Severe Weather Environments in Atmospheric Reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

King, A. T.; Kennedy, A. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric reanalyses combine historical observation data using a fixed assimilation scheme to achieve a dynamically coherent representation of the atmosphere. How well these reanalyses represent severe weather environments via proxies is poorly defined. To quantify the performance of reanalyses, a database of proximity soundings near severe storms from the Rapid Update Cycle 2 (RUC-2) model will be compared to a suite of reanalyses including: North American Reanalysis (NARR), European Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), 2nd Modern-Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A variety of severe weather parameters will be calculated from these soundings including: convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), supercell composite parameter (SCP), and significant tornado parameter (STP). These soundings will be generated using the SHARPpy python module, which is an open source tool used to calculate severe weather parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the NARR and JRA55 are significantly more skilled at producing accurate severe weather environments than the other reanalyses. The primary difference between these two reanalyses and the remaining reanalyses is a significant negative bias for thermodynamic parameters. To facilitate climatological studies, the scope of work will be expanded to compute these parameters for the entire domain and duration of select renalyses. Preliminary results from this effort will be presented and compared to observations at select locations. This dataset will be made pubically available to the larger scientific community, and details of this product will be provided.

Applications For Real Time NOMADS At NCEP To Disseminate NOAA's Operational Model Data Base

Science.gov (United States)

Alpert, J. C.; Wang, J.; Rutledge, G.

2007-05-01

A wide range of environmental information, in digital form, with metadata descriptions and supporting infrastructure is contained in the NOAA Operational Modeling Archive Distribution System (NOMADS) and its Real Time (RT) project prototype at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). NOMADS is now delivering on its goal of a seamless framework, from archival to real time data dissemination for NOAA's operational model data holdings. A process is under way to make NOMADS part of NCEP's operational production of products. A goal is to foster collaborations among the research and education communities, value added retailers, and public access for science and development. In the National Research Council's "Completing the Forecast", Recommendation 3.4 states: "NOMADS should be maintained and extended to include (a) long-term archives of the global and regional ensemble forecasting systems at their native resolution, and (b) re-forecast datasets to facilitate post-processing." As one of many participants of NOMADS, NCEP serves the operational model data base using data application protocol (Open-DAP) and other services for participants to serve their data sets and users to obtain them. Using the NCEP global ensemble data as an example, we show an Open-DAP (also known as DODS) client application that provides a request-and-fulfill mechanism for access to the complex ensemble matrix of holdings. As an example of the DAP service, we show a client application which accesses the Global or Regional Ensemble data set to produce user selected weather element event probabilities. The event probabilities are easily extended over model forecast time to show probability histograms defining the future trend of user selected events. This approach insures an efficient use of computer resources because users transmit only the data necessary for their tasks. Data sets are served by OPeN-DAP allowing commercial clients such as MATLAB or IDL as well as freeware clients

Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Sean M.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Dragani, Rossana; Harada, Yayoi; Kobayashi, Chiaki; Long, Craig; Manney, Gloria L.; Nash, Eric R.; Potter, Gerald L.; Tegtmeier, Susann; Wang, Tao; Wargan, Krzysztof; Wright, Jonathon S.

2017-10-01

Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields.The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses.In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that

NCEP Central Operations

Science.gov (United States)

) NCO Organizational Chart NOAA's Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System is known as Climate Climate Prediction Climate Archives Weather Safety Storm Ready NOAA Central Library Photo Library NCO's MISSION * Execute the NCEP operational model suite - Create climate, weather, ocean, space and

NCEP/CPC L3 Half Hourly 4km Global (60S - 60N) Merged IR V1 (GPM_MERGIR) at GES DISC

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — These data originate from NOAA/NCEP. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS is making the data available originally in binary format, in a weekly rotating...

Water vapor variability and comparisons in the subtropical Pacific from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Driftsonde, Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), and reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Junhong; Zhang, Liangying; Lin, Po-Hsiung; Bradford, Mark; Cole, Harold; Fox, Jack; Hock, Terry; Lauritsen, Dean; Loehrer, Scot; Martin, Charlie; Vanandel, Joseph; Weng, Chun-Hsiung; Young, Kathryn

2010-11-01

During the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC), from 1 August to 30 September 2008, ˜1900 high-quality, high vertical resolution soundings were collected over the Pacific Ocean. These include dropsondes deployed from four aircrafts and zero-pressure balloons in the stratosphere (NCAR's Driftsonde system). The water vapor probability distribution and spatial variability in the northern subtropical Pacific (14°-20°N, 140°E-155°W) are studied using Driftsonde and COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) data and four global reanalysis products. Driftsonde data analysis shows distinct differences of relative humidity (RH) distributions in the free troposphere between the Eastern and Western Pacific (EP and WP, defined as east and west of 180°, respectively), very dry with a single peak of ˜1% RH in the EP and bi-modal distributions in the WP with one peak near ice saturation and one varying with altitude. The frequent occurrences of extreme dry air are found in the driftsonde data with 59% and 19% of RHs less than or equal to 5% and at 1% at 500 hPa in the EP, respectively. RH with respect to ice in the free troposphere exhibits considerable longitudinal variations, very low (problems in Driftsonde, two National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses and COSMIC data. The moist layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP shown in the ERA-Interim, JRA and COSMIC is missing in Driftsonde data. Major problems are found in the RH means and variability over the study region for both NCEP reanalyses. Although the higher-moisture layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP in the COSMIC data agrees well with the ERA-Interim and JRA, it is primarily attributed to the first guess of the 1-Dimensional (1D) variational analysis used in the COSMIC retrieval rather than the refractivity measurements. The limited soundings (total 268) of Driftsonde data are capable of

NCEP Internal Office Notes

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and its predecessors have produced internal publications, known as Office Notes, since the mid-1950's. In...

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Xue, Yan; Szekely, Tanguy; Fukumori, Ichiro; Forget, Gael; Chang, You-Soon; Good, Simon A.; Köhl, Armin; Vernieres, Guillaume; Ferry, Nicolas; Peterson, K. Andrew; Behringer, David; Ishii, Masayoshi; Masuda, Shuhei; Fujii, Yosuke; Toyoda, Takahiro; Yin, Yonghong; Valdivieso, Maria; Barnier, Bernard; Boyer, Tim; Lee, Tony; Gourrion, Jérome; Wang, Ou; Heimback, Patrick; Rosati, Anthony; Kovach, Robin; Hernandez, Fabrice; Martin, Matthew J.; Kamachi, Masafumi; Kuragano, Tsurane; Mogensen, Kristian; Alves, Oscar; Haines, Keith; Wang, Xiaochun

2017-08-01

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003-2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993-2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Regional improvement of global reanalyses by means of a new long-term Mediterranean hindcasted precipitation dataset: a first study over the Iberian Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. G. Sotillo

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Generation of a Mediterranean long-term (1958-2001 homogeneous high resolution environmental database constituted the main objective whitin the HIPOCAS Project. The high number of parameters included in this database allows a complete characterization of Mediterranean storms. In this paper, the HIPOCAS precipitation reliability over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands is evaluated against long-term in-situ observations from Iberia. In order to provide a more complete study, comparisons of the HIPOCAS field with NCEP/NCAR and ERA global reanalysis show the important improvement in the characterisation of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast.

Tropical cyclones in two atmospheric (re)analyses and their response in two oceanic reanalyses

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Jourdain, N.C.; Barnier, B.; Ferry, N.; Vialard, J.; Menkes, C.E.; Lengaigne, M.; Parent, L.

composites in Fig. 7). We focus our description of the mechanisms on strong TCs in GLORYS1 to emphasize the major issues in the ocean reanalyses, and GLORYS2 is not shown because it has a very similar temperature response to GLORYS1. In the top 30 m and over...

Recent Regional Climate State and Change - Derived through Downscaling Homogeneous Large-scale Components of Re-analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Von Storch, H.; Klehmet, K.; Geyer, B.; Li, D.; Schubert-Frisius, M.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

2015-12-01

Global re-analyses suffer from inhomogeneities, as they process data from networks under development. However, the large-scale component of such re-analyses is mostly homogeneous; additional observational data add in most cases to a better description of regional details and less so on large-scale states. Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complementing the large-scale state of the re-analyses with regional detail - wherever the condition of homogeneity of the large-scales is fulfilled. Technically this can be done by using a regional climate model, or a global climate model, which is constrained on the large scale by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional risks - in particular marine risks - was identified. While the data density in Europe is considerably better than in most other regions of the world, even here insufficient spatial and temporal coverage is limiting risk assessments. Therefore, downscaled data-sets are frequently used by off-shore industries. We have run this system also in regions with reduced or absent data coverage, such as the Lena catchment in Siberia, in the Yellow Sea/Bo Hai region in East Asia, in Namibia and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Also a global (large scale constrained) simulation has been. It turns out that spatially detailed reconstruction of the state and change of climate in the three to six decades is doable for any region of the world.The different data sets are archived and may freely by used for scientific purposes. Of course, before application, a careful analysis of the quality for the intended application is needed, as sometimes unexpected changes in the quality of the description of large-scale driving states prevail.

NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 project is using a state-of-the-art analysis/forecast system to perform data assimilation using past data from 1979 through near present....

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

Science.gov (United States)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

Use of Atmospheric Budget to Reduce Uncertainty in Estimated Water Availability over South Asia from Different Reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Sebastian, Dawn Emil; Pathak, Amey; Ghosh, Subimal

2016-07-01

Disagreements across different reanalyses over South Asia result into uncertainty in assessment of water availability, which is computed as the difference between Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (P-E). Here, we compute P-E directly from atmospheric budget with divergence of moisture flux for different reanalyses and find improved correlation with observed values of P-E, acquired from station and satellite data. We also find reduced closure terms for water cycle computed with atmospheric budget, analysed over South Asian landmass, when compared to that obtained with individual values of P and E. The P-E value derived with atmospheric budget is more consistent with energy budget, when we use top-of-atmosphere radiation for the same. For analysing water cycle, we use runoff from Global Land Data Assimilation System, and water storage from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We find improvements in agreements across different reanalyses, in terms of inter-annual cross correlation when atmospheric budget is used to estimate P-E and hence, emphasize to use the same for estimations of water availability in South Asia to reduce uncertainty. Our results on water availability with reduced uncertainty over highly populated monsoon driven South Asia will be useful for water management and agricultural decision making.

Use of Atmospheric Budget to Reduce Uncertainty in Estimated Water Availability over South Asia from Different Reanalyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Sebastian, Dawn Emil; Pathak, Amey; Ghosh, Subimal

2016-07-08

Disagreements across different reanalyses over South Asia result into uncertainty in assessment of water availability, which is computed as the difference between Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (P-E). Here, we compute P-E directly from atmospheric budget with divergence of moisture flux for different reanalyses and find improved correlation with observed values of P-E, acquired from station and satellite data. We also find reduced closure terms for water cycle computed with atmospheric budget, analysed over South Asian landmass, when compared to that obtained with individual values of P and E. The P-E value derived with atmospheric budget is more consistent with energy budget, when we use top-of-atmosphere radiation for the same. For analysing water cycle, we use runoff from Global Land Data Assimilation System, and water storage from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. We find improvements in agreements across different reanalyses, in terms of inter-annual cross correlation when atmospheric budget is used to estimate P-E and hence, emphasize to use the same for estimations of water availability in South Asia to reduce uncertainty. Our results on water availability with reduced uncertainty over highly populated monsoon driven South Asia will be useful for water management and agricultural decision making.

NCEP BUFRLIB Software User Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Integration Branch > Decoders > BUFRLIB BUFRLIB Software User Guide This document set describes how to use the NCEP BUFRLIB software to encode or decode BUFR messages. It is not intended to be a primer on background knowledge of the basic concepts of BUFR and will focus solely on how to use the BUFRLIB software

A clear-sky hyperspectral closure study for MERRA-2 and ERA-interim reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, X.; Huang, X.; Loeb, N. G.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Dolinar, E. K.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Kato, S.; Smith, W. L., Jr.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.

2017-12-01

We carried out a clear-sky radiance closure study to compare four sets of synthetic AIRS spectra to 51 AIRS L1 spectra over the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The AIRS observations were made when the ARM SGP cloud radar identified cloud free situation for 50-km region within the SGP site. Four sets of synthetic AIRS spectra are calculated using collocated atmospheric profiles from ARM SGP sounding, AIRS L2 retrievals, MERRA-2 and ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. Only channels that are sensitive to temperature, CO2 and water vapor and not to other trace gases are selected for study. The selected channels are further divided into different groups according to their sensitivities to the emission from different vertical levels and to H2O and CO2, respectively. Observed and synthetic radiances of each group are then examined. For synthetic spectra using the AIRS L2 retrievals or the ARM SGP sounding profiles, the brightness temperature (BT) differences between synthetic and observed ones are within ±0.5 K or even smaller, for all groups and for all four seasons. For MERRA-2 and ECMWF-interim reanalyses, the BT differences from observations for each CO2 group are generally within ±0.5 K, indicating good agreements with respect to temperature profiles in the reanalyses. The BT differences for H2O groups are all negative, ranging from -0.5K to -1.5K. The largest BT difference is -1.5K for H2O channels peaking at 400-200 hPa. Such BT difference is persistent when the synthetic radiances based on reanalyses are compared with observed ones for the entire zone of 30°N-40°N. These comparisons imply that the reanalyses can represent the temperature profile well but there is persistent wet bias in the reanalyses, especially for the upper troposphere. The water vapor at 400-200 hPa in reanalyses needs to be adjusted by about -0.01 g/kg in order to reach agreement with the observed radiances.

Reliability of reanalyses products in simulating precipitation and ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

45

reanalyses in replicating the observed climate data at various regions is of utmost interest. .... This dataset accurately captures the orographic influence of precipitation and ...... Clouds and Precipitation, International Commission on Clouds and ...

Accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures from reanalyses evaluated from A-Train CALIOP and MLS, COSMIC GPS RO, and the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions and ice clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Alyn; Santee, Michelle L.

2018-02-01

We investigate the accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures (100-10 hPa during 2008-2013) reported in several contemporary reanalysis datasets comprising two versions of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-I), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR). We also include the Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5.9.1 near-real-time analysis (GEOS-5.9.1). Comparisons of these datasets are made with respect to retrieved temperatures from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) temperatures, and independent absolute temperature references defined by the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions (STSs) and ice clouds. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations of polar stratospheric clouds are used to determine the cloud particle types within the Aura MLS geometric field of view. The thermodynamic calculations for STS and the ice frost point use the colocated MLS gas-phase measurements of HNO3 and H2O. The estimated bias and precision for the STS temperature reference, over the 68 to 21 hPa pressure range, are 0.6-1.5 and 0.3-0.6 K, respectively; for the ice temperature reference, they are 0.4 and 0.3 K, respectively. These uncertainties are smaller than those estimated for the retrieved MLS temperatures and also comparable to GPS RO uncertainties (bias 0.7 K) in the same pressure range. We examine a case study of the time-varying temperature structure associated with layered ice clouds formed by orographic gravity waves forced by flow over the Palmer Peninsula and

Can oceanic reanalyses be used to assess recent anthropogenic changes and low-frequency internal variability of upper ocean temperature?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Corre, L.; Terray, L.; Weaver, A. [Cerfacs-CNRS, Toulouse (France); Balmaseda, M. [E.C.M.W.F, Reading (United Kingdom); Ribes, A. [CNRM-GAME, Meteo France-CNRS, Toulouse (France)

2012-03-15

A multivariate analysis of the upper ocean thermal structure is used to examine the recent long-term changes and decadal variability in the upper ocean heat content as represented by model-based ocean reanalyses and a model-independent objective analysis. The three variables used are the mean temperature above the 14 C isotherm, its depth and a fixed depth mean temperature (250 m mean temperature). The mean temperature above the 14 C isotherm is a convenient, albeit simple, way to isolate thermodynamical changes by filtering out dynamical changes related to thermocline vertical displacements. The global upper ocean observations and reanalyses exhibit very similar warming trends (0.045 C per decade) over the period 1965-2005, superimposed with marked decadal variability in the 1970s and 1980s. The spatial patterns of the regression between indices (representative of anthropogenic changes and known modes of internal decadal variability), and the three variables associated with the ocean heat content are used as fingerprint to separate out the different contributions. The choice of variables provides information about the local heat absorption, vertical distribution and horizontal redistribution of heat, this latter being suggestive of changes in ocean circulation. The discrepancy between the objective analysis and the reanalyses, as well as the spread among the different reanalyses, are used as a simple estimate of ocean state uncertainties. Two robust findings result from this analysis: (1) the signature of anthropogenic changes is qualitatively different from those of the internal decadal variability associated to the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation, and (2) the anthropogenic changes in ocean heat content do not only consist of local heat absorption, but are likely related with changes in the ocean circulation, with a clear shallowing of the tropical thermocline in the Pacific and Indian oceans. (orig.)

Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jiande [I.M. System Group Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2012-06-15

While large-scale circulation fields from atmospheric reanalyses have been widely used to study the tropical intraseasonal variability, rainfall variations from the reanalyses are less focused. Because of the sparseness of in situ observations available in the tropics and strong coupling between convection and large-scale circulation, the accuracy of tropical rainfall from the reanalyses not only measures the quality of reanalysis rainfall but is also to some extent indicative of the accuracy of the circulations fields. This study analyzes tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the recently completed NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and its comparison with the widely used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2). The R1 produces too weak rainfall variability while the R2 generates too strong westward propagation. Compared with the R1 and R2, the CFSR produces greatly improved tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability with the dominance of eastward propagation and more realistic amplitude. An analysis of the relationship between rainfall and large-scale fields using composites based on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events shows that, in all three NCEP reanalyses, the moisture convergence leading the rainfall maximum is near the surface in the western Pacific but is above 925 hPa in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the CFSR produces the strongest large-scale convergence and the rainfall from CFSR lags the column integrated precipitable water by 1 or 2 days while R1 and R2 rainfall tends to lead the respective precipitable water. Diabatic heating related to the MJO variability in the CFSR is analyzed and compared with that derived from large-scale fields. It is found that the amplitude of CFSR-produced total heating anomalies is smaller than that of the derived. Rainfall variability from the other two recently produced reanalyses, the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and

The influence of global warming in Earth rotation speed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Abarca del Rio

1999-06-01

Full Text Available The tendency of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM is investigated using a 49-year set of monthly AAM data for the period January 1949-December 1997. This data set is constructed with zonal wind values from the reanalyses of NCEP/NCAR, used in conjunction with a variety of operationally produced AAM time series with different independent sources and lengths over 1976-1997. In all the analyzed AAM series the linear trend is found to be positive. Since the angular momentum of the atmosphere-earth system is conserved this corresponds to a net loss of angular momentum by the solid earth, therefore decreasing the Earth rotation speed and increasing the length of day (LOD. The AAM rise is significant to the budget of angular momentum of the global atmosphere-earth system; its value in milliseconds/century (ms/cy is +0.56 ms/cy, corresponding to one-third of the estimated increase in LOD (+1.7 ms/cy. The major contribution to this secular trend in AAM comes from the equatorial Tropopause. This is consistent with results from a previous study using a simplified aqua-planet model to investigate the AAM variations due to near equatorial warming conditions. During the same time interval, 1949-1997, the global marine + land-surface temperature increases by about 0.79 °C/cy, showing a linear correspondence between surface temperature increase and global AAM of about 0.07 ms per 0.1 °C. These results imply that atmospheric angular momentum may be used as an independent index of the global atmosphere's dynamical response to the greenhouse forcing, and as such, the length of day may be used as an indirect indicator of global warming.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (general circulation · Geodesy

The influence of global warming in Earth rotation speed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Abarca del Rio

Full Text Available The tendency of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM is investigated using a 49-year set of monthly AAM data for the period January 1949-December 1997. This data set is constructed with zonal wind values from the reanalyses of NCEP/NCAR, used in conjunction with a variety of operationally produced AAM time series with different independent sources and lengths over 1976-1997. In all the analyzed AAM series the linear trend is found to be positive. Since the angular momentum of the atmosphere-earth system is conserved this corresponds to a net loss of angular momentum by the solid earth, therefore decreasing the Earth rotation speed and increasing the length of day (LOD. The AAM rise is significant to the budget of angular momentum of the global atmosphere-earth system; its value in milliseconds/century (ms/cy is +0.56 ms/cy, corresponding to one-third of the estimated increase in LOD (+1.7 ms/cy. The major contribution to this secular trend in AAM comes from the equatorial Tropopause. This is consistent with results from a previous study using a simplified aqua-planet model to investigate the AAM variations due to near equatorial warming conditions. During the same time interval, 1949-1997, the global marine + land-surface temperature increases by about 0.79 °C/cy, showing a linear correspondence between surface temperature increase and global AAM of about 0.07 ms per 0.1 °C. These results imply that atmospheric angular momentum may be used as an independent index of the global atmosphere's dynamical response to the greenhouse forcing, and as such, the length of day may be used as an indirect indicator of global warming.

Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (general circulation · Geodesy

Space-time variability of hydrological drought and wetness in Iran using NCEP/NCAR and GPCC datasets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Raziei

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Space-time variability of hydrological drought and wetness over Iran is investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC dataset for the common period 1948–2007. The aim is to complement previous studies on the detection of long-term trends in drought/wetness time series and on the applicability of reanalysis data for drought monitoring in Iran. Climate conditions of the area are assessed through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI on 24-month time scale, while Principal Component Analysis (PCA and Varimax rotation are used for investigating drought/wetness variability, and drought regionalization, respectively. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is applied to the time series of interest to extract the leading nonlinear components and compare them with linear fittings.

Differences in drought and wetness area coverage resulting from the two datasets are discussed also in relation to the change occurred in recent years. NCEP/NCAR and GPCC are in good agreement in identifying four sub-regions as principal spatial modes of drought variability. However, the climate variability in each area is not univocally represented by the two datasets: a good agreement is found for south-eastern and north-western regions, while noticeable discrepancies occur for central and Caspian sea regions. A comparison with NCEP Reanalysis II for the period 1979–2007, seems to exclude that the discrepancies are merely due to the introduction of satellite data into the reanalysis assimilation scheme.

Monsoon oscillations of the Findlater Jet and coastal winds of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Pankajakshan, T.; Zhao, C.; Muraleedharan, P.M.; Rao, G.S.P.; Sugimori, Y.

Intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Low Level Jet (LLJ) and its effects on coastal winds during the Indian summer monsoon are examined using National Centre for Environmental Prediction / National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP) reanalyses...

Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.; Sun, Xiaoming

2018-03-01

Distributions of ocean mixed layer temperature trends and trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere differ, indicating the important role of the transport of heat within the ocean for determining temperature trends. Annual-mean, linear trends in the components of the tropical ocean mixed layer heat budget for 1980-2015 are diagnosed in 4 ocean reanalyses to improve our physical understanding of multidecadal-scale SST trends. The well-known temperature trend in the tropical Pacific, with cooling in the east and warming in the west, is reproduced in each reanalysis with high statistical significance. Cooling in the east is associated with negative trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere and enhanced equatorial upwelling related to a strengthening of the subtropical cells. Negative trends in the net heat flux also occur in the western tropical Pacific, but advective warming associated with a strengthening and shoaling of the equatorial undercurrent overwhelms these negative trends. The strengthening of the equatorial undercurrent is consistent with enhanced easterly wind stress, which is applied to the ocean reanalyses, and differential sea level trends that enhance the negative zonal height gradient across the Pacific. The Pacific North Equatorial countercurrent is also strengthening in all 4 reanalyses in association with a strengthening of the sea level trough at 10°N in the central and eastern Pacific. All 4 ocean reanalyses produce warming of 0.1-0.3 K/decade in the North Atlantic with statistical significance levels ranging from below 90-99%. The Atlantic is similar to the Pacific in having the equatorial undercurrent strengthening, but indications of shoaling are less consistent in the reanalyses and the North Equatorial Countercurrent in the Atlantic is not strengthening. Large-scale ocean mixed layer warming trends in the Indian Ocean in the reanalyses are interrupted by some regional cooling close to the equator. Net surface heat flux trends

The Global Monsoon as Seen through the Divergent Atmospheric Circulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Stepaniak, David P.; Caron, Julie M.

2000-11-01

A comprehensive description is given of the global monsoon as seen through the large-scale overturning in the atmosphere that changes with the seasons, and it provides a basis for delimiting the monsoon regions of the world. The analysis focuses on the mean annual cycle of the divergent winds and associated vertical motions, as given by the monthly mean fields for 1979-93 reanalyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which are able to reproduce the dominant modes. A complex empirical orthogonal function analysis of the divergent circulation brings out two dominant modes with essentially the same vertical structures in all months of the year. The first mode, which depicts the global monsoon, has a simple vertical structure with a maximum in vertical motion at about 400 mb, divergence in the upper troposphere that is strongest at 150 mb and decays to zero amplitude above 70 mb, and convergence in the lower troposphere with a maximum at 925 mb (ECMWF) or 850 mb (NCEP). However, this mode has a rich three-dimensional spatial structure that evolves with the seasons. It accounts for 60% of the annual cycle variance of the divergent mass circulation and dominates the Hadley circulation as well as three overturning transverse cells. These include the Pacific Walker circulation; an Americas-Atlantic Walker circulation, both of which comprise rising motion in the west and sinking in the east; and a transverse cell over Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Indian Ocean that has rising motion in the east and sinking toward the west. These exist year-round but migrate and evolve considerably with the seasons and have about a third to half of the mass flux of the peak Hadley cell. The annual cycle of the two Hadley cells reveals peak strength in early February and early August in both reanalyses.A second monsoon mode, which accounts for

NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria for metabolic syndrome predict type 2 diabetes mellitus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Sulistiowati

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Background Subjects with metabolic syndrome (MetS have a greater risk for acquiring type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2 DM. The MetS criteria usually used are those of the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel (NCEP and Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III and of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF. This study aimed to evaluate the modified NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria as predictor of type 2 DM among subjects with MetS.   Methods A cohort study was conducted among 4240 subjects with MetS. MetS was determined according to the modified NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria. The study followed up 3324 non-diabetic subjects of the cohort study of non-communicable disease (NCD risk factors (NCD study during a 2-year period. Type 2 DM was determined from the diagnosis by health personnel or from fasting blood glucose of ≥126 mg/dL or blood glucose of ≥200 mg/dL, 2 hours after 75g glucose loading.   Results The MetS prevalence based on modified NCEP ATP III and IDF criteria in non-DM subjects was 17.1% and 15.6%, respectively. The risk for DM in subjects with MetS using modified NCEP ATP III and IDF criteria was 4.7 (CI 95%: 3.4-6.5 and 4.1 (CI 95%: 3.0-5.7, respectively.   Conclusions Both MetS criteria can be used as predictors of the occurrence of DM type 2, but the modified NCEP-ATP III is more properly applied than the IDF criteria in subjects with MetS. Screening programs and routine monitoring of MetS components are required for early detection of type 2 DM.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome using NCEP-ATPIII and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

To estimate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome using ınternational dietetics federation (IDF) versus National cholesterol education program; adult treatment panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) definitions in Turkish adults. A cross-sectional study was conducted on a total of 1531 (male 758 and female 773) Turkish adults, aged ...

Representation of solar tides in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere in state-of-the-art reanalyses and in satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Sakazaki, Takatoshi; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Shiotani, Masato

2018-02-01

Atmospheric solar tides in the stratosphere and the lower mesosphere are investigated using temperature data from five state-of-the-art reanalysis data sets (MERRA-2, MERRA, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR) as well as TIMED SABER and Aura MLS satellite measurements. The main focus is on the period 2006-2012 during which the satellite observations are available for direct comparison with the reanalyses. Diurnal migrating tides, semidiurnal migrating tides, and nonmigrating tides are diagnosed. Overall the reanalyses agree reasonably well with each other and with the satellite observations for both migrating and nonmigrating components, including their vertical structure and the seasonality. However, the agreement among reanalyses is more pronounced in the lower stratosphere and relatively weaker in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. A systematic difference between SABER and the reanalyses is found for diurnal migrating tides in the upper stratosphere and the lower mesosphere; specifically, the amplitude of trapped modes in reanalyses is significantly smaller than that in SABER, although such difference is less clear between MLS and the reanalyses. The interannual variability and the possibility of long-term changes in migrating tides are also examined using the reanalyses during 1980-2012. All the reanalyses agree in exhibiting a clear quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tides, but the most significant indications of long-term changes in the tides represented in the reanalyses are most plausibly explained by the evolution of the satellite observing systems during this period. The tides are also compared in the full reanalyses produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency (i.e., JRA-55) and in two parallel data sets from this agency: one (JRA-55C) that repeats the reanalysis procedure but without any satellite data assimilated and one (JRA-55AMIP) that is a free-running integration of the model constrained only by observed sea surface temperatures. Many aspects

Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Bohua; Kinter, James L. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-01-15

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. (orig.)

Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Bohua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kinter, James L.; Wu, Zhaohua; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Global Forecast System (GFS) [1 Deg.

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and...

Role of the Angola Low in modulating southern African austral summer rainfall and relationships with synoptic and interannual modes of variability

Science.gov (United States)

Crétat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieppois, Bastien

2017-04-01

The Angola Low has been suggested in many previous studies to be an important regional feature governing southern African rainfall variability during austral summer, which is, in particular, expressed through modulations of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on rainfall at the interannual timescale. Here, we analyse a variety of state-of-the-art reanalyses (NCEP2, ERA-Interim and MERRA2) and rainfall data (in situ rain-gauges and satellite-derived products) for: i) identifying the recurrent regimes of the Angola Low (position and intensity) at the daily timescale; ii) diagnosing how they modulate the spatio-temporal variability of austral summer rainfall; and iii) examining their relationships with synoptic convective regimes and ENSO, both at the interannual timescale. The recurrent regimes of the Angola Low are identified over the 1980-2015 period by applying a cluster analysis to daily 700-hPa wind vorticity anomalies over the Angola sector from November to March. The exact number and morphological properties of vorticity regimes vary significantly among the reanalyses, in particular when using the lowest spatial resolution reanalysis (i.e., NCEP2) that leads to detect less diversity, smoothest patterns and weakest intensity across the recurrent regimes. Despite such uncertainties, the regimes describing active Angola Low are quite robust among the reanalyses. Three preferential locations (locked over eastern Angola, shifted few degrees eastward or south-westward), which significantly impact on the rainfall spatial distribution over tropical and subtropical southern Africa, are identified. Independently from its location, Angola Low favours moisture advection from the southwest Indian Ocean and reduces moisture export towards the southeast Atlantic, hence contributing to increase moisture convergence over the subcontinent. Lead/lag correlations with synoptic convective regimes suggest that Angola Low may be a local precursor of tropical

Applying an economical scale-aware PDF-based turbulence closure model in NOAA NCEP GCMs.

Science.gov (United States)

Belochitski, A.; Krueger, S. K.; Moorthi, S.; Bogenschutz, P.; Cheng, A.

2017-12-01

A novel unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence, cloudiness, and shallow convection is being implemented into the NOAA NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) general circulation model. The approach, known as Simplified High Order Closure (SHOC), is based on predicting a joint PDF of SGS thermodynamic variables and vertical velocity, and using it to diagnose turbulent diffusion coefficients, SGS fluxes, condensation, and cloudiness. Unlike other similar methods, comparatively few new prognostic variables needs to be introduced, making the technique computationally efficient. In the base version of SHOC it is SGS turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and in the developmental version — SGS TKE, and variances of total water and moist static energy (MSE). SHOC is now incorporated into a version of GFS that will become a part of the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System based around NOAA GFDL's FV3 dynamical core, NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) coupled modeling infrastructure software, and a set novel physical parameterizations. Turbulent diffusion coefficients computed by SHOC are now used in place of those produced by the boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection parameterizations. Large scale microphysics scheme is no longer used to calculate cloud fraction or the large-scale condensation/deposition. Instead, SHOC provides these quantities. Radiative transfer parameterization uses cloudiness computed by SHOC. An outstanding problem with implementation of SHOC in the NCEP global models is excessively large high level tropical cloudiness. Comparison of the moments of the SGS PDF diagnosed by SHOC to the moments calculated in a GigaLES simulation of tropical deep convection case (GATE), shows that SHOC diagnoses too narrow PDF distributions of total cloud water and MSE in the areas of deep convective detrainment. A subsequent sensitivity study of SHOC's diagnosed cloud fraction (CF) to higher order input moments of the SGS PDF

National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (Reanalysis-2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis is a follow-on project to the "50-year" (1948-present) NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project....

Global Forecast System (GFS) [0.5 Deg.

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and...

Clouds across the Arctic: A spatial perspective uniting surface observations of downwelling infrared radiation, reanalyses and education

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Christopher J.

The polar regions serve an important role in the Earth's energy balance by acting as a heat sink for the global climate system. In the Arctic, a complex distribution of continental and oceanic features support large spatial variability in environmental parameters important for climate. Additionally, feedbacks that are unique to the cryosphere cause the region to be very sensitive to climate perturbations. Environmental changes are being observed, including increasing temperatures, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, melting permafrost, changing atmospheric circulation patterns and changing cloud properties, which may be signaling a shift in climate. Despite these changes, the Arctic remains an understudied region, including with respect to the atmosphere and clouds. A better understanding of cloud properties and their geographical variability is needed to better understand observed changes and to forecast the future state of the system, to support adaptation and mitigation strategies, and understand how Arctic change impacts other regions of the globe. Surface-based observations of the atmosphere are critical measurements in this effort because they are high quality and have high temporal resolution, but there are few atmospheric observatories in the Arctic and the period of record is short. Reanalyses combine assimilated observations with models to fill in spatial and temporal data gaps, and also provide additional model-derived parameters. Reanalyses are spatially comprehensive, but are limited by large uncertainties and biases, in particular with respect to derived parameters. Infrared radiation is a large component of the surface energy budget. Infrared emission from clouds is closely tied to cloud properties, so measurements of the infrared spectrum can be used to retrieve information about clouds and can also be used to investigate the influence clouds have on the surface radiation balance. In this dissertation, spectral infrared radiances and other

Evaluation of energy fluxes in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2)

Science.gov (United States)

Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh Kumar

2018-01-01

The energy fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) from a long free run by the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2) are validated against several observation and reanalysis datasets. This study focuses on the annual mean energy fluxes and tries to link it with the systematic cold biases in the 2 m air temperature, particularly over the land regions. The imbalance in the long term mean global averaged energy fluxes are also evaluated. The global averaged imbalance at the surface and at the TOA is found to be 0.37 and 6.43 Wm-2, respectively. It is shown that CFSv2 overestimates the land surface albedo, particularly over the snow region, which in turn contributes to the cold biases in 2 m air temperature. On the other hand, surface albedo is highly underestimated over the coastal region around Antarctica and that may have contributed to the warm bias over that oceanic region. This study highlights the need for improvements in the parameterization of snow/sea-ice albedo scheme for a realistic simulation of surface temperature and that may have implications on the global energy imbalance in the model.

An assessment of TropFlux and NCEP air-sea fluxes on ROMS simulations over the Bay of Bengal region

Science.gov (United States)

Dey, Dipanjan; Sil, Sourav; Jana, Sudip; Pramanik, Saikat; Pandey, P. C.

2017-12-01

This study presents an assessment of the TropFlux and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis air-sea fluxes in simulating the surface and subsurface oceanic parameters over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during 2002-2014 using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). The assessment has been made by comparing the simulated fields with in-situ and satellite observations. The simulated surface and subsurface temperatures in the TropFlux forced experiment (TropFlux-E) show better agreement with the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis (RAMA) and Argo observations than the NCEP forced experiment (NCEP-E). The BoB domain averaged sea surface temperature (SST) simulated in the NCEP-E is consistently cooler than the satellite SST, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.79 °C. Moreover, NCEP-E shows a limitation in simulating the observed seasonal cycle of the SST due to substantial underestimation of the pre-monsoon SST peak. These limitations are mostly due to the lower values of the NCEP net heat flux. The seasonal and interannual variations of SST in the TropFlux-E are better comparable to the observations with correlations and skills more than 0.80 and 0.90 respectively. However, SST is overestimated during summer monsoon periods mainly due to higher net heat flux. The superiority of TropFlux forcing over the NCEP reanalysis can also be seen when simulating the interannual variabilities of the magnitude and vertical extent of Wyrtki jets at two equatorial RAMA buoy locations. The jet is weaker in the NCEP-E relative to the TropFlux-E and observations. The simulated sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) from both the experiments are able to capture the regions of positive and negative SSHA with respect to satellite-derived altimeter data with better performance in the TropFlux-E. The speed of the westward propagating Rossby wave along 18°N in the TropFlux-E is found to be about 4.7 cm/s, which is close to

Application of the system of assimilation of climatic data (CDAS) of the Project NCEP/NCAR - Reanalysis Dates Set For climatological and synoptic ends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

2001-01-01

In response to an increasing demand of meteorological information on a synoptic scale and the need for a better and more precise knowledge of the different atmospheric fields on a local, regional and global scale, the program known as GRADS, developed by COLA in the US, has been implemented. to show graphically meteorological patterns at the surface and at different levels in the troposphere and lower stratosphere based on high-quality grid data prepared by NCEP/NCAR (NOAA)

Evaluating Observation Influence on Regional Water Budgets in Reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Mocko, David; Robertson, Franklin R.; daSilva, Arlindo M.

2014-01-01

The assimilation of observations in reanalyses incurs the potential for the physical terms of budgets to be balanced by a term relating the fit of the observations relative to a forecast first guess analysis. This may indicate a limitation in the physical processes of the background model, or perhaps inconsistencies in the observing system and its assimilation. In the MERRA reanalysis, an area of long term moisture flux divergence over land has been identified over the Central United States. Here, we evaluate the water vapor budget in this region, taking advantage of two unique features of the MERRA diagnostic output; 1) a closed water budget that includes the analysis increment and 2) a gridded diagnostic output data set of the assimilated observations and their innovations (e.g. forecast departures). In the Central United States, an anomaly occurs where the analysis adds water to the region, while precipitation decreases and moisture flux divergence increases. This is related more to a change in the observing system than to a deficiency in the model physical processes. MERRAs Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) data narrow the observations that influence this feature to the ATOVS and Aqua satellites during the 06Z and 18Z analysis cycles. Observing system experiments further narrow the instruments that affect the anomalous feature to AMSUA (mainly window channels) and AIRS. This effort also shows the complexities of the observing system, and the reactions of the regional water budgets in reanalyses to the assimilated observations.

Intra-Seasonal Monthly Oscillations in Stratospheric NCEP Data and Model Results

Science.gov (United States)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-01-01

Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements-and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996-2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.

An Intercomparison of Changes Associated with Earth's Lower Tropospheric Temperature Using Traditional and AMIP-Style Reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Marquardt-Collow, Allison B.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Cullather, Richard I.

2017-01-01

Reanalyses have become an integral tool for evaluating regional and global climate variations, and an important component of this is modifications to the energy budget. Reductions in Arctic Sea ice extent has induced an albedo feedback, causing the Arctic to warm more rapidly than anywhere else in the world, referred to as "Arctic Amplification." This has been demonstrated by observations and numerous reanalyses, including the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). However, the Arctic Amplification signal is non-existent in a ten member ensemble of the MERRA-2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (M2AMIP) simulations, using the same prescribed climate forcing, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ice. An evaluation of the temperature tendency within the lower troposphere due to radiation, moisture, and dynamics as well as the surface energy budget in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP will demonstrate that despite identical prescribed SSTs and sea ice in both versions, enhanced warming in the Arctic in MERRA-2 is in response to the analysis increment tendency due to temperature observations. Furthermore, the role of boundary conditions, model biases and changes in observing systems on the Arctic Amplification signal will be assessed. Literature on the topic of Arctic Amplification demonstrates that the enhanced warming begins in the mid-1990s. Anomalously warm Arctic SST in the early time period of MERRA-2 can mute the trend in Arctic lower troposphere temperature without the constraint of observations in M2AMIP. Additionally, MERRA-2 uses three distinct datasets of SST and sea ice concentration, which also plays a role.

South Atlantic meridional transports from NEMO-based simulations and reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Mignac, Davi; Ferreira, David; Haines, Keith

2018-02-01

The meridional heat transport (MHT) of the South Atlantic plays a key role in the global heat budget: it is the only equatorward basin-scale ocean heat transport and it sets the northward direction of the global cross-equatorial transport. Its strength and variability, however, are not well known. The South Atlantic transports are evaluated for four state-of-the-art global ocean reanalyses (ORAs) and two free-running models (FRMs) in the period 1997-2010. All products employ the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Oceans (NEMO) model, and the ORAs share very similar configurations. Very few previous works have looked at ocean circulation patterns in reanalysis products, but here we show that the ORA basin interior transports are consistently improved by the assimilated in situ and satellite observations relative to the FRMs, especially in the Argo period. The ORAs also exhibit systematically higher meridional transports than the FRMs, which is in closer agreement with observational estimates at 35 and 11° S. However, the data assimilation impact on the meridional transports still greatly varies among the ORAs, leading to differences up to ˜ 8 Sv and 0.4 PW in the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the MHTs, respectively. We narrow this down to large inter-product discrepancies in the western boundary currents (WBCs) at both upper and deep levels explaining up to ˜ 85 % of the inter-product differences in MHT. We show that meridional velocity differences, rather than temperature differences, in the WBCs drive ˜ 83 % of this MHT spread. These findings show that the present ocean observation network and data assimilation schemes can be used to consistently constrain the South Atlantic interior circulation but not the overturning component, which is dominated by the narrow western boundary currents. This will likely limit the effectiveness of ORA products for climate or decadal prediction studies.

Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, A.

2015-12-01

Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.

Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961-2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sotillo, M.G. [Area de Medio Fisico, Puertos del Estado, Madrid (Spain); Martin, M.L. [Universidad de Valladolid, Dpto. Matematica Aplicada, Escuela Universitaria de Informatica, Campus de Segovia, Segovia (Spain); Valero, F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Facultad de CC Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Luna, M.Y. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain)

2006-11-15

A 44-year (1958-2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data. (orig.)

A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.

The modified NCEP ATP III criteria maybe better than the IDF criteria in diagnosing Metabolic Syndrome among Malays in Kuala Lumpur

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Bulgiba Awang

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Metabolic Syndrome is associated with increased risk for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. However, different diagnostic criteria have been recommended by different expert groups. In Malaysia, there is a lack of research comparing these different diagnostic criteria. Therefore, it is our aim to study the concordance between the IDF and the modified NCEP ATP III definitions of Metabolic Syndrome among a Malay cohort in Kuala Lumpur; and to demonstrate if all participants have the same cardiometabolic risks. Methods This was an analytical cross sectional study. Ethics approval was obtained and informed consent was given by all participants. Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and lipid profile were taken following standard protocols. Results Metabolic Syndrome was diagnosed in 41.4% and 38.2% participants using the modified NCEP and IDF criteria respectively. Among those diagnosed with Metabolic Syndrome by modified NCEP, 7.6% were missed by the IDF criteria. Participants diagnosed by the modified NCEP criteria had lower BMI and waist circumference but had higher cardiometabolic risks than those diagnosed with both criteria. Their blood pressure, glucose, total cholesterol and triglyceride were more adverse than the IDF group. This demonstrated that central obesity may not be a prerequisite for the development of increased cardiometabolic risks within this Malay cohort. Conclusion Metabolic syndrome is common in this Malay cohort regardless of the criterion used. The modified NCEP ATP III criteria may be more suitable in diagnosis of metabolic syndrome for this Malay cohort.

Advancing Global & Regional Reanalyses

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Buizza, R.; Poli, P.; Rixen, M.; Alonso-Balmaseda, M.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Brönnimann, S.; Compo, G. P.; Dee, D. P.; Desiato, F.; Doutriaux-Boucher, M.; Fujiwara, M.; Kaiser-Weiss, A. K.; Kobayashi, S.; Liu, Z.; Masina, S.; Mathieu, P. P.; Rayner, N.; Richter, C.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Simmons, A. J.; Thépaut, J.-N.; Auger, J. D.; Bechtold, M.; Berntell, E.; Dong, B.; Kozubek, Michal; Sharif, K.; Thomas, Ch.; Schimanke, S.; Storto, A.; Tuma, M.; Välisuo, I.; Vaselali, A.

In Press (2018) ISSN 0003-0007 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 7.281, year: 2016 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0312.1

Revealing climate modes in steric sea levels: lessons learned from satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses

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Pfeffer, J.; Tregoning, P.; Purcell, A. P.

2017-12-01

Due to increased greenhouse gases emissions, the oceans are accumulating heat. In response to the ocean circulation and atmospheric forcing, the heat is irregularly redistributed within the oceans, causing sea level to rise at variable rates in space and time. These rates of steric expansion are extremely difficult to assess because of the sparsity of in-situ hydrographic observations available within the course of the 20th century. We compare here three methods to reconstruct the steric sea levels over the past 13, 25 and 58 years based on satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses. The interannual to decadal variability of each dataset is explored with a model merging six climate indices representative of the natural variability of the ocean and climate system. Consistent regional patterns are identified for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in all datasets at all timescales. Despite the short time coverage (13 years), the combination of satellite geodetic data (altimetry and GRACE) also reveals significant steric responses to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Indian Dipole (IOD) and Indian ocean basinwide (IOBM) mode. The richer information content in the ocean reanalyses allows us to recover the regional fingerprints of the PDO, ENSO, NPGO, IOD and IOBM, but also of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) acting over longer time scales (40 to 60 years). Therefore, ocean reanalyses, coupled with climate mode analyses, constitute innovative and promising tools to investigate the mechanisms triggering the variability of sea level rise over the past decades.

Uncertainty in the global oceanic CO2 uptake induced by wind forcing: quantification and spatial analysis

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A. Roobaert

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The calculation of the air–water CO2 exchange (FCO2 in the ocean not only depends on the gradient in CO2 partial pressure at the air–water interface but also on the parameterization of the gas exchange transfer velocity (k and the choice of wind product. Here, we present regional and global-scale quantifications of the uncertainty in FCO2 induced by several widely used k formulations and four wind speed data products (CCMP, ERA, NCEP1 and NCEP2. The analysis is performed at a 1°  ×  1° resolution using the sea surface pCO2 climatology generated by Landschützer et al. (2015a for the 1991–2011 period, while the regional assessment relies on the segmentation proposed by the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP project. First, we use k formulations derived from the global 14C inventory relying on a quadratic relationship between k and wind speed (k = c ⋅ U102; Sweeney et al., 2007; Takahashi et al., 2009; Wanninkhof, 2014, where c is a calibration coefficient and U10 is the wind speed measured 10 m above the surface. Our results show that the range of global FCO2, calculated with these k relationships, diverge by 12 % when using CCMP, ERA or NCEP1. Due to differences in the regional wind patterns, regional discrepancies in FCO2 are more pronounced than global. These global and regional differences significantly increase when using NCEP2 or other k formulations which include earlier relationships (i.e., Wanninkhof, 1992; Wanninkhof et al., 2009 as well as numerous local and regional parameterizations derived experimentally. To minimize uncertainties associated with the choice of wind product, it is possible to recalculate the coefficient c globally (hereafter called c∗ for a given wind product and its spatio-temporal resolution, in order to match the last evaluation of the global k value. We thus performed these recalculations for each wind product at the resolution and time period of our study

Uncertainty in the global oceanic CO2 uptake induced by wind forcing: quantification and spatial analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Roobaert, Alizée; Laruelle, Goulven G.; Landschützer, Peter; Regnier, Pierre

2018-03-01

The calculation of the air-water CO2 exchange (FCO2) in the ocean not only depends on the gradient in CO2 partial pressure at the air-water interface but also on the parameterization of the gas exchange transfer velocity (k) and the choice of wind product. Here, we present regional and global-scale quantifications of the uncertainty in FCO2 induced by several widely used k formulations and four wind speed data products (CCMP, ERA, NCEP1 and NCEP2). The analysis is performed at a 1° × 1° resolution using the sea surface pCO2 climatology generated by Landschützer et al. (2015a) for the 1991-2011 period, while the regional assessment relies on the segmentation proposed by the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project. First, we use k formulations derived from the global 14C inventory relying on a quadratic relationship between k and wind speed (k = c ṡ U102; Sweeney et al., 2007; Takahashi et al., 2009; Wanninkhof, 2014), where c is a calibration coefficient and U10 is the wind speed measured 10 m above the surface. Our results show that the range of global FCO2, calculated with these k relationships, diverge by 12 % when using CCMP, ERA or NCEP1. Due to differences in the regional wind patterns, regional discrepancies in FCO2 are more pronounced than global. These global and regional differences significantly increase when using NCEP2 or other k formulations which include earlier relationships (i.e., Wanninkhof, 1992; Wanninkhof et al., 2009) as well as numerous local and regional parameterizations derived experimentally. To minimize uncertainties associated with the choice of wind product, it is possible to recalculate the coefficient c globally (hereafter called c∗) for a given wind product and its spatio-temporal resolution, in order to match the last evaluation of the global k value. We thus performed these recalculations for each wind product at the resolution and time period of our study but the resulting global FCO2 estimates

Reanalyses of the radiation belt electron phase space density using nearly equatorial CRRES and polar-orbiting Akebono satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Binbin; Shprits, Yuri; Nagai, Tsugunobu; Thorne, Richard; Chen, Yue; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Kim, Hee-jeong

2009-05-01

Data assimilation techniques provide algorithms that allow for blending of incomplete and inaccurate data with physics-based dynamic models to reconstruct the electron phase space density (PSD) in the radiation belts. In this study, we perform reanalyses of the radial PSD profile using two independent data sources from the nearly equatorial CRRES Medium Electron A (MEA) observations and the polar-orbiting Akebono Radiation Monitor (RDM) measurements for a 50-day period from 18 August to 6 October 1990. We utilize the University of California, Los Angeles, One-Dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (UCLA 1-D VERB) code and a Kalman filtering approach. Comparison of the reanalyses obtained independently using the CRRES MEA and Akebono RDM measurements shows that the dynamics of the PSD can be accurately reconstructed using Kalman filtering even when available data are sparse, inaccurate, and contaminated by random errors. The reanalyses exhibit similarities in the locations and magnitudes of peaks in radial profiles of PSD and the rate and radial extent of the dropouts during storms. This study shows that when unidirectional data are not available, pitch angle averaged flux measurements can be used to infer the long-term behavior (climatology) of the radiation belts. The methodology of obtaining PSD from pitch angle averaged and unidirectional fluxes using the Tsyganenko and Stern (1996) magnetic field model is described in detail.

