WorldWideScience

Sample records for global dynamo model

  1. UNDERSTANDING SOLAR TORSIONAL OSCILLATIONS FROM GLOBAL DYNAMO MODELS

    Guerrero, G.; Smolarkiewicz, P. K.; Pino, E. M. de Gouveia Dal; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.

    2016-01-01

    The phenomenon of solar “torsional oscillations” (TO) represents migratory zonal flows associated with the solar cycle. These flows are observed on the solar surface and, according to helioseismology, extend through the convection zone. We study the origin of the TO using results from a global MHD simulation of the solar interior that reproduces several of the observed characteristics of the mean-flows and magnetic fields. Our results indicate that the magnetic tension (MT) in the tachocline region is a key factor for the periodic changes in the angular momentum transport that causes the TO. The torque induced by the MT at the base of the convection zone is positive at the poles and negative at the equator. A rising MT torque at higher latitudes causes the poles to speed up, whereas a declining negative MT torque at the lower latitudes causes the equator to slow-down. These changes in the zonal flows propagate through the convection zone up to the surface. Additionally, our results suggest that it is the magnetic field at the tachocline that modulates the amplitude of the surface meridional flow rather than the opposite as assumed by flux-transport dynamo models of the solar cycle.

  2. Saturn Dynamo Model (Invited)

    Glatzmaier, G. A.

    2010-12-01

    There has been considerable interest during the past few years about the banded zonal winds and global magnetic field on Saturn (and Jupiter). Questions regarding the depth to which the intense winds extend below the surface and the role they play in maintaining the dynamo continue to be debated. The types of computer models employed to address these questions fall into two main classes: general circulation models (GCMs) based on hydrostatic shallow-water assumptions from the atmospheric and ocean modeling communities and global non-hydrostatic deep convection models from the geodynamo and solar dynamo communities. The latter class can be further divided into Boussinesq models, which do not account for density stratification, and anelastic models, which do. Recent efforts to convert GCMs to deep circulation anelastic models have succeeded in producing fluid flows similar to those obtained from the original deep convection anelastic models. We describe results from one of the original anelastic convective dynamo simulations and compare them to a recent anelastic dynamo benchmark for giant gas planets. This benchmark is based on a polytropic reference state that spans five density scale heights with a radius and rotation rate similar to those of our solar system gas giants. The resulting magnetic Reynolds number is about 3000. Better spatial resolution will be required to produce more realistic predictions that capture the effects of both the density and electrical conductivity stratifications and include enough of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum. Important additional physics may also be needed in the models. However, the basic models used in all simulation studies of the global dynamics of giant planets will hopefully first be validated by doing these simpler benchmarks.

  3. The Global Solar Dynamo

    Cameron, R. H.; Dikpati, M.; Brandenburg, A.

    2017-09-01

    A brief summary of the various observations and constraints that underlie solar dynamo research are presented. The arguments that indicate that the solar dynamo is an alpha-omega dynamo of the Babcock-Leighton type are then shortly reviewed. The main open questions that remain are concerned with the subsurface dynamics, including why sunspots emerge at preferred latitudes as seen in the familiar butterfly wings, why the cycle is about 11 years long, and why the sunspot groups emerge tilted with respect to the equator (Joy's law). Next, we turn to magnetic helicity, whose conservation property has been identified with the decline of large-scale magnetic fields found in direct numerical simulations at large magnetic Reynolds numbers. However, magnetic helicity fluxes through the solar surface can alleviate this problem and connect theory with observations, as will be discussed.

  4. A model of the solar cycle driven by the dynamo action of the global convection in the solar convection zone

    Yoshimura, H.

