WorldWideScience

Sample records for global temperature

  1. Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

  2. Global predictability of temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  3. NOAA Global Surface Temperature (NOAAGlobalTemp)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) is a merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (formerly known as MLOST) (link is external). It is...

  4. Analysed foundation sea surface temperature, global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The through-cloud capabilities of microwave radiometers provide a valuable picture of global sea surface temperature (SST). To utilize this, scientists at Remote...

  5. Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32? degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

  6. Global temperature evolution 1979–2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, Grant; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    We analyze five prominent time series of global temperature (over land and ocean) for their common time interval since 1979: three surface temperature records (from NASA/GISS, NOAA/NCDC and HadCRU) and two lower-troposphere (LT) temperature records based on satellite microwave sensors (from RSS and UAH). All five series show consistent global warming trends ranging from 0.014 to 0.018 K yr −1 . When the data are adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term temperature variations (El Niño/southern oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability), the global warming signal becomes even more evident as noise is reduced. Lower-troposphere temperature responds more strongly to El Niño/southern oscillation and to volcanic forcing than surface temperature data. The adjusted data show warming at very similar rates to the unadjusted data, with smaller probable errors, and the warming rate is steady over the whole time interval. In all adjusted series, the two hottest years are 2009 and 2010.

  7. Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

    2007-05-22

    In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.

  8. Satellite Global and Hemispheric Lower Tropospheric Temperature Annual Temperature Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Brunke

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Previous analyses of the Earth’s annual cycle and its trends have utilized surface temperature data sets. Here we introduce a new analysis of the global and hemispheric annual cycle using a satellite remote sensing derived data set during the period 1979–2009, as determined from the lower tropospheric (LT channel of the MSU satellite. While the surface annual cycle is tied directly to the heating and cooling of the land areas, the tropospheric annual cycle involves additionally the gain or loss of heat between the surface and atmosphere. The peak in the global tropospheric temperature in the 30 year period occurs on 10 July and the minimum on 9 February in response to the larger land mass in the Northern Hemisphere. The actual dates of the hemispheric maxima and minima are a complex function of many variables which can change from year to year thereby altering these dates.Here we examine the time of occurrence of the global and hemispheric maxima and minima lower tropospheric temperatures, the values of the annual maxima and minima, and the slopes and significance of the changes in these metrics.  The statistically significant trends are all relatively small. The values of the global annual maximum and minimum showed a small, but significant trend. Northern and Southern Hemisphere maxima and minima show a slight trend toward occurring later in the year. Most recent analyses of trends in the global annual cycle using observed surface data have indicated a trend toward earlier maxima and minima.

  9. Global rainbow refractometry for droplet temperature measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascal Lemaitre; Emmanuel Porcheron; Amandine Nuboer; Philippe Brun; Pierre Cornet; Jeanne Malet; Jacques Vendel; Laurent Bouilloux; Gerard Grehan

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: In order to establish an accurate database to characterize the heat and mass transfers between a spray and the atmosphere with thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident in the containment enclosure of a pressurized water reactor (PWR), the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) has developed the TOSQAN experimental facility. This experiment is highly instrumented with non-intrusive diagnostics allowing to measure droplet size and velocity and gas concentrations [1]. The aim of this work is to present the Global Rainbow Thermometry (GRT), which is an advanced non-intrusive optical diagnostic, developed to measure the mean temperature of a set of falling droplets, in a measurement volume of 1 cm 3 . The final paper will be divided in three parts. In the first one, we will explain the principle of the rainbow formation and how droplet temperature can be deduced from the rainbow analysis [2]. This part will be illustrated with the theoretical background on the rainbow and numerical simulations of the global rainbow. The second part will be devoted to present the global rainbow experimental set-up we have developed on optical table, its experimental qualification and finally its implementation on the TOSQAN facility [3]. Finally, we will present the temperature measurements achieved in TOSQAN for thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident. These measurements are useful to characterize the heat and mass transfers between the spraying droplets and the air-steam mixture composing the atmosphere. This analysis will be exposed in a two companion papers. References: [1] E. Porcheron, P. Brun, P. Cornet, J. Malet, J. Vendel. Optical diagnostics applied for single and multi-phase flow characterization in the TOSQAN facility dedicated for thermal hydraulic containment studies. NURETH-10 Seoul, Korea, October 5-9, 2003. [2] P

  10. Global rainbow refractometry for droplet temperature measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascal Lemaitre; Emmanuel Porcheron; Amandine Nuboer; Philippe Brun; Pierre Cornet; Jeanne Malet; Jacques Vendel; Laurent Bouilloux [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire DSU/SERAC, BP 68, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Gerard Grehan [UMR 6614 CORIA, Laboratoire d' Electromagnetisme et Systemes Particulaires Site Universitaire du Madrillet, Avenue de l' universite BP 12, 76 801 Saint Etienne du Rouvray Cedex, (France)

    2005-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: In order to establish an accurate database to characterize the heat and mass transfers between a spray and the atmosphere with thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident in the containment enclosure of a pressurized water reactor (PWR), the French Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN) has developed the TOSQAN experimental facility. This experiment is highly instrumented with non-intrusive diagnostics allowing to measure droplet size and velocity and gas concentrations [1]. The aim of this work is to present the Global Rainbow Thermometry (GRT), which is an advanced non-intrusive optical diagnostic, developed to measure the mean temperature of a set of falling droplets, in a measurement volume of 1 cm{sup 3}. The final paper will be divided in three parts. In the first one, we will explain the principle of the rainbow formation and how droplet temperature can be deduced from the rainbow analysis [2]. This part will be illustrated with the theoretical background on the rainbow and numerical simulations of the global rainbow. The second part will be devoted to present the global rainbow experimental set-up we have developed on optical table, its experimental qualification and finally its implementation on the TOSQAN facility [3]. Finally, we will present the temperature measurements achieved in TOSQAN for thermal-hydraulic conditions representative of a hypothetical nuclear reactor accident. These measurements are useful to characterize the heat and mass transfers between the spraying droplets and the air-steam mixture composing the atmosphere. This analysis will be exposed in a two companion papers. References: [1] E. Porcheron, P. Brun, P. Cornet, J. Malet, J. Vendel. Optical diagnostics applied for single and multi-phase flow characterization in the TOSQAN facility dedicated for thermal hydraulic containment studies. NURETH-10 Seoul, Korea, October 5-9, 2003. [2] P

  11. Global warming: Temperature estimation in annealers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack Raymond

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sampling from a Boltzmann distribution is NP-hard and so requires heuristic approaches. Quantum annealing is one promising candidate. The failure of annealing dynamics to equilibrate on practical time scales is a well understood limitation, but does not always prevent a heuristically useful distribution from being generated. In this paper we evaluate several methods for determining a useful operational temperature range for annealers. We show that, even where distributions deviate from the Boltzmann distribution due to ergodicity breaking, these estimates can be useful. We introduce the concepts of local and global temperatures that are captured by different estimation methods. We argue that for practical application it often makes sense to analyze annealers that are subject to post-processing in order to isolate the macroscopic distribution deviations that are a practical barrier to their application.

  12. Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) Data, 1985-present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) develops and maintains a global ocean temperature and salinity resource with data that are both up-to-date...

  13. Global temperature stability by rule induction: An interdisciplinary bridge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunn, J.D.; Grzymala-Busse, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Rules incorporating influences on global temperature, an estimate of radiation balance, were induced from astronomical, geophysical, and anthropogenic variables. During periods of intermediate global temperatures (generally like the present century), the influences assume canceling roles; influences cancel the effects of extreme states potentially imposed by other influences because they are, in aggregate, most likely to be assuming opposite values. This imparts an overall stability to the global temperature. To achieve cold or hot global temperature, influences assume reinforcing roles. CO 2 is an active influence on global temperature. By virtue of its constancy in the atmosphere, it can be expected to sponsor frequent hot years in combination with the other influences as they cycle through their periods. If measures were implemented to maintain warm or cool global temperatures, it could retain the status quo of present global agricultural regions. They are probably more productive than hot world regions would be because of narrow storm tracks

  14. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  15. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 3 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Land Surface Temperature Databank contains monthly timescale mean, maximum, and minimum temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was...

  16. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 2 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  17. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  18. International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land Surface Temperature Databank - Stage 1 Daily

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global land surface temperature databank contains monthly timescale mean, max, and min temperature for approximately 40,000 stations globally. It was developed...

  19. The phase lag of temperature behind global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Hussainy, F.M.

    1995-08-01

    This paper presented the relationship between the air temperature and the global solar radiation, which can be conveniently represented by the three characteristics: mean, amplitude and phase lag of the first harmonic of global radiation and air temperatures. A good correlation between the air temperature and the global solar radiation has been found when the phase lag between them is nearly of 30 days. (author). 4 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab

  20. NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset, Version 4.0

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp) is derived from two independent analyses: the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST)...

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...

  2. Modelling global fresh surface water temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, L.P.H. van; Eikelboom, T.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Temperature directly determines a range of water physical properties including vapour pressure, surface tension, density and viscosity, and the solubility of oxygen and other gases. Indirectly water temperature acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing sediment

  3. Geomagnetic activity and the global temperature

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 4 (2009), s. 571-573 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : global warming * Southern Oscillation * geomagnetic storms Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2009

  4. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  5. Maximum weight of greenhouse effect to global temperature variation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Xian; Jiang, Chuangye

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The global average temperature has risen by 0.74 0 C since the late 19th century. Many studies have concluded that the observed warming in the last 50 years may be attributed to increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. But some scientists have a different point of view. Global climate change is affected not only by anthropogenic activities, but also constraints in climate system natural factors. How much is the influencing weight of C02's greenhouse effects to the global temperature variation? Does global climate continue warming or decreasing in the next 20 years? They are two hot spots in global climate change. The multi-timescales analysis method - Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to diagnose global annual mean air temperature dataset for land surface provided by IPCC and atmospheric content of C02 provided by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) during 1881-2002. The results show that: Global temperature variation contains quasi-periodic oscillations on four timescales (3 yr, 6 yr, 20 yr and 60 yr, respectively) and a century-scale warming trend. The variance contribution of IMF1-IMF4 and trend is 17.55%, 11.34%, 6.77%, 24.15% and 40.19%, respectively. The trend and quasi-60 yr oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent; C02's greenhouse effect on global temperature variation is mainly century-scale trend. The contribution of C02 concentration to global temperature variability is not more than 40.19%, whereas 59.81% contribution to global temperature variation is non-greenhouse effect. Therefore, it is necessary to re-study the dominant factors that induce the global climate change; It has been noticed that on the periods of 20 yr and 60 yr oscillation, the global temperature is beginning to decreased in the next 20 years. If the present C02 concentration is maintained, the greenhouse effect will be too small to countercheck the natural variation in global climate cooling in the next 20

  6. Global 1-km Sea Surface Temperature (G1SST)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — JPL OurOcean Portal: A daily, global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set is produced at 1-km (also known as ultra-high resolution) by the JPL ROMS (Regional Ocean...

  7. Recent Development on the NOAA's Global Surface Temperature Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H. M.; Huang, B.; Boyer, T.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Menne, M. J.; Rennie, J.

    2016-12-01

    Global Surface Temperature (GST) is one of the most widely used indicators for climate trend and extreme analyses. A widely used GST dataset is the NOAA merged land-ocean surface temperature dataset known as NOAAGlobalTemp (formerly MLOST). The NOAAGlobalTemp had recently been updated from version 3.5.4 to version 4. The update includes a significant improvement in the ocean surface component (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature or ERSST, from version 3b to version 4) which resulted in an increased temperature trends in recent decades. Since then, advancements in both the ocean component (ERSST) and land component (GHCN-Monthly) have been made, including the inclusion of Argo float SSTs and expanded EOT modes in ERSST, and the use of ISTI databank in GHCN-Monthly. In this presentation, we describe the impact of those improvements on the merged global temperature dataset, in terms of global trends and other aspects.

  8. On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series

    Science.gov (United States)

    KäRner, O.

    2002-10-01

    Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.

  9. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  10. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  11. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  12. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  13. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  14. High Predictive Skill of Global Surface Temperature a Year Ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folland, C. K.; Colman, A.; Kennedy, J. J.; Knight, J.; Parker, D. E.; Stott, P.; Smith, D. M.; Boucher, O.

    2011-12-01

    We discuss the high skill of real-time forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead issued by the UK Met Office, and their scientific background. Although this is a forecasting and not a formal attribution study, we show that the main instrumental global annual surface temperature data sets since 1891 are structured consistently with a set of five physical forcing factors except during and just after the second World War. Reconstructions use a multiple application of cross validated linear regression to minimise artificial skill allowing time-varying uncertainties in the contribution of each forcing factor to global temperature to be assessed. Mean cross validated reconstructions for the data sets have total correlations in the range 0.93-0.95,interannual correlations in the range 0.72-0.75 and root mean squared errors near 0.06oC, consistent with observational uncertainties.Three transient runs of the HadCM3 coupled model for 1888-2002 demonstrate quite similar reconstruction skill from similar forcing factors defined appropriately for the model, showing that skilful use of our technique is not confined to observations. The observed reconstructions show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) likely contributed to the re-commencement of global warming between 1976 and 2010 and to global cooling observed immediately beforehand in 1965-1976. The slowing of global warming in the last decade is likely to be largely due to a phase-delayed response to the downturn in the solar cycle since 2001-2, with no net ENSO contribution. The much reduced trend in 2001-10 is similar in size to other weak decadal temperature trends observed since global warming resumed in the 1970s. The causes of variations in decadal trends can be mostly explained by variations in the strength of the forcing factors. Eleven real-time forecasts of global mean surface temperature for the year ahead for 2000-2010, based on broadly similar methods, provide an independent test of the

  15. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-01-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

  16. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  17. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  18. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  19. Correlation Dimension Estimates of Global and Local Temperature Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang

    1995-11-01

    The author has attempted to detect the presence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in temperature data by estimating the correlation dimension with the Hill estimate that has been recently developed by Mikosch and Wang. There is no convincing evidence of low dimensionality with either global dataset (Southern Hemisphere monthly average temperatures from 1858 to 1984) or local temperature dataset (daily minimums at Auckland, New Zealand). Any apparent reduction in the dimension estimates appears to be due large1y, if not entirely, to effects of statistical bias, but neither is it a purely random stochastic process. The dimension of the climatic attractor may be significantly larger than 10.

  20. Evidence that global evapotranspiration makes a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature slowdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggett, L. Mark W.; Ball, David A.

    2018-02-01

    The difference between the time series trend for temperature expected from the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 and that for the (more slowly rising) observed temperature has been termed the global surface temperature slowdown. In this paper, we characterise the single time series made from the subtraction of these two time series as the `global surface temperature gap'. We also develop an analogous atmospheric CO2 gap series from the difference between the level of CO2 and first-difference CO2 (that is, the change in CO2 from one period to the next). This paper provides three further pieces of evidence concerning the global surface temperature slowdown. First, we find that the present size of both the global surface temperature gap and the CO2 gap is unprecedented over a period starting at least as far back as the 1860s. Second, ARDL and Granger causality analyses involving the global surface temperature gap against the major candidate physical drivers of the ocean heat sink and biosphere evapotranspiration are conducted. In each case where ocean heat data was available, it was significant in the models: however, evapotranspiration, or its argued surrogate precipitation, also remained significant in the models alongside ocean heat. In terms of relative scale, the standardised regression coefficient for evapotranspiration was repeatedly of the same order of magnitude as—typically as much as half that for—ocean heat. The foregoing is evidence that, alongside the ocean heat sink, evapotranspiration is also likely to be making a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature outcome. Third, there is evidence that both the ocean heat sink and the evapotranspiration process might be able to continue into the future to keep the temperature lower than the level-of-CO2 models would suggest. It is shown that this means there can be benefit in using the first-difference CO2 to temperature relationship shown in Leggett and Ball (Atmos Chem Phys 15

  1. Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khanh Dung T Nguyen

    Full Text Available Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.

  2. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

    2016-01-01

    We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

  3. Global versus local mechanisms of temperature sensing in ion channels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigoni, Cristina; Minor, Daniel L

    2018-05-01

    Ion channels turn diverse types of inputs, ranging from neurotransmitters to physical forces, into electrical signals. Channel responses to ligands generally rely on binding to discrete sensor domains that are coupled to the portion of the channel responsible for ion permeation. By contrast, sensing physical cues such as voltage, pressure, and temperature arises from more varied mechanisms. Voltage is commonly sensed by a local, domain-based strategy, whereas the predominant paradigm for pressure sensing employs a global response in channel structure to membrane tension changes. Temperature sensing has been the most challenging response to understand and whether discrete sensor domains exist for pressure and temperature has been the subject of much investigation and debate. Recent exciting advances have uncovered discrete sensor modules for pressure and temperature in force-sensitive and thermal-sensitive ion channels, respectively. In particular, characterization of bacterial voltage-gated sodium channel (BacNa V ) thermal responses has identified a coiled-coil thermosensor that controls channel function through a temperature-dependent unfolding event. This coiled-coil thermosensor blueprint recurs in other temperature sensitive ion channels and thermosensitive proteins. Together with the identification of ion channel pressure sensing domains, these examples demonstrate that "local" domain-based solutions for sensing force and temperature exist and highlight the diversity of both global and local strategies that channels use to sense physical inputs. The modular nature of these newly discovered physical signal sensors provides opportunities to engineer novel pressure-sensitive and thermosensitive proteins and raises new questions about how such modular sensors may have evolved and empowered ion channel pores with new sensibilities.

  4. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

  5. A stable boundary layer perspective on global temperature trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNider, R T; Christy, J R; Biazar, A

    2010-01-01

    temperatures in the stable boundary layer are not very robust measures of the heat content in the deep atmosphere and climate models do not predict minimum temperatures well, minimum temperatures should not be used as a surrogate for measures of deep atmosphere global warming.

  6. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

    2018-01-17

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  7. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

    2018-01-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  8. Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

    1997-01-01

    An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer. PMID:11607740

  9. Analysis of Global Urban Temperature Trends and Urbanization Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K. I.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S. W.

    2018-04-01

    Due to urbanization, urban areas are shrinking green spaces and increasing concrete, asphalt pavement. So urban climates are different from non-urban areas. In addition, long-term macroscopic studies of urban climate change are becoming more important as global urbanization affects global warming. To do this, it is necessary to analyze the effect of urbanization on the temporal change in urban temperature with the same temperature data and standards for urban areas around the world. In this study, time series analysis was performed with the maximum, minimum, mean and standard values of surface temperature during the from 1980 to 2010 and analyzed the effect of urbanization through linear regression analysis with variables (population, night light, NDVI, urban area). As a result, the minimum value of the surface temperature of the urban area reflects an increase by a rate of 0.28K decade-1 over the past 31 years, the maximum value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.372K decade-1, the mean value reflects an increase by a rate of 0.208 decade-1, and the standard deviation reflects a decrease by rate of 0.023K decade-1. And the change of surface temperature in urban areas is affected by urbanization related to land cover such as decrease of greenery and increase of pavement area, but socioeconomic variables are less influential than NDVI in this study. This study are expected to provide an approach to future research and policy-planning for urban temperature change and urbanization impacts.

  10. The Sun is the climate pacemaker II. Global ocean temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douglass, David H., E-mail: douglass@pas.rochester.edu; Knox, Robert S.

    2015-04-17

    In part I, equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature index SST3.4 was found to have segments during 1990–2014 showing a phase-locked annual signal and phase-locked signals of 2- or 3-year periods. Phase locking is to an inferred solar forcing of 1.0 cycle/yr. Here the study extends to the global ocean, from surface to 700 and 2000 m. The same phase-locking phenomena are found. The El Niño/La Niña effect diffuses into the world oceans with a delay of about two months. - Highlights: • Global ocean temperatures at depths 0–700 m and 0–2000 m from 1990 to 2014 are studied. • The same phase-locked phenomena reported in Paper I are observed. • El Niño/La Niña effects diffuse to the global oceans with a two month delay. • Ocean heat content trends during phase-locked time segments are consistent with zero.

  11. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  12. Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  13. Trends and associated uncertainty in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, A. N.; Moyer, E. J.; Stein, M.

    2016-12-01

    Physical models suggest that the Earth's mean temperature warms in response to changing CO2 concentrations (and hence increased radiative forcing); given physical uncertainties in this relationship, the historical temperature record is a source of empirical information about global warming. A persistent thread in many analyses of the historical temperature record, however, is the reliance on methods that appear to deemphasize both physical and statistical assumptions. Examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for natural variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. We show here that methods that deemphasize assumptions can limit the scope of analysis and can lead to misleading inferences, particularly in the setting considered where the data record is relatively short and the scale of temporal correlation is relatively long. A proposed model that is simple but physically informed provides a more reliable estimate of trends and allows a broader array of questions to be addressed. In accounting for uncertainty, we also illustrate how parametric statistical models that are attuned to the important characteristics of natural variability can be more reliable than ostensibly more flexible approaches.

  14. The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Collins, Bill; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Shine, Keith P

    2009-01-01

    Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO 2 -induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO 2 -induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

  15. Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen E.

    2018-04-01

    Unrealized increase in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) may result from the climate system not being in steady state with forcings and/or from cessation of negative aerosol forcing that would result from decreases in emissions. An observation-constrained method is applied to infer the dependence of Earth's climate sensitivity on forcing by anthropogenic aerosols within the uncertainty on that forcing given by the Fifth (2013) Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09-0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12-0.26 K over 100 years). However, the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large but is highly uncertain, 0.1-1.3 K over 20 years. Decrease in CO2 abundance and forcing following abrupt cessation of emissions would offset these increases in GMST over 100 years by as little as 0.09 K to as much as 0.8 K. The uncertainties quantified here greatly limit confidence in projections of change in GMST that would result from any strategy for future reduction of emissions.

  16. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  17. Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

    2009-01-01

    Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

  18. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  19. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  20. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  1. The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arkin, Phillip A; Janowiak, John; Smith, Thomas M; Sapiano, Mathew R P

    2010-01-01

    Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.

  2. Internally generated natural variability of global-mean temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigley, T.M.L.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1990-01-01

    Quantitative frequency-domain and time-domain estimates are made of an important aspect of natural variability of global-mean temperatures, namely, passive internal variability resulting from the modulation of atmospheric variability by the ocean. The results are derived using an upwelling-diffusion, energy-balance climate model. In the frequency domain, analytical spectral results show a transition from a high-frequency region in which the response is determined by the mixed-layer heat capacity and is independent of the climate sensitivity (time scales less than around 10 years), to a low-frequency region in which the response depends only on the climate sensitivity. In the former region the spectral power is proportional to f -2 , where f is the frequency, while in the latter the power is independent of frequency. The range of validity of these results depends on the components of the climate system that are included in the model. In this case these restrict the low-frequency results to time scales less than about 1,000 years. A qualitative extrapolation is presented in an attempt to explain the observed low-frequency power spectra from deep-sea-core δ 18 O time series. The spectral results are also used to estimate the effective heat capacity of the ocean as a function of frequency. At low frequencies, this can range up to 50 times greater than the heat capacity of the mixed layer. Results in the time domain are obtained by solving the model equations numerically

  3. GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_AMSR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...

  4. GHRSST Level 4 MW_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  5. Carbon inventories and atmospheric temperatures: A global and regional perspective

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    stream_size 3 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt stream_source_info Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...

  6. Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly Temperature, Version 4 (BETA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Only available as BETA release. The GHCN-Monthly Temperature Version 4 dataset consists of monthly mean temperature - both raw and bias corrected data. A full...

  7. Global Warming and Changing Temperature Patterns over Mauritius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discusses the changing temperature pattern over Mauritius. We observe an increase of the annual mean temperature at Pamplemousses since 1876 with an average rate of 0.009oC per year with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.67. Compared to the mean temperature for the period of 1951 to 1960, we ...

  8. Global attractors for the coupled suspension bridge system with temperature

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dell'Oro, Filippo; Giorgi, C.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 39, č. 4 (2016), s. 864-875 ISSN 0170-4214 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : absorbing set * coupled bridge system * global attractor Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.017, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/mma.3526/abstract

  9. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produ......-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.......The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce...... similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries...

  10. Symmetric scaling properties in global surface air temperature anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varotsos, Costas A.; Efstathiou, Maria N.

    2015-08-01

    We have recently suggested "long-term memory" or internal long-range correlation within the time-series of land-surface air temperature (LSAT) anomalies in both hemispheres. For example, an increasing trend in the LSAT anomalies is followed by another one at a different time in a power-law fashion. However, our previous research was mainly focused on the overall long-term persistence, while in the present study, the upward and downward scaling dynamics of the LSAT anomalies are analysed, separately. Our results show that no significant fluctuation differences were found between the increments and decrements in LSAT anomalies, over the whole Earth and over each hemisphere, individually. On the contrary, the combination of land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies seemed to cause a departure from symmetry and the increments in the land and sea surface temperature anomalies appear to be more persistent than the decrements.

  11. Global surface temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    is observed that the meridional gradient in surface air temperature anomalies between Europe and ... Surface air tempera- ture is one of the factors that influence monsoon variability. The distribution of surface air temper- ature over land and sea determines the locations ..... Asia, north Indian Ocean, northeast Russia and.

  12. Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mikšovský, Jiří; Holtanová, E.; Pišoft, P.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2016), s. 231-249 ISSN 2190-4979 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : atlantic multidecadal osciallation * pacific decadal oscillation * surface-temperature * 20th century reanalysis * southern-oscilation * internal variability * irradiance Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.635, year: 2016

  13. Population and trends in the global mean temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2017-01-01

    The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

  14. NODC Standard Product: Global ocean temperature and salinity profiles (2 disc set) (NODC Accession 0098058)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This set of CD-ROMs contains global ocean temperature and salinity profiles derived from NODC archive data files. It includes oceanographic station (bottle) data,...

  15. Spatio-temporal interpolation of daily temperatures for global land areas at 1 km resolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kilibarda, M.; Hengl, T.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Graler, B.; Pebesma, E.; Tadic, M.P.; Bajat, B.

    2014-01-01

    Combined Global Surface Summary of Day and European Climate Assessment and Dataset daily meteorological data sets (around 9000 stations) were used to build spatio-temporal geostatistical models and predict daily air temperature at ground resolution of 1km for the global land mass. Predictions in

  16. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Supit, Iwan; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects,

  17. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  18. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2018-01-01

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Global distribution of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Steinbrecht

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This study gives an overview of interannual variations of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature. It is based on newer and longer records from the 1979 to 2001 Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV instruments, and on US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalyses. Multiple linear least squares regression is used to attribute variations to various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Usually, maps of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature variations look very similar, reflecting a very close coupling between the two. As a rule of thumb, a 10 Dobson Unit (DU change in total ozone corresponds to a 1 K change of 50 hPa temperature. Large variations come from the linear trend term, up to -30 DU or -1.5 K/decade, from terms related to polar vortex strength, up to 50 DU or 5 K (typical, minimum to maximum, from tropospheric meteorology, up to 30 DU or 3 K, or from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K. The 11-year solar cycle, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K, or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, up to 10 DU or 1 K, are contributing smaller variations. Stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to warming up to 3 K at low latitudes and to ozone depletion up to 40 DU at high latitudes. Variations attributed to QBO, polar vortex strength, and to a lesser degree to ENSO, exhibit an inverse correlation between low latitudes and higher latitudes. Variations related to the solar cycle or 400 hPa temperature, however, have the same sign over most of the globe. Variations are usually zonally symmetric at low and mid-latitudes, but asymmetric at high latitudes. There, position and strength of the stratospheric anti-cyclones over the Aleutians and south of Australia appear to vary with the phases of solar cycle, QBO or ENSO.

  20. Evaluation of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) air temperature data products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Lei; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.

    2015-01-01

    There is a high demand for agrohydrologic models to use gridded near-surface air temperature data as the model input for estimating regional and global water budgets and cycles. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) developed by combining simulation models with observations provides a long-term gridded meteorological dataset at the global scale. However, the GLDAS air temperature products have not been comprehensively evaluated, although the accuracy of the products was assessed in limited areas. In this study, the daily 0.25° resolution GLDAS air temperature data are compared with two reference datasets: 1) 1-km-resolution gridded Daymet data (2002 and 2010) for the conterminous United States and 2) global meteorological observations (2000–11) archived from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The comparison of the GLDAS datasets with the GHCN datasets, including 13 511 weather stations, indicates a fairly high accuracy of the GLDAS data for daily temperature. The quality of the GLDAS air temperature data, however, is not always consistent in different regions of the world; for example, some areas in Africa and South America show relatively low accuracy. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal a high agreement between GLDAS and Daymet daily air temperature datasets, although spatial details in high mountainous areas are not sufficiently estimated by the GLDAS data. The evaluation of the GLDAS data demonstrates that the air temperature estimates are generally accurate, but caution should be taken when the data are used in mountainous areas or places with sparse weather stations.

  1. The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

    2017-05-01

    Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty

  2. Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogan, Katharine; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Phillips, Richard A.; Walling, Craig A.; Agnew, Philippa; Ainley, David G.; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Ballard, Grant; Barrett, Robert T.; Barton, Kerry J.; Bech, Claus; Becker, Peter; Berglund, Per-Arvid; Bollache, Loïc; Bond, Alexander L.; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Bradley, Russell W.; Burr, Zofia M.; Camphuysen, Kees; Catry, Paulo; Chiaradia, Andre; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Cuthbert, Richard; Dehnhard, Nina; Descamps, Sébastien; Diamond, Tony; Divoky, George; Drummond, Hugh; Dugger, Katie M.; Dunn, Michael J.; Emmerson, Louise; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Fort, Jérôme; Fraser, William; Genovart, Meritxell; Gilg, Olivier; González-Solís, Jacob; Granadeiro, José Pedro; Grémillet, David; Hansen, Jannik; Hanssen, Sveinn A.; Harris, Mike; Hedd, April; Hinke, Jefferson; Igual, José Manuel; Jahncke, Jaime; Jones, Ian; Kappes, Peter J.; Lang, Johannes; Langset, Magdalene; Lescroël, Amélie; Lorentsen, Svein-Hâkon; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Mallory, Mark; Moe, Børge; Montevecchi, William A.; Monticelli, David; Mostello, Carolyn; Newell, Mark; Nicholson, Lisa; Nisbet, Ian; Olsson, Olof; Oro, Daniel; Pattison, Vivian; Poisbleau, Maud; Pyk, Tanya; Quintana, Flavio; Ramos, Jaime A.; Ramos, Raül; Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin; Rodríguez, Cristina; Ryan, Peter; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Schmidt, Niels M.; Shannon, Paula; Sittler, Benoit; Southwell, Colin; Surman, Christopher; Svagelj, Walter S.; Trivelpiece, Wayne; Warzybok, Pete; Watanuki, Yutaka; Weimerskirch, Henri; Wilson, Peter R.; Wood, Andrew G.; Phillimore, Albert B.; Lewis, Sue

    2018-04-01

    Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity1, and is often sensitive to climatic conditions2. Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey3. This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers4. However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction5. Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr-1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days °C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources2.