An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models, COADS and the NCEP reanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frankignoul, C.; Kestenare, E. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Botzet, M. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Carril, A.F. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Drange, H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Pardaens, A. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office (United Kingdom); Terray, L.; Sutton, R. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

2004-04-01

The surface heat flux feedback is estimated in the Atlantic and the extra-tropical Indo-Pacific, using monthly heat flux and sea surface temperature anomaly data from control simulations with five global climate models, and it is compared to estimates derived from COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. In all data sets, the heat flux feedback is negative nearly everywhere and damps the sea surface temperature anomalies. At extra-tropical latitudes, it is strongly dominated by the turbulent fluxes. The radiative feedback can be positive or negative, depending on location and season, but it remains small, except in some models in the tropical Atlantic. The negative heat flux feedback is strong in the mid-latitude storm tracks, exceeding 40 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} at place, but in the Northern Hemisphere it is substantially underestimated in several models. The negative feedback weakens at high latitudes, although the models do not reproduce the weak positive feedback found in NCEP in the northern North Atlantic. The main differences are found in the tropical Atlantic where the heat flux feedback is weakly negative in some models, as in the observations, and strongly negative in others where it can exceed 30 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} at large scales, in part because of a strong contribution of the radiative fluxes, in particular during spring. A comparison between models with similar atmospheric or oceanic components suggests that the atmospheric model is primarily responsible for the heat flux feedback differences at extra-tropical latitudes. In the tropical Atlantic, the ocean behavior plays an equal role. The differences in heat flux feedback in the tropical Atlantic are reflected in the sea surface temperature anomaly persistence, which is too small in models where the heat flux damping is large. A good representation of the heat flux feedback is thus required to simulate climate variability realistically. (orig.)

Effects of the Earth’ s triaxiality on the polar motion excitations

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Chen Wei

2012-05-01

Full Text Available his study aims to evaluate the significance of the Earth’s triaxiality to the polar motion theory. First of all, we compare the polar motion theories for both the triaxial and rotationally-symmetric Earth models, which is established on the basis of the EGM2008 global gravity model and the MHB2000 Earth model. Then, we use the atmospheric and oceanic data (the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and the ECCO assimulation products to quantify the triaxiality effect on polar motion excitations. Numerical results imply that triaxiality only cause a small correction (about 0. 1–0.2 mas to the geophysical excitations for the rotationally-symmetric case. The triaxiality correction is much smaller than the errors in the atmospheric and oceanic data, and thus can be neglected for recent studies on polar motion excitations.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation in NCEP Coupled Model Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wanqiu Wang Kyong-Hwan Seo

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This study documents a detailed analysis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP using the Global Forecast System (GFS model version 2003 coupled with the Climate Forecast System model (CFS consisting of the 2003 version of GFS and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL Modular Ocean Model V.3 (MOM3. The analyses are based upon a 21-year simulation of AMIP-type with GFS and CMIP-type with CFS. It is found that air-sea coupling in CFS is shown to improve the coherence between convection and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO. The too fast propagation of convection from the Indian Ocean to the maritime continents and the western Pacific in GFS is improved (slowed down in CFS. Both GFS and CFS produce too strong intraseasonal convective heating and circulation anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific; further, the air-sea coupling in CFS enhances this unrealistic feature. The simulated mean slow phase speed of east ward propagating low-wavenumber components shown in the wavenumber-frequency spectra is due to the slow propagation in the central-eastern Pacific in both GFS and CFS. Errors in model climatology may have some effect upon the simulated MJO and two possible influences are: (i CFS fails to simulate the westerlies over maritime continents and western Pacific areas, resulting in an unrealistic representation of surface latent heat flux associated with the MJO; and (ii vertical easterly wind shear from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in CFS is much weaker than that in the observation and in GFS, which may adversely affect the eastward propagation of the simulated MJO.

Global-scale evaluation of 22 precipitation datasets using gauge observations and hydrological modeling

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H. E. Beck

2017-12-01

Full Text Available We undertook a comprehensive evaluation of 22 gridded (quasi-global (sub-daily precipitation (P datasets for the period 2000–2016. Thirteen non-gauge-corrected P datasets were evaluated using daily P gauge observations from 76 086 gauges worldwide. Another nine gauge-corrected datasets were evaluated using hydrological modeling, by calibrating the HBV conceptual model against streamflow records for each of 9053 small to medium-sized ( <  50 000 km2 catchments worldwide, and comparing the resulting performance. Marked differences in spatio-temporal patterns and accuracy were found among the datasets. Among the uncorrected P datasets, the satellite- and reanalysis-based MSWEP-ng V1.2 and V2.0 datasets generally showed the best temporal correlations with the gauge observations, followed by the reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and NCEP-CFSR and the satellite- and reanalysis-based CHIRP V2.0 dataset, the estimates based primarily on passive microwave remote sensing of rainfall (CMORPH V1.0, GSMaP V5/6, and TMPA 3B42RT V7 or near-surface soil moisture (SM2RAIN-ASCAT, and finally, estimates based primarily on thermal infrared imagery (GridSat V1.0, PERSIANN, and PERSIANN-CCS. Two of the three reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-55 unexpectedly obtained lower trend errors than the satellite datasets. Among the corrected P datasets, the ones directly incorporating daily gauge data (CPC Unified, and MSWEP V1.2 and V2.0 generally provided the best calibration scores, although the good performance of the fully gauge-based CPC Unified is unlikely to translate to sparsely or ungauged regions. Next best results were obtained with P estimates directly incorporating temporally coarser gauge data (CHIRPS V2.0, GPCP-1DD V1.2, TMPA 3B42 V7, and WFDEI-CRU, which in turn outperformed the one indirectly incorporating gauge data through another multi-source dataset (PERSIANN-CDR V1R1. Our results highlight large differences in estimation accuracy

Regionally Varying Assessments of Tropical Width in Reanalyses and CMIP5 Models Using a Tropopause Break Metric

Science.gov (United States)

Homeyer, C. R.; Martin, E. R.; McKinzie, R.; McCarthy, K.

2017-12-01

The boundary between the tropics and the extratropics in each hemisphere is not fixed in space or time. Variations in the north-south width of the tropics are directly connected to changes in weather and climate. These fluctuations have been shown to impact tropical biodiversity, the spread of vector borne diseases, atmospheric chemistry, and additional natural and human sectors. However, there is no unanimous definition of the tropical boundary. This has led to a disagreement on the magnitude of changes in the tropical width during the past 30 years and a lack of understanding concerning its spatial and temporal variability. This study identifies the variability of the tropical width in modern reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, CFSR, MERRA, and MERRA-2) and CMIP5 models (all models with available 6-hourly output) using a novel analysis metric: the tropopause "break" (i.e., the sharp discontinuity in tropopause altitude between the tropics and extratropics). Similarities and differences are found amongst the reanalyses, with some degree of tropical narrowing in the Eastern Pacific between 1981 and 2010. Historical simulations from the CMIP5 models agree well with the tropopause break latitudes depicted by the reanalyses, with considerable differences in estimated trends over the relatively short overlapping time period of the datasets. For future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario from 2006 to 2100, CMIP5 models generally show statistically significant increases in tropical width (at the 99% level) throughout each hemisphere, with regional variability of 1-2 degrees in poleward latitude trends. The impact of CMIP5 model grid resolution and other factors on the results of the tropopause break analysis will be discussed.

Large differences in the diabatic heat budget of the tropical UTLS in reanalyses

OpenAIRE

J. S. Wright; S. Fueglistaler

2013-01-01

We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) as simulated by five reanalysis models: MERRA, ERA-Interim, CFSR, JRA-25/JCDAS, and NCEP/NCAR. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including la...

Estimation of Volume and Freshwater Flux from the Arctic Ocean using SMAP and NCEP CFSv2

Science.gov (United States)

Bulusu, S.

2017-12-01

Spatial and temporal monitoring of sea surface salinity (SSS) plays an important role globally and especially over the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic ice melt has led to an influx of freshwater into the Arctic environment, a process that can be observed in SSS. The recently launched NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is primarily designed for the global monitoring of soil moisture using L- band (1.4GHz) frequency. SMAP also has the capability of measuring SSS and can thus extend the NASA's Aquarius salinity mission (ended June 7, 2015), salinity data record with improved temporal/spatial sampling. In this research an attempt is made to investigate the retrievability of SSS over the Arctic from SMAP satellite. The objectives of this study are to verify the use of SMAP sea surface salinity (and freshwater) variability in the Arctic Ocean and the extent to estimate freshwater, salt and volume flux from the Arctic Ocean. Along with SMAP data we will use NASA's Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellites (ICESat and ICESat-2), and ESA's CryoSat-2, and NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites data to estimate ice melt in the Arctic. The preliminary results from SMAP compared well with the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) salinity data in this region capturing patterns fairly well over the Arctic.

A simple climatology of westerly jet streams in global reanalysis datasets part 1: mid-latitude upper tropospheric jets

Science.gov (United States)

Rikus, Lawrie

2018-04-01

A simple closed contour object identification scheme has been applied to the zonal mean monthly mean zonal wind fields from nine global reanalysis data sets for 31 years of the satellite era (1979-2009) to identify objects corresponding to westerly jet streams. The results cluster naturally into six individual jet streams but only the mid-latitude upper-tropospheric jets are considered here. The time series of the jet properties from all reanalyses are decomposed into seasonal means and anomalies, and correlations between variables are evaluated, with the aim of identifying robust features which can form the basis of evaluation metrics for climate model simulations of the twentieth century. There is substantial agreement between all the reanalyses for all jet properties although there are some systematic differences with particular data sets. Some of the results from the object identification applied to the reanalyses are used in a simple example of a model evaluation score for the zonal mean jet seasonal cycle.

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Schemm, J. E.; Long, L.; Baxter, S.

2013-12-01

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long and Stephen Baxter Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Predictability of intraseasonal tropical storm (TS) activities is assessed using the 1999-2010 CFSv2 hindcast suite. Weekly TS activities in the CFSv2 45-day forecasts were determined using the TS detection and tracking method devised by Carmago and Zebiak (2002). The forecast periods are divided into weekly intervals for Week 1 through Week 6, and also the 30-day mean. The TS activities in those intervals are compared to the observed activities based on the NHC HURDAT and JTWC Best Track datasets. The CFSv2 45-day hindcast suite is made of forecast runs initialized at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z every day during the 1999 - 2010 period. For predictability evaluation, forecast TS activities are analyzed based on 20-member ensemble forecasts comprised of 45-day runs made during the most recent 5 days prior to the verification period. The forecast TS activities are evaluated in terms of the number of storms, genesis locations and storm tracks during the weekly periods. The CFSv2 forecasts are shown to have a fair level of skill in predicting the number of storms over the Atlantic Basin with the temporal correlation scores ranging from 0.73 for Week 1 forecasts to 0.63 for Week 6, and the average RMS errors ranging from 0.86 to 1.07 during the 1999-2010 hurricane season. Also, the forecast track density distribution and false alarm statistics are compiled using the hindcast analyses. In real-time applications of the intraseasonal TS activity forecasts, the climatological TS forecast statistics will be used to make the model bias corrections in terms of the storm counts, track distribution and removal of false alarms. An operational implementation of the weekly TS activity prediction is planned for early 2014 to provide an objective input for the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

Global Hawk dropsonde observations of the Arctic atmosphere obtained during the Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR field campaign

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Intrieri

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In February and March of 2011, the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS was deployed over the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic during the Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR field campaign. The WISPAR science missions were designed to (1 mprove our understanding of Pacific weather systems and the polar atmosphere; (2 evaluate operational use of unmanned aircraft for investigating these atmospheric events; and (3 demonstrate operational and research applications of a UAS dropsonde system at high latitudes. Dropsondes deployed from the Global Hawk successfully obtained high-resolution profiles of temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind information between the stratosphere and surface. The 35 m wingspan Global Hawk, which can soar for ~ 31 h at altitudes up to ~ 20 km, was remotely operated from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base (AFB in California. During the 25 h polar flight on 9–10 March 2011, the Global Hawk released 35 sondes between the North Slope of Alaska and 85° N latitude, marking the first UAS Arctic dropsonde mission of its kind. The polar flight transected an unusually cold polar vortex, notable for an associated record-level Arctic ozone loss, and documented polar boundary layer variations over a sizable ocean–ice lead feature. Comparison of dropsonde observations with atmospheric reanalyses reveal that, for this day, large-scale structures such as the polar vortex and air masses are captured by the reanalyses, while smaller-scale features, including low-level jets and inversion depths, are mischaracterized. The successful Arctic dropsonde deployment demonstrates the capability of the Global Hawk to conduct operations in harsh, remote regions. The limited comparison with other measurements and reanalyses highlights the potential value of Arctic atmospheric dropsonde observations where routine in situ measurements are practically nonexistent.

Scaling between reanalyses and high-resolution land-surface modelling in mountainous areas - enabling better application and testing of reanalyses in heterogeneous environments

Science.gov (United States)

Gruber, S.; Fiddes, J.

2013-12-01

In mountainous topography, the difference in scale between atmospheric reanalyses (typically tens of kilometres) and relevant processes and phenomena near the Earth surface, such as permafrost or snow cover (meters to tens of meters) is most obvious. This contrast of scales is one of the major obstacles to using reanalysis data for the simulation of surface phenomena and to confronting reanalyses with independent observation. At the example of modelling permafrost in mountain areas (but simple to generalise to other phenomena and heterogeneous environments), we present and test methods against measurements for (A) scaling atmospheric data from the reanalysis to the ground level and (B) smart sampling of the heterogeneous landscape in order to set up a lumped model simulation that represents the high-resolution land surface. TopoSCALE (Part A, see http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-3381-2013) is a scheme, which scales coarse-grid climate fields to fine-grid topography using pressure level data. In addition, it applies necessary topographic corrections e.g. those variables required for computation of radiation fields. This provides the necessary driving fields to the LSM. Tested against independent ground data, this scheme has been shown to improve the scaling and distribution of meteorological parameters in complex terrain, as compared to conventional methods, e.g. lapse rate based approaches. TopoSUB (Part B, see http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1245-2012) is a surface pre-processor designed to sample a fine-grid domain (defined by a digital elevation model) along important topographical (or other) dimensions through a clustering scheme. This allows constructing a lumped model representing the main sources of fine-grid variability and applying a 1D LSM efficiently over large areas. Results can processed to derive (i) summary statistics at coarse-scale re-analysis grid resolution, (ii) high-resolution data fields spatialized to e.g., the fine-scale digital elevation

AMOC variations in 1979-2008 simulated by NCEP operational ocean data assimilation system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Boyin [Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); National Climate Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States); Xue, Yan; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Behringer, David W. [Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-02-15

Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between 1979 and 2008 are documented using the operational ocean analysis, the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS), at the National Centers for Climate Prediction (NCEP). The maximum AMOC at 40 N is about 16 Sv in average with peak-to-peak variability of 3-4 Sv. The AMOC variations are dominated by an upward trend from 1980 to 1995, and a downward trend from 1995 to 2008. The maximum AMOC at 26.5 N is slightly weaker than hydrographic estimates and observations from mooring array. The dominant variability of the AMOC in 20 -65 N (the first EOF, 51% variance) is highly correlated with that in the subsurface temperature (the first EOF, 33% variance), and therefore, with density (the first EOF, 25% variance) in the North Atlantic, and is consistent with the observational estimates based on the World Ocean Database 2005. The dominant variabilities of AMOC and subsurface temperature are also analyzed in the context of possible links with the net surface heat flux, deep convection, western boundary current, and subpolar gyre. Variation in the net surface heat flux is further linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index which is found to lead AMOC variations by about 5 years. Our results indicate that AMOC variations can be documented based on an ocean analysis system such as GODAS. (orig.)

NCEP SST Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Organization Search Go Search Polar Go MMAB SST Analysis Main page About MMAB Our Mission Our Personnel EMC Branches Global Climate & Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Contact EMC (RTG_SST_HR) analysis For a regional map, click the desired area in the global SST analysis and anomaly maps

An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xue, Yan; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Boyin; Wen, Caihong [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle Information System, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Behringer, David; Nadiga, Sudhir [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2011-12-15

At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979-2009, referred to as the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 h coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5 x 0.5 ) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis. The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/1999. The sea surface height and top 300 m heat content (HC300) of

Solar cycle signatures in the NCEP equatorial annual oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-08-01

Our analysis of temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (Re-1), supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), shows that the hemispherically symmetric 12-month equatorial annual oscillation (EAO) contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that, below 20 km, the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the solar cycle (SC). The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm flux solar index. Above 20 km, the spectra also contain modulation signatures with periods around 11 years, but the filtered variations are too irregular to suggest that systematic SC forcing is the principal agent.

Solar cycle signatures in the NCEP equatorial annual oscillation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. G. Mayr

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Our analysis of temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006 from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR reanalysis (Re-1, supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, shows that the hemispherically symmetric 12-month equatorial annual oscillation (EAO contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that, below 20 km, the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the solar cycle (SC. The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm flux solar index. Above 20 km, the spectra also contain modulation signatures with periods around 11 years, but the filtered variations are too irregular to suggest that systematic SC forcing is the principal agent.

¿Son aplicables las funciones SCORE y NCEP para el cálculo del riesgo cardiovascular en prevención primaria en la población argentina?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia F. Benozzi

2010-01-01

Full Text Available RESUMENIntroducciónLa estimación del riesgo cardiovascular en prevención primaria mediante ecuaciones elaboradaspara tal fin permite optimizar la utilización de recursos disponibles en salud pública.ObjetivosEvaluar el riesgo cardiovascular mediante la aplicación de las funciones SCORE y NCEP yanalizar la concordancia entre ambas tablas en una población argentina.Material y métodosSe obtuvieron datos clínicos y bioquímicos de 234 personas adultas, de ambos sexos, queconcurrieron al Servicio de Medicina Preventiva del Hospital Municipal de Bahía Blanca. Sedefinió el síndrome metabólico según criterios de la AHA y se determinó riesgo cardiovascularbajo según NCEP III < 20% y según SCORE < 5%.ResultadosLas funciones SCORE y NCEP clasificaron con una precisión del 93,16% a los individuoscon riesgo cardiovascular bajo y la concordancia fue moderada (kappa: 0,452.ConclusiónLa aplicación de las tablas SCORE y NCEP en prevención primaria puede ser una herramientaútil y costo-eficiente en la práctica clínica diaria.REV ARGENT CARDIOL 2010;78:346-349.

C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

OpenAIRE

A. Storto; S. Masina

2016-01-01

Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysi...

El príncep, Niccolò Machiavelli: elogi del passat, crítica del present, projecte del futur

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Àngels B. Miró

2002-04-01

Full Text Available El príncep és una obra fonamental dins la història de la filosofia política. Però no podem entendre l'obra cabdal de Maquiavel sense detenir-nos en la trajectòria personal i literària de l'autor i en l'entorn en què va viure.

Evaluation of the hydrological cycle of MATCH driven by NCEP reanalysis data: comparison with GOME water vapor measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Lang

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This study examines two key parameters of the hydrological cycle, water vapor (WV and precipitation rates (PR, as modelled by the chemistry transport model MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalysis data (NRA. For model output evaluation we primarily employ WV total column data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME on ERS-2, which is the only instrument capable measuring WV on a global scale and over all surface types with a substantial data record from 1995 to the present. We find that MATCH and NRA WV and PR distributions are closely related, but that significant regional differences in both parameters exist in magnitude and distribution patterns when compared to the observations. We also find that WV residual patterns between model and observations show remarkable similarities to residuals observed in the PR when comparing MATCH and NRA output to observations comprised by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP. We conclude that deficiencies in model parameters shared by MATCH and NRA, like in the surface evaporation rates and regional transport patterns, are likely to lead to the observed differences. Monthly average regional differences between MATCH modelled WV columns and the observations can be as large as 2 cm, based on the analysis of three years. Differences in the global mean WV values are, however, below 0.1 cm. Regional differences in the PR between MATCH and GPCP can be above 0.5 cm per day and MATCH computes on average a higher PR than what has been observed. The lower water vapor content of MATCH is related to shorter model WV residence times by up to 1 day as compared to the observations. We find that MATCH has problems in modelling the WV content in regions of strong upward convection like, for example, along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, where it appears to be generally too dry as compared to the observations. We

The CM SAF SSM/I-based total column water vapour climate data record: methods and evaluation against re-analyses and satellite

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Schröder

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF aims at the provision and sound validation of well documented Climate Data Records (CDRs in sustained and operational environments. In this study, a total column water vapour path (WVPA climatology from CM SAF is presented and inter-compared to water vapour data records from various data sources. Based on homogenised brightness temperatures from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I, a climatology of WVPA has been generated within the Hamburg Ocean–Atmosphere Fluxes and Parameters from Satellite (HOAPS framework. Within a research and operation transition activity the HOAPS data and operation capabilities have been successfully transferred to the CM SAF where the complete HOAPS data and processing schemes are hosted in an operational environment. An objective analysis for interpolation, namely kriging, has been applied to the swath-based WVPA retrievals from the HOAPS data set. The resulting climatology consists of daily and monthly mean fields of WVPA over the global ice-free ocean. The temporal coverage ranges from July 1987 to August 2006. After a comparison to the precursor product the CM SAF SSM/I-based climatology has been comprehensively compared to different types of meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-ERA40, ERA INTERIM and operational analyses and from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA–JRA. This inter-comparison shows an overall good agreement between the climatology and the analyses, with daily absolute biases generally smaller than 2 kg m−2. The absolute value of the bias to JRA and ERA INTERIM is typically smaller than 0.5 kg m−2. For the period 1991–2006, the root mean square error (RMSE for both reanalyses is approximately 2 kg m−2. As SSM/I WVPA and radiances are assimilated into JMA and all ECMWF analyses and

NCEP Global Data Assimilation System GDAS

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Data is from NMC initialized analysis (2x/day). It consists of most variables interpolated to pressure surfaces from model (sigma) surfaces.

Variability of Iberian upwelling implied by ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José M. R. Alves

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The Regional Ocean Modeling System ocean model is used to simulate the decadal evolution of the regional waters in offshore Iberia in response to atmospheric fields given by ECMWF ERA-40 (1961–2001 and ERA-Interim (1989–2008 reanalyses. The simulated sea surface temperature (SST fields are verified against satellite AVHRR SST, and they are analysed to characterise the variability and trends of coastal upwelling in the region. Opposing trends in upwelling frequency are found at the northern limit, where upwelling has been decreasing in recent decades, and at its southern edge, where there is some evidence of increased upwelling. These results confirm previous observational studies and, more importantly, indicate that observed SST trends are not only due to changes in radiative or atmospheric heat fluxes alone but also due to changes in upwelling dynamics, suggesting that such a process may be relevant in climate change scenarios.

Trends and Variability of North Pacific Polar Lows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Chen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The 6-hourly 1948–2010 NCEP 1 reanalyses have been dynamically downscaled for the region of the North Pacific. With a detecting-and-tracking algorithm, the climatology of North Pacific Polar Lows has been constructed. This derived climatology is consistent with the limited observational evidence in terms of frequency and spatial distribution. The climatology exhibits strong year-to-year variability but weak decadal variability and a small positive trend. A canonical correlation analysis describes the conditioning of the formation of Polar Lows by characteristic seasonal mean flow regimes, which favor, or limit, cold air outbreaks and upper air troughs.

Tracking polar lows in CLM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zahn, M.; Storch, H. von [Inst. for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht (Germany); Meteorological Inst., Univ. of Hamburg (Germany)

2008-08-15

Polar lows are severe cyclones in sub-polar oceans sized beyond the resolved scale of existing global reanalysis products. We used the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses data to drive a regional climate model (CLM) in order to reproduce finer resolved atmospheric fields over the North Atlantic over a two year period. In these fields we detected polar lows by means of a detection algorithm based on a spatial digital bandpass filter. CLM was run in two different ways, the conventional way and with additionally prescribing the analysed large scale situation. The resulting temporal and spatial distributions of polar lows between the different simulations are compared. A reasonable seasonal cycle and spatial distribution was found for all simulations. A lower number of polar lows in the spectral nudged simulation indicates a closer vicinity to reality. Higher temporal and spatial variability between the conventional simulations suggest a more random generation of polar lows. Frequency distributions of track-lengths reveal shorter tracks when nudging is applied. Maximum wind speeds reveal only minor, insignificant differences between all runs and are higher in conventional mode. (orig.)

Data Assimilation with the Extended Cmam: Nudging to Re-Analyses of the Lower Atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Fomichev, V. I.; Beagley, S. R.; Shepherd, M. G.; Semeniuk, K.; Mclandress, C. W.; Scinocca, J.; McConnell, J. C.

2012-12-01

The extended CMAM is currently being run in a forecast mode allowing the use of the model to simulate specific events. The current analysis period covers 1990-2010. The model is forced using ERA-Interim re-analyses via a nudging technique for the troposphere/stratosphere in combination with the GCM evolution in the lower atmosphere. Thus a transient forced model state is created in the lower atmosphere. The upper atmosphere is allowed to evolve in response to the observed conditions occurring in the lower atmosphere and in response to other transient forcing's such as SSTs, solar flux, and CO2 and CFC boundary changes. This methodology allows specific events and observations to be more successfully compared with the model. The model results compared to TOMS and ACE observations show a good agreement.

An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions

Science.gov (United States)

Uotila, Petteri

2017-04-01

Ocean reanalysis (ORA) combines observations either statistically or with a hydrodynamical model, to reconstruct historical changes in the ocean. Global and regional ORA products are increasingly used in polar research, but their quality remains to be systematically assessed. To address this, the Polar ORA Intercomparison Project (PORA-IP) has been established following on from the ORA-IP project (Balmaseda et al. 2015, with other papers in a special issue of Climate Dynamics). The PORA-IP is constituted under the COST EOS initiative with plans to review reanalyses products in both the Arctic and Antarctic, and is endorsed by YOPP - the Year of Polar Prediction project. Currently, the PORA-IP team consists of 21 researchers from 15 institutes and universities. The ORA-IP products with polar physics, such as sea ice, have been updated where necessary and collected in a public database. In addition to model output, available observational polar climatologies are collected and used in the assessments. Due to the extensive variety of products, this database should become a valuable resource outside the PORA-IP community. For a comprehensive evaluation of the ten ORA products (CGLORSv5, ECDA3.1, GECCO2, Glorys2v4, GloSea5_GO5, MOVEG2i, ORAP5, SODA3.3.1, TOPAZ4 and UR025.4) in the Arctic and Southern Oceans several specific diagnostics are assessed. The PORA-IP diagnostics target the following topics: hydrography; heat, salinity and freshwater content; ocean transports and surface currents; mixed layer depth; sea-ice concentration and thickness; and snow thickness over sea ice. Based on these diagnostics, ORA product biases against observed data and their mutual spread are quantified, and possible reasons for discrepancies discussed. So far, we have identified product outliers and evaluated the multi-model mean. We have identified the importance of the atmospheric forcing, air-ocean coupling protocol and sea-ice data assimilation for the product performance. Moreover, we

BALTEX water and energy budgets in the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roads, J. [Experimental Climate Prediction Center, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Raschke, E. [Meteorologisches Institut der Universitaet Hamburg (Germany); Rocke, B. [Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht (Germany)

2002-07-01

Water and energy budgets from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Dept. of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis II (NCEPRII) are described for the Baltic Sea catchment and sea (BALTEX). Annually, NCEPRII shows 0.7 mm d{sup -1} of atmospheric moisture converged into the land region with a corresponding runoff of 0.7 mm d{sup -1} to the Baltic Sea, consistent with observations. However, precipitation is too low; evaporation is too large; runoff does not have an appropriate winter minimum and spring maximum; the assimilation and surface nudging are too large. Important hydroclimatic characteristics can still be discerned. During summer, atmospheric water vapor, precipitation, evaporation, and surface and atmospheric radiative heating increase and the atmospheric radiative cooling, dry static energy convergence decrease. There are large contrasts between the sea and land; during winter sensible heat is transferred from the sea to the atmosphere and sea evaporation and precipitation are largest during the fall and winter; somewhat opposite behavior occurs over land. (orig.)

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.; Toma, Violeta E. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2012-12-15

The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2009) from the ECMWF System 4 (SYS4) and NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal prediction systems. In both SYS4 and CFSv2, a cold bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) is found over the equatorial Pacific, North Atlantic, Indian Oceans and over a broad region in the Southern Hemisphere relative to observations. In contrast, a warm bias is found over the northern part of North Pacific and North Atlantic. Excessive precipitation is found along the ITCZ, equatorial Atlantic, equatorial Indian Ocean and the maritime continent. The southwest monsoon flow and the Somali Jet are stronger in SYS4, while the south-easterly trade winds over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Somali Jet and the subtropical northwestern Pacific high are weaker in CFSv2 relative to the reanalysis. In both systems, the prediction of SST, precipitation and low-level zonal wind has greatest skill in the tropical belt, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is dominant. Both modeling systems capture the global monsoon and the large-scale monsoon wind variability well, while at the same time performing poorly in simulating monsoon precipitation. The Asian monsoon prediction skill increases with the ENSO amplitude, although the models simulate an overly strong impact of ENSO on the monsoon. Overall, the monsoon predictive skill is lower than the ENSO skill in both modeling systems but both systems show greater predictive skill compared to persistence. (orig.)

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service: facilitating the prediction of air quality from global to local scales

Science.gov (United States)

Engelen, R. J.; Peuch, V. H.

2017-12-01

The European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) operationally provides daily forecasts of global atmospheric composition and regional air quality. The global forecasting system is using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which is used for numerical weather prediction and which has been extended with modules for atmospheric chemistry, aerosols and greenhouse gases. The regional forecasts are produced by an ensemble of seven operational European air quality models that take their boundary conditions from the global system and provide an ensemble median with ensemble spread as their main output. Both the global and regional forecasting systems are feeding their output into air quality models on a variety of scales in various parts of the world. We will introduce the CAMS service chain and provide illustrations of its use in downstream applications. Both the usage of the daily forecasts and the usage of global and regional reanalyses will be addressed.

Evaluation of cloud properties in the NOAA/NCEP global forecast system using multiple satellite products

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Hyelim [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Li, Zhanqing [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, GCESS, Beijing (China)

2012-12-15

Knowledge of cloud properties and their vertical structure is important for meteorological studies due to their impact on both the Earth's radiation budget and adiabatic heating within the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to evaluate bulk cloud properties and vertical distribution simulated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) using three global satellite products. Cloud variables evaluated include the occurrence and fraction of clouds in up to three layers, cloud optical depth, liquid water path, and ice water path. Cloud vertical structure data are retrieved from both active (CloudSat/CALIPSO) and passive sensors and are subsequently compared with GFS model results. In general, the GFS model captures the spatial patterns of hydrometeors reasonably well and follows the general features seen in satellite measurements, but large discrepancies exist in low-level cloud properties. More boundary layer clouds over the interior continents were generated by the GFS model whereas satellite retrievals showed more low-level clouds over oceans. Although the frequencies of global multi-layer clouds from observations are similar to those from the model, latitudinal variations show discrepancies in terms of structure and pattern. The modeled cloud optical depth over storm track region and subtropical region is less than that from the passive sensor and is overestimated for deep convective clouds. The distributions of ice water path (IWP) agree better with satellite observations than do liquid water path (LWP) distributions. Discrepancies in LWP/IWP distributions between observations and the model are attributed to differences in cloud water mixing ratio and mean relative humidity fields, which are major control variables determining the formation of clouds. (orig.)

Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

Science.gov (United States)

Alpert, J. C.; Yudin, V.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Akmaev, R. A.

2017-12-01

The Unified Gravity Wave Physics (UGWP) project for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) is a NOAA collaborative effort between the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environemntal Modeling Center (EMC) and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CU-CIRES) to support upgrades and improvements of GW dynamics (resolved scales) and physics (sub-grid scales) in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)†. As envisioned the global climate, weather and space weather models of NEMS will substantially improve their predictions and forecasts with the resolution-sensitive (scale-aware) formulations planned under the UGWP framework for both orographic and non-stationary waves. In particular, the planned improvements for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of NEMS are: calibration of model physics for higher vertical and horizontal resolution and an extended vertical range of simulations, upgrades to GW schemes, including the turbulent heating and eddy mixing due to wave dissipation and breaking, and representation of the internally-generated QBO. The main priority of the UGWP project is unified parameterization of orographic and non-orographic GW effects including momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere and turbulent heating and eddies due to wave dissipation and breaking. The latter effects are not currently represented in NOAA atmosphere models. The team has tested and evaluated four candidate GW solvers integrating the selected GW schemes into the NGGPS model. Our current work and planned activity is to implement the UGWP schemes in the first available GFS/FV3 (open FV3) configuration including adapted GFDL modification for sub-grid orography in GFS. Initial global model results will be shown for the operational and research GFS configuration for spectral and FV3 dynamical cores. †http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NEMS

Global Turbulence Decision Support for Aviation

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, J.; Sharman, R.; Kessinger, C.; Feltz, W.; Wimmers, A.

2009-09-01

Turbulence is widely recognized as the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers on commercial air carriers, yet legacy decision support products such as SIGMETs and SIGWX charts provide relatively low spatial- and temporal-resolution assessments and forecasts of turbulence, with limited usefulness for strategic planning and tactical turbulence avoidance. A new effort is underway to develop an automated, rapid-update, gridded global turbulence diagnosis and forecast system that addresses upper-level clear-air turbulence, mountain-wave turbulence, and convectively-induced turbulence. This NASA-funded effort, modeled on the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) and GTG Nowcast systems, employs NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model output and data from NASA and operational satellites to produce quantitative turbulence nowcasts and forecasts. A convective nowcast element based on GFS forecasts and satellite data provides a basis for diagnosing convective turbulence. An operational prototype "Global GTG” system has been running in real-time at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research since the spring of 2009. Initial verification based on data from TRMM, Cloudsat and MODIS (for the convection nowcasting) and AIREPs and AMDAR data (for turbulence) are presented. This product aims to provide the "single authoritative source” for global turbulence information for the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) 0-10cm Soil-Moisture Forecast Product

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast 0-10cm soil-moisture data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near...

Large differences in the diabatic heat budget of the tropical UTLS in reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, J. S.; Fueglistaler, S.

2013-04-01

We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) as simulated by five reanalysis models: MERRA, ERA-Interim, CFSR, JRA-25/JCDAS, and NCEP/NCAR. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including latent heating, heating due to radiative transfer, and heating due to parameterised vertical mixing. We describe and discuss the most pronounced differences. Although they may be expected given difficulties in representing moist convection in models, the discrepancies in latent heating are still disturbing. We pay particular attention to discrepancies in radiative heating (which may be surprising given the strength of observational constraints on temperature and tropospheric water vapour) and discrepancies in heating due to turbulent mixing (which have received comparatively little attention).

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GODAS dataset is a real-time ocean analysis and a reanalysis. It is used for monitoring, retrospective analysis as well as for providing oceanic initial...

Toward Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

Science.gov (United States)

Kamal, S.; Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Seefeldt, M. W.

2017-12-01

The Regional Arctic system model has been developed and used to advance the current state of Arctic modeling and increase the skill of sea ice forecast. RASM is a fully coupled, limited-area model that includes the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land hydrology and runoff routing components and the flux coupler to exchange information among them. Boundary conditions are derived from NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalyses (CFSR) or Era Iterim (ERA-I) for hindcast simulations or from NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) for seasonal forecasts. We have used RASM to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). Each year, we produced three SIOs for the September minimum, initialized on June 1, July 1 and August 1. In 2016, predictions used a simple linear regression model to correct for systematic biases and included the mean September sea ice extent, the daily minimum and the week of the minimum. In 2017, we produced a 12-member ensemble on June 1 and July 1, and 28-member ensemble August 1. The predictions of September 2017 included the pan-Arctic and regional Alaskan sea ice extent, daily and monthly mean pan-Arctic maps of sea ice probability, concentration and thickness. No bias correction was applied to the 2017 forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss future plans for RASM forecasts, which include increased resolution for model components, ecosystem predictions with marine biogeochemistry extensions (mBGC) to the ocean and sea ice components, and feasibility of optional boundary conditions using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).

Sub-Seasonal Prediction of the Maritime Continent Rainfall of Wet-Dry Transitional Seasons in the NCEP Climate Forecast Version 2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuantuan Zhang

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the characteristics and prediction of the Maritime Continent (MC rainfall for the transitional periods between wet and dry seasons. Several observational data sets and the output from the 45-day hindcast by the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2 are used. Results show that the MC experiences a sudden transition from wet season to dry season (WTD around the 27th pentad, and a gradual transition from dry season to wet season (DTW around the 59th pentad. Correspondingly, the westerlies over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the easterlies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the Australia High become weaker, contributing to weakening of the convergence over the MC. The subtropical western Pacific high intensifies and extends northeastward during the WTD. The Mascarene High becomes weaker, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation forms over the northeast of the Philippines, and an anomalous low-level convergence occurs over the western MC during the DTW. The NCEP CFSv2 captures the major features of rainfall and related atmospheric circulation when forecast lead time is less than three weeks for WTD and two weeks for DTW. The model predicts a weaker amplitude of the changes in rainfall and related atmospheric circulation for both WTD and DTW as lead time increases.

TropFlux: air-sea fluxes for the global tropical oceans-description and evaluation

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

PraveenKumar, B.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Murty, V.S.N.; McPhaden, M.J.

This paper evaluates several timely, daily air-sea heat flux products (NCEP, NCEP2, ERA-Interim and OAFlux/ISCCP) against observations and present the newly developed TropFlux product. This new product uses bias-corrected ERA-interim and ISCCP data...

A characterization of Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt and runoff in contemporary reanalyses and a regional climate model

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Richard eCullather

2016-02-01

Full Text Available For the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS, large-scale melt area has increased in recent years and is detectable via remote sensing, but its relation to runoff is not known. Historical, modeled melt area and runoff from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Replay, the Interim Re-Analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR, and the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR are examined. These sources compare favorably with satellite-derived estimates of surface melt area for the period 2000-2012. Spatially, the models markedly disagree on the number of melt days in the interior of the southern part of the ice sheet, and on the extent of persistent melt areas in the northeastern GrIS. Temporally, the models agree on the mean seasonality of daily surface melt and on the timing of large-scale melt events in 2012. In contrast, the models disagree on the amount, seasonality, spatial distribution, and temporal variability of runoff. As compared to global reanalyses, time series from MAR indicate a lower correlation between runoff and melt area (r2 = 0.805. Runoff in MAR is much larger in the second half of the melt season for all drainage basins, while the ASR indicates larger runoff in the first half of the year. This difference in seasonality for the MAR and to an extent for the ASR provide a hysteresis in the relation between runoff and melt area, which is not found in the other models. The comparison points to a need for reliable observations of surface runoff.

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyos, Isabel; Baquero-Bernal, Astrid; Hagemann, Stefan

2013-09-01

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while

Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

KAUST Repository

Perdigão, João Carlos

2016-01-26

© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results show that reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm-2 (40Wm-2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964-1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).

Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

KAUST Repository

Perdigã o, Joã o Carlos; Salgado, Rui; Costa, Maria Joã o; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo

2016-01-01

© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results show that reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm-2 (40Wm-2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964-1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

2018-04-01

In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014)

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.; Shukla, J.; Marx, L.; Balmaseda, M.; Halder, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Kinter, J. L.

2016-12-01

A set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2014 is conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with observation-based ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice reanalyses, including the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, the ERA-40 atmospheric reanalysis, the NCEP CFS Reanalysis for atmosphere, land and sea ice, and the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System reanalysis version 2.0 for land. The purpose is to examine a long and continuous seasonal reforecast dataset from a modern seasonal forecast system to be used by the research community. In comparison with other current reforecasts, this dataset allows us to evaluate the degree to which El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be predicted, using a larger sample of events. Furthermore, we can directly compare the predictability of the ENSO events in 1960s-70s with the more widely studied ENSO events occurring since the 1980s to examine the state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system's capability at different phases of global climate change and multidecadal variability. A major concern is whether the seasonal reforecasts before 1979 have useful skill when there were fewer ocean observations. Our preliminary examination of the reforecasts shows that, although the reforecasts have lower skill in predicting the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic before 1979, the prediction skill of the ENSO onset and development for 1958-1978 is comparable to that for 1979-2014. The skill of the earlier predictions declines faster in the ENSO decaying phase because the reforecasts initialized after the summer season persistently predict lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the decaying phase of several major ENSO events in the 1960s-70s. Since the 1980s, the reforecasts initialized in fall overestimate the peak SST

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

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K. Miyazaki

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55 generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25. The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC. The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

Simulation of low clouds in the Southeast Pacific by the NCEP GFS: sensitivity to vertical mixing

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, R.; Moorthi, S.; Xiao, H.; Mechoso, C. R.

2010-12-01

The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model has an important systematic error shared by many other models: stratocumuli are missed over the subtropical eastern oceans. It is shown that this error can be alleviated in the GFS by introducing a consideration of the low-level inversion and making two modifications in the model's representation of vertical mixing. The modifications consist of (a) the elimination of background vertical diffusion above the inversion and (b) the incorporation of a stability parameter based on the cloud-top entrainment instability (CTEI) criterion, which limits the strength of shallow convective mixing across the inversion. A control simulation and three experiments are performed in order to examine both the individual and combined effects of modifications on the generation of the stratocumulus clouds. Individually, both modifications result in enhanced cloudiness in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) region, although the cloudiness is still low compared to the ISCCP climatology. If the modifications are applied together, however, the total cloudiness produced in the southeast Pacific has realistic values. This nonlinearity arises as the effects of both modifications reinforce each other in reducing the leakage of moisture across the inversion. Increased moisture trapped below the inversion than in the control run without modifications leads to an increase in cloud amount and cloud-top radiative cooling. Then a positive feedback due to enhanced turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer by cloud-top radiative cooling leads to and maintains the stratocumulus cover. Although the amount of total cloudiness obtained with both modifications has realistic values, the relative contributions of low, middle, and high layers tend to differ from the observations. These results demonstrate that it is possible to simulate realistic marine boundary clouds in large-scale models by implementing direct and physically based improvements in the model

NCEP-GTS Marine Observations in BUFR format

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Telecommunications System (GTS) is a major component of transmitting global meteorological data, consisting of both in situ and satellite observations....

NCEP-GTS Marine Observations in IMMA format

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Telecommunications System (GTS) is a major component of transmitting global meteorological data, consisting of both in situ and satellite observations....

Predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liang, Jianyin [CMA Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, Guangzhou, Guangdong (China); Yang, Song; Kumar, Arun [NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua [George Mason University, Department of Climate Dynamics, Fairfax, VA (United States); Zhang, Zuqiang [CMA National Climate Center, Beijing (China)

2009-06-15

The predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS) are depicted by applying a maximized signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis. The CFS captures the two most dominant modes of observed climate patterns. The first most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the onset years of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with strong precipitation signals over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans, Southeast Asia, and tropical Asian monsoon regions including the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. The second most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the decay years of ENSO, with weakening signals over the western-central Pacific and strengthening signals over the Indian Ocean. The CFS is capable of predicting the most dominant modes several months in advance. It is also highly skillful in capturing the air-sea interaction processes associated with the precipitation features, as demonstrated in sea surface temperature and wind patterns. (orig.)

Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Barcikowska, Monika; Feser, Frauke; Zhang, Wei; Mei, Wei

2017-11-01

An atmospheric regional climate model (CCLM) was employed to dynamically downscale atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR 1, ERA 40) over the western North Pacific and South East Asia. This approach is used for the first time to reconstruct a tropical cyclone climatology, which extends beyond the satellite era and serves as an alternative data set for inhomogeneous observation-derived records (Best Track Data sets). The simulated TC climatology skillfully reproduces observations of the recent decades (1978-2010), including spatial patterns, frequency, lifetime, trends, variability on interannual and decadal time scales and their association with the large-scale circulation patterns. These skills, facilitated here with the spectral nudging method, seem to be a prerequisite to understand the factors determining spatio-temporal variability of TC activity over the western North Pacific. Long-term trends (1948-2011 and 1959-2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations. The discrepancy may partly originate from temporal inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalyses and Best Track Data, which affect both the model-based and observational-based trends. An adjustment, which removes the simulated upward trend, reduces the apparent discrepancy. Ultimately, our observational and modeling analysis suggests an important contribution of multi-decadal fluctuations in the TC activity during the last six decades. Nevertheless, due to the uncertainties associated with the inconsistencies and quality changes of those data sets, we call for special caution when reconstructing long-term TC statistics either from atmospheric reanalyses or Best Track Data.

Estimation of the uncertainty of a climate model using an ensemble simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Barth, A.; Mathiot, P.; Goosse, H.

2012-04-01

The atmospheric forcings play an important role in the study of the ocean and sea-ice dynamics of the Southern Ocean. Error in the atmospheric forcings will inevitably result in uncertain model results. The sensitivity of the model results to errors in the atmospheric forcings are studied with ensemble simulations using multivariate perturbations of the atmospheric forcing fields. The numerical ocean model used is the NEMO-LIM in a global configuration with an horizontal resolution of 2°. NCEP reanalyses are used to provide air temperature and wind data to force the ocean model over the last 50 years. A climatological mean is used to prescribe relative humidity, cloud cover and precipitation. In a first step, the model results is compared with OSTIA SST and OSI SAF sea ice concentration of the southern hemisphere. The seasonal behavior of the RMS difference and bias in SST and ice concentration is highlighted as well as the regions with relatively high RMS errors and biases such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and near the ice-edge. Ensemble simulations are performed to statistically characterize the model error due to uncertainties in the atmospheric forcings. Such information is a crucial element for future data assimilation experiments. Ensemble simulations are performed with perturbed air temperature and wind forcings. A Fourier decomposition of the NCEP wind vectors and air temperature for 2007 is used to generate ensemble perturbations. The perturbations are scaled such that the resulting ensemble spread matches approximately the RMS differences between the satellite SST and sea ice concentration. The ensemble spread and covariance are analyzed for the minimum and maximum sea ice extent. It is shown that errors in the atmospheric forcings can extend to several hundred meters in depth near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Clark

Full Text Available Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year.We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5 rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013 and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG, 122,322 (GBD and 215,757 (WHO/CDC. The three groups used different methods: (i to select data points for rotavirus-positive proportions; (ii to extrapolate data points to individual countries; (iii to account for rotavirus vaccine coverage; (iv to convert rotavirus-positive proportions to rotavirus attributable fractions; and (v to calculate uncertainty ranges. We conducted new analyses to inform future estimates. We found that acute watery diarrhoea was associated with 87% (95% CI 83-90% of U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations based on data from 84 hospital sites in 9 countries, and 65% (95% CI 57-74% of U5 diarrhoea deaths based on verbal autopsy reports from 9 country sites. We reanalysed data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS and found 44% (55% in Asia, and 32% in Africa rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea hospitalisations, and 28% rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea deaths. 97% (95% CI 95-98% of the U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations that tested positive for rotavirus were entirely attributable to rotavirus. For all clinical syndromes combined the rotavirus attributable fraction was 34% (95% CI 31-36%. This increased by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI 1.02-1.14 when the GEMS results were reanalysed using a more sensitive molecular test.We developed consensus on seven proposals for improving the quality and transparency of future rotavirus mortality estimates.

