. In this work the temperature fluctuations for over 200 proxy data sets were examined and from this set 50 sets were analyzed to test for periodic and quasi-periodic fluctuations in the data sets. Temperature reconstructions over 4 different time scales were analyzed to see if patterns emerged. Data were put into four time intervals; 4,000 years, 14,000 years, 1,000,000 years, and 3,000,000 years and analyzed with a goal to understanding periodic and quasi-periodic patterns in global temperature change superimposed on a “background” average temperature change. Quasi-periodic signatures were identified that predate the Industrial Revolution, during much of which direct data on temperature are not available. These data indicate that Earth temperatures have undergone a number of periodic and quasi-periodic intervals that contain both global warming and global cooling cycles. The fluctuations are superimposed on a background of temperature change that has a declining slope during the two periods, pre-ice age and post ice age with a transition about 12,000 BCE. The data are divided into “events” that span the time periods 3,000,000 BCE to “0” CE, 1,000,000 BCE to “0” CE, 12,000 BCE to 2,000 CE and 2,000 BCE to 2,000 CE. An equation using a quasi-periodic (frequency modulated sine waves) patterns was developed to analyze the date sets for quasi-periodic patterns. “Periodicities” which show reasonable agreement with the predictions of Milankovitch and other investigators were found in the data sets.
Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

1998-01-01

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar
Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-02-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.
GHRSST Level 2P Global Bulk Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-17 satellite (GDS version 1)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Level 2P Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals from the...
GHRSST Level 2P Global Bulk Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-16 satellite (GDS version 1)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Level 2P Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals from the...
An evaluation of temperature and precipitation from global and regional climate models over Scandinavia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

Precipitation and temperature from global (GCMs) and regional (RCMs) climate models are compared with reanalysis and observations over Scandinavia. Also projections for the next 50-100 years are considered. The climate development is visualised as moving averages (1920-2100). Box plots are used to illuminate how well GCM runs capture the observed seasonal cycle. Maps show the seasonal difference between results from control runs (RCM) and observations (E-OBS dataset) for the reference period 1981-2000. Plots illustrate the RCM-representation of seasonal temperature and precipitations cycle for five locations in Norway and Sweden: Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, Tromsoe and Oestersund. The results show rather large differences between control runs and observations, demonstrating the need for bias correction of results from climate models. To get an indicator of which GC M-RCM-combination give the best representation of present climate over Scandinavia, a model ranking is provided. The performance measure used is the root-mean-square deviation of mean monthly and seasonal values. The data is compared both in an area-weighted spatial average of the whole domain as well as for the selected locations. The results indicate that the regional models RACMO2 and RCA show the smallest deviations from observed climate. Among the top ranking GCM-RCM combinations, most were driven by the global model ECHAM5 and some by a version of HadCM3. These two GCMs are also present among the worst performing GCM-RCM combinations indicating that selection of RCMs is crucial. (Author)
Gyrokinetic global analysis of ion temperature gradient driven mode in reversed shear tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Idomura, Y.; Tokuda, S.; Kishimoto, Y.

2003-01-01

A new toroidal gyrokinetic particle code has been developed to study the ion temperature gradient driven (ITG) turbulence in reactor relevant tokamak parameters. We use a new method based on a canonical Maxwellian distribution F CM (P φ , ε, μ), which is defined by three constants of motion in the axisymmetric toroidal system, the canonical angular momentum P φ , the energy ε, and the magnetic moment μ. A quasi-ballooning representation enables linear and nonlinear high-m,n global calculations with a good numerical convergence. Conservation properties are improved by using the optimized loading method. From comprehensive linear global analyses over a wide range of an unstable toroidal mode number spectrum (n=0∼100) in large tokamak parameters (a/ρ ti =320∼460), properties of the ITG modes in reversed shear tokamaks are discussed. In the nonlinear simulation, it is found that a new method based on F CM can simulate a zonal flow damping correctly, and spurious zonal flow oscillations, which are observed in a conventional method based on a local Maxwellian distribution F LM (ψ, ε, μ), do not appear in the nonlinear regime. (author)
Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Karmalkar, Ambarish V; Bradley, Raymond S

2017-01-01

The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is
The multifractal structure of satellite sea surface temperature maps can be used to obtain global maps of streamlines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Turiel

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Nowadays Earth observation satellites provide information about many relevant variables of the ocean-climate system, such as temperature, moisture, aerosols, etc. However, to retrieve the velocity field, which is the most relevant dynamical variable, is still a technological challenge, specially in the case of oceans. New processing techniques, emerged from the theory of turbulent flows, have come to assist us in this task. In this paper, we show that multifractal techniques applied to new Sea Surface Temperature satellite products opens the way to build maps of ocean currents with unprecedented accuracy. With the application of singularity analysis, we show that global ocean circulation patterns can be retrieved in a daily basis. We compare these results with high-quality altimetry-derived geostrophic velocities, finding a quite good correspondence of the observed patterns both qualitatively and quantitatively; and this is done for the first time on a global basis, even for less active areas. The implications of this findings from the perspective both of theory and of operational applications are discussed.
Response of temperature and density profiles to heat deposition profile and its impact on global scaling in LHD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamada, H.

2002-01-01

Significant density dependence of the energy confinement time as described in the ISS95 scaling has been demonstrated in the extended parameter regimes in LHD. However, recent experiments have indicated that this density dependence is lost at a certain density under specific conditions. This paper discusses the cause of this saturation and related characteristics of anomalous transport. The saturation of the energy confinement time is observed in the density ramp-up phase of NBI heated plasmas. In contrast to the global energy confinement time, the local heat conduction coefficient still indicates the temperature dependence which is a companion to the density dependence of the energy confinement time. The apparent contradiction between the global confinement and the local transport can be attributed to the change of the heat deposition profile. Through this study, the response of temperature and density profiles to the heat deposition profile is highlighted, which is contrasted to the concept of stiffness or profile consistency observed in tokamaks. The major anomalous transport models based on ITG/TEM and interchange/ballooning modes are assessed. (author)
Isolating the Roles of Different Forcing Agents in Global Stratospheric Temperature Changes Using Model Integrations with Incrementally Added Single Forcings

Science.gov (United States)

Aquila, V.; Swartz, W. H.; Waugh, D. W.; Colarco, P. R.; Pawson, S.; Polvani, L. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

2016-01-01

Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid-1990s is due to the decrease in ozone-depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely
Temperature Effect on Energy Demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-03-01

We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas demand. We exploit temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly energy consumption data during the sample period (1990 - 1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on energy demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods. (author). 15 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.
Internally generated natural variability of global-mean temperatures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigley, T.M.L.; Raper, S.C.B.

1990-01-01

Quantitative frequency-domain and time-domain estimates are made of an important aspect of natural variability of global-mean temperatures, namely, passive internal variability resulting from the modulation of atmospheric variability by the ocean. The results are derived using an upwelling-diffusion, energy-balance climate model. In the frequency domain, analytical spectral results show a transition from a high-frequency region in which the response is determined by the mixed-layer heat capacity and is independent of the climate sensitivity (time scales less than around 10 years), to a low-frequency region in which the response depends only on the climate sensitivity. In the former region the spectral power is proportional to f -2 , where f is the frequency, while in the latter the power is independent of frequency. The range of validity of these results depends on the components of the climate system that are included in the model. In this case these restrict the low-frequency results to time scales less than about 1,000 years. A qualitative extrapolation is presented in an attempt to explain the observed low-frequency power spectra from deep-sea-core δ 18 O time series. The spectral results are also used to estimate the effective heat capacity of the ocean as a function of frequency. At low frequencies, this can range up to 50 times greater than the heat capacity of the mixed layer. Results in the time domain are obtained by solving the model equations numerically

Temperature minima in the average thermal structure of the middle mesosphere (70 - 80 km) from analysis of 40- to 92-km SME global temperature profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Clancy, R. Todd; Rusch, David W.; Callan, Michael T.

1994-01-01

Global temperatures have been derived for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere from analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) limb radiance profiles. The SME temperature represent fixed local time observations at 1400 - 1500 LT, with partial zonal coverage of 3 - 5 longitudes per day over the 1982-1986 period. These new SME temperatures are compared to the COSPAR International Ionosphere Reference Atmosphere 86 (CIRA 86) climatology (Fleming et al., 1990) as well as stratospheric and mesospheric sounder (SAMS); Barnett and Corney, 1984), National Meteorological Center (NMC); (Gelman et al., 1986), and individual lidar and rocket observations. Significant areas of disagreement between the SME and CIRA 86 mesospheric temperatures are 10 K warmer SME temperatures at altitudes above 80 km. The 1981-1982 SAMS temperatures are in much closer agreement with the SME temperatures between 40 and 75 km. Although much of the SME-CIRA 86 disagreement probably stems from the poor vertical resolution of the observations comprising the CIRA 86 modelm, some portion of the differences may reflect 5- to 10-year temporal variations in mesospheric temperatures. The CIRA 86 climatology is based on 1973-1978 measurements. Relatively large (1 K/yr) 5- to 10-year trends in temperatures as functions of longitude, latitude, and altitude have been observed for both the upper stratosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989a) and mesosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989b; Hauchecorne et al., 1991). The SME temperatures also exhibit enhanced amplitudes for the semiannual oscillation (SAO) of upper mesospheric temperatures at low latitudes, which are not evident in the CIRA 86 climatology. The so-called mesospheric `temperature inversions' at wintertime midlatitudes, which have been observed by ground-based lidar (Hauschecorne et al., 1987) and rocket in situ measurements (Schmidlin, 1976), are shown to be a climatological aspect of the mesosphere, based on the SME observations.
Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

2017-04-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.
Ocean heat content and ocean energy budget: make better use of historical global subsurface temperature dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, L.; Zhu, J.

2016-02-01

Ocean heat content (OHC) change contributes substantially to global sea level rise, also is a key metric of the ocean/global energy budget, so it is a vital task for the climate research community to estimate historical OHC. While there are large uncertainties regarding its value, here we review the OHC calculation by using the historical global subsurface temperature dataset, and discuss the sources of its uncertainty. The presentation briefly introduces how to correct to the systematic biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, a alternative way of filling data gaps (which is main focus of this talk), and how to choose a proper climatology. A new reconstruction of historical upper (0-700 m) OHC change will be presented, which is the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) version of historical upper OHC assessment. The authors also want to highlight the impact of observation system change on OHC calculation, which could lead to bias in OHC estimates. Furthermore, we will compare the updated observational-based estimates on ocean heat content change since 1970s with CMIP5 results. This comparison shows good agreement, increasing the confidence of the climate models in representing the climate history.
Global analysis of the temperature and flow fields in samples heated in multizone resistance furnaces

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Grande, I.; Rivas, D.; de Pablo, V.

The temperature field in samples heated in multizone resistance furnaces will be analyzed, using a global model where the temperature fields in the sample, the furnace and the insulation are coupled; the input thermal data is the electric power supplied to the heaters. The radiation heat exchange between the sample and the furnace is formulated analytically, taking into account specular reflections at the sample; for the solid sample the reflectance is both diffuse and specular, and for the melt it is mostly specular. This behavior is modeled through the exchange view factors, which depend on whether the sample is solid or liquid, and, therefore, they are not known a priori. The effect of this specular behavior in the temperature field will be analyzed, by comparing with the case of diffuse samples. A parameter of great importance is the thermal conductivity of the insulation material; it will be shown that the temperature field depends strongly on it. A careful characterization of the insulation is therefore necessary, here it will be done with the aid of experimental results, which will also serve to validate the model. The heating process in the floating-zone technique in microgravity conditions will be simulated; parameters like the Marangoni number or the temperature gradient at the melt-crystal interface will be estimated. Application to the case of compound samples (graphite-silicon-graphite) will be made; the temperature distribution in the silicon part will be studied, especially the temperature difference between the two graphite rods that hold the silicon, since it drives the thermocapillary flow in the melt. This flow will be studied, after coupling the previous model with the convective effects. The possibility of suppresing this flow by the controlled vibration of the graphite rods will be also analyzed. Numerical results show that the thermocapillary flow can indeed be counterbalanced quite effectively.
A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. D. Annan

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Some recent compilations of proxy data both on land and ocean (MARGO Project Members, 2009; Bartlein et al., 2011; Shakun et al., 2012, have provided a new opportunity for an improved assessment of the overall climatic state of the Last Glacial Maximum. In this paper, we combine these proxy data with the ensemble of structurally diverse state of the art climate models which participated in the PMIP2 project (Braconnot et al., 2007 to generate a spatially complete reconstruction of surface air (and sea surface temperatures. We test a variety of approaches, and show that multiple linear regression performs well for this application. Our reconstruction is significantly different to and more accurate than previous approaches and we obtain an estimated global mean cooling of 4.0 ± 0.8 °C (95% CI.
Global Model of Time-Modulated Electronegative Discharges for Neutral Radical and Electron Temperature Control

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sungjin; Lieberman, M. A.; Lichtenberg, A. J.

2003-10-01

Control and reduction of neutral radical flux/ion flux ratio and electron temperature Te is required for next generation etching in the microelectronics industry. We investigate time-modulated power for these purposes using a volume-averaged (global) oxygen discharge model, We consider pressures of 10-50 mTorr and plasma densities of 10^10-10^11 cm-3. In this regime, the discharge is found to be weakly electronegative. The modulation period and the duty ratio (on-time/period) are varied to determine the optimum conditions for reduction of FR= O-atom flux/ion flux and T_e. Two chambers with different height/diameter ratios (SMART Contract SM99-10051.
Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.

2009-01-01

Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070
Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass.

Science.gov (United States)

Jueterbock, A; Franssen, S U; Bergmann, N; Gu, J; Coyer, J A; Reusch, T B H; Bornberg-Bauer, E; Olsen, J L

2016-11-01

Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina, the most widely distributed seagrass in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A North-South pair of populations was sampled along the European and North American coasts and exposed to a simulated heatwave in a common-garden mesocosm. Transcriptomic responses under control, heat stress and recovery were recorded in 99 RNAseq libraries with ~13 000 uniquely annotated, expressed genes. We corrected for phylogenetic differentiation among populations to discriminate neutral from adaptive differentiation. The two southern populations recovered faster from heat stress and showed parallel transcriptomic differentiation, as compared with northern populations. Among 2389 differentially expressed genes, 21 exceeded neutral expectations and were likely involved in parallel adaptation to warm temperatures. However, the strongest differentiation following phylogenetic correction was between the three Atlantic populations and the Mediterranean population with 128 of 4711 differentially expressed genes exceeding neutral expectations. Although adaptation to warm temperatures is expected to reduce sensitivity to heatwaves, the continued resistance of seagrass to further anthropogenic stresses may be impaired by heat-induced downregulation of genes related to photosynthesis, pathogen defence and stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Surface Temperature Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Ruedy, Reto

2012-01-01

Small global mean temperature changes may have significant to disastrous consequences for the Earth's climate if they persist for an extended period. Obtaining global means from local weather reports is hampered by the uneven spatial distribution of the reliably reporting weather stations. Methods had to be developed that minimize as far as possible the impact of that situation. This software is a method of combining temperature data of individual stations to obtain a global mean trend, overcoming/estimating the uncertainty introduced by the spatial and temporal gaps in the available data. Useful estimates were obtained by the introduction of a special grid, subdividing the Earth's surface into 8,000 equal-area boxes, using the existing data to create virtual stations at the center of each of these boxes, and combining temperature anomalies (after assessing the radius of high correlation) rather than temperatures.
Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ambarish V Karmalkar

Full Text Available The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation
Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

2017-12-01

Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to
A GLOBAL TWO-TEMPERATURE CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE MODEL: A COMPREHENSIVE VALIDATION STUDY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; Van der Holst, B.; Gruesbeck, J. R.; Frazin, R. A.; Landi, E.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I. [Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Vasquez, A. M. [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (CONICET-UBA) and FCEN (UBA), CC 67, Suc 28, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Lamy, P. L.; Llebaria, A.; Fedorov, A., E-mail: jinmeng@umich.edu [Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Marseille, Universite de Provence, Marseille (France)

2012-01-20

The recent solar minimum with very low activity provides us a unique opportunity for validating solar wind models. During CR2077 (2008 November 20 through December 17), the number of sunspots was near the absolute minimum of solar cycle 23. For this solar rotation, we perform a multi-spacecraft validation study for the recently developed three-dimensional, two-temperature, Alfven-wave-driven global solar wind model (a component within the Space Weather Modeling Framework). By using in situ observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) A and B, Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and Venus Express, we compare the observed proton state (density, temperature, and velocity) and magnetic field of the heliosphere with that predicted by the model. Near the Sun, we validate the numerical model with the electron density obtained from the solar rotational tomography of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph C2 data in the range of 2.4 to 6 solar radii. Electron temperature and density are determined from differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) of STEREO A and B Extreme Ultraviolet Imager data in the range of 1.035 to 1.225 solar radii. The electron density and temperature derived from the Hinode/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer data are also used to compare with the DEMT as well as the model output. Moreover, for the first time, we compare ionic charge states of carbon, oxygen, silicon, and iron observed in situ with the ACE/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer with those predicted by our model. The validation results suggest that most of the model outputs for CR2077 can fit the observations very well. Based on this encouraging result, we therefore expect great improvement for the future modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and CME-driven shocks.
[The global climate: a sick patient

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lidegaard, O.; Lidegaard, M.

2008-01-01

, and major climatic disasters, including health threats to millions of people, are probable if the CO2 emission increases further. Therefore, serious global initiatives should be taken now in order to prevent global over heating. Denmark should be at the forefront of these initiatives Udgivelsesdato: 2008/8/25......Over the last 100 years the human use of fossil fuel has increased the atmospheric CO2 content from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm. This increase is expected to increase the global average temperature by a few degrees. The global climate is very sensitive to an increase in temperature...
Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiangzheng Deng

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.
Global Warming and Changing Temperature Patterns over Mauritius ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper discusses the changing temperature pattern over Mauritius. We observe an increase of the annual mean temperature at Pamplemousses since 1876 with an average rate of 0.009oC per year with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.67. Compared to the mean temperature for the period of 1951 to 1960, we ...
Analysis of Long-Term Global Solar Radiation, Sunshine Duration and Air Temperature Data of Ankara and Modeling with Curve Fitting Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehmet YEŞİLBUDAK

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The information about solar parameters is important in the installation of photovoltaic energy systems that are reliable, environmentally friendly and sustainable. In this study, initially, long-term global solar radiation, sunshine duration and air temperature data of Ankara are analyzed on the annual, monthly and daily basis, elaborately. Afterwards, three different empirical methods that are polynomial, Gaussian and Fourier are used for the purpose of modeling long-term monthly total global solar radiation, monthly total sunshine duration and monthly mean air temperature data. The coefficient of determination and the root mean square error are computed as statistical test metrics in order to compare data modeling performance of the mentioned empirical methods. The empirical methods that provide the best results enable to model the solar characteristics of Ankara more accurately and the achieved outcomes constitute the significant resource for other locations with similar climatic conditions.
Microwave sounding units and global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Gary, Bruce L.; Keihm, Stephen J.

1991-01-01

A recent work of Spencer and Christy (1990) on precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites is critically examined. It is tentatively concluded in the present comment that remote sensing using satellite microwave radiometers can in fact provide a means for the monitoring of troposphere-averaged air temperature. However, for this to be successful more than one decade of data will be required to overcome the apparent inherent variability of global average air temperature. It is argued that the data set reported by Spencer and Christy should be subjected to careful review before it is interpreted as evidence of the presence or absence of global warming. In a reply, Christy provides specific responses to the commenters' objections.
Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-06-06

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.
Variations of global gravity waves derived from 14 years of SABER temperature observations

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiao; Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Garcia, Rolando R.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin; Wu, Dong L.; Nakamura, Takuji

2017-06-01

The global gravity wave (GW) potential energy (PE) per unit mass is derived from SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) temperature profiles over the past 14 years (2002-2015). Since the SABER data cover longer than one solar cycle, multivariate linear regression is applied to calculate the trend (means linear trend from 2002 to 2015) of global GW PE and the responses of global GW PE to solar activity, to QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) and to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). We find a significant positive trend of GW PE at around 50°N during July from 2002 to 2015, in agreement with ground-based radar observations at a similar latitude but from 1990 to 2010. Both the monthly and the deseasonalized trends of GW PE are significant near 50°S. Specifically, the deseasonalized trend of GW PE has a positive peak of 12-15% per decade at 40°S-50°S and below 60 km, which suggests that eddy diffusion is increasing in some places. A significant positive trend of GW PE near 50°S could be due to the strengthening of the polar stratospheric jets, as documented from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications wind data. The response of GW PE to solar activity is negative in the lower and middle latitudes. The response of GW PE to QBO (as indicated by 30 hPa zonal winds over the equator) is negative in the tropical upper stratosphere and extends to higher latitudes at higher altitudes. The response of GW PE to ENSO (as indicated by the Multivariate ENSO Index) is positive in the tropical upper stratosphere.
Global warming update: Recent scientific findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This study, from the George C. Marshall Institute, considers recent scientific findings on the extent of human-induced global warming. The earth's temperature has risen by approximately half a degree Celsius in the last 100 years, coinciding with a substantial increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, apparently the result of human activity. Several scientific groups have concluded that manmade emissions of greenhouse gases has produced much or all of the recent rise in global temperatures. They predict a doubling of carbon dioxide by the mid-21st century resulting in a global temperature rise of 5 degrees C and causing severe disruptions in the earth's ecosystem. The available data on climatic change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. Enormous economic stakes ride on government decisions about carbon taxes and other CO 2 emission restrictions. Attention must be paid to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. The discussion is divided into five parts: introduction; Are the Greenhouse Forecasts Reliable?; The Cause of Recent Climate Changes; New Results on Global Flooding; Conclusions; Policy Implications. 27 refs., 9 figs

Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reck, R.A.

