The role of zonally asymmetric heating in the vertical and temporal structure of the global scale flow fields during FGGE SOP-1. [First Global Atmospheric Research Program Global Experiment (FGGE); Special Observing Period (SOP)

Science.gov (United States)

Paegle, J.; Kalnay-Rivas, E.; Baker, W. E.

1981-01-01

By examining the vertical structure of the low order spherical harmonics of the divergence and vorticity fields, the relative contribution of tropical and monsoonal circulations upon the global wind fields was estimated. This indicates that the overall flow over North America and the Pacific between January and February is quite distinct both in the lower and upper troposphere. In these longitudes there is a stronger tropical overturning and subtropical jet stream in January than February. The divergent flow reversed between 850 and 200 mb. Poleward rotational flow at upper levels is associated with an equatorward rotational flow at low levels. This suggests that the monsoon and other tropical circulations project more amplitude upon low order (global scale) representations of the flow than do the typical midlatitude circulations and that their structures show conspicuous changes on a time scale of a week or less.

Simulation of Synoptic Scale Circulation Features over Southern Africa Using GCMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Browne, Nana Ama Kum; Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph; Tadross, Mark; Hewitson, Bruce

2009-11-01

Two global models (HadAM3: The Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 and CAM3: The Community Atmospheric model version 3) have been studied regarding their capabilities in reproducing the small scale features over southern Africa compared with the NCEP reanalysis. In this study, geopotential height at 500hPa and 850hPa pressure levels are used to investigate the variability of small scale circulation features over southern Africa. The investigation took into consideration the magnitude of the models standard deviations. Most of the results were linked with rainfall and temperature over the region. It was found that the standardized anomalies in the geopotential height at the 500hPa pressure level are in phase with that of rainfall. In contrast, the standardized anomalies of 850hPa pressure level geopotential height are out of phase with the standardized anomalies of rainfall and temperature. In addition, the models are able to capture the variation in the mean cut-off lows, number of days with deep tropical lows and number of days with Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs) quite well. However, the models could not capture the number of days with temperate lows very well. Generally, the models are able to reproduce the synoptic scale circulation features which are crucial for reliable seasonal forecast over southern Africa. (author)

Global scaling analysis for the pebble bed advanced high temperature reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blandford, E.D.; Peterson, P.F.

2009-01-01

Scaled Integral Effects Test (IET) facilities play a critical role in the design certification process of innovative reactor designs. Best-estimate system analysis codes, which minimize deliberate conservatism, require confirmatory data during the validation process to ensure an acceptable level of accuracy as defined by the regulator. The modular Pebble Bed Advanced High Temperature Reactor (PB-AHTR), with a nominal power output of 900 MWth, is the most recent UC Berkeley design for a liquid fluoride salt cooled, solid fuel reactor. The PB-AHTR takes advantage of technologies developed for gas-cooled high temperature thermal and fast reactors, sodium fast reactors, and molten salt reactors. In this paper, non-dimensional scaling groups and similarity criteria are presented at the global system level for a loss of forced circulation transient, where single-phase natural circulation is the primary mechanism for decay heat removal following a primary pump trip. Due to very large margin to fuel damage temperatures, the peak metal temperature of primary-loop components was identified as the key safety parameter of interest. Fractional Scaling Analysis (FSA) methods were used to quantify the intensity of each transfer process during the transient and subsequently rank them by their relative importance while identifying key sources of distortion between the prototype and model. The results show that the development of a scaling hierarchy at the global system level informs the bottom-up scaling analysis. (author)

Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in northeast Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Sikdar, D. N.; Elsner, J. B.

1985-01-01

Large scale circulation features are presented as related to wet spells over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) during the rainy season (March and April) of 1979. The rainy season season is devided into dry and wet periods, the FGGE and geostationary satellite data was averaged and mean and departure fields of basic variables and cloudiness were studied. Analysis of seasonal mean circulation features show: lowest sea level easterlies beneath upper level westerlies; weak meridional winds; high relative humidity over the Amazon basin and relatively dry conditions over the South Atlantic Ocean. A fluctuation was found in the large scale circulation features on time scales of a few weeks or so over Nordeste and the South Atlantic sector. Even the subtropical High SLP's have large departures during wet episodes, implying a short period oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation.

Sub-scale Inverse Wind Turbine Blade Design Using Bound Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Christopher; Berg, Jonathan

2014-11-01

A goal of the National Rotor Testbed project at Sandia is to design a sub-scale wind turbine blade that has similitude to a modern, commercial size blade. However, a smaller diameter wind turbine operating at the same tip-speed-ratio exhibits a different range of operating Reynolds numbers across the blade span, thus changing the local lift and drag coefficients. Differences to load distribution also affect the wake dynamics and stability. An inverse wind turbine blade design tool has been implemented which uses a target, dimensionless circulation distribution from a full-scale blade to find the chord and twist along a sub-scale blade. In addition, airfoil polar data are interpolated from a few specified span stations leading to a smooth, manufacturable blade. The iterative process perturbs chord and twist, after running a blade element momentum theory code, to reduce the residual sum of the squares between the modeled sub-scale circulation and the target full-scale circulation. It is shown that the converged sub-scale design also leads to performance similarity in thrust and power coefficients. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

NASA/MSFC FY88 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Greg S. (Editor); Leslie, Fred W. (Editor); Arnold, J. E. (Editor)

1989-01-01

Interest in environmental issues and the magnitude of the environmental changes continues. One way to gain more understanding of the atmosphere is to make measurements on a global scale from space. The Earth Observation System is a series of new sensors to measure globally atmospheric parameters. Analysis of satellite data by developing algorithms to interpret the radiance information improves the understanding and also defines requirements for these sensors. One measure of knowledge of the atmosphere lies in the ability to predict its behavior. Use of numerical and experimental models provides a better understanding of these processes. These efforts are described in the context of satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics which examine selected processes important to the global circulation.

Changes in equatorial zonal circulations and precipitation in the context of the global warming and natural modes

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, B. H.; Ha, K. J.

2017-12-01

The strengthening and westward shift of Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is observed during the recent decades. However, the relative roles of global warming and natural variability on the change in PWC unclearly remain. By conducting numerical atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments using the spatial SST patterns in the global warming and natural modes which are obtained by the multi-variate EOF analysis from three variables including precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and divergent zonal wind, we indicated that the westward shift and strengthening of PWC are caused by the global warming SST pattern in the global warming mode and the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like SST pattern in the natural mode. The SST distribution of the Pacific Ocean (PO) has more influence on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations and tropical precipitation than that of the Indian Ocean (IO) and Atlantic Ocean (AO). The change in precipitation is also related to the equatorial zonal circulations variation through the upward and downward motions of the circulations. The IO and AO SST anomalies in the global warming mode can affect on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations, but the influence of PO SST disturbs the Indian Walker circulation and Atlantic Walker circulation changes by the IO and AO. The zonal shift of PWC is found to be highly associated with a zonal gradient of SST over the PO through the idealized numerical AGCM experiments and predictions of CMIP5 models.

Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in north-east Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Sikdar, Dhirendra N.; Elsner, James B.

1987-01-01

Large scale circulation features are presented as related to wet spells over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) during the rainy season (March and April) of 1979. The rainy season is divided into dry and wet periods; the FGGE and geostationary satellite data was averaged; and mean and departure fields of basic variables and cloudiness were studied. Analysis of seasonal mean circulation features show: lowest sea level easterlies beneath upper level westerlies; weak meridional winds; high relative humidity over the Amazon basin and relatively dry conditions over the South Atlantic Ocean. A fluctuation was found in the large scale circulation features on time scales of a few weeks or so over Nordeste and the South Atlantic sector. Even the subtropical High SLPs have large departures during wet episodes, implying a short period oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation.

Linking the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Global Monsoons

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.

2016-02-01

This study tested the hypothesis whether low frequency decadal variability of the South Atlantic meridional heat transport (SAMHT) influences decadal variability of the global monsoons. A multi-century run from a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model is used as basis for the analysis. Our findings indicate that multi-decadal variability of the South Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in modulating atmospheric circulation via interhemispheric changes in Atlantic Ocean heat content. Weaker SAMHT produces anomalous ocean heat divergence over the South Atlantic resulting in negative ocean heat content anomaly about 15 years later. This, in turn, forces a thermally direct anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation in the atmosphere, transporting heat from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) and moisture from the SH to the NH, thereby intensify (weaken) summer (winter) monsoon in the NH and winter (summer) monsoon in the SH. Results also show that anomalous atmospheric eddies, both transient and stationary, transport heat northward in both hemispheres producing eddy heat flux convergence (divergence) in the NH (SH) around 15-30°, reinforcing the anomalous Hadley circulation. Overall, SAMHT decadal variability leads its atmospheric response by about 15 years, suggesting that the South Atlantic is a potential predictor of global climate variability.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

Science.gov (United States)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Synoptic-scale circulation patterns during summer derived from tree rings in mid-latitude Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Seim, Andrea; Schultz, Johannes A.; Leland, Caroline; Davi, Nicole; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Xiaochun; Beck, Christoph; Linderholm, Hans W.; Pederson, Neil

2017-09-01

Understanding past and recent climate and atmospheric circulation variability is vital for regions that are affected by climate extremes. In mid-latitude Asia, however, the synoptic climatology is complex and not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dominant synoptic-scale circulation patterns during the summer season using a multi-species tree-ring width (TRW) network comprising 78 sites from mid-latitude Asia. For each TRW chronology, we calculated an atmospheric circulation tree-ring index (ACTI), based on 1000 hPa geopotential height data, to directly link tree growth to 13 summertime weather types and their associated local climate conditions for the period 1871-1993. Using the ACTI, three groups of similarly responding tree-ring sites can be associated with distinct large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns: 1. growth of drought sensitive trees is positively affected by a cyclone over northern Russia; 2. temperature sensitive trees show positive associations to a cyclone over northwestern Russia and an anticyclone over Mongolia; 3. trees at two high elevation sites show positive relations to a zonal cyclone extending from mid-latitude Eurasia to the West Pacific. The identified synoptic-scale circulation patterns showed spatiotemporal variability in their intensity and position, causing temporally varying climate conditions in mid-latitude Asia. Our results highlight that for regions with less pronounced atmospheric action centers during summer such as the occurrence of large-scale cyclones and anticyclones, synoptic-scale circulation patterns can be extracted and linked to the Northern Hemisphere circulation system. Thus, we provide a new and solid envelope for climate studies covering the past to the future.

Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

Preliminary Study of Single-Phase Natural Circulation for Lab-scaled Molten Salt Application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shin, Yukyung; Kang, Sarah; Kim, In Guk; Seo, Seok Bin; Bang, In Cheol [UNIST, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of); Park, Seong Dae [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

Advanced reactors such as MSR (FHR), VHTR and AHTR utilized molten salt as a coolant for efficiency and safety which has advantages in higher heat capacity, lower pumping power and scale compared to liquid metal. It becomes more necessary to study on the characteristics of molten salt. However, due to several characteristics such as high operating temperature, large-scale facility and preventing solidification, satisfying that condition for study has difficulties. Thus simulant fluid was used with scaling method for lab-scale experiment. Scaled experiment enables simulant fluid to simulate fluid mechanics and heat transfer behavior of molten salt on lower operating temperature and reduced scale. In this paper, as a proof test of the scaled experiment, simplified single-phase natural circulation loop was designed in a lab-scale and applied to the passive safety system in advanced reactor in which molten salt is considered as a major coolant of the system. For the application of the improved safety system, prototype was based on the primary loop of the test-scale DRACS, the main passive safety system in FHR, developed at the OSU. For preliminary experiment, single-phase natural circulation under low power was performed. DOWTHERM A and DOWTHERM RP were selected as simulant candidates. Then, study of feasibility with simulant was conducted based on the scaling law for heat transfer characteristics and geometric parameters. Additionally, simulation with MARS code and ANSYS-CFX with the same condition of natural circulation was carried out as verification. For the accurate code simulation, thermo-physical properties of DOWTHERM A and RP were developed and implemented into MARS code. In this study, single-phase natural circulation experiment was performed with simulant oil, DOWTHERM RP, based on the passive safety system of FHR. Feasibility of similarity experiment for molten salt with oil simulant was confirmed by scaling method. In addition, simulation with two

Impact of small-scale structures on estuarine circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhuo; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Wang, Harry V.; Huang, Hai; Wang, Zhengui; Ye, Fei; Sisson, Mac

2018-05-01

We present a novel and challenging application of a 3D estuary-shelf model to the study of the collective impact of many small-scale structures (bridge pilings of 1 m × 2 m in size) on larger-scale circulation in a tributary (James River) of Chesapeake Bay. We first demonstrate that the model is capable of effectively transitioning grid resolution from 400 m down to 1 m near the pilings without introducing undue numerical artifact. We then show that despite their small sizes and collectively small area as compared to the total channel cross-sectional area, the pilings exert a noticeable impact on the large-scale circulation, and also create a rich structure of vortices and wakes around the pilings. As a result, the water quality and local sedimentation patterns near the bridge piling area are likely to be affected as well. However, when evaluating over the entire waterbody of the project area, the near field effects are weighed with the areal percentage which is small compared to that for the larger unaffected area, and therefore the impact on the lower James River as a whole becomes relatively insignificant. The study highlights the importance of the use of high resolution in assessing the near-field impact of structures.

Scaling Analysis of the Single-Phase Natural Circulation: the Hydraulic Similarity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Xin-Guo; Choi, Ki-Yong

2015-01-01

These passive safety systems all rely on the natural circulation to cool down the reactor cores during an accident. Thus, a robust and accurate scaling methodology must be developed and employed to both assist in the design of a scaled-down test facility and guide the tests in order to mimic the natural circulation flow of its prototype. The natural circulation system generally consists of a heat source, the connecting pipes and several heat sinks. Although many applauding scaling methodologies have been proposed during last several decades, few works have been dedicated to systematically analyze and exactly preserve the hydraulic similarity. In the present study, the hydraulic similarity analyses are performed at both system and local level. By this mean, the scaling criteria for the exact hydraulic similarity in a full-pressure model have been sought. In other words, not only the system-level but also the local-level hydraulic similarities are pursued. As the hydraulic characteristics of a fluid system is governed by the momentum equation, the scaling analysis starts with it. A dimensionless integral loop momentum equation is derived to obtain the dimensionless numbers. In the dimensionless momentum equation, two dimensionless numbers, the dimensionless flow resistance number and the dimensionless gravitational force number, are identified along with a unique hydraulic time scale, characterizing the system hydraulic response. A full-height full-pressure model is also made to see which model among the full-height model and reduced-height model can preserve the hydraulic behavior of the prototype. From the dimensionless integral momentum equation, a unique hydraulic time scale, which characterizes the hydraulic response of a single-phase natural circulation system, is identified along with two dimensionless parameters: the dimensionless flow resistance number and the dimensionless gravitational force number. By satisfying the equality of both dimensionless numbers

Scaling Analysis of the Single-Phase Natural Circulation: the Hydraulic Similarity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Xin-Guo; Choi, Ki-Yong [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

These passive safety systems all rely on the natural circulation to cool down the reactor cores during an accident. Thus, a robust and accurate scaling methodology must be developed and employed to both assist in the design of a scaled-down test facility and guide the tests in order to mimic the natural circulation flow of its prototype. The natural circulation system generally consists of a heat source, the connecting pipes and several heat sinks. Although many applauding scaling methodologies have been proposed during last several decades, few works have been dedicated to systematically analyze and exactly preserve the hydraulic similarity. In the present study, the hydraulic similarity analyses are performed at both system and local level. By this mean, the scaling criteria for the exact hydraulic similarity in a full-pressure model have been sought. In other words, not only the system-level but also the local-level hydraulic similarities are pursued. As the hydraulic characteristics of a fluid system is governed by the momentum equation, the scaling analysis starts with it. A dimensionless integral loop momentum equation is derived to obtain the dimensionless numbers. In the dimensionless momentum equation, two dimensionless numbers, the dimensionless flow resistance number and the dimensionless gravitational force number, are identified along with a unique hydraulic time scale, characterizing the system hydraulic response. A full-height full-pressure model is also made to see which model among the full-height model and reduced-height model can preserve the hydraulic behavior of the prototype. From the dimensionless integral momentum equation, a unique hydraulic time scale, which characterizes the hydraulic response of a single-phase natural circulation system, is identified along with two dimensionless parameters: the dimensionless flow resistance number and the dimensionless gravitational force number. By satisfying the equality of both dimensionless numbers

Adequacy of power-to-volume scaling philosophy to simulate natural circulation in Integral Test Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nayak, A.K.; Vijayan, P.K.; Saha, D.; Venkat Raj, V.; Aritomi, Masanori

1998-01-01

Theoretical and experimental investigations were carried out to study the adequacy of power-to-volume scaling philosophy for the simulation of natural circulation and to establish the scaling philosophy applicable for the design of the Integral Test Facility (ITF-AHWR) for the Indian Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR). The results indicate that a reduction in the flow channel diameter of the scaled facility as required by the power-to-volume scaling philosophy may affect the simulation of natural circulation behaviour of the prototype plants. This is caused by the distortions due to the inability to simulate the frictional resistance of the scaled facility. Hence, it is recommended that the flow channel diameter of the scaled facility should be as close as possible to the prototype. This was verified by comparing the natural circulation behaviour of a prototype 220 MWe Indian PHWR and its scaled facility (FISBE-1) designed based on power-to-volume scaling philosophy. It is suggested from examinations using a mathematical model and a computer code that the FISBE-1 simulates the steady state and the general trend of transient natural circulation behaviour of the prototype reactor adequately. Finally the proposed scaling method was applied for the design of the ITF-AHWR. (author)

The Hamburg large scale geostrophic ocean general circulation model. Cycle 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajewicz, U.

1992-02-01

The rationale for the Large Scale Geostrophic ocean circulation model (LSG-OGCM) is based on the observations that for a large scale ocean circulation model designed for climate studies, the relevant characteristic spatial scales are large compared with the internal Rossby radius throughout most of the ocean, while the characteristic time scales are large compared with the periods of gravity modes and barotropic Rossby wave modes. In the present version of the model, the fast modes have been filtered out by a conventional technique of integrating the full primitive equations, including all terms except the nonlinear advection of momentum, by an implicit time integration method. The free surface is also treated prognostically, without invoking a rigid lid approximation. The numerical scheme is unconditionally stable and has the additional advantage that it can be applied uniformly to the entire globe, including the equatorial and coastal current regions. (orig.)

Breakdown of large-scale circulation in turbulent rotating convection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kunnen, R.P.J.; Clercx, H.J.H.; Geurts, Bernardus J.

2008-01-01

Turbulent rotating convection in a cylinder is investigated both numerically and experimentally at Rayleigh number Ra = $10^9$ and Prandtl number $\\sigma$ = 6.4. In this Letter we discuss two topics: the breakdown under rotation of the domain-filling large-scale circulation (LSC) typical for

Schwarz-Christoffel Conformal Mapping based Grid Generation for Global Oceanic Circulation Models

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Shiming

2015-04-01

We propose new grid generation algorithms for global ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Contrary to conventional, analytical forms based dipolar or tripolar grids, the new algorithm are based on Schwarz-Christoffel (SC) conformal mapping with prescribed boundary information. While dealing with the conventional grid design problem of pole relocation, it also addresses more advanced issues of computational efficiency and the new requirements on OGCM grids arisen from the recent trend of high-resolution and multi-scale modeling. The proposed grid generation algorithm could potentially achieve the alignment of grid lines to coastlines, enhanced spatial resolution in coastal regions, and easier computational load balance. Since the generated grids are still orthogonal curvilinear, they can be readily 10 utilized in existing Bryan-Cox-Semtner type ocean models. The proposed methodology can also be applied to the grid generation task for regional ocean modeling when complex land-ocean distribution is present.

Study on scaling law of PWR natural circulation with motion condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu Donghua; Xiao Zejun; Chen Bingde

2009-01-01

For some nuclear reactors installed on automobiles, boats or deep sea vehicles, it is an important way to investigate their system safety by performing natural circulation experiments under motion condition. This paper studied the natural circulation on moving plants based on work of static natural circulation scaling method. With rigid motion theory, acceleration at each point was obtained on primary system and introduced to momentum equation. Thus a set of motion similar criteria were obtained. Furthermore, equal and unequal height simulation were analyzed. As to the unequal one, non isochronous simulation was needed for displacement and angular acceleration. (authors)

Climatology of the HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model - Sea ice general circulation model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Legutke, S. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

1999-12-01

The HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) climatology, obtained in a long-term forced integration is described. HOPE-G is a primitive-equation z-level ocean model which contains a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. It is formulated on a 2.8 grid with increased resolution in low latitudes in order to better resolve equatorial dynamics. The vertical resolution is 20 layers. The purpose of the integration was both to investigate the models ability to reproduce the observed general circulation of the world ocean and to obtain an initial state for coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea-ice climate simulations. The model was driven with daily mean data of a 15-year integration of the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM4, the atmospheric component in later coupled runs. Thereby, a maximum of the flux variability that is expected to appear in coupled simulations is included already in the ocean spin-up experiment described here. The model was run for more than 2000 years until a quasi-steady state was achieved. It reproduces the major current systems and the main features of the so-called conveyor belt circulation. The observed distribution of water masses is reproduced reasonably well, although with a saline bias in the intermediate water masses and a warm bias in the deep and bottom water of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The model underestimates the meridional transport of heat in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated heat transport in the other basins, though, is in good agreement with observations. (orig.)

Single and two-phase natural circulation in Westinghouse pressurized water reactor simulators: Phenomena, analysis and scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, R.R.; Chapman, J.C.; Kukita, Y.; Motley, F.E.; Stumpf, H.; Chen, Y.S.; Tasaka, K.

1987-01-01

Natural circulation data obtained in the 1/48 scale W four loop PWR simulator - the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF) are discussed and summarized. Core cooling modes, the primary fluid state, the primary loop mass flow and localized natural circulation phenomena occurring in the steam generator are presented. TRAC-PF1 LSTF model (using both a 1 U-tube and a 3 U-tube steam generator model) analyses of the LSTF natural circulation data including the SG recirculation patterns are presented and compared to the data. The LSTF data are then compared to similar natural circulation data obtained in the Primarkreislaufe (PKL) and the Semiscale facilities. Based on the 1/48 to 1/1705 scaling range which exists between the facilities, the implications of these data towrard natural circulation behavior in commercial plants are briefly discussed

Variability in Global-Scale Circulations and Their Impacts on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rosencrans, Matthew J

2006-01-01

... favorable or unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Favorable impacts on tropical Atlantic circulation characteristics are defined by an increase in low-level relative vorticity, a decrease in westerly vertical wind shear, and increased convection...

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Swann, Abigail L S; Fung, Inez Y; Chiang, John C H

2012-01-17

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

Implications of Warm Rain in Shallow Cumulus and Congestus Clouds for Large-Scale Circulations

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijens, Louise; Emanuel, Kerry; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan

2017-11-01

Space-borne observations reveal that 20-40% of marine convective clouds below the freezing level produce rain. In this paper we speculate what the prevalence of warm rain might imply for convection and large-scale circulations over tropical oceans. We present results using a two-column radiative-convective model of hydrostatic, nonlinear flow on a non-rotating sphere, with parameterized convection and radiation, and review ongoing efforts in high-resolution modeling and observations of warm rain. The model experiments investigate the response of convection and circulation to sea surface temperature (SST) gradients between the columns and to changes in a parameter that controls the conversion of cloud condensate to rain. Convection over the cold ocean collapses to a shallow mode with tops near 850 hPa, but a congestus mode with tops near 600 hPa can develop at small SST differences when warm rain formation is more efficient. Here, interactive radiation and the response of the circulation are crucial: along with congestus a deeper moist layer develops, which leads to less low-level radiative cooling, a smaller buoyancy gradient between the columns, and therefore a weaker circulation and less subsidence over the cold ocean. The congestus mode is accompanied with more surface precipitation in the subsiding column and less surface precipitation in the deep convecting column. For the shallow mode over colder oceans, circulations also weaken with more efficient warm rain formation, but only marginally. Here, more warm rain reduces convective tops and the boundary layer depth—similar to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) studies—which reduces the integrated buoyancy gradient. Elucidating the impact of warm rain can benefit from large-domain high-resolution simulations and observations. Parameterizations of warm rain may be constrained through collocated cloud and rain profiling from ground, and concurrent changes in convection and rain in subsiding and convecting branches of

Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

KAUST Repository

Scott, Robert B.; Arbic, Brian K.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Coward, Andrew C.; Maltrud, Mathew; Merryfield, William J.; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Varghese, Anson

2010-01-01

We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between

Multiple states in the late Eocene ocean circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Baatsen, M. L. J.; von der Heydt, A. S.; Kliphuis, M.; Viebahn, J.; Dijkstra, H. A.

2018-04-01

The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) marks a major step within the Cenozoic climate in going from a greenhouse into an icehouse state, with the formation of a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet. The roles of steadily decreasing CO2 concentrations versus changes in ocean circulation at the EOT are still debated and the threshold for Antarctic glaciation is obscured by uncertainties in global geometry. Here, a detailed study of the late Eocene ocean circulation is carried out using an ocean general circulation model under two slightly different geography reconstructions of the middle-to-late Eocene (38 Ma). Using the same atmospheric forcing, both geographies give a profoundly different equilibrium ocean circulation state. The underlying reason for this sensitivity is the presence of multiple equilibria characterised by either North or South Pacific deep water formation. A possible shift from a southern towards a northern overturning circulation would result in significant changes in the global heat distribution and consequently make the Southern Hemisphere climate more susceptible for significant cooling and ice sheet formation on Antarctica.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Global Modeling of Internal Tides Within an Eddying Ocean General Circulation Model

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-31

paper aooo not violate: any Oisclosur~,;·of trade• secrets or suggestions of outside individuals on::oncams whiCh have· beE !n communicated 1.o...fully three- dimensional global ocean circulation model, we will provide an internal tide capability everywhere, and allow nested models to include

Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yuan

2015-01-01

The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

Aerosol-cloud interactions from urban, regional to global scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Yuan [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States). Seismological Lab.

2015-10-01

The studies in this dissertation aim at advancing our scientific understandings about physical processes involved in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction and quantitatively assessing the impacts of aerosols on the cloud systems with diverse scales over the globe on the basis of the observational data analysis and various modeling studies. As recognized in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change, the magnitude of radiative forcing by atmospheric aerosols is highly uncertain, representing the largest uncertainty in projections of future climate by anthropogenic activities. By using a newly implemented cloud microphysical scheme in the cloud-resolving model, the thesis assesses aerosol-cloud interaction for distinct weather systems, ranging from individual cumulus to mesoscale convective systems. This thesis also introduces a novel hierarchical modeling approach that solves a long outstanding mismatch between simulations by regional weather models and global climate models in the climate modeling community. More importantly, the thesis provides key scientific solutions to several challenging questions in climate science, including the global impacts of the Asian pollution. As scientists wrestle with the complexities of climate change in response to varied anthropogenic forcing, perhaps no problem is more challenging than the understanding of the impacts of atmospheric aerosols from air pollution on clouds and the global circulation.

Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, J.

There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.0 0 C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

Scaling a Convection-Resolving RCM to Near-Global Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Chadha, T.; Kwasniewski, G.; Hoefler, T.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Osuna, C.; Schar, C.; Schulthess, T. C.; Vogt, H.

2017-12-01

In the recent years, first decade-long kilometer-scale resolution RCM simulations have been performed on continental-scale computational domains. However, the size of the planet Earth is still an order of magnitude larger and thus the computational implications of performing global climate simulations at this resolution are challenging. We explore the gap between the currently established RCM simulations and global simulations by scaling the GPU accelerated version of the COSMO model to a near-global computational domain. To this end, the evolution of an idealized moist baroclinic wave has been simulated over the course of 10 days with a grid spacing of up to 930 m. The computational mesh employs 36'000 x 16'001 x 60 grid points and covers 98.4% of the planet's surface. The code shows perfect weak scaling up to 4'888 Nodes of the Piz Daint supercomputer and yields 0.043 simulated years per day (SYPD) which is approximately one seventh of the 0.2-0.3 SYPD required to conduct AMIP-type simulations. However, at half the resolution (1.9 km) we've observed 0.23 SYPD. Besides formation of frontal precipitating systems containing embedded explicitly-resolved convective motions, the simulations reveal a secondary instability that leads to cut-off warm-core cyclonic vortices in the cyclone's core, once the grid spacing is refined to the kilometer scale. The explicit representation of embedded moist convection and the representation of the previously unresolved instabilities exhibit a physically different behavior in comparison to coarser-resolution simulations. The study demonstrates that global climate simulations using kilometer-scale resolution are imminent and serves as a baseline benchmark for global climate model applications and future exascale supercomputing systems.

Millennial-scale interaction between ice sheets and ocean circulation during marine isotope stage 100

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masao eOhno

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Waxing/waning of the ice sheets and the associated change in thermohaline circulation have played an important role in global climate change since major continental ice sheets appeared in the northern hemisphere about 2.75 million years ago. In the earliest glacial stages, however, establishment of the linkage between ice sheet development and ocean circulation remain largely unclear. Here we show new high-resolution records of marine isotope stage 100 recovered from deep-sea sediments on the Gardar Drift, in the subpolar North Atlantic. Results of a wide range of analyses clearly reveal the influence of millennial-scale variability in iceberg discharge on ocean surface condition and bottom current variability in the subpolar North Atlantic during marine isotope stage 100. We identified eight events of ice-rafted debris, which occurred mostly with decreases in sea surface temperature and in current components indicating North Atlantic Deep Water. These decreases are interpreted by weakened deep water formation linked to iceberg discharge, similarly to observations from the last glacial period. Dolomite fraction of the ice-rafted events in early MIS 100 like the last glacial Heinrich events suggests massive collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet in North America. At the same time, our early glacial data suggest differences from the last glacial period: absence of 1470-year periodicity in the interactions between ice sheets and ocean, and northerly shift of the ice-rafted debris belt. Our high-resolution data largely improve the picture of ice-sheet/ocean interactions on millennial time scales in the early glacial period after major Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

On unravelling mechanism of interplay between cloud and large scale circulation: a grey area in climate science

Science.gov (United States)

De, S.; Agarwal, N. K.; Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-04-01

The interaction between cloud and large scale circulation is much less explored area in climate science. Unfolding the mechanism of coupling between these two parameters is imperative for improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and to reduce imprecision in climate sensitivity of global climate model. This work has made an effort to explore this mechanism with CFSv2 climate model experiments whose cloud has been modified by changing the critical relative humidity (CRH) profile of model during ISM. Study reveals that the variable CRH in CFSv2 has improved the nonlinear interactions between high and low frequency oscillations in wind field (revealed as internal dynamics of monsoon) and modulates realistically the spatial distribution of interactions over Indian landmass during the contrasting monsoon season compared to the existing CRH profile of CFSv2. The lower tropospheric wind error energy in the variable CRH simulation of CFSv2 appears to be minimum due to the reduced nonlinear convergence of error to the planetary scale range from long and synoptic scales (another facet of internal dynamics) compared to as observed from other CRH experiments in normal and deficient monsoons. Hence, the interplay between cloud and large scale circulation through CRH may be manifested as a change in internal dynamics of ISM revealed from scale interactive quasi-linear and nonlinear kinetic energy exchanges in frequency as well as in wavenumber domain during the monsoon period that eventually modify the internal variance of CFSv2 model. Conversely, the reduced wind bias and proper modulation of spatial distribution of scale interaction between the synoptic and low frequency oscillations improve the eastward and northward extent of water vapour flux over Indian landmass that in turn give feedback to the realistic simulation of cloud condensates attributing improved ISM rainfall in CFSv2.

A global mean dynamic topography and ocean circulation estimation using a preliminary GOCE gravity model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Per; Bingham, R.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

2011-01-01

The Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite mission measures Earth’s gravity field with an unprecedented accuracy at short spatial scales. In doing so, it promises to significantly advance our ability to determine the ocean’s general circulation. In this study, an ini...

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Condron, Alan [Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States); Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)

2017-09-30

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.

A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Abraham, N. Luke; Maycock, Amanda C.; Braesicke, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Joshi, Manoj M.; Osprey, Annette; Pyle, John A.

2014-01-01

State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever1. Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations1,2. Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies1,2 in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks3-5. PMID:25729440

The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

Science.gov (United States)

Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

1996-01-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

Reduced scaling of thermal-hydraulic circuits for studies of PWR reactors natural circulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botelho, D.A.

1993-01-01

The Ishii et al. hydrodynamic similarity criteria for natural circulation were used for scaling reduced models of prototype passive residual heat removal system of a 600 M We PWR. The physical scales of the thermohydraulic parameters obtained presented a reasonable agreement when compared with simplified analytic models of the systems. (author)

Tracing global biogeochemical cycles and meridional overturning circulation using chromophoric dissolved organic matter

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Norman B.; Siegel, David A.; Carlson, Craig A.; Swan, Chantal M.

2010-02-01

Basin-scale distributions of light absorption by chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) are positively correlated (R2 > 0.8) with apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) within the top kilometer of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. However, a much weaker correspondence is found for the Atlantic (R2 organic matter from sinking particles. The observed meridional-depth sections of CDOM result from a balance between biogeochemical processes (autochthonous production and solar bleaching) and the meridional overturning circulation. Rapid mixing in the Atlantic dilutes CDOM in the interior and implies that the time scale for CDOM accumulation is greater than ˜50 years. CDOM emerges as a unique tracer for diagnosing changes in biogeochemistry and the overturning circulation, similar to dissolved oxygen, with the additional feature that it can be quantified from satellite observation.

Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

Science.gov (United States)

Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

2015-04-01

In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach

The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM): using scaling to forecast global-scale macroweather from months to decades

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

2015-09-01

On scales of ≈ 10 days (the lifetime of planetary-scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high-frequency weather to low-frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; thus, in GCM (general circulation model) macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high-frequency noise. However, neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developed that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two-parameter model can perform as well as GCMs for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the large stochastic memories that we quantify. Since macroweather temporal (but not spatial) intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM). SLIMM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equation, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the linear inverse modelling - LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes that there is no low-frequency memory, SLIMM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner, notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful stochastic forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low-frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had disappointing results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent

Global scale groundwater flow model

Science.gov (United States)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

Science.gov (United States)

Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

2018-04-01

Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

Regional-scale relationships between aerosol and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Soon-Chang; Kim, Sang-Woo; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

2010-08-01

We investigated the regional-scale relationships between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the regional-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anticyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies in July over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115°E and 30-35°N and by 120-140°E and 35-40°N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

Estimate of the largest Lyapunov characteristic exponent of a high dimensional atmospheric global circulation model: a sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guerrieri, A.

2009-01-01

In this report the largest Lyapunov characteristic exponent of a high dimensional atmospheric global circulation model of intermediate complexity has been estimated numerically. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out by varying the equator-to-pole temperature difference, the space resolution and the value of some parameters employed by the model. Chaotic and non-chaotic regimes of circulation have been found. [it

The effect of global-scale divergent circulation on the atmospheric water vapor transport and maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Tsing-Chang

1988-01-01

The detection, distribution, and dynamics of atmospheric water on Earth was examined. How the high levels of water vapor and precipitation that occur over the tropics during the monsoon season result from the development of a strong divergent atmospheric circulation is discussed.

Identification of circulating miRNA biomarkers based on global quantitative real-time PCR profiling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kang Kang

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract MicroRNAs (miRNAs are small noncoding RNAs (18-25 nucleotides that regulate gene expression at the post-transcriptional level. Recent studies have demonstrated the presence of miRNAs in the blood circulation. Deregulation of miRNAs in serum or plasma has been associated with many diseases including cancers and cardiovascular diseases, suggesting the possible use of miRNAs as diagnostic biomarkers. However, the detection of the small amount of miRNAs found in serum or plasma requires a method with high sensitivity and accuracy. Therefore, the current study describes polymerase chain reaction (PCR-based methods for measuring circulating miRNAs. Briefly, the procedure involves four major steps: (1 sample collection and preparation; (2 global miRNAs profiling using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR; (3 data normalization and analysis; and (4 selection and validation of miRNA biomarkers. In conclusion, qRT-PCR is a promising method for profiling of circulating miRNAs as biomarkers.

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, AND CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orbita Roswintiarti

2008-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the quantitative estimates of the effect of large-scale circulations on the sea surface temperature (SST-tropical convection relationship and the effect of SST on the large-scale circulation-convection relationship over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans are presented. Although convection tends to maximize at warm SSTs, increased deep convection is also determined by the divergence (DIV associated with large-scale circulation. An analysis of the relationship between SST and deep convection shows that under subsidence and clear conditions, there is a decrease in convection or increase in Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR at a maximum rate of 3.4 Wm-2 °C-1. In the SST range of 25°C to 29.5°C, a large increase in deep convection (decrease in OLR occurs in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The OLR reduction is found to be a strong function of the large-scale circulation in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Under a weak large-scale circulation, the rate of OLR reduction is about    -3.5 Wm-2 °C-1 to -8.1 Wm-2 °C-1. Under the influence of strong rising motions, the rate can increase to about -12.5 Wm-2 °C-1 for the same SST range. The overall relationship between large-scale circulation and deep convection is nearly linear. A maximum rate of OLR reduction with respect to DIV is -6.1 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1 in the western Pacific Ocean. It is also found that the DIV-OLR relationship is less dependent on SST. For example, the rate of OLR reduction over the western Pacific Ocean for 26°C < SST £ 27°C is -4.2 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1, while that for 28°C < SST £ 29°C is  -5.1 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1. These results are expected to have a great importance for climate feedback mechanisms associated with clouds and SST and for climate predictability.

Wind directions predicted from global circulation models and wind directions determined from eolian sandstones of the western United States-A comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Parrish, Judith T.; Peterson, F.

1988-01-01

Wind directions for Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic time are predicted from global circulation models for the western United States. These predictions are compared with paleowind directions interpreted from eolian sandstones of Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic age. Predicted regional wind directions correspond with at least three-quarters of the paleowind data from the sandstones; the rest of the data may indicate problems with correlation, local effects of paleogeography on winds, and lack of resolution of the circulation models. The data and predictions suggest the following paleoclimatic developments through the time interval studied: predominance of winter subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Late Pennsylvanian; predominance of summer subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Permian; predominance of summer monsoonal circulation in the Triassic and earliest Jurassic; and, during the remainder of the Jurassic, influence of both summer subtropical and summer monsoonal circulation, with the boundary between the two systems over the western United States. This sequence of climatic changes is largely owing to paleogeographic changes, which influenced the buildup and breakdown of the monsoonal circulation, and possibly owing partly to a decrease in the global temperature gradient, which might have lessened the influence of the subtropical high-pressure circulation. The atypical humidity of Triassic time probably resulted from the monsoonal circulation created by the geography of Pangaea. This circulation is predicted to have been at a maximum in the Triassic and was likely to have been powerful enough to draw moisture along the equator from the ocean to the west. ?? 1988.

The Dynamics of Hadley Circulation Variability and Change

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Nicholas Alexander

The Hadley circulation exerts a dominant control on the surface climate of earth's tropical belt. Its converging surface winds fuel the tropical rains, while subsidence in the subtropics dries and stabilizes the atmosphere, creating deserts on land and stratocumulus decks over the oceans. Because of the strong meridional gradients in temperature and precipitation in the subtropics, any shift in the Hadley circulation edge could project as major changes in surface climate. While climate model simulations predict an expansion of the Hadley cells in response to greenhouse gas forcings, the mechanisms remain elusive. An analysis of the climatology, variability, and response of the Hadley circulation to radiative forcings in climate models and reanalyses illuminates the broader landscape in which Hadley cell expansion is realized. The expansion is a fundamental response of the atmosphere to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as it scales with other key climate system changes, including polar amplification, increasing static stability, stratospheric cooling, and increasing global-mean surface temperatures. Multiple measures of the Hadley circulation edge latitudes co-vary with the latitudes of the eddy-driven jets on all timescales, and both exhibit a robust poleward shift in response to forcings. Further, across models there is a robust coupling between the eddy-driving on the Hadley cells and their width. On the other hand, the subtropical jet and tropopause break latitudes, two common observational proxies for the tropical belt edges, lack a strong statistical relationship with the Hadley cell edges and have no coherent response to forcings. This undermines theories for the Hadley cell width predicated on angular momentum conservation and calls for a new framework for understanding Hadley cell expansion. A numerical framework is developed within an idealized general circulation model to isolate the mean flow and eddy responses of the global atmosphere to

NASA/MSFC FY90 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie, Fred W. (Editor)

1990-01-01

Research supported by the Global Atmospheric Research Program at the Marshall Space Flight Center on atmospheric remote sensing, meteorology, numerical weather forecasting, satellite data analysis, cloud precipitation, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric models and related topics is discussed.

Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pinky Langat

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally.

Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Langat, Pinky; Bowden, Thomas A.; Edwards, Stephanie; Gall, Astrid; Rambaut, Andrew; Daniels, Rodney S.; Russell, Colin A.; Pybus, Oliver G.; McCauley, John

2017-01-01

The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally. PMID:29284042

Atlas of the global distribution of atmospheric heating during the global weather experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

1991-01-01

Global distributions of atmospheric heating for the annual cycle of the Global Weather Experiment are estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Level 3b data set. Distributions of monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged heating are presented for isentropic and isobaric layers within the troposphere and for the troposphere as a whole. The distributions depict a large-scale structure of atmospheric heating that appears spatially and temporally consistent with known features of the global circulation and the seasonal evolution.