    1976-01-01

    Extensive numerical studies of the dynamo equations due to the global convection are presented to simulate the solar cycle and to open the way to study general stellar magnetic cycles. The dynamo equations which represent the longitudinally-averaged magnetohydrodynamical action (mean magnetohydrodynamics) of the global convection under the influence of the rotation in the solar convection zone are considered here as an initial boundary-value problem. The latitudinal and radial structure of the dynamo action consisting of a generation action due to the differential rotation and a regeneration action due to the global convection is parameterized in accordance with the structure of the rotation and of the global convection. This is done especially in such a way as to represent the presence of the two cells of the regeneration action in the radial direction in which the action has opposite signs, which is typical of the regeneration action of the global convection. The effects of the dynamics of the global convection (e.g., the effects of the stratification of the physical conditions in the solar convection zone) are presumed to be all included in those parameters used in the model and they are presumed not to alter the results drastically since these effects are only to change the structure of the regeneration action topologically. (Auth.)

  5. Numerical models of planetary dynamos

    Glatzmaier, G.A.; Roberts, P.H.

    1992-01-01

    We describe a nonlinear, axisymmetric, spherical-shell model of planetary dynamos. This intermediate-type dynamo model requires a prescribed helicity field (the alpha effect) and a prescribed buoyancy force or thermal wind (the omega effect) and solves for the axisymmetric time-dependent magnetic and velocity fields. Three very different time dependent solutions are obtained from different prescribed sets of alpha and omega fields

  6. DOUBLE DYNAMO SIGNATURES IN A GLOBAL MHD SIMULATION AND MEAN-FIELD DYNAMOS

    Beaudoin, Patrice; Simard, Corinne; Cossette, Jean-François; Charbonneau, Paul [Département de Physique, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, Québec, H3C 3J7 (Canada)

    2016-08-01

    The 11 year solar activity cycle is the most prominent periodic manifestation of the magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) large-scale dynamo operating in the solar interior, yet longer and shorter (quasi-) periodicities are also present. The so-called “quasi-biennial” signal appearing in many proxies of solar activity has been gaining increasing attention since its detection in p -mode frequency shifts, which suggests a subphotospheric origin. A number of candidate mechanisms have been proposed, including beating between co-existing global dynamo modes, dual dynamos operating in spatially separated regions of the solar interior, and Rossby waves driving short-period oscillations in the large-scale solar magnetic field produced by the 11 year activity cycle. In this article, we analyze a global MHD simulation of solar convection producing regular large-scale magnetic cycles, and detect and characterize shorter periodicities developing therein. By constructing kinematic mean-field α {sup 2}Ω dynamo models incorporating the turbulent electromotive force (emf) extracted from that same simulation, we find that dual-dynamo behavior materializes in fairly wide regions of the model’s parameters space. This suggests that the origin of the similar behavior detected in the MHD simulation lies with the joint complexity of the turbulent emf and differential rotation profile, rather that with dynamical interactions such as those mediated by Rossby waves. Analysis of the simulation also reveals that the dual dynamo operating therein leaves a double-period signature in the temperature field, consistent with a dual-period helioseismic signature. Order-of-magnitude estimates for the magnitude of the expected frequency shifts are commensurate with helioseismic measurements. Taken together, our results support the hypothesis that the solar quasi-biennial oscillations are associated with a secondary dynamo process operating in the outer reaches of the solar convection zone.

  7. A model of the solar cycle driven by the dynamo action of the global convection in the solar convection zone

    Yoshimura, H.

    1975-01-01

    The dynamo equation which represents the longitudinally averaged magnetohydrodynamical action of the global convection influenced by the rotation in the solar convection zone is solved numerically to simulate the solar cycle as an initial boundary-value problem. The radial and latitudinal structure of the dynamo action is parametrized in accordance with the structure of the rotation, and of the global convection especially in such a way as to represent the presence of the two cells of the regeneration action in the radial direction in which the action has opposite signs, which is typical of the regeneration action of the global convection. A nonlinear process is included by assuming that part of the magnetic field energy is dissipated when the magnetic field strength exceeds some critical value; the formation of active regions and subsequent dissipations are thus simulated. By adjusting the parameters within a reasonable range, oscillatory solutions are obtained to simulate the solar cycle with the period of the right order of magnitude and with the patterns of evolution of the latitudinal distribution of the toroidal component of the magnetic field similar to the observed Butterfly Diagram of sunspots. The evolution of the latitudinal distribution of the radial component of the magnetic field shows patterns similar to the Butterfly Diagram, but having two branches of different polarity in each hemisphere. The development of the radial structure of the magnetic field associated with the solar cycle is presented. The importance of the poleward migrating branch of the Butterfly Diagram is emphasized in relation to the relative importance of the role of the latitudinal and radial shears of the differential rotation