1994-01-01

This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference
GHRSST Level 2P Global Bulk Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-17 satellite produced by NAVO (GDS version 1)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...
Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Xiao

2018-04-01

In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.
Carbon inventories and atmospheric temperatures: A global and regional perspective

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

DileepKumar, M.

stream_size 3 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt stream_source_info Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...
The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...
Advances in Global Water Cycle Science Made Possible by Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Within this decade the internationally sponsored Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams from very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and on to blends of the former datastreams with other less-high caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of NASA's role in global water cycle science and its own Global Water & Energy Cycle (GWEC) program, GPM is the centerpiece mission for improving our understanding of the global water cycle from a space-based measurement perspective. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in global temperature. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination, This paper presents an overview of the Global Precipitation Mission and how its datasets can be used in a set of quantitative tests within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine comprehensively whether substantive rate changes do accompany perturbations in global temperatures and how such rate changes manifest themselves in both water storage and water flux transport processes.
A real-time Global Warming Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

2017-11-13

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.
Global-Scale Associations of Vegetation Phenology with Rainfall and Temperature at a High Spatio-Temporal Resolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas Clinton

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Phenology response to climatic variables is a vital indicator for understanding changes in biosphere processes as related to possible climate change. We investigated global phenology relationships to precipitation and land surface temperature (LST at high spatial and temporal resolution for calendar years 2008–2011. We used cross-correlation between MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, MODIS LST and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN gridded rainfall to map phenology relationships at 1-km spatial resolution and weekly temporal resolution. We show these data to be rich in spatiotemporal information, illustrating distinct phenology patterns as a result of complex overlapping gradients of climate, ecosystem and land use/land cover. The data are consistent with broad-scale, coarse-resolution modeled ecosystem limitations to moisture, temperature and irradiance. We suggest that high-resolution phenology data are useful as both an input and complement to land use/land cover classifiers and for understanding climate change vulnerability in natural and anthropogenic landscapes.
GHRSST Level 2P Global Skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-A satellite produced by EUMETSAT (GDS version 1)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global 1 km Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated...
Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-01-01

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes. PMID:28585927
The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost Database: metadata statistics and prospective analysis on future permafrost temperature and active layer depth monitoring site distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Biskaborn, B. K.; Lanckman, J.-P.; Lantuit, H.; Elger, K.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Cable, W. L.; Romanovsky, V. E.

2015-03-01

The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness data from Arctic, Antarctic and Mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of the database is to establish an "early warning system" for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata aiming to identify the spatial gaps in the GTN-P site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the Data Management System in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50% metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi Tessellation Analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides potential locations of additional permafrost research sites to improve the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73% are shallower than 25 m and 27% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations on maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high
Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J.; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A.; Lake, Iain R.

2018-01-01

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. PMID:29844166
Limited tolerance by insects to high temperatures across tropical elevational gradients and the implications of global warming for extinction.

Science.gov (United States)

García-Robledo, Carlos; Kuprewicz, Erin K; Staines, Charles L; Erwin, Terry L; Kress, W John

2016-01-19

The critical thermal maximum (CTmax), the temperature at which motor control is lost in animals, has the potential to determine if species will tolerate global warming. For insects, tolerance to high temperatures decreases with latitude, suggesting that similar patterns may exist along elevational gradients as well. This study explored how CTmax varies among species and populations of a group of diverse tropical insect herbivores, the rolled-leaf beetles, across both broad and narrow elevational gradients. Data from 6,948 field observations and 8,700 museum specimens were used to map the elevational distributions of rolled-leaf beetles on two mountains in Costa Rica. CTmax was determined for 1,252 individual beetles representing all populations across the gradients. Initial morphological identifications suggested a total of 26 species with populations at different elevations displaying contrasting upper thermal limits. However, compared with morphological identifications, DNA barcodes (cytochrome oxidase I) revealed significant cryptic species diversity. DNA barcodes identified 42 species and haplotypes across 11 species complexes. These 42 species displayed much narrower elevational distributions and values of CTmax than the 26 morphologically defined species. In general, species found at middle elevations and on mountaintops are less tolerant to high temperatures than species restricted to lowland habitats. Species with broad elevational distributions display high CTmax throughout their ranges. We found no significant phylogenetic signal in CTmax, geography, or elevational range. The narrow variance in CTmax values for most rolled-leaf beetles, especially high-elevation species, suggests that the risk of extinction of insects may be substantial under some projected rates of global warming.
Why must a solar forcing be larger than a CO2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modak, Angshuman; Bala, Govindasamy; Cao, Long; Caldeira, Ken

2016-01-01

Many previous studies have shown that a solar forcing must be greater than a CO 2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change but a process-based mechanistic explanation is lacking in the literature. In this study, we investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for the lower efficacy of solar forcing compared to an equivalent CO 2 forcing. Radiative forcing is estimated using the Gregory method that regresses top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux against the change in global mean surface temperature. For a 2.25% increase in solar irradiance that produces the same long term global mean warming as a doubling of CO 2 concentration, we estimate that the efficacy of solar forcing is ∼80% relative to CO 2 forcing in the NCAR CAM5 climate model. We find that the fast tropospheric cloud adjustments especially over land and stratospheric warming in the first four months cause the slope of the regression between the TOA net radiative fluxes and surface temperature to be steeper in the solar forcing case. This steeper slope indicates a stronger net negative feedback and hence correspondingly a larger solar forcing than CO 2 forcing for the same equilibrium surface warming. Evidence is provided that rapid land surface warming in the first four months sets up a land-sea contrast that markedly affects radiative forcing and the climate feedback parameter over this period. We also confirm the robustness of our results using simulations from the Hadley Centre climate model. Our study has important implications for estimating the magnitude of climate change caused by volcanic eruptions, solar geoengineering and past climate changes caused by change in solar irradiance such as Maunder minimum. (letter)
Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watterson, Ian G.

2007-01-01

Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections
GlobTemperature

Science.gov (United States)

Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John; Bruniquel, Jerome; Sardou, Olivier; Trigo, Isabel; Merchant, Chris; Bulgin, Claire; Goettsche, Frank; Olesen, Folke; Prigent, Catherine; Pinnock, Simon

2014-05-01

Land surface temperature (LST) is the mean radiative skin temperature of an area of land resulting from the mean balance of solar heating and land-atmosphere cooling fluxes. It is a basic determinant of the terrestrial thermal behaviour, as it controls the effective radiating temperature of the Earth's surface. The sensitivity of LST to soil moisture and vegetation cover means it is an important component in numerous applications. For instance, LST is a key boundary condition in land surface models, which determine the surface to atmosphere fluxes of heat, water and carbon; thus influencing cloud cover, precipitation and atmospheric chemistry predictions within General Circulation Models. Changes in land-surface cover can affect global climate, and also can be identified by changes in their surface temperatures. With the demand of LST data from Earth Observation currently experiencing considerable growth it is important that the users of this data are appropriately engaged by the LST community. The GlobTemperature project under the Data User Element of ESA's 4th Earth Observation Envelope Programme (2013-2017) aims to promote the wider uptake of global-scale satellite LST by the research and operational user communities. As such, the programme of work is focussed on achieving some innovative milestones for LST data which include: detailed global merged geostationary (GEO) and low earth orbit (LEO) data sets with estimates of both clear-sky and under-cloud LST; a first Climate Data Record for LST for the ATSR series of instruments; and the provision of a globally representative and consistent in-situ validation and intercomparison matchup database. Furthermore, the strength of such a venture lies in the coherence and openness of the interactions with the LST and user communities. For instance: detailed user input into the specifications and subsequent testing of the LST data sets; sustained access to data in a user-friendly manner through common data formats; and
Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Compton J.

2007-01-01

The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.
GHRSST Level 2P Global 1m Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-B satellite produced by NAVO (GDS version 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...
Estimativa da produtividade de arroz irrigado em função da radiação solar global e da temperatura mínima do ar Rice yield estimates based on global solar radiation and minimum air temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvio Steinmetz

2013-02-01

temperature using procedures of linear simple and multiple regression. A field experiment was conducted at the district of Capão do Leão, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, during three growing seasons. Six sowing dates and eight cultivars of distinct groups of cycle lengths were used in each crop season. Ten main culms of each cultivar were marked to determine the main stages of development. The dependent variable (Y was the average grain yield of four repetitions of each sowing date and the independent variables were: the average of global solar radiation (X¹, the average minimum air temperature (X² and the average of squared minimum air temperature (X³, computed for four periods of plant development for global solar radiation and for three periods for minimum air temperature. Most of the variables, when tested isolately, presented a significant linear relationship with grain yield, but the coefficients of determination (r² were higher in multiple linear regressions involving the main variables. Regression models that use global solar radiation and minimum air temperature in distinct physiological periods of plant development as predicting variables, are suitable for estimating grain yields of irrigated rice.
Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.

Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano

2015-04-02

One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.
A new global grid model for the determination of atmospheric weighted mean temperature in GPS precipitable water vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Liangke; Jiang, Weiping; Liu, Lilong; Chen, Hua; Ye, Shirong

2018-05-01

In ground-based global positioning system (GPS) meteorology, atmospheric weighted mean temperature, T_m , plays a very important role in the progress of retrieving precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the zenith wet delay of the GPS. Generally, most of the existing T_m models only take either latitude or altitude into account in modeling. However, a great number of studies have shown that T_m is highly correlated with both latitude and altitude. In this study, a new global grid empirical T_m model, named as GGTm, was established by a sliding window algorithm using global gridded T_m data over an 8-year period from 2007 to 2014 provided by TU Vienna, where both latitude and altitude variations are considered in modeling. And the performance of GGTm was assessed by comparing with the Bevis formula and the GPT2w model, where the high-precision global gridded T_m data as provided by TU Vienna and the radiosonde data from 2015 are used as reference values. The results show the significant performance of the new GGTm model against other models when compared with gridded T_m data and radiosonde data, especially in the areas with great undulating terrain. Additionally, GGTm has the global mean RMS_{PWV} and RMS_{PWV} /PWV values of 0.26 mm and 1.28%, respectively. The GGTm model, fed only by the day of the year and the station coordinates, could provide a reliable and accurate T_m value, which shows the possible potential application in real-time GPS meteorology, especially for the application of low-latitude areas and western China.
Global Surface Warming Hiatus Analysis Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data were used to conduct the study of the global surface warming hiatus, an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998....
GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GISTEMP dataset is a global 2x2 gridded temperature anomaly dataset. Temperature data is updated around the middle of every month using current data files from...
Potential for reducing air-pollutants while achieving 2 °C global temperature change limit target.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Akashi, Osamu; Fujiwara, Kazuya; Motoki, Yuko; Hibino, Go

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the potential to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 °C global temperature change limit target above pre-industrial levels, by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse[Global]. This study focuses on; 1) estimating mitigation potentials and costs for achieving 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C target scenarios, 2) assessing co-benefits of reducing air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, BC, PM, and 3) analyzing features of sectoral attributions in Annex I and Non-Annex I groups of countries. The carbon tax scenario at 50 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 can reduce GHG emissions more than the 3 °C target scenario, but a higher carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 is required to achieve the 2 °C target scenario. However, there is also a co-benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 60-80% reductions in 2050 from the reference scenario while achieving the 2 °C target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
GHRSST Level 2P Global 1m Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-18 satellite produced by NAVO (GDS versions 1 and 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...
GHRSST Level 2P Global 1m Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-19 satellite produced by NAVO (GDS versions 1 and 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2013-01-01

This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...
Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

2012-08-15

Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)
The global SMOS Level 3 daily soil moisture and brightness temperature maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Al Bitar

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present the multi-orbit (MO surface soil moisture (SM and angle-binned brightness temperature (TB products for the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission based on a new multi-orbit algorithm. The Level 3 algorithm at CATDS (Centre Aval de Traitement des Données SMOS makes use of MO retrieval to enhance the robustness and quality of SM retrievals. The motivation of the approach is to make use of the longer temporal autocorrelation length of the vegetation optical depth (VOD compared to the corresponding SM autocorrelation in order to enhance the retrievals when an acquisition occurs at the border of the swath. The retrieval algorithm is implemented in a unique operational processor delivering multiple parameters (e.g. SM and VOD using multi-angular dual-polarisation TB from MO. A subsidiary angle-binned TB product is provided. In this study the Level 3 TB V310 product is showcased and compared to SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive TB. The Level 3 SM V300 product is compared to the single-orbit (SO retrievals from the Level 2 SM processor from ESA with aligned configuration. The advantages and drawbacks of the Level 3 SM product (L3SM are discussed. The comparison is done on a global scale between the two datasets and on the local scale with respect to in situ data from AMMA-CATCH and USDA ARS Watershed networks. The results obtained from the global analysis show that the MO implementation enhances the number of retrievals: up to 9 % over certain areas. The comparison with the in situ data shows that the increase in the number of retrievals does not come with a decrease in quality, but rather at the expense of an increased time lag in product availability from 6 h to 3.5 days, which can be a limiting factor for applications like flood forecast but reasonable for drought monitoring and climate change studies. The SMOS L3 soil moisture and L3 brightness temperature products are delivered using an
GHRSST Level 2P Global skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on the Metop-A satellite (GDS V2) produced by OSI SAF (GDS version 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global 1 km Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated...
The Southern Oscillation and northern hemisphere temperature variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ropelewski, C.F.; Halpert, M.S.

1990-01-01

The Southern Oscillation (SO) is the best defined and understood mode of interannual climate variability. The extreme phases of the SO have been identified with global-scale variations in the atmosphere/ocean circulation system and with the modulation of monsoon precipitation on the global scale. While SO-related precipitation has been the subject of several studies, the magnitude of the SO-related temperature variability on the global scale has not been well documented. In this paper the authors provide an estimate of the SO-related temperature variability in the context of monitoring global warming related to the increase in greenhouse gases. This analysis suggested that traditional time series of hemispheric and global temperature anomalies for the calendar year may confuse interannual temperature variability associated with the SO and perceived climate trend. Analyses based on calendar-year data are likely to split the effects of the SO-related temperature variability over two years. The Northern Hemisphere cold season (october through March) time series may be more appropriate to separate the SO-related effects on the hemispheric temperature from other modes of variability. mean interannual temperature anomaly differences associated with the extremes of the So are estimated to be 0.2 C for the October-to-March season in the Northern Hemisphere. In areas directly linked to the SO, the mean interannual differences amount to over 0.5 C. The So cannot account for all the variability in the hemispheric times series of surface temperature estimates, but the SO signal must be properly accounted for if these time series are to be understood
Up-to-date probabilistic temperature climatologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krakauer, Nir Y; Devineni, Naresh

2015-01-01

With ongoing global warming, climatologies based on average past temperatures are increasingly recognized as imperfect guides for current conditions, yet there is no consensus on alternatives. Here, we compare several approaches to deriving updated expected values of monthly mean temperatures, including moving average, exponentially weighted moving average, and piecewise linear regression. We go beyond most previous work by presenting updated climate normals as probability distributions rather than only point estimates, enabling estimation of the changing likelihood of hot and cold extremes. We show that there is a trade-off between bias and variance in these approaches, but that bias can be mitigated by an additive correction based on a global average temperature series, which has much less interannual variability than a single-station series. Using thousands of monthly temperature time series from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), we find that the exponentially weighted moving average with a timescale of 15 years and global bias correction has good overall performance in hindcasting temperatures over the last 30 years (1984–2013) compared with the other methods tested. Our results suggest that over the last 30 years, the likelihood of extremely hot months (above the 99th percentile of the temperature probability distribution as of the early 1980s) has increased more than fourfold across the GHCN stations, whereas the likelihood of very cold months (under the 1st percentile) has decreased by over two-thirds. (letter)
Global thermal models of the lithosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

2017-12-01

Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations
Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly Temperature, Version 4 (BETA)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Only available as BETA release. The GHCN-Monthly Temperature Version 4 dataset consists of monthly mean temperature - both raw and bias corrected data. A full...
Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pryor, Sara C.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; Schoof, Justin T.

2017-12-01

The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures (T) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θe) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θe are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity (Q) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights (Z), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture (text">SM). text">SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θe over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of text">SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θe. Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T, synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and text">SM). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θe, where
Temperature Effect in Secondary Cosmic Rays (MUONS) Observed at the Ground: Analysis of the Global MUON Detector Network Data

Science.gov (United States)

de Mendonça, R. R. S.; Braga, C. R.; Echer, E.; Dal Lago, A.; Munakata, K.; Kuwabara, T.; Kozai, M.; Kato, C.; Rockenbach, M.; Schuch, N. J.; Jassar, H. K. Al; Sharma, M. M.; Tokumaru, M.; Duldig, M. L.; Humble, J. E.; Evenson, P.; Sabbah, I.

2016-10-01

The analysis of cosmic ray intensity variation seen by muon detectors at Earth's surface can help us to understand astrophysical, solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic phenomena. However, before comparing cosmic ray intensity variations with extraterrestrial phenomena, it is necessary to take into account atmospheric effects such as the temperature effect. In this work, we analyzed this effect on the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), which is composed of four ground-based detectors, two in the northern hemisphere and two in the southern hemisphere. In general, we found a higher temperature influence on detectors located in the northern hemisphere. Besides that, we noticed that the seasonal temperature variation observed at the ground and at the altitude of maximum muon production are in antiphase for all GMDN locations (low-latitude regions). In this way, contrary to what is expected in high-latitude regions, the ground muon intensity decrease occurring during summertime would be related to both parts of the temperature effect (the negative and the positive). We analyzed several methods to describe the temperature effect on cosmic ray intensity. We found that the mass weighted method is the one that best reproduces the seasonal cosmic ray variation observed by the GMDN detectors and allows the highest correlation with long-term variation of the cosmic ray intensity seen by neutron monitors.
Global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Crabbe, M James C

2007-08-01

Data on colony growth of the branching coral Acropora palmata from fringing reefs off Discovery Bay on the north coast of Jamaica have been obtained over the period 2002-2007 using underwater photography and image analysis by both SCUBA and remotely using an ROV incorporating twin lasers. Growth modelling shows that while logarithmic growth is an approximate model for growth, a 3:3 rational polynomial function provides a significantly better fit to growth data for this coral species. Over the period 2002-2007, involving several cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) change, the rate of growth of A. palmata was largely proportional to rate of change of SST, with R(2)=0.935. These results have implications for the influence of global warming and climate change on coral reef ecosystems.
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

2018-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.
Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Fujiwara

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.

Science.gov (United States)

Balogun, Emmanuel O; Nok, Andrew J; Kita, Kiyoshi

2016-01-01

Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.
Toward Spectroscopically Detecting the Global Latitudinal Temperature Variation on the Solar Surface

Science.gov (United States)

Takeda, Y.; UeNo, S.

2017-09-01

A very slight rotation-induced latitudinal temperature variation (presumably on the order of several kelvin) on the solar surface is theoretically expected. While recent high-precision solar brightness observations reported its detection, confirmation by an alternative approach using the strengths of spectral lines is desirable, for which reducing the noise due to random fluctuation caused by atmospheric inhomogeneity is critical. Toward this difficult task, we carried out a pilot study of spectroscopically investigating the relative variation of temperature (T) at a number of points in the solar circumference region near to the limb (where latitude dependence should be detectable, if any exists) based on the equivalent widths (W) of 28 selected lines in the 5367 - 5393 Å and 6075 - 6100 Å regions. We paid special attention to i) clarifying which types of lines should be employed and ii) how much precision is attainable in practice. We found that lines with strong T-sensitivity (|log W/log T|) should be used and that very weak lines should be avoided because they inevitably suffer strong relative fluctuations (Δ W/W). Our analysis revealed that a precision of Δ T/T ≈ 0.003 (corresponding to ≈ 15 K) can be achieved at best by a spectral line with comparatively large |log W/log T|, although this can possibly be further improved When a number of lines are used all together. Accordingly, if many such favorable lines could be measured with subpercent precision of Δ W/W and by averaging the resulting Δ T/T from each line, the random noise would eventually be reduced to ≲ 1 K and detection of a very subtle amount of global T-gradient might be possible.
Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

2018-05-01

Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.
GHRSST Level 2P Global 1m Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-A satellite produced by NAVO (GDS versions 1 and 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...
Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.
Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

2013-01-01

Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming
GHRSST Level 3P Global Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-A satellite (GDS version 1)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Level 3 Group for HIgh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) dataset from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-A platform...
Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

2009-01-01

Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...
Gravitational effects of global strings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aryal, M.; Everett, A.E.

1986-01-01

We have obtained the gravitational field, in the weak-field approximation, of cosmic strings formed in a phase transition in which a global symmetry is broken (global strings). The effect of this field on light rays passing a global string is found, and the resulting formation of double images and production of discontinuities in the microwave background temperature compared with the corresponding results for gauge strings. There are some differences in the case of global strings, reflecting the fact that the space surrounding such strings is not purely conical. However, the differences between gauge and global strings with masses suitable to explain galaxy formation are small, and the task of distinguishing them observationally appears difficult at best
Response of temperature and density profiles to heat deposition profile and its impact on global scaling in LHD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamada, H.; Murakami, S.; Yamazaki, K.

2002-01-01

Energy confinement and heat transport of net current-free NBI-heated plasmas in the Large Helical Device (LHD) are discussed with an emphasis on density dependence. Although the apparent density dependence of the energy confinement time has been demonstrated in a wide parameter range in LHD, the loss of this dependence has been observed in the high density regime under the specific condition. Broad heat deposition due to off-axis alignment and shallow penetration of neutral beams degrades the global energy confinement while the local heat transport maintains a clear temperature dependence lying between Bohm and gyro-Bohm characteristics. The central heat deposition inclines towards an intrinsic density dependence like τ E ∝(n-bar e /P) 0.6 from the saturated state. The broadening of the temperature profile due to the broad heat deposition profile contrasts with the invariant property which has observed widely as profile consistency and stiffness in tokamak experiments. (author)
Response of temperature and density profiles to heat deposition profile and its impact on global scaling in LHD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamada, H.; Murakami, S.; Yamazaki, K.

2003-01-01

Energy confinement and heat transport of net current-free NBI-heated plasmas in the Large Helical Device (LHD) are discussed with an emphasis on density dependence. Although the apparent density dependence of the energy confinement time has been demonstrated in a wide parameter range in LHD, the loss of this dependence has been observed in the high density regime under the specific condition. Broad heat deposition due to off-axis alignment and shallow penetration of neutral beams degrades the global energy confinement while the local heat transport maintains a clear temperature dependence lying between Bohm and gyro-Bohm characteristics. The central heat deposition inclines towards an intrinsic density dependence like τ E ∝(n-bars e /P) 0.6 from the saturated state. The broadening of the temperature profile due to the broad heat deposition profile contrasts with the invariant property which has observed widely as profile consistency and stiffness in tokamak experiments. (author)
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

2014-01-01

Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)
Global Monitoring RSEM System for Crop Production by Incorporating Satellite-based Photosynthesis Rates and Anomaly Data of Sea Surface Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, D.; Sakuma, H.