Global Geodetic Observing System: meeting the requirements of a global society on a changing planet in 2020

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Plag, Hans-Peter, 1952; Pearlman, Michael

2009-01-01

..., Earth Observation on a global scale is at the heart of GGOS's activities, which contributes to Global Change research through the monitoring, as well as the modeling, of dynamic Earth processes such as, for example, mass and angular momentum exchanges, mass transport and ocean circulation, and changes in sea, land and ice surfaces. To achieve such a...

Scaling of the steady state and stability behaviour of single and two-phase natural circulation systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vijayan, P.K.; Nayak, A.K.; Bade, M.H.; Kumar, N.; Saha, D.; Sinha, R.K.

2002-01-01

Scaling methods for both single-phase and two-phase natural circulation systems have been presented. For single-phase systems, simulation of the steady state flow can be achieved by preserving just one nondimensional parameter. For uniform diameter two-phase systems also, it is possible to simulate the steady state behaviour with just one non-dimensional parameter. Simulation of the stability behaviour requires geometric similarity in addition to the similarity of the physical parameters appearing in the governing equations. The scaling laws proposed have been tested with experimental data in case of single-phase natural circulation. (author)

Effect of ocean gateways on the global ocean circulation in the late Oligocene and early Miocene

NARCIS (Netherlands)

von der Heydt, A.S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/245567526; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467

2006-01-01

We investigate the effect of changes in the tectonic boundary conditions on global ocean circulation patterns. Using a fully coupled climate model in an idealized setup, we compare situations corresponding to the late Oligocene, the early Miocene, and present day. The model results show the

Plurilingual reading practices in a global context: Circulation of books and linguistic inequalities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Rivière

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Media consumption is commonly seen as a major way of appropriating languages and cultures. Availability and accessibility of material are essential conditions for developing plurilingual cultural practices. Transnational circulation of cultural goods has reached a particular intensity in today’s world but is still marked by deep language inequalities. Combining sociolinguistic, language education, cultural sociology, and multiliteracy approaches, this study examines how plurilingual readers access books in their different languages. This qualitative analysis is based on 24 in-depth interviews with both migrant and non-migrant adults living in Western Europe. The findings indicate that printed and digital books in dominant languages circulate more easily, and through more visible and formal channels than books in dominated languages. In addition, the local and online book supply in dominant languages is generally cheaper and more varied, thus being more attractive. However, a wider range of means of access to books, and the active participation of the readers themselves in the circulation of cultural goods enable book-reading practices in less disseminated languages. Pedagogical recommendations for language teachers to encourage autonomous cultural practices among learners according to global evolutions and local specificities are provided.

Sino-Danish Brain Circulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bertelsen, Rasmus Gjedssø; Du, Xiangyun; Søndergaard, Morten Karnøe

2014-01-01

China is faced with urgent needs to develop an economically and environmentally sustainable economy based on innovation and knowledge. Brain circulation and research and business investments from the outside are central for this development. Sino-American brain circulation and research...... and investment by overseas researchers and entrepreneurs are well described. In that case, the US is the center of global R&D and S&T. However, the brain circulation and research and investments between a small open Scandinavian economy, such as Denmark, and the huge developing economy of China are not well...... understood. In this case, Denmark is very highly developed, but a satellite in the global R&D and S&T system. With time and the growth of China as a R&D and S&T power house, both Denmark and China will benefit from brain circulation between them. Such brain circulation is likely to play a key role in flows...

The carbon cycle in a land surface model: modelling, validation and implementation at a global scale; Cycle du carbone dans un modele de surface continentale: modelisation, validation et mise en oeuvre a l'echelle globale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibelin, A L

2007-05-15

ISBA-A-gs is an option of the CNRM land surface model ISBA which allows for the simulation of carbon exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The model was implemented for the first time at the global scale as a stand-alone model. Several global simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes and Leaf Area Index to a doubling of the CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentration, and to the climate change simulated by the end of the 21. century. In addition, a new option of ISBA, referred to as ISBA-CC, was developed in order to simulate a more detailed ecosystem respiration by separating the autotrophic respiration and the heterotrophic respiration. The vegetation dynamics and the carbon fluxes were validated at a global scale using satellite datasets, and at a local scale using data from 26 sites of the FLUXNET network. All these results show that the model is sufficiently realistic to be coupled with a general circulation model, in order to account for interactions between the terrestrial biosphere, the atmosphere and the carbon cycle. (author)

Laser anemometry measurements of natural circulation flow in a scale model PWR system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kadambi, J.R.; Schneider, S.J.

1990-01-01

This paper reports on experimental studies conducted to investigate the natural circulation of a single-phase fluid in a scale model pressurized water reactor system during a postulated degraded core accident. A half-section of a 1/7 scale model with a plexiglass adiabatic window was used. Water and sulfurhexafluoride (SF 6 ) were used as the fluid. Laser-Doppler anemometry (LDA) was used in marking the velocity measurements along the center plane of the model at five elevations

Diurnal circulations and their multi-scale interaction leading to rainfall over the South China Sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal monsoon westerly wind bursts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Myung-Sook; Elsberry, Russell L. [Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Meteorology, Monterey, CA (United States); Ho, Chang-Hoi [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jinwon [University of California in Los Angeles, Department of Meteorology, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2011-10-15

The morning diurnal precipitation maximum over the coastal sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal westerly wind bursts is examined from observations and numerical model simulations. A well-defined case of precipitation and large-scale circulation over the coastal sea west of the Philippines during 17-27 June 2004 is selected as a representative case. The hypothesis is that the mesoscale diurnal circulation over the Philippines and a large-scale diurnal circulation that is induced by large-scale differential heating over Asian continent and the surrounding ocean interact to produce the offshore precipitation maximum during the morning. Three-hourly combined satellite microwave and infrared rainfall retrievals define the morning rainfall peak during this period, and then later the stratiform rain area extends toward the open sea. A control numerical simulation in which a grid-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) is applied to force the large-scale diurnal circulation represents reasonably well the morning rainfall maximum. An enhanced low-level convergence similar to observations is simulated due to the interaction of the local- and large-scale diurnal circulations. The essential role of the local-scale diurnal circulation is illustrated in a sensitivity test in which the solar zenith angle is fixed at 7 am to suppress this diurnal circulation. The implication for climate diagnosis or modeling of such upstream coastal sea precipitation maxima is that the diurnal variations of both the local- and the large-scale circulations must be taken into consideration. (orig.)

Natural circulation in a scaled PWR integral test facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiang, R.L.; Jeuck, P.R. III

1987-01-01

Natural circulation is an important mechanism for cooling a nuclear power plant under abnormal operating conditions. To study natural circulation, we modeled a type of pressurized water reactor (PWR) that incorporates once-through steam generators. We conducted tests of single-phase natural circulations, two-phase natural circulations, and a boiler condenser mode. Because of complex geometry, the natural circulations observed in this facility exhibit some phenomena not commonly seen in a simple thermosyphon loop

Globalizing Lessons Learned from Regional-scale Observatories

Science.gov (United States)

Glenn, S. M.

2016-02-01

The Mid Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS) has accumulated a decade of experience designing, building and operating a Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). MARACOOS serves societal goals and supports scientific discovery at the scale of a Large Marine Ecosystem (LME). Societal themes include maritime safety, ecosystem decision support, coastal inundation, water quality and offshore energy. Scientific results that feed back on societal goals with better products include improved understanding of seasonal transport pathways and their impact on phytoplankton blooms and hypoxia, seasonal evolution of the subsurface Mid Atlantic Cold Pool and its impact on fisheries, biogeochemical transformations in coastal plumes, coastal ocean evolution and impact on hurricane intensities, and storm sediment transport pathways. As the global ocean observing requirements grow to support additional societal needs for information on fisheries and aquaculture, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, water quality and offshore development, global observing will necessarily evolve to include more coastal observations and forecast models at the scale of the world's many LMEs. Here we describe our efforts to share lessons learned between the observatory operators at the regional-scale of the LMEs. Current collaborators are spread across Europe, and also include Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and South Africa. Specific examples include the development of a world standard QA/QC approach for HF Radar data that will foster the sharing of data between countries, basin-scale underwater glider missions between internationally-distributed glider ports to developed a shared understanding of operations and an ongoing evaluation of the global ocean models in which the regional models for the LME will be nested, and joint training programs to develop the distributed teams of scientists and technicians

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

The carbon cycle in a land surface model: modelling, validation and implementation at a global scale; Cycle du carbone dans un modele de surface continentale: modelisation, validation et mise en oeuvre a l'echelle globale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibelin, A.L

2007-05-15

ISBA-A-gs is an option of the CNRM land surface model ISBA which allows for the simulation of carbon exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The model was implemented for the first time at the global scale as a stand-alone model. Several global simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes and Leaf Area Index to a doubling of the CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentration, and to the climate change simulated by the end of the 21. century. In addition, a new option of ISBA, referred to as ISBA-CC, was developed in order to simulate a more detailed ecosystem respiration by separating the autotrophic respiration and the heterotrophic respiration. The vegetation dynamics and the carbon fluxes were validated at a global scale using satellite datasets, and at a local scale using data from 26 sites of the FLUXNET network. All these results show that the model is sufficiently realistic to be coupled with a general circulation model, in order to account for interactions between the terrestrial biosphere, the atmosphere and the carbon cycle. (author)

Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Koster, Randal D.

1999-01-01

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

Large-scale connection between aerosol optical depth and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sang-Woo; Yoon, Soon-Chang; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

2010-05-01

We investigated the large-scale connection between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the large-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anti-cyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115E and 30-35N and by 120-140E and 35-40N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

Globalization: Ecological consequences of global-scale connectivity in people, resources and information

Science.gov (United States)

Globalization is a phenomenon affecting all facets of the Earth System. Within the context of ecological systems, it is becoming increasingly apparent that global connectivity among terrestrial systems, the atmosphere, and oceans is driving many ecological dynamics at finer scales and pushing thresh...

Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2015-04-01

Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

Investigations of radial electric field and global circulation layer in limiter tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zagorski, R.; Gerhauser, H.; Lehnen, M.; Loarer, T.

2002-01-01

An updated version of the 2D multifluid code TECXY is used to study the radial electric field structure and the appearance of a global circulation layer (GCL) inside the separatrix of the limiter tokamaks TEXTOR-94 and Tore-Supra-CIEL. The dependence of the driving forces on device geometry, limiter position, magnetic field orientation, impurity content and other parameters is investigated. The centrifugal force in the vicinity of the limiter head always determines the direction of the poloidal velocity in the GCL. There is good agreement with experimentally measured profiles of the poloidal velocity at the TEXTOR low field side. (orig.)

A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

Science.gov (United States)

de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2015-02-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

Multi-Scale Models for the Scale Interaction of Organized Tropical Convection

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Qiu

Assessing the upscale impact of organized tropical convection from small spatial and temporal scales is a research imperative, not only for having a better understanding of the multi-scale structures of dynamical and convective fields in the tropics, but also for eventually helping in the design of new parameterization strategies to improve the next-generation global climate models. Here self-consistent multi-scale models are derived systematically by following the multi-scale asymptotic methods and used to describe the hierarchical structures of tropical atmospheric flows. The advantages of using these multi-scale models lie in isolating the essential components of multi-scale interaction and providing assessment of the upscale impact of the small-scale fluctuations onto the large-scale mean flow through eddy flux divergences of momentum and temperature in a transparent fashion. Specifically, this thesis includes three research projects about multi-scale interaction of organized tropical convection, involving tropical flows at different scaling regimes and utilizing different multi-scale models correspondingly. Inspired by the observed variability of tropical convection on multiple temporal scales, including daily and intraseasonal time scales, the goal of the first project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle on the planetary-scale circulation such as the Hadley cell. As an extension of the first project, the goal of the second project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In the third project, the goals are to simulate the baroclinic aspects of the ITCZ breakdown and assess its upscale impact on the planetary-scale circulation over the eastern Pacific. These simple multi-scale models should be useful to understand the scale interaction of organized tropical convection and help improve the parameterization of unresolved processes in global climate models.

Scaling behaviour of the global tropopause

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Varotsos

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis is applied to the time series of the global tropopause height derived from the 1980–2004 daily radiosonde data, in order to detect long-range correlations in its time evolution.

Global tropopause height fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time intervals in a power-law fashion. The exponent of this dependence is larger in the tropics than in the middle and high latitudes in both hemispheres. Greater persistence is observed in the tropopause of the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. A plausible physical explanation of the fact that long-range correlations in tropopause variability decreases with increasing latitude is that the column ozone fluctuations (that are closely related with the tropopause ones exhibit long range correlations, which are larger in tropics than in the middle and high latitudes at long time scales.

This finding for the tropopause height variability should reduce the existing uncertainties in assessing the climatic characteristics. More specifically the reliably modelled values of a climatic variable (i.e. past and future simulations must exhibit the same scaling behaviour with that possibly existing in the real observations of the variable under consideration. An effort has been made to this end by applying the detrended fluctuation analysis to the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature anomalies during the period January 1850–August 2008. The result obtained supports the findings presented above, notably: the correlations between the fluctuations in the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature display scaling behaviour which must characterizes any projection.

Bottom water circulation in Cascadia Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Hautala, Susan L.; Paul Johnson, H.; Hammond, Douglas E.

2009-10-01

A combination of beta spiral and minimum length inverse methods, along with a compilation of historical and recent high-resolution CTD data, are used to produce a quantitative estimate of the subthermocline circulation in Cascadia Basin. Flow in the North Pacific Deep Water, from 900-1900 m, is characterized by a basin-scale anticyclonic gyre. Below 2000 m, two water masses are present within the basin interior, distinguished by different potential temperature-salinity lines. These water masses, referred to as Cascadia Basin Bottom Water (CBBW) and Cascadia Basin Deep Water (CBDW), are separated by a transition zone at about 2400 m depth. Below the depth where it freely communicates with the broader North Pacific, Cascadia Basin is renewed by northward flow through deep gaps in the Blanco Fracture Zone that feeds the lower limb of a vertical circulation cell within the CBBW. Lower CBBW gradually warms and returns to the south at lighter density. Isopycnal layer renewal times, based on combined lateral and diapycnal advective fluxes, increase upwards from the bottom. The densest layer, existing in the southeast quadrant of the basin below ˜2850 m, has an advective flushing time of 0.6 years. The total volume flushing time for the entire CBBW is 2.4 years, corresponding to an average water parcel residence time of 4.7 years. Geothermal heating at the Cascadia Basin seafloor produces a characteristic bottom-intensified temperature anomaly and plays an important role in the conversion of cold bottom water to lighter density within the CBBW. Although covering only about 0.05% of the global seafloor, the combined effects of bottom heat flux and diapycnal mixing within Cascadia Basin provide about 2-3% of the total required global input to the upward branch of the global thermohaline circulation.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

2015-01-01

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

Science.gov (United States)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

2018-03-01

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

Sustaining observations of the unsteady ocean circulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Frajka-Williams, E

2014-09-28

Sustained observations of ocean properties reveal a global warming trend and rising sea levels. These changes have been documented by traditional ship-based measurements of ocean properties, whereas more recent Argo profiling floats and satellite records permit estimates of ocean changes on a near real-time basis. Through these and newer methods of observing the oceans, scientists are moving from quantifying the 'state of the ocean' to monitoring its variability, and distinguishing the physical processes bringing signals of change. In this paper, I give a brief overview of the UK contributions to the physical oceanographic observations, and the role they have played in the wider global observing systems. While temperature and salinity are the primary measurements of physical oceanography, new transbasin mooring arrays also resolve changes in ocean circulation on daily timescales. Emerging technologies permit routine observations at higher-than-ever spatial resolutions. Following this, I then give a personal perspective on the future of sustained observations. New measurement techniques promise exciting discoveries concerning the role of smaller scales and boundary processes in setting the large-scale ocean circulation and the ocean's role in climate. The challenges now facing the scientific community include sustaining critical observations in the case of funding system changes or shifts in government priorities. These long records will enable a determination of the role and response of the ocean to climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

Science.gov (United States)

Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.; Braconnot, Pascale; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kang, Sarah M.; Mapes, Brian E.; Scheff, Jacob; Schumacher, Courtney; Sobel, Adam H.; Xie, Shang-Ping

2018-06-01

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

Seasonal distributions of diabatic heating during the First GARP Global Experiment

OpenAIRE

Ying Wei, Ming; Johnson, Donald R.; Townsend, Ronald D.

2011-01-01

The seasonal and annual global distributions of diabatic heating during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) are estimated using the isentropic mass continuity equation. The data used are from the FGGE Level IIIa analyses generated by the United States National Meteorological Center. Spatially and temporally coherent diabatic heating distributions are obtained from the isentropic planetary scale mass circulation that is forced by large-scale heat sources and sinks. The diabatic heating in...

Evaluating the effects of terrestrial ecosystems, climate and carbon dioxide on weathering over geological time: a global-scale process-based approach

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Lyla L.; Banwart, Steve A.; Valdes, Paul J.; Leake, Jonathan R.; Beerling, David J.

2012-01-01

Global weathering of calcium and magnesium silicate rocks provides the long-term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on a timescale of millions of years by causing precipitation of calcium carbonates on the seafloor. Catchment-scale field studies consistently indicate that vegetation increases silicate rock weathering, but incorporating the effects of trees and fungal symbionts into geochemical carbon cycle models has relied upon simple empirical scaling functions. Here, we describe the development and application of a process-based approach to deriving quantitative estimates of weathering by plant roots, associated symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi and climate. Our approach accounts for the influence of terrestrial primary productivity via nutrient uptake on soil chemistry and mineral weathering, driven by simulations using a dynamic global vegetation model coupled to an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model of the Earth's climate. The strategy is successfully validated against observations of weathering in watersheds around the world, indicating that it may have some utility when extrapolated into the past. When applied to a suite of six global simulations from 215 to 50 Ma, we find significantly larger effects over the past 220 Myr relative to the present day. Vegetation and mycorrhizal fungi enhanced climate-driven weathering by a factor of up to 2. Overall, we demonstrate a more realistic process-based treatment of plant fungal–geosphere interactions at the global scale, which constitutes a first step towards developing ‘next-generation’ geochemical models. PMID:22232768

A global mean ocean circulation estimation using goce gravity models - the DTU12MDT mean dynamic topography model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

2012-01-01

The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, a newer gravity model have been...... combined with the DTU10MSS mean sea surface model to construct a global mean dynamic topography model named DTU10MDT. The results of preliminary analyses using preliminary GOCE gravity models clearly demonstrated the potential of GOCE mission. Both the resolution and the estimation of the surface currents...... have been improved significantly compared to results obtained using pre-GOCE gravity field models. The results of this study show that geostrophic surface currents associated with the mean circulation have been further improved and that currents having speeds down to 5 cm/s have been recovered....

Adaptation of a general circulation model to ocean dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, R. E.; Rees, T. H.; Woodbury, G. E.

1976-01-01

A primitive-variable general circulation model of the ocean was formulated in which fast external gravity waves are suppressed with rigid-lid surface constraint pressires which also provide a means for simulating the effects of large-scale free-surface topography. The surface pressure method is simpler to apply than the conventional stream function models, and the resulting model can be applied to both global ocean and limited region situations. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are also presented.

Isotopes as tracers of the oceanic circulation: Results from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schlosser, P.; Jenkins, W.J.; Key, R.; Lupton, J.

2002-01-01

During the past decades, natural and anthropogenic isotopes such as tritium ( 3 H), radiocarbon ( 14 C), 3 He, or the stable isotopes of water have been used in studies of the dynamics of natural systems. Early applications of tracers to studies of the ocean were directed at determination of circulation patterns and mean residence times of specific water masses, as well as estimates of mixing coefficients. These exploratory studies suggested that tracers can add significantly to our understanding of the oceanic circulation. In order to fully exploit this potential, the first global tracer study, the GEochemical Ocean SECtions Study (GEOSECS), was launched. From the GEOSECS results it was immediately apparent that very close coordination of tracer programs with physical oceanography studies is required for full utilization of tracer data. During the 1980s plans for the World OCean Experiment (WOCE) were developed. As part of its Hydrographic Program (WHP), especially during the one-time survey, a set of tracers were measured on a global scale with unprecedented spatial resolution (both lateral and vertical). The original plan included a larger number of tracers (CFCs, 3 H/ 3 He, 14 C, 39 Ar, stable isotopes of water, helium isotopes, 228 Ra, 90 Sr, 137 Cs, 85 Kr) than could actually be measured systematically (CFCs, 3 H/ 3 He, 14 C, H 2 18 O/H 2 16 O, helium isotopes). Nevertheless, the resulting data set, which presently is under evaluation, exceeds those obtained from pre-WOCE tracer studies by a wide margin. In this contribution, we describe the existing WOCE data set and demonstrate the type of results that can be expected from its interpretation on the basis of a few selected examples. These examples include: (1) the application of tritium and 3 He to studies of the ventilation of the upper waters in the Pacific Ocean, (2) the spreading of intermediate water in the Pacific and Indian oceans as derived from the distribution of 3 He, and (3) the evaluation of

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season and their Associated Large-Scale Circulations

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Z.

2015-12-01

In the cool season (November-March), extreme temperature events (ETEs) always hit the continental United States (US) and provide significant societal impacts. According to the anomalous amplitudes of the surface air temperature (SAT), there are two typical types of ETEs, e.g. cold waves (CWs) and warm waves (WWs). This study used cluster analysis to categorize both CWs and WWs into four distinct regimes respectively and investigated their associated large-scale circulations on intra-seasonal time scale. Most of the CW regimes have large areal impact over the continental US. However, the distribution of cold SAT anomalies varies apparently in four regimes. In the sea level, the four CW regimes are characterized by anomalous high pressure over North America (near and to west of cold anomaly) with different extension and orientation. As a result, anomalous northerlies along east flank of anomalous high pressure convey cold air into the continental US. To the middle troposphere, the leading two groups feature large-scale and zonally-elongated circulation anomaly pattern, while the other two regimes exhibit synoptic wavetrain pattern with meridionally elongated features. As for the WW regimes, there are some patterns symmetry and anti-symmetry with respect to CW regimes. The WW regimes are characterized by anomalous low pressure and southerlies wind over North America. The first and fourth groups are affected by remote forcing emanating from North Pacific, while the others appear mainly locally forced.

Combinations of large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kašpar, Marek; Müller, Miloslav

2014-01-01

Roč. 138, March 2014 (2014), s. 205-212 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extreme * synoptic-scale cause * re-analysis * circulation anomaly Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.844, year: 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809513003372

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Global terrestrial biogeochemistry: Perturbations, interactions, and time scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Braswell, B.H. Jr.

1996-12-01

Global biogeochemical processes are being perturbed by human activity, principally that which is associated with industrial activity and expansion of urban and agricultural complexes. Perturbations have manifested themselves at least since the beginning of the 19th Century, and include emissions of CO{sub 2} and other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion, agricultural emissions of reactive nitrogen, and direct disruption of ecosystem function through land conversion. These perturbations yield local impacts, but there are also global consequences that are the sum of local-scale influences. Several approaches to understanding the global-scale implications of chemical perturbations to the Earth system are discussed. The lifetime of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is an important concept for understanding the current and future commitment to an altered atmospheric heat budget. The importance of the terrestrial biogeochemistry relative to the lifetime of excess CO{sub 2} is demonstrated using dynamic, aggregated models of the global carbon cycle.

The Role of Subtropical Irreversible PV Mixing in the Zonal Mean Circulation Response to Global Warming-like Thermal Forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lu, Jian [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sun, Lantao [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Wu, Yutian [New York Univ. (NYU), NY (United States); Chen, Gang [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

2013-11-21

The atmospheric circulation response to the global warming-like tropical upper tropospheric heating is revisited using a dry atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) in light of a new diagnostics based on the concept of finite-amplitude wave activity (FAWA) on equivalent latitude. For a given tropical heating profile, the linear Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) wave refraction analysis sometimes gives a very different and even opposite prediction of the eddy momentum flux response to that of the actual full model simulation, exposing the limitation of the traditional linear approach in understanding the full dynamics of the atmospheric response under global warming. The implementation of the FAWA diagnostics reveals that in response to the upper tropospheric heating, effective diffusivity, a measure of the mixing efficiency, increases and advances upward and poleward in the subtropics and the resultant enhancement and the poleward encroachment of eddy potential vorticity mixing leads to a poleward displaced potential vorticity (PV) gradient peak in the upper troposphere. The anomalous eddy PV flux, in balance with the PV dissipation, gives rise to a poleward shift in the eddy-driven jet and eddy-driven mean meridional circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that these irreversible dissipation processes in the upper troposphere are robust, regardless of the width of the tropical heating.

Development and Psychometric Evaluation of a Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder Scale

OpenAIRE

Allen, Michael H; Daniel, David G; Revicki, Dennis A; Canuso, Carla M; Turkoz, Ibrahim; Fu, Dong-Jing; Alphs, Larry; Ishak, K. Jack; Bartko, John J; Lindenmayer, Jean-Pierre

2012-01-01

Objective: The Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder scale is a new rating scale adapted from the Clinical Global Impression scale for use in patients with schizoaffective disorder. The psychometric characteristics of the Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder are described.

Prediction of monthly rainfall on homogeneous monsoon regions of India based on large scale circulation patterns using Genetic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Kashid, Satishkumar S.; Maity, Rajib

2012-08-01

SummaryPrediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is of vital importance for Indian economy, and it has been remained a great challenge for hydro-meteorologists due to inherent complexities in the climatic systems. The Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from tropical Pacific Ocean (ENSO) and those from tropical Indian Ocean (EQUINOO) are established to influence the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. The information of these two large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in terms of their indices is used to model the complex relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the ENSO as well as EQUINOO indices. However, extracting the signal from such large-scale indices for modeling such complex systems is significantly difficult. Rainfall predictions have been done for 'All India' as one unit, as well as for five 'homogeneous monsoon regions of India', defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Recent 'Artificial Intelligence' tool 'Genetic Programming' (GP) has been employed for modeling such problem. The Genetic Programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the monthly Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and large scale atmospheric circulation pattern indices - ENSO and EQUINOO. Research findings of this study indicate that GP-derived monthly rainfall forecasting models, that use large-scale atmospheric circulation information are successful in prediction of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall with correlation coefficient as good as 0.866, which may appears attractive for such a complex system. A separate analysis is carried out for All India Summer Monsoon rainfall for India as one unit, and five homogeneous monsoon regions, based on ENSO and EQUINOO indices of months of March, April and May only, performed at end of month of May. In this case, All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall could be predicted with 0.70 as correlation coefficient with somewhat lesser Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) values for different

Assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data into a global ocean circulation model: How good are the results?

Science.gov (United States)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng; Chao, Yi

1999-11-01

The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/Poseidon data are analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model. The assimilation's success is examined by analyzing its consistency and reliability measured by formal error estimates with respect to independent measurements. Improvements in model solution are demonstrated, in particular, properties not directly measured. Comparisons are performed with sea level measured by tide gauges, subsurface temperatures and currents from moorings, and bottom pressure measurements. Model representation errors dictate what can and cannot be resolved by assimilation, and its identification is emphasized.

Effect of plumes on measuring the large scale circulation in turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stevens, Richard Johannes Antonius Maria; Clercx, H.J.H.; Lohse, Detlef

2011-01-01

We studied the properties of the large-scale circulation (LSC) in turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard (RB) convection by using results from direct numerical simulations in which we placed a large number of numerical probes close to the sidewall. The LSC orientation is determined by either a cosine or a

Fluid-to-fluid scaling for a gravity- and flashing-driven natural circulation loop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Zeller, M.

1994-01-01

In certain natural-circulation reactor systems proposed recently, vapor generation takes place by flashing in an adiabatic riser above the core. A step-by-step facility design procedure was used to define suitable scaling criteria for a refrigerant-113 (R-113) experiment simulating the dynamics and stability of such a loop. The fact that vapor generation does not normally take place in the core allows additional flexibility in designing the model; almost perfect simulation can be achieved, mainly by reducing the height of the facility according to the liquid density ratio and scaling for similar void fraction distributions in the prototype and the model. ((orig.))

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

Science.gov (United States)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss

Development and psychometric evaluation of a clinical global impression for schizoaffective disorder scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Michael H; Daniel, David G; Revicki, Dennis A; Canuso, Carla M; Turkoz, Ibrahim; Fu, Dong-Jing; Alphs, Larry; Ishak, K Jack; Bartko, John J; Lindenmayer, Jean-Pierre

2012-01-01

The Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder scale is a new rating scale adapted from the Clinical Global Impression scale for use in patients with schizoaffective disorder. The psychometric characteristics of the Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder are described. Content validity was assessed using an investigator questionnaire. Inter-rater reliability was determined with 12 sets of videotaped interviews rated independently by two trained individuals. Test-retest reliability was assessed using 30 randomly selected raters from clinical trials who evaluated the same videos on separate occasions two weeks apart. Convergent and divergent validity and effect size were evaluated by comparing scores between the Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, 21-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, and Young Mania Rating Scale scales using pooled patient data from two clinical trials. Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder scores were then linked to corresponding Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores. Content validity was strong. Inter-rater agreement was good to excellent for most scales and subscales (intra-class correlation coefficient ≥ 0.50). Test-retest showed good reproducibility, with intraclass correlation coefficients ranging from 0.444 to 0.898. Spearman correlations between Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder domains and corresponding symptom scales were 0.60 or greater, and effect sizes for Clinical Global Impression for Schizoaffective Disorder overall and domain scores were similar to Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale Young Mania Rating Scale, and 21-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression scores. Raters anticipated that the scale might be less effective in distinguishing negative from depressive symptoms, and, in fact, the results here may reflect that clinical reality. Multiple lines of evidence support the

A Robust Response of the Hadley Circulation to Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2014-01-01

Tropical rainfall is expected to increase in a warmer climate. Yet, recent studies have inferred that the Hadley Circulation (HC), which is primarily driven by latent heating from tropical rainfall, is weakened under global warming. Here, we show evidence of a robust intensification of the HC from analyses of 33 CMIP5 model projections under a scenario of 1 per year CO2 emission increase. The intensification is manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze, characterized by a pronounced increase in the zonal mean ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere, a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone and enhanced rainfall in the deep tropics. These changes occur in conjunction with a rise in the region of maximum outflow of the HC, with accelerated meridional mass outflow in the uppermost branch of the HC away from the equator, coupled to a weakened inflow in the return branches of the HC in the lower troposphere.

The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

Science.gov (United States)

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscal...

Global scale ionospheric irregularities associated with thunderstorm activity

CERN Document Server

Pulinets, S A

2002-01-01

The potential difference near 280 kV exists between ground and ionosphere. This potential difference is generated by thunderstorm discharges all over the world, and return current closes the circuit in the areas of fair weather (so-called fair weather current). The model calculations and experimental measurements clearly demonstrate non-uniform latitude-longitude distribution of electric field within the atmosphere. The recent calculations show that the strong large scale vertical atmospheric electric field can penetrate into the ionosphere and create large scale irregularities of the electron concentration. To check this the global distributions of thunderstorm activity obtained with the satellite monitoring for different seasons were compared with the global distributions of ionosphere critical frequency (which is equivalent to peak electron concentration) obtained with the help of satellite topside sounding. The similarity of the obtained global distributions clearly demonstrates the effects of thunderstor...

Similarity analysis and scaling criteria for LWRs under single-phase and two-phase natural circulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishii, M.; Kataoka, I.

1983-03-01

Scaling criteria for a natural circulation loop under single phase and two-phase flow conditions have been derived. For a single phase case the continuity, integral momentum, and energy equations in one-dimensional area average forms have been used. From this, the geometrical similarity groups, friction number, Richardson number, characteristic time constant ratio, Biot number, and heat source number are obtained. The Biot number involves the heat transfer coefficient which may cause some difficulties in simulating the turbulent flow regime. For a two-phase flow case, the similarity groups obtained from a perturbation analysis based on the one-dimensional drift-flux model have been used. The physical significance of the phase change number, subcooling number, drift-flux number, friction number are discussed and conditions imposed by these groups are evaluated. In the two-phase flow case, the critical heat flux is one of the most important transients which should be simulated in a scale model. The above results are applied to the LOFT facility in case of a natural circulation simulation. Some preliminary conclusions on the feasibility of the facility have been obtained

Similarity analysis and scaling criteria for LWRs under single-phase and two-phase natural circulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishii, M.; Kataoka, I.

1983-03-01

Scaling criteria for a natural circulation loop under single phase and two-phase flow conditions have been derived. For a single phase case the continuity, integral momentum, and energy equations in one-dimensional area average forms have been used. From this, the geometrical similarity groups, friction number, Richardson number, characteristic time constant ratio, Biot number, and heat source number are obtained. The Biot number involves the heat transfer coefficient which may cause some difficulties in simulating the turbulent flow regime. For a two-phase flow case, the similarity groups obtained from a perturbation analysis based on the one-dimensional drift-flux model have been used. The physical significance of the phase change number, subcooling number, drift-flux number, friction number are discussed and conditions imposed by these groups are evaluated. In the two-phase flow case, the critical heat flux is one of the most important transients which should be simulated in a scale model. The above results are applied to the LOFT facility in case of a natural circulation simulation. Some preliminary conclusions on the feasibility of the facility have been obtained.

Global scale ionospheric irregularities associated with thunderstorm activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulinets, Sergey A.; Depuev, Victor H.

2003-01-01

The potential difference near 280 kV exists between ground and ionosphere. This potential difference is generated by thunderstorm discharges all over the world, and return current closes the circuit in the areas of fair weather (so-called fair weather current). The model calculations and experimental measurements clearly demonstrate non-uniform latitude-longitude distribution of electric field within the atmosphere. The recent calculations show that the strong large scale vertical atmospheric electric field can penetrate into the ionosphere and create large scale irregularities of the electron concentration. To check this the global distributions of thunderstorm activity obtained with the satellite monitoring for different seasons were compared with the global distributions of ionosphere critical frequency (which is equivalent to peak electron concentration) obtained with the help of satellite topside sounding. The similarity of the obtained global distributions clearly demonstrates the effects of thunderstorm electric fields onto the Earth's ionosphere. (author)

Integrated cumulus ensemble and turbulence (ICET): An integrated parameterization system for general circulation models (GCMs)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Evans, J.L.; Frank, W.M.; Young, G.S. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

1996-04-01

Successful simulations of the global circulation and climate require accurate representation of the properties of shallow and deep convective clouds, stable-layer clouds, and the interactions between various cloud types, the boundary layer, and the radiative fluxes. Each of these phenomena play an important role in the global energy balance, and each must be parameterized in a global climate model. These processes are highly interactive. One major problem limiting the accuracy of parameterizations of clouds and other processes in general circulation models (GCMs) is that most of the parameterization packages are not linked with a common physical basis. Further, these schemes have not, in general, been rigorously verified against observations adequate to the task of resolving subgrid-scale effects. To address these problems, we are designing a new Integrated Cumulus Ensemble and Turbulence (ICET) parameterization scheme, installing it in a climate model (CCM2), and evaluating the performance of the new scheme using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) sites.

Emergence of global scaling behaviour in the coupled Earth-atmosphere interaction

OpenAIRE

Fallah, Bijan; Saberi, Abbas Ali; Sodoudi, Sahar

2016-01-01

Scale invariance property in the global geometry of Earth may lead to a coupled interactive behaviour between various components of the climate system. One of the most interesting correlations exists between spatial statistics of the global topography and the temperature on Earth. Here we show that the power-law behaviour observed in the Earth topography via different approaches, resembles a scaling law in the global spatial distribution of independent atmospheric parameters. We report on obs...

Planetary circulations in the presence of transient and self-induced heating

Science.gov (United States)

Salby, Murry L.; Garcia, Rolando R.

1993-01-01

The research program focuses on large-scale circulations and their interaction with the global convective pattern. An 11-year record of global cloud imagery and contemporaneous fields of motion and temperature have been used to investigate organized convection and coherent variability of the tropical circulation operating on intraseasonal time scales. This study provides a detailed portrait of tropical variability associated with the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It reveals the nature, geographical distribution, and seasonality of discrete convective signal, which is a measure of feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. That discrete spectral behavior has been evaluated in light of natural variability of the ITCZ associated with climatological convection. A composite signature of the MJO, based on cross-covariance statistics of cloud cover, motion, and temperature, has been constructed to characterize the lifecycle of the disturbance in terms of these properties. The composite behavior has also been used to investigate the influence the MJO exerts on the zonal-mean circulation and the involvement of the MJO in transfers of momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The aforementioned observational studies have led to the production of two animations. One reveals the convective signal in band-pass filtered OLR and compares it to climatological convection. The other is a 3-dimensional visualization of the composite lifecycle of the MJO. With a clear picture of the MJO in hand, feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern can be diagnosed meaningfully in numerical simulations. This process is being explored in calculations with the linearized primitive equations on the sphere in the presence of realistic stability and shear. The numerical framework represents climatological convection as a space-time stochastic process and wave-induced convection in terms of the vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence

A scaling study of the natural circulation flow of the ex-vessel core catcher cooling system of a 1400MW PWR for designing a scale-down test facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhee, Bo. W.; Ha, K. S.; Park, R. J.; Song, J. H.

2012-01-01

A scaling study on the steady state natural circulation flow along the flow path of the ex-vessel core catcher cooling system of 1400MWe PWR is described. The scaling criteria for reproducing the same thermalhydraulic characteristics of the natural circulation flow as the prototype core catcher cooling system in the scale-down test facility is derived and the resulting natural circulation flow characteristics of the prototype and scale-down facility analyzed and compared. The purpose of this study is to apply the similarity law to the prototype EU-APR1400 core catcher cooling system and the model test facility of this prototype system and derive a relationship between the heating channel characteristics and the down-comer piping characteristics so as to determine the down-comer pipe size and the orifice size of the model test facility. As the geometry and the heating wall heat flux of the heating channel of the model test facility will be the same as those of the prototype core catcher cooling system except the width of the heating channel is reduced, the axial distribution of the coolant quality (or void fraction) is expected to resemble each other between the prototype and model facility. Thus using this fact, the down-comer piping design characteristics of the model facility can be determined from the relationship derived from the similarity law

Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper

2016-01-01

foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we...... on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach......Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader...

A regional ocean circulation model for the mid-Cretaceous North Atlantic Basin: implications for black shale formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. P. M. Topper

2011-03-01

Full Text Available High concentrations of organic matter accumulated in marine sediments during Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs in the Cretaceous. Model studies examining these events invariably make use of global ocean circulation models. In this study, a regional model for the North Atlantic Basin during OAE2 at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary has been developed. A first order check of the results has been performed by comparison with the results of a recent global Cenomanian CCSM3 run, from which boundary and initial conditions were obtained. The regional model is able to maintain tracer patterns and to produce velocity patterns similar to the global model. The sensitivity of the basin tracer and circulation patterns to changes in the geometry of the connections with the global ocean is examined with three experiments with different bathymetries near the sponges. Different geometries turn out to have little effect on tracer distribution, but do affect circulation and upwelling patterns. The regional model is also used to test the hypothesis that ocean circulation may have been behind the deposition of black shales during OAEs. Three scenarios are tested which are thought to represent pre-OAE, OAE and post-OAE situations. Model results confirm that Pacific intermediate inflow together with coastal upwelling could have enhanced primary production during OAE2. A low sea level in the pre-OAE scenario could have inhibited large scale black shale formation, as could have the opening of the Equatorial Atlantic Seaway in the post-OAE scenario.

Advanced circulating fluidised bed technology (CFB) for large-scale solid biomass fuel firing power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaentti, Timo; Zabetta, Edgardo Coda; Nuortimo, Kalle [Foster Wheeler Energia Oy, Varkaus (Finland)

2013-04-01

Worldwide the nations are taking initiatives to counteract global warming by reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Efforts to increase boiler efficiency and the use of biomass and other solid renewable fuels are well in line with these objectives. Circulating fluidised bed boilers (CFB) are ideal for efficient power generation, capable to fire a broad variety of solid biomass fuels from small CHP plants to large utility power plants. Relevant boiler references in commercial operation are made for Finland and Poland.

Toward a global multi-scale heliophysics observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Semeter, J. L.

2017-12-01

We live within the only known stellar-planetary system that supports life. What we learn about this system is not only relevant to human society and its expanding reach beyond Earth's surface, but also to our understanding of the origins and evolution of life in the universe. Heliophysics is focused on solar-terrestrial interactions mediated by the magnetic and plasma environment surrounding the planet. A defining feature of energy flow through this environment is interaction across physical scales. A solar disturbance aimed at Earth can excite geospace variability on scales ranging from thousands of kilometers (e.g., global convection, region 1 and 2 currents, electrojet intensifications) to 10's of meters (e.g., equatorial spread-F, dispersive Alfven waves, plasma instabilities). Most "geospace observatory" concepts are focused on a single modality (e.g., HF/UHF radar, magnetometer, optical) providing a limited parameter set over a particular spatiotemporal resolution. Data assimilation methods have been developed to couple heterogeneous and distributed observations, but resolution has typically been prescribed a-priori and according to physical assumptions. This paper develops a conceptual framework for the next generation multi-scale heliophysics observatory, capable of revealing and quantifying the complete spectrum of cross-scale interactions occurring globally within the geospace system. The envisioned concept leverages existing assets, enlists citizen scientists, and exploits low-cost access to the geospace environment. Examples are presented where distributed multi-scale observations have resulted in substantial new insight into the inner workings of our stellar-planetary system.