  3. Online Global Land Surface Temperature Estimation from Landsat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Parastatidis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the estimation of land surface temperature (LST for the globe from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 thermal infrared sensors, using different surface emissivity sources. A single channel algorithm is used for consistency among the estimated LST products, whereas the option of using emissivity from different sources provides flexibility for the algorithm’s implementation to any area of interest. The Google Earth Engine (GEE, an advanced earth science data and analysis platform, allows the estimation of LST products for the globe, covering the time period from 1984 to present. To evaluate the method, the estimated LST products were compared against two reference datasets: (a LST products derived from ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer, as higher-level products based on the temperature-emissivity separation approach; (b Landsat LST data that have been independently produced, using different approaches. An overall RMSE (root mean square error of 1.52 °C was observed and it was confirmed that the accuracy of the LST product is dependent on the emissivity; different emissivity sources provided different LST accuracies, depending on the surface cover. The LST products, for the full Landsat 5, 7 and 8 archives, are estimated “on-the-fly” and are available on-line via a web application.

  4. Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, van Geert Jan

    2018-01-01

    The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role

  5. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris" : An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2018-01-01

    In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to "hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these

  6. Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Franssen, S. U.; Bergmann, N.; Gu, J.; Coyer, J. A.; Reusch, T. B. H.; Bornberg-Bauer, E.; Olsen, J. L.

    2016-01-01

    Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina,

  7. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  8. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

    2016-12-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  9. ATSR sea surface temperature data in a global analysis with TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Thomas

    1996-01-01

    Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) data from the ERS 1 satellite mission are used in a global analysis of the surface temperature of the oceans. The data are the low resolution 0.5 degrees by 0.5 degrees average temperatures and cover about 24 months. At global scales a significant seasonal...... variability is found. On each of the hemispheres the surface temperatures reach their maximum after summer heating. The seasonal sea level variability, as observed from TOPEX/POSEIDON, reaches its maximum 1.1-1.4 months later....

  10. The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisch, Harry; Andrews, Howard F; Fisch, Karen S; Golden, Robert; Liberson, Gary; Olsson, Carl A

    2003-07-01

    According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth's surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994.A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (phuman fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures.

  11. Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

    2012-01-01

    This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

  12. Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

    2017-12-01

    Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

  13. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  14. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  15. A simple model for variations in global mean temperature: implications for decadal variability, the global warming hiatus, and recent temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, S.; Fedorov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Global mean surface temperature (GMST) has steadily risen since the mid-19th century, and at the same time experienced significant variations on interannual and decadal timescales. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain such variations, ranging from the Pacific decadal oscillation to volcanic eruptions. In this study, we construct a simple, physically-based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols. The model closely reproduces the history of GMST changes since 1880 with the mean squared error about 0.05°C for the past 60 years, smaller than the typical error of GMST observations (see the figure attached). It also accurately captures decadal GMST variations, including the global warming hiatus in the early 21stcentury. This model can be used to understand the causes of the observed GMST variations and requires little computational resource. Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity was the major cause of the recent global warming hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise since 2014 is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Niño conditions in addition to the continuing background global warming trend. The model can be also used to make predictions for next-year GMST in the short term, and future climate projections in the long term. We will also discuss the implications of this simple model for paleoclimate reconstructions and GCM performance evaluations.

  16. The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we have developed an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. This includes developing new "Big Data" analysis methods as the data volumes involved are considerable. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

  17. Global Distributions of Temperature Variances At Different Stratospheric Altitudes From Gps/met Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, N. M.; Karpova, N. V.; Jacobi, Ch.

    The GPS/MET measurements at altitudes 5 - 35 km are used to obtain global distribu- tions of small-scale temperature variances at different stratospheric altitudes. Individ- ual temperature profiles are smoothed using second order polynomial approximations in 5 - 7 km thick layers centered at 10, 20 and 30 km. Temperature inclinations from the averaged values and their variances obtained for each profile are averaged for each month of year during the GPS/MET experiment. Global distributions of temperature variances have inhomogeneous structure. Locations and latitude distributions of the maxima and minima of the variances depend on altitudes and season. One of the rea- sons for the small-scale temperature perturbations in the stratosphere could be internal gravity waves (IGWs). Some assumptions are made about peculiarities of IGW gener- ation and propagation in the tropo-stratosphere based on the results of GPS/MET data analysis.

  18. Evidence on a link between the intensity of Schumann resonance and global surface temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sekiguchi

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available A correlation is investigated between the intensity of the global electromagnetic oscillations (Schumann resonance with the planetary surface temperature. The electromagnetic signal was monitored at Moshiri (Japan, and temperature data were taken from surface meteorological observations. The series covers the period from November 1998 to May 2002. The Schumann resonance intensity is found to vary coherently with the global ground temperature in the latitude interval from 45° S to 45° N: the relevant cross-correlation coefficient reaches the value of 0.9. It slightly increases when the high-latitude temperature is incorporated. Correspondence among the data decreases when we reduce the latitude interval, which indicates the important role of the middle-latitude lightning in the Schumann resonance oscillations. We apply the principal component (or singular spectral analysis to the electromagnetic and temperature records to extract annual, semiannual, and interannual variations. The principal component analysis (PCA clarifies the links between electromagnetic records and meteorological data.

  19. Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romilly, Peter

    2005-07-01

    Climate change has important implications for business and economic activity. Effective management of climate change impacts will depend on the availability of accurate and cost-effective forecasts. This paper uses univariate time series techniques to model the properties of a global mean temperature dataset in order to develop a parsimonious forecasting model for managerial decision-making over the short-term horizon. Although the model is estimated on global temperature data, the methodology could also be applied to temperature data at more localised levels. The statistical techniques include seasonal and non-seasonal unit root testing with and without structural breaks, as well as ARIMA and GARCH modelling. A forecasting evaluation shows that the chosen model performs well against rival models. The estimation results confirm the findings of a number of previous studies, namely that global mean temperatures increased significantly throughout the 20th century. The use of GARCH modelling also shows the presence of volatility clustering in the temperature data, and a positive association between volatility and global mean temperature.

  20. Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishtiaq Hassan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.

  1. GLOBAL CHANGES IN THE SEA ICE COVER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Comiso

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The trends in the sea ice cover in the two hemispheres have been observed to be asymmetric with the rate of change in the Arctic being negative at −3.8 % per decade while that of the Antarctic is positive at 1.7 % per decade. These observations are confirmed in this study through analyses of a more robust data set that has been enhanced for better consistency and updated for improved statistics. With reports of anthropogenic global warming such phenomenon appears physically counter intuitive but trend studies of surface temperature over the same time period show the occurrence of a similar asymmetry. Satellite surface temperature data show that while global warming is strong and dominant in the Arctic, it is relatively minor in the Antarctic with the trends in sea ice covered areas and surrounding ice free regions observed to be even negative. A strong correlation of ice extent with surface temperature is observed, especially during the growth season, and the observed trends in the sea ice cover are coherent with the trends in surface temperature. The trend of global averages of the ice cover is negative but modest and is consistent and compatible with the positive but modest trend in global surface temperature. A continuation of the trend would mean the disappearance of summer ice by the end of the century but modelling projections indicate that the summer ice could be salvaged if anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are kept constant at the current level.

  2. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Millar, Richard J.

    2018-05-01

    The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).

  3. Synoptic monthly gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP) water temperature and salinity from January 1990 to December 2009 (NCEI Accession 0138647)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The synoptic gridded Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (SG-GTSPP) provides world ocean 3D gridded temperature and salinity data in monthly increment...

  4. Quality-controlled sea surface temperature, salinity and other measurements from the NCEI Global Thermosalinographs Database (NCEI-TSG)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains global in-situ sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SSS) and other measurements from the NOAA NCEI Global Thermosalinographs Database...

  5. Changes in geomagnetic activity and global temperature during the past 40 years

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 4 (2012), s. 1095-1107 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : geomagnetic activity * polar vortex * climate indices * global temperature Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 0.975, year: 2012

  6. Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent global temperature variability: an information theoretic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, Ankush; Ramesh, Durbha Sai; Vichare, Geeta; Koganti, Triven; Gurubaran, S.

    2017-12-01

    Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent global temperature variability remains a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4 and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance ( TSI) and cosmic ray flux ( CR); El Niño Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly ( GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding signals of global temperature variability. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO2 ({˜ } 24 %), CH4 ({˜ } 19 %) and volcanic aerosols ({˜ }23 %) are the primary contributors to the observed variations in GMTA. While, UV ({˜ } 9 %) and ENSO ({˜ } 12 %) act as secondary drivers of variations in the GMTA, the remaining play a marginal role in the observed recent global temperature variability. Interestingly, ENSO and GMTA mutually drive each other at varied time lags. This study assists future modelling efforts in climate science.

  7. Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

    2018-01-01

    Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

  8. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  9. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  10. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

  11. Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

    2018-03-13

    Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

  12. The global historical climatology network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, and pressure data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vose, R.S.; Schmoyer, R.L.; Peterson, T.C.; Steurer, P.M.; Heim, R.R. Jr.; Karl, T.R.; Eischeid, J.K.

    1992-01-01

    Interest in global climate change has risen dramatically during the past several decades. In a similar fashion, the number of data sets available to study global change has also increased. Unfortunately, many different organizations and researchers have compiled these data sets, making it confusing and time consuming for individuals to acquire the most comprehensive data. In response to this rapid growth in the number of global data sets, DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) established the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) project. The purpose of this project is to compile an improved data set of long-term monthly mean temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure for as dense a network of global stations as possible. Specifically, the GHCN project seeks to consolidate the numerous preexisting national-, regional-, and global-scale data sets into a single global data base; to subject the data to rigorous quality control; and to update, enhance, and distribute the data set at regular intervals. The purpose of this paper is to describe the compilation and contents of the GHCN data base (i.e., GHCN Version 1.0)

  13. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MYD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  14. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MOD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  15. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Night (MYD21A1N.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  16. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity Daily L3 Global 1km SIN Grid Day (MOD21A1D.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and...

  17. GHRSST Level 4 MW_IR_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.81 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  18. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  19. Satellite-based detection of global urban heat-island temperature influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, K.P.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Owen, T.W.; Elvidge, C.D.

    2002-01-01

    This study utilizes a satellite-based methodology to assess the urban heat-island influence during warm season months for over 4400 stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network of climate stations. The methodology includes local and regional satellite retrievals of an indicator of the presence green photosynthetically active vegetation at and around the stations. The difference in local and regional samples of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to estimate differences in mean air temperature. Stations classified as urban averaged 0.90??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.92??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment on the basis of the NDVI-derived temperature estimates. Additionally, stations classified as rural averaged 0.19??C (N. Hemisphere) and 0.16??C (S. Hemisphere) warmer than the surrounding environment. The NDVI-derived temperature estimates were found to be in reasonable agreement with temperature differences observed between climate stations. The results suggest that satellite-derived data sets can be used to estimate the urban heat-island temperature influence on a global basis and that a more detailed analysis of rural stations and their surrounding environment may be necessary to assure that temperature trends derived from assumed rural environments are not influenced by changes in land use/land cover. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

    2017-12-01

    Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.

  1. Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

    2009-12-01

    Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

  2. Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

    2017-05-01

    Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Hiatus in global warming - example of water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge (Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ducić Vladan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The research included trends in water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge and surface air temperature at the nearby meteorological station Sombor, as well as an analysis of the results obtained in relation to the claims of the existence of the hiatus in global air temperature increase in the period 1998-2012. In the period 1961-2013, there was a statistically significant increase in the mean annual water temperature (0.039°C/year, as well as all the average monthly values. However, with annual values for the period 1998-2013, there was a decrease. The longest periods of negative trend (27 years were recorded for January and February. A high correlation was found between the surface air temperature and water temperature for all monthly and seasonal values. In the mean annual air temperature the presence of the hiatus is not observed, but a negative trend is recorded in March (32 years, December (43 years and February (49 years. The highest correlations between water temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO were obtained for the NAO in January (0.60, the AMO in autumn (0.52 and the NAO in winter (0.51. For surface air temperature, the highest correlations were registered for the AMO in summer (0.49 and the NAO in winter (0.42. The results indicate the dominant role of natural factors in the decrease of winter air temperature and water temperature of the Danube. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007

  4. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

    2014-05-01

    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  5. Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2018-03-01

    Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

  6. Global weak solutions for coupled transport processes in concrete walls at high temperatures

    OpenAIRE

    Beneš, Michal; Štefan, Radek

    2012-01-01

    We consider an initial-boundary value problem for a fully nonlinear coupled parabolic system with nonlinear boundary conditions modelling hygro-thermal behavior of concrete at high temperatures. We prove a global existence of a weak solution to this system on an arbitrary time interval. The main result is proved by an approximation procedure. This consists in proving the existence of solutions to mollified problems using the Leray-Schauder theorem, for which a priori estimates are obtained. T...

  7. Can climate models be tuned to simulate the global mean absolute temperature correctly?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Q.; Shi, Y.; Gong, W.

    2016-12-01

    The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already issued five assessment reports (ARs), which include the simulation of the past climate and the projection of the future climate under various scenarios. The participating models can simulate reasonably well the trend in global mean temperature change, especially of the last 150 years. However, there is a large, constant discrepancy in terms of global mean absolute temperature simulations over this period. This discrepancy remained in the same range between IPCC-AR4 and IPCC-AR5, which amounts to about 3oC between the coldest model and the warmest model. This discrepancy has great implications to the land processes, particularly the processes related to the cryosphere, and casts doubts over if land-atmosphere-ocean interactions are correctly considered in those models. This presentation aims to explore if this discrepancy can be reduced through model tuning. We present an automatic model calibration strategy to tune the parameters of a climate model so the simulated global mean absolute temperature would match the observed data over the last 150 years. An intermediate complexity model known as LOVECLIM is used in the study. This presentation will show the preliminary results.

  8. Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

    2010-05-04

    The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

  9. Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

    2018-04-01

    The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

  10. Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gourdji, Sharon M; Sibley, Adam M; Lobell, David B

    2013-01-01

    Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a

  11. Continental distribution as a forcing factor for global-scale temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, E J; Thompson, S L; Hay, W W

    1984-08-16

    Since the advent of the continental drift hypothesis, changing continental geometries have been proposed as an explanation for long-term temperature variability. The climatic influence of a few specific past geographies has been investigated quantitatively, but these studies do not indicate the potential temperature variability due to continental positions. This problem has been examined only with simple climate models having limiting assumptions such as no cloud cover. Here idealized continental geometries are used as boundary conditions in a simulation using a general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere. The range in model simulated globally-averaged surface temperature is 7.4 K with a difference in polar surface temperature of up to 34 K. The simulations suggest a substantial climatic sensitivity to continental positions with the coldest global climate when land masses are in high latitudes. Although the simulations have not captured theoretical limits of climatic variability due to continental positions, present-day geography is near the cold end of this spectrum. 20 references, 1 figure.

  12. An updated global grid point surface air temperature anomaly data set: 1851--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Boden, T.A.; Daniels, R.C.

    1991-10-01

    This document presents land-based monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1951--1970 reference period mean) on a 5{degree} latitude by 10{degree} longitude global grid. Monthly surface air temperature anomalies (departures from a 1957--1975 reference period mean) for the Antarctic (grid points from 65{degree}S to 85{degree}S) are presented in a similar way as a separate data set. The data were derived primarily from the World Weather Records and the archives of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. This long-term record of temperature anomalies may be used in studies addressing possible greenhouse-gas-induced climate changes. To date, the data have been employed in generating regional, hemispheric, and global time series for determining whether recent (i.e., post-1900) warming trends have taken place. This document also presents the monthly mean temperature records for the individual stations that were used to generate the set of gridded anomalies. The periods of record vary by station. Northern Hemisphere station data have been corrected for inhomogeneities, while Southern Hemisphere data are presented in uncorrected form. 14 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.

  13. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation using soft computing methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Danesh, Amir Seyed; Abdullah, Mohd Shahidan; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-07-01

    Precise knowledge of solar radiation is indeed essential in different technological and scientific applications of solar energy. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation would be appealing owing to broad availability of measured air temperatures. In this study, the potentials of soft computing techniques are evaluated to estimate daily horizontal global solar radiation (DHGSR) from measured maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures ( T max, T min, and T avg) in an Iranian city. For this purpose, a comparative evaluation between three methodologies of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function support vector regression (SVR-rbf), and polynomial basis function support vector regression (SVR-poly) is performed. Five combinations of T max, T min, and T avg are served as inputs to develop ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models. The attained results show that all ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models provide favorable accuracy. Based upon all techniques, the higher accuracies are achieved by models (5) using T max- T min and T max as inputs. According to the statistical results, SVR-rbf outperforms SVR-poly and ANFIS. For SVR-rbf (5), the mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient are 1.1931 MJ/m2, 2.0716 MJ/m2, and 0.9380, respectively. The survey results approve that SVR-rbf can be used efficiently to estimate DHGSR from air temperatures.

  14. A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, Julian; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, T.; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Bjorklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, M.; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Koc, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, K.M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, X.; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Thapa, Udya Kuwar; Thomas, E.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, A.E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene; White, James W. C.; Yu, Z.; Zinke, Jens

    2017-01-01

    Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

  15. Global scaling analysis for the pebble bed advanced high temperature reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blandford, E.D.; Peterson, P.F.

    2009-01-01

    Scaled Integral Effects Test (IET) facilities play a critical role in the design certification process of innovative reactor designs. Best-estimate system analysis codes, which minimize deliberate conservatism, require confirmatory data during the validation process to ensure an acceptable level of accuracy as defined by the regulator. The modular Pebble Bed Advanced High Temperature Reactor (PB-AHTR), with a nominal power output of 900 MWth, is the most recent UC Berkeley design for a liquid fluoride salt cooled, solid fuel reactor. The PB-AHTR takes advantage of technologies developed for gas-cooled high temperature thermal and fast reactors, sodium fast reactors, and molten salt reactors. In this paper, non-dimensional scaling groups and similarity criteria are presented at the global system level for a loss of forced circulation transient, where single-phase natural circulation is the primary mechanism for decay heat removal following a primary pump trip. Due to very large margin to fuel damage temperatures, the peak metal temperature of primary-loop components was identified as the key safety parameter of interest. Fractional Scaling Analysis (FSA) methods were used to quantify the intensity of each transfer process during the transient and subsequently rank them by their relative importance while identifying key sources of distortion between the prototype and model. The results show that the development of a scaling hierarchy at the global system level informs the bottom-up scaling analysis. (author)

  16. Exploring the possibilities of the advection of temperature to diagnose the influence of changes in the atmospheric circulation on global temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidal, O.; Gimeno, L.; Ribera, P. [Vigo Univ., Orense (Spain). Dept. of Applied Physics; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Gallego, D. [Complutense Univ., Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Atmospheric Physics

    2001-07-01

    The advection of temperature (AT) at three different pressure levels was calculated for the period of 1958 to 1998 to test the hypothesis that the origin global temperature increase during the past decade was caused by changes in global circulation. The relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature has been widely studied. They have a common oscillation in the bands of 2 and 4 years. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may also account for regional surface warming over Europe and Asia and for cooling over the northwestern Atlantic. Important correlations were found between most of the Northern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Arctic Oscillation and between most of the Southern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Antarctic Oscillation. Poor correlations were found with El Nino-Southern Oscillation even for belts between 0 and 30 degrees and for the lower troposphere. 8 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

  17. On the influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varonov, Albert; Shopov, Yavor

    2014-01-01

    Using statistical analysis, correlation between the variations of the total solar irradiance and of the annual-mean land temperatures was found. An unknown time lag between both data sets was expected to be present due to the complexity of the Earth’s climate system leading to a delayed response to changes in influencing factors. We found the best correlation with coefficient over 90% for a 14-year shift of the annual mean land temperature record ahead with data until 1970, while the same comparison with data until 2006 yields 61% correlation. These results show substantially higher influence of total solar irradiance on global land temperatures until 1970. The decline of this influence during the last 40 years could be attributed to the increasing concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Key words: total solar irradiance, solar variations, solar forcing, climate change

  18. The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Jackson Davis

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica—the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO—that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4% in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP, and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely. Identified ACOs summate with millennial periodicity to form the Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIMs known to precede Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores. Homologous ACOs recorded at the four EAP drill sites during the last glacial maximum appeared first at lower elevations nearest the ocean and centuries later on the high EAP, with latencies that exceed dating uncertainty >30-fold. ACO homologs at different drill sites became synchronous, however, during the warmer Holocene. Comparative spectral analysis suggests that the millennial-scale AIM cycle declined in period from 1500 to 800 years over the last 70 millennia. Similarly, over the last 226 millennia ACO repetition period (mean 352 years declined by half while amplitude (mean 0.67 °C approximately doubled. The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature

  19. Global Land Surface Temperature From the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, D. J.; Corlett, G. K.; Göttsche, F.-M.; Remedios, J. J.

    2017-11-01

    The Leicester Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) Processor for LAnd Surface Temperature (LASPLAST) provides global land surface temperature (LST) products from thermal infrared radiance data. In this paper, the state-of-the-art version of LASPLAST, as deployed in the GlobTemperature project, is described and applied to data from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR). The LASPLAST retrieval formulation for LST is a nadir-only, two-channel, split-window algorithm, based on biome classification, fractional vegetation, and across-track water vapor dependences. It incorporates globally robust retrieval coefficients derived using highly sampled atmosphere profiles. LASPLAST benefits from appropriate spatial resolution auxiliary information and a new probabilistic-based cloud flagging algorithm. For the first time for a satellite-derived LST product, pixel-level uncertainties characterized in terms of random, locally correlated, and systematic components are provided. The new GlobTemperature GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product has been validated for 1 year of AATSR data (2009) against in situ measurements acquired from "gold standard reference" stations: Gobabeb, Namibia, and Evora, Portugal; seven Surface Radiation Budget stations, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement station at Southern Great Plains. These data show average absolute biases for the GT_ATS_2P Version 1.0 product of 1.00 K in the daytime and 1.08 K in the nighttime. The improvements in data provenance including better accuracy, fully traceable retrieval coefficients, quantified uncertainty, and more detailed information in the new harmonized format of the GT_ATS_2P product will allow for more significant exploitation of the historical LST data record from the ATSRs and a valuable near-real-time service from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometers (SLSTRs).

  20. Temperature differences within the detector of the Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, compared to global radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjeldstad, Berit; Grandum, Oddbjorn

    1993-11-01

    The Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, has no temperature compensation, and the effect of temperature on the instrument response has been investigated and discussed in several reports. It is recommended to control the temperature of the detector or at least measure it. The temperature sensor is recommended to be positioned within the detector unit. We have measured the temperature at three different positions in the detector: At the edge of the green filter where the phosphor layer is placed; at the glass tube covering the cathode; and, finally, the air temperature inside the instrument. These measurements have been performed outdoors since July 1991, with corresponding measurements of the global and direct solar radiation. There was no difference between the temperature of the glasstube covering the cathode and the air inside the instrument, at any radiation level. However, there was a difference between the green filter and the two others. The difference is linearly dependent on the amount of global radiation. The temperature difference, (Delta) T (temperature between the green filter and the air inside the sensor), increased 0.8 degree(s)C when the global irradiation increased by 100 W/m2. At maximum global radiation in Trondheim (latitude 63.4 degree(s)N) (Delta) T was approximately 5 - 6 K when the global radiation was about 700 W/m2. This was valid for temperatures between 7 degree(s)C and 30 degree(s)C. Only clear days were evaluated.

  1. Global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature for informing salmonid disease management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaheri, Amir; Babbar-Sebens, Meghna; Alexander, Julie; Bartholomew, Jerri; Hallett, Sascha

    2018-06-01

    Many rivers in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are anthropogenically manipulated via dam operations, leading to system-wide impacts on hydrodynamic conditions and aquatic communities. Understanding how dam operations alter abiotic and biotic variables is important for designing management actions. For example, in the Klamath River, dam outflows could be manipulated to alter water age and temperature to reduce risk of parasite infections in salmon by diluting or altering viability of parasite spores. However, sensitivity of water age and temperature to the riverine conditions such as bathymetry can affect outcomes from dam operations. To examine this issue in detail, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature to a comprehensive set of hydraulics and meteorological parameters in the Klamath River, California, where management of salmonid disease is a high priority. We applied an analysis technique, which combined Latin-hypercube and one-at-a-time sampling methods, and included simulation runs with the hydrodynamic numerical model of the Lower Klamath. We found that flow rate and bottom roughness were the two most important parameters that influence water age. Water temperature was more sensitive to inflow temperature, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, flow rate, and wet bulb temperature respectively. Our results are relevant for managers because they provide a framework for predicting how water within 'high infection risk' sections of the river will respond to dam water (low infection risk) input. Moreover, these data will be useful for prioritizing the use of water age (dilution) versus temperature (spore viability) under certain contexts when considering flow manipulation as a method to reduce risk of infection and disease in Klamath River salmon.

  2. Van ‘t Hoff global analyses of variable temperature isothermal titration calorimetry data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freiburger, Lee A.; Auclair, Karine; Mittermaier, Anthony K.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ▶ We developed a global fitting strategy for ITC data collected at multiple temperatures. ▶ This method does not require prior knowledge of the binding mechanism. ▶ Monte Carlo simulations show that the approach improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters. ▶ The method is used to study coupled folding/binding in aminoglycoside 6′-N-acetyltransferase-Ii. - Abstract: Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) can provide detailed information on the thermodynamics of biomolecular interactions in the form of equilibrium constants, K A , and enthalpy changes, ΔH A . A powerful application of this technique involves analyzing the temperature dependences of ITC-derived K A and ΔH A values to gain insight into thermodynamic linkage between binding and additional equilibria, such as protein folding. We recently developed a general method for global analysis of variable temperature ITC data that significantly improves the accuracy of extracted thermodynamic parameters and requires no prior knowledge of the coupled equilibria. Here we report detailed validation of this method using Monte Carlo simulations and an application to study coupled folding and binding in an aminoglycoside acetyltransferase enzyme.

  3. Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

    2018-03-01

    A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

  4. Genetic Diversity of Globally Dispersed Lacustrine Group I Haptophytes: Implications for Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, N.; Longo, W. M.; Amaral-Zettler, L. A.; Huang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    There are significant uncertainties surrounding the forcings that drive terrestrial temperature changes on local and regional scales. Quantitative temperature reconstructions from terrestrial sites, such as lakes, help to unravel the fundamental processes that drive changes in temperature on different temporal and spatial scales. Recent studies at Brown University show that distinct alkenones, long chain ketones produced by haptophytes, are found in many freshwater, alkaline lakes in the Northern Hemisphere, highlighting these systems as targets for quantitative continental temperature reconstructions. These freshwater alkenones are produced by the Group I haptophyte phylotype and are characterized by a distinct signature: the presence of isomeric tri-unsaturated ketones and absence of alkenoates. There are currently no cultured representatives of the "Group I" haptophytes, hence they are only known based on their rRNA gene signatures. Here we present robust evidence that Northern Hemispheric freshwater, alkaline lakes with the characteristic "Group I" alkenone signature all host the same clade of Isochrysidales haptophytes. We employed next generation DNA amplicon sequencing to target haptophyte specific hypervariable regions of the large and small-subunit ribosomal RNA gene from 13 different lakes from three continents (i.e., North America, Europe, and Asia). Combined with previously published sequences, our genetic data show that the Group I haptophyte is genetically diverse on a regional and global scale, and even within the same lake. We present two case studies from a suite of five lakes in Alaska and three in Iceland to assess the impact of various environmental factors affecting Group I diversity and alkenone production. Despite the genetic diversity in this group, the overall ketone signature is conserved. Based on global surface sediment samples and in situ Alaskan lake calibrations, alkenones produced by different operational taxonomic units of the Group

  5. A global review of freshwater crayfish temperature tolerance, preference, and optimal growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhoff, Jacob T.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation efforts, environmental planning, and management must account for ongoing ecosystem alteration due to a changing climate, introduced species, and shifting land use. This type of management can be facilitated by an understanding of the thermal ecology of aquatic organisms. However, information on thermal ecology for entire taxonomic groups is rarely compiled or summarized, and reviews of the science can facilitate its advancement. Crayfish are one of the most globally threatened taxa, and ongoing declines and extirpation could have serious consequences on aquatic ecosystem function due to their significant biomass and ecosystem roles. Our goal was to review the literature on thermal ecology for freshwater crayfish worldwide, with emphasis on studies that estimated temperature tolerance, temperature preference, or optimal growth. We also explored relationships between temperature metrics and species distributions. We located 56 studies containing information for at least one of those three metrics, which covered approximately 6 % of extant crayfish species worldwide. Information on one or more metrics existed for all 3 genera of Astacidae, 4 of the 12 genera of Cambaridae, and 3 of the 15 genera of Parastacidae. Investigations employed numerous methodological approaches for estimating these parameters, which restricts comparisons among and within species. The only statistically significant relationship we observed between a temperature metric and species range was a negative linear relationship between absolute latitude and optimal growth temperature. We recommend expansion of studies examining the thermal ecology of freshwater crayfish and identify and discuss methodological approaches that can improve standardization and comparability among studies.