2014-12-01

The first author has been developing RSEM crop-monitoring system using satellite-based assessment of photosynthesis, incorporating meteorological conditions. Crop production comprises of several stages and plural mechanisms based on leaf photosynthesis, surface energy balance, and the maturing of grains after fixation of CO2, along with water exchange through soil vegetation-atmosphere transfer. Grain production in prime countries appears to be randomly perturbed regionally and globally. Weather for crop plants reflects turbulent phenomena of convective and advection flows in atmosphere and surface boundary layer. It has been difficult for scientists to simulate and forecast weather correctly for sufficiently long terms to crop harvesting. However, severely poor harvests related to continental events must originate from a consistent mechanism of abnormal energetic flow in the atmosphere through both land and oceans. It should be remembered that oceans have more than 100 times of energy storage compared to atmosphere and ocean currents represent gigantic energy flows, strongly affecting climate. Anomalies of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), globally known as El Niño, Indian Ocean dipole, and Atlantic Niño etc., affect the seasonal climate on a continental scale. The authors aim to combine monitoring and seasonal forecasting, considering such mechanisms through land-ocean biosphere transfer. The present system produces assessments for all continents, specifically monitoring agricultural fields of main crops. Historical regions of poor and good harvests are compared with distributions of SST anomalies, which are provided by NASA GSFC. Those comparisons fairly suggest that the Worst harvest in 1993 and the Best in 1994 relate to the offshore distribution of low temperature anomalies and high gaps in ocean surface temperatures. However, high-temperature anomalies supported good harvests because of sufficient solar radiation for photosynthesis, and poor harvests because
The land/ocean temperature contrast in natural variability

OpenAIRE

Tyrrell, Nicholas Luke

2017-01-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures (T_land) warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/ocean warming temperature contrast. This land/ocean contrast is not only due to the different heat capacities of the land and ocean as it exists for transient and equilibrium scenarios. Similarly, the interannual variability of T_land is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/ocean ...
Parameter extraction using global particle swarm optimization approach and the influence of polymer processing temperature on the solar cell parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Singh, A.; Dhar, A.

2017-08-01

The accurate estimation of the photovoltaic parameters is fundamental to gain an insight of the physical processes occurring inside a photovoltaic device and thereby to optimize its design, fabrication processes, and quality. A simulative approach of accurately determining the device parameters is crucial for cell array and module simulation when applied in practical on-field applications. In this work, we have developed a global particle swarm optimization (GPSO) approach to estimate the different solar cell parameters viz., ideality factor (η), short circuit current (Isc), open circuit voltage (Voc), shunt resistant (Rsh), and series resistance (Rs) with wide a search range of over ±100 % for each model parameter. After validating the accurateness and global search power of the proposed approach with synthetic and noisy data, we applied the technique to the extract the PV parameters of ZnO/PCDTBT based hybrid solar cells (HSCs) prepared under different annealing conditions. Further, we examine the variation of extracted model parameters to unveil the physical processes occurring when different annealing temperatures are employed during the device fabrication and establish the role of improved charge transport in polymer films from independent FET measurements. The evolution of surface morphology, optical absorption, and chemical compositional behaviour of PCDTBT co-polymer films as a function of processing temperature has also been captured in the study and correlated with the findings from the PV parameters extracted using GPSO approach.
Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

2012-09-01

Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.
GHRSST Level 2P 1 m Depth Global Sea Surface Temperature from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite (GDS version 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on retrievals from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)....
Can the Paris Agreement stop global warming?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Howalt Owe, Selina; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

in the year 2030 of about 55 Gt Carbon to 40 Gt Carbon. This can be compared to an approximate emission of 35 Gt in 2014 and thus means that a global rise in emission of only 5 Gt Carbon is allowed over the next 15 years Using the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS)model [1] we have investigated...... how large an emission reduction is necessary to keep the global temperatures below these targets.The DCESS model is a low order Earth system box model which includes atmosphere, ocean, ocean sediment, land biosphere and lithosphere components, and using the year 1765 as the preindustriallevel. We have...... examined different emission scenarios and the national commitments and find that even if the Paris Agreement is fulfilled, global temperatures will have increased by 1.5 degree C in 2030, and then only a yearly percentage reduction of 5% or more will be sufficient to keep temperatures below 2 degree C...
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset is a global monthly sea surface temperature analysis derived from the International Comprehensive...

How China’s Options Will Determine Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clifford Singer

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Carbon dioxide emissions, global average temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and surface ocean mixed layer acidity are extrapolated using analyses calibrated against extensive time series data for nine global regions. Extrapolation of historical trends without policy-driven limitations has China responsible for about half of global CO2 emissions by the middle of the twenty-first century. Results are presented for three possible actions taken by China to limit global average temperature increase to levels it considers to be to its advantage: (1 Help develop low-carbon energy technology broadly competitive with unbridled carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels; (2 Entice other countries to join in limiting use of what would otherwise be economically competitive fossil fuels; (3 Apply geo-engineering techniques such as stratospheric sulfur injection to limit global average temperature increase, without a major global reduction in carbon emissions. Taking into account China’s expected influence and approach to limiting the impact of anthropogenic climate change allows for a narrower range of possible outcomes than for a set of scenarios that are not constrained by analysis of likely policy-driven limitations. While China could hold back on implementing geoengineering given a remarkable amount of international cooperation on limiting fossil carbon burning, an outcome where geoengineering is used to delay the perceived need to limit the atmospheric CO2 concentration may be difficult to avoid.
THE TEMPERATURE EFFECT IN SECONDARY COSMIC RAYS (MUONS) OBSERVED AT THE GROUND: ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL MUON DETECTOR NETWORK DATA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Mendonça, R. R. S.; Braga, C. R.; Echer, E.; Dal Lago, A.; Rockenbach, M.; Schuch, N. J. [Space Geophysics Division, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010 (Brazil); Munakata, K.; Kato, C. [Physics Department, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Nagano, 390-8621 (Japan); Kuwabara, T. [Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba City, Chiba 263-8522 (Japan); Kozai, M. [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (ISAS/JAXA), Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Al Jassar, H. K.; Sharma, M. M. [Physics Department, Kuwait University, Kuwait City, 13060 (Kuwait); Tokumaru, M. [Solar Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi, 464-8601 (Japan); Duldig, M. L.; Humble, J. E. [School of Physical Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001 (Australia); Evenson, P. [Bartol Research Institute, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716 (United States); Sabbah, I. [Department of Natural Sciences, College of Health Sciences, Public Authority for Applied Education and Training, Kuwait City, 72853 (Kuwait)

2016-10-20

The analysis of cosmic ray intensity variation seen by muon detectors at Earth's surface can help us to understand astrophysical, solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic phenomena. However, before comparing cosmic ray intensity variations with extraterrestrial phenomena, it is necessary to take into account atmospheric effects such as the temperature effect. In this work, we analyzed this effect on the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), which is composed of four ground-based detectors, two in the northern hemisphere and two in the southern hemisphere. In general, we found a higher temperature influence on detectors located in the northern hemisphere. Besides that, we noticed that the seasonal temperature variation observed at the ground and at the altitude of maximum muon production are in antiphase for all GMDN locations (low-latitude regions). In this way, contrary to what is expected in high-latitude regions, the ground muon intensity decrease occurring during summertime would be related to both parts of the temperature effect (the negative and the positive). We analyzed several methods to describe the temperature effect on cosmic ray intensity. We found that the mass weighted method is the one that best reproduces the seasonal cosmic ray variation observed by the GMDN detectors and allows the highest correlation with long-term variation of the cosmic ray intensity seen by neutron monitors.
THE TEMPERATURE EFFECT IN SECONDARY COSMIC RAYS (MUONS) OBSERVED AT THE GROUND: ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL MUON DETECTOR NETWORK DATA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Mendonça, R. R. S.; Braga, C. R.; Echer, E.; Dal Lago, A.; Rockenbach, M.; Schuch, N. J.; Munakata, K.; Kato, C.; Kuwabara, T.; Kozai, M.; Al Jassar, H. K.; Sharma, M. M.; Tokumaru, M.; Duldig, M. L.; Humble, J. E.; Evenson, P.; Sabbah, I.

2016-01-01

The analysis of cosmic ray intensity variation seen by muon detectors at Earth's surface can help us to understand astrophysical, solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic phenomena. However, before comparing cosmic ray intensity variations with extraterrestrial phenomena, it is necessary to take into account atmospheric effects such as the temperature effect. In this work, we analyzed this effect on the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), which is composed of four ground-based detectors, two in the northern hemisphere and two in the southern hemisphere. In general, we found a higher temperature influence on detectors located in the northern hemisphere. Besides that, we noticed that the seasonal temperature variation observed at the ground and at the altitude of maximum muon production are in antiphase for all GMDN locations (low-latitude regions). In this way, contrary to what is expected in high-latitude regions, the ground muon intensity decrease occurring during summertime would be related to both parts of the temperature effect (the negative and the positive). We analyzed several methods to describe the temperature effect on cosmic ray intensity. We found that the mass weighted method is the one that best reproduces the seasonal cosmic ray variation observed by the GMDN detectors and allows the highest correlation with long-term variation of the cosmic ray intensity seen by neutron monitors.
Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.
The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

2017-12-01

Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.
Global entanglement in XXZ chains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Canosa, N.; Rossignoli, R.

2006-01-01

We examine the thermal entanglement of XXZ-type Heisenberg chains in the presence of a uniform magnetic field along the z axes through the evaluation of the negativity associated with bipartitions of the whole system and subsystems. Limit temperatures for nonzero global negativities are shown to depend on the asymmetry Δ, but not on the uniform field, and can be much higher than those limiting pairwise entanglement. It is also shown that global bipartite entanglement may exist for T>0 even for Δ≥1, i.e., when the system is fully aligned (and hence separable) at T=0, and that the bipartition leading to the highest limit temperature depends on Δ
Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Coffel, Ethan D.; Horton, Radley M.; de Sherbinin, Alex

2018-01-01

As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.
Variability and trends in global drought

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2015-01-01

Monthly precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature (T) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.
The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

2014-01-01

A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)
Global Sea Surface Temperature: A Harmonized Multi-sensor Time-series from Satellite Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Merchant, C. J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents the methods used to obtain a new global sea surface temperature (SST) dataset spanning the early 1980s to the present, intended for use as a climate data record (CDR). The dataset provides skin SST (the fundamental measurement) and an estimate of the daily mean SST at depths compatible with drifting buoys (adjusting for skin and diurnal variability). The depth SST provided enables the CDR to be used with in situ records and centennial-scale SST reconstructions. The new SST timeseries is as independent as possible from in situ observations, and from 1995 onwards is harmonized to an independent satellite reference (namely, SSTs from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (Advanced ATSR)). This maximizes the utility of our new estimates of variability and long-term trends in interrogating previous datasets tied to in situ observations. The new SSTs include full resolution (swath, level 2) data, single-sensor gridded data (level 3, 0.05 degree latitude-longitude grid) and a multi-sensor optimal analysis (level 4, same grid). All product levels are consistent. All SSTs have validated uncertainty estimates attached. The sensors used include all Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers from NOAA-6 onwards and the ATSR series. AVHRR brightness temperatures (BTs) are calculated from counts using a new in-flight re-calibration for each sensor, ultimately linked through to the AATSR BT calibration by a new harmonization technique. Artefacts in AVHRR BTs linked to varying instrument temperature, orbital regime and solar contamination are significantly reduced. These improvements in the AVHRR BTs (level 1) translate into improved cloud detection and SST (level 2). For cloud detection, we use a Bayesian approach for all sensors. For the ATSRs, SSTs are derived with sufficient accuracy and sensitivity using dual-view coefficients. This is not the case for single-view AVHRR observations, for which a physically based retrieval is employed, using a hybrid
Toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus changes under a global warming perspective: Variations in air temperature and soil moisture content

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gonzalez Alcaraz, M.N.; van Gestel, C.A.M.

2016-01-01

This study aimed to assess how the current global warming perspective, with increasing air temperature (20 °C vs. 25 °C) and decreasing soil moisture content (50% vs. 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC), affected the toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus
Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Sally; Goodwin, Philip; Wahl, Thomas; Lowe, Jason; Solan, Martin; Godbold, Jasmin A; Haigh, Ivan D; Lincke, Daniel; Hinkel, Jochen; Wolff, Claudia; Merkens, Jan-Ludolf

2018-05-13

The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.
Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Goodwin, Philip; Wahl, Thomas; Lowe, Jason; Solan, Martin; Godbold, Jasmin A.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Lincke, Daniel; Hinkel, Jochen; Wolff, Claudia; Merkens, Jan-Ludolf

2018-05-01

The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.
Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa V. Alexander

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.
PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

Science.gov (United States)

Cassman, Kenneth G.

2007-03-01

source: faostat.fao.org/site/395/default.aspx. Given this situation, the question of whether global climate change will have a net positive, negative, or negligible impact on crop yields takes on a larger significance because additional hundreds of millions of people could be at risk of hunger and the window of opportunity for mounting an effective response is closing. To answer this question, Lobell and Field use an innovative empirical/geostatistical approach to estimate the impact of increased temperature since 1980 on crop yields—a period when global mean temperature increased ~0.4 °C [2]. For three major crops—maize, wheat, and barley—there was a significant negative response to increased temperature. For all six crops evaluated (also including rice, soybean, and sorghum), the net impact of climate trends on yield since 1980 was negative. While the approach used by Lobell and Field can be questioned on several pointsNote2, the body of their work represents an ambitious global assessment of recent climate impact on crop yields. Most noteworthy is their conclusion that: the combined effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate trends have largely cancelled each other over the past two decades. They contrast their finding with the conclusion of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that CO2 benefits will exceed temperature-related yield reductions up to a 2 °C increase in mean temperature [3]. It should be noted, however, that the IPCC is coming out with a new assessment to be released in April 2007 (www.ipcc.ch/), and it remains to be seen if this conclusion still holds. The purpose here is not to support or challenge the conclusions of either Lobell and Field or the IPCC, but rather to highlight the fact that there are substantive differences between results obtained from geostatistical assessments based on recent climate trends and actual crop yields versus assessments based on results from controlled experiments in growth
Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.
Growth and physiological responses of canola (Brassica napus) to three components of global climate change: temperature, carbon dioxide and drought

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qaderi, M.M.; Kurepin, L.V.; Reid, D.M. [Univ. of Calgary, Dept. of Biological Sciences, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

2006-12-15

Elevated CO{sub 2} appears to be a significant factor in global warming, which will likely lead to drought conditions in many areas. Few studies have considered the interactive effects of higher CO{sub 2}, temperature and drought on plant growth and physiology. We grew canola (Brassica napus cv. 45H72) plants under lower (22/18 deg. C) and higher (28/24 deg. C) temperature regimes in controlled-environment chambers at ambient (370 {mu}mol mol-1) and elevated (740 {mu}mol mol-1) CO{sub 2} levels. One half of the plants were watered to field capacity and the other half at wilting point. In three separate experiments, we determined growth, various physiological parameters and content of abscisic acid (ABA), indole-3-acetic acid and ethylene. Drought-stressed plants grown under higher temperature at ambient CO{sub 2} had decreased stem height and diameter, leaf number and area, dry matter, leaf area ratio, shoot/root weight ratio, net CO{sub 2} assimilation and chlorophyll fluorescence. However, these plants had increased specific leaf weight, leaf weight ratio and chlorophyll concentration. Elevated CO{sub 2} generally had the opposite effect. and partially reversed the inhibitory effects of higher temperature and drought on leaf dry weight accumulation. This study showed that higher temperature and drought inhibit many processes but elevated CO{sub 2} partially mitigate some adverse effects. As expected, drought stress increased ABA but higher temperature inhibited the ability of plants to produce ABA in response to drought. (au)
Global gyrokinetic simulation of tokamak transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Furnish, G.; Horton, W.; Kishimoto, Y.; LeBrun, M.J.; Tajima, T.

1998-10-01

A kinetic simulation code based on the gyrokinetic ion dynamics in global general metric (including a tokamak with circular or noncircular cross-section) has been developed. This gyrokinetic simulation is capable of examining the global and semi-global driftwave structures and their associated transport in a tokamak plasma. The authors investigate the property of the ion temperature gradient (ITG) or η i (η i ≡ ∂ ell nT i /∂ ell n n i ) driven drift waves in a tokamak plasma. The emergent semi-global drift wave modes give rise to thermal transport characterized by the Bohm scaling
Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B; Baulch, Helen M; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C; Rusak, James A; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R Iestyn

2017-03-06

Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (T w -T a ) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (Q H ). If Q H is directed upward, corresponding to positive T w -T a , it can enhance CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative T w -T a across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward Q H ), with T w -T a becoming increasingly negative with increasing T a . Further examination of T w -T a using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that T w -T a is linearly related to T a . Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative T w -T a with increasing annual mean T a since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative T w -T a , thereby reducing CO 2 and CH 4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.

Contribution of solar radiation to decadal temperature variability over land.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kaicun; Dickinson, Robert E

2013-09-10

Global air temperature has become the primary metric for judging global climate change. The variability of global temperature on a decadal timescale is still poorly understood. This paper examines further one suggested hypothesis, that variations in solar radiation reaching the surface (Rs) have caused much of the observed decadal temperature variability. Because Rs only heats air during the day, its variability is plausibly related to the variability of diurnal temperature range (daily maximum temperature minus its minimum). We show that the variability of diurnal temperature range is consistent with the variability of Rs at timescales from monthly to decadal. This paper uses long comprehensive datasets for diurnal temperature range to establish what has been the contribution of Rs to decadal temperature variability. It shows that Rs over land globally peaked in the 1930s, substantially decreased from the 1940s to the 1970s, and changed little after that. Reduction of Rs caused a reduction of more than 0.2 °C in mean temperature during May to October from the 1940s through the 1970s, and a reduction of nearly 0.2 °C in mean air temperature during November to April from the 1960s through the 1970s. This cooling accounts in part for the near-constant temperature from the 1930s into the 1970s. Since then, neither the rapid increase in temperature from the 1970s through the 1990s nor the slowdown of warming in the early twenty-first century appear to be significantly related to changes of Rs.
Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris": an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

2018-02-01

In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical) trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend-dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.
Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.
Long-term changes in sea surface temperatures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, D.E.

1994-01-01

Historical observations of sea surface temperature since 1856 have been improved by applying corrections to compensate for the predominant use of uninsulated or partly insulated buckets until the Second World War. There are large gaps in coverage in the late nineteenth century and around the two world wars, but a range of statistical techniques suggest that these gaps do not severely prejudice estimates of global and regional climatic change. Nonetheless, to improve the analysis on smaller scales, many unused historical data are to be digitized and incorporated. For recent years, satellite-based sea surface temperatures have improved the coverage, after adjustments for their biases relative to in situ data. An initial version of a nominally globally complete sea ice and interpolated sea surface temperature data set, beginning in 1871, has been created for use in numerical simulations of recent climate. Long time series of corrected regional, hemispheric, and global sea surface temperatures are mostly consistent with corresponding night marine air temperature series, and confirm the regionally specific climatic changes portrayed in the Scientific Assessments of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The observations also show an El Nino-like oscillation on bidecadal and longer time scales
From local perception to global perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, Flavio; Stocker, Thomas F.

2015-08-01

Recent sociological studies show that over short time periods the large day-to-day, month-to-month or year-to-year variations in weather at a specific location can influence and potentially bias our perception of climate change, a more long-term and global phenomenon. By weighting local temperature anomalies with the number of people that experience them and considering longer time periods, we illustrate that the share of the world population exposed to warmer-than-normal temperatures has steadily increased during the past few decades. Therefore, warming is experienced by an increasing number of individuals, counter to what might be simply inferred from global mean temperature anomalies. This behaviour is well-captured by current climate models, offering an opportunity to increase confidence in future projections of climate change irrespective of the personal local perception of weather.
Long range global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

1995-01-01

This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic
Symmetric scaling properties in global surface air temperature anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Varotsos, Costas A.; Efstathiou, Maria N.

2015-08-01

We have recently suggested "long-term memory" or internal long-range correlation within the time-series of land-surface air temperature (LSAT) anomalies in both hemispheres. For example, an increasing trend in the LSAT anomalies is followed by another one at a different time in a power-law fashion. However, our previous research was mainly focused on the overall long-term persistence, while in the present study, the upward and downward scaling dynamics of the LSAT anomalies are analysed, separately. Our results show that no significant fluctuation differences were found between the increments and decrements in LSAT anomalies, over the whole Earth and over each hemisphere, individually. On the contrary, the combination of land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies seemed to cause a departure from symmetry and the increments in the land and sea surface temperature anomalies appear to be more persistent than the decrements.
Global Warming: A Myth?

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

There could be many unseen factors influencing temperature fluctuations in the .... may change when climate changes and this may change the level sampled by MSUs. So unlike ... b) A global decrease in low clouds by 8% c) A decrease in ...
Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.
Assessing the transferability of support vector machine model for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Ji-Long; Li, Guo-Sheng; Xiao, Bei-Bei; Wen, Zhao-Fei; Lv, Ming-Quan; Chen, Chun-Di; Jiang, Yi; Wang, Xiao-Xiao; Wu, Sheng-Jun

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Transferability of SVM in estimation of solar radiation is investigated. • Radiation at estimation site could be well estimated by SVM developed at source site. • A strategy for selecting a suitable source site is presented. • SVM accuracy is affected by distance and temperature difference between two sites. • RMSE of SVM shows logarithm or linearly relationship with altitude of source site. - Abstract: Exploring novel methods for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature has been being a focus in many studies. This paper evaluates the transferability of support vector machines (SVM) for estimation of solar radiation in subtropical zone in China. Results suggest that solar radiation at one site (estimation site) could be well estimated by SVM model developed at another site (source site). The accuracy of estimation is affected by the distance and temperature difference between two sites, and altitude of source site. Higher correlations between RMSE of SVM and distance, and temperature differences are observed in northeastern region, increasing the reliability and confidence of SVM model developed at nearby stations. While lower correlations between RMSE and distance, and temperature differences are observed in southwest plateau region. When the altitude of estimation site is lower than 1200 m, RMSE show logarithm relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are lower than that of estimation site. Otherwise, RMSE show linearly relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are higher than 200 m but lower than that of the estimation site. This result suggests that solar radiation could be also estimated using SVM model developed at the site with similar but lower altitude. Based on these results, a strategy that takes into account the climatic conditions, topography, distance, and altitude for selecting a suitable source site is presented. The findings can guide and ease the appropriate choice of
An Analysis of Historical Global Warming and Social Engagement

OpenAIRE

Train, Joseph; Roizenman, David; Damiani, Seth; Rochwerg, Ronny

2018-01-01

The goal of this paper is to determine whether there is a correlation between awareness of global warming, and where global warming occurs. This theory is carried out by analyzing maps containing various forms of data that have to do with global warming, such as precipitation and surface temperature, and comparing it with a map of engagement from tweets which mention global warming. This paper found that there is no solid correlation between mentioning global warming in tweets and global warm...
Global warming and climate change: control methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

2008-01-01

This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere
How warm days increase belief in global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.
GODAE, SFCOBS - Surface Temperature Observations, 1998-present

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — GODAE, SFCOBS - Surface Temperature Observations: Ship, fixed/drifting buoy, and CMAN in-situ surface temperature. Global Telecommunication System (GTS) Data. The...
Coping With Global Warming

OpenAIRE

Jan-Erik Lane

2015-01-01

The process of globalization that has framed developments in the societies on Planet Earth the last decades will be supplanted by the climate change process, which no country can evade. It amounts to a set of giant forces shaping the environment, the economies and the politics of the world. It is somehow believed that the process of change can be controlled by halting the increase in greenhouse gases so that average global temperature would only augment by 2 degrees. This is a dire illusion, ...
Prenatal temperature shocks reduce cooperation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duchoslav, Jan

2017-01-01

Climate change has not only led to a sustained rise in mean global temperature over the past decades, but also increased the frequency of extreme weather events. This paper explores the effect of temperature shocks in utero on later-life taste for cooperation. Using historical climate data combined
Species-specific vulnerability of Arctic copepods to oil contamination and global warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dinh, Khuong Van; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

Arctic ecosystems are predicted to have more severe effects from global warming as during the last decades the temperatures have increased in this region at a rate of 2-4 times higher than the global average. In addition, oil exploitation and shipping activities in the Arctic are predicted...... to increase under global warming as the result of the retreat of sea ice, posing the risk of oil contamination. It is poorly known how cold adapted copepods in the Arctic deal with the combined effects of global warming and oil exposure. To address this, we exposed females of two copepods species Calanus...... of temperatures. Notably, exposure to high pyrene resulted in ca. 70% of mortality in C. finmarchicus, the species with North Atlantic Origin, that was two times higher than the mortality observed for C. glacialis, the true Arctic species. These results suggest that extreme temperature under global warming...
Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

Science.gov (United States)

Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically
Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have
Some coolness concerning global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lindzen, Richard S.