Interannual Variability in the Position and Strength of the East Asian Jet Stream and Its Relation to Large - scale Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Duo; Zhang, Yang; Wu, Qigang

2013-04-01

East Asian Jet Stream (EASJ) is charactered by obvious interannual variability in strength and position (latitude), with wide impacts on East Asian climate in all seasons. In this study, two indices are established to measure the interannual variability in intensity and position of EAJS. Possible causing factors, including both local signals and non-local large-scale circulation, are examined using NCAP-NCAR reanalysis data to investigate their relations with jet variation. Our analysis shows that the relationship between the interannual variations of EASJ and these factors depends on seasons. In the summer, both the intensity and position of EASJ are closely related to the meridional gradient of local surface temperature, but display no apparent relationship with the larg-scale circulation. In cold seasons (autumn, winter and spring), both the local factor and the large-scale circulation, i.e. the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), play important roles in the interannual variability of the jet intensity. The variability in the jet position, however, is more correlated to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), especially in winter. Diagnostic analysis indicates that transient eddy activity plays an important role in connecting the interannual variability of EASJ position with AO.

Bringing the Global Scale to Education in Natural Resources Management

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, D. P.

2017-12-01

Given the ominous trajectory of rapid global environmental change, environmental managers must grapple with global scale structures, processes, and concepts. The concept of the Anthropocene Epoch, albeit contested, is highly integrative across disciplines and temporal scales, and thus potentially helpful in the context of educating environmental managers. It can be framed temporally in terms of the geologic history of the global environment, the initiation and acceleration of anthropogenic impacts on the environment, and a future global environment that is highly dependent on human decisions. A key lesson from Earth's pre-human geologic history is that global climate has generally been linked to greenhouse gas concentrations, and many mass extinction events were associated with high greenhouse gas concentrations. The pervasive impacts of the contemporary technosphere on the biosphere point especially to the need to conserve biosphere capital. Scenarios of Earth's future environment, based on Earth system models, suggest that business-as-usual technologies and economic practices will set the stage for a biophysical environment that is hostile (if not inimical) to a high technology global civilization. These lessons can inform and inspire sub-global management efforts to mitigate and adapt to global environmental change.

Function of coral reef for glbal scale circulation of carbon dioxide. Chikyu kobo no CO sub 2 junkan ni okeru sangosho no yakuwari

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kayane, H [Geological Survey of Japan, Tokyo (Japan)

1990-12-01

Together with the global warming problem, it becomes important to elucidate the carbon dioxide circulation in global scale mechanism. Within a part of that elucidation, explanation of function and ecology was made of coral reef, fixing carbon dioxide through two passages, ie., formation of potassium carbonate skeleton and formation of organic matter. The coral reef is judged to become effective sink of carbon dioxide by the photosynthesis by symbiotic seaweed in coral body and coral formation of potassium carbonate skeleton. The coral reef is higher than the tropical rain forest in diversity and productivity of biological matter. In addition, the formation of potassium carbonate also fixes carbon dioxide. Its producing rate of organic matter is 2.5kgC/m {sup 2}/year, which is 20 times as high as that of offshore region. Also, its sedimentary rate is more than several hundreds of times as high as that by Foraminifera in the offshore region. Therefore, its effective control is important, though it still has unknown points. 22 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab.

The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop yields in IP

Science.gov (United States)

Capa Morocho, Mirian; Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz Ramos, Margarita

2014-05-01

Large-scale circulations patterns (ENSO, NAO) have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather, and therefore on crop yield over many parts of the world(Garnett and Khandekar, 1992; Aasa et al., 2004; Rozas and Garcia-Gonzalez, 2012). In this study, we analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns and regional climate on the principal components of maize yield variability in Iberian Peninsula (IP) using reanalysis datasets. Additionally, we investigate the modulation of these relationships by multidecadal patterns. This study is performed analyzing long time series of maize yield, only climate dependent, computed with the crop model CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5). To simulate yields, reanalysis daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. The reanalysis climate data were obtained from National Center for Environmental Prediction (20th Century and NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data server (ERA 40 and ERA Interim). Simulations were run at five locations: Lugo (northwestern), Lerida (NE), Madrid (central), Albacete (southeastern) and Córdoba (S IP) (Gabaldón et al., 2013). From these time series standardized anomalies were calculated. Afterwards, time series were time filtered to focus on the interannual-to-multiannual variability, splitting up in two components: low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) time scales. The principal components of HF yield anomalies in IP were compared with a set of documented patterns. These relationships were compared with multidecadal patterns, as Atlanctic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillations (IPO). The results of this study have important implications in crop forecasting. In this way, it may have a positive impact on both public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance

The ecology of dust: local- to global-scale perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Whicker, Jeffrey J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Field, Jason P [UA; Belnap, Jayne [NON LANL; Breshears, David D [UA; Neff, Jason [CU; Okin, Gregory S [UCLA; Painter, Thomas H [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Ravi, Sujith [UNIV OF ARIZONA; Reheis, Marith C [UCLA; Reynolds, Richard L [NON LANL

2009-01-01

Emission and redistribution of dust due to wind erosion in drylands drives major biogeochemical dynamics and provides important aeolian environmental connectivity at scales from individual plants up to the global scale. Yet, perhaps because most relevant research on aeolian processes has been presented in a geosciences rather than ecological context, most ecological studies do not explicitly consider dust-driven processes. To bridge this disciplinary gap, we provide a general overview of the ecological importance of dust, examine complex interactions between wind erosion and ecosystem dynamics from the plant-interspace scale to regional and global scales, and highlight specific examples of how disturbance affects these interactions and their consequences. Changes in climate and intensification of land use will both likely lead to increased dust production. To address these challenges, environmental scientists, land managers and policy makers need to more explicitly consider dust in resource management decisions.

The Tunneling Method for Global Optimization in Multidimensional Scaling.

Science.gov (United States)

Groenen, Patrick J. F.; Heiser, Willem J.

1996-01-01

A tunneling method for global minimization in multidimensional scaling is introduced and adjusted for multidimensional scaling with general Minkowski distances. The method alternates a local search step with a tunneling step in which a different configuration is sought with the same STRESS implementation. (SLD)

Impact of cloud microphysics on cloud-radiation interactions in the CSU general circulation model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fowler, L.D.; Randall, D.A.

1995-04-01

Our ability to study and quantify the impact of cloud-radiation interactions in studying global scale climate variations strongly relies upon the ability of general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the coupling between the spatial and temporal variations of the model-generated cloudiness and atmospheric moisture budget components. In particular, the ability of GCMs to reproduce the geographical distribution of the sources and sinks of the planetary radiation balance depends upon their representation of the formation and dissipation of cloudiness in conjunction with cloud microphysics processes, and the fractional amount and optical characteristics of cloudiness in conjunction with the mass of condensate stored in the atmosphere. A cloud microphysics package which encompasses five prognostic variables for the mass of water vapor, cloud water, cloud ice, rain, and snow has been implemented in the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM) to simulate large-scale condensation processes. Convection interacts with the large-scale environment through the detrainment of cloud water and cloud ice at the top of cumulus towers. The cloud infrared emissivity and cloud optical depth of the model-generated cloudiness are interactive and depend upon the mass of cloud water and cloud ice suspended in the atmosphere. The global atmospheric moisture budget and planetary radiation budget of the CSU GCM obtained from a perpetual January simulation are discussed. Geographical distributions of the atmospheric moisture species are presented. Global maps of the top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation and planetary albedo are compared against Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite data.

Multidimensional scaling analysis identifies pathological and prognostically relevant profiles of circulating T-cells in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Rissiek, Anne; Schulze, Christian; Bacher, Ulrike; Schieferdecker, Aneta; Thiele, Benjamin; Jacholkowski, Anita; Flammiger, Anna; Horn, Christiane; Haag, Friedrich; Tiegs, Gisa; Zirlik, Katja; Trepel, Martin; Tolosa, Eva; Binder, Mascha

2014-11-15

Antitumor immunity in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is hampered by highly dysfunctional T-cells. Although certain T-cell subsets have been reported to be of prognostic significance in this disease, their interplay is complex and it remains incompletely understood which of these subsets significantly drive CLL progression. Here, we determined immunological profiles of 24 circulating T-cell subsets from 79 untreated individuals by multiparametric flow cytometry. This screening cohort included healthy donors, patients with monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL), Rai 0 CLL and advanced CLL. We applied multidimensional scaling analysis as rigorous and unbiased statistical tool to globally assess the composition of the circulating T-cell environment and to generate T-cell scores reflecting its integrity. These scores allowed clear distinction between advanced CLL and healthy controls, whereas both MBL and Rai 0 CLL showed intermediate scores mirroring the biological continuum of CLL and its precursor stages. T-cell stimulation and suppression assays as well as longitudinal T-cell profiling showed an increasingly suppressive regulatory function initiating at the MBL stage. Effector function was impaired only after transition to CLL and partially recovered after chemoimmunotherapy. In an independent validation cohort of 52 untreated CLL cases, aberrant T-cell profiles were significantly associated with shorter time to treatment independently of other prognostic parameters. Random forest modeling predicted regulatory T-cell, gamma/delta and NKT-cells, as well as exhaustion of the CD8+ subset as potential drivers of progression. Our data illustrate a pathological T-cell environment in MBL that evolves toward a more and more suppressive and prognostically relevant profile across the disease stages. © 2014 UICC.

Mixed convection around calandria tubes in a ¼ scale CANDU-6 moderator circulation tank

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Atkins, M.D.; Rossouw, D.J.; Boer, M. [Nuclear Science Division, School of Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg (South Africa); Kim, T., E-mail: tong.kim@wits.ac.za [Nuclear Science Division, School of Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg (South Africa); Rhee, B.W.; Kim, H.T. [Severe Accident and PHWR Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2017-05-15

Highlights: • A secondary jet is formed at a stagnation region and is directed towards the center of the MCT. • The secondary jet undergoes the significant dissipation and mixing due to calandria tubes (CTs). • Its cooling effectiveness is reduced on the CTs in the bottom of the MCT. • With forced convection dominance, peak heat transfer is on the upper CT surface. • With natural convection dominance, peak heat transfer is on the lower CT surface. - Abstract: This study experimentally characterizes mixed convection around calandria tubes (CTs) in a ¼ scale CANDU-6 moderator circulation tank (MCT) that uses air as the working fluid. In a full scale CANDU-6 reactor that undergoes a postulated dual failure with a loss-of-coolant accident without the emergency core cooling system available, mixed convection heat transfer occurs around the CTs. The cooling effectiveness of the moderator is diminished as an emergency heat sink if overheating eventually leads to film boiling. To prevent the onset of film boiling, local sub-cooling margins of the moderator needs to be maintained or else the critical heat flux should be increased. Circulating the moderator which interacts with the overheated CTs increases the heat transfer into the moderator which may suppress film boiling. The present experimental results demonstrate that the cooling effectiveness of the circulating moderator, in particular the secondary jet, is attenuated substantially as it is convected away from the inner wall towards the center of the MCT. The momentum of the secondary jet is diffused through the CTs. At a low jet Reynolds number, the secondary jet becomes ineffective so that some overheated CTs positioned in the other half of the MCT are cooled only by natural convection.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Emerton, Rebecca E.; Stephens, Elisabeth M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Pagano, Thomas P.; Weerts, A.H.; Wood, A.; Salamon, Peter; Brown, James D.; Hjerdt, Niclas; Donnelly, Chantal; Baugh, Calum A.; Cloke, Hannah L.

2016-01-01

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not

Carbon budgets of biological soil crusts at micro-, meso-, and global scales

Science.gov (United States)

Sancho, Leopoldo G; Belnap, Jayne; Colesie, Claudia; Raggio, Jose; Weber, Bettina

2016-01-01

The importance of biocrusts in the ecology of arid lands across all continents is widely recognized. In spite of this broad distribution, contributions of biocrusts to the global biogeochemical cycles have only recently been considered. While these studies opened a new view on the global role of biocrusts, they also clearly revealed the lack of data for many habitats and of overall standards for measurements and analysis. In order to understand carbon cycling in biocrusts and the progress which has been made during the last 15 years, we offer a multi-scale approach covering different climatic regions. We also include a discussion on available measurement techniques at each scale: A micro-scale section focuses on the individual organism level, including modeling based on the combination of field and lab data. The meso-scale section addresses the CO2 exchange of a complete ecosystem or at the community level. Finally, we consider the contribution of biocrusts at a global scale, giving a general perspective of the most relevant findings regarding the role of biological soil crusts in the global terrestrial carbon cycle.

Growing water scarcity in agriculture: future challenge to global water security.

Science.gov (United States)

Falkenmark, Malin

2013-11-13

As water is an essential component of the planetary life support system, water deficiency constitutes an insecurity that has to be overcome in the process of socio-economic development. The paper analyses the origin and appearance of blue as well as green water scarcity on different scales and with particular focus on risks to food production and water supply for municipalities and industry. It analyses water scarcity originating from both climatic phenomena and water partitioning disturbances on different scales: crop field, country level and the global circulation system. The implications by 2050 of water scarcity in terms of potential country-level water deficits for food self-reliance are analysed, and the compensating dependence on trade in virtual water for almost half the world population is noted. Planetary-scale conditions for sustainability of the global water circulation system are discussed in terms of a recently proposed Planetary Freshwater Boundary, and the consumptive water use reserve left to be shared between water requirements for global food production, fuelwood production and carbon sequestration is discussed. Finally, the importance of a paradigm shift in the further conceptual development of water security is stressed, so that adequate attention is paid to water's fundamental role in both natural and socio-economic systems.

Simulation of anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the CCSM3.1 ocean circulation-biogeochemical model: comparison with data-based estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Khatiwala

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The global ocean has taken up a large fraction of the CO2 released by human activities since the industrial revolution. Quantifying the oceanic anthropogenic carbon (Cant inventory and its variability is important for predicting the future global carbon cycle. The detailed comparison of data-based and model-based estimates is essential for the validation and continued improvement of our prediction capabilities. So far, three global estimates of oceanic Cant inventory that are "data-based" and independent of global ocean circulation models have been produced: one based on the Δ C* method, and two that are based on constraining surface-to-interior transport of tracers, the TTD method and a maximum entropy inversion method (GF. The GF method, in particular, is capable of reconstructing the history of Cant inventory through the industrial era. In the present study we use forward model simulations of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.1 to estimate the Cant inventory and compare the results with the data-based estimates. We also use the simulations to test several assumptions of the GF method, including the assumption of constant climate and circulation, which is common to all the data-based estimates. Though the integrated estimates of global Cant inventories are consistent with each other, the regional estimates show discrepancies up to 50 %. The CCSM3 model underestimates the total Cant inventory, in part due to weak mixing and ventilation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Analyses of different simulation results suggest that key assumptions about ocean circulation and air-sea disequilibrium in the GF method are generally valid on the global scale, but may introduce errors in Cant estimates on regional scales. The GF method should also be used with caution when predicting future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake.

Globalization of Brewing and Economies of Scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Erik Strøjer; Wu, Yanqing

The globalization of the brewing industry after the turn of the century through a large wave of mergers and acquisitions has changed the structure of the world beer markets. The paper tracks the development in industry concentrations from 2002 to 2012 and points to high transportation costs...... for beers and economies of scale in advertising and sales efforts as the main factors behind the wave of cross-country mergers and acquisitions. Using firm-level data from the largest breweries, the estimations verify significant economies of scale in marketing and distribution costs. Based on information...

Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

2018-03-01

Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

South American Monsoon: Recent Droughts in the Context of Changing Global Circulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Seth, A.; Fernandes, K.; Camargo, S. J.

2016-12-01

The 2013-2015 drought in Southeast Brazil led to water shortages in São Paulo, the country's most populous city. The observed drought during austral summers of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 and related large-scale dynamics are examined. The 2013-2014 precipitation deficits were more concentrated in the state of São Paulo, while in 2014-2015 moderate deficits were seen throughout the region. We find that a persistent warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the western tropical Pacific Ocean was an important driver of drought via atmospheric teleconnection in the two December-February seasons. The warm SST and associated convective heating initiated a wave train across the South Pacific. The resulting anticyclonic geopotential height anomaly over the southwest Atlantic expanded the westward margin of the South Atlantic high and prevented low-pressure systems from entering southeast Brazil from midlatitudes. This mechanism suggests a hemispheric symmetry to that proposed for the recent California drought. A first look at CMIP5 model projections to examine the role of large scale circulation changes to drought in the Sao Paulo region will be presented.

Large-scale ocean connectivity and planktonic body size

KAUST Repository

Villarino, Ernesto; Watson, James R.; Jö nsson, Bror; Gasol, Josep M.; Salazar, Guillem; Acinas, Silvia G.; Estrada, Marta; Massana, Ramó n; Logares, Ramiro; Giner, Caterina R.; Pernice, Massimo C.; Olivar, M. Pilar; Citores, Leire; Corell, Jon; Rodrí guez-Ezpeleta, Naiara; Acuñ a, José Luis; Molina-Ramí rez, Axayacatl; Gonzá lez-Gordillo, J. Ignacio; Có zar, André s; Martí , Elisa; Cuesta, José A.; Agusti, Susana; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; Duarte, Carlos M.; Irigoien, Xabier; Chust, Guillem

2018-01-01

Global patterns of planktonic diversity are mainly determined by the dispersal of propagules with ocean currents. However, the role that abundance and body size play in determining spatial patterns of diversity remains unclear. Here we analyse spatial community structure - β-diversity - for several planktonic and nektonic organisms from prokaryotes to small mesopelagic fishes collected during the Malaspina 2010 Expedition. β-diversity was compared to surface ocean transit times derived from a global circulation model, revealing a significant negative relationship that is stronger than environmental differences. Estimated dispersal scales for different groups show a negative correlation with body size, where less abundant large-bodied communities have significantly shorter dispersal scales and larger species spatial turnover rates than more abundant small-bodied plankton. Our results confirm that the dispersal scale of planktonic and micro-nektonic organisms is determined by local abundance, which scales with body size, ultimately setting global spatial patterns of diversity.

Large-scale ocean connectivity and planktonic body size

KAUST Repository

Villarino, Ernesto

2018-01-04

Global patterns of planktonic diversity are mainly determined by the dispersal of propagules with ocean currents. However, the role that abundance and body size play in determining spatial patterns of diversity remains unclear. Here we analyse spatial community structure - β-diversity - for several planktonic and nektonic organisms from prokaryotes to small mesopelagic fishes collected during the Malaspina 2010 Expedition. β-diversity was compared to surface ocean transit times derived from a global circulation model, revealing a significant negative relationship that is stronger than environmental differences. Estimated dispersal scales for different groups show a negative correlation with body size, where less abundant large-bodied communities have significantly shorter dispersal scales and larger species spatial turnover rates than more abundant small-bodied plankton. Our results confirm that the dispersal scale of planktonic and micro-nektonic organisms is determined by local abundance, which scales with body size, ultimately setting global spatial patterns of diversity.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-11-11

The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the 'Perceived Temperature' procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. The global maps 1971-1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm-humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041-2050 based on the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate

Consequences of future increased Arctic runoff on Arctic Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice cover

OpenAIRE

Nummelin, Aleksi; Ilicak, Mehmet; Li, Camille; Smedsrud, Lars Henrik

2016-01-01

The Arctic Ocean has important freshwater sources including river runoff, low evaporation, and exchange with the Pacific Ocean. In the future, we expect even larger freshwater input as the global hydrological cycle accelerates, increasing high-latitude precipitation, and river runoff. Previous modeling studies show some robust responses to high-latitude freshwater perturbations, including a strengthening of Arctic stratification and a weakening of the large-scale ocean circulation...

Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmstorf, Stefan

2002-09-01

Oceans cover more than two-thirds of our blue planet. The waters move in a global circulation system, driven by subtle density differences and transporting huge amounts of heat. Ocean circulation is thus an active and highly nonlinear player in the global climate game. Increasingly clear evidence implicates ocean circulation in abrupt and dramatic climate shifts, such as sudden temperature changes in Greenland on the order of 5-10 °C and massive surges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean - events that have occurred repeatedly during the last glacial cycle.

Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

Science.gov (United States)

Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

2018-01-01

Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall and Flood Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Xi, Chen; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration and spatial extent of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (up to 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances and floods. We present the first ever results on a global analysis of the scaling characteristics of extreme rainfall and flood event duration, volumes and contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. Results are organized by latitude and with reference to the phases of ENSO, and reveal surprising invariance across latitude. Speculation as to the potential relation to the dynamical factors is presented

Impacts of Wind Stress Changes on the Global Heat Transport, Baroclinic Instability, and the Thermohaline Circulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeferson Prietsch Machado

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The wind stress is a measure of momentum transfer due to the relative motion between the atmosphere and the ocean. This study aims to investigate the anomalous pattern of atmospheric and oceanic circulations due to 50% increase in the wind stress over the equatorial region and the Southern Ocean. In this paper we use a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity (SPEEDO. The results show that the intensification of equatorial wind stress causes a decrease in sea surface temperature in the tropical region due to increased upwelling and evaporative cooling. On the other hand, the intensification of wind stress over the Southern Ocean induces a regional increase in the air and sea surface temperatures which in turn leads to a reduction in Antarctic sea ice thickness. This occurs in association with changes in the global thermohaline circulation strengthening the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water formation and a weakening of the North Atlantic Deep Water. Moreover, changes in the Southern Hemisphere thermal gradient lead to modified atmospheric and oceanic heat transports reducing the storm tracks and baroclinic activity.

Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss

Science.gov (United States)

Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine

2018-01-01

Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1-4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (`peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.

Transforming Global Health by Improving the Science of Scale-Up.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret E Kruk

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In its report Global Health 2035, the Commission on Investing in Health proposed that health investments can reduce mortality in nearly all low- and middle-income countries to very low levels, thereby averting 10 million deaths per year from 2035 onward. Many of these gains could be achieved through scale-up of existing technologies and health services. A key instrument to close this gap is policy and implementation research (PIR that aims to produce generalizable evidence on what works to implement successful interventions at scale. Rigorously designed PIR promotes global learning and local accountability. Much greater national and global investments in PIR capacity will be required to enable the scaling of effective approaches and to prevent the recycling of failed ideas. Sample questions for the PIR research agenda include how to close the gap in the delivery of essential services to the poor, which population interventions for non-communicable diseases are most applicable in different contexts, and how to engage non-state actors in equitable provision of health services in the context of universal health coverage.

Planetary-scale circulations in the presence of climatological and wave-induced heating

Science.gov (United States)

Salby, Murry L; Garcia, Rolando R.; Hendon, Harry H.

1994-01-01

Interaction between the large-scale circulation and the convective pattern is investigated in a coupled system governed by the linearized primitive equations. Convection is represented in terms of two components of heating: A 'climatological component' is prescribed stochastically to represent convection that is maintained by fixed distributions of land and sea and sea surface temperature (SST). An 'induced component' is defined in terms of the column-integrated moisture flux convergence to represent convection that is produced through feedback with the circulation. Each component describes the envelope organizing mesoscale convective activity. As SST on the equator is increased, induced heating amplifies in the gravest zonal wavenumbers at eastward frequencies, where positive feedback offsets dissipation. Under barotropic stratification, a critical SST of 29.5 C results in positive feedback exactly cancelling dissipation in wavenumber 1 for an eastward phase speed of 6 m/s. Sympathetic interaction between the circulation and the induced heating is the basis for 'frictional wave-Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK)', which is distinguished from classical wave-CISK by rendering the gravest zonal dimensions most unstable. Under baroclinic stratification, the coupled system exhibits similar behavior. The critical SST is only 26.5 C for conditions representative of equinox, but in excess of 30 C for conditions representative of solstice. Having the form of an unsteady Walker circulation, the disturbance produced by frictional wave-CISK compares favorably with the observed life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). SST above the critical value produces an amplifying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric westerlies and is positively correlated with temperature and surface convergence. Conversely, SST below the critical value produces a decaying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper

Continental distribution as a forcing factor for global-scale temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barron, E J; Thompson, S L; Hay, W W

1984-08-16

Since the advent of the continental drift hypothesis, changing continental geometries have been proposed as an explanation for long-term temperature variability. The climatic influence of a few specific past geographies has been investigated quantitatively, but these studies do not indicate the potential temperature variability due to continental positions. This problem has been examined only with simple climate models having limiting assumptions such as no cloud cover. Here idealized continental geometries are used as boundary conditions in a simulation using a general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere. The range in model simulated globally-averaged surface temperature is 7.4 K with a difference in polar surface temperature of up to 34 K. The simulations suggest a substantial climatic sensitivity to continental positions with the coldest global climate when land masses are in high latitudes. Although the simulations have not captured theoretical limits of climatic variability due to continental positions, present-day geography is near the cold end of this spectrum. 20 references, 1 figure.

Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Garcia-Herranz

Full Text Available Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks.

Global and local confinement scaling laws of NBI-heated gas-puffing plasmas on LHD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamazaki, K.; Miyazawa, J.; Sakakibara, S.; Yamada, H.; Narihara, K.; Tanaka, K.; Osakabe, M.

2003-01-01

The relation between global confinement scaling laws and local transport characteristics is evaluated on the Large Helical Device (LHD). Previous 'new LHD' global scaling laws are revised using the precise plasma edge definition and the recent LHD data of 4th, 5th and 6th experimental campaigns. Strong Gyro-Bohm-like feature of global confinement is reconfirmed. The magnetic field dependence and geometrical scale dependence are stronger than the conventional scaling laws. Using same database of LHD data, the radial profiles of transport coefficients are evaluated, and it is reconfirmed that the local transport in the core is Gyro-Bohm-like, and that near the boundary is strong Gyro-Bohm-like. The global confinement property is consistent with effective transport coefficient near the edge. (author)

Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

Science.gov (United States)

Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

2015-11-01

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

Impact of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Hadley Circulation Using a High-Resolution AGCM

KAUST Repository

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

2018-03-31

The direct radiative effects of volcanic eruptions resulting in solar dimming, stratospheric warming, global surface cooling and reduction in rainfall are well documented. However, eruptions also cause indirect climatic impacts that are not well understood. For example, solar dimming induced by volcanic aerosols could cause changes in tropical Hadley circulation that in turn largely affect evaporation and precipitation patterns. Therefore, understanding the sensitivity of HC to volcanism is essential, as this circulation is directly related to precipitation changes in the tropics and with other large-scale circulations. Hence, to better understand the post-eruption sensitivity of HC and associated changes in the hydrologic cycle, simulations for the El Chichón and Pinatubo tropical eruptions were conducted using a high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM), effectively at 25 and 50 km grid spacing. The model simulated results are then compared with observational and reanalysis products. Both the model and observational analysis show posteruption weakening, shrinking and equatorward displacement of the updraft branch of HC caused by the equatorward shift of midlatitude jets and hemispheric land-sea thermal gradient. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is tightly coupled to the rising branch of HC, hence, post-eruption weakening and equatorward displacement of HC cause weakening of ITCZ that adversely affects rainfall distribution in the monsoon-fed regions, especially the South Asian and African tropical rain-belt regions. The modelproduced post-eruption distribution of cloud contents suggests a southward shift of ITCZ. The HIRAM results are largely in agreement with the reanalysis, observations and previous studies indicating that this model performs reasonably well in reproducing the global and regional-scale dynamic changes caused by volcanic radiative forcing.

Impact of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Hadley Circulation Using a High-Resolution AGCM

KAUST Repository

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

2018-01-01

The direct radiative effects of volcanic eruptions resulting in solar dimming, stratospheric warming, global surface cooling and reduction in rainfall are well documented. However, eruptions also cause indirect climatic impacts that are not well understood. For example, solar dimming induced by volcanic aerosols could cause changes in tropical Hadley circulation that in turn largely affect evaporation and precipitation patterns. Therefore, understanding the sensitivity of HC to volcanism is essential, as this circulation is directly related to precipitation changes in the tropics and with other large-scale circulations. Hence, to better understand the post-eruption sensitivity of HC and associated changes in the hydrologic cycle, simulations for the El Chichón and Pinatubo tropical eruptions were conducted using a high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM), effectively at 25 and 50 km grid spacing. The model simulated results are then compared with observational and reanalysis products. Both the model and observational analysis show posteruption weakening, shrinking and equatorward displacement of the updraft branch of HC caused by the equatorward shift of midlatitude jets and hemispheric land-sea thermal gradient. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is tightly coupled to the rising branch of HC, hence, post-eruption weakening and equatorward displacement of HC cause weakening of ITCZ that adversely affects rainfall distribution in the monsoon-fed regions, especially the South Asian and African tropical rain-belt regions. The modelproduced post-eruption distribution of cloud contents suggests a southward shift of ITCZ. The HIRAM results are largely in agreement with the reanalysis, observations and previous studies indicating that this model performs reasonably well in reproducing the global and regional-scale dynamic changes caused by volcanic radiative forcing.

Uranus atmospheric dynamics and circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Allison, Michael; Beebe, Reta F.; Conrath, Barney J.; Hinson, David P.; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

1991-01-01

The observations, models, and theories relevant to the atmospheric dynamics and meteorology of Uranus are discussed. The available models for the large-scale heat transport and atmospheric dynamics as well as diagnostic interpretations of the Voyager data are reviewed. Some pertinent ideas and questions regarding the global circulation balance are considered, partly in comparison with other planetary atmospheres. The available data indicate atmospheric rotation at midlatitudes nearly 200 m/s faster than that of the planetary magnetic field. Analysis of the dynamical deformation of the shape and size of isobaric surfaces measured by the Voyager radio-occultation experiment suggests a subrotating equator at comparable altitudes. Infrared temperature retrievals above the cloud deck indicate a smaller equator-to-pole contrast than expected for purely radiative-convective equilibrium, but show local variations implying a latitudinally correlated decrease with altitude in the cloud-tracked wind.

Ocean circulation generated magnetic signals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manoj, C.; Kuvshinov, A.; Maus, S.

2006-01-01

Conducting ocean water, as it flows through the Earth's magnetic field, generates secondary electric and magnetic fields. An assessment of the ocean-generated magnetic fields and their detectability may be of importance for geomagnetism and oceanography. Motivated by the clear identification...... of ocean tidal signatures in the CHAMP magnetic field data we estimate the ocean magnetic signals of steady flow using a global 3-D EM numerical solution. The required velocity data are from the ECCO ocean circulation experiment and alternatively from the OCCAM model for higher resolution. We assume...... of the magnetic field, as compared to the ECCO simulation. Besides the expected signatures of the global circulation patterns, we find significant seasonal variability of ocean magnetic signals in the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans. Compared to seasonal variation, interannual variations produce weaker signals....

The onset of modern-like Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the Eocene-Oligocene transition: Evidence, causes, and possible implications for global cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Abelson, Meir; Erez, Jonathan

2017-06-01

A compilation of benthic δ18O from the whole Atlantic and the Southern Ocean (Atlantic sector) shows two major jumps in the interbasinal gradient of δ18O (Δδ18O) during the Eocene and the Oligocene: one at ˜40 Ma and the second concomitant with the isotopic event of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), ˜33.7 Ma ago. From previously published circulation models and proxies, we show that the first Δδ18O jump reflects the thermal isolation of Antarctica associated with the proto-Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC). The second marks the onset of interhemispheric northern-sourced circulation cell, similar to the modern Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The onset of AMOC-like circulation slightly preceded (100-300 kyr) the EOT, as we show by the high-resolution profiles of δ18O and δ13C previously published from DSDP/ODP sites in the Southern Ocean and South Atlantic. These events coincide with the onset of antiestuarine circulation between the Nordic seas and the North Atlantic which started around the EOT and may be connected to the deepening of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. We suggest that while the shallow proto-ACC supplied the energy for deep ocean convection in the Southern Hemisphere, the onset of the interhemispheric northern circulation cell was due to the significant EOT intensification of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic driven by the Nordic antiestuarine circulation. This onset of the interhemispheric northern-sourced circulation cell could have prompted the EOT global cooling.Plain Language SummaryThe Eocene-Oligocene transition is the major abrupt climatic event during the Cenozoic, which marks the major step to the icehouse world. We show that this transition is a shift to a world with Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and slightly preceded this transition. Thus, possibly was a major factor in this climatic shift.

Thermal Tides During the 2001 Martian Global-Scale Dust Storm

Science.gov (United States)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Wilson, R. John; McConnochie, Timothy H.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Bandfield, Donald J.; Smith, Michael D.

2014-01-01

The 2001 (Mars Year 25) global dust storm radically altered the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. Using observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and Mars WRF general circulation model simulations, we examine the changes to thermal tides and planetary waves caused by the storm. We find that the extratropical diurnal migrating tide is dramatically enhanced during the storm, particularly in the southern hemisphere, reaching amplitudes of more than 20 K. The tropical diurnal migrating tide is weakened to almost undetectable levels. The diurnal Kelvin waves are also significantly weakened, particularly during the period of global expansion at Ls=200deg-210deg. In contrast, the westward propagating diurnal wavenumber 2 tide strengthens to 4-8 K at altitudes above 30km. The wavenumber 1 stationary wave reaches amplitudes of 10-12 K at 50deg-70degN, far larger than is typically seen during this time of year. The phase of this stationary wave and the enhancement of the diurnal wavenumber 2 tide appear to be responses to the high-altitude westward propagating equatorial wavenumber 1 structure in dust mixing ratio observed during the storm in previous works. This work provides a global picture of dust storm wave dynamics that reveals the coupling between the tropics and high-latitude wave responses. We conclude that the zonal distribution of thermotidal forcing from atmospheric aerosol concentration is as important to understanding the atmospheric wave response as the total global mean aerosol optical depth.

The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

2013-12-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

Irrational Delay Revisited: Examining Five Procrastination Scales in a Global Sample

OpenAIRE

Frode Svartdal; Piers Steel

2017-01-01

Source at http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01927 Scales attempting to measure procrastination focus on different facets of the phenomenon, yet they share a common understanding of procrastination as an unnecessary, unwanted, and disadvantageous delay. The present paper examines in a global sample (N = 4,169) five different procrastination scales – Decisional Procrastination Scale (DPS), Irrational Procrastination Scale (IPS), Pure Procrastination Scale (PPS), Adult Inventory of Procr...

Ocean Circulation and Mixing Relevant to the Global System

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gordon, Arnold

1999-01-01

.... Arlindo's goal is to resolve the circulation and water mass stratification within the Indonesian Seas in order to formulate a thorough description of the source, spreading patterns, inter-ocean...

Empirical scaling law connecting persistence and severity of global terrorism

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Jianbo; Fang, Peng; Liu, Feiyan

2017-09-01

Terrorism and counterterrorism have both been evolving rapidly. From time to time, there have been debates on whether the new terrorism is evolutionary or revolutionary. Such debate often becomes more heated after major terrorist activities, such as the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 and the November 13, 2015 coordinated Paris terror attack. Using country-wide terrorism data since 1970, we show that there exist scaling laws governing the continuity and persistence of world-wide terrorism, with the long-term scaling parameter for each country closely related to its yearly global terrorism index. This suggests that the new terrorism is more accurately considered evolutionary. It is further shown that the imbalance in the seesaw of terrorism and counterterrorism is not only responsible for the scaling behavior found here, but also provides new means of quantifying the severity of the global terrorism.

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

A Cross-Scale Model for 3D Baroclinic Circulation in Estuary-Plume-Shelf Systems. 2. Application to the Columbia River

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Baptista, Antonio M; Zhang, Yinglong; Chawla, Arun; Zulauf, Mike; Seaton, Charles; Myers, III, Edward P; Kindle, John; Wilkin, Michael; Burla, Michaela; Turner, Paul J

2005-01-01

This article is the second of a two-part paper on ELCIRC, an Eulerian-Lagrangian finite difference/finite volume model designed to simulate 3D baroclinic circulation across river-to-ocean scales. In part one (Zhang et al., 2004...

Exploring the possibilities of the advection of temperature to diagnose the influence of changes in the atmospheric circulation on global temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vidal, O.; Gimeno, L.; Ribera, P. [Vigo Univ., Orense (Spain). Dept. of Applied Physics; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.; Gallego, D. [Complutense Univ., Madrid (Spain). Dept. of Atmospheric Physics

2001-07-01

The advection of temperature (AT) at three different pressure levels was calculated for the period of 1958 to 1998 to test the hypothesis that the origin global temperature increase during the past decade was caused by changes in global circulation. The relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature has been widely studied. They have a common oscillation in the bands of 2 and 4 years. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may also account for regional surface warming over Europe and Asia and for cooling over the northwestern Atlantic. Important correlations were found between most of the Northern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Arctic Oscillation and between most of the Southern Hemisphere and Global AT series with the Antarctic Oscillation. Poor correlations were found with El Nino-Southern Oscillation even for belts between 0 and 30 degrees and for the lower troposphere. 8 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Satbir; You, Donghyun

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A new SGS model is developed for LES of turbulent flows in complex geometries. ► A dynamic global-coefficient SGS model is coupled with a scale-similarity model. ► Overcome some of difficulties associated with eddy-viscosity closures. ► Does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for stabilization. ► The predictive capability is demonstrated in a number of turbulent flow simulations. -- Abstract: A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale eddy-viscosity model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometries is developed. In the present model, the subgrid-scale stress is decomposed into the modified Leonard stress, cross stress, and subgrid-scale Reynolds stress. The modified Leonard stress is explicitly computed assuming a scale similarity, while the cross stress and the subgrid-scale Reynolds stress are modeled using the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model. The model coefficient is determined by a dynamic procedure based on the global-equilibrium between the subgrid-scale dissipation and the viscous dissipation. The new model relieves some of the difficulties associated with an eddy-viscosity closure, such as the nonalignment of the principal axes of the subgrid-scale stress tensor and the strain rate tensor and the anisotropy of turbulent flow fields, while, like other dynamic global-coefficient models, it does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for numerical stabilization. The combination of the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model and a scale-similarity model is demonstrated to produce improved predictions in a number of turbulent flow simulations

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2010-12-15

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

The Lifespan Self-Esteem Scale: Initial Validation of a New Measure of Global Self-Esteem.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Michelle A; Donnellan, M Brent; Trzesniewski, Kali H

2018-01-01

This article introduces the Lifespan Self-Esteem Scale (LSE), a short measure of global self-esteem suitable for populations drawn from across the lifespan. Many existing measures of global self-esteem cannot be used across multiple developmental periods due to changes in item content, response formats, and other scale characteristics. This creates a need for a new lifespan scale so that changes in global self-esteem over time can be studied without confounding maturational changes with alterations in the measure. The LSE is a 4-item measure with a 5-point response format using items inspired by established self-esteem scales. The scale is essentially unidimensional and internally consistent, and it converges with existing self-esteem measures across ages 5 to 93 (N = 2,714). Thus, the LSE appears to be a useful measure of global self-esteem suitable for use across the lifespan as well as contexts where a short measure is desirable, such as populations with short attention spans or large projects assessing multiple constructs. Moreover, the LSE is one of the first global self-esteem scales to be validated for children younger than age 8, which provides the opportunity to broaden the field to include research on early formation and development of global self-esteem, an area that has previously been limited.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission: Monitoring the Global Tropics for 3 Years and Beyond. 1.1

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, Marshall; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was launched in November 1997 as a joint U.S.-Japanese mission to advance understanding of the global energy and water cycle by providing distributions of rainfall and latent heating over the global tropics. As a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise, TRMM seeks to understand the mechanisms through which changes in tropical rainfall influence global circulation. Additionally, a goal is to improve the ability to model these processes in order to predict global circulations and rainfall variability at monthly and longer time scales. Such understanding has implications for assessing climate processes related to El Nino/La Nina and Global Warming. TRMM has also provided unexpected and exciting new knowledge and applications in areas related to hurricane monitoring, lightning, pollution, hydrology, and other areas. This CD-ROM includes a self-contained PowerPoint presentation that provides an overview of TRMM and significant science results; a set of data movies or animation; and listings of current TRMM-related publications in the literature.

The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2011-11-15

In this study the potential future changes in different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed, focussing on the role of the different mechanisms leading to these changes. In addition, these changes as well as the underlying mechanisms are compared to the corresponding changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming exceeding 4.5 C, associated with the widely used SRES A1B scenario. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (2020-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times. In the other set of simulations (1860-2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. The study reveals marked changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial conditions, namely an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation despite a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation. The increase in the monsoon rainfall is related to a variety of different mechanisms, with the intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region as the most important one. The weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation is mainly caused by changes in the Walker circulation with large-scale divergence (convergence) in the lower (upper) troposphere over the Indian Ocean in response to enhanced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific and reduced convective activity over the western tropical Pacific. These changes in the Walker circulation induce westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at

Cascade of circulations in fluid turbulence.

Science.gov (United States)

Eyink, Gregory L

2006-12-01

Kelvin's theorem on conservation of circulations is an essential ingredient of Taylor's theory of turbulent energy dissipation by the process of vortex-line stretching. In previous work, we have proposed a nonlinear mechanism for the breakdown of Kelvin's theorem in ideal turbulence at infinite Reynolds number. We develop here a detailed physical theory of this cascade of circulations. Our analysis is based upon an effective equation for large-scale coarse-grained velocity, which contains a turbulent-induced vortex force that can violate Kelvin's theorem. We show that singularities of sufficient strength, which are observed to exist in turbulent flow, can lead to nonvanishing dissipation of circulation for an arbitrarily small coarse-graining length in the effective equations. This result is an analog for circulation of Onsager's theorem on energy dissipation for singular Euler solutions. The physical mechanism of the breakdown of Kelvin's theorem is diffusion of lines of large-scale vorticity out of the advected loop. This phenomenon can be viewed as a classical analog of the Josephson-Anderson phase-slip phenomenon in superfluids due to quantized vortex lines. We show that the circulation cascade is local in scale and use this locality to develop concrete expressions for the turbulent vortex force by a multiscale gradient expansion. We discuss implications for Taylor's theory of turbulent dissipation and we point out some related cascade phenomena, in particular for magnetic flux in magnetohydrodynamic turbulence.