Climatology (communication arising): Rural land-use change and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2004-01-01

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

Climatology (communication arising): rural land-use change and climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E

2004-01-15

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

Science.gov (United States)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

hemisphere. Trigo IF., TD Davies, GR Bigg (1999) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate 12: 1685-1696. Trigo IF (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. 26: 127-143.

Evaluation of ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-DOE R2 and CFSR Reanalysis precipitation Data using Gauge Observation over Ethiopia for a period of 33 years

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Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The vital demand of reliable climatic and hydrologic data of fine spatial and temporal resolution triggered the employment of reanalysis datasets as a surrogate in most of the hydrological modelling exercises. This study examines the performance of four widely used reanalysis datasets: ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE R2, MERRA and CFSR, in reproducing the spatio-temporal characteristics of observed daily precipitation of different stations spread across Ethiopia, East Africa. The appropriateness of relying on reanalysis datasets for hydrologic modelling, climate change impact assessment and regional modelling studies is assessed using various statistical and non-parametric techniques. ERA-Interim is found to exhibit higher correlation and least root mean square error values with observed daily rainfall, which is followed by CFSR and MERRA in most of the stations. The variability of daily precipitation is better captured by ERA, CFSR and MERRA, while NCEP-DOE R2 overestimated the spread of the precipitation data. While ERA overestimates the probability of moderate rainfall, it is seemingly better in capturing the probability of low rainfall. CFSR captures the overall distribution reasonable well. NCEP-DOE R2 appears to be outperforming others in capturing the probabilities of higher magnitude rainfall. Climatological seasonal cycle and the characteristics of wet and dry spells are compared further, where ERA seemingly replicates the pattern more effectively. However, observed rainfall exhibits higher frequency of short wet spells when compared to that of any reanalysis datasets. MERRA relatively underperforms in simulating the wet spell characteristics of observed daily rainfall. CFSR overestimates the mean wet spell length and mean dry spell length. Spatial trend analysis indicates that the northern and central western Ethiopia show increasing trends, whereas the Central and Eastern Ethiopia as well as the Southern Ethiopia stations show either no trend

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar , 2011) the Monsoon Desk at NCEP/EMC is open for business! Click to view NCEP presentations from workshop East Asia Weather and Climate graphics Asian/Australian Monsoon graphics Global Monsoon graphics SYSTEM

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON SPECTRAL ENERGETICS BETWEEN THE NCEP reanalysisII in current climate AND MODEL ECHAM5 in future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. P.

2013-12-01

Saltzman (1957) starting Lorenz Cycle (1955) derived a set of equations that show the energy contained in the basic state and the disturbed atmosphere, decomposing in various fields disturbance wave type, so as to quantify and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength. Based on the methodology Saltzman, this paper aims a comparative study between the energy of the disturbed state between the NCEP reanalysis-II for the current weather conditions and model ECHAM5 scenarios for future conditions of increased concentration of greenhouse gases (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85), considering the terms of the generation of available potential energy to nth wave due to diabatic heating, represented by (Gn), the potential energy of nth wave (Pn) and kinetic energy of nth wave (Kn), as well as the conversion of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy nth wave of nth wave, given by (Cn). Two data sets were used in the calculation of the aforementioned terms. For the data set of NCEP and ECHAM5 were used variables, temperature (T), orthogonal wind components (u, v, w) and geopotential height (L), considering daily shared values on a regular grid with spatial resolutions of 2,5 x 2.5 and 1.875 x 1.875 graus, distributed on 12 and 15 levels of pressure (1000.0, 925.0, 850.0, 700.0, 600.0, 500.0, 400.0, 300.0, 250.0, 200.0, 150.0, 100.0 hPa), (1000.0, 850.0, 700.0, 500.0, 250.0, 150.0, 100.0, 70.0, 50.0, 30.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.1 hPa) for the period of 1979-1999 and 2090-2100, respectively. The results show that most of the kinetic energy of disturbance to nth waves is concentrated in the first 15 wave numbers, both for the weather-NCEP II as to ECHAM5, having more significant increase in the profile and having a RCP85 energy cascade. This increase in kinetic energy was expected due to the increased energy in the system. For Pn, increasing the potential energy is also expected in view of the increased diabatic heating, but the energy jump

Lipid Treatment Assessment Project (L-TAP Study : a survey in 13 cities in Indonesia to evaluate the percentages of dyslipidemic patients achieving NCEP LDL-C target goals after treatment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rinambaan W.M. Kaligis

2001-06-01

Full Text Available Clinical trials have demonstrated significant benefit from low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C lowering for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. In the US, it is well recognized that a substantial number of hypercholesterolemic patients were not treated to the LDL-C goals recommended by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP guidelines. In 1996, the Indonesian Heart Association (PERKI has issued guidelines recommending goals for screening and lipid treatment in Indonesia adopted from NCEP guidelines; however, the frequency of undertreatment in Indonesia is not known. The objective of this study was to determine the percentage of patients treated with lipid-lowering therapy who reached LDL-C goals as defined by NCEP guidelines in routine clinical practice. This was a cross-sectional survey targeted physicians who regularly treated dyslipidemic patients in 13 cities in Indonesia. Participating doctors were asked on their awareness of NCEP guidelines and to complete the case record form (CRF of the enrolled patients. One-hundred and eighty-eight (188 out of four hundreds (400 physicians who were invited, have participated in this study. Among the evaluable 1420 CRF, 1082 patients received statins, 301 used fibrates, 14 patients used combination drugs, and 23 others received non-drug treatments only. Success rates on achieving target LDL-C in low-risk, high-risk, and CHD groups were 73.0 %, 43.6 %, and 14.8 %, respectively. Overall success rate in patients using statins was 55.1 %, while in low-risk group, high-risk group, and CHD patients, the success rates with statin were 77.8%, 50.1%, and 18.6 %, respectively. Atorvastatin showed the highest success rate (77.4 % if compared to other statins. Only 14 % of physicians were knowledgeable about the NCEP goals. Conclusion : A large number of dyslipidemic patients who were on lipid-lowering therapy were not achieving the recommended LDL-C target

Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

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M. Fujiwara

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, M. D.; Roberts, C. D.; Balmaseda, M.; Chang, Y.-S.; Chepurin, G.; Ferry, N.; Fujii, Y.; Good, S. A.; Guinehut, S.; Haines, K.; Hernandez, F.; Köhl, A.; Lee, T.; Martin, M. J.; Masina, S.; Masuda, S.; Peterson, K. A.; Storto, A.; Toyoda, T.; Valdivieso, M.; Vernieres, G.; Wang, O.; Xue, Y.

2017-08-01

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0-300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993-2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997-2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997-2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0-700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization `shock' over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady

Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pattanaik, D.R. [India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi (India); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2010-03-15

The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the National Centre for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) climate forecast system (CFS) initialized during March, April and May and integrated for a period of 9 months with a 15 ensemble members for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005. The CFS's hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (lag-1) initial conditions show mostly an identical pattern of rainfall similar to that of verification climatology with the rainfall maxima (one over the west-coast of India and the other over the head Bay of Bengal region) well simulated. The pattern correlation between verification and forecast climatology over the global tropics and Indian monsoon region (IMR) bounded by 50 E-110 E and 10 S-35 N shows significant correlation coefficient (CCs). The skill of simulation of broad scale monsoon circulation index (Webster and Yang; WY index) is quite good in the CFS with highly significant CC between the observed and predicted by the CFS from the March, April and May forecasts. High skill in forecasting El Nino event is also noted for the CFS March, April and May initial conditions, whereas, the skill of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole is poor and is basically due to the poor skill of prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the IMR the skill of monsoon rainfall forecast during JJAS as measured by the spatial Anomaly CC between forecast rainfall anomaly and the observed rainfall anomaly during 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1998 is high (almost of the order of 0.6), whereas, during the year 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 and 1989 the ACC is only around 0.3. By using lower and upper tropospheric forecast winds during JJAS over the regions of significant CCs as predictors for the All India Summer Monsoon

A Global Repository for Planet-Sized Experiments and Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Dean; Balaji, V.; Cinquini, Luca; Denvil, Sebastien; Duffy, Daniel; Evans, Ben; Ferraro, Robert D.; Hansen, Rose; Lautenschlager, Michael; Trenham, Claire

2016-01-01

Working across U.S. federal agencies, international agencies, and multiple worldwide data centers, and spanning seven international network organizations, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) allows users to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered yet united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. Data served by ESGF not only include model output (i.e., CMIP simulation runs) but also include observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalyses, and generated images. Metadata summarize basic information about the data for fast and easy data discovery.

A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

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Sabrina Wahl

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

Comparison of the seasonal climate simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the reanalysis NCEP/NCAR with the observed data of the temperature of the air and the precipitation in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leon Aristizabal, Gloria Esperanza; Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal

2001-01-01

In this work we carry out a comparison of the simulations of the climatic model CCM3, the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and real data, by the practical significance of the model based on the observed differences

An Analysis of the Relationship Between Atmospheric Heat Transport and the Position of the ITCZ in NASA NEWS products, CMIP5 GCMs, and Multiple Reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Stanfield, R.; Dong, X.; Su, H.; Xi, B.; Jiang, J. H.

2016-12-01

In the past few years, studies have found a strong connection between atmospheric heat transport across the equator (AHTEQ) and the position of the ITCZ. This study investigates the seasonal, annual-mean and interannual variability of the ITCZ position and explores the relationships between the ITCZ position and inter-hemispheric energy transport in NASA NEWS products, multiple reanalyses datasets, and CMIP5 simulations. We find large discrepancies exist in the ITCZ-AHTEQ relationships in these datasets and model simulations. The components of energy fluxes are examined to identify the primary sources for the discrepancies among the datasets and models results.

Connection of the stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part II: interdecadal variations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Climate Prediction Center (Room 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Kinter, James L. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center (Room 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-01-15

The interdecadal variation of the association of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) and with the general circulation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is examined using the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, as well as other observation-based analyses. It is found that the relationship between the QBO and tropical SSTA changed once around 1978-1980, and again in 1993-1995. During 1966-1974, negative correlation between the QBO and NINO3.4 indices reached its maximum when the NINO3.4 index lagged the QBO by less than 6 months. Correspondingly, the positive correlations were observed when the NINO3.4 index led the QBO by about 11-13 months or lagged by about 12-18 months. However, maximum negative correlations were shifted from the NINO3.4 index lagging the QBO by about 0-6 months during 1966-1974 to about 3-12 months during 1985-1992. During 1975-1979, both the negative and positive correlations were relatively small and the QBO and ENSO were practically unrelated to each other. The phase-based QBO life cycle composites also confirm that, on average, there are two phase (6-7 months) delay in the evolution of the QBO-associated anomalous Walker circulation, tropical SST, atmospheric stability, and troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature anomalies during 1980-1994 in comparison with those in 1957-1978. The interdecadal variation of the association between the QBO and the troposphere variability may be largely due to the characteristic change of El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The irregularity of the QBO may play a secondary role in the interdecadal variation of the association. (orig.)

Ocean heat content variability in an ensemble of twentieth century ocean reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

de Boisséson, Eric; Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Mayer, Michael

2017-08-01

This paper presents a ten-member ensemble of twentieth century Ocean ReAnalyses called ORA-20C. ORA-20C assimilates temperature and salinity profiles and is forced by the ECMWF twentieth century atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-20C) over the 1900-2010 period. This study attempts to identify robust signals of ocean heat content change in ORA-20C and detect contamination by model errors, initial condition uncertainty, surface fluxes and observing system changes. It is shown that ORA-20C trends and variability in the first part of the century result from the surface fluxes and model drift towards a warmer mean state and weak meridional overturning circulation. The impact of the observing system in correcting the mean state causes the deceleration of the warming trend and alters the long-term climate signal. The ensemble spread reflects the long-lasting memory of the initial conditions and the convergence of the system to a solution compatible with surface fluxes, the ocean model and observational constraints. Observations constrain the ocean heat uptake trend in the last decades of the twentieth century, which is similar to trend estimations from the post-satellite era. An ocean heat budget analysis attributes ORA-20C heat content changes to surface fluxes in the first part of the century. The heat flux variability reflects spurious signals stemming from ERA-20C surface fields, which in return result from changes in the atmospheric observing system. The influence of the temperature assimilation increments on the heat budget is growing with time. Increments control the most recent ocean heat uptake signals, highlighting imbalances in forced reanalysis systems in the ocean as well as in the atmosphere.

Heat Stress in a Climate Setting: A Framework for Reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Huynh, Jonathan

The proliferation of reanalysis models for the atmosphere in recent decades has allowed researchers to study Earth's past climate in great detail. While much work has gone into understanding key climate indicators such as surface temperature and precipitation trends, there have been few studies dealing with heat stress. As climate change grows increasingly exigent, it is becoming vitally important to understand the thermal impacts on biological systems. This study analyzed data from five reanalysis models (20CRv2, NARR, NNRA 1, NCEP DOE 2, and ERA-I) and found agreement in average surface temperature increases of 0.2-0.6°C per decade across the U.S. west coast and east coast since 1979. These trends were consistent with previous studies. Less agreement was found for the central U.S. The Temperature Humidity Index and the Heat Index were found to generally follow the temperature trends. An analysis of the role of moisture indicated that the effect of specific humidity on heat stress is dependent on climatology. Trends of heat stress over arid regions such as the desert southwest were found to be much more influenced by temperature trends than by moisture trends. In contrast, moisture seemed to play a stronger role in the more humid southeast. There appeared to be a more equal effect of temperature and moisture on heat stress in the northeast and Great Lake states. Perhaps equally as important, the study provides a framework to reduce computational time but allows for more rigorous statistical methods that are not available in the typical suite of software and programming languages to analyze climate data. Functionality was developed to infer daily extrema from six-hourly reanalysis data. A shapefile was used to aggregate the data according to prescribed geographic boundaries and reduce the load of data for statistical analysis. Time series decomposition was performed on the aggregated daily data to determine linear trends which were then mapped out to visualize

Global distribution of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature variations

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W. Steinbrecht

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This study gives an overview of interannual variations of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature. It is based on newer and longer records from the 1979 to 2001 Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV instruments, and on US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalyses. Multiple linear least squares regression is used to attribute variations to various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Usually, maps of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature variations look very similar, reflecting a very close coupling between the two. As a rule of thumb, a 10 Dobson Unit (DU change in total ozone corresponds to a 1 K change of 50 hPa temperature. Large variations come from the linear trend term, up to -30 DU or -1.5 K/decade, from terms related to polar vortex strength, up to 50 DU or 5 K (typical, minimum to maximum, from tropospheric meteorology, up to 30 DU or 3 K, or from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K. The 11-year solar cycle, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K, or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, up to 10 DU or 1 K, are contributing smaller variations. Stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to warming up to 3 K at low latitudes and to ozone depletion up to 40 DU at high latitudes. Variations attributed to QBO, polar vortex strength, and to a lesser degree to ENSO, exhibit an inverse correlation between low latitudes and higher latitudes. Variations related to the solar cycle or 400 hPa temperature, however, have the same sign over most of the globe. Variations are usually zonally symmetric at low and mid-latitudes, but asymmetric at high latitudes. There, position and strength of the stratospheric anti-cyclones over the Aleutians and south of Australia appear to vary with the phases of solar cycle, QBO or ENSO.

Avaliação do modelo regional eta utilizando as análises do CPTEC e NCEP Evaluation of the eta regional model using the analysis of CPTEC and NCEP

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Rildo Gonçalves de Moura

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Os modelos numéricos de tempo são ferramentas essenciais para a previsão de curto e longo prazo, permitindo realizar a previsão com vários dias de antecedência. O conhecimento do desempenho dos modelos e dos erros sistemáticos a eles associados, é de suma importância, pois permite avaliar a capacidade dos mesmos em captar os processos físicos da atmosfera. Com intuito de melhorar a qualidade da previsão de tempo na América do Sul, disponibilizada no Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC, este trabalho avaliou as previsões de precipitação e pressão ao nível médio do mar para o prazo de até 120 horas, utilizando o erro médio (EM e a raiz do erro médio quadrático (REMQ no período de dezembro de 2007 a fevereiro de 2008. O modelo utilizado foi o ETA (40 km, com duas entradas distintas de dados, as análises do Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS (ETA-I e do National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP (ETA-II. Os resultados mostraram, para ambas as análises, uma tendência de superestimativa (valores positivos do erro médio da precipitação sobre a Região Norte do Brasil, principalmente para 24 horas de previsão. Em relação à pressão ao nível médio do mar (PNMM foi possível verificar claramente que o ETA-I apresenta melhores resultados em comparação com o ETA-II, cujos valores de pressão se aproximaram bastante do observado, principalmente nas primeiras horas de integração.The numerical weather models are essential tools for predicting short and long term, allowing the prediction of weather conditions several days in advance. The knowledge of models performance and the systematic errors associated with them is extremely important because it allows to evaluate the ability to capture the physical processes of the atmosphere. In order to improve the quality of weather forecast in South America, available at Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC, this study

Regional reanalysis without local data: Exploiting the downscaling paradigm

Science.gov (United States)

von Storch, Hans; Feser, Frauke; Geyer, Beate; Klehmet, Katharina; Li, Delei; Rockel, Burkhardt; Schubert-Frisius, Martina; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

2017-08-01

This paper demonstrates two important aspects of regional dynamical downscaling of multidecadal atmospheric reanalysis. First, that in this way skillful regional descriptions of multidecadal climate variability may be constructed in regions with little or no local data. Second, that the concept of large-scale constraining allows global downscaling, so that global reanalyses may be completed by additions of consistent detail in all regions of the world. Global reanalyses suffer from inhomogeneities. However, their large-scale componenst are mostly homogeneous; Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complement the large-scale state of the reanalyses with regional detail—wherever the condition of homogeneity of the description of large scales is fulfilled. Technically, this can be done by dynamical downscaling using a regional or global climate model, which's large scales are constrained by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional weather risks—in particular marine risks—was identified. We have run this system in regions with reduced or absent local data coverage, such as Central Siberia, the Bohai and Yellow Sea, Southwestern Africa, and the South Atlantic. Also, a global simulation was computed, which adds regional features to prescribed global dynamics. Our cases demonstrate that spatially detailed reconstructions of the climate state and its change in the recent three to six decades add useful supplementary information to existing observational data for midlatitude and subtropical regions of the world.

Lack of chart reminder effectiveness on family medicine resident JNC-VI and NCEP III guideline knowledge and attitudes

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Upshur Ross EG

2004-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The literature demonstrates that medical residents and practicing physicians have an attitudinal-behavioral discordance concerning their positive attitudes towards clinical practice guidelines (CPG, and the implementation of these guidelines into clinical practice patterns. Methods A pilot study was performed to determine if change in a previously identified CPG compliance factor (accessibility would produce a significant increase in family medicine resident knowledge and attitude toward the guidelines. The primary study intervention involved placing a summary of the Sixth Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC VI and the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (NCEP III CPGs in all patient (>18 yr. charts for a period of three months. The JNC VI and NCEP III CPGs were also distributed to each Wayne State family medicine resident, and a copy of each CPG was placed in the preceptor's area of the involved clinics. Identical pre- and post- intervention questionnaires were administered to all residents concerning CPG knowledge and attitude. Results Post-intervention analysis failed to demonstrate a significant difference in CPG knowledge. A stastically significant post-intervention difference was found in only on attitude question. The barriers to CPG compliance were identified as 1 lack of CPG instruction; 2 lack of critical appraisal ability; 3 insufficient time; 4 lack of CPG accessibility; and 5 lack of faculty modeling. Conclusion This study demonstrated no significant post intervention changes in CPG knowledge, and only one question that reflected attitude change. Wider resident access to dedicated clinic time, increased faculty modeling, and the implementation of an electronic record/reminder system that uses a team-based approach are compliance factors that

Modelling the Asian summer monsoon using CCAM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, Kim Chi; McGregor, John L. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2009-02-15

A ten-year mean (1989-1998) climatology of the Asian summer monsoon is studied using the CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to downscale NCEP reanalyses. The aim of the current study is to validate the model results against previous work on this topic, in order to identify model strengths and weaknesses in simulating the Asian summer monsoon. The model results are compared with available observations and are presented in two parts. In the first part, the mean summer rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures and winds are compared with the observations. The second part focuses on validation of the monsoon onset. The model captures the mean characteristics such as the cross-equatorial flow of low-level winds over the Indian Ocean and near the Somali coast, rainfall patterns, onset indices, northward movements, active-break and revival periods. (orig.)

Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

Science.gov (United States)

León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

2012-04-01

One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

Equatorial annual oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year modulation in NCEP data

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H. G. Mayr

2007-02-01

Full Text Available An analysis is presented of the stratospheric zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP. The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the 12-month annual oscillation (AO and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO. For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the zonal wind results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also seen in the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different time intervals of the data indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this particular QBO period is involved in generating the oscillation as was shown in a modeling study (Mayr et al., 2000. In agreement with the model, the spectral analysis also reveals a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal wind data, which could interact with the strong anti-symmetric AO to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO. The 30-month QBO is well suited to be synchronized by, and phase-locked to, the equatorial semi-annual oscillation (SAO, and this may explain why this QBO periodicity and its 5-year spin-off are observed to persist for many cycles.

Equatorial Annual Oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year Modulation in NCEP Data

Science.gov (United States)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2007-01-01

An analysis is presented of the zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which have been assimilated in the Reanalysis and the Climate Prediction Center (CCP) data sets. The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the annual 12-month oscillation and Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also inferred for the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different data samples indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this periodicity of the QBO is involved in generating the oscillation. The spectral analysis shows that there is a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal winds, which could interact with the large antisymmetric A0 to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO as was shown in earlier modeling studies. According to these studies, the 30-month QBO tends to be synchronized by the equatorial Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO), and this would explain why the inferred 5-year modulation is observed to persist and is phase locked over several cycles.

Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

2017-10-01

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

2012-07-01

The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

Science.gov (United States)

Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-01-01

Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

Extreme wind atlases of South Africa from global reanalysis data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries; Badger, Jake

2013-01-01

Extreme wind atlases of South Africa were developed using three reanalysis data and recently developed approaches. The results are compared with the maps produced using standard wind measurements over the region. It was found that different reanalyses with the same approach provide similar spatia...

Structure and variances of equatorial zonal circulation in a multimodel ensemble

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC (Canada); Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria, BC (Canada); Ting, M.F. [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States)

2012-11-15

The structure and variance of the equatorial zonal circulation, as characterized by the atmospheric mass flux in the equatorial zonal plane, is examined and inter-compared in simulations from 9 CMIP3 coupled climate models with multiple ensemble members and the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses. The climate model simulations analyzed here include twentieth century (20C3M) and twenty-first century (SRES A1B) simulations. We evaluate the 20C3M modeled zonal circulations by comparing them with those in the reanalyses. We then examine the variability of the circulation, its changes with global warming, and the associated thermodynamic maintenance. The tropical zonal circulation involves three major components situated over the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans. The three cells are supported by the corresponding diabatic heating extending deeply throughout the troposphere, with heating centers apparent in the mid-troposphere. Seasonal features appear in the zonal circulation, including variations in its intensity and longitudinal migration. Most models, and hence the multi-model mean, represent the annual and seasonal features of the circulation and the associated heating reasonably well. The multi-model mean reproduces the observed climatology better than any individual model, as indicated by the spatial pattern correlation and mean square difference of the mass flux and the diabatic heating compared to the reanalysis based values. Projected changes in the zonal circulation under A1B forcing are dominated by mass flux changes over the Pacific and Indian oceans. An eastward shift of the Pacific Walker circulation is clearly evident with global warming, with anomalous rising motion apparent over the equatorial central Pacific and anomalous sinking motions in the west and east, which favors an overall strengthening of the Walker circulation. The zonal circulation weakens and shifts westwards over the Indian Ocean under external forcing, whereas it strengthens and shifts

ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)

2012-11-15

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43. MERRA-2; Initial Evaluation of the Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Koster, Randal D. (Editor); Bosilovich, Michael G.; Akella, Santha; Lawrence, Coy; Cullather, Richard; Draper, Clara; Gelaro, Ronald; Kovach, Robin; Liu, Qing; Molod, Andrea;

Challenges of coordinating global climate observations - Role of satellites in climate monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Richter, C.

2017-12-01

Global observation of the Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land is essential for identifying climate variability and change, and for understanding their causes. Observation also provides data that are fundamental for evaluating, refining and initializing the models that predict how the climate system will vary over the months and seasons ahead, and that project how climate will change in the longer term under different assumptions concerning greenhouse gas emissions and other human influences. Long-term observational records have enabled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to deliver the message that warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. As the Earth's climate enters a new era, in which it is forced by human activities, as well as natural processes, it is critically important to sustain an observing system capable of detecting and documenting global climate variability and change over long periods of time. High-quality climate observations are required to assess the present state of the ocean, cryosphere, atmosphere and land and place them in context with the past. The global observing system for climate is not a single, centrally managed observing system. Rather, it is a composite "system of systems" comprising a set of climate-relevant observing, data-management, product-generation and data-distribution systems. Data from satellites underpin many of the Essential Climate Variables(ECVs), and their historic and contemporary archives are a key part of the global climate observing system. In general, the ECVs will be provided in the form of climate data records that are created by processing and archiving time series of satellite and in situ measurements. Early satellite data records are very valuable because they provide unique observations in many regions which were not otherwise observed during the 1970s and which can be assimilated in atmospheric reanalyses and so extend the satellite climate data records back in time.

Large differences in reanalyses of diabatic heating in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, J. S.; Fueglistaler, S.

2013-09-01

We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) as simulated by five reanalysis models: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), European Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis and Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/JCDAS), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis 1. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including latent heating, heating due to radiative transfer, and heating due to parameterised vertical mixing. We describe and discuss the most pronounced differences. Discrepancies in latent heating reflect continuing difficulties in representing moist convection in models. Although these discrepancies may be expected, their magnitude is still disturbing. We pay particular attention to discrepancies in radiative heating (which may be surprising given the strength of observational constraints on temperature and tropospheric water vapour) and discrepancies in heating due to turbulent mixing (which have received comparatively little attention). The largest differences in radiative heating in the tropical UTLS are attributable to differences in cloud radiative heating, but important systematic differences are present even in the absence of clouds. Local maxima in heating and cooling due to parameterised turbulent mixing occur in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause.

Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gulev, S.K.; Zolina, O.; Grigoriev, S. [AN SSSR, Moscow (USSR). Inst. Okeanologii

2001-07-01

The winter climatology of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity was derived from 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period from 1958 to 1999, using software which provides improved accuracy in cyclone identification in comparison to numerical tracking schemes. Cyclone characteristics over the Kuroshio and Gulfstream are very different to those over continental North America and the Arctic. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere cyclones shows secular and decadal-scale changes in cyclone frequency, intensity, lifetime and deepening rates. The western Pacific and Atlantic are characterized by an increase in cyclone intensity and deepening during the 42-year period, although the eastern Pacific and continental North America demonstrate opposite tendencies in most cyclone characteristics. There is an increase of the number of cyclones in the Arctic and in the western Pacific and a downward tendency over the Gulf Stream and subpolar Pacific. Decadal scale variability in cyclone activity over the Atlantic and Pacific exhibits south-north dipole-like patterns. Atlantic and Pacific cyclone activity associated with the NAO and PNA is analyzed. Atlantic cyclone frequency demonstrates a high correlation with NAO and reflects the NAO shift in the mid 1970s, associated with considerable changes in European storm tracks. The PNA is largely linked to the eastern Pacific cyclone frequencies, and controls cyclone activity over the Gulf region and the North American coast during the last two decades. Assessment of the accuracy of the results and comparison with those derived using numerical algorithms, shows that biases inherent in numerical procedures are not negligible. (orig.)

Large differences in reanalyses of diabatic heating in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. S. Wright

2013-09-01

Full Text Available We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT and lower stratosphere (LS as simulated by five reanalysis models: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA, European Reanalysis (ERA-Interim, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis and Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/JCDAS, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including latent heating, heating due to radiative transfer, and heating due to parameterised vertical mixing. We describe and discuss the most pronounced differences. Discrepancies in latent heating reflect continuing difficulties in representing moist convection in models. Although these discrepancies may be expected, their magnitude is still disturbing. We pay particular attention to discrepancies in radiative heating (which may be surprising given the strength of observational constraints on temperature and tropospheric water vapour and discrepancies in heating due to turbulent mixing (which have received comparatively little attention. The largest differences in radiative heating in the tropical UTLS are attributable to differences in cloud radiative heating, but important systematic differences are present even in the absence of clouds. Local maxima in heating and cooling due to parameterised turbulent mixing occur in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause.

Impact of global warming on cyclonic storms over north Indian Ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Sankar, S.

., Reynolds, R., Roy, Jenne. & Dennis, Joseph., The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 77(3)(1996) 437 – 471. 7 Smith, T.M. & Reynolds, R.W., Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854-1997), J. Climate, 17(2004) 2466...

Global projections of extreme sea levels in view of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.

2017-12-01

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.

Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

2011-05-15

In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

Daily modes of South Asian summer monsoon variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Krishnamurthy, V. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

2011-05-15

The leading modes of daily variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the climate forecast system (CFS), a coupled general circulation model, of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) are examined. The space-time structures of the daily modes are obtained by applying multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on the daily anomalies of rainfall. Relations of the daily modes to intraseasonal and interannual variability of the monsoon are investigated. The CFS has three intraseasonal oscillations with periods around 106, 57 and 30 days with a combined variance of 7%. The 106-day mode has spatial structure and propagation features similar to the northeastward propagating 45-day mode in the observations except for its longer period. The 57-day mode, despite being in the same time scale as of the observations has poor eastward propagation. The 30-day mode is northwestward propagating and is similar to its observational counterpart. The 106-day mode is specific to the model and should not be mistaken for a new scale of variability in observations. The dominant interannual signal is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and, unlike in the observations, has maximum variance in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was not obtained as a separate mode in the rainfall, the ENSO signal has good correlations with the dipole variability, which, therefore, indicates the dominance of ENSO in the model. The interannual variability is largely determined by the ENSO signal over the regions where it has maximum variance. The interannual variability of the intraseasonal oscillations is smaller in comparison. (orig.)

A mechanism for land-ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fasullo, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, CAS/NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

2012-09-15

A central paradox of the global monsoon record involves reported decreases in rainfall over land during an era in which the global hydrologic cycle is both expected and observed to intensify. It is within this context that this work develops a physical basis for both interpreting the observed record and anticipating changes in the monsoons in a warming climate while bolstering the concept of the global monsoon in the context of shared feedbacks. The global-land monsoon record across multiple reanalyses is first assessed. Trends that in other studies have been taken as real are shown to likely be spurious as a result of changes in the assimilated data streams both prior to and during the satellite era. Nonetheless, based on satellite estimates, robust increases in monsoon rainfall over ocean do exist and a physical basis for this land-ocean contrast remains lacking. To address the contrast's causes, simulated trends are therefore assessed. While projections of total rainfall are inconsistent across models, the robust land-ocean contrast identified in observations is confirmed. A feedback mechanism is proposed rooted in the facts that land areas warm disproportionately relative to ocean, and onshore flow is the chief source of monsoonal moisture. Reductions in lower tropospheric relative humidity over land domains are therefore inevitable and these have direct consequences for the monsoonal convective environment including an increase in the lifting condensation level and a shift in the distribution of convection generally towards less frequent and potentially more intense events. The mechanism is interpreted as an important modulating influence on the ''rich-get-richer'' mechanism. Caveats for regional monsoons exist and are discussed. (orig.)

Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

KAUST Repository

Jangid, Buddhi Prakash

2017-02-24

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

KAUST Repository

Jangid, Buddhi Prakash; Kumar, Prashant; Attada, Raju; Kumar, Raj

2017-01-01

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

Rain Characteristics and Large-Scale Environments of Precipitation Objects with Extreme Rain Volumes from TRMM Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K M.; Liu, Chuntao

2013-01-01

This study adopts a "precipitation object" approach by using 14 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Feature (PF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data to study rainfall structure and environmental factors associated with extreme heavy rain events. Characteristics of instantaneous extreme volumetric PFs are examined and compared to those of intermediate and small systems. It is found that instantaneous PFs exhibit a much wider scale range compared to the daily gridded precipitation accumulation range. The top 1% of the rainiest PFs contribute over 55% of total rainfall and have 2 orders of rain volume magnitude greater than those of the median PFs. We find a threshold near the top 10% beyond which the PFs grow exponentially into larger, deeper, and colder rain systems. NCEP reanalyses show that midlevel relative humidity and total precipitable water increase steadily with increasingly larger PFs, along with a rapid increase of 500 hPa upward vertical velocity beyond the top 10%. This provides the necessary moisture convergence to amplify and sustain the extreme events. The rapid increase in vertical motion is associated with the release of convective available potential energy (CAPE) in mature systems, as is evident in the increase in CAPE of PFs up to 10% and the subsequent dropoff. The study illustrates distinct stages in the development of an extreme rainfall event including: (1) a systematic buildup in large-scale temperature and moisture, (2) a rapid change in rain structure, (3) explosive growth of the PF size, and (4) a release of CAPE before the demise of the event.

High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. G. Donat

2011-10-01

Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

Diagnosis and Quantification of Climatic Sensitivity of Carbon Fluxes in Ensemble Global Ecosystem Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R.

2011-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystem models are primary scientific tools to extrapolate our understanding of ecosystem functioning from point observations to global scales as well as from the past climatic conditions into the future. However, no model is nearly perfect and there are often considerable structural uncertainties existing between different models. Ensemble model experiments thus become a mainstream approach in evaluating the current status of global carbon cycle and predicting its future changes. A key task in such applications is to quantify the sensitivity of the simulated carbon fluxes to climate variations and changes. Here we develop a systematic framework to address this question solely by analyzing the inputs and the outputs from the models. The principle of our approach is to assume the long-term (~30 years) average of the inputs/outputs as a quasi-equlibrium of the climate-vegetation system while treat the anomalies of carbon fluxes as responses to climatic disturbances. In this way, the corresponding relationships can be largely linearized and analyzed using conventional time-series techniques. This method is used to characterize three major aspects of the vegetation models that are mostly important to global carbon cycle, namely the primary production, the biomass dynamics, and the ecosystem respiration. We apply this analytical framework to quantify the climatic sensitivity of an ensemble of models including CASA, Biome-BGC, LPJ as well as several other DGVMs from previous studies, all driven by the CRU-NCEP climate dataset. The detailed analysis results are reported in this study.

Globally-Applicable Predictive Wildfire Model   a Temporal-Spatial GIS Based Risk Analysis Using Data Driven Fuzzy Logic Functions

Science.gov (United States)

van den Dool, G.

2017-11-01

This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal-spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second). The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSR), for 1981 to 2011

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was designed and executed as a global, high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to...

Estimation of Atmospheric Methane Surface Fluxes Using a Global 3-D Chemical Transport Model

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y.; Prinn, R.

2003-12-01

Accurate determination of atmospheric methane surface fluxes is an important and challenging problem in global biogeochemical cycles. We use inverse modeling to estimate annual, seasonal, and interannual CH4 fluxes between 1996 and 2001. The fluxes include 7 time-varying seasonal (3 wetland, rice, and 3 biomass burning) and 3 steady aseasonal (animals/waste, coal, and gas) global processes. To simulate atmospheric methane, we use the 3-D chemical transport model MATCH driven by NCEP reanalyzed observed winds at a resolution of T42 ( ˜2.8° x 2.8° ) in the horizontal and 28 levels (1000 - 3 mb) in the vertical. By combining existing datasets of individual processes, we construct a reference emissions field that represents our prior guess of the total CH4 surface flux. For the methane sink, we use a prescribed, annually-repeating OH field scaled to fit methyl chloroform observations. MATCH is used to produce both the reference run from the reference emissions, and the time-dependent sensitivities that relate individual emission processes to observations. The observational data include CH4 time-series from ˜15 high-frequency (in-situ) and ˜50 low-frequency (flask) observing sites. Most of the high-frequency data, at a time resolution of 40-60 minutes, have not previously been used in global scale inversions. In the inversion, the high-frequency data generally have greater weight than the weekly flask data because they better define the observational monthly means. The Kalman Filter is used as the optimal inversion technique to solve for emissions between 1996-2001. At each step in the inversion, new monthly observations are utilized and new emissions estimates are produced. The optimized emissions represent deviations from the reference emissions that lead to a better fit to the observations. The seasonal processes are optimized for each month, and contain the methane seasonality and interannual variability. The aseasonal processes, which are less variable, are

The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ashfaqur Rahman, M.; Almazroui, Mansour; Nazrul Islam, M.; O'Brien, Enda; Yousef, Ahmed Elsayed

2018-02-01

A new version of the Community Land Model (CLM) was introduced to the Saudi King Abdulaziz University Atmospheric Global Climate Model (Saudi-KAU AGCM) for better land surface component representation, and so to enhance climate simulation. CLM replaced the original land surface model (LSM) in Saudi-KAU AGCM, with the aim of simulating more accurate land surface fluxes globally, but especially over the Arabian Peninsula. To evaluate the performance of Saudi-KAU AGCM, simulations were completed with CLM and LSM for the period 1981-2010. In comparison with LSM, CLM generates surface air temperature values that are closer to National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The global annual averages of land surface air temperature are 9.51, 9.52, and 9.57 °C for NCEP, CLM, and LSM respectively, although the same atmospheric radiative and surface forcing from Saudi-KAU AGCM are provided to both LSM and CLM at every time step. The better temperature simulations when using CLM can be attributed to the more comprehensive plant functional type and hierarchical tile approach to the land cover type in CLM, along with better parameterization of upward land surface fluxes compared to LSM. At global scale, CLM exhibits smaller annual and seasonal mean biases of temperature with respect to NCEP data. Moreover, at regional scale, CLM demonstrates reasonable seasonal and annual mean temperature over the Arabian Peninsula as compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data. Finally, CLM generated better matches to single point-wise observations of surface air temperature and surface fluxes for some case studies.

Multi-model global assessment of subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Deflorio, M. J.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that are characterized by long, narrow plumes of water vapor transport. They are most often observed in the midlatitudes near climatologically active storm track regions. Because of their frequent association with floods, landslides, and other hydrological impacts on society, there is significant incentive at the intersection of academic research, water management, and policymaking to understand the skill with which state-of-the-art operational weather models can predict ARs weeks-to-months in advance. We use the newly assembled Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database, which includes extensive hindcast records of eleven operational weather models, to assess global prediction skill of atmospheric rivers on S2S timescales. We develop a metric to assess AR skill that is suitable for S2S timescales by counting the total number of AR days which occur over each model and observational grid cell during a 2-week time window. This "2-week AR occurrence" metric is suitable for S2S prediction skill assessment because it does not consider discrete hourly or daily AR objects, but rather a smoothed representation of AR occurrence over a longer period of time. Our results indicate that several of the S2S models, especially the ECMWF model, show useful prediction skill in the 2-week forecast window, with significant interannual variation in some regions. We also present results from an experimental forecast of S2S AR prediction skill using the ECMWF and NCEP models.

A simple model to estimate deposition based on a statistical reassessment of global fallout data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Palsson, S.E.; Howard, B.J.; Bergan, T.D.

2013-01-01

. A correlation was identified between fallout deposition and precipitation and an uneven distribution with latitude. In this study, the available data from 1954 to 1976 for 90Sr and 137Cs were reanalysed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and logarithmically transformed values of the monthly deposition...

Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Gruber

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Permafrost underlies much of Earth's surface and interacts with climate, eco-systems and human systems. It is a complex phenomenon controlled by climate and (sub- surface properties and reacts to change with variable delay. Heterogeneity and sparse data challenge the modeling of its spatial distribution. Currently, there is no data set to adequately inform global studies of permafrost. The available data set for the Northern Hemisphere is frequently used for model evaluation, but its quality and consistency are difficult to assess. Here, a global model of permafrost extent and dataset of permafrost zonation are presented and discussed, extending earlier studies by including the Southern Hemisphere, by consistent data and methods, by attention to uncertainty and scaling. Established relationships between air temperature and the occurrence of permafrost are re-formulated into a model that is parametrized using published estimates. It is run with a high-resolution (<1 km global elevation data and air temperatures based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis and CRU TS 2.0. The resulting data provide more spatial detail and a consistent extrapolation to remote regions, while aggregated values resemble previous studies. The estimated uncertainties affect regional patterns and aggregate number, and provide interesting insight. The permafrost area, i.e. the actual surface area underlain by permafrost, north of 60° S is estimated to be 13–18 × 10⁶ km² or 9–14 % of the exposed land surface. The global permafrost area including Antarctic and sub-sea permafrost is estimated to be 16–21 × 10⁶ km². The global permafrost region, i.e. the exposed land surface below which some permafrost can be expected, is estimated to be 22 ± 3 × 10⁶ km². A large proportion of this exhibits considerable topography and spatially-discontinuous permafrost, underscoring the importance of attention to scaling issues

Global Climatology of the Coastal Low-Level Wind Jets using different Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Daniela C. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Semedo, Alvaro; Cardoso, Rita M.

2016-04-01

Coastal Low-Level Jets (henceforth referred to as "coastal jets" or simply as CLLJ) are low-tropospheric mesoscale wind features, with wind speed maxima confined to the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), typically bellow 1km. Coastal jets occur in the eastern flank of the semi-permanent subtropical mid-latitude high pressure systems, along equatorward eastern boundary currents, due to a large-scale synoptic forcing. The large-scale synoptic forcing behind CLLJ occurrences is a high pressure system over the ocean and a thermal low inland. This results in coastal parallel winds that are the consequence of the geostrophic adjustment. CLLJ are found along the California (California-Oregon) and the Canary (Iberia and Northeastern Africa) currents in the Northern Hemisphere, and along the Peru-Humboldt (Peru-Chile), Benguela (Namibia) and Western Australia (West Australia) currents in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Arabian Sea (Oman CLLJ), the interaction between the high pressure over the Indian Ocean in summer (Summer Indian Monsoon) and the Somali (also known as Findlater) Jet forces a coastal jet wind feature off the southeast coast of Oman. Coastal jets play an important role in the regional climates of the mid-latitude western continental regions. The decrease of the sea surface temperatures (SST) along the coast due to upwelling lowers the evaporation over the ocean and the coast parallel winds prevents the advection of marine air inshore. The feedback processes between the CLLJ and upwelling play a crucial role in the regional climate, namely, promoting aridity since the parallel flow prevents the intrusion of moisture inland, and increasing fish stocks through the transport of rich nutrient cold water from the bottom. In this study, the global coastal low-level wind jets are identified and characterized using an ensemble of three reanalysis, the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the NCEP Climate Forecast

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona

2016-11-01

Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) that covers the meteorological satellite era (1980-present) and it is being updated in delayed time mode. The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (1/4° horizontal resolution and 50 vertical levels) and consists of a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system, a surface nudging and a bias correction scheme. With respect to the previous version (v4), C-GLORSv5 contains a number of improvements. In particular, background- and observation-error covariances have been retuned, allowing a flow-dependent inflation in the globally averaged background-error variance. An additional constraint on the Arctic sea-ice thickness was introduced, leading to a realistic ice volume evolution. Finally, the bias correction scheme and the initialization strategy were retuned. Results document that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects, especially in representing the variability of global heat content and associated steric sea level in the last decade, the top 80 m ocean temperature biases and root mean square errors, and the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation; slight worsening in the high-latitude salinity and deep ocean temperature emerge though, providing the motivation for further tuning of the reanalysis system. The dataset is available in NetCDF format at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.857995.

Towards a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for Europe: evaluation of precipitation from experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liselotte Bach

2016-11-01

Full Text Available A new development in the field of reanalyses is the incorporation of uncertainty estimation capabilities. We have developed a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for the CORDEX-EUR11 domain that is based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO at a 12-km grid spacing. The lateral boundary conditions of all ensemble members are provided by the global reanalysis ERA-Interim. In the basic implementation of the system, uncertainties due to observation errors are estimated. Atmospheric assimilation of conventional observations perturbed by means of random samples of observation error yields estimates of the reanalysis uncertainty conditioned to observation errors. The data assimilation employed is a new scheme based on observation nudging that we denote ensemble nudging. The lower boundary of the atmosphere is regularly updated by external snow depth, sea surface temperature and soil moisture analyses. One of the most important purposes of reanalyses is the estimation of so-called essential climate variables. For regional reanalyses, precipitation has been identified as one of the essential climate variables that are potentially better represented than in other climate data sets. For that reason, we assess the representation of precipitation in our system in a pilot study. Based on two experiments, each of which extends over one month, we conduct a preliminary comparison to the global reanalysis ERA-Interim, a dynamical downscaling of the latter and the high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6. In a next step, we assess our reanalysis system's probabilistic capabilities versus the ECMWF-EPS in terms of six-hourly precipitation sums. The added value of our probabilistic regional reanalysis system motivates the current production of a 5-year-long test reanalysis COSMO-EN-REA12 in the framework of the FP7-funded project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses (UERRA.

An assessment of the wind re-analyses in the modelling of an extreme sea state in the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Akpinar, Adem; Ponce de León, S.

2016-03-01

This study aims at an assessment of wind re-analyses for modelling storms in the Black Sea. A wind-wave modelling system (Simulating WAve Nearshore, SWAN) is applied to the Black Sea basin and calibrated with buoy data for three recent re-analysis wind sources, namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) during an extreme wave condition that occurred in the north eastern part of the Black Sea. The SWAN model simulations are carried out for default and tuning settings for deep water source terms, especially whitecapping. Performances of the best model configurations based on calibration with buoy data are discussed using data from the JASON2, TOPEX-Poseidon, ENVISAT and GFO satellites. The SWAN model calibration shows that the best configuration is obtained with Janssen and Komen formulations with whitecapping coefficient (Cds) equal to 1.8e-5 for wave generation by wind and whitecapping dissipation using ERA-Interim. In addition, from the collocated SWAN results against the satellite records, the best configuration is determined to be the SWAN using the CFSR winds. Numerical results, thus show that the accuracy of a wave forecast will depend on the quality of the wind field and the ability of the SWAN model to simulate the waves under extreme wind conditions in fetch limited wave conditions.

Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Zhijin [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sha, Feng [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Liu, Yangang [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Toto, Tami [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Vogelmann, Andrew [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

2016-02-02

This five-year award supports the project “Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements (FASTER)”. The goal of this project is to produce accurate, consistent and comprehensive data sets for initializing both single column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs) using data assimilation. A multi-scale three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (MS-3DVAR) has been implemented. This MS-3DVAR system is built on top of WRF/GSI. The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system is an operational data assimilation system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This MS-3DVAR is further enhanced by the incorporation of a land surface 3DVAR scheme and a comprehensive aerosol 3DVAR scheme. The data assimilation implementation focuses in the ARM SGP region. ARM measurements are assimilated along with other available satellite and radar data. Reanalyses are then generated for a few selected period of time. This comprehensive data assimilation system has also been employed for other ARM-related applications.

Improvement of global and regional mean sea level derived from satellite altimetry multi missions

Science.gov (United States)

Ablain, M.; Faugere, Y.; Larnicol, G.; Picot, N.; Cazenave, A.; Benveniste, J.