1990-01-01

The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.

The sensitivity of the atmospheric branch of the global water cycle to temperature fluctuations at synoptic to decadal time-scales in different satellite- and model-based products

Science.gov (United States)

Nogueira, Miguel

2018-02-01

Spectral analysis of global-mean precipitation, P, evaporation, E, precipitable water, W, and surface temperature, Ts, revealed significant variability from sub-daily to multi-decadal time-scales, superposed on high-amplitude diurnal and yearly peaks. Two distinct regimes emerged from a transition in the spectral exponents, β. The weather regime covering time-scales 1-2 years, while at time-scales global-ocean and full-globe averages, ρDCCA showed large spread of the C-C importance for P and E variability amongst different datasets at multi-year time-scales, ranging from negligible (governing mechanisms.
Does Carbon Dioxide Predict Temperature?

OpenAIRE

Mytty, Tuukka

2013-01-01

Does carbon dioxide predict temperature? No it does not, in the time period of 1880-2004 with the carbon dioxide and temperature data used in this thesis. According to the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) carbon dioxide is the most important factor in raising the global temperature. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that carbon dioxide truly predicts temperature. Because this paper uses observational data it has to be kept in mind that no causality interpretation can be ma...
Local temperature in quantum thermal states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia-Saez, Artur; Ferraro, Alessandro; Acin, Antonio

2009-01-01

We consider blocks of quantum spins in a chain at thermal equilibrium, focusing on their properties from a thermodynamical perspective. In a classical system the temperature behaves as an intensive magnitude, above a certain block size, regardless of the actual value of the temperature itself. However, a deviation from this behavior is expected in quantum systems. In particular, we see that under some conditions the description of the blocks as thermal states with the same global temperature as the whole chain fails. We analyze this issue by employing the quantum fidelity as a figure of merit, singling out in detail the departure from the classical behavior. As it may be expected, we see that quantum features are more prominent at low temperatures and are affected by the presence of zero-temperature quantum phase transitions. Interestingly, we show that the blocks can be considered indeed as thermal states with a high fidelity, provided an effective local temperature is properly identified. Such a result may originate from typical properties of reduced subsystems of energy-constrained Hilbert spaces. Finally, the relation between local and global temperatures is analyzed as a function of the size of the blocks and the system parameters.
CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

Science.gov (United States)

Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

2015-06-26

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Population and trends in the global mean temperature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tol, Richard S.J.

2017-01-01

The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population
Effects of CO2 and temperature on tritrophic interactions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee A Dyer

Full Text Available There has been a significant increase in studies of how global change parameters affect interacting species or entire communities, yet the combined or interactive effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and associated increases in global mean temperatures on chemically mediated trophic interactions are mostly unknown. Thus, predictions of climate-induced changes on plant-insect interactions are still based primarily on studies of individual species, individual global change parameters, pairwise interactions, or parameters that summarize communities. A clear understanding of community response to global change will only emerge from studies that examine effects of multiple variables on biotic interactions. We examined the effects of increased CO2 and temperature on simple laboratory communities of interacting alfalfa, chemical defense, armyworm caterpillars, and parasitoid wasps. Higher temperatures and CO2 caused decreased plant quality, decreased caterpillar development times, developmental asynchrony between caterpillars and wasps, and complete wasp mortality. The effects measured here, along with other effects of global change on natural enemies suggest that biological control and other top-down effects of insect predators will decline over the coming decades.
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

OpenAIRE

Dr. Basanti Jain

2017-01-01

The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...
Global Warming: Physics and Facts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

1992-01-01

This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment
Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific...... attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies......, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation...
Global convergence in leaf respiration from estimates of thermal acclimation across time and space.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanderwel, Mark C; Slot, Martijn; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Reich, Peter B; Kattge, Jens; Atkin, Owen K; Bloomfield, Keith J; Tjoelker, Mark G; Kitajima, Kaoru

2015-09-01

Recent compilations of experimental and observational data have documented global temperature-dependent patterns of variation in leaf dark respiration (R), but it remains unclear whether local adjustments in respiration over time (through thermal acclimation) are consistent with the patterns in R found across geographical temperature gradients. We integrated results from two global empirical syntheses into a simple temperature-dependent respiration framework to compare the measured effects of respiration acclimation-over-time and variation-across-space to one another, and to a null model in which acclimation is ignored. Using these models, we projected the influence of thermal acclimation on: seasonal variation in R; spatial variation in mean annual R across a global temperature gradient; and future increases in R under climate change. The measured strength of acclimation-over-time produces differences in annual R across spatial temperature gradients that agree well with global variation-across-space. Our models further project that acclimation effects could potentially halve increases in R (compared with the null model) as the climate warms over the 21st Century. Convergence in global temperature-dependent patterns of R indicates that physiological adjustments arising from thermal acclimation are capable of explaining observed variation in leaf respiration at ambient growth temperatures across the globe. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.
Hot stuff. Global warming as a giant trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brunstad, Bjoern

2007-01-01

The article presents various aspects of global warming with focus on meteorological data, global discharges, estimated surface temperature increments, ocean level elevations and net warming effects of various human activities. The consequences for the economic and social developments are discussed. Some action possibilities are mentioned. (tk)
Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming conditions by statistical downscaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

2008-01-01

For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector
Global warming : a guide to the science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.L.; Robinson, A.B.; Robinson, Z.W.

2001-01-01

This guide dispels the popular hypothesis that increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from increased industrial activity have caused global warming. The report suggests that there is no evidence of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming and that temperature changes over the last 100 years has been due mostly to natural phenomena. The global temperature has increased by about 0.5 to 0.6 degrees C in the past 100 years, and this, before most of the greenhouse gases were added to the air by human activities such as burning of fossil fuels. The initial major rise in temperature was in 1940, before the rise in carbon dioxide levels, therefore, it was suggested that this warming must have been natural in origin. Computer based simulations of the climate system forecast disastrous rises in global temperature. But it was argued that current climate models are not accurate in forecasting future climate change because it is not possible to isolate the effect of an increased concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate because about 5 million different variables have to be considered with all their important impacts and interactions. Science indicates that at most, a little warming will occur and certainly better plant grown which should be of great benefit to mankind. It was concluded that the human condition can be improved through unconstrained access to energy, but use of energy may also produce local unwanted pollutants as a by product. The sources of true environmental pollution can be mitigated based on rational considerations of the risks of pollutants and benefits of energy use. refs., figs
Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

2001-01-01

Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown on-board sequential, sun-synchronous, polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by the satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help the onboard warm black body temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically weighted global mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid-troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 K per decade (with an uncertainty of 0.05 K per decade) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite deuced result.
Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

2017-10-01

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.
Constraints of fossil fuels depletion on global warming projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiari, Luca; Zecca, Antonio

2011-01-01

A scientific debate is in progress about the intersection of climate change with the new field of fossil fuels depletion geology. Here, new projections of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and global-mean temperature change are presented, should fossil fuels be exploited at a rate limited by geological availability only. The present work starts from the projections of fossil energy use, as obtained from ten independent sources. From such projections an upper bound, a lower bound and an ensemble mean profile for fossil CO 2 emissions until 2200 are derived. Using the coupled gas-cycle/climate model MAGICC, the corresponding climatic projections out to 2200 are obtained. We find that CO 2 concentration might increase up to about 480 ppm (445-540 ppm), while the global-mean temperature increase w.r.t. 2000 might reach 1.2 deg. C (0.9-1.6 deg. C). However, future improvements of fossil fuels recovery and discoveries of new resources might lead to higher emissions; hence our climatic projections are likely to be underestimated. In the absence of actions of emissions reduction, a level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system might be already experienced toward the middle of the 21st century, despite the constraints imposed by the exhaustion of fossil fuels. - Highlights: → CO 2 and global temperature are projected under fossil fuels exhaustion scenarios. → Temperature is projected to reach a minimum of 2 deg. C above pre-industrial. → Temperature projections are possibly lower than the IPCC ones. → Fossil fuels exhaustion will not avoid dangerous global warming.
Constraints of fossil fuels depletion on global warming projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chiari, Luca, E-mail: chiari@science.unitn.it [Department of Physics, University of Trento, Via Sommarive 14, 38123 Povo (Italy); Zecca, Antonio, E-mail: zecca@science.unitn.it [Department of Physics, University of Trento, Via Sommarive 14, 38123 Povo (Italy)

2011-09-15

A scientific debate is in progress about the intersection of climate change with the new field of fossil fuels depletion geology. Here, new projections of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and global-mean temperature change are presented, should fossil fuels be exploited at a rate limited by geological availability only. The present work starts from the projections of fossil energy use, as obtained from ten independent sources. From such projections an upper bound, a lower bound and an ensemble mean profile for fossil CO{sub 2} emissions until 2200 are derived. Using the coupled gas-cycle/climate model MAGICC, the corresponding climatic projections out to 2200 are obtained. We find that CO{sub 2} concentration might increase up to about 480 ppm (445-540 ppm), while the global-mean temperature increase w.r.t. 2000 might reach 1.2 deg. C (0.9-1.6 deg. C). However, future improvements of fossil fuels recovery and discoveries of new resources might lead to higher emissions; hence our climatic projections are likely to be underestimated. In the absence of actions of emissions reduction, a level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system might be already experienced toward the middle of the 21st century, despite the constraints imposed by the exhaustion of fossil fuels. - Highlights: > CO{sub 2} and global temperature are projected under fossil fuels exhaustion scenarios. > Temperature is projected to reach a minimum of 2 deg. C above pre-industrial. > Temperature projections are possibly lower than the IPCC ones. > Fossil fuels exhaustion will not avoid dangerous global warming.
Global attractors for the coupled suspension bridge system with temperature

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dell'Oro, Filippo; Giorgi, C.

2016-01-01

Roč. 39, č. 4 (2016), s. 864-875 ISSN 0170-4214 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : absorbing set * coupled bridge system * global attractor Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.017, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/mma.3526/abstract
ENERGI NUKLIR SEBAGAI SOLUSI UNTUK MENGHAMBAT PEMANASAN GLOBAL

OpenAIRE

Finahari, Ida Nuryatin

2018-01-01

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the earth surface, atmosphere and oceans.The global warming in recent years has been international issues. The issues come to the surfacebecause global warming has the very big impact to the world and the lives of animal, plant and human,such as world climate change. The main cause of global warming is the combustion of fossil fuel suchas coal, oil and natural gas, that released carbon dioxide and other gases to atmosphere as greenh...
Average Potential Temperature of the Upper Mantle and Excess Temperatures Beneath Regions of Active Upwelling

Science.gov (United States)

Putirka, K. D.

2006-05-01

The question as to whether any particular oceanic island is the result of a thermal mantle plume, is a question of whether volcanism is the result of passive upwelling, as at mid-ocean ridges, or active upwelling, driven by thermally buoyant material. When upwelling is passive, mantle temperatures reflect average or ambient upper mantle values. In contrast, sites of thermally driven active upwellings will have elevated (or excess) mantle temperatures, driven by some source of excess heat. Skeptics of the plume hypothesis suggest that the maximum temperatures at ocean islands are similar to maximum temperatures at mid-ocean ridges (Anderson, 2000; Green et al., 2001). Olivine-liquid thermometry, when applied to Hawaii, Iceland, and global MORB, belie this hypothesis. Olivine-liquid equilibria provide the most accurate means of estimating mantle temperatures, which are highly sensitive to the forsterite (Fo) contents of olivines, and the FeO content of coexisting liquids. Their application shows that mantle temperatures in the MORB source region are less than temperatures at both Hawaii and Iceland. The Siqueiros Transform may provide the most precise estimate of TpMORB because high MgO glass compositions there have been affected only by olivine fractionation, so primitive FeOliq is known; olivine thermometry yields TpSiqueiros = 1430 ±59°C. A global database of 22,000 MORB show that most MORB have slightly higher FeOliq than at Siqueiros, which translates to higher calculated mantle potential temperatures. If the values for Fomax (= 91.5) and KD (Fe-Mg)ol-liq (= 0.29) at Siqueiros apply globally, then upper mantle Tp is closer to 1485 ± 59°C. Averaging this global estimate with that recovered at Siqueiros yields TpMORB = 1458 ± 78°C, which is used to calculate plume excess temperatures, Te. The estimate for TpMORB defines the convective mantle geotherm, and is consistent with estimates from sea floor bathymetry and heat flow (Stein and Stein, 1992), and

Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

Science.gov (United States)

Nusslé, Sébastien; Matthews, Kathleen R.; Carlson, Stephanie M.

2015-01-01

Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout Wilderness, California, we measured riparian vegetation and monitored water temperature in three meadow streams between 2008 and 2013, including two “resting” meadows and one meadow that is partially grazed. All three meadows have been subject to grazing by cattle and sheep since the 1800s and their streams are home to the imperiled California golden trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita). In 1991, a livestock exclosure was constructed in one of the meadows (Mulkey), leaving a portion of stream ungrazed to minimize the negative effects of cattle. In 2001, cattle were removed completely from two other meadows (Big Whitney and Ramshaw), which have been in a “resting” state since that time. Inside the livestock exclosure in Mulkey, we found that riverbank vegetation was both larger and denser than outside the exclosure where cattle were present, resulting in more shaded waters and cooler maximal temperatures inside the exclosure. In addition, between meadows comparisons showed that water temperatures were cooler in the ungrazed meadows compared to the grazed area in the partially grazed meadow. Finally, we found that predicted temperatures under different global warming scenarios were likely to be higher in presence of livestock grazing. Our results highlight that land use can interact with climate change to worsen the local thermal conditions for taxa on the edge and that protecting riparian vegetation is likely to increase the resiliency of these ecosystems to climate change. PMID:26565706
Global warming: A vicious circle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinclair, J.

1991-01-01

As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted
A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

2015-01-21

There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yuan, Wenping [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Luo, Yiqi [Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Li, Xianglan [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Synthesis Research Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zhou, Tao [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Bahn, Michael [Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Black, Andy [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B. C., Canada; Desai, Ankur R. [Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Cescatti, Alessandro [Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Marcolla, Barbara [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Jacobs, Cor [Alterra, Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Chen, Jiquan [Department of Earth, Ecological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio, USA; Aurela, Mika [Climate and Global Change Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Bernhofer, Christian [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Gielen, Bert [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Bohrer, Gil [Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA; Cook, David R. [Climate Research Section, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA; Dragoni, Danilo [Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Dunn, Allison L. [Department of Physical and Earth Sciences, Worcester State College, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA; Gianelle, Damiano [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Grünwald, Thomas [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Ibrom, Andreas [Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Biosystems Division, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA; Lindroth, Anders [Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Liu, Heping [Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA; Marchesini, Luca Belelli [Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; Montagnani, Leonardo; Pita, Gabriel [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal; Rodeghiero, Mirco [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Rodrigues, Abel [Unidade de Silvicultura e Produtos Florestais, Instituto Nacional dos Recursos Biológicos, Oeiras, Portugal; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Stoy, Paul C. [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA

2011-10-13

Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual
The global distribution of ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

Science.gov (United States)

Riddick, S. N.; Dragosits, U.; Blackall, T. D.; Daunt, F.; Wanless, S.; Sutton, M. A.

2012-08-01

Seabird colonies represent a significant source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) in remote maritime systems, producing a source of nitrogen that may encourage plant growth, alter terrestrial plant community composition and affect the surrounding marine ecosystem. To investigate seabird NH3 emissions on a global scale, we developed a contemporary seabird database including a total seabird population of 261 million breeding pairs. We used this in conjunction with a bioenergetics model to estimate the mass of nitrogen excreted by all seabirds at each breeding colony. The results combined with the findings of mid-latitude field studies of volatilization rates estimate the global distribution of NH3 emissions from seabird colonies on an annual basis. The largest uncertainty in our emission estimate concerns the potential temperature dependence of NH3 emission. To investigate this we calculated and compared temperature independent emission estimates with a maximum feasible temperature dependent emission, based on the thermodynamic dissociation and solubility equilibria. Using the temperature independent approach, we estimate global NH3 emissions from seabird colonies at 404 Gg NH3 per year. By comparison, since most seabirds are located in relatively cold circumpolar locations, the thermodynamically dependent estimate is 136 Gg NH3 per year. Actual global emissions are expected to be within these bounds, as other factors, such as non-linear interactions with water availability and surface infiltration, moderate the theoretical temperature response. Combining sources of error from temperature (±49%), seabird population estimates (±36%), variation in diet composition (±23%) and non-breeder attendance (±13%), gives a mid estimate with an overall uncertainty range of NH3 emission from seabird colonies of 270 [97-442] Gg NH3 per year. These emissions are environmentally relevant as they primarily occur as "hot-spots" in otherwise pristine environments with low anthropogenic
Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

2011-07-19

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.
Global distribution of pauses observed with satellite measurements

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

We present global distribution of altitudes and temperatures of these pauses observed with long-term space borne high- ... metries between northern and southern hemispheres continue up to the mesopause. We analyze ..... the mean temperature increases from the equa- .... monsoon circulation causes zonal asymmetry in.
The Search for Eight Glacial Cycles of Deep-Water Temperatures and Global ice Volume From the Southern Hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Ferretti, P.; Elderfield, H.; Greaves, M.; McCave, N.

2007-12-01

It has been recently suggested "a substantial portion of the marine 100-ky cycle that has been object of so much attention over the past quarter of a century is, in reality, a deep-water temperature signal and not an ice volume signal" (Shackleton, 2000). There are currently few records available of deep-water temperature variations during the Pleistocene and most of our understanding is inferred from the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of benthic foraminifera from deep-sea sediments. However, variations in benthic δ18O reflect some combination of local to regional changes in water mass properties (largely deep- water temperature) as well as global changes in seawater δ18O (δ18Osw) resulting from the growth and decay of continental ice. Recent studies suggest that benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca may be useful in reconstructing deep-water temperature changes, but the application of this method to benthic species has been hampered by a number of unresolved issues, such as uncertainties related to the calibration for benthic Mg at the coldest temperatures. Here we present deep-sea Mg/Ca and δ18O records for the past eight glacial cycles in benthic foraminiferal ( Uvigerina spp.) calcite from a marine sediment core recovered in the mid Southern latitudes. Ocean Drilling Program Site 1123 was retrieved from Chatham Rise, east of New Zealand in the Southwest Pacific Ocean (3290 m water depth). This site lies under the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) that flows into the Pacific Ocean, and is responsible for most of the deep water in that ocean; DWBC strength is directly related to processes occurring around Antarctica. Temperatures derived via pore fluid modeling of the last glacial maximum are available from Site 1123 and represent an important tool to constrain deep-water temperatures estimates using Mg/Ca. In selected time slices, we measured B/Ca ratios in Uvigerina in order to gain information on the deep-water carbonate saturation state and have data of Mg
A global bioheat model with self-tuning optimal regulation of body temperature using Hebbian feedback covariance learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ong, M L; Ng, E Y K

2005-12-01

In the lower brain, body temperature is continually being regulated almost flawlessly despite huge fluctuations in ambient and physiological conditions that constantly threaten the well-being of the body. The underlying control problem defining thermal homeostasis is one of great enormity: Many systems and sub-systems are involved in temperature regulation and physiological processes are intrinsically complex and intertwined. Thus the defining control system has to take into account the complications of nonlinearities, system uncertainties, delayed feedback loops as well as internal and external disturbances. In this paper, we propose a self-tuning adaptive thermal controller based upon Hebbian feedback covariance learning where the system is to be regulated continually to best suit its environment. This hypothesis is supported in part by postulations of the presence of adaptive optimization behavior in biological systems of certain organisms which face limited resources vital for survival. We demonstrate the use of Hebbian feedback covariance learning as a possible self-adaptive controller in body temperature regulation. The model postulates an important role of Hebbian covariance adaptation as a means of reinforcement learning in the thermal controller. The passive system is based on a simplified 2-node core and shell representation of the body, where global responses are captured. Model predictions are consistent with observed thermoregulatory responses to conditions of exercise and rest, and heat and cold stress. An important implication of the model is that optimal physiological behaviors arising from self-tuning adaptive regulation in the thermal controller may be responsible for the departure from homeostasis in abnormal states, e.g., fever. This was previously unexplained using the conventional "set-point" control theory.
Keeping cool on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seitz, F.; Hawkins, W.; Nierenberg, W.; Salmon, J.; Jastrow, R.; Moore, J.H.