  6. Global characteristics of zonal flows generated by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence in tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyato, Naoaki; Kishimoto, Yasuaki; Li, Jiquan

    2004-08-01

    Global structure of zonal flows driven by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence in tokamak plasmas is investigated using a global electromagnetic Landau fluid code. Characteristics of the coupled system of the zonal flows and the turbulence change with the safety factor q. In a low q region stationary zonal flows are excited and suppress the turbulence effectively. Coupling between zonal flows and poloidally asymmetric pressure perturbations via a geodesic curvature makes the zonal flows oscillatory in a high q region. Also we identify energy transfer from the zonal flows to the turbulence via the poloidally asymmetric pressure perturbations in the high q region. Therefore in the high q region the zonal flows cannot quench the turbulent transport completely. (author)

  7. Microturbogas cogeneration systems for distributed generation: Effects of ambient temperature on global performance and components’ behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caresana, F.; Pelagalli, L.; Comodi, G.; Renzi, M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Electrical power reduces with temperature, heat recovery remains almost constant. • Thermal-to-electrical power ratio increases with ambient temperature. • Not only the density of sucked air decreases but also its volumetric flow. • Putting a limit to shaft speed causes TIT to decrease with ambient temperature. • Power reduction with ambient temperature more than doubles that of great GTs. - Abstract: Microturbines (MGTs) are a relatively new technology that is currently attracting a lot of interest in the distributed generation market. Particularly interesting is their use as backup source for integrating photovoltaic panels or/and wind turbines in hybrid systems. In this case the sensitivity to ambient conditions of the MGT adds to that of the renewables and the knowledge of the effects of ambient conditions on its performance becomes a key subject both for the sizing of the energy system and for its optimal dynamic control. Although the dependence of medium/large gas turbines performance on atmospheric conditions is well known and documented in literature, there are very limited reports available on MGTs and they regard only global parameters. The paper aims at filling this lack of information by analyzing the ambient temperature effect on the global performance of an MGT in cogeneration arrangement and by entering in detail into its machines’ behavior. A simulation code, tuned on experimental data, is used for this purpose. Starting from the nominal ISO conditions, electrical power output is shown to decrease with ambient temperature at a rate of about 1.22%/°C, due to a reduction of both air density and volumetric flow. Meanwhile, thermal to electrical power ratio increases at a rate of about 1.30%/°C. As temperature increases compressor delivers less air at a lower pressure, and the turbine expansion ratio and mass flow reduce accordingly. With the in-use control system the turbine inlet temperature reduces at a rate of 0.07%/

  8. Past surface temperature changes as derived from continental temperature logs - Canadian and some global examples of application of a new tool in climate change studies

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Skinner, W.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 47, - (2004), s. 113-174 ISSN 0065-2687 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK3046108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : well temperature * global warming * surface temperature Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.667, year: 2004

  9. Global analysis of the temperature and flow fields in samples heated in multizone resistance furnaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Grande, I.; Rivas, D.; de Pablo, V.

    The temperature field in samples heated in multizone resistance furnaces will be analyzed, using a global model where the temperature fields in the sample, the furnace and the insulation are coupled; the input thermal data is the electric power supplied to the heaters. The radiation heat exchange between the sample and the furnace is formulated analytically, taking into account specular reflections at the sample; for the solid sample the reflectance is both diffuse and specular, and for the melt it is mostly specular. This behavior is modeled through the exchange view factors, which depend on whether the sample is solid or liquid, and, therefore, they are not known a priori. The effect of this specular behavior in the temperature field will be analyzed, by comparing with the case of diffuse samples. A parameter of great importance is the thermal conductivity of the insulation material; it will be shown that the temperature field depends strongly on it. A careful characterization of the insulation is therefore necessary, here it will be done with the aid of experimental results, which will also serve to validate the model. The heating process in the floating-zone technique in microgravity conditions will be simulated; parameters like the Marangoni number or the temperature gradient at the melt-crystal interface will be estimated. Application to the case of compound samples (graphite-silicon-graphite) will be made; the temperature distribution in the silicon part will be studied, especially the temperature difference between the two graphite rods that hold the silicon, since it drives the thermocapillary flow in the melt. This flow will be studied, after coupling the previous model with the convective effects. The possibility of suppresing this flow by the controlled vibration of the graphite rods will be also analyzed. Numerical results show that the thermocapillary flow can indeed be counterbalanced quite effectively.

  10. A diagnostic study of temperature controls on global terrestrial carbon exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vukicevic, Tomislava; Schimel, David

    2001-01-01

    The observed interannual variability of atmospheric CO 2 reflects short-term variability in sources and sinks of CO 2 . Analyses using 13 C and O 2 suggest that much of the observed interannual variability is due to changes in terrestrial CO 2 exchange. First principles, empirical correlations and process models suggest a link between climate variation and net ecosystem exchange, but the scaling of ecological process studies to the globe is notoriously difficult. We sought to identify a component of global CO 2 exchange that varied coherently with land temperature anomalies using an inverse modeling approach. We developed a family of simplified spatially aggregated ecosystem models (designated K-model versions) consisting of five compartments: atmospheric CO 2 , live vegetation, litter, and two soil pools that differ in turnover times. The pools represent cumulative differences from mean storage due to temperature variability and can thus have positive or negative values. Uptake and respiration of CO 2 are assumed to be linearly dependent on temperature. One model version includes a simple representation of the nitrogen cycle in which changes in the litter and soil carbon pools result in stoichiometric release of plant-available nitrogen, the other omits the nitrogen feedback. The model parameters were estimated by inversion of the model against global temperature and CO 2 anomaly data using the variational method. We found that the temperature sensitivity of carbon uptake (NPP) was less than that of respiration in all model versions. Analyses of model and data also showed that temperature anomalies trigger ecosystem changes on multiple, lagged time-scales. Other recent studies have suggested a more active land biosphere at Northern latitudes in response to warming and longer growing seasons. Our results indicate that warming should increase NPP, consistent with this theory, but that respiration should increase more than NPP, leading to decreased or negative NEP. A

  11. Moving to Google Cloud: Renovation of Global Borehole Temperature Database for Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Y.; Huang, S.

    2013-12-01

    Borehole temperature comprises an independent archive of information on climate change which is complementary to the instrumental and other proxy climate records. With support from the international geothermal community, a global database of borehole temperatures has been constructed for the specific purpose of the study on climate change. Although this database has become an important data source in climate research, there are certain limitations partially because the framework of the existing borehole temperature database was hand-coded some twenty years ago. A database renovation work is now underway to take the advantages of the contemporary online database technologies. The major intended improvements include 1) dynamically linking a borehole site to Google Earth to allow for inspection of site specific geographical information; 2) dynamically linking an original key reference of a given borehole site to Google Scholar to allow for a complete list of related publications; and 3) enabling site selection and data download based on country, coordinate range, and contributor. There appears to be a good match between the enhancement requirements for this database and the functionalities of the newly released Google Fusion Tables application. Google Fusion Tables is a cloud-based service for data management, integration, and visualization. This experimental application can consolidate related online resources such as Google Earth, Google Scholar, and Google Drive for sharing and enriching an online database. It is user friendly, allowing users to apply filters and to further explore the internet for additional information regarding the selected data. The users also have ways to map, to chart, and to calculate on the selected data, and to download just the subset needed. The figure below is a snapshot of the database currently under Google Fusion Tables renovation. We invite contribution and feedback from the geothermal and climate research community to make the

  12. Assimilation of global radar backscatter and radiometer brightness temperature observations to improve soil moisture and land evaporation estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lievens, H.; Martens, B.; Verhoest, N.E.C.; Hahn, S.; Reichle, R.H.; Gonzalez Miralles, D.

    2016-01-01

    Active radar backscatter (σ°) observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and passive radiometer brightness temperature (TB) observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated either individually or jointly into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model

  13. Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jueterbock, A; Franssen, S U; Bergmann, N; Gu, J; Coyer, J A; Reusch, T B H; Bornberg-Bauer, E; Olsen, J L

    2016-11-01

    Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina, the most widely distributed seagrass in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A North-South pair of populations was sampled along the European and North American coasts and exposed to a simulated heatwave in a common-garden mesocosm. Transcriptomic responses under control, heat stress and recovery were recorded in 99 RNAseq libraries with ~13 000 uniquely annotated, expressed genes. We corrected for phylogenetic differentiation among populations to discriminate neutral from adaptive differentiation. The two southern populations recovered faster from heat stress and showed parallel transcriptomic differentiation, as compared with northern populations. Among 2389 differentially expressed genes, 21 exceeded neutral expectations and were likely involved in parallel adaptation to warm temperatures. However, the strongest differentiation following phylogenetic correction was between the three Atlantic populations and the Mediterranean population with 128 of 4711 differentially expressed genes exceeding neutral expectations. Although adaptation to warm temperatures is expected to reduce sensitivity to heatwaves, the continued resistance of seagrass to further anthropogenic stresses may be impaired by heat-induced downregulation of genes related to photosynthesis, pathogen defence and stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Global equatorial sea-surface temperatures over the last 150,000 years: An update from foraminiferal elemental analysis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.

    for the warmest waters. However, how the equatorial SST affects global climate, is still not clear. Long-term past seawater temperature records are required to understand the effect of temporal changes in equatorial SST on the global climate. Various techniques...

  15. Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

  16. Ocean heat content and ocean energy budget: make better use of historical global subsurface temperature dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Zhu, J.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean heat content (OHC) change contributes substantially to global sea level rise, also is a key metric of the ocean/global energy budget, so it is a vital task for the climate research community to estimate historical OHC. While there are large uncertainties regarding its value, here we review the OHC calculation by using the historical global subsurface temperature dataset, and discuss the sources of its uncertainty. The presentation briefly introduces how to correct to the systematic biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, a alternative way of filling data gaps (which is main focus of this talk), and how to choose a proper climatology. A new reconstruction of historical upper (0-700 m) OHC change will be presented, which is the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) version of historical upper OHC assessment. The authors also want to highlight the impact of observation system change on OHC calculation, which could lead to bias in OHC estimates. Furthermore, we will compare the updated observational-based estimates on ocean heat content change since 1970s with CMIP5 results. This comparison shows good agreement, increasing the confidence of the climate models in representing the climate history.

  17. What Fraction of Global Fire Activity Can Be Forecast Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Morton, D. C.; Andela, N.; Giglio, L.

    2015-12-01

    Variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can influence climate dynamics in local and remote land areas, and thus influence fire-climate interactions that govern burned area. SST information has been recently used in statistical models to create seasonal outlooks of fire season severity in South America and as the initial condition for dynamical model predictions of fire activity in Indonesia. However, the degree to which large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions can influence burned area in other continental regions has not been systematically explored. Here we quantified the amount of global burned area that can be predicted using SSTs in 14 different oceans regions as statistical predictors. We first examined lagged correlations between GFED4s burned area and the 14 ocean climate indices (OCIs) individually. The maximum correlations from different OCIs were used to construct a global map of fire predictability. About half of the global burned area can be forecast by this approach 3 months before the peak burning month (with a Pearson's r of 0.5 or higher), with the highest levels of predictability in Central America and Equatorial Asia. Several hotspots of predictability were identified using k-means cluster analysis. Within these regions, we tested the improvements of the forecast by using two OCIs from different oceans. Our forecast models were based on near-real-time SST data and may therefore support the development of new seasonal outlooks for fire activity that can aid the sustainable management of these fire-prone ecosystems.

  18. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  19. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  20. Temperature drives global patterns in forest biomass distribution in leaves, stems, and roots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Peter B; Luo, Yunjian; Bradford, John B; Poorter, Hendrik; Perry, Charles H; Oleksyn, Jacek

    2014-09-23

    Whether the fraction of total forest biomass distributed in roots, stems, or leaves varies systematically across geographic gradients remains unknown despite its importance for understanding forest ecology and modeling global carbon cycles. It has been hypothesized that plants should maintain proportionally more biomass in the organ that acquires the most limiting resource. Accordingly, we hypothesize greater biomass distribution in roots and less in stems and foliage in increasingly arid climates and in colder environments at high latitudes. Such a strategy would increase uptake of soil water in dry conditions and of soil nutrients in cold soils, where they are at low supply and are less mobile. We use a large global biomass dataset (>6,200 forests from 61 countries, across a 40 °C gradient in mean annual temperature) to address these questions. Climate metrics involving temperature were better predictors of biomass partitioning than those involving moisture availability, because, surprisingly, fractional distribution of biomass to roots or foliage was unrelated to aridity. In contrast, in increasingly cold climates, the proportion of total forest biomass in roots was greater and in foliage was smaller for both angiosperm and gymnosperm forests. These findings support hypotheses about adaptive strategies of forest trees to temperature and provide biogeographically explicit relationships to improve ecosystem and earth system models. They also will allow, for the first time to our knowledge, representations of root carbon pools that consider biogeographic differences, which are useful for quantifying whole-ecosystem carbon stocks and cycles and for assessing the impact of climate change on forest carbon dynamics.

  1. Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

    2017-12-01

    Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to

  2. Estimating Daily Global Evapotranspiration Using Penman–Monteith Equation and Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Raoufi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily evapotranspiration (ET is modeled globally for the period 2000–2013 based on the Penman–Monteith equation with radiation and vapor pressures derived using remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites. The ET for a given land area is based on four surface conditions: wet/dry and vegetated/non-vegetated. For each, the ET resistance terms are based on land cover, leaf area index (LAI and literature values. The vegetated/non-vegetated fractions of the land surface are estimated using land cover, LAI, a simplified version of the Beer–Lambert law for describing light transition through vegetation and newly derived light extension coefficients for each MODIS land cover type. The wet/dry fractions of the land surface are nonlinear functions of LST derived humidity calibrated using in-situ ET measurements. Results are compared to in-situ measurements (average of the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors for 39 sites are 0.81 mm day−1 and 0.59 mm day−1, respectively and the MODIS ET product, MOD16, (mean bias during 2001–2013 is −0.2 mm day−1. Although the mean global difference between MOD16 and ET estimates is only 0.2 mm day−1, local temperature derived vapor pressures are the likely contributor to differences, especially in energy and water limited regions. The intended application for the presented model is simulating ET based on long-term climate forecasts (e.g., using only minimum, maximum and mean daily or monthly temperatures.

  3. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia

    2017-05-01

    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (rTG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (rPG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  4. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MYD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  5. MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — MODIS/Terra Land Surface Temperature/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MOD21A2.006). A new suite of MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Emissivity...

  6. AVHRR Pathfinder version 5.3 level 3 collated (L3C) global 4km sea surface temperature

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.3 (PFV53) L3C Sea Surface Temperature data set is a collection of global, twice-daily (Day and Night) 4km sea surface temperature...

  7. A mathematical correlation between variations in solar radiation parameters. 2. Global radiation, air temperature and specific humidity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-06-01

    We derive from first principles, an equation which expresses global radiation as a function of specific humidity and air temperature at screen height. The practical validity of this equation is tested by using humidity, air temperature and global radiation data from Tanzania. It is shown that global radiation values calculated on the basis of the derived equation agree with measured radiation values to within ± 8% as long as the prevalent (horizontal) winds are either calm or light. It is noted that the equation is equally valid at times of strong horizontal winds provided that the temperature and humidity measuring site is sufficiently shielded from the winds. This implies that meteorological stations that are (for some unavoidable reasons) unable to stock pyranometers can still procure reasonable estimates of local global radiation as long as they can, at least, stock the relatively cheaper barometers and wet- and dry-bulb psychrometers. (author). 12 refs, 1 fig., 4 tabs

  8. A global weighted mean temperature model based on empirical orthogonal function analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qinzheng; Chen, Peng; Sun, Langlang; Ma, Xiaping

    2018-03-01

    A global empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model of the tropospheric weighted mean temperature called GEOFM_Tm was developed using high-precision Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere Tm data during the years 2008-2014. Due to the quick convergence of EOF decomposition, it is possible to use the first four EOF series, which consists base functions Uk and associated coefficients Pk, to represent 99.99% of the overall variance of the original data sets and its spatial-temporal variations. Results show that U1 displays a prominent latitude distribution profile with positive peaks located at low latitude region. U2 manifests an asymmetric pattern that positive values occurred over 30° in the Northern Hemisphere, and negative values were observed at other regions. U3 and U4 displayed significant anomalies in Tibet and North America, respectively. Annual variation is the major component of the first and second associated coefficients P1 and P2, whereas P3 and P4 mainly reflects both annual and semi-annual variation components. Furthermore, the performance of constructed GEOFM_Tm was validated by comparison with GTm_III and GTm_N with different kinds of data including GGOS Atmosphere Tm data in 2015 and radiosonde data from Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) in 2014. Generally speaking, GEOFM_Tm can achieve the same accuracy and reliability as GTm_III and GTm_N models in a global scale, even has improved in the Antarctic and Greenland regions. The MAE and RMS of GEOFM_Tm tend to be 2.49 K and 3.14 K with respect to GGOS Tm data, respectively; and 3.38 K and 4.23 K with respect to IGRA sounding data, respectively. In addition, those three models have higher precision at low latitude than middle and high latitude regions. The magnitude of Tm remains at the range of 220-300 K, presented a high correlation with geographic latitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, there was a significant enhancement at high latitude region reaching 270 K during summer

  9. A GLOBAL TWO-TEMPERATURE CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE MODEL: A COMPREHENSIVE VALIDATION STUDY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; Van der Holst, B.; Gruesbeck, J. R.; Frazin, R. A.; Landi, E.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I. [Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Vasquez, A. M. [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (CONICET-UBA) and FCEN (UBA), CC 67, Suc 28, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Lamy, P. L.; Llebaria, A.; Fedorov, A., E-mail: jinmeng@umich.edu [Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Marseille, Universite de Provence, Marseille (France)

    2012-01-20

    The recent solar minimum with very low activity provides us a unique opportunity for validating solar wind models. During CR2077 (2008 November 20 through December 17), the number of sunspots was near the absolute minimum of solar cycle 23. For this solar rotation, we perform a multi-spacecraft validation study for the recently developed three-dimensional, two-temperature, Alfven-wave-driven global solar wind model (a component within the Space Weather Modeling Framework). By using in situ observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) A and B, Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and Venus Express, we compare the observed proton state (density, temperature, and velocity) and magnetic field of the heliosphere with that predicted by the model. Near the Sun, we validate the numerical model with the electron density obtained from the solar rotational tomography of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph C2 data in the range of 2.4 to 6 solar radii. Electron temperature and density are determined from differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) of STEREO A and B Extreme Ultraviolet Imager data in the range of 1.035 to 1.225 solar radii. The electron density and temperature derived from the Hinode/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer data are also used to compare with the DEMT as well as the model output. Moreover, for the first time, we compare ionic charge states of carbon, oxygen, silicon, and iron observed in situ with the ACE/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer with those predicted by our model. The validation results suggest that most of the model outputs for CR2077 can fit the observations very well. Based on this encouraging result, we therefore expect great improvement for the future modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and CME-driven shocks.

  10. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  11. A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Annan

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Some recent compilations of proxy data both on land and ocean (MARGO Project Members, 2009; Bartlein et al., 2011; Shakun et al., 2012, have provided a new opportunity for an improved assessment of the overall climatic state of the Last Glacial Maximum. In this paper, we combine these proxy data with the ensemble of structurally diverse state of the art climate models which participated in the PMIP2 project (Braconnot et al., 2007 to generate a spatially complete reconstruction of surface air (and sea surface temperatures. We test a variety of approaches, and show that multiple linear regression performs well for this application. Our reconstruction is significantly different to and more accurate than previous approaches and we obtain an estimated global mean cooling of 4.0 ± 0.8 °C (95% CI.

  12. Global Model of Time-Modulated Electronegative Discharges for Neutral Radical and Electron Temperature Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungjin; Lieberman, M. A.; Lichtenberg, A. J.

    2003-10-01

    Control and reduction of neutral radical flux/ion flux ratio and electron temperature Te is required for next generation etching in the microelectronics industry. We investigate time-modulated power for these purposes using a volume-averaged (global) oxygen discharge model, We consider pressures of 10-50 mTorr and plasma densities of 10^10-10^11 cm-3. In this regime, the discharge is found to be weakly electronegative. The modulation period and the duty ratio (on-time/period) are varied to determine the optimum conditions for reduction of FR= O-atom flux/ion flux and T_e. Two chambers with different height/diameter ratios (SMART Contract SM99-10051.

  13. Global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2007-08-01

    Data on colony growth of the branching coral Acropora palmata from fringing reefs off Discovery Bay on the north coast of Jamaica have been obtained over the period 2002-2007 using underwater photography and image analysis by both SCUBA and remotely using an ROV incorporating twin lasers. Growth modelling shows that while logarithmic growth is an approximate model for growth, a 3:3 rational polynomial function provides a significantly better fit to growth data for this coral species. Over the period 2002-2007, involving several cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) change, the rate of growth of A. palmata was largely proportional to rate of change of SST, with R(2)=0.935. These results have implications for the influence of global warming and climate change on coral reef ecosystems.

  14. AATSR: global-change and surface-temperature measurements from Envisat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Edwards, M. C.; Mutlow, C. T.; Birks, A. R.; Barton, I. J.; Tait, H.

    2001-02-01

    The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) onboard ESA's Envisat spacecraft is designed to meet the challenging task of monitoring and detecting climate change. It builds on the success of its predecessor instruments on the ERS-1 and ERS-2 satellites, and will lead to a 15+ year record of precise and accurate global Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) measurements, thereby making a valuable contribution to the long-term climate record. With its high-accuracy, high-quality imagery and channels in the visible, near-infrared and thermal wavelengths, AATSR data will support many applications in addition to oceanographic and climate research, including a wide range of land-surface, cryosphere and atmospheric studies.

  15. An evaluation of temperature and precipitation from global and regional climate models over Scandinavia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Precipitation and temperature from global (GCMs) and regional (RCMs) climate models are compared with reanalysis and observations over Scandinavia. Also projections for the next 50-100 years are considered. The climate development is visualised as moving averages (1920-2100). Box plots are used to illuminate how well GCM runs capture the observed seasonal cycle. Maps show the seasonal difference between results from control runs (RCM) and observations (E-OBS dataset) for the reference period 1981-2000. Plots illustrate the RCM-representation of seasonal temperature and precipitations cycle for five locations in Norway and Sweden: Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, Tromsoe and Oestersund. The results show rather large differences between control runs and observations, demonstrating the need for bias correction of results from climate models. To get an indicator of which GC M-RCM-combination give the best representation of present climate over Scandinavia, a model ranking is provided. The performance measure used is the root-mean-square deviation of mean monthly and seasonal values. The data is compared both in an area-weighted spatial average of the whole domain as well as for the selected locations. The results indicate that the regional models RACMO2 and RCA show the smallest deviations from observed climate. Among the top ranking GCM-RCM combinations, most were driven by the global model ECHAM5 and some by a version of HadCM3. These two GCMs are also present among the worst performing GCM-RCM combinations indicating that selection of RCMs is crucial. (Author)

  16. Variations of global gravity waves derived from 14 years of SABER temperature observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiao; Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Garcia, Rolando R.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin; Wu, Dong L.; Nakamura, Takuji

    2017-06-01

    The global gravity wave (GW) potential energy (PE) per unit mass is derived from SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) temperature profiles over the past 14 years (2002-2015). Since the SABER data cover longer than one solar cycle, multivariate linear regression is applied to calculate the trend (means linear trend from 2002 to 2015) of global GW PE and the responses of global GW PE to solar activity, to QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) and to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). We find a significant positive trend of GW PE at around 50°N during July from 2002 to 2015, in agreement with ground-based radar observations at a similar latitude but from 1990 to 2010. Both the monthly and the deseasonalized trends of GW PE are significant near 50°S. Specifically, the deseasonalized trend of GW PE has a positive peak of 12-15% per decade at 40°S-50°S and below 60 km, which suggests that eddy diffusion is increasing in some places. A significant positive trend of GW PE near 50°S could be due to the strengthening of the polar stratospheric jets, as documented from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications wind data. The response of GW PE to solar activity is negative in the lower and middle latitudes. The response of GW PE to QBO (as indicated by 30 hPa zonal winds over the equator) is negative in the tropical upper stratosphere and extends to higher latitudes at higher altitudes. The response of GW PE to ENSO (as indicated by the Multivariate ENSO Index) is positive in the tropical upper stratosphere.

  17. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  18. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

  19. Gyrokinetic global analysis of ion temperature gradient driven mode in reversed shear tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idomura, Y.; Tokuda, S.; Kishimoto, Y.

    2003-01-01

    A new toroidal gyrokinetic particle code has been developed to study the ion temperature gradient driven (ITG) turbulence in reactor relevant tokamak parameters. We use a new method based on a canonical Maxwellian distribution F CM (P φ , ε, μ), which is defined by three constants of motion in the axisymmetric toroidal system, the canonical angular momentum P φ , the energy ε, and the magnetic moment μ. A quasi-ballooning representation enables linear and nonlinear high-m,n global calculations with a good numerical convergence. Conservation properties are improved by using the optimized loading method. From comprehensive linear global analyses over a wide range of an unstable toroidal mode number spectrum (n=0∼100) in large tokamak parameters (a/ρ ti =320∼460), properties of the ITG modes in reversed shear tokamaks are discussed. In the nonlinear simulation, it is found that a new method based on F CM can simulate a zonal flow damping correctly, and spurious zonal flow oscillations, which are observed in a conventional method based on a local Maxwellian distribution F LM (ψ, ε, μ), do not appear in the nonlinear regime. (author)

  20. Global view of F-region electron density and temperature at solar maximum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brace, L.H.; Theis, R.F.; Hoegy, W.R.

    1982-01-01

    Dynamics Explorer-2 is permitting the first measurements of the global structure of the F-regions at very high levels of solar activity (S>200). Selected full orbits of Langmuir probe measurements of electron temperature, T/sub e/, and density, N/sub e/, are shown to illustrate this global structure and some of the ionospheric features that are the topic of other papers in this issue. The ionospheric thermal structure is of particular interest because T/sub e/ is a sensitive indicator of the coupling of magnetospheric energy into the upper atmosphere. A comparison of these heating effects with those observed at solar minimum shows that the magnetospheric sources are more important at solar maximum, as might have been expected. Heating at the cusp, the auroral oval and the plasma-pause is generally both greater and more variable. Electron cooling rate calculations employing low latitude measurements indicate that solar extreme ultraviolet heating of the F region at solar maximum is enhanced by a factor that is greater than the increase in solar flux. Some of this enhanced electron heating arises from the increase in electron heating efficiency at the higher N/sub e/ of solar maximum, but this appears insufficient to completely resolve the discrepancy

  1. A model–data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lohmann

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST in the models shows a high-latitude cooling and a low-latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 yr. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We test if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We explore whether consideration of different growing seasons and depth habitats of the planktonic organisms used for temperature reconstruction could lead to a better agreement of model results with proxy data on a regional scale. The extent to which temporal shifts in growing season or vertical shifts in depth habitat can reduce model–data misfits is determined. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model–data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modelled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behaviour of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Results indicate that modelled and reconstructed

  2. Global climate change: impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Ou, Chun-Quan; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Zhou, Qin; Shen, Gi-Chuan; Chen, Ping-Yan; Guo, Yuming

    2013-04-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, but little is known about the effects of DTR on mortality. We examined the effects of DTR on cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China during 2003-2010. A quasi-Poisson regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the effects of DTR, after controlling for daily mean temperature, air pollutants, season and day of the week. A 1 °C increase in DTR at lag 0-4 days was associated with a 0.47% (95% confidence interval: 0.01%-0.93%) increase in non-accidental mortality. Stroke mortality was most sensitive to DTR. Female, the elderly and those with low education were more susceptible to DTR than male, the youth and those with high education, respectively. Our findings suggest that vulnerable subpopulations should pay more attention to protect themselves from unstable daily weather. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2015-04-02

    One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.

  4. Compressing an Ensemble with Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific data sets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a non-trivial model to a data set of one billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 10^18 entries.

  5. Global embedding of D-dimensional black holes with a cosmological constant in Minkowskian spacetimes: Matching between Hawking temperature and Unruh temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Nuno Loureiro; Dias, Oscar J.C.; Lemos, Jose P.S.

    2004-01-01

    We study the matching between the Hawking temperature of a large class of static D-dimensional black holes and the Unruh temperature of the corresponding higher dimensional Rindler spacetime. In order to accomplish this task we find the global embedding of the D-dimensional black holes into a higher dimensional Minkowskian spacetime, called the global embedding Minkowskian spacetime procedure (GEMS procedure). These global embedding transformations are important on their own, since they provide a powerful tool that simplifies the study of black hole physics by working instead, but equivalently, in an accelerated Rindler frame in a flat background geometry. We discuss neutral and charged Tangherlini black holes with and without cosmological constant, and in the negative cosmological constant case, we consider the three allowed topologies for the horizons (spherical, cylindrical/toroidal, and hyperbolic)

  6. Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, D S; Mahowald, N M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ T s ), future Δ T s through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ T s that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ T s ). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ T s from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO 2 -equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ T s evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ T s attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

  7. The global SMOS Level 3 daily soil moisture and brightness temperature maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Al Bitar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present the multi-orbit (MO surface soil moisture (SM and angle-binned brightness temperature (TB products for the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission based on a new multi-orbit algorithm. The Level 3 algorithm at CATDS (Centre Aval de Traitement des Données SMOS makes use of MO retrieval to enhance the robustness and quality of SM retrievals. The motivation of the approach is to make use of the longer temporal autocorrelation length of the vegetation optical depth (VOD compared to the corresponding SM autocorrelation in order to enhance the retrievals when an acquisition occurs at the border of the swath. The retrieval algorithm is implemented in a unique operational processor delivering multiple parameters (e.g. SM and VOD using multi-angular dual-polarisation TB from MO. A subsidiary angle-binned TB product is provided. In this study the Level 3 TB V310 product is showcased and compared to SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive TB. The Level 3 SM V300 product is compared to the single-orbit (SO retrievals from the Level 2 SM processor from ESA with aligned configuration. The advantages and drawbacks of the Level 3 SM product (L3SM are discussed. The comparison is done on a global scale between the two datasets and on the local scale with respect to in situ data from AMMA-CATCH and USDA ARS Watershed networks. The results obtained from the global analysis show that the MO implementation enhances the number of retrievals: up to 9 % over certain areas. The comparison with the in situ data shows that the increase in the number of retrievals does not come with a decrease in quality, but rather at the expense of an increased time lag in product availability from 6 h to 3.5 days, which can be a limiting factor for applications like flood forecast but reasonable for drought monitoring and climate change studies. The SMOS L3 soil moisture and L3 brightness temperature products are delivered using an

  8. Toward Spectroscopically Detecting the Global Latitudinal Temperature Variation on the Solar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Y.; UeNo, S.

