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Sample records for global elaboration model

  1. Review of Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion

    藤原, 武弘; 神山, 貴弥

    1989-01-01

    This article mainly introduces Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), proposed by Petty & Cacioppo, that is, a general attitude change theory. ELM posturates two routes to persuasion; central and peripheral route. Attitude change by central route is viewed as resulting from a diligent consideration of the issue-relevant informations presented. On the other hand, attitude change by peripheral route is viewed as resulting from peripheral cues in the persuasion context. Secondly we compare these tw...

  2. Dual elaboration models in attitude change processes

    Žeželj Iris

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This article examines empirical and theoretical developments in research on attitude change in the past 50 years. It focuses the period from 1980 till present as well as cognitive response theories as the dominant theoretical approach in the field. The postulates of Elaboration Likelihood Model, as most-researched representative of dual process theories are studied, based on review of accumulated research evidence. Main research findings are grouped in four basic factors: message source, message content, message recipient and its context. Most influential criticisms of the theory are then presented regarding its empirical base and dual process assumption. Some possible applications and further research perspectives are discussed at the end.

  3. Menyoal Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) dan Teori Retorika

    Yudi Perbawaningsih

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Persuasion is a communication process to establish or change attitudes, which can be understood through theory of Rhetoric and theory of Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). This study elaborates these theories in a Public Lecture series which to persuade the students in choosing their concentration of study. The result shows that in term of persuasion effectiveness it is not quite relevant to separate the message and its source. The quality of source is determined by the quality of ...

  4. Menyoal Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) Dan Teori Retorika

    Perbawaningsih, Yudi

    2012-01-01

    : Persuasion is a communication process to establish or change attitudes, which can be understood through theory of Rhetoric and theory of Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). This study elaborates these theories in a Public Lecture series which to persuade the students in choosing their concentration of study. The result shows that in term of persuasion effectiveness it is not quite relevant to separate the message and its source. The quality of source is determined by the quality of the mess...

  5. The elaboration likelihood model and communication about food risks.

    Frewer, L J; Howard, C; Hedderley, D; Shepherd, R

    1997-12-01

    Factors such as hazard type and source credibility have been identified as important in the establishment of effective strategies for risk communication. The elaboration likelihood model was adapted to investigate the potential impact of hazard type, information source, and persuasive content of information on individual engagement in elaborative, or thoughtful, cognitions about risk messages. One hundred sixty respondents were allocated to one of eight experimental groups, and the effects of source credibility, persuasive content of information and hazard type were systematically varied. The impact of the different factors on beliefs about the information and elaborative processing examined. Low credibility was particularly important in reducing risk perceptions, although persuasive content and hazard type were also influential in determining whether elaborative processing occurred.

  6. Elaboration and verification of a PTS model

    Martins, G.P. de; Terra, J L; Di Lorenzo, R; Mansur, T R [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Prifo, S B [Atomic Energy Research Inst. AEKI/KFKI (Hungary)

    1997-09-01

    This work concerns to pressurize the thermal shock (PTS) phenomena, it is rapid cooldown of the primary system by low temperature water injection from the emergency core cooling system (ECCS). To assess the effect of a PTS event calculations and experimental work are equally necessary. The purpose of the present was to prepare the PTS analysis of Angra II RPV located near to Rio de Janeiro. This paper presents the method and the results of the calculations used to design an optimal RPV model. (author). 4 refs, 7 figs, 6 tabs.

  7. Reconceptualizing Social Influence in Counseling: The Elaboration Likelihood Model.

    McNeill, Brian W.; Stoltenberg, Cal D.

    1989-01-01

    Presents Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion (a reconceptualization of the social influence process) as alternative model of attitude change. Contends ELM unifies conflicting social psychology results and can potentially account for inconsistent research findings in counseling psychology. Provides guidelines on integrating…

  8. Counseling Pretreatment and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Attitude Change.

    Heesacker, Martin

    1986-01-01

    Results of the application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to a counseling context revealed that more favorable attitudes toward counseling occurred as subjects' ego involvement increased and as intervention quality improved. Counselor credibility affected the degree to which subjects' attitudes reflected argument quality differences.…

  9. Penggunaan Elaboration Likelihood Model dalam Menganalisis Penerimaan Teknologi Informasi

    vitrian, vitrian2

    2010-01-01

    This article discusses some technology acceptance models in an organization. Thorough analysis of how technology is acceptable help managers make any planning to implement new teachnology and make sure that new technology could enhance organization's performance. Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) is the one which sheds light on some behavioral factors in acceptance of information technology. The basic tenet of ELM states that human behavior in principle can be influenced through central r...

  10. PROFESSIONAL COMPETITIVE EVOLUTION AND QUANTIFICATION MODELS IN ACCOUNTING SERVICE ELABORATION

    Gheorghe FATACEAN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article consists in using an assessment framework of the accounting service elaboration. The purpose of this model is the identification and revaluation of an elite group of expert accounts from Romania, which should provide solutions to solve the most complex legal matters in the legal field, in the field of criminal, tax, civil, or commercial clauses making the object of law suits.

  11. Menyoal Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM dan Teori Retorika

    Yudi Perbawaningsih

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Persuasion is a communication process to establish or change attitudes, which can be understood through theory of Rhetoric and theory of Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM. This study elaborates these theories in a Public Lecture series which to persuade the students in choosing their concentration of study. The result shows that in term of persuasion effectiveness it is not quite relevant to separate the message and its source. The quality of source is determined by the quality of the message, and vice versa. Separating the two routes of the persuasion process as described in the ELM theory would not be relevant. Abstrak: Persuasi adalah proses komunikasi untuk membentuk atau mengubah sikap, yang dapat dipahami dengan teori Retorika dan teori Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM. Penelitian ini mengelaborasi teori tersebut dalam Kuliah Umum sebagai sarana mempersuasi mahasiswa untuk memilih konsentrasi studi studi yang didasarkan pada proses pengolahan informasi. Menggunakan metode survey, didapatkan hasil yaitu tidaklah cukup relevan memisahkan pesan dan narasumber dalam melihat efektivitas persuasi. Keduanya menyatu yang berarti bahwa kualitas narasumber ditentukan oleh kualitas pesan yang disampaikannya, dan sebaliknya. Memisahkan proses persuasi dalam dua lajur seperti yang dijelaskan dalam ELM teori menjadi tidak relevan.

  12. Race of source effects in the elaboration likelihood model.

    White, P H; Harkins, S G

    1994-11-01

    In a series of experiments, we investigated the effect of race of source on persuasive communications in the Elaboration Likelihood Model (R.E. Petty & J.T. Cacioppo, 1981, 1986). In Experiment 1, we found no evidence that White participants responded to a Black source as a simple negative cue. Experiment 2 suggested the possibility that exposure to a Black source led to low-involvement message processing. In Experiments 3 and 4, a distraction paradigm was used to test this possibility, and it was found that participants under low involvement were highly motivated to process a message presented by a Black source. In Experiment 5, we found that attitudes toward the source's ethnic group, rather than violations of expectancies, accounted for this processing effect. Taken together, the results of these experiments are consistent with S.L. Gaertner and J.F. Dovidio's (1986) theory of aversive racism, which suggests that Whites, because of a combination of egalitarian values and underlying negative racial attitudes, are very concerned about not appearing unfavorable toward Blacks, leading them to be highly motivated to process messages presented by a source from this group.

  13. ELABORATION OF THE COMPUTATIONAL MODEL OF THE PLANETARY PRECESSIONAL TRANSMISSION

    BOSTAN Ion

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The specific character of sphere-spatial motion used in the precessional transmissions makes impossible the utilization of involute profiles of classical teeth. This fact requires the elaboration of new non-standard profiles, which in conditions of using the sphere-spatial motion with an immovable point of the satellite would assure constancy transfer function, the multiplicity of the precessional gear and consequently high carrying capacity of the precessional transmission in general.

  14. ATTITUDE-CHANGE FOLLOWING PERSUASIVE COMMUNICATION - INTEGRATING SOCIAL JUDGMENT THEORY AND THE ELABORATION LIKELIHOOD MODEL

    SIERO, FW; DOOSJE, BJ

    1993-01-01

    An experiment was conducted to examine the influence of the perceived extremity of a message and motivation to elaborate upon the process of persuasion. The first goal was to test a model of attitude change relating Social Judgment Theory to the Elaboration Likelihood Model. The second objective was

  15. Elaboration of collisional–radiative models for flows related to planetary entries into the Earth and Mars atmospheres

    Bultel, Arnaud; Annaloro, Julien

    2013-01-01

    The most relevant way to predict the excited state number density in a nonequilibrium plasma is to elaborate a collisional–radiative (CR) model taking into account most of the collisional and radiative elementary processes. Three examples of such an elaboration are given in this paper in the case of various plasma flows related to planetary atmospheric entries. The case of theoretical determination of nitrogen atom ionization or recombination global rate coefficients under electron impact is addressed first. The global rate coefficient can be implemented in multidimensional computational fluid dynamics calculations. The case of relaxation after a shock front crossing a gas of N 2 molecules treated in the framework of the Rankine–Hugoniot assumptions is also studied. The vibrational and electronic specific CR model elaborated in this case allows one to understand how the plasma reaches equilibrium and to estimate the role of the radiative losses. These radiative losses play a significant role at low pressure in the third case studied. This case concerns CO 2 plasma jets inductively generated in high enthalpy wind tunnels used as ground test facilities. We focus our attention on the behaviour of CO and C 2 electronic excited states, the radiative signature of which can be particularly significant in this type of plasma. These three cases illustrate the elaboration of CR models and their coupling with balance equations. (paper)

  16. Elaborate SMART MCNP Modelling Using ANSYS and Its Applications

    Song, Jaehoon; Surh, Han-bum; Kim, Seung-jin; Koo, Bonsueng

    2017-09-01

    An MCNP 3-dimensional model can be widely used to evaluate various design parameters such as a core design or shielding design. Conventionally, a simplified 3-dimensional MCNP model is applied to calculate these parameters because of the cumbersomeness of modelling by hand. ANSYS has a function for converting the CAD `stp' format into an MCNP input in the geometry part. Using ANSYS and a 3- dimensional CAD file, a very detailed and sophisticated MCNP 3-dimensional model can be generated. The MCNP model is applied to evaluate the assembly weighting factor at the ex-core detector of SMART, and the result is compared with a simplified MCNP SMART model and assembly weighting factor calculated by DORT, which is a deterministic Sn code.

  17. Shielding study of a fusion machine. Elaboration of a global shielding calculation scheme for the Tokamak tore Supra

    Diop, C.M'B.

    1984-01-01

    This thesis presents a global shielding calculation scheme for neutron and gamma rays arising from the Tokamak TORE SUPRA fusion device, in which a deuterium plasma is used. To study the shield parameters we have elabored a important chaining of neutron and gamma transport codes, TRIPOLI, ANISN, MERCURE 4, allowing to evaluate the radial and skyshine components of the dose rate behind the concrete shield. The study of thermonuclear neutron activation is fundamental to define a tokamak exploitation strategy. For this, two formalisme have been developed. They are based on a modelization of the activation reaction rates according to TRIPOLI, ANISN, and MERCURE 4 codes capabilities. The first one calculates, in one dimensional geometry, the desactivation gamma dose rate inside the vacuum chamber. The second one is a tridimensional model which determines the spatial variation of the gamma dose rate in the machine room. The problem of the existence of runaway electrons and associated secondaries radiations, bremsstrahlung gamma rays particularly, is approched. The results which are presented have contributed to define the parameters of the concrete shield and a strategy for TORE SUPRA Tokamak exploitation [fr

  18. Strut elaboration in strut-and-tie model

    Mohammad PANJEHPOUR

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The Strut-and-Tie Model (STM has been incorporated into the codes and standards because of its consistency and rationality since last decade. However, it has encountered few challenges whilst its implementation. The effective compressive strength of strut has been a complex issue among researchers since emergence of STM. This review serves as a base for future developments of STM. It addresses several ways towards enhancing our understanding of strut performance in the STM. It also throws up questions for further investigation of effective compressive strength of strut in the STM. This review is confined to the evaluation of strut effectiveness factor based on the available codes and standards particularly AASHTO LRFD and ACI 318-08. According to the example given in this paper, there is sometimes a marked difference of approximately 50% between strut effectiveness factor recommended by AASHTO LRFD and ACI 318-08. More broadly, research is needed to determine which of the complicated strut effectiveness factor recommended by AASHTO LRFD and the simple one recommended by ACI 318-08 is optimum.

  19. Source and Message Factors in Persuasion: A Reply to Stiff's Critique of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

    Petty, Richard E.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Answers James Stiff's criticism of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion. Corrects certain misperceptions of the ELM and criticizes Stiff's meta-analysis that compares ELM predictions with those derived from Kahneman's elastic capacity model. Argues that Stiff's presentation of the ELM and the conclusions he draws based on the data…

  20. Elaboration Likelihood Model and an Analysis of the Contexts of Its Application

    Aslıhan Kıymalıoğlu

    2014-01-01

    Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), which supports the existence of two routes to persuasion: central and peripheral routes, has been one of the major models on persuasion. As the number of studies in the Turkish literature on ELM is limited, a detailed explanation of the model together with a comprehensive literature review was considered to be contributory for this gap. The findings of the review reveal that the model was mostly used in marketing and advertising researches, that the concept...

  1. Simulations with Elaborated Worked Example Modeling: Beneficial Effects on Schema Acquisition

    Meier, Debra K.; Reinhard, Karl J.; Carter, David O.; Brooks, David W.

    2008-01-01

    Worked examples have been effective in enhancing learning outcomes, especially with novice learners. Most of this research has been conducted in laboratory settings. This study examined the impact of embedding elaborated worked example modeling in a computer simulation practice activity on learning achievement among 39 undergraduate students…

  2. Evaluation of Smoking Prevention Television Messages Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model

    Flynn, Brian S.; Worden, John K.; Bunn, Janice Yanushka; Connolly, Scott W.; Dorwaldt, Anne L.

    2011-01-01

    Progress in reducing youth smoking may depend on developing improved methods to communicate with higher risk youth. This study explored the potential of smoking prevention messages based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to address these needs. Structured evaluations of 12 smoking prevention messages based on three strategies derived from…

  3. The Elaboration Likelihood Model: Implications for the Practice of School Psychology.

    Petty, Richard E.; Heesacker, Martin; Hughes, Jan N.

    1997-01-01

    Reviews a contemporary theory of attitude change, the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion, and addresses its relevance to school psychology. Claims that a key postulate of ELM is that attitude change results from thoughtful (central route) or nonthoughtful (peripheral route) processes. Illustrations of ELM's utility for school…

  4. Examining Sex Differences in Altering Attitudes About Rape: A Test of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

    Heppner, Mary J.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Intervention sought to improve first-year college students' attitudes about rape. Used the Elaboration Likelihood Model to examine men's and women's attitude change process. Found numerous sex differences in ways men and women experienced and changed during and after intervention. Women's attitude showed more lasting change while men's was more…

  5. Application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Attitude Change to Assertion Training.

    Ernst, John M.; Heesacker, Martin

    1993-01-01

    College students (n=113) participated in study comparing effects of elaboration likelihood model (ELM) based assertion workshop with those of typical assertion workshop. ELM-based workshop was significantly better at producing favorable attitude change, greater intention to act assertively, and more favorable evaluations of workshop content.…

  6. The Elaboration Likelihood Model and Proxemic Violations as Peripheral Cues to Information Processing.

    Eaves, Michael

    This paper provides a literature review of the elaboration likelihood model (ELM) as applied in persuasion. Specifically, the paper addresses distraction with regard to effects on persuasion. In addition, the application of proxemic violations as peripheral cues in message processing is discussed. Finally, the paper proposes to shed new light on…

  7. Elaboration Likelihood Model and an Analysis of the Contexts of Its Application

    Aslıhan Kıymalıoğlu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM, which supports the existence of two routes to persuasion: central and peripheral routes, has been one of the major models on persuasion. As the number of studies in the Turkish literature on ELM is limited, a detailed explanation of the model together with a comprehensive literature review was considered to be contributory for this gap. The findings of the review reveal that the model was mostly used in marketing and advertising researches, that the concept most frequently used in elaboration process was involvement, and that argument quality and endorser credibility were the factors most often employed in measuring their effect on the dependant variables. The review provides valuable insights as it presents a holistic view of the model and the variables used in the model.

  8. A review of studies on persuasion from the viewpoint of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (1)

    Fukada, Hiromi; Kimura, Kenichi; Makino, Koshi; Higuchi, Masataka

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this paper was to review studies on persuasion from the viewpoint of the Elaboration Likelihood Model based on Petty & Wegener (1998). The paper consists of the following four parts. 1. Introduction. 2. Multiple roles for persuasion variables. 3. Source variables: (1) credibility (expertise, trustworthiness), (2) attractiveness/likableness, (3) power, (4) additional source factors related to credibility, liking and power (speed of speech, demographic variables, majority/minorit...

  9. Elaboration of technology organizational models of constructing high-rise buildings in plans of construction organization

    Osipenkova, Irina; Simankina, Tatyana; Syrygina, Taisiia; Lukinov, Vitaliy

    2018-03-01

    This article represents features of the elaboration of technology organizational models of high-rise building construction in technology organizational documentation on the example of the plan of construction organization. Some examples of enhancing the effectiveness of high-rise building construction based on developments of several options of the organizational and technological plan are examined. Qualitative technology organizational documentation allows to increase the competitiveness of construction companies and provides prime cost of construction and assembly works reductions. Emphasis is placed on the necessity to comply with the principle of comprehensiveness of engineering, scientific and research works, development activities and scientific and technical support.

  10. A methodology proposal for collaborative business process elaboration using a model-driven approach

    Mu, Wenxin; Bénaben, Frédérick; Pingaud, Hervé

    2015-05-01

    Business process management (BPM) principles are commonly used to improve processes within an organisation. But they can equally be applied to supporting the design of an Information System (IS). In a collaborative situation involving several partners, this type of BPM approach may be useful to support the design of a Mediation Information System (MIS), which would ensure interoperability between the partners' ISs (which are assumed to be service oriented). To achieve this objective, the first main task is to build a collaborative business process cartography. The aim of this article is to present a method for bringing together collaborative information and elaborating collaborative business processes from the information gathered (by using a collaborative situation framework, an organisational model, an informational model, a functional model and a metamodel and by using model transformation rules).

  11. Effects of deceptive packaging and product involvement on purchase intention: an elaboration likelihood model perspective.

    Lammers, H B

    2000-04-01

    From an Elaboration Likelihood Model perspective, it was hypothesized that postexposure awareness of deceptive packaging claims would have a greater negative effect on scores for purchase intention by consumers lowly involved rather than highly involved with a product (n = 40). Undergraduates who were classified as either highly or lowly (ns = 20 and 20) involved with M&Ms examined either a deceptive or non-deceptive package design for M&Ms candy and were subsequently informed of the deception employed in the packaging before finally rating their intention to purchase. As anticipated, highly deceived subjects who were low in involvement rated intention to purchase lower than their highly involved peers. Overall, the results attest to the robustness of the model and suggest that the model has implications beyond advertising effects and into packaging effects.

  12. Conceptual model elaboration for the safety assessment of phosphogypsum use in sanitary landfills

    Cota, Stela D.; Braga, Leticia T.P.; Jacomino, Vanusa F.

    2009-01-01

    Phosphogypsum is a by-product of the phosphatic fertilizer production from the beneficiation of phosphate minerals (apatites). Produced in large quantities throughout the world and stored temporally in stacks, the final destination of this product is nowadays a subject of investigation. Due to the presence of radionuclides ( 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K, mainly), possible applications for the phosphogypsum must be verified for radiological safety. The goal of this paper was to elaborate a representative water flow conceptual model of a sanitary landfill for the safety assessment of the impact of using phosphogypsum as a cover material. For this, the ground water flow in variably saturated conditions and solute transport model HYDRUS-2D has been used for simulating the impact in the saturated zone of potential radionuclides leaching. The conceptual model was developed by collecting and analyzing the data from environmental license documentation of municipal sanitary landfills located on the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. In order to fulfill the requirements of HDRUS-2D model in terms of the necessary parameters, the physical characteristics and typical configuration of the landfills, as well as the hydrogeological parameters of soils and aquifers related to the local of placement of the landfills, were taken in account for the formulation of the conceptual model. (author)

  13. STUDY CONCERNING THE ELABORATION OF CERTAIN ORIENTATION MODELS AND THE INITIAL SELECTION FOR SPEED SKATING

    Vaida Marius

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In realizing this study I started from the premise that, by elaborating certain orientation models and initial selection for the speed skating and their application will appear superior results, necessary results, taking into account the actual evolution of the high performance sport in general and of the speed skating, in special.The target of this study has been the identification of an orientation model and a complete initial selection that should be based on the favorable aptitudes of the speed skating. On the basis of the made researched orientation models and initial selection has been made, things that have been demonstrated experimental that are not viable, the study starting from the data of the 120 copies, the complete experiment being made by 32 subjects separated in two groups, one using the proposed model and the other formed fromsubjects randomly selected.These models can serve as common working instruments both for the orientation process and for the initial selection one, being able to integrate in the proper practical activity, these being used easily both by coaches that are in charge with the proper selection of the athletes but also by the physical education teachers orschool teachers that are in contact with children of an early age.

  14. Global Delivery Models

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  15. Global ice sheet modeling

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  16. Development of social skills in children: neural and behavioral evidence for the elaboration of cognitive models

    Soto-Icaza, Patricia; Aboitiz, Francisco; Billeke, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Social skills refer to a wide group of abilities that allow us to interact and communicate with others. Children learn how to solve social situations by predicting and understanding other's behaviors. The way in which humans learn to interact successfully with others encompasses a complex interaction between neural, behavioral, and environmental elements. These have a role in the accomplishment of positive developmental outcomes, including peer acceptance, academic achievement, and mental health. All these social abilities depend on widespread brain networks that are recently being studied by neuroscience. In this paper, we will first review the studies on this topic, aiming to clarify the behavioral and neural mechanisms related to the acquisition of social skills during infancy and their appearance in time. Second, we will briefly describe how developmental diseases like Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) can inform about the neurobiological mechanisms of social skills. We finally sketch a general framework for the elaboration of cognitive models in order to facilitate the comprehension of human social development. PMID:26483621

  17. Using the Elaboration Likelihood Model to Address Drunkorexia Among College Students.

    Glassman, Tavis; Paprzycki, Peter; Castor, Thomas; Wotring, Amy; Wagner-Greene, Victoria; Ritzman, Matthew; Diehr, Aaron J; Kruger, Jessica

    2017-12-26

    The many consequences related to alcohol consumption among college students are well documented. Drunkorexia, a relatively new term and area of research, is characterized by skipping meals to reduce caloric intake and/or exercising excessively in attempt to compensate for calories associated with high volume drinking. The objective of this study was to use the Elaboration Likelihood Model to compare the impact of central and peripheral prevention messages on alcohol consumption and drunkorexic behavior. Researchers employed a quasi-experimental design, collecting pre- or post-test data from 172 college students living in residence halls at a large Midwestern university, to assess the impact of the prevention messages. Participants in the treatment groups received the message in person (flyer), through email, and via a text message in weekly increments. Results showed that participants exposed to the peripherally framed message decreased the frequency of their alcohol consumption over a 30-day period (p =.003), the number of drinks they consumed the last time they drank (p =.029), the frequency they had more than five drinks over a 30-day period (p =.019), as well as the maximum number of drinks they had on any occasion in the past 30 days (p =.014). Conclusions/Importance: While more research is needed in this area, the findings from this study indicate that researchers and practitioners should design peripheral (short and succinct), rather than central (complex and detailed), messages to prevent drunkorexia and its associated behaviors.

  18. Applying the elaboration likelihood model of persuasion to a videotape-based eating disorders primary prevention program for adolescent girls.

    Withers, Giselle F; Wertheim, Eleanor H

    2004-01-01

    This study applied principles from the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion to the prevention of disordered eating. Early adolescent girls watched either a preventive videotape only (n=114) or video plus post-video activity (verbal discussion, written exercises, or control discussion) (n=187); or had no intervention (n=104). Significantly more body image and knowledge improvements occurred at post video and follow-up in the intervention groups compared to no intervention. There were no outcome differences among intervention groups, or between girls with high or low elaboration likelihood. Further research is needed in integrating the videotape into a broader prevention package.

  19. An Elaboration Likelihood Model Based Longitudinal Analysis of Attitude Change during the Process of IT Acceptance via Education Program

    Lee, Woong-Kyu

    2012-01-01

    The principal objective of this study was to gain insight into attitude changes occurring during IT acceptance from the perspective of elaboration likelihood model (ELM). In particular, the primary target of this study was the process of IT acceptance through an education program. Although the Internet and computers are now quite ubiquitous, and…

  20. Influencing Attitudes Regarding Special Class Placement Using a Psychoeducational Report: An Investigation of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

    Andrews, Lester W.; Gutkin, Terry B.

    1994-01-01

    Investigates variables drawn from the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) that might be manipulated to enhance the persuasiveness of a psychoeducational report. Results showed teachers in training were more persuaded by reports with high message quality. Findings are discussed in terms of the ELM and professional school psychology practice. (RJM)

  1. Regionalizing global climate models

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  2. A few examples go a long way: Constructing query models from elaborate query formulations

    Balog, K.; Weerkamp, W.; de Rijke, M.; Myaeng, S.-H.; Oard, D.W.; Sebastiani, F.; Chua, T.-S.; Leong, M.-K.

    2008-01-01

    We address a specific enterprise document search scenario, where the information need is expressed in an elaborate manner. In our scenario, information needs are expressed using a short query (of a few keywords) together with examples of key reference pages. Given this setup, we investigate how the

  3. Global Hail Model

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  4. An Elaboration of a Strategic Alignment Model of University Information Systems based on SAM Model

    S. Ahriz

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Information system is a guarantee of the universities' ability to anticipate the essential functions to their development and durability. The alignment of information system, one of the pillars of IT governance, has become a necessity. In this paper, we consider the problem of strategic alignment model implementation in Moroccan universities. Literature revealed that few studies have examined strategic alignment in the public sector, particularly in higher education institutions. Hence we opted for an exploratory approach that aims to better understanding the strategic alignment and to evaluate the degree of its use within Moroccan universities. The data gained primarily through interviews with top managers and IT managers reveal that the alignment is not formalized and that it would be appropriate to implement an alignment model. It is found that the implementation of our proposed model can help managers to maximize returns of IT investment and to increase their efficiency.

  5. An analysis on Public Service Announcements (PSA) within the scope of Elaboration Likelihood Model: Orange and Hazelnut Consumption Samples

    Bical, Adil; Yılmaz, R. Ayhan

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to reveal that how persuasion works in public service announcements on hazelnut and orange consumption ones broadcasted in Turkey. According to Petty and Cacioppo, Elaboration Likelihood Model explains the process of persuasion on two routes: central and peripheral. In-depth interviews were conducted to obtain the goal of the study. Respondents were asked whether they process the message of the PSA centrally or peripherally. Advertisements on consumption of hazelnu...

  6. Elaborating on Threshold Concepts

    Rountree, Janet; Robins, Anthony; Rountree, Nathan

    2013-01-01

    We propose an expanded definition of Threshold Concepts (TCs) that requires the successful acquisition and internalisation not only of knowledge, but also its practical elaboration in the domains of applied strategies and mental models. This richer definition allows us to clarify the relationship between TCs and Fundamental Ideas, and to account…

  7. The Global Flood Model

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  8. Global Volcano Model

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  9. Tobacco industry's elaborate attempts to control a global track and trace system and fundamentally undermine the Illicit Trade Protocol.

    Gilmore, Anna B; Gallagher, Allen W A; Rowell, Andy

    2018-06-13

    The Illicit Trade Protocol (ITP) requires a global track and trace (T&T) system to reduce tobacco smuggling. Given the tobacco industry's (TI) historical involvement in tobacco smuggling, it stipulates that T&T 'shall not be performed by or delegated to the tobacco industry'. This paper explores the rationale for & nature of the TI's effors to influence the ITP & its T&T system. Analysis of leaked TI documents and publicly available data; ,investigation of front groups, trademark and patent ownership. Growing & diverse sources of evidence indicate that the TI remains involved in tobacco smuggling and that TI cigarettes account for around two-thirds of the illicit cigarette market. The TI therefore has a vested interest in controlling the global T&T system aimed to curtail this behaviour. To this end, Philip Morris International (PMI) adapted its pack marker system, Codentify, to meet T&T requirements, licensed it for free to its three major competitors who then collectively promoted it to governments using front groups and third parties including companies claiming to be independent despite clear TI links. PMI also sought to suggest Codentify was independent by selling some parts of its intellectual property on Codentify while retaining others, leaving a complex web of shared interests. In Africa, British American Tobacco used payments to obtain data suggesting its smaller competitor companies were evading taxes and secure influence with tax authorities. Regulatory capture has been enhanced by a public relations effort involving TI funding for conferences, training, research, and international police and anti-corruption organisations. Collectively this has created public messaging and a powerful network of organisations supportive of the TI's misleading postion on illicit. Governments should assume the TI seeks to control T&T systems in order to avoid scrutiny and minimise excise tax payments and that any T&T system based on Codentify, on intellectual property

  10. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

  11. The Open Global Glacier Model

    Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

  12. The elaboration of a manufacturing flow connectivity model, based on Multi Agent System

    Fahhama Lamyae

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this paper was to establish a model of the industrial flow connectivity; Afterward, we’ve detailed a network configuration model based on the multi-agents systems, to study the interactions between all the actors and give a more realistic vision onto manufacturing coordination in the supply chain.

  13. Global Delivery Models

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  14. Global Delivery Models

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush M.

    2015-01-01

    antecedents and contingencies of setting up GDM structures. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM location configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent and speed of service delivery, in particular when services are highly commoditized...

  15. Elaboration of a model of the nuclear fragmentation and application to the method of isotopic separation of projectile fragments

    Gaimard, J.J.

    1990-10-01

    In this thesis the experimental results on the cross sections for the production of 36 P in the fragmentation of 403 MeV/u 40 Ar on a carbon target are presented. Furthermore some models of the nuclear fragmentation are elaborated and compared by means of experimental data for the production of gold and cerium isotopes in the reaction 12 C+ 209 Bi at 400 MeV/u, of chlorine, sulfur, aluminium, magnesium, and oxygen isotopes in the reactions 40 Ar+ 12 C at 600 MeV/u and 48 Ca+ 9 Be at 212 MeV/u, and of cobalt, manganese, vanadium, and scandium isotopes together with the charge distributions for A=43 and A=44 in the reactions 40 Ar+ 64 Cu at 2 GeV/u and 56 Fe+ 12 C at 600 MeV/u. (HSI)

  16. Elaboration of the Reciprocal-Engagement Model of Genetic Counseling Practice: a Qualitative Investigation of Goals and Strategies.

    Redlinger-Grosse, Krista; Veach, Patricia McCarthy; LeRoy, Bonnie S; Zierhut, Heather

    2017-12-01

    As the genetic counseling field evolves, a comprehensive model of practice is critical. The Reciprocal-Engagement Model (REM) consists of 5 tenets and 17 goals. Lacking in the REM, however, are well-articulated counselor strategies and behaviors. The purpose of the present study was to further elaborate and provide supporting evidence for the REM by identifying and mapping genetic counseling strategies to the REM goals. A secondary, qualitative analysis was conducted on data from two prior studies: 1) focus group results of genetic counseling outcomes (Redlinger-Grosse et al., Journal of Genetic Counseling, 2015); and 2) genetic counselors' examples of successful and unsuccessful genetic counseling sessions (Geiser et al. 2009). Using directed content analysis, 337 unique strategies were extracted from focus group data. A Q-sort of the 337 strategies yielded 15 broader strategy domains that were then mapped to the successful and unsuccessful session examples. Differing prevalence of strategy domains identified in successful sessions versus the prevalence of domains identified as lacking in unsuccessful sessions provide further support for the REM goals. The most prevalent domains for successful sessions were Information Giving and Use Psychosocial Skills and Strategies; and for unsuccessful sessions, Information Giving and Establish Working Alliance. Identified strategies support the REM's reciprocal nature, especially with regard to addressing patients' informational and psychosocial needs. Patients' contributions to success (or lack thereof) of sessions was also noted, supporting a REM tenet that individual characteristics and the counselor-patient relationship are central to processes and outcomes. The elaborated REM could be used as a framework for certain graduate curricular objectives, and REM components could also inform process and outcomes research studies to document and further characterize genetic counselor strategies.

  17. Elaborations on the Socioegocentric and Dual-Level Connectionist Models of Group Interaction Processes

    Hewes, Dean E.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the author's contribution to this colloquy was to spark conversation on the theoretical nature of communication processes and the evidentiary requirements for testing their relationship to group outcomes. Co-discussants have raised important issues concerning the philosophical basis of the socioegocentric model (SM) and dual-level…

  18. Global nuclear material control model

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material

  19. Thermo-hydrodynamic and inductive modelling of a glass melt elaborated in cold inductive crucible

    Sauvage, E.