  8. DIPOLE COLLAPSE AND DYNAMO WAVES IN GLOBAL DIRECT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

    Schrinner, Martin; Dormy, Emmanuel [MAG (ENS/IPGP), LRA, Ecole Normale Superieure, 24 Rue Lhomond, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Petitdemange, Ludovic, E-mail: martin@schrinner.eu [Previously at Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany. (Germany)

    2012-06-20

    Magnetic fields of low-mass stars and planets are thought to originate from self-excited dynamo action in their convective interiors. Observations reveal a variety of field topologies ranging from large-scale, axial dipoles to more structured magnetic fields. In this article, we investigate more than 70 three-dimensional, self-consistent dynamo models in the Boussinesq approximation obtained by direct numerical simulations. The control parameters, the aspect ratio, and the mechanical boundary conditions have been varied to build up this sample of models. Both strongly dipolar and multipolar models have been obtained. We show that these dynamo regimes in general can be distinguished by the ratio of a typical convective length scale to the Rossby radius. Models with a predominantly dipolar magnetic field were obtained, if the convective length scale is at least an order of magnitude larger than the Rossby radius. Moreover, we highlight the role of the strong shear associated with the geostrophic zonal flow for models with stress-free boundary conditions. In this case the above transition disappears and is replaced by a region of bistability for which dipolar and multipolar dynamos coexist. We interpret our results in terms of dynamo eigenmodes using the so-called test-field method. We can thus show that models in the dipolar regime are characterized by an isolated 'single mode'. Competing overtones become significant as the boundary to multipolar dynamos is approached. We discuss how these findings relate to previous models and to observations.

  9. An update of Leighton's solar dynamo model

    Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.

    2017-03-01

    In 1969, Leighton developed a quasi-1D mathematical model of the solar dynamo, building upon the phenomenological scenario of Babcock published in 1961. Here we present a modification and extension of Leighton's model. Using the axisymmetric component (longitudinal average) of the magnetic field, we consider the radial field component at the solar surface and the radially integrated toroidal magnetic flux in the convection zone, both as functions of latitude. No assumptions are made with regard to the radial location of the toroidal flux. The model includes the effects of (I) turbulent diffusion at the surface and in the convection zone; (II) poleward meridional flow at the surface and an equatorward return flow affecting the toroidal flux; (III) latitudinal differential rotation and the near-surface layer of radial rotational shear; (iv) downward convective pumping of magnetic flux in the shear layer; and (v) flux emergence in the form of tilted bipolar magnetic regions treated as a source term for the radial surface field. While the parameters relevant for the transport of the surface field are taken from observations, the model condenses the unknown properties of magnetic field and flow in the convection zone into a few free parameters (turbulent diffusivity, effective return flow, amplitude of the source term, and a parameter describing the effective radial shear). Comparison with the results of 2D flux transport dynamo codes shows that the model captures the essential features of these simulations. We make use of the computational efficiency of the model to carry out an extended parameter study. We cover an extended domain of the 4D parameter space and identify the parameter ranges that provide solar-like solutions. Dipole parity is always preferred and solutions with periods around 22 yr and a correct phase difference between flux emergence in low latitudes and the strength of the polar fields are found for a return flow speed around 2 m s-1, turbulent

  10. Mean-field theory and self-consistent dynamo modeling

    Yoshizawa, Akira; Yokoi, Nobumitsu

    2001-12-01

    Mean-field theory of dynamo is discussed with emphasis on the statistical formulation of turbulence effects on the magnetohydrodynamic equations and the construction of a self-consistent dynamo model. The dynamo mechanism is sought in the combination of the turbulent residual-helicity and cross-helicity effects. On the basis of this mechanism, discussions are made on the generation of planetary magnetic fields such as geomagnetic field and sunspots and on the occurrence of flow by magnetic fields in planetary and fusion phenomena. (author)

  11. SpF: Enabling Petascale Performance for Pseudospectral Dynamo Models

    Jiang, W.; Clune, T.; Vriesema, J.; Gutmann, G.