    2017-09-01

    A very slight rotation-induced latitudinal temperature variation (presumably on the order of several kelvin) on the solar surface is theoretically expected. While recent high-precision solar brightness observations reported its detection, confirmation by an alternative approach using the strengths of spectral lines is desirable, for which reducing the noise due to random fluctuation caused by atmospheric inhomogeneity is critical. Toward this difficult task, we carried out a pilot study of spectroscopically investigating the relative variation of temperature (T) at a number of points in the solar circumference region near to the limb (where latitude dependence should be detectable, if any exists) based on the equivalent widths (W) of 28 selected lines in the 5367 - 5393 Å and 6075 - 6100 Å regions. We paid special attention to i) clarifying which types of lines should be employed and ii) how much precision is attainable in practice. We found that lines with strong T-sensitivity (|log W/log T|) should be used and that very weak lines should be avoided because they inevitably suffer strong relative fluctuations (Δ W/W). Our analysis revealed that a precision of Δ T/T ≈ 0.003 (corresponding to ≈ 15 K) can be achieved at best by a spectral line with comparatively large |log W/log T|, although this can possibly be further improved When a number of lines are used all together. Accordingly, if many such favorable lines could be measured with subpercent precision of Δ W/W and by averaging the resulting Δ T/T from each line, the random noise would eventually be reduced to ≲ 1 K and detection of a very subtle amount of global T-gradient might be possible.

  9. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after "Paris": an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2018-02-01

    In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical) trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend-dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

  10. Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Visser

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since large financial flows will be needed to keep GMSTs below these targets, it is important to know how GMST has progressed since pre-industrial times. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. Should trend progression be deduced from GCM simulations or from instrumental records by (statistical trend methods? Which simulations or GMST datasets should be chosen, and which trend models? What is pre-industrial and, finally, are the Paris targets formulated for total warming, originating from both natural and anthropogenic forcing, or do they refer to anthropogenic warming only? To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets and model choices have been varied. For all cases we evaluated trend progression along with uncertainty information. To do so, we analysed four trend approaches and applied these to the five leading observational GMST products. We find GMST progression to be largely independent of various trend model approaches. However, GMST progression is significantly influenced by the choice of GMST datasets. Uncertainties due to natural variability are largest in size. As a parallel path, we calculated GMST progression from an ensemble of 42 GCM simulations. Mean progression derived from GCM-based GMSTs appears to lie in the range of trend–dataset combinations. A difference between both approaches appears to be the width of uncertainty bands: GCM simulations show a much wider spread. Finally, we discuss various choices for pre-industrial baselines and the role of warming definitions. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in GMSTs since pre-industrial.

  11. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  12. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  13. The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

  14. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

    2018-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

  15. Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujiwara

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

  16. Global Sea Surface Temperature: A Harmonized Multi-sensor Time-series from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents the methods used to obtain a new global sea surface temperature (SST) dataset spanning the early 1980s to the present, intended for use as a climate data record (CDR). The dataset provides skin SST (the fundamental measurement) and an estimate of the daily mean SST at depths compatible with drifting buoys (adjusting for skin and diurnal variability). The depth SST provided enables the CDR to be used with in situ records and centennial-scale SST reconstructions. The new SST timeseries is as independent as possible from in situ observations, and from 1995 onwards is harmonized to an independent satellite reference (namely, SSTs from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (Advanced ATSR)). This maximizes the utility of our new estimates of variability and long-term trends in interrogating previous datasets tied to in situ observations. The new SSTs include full resolution (swath, level 2) data, single-sensor gridded data (level 3, 0.05 degree latitude-longitude grid) and a multi-sensor optimal analysis (level 4, same grid). All product levels are consistent. All SSTs have validated uncertainty estimates attached. The sensors used include all Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers from NOAA-6 onwards and the ATSR series. AVHRR brightness temperatures (BTs) are calculated from counts using a new in-flight re-calibration for each sensor, ultimately linked through to the AATSR BT calibration by a new harmonization technique. Artefacts in AVHRR BTs linked to varying instrument temperature, orbital regime and solar contamination are significantly reduced. These improvements in the AVHRR BTs (level 1) translate into improved cloud detection and SST (level 2). For cloud detection, we use a Bayesian approach for all sensors. For the ATSRs, SSTs are derived with sufficient accuracy and sensitivity using dual-view coefficients. This is not the case for single-view AVHRR observations, for which a physically based retrieval is employed, using a hybrid

  17. Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios for BC : meeting the twin objectives of temperature stabilization and global equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, C.R.

    2008-08-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategies are needed in order to prevent rises in global temperatures. This report presented 6 GHG emission scenarios conducted to understand the kind of contribution that the province of British Columbia (BC) might make towards reducing global warming in the future. Short, medium, and longer term GHG reduction targets were benchmarked. The University of Victoria earth system climate model was used to calculate emission pathways where global average temperature did not exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial values, and where atmospheric GHGs were stabilized at 400 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Global carbon emission budgets of the total amount of GHG emissions permissible between now and 2100 were identified. A carbon emission budget for 2008 to 2100 was then developed based on the population of BC. Average annual emission reduction rates for the world and for BC were also identified. It was concluded that dramatically reduced emissions will be insufficient to achieve an equilibrium temperature less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Global reductions of greater than 80 per cent are needed to prevent unacceptable levels of ocean acidification. Results suggested that carbon sequestration technologies may need to be used to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere by artificial means. 38 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

  18. Temperature minima in the average thermal structure of the middle mesosphere (70 - 80 km) from analysis of 40- to 92-km SME global temperature profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clancy, R. Todd; Rusch, David W.; Callan, Michael T.

    1994-01-01

    Global temperatures have been derived for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere from analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) limb radiance profiles. The SME temperature represent fixed local time observations at 1400 - 1500 LT, with partial zonal coverage of 3 - 5 longitudes per day over the 1982-1986 period. These new SME temperatures are compared to the COSPAR International Ionosphere Reference Atmosphere 86 (CIRA 86) climatology (Fleming et al., 1990) as well as stratospheric and mesospheric sounder (SAMS); Barnett and Corney, 1984), National Meteorological Center (NMC); (Gelman et al., 1986), and individual lidar and rocket observations. Significant areas of disagreement between the SME and CIRA 86 mesospheric temperatures are 10 K warmer SME temperatures at altitudes above 80 km. The 1981-1982 SAMS temperatures are in much closer agreement with the SME temperatures between 40 and 75 km. Although much of the SME-CIRA 86 disagreement probably stems from the poor vertical resolution of the observations comprising the CIRA 86 modelm, some portion of the differences may reflect 5- to 10-year temporal variations in mesospheric temperatures. The CIRA 86 climatology is based on 1973-1978 measurements. Relatively large (1 K/yr) 5- to 10-year trends in temperatures as functions of longitude, latitude, and altitude have been observed for both the upper stratosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989a) and mesosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989b; Hauchecorne et al., 1991). The SME temperatures also exhibit enhanced amplitudes for the semiannual oscillation (SAO) of upper mesospheric temperatures at low latitudes, which are not evident in the CIRA 86 climatology. The so-called mesospheric `temperature inversions' at wintertime midlatitudes, which have been observed by ground-based lidar (Hauschecorne et al., 1987) and rocket in situ measurements (Schmidlin, 1976), are shown to be a climatological aspect of the mesosphere, based on the SME observations.

  19. Simply obtained global radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture in an alley cropping system in semi-arid Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mungai, D.N.; Stigter, C.J.; Coulson, C.L.; Ng'ang'a, J.K.

    2000-01-01

    Global radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture data were obtained from a 4-6 year old Cassia siamea/maize (CM) alley cropping (or hedgerow intercropping) system, at a semi-arid site at Machakos, Kenya, in the late eighties. With the growing need to explore and manage variations in

  20. The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

    2017-08-01

    The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

  1. Does a General Temperature-Dependent Q10 Model of Soil Respiration Exist at Biome and Global Scale?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hua CHEN; Han-Qin TIAN

    2005-01-01

    Soil respiration (SR) is commonly modeled by a Q10 (an indicator of temperature sensitivity)function in ecosystem models. Q10is usually treated as a constant of 2 in these models, although Q10 value of SR often decreases with increasing temperatures. It remains unclear whether a general temperaturedependent Q10 model of SR exists at biome and global scale. In this paper, we have compiled the long-term Q10 data of 38 SR studies ranging from the Boreal, Temperate, to Tropical/Subtropical biome on four continents.Our analysis indicated that the general temperature-dependent biome Q10 models of SR existed, especially in the Boreal and Temperate biomes. A single-exponential model was better than a simple linear model in fitting the average Q10 values at the biome scale. Average soil temperature is a better predictor of Q10 value than average air temperature in these models, especially in the Boreal biome. Soil temperature alone could explain about 50% of the Q10 variations in both the Boreal and Temperate biome single-exponential Q10 model. Q10 value of SR decreased with increasing soil temperature but at quite different rates among the three biome Q10 models. The k values (Q10 decay rate constants) were 0.09, 0.07, and 0.02/℃ in the Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical/Subtropical biome, respectively, suggesting that Q10 value is the most sensitive to soil temperature change in the Boreal biome, the second in the Temperate biome, and the least sensitive in the Tropical/Subtropical biome. This also indirectly confirms that acclimation of SR in many soil warming experiments probably occurs. The k value in the "global" single-exponential Q10 model which combined both the Boreal and Temperate biome data set was 0.08/℃. However, the global general temperature-dependent Q10model developed using the data sets of the three biomes is not adequate for predicting Q10 values of SR globally.The existence of the general temperature-dependent Q10 models of SR in the Boreal and

  2. Nitrogen transformations in response to temperature and rainfall manipulation in oak savanna: A global change experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, R. L.; Boutton, T. W.; Tjoelker, M. G.; Volder, A.; Briske, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to elevate global surface air temperatures by 1.1 to 6.4°C by the end of the century, and potentially magnify the intensity and variability of seasonal precipitation distribution. The mid-latitude grasslands of North America are predicted to experience substantial modification in precipitation regimes, with a shift towards drier summers and wetter spring and fall seasons. Despite these predictions, little is known concerning the effects of these global climate change drivers or their potential interactive effects on nitrogen (N) cycling processes. The purpose of this study is to quantify seasonal variation in rates of N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching in soil subjected to experimental warming and rainfall manipulation. Research was conducted at the Texas A&M Warming and Rainfall Manipulation (WaRM) Site in College Station where eight 9x18m rainout shelters and two unsheltered controls were established in post oak savanna in 2003. Replicate annual rainfall redistribution treatments (n = 4) are applied at the shelter level (long term mean vs. 40% of summer redistributed to fall and spring with same annual total). Warming treatments (ambient vs. 24-hr IR canopy warming of 1-3°C) were applied to planted monocultures of juniper and little bluestem, and a juniper-grass combination. Both juniper and little bluestem are key species within the post oak savanna region. Plots were sampled from the full factorial design during years six and seven of the WaRM experiment. Soil N-mineralization, nitrification, and N-losses via leaching were assessed quarterly for two years using the resin core incubation method. Rainfall, species composition, and time interacted significantly to influence both ammonification and nitrification. Highest rates of ammonification (0.115 mg NH4+ -N/ kg soil/day) occurred in grass monocultures during summer in the control rainfall plots, whereas highest rates of

  3. GHRSST Level 2P Global Bulk Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-17 satellite produced by NAVO (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...

  4. GHRSST Level 2P Global Bulk Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-17 satellite (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Level 2P Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals from the...

  5. AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.2 Level 3 Collated (L3C) Global 4km Sea Surface Temperature for 1981-2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.2 Sea Surface Temperature data set (PFV52) is a collection of global, twice-daily 4km sea surface temperature data produced in a...

  6. GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2) from NCEI (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...

  7. GHRSST Level 2P Global Bulk Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-16 satellite (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Level 2P Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals from the...

  8. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 5 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1982-2012 (NCEI Accession 0126774)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Version 5 of the Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a global, 4 km, sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics dataset for...

  9. An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

    2018-04-01

    Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

  10. Prediction of Daily Global Solar Radiation by Daily Temperatures and Artificial Neural Networks in Different Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. I Saedi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Global solar radiation is the sum of direct, diffuse, and reflected solar radiation. Weather forecasts, agricultural practices, and solar equipment development are three major fields that need proper information about solar radiation. Furthermore, sun in regarded as a huge source of renewable and clean energy which can be used in numerous applications to get rid of environmental impacts of non-renewable fossil fuels. Therefore, easy and fast estimation of daily global solar radiation would play an effective role is these affairs. Materials and Methods This study aimed at predicting the daily global solar radiation by means of artificial neural network (ANN method, based on easy-to-gain weather data i.e. daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures. Having a variety of climates with long-term valid weather data, Washington State, located at the northwestern part of USA was chosen for this purpose. It has a total number of 19 weather stations to cover all the State climates. First, a station with the largest number of valid historical weather data (Lind was chosen to develop, validate, and test different ANN models. Three training algorithms i.e. Levenberg – Marquardt (LM, Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG, and Bayesian regularization (BR were tested in one and two hidden layer networks each with up to 20 neurons to derive six best architectures. R, RMSE, MAPE, and scatter plots were considered to evaluate each network in all steps. In order to investigate the generalizability of the best six models, they were tested in other Washington State weather stations. The most accurate and general models was evaluated in an Iran sample weather station which was chosen to be Mashhad. Results and Discussion The variation of MSE for the three training functions in one hidden layer models for Lind station indicated that SCG converged weights and biases in shorter time than LM, and LM did that faster than BR. It means that SCG provided the fastest

  11. GHRSST Level 4 DMI_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the Danish...

  12. GHRSST Level 4 OSPO Global Nighttime Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Office of...

  13. GHRSST Level 4 G1SST Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the JPL OurOcean...

  14. GHRSST Level 4 K10_SST Global 1 meter Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Naval...

  15. GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...

  16. GHRSST Level 4 OSPO Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Office of...

  17. GHRSST Level 4 GAMSSA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Australian Bureau...

  18. GHRSST Level 4 OSTIA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the UK Met Office...

  19. High-speed Imaging of Global Surface Temperature Distributions on Hypersonic Ballistic-Range Projectiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilder, Michael C.; Reda, Daniel C.

    2004-01-01

    The NASA-Ames ballistic range provides a unique capability for aerothermodynamic testing of configurations in hypersonic, real-gas, free-flight environments. The facility can closely simulate conditions at any point along practically any trajectory of interest experienced by a spacecraft entering an atmosphere. Sub-scale models of blunt atmospheric entry vehicles are accelerated by a two-stage light-gas gun to speeds as high as 20 times the speed of sound to fly ballistic trajectories through an 24 m long vacuum-rated test section. The test-section pressure (effective altitude), the launch velocity of the model (flight Mach number), and the test-section working gas (planetary atmosphere) are independently variable. The model travels at hypersonic speeds through a quiescent test gas, creating a strong bow-shock wave and real-gas effects that closely match conditions achieved during actual atmospheric entry. The challenge with ballistic range experiments is to obtain quantitative surface measurements from a model traveling at hypersonic speeds. The models are relatively small (less than 3.8 cm in diameter), which limits the spatial resolution possible with surface mounted sensors. Furthermore, since the model is in flight, surface-mounted sensors require some form of on-board telemetry, which must survive the massive acceleration loads experienced during launch (up to 500,000 gravities). Finally, the model and any on-board instrumentation will be destroyed at the terminal wall of the range. For these reasons, optical measurement techniques are the most practical means of acquiring data. High-speed thermal imaging has been employed in the Ames ballistic range to measure global surface temperature distributions and to visualize the onset of transition to turbulent-flow on the forward regions of hypersonic blunt bodies. Both visible wavelength and infrared high-speed cameras are in use. The visible wavelength cameras are intensified CCD imagers capable of integration

  20. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A La Sorte

    Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among

  1. Global Validation of MODIS Atmospheric Profile-Derived Near-Surface Air Temperature and Dew Point Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Famiglietti, C.; Fisher, J.; Halverson, G. H.

    2017-12-01

    This study validates a method of remote sensing near-surface meteorology that vertically interpolates MODIS atmospheric profiles to surface pressure level. The extraction of air temperature and dew point observations at a two-meter reference height from 2001 to 2014 yields global moderate- to fine-resolution near-surface temperature distributions that are compared to geographically and temporally corresponding measurements from 114 ground meteorological stations distributed worldwide. This analysis is the first robust, large-scale validation of the MODIS-derived near-surface air temperature and dew point estimates, both of which serve as key inputs in models of energy, water, and carbon exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Results show strong linear correlations between remotely sensed and in-situ near-surface air temperature measurements (R2 = 0.89), as well as between dew point observations (R2 = 0.77). Performance is relatively uniform across climate zones. The extension of mean climate-wise percent errors to the entire remote sensing dataset allows for the determination of MODIS air temperature and dew point uncertainties on a global scale.

  2. Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.

    2009-01-01

    Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070

  3. A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wenhui; Li, Qingxiang; Jones, Phil; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Trewin, Blair; Yang, Su; Zhu, Chen; Zhai, Panmao; Wang, Jinfeng; Vincent, Lucie; Dai, Aiguo; Gao, Yun; Ding, Yihui

    2018-04-01

    A new dataset of integrated and homogenized monthly surface air temperature over global land for the period since 1900 [China Meteorological Administration global Land Surface Air Temperature (CMA-LSAT)] is developed. In total, 14 sources have been collected and integrated into the newly developed dataset, including three global (CRUTEM4, GHCN, and BEST), three regional and eight national sources. Duplicate stations are identified, and those with the higher priority are chosen or spliced. Then, a consistency test and a climate outlier test are conducted to ensure that each station series is quality controlled. Next, two steps are adopted to assure the homogeneity of the station series: (1) homogenized station series in existing national datasets (by National Meteorological Services) are directly integrated into the dataset without any changes (50% of all stations), and (2) the inhomogeneities are detected and adjusted for in the remaining data series using a penalized maximal t test (50% of all stations). Based on the dataset, we re-assess the temperature changes in global and regional areas compared with GHCN-V3 and CRUTEM4, as well as the temperature changes during the three periods of 1900-2014, 1979-2014 and 1998-2014. The best estimates of warming trends and there 95% confidence ranges for 1900-2014 are approximately 0.102 ± 0.006 °C/decade for the whole year, and 0.104 ± 0.009, 0.112 ± 0.007, 0.090 ± 0.006, and 0.092 ± 0.007 °C/decade for the DJF (December, January, February), MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, respectively. MAM saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2014 and 1979-2014. For an even shorter and more recent period (1998-2014), MAM, JJA and SON show similar warming trends, while DJF shows opposite trends. The results show that the ability of CMA-LAST for describing the global temperature changes is similar with other existing products, while there are some differences when describing regional temperature changes.

  4. New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

    2017-06-20

    The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

  5. Synchronous drought and flooding in southern Chinese Loess Plateau in phase with the variation of global temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, X.; Kang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Drought and flooding, usually occurring in the catchment scale, are the main natural threats to human livelihood due to the extreme variation of precipitation in spatiotemporal scales. Within the context of global warming, the risk of flood and drought tends to increase in different regions. Understanding the mechanism of the regional occurrence of flood and drought is of enormous importance for the predicting studies and taking corresponding measures. However, the instrumental records are too short to conduct a prediction. Here, we present a historical-archive-based high-resolution dataset of drought and flooding back to AD 1646 in the southern Chinese Loess Plateau. This sequence, integrated with the modern meteorological observation data, shows that the frequency of drought and flooding in the study region is synchronous on a decadal scale, and they are in phase with the increase in both global and regional temperature. During the warm period, the ENSO activity was found to be increase, resulting in the anomaly distribution of precipitation in different seasons in southern Chinese Loess Plateau, which is the reason for the temperature dependence of flooding and drought in this region. If global temperature continues to rise in the future, the risk of both drought and flooding in the study area would also increase.

  6. Effect of Temperature Rising on the Stygobitic Crustacean Species Diacyclops belgicus: Does Global Warming Affect Groundwater Populations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiziana Di Lorenzo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The average global temperature is predicted to increase by 3 °C by the end of this century due to human-induced climate change. The overall metabolism of the aquatic biota will be directly affected by rising temperatures and associated changes. Since thermal stability is a characteristic of groundwater ecosystems, global warming is expected to have a profound effect on the groundwater fauna. The prediction that stygobitic (obligate groundwater dweller species are vulnerable to climate change includes assumptions about metabolic effects that can only be tested by comparisons across a thermal gradient. To this end, we investigated the effects of two different thermal regimes on the metabolism of the stygobitic copepod species Diacyclops belgicus (Kiefer, 1936. We measured the individual-based oxygen consumption of this species as a proxy of possible metabolic reactions to temperature rising from 14 to 17 °C. We used a sealed glass microplate equipped with planar oxygen sensor spots with optical isolation glued onto the bottom of 80-μL wells integrated with a 24-channel fluorescence-based respirometry system. The tests have provided controversial results according to which the D. belgicus populations should be prudently considered at risk under a global warming scenario.

  7. Estimating the daily global solar radiation spatial distribution from diurnal temperature ranges over the Tibetan Plateau in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Tao; Wu, Shaohong; Dai, Erfu; Liu, Yujie

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Bristow–Campbell model was calibrated and validated over the Tibetan Plateau. ► Develop a simple method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation and get gridded information. ► The daily global solar radiation spatial distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was estimated. - Abstract: Daily global solar radiation is fundamental to most ecological and biophysical processes because it plays a key role in the local and global energy budget. However, gridded information about the spatial distribution of solar radiation is limited. This study aims to parameterise the Bristow–Campbell model for the daily global solar radiation estimation in the Tibetan Plateau and propose a method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation. Observed daily solar radiation and diurnal temperature data from eleven stations over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2010 were used to calibrate and validate the Bristow–Campbell radiation model. The extra-terrestrial radiation and clear sky atmospheric transmittance were calculated on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results show that the Bristow–Campbell model performs well after adjusting the parameters, the average Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r), Nash–Sutcliffe equation (NSE), ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), and root mean-square error (RMSE) of 11 stations are 0.85, 2.81 MJ m −2 day −1 , 0.3 and 0.77 respectively. Gridded maximum and minimum average temperature data were obtained using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and validated by the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) stations’ data. The spatial daily global solar radiation distribution pattern was estimated and analysed by combining the solar radiation model (Bristow–Campbell model) and meteorological interpolation model (PRISM). Based on the overall results, it can be concluded that a calibrated Bristow–Campbell performs well

  8. Extracting and Analyzing the Warming Trend in Global and Hemispheric Temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Perron, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    This article offers an updated and extended attribution analysis based on recently published versions of temperature and forcing datasets. It shows that both temperature and radiative forcing variables can be best represented as trend stationary processes with structural changes occurring in the

  9. Alpha-MSH decreases core and brain temperature during global cerebral ischemia in rats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spulber, S.; Moldovan, Mihai; Oprica, M.

    2005-01-01

    -vessel occlusion forebrain ischemia on core temperature (CT) and brain temperature (BT), respectively. After 10 min cerebral ischemia, BT was lower in alpha-MSH- than in saline-injected animals. After 10 min reperfusion, both CT and BT were lower than the corresponding pre-ischemic levels after injection of alpha...

  10. A model-data comparison of the Holocene global sea surface temperature evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohmann, G.; Pfeiffer, M.; Laepple, T.; Leduc, G.; Kim, J.-H.

    2013-01-01

    We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate

  11. Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

  12. Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilarski Michał

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

  13. Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andronova, N.; Schlesinger, M.

    2004-01-01

    During the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol the delegation of Brazil presented an approach for distributing the burden of emissions reductions among the Parties based on the effect of their cumulative historical emissions on the global-average near-surface temperature. The Letter to the Parties does not limit the emissions to be considered to be only greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thus, in this paper we explore the importance of anthropogenic SOx emissions that are converted to sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere, together with the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, in attributing historical temperature change. We use historical emissions and our simple climate model to estimate the relative contributions to global warming of the regional emissions by four Parties: OECD90, Africa and Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Our results show that for most Parties the large warming contributed by their GHG emissions is largely offset by the correspondingly large cooling by their SOx emissions. Thus, OECD90 has become the dominant contributor to recent global warming following its large reduction in SOx emissions after 1980

  14. Implementation of Coupled Skin Temperature Analysis and Bias Correction in a Global Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radakovich, Jon; Bosilovich, M.; Chern, Jiun-dar; daSilva, Arlindo

    2004-01-01

    The NASA/NCAR Finite Volume GCM (fvGCM) with the NCAR CLM (Community Land Model) version 2.0 was integrated into the NASA/GMAO Finite Volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS). A new method was developed for coupled skin temperature assimilation and bias correction where the analysis increment and bias correction term is passed into the CLM2 and considered a forcing term in the solution to the energy balance. For our purposes, the fvDAS CLM2 was run at 1 deg. x 1.25 deg. horizontal resolution with 55 vertical levels. We assimilate the ISCCP-DX (30 km resolution) surface temperature product. The atmospheric analysis was performed 6-hourly, while the skin temperature analysis was performed 3-hourly. The bias correction term, which was updated at the analysis times, was added to the skin temperature tendency equation at every timestep. In this presentation, we focus on the validation of the surface energy budget at the in situ reference sites for the Coordinated Enhanced Observation Period (CEOP). We will concentrate on sites that include independent skin temperature measurements and complete energy budget observations for the month of July 2001. In addition, MODIS skin temperature will be used for validation. Several assimilations were conducted and preliminary results will be presented.

  15. THE TEMPERATURE EFFECT IN SECONDARY COSMIC RAYS (MUONS) OBSERVED AT THE GROUND: ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL MUON DETECTOR NETWORK DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Mendonça, R. R. S.; Braga, C. R.; Echer, E.; Dal Lago, A.; Rockenbach, M.; Schuch, N. J. [Space Geophysics Division, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, 12227-010 (Brazil); Munakata, K.; Kato, C. [Physics Department, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Nagano, 390-8621 (Japan); Kuwabara, T. [Graduate School of Science, Chiba University, Chiba City, Chiba 263-8522 (Japan); Kozai, M. [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (ISAS/JAXA), Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Al Jassar, H. K.; Sharma, M. M. [Physics Department, Kuwait University, Kuwait City, 13060 (Kuwait); Tokumaru, M. [Solar Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi, 464-8601 (Japan); Duldig, M. L.; Humble, J. E. [School of Physical Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001 (Australia); Evenson, P. [Bartol Research Institute, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716 (United States); Sabbah, I. [Department of Natural Sciences, College of Health Sciences, Public Authority for Applied Education and Training, Kuwait City, 72853 (Kuwait)

    2016-10-20

    The analysis of cosmic ray intensity variation seen by muon detectors at Earth's surface can help us to understand astrophysical, solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic phenomena. However, before comparing cosmic ray intensity variations with extraterrestrial phenomena, it is necessary to take into account atmospheric effects such as the temperature effect. In this work, we analyzed this effect on the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), which is composed of four ground-based detectors, two in the northern hemisphere and two in the southern hemisphere. In general, we found a higher temperature influence on detectors located in the northern hemisphere. Besides that, we noticed that the seasonal temperature variation observed at the ground and at the altitude of maximum muon production are in antiphase for all GMDN locations (low-latitude regions). In this way, contrary to what is expected in high-latitude regions, the ground muon intensity decrease occurring during summertime would be related to both parts of the temperature effect (the negative and the positive). We analyzed several methods to describe the temperature effect on cosmic ray intensity. We found that the mass weighted method is the one that best reproduces the seasonal cosmic ray variation observed by the GMDN detectors and allows the highest correlation with long-term variation of the cosmic ray intensity seen by neutron monitors.

  16. THE TEMPERATURE EFFECT IN SECONDARY COSMIC RAYS (MUONS) OBSERVED AT THE GROUND: ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL MUON DETECTOR NETWORK DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Mendonça, R. R. S.; Braga, C. R.; Echer, E.; Dal Lago, A.; Rockenbach, M.; Schuch, N. J.; Munakata, K.; Kato, C.; Kuwabara, T.; Kozai, M.; Al Jassar, H. K.; Sharma, M. M.; Tokumaru, M.; Duldig, M. L.; Humble, J. E.; Evenson, P.; Sabbah, I.

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of cosmic ray intensity variation seen by muon detectors at Earth's surface can help us to understand astrophysical, solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic phenomena. However, before comparing cosmic ray intensity variations with extraterrestrial phenomena, it is necessary to take into account atmospheric effects such as the temperature effect. In this work, we analyzed this effect on the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), which is composed of four ground-based detectors, two in the northern hemisphere and two in the southern hemisphere. In general, we found a higher temperature influence on detectors located in the northern hemisphere. Besides that, we noticed that the seasonal temperature variation observed at the ground and at the altitude of maximum muon production are in antiphase for all GMDN locations (low-latitude regions). In this way, contrary to what is expected in high-latitude regions, the ground muon intensity decrease occurring during summertime would be related to both parts of the temperature effect (the negative and the positive). We analyzed several methods to describe the temperature effect on cosmic ray intensity. We found that the mass weighted method is the one that best reproduces the seasonal cosmic ray variation observed by the GMDN detectors and allows the highest correlation with long-term variation of the cosmic ray intensity seen by neutron monitors.

  17. Temperature Effect in Secondary Cosmic Rays (MUONS) Observed at the Ground: Analysis of the Global MUON Detector Network Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Mendonça, R. R. S.; Braga, C. R.; Echer, E.; Dal Lago, A.; Munakata, K.; Kuwabara, T.; Kozai, M.; Kato, C.; Rockenbach, M.; Schuch, N. J.; Jassar, H. K. Al; Sharma, M. M.; Tokumaru, M.; Duldig, M. L.; Humble, J. E.; Evenson, P.; Sabbah, I.