Fisher Grading Scale Associated with Language Disorders in Patients with Anterior Circulation Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

de Souza, Moysés Loiola Ponte; Vieira, Ana Cláudia C; Andrade, Gustavo; Quinino, Saul; de Fátima Leal Griz, Maria; Azevedo-Filho, Hildo R C

2015-08-01

To associate the presence of language deficits with varying scores of the Fisher grading scale in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage in the period preceding the treatment of aneurysm in the anterior circulation, as well as to compare the scores of this scale, identifying the grades more associated with the decline of language. Database analysis of 185 preoperative evaluations of language, through the Montreal Toulouse Protocol Alpha version and verbal fluency through CERAD battery, of patients from "Hospital da Restauração" with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, divided according to the Fisher grading scale (Fisher I, II, III, or IV) and compared with a control group of individuals considered normal. The various scores of the Fisher grading scale have different levels of language deficits, more pronounced as the amount of blood increases. Fisher III and IV scores are most associated with the decline of language. Our study made it possible to obtain information not yet available in the literature, by correlating the various scores of the Fisher grading scale with language yet in the period preceding treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Radiocarbon constraints on the glacial ocean circulation and its impact on atmospheric CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Skinner, L. C.; Primeau, F.; Freeman, E.; de la Fuente, M.; Goodwin, P. A.; Gottschalk, J.; Huang, E.; McCave, I. N.; Noble, T. L.; Scrivner, A. E.

2017-01-01

While the ocean’s large-scale overturning circulation is thought to have been significantly different under the climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the exact nature of the glacial circulation and its implications for global carbon cycling continue to be debated. Here we use a global array of ocean–atmosphere radiocarbon disequilibrium estimates to demonstrate a ∼689±53 14C-yr increase in the average residence time of carbon in the deep ocean at the LGM. A predominantly southern-sourced abyssal overturning limb that was more isolated from its shallower northern counterparts is interpreted to have extended from the Southern Ocean, producing a widespread radiocarbon age maximum at mid-depths and depriving the deep ocean of a fast escape route for accumulating respired carbon. While the exact magnitude of the resulting carbon cycle impacts remains to be confirmed, the radiocarbon data suggest an increase in the efficiency of the biological carbon pump that could have accounted for as much as half of the glacial–interglacial CO2 change. PMID:28703126

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

Dynamics of large scale 3-dimensional circulation of the Indian Ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Swapna, P.

-diagnostic and prognostic modes. Such a model could identify both the local and remote forcing of the Indian Ocean circulation. The other objectives of the thesis are the following: (i) To study the steady state 3-dimensional circulation of Indian Ocean based on semi...

Combining observations and models to reduce uncertainty in the cloud response to global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Norris, J. R.; Myers, T.; Chellappan, S.

2017-12-01

Currently there is large uncertainty on how subtropical low-level clouds will respond to global warming and whether they will act as a positive feedback or negative feedback. Global climate models substantially agree on what changes in atmospheric structure and circulation will occur with global warming but greatly disagree over how clouds will respond to these changes in structure and circulation. An examination of models with the most realistic simulations of low-level cloudiness indicates that the model cloud response to atmospheric changes associated with global warming is quantitatively similar to the model cloud response to atmospheric changes at interannual time scales. For these models, the cloud response to global warming predicted by multilinear regression using coefficients derived from interannual time scales is quantitatively similar to the cloud response to global warming directly simulated by the model. Since there is a large spread among cloud response coefficients even among models with the most realistic cloud simulations, substitution of coefficients derived from satellite observations reduces the uncertainty range of the low-level cloud feedback. Increased sea surface temperature associated with global warming acts to reduce low-level cloudiness, which is partially offset by increased lower tropospheric stratification that acts to enhance low-level cloudiness. Changes in free-tropospheric relative humidity, subsidence, and horizontal advection have only a small impact on low-level cloud. The net reduction in subtropical low-level cloudiness increases absorption of solar radiation by the climate system, thus resulting in a weak positive feedback.

Impact of changes in river fluxes of silica on the global marine silicon cycle: a model comparison

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Y. Bernard

2010-02-01

Full Text Available The availability of dissolved silica (Si in the ocean provides a major control on the growth of siliceous phytoplankton. Diatoms in particular account for a large proportion of oceanic primary production. The original source of the silica is rock weathering, followed by transport of dissolved and biogenic silica to the coastal zone. This model study aims at assessing the sensitivity of the global marine silicon cycle to variations in the river input of silica on timescales ranging from several centuries to millennia. We compare the performance of a box model for the marine silicon cycle to that of a global biogeochemical ocean general circulation model (HAMOCC2 and 5. Results indicate that the average global ocean response to changes in river input of silica is comparable in the models on time scales up to 150 kyrs. While the trends in export production and opal burial are the same, the box model shows a delayed response to the imposed perturbations compared to the general circulation model. Results of both models confirm the important role of the continental margins as a sink for silica at the global scale. Our work also demonstrates that the effects of changes in riverine dissolved silica on ocean biogeochemistry depend on the availability of the other nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and iron. The model results suggest that the effects of reduced silica inputs due to river damming are particularly pronounced in the Gulf of Bengal, Gulf of Mexico and the Amazon plume where they negatively affect opal production. While general circulation models are indispensable when assessing the spatial variation in opal export production and biogenic Si burial in the ocean, this study demonstrates that box models provide a good alternative when studying the average global ocean response to perturbations of the oceanic silica cycle (especially on longer time scales.

Nonstandard scaling law of fluctuations in finite-size systems of globally coupled oscillators.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishikawa, Isao; Tanaka, Gouhei; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2013-08-01

Universal scaling laws form one of the central issues in physics. A nonstandard scaling law or a breakdown of a standard scaling law, on the other hand, can often lead to the finding of a new universality class in physical systems. Recently, we found that a statistical quantity related to fluctuations follows a nonstandard scaling law with respect to the system size in a synchronized state of globally coupled nonidentical phase oscillators [I. Nishikawa et al., Chaos 22, 013133 (2012)]. However, it is still unclear how widely this nonstandard scaling law is observed. In the present paper, we discuss the conditions required for the unusual scaling law in globally coupled oscillator systems and validate the conditions by numerical simulations of several different models.

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Vane, Deborah

1993-01-01

A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on Fire Outbreaks in the Amazon Region

Science.gov (United States)

Pires, L. B. M.; Romao, M.; Freitas, A. C. V.

2017-12-01

The combination of alterations in land use cover and severe droughts may dramatically increase fire outbreaks. Tropical convection in the Amazon Basin is regulated mainly by large-scale atmospheric systems such as the Walker circulation. Many of the documented drought episodes in the Amazon occurred during intense El Niño events such as those recorded in 1926, 1983, 1997-1998, and 2010. However, not all El Niño events are related to drought in the Amazon. Recent studies have also pointed out the importance of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the modulation of the Amazonian climate, as observed during the drought episodes in 2005 and 2010. This work investigates the fire outbreak tendency in the Amazon region, and the influence of large-scale circulation on these events. Data from the Fire Program of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE) show a substantial increase in the number of fire outbreaks in the last few years, especially during 2016. However, in the 2017 year a sharp drop in fire outbreaks reaching levels similar to the years prior to 2016 is being noted, already showing a reduction of 54% in relation to the preceding 2016 year. The 2015-2016 period was marked by one of the strongest El Niño in history. This was reflected in the increase of the number of fire outbreaks due to the increase of the drought and temperature elevation period. On the other hand, the 2017 year is being characterized by a condition of neutrality in relation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, and have overall presented positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Variations of these systems and their relation to fire outbreaks is demonstrated.

THOR: A NEW AND FLEXIBLE GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL TO EXPLORE PLANETARY ATMOSPHERES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendonça, João M.; Grimm, Simon L.; Grosheintz, Luc; Heng, Kevin, E-mail: joao.mendonca@csh.unibe.ch, E-mail: kevin.heng@csh.unibe.ch [University of Bern, Center for Space and Habitability, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012, Bern (Switzerland)

2016-10-01

We have designed and developed, from scratch, a global circulation model (GCM) named THOR that solves the three-dimensional nonhydrostatic Euler equations. Our general approach lifts the commonly used assumptions of a shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic equilibrium. We solve the “pole problem” (where converging meridians on a sphere lead to increasingly smaller time steps near the poles) by implementing an icosahedral grid. Irregularities in the grid, which lead to grid imprinting, are smoothed using the “spring dynamics” technique. We validate our implementation of spring dynamics by examining calculations of the divergence and gradient of test functions. To prevent the computational time step from being bottlenecked by having to resolve sound waves, we implement a split-explicit method together with a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit integration. We validate our GCM by reproducing the Earth and hot-Jupiter-like benchmark tests. THOR was designed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs), which allows for physics modules (radiative transfer, clouds, chemistry) to be added in the future, and is part of the open-source Exoclimes Simulation Platform (www.exoclime.org).

THOR: A NEW AND FLEXIBLE GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL TO EXPLORE PLANETARY ATMOSPHERES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendonça, João M.; Grimm, Simon L.; Grosheintz, Luc; Heng, Kevin

2016-01-01

We have designed and developed, from scratch, a global circulation model (GCM) named THOR that solves the three-dimensional nonhydrostatic Euler equations. Our general approach lifts the commonly used assumptions of a shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic equilibrium. We solve the “pole problem” (where converging meridians on a sphere lead to increasingly smaller time steps near the poles) by implementing an icosahedral grid. Irregularities in the grid, which lead to grid imprinting, are smoothed using the “spring dynamics” technique. We validate our implementation of spring dynamics by examining calculations of the divergence and gradient of test functions. To prevent the computational time step from being bottlenecked by having to resolve sound waves, we implement a split-explicit method together with a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit integration. We validate our GCM by reproducing the Earth and hot-Jupiter-like benchmark tests. THOR was designed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs), which allows for physics modules (radiative transfer, clouds, chemistry) to be added in the future, and is part of the open-source Exoclimes Simulation Platform (www.exoclime.org).

Towards understanding resprouting at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Pausas, Juli G.; Pratt, R. Brandon; Keeley, Jon E.; Jacobsen, Anna L.; Ramirez, Aaron R.; Vilagrosa, Alberto; Paula, Susana; Kanekua-Pia, Iolana N.; Davis, Stephen D.

2016-01-01

Understanding and predicting plant response to disturbance is of paramount importance in our changing world. Resprouting ability is often considered a simple qualitative trait and used in many ecological studies. Our aim is to show some of the complexities of resprouting while highlighting cautions that need be taken in using resprouting ability to predict vegetation responses across disturbance types and biomes. There are marked differences in resprouting depending on the disturbance type, and fire is often the most severe disturbance because it includes both defoliation and lethal temperatures. In the Mediterranean biome, there are differences in functional strategies to cope with water deficit between resprouters (dehydration avoiders) and nonresprouters (dehydration tolerators); however, there is little research to unambiguously extrapolate these results to other biomes. Furthermore, predictions of vegetation responses to changes in disturbance regimes require consideration not only of resprouting, but also other relevant traits (e.g. seeding, bark thickness) and the different correlations among traits observed in different biomes; models lacking these details would behave poorly at the global scale. Overall, the lessons learned from a given disturbance regime and biome (e.g. crown-fire Mediterranean ecosystems) can guide research in other ecosystems but should not be extrapolated at the global scale.

Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, FA

2011-12-01

Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

Multimillennium changes in dissolved oxygen under global warming: results from an AOGCM and offline ocean biogeochemical model

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.

Statistical dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations for geophysical flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Kane, T J; Frederiksen, J S

2008-01-01

Simulations of both atmospheric and oceanic circulations at given finite resolutions are strongly dependent on the form and strengths of the dynamical subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) and in particular are sensitive to subgrid-scale transient eddies interacting with the retained scale topography and the mean flow. In this paper, we present numerical results for SSPs of the eddy-topographic force, stochastic backscatter, eddy viscosity and eddy-mean field interaction using an inhomogeneous statistical turbulence model based on a quasi-diagonal direct interaction approximation (QDIA). Although the theoretical description on which our model is based is for general barotropic flows, we specifically focus on global atmospheric flows where large-scale Rossby waves are present. We compare and contrast the closure-based results with an important earlier heuristic SSP of the eddy-topographic force, based on maximum entropy or statistical canonical equilibrium arguments, developed specifically for general ocean circulation models (Holloway 1992 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 22 1033-46). Our results demonstrate that where strong zonal flows and Rossby waves are present, such as in the atmosphere, maximum entropy arguments are insufficient to accurately parameterize the subgrid contributions due to eddy-eddy, eddy-topographic and eddy-mean field interactions. We contrast our atmospheric results with findings for the oceans. Our study identifies subgrid-scale interactions that are currently not parameterized in numerical atmospheric climate models, which may lead to systematic defects in the simulated circulations.

Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

OpenAIRE

Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Kader, M. Abdel; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

2012-01-01

Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a global...

Boundary layer circulation in disk-halo galaxies. III. The dispersion relation for local disturbances and large-scale spiral waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waxman, A.M.

1980-01-01

This paper concerns the geometry and physical properties of waves which arise from a shear-flow (i.e. inflection point) instability of the galactic boundary layer circulation. This circulation was shown to exist in the meridional plane of a model galaxy containing a gaseous disk embedded in a rotating gaseous halo. Previously derived equations describe the local effects of Boussinesq perturbations, in the form of spiral waves with aribitrary pitch angle, on the model disk-halo system. The equations are solved asymptotically for large values of the local Reynolds number. In passing to the limit of inviscid waves, it is possible to derive a locally valid dispersion relation. A perturbation technique is developed whereby the inviscid wave eigenvalues can be corrected for the effects of small but finite viscosity. In this way the roles of the buoyancy force, Coriolis acceleration, viscous stresses, and their interactions can be studied. It is found that, locally, the most unstable inviscid waves are leading and open with large azimuthal wavenumbers. However, these waves display little or no coherence over the face of the disk and so would not emerge as modes in a global analysis.The geometry of the dominant inviscid waves is found to be leading, tightly wound spirals. Viscous corrections shift the dominant wave form to trailing, tightly wound spirals with small azimuthal wavenumbers. These waves grow on a time scale of about 10 7 years. It is suggested that these waves can initiate spiral structure in galaxies during disk formation and that a subsequent transition to a self-gravitating acoustical mode with the same spiral geometry may occur. This transition becomes possible once the contrast in gas densities between the disk and surrounding halo becomes sufficiently large

Fine-scale heat flow, shallow heat sources, and decoupled circulation systems at two sea-floor hydrothermal sites, Middle Valley, northern Juan de Fuca Ridge

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Stein, J. S.; Fisher, A. T.; Langseth, M.; Jin, W.; Iturrino, G.; Davis, E.

1998-12-01

Fine-scale heat-flow patterns at two areas of active venting in Middle Valley, a sedimented rift on the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge, provide thermal evidence of shallow hydrothermal reservoirs beneath the vent fields. The extreme variability of heat flow is explained by conductive heating immediately adjacent to vents and shallow circulation within sediments above the reservoir. This secondary circulation is hydrologically separated from the deeper system feeding the vents by a shallow conductive lid within the sediments. A similar separation of shallow and deep circulation may also occur at sediment-free ridge-crest hydrothermal environments.

Large- to submesoscale surface circulation and its implications on biogeochemical/biological horizontal distributions during the OUTPACE cruise (southwest Pacific)

Science.gov (United States)

Rousselet, Louise; de Verneil, Alain; Doglioli, Andrea M.; Petrenko, Anne A.; Duhamel, Solange; Maes, Christophe; Blanke, Bruno

2018-04-01

The patterns of the large-scale, meso- and submesoscale surface circulation on biogeochemical and biological distributions are examined in the western tropical South Pacific (WTSP) in the context of the OUTPACE cruise (February-April 2015). Multi-disciplinary original in situ observations were achieved along a zonal transect through the WTSP and their analysis was coupled with satellite data. The use of Lagrangian diagnostics allows for the identification of water mass pathways, mesoscale structures, and submesoscale features such as fronts. In particular, we confirmed the existence of a global wind-driven southward circulation of surface waters in the entire WTSP, using a new high-resolution altimetry-derived product, validated by in situ drifters, that includes cyclogeostrophy and Ekman components with geostrophy. The mesoscale activity is shown to be responsible for counter-intuitive water mass trajectories in two subregions: (i) the Coral Sea, with surface exchanges between the North Vanuatu Jet and the North Caledonian Jet, and (ii) around 170° W, with an eastward pathway, whereas a westward general direction dominates. Fronts and small-scale features, detected with finite-size Lyapunov exponents (FSLEs), are correlated with 25 % of surface tracer gradients, which reveals the significance of such structures in the generation of submesoscale surface gradients. Additionally, two high-frequency sampling transects of biogeochemical parameters and microorganism abundances demonstrate the influence of fronts in controlling the spatial distribution of bacteria and phytoplankton, and as a consequence the microbial community structure. All circulation scales play an important role that has to be taken into account not only when analysing the data from OUTPACE but also, more generally, for understanding the global distribution of biogeochemical components.

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

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Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

Watershed scale response to climate change--Trout Lake Basin, Wisconsin

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation.

Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Workshop Series: Identifying gaps and needs for improving large-scale biodiversity models

Science.gov (United States)

Weiskopf, S. R.; Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.

2017-12-01

At the global scale, well-accepted global circulation models and agreed-upon scenarios for future climate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are available. In contrast, biodiversity modeling at the global scale lacks analogous tools. While there is great interest in development of similar bodies and efforts for international monitoring and modelling of biodiversity at the global scale, equivalent modelling tools are in their infancy. This lack of global biodiversity models compared to the extensive array of general circulation models provides a unique opportunity to bring together climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts to promote development of integrated approaches in modeling global biodiversity. Improved models are needed to understand how we are progressing towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, many of which are not on track to meet the 2020 goal, threatening global biodiversity conservation, monitoring, and sustainable use. We brought together biodiversity, climate, and remote sensing experts to try to 1) identify lessons learned from the climate community that can be used to improve global biodiversity models; 2) explore how NASA and other remote sensing products could be better integrated into global biodiversity models and 3) advance global biodiversity modeling, prediction, and forecasting to inform the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. The 1st In-Person meeting focused on determining a roadmap for effective assessment of biodiversity model projections and forecasts by 2030 while integrating and assimilating remote sensing data and applying lessons learned, when appropriate, from climate modeling. Here, we present the outcomes and lessons learned from our first E-discussion and in-person meeting and discuss the next steps for future meetings.

Global hydrobelts: improved reporting scale for water-related issues?

Science.gov (United States)

Meybeck, M.; Kummu, M.; Dürr, H. H.

2012-08-01

Questions related to water such as its availability, water needs or stress, or management, are mapped at various resolutions at the global scale. They are reported at many scales, mostly along political or continental boundaries. As such, they ignore the fundamental heterogeneity of the hydroclimate and the natural boundaries of the river basins. Here, we describe the continental landmasses according to eight global-scale hydrobelts strictly limited by river basins, defined at a 30' (0.5°) resolution. The belts were defined and delineated, based primarily on the annual average temperature (T) and runoff (q), to maximise interbelt differences and minimise intrabelt variability. The belts were further divided into 29 hydroregions based on continental limits. This new global puzzle defines homogeneous and near-contiguous entities with similar hydrological and thermal regimes, glacial and postglacial basin histories, endorheism distribution and sensitivity to climate variations. The Mid-Latitude, Dry and Subtropical belts have northern and southern analogues and a general symmetry can be observed for T and q between them. The Boreal and Equatorial belts are unique. The hydroregions (median size 4.7 Mkm2) contrast strongly, with the average q ranging between 6 and 1393 mm yr-1 and the average T between -9.7 and +26.3 °C. Unlike the hydroclimate, the population density between the North and South belts and between the continents varies greatly, resulting in pronounced differences between the belts with analogues in both hemispheres. The population density ranges from 0.7 to 0.8 p km-2 for the North American Boreal and some Australian hydroregions to 280 p km-2 for the Asian part of the Northern Mid-Latitude belt. The combination of population densities and hydroclimate features results in very specific expressions of water-related characteristics in each of the 29 hydroregions. Our initial tests suggest that hydrobelt and hydroregion divisions are often more

Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance

Biogeochemical proxies in Scleractinian corals used to reconstruct ocean circulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guilderson, T.P.; Kashgarian, M.; Schrag, D.P.

2002-01-01

We utilize monthly 14 C data derived from coral archives in conjunction with ocean circulation models to address two questions: 1) how does the shallow circulation of the tropical Pacific vary on seasonal to decadal time scales and 2) which dynamic processes determine the mean vertical structure of the equatorial Pacific thermocline. Our results directly impact the understanding of global climate events such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To study changes in ocean circulation and water mass distribution involved in the genesis and evolution of ENSO and decadal climate variability, it is necessary to have records of climate variables several decades in length. Continuous instrumental records are limited because technology for continuous monitoring of ocean currents has only recently been available, and ships of opportunity archives such as COADS contain large spatial and temporal biases. In addition, temperature and salinity in surface waters are not conservative and thus can not be independently relied upon to trace water masses, reducing the utility of historical observations. Radiocarbon ( 14 C) in sea water is a quasi-conservative water mass tracer and is incorporated into coral skeletal material, thus coral 14 C records can be used to reconstruct changes in shallow circulation that would be difficult to characterize using instrumental data. High resolution Δ 14 C time-series such as these, provide a powerful constraint on the rate of surface ocean mixing and hold great promise to augment onetime surveys such as GEOSECS and WOCE. These data not only provide fundamental information about the shallow circulation of the Pacific, but can be used as a benchmark for the next generation of high resolution ocean models used in prognosticating climate change. (author)

Terrestrial nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions at the global scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaehle, S

2013-07-05

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen-carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO2 fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001-2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr(-1) (1.9 Pg C yr(-1)), of which 10 Tg N yr(-1) (0.2 Pg C yr(-1)) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO2 fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen-carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. However, increases of N2O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr(-1) per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing.

Revisiting Gill's Circulation. Dynamic Response to Diabatic Heating of Different Horizontal Extents

Science.gov (United States)

Reboredo, B.; Bellon, G.

2017-12-01

The horizontal extent of diabatic heating associated with the MJO is thought to be crucial to its development, and the inability of GCMs to simulate the spatial, horizontal organization of clouds is considered a leading hypothesis to explain their limited capacity to simulate MJO events. This prevents the MJO large-circulation response from developing and feeding back on the development of clouds. We apply mid-tropospheric heating of different size in simple linear and non-linear models of the tropical atmosphere following Gill's seminal work on heat-induced tropical circulations. Results show that there is a scale for which the characteristic circulation {Γ c} for the vertical advection of moisture to produce the latent heat mean {Q} gives a rough estimate of the real world MJO scale. Overturning circulation flow rates above {Γ c} account for a circulation that transports more moisture than necessary to be maintained, and below {Γ c}, circulation would not transport enough moisture to maintain circulation. This dynamic scale might constrain the size of the spatially-organised convection necessary to the development of an MJO event. However, other effects are expected to modulate this scale, such as vertical advection of moisture anomalies, horizontal advection, evaporation, radiative heating, and sensible heat fluxes.

Dominant Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Systems for the Extreme Precipitation over the Western Sichuan Basin in Summer 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yamin Hu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The western Sichuan Basin (WSB is a rainstorm center influenced by complicated factors such as topography and circulation. Based on multivariable empirical orthogonal function technique for extreme precipitation processes (EPP in WSB in 2013, this study reveals the dominant circulation patterns. Results indicate that the leading modes are characterized by “Saddle” and “Sandwich” structures, respectively. In one mode, a TC from the South China Sea (SCS converts into the inverted trough and steers warm moist airflow northward into the WSB. At the same time, WPSH extends westward over the Yangtze River and conveys a southeasterly warm humid flow. In the other case, WPSH is pushed westward by TC in the Western Pacific and then merges with an anomalous anticyclone over SCS. The anomalous anticyclone and WPSH form a conjunction belt and convey the warm moist southwesterly airflow to meet with the cold flow over the WSB. The configurations of WPSH and TC in the tropic and the blocking and trough in the midhigh latitudes play important roles during the EPPs over the WSB. The persistence of EPPs depends on the long-lived large-scale circulation configuration steady over the suitable positions.

Ocean Hydrodynamics Numerical Model in Curvilinear Coordinates for Simulating Circulation of the Global Ocean and its Separate Basins.

Science.gov (United States)

Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

2010-05-01

The original program complex is proposed for the ocean circulation sigma-model, developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). The complex can be used in various curvilinear orthogonal coordinate systems. In addition to ocean circulation model, the complex contains a sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics model, as well as the original system of the atmospheric forcing implementation on the basis of both prescribed meteodata and atmospheric model results. This complex can be used as the oceanic block of Earth climate model as well as for solving the scientific and practical problems concerning the World ocean and its separate oceans and seas. The developed program complex can be effectively used on parallel shared memory computational systems and on contemporary personal computers. On the base of the complex proposed the ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was developed. The model is realized in the curvilinear orthogonal coordinate system obtained by the conformal transformation of the standard geographical grid that allowed us to locate the system singularities outside the integration domain. The horizontal resolution of the OGCM is 1 degree on longitude, 0.5 degree on latitude, and it has 40 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model was integrated for 100 years starting from the Levitus January climatology using the realistic atmospheric annual cycle calculated on the base of CORE datasets. The experimental results showed us that the model adequately reproduces the basic characteristics of large-scale World Ocean dynamics, that is in good agreement with both observational data and results of the best climatic OGCMs. This OGCM is used as the oceanic component of the new version of climatic system model (CSM) developed in INM RAS. The latter is now ready for carrying out the new numerical experiments on climate and its change modelling according to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in the

The benefits of global scaling in multi-criteria decision analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jamie P. Monat

2009-10-01

Full Text Available When there are multiple competing objectives in a decision-making process, Multi-Attribute Choice scoring models are excellent tools, permitting the incorporation of both subjective and objective attributes. However, their accuracy depends upon the subjective techniques used to construct the attribute scales and their concomitant weights. Conventional techniques using local scales tend to overemphasize small differences in attribute measures, which may yield erroneous conclusions. The Range Sensitivity Principle (RSP is often invoked to adjust attribute weights when local scales are used. In practice, however, decision makers often do not follow the prescriptions of the Range Sensitivity Principle and under-adjust the weights, resulting in potentially poor decisions. Examples are discussed as is a proposed solution: the use of global scales instead of local scales.

Large scale circulation in the convection zone and solar differential rotation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belvedere, G [Instituto di Astronomia dell' Universita di Catania, 95125 Italy; Paterno, L [Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania, 95125 Italy

1976-04-01

In this paper the dependence on depth and latitude of the solar angular velocity produced by a meridian circulation in the convection zone is studied assuming that the main mechanism responsible for setting up and driving the circulation is the interaction of rotation with convection. The first order equations (perturbation of the spherically symmetric state are solved in the Boussinesq approximation and in the steady state for the axissymmetric case. The interaction of convection with rotation is modelled by a convective transport coefficient. The model is consistent with the fact that the interaction of convection with rotation sets up a circulation (driven by the temperature gradient) which carries angular momentum toward the equator against the viscous friction. Unfortunately also a large flux variation at the surface is obtained. Nevertheless it seems that the model has the basic requisites for correct dynamo action.

On global H-mode scaling laws for JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kardaun, O.; Lackner, K.; Thomsen, K.; Christiansen, J.; Cordey, J.; Gottardi, N.; Keilhacker, M.; Smeulders, P.

1989-01-01

Investigation of the scaling of the energy confinement time τ E with various plasma parameters has since long been an interesting, albeit not uncontroversial topic in plasma physics. Various global scaling laws have been derived for ohmic as well as (NBI and/or RF heated) L-mode discharges. Due to the scarce availability of computerised, extensive and validated H-mode datasets, systematic statistical analysis of H-mode scaling behaviour has hitherto been limited. A common approach is to fit the available H-mode data by an L-mode scaling law (e.g., Kaye-Goldston, Rebut-Lallia) with one or two adjustable constant terms. In this contribution we will consider the alternative approach of fitting all free parameters of various simple scaling models to two recently compiled datasets consisting of about 140 ELM-free and 40 ELMy H-mode discharges, measured at JET in the period 1986-1988. From this period, approximately all known H-mode shots have been included that satisfy the following criteria: D-injected D + discharges with no RF heating, a sufficiently long (≥300 ms) and regular P NBI flat-top, and validated main diagnostics. (author) 13 refs., 1 tab

Water dependency and water exploitation at global scale as indicators of water security

Science.gov (United States)

De Roo, A. P. J.; Beck, H.; Burek, P.; Bernard, B.

2015-12-01

A water dependency index has been developed indicating the dependency of water consumption from upstream sources of water, sometimes across (multiple) national border. This index is calculated at global scale using the 0.1 global LISFLOOD hydrological modelling system forced by WFDEI meteorological data for the timeframe 1979-2012. The global LISFLOOD model simulates the most important hydrological processes, as well as water abstraction and consumption from various sectors, and flood routing, at daily scale, with sub-timesteps for routing and subgrid parameterization related to elevation and landuse. The model contains also options for water allocation, to allow preferences of water use for particular sectors in water scarce periods. LISFLOOD is also used for the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), continental scale climate change impact studies on floods and droughts. The water dependency indicator is calculated on a monthly basis, and various annual and multiannual indicators are derived from it. In this study, the indicator will be compared against water security areas known from other studies. Other indicators calculated are the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+), which is a commonly use water security indicator in Europe, and freshwater resources per capita indicators at regional, national and river basin scale. Several climate scnearios are run to indicate future trends in water security.

Robust Hadley Circulation Changes and Increasing Global Dryness Due to CO2 Warming from CMIP-5 Model Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness under CO2 warming from CMIP-5 model projections. We find a strengthening of the ascending branch of the HC manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, increased high clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hectopascals) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence, reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among water cycle parameters examined, global dryness has the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide scientific bases for inferring that the observed tend of prolonged droughts in recent decades is likely attributable to greenhouse warming.

Mesoscale Effects on Carbon Export: A Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Cheryl S.; Long, Matthew C.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Moore, Jefferson K.

2018-04-01

Carbon export from the surface to the deep ocean is a primary control on global carbon budgets and is mediated by plankton that are sensitive to physical forcing. Earth system models generally do not resolve ocean mesoscale circulation (O(10-100) km), scales that strongly affect transport of nutrients and plankton. The role of mesoscale circulation in modulating export is evaluated by comparing global ocean simulations conducted at 1° and 0.1° horizontal resolution. Mesoscale resolution produces a small reduction in globally integrated export production (export production can be large (±50%), with compensating effects in different ocean basins. With mesoscale resolution, improved representation of coastal jets block off-shelf transport, leading to lower export in regions where shelf-derived nutrients fuel production. Export is further reduced in these regions by resolution of mesoscale turbulence, which restricts the spatial area of production. Maximum mixed layer depths are narrower and deeper across the Subantarctic at higher resolution, driving locally stronger nutrient entrainment and enhanced summer export production. In energetic regions with seasonal blooms, such as the Subantarctic and North Pacific, internally generated mesoscale variability drives substantial interannual variation in local export production. These results suggest that biogeochemical tracer dynamics show different sensitivities to transport biases than temperature and salinity, which should be considered in the formulation and validation of physical parameterizations. Efforts to compare estimates of export production from observations and models should account for large variability in space and time expected for regions strongly affected by mesoscale circulation.

Decontamination of CAGR gas circulator components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, L.N.; Hooper, A.J.

1985-01-01

This paper describes the development and full-scale trial of two methods for removal of radioactive contamination on the surfaces of CAGR gas circulator components. The two methods described are a particle impact cleaning (PIC) decontamination technique and an electrochemical technique, 'electro-swabbing', which is based on the principle of decontamination by electro-polishing. In developing these techniques it was necessary to take account of the physical and chemical nature of the surface deposits on the gas circulator components; these were shown to consist of magnetite-type oxide and carbonaceous material. In order to follow the progress of the decontamination it was also necessary to develop a surface sampling technique which was effective and precise under these conditions; an electrochemical technique, employing similar principles to the electro-swabbing process, was developed for this purpose. The full-scale trial of the PIC decontamination technique was carried out on an inlet guide vane (IGV) assembly, this having been identified as the component from the gas circulator which contributes most to the radiation dose accumulated during routine circulator maintenance. The technique was shown to be practically viable and some 99% of the radioactive contamination was readily removed from the treated surfaces with only negligible surface damage being caused. The full-scale trial of the electro-swabbing decontamination technique was carried out on a gas circulator impeller. High decontamination factors were again achieved with ≥ 99% of the radioactive contamination being removed from the treated surfaces. The technique has practical limitations in terms of handling and treatment of waste-arisings. However, the use of specially-designed swabbing electrodes may allow the treatment of constricted geometries inaccessible to techniques such as PIC. The technique is also highly suitable for the treatment of soft-finish materials and of components fabricated from a

The Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM): using scaling to forecast global scale macroweather from months to decades

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.; Hébert, R.

2015-03-01

At scales of ≈ 10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures), there is a drastic transition from high frequency weather to low frequency macroweather. This scale is close to the predictability limits of deterministic atmospheric models; so that in GCM macroweather forecasts, the weather is a high frequency noise. But neither the GCM noise nor the GCM climate is fully realistic. In this paper we show how simple stochastic models can be developped that use empirical data to force the statistics and climate to be realistic so that even a two parameter model can outperform GCM's for annual global temperature forecasts. The key is to exploit the scaling of the dynamics and the enormous stochastic memories that it implies. Since macroweather intermittency is low, we propose using the simplest model based on fractional Gaussian noise (fGn): the Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM). SLIM is based on a stochastic ordinary differential equations, differing from usual linear stochastic models (such as the Linear Inverse Modelling, LIM) in that it is of fractional rather than integer order. Whereas LIM implicitly assumes there is no low frequency memory, SLIM has a huge memory that can be exploited. Although the basic mathematical forecast problem for fGn has been solved, we approach the problem in an original manner notably using the method of innovations to obtain simpler results on forecast skill and on the size of the effective system memory. A key to successful forecasts of natural macroweather variability is to first remove the low frequency anthropogenic component. A previous attempt to use fGn for forecasts had poor results because this was not done. We validate our theory using hindcasts of global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures at monthly and annual resolutions. Several nondimensional measures of forecast skill - with no adjustable parameters - show excellent agreement with hindcasts and these show some skill even at decadal scales. We also compare

The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shepherd, T.G. [ed.

1994-02-01

The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop`s University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database.

The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shepherd, T.G.

1994-02-01

The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop's University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal

A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

OpenAIRE

Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern

2004-01-01

The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing thre...

The (in)effectiveness of Global Land Policies on Large-Scale Land Acquisition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhoog, S.M.

2014-01-01

Due to current crises, large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is becoming a topic of growing concern. Public data from the ‘Land Matrix Global Observatory’ project (Land Matrix 2014a) demonstrates that since 2000, 1,664 large-scale land transactions in low- and middle-income countries were reported,

From Global to Cloud Resolving Scale: Experiments with a Scale- and Aerosol-Aware Physics Package and Impact on Tracer Transport

Science.gov (United States)

Grell, G. A.; Freitas, S. R.; Olson, J.; Bela, M.

2017-12-01

We will start by providing a summary of the latest cumulus parameterization modeling efforts at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) will be presented on both regional and global scales. The physics package includes a scale-aware parameterization of subgrid cloudiness feedback to radiation (coupled PBL, microphysics, radiation, shallow and congestus type convection), the stochastic Grell-Freitas (GF) scale- and aerosol-aware convective parameterization, and an aerosol aware microphysics package. GF is based on a stochastic approach originally implemented by Grell and Devenyi (2002) and described in more detail in Grell and Freitas (2014, ACP). It was expanded to include PDF's for vertical mass flux, as well as modifications to improve the diurnal cycle. This physics package will be used on different scales, spanning global to cloud resolving, to look at the impact on scalar transport and numerical weather prediction.

A high resolution global scale groundwater model

Science.gov (United States)

de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2014-05-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

Should Global Items on Student Rating Scales Be Used for Summative Decisions?

Science.gov (United States)

Berk, Ronald A.

2013-01-01

One of the simplest indicators of teaching or course effectiveness is student ratings on one or more global items from the entire rating scale. That approach seems intuitively sound and easy to use. Global items have even been recommended by a few researchers to get a quick-read, at-a-glance summary for summative decisions about faculty. The…

Precipitable water: Its linear retrieval using leaps and bounds procedure and its global distribution from SEASAT SMMR data

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, P. C.

1982-01-01

Eight subsets using two to five frequencies of the SEASAT scanning multichannel microwave radiometer are examined to determine their potential in the retrieval of atmospheric water vapor content. Analysis indicates that the information concerning the 18 and 21 GHz channels are optimum for water vapor retrieval. A comparison with radiosonde observations gave an rms accuracy of approximately 0.40 g sq cm. The rms accuracy of precipitable water using different subsets was within 10 percent. Global maps of precipitable water over oceans using two and five channel retrieval (average of two and five channel retrieval) are given. Study of these maps reveals the possibility of global moisture distribution associated with oceanic currents and large scale general circulation in the atmosphere. A stable feature of the large scale circulation is noticed. The precipitable water is maximum over the Bay of Bengal and in the North Pacific over the Kuroshio current and shows a general latitudinal pattern.

Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

Science.gov (United States)

Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-01-01

Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-10-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Pacyna

2016-10-01

Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has

Experimental study of natural circulation circuit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemos, Wanderley F.; Su, Jian, E-mail: wlemos@lasme.coppe.ufrj.br, E-mail: sujian@lasme.coppe.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (LASME/COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Simulacao e Metodos Numericos; Faccini, Jose L.H., E-mail: faccini@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (LTE/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Termo-Hidraulica Experimental

2011-07-01

This work presents an experimental study about fluid flows behavior in natural circulation, under conditions of single-phase flow. The experiment was performed through experimental thermal-hydraulic circuit built at IEN. This test equipment has performance similar to passive system of residual heat removal present in Advanced Pressurized Water Reactors (APWR). This experimental study aims to observing and analyzing the natural circulation phenomenon, using this experimental circuit that was dimensioned and built based on concepts of similarity and scale. This philosophy allows the analysis of natural circulation behavior in single-phase flow conditions proportionally to the functioning real conditions of a nuclear reactor. The experiment was performed through procedures to initialization of hydraulic feeding of primary and secondary circuits and electrical energizing of resistors installed inside heater. Power controller has availability to adjust values of electrical power to feeding resistors, in order to portray several conditions of energy decay of nuclear reactor in a steady state. Data acquisition system allows the measurement and monitoring of the evolution of the temperature in various points through thermocouples installed in strategic points along hydraulic circuit. The behavior of the natural circulation phenomenon was monitored by graphical interface on computer screen, showing the temperature evolutions of measuring points and results stored in digital spreadsheets. The results stored in digital spreadsheets allowed the getting of data to graphic construction and discussion about natural circulation phenomenon. Finally, the calculus of Reynolds number allowed the establishment for a correlation of friction in function of geometric scales of length, heights and cross section of tubing, considering a natural circulation flow throughout in the region of hot leg. (author)

Experimental study of natural circulation circuit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemos, Wanderley F.; Su, Jian; Faccini, Jose L.H.

2011-01-01

This work presents an experimental study about fluid flows behavior in natural circulation, under conditions of single-phase flow. The experiment was performed through experimental thermal-hydraulic circuit built at IEN. This test equipment has performance similar to passive system of residual heat removal present in Advanced Pressurized Water Reactors (APWR). This experimental study aims to observing and analyzing the natural circulation phenomenon, using this experimental circuit that was dimensioned and built based on concepts of similarity and scale. This philosophy allows the analysis of natural circulation behavior in single-phase flow conditions proportionally to the functioning real conditions of a nuclear reactor. The experiment was performed through procedures to initialization of hydraulic feeding of primary and secondary circuits and electrical energizing of resistors installed inside heater. Power controller has availability to adjust values of electrical power to feeding resistors, in order to portray several conditions of energy decay of nuclear reactor in a steady state. Data acquisition system allows the measurement and monitoring of the evolution of the temperature in various points through thermocouples installed in strategic points along hydraulic circuit. The behavior of the natural circulation phenomenon was monitored by graphical interface on computer screen, showing the temperature evolutions of measuring points and results stored in digital spreadsheets. The results stored in digital spreadsheets allowed the getting of data to graphic construction and discussion about natural circulation phenomenon. Finally, the calculus of Reynolds number allowed the establishment for a correlation of friction in function of geometric scales of length, heights and cross section of tubing, considering a natural circulation flow throughout in the region of hot leg. (author)

Global Stability of Complex-Valued Genetic Regulatory Networks with Delays on Time Scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Yajing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the global exponential stability of complex-valued genetic regulatory networks with delays is investigated. Besides presenting conditions guaranteeing the existence of a unique equilibrium pattern, its global exponential stability is discussed. Some numerical examples for different time scales.

Irrational Delay Revisited: Examining Five Procrastination Scales in a Global Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Svartdal, Frode; Steel, Piers

2017-01-01

Scales attempting to measure procrastination focus on different facets of the phenomenon, yet they share a common understanding of procrastination as an unnecessary, unwanted, and disadvantageous delay. The present paper examines in a global sample ( N = 4,169) five different procrastination scales - Decisional Procrastination Scale (DPS), Irrational Procrastination Scale (IPS), Pure Procrastination Scale (PPS), Adult Inventory of Procrastination Scale (AIP), and General Procrastination Scale (GPS), focusing on factor structures and item functioning using Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Item Response Theory. The results indicated that The PPS (12 items selected from DPS, AIP, and GPS) measures different facets of procrastination even better than the three scales it is based on. An even shorter version of the PPS (5 items focusing on irrational delay), corresponds well to the nine-item IPS. Both scales demonstrate good psychometric properties and appear to be superior measures of core procrastination attributes than alternative procrastination scales.