2012-04-01

With the satellite altimetry missions, the global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993. 'Verification' phases, during which the satellites follow each other in close succession (Topex/Poseidon--Jason-1, then Jason-1--Jason-2), help to link up these different missions by precisely determining any bias between them. Envisat, ERS-1 and ERS-2 are also used, after being adjusted on these reference missions, in order to compute Mean Sea Level at high latitudes (higher than 66°N and S), and also to improve spatial resolution by combining all these missions together. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 provide a global rate of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from + 8 mm/yr to - 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend unceratainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in the frame of the SALP project (supported by CNES) and Sea-level Climate Change Initiative project (supported by ESA), strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections

Rainy Days in the New Arctic: A Comprehensive Look at Precipitation from 8 Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Boisvert, L.; Webster, M.; Petty, A.; Markus, T.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic plays an important role in the fresh water budget, and is the primary control of snow accumulation on sea ice. However, Arctic precipitation from reanalysis is highly uncertain due to differences in the atmospheric physics and use/approaches of data assimilation and sea ice concentrations across the different products. More specifically, yearly cumulative precipitation in some regions can vary by 100-150 mm across reanalyses. This creates problems for those modeling snow depth on sea ice, specifically for use in deriving sea ice thickness from satellite altimetry. In recent years, this new Arctic has become warmer and wetter, and evaporation from the ice-free ocean has been increasing, which leads to the question: is more precipitation falling and is more of this precipitation rain? This could pose a big problem for model and remote sensing applications and studies those modeling snow accumulation because rain events will can melt the existing snow pack, reduce surface albedo, and modify the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux via snow densification. In this work we compare precipitation (both snow and rain) from 8 different reanalysis: MERRA, MERRA2, NCEP-R1, NCEP-R2, ERA-Interim, ERA-5, ASR and JRA-55. We examine the annual, seasonal, and regional differences and compare with buoy data to assess discrepancies between products during observed snowfall and rainfall events. Magnitudes and frequencies of these precipitation events are evaluated, as well as the "residual drizzle" between reanalyzes. Lastly, we will look at whether the frequency and magnitude of "rainy days" in the Arctic have been changing over recent decades.

An Assessment of the Subseasonal Forecast Performance in the Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

Science.gov (United States)

Sinsky, E.; Zhu, Y.; Li, W.; Guan, H.; Melhauser, C.

2017-12-01

Optimal forecast quality is crucial for the preservation of life and property. Improving monthly forecast performance over both the tropics and extra-tropics requires attention to various physical aspects such as the representation of the underlying SST, model physics and the representation of the model physics uncertainty for an ensemble forecast system. This work focuses on the impact of stochastic physics, SST and the convection scheme on forecast performance for the sub-seasonal scale over the tropics and extra-tropics with emphasis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A 2-year period is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Three experiments with different configurations than the operational GEFS were performed to illustrate the impact of the stochastic physics, SST and convection scheme. These experiments are compared against a control experiment (CTL) which consists of the operational GEFS but its integration is extended from 16 to 35 days. The three configurations are: 1) SPs, which uses a Stochastically Perturbed Physics Tendencies (SPPT), Stochastic Perturbed Humidity (SHUM) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB); 2) SPs+SST_bc, which uses a combination of SPs and a bias-corrected forecast SST from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2); and 3) SPs+SST_bc+SA_CV, which combines SPs, a bias-corrected forecast SST and a scale aware convection scheme. When comparing to the CTL experiment, SPs shows substantial improvement. The MJO skill has improved by about 4 lead days during the 2-year period. Improvement is also seen over the extra-tropics due to the updated stochastic physics, where there is a 3.1% and a 4.2% improvement during weeks 3 and 4 over the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, respectively. Improvement is also seen when the bias-corrected CFSv2 SST is combined with SPs. Additionally, forecast performance enhances when the scale aware

Statistical evaluation of the performance of gridded monthly precipitation products from reanalysis data, satellite estimates, and merged analyses over China

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Xueliang; Nie, Suping; Deng, Weitao; Cao, Weihua

2018-04-01

In this study, we compared the following four different gridded monthly precipitation products: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction version 2 (NCEP-2) reanalysis data, the satellite-based Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) data, the merged satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, and the merged satellite-gauge-model data from the Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). We evaluated the performances of these products using monthly precipitation observations spanning the period of January 2003 to December 2013 from a dense, national, rain gauge network in China. Our assessment involved several statistical techniques, including spatial pattern, temporal variation, bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (CC) analysis. The results show that NCEP-2, GPCP, and BMEP generally overestimate monthly precipitation at the national scale and CMORPH underestimates it. However, all of the datasets successfully characterized the northwest to southeast increase in the monthly precipitation over China. Because they include precipitation gauge information from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) network, GPCP and BMEP have much smaller biases, lower RMSEs, and higher CCs than NCEP-2 and CMORPH. When the seasonal and regional variations are considered, NCEP-2 has a larger error over southern China during the summer. CMORPH poorly reproduces the magnitude of the precipitation over southeastern China and the temporal correlation over western and northwestern China during all seasons. BMEP has a lower RMSE and higher CC than GPCP over eastern and southern China, where the station network is dense. In contrast, BMEP has a lower CC than GPCP over western and northwestern China, where the gauge network is relatively sparse.

Characterizing hydrological activities over Yangtze River basin using the new HUST-Grace2016 model, MODIS, and NCEP/NCAR data

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, H.; Luo, Z.; Tangdamrongsub, N.; He, L.

2017-12-01

Accurate TWS estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resource over the Yangtze River basin. This study exploits the TWS observation from the new gravity model, HUST-Grace06, which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the hydrological activities over the Yangtze River basin. The approach includes the effective noise reduction and the leakage error mitigation based on forward modeling. The HUST-Grace06 derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the Yangtze River basin. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is incorporated with GRACE in the exploration of the climate induced hydrological activities. The comparison between GRACE and the MODIS-derived NDVI data is also conducted to investigate their connection regarding temporal and spatial distribution. The analysis suggests that the terrestrial reflectance data can be used to represent the TWS information. Importantly, such information can be used to fill the missing data in case of the early termination of GRACE or during the prelaunch of the GRACE Follow-On mission.

Optimal estimation of the surface fluxes of methyl chloride using a 3-D global chemical transport model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Xiao

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Methyl chloride (CH₃Cl is a chlorine-containing trace gas in the atmosphere contributing significantly to stratospheric ozone depletion. Large uncertainties in estimates of its source and sink magnitudes and temporal and spatial variations currently exist. GEIA inventories and other bottom-up emission estimates are used to construct a priori maps of the surface fluxes of CH₃Cl. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH, driven by NCEP interannually varying meteorological data, is then used to simulate CH₃Cl mole fractions and quantify the time series of sensitivities of the mole fractions at each measurement site to the surface fluxes of various regional and global sources and sinks. We then implement the Kalman filter (with the unit pulse response method to estimate the surface fluxes on regional/global scales with monthly resolution from January 2000 to December 2004. High frequency observations from the AGAGE, SOGE, NIES, and NOAA/ESRL HATS in situ networks and low frequency observations from the NOAA/ESRL HATS flask network are used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes. The inversion results indicate global total emissions around 4100 ± 470 Gg yr⁻¹ with very large emissions of 2200 ± 390 Gg yr⁻¹ from tropical plants, which turn out to be the largest single source in the CH₃Cl budget. Relative to their a priori annual estimates, the inversion increases global annual fungal and tropical emissions, and reduces the global oceanic source. The inversion implies greater seasonal and interannual oscillations of the natural sources and sink of CH₃Cl compared to the a priori. The inversion also reflects the strong effects of the 2002/2003 globally widespread heat waves and droughts on global emissions from tropical plants, biomass burning and salt marshes, and on the soil sink.

Validation of the space fields and the median zonal of the temperature of the air in surface and of the precipitation in Colombia, simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

2001-01-01

This work presents an analysis of the basic fields of the surface temperature and the precipitation for the national territory, from two sources of information: the data originated by the national meteorological network and the generated ones at world-wide level by means of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis project for the assimilation of data coming from diverse world-wide networks. With them reference scenes are constructed to validate the CCM3 model which is used like tool for the projection of the climatic change in Colombia

Seasonal prediction and predictability of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 reforecasts

Science.gov (United States)

He, Qiong; Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Renhe; Zhang, Ruonan

2018-01-01

The spring snow water equivalent (SWE) over Eurasia plays an important role in East Asian and Indian monsoon rainfall. This study evaluates the seasonal prediction capability of NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) retrospective forecasts (1983-2010) for the Eurasian spring SWE. The results demonstrate that CFSv2 is able to represent the climatological distribution of the observed Eurasian spring SWE with a lead time of 1-3 months, with the maximum SWE occurring over western Siberia and Northeastern Europe. For a longer lead time, the SWE is exaggerated in CFSv2 because the start of snow ablation in CFSv2 lags behind that of the observation, and the simulated snowmelt rate is less than that in the observation. Generally, CFSv2 can simulate the interannual variations of the Eurasian spring SWE 1-5 months ahead of time but with an exaggerated magnitude. Additionally, the downtrend in CFSv2 is also overestimated. Because the initial conditions (ICs) are related to the corresponding simulation results significantly, the robust interannual variability and the downtrend in the ICs are most likely the causes for these biases. Moreover, CFSv2 exhibits a high potential predictability for the Eurasian spring SWE, especially the spring SWE over Siberia, with a lead time of 1-5 months. For forecasts with lead times longer than 5 months, the model predictability gradually decreases mainly due to the rapid decrease in the model signal.

Effects of multilayer snow scheme on the simulation of snow: Offline Noah and coupled with NCEP CFSv2

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Subodh Kumar; Sujith, K.; Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam

2017-03-01

The Noah version 2.7.1 is a moderately complex land surface model (LSM), with a single layer snowpack, combined with vegetation and underlying soil layer. Many previous studies have pointed out biases in the simulation of snow, which may hinder the skill of a forecasting system coupled with the Noah. In order to improve the simulation of snow by the Noah, a multilayer snow scheme (up to a maximum of six layers) is introduced. As Noah is the land surface component of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the modified Noah is also coupled with the CFSv2. The offline LSM shows large improvements in the simulation of snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow cover area during snow season (October to June). CFSv2 with the modified Noah reveals a dramatic improvements in the simulation of snow depth and 2 m air temperature and moderate improvements in SWE. As suggested in the previous diagnostic and sensitivity study, improvements in the simulation of snow by CFSv2 have lead to the reduction in dry bias over the Indian subcontinent (by a maximum of 2 mm d-1). The multilayer snow scheme shows promising results in the simulation of snow as well as Indian summer monsoon rainfall and hence this development may be the part of the future version of the CFS.

Comparison of measured and simulated wind speed data in the North Atlantic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winterfeldt, J. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

2008-11-06

A systematic investigation and comparison of near-surface marine wind speed obtained from in situ and satellite observations, atmospheric reanalyses and regional atmospheric hindcasts with reanalysis driven regional climate models (RCMs) is presented for the eastern North Atlantic and the North Sea. Wind speed retrievals from two remote sensing data sets, namely QuikSCAT and the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS) data set, are found to give good representation of observed near-surface wind speed. The value of the root mean squared error (RMSE) for all co-located HOAPS and in situ wind speed data is 2 m/s, while it is 1.8 m/s for QuikSCAT demonstrating that QuikSCAT's mission requirement of providing wind speed with an RMSE of 2 m/s is met for the eastern North Atlantic and the North Sea. QuikSCAT shows a slightly better agreement with observed instantaneous wind speed and its frequency distribution than HOAPS. In contrast, HOAPS wind speed is available for a much longer period and is therefore the more suitable product for climatic studies or investigations of trends in wind speed. The capability of two state-of-the-art RCMs (with and without spectral nudging applied) to add value for surface marine wind fields in comparison to the reanalysis wind speed forcing is assessed by the comparison with in situ wind speed observations in the eastern North Atlantic in 1998. The comparison of the 10 m wind speed forecasts from the NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE-II reanalyses with in-situ observations demonstrates the implausibility of the latter forecast resulting in its non-consideration in the added value assessment. The added value is investigated for instantaneous wind speeds (relevant for case studies) and their frequency distribution (relevant for e.g., extreme value statistics and estimations of wind potential). The observations are discriminated into groups according to their proximity to land and assimilation status, meaning whether

Net sea–air CO2 flux uncertainties in the Bay of Biscay based on the choice of wind speed products and gas transfer parameterizations

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P. Otero

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The estimation of sea–air CO2 fluxes is largely dependent on wind speed through the gas transfer velocity parameterization. In this paper, we quantify uncertainties in the estimation of the CO2 uptake in the Bay of Biscay resulting from the use of different sources of wind speed such as three different global reanalysis meteorological models (NCEP/NCAR 1, NCEP/DOE 2 and ERA-Interim, one high-resolution regional forecast model (HIRLAM-AEMet, winds derived under the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP project, and QuikSCAT winds in combination with some of the most widely used gas transfer velocity parameterizations. Results show that net CO2 flux estimations during an entire seasonal cycle (September 2002–September 2003 may vary by a factor of ~ 3 depending on the selected wind speed product and the gas exchange parameterization, with the highest impact due to the last one. The comparison of satellite- and model-derived winds with observations at buoys advises against the systematic overestimation of NCEP-2 and the underestimation of NCEP-1. In the coastal region, the presence of land and the time resolution are the main constraints of QuikSCAT, which turns CCMP and ERA-Interim in the preferred options.

The Sensitivity of WRF Daily Summertime Simulations over West Africa to Alternative Parameterizations. Part 1: African Wave Circulation

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Noble, Erik; Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

2014-01-01

The performance of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a West African regional-atmospheric model is evaluated. The study tests the sensitivity of WRF-simulated vorticity maxima associated with African easterly waves to 64 combinations of alternative parameterizations in a series of simulations in September. In all, 104 simulations of 12-day duration during 11 consecutive years are examined. The 64 combinations combine WRF parameterizations of cumulus convection, radiation transfer, surface hydrology, and PBL physics. Simulated daily and mean circulation results are validated against NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2. Precipitation is considered in a second part of this two-part paper. A wide range of 700-hPa vorticity validation scores demonstrates the influence of alternative parameterizations. The best WRF performers achieve correlations against reanalysis of 0.40-0.60 and realistic amplitudes of spatiotemporal variability for the 2006 focus year while a parallel-benchmark simulation by the NASA Regional Model-3 (RM3) achieves higher correlations, but less realistic spatiotemporal variability. The largest favorable impact on WRF-vorticity validation is achieved by selecting the Grell-Devenyi cumulus convection scheme, resulting in higher correlations against reanalysis than simulations using the Kain-Fritch convection. Other parameterizations have less-obvious impact, although WRF configurations incorporating one surface model and PBL scheme consistently performed poorly. A comparison of reanalysis circulation against two NASA radiosonde stations confirms that both reanalyses represent observations well enough to validate the WRF results. Validation statistics for optimized WRF configurations simulating the parallel period during 10 additional years are less favorable than for 2006.

Influences of tropical-extratropical interaction on the multidecadal AMOC variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K.; Klinger, Barry [Gorge Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Xue, Yan [National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

2012-08-15

We have examined the mechanisms of a multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in a 335-year simulation of the Climate Forecast System (CFS), the climate prediction model developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Both the mean and seasonal cycle of the AMOC in the CFS are generally consistent with observation-based estimates with a maximum northward volume transport of 16 Sv (10{sup 6} m{sup 3}/s) near 35 N at 1.2 km. The annual mean AMOC shows an intermittent quasi 30-year oscillation. Its dominant structure includes a deep anomalous overturning cell (referred to as the anomalous AMOC) with amplitude of 0.6 Sv near 35 N and an anomalous subtropical cell (STC) of shallow overturning spanning across the equator. The mechanism for the oscillation includes a positive feedback between the anomalous AMOC and surface wind stress anomalies in mid-latitudes and a negative feedback between the anomalous STC and AMOC. A strong AMOC is associated with warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centered near 45 N, which generates an anticyclonic easterly surface wind anomaly. This anticyclonic wind anomaly enhances the regional downwelling and reinforces the anomalous AMOC. In the mean time, a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback extends the warm SSTA to the tropics and induces a cyclonic wind stress anomaly there, which drives a tropical upwelling and weakens the STC north of the equator. The STC anomaly, in turn, drives a cold upper ocean heat content anomaly (HCA) in the northern tropical Atlantic and weakens the meridional heat transport from the tropics to the mid-latitude through an anomalous southward western boundary current. The anomalous STC transports cold HCA from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes, weakening the mid-latitude deep overturning. (orig.)

Development of a GSI-Based, 2D-VAR Data Assimilation System for Operational Wave Guidance at the National Weather Service

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Flampouris, S.; Alves, H.; Pondeca, M.

2016-02-01

The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) provides wave guidance to the National Weather Service (NWS) via a suite of operational wave models, which include three global-scale systems. An approach is being developed to include data assimilation into the global wave models using a 2D version of NCEP's grid-point statistical interpolation (2D-GSI), as described in Derber & Rosatti (1989), and Pondeca et al (2011). As a first step to the global implementation of a wave DA system, a prototype is being developed that will consist of adding wave heights as an analysis variable to the operational Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA), which provides hourly analyses of several near sea-surface meteorological parameters, and supports a variety of applications within the NWS. The core of the RTMA is a 2D version of the GSI, which is a variational data assimilation system, and the first guess for the wave-height analysis is provided by NCEP's global wave models. For the new application, the RTMA will be modified to reflect background error covariances consistent with wave-height fields for regional and nearshore applications. In addition, quality control modules for in situ and altimeter significant wave height have been developed and integrated into the system. The strengths and the performance of the 2D-GSI are illustrated with both in situ and satellite measurements of significant wave height in the NW Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. The validation of follows the typical cross-validation procedure of RTMA products, based on 10% of the observations, for a period of 15 days. The error statistics (mean, root-mean-square) of the wave-height analysis shows significant improvement, relative to the first guess.

Evaluation of CORDEX-Arctic daily precipitation and temperature-based climate indices over Canadian Arctic land areas

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Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Mailhot, Alain; Brown, Ross; Chaumont, Diane

2018-03-01

This study focuses on the evaluation of daily precipitation and temperature climate indices and extremes simulated by an ensemble of 12 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the ARCTIC-CORDEX experiment with surface observations in the Canadian Arctic from the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Dataset. Five global reanalyses products (ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA, CFSR and GMFD) are also included in the evaluation to assess their potential for RCM evaluation in data sparse regions. The study evaluated the means and annual anomaly distributions of indices over the 1980-2004 dataset overlap period. The results showed that RCM and reanalysis performance varied with the climate variables being evaluated. Most RCMs and reanalyses were able to simulate well climate indices related to mean air temperature and hot extremes over most of the Canadian Arctic, with the exception of the Yukon region where models displayed the largest biases related to topographic effects. Overall performance was generally poor for indices related to cold extremes. Likewise, only a few RCM simulations and reanalyses were able to provide realistic simulations of precipitation extreme indicators. The multi-reanalysis ensemble provided superior results to individual datasets for climate indicators related to mean air temperature and hot extremes, but not for other indicators. These results support the use of reanalyses as reference datasets for the evaluation of RCM mean air temperature and hot extremes over northern Canada, but not for cold extremes and precipitation indices.

A real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring

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Xue, Yan; Wen, C.; Kumar, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Fujii, Y.; Alves, O.; Martin, M.; Yang, X.; Vernieres, G.; Desportes, C.; Lee, T.; Ascione, I.; Gudgel, R.; Ishikawa, I.

2017-12-01

An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Baoqiang; Fan, Ke; Yang, Hongqing

2017-12-01

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the major climate system in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. In this study, we developed two schemes to improve the forecasting skill of the interannual variability of the EAWM index (EAWMI) using the interannual increment prediction method, also known as the DY method. First, we found that version 2 of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) showed higher skill in predicting the EAWMI in DY form than not. So, based on the advantage of the DY method, Scheme-I was obtained by adding the EAWMI DY predicted by CFSv2 to the observed EAWMI in the previous year. This scheme showed higher forecasting skill than CFSv2. Specifically, during 1983-2016, the temporal correlation coefficient between the Scheme-I-predicted and observed EAWMI was 0.47, exceeding the 99% significance level, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreased by 12%. The autumn Arctic sea ice and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are two important external forcing factors for the interannual variability of the EAWM. Therefore, a second (hybrid) prediction scheme, Scheme-II, was also developed. This scheme not only involved the EAWMI DY of CFSv2, but also the sea-ice concentration (SIC) observed the previous autumn in the Laptev and East Siberian seas and the temporal coefficients of the third mode of the North Pacific SST in DY form. We found that a negative SIC anomaly in the preceding autumn over the Laptev and the East Siberian seas could lead to a significant enhancement of the Aleutian low and East Asian westerly jet in the following winter. However, the intensity of the winter Siberian high was mainly affected by the third mode of the North Pacific autumn SST. Scheme-I and Scheme-II also showed higher predictive ability for the EAWMI in negative anomaly years compared to CFSv2. More importantly, the improvement in the prediction skill of the EAWMI by the new schemes, especially for Scheme-II, could enhance the forecasting skill of

Global temperature estimates in the troposphere and stratosphere: a validation study of COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 measurements

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P. Kishore

2009-02-01

Full Text Available This paper mainly focuses on the validation of temperature estimates derived with the newly launched Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC/Formosa Satellite 3 (FORMOSAT-3 system. The analysis is based on the radio occultation (RO data samples collected during the first year observation from April 2006 to April 2007. For the validation, we have used the operational stratospheric analyses including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Reanalysis (NCEP, the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25, and the United Kingdom Met Office (MetO data sets. Comparisons done in different formats reveal good agreement between the COSMIC and reanalysis outputs. Spatially, the largest deviations are noted in the polar latitudes, and height-wise, the tropical tropopause region noted the maximum differences (2–4 K. We found that among the three reanalysis data sets the NCEP data sets have the best resemblance with the COSMIC measurements.

Simple multiple regression model for long range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sadhuram, Y.; Murthy, T.V.R.

, Wang J, Roy J, Dennis J (1996) The NCEP=NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 77: 437–71 Kaplan A, Cane MA, Kushner Y, Clement AC, Blumenthal MB, Rajagopalan B (1998) Analysis of global sea-surface temperature: 1856–1991. J Geophys Res...

Caracterização de eventos extremos do nível do mar em Santos e sua correspondência com as reanálises do modelo do NCEP no sudoeste do Atlântico Sul Characterization of extreme sea level events in Santos and their correspondence with the NCEP model reanalysis in the southwest of the South Atlantic

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Ricardo Martins Campos

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar a influência atmosférica em escala sinótica sobre o oceano, para eventos extremos de maré meteorológica na costa sudeste brasileira. Para isso foram utilizados dados de elevação do nível do mar do Porto de Santos-SP, campos de vento e pressão em superfície das reanálises do modelo do NCEP abrangendo o Atlântico Sul, no período de 1951 a 1990. Foi possível identificar a variabilidade sazonal e o padrão de evolução dos sistemas atmosféricos associados aos eventos extremos, de grande relevância para aplicações em prognósticos e alertas a autoridades. O outono e inverno apresentaram a maior ocorrência de extremos positivos (40,2 % e 30,8 % respectivamente, enquanto a primavera e o inverno foram as estações com maior número de extremos negativos (47,2 % e 32,3 % respectivamente. Os resultados mostram que os casos mais importantes de sobre-elevação do nível do mar ocorrem com a evolução e persistência de sistemas de baixa pressão sobre o oceano, com ventos de sudoeste acima de 8 m/s, juntamente com o anticiclone da retaguarda posicionado sobre o continente.This work aims to identify the synoptic scale atmospheric influence over the ocean for extreme events of storm surges events in the Southeastern Brazilian coast. Time series of sea surface height at the Port of Santos as well as wind and surface pressure from the NCEP reanalysis model enclosing the South Atlantic, for period 1951-1990, were used. Seasonal variability and typical evolution of atmospheric systems were found to be associated with extreme events, very relevant for applications on prognostics and warnings to authorities. Autumn and winter are seasons with the highest occurrence of positive extreme events (40.2 % and 30.8 % respectively and the spring and winter are the ones with negative extreme events (47.2 % and 32.3 % respectively. The results show that the storm surges events depend on low pressure systems

Variability of the Surface Meteorological Fields over Eurasia for the Recent 30 Years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basharin, D.V.

2009-10-01

On the basis of the Japanese reanalysis (JRA25) dataset (1979-2008), linear trends, interannual to decadal variability of the sea level pressure (SLP), surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation fields over the Eurasian region have been studied. For the recent 30 years there are only significant positive linear trends of SAT in the northwestern part of the Eurasia/eastern Asia in winter and central Europe in summer. Areas with significant negative trends of SAT are absent. For precipitation field there are no significant tendencies except for the significantly positive area over England both in winter and in summer time. In winter, there are two areas with the opposite SLP tendencies: insignificant negative (to the north of 45-50N) and significant positive (to the south of 45-50N) one. These trends could be accompanied by the corresponding tendencies bee-hive reproduction and honey production in different regions of Ukraine. Space-time patterns of the first, second and third EOF of the fields under study are mainly determined by the NAO and in the less extent by the SO (only in spring-summer). It was found that the leading modes become more contributive over the Eurasia for the last 30 years comparing with NCEP data for the previous period (1950-2001). It could imply that an internal signal of the ocean-atmosphere system, which determines space-time patterns over Eurasia, has arisen. Intercomparison of the space-time EOF patterns between JRA25 and NCEP (1950-2001) re-analyses show that in autumn, winter and spring the first 3-4 corresponding time coefficients stay at the same order (coefficient correlations between them are significant), while in summer such correspondence in order of modes is changed. (author)

High resolution dynamical downscaling of air temperature and relative humidity: performance assessment of WRF for Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Menezes, Isilda; Pereira, Mário; Moreira, Demerval; Carvalheiro, Luís; Bugalho, Lourdes; Corte-Real, João

2017-04-01

Air temperature and relative humidity are two of the atmospheric variables with higher impact on human and natural systems, contributing to define the stress/comfortable conditions, affecting the productivity and health of the individuals as well as diminishing the resilience to other environmental hazards. Atmospheric regional models, driven by large scale forecasts from global circulation models, are the best way to reproduce such environmental conditions in high space-time resolution. This study is focused on the performance assessment of the WRF mesoscale model to perform high resolution dynamical downscaling for Portugal with three two-way nested grids, at 60 km, 20 km and 5 km horizontal resolution. The simulations of WRF models were produced with different initial and boundary forcing conditions. The NCEP-FNL Operational Global Analysis data available on 1-degree by 1-degree grid every six hours and ERA-Interim reanalyses dataset were used to drive the models. Two alternative configurations of the WRF model, including planetary boundary, layer schemes, microphysics, land-surface models, radiation schemes, were used and tested within the 5 km spatial resolution domain. Simulations of air temperature and relative humidity were produced for January and July of 2016 and compared with the observed datasets provided by the Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA) for 83 weather stations. Different performance measures of bias, precision, and accuracy were used, namely normalized bias, standard deviation, mean absolute error, root mean square error, bias of root mean square error as well as correlation based measures (e.g., coefficient of determination) and goodness of fit measures (index of agreement). Main conclusions from the obtained results reveal: (i) great similarity between the spatial patterns of the simulated and observed fields; (ii) only small differences between simulations produced with ERA-Interim and NCEP-FNL, in spite of some differences

Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-14

PAGE 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Tim Li 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) 808...The coupled model initial condition was derived based on a nudging scheme in which the model prognostic variables such as U, V, SLP, geopotential...height, air temperature and SST were nudged toward NCEP final analysis (FNL) fields. There were 24 ensemble forecast members each day. TCs in the model

Building long-term and high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation and air temperature reanalyses by mixing local observations and global atmospheric reanalyses: the ANATEM model

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A. Kuentz

2015-06-01

The ANATEM model has been also evaluated for the regional scale against independent long-term time series and was able to capture regional low-frequency variability over more than a century (1883–2010.

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

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P. K. Patra

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR, which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon circulation are reduced due to aerosol radiative forcing and the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2002. An increase in the dust and biomass-burning component of the aerosols through the zonal monsoon circulation resulted in reduction of cloud droplet growth in July 2002. These conditions were opposite to those in July 2003 which led to an above average ISMR. In this study, we have utilized NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for meteorological data (e.g. sea-surface temperature, horizontal winds, and precipitable water, NOAA interpolated outgoing long-wave radiation, IITM constructed all-India rainfall amounts, aerosol parameters as observed from the TOMS and MODIS satellites, and ATSR fire count maps. Based on this analysis, we suggest that monsoon rainfall prediction models should include synoptic as well as interannual variability in both atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition.

Facets of Arctic energy accumulation based on observations and reanalyses 2000-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, Michael; Haimberger, Leopold; Pietschnig, Marianne; Storto, Andrea

2016-10-16

Various observation- and reanalysis-based estimates of sea ice mass and ocean heat content trends imply that the energy imbalance of the Arctic climate system was similar [1.0 (0.9,1.2) Wm -2 ] to the global ocean average during the 2000-2015 period. Most of this extra heat warmed the ocean, and a comparatively small fraction went into sea ice melt. Poleward energy transports and radiation contributed to this energy increase at varying strengths. On a seasonal scale, stronger radiative energy input during summer associated with the ice-albedo feedback enhances seasonal oceanic heat uptake and sea ice melt. In return, lower sea ice extent and higher sea surface temperatures lead to enhanced heat release from the ocean during fall. This weakens meridional temperature gradients, consequently reducing atmospheric energy transports into the polar cap. The seasonal cycle of the Arctic energy budget is thus amplified, whereas the Arctic's long-term energy imbalance is close to the global mean.

Variations of Global Terrestrial Primary Production Observed by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) From 2000 to 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, M.; Running, S.; Heinsch, F. A.

2006-12-01

Since the first Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite Terra was launched in December 1999 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard Terra began to provide data in February 2000, we have had six-year MODIS global 1-km terrestrial Gross and Net Primary Production (GPP &NPP) datasets. In this article, we present the variations (seasonality and inter-annual variability) of global GPP/NPP from the latest improved Collection 4.8 (C4.8) MODIS datasets for the past six-year (2000 - 2005), as well as improvements of the algorithm, validations of GPP and NPP. Validation results show that the C4.8 data have higher accuracy and quality than the previous version. Analyses of the variations in GPP/NPP show that GPP not only can reflect strong seasonality of photosynthesis activities by plants in mid- and high-latitude, but importantly, can reveal enhanced growth of Amazon rainforests during dry season, consistent with the reports by Huete et al. (2006) on GRL. Spatially, plants over mid- and high-latitude (north to 22.5°N) are the major contributor of global GPP seasonality. Inter-annual variability of MODIS NPP for 2000 - 2005 reveals the negative effects of major droughts on carbon sequestration at the regional and continental scales. A striking phenomenon is that the severe drought in 2005 over Amazon reduced NPP, indicating water availability becomes the dominant limiting factor rather than solar radiation under normal conditions. GMAO and NCEP driven global total NPPs have the similar interannual anomalies, and they generally follow the inverted CO2 growth rate anomaly with correlation of 0.85 and 0.91, respectively, which are higher than the correlation of 0.7 found by Nemani et al. (2003) on Science. Though there are only 6 years of MODIS data, results show that global NPP decreased from 2000 to 2005, and spatially most decreased NPP areas are in tropic and south hemisphere.

Long-term global distribution of earth's shortwave radiation budget at the top of atmosphere

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N. Hatzianastassiou

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The mean monthly shortwave (SW radiation budget at the top of atmosphere (TOA was computed on 2.5° longitude-latitude resolution for the 14-year period from 1984 to 1997, using a radiative transfer model with long-term climatological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-D2 supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction – National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR Global Reanalysis project, and other global data bases such as TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS and Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS. The model radiative fluxes at TOA were validated against Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE S4 scanner satellite data (1985–1989. The model is able to predict the seasonal and geographical variation of SW TOA fluxes. On a mean annual and global basis, the model is in very good agreement with ERBE, overestimating the outgoing SW radiation at TOA (OSR by 0.93 Wm-2 (or by 0.92%, within the ERBE uncertainties. At pixel level, the OSR differences between model and ERBE are mostly within ±10 Wm-2, with ±5 Wm-2 over extended regions, while there exist some geographic areas with differences of up to 40 Wm-2, associated with uncertainties in cloud properties and surface albedo. The 14-year average model results give a planetary albedo equal to 29.6% and a TOA OSR flux of 101.2 Wm-2. A significant linearly decreasing trend in OSR and planetary albedo was found, equal to 2.3 Wm-2 and 0.6% (in absolute values, respectively, over the 14-year period (from January 1984 to December 1997, indicating an increasing solar planetary warming. This planetary SW radiative heating occurs in the tropical and sub-tropical areas (20° S–20° N, with clouds being the most likely cause. The computed global mean OSR anomaly ranges within ±4 Wm-2, with signals from El Niño and La Niña events or Pinatubo eruption, whereas significant negative OSR anomalies, starting from year 1992, are also

Impact of Parameterized Lee Wave Drag on the Energy Budget of an Eddying Global Ocean Model

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-26

Comparison between vertical shear mixing and surface wave-induced mixing in the extratropical ocean. J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans 117, C00J16. Rosmond, T.E...cycle for the World Ocean based on the 1=10 STORM /NCEP simulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 42, 2185–2205. Wallcraft, A.J., Kara, A.B., Hurlburt, H.E., 2005

Climatology and Structures of Southwest Vortices in NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Xinyuan; Liu, Changhai; Fan, Guangzhou; Liu, Xiaodong; Feng, Caiyun

2017-04-01

A southwest vortex (SWV) refers to the meso-α-scale cyclonic low-pressure system originating in southwest China, as a result of interactions of large-scale circulations and the specific multi-scale topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau, Hengduan Mountain and Sichuan Basin. It is a high-impact precipitation-generating weather system in southwestern China, in the Yangtze River valley and even in north China. This paper reports on a systematic investigation of its climatological and structural characteristics over the 32-yr period of 1979-2010 using the high-resolution NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. The present study has the several unique features. First, the new generation reanalysis product possesses high spatial and temporal resolution, arguably being more suitable for mesoscale vortex studies as compared to the preceding reanalysis datasets and moreover enabling an examination of the diurnal behavior. Second, our 32-yr statistics are capable of producing a robust representation of the SWV climatology. Third, the application of an objective identification methodology avoids some subjective ambiguities in the manual approach that has exclusively been adopted before. Lastly, a systematic exploration of thermodynamic and kinematic structures is conducted, unlike the previous exclusive heavy-rain-generating case studies. Our major findings are summarized as follows. The SWV is a common regional weather system with an annual count of 73. Two primary source regions are identified, located in the Sichuan Basin and southeast flank of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The genesis displays striking seasonality, characteristic of a spring-summer (March-August) preference with a peak in May. Remarkable diurnal variations are present, with two active periods around 07 and 19 Local Time. There exist prominent regional disparities in both the seasonal and diurnal variability though. A large portion of the vortices travel a rather limited distance due partially

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.

2012-01-01

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2012-12-15

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region

Science.gov (United States)

Bentzien, Sabrina; Bollmeyer, Christoph; Crewell, Susanne; Friederichs, Petra; Hense, Andreas; Keller, Jan; Keune, Jessica; Kneifel, Stefan; Ohlwein, Christian; Pscheidt, Ieda; Redl, Stephanie; Steinke, Sandra

2014-05-01

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on the regional reanalysis for Europe with a domain matching the CORDEX-EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). The COSMO reanalysis system comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-interim data. The reanalysis data set currently covers 6 years (2007-2012). The evaluation of the reanalyses is done using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations. The development and evaluation of the COSMO-based reanalysis for the CORDEX-Euro domain can be seen as a preparation for joint European activities on the development of an ensemble system of regional reanalyses for Europe.

Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan). Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil [Inst. for Global Change Research, Yokohama (Japan). Frontier Research System for Global Change; Thornton, Peter E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Div.

2003-04-01

Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO{sub 2} fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO{sub 2} time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO{sub 2} concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO{sub 2}, making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation.

Inter-annual variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as simulated with global terrestrial biosphere models and an atmospheric transport model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujita, Daisuke; Saeki, Tazu; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Ishizawa, Misa; Maksyutov, Shamil; Thornton, Peter E.

2003-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual variations of atmospheric CO 2 for the period from 1961 to 1997 have been simulated using a global tracer transport model driven by a new version of the Biome BioGeochemical Cycle model (Biome-BGC). Biome-BGC was forced by daily temperature and precipitation from the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the calculated monthly-averaged CO 2 fluxes were used as input to the global transport model. Results from an inter-comparison with the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and the Simulation model of Carbon CYCLE in Land Ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE) model are also reported. The phase of the seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere was reproduced generally well by Biome-BGC, although the amplitude was smaller compared to the observations and to the other biosphere models. The CO 2 time series simulated by Biome-BGC were compared to the global CO 2 concentration anomalies from the observations at Mauna Loa and the South Pole. The modeled concentration anomalies matched the phase of the inter-annual variations in the atmospheric CO 2 observations; however, the modeled amplitude was lower than the observed value in several cases. The result suggests that a significant part of the inter-annual variability in the global carbon cycle can be accounted for by the terrestrial biosphere models. Simulations performed with another climate-based model, Sim-CYCLE, produced a larger amplitude of inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO 2 , making the amplitude closer to the observed range, but with a more visible phase mismatch in a number of time periods. This may indicate the need to increase the Biome-BGC model sensitivity to seasonal and inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation

Spatial and temporal patterns of global onshore wind speed distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Yuyu; Smith, Steven J

2013-01-01

Wind power, a renewable energy source, can play an important role in electrical energy generation. Information regarding wind energy potential is important both for energy related modeling and for decision-making in the policy community. While wind speed datasets with high spatial and temporal resolution are often ultimately used for detailed planning, simpler assumptions are often used in analysis work. An accurate representation of the wind speed frequency distribution is needed in order to properly characterize wind energy potential. Using a power density method, this study estimated global variation in wind parameters as fitted to a Weibull density function using NCEP/climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) data over land areas. The Weibull distribution performs well in fitting the time series wind speed data at most locations according to R 2 , root mean square error, and power density error. The wind speed frequency distribution, as represented by the Weibull k parameter, exhibits a large amount of spatial variation, a regionally varying amount of seasonal variation, and relatively low decadal variation. We also analyzed the potential error in wind power estimation when a commonly assumed Rayleigh distribution (Weibull k = 2) is used. We find that the assumption of the same Weibull parameter across large regions can result in non-negligible errors. While large-scale wind speed data are often presented in the form of mean wind speeds, these results highlight the need to also provide information on the wind speed frequency distribution. (letter)

Climate Prediction Center

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Enter Search Term(s): Search Search the CPC Go NCEP Quarterly Newsletter Climate Highlights U.S Climate-Weather El Niño/La Niña MJO Blocking AAO, AO, NAO, PNA Climatology Global Monsoons Expert

A diagnostic study of the global coverage by contrails. Pt. 1. Present day climate. Revised version

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sausen, R.; Gierens, K.; Ponater, M.; Schumann, U.

1998-03-01

The global distribution of the contrail formation potential and the contrail cloud coverage are estimated using meteorological analysis data for temperature and humidity (ECMWF re-analyses) and a data base on aircraft fuel consumption. Regions with humidity between ice and liquid saturation and with temperature low enough to let aircraft trigger contrail formation are identified as regions in which persistent contrails may be formed. The frequency with which a region is conditioned for such persistent contrail formation measures the contrail formation potential. The mean contrail cloud coverage is computed by multiplying this frequency with a suitable function of fuel consumption (linear or non-linear). The product is normalized such that the contrail coverage equals the observed value of 0.5% in a domain between 30 W to 30 E, 35 N to 75 N. The results show a large potential for contrail formation in the upper troposphere, in particular in the tropics but also at mid-latitudes. At northern mid-latitudes about 20% of the upper tropospheric air is conditioned to form persistent contrails. Part of this region may be covered by otherwise forming cirrus clouds. When multiplied with fuel consumption of 1992 aviation, large cover by persistent contrail clouds is computed over Europe, the North Atlantic, the continental USA, and south-east Asia. The computed contrail coverage reaches 2% over the USA, and is larger in winter than in summer. The global mean contrail coverage is about 0.11% for linear fuel dependence and the given normalization. The result is only weakly sensitive to the propulsion efficiency of aircraft, but strongly sensitive to aircraft flight altitude. (orig.)

European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Haylock, M. R.

2011-10-01

Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. R. Haylock

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed.

The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

Globalization as a Driver or Bottleneck for Sustainable Development: Some Empirical, Cross-National Reflections on Basic Issues of International Health Policy and Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arno Tausch

2013-01-01

Full Text Available BackgroundThis article looks at the long-term, structural determinants of environmental and public health performance in the world system. MethodsIn multiple standard ordinary least squares (OLS regression models, we tested the effects of 26 standard predictor variables, including the ‘four freedoms’ of goods, capital, labour and services, on the following indicators of sustainable development and public health: avoiding net trade of ecological footprint global hectare (gha per person; avoiding high carbon emissions per million US dollars GDP; avoiding high CO2 per capita (gha/cap; avoiding high ecological footprint per capita; avoiding becoming victim of natural disasters; a good performance on the Environmental Performance Index (EPI; a good performance on the Happy Life Years (HLYs scale; and a good performance on the Happy Planet Index (HPI. ResultsOur research showed that the apprehensions of quantitative research, critical of neo-liberal globalization, are fully vindicated by the significant negative environmental and public health effects of the foreign savings rate. High foreign savings are indeed a driver of global footprint, and are a blockade against a satisfactory HPI performance. The new international division of labour is one of the prime drivers of high CO2 per capita emissions. Multinational Corporation (MNC penetration, the master variable of most quantitative dependency theories, blocks EPI and several other socially important processes. Worker remittances have a significant positive effect on the HPI, and HLYs. ConclusionWe re-analysed the solid macro-political and macro-sociological evidence on a global scale, published in the world’s leading peer-reviewed social science, ecological and public health journals, which seem to indicate that there are contradictions between unfettered globalization and unconstrained world economic openness and sustainable development and public health development. We suggest that there

Globalization as a driver or bottleneck for sustainable development: some empirical, cross-national reflections on basic issues of international health policy and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Tausch, Arno

2013-08-01

This article looks at the long-term, structural determinants of environmental and public health performance in the world system. In multiple standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models, we tested the effects of 26 standard predictor variables, including the 'four freedoms' of goods, capital, labour and services, on the following indicators of sustainable development and public health: avoiding net trade of ecological footprint global hectare (gha) per person; avoiding high carbon emissions per million US dollars GDP; avoiding high CO2 per capita (gha/cap); avoiding high ecological footprint per capita; avoiding becoming victim of natural disasters; a good performance on the Environmental Performance Index (EPI); a good performance on the Happy Life Years (HLYs) scale; and a good performance on the Happy Planet Index (HPI). Our research showed that the apprehensions of quantitative research, critical of neo-liberal globalization, are fully vindicated by the significant negative environmental and public health effects of the foreign savings rate. High foreign savings are indeed a driver of global footprint, and are a blockade against a satisfactory HPI performance. The new international division of labour is one of the prime drivers of high CO2 per capita emissions. Multinational Corporation (MNC) penetration, the master variable of most quantitative dependency theories, blocks EPI and several other socially important processes. Worker remittances have a significant positive effect on the HPI, and HLYs. We re-analysed the solid macro-political and macro-sociological evidence on a global scale, published in the world's leading peer-reviewed social science, ecological and public health journals, which seem to indicate that there are contradictions between unfettered globalization and unconstrained world economic openness and sustainable development and public health development. We suggest that there seems to be a strong interaction between 'transnational

Optimal estimation of regional N2O emissions using a three-dimensional global model

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, J.; Golombek, A.; Prinn, R.

2004-12-01

In this study, we use the MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry) model and Kalman filtering techniques to optimally estimate N2O emissions from seven source regions around the globe. The MATCH model was used with NCEP assimilated winds at T62 resolution (192 longitude by 94 latitude surface grid, and 28 vertical levels) from July 1st 1996 to December 31st 2000. The average concentrations of N2O in the lowest four layers of the model were then compared with the monthly mean observations from six national/global networks (AGAGE, CMDL (HATS), CMDL (CCGG), CSIRO, CSIR and NIES), at 48 surface sites. A 12-month-running-mean smoother was applied to both the model results and the observations, due to the fact that the model was not able to reproduce the very small observed seasonal variations. The Kalman filter was then used to solve for the time-averaged regional emissions of N2O for January 1st 1997 to June 30th 2000. The inversions assume that the model stratospheric destruction rates, which lead to a global N2O lifetime of 130 years, are correct. It also assumes normalized emission spatial distributions from each region based on previous studies. We conclude that the global N2O emission flux is about 16.2 TgN/yr, with {34.9±1.7%} from South America and Africa, {34.6±1.5%} from South Asia, {13.9±1.5%} from China/Japan/South East Asia, {8.0±1.9%} from all oceans, {6.4±1.1%} from North America and North and West Asia, {2.6±0.4%} from Europe, and {0.9±0.7%} from New Zealand and Australia. The errors here include the measurement standard deviation, calibration differences among the six groups, grid volume/measurement site mis-match errors estimated from the model, and a procedure to account approximately for the modeling errors.

Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Nobre, Paulo; Moura, Antonio D.; Sun, Liqiang

2001-12-01

This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January-April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one-way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80-km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM-80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80-km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root-mean-square error. On the other hand, the RSM-20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM-80 model is one of the principal reasons for better-forecast scores of the RSM-80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic-scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80-km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.

Global (50°S–50°N) distribution of water vapor observed by COSMIC GPS RO: Comparison with GPS radiosonde, NCEP, ERA-Interim, and JRA-25 reanalysis data sets

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Kishore, P

2011-08-01

Full Text Available In this study, global (50°S–50°N) distribution of water vapor is investigated using COSMIC GPS RO measurements. Detailed comparisons have been made between COSMIC and high resolution GPS radiosonde measurements across 13 tropical stations and model...

OceanNOMADS: Real-time and retrospective access to operational U.S. ocean prediction products

Science.gov (United States)

Harding, J. M.; Cross, S. L.; Bub, F.; Ji, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) provides both real-time and archived atmospheric model output from servers at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) respectively (http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/marRutledge-1.pdf). The NOAA National Ocean Data Center (NODC) with NCEP is developing a complementary capability called OceanNOMADS for operational ocean prediction models. An NCEP ftp server currently provides real-time ocean forecast output (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml) with retrospective access through NODC. A joint effort between the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI; a NOAA Cooperative Institute) and the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC; a division of NODC) created the developmental version of the retrospective OceanNOMADS capability (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/ocean_nomads.php) under the NGI Ecosystem Data Assembly Center (EDAC) project (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/). Complementary funding support for the developmental OceanNOMADS from U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) through the Southeastern University Research Association (SURA) Model Testbed (http://testbed.sura.org/) this past year provided NODC the analogue that facilitated the creation of an NCDDC production version of OceanNOMADS (http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/ocean-nomads/). Access tool development and storage of initial archival data sets occur on the NGI/NCDDC developmental servers with transition to NODC/NCCDC production servers as the model archives mature and operational space and distribution capability grow. Navy operational global ocean forecast subsets for U.S waters comprise the initial ocean prediction fields resident on the NCDDC production server. The NGI/NCDDC developmental server currently includes the Naval Research Laboratory Inter-America Seas

Suscetibilidade do ambiente a ocorrências de queimadas sob condições climáticas atuais e de futuro aquecimento global Environmental susceptibility for the occurance of vegetacion burning under present day and future clobal warming conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anailton Sales Mélo

2011-09-01

Full Text Available As queimadas, a nível global, são a segunda maior fonte de emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Um passo importante para a redução dos impactos das queimadas é por meio de investigação da suscetibilidade, que um determinado ambiente possui para a queima ou mesmo para o alastramento do fogo (risco de fogo. Diante da necessidade de se conhecer possíveis implicações das mudanças na circulação atmosférica em um futuro próximo, pretende-se neste trabalho investigar a suscetibilidade do ambiente à ocorrência de queimadas, baseado no índice de risco de queimadas, a saber: o Índice de Haines (IH. Para tanto, dados de modelagem numérica do modelo ECHAM5/MPI-OM, e dados das reanálises do NCEP são empregados para os cálculos do IH em dois períodos: atual (1980-2000 e projeções climáticas para o final do século (2080-2100. Com base nos resultados, concluiu-se que o modelo de risco de fogo reproduz bem as áreas com maior incidência de queimadas sob condições atuais, e que sob condições de aquecimento global detectou-se um aumento na área de risco em especial para a região Amazônica.Vegetation burning is the second source of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. An important step to reduce the climate impact of these emissions is to investigate the atmospheric susceptibility of a region for fire development (fire risk. This study aims to investigate the environmental susceptibility to fire development, based on the burning risk index: the Haines Index (HI. The study is carried out with data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model and the NCEP reanalysis data, to calculate the HI during two periods: present day (1980-2000 and climate projections for the end of the 21st century (2080-2100. Based upon the results, we concluded that the Haines index could reproduce properly the areas with the highest fire incidence under present conditions. Moreover, it has been found an enlargement in the fire risk area under global

Prediction and error growth in the daily forecast of precipitation from the NCEP CFSv2 over the subdivisions of Indian subcontinent

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, Dhruva Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Shahi, N. K.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the forecast skill and predictability of various indices of south Asian monsoon as well as the subdivisions of the Indian subcontinent during JJAS season for the time domain of 2001-2013 using NCEP CFSv2 output. It has been observed that the daily mean climatology of precipitation over the land points of India is underestimated in the model forecast as compared to observation. The monthly model bias of precipitation shows the dry bias over the land points of India and also over the Bay of Bengal, whereas the Himalayan and Arabian Sea regions show the wet bias. We have divided the Indian landmass into five subdivisions namely central India, southern India, Western Ghat, northeast and southern Bay of Bengal regions based on the spatial variation of observed mean precipitation in JJAS season. The underestimation over the land points of India during mature phase was originated from the central India, southern Bay of Bengal, southern India and Western Ghat regions. The error growth in June forecast is slower as compared to July forecast in all the regions. The predictability error also grows slowly in June forecast as compared to July forecast in most of the regions. The doubling time of predictability error was estimated to be in the range of 3-5 days for all the regions. Southern India and Western Ghats are more predictable in the July forecast as compared to June forecast, whereas IMR, northeast, central India and southern Bay of Bengal regions have the opposite nature.