    2009-11-01

    Within the context of a search for a new vitrification process for nuclear wastes with a replacement of the presently used metallic pot by an inductive cold crucible, this research thesis deals with the numerical modelling of this technology. After having recalled the interest of nuclear waste vitrification, this report presents the new process based on the use of a cold crucible, describing principles and objectives of this method, and the characteristic physical phenomena associated with the flow and the thermodynamics of the glassy melt in such a crucible. It also recalls and comments the existing works on modelling. The main objective of this research is then to demonstrate the feasibility of 3D thermo-hydraulic and inductive simulations. He describes and analyses the glass physical properties (electrical properties, viscosity, thermal properties), the electromagnetic, hydrodynamic and thermal phenomena. He presents in detail the bubbling mixing modelling, reports 3D induction and fluid mechanical coupling calculations, and specific thermal investigations (radiating transfers, thermal limit conditions)

  20. Complex methodology of the model elaboration of the quantified transnationalization process assessment

    Larysa Rudenko-Sudarieva

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available In the article there are studied the theoretical fundamentals of transnationalization, the peculiarities of its development based on the studying of the world theory and practices; suggested a systematic approach of the methodical background as for determination of the economic category of «transnationalization» and its author’s definition; developed a complex methodology of the model building of the quantified transnationalization process assessment based on the seven-milestone algorithm of the formation of key indicators; systematized and carried out synthesis of the empiric investigations concerning the state, development of the available tendencies, comparative analysis of the transnationalization level within the separate TNC’s groups.

  1. A biosocial developmental model of borderline personality: Elaborating and extending Linehan's theory.

    Crowell, Sheila E; Beauchaine, Theodore P; Linehan, Marsha M

    2009-05-01

    Over the past several decades, research has focused increasingly on developmental precursors to psychological disorders that were previously assumed to emerge only in adulthood. This change in focus follows from the recognition that complex transactions between biological vulnerabilities and psychosocial risk factors shape emotional and behavioral development beginning at conception. To date, however, empirical research on the development of borderline personality is extremely limited. Indeed, in the decade since M. M. Linehan initially proposed a biosocial model of the development of borderline personality disorder, there have been few attempts to test the model among at-risk youth. In this review, diverse literatures are reviewed that can inform understanding of the ontogenesis of borderline pathology, and testable hypotheses are proposed to guide future research with at-risk children and adolescents. One probable pathway is identified that leads to borderline personality disorder; it begins with early vulnerability, expressed initially as impulsivity and followed by heightened emotional sensitivity. These vulnerabilities are potentiated across development by environmental risk factors that give rise to more extreme emotional, behavioral, and cognitive dysregulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. A Biosocial Developmental Model of Borderline Personality: Elaborating and Extending Linehan’s Theory

    Crowell, Sheila E.; Beauchaine, Theodore P.; Linehan, Marsha M.

    2009-01-01

    Over the past several decades, research has focused increasingly on developmental precursors to psychological disorders that were previously assumed to emerge only in adulthood. This change in focus follows from the recognition that complex transactions between biological vulnerabilities and psychosocial risk factors shape emotional and behavioral development beginning at conception. To date, however, empirical research on the development of borderline personality is extremely limited. Indeed, in the decade since M. M. Linehan initially proposed a biosocial model of the development of borderline personality disorder, there have been few attempts to test the model among at-risk youth. In this review, diverse literatures are reviewed that can inform understanding of the ontogenesis of borderline pathology, and testable hypotheses are proposed to guide future research with at-risk children and adolescents. One probable pathway is identified that leads to borderline personality disorder; it begins with early vulnerability, expressed initially as impulsivity and followed by heightened emotional sensitivity. These vulnerabilities are potentiated across development by environmental risk factors that give rise to more extreme emotional, behavioral, and cognitive dysregulation. PMID:19379027

  3. Innovative and logistics development business model elaboration of the economy of Ukraine

    Любов Олександрівна Кравченко

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The problematic position of export operations of the enterprises on foreign trade format are analyzed in the article. The variant of implementation of innovative and logistics elements in the enterprise management system is considered in order to increase the export potential of the enterprise. It is shown that combination of the innovative direction with the logistics is possible using enterprise management paradigm. Such approach would increase the competitiveness of the offered products on the international market. The conceptual model of innovative and investment development of the export potential of enterprises is proposed to determine the potential of the company to produce and promote competitive products on the external market and provide competitive services in the required quantity, the right quality in a timely manner with minimal costs.

  4. Elaboration, organisation and optical properties of carbon nano-particles as interstellar dust models

    Galvez, Aymeric

    1999-01-01

    Astrophysical and space observations from ultraviolet to infrared (IR) wavelengths provide the only signatures of carbon cosmic dust which is formed in the vicinity of old stars by molecular species condensation around 1000 K. Despite numerous models developed, a fundamental question concerns the exact nature of these grains in space. Their sampling being impossible, a better knowledge of these objects requires earth analogues obtained in conditions as close as possible of those met in space. Implying synthesis mechanism similar to those postulated for carbon cosmic dust, infrared laser pyrolysis (IRLP) appears as a versatile method in order to produce a wide variety of nanoparticles able to reproduce the main signatures characteristics of the interstellar carbon dust. We checked that the synthesised particles by this method showed strong analogies with carbon dust from the point of view of their infrared spectroscopy. The majority of the bands observed by the astrophysicists are present in spectra. Nevertheless defects exist and can be connected to the too small size of the poly-aromatic units present in such deposits. In order to confirm this size effect and to refine the spectroscopic agreement, we chose two different way by acting either directly on the synthesis by modifying the most relevant experimental parameters (temperature of flame, residence time of the reagent in the reactional zone) or indirectly by the means of post-processing (annealing, irradiation). In order to follow the optical, structural and micro-textural evolutions, the deposits thus formed or treated were characterised by infrared spectroscopy, Transmission electron Microscopy (TeM) and by image analysis of the TeM patterns in order to correlate, their organisation multi-scales and in particular the diameter of the aromatic units, with their aptitude to reproduce the spectral characteristics of interstellar carbonaceous dust. (author) [fr

  5. A randomized trial to determine the impact on compliance of a psychophysical peripheral cue based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

    Horton, Rachael Jane; Minniti, Antoinette; Mireylees, Stewart; McEntegart, Damian

    2008-11-01

    Non-compliance in clinical studies is a significant issue, but causes remain unclear. Utilizing the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion, this study assessed the psychophysical peripheral cue 'Interactive Voice Response System (IVRS) call frequency' on compliance. 71 participants were randomized to once daily (OD), twice daily (BID) or three times daily (TID) call schedules over two weeks. Participants completed 30-item cognitive function tests at each call. Compliance was defined as proportion of expected calls within a narrow window (+/- 30 min around scheduled time), and within a relaxed window (-30 min to +4 h). Data were analyzed by ANOVA and pairwise comparisons adjusted by the Bonferroni correction. There was a relationship between call frequency and compliance. Bonferroni adjusted pairwise comparisons showed significantly higher compliance (p=0.03) for the BID (51.0%) than TID (30.3%) for the narrow window; for the extended window, compliance was higher (p=0.04) with OD (59.5%), than TID (38.4%). The IVRS psychophysical peripheral cue call frequency supported the ELM as a route to persuasion. The results also support OD strategy for optimal compliance. Models suggest specific indicators to enhance compliance with medication dosing and electronic patient diaries to improve health outcomes and data integrity respectively.

  6. Impact of Animated Spokes-Characters in Print Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Advertising: An Elaboration Likelihood Model Approach.

    Bhutada, Nilesh S; Rollins, Brent L; Perri, Matthew

    2017-04-01

    A randomized, posttest-only online survey study of adult U.S. consumers determined the advertising effectiveness (attitude toward ad, brand, company, spokes-characters, attention paid to the ad, drug inquiry intention, and perceived product risk) of animated spokes-characters in print direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising of prescription drugs and the moderating effects of consumers' involvement. Consumers' responses (n = 490) were recorded for animated versus nonanimated (human) spokes-characters in a fictitious DTC ad. Guided by the elaboration likelihood model, data were analyzed using a 2 (spokes-character type: animated/human) × 2 (involvement: high/low) factorial multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA). The MANCOVA indicated significant main effects of spokes-character type and involvement on the dependent variables after controlling for covariate effects. Of the several ad effectiveness variables, consumers only differed on their attitude toward the spokes-characters between the two spokes-character types (specifically, more favorable attitudes toward the human spokes-character). Apart from perceived product risk, high-involvement consumers reacted more favorably to the remaining ad effectiveness variables compared to the low-involvement consumers, and exhibited significantly stronger drug inquiry intentions during their next doctor visit. Further, the moderating effect of consumers' involvement was not observed (nonsignificant interaction effect between spokes-character type and involvement).

  7. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  8. Elaboration of a velocity model of the Bogota basin (Colombia) based on microtremors arrays measurements, gravity data, and geological information

    Pulido Hernandez, N. E.; Senna, S.; Garcia, H. Mr; Montejo, S.; Reyes, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Bogotá, a megacity with almost 8 million inhabitants is prone to a significant earthquake hazard due to nearby active faults as well as subduction megathrust earthquakes. The city has been severely affected by many historical earthquakes in the last 500 years, reaching MM intensities of 8 or more in Bogotá. The city is also located at a large lacustrine basin composed of extremely soft soils which may strongly amplify the ground shaking from earthquakes. The basin extends approximately 40 km from North to South, is bounded by the Andes range to the East and South, and sharply deepens towards the West of Bogotá. The city has been the subject of multiple microzonations studies which have contributed to gain a good knowledge on the geotechnical zonation of the city and tectonic setting of the region. To improve our knowledge on the seismic risk of the city as one of the topics, we started a 5 years project sponsored by SATREPS (a joint program of JICA and JST), entitled "Application of state of the art technologies to strengthen research and response to seismic, volcanic and tsunami events and enhance risk management in Colombia (2015-2019)". In this paper we will show our results for the elaboration of a velocity model of the city. To construct a velocity model of the basin we conducted multi-sized microtremors arrays measurements (radius from 60 cm up to 1000 m) at 41 sites within the city. We calculated dispersion curves and inferred velocity profiles at all the sites. We combine these results with gravity measurements as well as geological information to obtain the initial velocity model of the basin. Ackowledgments This research is funded by SATREPS (a joint program of JICA and JST).

  9. Diffusion-bonded 16MND5-Inconel 690-316LN junction: elaboration and process residual stresses modeling

    Martinez, Michael

    1999-01-01

    The objective of this research thesis is, on the one hand, to elaborate and to characterise a bonded junction of 16MND5 and 316LN steels, and, on the other hand, to develop a simulation tool for the prediction of microstructures after bonding, as well as residual stresses related to this process. The author first reports the study of the use of diffusion bonding by hot isostatic pressing (HIP diffusion bonding) for the bonding of 16MND5 (steel used in French PWR vessel) and 316LN (austenitic stainless steel used in piping), in order to obtain junctions adapted to a use within PWRs. In this case, the use of an Inconel insert material appeared to be necessary to avoid stainless steel carburization. Thus, inserts in Inconel 600 and 690 have been tested. The objective has then been to develop a realistic calculation of residual stresses in this assembly. These stresses are stimulated by quenching. The author notably studied the simulation of temperature dependent phase transformations, and stress induced phase transformations. An existing model is validated and applied to HIP and quenching cycles. The last part reports the calculation of residual stresses by simulation of the mechanical response of the three-component material cooled from 900 C to room temperature and thus submitted to a loading of thermal origin (dilatation) and metallurgical origin (phase transformations in the 16MND5). The effect of carbon diffusion on mechanical properties has also been taken into account. The author discusses problems faced by existing models, and explains the choice of conventional macro-mechanical models. The three materials are supposed to have a plastic-viscoplastic behaviour with isotropic and kinematic strain hardening, and this behaviour is identified between 20 and 900 C [fr

  10. An elaborated feeding cycle model for reductions in vectorial capacity of night-biting mosquitoes by insecticide-treated nets.

    Le Menach, Arnaud; Takala, Shannon; McKenzie, F Ellis; Perisse, Andre; Harris, Anthony; Flahault, Antoine; Smith, David L

    2007-01-25

    Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) are an important tool for malaria control. ITNs are effective because they work on several parts of the mosquito feeding cycle, including both adult killing and repelling effects. Using an elaborated description of the classic feeding cycle model, simple formulas have been derived to describe how ITNs change mosquito behaviour and the intensity of malaria transmission, as summarized by vectorial capacity and EIR. The predicted changes are illustrated as a function of the frequency of ITN use for four different vector populations using parameter estimates from the literature. The model demonstrates that ITNs simultaneously reduce mosquitoes' lifespans, lengthen the feeding cycle, and by discouraging human biting divert more bites onto non-human hosts. ITNs can substantially reduce vectorial capacity through small changes to all of these quantities. The total reductions in vectorial capacity differ, moreover, depending on baseline behavior in the absence of ITNs. Reductions in lifespan and vectorial capacity are strongest for vector species with high baseline survival. Anthropophilic and zoophilic species are affected differently by ITNs; the feeding cycle is lengthened more for anthrophilic species, and the proportion of bites that are diverted onto non-human hosts is higher for zoophilic species. This model suggests that the efficacy of ITNs should be measured as a total reduction in transmission intensity, and that the quantitative effects will differ by species and by transmission intensity. At very high rates of ITN use, ITNs can generate large reductions in transmission intensity that could provide very large reductions in transmission intensity, and effective malaria control in some areas, especially when used in combination with other control measures. At high EIR, ITNs will probably not substantially reduce the parasite rate, but when transmission intensity is low, reductions in vectorial capacity combine with reductions in

  11. Elaboration of Avogadro law

    Luk'yanov, A.T.

    1999-01-01

    In the report on the base of conducted experiments the conclusion about necessity of Avogadro law elaboration is made. It is suggested to add to existing formulation of the law 'In equal volumes of gases at similar pressure and temperature there are equal molecules number' - the elaboration 'and at same spectral content of heat sources'

  12. Global scale groundwater flow model

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  13. Elaboration of the Thermodynamic Model of Refining the Converter Bath when Blowing through Three-Tier Oxygen Lance

    Anatoliy G. Chernyatevich

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background. In modern conditions, the BOP-process is the main method of mass use steel product production. At the same time, due to the shortage of high-quality charge materials, resource and energy-saving technologies are particularly relevant. To optimize the BOP-process under modern conditions, it is promising to use improved oxygen lances for top blowing in comparison with known designs. Objective. An important stage in the development of advanced steel production technologies is obtaining information on the thermodynamic model of blowing a converter bath through a three-tier lance with the elaboration of the regularities of oxidation processes within the reaction zone of a 160-ton industrial converter. Methods. The analysis that was carried out has a theoretical nature and is based on the definition of the influence of temperature and pressure on the regularities of oxidation processes within the reaction zones formed when oxygen jets are introduced into the volume of a metal bath, foamed slag-metallic emulsion and waste gases in the working space of the converter. As a thermodynamic parameter, the Gibbs energy was used to estimate the probability of chemical reactions. The pressure effect on the oxidation processes in the converter bath was evaluated in accordance with the Van’t Hoff formula. Results. The thermodynamic features of oxidation processes in the 160-ton BOF bath using a three-tier lance are presented. Primary reaction zone is characterized by the occurrence of oxidation of manganese, silicon, carbon, and iron by gaseous oxygen. In the secondary reaction zone there are chemical reactions of the oxidation of silicon and carbon dissolved in the metal by oxygen, as well as the reduction of iron oxide by carbon. The presence or absence of a slag phase on the melt surface practically does not affect the occurrence probability of chemical transformations within the boundary of primary and secondary reaction zones. The additional

  14. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  15. Takaful Models and Global Practices

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    There is a global interest in Islamic finance in general and Takāful in particular. The main feature that differentiates Takāful services from conventional ones is Sharī‟ah compliance nature of these services. Investors are taking keen interest in this potential market as Muslims constitute about one fourth of the world population (Muslim population, 2006). To streamline operations of a Takāful company, management and Sharī‟ah experts have developed different operational models for Takāful bu...

  16. Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

    Anton, J. M.; Grau, J. B.; Tarquis, A. M.; Andina, D.; Cisneros, J. M.

    2012-04-01

    There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such "Climate change" is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China …, and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical

  17. Task interdependence as enabler in discerned team performance episodes effecting innovative outcomes in partially distributed global teams : a categorisation-elaboration perspective

    Ryser, Thomas (Dr. phil.)

    2016-01-01

    From an early understanding of organisational theorist (Bartlett & Ghosal, 1989; 1990), the function of global teams in transnational organisations has been conceptualised as the transformation of different embedded cultural practices for the development of a global strategy, products and services. Simultaneously, in the field, from the beginning of the 1990ies to the edge of the new millennium neo-liberal political developments enforced a free flow of capital on a global level (cf. Turner, 2...

  18. PENGEMBANGAN SOFTSKILL DAN HASIL BELAJAR KIMIA DASAR DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL PEMBELAJARAN 5-E (ENGAGEMENT, EXPLORATION, EXPLANATION, ELABORATION, EVALUATION

    Samuel Budi WK,

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui peningkatan hasil belajar kimia dan Soft skill mahasiswa dengan menggunakan strategi pembelajaran 5-E((Engagement, Exploration, Explanation, Elaboration, Evaluation. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian pengembangan yang terdiri dari tiga tahap. Tiap tahap terdiri dari perencanaan, pelaksanaan, pengamatan, dan refleksi. Subyek penelitian ini adalah mahasiswa Jurusan Pendidikan Kimia UNNES. Fokus yang diteliti dalam penelitian ini adalah hasil belajar dan pengembangan soft skill mahasiswa. Data yang diperoleh kemudian dianalisis dengan menggunakan metode deskriptif untuk mengetahui peningkatan hasil belajar dan pengembangan soft skill mahasiswa. Hasil belajar mahasiswa jurusan Kimia UNNES meningkat. Rerata hasil belajar tahap I adalah 64,62, tahap II adalah 75,85, dan pada tahap III adalah 79,77. Hasil rerata soft skill mahasiswa yang memenuhi kriteria tinggi dan sangat tinggi meningkat dari tahap 1 (77%, tahap 2 (80% dan tahap 3 (92%.

  19. Modeling of global biomass policies

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  20. Modeling of global biomass policies

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  1. [Effects of attitude formation, persuasive message, and source expertise on attitude change: an examination based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model and the Attitude Formation Theory].

    Nakamura, M; Saito, K; Wakabayashi, M

    1990-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate how attitude change is generated by the recipient's degree of attitude formation, evaluative-emotional elements contained in the persuasive messages, and source expertise as a peripheral cue in the persuasion context. Hypotheses based on the Attitude Formation Theory of Mizuhara (1982) and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Petty and Cacioppo (1981, 1986) were examined. Eighty undergraduate students served as subjects in the experiment, the first stage of which involving manipulating the degree of attitude formation with respect to nuclear power development. Then, the experimenter presented persuasive messages with varying combinations of evaluative-emotional elements from a source with either high or low expertise on the subject. Results revealed a significant interaction effect on attitude change among attitude formation, persuasive message and the expertise of the message source. That is, high attitude formation subjects resisted evaluative-emotional persuasion from the high expertise source while low attitude formation subjects changed their attitude when exposed to the same persuasive message from a low expertise source. Results exceeded initial predictions based on the Attitude Formation Theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

  2. Model of global evaluation for energetic resources; Modelo de avaliacao global de recursos energeticos

    Fujii, Ricardo Junqueira; Udaeta, Miguel Edgar Morales; Galvao, Luiz Claudio Ribeiro [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Energia e Automacao Eletricas. Grupo de Energia]. E-mail: ricardo_fujii@pea.usp.br; daeta@pea.usp.br; lcgalvao@pea.usp.br

    2006-07-01

    The traditional energy planning usually takes into account the technical economical costs, considered alongside environmental and a few political restraints; however, there is a lack of methods to evenly assess environmental, economical, social and political costs. This work tries to change such scenario by elaborating a model to characterize an energy resource in all four dimensions - environmental, political, social and economical - in an integrated view. The model aims at two objectives: provide a method to assess the global cost of the energy resource and estimate its potential considering the limitations provided by these dimensions. To minimize the complexity of the integration process, the model strongly recommends the use of the Full Cost Accounting - FCA - method to assess the costs and benefits from any given resource. The FCA allows considering quantitative and qualitative costs, reducing the need of quantitative data, which are limited in some cases. The model has been applied in the characterization of the region of Aracatuba, located in the west part of the state of Sao Paulo - Brazil. The results showed that the potential of renewable sources are promising, especially when the global costs are considered. Some resources, in spite of being economically attractive, don't provide an acceptable global cost. It became clear that the model is a valuable tool when the conventional tools fail to address many issues, especially the need of an integrated view on the planning process; the results from this model can be applied in a portfolio selection method to evaluate the best options for a power system expansion. It has to be noticed that the usefulness of this model can be increased when adopted with a method to analyze demand side management measures, thus offering a complete set of possible choices of energy options for the decision maker. (author)

  3. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  4. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  5. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

  6. Assessing sediment hazard through a weight of evidence approach with bioindicator organisms: a practical model to elaborate data from sediment chemistry, bioavailability, biomarkers and ecotoxicological bioassays.

    Piva, Francesco; Ciaprini, Francesco; Onorati, Fulvio; Benedetti, Maura; Fattorini, Daniele; Ausili, Antonella; Regoli, Francesco

    2011-04-01

    Quality assessments are crucial to all activities related to removal and management of sediments. Following a multidisciplinary, weight of evidence approach, a new model is presented here for comprehensive assessment of hazards associated to polluted sediments. The lines of evidence considered were sediment chemistry, assessment of bioavailability, sub-lethal effects on biomarkers, and ecotoxicological bioassays. A conceptual and software-assisted model was developed with logical flow-charts elaborating results from each line of evidence on the basis of several chemical and biological parameters, normative guidelines or scientific evidence; the data are thus summarized into four specific synthetic indices, before their integration into an overall sediment hazard evaluation. This model was validated using European eels (Anguilla anguilla) as the bioindicator species, exposed under laboratory conditions to sediments from an industrial site, and caged under field conditions in two harbour areas. The concentrations of aliphatic hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and trace metals were much higher in the industrial compared to harbour sediments, and accordingly the bioaccumulation in liver and gills of exposed eels showed marked differences between conditions seen. Among biomarkers, significant variations were observed for cytochrome P450-related responses, oxidative stress biomarkers, lysosomal stability and genotoxic effects; the overall elaboration of these data, as those of standard ecotoxicological bioassays with bacteria, algae and copepods, confirmed a higher level of biological hazard for industrial sediments. Based on comparisons with expert judgment, the model presented efficiently discriminates between the various conditions, both as individual modules and as an integrated final evaluation, and it appears to be a powerful tool to support more complex processes of environmental risk assessment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    Böhme, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  8. A Unifying Conceptual Model of Entrepreneurial Management - A Discussion and Elaboration of Stevenson's Understanding of Entrepreneurial Management

    Senderovitz, Martin

    This article offers a systematic analysis and synthesis of the area of entrepreneurial management. Through a presentation of two main perspectives on entrepreneurial management and a newly developed unifying conceptual entrepreneurial management model, the paper discusses a number of theoretical...

  9. Modelo de Cuidado: ¿Qué es y como elaborarlo? Model of care: What is it? And how do you elaborate it?

    Patricia Kuerten Rocha

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available En el presente artículo se realiza una reflexión teórica sobre el significado del modelo de cuidado de enfermería, además de ofrecer elementos para su elaboración. Existe una diversidad de terminologías sobre lo que es modelo de cuidado y sus elementos, tales como: modelo de cuidado, marco/sistema/modelo conceptual, marco de referencia, marco teórico, metodología y método. En este estudio son presentadas las etapas que sistematizan el desarrollo de un modelo de cuidado, a saber: planeamiento, desarrollo, implementación y evaluación. Por ser dinámica, la elaboración de un modelo de cuidado necesita de la interacción directa entre el investigador y el sujeto. La lógica inductiva-deductiva-inductiva le permite al investigador un ir y venir del mundo de la práctica al mundo abstracto reflexivo. Un modelo de cuidado nos remite a la construcción de un conocimiento que favorece un cuidar diferenciado y específico, al mismo tiempo que estimula el conocimiento y el desarrollo de la Enfermería. De esa manera, los modelos de cuidado engloban un conjunto de conocimientos que califican y perfeccionan la praxis de la Enfermería.This article develops a theory about the nursing care model’s meaning and it also offers subsidies for its elaboration. There is a diversity of terminologies on what care model and their components are, like the following ones: care model, mark, system, conceptual model, referential mark, theoretical mark, methodology and method. The stages that systematize the development of a care model are the following: planning, development, implementation and evaluation. The elaboration of a care model is dynamic and it needs the direct interaction between the researcher and the subject. The inductive-deductive-inductive logic allows the researcher to move from the practice world to the reflexive abstract one. A care model implies the construction of knowledge that favors differentiated and specific care and, at the same

  10. Re-framing Inclusive Education Through the Capability Approach: An Elaboration of the Model of Relational Inclusion

    Maryam Dalkilic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Scholars have called for the articulation of new frameworks in special education that are responsive to culture and context and that address the limitations of medical and social models of disability. In this article, we advance a theoretical and practical framework for inclusive education based on the integration of a model of relational inclusion with Amartya Sen’s (1985 Capability Approach. This integrated framework engages children, educators, and families in principled practices that acknowledge differences, rather than deficits, and enable attention to enhancing the capabilities of children with disabilities in inclusive educational environments. Implications include the development of policy that clarifies the process required to negotiate capabilities and valued functionings and the types of resources required to permit children, educators, and families to create relationally inclusive environments.

  11. Modelling and numerical simulation of Supercritical CO2 debinding of Inconel 718 components elaborated by Metal Injection Molding

    Aboubakry Agne

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A debinding step using the supercritical state of a fluid has been increasingly investigated for extracting organic binders from components obtained by metal-injection molding. It consists of placing the component in an enclosure subjected to pressure and temperatures higher than the critical point to perform polymer extraction of the Metal-injection molding (MIM component. It is an alternative to conventional solvent debinding. The topic of this study is to model and simulate the supercritical debinding stage to elucidate the mechanism of polymer degradation and stabilization with a three-dimensional model. Modelling this extraction process would optimize the process on an industrial scale. It can be physically described by Fick’s law of diffusion. The model’s main parameter is the diffusion coefficient, which is identified by using linear regression based on the least-squares method. In the model, an effective length scale is specially developed to take into account the diffusion in all directions. The tests were performed for extracting polyethylene glycol, an organic additive, using supercritical CO2 in injected components. The feedstock is composed of polypropylene, polyethylene glycol, and stearic-acid as binder mixed with Inconel 718 super-alloy powders. The identified parameters were used to calculate the diffusion coefficient and simulate the supercritical debinding step on the Comsol Multiphysics® finite-element software platform to predict the remaining binder. The obtained numerical simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental data. The proposed numerical simulations allow for the determination of the remaining polyethylene glycol (PEG binder distribution with respect to processing parameters for components during the supercritical debinding process at any time. Moreover, this approach can be used in other formulation, powder, and binder systems.

  12. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  13. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  14. ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V002

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the U.S. National...

  15. A Global Stock and Bond Model

    Connor, Gregory

    1996-01-01

    Factor models are now widely used to support asset selection decisions. Global asset allocation, the allocation between stocks versus bonds and among nations, usually relies instead on correlation analysis of international equity and bond indexes. It would be preferable to have a single integrated framework for both asset selection and asset allocation. This framework would require a factor model applicable at an asset or country level, as well as at a global level,...

  16. ELABORATION OF THE 3D MODEL AND SURVEY OF THE POWER LINES USING DATA FROM AIRBORNE LASER SCANNING

    Bogusława Kwoczyńska

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the methods of obtaining highly accurate and current spatial data about the terrain, as well as objects situated on it, is laser scanning. LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging is among the most modern, dynamically developing technologies and reveals in surveying new capabilities that have been unachievable in a traditional way so far. The aim of the publication is to show the possibilities of using data from airborne laser scanning to perform the survey and visualization of the energy network, and also identification of hazards which the present network constitutes for the immediate environment using the TerraSolid software package. The survey was conducted for two independent sections of the power line, on the basis of two different clouds of points obtained from the airborne laser scanning. The first one had a density of 16 points/m2, while the other 22 pts/m2. The project was created in an environment of MicroStation V8i software using special overlays – TerraScan and TerraModeler of Finnish TerraSolid Company. The use of the test clouds of different densities was intended to indicate an optimal density of the cloud of points, which allows carrying out a survey and visualization of the energy network based on data derived from airborne laser scanning. The publication presents on particular examples the procedure of vectorization and visualization of the power line and detection of objects within a dangerous distance from it. The possibility of using applied LIDAR data, meeting the industry requirements, to the survey of power lines has been also confirmed.

  17. A global central banker competency model

    David W. Brits

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model. Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence. Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management. Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other. Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered. Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively. Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

  18. Local scale atmospheric diffusion at a coastal site in the presence of breeze effect (phase III: data elaboration and model development). Volume 1

    Cagnetti, P.; Ferrara, V.; Pellegrini, A.

    1985-01-01

    The aim of this contract is the characterization, from the thermal and anemological point of view, of the lower layers of the atmosphere at a coastal site, affected by breeze circulation. Data are utilized to set up diffusion models for accidental releases of airborne materials, both of short and prolonged duration. Five inland meteorological campaigns, starting from Jan. 82 (Jan., Apr., Jul., Oct. 1982, Jan. 1983), have been carried out; an appropriate extension of the contract allowed the execution of two more campaigns in the open sea (Apr., Jul. 1983), utilizing the oceanographic ship ''Bannock'' kindly supplied by CNR. The analysis of the data showed the development of a well defined IBL during on-shore flow only in Spring and Summer, while an inversion layer was detectable aloft independently of the season (provided that an anticyclonic situation was present). According to those relevant features a simple diffusion model has been developed for short duration releases at local scale. Finally, the analysis and elaboration of the data, collected on site by a meteorological automatic station, allowed the extension of the model to prolonged releases

  19. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  20. Global-warming forecasting models

    Moeller, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    In spite of an annual man-made quantity of about 20 billion tons, carbon dioxide has remained a trace gas in the atmosphere (350 ppm at present). The reliability of model calculations which forecast temperatures is dicussed in view of the world-wide increase in carbon dioxides. Computer simulations reveal a general, serious threat to the future of mankind. (DG) [de

  1. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  2. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  3. Contribution to the modeling of elaborate cement barriers behaviour with respect to radioelements migration by the study of ancient analogue materials

    Rougeau, P.

    1994-01-01

    The durability of cement matrices and their capacity of radioelements retention are determining factors for their use as elaborate barriers in radioactive waste disposal facilities. This study focusses on the observation of concretes in real situation of alteration or in contact with radioelements for predictive modelling. Two materials have been selected. One is a concrete from a gallery wall of the Margnac uranium mine (Cogema, France) submitted to uranium-rich infiltration waters. The alteration concentrates in two characteristic successive zones: the first is composed of calcium depleted and aluminum enriched calcite and calcium hydro-silicates and the second, between the first zone and the sound matrix, is characterized by a self-filling in process due to massive ettringite precipitation induced by sulfate ions transport. Uranium migration depends closely on the fissures and porosity of the cement matrix. The second series of samples correspond to 2000 years old archaeological cements from Pompei (Italy) made of volcanic ashes and carrying uranium traces. These samples were submitted to burying and alteration is characterized by a carbonation of the cement matrix. The mineralogy is closed to the one defined in the first alteration zone of the uranium mine concrete. Both studies demonstrate that the presence of carbonate ions in the percolation water plays a major role in the alteration process. Sulfate reactions must be considered too and tend to diminish the materials porosity and to increase the delay in radionuclides migration processes. (J.S.). 131 refs., 92 figs., 55 tabs., 51 photos., 15 appends

  4. New global ICT-based business models

    The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative ...... The NEWGIBM Cases Show? The Strategy Concept in Light of the Increased Importance of Innovative Business Models Successful Implementation of Global BM Innovation Globalisation Of ICT Based Business Models: Today And In 2020......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative....... The NEWGIBM book serves as a part of the final evaluation and documentation of the NEWGIBM project and is supported by results from the following projects: M-commerce, Global Innovation, Global Ebusiness & M-commerce, The Blue Ocean project, International Center for Innovation and Women in Business, NEFFICS...

  5. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  6. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  7. Mechanisms of scale formation and carbon dioxide partial pressure influence. Part I. Elaboration of an experimental method and a scaling model.