Scaling and Numerical Model Evaluation of Snow-Cover Effects on the Generation and Modification of Daytime Mesoscale Circulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Segal, M.; Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.; Ye, Z.

1991-04-01

Consideration of the sensible heat flux characteristics over a snow surface suggests a significant diminution in the magnitude of the flux, compared to that over a snow-free surface under the same environmental conditions. Consequently, the existence of snow-covered mesoscale areas adjacent to snow-free areas produces horizontal thermal gradients in the lower atmosphere during the daytime, possibly resulting in a `snow breeze.' In addition, suppression of the daytime thermally induced upslope flow over snow-covered slopes is likely to occur. The present paper provides scaling and modeling evaluations of these situations, with quantification of the generated and modified circulations. These evaluations suggest that under ideal situations involved with uniform snow cover over large areas, particularly in late winter and early spring, a noticeable `snow breeze' is likely to develop. Additionally: suppression of the daytime thermally induced upslope flow is significant and may even result in a daytime drainage flow. The effects of bare ground patchiness in the snow cover on these circulations are also explored, both for flat terrain and slope-flow situations. A patchiness fraction greater than 0.5 is found to result in a noticeably reduced snow-breeze circulation, while a patchiness fraction of only 0.1 caused the simulated daytime drainage flow over slopes to he reversed.

Geophysical excitation of LOD/UT1 estimated from the output of the global circulation models of the atmosphere - ERA-40 reanalysis and of the ocean - OMCT

Science.gov (United States)

Korbacz, A.; Brzeziński, A.; Thomas, M.

2008-04-01

We use new estimates of the global atmospheric and oceanic angular momenta (AAM, OAM) to study the influence on LOD/UT1. The AAM series was calculated from the output fields of the atmospheric general circulation model ERA-40 reanalysis. The OAM series is an outcome of global ocean model OMCT simulation driven by global fields of the atmospheric parameters from the ERA- 40 reanalysis. The excitation data cover the period between 1963 and 2001. Our calculations concern atmospheric and oceanic effects in LOD/UT1 over the periods between 20 days and decades. Results are compared to those derived from the alternative AAM/OAM data sets.

Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

2013-01-01

Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

The influence of orography on modern ocean circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Maffre, Pierre; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Donnadieu, Yannick; Sepulchre, Pierre; Goddéris, Yves

2018-02-01

The effects of orography on climate are investigated with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (IPSL-CM5). Results are compared with previous investigations in order to dig out robust consequences of the lack of orography on the global scale. Emphasis is made on the thermohaline circulation whose sensitivity to orography has only been subject to a very limited number of studies using coupled models. The removal of the entire orography switches the Meridional Overturning Circulation from the Atlantic to the Pacific, following freshwater transfers from the latter to the former that reverse the salinity gradient between these oceans. This is in part due to the increased freshwater export from the Pacific to the Atlantic through North America in the absence of the Rocky Mountains and the consecutive decreased evaporation in the North Atlantic once the Atlantic MOC weakens, which cools the northern high-latitudes. In addition and unlike previous model studies, we find that tropical freshwater transfers are a major driver of this switch. More precisely, the collapse of the Asian summer monsoon, associated with westward freshwater transfer across Africa, is critical to the freshening of the Atlantic and the increased salt content in the Pacific. Specifically, precipitations are increasing over the Congo catchment area and induce a strong increase in runoff discharging into the tropical Atlantic. In addition, the removal of the Andes shifts the area of strong precipitation toward the Amazonian catchment area and results in a larger runoff discharging into the Tropical Atlantic.

Constraining the global carbon budget from global to regional scales - The measurement challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francey, R.J.; Rayner, P.J.; Allison, C.E.

2002-01-01

The Global Carbon Cycle can be modelled by a Bayesian synthesis inversion technique, where measured atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and isotopic compositions are analysed by use of an atmospheric transport model and estimates of regional sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon. The uncertainty associated to carbon flux estimates even on a regional scale can be improved considerably using the inversion technique. In this approach, besides the necessary control on the precision of atmospheric transport models and on the constraints for surface fluxes, an important component is the calibration of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and isotope measurements. The recent improved situation in respect to data comparability is discussed using results of conducted interlaboratory comparison exercises and larger scale calibration programs are proposed for the future to further improve the comparability of analytical data. (author)

Act local, think global: how the Malawi experience of scaling up antiretroviral treatment has informed global policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony D. Harries

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART in Malawi was based on a public health approach adapted to its resource-poor setting, with principles and practices borrowed from the successful tuberculosis control framework. From 2004 to 2015, the number of new patients started on ART increased from about 3000 to over 820,000. Despite being a small country, Malawi has made a significant contribution to the 15 million people globally on ART and has also contributed policy and service delivery innovations that have supported international guidelines and scale up in other countries. The first set of global guidelines for scaling up ART released by the World Health Organization (WHO in 2002 focused on providing clinical guidance. In Malawi, the ART guidelines adopted from the outset a more operational and programmatic approach with recommendations on health systems and services that were needed to deliver HIV treatment to affected populations. Seven years after the start of national scale-up, Malawi launched a new strategy offering all HIV-infected pregnant women lifelong ART regardless of the CD4-cell count, named Option B+. This strategy was subsequently incorporated into a WHO programmatic guide in 2012 and WHO ART guidelines in 2013, and has since then been adopted by the majority of countries worldwide. In conclusion, the Malawi experience of ART scale-up has become a blueprint for a public health response to HIV and has informed international efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

Act local, think global: how the Malawi experience of scaling up antiretroviral treatment has informed global policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Harries, Anthony D; Ford, Nathan; Jahn, Andreas; Schouten, Erik J; Libamba, Edwin; Chimbwandira, Frank; Maher, Dermot

2016-09-06

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi was based on a public health approach adapted to its resource-poor setting, with principles and practices borrowed from the successful tuberculosis control framework. From 2004 to 2015, the number of new patients started on ART increased from about 3000 to over 820,000. Despite being a small country, Malawi has made a significant contribution to the 15 million people globally on ART and has also contributed policy and service delivery innovations that have supported international guidelines and scale up in other countries. The first set of global guidelines for scaling up ART released by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2002 focused on providing clinical guidance. In Malawi, the ART guidelines adopted from the outset a more operational and programmatic approach with recommendations on health systems and services that were needed to deliver HIV treatment to affected populations. Seven years after the start of national scale-up, Malawi launched a new strategy offering all HIV-infected pregnant women lifelong ART regardless of the CD4-cell count, named Option B+. This strategy was subsequently incorporated into a WHO programmatic guide in 2012 and WHO ART guidelines in 2013, and has since then been adopted by the majority of countries worldwide. In conclusion, the Malawi experience of ART scale-up has become a blueprint for a public health response to HIV and has informed international efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

2014-05-01

We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

"Annotated Lectures": Student-Instructor Interaction in Large-Scale Global Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roger Diehl

2009-10-01

Full Text Available We describe an "Annotated Lectures" system, which will be used in a global virtual teaching and student collaboration event on embodied intelligence presented by the University of Zurich. The lectures will be broadcasted via video-conference to lecture halls of different universities around the globe. Among other collaboration features, an "Annotated Lectures" system will be implemented in a 3D collaborative virtual environment and used by the participating students to make annotations to the video-recorded lectures, which will be sent to and answered by their supervisors, and forwarded to the lecturers in an aggregated way. The "Annotated Lectures" system aims to overcome the issues of limited studentinstructor interaction in large-scale education, and to foster an intercultural and multidisciplinary discourse among students who review the lectures in a group. After presenting the concept of the "Annotated Lectures" system, we discuss a prototype version including a description of the technical components and its expected benefit for large-scale global education.

Optimizing rice yields while minimizing yield-scaled global warming potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Pittelkow, Cameron M; Adviento-Borbe, Maria A; van Kessel, Chris; Hill, James E; Linquist, Bruce A

2014-05-01

To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e., on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH4 and N2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased in response to increasing N surplus when moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N2 O and yield-scaled N2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer addition. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate dynamics of South America during summer: Connections between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Lenters, Johh Derick

1997-05-01

Relationships between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation over South America during austral summer are examined using a GCM, linear model, and observational analyses. Emphasis is placed on understanding the origin of upper-tropospheric circulation features such as the Bolivian high and its effects on South American precipitation variability, particularly on the Central Andean Altiplano. Results from the linear model indicate that the Bolivian high and 'Nordeste low' are generated in response to precipitation over the Amazon basin, Central Andes, and South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), with African precipitation also playing a crucial role in the formation of the low. The direct mechanical and sensible heating effects of the Andes are minimal, acting only to induce a weak lee trough in midlatitudes and a shallow monsoonal circulation over the Central Andes. In the GCM the effects of the Andes include a strengthening of the Bolivian high and northward shift of the Nordeste low, primarily through changes in the precipitation field. The position of the Bolivian high is primarily determined by Amazonian precipitation and is little affected by the removal of the Andes. Strong subsidence to the west of the high is found to be important for the maintenance of the high's warm core, while large-scale convective overshooting to the east is responsible for a layer of cold air above the high. Observations from eight summer seasons reveal a close relationship between precipitation variability in the Central Andes and the position and intensity of the Bolivian high. The physical mechanisms of this connection are explored using composite, EOF, and correlation techniques. On intraseasonal to interannual timescales, rainy episodes on the Altiplano are found to be associated with warm, moist, poleward flow along the eastern flank of the Andes, often in conjunction with extratropical disturbances and a westward displacement of the SACZ. Corresponding to this

Early concepts and charts of ocean circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, R. G.; Stramma, L.; Kortum, G.

realized that water is a poor conductor of heat and, unlike that of freshwater, the density of seawater continues to increase as it is cooled to its freezing point; the far-reaching significance of the implied vertical convection and deep circulation of the ocean on the moderation of climate was immediately clear (Rumford), though observations were available almost exclusively from the ocean's surface. Largely because of the marine chronometer, a wealth of unprecedentedly-accurate information about zonal, as well as meridional, surface currents began to accumulate in various hydrographic offices. In the early nineteenth century data from the Atlantic were collected and reduced in a systematic fashion (Rennell), to produce the first detailed description of the major circulation patterns at the surface for the entire mid- and low-latitude Atlantic, along with evidence for cross-equatorial flow. This work provided a foundation for the assemblage of a global data set (Humboldt; Berghaus) that yielded a worldwide charting of the non-polar currents by the late 1830s. Subtleties such as the North Equatorial Countercurrent in the Pacific were revealed for the first time. During the next two decades, the western intensification of subtropical gyres was recognized (Wilkes) while numerous refinements were made to other global descriptions (Wilkes; Kerhallet; Findlay). Heuristic and often incorrect theories of what causes the circulations in the atmosphere and oceans were popularized in the 1850s and 1860s which led to a precipitous decline in the quality of charts intended for the public (Maury; Gareis and Becker). Such errors in popular theories provided motivation for the adoption of analytical methods, which in turn led directly to the discovery of the full effect of Earth's rotation on relatively large-scale motion and the realization of how that effect produces flow perpendicular to horizontal pressure gradients (Ferrel). The precedents for modern dedicated research cruises came

The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

2017-05-01

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty

Forced synchronization of large-scale circulation to increase predictability of surface states

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

2016-04-01

Numerical models are key tools in the projection of the future climate change. The lack of perfect initial condition and perfect knowledge of the laws of physics, as well as inherent chaotic behavior limit predictions. Conceptually, the atmospheric variables can be decomposed into a predictable component (signal) and an unpredictable component (noise). In ensemble prediction the anomaly of ensemble mean is regarded as the signal and the ensemble spread the noise. Naturally the prediction skill will be higher if the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is larger in the initial conditions. We run two ensemble experiments in order to explore a way to reduce the SNR of surface winds and temperature. One ensemble experiment is AGCM with prescribing sea surface temperature (SST); the other is AGCM with both prescribing SST and nudging the high-level temperature and winds to ERA-Interim. Each ensemble has 30 members. Larger SNR is expected and found over the tropical ocean in the first experiment because the tropical circulation is associated with the convection and the associated surface wind convergence as these are to a large extent driven by the SST. However, small SNR is found over high latitude ocean and land surface due to the chaotic and non-synchronized atmosphere states. In the second experiment the higher level temperature and winds are forced to be synchronized (nudged to reanalysis) and hence a larger SNR of surface winds and temperature is expected. Furthermore, different nudging coefficients are also tested in order to understand the limitation of both synchronization of large-scale circulation and the surface states. These experiments will be useful for the developing strategies to synchronize the 3-D states of atmospheric models that can be later used to build a super model.

Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

KAUST Repository

Scott, Robert B.

2010-01-01

We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between models and observations that was greater than estimated statistical uncertainty. Averaging over all current meter records in various depth ranges, all four models had mean TKE within a factor of two of observations above 3500. m, and within a factor of three below 3500. m. With the exception of observations between 20 and 100. m, the models tended to straddle the observations. However, individual models had clear biases. The free running (no data assimilation) model biases were largest below 2000. m. Idealized simulations revealed that the parameterized bottom boundary layer tidal currents were not likely the source of the problem, but that reducing quadratic bottom drag coefficient may improve the fit with deep observations. Data assimilation clearly improved the model-observation comparison, especially below 2000. m, despite assimilated data existing mostly above this depth and only south of 47°N. Different diagnostics revealed different aspects of the comparison, though in general the models appeared to be in an eddying-regime with TKE that compared reasonably well with observations. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M

2004-03-01

During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale.

Primary sources of selected POPs: regional and global scale emission inventories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Breivik, Knut; Alcock, Ruth; Li Yifan; Bailey, Robert E.; Fiedler, Heidelore; Pacyna, Jozef M.

2004-01-01

During the last decade, a number of studies have been devoted to the sources and emissions of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) at regional and global scales. While significant improvements in knowledge have been achieved for some pesticides, the quantitative understanding of the emission processes and emission patterns for 'non-pesticide' POPs are still considered limited. The key issues remaining for the non-pesticide POPs are in part determined by their general source classification. For industrial chemicals, such as the polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the relative importance of atmospheric emissions from various source categories. For PCBs, temperature is discussed as a potential key factor influencing atmospheric emission levels and patterns. When it comes to the unintentional by-products of combustion and industrial processes (PCDD/Fs), there is still a large uncertainty with respect to the relative contribution of emissions from unregulated sources such as backyard barrel burning that requires further consideration and characterisation. For hexachlorobenzene (HCB), the relative importance of primary and secondary atmospheric emissions in controlling current atmospheric concentrations remains one of the key uncertainties. While these and other issues may remain unresolved, knowledge concerning the emissions of POPs is a prerequisite for any attempt to understand and predict the distribution and fate of these chemicals on a regional and global scale as well as to efficiently minimise future environmental burdens. - Knowledge of primary emissions is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting POPs on a regional/global scale

Teach for All: Storytelling "Shared Solutions" and Scaling Global Reform

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmann, Chloe

2015-01-01

"Teach For All" is a global network of state-based organizations that translate "Teach For America's" market model of school reform into moral projects of nation-building abroad. Referring to this challenge as one of "scaling" the organization, its leaders elaborate a theory of change that hinges on replicability: in…

NASA/MSFC FY91 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie, Fred W. (Editor)

1991-01-01

The reports presented at the annual Marshall Research Review of Earth Science and Applications are compiled. The following subject areas are covered: understanding of atmospheric processes in a variety of spatial and temporal scales; measurements of geophysical parameters; measurements on a global scale from space; the Mission to Planet Earth Program (comprised of and Earth Observation System and the scientific strategy to analyze these data); and satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics.

A general circulation model (GCM) parameterization of Pinatubo aerosols

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lacis, A.A.; Carlson, B.E.; Mishchenko, M.I. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

1996-04-01

The June 1991 volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo is the largest and best documented global climate forcing experiment in recorded history. The time development and geographical dispersion of the aerosol has been closely monitored and sampled. Based on preliminary estimates of the Pinatubo aerosol loading, general circulation model predictions of the impact on global climate have been made.

Scaled Facility Design Approach for Pool-Type Lead-Bismuth Eutectic Cooled Small Modular Reactor Utilizing Natural Circulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Sangrok; Shin, Yong-Hoon; Lee, Jueun; Hwang, Il Soon [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

In low carbon era, nuclear energy is the most prominent energy source of electricity. For steady ecofriendly nuclear energy supply, Generation IV reactors which are future nuclear reactor require safety, sustainability, economics and non-proliferation as four criteria. Lead cooled fast reactor (LFR) is one of these reactor type and Generation IV international forum (GIF) adapted three reference LFR systems which are a small and movable systems with long life without refueling, intermediate size and huge electricity generation system for power grid. NUTRECK (Nuclear Transmutation Energy Center of Korea) has been designed reactor called URANUS (Ubiquitous, Rugged, Accident-forgiving, Non-proliferating, and Ultra-lasting Sustainer) which is small modular reactor and using lead-bismuth eutectic coolant. To prove natural circulation capability of URANUS and analyze design based accidents, scaling mock-up experiment facility will be constructed. In this paper, simple specifications of URANUS will be presented. Then based on this feature, scaling law and scaled facility design results are presented. To validate safety feature and thermodynamics characteristic of URANUS, scaled mockup facility of URANUS is designed based on the scaling law. This mockup adapts two area scale factors, core and lower parts of mock-up are scaled for 3D flow experiment. Upper parts are scaled different size to reduce electricity power and LBE tonnage. This hybrid scaling method could distort some thermal-hydraulic parameters, however, key parameters for experiment will be matched for up-scaling. Detailed design of mock-up will be determined through iteration for design optimization.

The mechanism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Friedrich

2010-08-01

Full Text Available The mechanism triggering centennial-to-millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM is investigated. It is found that for several climate boundary conditions such as low obliquity values (~22.1° or LGM-albedo, internally generated centennial-to-millennial-scale variability occurs in the North Atlantic region. Stochastic excitations of the density-driven overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas can create regional sea-ice anomalies and a subsequent reorganization of the atmospheric circulation. The resulting remote atmospheric anomalies over the Hudson Bay can release freshwater pulses into the Labrador Sea and significantly increase snow fall in this region leading to a subsequent reduction of convective activity. The millennial-scale AMOC oscillations disappear if LGM bathymetry (with closed Hudson Bay is prescribed or if freshwater pulses are suppressed artificially. Furthermore, our study documents the process of the AMOC recovery as well as the global marine and terrestrial carbon cycle response to centennial-to-millennial-scale AMOC variability.

A comprehensive set of benchmark tests for a land surface model of simultaneous fluxes of water and carbon at both the global and seasonal scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Blyth

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Evaluating the models we use in prediction is important as it allows us to identify uncertainties in prediction as well as guiding the priorities for model development. This paper describes a set of benchmark tests that is designed to quantify the performance of the land surface model that is used in the UK Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. The tests are designed to assess the ability of the model to reproduce the observed fluxes of water and carbon at the global and regional spatial scale, and on a seasonal basis. Five datasets are used to test the model: water and carbon dioxide fluxes from ten FLUXNET sites covering the major global biomes, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at four representative stations from the global network, river flow from seven catchments, the seasonal mean NDVI over the seven catchments and the potential land cover of the globe (after the estimated anthropogenic changes have been removed. The model is run in various configurations and results are compared with the data.

A few examples are chosen to demonstrate the importance of using combined use of observations of carbon and water fluxes in essential in order to understand the causes of model errors. The benchmarking approach is suitable for application to other global models.

Sub-seasonal predictability of water scarcity at global and local scale

Science.gov (United States)

Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Wood, E. F.

2016-12-01

Forecasting the water demand and availability for agriculture and energy production has been neglected in previous research, partly due to the fact that most large-scale hydrological models lack the skill to forecast human water demands at sub-seasonal time scale. We study the potential of a sub-seasonal water scarcity forecasting system for improved water management decision making and improved estimates of water demand and availability. We have generated 32 years of global sub-seasonal multi-model water availability, demand and scarcity forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is compared to a reference forecast derived from resampling historic weather observations. The newly developed system has been evaluated for both the global scale and in a real-time local application in the Sacramento valley for the Trinity, Shasta and Oroville reservoirs, where the water demand for agriculture and hydropower is high. On the global scale we find that the reference forecast shows high initial forecast skill (up to 8 months) for water scarcity in the eastern US, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Adding dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts results in a clear improvement for most regions in the world, increasing the forecasts' lead time by 2 or more months on average. The strongest improvements are found in the US, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia. For the Sacramento valley we can accurately predict anomalies in the reservoir inflow, hydropower potential and the downstream irrigation water demand 6 months in advance. This allow us to forecast potential water scarcity in the Sacramento valley and adjust the reservoir management to prevent deficits in energy or irrigation water availability. The newly developed forecast system shows that it is possible to reduce the vulnerability to upcoming water scarcity events and allows optimization of the distribution of the available water between the agricultural and energy sector half a year in advance.

Global-scale assessment and combination of SMAP with ASCAT (Active) and AMSR2 (Passive) soil moisture products

Science.gov (United States)

Global-scale surface soil moisture (SSM) products retrieved from active and passive microwave remote sensing provide an effective method for monitoring near-real-time SSM content with nearly daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we first inter-compared global-scale error patterns and comb...

Mechanisms for decadal scale variability in a simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Medhaug, I.; Eldevik, T.; Furevik, T. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Langehaug, H.R. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Bentsen, M. [Uni Bjerknes Centre, Uni Research, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)

2012-07-15

Variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been analysed using a 600-year pre-industrial control simulation with the Bergen Climate Model. The typical AMOC variability has amplitudes of 1 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} s{sup -1}) and time scales of 40-70 years. The model is reproducing the observed dense water formation regions and has very realistic ocean transports and water mass distributions. The dense water produced in the Labrador Sea (1/3) and in the Nordic Seas, including the water entrained into the dense overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR; 2/3), are the sources of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) forming the lower limb of the AMOC's northern overturning. The variability in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas convection is driven by decadal scale air-sea fluxes in the convective region that can be related to opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Labrador Sea convection is directly linked to the variability in AMOC. Linkages between convection and water mass transformation in the Nordic Seas are more indirect. The Scandinavian Pattern, the third mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, is a driver of the ocean's poleward heat transport (PHT), the overall constraint on northern water mass transformation. Increased PHT is both associated with an increased water mass exchange across the GSR, and a stronger AMOC. (orig.)

Impacts of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastic litter.

Science.gov (United States)

Welden, Natalie Ac; Lusher, Amy L

2017-05-01

Marine plastic pollution is currently a major scientific focus, with attention paid to its distribution and impacts within ecosystems. With recent estimates indicating that the mass of plastic released to the marine environment may reach 250 million metric tons by 2025, the effects of plastic on our oceans are set to increase. Distribution of microplastics, those plastics measuring less than 5 mm, are of increasing concern because they represent an increasing proportion of marine litter and are known to interact with species in a range of marine habitats. The local abundance of microplastic is dependent on a complex interaction between the scale of local plastic sources and prevailing environmental conditions; as a result, microplastic distribution is highly heterogeneous. Circulation models have been used to predict plastic distribution; however, current models do not consider future variation in circulation patterns and weather systems caused by a changing climate. In this study, we discuss the potential impacts of global climate change on the abundance and distribution of marine plastic pollution. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:483-487. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Response of Southern Ocean circulation to global warming may enhance basal ice shelf melting around Antarctica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hattermann, Tore; Levermann, Anders [Potsdam University, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)

2010-10-15

We investigate the large-scale oceanic features determining the future ice shelf-ocean interaction by analyzing global warming experiments in a coarse resolution climate model with a comprehensive ocean component. Heat and freshwater fluxes from basal ice shelf melting (ISM) are parameterized following Beckmann and Goosse [Ocean Model 5(2):157-170, 2003]. Melting sensitivities to the oceanic temperature outside of the ice shelf cavities are varied from linear to quadratic (Holland et al. in J Clim 21, 2008). In 1% per year CO{sub 2}-increase experiments the total freshwater flux from ISM triples to 0.09 Sv in the linear case and more than quadruples to 0.15 Sv in the quadratic case after 140 years at which 4 x 280 ppm = 1,120 ppm was reached. Due to the long response time of subsurface temperature anomalies, ISM thereafter increases drastically, if CO{sub 2} concentrations are kept constant at 1,120 ppm. Varying strength of the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) is crucial for ISM increase, because southward advection of heat dominates the warming along the Antarctic coast. On centennial timescales the ACC accelerates due to deep ocean warming north of the current, caused by mixing of heat along isopycnals in the Southern Ocean (SO) outcropping regions. In contrast to previous studies we find an initial weakening of the ACC during the first 150 years of warming. This purely baroclinic effect is due to a freshening in the SO which is consistent with present observations. Comparison with simulations with diagnosed ISM but without its influence on the ocean circulation reveal a number of ISM-related feedbacks, of which a negative ISM-feedback, due to the ISM-related local oceanic cooling, is the dominant one. (orig.)

Global scaling properties of the spectrum for the Fibonacci chains

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, W. M.

1987-02-01

By means of the approximate renormalization approach of Niu and Nori [Phys. Rev. Lett. 57, 2057 (1986)] the widths of subband segments in the spectrum and the occupation probabilities on subbands are obtained to the lowest order for the two-value Fibonacci chains. The global scaling properties of the spectrum are then analytically calculated.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

2014-06-01

General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

Performance test results of helium gas circulator of mock-up test facility with full-scale reaction tube for HTTR hydrogen production system. Contract research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shimizu, Akira; Kato, Michio; Hayashi, Koji [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan). Oarai Research Establishment] [and others

2003-03-01

Hydrogen production system by steam reforming of methane will be connected to the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) against development of nuclear heat utilization system. To obtain design and safety database of the HTTR hydrogen production system, mock-up test facility with full-scale reaction was constructed in FY 2001 and hydrogen of 120m{sup 3}N{sub /}h was successfully produced in overall performance test. This report describes performance test results of a helium gas circulator in this facility. The circulator performance curves regarding to pressure-rise, input power and adiabatic thermal efficiency at standard revolution number were made based on the measured flow-rate, temperature and pressure data in overall performance test. The circulator performance prediction code was made based on these performance curves. The code can calculate revolution number, electric power and temperature-rise of the circulator using flow-rate, inlet temperature, inlet pressure and pressure-rise data. The verification of the code was carried out with the test data in FY 2002. Total pressure loss of the helium gas circulation loop was also evaluated. The circulator should be operated in conditions such as pressure from 2.7MPa to 4.0MPa and flow-rate from 250g/s to 400g/s and at maximum pressure-rise of 250 kPa in test operation. It was confirmed in above verification and evaluations that the circulator had performance to satisfy above conditions within operation limitation of the circulator such as maximum input-power of 150 kW and maximum revolution number of 12,000 rpm. (author)

MODELING THE SUN’S SMALL-SCALE GLOBAL PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, K. A. [Division of Computing and Mathematics, Abertay University, Kydd Building, Dundee, Bell Street, DD1 1HG, Scotland (United Kingdom); Mackay, D. H., E-mail: k.meyer@abertay.ac.uk [School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, St Andrews, KY16 9SS, Scotland (United Kingdom)

2016-10-20

We present a new model for the Sun’s global photospheric magnetic field during a deep minimum of activity, in which no active regions emerge. The emergence and subsequent evolution of small-scale magnetic features across the full solar surface is simulated, subject to the influence of a global supergranular flow pattern. Visually, the resulting simulated magnetograms reproduce the typical structure and scale observed in quiet Sun magnetograms. Quantitatively, the simulation quickly reaches a steady state, resulting in a mean field and flux distribution that are in good agreement with those determined from observations. A potential coronal magnetic field is extrapolated from the simulated full Sun magnetograms to consider the implications of such a quiet photospheric magnetic field on the corona and inner heliosphere. The bulk of the coronal magnetic field closes very low down, in short connections between small-scale features in the simulated magnetic network. Just 0.1% of the photospheric magnetic flux is found to be open at 2.5 R {sub ⊙}, around 10–100 times less than that determined for typical Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager synoptic map observations. If such conditions were to exist on the Sun, this would lead to a significantly weaker interplanetary magnetic field than is currently observed, and hence a much higher cosmic ray flux at Earth.

Simulation and analysis of the mesoscale circulation in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Echevin

Full Text Available The large-scale and mesoscale circulation of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are simulated with an eddy-resolving primitive-equation regional model (RM of 1/16° resolution embedded in a general circulation model (GM of the Mediterranean Sea of 1/8° resolution. The RM is forced by a monthly climatology of heat fluxes, precipitation and wind stress. The GM, which uses the same atmospheric forcing, provides initial and boundary conditions for the RM. Analysis of the RM results shows that several realistic features of the large-scale and mesoscale circulation are evident in this region. The mean cyclonic circulation is in good agreement with observations. Mesoscale variability is intense along the coasts of Sardinia and Corsica, in the Gulf of Lions and in the Catalan Sea. The length scales of the Northern Current meanders along the Provence coast and in the Gulf of Lions’ shelf are in good agreement with observations. Winter Intermediate Water is formed along most of the north-coast shelves, between the Gulf of Genoa and Cape Creus. Advection of this water by the mean cyclonic circulation generates a complex eddy field in the Catalan Sea. Intense anticyclonic eddies are generated northeast of the Balearic Islands. These results are in good agreement with mesoscale activity inferred from satellite altimetric data. This work demonstrates the feasibility of a down-scaling system composed of a general-circulation, a regional and a coastal model, which is one of the goals of the Mediterranean Forecasting System Pilot Project.

Key words. Oceanography: physical (currents; eddies and mesoscale processes; general circulation

Survey of natural-circulation cooling in U.S. pressurized water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyack, B.E.

1985-01-01

Literature describing natural circulation analyses, experiments, and plant operation have been obtained from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, reactor vendors, utility-sponsored research groups, utilities, national laboratories, and foreign sources. These have been reviewed and significant results and conclusions identified. Three modes of natural-circulation cooling are covered: single phase, two-phase, and reflux condensation. Single-phase natural circulation is amply verified by plant operational data, test data from scaled experimental facilities, and analysis with assessed computer codes. Ample evidence also exists that two-phase natural circulation can successfully cool pressurized water reactors. This mode occurs during certain events such as small-break loss-of-coolant accidents. The data base for reflux condensation is primarily from tests in scaled experimental facilities. There are no plant operational data and only limited assessment of thermal-hydraulic systems codes has been performed. Further work is needed before this mode of natural circulation can be confidently used

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

2018-04-01

This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

Building capacity in biodiversity monitoring at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Schmeller, Dirk S.; Bohm, Monika; Arvanitidis, Christos; Barber-Meyer, Shannon; Brummitt, Neil; Chandler, Mark; Chatzinikolaou, Eva; Costello, Mark J.; Ding, Hui; García-Moreno, Jaime; Gill, Michael J.; Haase, Peter; Jones, Miranda; Juillard, Romain; Magnusson, William E.; Martin, Corinne S.; McGeoch, Melodie A.; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Proença, Vânia; Peng, Cui; Regan, Eugenie; Schmiedel, Ute; Simsika, John P.; Weatherdon, Lauren; Waterman, Carly; Xu, Haigen; Belnap, Jayne

2017-01-01

Human-driven global change is causing ongoing declines in biodiversity worldwide. In order to address these declines, decision-makers need accurate assessments of the status of and pressures on biodiversity. However, these are heavily constrained by incomplete and uneven spatial, temporal and taxonomic coverage. For instance, data from regions such as Europe and North America are currently used overwhelmingly for large-scale biodiversity assessments due to lesser availability of suitable data from other, more biodiversity-rich, regions. These data-poor regions are often those experiencing the strongest threats to biodiversity, however. There is therefore an urgent need to fill the existing gaps in global biodiversity monitoring. Here, we review current knowledge on best practice in capacity building for biodiversity monitoring and provide an overview of existing means to improve biodiversity data collection considering the different types of biodiversity monitoring data. Our review comprises insights from work in Africa, South America, Polar Regions and Europe; in government-funded, volunteer and citizen-based monitoring in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. The key steps to effectively building capacity in biodiversity monitoring are: identifying monitoring questions and aims; identifying the key components, functions, and processes to monitor; identifying the most suitable monitoring methods for these elements, carrying out monitoring activities; managing the resultant data; and interpreting monitoring data. Additionally, biodiversity monitoring should use multiple approaches including extensive and intensive monitoring through volunteers and professional scientists but also harnessing new technologies. Finally, we call on the scientific community to share biodiversity monitoring data, knowledge and tools to ensure the accessibility, interoperability, and reporting of biodiversity data at a global scale.

LGBT world championships: sexualized ghettos in global scale? Competições esportivas mundiais LGBT: guetos sexualizados em escala global?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wagner Xavier de Camargo

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Ghettos are marginal territories, in which ethnic, religious, social and sexual minorities were encapsulated and segregated throughout History. Crossed by flows and tensions on movement in the global landscape, such spaces should be reanalyzed under a global perspective. Aiming to reflect on marginal territories of gender linked to LGBT sports events, this article has tried to re-think the concept of the ghetto from the "Chicago School", and analyze it according to new lenses, applied to two global and specific LGBT world championships (Gay Games and World OutGames. It was noticed that the occurrence of them and the expectations around "possibilities of ejaculation" of bodies, genders, sexualities, and desires, connected to the sports' world itself, open up the perspective that such events will perform a kind of "sexualized ghettos", i.e., territorialized spaces from sexual desires' practices, in the logic of a global circulation of desires, bodies and capitals.Os guetos são espaços circunscritos e marginais nos quais, ao longo da história, minorias religiosas, sociais, étnicas e sexuais foram encapsuladas e segregadas. Atravessados por fluxos e tensões em movimento do global landscape, tais territórios devem ser revisitados sob a ótica da globalização. Com o propósito de analisar territorialidades marginais de gênero atreladas a eventos esportivos LGBT, este artigo buscou ressemantizar o conceito de gueto da "Escola de Chicago" e repensá-lo segundo novas perspectivas analíticas, aplicadas a duas competições esportivas mundiais (Gay Games e World OutGames voltadas para o público LGBT. Percebeu-se que a ocorrência dessas competições e as expectativas em torno de "capitais ejaculantes" de corpos, sexos, desejos e sexualidades vinculados ao esporte abrem a perspectiva de que tais torneios performatizem "guetos sexualizados", isto é, espaços territorializados de práticas itinerantes de desejos, na lógica de uma circulação em

Interannual variability of Central European mean temperature in January / February and its relation to the large-scale circulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werner, P.C.; Storch, H. von

1993-01-01

The Central European temperature distribution field, as given by 11 stations (Fanoe, Hamburg, Potsdam, Jena, Frankfurt, Uccle, Hohenpeissenberg, Praha, Wien, Zuerich and Geneve), is analysed with respect to its year-to-year variability. January-February (JF) average temperatures are considered for the interval 1901-80. An Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis reveals that the JF temperature variability is almost entirely controlled by one EOF with uniform sign. The second EOF represents only 7% of the total variance and describes a north-south gradient. The time coefficient of the first EOF is almost stationary whereas the second pattern describes a slight downward trend at the northern stations and a slight upward trend at the southern stations. The relationship of the temperature field to the large-scale circulation, represented by the North Atlantic/European sea-level pressure (SLP) field, is investigated by means of a Canonical Correlation (CCA) Analysis. Two CCA pairs are identified which account for most of the temperature year-to-year variance and which suggest plausible mechanisms. The CCA pairs fail, however, to consistently link the long-term temperature trends to changes in the large-scale circulation. In the output of a 100-year run with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model (ECHAM1/LSG), the same CCA pairs are found but the strength of the link between Central European temperature and North Atlantic SLP is markedly weaker than in the observed data. (orig.)

Effects of land cover change on the tropical circulation in a GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Jonko, Alexandra Karolina; Hense, Andreas; Feddema, Johannes Jan

2010-09-01

Multivariate statistics are used to investigate sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric circulation to scenario-based global land cover change (LCC), with the largest changes occurring in the tropics. Three simulations performed with the fully coupled Parallel Climate Model (PCM) are compared: (1) a present day control run; (2) a simulation with present day land cover and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) projections; and (3) a simulation with SRES A2 land cover and GHG projections. Dimensionality of PCM data is reduced by projection onto a priori specified eigenvectors, consisting of Rossby and Kelvin waves produced by a linearized, reduced gravity model of the tropical circulation. A Hotelling T 2 test is performed on projection amplitudes. Effects of LCC evaluated by this method are limited to diabatic heating. A statistically significant and recurrent signal is detected for 33% of all tests performed for various combinations of parameters. Taking into account uncertainties and limitations of the present methodology, this signal can be interpreted as a Rossby wave response to prescribed LCC. The Rossby waves are shallow, large-scale motions, trapped at the equator and most pronounced in boreal summer. Differences in mass and flow fields indicate a shift of the tropical Walker circulation patterns with an anomalous subsidence over tropical South America.

Investigations on the thermal-hydraulics of a natural circulation cooled BWR fuel assembly

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kok, H.V.; Hagen, T.H.J.J. van der; Mudde, R.F. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1995-09-01

A scaled natural circulation loop facility has been built after the Dodewaard Boiling Water Reactor, which is the only operating natural circulation cooled BWR in the world. The loop comprises one fuel assembly, a riser with a downcomer and a condenser with a cooling system. Freon-12 is used as a scaling liquid. This paper reports on the first measurements done with this facility. Quantities like the circulation flow, carry-under and the void-fraction have been measured as a function of power, pressure, liquid level, riser length, condensate temperature and friction factors. The behavior of the circulation flow can be understood by considering the driving force. Special attention has been paid to the carry-under, which has been shown to have a very important impact on the dynamics of a natural circulation cooled BWR.

Monitoring the variability of sea level and surface circulation with satellite altimetry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Volkov, Denis L. "Jr"

2004-01-01

Variability in the ocean plays an important role in determining global weather and climate conditions. The advent of satellite altimetry has significantly facilitated the study of the variability of sea level and surface circulation. Satellites provide high-quality regular and nearly global

Evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in response to changing ice sheets over the last glacial cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Löfverström

2014-07-01

Full Text Available We present modelling results of the atmospheric circulation at the cold periods of marine isotope stage 5b (MIS 5b, MIS 4 and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, as well as the interglacial. The palaeosimulations are forced by ice-sheet reconstructions consistent with geological evidence and by appropriate insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations. The results suggest that the large-scale atmospheric winter circulation remained largely similar to the interglacial for a significant part of the glacial cycle. The proposed explanation is that the ice sheets were located in areas where their interaction with the mean flow is limited. However, the LGM Laurentide Ice Sheet induces a much larger planetary wave that leads to a zonalisation of the Atlantic jet. In summer, the ice-sheet topography dynamically induces warm temperatures in Alaska and central Asia that inhibits the expansion of the ice sheets into these regions. The warm temperatures may also serve as an explanation for westward propagation of the Eurasian Ice Sheet from MIS 4 to the LGM.

Time-scale and extent at which large-scale circulation modes determine the wind and solar potential in the Iberian Peninsula

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jerez, Sonia; Trigo, Ricardo M

2013-01-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian (SCAND) modes are the three main large-scale circulation patterns driving the climate variability of the Iberian Peninsula. This study assesses their influence in terms of solar (photovoltaic) and wind power generation potential (SP and WP) and evaluates their skill as predictors. For that we use a hindcast regional climate simulation to retrieve the primary meteorological variables involved, surface solar radiation and wind speed. First we identify that the maximum influence of the various modes occurs on the interannual variations of the monthly mean SP and WP series, being generally more relevant in winter. Second we find that in this time-scale and season, SP (WP) varies up to 30% (40%) with respect to the mean climatology between years with opposite phases of the modes, although the strength and the spatial distribution of the signals differ from one month to another. Last, the skill of a multi-linear regression model (MLRM), built using the NAO, EA and SCAND indices, to reconstruct the original wintertime monthly series of SP and WP was investigated. The reconstructed series (when the MLRM is calibrated for each month individually) correlate with the original ones up to 0.8 at the interannual time-scale. Besides, when the modeled series for each individual month are merged to construct an October-to-March monthly series, and after removing the annual cycle in order to account for monthly anomalies, these correlate 0.65 (0.55) with the original SP (WP) series in average. These values remain fairly stable when the calibration and reconstruction periods differ, thus supporting up to a point the predictive potential of the method at the time-scale assessed here. (letter)

Structure and variances of equatorial zonal circulation in a multimodel ensemble

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC (Canada); Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria, BC (Canada); Ting, M.F. [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States)

2012-11-15

The structure and variance of the equatorial zonal circulation, as characterized by the atmospheric mass flux in the equatorial zonal plane, is examined and inter-compared in simulations from 9 CMIP3 coupled climate models with multiple ensemble members and the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses. The climate model simulations analyzed here include twentieth century (20C3M) and twenty-first century (SRES A1B) simulations. We evaluate the 20C3M modeled zonal circulations by comparing them with those in the reanalyses. We then examine the variability of the circulation, its changes with global warming, and the associated thermodynamic maintenance. The tropical zonal circulation involves three major components situated over the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans. The three cells are supported by the corresponding diabatic heating extending deeply throughout the troposphere, with heating centers apparent in the mid-troposphere. Seasonal features appear in the zonal circulation, including variations in its intensity and longitudinal migration. Most models, and hence the multi-model mean, represent the annual and seasonal features of the circulation and the associated heating reasonably well. The multi-model mean reproduces the observed climatology better than any individual model, as indicated by the spatial pattern correlation and mean square difference of the mass flux and the diabatic heating compared to the reanalysis based values. Projected changes in the zonal circulation under A1B forcing are dominated by mass flux changes over the Pacific and Indian oceans. An eastward shift of the Pacific Walker circulation is clearly evident with global warming, with anomalous rising motion apparent over the equatorial central Pacific and anomalous sinking motions in the west and east, which favors an overall strengthening of the Walker circulation. The zonal circulation weakens and shifts westwards over the Indian Ocean under external forcing, whereas it strengthens and shifts

Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.