    2016-10-01

    The analysis of cosmic ray intensity variation seen by muon detectors at Earth's surface can help us to understand astrophysical, solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic phenomena. However, before comparing cosmic ray intensity variations with extraterrestrial phenomena, it is necessary to take into account atmospheric effects such as the temperature effect. In this work, we analyzed this effect on the Global Muon Detector Network (GMDN), which is composed of four ground-based detectors, two in the northern hemisphere and two in the southern hemisphere. In general, we found a higher temperature influence on detectors located in the northern hemisphere. Besides that, we noticed that the seasonal temperature variation observed at the ground and at the altitude of maximum muon production are in antiphase for all GMDN locations (low-latitude regions). In this way, contrary to what is expected in high-latitude regions, the ground muon intensity decrease occurring during summertime would be related to both parts of the temperature effect (the negative and the positive). We analyzed several methods to describe the temperature effect on cosmic ray intensity. We found that the mass weighted method is the one that best reproduces the seasonal cosmic ray variation observed by the GMDN detectors and allows the highest correlation with long-term variation of the cosmic ray intensity seen by neutron monitors.

  18. Soil Temperature Manipulation to Study Global Warming Effects in Arable Land

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, R H; Laegdsmand, M; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2013-01-01

    in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005℃ between heated and control......-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....

  19. Soil temperature manipulation to study global warming effects in arable land

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, Raveendra H.; Laegdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2013-01-01

    in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005 oC between heated...... that of above-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....

  20. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, Ethan D.; Horton, Radley M.; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2018-01-01

    As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

  1. Global IP6K1 deletion enhances temperature modulated energy expenditure which reduces carbohydrate and fat induced weight gain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingzhang Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: IP6 kinases (IP6Ks regulate cell metabolism and survival. Mice with global (IP6K1-KO or adipocyte-specific (AdKO deletion of IP6K1 are protected from diet induced obesity (DIO at ambient (23 °C temperature. AdKO mice are lean primarily due to increased AMPK mediated thermogenic energy expenditure (EE. Thus, at thermoneutral (30 °C temperature, high fat diet (HFD-fed AdKO mice expend energy and gain body weight, similar to control mice. IP6K1 is ubiquitously expressed; thus, it is critical to determine to what extent the lean phenotype of global IP6K1-KO mice depends on environmental temperature. Furthermore, it is not known whether IP6K1 regulates AMPK mediated EE in cells, which do not express UCP1. Methods: Q-NMR, GTT, food intake, EE, QRT-PCR, histology, mitochondrial oxygen consumption rate (OCR, fatty acid metabolism assays, and immunoblot studies were conducted in IP6K1-KO and WT mice or cells. Results: Global IP6K1 deletion mediated enhancement in EE is impaired albeit not abolished at 30 °C. As a result, IP6K1-KO mice are protected from DIO, insulin resistance, and fatty liver even at 30 °C. Like AdKO, IP6K1-KO mice display enhanced adipose tissue browning. However, unlike AdKO mice, thermoneutrality only partly abolishes browning in IP6K1-KO mice. Cold (5 °C exposure enhances carbohydrate expenditure, whereas 23 °C and 30 °C promote fat oxidation in HFD-KO mice. Furthermore, IP6K1 deletion diminishes cellular fat accumulation via activation of the AMPK signaling pathway. Conclusions: Global deletion of IP6K1 ameliorates obesity and insulin resistance irrespective of the environmental temperature conditions, which strengthens its validity as an anti-obesity target. Keywords: IP6K, Obesity, Diabetes, Energy expenditure, β-oxidation

  2. A new global grid model for the determination of atmospheric weighted mean temperature in GPS precipitable water vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Liangke; Jiang, Weiping; Liu, Lilong; Chen, Hua; Ye, Shirong

    2018-05-01

    In ground-based global positioning system (GPS) meteorology, atmospheric weighted mean temperature, T_m , plays a very important role in the progress of retrieving precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the zenith wet delay of the GPS. Generally, most of the existing T_m models only take either latitude or altitude into account in modeling. However, a great number of studies have shown that T_m is highly correlated with both latitude and altitude. In this study, a new global grid empirical T_m model, named as GGTm, was established by a sliding window algorithm using global gridded T_m data over an 8-year period from 2007 to 2014 provided by TU Vienna, where both latitude and altitude variations are considered in modeling. And the performance of GGTm was assessed by comparing with the Bevis formula and the GPT2w model, where the high-precision global gridded T_m data as provided by TU Vienna and the radiosonde data from 2015 are used as reference values. The results show the significant performance of the new GGTm model against other models when compared with gridded T_m data and radiosonde data, especially in the areas with great undulating terrain. Additionally, GGTm has the global mean RMS_{PWV} and RMS_{PWV} /PWV values of 0.26 mm and 1.28%, respectively. The GGTm model, fed only by the day of the year and the station coordinates, could provide a reliable and accurate T_m value, which shows the possible potential application in real-time GPS meteorology, especially for the application of low-latitude areas and western China.

  3. Response of temperature and density profiles to heat deposition profile and its impact on global scaling in LHD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, H.; Murakami, S.; Yamazaki, K.

    2002-01-01

    Energy confinement and heat transport of net current-free NBI-heated plasmas in the Large Helical Device (LHD) are discussed with an emphasis on density dependence. Although the apparent density dependence of the energy confinement time has been demonstrated in a wide parameter range in LHD, the loss of this dependence has been observed in the high density regime under the specific condition. Broad heat deposition due to off-axis alignment and shallow penetration of neutral beams degrades the global energy confinement while the local heat transport maintains a clear temperature dependence lying between Bohm and gyro-Bohm characteristics. The central heat deposition inclines towards an intrinsic density dependence like τ E ∝(n-bar e /P) 0.6 from the saturated state. The broadening of the temperature profile due to the broad heat deposition profile contrasts with the invariant property which has observed widely as profile consistency and stiffness in tokamak experiments. (author)

  4. Response of temperature and density profiles to heat deposition profile and its impact on global scaling in LHD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, H.; Murakami, S.; Yamazaki, K.

    2003-01-01

    Energy confinement and heat transport of net current-free NBI-heated plasmas in the Large Helical Device (LHD) are discussed with an emphasis on density dependence. Although the apparent density dependence of the energy confinement time has been demonstrated in a wide parameter range in LHD, the loss of this dependence has been observed in the high density regime under the specific condition. Broad heat deposition due to off-axis alignment and shallow penetration of neutral beams degrades the global energy confinement while the local heat transport maintains a clear temperature dependence lying between Bohm and gyro-Bohm characteristics. The central heat deposition inclines towards an intrinsic density dependence like τ E ∝(n-bars e /P) 0.6 from the saturated state. The broadening of the temperature profile due to the broad heat deposition profile contrasts with the invariant property which has observed widely as profile consistency and stiffness in tokamak experiments. (author)

  5. Isolating the Roles of Different Forcing Agents in Global Stratospheric Temperature Changes Using Model Integrations with Incrementally Added Single Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquila, V.; Swartz, W. H.; Waugh, D. W.; Colarco, P. R.; Pawson, S.; Polvani, L. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2016-01-01

    Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid-1990s is due to the decrease in ozone-depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely

  6. GHRSST Level 3P Global Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-A satellite (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Level 3 Group for HIgh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) dataset from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-A platform...

  7. GHRSST Level 2P 1 m Depth Global Sea Surface Temperature from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on retrievals from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)....

  8. Growth and physiological responses of canola (Brassica napus) to three components of global climate change: temperature, carbon dioxide and drought

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qaderi, M.M.; Kurepin, L.V.; Reid, D.M. [Univ. of Calgary, Dept. of Biological Sciences, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2006-12-15

    Elevated CO{sub 2} appears to be a significant factor in global warming, which will likely lead to drought conditions in many areas. Few studies have considered the interactive effects of higher CO{sub 2}, temperature and drought on plant growth and physiology. We grew canola (Brassica napus cv. 45H72) plants under lower (22/18 deg. C) and higher (28/24 deg. C) temperature regimes in controlled-environment chambers at ambient (370 {mu}mol mol-1) and elevated (740 {mu}mol mol-1) CO{sub 2} levels. One half of the plants were watered to field capacity and the other half at wilting point. In three separate experiments, we determined growth, various physiological parameters and content of abscisic acid (ABA), indole-3-acetic acid and ethylene. Drought-stressed plants grown under higher temperature at ambient CO{sub 2} had decreased stem height and diameter, leaf number and area, dry matter, leaf area ratio, shoot/root weight ratio, net CO{sub 2} assimilation and chlorophyll fluorescence. However, these plants had increased specific leaf weight, leaf weight ratio and chlorophyll concentration. Elevated CO{sub 2} generally had the opposite effect. and partially reversed the inhibitory effects of higher temperature and drought on leaf dry weight accumulation. This study showed that higher temperature and drought inhibit many processes but elevated CO{sub 2} partially mitigate some adverse effects. As expected, drought stress increased ABA but higher temperature inhibited the ability of plants to produce ABA in response to drought. (au)

  9. Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nusslé, Sébastien; Matthews, Kathleen R.; Carlson, Stephanie M.

    2015-01-01

    Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout Wilderness, California, we measured riparian vegetation and monitored water temperature in three meadow streams between 2008 and 2013, including two “resting” meadows and one meadow that is partially grazed. All three meadows have been subject to grazing by cattle and sheep since the 1800s and their streams are home to the imperiled California golden trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita). In 1991, a livestock exclosure was constructed in one of the meadows (Mulkey), leaving a portion of stream ungrazed to minimize the negative effects of cattle. In 2001, cattle were removed completely from two other meadows (Big Whitney and Ramshaw), which have been in a “resting” state since that time. Inside the livestock exclosure in Mulkey, we found that riverbank vegetation was both larger and denser than outside the exclosure where cattle were present, resulting in more shaded waters and cooler maximal temperatures inside the exclosure. In addition, between meadows comparisons showed that water temperatures were cooler in the ungrazed meadows compared to the grazed area in the partially grazed meadow. Finally, we found that predicted temperatures under different global warming scenarios were likely to be higher in presence of livestock grazing. Our results highlight that land use can interact with climate change to worsen the local thermal conditions for taxa on the edge and that protecting riparian vegetation is likely to increase the resiliency of these ecosystems to climate change. PMID:26565706

  10. Ion temperature in the outer ionosphere - first version of a global empirical model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Třísková, Ludmila; Truhlík, Vladimír; Šmilauer, Jan; Smirnova, N. F.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 9 (2004), s. 1998-2003 ISSN 0273-1177 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP205/02/P037; GA AV ČR IAA3042201; GA MŠk ME 651 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : plasma temperatures * topside ionosphere * empirical models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.548, year: 2004

  11. THE ASSISTANCE TO DEVELOP GLOBAL BRANCH OF LOW-TEMPERATURE INDUSTRIAL GASES

    OpenAIRE

    Лавренченко, Г. К.

    2014-01-01

    The Ukrainian Association of industrial gases manufacturers «UA-SIGMA» will be ten years in this year. The Association currently includes 33 companies from Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan. The main purpose of the Association — to develop scientific and technical recommendations to improve systems of air separation plants for the production of various low-temperature industrial gases, to ensure their safe and efficient operation. The Association provides training and skills development of cryog...

  12. Backfitting in Smoothing Spline Anova, with Application to Historical Global Temperature Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhen

    In the attempt to estimate the temperature history of the earth using the surface observations, various biases can exist. An important source of bias is the incompleteness of sampling over both time and space. There have been a few methods proposed to deal with this problem. Although they can correct some biases resulting from incomplete sampling, they have ignored some other significant biases. In this dissertation, a smoothing spline ANOVA approach which is a multivariate function estimation method is proposed to deal simultaneously with various biases resulting from incomplete sampling. Besides that, an advantage of this method is that we can get various components of the estimated temperature history with a limited amount of information stored. This method can also be used for detecting erroneous observations in the data base. The method is illustrated through an example of modeling winter surface air temperature as a function of year and location. Extension to more complicated models are discussed. The linear system associated with the smoothing spline ANOVA estimates is too large to be solved by full matrix decomposition methods. A computational procedure combining the backfitting (Gauss-Seidel) algorithm and the iterative imputation algorithm is proposed. This procedure takes advantage of the tensor product structure in the data to make the computation feasible in an environment of limited memory. Various related issues are discussed, e.g., the computation of confidence intervals and the techniques to speed up the convergence of the backfitting algorithm such as collapsing and successive over-relaxation.

  13. The multifractal structure of satellite sea surface temperature maps can be used to obtain global maps of streamlines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Turiel

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays Earth observation satellites provide information about many relevant variables of the ocean-climate system, such as temperature, moisture, aerosols, etc. However, to retrieve the velocity field, which is the most relevant dynamical variable, is still a technological challenge, specially in the case of oceans. New processing techniques, emerged from the theory of turbulent flows, have come to assist us in this task. In this paper, we show that multifractal techniques applied to new Sea Surface Temperature satellite products opens the way to build maps of ocean currents with unprecedented accuracy. With the application of singularity analysis, we show that global ocean circulation patterns can be retrieved in a daily basis. We compare these results with high-quality altimetry-derived geostrophic velocities, finding a quite good correspondence of the observed patterns both qualitatively and quantitatively; and this is done for the first time on a global basis, even for less active areas. The implications of this findings from the perspective both of theory and of operational applications are discussed.

  14. Response of temperature and density profiles to heat deposition profile and its impact on global scaling in LHD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, H.

    2002-01-01

    Significant density dependence of the energy confinement time as described in the ISS95 scaling has been demonstrated in the extended parameter regimes in LHD. However, recent experiments have indicated that this density dependence is lost at a certain density under specific conditions. This paper discusses the cause of this saturation and related characteristics of anomalous transport. The saturation of the energy confinement time is observed in the density ramp-up phase of NBI heated plasmas. In contrast to the global energy confinement time, the local heat conduction coefficient still indicates the temperature dependence which is a companion to the density dependence of the energy confinement time. The apparent contradiction between the global confinement and the local transport can be attributed to the change of the heat deposition profile. Through this study, the response of temperature and density profiles to the heat deposition profile is highlighted, which is contrasted to the concept of stiffness or profile consistency observed in tokamaks. The major anomalous transport models based on ITG/TEM and interchange/ballooning modes are assessed. (author)

  15. Parameter extraction using global particle swarm optimization approach and the influence of polymer processing temperature on the solar cell parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Singh, A.; Dhar, A.

    2017-08-01

    The accurate estimation of the photovoltaic parameters is fundamental to gain an insight of the physical processes occurring inside a photovoltaic device and thereby to optimize its design, fabrication processes, and quality. A simulative approach of accurately determining the device parameters is crucial for cell array and module simulation when applied in practical on-field applications. In this work, we have developed a global particle swarm optimization (GPSO) approach to estimate the different solar cell parameters viz., ideality factor (η), short circuit current (Isc), open circuit voltage (Voc), shunt resistant (Rsh), and series resistance (Rs) with wide a search range of over ±100 % for each model parameter. After validating the accurateness and global search power of the proposed approach with synthetic and noisy data, we applied the technique to the extract the PV parameters of ZnO/PCDTBT based hybrid solar cells (HSCs) prepared under different annealing conditions. Further, we examine the variation of extracted model parameters to unveil the physical processes occurring when different annealing temperatures are employed during the device fabrication and establish the role of improved charge transport in polymer films from independent FET measurements. The evolution of surface morphology, optical absorption, and chemical compositional behaviour of PCDTBT co-polymer films as a function of processing temperature has also been captured in the study and correlated with the findings from the PV parameters extracted using GPSO approach.

  16. Quantifying the temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on global-mean precipitation in a multi-model ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferraro, Angus J; Griffiths, Hannah G

    2016-01-01

    The reduction in global-mean precipitation when stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is used to counterbalance global warming from increasing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations has been mainly attributed to the temperature-independent effect of CO 2 on atmospheric radiative cooling. We demonstrate here that stratospheric sulphate aerosol itself also acts to reduce global-mean precipitation independent of its effects on temperature. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoenginering on global-mean precipitation is calculated by removing temperature-dependent effects from climate model simulations of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). When sulphate aerosol is injected into the stratosphere at a rate of 5 Tg SO 2 per year the aerosol reduces global-mean precipitation by approximately 0.2 %, though multiple ensemble members are required to separate this effect from internal variability. For comparison, the precipitation reduction from the temperature-independent effect of increasing CO 2 concentrations under the RCP4.5 scenario of the future is approximately 0.5 %. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric sulphate aerosol arises from the aerosol’s effect on tropospheric radiative cooling. Radiative transfer calculations show this is mainly due to increasing downward emission of infrared radiation by the aerosol, but there is also a contribution from the stratospheric warming the aerosol causes. Our results suggest climate model simulations of solar dimming can capture the main features of the global-mean precipitation response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. (letter)

  17. NEWLY DISCOVERED GLOBAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURES IN THE QUIET SUN AT SOLAR MINIMUM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang Zhenguang; Frazin, Richard A.; Landi, Enrico; Manchester, Ward B.; Gombosi, Tamas I. [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Vasquez, Alberto M. [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio, CONICET-University of Buenos Aires, Ciudad de Buenos Aires, CC 67-Suc 28 (Argentina)

    2012-08-20

    Magnetic loops are building blocks of the closed-field corona. While active region loops are readily seen in images taken at EUV and X-ray wavelengths, quiet-Sun (QS) loops are seldom identifiable and are therefore difficult to study on an individual basis. The first analysis of solar minimum (Carrington Rotation 2077) QS coronal loops utilizing a novel technique called the Michigan Loop Diagnostic Technique (MLDT) is presented. This technique combines Differential Emission Measure Tomography and a potential field source surface (PFSS) model, and consists of tracing PFSS field lines through the tomographic grid on which the local differential emission measure is determined. As a result, the electron temperature T{sub e} and density N{sub e} at each point along each individual field line can be obtained. Using data from STEREO/EUVI and SOHO/MDI, the MLDT identifies two types of QS loops in the corona: so-called up loops in which the temperature increases with height and so-called down loops in which the temperature decreases with height. Up loops are expected, however, down loops are a surprise, and furthermore, they are ubiquitous in the low-latitude corona. Up loops dominate the QS at higher latitudes. The MLDT allows independent determination of the empirical pressure and density scale heights, and the differences between the two remain to be explained. The down loops appear to be a newly discovered property of the solar minimum corona that may shed light on the physics of coronal heating. The results are shown to be robust to the calibration uncertainties of the EUVI instrument.

  18. Limited tolerance by insects to high temperatures across tropical elevational gradients and the implications of global warming for extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Robledo, Carlos; Kuprewicz, Erin K; Staines, Charles L; Erwin, Terry L; Kress, W John

    2016-01-19

    The critical thermal maximum (CTmax), the temperature at which motor control is lost in animals, has the potential to determine if species will tolerate global warming. For insects, tolerance to high temperatures decreases with latitude, suggesting that similar patterns may exist along elevational gradients as well. This study explored how CTmax varies among species and populations of a group of diverse tropical insect herbivores, the rolled-leaf beetles, across both broad and narrow elevational gradients. Data from 6,948 field observations and 8,700 museum specimens were used to map the elevational distributions of rolled-leaf beetles on two mountains in Costa Rica. CTmax was determined for 1,252 individual beetles representing all populations across the gradients. Initial morphological identifications suggested a total of 26 species with populations at different elevations displaying contrasting upper thermal limits. However, compared with morphological identifications, DNA barcodes (cytochrome oxidase I) revealed significant cryptic species diversity. DNA barcodes identified 42 species and haplotypes across 11 species complexes. These 42 species displayed much narrower elevational distributions and values of CTmax than the 26 morphologically defined species. In general, species found at middle elevations and on mountaintops are less tolerant to high temperatures than species restricted to lowland habitats. Species with broad elevational distributions display high CTmax throughout their ranges. We found no significant phylogenetic signal in CTmax, geography, or elevational range. The narrow variance in CTmax values for most rolled-leaf beetles, especially high-elevation species, suggests that the risk of extinction of insects may be substantial under some projected rates of global warming.

  19. Attached and planktonic Listeria monocytogenes global proteomic responses and associated influence of strain genetics and temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, Marcia M; da Silva, Wladimir P; Wilson, Richard; Lowe, Edwin; Bowman, John P

    2015-02-06

    Contamination of industrial and domestic food usage environments by the attachement of bacterial food-borne pathogen Listeria monocytogenes has public health and economic implications. Comprehensive proteomics experiments using label-free liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry were used to compare the proteomes of two different L. monocytogenes strains (Siliken_1/2c and F2365_4b), which show very different capacities to attach to surfaces. Growth temperature and strain type were highly influential on the proteomes in both attached and planktonic cells. On the basis of the proteomic data, it is highly unlikely that specific surface proteins play a direct role in adherence to inanimate surfaces. Instead, strain-dependent responses related to cell envelope polymer biosynthesis and stress response regulation likely contribute to a different ability to attach and also to survive external stressors. Collectively, the divergent proteome-level responses observed define strain- and growth-temperature-dependent differences relevant to attachment efficacy, highlight relevant proteins involved in stress protection in attached cells, and suggest that strain differences and growth conditions are important in relation to environmental persistence.

  20. Assessing the transferability of support vector machine model for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ji-Long; Li, Guo-Sheng; Xiao, Bei-Bei; Wen, Zhao-Fei; Lv, Ming-Quan; Chen, Chun-Di; Jiang, Yi; Wang, Xiao-Xiao; Wu, Sheng-Jun

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Transferability of SVM in estimation of solar radiation is investigated. • Radiation at estimation site could be well estimated by SVM developed at source site. • A strategy for selecting a suitable source site is presented. • SVM accuracy is affected by distance and temperature difference between two sites. • RMSE of SVM shows logarithm or linearly relationship with altitude of source site. - Abstract: Exploring novel methods for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature has been being a focus in many studies. This paper evaluates the transferability of support vector machines (SVM) for estimation of solar radiation in subtropical zone in China. Results suggest that solar radiation at one site (estimation site) could be well estimated by SVM model developed at another site (source site). The accuracy of estimation is affected by the distance and temperature difference between two sites, and altitude of source site. Higher correlations between RMSE of SVM and distance, and temperature differences are observed in northeastern region, increasing the reliability and confidence of SVM model developed at nearby stations. While lower correlations between RMSE and distance, and temperature differences are observed in southwest plateau region. When the altitude of estimation site is lower than 1200 m, RMSE show logarithm relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are lower than that of estimation site. Otherwise, RMSE show linearly relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are higher than 200 m but lower than that of the estimation site. This result suggests that solar radiation could be also estimated using SVM model developed at the site with similar but lower altitude. Based on these results, a strategy that takes into account the climatic conditions, topography, distance, and altitude for selecting a suitable source site is presented. The findings can guide and ease the appropriate choice of

  1. Does the correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures rule out any significant global warming from greenhouse gases?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

    1998-01-01

    Since the discovery of a striking correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse...... gases. The present analysis shows that a similar degree of correlation is obtained when testing the solar data against a couple of fictitious temperature series representing different global warming trends. Therefore, the correlation cannot be used to estimate the magnitude of a possible contribution...... to global warming from human activities, nor to rule out a sizable contribution from that source....

  2. The ratio of land to ocean temperature change under global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, c/o University of Victoria, PO Box 1700, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2011-12-15

    The result in climate simulations, supported in the observation-based record, is that the ratio {phi}= T{sub L}/T{sub O} of land-average to ocean-average temperature change is greater than one and varies comparatively modestly as climate changes. This is investigated in results from the CMIP3 data archive of climate change simulations following the B1 and more strongly forced A1B scenarios as well as in 2 x CO{sub 2} integrations. The associated precipitation ratio {psi}=P{sub L}/P{sub O} is also considered briefly. The behaviour of {phi} is analyzed in terms of a forcing-response view of the energy balance over land and ocean regions. The analysis indicates that the value of {phi}> 1 is not maintained by separate local balances over land and ocean but by an energetic balance that also involves a change in transport between the regions. The transport change does not restrain the land warming by exporting energy to the ocean region but, rather, the reverse. The anomalous transport is from the ocean to the land region even though the ocean warms less than the land does. Feedbacks in the ocean region, especially in the equatorial Pacific, do not sufficiently counteract the forcing and the result is an excess of energy that is transported to the land. The land warms in order to radiate away both the energy from the forcing over land but also the extra energy imported from the ocean region, thereby maintaining {phi} > 1. This situation can be understood to parallel the SST-forced case in model studies where {phi} > 1 despite the forcing being confined to the ocean area. The climate system is effective in redistributing forcing so that it is the local feedbacks, rather than the pattern of the forcing, that determine the temperature response. Land and ocean averaged quantities and budgets behave in a consistent manner to provide a simplified representation of the changes in temperature and energetic processes that are occurring. The geographical distributions of the terms

  3. Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B; Baulch, Helen M; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C; Rusak, James A; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R Iestyn

    2017-03-06

    Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (T w -T a ) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (Q H ). If Q H is directed upward, corresponding to positive T w -T a , it can enhance CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative T w -T a across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward Q H ), with T w -T a becoming increasingly negative with increasing T a . Further examination of T w -T a using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that T w -T a is linearly related to T a . Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative T w -T a with increasing annual mean T a since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative T w -T a , thereby reducing CO 2 and CH 4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.

  4. A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

    2015-01-21

    There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Global climate change and tree nutrition : effects of elevated CO2 and temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukac, M.; Calfapietra, C.; Lagomarsino, A.; Loreto, F.

    2010-01-01

    The availability of nutrients for plant uptake can limit the productivity and survival of forest ecosystems. Information about multiple interacting factors regarding the availability of essential nutrients and their roles in plant metabolism is needed in order to understand the full impact of climate change. This paper presented the known effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and temperature on tree nutrition, with particular reference to the mobilization and immobilization processes instead of pools. Existing gaps in knowledge were identified and future research priorities were suggested. This review focused on the major nutrients, notably nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) and how the processes that alter their cycling and availability are influenced by the effects of climate change. 143 refs., 3 figs.

  6. Effects of Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Changes on the Global Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, K.; Liu, J.

    2017-12-01

    The roles of regional sea surface temperature (SST) variability on modulating the climate system and consequently the air quality are investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform SST anomalies of +/- 1 °C are superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian Oceans individually. Ignoring the response of natural emissions, our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability of surface O3 and PM2.5 concentrations in response to SST anomalies, especially during boreal summers. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv while increases the anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations from 0.5 to 3 µg m-3. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing air pollutant perturbations in most cases. During boreal summers, the increase in tropical SST over different ocean basins enhances deep convection, which significantly increases the air temperature over the upper troposphere and trigger large-scale subsidence over nearby and remote regions. These processes tend to increase tropospheric stability and suppress rainfall at lower mid-latitudes. Consequently, it reduces the vertical transport of O3 to the surface while facilitating the accumulation of PM2.5 concentrations over most regions. In addition, this regional SST warming may also considerably suppress intercontinental transport of air pollution as confirmed with idealized CO-like tracers. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST variability and regional air quality, which can help local air quality management.

  7. A Time Series of Mean Global Sea Surface Temperature from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veal, Karen L.; Corlett, Gary; Remedios, John; Llewellyn-Jones, David

    2010-12-01

    A climate data set requires a long time series of consistently processed data with suitably long periods of overlap of different instruments which allows characterization of any inter-instrument biases. The data obtained from ESA's three Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) together comprise an 18 year record of SST with overlap periods of at least 6 months. The data from all three ATSRs has been consistently processed. These factors together with the stability of the instruments and the precision of the derived SST makes this data set eminently suitable for the construction of a time series of SST that complies with many of the GCOS requirements for a climate data set. A time series of global and regional average SST anomalies has been constructed from the ATSR version 2 data set. An analysis of the overlap periods of successive instruments was used to remove intra-series biases and align the series to a common reference. An ATSR climatology has been developed and has been used to calculate the SST anomalies. The ATSR-1 time series and the AATSR time series have been aligned to ATSR-2. The largest adjustment is ~0.2 K between ATSR-2 and AATSR which is suspected to be due to a shift of the 12 μm filter function for AATSR. An uncertainty of 0.06 K is assigned to the relative anomaly record that is derived from the dual three-channel night-time data. A relative uncertainty of 0.07 K is assigned to the dual night-time two-channel record, except in the ATSR-1 period (1994-1996) where it is larger.

  8. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...

  9. Global coral disease prevalence associated with sea temperature anomalies and local factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Moreno, Diego; Willis, Bette L; Page, A Cathie; Weil, Ernesto; Cróquer, Aldo; Vargas-Angel, Bernardo; Jordan-Garza, Adán Guillermo; Jordán-Dahlgren, Eric; Raymundo, Laurie; Harvell, C Drew

    2012-09-12

    Coral diseases are taking an increasing toll on coral reef structure and biodiversity and are important indicators of declining health in the oceans. We implemented standardized coral disease surveys to pinpoint hotspots of coral disease, reveal vulnerable coral families and test hypotheses about climate drivers from 39 locations worldwide. We analyzed a 3 yr study of coral disease prevalence to identify links between disease and a range of covariates, including thermal anomalies (from satellite data), location and coral cover, using a Generalized Linear Mixed Model. Prevalence of unhealthy corals, i.e. those with signs of known diseases or with other signs of compromised health, exceeded 10% on many reefs and ranged to over 50% on some. Disease prevalence exceeded 10% on 20% of Caribbean reefs and 2.7% of Pacific reefs surveyed. Within the same coral families across oceans, prevalence of unhealthy colonies was higher and some diseases were more common at sites in the Caribbean than those in the Pacific. The effects of high disease prevalence are potentially extensive given that the most affected coral families, the acroporids, faviids and siderastreids, are among the major reef-builders at these sites. The poritids and agaricids stood out in the Caribbean as being the most resistant to disease, even though these families were abundant in our surveys. Regional warm temperature anomalies were strongly correlated with high disease prevalence. The levels of disease reported here will provide a much-needed local reference point against which to compare future change.