    Gal, Jean-Yves; Fovet, Yannick; Gache, Nathalie

    2002-02-01

    Scale formation in industrial or domestic installations is still an important economic problem. The existence of a metastable domain for calcium carbonate supersaturated solutions and its breakdown are observed under conditions rarely well defined. In most cases it is the pH rise caused by the carbon dioxide loss that involves calcium carbonate precipitation. Before studying this problem, we suggest in this first part, a new model for the evolution of the calcocarbonic system that takes into account the hydrated forms of CaCO3: CaCO3 amorphous, CaCO3 x 6H2O (ikaite) and CaCO3 x H2O (monohydrate). According to this model, the precipitation of any one of these hydrated forms could be responsible for the breakdown of the metastable state. After this first step, the solids evolve into dehydrated forms. At first, the metastable domain spread of the calcium carbonate supersaturated solutions was studied by the elaboration of computer programs in which the formation of CaCO3(0)(aq) ion pairs was taken into account. These ion pairs are supposed to evolve through dehydration to form the various calcium carbonate solid form precursors. This thermodynamic study was then compared to the experimental methods of the critical pH. Here the pH rise was caused by adding sodium hydroxide under different conditions for sodium hydroxide addition speed, agitation mode and ageing of solutions. For the highest speed of sodium hydroxide addition, the CaCO3 ionic product reached the value of the amorphous calcium carbonate solubility product, and the reaction of the amorphous calcium carbonate precipitation was of the homogenous type. Decreasing the reagent's addition speed caused an extension of the titration time. Then, the breakdown of the metastable state was obtained with the CaCO3 x H2O heterogeneous precipitation. This clearly illustrates the probable ageing of the precursors of the solid states that are considered in this model.

  8. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  9. Global thermal models of the lithosphere

    Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

    2017-12-01

    Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations

  10. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  11. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  12. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  13. GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse

    Kühn, André; Novinsky, Patrick; Schade, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the mo...

  14. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  15. A model for global cycling of tritium

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper the authors present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the southern hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Names TRICYCLE (for TRItium CYCLE) the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemispheric stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitude zones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if it is assumed that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The model's latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a uniformly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the NCRP model's corresponding prediction by a factor of three

  16. A model for global cycling of tritium

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper, we present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the soutehrn hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Named TRICYCLE for Tritium CYCLE, the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemisphereic stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitudezones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if we assume that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The models latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a unfiormaly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the corresponding prediction by the NCRP model by about a factor of 3. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  17. Focusing on media body ideal images triggers food intake among restrained eaters: a test of restraint theory and the elaboration likelihood model.

    Boyce, Jessica A; Kuijer, Roeline G

    2014-04-01

    Although research consistently shows that images of thin women in the media (media body ideals) affect women negatively (e.g., increased weight dissatisfaction and food intake), this effect is less clear among restrained eaters. The majority of experiments demonstrate that restrained eaters - identified with the Restraint Scale - consume more food than do other participants after viewing media body ideal images; whereas a minority of experiments suggest that such images trigger restrained eaters' dietary restraint. Weight satisfaction and mood results are just as variable. One reason for these inconsistent results might be that different methods of image exposure (e.g., slideshow vs. film) afford varying levels of attention. Therefore, we manipulated attention levels and measured participants' weight satisfaction and food intake. We based our hypotheses on the elaboration likelihood model and on restraint theory. We hypothesised that advertent (i.e., processing the images via central routes of persuasion) and inadvertent (i.e., processing the images via peripheral routes of persuasion) exposure would trigger differing degrees of weight dissatisfaction and dietary disinhibition among restrained eaters (cf. restraint theory). Participants (N = 174) were assigned to one of four conditions: advertent or inadvertent exposure to media or control images. The dependent variables were measured in a supposedly unrelated study. Although restrained eaters' weight satisfaction was not significantly affected by either media exposure condition, advertent (but not inadvertent) media exposure triggered restrained eaters' eating. These results suggest that teaching restrained eaters how to pay less attention to media body ideal images might be an effective strategy in media-literary interventions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Global nuclear material flow/control model

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.S.; Fasel, P.K.; Riese, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of an international regime for nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool which treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. The prototype model developed visually represents the fundamental data, information, and capabilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle in a framework supportive of national or an international perspective. This includes an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, facility specific geographic identification, and the capability to estimate resource requirements for the management and control of nuclear material. The model establishes the foundation for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material and supports the development of other pertinent algorithmic capabilities necessary to undertake further global nuclear material related studies

  19. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab

    2014-01-01

    Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382

  20. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Hina Anwar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity.

  1. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  2. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  3. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  4. Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

    Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

    2017-05-01

    The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

  5. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  6. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  7. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  8. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  9. A satellite-based global landslide model

    A. Farahmand

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are devastating phenomena that cause huge damage around the world. This paper presents a quasi-global landslide model derived using satellite precipitation data, land-use land cover maps, and 250 m topography information. This suggested landslide model is based on the Support Vector Machines (SVM, a machine learning algorithm. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC landslide inventory data is used as observations and reference data. In all, 70% of the data are used for model development and training, whereas 30% are used for validation and verification. The results of 100 random subsamples of available landslide observations revealed that the suggested landslide model can predict historical landslides reliably. The average error of 100 iterations of landslide prediction is estimated to be approximately 7%, while approximately 2% false landslide events are observed.

  10. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  11. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  12. Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

    Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

    2018-01-01

    Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

  13. Global and local level density models

    Koning, A.J.; Hilaire, S.; Goriely, S.

    2008-01-01

    Four different level density models, three phenomenological and one microscopic, are consistently parameterized using the same set of experimental observables. For each of the phenomenological models, the Constant Temperature Model, the Back-shifted Fermi gas Model and the Generalized Superfluid Model, a version without and with explicit collective enhancement is considered. Moreover, a recently published microscopic combinatorial model is compared with the phenomenological approaches and with the same set of experimental data. For each nuclide for which sufficient experimental data exists, a local level density parameterization is constructed for each model. Next, these local models have helped to construct global level density prescriptions, to be used for cases for which no experimental data exists. Altogether, this yields a collection of level density formulae and parameters that can be used with confidence in nuclear model calculations. To demonstrate this, a large-scale validation with experimental discrete level schemes and experimental cross sections and neutron emission spectra for various different reaction channels has been performed

  14. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  15. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    Bozdağ, Ebru

    2016-09-23

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named \\'Titan\\', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used \\'crustal corrections\\'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the

  16. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    ") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

  17. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

  18. Conflict Elaboration and Cognitive Outcomes

    Buchs, Céline; Butera, Fabrizio; Mugny, Gabriel; Darnon, Céline

    2004-01-01

    This article presents advice for teachers about using sociocognitive conflicts to promote academic learning. In doing so, the conditions under which sociocognitive conflicts are constructive or disruptive are examined and the relevant research is reviewed on social development, cooperative learning, and social influence. Two types of conflict elaboration—epistemic and relational—are identified. Epistemic elaborations focus students on task resolution leading to positive cognitive outcomes, an...

  19. Modeling global scene factors in attention

    Torralba, Antonio

    2003-07-01

    Models of visual attention have focused predominantly on bottom-up approaches that ignored structured contextual and scene information. I propose a model of contextual cueing for attention guidance based on the global scene configuration. It is shown that the statistics of low-level features across the whole image can be used to prime the presence or absence of objects in the scene and to predict their location, scale, and appearance before exploring the image. In this scheme, visual context information can become available early in the visual processing chain, which allows modulation of the saliency of image regions and provides an efficient shortcut for object detection and recognition. 2003 Optical Society of America

  20. Global embedding of fibre inflation models

    Cicoli, Michele [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Bologna,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Bologna,viale Berti Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy); Muia, Francesco [Rudolf Peierls Centre for Theoretical Physics, University of Oxford,1 Keble Rd., Oxford OX1 3NP (United Kingdom); Shukla, Pramod [Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy)

    2016-11-30

    We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with h{sup 1,1}=3 which are K3 fibrations over a ℙ{sup 1} base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

  1. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  2. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  3. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  4. Evaluation of global solar radiation models for Shanghai, China

    Yao, Wanxiang; Li, Zhengrong; Wang, Yuyan; Jiang, Fujian; Hu, Lingzhou

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • 108 existing models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. • Fitting models based on measured data are established according to 42 years data. • All models are compared by recently 10 years meteorological data. • The results show that polynomial models are the most accurate models. - Abstract: In this paper, 89 existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models and 19 existing daily global solar radiation models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. The results show that for existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models, linear models and polynomial models have been able to estimate global solar radiation accurately, and complex equation types cannot obviously improve the precision. Considering direct parameters such as latitude, altitude, solar altitude and sunshine duration can help improve the accuracy of the models, but indirect parameters cannot. For existing daily global solar radiation models, multi-parameter models are more accurate than single-parameter models, polynomial models are more accurate than linear models. Then measured data fitting monthly average daily global solar radiation models (MADGSR models) and daily global solar radiation models (DGSR models) are established according to 42 years meteorological data. Finally, existing models and fitting models based on measured data are comparative analysis by recent 10 years meteorological data, and the results show that polynomial models (MADGSR model 2, DGSR model 2 and Maduekwe model 2) are the most accurate models

  5. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  6. Use of wind data in global modelling

    Pailleux, J.

    1985-01-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing operational global analyses every 6 hours and operational global forecasts every day from the 12Z analysis. How the wind data are used in the ECMWF golbal analysis is described. For each current wind observing system, its ability to provide initial conditions for the forecast model is discussed as well as its weaknesses. An assessment of the impact of each individual system on the quality of the analysis and the forecast is given each time it is possible. Sometimes the deficiencies which are pointed out are related not only to the observing system itself but also to the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme; then some improvements are generally possible through ad hoc modifications of the analysis scheme and especially tunings of the structure functions. Examples are given. The future observing network over the North Atlantic is examined. Several countries, coordinated by WMO, are working to set up an 'Operational WWW System Evaluation' (OWSE), in order to evaluate the operational aspects of the deployment of new systems (ASDAR, ASAP). Most of the new systems are expected to be deployed before January 1987, and in order to make the best use of the available resources during the deployment phase, some network studies are carried out at the present time, by using simulated data for ASDAR and ASAP systems. They are summarized.

  7. 2-D model of global aerosol transport

    Rehkopf, J; Newiger, M; Grassl, H

    1984-01-01

    The distribution of aerosol particles in the troposphere is described. Starting with long term mean seasonal flow and diffusivities as well as temperature, cloud distribution (six cloud classes), relative humidity and OH radical concentration, the steady state concentration of aerosol particles and SO/sub 2/ are calculated in a two-dimensional global (height and latitude) model. The following sources and sinks for particles are handled: direct emission, gas-to-particle conversion from SO/sub 2/, coagulation, rainout, washout, gravitational settling, and dry deposition. The sinks considered for sulphur emissions are dry deposition, washout, rainout, gasphase oxidation, and aqueous phase oxidation. Model tests with the water vapour cycle show a good agreement between measured and calculated zonal mean precipitation distribution. The steady state concentration distribution for natural emissions reached after 10 weeks model time, may be described by a mean exponent ..cap alpha.. = 3.2 near the surface assuming a modified Junge distribution and an increased value, ..cap alpha.. = 3.7, for the combined natural and man-made emission. The maximum ground level concentrations are 2000 and 10,000 particules cm/sup -3/ for natural and natural plus man-made emissions, respectively. The resulting distribution of sulphur dioxide agrees satisfactorily with measurements given by several authors. 37 references, 4 figures.

  8. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  9. CONSORT 2010 explanation and elaboration

    Moher, David; Hopewell, Sally; Schulz, Kenneth F

    2012-01-01

    improves the wording and clarity of the previous checklist and incorporates recommendations related to topics that have only recently received recognition, such as selective outcome reporting bias. This explanatory and elaboration document-intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination...... of the CONSORT statement-has also been extensively revised. It presents the meaning and rationale for each new and updated checklist item providing examples of good reporting and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies. Several examples of flow diagrams are included. The CONSORT 2010 Statement...

  10. BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2011-01-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  11. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  12. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  13. Elaboration of invariant safety properties from fault-tree analysis

    Henry , Sébastien; Faure , Jean-Marc

    2003-01-01

    International audience; Formal verification of PLC programs using model-checking requires to elaborate previously temporal logic formulae which state in a formal way the properties that must be checked. Unfortunately temporal logic is a formalism totally unknown by automation engineers. This explains why PLC programs developers willing to verify the behavior of their programs are unable to use the existing modelchecking tools. Temporal logic formulae elaboration is a too difficult task. In or...

  14. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  15. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Cicoli, Michele; Mayrhofer, Christoph; Valandro, Roberto

    2011-10-01

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r< n D-term conditions on a set of n intersecting divisors. The remaining (n-r) flat directions are fixed by perturbative corrections to the Kaehler potential. We illustrate our general claims in an explicit example. We consider a K3-fibred Calabi-Yau with four Kaehler moduli, that is an hypersurface in a toric ambient space and admits a simple F-theory up-lift. We present explicit choices of brane set-ups and fluxes which lead to three different phenomenological scenarios: the first with GUT-scale strings and TeV-scale SUSY by fine-tuning the background fluxes; the second with an exponentially large value of the volume and TeV-scale SUSY without fine-tuning the background fluxes; and the third with a very anisotropic configuration that leads to TeV-scale strings and two micron-sized extra dimensions. The K3 fibration structure of the Calabi-Yau three-fold is also particularly suitable for cosmological purposes. (orig.)

  16. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Cicoli, Michele [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Mayrhofer, Christoph [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Valandro, Roberto [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2011-10-15

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r

  17. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr

  18. Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESIM)

    Bell, Paul

    2005-01-01

    ... AND S) toolkits into the Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESim) framework to create effective user analysis of candidate communications architectures and technologies...

  19. SEP modeling based on global heliospheric models at the CCMC

    Mays, M. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D.; Bain, H. M.; Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Li, Y.; Lee, K.; Zeitlin, C.; Jian, L. K.; Lee, C. O.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Galvin, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Heliospheric models provide contextual information of conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, and are used as input to SEP models, providing an essential tool for understanding SEP properties. The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL+Cone model provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a spherical shaped hydrodynamic CME can be inserted. ENLIL simulates solar wind parameters and additionally one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. An accurate representation of the background solar wind is necessary for simulating transients. ENLIL simulations also drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al. 2010). The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is in the process of making these SEP models available to the community and offering a system to run SEP models driven by a variety of heliospheric models available at CCMC. SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence of observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. The coupled SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. The coupled ENLIL and SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. In this presentation we demonstrate several case studies of SEP event modeling at different observers based on WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations.

  20. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  1. NASA 3D Models: Global Hawk

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The ability of the Global Hawk air vehicle to autonomously fly long distances and remain aloft for extended periods of time means that measuring, monitoring, and...

  2. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  3. Architecture design in global and model-centric software development

    Heijstek, Werner

    2012-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation describes a series of empirical investigations into representation, dissemination and coordination of software architecture design in the context of global software development. A particular focus is placed on model-centric and model-driven software development.

  4. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  5. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of

  6. Mathematical modeling of pollutant and radionuclide transformation in aquatic ecosystems results of elaboration and verification for the chain of industrial reservoirs on the Techa River

    Smirnov, A.B.; Mokrov, Y.G.; Glagolenko, Y.V.; Drozhko, E.G.; Khodakovsky, I.L.; Leonov, A.V.

    1995-01-01

    The modern radioecological situation around the oldest radiochemical plant, Mayak, in South Ural (Russia) is indicated by the storage of 300 million to tons of low level radioactive waste in the Techa's reservoir chain (TRC). Future approaches for TRC restoration may be evaluated using corresponding mathematical models. The mathematical modeling complex, KASKAD, was developed at Mayak and is intended for reservoir radioecological state forecasting and alternative remediation approaches evaluation. The paper describes this model

  7. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  8. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  9. Boundaries of sustainability in simple and elaborate models of agricultural pest control with a pesticide and a non-toxic refuge.

    Mohammed-Awel, Jemal; Ringland, John; Bantle, John; Festinger, Aaron; Jo, Hee-Joon; Klafehn, Ryan

    2012-01-01

    In two models of pest control using a pesticidal crop along with a non-pesticidal refuge to prevent the development of resistance, we numerically compute the bifurcations that bound the region in parameter space where control is sustainable indefinitely. An exact formula for one of the bifurcation surfaces in one of the models is also found. One model is conceptual and as simple as possible. The other is realistic and very detailed. Despite the great differences in the models, we find the same distinctive bifurcation structure. We focus on the parameters that determine: (i) the restriction of pest exchange between the crop and the refuge, which we call 'screening' the refuge, and (ii) the recessiveness of the resistance trait. The screened refuge technique is seen to work in the models up to quite high values of fitness of resistant heterozygotes, that is, even when resistance is not strongly recessive.

  10. Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

    Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

    2015-07-01

    The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

  11. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  12. Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

    Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

    2012-01-01

    The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

  13. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  14. Elaboration in the area of plasma technologies

    Mirsaidov, U.M.

    2002-01-01

    In the Institute of Chemistry the plasma chemical method of forming of fine-dispersed semi-conductors, magnetic and amorphous powders of boron and aluminium nitride was elaborated, the method of aluminium hydride conversion for the receiving of fine-grained magnetic powders and alloys was elaborated

  15. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Existence of global attractor for the Trojan Y Chromosome model

    Xiaopeng Zhao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the long time behavior of solution for the equation derived by the Trojan Y Chromosome (TYC model with spatial spread. Based on the regularity estimates for the semigroups and the classical existence theorem of global attractors, we prove that this equations possesses a global attractor in $H^k(\\Omega^4$ $(k\\geq 0$ space.

  17. Models for prediction of global solar radiation on horizontal surface ...

    The estimation of global solar radiation continues to play a fundamental role in solar engineering systems and applications. This paper compares various models for estimating the average monthly global solar radiation on horizontal surface for Akure, Nigeria, using solar radiation and sunshine duration data covering years ...

  18. OILMAP: A global approach to spill modeling

    Spaulding, M.L.; Howlett, E.; Anderson, E.; Jayko, K.

    1992-01-01

    OILMAP is an oil spill model system suitable for use in both rapid response mode and long-range contingency planning. It was developed for a personal computer and employs full-color graphics to enter data, set up spill scenarios, and view model predictions. The major components of OILMAP include environmental data entry and viewing capabilities, the oil spill models, and model prediction display capabilities. Graphic routines are provided for entering wind data, currents, and any type of geographically referenced data. Several modes of the spill model are available. The surface trajectory mode is intended for quick spill response. The weathering model includes the spreading, evaporation, entrainment, emulsification, and shoreline interaction of oil. The stochastic and receptor models simulate a large number of trajectories from a single site for generating probability statistics. Each model and the algorithms they use are described. Several additional capabilities are planned for OILMAP, including simulation of tactical spill response and subsurface oil transport. 8 refs

  19. Improving Reasoning and Recall: The Differential Effects of Elaborative Interrogation and Mnemonic Elaboration.

    Scruggs, Thomas E.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Fifty-three adolescents with learning disabilities or mild mental retardation were taught reasons for dinosaur extinction. Those taught in a mnemonic elaborative interrogation condition recalled more reasons than did students who received direct teaching. Students in elaborative interrogation and mnemonic elaborative interrogation groups recalled…

  20. Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...

    The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model

  1. Modeling the Acceleration of Global Surface Temperture

    Jones, B.

    2017-12-01

    A mathematical projection focusing on the changing rate of acceleration of Global Surface Temperatures. Using historical trajectory and informed expert near-term prediction, it is possible to extend this further forward drawing a reference arc of acceleration. Presented here is an example of this technique based on data found in the Summary of Findings of A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011 and that same team's stated prediction to 2050. With this, we can project a curve showing future acceleration: Decade (midpoint) Change in Global Land Temp Degrees C Known Slope Projected Trend 1755 0.000 1955 0.600 0.0030 2005 1.500 0.0051 2045 3.000 0.0375 2095 5.485 0.0497 2145 8.895 0.0682 2195 13.488 0.0919 Observations: Slopes are getting steeper and doing so faster in an "acceleration of the acceleration" or an "arc of acceleration". This is consistent with the non-linear accelerating feedback loops of global warming. Such projected temperatures threaten human civilization and human life. This `thumbnail' projection is consistent with the other long term predictions based on anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This projection is low when compared to those whose forecasts include greenhouse gases released from thawing permafrost and clathrate hydrates. A reference line: This curve should be considered a point of reference. In the near term and absent significant drawdown of greenhouse gases, my "bet" for this AGU session is that future temperatures will generally be above this reference curve. For example, the decade ending 2020 - more than 1.9C and the decade ending 2030 - more than 2.3C - again measured from the 1750 start point. *Caveat: The long term curve and prediction assumes that mankind does not move quickly away from high cost fossil fuels and does not invent, mobilize and take actions drawing down greenhouse gases. Those seeking a comprehensive action plan are directed to drawdown.org

  2. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)

    2017-11-20

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  3. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  4. Recommendations for the development of cost minimized combinations of renewable energies - elaborated for four types of model communities in North-Rhine Westphalia. 10. technical report

    Mohr, M.; Skiba, M.; Gernhardt, D.; Ziolek, A.; Unger, H.

    1994-07-01

    The Tenth Technical Report of the study 'Analysis of Possibilities of Solar Power Supply and its Development in Nordrhein-Westfalen' contains a catalogue of recommended steps for the introduction of renewable energy systems into the existing energy supply structure in NRW. First, strategies for least cost renewable energy supply systems are developed and applied to modelled municipalities in such a way, that a cost optimized mix of renewable energies, depending on the desired degree of 'renewable coverage', can be given for each model community. Analogous to that, a low cost CO 2 -reduction strategy by an aimed extension of renewable energy systems is calculated and represented. The legal skeleton conditions of the power supply, information and training deficits as well as transmitted behavior patterns, which counteract an integration of renewable energy systems, are discussed in view of 'non economical' obstacles also. A catalogue of measures is presented, which contains informational, organizational and especially administrative aspects, including possibilities for governmental support. These recommendations may be used by those responsible for political decisions, i.e. by municipal planners, local or regional power suppliers and - last but not least - private consumers. (orig.) [de

  5. Knowledge-based support system for requirement elaboration in design

    Furuta, Kazuo; Kondo, Shunsuke

    1994-01-01

    Design requirements are the seeds of every design activity, but elicitation and formalization of them are not easy tasks. This paper proposes a method to support designers in such requirement elaboration process with a computer. In this method the cognitive work space of designers is modeled by abstraction and structural hierarchies, and supporting functions of knowledge-based requirement elaboration, requirement classification and assessment of contentment status of requirements are provided on this framework. A prototype system was developed and tested using fast breeder reactor design. (author)

  6. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

    Varela, M.

    2001-07-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

  7. Global Nonlinear Model Identification with Multivariate Splines

    De Visser, C.C.

    2011-01-01

    At present, model based control systems play an essential role in many aspects of modern society. Application areas of model based control systems range from food processing to medical imaging, and from process control in oil refineries to the flight control systems of modern aircraft. Central to a

  8. Fourier series models through transformation | Omekara | Global ...

    As a result, the square transformation which outperforms the others is adopted. Consequently, each of the multiplicative and additive FSA models fitted to the transformed data are then subjected to a test for white noise based on spectral analysis. The result of this test shows that only the multiplicative model is adequate.

  9. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J.; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. - Highlights: • First global map on insecticide runoff through modelling. • Model predicts upper limit of insecticide exposure when compared to field data. • Water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects. • Insecticide application rate, terrain slope and rainfall main drivers of exposure. - We provide the first global map on insecticide runoff to surface water predicting that water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects

  10. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  11. Globalizing High-Tech Business Models

    Turcan, Romeo V.

    2012-01-01

    resources and behavioral patterns. Two sources could be identified that effect these tensions, namely strategic experimentation and business model experimentation. For example, entrepreneurs are trying to ease the tensions in the organizational gestalt as a result of a change in the business model...... and growth path. To internationalize, international new ventures have to develop a product-led business model as services do not travel. Opting to attract venture capital, entrepreneurs are to deal with dyadic tensions that are the result of differences in entrepreneurs’ and VCs’ goals and measures...

  12. Elaboration in the area of aluminium containing alloys

    Mirsaidov, U.M.

    2002-01-01

    In the Institute of Chemistry was elaborated the experimental-industrial installation and technology of deep aluminium purification by the methods of zone melting and recrystallization. The developed technology let receive the metal of model A5 N A6 N dependence from number of induction zone passage

  13. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  14. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  15. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J

    2006-01-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quant...

  16. Leveraging the Global Health Service Partnership Model for Workforce Development in Global Radiation Oncology

    Omoruyi Credit Irabor

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A major contributor to the disparity in cancer outcome across the globe is the limited health care access in low- and middle-income countries that results from the shortfall in human resources for health (HRH, fomented by the limited training and leadership capacity of low-resource countries. In 2012, Seed Global Health teamed up with the Peace Corps to create the Global Health Service Partnership, an initiative that has introduced a novel model for tackling the HRH crises in developing regions of the world. The Global Health Service Partnership has made global health impacts in leveraging partnerships for HRH development, faculty activities and output, scholarship engagement, adding value to the learning environment, health workforce empowerment, and infrastructure development.

  17. Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

    Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

    2017-12-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  18. Radiative heating in global climate models

    Baer, F.; Arsky, N.; Rocque, K. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

    1996-04-01

    LWR algorithms from various GCMs vary significantly from one another for the same clear sky input data. This variability becomes pronounced when clouds are included. We demonstrate this effect by intercomparing the various models` output using observed data including clouds from ARM/CART data taken in Oklahoma.

  19. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

  20. Global ocean modeling on the Connection Machine

    Smith, R.D.; Dukowicz, J.K.; Malone, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    The authors have developed a version of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean model (Bryan, 1969; Semtner, 1976; Cox, 1984) for massively parallel computers. Such models are three-dimensional, Eulerian models that use latitude and longitude as the horizontal spherical coordinates and fixed depth levels as the vertical coordinate. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, with a turbulent eddy viscosity, and mass continuity equation are solved, subject to the hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximations. The traditional model formulation uses a rigid-lid approximation (vertical velocity = 0 at the ocean surface) to eliminate fast surface waves. These waves would otherwise require that a very short time step be used in numerical simulations, which would greatly increase the computational cost. To solve the equations with the rigid-lid assumption, the equations of motion are split into two parts: a set of twodimensional ''barotropic'' equations describing the vertically-averaged flow, and a set of three-dimensional ''baroclinic'' equations describing temperature, salinity and deviations of the horizontal velocities from the vertically-averaged flow

  1. About the elaboration of pure uranium dicarbide

    Besson, J.; Blum, P.; Guinet, Ph.; Spitz, J.

    1963-01-01

    In order to develop methods for the elaboration of as pure as possible uranium dicarbide, the authors report the study of different elaboration processes based on the reaction between uranium and carbon, or between uranium and hydrocarbon, or between uranium oxide and carbon. They finally choose a method which comprises an arc-induced fusion of a mixture of uranium dioxide and carbon. The fusion process is described. The influence of thermal treatments is discussed as well as the graphite electrode carburization

  2. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Lorz, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    Liu, Jian-Guo

    2011-09-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  5. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling

    O. Dubovik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding aerosol effects on global climate requires knowing the global distribution of tropospheric aerosols. By accounting for aerosol sources, transports, and removal processes, chemical transport models simulate the global aerosol distribution using archived meteorological fields. We develop an algorithm for retrieving global aerosol sources from satellite observations of aerosol distribution by inverting the GOCART aerosol transport model.

    The inversion is based on a generalized, multi-term least-squares-type fitting, allowing flexible selection and refinement of a priori algorithm constraints. For example, limitations can be placed on retrieved quantity partial derivatives, to constrain global aerosol emission space and time variability in the results. Similarities and differences between commonly used inverse modeling and remote sensing techniques are analyzed. To retain the high space and time resolution of long-period, global observational records, the algorithm is expressed using adjoint operators.

    Successful global aerosol emission retrievals at 2°×2.5 resolution were obtained by inverting GOCART aerosol transport model output, assuming constant emissions over the diurnal cycle, and neglecting aerosol compositional differences. In addition, fine and coarse mode aerosol emission sources were inverted separately from MODIS fine and coarse mode aerosol optical thickness data, respectively. These assumptions are justified, based on observational coverage and accuracy limitations, producing valuable aerosol source locations and emission strengths. From two weeks of daily MODIS observations during August 2000, the global placement of fine mode aerosol sources agreed with available independent knowledge, even though the inverse method did not use any a priori information about aerosol sources, and was initialized with a "zero aerosol emission" assumption. Retrieving coarse mode aerosol emissions was less successful

  7. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Magdala Tesauro; Mikhail Kaban; S. A. P. L. Cloetingh

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member ‘hard’ (HRM) and a ‘soft’ (SR...

  8. Stabilising the global greenhouse. A simulation model

    Michaelis, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecolocially determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically specified and adapted to a dynamic Gams-algorithm. By various simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas accumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) A comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO 2 emissions, and iii) a ten-year moratorium that postpones abatement effort until new scientific evidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whereas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small. (orig.)

  9. Elaborating the History of Our Cementing Societies

    Cao, Zhi; Shen, Lei; Løvik, Amund N.

    2017-01-01

    Modern cities and societies are built fundamentally based on cement and concrete. The global cement production has risen sharply in the past decades due largely to urbanization and construction. Here we deployed a top-down dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model to quantify the historical deve...

  10. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  11. Toward an Integrative Model of Global Business Strategy

    Li, Xin

    fragmentation-integration-fragmentation-integration upward spiral. In response to the call for integrative approach to strategic management research, we propose an integrative model of global business strategy that aims at integrating not only strategy and IB but also the different paradigms within the strategy...... field. We also discuss the merit and limitation of our model....

  12. Combined discriminative global and generative local models for visual tracking

    Zhao, Liujun; Zhao, Qingjie; Chen, Yanming; Lv, Peng

    2016-03-01

    It is a challenging task to develop an effective visual tracking algorithm due to factors such as pose variation, rotation, and so on. Combined discriminative global and generative local appearance models are proposed to address this problem. Specifically, we develop a compact global object representation by extracting the low-frequency coefficients of the color and texture of the object based on two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Then, with the global appearance representation, we learn a discriminative metric classifier in an online fashion to differentiate the target object from its background, which is very important to robustly indicate the changes in appearance. Second, we develop a new generative local model that exploits the scale invariant feature transform and its spatial geometric information. To make use of the advantages of the global discriminative model and the generative local model, we incorporate them into Bayesian inference framework. In this framework, the complementary models help the tracker locate the target more accurately. Furthermore, we use different mechanisms to update global and local templates to capture appearance changes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy.

  13. Interdecadal variability in a global coupled model

    Storch, J.S. von.

    1994-01-01

    Interdecadal variations are studied in a 325-year simulation performed by a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model. The patterns obtained in this study may be considered as characteristic patterns for interdecadal variations. 1. The atmosphere: Interdecadal variations have no preferred time scales, but reveal well-organized spatial structures. They appear as two modes, one is related with variations of the tropical easterlies and the other with the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Both have red spectra. The amplitude of the associated wind anomalies is largest in the upper troposphere. The associated temperature anomalies are in thermal-wind balance with the zonal winds and are out-of-phase between the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. 2. The Pacific Ocean: The dominant mode in the Pacific appears to be wind-driven in the midlatitudes and is related to air-sea interaction processes during one stage of the oscillation in the tropics. Anomalies of this mode propagate westward in the tropics and the northward (southwestward) in the North (South) Pacific on a time scale of about 10 to 20 years. (orig.)

  14. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  15. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

    2009-11-30

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  16. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  17. Archaeomagnetic Dating in Europe Using a Global Geomagnetic Field Model

    Lodge, A.; Suttie, N.; Holme, R.; Shaw, J.; Hill, M. J.; Linford, P.

    2009-12-01

    Using up-to-date archaeomagnetic data from Europe and CALS7K.2 as an apriori model, we produce a global geomagnetic field model to be used for archaeomagnetic dating in Europe. More details on the modelling process will be presented elsewhere (in session GP12, abstract: Geophysical insights from archaeomagnetic dating). Here we apply the global geomagnetic field model to a series of test cases from both recently published data and unpublished data to demonstrate its application to archaeomagnetic dating. We compare the results produced using our model with those from the spherical cap harmonic model, SCHA.DIF.3K (Pavón-Carrasco et al., 2009), the global geomagnetic field model, ARCH3K.1 (Korte et al., 2009) and those produced using the palaeosecular variation curves generated using Bayesian statistics (Lanos, 2004). We include examples which emphasise the importance of using three component data (declination, inclination and intensity) to produce an improved archaeomagnetic date. In addition to the careful selection of an appropriate model for archaeomagnetic dating, the choice of errors on the model curves is vital for providing archaeologists with an age range of possible dates. We discuss how best to constrain the errors on the model curves and alternative ways to the mathematical method of Lanos (2004) for producing an archaeomagnetic date for archaeologists.

  18. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  19. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  20. Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

    Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a

  1. Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia

    Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.