2005-01-01

The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

Science.gov (United States)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-10-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

The improved Clinical Global Impression Scale (iCGI: development and validation in depression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kadouri Alane

2007-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Clinical Global Impression scale (CGI is frequently used in medical care and clinical research because of its face validity and practicability. This study proposes to improve the reliability of the Clinical Global Impression (CGI scale in depressive disorders by the use of a semi-standardized interview, a new response format, and a Delphi procedure. Methods Thirty patients hospitalised for a major depressive episode were filmed at T1 (first week in hospital and at T2 (2 weeks later during a 5' specific interview. The Hamilton Depressive Rating Scale and the Symptom Check List were also rated. Eleven psychiatrists rated these videos using either the usual CGI response format or an improved response format, with or without a Delphi procedure. Results The new response format slightly improved (but not significantly the interrater agreement, the Delphi procedure did not. The best results were obtained when ratings by 4 independent raters were averaged. In this situation, intraclass correlation coefficients were about 0.9. Conclusion The Clinical Global Impression is a useful approach in psychiatry since it apprehends patients in their entirety. This study shows that it is possible to quantify such impressions with a high level of interrater agreement.

Surface ozone concentrations in Europe: Links with the regional-scale atmospheric circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, T. D.; Kelly, P. M.; Low, P. S.; Pierce, C. E.

1992-06-01

Daily surface ozone observations from 1978 (1976 for some analyses) to 1988 for Bottesford (United Kingdom), Cabauw, Kloosterburen (The Netherlands), Hohenpeissenberg, Neuglobsow, Hamburg, and Arkona (Germany) are used to analyze links between surface ozone variations and the atmospheric circulation. A daily Europe-wide synoptic classification highlights marked differences between surface ozone/meteorology relationships in summer and winter. These relationships are characterized by correlations between daily surface ozone concentrations at each station and a local subregional surface pressure gradient (a wind speed index). Although there are geographical variations, which are explicable in terms of regional climatology, there are distinct annual cycles. In summer, the surface ozone/wind speed relationship exhibits the expected negative sign; however, in winter, the relationship is, in the main, strongly positive, especially at those stations which are more influenced by the vigorous westerlies. Spring and autumn exhibit negative, positive, or transitional (between summer and winter) behavior, depending on geographical position. It is suggested that these relationships reflect the importance of vertical exchange from the free troposphere to the surface in the nonsummer months. Composite surface pressure patterns and surface pressure anomaly (from the long-term mean) patterns associated with high surface ozone concentrations on daily and seasonal time scales are consistent with the surface ozone/wind speed relationships. Moreover, they demonstrate that high surface ozone concentrations, in a climatological time frame, can be associated with mean surface pressure patterns which have a synoptic reality and are robust. Such an approach may be useful in interpreting past variations in surface ozone and may help to isolate the effect of human activity. It is also possible that assessments can be made of the effect of projected future changes in the atmospheric circulation

Experimental investigation on natural circulation and air-injection enhanced circulation in a simple loop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walter Ambrosini; Nicola Forgione; Francesco Oriolo; Filippo Pellacani; Mariano Tarantino; Claudio Struckmann

2005-01-01

Full text of publication follows: Natural circulation represents an interesting phenomenon because of both the complex aspects characterising it and for the widespread application in industry. On the other hand, injection of a gas into a rising branch of a loop represents a means to establish or to enhance a circulation flow, as it occurs in the so-called 'air-lift' loops. Both natural circulation and gas-injection enhanced circulation are presently considered for cooling Accelerator Driven System (ADS) reactors. These are subcritical reactors in which the fission reaction chain is maintained by the injection of neutrons obtained by spallation reactions in a target through a high energy proton beam generated in an external accelerator. The capability of such reactors to be used as incinerators of long lived fission products makes them particularly interesting in the light of the closure of the nuclear fuel cycle. Some of the fluids proposed as coolants for these reactors are liquid metals, with main interest for lead and lead-bismuth eutectic (LBE). Experimental activities are being performed in support to the design of the reactor prototype by different organisations. The university of Pisa, in addition to provide cooperation in these large scale activities performed with LBE has set up a specific experimental program aimed at studying the fundamental mechanisms involved in natural circulation and gas-injection enhanced circulation. The adopted experimental facility consists in a simple loop, having a rectangular lay-out (roughly, 4 m tall and 1 m wide), equipped with a 5 kW, 1 m tall heater, a 2 m long pipe-in-pipe heat exchanger, an air injection device and a separator. The fluid adopted in the tests performed up to now is water, though studies for evaluating the feasibility of the adoption of different fluids have been undertaken. Experimental data reported in previous publications concerning this research were related to a relatively high range of gas

Detecting Holocene changes in thermohaline circulation

OpenAIRE

Keigwin, L. D.; Boyle, E. A.

2000-01-01

Throughout the last glacial cycle, reorganizations of deep ocean water masses were coincident with rapid millennial-scale changes in climate. Climate changes have been less severe during the present interglacial, but evidence for concurrent deep ocean circulation change is ambiguous.

Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

2007-01-01

Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale

Natural circulation cooling in a PWR geometry under accident-induced conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimeck, D.J.; Johnsen, G.W.

1983-01-01

The characteristics and limits of natural circulation heat rejection over a wide range of conditions were experimentally investigated in a small-scale model of a pressurized water reactor. Conditions that were varied included primary and secondary coolant inventory, decay heat power, and primary noncondensable gas content. The results have defined three distinct modes of natural circulation, their limits and transition points, and the characteristic signatures accompanying natural circulation behavior. Particular emphasis is focused on the limits of natural circulation under severely degraded primary and secondary conditions

Ecological network analysis on global virtual water trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhifeng; Mao, Xufeng; Zhao, Xu; Chen, Bin

2012-02-07

Global water interdependencies are likely to increase with growing virtual water trade. To address the issues of the indirect effects of water trade through the global economic circulation, we use ecological network analysis (ENA) to shed insight into the complicated system interactions. A global model of virtual water flow among agriculture and livestock production trade in 1995-1999 is also built as the basis for network analysis. Control analysis is used to identify the quantitative control or dependency relations. The utility analysis provides more indicators for describing the mutual relationship between two regions/countries by imitating the interactions in the ecosystem and distinguishes the beneficiary and the contributor of virtual water trade system. Results show control and utility relations can well depict the mutual relation in trade system, and direct observable relations differ from integral ones with indirect interactions considered. This paper offers a new way to depict the interrelations between trade components and can serve as a meaningful start as we continue to use ENA in providing more valuable implications for freshwater study on a global scale.

Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

2016-04-01

Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

Investigating Solution Convergence in a Global Ocean Model Using a 2048-Processor Cluster of Distributed Shared Memory Machines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Hill

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Up to 1920 processors of a cluster of distributed shared memory machines at the NASA Ames Research Center are being used to simulate ocean circulation globally at horizontal resolutions of 1/4, 1/8, and 1/16-degree with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model, a finite volume code that can scale to large numbers of processors. The study aims to understand physical processes responsible for skill improvements as resolution is increased and to gain insight into what resolution is sufficient for particular purposes. This paper focuses on the computational aspects of reaching the technical objective of efficiently performing these global eddy-resolving ocean simulations. At 1/16-degree resolution the model grid contains 1.2 billion cells. At this resolution it is possible to simulate approximately one month of ocean dynamics in about 17 hours of wallclock time with a model timestep of two minutes on a cluster of four 512-way NUMA Altix systems. The Altix systems' large main memory and I/O subsystems allow computation and disk storage of rich sets of diagnostics during each integration, supporting the scientific objective to develop a better understanding of global ocean circulation model solution convergence as model resolution is increased.

A new, accurate, global hydrography data for remote sensing and modelling of river hydrodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Yamazaki, D.

2017-12-01

A high-resolution hydrography data is an important baseline data for remote sensing and modelling of river hydrodynamics, given the spatial scale of river network is much smaller than that of land hydrology or atmosphere/ocean circulations. For about 10 years, HydroSHEDS, developed based on the SRTM3 DEM, has been the only available global-scale hydrography data. However, the data availability at the time of HydroSHEDS development limited the quality of the represented river networks. Here, we developed a new global hydrography data using latest geodata such as the multi-error-removed elevation data (MERIT DEM), Landsat-based global water body data (GSWO & G3WBM), cloud-sourced open geography database (OpenStreetMap). The new hydrography data covers the entire globe (including boreal regions above 60N), and it represents more detailed structure of the world river network and contains consistent supplementary data layers such as hydrologically adjusted elevations and river channel width. In the AGU meeting, the developing methodology, assessed quality, and potential applications of the new global hydrography data will be introduced.

How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander-Turner, R.; Ortega, P.; Robson, J. I.

2018-04-01

It has been suggested that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can drive sea surface temperature (SST) on monthly time scales (Duchez et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667). However, with only 11 years of continuous observations, the validity of this result over longer, or different, time periods is uncertain. In this study, we use a 120 yearlong control simulation from a high-resolution climate model to test the robustness of the AMOC fingerprints. The model reproduces the observed AMOC seasonal cycle and its variability, and the observed 5-month lagged AMOC-SST fingerprints derived from 11 years of data. However, the AMOC-SST fingerprints are very sensitive to the particular time period considered. In particular, both the Florida current and the upper mid-ocean transport produce highly inconsistent fingerprints when using time periods shorter than 30 years. Therefore, several decades of RAPID observations will be necessary to determine the real impact of the AMOC on SSTs at monthly time scales.

Experimental study of two-phase natural circulation circuit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemos, Wanderley Freitas; Su, Jian, E-mail: wlemos@lasme.coppe.ufrj.br, E-mail: sujian@nuclear.ufrj.br [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Faccini, Jose Luiz Horacio, E-mail: faccini@ien.gov.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), RIo de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Termo-Hidraulica Experimental

2012-07-01

This paper reports an experimental study on the behavior of fluid flow in natural circulation under single-and two-phase flow conditions. The natural circulation circuit was designed based on concepts of similarity and scale in proportion to the actual operating conditions of a nuclear reactor. This test equipment has similar performance to the passive system for removal of residual heat presents in Advanced Pressurized Water Reactors (A PWR). The experiment was carried out by supplying water to primary and secondary circuits, as well as electrical power resistors installed inside the heater. Power controller has available to adjust the values for supply of electrical power resistors, in order to simulate conditions of decay of power from the nuclear reactor in steady state. Data acquisition system allows the measurement and control of the temperature at different points by means of thermocouples installed at several points along the circuit. The behavior of the phenomenon of natural circulation was monitored by a software with graphical interface, showing the evolution of temperature measurement points and the results stored in digital format spreadsheets. Besides, the natural circulation flow rate was measured by a flowmeter installed on the hot leg. A flow visualization technique was used the for identifying vertical flow regimes of two-phase natural circulation. Finally, the Reynolds Number was calculated for the establishment of a friction factor correlation dependent on the scale geometrical length, height and diameter of the pipe. (author)

Experimental study of two-phase natural circulation circuit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemos, Wanderley Freitas; Su, Jian; Faccini, Jose Luiz Horacio

2012-01-01

This paper reports an experimental study on the behavior of fluid flow in natural circulation under single-and two-phase flow conditions. The natural circulation circuit was designed based on concepts of similarity and scale in proportion to the actual operating conditions of a nuclear reactor. This test equipment has similar performance to the passive system for removal of residual heat presents in Advanced Pressurized Water Reactors (A PWR). The experiment was carried out by supplying water to primary and secondary circuits, as well as electrical power resistors installed inside the heater. Power controller has available to adjust the values for supply of electrical power resistors, in order to simulate conditions of decay of power from the nuclear reactor in steady state. Data acquisition system allows the measurement and control of the temperature at different points by means of thermocouples installed at several points along the circuit. The behavior of the phenomenon of natural circulation was monitored by a software with graphical interface, showing the evolution of temperature measurement points and the results stored in digital format spreadsheets. Besides, the natural circulation flow rate was measured by a flowmeter installed on the hot leg. A flow visualization technique was used the for identifying vertical flow regimes of two-phase natural circulation. Finally, the Reynolds Number was calculated for the establishment of a friction factor correlation dependent on the scale geometrical length, height and diameter of the pipe. (author)

Cessations and reversals of the large-scale circulation in turbulent thermal convection.

Science.gov (United States)

Xi, Heng-Dong; Xia, Ke-Qing

2007-06-01

We present an experimental study of cessations and reversals of the large-scale circulation (LSC) in turbulent thermal convection in a cylindrical cell of aspect ratio (Gamma) 1/2 . It is found that cessations and reversals of the LSC occur in Gamma = 1/2 geometry an order-of-magnitude more frequently than they do in Gamma=1 cells, and that after a cessation the LSC is most likely to restart in the opposite direction, i.e., reversals of the LSC are the most probable cessation events. This contrasts sharply to the finding in Gamma=1 geometry and implies that cessations in the two geometries are governed by different dynamics. It is found that the occurrence of reversals is a Poisson process and that a stronger rebound of the flow strength after a reversal or cessation leads to a longer period of stability of the LSC. Several properties of reversals and cessations in this system are found to be statistically similar to those of geomagnetic reversals. A direct measurement of the velocity field reveals that a cessation corresponds to a momentary decoherence of the LSC.

Explaining the mechanisms through which regional atmospheric circulation variability drives summer temperatures and glacial melt in western High Mountain Asia (HMA)

Science.gov (United States)

Forsythe, Nathan; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Li, Xiaofeng; Pritchard, David

2017-04-01

Comprehension of mechanisms by which atmospheric circulation influences sub-regional temperature and water resources variability in high-elevation mountainous catchments is of great scientific urgency due to the dependency of large downstream populations on the river flows these basins provide. In this work we quantify a regional atmospheric pattern, the Karakoram Zonal Shear (KZS), with a very pronounced annual cycle which we standardise into a dimensionless (seasonal) circulation metric the Karakoram Zonal Index (KZI). Going beyond previous regional circulation metrics such as the "middle-upper tropospheric temperature index" (MUTTI) or the Webster and Yang Monsoonal Index (WYMI) which have focused solely on the South Asian Summer Monsoon (June to September) season, the KZS/KZI provides an indicator which captures the influence and interactions of the westerly jet throughout the entire annual cycle. Use of the KZS and KZI have led us to identify a further regional atmospheric system, the Karakoram Vortex, which propagates "warm high" (anticyclonic postitive temperature anomaly) and "cold low" (cyclonic negative temperature anomaly) patterns across a very broad swath of Central and South Asia in winter but over a much more constrained area of western HMA in summer. The KV exerts this temperature influence through a combination of adiabatic effects and large-scale advection. Quantify KV influence, the KZI shows strong and statistically significantly near surface (2m) air temperatures both across western HMA both as observed through local meteorological stations and as estimated by an ensemble of global meteorological reanalyses. We show that this strong influence on temperature translates to important consequences for meltwater generation from highly glaciated Indus river tributaries which is logical given that previous studies have established the role of air temperature in modulating glacially-derived river flows in western HMA. By improving the understanding of

The overlooked knowledge: exploring knowledge circulation in the scaling up of Local Innovation: the case of beehive construction and queen replacement in Enebsie District, Ethiopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Getnet, A.

2008-01-01

The study here is set out to explore the facilitating and restraining factors for knowledge circulation in the scaling up of local innovation taking beehive and queen replacement innovation as case of the study in Enebsie district, Amhara region, Ethiopia. Appreciating farmers’ innovations and

Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM): Global Structure and Dynamics Driven by Auroral and Joule Heating

Science.gov (United States)

Bougher, S. W.; J. Il. Waite, Jr.; Majeed, T.

2005-01-01

A growing multispectral database plus recent Galileo descent measurements are being used to construct a self-consistent picture of the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system. The proper characterization of Jupiter s upper atmosphere, embedded ionosphere, and auroral features requires the examination of underlying processes, including the feedbacks of energetics, neutral-ion dynamics, composition, and magnetospheric coupling. A fully 3-D Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM) has been developed and exercised to address global temperatures, three-component neutral winds, and neutral-ion species distributions. The domain of this JTGCM extends from 20-microbar (capturing hydrocarbon cooling) to 1.0 x 10(exp -4) nbar (including aurora/Joule heating processes). The resulting JTGCM has been fully spun-up and integrated for greater than or equal to40 Jupiter rotations. Results from three JTGCM cases incorporating moderate auroral heating, ion drag, and moderate to strong Joule heating processes are presented. The neutral horizontal winds at ionospheric heights vary from 0.5 km/s to 1.2 km/s, atomic hydrogen is transported equatorward, and auroral exospheric temperatures range from approx.1200-1300 K to above 3000 K, depending on the magnitude of Joule heating. The equatorial temperature profiles from the JTGCM are compared with the measured temperature structure from the Galileo AS1 data set. The best fit to the Galileo data implies that the major energy source for maintaining the equatorial temperatures is due to dynamical heating induced by the low-latitude convergence of the high-latitude-driven thermospheric circulation. Overall, the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system is highly variable and is shown to be strongly dependent on magnetospheric coupling which regulates Joule heating.

Status of the Moderator Circulation Tests at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hyoungtae; Rhee, Bowook; Cha, Jaeeun; Choi, Hwalim [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-05-15

The scaling analysis produced the design parameters of the MCT facility, and the manufacturing process is ongoing. The application of the optical fluid measurements to the MCT was preliminary tested by small scale test models. The various flow patterns arising from a complex interaction between the buoyancy and inertia forces can be simulated in the MCT facility. In addition, the experimental results will be compared with the CFD results. The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) started experimental research on moderator circulation as one of its national R and D research programs in 2012. In the present paper, we introduce a scaling analysis performed to extend the scaling criteria suitable for reproducing thermal-hydraulic phenomena in a scaled-down CANDU-6 moderator tank, 1/40 and 1/8 small-scale model tests to identify the potential problems of the flow visualization and measurement in the main 1/4 scale MCT (Moderator Circulation Test) facility, a manufacturing status of the 1/4 scale moderator tank, and preliminary CFD analysis results to determine the flow, thermal, and heating boundary conditions with which the various flow patterns expected in the prototype CANDU-6 moderator tank can be reproduced in the experiment. KAERI has launched an experimental program for moderator circulation in a CANDU6 reactor.

Evaluating the Long-term Water Cycle Trends at a Global-scale using Satellite and Assimilation Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, H.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

Global-scale soil moisture and rainfall products retrieved from remotely sensed and assimilation datasets provide an effective way to monitor near surface soil moisture content and precipitation with sub-daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we employed the concept of the stored precipitation fraction Fp(f) in order to examine the long-term water cycle trends at a global-scale. The analysis was done for Fp(f) trends with the various geophysical aspects such as climate zone, land use classifications, amount of vegetation, and soil properties. Furthermore, we compared a global-scale Fp(f) using different microwave-based satellite soil moisture datasets. The Fp(f) is calculated by utilized surface soil moisture dataset from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, Advanced Scatterometer, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, and precipitation information from Global Precipitation Measurement Mission and Global Land Data Assimilation System. Different results from microwave-based soil moisture dataset showed discordant results particularly over arid and highly vegetated regions. The results of this study provide us new insights of the long-term water cycle trends over different land surface areas. Thereby also highlighting the advantages of the recently available GPM and SMAP datasets for the uses in various hydrometeorological applications.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

2013-01-01

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect

Global efficiency of local immunization on complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Allard, Antoine; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Dubé, Louis J

2013-01-01

Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large databases and efficient analysis algorithms, these processes can be better predicted and controlled. In this study, we use different characteristics of network organization to identify the influential spreaders in 17 empirical networks of diverse nature using 2 epidemic models. We find that a judicious choice of local measures, based either on the network's connectivity at a microscopic scale or on its community structure at a mesoscopic scale, compares favorably to global measures, such as betweenness centrality, in terms of efficiency, practicality and robustness. We also develop an analytical framework that highlights a transition in the characteristic scale of different epidemic regimes. This allows to decide which local measure should govern immunization in a given scenario.

Global efficiency of local immunization on complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Allard, Antoine; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Dubé, Louis J.

2013-07-01

Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large databases and efficient analysis algorithms, these processes can be better predicted and controlled. In this study, we use different characteristics of network organization to identify the influential spreaders in 17 empirical networks of diverse nature using 2 epidemic models. We find that a judicious choice of local measures, based either on the network's connectivity at a microscopic scale or on its community structure at a mesoscopic scale, compares favorably to global measures, such as betweenness centrality, in terms of efficiency, practicality and robustness. We also develop an analytical framework that highlights a transition in the characteristic scale of different epidemic regimes. This allows to decide which local measure should govern immunization in a given scenario.

Global Scale Remote Sensing Monitoring of Endorheic Lake Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Scuderi, L. A.

2010-12-01

Semi-arid regions of the world contain thousands of endorheic lakes in large shallow basins. Due to their generally remote locations few are continuously monitored. Documentation of recent variability is essential to assessing how endorheic lakes respond to short-term meteorological conditions and longer-term decadal-scale climatic variability and is critical in determining future disturbance of hydrological regimes with respect to predicted warming and drying in the mid-latitudes. Short- and long-term departures from climatic averages, rapid environmental shifts and increased population pressures may result in significant fluctuations in the hydrologic budgets of these lakes and adversely impact endorheic lake/basin ecosystems. Information on flooding variability is also critical in estimating changes in P/E balances and on the production of exposed and easily deflated surfaces that may impact dust loading locally and regionally. In order to provide information on how these lakes respond we need to understand how entire systems respond hydrologically to different climatic inputs. This requires monitoring and analysis of regional to continental-scale systems. To date, this level of monitoring has not been achieved in an operational system. In order to assess the possibility of creating a global-scale lake inundation database we analyzed two contrasting lake systems in western North America (Mexico and New Mexico, USA) and China (Inner Mongolia). We asked two major questions: 1) is it possible to quickly and accurately quantify current lake inundation events in near real time using remote sensing? and, 2) is it possible to differentiate variable meteorological sources and resultant lake inundation responses using this type of database? With respect to these results we outline an automated lake monitoring approach using MODIS data and real-time processing systems that may provide future global monitoring capabilities.

Nature of global large-scale sea level variability in relation to atmospheric forcing: A modeling study

Science.gov (United States)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng

1998-03-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equation model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to January 1994. The physical nature of sea level's temporal variability from periods of days to a year is examined on the basis of spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements. The study elucidates and diagnoses the inhomogeneous physics of sea level change in space and frequency domain. At midlatitudes, large-scale sea level variability is primarily due to steric changes associated with the seasonal heating and cooling cycle of the surface layer. In comparison, changes in the tropics and high latitudes are mainly wind driven. Wind-driven variability exhibits a strong latitudinal dependence in itself. Wind-driven changes are largely baroclinic in the tropics but barotropic at higher latitudes. Baroclinic changes are dominated by the annual harmonic of the first baroclinic mode and is largest off the equator; variabilities associated with equatorial waves are smaller in comparison. Wind-driven barotropic changes exhibit a notable enhancement over several abyssal plains in the Southern Ocean, which is likely due to resonant planetary wave modes in basins semienclosed by discontinuities in potential vorticity. Otherwise, barotropic sea level changes are typically dominated by high frequencies with as much as half the total variance in periods shorter than 20 days, reflecting the frequency spectra of wind stress curl. Implications of the findings with regards to analyzing observations and data assimilation are discussed.

Salinity Remote Sensing and the Study of the Global Water Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Lagerloef, G. S. E.; LeVine, David M.; Chao, Y.; Colomb, F. Raul; Font, J.

2007-01-01

influence of the oceanic water cycle requires more accurately resolving the net air-sea water flux. Measuring global SSS trends on seasonal to interannual timescales by satellite is fundamental to this problem because the SSS trends represent detectable time-integrated signals of the variable marine hydrological cycle. Satellite measurements, coupled with an array of in situ observations, will provide global synoptic SSS fields for the first time history. These data will provide a strong constraint on climate models and data assimilation efforts, which must properly represent the freshwater budget in terms of E-P, ocean advection and surface layer mixing in order to accurately simulate the true ocean state. The SSS fields will allow us to quantify the covariability between the SSS and the strong seasonal E-P cycle in the tropics and high latitudes. Field measurement campaigns to exploit satellite and in situ measurements to close the seasonal E-P cycle over an ocean region are being considered. Lastly the satellite systems will monitor and trace the large long-lived SSS anomalies from year to year that have the potential to influence El Nino and the large scale ocean circulation.

GEM-AQ/EC, an on-line global multi-scale chemical weather modelling system: model development and evaluation of global aerosol climatology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. L. Gong

2012-09-01

Full Text Available A global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC was developed by implementing tropospheric chemistry and aerosol processes on-line into the Global Environmental Multiscale weather prediction model – GEM. Due to the multi-scale features of the GEM, the integrated model, GEM-AQ/EC, is able to investigate chemical weather at scales from global to urban domains. The current chemical mechanism is comprised of 50 gas-phase species, 116 chemical and 19 photolysis reactions, and is complemented by a sectional aerosol module CAM (The Canadian Aerosol Module with 5 aerosols types: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea-salt and soil dust. Monthly emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon from boreal and temperate vegetation fires were assembled using the most reliable areas burned datasets by countries, from statistical databases and derived from remote sensing products of 1995–2004. The model was run for ten years from from 1995–2004 with re-analyzed meteorology on a global uniform 1° × 1° horizontal resolution domain and 28 hybrid levels extending up to 10 hPa. The simulating results were compared with various observations including surface network around the globe and satellite data. Regional features of global aerosols are reasonably captured including emission, surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For various types of aerosols, satisfactory correlations were achieved between modeled and observed with some degree of systematic bias possibly due to large uncertainties in the emissions used in this study. A global distribution of natural aerosol contributions to the total aerosols is obtained and compared with observations.

The impact of the ocean observing system on estimates of the California current circulation spanning three decades

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Andrew M.; Jacox, Michael G.; Crawford, William J.; Laughlin, Bruce; Edwards, Christopher A.; Fiechter, Jérôme

2017-08-01

Data assimilation is now used routinely in oceanography on both regional and global scales for computing ocean circulation estimates and for making ocean forecasts. Regional ocean observing systems are also expanding rapidly, and observations from a wide array of different platforms and sensor types are now available. Evaluation of the impact of the observing system on ocean circulation estimates (and forecasts) is therefore of considerable interest to the oceanographic community. In this paper, we quantify the impact of different observing platforms on estimates of the California Current System (CCS) spanning a three decade period (1980-2010). Specifically, we focus attention on several dynamically related aspects of the circulation (coastal upwelling, the transport of the California Current and the California Undercurrent, thermocline depth and eddy kinetic energy) which in many ways describe defining characteristics of the CCS. The circulation estimates were computed using a 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system, and our analyses also focus on the impact of the different elements of the control vector (i.e. the initial conditions, surface forcing, and open boundary conditions) on the circulation. While the influence of each component of the control vector varies between different metrics of the circulation, the impact of each observing system across metrics is very robust. In addition, the mean amplitude of the circulation increments (i.e. the difference between the analysis and background) remains relatively stable throughout the three decade period despite the addition of new observing platforms whose impact is redistributed according to the relative uncertainty of observations from each platform. We also consider the impact of each observing platform on CCS circulation variability associated with low-frequency climate variability. The low-frequency nature of the dominant climate modes in this region allows us to track through time the

Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

1975-01-01

An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

The global distribution and dynamics of chromophoric dissolved organic matter.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Norman B; Siegel, David A

2013-01-01

Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is a ubiquitous component of the open ocean dissolved matter pool, and is important owing to its influence on the optical properties of the water column, its role in photochemistry and photobiology, and its utility as a tracer of deep ocean biogeochemical processes and circulation. In this review, we discuss the global distribution and dynamics of CDOM in the ocean, concentrating on developments in the past 10 years and restricting our discussion to open ocean and deep ocean (below the main thermocline) environments. CDOM has been demonstrated to exert primary control on ocean color by its absorption of light energy, which matches or exceeds that of phytoplankton pigments in most cases. This has important implications for assessing the ocean biosphere via ocean color-based remote sensing and the evaluation of ocean photochemical and photobiological processes. The general distribution of CDOM in the global ocean is controlled by a balance between production (primarily microbial remineralization of organic matter) and photolysis, with vertical ventilation circulation playing an important role in transporting CDOM to and from intermediate water masses. Significant decadal-scale fluctuations in the abundance of global surface ocean CDOM have been observed using remote sensing, indicating a potentially important role for CDOM in ocean-climate connections through its impact on photochemistry and photobiology.

EUREC4A: A Field Campaign to Elucidate the Couplings Between Clouds, Convection and Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Ament, Felix; Bigorre, Sebastien; Chazette, Patrick; Crewell, Susanne; Delanoë, Julien; Emanuel, Kerry; Farrell, David; Flamant, Cyrille; Gross, Silke; Hirsch, Lutz; Karstensen, Johannes; Mayer, Bernhard; Nuijens, Louise; Ruppert, James H.; Sandu, Irina; Siebesma, Pier; Speich, Sabrina; Szczap, Frédéric; Totems, Julien; Vogel, Raphaela; Wendisch, Manfred; Wirth, Martin

2017-11-01

Trade-wind cumuli constitute the cloud type with the highest frequency of occurrence on Earth, and it has been shown that their sensitivity to changing environmental conditions will critically influence the magnitude and pace of future global warming. Research over the last decade has pointed out the importance of the interplay between clouds, convection and circulation in controling this sensitivity. Numerical models represent this interplay in diverse ways, which translates into different responses of trade-cumuli to climate perturbations. Climate models predict that the area covered by shallow cumuli at cloud base is very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, while process models suggest the opposite. To understand and resolve this contradiction, we propose to organize a field campaign aimed at quantifying the physical properties of trade-cumuli (e.g., cloud fraction and water content) as a function of the large-scale environment. Beyond a better understanding of clouds-circulation coupling processes, the campaign will provide a reference data set that may be used as a benchmark for advancing the modelling and the satellite remote sensing of clouds and circulation. It will also be an opportunity for complementary investigations such as evaluating model convective parameterizations or studying the role of ocean mesoscale eddies in air-sea interactions and convective organization.

EUREC4A: A Field Campaign to Elucidate the Couplings Between Clouds, Convection and Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Ament, Felix; Bigorre, Sebastien; Chazette, Patrick; Crewell, Susanne; Delanoë, Julien; Emanuel, Kerry; Farrell, David; Flamant, Cyrille; Gross, Silke; Hirsch, Lutz; Karstensen, Johannes; Mayer, Bernhard; Nuijens, Louise; Ruppert, James H.; Sandu, Irina; Siebesma, Pier; Speich, Sabrina; Szczap, Frédéric; Totems, Julien; Vogel, Raphaela; Wendisch, Manfred; Wirth, Martin

Trade-wind cumuli constitute the cloud type with the highest frequency of occurrence on Earth, and it has been shown that their sensitivity to changing environmental conditions will critically influence the magnitude and pace of future global warming. Research over the last decade has pointed out the importance of the interplay between clouds, convection and circulation in controling this sensitivity. Numerical models represent this interplay in diverse ways, which translates into different responses of tradecumuli to climate perturbations. Climate models predict that the area covered by shallow cumuli at cloud base is very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, while process models suggest the opposite. To understand and resolve this contradiction, we propose to organize a field campaign aimed at quantifying the physical properties of tradecumuli (e.g., cloud fraction and water content) as a function of the large-scale environment. Beyond a better understanding of clouds-circulation coupling processes, the campaign will provide a reference data set that may be used as a benchmark for advancing the modelling and the satellite remote sensing of clouds and circulation. It will also be an opportunity for complementary investigations such as evaluating model convective parameterizations or studying the role of ocean mesoscale eddies in air-sea interactions and convective organization.

The role of zonally asymmetric heating in the vertical and temporal structure of the global scale flow fields during FGGE SOP-1

Science.gov (United States)

Paegle, J.; Kalnay, E.; Baker, W. E.

1981-01-01

The global scale structure of atmospheric flow is best documented on time scales longer than a few days. Theoretical and observational studies of ultralong waves have emphasized forcing due to global scale variations of topography and surface heat flux, possibly interacting with baroclinically unstable or vertically refracting basic flows. Analyses of SOP-1 data in terms of global scale spherical harmonics is documented with emphasis upon weekly transitions.

Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pilarski Michał

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

Scale and Scope Economies in the Global Advertising and Marketing Services Business

OpenAIRE

Alvin J. Silk; Ernst R. Berndt

2003-01-01

We assess size and scope-related economies in the global advertising and marketing services business. A translog cost function is employed wherein a firm's costs vary according to its scale and two dimensions of the scope of its operations. Parameters of the model are estimated via three stage least squares using annual data for 1989-2001 for an unbalanced panel consisting of the eight largest firms in this industry. A firm's total variable costs are affected by its scale, scope (mix of servi...

The Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) in clinical practice--substance and reliability as judged by intraclass correlations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dyrborg, J; Larsen, F W; Nielsen, S

2000-01-01

Studies on the inter-rater reliability on the Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) and the Global Assessment of Psychosocial Disability (GAPD) involving different subgroups of 145 outpatients from 4 to 16 years of age showed fair to substantial intraclass correlations of 0.59 to 0.90. Raters...

Understanding the circulation of geothermal waters in the Tibetan Plateau using oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan, Hongbing; Zhang, Yanfei; Zhang, Wenjie; Kong, Na; Zhang, Qing; Huang, Jingzhong

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Unique geothermal resources in Tibetan Plateau were discussed. • Isotopes were used to trace circulation of geothermal water. • Magmatic water mixing dominates geothermal water evolution. - Abstract: With the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, many of the world’s rarest and most unique geothermal fields have been developed. This study aims to systematically analyze the characteristics of the hydrogen and oxygen isotopic data of geothermal, river, and lake waters to understand the circulation of groundwater and to uncover the mechanism of geothermal formation in the Tibetan Plateau. Field observations and isotopic data show that geothermal water has higher temperatures and hydraulic pressures, as well as more depleted D and 18 O isotopic compositions than river and lake waters. Thus, neither lakes nor those larger river waters are the recharge source of geothermal water. Snow-melt water in high mountains can vertically infiltrate and deeply circulate along some stretching tensile active tectonic belts or sutures and recharge geothermal water. After deep circulation, cold surface water evolves into high-temperature thermal water and is then discharged as springs at the surface again in a low area, under high water-head difference and cold–hot water density difference. Therefore, the large-scale, high-temperature, high-hydraulic-pressure geothermal systems in the Tibetan Plateau are developed and maintained by rapid groundwater circulation and the heat source of upwelled residual magmatic water. Inevitably, the amount of geothermal water will increase if global warming accelerates the melting of glaciers in high mountains

Exploration of time-course combinations of outcome scales for use in a global test of stroke recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldie, Fraser C; Fulton, Rachael L; Dawson, Jesse; Bluhmki, Erich; Lees, Kennedy R

2014-08-01

Clinical trials for acute ischemic stroke treatment require large numbers of participants and are expensive to conduct. Methods that enhance statistical power are therefore desirable. We explored whether this can be achieved by a measure incorporating both early and late measures of outcome (e.g. seven-day NIH Stroke Scale combined with 90-day modified Rankin scale). We analyzed sensitivity to treatment effect, using proportional odds logistic regression for ordinal scales and generalized estimating equation method for global outcomes, with all analyses adjusted for baseline severity and age. We ran simulations to assess relations between sample size and power for ordinal scales and corresponding global outcomes. We used R version 2·12·1 (R Development Core Team. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) for simulations and SAS 9·2 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) for all other analyses. Each scale considered for combination was sensitive to treatment effect in isolation. The mRS90 and NIHSS90 had adjusted odds ratio of 1·56 and 1·62, respectively. Adjusted odds ratio for global outcomes of the combination of mRS90 with NIHSS7 and NIHSS90 with NIHSS7 were 1·69 and 1·73, respectively. The smallest sample sizes required to generate statistical power ≥80% for mRS90, NIHSS7, and global outcomes of mRS90 and NIHSS7 combined and NIHSS90 and NIHSS7 combined were 500, 490, 400, and 380, respectively. When data concerning both early and late outcomes are combined into a global measure, there is increased sensitivity to treatment effect compared with solitary ordinal scales. This delivers a 20% reduction in required sample size at 80% power. Combining early with late outcomes merits further consideration. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

Numerical simulation of the circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

Science.gov (United States)

Hourdin, F.; Levan, P.; Talagrand, O.; Courtin, Regis; Gautier, Daniel; Mckay, Christopher P.

1992-01-01

A three dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) of Titan's atmosphere is described. Initial results obtained with an economical two dimensional (2D) axisymmetric version of the model presented a strong superrotation in the upper stratosphere. Because of this result, a more general numerical study of superrotation was started with a somewhat different version of the GCM. It appears that for a slowly rotating planet which strongly absorbs solar radiation, circulation is dominated by global equator to pole Hadley circulation and strong superrotation. The theoretical study of this superrotation is discussed. It is also shown that 2D simulations systemically lead to instabilities which make 2D models poorly adapted to numerical simulation of Titan's (or Venus) atmosphere.

The global financial crisis and health: scaling up our effort.

Science.gov (United States)

Labonté, Ronald

2009-01-01

Economic events of the past year are beginning to create hardships for tens of thousands of Canadians. There are likely to be health effects as well, to the extent that unemployment and poverty rates rise. Conditions, however, will be much worse for those living in poorer countries. High-income countries are committing trillions of dollars in countercyclical spending and banking bail-outs. Poorer countries need to do the same, but lack the resources to do so. Yet foreign aid and fairer trade are widely expected to be among the first high-income country victims of the recession fallout as nations turn inwards and protectionist. This is neither good for global health nor necessary given the scale of untaxed (or unfairly taxed) wealth that could be harnessed for a truly global rescue package. Policy choices confront us. The Canadian public health community must hold our political leadership accountable for making those choices that will improve health globally and not further imperil the well-being of much of the world's population in efforts to secure our own future economic revival.

Circulation types related to lightning activity over Catalonia and the Principality of Andorra

Science.gov (United States)

Pineda, N.; Esteban, P.; Trapero, L.; Soler, X.; Beck, C.

In the present study, we use a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to characterize the surface 6-h circulation types related to substantial lightning activity over the Catalonia area (north-eastern Iberia) and the Principality of Andorra (eastern Pyrenees) from January 2003 to December 2007. The gridded data used for classification of the circulation types is the NCEP Final Analyses of the Global Tropospheric Analyses at 1° resolution over the region 35°N-48°N by 5°W-8°E. Lightning information was collected by the SAFIR lightning detection system operated by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC), which covers the region studied. We determined nine circulation types on the basis of the S-mode orthogonal rotated Principal Component Analysis. The “extreme scores” principle was used previous to the assignation of all cases, to obtain the number of final types and their centroids. The distinct differences identified in the resulting mean Sea Level Pressure (SLP) fields enabled us to group the types into three main patterns, taking into account their scale/dynamical origin. The first group of types shows the different distribution of the centres of action at synoptic scale associated with the occurrence of lightning. The second group is connected to mesoscale dynamics, mainly induced by the relief of the Pyrenees. The third group shows types with low gradient SLP patterns in which the lightning activity is a consequence of thermal dynamics (coastal and mountain breezes). Apart from reinforcing the consistency of the groups obtained, analysis of the resulting classification improves our understanding of the geographical distribution and genesis factors of thunderstorm activity in the study area, and provides complementary information for supporting weather forecasting. Thus, the catalogue obtained will provide advances in different climatological and meteorological applications, such as nowcasting products or detection of climate change trends.

Western Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability on different time scales. A study based on stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, benthic foraminiferal assemblages and Mg/Ca paleothermometry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Romahn, Sarah

2014-08-19

In order to understand the Earth's climate evolution it is crucial to evaluate the role of low-latitude oceans in the global climate system, as they are connected to both hemispheres via atmospheric and oceanic circulation and thus hold the potential to disentangle the asynchronicity of short-term Pleistocene climate variability. However, the potential of low latitude oceans to respond to and force large-scale changes of the climate system is still debated. The aim of this thesis is to examine and to understand the causal relationship of both atmospheric and oceanic changes in the tropical western Indian Ocean on centennial-, millennial and glacial-interglacial timescales. For this purpose I investigated stable oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of both planktic and benthic foraminiferal tests, Mg/Ca ratios of planktic foraminiferal tests as well as benthic foraminiferal assemblages and sedimentary geochemical parameters on two sediment cores (GeoB12615-4, 446 m and GeoB12616-4, 1449 m) from the continental slope off Tanzania, East Africa.

Western Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability on different time scales. A study based on stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, benthic foraminiferal assemblages and Mg/Ca paleothermometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romahn, Sarah

2014-01-01

In order to understand the Earth's climate evolution it is crucial to evaluate the role of low-latitude oceans in the global climate system, as they are connected to both hemispheres via atmospheric and oceanic circulation and thus hold the potential to disentangle the asynchronicity of short-term Pleistocene climate variability. However, the potential of low latitude oceans to respond to and force large-scale changes of the climate system is still debated. The aim of this thesis is to examine and to understand the causal relationship of both atmospheric and oceanic changes in the tropical western Indian Ocean on centennial-, millennial and glacial-interglacial timescales. For this purpose I investigated stable oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of both planktic and benthic foraminiferal tests, Mg/Ca ratios of planktic foraminiferal tests as well as benthic foraminiferal assemblages and sedimentary geochemical parameters on two sediment cores (GeoB12615-4, 446 m and GeoB12616-4, 1449 m) from the continental slope off Tanzania, East Africa.