North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

Science.gov (United States)

Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

2009-04-01

the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9.

Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

2015-04-01

") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

Climatology and classification of spring Saharan cyclone tracks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hannachi, A. [Reading University, Department of Meteorology, PO Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom); Awad, A. [King Abdulaziz University, Department of Meteorology, Jeddah (Saudi Arabia); Ammar, K. [Meteorological Authority, Department of Research, Cairo (Egypt)

2011-08-15

Spring Saharan cyclones constitute a dominant feature of the not-well-explored Saharan region. In this manuscript, a climatological analysis and classification of Saharan cyclone tracks are presented using 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR sea level pressure (SLP) reanalyses over the Sahara (10 W-50 E, 20 N-50 N) for the Spring (March-April-May) season over the period 1958-2006. A simple tracking procedure based on following SLP minima is used to construct around 640 Spring Saharan cyclone tracks. Saharan cyclones are found to be short-lived compared to their extratropical counterparts with an e-folding time of about 3 days. The lee side of the west Atlas mountain is found to be the main cyclogenetic region for Spring Saharan cyclones. Central Iraq is identified as the main cyclolytic area. A subjective procedure is used next to classify the cyclone tracks where six clusters are identified. Among these clusters the Western Atlas-Asia Minor is the largest and most stretched, whereas Algerian Sahara-Asia Minor is composed of the most long-lived tracks. Upper level flow associated with the tracks has also been examined and the role of large scale baroclinicity in the growth of Saharan cyclones is discussed. (orig.)

Evaluating the performance of remotely sensed and reanalysed precipitation data over West Africa using HBV light

Science.gov (United States)

Jütten, Thomas; Jackisch, Dominik; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen; Eicker, Annette; Springer, Anne

2016-04-01

Water is one of the most crucial natural resources in West Africa, where the livelihoods of large parts of the population rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture. Therefore, the modelling of the water balance is an important tool to aid in water resource management. Precipitation is one of most important atmospheric drivers of hydrological models. However, ground-based observation networks are sparse in Western Africa and a further decline in station numbers due to a variety of reasons such as the deterioration of stations or political unrest has been observed in recent years. In ungauged river basins, or basins with insufficiently available precipitation data, several studies have shown that remotely sensed or reanalysed precipitation data may be used to compliment or replace missing information. However, the uncertainties of these datasets over Western Africa are not well examined and a need for further studies is apparent. For validation purposes, precipitation datasets are traditionally compared to in-situ ground measurements. This is not possible in ungauged basins. A new approach to assess the quality of satellite and reanalysis data which is gaining popularity among researchers compares different precipitation datasets using hydrological models. In this so-called hydrological evaluation, ground-truth data is no longer necessary in order to validate a product. The chosen model is calibrated for different precipitation products and the simulated streamflow generated for each product is compared to the measured streamflow. Multiple state of the art satellite and reanalysis precipitation datasets with various spatial resolutions were used in this study, namely: CFSR (0.3125°), CHIRPS (0.05°), CMORPH (0.25°), PERSIANN (0.25°), RFE 2.0 (0.1°), TAMSAT (0.0375°), TRMM 3B42 v7 (0.25°) and TRMM 3B42RT (real time) (0.25°). These datasets were evaluated at the regional as well as local scale using the HBV light conceptual hydrological model for several basins

Nudging atmosphere and ocean reanalyses for seasonal climate predictions

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Piontek, Robert; Baehr, Johanna; Kornblueh, Luis; Müller, Wolfgang Alexander; Haak, Helmuth; Botzet, Michael; Matei, Daniela

2010-05-01

Seasonal climate forecasts based on state-of-the-art climate models have been developed recently. Here, we critically discuss the obstacles encountered in the setup of the ECHAM6/MPIOM global coupled climate model to perform climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. We particularly focus on the initialization procedure, especially on the implementation of the nudging scheme, in which different reanalysis products are used in the atmosphere (e.g.ERA40), and the ocean (e.g., GECCO). Nudging in the atmosphere appears to be sensitive to the following choices: limiting the spectral range of nudging, whether or not temperature is nudged, the strength of the nudging coefficient for surface pressure, and the height at which the planetary boundary layer is excluded from nudging. We find that including nudging in both the atmosphere and the ocean gives improved results over nudging only the ocean or the atmosphere. For the implementation of the nudging in the atmosphere, we find the most significant improvements in the solution when either the planetary boundary layer is excluded, or if nudging of temperature is omitted. There are significant improvements in the solution when resolution is increased in both the atmosphere and in the ocean. Our tests form the basis for the prediction system introduced in the abstract of Müller et al., where hindcasts are analysed as well.

Evaluating short-term hydro-meteorological fluxes using GRACE-derived water storage changes

Science.gov (United States)

Eicker, A.; Jensen, L.; Springer, A.; Kusche, J.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric and terrestrial water budgets, which represent important boundary conditions for both climate modeling and hydrological studies, are linked by evapotranspiration (E) and precipitation (P). These fields are provided by numerical weather prediction models and atmospheric reanalyses such as ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land; yet, in particular the quality of E is still not well evaluated. Via the terrestrial water budget equation, water storage changes derived from products of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined with runoff (R) data can be used to assess the realism of atmospheric models. In this contribution we will investigate the closure of the water balance for short-term fluxes, i.e. the agreement of GRACE water storage changes with P-E-R flux time series from different (global and regional) atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, as well as observation-based data sets. Missing river runoff observations will be extrapolated using the calibrated rainfall-runoff model GR2M. We will perform a global analysis and will additionally focus on selected river basins in West Africa. The investigations will be carried out for various temporal scales, focusing on short-term fluxes down to daily variations to be detected in daily GRACE time series.

A high-resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX region

Science.gov (United States)

Bollmeyer, Christoph; Keller, Jan; Ohlwein, Christian; Wahl, Sabrina

2015-04-01

Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Weather Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations, renewable energy applications). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on two regional reanalyses for Europe and Germany. The European reanalysis COSMO-REA6 matches the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). Nested into COSMO-REA6 is COSMO-REA2, a convective-scale reanalysis with 2km resolution for Germany. COSMO-REA6 comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-Interim data. COSMO-REA2 also uses the nudging scheme complemented by a latent heat nudging of radar information. The reanalysis data set currently covers 17 years (1997-2013) for COSMO-REA6 and 4 years (2010-2013) for COSMO-REA2 with a very large set of output variables and a high temporal output step of hourly 3D-fields and quarter-hourly 2D-fields. The evaluation

Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Gelaro, Ron

2018-01-01

Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be

Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

Science.gov (United States)

Manney, Gloria L.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Lawrence, Zachary D.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Millán, Luis F.; Schwartz, Michael J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Lambert, Alyn; Pawson, Steven; Knosp, Brian W.; Fuller, Ryan A.; Daffer, William H.

2017-09-01

multiple tropopause distributions. Quantitative differences may, however, have important consequences for transport and variability studies. Our results highlight the importance of considering reanalyses differences in UTLS studies, especially in relation to resolution and model grids; this is particularly critical when using high-resolution reanalyses as an observational reference for evaluating global chemistry-climate models.

Intercomparison of the Gulf Stream in ocean reanalyses: 1993-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Chi, Lequan; Wolfe, Christopher L. P.; Hameed, Sultan

2018-05-01

In recent years, significant progress has been made in the development of high-resolution ocean reanalysis products. This paper compares aspects of the Gulf Stream (GS) from the Florida Straits to south of the Grand Banks-particularly Florida Strait transport, separation of the GS near Cape Hatteras, GS properties along the Oleander Line (from New Jersey to Bermuda), GS path, and the GS north wall positions-in 13 widely used global reanalysis products of various resolutions, including two unconstrained products. A large spread across reanalysis products is found. HYCOM and GLORYS2v4 stand out for their superior performance by most metrics. Some common biases are found in all discussed models; for example, the velocity structure of the GS near the Oleander Line is too symmetrical and the maximum velocity is too weak compared with observations. Less than half of the reanalysis products show significant correlations (at the 95% confidence level) with observations for the GS separation latitude at Cape Hatteras, the GS transport, and net transport across Oleander Line. The cross-stream velocity structure is further discussed by a theoretical model idealizing GS as a smoothed PV front.

Dynamical Downscaling over Siberia: Is there an added value in representing recent climate conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Klehmet, K.; Rockel, B.

2012-04-01

The analysis of long-term changes and variability of climate variables for the large areal extent of Siberia - covering arctic, subarctic and temperate northern latitudes - is hampered by the sparseness of in-situ observations. To counteract this deficiency we aimed to provide a reconstruction of regional climate for the period 1948-2010 getting homogenous, consistent fields of various terrestrial and atmospheric parameters for Siberia. In order to obtain in addition a higher temporal and spatial resolution than global datasets can provide, we performed the reconstruction using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (climate mode of the limited area model COSMO developed by the German weather service). However, the question arises whether the dynamically downscaled data of reanalysis can improve the representation of recent climate conditions. As global forcing for the initialization and the regional boundaries we use NCEP-1 Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since it has the longest temporal data coverage among the reanalysis products. Additionally, spectral nudging is applied to prevent the regional model from deviating from the prescribed large-scale circulation within the whole simulation domain. The area of interest covers a region in Siberia, spanning from the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea to Northern Mongolia and from the West Siberian Lowland to the border of Sea of Okhotsk. The current horizontal resolution is of about 50 km which is planned to be increased to 25 km. To answer the question, we investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation of the model output in comparison to global reanalysis data (NCEP-1, ERA40, ERA-Interim). As reference Russian station data from the "Global Summary of the Day" data set, provided by NCDC, is used. Temperature is analyzed with respect to its climatologically spatial patterns across the model domain and its variability of extremes based on climate indices derived

Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Gregory

2011-01-01

In order to facilitate Earth science data access, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC) has developed a web prototype, the Hurricane Data Analysis Tool (HDAT; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/HDAT), to allow users to conduct online visualization and analysis of several remote sensing and model datasets for educational activities and studies of tropical cyclones and other weather phenomena. With a web browser and few mouse clicks, users can have a full access to terabytes of data and generate 2-D or time-series plots and animation without downloading any software and data. HDAT includes data from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Quick Scatterometer(QuikSCAT) and NECP Reanalysis, and the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N - 60 S) IR Dataset. The GES DISC archives TRMM data. The daily global rainfall product derived from the 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation product (3B42 V6) is available in HDAT. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature from the Remote Sensing Systems is in HDAT as well. The NASA QuikSCAT ocean surface wind and the NCEP Reanalysis provide ocean surface and atmospheric conditions, respectively. The global merged IR product, also known as, the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N -60 S) IR Dataset, is one of TRMM ancillary datasets. They are globally-merged pixel-resolution IR brightness temperature data (equivalent blackbody temperatures), merged from all available geostationary satellites (GOES-8/10, METEOSAT-7/5 & GMS). The GES DISC has collected over 10 years of the data beginning from February of 2000. This high temporal resolution (every 30 minutes) dataset not only provides additional background information to TRMM and other satellite missions, but also allows observing a wide range of meteorological phenomena from space, such as, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convection system, etc. Basic functions include selection of area of

Global observation-based diagnosis of soil moisture control on land surface flux partition

Science.gov (United States)

Gallego-Elvira, Belen; Taylor, Christopher M.; Harris, Phil P.; Ghent, Darren; Veal, Karen L.; Folwell, Sonja S.

2016-04-01

Soil moisture plays a central role in the partition of available energy at the land surface between sensible and latent heat flux to the atmosphere. As soils dry out, evapotranspiration becomes water-limited ("stressed"), and both land surface temperature (LST) and sensible heat flux rise as a result. This change in surface behaviour during dry spells directly affects critical processes in both the land and the atmosphere. Soil water deficits are often a precursor in heat waves, and they control where feedbacks on precipitation become significant. State-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) disagree on where and how strongly the surface energy budget is limited by soil moisture. Evaluation of GCM simulations at global scale is still a major challenge owing to the scarcity and uncertainty of observational datasets of land surface fluxes and soil moisture at the appropriate scale. Earth observation offers the potential to test how well GCM land schemes simulate hydrological controls on surface fluxes. In particular, satellite observations of LST provide indirect information about the surface energy partition at 1km resolution globally. Here, we present a potentially powerful methodology to evaluate soil moisture stress on surface fluxes within GCMs. Our diagnostic, Relative Warming Rate (RWR), is a measure of how rapidly the land warms relative to the overlying atmosphere during dry spells lasting at least 10 days. Under clear skies, this is a proxy for the change in sensible heat flux as soil dries out. We derived RWR from MODIS Terra and Aqua LST observations, meteorological re-analyses and satellite rainfall datasets. Globally we found that on average, the land warmed up during dry spells for 97% of the observed surface between 60S and 60N. For 73% of the area, the land warmed faster than the atmosphere (positive RWR), indicating water stressed conditions and increases in sensible heat flux

Update on the NASA GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting and Data Assimilation System

Science.gov (United States)

Colarco, Peter; da Silva, Arlindo; Aquila, Valentina; Bian, Huisheng; Buchard, Virginie; Castellanos, Patricia; Darmenov, Anton; Follette-Cook, Melanie; Govindaraju, Ravi; Keller, Christoph;

Evaluations of Extended-Range tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by using the Ensemble Reforecasts: Preliminary Results

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Chen, Pang-Cheng; Elsberry, Russell L.

2017-04-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictability of the extended-range forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific using reforecasts from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) during 1996-2015, and from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) during 1999-2010. Tsai and Elsberry have demonstrated that an opportunity exists to support hydrological operations by using the extended-range TC formation and track forecasts in the western North Pacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble. To demonstrate this potential for the decision-making processes regarding water resource management and hydrological operation in Taiwan reservoir watershed areas, special attention is given to the skill of the NCEP GEFS and CFS models in predicting the TCs affecting the Taiwan area. The first objective of this study is to analyze the skill of NCEP GEFS and CFS TC forecasts and quantify the forecast uncertainties via verifications of categorical binary forecasts and probabilistic forecasts. The second objective is to investigate the relationships among the large-scale environmental factors [e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), etc.] and the model forecast errors by using the reforecasts. Preliminary results are indicating that the skill of the TC activity forecasts based on the raw forecasts can be further improved if the model biases are minimized by utilizing these reforecasts.

Numerical simulation of surface solar radiation over Southern Africa. Part 1: Evaluation of regional and global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Chao; Morel, Béatrice; Wild, Martin; Pohl, Benjamin; Abiodun, Babatunde; Bessafi, Miloud

2018-02-01

This study evaluates the performance of climate models in reproducing surface solar radiation (SSR) over Southern Africa (SA) by validating five Regional Climate Models (RCM, including CCLM4, HIRHAM5, RACMO22T, RCA4 and REMO2009) that participated in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment program over Africa (CORDEX-Africa) along with their ten driving General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 over SA. The model simulated SSR was thereby compared to reference data from ground-based measurements, satellite-derived products and reanalyses over the period 1990-2005. Results show that (1) the references obtained from satellite retrievals and reanalyses overall overestimate SSR by up to 10 W/m2 on average when compared to ground-based measurements from the Global Energy Balance Archive, which are located mainly over the eastern part of the southern African continent. (2) Compared to one of the satellite products (Surface Solar Radiation Data Set—Heliosat Edition 2; SARAH-2): GCMs overestimate SSR over SA in terms of their multi-model mean by about 1 W/m2 (compensation of opposite biases over sub-regions) and 7.5 W/m2 in austral summer and winter respectively; RCMs driven by GCMs show in their multimodel mean underestimations of SSR in both seasons with Mean Bias Errors (MBEs) of about - 30 W/m2 in austral summer and about - 14 W/m2 in winter compared to SARAH-2. This multi-model mean low bias is dominated by the simulations of the CCLM4, with negative biases up to - 76 W/m2 in summer and - 32 W/m2 in winter. (3) The discrepancies in the simulated SSR over SA are larger in the RCMs than in the GCMs. (4) In terms of trend during the "brightening" period 1990-2005, both GCMs and RCMs (driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis ERA-Interim, short as ERAINT and GCMs) simulate an SSR trend of less than 1 W/m2 per decade. However, variations of SSR trend exist among different references data

A comparison of simulation results from two terrestrial carbon cycle models using three climate data sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ito, Akihiko; Sasai, Takahiro

2006-01-01

This study addressed how different climate data sets influence simulations of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. For the period 1982-2001, we compared the results of simulations based on three climate data sets (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ERA40) employed in meteorological, ecological and biogeochemical studies and two different models (BEAMS and Sim-CYCLE). The models differed in their parameterizations of photosynthetic and phenological processes but used the same surface climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, temperature and precipitation), vegetation, soil and topography data. The three data sets give different climatic conditions, especially for shortwave radiation, in terms of long-term means, linear trends and interannual variability. Consequently, the simulation results for global net primary productivity varied by 16%-43% only from differences in the climate data sets, especially in these regions where the shortwave radiation data differed markedly: differences in the climate data set can strongly influence simulation results. The differences among the climate data set and between the two models resulted in slightly different spatial distribution and interannual variability in the net ecosystem carbon budget. To minimize uncertainty, we should pay attention to the specific climate data used. We recommend developing an accurate standard climate data set for simulation studies

Multidecadal change of winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean associated with AMO and PDO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronika Nikolaevna Maslova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is devoted to analysis of the cold half-year (October to March frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with the global processes in the ocean-atmosphere system - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO. Firstly, climatic conditions in the North Atlantic-European region during positive and negative phases of these global oscillations were shown using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1948 - 2016 and data of the NASA GISS Atlas of Exratropical Strom Tracks in 1961 - 1998. Mean monthly values / anomalies (composites for equal periods of the negative and positive AMO and PDO phases were calculated and compared. The results of the study support the idea that the Pacific and Atlantic influence on the climatic (multidecadal scale is realized via change of the large-scale fields of the North Atlantic anomalies typical for the interannual scale. Then spatial distribution of the frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region was obtained using global NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets on 1000 hPa geopotential height in 1948 - 2013. It was shown that during the positive AMO phase, frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean was higher by absolute values in November to March over the Tyrrhenian and Ionic Seas and lower over the Anatolian peninsula. During the negative PDO phase, frequency of cyclones over the Anatolian peninsula in January to March is significantly higher than in the positive PDO phase.

Review of climate and cryospheric change in the Tibetan Plateau

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang Shichang; Xu Yanwei; You Qinglong; Yao Tandong; Fluegel, Wolfgang-Albert; Pepin, Nick

2010-01-01

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), with an average elevation of over 4000 m asl and an area of approximately 2.5 x 10 6 km 2 , is the highest and most extensive highland in the world and has been called the 'Third Pole'. The TP exerts a huge influence on regional and global climate through thermal and mechanical forcing mechanisms. Because the TP has the largest cryospheric extent outside the polar region and is the source region of all the large rivers in Asia, it is widely recognized to be the driving force for both regional environmental change and amplification of environmental changes on a global scale. Within China it is recognized as the 'Asian water tower'. In this letter, we summarize the recent changes observed in climate elements and cryospheric indicators on the plateau before discussing current unresolved issues concerning climate change in the TP, including the temporal and spatial components of this change, and the consistency of change as represented by different data sources. Based on meteorological station data, reanalyses and remote sensing, the TP has shown significant warming during the last decades and will continue to warm in the future. While the warming is predominantly caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes in cloud amount, snow-albedo feedback, the Asian brown clouds and land use changes also partly contribute. The cryosphere in the TP is undergoing rapid change, including glacier retreat, inconsistent snow cover change, increasing permafrost temperatures and degradation, and thickening of the active layer. Hydrological processes impacted by glacial retreat have received much attention in recent years. Future attention should be paid to additional perspectives on climate change in the TP, such as the variations of climate extremes, the reliability of reanalyses and more detailed comparisons of reanalyses with surface observations. Spatial issues include the identification of whether an elevational dependency and weekend effect exist

Prevalência de síndrome metabólica em idosos de uma comunidade: comparação entre três métodos diagnósticos Prevalencia de síndrome metabólico en adultos mayores: comparación entre tres métodos diagnósticos Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in an elderly community: comparison between three diagnostic methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julio Cesar Rigo

2009-08-01

Full Text Available FUNDAMENTO: A prevalência de síndrome metabólica (SM, encontrada em diferentes estudos, tem apresentado ampla variação dependendo da população e do critério diagnóstico utilizado, havendo uma tendência de maior prevalência da SM com o critério diagnóstico da International Diabetes Federation (IDF. OBJETIVO: Comparar a prevalência da SM com diferentes critérios em idosos de uma comunidade. MÉTODOS: Este é um estudo transversal, de base populacional, realizado na cidade de Novo Hamburgo - RS, Brasil -, do qual participaram 378 idosos com 60 anos ou mais (252 mulheres e 126 homens. A prevalência da SM foi estimada aplicando os critérios diagnósticos do National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATPIII (2001, do NCEP ATPIII revisado (2005 e da IDF. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de SM aumentou progressivamente com a utilização dos critérios do NCEP ATP III, NCEP ATP III revisado e da IDF, apresentando valores de 50,3%, 53,4% e 56,9%, respectivamente. O aumento progressivo da prevalência de SM com a utilização dos três critérios ocorreu em ambos os sexos, com maior prevalência entre as mulheres, com percentuais de 57,1%, 59,9% e 63,5% com os critérios do NCEP ATP III, NCEP ATP III revisado e da IDF, respectivamente. CONCLUSÃO: Utilizando o critério da IDF, encontrou-se uma maior prevalência de SM em relação à prevalência encontrada com o critério do NCEP ATP III e NCEP ATP III revisado. A prevalência da SM foi maior entre as mulheres, independente do critério utilizado.FUNDAMENTO: prevalencia de síndrome metabólico (SM, evidenciada en diferentes estudios, ha presentado amplia variación dependiendo de la población y del criterio diagnóstico utilizado, habiendo una tendencia de mayor prevalencia del SM según el criterio diagnóstico de la International Diabetes Federation (IDF. OBJETIVO: Comparar la prevalencia del SM con diferentes criterios en adultos mayores de una comunidad. M�

The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

Science.gov (United States)

Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

Recent Global Dimming and Brightening and its causes from a satellite perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Ioannidis, Eleftherios; Papadimas, Christos D.; Benas, Nikolaos; Fotiadi, Aggeliki; Matsoukas, Christos; Hatzianastassiou, Nikolaos; Wild, Martin; Vardavas, Ilias M.

2017-04-01

Solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface is particularly important for life on our planet and plays a major role for the Earth's energy budget and climate. The surface solar radiation (SSR) apart from long-temporal scale variations has been also shown to have undergone decadal variations that are documented on a regional or global scale since the middle of 20th century. After a dimming (decrease) through the 1980s and a subsequent brightening (increase) in the 1990s there are indications of a renewed dimming in the first decade of 2000. Although suggestions have been made, there is still no consensus on the causes of Global Dimming and Brightening (GDB), with clouds and aerosols being suggested as the most important factors,especially as to the GDB global distribution. The rapid progress of satellite observations over the last three decades, ensuring the retrieval of various atmospheric and surface parameters, enables a global view of the phenomenon and the identification of its causes, which are both critical for better understanding GDB and its role for recent climate change. The present work is a model- and satellite- based study of GDB from 1984 to 2009 on global scale is attempted using a detailed spectral radiation transfer model (RTM) and satellite and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis input data. The model takes into account the physical parameters that drive SSR through scattering and absorption, namely clouds, aerosols, water vapor and other trace gases, as well as surface reflectance. However, due to limitations in the availability, homogeneity, continuity and complete temporal coverage of model input data, the study is performed forthree different cases. In the first case, GDB is computed with the RTM over the period 1984-2009 using temporally varying ISCCP cloud properties and GADS (Global Aerosol Data Set) climatological aerosol properties, namely aerosol optical thickness (AOT), single scattering albedo (SSA) and asymmetry parameter (AP). In the second case

The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Large, W.G.; Yeager, S.G. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

2009-08-15

The air-sea fluxes of momentum, heat, freshwater and their components have been computed globally from 1948 at frequencies ranging from 6-hourly to monthly. All fluxes are computed over the 23 years from 1984 to 2006, but radiation prior to 1984 and precipitation before 1979 are given only as climatological mean annual cycles. The input data are based on NCEP reanalysis only for the near surface vector wind, temperature, specific humidity and density, and on a variety of satellite based radiation, sea surface temperature, sea-ice concentration and precipitation products. Some of these data are adjusted to agree in the mean with a variety of more reliable satellite and in situ measurements, that themselves are either too short a duration, or too regional in coverage. The major adjustments are a general increase in wind speed, decrease in humidity and reduction in tropical solar radiation. The climatological global mean air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes (1984-2006) then become 2 W/m{sup 2} and -0.1 mg/m{sup 2} per second, respectively, down from 30 W/m{sup 2} and 3.4 mg/m{sup 2} per second for the unaltered data. However, decadal means vary from 7.3 W/m{sup 2} (1977-1986) to -0.3 W/m{sup 2} (1997-2006). The spatial distributions of climatological fluxes display all the expected features. A comparison of zonally averaged wind stress components across ocean sub-basins reveals large differences between available products due both to winds and to the stress calculation. Regional comparisons of the heat and freshwater fluxes reveal an alarming range among alternatives; typically 40 W/m{sup 2} and 10 mg/m{sup 2} per second, respectively. The implied ocean heat transports are within the uncertainty of estimates from ocean observations in both the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific basins. They show about 2.4 PW of tropical heating, of which 80% is transported to the north, mostly in the Atlantic. There is similar good agreement in freshwater transport at many latitudes in both

NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Data is from NMC initialized reanalysis (4x/day). It consists of most variables interpolated to pressure surfaces from model (sigma) surfaces.

Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis

KAUST Repository

Mueller, B.

2013-10-01

Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets.Here, Monthly Global Land et Synthesis Products, Merged from These Individual Data Sets over the Time Periods 1989-1995 (7 Yr) and 1989-2005 (17 Yr), Are Presented. the Merged Synthesis Products over the Shorter Period Are Based on A Total of 40 Distinct Data Sets while Those over the Longer Period Are Based on A Total of 14 Data Sets. in the Individual Data Sets, et Is Derived from Satellite And/or in Situ Observations (Diagnostic Data Sets) or Calculated Via Land-surface Models (LSMs) Driven with Observations-based Forcing or Output from Atmospheric Reanalyses. Statistics for Four Merged Synthesis Products Are Provided, One Including All Data Sets and Three Including only Data Sets from One Category Each (Diagnostic, LSMs, and Reanalyses). the Multi-annual Variations of et in the Merged Synthesis Products Display Realistic Responses. They Are Also Consistent with Previous Findings of A Global Increase in et between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 Mm yr-2 in Our Merged Product) Followed by A Significant Decrease in This Trend (-0.18 Mm yr-2), although These Trends Are Relatively Small Compared to the Uncertainty of Absolute et Values. the Global Mean et from the Merged Synthesis Products (Based on All Data Sets) Is 493 Mm yr-1 (1.35 Mm d-1) for Both the 1989-1995 and 1989-2005 Products, Which Is Relatively Low Compared to Previously Published Estimates. We Estimate Global Runoff (Precipitation Minus ET) to 263 Mm yr -1 (34 406 km3 yr-1) for A Total Land Area of 130 922 000 km2. Precipitation, Being An Important Driving Factor and Input to Most Simulated et Data Sets, Presents Uncertainties between Single Data Sets As Large As Those in the et Estimates. in Order to Reduce Uncertainties in Current et Products, Improving the Accuracy of the Input Variables, Especially Precipitation, As Well As the Parameterizations of ET, Are Crucial. 2013 Author(s).

Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis

KAUST Repository

Mueller, B.; Hirschi, M.; Jimenez, C.; Ciais, P.; Dirmeyer, P.A.; Dolman, A.J.; Fisher, J.B.; Jung, M.; Ludwig, F.; Maignan, F.; Miralles, D.G.; McCabe, Matthew; Reichstein, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wang, K.; Wood, E.F.; Zhang, Y.; Seneviratne, S.I.

2013-01-01

Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets.Here, Monthly Global Land et Synthesis Products, Merged from These Individual Data Sets over the Time Periods 1989-1995 (7 Yr) and 1989-2005 (17 Yr), Are Presented. the Merged Synthesis Products over the Shorter Period Are Based on A Total of 40 Distinct Data Sets while Those over the Longer Period Are Based on A Total of 14 Data Sets. in the Individual Data Sets, et Is Derived from Satellite And/or in Situ Observations (Diagnostic Data Sets) or Calculated Via Land-surface Models (LSMs) Driven with Observations-based Forcing or Output from Atmospheric Reanalyses. Statistics for Four Merged Synthesis Products Are Provided, One Including All Data Sets and Three Including only Data Sets from One Category Each (Diagnostic, LSMs, and Reanalyses). the Multi-annual Variations of et in the Merged Synthesis Products Display Realistic Responses. They Are Also Consistent with Previous Findings of A Global Increase in et between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 Mm yr-2 in Our Merged Product) Followed by A Significant Decrease in This Trend (-0.18 Mm yr-2), although These Trends Are Relatively Small Compared to the Uncertainty of Absolute et Values. the Global Mean et from the Merged Synthesis Products (Based on All Data Sets) Is 493 Mm yr-1 (1.35 Mm d-1) for Both the 1989-1995 and 1989-2005 Products, Which Is Relatively Low Compared to Previously Published Estimates. We Estimate Global Runoff (Precipitation Minus ET) to 263 Mm yr -1 (34 406 km3 yr-1) for A Total Land Area of 130 922 000 km2. Precipitation, Being An Important Driving Factor and Input to Most Simulated et Data Sets, Presents Uncertainties between Single Data Sets As Large As Those in the et Estimates. in Order to Reduce Uncertainties in Current et Products, Improving the Accuracy of the Input Variables, Especially Precipitation, As Well As the Parameterizations of ET, Are Crucial. 2013 Author(s).

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

2016-08-01

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

NCEP TOVS & SBUV/2 Column Ozone GRIB Format Daily L3 Global 1 Deg Lat/Lon

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — TOAST is a new near real-time operational ozone map generated by combining TOVS tropospheric and lower stratospheric (4 to 23 km) ozone retrievals with SBUV/2...

The simulation of medicanes in a high-resolution regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cavicchia, Leone [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany); Ca' Foscari University, Venice (Italy); Storch, Hans von [Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany); University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, Hamburg (Germany)

2012-11-15

Medicanes, strong mesoscale cyclones with tropical-like features, develop occasionally over the Mediterranean Sea. Due to the scarcity of observations over sea and the coarse resolution of the long-term reanalysis datasets, it is difficult to study systematically the multidecadal statistics of sub-synoptic medicanes. Our goal is to assess the long-term variability and trends of medicanes, obtaining a long-term climatology through dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In this paper, we examine the robustness of this method and investigate the value added for the study of medicanes. To do so, we performed several climate mode simulations with a high resolution regional atmospheric model (CCLM) for a number of test cases described in the literature. We find that the medicanes are formed in the simulations, with deeper pressures and stronger winds than in the driving global NCEP reanalysis. The tracks are adequately reproduced. We conclude that our methodology is suitable for constructing multi-decadal statistics and scenarios of current and possible future medicane activities. (orig.)

Interannual Variability in the Meridional Transport of Water Vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Judah L.; Salstein, David A.; Rosen, Richard D.

2000-01-01

The zonal-mean meridional transport of water vapor across the globe is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis for 1948-97. The shape of the meridional profile of the climatological mean transport closely resembles that of previous mean climate descriptions, but values tend to be notably larger than in climatologies derived from radiosonde-only-based analyses. The unprecedented length of the NCEP-NCAR dataset invites a focus on interannual variations in the zonal-mean moisture transport, and these results for northern winter are highlighted here. Although interannual variability in the transport is typically small at most latitudes, a significant ENSO signal is present, marked by a strengthening of water vapor transports over much of the winter hemisphere during warm events. Because of an increase in tropical sea surface temperatures and in the frequency of warm events relative to cold events in the latter half of the 50-yr record, this interannual signal projects onto an overall trend toward enhanced meridional moisture transports in the global hydrological cycle.

Regional tendencies of extreme wind characteristics in Hungary

Science.gov (United States)

Radics, Dr.; Bartholy, Dr.; Péliné

2009-09-01

Human activities have substantial effects on climate system. It has already accepted that change in the long-term climatic mean state will have significant consequences in the global economy and society, but the most important effects of climate change may come from changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes. It is therefore of great interest to document the extremes of surface wind that could assist in estimating the regional effects of climate change. The research presented is based on 34-year-long (1975-2008) wind (speed, direction, and wind gust) data sets of 36 Hungarian synoptic meteorological stations. After processing (including digitalisation of old instrumental records, quality control and homogenisation of wind time series) the measured wind data sets, time series and complex wind climate analysis were carried out. Spatial and temporal distributions of mean and extreme wind climate characteristics were estimated, wind extremes and trends were interpolated and mapped over the country. Finally, measured and reanalysed (ERA40) wind data were compared over Hungary, in order to verify not only the validity of ERA40 reanalysed data sets, but the adaptability of climate simulation results in estimation of regional climate change effects.

Remote wind stress influence on mean sea level in a subtropical coastal region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mabel Calim Costa

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to assess the relative influence of remote wind stress on mean sea level (MSL variations in the coastal region of Cananeia (Sao Paulo State, Southern Brazil during the period from 1/1/1955 to 12/31/1993. An optimized low-pass Thompson filter for the study area, and spectral analysis (cross spectrum, coherence and phase lag of the relationship between the MSL and both parallel (T// and perpendicular (T| wind stress components were applied. These were extracted from four grid points of the NCEP/NCAR global model. The predominance of annual oscillations as those of greatest coherence and energy, of periods of approximately 341 days (frequency of 0.00293 cpd and 410 days (frequency of 0.00244 cpd, respectively, were observed. Offshore NCEP/NCAR grid points were those with the highest coherence and energy throughout the study in relation to the observed MSL. This may be linked to the restriction of the NCEP/NCAR model as regards the inland limit. It is also concluded that remote wind stress may play an important role in several MSL time scales, including the annual ones. Based on criteria such as coherence and energy peaks, the wind stress component of greatest effect on MSL was the parallel one.O presente estudo tem por objetivo avaliar a influência relativa de tensão do vento remoto na variação do nível médio do mar (NMM para a região costeira de Cananéia (SP durante o período de 1/1/1955 a 31/12/1993. Foram aplicados um filtro de passa-baixa de Thompson (1983, otimizado para a região de Cananéia, além de análise espectral (espectro cruzado, coerência e defasagem entre o NMM e as componentes paralela (T// e perpendicular (T| da tensão do vento. Estas foram extraídas de quatro pontos de grade do modelo global NCEP/NCAR. Observou-se a predominância das oscilações anuais como aquelas de maior coerência e energia, destacando-se os períodos de aproximadamente 341 dias (frequência de 0,00293 cpd e 410

GLOBAL WARMING. Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating.

Science.gov (United States)

Nieves, Veronica; Willis, Josh K; Patzert, William C

2015-07-31

Recent modeling studies have proposed different scenarios to explain the slowdown in surface temperature warming in the most recent decade. Some of these studies seem to support the idea of internal variability and/or rearrangement of heat between the surface and the ocean interior. Others suggest that radiative forcing might also play a role. Our examination of observational data over the past two decades shows some significant differences when compared to model results from reanalyses and provides the most definitive explanation of how the heat was redistributed. We find that cooling in the top 100-meter layer of the Pacific Ocean was mainly compensated for by warming in the 100- to 300-meter layer of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the past decade since 2003. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Global health and global health ethics

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Benatar, S. R; Brock, Gillian

2011-01-01

...? What are our responsibilities and how can we improve global health? Global Health and Global Health Ethics addresses these questions from the perspective of a range of disciplines, including medicine, philosophy and the social sciences...

Studies of global warming and global energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inaba, Atsushi

1993-01-01

Global warming caused by increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration has been the focus of many recent global energy studies. CO 2 is emitted to the atmosphere mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. This means that global warming is fundamentally a problem of the global energy system. An analysis of the findings of recent global energy studies is made in this report. The results are categorized from the viewpoint of concern about global warming. The analysis includes energy use and CO 2 emissions, measures taken to restrain CO 2 emissions and the cost of such measure, and suggestions for long term global energy generation. Following this comparative analysis, each of the studies is reviewed in detail. (author) 63 refs

Evaporation-precipitation variability over Indian Ocean and its assessment in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pokhrel, Samir; Parekh, Anant; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Rahaman, Hasibur [Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad (India); Gairola, Rakesh Mohan [Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad (India)

2012-11-15

An attempt has been made to explore all the facets of Evaporation-Precipitation (E-P) distribution and variability over the Indian Ocean (IO) basin using Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data and subsequently a thorough assessment of the latest version of National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version-2 is done. This study primarily focuses on two fundamental issues, first, the core issue of pervasive cold SST bias in the CFS simulation in the context of moisture flux exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and second, the fidelity of the model in simulating mean and variability of E-P and its elemental components associated with the climatic anomalies occurring over the Indian and the Pacific ocean basin. Valuation of evaporation and precipitation, the two integral component of E-P, along with the similar details of wind speed, air-sea humidity difference ({Delta}Q) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are performed. CFS simulation is vitiated by the presence of basin wide systematic positive bias in evaporation, {Delta}Q and similar negative bias in wind speed and SST. Bifurcation of the evaporation bias into its components reveals that bias in air humidity (Q{sub a}) is basically responsible for the presence of pervasive positive evaporation bias. The regions where CFS does not adhere to the observed wind-evaporation and Q{sub a} -evaporation relation was found to lie over the northern Arabian Sea (AS), the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the western Equatorial IO. Evaporation bias is found to control a significant quantum of cold SST bias over most of the basin owing to its intimate association with SST in a coupled feedback system. This area is stretched over the almost entire north IO, north of 15 {sup circle} S excluding a small equatorial strip, where the evaporation bias may essentially explain 20-100 % of cold SST bias. This percentage is maximum over the western IO, central AS and BoB. The CFS

American Meteorological Society (AMS) - The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Data and Accessibility

Science.gov (United States)

daSilva, Arlindo

2009-01-01

The AM Short Course on The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data and accessibility will be held on January 11, 2009 preceding the 89th Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Arizona. Preliminary programs, registration, hotel, and general information will be posted on the AMS Web site in mid-September 2008. Retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) have been established as an important tool in weather and climate research over the last decade. As computer power increases, the data assimilation and modeling systems improve and become more advanced, the input data quality increases and so reanalyses become more reliable. In 2008, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office began producing a new reanalysis called the Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The initial data from the reanalysis has been made available to the community and should be complete through 30 years (1979-present) by Fall of 2009. MERRA has taken advantage of the advancement of computing resources to provide users more data than previously available. The native spatial resolution is nominally 1/2 degrees and the surface two dimensional data are one hourly frequency. In addition to the meteorological analysis data, complete mass, energy and momentum budget data and also stratospheric data are provided. The eventual data holdings will exceed 150Tb. In order to facilitate user accessibility to the data, it will be stored in online hard drives (not tape storage) and available through several portals. Subsetting tools will also be available to allow users to tailor their data requests. The goals of this short course are to provide hands on users of reanalyses instruction on MERRA systems and also interactive experience with the online data and access tools. The course is intended for students and research scientists who will be actively interested in accessing and applying MERRA data in their weather, climate or applications work. The course has

Atmospheric balance of the humidity and estimate of the precipitation recycled in Colombia according to the re-analysis NCEP/NCAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cuartas, Adriana; Poveda, German

2002-01-01

The magnitudes of the entrance humidity flows and exit are considered and the amount of precipitable water at different levels from the atmospheric column on Colombia. The water balance is quantified in the Colombian atmosphere; the regions and the atmospheric levels of entrance and exit of humidity are identified. The hypothesis that in the long term the net atmospheric humidity influence must be equal to the average of long term of the net run-off is verified. In addition, the percentage of recycled precipitation is considered on the Colombian territory. The variability during the two phases of the ENSO is analyzed. The calculations are made with the information of the climatic project Reanalysis developed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with the collaboration of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Environmental Satellite of the U.S.A. For this work it was counted on monthly information of 41 years between 1958-1998. The hydrological information was obtained from the project Balances Hidrologicos de Colombia, 1999, made by the Posgrado de Recursos Hidraulicos, de la Universidad Nacional, with the support of COLCIENCIAS and the Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica-UPME. The results showed the average value of the net influence of humidity to the atmosphere of Colombia is of 5716 mm/year, with a great variability in both phases of the ENSO. The greater humidity advection towards Colombia occurs in the low levels of pressure (between 1000 and 850 hPa), and originating of all the directions, mainly of trade winds of the east and trade winds of the west. Also one was that the greater humidity transport towards Colombia occurs in trimesters DJF and MAM, with average values 505,1 and 606,6 mm/year, respectively. It was observed that the hypothesis that in the long term, the net atmospheric flux, is equal to the net terrestrial run-off, reasonably is adapted for

Globalization challenges in a globalized world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dr.Sc. Gjon Boriçi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Globalization is an ongoing phenomenon trying to redefine the economic, social, cultural and political dynamics of contemporary societies. The communication among countries and not only them, has been increased expanding political ties, making possible greater economic integration and wider cultural relations combined with augmented global wealth across the world. But, the process of globalization is in wider terms considered a beneficial one, but also viewed by some countries as a menace to national sovereignty and national culture. This paper tries to explain the obstacles to the process of globalization and its attendant benefits. Although globalization has arisen as a result of a more stable world, the factors that had contributed to its rise also help the factions interested to bring destabilization. In an academic approach in this article, between the research and comparative methods, I have been trying to get the maxims between economy, politics and diplomacy in their efforts of affecting the global era.

Estimation and calibration of observation impact signals using the Lanczos method in NOAA/NCEP data assimilation system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Wei

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Despite the tremendous progress that has been made in data assimilation (DA methodology, observing systems that reduce observation errors, and model improvements that reduce background errors, the analyses produced by the best available DA systems are still different from the truth. Analysis error and error covariance are important since they describe the accuracy of the analyses, and are directly related to the future forecast errors, i.e., the forecast quality. In addition, analysis error covariance is critically important in building an efficient ensemble forecast system (EFS.

Estimating analysis error covariance in an ensemble-based Kalman filter DA is straightforward, but it is challenging in variational DA systems, which have been in operation at most NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction centers. In this study, we use the Lanczos method in the NCEP (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI DA system to look into other important aspects and properties of this method that were not exploited before. We apply this method to estimate the observation impact signals (OIS, which are directly related to the analysis error variances. It is found that the smallest eigenvalue of the transformed Hessian matrix converges to one as the number of minimization iterations increases. When more observations are assimilated, the convergence becomes slower and more eigenvectors are needed to retrieve the observation impacts. It is also found that the OIS over data-rich regions can be represented by the eigenvectors with dominant eigenvalues.

Since only a limited number of eigenvectors can be computed due to computational expense, the OIS is severely underestimated, and the analysis error variance is consequently overestimated. It is found that the mean OIS values for temperature and wind components at typical model levels are increased by about 1.5 times when the number of eigenvectors is doubled

Anti-Globalization or Alter-Globalization? Mapping the Political Ideology of the Global Justice Movement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Steger, Manfred; Wilson, E.K.

Steger, Manfred B. and Erin K. Wilson. (2012) Anti-Globalization or Alter-Globalization? Mapping the Political Ideology of the Global Justice Movement. International Studies Quarterly, doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00740.x?(c) 2012 International Studies Association Globalization has unsettled

Global Drought Monitoring and Forecasting based on Satellite Data and Land Surface Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Wood, E. F.

2010-12-01

objective quantification and tracking of their spatial-temporal characteristics. Further we present strategies for merging various sources of information, including bias correction of satellite precipitation and assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture, which can augment the monitoring in regions where satellite precipitation is most uncertain. Ongoing work is adding a drought forecast component based on a successful implementation over the U.S. and agricultural productivity estimates based on output from crop yield models. The forecast component uses seasonal global climate forecasts from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). These are merged with observed climatology in a Bayesian framework to produce ensemble atmospheric forcings that better capture the uncertainties. At the same time, the system bias corrects and downscales the monthly CFS data. We show some initial seasonal (up to 6-month lead) hydrologic forecast results for the African system. Agricultural monitoring is based on the precipitation, temperature and soil moisture from the system to force statistical and process based crop yield models. We demonstrate the feasibility of monitoring major crop types across the world and show a strategy for providing predictions of yields within our drought forecast mode.

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.; Wahl, S.; Keller, J. D.; Bollmeyer, C.

2014-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers 6 years (2007-2012) and is currently extended to 16 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

The high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.

2016-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

A high-resolution regional reanalysis for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.

2015-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

Science.gov (United States)

Bebber, Daniel P; Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J

2016-12-05

Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

Global Citizenship and Global Universities. The Age of Global Interdependence and Cosmopolitanism

Science.gov (United States)

Torres, Carlos Alberto

2015-01-01

This article focuses on the role of global universities and globalisations in an age of global interdependence and cosmopolitanism. Competing agendas that result from actions and reactions to multiple globalisations are considered in relation to global citizenship education. These agendas are crucial in understanding dilemmas of the local and the…

On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. M. Monge-Sanz

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This study evaluates effects and applications of a new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane and water vapour. The new scheme (CoMeCAT is derived from a 3-D full-chemistry-transport model (CTM. It is suitable for any global model, and is shown here to produce realistic profiles in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT 3-D CTM and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts general circulation model (GCM. Results from the new scheme are in good agreement with the full-chemistry CTM CH4 field and with observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE. The scheme is also used to derive stratospheric water increments, which in the CTM produce vertical and latitudinal H2O variations in fair agreement with satellite observations. Stratospheric H2O distributions in the ECMWF GCM show realistic overall features, although concentrations are smaller than in the CTM run (up to 0.5 ppmv smaller above 10 hPa. The potential of the new CoMeCAT tracer for evaluating stratospheric transport is exploited to assess the impacts of nudging the free-running GCM to ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. The nudged GCM shows similar transport patterns to the offline CTM forced by the corresponding reanalysis data. The new scheme also impacts radiation and temperature in the model. Compared to the default CH4 climatology and H2O used by the ECMWF radiation scheme, the main effect on ECMWF temperatures when considering both CH4 and H2O from CoMeCAT is a decrease of up to 1.0 K over the tropical mid/low stratosphere. The effect of using the CoMeCAT scheme for radiative forcing (RF calculations is investigated using the offline Edwards–Slingo radiative transfer model. Compared to the default model option of a tropospheric global 3-D CH4 value, the CoMeCAT distribution produces an overall change in the annual mean net RF of up to −30 mW m−2.