1992-01-01

A number of scientific groups have concluded that the greenhouse effect caused by the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other bases has produced much or all of the rise in global temperatures. They predict that there will be an increase in greenhouse gases equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide by the middle of the 21st century, and that this will cause the temperature of the earth to rise by as much as 5C. According to these scientists, a temperature rise of this magnitude would cause major disruptions in the earth's ecosystem, including severe summer drought in the midwestern US and other agricultural regions. The worst-case scenarios predict a major rise in sea level as a result of the greenhouse warming, inundating areas of New York, Miami and other coastal cities as well as low-lying river deltas and islands. The lives of hundreds of millions of people would be disrupted. The available data on climate change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. As the authors make this statement, they are aware that it contradicts widespread popular opinion, as well as the technical judgments of some of their colleagues. But it would be imprudent to ignore the facts on global warming that have accumulated over the last two years. These facts indicate that theoretical estimates of the greenhouse problem have greatly exaggerated its seriousness. Enormous economic stakes ride on forthcoming government decisions regarding carbon taxes and other restrictions on CO 2 emissions. Due attention must therefore be given to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. This article discusses the scientific evidence
Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

2011-01-01

Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.
Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sillmann, Jana; Donat, Markus G; Fyfe, John C; Zwiers, Francis W

2014-01-01

The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming. (letters)
Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

Science.gov (United States)

Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

2016-04-01

The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature
Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hare, William; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto; Alcamo, Joseph

2015-01-01

Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO 2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO 2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO 2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO 2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO 2 . Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions. (letter)
The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

2013-08-20

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.
Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Shaomin; Wu, Guang

2011-02-01

To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.
Detrimental effect of temperature increase on the fitness of an amphibian ( Lissotriton helveticus)

Science.gov (United States)

Galloy, Valérie; Denoël, Mathieu

2010-03-01

Increases of global temperatures have resulted in measurable shifts in the distribution, phenology and survival of some plant and animal species. However, the mechanisms showing links between global warming and biodiversity declines remain unclear. The aim of this study was to examine whether a key parameter of fitness, i.e. offspring number, could be affected by a temperature increase. To this end, we compared egg-laying traits at naturally occurring temperatures (14 °C, 18 °C and 22 °C) in palmate newts, Lissotriton helveticus. Our study suggests that water temperature increase has a negative effect on the fecundity of female newts. Females lay half as many eggs at high temperatures as they do at low temperatures, which results in a lower number of hatchlings. This study shows that global warming would affect amphibian populations. It complements other studies in pointing out that changes in phenology may not be driven only by warmer earlier temperatures but also by counter-selection during late-breeding, particularly in long-term breeders such as newts. More experimental studies should be carried out to understand the complex consequences of global warming and the proximate mechanisms of amphibian decline.
Radial convection of finite ion temperature, high amplitude plasma blobs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wiesenberger, M.; Madsen, Jens; Kendl, Alexander

2014-01-01

We present results from simulations of seeded blob convection in the scrape-off-layer of magnetically confined fusion plasmas. We consistently incorporate high fluctuation amplitude levels and finite Larmor radius (FLR) effects using a fully nonlinear global gyrofluid model. This is in line......-field transport compared to blobs simulated with the local model. The maximal blob amplitude is significantly higher in the global simulations than in the local ones. When the ion temperature is comparable to the electron temperature, global blob simulations show a reduced blob coherence and a decreased cross...
Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs
Cosmic microwave background constraints for global strings and global monopoles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Lizarraga, Joanes; Urrestilla, Jon; Hindmarsh, Mark

2017-01-01

We present the first cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra from numerical simulations of the global O( N ) linear σ-model, with N =2,3, which have global strings and monopoles as topological defects. In order to compute the CMB power spectra we compute the unequal time correlators (UETCs) of the energy-momentum tensor, showing that they fall off at high wave number faster than naive estimates based on the geometry of the defects, indicating non-trivial (anti-)correlations between the defects and the surrounding Goldstone boson field. We obtain source functions for Einstein-Boltzmann solvers from the UETCs, using a recently developed method that improves the modelling at the radiation-matter transition. We show that the interpolation function that mimics the transition is similar to other defect models, but not identical, confirming the non-universality of the interpolation function. The CMB power spectra for global strings and global monopoles have the same overall shape as those obtained using the non-linear σ-model approximation, which is well captured by a large- N calculation. However, the amplitudes are larger than the large- N calculation would naively predict, and in the case of global strings much larger: a factor of 20 at the peak. Finally we compare the CMB power spectra with the latest CMB data in other to put limits on the allowed contribution to the temperature power spectrum at multipole l = 10 of 1.7% for global strings and 2.4% for global monopoles. These limits correspond to symmetry-breaking scales of 2.9× 10 15 GeV (6.3× 10 14 GeV with the expected logarithmic scaling of the effective string tension between the simulation time and decoupling) and 6.4× 10 15 GeV respectively. The bound on global strings is a significant one for the ultra-light axion scenario with axion masses m a ∼< 10 −28 eV . These upper limits indicate that gravitational waves from global topological defects will not be observable at the gravitational wave

Climate change - global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciconkov, Risto

2001-01-01

An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 4

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset is a global monthly sea surface temperature analysis on a 2x2 degree grid derived from the...
Supplementary Material for: Compressing an Ensemble With Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano

2016-01-01

One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific datasets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a nontrivial model to a dataset of 1 billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10¹⁸ entries. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Extracting and Analyzing the Warming Trend in Global and Hemispheric Temperatures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Estrada, Francisco; Perron, Pierre

2017-01-01

This article offers an updated and extended attribution analysis based on recently published versions of temperature and forcing datasets. It shows that both temperature and radiative forcing variables can be best represented as trend stationary processes with structural changes occurring in the
Effect of limb cooling on peripheral and global oxygen consumption in neonates.

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, I A-A; Wickramasinghe, Y A; Spencer, S A

2003-03-01

To evaluate peripheral oxygen consumption (VO(2)) measurements using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) with arterial occlusion in healthy term neonates by studying the effect of limb cooling on peripheral and global VO(2). Twenty two healthy term neonates were studied. Peripheral VO(2) was measured by NIRS using arterial occlusion and measurement of the oxyhaemoglobin (HbO(2)) decrement slope. Global VO(2) was measured by open circuit calorimetry. Global and peripheral VO(2) was measured in each neonate before and after limb cooling. In 10 neonates, a fall in forearm temperature of 2.2 degrees C (mild cooling) decreased forearm VO(2) by 19.6% (p forearm temperature of 4 degrees C (moderate cooling) decreased forearm VO(2) by 34.7% (p cooling. The changes are more pronounced with moderate limb cooling when a concomitant rise in global VO(2) is observed. Change in peripheral temperature must be taken into consideration in the interpretation of peripheral VO(2) measurements in neonates.
Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

Science.gov (United States)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.
An operational analysis of Lake Surface Water Temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma K. Fiedler

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Operational analyses of Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT have many potential uses including improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP models on regional scales. In November 2011, LSWT was included in the Met Office Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA product, for 248 lakes globally. The OSTIA analysis procedure, which has been optimised for oceans, has also been used for the lakes in this first version of the product. Infra-red satellite observations of lakes and in situ measurements are assimilated. The satellite observations are based on retrievals optimised for Sea Surface Temperature (SST which, although they may introduce inaccuracies into the LSWT data, are currently the only near-real-time information available. The LSWT analysis has a global root mean square difference of 1.31 K and a mean difference of 0.65 K (including a cool skin effect of 0.2 K compared to independent data from the ESA ARC-Lake project for a 3-month period (June to August 2009. It is demonstrated that the OSTIA LSWT is an improvement over the use of climatology to capture the day-to-day variation in global lake surface temperatures.
Temperature-induced viral resistance in Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae).

Science.gov (United States)

Kendrick, B Jacob; DiTullio, Giacomo R; Cyronak, Tyler J; Fulton, James M; Van Mooy, Benjamin A S; Bidle, Kay D

2014-01-01

Annual Emiliania huxleyi blooms (along with other coccolithophorid species) play important roles in the global carbon and sulfur cycles. E. huxleyi blooms are routinely terminated by large, host-specific dsDNA viruses, (Emiliania huxleyi Viruses; EhVs), making these host-virus interactions a driving force behind their potential impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Given projected increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change, it is imperative to understand the effects of temperature on E. huxleyi's susceptibility to viral infection and its production of climatically active dimethylated sulfur species (DSS). Here we demonstrate that a 3°C increase in temperature induces EhV-resistant phenotypes in three E. huxleyi strains and that successful virus infection impacts DSS pool sizes. We also examined cellular polar lipids, given their documented roles in regulating host-virus interactions in this system, and propose that alterations to membrane-bound surface receptors are responsible for the observed temperature-induced resistance. Our findings have potential implications for global biogeochemical cycles in a warming climate and for deciphering the particular mechanism(s) by which some E. huxleyi strains exhibit viral resistance.
NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), Version 5

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset is a global monthly sea surface temperature dataset derived from the International...
Long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship: a fractional cointegration approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Heres, David R; Martínez-Hernández, L Catalina

2014-01-01

Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.
Worldwide surface temperature trends since the mid-19th century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, D.E.; Folland, C.K.

1990-01-01

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1856 to the present have been corrected to compensate for the use of uninsulated buckets prior to the early 1940s. Trends in the corrected SST are consistent with trends in independently corrected nighttime marine air temperatures (NMAT). Global-scale patterns of variation of annual anomalies of SST and NMAT, as revealed by the first three covariance eigenvectors, are also in close agreement. The corrected SST anomalies are also compared with those of nearby coastal and island land air temperatures. Global-scale agreement is good except in the early 20th century when the land data were relatively warm by up to 0.2 C. Proposed causes are the siting of thermometers in open-sided thatched sheds in tropical regions at that time, along with a marked tendency to warm westerly atmospheric circulation over Europe in winter. Combined fields of SST and land air temperature are presented. The relative overall coldness of the late 19th century land air temperatures appears to have arisen from inner-continental and high-latitude regions, especially in winter. Combined fields do not yield full global coverage even in the 1980s, so satellite-based SST data need to be blended carefully with the ship-based observations if monitoring of global climate is to be complete
Worldwide surface temperature trends since the mid-19th century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, D.E.; Folland, C.K.

1991-01-01

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1856 to the present have been corrected to compensate for the use of uninsulated buckets prior to the early 1940s. Trends in the corrected SST are consistent with trends in independently corrected nighttime marine air temperatures (NMAT). Global-scale patterns of variation of annual anomalies of SST and NMAT, as revealed by the first three covariance eigenvectors, are also in close agreement. The corrected SST anomalies are also compared with those of nearby coastal and island land air temperatures. Global-scale agreement is good except in the early 20th century when the land data were relatively warm by up to 0.2 C. Proposed causes are the siting of thermometers in open-sided thatched sheds in tropical regions at that time, along with a marked tendency to warm westerly atmospheric circulation over Europe in winter. Combined fields of SST and land air temperature are presented. The relative overall coldness of the late 19th century land air temperatures appears to have arisen from inner-continental and high-latitude regions, especially in winter. Combined fields do not yield full global coverage even in the 1980s, so satellite-based SST data need to be blended carefully with the ship-based observations if monitoring of global climate is to be complete. 32 refs.; 16 figs
Hawking temperature of constant curvature black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai Ronggen; Myung, Yun Soo

2011-01-01

The constant curvature (CC) black holes are higher dimensional generalizations of Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli black holes. It is known that these black holes have the unusual topology of M D-1 xS 1 , where D is the spacetime dimension and M D-1 stands for a conformal Minkowski spacetime in D-1 dimensions. The unusual topology and time-dependence for the exterior of these black holes cause some difficulties to derive their thermodynamic quantities. In this work, by using a globally embedding approach, we obtain the Hawking temperature of the CC black holes. We find that the Hawking temperature takes the same form when using both the static and global coordinates. Also, it is identical to the Gibbons-Hawking temperature of the boundary de Sitter spaces of these CC black holes.
Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

2014-01-01

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections
Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) Version 2

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) Version 2 consists of quality-controlled radiosonde observations of temperature, humidity, and wind at stations across...
Online Global Land Surface Temperature Estimation from Landsat

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Parastatidis

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study explores the estimation of land surface temperature (LST for the globe from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 thermal infrared sensors, using different surface emissivity sources. A single channel algorithm is used for consistency among the estimated LST products, whereas the option of using emissivity from different sources provides flexibility for the algorithm’s implementation to any area of interest. The Google Earth Engine (GEE, an advanced earth science data and analysis platform, allows the estimation of LST products for the globe, covering the time period from 1984 to present. To evaluate the method, the estimated LST products were compared against two reference datasets: (a LST products derived from ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer, as higher-level products based on the temperature-emissivity separation approach; (b Landsat LST data that have been independently produced, using different approaches. An overall RMSE (root mean square error of 1.52 °C was observed and it was confirmed that the accuracy of the LST product is dependent on the emissivity; different emissivity sources provided different LST accuracies, depending on the surface cover. The LST products, for the full Landsat 5, 7 and 8 archives, are estimated “on-the-fly” and are available on-line via a web application.
Implications of global warming on human health

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, R.K.; Syam, P.V.S.

1997-01-01

Due to the build up of green house gases in atmosphere, less heat escapes through the atmosphere promoting global warming. This may result in world wide droughts, sea-level rise inundating islands and coastal countries, cataclysmic hurricanes etc. Human health as a result of these changes, will be affected both physiologically and psychologically. Physiological effects may be more pronounced in cases occurring due to changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, food production amounts, water availability, etc. Psychological impact may be more in cases of catastrophes like floods, hurricanes or famine. In this paper, an attempt has been made to highlight the implications of global warming on human health due to temperature change. Food production changes and ultra-violet radiation effects and cataclysmic disaster effects. (author)
Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

1999-01-01

warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The "solar hypothesis" claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier paper we have demonstrated that for data covering...... lengths with the "corrected" temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.......Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of Northern Hemisphere land air temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global...
Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scheffer, M.; Brovkin, V.; Cox, P.M.

2006-01-01

There is good evidence that higher global temperatures will promote a rise of greenhouse gas levels, implying a positive feedback which will increase the effect of anthropogenic emissions on global temperatures. However, the magnitude of this effect predicted by the available models remains highly
Slow dynamics and glass transition in simulated free-standing polymer films: a possible relation between global and local glass transition temperatures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peter, S; Meyer, H; Baschnagel, J; Seemann, R

2007-01-01

We employ molecular dynamics simulations to explore the influence that the surface of a free-standing polymer film exerts on its structural relaxation when the film is cooled toward the glass transition. Our simulations are concerned with the features of a coarse-grained bead-spring model in a temperature regime above the critical temperature T c of mode-coupling theory. We find that the film dynamics is spatially heterogeneous. Monomers at the free surface relax much faster than they would in the bulk at the same temperature T. The fast relaxation of the surface layer continuously turns into bulk-like relaxation with increasing distance y from the surface. This crossover remains smooth for all T, but its range grows on cooling. We show that it is possible to associate a gradient in critical temperatures T c (y) with the gradient in the relaxation dynamics. This finding is in qualitative agreement with experimental results on supported polystyrene (PS) films (Ellison and Torkelson 2003 Nat. Mater. 2 695). Furthermore we show that the y dependence of T c (y) can be expressed in terms of the depression of T c (h)-the global T c for a film of thickness h-if we assume that T c (h) is the arithmetic mean of T c (y) and parameterize the depression of T c (h) by T c (h) = T c /(1+h 0 /h), a formula suggested by Herminghaus et al (2001 Eur. Phys. J. E 5 531) for the reduction of the glass transition temperature in supported PS films. We demonstrate the validity of this formula by comparing our simulation results to results from other simulations and experiments

High temperature heat recovery systems; Les recuperateurs de chaleur a haute temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martin, L.

2003-07-15

A state-of-the-art of high temperature heat recovery systems has been made to highlight the advantages of recovery in different energy cycles, and to compare the different geometries, materials and fabrication processes used by the different manufacturers. This leads to define the criteria that a heat recovery system must satisfy in gas turbine cogeneration applications. The pre-dimensioning of a recovery system has been performed in order to compare different geometries and to evaluate them with respect to the criteria defined in the bibliographic study. Finally, the new configuration of the 'Claire' loop has permitted to experimentally characterize a recovery system with an innovative technology based on an helical geometry. These tests have permitted to obtain the global data of the recovery system (efficiency, pressure drop, global exchange coefficient, friction coefficient, velocity and temperature profiles) and to position it with respect to the criteria defined in the bibliographic study. (J.S.)
Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Heiko; Fanesi, Andrea; Wilhelm, Christian

2016-09-20

Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
Coastal flood implications of 1.5°C, 2°C and 2.5°C global mean temperature stabilization targets for small island nations

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, D.; Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of flooding in coastal regions. The rate and amount of global-mean SLR is a function of the trajectory of the global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature stabilization targets (e.g., 1.5°C or 2°C, as from the Paris Agreement) have important implications for regulating coastal flood risk. Quantifying the differences in the impact from SLR between these and other GMST stabilization targets is necessary for assessing the benefits and harms of mitigation goals. Low-lying small island nations are particularly vulnerable to inundation and coastal flooding from SLR because building protective and resilient infrastructure may not be physically or economically feasible. For small island nations, keeping GMST below a specified threshold may be the only option for maintaining habitability. Here, we assess differences in the return levels of coastal floods for small island nations between 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C GMST stabilization. We employ probabilistic, localized SLR projections and long-term hourly tide gauge records to construct estimates of local flood risk. We then estimate the number of small island nations' inhabitants at risk for permanent inundation under different GMST stabilization targets.
Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lluch-Cota, S.E.; Tripp-Valdéz, M.; Lluch-Cota, D.B.; Lluch-Belda, D.; Verbesselt, J.; Herrera-Cervantes, H.; Bautista-Romero, J.

2013-01-01

Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change
Northern range expansion of European populations of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi is associated with global warming-correlated genetic admixture and population-specific temperature adaptations.

Science.gov (United States)

Krehenwinkel, Henrik; Tautz, Diethard

2013-04-01

Poleward range expansions are observed for an increasing number of species, which may be an effect of global warming during the past decades. However, it is still not clear in how far these expansions reflect simple geographical shifts of species ranges, or whether new genetic adaptations play a role as well. Here, we analyse the expansion of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi into Northern Europe during the last century. We have used a range-wide sampling of contemporary populations and historical specimens from museums to trace the phylogeography and genetic changes associated with the range shift. Based on the analysis of mitochondrial, microsatellite and SNP markers, we observe a higher level of genetic diversity in the expanding populations, apparently due to admixture of formerly isolated lineages. Using reciprocal transplant experiments for testing overwintering tolerance, as well as temperature preference and tolerance tests in the laboratory, we find that the invading spiders have possibly shifted their temperature niche. This may be a key adaptation for survival in Northern latitudes. The museum samples allow a reconstruction of the invasion's genetic history. A first, small-scale range shift started around 1930, in parallel with the onset of global warming. A more massive invasion of Northern Europe associated with genetic admixture and morphological changes occurred in later decades. We suggest that the latter range expansion into far Northern latitudes may be a consequence of the admixture that provided the genetic material for adaptations to new environmental regimes. Hence, global warming could have facilitated the initial admixture of populations and this resulted in genetic lineages with new habitat preferences. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav

2018-02-01

Since the ‘Paris agreement’ in 2015 there has been much focus on what a +1.5 °C or +2 °C warmer world would look like. Since the focus lies on policy relevant global warming targets, or specific warming levels (SWLs), rather than a specific point in time, projections are pooled together to form SWL ensembles based on the target temperature rather than emission scenario. This study uses an ensemble of CMIP5 global model projections to analyse how well SWL ensembles represent the stabilized climate of global warming targets. The results show that the SWL ensembles exhibit significant trends that reflect the transient nature of the RCP scenarios. These trends have clear effect on the timing and clustering of monthly cold and hot extremes, even though the effect on the temperature of the extreme months is less visible. In many regions there is a link between choice of RCP scenario used in the SWL ensemble and climate change signal in the highest monthly temperatures. In other regions there is no such clear-cut link. From this we conclude that comprehensive analyses of what prospects the different global warming targets bring about will require stabilization scenarios. Awaiting such targeted scenarios we suggest that prudent use of SWL scenarios, taking their characteristics and limitations into account, may serve as reasonable proxies in many situations.
Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Visser

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend–dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.
Upper ocean currents and sea surface temperatures (SST) from Satellite-tracked drifting buoys (drifters) as part of the Global Drifter Program for Hawaii region 1980/02/01 - 2009/03/31 (NODC Accession 0063296)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Satellite-tracked drifting buoys ("drifters") collect measurements of upper ocean currents and sea surface temperatures (SST) around the world as part of the Global...
Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

Science.gov (United States)

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.
Forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level, a Continuous-Time State-Space Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boldrini, Lorenzo

In this paper we propose a continuous-time, Gaussian, linear, state-space system to model the relation between global mean sea level (GMSL) and the global mean temperature (GMT), with the aim of making long-term projections for the GMSL. We provide a justification for the model specification based......) and the temperature reconstruction from Hansen et al. (2010). We compare the forecasting performance of the proposed specification to the procedures developed in Rahmstorf (2007b) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009). Finally, we compute projections for the sea-level rise conditional on the 21st century SRES temperature...
Cosmic microwave background constraints for global strings and global monopoles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Lizarraga, Joanes; Urrestilla, Jon [Department of Theoretical Physics, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, 48080 Bilbao (Spain); Hindmarsh, Mark, E-mail: asier.lopez@ehu.eus, E-mail: joanes.lizarraga@ehu.eus, E-mail: m.b.hindmarsh@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: jon.urrestilla@ehu.eus [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QH (United Kingdom)

2017-07-01

We present the first cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra from numerical simulations of the global O( N ) linear σ-model, with N =2,3, which have global strings and monopoles as topological defects. In order to compute the CMB power spectra we compute the unequal time correlators (UETCs) of the energy-momentum tensor, showing that they fall off at high wave number faster than naive estimates based on the geometry of the defects, indicating non-trivial (anti-)correlations between the defects and the surrounding Goldstone boson field. We obtain source functions for Einstein-Boltzmann solvers from the UETCs, using a recently developed method that improves the modelling at the radiation-matter transition. We show that the interpolation function that mimics the transition is similar to other defect models, but not identical, confirming the non-universality of the interpolation function. The CMB power spectra for global strings and global monopoles have the same overall shape as those obtained using the non-linear σ-model approximation, which is well captured by a large- N calculation. However, the amplitudes are larger than the large- N calculation would naively predict, and in the case of global strings much larger: a factor of 20 at the peak. Finally we compare the CMB power spectra with the latest CMB data in other to put limits on the allowed contribution to the temperature power spectrum at multipole l = 10 of 1.7% for global strings and 2.4% for global monopoles. These limits correspond to symmetry-breaking scales of 2.9× 10{sup 15} GeV (6.3× 10{sup 14} GeV with the expected logarithmic scaling of the effective string tension between the simulation time and decoupling) and 6.4× 10{sup 15} GeV respectively. The bound on global strings is a significant one for the ultra-light axion scenario with axion masses m {sub a} ∼< 10{sup −28} eV . These upper limits indicate that gravitational waves from global topological defects will not be observable at
A Holocene temperature reconstruction from northern New Zealand: a test of North Atlantic Holocene climate patterns as a global template

Science.gov (United States)

van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

2017-04-01

Holocene climate variability has been well defined in the North Atlantic (Walker et al., 2012), but the global extent of this climate change stratigraphy is debatable. If the North Atlantic serves as a global template for Holocene climate, then New Zealand (NZ) is ideally positioned to test this assertion, as it is distal from the northern drivers. Additionally, it is one of the few landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere that is influenced by both sub-tropical and extra-tropical climatic regimes, which may be more important controls in the southern mid-latitudes. Although much work has been done to characterise the Holocene in NZ using pollen, most of these records lack the resolution or sensitivity to determine whether abrupt or short-lived events occurred. The NZ-INTIMATE climate event stratigraphy lacks a type section for the Holocene (Alloway et al., 2007). Records from northern NZ typically show little change, other than a possible early Holocene warming. Here, we present a combined pollen and chironomid temperature reconstruction from Lake Pupuke (northern NZ), the first of its kind in NZ that covers the entire Holocene. By comparing mean annual temperatures reconstructed from fossil pollen and mean summer temperatures inferred from chironomid remains, we can assess changes in seasonality. Mean summer temperature was reconstructed from the chironomid record using a weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) model (n comp = 2, r2booth = 0.77, RMSEP = 1.4°C) developed from an expanded version of Dieffenbacher-Krall et al. (2007)'s chironomid training set. Preliminary results show evidence for cool summers during the early Holocene as well as around the period of the Little Ice Age as defined in the North Atlantic region. These and other climate patterns determined from the Pupuke chironomid and pollen records will be compared with other evidence from northern New Zealand and with the North Atlantic record of Holocene climate variability. References
Global cooling as a driver of diversification in a major marine clade

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Katie E.; Hill, Jon; Astrop, Tim I.; Wills, Matthew A.