Optimization of high free fatty acid reduction in mixed crude palm oils using circulation process through static mixer reactor and pilot-scale of two-step process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somnuk, Krit; Niseng, Suhdee; Prateepchaikul, Gumpon

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Reducing FFA in MCPO was circulated through static mixer alone in the lab-scale. • Methanol and sulfuric acid were varied in the esterification reaction. • RSM was employed to optimize the acid-catalyzed esterification in lab-scale. • 60 L of pilot-scale was designed on the basis of a simple operation and maintenance. - Abstract: High free fatty acid (FFA) reduction in mixed crude palm oil (MCPO) was performed with methanol (MeOH) and sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) as acid catalyst using the circulation process through static mixer reactor. In this study, the response surface methodology (RSM) was adopted to optimize the acid value in esterified oil after esterification process (first-step) in lab-scale. The results showed that acid value was reduced from 30 mgKOH g −1 to 2 mgKOH g −1 , when 19.8 vol.% MeOH, 2.0 vol.% H 2 SO 4 , reaction temperature 60 °C, 40 L h −1 of MCPO, 50 min reaction time, and 5-m of static mixer in length, were used in the lab-scale. This recommended condition was used to develop the pilot-scale process in which the scaling up of the FFA reduction from 5 L MCPO of lab-scale to 60 L MCPO of pilot-scale, which was designed on the basis of a simple operation and maintenance. In the pilot-scale process, the lower 1 mgKOH g −1 of acid value was achieved when it was conducted at the reaction time of 50 min. In the base-catalyzed transesterification (second-step) of pilot-scale process, the 98.65 wt.% of methyl ester purity was achieved when the following condition: 20 vol.% MeOH, 8 gKOH L −1 oil, and 60 min reaction time at 60 °C, was used to produce biodiesel

Traveling-wave reactors: A truly sustainable and full-scale resource for global energy needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellis, T.; Petroski, R.; Hejzlar, P.; Zimmerman, G.; McAlees, D.; Whitmer, C.; Touran, N.; Hejzlar, J.; Weave, K.; Walter, J. C.; McWhirter, J.; Ahlfeld, C.; Burke, T.; Odedra, A.; Hyde, R.; Gilleland, J.; Ishikawa, Y.; Wood, L.; Myhrvold, N.; Gates Iii, W. H.

2010-01-01

Rising environmental and economic concerns have signaled a desire to reduce dependence on hydrocarbon fuels. These concerns have brought the world to an inflection point and decisions made today will dictate what the global energy landscape will look like for the next half century or more. An optimal energy technology for the future must meet stricter standards than in the past; in addition to being economically attractive, it now must also be environmentally benign, sustainable and scalable to global use. For stationary energy, only one existing resource comes close to fitting all of the societal requirements for an optimal energy source: nuclear energy. Its demonstrated economic performance, power density, and emissions-free benefits significantly elevate nuclear electricity generation above other energy sources. However, the current nuclear fuel cycle has some attributes that make it challenging to expand on a global scale. Traveling-wave reactor (TWR) technology, being developed by TerraPower, LLC, represents a potential solution to these limitations by offering a nuclear energy resource which is truly sustainable at full global scale for the indefinite future and is deployable in the near-term. TWRs are capable of offering a ∼40-fold gain in fuel utilization efficiency compared to conventional light-water reactors burning enriched fuel. Such high fuel efficiency, combined with an ability to use uranium recovered from river water or sea-water (which has been recently demonstrated to be technically and economically feasible) suggests that enough fuel is readily available for TWRs to generate electricity for 10 billion people at United States per capita levels for million-year time-scales. Interestingly, the Earth's rivers carry into the ocean a flux of uranium several times greater than that required to replace the implied rate-of-consumption, so that the Earth's slowly-eroding crust will provide a readily-accessible flow of uranium sufficient for all of

Coastal circulation in the North Indian Ocean: Coastal segment (14,S-W)

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Shetye, S.R.; Gouveia, A.D.

and as a result the circulation shows a distinct seasonal character. The nature of winds, precipitation, runoff, and tides in the region are summarized. Characteristics of large-scale near surface circulation and of water masses in the North Indian Basin...

Passive tracers in a general circulation model of the Southern Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. G. Stevens

Full Text Available Passive tracers are used in an off-line version of the United Kingdom Fine Resolution Antarctic Model (FRAM to highlight features of the circulation and provide information on the inter-ocean exchange of water masses. The use of passive tracers allows a picture to be built up of the deep circulation which is not readily apparent from examination of the velocity or density fields. Comparison of observations with FRAM results gives good agreement for many features of the Southern Ocean circulation. Tracer distributions are consistent with the concept of a global "conveyor belt" with a return path via the Agulhas retroflection region for the replenishment of North Atlantic Deep Water.

Key words. Oceanography: general (numerical modeling; water masses · Oceanography: physical (general circulation

Introduction to the Special Issue: Across the horizon: scale effects in global change research.

Science.gov (United States)

Gornish, Elise S; Leuzinger, Sebastian

2015-01-01

As a result of the increasing speed and magnitude in which habitats worldwide are experiencing environmental change, making accurate predictions of the effects of global change on ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them have become an important goal for ecologists. Experimental and modelling approaches aimed at understanding the linkages between factors of global change and biotic responses have become numerous and increasingly complex in order to adequately capture the multifarious dynamics associated with these relationships. However, constrained by resources, experiments are often conducted at small spatiotemporal scales (e.g. looking at a plot of a few square metres over a few years) and at low organizational levels (looking at organisms rather than ecosystems) in spite of both theoretical and experimental work that suggests ecological dynamics across scales can be dissimilar. This phenomenon has been hypothesized to occur because the mechanisms that drive dynamics across scales differ. A good example is the effect of elevated CO2 on transpiration. While at the leaf level, transpiration can be reduced, at the stand level, transpiration can increase because leaf area per unit ground area increases. The reported net effect is then highly dependent on the spatiotemporal scale. This special issue considers the biological relevancy inherent in the patterns associated with the magnitude and type of response to changing environmental conditions, across scales. This collection of papers attempts to provide a comprehensive treatment of this phenomenon in order to help develop an understanding of the extent of, and mechanisms involved with, ecological response to global change. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Kinetics programs for simulation of tropospheric photochemistry on the global scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott, S.; Kao, C.Y.J.; Turco, R.P.; Zhao, X.P.

1993-08-01

The study of tropospheric kinetics underlies global change because key greenhouse gases are photochemically active. Modeling of tropospheric chemistry on a global scale is essential because some indirect greenhouse gases are short-lived and interact in a non-linear fashion. It is also extremely challenging, however; the global change grid is extensive in both the physical and temporal domains, and critical lower atmospheric species include the organics and their oxidized derivatives, which are numerous. Several types of optimization may be incorporated into kinetics modules to enhance their ability to simulate the complete lower atmospheric gas phase chemical system. (1) The photochemical integrator can be accelerated by avoiding matrix and iterative solutions and by establishing families. Accuracy and mass conservation are sacrificed in the absence of iteration, but atom balancing is restorable post hoc. (2) Chemistry can be arranged upon the massive grid to exploit parallel processing, and solutions to its continuity equations can be automated to permit experimentation with species and reaction lists or family definitions. Costs in programming effort will be incurred in these cases. (3) Complex hydrocarbon decay sequences can be streamlined either through structural lumping methods descended from smog investigations, which require considerable calibration, or by defining surrogates for classes of compounds, with a loss in constituent detail. From among the available options, the most advantageous permutations will vary with the specific nature of any eventual global scale study, and there is likely to be demand for many approaches. Tracer transport codes serve as a foundation upon which tropospheric chemistry packages will be tested. Encroachment of the NO x sphere of influence upon tropical rain forests and the upper free troposphere are two examples of specific problems to which full three-dimensional chemical simulations might be applied

Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: A test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Jong, S.M. de; Geer, F.C. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2011-01-01

Large-scale groundwater models involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries are still rare due to a lack of hydrogeological data which are usually only available in developed countries. In this study, we propose a novel approach to construct large-scale groundwater models by using global

TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF DRY TIDALLY LOCKED ROCKY EXOPLANETS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koll, Daniel D. B.; Abbot, Dorian S., E-mail: dkoll@uchicago.edu [Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

2016-07-10

Next-generation space telescopes will observe the atmospheres of rocky planets orbiting nearby M-dwarfs. Understanding these observations will require well-developed theory in addition to numerical simulations. Here we present theoretical models for the temperature structure and atmospheric circulation of dry, tidally locked rocky exoplanets with gray radiative transfer and test them using a general circulation model (GCM). First, we develop a radiative-convective (RC) model that captures surface temperatures of slowly rotating and cool atmospheres. Second, we show that the atmospheric circulation acts as a global heat engine, which places strong constraints on large-scale wind speeds. Third, we develop an RC-subsiding model which extends our RC model to hot and thin atmospheres. We find that rocky planets develop large day–night temperature gradients at a ratio of wave-to-radiative timescales up to two orders of magnitude smaller than the value suggested by work on hot Jupiters. The small ratio is due to the heat engine inefficiency and asymmetry between updrafts and subsidence in convecting atmospheres. Fourth, we show, using GCM simulations, that rotation only has a strong effect on temperature structure if the atmosphere is hot or thin. Our models let us map out atmospheric scenarios for planets such as GJ 1132b, and show how thermal phase curves could constrain them. Measuring phase curves of short-period planets will require similar amounts of time on the James Webb Space Telescope as detecting molecules via transit spectroscopy, so future observations should pursue both techniques.

Deep water characteristics and circulation in the South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Aimei; Du, Yan; Peng, Shiqiu; Liu, Kexiu; Huang, Rui Xin

2018-04-01

This study investigates the deep circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) using oceanographic observations combined with results from a bottom layer reduced gravity model. The SCS water, 2000 m below the surface, is quite different from that in the adjacent Pacific Ocean, and it is characterized by its low dissolved oxygen (DO), high temperature and low salinity. The horizontal distribution of deep water properties indicates a basin-scale cyclonic circulation driven by the Luzon overflow. The results of the bottom layer reduced gravity model are consistent with the existence of the cyclonic circulation in the deep SCS. The circulation is stronger at the northern/western boundary. After overflowing the sill of the Luzon Strait, the deep water moves broadly southwestward, constrained by the 3500 m isobath. The broadening of the southward flow is induced by the downwelling velocity in the interior of the deep basin. The main deep circulation bifurcates into two branches after the Zhongsha Islands. The southward branch continues flowing along the 3500 m isobath, and the eastward branch forms the sub-basin scale cyclonic circulation around the seamounts in the central deep SCS. The returning flow along the east boundary is fairly weak. The numerical experiments of the bottom layer reduced gravity model reveal the important roles of topography, bottom friction, and the upwelling/downwelling pattern in controlling the spatial structure, particularly the strong, deep western boundary current.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

2017-05-23

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Water balance creates a threshold in soil pH at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Slessarev, E. W.; Lin, Y.; Bingham, N. L.; Johnson, J. E.; Dai, Y.; Schimel, J. P.; Chadwick, O. A.

2016-12-01

Soil pH regulates the capacity of soils to store and supply nutrients, and thus contributes substantially to controlling productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil pH is not an independent regulator of soil fertility—rather, it is ultimately controlled by environmental forcing. In particular, small changes in water balance cause a steep transition from alkaline to acid soils across natural climate gradients. Although the processes governing this threshold in soil pH are well understood, the threshold has not been quantified at the global scale, where the influence of climate may be confounded by the effects of topography and mineralogy. Here we evaluate the global relationship between water balance and soil pH by extracting a spatially random sample (n = 20,000) from an extensive compilation of 60,291 soil pH measurements. We show that there is an abrupt transition from alkaline to acid soil pH that occurs at the point where mean annual precipitation begins to exceed mean annual potential evapotranspiration. We evaluate deviations from this global pattern, showing that they may result from seasonality, climate history, erosion and mineralogy. These results demonstrate that climate creates a nonlinear pattern in soil solution chemistry at the global scale; they also reveal conditions under which soils maintain pH out of equilibrium with modern climate.

Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2017-01-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferraro, Angus J; Highwood, Eleanor J; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J

2014-01-01

Geoengineering by injection of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere has been proposed as a way to counteract the warming effect of greenhouse gases by reducing the intensity of solar radiation reaching the surface. Here, climate model simulations are used to examine the effect of geoengineering on the tropical overturning circulation. The strength of the circulation is related to the atmospheric static stability and has implications for tropical rainfall. The tropical circulation is projected to weaken under anthropogenic global warming. Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosol does not mitigate this weakening of the circulation. This response is due to a fast adjustment of the troposphere to radiative heating from the aerosol layer. This effect is not captured when geoengineering is modelled as a reduction in total solar irradiance, suggesting caution is required when interpreting model results from solar dimming experiments as analogues for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. (letter)

Seventh meeting of the Global Alliance to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis: reaching the vision by scaling up, scaling down, and reaching out

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

This report summarizes the 7th meeting of the Global Alliance to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GAELF), Washington DC, November 18–19, 2012. The theme, “A Future Free of Lymphatic Filariasis: Reaching the Vision by Scaling Up, Scaling Down and Reaching Out”, emphasized new strategies and partnerships necessary to reach the 2020 goal of elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public-health problem. PMID:24450283

Global forward-predicting dynamic routing for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Wei-Hao; Zhou Bin; Liu En-Xiao; Lu Wei-Dang; Zhou Ting

2015-01-01

Many real communication networks, such as oceanic monitoring network and land environment observation network, can be described as space stereo multi-layer structure, and the traffic in these networks is concurrent. Understanding how traffic dynamics depend on these real communication networks and finding an effective routing strategy that can fit the circumstance of traffic concurrency and enhance the network performance are necessary. In this light, we propose a traffic model for space stereo multi-layer complex network and introduce two kinds of global forward-predicting dynamic routing strategies, global forward-predicting hybrid minimum queue (HMQ) routing strategy and global forward-predicting hybrid minimum degree and queue (HMDQ) routing strategy, for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. By applying forward-predicting strategy, the proposed routing strategies achieve better performances in traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. Compared with the efficient routing strategy and global dynamic routing strategy, HMDQ and HMQ routing strategies can optimize the traffic distribution, alleviate the number of congested packets effectively and reach much higher network capacity. (paper)

Bioremediation at a global scale: from the test tube to planet Earth.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lorenzo, Víctor; Marlière, Philippe; Solé, Ricard

2016-09-01

Planet Earth's biosphere has evolved over billions of years as a balanced bio-geological system ultimately sustained by sunpower and the large-scale cycling of elements largely run by the global environmental microbiome. Humans have been part of this picture for much of their existence. But the industrial revolution started in the XIX century and the subsequent advances in medicine, chemistry, agriculture and communications have impacted such balances to an unprecedented degree - and the problem has nothing but exacerbated in the last 20 years. Human overpopulation, industrial growth along with unsustainable use of natural resources have driven many sites and perhaps the planetary ecosystem as a whole, beyond recovery by spontaneous natural means, even if the immediate causes could be stopped. The most conspicuous indications of such a state of affairs include the massive change in land use, the accelerated increase in the levels of greenhouse gases, the frequent natural disasters associated to climate change and the growing non-recyclable waste (e.g. plastics and recalcitrant chemicals) that we release to the Environment. While the whole planet is afflicted at a global scale by chemical pollution and anthropogenic emissions, the ongoing development of systems and synthetic biology, metagenomics, modern chemistry and some key concepts from ecological theory allow us to tackle this phenomenal challenge and propose large-scale interventions aimed at reversing and even improving the situation. This involves (i) identification of key reactions or processes that need to be re-established (or altogether created) for ecosystem reinstallation, (ii) implementation of such reactions in natural or designer hosts able to self-replicate and deliver the corresponding activities when/where needed in a fashion guided by sound ecological modelling, (iii) dispersal of niche-creating agents at a global scale and (iv) containment, monitoring and risk assessment of the whole process

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

Science.gov (United States)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

A suite of global, cross-scale topographic variables for environmental and biodiversity modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Amatulli, Giuseppe; Domisch, Sami; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Parmentier, Benoit; Ranipeta, Ajay; Malczyk, Jeremy; Jetz, Walter

2018-03-01

Topographic variation underpins a myriad of patterns and processes in hydrology, climatology, geography and ecology and is key to understanding the variation of life on the planet. A fully standardized and global multivariate product of different terrain features has the potential to support many large-scale research applications, however to date, such datasets are unavailable. Here we used the digital elevation model products of global 250 m GMTED2010 and near-global 90 m SRTM4.1dev to derive a suite of topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, eastness, northness, roughness, terrain roughness index, topographic position index, vector ruggedness measure, profile/tangential curvature, first/second order partial derivative, and 10 geomorphological landform classes. We aggregated each variable to 1, 5, 10, 50 and 100 km spatial grains using several aggregation approaches. While a cross-correlation underlines the high similarity of many variables, a more detailed view in four mountain regions reveals local differences, as well as scale variations in the aggregated variables at different spatial grains. All newly-developed variables are available for download at Data Citation 1 and for download and visualization at http://www.earthenv.org/topography.

Landslide susceptibility mapping on a global scale using the method of logistic regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Lin

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical model for mapping global landslide susceptibility based on logistic regression. After investigating explanatory factors for landslides in the existing literature, five factors were selected for model landslide susceptibility: relative relief, extreme precipitation, lithology, ground motion and soil moisture. When building the model, 70 % of landslide and nonlandslide points were randomly selected for logistic regression, and the others were used for model validation. To evaluate the accuracy of predictive models, this paper adopts several criteria including a receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve method. Logistic regression experiments found all five factors to be significant in explaining landslide occurrence on a global scale. During the modeling process, percentage correct in confusion matrix of landslide classification was approximately 80 % and the area under the curve (AUC was nearly 0.87. During the validation process, the above statistics were about 81 % and 0.88, respectively. Such a result indicates that the model has strong robustness and stable performance. This model found that at a global scale, soil moisture can be dominant in the occurrence of landslides and topographic factor may be secondary.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

2014-11-01

Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

A Thermodynamically General Theory for Convective Circulations and Vortices

Science.gov (United States)

Renno, N. O.

2007-12-01

Convective circulations and vortices are common features of atmospheres that absorb low-entropy-energy at higher temperatures than they reject high-entropy-energy to space. These circulations range from small to planetary-scale and play an important role in the vertical transport of heat, momentum, and tracer species. Thus, the development of theoretical models for convective phenomena is important to our understanding of many basic features of planetary atmospheres. A thermodynamically general theory for convective circulations and vortices is proposed. The theory includes irreversible processes and quantifies the pressure drop between the environment and any point in a convective updraft. The article's main result is that the proposed theory provides an expression for the pressure drop along streamlines or streamtubes that is a generalization of Bernoulli's equation to convective circulations. We speculate that the proposed theory not only explains the intensity, but also shed light on other basic features of convective circulations and vortices.

Kinematic vorticity number – a tool for estimating vortex sizes and circulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa Schielicke

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The influence of extratropical vortices on a global scale is mainly characterised by their size and by the magnitude of their circulation. However, the determination of these properties is still a great challenge since a vortex has no clear delimitations but is part of the flow field itself. In this work, we introduce a kinematic vortex size determination method based on the kinematic vorticity number Wk to atmospheric flows. Wk relates the local rate-of-rotation to the local rate-of-deformation at every point in the field and a vortex core is identified as a simply connected region where the rotation prevails over the deformation. Additionally, considering the sign of vorticity in the extended Wk-method allows to identify highs and lows in different vertical layers of the atmosphere and to study vertical as well as horizontal vortex interactions. We will test the Wk-method in different idealised -D (superposition of two lows/low and jet and real -D flow situations (winter storm affecting Europe and compare the results with traditional methods based on the pressure and the vorticity fields. In comparison to these traditional methods, the Wk-method is able to extract vortex core sizes even in shear-dominated regions that occur frequently in the upper troposphere. Furthermore, statistics of the size and circulation distributions of cyclones will be given. Since the Wk-method identifies vortex cores, the identified radii are subsynoptic with a broad peak around 300–500 km at the 1000 hPa level. However, the total circulating area is not only restricted to the core. In general, circulations are in the order of 107 m2/s with only a few cyclones in the order of 108 m2/s.

Simulation of spontaneous and variable global dust storms with the GFDL Mars GCM

OpenAIRE

Basu, Shabari; Wilson, John; Richardson, Mark; Ingersoll, Andrew

2006-01-01

We report on the successful simulation of global dust storms in a general circulation model. The simulated storms develop spontaneously in multiyear simulations and exhibit significant interannual variability. The simulated storms produce dramatic increases in atmospheric dustiness, global-mean air temperatures, and atmospheric circulation intensity, in accord with observations. As with observed global storms, spontaneous initiation of storms in the model occurs in southern spring and summer,...

BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

2011-01-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

KAUST Repository

Jiang, Lijian; Efendiev, Yalchin; Ginting, Victor

2010-01-01

In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

Analysis of global multiscale finite element methods for wave equations with continuum spatial scales

KAUST Repository

Jiang, Lijian

2010-08-01

In this paper, we discuss a numerical multiscale approach for solving wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients. Our interest comes from geophysics applications and we assume that there is no scale separation with respect to spatial variables. To obtain the solution of these multiscale problems on a coarse grid, we compute global fields such that the solution smoothly depends on these fields. We present a Galerkin multiscale finite element method using the global information and provide a convergence analysis when applied to solve the wave equations. We investigate the relation between the smoothness of the global fields and convergence rates of the global Galerkin multiscale finite element method for the wave equations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the use of global information renders better accuracy for wave equations with heterogeneous coefficients than the local multiscale finite element method. © 2010 IMACS.

Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

Transforming Global Health by Improving the Science of Scale-Up

OpenAIRE

Kruk, Margaret E.; Yamey, Gavin; Angell, Sonia Y.; Beith, Alix; Cotlear, Daniel; Guanais, Frederico; Jacobs, Lisa; Saxenian, Helen; Victora, Cesar; Goosby, Eric

2016-01-01

In its report Global Health 2035, the Commission on Investing in Health proposed that health investments can reduce mortality in nearly all low- and middle-income countries to very low levels, thereby averting 10 million deaths per year from 2035 onward. Many of these gains could be achieved through scale-up of existing technologies and health services. A key instrument to close this gap is policy and implementation research (PIR) that aims to produce generalizable evidence on what works to i...

Variability of cold season surface air temperature over northeastern China and its linkage with large-scale atmospheric circulations

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Yuanhuang; Zhang, Jingyong; Wang, Lin

2018-05-01

Cold temperature anomalies and extremes have profound effects on the society, the economy, and the environment of northeastern China (NEC). In this study, we define the cold season as the months from October to April, and investigate the variability of cold season surface air temperature (CSAT) over NEC and its relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns for the period 1981-2014. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first EOF mode of the CSAT over NEC is characterized by a homogeneous structure that describes 92.2% of the total variance. The regionally averaged CSAT over NEC is closely linked with the Arctic Oscillation ( r = 0.62, 99% confidence level) and also has a statistically significant relation with the Polar/Eurasian pattern in the cold season. The positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation and the Polar/Eurasian pattern tend to result in a positive geopotential height anomaly over NEC and a weakened East Asian winter monsoon, which subsequently increase the CSAT over NEC by enhancing the downward solar radiation, strengthening the subsidence warming and warm air advection. Conversely, the negative phases of these two climate indices result in opposite regional atmospheric circulation anomalies and decrease the CSAT over NEC.

Spatial scaling of bacterial community diversity at shallow hydrothermal vents: a global comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Pop Ristova, P.; Hassenrueck, C.; Molari, M.; Fink, A.; Bühring, S. I.

2016-02-01

Marine shallow hydrothermal vents are extreme environments, often characterized by discharge of fluids with e.g. high temperatures, low pH, and laden with elements toxic to higher organisms. They occur at continental margins around the world's oceans, but represent fragmented, isolated habitats of locally small areal coverage. Microorganisms contribute the main biomass at shallow hydrothermal vent ecosystems and build the basis of the food chain by autotrophic fixation of carbon both via chemosynthesis and photosynthesis, occurring simultaneously. Despite their importance and unique capacity to adapt to these extreme environments, little is known about the spatial scales on which the alpha- and beta-diversity of microbial communities vary at shallow vents, and how the geochemical habitat heterogeneity influences shallow vent biodiversity. Here for the first time we investigated the spatial scaling of microbial biodiversity patterns and their interconnectivity at geochemically diverse shallow vents on a global scale. This study presents data on the comparison of bacterial community structures on large (> 1000 km) and small (0.1 - 100 m) spatial scales as derived from ARISA and Illumina sequencing. Despite the fragmented global distribution of shallow hydrothermal vents, similarity of vent bacterial communities decreased with geographic distance, confirming the ubiquity of distance-decay relationship. Moreover, at all investigated vents, pH was the main factor locally structuring these communities, while temperature influenced both the alpha- and beta-diversity.

Towards monitoring land-cover and land-use changes at a global scale: the global land survey 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Gutman, G.; Byrnes, Raymond A.; Masek, J.; Covington, S.; Justice, C.; Franks, S.; Headley, Rachel

2008-01-01

Land cover is a critical component of the Earth system, infl uencing land-atmosphere interactions, greenhouse gas fl uxes, ecosystem health, and availability of food, fi ber, and energy for human populations. The recent Integrated Global Observations of Land (IGOL) report calls for the generation of maps documenting global land cover at resolutions between 10m and 30m at least every fi ve years (Townshend et al., in press). Moreover, despite 35 years of Landsat observations, there has not been a unifi ed global analysis of land-cover trends nor has there been a global assessment of land-cover change at Landsat-like resolution. Since the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have supported development of data sets based on global Landsat observations (Tucker et al., 2004). These land survey data sets, usually referred to as GeoCover ™, provide global, orthorectifi ed, typically cloud-free Landsat imagery centered on the years 1975, 1990, and 2000, with a preference for leaf-on conditions. Collectively, these data sets provided a consistent set of observations to assess land-cover changes at a decadal scale. These data are freely available via the Internet from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (see http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov or http://glovis.usgs.gov). This has resulted in unprecedented downloads of data, which are widely used in scientifi c studies of land-cover change (e.g., Boone et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2005; Hilbert, 2006; Huang et al. 2007; Jantz et al., 2005, Kim et al., 2007; Leimgruber, 2005; Masek et al., 2006). NASA and USGS are continuing to support land-cover change research through the development of GLS2005 - an additional global Landsat assessment circa 20051 . Going beyond the earlier initiatives, this data set will establish a baseline for monitoring changes on a 5-year interval and will pave the way toward continuous global land

Natural circulation cooling in US pressurized water reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berta, V.T.; Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.

1989-01-01

The research into the modes of, and heat removed by, natural circulation in PWR systems is reviewed for the purpose of determining the status of this method for off-nominal recovery procedures. The referenced information comes from all facets of the nuclear industry, both domestic and international. The information focuses on recent research (1986--1988); however, pre-1986 research is summarized and referenced. Particular attention is paid to the role of scaling in the experimental facilities and analytical tools. Three modes of natural-circulation cooling are covered: condensation. The conclusion of the review is that the new research reconfirms the pre-1986 conclusion that natural circulation is a viable means of decay heat removal. In addition, the new research sufficiently completes the acquisition of an appropriate experimental data base and the development of system codes to permit the design of valid plant recovery procedures incorporating all three modes of natural circulation. 48 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

Single-particle behaviour in circulating fluidized beds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erik Weinell, Claus; Dam-Johansen, Kim; Johnsson, Jan Erik

1997-01-01

This paper describes an experimental investigation of single-particle behaviour in a cold pilot-scale model of a circulating fluidized bed combustor (CFBC). In the system, sand is recirculated by means of air. Pressure measurements along the riser are used to determine the suspension density...

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2007-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a superparameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generatio11 regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

Impact of air-sea drag coefficient for latent heat flux on large scale climate in coupled and atmosphere stand-alone simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Torres, Olivier; Braconnot, Pascale; Marti, Olivier; Gential, Luc

2018-05-01

The turbulent fluxes across the ocean/atmosphere interface represent one of the principal driving forces of the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Despite decades of effort and improvements, representation of these fluxes still presents a challenge due to the small-scale acting turbulent processes compared to the resolved scales of the models. Beyond this subgrid parameterization issue, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of air-sea interactions on the climate system is still lacking. In this paper we investigates the large-scale impacts of the transfer coefficient used to compute turbulent heat fluxes with the IPSL-CM4 climate model in which the surface bulk formula is modified. Analyzing both atmosphere and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM, OAGCM) simulations allows us to study the direct effect and the mechanisms of adjustment to this modification. We focus on the representation of latent heat flux in the tropics. We show that the heat transfer coefficients are highly similar for a given parameterization between AGCM and OAGCM simulations. Although the same areas are impacted in both kind of simulations, the differences in surface heat fluxes are substantial. A regional modification of heat transfer coefficient has more impact than uniform modification in AGCM simulations while in OAGCM simulations, the opposite is observed. By studying the global energetics and the atmospheric circulation response to the modification, we highlight the role of the ocean in dampening a large part of the disturbance. Modification of the heat exchange coefficient modifies the way the coupled system works due to the link between atmospheric circulation and SST, and the different feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere. The adjustment that takes place implies a balance of net incoming solar radiation that is the same in all simulations. As there is no change in model physics other than drag coefficient, we obtain similar latent heat flux

Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Yoshihide

2015-01-01

Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

Global Scale Periodic Responses in Saturn’s Magnetosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Xianzhe; Kivelson, Margaret G.

2017-10-01

Despite having an axisymmetric internal magnetic field, Saturn’s magnetosphere exhibits periodic modulations in a variety of properties at periods close to the planetary rotation period. While the source of the periodicity remains unidentified, it is evident from Cassini observations that much of Saturn’s magnetospheric structure and dynamics is dominated by global-scale responses to the driving source of the periodicity. We have developed a global MHD model in which a rotating field-aligned current system is introduced by imposing vortical flows in the high-latitude ionosphere in order to simulate the magnetospheric periodicities. The model has been utilized to quantitatively characterize various periodic responses in the magnetosphere, such as the displacement of the magnetopause and bow shock and flapping of the tail plasma sheet, all of which show quantitative agreement with Cassini observations. One of our model predictions is periodic release of plasmoids in the tail that occurs preferentially in the midnight-to-dawn local time sector during each rotation cycle. Here we present detailed analysis of the periodic responses seen in our simulations focusing on the properties of plasmoids predicted by the model, including their spatial distribution, occurrence frequency, and mass loss rate. We will compare these modeled parameters with published Cassini observations, and discuss their implications for interpreting in-situ measurements.

Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons and Liquidity

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Krištoufek, Ladislav

2012-01-01

Roč. 15, č. 6 (2012), 1250065-1-1250065-13 ISSN 0219-5259 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 118310; SVV(CZ) 265 504 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : fractal markets hypothesis * scaling * fractality * investment horizons * efficient markets hypothesis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.647, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/kristoufek-fractal markets hypothesis and the global financial crisis scaling investment horizons and liquidity.pdf

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation in general circulation model experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kharin, V.V.

1994-01-01

Several multi-year integrations of the Hamburg version of the ECMWF/T21 general circulation model driven by the sea surface temperature (SST) observed in the period 1970-1988 were examined to study the extratropical response of the atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. In the first 19-years run SST anomalies were prescribed globally (GAGO run), and in two others SST variability was limited to extratropical regions (MOGA run) and to tropics (TOGA run), respectively. A canonical correlation analysis was applied to the monthly means to find the best correlated patterns of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric flow. Contrary to expectation, the extratropical response in the GAGO run is not equal to the linear combination of the responses in the MOGA and TOGA runs. In the GAGO integration with globally prescribed SST the best correlated atmospheric pattern is global and is characterized by dipole structures of the same polarity in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific sectors. In the MOGA and TOGA experiments the atmospheric response is more local with main centers in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. The atmospheric modes found by the CCA were compared with the normal modes of the barotropic vorticity equation linearized about the 500 mb winter climate of the control integration driven by the climatological SST. The normal modes with smallest eigenvalues are similar to the canonical patterns of 500 mb geopotential height. The corresponding eigenvectors of the adjoint operator, which represent an external forcing optimal for exciting normal modes, have a longitudinal structure with maxima in regions characterized by enhanced high frequency baroclinic activity over both oceans. It was suggested that variability of storm tracks could play an important role in variability of the barotropic normal modes. (orig.)

Roles of transport and chemistry processes in global ozone change on interannual and multidecadal time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Sekiya, T.; Sudo, K.

2014-04-01

This study investigates ozone changes and the individual impacts of transport and chemistry on those changes. We specifically examine (1) variation related to El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is a dominant mode of interannual variation of tropospheric ozone, and (2) long-term change between the 2000s and 2100s. During El Niño, the simulated ozone shows an increase (1 ppbv/K) over Indonesia, a decrease (2-10 ppbv/K) over the eastern Pacific in the tropical troposphere, and an increase (50 ppbv/K) over the eastern Pacific in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. These variations fundamentally agree with those observed by Microwave Limb Sounder/Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer instruments. The model demonstrates that tropospheric chemistry has a strong impact on the variation over the eastern Pacific in the tropical lower troposphere and that transport dominates the variation in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. Between the 2000s and 2100s, the model predicts an increase in the global burden of stratospheric ozone (0.24%/decade) and a decrease in the global burden of tropospheric ozone (0.82%/decade). The increase in the stratospheric burden is controlled by stratospheric chemistry. Tropospheric chemistry reduces the tropospheric burden by 1.07%/decade. However, transport (i.e., stratosphere-troposphere exchange and tropospheric circulation) causes an increase in the burden (0.25%/decade). Additionally, we test the sensitivity of ozone changes to increased horizontal resolution of the representation of atmospheric circulation and advection apart from any aspects of the nonlinearity of chemistry sensitivity to horizontal resolution. No marked difference is found in medium-resolution or high-resolution simulations, suggesting that the increased horizontal resolution of transport has a minor impact.

Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

2014-12-01

Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global scale, we apply a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based model-data-fusion approach into the CArbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). We assimilate MODIS LAI and burned area, plant-trait data, and use the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and maps of above ground biomass as prior knowledge for initial conditions. We optimize model parameters based on (a) globally spanning observations and (b) ecological and dynamic constraints that force single parameter values and parameter inter-dependencies to be representative of real world processes. We determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of major terrestrial C fluxes and model parameter values on a global scale (GPP = 123 +/- 8 Pg C yr-1 & NEE = -1.8 +/- 2.7 Pg C yr-1). We further show that the incorporation of disturbance fluxes, and accounting for their instantaneous or delayed effect, is of critical importance in constraining global C cycle dynamics, particularly in the tropics. In a higher resolution case study centred on the Amazon Basin we show how fires not only trigger large instantaneous emissions of burned matter, but also how they are responsible for a sustained reduction of up to 50% in plant uptake following the depletion of biomass stocks. The combination of these two fire-induced effects leads to a 1 g C m-2 d-1reduction in the strength of the net terrestrial carbon sink. Through our simulations at regional and global scale, we advocate the need to assimilate disturbance metrics in global terrestrial carbon cycle models to bridge the gap between globally spanning terrestrial carbon cycle data and the full dynamics of the ecosystem C cycle. Disturbances are especially important because their quick occurrence may have

Correlates of Circulating 25-Hydroxyvitamin D

OpenAIRE

McCullough, Marjorie L.; Weinstein, Stephanie J.; Freedman, D. Michal; Helzlsouer, Kathy; Flanders, W. Dana; Koenig, Karen; Kolonel, Laurence; Laden, Francine; Le Marchand, Loic; Purdue, Mark; Snyder, Kirk; Stevens, Victoria L.; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael; Virtamo, Jarmo; Yang, Gong

2010-01-01

Low vitamin D status is common globally and is associated with multiple disease outcomes. Understanding the correlates of vitamin D status will help guide clinical practice, research, and interpretation of studies. Correlates of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations measured in a single laboratory were examined in 4,723 cancer-free men and women from 10 cohorts participating in the Cohort Consortium Vitamin D Pooling Project of Rarer Cancers, which covers a worldwide geogra...

The Global-Scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Eastes, R. W.; McClintock, W. E.; Burns, A. G.; Anderson, D. N.; Andersson, L.; Codrescu, M.; Correira, J. T.; Daniell, R. E.; England, S. L.; Evans, J. S.; Harvey, J.; Krywonos, A.; Lumpe, J. D.; Richmond, A. D.; Rusch, D. W.; Siegmund, O.; Solomon, S. C.; Strickland, D. J.; Woods, T. N.; Aksnes, A.; Budzien, S. A.; Dymond, K. F.; Eparvier, F. G.; Martinis, C. R.; Oberheide, J.

2017-10-01

The Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere constitute a dynamic system that varies daily in response to energy inputs from above and from below. This system can exhibit a significant response within an hour to changes in those inputs, as plasma and fluid processes compete to control its temperature, composition, and structure. Within this system, short wavelength solar radiation and charged particles from the magnetosphere deposit energy, and waves propagating from the lower atmosphere dissipate. Understanding the global-scale response of the thermosphere-ionosphere ( T-I) system to these drivers is essential to advancing our physical understanding of coupling between the space environment and the Earth's atmosphere. Previous missions have successfully determined how the "climate" of the T-I system responds. The Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission will determine how the "weather" of the T-I responds, taking the next step in understanding the coupling between the space environment and the Earth's atmosphere. Operating in geostationary orbit, the GOLD imaging spectrograph will measure the Earth's emissions from 132 to 162 nm. These measurements will be used image two critical variables—thermospheric temperature and composition, near 160 km—on the dayside disk at half-hour time scales. At night they will be used to image the evolution of the low latitude ionosphere in the same regions that were observed earlier during the day. Due to the geostationary orbit being used the mission observes the same hemisphere repeatedly, allowing the unambiguous separation of spatial and temporal variability over the Americas.

Wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus circulation, and implications for polio eradication.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopalco, P L

2017-02-01

Polio cases due to wild virus are reported by only three countries in the world. Poliovirus type 2 has been globally eradicated and the last detection of poliovirus type 3 dates to November 2012. Poliovirus type 1 remains the only circulating wild strain; between January and September 2016 it caused 26 cases (nine in Afghanistan, 14 in Pakistan, three in Nigeria). The use of oral polio vaccine (OPV) has been the key to success in the eradication effort. However, paradoxically, moving towards global polio eradication, the burden caused by vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) becomes increasingly important. In this paper circulation of both wild virus and VDPVs is reviewed and implications for the polio eradication endgame are discussed. Between April and May 2016 OPV2 cessation has been implemented globally, in a coordinated switch from trivalent OPV to bivalent OPV. In order to decrease the risk for cVDPV2 re-emergence inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been introduced in the routine vaccine schedule of all countries. The likelihood of re-emergence of cVDPVs should markedly decrease with time after OPV cessation, but silent circulation of polioviruses cannot be ruled out even a long time after cessation. For this reason, immunity levels against polioviruses should be kept as high as possible in the population by the use of IPV, and both clinical and environmental surveillance should be maintained at a high level.

Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

2014-01-01

Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global

Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

2014-12-01

The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hdecreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the

Transient Atmospheric Circulation Changes in a Grand ensemble of Idealized CO2 Increase Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.; Kornblueh, L.

2017-12-01

The yearly evolution with increasing forcing of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is examined in a 68-member ensemble of 1pctCO2 scenario experiments performed with the MPI-ESM model. Each member of the experiment ensemble is integrated for 155 years, from initial conditions taken from a 2000-yr long pre-industrial control climate experiment. The 1pctCO2 scenario experiments are conducted following the protocol of including as external forcing only a CO2 concentration increase at 1%/year, till quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. MPI-ESM is the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (including coupling between the atmosphere, ocean and seaice). By averaging over the 68 members (ensemble mean), atmospheric variability is greatly reduced. Thus, it is possible to investigate the sensitivity to the climate state of the atmospheric response to CO2 doubling. Indicators of global change show the expected monotonic evolution with increasing CO2 and a weak dependence of the thermodynamical response to CO2 doubling on the climate state. The surface climate response of the atmospheric circulation, diagnosed for instance by the pressure at sea level, and the eddy-driven jet response show instead a marked dependence to the climate state, for the Northern winter season. We find that as the CO2 concentration increases above doubling, Northern winter trends in some indicators of atmospheric circulation changes decrease or even reverse, posing the question on what are the causes of this nonlinear behavior. The investigation of the role of stationary waves, the meridional overturning circulation, the decrease in Arctic sea ice and the stratospheric vortex points to the latter as a plausible cause of such nonlinear response.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

2014-01-01

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and

Growing in Motion: The Circulation of Used Things on Second-hand Markets

OpenAIRE

Staffan Appelgren; Anna Bohlin

2015-01-01

From having been associated with poverty and low status, the commerce with second-hand goods in retro shops, flea markets, vintage boutiques and trade via Internet is expanding in Sweden as in many countries in the Global North. This article argues that a significant aspect of the recent interest in second-hand and reuse concerns the meaning fulness of circulation in social life. Using classic anthropological theory on how the circulation of material culture generates sociality, it focuses on...