  10. Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

    2018-01-01

    A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

  11. An Evaluation of C1-C3 Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) Metrics: Lifetimes, Ozone Depletion Potentials, Radiative Efficiencies, Global Warming and Global Temperature Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkholder, J. B.; Papanastasiou, D. K.; Marshall, P.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) have been used as chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) substitutes in a number of applications, e.g. refrigerator and air-conditioning systems. Although HCFCs have lower ozone-depletion potentials (ODPs) compared to CFCs, they are potent greenhouse gases. The twenty-eighth meeting of the parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Kigali, 2016) included a list of 274 HCFCs to be controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, from this list, only 15 of the HCFCs have values for their atmospheric lifetime, ODP, global warming potential (GWP), and global temperature potential (GTP) that are based on fundamental experimental studies, while 48 are registered compounds. In this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the atmospheric lifetimes, ODPs, radiative efficiencies (REs), GWPs, and GTPs for all 274 HCFCs to be included in the Montreal Protocol. Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated based on HCFC reactivity with OH radicals and O(1D), as well as their removal by UV photolysis using structure activity relationships and reactivity trends. ODP values are based on the semi-empirical approach described in the WMO/UNEP ozone assessment. Radiative efficiencies were estimated, based on infrared spectra calculated using theoretical electronic structure methods (Gaussian 09). GWPs and GTPs were calculated relative to CO2 using our estimated atmospheric lifetimes and REs. The details of the methodology will be discussed as well as the associated uncertainties. This study has provided a consistent set of atmospheric metrics for a wide range of HCFCs that support future policy decisions. More accurate metrics for a specific HCFC, if desired, would require fundamental laboratory studies to better define the OH reactivity and infrared absorption spectrum of the compound of interest. Overall, HCFCs within the same family (isomers) show a large ODP, GWP, GTP dependence on the molecular geometry of the isomers. The

  12. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  13. Potential for reducing air-pollutants while achieving 2 °C global temperature change limit target.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Akashi, Osamu; Fujiwara, Kazuya; Motoki, Yuko; Hibino, Go

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes the potential to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 °C global temperature change limit target above pre-industrial levels, by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse[Global]. This study focuses on; 1) estimating mitigation potentials and costs for achieving 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C target scenarios, 2) assessing co-benefits of reducing air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, BC, PM, and 3) analyzing features of sectoral attributions in Annex I and Non-Annex I groups of countries. The carbon tax scenario at 50 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 can reduce GHG emissions more than the 3 °C target scenario, but a higher carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 is required to achieve the 2 °C target scenario. However, there is also a co-benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 60-80% reductions in 2050 from the reference scenario while achieving the 2 °C target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-06-06

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

  15. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-01-01

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes. PMID:28585927

  16. The Search for Eight Glacial Cycles of Deep-Water Temperatures and Global ice Volume From the Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, P.; Elderfield, H.; Greaves, M.; McCave, N.

    2007-12-01

    It has been recently suggested "a substantial portion of the marine 100-ky cycle that has been object of so much attention over the past quarter of a century is, in reality, a deep-water temperature signal and not an ice volume signal" (Shackleton, 2000). There are currently few records available of deep-water temperature variations during the Pleistocene and most of our understanding is inferred from the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of benthic foraminifera from deep-sea sediments. However, variations in benthic δ18O reflect some combination of local to regional changes in water mass properties (largely deep- water temperature) as well as global changes in seawater δ18O (δ18Osw) resulting from the growth and decay of continental ice. Recent studies suggest that benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca may be useful in reconstructing deep-water temperature changes, but the application of this method to benthic species has been hampered by a number of unresolved issues, such as uncertainties related to the calibration for benthic Mg at the coldest temperatures. Here we present deep-sea Mg/Ca and δ18O records for the past eight glacial cycles in benthic foraminiferal ( Uvigerina spp.) calcite from a marine sediment core recovered in the mid Southern latitudes. Ocean Drilling Program Site 1123 was retrieved from Chatham Rise, east of New Zealand in the Southwest Pacific Ocean (3290 m water depth). This site lies under the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) that flows into the Pacific Ocean, and is responsible for most of the deep water in that ocean; DWBC strength is directly related to processes occurring around Antarctica. Temperatures derived via pore fluid modeling of the last glacial maximum are available from Site 1123 and represent an important tool to constrain deep-water temperatures estimates using Mg/Ca. In selected time slices, we measured B/Ca ratios in Uvigerina in order to gain information on the deep-water carbonate saturation state and have data of Mg

  17. A compact skeletal mechanism for n -dodecane with optimized semi-global low-temperature chemistry for diesel engine simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yao, Tong; Pei, Yuanjiang; Zhong, Bei-Jing; Som, Sibendu; Lu, Tianfeng; Luo, Kai Hong

    2017-03-01

    A skeletal mechanism with 54 species and 269 reactions was developed to predict pyrolysis and oxidation of n-dodecane as a diesel fuel surrogate involving both high-temperature (high-T) and low-temperature (low-T) conditions. The skeletal mechanism was developed from a semi-detailed mechanism developed at the University of Southern California (USC). Species and reactions for high-T pyrolysis and oxidation of C5-C12 were reduced by using reaction flow analysis (RFA), isomer lumping, and then merged into a skeletal C0-C4 core to form a high-T sub-mechanism. Species and lumped semi-global reactions for low-T chemistry were then added to the high-T sub-mechanism and a 54-species skeletal mechanism is obtained. The rate parameters of the low-T reactions were tuned against a detailed mechanism by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), as well as the Spray A flame experimental data, to improve the prediction of ignition delay at low-T conditions, while the high-T chemistry remained unchanged. The skeletal mechanism was validated for auto-ignition, perfectly stirred reactors (PSR), flow reactors and laminar premixed flames over a wide range of flame conditions. The skeletal mechanism was then employed to simulate three-dimensional turbulent spray flames at compression ignition engine conditions and validated against experimental data from the Engine Combustion Network (ECN).

  18. Supplementary Material for: Compressing an Ensemble With Statistical Models: An Algorithm for Global 3D Spatio-Temporal Temperature

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    One of the main challenges when working with modern climate model ensembles is the increasingly larger size of the data produced, and the consequent difficulty in storing large amounts of spatio-temporally resolved information. Many compression algorithms can be used to mitigate this problem, but since they are designed to compress generic scientific datasets, they do not account for the nature of climate model output and they compress only individual simulations. In this work, we propose a different, statistics-based approach that explicitly accounts for the space-time dependence of the data for annual global three-dimensional temperature fields in an initial condition ensemble. The set of estimated parameters is small (compared to the data size) and can be regarded as a summary of the essential structure of the ensemble output; therefore, it can be used to instantaneously reproduce the temperature fields in an ensemble with a substantial saving in storage and time. The statistical model exploits the gridded geometry of the data and parallelization across processors. It is therefore computationally convenient and allows to fit a nontrivial model to a dataset of 1 billion data points with a covariance matrix comprising of 1018 entries. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

  19. Global-Scale Associations of Vegetation Phenology with Rainfall and Temperature at a High Spatio-Temporal Resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Clinton

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Phenology response to climatic variables is a vital indicator for understanding changes in biosphere processes as related to possible climate change. We investigated global phenology relationships to precipitation and land surface temperature (LST at high spatial and temporal resolution for calendar years 2008–2011. We used cross-correlation between MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, MODIS LST and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN gridded rainfall to map phenology relationships at 1-km spatial resolution and weekly temporal resolution. We show these data to be rich in spatiotemporal information, illustrating distinct phenology patterns as a result of complex overlapping gradients of climate, ecosystem and land use/land cover. The data are consistent with broad-scale, coarse-resolution modeled ecosystem limitations to moisture, temperature and irradiance. We suggest that high-resolution phenology data are useful as both an input and complement to land use/land cover classifiers and for understanding climate change vulnerability in natural and anthropogenic landscapes.

  20. Assimilation of Global Radar Backscatter and Radiometer Brightness Temperature Observations to Improve Soil Moisture and Land Evaporation Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lievens, H.; Martens, B.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Hahn, S.; Reichle, R. H.; Miralles, D. G.

    2017-01-01

    Active radar backscatter (s?) observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and passive radiometer brightness temperature (TB) observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated either individually or jointly into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) to improve its simulations of soil moisture and land evaporation. To enable s? and TB assimilation, GLEAM is coupled to the Water Cloud Model and the L-band Microwave Emission from the Biosphere (L-MEB) model. The innovations, i.e. differences between observations and simulations, are mapped onto the model soil moisture states through an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The validation of surface (0-10 cm) soil moisture simulations over the period 2010-2014 against in situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) shows that assimilating s? or TB alone improves the average correlation of seasonal anomalies (Ran) from 0.514 to 0.547 and 0.548, respectively. The joint assimilation further improves Ran to 0.559. Associated enhancements in daily evaporative flux simulations by GLEAM are validated based on measurements from 22 FLUXNET stations. Again, the singular assimilation improves Ran from 0.502 to 0.536 and 0.533, respectively for s? and TB, whereas the best performance is observed for the joint assimilation (Ran = 0.546). These results demonstrate the complementary value of assimilating radar backscatter observations together with brightness temperatures for improving estimates of hydrological variables, as their joint assimilation outperforms the assimilation of each observation type separately.

  1. A global bioheat model with self-tuning optimal regulation of body temperature using Hebbian feedback covariance learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, M L; Ng, E Y K

    2005-12-01

    In the lower brain, body temperature is continually being regulated almost flawlessly despite huge fluctuations in ambient and physiological conditions that constantly threaten the well-being of the body. The underlying control problem defining thermal homeostasis is one of great enormity: Many systems and sub-systems are involved in temperature regulation and physiological processes are intrinsically complex and intertwined. Thus the defining control system has to take into account the complications of nonlinearities, system uncertainties, delayed feedback loops as well as internal and external disturbances. In this paper, we propose a self-tuning adaptive thermal controller based upon Hebbian feedback covariance learning where the system is to be regulated continually to best suit its environment. This hypothesis is supported in part by postulations of the presence of adaptive optimization behavior in biological systems of certain organisms which face limited resources vital for survival. We demonstrate the use of Hebbian feedback covariance learning as a possible self-adaptive controller in body temperature regulation. The model postulates an important role of Hebbian covariance adaptation as a means of reinforcement learning in the thermal controller. The passive system is based on a simplified 2-node core and shell representation of the body, where global responses are captured. Model predictions are consistent with observed thermoregulatory responses to conditions of exercise and rest, and heat and cold stress. An important implication of the model is that optimal physiological behaviors arising from self-tuning adaptive regulation in the thermal controller may be responsible for the departure from homeostasis in abnormal states, e.g., fever. This was previously unexplained using the conventional "set-point" control theory.

  2. EOF analysis of COSMIC observations on the global zonal mean temperature structure of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere from 2007 to 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, Cornelius Csar Jude H.; Chang, Loren C.

    2018-06-01

    This work presents the results of a Conventional Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis on daily global zonal mean temperature profiles in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (15-35 km), as measured by the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission from January 2007 to June 2013. For validation, results were compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Results show that, the leading global EOF mode (27%) from COSMIC is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the tropical cooling associated with boreal winter Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW). The second global EOF mode from COSMIC (15.3%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). The third global mode from COSMIC (10.9%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This work also shows that the second northern hemisphere EOF mode from COSMIC (16.8%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due Rossby-wave breaking (RWB) which is expected to only be resolved by a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC. Our work concludes that the use of a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC yields non-seasonal EOF modes that are consistent with relatively more intricate temperature anomalies due to the SSW, QBO, ENSO and RWB.

  3. A Holocene temperature reconstruction from northern New Zealand: a test of North Atlantic Holocene climate patterns as a global template

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Holocene climate variability has been well defined in the North Atlantic (Walker et al., 2012), but the global extent of this climate change stratigraphy is debatable. If the North Atlantic serves as a global template for Holocene climate, then New Zealand (NZ) is ideally positioned to test this assertion, as it is distal from the northern drivers. Additionally, it is one of the few landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere that is influenced by both sub-tropical and extra-tropical climatic regimes, which may be more important controls in the southern mid-latitudes. Although much work has been done to characterise the Holocene in NZ using pollen, most of these records lack the resolution or sensitivity to determine whether abrupt or short-lived events occurred. The NZ-INTIMATE climate event stratigraphy lacks a type section for the Holocene (Alloway et al., 2007). Records from northern NZ typically show little change, other than a possible early Holocene warming. Here, we present a combined pollen and chironomid temperature reconstruction from Lake Pupuke (northern NZ), the first of its kind in NZ that covers the entire Holocene. By comparing mean annual temperatures reconstructed from fossil pollen and mean summer temperatures inferred from chironomid remains, we can assess changes in seasonality. Mean summer temperature was reconstructed from the chironomid record using a weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) model (n comp = 2, r2booth = 0.77, RMSEP = 1.4°C) developed from an expanded version of Dieffenbacher-Krall et al. (2007)'s chironomid training set. Preliminary results show evidence for cool summers during the early Holocene as well as around the period of the Little Ice Age as defined in the North Atlantic region. These and other climate patterns determined from the Pupuke chironomid and pollen records will be compared with other evidence from northern New Zealand and with the North Atlantic record of Holocene climate variability. References

  4. Biological characteristics of Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) for three consecutive generations under different temperatures: understanding the possible impact of global warming on a soybean pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, D M; Hoffmann-Campo, C B; de Freitas Bueno, A; de Freitas Bueno, R C O; de Oliveira, M C N; Moscardi, F

    2012-06-01

    Climate changes can affect the distribution and intensity of insect infestations through direct effects on their life cycles. Experiments were carried out during three consecutive generations to evaluate the effect of different temperatures (25°C, 28°C, 31°C, 34°C and 37±1°C) on biological traits of the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis Hübner, 1818 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). The insects were fed on artificial diet and reared in environmental chambers set at 14 h photophase. The developmental cycle slowed with the increase in the temperature, within the 25°C to 34°C range. Male and female longevities were reduced with an increase in temperature from 25°C to 28°C. Egg viability was highest at 25°C, and the sex ratio was not influenced by temperature, in the three generations. There was no interactive effect between development time and temperature on pupal weight. The results suggested that the increase in the temperature negatively impacted A. gemmatalis development inside the studied temperature range, indicating a possible future reduction of its occurrence on soybean crops, as a consequence of global warming, mainly considering its impact on tropical countries where this plant is cropped. A. gemmatalis was not able to adapt to higher temperatures in a three-generation interval for the studied temperature range. However, a gradual increase and a longer adaptation period may favor insect selection and consequently adaptation, and must be considered in future studies in this area. Moreover, it is important to consider that global warming might turn cold areas more suitable to A. gemmatalis outbreaks. Therefore, more than a future reduction of A. gemmatalis occurrence due to global warming, we might expect changes regarding its area of occurrence on a global perspective.

  5. The temperature signature of an IMF-driven change to the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC) in the Antarctic troposphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Mervyn; Lam, Mai Mai; Chisham, Gareth

    2017-04-01

    We use National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data to show that Antarctic surface air temperature anomalies result from differences in the daily-mean duskward component,By, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We find the anomalies have strong geographical and seasonal variations. Regional anomalies are evident poleward of 60˚ S and are of diminishing representative peak amplitude from autumn (3.2˚ C) to winter (2.4˚ C) to spring (1.6˚ C) to summer (0.9˚ C). We demonstrate that anomalies of statistically-significant amplitude are due to geostrophic wind anomalies, resulting from the same By changes, moving air across large meridional gradients in zonal mean air temperature between 60 and 80˚ S. Additionally, we find that the mean tropospheric temperature anomaly for geographical latitudes ≤ -70˚ peaks at about 0.7 K and is statistically significant at the 1 - 5% level between air pressures of 1000 and 500 hPa (i.e., ˜0.1 to 5.6 km altitude above sea level) and for time lags with respect to the IMF of up to 7 days. The signature propagates vertically between air pressure p ≥ 850 hPa (≤ 1.5 km) and p = 500 hPa (˜5.6 km). The characteristics of prompt response and vertical propagation within the troposphere have previously been seen in the correlation between the IMF and high-latitude air pressure anomalies, known as the Mansurov effect, at higher statistical significances (1%). We conclude that we have identified the temperature signature of the Mansurov effect in the Antarctic troposphere. Since these tropospheric anomalies have been associated with By-driven anomalies in the electric potential of the ionosphere, we further conclude that they are caused by IMF-induced changes to the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC). Our results support the view that variations in the ionospheric potential act on the troposphere via the action of resulting variations in the

  6. Possible influence of long-term sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific on global zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komhyr, W D; Oltmans, S J; Grass, R D [Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., Boulder, CO (USA); Leonard, R K [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (USA)

    1991-01-01

    A significant negative correlation exists between summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east equatorial Pacific and late-October south pole total ozone values. SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific were anomalously warmer during 1976-1987 compared with 1962-1975. QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific stratosphere were generally stronger after 1975. Before the early-to-mid 1970s the trend in global ozone was generally upward, but then turned downward. Total ozone at Hawaii and Samoa, which had been decreasing during 1976-1987, showed recovery to mid-1970s values in 1988-1989 following a drop in SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to low values last observed there prior to 1976. During late October 1988, total south pole ozone, which had decreased from ca 280 Dobson units (DU) before 1980 to 140 DU in 1987, suddenly recovered to 250 DU, though substantial ozone depletion by heterogeneous photochemical processes involving polar stratospheric clouds was still evident in the south pole ozone vertical profiles. These observations suggest that the downward trend in ozone observed over the globe in recent years may have been at least partly meteorologically induced, possibly via modulation by the warmer tropical Pacific ocean waters of QBO easterly winds at the equator, of Hadley Cell circulation, or other factors. A cursory analysis of geostrophic wind flow around the Baffin Island low suggests a meteorological influence on the observed downward trend in ozone over North America during the past decade. Because ozone has a lifetime that varies from years to minutes, changes in atmospheric dynamics have a potential to not only redistribute ozone over the globe but also to change global ozone abundance. 47 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Stochastic identification of temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam: assessment of multi-model and global model approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hios, J D; Fassois, S D

    2009-01-01

    The temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam are experimentally studied via conventional multi-model and novel global model identification approaches. The multi-model approaches are based on non-parametric and parametric VARX representations, whereas the global model approaches are based on novel constant coefficient pooled (CCP) and functionally pooled (FP) VARX parametric representations. The analysis indicates that the obtained multi-model and global model representations are in rough overall agreement. Nevertheless, the latter simultaneously use all available data records offering more compact descriptions of the dynamics, improved numerical robustness and estimation accuracy, which is reflected in significantly reduced modal parameter uncertainties. Although the CCP-VARX representations provide only 'averaged' descriptions of the structural dynamics over temperature, their FP-VARX counterparts allow for the explicit, analytical modeling of temperature dependence exhibiting a 'smooth' deterministic dependence of the dynamics on temperature which is compatible with the physics of the problem. In accordance with previous studies, the obtained natural frequencies decrease with temperature in a weakly nonlinear or approximately linear fashion. The damping factors are less affected, although their dependence on temperature may be of a potentially more complex nature

  8. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) - Global, 4 km, Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1985-2005 (NODC Accession 0044419)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  9. Toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus changes under a global warming perspective: Variations in air temperature and soil moisture content

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzalez Alcaraz, M.N.; van Gestel, C.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to assess how the current global warming perspective, with increasing air temperature (20 °C vs. 25 °C) and decreasing soil moisture content (50% vs. 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC), affected the toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus

  10. A relationship between regional and global GCM surface air temperature changes and its application to an integrated model of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonas, M.; Ganopolski, A.V.; Krabec, J.; Olendrzyski, K.; Petoukhov, V.K.

    1994-01-01

    This study outlines the advantages of combining the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse affect (IMAGE, an integrated quick turnaround, global model of climate change) with a spatially detailed General Circulation Model (GCM), in this case developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) in Hamburg. The outcome is a modified IMAGE model that simulates the MPI GCM projections of annual surface air temperature change globally and regionally. IMAGE thus provides policy analysts with integrated and regional information about global warming for a great range of policy-dependent greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenarios, while preserving its quick turnaround time. With the help of IMAGE various regional temperature response simulations have been produced. None of these simulations has yet been performed by any GCM. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming. In this study the authors deal only with a simplified subsystem of such an integrated model of climate change, which begins with policy options, neglects the societal component in the greenhouse gas accounting tool, and ends with temperature change as the only output of the climate model. The model the authors employ is the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE, version 1.0), which was developed by the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). IMAGE is a scientifically based, parameterized simulation policy model designed to calculate the historical and future effects of greenhouse gases on global surface and surface air temperatures and sea-level rise

  11. The impact of global warming on germination and seedling emergence in Alliaria petiolata, a woodland species with dormancy loss dependent on low temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Footitt, S; Huang, Z; Ölcer-Footitt, H; Clay, H; Finch-Savage, W E

    2018-03-23

    The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  12. Causes of global mean surface temperature slowdowns, trends and variations from months to a century, 1891-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folland, C. K.; Boucher, O.; Colman, A.; Parker, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    The recent slowdown in the warming of global mean surface temperature (GST) has highlighted the influences of natural variability. This talk discusses reconstructions of the variations of GST down to the monthly time scale since 1891 using monthly forcing data. We show that most of the variations in annual, and to some extent sub-annual, GST since 1891 can be reproduced skillfully from known forcing factors external and internal to the climate system. This includes the slowdown in warming over about 1998-2013 where reconstruction skill is particularly high down to the multi-monthly time scale. The relative contributions of the several key forcing factors to GST continually vary, but most of the net warming since 1891 is reconstructed to be attributable to the net forcing due to increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Separate analyses are carried out for three periods of GST slowdown:- 1896-1910, 1941-1976, together with 1998-2013 and some of its sub periods. We also study two periods where strong warming occurred, 1911-1940 and 1977-1997. Comparisons are made with the skill of average GST provided by 40 CMIP5 models. In the recent 1998-2013 slowdown, TSI forcing appears to have caused significant cooling, particularly over 2001-2010. This is additional to well documented cooling effects of an increased frequency of La Nina events, a negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and some increases in volcanic forcing. Although there are short-term features of the GST curve since 1891 that cannot be fully explained, the most serious disagreements between the reconstructions and observations occur in the Second World War, especially in 1944-1945. Here observed near worldwide SSTs may be biased significantly too warm. Despite this, our generally high reconstruction skill is consistent with a good understanding of the multiple causes of observed GST variations and the general veracity of the GST record since 1891.

  13. The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland von Glasow

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES. Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT anomalies induced by stratospheric sulphate aerosol generated in order to compensate future warming. Results show that continuous deployment of sulphur into the stratosphere could induce a lasting decrease in SAT. Retaining a constant aerosol loading equivalent to 6 TgS would delay the expected global warming by 53 years. Keeping the SAT constant in a context of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs means that the aerosol loading needs to be increased by 1.9% annually. This would offset the effect of increasing GHG under the A1B scenario. A major focus of this study was on the heating rates of SAT that would arise in different scenarios in case of an abrupt cessation of sulphur injections into the stratosphere. Our model results show that heating rates after geoengineering interruption would be 15–28 times higher than in a case without geoengineering, with likely important consequences for life on Earth. Larger initial sulphate loadings induced more intense warming rates when the geoengineering was stopped at the same time. This implies that, if sulphate loading was increased to maintain constant SAT in the light of increasing GHG concentrations, the later the geoengineering interruption was to occur, the higher the heating rates would be. Consequently, geoengineering techniques like this should only be regarded as last-resort measures and require intense further research should they ever become necessary.

  14. GHRSST Level 2P Global Skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-A satellite produced by EUMETSAT (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global 1 km Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated...

  15. GHRSST Level 2P Global skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on the Metop-A satellite (GDS V2) produced by OSI SAF (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global 1 km Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated...

  16. GHRSST Level 2P Global 1m Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-18 satellite produced by NAVO (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...

  17. GHRSST Level 2P Global 1m Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-B satellite produced by NAVO (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...

  18. GHRSST Level 2P Global 1m Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the MetOp-A satellite produced by NAVO (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...

  19. GHRSST Level 2P Global 1m Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-19 satellite produced by NAVO (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 2P dataset based on multi-channel sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals generated in...

  20. Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

    2018-05-01

    Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

  1. Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J.; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A.; Lake, Iain R.

    2018-01-01

    The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. PMID:29844166

  2. GHRSST Level 4 MUR Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (v4.1) (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced as a retrospective dataset (four day latency) and...

  3. GHRSST Level 4 CMC0.1deg Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature (SST) analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Canadian...

  4. GHRSST Level 4 CMC0.2deg Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature (SST) analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Canadian...

  5. Analysis of Long-Term Global Solar Radiation, Sunshine Duration and Air Temperature Data of Ankara and Modeling with Curve Fitting Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet YEŞİLBUDAK

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The information about solar parameters is important in the installation of photovoltaic energy systems that are reliable, environmentally friendly and sustainable. In this study, initially, long-term global solar radiation, sunshine duration and air temperature data of Ankara are analyzed on the annual, monthly and daily basis, elaborately. Afterwards, three different empirical methods that are polynomial, Gaussian and Fourier are used for the purpose of modeling long-term monthly total global solar radiation, monthly total sunshine duration and monthly mean air temperature data. The coefficient of determination and the root mean square error are computed as statistical test metrics in order to compare data modeling performance of the mentioned empirical methods. The empirical methods that provide the best results enable to model the solar characteristics of Ankara more accurately and the achieved outcomes constitute the significant resource for other locations with similar climatic conditions.

  6. Sea surface temperature and salinity from the Global Ocean Surface Underway Data (GOSUD) from 1980-01-03 to present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains the Global Ocean Surface Underway Data (GOSUD) from 1980-01-03 to present as submitted to NOAA/NCEI. The data includes information about sea...

  7. Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Weiwei, E-mail: weiwei.yu@qut.edu.au [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia); Mengersen, Kerrie [Discipline of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia); Hu Wenbiao [School of Population Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, University of Queensland, Brisbane (Australia); Guo Yuming [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia); Pan Xiaochuan [School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191 (China); Tong Shilu, E-mail: s.tong@qut.edu.au [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia)

    2011-07-15

    Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 deg. C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 deg. C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality. - Highlights: > A longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. > The very old people were most vulnerable to temperature stress. > The cardiovascular mortality was also sensitive to the temperature variation. - In Brisbane, the lag effects lasted longer for cold temperatures, and shorter for hot temperatures. Elderly people and cardiovascular mortality were vulnerable to temperature stress.

  8. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambarish V Karmalkar

    Full Text Available The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation

  9. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V; Bradley, Raymond S

    2017-01-01

    The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is

  10. Mediating water temperature increases due to livestock and global change in high elevation meadow streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastien Nussle; Kathleen R. Matthews; Stephanie M. Carlson

    2015-01-01

    Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout...

  11. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  12. Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2018-04-01

    Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG V041

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MYD11C2.041 dataset was decommissioned as of March 1, 2018. Users are encouraged to use Version 6 of MODIS/Aqua Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Daily L3...

  14. Global relationships of total alkalinity with salinity and temperature in surface waters of the world's oceans. (NCEI Accession 0157795)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Total Alkalinity fields were estimated from five regional TA relationships presented in Lee et al. 2006, using monthly mean sea surface temperature and...

  15. Carbon exchange in biological soil crust communities under differential temperatures and soil water contents: implications for global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grote, Edmund E.; Belnap, Jayne; Housman, David C.; Sparks, Jed P.

    2010-01-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are an integral part of the soil system in arid regions worldwide, stabilizing soil surfaces, aiding vascular plant establishment, and are significant sources of ecosystem nitrogen and carbon. Hydration and temperature primarily control ecosystem CO2 flux in these systems. Using constructed mesocosms for incubations under controlled laboratory conditions, we examined the effect of temperature (5-35 1C) and water content (WC, 20-100%) on CO2 exchange in light cyanobacterially dominated) and dark cyanobacteria/lichen and moss dominated) biocrusts of the cool Colorado Plateau Desert in Utah and the hot Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico. In light crusts from both Utah and New Mexico, net photosynthesis was highest at temperatures 430 1C. Net photosynthesis in light crusts from Utah was relatively insensitive to changes in soil moisture. In contrast, light crusts from New Mexico tended to exhibit higher rates of net photosynthesis at higher soil moisture. Dark crusts originating from both sites exhibited the greatest net photosynthesis at intermediate soil water content (40-60%). Declines in net photosynthesis were observed in dark crusts with crusts from Utah showing declines at temperatures 425 1C and those originating from New Mexico showing declines at temperatures 435 1C. Maximum net photosynthesis in all crust types from all locations were strongly influenced by offsets in the optimal temperature and water content for gross photosynthesis compared with dark respiration. Gross photosynthesis tended to be maximized at some intermediate value of temperature and water content and dark respiration tended to increase linearly. The results of this study suggest biocrusts are capable of CO2 exchange under a wide range of conditions. However, significant changes in the magnitude of this exchange should be expected for the temperature and precipitation changes suggested by current climate models.

  16. Global gene expression profiling related to temperature-sensitive growth abnormalities in interspecific crosses between tetraploid wheat and Aegilops tauschii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryusuke Matsuda

    Full Text Available Triploid wheat hybrids between tetraploid wheat and Aegilops tauschii sometimes show abnormal growth phenotypes, and the growth abnormalities inhibit generation of wheat synthetic hexaploids. In type II necrosis, one of the growth abnormalities, necrotic cell death accompanied by marked growth repression occurs only under low temperature conditions. At normal temperature, the type II necrosis lines show grass-clump dwarfism with no necrotic symptoms, excess tillers, severe dwarfism and delayed flowering. Here, we report comparative expression analyses to elucidate the molecular mechanisms of the temperature-dependent phenotypic plasticity in the triploid wheat hybrids. We compared gene and small RNA expression profiles in crown tissues to characterize the temperature-dependent phenotypic plasticity. No up-regulation of defense-related genes was observed under the normal temperature, and down-regulation of wheat APETALA1-like MADS-box genes, considered to act as flowering promoters, was found in the grass-clump dwarf lines. Some microRNAs, including miR156, were up-regulated, whereas the levels of transcripts of the miR156 target genes SPLs, known to inhibit tiller and branch number, were reduced in crown tissues of the grass-clump dwarf lines at the normal temperature. Unusual expression of the miR156/SPLs module could explain the grass-clump dwarf phenotype. Dramatic alteration of gene expression profiles, including miRNA levels, in crown tissues is associated with the temperature-dependent phenotypic plasticity in type II necrosis/grass-clump dwarf wheat hybrids.