    2013-12-01

    Pseudospectral (PS) methods possess a number of characteristics (e.g., efficiency, accuracy, natural boundary conditions) that are extremely desirable for dynamo models. Unfortunately, dynamo models based upon PS methods face a number of daunting challenges, which include exposing additional parallelism, leveraging hardware accelerators, exploiting hybrid parallelism, and improving the scalability of global memory transposes. Although these issues are a concern for most models, solutions for PS methods tend to require far more pervasive changes to underlying data and control structures. Further, improvements in performance in one model are difficult to transfer to other models, resulting in significant duplication of effort across the research community. We have developed an extensible software framework for pseudospectral methods called SpF that is intended to enable extreme scalability and optimal performance. High-level abstractions provided by SpF unburden applications of the responsibility of managing domain decomposition and load balance while reducing the changes in code required to adapt to new computing architectures. The key design concept in SpF is that each phase of the numerical calculation is partitioned into disjoint numerical 'kernels' that can be performed entirely in-processor. The granularity of domain-decomposition provided by SpF is only constrained by the data-locality requirements of these kernels. SpF builds on top of optimized vendor libraries for common numerical operations such as transforms, matrix solvers, etc., but can also be configured to use open source alternatives for portability. SpF includes several alternative schemes for global data redistribution and is expected to serve as an ideal testbed for further research into optimal approaches for different network architectures. In this presentation, we will describe the basic architecture of SpF as well as preliminary performance data and experience with adapting legacy dynamo codes

  12. A THREE-DIMENSIONAL BABCOCK-LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL

    Miesch, Mark S.; Dikpati, Mausumi

    2014-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3D) kinematic solar dynamo model in which poloidal field is generated by the emergence and dispersal of tilted sunspot pairs (more generally bipolar magnetic regions, or BMRs). The axisymmetric component of this model functions similarly to previous 2.5 dimensional (2.5D, axisymmetric) Babcock-Leighton (BL) dynamo models that employ a double-ring prescription for poloidal field generation but we generalize this prescription into a 3D flux emergence algorithm that places BMRs on the surface in response to the dynamo-generated toroidal field. In this way, the model can be regarded as a unification of BL dynamo models (2.5D in radius/latitude) and surface flux transport models (2.5D in latitude/longitude) into a more self-consistent framework that builds on the successes of each while capturing the full 3D structure of the evolving magnetic field. The model reproduces some basic features of the solar cycle including an 11 yr periodicity, equatorward migration of toroidal flux in the deep convection zone, and poleward propagation of poloidal flux at the surface. The poleward-propagating surface flux originates as trailing flux in BMRs, migrates poleward in multiple non-axisymmetric streams (made axisymmetric by differential rotation and turbulent diffusion), and eventually reverses the polar field, thus sustaining the dynamo. In this Letter we briefly describe the model, initial results, and future plans

  13. Physical conditions for Jupiter-like dynamo models

    Duarte, Lúcia D. V.; Wicht, Johannes; Gastine, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    The Juno mission will measure Jupiter's magnetic field with unprecedented precision and provide a wealth of additional data that will allow us to constrain the planet's interior structure and dynamics. Here we analyse 66 different numerical simulations in order to explore the sensitivity of the dynamo-generated magnetic field to the planets interior properties. Jupiter field models based on pre-Juno data and up-to-date interior models based on ab initio simulations serve as benchmarks. Our results suggest that Jupiter-like magnetic fields can be found for a number of different models. These complement the steep density gradients in the outer part of the simulated shell with an electrical conductivity profile that mimics the low conductivity in the molecular hydrogen layer and thus renders the dynamo action in this region largely unimportant. We find that whether we assume an ideal gas or use the more realistic interior model based on ab initio simulations makes no difference. However, two other factors are important. A low Rayleigh number leads to a too strong axial dipole contribution while the axial dipole dominance is lost altogether when the convective driving is too strong. The required intermediate range that yields Jupiter-like magnetic fields depends on the other system properties. The second important factor is the convective magnetic Reynolds number radial profile Rmc(r), basically a product of the non-axisymmetric flow velocity and electrical conductivity. We find that the depth where Rmc exceeds about 50 is a good proxy for the top of the dynamo region. When the dynamo region sits too deep, the axial dipole is once more too dominant due to geometric reasons. Extrapolating our results to Jupiter and the result suggests that the Jovian dynamo extends to 95% of the planetary radius. The zonal flow system in our simulations is dominated by an equatorial jet which remains largely confined to the molecular layer. Where the jet reaches down to higher