Collaborative Project: High-resolution Global Modeling of the Effects of Subgrid-Scale Clouds and Turbulence on Precipitating Cloud Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Randall, David A. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Science

2015-11-01

We proposed to implement, test, and evaluate recently developed turbulence parameterizations, using a wide variety of methods and modeling frameworks together with observations including ARM data. We have successfully tested three different turbulence parameterizations in versions of the Community Atmosphere Model: CLUBB, SHOC, and IPHOC. All three produce significant improvements in the simulated climate. CLUBB will be used in CAM6, and also in ACME. SHOC is being tested in the NCEP forecast model. In addition, we have achieved a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of the PDF-based parameterizations of turbulence and convection.

Globalization

OpenAIRE

Tulio Rosembuj

2006-01-01

There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

Global Awareness in the Classroom: Global Classroom Initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Education Canada, 2004

2004-01-01

As countries around the world move toward global integration, knowledge of how Canada interrelates globally is becoming an increasingly useful asset. It is important that young Canadians learn what it means to become responsible global citizens. Awareness about global issues and appreciation of Canada's efforts in international development offer a…

Globalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tulio Rosembuj

2006-12-01

Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

Spring snow albedo feedback over northern Eurasia: Comparing in situ measurements with reanalysis products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Wegmann

2018-06-01

Full Text Available This study uses daily observations and modern reanalyses in order to evaluate reanalysis products over northern Eurasia regarding the spring snow albedo feedback (SAF during the period from 2000 to 2013. We used the state-of-the-art reanalyses from ERA-Interim/Land and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2 as well as an experimental set-up of ERA-Interim/Land with prescribed short grass as land cover to enhance the comparability with the station data while underlining the caveats of comparing in situ observations with gridded data. Snow depth statistics derived from daily station data are well reproduced in all three reanalyses. However day-to-day albedo variability is notably higher at the stations than for any reanalysis product. The ERA-Interim grass set-up shows improved performance when representing albedo variability and generates comparable estimates for the snow albedo in spring. We find that modern reanalyses show a physically consistent representation of SAF, with realistic spatial patterns and area-averaged sensitivity estimates. However, station-based SAF values are significantly higher than in the reanalyses, which is mostly driven by the stronger contrast between snow and snow-free albedo. Switching to grass-only vegetation in ERA-Interim/Land increases the SAF values up to the level of station-based estimates. We found no significant trend in the examined 14-year time series of SAF, but interannual changes of about 0.5 % K−1 in both station-based and reanalysis estimates were derived. This interannual variability is primarily dominated by the variability in the snowmelt sensitivity, which is correctly captured in reanalysis products. Although modern reanalyses perform well for snow variables, efforts should be made to improve the representation of dynamic albedo changes.

Global Strategy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Peter Ping

2013-01-01

Global strategy differs from domestic strategy in terms of content and process as well as context and structure. The content of global strategy can contain five key elements, while the process of global strategy can have six major stages. These are expounded below. Global strategy is influenced...... by rich and complementary local contexts with diverse resource pools and game rules at the national level to form a broad ecosystem at the global level. Further, global strategy dictates the interaction or balance between different entry strategies at the levels of internal and external networks....

Verification of land-atmosphere coupling in forecast models, reanalyses and land surface models using flux site observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dirmeyer, Paul A; Chen, Liang; Wu, Jiexia; Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua; Cash, Benjamin A; Bosilovich, Michael G; Mahanama, Sarith; Koster, Randal D; Santanello, Joseph A; Ek, Michael B; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Dutra, Emanuel; Lawrence, D M

2018-02-01

We confront four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM+GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly under-represent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land-atmosphere coupling), and may over-represent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally under-represent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Our analysis illuminates targets for coupled land-atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally-distributed observational monitoring.

Characteristics of storms that contribute to extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Trigo, Ricardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Ordoñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.

2014-05-01

Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral Grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012). Trigo I. F. (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: A comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn., 26, 127-143.

A mental picture of the greenhouse effect. A pedagogic explanation

Science.gov (United States)

Benestad, Rasmus E.

2017-05-01

The popular picture of the greenhouse effect emphasises the radiation transfer but fails to explain the observed climate change. An old conceptual model for the greenhouse effect is revisited and presented as a useful resource in climate change communication. It is validated against state-of-the-art data, and nontraditional diagnostics show a physically consistent picture. The earth's climate is constrained by well-known and elementary physical principles, such as energy balance, flow, and conservation. Greenhouse gases affect the atmospheric optical depth for infrared radiation, and increased opacity implies higher altitude from which earth's equivalent bulk heat loss takes place. Such an increase is seen in the reanalyses, and the outgoing long-wave radiation has become more diffuse over time, consistent with an increased influence of greenhouse gases on the vertical energy flow from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. The reanalyses further imply increases in the overturning in the troposphere, consistent with a constant and continuous vertical energy flow. The increased overturning can explain a slowdown in the global warming, and the association between these aspects can be interpreted as an entanglement between the greenhouse effect and the hydrological cycle, where reduced energy transfer associated with increased opacity is compensated by tropospheric overturning activity.

Annual cycle of the upper-ocean circulation and properties in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ocean dynamics and its influence on ocean properties in the tropical western Indian Ocean. Surface winds and heat fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis forced the model (Model_NCEP) with initial and ...

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome according to various definitions and hypertriglyceridemic-waist in Malaysian adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laila Ruwaida Mohd Zainuddin

2011-01-01

Conclusions: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was highest using the IDF criteria compared to NCEP ATPIII, modified WHO and hypertriglyceridemic-waist. There was a good concordance of IDF criteria with NCEP ATP III and hypertriglyceridemic-waist criteria.

Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Surkova, Galina V.; Arkhipkin, Victor S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2013-12-01

Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961-2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961-2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

2009-10-15

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

2009-01-01

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome among Malaysians using the International Diabetes Federation, National Cholesterol Education Program and Modified World Health Organization Definitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bee, Ying Tan; Haresh, Kumar Kantilal; Rajibans, Singh

2008-03-01

The World Health Organization (WHO), National Cholesterol Education Program Adults Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) have proposed different criteria to diagnose metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, there is no single definition to accurately diagnose MetS. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of MetS using WHO, NCEP ATP III and IDF in the Malaysian community, and to determine the concordance between these definitions for MetS. 109 men and women aged > 30 years participated in the study, and the prevalence of MetS was determined according to the three definitions. Weight, height, body mass index (BMI), waist-hip circumference, blood pressure, blood lipid profile and plasma fasting glucose were measured. In order to determine the concordance between IDF and the other two definitions, the kappa index (κ-test) was used. The prevalence of MetS (95% confidence interval) was 22.9% (22.8-23.1) by IDF definition, 16.5% (16.3-16.9) by NCEP ATP III definition and 6.4% (6.2-6.6) by modified WHO definition. The sensitivity and specificity of IDF against NCEP ATP III were 88.9% and 90.1% respectively, IDF against WHO definition were 85.7% and 81.4%. The κ statistics for the agreement of the IDF definition was 68.3 ± 0.1 with the NCEP ATP III, and 30.5 ± 0.1 with the modified WHO definition. The prevalence of the MetS among respondents using the IDF definition was highest, followed by NCEP ATP III, and finally modified WHO definition. There was a good concordance between the IDF and NCEP ATP III definitions, and a low concordance between IDF and modified WHO definitions.

Global Peace through the Global University System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cengiz Hakan AYDIN

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Utopia is defined in Encarta Dictionary as “an ideal and perfect place or state, where everyone lives in harmony and everything is for the best.” Developments all around the world especially in the last decade have supported the idea that global peace is nothing but just a utopian dream. However, for centuries a group of believers have always been in search of global peace via different means. This book, titled as “Global Peace through the Global University System”, can be considered as one of the artifacts of this search.Actually this book is a collection of papers presented in working conference on the Global University System (GUS hosted by the University of Tampere, Finland in 1999. The main goal of the conference was bringing international experts to share their philosophy, past and present experiences about the GUS. The conference was held by the University of Tampere because UNESCO has an agreement with the University to establish the UNESCOChair in Global e-Learning.

A regional climate model for the Arctic and the North Atlantic; Ein regionales Klimamodell fuer die Arktis und den Nordatlantik

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berndt, H

2001-07-01

The Arctic and the subpolar region of the North Atlantic with their complex net of mechanisms and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system. Because of the sparse observations and the low resolution of the global models the high-resolution regional climate model REMO provides an improved tool to investigate arctic processes. REMO is based on the former numerical weather prediction model EM of the German Weather Service (DWD) and was further developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPIfM) in Hamburg. It has two different parameterization schemes - the original one called DWD-physics and additionally the ECHAM4-physics from MPIfM. The dynamical scheme is in both cases identical. In a first step REMO is adapted to the new domain. This configuration covers the Arctic and the North Atlantic down to 40 N with a horizontal resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 and 121 x 145 grid points. Different periods are simulated with DWD- and ECHAM4-Physics in forecast - as well as in climate-mode. Lateral boundary conditions are taken from NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Comparing REMO with ship observations in the Labrador Sea yields a better correspondence than the reanalysis data. Simulated precipitation is overestimated most probably due to unrealistic high humidity in the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Observed sensible heat fluxes are much lower than the REMO and NCEP/NCAR simulated fluxes. REMO simulations in climate- and forecast-mode with ECHAM4-parameterizations are compared with measured surface temperatures and precipitation distributions. While there are numerically generated spectral spikes in the NCEP/NCAR precipitation fields in the Arctic, they are not found in the REMO results. In a sensitivity study the impact of higher surface roughness in the marginal ice zone is investigated. Ensemble experiments show the high internal variability masking any signals due to the changed roughness length. This high internal variability is mostly due to the large model domain and the

NCEP Real-time Marine Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly surface marine data gathered by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The basic observational data are edited, using a "trimming" procedure...

Against Globalization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

2013-01-01

In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

Medium-range reference evapotranspiration forecasts for the contiguous United States based on multi-model numerical weather predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Medina, Hanoi; Tian, Di; Srivastava, Puneet; Pelosi, Anna; Chirico, Giovanni B.

2018-07-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in agronomic, forestry, and water resources management. Estimating and forecasting ET0 have long been recognized as a major challenge for researchers and practitioners in these communities. This work explored the potential of multiple leading numerical weather predictions (NWPs) for estimating and forecasting summer ET0 at 101 U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network stations over nine climate regions across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three leading global NWP model forecasts from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset were used in this study, including the single model ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office forecasts (MO), as well as multi-model ensemble forecasts from the combinations of these NWP models. A regression calibration was employed to bias correct the ET0 forecasts. Impact of individual forecast variables on ET0 forecasts were also evaluated. The results showed that the EC forecasts provided the least error and highest skill and reliability, followed by the MO and NCEP forecasts. The multi-model ensembles constructed from the combination of EC and MO forecasts provided slightly better performance than the single model EC forecasts. The regression process greatly improved ET0 forecast performances, particularly for the regions involving stations near the coast, or with a complex orography. The performance of EC forecasts was only slightly influenced by the size of the ensemble members, particularly at short lead times. Even with less ensemble members, EC still performed better than the other two NWPs. Errors in the radiation forecasts, followed by those in the wind, had the most detrimental effects on the ET0 forecast performances.

Symbolic Dynamics of Reanalysis Data

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, J. W.; Dickens, P. M.

2003-12-01

Symbolic dynamics1 is the study of sequences of symbols belonging to a discrete set of elements, the most commmon example being a sequence of ones and zeroes. Often the set of symbols is derived from a timeseries of a continuous variable through the introduction of a partition function--a process called symbolization. Symbolic dynamics has been used widely in the physical sciences; a geophysical example being the application of C1 and C2 complexity2 to hourly precipitation station data3. The C1 and C2 complexities are computed by examining subsequences--or words--of fixed length L in the limit of large values of L. Recent advances in information theory have led to techniques focused on the growth rate of the Shannon entropy and its asymptotic behavior in the limit of long words--levels of entropy convergence4. The result is a set of measures one can use to quantify the amount of memory stored in the sequence, whether or not an observer is able to synchronize to the sequence, and with what confidence it may be predicted. These techniques may also be used to uncover periodic behavior in the sequence. We are currently applying complexity theory and levels of entropy convergence to gridpoint timeseries from the NCAR/NCEP 50-year reanalysis5. Topics to be discussed include: a brief introduction to symbolic dynamics; a description of the partition function/symbolization strategy; a discussion of C1 and C2 complexity and entropy convergence rates and their utility; and example applications of these techniques to NCAR/NCEP 50-reanalyses gridpoint timeseries, resulting in maps of C1 and C2 complexities and entropy convergence rates. Finally, we will discuss how these results may be used to validate climate models. 1{Hao, Bai-Lin, Elementary Symbolic Dynamics and Chaos in Dissipative Systems, Wold Scientific, Singapore (1989)} 2{d'Alessandro, G. and Politi, A., Phys. Rev. Lett., 64, 1609-1612 (1990).} 3{Elsner, J. and Tsonis, A., J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 400-405 (1993).} 4

ENSO events are induced by the Global Atmosphere Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri

2014-05-01

The large-scale anomalies in the planetary fields of the principal hydro-meteorological characteristics were found to appear prior the beginning and during the main phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies were interpreted as manifestation of the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation (GAO) in dynamics of the modern climatic system. The key feature of the GAO baric structure is a large-scale positive anomaly in tropical area (30N-30S, 50W-170E) surrounded by negative anomaly bending its outer boundaries. Eventually, such reconstruction of the atmospheric pressure field over tropical zone as a consequence of the GAO leads to Walker circulation cell reversal which is immediately followed by the next El Niño process starting. Spatio-temporal structure of the anomalous hydro-meteorological fields developing under impact of the GAO was analyzed using the monthly-mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level (HadSLP2) and near-surface temperature (CRUTEM4) prepared by GB Met Office Hadley Centre for period of 1948-2012, also we used wind data from US NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the same period. Due to the presence of feed-forwards and feedbacks in the climate dynamics, the large-scale anomalies of characteristics appearing after the GAO cause their back effect on the system of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land. This is the secondary impact which can be implemented either by direct exchange of properties between the adjacent areas (this is seen most explicitly in the Indo-Pacific Region), or owing to teleconnections between the concrete climatic subsystems in different parts of the Earth. It is apparently that the secondary, or indirect, GAO impact spreading through the system of general atmospheric circulation has a certain phase shift in different areas, which depends first on the distance from the respective climatic anomalies, in particular, from the most intensive of them, appearing in the equatorial

Globalization of nuclear activities and global governance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sefidvash, Farhang

1997-01-01

The safe production of nuclear energy as well as the disarmament of nuclear weapons and the peaceful utilization of nuclear materials resulting from dismantling of such weapons are some of the formidable problems of global governance. The Commission on Global Governance was established in 1992 in the belief that international developments had created a unique opportunity for strengthening global co-operation to meet the challenge of securing peace, achieving sustainable development, and universalizing democracy. Here a summary of their proposals on the globalization of nuclear activities to face challenges of the coming century is given. To follow up their activities by the worlds community in general. The research Centre for Global Governance (RCGG) at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul was established. Already a great number of researchers from many different countries have adhered to the Centre. Here the program of the RCGG is described. (author)

Globalization of nuclear activities and global governance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sefidvash, Farhang [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Nuclear

1997-07-01

The safe production of nuclear energy as well as the disarmament of nuclear weapons and the peaceful utilization of nuclear materials resulting from dismantling of such weapons are some of the formidable problems of global governance. The Commission on Global Governance was established in 1992 in the belief that international developments had created a unique opportunity for strengthening global co-operation to meet the challenge of securing peace, achieving sustainable development, and universalizing democracy. Here a summary of their proposals on the globalization of nuclear activities to face challenges of the coming century is given. To follow up their activities by the worlds community in general. The research Centre for Global Governance (RCGG) at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul was established. Already a great number of researchers from many different countries have adhered to the Centre. Here the program of the RCGG is described. (author)

How Global is Global Civil Society?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neera Chandhoke

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In recent times the concept of global civil society has made its appearance on national and international intellectual, as well as political agendas, in a major way. It is of some interest that two other concepts, both of which call for transcendence of national boundaries in precisely the same way as global civil society does, have also made their appearance on the scene of intellectual debates at roughly the same time: the concept of cosmopolitanism and that of transnational justice. All three concepts have dramatically expanded the notion of commitment to one’s fellow beings beyond the nation state. And all three concepts have extended critiques of policies that violate the dignity of human beings from national governments to the practices of inter-national institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Forum. In sum the inter-related concepts of global civil society, cosmopolitanism, and transnational justice have greatly enlarged the traditional domain of political theory. And yet for any political theorist who is acutely conscious of the phenomenon of power, these concepts are not unproblematic. For the practices of global civil society may just reinforce the intellectual and the moral power of the West over the postcolonial world. This is particularly true of say global human rights organizations. This paper will attempt to raise some questions of the concept and the practices of global civil society from the perspective of the countries of the South.

Examining the value of global seasonal reference evapotranspiration forecasts tosupport FEWS NET's food insecurity outlooks

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, S.; McEvoy, D.; Hobbins, M.; Husak, G. J.; Huntington, J. L.; Funk, C.; Verdin, J.; Macharia, D.

2017-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team provides food insecurity outlooks for several developing countries in Africa, Central Asia, and Central America. Thus far in terms of agroclimatic conditions that influence food insecurity, FEWS NET's primary focus has been on the seasonal precipitation forecasts while not adequately accounting for the atmospheric evaporative demand, which is also directly related to agricultural production and hence food insecurity, and is most often estimated by reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This presentation reports on the development of a new global ETo seasonal reforecast and skill evaluation with a particular emphasis on the potential use of this dataset by the FEWS NET to support food insecurity early warning. The ETo reforecasts span the 1982-2009 period and are calculated following ASCE's formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by seasonal climate forecasts of monthly mean temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation from NCEP's CFSv2 and NASA's GEOS-5 models. The skill evaluation using deterministic and probabilistic scores focuses on the December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON) seasons. The results indicate that ETo forecasts are a promising tool for early warning of drought and food insecurity. The FEWS NET regions with promising level of skill (correlation >0.35 at lead times of 3 months) include Northern Sub-Saharan Africa (DJF, dry season), Central America (DJF, dry season), parts of East Africa (JJA, wet Season), Southern Africa (JJA, dry season), and Central Asia (MAM, wet season). A case study over parts of East Africa for the JJA season shows that, in combination with the precipitation forecasts, ETo forecasts could have provided early warning of recent severe drought events (e.g., 2002, 2004, 2009) that contributed to substantial food insecurity in the region.

Globalization and deficit and limitations of global governance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stojanović Stanislav

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Character and dynamics of relationships in international politics, in which the stronger return to real politics content in the functioning of the foreign policy of the great powers, unequivocally affirms that globalization does not work to its declining power that is less credible design concept of modern world society. The global financial collapse that hit the world in 2008 is a convincing indication that most of the globalization is discredited. The belief in one humanity is becoming a less desirable concept. At the same time, with the increase in global issues that require solving, there are numerous human activities that involve unique or international regulation. The world is increasingly one homeostatic system of interdependent parts of a continent where many aspects of the borders between countries are difficult or even impossible to sustain. Hence the importance of global factors, some of which will fully depend on the articulation of individual and community life of people in the future, stressing the importance of the issue of joint management to ensure global peace and security and promote the prosperity around the world in a universally acceptable and effective way. Therefore, the demonstrated substantial shortcomings of global governance of the world, although they discourage belief in humanity, did not reduce the objective need for global access to many amenities of modern human existence. Many aspects of security, ranging from the security of the individual to the energy and environmental security in modern conditions are not conceivable without international access. However, global security management has been associated with numerous limitations and challenges.

THE EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION DURING THE CURRENT GLOBAL CRISIS

OpenAIRE

Sabina Tuca

2013-01-01

The current economic crisis constitutes a serious test for the process of globalization. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the current global crisis on economic globalization. To assess the impact of the current crisis on economic globalization, this paper examines the KOF Index of Globalization, before and during the crisis. The findings generally support the idea that economic globalization has been, in fact, weakened, after the onset of the current crisis. However, t...

Globalization

OpenAIRE

Andru?cã Maria Carmen

2013-01-01

The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

GLOBAL GOVERNANCE VS. NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabina TUCA

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The global economic and financial crisis of 2007 highlighted the risks, threats and enormous costs of a global economy in the absence of a global government. The aim of this paper is to emphasize the importance of global governance in a world in which states are facing the erosion of national sovereignty. The two concepts are being analyzed from various points of view, including current challenges and future scenarios. Despite the fact that states, especially major powers, are not prepared to accept some elements of global governance and the limits that they would put on their national sovereignty, recent developments seem to make global governance a key component of the international scene.

Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Menkes, C.E.; Lengaigne, M.; Marchesiello, P.; Jourdain, N.C.; Vincent, E.M.; Lefevre, J.; Chauvin, F.; Royer, J.-F.

Convective Genesis Potential Index; and the Tippett et al. Index (J Clim, 2011), hereafter referred to as TCS. Choosing ERA40, NCEP2, NCEP or JRA25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main...

Global health research needs global networking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ignaciuk, A.; Leemans, R.

2012-01-01

To meet the challenges arising from global environmental change on human health, co-developing common approaches and new alliances of science and society are necessary. The first steps towards defining cross-cutting, health-environment issues were developed by the Global Environmental Change and

Global usability

CERN Document Server

Douglas, Ian

2011-01-01

The concept of usability has become an increasingly important consideration in the design of all kinds of technology. As more products are aimed at global markets and developed through internationally distributed teams, usability design needs to be addressed in global terms. Interest in usability as a design issue and specialist area of research and education has developed steadily in North America and Europe since the 1980's. However, it is only over the last ten years that it has emerged as a global concern. Global Usability provides an introduction to the important issues in globalizing des

Atmospheric and oceanic excitation of decadal-scale Earth orientation variations

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Richard S.; Fukumori, Ichiro; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2005-09-01

The contribution of atmospheric wind and surface pressure and oceanic current and bottom pressure variations during 1949-2002 to exciting changes in the Earth's orientation on decadal timescales is investigated using an atmospheric angular momentum series computed from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis project and an oceanic angular momentum series computed from a near-global ocean model that was forced by surface fluxes from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project. Not surprisingly, since decadal-scale variations in the length of day are caused mainly by interactions between the mantle and core, the effect of the atmosphere and oceans is found to be only about 14% of that observed. More surprisingly, it is found that the effect of atmospheric and oceanic processes on decadal-scale changes in polar motion is also only about 20% (x component) and 38% (y component) of that observed. Therefore redistribution of mass within the atmosphere and oceans does not appear to be the main cause of the Markowitz wobble. It is also found that on timescales between 10 days and 4 years the atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum series used here have very little skill in explaining Earth orientation variations before the mid to late 1970s. This is attributed to errors in both the Earth orientation observations prior to 1976 when measurements from the accurate space-geodetic techniques became available and to errors in the modeled atmospheric fields prior to 1979 when the satellite era of global weather observing systems began.

Verification of high resolution simulation of precipitation and wind in Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Menezes, Isilda; Pereira, Mário; Moreira, Demerval; Carvalheiro, Luís; Bugalho, Lourdes; Corte-Real, João

2017-04-01

Demand of energy and freshwater continues to grow as the global population and demands increase. Precipitation feed the freshwater ecosystems which provides a wealth of goods and services for society and river flow to sustain native species and natural ecosystem functions. The adoption of the wind and hydro-electric power supplies will sustain energy demands/services without restricting the economic growth and accelerated policies scenarios. However, the international meteorological observation network is not sufficiently dense to directly support high resolution climatic research. In this sense, coupled global and regional atmospheric models constitute the most appropriate physical and numerical tool for weather forecasting and downscaling in high resolution grids with the capacity to solve problems resulting from the lack of observed data and measuring errors. Thus, this study aims to calibrate and validate of the WRF regional model from precipitation and wind fields simulation, in high spatial resolution grid cover in Portugal. The simulations were performed in two-way nesting with three grids of increasing resolution (60 km, 20 km and 5 km) and the model performance assessed for the summer and winter months (January and July), using input variables from two different reanalyses and forecasted databases (ERA-Interim and NCEP-FNL) and different forcing schemes. The verification procedure included: (i) the use of several statistics error estimators, correlation based measures and relative errors descriptors; and, (ii) an observed dataset composed by time series of hourly precipitation, wind speed and direction provided by the Portuguese meteorological institute for a comprehensive set of weather stations. Main results suggested the good ability of the WRF to: (i) reproduce the spatial patterns of the mean and total observed fields; (ii) with relatively small values of bias and other errors; and, (iii) and good temporal correlation. These findings are in good

Global solidarity, migration and global health inequity.

Science.gov (United States)

Eckenwiler, Lisa; Straehle, Christine; Chung, Ryoa

2012-09-01

The grounds for global solidarity have been theorized and conceptualized in recent years, and many have argued that we need a global concept of solidarity. But the question remains: what can motivate efforts of the international community and nation-states? Our focus is the grounding of solidarity with respect to global inequities in health. We explore what considerations could motivate acts of global solidarity in the specific context of health migration, and sketch briefly what form this kind of solidarity could take. First, we argue that the only plausible conceptualization of persons highlights their interdependence. We draw upon a conception of persons as 'ecological subjects' and from there illustrate what such a conception implies with the example of nurses migrating from low and middle-income countries to more affluent ones. Next, we address potential critics who might counter any such understanding of current international politics with a reference to real-politik and the insights of realist international political theory. We argue that national governments--while not always or even often motivated by moral reasons alone--may nevertheless be motivated to acts of global solidarity by prudential arguments. Solidarity then need not be, as many argue, a function of charitable inclination, or emergent from an acknowledgment of injustice suffered, but may in fact serve national and transnational interests. We conclude on a positive note: global solidarity may be conceptualized to helpfully address global health inequity, to the extent that personal and transnational interdependence are enough to motivate national governments into action. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Retrieving Precipitable Water Vapor Data Using GPS Zenith Delays and Global Reanalysis Data in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Jiang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available GPS has become a very effective tool to remotely sense precipitable water vapor (PWV information, which is important for weather forecasting and nowcasting. The number of geodetic GNSS stations set up in China has substantially increased over the last few decades. However, GPS PWV derivation requires surface pressure to calculate the precise zenith hydrostatic delay and weighted mean temperature to map the zenith wet delay to precipitable water vapor. GPS stations without collocated meteorological sensors can retrieve water vapor using standard atmosphere parameters, which lead to a decrease in accuracy. In this paper, a method of interpolating NWP reanalysis data to site locations for generating corresponding meteorological elements is explored over China. The NCEP FNL dataset provided by the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and over 600 observed stations from different sources was selected to assess the quality of the results. A one-year experiment was performed in our study. The types of stations selected include meteorological sites, GPS stations, radio sounding stations, and a sun photometer station. Compared with real surface measurements, the accuracy of the interpolated surface pressure and air temperature both meet the requirements of GPS PWV derivation in most areas; however, the interpolated surface air temperature exhibits lower precision than the interpolated surface pressure. At more than 96% of selected stations, PWV differences caused by the differences between the interpolation results and real measurements were less than 1.0 mm. Our study also indicates that relief amplitude exerts great influence on the accuracy of the interpolation approach. Unsatisfactory interpolation results always occurred in areas of strong relief. GPS PWV data generated from interpolated meteorological parameters are consistent with other PWV products (radio soundings, the NWP reanalysis dataset, and sun photometer PWV data. The

Local Reasons to Give Globally: Identity Extension and Global Cooperation.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchan, Nancy R; Jeong, Sophia Soyoung; Ward, A K

2017-11-14

Recent political events across the world suggest a retrenchment from globalization and a possible increase in parochialism. This inward-looking threat from parochialism occurs just as the global community faces growing challenges that require trans-national cooperation. In this research, we question if strong identification with an in-group necessarily leads to parochialism and ultimately is detrimental to global cooperation. Building on research on global social identification, we explore whether strong local identification can expand in inclusiveness to global identification, and among whom this is likely to happen. The results of our global public goods study - conducted in South Korea and the United States - show that high levels of social identification with a local group can extend to the global collective, particularly for individuals who are also high in concern-for-others. Furthermore, this identification translates into behavior that benefits the global, anonymous group at a cost to oneself. These results shed light on how to avoid the trap of parochialism and instead engender cooperative behavior with the broader global community.

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

Science.gov (United States)

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Dose-response relationship of sertindole and haloperidol using the pharmacopsychometric triangle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bech, P; Tanghøj, P; Andreasson, K

2011-01-01

Renewed insight into dose-related effects of sertindole and haloperidol was sought by re-analysing published data for antipsychotic effect, extrapyramidal effect, and patient wellbeing - i.e., the important pharmacopsychometric triangle domains.......Renewed insight into dose-related effects of sertindole and haloperidol was sought by re-analysing published data for antipsychotic effect, extrapyramidal effect, and patient wellbeing - i.e., the important pharmacopsychometric triangle domains....

Feeling global, acting ethically: global identification and fairtrade consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Reese, Gerhard; Kohlmann, Fabienne

2015-01-01

Global identification has become a popular construct in recent psychological debate as it relates to harmonious intergroup relations and a caring for all humanity. Based on social identity theorizing, the current research tests whether global identification can also predict consumer choices, at the expense of lower personal benefit. Importantly, we assumed that concerns about global injustice represent a crucial component of that relation. We predicted that participants who identified strongly with all humanity would rather choose a Fairtrade product alternative over a conventional one, compared with low identifiers. In addition, we assumed that this effect be mediated by perceived global injustice. Both predictions were confirmed in a consumer choice study (N = 68). Overall, global identification and globally relevant consumer behavior seem meaningfully interconnected, and we discuss these findings with regard to recent theoretical developments in Fairtrade consumption research.

Association between Cigarette Smoking and Metabolic Syndrome in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Purpose: To investigate the relationship between metabolic syndrome as defined by using the modified NCEP/ATP III criteria [modified the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP)/Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) criteria] and cigarette smoking in Thai subjects. Methods: This study was carried out among 254 ...

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The coeficients were derived using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data of three months: July, September, November of 1999. The NCEP daily analyzed latent heat uxes and brightness temperatures observed by MSMR were used to derive the coeficients. Validity of the derived ...

GOW2.0: A global wave hindcast of high resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Menendez, Melisa; Perez, Jorge; Losada, Inigo

2016-04-01

, Babanin AV, et al (2010). Semiempirical Dissipation Source Functions for Ocean Waves. Part I: Definition, Calibration, and Validation. J Phys Oceanogr. 2010;40(9):1917-1941. doi:10.1175/2010JPO4324.1. Chawla A, Tolman HL. Obstruction grids for spectral wave models. Ocean Model. 2008;22(1-2):12-25. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.01.003. Reguero BG, Menendez M, Mendez FJ, Minguez R, Losada IJ (2012). A Global Ocean Wave (GOW) calibrated reanalysis from 1948 onwards. Coastal Engineering, 65, 38-55. Tolman HL (2014). User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 4.18. NOAA / NWS / NCEP / MMAB Tech Note. Zieger S, Babanin AV, Rogers WE, Young IR (2015). Observation-based source terms in the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH. Ocean Modelling, 96, 2-25.

Insulin resistance, the metabolic syndrome, and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: a population-based study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W; Rasmussen, Susanne

2007-01-01

Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) criteria, and we quantified IR by the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR). Prevalence of MetSyn was 21% according to IDF criteria and 16% according to NCEP criteria. Accordingly, we defined IDF-HOMA-IR as belonging to the highest 21% of the HOMA-IR distribution......, smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and with IDF-HOMA-IR and IDF-MetSyn included in the same model, the relative risk of an end point was 1.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22 to 2.29) for IDF-HOMA-IR and 1.16 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.60) for IDF-MetSyn. The corresponding figures for NCEP......, and NCEP-HOMA-IR as belonging to the highest 16% of the HOMA-IR distribution. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 9.4 years, the incidence of CV end points (CV death, nonfatal ischemic heart disease, and nonfatal stroke) amounted to 233 cases. In proportional hazard models, adjusting for age, gender...

Insulin resistance, the metabolic syndrome, and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: a population-based study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine Willum; Rasmussen, Susanne

2007-01-01

Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) criteria, and we quantified IR by the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR). Prevalence of MetSyn was 21% according to IDF criteria and 16% according to NCEP criteria. Accordingly, we defined IDF-HOMA-IR as belonging to the highest 21% of the HOMA-IR distribution......, and NCEP-HOMA-IR as belonging to the highest 16% of the HOMA-IR distribution. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 9.4 years, the incidence of CV end points (CV death, nonfatal ischemic heart disease, and nonfatal stroke) amounted to 233 cases. In proportional hazard models, adjusting for age, gender......, smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and with IDF-HOMA-IR and IDF-MetSyn included in the same model, the relative risk of an end point was 1.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22 to 2.29) for IDF-HOMA-IR and 1.16 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.60) for IDF-MetSyn. The corresponding figures for NCEP-HOMA-IR...

The national cholesterol education program diet vs a diet lower in carbohydrates and higher in protein and monounsaturated fat: a randomized trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Aude, Y Wady; Agatston, Arthur S; Lopez-Jimenez, Francisco; Lieberman, Eric H; Marie Almon; Hansen, Melinda; Rojas, Gerardo; Lamas, Gervasio A; Hennekens, Charles H

2004-10-25

In the United States, obesity is a major clinical and public health problem causing diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, as well as increasing cardiovascular and total mortality. Dietary restrictions of calories and saturated fat are beneficial. However, it remains unclear whether replacement of saturated fat with carbohydrates (as in the US National Cholesterol Education Program [NCEP] diet) or protein and monounsaturated fat (as in our isocaloric modified low-carbohydrate [MLC] diet, which is lower in total carbohydrates but higher in protein, monounsaturated fat, and complex carbohydrates) is optimal. We randomized 60 participants (29 women and 31 men) to the NCEP or the MLC diet and evaluated them every 2 weeks for 12 weeks. They were aged 28 to 71 years (mean age, 44 years in the NCEP and 46 years in the MLC group). A total of 36% of participants from the NCEP group and 35% from the MLC group had a body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters) greater than 27. The primary end point was weight loss, and secondary end points were blood lipid levels and waist-to-hip ratio. Weight loss was significantly greater in the MLC (13.6 lb) than in the NCEP group (7.5 lb), a difference of 6.1 lb (P = .02). There were no significant differences between the groups for total, low density, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, or the proportion of small, dense low-density lipoprotein particles. There were significantly favorable changes in all lipid levels within the MLC but not within the NCEP group. Waist-to-hip ratio was not significantly reduced between the groups (P = .27), but it significantly decreased within the MLC group (P = .009). Compared with the NCEP diet, the MLC diet, which is lower in total carbohydrates but higher in complex carbohydrates, protein, and monounsaturated fat, caused significantly greater weight loss over 12 weeks. There were no significant differences between the groups in

Designing Collaborative Developmental Standards by Refactoring of the Earth Science Models, Libraries, Workflows and Frameworks.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirvis, E.; Iredell, M.

2015-12-01

The operational (OPS) NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) suite, traditionally, consist of a large set of multi- scale HPC models, workflows, scripts, tools and utilities, which are very much depending on the variety of the additional components. Namely, this suite utilizes a unique collection of the in-house developed 20+ shared libraries (NCEPLIBS), certain versions of the 3-rd party libraries (like netcdf, HDF, ESMF, jasper, xml etc.), HPC workflow tool within dedicated (sometimes even vendors' customized) HPC system homogeneous environment. This domain and site specific, accompanied with NCEP's product- driven large scale real-time data operations complicates NCEP collaborative development tremendously by reducing chances to replicate this OPS environment anywhere else. The NOAA/NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) missions to develop and improve numerical weather, climate, hydrological and ocean prediction through the partnership with the research community. Realizing said difficulties, lately, EMC has been taken an innovative approach to improve flexibility of the HPC environment by building the elements and a foundation for NCEP OPS functionally equivalent environment (FEE), which can be used to ease the external interface constructs as well. Aiming to reduce turnaround time of the community code enhancements via Research-to-Operations (R2O) cycle, EMC developed and deployed several project sub-set standards that already paved the road to NCEP OPS implementation standards. In this topic we will discuss the EMC FEE for O2R requirements and approaches in collaborative standardization, including NCEPLIBS FEE and models code version control paired with the models' derived customized HPC modules and FEE footprints. We will share NCEP/EMC experience and potential in the refactoring of EMC development processes, legacy codes and in securing model source code quality standards by using combination of the Eclipse IDE, integrated with the

Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ying; Zhu, Jieshun; Li, Zhongxian; Chen, Haishan; Zeng, Gang

2017-08-01

This study examined the global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions by a so-called multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization method which was applied in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Different from most operational climate prediction practices which are initialized by a specific ocean analysis system, the MAE method is based on multiple ocean analyses. In the paper, the MAE method was first justified by analyzing the ocean temperature variability in four ocean analyses which all are/were applied for operational climate predictions either at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts or at NCEP. It was found that these systems exhibit substantial uncertainties in estimating the ocean states, especially at the deep layers. Further, a set of MAE hindcasts was conducted based on the four ocean analyses with CFSv2, starting from each April during 1982-2007. The MAE hindcasts were verified against a subset of hindcasts from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project. Comparisons suggested that MAE shows better SST predictions than CFSRR over most regions where ocean dynamics plays a vital role in SST evolutions, such as the El Niño and Atlantic Niño regions. Furthermore, significant improvements were also found in summer precipitation predictions over the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for which the local SST prediction improvements should be responsible. The prediction improvements by MAE imply a problem for most current climate predictions which are based on a specific ocean analysis system. That is, their predictions would drift towards states biased by errors inherent in their ocean initialization system, and thus have large prediction errors. In contrast, MAE arguably has an advantage by sampling such structural uncertainties, and could efficiently cancel these errors out in their predictions.

A Comparison of HWRF, ARW and NMM Models in Hurricane Katrina (2005 Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anjaneyulu Yerramilli

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005 was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM. The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina.

Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.

SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Russian and foreign, tend to interpret globalization processes exclusively from the position of conformism, and for some of the researchers globalization became the "sacred cow", which one may only worship. Critical analysis of the processes associated with globalization is given a hostile reception. In response to criticism of globalization, one can hear the very same argument: "globalization in inevitable!" Such a state of affairs, the very least, causes perplexity. Some of the world development trends been observed over the past years raise serious concerns about the security and welfare of the peoples of the world. One of such trends has been the globalization of shadow economic activities. Methods of fight against the criminal economy been applied in international practice can be grouped into: 1 punitive enforcement (or criminal-legal methods and 2 socio-economic methods. As the results of various research works evidence punitive enforcement methods not supported by socio-economic measures not effective enough. Toughening the control over criminal economic activities in the absence of preventive and corrective actions aiming to neutralize institutional, social and other stimuli facilitating criminalization of economic activities can result in large losses of financial assets in the form of mass capital flight

Shadow Globalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Russian and foreign, tend to interpret globalization processes exclusively from the position of conformism, and for some of the researchers globalization became the "sacred cow", which one may only worship. Critical analysis of the processes associated with globalization is given a hostile reception. In response to criticism of globalization, one can hear the very same argument: "globalization in inevitable!" Such a state of affairs, the very least, causes perplexity. Some of the world development trends been observed over the past years raise serious concerns about the security and welfare of the peoples of the world. One of such trends has been the globalization of shadow economic activities. Methods of fight against the criminal economy been applied in international practice can be grouped into: 1 punitive enforcement (or criminal-legal methods and 2 socio-economic methods. As the results of various research works evidence punitive enforcement methods not supported by socio-economic measures not effective enough. Toughening the control over criminal economic activities in the absence of preventive and corrective actions aiming to neutralize institutional, social and other stimuli facilitating criminalization of economic activities can result in large losses of financial assets in the form of mass capital flight

Prevalence of the Metabolic Syndrome in Renal Transplant Recipients

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Prevalence of the Metabolic Syndrome in Renal Transplant Recipients. ... Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) criteria and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. ... Results: By using the NCEP-ATP III criteria 26 out of 91 patients (28.6%) had the metabolic syndrome. MS was ...

Climate Forecast System

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

DaimlerChrysler - powertrain-strategy. Global requirements - global solutions; DaimlerChrysler - Powertrain-Strategie. Globale Anforderungen - Globale Loesungen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mikulic, L. [Mercedes Car Group, DaimlerChrysler AG, Mercedes-Benz Technology Center, Stuttgart (Germany); Lee, R. [DaimlerChrysler Corporation, Auburn Hills, MI (United States)

2007-07-01

'Globalization' - few concepts have shaped the last fifteen years like this has. For some it is a synonym for unexpected economic and social revolution, a threatening change in familiar arrangements, whilst others see the coalescence of global structures as, more than anything, a challenge - which, if mastered, offers endless possibilities for success. The challenges facing an automotive manufacturer in a globalized world are of quite a different nature. Not least, the constantly increasing competitive pressure has reduced the number of independent automotive manufacturers, in what is known as the Triad (Europe, Japan and North America), from 42 at the beginning of the 1960's to just 15 today. Also in Europe, consolidation has led, on the one hand, to a reduction in individual brands and on the other, to a number of collaborative projects between companies. Even in the dynamically growing East Asia markets, where the number of independent carmakers is still large, such collaborations have already occurred. In the near future much dynamics can be expected within the two fastest growing markets, China and India. Within these competitive markets, a globally operating company like DaimlerChrysler is faced with new challenges. (orig.)

Globally Happy: Individual Globalization, Expanded Capacities, and Subjective Wellbeing

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Ming-Chang; Chang, Heng-Hao; Chen, Wan-chi

2012-01-01

Deep integration of Asia into the global society necessarily affects wellbeing of local populations. This study proposes a notion of "extend capacities" to explain the relationships between individual globalization and subjective wellbeing among Asian populations in a context of increasing global integration. Using Amartya Sen's theory…

LOCALIZATION OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM IN GLOBAL CITIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. A. Vershinina

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the S. Sassen’s research and writing focuses on globalization (including social, economic and political dimensions, global cities, migration, the new networked technologies, and changes within the liberal state that result from current transnational conditions. The main features of the global cities are examined on examples. The global economy is far from being placeless, has and needs very specific territorial insertions, and that this need is sharpest in the case of highly globalized and electronic sectors such as finance. Large corporate firms needed access to a whole new mix of complex specialized services almost impossible to produce in-house as had been the practice. This new economic logic would generate high-level jobs and lowwage jobs; it would need far fewer middle-range jobs than traditional corporations. The transformation of the socio-economic systems at the global and national levels, the associated changes of urban communities life is considered.

Whose global art (history?: Ancient art as global art

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cynthia Colburn

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Discourse on global art or art history arguably dominates the field of art history today in terms of curriculum and research. This discourse cuts across time and space, impacting all art historical specializations, from prehistoric to contemporary, and from Africa to the Americas. Yet, the mainstream theoretical discourse on global art or art history focuses almost explicitly on contemporary and, to a lesser extent, modern art, operating from the premise that only these arts were created in an age of globalization and, thus, emphasize hybridity. This essay seeks to expand the mainstream theoretical discourse regarding global art to pre-modern examples, given that artistic exchange and hybridity dates as early as the prehistoric era all over the world and is not dependent on newer technologies. Indeed, one might argue that the study of pre-modern examples of global art could provide a powerful historical lens through which to analyze contemporary global art.

Prediction of cardiovascular and total mortality in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients by the WHO definition for the metabolic syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, G T-C; So, W-Y; Chan, N N; Chan, W-B; Tong, P C-Y; Li, J; Yeung, V; Chow, C-C; Ozaki, R; Ma, R C-W; Cockram, C S; Chan, J C-N

2006-01-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MES) in type 2 diabetic patients and the predictive values of the World Health Organization (WHO) and National Cholesterol Education Programme (NCEP) definitions and the individual components of the MES on total and cardiovascular mortality. A prospective analysis of a consecutive cohort of 5202 Chinese type 2 diabetic patients recruited between July 1994 and April 2001. The prevalence of the MES was 49.2-58.1% depending on the use of various criteria. There were 189 deaths (men: 100 and women: 89) in these 5205 patients during a median (interquartile range) follow-up period of 2.1 (0.3-3.6 years). Of these, 164 (87%) were classified as cardiovascular deaths. Using the NCEP criterion, patients with MES had a death rate similar to those without (3.51 vs. 3.85%). By contrast, based on the WHO criteria, patients with MES had a higher mortality rate than those without (4.3 vs. 2.4%, p = 0.002). Compared to patients with neither NCEP- nor WHO-defined MES, only the group with MES defined by the WHO, but not NCEP, criterion had significantly higher mortality rate (2.6 vs. 6.8%, p hypertension, low BMI and albuminuria were the key predictors for these adverse events. In Chinese type 2 diabetic patients, the WHO criterion has a better discriminative power over the NCEP criterion for predicting death. Among the various components of the MES defined either by WHO or NCEP, hypertension, albuminuria and low BMI were the main predictors of cardiovascular and total mortality.

Globalization and democracy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DEEPAK NAYYAR

2015-09-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe gathering momentum of globalization in the world economy has coincided with the spread of political democracy across countries. Economies have become global. But politics remains national. This essay explores the relationship between globalization and democracy, which is neither linear nor characterized by structural rigidities. It seeks to analyze how globalization might constrain degrees of freedom for nation states and space for democratic politics, and how political democracy within countries might exercise some checks and balances on markets and globalization. The essential argument is that the relationship between globalization and democracy is dialectical and does not conform to ideological caricatures.

Global warming

CERN Document Server

Hulme, M

1998-01-01

Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

Building Global Citizenship: Engaging Global Issues, Practicing Civic Skills

Science.gov (United States)

Brunell, Laura A.

2013-01-01

How can international politics courses be used to generate global civic engagement? The article describes how experiential learning can be used to stimulate student interest in issues of contemporary, global significance and to build students' repertoire of globally and locally relevant civic skills. It describes how students can become active…

From conceptual pluralism to practical agreement on policy: global responsibility for global health.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruger, Jennifer Prah; Hammonds, Rachel; Ooms, Gorik; Barry, Donna; Chapman, Audrey; Van Damme, Wim

2015-10-28

As the human cost of the global economic crisis becomes apparent the ongoing discussions surrounding the post-2015 global development framework continue at a frenzied pace. Given the scale and scope of increased globalization moving forward in a post-Millennium Development Goals era, to protect and realize health equity for all people, has never been more challenging or more important. The unprecedented nature of global interdependence underscores the importance of proposing policy solutions that advance realizing global responsibility for global health. This article argues for advancing global responsibility for global health through the creation of a Global Fund for Health. It suggests harnessing the power of the exceptional response to the combined epidemics of AIDS, TB and Malaria, embodied in the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, to realize an expanded, reconceptualized Global Fund for Health. However this proposal creates both an analytical quandary embedded in conceptual pluralism and a practical dilemma for the scope and raison d'etre of a new Global Fund for Health. To address these issues we offer a logical framework for moving from conceptual pluralism in the theories supporting global responsibility for health to practical agreement on policy to realize this end. We examine how the innovations flowing from this exceptional response can be coupled with recent ideas and concepts, for example a global social protection floor, a Global Health Constitution or a Framework Convention for Global Health, that share the global responsibility logic that underpins a Global Fund for Health. The 2014 Lancet Commission on Global Governance for Health Report asks whether a single global health protection fund would be better for global health than the current patchwork of global and national social transfers. We concur with this suggestion and argue that there is much room for practical agreement on a Global Fund for Health that moves from the

Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

Science.gov (United States)

Aubrecht, Gordon

2009-04-01

Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

The Global Economic Crisis and the Global Accumulation of Capital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wojciech Błasiak

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The article presents a thesis that the current global economic crisis is the Second Great Depression, after the First Great Depression of the 30s. This is a global crisis of capital accumulation, which is caused by insufficient global demand. The author analy - ses the theoretical output of John Maynard Keynes, Michał Kalecki, Paul Baran and Paul Sweezy. The post-war „Golden Age” of the capitalist economy ended in 1973 with a de - ep stag flation of the 70s and 80s. Capitals searching for profitable investment, started to be invested in financial speculation, growing since the 80s. This speculation was enabled on a global scale by the Washington Consensus in the 90s. The explosion of financializa - tion of the global economy began. The author presents the analyses of Paul Sweezy and Harry Magdoff, who argued that this was financialization of global accumulation of ca - pital in a form of world financial speculation. This process was completed by the finan - cial crash in 2008, which was the implosion of global speculative balloons. Economics and global economic policy faced challenges of creating new world economic order.

Cosmic global strings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sikivie, P.