2016-10-01

Climate is a strong driver of global diversity and will become increasingly important as human influences drive temperature changes at unprecedented rates. Here we investigate diversification and speciation trends within a diverse group of aquatic crustaceans, the Anomura. We use a phylogenetic framework to demonstrate that speciation rate is correlated with global cooling across the entire tree, in contrast to previous studies. Additionally, we find that marine clades continue to show evidence of increased speciation rates with cooler global temperatures, while the single freshwater clade shows the opposite trend with speciation rates positively correlated to global warming. Our findings suggest that both global cooling and warming lead to diversification and that habitat plays a role in the responses of species to climate change. These results have important implications for our understanding of how extant biota respond to ongoing climate change and are of particular importance for conservation planning of marine ecosystems.
Projection of Heat Waves over China under Different Global Warming Targets

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiaojun; Luo, Yong; Huang, Jianbin; Zhao, Zongci

2015-04-01

Global warming targets, which are determined in terms of global mean temperature increases relative to pre-industrial temperature levels, have been one of the heated issues recently. And the climate change (especially climate extremes) and its impacts under different targets have been paid extensive concerns. In this study, evaluation and projection of heat waves in China were carried out by five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) with a 0.5°×0.5° horizontal resolution which were derived from EU WATCH project. A new daily observed gridded dataset CN05.1 (0.5°×0.5°) was also used to evaluate the GCMs. And four indices (heat waves frequency, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days) were adopted to analyze the heat waves. Compared with the observations, the five GCMs and its Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) have a remarkable capacity of reproducing the spatial and temporal characteristic of heat waves. The time correlation coefficients between MME and the observation results can all reach 0.05 significant levels. Based on the projection data of five GCMs, both the median year of crossing 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets and the corresponding climate change over China were analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results show that when the global mean surface air temperature rise to different targets with respect to the pre-industrial times (1861-1880), the frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase dramatically. To take the high emission scenario RCP8.5 as an example, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming rate over China is stronger than that over the globe, the temperature rise(median year) over China projected by MME are 1.77°C(2025), 2.63°C(2039), 3.39°C(2050), 3.97°C(2060), 4.82°C(2070), 5.47°C(2079) and 6.2°C(2089) under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C and 4.5°C global warming targets, respectively. With the increase of the global
Forecast models for urban extreme temperatures : Karachi region as a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hussain, M.A.; Abbas, A.; Ansari, M.R.K.

2010-01-01

The climatic signature of global warming is both local and global. The forcing by increasing greenhouse gases is global, so there is clearly a global component to the climatic signature. Moreover, the damaging impacts of global warming are manifesting themselves around the world in the form of extreme weather events like storms, tornadoes, floods and droughts, all of which have been escalating in frequency and intensity. Furthermore, it is a well-known fact that there is high degree of uncertainty surrounding projections of basic climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation. However, numerous authors have explored many of these effects individually and have begun exploring the interactions between climate change-induced impacts in different sectors of urban activities. Therefore, it is safe to say that an attempt to conduct a definitive, comprehensive analysis of all the potential impacts of climate change on the urban structure is premature at present. This communication attempts to examine the trends in maximum monthly urban temperature fluctuations. Analysis reveals increasing trends in urban temperature fluctuations showing effect of Karachi industrializations. Forecast models also suggest future scenario with respect to occurrence of extreme temperature. The analysis carried out in this work would be useful for urban planners for sustainable future development, economists and environmentalists etc. (author)
Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

2018-01-01

A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.
Global surface temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

is observed that the meridional gradient in surface air temperature anomalies between Europe and ... Surface air tempera- ture is one of the factors that influence monsoon variability. The distribution of surface air temper- ature over land and sea determines the locations ..... Asia, north Indian Ocean, northeast Russia and.
A compact skeletal mechanism for n -dodecane with optimized semi-global low-temperature chemistry for diesel engine simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yao, Tong; Pei, Yuanjiang; Zhong, Bei-Jing; Som, Sibendu; Lu, Tianfeng; Luo, Kai Hong

2017-03-01

A skeletal mechanism with 54 species and 269 reactions was developed to predict pyrolysis and oxidation of n-dodecane as a diesel fuel surrogate involving both high-temperature (high-T) and low-temperature (low-T) conditions. The skeletal mechanism was developed from a semi-detailed mechanism developed at the University of Southern California (USC). Species and reactions for high-T pyrolysis and oxidation of C5-C12 were reduced by using reaction flow analysis (RFA), isomer lumping, and then merged into a skeletal C0-C4 core to form a high-T sub-mechanism. Species and lumped semi-global reactions for low-T chemistry were then added to the high-T sub-mechanism and a 54-species skeletal mechanism is obtained. The rate parameters of the low-T reactions were tuned against a detailed mechanism by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), as well as the Spray A flame experimental data, to improve the prediction of ignition delay at low-T conditions, while the high-T chemistry remained unchanged. The skeletal mechanism was validated for auto-ignition, perfectly stirred reactors (PSR), flow reactors and laminar premixed flames over a wide range of flame conditions. The skeletal mechanism was then employed to simulate three-dimensional turbulent spray flames at compression ignition engine conditions and validated against experimental data from the Engine Combustion Network (ECN).
Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.
An Evaluation of C1-C3 Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) Metrics: Lifetimes, Ozone Depletion Potentials, Radiative Efficiencies, Global Warming and Global Temperature Potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Burkholder, J. B.; Papanastasiou, D. K.; Marshall, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) have been used as chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) substitutes in a number of applications, e.g. refrigerator and air-conditioning systems. Although HCFCs have lower ozone-depletion potentials (ODPs) compared to CFCs, they are potent greenhouse gases. The twenty-eighth meeting of the parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Kigali, 2016) included a list of 274 HCFCs to be controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, from this list, only 15 of the HCFCs have values for their atmospheric lifetime, ODP, global warming potential (GWP), and global temperature potential (GTP) that are based on fundamental experimental studies, while 48 are registered compounds. In this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the atmospheric lifetimes, ODPs, radiative efficiencies (REs), GWPs, and GTPs for all 274 HCFCs to be included in the Montreal Protocol. Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated based on HCFC reactivity with OH radicals and O(1D), as well as their removal by UV photolysis using structure activity relationships and reactivity trends. ODP values are based on the semi-empirical approach described in the WMO/UNEP ozone assessment. Radiative efficiencies were estimated, based on infrared spectra calculated using theoretical electronic structure methods (Gaussian 09). GWPs and GTPs were calculated relative to CO2 using our estimated atmospheric lifetimes and REs. The details of the methodology will be discussed as well as the associated uncertainties. This study has provided a consistent set of atmospheric metrics for a wide range of HCFCs that support future policy decisions. More accurate metrics for a specific HCFC, if desired, would require fundamental laboratory studies to better define the OH reactivity and infrared absorption spectrum of the compound of interest. Overall, HCFCs within the same family (isomers) show a large ODP, GWP, GTP dependence on the molecular geometry of the isomers. The

Possible influence of long-term sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific on global zone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Komhyr, W D; Oltmans, S J; Grass, R D [Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., Boulder, CO (USA); Leonard, R K [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (USA)

1991-01-01

A significant negative correlation exists between summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east equatorial Pacific and late-October south pole total ozone values. SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific were anomalously warmer during 1976-1987 compared with 1962-1975. QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific stratosphere were generally stronger after 1975. Before the early-to-mid 1970s the trend in global ozone was generally upward, but then turned downward. Total ozone at Hawaii and Samoa, which had been decreasing during 1976-1987, showed recovery to mid-1970s values in 1988-1989 following a drop in SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to low values last observed there prior to 1976. During late October 1988, total south pole ozone, which had decreased from ca 280 Dobson units (DU) before 1980 to 140 DU in 1987, suddenly recovered to 250 DU, though substantial ozone depletion by heterogeneous photochemical processes involving polar stratospheric clouds was still evident in the south pole ozone vertical profiles. These observations suggest that the downward trend in ozone observed over the globe in recent years may have been at least partly meteorologically induced, possibly via modulation by the warmer tropical Pacific ocean waters of QBO easterly winds at the equator, of Hadley Cell circulation, or other factors. A cursory analysis of geostrophic wind flow around the Baffin Island low suggests a meteorological influence on the observed downward trend in ozone over North America during the past decade. Because ozone has a lifetime that varies from years to minutes, changes in atmospheric dynamics have a potential to not only redistribute ozone over the globe but also to change global ozone abundance. 47 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.
Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

2015-07-01

The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to
The carbon dioxide thermometer and the cause of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calder, Nigel

1999-01-01

Carbon dioxide in the air may be increasing because the world is warming. This possibility, which contradicts the hypothesis of an enhanced greenhouse warming driven by manmade emissions, is here pursued in two ways. First, increments in carbon dioxide are treated as readings of a natural thermometer that tracks global and hemispheric temperature deviations, as gauged by meteorologists' thermometers. Calibration of the carbon dioxide thermometer to conventional temperatures then leads to a history of carbon dioxide since 1856 that diverges from the ice-core record. Secondly, the increments of carbon dioxide can also be accounted for, without reference to temperature, by the combined effects of cosmic rays, El Nino and volcanoes. The most durable effect is due to cosmic rays. A solar wind history, used as a long-term proxy for the cosmic rays, gives a carbon dioxide history similar to that inferred from the global temperature deviations. (author)
The impact of high temperatures on foraging behaviour and body ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

High temperatures can pose significant thermoregulation challenges for endotherms, and determining how individual species respond to high temperatures will be important for predicting the impact of global warming on wild populations. Animals can adjust their behaviour or physiology to cope with higher temperatures, ...
Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Terry P.; Kerry, James T.; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Anderson, Kristen D.; Baird, Andrew H.; Babcock, Russell C.; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R.; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C.; Butler, Ian R.; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E.; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Dalton, Steven J.; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C. Mark; Figueira, Will F.; Gilmour, James P.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Heron, Scott F.; Hoey, Andrew S.; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Kennedy, Emma V.; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T.; Malcolm, Hamish A.; McWilliam, Michael J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Pears, Rachel J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J.; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R.; Willis, Bette L.; Wilson, Shaun K.

2017-03-01

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.
Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Anderson, Kristen D; Baird, Andrew H; Babcock, Russell C; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C; Butler, Ian R; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R; Cumming, Graeme S; Dalton, Steven J; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C Mark; Figueira, Will F; Gilmour, James P; Harrison, Hugo B; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Kennedy, Emma V; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M; Lowe, Ryan J; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T; Malcolm, Hamish A; McWilliam, Michael J; Pandolfi, John M; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R; Willis, Bette L; Wilson, Shaun K

2017-03-15

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.
Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Mikšovský, Jiří; Holtanová, E.; Pišoft, P.

2016-01-01

Roč. 7, č. 1 (2016), s. 231-249 ISSN 2190-4979 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : atlantic multidecadal osciallation * pacific decadal oscillation * surface-temperature * 20th century reanalysis * southern-oscilation * internal variability * irradiance Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.635, year: 2016
Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

2007-01-01

Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale
Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

OpenAIRE

Deryng, Delphine

2014-01-01

As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...
Global carbon inequality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hubacek, Klaus [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Masaryk University, Department of Environmental Studies, Brno (Czech Republic); Baiocchi, Giovanni [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Economics, College Park, MD (United States); Feng, Kuishuang [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Munoz Castillo, Raul [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); Interamerican Development Bank, Washington, DC (United States); Sun, Laixiang [University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD (United States); SOAS, University of London, London (United Kingdom); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Xue, Jinjun [Nagoya University, Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya (Japan); Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan (China)

2017-12-01

Global climate change and inequality are inescapably linked both in terms of who contributes climate change and who suffers the consequences. This fact is also partly reflected in two United Nations (UN) processes: on the one hand, the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under which countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and, on the other hand, the UN's Sustainable Development Goals aiming to end poverty. These agreements are seen as important foundation to put the world nations on a sustainable pathway. However, how these agreements can be achieved or whether they are even mutually compatible is less clear. We explore the global carbon inequality between and within countries and the carbon implications of poverty alleviation by combining detailed consumer expenditure surveys for different income categories for a wide range of countries with an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output approach to estimate carbon footprints of different household groups, globally, and assess the carbon implications of moving the poorest people out of poverty. Given the current context, increasing income leads to increasing carbon footprints and makes global targets for mitigating greenhouse gases more difficult to achieve given the pace of technological progress and current levels of fossil fuel dependence. We conclude that the huge level of carbon inequality requires a critical discussion of undifferentiated income growth. Current carbon-intensive lifestyles and consumption patterns need to enter the climate discourse to a larger extent. (orig.)
Global carbon inequality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang; Munoz Castillo, Raul; Sun, Laixiang; Xue, Jinjun

2017-01-01

Global climate change and inequality are inescapably linked both in terms of who contributes climate change and who suffers the consequences. This fact is also partly reflected in two United Nations (UN) processes: on the one hand, the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under which countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and, on the other hand, the UN's Sustainable Development Goals aiming to end poverty. These agreements are seen as important foundation to put the world nations on a sustainable pathway. However, how these agreements can be achieved or whether they are even mutually compatible is less clear. We explore the global carbon inequality between and within countries and the carbon implications of poverty alleviation by combining detailed consumer expenditure surveys for different income categories for a wide range of countries with an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output approach to estimate carbon footprints of different household groups, globally, and assess the carbon implications of moving the poorest people out of poverty. Given the current context, increasing income leads to increasing carbon footprints and makes global targets for mitigating greenhouse gases more difficult to achieve given the pace of technological progress and current levels of fossil fuel dependence. We conclude that the huge level of carbon inequality requires a critical discussion of undifferentiated income growth. Current carbon-intensive lifestyles and consumption patterns need to enter the climate discourse to a larger extent. (orig.)
Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, M.; Meinshausen, M.; Knutti, R.

2015-01-01

Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this
GHRSST L3C global sub-skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on Metop satellites (currently Metop-A) (GDS V2) produced by OSI SAF (GDS version 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 3 Collated (L3C) dataset derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)...
GHRSST L3C global sub-skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on Metop satellites (currently Metop-B) (GDS V2) produced by OSI SAF (GDS version 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 3 Collated (L3C) dataset derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)...
Remote sensing of land surface temperature: The directional viewing effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, J.A.; Schmugge, T.J.; Ballard, J.R. Jr.

1997-01-01

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an important parameter in understanding global environmental change because it controls many of the underlying processes in the energy budget at the surface and heat and water transport between the surface and the atmosphere. The measurement of LST at a variety of spatial and temporal scales and extension to global coverage requires remote sensing means to achieve these goals. Land surface temperature and emissivity products are currently being derived from satellite and aircraft remote sensing data using a variety of techniques to correct for atmospheric effects. Implicit in the commonly employed approaches is the assumption of isotropy in directional thermal infrared exitance. The theoretical analyses indicate angular variations in apparent infrared temperature will typically yield land surface temperature errors ranging from 1 to 4 C unless corrective measures are applied
Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

2014-01-01

Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138
Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

2014-01-01

Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.
A model-data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lohmann, G.; Pfeiffer, M.; Laepple, T.; Leduc, G.; Kim, J.-H.

2013-01-01

We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate
Global map of solar power production efficiency, considering micro climate factors

Science.gov (United States)

Hassanpour Adeh, E.; Higgins, C. W.

2017-12-01

Natural resources degradation and greenhouse gas emissions are creating a global crisis. Renewable energy is the most reliable option to mitigate this environmental dilemma. Abundancy of solar energy makes it highly attractive source of electricity. The existing global spatial maps of available solar energy are created with various models which consider the irradiation, latitude, cloud cover, elevation, shading and aerosols, and neglect the influence of local meteorological conditions. In this research, the influences of microclimatological variables on solar energy productivity were investigated with an in-field study at the Rabbit Hills solar arrays near Oregon State University. The local studies were extended to a global level, where global maps of solar power were produced, taking the micro climate variables into account. These variables included: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation. The energy balance approach was used to synthesize the data and compute the efficiencies. The results confirmed that the solar power efficiency can be directly affected by the air temperature and wind speed.
The temperature signature of an IMF-driven change to the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC) in the Antarctic troposphere

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Mervyn; Lam, Mai Mai; Chisham, Gareth

2017-04-01

We use National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data to show that Antarctic surface air temperature anomalies result from differences in the daily-mean duskward component,By, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We find the anomalies have strong geographical and seasonal variations. Regional anomalies are evident poleward of 60˚ S and are of diminishing representative peak amplitude from autumn (3.2˚ C) to winter (2.4˚ C) to spring (1.6˚ C) to summer (0.9˚ C). We demonstrate that anomalies of statistically-significant amplitude are due to geostrophic wind anomalies, resulting from the same By changes, moving air across large meridional gradients in zonal mean air temperature between 60 and 80˚ S. Additionally, we find that the mean tropospheric temperature anomaly for geographical latitudes ≤ -70˚ peaks at about 0.7 K and is statistically significant at the 1 - 5% level between air pressures of 1000 and 500 hPa (i.e., ˜0.1 to 5.6 km altitude above sea level) and for time lags with respect to the IMF of up to 7 days. The signature propagates vertically between air pressure p ≥ 850 hPa (≤ 1.5 km) and p = 500 hPa (˜5.6 km). The characteristics of prompt response and vertical propagation within the troposphere have previously been seen in the correlation between the IMF and high-latitude air pressure anomalies, known as the Mansurov effect, at higher statistical significances (1%). We conclude that we have identified the temperature signature of the Mansurov effect in the Antarctic troposphere. Since these tropospheric anomalies have been associated with By-driven anomalies in the electric potential of the ionosphere, we further conclude that they are caused by IMF-induced changes to the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC). Our results support the view that variations in the ionospheric potential act on the troposphere via the action of resulting variations in the

Global distribution of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature variations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Steinbrecht

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This study gives an overview of interannual variations of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature. It is based on newer and longer records from the 1979 to 2001 Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV instruments, and on US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalyses. Multiple linear least squares regression is used to attribute variations to various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Usually, maps of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature variations look very similar, reflecting a very close coupling between the two. As a rule of thumb, a 10 Dobson Unit (DU change in total ozone corresponds to a 1 K change of 50 hPa temperature. Large variations come from the linear trend term, up to -30 DU or -1.5 K/decade, from terms related to polar vortex strength, up to 50 DU or 5 K (typical, minimum to maximum, from tropospheric meteorology, up to 30 DU or 3 K, or from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K. The 11-year solar cycle, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K, or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, up to 10 DU or 1 K, are contributing smaller variations. Stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to warming up to 3 K at low latitudes and to ozone depletion up to 40 DU at high latitudes. Variations attributed to QBO, polar vortex strength, and to a lesser degree to ENSO, exhibit an inverse correlation between low latitudes and higher latitudes. Variations related to the solar cycle or 400 hPa temperature, however, have the same sign over most of the globe. Variations are usually zonally symmetric at low and mid-latitudes, but asymmetric at high latitudes. There, position and strength of the stratospheric anti-cyclones over the Aleutians and south of Australia appear to vary with the phases of solar cycle, QBO or ENSO.
Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

2014-12-01

Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST
Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

2009-12-01

The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.
The role of trees and plantation agriculture in mitigating global ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Climate change refers to a paradigm shift in the climatic pattern of a location, region or planet which is linked with average weather components, such as temperature, wind patterns and precipitations. Climate change results in erratic events such as rising global temperature, intensified drought, flooding, cyclones, low or ...
Assimilation of Global Radar Backscatter and Radiometer Brightness Temperature Observations to Improve Soil Moisture and Land Evaporation Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Lievens, H.; Martens, B.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Hahn, S.; Reichle, R. H.; Miralles, D. G.