  14. Modeling the Solar Convective Dynamo and Emerging Flux

    Fan, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Significant advances have been made in recent years in global-scale fully dynamic three-dimensional convective dynamo simulations of the solar/stellar convective envelopes to reproduce some of the basic features of the Sun's large-scale cyclic magnetic field. It is found that the presence of the dynamo-generated magnetic fields plays an important role for the maintenance of the solar differential rotation, without which the differential rotation tends to become anti-solar (with a faster rotating pole instead of the observed faster rotation at the equator). Convective dynamo simulations are also found to produce emergence of coherent super-equipartition toroidal flux bundles with a statistically significant mean tilt angle that is consistent with the mean tilt of solar active regions. The emerging flux bundles are sheared by the giant cell convection into a forward leaning loop shape with its leading side (in the direction of rotation) pushed closer to the strong downflow lanes. Such asymmetric emerging flux pattern may lead to the observed asymmetric properties of solar active regions.

  15. A NEW SIMPLE DYNAMO MODEL FOR STELLAR ACTIVITY CYCLE

    Yokoi, N.; Hamba, F. [Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Schmitt, D. [Max-Planck Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Göttingen D-37077 (Germany); Pipin, V., E-mail: nobyokoi@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Institute of Solar–Terrestrial Physics, Russian Academy of Science, Irkutsk 664033 (Russian Federation)

    2016-06-20

    A new simple dynamo model for stellar activity cycle is proposed. By considering an inhomogeneous flow effect on turbulence, it is shown that turbulent cross helicity (velocity–magnetic-field correlation) enters the expression of turbulent electromotive force as the coupling coefficient for the mean absolute vorticity. This makes the present model different from the current α –Ω-type models in two main ways. First, in addition to the usual helicity ( α ) and turbulent magnetic diffusivity ( β ) effects, we consider the cross-helicity effect as a key ingredient of the dynamo process. Second, the spatiotemporal evolution of cross helicity is solved simultaneously with the mean magnetic fields. The basic scenario is as follows. In the presence of turbulent cross helicity, the toroidal field is induced by the toroidal rotation. Then, as in usual models, the α effect generates the poloidal field from the toroidal one. This induced poloidal field produces a turbulent cross helicity whose sign is opposite to the original one (negative production). With this cross helicity of the reversed sign, a reversal in field configuration starts. Eigenvalue analyses of the simplest possible model give a butterfly diagram, which confirms the above scenario and the equatorward migrations, the phase relationship between the cross helicity and magnetic fields. These results suggest that the oscillation of the turbulent cross helicity is a key for the activity cycle. The reversal of the cross helicity is not the result of the magnetic-field reversal, but the cause of the latter. This new model is expected to open up the possibility of the mean-field or turbulence closure dynamo approaches.

  16. The metastable dynamo model of stellar rotational evolution

    Brown, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces a new empirical model for the rotational evolution of Sun-like stars—those with surface convection zones and non-convective interior regions. Previous models do not match the morphology of observed (rotation period)-color diagrams, notably the existence of a relatively long-lived 'C-sequence' of fast rotators first identified by Barnes. This failure motivates the Metastable Dynamo Model (MDM) described here. The MDM posits that stars are born with their magnetic dynamos operating in a mode that couples very weakly to the stellar wind, so their (initially very short) rotation periods at first change little with time. At some point, this mode spontaneously and randomly changes to a strongly coupled mode, the transition occurring with a mass-dependent lifetime that is of the order of 100 Myr. I show that with this assumption, one can obtain good fits to observations of young clusters, particularly for ages of 150-200 Myr. Previous models and the MDM both give qualitative agreement with the morphology of the slower-rotating 'I-sequence' stars, but none of them have been shown to accurately reproduce the stellar-mass-dependent evolution of the I-sequence stars, especially for clusters older than a few hundred million years. I discuss observational experiments that can test aspects of the MDM, and speculate that the physics underlying the MDM may be related to other situations described in the literature, in which stellar dynamos may have a multi-modal character.