How important is biological ice nucleation in clouds on a global scale?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoose, C; Kristjansson, J E; Burrows, S M

2010-01-01

The high ice nucleating ability of some biological particles has led to speculations about living and dead organisms being involved in cloud ice and precipitation formation, exerting a possibly significant influence on weather and climate. In the present study, the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) as heterogeneous ice nuclei is investigated with a global model. Emission parametrizations for bacteria, fungal spores and pollen based on recent literature are introduced, as well as an immersion freezing parametrization based on classical nucleation theory and laboratory measurements. The simulated contribution of PBAPs to the global average ice nucleation rate is only 10 -5 %, with an uppermost estimate of 0.6%. At the same time, observed PBAP concentrations in air and biological ice nucleus concentrations in snow are reasonably well captured by the model. This implies that 'bioprecipitation' processes (snow and rain initiated by PBAPs) are of minor importance on the global scale.

Optimal Stomatal Behaviour Around the World: Synthesis of a Global Stomatal Conductance Database and Scaling from Leaf to Ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Y. S.; Medlyn, B. E.; Duursma, R.; Prentice, I. C.; Wang, H.

2014-12-01

Stomatal conductance (gs) is a key land surface attribute as it links transpiration, the dominant component of global land evapotranspiration and a key element of the global water cycle, and photosynthesis, the driving force of the global carbon cycle. Despite the pivotal role of gs in predictions of global water and carbon cycles, a global scale database and an associated globally applicable model of gs that allow predictions of stomatal behaviour are lacking. We present a unique database of globally distributed gs obtained in the field for a wide range of plant functional types (PFTs) and biomes. We employed a model of optimal stomatal conductance to assess differences in stomatal behaviour, and estimated the model slope coefficient, g1, which is directly related to the marginal carbon cost of water, for each dataset. We found that g1 varies considerably among PFTs, with evergreen savanna trees having the largest g1 (least conservative water use), followed by C3 grasses and crops, angiosperm trees, gymnosperm trees, and C4 grasses. Amongst angiosperm trees, species with higher wood density had a higher marginal carbon cost of water, as predicted by the theory underpinning the optimal stomatal model. There was an interactive effect between temperature and moisture availability on g1: for wet environments, g1 was largest in high temperature environments, indicated by high mean annual temperature during the period when temperature above 0oC (Tm), but it did not vary with Tm across dry environments. We examine whether these differences in leaf-scale behaviour are reflected in ecosystem-scale differences in water-use efficiency. These findings provide a robust theoretical framework for understanding and predicting the behaviour of stomatal conductance across biomes and across PFTs that can be applied to regional, continental and global-scale modelling of productivity and ecohydrological processes in a future changing climate.

Black Carbon Absorption at the Global Scale Is Affected by Particle-Scale Diversity in Composition

Science.gov (United States)

Fierce, Laura; Bond, Tami C.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Mena, Francisco; Riemer, Nicole

2016-01-01

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) exerts a strong, but uncertain, warming effect on the climate. BC that is coated with non-absorbing material absorbs more strongly than the same amount of BC in an uncoated particle, but the magnitude of this absorption enhancement (E(sub abs)) is not well constrained. Modelling studies and laboratory measurements have found stronger absorption enhancement than has been observed in the atmosphere. Here, using a particle-resolved aerosol model to simulate diverse BC populations, we show that absorption is overestimated by as much as a factor of two if diversity is neglected and population-averaged composition is assumed across all BC-containing particles. If, instead, composition diversity is resolved, we find E(sub abs) = 1 - 1.5 at low relative humidity, consistent with ambient observations. This study offers not only an explanation for the discrepancy between modelled and observed absorption enhancement, but also demonstrates how particle-scale simulations can be used to develop relationships for global-scale models.

The Stanford Microsurgery and Resident Training (SMaRT) Scale: validation of an on-line global rating scale for technical assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Satterwhite, Thomas; Son, Ji; Carey, Joseph; Echo, Anthony; Spurling, Terry; Paro, John; Gurtner, Geoffrey; Chang, James; Lee, Gordon K

2014-05-01

We previously reported results of our on-line microsurgery training program, showing that residents who had access to our website significantly improved their cognitive and technical skills. In this study, we report an objective means for expert evaluators to reliably rate trainees' technical skills under the microscope, with the use of our novel global rating scale. "Microsurgery Essentials" (http://smartmicrosurgery.com) is our on-line training curriculum. Residents were randomly divided into 2 groups: 1 group reviewed this online resource and the other did not. Pre- and post-tests consisted of videotaped microsurgical sessions in which the trainee performed "microsurgery" on 3 different models: latex glove, penrose drain, and the dorsal vessel of a chicken foot. The SMaRT (Stanford Microsurgery and Resident Training) scale, consisting of 9 categories graded on a 5-point Likert scale, was used to assess the trainees. Results were analyzed with ANOVA and Student t test, with P less than 0.05 indicating statistical significance. Seventeen residents participated in the study. The SMaRT scale adequately differentiated the performance of more experienced senior residents (PGY-4 to PGY-6, total average score=3.43) from less experienced junior residents (PGY-1 to PGY-3, total average score=2.10, P0.05). Additionally, junior residents who had access to our website showed a significant increase in their graded technical performance by 0.7 points when compared to residents who did not have access to the website who showed an improvement of only 0.2 points (P=0.01). Our SMaRT scale is valid and reliable in assessing the microsurgical skills of residents and other trainees. Current trainees are more likely to use self-directed on-line education because of its easy accessibility and interactive format. Our global rating scale can help ensure residents are achieving appropriate technical milestones.

Removal of salt from high-level waste tanks by density-driven circulation or mechanical agitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiser, D.L.

1981-01-01

Twenty-two high-level waste storage tanks at the Savannah River Plant are to be retired in the tank replacement/waste transfer program. The salt-removal portion of this program requires dissolution of about 19 million liters of salt cake. Steam circulation jets were originally proposed to dissolve the salt cake. However, the jets heated the waste tank to 80 to 90 0 C. This high temperature required a long cooldown period before transfer of the supernate by jet, and increased the risk of stress-corrosion cracking in these older tanks. A bench-scale investigation at the Savannah River Laboratory developed two alternatives to steam-jet circulation. One technique was density-driven circulation, which in bench tests dissolved salt at the same rate as a simulated steam circulation jet but at a lower temperature. The other technique was mechanical agitation, which dissolved the salt cake faster and required less fresh water than either density-driven circulation or the simulated steam circulation jet. Tests in an actual waste tank verified bench-scale results and demonstrated the superiority of mechanical agitation

The role of atmospheric nuclear explosions on the stagnation of global warming in the mid 20th century

Science.gov (United States)

Fujii, Yoshiaki

2011-04-01

This study suggests that the cause of the stagnation in global warming in the mid 20th century was the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The estimated GST drop due to fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions based on the published simulation results by other researchers (a single column model and Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) has served to explain the stagnation in global warming. Atmospheric nuclear explosions can be regarded as full-scale in situ tests for nuclear winter. The non-negligible amount of GST drop from the actual atmospheric explosions suggests that nuclear winter is not just a theory but has actually occurred, albeit on a small scale. The accuracy of the simulations of GST by IPCC would also be improved significantly by introducing the influence of fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions into their climate models; thus, global warming behavior could be more accurately predicted.

Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C

2017-11-30

Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A new approach to inventorying bodies of water, from local to global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartout, Pascal

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Having reliable estimates of the number of water bodies on different geographical scales is of great importance to better understand biogeochemical cycles and to tackle the social issues related to the economic and cultural use of water bodies. However, limnological research suffers from a lack of reliable inventories; the available scientific references are predominately based on water bodies of natural origin, large in size and preferentially located in previously glaciated areas. Artificial, small and randomly distributed water bodies, especially ponds, are usually not inventoried. Following Wetzel’s theory (1990, some authors included them in global inventories by using remote sensing or mathematical extrapolation, but fieldwork on the ground has been done on a very limited amount of territory. These studies have resulted in an explosive increase in the estimated number of water bodies, going from 8.44 million lakes (Meybeck 1995 to 3.5 billion water bodies (Downing 2010. These numbers raise several questions, especially about the methodology used for counting small-sized water bodies and the methodological treatment of spatial variables. In this study, we use inventories of water bodies for Sweden, Finland, Estonia and France to show incoherencies generated by the “global to local” approach. We demonstrate that one universal relationship does not suffice for generating the regional or global inventories of water bodies because local conditions vary greatly from one region to another and cannot be offset adequately by each other. The current paradigm for global estimates of water bodies in limnology, which is based on one representative model applied to different territories, does not produce sufficiently exact global inventories. The step-wise progression from the local to the global scale requires the development of many regional equations based on fieldwork; a specific equation that adequately reflects the actual relationship

How will the impact of El Nino and La Nina on Australia change under global warming?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Power, Scott; Morgan, Adam; Moise, Aurel; Grainger, Simon; Smith, Ian; Reeder, Michael

2007-01-01

Full text: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on Australia. How will this influence change under global warming? Will El Nino droughts become more frequent or more intense? Will La Nina events tend to produce more or less rainfall over Australia than they have in the past? Has ENSO already changed? Has ENSO's impact on Australia already changed? Will global warming be 'El Nino-like'? How well do current models simulate ENSO and how reliable are their projections for ENSO? Here we will provide answers to these questions drawing on the IPCC (2007) report and recent research conducted here in Australia. We will see that: ENSO and its impact on Australia varied substantially on decadal and longer time-scales over the past century; The frequency of El Nino events appeared to increase; The Walker Circulation, which is one of the most prominent and important atmospheric circulations in the world, is centred in the Pacific Ocean and is strongly modulated by ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which is used to track ENSO and the strength of the Walker Circulation -has trended down over the past century. The tropical Pacific - the engine room for ENSO - has warmed to unprecedented levels. The Walker Circulation weakens in some models in response to global warming. The relationship between Australian rainfall, temperature and the SOI has changed. The IPCC WG1 Report (2007) concluded that'... there is no consistent indication at this time of discernable changes in ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century'. Even if ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific does not change, ENSO's impact on Australia might. Evidence supporting this hypothesis will be provided. Finally, we will discuss what this all means for Australia

PWR hot leg natural circulation modeling with MELCOR code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jae Hong; Lee, Jong In [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1998-12-31

Previous MELCOR and SCDAP/RELAP5 nodalizations for simulating the counter-current, natural circulation behavior of vapor flow within the RCS hot legs and SG U-tubes when core damage progress can not be applied to the steady state and water-filled conditions during the initial period of accident progression because of the artificially high loss coefficients in the hot legs and SG U-tubes which were chosen from results of COMMIX calculation and the Westinghouse natural circulation experiments in a 1/7-scale facility for simulating steam natural circulation behavior in the vessel and circulation modeling which can be used both for the liquid flow condition at steady state and for the vapor flow condition at the later period of in-vessel core damage. For this, the drag forces resulting from the momentum exchange effects between the two vapor streams in the hot leg was modeled as a pressure drop by pump model. This hot leg natural circulation modeling of MELCOR was able to reproduce similar mass flow rates with those predicted by previous models. 6 refs., 2 figs. (Author)

PWR hot leg natural circulation modeling with MELCOR code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jae Hong; Lee, Jong In [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1997-12-31

Previous MELCOR and SCDAP/RELAP5 nodalizations for simulating the counter-current, natural circulation behavior of vapor flow within the RCS hot legs and SG U-tubes when core damage progress can not be applied to the steady state and water-filled conditions during the initial period of accident progression because of the artificially high loss coefficients in the hot legs and SG U-tubes which were chosen from results of COMMIX calculation and the Westinghouse natural circulation experiments in a 1/7-scale facility for simulating steam natural circulation behavior in the vessel and circulation modeling which can be used both for the liquid flow condition at steady state and for the vapor flow condition at the later period of in-vessel core damage. For this, the drag forces resulting from the momentum exchange effects between the two vapor streams in the hot leg was modeled as a pressure drop by pump model. This hot leg natural circulation modeling of MELCOR was able to reproduce similar mass flow rates with those predicted by previous models. 6 refs., 2 figs. (Author)

Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akio Kitoh

2016-03-01

Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.

Controls on the global distribution of contourite drifts: Insights from an eddy-resolving ocean model

Science.gov (United States)

Thran, Amanda C.; Dutkiewicz, Adriana; Spence, Paul; Müller, R. Dietmar

2018-05-01

Contourite drifts are anomalously high sediment accumulations that form due to reworking by bottom currents. Due to the lack of a comprehensive contourite database, the link between vigorous bottom water activity and drift occurrence has yet to be demonstrated on a global scale. Using an eddy-resolving ocean model and a new georeferenced database of 267 contourites, we show that the global distribution of modern contourite drifts strongly depends on the configuration of the world's most powerful bottom currents, many of which are associated with global meridional overturning circulation. Bathymetric obstacles frequently modify flow direction and intensity, imposing additional finer-scale control on drift occurrence. Mean bottom current speed over contourite-covered areas is only slightly higher (2.2 cm/s) than the rest of the global ocean (1.1 cm/s), falling below proposed thresholds deemed necessary to re-suspend and redistribute sediments (10-15 cm/s). However, currents fluctuate more frequently and intensely over areas with drifts, highlighting the role of intermittent, high-energy bottom current events in sediment erosion, transport, and subsequent drift accumulation. We identify eddies as a major driver of these bottom current fluctuations, and we find that simulated bottom eddy kinetic energy is over three times higher in contourite-covered areas in comparison to the rest of the ocean. Our work supports previous hypotheses which suggest that contourite deposition predominantly occurs due to repeated acute events as opposed to continuous reworking under average-intensity background flow conditions. This suggests that the contourite record should be interpreted in terms of a bottom current's susceptibility to experiencing periodic, high-speed current events. Our results also highlight the potential role of upper ocean dynamics in contourite sedimentation through its direct influence on deep eddy circulation.

Ocean bio-geophysical modeling using mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model coupled with photosynthesis process

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Nakamoto, S.; Saito, H.; Muneyama, K.; Sato, T.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Kumar, A.; Frouin, R.

-chemical system that supports steady carbon circulation in geological time scale in the world ocean using Mixed Layer-Isopycnal ocean General Circulation model with remotely sensed Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) chlorophyll pigment concentration....

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

Multi-scale spatial modeling of human exposure from local sources to global intake

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-01-01

Exposure studies, used in human health risk and impact assessments of chemicals are largely performed locally or regionally. It is usually not known how global impacts resulting from exposure to point source emissions compare to local impacts. To address this problem, we introduce Pangea......, an innovative multi-scale, spatial multimedia fate and exposure assessment model. We study local to global population exposure associated with emissions from 126 point sources matching locations of waste-to-energy plants across France. Results for three chemicals with distinct physicochemical properties...... occur within a 100 km radius from the source. This suggests that, by neglecting distant low-level exposure, local assessments might only account for fractions of global cumulative intakes. We also study ~10,000 emission locations covering France more densely to determine per chemical and exposure route...

Global climate change and international security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, M.

1991-01-01

On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

2011-04-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

In Developping a Bench-Scale Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustor to Burn High Ash Brazilian Coal-Dolomites Mixtures

Science.gov (United States)

Ramírez Behainne, Jhon Jairo; Hory, Rogério Ishikawa; Goldstein, Leonardo; Bernárdez Pécora, Araí Augusta

This work considers some of the questions in burning high ash Brazilian coal-dolomite mixtures in a bench-scale circulating fluidized bed combustor (CFBC). Experimental tests were performed with the CE4500 coal from Santa Catarina State, in southern Brazil, with a Sauter mean diameter d p =43 μm. The coal particles were mixed with dolomite particles of d p = 111 μm and this fuel mixture was fed into the circulating fluidized reactor, previously loaded with quartz sand particles of d p =353 μm. This inert material was previously heated by the combustion of liquefied petroleum gas up to the ignition temperature of the fuel mixture. The CFBC unit has a 100mm internal diameter riser, 4.0m high, as well as a 62.8mm internal diameter downcomer. The loop has a cyclone, a sampling valve to collect particles and a 62.8mm internal diameter L-valve to recirculate the particles in the loop. A screw feeder with a rotation control system was used to feed the fuel mixture to the reactor. The operational conditions were monitored by pressure taps and thermocouples installed along the loop. A data acquisition system showed the main operational conditions to control. Experimental tests performed put in evidence the problems found during bed operation, with special attention to the solids feed device, to the L-valve operation, to particle size, solids inventory, fluidized gas velocity, fuel mixture and recirculated solids feeding positions.

Early Pliocene onset of modern Nordic Seas circulation related to ocean gateway changes.

Science.gov (United States)

De Schepper, Stijn; Schreck, Michael; Beck, Kristina Marie; Matthiessen, Jens; Fahl, Kirsten; Mangerud, Gunn

2015-10-28

The globally warm climate of the early Pliocene gradually cooled from 4 million years ago, synchronous with decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In contrast, palaeoceanographic records indicate that the Nordic Seas cooled during the earliest Pliocene, before global cooling. However, a lack of knowledge regarding the precise timing of Nordic Seas cooling has limited our understanding of the governing mechanisms. Here, using marine palynology, we show that cooling in the Nordic Seas was coincident with the first trans-Arctic migration of cool-water Pacific mollusks around 4.5 million years ago, and followed by the development of a modern-like Nordic Seas surface circulation. Nordic Seas cooling precedes global cooling by 500,000 years; as such, we propose that reconfiguration of the Bering Strait and Central American Seaway triggered the development of a modern circulation in the Nordic Seas, which is essential for North Atlantic Deep Water formation and a precursor for more widespread Greenland glaciation in the late Pliocene.

Prototyping global Earth System Models at high resolution: Representation of climate, ecosystems, and acidification in Eastern Boundary Currents

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.; Stock, C. A.

2013-12-01

The world's major Eastern Boundary Currents (EBC) such as the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) are critically important areas for global fisheries. Computational limitations have divided past EBC modeling into two types: high resolution regional approaches that resolve the strong meso-scale structures involved, and coarse global approaches that represent the large scale context for EBCs, but only crudely resolve only the largest scales of their manifestation. These latter global studies have illustrated the complex mechanisms involved in the climate change and acidification response in these regions, with the CCLME response dominated not by local adjustments but large scale reorganization of ocean circulation through remote forcing of water-mass supply pathways. While qualitatively illustrating the limitations of regional high resolution studies in long term projection, these studies lack the ability to robustly quantify change because of the inability of these models to represent the baseline meso-scale structures of EBCs. In the present work, we compare current generation coarse resolution (one degree) and a prototype next generation high resolution (1/10 degree) Earth System Models (ESMs) from NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in representing the four major EBCs. We review the long-known temperature biases that the coarse models suffer in being unable to represent the timing and intensity of upwelling-favorable winds, along with lack of representation of the observed high chlorophyll and biological productivity resulting from this upwelling. In promising contrast, we show that the high resolution prototype is capable of representing not only the overall meso-scale structure in physical and biogeochemical fields, but also the appropriate offshore extent of temperature anomalies and other EBC characteristics. Results for chlorophyll were mixed; while high resolution chlorophyll in EBCs were strongly enhanced over the coarse resolution

Application of Improved Radiation Modeling to General Circulation Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michael J Iacono

2011-04-07

This research has accomplished its primary objectives of developing accurate and efficient radiation codes, validating them with measurements and higher resolution models, and providing these advancements to the global modeling community to enhance the treatment of cloud and radiative processes in weather and climate prediction models. A critical component of this research has been the development of the longwave and shortwave broadband radiative transfer code for general circulation model (GCM) applications, RRTMG, which is based on the single-column reference code, RRTM, also developed at AER. RRTMG is a rigorously tested radiation model that retains a considerable level of accuracy relative to higher resolution models and measurements despite the performance enhancements that have made it possible to apply this radiation code successfully to global dynamical models. This model includes the radiative effects of all significant atmospheric gases, and it treats the absorption and scattering from liquid and ice clouds and aerosols. RRTMG also includes a statistical technique for representing small-scale cloud variability, such as cloud fraction and the vertical overlap of clouds, which has been shown to improve cloud radiative forcing in global models. This development approach has provided a direct link from observations to the enhanced radiative transfer provided by RRTMG for application to GCMs. Recent comparison of existing climate model radiation codes with high resolution models has documented the improved radiative forcing capability provided by RRTMG, especially at the surface, relative to other GCM radiation models. Due to its high accuracy, its connection to observations, and its computational efficiency, RRTMG has been implemented operationally in many national and international dynamical models to provide validated radiative transfer for improving weather forecasts and enhancing the prediction of global climate change.

The Invertibility, Explicit Determinants, and Inverses of Circulant and Left Circulant and g-Circulant Matrices Involving Any Continuous Fibonacci and Lucas Numbers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhaolin Jiang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Circulant matrices play an important role in solving delay differential equations. In this paper, circulant type matrices including the circulant and left circulant and g-circulant matrices with any continuous Fibonacci and Lucas numbers are considered. Firstly, the invertibility of the circulant matrix is discussed and the explicit determinant and the inverse matrices by constructing the transformation matrices are presented. Furthermore, the invertibility of the left circulant and g-circulant matrices is also studied. We obtain the explicit determinants and the inverse matrices of the left circulant and g-circulant matrices by utilizing the relationship between left circulant, g-circulant matrices and circulant matrix, respectively.

A nested Atlantic-Mediterranean Sea general circulation model for operational forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Oddo

2009-10-01

Full Text Available A new numerical general circulation ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea has been implemented nested within an Atlantic general circulation model within the framework of the Marine Environment and Security for the European Area project (MERSEA, Desaubies, 2006. A 4-year twin experiment was carried out from January 2004 to December 2007 with two different models to evaluate the impact on the Mediterranean Sea circulation of open lateral boundary conditions in the Atlantic Ocean. One model considers a closed lateral boundary in a large Atlantic box and the other is nested in the same box in a global ocean circulation model. Impact was observed comparing the two simulations with independent observations: ARGO for temperature and salinity profiles and tide gauges and along-track satellite observations for the sea surface height. The improvement in the nested Atlantic-Mediterranean model with respect to the closed one is particularly evident in the salinity characteristics of the Modified Atlantic Water and in the Mediterranean sea level seasonal variability.

The importance of deep, basinwide measurements in optimized Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation observing arrays

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, G. D.; Menary, M. B.; Mecking, J. V.; Moat, B. I.; Johns, W. E.; Andrews, M. B.; Rayner, D.; Smeed, D. A.

2017-03-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key process in the global redistribution of heat. The AMOC is defined as the maximum of the overturning stream function, which typically occurs near 30°N in the North Atlantic. The RAPID mooring array has provided full-depth, basinwide, continuous estimates of this quantity since 2004. Motivated by both the need to deliver near real-time data and optimization of the array to reduce costs, we consider alternative configurations of the mooring array. Results suggest that the variability observed since 2004 could be reproduced by a single tall mooring on the western boundary and a mooring to 1500 m on the eastern boundary. We consider the potential future evolution of the AMOC in two generations of the Hadley Centre climate models and a suite of additional CMIP5 models. The modeling studies show that deep, basinwide measurements are essential to capture correctly the future decline of the AMOC. We conclude that, while a reduced array could be useful for estimates of the AMOC on subseasonal to decadal time scales as part of a near real-time data delivery system, extreme caution must be applied to avoid the potential misinterpretation or absence of a climate time scale AMOC decline that is a key motivation for the maintenance of these observations.Plain Language SummaryThe Atlantic Overturning Circulation is a system of ocean currents that carries heat northwards in the Atlantic. This heat is crucial to maintaining the mild climate of northwest Europe. The Overturning Circulation is predicted to slow in future in response to man-made climate change. The RAPID program is designed to measure the Overturning Circulation using a number of fixed point observations spanning the Atlantic between the Canary Islands and the Bahamas. We look at whether we could reduce the number of these fixed point observations to continue to get accurate estimates of the overturning strength but for less cost. We conclude that

The effect of sudden ice sheet melt on ocean circulation and surface climate

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Wickert, A. D.; Valdes, P. J.; Burke, A.

2017-12-01

Collapse of ice sheets can cause significant sea-level rise and widespread climate change. Around 14.6 thousand years ago, global mean sea level rose by 15 m in less than 350 years during an event known as Meltwater Pulse 1a. Ice sheet modelling and sea-level fingerprinting has suggested that approximately half of this 50 mm yr-1 sea level rise may have come from a North American ice Saddle Collapse that drained into the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. However, dating uncertainties make it difficult to determine the sequence of events and their drivers, leaving many fundamental questions. For example, was melting from the northern ice sheets responsible for the Older-Dryas or other global-scale cooling events, or did a contribution from Antarctica counteract the climatic effects? What was the role of the abrupt Bølling Warming? And how were all these signals linked to changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation?To address these questions, we examined the effect of the North American ice Saddle Collapse using a high resolution network drainage model coupled to an atmosphere-ocean-vegetation General Circulation Model. Here, we present the quantitative routing estimates of the consequent meltwater discharge and its impact on climate. We also tested a suite of more idealised meltwater forcing scenarios to examine the global influence of Arctic versus Antarctic ice melt. The results show that 50% of the Saddle Collapse meltwater pulse was routed via the Mackenzie River into the Arctic Ocean, and 50% was discharged directly into the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. This meltwater flux, equivalent to a total of 7.3 m of sea-level rise, caused a strong (6 Sv) weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling of 1-5 °C. The greatest cooling is in the Arctic (5-10 °C in the winter), but there is also significant winter warming over eastern North America (1-3 °C). We propose that this robust submillennial mechanism was

Planktonic interactions and chaotic advection in Langmuir circulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bees, Martin Alan; Mezic, I.; McGlade, J.

1998-01-01

The role of unsteady laminar flows for planktonic communities is investigated. Langmuir circulation is used, as a typical medium-scale structure, to illustrate mechanisms for the generation of plankton patches. Two behaviours are evident: chaotic regions that help to spread plankton and locally...

Global Exponential Stability of Delayed Cohen-Grossberg BAM Neural Networks with Impulses on Time Scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongkun Li

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the theory of calculus on time scales, the homeomorphism theory, Lyapunov functional method, and some analysis techniques, sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of Cohen-Grossberg bidirectional associative memory (BAM neural networks with distributed delays and impulses on time scales. This is the first time applying the time-scale calculus theory to unify the discrete-time and continuous-time Cohen-Grossberg BAM neural network with impulses under the same framework.

Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aalst, M.K. (Maarten Krispijn) van

2005-01-01

The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with

The contribution of the Weddell Gyre to the lower limb of the Global Overturning Circulation

OpenAIRE

Jullion, Loïc; Naveira Garabato, Alberto C.; Bacon, Sheldon; Meredith, Michael P.; Brown, Pete J.; Torres-Valdés, Sinhue; Speer, Kevin G.; Holland, Paul R.; Dong, Jun; Bakker, Dorothée; Hoppema, Mario; Loose, Brice; Venables, Hugh J.; Jenkins, William J.; Messias, Marie-José

2014-01-01

International audience; The horizontal and vertical circulation of the Weddell Gyre is diagnosed using a box inverse model constructed with recent hydrographic sections and including mobile sea ice and eddy transports. The gyre is found to convey 42 6 8 Sv (1 Sv 5 106 m3 s–1) across the central Weddell Sea and to intensify to 54 6 15 Sv further offshore. This circulation injects 36 6 13 TW of heat from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to the gyre, and exports 51 6 23 mSv of freshwater, inclu...

Visualization of Moderator Circulation with 1/8 scaled HU-KINS for Calandria Tank of CANDU6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, Dae Kun; Kim, Nam Seok; Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Man Woong

2005-01-01

The moderator cooling capability of Calandria tank is important during the hypothetical incident of CANDU reactor. Even though the loss of ECCS cooling, the heat of the nuclear fuel can be cooled by the heat transfer path through the contacting location between the pressure tube and Calandria tube. The moderator cooling system removes the heat from the fuel so it pays an ultimate heat sink for the nuclear safety. Therefore, the understanding and estimating the thermal hydraulic conditions of the circulating moderator in the Calandria is of importance. However, the three dimensional nature and complexity of the Calandria tubes make it difficult to analyze. Recent progress in the the three dimensional computational fluid dynamics including the model of turbulent flow stimulate the studies on this subject. For the design or safety analysis purpose, the mesh generation and furnishing proper physical models are imperative and the experimental validation should be performed. However, the experimental facilities have been constructed in the scaled way by the Canadian research groups, AECL and COG. Two facilities: SPEL (1/10 scale by Koroyannaski, 1983) and STERN (1/4 scale by Hadaller, 1990) have been producing experimental data such as the local temperatures and velocities. Several papers has been published to report their CFD codes can be available for the CANDU analysis by comparing the calculations with the experimental results of those facilities. However, as noted by Lee et al. the previous experimental facilities were not scaled properly both in the sense of the force balance between buoyancy force and the jet inertia force. Also, the power density of the moderator was not scaled properly. Therefore, it cannot be said that the observations through SPEL and STERN may have a certain discrepancy from the real CANDU-6 plant. Lee et al (2003) developed the scaling laws for the CANDU-6 and design a 1/8 scale experimental facility named as HU-KINS. In the present paper

Design and study of Engineering Test Facility - Helium Circulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Huijing; Ye Ping; Zhao Gang; Geng Yinan; Wang Jie

2015-01-01

Helium circulator is one of the key equipment of High-temperature Gas-cooled Reactor Pebble-bed Module (HTR-PM). In order to simulate most normal and accident operating conditions of helium circulator in HTR-PM, a full scale, rated flow rate and power, engineering test loop, which was called Engineering Test Facility - Helium Circulator (ETF-HC), was designed and established. Two prototypes of helium circulator, which was supported by Active Magnetic Bearing (AMB) or sealed by dry gas seals, would be tested on ETF-HC. Therefore, special interchangeable design was under consideration. ETF-HC was constructed compactly, which consisted of eleven sub-systems. In order to reduce the flow resistance of the circuit, special ducts, elbows, valves and flowmeters were selected. Two stages of heat exchange loops were designed and a helium - high pressure pure water heat exchanger was applied to ensure water wouldn't be vaporized while simulating accident conditions. Commissioning tests were carried out and operation results showed that ETF-HC meets the requirement of helium circulator operation. On this test facility, different kinds of experiments were supposed to be held, including mechanical and aerodynamic performance tests, durability tests and so on. These tests would provide the features and performance of helium circulator and verify its feasibility, availability and reliability. (author)

Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minjie Chen

Full Text Available Smallholder farming systems are vulnerable to a number of challenges, including continued population growth, urbanization, income disparities, land degradation, decreasing farm size and productivity, all of which are compounded by uncertainty of climatic patterns. Understanding determinants of smallholder farming practices is critical for designing and implementing successful interventions, including climate change adaptation programs. We examine two dimensions wherein smallholder farmers may adapt agricultural practices; through intensification (i.e., adopt more practices or diversification (i.e. adopt different practices. We use data on 5314 randomly sampled households located in 38 sites in 15 countries across four regions (East and West Africa, South Asia, and Central America. We estimate empirical models designed to assess determinants of both intensification and diversification of adaptation activities at global scales. Aspects of adaptive capacity that are found to increase intensification of adaptation globally include variables associated with access to information and human capital, financial considerations, assets, household infrastructure and experience. In contrast, there are few global drivers of adaptive diversification, with a notable exception being access to weather information, which also increases adaptive intensification. Investigating reasons for adaptation indicate that conditions present in underdeveloped markets provide the primary impetus for adaptation, even in the context of climate change. We also compare determinants across spatial scales, which reveals a variety of local avenues through which policy interventions can relax economic constraints and boost agricultural adaptation for both intensification and diversification. For example, access to weather information does not affect intensification adaptation in Africa, but is significant at several sites in Bangladesh and India. Moreover, this information leads to

Diversification and intensification of agricultural adaptation from global to local scales

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Minjie; Wichmann, Bruno; Luckert, Marty; Winowiecki, Leigh; Förch, Wiebke

2018-01-01

Smallholder farming systems are vulnerable to a number of challenges, including continued population growth, urbanization, income disparities, land degradation, decreasing farm size and productivity, all of which are compounded by uncertainty of climatic patterns. Understanding determinants of smallholder farming practices is critical for designing and implementing successful interventions, including climate change adaptation programs. We examine two dimensions wherein smallholder farmers may adapt agricultural practices; through intensification (i.e., adopt more practices) or diversification (i.e. adopt different practices). We use data on 5314 randomly sampled households located in 38 sites in 15 countries across four regions (East and West Africa, South Asia, and Central America). We estimate empirical models designed to assess determinants of both intensification and diversification of adaptation activities at global scales. Aspects of adaptive capacity that are found to increase intensification of adaptation globally include variables associated with access to information and human capital, financial considerations, assets, household infrastructure and experience. In contrast, there are few global drivers of adaptive diversification, with a notable exception being access to weather information, which also increases adaptive intensification. Investigating reasons for adaptation indicate that conditions present in underdeveloped markets provide the primary impetus for adaptation, even in the context of climate change. We also compare determinants across spatial scales, which reveals a variety of local avenues through which policy interventions can relax economic constraints and boost agricultural adaptation for both intensification and diversification. For example, access to weather information does not affect intensification adaptation in Africa, but is significant at several sites in Bangladesh and India. Moreover, this information leads to diversification of

Global and exponential attractors of the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere

OpenAIRE

You, Bo; Li, Fang

2016-01-01

This paper is concerned with the long-time behavior of solutions for the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere. We prove the existence of a global attractor for the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere by asymptotic a priori estimate and construct an exponential attractor by using the smoothing property of the semigroup generated by the three dimensional viscous primitive equations of large-scale moist atmosphere...

Using peripheral blood circulating DNAs to detect CpG global methylation status and genetic mutations in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iriyama, Chisako [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya (Japan); Tomita, Akihiro, E-mail: atomita@med.nagoya-u.ac.jp [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya (Japan); Hoshino, Hideaki; Adachi-Shirahata, Mizuho [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya (Japan); Furukawa-Hibi, Yoko; Yamada, Kiyofumi [Department of Neuropsychopharmacology and Hospital Pharmacy, Nagoya University School of Medicine, Nagoya (Japan); Kiyoi, Hitoshi; Naoe, Tomoki [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya (Japan)

2012-03-23

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Circulating DNAs (CDs) can be used to detect genetic/epigenetic abnormalities in MDS. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Epigenetic changes can be detected more sensitively when using plasma DNA than PBMNC. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Mutation ratio in CDs may reflect the ratio in stem cell population in bone marrow. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Using CDs can be a safer alternate strategy compared to bone marrow aspiration. -- Abstract: Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is a hematopoietic stem cell disorder. Several genetic/epigenetic abnormalities are deeply associated with the pathogenesis of MDS. Although bone marrow (BM) aspiration is a common strategy to obtain MDS cells for evaluating their genetic/epigenetic abnormalities, BM aspiration is difficult to perform repeatedly to obtain serial samples because of pain and safety concerns. Here, we report that circulating cell-free DNAs from plasma and serum of patients with MDS can be used to detect genetic/epigenetic abnormalities. The plasma DNA concentration was found to be relatively high in patients with higher blast cell counts in BM, and accumulation of DNA fragments from mono-/di-nucleosomes was confirmed. Using serial peripheral blood (PB) samples from patients treated with hypomethylating agents, global methylation analysis using bisulfite pyrosequencing was performed at the specific CpG sites of the LINE-1 promoter. The results confirmed a decrease of the methylation percentage after treatment with azacitidine (days 3-9) using DNAs from plasma, serum, and PB mono-nuclear cells (PBMNC). Plasma DNA tends to show more rapid change at days 3 and 6 compared with serum DNA and PBMNC. Furthermore, the TET2 gene mutation in DNAs from plasma, serum, and BM cells was quantitated by pyrosequencing analysis. The existence ratio of mutated genes in plasma and serum DNA showed almost equivalent level with that in the CD34+/38- stem cell population in BM. These data suggest that genetic

Using peripheral blood circulating DNAs to detect CpG global methylation status and genetic mutations in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iriyama, Chisako; Tomita, Akihiro; Hoshino, Hideaki; Adachi-Shirahata, Mizuho; Furukawa-Hibi, Yoko; Yamada, Kiyofumi; Kiyoi, Hitoshi; Naoe, Tomoki

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Circulating DNAs (CDs) can be used to detect genetic/epigenetic abnormalities in MDS. ► Epigenetic changes can be detected more sensitively when using plasma DNA than PBMNC. ► Mutation ratio in CDs may reflect the ratio in stem cell population in bone marrow. ► Using CDs can be a safer alternate strategy compared to bone marrow aspiration. -- Abstract: Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) is a hematopoietic stem cell disorder. Several genetic/epigenetic abnormalities are deeply associated with the pathogenesis of MDS. Although bone marrow (BM) aspiration is a common strategy to obtain MDS cells for evaluating their genetic/epigenetic abnormalities, BM aspiration is difficult to perform repeatedly to obtain serial samples because of pain and safety concerns. Here, we report that circulating cell-free DNAs from plasma and serum of patients with MDS can be used to detect genetic/epigenetic abnormalities. The plasma DNA concentration was found to be relatively high in patients with higher blast cell counts in BM, and accumulation of DNA fragments from mono-/di-nucleosomes was confirmed. Using serial peripheral blood (PB) samples from patients treated with hypomethylating agents, global methylation analysis using bisulfite pyrosequencing was performed at the specific CpG sites of the LINE-1 promoter. The results confirmed a decrease of the methylation percentage after treatment with azacitidine (days 3–9) using DNAs from plasma, serum, and PB mono-nuclear cells (PBMNC). Plasma DNA tends to show more rapid change at days 3 and 6 compared with serum DNA and PBMNC. Furthermore, the TET2 gene mutation in DNAs from plasma, serum, and BM cells was quantitated by pyrosequencing analysis. The existence ratio of mutated genes in plasma and serum DNA showed almost equivalent level with that in the CD34+/38- stem cell population in BM. These data suggest that genetic/epigenetic analyses using PB circulating DNA can be a safer and painless alternative to using BM

The reduction method of statistic scale applied to study of climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernal Suarez, Nestor Ricardo; Molina Lizcano, Alicia; Martinez Collantes, Jorge; Pabon Jose Daniel

2000-01-01

In climate change studies the global circulation models of the atmosphere (GCMAs) enable one to simulate the global climate, with the field variables being represented on a grid points 300 km apart. One particular interest concerns the simulation of possible changes in rainfall and surface air temperature due to an assumed increase of greenhouse gases. However, the models yield the climatic projections on grid points that in most cases do not correspond to the sites of major interest. To achieve local estimates of the climatological variables, methods like the one known as statistical down scaling are applied. In this article we show a case in point by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to the Guajira Region in the northeast of Colombia

Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meng, Qingjia [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, River and Coastal Environment Research Center, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Qingdao (China); Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Martin, Thomas [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Semenov, Vladimir A. [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)

2012-05-15

Recent studies indicate a weakening of the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century. Here, we present evidence from an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by the history of observed sea surface temperature (SST) that the Walker Circulation may have intensified rather than weakened. Observed Equatorial Indo-Pacific Sector SST since 1870 exhibited a zonally asymmetric evolution: While the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific showed only a weak warming, or even cooling in one SST dataset, the western part and the Equatorial Indian Ocean exhibited a rather strong warming. This has resulted in an increase of the SST gradient between the Maritime Continent and the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, one driving force of the Walker Circulation. The ensemble experiments with the AGCM, with and without time-varying external forcing, suggest that the enhancement of the SST gradient drove an anomalous atmospheric circulation, with an enhancement of both Walker and Hadley Circulation. Anomalously strong precipitation is simulated over the Indian Ocean and anomalously weak precipitation over the western Pacific, with corresponding changes in the surface wind pattern. Some sensitivity to the forcing SST, however, is noticed. The analysis of twentieth century integrations with global climate models driven with observed radiative forcing obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database support the link between the SST gradient and Walker Circulation strength. Furthermore, control integrations with the CMIP models indicate the existence of strong internal variability on centennial timescales. The results suggest that a radiatively forced signal in the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century may have been too weak to be detectable. (orig.)

Geothermal heating, diapycnal mixing and the abyssal circulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Emile-Geay

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The dynamical role of geothermal heating in abyssal circulation is reconsidered using three independent arguments. First, we show that a uniform geothermal heat flux close to the observed average (86.4 mW m⁻² supplies as much heat to near-bottom water as a diapycnal mixing rate of ~10⁻⁴ m² s⁻¹ – the canonical value thought to be responsible for the magnitude of the present-day abyssal circulation. This parity raises the possibility that geothermal heating could have a dynamical impact of the same order. Second, we estimate the magnitude of geothermally-induced circulation with the density-binning method (Walin, 1982, applied to the observed thermohaline structure of Levitus (1998. The method also allows to investigate the effect of realistic spatial variations of the flux obtained from heatflow measurements and classical theories of lithospheric cooling. It is found that a uniform heatflow forces a transformation of ~6 Sv at σ₄=45.90, which is of the same order as current best estimates of AABW circulation. This transformation can be thought of as the geothermal circulation in the absence of mixing and is very similar for a realistic heatflow, albeit shifted towards slightly lighter density classes. Third, we use a general ocean circulation model in global configuration to perform three sets of experiments: (1 a thermally homogenous abyssal ocean with and without uniform geothermal heating; (2 a more stratified abyssal ocean subject to (i no geothermal heating, (ii a constant heat flux of 86.4 mW m⁻², (iii a realistic, spatially varying heat flux of identical global average; (3 experiments (i and (iii with enhanced vertical mixing at depth. Geothermal heating and diapycnal mixing are found to interact non-linearly through the density field, with geothermal heating eroding the deep stratification supporting a downward diffusive flux, while diapycnal mixing acts to map

Scaling up Corporate Social Investments in Education: Five Strategies That Work. Global Views. Policy Paper 2012-01