  17. Climate Change in Alpine Regions - Regional Characteristics of a Global Phenomenon by the Example of Air Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Erich; Stary, Ulrike

    2017-04-01

    For nearly 50 years the Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW) has been engaged in research in the Alpine region recording measuring data at extreme sites. Data series of this duration provide already a good insight into the evolution of climate parameters. Extrapolations derived from it are suitable for comparison with results from climate change models or supplement them with regard to their informative value. This is useful because climate change models describe a simplified picture of reality based on the size of the data grid they use. Analysis of time series of two air temperature measuring stations in different torrent catchment areas indicate that 1) predictions of temperature rise for the Alpine region in Austria will have to be revised upwards, and 2) only looking at the data of seasons (or shorter time periods), reveals the real dramatic effect of climate change. Considering e.g. the annual average data of air temperature of the years 1969-2016 at the climate station "Fleissner" (altitude 1210m a.s.l; Upper Mölltal, Carinthia) a significant upward trend is visible. Using a linear smoothing function an increase of the average annual air temperature of about 2.2°C within 50 years emerges. The calculated temperature rise thus confirms the general fear of an increase of more than 2.0°C till the middle of the 21st century. Looking at the seasonal change of air temperature, significant positive trends are shown in all four seasons. But the level of the respective temperature increase varies considerably and indicates the highest increase in spring (+3.3°C), and the lowest one in autumn (+1.3°C, extrapolated for a time period of 50 years). The maximum increase of air temperature at the measuring station "Pumpenhaus" (altitude 980m a.s.l), which is situated in the "Karnische Alpen" in the south of Austria, is even stronger. From a time series of 28 years (with data recording starting in 1989) the maximum rise of temperature was 5.4°C detected for the

  18. Why must a solar forcing be larger than a CO2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modak, Angshuman; Bala, Govindasamy; Cao, Long; Caldeira, Ken

    2016-01-01

    Many previous studies have shown that a solar forcing must be greater than a CO 2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change but a process-based mechanistic explanation is lacking in the literature. In this study, we investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for the lower efficacy of solar forcing compared to an equivalent CO 2 forcing. Radiative forcing is estimated using the Gregory method that regresses top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux against the change in global mean surface temperature. For a 2.25% increase in solar irradiance that produces the same long term global mean warming as a doubling of CO 2 concentration, we estimate that the efficacy of solar forcing is ∼80% relative to CO 2 forcing in the NCAR CAM5 climate model. We find that the fast tropospheric cloud adjustments especially over land and stratospheric warming in the first four months cause the slope of the regression between the TOA net radiative fluxes and surface temperature to be steeper in the solar forcing case. This steeper slope indicates a stronger net negative feedback and hence correspondingly a larger solar forcing than CO 2 forcing for the same equilibrium surface warming. Evidence is provided that rapid land surface warming in the first four months sets up a land-sea contrast that markedly affects radiative forcing and the climate feedback parameter over this period. We also confirm the robustness of our results using simulations from the Hadley Centre climate model. Our study has important implications for estimating the magnitude of climate change caused by volcanic eruptions, solar geoengineering and past climate changes caused by change in solar irradiance such as Maunder minimum. (letter)

  19. Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, Sara C.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; Schoof, Justin T.

    2017-12-01

    The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures (T) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θe) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θe are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity (Q) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights (Z), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture (text">SM). text">SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θe over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of text">SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θe. Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T, synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and text">SM). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θe, where

  20. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

    2018-05-13

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of

  1. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-05-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a

  2. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-01-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for

  3. A global model for gas cooled reactors for the Generation-4: application to the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limaiem, I.

    2006-12-01

    Gas cooled high temperature reactor (HTR) belongs to the new generation of nuclear power plants called Generation IV. The Generation IV gathers the entire future nuclear reactors concept with an effective deployment by 2050. The technological choices relating to the nature of the fuel, the moderator and the coolant as well as the annular geometry of the core lead to some physical characteristics. The most important of these characteristics is the very strong thermal feedback in both active zone and the reflectors. Consequently, HTR physics study requires taking into account the strong coupling between neutronic and thermal hydraulics. The work achieved in this Phd consists in modeling, programming and studying of the neutronic and thermal hydraulics coupling system for block type gas cooled HTR. The coupling system uses a separate resolution of the neutronic and thermal hydraulics problems. The neutronic scheme is a double level Transport (APOLLO2) /Diffusion (CRONOS2) scheme respectively on the scale of the fuel assembly and a reactor core scale. The thermal hydraulics model uses simplified Navier Stokes equations solved in homogeneous porous media in code CAST3M CFD code. A generic homogenization model is used to calculate the thermal hydraulics parameters of the porous media. A de-homogenization model ensures the link between the porous media temperatures of the temperature defined in the neutronic model. The coupling system is made by external procedures communicating between the thermal hydraulics and neutronic computer codes. This Phd thesis contributed to the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) physics studies. In this field, we studied the VHTR core in normal operating mode. The studies concern the VHTR core equilibrium cycle with the control rods and using the neutronic and thermal hydraulics coupling system. These studies allowed the study of the equilibrium between the power, the temperature and Xenon. These studies open new perspective for core

  4. The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost Database: metadata statistics and prospective analysis on future permafrost temperature and active layer depth monitoring site distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biskaborn, B. K.; Lanckman, J.-P.; Lantuit, H.; Elger, K.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Cable, W. L.; Romanovsky, V. E.

    2015-03-01

    The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness data from Arctic, Antarctic and Mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of the database is to establish an "early warning system" for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata aiming to identify the spatial gaps in the GTN-P site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the Data Management System in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50% metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi Tessellation Analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides potential locations of additional permafrost research sites to improve the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73% are shallower than 25 m and 27% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations on maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high

  5. Upper ocean currents and sea surface temperatures (SST) from Satellite-tracked drifting buoys (drifters) as part of the Global Drifter Program for Hawaii region 1980/02/01 - 2009/03/31 (NODC Accession 0063296)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Satellite-tracked drifting buoys ("drifters") collect measurements of upper ocean currents and sea surface temperatures (SST) around the world as part of the Global...

  6. GHRSST L3C global sub-skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on Metop satellites (currently Metop-A) (GDS V2) produced by OSI SAF (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 3 Collated (L3C) dataset derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)...

  7. GHRSST L3C global sub-skin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on Metop satellites (currently Metop-B) (GDS V2) produced by OSI SAF (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A global Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 3 Collated (L3C) dataset derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)...

  8. Delayed CTD and XBT data assembled and submitted by the Canada Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) for the Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Program (GTSPP), dates range from 06/08/1979 - 05/25/2010 (NODC Accession 0065272)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Integrated Science Data Management (ISDM) office processes oceanographic profiles for the world oceans and submits these data to the Global Temperature and...

  9. Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

    2013-07-01

    Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

  10. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

  11. EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF THE SOLAR CORONA DURING THE MINIMUM BETWEEN SOLAR CYCLES 23 AND 24

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nuevo, Federico A.; Vasquez, Alberto M. [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (CONICET-UBA) and FCEN (UBA), CC 67-Suc 28, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Huang Zhenguang; Frazin, Richard; Manchester, Ward B. IV; Jin Meng [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States)

    2013-08-10

    The combination of differential emission measure tomography with extrapolation of the photospheric magnetic field allows determination of the electron density and electron temperature along individual magnetic field lines. This is especially useful in quiet-Sun (QS) plasmas where individual loops cannot otherwise be identified. In Paper I, this approach was applied to study QS plasmas during Carrington rotation (CR) 2077 at the minimum between solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24. In that work, two types of QS coronal loops were identified: ''up'' loops in which the temperature increases with height, and ''down'' loops in which the temperature decreases with height. While the first ones were expected, the latter ones were a surprise and, furthermore, were found to be ubiquitous in the low-latitude corona. In the present work, we extend the analysis to 11 CRs around the last solar minimum. We found that the ''down'' population, always located at low latitudes, was maximum at the time when the sunspot number was minimum, and the number of down loops systematically increased during the declining phase of SC-23 and diminished during the rising phase of SC-24. ''Down'' loops are found to have systematically larger values of {beta} than do ''up'' loops. These discoveries are interpreted in terms of excitation of Alfven waves in the photosphere, and mode conversion and damping in the low corona.

  12. Relationship between wine composition and temperature: Impact on Bordeaux wine typicity in the context of global warming-Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drappier, Julie; Thibon, Cécile; Rabot, Amélie; Geny-Denis, Laurence

    2017-10-24

    Weather conditions throughout the year have a greater influence than other factors (such as soil and cultivars) on grapevine development and berry composition. Temperature affects gene expression and enzymatic activity of primary and secondary metabolism which determine grape ripening and wine characteristics. In the context of the climate change, temperatures will probably rise between 0.3°C and 1.7°C over the next 20 years. They are already rising and the physiology of grapevines is already changing. These modifications exert a profound shift in primary (sugar and organic acid balance) and secondary (phenolic and aromatic compounds) berry metabolisms and the resulting composition of wine. For example, some Bordeaux wines have a tendency toward reduced freshness and a modification of their ruby color. In this context it is necessary to understand the impact of higher temperatures on grape development, harvest procedures, and wine composition in order to preserve the typicity of the wines and to adapt winemaking processes.

  13. EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF THE SOLAR CORONA DURING THE MINIMUM BETWEEN SOLAR CYCLES 23 AND 24

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuevo, Federico A.; Vásquez, Alberto M.; Huang Zhenguang; Frazin, Richard; Manchester, Ward B. IV; Jin Meng

    2013-01-01

    The combination of differential emission measure tomography with extrapolation of the photospheric magnetic field allows determination of the electron density and electron temperature along individual magnetic field lines. This is especially useful in quiet-Sun (QS) plasmas where individual loops cannot otherwise be identified. In Paper I, this approach was applied to study QS plasmas during Carrington rotation (CR) 2077 at the minimum between solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24. In that work, two types of QS coronal loops were identified: ''up'' loops in which the temperature increases with height, and ''down'' loops in which the temperature decreases with height. While the first ones were expected, the latter ones were a surprise and, furthermore, were found to be ubiquitous in the low-latitude corona. In the present work, we extend the analysis to 11 CRs around the last solar minimum. We found that the ''down'' population, always located at low latitudes, was maximum at the time when the sunspot number was minimum, and the number of down loops systematically increased during the declining phase of SC-23 and diminished during the rising phase of SC-24. ''Down'' loops are found to have systematically larger values of β than do ''up'' loops. These discoveries are interpreted in terms of excitation of Alfvén waves in the photosphere, and mode conversion and damping in the low corona

  14. Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Sally; Goodwin, Philip; Wahl, Thomas; Lowe, Jason; Solan, Martin; Godbold, Jasmin A; Haigh, Ivan D; Lincke, Daniel; Hinkel, Jochen; Wolff, Claudia; Merkens, Jan-Ludolf

    2018-05-13

    The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

  15. Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Goodwin, Philip; Wahl, Thomas; Lowe, Jason; Solan, Martin; Godbold, Jasmin A.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Lincke, Daniel; Hinkel, Jochen; Wolff, Claudia; Merkens, Jan-Ludolf

    2018-05-01

    The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

  16. Northern range expansion of European populations of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi is associated with global warming-correlated genetic admixture and population-specific temperature adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krehenwinkel, Henrik; Tautz, Diethard

    2013-04-01

    Poleward range expansions are observed for an increasing number of species, which may be an effect of global warming during the past decades. However, it is still not clear in how far these expansions reflect simple geographical shifts of species ranges, or whether new genetic adaptations play a role as well. Here, we analyse the expansion of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi into Northern Europe during the last century. We have used a range-wide sampling of contemporary populations and historical specimens from museums to trace the phylogeography and genetic changes associated with the range shift. Based on the analysis of mitochondrial, microsatellite and SNP markers, we observe a higher level of genetic diversity in the expanding populations, apparently due to admixture of formerly isolated lineages. Using reciprocal transplant experiments for testing overwintering tolerance, as well as temperature preference and tolerance tests in the laboratory, we find that the invading spiders have possibly shifted their temperature niche. This may be a key adaptation for survival in Northern latitudes. The museum samples allow a reconstruction of the invasion's genetic history. A first, small-scale range shift started around 1930, in parallel with the onset of global warming. A more massive invasion of Northern Europe associated with genetic admixture and morphological changes occurred in later decades. We suggest that the latter range expansion into far Northern latitudes may be a consequence of the admixture that provided the genetic material for adaptations to new environmental regimes. Hence, global warming could have facilitated the initial admixture of populations and this resulted in genetic lineages with new habitat preferences. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Natural blood feeding and temperature shift modulate the global transcriptional profile of Rickettsia rickettsii infecting its tick vector.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Fernanda B M Galletti

    Full Text Available Rickettsia rickettsii is an obligate intracellular tick-borne bacterium that causes Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever (RMSF, the most lethal spotted fever rickettsiosis. When an infected starving tick begins blood feeding from a vertebrate host, R. rickettsii is exposed to a temperature elevation and to components in the blood meal. These two environmental stimuli have been previously associated with the reactivation of rickettsial virulence in ticks, but the factors responsible for this phenotype conversion have not been completely elucidated. Using customized oligonucleotide microarrays and high-throughput microfluidic qRT-PCR, we analyzed the effects of a 10°C temperature elevation and of a blood meal on the transcriptional profile of R. rickettsii infecting the tick Amblyomma aureolatum. This is the first study of the transcriptome of a bacterium in the genus Rickettsia infecting a natural tick vector. Although both stimuli significantly increased bacterial load, blood feeding had a greater effect, modulating five-fold more genes than the temperature upshift. Certain components of the Type IV Secretion System (T4SS were up-regulated by blood feeding. This suggests that this important bacterial transport system may be utilized to secrete effectors during the tick vector's blood meal. Blood feeding also up-regulated the expression of antioxidant enzymes, which might correspond to an attempt by R. rickettsii to protect itself against the deleterious effects of free radicals produced by fed ticks. The modulated genes identified in this study, including those encoding hypothetical proteins, require further functional analysis and may have potential as future targets for vaccine development.

  18. A new global empirical model of the electron temperature with the inclusion of the solar activity variations for IRI

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Truhlík, Vladimír; Bilitza, D.; Třísková, Ludmila

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 64, č. 6 (2012), s. 531-543 ISSN 1343-8832 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420603; GA ČR GAP209/10/2086 Grant - others: NASA (US) NNH06CD17C. Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Electron temperature * ionosphere * plasmasphere * empirical models * International Reference Ionosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.921, year: 2012 http://www.terrapub.co.jp/journals/EPS/abstract/6406/64060531.html

  19. Effects of an assumed cosmic ray-modulated low global cloud cover on the Earth's temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez, J.; Mendoza, B. [Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Mendoza, V.; Adem, J. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: victor@atmosfera.unam.mx

    2006-07-15

    We have used the Thermodynamic Model of the Climate to estimate the effect of variations in the low cloud cover on the surface temperature of the Earth in the Northern Hemisphere during the period 1984-1994. We assume that the variations in the low cloud cover are proportional to the variation of the cosmic ray flux measured during the same period. The results indicate that the effect in the surface temperature is more significant in the continents, where for July of 1991, we have found anomalies of the order of 0.7 degrees Celsius for the southeastern of Asia and 0.5 degrees Celsius for the northeast of Mexico. For an increase of 0.75% in the low cloud cover, the surface temperature computed by the model in the North Hemisphere presents a decrease of {approx} 0.11 degrees Celsius; however, for a decrease of 0.90% in the low cloud cover, the model gives an increase in the surface temperature of {approx} 0.15 degrees Celsius, these two cases correspond to a climate sensitivity factor for the case of forcing by duplication of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. These decreases or increases in surface temperature by increases of decreases in low clouds cover are ten times greater than the overall variability of the non-forced model time series. [Spanish] Hemos usado el Modelo Termodinamico del Clima para estimar el efecto de variaciones en la cubierta de nubes bajas sobre la temperatura superficial de la Tierra en el Hemisferio Norte durante el periodo 1984 - 1994. Suponemos que las variaciones en la cubierta de nubes bajas son proporcionales a las variaciones del flujo de rayos cosmicos medido durante el mismo periodo. Los resultados indican que el efecto en la temperatura es mas significativo en los continentes, donde para julio de 1991, hemos encontrado anomalias del orden de 0.7 grados Celsius sobre el sureste de Asia y 0.5 grados Celsius al noreste de Mexico. Para un incremento de 0.75% en la cubierta de nubes bajas, la temperatura de la superficie calculada por el modelo en

  20. Slow dynamics and glass transition in simulated free-standing polymer films: a possible relation between global and local glass transition temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peter, S; Meyer, H; Baschnagel, J; Seemann, R

    2007-01-01

    We employ molecular dynamics simulations to explore the influence that the surface of a free-standing polymer film exerts on its structural relaxation when the film is cooled toward the glass transition. Our simulations are concerned with the features of a coarse-grained bead-spring model in a temperature regime above the critical temperature T c of mode-coupling theory. We find that the film dynamics is spatially heterogeneous. Monomers at the free surface relax much faster than they would in the bulk at the same temperature T. The fast relaxation of the surface layer continuously turns into bulk-like relaxation with increasing distance y from the surface. This crossover remains smooth for all T, but its range grows on cooling. We show that it is possible to associate a gradient in critical temperatures T c (y) with the gradient in the relaxation dynamics. This finding is in qualitative agreement with experimental results on supported polystyrene (PS) films (Ellison and Torkelson 2003 Nat. Mater. 2 695). Furthermore we show that the y dependence of T c (y) can be expressed in terms of the depression of T c (h)-the global T c for a film of thickness h-if we assume that T c (h) is the arithmetic mean of T c (y) and parameterize the depression of T c (h) by T c (h) = T c /(1+h 0 /h), a formula suggested by Herminghaus et al (2001 Eur. Phys. J. E 5 531) for the reduction of the glass transition temperature in supported PS films. We demonstrate the validity of this formula by comparing our simulation results to results from other simulations and experiments

  1. Reverse trends of TEX86 temperature in coastal areas of the East China Sea over the last 100 years: implication for global warming and regional circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Y.; Xing, L.; Zhang, T.

    2017-12-01

    To reconstruct and compare the SST changes in different regions of the ECS over the last 100 years, in this study, we analyzed iGDGTs compounds and TEX86 index in two sediment cores (DH5-1 and DH6-2) from the inner shelf of the East China Sea (ECS). GDGT-0 and GDGT-5 in the two cores account for 80% of iGDGTs, significantly more abundant than the other iGDGTs compounds. It is also found that iGDGTs are mainly derived from marine Thaumarchaeota. TEXH86 temperatures varied from 17 °C to 22 °C (average 19.4 °C), showing a gradual increase in Core DH5-1 near the Changjiang River Estuary, corresponding to global warming and temperature rise in the ECS over the last 100 years. However, in Core DH6-2 further away from the Changjiang River Estuary, TEXH86 temperatures gradually decreased over the last 80 years with a range of 15.3 °C-18.3 °C, which is attributed to the strengthened near-shore Kuroshio Branch Current transporting more subsurface cold water to the ECS coastal area. In future, more sites should be investigated to confirm the range of the coastal area where the decrease in SST is caused by upwelling subsurface water.

  2. Global temperature estimates in the troposphere and stratosphere: a validation study of COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kishore

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper mainly focuses on the validation of temperature estimates derived with the newly launched Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC/Formosa Satellite 3 (FORMOSAT-3 system. The analysis is based on the radio occultation (RO data samples collected during the first year observation from April 2006 to April 2007. For the validation, we have used the operational stratospheric analyses including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Reanalysis (NCEP, the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25, and the United Kingdom Met Office (MetO data sets. Comparisons done in different formats reveal good agreement between the COSMIC and reanalysis outputs. Spatially, the largest deviations are noted in the polar latitudes, and height-wise, the tropical tropopause region noted the maximum differences (2–4 K. We found that among the three reanalysis data sets the NCEP data sets have the best resemblance with the COSMIC measurements.

  3. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Yi [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2014-11-24

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include

  4. Response of the global surface ozone distribution to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature changes: implications for long-range transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Kan; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George; Zhang, Jiachen; Tao, Wei; Cheng, Yanli; Tao, Shu

    2017-07-01

    The response of surface ozone (O3) concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST

  5. Response of the global surface ozone distribution to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature changes: implications for long-range transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The response of surface ozone (O3 concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM. Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage

  6. A binary genetic programing model for teleconnection identification between global sea surface temperature and local maximum monthly rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Nourani, Vahid; Hrnjica, Bahrudin; Molajou, Amir

    2017-12-01

    The effectiveness of genetic programming (GP) for solving regression problems in hydrology has been recognized in recent studies. However, its capability to solve classification problems has not been sufficiently explored so far. This study develops and applies a novel classification-forecasting model, namely Binary GP (BGP), for teleconnection studies between sea surface temperature (SST) variations and maximum monthly rainfall (MMR) events. The BGP integrates certain types of data pre-processing and post-processing methods with conventional GP engine to enhance its ability to solve both regression and classification problems simultaneously. The model was trained and tested using SST series of Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea as potential predictors as well as classified MMR events at two locations in Iran as predictand. Skill of the model was measured in regard to different rainfall thresholds and SST lags and compared to that of the hybrid decision tree-association rule (DTAR) model available in the literature. The results indicated that the proposed model can identify potential teleconnection signals of surrounding seas beneficial to long-term forecasting of the occurrence of the classified MMR events.

  7. Atmospheric dayglow diagnostics involving the O2(b-X) Atmospheric band emission: Global Oxygen and Temperature (GOAT) mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slanger, T. G.; Pejaković, D. A.; Kostko, O.; Matsiev, D.; Kalogerakis, K. S.

    2017-03-01

    The terrestrial dayglow displays prominent emission features from the 0-0 and 1-1 bands of the O2 Atmospheric band system in the 760-780 nm region. We present an analysis of observations in this wavelength region recorded by the Space Shuttle during the Arizona Airglow Experiment. A major conclusion is that the dominant product of O(1D) + O2 energy transfer is O2(b, v = 1), a result that corroborates our previous laboratory studies. Moreover, critical to the interpretation of dayglow is the possible interference by N2 and N2+ bands in the 760-780 nm region, where the single-most important component is the N2 1PG 3-1 band that overlaps with the O2(b-X) 0-0 band. When present, this background must be accounted for to reveal the O2(b-X) 0-0 and 1-1 bands for altitudes at which the O2 and N2/N2+ emissions coincide. Finally, we exploit the very different collisional behavior of the two lowest O2(b) vibrational levels to outline a remote sensing technique that provides information on Atmospheric composition and temperature from space-based observations of the 0-0 and 1-1 O2 atmospheric bands.

  8. Global Monitoring RSEM System for Crop Production by Incorporating Satellite-based Photosynthesis Rates and Anomaly Data of Sea Surface Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.; Sakuma, H.

    2014-12-01

    The first author has been developing RSEM crop-monitoring system using satellite-based assessment of photosynthesis, incorporating meteorological conditions. Crop production comprises of several stages and plural mechanisms based on leaf photosynthesis, surface energy balance, and the maturing of grains after fixation of CO2, along with water exchange through soil vegetation-atmosphere transfer. Grain production in prime countries appears to be randomly perturbed regionally and globally. Weather for crop plants reflects turbulent phenomena of convective and advection flows in atmosphere and surface boundary layer. It has been difficult for scientists to simulate and forecast weather correctly for sufficiently long terms to crop harvesting. However, severely poor harvests related to continental events must originate from a consistent mechanism of abnormal energetic flow in the atmosphere through both land and oceans. It should be remembered that oceans have more than 100 times of energy storage compared to atmosphere and ocean currents represent gigantic energy flows, strongly affecting climate. Anomalies of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), globally known as El Niño, Indian Ocean dipole, and Atlantic Niño etc., affect the seasonal climate on a continental scale. The authors aim to combine monitoring and seasonal forecasting, considering such mechanisms through land-ocean biosphere transfer. The present system produces assessments for all continents, specifically monitoring agricultural fields of main crops. Historical regions of poor and good harvests are compared with distributions of SST anomalies, which are provided by NASA GSFC. Those comparisons fairly suggest that the Worst harvest in 1993 and the Best in 1994 relate to the offshore distribution of low temperature anomalies and high gaps in ocean surface temperatures. However, high-temperature anomalies supported good harvests because of sufficient solar radiation for photosynthesis, and poor harvests because

  9. Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

    2018-03-01

    To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

  10. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2009-10-01 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2007-06-10 to 2009-10-07 (NODC Accession 0058661)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  11. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of March 2008 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1979-05-15 to 2008-03-31 (NODC Accession 0040187)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  12. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-04-22 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-02-02 to 2007-04-28 (NODC Accession 0014931)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  13. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2005-11-20 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-03-21 to 2005-11-26 (NODC Accession 0002459)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  14. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2010-09-09 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1999-10-24 to 2010-08-30 (NODC Accession 0067580)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository(GADR as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  15. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of September 2007 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2007-09-30 (NODC Accession 0033660)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  16. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2005-09-25 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-12-21 to 2005-10-01 (NODC Accession 0002389)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  17. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2010-01-07 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-09-15 to 2010-01-13 (NODC Accession 0061249)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  18. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2010-05-27 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-03-08 to 2010-06-02 (NODC Accession 0064761)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository(GADR as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  19. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2006-03-19 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2004-07-14 to 2006-03-25 (NODC Accession 0002612)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  20. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2003-11-23 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-07-20 to 2003-11-29 (NODC Accession 0001246)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  1. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of August 2006 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2006-08-31 (NODC Accession 0002818)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  2. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2005-01-30 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 2002-12-13 to 2005-02-05 (NODC Accession 0002012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  3. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-05-23 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-07-01 to 2004-05-29 (NODC Accession 0001478)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  4. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-01-18 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-11-08 to 2004-01-24 (NODC Accession 0001357)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  5. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2009-03-05 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1998-05-18 to 2009-03-10 (NODC Accession 0001641)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  6. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-10-03 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-08-08 to 2004-10-09 (NODC Accession 0001749)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  7. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-02-25 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-08-25 to 2007-03-03 (NODC Accession 0013725)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  8. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-04-25 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1999-10-24 to 2004-05-01 (NODC Accession 0001437)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  9. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2006-06-04 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2005-01-22 to 2006-06-10 (NODC Accession 0002711)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  10. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-07-08 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-03-30 to 2007-07-14 (NODC Accession 0029182)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  11. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of December 2003 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2003-12-31 (NODC Accession 0001286)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  12. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2005-01-23 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 2002-12-03 to 2005-01-29 (NODC Accession 0002001)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  13. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-11-21 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-08-30 to 2004-11-27 (NODC Accession 0001911)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  14. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2009-01-22 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-02-10 to 2009-01-28 (NODC Accession 0050189)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  15. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of January 2005 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2005-01-31 (NODC Accession 0002005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  16. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2006-03-12 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2005-10-27 to 2006-03-18 (NODC Accession 0002605)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  17. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-02-08 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-08-30 to 2004-02-14 (NODC Accession 0001360)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  18. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2006-04-16 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1999-07-01 to 2006-04-22 (NODC Accession 0002646)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  19. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2005-10-16 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-07-12 to 2005-10-19 (NODC Accession 0002413)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  20. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2009-08-20 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-09-30 to 2009-08-26 (NODC Accession 0057201)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  1. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2006-10-22 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2004-02-25 to 2006-10-28 (NODC Accession 0010636)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  2. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2010-09-16 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1999-10-21 to 2010-09-22 (NODC Accession 0067581)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository(GADR as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  3. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of August 2007 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2007-08-31 (NODC Accession 0032684)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  4. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2003-07-06 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1997-07-28 to 2003-07-12 (NODC Accession 0001095)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  5. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-02-04 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-02-05 to 2007-02-10 (NODC Accession 0013171)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  6. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2006-09-17 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-06-02 to 2006-09-23 (NODC Accession 0006774)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  7. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-03-25 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-03-30 to 2007-03-31 (NODC Accession 0014451)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  8. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2009-07-16 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-03-01 2009-07-22 (NODC Accession 0056186)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  9. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2009-11-19 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-02-01 to 2009-11-25 (NODC Accession 0059843)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  10. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-01-21 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-01-09 to 2007-01-27 (NODC Accession 0012971)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  11. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-04-11 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-11-22 to 2004-04-17 (NODC Accession 0001428)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  12. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2005-01-16 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 2003-11-12 to 2005-01-22 (NODC Accession 0001993)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  13. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-02-01 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-09-21 to 2004-02-07 (NODC Accession 0001359)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  14. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-06-20 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-07-05 to 2004-06-26 (NODC Accession 0001514)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  15. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-07-01 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-11-22 to 2007-07-07 (NODC Accession 0026390)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  16. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of December 2004 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2004-12-31 (NODC Accession 0001960)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  17. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-06-03 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-12-03 to 2007-06-09 (NODC Accession 0020394)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository(GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  18. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2005-01-09 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 2000-03-01 to 2005-01-15 (NODC Accession 0001981)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  19. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-05-20 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-07-29 to 2007-05-26 (NODC Accession 0019205)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  20. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2005-05-08 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2005-03-31 to 2005-05-14 (NODC Accession 0002178)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  1. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2006-07-16 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-05-10 to 2006-07-22 (NODC Accession 0002765)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  2. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2003-09-21 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-05-28 to 2003-09-27 (NODC Accession 0001182)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  3. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-06-17 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-08-04 to 2007-06-23 (NODC Accession 0020556)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  4. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of October 2004 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2004-10-31 (NODC Accession 0001897)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  5. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of April 2005 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2005-04-30 (NODC Accession 0002163)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  6. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2003-12-07 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-11-24 to 2003-12-13 (NODC Accession 0001266)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  7. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-09-30 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-12-02 to 2007-10-06 (NODC Accession 0035503)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository(GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  8. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-11-06 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1997-07-05 to 2008-11-12 (NODC Accession 0048682)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  9. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-08-14 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2006-10-22 to 2008-08-20 (NODC Accession 0044799)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  10. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-02-24 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1979-05-15 to 2008-03-01 (NODC Accession 0039348)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  11. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-11-04 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1995-09-07 to 2007-11-10 (NODC Accession 0036509)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  12. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-10-23 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1998-05-22 to 2008-10-29 (NODC Accession 0047147)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  13. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-10-14 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1995-09-07 to 2007-10-20 (NODC Accession 0035978)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  14. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-06-19 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-05-02 to 2008-06-25 (NODC Accession 0043160)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  15. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-10-21 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-06-04 to 2007-10-27 (NODC Accession 0036107)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  16. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-12-30 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2007-09-26 to 2008-01-05 (NODC Accession 0037968)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  17. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-11-25 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-05-10 to 2007-12-01 (NODC Accession 0036984)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  18. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-12-09 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-11-21 to 2007-12-15 (NODC Accession 0037174)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  19. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-02-17 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2004-06-16 to 2008-02-23 (NODC Accession 0039187)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  20. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-03-20 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2005-09-03 to 2008-03-26 (NODC Accession 0039831)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  1. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-05-08 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1999-10-22 to 2008-05-14 (NODC Accession 0042233)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  2. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-07-10 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2007-12-18 to 2008-07-17 (NODC Accession 0043460)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  3. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-02-10 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-06-21 to 2008-02-16 (NODC Accession 0038996)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  4. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-07-17 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-08-06 to 2008-07-23 (NODC Accession 0043700)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  5. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-02-03 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2005-03-15 to 2008-02-09 (NODC Accession 0038806)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  6. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-04-10 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2003-01-04 to 2008-04-16 (NODC Accession 0041438)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  7. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-05-29 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2006-03-01 to 2008-06-04 (NODC Accession 0042701)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  8. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-09-18 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1997-07-28 to 2008-09-24 (NODC Accession 0045718)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  9. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-07-24 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-04-06 to 2008-07-30 (NODC Accession 0044081)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  10. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008- 10-16 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1998-05-22 to 2008-10-22 (NODC Accession 0046744)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  11. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-12-16 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-09-28 to 2007-12-22 (NODC Accession 0037749)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  12. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-10-02 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-01-19 to 2008-10-08 (NODC Accession 0046221)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  13. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-03-13 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-03-30 to 2008-03-19 (NODC Accession 0039736)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  14. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-12-02 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1999-10-22 to 2007-12-08 (NODC Accession 0037064)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  15. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-05-22 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2006-10-03 to 2008-05-27 (NODC Accession 0042581)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  16. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-01-20 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-06-13 to 2008-01-26 (NODC Accession 0038512)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  17. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-01-27 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-06-06 to 2008-02-02 (NODC Accession 0038684)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  18. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-11-11 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-01-11 to 2007-11-17 (NODC Accession 0036655)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  19. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-07-31 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2005-09-23 to 2008-08-06 (NODC Accession 0044418)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  20. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-10-30 for the Global Argo Data Repository from 1998-05-18 to 2008-11-05 (NODC Accession 0048681)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  1. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-05-01 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1999-10-21 to 2008-05-07 (NODC Accession 0042027)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  2. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-04-24 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1992-02-07 to 2008-04-30 (NODC Accession 0041852)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  3. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling for the week of 2008-03-02 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-03-30 to 2008-03-11 (NODC Accession 0039531)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  4. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-11-18 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2004-04-08 to 2007-11-24 (NODC Accession 0036810)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  5. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-06-12 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2006-03-24 to 2008-06-18 (NODC Accession 0042993)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  6. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-10-09 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1999-10-21 to 2008-10-15 (NODC Accession 0046551)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  7. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-01-06 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-12-13 to 2008-01-12 (NODC Accession 0038182)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  8. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-05-15 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2008-05-04 to 2008-05-21 (NODC Accession 0042436)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  9. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-04-17 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2004-01-01 to 2008-04-23 (NODC Accession 0041687)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  10. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-09-04 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-12-28 to 2008-09-10 (NODC Accession 0045433)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  11. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-08-28 for the Global Argo Data Repository from 2001-11-01 to 2008-09-03 (NODC Accession 0045171)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  12. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-07-03 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-08-02 to 2008-07-09 (NODC Accession 0043301)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  13. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-06-26 for the Global Argo Data Repository from 2006-10-24 to 2008-07-02 (NODC Accession 0043168)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  14. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-06-05 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2006-10-08 to 2008-06-11 (NODC Accession 0042829)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  15. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-09-11 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1999-11-22 to 2008-09-17 (NODC Accession 0045501)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  16. Temperature and Salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2008-08-07 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2006-09-25 to 2008-08-12 (NODC Accession 0044571)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  17. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-12-23 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-12-13 to 2007-12-29 (NODC Accession 0037840)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  18. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-01-13 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2000-05-19 to 2008-01-19 (NODC Accession 0038416)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR)as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  19. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2009-02-12 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 1998-05-13 to 2009-02-18 (NODC Accession 0051087)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  20. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2004-09-12 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2004-01-12 to 2004-09-18 (NODC Accession 0001719)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  1. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2009-11-26 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-12-21 to 2009-12-02 (NODC Accession 0059941)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  2. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2007-01-14 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2002-11-10 to 2007-01-20 (NODC Accession 0012843)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  3. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of September 2004 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2004-09-30 (NODC Accession 0001735)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  4. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of February 2005 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2005-02-28 (NODC Accession 0002048)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  5. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the month of January 2006 for the Global Argo Data Repository, 1996-01-05 to 2006-01-31 (NODC Accession 0002524)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  6. Temperature and salinity profile data from globally distributed Argo profiling floats for the week of 2006-09-24 for the Global Argo Data Repository, date ranged from 2001-02-10 to 2006-09-30 (NODC Accession 0009915)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) operates the Global Argo Data Repository (GADR) as the long-term archive for the International Global Argo Project...