  17. Convection and Dynamo Action in Ice Giant Dynamo Models with Electrical Conductivity Stratification

    Soderlund, K. M.; Featherstone, N. A.; Heimpel, M. H.; Aurnou, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Uranus and Neptune are relatively unexplored, yet critical for understanding the physical and chemical processes that control the behavior and evolution of giant planets. Because their multipolar magnetic fields, three-jet zonal winds, and extreme energy balances are distinct from other planets in our Solar System, the ice giants provide a unique opportunity to test hypotheses for internal dynamics and magnetic field generation. While it is generally agreed that dynamo action in the ionic ocean generates their magnetic fields, the mechanisms that control the morphology, strength, and evolution of the dynamos - which are likely distinct from those in the gas giants and terrestrial planets - are not well understood. We hypothesize that the dynamos and zonal winds are dynamically coupled and argue that their characteristics are a consequence of quasi-three-dimensional turbulence in their interiors. Here, we will present new dynamo simulations with an inner electrically conducting region and outer electrically insulating layer to self-consistently couple the ionic oceans and molecular envelopes of these planets. For each simulation, the magnetic field morphology and amplitude, zonal flow profile, and internal heat flux pattern will be compared against corresponding observations of Uranus and Neptune. We will also highlight how these simulations will both contribute to and benefit from a future ice giant mission.

  18. Low-latitude plasma drifts from a simulation of the global atmospheric dynamo

    Crain, D.J.; Heelis, R.A.; Bailey, G.J.; Richmond, A.D.

    1993-01-01

    The authors work with a dynamo model to address questions about plasma drifts in the E region, primarily at low latitudes. Tidal winds have been known to have a big influence on electric fields in the E region, and magnetic fields and ion drifts in the equatorial F region. Recent work has centered on self consistency in simulations, using realistic wind distributions, 3-D current distributions, and more accurate measures of the currents and conductivities. The wind dynamo in the ionosphere is well accepted as the main source of electric fields in the low and mid latitudes. The authors present a self consistent model of the plasma distribution and the dynamo driven electric potential distribution. Their results are compared with other simulations. A major concern in their model was reproducing ion drift observations in the equatorial region. Their conclusion is that the F region plays a significant role in the low latitude dyanamo effects, much larger than was previously assumed. When they build into their model realistic ionospheric conditions, allow for appropriate wind distributions, and allow a self consistent redistribution of plasma in the night, they find the model simulates measured ion drifts more closely. Their model is normalized against observations at Jicamarca. By allowing E x B drifts in the ionosphere, and F region zonal winds they can reproduce many of the night changes in the ion drifts at Jicamarca

  19. GLOBAL GALACTIC DYNAMO DRIVEN BY COSMIC RAYS AND EXPLODING MAGNETIZED STARS

    Hanasz, Michal; Woltanski, Dominik; Kowalik, Kacper

    2009-01-01

    We report the first results of the first global galactic-scale cosmic ray (CR)-MHD simulations of CR-driven dynamo. We investigate the dynamics of magnetized interstellar medium (ISM), which is dynamically coupled with CR gas. We assume that exploding stars deposit small-scale, randomly oriented, dipolar magnetic fields into the differentially rotating ISM, together with a portion of CRs, accelerated in supernova shocks. We conduct numerical simulations with the aid of a new parallel MHD code PIERNIK. We find that the initial magnetization of galactic disks by exploding magnetized stars forms favorable conditions for the CR-driven dynamo. We demonstrate that dipolar magnetic fields supplied on small supernova remnant scales can be amplified exponentially by the CR-driven dynamo, to the present equipartition values, and transformed simultaneously to large galactic scales. The resulting magnetic field structure in an evolved galaxy appears spiral in the face-on view and reveals the so-called X-shaped structure in the edge-on view.