  2. Global Modeling Study of the Bioavailable Atmospheric Iron Supply to the Global Ocean

    Myriokefalitakis, S.; Krol, M. C.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents acts as a nutrient source to the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in a bioavailable form that can be assimilated by the marine biota. Iron (Fe) is a key micronutrient that significantly modulates gross primary production in the High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) oceans, where macronutrients like nitrate are abundant, but primary production is limited by Fe scarcity. The global atmospheric Fe cycle is here parameterized in the state-of-the-art global Earth System Model EC-Earth. The model takes into account the primary emissions of both insoluble and soluble Fe forms, associated with mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The impact of atmospheric acidity and organic ligands on mineral dissolution processes, is parameterized based on updated experimental and theoretical findings. Model results are also evaluated against available observations. Overall, the link between the labile Fe atmospheric deposition and atmospheric composition changes is here demonstrated and quantified. This work has been financed by the Marie-Curie H2020-MSCA-IF-2015 grant (ID 705652) ODEON (Online DEposition over OceaNs; modeling the effect of air pollution on ocean bio-geochemistry in an Earth System Model).

  3. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  4. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  5. Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model

    Roubíček, Tomáš

    2018-03-01

    The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

  6. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  7. Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity

    Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2013-04-01

    In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.

  8. Team-Based Learning: Moderating Effects of Metacognitive Elaborative Rehearsal and Middle School History Content Recall

    Roberts, Greg; Scammacca, Nancy; Osman, David J.; Hall, Colby; Mohammed, Sarojani S.; Vaughn, Sharon

    2014-01-01

    Promoting Acceleration of Comprehension and Content through Text (PACT) and similar team-based models directly engage and support students in learning situations that require cognitive elaboration as part of the processing of new information. Elaboration is subject to metacognitive control, as well (Karpicke, "Journal of Experimental…

  9. Australian food life style segments and elaboration likelihood differences

    Brunsø, Karen; Reid, Mike

    As the global food marketing environment becomes more competitive, the international and comparative perspective of consumers' attitudes and behaviours becomes more important for both practitioners and academics. This research employs the Food-Related Life Style (FRL) instrument in Australia...... in order to 1) determine Australian Life Style Segments and compare these with their European counterparts, and to 2) explore differences in elaboration likelihood among the Australian segments, e.g. consumers' interest and motivation to perceive product related communication. The results provide new...

  10. Global GPS Ionospheric Modelling Using Spherical Harmonic Expansion Approach

    Byung-Kyu Choi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we developed a global ionosphere model based on measurements from a worldwide network of global positioning system (GPS. The total number of the international GPS reference stations for development of ionospheric model is about 100 and the spherical harmonic expansion approach as a mathematical method was used. In order to produce the ionospheric total electron content (TEC based on grid form, we defined spatial resolution of 2.0 degree and 5.0 degree in latitude and longitude, respectively. Two-dimensional TEC maps were constructed within the interval of one hour, and have a high temporal resolution compared to global ionosphere maps which are produced by several analysis centers. As a result, we could detect the sudden increase of TEC by processing GPS observables on 29 October, 2003 when the massive solar flare took place.

  11. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Radiotreated cocoa powder for frozen elaboration

    Rodriguez Jorge, M.; Alvarez Gil, M.; Prieto Miranda, E.; Morales Valladares, M.

    1995-01-01

    The aim of the present papers is to study the possibilities of 2.0 kGy gamma radiotreated cocoa powder to be used in the elaboration of powder mixture for the preparation of chocolate frozen. Three industrial productions were carried out. Microbiological and organoleptic evaluations of the final product were performed. The results showed that the use of radurized cocoa powder in the frozen elaboration is feasible. A good hygienic quality of this product was obtained and no organoleptic alterations were detected [es

  13. Modelling Global Pattern Formations for Collaborative Learning Environments

    Grappiolo, Corrado; Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Khaled, Rilla

    2012-01-01

    We present our research towards the design of a computational framework capable of modelling the formation and evolution of global patterns (i.e. group structures) in a population of social individuals. The framework is intended to be used in collaborative environments, e.g. social serious games...

  14. Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in ...

    Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in Yola, Nigeria. ... and average daily wind speed (WS) for the interval of three years (2010 – 2012) measured using various instruments for Yola of recorded data collected from the Center for Atmospheric Research (CAR), Anyigba are presented and analyzed.

  15. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  16. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Tesauro, M.; Kaban, M.K.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young

  17. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

    Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

    1993-09-01

    A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  18. New Models of Hybrid Leadership in Global Higher Education

    Tonini, Donna C.; Burbules, Nicholas C.; Gunsalus, C. K.

    2016-01-01

    This manuscript highlights the development of a leadership preparation program known as the Nanyang Technological University Leadership Academy (NTULA), exploring the leadership challenges unique to a university undergoing rapid growth in a highly multicultural context, and the hybrid model of leadership it developed in response to globalization.…

  19. A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

    Munoz-Carpena, R.; Muller, S. J.; Chu, M.; Kiker, G. A.; Perz, S. G.

    2014-12-01

    Model Model complexity resulting from the need to integrate environmental system components cannot be understated. In particular, additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through uncertainties surrounding the integrated system across decision-relevant scales. However, in spite of the difficulties that the consideration of modeling uncertainty represent for the decision process, it should not be avoided or the value and science behind the models will be undermined. These two issues; i.e., the need for coupled models that can answer the pertinent questions and the need for models that do so with sufficient certainty, are the key indicators of a model's relevance. Model relevance is inextricably linked with model complexity. Although model complexity has advanced greatly in recent years there has been little work to rigorously characterize the threshold of relevance in integrated and complex models. Formally assessing the relevance of the model in the face of increasing complexity would be valuable because there is growing unease among developers and users of complex models about the cumulative effects of various sources of uncertainty on model outputs. In particular, this issue has prompted doubt over whether the considerable effort going into further elaborating complex models will in fact yield the expected payback. New approaches have been proposed recently to evaluate the uncertainty-complexity-relevance modeling trilemma (Muller, Muñoz-Carpena and Kiker, 2011) by incorporating state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) in every step of the model development so as to quantify not only the uncertainty introduced by the addition of new environmental components, but the effect that these new components have over existing components (interactions, non-linear responses). Outputs from the analysis can also be used to quantify system resilience (stability, alternative states, thresholds or tipping

  20. GLOBAL STABILITY AND PERIODIC SOLUTION OF A VIRAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Erhan COŞKUN

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract:In this paper, we consider the classical viral dynamic mathematical model. Global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that, if the basic reproduction number, the HIV infection is cleared from the T-cell population; if , the HIV infection persists. For an open set of parameter values, the chronic-infection equilibrium can be unstable and periodic solutions may exist. We establish parameter regions for which is globally stable. Keywords: Global stability, HIV infection; CD4+ T cells; Periodic solution Mathematics Subject Classifications (2000: 65L10, 34B05 BİR VİRAL DİNAMİK MODELİN GLOBAL KARARLILIĞI VE PERİYODİK ÇÖZÜMÜ Özet: Bu makalede klasik viral dinamik modeli ele aldık. Modelin global dinamikleri oluşturuldu. Eğer temel üretim sayısı olur ise HIV enfeksiyonu T hücre nüfusundan çıkartılır, eğer olursa HIV enfeksiyonu çıkartılamaz. Parametre değerlerinin açık bir kümesi için kronik enfeksiyon dengesi kararsızdır ve periyodik çözüm oluşabilir. ın global kararlı olduğu parametre bölgeleri oluşturuldu. Anahtar Kelimeler: Global Kararlılık, HIV enfeksiyon, CD4+ T hücreler, Periyodik çözüm

  1. The Global Classroom Video Conferencing Model and First Evaluations

    Weitze, Charlotte Lærke; Ørngreen, Rikke; Levinsen, Karin

    2013-01-01

    pedagogical innovativeness, including collaborative and technological issues. The research is based on the Global Classroom Model as it is implemented and used at an adult learning center in Denmark (VUC Storstrøm). VUC Storstrøms (VUC) Global Classroom Model is an approach to video conferencing and e......Learning using campus-based teaching combined with laptop solutions for students at home. After a couple of years of campus-to-campus video streaming, VUC started a fulltime day program in 2011 with the support of a hybrid campus and videoconference model. In this model the teachers and some of the students......This paper presents and discusses findings about how students, teachers, and the organization experience a start-up-project applying video conferences between campus and home. This is new territory for adult learning centers. The paper discusses the transition to this eLearning form and discusses...

  2. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  3. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    Li Guihua [Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Faculty of Life Science, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)]. E-mail: liguihua@nuc.edu.cn; Wang Wendi [Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China); Jin Zhen [Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)

    2006-11-15

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory.

  4. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    Li Guihua; Wang Wendi; Jin Zhen

    2006-01-01

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory

  5. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  6. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  7. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  8. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  9. Global characteristics of geomagnetic excursions as seen in global empirical models and a numerical geodynamo simulation

    Korte, M. C.; Wardinski, I.; Brown, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Paleomagnetic results from sediments and lava flows provide observational evidence of numerous geomagnetic excursions throughout Earth's history. Two new spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models covering 50-30 ka, including the Laschamp ( 41ka) and Mono Lake ( 32-35 ka) excursions allow us to characterize the global behaviour of these events, both at Earth's surface and the core-mantle boundary. We investigate the evolution of dipole and large-scale non-dipole power throughout the duration of the model and the morphology of the large-scale radial field at the core-mantle boundary. The models suggest clear differences in both the decrease in axial dipole strength and dipole tilt between the two excursions and unlike the previously published model by Leonhardt et al. (2009), they suggest some increase of non-dipole power during the early and late stages of the Laschamp excursion. Global characteristics from the models can be directly compared with results from numerical simulations. We do so for several excursions generated by a numerical simulation driven by purely compositional convection, which appears Earth-like in terms of excursion and reversal occurrence frequency. Excursions from this simulation show differing characteristics, including differences in spectral power evolution. Some cases show similarities to the Laschamp and Mono Lake excursions in the spherical harmonic models. In particular they all indicate that excursions are mainly governed by the axial dipole term and equatorial dipole terms play a minor role.

  10. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  11. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  12. Global solution for a chemotactic haptotactic model of cancer invasion

    Tao, Youshan; Wang, Mingjun

    2008-10-01

    This paper deals with a mathematical model of cancer invasion of tissue recently proposed by Chaplain and Lolas. The model consists of a reaction-diffusion-taxis partial differential equation (PDE) describing the evolution of tumour cell density, a reaction-diffusion PDE governing the evolution of the proteolytic enzyme concentration and an ordinary differential equation modelling the proteolysis of the extracellular matrix (ECM). In addition to random motion, the tumour cells are directed not only by haptotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of adhesive molecules along the ECM) but also by chemotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of the diffusible proteolytic enzyme). In one space dimension, the global existence and uniqueness of a classical solution to this combined chemotactic-haptotactic model is proved for any chemotactic coefficient χ > 0. In two and three space dimensions, the global existence is proved for small χ/μ (where μ is the logistic growth rate of the tumour cells). The fundamental point of proof is to raise the regularity of a solution from L1 to Lp (p > 1). Furthermore, the existence of blow-up solutions to a sub-model in two space dimensions for large χ shows, to some extent, that the condition that χ/μ is small is necessary for the global existence of a solution to the full model.

  13. Global Earth Response to Loading by Ocean Tide Models

    Estes, R. H.; Strayer, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical and programming techniques to numerically calculate Earth response to global semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tide models were developed. Global vertical crustal deformations were evaluated for M sub 2, S sub 2, N sub 2, K sub 2, K sub 1, O sub 1, and P sub 1 ocean tide loading, while horizontal deformations were evaluated for the M sub 2 tidal load. Tidal gravity calculations were performed for M sub 2 tidal loads, and strain tensor elements were evaluated for M sub 2 loads. The M sub 2 solution used for the ocean tide included the effects of self-gravitation and crustal loading.

  14. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  15. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  16. Elaborative Retrieval: Do Semantic Mediators Improve Memory?

    Lehman, Melissa; Karpicke, Jeffrey D.

    2016-01-01

    The elaborative retrieval account of retrieval-based learning proposes that retrieval enhances retention because the retrieval process produces the generation of semantic mediators that link cues to target information. We tested 2 assumptions that form the basis of this account: that semantic mediators are more likely to be generated during…

  17. The global electroweak Standard Model fit after the Higgs discovery

    Baak, Max

    2013-01-01

    We present an update of the global Standard Model (SM) fit to electroweak precision data under the assumption that the new particle discovered at the LHC is the SM Higgs boson. In this scenario all parameters entering the calculations of electroweak precision observalbes are known, allowing, for the first time, to over-constrain the SM at the electroweak scale and assert its validity. Within the SM the W boson mass and the effective weak mixing angle can be accurately predicted from the global fit. The results are compatible with, and exceed in precision, the direct measurements. An updated determination of the S, T and U parameters, which parametrize the oblique vacuum corrections, is given. The obtained values show good consistency with the SM expectation and no direct signs of new physics are seen. We conclude with an outlook to the global electroweak fit for a future e+e- collider.

  18. A global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness.

    Raffone, Antonino; Pantani, Martina

    2010-06-01

    Both the global workspace theory and Block's distinction between phenomenal and access consciousness, are central in the current debates about consciousness and the neural correlates of consciousness. In this article, a unifying global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness is proposed. In the model, recurrent neural interactions take place in distinct yet interacting access and phenomenal brain loops. The effectiveness of feedback signaling onto sensory cortical maps is emphasized for the neural correlates of phenomenal consciousness. Two forms of top-down attention, attention for perception and attention for access, play differential roles for phenomenal and access consciousness. The model is implemented in a neural network form, with the simulation of single and multiple visual object processing, and of the attentional blink. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  20. [Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

    Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

    2014-08-01

    Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

  1. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

  2. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper developed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by implementing four programs. All programs were conducted with students majoring nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, most of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students’ reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students’ awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre and post-program implementation. We discuss how identifying students’ needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula.

  3. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  4. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  5. Analysis of Long-Term Global Solar Radiation, Sunshine Duration and Air Temperature Data of Ankara and Modeling with Curve Fitting Methods

    Mehmet YEŞİLBUDAK

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The information about solar parameters is important in the installation of photovoltaic energy systems that are reliable, environmentally friendly and sustainable. In this study, initially, long-term global solar radiation, sunshine duration and air temperature data of Ankara are analyzed on the annual, monthly and daily basis, elaborately. Afterwards, three different empirical methods that are polynomial, Gaussian and Fourier are used for the purpose of modeling long-term monthly total global solar radiation, monthly total sunshine duration and monthly mean air temperature data. The coefficient of determination and the root mean square error are computed as statistical test metrics in order to compare data modeling performance of the mentioned empirical methods. The empirical methods that provide the best results enable to model the solar characteristics of Ankara more accurately and the achieved outcomes constitute the significant resource for other locations with similar climatic conditions.

  6. Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

    Wang, Hesheng, E-mail: hesheng@umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Feng, Mary [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Jackson, Andrew [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Cao, Yue [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.

  7. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  8. Global stability of two models with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis

    Yang Yali; Li Jianquan; Ma Zhien; Liu Luju

    2010-01-01

    Research highlights: → Two tuberculosis models with incomplete treatment. → Intuitive epidemiological interpretations for the basic reproduction numbers. → Global dynamics of the two models. → Strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis. - Abstract: Two tuberculosis (TB) models with incomplete treatment are investigated. It is assumed that the treated individuals may enter either the latent compartment due to the remainder of Mycobacterium tuberculosis or the infectious compartment due to the treatment failure. The first model is a simple one with treatment failure reflecting the current TB treatment fact in most countries with high tuberculosis incidence. The second model refines the simple one by dividing the latent compartment into slow and fast two kinds of progresses. This improvement can be used to describe the case that the latent TB individuals have been infected with some other chronic diseases (such as HIV and diabetes) which may weaken the immunity of infected individuals and shorten the latent period of TB. Both of the two models assume mass action incidence and exponential distributions of transfers between different compartments. The basic reproduction numbers of the two models are derived and their intuitive epidemiological interpretations are given. The global dynamics of two models are all proved by using Liapunov functions. At last, some strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis are discussed.

  9. A Global Change in Higher Education: Entrepreneurial University Model

    Süreyya SAKINÇ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Universities are affected by the social and economic diversity stemmed from globalization and internationalization, and its functions, area of responsibility, organizational structure, funding capability respond this diversity. In today's knowledge society, different new concepts regarding the university education system such as Entrepreneur University, Corporation University, virtual university etc. have been emerged with wave of globalization effect. The rising competition in academic education and the mass demands for education prompt to universities to get seeking new funds for fixing their financial situation, and hit them transforming into entrepreneurial identity. The reflections of neoliberal approach in education have transformed the universities into the corporations which are much more focused on entrepreneurial, student-oriented and aimed to appropriate education and producing creative human resources for global development. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation will be carried on regarding the entrepreneur university model through the litterateur research to investigate its causes and factors that impact and improve it. The aim of the paper is to generate a framework that identifies dynamic processes of entrepreneur university model, dependently the litterateur syntheses. The contribution of the paper will depend on its consequent argument that entrepreneur university model is viable for Turkey. In this paper, the entrepreneur university model will be analyzed by Triple Helix phenomenon with the comparative approach.

  10. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  11. Preparing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for global retrospective air quality modeling

    The US EPA has a plan to leverage recent advances in meteorological modeling to develop a "Next-Generation" air quality modeling system that will allow consistent modeling of problems from global to local scale. The meteorological model of choice is the Model for Predic...

  12. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  13. Note of the 20 December 2016 on the elaboration of regional biomass schemes

    Michel, Laurent; GESLAIN-LANEELLE, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    This official note informs Region prefects on modalities of elaboration of regional biomass schemes, and provides them with data on mobilizable biomass resources at the regional level. It briefly presents the legal framework of the scheme elaboration, the elaboration agenda, and the scope of usages of biomass to be considered within the scheme. It discusses the articulation between regional and national schemes, from a global point of view as well as in terms works of elaboration. It briefly describes how the regional scheme is to be assessed. Appendices present planning and programming elements to be taken into account, elements of explanation for the regional biomass table, institutions represented in the information and orientation committee of the national scheme, and regional biomass tables which contain detailed assessments of the various biomass resources for each French region

  14. Bioavailable atmospheric phosphorous supply to the global ocean: a 3-D global modeling study

    Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Nenes, Athanasios; Baker, Alex R.; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-12-01

    The atmospheric cycle of phosphorus (P) is parameterized here in a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemistry transport model, taking into account primary emissions of total P (TP) and soluble P (DP) associated with mineral dust, combustion particles from natural and anthropogenic sources, bioaerosols, sea spray and volcanic aerosols. For the present day, global TP emissions are calculated to be roughly 1.33 Tg-P yr-1, with the mineral sources contributing more than 80 % to these emissions. The P solubilization from mineral dust under acidic atmospheric conditions is also parameterized in the model and is calculated to contribute about one-third (0.14 Tg-P yr-1) of the global DP atmospheric source. To our knowledge, a unique aspect of our global study is the explicit modeling of the evolution of phosphorus speciation in the atmosphere. The simulated present-day global annual DP deposition flux is 0.45 Tg-P yr-1 (about 40 % over oceans), showing a strong spatial and temporal variability. Present-day simulations of atmospheric P aerosol concentrations and deposition fluxes are satisfactory compared with available observations, indicating however an underestimate of about 70 % on current knowledge of the sources that drive the P atmospheric cycle. Sensitivity simulations using preindustrial (year 1850) anthropogenic and biomass burning emission scenarios showed a present-day increase of 75 % in the P solubilization flux from mineral dust, i.e., the rate at which P is converted into soluble forms, compared to preindustrial times, due to increasing atmospheric acidity over the last 150 years. Future reductions in air pollutants due to the implementation of air-quality regulations are expected to decrease the P solubilization flux from mineral dust by about 30 % in the year 2100 compared to the present day. Considering, however, that all the P contained in bioaerosols is readily available for uptake by marine organisms, and also accounting for all other DP sources, a total

  15. Global dissipativity of continuous-time recurrent neural networks with time delay

    Liao Xiaoxin; Wang Jun

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the global dissipativity of a general class of continuous-time recurrent neural networks. First, the concepts of global dissipation and global exponential dissipation are defined and elaborated. Next, the sets of global dissipativity and global exponentially dissipativity are characterized using the parameters of recurrent neural network models. In particular, it is shown that the Hopfield network and cellular neural networks with or without time delays are dissipative systems

  16. Global Fluxon Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

    Lamb, D. A.; DeForest, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    The fluxon approach to MHD modeling enables simulations of low-beta plasmas in the absence of undesirable numerical effects such as diffusion and magnetic reconnection. The magnetic field can be modeled as a collection of discrete field lines ("fluxons") containing a set amount of magnetic flux in a prescribed field topology. Due to the fluxon model's pseudo-Lagrangian grid, simulations can be completed in a fraction of the time of traditional grid-based simulations, enabling near-real-time simulations of the global magnetic field structure and its influence on solar wind properties. Using SDO/HMI synoptic magnetograms as lower magnetic boundary conditions, and a separate one-dimensional fluid flow model attached to each fluxon, we compare the resulting fluxon relaxations with other commonly-used global models (such as PFSS), and with white-light images of the corona (including the August 2017 total solar eclipse). Finally, we show the computed magnetic field expansion ratio, and the modeled solar wind speed near the coronal-heliospheric transition. Development of the fluxon MHD model FLUX (the Field Line Universal relaXer), has been funded by NASA's Living with a Star program and by Southwest Research Institute.

  17. Global Bifurcation of a Novel Computer Virus Propagation Model

    Jianguo Ren

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In a recent paper by J. Ren et al. (2012, a novel computer virus propagation model under the effect of the antivirus ability in a real network is established. The analysis there only partially uncovers the dynamics behaviors of virus spread over the network in the case where around bifurcation is local. In the present paper, by mathematical analysis, it is further shown that, under appropriate parameter values, the model may undergo a global B-T bifurcation, and the curves of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation are obtained to illustrate the qualitative behaviors of virus propagation. On this basis, a collection of policies is recommended to prohibit the virus prevalence. To our knowledge, this is the first time the global bifurcation has been explored for the computer virus propagation. Theoretical results and corresponding suggestions may help us suppress or eliminate virus propagation in the network.

  18. Power Elites and Club-Model Governance in Global Finance

    Tsingou, Eleni

    2014-01-01

    Contribution to the Forum: Unpacking the Deep Structures of Global Governance: How Transnational Professionals Can Make Global Governance Intelligible.......Contribution to the Forum: Unpacking the Deep Structures of Global Governance: How Transnational Professionals Can Make Global Governance Intelligible....

  19. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

    2013-08-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

  20. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The co...

  1. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J.

    2006-06-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quantifying the errors in regional and global budgets. The sensitivity to vertical mixing through the parameterization of boundary layer turbulence is also examined. We find less ozone production in the boundary layer at higher resolution, consistent with slower chemical production in polluted emission regions and greater export of precursors. Agreement with ozonesonde and aircraft measurements made during the NASA TRACE-P campaign over the western Pacific in spring 2001 is consistently better at higher resolution. We demonstrate that the numerical errors in transport processes on a given resolution converge geometrically for a tracer at successively higher resolutions. The convergence in ozone production on progressing from T21 to T42, T63, and T106 resolution is likewise monotonic but indicates that there are still large errors at 120 km scales, suggesting that T106 resolution is too coarse to resolve regional ozone production. Diagnosing the ozone production and precursor transport that follow a short pulse of emissions over east Asia in springtime allows us to quantify the impacts of resolution on both regional and global ozone. Production close to continental emission regions is overestimated by 27% at T21 resolution, by 13% at T42 resolution, and by 5% at T106 resolution. However, subsequent ozone production in the free troposphere is not greatly affected. We find that the export of short-lived precursors such as NOx by convection is overestimated at coarse resolution.

  2. An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

    Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

    2015-04-01

    The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

  3. Globalization and migration: A "unified brain drain" model

    Brezis, Elise S.; Soueri, Ariel

    2012-01-01

    Globalization has led to a vast flow of migration of workers but also of students. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the migration of individuals encompassing decisions already at the level of education. We develop a unified brain drain model that incorporates the decisions of an individual vis - à - vis both education and migration. In the empirical part, this paper addresses international flows of migration within the EU and presents strong evidence of concentration of students in cou...

  4. An Analysis of Yip's Global Strategy Model, Using Coca-Cola ...

    Analysis of the selected business cases suggest a weak fit between the Yip model of a truly Global strategy ... like Coca-Cola in the beverage industry for effective implementation of a global strategy. ... Keywords: Global Strategy, Leadership.

  5. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  6. GLOFRIM v1.0-A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

    Hoch, Jannis M.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Baart, Fedor; Van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Bates, Paul D.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2017-01-01

    We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global

  7. [Elaboration and critical evaluation of clinical guidelines].

    García Villar, C

    2015-11-01

    Clinical guidelines are documents to help professionals and patients select the best diagnostic or therapeutic option. Elaborating guidelines requires an efficient literature search and a critical evaluation of the articles found to select the most appropriate ones. After that, the recommendations are formulated and then must be externally evaluated before they can be disseminated. Even when the guidelines are very thorough and rigorous, it is important to know whether they fulfill all the methodological requisites before applying them. With this aim, various scales have been developed to critically appraise guidelines. Of these, the AGREE II instrument is currently the most widely used. This article explains the main steps in elaborating clinical guidelines and the main aspects that should be analyzed to know whether the guidelines are well written. Copyright © 2015 SERAM. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland

    Walsh, John E.; Chapman, William L.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    The performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-Arctic and Northern Hemisphere extratropical domains. Root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958...... to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and the broader Arctic....... of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. There is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the Arctic, as well as larger increases of Arctic...

  9. Geographic assistance of decontamination strategy elaboration

    Davydchuk, V.; Arapis, G.

    1996-01-01

    Those who elaborates the strategy of decontamination of vast territories is to take into consideration the heterogeneity of such elements of landscape as relief, lithology, humidity and types of soils and, vegetation, both on local and regional level. Geographic assistance includes evaluation of efficacy of decontamination technologies in different natural conditions, identification of areas of their effective application and definition of ecological damage, estimation of balances of the radionuclides in the landscapes to create background of the decontamination strategy

  10. Mapping the global depth to bedrock for land surface modelling

    Shangguan, W.; Hengl, T.; Yuan, H.; Dai, Y. J.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depth to bedrock serves as the lower boundary of land surface models, which controls hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. This paper presents a framework for global estimation of Depth to bedrock (DTB). Observations were extracted from a global compilation of soil profile data (ca. 130,000 locations) and borehole data (ca. 1.6 million locations). Additional pseudo-observations generated by expert knowledge were added to fill in large sampling gaps. The model training points were then overlaid on a stack of 155 covariates including DEM-based hydrological and morphological derivatives, lithologic units, MODIS surfacee reflectance bands and vegetation indices derived from the MODIS land products. Global spatial prediction models were developed using random forests and Gradient Boosting Tree algorithms. The final predictions were generated at the spatial resolution of 250m as an ensemble prediction of the two independently fitted models. The 10-fold cross-validation shows that the models explain 59% for absolute DTB and 34% for censored DTB (depths deep than 200 cm are predicted as 200 cm). The model for occurrence of R horizon (bedrock) within 200 cm does a good job. Visual comparisons of predictions in the study areas where more detailed maps of depth to bedrock exist show that there is a general match with spatial patterns from similar local studies. Limitation of the data set and extrapolation in data spare areas should not be ignored in applications. To improve accuracy of spatial prediction, more borehole drilling logs will need to be added to supplement the existing training points in under-represented areas.

  11. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  12. Global Stability of an Epidemic Model of Computer Virus

    Xiaofan Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid popularization of the Internet, computers can enter or leave the Internet increasingly frequently. In fact, no antivirus software can detect and remove all sorts of computer viruses. This implies that viruses would persist on the Internet. To better understand the spread of computer viruses in these situations, a new propagation model is established and analyzed. The unique equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable, in accordance with the reality. A parameter analysis of the equilibrium is also conducted.

  13. Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 Version: Users Guide

    Justh, H. L.

    2014-01-01

    This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 (Mars-GRAM 2010) and its new features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Applications include systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for aerobraking, entry, descent and landing, and aerocapture. Additionally, this TM includes instructions on obtaining the Mars-GRAM source code and data files as well as running Mars-GRAM. It also contains sample Mars-GRAM input and output files and an example of how to incorporate Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

  14. Global atmospheric model for mercury including oxidation by bromine atoms

    C. D. Holmes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Global models of atmospheric mercury generally assume that gas-phase OH and ozone are the main oxidants converting Hg0 to HgII and thus driving mercury deposition to ecosystems. However, thermodynamic considerations argue against the importance of these reactions. We demonstrate here the viability of atomic bromine (Br as an alternative Hg0 oxidant. We conduct a global 3-D simulation with the GEOS-Chem model assuming gas-phase Br to be the sole Hg0 oxidant (Hg + Br model and compare to the previous version of the model with OH and ozone as the sole oxidants (Hg + OH/O3 model. We specify global 3-D Br concentration fields based on our best understanding of tropospheric and stratospheric Br chemistry. In both the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models, we add an aqueous photochemical reduction of HgII in cloud to impose a tropospheric lifetime for mercury of 6.5 months against deposition, as needed to reconcile observed total gaseous mercury (TGM concentrations with current estimates of anthropogenic emissions. This added reduction would not be necessary in the Hg + Br model if we adjusted the Br oxidation kinetics downward within their range of uncertainty. We find that the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models are equally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of TGM and its seasonal cycle at northern mid-latitudes. The Hg + Br model shows a steeper decline of TGM concentrations from the tropics to southern mid-latitudes. Only the Hg + Br model can reproduce the springtime depletion and summer rebound of TGM observed at polar sites; the snowpack component of GEOS-Chem suggests that 40% of HgII deposited to snow in the Arctic is transferred to the ocean and land reservoirs, amounting to a net deposition flux to the Arctic of 60 Mg a−1. Summertime events of depleted Hg0 at Antarctic sites due to subsidence are much better simulated by

  15. An Instructional Development Model for Global Organizations: The GOaL Model.

    Hara, Noriko; Schwen, Thomas M.

    1999-01-01

    Presents an instructional development model, GOaL (Global Organization Localization), for use by global organizations. Topics include gaps in language, culture, and needs; decentralized processes; collaborative efforts; predetermined content; multiple perspectives; needs negotiation; learning within context; just-in-time training; and bilingual…

  16. The Global Modeling Test Bed - Building a New National Capability for Advancing Operational Global Modeling in the United States.

    Toepfer, F.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Kuo, W.; Tallapragada, V.; Stajner, I.; Nance, L. B.; Kelleher, K. E.; Firl, G.; Bernardet, L.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA develops, operates, and maintains an operational global modeling capability for weather, sub seasonal and seasonal prediction for the protection of life and property and fostering the US economy. In order to substantially improve the overall performance and accelerate advancements of the operational modeling suite, NOAA is partnering with NCAR to design and build the Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB). The GMTB has been established to provide a platform and a capability for researchers to contribute to the advancement primarily through the development of physical parameterizations needed to improve operational NWP. The strategy to achieve this goal relies on effectively leveraging global expertise through a modern collaborative software development framework. This framework consists of a repository of vetted and supported physical parameterizations known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a common well-documented interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) for combining schemes into suites and for their configuration and connection to dynamic cores, and an open evidence-based governance process for managing the development and evolution of CCPP. In addition, a physics test harness designed to work within this framework has been established in order to facilitate easier like-to-like comparison of physics advancements. This paper will present an overview of the design of the CCPP and test platform. Additionally, an overview of potential new opportunities of how physics developers can engage in the process, from implementing code for CCPP/IPD compliance to testing their development within an operational-like software environment, will be presented. In addition, insight will be given as to how development gets elevated to CPPP-supported status, the pre-cursor to broad availability and use within operational NWP. An overview of how the GMTB can be expanded to support other global or regional modeling capabilities will also be presented.

  17. Do Methods Matter in Global Leadership Development? Testing the Global Leadership Development Ecosystem Conceptual Model

    Walker, Jennie L.

    2018-01-01

    As world communication, technology, and trade become increasingly integrated through globalization, multinational corporations seek employees with global leadership skills. However, the demand for these skills currently outweighs the supply. Given the rarity of globally ready leaders, global competency development should be emphasized in business…

  18. Log-Normal Turbulence Dissipation in Global Ocean Models

    Pearson, Brodie; Fox-Kemper, Baylor

    2018-03-01

    Data from turbulent numerical simulations of the global ocean demonstrate that the dissipation of kinetic energy obeys a nearly log-normal distribution even at large horizontal scales O (10 km ) . As the horizontal scales of resolved turbulence are larger than the ocean is deep, the Kolmogorov-Yaglom theory for intermittency in 3D homogeneous, isotropic turbulence cannot apply; instead, the down-scale potential enstrophy cascade of quasigeostrophic turbulence should. Yet, energy dissipation obeys approximate log-normality—robustly across depths, seasons, regions, and subgrid schemes. The distribution parameters, skewness and kurtosis, show small systematic departures from log-normality with depth and subgrid friction schemes. Log-normality suggests that a few high-dissipation locations dominate the integrated energy and enstrophy budgets, which should be taken into account when making inferences from simplified models and inferring global energy budgets from sparse observations.