1991-01-01

The topics are: global strings; the gravitational field of a straight global string; how do global strings behave?; the axion cosmological energy density; computer simulations of the motion and decay of global strings; electromagnetic radiation from the conversion of Nambu-Goldstone bosons in astrophysical magnetic fields. (orig.)

Global Europa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manners, Ian

2010-01-01

at the mythology of ‘global Europa' - the EU in the world. It concludes with a reflection on the way in which the many diverse myths of global Europa compete for daily attention, whether as lore, ideology, or pleasure. In this respect the mythology of global Europa is part of our everyday existence, part of the EU...

INTERPRETING GLOBAL EARTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shahrokh W. Dalpour

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In today’s constantly changing world it is often times difficult to understand thechanges happening around us every second. Some of these changes may be, inthe aggregate,for good, while others may have unappreciated and heavy costs.What isGlobalization? Globalization is “an elimination of barriers to trade,communication, and cultural exchange. The theory behind globalization is thatworldwide openness will promote the inherent wealth of all nations.”(Jones,2012All this encompasses global cultures, international economics and other growingsocial networks such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. Throughout thisanalysis the pros and cons of globalization will be discussed and also whetherornot globalization is in fact as much of a benefit for today’s global economy─as somany think─will be determined. First,identification of the various types ofglobalization is necessary.

Moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin and its response to North Atlantic cooling and global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Richter, Ingo [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Xie, Shang-Ping [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States)

2010-08-15

Atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin plays an important role in regulating North Atlantic salinity and thus the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Potential changes in the strength of this moisture transport are investigated for two different climate-change scenarios: North Atlantic cooling representative of Heinrich events, and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. The effect of North Atlantic cooling is studied using a coupled regional model with comparatively high resolution that successfully simulates Central American gap winds and other important aspects of the region. Cooler North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in this model leads to a regional decrease of atmospheric moisture but also to an increase in wind speed across Central America via an anomalous pressure gradient. The latter effect dominates, resulting in a 0.13 Sv (1 Sv = 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} s{sup -1}) increase in overall moisture transport to the Pacific basin. In fresh water forcing simulations with four different general circulation models, the wind speed effect is also present but not strong enough to completely offset the effect of moisture decrease except in one model. The influence of GHG forcing is studied using simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archive. In these simulations atmospheric moisture increases globally, resulting in an increase of moisture transport by 0.25 Sv from the Atlantic to Pacific. Thus, in both scenarios, moisture transport changes act to stabilize the thermohaline circulation. The notion that the Andes effectively block moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin is not supported by the simulations and atmospheric reanalyses examined here. This indicates that such a blocking effect does not exist or else that higher resolution is needed to adequately represent the steep orography of the Andes. (orig.)

Global Mindsets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives seeks to tackle a topic that is relatively new in research and practice, and is considered by many to be critical for firms seeking to conduct global business. It argues that multiple mindsets exist (across and within organizations), that they operate...... in a global context, and that they are dynamic and undergo change and action. Part of the mindset(s) may depend upon place, situation and context where individuals and organizations operate. The book will examine the notion of "mindset" is situational and dynamic, especially in a global setting, why...... it is important for future scholars and managers and how it could be conceptualized. Global Mindsets: Exploration and Perspectives is split into two major sections; the first examines where the literature currently is with respect to the knowledge in the field and what conceptual frameworks guide the thinking...

Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models

Science.gov (United States)

Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.

2014-12-01

Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.

COMPETING CONCEPTIONS OF GLOBALIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leslie Sklair

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Globalization is a relatively new idea in the social sciences, although people who work in and write about the mass media, transnational corporations and international business have been using it for some time. The purpose of this paper is to critically review the ways in which sociologists and other social scientists use ideas of globalization and to evaluate the fruitfulness of these competing conceptions. The central feature of the idea of globalization is that many contemporary problems cannot be adequately studied at the level of nation-states, that is, in terms of each country and its inter-national relations. Instead, they need to be conceptualized in terms of global processes. Some have even gone so far as to predict that global forces, by which they usually mean transnational corporations and other global economic institutions, global culture or globalizing belief systems/ideologies of various types, or a combination of all of these, are becoming so powerful that the continuing existence of the nation-state is in serious doubt. This is not a necessary consequence of most theories of globalization. The argument of this paper is that much of the globalization literature is confused because not all those who use the term distinguish it clearly enough from internation-alization, and some writers appear to use the two terms interchangeably. I argue that a clear distinction must be drawn between the inter-national and the global. The hyphen in inter-national is to distinguish (inadequate conceptions of the global' founded on the existing even if changing system of nation-states, from (genuine conceptions of the global based on the emergence of global processes and a global system of social relations not founded on national characteristics or nation-states. This global system theory is the framework for my own research. Globalization studies can be categorized on the basis of four research clusters:1. The world-systems approach; 2. The global

BUSINESS GLOBALIZATION: TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS AND GLOBAL COMPETITION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DIMA Stela

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce business globalization and the main globalization factors which, under the current stage, are transnational corporations. Globalization is the result of the pressure put by companies which, in turn, are under the close “magnifier” of all the involved factors (the so-called “stakeholders”. The market and the determining forces are not influenced by a political attitude nowadays marking globalization, but rather the political decisions have followed the course of economic evolutions, a trend that has always been provided by multinational corporations. In order to successfully follow up their activity, companies initiate new businesses, selling or deleting from their portfolio businesses or divisions with a decreasing tendency. Also, companies give up old rules and structures adopting new decision-making processes, control systems and mental patterns. Corporations must learn to become dynamic just like the market, if they wish to maintain, on the long run, a superior rate of income.

GLOBAL RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT

OpenAIRE

Er Kirtesh Jailia; Mrs.Manisha jailia; Er.Priyanka Jailia

2010-01-01

In this paper we are going to discuss about the concept of Global relationship management. This is an important concept because now a day the whole business community is moving globally, means the geographical boundaries are of no more concern for the business communities. The global thinking of the business communities leads to the global relationship hence it is important for them to effectively manage such global relationship so that they can achieve what they want. The main concern is ove...

Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA Seasonal climatic forecast over Brazil: evaluation of the RegCM3 model nested to the CPTEC/COLA global model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rubinei Dorneles Machado

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP, respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE, Sudeste (SDE e Sul (SUL. As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência, nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.This study presents an assessment of seasonal forecasts from the regional climate model RegCM3 nested to the CPTEC/COLA global model. The used RegCM3 version is 60 km horizontal resolution over an area that includes large part of South America. RegCM3 and CPTEC/COLA forecasts were evaluated using the rainfall and air temperature analyses from Climate

Metabolic Syndrome Derived from Principal Component Analysis and Incident Cardiovascular Events: The Multi Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC).

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwal, Subhashish; Jacobs, David R; Vaidya, Dhananjay; Sibley, Christopher T; Jorgensen, Neal W; Rotter, Jerome I; Chen, Yii-Der Ida; Liu, Yongmei; Andrews, Jeanette S; Kritchevsky, Stephen; Goodpaster, Bret; Kanaya, Alka; Newman, Anne B; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Herrington, David M

2012-01-01

Background. The NCEP metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a combination of dichotomized interrelated risk factors from predominantly Caucasian populations. We propose a continuous MetS score based on principal component analysis (PCA) of the same risk factors in a multiethnic cohort and compare prediction of incident CVD events with NCEP MetS definition. Additionally, we replicated these analyses in the Health, Aging, and Body composition (Health ABC) study cohort. Methods and Results. We performed PCA of the MetS elements (waist circumference, HDL, TG, fasting blood glucose, SBP, and DBP) in 2610 Caucasian Americans, 801 Chinese Americans, 1875 African Americans, and 1494 Hispanic Americans in the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort. We selected the first principal component as a continuous MetS score (MetS-PC). Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between MetS-PC and 5.5 years of CVD events (n = 377) adjusting for age, gender, race, smoking and LDL-C, overall and by ethnicity. To facilitate comparison of MetS-PC with the binary NCEP definition, a MetS-PC cut point was chosen to yield the same 37% prevalence of MetS as the NCEP definition (37%) in the MESA cohort. Hazard ratio (HR) for CVD events were estimated using the NCEP and Mets-PC-derived binary definitions. In Cox proportional models, the HR (95% CI) for CVD events for 1-SD (standard deviation) of MetS-PC was 1.71 (1.54-1.90) (P definitions were compared, HR for CVD events was 2.34 (1.91-2.87) for MetS-PC versus 1.79 (1.46-2.20) for NCEP MetS. In the Health ABC cohort, in a fully adjusted model, MetS-PC per 1-SD (Health ABC) remained associated with CVD events (HR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.12-1.32) overall, and for each ethnicity, Caucasian (HR = 1.24, 95%CI 1.12-1.39) and African Americans (HR = 1.16, 95%CI 1.01-1.32). Finally, when using a binary definition of MetS-PC (cut point 0.505) designed to match the NCEP definition in terms of prevalence in the Health ABC cohort (35

NOAA's Strategy to Improve Operational Weather Prediction Outlooks at Subseasonal Time Range

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, T.; Toepfer, F.; Stajner, I.; DeWitt, D.

2017-12-01

NOAA is planning to extend operational global numerical weather prediction to sub-seasonal time range under the auspices of its Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and Extended Range Outlook Programs. A unification of numerical prediction capabilities for weather and subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales is underway at NOAA using the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamical core as the basis for the emerging unified system. This presentation will overview NOAA's strategic planning and current activities to improve prediction at S2S time-scales that are ongoing in response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Section 201. Over the short-term, NOAA seeks to improve the operational capability through improvements to its ensemble forecast system to extend its range to 30 days using the new FV3 Global Forecast System model, and by using this system to provide reforecast and re-analyses. In parallel, work is ongoing to improve NOAA's operational product suite for 30 day outlooks for temperature, precipitation and extreme weather phenomena.

BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

2011-01-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Global constitutionalism, applied to global health governance: uncovering legitimacy deficits and suggesting remedies.

Science.gov (United States)

Ooms, Gorik; Hammonds, Rachel

2016-12-03

Global constitutionalism is a way of looking at the world, at global rules and how they are made, as if there was a global constitution, empowering global institutions to act as a global government, setting rules which bind all states and people. This essay employs global constitutionalism to examine how and why global health governance, as currently structured, has struggled to advance the right to health, a fundamental human rights obligation enshrined in the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. It first examines the core structure of the global health governance architecture, and its evolution since the Second World War. Second, it identifies the main constitutionalist principles that are relevant for a global constitutionalism assessment of the core structure of the global health governance architecture. Finally, it applies these constitutionalist principles to assess the core structure of the global health governance architecture. Leading global health institutions are structurally skewed to preserve high incomes countries' disproportionate influence on transnational rule-making authority, and tend to prioritise infectious disease control over the comprehensive realisation of the right to health. A Framework Convention on Global Health could create a classic division of powers in global health governance, with WHO as the law-making power in global health governance, a global fund for health as the executive power, and the International Court of Justice as the judiciary power.

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Takhsha, Maryam; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Laprise, René; Hernández-Díaz, Leticia; Winger, Katja

2017-10-01

As part of the CORDEX project, the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) is used over the Arctic for climate simulations driven by reanalyses and by the MPI-ESM-MR coupled global climate model (CGCM) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CRCM5 shows adequate skills capturing general features of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) for all seasons. Evaluating 2-m temperature (T2m) and precipitation is more problematic, because of inconsistencies between observational reference datasets over the Arctic that suffer of a sparse distribution of weather stations. In our study, we additionally investigated the effect of large-scale spectral nudging (SN) on the hindcast simulation driven by reanalyses. The analysis shows that SN is effective in reducing the spring MSLP bias, but otherwise it has little impact. We have also conducted another experiment in which the CGCM-simulated sea-surface temperature (SST) is empirically corrected and used as lower boundary conditions over the ocean for an atmosphere-only global simulation (AGCM), which in turn provides the atmospheric lateral boundary conditions to drive the CRCM5 simulation. This approach, so-called 3-step approach of dynamical downscaling (CGCM-AGCM-RCM), which had considerably improved the CRCM5 historical simulations over Africa, exhibits reduced impact over the Arctic domain. The most notable positive effect over the Arctic is a reduction of the T2m bias over the North Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean in all seasons. Future projections using this method are compared with the results obtained with the traditional 2-step dynamical downscaling (CGCM-RCM) to assess the impact of correcting systematic biases of SST upon future-climate projections. The future projections are mostly similar for the two methods, except for precipitation.

Institutionalizing Global Governance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasche, Andreas; Gilbert, Dirk Ulrich

2012-01-01

The United Nations Global Compact – which is a Global Public Policy Network advocating 10 universal principles in the areas of human rights, labor standards, environmental protection, and anticorruption – has turned into the world's largest corporate responsibility initiative. Although the Global...... Compact is often characterized as a promising way to address global governance gaps, it remains largely unclear why this is the case. To address this problem, we discuss to what extent the initiative represents an institutional solution to exercise global governance. We suggest that new governance modes...

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

Resistência à insulina e síndrome metabólica em pacientes ambulatoriais com transtorno do humor bipolar Insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome in outpatients with bipolar disorder

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabiano Alves Gomes

2010-01-01

Full Text Available CONTEXTO: O transtorno bipolar (TB está associado a uma significativa morbi-mortalidade por causas metabólicas. Existem poucos dados sobre a prevalência de resistência à insulina (RI e sua relação com a síndrome metabólica (SM em pacientes com TB. OBJETIVO: Avaliar a prevalência de RI e SM em pacientes bipolares ambulatoriais e identificar os parâmetros clínicos associados à RI. MÉTODO: Estudo transversal em 65 pacientes com TB diagnosticados pelos critérios do DSM-IV-TR, avaliados de forma consecutiva no Programa de Transtorno Bipolar do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Brasil. RI foi diagnosticada utilizando o homeostatic model assessment - insulin resistance (HOMA-IR e a SM foi diagnosticada utilizando três definições diferentes: do National Cholesterol Educational Program - Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III; do NCEP-ATP III modificado e da International Diabetes Federation (IDF. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de RI foi 43,1% (mulheres 40%, homens 44,4%. A prevalência de SM definida pelo NCEP ATP III foi 32,3%, pelo NCEP ATP III foi 40% e pela IDF foi 41,5%. Os critérios do NCEP ATP III modificado demonstrou a melhor relação entre sensibilidade (78,6% e especificidade (89,2% na detecção de RI. A circunferência da cintura foi o parâmetro clínico mais associado à RI. CONCLUSÃO: As definições atuais de SM podem identificar, com razoável sensibilidade e especificidade, RI em pacientes com TB. A obesidade abdominal é bastante associada à RI nessa população de pacientes.BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder (BD is associated with significant morbidity and mortality from metabolic diseases. There is a paucity of data regarding insulin resistance (IR and its relationship with the metabolic syndrome (MS in bipolar patients. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prevalence of both IR and MS in BD outpatients and to assess clinical criteria associated with IR. METHOD: Cross-sectional study in 65 DSM-IV-TR BD patients

A study on spectral energy for the end of the twentieth century the basis of the NCEP reanalysis-II

Science.gov (United States)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. A.; Yoshida, M. C.

2013-05-01

The energy cycle proposed by Lorenz (1955) is composed of the behavior of the average energy from the atmosphere and characteristics of atmospheric energy deviations from this average, respectively called basic state and perturbed state. However, it is possible to discretize the energy contained in the atmosphere disturbed state, decomposing the fields of the various disturbances or harmonics wave type, so as to measure and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength, this methodology described second Saltzman (1957). Therefore, in view of the spectral analysis as a methodological basis, this work aims to study the energy contained by the atmosphere in disturbed state. Considering the terms of power generation potential available for nth waves due to diabatic heating, represented by (G(n)), potential energy of nth wave (P(n)) and kinetic energy of nth wave (K(n)) and the conversion of energy between the energy nth kinetic and potential energy of waves nth waves given by (C(n)). The variables used in the calculation of the terms above are, temperature (T) orthogonal components of the wind (u, v, w) and geopotential height (G) from a data set from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) considering daily shared values on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°, distributed in 12 pressure levels (1000, 925, 850, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100 hPa ) for the 1970 to 1999 period. The results show that for kinetic energy of disturbance to nth wave, the amount of energy is somewhat dammed during for the first 10 wave numbers in this range are the planetary waves and waves. Observing this way, we can conclude that these waves are responsible for much of the kinetic energy in disturbed state. A characteristic and a difference in the distribution of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy disturbed total available to disturbance, is the derivative of the energy wavenumber presented by

Analysis of agreement among definitions of metabolic syndrome in nondiabetic Turkish adults: a methodological study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bersot Thomas P

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We aimed to explore the agreement among World Health Organization (WHO, European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR, National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP, American College of Endocrinology (ACE, and International Diabetes Federation (IDF definitions of the metabolic syndrome. Methods 1568 subjects (532 men, 1036 women, mean age 45 and standard deviation (SD 13 years were evaluated in this cross-sectional, methodological study. Cardiometabolic risk factors were determined. Insulin sensitivity was calculated by HOMA-IR. Agreement among definitions was determined by the kappa statistic. ANOVA and post hoc Tukey's test were used to compare multiple groups. Results The agreement between WHO and EGIR definitions was very good (kappa: 0.83. The agreement between NCEP, ACE, and IDF definitions was substantial to very good (kappa: 0.77–0.84. The agreement between NCEP or ACE or IDF and WHO or EGIR definitions was fair (kappa: 0.32–0.37. The age and sex adjusted prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 38% by NCEP, 42% by ACE and IDF, 20% by EGIR and 19% by WHO definition. The evaluated definitions were dichotomized after analysis of design, agreement and prevalence: insulin measurement requiring definitions (WHO and EGIR and definitions not requiring insulin measurement (NCEP, ACE, IDF. One definition was selected from each set for comparison. WHO-defined subjects were more insulin resistant than subjects without the metabolic syndrome (mean and SD for log HOMA-IR, 0.53 ± 0.14 vs. 0.07 ± 0.23, respectively, p 0.05, but lower log HOMA-IR values (p Conclusion The metabolic syndrome definitions that do not require measurement of insulin levels (NCEP, ACE and IDF identify twice more patients with insulin resistance and increased Framingham risk scores and are more useful than the definitions that require measurement of insulin levels (WHO and EGIR.

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The intensity and location of the westerly jet (WJ) in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has been closely related to weather and climate changes in Eurasia. In this paper, we analyzed the seasonal and inter-annual variations in the strength and position of the WJ, using the NCEP-DOE reanalysis II (NCEP) data.

Global tree network for computing structures enabling global processing operations

Science.gov (United States)

Blumrich; Matthias A.; Chen, Dong; Coteus, Paul W.; Gara, Alan G.; Giampapa, Mark E.; Heidelberger, Philip; Hoenicke, Dirk; Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D.; Takken, Todd E.; Vranas, Pavlos M.

2010-01-19

A system and method for enabling high-speed, low-latency global tree network communications among processing nodes interconnected according to a tree network structure. The global tree network enables collective reduction operations to be performed during parallel algorithm operations executing in a computer structure having a plurality of the interconnected processing nodes. Router devices are included that interconnect the nodes of the tree via links to facilitate performance of low-latency global processing operations at nodes of the virtual tree and sub-tree structures. The global operations performed include one or more of: broadcast operations downstream from a root node to leaf nodes of a virtual tree, reduction operations upstream from leaf nodes to the root node in the virtual tree, and point-to-point message passing from any node to the root node. The global tree network is configurable to provide global barrier and interrupt functionality in asynchronous or synchronized manner, and, is physically and logically partitionable.

Global Mindset in Context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Rikke Kristine

2017-01-01

This paper addresses the call for identification of organizational contingencies related to global mindset, exploration of different forms of global mindset and their relationship with global strategies (Osland, Bird, Mendenhall & Osland, 2006). To this end, this paper explores global mindset...... development in the context of a 3-year single case study of middle manager microfoundations of global mindset in a Danish multinational corporation working with deliberate global mindset capability development as a vehicle for strategy execution and facilitation of global performance. A force field analysis...

SHADOW GLOBALIZATION

OpenAIRE

Larissa Mihaylovna Kapitsa

2014-01-01

The article reviews some development trends brought about by globalization, particularly, a growing tax evasion and tax avoidance, an expansion of illicit financial flows and the proliferation of a global criminal network. The author draws attention to some new phenomena, particularly, cosmopolitanization of some parts of national elites and a deepening divide between national interests and the private interests of elites as a consequence of financial globalization. Modern mass media, both Ru...

Youth in a Global World: Attitudes towards Globalization and Global Citizenship among University Students in Hong Kong

Science.gov (United States)

Chui, Wing Hong; Leung, Elliot W. Y.

2014-01-01

Despite the wealth of theoretical literature on globalization and global citizenship, empirical studies on the topic are lacking, especially in the context of pedagogical needs in relation to global citizenship education. In order to address this gap, a study was conducted in Hong Kong to investigate the attitudes of university students towards…

The Challenge of Globalization: Preparing Teachers for a Global Age

Science.gov (United States)

Merryfield, Merry M.

2008-01-01

Globalization changes everything. When young people affect and are affected by issues, changes, and events across the world, they need to be given the tools to participate in global discourse and decision making. With their incredible consumer power, today's preK-12 students are already influencing global economic, technological, and environmental…

Globalization and inequality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mills, Melinda

Globalization is increasingly linked to inequality, but with often divergent and polarized findings. Some researchers show that globalization accentuates inequality both within and between countries. Others maintain that these claims are patently incorrect, arguing that globalization has

Security Components of Globalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florin Iftode

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is our intention to present what are the main connections between globalization and international security. In terms of global security we can perceive the globalization as a process by which global state is represented by the UN, with a single world system, represented by major security organizations and with global effects. We will present from the beginning the main theoretical aspects that define the phenomenon of globalization, and then our contribution in assessing the implications of this phenomenon on the regional and global security. The results of our research are materialized in the last part of the paper. They emphasize the personal assessments on how the phenomenon of globalization has direct effect on global security. When talking about government, we think of norms, rules and decisionmaking procedures in the management of international life. The value that we add to the new scientific interpretation of the definition of globalization is represented, primarily, by the valuable bibliographic used resources and the original approach on the concept that refers to the links between globalization and security. This article may be, at any time, a starting point in an interesting research direction in the field of global security.

Situating globality : African agency in the appropriation of global culture: an introduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Binsbergen, van W.M.J.; Dijk, van R.A.; Gewald, J.B.

2004-01-01

This introductory chapter sketches globalization and Africa in broad theoretical terms, examining the meaning of the term globalization; the impact of globalization on daily life in Africa in economic as well as sociocultural terms; globalization as a historical phenomenon; the political aspects of

Globalizing Globalization: The Neo-Institutional Concept of a World Culture

Science.gov (United States)

Trohler, Daniel

2009-01-01

In this paper, the author focuses on how globalization and education are addressed in research. More precisely, he concentrates on only one dominant approach to analyzing globalization and its effects on education and also the educational role within globalization. His thesis is that, with the background of Max Weber's Protestant ethic thesis,…

Exploring Late Globalization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Turcan, Romeo V.

2016-01-01

literature on late globalization from sociocultural and economic perspectives. It illustrates in a vignette the character and features of late globalization observable in the withdrawal from foreign locations or deinternationalization of universities, as late globalizing entitis. The paper discusses...

Global Mindset: An Entrepreneur's Perspective on the Born-Global Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Poole

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The born-global approach calls for a startup to address the needs of a global market from inception. This approach provides an attractive alternative to the conventional staged approach to internationalization whereby a startup first operates in its home market and then enters one or more foreign markets sequentially. This article highlights the mindset change that an entrepreneur must make to move from the conventional staged approach to the born-global approach. The author of this article is an experienced entrepreneur and the article describes his own mindset change that occurred when enacting the born-global approach. The author uses his own experience and company as a case study to develop recommendations for other entrepreneurs who are evaluating the born-global approach to launch and grow a technology company.

Forms of global governence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maxim V. Kharkevich

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Global governance as a concept defines the meaning of contemporary world politics both as a discipline and as reality. Interdependent and globalized world requires governance, and a global government has not been formed yet. The theoretical possibility of global governance without global government is proved and justified. The purpose of this article is to analytically identify possible forms of global governance. Three such forms of global governance are identified: hierarchical, market and network. In a hierarchy the governance is due to the asymmetry of power between the parties. Market control happens via anonymous pricing mechanism. Network, in contrast to the market is characterized by a closer value link between the actors, but unlike the hierarchical relationship actors are free to leave the network. Global governance takes three forms and is being implemented by different actors. To determine the most efficient form of global governance is impossible. Efficiency depends on the match between a form and an object of government. It should be noted that meta governance is likely to remain a monopoly of institutionally strong states in global governance.

Global Mindset

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Olav Jull

2016-01-01

The concept of Global Mindset (GM) – the way to think about the global reality – is on the agenda of multinational companies concomitant with the increase in global complexity, uncertainty and diversity. In spite of a number of studies, the concept is still fluid and far from a managerial.......e. the capability to sense (quickly), reflect (constructively) and act purposefully (for mutual benefit). A case on an MNC is used at the end to show the organizational manifestations of a GM....

Polar night vortex breakdown and large-scale stirring in the southern stratosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Camara, Alvaro de la [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); University of California, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Mechoso, C.R. [University of California, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Ide, K. [University of California, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Collage Park, MD (United States); Walterscheid, R. [The Aerospace Corporation, Space Sciences Department, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Schubert, G. [University of California, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

2010-11-15

The present paper examines the vortex breakdown and large-scale stirring during the final warming of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere during the spring of 2005. A unique set of in situ observations collected by 27 superpressure balloons (SPBs) is used. The balloons, which were launched from McMurdo, Antarctica, by the Strateole/VORCORE project, drifted for several weeks on two different isopycnic levels in the lower stratosphere. We describe balloon trajectories and compare them with simulations obtained on the basis of the velocity field from the GEOS-5 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses performed with and without VORCORE data. To gain insight on the mechanisms responsible for the horizontal transport of air inside and outside the well-isolated vortex we examine the balloon trajectories in the framework of the Lagrangian properties of the stratospheric flow. Coherent structures of the flow are visualized by computing finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLE). A combination of isentropic analysis and FTLE distributions reveals that air is stripped away from the vortex's interior as stable manifolds eventually cross the vortex's edge. It is shown that two SPBs escaped from the vortex within high potential vorticity tongues that developed in association with wave breaking at locations along the vortex's edge where forward and backward FTLE maxima approximately intersect. The trajectories of three SPBs flying as a group at the same isopycnic level are examined and their behavior is interpreted in reference to the FTLE field. These results support the concept of stable and unstable manifolds governing transport of air masses across the periphery of the stratospheric polar vortex. (orig.)

Four decades of gasoline lead emissions and control policies in Europe. A retrospective assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Von Storch, Hans; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Hagner, Charlotte; Feser, Frauke [Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, 21502 Geesthacht (Germany); Pacyna, Jozef; Pacyna, Elisabeth [Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) (Norway); Kolb, Steffen [Institute for Journalism and Communication Research, University of Hamburg, Hamburg (Germany)

2003-07-20

Over decades, large amounts of the neurotoxin lead were released into the European environment, mostly from gasoline lead additives. Emissions were growing unabatedly until the 1970s, when a series of regulations on the allowed gasoline lead content were adopted. As a result, in the 1990s most gasoline contained only small amounts of lead. We have examined this case of environmental pollution and regulation, and performed a retrospective assessment of the extent of regional-scale lead pollution and the effects of gasoline lead regulations in Europe. With the help of a regional climate model, NCEP re-analyses, spatially disaggregated lead emissions from road traffic and point sources, and various local data, the airborne pathways and depositions of gasoline lead in Europe since 1958 were reconstructed. It turns out that this approach is successful in describing the time-variable, spatially disaggregated deposition of gasoline lead. Additional data from analyses of concentrations in biota, including plant leaves, mussels and human blood, allows an assessment about the impact of the lead phase-out on the quality of the environment. Demonstrating the success of the lead policies, concentrations in leaves and human blood have steadily declined since the early 1980s. At the same time, the economic repercussions that had been feared did not emerge. Instead, the affected mineral oil and car manufacturing industries in Germany (our case-study) were able to deal with the effort without incurring significant extra costs. We suggest that our method of quantitatively reconstructing and anticipating fluxes and depositions of substances can be applied to other relevant substances as well, such as, for example, Persistent Organic Pollutants, radioactive substances or pollens.

The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daloz, Anne Sophie; Chauvin, Fabrice [Groupe de Modelisation Grande Echelle et Climat, CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Walsh, Kevin [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Lavender, Sally; Abbs, Deborah [CSIRO Atmospheric and Marine Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia); Roux, Frank [Universite de Toulouse and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d' Aerologie, Toulouse (France)

2012-10-15

The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10-20 N, 20-80 W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169-1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a high-resolution (0.5 ) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig. 1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered. (orig.)

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome according to various definitions and hypertriglyceridemic-waist in malaysian adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Zainuddin, Laila Ruwaida Mohd; Isa, Nurfirdaus; Muda, Wan Manan Wan; Mohamed, Hamid Jan

2011-10-01

Metabolic syndrome can be diagnosed according to several different criteria such as the latest International Diabetes Federation (IDF), National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Program III (NCEP ATPIII), and World Health Organization (WHO). The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and the concordance between the above mentioned definition, and hypertriglyceridemic-waist criteria. This cross sectional study was done in Bachok, Malaysia and involved 298 respondents aged between 18 to 70 years. Multistage random sampling method was used to identify study locations while convenient random sampling method was applied to select individuals. Hypertriglyceridemic waist was defined from an internationally acceptable cut-off criterion. Kappa statistic (κ test) was used to determine the concordance between various definitions and hypertriglyceridemic-waist. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome based on different definitions was 32.2% (IDF), 28.5% (NCEP ATP III) and 12.4% (modified WHO). The prevalence of hypertriglyceridemic-waist was 19.7% and based on the IDF criteria a total of 97.5% participants with hypertriglyceridemic-waist had metabolic syndrome. The IDF criteria showed the highest concordance with NCEP ATPIII criteria (κ = 0.63), followed by hypertriglyceridemic-waist criteria (κ = 0.62) and WHO criteria (κ = 0.26). The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was highest using the IDF criteria compared to NCEP ATPIII, modified WHO and hypertriglyceridemic-waist. There was a good concordance of IDF criteria with NCEP ATP III and hypertriglyceridemic-waist criteria.

Global Citizenship Education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roesgaard, Marie Højlund

2016-01-01

published after 2000 was written by researchers based in the US and if you add other English-speaking countries such as Canada, England, Australia and New Zealand, the proportion is even higher. English in the field of education research often serves as the international lingua franca. Since there is also......Global citizenship as an idea has become an increasingly important issue on the educational agenda since the late 1970’s. The importance allotted to this issue is clear in the attention given to it by for example UNESCO where global citizenship education (GCED) is an area of strategic focus....... Increasingly schools all over the world are attempting to or expected to educate the global citizen, but how exactly do you educate the global citizen? What does this global citizenship consist of? While surely the type of training and education needed to train a global citizen will vary greatly depending...

Global Managers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barakat, Livia L.; Lorenz, Melanie P.; Ramsey, Jase R.

2016-01-01

Purpose: – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of cultural intelligence (CQ) on the job performance of global managers. Design/methodology/approach: – In total, 332 global managers were surveyed from multinational companies operating in Brazil. The mediating effect of job...... satisfaction was tested on the CQ-job performance relationship. Findings: – The findings suggest that job satisfaction transmits the effect of CQ to job performance, such that global managers high in CQ exhibit more job satisfaction in an international setting, and therefore perform better at their jobs....... Practical implications: – Results imply that global managers should increase their CQ in order to improve their job satisfaction and ultimately perform better in an international context. Originality/value: – The authors make three primary contributions to the international business literature. First...

Medicalization of global health 2: The medicalization of global mental health.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Jocalyn

2014-01-01

Once an orphan field, 'global mental health' now has wide acknowledgement and prominence on the global health agenda. Increased recognition draws needed attention to individual suffering and the population impacts, but medicalizing global mental health produces a narrow view of the problems and solutions. Early framing by advocates of the global mental health problem emphasised biological disease, linked psychiatry with neurology, and reinforced categories of mental health disorders. Universality of biomedical concepts across culture is assumed in the globalisation of mental health but is strongly disputed by transcultural psychiatrists and anthropologists. Global mental health movement priorities take an individualised view, emphasising treatment and scale-up and neglecting social and structural determinants of health. To meet international targets and address the problem's broad social and cultural dimensions, the global mental health movement and advocates must develop more comprehensive strategies and include more diverse perspectives.

NCEP ATP III dan Framingham score

OpenAIRE

Hasan, Refli; Fahila, Reny

2016-01-01

Laporan ini merupakan Program Pendidikan Kolesterol National yang diperbaharui yaitu pedoman klinis untuk melakukan pengujian kolesterol dan manajemen. ATP III dibuat berdasarkan bukti dan laporan ekstensif yang akan menjadi referensi dan rekomendasi ilmiah. Laporan ATP III dapat dijadikan pedoman untuk pemberian terapi penurun kolesterol yang intensif dalam praktek. Pedoman ini hanya sebagai informasi , tidak dapat mempengaruhi secara mutlak dalam penilaian klinis dokter yang akhirnya menent...

Globalization and Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huma Imran Khan

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The concept of globalization has been introduced due to technical advancements that has made the world a global village. The world as is now has never been before; it is now a world where multicultural societies have developed, trade and transactions are made between countries, technology reaches every part of the world, and internet has connected every possible idea, opinion, person, and commodity with the rest of the world. In this world of globalization, education has taken a central role, as without education globalization cannot be germinated. Education is a national issue and as such, each country has its own educational policies that are emblems of that country's cultural values, belief system and historical realities. Nevertheless, the globalized world demands for multiculturalism, and commonalities amongst communities to be promoted so as to bring the world closer to accepting cultural diversities and celebrating commonalities. For these aims, educational institutions become institutions for promoting globalization by introducing various cultural and traditional beliefs to the new generation. Recently, globalization has become a popular subject of debate in national and international circiles. Globalization links individuals and institutions across the world through economic forces, digital technologies, and communication. It is moreover subjected to higher living standards, international affiliations, and multiple types of freedom. However, a major part of the world consists of under developed countries where technological advancements, communication, trade and commerce along with other economic activities are not enough to support them to be a part of the global society.

Global Health Security

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2017-09-21

Dr. Jordan Tappero, a CDC senior advisor on global health, discusses the state of global health security.  Created: 9/21/2017 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID), Center for Global Health (CGH).   Date Released: 9/21/2017.

The Impact of Globalization on the Formation of a Global Political System

Science.gov (United States)

Ilyin, Ilya V.; Rozanov, Alexander Sergeevich

2013-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of globalization on the formation of a global political system. Design/methodology/approach: Taking into account the fact of global political evolution, the authors of the paper point out that the global political structures tend to change. Findings: During the past millennium the global…

Global from the Start

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tanev, Stoyan

2012-01-01

This article provides insights from recent research on firms that are "born global". A born-global firm is a venture launched to exploit a global niche from the first day of its operations. The insights in this article are relevant to technology entrepreneurs and top management teams of new...... technology firms. After discussing various definitions for the term "born global" and identifying the main characteristics of born-global firms, this article lists a few salient characteristics of firms that are born global in the technology sector. The article concludes by identifying opportunities...

Pareto-Optimal Estimates of California Precipitation Change

Science.gov (United States)

Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David

2017-12-01

In seeking constraints on global climate model projections under global warming, one commonly finds that different subsets of models perform well under different objective functions, and these trade-offs are difficult to weigh. Here a multiobjective approach is applied to a large set of subensembles generated from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 ensemble. We use observations and reanalyses to constrain tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, upper level zonal winds in the midlatitude Pacific, and California precipitation. An evolutionary algorithm identifies the set of Pareto-optimal subensembles across these three measures, and these subensembles are used to constrain end-of-century California wet season precipitation change. This methodology narrows the range of projections throughout California, increasing confidence in estimates of positive mean precipitation change. Finally, we show how this technique complements and generalizes emergent constraint approaches for restricting uncertainty in end-of-century projections within multimodel ensembles using multiple criteria for observational constraints.

A New Estimate of North American Mountain Snow Accumulation From Regional Climate Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Wrzesien, Melissa L.; Durand, Michael T.; Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Zhang, Yu; Guo, Junyi; Shum, C. K.

2018-02-01

Despite the importance of mountain snowpack to understanding the water and energy cycles in North America's montane regions, no reliable mountain snow climatology exists for the entire continent. We present a new estimate of mountain snow water equivalent (SWE) for North America from regional climate model simulations. Climatological peak SWE in North America mountains is 1,006 km3, 2.94 times larger than previous estimates from reanalyses. By combining this mountain SWE value with the best available global product in nonmountain areas, we estimate peak North America SWE of 1,684 km3, 55% greater than previous estimates. In our simulations, the date of maximum SWE varies widely by mountain range, from early March to mid-April. Though mountains comprise 24% of the continent's land area, we estimate that they contain 60% of North American SWE. This new estimate is a suitable benchmark for continental- and global-scale water and energy budget studies.

The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

Science.gov (United States)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2013-04-01

The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Laing, Arlene

2012-01-01

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

2009-12-15

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curtis, Fred

2009-01-01

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

Få greb om global ledelse

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Rikke Kristine

2017-01-01

(Be-)greb om global ledelse – værktøjer til global ledelse i praksis: Værktøj 1: De 5 nøgleelementer i det globale ledelsesgrundlag – ’global opvarmning’ og ’ice breaker’ Værktøj 2: Dit globale mindset – afklaringsværktøj Værktøj 3: De 4 benspænd i global ledelse – dit ’globale ledelsemanifest......-GPS - de 7 kontekstfaktorer Værktøj 10: Strategisk global mindset – nøglehulsmodellen Værktøj 11: Global aktivering – sikring af det globale læringsberedskab Værktøj 12: Fakta eller fiktion - 9 myter om global mindset-kompetence...

Global Environment Facility |

Science.gov (United States)

environment Countries pledge US$4.1 billion to the Global Environment Facility Ringtail lemur mom with two of paradise Nations rally to protect global environment Countries pledge US$4.1 billion to the Global Environment Facility Stockholm, Sweden birds-eye view Events GEF-7 Replenishment Trung Truong Son Landscapes

Monthly Sea Surface Salinity and Freshwater Flux Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, L.; Xie, P.; Wu, S.

2017-12-01

Taking advantages of the complementary nature of the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) measurements from the in-situ (CTDs, shipboard, Argo floats, etc.) and satellite retrievals from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite of the European Space Agency (ESA), the Aquarius of a joint venture between US and Argentina, and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) of national Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), a technique is developed at NOAA/NCEP/CPC to construct an analysis of monthly SSS, called the NOAA Blended Analysis of Sea-Surface Salinity (BASS). The algorithm is a two-steps approach, i.e. to remove the bias in the satellite data through Probability Density Function (PDF) matching against co-located in situ measurements; and then to combine the bias-corrected satellite data with the in situ measurements through the Optimal Interpolation (OI) method. The BASS SSS product is on a 1° by 1° grid over the global ocean for a 7-year period from 2010. Combined with the NOAA/NCEP/CPC CMORPH satellite precipitation (P) estimates and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) evaporation (E) fields, a suite of monthly package of the SSS and oceanic freshwater flux (E and P) was developed to monitor the global oceanic water cycle and SSS on a monthly basis. The SSS in BASS product is a suite of long-term SSS and fresh water flux data sets with temporal homogeneity and inter-component consistency better suited for the examination of the long-term changes and monitoring. It presents complete spatial coverage and improved resolution and accuracy, which facilitates the diagnostic analysis of the relationship and co-variability among SSS, freshwater flux, mixed layer processes, oceanic circulation, and assimilation of SSS into global models. At the AGU meeting, we will provide more details on the CPC salinity and fresh water flux data package and its applications in the monitoring and analysis of SSS variations in association with the ENSO and other major climate

Global Rome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

Recent Topical Research on Global, Energy, Health & Medical, and Tourism Economics, and Global Software

OpenAIRE

Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael

2017-01-01

textabstractThe paper presents an overview of recent topical research on global, energy, health & medical, and tourism economics, and global software. We have interpreted “global” in the title of the Journal of Reviews on Global Economics to cover contributions that have a global impact on economics, thereby making it “global economics”. In this sense, the paper is concerned with papers on global, energy, health & medical, and tourism economics, as well as global software algorithms that have...

BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

2011-04-01

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Global health justice and governance.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruger, Jennifer Prah

2012-01-01

While there is a growing body of work on moral issues and global governance in the fields of global justice and international relations, little work has connected principles of global health justice with those of global health governance for a theory of global health. Such a theory would enable analysis and evaluation of the current global health system and would ethically and empirically ground proposals for reforming it to more closely align with moral values. Global health governance has been framed as an issue of national security, human security, human rights, and global public goods. The global health governance literature is essentially untethered to a theorized framework to illuminate or evaluate governance. This article ties global health justice and ethics to principles for governing the global health realm, developing a theoretical framework for global and domestic institutions and actors.

Predicting Heat Stress to Inform Reef Management: NOAA Coral Reef Watch's 4-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gang Liu

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW operates a global 4-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook system for shallow-water coral reefs in collaboration with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP. The Outlooks are generated by applying the algorithm used in CRW's operational satellite coral bleaching heat stress monitoring, with slight modifications, to the sea surface temperature (SST predictions from NCEP's operational Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2. Once a week, the probability of heat stress capable of causing mass coral bleaching is predicted for 4-months in advance. Each day, CFSv2 generates an ensemble of 16 forecasts, with nine runs out to 45-days, three runs out to 3-months, and four runs out to 9-months. This results in 28–112 ensemble members produced each week. A composite for each predicted week is derived from daily predictions within each ensemble member. The probability of each of four heat stress ranges (Watch and higher, Warning and higher, Alert Level 1 and higher, and Alert Level 2 is determined from all the available ensemble members for the week to form the weekly probabilistic Outlook. The probabilistic 4-Month Outlook is the highest weekly probability predicted among all the weekly Outlooks during a 4-month period for each of the stress ranges. An initial qualitative skill analysis of the Outlooks for 2011–2015, compared with CRW's satellite-based coral bleaching heat stress products, indicated the Outlook has performed well with high hit rates and low miss rates for most coral reef areas. Regions identified with high false alarm rates will guide future improvements. This Outlook system, as the first and only freely available global coral bleaching prediction system, has been providing critical early warning to marine resource managers, scientists, and decision makers around the world to guide management, protection, and monitoring of coral reefs

Cosmic microwave background constraints for global strings and global monopoles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Lizarraga, Joanes; Urrestilla, Jon; Hindmarsh, Mark

2017-01-01

We present the first cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra from numerical simulations of the global O( N ) linear σ-model, with N =2,3, which have global strings and monopoles as topological defects. In order to compute the CMB power spectra we compute the unequal time correlators (UETCs) of the energy-momentum tensor, showing that they fall off at high wave number faster than naive estimates based on the geometry of the defects, indicating non-trivial (anti-)correlations between the defects and the surrounding Goldstone boson field. We obtain source functions for Einstein-Boltzmann solvers from the UETCs, using a recently developed method that improves the modelling at the radiation-matter transition. We show that the interpolation function that mimics the transition is similar to other defect models, but not identical, confirming the non-universality of the interpolation function. The CMB power spectra for global strings and global monopoles have the same overall shape as those obtained using the non-linear σ-model approximation, which is well captured by a large- N calculation. However, the amplitudes are larger than the large- N calculation would naively predict, and in the case of global strings much larger: a factor of 20 at the peak. Finally we compare the CMB power spectra with the latest CMB data in other to put limits on the allowed contribution to the temperature power spectrum at multipole l = 10 of 1.7% for global strings and 2.4% for global monopoles. These limits correspond to symmetry-breaking scales of 2.9× 10 15 GeV (6.3× 10 14 GeV with the expected logarithmic scaling of the effective string tension between the simulation time and decoupling) and 6.4× 10 15 GeV respectively. The bound on global strings is a significant one for the ultra-light axion scenario with axion masses m a ∼< 10 −28 eV . These upper limits indicate that gravitational waves from global topological defects will not be observable at the gravitational wave

Global Cooling: Effect of Urban Albedo on Global Temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Akbari, Hashem; Menon, Surabi; Rosenfeld, Arthur

2007-05-22

In many urban areas, pavements and roofs constitute over 60% of urban surfaces (roof 20-25%, pavements about 40%). The roof and the pavement albedo can be increased by about 0.25 and 0.10, respectively, resulting in a net albedo increase for urban areas of about 0.1. Many studies have demonstrated building cooling-energy savings in excess of 20% upon raising roof reflectivity from an existing 10-20% to about 60%. We estimate U.S. potential savings in excess of $1 billion (B) per year in net annual energy bills. Increasing albedo of urban surfaces can reduce the summertime urban temperature and improve the urban air quality. Increasing the urban albedo has the added benefit of reflecting more of the incoming global solar radiation and countering the effect of global warming. We estimate that increasing albedo of urban areas by 0.1 results in an increase of 3 x 10{sup -4} in Earth albedo. Using a simple global model, the change in air temperature in lowest 1.8 km of the atmosphere is estimated at 0.01K. Modelers predict a warming of about 3K in the next 60 years (0.05K/year). Change of 0.1 in urban albedo will result in 0.01K global cooling, a delay of {approx}0.2 years in global warming. This 0.2 years delay in global warming is equivalent to 10 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions.

Developing Globalization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Annette Skovsted

2017-01-01

This chapter is the first qualitative micro case study of one aspect of globalization: personal networks as a concrete outcome of development assistance spending. The empirical findings related in this paper present circumstantial evidence that Japanese foreign aid has contributed to globalization...

Global Sourcing Flexibility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørberg Jensen, Peter D.; Petersen, Bent

2013-01-01

the higher costs (but decreased risk for value chain disruption) embedded in a more flexible global sourcing model that allows the firm to replicate and/or relocate activities across multiple locations. We develop a model and propositions on facilitating and constraining conditions of global sourcing...... sourcing flexibility. Here we draw on prior research in the fields of organizational flexibility, international business and global sourcing as well as case examples and secondary studies. In the second part of the paper, we discuss the implications of global sourcing flexibility for firm strategy...... and operations against the backdrop of the theory-based definition of the construct. We discuss in particular the importance of global sourcing flexibility for operational performance stability, and the trade-off between specialization benefits, emerging from location and service provider specialization, versus...

Joining the Global Village: Teaching Globalization with Wikipedia

Science.gov (United States)

Konieczny, Piotr

2017-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of my experiences with a teaching activity that engages students in publishing in Wikipedia on issues relating to globalization. It begins with a short overview of some of the current debates revolving around teaching globalization, which lay ground for the assignment. I discuss how this teaching tool fits with a…

Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

2015-07-01

The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

Globalization in Japan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roesgaard, Marie Højlund

2014-01-01

Abstract for Nichibunken Copenhagen Symposium August 2012 Globalization in Japan – the case of moral education. 日本とグローバル化　－　道徳教育の件 Marie H. Roesgaard, Department of Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies, University of Copenhagen. This paper attempts to trace the history of global influence on Japan......Abstract for Nichibunken Copenhagen Symposium August 2012 Globalization in Japan – the case of moral education. 日本とグローバル化　－　道徳教育の件 Marie H. Roesgaard, Department of Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies, University of Copenhagen. This paper attempts to trace the history of global influence...... adjusting to those of the global currents that cannot be ignored. Further, I would suggest that global, or at least Western, influence is not a new thing in regard to moral education in Japan. The paper will provide an historical overview of the development of moral education since Meiji times and focus...

Global Ethics Applied: Global Ethics, Economic Ethics

OpenAIRE

Stückelberger, Christoph

2016-01-01

Global Ethics Applied’ in four volumes is a reader of 88 selected articles from the author on 13 domains: Vol. 1 Global Ethics, Economic Ethics; Vol. 2 Environmental Ethics; Vol. 3 Development Ethics, Political Ethics, Dialogue and Peace Ethics, Innovation and Research Ethics, Information and Communication Ethics; Vol. 4 Bioethics and Medical Ethics, Family Ethics and Sexual Ethics, Leadership Ethics, Theological Ethics and Ecclesiology, Methods of Ethics. It concludes with the extended Bibli...