2017-01-01

Active radar backscatter (s?) observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and passive radiometer brightness temperature (TB) observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated either individually or jointly into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) to improve its simulations of soil moisture and land evaporation. To enable s? and TB assimilation, GLEAM is coupled to the Water Cloud Model and the L-band Microwave Emission from the Biosphere (L-MEB) model. The innovations, i.e. differences between observations and simulations, are mapped onto the model soil moisture states through an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The validation of surface (0-10 cm) soil moisture simulations over the period 2010-2014 against in situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) shows that assimilating s? or TB alone improves the average correlation of seasonal anomalies (Ran) from 0.514 to 0.547 and 0.548, respectively. The joint assimilation further improves Ran to 0.559. Associated enhancements in daily evaporative flux simulations by GLEAM are validated based on measurements from 22 FLUXNET stations. Again, the singular assimilation improves Ran from 0.502 to 0.536 and 0.533, respectively for s? and TB, whereas the best performance is observed for the joint assimilation (Ran = 0.546). These results demonstrate the complementary value of assimilating radar backscatter observations together with brightness temperatures for improving estimates of hydrological variables, as their joint assimilation outperforms the assimilation of each observation type separately.
Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelbrecht, Francois; Bopape, Mary-Jane; Naidoo, Mogesh; Garland, Rebecca; Adegoke, Jimmy; Thatcher, Marcus; McGregor, John; Katzfey, Jack; Werner, Micha; Ichoku, Charles; Gatebe, Charles

2015-01-01

An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4–6 °C over the subtropics and 3–5 °C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of
evaluation of land surface temperature parameterization ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

Surface temperature (Ts) is vital to the study of land-atmosphere interactions and ... representation of Ts in Global Climate Models using available ..... Obviously, the influence of the ambient .... diurnal cycle over land under clear and cloudy.
The Microwave Temperature Profiler (PERF)

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Boon; Mahoney, Michael; Haggerty, Julie; Denning, Richard

2013-01-01

The JPL developed Microwave Temperature Profiler (MTP) has recently participated in GloPac, HIPPO (I to V) and TORERO, and the ongoing ATTREX campaigns. The MTP is now capable of supporting the NASA Global Hawk and a new canister version supports the NCAR G-V. The primary product from the MTP is remote measurements of the atmospheric temperature at, above and below the flight path, providing for the vertical state of the atmosphere. The NCAR-MTP has demonstrated unprecedented instrument performance and calibration with plus or minus 0.2 degrees Kelvin flight level temperature error. Derived products include curtain plots, isentropes, lapse rate, cold point height and tropopause height.
Determination of plant growth rate and growth temperature range from measurement of physiological parameters

Science.gov (United States)

R. S. Criddle; B. N. Smith; L. D. Hansen; J. N. Church

2001-01-01

Many factors influence species range and diversity, but temperature and temperature variability are always major global determinants, irrespective of local constraints. On a global scale, the ranges of many taxa have been observed to increase and their diversity decrease with increasing latitude. On a local scale, gradients in species distribution are observable with...
Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Carey, J.C.; Tang, J.; Templer, P.H.; Kroeger, K.D.; Crowther, T.W.; Burton, A.J.; Dukes, J.S.; Emmett, B.; Frey, S.D.; Heskel, M.A.; Jiang, L.; Machmuller, M.B.; Mohan, J.; Panetta, A.M.; Reich, P.B.; Reinsch, S.; Wang, X.; Allison, S.D.; Bamminger, C.; Bridgham, S.; Collins, S.L.; de Dato, G.; Eddy, W.C.; Enquist, B.J.; Estiarte, M.; Harte, J.; Henderson, A.; Johnson, B.R.; Larsen, K.S.; Luo, Y.; Marhan, S.; Melillo, J.M.; Peñuelas, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Poll, C.; Rastetter, E.; Reinmann, A.B.; Reynolds, L.L.; Schmidt, I.K.; Shaver, G.R.; Strong, A.L.; Suseela, V.; Tietema, A.

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific
The effects of global climate change on fish and wildlife resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaRose, E.T.

1991-01-01

Climate models predict a global temperature rise of 3±1 degree C, a sea level rise of 0.5-1.0 m, increased frequency of extreme events, and possible doubling of ultraviolet B radiation by 2050. A significant decrease in precipitation will have the most important effect on fish and wildlife in the Great Plains region. Temperature change in the Great Plains region is likely to exceed the global average increase, due to lack of ocean buffering. Human competition for dwindling water resources is likely to exacerbate the impact on wildlife. Wetlands and waterfowl will be the most severely impacted groups on the Plains. The diversity of aquatic invertebrates is expected to decline, due to loss of brackish wetlands. A net decline in population of fish and amphibians is expected, due to the reduction in hydrologic regimes outweighing any temperature increase benefits. Loss of old growth, climax, and late successional stages is expected to be particularly severe. Rapid global climate change is expected to lead to a higher extinction rate. Effectiveness of existing protected areas is expected to decline
The dairy cow and global climate changes

OpenAIRE

Flávio Baccari Jr

2015-01-01

High producing dairy cows are more sensitive to heat stress due mainly to their higher resting metabolic rate as compared to low producing and dry cows. Their responses to increasing levels of the temperature-humidity and the black globe-humidity indices are discussed as well as some aspects of heat tolerance as related to body temperature increase and milk production decrease. Some mitigation and adaptation practices are recommended to face the challenges of global climate changes.
Is the enhancement of global warming important?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Symons, M.C.R.; Barrett, J.

2001-01-01

There is no doubt that global warming is important; without it the Earth's surface would have a mean temperature of 33 o C lower than it has currently. The IPCC maintains that human activities are to blame for the observed increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times. There are some doubts about whether global warming is being enhanced by the activities of the human race. This article reviews these doubts and the proposed remedies to the alleged enhancement. (author)
Native temperature regime influences soil response to simulated warming

Science.gov (United States)

Timothy G. Whitby; Michael D. Madritch

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase global temperatures and potentially increase soil carbon (C) mineralization, which could lead to a positive feedback between global warming and soil respiration. However the magnitude and spatial variability of belowground responses to warming are not yet fully understood. Some of the variability may depend...
Reassessing changes in diurnal temperature range: A new data set and characterization of data biases

Science.gov (United States)

Thorne, P. W.; Menne, M. J.; Williams, C. N.; Rennie, J. J.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Vose, R. S.; Peterson, T. C.; Durre, I.; Davy, R.; Esau, I.; Klein-Tank, A. M. G.; Merlone, A.

2016-05-01

It has been a decade since changes in diurnal temperature range (DTR) globally have been assessed in a stand-alone data analysis. The present study takes advantage of substantively improved basic data holdings arising from the International Surface Temperature Initiative's databank effort and applies the National Centers for Environmental Information's automated pairwise homogeneity assessment algorithm to reassess DTR records. It is found that breakpoints are more prevalent in DTR than other temperature elements and that the resulting adjustments have a broader distribution. This strongly implies that there is an overarching tendency, across the global meteorological networks, for nonclimatic artifacts to impart either random or anticorrelated rather than correlated biases in maximum and minimum temperature series. Future homogenization efforts would likely benefit from simultaneous consideration of DTR and maximum and minimum temperatures, in addition to average temperatures. Estimates of change in DTR are relatively insensitive to whether adjustments are calculated directly or inferred from adjustments returned for the maximum and minimum temperature series. The homogenized series exhibit a reduction in DTR since the midtwentieth century globally (-0.044 K/decade). Adjustments serve to approximately halve the long-term global reduction in DTR in the basic "raw" data. Most of the estimated DTR reduction occurred over 1960-1980. In several regions DTR has apparently increased over 1979-2012, while globally it has exhibited very little change (-0.016 K/decade). Estimated changes in DTR are an order of magnitude smaller than in maximum and minimum temperatures, which have both been increasing rapidly on multidecadal timescales (0.186 K/decade and 0.236 K/decade, respectively, since the midtwentieth century).
Transformation of India's transport sector under Global Warming of 2oC and 1.5oC Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, P.R.

2018-01-01

The Paris agreement stresses on concerted efforts to limit global temperature increase to 2°C and make efforts towards achieving 1.5°C temperature stabilization. Countries announced actions under the Nationally Determined Contributions outlining domestic mitigation actions to achieve the global...
Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deng, Yi [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2014-11-24

DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include
Reply to Stone Et Al.: Human-Made Role in Local Temperature Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto A.

2013-01-01

Stone et al. find that their analysis is unable to show a causal relation of local temperature anomalies, such as in Texas in 2011, with global warming. It was because of limitations in such local analyses that we reframed the problem in our report, separating the task of attribution of the causes of global warming from the task of quantifying changes in the likelihood of extreme local temperature anomalies.
Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

Science.gov (United States)

Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

2012-01-01

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.
Is Global Warming Likely to Cause an Increased Incidence of Malaria?

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by ...

OW NOAA AVHRR-GAC Sea-Surface Temperature

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The dataset contains satellite-derived sea-surface temperature measurements collected by means of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer - Global Area Coverage...
The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Khachatryan, S.

2009-05-01

Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.
Emergence of global scaling behaviour in the coupled Earth-atmosphere interaction

OpenAIRE

Fallah, Bijan; Saberi, Abbas Ali; Sodoudi, Sahar

2016-01-01

Scale invariance property in the global geometry of Earth may lead to a coupled interactive behaviour between various components of the climate system. One of the most interesting correlations exists between spatial statistics of the global topography and the temperature on Earth. Here we show that the power-law behaviour observed in the Earth topography via different approaches, resembles a scaling law in the global spatial distribution of independent atmospheric parameters. We report on obs...
Global fate of POPs: Current and future research directions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lohmann, Rainer; Breivik, Knut; Dachs, Jordi; Muir, Derek

2007-01-01

For legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), surprisingly little is still known in quantitative terms about their global sources and emissions. Atmospheric transport has been identified as the key global dispersal mechanism for most legacy POPs. In contrast, transport by ocean currents may prove to be the main transport route for many polar, emerging POPs. This is linked to the POPs' intrinsic physico-chemical properties, as exemplified by the different fate of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Arctic. Similarly, our current understanding of POPs' global transport and fate remains sketchy. The importance of organic carbon and global temperature differences have been accepted as key drivers of POPs' global distribution. However, future research will need to understand the various biogeochemical and geophysical cycles under anthropogenic pressures to be able to understand and predict the global fate of POPs accurately. - Future studies into the global fate of POPs will need to pay more attention to the various biogeochemical and anthropogenic cycles to better understand emissions, transport and sinks
Nitrous oxide flux under changing temperature and CO2

Science.gov (United States)

We are investigating nitrous oxide flux seasonal trends and response to temperature and CO2 increases in a boreal peatland. Peatlands located in boreal regions make up a third of global wetland area and are expected to have the highest temperature increases in response to climat...
Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongxiang Zhang

Full Text Available Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night, simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature, maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.
Life stage-specific effects of the fungicide pyrimethanil and temperature on the snail Physella acuta (Draparnaud, 1805) disclose the pitfalls for the aquatic risk assessment under global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seeland, Anne; Albrand, Jennifer; Oehlmann, Jörg; Müller, Ruth

2013-01-01

It can be suggested that the combined stress of pesticide pollution and suboptimal temperature influences the sensitivity of life stages of aquatic invertebrates differently. The embryo, juvenile, half- and full-life-cycle toxicity tests performed with the snail Physella acuta at different concentrations (0.06–0.5 or 1.0 mg L −1 ) of the model fungicide pyrimethanil at 15, 20 and 25 °C revealed, that pyrimethanil caused concentration-dependent effects at all test temperatures. Interestingly, the ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil was higher at lower (suboptimal) temperature for embryo hatching and F 1 reproduction, but its ecotoxicity for juvenile growth and F 0 reproduction increased with increasing temperature. The life-stage specific temperature-dependent ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil and the high fungicide susceptibility of the invasive snail clearly demonstrate the complexity of pesticide–temperature interactions and the challenge to draw conclusions for the risk of pesticides under the impact of global climate change. -- Highlights: ► Physella acuta reacts highly sensitively to exposure to pyrimethanil. ► The ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil is life-stage specific. ► Pyrimethanil and temperature stress influenced the development interactively. -- The aquatic risk of pesticides under climate change cannot be adequately assessed by recent strategies for the regular risk assessment of agrochemicals
Nutrients and temperature additively increase stream microbial respiration

Science.gov (United States)

David W. P. Manning; Amy D. Rosemond; Vladislav Gulis; Jonathan P. Benstead; John S. Kominoski

2017-01-01

Rising temperatures and nutrient enrichment are coâoccurring globalâchange drivers that stimulate microbial respiration of detrital carbon, but nutrient effects on the temperature dependence of respiration in aquatic ecosystems remain uncertain. We measured respiration rates associated with leaf litter, wood, and fine benthic organic matter (FBOM) across...
Simulative Global Warming Negatively Affects Cotton Fiber Length through Shortening Fiber Rapid Elongation Duration.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Yanjiao; Yang, Jiashuo; Hu, Wei; Zahoor, Rizwan; Chen, Binglin; Zhao, Wenqing; Meng, Yali; Zhou, Zhiguo

2017-08-23

Global warming could possibly increase the air temperature by 1.8-4.0 °C in the coming decade. Cotton fiber is an essential raw material for the textile industry. Fiber length, which was found negatively related to the excessively high temperature, determines yarn quality to a great extent. To investigate the effects of global warming on cotton fiber length and its mechaism, cottons grown in artificially elevated temperature (34.6/30.5 °C, T day /T night ) and ambient temperature (31.6/27.3 °C) regions have been investigated. Becaused of the high sensitivities of enzymes V-ATPase, PEPC, and genes GhXTH1 and GhXTH2 during fiber elongation when responding to high temperature stress, the fiber rapid elongation duration (FRED) has been shortened, which led to a significant suppression on final fiber length. Through comprehensive analysis, T night had a great influence on fiber elongation, which means T n could be deemed as an ideal index for forecasting the degree of high temperature stress would happen to cotton fiber property in future. Therefore, we speculate the global warming would bring unfavorable effects on cotton fiber length, which needs to take actions in advance for minimizing the loss in cotton production.
The effect of temperature on growth and competition between Sphagnum species.

Science.gov (United States)

Breeuwer, Angela; Heijmans, Monique M P D; Robroek, Bjorn J M; Berendse, Frank

2008-05-01

Peat bogs play a large role in the global sequestration of C, and are often dominated by different Sphagnum species. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how Sphagnum vegetation in peat bogs will respond to global warming. We performed a greenhouse experiment to study the effect of four temperature treatments (11.2, 14.7, 18.0 and 21.4 degrees C) on the growth of four Sphagnum species: S. fuscum and S. balticum from a site in northern Sweden and S. magellanicum and S. cuspidatum from a site in southern Sweden. In addition, three combinations of these species were made to study the effect of temperature on competition. We found that all species increased their height increment and biomass production with an increase in temperature, while bulk densities were lower at higher temperatures. The hollow species S. cuspidatum was the least responsive species, whereas the hummock species S. fuscum increased biomass production 13-fold from the lowest to the highest temperature treatment in monocultures. Nutrient concentrations were higher at higher temperatures, especially N concentrations of S. fuscum and S. balticum increased compared to field values. Competition between S. cuspidatum and S. magellanicum was not influenced by temperature. The mixtures of S. balticum with S. fuscum and S. balticum with S. magellanicum showed that S. balticum was the stronger competitor, but it lost competitive advantage in the highest temperature treatment. These findings suggest that species abundances will shift in response to global warming, particularly at northern sites where hollow species will lose competitive strength relative to hummock species and southern species.
The effect of temperature on growth and competition between Sphagnum species

Science.gov (United States)

Heijmans, Monique M. P. D.; Robroek, Bjorn J. M.; Berendse, Frank

2008-01-01

Peat bogs play a large role in the global sequestration of C, and are often dominated by different Sphagnum species. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how Sphagnum vegetation in peat bogs will respond to global warming. We performed a greenhouse experiment to study the effect of four temperature treatments (11.2, 14.7, 18.0 and 21.4°C) on the growth of four Sphagnum species: S. fuscum and S. balticum from a site in northern Sweden and S. magellanicum and S. cuspidatum from a site in southern Sweden. In addition, three combinations of these species were made to study the effect of temperature on competition. We found that all species increased their height increment and biomass production with an increase in temperature, while bulk densities were lower at higher temperatures. The hollow species S. cuspidatum was the least responsive species, whereas the hummock species S. fuscum increased biomass production 13-fold from the lowest to the highest temperature treatment in monocultures. Nutrient concentrations were higher at higher temperatures, especially N concentrations of S. fuscum and S. balticum increased compared to field values. Competition between S. cuspidatum and S. magellanicum was not influenced by temperature. The mixtures of S. balticum with S. fuscum and S. balticum with S. magellanicum showed that S. balticum was the stronger competitor, but it lost competitive advantage in the highest temperature treatment. These findings suggest that species abundances will shift in response to global warming, particularly at northern sites where hollow species will lose competitive strength relative to hummock species and southern species. PMID:18283501
Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the
Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun

2017-10-01

Global warming of 2 °C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 °C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 °C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 × 106 km2, which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 × 106 km2 (north of 45°N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34-2.67 °C on area average relative to 1990-2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42-0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24-26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8-15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models.
Global Warming on Triton

Science.gov (United States)

Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;

1998-01-01

Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

Soil Temperature Manipulation to Study Global Warming Effects in Arable Land

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Patil, R H; Laegdsmand, M; Olesen, Jørgen E

2013-01-01

in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005℃ between heated and control......-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....
Soil temperature manipulation to study global warming effects in arable land

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Patil, Raveendra H.; Laegdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

2013-01-01

in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005 oC between heated...... that of above-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....
Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Cuffey, Kurt M.; Clow, Gary D.; Steig, Eric J.; Buizert, Christo; Fudge, T.J.; Koutnik, Michelle; Waddington, Edwin D.; Alley, Richard B.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

The most recent glacial to interglacial transition constitutes a remarkable natural experiment for learning how Earth’s climate responds to various forcings, including a rise in atmospheric CO2. This transition has left a direct thermal remnant in the polar ice sheets, where the exceptional purity and continual accumulation of ice permit analyses not possible in other settings. For Antarctica, the deglacial warming has previously been constrained only by the water isotopic composition in ice cores, without an absolute thermometric assessment of the isotopes’ sensitivity to temperature. To overcome this limitation, we measured temperatures in a deep borehole and analyzed them together with ice-core data to reconstruct the surface temperature history of West Antarctica. The deglacial warming was 11.3±1.8∘">11.3±1.8∘11.3±1.8∘C, approximately two to three times the global average, in agreement with theoretical expectations for Antarctic amplification of planetary temperature changes. Consistent with evidence from glacier retreat in Southern Hemisphere mountain ranges, the Antarctic warming was mostly completed by 15 kyBP, several millennia earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. These results constrain the role of variable oceanic heat transport between hemispheres during deglaciation and quantitatively bound the direct influence of global climate forcings on Antarctic temperature. Although climate models perform well on average in this context, some recent syntheses of deglacial climate history have underestimated Antarctic warming and the models with lowest sensitivity can be discounted.
Local chemical potential, local hardness, and dual descriptors in temperature dependent chemical reactivity theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Franco-Pérez, Marco; Ayers, Paul W; Gázquez, José L; Vela, Alberto

2017-05-31

In this work we establish a new temperature dependent procedure within the grand canonical ensemble, to avoid the Dirac delta function exhibited by some of the second order chemical reactivity descriptors based on density functional theory, at a temperature of 0 K. Through the definition of a local chemical potential designed to integrate to the global temperature dependent electronic chemical potential, the local chemical hardness is expressed in terms of the derivative of this local chemical potential with respect to the average number of electrons. For the three-ground-states ensemble model, this local hardness contains a term that is equal to the one intuitively proposed by Meneses, Tiznado, Contreras and Fuentealba, which integrates to the global hardness given by the difference in the first ionization potential, I, and the electron affinity, A, at any temperature. However, in the present approach one finds an additional temperature-dependent term that introduces changes at the local level and integrates to zero. Additionally, a τ-hard dual descriptor and a τ-soft dual descriptor given in terms of the product of the global hardness and the global softness multiplied by the dual descriptor, respectively, are derived. Since all these reactivity indices are given by expressions composed of terms that correspond to products of the global properties multiplied by the electrophilic or nucleophilic Fukui functions, they may be useful for studying and comparing equivalent sites in different chemical environments.
Global warming: What should we do to stop or slow?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guenalp, B.

2006-01-01

Earth is warming much faster than had been predicted. 2005 was the warmest year on record, surpassing 1998. The multinational Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report recently concluded that in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia, average temperatures have increased 3 to 4 degrees Celsius in the past 50 years. Rising temperatures have a dramatic impact on Arctic ice. Since 1978 Arctic sea ice area has shrunk by some 9 percent per decade, and thinned as well. There are three specific events especially worrisome and potentially imminent, although the time frames are a matter of dispute: dramatic sea level rise by the end of the century that would take tens of thousand years to reverse; widespread coral bleaching that could be damage the world's fisheries within three decades; and, within 200 years, a shutdown of the ocean current that moderates temperatures in northern Europe. Global warming is caused by human activities such as burning nature's vast store of coal, oil and nature gas which releases billions of tones carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) every year. If current trends continue, we will raise atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to double pre-industrial levels during this century. That will probably be enough to raise global temperatures by around 2 degree C to 5 degree C. Even if humans stop burning oil and coal tomorrow we have already spewed enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to cause temperatures to warm and sea levels to rise for at least another century. So what should we do? We can not continue drawing energy from fossil fuels and there is no chance that the renewable, wind, tide, and water power can provide enough energy and in time. Nuclear energy is the only one immediately available source does not cause global warming. In this presentation consequences and risks of global warming, as well as nuclear power comparisons will be discussed comprehensively
Low Temperature Cure Powder Coatings (LTCPC)

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

Dr. Glen Merfeld, General Electric Global Research evaluated and optimized the formulation, and cure and performance parameters of candidate LTCPC...Unacceptable test result = Marginal test result = Acceptable test result 80 therefore suffer from brittleness at extremely low temperatures. NASA’s

CO2 and solar radiation: cause of global warming?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayona Gabriel; Garcia, Yuri C.; Sarmiento Heiner R

2010-01-01

A cause-effect relationship between global temperature as a climatic change indicator and some of the main forcing mechanisms (Atmospheric CO 2 concentration, solar radiation and volcanic activity) are analyzed in this paper through time series analysis for the 1610-1990 AD period comparing trends and variability for the frequency spectrums. Temperature seems to fit the CO 2 trend for the last century, but we found no cause-effect relationship for this interval. The frequency analysis shows a correlation between radiation and temperature for a period of 22 years. Volcanism presents an inverse relationship with temperature better seen at a decadal scale.
Temperature variations as evidence of climate change in northern ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The paper seeks to investigate whether evolving temperature patterns over northern Nigeria agree with the projections made by global warming and climate change models. The data used are screen air temperature on a monthly time scale. These data were obtained from the database of the Nigerian Meteorological ...
Is global warming mostly at night?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kukla, G.; Quayle, R.G.; Karl, T.

1994-01-01

The release of greenhouse gases is expected to lead to substantial future warming. The global mean temperature has indeed risen in recent decades. The causes of the observed warming, and its relation to the greenhouse gas buildup are, however, still debated. One important aspect of the observed temperature change relates to its asymmetry during the day and night. The day-night temperature difference over land in North America, most of Eurasia, Oceania, and portions of Africa and Australia shows a decrease since about 1950. The changes of the daily mean temperature in these areas are principally due to the rising night or early morning temperature, and are accompanied by increasing cloudiness. Their results support the notion that the increase of cloud cover, possibly due to industrial sulfur emissions, mitigates the greenhouse warming. The causes of the changing diurnal temperature range and of the increasing cloudiness will have to be clarified and the future SO 2 emissions reliably projected before any trustworthy prediction of future climates can be made. 37 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs
Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

2013-05-16

Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.
Scaling behaviour of the global tropopause

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Varotsos

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis is applied to the time series of the global tropopause height derived from the 1980–2004 daily radiosonde data, in order to detect long-range correlations in its time evolution.