  19. Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

    Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

  20. Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

    Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

  1. Global Bedload Flux Modeling and Analysis in Large Rivers

    Islam, M. T.; Cohen, S.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Proper sediment transport quantification has long been an area of interest for both scientists and engineers in the fields of geomorphology, and management of rivers and coastal waters. Bedload flux is important for monitoring water quality and for sustainable development of coastal and marine bioservices. Bedload measurements, especially for large rivers, is extremely scarce across time, and many rivers have never been monitored. Bedload measurements in rivers, is particularly acute in developing countries where changes in sediment yields is high. The paucity of bedload measurements is the result of 1) the nature of the problem (large spatial and temporal uncertainties), and 2) field costs including the time-consuming nature of the measurement procedures (repeated bedform migration tracking, bedload samplers). Here we present a first of its kind methodology for calculating bedload in large global rivers (basins are >1,000 km. Evaluation of model skill is based on 113 bedload measurements. The model predictions are compared with an empirical model developed from the observational dataset in an attempt to evaluate the differences between a physically-based numerical model and a lumped relationship between bedload flux and fluvial and basin parameters (e.g., discharge, drainage area, lithology). The initial study success opens up various applications to global fluvial geomorphology (e.g. including the relationship between suspended sediment (wash load) and bedload). Simulated results with known uncertainties offers a new research product as a valuable resource for the whole scientific community.

  2. Globally covering a-priori regional gravity covariance models

    D. Arabelos

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Gravity anomaly data generated using Wenzel’s GPM98A model complete to degree 1800, from which OSU91A has been subtracted, have been used to estimate covariance functions for a set of globally covering equal-area blocks of size 22.5° × 22.5° at Equator, having a 2.5° overlap. For each block an analytic covariance function model was determined. The models are based on 4 parameters: the depth to the Bjerhammar sphere (determines correlation, the free-air gravity anomaly variance, a scale factor of the OSU91A error degree-variances and a maximal summation index, N, of the error degree-variances. The depth of Bjerhammar-sphere varies from -134km to nearly zero, N varies from 360 to 40, the scale factor from 0.03 to 38.0 and the gravity variance from 1081 to 24(10µms-22. The parameters are interpreted in terms of the quality of the data used to construct OSU91A and GPM98A and general conditions such as the occurrence of mountain chains. The variation of the parameters show that it is necessary to use regional covariance models in order to obtain a realistic signal to noise ratio in global applications.Key words. GOCE mission, Covariance function, Spacewise approach`

  3. Glass viscosity calculation based on a global statistical modelling approach

    Fluegel, Alex

    2007-02-01

    A global statistical glass viscosity model was developed for predicting the complete viscosity curve, based on more than 2200 composition-property data of silicate glasses from the scientific literature, including soda-lime-silica container and float glasses, TV panel glasses, borosilicate fiber wool and E type glasses, low expansion borosilicate glasses, glasses for nuclear waste vitrification, lead crystal glasses, binary alkali silicates, and various further compositions from over half a century. It is shown that within a measurement series from a specific laboratory the reported viscosity values are often over-estimated at higher temperatures due to alkali and boron oxide evaporation during the measurement and glass preparation, including data by Lakatos et al. (1972) and the recently published High temperature glass melt property database for process modeling by Seward et al. (2005). Similarly, in the glass transition range many experimental data of borosilicate glasses are reported too high due to phase separation effects. The developed global model corrects those errors. The model standard error was 9-17°C, with R^2 = 0.985-0.989. The prediction 95% confidence interval for glass in mass production largely depends on the glass composition of interest, the composition uncertainty, and the viscosity level. New insights in the mixed-alkali effect are provided.

  4. Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

    Y. Zhao

    2009-11-01

    generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

  5. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  6. Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

    Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

    2013-07-15

    Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

    Kaneko, D.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires

  8. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  9. Global Gauge Anomalies in Two-Dimensional Bosonic Sigma Models

    Gawȩdzki, Krzysztof; Suszek, Rafał R.; Waldorf, Konrad

    2011-03-01

    We revisit the gauging of rigid symmetries in two-dimensional bosonic sigma models with a Wess-Zumino term in the action. Such a term is related to a background closed 3-form H on the target space. More exactly, the sigma-model Feynman amplitudes of classical fields are associated to a bundle gerbe with connection of curvature H over the target space. Under conditions that were unraveled more than twenty years ago, the classical amplitudes may be coupled to the topologically trivial gauge fields of the symmetry group in a way which assures infinitesimal gauge invariance. We show that the resulting gauged Wess-Zumino amplitudes may, nevertheless, exhibit global gauge anomalies that we fully classify. The general results are illustrated on the example of the WZW and the coset models of conformal field theory. The latter are shown to be inconsistent in the presence of global anomalies. We introduce a notion of equivariant gerbes that allow an anomaly-free coupling of the Wess-Zumino amplitudes to all gauge fields, including the ones in non-trivial principal bundles. Obstructions to the existence of equivariant gerbes and their classification are discussed. The choice of different equivariant structures on the same bundle gerbe gives rise to a new type of discrete-torsion ambiguities in the gauged amplitudes. An explicit construction of gerbes equivariant with respect to the adjoint symmetries over compact simply connected simple Lie groups is given.

  10. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  11. Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

    Sahagian, Dork

    1995-01-01

    Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

  12. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  13. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  14. Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs

    Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.

    2011-01-01

    The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)

  15. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  16. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  17. Simplifiying global biogeochemistry models to evaluate methane emissions

    Gerber, S.; Alonso-Contes, C.

    2017-12-01

    Process-based models are important tools to quantify wetland methane emissions, particularly also under climate change scenarios, evaluating these models is often cumbersome as they are embedded in larger land-surface models where fluctuating water table and the carbon cycle (including new readily decomposable plant material) are predicted variables. Here, we build on these large scale models but instead of modeling water table and plant productivity we provide values as boundary conditions. In contrast, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, as well as soil column transport of oxygen and methane are predicted by the model. Because of these simplifications, the model has the potential to be more readily adaptable to the analysis of field-scale data. Here we determine the sensitivity of the model to specific setups, parameter choices, and to boundary conditions in order to determine set-up needs and inform what critical auxiliary variables need to be measured in order to better predict field-scale methane emissions from wetland soils. To that end we performed a global sensitivity analysis that also considers non-linear interactions between processes. The global sensitivity analysis revealed, not surprisingly, that water table dynamics (both mean level and amplitude of fluctuations), and the rate of the carbon cycle (i.e. net primary productivity) are critical determinants of methane emissions. The depth-scale where most of the potential decomposition occurs also affects methane emissions. Different transport mechanisms are compensating each other to some degree: If plant conduits are constrained, methane emissions by diffusive flux and ebullition compensate to some degree, however annual emissions are higher when plants help to bypass methanotrophs in temporally unsaturated upper layers. Finally, while oxygen consumption by plant roots help creating anoxic conditions it has little effect on overall methane emission. Our initial sensitivity analysis helps guiding

  18. ACCURACY ASSESSMENT OF RECENT GLOBAL OCEAN TIDE MODELS AROUND ANTARCTICA

    J. Lei

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8 is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  19. Accuracy Assessment of Recent Global Ocean Tide Models around Antarctica

    Lei, J.; Li, F.; Zhang, S.; Ke, H.; Zhang, Q.; Li, W.

    2017-09-01

    Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8) is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region) are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  20. Synthesis of zirconium by zirconium tetrachloride reduction by magnesio-thermia. Experimental study and modelling; Elaboration de zirconium par reduction de tetrachlorure de zirconium par magnesothermie. Etude experimentale et modelisation

    Basin, N

    2001-01-01

    This work deals with the synthesis of zirconium. The ore is carbo-chlorinated to obtain the tetrachloride which is then purified by selective condensation and extractive distillation. Zirconium tetrachloride is then reduced by magnesium and the pseudo-alloy is obtained according to the global following reaction (Kroll process): ZrCl{sub 4} + 2 Mg = 2 MgCl{sub 2}. By thermodynamics, it has been shown that the volatilization of magnesium chloride and the formation of zirconium sub-chlorides are minimized when the combined effects of temperature and of dilution with argon are limited. With these conditions, the products, essentially zirconium and magnesium chloride, are obtained in equivalence ratio in the magnesio-thermia reaction. The global kinetics of the reduction process has been studied by a thermal gravimetric method. A thermo-balance device has been developed specially for this kinetics study. It runs under a controlled atmosphere and is coupled to a vapor tetrachloride feed unit. The transformation is modelled supposing that the zirconium and magnesium chloride formation result: 1)of the evaporation of magnesium from its liquid phase 2)of the transfer of magnesium and zirconium tetrachloride vapors towards the front of the reaction located in the gaseous phase 3)of the chemical reaction. In the studied conditions, the diffusion is supposed to be the limiting process. The influence of the following parameters: geometry of the reactive zone, temperature, scanning rate of the argon-zirconium tetrachloride mixture, composition of the argon-zirconium tetrachloride mixture has been experimentally studied and confronted with success to the model. (O.M.)

  1. A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

    Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Balyk, Olexandr

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to test the ETSAP2-TIAM global energy system model and to try out how far it can go towards a global 100% renewable energy system with the existing model database. This will show where limits in global resources are met and where limits in the data fed to the model until now are met...

  2. Signal classification using global dynamical models, Part I: Theory

    Kadtke, J.; Kremliovsky, M.

    1996-01-01

    Detection and classification of signals is one of the principal areas of signal processing, and the utilization of nonlinear information has long been considered as a way of improving performance beyond standard linear (e.g. spectral) techniques. Here, we develop a method for using global models of chaotic dynamical systems theory to define a signal classification processing chain, which is sensitive to nonlinear correlations in the data. We use it to demonstrate classification in high noise regimes (negative SNR), and argue that classification probabilities can be directly computed from ensemble statistics in the model coefficient space. We also develop a modification for non-stationary signals (i.e. transients) using non-autonomous ODEs. In Part II of this paper, we demonstrate the analysis on actual open ocean acoustic data from marine biologics. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  3. A Global Modeling Framework for Plasma Kinetics: Development and Applications

    Parsey, Guy Morland

    The modern study of plasmas, and applications thereof, has developed synchronously with com- puter capabilities since the mid-1950s. Complexities inherent to these charged-particle, many- body, systems have resulted in the development of multiple simulation methods (particle-in-cell, fluid, global modeling, etc.) in order to both explain observed phenomena and predict outcomes of plasma applications. Recognizing that different algorithms are chosen to best address specific topics of interest, this thesis centers around the development of an open-source global model frame- work for the focused study of non-equilibrium plasma kinetics. After verification and validation of the framework, it was used to study two physical phenomena: plasma-assisted combustion and the recently proposed optically-pumped rare gas metastable laser. Global models permeate chemistry and plasma science, relying on spatial averaging to focus attention on the dynamics of reaction networks. Defined by a set of species continuity and energy conservation equations, the required data and constructed systems are conceptually similar across most applications, providing a light platform for exploratory and result-search parameter scan- ning. Unfortunately, it is common practice for custom code to be developed for each application-- an enormous duplication of effort which negatively affects the quality of the software produced. Presented herein, the Python-based Kinetic Global Modeling framework (KGMf) was designed to support all modeling phases: collection and analysis of reaction data, construction of an exportable system of model ODEs, and a platform for interactive evaluation and post-processing analysis. A symbolic ODE system is constructed for interactive manipulation and generation of a Jacobian, both of which are compiled as operation-optimized C-code. Plasma-assisted combustion and ignition (PAC/PAI) embody the modernization of burning fuel by opening up new avenues of control and optimization

  4. Investigation of Global Imbalances Based on a Gravity Model

    Hyun-Hoon Lee

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Using the US Treasury International Capital (TIC data, this paper attempts to analyze the size and trend of foreign investment in the U.S. in the form of equities, bonds and bank lending during the period of 2001-2007. In addition, this paper assesses the determinants of foreign investment in the U.S., using the financial gravity model which includes an East Asian dummy as an explanatory variable. The results show that most East Asian countries have invested more in the U.S. than the optimal level suggested by the gravity model. Such an over-investment is more evident in long-term bond investment than in equity investment or bank lending. Thus, the results confirm that global imbalance does exist between East Asian countries and the U.S.

  5. Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2001-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

  6. Modeling of the global carbon cycle - isotopic data requirements

    Ciais, P.

    1994-01-01

    Isotopes are powerful tools to constrain carbon cycle models. For example, the combinations of the CO 2 and the 13 C budget allows to calculate the net-carbon fluxes between atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere. Observations of natural and bomb-produced radiocarbon allow to estimate gross carbon exchange fluxes between different reservoirs and to deduce time scales of carbon overturning in important reservoirs. 18 O in CO 2 is potentially a tool to make the deconvolution of C fluxes within the land biosphere (assimilation vs respirations). The scope of this article is to identify gaps in our present knowledge about isotopes in the light of their use as constraint for the global carbon cycle. In the following we will present a list of some future data requirements for carbon cycle models. (authors)

  7. Towards a Global Unified Model of Europa's Tenuous Atmosphere

    Plainaki, Christina; Cassidy, Tim A.; Shematovich, Valery I.; Milillo, Anna; Wurz, Peter; Vorburger, Audrey; Roth, Lorenz; Galli, André; Rubin, Martin; Blöcker, Aljona; Brandt, Pontus C.; Crary, Frank; Dandouras, Iannis; Jia, Xianzhe; Grassi, Davide; Hartogh, Paul; Lucchetti, Alice; McGrath, Melissa; Mangano, Valeria; Mura, Alessandro; Orsini, Stefano; Paranicas, Chris; Radioti, Aikaterini; Retherford, Kurt D.; Saur, Joachim; Teolis, Ben

    2018-02-01

    Despite the numerous modeling efforts of the past, our knowledge on the radiation-induced physical and chemical processes in Europa's tenuous atmosphere and on the exchange of material between the moon's surface and Jupiter's magnetosphere remains limited. In lack of an adequate number of in situ observations, the existence of a wide variety of models based on different scenarios and considerations has resulted in a fragmentary understanding of the interactions of the magnetospheric ion population with both the moon's icy surface and neutral gas envelope. Models show large discrepancy in the source and loss rates of the different constituents as well as in the determination of the spatial distribution of the atmosphere and its variation with time. The existence of several models based on very different approaches highlights the need of a detailed comparison among them with the final goal of developing a unified model of Europa's tenuous atmosphere. The availability to the science community of such a model could be of particular interest in view of the planning of the future mission observations (e.g., ESA's JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) mission, and NASA's Europa Clipper mission). We review the existing models of Europa's tenuous atmosphere and discuss each of their derived characteristics of the neutral environment. We also discuss discrepancies among different models and the assumptions of the plasma environment in the vicinity of Europa. A summary of the existing observations of both the neutral and the plasma environments at Europa is also presented. The characteristics of a global unified model of the tenuous atmosphere are, then, discussed. Finally, we identify needed future experimental work in laboratories and propose some suitable observation strategies for upcoming missions.

  8. False Memories for Suggestions: The Impact of Conceptual Elaboration

    Zaragoza, Maria S.; Mitchell, Karen J.; Payment, Kristie; Drivdahl, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Relatively little attention has been paid to the potential role that reflecting on the meaning and implications of suggested events (i.e., conceptual elaboration) might play in promoting the creation of false memories. Two experiments assessed whether encouraging repeated conceptual elaboration, would, like perceptual elaboration, increase false…

  9. Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko

    2016-04-01

    Modeling paradigms on global scales may need to be reconsidered in order to better utilize the power of massively parallel processing. For high computational efficiency with distributed memory, each core should work on a small subdomain of the full integration domain, and exchange only few rows of halo data with the neighbouring cores. Note that the described scenario strongly favors horizontally local discretizations. This is relatively easy to achieve in regional models. However, the spherical geometry complicates the problem. The latitude-longitude grid with local in space and explicit in time differencing has been an early choice and remained in use ever since. The problem with this method is that the grid size in the longitudinal direction tends to zero as the poles are approached. So, in addition to having unnecessarily high resolution near the poles, polar filtering has to be applied in order to use a time step of a reasonable size. However, the polar filtering requires transpositions involving extra communications as well as more computations. The spectral transform method and the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian schemes opened the way for application of spectral representation. With some variations, such techniques are currently dominating in global models. Unfortunately, the horizontal non-locality is inherent to the spectral representation and implicit time differencing, which inhibits scaling on a large number of cores. In this respect the lat-lon grid with polar filtering is a step in the right direction, particularly at high resolutions where the Legendre transforms become increasingly expensive. Other grids with reduced variability of grid distances, such as various versions of the cubed sphere and the hexagonal/pentagonal ("soccer ball") grids, were proposed almost fifty years ago. However, on these grids, large-scale (wavenumber 4 and 5) fictitious solutions ("grid imprinting") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that

  10. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  11. Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

    S. M. Griffies

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

  12. Synoptic, Global Mhd Model For The Solar Corona

    Cohen, Ofer; Sokolov, I. V.; Roussev, I. I.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2007-05-01

    The common techniques for mimic the solar corona heating and the solar wind acceleration in global MHD models are as follow. 1) Additional terms in the momentum and energy equations derived from the WKB approximation for the Alfv’en wave turbulence; 2) some empirical heat source in the energy equation; 3) a non-uniform distribution of the polytropic index, γ, used in the energy equation. In our model, we choose the latter approach. However, in order to get a more realistic distribution of γ, we use the empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model to constrain the MHD solution. The WSA model provides the distribution of the asymptotic solar wind speed from the potential field approximation; therefore it also provides the distribution of the kinetic energy. Assuming that far from the Sun the total energy is dominated by the energy of the bulk motion and assuming the conservation of the Bernoulli integral, we can trace the total energy along a magnetic field line to the solar surface. On the surface the gravity is known and the kinetic energy is negligible. Therefore, we can get the surface distribution of γ as a function of the final speed originating from this point. By interpolation γ to spherically uniform value on the source surface, we use this spatial distribution of γ in the energy equation to obtain a self-consistent, steady state MHD solution for the solar corona. We present the model result for different Carrington Rotations.

  13. The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

    Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

    2016-12-01

    The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

  14. Accelerating the Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) model on Intel Xeon Phi processors

    Wang, Hui; Chen, Huansheng; Wu, Qizhong; Lin, Junming; Chen, Xueshun; Xie, Xinwei; Wang, Rongrong; Tang, Xiao; Wang, Zifa

    2017-01-01

    The GNAQPMS model is the global version of the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modelling System (NAQPMS), which is a multi-scale chemical transport model used for air quality forecast and atmospheric environmental research. In this study, we present our work of porting and optimizing the GNAQPMS model on the second generation Intel Xeon Phi processor codename “Knights Landing” (KNL). Compared with the first generation Xeon Phi coprocessor, KNL introduced many new hardware features such as a boo...

  15. Development and evaluation of global radon transport model

    Kojima, H.; Nagano, K.

    2003-01-01

    The radioactive noble gas Radon-222 ( 222 Rn) is chemically inert and is removed only by radioactive decay (T1/2=3.8 d). Its primary source is uniformly distributed over the continents and the ocean represents a secondary source of atmospheric 222 Rn. The strong contrast in source strength between continents and the ocean makes 222 Rn an ideal marker of continental air masses. Because of its simple properties, the temporal and spatial distribution of 222 Rn in the troposphere is straightforward to simulate by means of atmospheric transport models. The simulation provides an intuitive visualization of the complex transport characteristics and more definite proof of phenomenon. In this paper, we present the results of an exploratory study, in which we investigated the performance of a three-dimensional transport model of the global troposphere in simulating the long range transport of 222 Rn. The transport equation has been solved by a numerical procedure based on some boundary conditions. The model structure which we have originally developed, has a horizontal resolution of 2.5deg in latitude and 2.5deg in longitude, and 10 layers in the vertical dimension. The basic computational time step used in the model runs was set to 5 min. The simulations described in this article were performed by means of a transport model driven by global objective analytical data of a time resolution of 6 h, supplied by the Japan Meteorological Agency. We focus on the west of North Pacific Ocean, were the influence of air pollution from an Asian Continent and the Japan Islands was received. For simulation experiments, radon data from some shipboard measurements on the North Pacific Ocean have been used in the present study. Figure shows time series of model prediction with different latitude distributions of radon exhalation rate and measured radon data. We find that our model consistently produce the observation. We will discuss the characteristics of the temporal and special

  16. Towards accounting for dissolved iron speciation in global ocean models

    A. Tagliabue

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The trace metal iron (Fe is now routinely included in state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry models (OGCBMs because of its key role as a limiting nutrient in regions of the world ocean important for carbon cycling and air-sea CO2 exchange. However, the complexities of the seawater Fe cycle, which impact its speciation and bioavailability, are simplified in such OGCBMs due to gaps in understanding and to avoid high computational costs. In a similar fashion to inorganic carbon speciation, we outline a means by which the complex speciation of Fe can be included in global OGCBMs in a reasonably cost-effective manner. We construct an Fe speciation model based on hypothesised relationships between rate constants and environmental variables (temperature, light, oxygen, pH, salinity and assumptions regarding the binding strengths of Fe complexing organic ligands and test hypotheses regarding their distributions. As a result, we find that the global distribution of different Fe species is tightly controlled by spatio-temporal environmental variability and the distribution of Fe binding ligands. Impacts on bioavailable Fe are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding which Fe species are bioavailable and how those species vary in space and time. When forced by representations of future ocean circulation and climate we find large changes to the speciation of Fe governed by pH mediated changes to redox kinetics. We speculate that these changes may exert selective pressure on phytoplankton Fe uptake strategies in the future ocean. In future work, more information on the sources and sinks of ocean Fe ligands, their bioavailability, the cycling of colloidal Fe species and kinetics of Fe-surface coordination reactions would be invaluable. We hope our modeling approach can provide a means by which new observations of Fe speciation can be tested against hypotheses of the processes present in governing the ocean Fe cycle in an

  17. Global Modeling of Internal Tides Within an Eddying Ocean General Circulation Model

    2012-05-31

    paper aooo not violate: any Oisclosur~,;·of trade• secrets or suggestions of outside individuals on::oncams whiCh have· beE !n communicated 1.o...fully three- dimensional global ocean circulation model, we will provide an internal tide capability everywhere, and allow nested models to include

  18. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    Jardine, Sunny L; Siikamäki, Juha V

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO 2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO 2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha −1 ) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha −1 ). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological

  19. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    Jardine, Sunny L.; Siikamäki, Juha V.

    2014-10-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha-1) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha-1). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological predictors, e.g. to

  20. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  1. Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

    Athron, Peter; Balázs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Rogan, Christopher; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin

    2017-12-01

    We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos.

  2. Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

    Athron, Peter [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Balazs, Csaba [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Bringmann, Torsten; Dal, Lars A.; Krislock, Abram; Raklev, Are [University of Oslo, Department of Physics, Oslo (Norway); Buckley, Andy [University of Glasgow, SUPA, School of Physics and Astronomy, Glasgow (United Kingdom); Chrzaszcz, Marcin [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); H. Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Conrad, Jan; Edsjoe, Joakim; Farmer, Ben [AlbaNova University Centre, Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Stockholm University, Department of Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Cornell, Jonathan M. [McGill University, Department of Physics, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jackson, Paul; White, Martin [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); University of Adelaide, Department of Physics, Adelaide, SA (Australia); Kvellestad, Anders; Savage, Christopher [NORDITA, Stockholm (Sweden); Mahmoudi, Farvah [Univ Lyon, Univ Lyon 1, CNRS, ENS de Lyon, Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon UMR5574, Saint-Genis-Laval (France); Theoretical Physics Department, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Martinez, Gregory D. [University of California, Physics and Astronomy Department, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Putze, Antje [LAPTh, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Rogan, Christopher [Harvard University, Department of Physics, Cambridge, MA (United States); Ruiz de Austri, Roberto [IFIC-UV/CSIC, Instituto de Fisica Corpuscular, Valencia (Spain); Saavedra, Aldo [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); The University of Sydney, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies, Centre for Translational Data Science, School of Physics, Camperdown, NSW (Australia); Scott, Pat [Imperial College London, Department of Physics, Blackett Laboratory, London (United Kingdom); Serra, Nicola [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); Weniger, Christoph [University of Amsterdam, GRAPPA, Institute of Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Collaboration: The GAMBIT Collaboration

    2017-12-15

    We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos. (orig.)

  3. Revisited global drift fluid model for linear devices

    Reiser, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    The problem of energy conserving global drift fluid simulations is revisited. It is found that for the case of cylindrical plasmas in a homogenous magnetic field, a straightforward reformulation is possible avoiding simplifications leading to energetic inconsistencies. The particular new feature is the rigorous treatment of the polarisation drift by a generalization of the vorticity equation. The resulting set of model equations contains previous formulations as limiting cases and is suitable for efficient numerical techniques. Examples of applications on studies of plasma blobs and its impact on plasma target interaction are presented. The numerical studies focus on the appearance of plasma blobs and intermittent transport and its consequences on the release of sputtered target materials in the plasma. Intermittent expulsion of particles in radial direction can be observed and it is found that although the neutrals released from the target show strong fluctuations in their propagation into the plasma column, the overall effect on time averaged profiles is negligible for the conditions considered. In addition, the numerical simulations are utilised to perform an a-posteriori assessment of the magnitude of energetic inconsistencies in previously used simplified models. It is found that certain popular approximations, in particular by the use of simplified vorticity equations, do not significantly affect energetics. However, popular model simplifications with respect to parallel advection are found to provide significant deterioration of the model consistency.

  4. Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

    Schaefer, Martin

    2012-07-01

    The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

  5. The Glacial BuzzSaw, Isostasy, and Global Crustal Models

    Levander, A.; Oncken, O.; Niu, F.

    2015-12-01

    The glacial buzzsaw hypothesis predicts that maximum elevations in orogens at high latitudes are depressed relative to temperate latitudes, as maximum elevation and hypsography of glaciated orogens are functions of the glacial equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and the modern and last glacial maximum (LGM) snowlines. As a consequence crustal thickness, density, or both must change with increasing latitude to maintain isostatic balance. For Airy compensation crustal thickness should decrease toward polar latitudes, whereas for Pratt compensation crustal densities should increase. For similar convergence rates, higher latitude orogens should have higher grade, and presumably higher density rocks in the crustal column due to more efficient glacial erosion. We have examined a number of global and regional crustal models to see if these predictions appear in the models. Crustal thickness is straightforward to examine, crustal density less so. The different crustal models generally agree with one another, but do show some major differences. We used a standard tectonic classification scheme of the crust for data selection. The globally averaged orogens show crustal thicknesses that decrease toward high latitudes, almost reflecting topography, in both the individual crustal models and the models averaged together. The most convincing is the western hemisphere cordillera, where elevations and crustal thicknesses decrease toward the poles, and also toward lower latitudes (the equatorial minimum is at ~12oN). The elevation differences and Airy prediction of crustal thickness changes are in reasonable agreement in the North American Cordillera, but in South America the observed crustal thickness change is larger than the Airy prediction. The Alpine-Himalayan chain shows similar trends, however the strike of the chain makes interpretation ambiguous. We also examined cratons with ice sheets during the last glacial period to see if continental glaciation also thins the crust toward

  6. ACE2 Global Digital Elevation Model : User Analysis

    Smith, R. G.; Berry, P. A. M.; Benveniste, J.

    2013-12-01

    Altimeter Corrected Elevations 2 (ACE2), first released in October 2009, is the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) created by fusing the high accuracy of over 100 million altimeter retracked height estimates, derived primarily from the ERS-1 Geodetic Mission, with the high frequency content available within the near-global Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. This novel ACE2 GDEM is freely available at 3”, 9”, 30” and 5' and has been distributed via the web to over 680 subscribers. This paper presents the results of a detailed analysis of geographical distribution of subscribed users, along with fields of study and potential uses. Investigations have also been performed to determine the most popular spatial resolutions and the impact these have on the scope of data downloaded. The analysis has shown that, even though the majority of users have come from Europe and America, a significant number of website hits have been received from South America, Africa and Asia. Registered users also vary widely, from research institutions and major companies down to individual hobbyists looking at data for single projects.

  7. Grief elaboration in families with handicapped member.

    Calandra, C; Finocchiaro, G; Raciti, L; Alberti, A

    1992-01-01

    Families with handicapped member seem to follow the same five stages (rejection and isolation, anger, dealing with the problem, depression, acceptance) of Kubler-Ross grief elaboration theory while dealing with the narcissistic wound of a handicapped child. Some of these families show a block in one of the stages. The effort of psychotherapy is to remove the block and let them reach the last stage. In this paper families under systemic psychotherapeutic treatment are analyzed, who had in common the birth of a child with low or modest invalidating signs and psychotic or autistic features. The families structure did not show the characteristics of a psychotic family. Nevertheless either one or both parents ignored the evidence of their child disease and they built a "disease-incongrous" wait around the child, trying to push away the painful reality. The authors explain the importance of this approach for the improvement of the autistic traits.

  8. A model of global citizenship: antecedents and outcomes.

    Reysen, Stephen; Katzarska-Miller, Iva

    2013-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, exposure to global cultures affords individuals opportunities to develop global identities. In two studies, we examine the antecedents and outcomes of identifying with a superordinate identity--global citizen. Global citizenship is defined as awareness, caring, and embracing cultural diversity while promoting social justice and sustainability, coupled with a sense of responsibility to act. Prior theory and research suggest that being aware of one's connection with others in the world (global awareness) and embedded in settings that value global citizenship (normative environment) lead to greater identification with global citizens. Furthermore, theory and research suggest that when global citizen identity is salient, greater identification is related to adherence to the group's content (i.e., prosocial values and behaviors). Results of the present set of studies showed that global awareness (knowledge and interconnectedness with others) and one's normative environment (friends and family support global citizenship) predicted identification with global citizens, and global citizenship predicted prosocial values of intergroup empathy, valuing diversity, social justice, environmental sustainability, intergroup helping, and a felt responsibility to act for the betterment of the world. The relationship between antecedents (normative environment and global awareness) and outcomes (prosocial values) was mediated by identification with global citizens. We discuss the relationship between the present results and other research findings in psychology, the implications of global citizenship for other academic domains, and future avenues of research. Global citizenship highlights the unique effect of taking a global perspective on a multitude of topics relevant to the psychology of everyday actions, environments, and identity.

  9. Global transportation cost modeling for long-range planning

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to a significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost estimating model, known as the Ten-year Plan Transportation Cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for (a) recovering and processing of the wastes, (b)packaging the wastes for transport, and (c) the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order of magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing and undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements

  10. Global transportation cost modeling for long range planning

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost-estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost-estimating model, known as the TEn-year Plan TRAnsportation cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for recovering and processing of the wastes, packaging the wastes for transport, and the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing nd undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements. (authors)

  11. Modeling Cancer Metastasis using Global, Quantitative and Integrative Network Biology

    Schoof, Erwin; Erler, Janine

    understanding of molecular processes which are fundamental to tumorigenesis. In Article 1, we propose a novel framework for how cancer mutations can be studied by taking into account their effect at the protein network level. In Article 2, we demonstrate how global, quantitative data on phosphorylation dynamics...... can be generated using MS, and how this can be modeled using a computational framework for deciphering kinase-substrate dynamics. This framework is described in depth in Article 3, and covers the design of KinomeXplorer, which allows the prediction of kinases responsible for modulating observed...... phosphorylation dynamics in a given biological sample. In Chapter III, we move into Integrative Network Biology, where, by combining two fundamental technologies (MS & NGS), we can obtain more in-depth insights into the links between cellular phenotype and genotype. Article 4 describes the proof...

  12. Modelling of the Global Geopotential Energy & Stress Field

    Schiffer, Christian; Nielsen, S.B.

    Lateral density and topography variations yield in and important contribution to the lithospheric stress field. The leading quantity is the Geopotential Energy, the integrated lithostatic pressure in a rock column. The horizontal gradient of this quantity is related to horizontal stresses through...... the Equations of equilibrium of stresses. The Geopotential Energy furthermore can be linearly related to the Geoid under assumption of local isostasy. Satellite Geoid measurements contain, however, also non-isostatic deeper mantle responses of long wavelength. Unfortunately, high-pass filtering of the Geoid...... flow in the presence of local isostasy and a steady state geotherm. Subsequently we use a FEM code to solve the Equations of equilibrium of stresses for a three dimensional elastic shell. The modelled results are shown and compared with the global stress field and other publications....