Global Oncology; Harvard Global Health Catalyst summit lecture notes

Science.gov (United States)

Ngwa, Wilfred; Nguyen, Paul

2017-08-01

The material presented in this book is at the cutting-edge of global oncology and provides highly illuminating examples, addresses frequently asked questions, and provides information and a reference for future work in global oncology care, research, education, and outreach.

Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Mengjiao; Feng, Jinqin; Li, Zhanqing; Sun, Ruiyu; Hou, Yu-Tai; Zhu, Yuejian; Wan, Bingcheng; Guo, Jianping; Cribb, Maureen

2017-11-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 %) and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively) from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m-2. All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and invigorate warm-base mixed

Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Jiang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 % and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE, and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m−2. All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and

Atmospheric Dust Modeling from Meso to Global Scales with the Online NMMB/BSC-Dust Model Part 2: Experimental Campaigns in Northern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, K.; Perez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.; Jorba, O.; Basart, S.; Miller, R. L.; Janjic, Z.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.; Todd, M. C.;

American cities, global networks: mapping the multiple geographies of globalization in the Americas

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Toly, N.J.; Bouteligier, S.; Smith, G.; Gibson, B.

2012-01-01

The mapping of advanced producer and financial service firms across global cities began to increase understanding of the role of cities in global governance, the presence and influence of cities in the shifting architecture of global political economy, and the role of globalization in shaping the

Global water cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin; Goodman, Steven J.; Christy, John R.; Fitzjarrald, Daniel E.; Chou, Shi-Hung; Crosson, William; Wang, Shouping; Ramirez, Jorge

1993-01-01

This research is the MSFC component of a joint MSFC/Pennsylvania State University Eos Interdisciplinary Investigation on the global water cycle extension across the earth sciences. The primary long-term objective of this investigation is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates change on both global and regional scales. Significant accomplishments in the past year are presented and include the following: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) global modeling; and (4) optimal precipitation and stream flow analysis and hydrologic processes.

Making sense of the global health crisis: policy narratives, conflict, and global health governance.

Science.gov (United States)

Ney, Steven

2012-04-01

Health has become a policy issue of global concern. Worried that the unstructured, polycentric, and pluralist nature of global health governance is undermining the ability to serve emergent global public health interests, some commentators are calling for a more systematic institutional response to the "global health crisis." Yet global health is a complex and uncertain policy issue. This article uses narrative analysis to explore how actors deal with these complexities and how uncertainties affect global health governance. By comparing three narratives in terms of their basic assumptions, the way they define problems as well as the solutions they propose, the analysis shows how the unstructured pluralism of global health policy making creates a wide scope of policy conflict over the global health crisis. This wide scope of conflict enables effective policy-oriented learning about global health issues. The article also shows how exclusionary patterns of cooperation and competition are emerging in health policy making at the global level. These patterns threaten effective learning by risking both polarization of the policy debate and unanticipated consequences of health policy. Avoiding these pitfalls, the analysis suggests, means creating global health governance regimes that promote openness and responsiveness in deliberation about the global health crisis.

A two-year randomized weight loss trial comparing a vegan diet to a more moderate low-fat diet.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner-McGrievy, Gabrielle M; Barnard, Neal D; Scialli, Anthony R

2007-09-01

The objective was to assess the effect of a low-fat, vegan diet compared with the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) diet on weight loss maintenance at 1 and 2 years. Sixty-four overweight, postmenopausal women were randomly assigned to a vegan or NCEP diet for 14 weeks, and 62 women began the study. The study was done in two replications. Participants in the first replication (N = 28) received no follow-up support after the 14 weeks, and those in the second replication (N = 34) were offered group support meetings for 1 year. Weight and diet adherence were measured at 1 and 2 years for all participants. Weight loss is reported as median (interquartile range) and is the difference from baseline weight at years 1 and 2. Individuals in the vegan group lost more weight than those in the NCEP group at 1 year [-4.9 (-0.5, -8.0) kg vs. -1.8 (0.8, -4.3); p vegan diet was associated with significantly greater weight loss than the NCEP diet at 1 and 2 years. Both group support and meeting attendance were associated with significant weight loss at follow-up.

Global High Resolution Sea Surface Flux Parameters From Multiple Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, H.; Reynolds, R. W.; Shi, L.; Bates, J. J.

2007-05-01

Advances in understanding the coupled air-sea system and modeling of the ocean and atmosphere demand increasingly higher resolution data, such as air-sea fluxes of up to 3 hourly and every 50 km. These observational requirements can only be met by utilizing multiple satellite observations. Generation of such high resolution products from multiple-satellite and in-situ observations on an operational basis has been started at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center. Here we describe a few products that are directly related to the computation of turbulent air-sea fluxes. Sea surface wind speed has been observed from in-situ instruments and multiple satellites, with long-term observations ranging from one satellite in the mid 1987 to six or more satellites since mid 2002. A blended product with a global 0.25° grid and four snapshots per day has been produced for July 1987 to present, using a near Gaussian 3-D (x, y, t) interpolation to minimize aliases. Wind direction has been observed from fewer satellites, thus for the blended high resolution vector winds and wind stresses, the directions are taken from the NCEP Re-analysis 2 (operationally run near real time) for climate consistency. The widely used Reynolds Optimum Interpolation SST analysis has been improved with higher resolutions (daily and 0.25°). The improvements use both infrared and microwave satellite data that are bias-corrected by in- situ observations for the period 1985 to present. The new versions provide very significant improvements in terms of resolving ocean features such as the meandering of the Gulf Stream, the Aghulas Current, the equatorial jets and other fronts. The Ta and Qa retrievals are based on measurements from the AMSU sounder onboard the NOAA satellites. Ta retrieval uses AMSU-A data, while Qa retrieval uses both AMSU-A and AMSU-B observations. The retrieval algorithms are developed using the neural network approach. Training

Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.

2016-12-01

This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project

What is Driving Global Imbalances? The Global Savings Glut Hypothesis Reexamined

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jai-Won Ryou

2009-12-01

Full Text Available In the middle of the global financial crisis, global imbalances seem to have been resolved to some extent, but it remains to be seen whether these imbalances will emerge again along with economic recovery. In order to cope with this global issue, we need to clarify what caused global imbalances in the first place. This paper aims to evaluate the relative importance of the "global savings glut" to the U.S. external imbalances. Drawing on the portfolio balance model, we analyze how the process of interaction between the U.S. current account deficit, capital inflows, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate is linked to domestic and external factors. Our empirical analysis shows that the U.S. current account deficit maintained since the early 1990s is mainly driven by the domestic factors, such as a decrease in the U.S. national savings and an increase in money supply growth. The size of the negative effect of a "global savings glut" measured by an increase in the East Asian countries' national savings (i.e. China, Japan and Korea on the U.S. current account seems to be exaggerated. Meanwhile, current account does not appear to be sensitive to changes in the exchange rate. This finding implies that the rectification of global imbalances is hardly possible to achieve by means of depreciating the U.S. dollar alone while leaving the structural factors unchanged. In order to achieve global rebalancing, the U.S. should increase its savings rate, reduce fiscal deficit, and tighten its money supply. While an increase in the domestic demand in the surplus countries such as China and Japan may be helpful in rectifying global imbalances, it appears to be insufficient per se.

Salud y justicia global

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Puyol, Ángel

2010-12-01

Full Text Available A question that would have to worry more to the global justice is the huge inequality of health in the world. In this paper, I analyse the causes of the global inequality of health and the ethical arguments for and against the need to treat this inequality from the perspective of the global justice. After refusing the arguments against both of the libertarianism and the statism, and after showing the critics both to the approach to the language of human rights and to the poggean proposal to reduce the duties of global justice to negative moral duties, I defend the need to use a sufficiency approach to global justice based in positive moral duties to face the severity and the moral urgency of the global inequalities of health.

Una de las cuestiones que debería preocupar más a la teoría de la justicia global es la enorme desigualdad de salud que hay en el mundo. En este artículo, se repasan las causas de la desigualdad global de salud y los argumentos éticos a favor y en contra de la necesidad de tratar dicha desigualdad desde la perspectiva de la justicia global. Tras rechazar los argumentos en contra tanto del libertarismo de derechas como del estatalismo, y tras exponer las críticas tanto al lenguaje de los derechos humanos como a la propuesta poggeana de reducir los deberes de la justicia global a deberes morales negativos, defiendo la necesidad de partir de un criterio de justicia global suficientista y basado en los deberes morales positivos para afrontar la gravedad y la urgencia moral que suponen las desigualdades globales de salud.

HIV/AIDS: global trends, global funds and delivery bottlenecks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hadingham Jacqui

2005-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Globalisation affects all facets of human life, including health and well being. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has highlighted the global nature of human health and welfare and globalisation has given rise to a trend toward finding common solutions to global health challenges. Numerous international funds have been set up in recent times to address global health challenges such as HIV. However, despite increasingly large amounts of funding for health initiatives being made available to poorer regions of the world, HIV infection rates and prevalence continue to increase world wide. As a result, the AIDS epidemic is expanding and intensifying globally. Worst affected are undoubtedly the poorer regions of the world as combinations of poverty, disease, famine, political and economic instability and weak health infrastructure exacerbate the severe and far-reaching impacts of the epidemic. One of the major reasons for the apparent ineffectiveness of global interventions is historical weaknesses in the health systems of underdeveloped countries, which contribute to bottlenecks in the distribution and utilisation of funds. Strengthening these health systems, although a vital component in addressing the global epidemic, must however be accompanied by mitigation of other determinants as well. These are intrinsically complex and include social and environmental factors, sexual behaviour, issues of human rights and biological factors, all of which contribute to HIV transmission, progression and mortality. An equally important factor is ensuring an equitable balance between prevention and treatment programmes in order to holistically address the challenges presented by the epidemic.

Global Supply-Chain Strategy And Global Competitiveness

OpenAIRE

Asghar Sabbaghi; Navid Sabbaghi

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to provide an analysis of global supply chain in a broader context that encompasses not only the producing company, but suppliers and customers.The theme of this study is to identify global sourcing and selling options, to enhance customer service and value added, to optimize inventory performance, to reduce total delivered costs and lead times, to achieve lower break-even costs, and to improve operational flexibility, customization and partner relations. In this ...

An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

2018-03-01

The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

Industrial point source CO2 emission strength estimation with aircraft measurements and dispersion modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Carotenuto, Federico; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Miglietta, Franco; Riccio, Angelo; Toscano, Piero; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Gioli, Beniamino

2018-02-22

CO 2 remains the greenhouse gas that contributes most to anthropogenic global warming, and the evaluation of its emissions is of major interest to both research and regulatory purposes. Emission inventories generally provide quite reliable estimates of CO 2 emissions. However, because of intrinsic uncertainties associated with these estimates, it is of great importance to validate emission inventories against independent estimates. This paper describes an integrated approach combining aircraft measurements and a puff dispersion modelling framework by considering a CO 2 industrial point source, located in Biganos, France. CO 2 density measurements were obtained by applying the mass balance method, while CO 2 emission estimates were derived by implementing the CALMET/CALPUFF model chain. For the latter, three meteorological initializations were used: (i) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by ECMWF reanalyses; (ii) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by CFSR reanalyses and (iii) local in situ observations. Governmental inventorial data were used as reference for all applications. The strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and how they affect emission estimation uncertainty were investigated. The mass balance based on aircraft measurements was quite succesful in capturing the point source emission strength (at worst with a 16% bias), while the accuracy of the dispersion modelling, markedly when using ECMWF initialization through the WRF model, was only slightly lower (estimation with an 18% bias). The analysis will help in highlighting some methodological best practices that can be used as guidelines for future experiments.

Global warming-setting the stages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

Most of us have heard or read about global warming. However, the messages we receive are often in conflict, raising more questions than answer. Is global warming a good or a bad thing? has it already started or is it part of our future? Are we, or are we not doing anything about it? Should we be concerned? This primer on Global Warming is designed to clear up some of this confusion by providing basic scientific information on global warming issue. It is clear that there is still much to learn about global warming. However, it is also clear that there is a lot that we already know - and that dose provide cause for concern. We must understand the global warming issue if we are to make wise decisions and take responsible actions in response to the challenges and opportunities posed by global warming. Chapter 1 of 'the primer on global Warming' set the stage with a brief overview of science of global warming within the context of climate change. In addition, it introduces the specific issues that surround the global warming problem. As far as the science of global warming is concerned the following questions are discussed. What is global climate? Is climate change natural? What causes climate to vary on a global scale? How does the composition of the atmosphere relate to climate change. but there are also certain issues discussed here which surround the global warming such as: If climate varies naturally, why is there a concern about 'global warming'? What are the potential consequences of 'global warning'. What human activities contribute to 'global warming'. (Author)

Tobacco industry globalization and global health governance: towards an interdisciplinary research agenda

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kelley; Eckhardt, Jappe; Holden, Chris

2016-01-01

Shifting patterns of tobacco production and consumption, and the resultant disease burden worldwide since the late twentieth century, prompted efforts to strengthen global health governance through adoption of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. While the treaty is rightfully considered an important achievement, to address a neglected public health issue through collective action, evidence suggests that tobacco industry globalization continues apace. In this article, we provide a systematic review of the public health literature and reveal definitional and measurement imprecision, ahistorical timeframes, transnational tobacco companies and the state as the primary units and levels of analysis, and a strong emphasis on agency as opposed to structural power. Drawing on the study of globalization in international political economy and business studies, we identify opportunities to expand analysis along each of these dimensions. We conclude that this expanded and interdisciplinary research agenda provides the potential for fuller understanding of the dual and dynamic relationship between the tobacco industry and globalization. Deeper analysis of how the industry has adapted to globalization over time, as well as how the industry has influenced the nature and trajectory of globalization, is essential for building effective global governance responses. This article is published as part of a thematic collection dedicated to global governance. PMID:28458910

Tobacco industry globalization and global health governance: towards an interdisciplinary research agenda.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kelley; Eckhardt, Jappe; Holden, Chris

2016-01-01

Shifting patterns of tobacco production and consumption, and the resultant disease burden worldwide since the late twentieth century, prompted efforts to strengthen global health governance through adoption of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. While the treaty is rightfully considered an important achievement, to address a neglected public health issue through collective action, evidence suggests that tobacco industry globalization continues apace. In this article, we provide a systematic review of the public health literature and reveal definitional and measurement imprecision, ahistorical timeframes, transnational tobacco companies and the state as the primary units and levels of analysis, and a strong emphasis on agency as opposed to structural power. Drawing on the study of globalization in international political economy and business studies, we identify opportunities to expand analysis along each of these dimensions. We conclude that this expanded and interdisciplinary research agenda provides the potential for fuller understanding of the dual and dynamic relationship between the tobacco industry and globalization. Deeper analysis of how the industry has adapted to globalization over time, as well as how the industry has influenced the nature and trajectory of globalization, is essential for building effective global governance responses. This article is published as part of a thematic collection dedicated to global governance.

The psychology of globalization.

Science.gov (United States)

Arnett, Jeffrey Jensen

2002-10-01

The influence of globalization on psychological functioning is examined. First, descriptions of how globalization is occurring in various world regions are presented. Then the psychological consequences of globalization are described, with a focus on identity issues. Specifically, it is argued that most people worldwide now develop a bicultural identity that combines their local identity with an identity linked to the global culture; that identity confusion may be increasing among young people in non-Western cultures as a result of globalization; that some people join self-selected cultures to maintain an identity that is separate from the global culture; and that a period of emerging adulthood increasingly extends identity explorations beyond adolescence, through the mid- to late twenties.

Gendering Globalization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Siim, Birte

2009-01-01

The current global financial situation bluntly and brutally brings home the fact that the global and local are closely connected in times of opportunity as well as crises. The articles in this issue of Asia Insights are about ontra-action between Asia, particularly China, and the Nordic countries...

Cosmic microwave background constraints for global strings and global monopoles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Lizarraga, Joanes; Urrestilla, Jon [Department of Theoretical Physics, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, 48080 Bilbao (Spain); Hindmarsh, Mark, E-mail: asier.lopez@ehu.eus, E-mail: joanes.lizarraga@ehu.eus, E-mail: m.b.hindmarsh@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: jon.urrestilla@ehu.eus [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QH (United Kingdom)

2017-07-01

We present the first cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra from numerical simulations of the global O( N ) linear σ-model, with N =2,3, which have global strings and monopoles as topological defects. In order to compute the CMB power spectra we compute the unequal time correlators (UETCs) of the energy-momentum tensor, showing that they fall off at high wave number faster than naive estimates based on the geometry of the defects, indicating non-trivial (anti-)correlations between the defects and the surrounding Goldstone boson field. We obtain source functions for Einstein-Boltzmann solvers from the UETCs, using a recently developed method that improves the modelling at the radiation-matter transition. We show that the interpolation function that mimics the transition is similar to other defect models, but not identical, confirming the non-universality of the interpolation function. The CMB power spectra for global strings and global monopoles have the same overall shape as those obtained using the non-linear σ-model approximation, which is well captured by a large- N calculation. However, the amplitudes are larger than the large- N calculation would naively predict, and in the case of global strings much larger: a factor of 20 at the peak. Finally we compare the CMB power spectra with the latest CMB data in other to put limits on the allowed contribution to the temperature power spectrum at multipole l = 10 of 1.7% for global strings and 2.4% for global monopoles. These limits correspond to symmetry-breaking scales of 2.9× 10{sup 15} GeV (6.3× 10{sup 14} GeV with the expected logarithmic scaling of the effective string tension between the simulation time and decoupling) and 6.4× 10{sup 15} GeV respectively. The bound on global strings is a significant one for the ultra-light axion scenario with axion masses m {sub a} ∼< 10{sup −28} eV . These upper limits indicate that gravitational waves from global topological defects will not be observable at

Globalization: the evolution of enterprises in the global network competition

OpenAIRE

Borghoff, Thomas; Welge, Martin K.

2001-01-01

The globalization of a company is embedded in the globalization of its task environment. This process can be described as a co-evolutionary process of a social system in its environment. A historical view of the globalization of competition seems to prove that it can be interpreted as an evolutionary process of differentiation and integration that is reinforced by the decreasing rigidity of boundaries. A liquefaction of competition" can be observed, in which an increasing number of autonomous...

Globalization of healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-01

Globalization-the increasing transnational circulation of money, goods, people, ideas, and information worldwide-is generally recognized as one of the most powerful forces shaping our current and future history. How is it affecting healthcare, and in that context, what is the purpose and significance of Global Advances in Health and Medicine (GAHM), publisher of this journal? Our goal is not homogenization but rather to provide an opportunity for integration, convergence, and collaboration across cultures. By respecting and conserving the richness and diversity of each new medicine, we embrace globalization. Globalization is of course not new; it began in the Renaissance and particularly with the 15th- and 16th-century voyages of exploration by Columbus, Magellan, and others. Since the beginning of time, there have been interactions and exchanges among different peoples and cultures. However, the current magnitude of globalization is unprecedented and yet still expanding rapidly.

Global gravitational anomalies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Witten, E.

1985-01-01

A general formula for global gauge and gravitational anomalies is derived. It is used to show that the anomaly free supergravity and superstring theories in ten dimensions are all free of global anomalies that might have ruined their consistency. However, it is shown that global anomalies lead to some restrictions on allowed compactifications of these theories. For example, in the case of O(32) superstring theory, it is shown that a global anomaly related to π 7 (O(32)) leads to a Dirac-like quantization condition for the field strength of the antisymmetric tensor field. Related to global anomalies is the question of the number of fermion zero modes in an instanton field. It is argued that the relevant gravitational instantons are exotic spheres. It is shown that the number of fermion zero modes in an instanton field is always even in ten dimensional supergravity. (orig.)

Global Tobacco Surveillance System (GTSS) - Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2008-2012. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Office on Smoking and Health (OSH) – Global Tobacco Surveillance System (GTSS) - Global Adult Tobacco...

Comments on "Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System"

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Scott A.

2010-01-01

." In this comment, evidence from satellite and global meteorological analyses is presented that casts considerable doubt upon RL1 s interpretation of the GEOS-5 forecasts and their conclusion that the results implied a negative role of the SAL. We show that the major portion of the warm, dry air aloft was located in a nearly dust-free slot between two Saharan dust outbreaks, had a significant source from the midlatitudes (>30 N), and was likely driven by strong subsidence warming and drying. In addition, when wind fields are examined in a reference frame moving with the wave, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global meteorological analyses suggest that the cool tongue in the boundary layer can be readily explained by transport of cooler air from higher latitudes. At the very least, it offers a plausible alternative explanation for the cool tongue that does not rely on radiative impacts of the dust.

Global marketing and globalization miths Os mitos do marketing global e da globalização

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renato Rodrigues Martins

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Global marketing and advertising: understanding cultural paradoxes, de Marieke de Mooij, 3rd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA. Sage Publications, 2010, 322p.Global marketing and advertising: understanding cultural paradoxes, de Marieke de Mooij, 3rd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA. Sage Publications, 2010, 322p.

Statistical analysis of exacerbation rates in COPD: TRISTAN and ISOLDE revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keene, O N; Calverley, P M A; Jones, P W

2008-01-01

different analysis methods, we have reanalysed data from two large studies which, among other objectives, investigated the effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids in reducing COPD exacerbation rates. Using the negative binomial model to reanalyse data from the TRISTAN and ISOLDE studies, the overall...... estimates of exacerbation rates on each treatment arm are higher and the confidence intervals for comparisons between treatments are wider, but the overall conclusions of TRISTAN and ISOLDE regarding reduction of exacerbations remain unchanged. The negative binomial approach appears to provide a better fit...

U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

Science.gov (United States)

Tilmes, Curt

2012-01-01

The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

Im/mobilities and dis/connectivities in medical globalisation: How global is Global Health?

Science.gov (United States)

Dilger, Hansjörg; Mattes, Dominik

2018-03-01

The interdisciplinary, politically contested field of Global Health has often been described as a consequence of, and response to, an intensification of the mobilities of, and connectivities between, people, pathogens, ideas, and infrastructure across national borders and large distances. However, such global mobilities and connectivities are not as omnidirectional and unpatterned as the rhetoric of many Global Health actors suggests. Instead, we argue that they are suffused by a plethora of institutional, national, and global political agendas, and substantially shaped by transnational and postcolonial power relations. Furthermore, the configurations that are typically subsumed under the category of Global Health represent only a minor part of the range of im/mobilities and dis/connectivities that are essential for understanding transformations of epidemiological patterns, health care infrastructures, and the responses to health-related challenges in a globalising world. In order to broaden such a limiting analytical perspective, we propose to expand the analytical focus in studying Global Health phenomena by paying close attention to the myriad ways in which particular im/mobilities and dis/connectivities constitute medicine and well-being in global and transnational settings. Pursuing a conceptual shift from studies of 'Global Health' to studying 'medical globalization' may carve out new analytical ground for such an endeavour.

Global Collaborative STEM Education

Science.gov (United States)

Meabh Kelly, Susan; Smith, Walter

2016-04-01

Global Collaborative STEM Education, as the name suggests, simultaneously supports two sets of knowledge and skills. The first set is STEM -- science, technology, engineering and math. The other set of content knowledge and skills is that of global collaboration. Successful global partnerships require awareness of one's own culture, the biases embedded within that culture, as well as developing awareness of the collaborators' culture. Workforce skills fostered include open-mindedness, perseverance when faced with obstacles, and resourceful use of technological "bridges" to facilitate and sustain communication. In respect for the 2016 GIFT Workshop focus, Global Collaborative STEM Education projects dedicated to astronomy research will be presented. The projects represent different benchmarks within the Global Collaborative STEM Education continuum, culminating in an astronomy research experience that fully reflects how the global STEM workforce collaborates. To facilitate wider engagement in Global Collaborative STEM Education, project summaries, classroom resources and contact information for established international collaborative astronomy research projects will be disseminated.

Global Uddannelse

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Niels Rosendal

Antologien handler om "demokratiproblemer i den globale sammenhæng" (del I) og "demokratiproblemer i uddannelse og for de offentligt ansatte" (del II), bundet sammen af et mellemstykke, der rækker ud mod begge poler både det globale og det lokale ved at knytte det til forholdet mellem marked...

The Work of Globalization: How Standardization May Impact the Globalization of Work

OpenAIRE

Cochoy , Franck

2002-01-01

Does the globalization of product markets entail a globalization of labor? In order to answer this type of question, the paper tries to highlight the link between the impossible globalization of work and the continuous emergence of standardization as a “work of globalization”.

GLOBAL KEYNESIANISM AND BEYOND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gernot Kohler

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Something like "global Keynesianism" or "transnational socialism" has been mentioned as a desirable alternative to global neoliberalism (Redmond 1997. However, a definition of this kind of global Keynesianism is hard to find. Many leftists tend to associate Keynesianism with corporate power. However, there are also numerous other leftists who view this differently. For example, a member of parliament for the German Green Party stated in a recent interview that "a reformist party today has to be a left-Keynesian party which contradicts the logic of capital" (Ebermann 1998. A number of scholars from several countries, including Canada, pursue post-Keynesian-ism, in the sense of left-Keynesian economics (e.g., Seccareccia 1991. How-ever, available left-Keynesian literature, as I see it, is lacking a world-system perspective. I am trying in this article to synthesize the two perspectives-namely, left-Keynesianism and world-system theory, leading to a perspective of global left-Keynesianism. This leftist global Keynesianism can, perhaps, be described as an approach to economics which emphasizes responsible public management of economic problems in a world-system context. Common themes in global Keynesianism include the importance of public management, democratic politics, the mixed economy, global income distribution, the management of global demand, investment and money, ecological sustainability and the importance of multiple levels of public management-local, national, regional and global.

Interrelations of UV-global/global/diffuse solar irradiance components and UV-global attenuation on air pollution episode days in Athens, Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koronakis, P.S.; Sfantos, G.K.

2002-01-01

An investigation of global ultraviolet (G UV ), global (G) and diffuse (G d ) solar intensities, continuously recorded over a period of five years at a station in Athens, Greece, and stored on the basis of hourly time intervals since 1996, has revealed the following: (a) UV-global irradiation, associated with the 290-395 nm wavelength region, constitutes 4.1% of global solar. (b) UV-global irradiance ranges from an average minimum of 2.4 W m -2 and 3.1% of global solar in January to an average maximum of 45 W m -2 and 7.8%, respectively, in June, both considered at 13:00, solar time. (c) There exists a good correlation among the two dimensionless irradiance ratios G UV /G d and G d /G in the form of an exponential relationship. (d) UV-global monthly irradiation data show evidence of temporal variability in Athens, from 1996 to 2000. (e) Anthropogenic and photochemical atmospheric pollutant agents (O 3 , CO, SO 2 , NO x , smoke) causing air pollution episodes seem to affect differently solar irradiance components. The main results of analysis (measurements within ± 2 h from solar noon) indicate that a buildup of O 3 and NO x inside the urban Athens plume during cloudless and windless warm days could cause: (i) UV-global irradiance depletion between 5.4% and 14.4%. (ii) Diffuse solar irradiance enhancement up to 38.1%. (iii) Global solar irradiance attenuation ranging up to 6.3%. (author)

Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model – Part 2: Experimental campaigns in Northern Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Haustein

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Pérez et al., 2011 develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1 in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are

Generalized global symmetries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaiotto, Davide; Kapustin, Anton; Seiberg, Nathan; Willett, Brian

2015-01-01

A q-form global symmetry is a global symmetry for which the charged operators are of space-time dimension q; e.g. Wilson lines, surface defects, etc., and the charged excitations have q spatial dimensions; e.g. strings, membranes, etc. Many of the properties of ordinary global symmetries (q=0) apply here. They lead to Ward identities and hence to selection rules on amplitudes. Such global symmetries can be coupled to classical background fields and they can be gauged by summing over these classical fields. These generalized global symmetries can be spontaneously broken (either completely or to a subgroup). They can also have ’t Hooft anomalies, which prevent us from gauging them, but lead to ’t Hooft anomaly matching conditions. Such anomalies can also lead to anomaly inflow on various defects and exotic Symmetry Protected Topological phases. Our analysis of these symmetries gives a new unified perspective of many known phenomena and uncovers new results.

Globalization and business ethics

OpenAIRE

Khadartseva, L.; Agnaeva, L.

2014-01-01

It is assumed that local conditions of markets may be different, but some global markets, ethics and social responsibility principles should be applicable to all markets. As markets globalize and an increasing proportion of business activity transcends national borders, institutions need to help manage, regulate, and police the global marketplace, and to promote the establishment of multinational treaties to govern the global business system

Globalization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Plum, Maja

Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

Globalization

OpenAIRE

F. Gerard Adams

2008-01-01

The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

2004-01-01

This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3??C. In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases

Metabolic Syndrome Derived from Principal Component Analysis and Incident Cardiovascular Events: The Multi Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subhashish Agarwal

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Background. The NCEP metabolic syndrome (MetS is a combination of dichotomized interrelated risk factors from predominantly Caucasian populations. We propose a continuous MetS score based on principal component analysis (PCA of the same risk factors in a multiethnic cohort and compare prediction of incident CVD events with NCEP MetS definition. Additionally, we replicated these analyses in the Health, Aging, and Body composition (Health ABC study cohort. Methods and Results. We performed PCA of the MetS elements (waist circumference, HDL, TG, fasting blood glucose, SBP, and DBP in 2610 Caucasian Americans, 801 Chinese Americans, 1875 African Americans, and 1494 Hispanic Americans in the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA cohort. We selected the first principal component as a continuous MetS score (MetS-PC. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between MetS-PC and 5.5 years of CVD events (n=377 adjusting for age, gender, race, smoking and LDL-C, overall and by ethnicity. To facilitate comparison of MetS-PC with the binary NCEP definition, a MetS-PC cut point was chosen to yield the same 37% prevalence of MetS as the NCEP definition (37% in the MESA cohort. Hazard ratio (HR for CVD events were estimated using the NCEP and Mets-PC-derived binary definitions. In Cox proportional models, the HR (95% CI for CVD events for 1-SD (standard deviation of MetS-PC was 1.71 (1.54–1.90 (P<0.0001 overall after adjusting for potential confounders, and for each ethnicity, HRs were: Caucasian, 1.64 (1.39–1.94, Chinese, 1.39 (1.06–1.83, African, 1.67 (1.37–2.02, and Hispanic, 2.10 (1.66-2.65. Finally, when binary definitions were compared, HR for CVD events was 2.34 (1.91–2.87 for MetS-PC versus 1.79 (1.46–2.20 for NCEP MetS. In the Health ABC cohort, in a fully adjusted model, MetS-PC per 1-SD (Health ABC remained associated with CVD events (HR=1.21, 95%CI 1.12–1.32 overall, and for each ethnicity, Caucasian (HR

Globalization and Economic Freedom

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørnskov, Christian

2006-01-01

This paper employs a panel data set to estimate the effect of globalization on four measures of economic freedom. Contrary to previous studies, the paper distinguishes between three separate types of globalization: economic, social and political. It also separates effects for poor and rich...... countries, and autocracies and democracies. The results show that economic globalization is negatively associated with government size and positively with regulatory freedom in rich countries; social globalization is positively associated with legal quality in autocracies and with the access to sound money...... in democracies. Political globalization is not associated with economic freedom...

Globalization, Inequality, Say’s Law, and Fiscal Globalism

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Gerasimos T. Soldatos

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This is a brief note maintaining that financial globalization has been faster than the integration of the remaining sectors of the world economy, thus encouraging wealth inequality, under-production, and under-consumption in line with Say’s Law. Financial investment has become more profitable than real investment, discouraging production ventures, and weakening labor’s relative income position and purchasing power. Moreover, this article works out a model of international government indirect tax competition as a policy means against increasing inequality. The mentality under which this tax policy paradigm is put forward is that the competition of nation states in a fiscal globalism fashion crystallizes the optimal level of centralization under globalism; optimal, that is, from the viewpoint of safeguarding against the manipulation of world markets by financiers.

Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

Globalization, culture and psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Melluish, Steve

2014-10-01

This article outlines the cultural and psychological effects of globalization. It looks at the impact of globalization on identity; ideas of privacy and intimacy; the way we understand and perceive psychological distress; and the development of the profession of psychology around the world. The article takes a critical perspective on globalization, seeing it as aligned with the spread of neoliberal capitalism, a tendency towards cultural homogenization, the imposition of dominant 'global north' ideas and the resultant growing inequalities in health and well-being. However, it also argues that the increased interconnectedness created by globalization allows for greater acknowledgement of our common humanity and for collective efforts to be developed to tackle what are increasingly global problems. This requires the development of more nuanced understandings of cultural differences and of indigenous psychologies.

Globalization and its methodological discontents: Contextualizing globalization through the study of HIV/AIDS

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

There remains considerable discontent between globalization scholars about how to conceptualize its meaning and in regards to epistemological and methodological questions concerning how we can come to understand how these processes ultimately operate, intersect and transform our lives. This article argues that to better understand what globalization is and how it affects issues such as global health, we must take a differentiating approach, which focuses on how the multiple processes of globalization are encountered and informed by different social groups and with how these encounters are experienced within particular contexts. The article examines the heuristic properties of qualitative field research as a means to help better understand how the intersections of globalization are manifested within particular locations. To do so, the article focuses on three recent case studies conducted on globalization and HIV/AIDS and explores how these cases can help us to understand the contextual permutations involved within the processes of globalization. PMID:21861895

Global citizenship is key to securing global health: the role of higher education.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoner, Lee; Perry, Lane; Wadsworth, Daniel; Stoner, Krystina R; Tarrant, Michael A

2014-07-01

Despite growing public awareness, health systems are struggling under the escalating burden of non-communicable diseases. While personal responsibility is crucial, alone it is insufficient. We argue that one must place themselves within the broader/global context to begin to truly understand the health implications of personal choices. Global citizenship competency has become an integral part of the higher education discourse; this discourse can and should be extended to include global health. A global citizen is someone who is (1) aware of global issues, (2) socially responsible, and (3) civically engaged. From this perspective, personal health is not solely an individual, self-serving act; rather, the consequences of our lifestyle choices and behaviors have far-reaching implications. This paper will argue that, through consciously identifying global health within the constructs of global citizenship, institutions of higher education can play an instrumental role in fostering civically engaged students capable of driving social change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Globalization and its methodological discontents: Contextualizing globalization through the study of HIV/AIDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Labonté Ronald

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract There remains considerable discontent between globalization scholars about how to conceptualize its meaning and in regards to epistemological and methodological questions concerning how we can come to understand how these processes ultimately operate, intersect and transform our lives. This article argues that to better understand what globalization is and how it affects issues such as global health, we must take a differentiating approach, which focuses on how the multiple processes of globalization are encountered and informed by different social groups and with how these encounters are experienced within particular contexts. The article examines the heuristic properties of qualitative field research as a means to help better understand how the intersections of globalization are manifested within particular locations. To do so, the article focuses on three recent case studies conducted on globalization and HIV/AIDS and explores how these cases can help us to understand the contextual permutations involved within the processes of globalization.

Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastava, Kuldeep; Pradhan, D.

2018-01-01

Two events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34 cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31 cm and Baran received 25 cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5 cm), Pratapgarh (23.2 cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7 cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on day 1 and day 2 forecasts and with small errors in intensity and space for day 3.

Time to go global: a consultation on global health competencies for postgraduate doctors

Science.gov (United States)

Walpole, Sarah C.; Shortall, Clare; van Schalkwyk, May CI; Merriel, Abi; Ellis, Jayne; Obolensky, Lucy; Casanova Dias, Marisa; Watson, Jessica; Brown, Colin S.; Hall, Jennifer; Pettigrew, Luisa M.; Allen, Steve

2016-01-01

Background Globalisation is having profound impacts on health and healthcare. We solicited the views of a wide range of stakeholders in order to develop core global health competencies for postgraduate doctors. Methods Published literature and existing curricula informed writing of seven global health competencies for consultation. A modified policy Delphi involved an online survey and face-to-face and telephone interviews over three rounds. Results Over 250 stakeholders participated, including doctors, other health professionals, policymakers and members of the public from all continents of the world. Participants indicated that global health competence is essential for postgraduate doctors and other health professionals. Concerns were expressed about overburdening curricula and identifying what is ‘essential’ for whom. Conflicting perspectives emerged about the importance and relevance of different global health topics. Five core competencies were developed: (1) diversity, human rights and ethics; (2) environmental, social and economic determinants of health; (3) global epidemiology; (4) global health governance; and (5) health systems and health professionals. Conclusions Global health can bring important perspectives to postgraduate curricula, enhancing the ability of doctors to provide quality care. These global health competencies require tailoring to meet different trainees' needs and facilitate their incorporation into curricula. Healthcare and global health are ever-changing; therefore, the competencies will need to be regularly reviewed and updated. PMID:27241136

Recent topical research on global, energy, health & medical, and tourism economics, and global software: An overview

OpenAIRE

Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael

2017-01-01

textabstractThe paper presents an overview of recent topical research on global, energy, health & medical, and tourism economics, and global software. We have interpreted "global" in the title of the Journal of Reviews on Global Economics to cover contributions that have a global impact on economics, thereby making it "global economics". In this sense, the paper is concerned with papers on global, energy, health & medical, and tourism economics, as well as global software algorithms that have...

Globalization and economic cooperation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Divar

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Economic globalization is nothing, really, that the universality of capitalism. Not globalized culture, and economic participation, and human rights, ... has only globalized market. We must react by substituting those materialistic values with cooperative economy.

Advances in Global Water Cycle Science Made Possible by Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Eric A.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Within this decade the internationally sponsored Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) will take an important step in creating a global precipitation observing system from space. One perspective for understanding the nature of GPM is that it will be a hierarchical system of datastreams from very high caliber combined dual frequency radar/passive microwave (PMW) rain-radiometer retrievals, to high caliber PMW rain-radiometer only retrievals, and on to blends of the former datastreams with other less-high caliber PMW-based and IR-based rain retrievals. Within the context of NASA's role in global water cycle science and its own Global Water & Energy Cycle (GWEC) program, GPM is the centerpiece mission for improving our understanding of the global water cycle from a space-based measurement perspective. One of the salient problems within our current understanding of the global water and energy cycle is determining whether a change in the rate of the water cycle is accompanying changes in global temperature. As there are a number of ways in which to define a rate-change of the global water cycle, it is not entirely clear as to what constitutes such a determination, This paper presents an overview of the Global Precipitation Mission and how its datasets can be used in a set of quantitative tests within the framework of the oceanic and continental water budget equations to determine comprehensively whether substantive rate changes do accompany perturbations in global temperatures and how such rate changes manifest themselves in both water storage and water flux transport processes.

Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health.

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza

2010-09-17

It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martens Pim

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

Globalization as It Happens

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flyverbom, Mikkel

2012-01-01

Globalization is usually understood as a structural, epochal condition altering the environment in which people, organizations, and societies operate. But such accounts offer little insight into the infrastructures, practices, and connections that facilitate the production of the global. This art......Globalization is usually understood as a structural, epochal condition altering the environment in which people, organizations, and societies operate. But such accounts offer little insight into the infrastructures, practices, and connections that facilitate the production of the global....... This article uses findings from an ethnographic study of tax planning to show how mundane practices and connectivities forge and organize global operations, and to argue for the value of analyzing processes of globalization in terms of assemblages and infrastructures. Empirically, the article captures how...... the making of ‘tax structures’ involves connecting, for instance, buildings in France, a human in Switzerland, a company in Denmark, various tax laws, a trust fund in New Zealand, and large amounts of money on the move. If studied along the lines of an analytics of ‘globalizing assemblages’, such financial...

Recent Topical Research on Global, Energy, Health & Medical, and Tourism Economics, and Global Software

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2017-01-01

textabstractThe paper presents an overview of recent topical research on global, energy, health & medical, and tourism economics, and global software. We have interpreted “global” in the title of the Journal of Reviews on Global Economics to cover contributions that have a global impact on

The Global Value Chain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Olav Jull

The conference paper aims to develop the global value chain concept by including corporate internal value adding activities and competition to the basic framework in order to turn the global value chain into a strategic management tool......The conference paper aims to develop the global value chain concept by including corporate internal value adding activities and competition to the basic framework in order to turn the global value chain into a strategic management tool...

Economic Globalization - a Phenomenon of Global Business Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radu-Marcel Joia

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Tumultuous economic life led scientists to seek explanations to the negative economic events,events that take many forms, and to whom it is a must to find a solution or even a mitigating factor. Thefoundation of the economy has undergone many changes. The recent events manifested in the world economyshow that the underlying fundamentals of this science must be revised because they proved to be wrong. Itnotes several times, mainly due to present economic crisis, that currently the economics have no theoreticaland practical means and no tools of analysis and intervention in the economy, proving that the existing onesare exceeded and insufficient, so that the creation of an unifying principle and of some generalizing conceptsthat could systematize and forecast the current economic phenomena in the microeconomics andmacroeconomics, especially in the transnational companies field, those which are the base of the foreigndirect investment flows, should become the main objective of the new economic science. Through this paper,we tried to illustrate the important aspects of economic globalization, the challenges that this phenomenonposes to economies and the way in which an economy can become globally competitive, under massiveconstraints of the global competition, how a national company can become globally integrated, study basedon representative references.

Global atmospheric changes.

OpenAIRE

Piver, W T

1991-01-01

Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the proces...

Mapping the global health employment market: an analysis of global health jobs.

Science.gov (United States)

Keralis, Jessica M; Riggin-Pathak, Brianne L; Majeski, Theresa; Pathak, Bogdan A; Foggia, Janine; Cullinen, Kathleen M; Rajagopal, Abbhirami; West, Heidi S

2018-02-27

The number of university global health training programs has grown in recent years. However, there is little research on the needs of the global health profession. We therefore set out to characterize the global health employment market by analyzing global health job vacancies. We collected data from advertised, paid positions posted to web-based job boards, email listservs, and global health organization websites from November 2015 to May 2016. Data on requirements for education, language proficiency, technical expertise, physical location, and experience level were analyzed for all vacancies. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the aforementioned job characteristics. Associations between technical specialty area and requirements for non-English language proficiency and overseas experience were calculated using Chi-square statistics. A qualitative thematic analysis was performed on a subset of vacancies. We analyzed the data from 1007 global health job vacancies from 127 employers. Among private and non-profit sector vacancies, 40% (n = 354) were for technical or subject matter experts, 20% (n = 177) for program directors, and 16% (n = 139) for managers, compared to 9.8% (n = 87) for entry-level and 13.6% (n = 120) for mid-level positions. The most common technical focus area was program or project management, followed by HIV/AIDS and quantitative analysis. Thematic analysis demonstrated a common emphasis on program operations, relations, design and planning, communication, and management. Our analysis shows a demand for candidates with several years of experience with global health programs, particularly program managers/directors and technical experts, with very few entry-level positions accessible to recent graduates of global health training programs. It is unlikely that global health training programs equip graduates to be competitive for the majority of positions that are currently available in this field.

The future of global health education: training for equity in global health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa V. Adams

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Among academic institutions in the United States, interest in global health has grown substantially: by the number of students seeking global health opportunities at all stages of training, and by the increase in institutional partnerships and newly established centers, institutes, and initiatives to house global health programs at undergraduate, public health and medical schools. Witnessing this remarkable growth should compel health educators to question whether the training and guidance that we provide to students today is appropriate, and whether it will be applicable in the next decade and beyond. Given that “global health” did not exist as an academic discipline in the United States 20 years ago, what can we expect it will look like 20 years from now and how can we prepare for that future? Discussion Most clinicians and trainees today recognize the importance of true partnership and capacity building in both directions for successful international collaborations. The challenge is in the execution of these practices. There are projects around the world where this is occurring and equitable partnerships have been established. Based on our experience and observations of the current landscape of academic global health, we share a perspective on principles of engagement, highlighting instances where partnerships have thrived, and examples of where we, as a global community, have fallen short. Conclusions As the world moves beyond the charity model of global health (and its colonial roots, it is evident that the issue underlying ethical global health practice is partnership and the pursuit of health equity. Thus, achieving equity in global health education and practice ought to be central to our mission as educators and advisors when preparing trainees for careers in this field. Seeking to eliminate health inequities wherever they are ingrained will reveal the injustices around the globe and in our own cities and

Global Issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seitz, J.L.

2001-10-15

Global Issues is an introduction to the nature and background of some of the central issues - economic, social, political, environmental - of modern times. This new edition of this text has been fully updated throughout and features expanded sections on issues such as global warming, biotechnology, and energy. Fully updated throughout and features expanded sections on issues such as global warming, biotechnology, and energy. An introduction to the nature and background of some of the central issues - economic, social, political, environmental - of modern times. Covers a range of perspectives on a variety of societies, developed and developing. Extensively illustrated with diagrams and photographs, contains guides to further reading, media, and internet resources, and includes suggestions for discussion and studying the material. (author)

Global Inequality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel; Roope, Laurence; Tarp, Finn

2017-01-01

This paper measures trends in global interpersonal inequality during 1975–2010 using data from the most recent version of the World Income Inequality Database (WIID). The picture that emerges using ‘absolute,’ and even ‘centrist’ measures of inequality, is very different from the results obtained...... by centrist measures such as the Krtscha, could return to 1975 levels, at today's domestic and global per capita income levels, but this would require quite dramatic structural reforms to reduce domestic inequality levels in most countries....... using standard ‘relative’ inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient or Coefficient of Variation. Relative global inequality has declined substantially over the decades. In contrast, ‘absolute’ inequality, as captured by the Standard Deviation and Absolute Gini, has increased considerably...

Global Cancer Humanitarian Award

Science.gov (United States)

Pat Garcia-Gonzalez of the Max Foundation accepted the first annual NCI Global Cancer Medicine Humanitarian Award for her work in chronic myeloid leukemia at the NCI, Center for Global Health Symposium for Global Cancer Research, held in Boston on March 25, 2015.

Globalization, Local and Global Identities of Students (Case study: University of Tabriz

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akram Hobbi

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The process of globalization is both a disputable issue and an ambiguous one and it has been approached through various and sometimes contradictory views. One of the major topics related to the process of globalization is the subject of survival or persistence of local identities in the mainstream of global economy and culture. Different views have been presented in this respect. One of them claims that globalization has a negative influence on local identities, and eliminates the differences. Some others, however, state an opposite view. This paper has identified three fundamental but different approaches and examines them by the research’s data .This research which its subjects are Fars, Turk and Kurd students of Tabriz University, indicates that as the global identity among the students’ increases, their local identities decrease. In other words, with enhancement of globalization process, local identities starts to decrease and it means that second and third approach’s theories in the research is rejected and the first approach’s theories are confirmed.

GLOBAL OR NATIONAL BRANDS?

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Sorina GÎRBOVEANU

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Today, branding is such a strong force that hardly anything goes unbranded. Branding in global markets poses several challenges to the marketers. A key decision is the choice between global and nationals brands. This article gives the answers to the questions: what is, what is need for, what are the advantages, costs and risks of global and national brands? All go to the following conclusion: use global brands where possible and national brands where necessary.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verburg, Peter H [Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Ellis, Erle C [Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250 (United States); Letourneau, Aurelien, E-mail: Peter.Verburg@ivm.vu.nl [UMR 5175 Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5 (France)

2011-07-15

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

Science.gov (United States)

Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

2011-07-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verburg, Peter H; Ellis, Erle C; Letourneau, Aurelien

2011-01-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

Global Sourcing of Services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørberg Jensen, Peter D.; Petersen, Bent

2013-01-01

The global sourcing of services offers high returns but is also associated with high risks. The extent to which firms engage in ‘transformational’ global sourcing (i.e., global sourcing implying considerable changes in the home organization) chiefly depends on management's comfort zone which...

European strategy/global strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Testore, R. [FIAT Auto S.p.A., Turin (Italy)

1998-08-01

In order to be `global`, a carmaker has to satisfy three main criteria: a global customer service, a global market presence, a global respect for the environment. Just in a word, the automotive industry needs to develop - and has indeed already launched - a process of global re-engineering of its: product, processes, and market. The product is not simply a `car`, but a global mobility service. This is what an increasingly diversified clientele is demanding in order to meet its particular mobility needs in terms of comfort and safety, in a way that does not damage the environment and at welldefined, competitive costs. The process is not just a matter of the way we design, manufacture and distribute our product. We have to re-design our entire corporate profile, redefine the parameters of our specific strategic mission, identifying the levels of control and our core business in a way that is consistent with our particular history, market positioning and growth targets. The market is no longer hard set, but is globally diversified, ready to expand into important niches and to meet the personalized needs of specific users: from VIPs to the elderly or the disables, and so on. (orig.)

Gender and Economic Globalization