Global tropopause height fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time intervals in a power-law fashion. The exponent of this dependence is larger in the tropics than in the middle and high latitudes in both hemispheres. Greater persistence is observed in the tropopause of the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. A plausible physical explanation of the fact that long-range correlations in tropopause variability decreases with increasing latitude is that the column ozone fluctuations (that are closely related with the tropopause ones exhibit long range correlations, which are larger in tropics than in the middle and high latitudes at long time scales.

This finding for the tropopause height variability should reduce the existing uncertainties in assessing the climatic characteristics. More specifically the reliably modelled values of a climatic variable (i.e. past and future simulations must exhibit the same scaling behaviour with that possibly existing in the real observations of the variable under consideration. An effort has been made to this end by applying the detrended fluctuation analysis to the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature anomalies during the period January 1850–August 2008. The result obtained supports the findings presented above, notably: the correlations between the fluctuations in the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature display scaling behaviour which must characterizes any projection.
The Global Carbon Cycle: It's a Small World

Science.gov (United States)

Ineson, Philip; Milcu, Alexander; Subke, Jens-Arne; Wildman, Dennis; Anderson, Robert; Manning, Peter; Heinemeyer, Andreas

2010-05-01

Predicting future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), together with the impacts of these changes on global climate, are some of the most urgent and important challenges facing mankind. Modelling is the only way in which such predictions can be made, leading to the current generation of increasingly complex computer simulations, with associated concerns about embedded assumptions and conflicting model outputs. Alongside analysis of past climates, the GCMs currently represent our only hope of establishing the importance of potential runaway positive feedbacks linking climate change and atmospheric greenhouse gases yet the incorporation of necessary biospheric responses into GCMs markedly increases the uncertainty of predictions. Analysis of the importance of the major components of the global carbon (C) cycle reveals that an understanding of the conditions under which the terrestrial biosphere could switch from an overall carbon (C) sink to a source is critical to our ability to make future climate predictions. Here we present an alternative approach to assessing the short term biotic (plant and soil) sensitivities to elevated temperature and atmospheric CO2 through the use of a purely physical analogue. Centred on the concept of materially-closed systems containing scaled-down ratios of the global C stocks for the atmosphere, vegetation and soil we show that, in these model systems, the terrestrial biosphere is able to buffer a rise of 3oC even when coupled to very strong CO2-temperature positive feedbacks. The system respiratory response appears to be extremely well linked to temperature and is critical in deciding atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Simulated anthropogenic emissions of CO2 into the model systems showed an initial corresponding increase in atmospheric CO2 but, somewhat surprisingly, CO2 concentrations levelled off at ca. 480 p.p.m.v., despite continuing additions of CO2. Experiments were performed in which reversion of atmospheric
The mass-temperature relation for clusters of galaxies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hjorth, J.; Oukbir, J.; van Kampen, E.

1998-01-01

A tight mass-temperature relation, M(r)/r proportional to T-x, is expected in most cosmological models if clusters of galaxies are homologous and the intracluster gas is in global equilibrium with the dark matter. We here calibrate this relation using eight clusters with well-defined global tempe...... redshift, the relation represents a new tool for determination of cosmological parameters, notably the cosmological constant Lambda....
GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...
Comparison of temperature calculations for an arbitrary high-level waste disposal configuration in salt formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kevenaar, J.W.A.M.; Janssen, L.G.J.; Ploumen, P.; Winske, P.

1979-05-01

The objective of this report is the comparison of the results of temperature analyses for an arbitrary high-level radioactive waste disposal configuration in salt formations. The analyses were carried out at the RWTH and ECN. The computer programs used are based on finite difference and finite element techniques. From the local temperature analyses that were intended to check the solution techniques, it could be concluded that both finite difference and finite elements are capable to analyse this type of problems. From the global temperature analyses it could be concluded that both analysis approaches: temperature dependent and iteratively determined temperature independent material properties, are suited to analyse the global temperature distribution in the salt formation
Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds

Science.gov (United States)

Keogan, Katharine; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Phillips, Richard A.; Walling, Craig A.; Agnew, Philippa; Ainley, David G.; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Ballard, Grant; Barrett, Robert T.; Barton, Kerry J.; Bech, Claus; Becker, Peter; Berglund, Per-Arvid; Bollache, Loïc; Bond, Alexander L.; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Bradley, Russell W.; Burr, Zofia M.; Camphuysen, Kees; Catry, Paulo; Chiaradia, Andre; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Cuthbert, Richard; Dehnhard, Nina; Descamps, Sébastien; Diamond, Tony; Divoky, George; Drummond, Hugh; Dugger, Katie M.; Dunn, Michael J.; Emmerson, Louise; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Fort, Jérôme; Fraser, William; Genovart, Meritxell; Gilg, Olivier; González-Solís, Jacob; Granadeiro, José Pedro; Grémillet, David; Hansen, Jannik; Hanssen, Sveinn A.; Harris, Mike; Hedd, April; Hinke, Jefferson; Igual, José Manuel; Jahncke, Jaime; Jones, Ian; Kappes, Peter J.; Lang, Johannes; Langset, Magdalene; Lescroël, Amélie; Lorentsen, Svein-Hâkon; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Mallory, Mark; Moe, Børge; Montevecchi, William A.; Monticelli, David; Mostello, Carolyn; Newell, Mark; Nicholson, Lisa; Nisbet, Ian; Olsson, Olof; Oro, Daniel; Pattison, Vivian; Poisbleau, Maud; Pyk, Tanya; Quintana, Flavio; Ramos, Jaime A.; Ramos, Raül; Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin; Rodríguez, Cristina; Ryan, Peter; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Schmidt, Niels M.; Shannon, Paula; Sittler, Benoit; Southwell, Colin; Surman, Christopher; Svagelj, Walter S.; Trivelpiece, Wayne; Warzybok, Pete; Watanuki, Yutaka; Weimerskirch, Henri; Wilson, Peter R.; Wood, Andrew G.; Phillimore, Albert B.; Lewis, Sue

2018-04-01

Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity1, and is often sensitive to climatic conditions2. Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey3. This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers4. However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction5. Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr-1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days °C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources2.
GHRSST Level 4 GAMSSA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Australian Bureau...
GHRSST Level 4 OSPO Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Office of...
Delayed CTD and XBT data assembled and submitted by the Canada Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) for the Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Program (GTSPP), dates range from 06/08/1979 - 05/25/2010 (NODC Accession 0065272)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Integrated Science Data Management (ISDM) office processes oceanographic profiles for the world oceans and submits these data to the Global Temperature and...
Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. A. Tenreiro Machado

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.
Seasonal Changes in Central England Temperatures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Proietti, Tommaso; Hillebrand, Eric

The aim of this paper is to assess how climate change is reflected in the variation of the seasonal patterns of the monthly Central England Temperature time series between 1772 and 2013. In particular, we model changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Starting from the seminal work...... by Thomson (“The Seasons, Global Temperature and Precession”, Science, 7 April 1995, vol 268, p. 59–68), a number of studies have documented a shift in the phase of the annual cycle implying an earlier onset of the spring season at various European locations. A significant reduction in the amplitude...... and stochastic trends, as well as seasonally varying autocorrelation and residual variances. The model can be summarized as containing a permanent and a transitory component, where global warming is captured in the permanent component, on which the seasons load differentially. The phase of the seasonal cycle...
Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

2016-02-26

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to
Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

2016-01-01

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to
Carbon plants nutrition and global food security

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, Luigi

2017-02-01

To evaluate the effects of carbon nutrition on agricultural productivity, a physiological-process-based crop simulation model, driven by the 1961-1990 monthly climate data from global FAO dataset, was developed and applied to four crops (wheat, maize, rice and soybean -WMRS) which account for 64% of the global caloric consumption of humans. Five different temperatures and CO2 scenarios (current; glacial; pre-industrial; future_1 with 560 ppmv for CO2 and +2 °C for temperature; and future_2 with 800 ppmv for CO2 and +4 °C) were investigated. The relative values of WMRS global productions for past and future scenarios were, respectively, 49% of the present-day scenario for glacial, 82% for pre-industrial, 115% for future_1 and 124% for future_2. A sensitive growth of productivity of future scenarios (respectively to 117% and 134%) was observed if the northward shift of crops was allowed, and a strong increase was obtained without water limitation (from 151% to 157% for the five scenarios) and without biotic and abiotic stresses (from 30% to 40% for WMRS subject to the current scenario). Furthermore since the beginning of the Green Revolution (roughly happened between the '30s and the '50s of the twentieth century) production losses due to sub-optimal levels of CO2 and to biotic and abiotic stresses have been masked by the strong technological innovation trend still ongoing, which, in the last century, led to a strong increase in the global crop production (+400%-600%). These results show the crucial relevance of the future choices of research and development in agriculture (genetics, land reclamation, irrigation, plant protection, and so on) to ensure global food security.
Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph. Buongiorno

2016-01-01

This paper explored the potential long-term effects of a warming climate on the global wood sector, based on Way and Oren's synthesis (Tree Physiology 30,669-688) indicating positive responses of tree growth to higher temperature in boreal and temperative climates, and negative responses in the topics.Â Changes in forest productivity were introduced in the Global...
Global estimates of evapotranspiration and gross primary production based on MODIS and global meteorology data

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Bonnefond, J.-M.; Chen, J.; Davis, K.; Desai, A.R.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Gianelle, D.; Rossi, F.; Suyker, A.E.; Verma, S.B.

2010-01-01

The simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales remains a major challenge for quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency model, called EC-LUE, driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux. The EC-LUE model may have the most potential to adequately address the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP because its parameters (i.e., the potential light use efficiency and optimal plant growth temperature) are invariant across the various land cover types. However, the application of the previous EC-LUE model was hampered by poor prediction of Bowen ratio at the large spatial scale. In this study, we substituted the Bowen ratio with the ratio of evapotranspiration (ET) to net radiation, and revised the RS-PM (Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith) model for quantifying ET. Fifty-four eddy covariance towers, including various ecosystem types, were selected to calibrate and validate the revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models. The revised RS-PM model explained 82% and 68% of the observed variations of ET for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. Using estimated ET as input, the EC-LUE model performed well in calibration and validation sites, explaining 75% and 61% of the observed GPP variation for calibration and validation sites respectively.Global patterns of ET and GPP at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.6° longitude during the years 2000–2003 were determined using the global MERRA dataset (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global estimates of ET and GPP agreed well with the other global models from the literature, with the highest ET and GPP over tropical forests and the lowest values in dry and high latitude areas. However, comparisons with observed

Microhabitat effects of litter temperature and moisture on forest-floor invertebrate communities

Science.gov (United States)

Tim A. Christiansen; Sue A. Perry; William B. Perry

1996-01-01

Litter temperature and moisture may be altered due to changes in global climate. We investigated the effect of small changes in litter temperature and moisture on forest-floor communities in West Virginia.
A spatiotemporal analysis of the relationship between near-surface air temperature and satellite land surface temperatures using 17 years of data from the ATSR series

Science.gov (United States)

Good, Elizabeth J.; Ghent, Darren J.; Bulgin, Claire E.; Remedios, John J.

2017-09-01

The relationship between satellite land surface temperature (LST) and ground-based observations of 2 m air temperature (T2m) is characterized in space and time using >17 years of data. The analysis uses a new monthly LST climate data record (CDR) based on the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer series, which has been produced within the European Space Agency GlobTemperature project (http://www.globtemperature.info/). Global LST-T2m differences are analyzed with respect to location, land cover, vegetation fraction, and elevation, all of which are found to be important influencing factors. LSTnight ( 10 P.M. local solar time, clear-sky only) is found to be closely coupled with minimum T2m (Tmin, all-sky) and the two temperatures generally consistent to within ±5°C (global median LSTnight-Tmin = 1.8°C, interquartile range = 3.8°C). The LSTday ( 10 A.M. local solar time, clear-sky only)-maximum T2m (Tmax, all-sky) variability is higher (global median LSTday-Tmax = -0.1°C, interquartile range = 8.1°C) because LST is strongly influenced by insolation and surface regime. Correlations for both temperature pairs are typically >0.9 outside of the tropics. The monthly global and regional anomaly time series of LST and T2m—which are completely independent data sets—compare remarkably well. The correlation between the data sets is 0.9 for the globe with 90% of the CDR anomalies falling within the T2m 95% confidence limits. The results presented in this study present a justification for increasing use of satellite LST data in climate and weather science, both as an independent variable, and to augment T2m data acquired at meteorological stations.
Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Fita, Lluís; Bormann, Kathryn J.

2014-04-01

This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment.
Experiments with duckweed-moth systems suggest global warming may reduce rather than promote herbivory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heide, van Tj.; Roijackers, R.M.M.; Peeters, E.T.H.M.; Nes, van E.H.

2006-01-01

1. Wilf & Labandeira (1999)suggested that increased temperatures because of global warming will cause an increase in herbivory by insects. This conclusion was based on the supposed effect of temperature on herbivores but did not consider an effect of temperature on plant growth. 2. We studied
Comments on possible causes of recent global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffy, P.B.

1992-01-01

The researcher shows that recent global temperature changes cannot be due to solar luminosity variations coincident with changes in solar cycle amplitudes, since this would violate causality. In addition, a related suggestion using solar cycle lengths instead of amplitudes appears highly unlikely, since time lags between changes in the cycle lengths and observed temperatures are very different from those calculated with a climate model. Finally, lag correlations between historical land and sea temperates indicate that ocean temperatures follow land temperatures by 15 or 20 yr. This means that the oceans' response time must be at least this long, if these temperature changes are due to some change in external forcing. It also suggests that this is in fact the case, since ''natural'' climate variations might well entail SSTs changing before LATs, which is not observed
Land surface skin temperature climatology: benefitting from the strengths of satellite observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Menglin; Dickinson, Robert E

2010-01-01

Surface skin temperature observations (T skin ), as obtained by satellite remote sensing, provide useful climatological information of high spatial resolution and global coverage that enhances the traditional ground observations of surface air temperature (T air ) and so, reveal new information about land surface characteristics. This letter analyzes nine years of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) skin temperature observations to present monthly skin temperature diurnal, seasonal, and inter-annual variations at a 0.05 deg. latitude/longitude grid over the global land surface and combines these measurements with other MODIS-based variables in an effort to understand the physical mechanisms responsible for T skin variations. In particular, skin temperature variations are found to be closely related to vegetation cover, clouds, and water vapor, but to differ from 2 m surface T air in terms of both physical meaning and magnitude. Therefore, the two temperatures (T skin and T air ) are complementary in their contribution of valuable information to the study of climate change.
Crossing regimes of temperature dependence in animal movement.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibert, Jean P; Chelini, Marie-Claire; Rosenthal, Malcolm F; DeLong, John P

2016-05-01

A pressing challenge in ecology is to understand the effects of changing global temperatures on food web structure and dynamics. The stability of these complex ecological networks largely depends on how predator-prey interactions may respond to temperature changes. Because predators and prey rely on their velocities to catch food or avoid being eaten, understanding how temperatures may affect animal movement is central to this quest. Despite our efforts, we still lack a mechanistic understanding of how the effect of temperature on metabolic processes scales up to animal movement and beyond. Here, we merge a biomechanical approach, the Metabolic Theory of Ecology and empirical data to show that animal movement displays multiple regimes of temperature dependence. We also show that crossing these regimes has important consequences for population dynamics and stability, which depend on the parameters controlling predator-prey interactions. We argue that this dependence upon interaction parameters may help explain why experimental work on the temperature dependence of interaction strengths has so far yielded conflicting results. More importantly, these changes in the temperature dependence of animal movement can have consequences that go well beyond ecological interactions and affect, for example, animal communication, mating, sensory detection, and any behavioral modality dependent on the movement of limbs. Finally, by not taking into account the changes in temperature dependence reported here we might not be able to properly forecast the impact of global warming on ecological processes and propose appropriate mitigation action when needed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bala, G. [Indian Institute of Science, Divecha Center for Climate Change, Bangalore (India); Indian Institute of Science, Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India); Caldeira, Ken; Cao, Long; Ban-Weiss, George; Shin, Ho-Jeong [Carnegie Institution, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, CA (United States); Nemani, Rama [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States)

2011-09-15

Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO{sub 2} changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management ''geoengineering'' proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale. (orig.)
Simulation of spontaneous and variable global dust storms with the GFDL Mars GCM

OpenAIRE

Basu, Shabari; Wilson, John; Richardson, Mark; Ingersoll, Andrew

2006-01-01

We report on the successful simulation of global dust storms in a general circulation model. The simulated storms develop spontaneously in multiyear simulations and exhibit significant interannual variability. The simulated storms produce dramatic increases in atmospheric dustiness, global-mean air temperatures, and atmospheric circulation intensity, in accord with observations. As with observed global storms, spontaneous initiation of storms in the model occurs in southern spring and summer,...
Global fate of POPs: Current and future research directions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lohmann, Rainer [Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882-1197 (United States)], E-mail: lohmann@gso.uri.edu; Breivik, Knut [Norwegian Institute for Air Research, PO Box 100, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); University of Oslo, Department of Chemistry, PO Box 1033, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Dachs, Jordi [Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Chemical and Environmental Research (IIQAB-CSIC), Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona 08034 (Spain); Muir, Derek [Aquatic Ecosystem Protection Research Division, Environment Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, ON L7R4A6 (Canada)

2007-11-15

For legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants (POPs), surprisingly little is still known in quantitative terms about their global sources and emissions. Atmospheric transport has been identified as the key global dispersal mechanism for most legacy POPs. In contrast, transport by ocean currents may prove to be the main transport route for many polar, emerging POPs. This is linked to the POPs' intrinsic physico-chemical properties, as exemplified by the different fate of hexachlorocyclohexanes in the Arctic. Similarly, our current understanding of POPs' global transport and fate remains sketchy. The importance of organic carbon and global temperature differences have been accepted as key drivers of POPs' global distribution. However, future research will need to understand the various biogeochemical and geophysical cycles under anthropogenic pressures to be able to understand and predict the global fate of POPs accurately. - Future studies into the global fate of POPs will need to pay more attention to the various biogeochemical and anthropogenic cycles to better understand emissions, transport and sinks.
Low frequency temperature forcing of chemical oscillations.

Science.gov (United States)

Novak, Jan; Thompson, Barnaby W; Wilson, Mark C T; Taylor, Annette F; Britton, Melanie M

2011-07-14

The low frequency forcing of chemical oscillations by temperature is investigated experimentally in the Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction and in simulations of the Oregonator model with Arrhenius temperature dependence of the rate constants. Forcing with temperature leads to modulation of the chemical frequency. The number of response cycles per forcing cycle is given by the ratio of the natural frequency to the forcing frequency and phase locking is only observed in simulations when this ratio is a whole number and the forcing amplitude is small. The global temperature forcing of flow-distributed oscillations in a tubular reactor is also investigated and synchronisation is observed in the variation of band position with the external signal, reflecting the periodic modulation of chemical oscillations by temperature.
Heating GLOBAL vs LOCAL Contamination. Problematic National

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turtos Carbonell, Leonor; Fernandez Rondon, Manuel; Meneses Ruiz, Elieza; Rivero Oliva, Jesus; Diaz Rivero, Norberto; Sanchez Gacita, Madeleine; Curbelo Garea, Lariza

2007-01-01

The tendency of growth year after year of the half temperature of the planet in correspondence with the increase of the concentrations of gases of greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, is an unequivocal sign that the greenhouse effect and its consequence, the one global heating, is a threat that hangs on the Earth. At national level and international conscience of this situation is won and the actions are increased directed to to mitigate it. The contribution of the energy sector to these emissions is considerable. The work it analyzes the contribution from Cuba to the global climatic change
Modeling the Acceleration of Global Surface Temperture

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, B.

2017-12-01

A mathematical projection focusing on the changing rate of acceleration of Global Surface Temperatures. Using historical trajectory and informed expert near-term prediction, it is possible to extend this further forward drawing a reference arc of acceleration. Presented here is an example of this technique based on data found in the Summary of Findings of A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011 and that same team's stated prediction to 2050. With this, we can project a curve showing future acceleration: Decade (midpoint) Change in Global Land Temp Degrees C Known Slope Projected Trend 1755 0.000 1955 0.600 0.0030 2005 1.500 0.0051 2045 3.000 0.0375 2095 5.485 0.0497 2145 8.895 0.0682 2195 13.488 0.0919 Observations: Slopes are getting steeper and doing so faster in an "acceleration of the acceleration" or an "arc of acceleration". This is consistent with the non-linear accelerating feedback loops of global warming. Such projected temperatures threaten human civilization and human life. This `thumbnail' projection is consistent with the other long term predictions based on anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This projection is low when compared to those whose forecasts include greenhouse gases released from thawing permafrost and clathrate hydrates. A reference line: This curve should be considered a point of reference. In the near term and absent significant drawdown of greenhouse gases, my "bet" for this AGU session is that future temperatures will generally be above this reference curve. For example, the decade ending 2020 - more than 1.9C and the decade ending 2030 - more than 2.3C - again measured from the 1750 start point. *Caveat: The long term curve and prediction assumes that mankind does not move quickly away from high cost fossil fuels and does not invent, mobilize and take actions drawing down greenhouse gases. Those seeking a comprehensive action plan are directed to drawdown.org
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

Science.gov (United States)

Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...
Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires
Delayed CTD and XBT data assembled and submitted by the Canada Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) for the Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Program (GTSPP), dates range from 04-08-1929 to 08-18-2004 (NODC Accession 0001869)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Integrated Science Data Management (ISDM) office processes oceanographic profiles for the world oceans and submits these data to the Global Temperature and...
A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

1994-01-01

A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)
European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Strandberg, Gustav; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Jacob, Daniela; Keuler, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Schär, Christoph; Somot, Samuel; Sørland, Silje Lund; Teichmann, Claas; Vautard, Robert

2018-05-01

We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 °C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 °C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to
Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

Science.gov (United States)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.
Cost of global warming may be 'sin' taxes on CO 2 use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilson, Cliff.

1995-01-01

One suggested solution for curbing carbon dioxide emissions and thus stopping the so-called greenhouse effect is taxing the emissions. A meeting in Maastrict, The Netherlands, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared that greenhouse emissions are putting the worlds climate at serious risk. The panel called on both industry and governments to act 'urgently' to deal with the threat. For some who have been watching world temperature closely, all of this concern may seem a bit strange. Worldwide temperatures had cooled by approximately 0.08 degrees Fahrenheit in the five years between 1987 and 1992, perhaps the strongest arguments for global warming come from surface temperature measurement, taken primarily at weather stations, show a steady march toward warmer temperatures since 1980 or so. Despite the satellite record and other evidence that nothing of global warming are yet appearing CO 2 sin taxes seem a likely possibility in at least some European countries and perhaps in Canada. (author)

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