  13. Global stability of a vaccination model with immigration

    Sarah Henshaw

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We study an SVIR model of disease transmission with immigration into all four classes. Vaccinated individuals may only receive partial immunity to the disease, giving a leaky vaccine. The incidence function permits a nonlinear response to the number of infectives, so that mass action and saturating incidence are included as special cases. Because of the immigration of infected individuals, there is no disease-free equilibrium and hence no basic reproduction number. We use the Brouwer Fixed Point Theorem to show that an endemic equilibrium exists and the Poincare-Hopf Theorem to show that it is unique. We show the equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable by using a Lyapunov function.

  14. A Collaboration Service Model for a Global Port Cluster

    Keith K.T. Toh

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The importance of port clusters to a global city may be viewed from a number of perspectives. The development of port clusters and economies of agglomeration and their contribution to a regional economy is underpinned by information and physical infrastructure that facilitates collaboration between business entities within the cluster. The maturity of technologies providing portals, web and middleware services provides an opportunity to push the boundaries of contemporary service reference models and service catalogues to what the authors propose to be "collaboration services". Servicing port clusters, portal engineers of the future must consider collaboration services to benefit a region. Particularly, service orchestration through a "public user portal" must gain better utilisation of publically owned infrastructure, to share knowledge and collaborate among organisations through information systems.

  15. Elaboration, characterisation and modelling of screen-printed La0.8Sr0.2MnO{sub 3} cathodes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell; Elaboration, caracterisation et modelisation de cathode serigraphiee, La0.8Sr0.2MnO3, pour pile a combustible SOFC

    Caillol, N.

    2006-03-15

    The properties of LSM screen-printed cathodes on YSZ electrolytes and the modelling of oxygen reduction have been studied. A bibliographic review of published works on LSM and LSM/YSZ interface reveals the lack of consensus over the mechanism proposed between oxygen and LSM. The different theoretic models possible and their associated kinetic laws are presented to serve as the basis for the kinetic modelling. Microstructural characterizations proved the adaptability of the screen-printing technique for making electrodes. The layers are stable in time and well reproducible. Their microstructure is homogenous and regular with a porosity of 0.6. Physico-chemical characterizations were carried out. Infra-red spectrometry analysis and thermo-programmed desorption have shown the existence of different kinds of oxygen-adsorbed species on LSM powder. A calorimetric study has revealed a change in the quantity of heat released during oxygen adsorption as a function of temperature. By XPS analysis on screen-printed layers, important strontium segregation was observed depending on pressure, temperature and polarisation conditions. From electrochemical characterizations made by impedance spectroscopy, three resistive contributions have been identified. Only the low frequency contribution, which is the only pressure sensitive contribution, was considered to correspond to an electrode phenomenon. Following a methodical study of the different modelling hypothesis, a mechanism for the cathodic reaction was obtained. The proposed model is complex. It is composed of three conductivity paths running in parallel (two surface paths and one bulk path). These paths involve two different oxygen species and their preponderance depends on pressure, temperature and polarisation conditions. A study of water vapour influence completes this work, to understand its impact on the cathode electrical performance. The benefits brought by water vapour are not linked to a direct catalytic effect, as it

  16. The development of radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean

    Nakano, M.; Watanabe, H.; Katagiri, H.

    2000-01-01

    The radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean has been developing in order to assess the long-term behavior of radioactive materials for discharge from nuclear facility. The model system consists of two parts. One is to calculate current velocity; and the other is for particle chasing. Both systems are executed by Macintosh personal computer. A lot of techniques to estimate ocean current velocity were investigated in geophysical field. The robust diagnosis model advocated by Sarmiento and Bryan was applied to build the numerical calculation system for getting the current velocity field in global scale. The latitudinal and longitudinal lattices were 2 degrees each and the number of vertical layer was 15. The movement of radioactive materials by current and diffusion were calculated using the particle chasing system. The above-mentioned current velocity field and the initial particle positions at will were read by the system. The movement of a particle was calculated using the interpolated current data step by step. The diffusion of a particle was calculated by random walk method. The model was verified by using the fallout data from atmospheric nuclear test. Yearly and latitudinal fallout data was adopted from UNSCEAR1977. The calculation result was compared with the observation data that includes total amount and vertical profile of Cs-137 and Pu-239,240 in the North Pacific Ocean. The result of the verification was agreed with the following general knowledge. Though the fallout amount between 40N and 50N was the biggest in the world, the amount in the seawater between 40N and 50N was smaller than that in south of 40N because of horizontal transportation, which carried water from north to south. As for vertical profile, Cs-137 could be accurately calculated except the surface layer. However the observation peak of Pu-239,240 existed deeper than the calculation peak. This model could calculate the vertical profile of Cs-137 because most of Cs exists as dissolved

  17. Modelling 1-minute directional observations of the global irradiance.

    Thejll, Peter; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Direct and diffuse irradiances from the sky has been collected at 1-minute intervals for about a year from the experimental station at the Technical University of Denmark for the IEA project "Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting". These data were gathered by pyrheliometers tracking the Sun, as well as with apertured pyranometers gathering 1/8th and 1/16th of the light from the sky in 45 degree azimuthal ranges pointed around the compass. The data are gathered in order to develop detailed models of the potentially available solar energy and its variations at high temporal resolution in order to gain a more detailed understanding of the solar resource. This is important for a better understanding of the sub-grid scale cloud variation that cannot be resolved with climate and weather models. It is also important for optimizing the operation of active solar energy systems such as photovoltaic plants and thermal solar collector arrays, and for passive solar energy and lighting to buildings. We present regression-based modelling of the observed data, and focus, here, on the statistical properties of the model fits. Using models based on the one hand on what is found in the literature and on physical expectations, and on the other hand on purely statistical models, we find solutions that can explain up to 90% of the variance in global radiation. The models leaning on physical insights include terms for the direct solar radiation, a term for the circum-solar radiation, a diffuse term and a term for the horizon brightening/darkening. The purely statistical model is found using data- and formula-validation approaches picking model expressions from a general catalogue of possible formulae. The method allows nesting of expressions, and the results found are dependent on and heavily constrained by the cross-validation carried out on statistically independent testing and training data-sets. Slightly better fits -- in terms of variance explained -- is found using the purely

  18. Transport of nutrients from land to sea: Global modeling approaches and uncertainty analyses

    Beusen, A.H.W.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis presents four examples of global models developed as part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). They describe different components of global biogeochemical cycles of the nutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silicon (Si), with a focus on approaches to

  19. Understanding Global Change (UGC) as a Unifying Conceptual Framework for Teaching Ecology: Using UGC in a High School Biology Program to Integrate Earth Science and Biology, and to Demonstrate the Value of Modeling Global Systems in Promoting Conceptual Learning

    Levine, J.; Bean, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Global change science is ideal for NGSS-informed teaching, but presents a serious challenge to K-12 educators because it is complex and interdisciplinary- combining earth science, biology, chemistry, and physics. Global systems are themselves complex. Adding anthropogenic influences on those systems creates a formidable list of topics - greenhouse effect, climate change, nitrogen enrichment, introduced species, land-use change among them - which are often presented as a disconnected "laundry list" of "facts." This complexity, combined with public and mass-media scientific illiteracy, leaves global change science vulnerable to misrepresentation and politicization, creating additional challenges to teachers in public schools. Ample stand-alone, one-off, online resources, many of them excellent, are (to date) underutilized by teachers in the high school science course taken by most students: biology. The Understanding Global Change project (UGC) from the UC Berkeley Museum of Paleontology has created a conceptual framework that organizes, connects, and explains global systems, human and non-human drivers of change in those systems, and measurable changes in those systems. This organization and framework employ core ideas, crosscutting concepts, structure/function relationships, and system models in a unique format that facilitates authentic understanding, rather than memorization. This system serves as an organizing framework for the entire ecology unit of a forthcoming mainstream high school biology program. The UGC system model is introduced up front with its core informational graphic. The model is elaborated, step by step, by adding concepts and processes as they are introduced and explained in each chapter. The informational graphic is thus used in several ways: to organize material as it is presented, to summarize topics in each chapter and put them in perspective, and for review and critical thinking exercises that supplement the usual end-of-chapter lists of

  20. Design and implementation of new design of numerical experiments for non linear models; Conception et mise en oeuvre de nouvelles methodes d'elaboration de plans d'experiences pour l'apprentissage de modeles non lineaires

    Gazut, St

    2007-03-15

    This thesis addresses the problem of the construction of surrogate models in numerical simulation. Whenever numerical experiments are costly, the simulation model is complex and difficult to use. It is important then to select the numerical experiments as efficiently as possible in order to minimize their number. In statistics, the selection of experiments is known as optimal experimental design. In the context of numerical simulation where no measurement uncertainty is present, we describe an alternative approach based on statistical learning theory and re-sampling techniques. The surrogate models are constructed using neural networks and the generalization error is estimated by leave-one-out, cross-validation and bootstrap. It is shown that the bootstrap can control the over-fitting and extend the concept of leverage for non linear in their parameters surrogate models. The thesis describes an iterative method called LDR for Learner Disagreement from experiment Re-sampling, based on active learning using several surrogate models constructed on bootstrap samples. The method consists in adding new experiments where the predictors constructed from bootstrap samples disagree most. We compare the LDR method with other methods of experimental design such as D-optimal selection. (author)

  1. Global emissions and models of photochemically active compounds

    Penner, J.E.; Atherton, C.S.; Graedel, T.E.

    1993-01-01

    Anthropogenic emissions from industrial activity, fossil fuel combustion, and biomass burning are now known to be large enough (relative to natural sources) to perturb the chemistry of vast regions of the troposphere. A goal of the IGAC Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) is to provide authoritative and reliable emissions inventories on a 1 degree x 1 degree grid. When combined with atmospheric photochemical models, these high quality emissions inventories may be used to predict the concentrations of major photochemical products. Comparison of model results with measurements of pertinent species allows us to understand whether there are major shortcomings in our understanding of tropospheric photochemistry, the budgets and transport of trace species, and their effects in the atmosphere. Through this activity, we are building the capability to make confident predictions of the future consequences of anthropogenic emissions. This paper compares IGAC recommended emissions inventories for reactive nitrogen and sulfur dioxide to those that have been in use previously. We also present results from the three-dimensional LLNL atmospheric chemistry model that show how emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides might potentially affect tropospheric ozone and OH concentrations and how emissions of anthropogenic sulfur increase sulfate aerosol loadings

  2. Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea

    1996-01-01

    The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost

  3. A GLOBAL MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY MODEL FOR MAGNETIC CLOUDS. II

    Hidalgo, M. A., E-mail: miguel.hidalgo@uah.es [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Alcala, Apartado 20, E-28871 Alcala de Henares, Madrid (Spain)

    2013-04-01

    In the present work, we extensively used our analytical approach to the global magnetic field topology of magnetic clouds (MCs), introduced in a previous paper, in order to show its potential and to study its physical consistency. The model assumes toroidal topology with a non-uniform (variable maximum radius) cross-section along them. Moreover, it has a non-force-free character and also includes the expansion of its cross-section. As is shown, the model allows us, first, to analyze MC magnetic structures-determining their physical parameters-with a variety of magnetic field shapes, and second, to reconstruct their relative orientation in the interplanetary medium from the observations obtained by several spacecraft. Therefore, multipoint spacecraft observations give the opportunity to infer the structure of this large-scale magnetic flux rope structure in the solar wind. For these tasks, we use data from Helios (A and B), STEREO (A and B), and Advanced Composition Explorer. We show that the proposed analytical model can explain quite well the topology of several MCs in the interplanetary medium and is a good starting point for understanding the physical mechanisms under these phenomena.

  4. Teach for All: Storytelling "Shared Solutions" and Scaling Global Reform

    Ahmann, Chloe

    2015-01-01

    "Teach For All" is a global network of state-based organizations that translate "Teach For America's" market model of school reform into moral projects of nation-building abroad. Referring to this challenge as one of "scaling" the organization, its leaders elaborate a theory of change that hinges on replicability: in…

  5. Tradeoff between robustness and elaboration in carotenoid networks produces cycles of avian color diversification.

    Badyaev, Alexander V; Morrison, Erin S; Belloni, Virginia; Sanderson, Michael J

    2015-08-20

    Resolution of the link between micro- and macroevolution calls for comparing both processes on the same deterministic landscape, such as genomic, metabolic or fitness networks. We apply this perspective to the evolution of carotenoid pigmentation that produces spectacular diversity in avian colors and show that basic structural properties of the underlying carotenoid metabolic network are reflected in global patterns of elaboration and diversification in color displays. Birds color themselves by consuming and metabolizing several dietary carotenoids from the environment. Such fundamental dependency on the most upstream external compounds should intrinsically constrain sustained evolutionary elongation of multi-step metabolic pathways needed for color elaboration unless the metabolic network gains robustness - the ability to synthesize the same carotenoid from an additional dietary starting point. We found that gains and losses of metabolic robustness were associated with evolutionary cycles of elaboration and stasis in expressed carotenoids in birds. Lack of metabolic robustness constrained lineage's metabolic explorations to the immediate biochemical vicinity of their ecologically distinct dietary carotenoids, whereas gains of robustness repeatedly resulted in sustained elongation of metabolic pathways on evolutionary time scales and corresponding color elaboration. The structural link between length and robustness in metabolic pathways may explain periodic convergence of phylogenetically distant and ecologically distinct species in expressed carotenoid pigmentation; account for stasis in carotenoid colors in some ecological lineages; and show how the connectivity of the underlying metabolic network provides a mechanistic link between microevolutionary elaboration and macroevolutionary diversification.

  6. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  7. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  8. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  9. Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

    Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

  10. Global carbon monoxide cycle: Modeling and data analysis

    Arellano, Avelino F., Jr.

    The overarching goal of this dissertation is to develop robust, spatially and temporally resolved CO sources, using global chemical transport modeling, CO measurements from Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory (CMDL) and Measurement of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT), under the framework of Bayesian synthesis inversion. To rigorously quantify the CO sources, I conducted five sets of inverse analyses, with each set investigating specific methodological and scientific issues. The first two inverse analyses separately explored two different CO observations to estimate CO sources by region and sector. Under a range of scenarios relating to inverse methodology and data quality issues, top-down estimates using CMDL CO surface and MOPITT CO remote-sensed measurements show consistent results particularly on a significantly large fossil fuel/biofuel (FFBF) emission in East Asia than present bottom-up estimates. The robustness of this estimate is strongly supported by forward and inverse modeling studies in the region particularly from TRansport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) campaign. The use of high-resolution measurement for the first time in CO inversion also draws attention to a methodology issue that the range of estimates from the scenarios is larger than posterior uncertainties, suggesting that estimate uncertainties may be underestimated. My analyses highlight the utility of top-down approach to provide additional constraints on present global estimates by also pointing to other discrepancies including apparent underestimation of FFBF from Africa/Latin America and biomass burning (BIOM) sources in Africa, southeast Asia and north-Latin America, indicating inconsistencies on our current understanding of fuel use and land-use patterns in these regions. Inverse analysis using MOPITT is extended to determine the extent of MOPITT information and estimate monthly regional CO sources. A major finding, which is consistent with other

  11. TOWARD A GLOBAL EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF PROTOPLANETARY DISKS

    Bai, Xue-Ning, E-mail: xbai@cfa.harvard.edu [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., MS-51, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2016-04-20

    A global picture of the evolution  of protoplanetary disks (PPDs) is key to understanding almost every aspect of planet formation, where standard α-disk models have been continually employed for their simplicity. In the meantime, disk mass loss has been conventionally attributed to photoevaporation, which controls disk dispersal. However, a paradigm shift toward accretion driven by magnetized disk winds has taken place in recent years, thanks to studies of non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic effects in PPDs. I present a framework of global PPD evolution aiming to incorporate these advances, highlighting the role of wind-driven accretion and wind mass loss. Disk evolution is found to be largely dominated by wind-driven processes, and viscous spreading is suppressed. The timescale of disk evolution is controlled primarily by the amount of external magnetic flux threading the disks, and how rapidly the disk loses the flux. Rapid disk dispersal can be achieved if the disk is able to hold most of its magnetic flux during the evolution. In addition, because wind launching requires a sufficient level of ionization at the disk surface (mainly via external far-UV (FUV) radiation), wind kinematics is also affected by the FUV penetration depth and disk geometry. For a typical disk lifetime of a few million years, the disk loses approximately the same amount of mass through the wind as through accretion onto the protostar, and most of the wind mass loss proceeds from the outer disk via a slow wind. Fractional wind mass loss increases with increasing disk lifetime. Significant wind mass loss likely substantially enhances the dust-to-gas mass ratio and promotes planet formation.

  12. TOWARD A GLOBAL EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF PROTOPLANETARY DISKS

    Bai, Xue-Ning

    2016-01-01

    A global picture of the evolution  of protoplanetary disks (PPDs) is key to understanding almost every aspect of planet formation, where standard α-disk models have been continually employed for their simplicity. In the meantime, disk mass loss has been conventionally attributed to photoevaporation, which controls disk dispersal. However, a paradigm shift toward accretion driven by magnetized disk winds has taken place in recent years, thanks to studies of non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic effects in PPDs. I present a framework of global PPD evolution aiming to incorporate these advances, highlighting the role of wind-driven accretion and wind mass loss. Disk evolution is found to be largely dominated by wind-driven processes, and viscous spreading is suppressed. The timescale of disk evolution is controlled primarily by the amount of external magnetic flux threading the disks, and how rapidly the disk loses the flux. Rapid disk dispersal can be achieved if the disk is able to hold most of its magnetic flux during the evolution. In addition, because wind launching requires a sufficient level of ionization at the disk surface (mainly via external far-UV (FUV) radiation), wind kinematics is also affected by the FUV penetration depth and disk geometry. For a typical disk lifetime of a few million years, the disk loses approximately the same amount of mass through the wind as through accretion onto the protostar, and most of the wind mass loss proceeds from the outer disk via a slow wind. Fractional wind mass loss increases with increasing disk lifetime. Significant wind mass loss likely substantially enhances the dust-to-gas mass ratio and promotes planet formation

  13. The ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) -for societal benefit -

    Hato, M.; Tsu, H.; Tachikawa, T.; Abrams, M.; Bailey, B.

    2009-12-01

    The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan and the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the agreement of contribution to GEOSS and a public release was started on June 29th. ASTER GDEM can be downloaded to users from the Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center (ERSDAC) of Japan and NASA’s Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) free of charge. The ASTER instrument was built by METI and launched onboard NASA’s Terra spacecraft in December 1999. It has an along-track stereoscopic capability using its near infrared spectral band (NIR) and its nadir-viewing and backward-viewing telescopes to acquire stereo image data with a base-to-height ratio of 0.6. The ASTER GDEM was produced by applying newly-developed automated algorithm to more than 1.2 million NIR data Produced DEMs of all scene data was stacked after cloud masking and finally partitioned into 1° x 1°unit (called ‘tile’) data for convenience of distribution and handling by users. Before start of public distribution, ERSDAC and USGS/NASA together with many volunteers did validation and characterization by using a preliminary product of the ASTER GDEM. As a result of validation, METI and NASA evaluated that Version 1 of the ASTER GDEM has enough quality to be used as “experimental” or “research grade” data and consequently decided to release it. The ASTER GDEM covering almost all land area of from 83N to 83S on the earth represents as an important contribution to the global earth observation community. We will show our effort of development of ASTER GDEM and its accuracy and character.

  14. Elaboration of an Elasto-Plastic Model for High Porosity Chalks. Application to the Compaction of Petroleum Reservoirs Elaboration d'un modèle de comportement élasto-plastique pour les craies très poreuses. Application à la compaction des réservoirs pétroliers

    Shahrour I.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study of the compaction of petroleum reservoirs applied to very porous carbonate rocks such as chalk. In production estimates made in reservoir engineering, the processing of the mechanical problem is often greatly simplified. Good modelling of how materials behave gives special consideration to the influence of mechanical deformations on fluid recovery. After an analysis of the mechanical behaviour of very porous chalks, an elastoplastic behaviour model is derived so as to reproduce the principal experimental observations. This behaviour model can then be used to perform local simulations of the mechanical behaviour of a reservoir under- going depletion and thus to demonstrate the importance of the stress path and the initial stress state on the deformation of materials and hence on the recovery rate. Dans les applications pétrolières, les études de la compaction des roches réservoirs interviennent dans l'estimation des quantités de fluide récupérables et de la subsidence induite par la déplétion du champ de production. Dans la première partie du travail, nous montrons qu'à partir de l'équation linéarisée de la conservation de la masse de fluide, il est possible d'exprimer un taux de récupération distinguant les contributions respectives du fluide et de la roche. En ingénierie de réservoirs, l'hypothèse d'un chemin de contrainte prépondérant dans le milieu de production permet d'exprimer la contribution de la déformation de la roche au moyen de la compressibilité volumique des pores selon ce chemin. Le taux de récupération obtenu est alors dépendant du chemin de contrainte. Lorsque le chemin de contrainte dans le réservoir n'est pas homogène, il est alors nécessaire de connaître la loi de comportement mécanique du matériau étudié. Dans le cas des carbonates très poreux, nous désirons montrer l'influence liée au choix du chemin de contrainte sur les estimations obtenues par une m

  15. A global water supply reservoir yield model with uncertainty analysis

    Kuria, Faith W; Vogel, Richard M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the reliability and uncertainty associated with water supply yields derived from surface water reservoirs is central for planning purposes. Using a global dataset of monthly river discharge, we introduce a generalized model for estimating the mean and variance of water supply yield, Y, expected from a reservoir for a prespecified reliability, R, and storage capacity, S assuming a flow record of length n. The generalized storage–reliability–yield (SRY) relationships reported here have numerous water resource applications ranging from preliminary water supply investigations, to economic and climate change impact assessments. An example indicates how our generalized SRY relationship can be combined with a hydroclimatic model to determine the impact of climate change on surface reservoir water supply yields. We also document that the variability of estimates of water supply yield are invariant to characteristics of the reservoir system, including its storage capacity and reliability. Standardized metrics of the variability of water supply yields are shown to depend only on the sample size of the inflows and the statistical characteristics of the inflow series. (paper)

  16. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Jason G Bragg

    Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying

  17. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2010-03-10

    Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

  18. The global mean sea surface model WHU2013

    Taoyong Jin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The mean sea surface (MSS model is an important reference for the study of charting datum and sea level change. A global MSS model named WHU2013, with 2′ × 2′ spatial resolution between 80°S and 84°N, is established in this paper by combining nearly 20 years of multi-satellite altimetric data that include Topex/Poseidon (T/P, Jason-1, Jason-2, ERS-2, ENVISAT and GFO Exact Repeat Mission (ERM data, ERS-1/168, Jason-1/C geodetic mission data and Cryosat-2 low resolution mode (LRM data. All the ERM data are adjusted by the collinear method to achieve the mean along-track sea surface height (SSH, and the combined dataset of T/P, Jason-1 and Jason-2 from 1993 to 2012 after collinear adjustment is used as the reference data. The sea level variations in the non-ERM data (geodetic mission data and LRM data are mainly investigated, and a combined method is proposed to correct the sea level variations between 66°S and 66°N by along-track sea level variation time series and beyond 66°S or 66°N by seasonal sea level variations. In the crossover adjustment between multi-altimetric data, a stepwise method is used to solve the problem of inconsistency in the reference data between the high and low latitude regions. The proposed model is compared with the CNES-CLS2011 and DTU13 MSS models, and the standard derivation (STD of the differences between the models is about 5 cm between 80°S and 84°N, less than 3 cm between 66°S and 66°N, and less than 4 cm in the China Sea and its adjacent sea. Furthermore, the three models exhibit a good agreement in the SSH differences and the along-track gradient of SSH following comparisons with satellite altimetry data.

  19. Global modelling of magnetic island control in tokamaks

    Fevrier, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    Magneto-Hydro-Dynamic (MHD) instabilities are susceptible to develop within a tokamak plasma. These instabilities manifest themselves as magnetic islands which reduce the plasma confinement. The islands can however be controlled by driving current inside them. In this thesis, we consider the modeling of the magnetic islands and their control using first principle approaches, which rely on a global MHD description of the plasma. We have detailed the inclusion a RF-driven current like source term in an MHD code, which requires special care to be given to the modeling of the current density evolution. The implementation has been benchmarked against the asymptotic models, allowing us to retrieve the influence of parameters such as deposition width or misalignment with respect to the island width and position. Beyond these aspects, we have evidenced new effects, linked to the 3D nature of the current deposition. We have observed a flip instability in which an island, reduced by the ECCD, brutally inverse its phase so that its X-Point faces the current deposition, allowing the mode the grow further. We then moved on to the topic of the best suitable control strategies for the control of the island. We have implemented in XTOR a control system that mimics the experimental ones and adapt the current deposition in function of a preset strategy. Nonlinear MHD simulations have been carried out using different control schemes, allowing us to quantify the gain to expect from each of these methods depending on the characteristics of the current deposition. (author) [fr

  20. [The Global Model of Public Mental Health and Recovery Mentors].

    Pelletier, Jean-François; Auclair, Émilie

    Objectives The aim of this paper is to revisit the Global Model of Public Mental Health (GMPMH) in light of the 4th Civic Forum. Recovery mentors of the University of Recovery chaired this public event, which was held in East-end Montreal, Canada, in 2016. The University of Recovery is a concept of co-learning among its members.Methods Being able to refer to international conventions and human rights standards is a key component of a genuine global approach that is supportive of individuals and communities in their quest for recovery and full citizenship. The GMPMH was inspired by the ecological approach in public health and health promotion programs, while adding to that approach the recovery mentors, as agents of mental health policies and legislation transformation. The GMPMH integrates recovery- and citizenship-oriented practices through the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion of the World Health Organization. Indeed, here the GMPMH is said to be global in that the supranational and individual levels reinforce each other, taking turns with a) a set of legal rules and international conventions on human rights, including those of disabled persons, and b) the active involvement and agency of recovery mentors who can evoke these rules and conventions as part of a plea for the recognition of their personal and collective capacity for change; they acted as tracers of recovery trajectories during the Civic Forum. The GMPMH was first published in 2009, and revisited in 2013. While this latter revision was based on the 3rd Civic Forum, in this paper we use the same approach to revisit the GMPMH as underpinned by the findings and recommendations of the 4th Civic Forum, which discussed questions related to work and employment.Results Updating the GMPMH in light of the Civic Forum underlines the need for a more inclusive type of governance regarding policy and systems transformation. Local communities and persons in recovery can reach each other to promote change and

  1. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  2. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Xiao-meng Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  3. Stable aesthetic standards delusion: changing 'artistic quality' by elaboration.

    Carbon, Claus-Christian; Hesslinger, Vera M

    2014-01-01

    The present study challenges the notion that judgments of artistic quality are based on stable aesthetic standards. We propose that such standards are a delusion and that judgments of artistic quality are the combined result of exposure, elaboration, and discourse. We ran two experiments using elaboration tasks based on the repeated evaluation technique in which different versions of the Mona Lisa had to be elaborated deeply. During the initial task either the version known from the Louvre or an alternative version owned by the Prado was elaborated; during the second task both versions were elaborated in a comparative fashion. After both tasks multiple blends of the two versions had to be evaluated concerning several aesthetic key variables. Judgments of artistic quality of the blends were significantly different depending on the initially elaborated version of the Mona Lisa, indicating experience-based aesthetic processing, which contradicts the notion of stable aesthetic standards.

  4. Plasma Reactors and Plasma Thrusters Modeling by Ar Complete Global Models

    Chloe Berenguer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A complete global model for argon was developed and adapted to plasma reactor and plasma thruster modeling. It takes into consideration ground level and excited Ar and Ar+ species and the reactor and thruster form factors. The electronic temperature, the species densities, and the ionization percentage, depending mainly on the pressure and the absorbed power, have been obtained and commented for various physical conditions.

  5. The extrapolar SWIFT-model: Fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    Kreyling, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this PhD-thesis was the development of a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for an interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer. The SWIFT-model is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs). For computing-time reasons GCMs often do not employ full stratospheric chemistry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This method does not consider the interaction between atmospheric dynamics and the ozone layer and can neither resolve the inter-annu...

  6. Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study.

    Alkire, Blake C; Shrime, Mark G; Dare, Anna J; Vincent, Jeffrey R; Meara, John G

    2015-04-27

    The surgical burden of disease is substantial, but little is known about the associated economic consequences. We estimate the global macroeconomic impact of the surgical burden of disease due to injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal and neonatal disorders from two distinct economic perspectives. We obtained mortality rate estimates for each disease for the years 2000 and 2010 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, and estimates of the proportion of the burden of the selected diseases that is surgical from a paper by Shrime and colleagues. We first used the value of lost output (VLO) approach, based on the WHO's Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-Health (EPIC) model, to project annual market economy losses due to these surgical diseases during 2015-30. EPIC attempts to model how disease affects a country's projected labour force and capital stock, which in turn are related to losses in economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). We then used the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which is conceptually based on the value of a statistical life and is inclusive of non-market losses, to estimate the present value of long-run welfare losses resulting from mortality and short-run welfare losses resulting from morbidity incurred during 2010. Sensitivity analyses were performed for both approaches. During 2015-30, the VLO approach projected that surgical conditions would result in losses of 1·25% of potential GDP, or $20·7 trillion (2010 US$, purchasing power parity) in the 128 countries with data available. When expressed as a proportion of potential GDP, annual GDP losses were greatest in low-income and middle-income countries, with up to a 2·5% loss in output by 2030. When total welfare losses are assessed (VLW), the present value of economic losses is estimated to be equivalent to 17% of 2010 GDP, or $14·5 trillion in the 175 countries assessed with this approach. Neoplasm and injury account

  7. Global identifiability of linear compartmental models--a computer algebra algorithm.

    Audoly, S; D'Angiò, L; Saccomani, M P; Cobelli, C

    1998-01-01

    A priori global identifiability deals with the uniqueness of the solution for the unknown parameters of a model and is, thus, a prerequisite for parameter estimation of biological dynamic models. Global identifiability is however difficult to test, since it requires solving a system of algebraic nonlinear equations which increases both in nonlinearity degree and number of terms and unknowns with increasing model order. In this paper, a computer algebra tool, GLOBI (GLOBal Identifiability) is presented, which combines the topological transfer function method with the Buchberger algorithm, to test global identifiability of linear compartmental models. GLOBI allows for the automatic testing of a priori global identifiability of general structure compartmental models from general multi input-multi output experiments. Examples of usage of GLOBI to analyze a priori global identifiability of some complex biological compartmental models are provided.

  8. UNDERSTANDING SOLAR TORSIONAL OSCILLATIONS FROM GLOBAL DYNAMO MODELS

    Guerrero, G.; Smolarkiewicz, P. K.; Pino, E. M. de Gouveia Dal; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.

    2016-01-01

    The phenomenon of solar “torsional oscillations” (TO) represents migratory zonal flows associated with the solar cycle. These flows are observed on the solar surface and, according to helioseismology, extend through the convection zone. We study the origin of the TO using results from a global MHD simulation of the solar interior that reproduces several of the observed characteristics of the mean-flows and magnetic fields. Our results indicate that the magnetic tension (MT) in the tachocline region is a key factor for the periodic changes in the angular momentum transport that causes the TO. The torque induced by the MT at the base of the convection zone is positive at the poles and negative at the equator. A rising MT torque at higher latitudes causes the poles to speed up, whereas a declining negative MT torque at the lower latitudes causes the equator to slow-down. These changes in the zonal flows propagate through the convection zone up to the surface. Additionally, our results suggest that it is the magnetic field at the tachocline that modulates the amplitude of the surface meridional flow rather than the opposite as assumed by flux-transport dynamo models of the solar cycle.

  9. A Global Model for Circumgalactic and Cluster-core Precipitation

    Voit, G. Mark; Meece, Greg; Li, Yuan; O'Shea, Brian W.; Bryan, Greg L.; Donahue, Megan

    2017-08-01

    We provide an analytic framework for interpreting observations of multiphase circumgalactic gas that is heavily informed by recent numerical simulations of thermal instability and precipitation in cool-core galaxy clusters. We start by considering the local conditions required for the formation of multiphase gas via two different modes: (1) uplift of ambient gas by galactic outflows, and (2) condensation in a stratified stationary medium in which thermal balance is explicitly maintained. Analytic exploration of these two modes provides insights into the relationships between the local ratio of the cooling and freefall timescales (I.e., {t}{cool}/{t}{ff}), the large-scale gradient of specific entropy, and the development of precipitation and multiphase media in circumgalactic gas. We then use these analytic findings to interpret recent simulations of circumgalactic gas in which global thermal balance is maintained. We show that long-lasting configurations of gas with 5≲ \\min ({t}{cool}/{t}{ff})≲ 20 and radial entropy profiles similar to observations of cool cores in galaxy clusters are a natural outcome of precipitation-regulated feedback. We conclude with some observational predictions that follow from these models. This work focuses primarily on precipitation and AGN feedback in galaxy-cluster cores, because that is where the observations of multiphase gas around galaxies are most complete. However, many of the physical principles that govern condensation in those environments apply to circumgalactic gas around galaxies of all masses.