  7. Sea surface temperature as a proxy for convective gravity wave excitation: a study based on global gravity wave observations in the middle atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. Jia

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Absolute values of gravity wave momentum flux (GWMF deduced from satellite measurements by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER instrument and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST with the aim of identifying those oceanic regions for which convection is a major source of gravity waves (GWs. Our study identifies those latitude bands where high correlation coefficients indicate convective excitation with confidence. This is based on a global ray-tracing simulation, which is used to delineate the source and wind-filtering effects. Convective GWs are identified at the eastern coasts of the continents and over the warm water regions formed by the warm ocean currents, in particular the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio. Potential contributions of tropical cyclones to the excitation of the GWs are discussed. Convective excitation can be identified well into the mid-mesosphere. In propagating upward, the centers of GWMF formed by convection shift poleward. Some indications of the main forcing regions are even shown for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT.

  8. Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

  9. Toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus changes under a global warming perspective: Variations in air temperature and soil moisture content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Alcaraz, M Nazaret; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-12-15

    This study aimed to assess how the current global warming perspective, with increasing air temperature (20°C vs. 25°C) and decreasing soil moisture content (50% vs. 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC), affected the toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus. Enchytraeids were exposed for 21d to a dilution series of the agricultural soil with Lufa 2.2 control soil under four climate situations: 20°C+50% WHC (standard conditions), 20°C+30% WHC, 25°C+50% WHC, and 25°C+30% WHC. Survival, reproduction and bioaccumulation of As, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were obtained as endpoints. Reproduction was more sensitive to both climate factors and metal(loid) pollution. High soil salinity (electrical conductivity~3dSm -1 ) and clay texture, even without the presence of high metal(loid) concentrations, affected enchytraeid performance especially at drier conditions (≥80% reduction in reproduction). The toxicity of the agricultural soil increased at drier conditions (10% reduction in EC10 and EC50 values for the effect on enchytraeid reproduction). Changes in enchytraeid performance were accompanied by changes in As, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn bioaccumulation, with lower body concentrations at drier conditions probably due to greater competition with soluble salts in the case of Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn. This study shows that apart from high metal(loid) concentrations other soil properties (e.g. salinity and texture) may be partially responsible for the toxicity of metal(loid)-polluted soils to soil invertebrates, especially under changing climate conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The sensitivity of the atmospheric branch of the global water cycle to temperature fluctuations at synoptic to decadal time-scales in different satellite- and model-based products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Miguel

    2018-02-01

    Spectral analysis of global-mean precipitation, P, evaporation, E, precipitable water, W, and surface temperature, Ts, revealed significant variability from sub-daily to multi-decadal time-scales, superposed on high-amplitude diurnal and yearly peaks. Two distinct regimes emerged from a transition in the spectral exponents, β. The weather regime covering time-scales 1-2 years, while at time-scales global-ocean and full-globe averages, ρDCCA showed large spread of the C-C importance for P and E variability amongst different datasets at multi-year time-scales, ranging from negligible (governing mechanisms.

  11. Gyrokinetic particle-in-cell global simulations of ion-temperature-gradient and collisionless-trapped-electron-mode turbulence in tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jolliet, S.

    2009-02-01

    The goal of thermonuclear fusion research is to provide power plants, that will be able to produce one gigawatt of electricity. Among the different ways to achieve fusion, the tokamak, based on magnetic confinement, is the most promising one. A gas is heated up to hundreds of millions of degrees and becomes a plasma, which is maintained - or confined - in a toroidal vessel by helical magnetic field lines. Then, deuterium and tritium are injected and fuse to create an α particle and an energetic neutron. In order to have a favorable power balance, the power produced by fusion reactions must exceed the power needed to heat the plasma and the power losses. This can be cast in a very simple expression which stipulates that the product of the density, the temperature and the energy confinement time must exceed some given value. Unfortunately, present-days tokamaks are not able to reach this condition, mostly due to plasma turbulence. The latter phenomenon enhances the heat losses and degrades the energy confinement time, which cannot be predicted by analytical theories such as the so-called neoclassical theory in which the heat losses are caused by Coulomb collisions. Therefore, numerical simulations are being developed to model plasma turbulence, mainly caused by the Ion and Electron Temperature-Gradient and the Trapped-Electron-Mode (TEM) instabilities. The plasma is described by a distribution function which evolves according to the Vlasov equation. The electromagnetic fields created by the particles are self-consistently obtained through Maxwell’s equations. The resulting Vlasov-Maxwell system is greatly simplified by using the gyrokinetic theory, which consists, through an appropriate ordering, of eliminating the fast gyromotion (compared to the typical frequency of instabilities). Nevertheless, it is still extremely difficult to solve this system numerically due to the large range of time and spatial scales to be resolved. In this thesis, the Vlasov

  12. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 2 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1982-2008 (NODC Accession Number 0054501)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  13. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 4 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1981-10-31 to 2010-12-31 (NODC Accession 0087989)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  14. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 3 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1982-2009 (NODC Accession 0068999)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  15. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 2 - Global, 4 km Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1982-2008 (NODC Accession 0054501)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  16. The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) Version 1 - Global, 4 km, Sea Surface Temperature and Related Thermal Stress Metrics for 1985-2005 (NODC Accession 0044419)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) is a collection of sea surface temperature (SST) and related thermal stress metrics, developed specifically for...

  17. Influence of Solar Wind on the Global Electric Circuit, and Inferred Effects on Cloud Microphysics, Temperature, and Dynamics in the Troposphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinsley, Brian A.

    2000-11-01

    There are at least three independent ways in which the solar wind modulates the flow of current density (Jz) in the global electric circuit. These are (A) changes in the galactic cosmic ray energy spectrum, (B) changes in the precipitation of relativistic electrons from the magnetosphere, and (C) changes in the ionospheric potential distribution in the polar caps due to magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. The current density J_z flows between the ionosphere and the surface, and as it passes through conductivity gradients it generates space charge concentrations dependent on J_z and the conductivity gradient. The gradients are large at the surfaces of clouds and space charge concentrations of order 1000 to 10,000 elementary charges per cm^3 can be generated at cloud tops. The charge transfers to droplets, many of which are evaporating at the cloud-clear air interface. The charge remains on the residual evaporation nuclei with a lifetime against leakage of order 1000 sec, and for a longer period the nuclei also retain coatings of sulfate and organic compounds adsorbed by the droplet while in the cloud. The charged evaporation nuclei become well mixed with more droplets in many types of clouds with penetrative mixing. The processes of entrainment and evaporation are also efficient for these clouds. The collection of such nuclei by nearby droplets is greatly increased by the electrical attraction between the charge on the particle and the image charge that it creates on the droplet. This process is called electroscavenging. Because the charge on the evaporation nuclei is derived from the original space charge, it depends on J_z, giving a rate of electroscavenging responsive to the solar wind inputs. There may be a number of ways in which the electroscavenging has consequences for weather and climate. One possibility is enhanced production of ice. The charged evaporation nuclei have been found to be good ice forming nuclei because of their coatings, and so in supercooled

  18. GHRSST Level 2P Global Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 on the GCOM-W satellite (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) was launched on 18 May 2012, onboard the Global Change Observation Mission - Water (GCOM-W) satellite developed...

  19. Life stage-specific effects of the fungicide pyrimethanil and temperature on the snail Physella acuta (Draparnaud, 1805) disclose the pitfalls for the aquatic risk assessment under global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seeland, Anne; Albrand, Jennifer; Oehlmann, Jörg; Müller, Ruth

    2013-01-01

    It can be suggested that the combined stress of pesticide pollution and suboptimal temperature influences the sensitivity of life stages of aquatic invertebrates differently. The embryo, juvenile, half- and full-life-cycle toxicity tests performed with the snail Physella acuta at different concentrations (0.06–0.5 or 1.0 mg L −1 ) of the model fungicide pyrimethanil at 15, 20 and 25 °C revealed, that pyrimethanil caused concentration-dependent effects at all test temperatures. Interestingly, the ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil was higher at lower (suboptimal) temperature for embryo hatching and F 1 reproduction, but its ecotoxicity for juvenile growth and F 0 reproduction increased with increasing temperature. The life-stage specific temperature-dependent ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil and the high fungicide susceptibility of the invasive snail clearly demonstrate the complexity of pesticide–temperature interactions and the challenge to draw conclusions for the risk of pesticides under the impact of global climate change. -- Highlights: ► Physella acuta reacts highly sensitively to exposure to pyrimethanil. ► The ecotoxicity of pyrimethanil is life-stage specific. ► Pyrimethanil and temperature stress influenced the development interactively. -- The aquatic risk of pesticides under climate change cannot be adequately assessed by recent strategies for the regular risk assessment of agrochemicals

  20. GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GISTEMP dataset is a global 2x2 gridded temperature anomaly dataset. Temperature data is updated around the middle of every month using current data files from...

  1. Numerical analysis of the impact of the ion threshold, ion stiffness and temperature pedestal on global confinement and fusion performance in JET and in ITER plasmas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baiocchi, B.; Mantica, P.; Tala, T.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the impact of micro-instabilities on the global plasma performance is essential in order to make realistic predictions for relevant tokamak scenarios. The semi-empirical transport model CGM is a useful tool to this scope because it depends explicitly on the threshold and the stiffne...

  2. Quality Assurance statistics for AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.2 L3-Collated (L3C) sea surface temperature in global and selected regions (NODC Accession 0111871)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These quality monitoring data for Pathfinder Version 5.2 (PFV5.2) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are based on the concept of a Rich Inventory developed by the...

  3. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  4. Historical bottle temperature and salinity data collected globally by multiple platforms from 1868 to 1959, submitted by the German Data Center (BSH) (NODC Accession 0071062)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Historical bottle temperature and salinity data from the German data center, Bundesamt fur Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH) in Hamburg. The data contain...

  5. GHRSST Level 2P Gridded Global Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from WindSat polarimetric radiometer on the Coriolis satellite (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains sea surface temperature derived from observations made by the WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)...

  6. Combined oxygen- and carbon-isotope records through the Early Jurassic: multiple global events and two modes of carbon-cycle/temperature coupling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hesselbo, Stephen P.; Korte, Christoph

    2010-01-01

    , to the extent that meaningful comparisons between these events can begin to be made. Here we present new carbon and oxygen isotope data from mollusks (bivalves and belemnites) and brachiopods collected through the marine Early Jurassic succession of NE England, including the Sinemurian-Plienbachian boundary...... GSSP. All materials have been screened by chemical analysis and scanning electron microscopy to check for diagenetic alteration. Analysis of carbon isotopes from marine calcite is supplemented by analysis of carbon-isotope values from fossil wood collected through the same section. It is demonstrated...... that both long-term and short-term carbon-isotope shifts from the UK Early Jurassic represent global changes in carbon cycle balances. The Sinemurian-Pliensbachian boundary event is an event of global significance and shows several similarities to the Toarcian OAE (relative sea-level change, carbon-isotope...

  7. Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Wisser

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Northern peatlands contain a large terrestrial carbon pool that plays an important role in the Earth's carbon cycle. A considerable fraction of this carbon pool is currently in permafrost and is biogeochemically relatively inert; this will change with increasing soil temperatures as a result of climate warming in the 21st century. We use a geospatially explicit representation of peat areas and peat depth from a recently-compiled database and a geothermal model to estimate northern North America soil temperature responses to predicted changes in air temperature. We find that, despite a widespread decline in the areas classified as permafrost, soil temperatures in peatlands respond more slowly to increases in air temperature owing to the insulating properties of peat. We estimate that an additional 670 km3 of peat soils in North America, containing ~33 Pg C, could be seasonally thawed by the end of the century, representing ~20 % of the total peat volume in Alaska and Canada. Warming conditions result in a lengthening of the soil thaw period by ~40 days, averaged over the model domain. These changes have potentially important implications for the carbon balance of peat soils.

  8. Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses - CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions due to land use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa, L.P.; Ribeiro, S.K.; Muylaert, M.S.; Campos, C.P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of how to take into account the anthropogenic contribution to the increase of global temperature, instead of being restricted to the carbon emissions adopted in the Kyoto Protocol on responsibility sharing. It is shown the sensibility of the results to the variation of the parameters from different authors used for simulating the climate response based in the so-called Brazilian Proposal (BP). It is also discussed the methodological and scientific aspects of the BP being discussed by an expert group coordinated by SBSTA/UNFCCC and results of energy sector and land use change contributions by groups of countries. (author)

  9. Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses--CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions due to land use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa, L.P.; Ribeiro, S.K.; Muylaert, M.S.; Pires de Campos, Christiano

    2004-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of how to take into account the anthropogenic contribution to the increase of global temperature, instead of being restricted to the Carbon emissions adopted in the Kyoto Protocol on responsibility sharing. It is shown the sensibility of the results to the variation of the parameters from different authors used for simulating the climate response based in the so-called Brazilian Proposal (BP). It is also discussed the methodological and scientific aspects of the BP being discussed by an expert group coordinated by SBSTA/UNFCCC and results of energy sector and land use change contributions by groups of countries

  10. Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wisser, D.; Marchenko, S.; Talbot, J.; Treat, C.; Frolking, S.

    2011-01-01

    Northern peatlands contain a large terrestrial carbon pool that plays an important role in the Earth’s carbon cycle. A considerable fraction of this carbon pool is currently in permafrost and is biogeochemically relatively inert; this will change with increasing soil temperatures as a result

  11. The effects of temperature, salinity, and the carbonate system on Mg/Ca in Globigerinoides ruber (white): A global sediment trap calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, William R.; Weldeab, Syee; Lea, David W.; Rosenthal, Yair; Gruber, Nicolas; Donner, Barbara; Fischer, Gerhard

    2018-01-01

    The Mg/Ca of planktic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (white) is a widely applied proxy for tropical and sub-tropical sea-surface temperature. The accuracy with which temperature can be reconstructed depends on how accurately relationships between Mg/Ca and temperature and the multiple secondary controls on Mg/Ca are known; however, these relationships remain poorly quantified under oceanic conditions. Here, we present new calibrations based on 440 sediment trap/plankton tow samples from the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, including 130 new samples from the Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Our results indicate temperature, salinity and the carbonate system all significantly influence Mg/Ca in G. ruber (white). We propose two calibration models: The first model assumes pH is the controlling carbonate system parameter. In this model, Mg/Ca has a temperature sensitivity of 6.0 ± 0.8%/°C (2σ), a salinity sensitivity of 3.3 ± 2.2%/PSU and a pH sensitivity of - 8.3 ± 7.7%/0.1 pH units; The second model assumes carbonate ion concentration ([3 2-CO]) is the controlling carbonate system parameter. In this model, Mg/Ca has a temperature sensitivity of 6.7 ± 0.8%/°C, a salinity sensitivity of 5.0 ± 3.0%/PSU and a [3 2-CO] sensitivity of - 0.24 ± 0.11%/μmol kg-1. In both models, the temperature sensitivity is significantly lower than the widely-applied sensitivity of 9.0 ± 0.6%/°C. Application of our new calibrations to down-core data from the Last Glacial Maximum, considering whole ocean changes in salinity and carbonate chemistry, indicate a cooling of 2.4 ± 1.6°C in the tropical oceans if pH is the controlling parameter and 1.5 ± 1.4°C if [3 2-CO] is the controlling parameter.

  12. The Effects of Temperature and Salinity on Mg Incorporation in Planktonic Foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (white): Results from a Global Sediment Trap Mg/Ca Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, W. R.; Weldeab, S.; Lea, D. W.

    2015-12-01

    Mg/Ca in Globigerinoides ruber is arguably the most important proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) in tropical and sub tropical regions, and as such guides our understanding of past climatic change in these regions. However, the sensitivity of Mg/Ca to salinity is debated; while analysis of foraminifera grown in cultures generally indicates a sensitivity of 3 - 6% per salinity unit, core-top studies have suggested a much higher sensitivity of between 15 - 27% per salinity unit, bringing the utility of Mg/Ca as a SST proxy into dispute. Sediment traps circumvent the issues of dissolution and post-depositional calcite precipitation that hamper core-top calibration studies, whilst allowing the analysis of foraminifera that have calcified under natural conditions within a well constrained period of time. We collated previously published sediment trap/plankton tow G. ruber (white) Mg/Ca data, and generated new Mg/Ca data from a sediment trap located in the highly-saline tropical North Atlantic, close to West Africa. Calcification temperature and salinity were calculated for the time interval represented by each trap/tow sample using World Ocean Atlas 2013 data. The resulting dataset comprises >240 Mg/Ca measurements (in the size fraction 150 - 350 µm), that span a temperature range of 18 - 28 °C and 33.6 - 36.7 PSU. Multiple regression of the dataset reveals a temperature sensitivity of 7 ± 0.4% per °C (p < 2.2*10-16) and a salinity sensitivity of 4 ± 1% per salinity unit (p = 2*10-5). Application of this calibration has significant implications for both the magnitude and timing of glacial-interglacial temperature changes when variations in salinity are accounted for.

  13. Estimativa da produtividade de arroz irrigado em função da radiação solar global e da temperatura mínima do ar Rice yield estimates based on global solar radiation and minimum air temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvio Steinmetz

    2013-02-01

    temperature using procedures of linear simple and multiple regression. A field experiment was conducted at the district of Capão do Leão, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, during three growing seasons. Six sowing dates and eight cultivars of distinct groups of cycle lengths were used in each crop season. Ten main culms of each cultivar were marked to determine the main stages of development. The dependent variable (Y was the average grain yield of four repetitions of each sowing date and the independent variables were: the average of global solar radiation (X¹, the average minimum air temperature (X² and the average of squared minimum air temperature (X³, computed for four periods of plant development for global solar radiation and for three periods for minimum air temperature. Most of the variables, when tested isolately, presented a significant linear relationship with grain yield, but the coefficients of determination (r² were higher in multiple linear regressions involving the main variables. Regression models that use global solar radiation and minimum air temperature in distinct physiological periods of plant development as predicting variables, are suitable for estimating grain yields of irrigated rice.

  14. The Role of Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases as Principal LW Control Knob that Governs the Global Surface Temperature for Past and Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacis, Andrew A.; Hansen, James E.; Russell, Gary L.; Oinas, Valdar; Jonas, Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    The climate system of the Earth is endowed with a moderately strong greenhouse effect that is characterized by non-condensing greenhouse gases (GHGs) that provide the core radiative forcing. Of these, the most important is atmospheric CO2. There is a strong feedback contribution to the greenhouse effect by water vapor and clouds that is unique in the solar system, exceeding the core radiative forcing due to the non-condensing GHGs by a factor of three. The significance of the non-condensing GHGs is that once they have been injected into the atmosphere, they remain there virtually indefinitely because they do not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere, their chemical removal time ranging from decades to millennia. Water vapor and clouds have only a short lifespan, with their distribution determined by the locally prevailing meteorological conditions, subject to Clausius-Clapeyron constraint. Although solar irradiance is the ultimate energy source that powers the terrestrial greenhouse effect, there has been no discernible long-term trend in solar irradiance since precise monitoring began in the late 1970s. This leaves atmospheric CO2 as the effective control knob driving the current global warming trend. Over geological time scales, volcanoes are the principal source of atmospheric CO2, and the weathering of rocks is the principal sink, with the biosphere participating as both a source and a sink. The problem at hand is that human industrial activity is causing atmospheric CO2, to increase by 2 ppm per year, whereas the interglacial rate has been 0.005 ppm per year. This is a geologically unprecedented rate to turn the CO2 climate control knob. This is causing the global warming that threatens the global environment.

  15. The role of long-lived greenhouse gases as principal LW control knob that governs the global surface temperature for past and future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew A. Lacis

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The climate system of the Earth is endowed with a moderately strong greenhouse effect that is characterised by non-condensing greenhouse gases (GHGs that provide the core radiative forcing. Of these, the most important is atmospheric CO2. There is a strong feedback contribution to the greenhouse effect by water vapour and clouds that is unique in the solar system, exceeding the core radiative forcing due to the non-condensing GHGs by a factor of three. The significance of the non-condensing GHGs is that once they have been injected into the atmosphere, they remain there virtually indefinitely because they do not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere, their chemical removal time ranging from decades to millennia. Water vapour and clouds have only a short lifespan, with their distribution determined by the locally prevailing meteorological conditions, subject to Clausius–Clapeyron constraint. Although solar irradiance is the ultimate energy source that powers the terrestrial greenhouse effect, there has been no discernable long-term trend in solar irradiance since precise monitoring began in the late 1970s. This leaves atmospheric CO2 as the effective control knob driving the current global warming trend. Over geological time scales, volcanoes are the principal source of atmospheric CO2, and the weathering of rocks is the principal sink, with the biosphere participating as both a source and a sink. The problem at hand is that human industrial activity is causing atmospheric CO2, to increase by 2 ppm yr−1, whereas the interglacial rate has been 0.005 ppm yr−1. This is a geologically unprecedented rate to turn the CO2 climate control knob. This is causing the global warming that threatens the global environment.

  16. The role of long-lived greenhouse gases as principal LW control knob that governs the global surface temperature for past and future climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lacis, Andrew A.; Hansen, James E.; Russell, Gary L.; Oinas, Valdar; Jonas, Jeffrey [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies, New York (United States)], e-mail: Andrew.A.Lacis@nasa.gov

    2013-11-15

    The climate system of the Earth is endowed with a moderately strong greenhouse effect that is characterised by non-condensing greenhouse gases (GHGs) that provide the core radiative forcing. Of these, the most important is atmospheric CO{sub 2}. There is a strong feedback contribution to the greenhouse effect by water vapour and clouds that is unique in the solar system, exceeding the core radiative forcing due to the non-condensing GHGs by a factor of three. The significance of the non-condensing GHGs is that once they have been injected into the atmosphere, they remain there virtually indefinitely because they do not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere, their chemical removal time ranging from decades to millennia. Water vapour and clouds have only a short lifespan, with their distribution determined by the locally prevailing meteorological conditions, subject to Clausius-Clapeyron constraint. Although solar irradiance is the ultimate energy source that powers the terrestrial greenhouse effect, there has been no discern able long-term trend in solar irradiance since precise monitoring began in the late seventies. This leaves atmospheric CO{sub 2} as the effective control knob driving the current global warming trend. Over geological time scales, volcanoes are the principal source of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, and the weathering of rocks is the principal sink, with the biosphere participating as both a source and a sink. The problem at hand is that human industrial activity is causing atmospheric CO{sub 2}, to increase by 2 ppm yr{sup -1}, whereas the interglacial rate has been 0.005 ppm yr{sup -1}. This is a geologically unprecedented rate to turn the CO{sub 2} climate control knob. This is causing the global warming that threatens the global environment.

  17. Delayed CTD and XBT data assembled and submitted by the Canada Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) for the Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Program (GTSPP), dates range from 04-08-1929 to 08-18-2004 (NODC Accession 0001869)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Integrated Science Data Management (ISDM) office processes oceanographic profiles for the world oceans and submits these data to the Global Temperature and...

  18. NOAA Daily 25km Global Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) in situ and AVHRR analysis supplemented with AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.0 climatological SST for inland and coastal pixels, 1981-09-01 through 2010-12-31 (NODC Accession 0071180)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This accession contains the daily 25km global Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) in situ and AVHRR analysis, supplemented with AVHRR Pathfinder...

  19. Characterisation of the transcriptomes of genetically diverse Listeria monocytogenes exposed to hyperosmotic and low temperature conditions reveal global stress-adaptation mechanisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Durack

    Full Text Available The ability of Listeria monocytogenes to adapt to various food and food- processing environments has been attributed to its robustness, persistence and prevalence in the food supply chain. To improve the present understanding of molecular mechanisms involved in hyperosmotic and low-temperature stress adaptation of L. monocytogenes, we undertook transcriptomics analysis on three strains adapted to sub-lethal levels of these stress stimuli and assessed functional gene response. Adaptation to hyperosmotic and cold-temperature stress has revealed many parallels in terms of gene expression profiles in strains possessing different levels of stress tolerance. Gene sets associated with ribosomes and translation, transcription, cell division as well as fatty acid biosynthesis and peptide transport showed activation in cells adapted to either cold or hyperosmotic stress. Repression of genes associated with carbohydrate metabolism and transport as well as flagella was evident in stressed cells, likely linked to activation of CodY regulon and consequential cellular energy conservation.

  20. Nitric acid particles in cold thick ice clouds observed at global scale: Link with lightning, temperature, and upper tropospheric water vapor

    OpenAIRE

    Chepfer , H.; Minnis , P.; Dubuisson , P.; Chiriaco , Marjolaine; Sun-Mack , S.; Rivière , E.D.

    2007-01-01

    International audience; Signatures of nitric acid particles (NAP) in cold thick ice clouds have been derived from satellite observations. Most NAP are detected in the tropics (9 to 20% of clouds with T < 202.5 K). Higher occurrences were found in the rare midlatitudes very cold clouds. NAP occurrence increases as cloud temperature decreases, and NAP are more numerous in January than July. Comparisons of NAP and lightning distributions show that lightning seems to be the main source of the NOx...