  10. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  11. Improving InSAR geodesy using Global Atmospheric Models

    Jolivet, Romain; Agram, Piyush Shanker; Lin, Nina Y.; Simons, Mark; Doin, Marie-Pierre; Peltzer, Gilles; Li, Zhenghong

    2014-03-01

    Spatial and temporal variations of pressure, temperature, and water vapor content in the atmosphere introduce significant confounding delays in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations of ground deformation and bias estimates of regional strain rates. Producing robust estimates of tropospheric delays remains one of the key challenges in increasing the accuracy of ground deformation measurements using InSAR. Recent studies revealed the efficiency of global atmospheric reanalysis to mitigate the impact of tropospheric delays, motivating further exploration of their potential. Here we explore the effectiveness of these models in several geographic and tectonic settings on both single interferograms and time series analysis products. Both hydrostatic and wet contributions to the phase delay are important to account for. We validate these path delay corrections by comparing with estimates of vertically integrated atmospheric water vapor content derived from the passive multispectral imager Medium-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, onboard the Envisat satellite. Generally, the performance of the prediction depends on the vigor of atmospheric turbulence. We discuss (1) how separating atmospheric and orbital contributions allows one to better measure long-wavelength deformation and (2) how atmospheric delays affect measurements of surface deformation following earthquakes, and (3) how such a method allows us to reduce biases in multiyear strain rate estimates by reducing the influence of unevenly sampled seasonal oscillations of the tropospheric delay.

  12. Methane airborne measurements and comparison to global models during BARCA

    Beck, Veronika; Chen, Huilin; Gerbig, Christoph; Bergamaschi, Peter; Bruhwiler, Lori; Houweling, Sander; Röckmann, Thomas; Kolle, Olaf; Steinbach, Julia; Koch, Thomas; Sapart, Célia J.; van der Veen, Carina; Frankenberg, Christian; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Artaxo, Paulo; Longo, Karla M.; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2012-08-01

    Tropical regions, especially the Amazon region, account for large emissions of methane (CH4). Here, we present CH4 observations from two airborne campaigns conducted within the BARCA (Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia) project in the Amazon basin in November 2008 (end of the dry season) and May 2009 (end of the wet season). We performed continuous measurements of CH4 onboard an aircraft for the first time in the Amazon region, covering the whole Amazon basin with over 150 vertical profiles between altitudes of 500 m and 4000 m. The observations support the finding of previous ground-based, airborne, and satellite measurements that the Amazon basin is a large source of atmospheric CH4. Isotope analysis verified that the majority of emissions can be attributed to CH4 emissions from wetlands, while urban CH4 emissions could be also traced back to biogenic origin. A comparison of five TM5 based global CH4 inversions with the observations clearly indicates that the inversions using SCIAMACHY observations represent the BARCA observations best. The calculated CH4 flux estimate obtained from the mismatch between observations and TM5-modeled CH4 fields ranges from 36 to 43 mg m-2 d-1 for the Amazon lowland region.

  13. Matérn-based nonstationary cross-covariance models for global processes

    Jun, Mikyoung

    2014-01-01

    -covariance models, based on the Matérn covariance model class, that are suitable for describing prominent nonstationary characteristics of the global processes. In particular, we seek nonstationary versions of Matérn covariance models whose smoothness parameters

  14. Incorporating grassland management in a global vegetation model

    Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Tao; Cozic, Anne; Lardy, Romain; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2013-04-01

    Grassland is a widespread vegetation type, covering nearly one-fifth of the world's land surface (24 million km2), and playing a significant role in the global carbon (C) cycle. Most of grasslands in Europe are cultivated to feed animals, either directly by grazing or indirectly by grass harvest (cutting). A better understanding of the C fluxes from grassland ecosystems in response to climate and management requires not only field experiments but also the aid of simulation models. ORCHIDEE process-based ecosystem model designed for large-scale applications treats grasslands as being unmanaged, where C / water fluxes are only subject to atmospheric CO2 and climate changes. Our study describes how management of grasslands is included in the ORCHIDEE, and how management affects modeled grassland-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The new model, ORCHIDEE-GM (Grassland Management) is capable with a management module inspired from a grassland model (PaSim, version 5.0), of accounting for two grassland management practices (cutting and grazing). The evaluation of the results of ORCHIDEE-GM compared with those of ORCHIDEE at 11 European sites equipped with eddy covariance and biometric measurements, show that ORCHIDEE-GM can capture realistically the cut-induced seasonal variation in biometric variables (LAI: Leaf Area Index; AGB: Aboveground Biomass) and in CO2 fluxes (GPP: Gross Primary Productivity; TER: Total Ecosystem Respiration; and NEE: Net Ecosystem Exchange). But improvements at grazing sites are only marginal in ORCHIDEE-GM, which relates to the difficulty in accounting for continuous grazing disturbance and its induced complex animal-vegetation interactions. Both NEE and GPP on monthly to annual timescales can be better simulated in ORCHIDEE-GM than in ORCHIDEE without management. At some sites, the model-observation misfit in ORCHIDEE-GM is found to be more related to ill-constrained parameter values than to model structure. Additionally, ORCHIDEE-GM is able to simulate

  15. United People : designing a new model of global governance

    Romme, A.G.L.; Ansell, C.; Buck, J.; Choi, Y.; van der Eyden, R.; Figueroa Huencho, V.; John, E.; Kunkler, T.; Mair, J.; Meijer, A.; Meyer, R.; Stephenson, K.; Välikangas, L.; Whitestone, N.; Yu, C.

    2018-01-01

    Human-driven changes on this planet have been giving rise to global warming, social instability, civil wars, and acts of terrorism. The existing system of global governance is not equipped to effectively address these enormous challenges. It is slow where one must move quickly, favors bureaucracy

  16. Facing a New Globalization Model – Altermondialisation Perspectives

    Mircea Dutu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Born also as a reaction, with a pronounced contestatory character and as an alternative to the actual mondialization of the “total capitalism”, the altermondialism has succeeded to impose itself in the last decade as a social movement with transcontinental dimensions and as a theoretical position in full development. By denouncing the essential drawbacks of the international order of finance and commerce – the multiplication of the discrepancies between North and South, the amplification of the inequalities between rich and poor or the emphasis of the ecological insecurity, which demonstrates the incapacity of the occidental economic model in offering a sustainable future for the entire humanity – the altermondialist project proposes a global model of development, multidimensional, in which the factors: economy, society, ecology and culture are combining in a viable way. The neo-liberal dogma of absolute free change and of the pre-eminence of private is replaced with values, such as: solidarity, democracy and social justice. If the diversity of elements and its nature of “movement of movements” prove to be efficient as a front of contesting and denouncing of the existing mondialism, the lack of homogeneity impedes building a clear and coherent strategic program and, consequently, canalizing the efforts of the altermondialist militants towards a unique direction. Nevertheless, a common direction is affirming on general themes, such as: promoting a sustainable development, respecting fundamental rights, protecting the environment, peace and democracy. With an often idealist speech, marching towards a “contestant utopia”, the movement designated as its main ideological adversary, the neo-liberalism and wants to become a “theoretical engine” of social struggle. Until now, the performance of confrontations between the supporters of the two mondialisms – the one still in force and, respectively, the one in project phase, showed

  17. Facing a New Globalization Model – Altermondialisation Perspectives

    Mircea Dutu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Born also as a reaction, with a pronounced contestatory character and as an alternative to the actual mondialization of the “total capitalism”, the altermondialism has succeeded to impose itself in the last decade as a social movement with transcontinental dimensions and as a theoretical position in full development. By denouncing the essential drawbacks of the international order of finance and commerce – the multiplication of the discrepancies between North and South, the amplification of the inequalities between rich and poor or the emphasis of the ecological insecurity, which demonstrates the incapacity of the occidental economic model in offering a sustainable future for the entire humanity – the altermondialist project proposes a global model of development, multidimensional, in which the factors: economy, society, ecology and culture are combining in a viable way. The neo-liberal dogma of absolute free change and of the pre-eminence of private is replaced with values, such as: solidarity, democracy and social justice. If the diversity of elements and its nature of “movement of movements” prove to be efficient as a front of contesting and denouncing of the existing mondialism, the lack of homogeneity impedes building a clear and coherent strategic program and, consequently, canalizing the efforts of the altermondialist militants towards a unique direction. Nevertheless, a common direction is affirming on general themes, such as: promoting a sustainable development, respecting fundamental rights, protecting the environment, peace and democracy. With an often idealist speech, marching towards a “contestant utopia”, the movement designated as its main ideological adversary, the neo-liberalism and wants to become a “theoretical engine” of social struggle. Until now, the performance of confrontations between the supporters of the two mondialisms – the one still in force and, respectively, the one in project phase, showed

  18. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  19. Global modelling to predict timber production and prices: the GFPM approach

    Joseph Buongiorno

    2014-01-01

    Timber production and prices are determined by the global demand for forest products, and the capability of producers from many countries to grow and harvest trees, transform them into products and export. The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) simulates how this global demand and supply of multiple products among many countries determines prices and attendant...

  20. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

  1. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  2. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

  3. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Rummukainen, M [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1996-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  4. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Rummukainen, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1995-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  5. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  6. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; von Bloh, Werner; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Biemans, Hester; Forkel, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Knauer, Jürgen; Langerwisch, Fanny; Lucht, Wolfgang; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

  7. ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In August 2008, the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), developed the ETOPO1 Global...

  8. Global Stability for a Binge Drinking Model with Two Stages

    Hai-Feng Huo

    2012-01-01

    are determined by the basic reproduction number, R0. The alcohol-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the alcohol problems are eliminated from the population if R01. Numerical simulations are also conducted in the analytic results.

  9. NOAA/NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Atmospheric Model

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) numerical weather...

  10. A user-oriented model for global enterprise portal design

    Feng, X.; Ehrenhard, Michel Léon; Hicks, Jeff; Maathuis, Stephanus Johannes; Maathuis, S.J.; Hou, Y.

    2010-01-01

    Enterprise portals collect and synthesise information from various systems to deliver personalised and highly relevant information to users. Enterprise portals' design and applications are widely discussed in the literature; however, the implications of portal design in a global networked

  11. Connecting Global to Local Parameters in Barred Galaxy Models

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Key words. Galaxies: barred—orbits—global and local parameters. .... series near the stable Lagrange point L1, which coincides with the origin. Doing so, .... Toomre, A. 1981, In: The Structure and Evolution of Normal Galaxies, (eds) S. M. Fall,.

  12. Elaboration of Safe Community Assessment System

    Birutė Mikulskienė

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to design an assessment system to monitor and evaluate safety parameters and administrative efforts with the purpose to increase safety in municipalities. The safety monitoring system considered is to be the most important tool for creation and development of safe communities in Lithuania. Several methods were applied to achieve this purpose. In order to determine the role of local government in ensuring the safety of people, property and environment at the local level of a meta-analysis of research reports, the Lithuanian national legislation, strategic planning documents of the state and local government were carried out. Analysis of statistical data, structural analysis, comparative analysis and synthesis methods were used while investigating the areas of safety uncertainty, risk groups, identifying safety risk factors, determining their relationship, and creating a safe community assessment system. A safe community assessment system, which consists of two types of criteria, has been elaborated. The assessment system is based on the multi-level criteria for safety monitoring and the multi-level criteria for the evaluation of municipal activities in the field of building safety. Links between the criteria, peculiarities of their application and advantages in the process of safe community creation and development are analyzed. Design and implementation of the safe community assessment system is one of the most important stages to implement the idea of safe communities. The proposed system integrates a variety of risk areas, the safety achievement criteria are linked to the criteria used in the strategic planning. Periodic assessment of the safety situation using the proposed system ensures possibility to monitor current local safety conditions and assess the changes and the trends. A safe community assessment system is proposed to be used as a tool to unified municipalities safety comprehensiveness and compare safety level in

  13. Elaboration of Safe Community Assessment System

    Algirdas Astrauskas

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to design an assessment system to monitor and evaluate safety parameters and administrative efforts with the purpose to increase safety in municipalities. The safety monitoring system considered is to be the most important tool for creation anddevelopment of safe communities in Lithuania. Several methods were applied to achieve this purpose. In order to determine the role of local government in ensuring the safety of people, property and environment at the local level of a meta-analysis of research reports,the Lithuanian national legislation, strategic planning documents of the state and local government were carried out. Analysis of statistical data, structural analysis, comparative analysis and synthesis methods were used while investigating the areas of safety uncertainty, risk groups, identifying safety risk factors, determining their relationship, and creating a safe community assessment system.A safe community assessment system, which consists of two types of criteria, has been elaborated. The assessment system is based on the multi-level criteria for safety monitoring and the multi-level criteria for the evaluation of municipal activities in the field of building safety. Links between the criteria, peculiarities of their application and advantages in the process of safe community creation and development are analyzed.Design and implementation of the safe community assessment system is one of the most important stages to implement the idea of safe communities. The proposed system integrates a variety of risk areas, the safety achievement criteria are linked to the criteria used in thestrategic planning. Periodic assessment of the safety situation using the proposed system ensures possibility to monitor current local safety conditions and assess the changes and the trends. A safe community assessment system is proposed to be used as a tool to unified municipalities safety comprehensiveness and compare safety level in

  14. Matter transfer during virgin olive oil elaboration

    Gómez Herrera, Carlos

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available In the course of the process of elaboration of virgin olive oil (whose main stages are crushing, malaxation and centrifugation the transfer of several minor components to the triacylglycerol constituent of the oily globules originally present in the cells of the fruit mesocarp is produced. Such minor components are chemical species present in the olive fruits, as well as those resulting from chemical or enzymatic processes which take place in the olive paste upon crushing. In this paper several types of transferable minor components, as well as those parameters affecting the rates of transfer are studied.Geometric and physical variations of interfacial regions between the oil and other systems in contact with it are discussed. These systems are olive vegetation water, olive pulp components, and fragments of the woody endocarp, as well as the atmospheric air and the tools and equipment of the oil mill.This article concludes with some considerations about the improvements of virgin olive oils achieved by controlling the transfer of minor components.Durante la elaboración del aceite de oliva virgen (cuyas principales etapas son molturación, batido y centrifugación se producen transferencias de diversos componentes menores a los triacilgliceroles originalmente presentes en los glóbulos oleosos de las células del mesocarpio de los frutos. Estos componentes menores son especies químicas presentes en las aceitunas, así como especies resultantes de procesos químicos o enzimáticos que se producen en la pasta a partir de la molturación. En este artículo se estudian diversos tipos de componentes menores transferibles, así como aquellos parámetros que afectan sus velocidades de transferencia.Se discuten las variaciones geométricas y físicas de las regiones interfaciales situadas entre el aceite y los otros sistemas en contacto con el mismo. Estos sistemas son el agua de vegetación, los componentes de la pulpa y los fragmentos de endocarpio

  15. Depth and Elaboration of Processing in Relation to Age.

    Simon, Eileen

    1979-01-01

    The recall effectiveness of semantic and phonemic cues was compared to uncover the pattern of deep and elaborate processing in relation to age and experimental treatment. It was concluded that aging results in poor elaboration, especially in inefficient integration of word events with the context of presentation. (Author/CP)

  16. Elaborative Processing in the Korsakoff Syndrome: Context versus Habit

    Van Damme, Ilse; d'Ydewalle, Gery

    2008-01-01

    Using a procedure of Hay and Jacoby [Hay, J. F., & Jacoby, L. L. (1999). "Separating habit and recollection in young and older adults: Effects of elaborative processing and distinctiveness." "Psychology and Aging," 14, 122-134], Korsakoff patients' capacity to encode and retrieve elaborative, semantic information was investigated. Habits were…

  17. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  18. Prospective of Transformation of Current Models of the Global Pharmaceutical Market

    Yuriy Solodkovskyy

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This article thoroughly analyzes the current state of the global pharmaceutical market, defines the key factors for its development and outlines the promising areas of transformation of existing business models of top companies. The forecasted data relating to the market development until 2015 have been investigated. The global, market, technological and organizational factors of transformation of modern model of the global pharmaceutical market have been identified.

  19. The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

    Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

    2012-01-01

    In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

  20. Nuclear Fuel Leasing, Recycling and proliferation: Modeling a Global View

    Crozat, M P; Choi, J; Reis, V H; Hill, R

    2004-01-01

    would extend the spirit of President Eisenhower's ''Atoms for Peace'' vision toward solving some of the major international problems of the 21st Century--global climate change and the creation of a peaceful and stable world political regime. Needless to say, this is a very complex problem, encompassing all of the issues involved in nuclear power--economics, proliferation, waste management and safety--and a myriad of public and diplomatic policy issues as well. To gain a better understanding of the leasing concept we have built an interactive system dynamics model, Multinuke, using STELLA software. (STELLA is particularly useful for this type of analysis because of its capability to create user-friendly interfaces.) Multinuke simulates two separate nuclear entities and possible interactions between them, and therefore can be used to investigate the fuel-leasing concept. In this paper we will apply the results of Multinuke to a few simplified scenarios to help understand how fuel leasing might affect the future global growth of nuclear power, proliferation concern and spent fuel management

  1. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 2: Model evaluation

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; Forkel, Matthias; Müller, Christoph; Knauer, Jürgen; von Bloh, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.

  2. Activating Global Operating Models: The bridge from organization design to performance

    Amy Kates

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces the concept of activation and discusses its use in the implementation of global operating models by large multinational companies. We argue that five particular activators help set in motion the complex strategies and organizations required by global operating models.

  3. Evaluating Economic Impacts of Expanded Global Wood Energy Consumption with the USFPM/GFPM Model

    Peter J. Ince; Andrew Kramp; Kenneth E. Skog

    2012-01-01

    A U.S. forest sector market module was developed within the general Global Forest Products Model. The U.S. module tracks regional timber markets, timber harvests by species group, and timber product outputs in greater detail than does the global model. This hybrid approach provides detailed regional market analysis for the United States although retaining the...

  4. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  5. Modeling higher education attractiveness to stand global environment

    Leonel Cezar Rodrigues

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Inabilities to deal with the changing environment may lead Higher Education Institutions (HEI to loose institutional attractiveness. Digital transformation requires global insertion as essential feature to institutional attractiveness. Processes for international education seem to lack the links between real environmental trends and the internal capabilities to global education. HEI managers may approach endeavors to internationalize education combining ambidextrous strategy supported by consolidated resilience capabilities. The latest ones refer to building internal value attributes to increase institutional attractiveness assuring solid standing in the global environment. In this article, a theoretical essay, we approach the problem of creating resilience as a way of backing up ambidexterity to generate institutional attractiveness. The set of value attributes, on the other hand, may originate strategic routes to strengthen internal competences and to make the institution more attractive, as a dynamic capability.

  6. The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

    Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

  7. Using Intel's Knight Landing Processor to Accelerate Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) Model

    Wang, H.; Chen, H.; Chen, X.; Wu, Q.; Wang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    The Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System for Hg (GNAQPMS-Hg) is a global chemical transport model coupled Hg transport module to investigate the mercury pollution. In this study, we present our work of transplanting the GNAQPMS model on Intel Xeon Phi processor, Knights Landing (KNL) to accelerate the model. KNL is the second-generation product adopting Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) architecture. Compared with the first generation Knight Corner (KNC), KNL has more new hardware features, that it can be used as unique processor as well as coprocessor with other CPU. According to the Vtune tool, the high overhead modules in GNAQPMS model have been addressed, including CBMZ gas chemistry, advection and convection module, and wet deposition module. These high overhead modules were accelerated by optimizing code and using new techniques of KNL. The following optimized measures was done: 1) Changing the pure MPI parallel mode to hybrid parallel mode with MPI and OpenMP; 2.Vectorizing the code to using the 512-bit wide vector computation unit. 3. Reducing unnecessary memory access and calculation. 4. Reducing Thread Local Storage (TLS) for common variables with each OpenMP thread in CBMZ. 5. Changing the way of global communication from files writing and reading to MPI functions. After optimization, the performance of GNAQPMS is greatly increased both on CPU and KNL platform, the single-node test showed that optimized version has 2.6x speedup on two sockets CPU platform and 3.3x speedup on one socket KNL platform compared with the baseline version code, which means the KNL has 1.29x speedup when compared with 2 sockets CPU platform.

  8. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  9. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  10. GLOFRIM v1.0 – A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological–hydrodynamic modelling

    Hoch, J.M.; Neal, Jeffrey; Baart, Fedor; van Beek, L.P.H.; Winsemius, Hessel; Bates, Paul; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2017-01-01

    We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological–hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global

  11. Conceptual model of the globalization for domain-specific languages

    Clark, T.; van den Brand, M.; Combemale, B.; Rumpe, B.; Combemale, B.

    2015-01-01

    Domain Specific Languages (DSL) have received some prominence recently. Designing a DSL and all their tools is still cumbersome and lots of work. Engineering of DSLs is still at infancy, not even the terms have been coined and agreed on. In particular globalization and all its consequences need to

  12. Rapid screening of operational freshwater availability using global models

    Straatsma, M.W.; Vermeulen, P.; Kuijper, Marijn; Bonte, Matthijs; Niele, Frank; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    Freshwater shortage already affects large parts of the world, and is expected to increase rapidly over the coming decades as a result of increased water demands and the impacts of climate change. Global-scale water risk or stress maps are available online, but these lack quantitative information on

  13. Modeling the potential impacts of global climate change in ...

    One of the hottest issues in the recent environmental research worldwide has become the harmful effects of climate change on the ecosystems and environment due to global warming. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries not only in the South East Asia but also in the world. It is predicted that a large portion of ...

  14. Stochastic modelling inflation in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global Journal of ...

    Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 5, No 1 (2006) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register · Download this PDF file. The PDF file you selected ...

  15. From polymer chemistry to membrane elaboration

    Iojoiu, C. [ERAS-Labo, 222 RN 90, F-38330 St. Nazaire-les-Eymes (France); Chabert, F.; Marechal, M.; Guindet, J.; Sanchez, J.-Y. [LEPMI ENSEEG, Domaine Universitaire, BP 75, F-38402 St. Martin d' Heres Cedex (France); Kissi, N.El. [Laboratoire de Rheologie, ENSHMG, Domaine Universitaire, BP 95, F-38402 St. Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)

    2006-02-28

    The paper tries to make a critical inventory of Ionomers, free of fluorine or fluorine less, which can be used as alternatives to Nafion{sup R} in polymer electrolytes fuel cells, as Ionomer is indisputably one of the main bolts of these technologies. All the Ionomer families are discussed, with their main advantages and drawbacks, in particular in terms of their possible industrial scale-up. Special attention has been paid to the discussions about the choice of the ionic functions and that of polymeric backbones of the Ionomers, with regard to the required electrochemical properties and also to their thermomechanical behaviour. It has been emphasized that a global approach of the polymer electrolytes is essential to progress. This must involve (i) a control of the syntheses up to the pilot scale, (ii) thorough characterizations, (iii) attention to the membrane and the MEA assembly and (iv) durability investigations, including post-mortem characterizations. (author)

  16. The Role of Elaboration in the Comprehension and Retention of Prose: A Critical Review.

    Reder, Lynne M.

    1980-01-01

    Recent research in the area of prose comprehension is reviewed, including factors that affect amount of recall, representations of text structures, and use of world knowledge to aid comprehension. The need for more information processing models of comprehension is emphasized. Elaboration is considered important for comprehension and retention.…

  17. Zeus and Trojan advantage: traces of elaborations of the tradition in the Iliad

    Pietro Verzina

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Following a theoretical model, this article assumes that the poet of the Iliad is aware of the potential inconsistency between the traditional account of the wrath and the version which he elaborates, and shows how the poem manages both according to its expressive and structural purposes.

  18. Global stability analysis of epidemiological models based on Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices

    Liao Shu; Wang Jin

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Global dynamics of high dimensional dynamical systems. ► A systematic approach for global stability analysis. ► Epidemiological models of environment-dependent diseases. - Abstract: In this paper, we study the global dynamics of a class of mathematical epidemiological models formulated by systems of differential equations. These models involve both human population and environmental component(s) and constitute high-dimensional nonlinear autonomous systems, for which the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibria has been a major challenge in analyzing the dynamics. By incorporating the theory of Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices into the classical method of Lyapunov functions, we present an approach for global stability analysis and obtain new results on some three- and four-dimensional model systems. In addition, we conduct numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

  19. A simple global carbon and energy coupled cycle model for global warming simulation: sensitivity to the light saturation effect

    Ichii, Kazuhito; Murakami, Kazutaka; Mukai, Toshikazu; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Ogawa, Katsuro

    2003-01-01

    A simple Earth system model, the Four-Spheres Cycle of Energy and Mass (4-SCEM) model, has been developed to simulate global warming due to anthropogenic CO 2 emission. The model consists of the Atmosphere-Earth Heat Cycle (AEHC) model, the Four Spheres Carbon Cycle (4-SCC) model, and their feedback processes. The AEHC model is a one-dimensional radiative convective model, which includes the greenhouse effect of CO 2 and H 2 O, and one cloud layer. The 4-SCC model is a box-type carbon cycle model, which includes biospheric CO 2 fertilization, vegetation area variation, the vegetation light saturation effect and the HILDA oceanic carbon cycle model. The feedback processes between carbon cycle and climate considered in the model are temperature dependencies of water vapor content, soil decomposition and ocean surface chemistry. The future status of the global carbon cycle and climate was simulated up to the year 2100 based on the 'business as usual' (IS92a) emission scenario, followed by a linear decline in emissions to zero in the year 2200. The atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaches 645 ppmv in 2100 and a peak of 760 ppmv approximately in the year 2170, and becomes a steady state with 600 ppmv. The projected CO 2 concentration was lower than those of the past carbon cycle studies, because we included the light saturation effect of vegetation. The sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties derived from the light saturation effect of vegetation and land use CO 2 emissions were the primary cause of uncertainties in projecting future CO 2 concentrations. The climate feedback effects showed rather small sensitivities compared with the impacts of those two effects. Satellite-based net primary production trends analyses can somewhat decrease the uncertainty in quantifying CO 2 emissions due to land use changes. On the other hand, as the estimated parameter in vegetation light saturation was poorly constrained, we have to quantify and constrain the effect more

  20. The Dynamic Internationalization Model of Slovenian Born Global SMEs

    Ina Lejko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs are important businessactors in the Slovenian, as well as European economy. Inaddition to the current global market conditions, reflecting a severeeconomic downturn, the SMEs in Slovenia and other transitioneconomies operate under additional extensive external pressures,arising from the opening of their domestic markets. Undersuch conditions, companies, including SMEs, perceive internationalizationas an inevitable, or even urgent step in the processof their business operations. However, companies pursue differentpaths in their internationalization efforts, one of them beinga rapid internationalization strategy, denoted as the Born Globalconcept. In the paper, we explore the internationalization processof Slovenian Born Global SMEs. We employ an exploratory qualitativecase study analysis of selected Slovenian SMEs in order tograsp the key characteristics of their internationalization process.On the basis of the latter we construct a dynamic internationalizationmodel that might be used as a conceptual framework forempirical research of dynamic SMEs market behavior in Sloveniaand other transition countries.

  1. Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

    Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2015-04-01

    Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

  2. Global existence result for the generalized Peterlin viscoelastic model

    Lukáčová-Medviďová, M.; Mizerová, H.; Nečasová, Šárka; Renardy, M.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 4 (2017), s. 2950-2964 ISSN 0036-1410 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-00522S Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : Peterlin viscoelastic equations * global existence * weak solutions Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics Impact factor: 1.648, year: 2016 http://epubs.siam.org/doi/abs/10.1137/16M1068505

  3. Stochastic modelling inflation in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global Journal of ...

    No Abstract. Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences Vol. 5(1) 2006: 17-24. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/gjmas.v5i1.21376 · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL... for Researchers · for Librarians ...

  4. Global gravity and the geodynamic model of the Earth

    Nedoma, J.

    1988-01-01

    Plate tectonic hypotheses require the formation of a new oceanic lithosphere at mid-oceanic ridges and imply the further modification and continued evolution towards the continental type of lithosphere in the regions of island arcs and orogenic belts. All these phenomena observed on the Earths's surface are results of all geodynamic processes passing through the Earth's interior. Since geodynamic processes change through the geological epochs, the gravity field also changes during the same geological periods. Thus, the paper is concerned with physical relationships between the global gravity field and the geodynamic processes as well as all geophysical fields affected by the geodynamic processes inside the Earth. The aim of this paper is to analyse the inner and outer gravity field of the Earth during the evolution of the Earth in the course of the geological epochs, and to build the generalized theory of the global gravity field of the Earth from the point of view of the global and local geodynamic processes taking place within the Earth's interior. (author)

  5. Computational Modeling in Support of Global Eradication of Infectious Diseases

    Eckhoff, Philip A.; Gates, William H., III; Myhrvold, Nathan P.; Wood, Lowell

    2014-07-01

    The past century has seen tremendous advances in global health, with broad reductions in the worldwide burden of infectious disease. Science has fundamentally advanced our understanding of disease etiology and medicine has provided remarkable capabilities to diagnose many syndromes and to target the causative pathogen. The advent and proliferation of antibiotics has dramatically lowered the impact of infections that were once near certain death sentences. Vaccination has provided a route to protect each new birth cohort from pathogens which once killed a substantial fraction of each generation, and in some countries, vaccination coverage has been raised to sufficiently high levels to fully interrupt transmission of major pathogens. There were 7 million deaths among children under 5 years of age in 2010, substantially down from decades past, and even more so in terms of deaths per capita per year of populations at risk. However, the annual rate globally is 1,070 per 100,000, while in developed countries the rate is only 137 per 100,000 (IHME GBD, 2010). Therefore, bringing global rates down to rates already achieved in developed countries represents the huge gains currently available via means such as vaccination and access to modern health care...

  6. Filling some black holes: modeling the connection between urbanization, infrastructure, and global service intensity

    Van De Vijver, Elien; Derudder, Ben; Bassens, David; Witlox, Frank

    2014-01-01

    This empirical article combines insights from previous research on the level of knowledge-intensive service in metropolitan areas with the aim to develop an understanding of the spatial structure of the global service economy. We use a stepwise regression model with the Globalization and World Cities research network's measure of globalized service provisioning as the dependent variable and a range of variables focusing on population, infrastructure, urban primacy, and national regulation as ...

  7. Combining observations and models to reduce uncertainty in the cloud response to global warming

    Norris, J. R.; Myers, T.; Chellappan, S.

    2017-12-01

    Currently there is large uncertainty on how subtropical low-level clouds will respond to global warming and whether they will act as a positive feedback or negative feedback. Global climate models substantially agree on what changes in atmospheric structure and circulation will occur with global warming but greatly disagree over how clouds will respond to these changes in structure and circulation. An examination of models with the most realistic simulations of low-level cloudiness indicates that the model cloud response to atmospheric changes associated with global warming is quantitatively similar to the model cloud response to atmospheric changes at interannual time scales. For these models, the cloud response to global warming predicted by multilinear regression using coefficients derived from interannual time scales is quantitatively similar to the cloud response to global warming directly simulated by the model. Since there is a large spread among cloud response coefficients even among models with the most realistic cloud simulations, substitution of coefficients derived from satellite observations reduces the uncertainty range of the low-level cloud feedback. Increased sea surface temperature associated with global warming acts to reduce low-level cloudiness, which is partially offset by increased lower tropospheric stratification that acts to enhance low-level cloudiness. Changes in free-tropospheric relative humidity, subsidence, and horizontal advection have only a small impact on low-level cloud. The net reduction in subtropical low-level cloudiness increases absorption of solar radiation by the climate system, thus resulting in a weak positive feedback.

  8. A mesoscale chemical transport model (MEDIUM) nested in a global chemical transport model (MEDIANTE)

    Claveau, J; Ramaroson, R [Office National d` Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1998-12-31

    The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UT-LS) are frequently subject to mesoscale or local scale exchange of air masses occurring along discontinuities. This exchange (e.g. downward) can constitute one of the most important source of ozone from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere where strong mixing dilutes the air mass and competing the non-linear chemistry. The distribution of the chemical species in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere depends upon various source emissions, e.g. from polluted boundary layer or from aircraft emissions. Global models, as well as chemical transport models describe the climatological state of the atmosphere and are not able to describe correctly the stratosphere and troposphere exchange. Mesoscale models go further in the description of smaller scales and can reasonably include a rather detailed chemistry. They can be used to assess the budget of NO{sub x} from aircraft emissions in a mesoscale domain. (author) 4 refs.

  9. A mesoscale chemical transport model (MEDIUM) nested in a global chemical transport model (MEDIANTE)

    Claveau, J.; Ramaroson, R. [Office National d`Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1997-12-31

    The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (UT-LS) are frequently subject to mesoscale or local scale exchange of air masses occurring along discontinuities. This exchange (e.g. downward) can constitute one of the most important source of ozone from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere where strong mixing dilutes the air mass and competing the non-linear chemistry. The distribution of the chemical species in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere depends upon various source emissions, e.g. from polluted boundary layer or from aircraft emissions. Global models, as well as chemical transport models describe the climatological state of the atmosphere and are not able to describe correctly the stratosphere and troposphere exchange. Mesoscale models go further in the description of smaller scales and can reasonably include a rather detailed chemistry. They can be used to assess the budget of NO{sub x} from aircraft emissions in a mesoscale domain. (author) 4 refs.

  10. Soundscape elaboration from anthrophonic adaptation of community noise

    Teddy Badai Samodra, FX

    2018-03-01

    Under the situation of an urban environment, noise has been a critical issue in affecting the indoor environment. A reliable approach is required for evaluation of the community noise as one factor of anthrophonic in the urban environment. This research investigates the level of noise exposure from different community noise sources and elaborates the advantage of the noise disadvantages for soundscape innovation. Integrated building element design as a protector for noise control and speech intelligibility compliance using field experiment and MATLAB programming and modeling are also carried out. Meanwhile, for simulation analysis and building acoustic optimization, Sound Reduction-Speech Intelligibility and Reverberation Time are the main parameters for identifying tropical building model as case study object. The results show that the noise control should consider its integration with the other critical issue, thermal control, in an urban environment. The 1.1 second of reverberation time for speech activities and noise reduction more than 28.66 dBA for critical frequency (20 Hz), the speech intelligibility index could be reached more than fair assessment, 0.45. Furthermore, the environmental psychology adaptation result “Close The Opening” as the best method in high noise condition and personal adjustment as the easiest and the most adaptable way.

  11. Modeling of the Earth's gravity field using the New Global Earth Model (NEWGEM)

    Kim, Yeong E.; Braswell, W. Danny

    1989-01-01

    Traditionally, the global gravity field was described by representations based on the spherical harmonics (SH) expansion of the geopotential. The SH expansion coefficients were determined by fitting the Earth's gravity data as measured by many different methods including the use of artificial satellites. As gravity data have accumulated with increasingly better accuracies, more of the higher order SH expansion coefficients were determined. The SH representation is useful for describing the gravity field exterior to the Earth but is theoretically invalid on the Earth's surface and in the Earth's interior. A new global Earth model (NEWGEM) (KIM, 1987 and 1988a) was recently proposed to provide a unified description of the Earth's gravity field inside, on, and outside the Earth's surface using the Earth's mass density profile as deduced from seismic studies, elevation and bathymetric information, and local and global gravity data. Using NEWGEM, it is possible to determine the constraints on the mass distribution of the Earth imposed by gravity, topography, and seismic data. NEWGEM is useful in investigating a variety of geophysical phenomena. It is currently being utilized to develop a geophysical interpretation of Kaula's rule. The zeroth order NEWGEM is being used to numerically integrate spherical harmonic expansion coefficients and simultaneously determine the contribution of each layer in the model to a given coefficient. The numerically determined SH expansion coefficients are also being used to test the validity of SH expansions at the surface of the Earth by comparing the resulting SH expansion gravity model with exact calculations of the gravity at the Earth's surface.

  12. Preattentive processing, poststimulus elaboration, and memory for emotionally arousing stimuli.

    Migita, Mai; Otani, Hajime; Libkuman, Terry M; Sheffert, Sonya M

    2011-01-01

    Christianson (1992) proposed two mechanisms to explain emotionally enhanced memory: preattentive processing and poststimulus elaboration. Experiment 1 examined these processes by instructing participants to perform (1) a concurrent distractor task, (2) a continuous distractor task, or (3) both while viewing the negatively arousing, positively arousing, and neutral pictures. Recall of negatively arousing pictures showed a small decline in one of the distractor conditions, indicating that elaboration plays a minor role in remembering these pictures. Experiment 2 partially replicated Experiment 1 with an intentional learning instruction to investigate whether participants in Experiment 1 were anticipating a recall test. For all three picture types, recall declined in the continuous distractor task condition, indicating that elaboration played a role, even when the pictures were negatively arousing. Overall, these results were consistent with the notion that remembering negatively valenced stimuli is largely based on preattentive processing with a minor role played by poststimulus elaboration.

  13. Elaboration of Statistics Learning Objects for Mobile Devices

    Francisco Javier Tapia Moreno

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Mobile learning (m-learning allows a person to study using a mobile computer device anywhere and anytime. In this work we report the elaboration of learning objects for the teaching of introductory statistics using cellular phones.

  14. Spatially explicit modeling of particulate nutrient flux in Large global rivers

    Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Mayorga, E.; Harrison, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water, sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes along river networks have undergone considerable alterations in response to anthropogenic and climatic changes, with significant consequences to infrastructure, agriculture, water security, ecology and geomorphology worldwide. However, in a global setting, these changes in fluvial fluxes and their spatial and temporal characteristics are poorly constrained, due to the limited availability of continuous and long-term observations. We present results from a new global-scale particulate modeling framework (WBMsedNEWS) that combines the Global NEWS watershed nutrient export model with the spatially distributed WBMsed water and sediment model. We compare the model predictions against multiple observational datasets. The results indicate that the model is able to accurately predict particulate nutrient (Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Organic Carbon) fluxes on an annual time scale. Analysis of intra-basin nutrient dynamics and fluxes to global oceans is presented.

  15. GEM-AQ/EC, an on-line global multi-scale chemical weather modelling system: model development and evaluation of global aerosol climatology

    S. L. Gong

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC was developed by implementing tropospheric chemistry and aerosol processes on-line into the Global Environmental Multiscale weather prediction model – GEM. Due to the multi-scale features of the GEM, the integrated model, GEM-AQ/EC, is able to investigate chemical weather at scales from global to urban domains. The current chemical mechanism is comprised of 50 gas-phase species, 116 chemical and 19 photolysis reactions, and is complemented by a sectional aerosol module CAM (The Canadian Aerosol Module with 5 aerosols types: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea-salt and soil dust. Monthly emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon from boreal and temperate vegetation fires were assembled using the most reliable areas burned datasets by countries, from statistical databases and derived from remote sensing products of 1995–2004. The model was run for ten years from from 1995–2004 with re-analyzed meteorology on a global uniform 1° × 1° horizontal resolution domain and 28 hybrid levels extending up to 10 hPa. The simulating results were compared with various observations including surface network around the globe and satellite data. Regional features of global aerosols are reasonably captured including emission, surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For various types of aerosols, satisfactory correlations were achieved between modeled and observed with some degree of systematic bias possibly due to large uncertainties in the emissions used in this study. A global distribution of natural aerosol contributions to the total aerosols is obtained and compared with observations.

  16. Disorder structure of free-flow and global jams in the extended BML model

    Zhao Xiaomei; Xie Dongfan; Jia Bin; Jiang Rui; Gao Ziyou

    2011-01-01

    The original BML model is extended by introducing extended sites, which can hold several vehicles at each time-step. Unexpectedly, the flow in the extended model sharply transits from free-flow to global jams, but the transition is not one-order in original BML model. And congestion in the extended model appears more easily. This can ascribe to the mixture of vehicles from different directions in one site, leading to the drop-off of the capacity of the site. Furthermore, the typical configuration of free flowing and global jams in the extended models is disorder, different from the regular structure in the original model.

  17. Lyapunov functions and global stability for SIR and SEIR models with age-dependent susceptibility

    Korobeinikov, Andrei; Melnik, Andrey V.

    2013-01-01

    We consider global asymptotic properties for the SIR and SEIR age structured models for infectious diseases where the susceptibility depends on the age. Using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra type Lyapunov functions, we establish conditions for the global stability of a unique endemic steady state and the infection-free steady state.

  18. Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

    Weissman, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

  19. To assess and control global change in agriculture through ecosystem models integrated into geographic information systems

    Ponti, L.; Iannetta, M.; Gutierrez, A.P.

    2015-01-01

    The transfer of ENEA PBDM (physiologically based demographic models) GIS technology, represents an opportunity to address global change in agriculture on an ecological basis in a local context, be able to provide European governmental agencies the necessary scientific basis for developing effective policies for adaptation to global change, including climate change [it

  20. A fully traits-based approach to modeling global vegetation distribution

    Bodegom, van P.M.; Douma, J.C.; Verheijen, L.M.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are indispensable for our understanding of climate change impacts. The application of traits in DGVMs is increasingly refined. However, a comprehensive analysis of the direct impacts of trait variation on global vegetation distribution does not yet exist.

  1. Information exchange in global logistics chains : An application for model-based auditing,

    Veenstra, A.W.; Hulstijn, J.; Christiaanse, R.M.J.; Tan, Y.

    2013-01-01

    An integrated data pipeline has been proposed to meet requirements for visibility, supervision and control in global supply chains. How can data integration be used for risk assessment, monitoring and control in global supply chains? We argue that concepts from model-based auditing can be used to

  2. Creating Flexible and Sustainable Work Models for Academic Obstetrician-Gynecologists Engaged in Global Health Work.

    Molina, Rose; Boatin, Adeline; Farid, Huma; Luckett, Rebecca; Neo, Dayna; Ricciotti, Hope; Scott, Jennifer

    2017-10-01

    To describe various work models for obstetrics and gynecology global health faculty affiliated with academic medical centers and to identify barriers and opportunities for pursuing global health work. A mixed-methods study was conducted in 2016 among obstetrics and gynecology faculty and leaders from seven academic medical institutions in Boston, Massachusetts. Global health faculty members were invited to complete an online survey about their work models and to participate in semistructured interviews about barriers and facilitators of these models. Department chairs and residency directors were asked to participate in interviews. The survey response rate among faculty was 65.6% (21/32), of which 76.2% (16/21) completed an interview. Five department leaders (45.5% [5/11]) participated in an interview. Faculty described a range of work models with varied time and compensation, but only one third reported contracted time for global health work. The most common barriers to global health work were financial constraints, time limitations, lack of mentorship, need for specialized training, and maintenance of clinical skills. Career satisfaction, creating value for the obstetrics and gynecology department, and work model flexibility were the most important facilitators of sustainable global health careers. The study identified challenges and opportunities to creating flexible and sustainable work models for academic obstetrics and gynecology clinicians engaged in global health work. Additional research and innovation are needed to identify work models that allow for sustainable careers in global women's health. There are opportunities to create professional standards and models for academic global health work in the obstetrics and gynecology specialty.

  3. Modelling a Global EPCM (Engineering, Procurement and Construction Management Enterprise

    Sekhar Chattopadhyay

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the applicability of enterprise architectures in the context of current business environment by examining the application of Purdue Enterprise Reference Architecture to WorleyParsons, a global engineering, procurement and construction management enterprise, under the backdrop of a similar study carried out on Fluor Daniel during mid-nineties of the last century. The outcome of this study recommends the need for new enterprise architecture, the People-Centric Enterprise Architecture that not only focuses on human dimension in modern enterprises as the central thread, but also includes more business characteristics of the enterprise other than engineerings.

  4. The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis

    Kucherenko, Sergei; Feil, Balazs; Shah, Nilay; Mauntz, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.

  5. The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis

    Kucherenko, Sergei, E-mail: s.kucherenko@ic.ac.u [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Feil, Balazs [Department of Process Engineering, University of Pannonia, Veszprem (Hungary); Shah, Nilay [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Mauntz, Wolfgang [Lehrstuhl fuer Anlagensteuerungstechnik, Fachbereich Chemietechnik, Universitaet Dortmund (Germany)

    2011-04-15

    It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.

  6. The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

    Zhang, Yuying [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Marchand, Roger [University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Kollias, Pavlos [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Clothiaux, Eugene E. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Johnson, Karen [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Swales, Dustin [CIRES and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Tang, Shuaiqi [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Haynes, John M. [Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Collis, Scott [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois; Jensen, Michael [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Bharadwaj, Nitin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Hardin, Joseph [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Isom, Bradley [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-01-01

    Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are

  7. Modelling and development of estimation and control algorithms: application to a bio process; Modelisation et elaboration d`algorithmes d`estimation et de commande: application a un bioprocede

    Maher, M

    1995-02-03

    Modelling, estimation and control of an alcoholic fermentation process is the purpose of this thesis. A simple mathematical model of a fermentation process is established by using experimental results obtained on the plant. This nonlinear model is used for numerical simulation, analysis and synthesis of estimation and control algorithms. The problem of state and parameter nonlinear estimation of bio-processes is studied. Two estimation techniques are developed and proposed to bypass the lack of sensors for certain physical variables. Their performances are studied by numerical simulation. One of these estimators is validated on experimental results of batch and continuous fermentations. An adaptive control by law is proposed for the regulation and tracking of the substrate concentration of the plant by acting on the dilution rate. It is a nonlinear control strategy coupled with the previous validated estimator. The performance of this control law is evaluated by a real application to a continuous flow fermentation process. (author) refs.

  8. Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies.

    Caldeira, Ken; Wood, Lowell

    2008-11-13

    We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.

  9. A simple model of global cascades on random networks

    Watts, Duncan J.

    2002-04-01

    The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascadesherein called global cascadesthat occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable.

  10. A model for diffuse and global irradiation on horizontal surface

    Jain, P.C.

    1984-01-01

    The intensity of the direct radiation and the diffuse radiation at any time on a horizontal surface are each expressed as fractions of the intensity of the extraterrestrial radiation. Using these and assuming a random distribution of the bright sunshine hours and not too wide variations in the values of the transmission coefficients, a number of relations for estimating the global and the diffuse irradiation are derived. Two of the relations derived are already known empirically. The formulation lends more confidence in the use of the already empirically known relations providing them a theoretical basis, and affords more flexibility to the estimation techniques by supplying new equations. The study identifies three independent basic parameters and the constants appearing in the various equations as simple functions of these three basic parameters. Experimental data for the diffuse irradiation, the global irradiation and the bright sunshine duration for Macerata (Italy), Salisbury and Bulawayo (Zimbabwe) is found to show good correlation for the linear equations, and the nature and the interrelationships of the constants are found to be as predicted by the theory

  11. WMAP constraints on inflationary models with global defects

    Bevis, Neil; Hindmarsh, Mark; Kunz, Martin

    2004-01-01

    We use the cosmic microwave background angular power spectra to place upper limits on the degree to which global defects may have aided cosmic structure formation. We explore this under the inflationary paradigm, but with the addition of textures resulting from the breaking of a global O(4) symmetry during the early stages of the Universe. As a measure of their contribution, we use the fraction of the temperature power spectrum that is attributed to the defects at a multipole of 10. However, we find a parameter degeneracy enabling a fit to the first-year WMAP data to be made even with a significant defect fraction. This degeneracy involves the baryon fraction and the Hubble constant, plus the normalization and tilt of the primordial power spectrum. Hence, constraints on these cosmological parameters are weakened. Combining the WMAP data with a constraint on the physical baryon fraction from big bang nucleosynthesis calculations and high-redshift deuterium abundance limits the extent of the degeneracy and gives an upper bound on the defect fraction of 0.13 (95% confidence)

  12. Consolidity: Stack-based systems change pathway theory elaborated

    Hassen Taher Dorrah

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an elaborated analysis for investigating the stack-based layering processes during the systems change pathway. The system change pathway is defined as the path resulting from the combinations of all successive changes induced on the system when subjected to varying environments, activities, events, or any excessive internal or external influences and happenings “on and above” its normal stands, situations or set-points during its course of life. The analysis is essentially based on the important overall system paradigm of “Time driven-event driven-parameters change”. Based on this paradigm, it is considered that any affected activity, event or varying environment is intelligently self-recorded inside the system through an incremental consolidity-scaled change in system parameters of the stack-based layering types. Various joint stack-based mathematical and graphical approaches supported by representable case studies are suggested for the identification, extraction, and processing of various stack-based systems changes layering of different classifications and categorizations. Moreover, some selected real life illustrative applications are provided to demonstrate the (infinite stack-based identification and recognition of the change pathway process in the areas of geology, archeology, life sciences, ecology, environmental science, engineering, materials, medicine, biology, sociology, humanities, and other important fields. These case studies and selected applications revealed that there are general similarities of the stack-based layering structures and formations among all the various research fields. Such general similarities clearly demonstrate the global concept of the “fractals-general stacking behavior” of real life systems during their change pathways. Therefore, it is recommended that concentrated efforts should be expedited toward building generic modular stack-based systems or blocks for the mathematical

  13. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    Matthew R Smith

    Full Text Available Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1 data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2 household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against

  14. Production improves memory equivalently following elaborative vs non-elaborative processing.

    Forrin, Noah D; Jonker, Tanya R; MacLeod, Colin M

    2014-01-01

    Words that are read aloud are better remembered than those read silently. Recent research has suggested that, rather than reflecting a benefit for produced items, this production effect may reflect a cost to reading silently in a list containing both aloud and silent items (Bodner, Taikh, & Fawcett, 2013). This cost is argued to occur because silent items are lazily read, receiving less attention than aloud items which require an overt response. We examined the possible role of lazy reading in the production effect by testing whether the effect would be reduced under elaborative encoding, which precludes lazy reading of silent items. Contrary to a lazy reading account, we found that production benefited generated words as much as read words (Experiment 1) and deeply imagined words as much as shallowly imagined words (Experiment 2). We conclude that production stands out as equally distinct-and consequently as equally memorable-regardless of whether it accompanies deep or shallow processing, evidence that is inconsistent with a lazy reading account.

  15. Updates on Modeling the Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

    Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Montmessin, F.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R.; Klassen, D. R.; Wolff, M. J.

    2017-01-01

    Global Circulation Models (GCMs) have made steady progress in simulating the current Mars water cycle. It is now widely recognized that clouds are a critical component that can significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes in particular are key to implementing clouds in a GCM: the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on heating/ cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress representing these processes in the NASA Ames GCM, particularly in the presence of radiatively active water ice clouds. We present the current state of our group's water cycle modeling efforts, show results from selected simulations, highlight some of the issues, and discuss avenues for further investigation.­

  16. Nursing Care Interpersonal Relationship Questionnaire: elaboration and validation 1

    Borges, José Wicto Pereira; Moreira, Thereza Maria Magalhães; de Andrade, Dalton Franscisco

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: to elaborate an instrument for the measurement of the interpersonal relationship in nursing care through the Item Response Theory, and the validation thereof. Method: methodological study, which followed the three poles of psychometry: theoretical, empirical and analytical. The Nursing Care Interpersonal Relationship Questionnaire was developed in light of the Imogene King’s Interpersonal Conceptual Model and the psychometric properties were studied through the Item Response Theory in a sample of 950 patients attended in Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Health Care. Results: the final instrument consisted of 31 items, with Cronbach’s alpha of 0.90 and McDonald’s Omega of 0.92. The parameters of the Item Response Theory demonstrated high discrimination in 28 items, being developed a five-level interpretive scale. At the first level, the communication process begins, gaining a wealth of interaction. Subsequent levels demonstrate qualitatively the points of effectiveness of the interpersonal relationship with the involvement of behaviors related to the concepts of transaction and interaction, followed by the concept of role. Conclusion: the instrument was created and proved to be consistent to measure interpersonal relationship in nursing care, as it presented adequate reliability and validity parameters. PMID:29319743

  17. Nursing Care Interpersonal Relationship Questionnaire: elaboration and validation

    José Wicto Pereira Borges

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to elaborate an instrument for the measurement of the interpersonal relationship in nursing care through the Item Response Theory, and the validation thereof. Method: methodological study, which followed the three poles of psychometry: theoretical, empirical and analytical. The Nursing Care Interpersonal Relationship Questionnaire was developed in light of the Imogene King’s Interpersonal Conceptual Model and the psychometric properties were studied through the Item Response Theory in a sample of 950 patients attended in Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Health Care. Results: the final instrument consisted of 31 items, with Cronbach’s alpha of 0.90 and McDonald’s Omega of 0.92. The parameters of the Item Response Theory demonstrated high discrimination in 28 items, being developed a five-level interpretive scale. At the first level, the communication process begins, gaining a wealth of interaction. Subsequent levels demonstrate qualitatively the points of effectiveness of the interpersonal relationship with the involvement of behaviors related to the concepts of transaction and interaction, followed by the concept of role. Conclusion: the instrument was created and proved to be consistent to measure interpersonal relationship in nursing care, as it presented adequate reliability and validity parameters.

  18. Nursing Care Interpersonal Relationship Questionnaire: elaboration and validation.

    Borges, José Wicto Pereira; Moreira, Thereza Maria Magalhães; Andrade, Dalton Franscisco de

    2018-01-08

    to elaborate an instrument for the measurement of the interpersonal relationship in nursing care through the Item Response Theory, and the validation thereof. methodological study, which followed the three poles of psychometry: theoretical, empirical and analytical. The Nursing Care Interpersonal Relationship Questionnaire was developed in light of the Imogene King's Interpersonal Conceptual Model and the psychometric properties were studied through the Item Response Theory in a sample of 950 patients attended in Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Health Care. the final instrument consisted of 31 items, with Cronbach's alpha of 0.90 and McDonald's Omega of 0.92. The parameters of the Item Response Theory demonstrated high discrimination in 28 items, being developed a five-level interpretive scale. At the first level, the communication process begins, gaining a wealth of interaction. Subsequent levels demonstrate qualitatively the points of effectiveness of the interpersonal relationship with the involvement of behaviors related to the concepts of transaction and interaction, followed by the concept of role. the instrument was created and proved to be consistent to measure interpersonal relationship in nursing care, as it presented adequate reliability and validity parameters.

  19. Development of a global aerosol model using a two-dimensional sectional method: 1. Model design

    Matsui, H.

    2017-08-01

    This study develops an aerosol module, the Aerosol Two-dimensional bin module for foRmation and Aging Simulation version 2 (ATRAS2), and implements the module into a global climate model, Community Atmosphere Model. The ATRAS2 module uses a two-dimensional (2-D) sectional representation with 12 size bins for particles from 1 nm to 10 μm in dry diameter and 8 black carbon (BC) mixing state bins. The module can explicitly calculate the enhancement of absorption and cloud condensation nuclei activity of BC-containing particles by aging processes. The ATRAS2 module is an extension of a 2-D sectional aerosol module ATRAS used in our previous studies within a framework of a regional three-dimensional model. Compared with ATRAS, the computational cost of the aerosol module is reduced by more than a factor of 10 by simplifying the treatment of aerosol processes and 2-D sectional representation, while maintaining good accuracy of aerosol parameters in the simulations. Aerosol processes are simplified for condensation of sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate, organic aerosol formation, coagulation, and new particle formation processes, and box model simulations show that these simplifications do not substantially change the predicted aerosol number and mass concentrations and their mixing states. The 2-D sectional representation is simplified (the number of advected species is reduced) primarily by the treatment of chemical compositions using two interactive bin representations. The simplifications do not change the accuracy of global aerosol simulations. In part 2, comparisons with measurements and the results focused on aerosol processes such as BC aging processes are shown.

  20. GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water ...

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water Hosing Experiment with 1 Sv equivalent of Freshening Control Expt: 100 yrs After Hosing: 300 yrs.

  1. The Global Rise of the U.S. Community College Model

    Chase-Mayoral, Audree M.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter explores the theoretical and conceptual history of the global rise of the U.S. community college model, focusing on the common missing ingredient that remains elusive among the increasing numbers of these community-based institutions.

  2. Software Test Description (STD) for the Globally Relocatable Navy Tide/Atmospheric Modeling System (PCTides)

    Posey, Pamela

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this Software Test Description (STD) is to establish formal test cases to be used by personnel tasked with the installation and verification of the Globally Relocatable Navy Tide/Atmospheric Modeling System (PCTides...

  3. NACP MsTMIP: Global and North American Driver Data for Multi-Model Intercomparison

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides environmental data that have been standardized and aggregated for use as input to carbon cycle models at global (0.5-degree resolution) and...

  4. NACP MsTMIP: Global and North American Driver Data for Multi-Model Intercomparison

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides environmental data that have been standardized and aggregated for use as input to carbon cycle models at global (0.5-degree...

  5. Supplementary Material for: A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    Boas, Sonja; Navarro, Marí a; Merks, Roeland; Blom, Joke

    2015-01-01

    ) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided

  6. The global change research center atmospheric chemistry model

    Moraes, Jr., Francis Perry [Oregon Graduate Inst. of Science and Technology, Portland, OR (United States)

    1995-01-01

    This work outlines the development of a new model of the chemistry of the natural atmosphere. The model is 2.5-dimensional, having spatial coordinates height, latitude, and, the half-dimension, land and ocean. The model spans both the troposphere and stratosphere, although the troposphere is emphasized and the stratosphere is simple and incomplete. The chemistry in the model includes the Ox, HOx, NOx, and methane cycles in a highly modular fashion which allows model users great flexibility in selecting simulation parameters. A detailed modeled sensitivity analysis is also presented. A key aspect of the model is its inclusion of clouds. The model uses current understanding of the distribution and optical thickness of clouds to determine the true radiation distribution in the atmosphere. As a result, detailed studies of the radiative effects of clouds on the distribution of both oxidant concentrations and trace gas removal are possible. This work presents a beginning of this study with model results and discussion of cloud effects on the hydroxyl radical.

  7. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

    Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2000-06-01

    A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

  8. A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

    Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

  9. Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

    Miyamoto, K.

    2005-12-01

    I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.

  10. Generic global regression models for growth prediction of Salmonella in ground pork and pork cuts

    Buschhardt, Tasja; Hansen, Tina Beck; Bahl, Martin Iain

    2017-01-01

    Introduction and Objectives Models for the prediction of bacterial growth in fresh pork are primarily developed using two-step regression (i.e. primary models followed by secondary models). These models are also generally based on experiments in liquids or ground meat and neglect surface growth....... It has been shown that one-step global regressions can result in more accurate models and that bacterial growth on intact surfaces can substantially differ from growth in liquid culture. Material and Methods We used a global-regression approach to develop predictive models for the growth of Salmonella....... One part of obtained logtransformed cell counts was used for model development and another for model validation. The Ratkowsky square root model and the relative lag time (RLT) model were integrated into the logistic model with delay. Fitted parameter estimates were compared to investigate the effect...

  11. Homogenized global nonlinear constitutive model for RC panels under cyclic loadings

    Huguet, Miquel; Voldoire, Francois; Kotronis, Panagiotis; Erlicher, Silvano

    2014-01-01

    A new nonlinear stress resultant global constitutive model for RC panels is presented. Concrete damage, concrete stress transfer at cracks and bond-slip stress are the main nonlinear effects identified at the local scale that constitute the basis for the construction of the stress resultant global model through an analytical homogenization technique. The closed form solution is obtained using general functions for the previous phenomena. (authors)

  12. Weber’s models of bureaucracy in the age of globalization

    Stojanovski, Strasko; Denkova, Jadranka; Trajkov, Petar

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we make an effort to establish connection between Max Weber’s models of bureaucracy and to apply the same in the context of the globalization. The theoretical bases of modern rational model of bureaucracy can be seen as one of the characteristics of global societies. Furthermore we analyze the function of international organizations as UN, World Bank, IMF etc. The example of European Union and its administrative capacities and structure are showing practical utilization of the m...

  13. A global high-resolution model experiment on the predictability of the atmosphere

    Judt, F.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting high-impact weather phenomena is one of the most important aspects of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Over the last couple of years, a tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving NWP models, which allow for the seamless prediction of weather from local to planetary scales. Unfortunately, the predictability of specific meteorological phenomena in these models is not very well known. This raises questions about which forecast problems are potentially tractable, and what is the value of global convection-resolving model predictions for the end user. To address this issue, we use the Yellowstone supercomputer to conduct a global high-resolution predictability experiment with the recently developed Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The computing power of Yellowstone enables the model to run at a globally uniform resolution of 4 km with 55 vertical levels (>2 billion grid cells). These simulations, which require 3 million core-hours for the entire experiment, allow for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection (i.e., thunderstorm systems). Resolving organized deep moist convection alleviates grave limitations of previous predictability studies, which either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. By computing the error growth characteristics in a set of "identical twin" model runs, the experiment will clarify the intrinsic predictability limits of atmospheric phenomena on a wide range of scales, from severe thunderstorms to global-scale wind patterns that affect the distribution of tropical rainfall. Although a major task by itself, this study is intended to be exploratory work for a future predictability experiment going beyond of what has so far been feasible. We hope to use CISL's new Cheyenne supercomputer to conduct a similar predictability experiments on a global mesh with 1-2 km resolution. This

  14. A vertically resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining global climate model simulations

    G. E. Bodeker

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available High vertical resolution ozone measurements from eight different satellite-based instruments have been merged with data from the global ozonesonde network to calculate monthly mean ozone values in 5° latitude zones. These ''Tier 0'' ozone number densities and ozone mixing ratios are provided on 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km and on 70 pressure levels spaced ~ 1 km apart (878.4 hPa to 0.046 hPa. The Tier 0 data are sparse and do not cover the entire globe or altitude range. To provide a gap-free database, a least squares regression model is fitted to the Tier 0 data and then evaluated globally. The regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Legendre polynomials to account for latitudinal structure, and in Fourier series to account for seasonality. Regression model fit coefficient patterns, which are two dimensional fields indexed by latitude and month of the year, from the N-th vertical level serve as an initial guess for the fit at the N + 1-th vertical level. The initial guess field for the first fit level (20 km/58.2 hPa was derived by applying the regression model to total column ozone fields. Perturbations away from the initial guess are captured through the Legendre and Fourier expansions. By applying a single fit at each level, and using the approach of allowing the regression fits to change only slightly from one level to the next, the regression is less sensitive to measurement anomalies at individual stations or to individual satellite-based instruments. Particular attention is paid to ensuring that the low ozone abundances in the polar regions are captured. By summing different combinations of contributions from different regression model basis functions, four different ''Tier 1'' databases have been compiled for different intended uses. This database is suitable for assessing ozone fields from chemistry-climate model simulations or for providing the ozone boundary conditions for global climate model simulations that do not

  15. Climatology of the HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model - Sea ice general circulation model

    Legutke, S. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1999-12-01

    The HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) climatology, obtained in a long-term forced integration is described. HOPE-G is a primitive-equation z-level ocean model which contains a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. It is formulated on a 2.8 grid with increased resolution in low latitudes in order to better resolve equatorial dynamics. The vertical resolution is 20 layers. The purpose of the integration was both to investigate the models ability to reproduce the observed general circulation of the world ocean and to obtain an initial state for coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea-ice climate simulations. The model was driven with daily mean data of a 15-year integration of the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM4, the atmospheric component in later coupled runs. Thereby, a maximum of the flux variability that is expected to appear in coupled simulations is included already in the ocean spin-up experiment described here. The model was run for more than 2000 years until a quasi-steady state was achieved. It reproduces the major current systems and the main features of the so-called conveyor belt circulation. The observed distribution of water masses is reproduced reasonably well, although with a saline bias in the intermediate water masses and a warm bias in the deep and bottom water of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The model underestimates the meridional transport of heat in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated heat transport in the other basins, though, is in good agreement with observations. (orig.)

  16. Accuracy assessment of global barotropic ocean tide models

    Stammer, D.; Ray, R. D.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2014-01-01

    , but testing in those regions is impeded by the paucity of high-quality in situ tide records. Long-wavelength components of models tested by analyzing satellite laser ranging measurements suggest that several models are comparably accurate for use in precise orbit determination, but analyses of GRACE...

  17. Introducing technology learning for energy technologies in a national CGE model through soft links to global and national energy models

    Martinsen, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a method to model the influence by global policy scenarios, particularly spillover of technology learning, on the energy service demand of the non-energy sectors of the national economy. It is exemplified by Norway. Spillover is obtained from the technology-rich global Energy Technology Perspective model operated by the International Energy Agency. It is provided to a national hybrid model where a national bottom-up Markal model carries forward spillover into a national top-down CGE model at a disaggregated demand category level. Spillover of technology learning from the global energy technology market will reduce national generation costs of energy carriers. This may in turn increase demand in the non-energy sectors of the economy because of the rebound effect. The influence of spillover on the Norwegian economy is most pronounced for the production level of industrial chemicals and for the demand for electricity for residential energy services. The influence is modest, however, because all existing electricity generating capacity is hydroelectric and thus compatible with the low emission policy scenario. In countries where most of the existing generating capacity must be replaced by nascent energy technologies or carbon captured and storage the influence on demand is expected to be more significant. - Highlights: → Spillover of global technology learning may be forwarded into a macroeconomic model. → The national electricity price differs significantly between the different global scenarios. → Soft-linking global and national models facilitate transparency in the technology learning effect chain.

  18. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report

    Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

  19. Global sensitivity analysis of thermomechanical models in modelling of welding; Analyse de sensibilite globale de modeles thermomecanique de simulation numerique du soudage

    Petelet, M

    2008-07-01

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range. This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases.The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)

  20. Global sensitivity analysis of thermo-mechanical models in numerical weld modelling; Analyse de sensibilite globale de modeles thermomecaniques de simulation numerique du soudage

    Petelet, M

    2007-10-15

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range {exclamation_point} This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases. The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)