  20. Core flow inversion tested with numerical dynamo models

    Rau, Steffen; Christensen, Ulrich; Jackson, Andrew; Wicht, Johannes

    2000-05-01

    We test inversion methods of geomagnetic secular variation data for the pattern of fluid flow near the surface of the core with synthetic data. These are taken from self-consistent 3-D models of convection-driven magnetohydrodynamic dynamos in rotating spherical shells, which generate dipole-dominated magnetic fields with an Earth-like morphology. We find that the frozen-flux approximation, which is fundamental to all inversion schemes, is satisfied to a fair degree in the models. In order to alleviate the non-uniqueness of the inversion, usually a priori conditions are imposed on the flow; for example, it is required to be purely toroidal or geostrophic. Either condition is nearly satisfied by our model flows near the outer surface. However, most of the surface velocity field lies in the nullspace of the inversion problem. Nonetheless, the a priori constraints reduce the nullspace, and by inverting the magnetic data with either one of them we recover a significant part of the flow. With the geostrophic condition the correlation coefficient between the inverted and the true velocity field can reach values of up to 0.65, depending on the choice of the damping parameter. The correlation is significant at the 95 per cent level for most spherical harmonic degrees up to l=26. However, it degrades substantially, even at long wavelengths, when we truncate the magnetic data sets to l currents, similar to those seen in core-flow models derived from geomagnetic data, occur in the equatorial region. However, the true flow does not contain this flow component. The results suggest that some meaningful information on the core-flow pattern can be retrieved from secular variation data, but also that the limited resolution of the magnetic core field could produce serious artefacts.

  1. A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. II. REFERENCE DYNAMO SOLUTIONS

    Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid 2 × 2D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). This hybrid model is constructed by allowing the surface flux transport (SFT) simulation described in Lemerle et al. to provide the poloidal source term to an axisymmetric FTD simulation defined in a meridional plane, which in turn generates the BMRs required by the SFT. A key aspect of this coupling is the definition of an emergence function describing the probability of BMR emergence as a function of the spatial distribution of the internal axisymmetric magnetic field. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate this function, together with other model parameters, against observed cycle 21 emergence data. We present a reference dynamo solution reproducing many solar cycle characteristics, including good hemispheric coupling, phase relationship between the surface dipole and the BMR-generating internal field, and correlation between dipole strength at cycle maximum and peak amplitude of the next cycle. The saturation of the cycle amplitude takes place through the quenching of the BMR tilt as a function of the internal field. The observed statistical scatter about the mean BMR tilt, built into the model, acts as a source of stochasticity which dominates amplitude fluctuations. The model thus can produce Dalton-like epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitude lasting a few cycles and can even shut off entirely following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events.

  2. A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. II. REFERENCE DYNAMO SOLUTIONS

    Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul, E-mail: lemerle@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca [Département de physique, Université de Montréal, 2900 Boulevard Édouard-Montpetit, Montréal, QC, H3T 1J4 (Canada)

    2017-01-10

    In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid 2 × 2D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). This hybrid model is constructed by allowing the surface flux transport (SFT) simulation described in Lemerle et al. to provide the poloidal source term to an axisymmetric FTD simulation defined in a meridional plane, which in turn generates the BMRs required by the SFT. A key aspect of this coupling is the definition of an emergence function describing the probability of BMR emergence as a function of the spatial distribution of the internal axisymmetric magnetic field. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate this function, together with other model parameters, against observed cycle 21 emergence data. We present a reference dynamo solution reproducing many solar cycle characteristics, including good hemispheric coupling, phase relationship between the surface dipole and the BMR-generating internal field, and correlation between dipole strength at cycle maximum and peak amplitude of the next cycle. The saturation of the cycle amplitude takes place through the quenching of the BMR tilt as a function of the internal field. The observed statistical scatter about the mean BMR tilt, built into the model, acts as a source of stochasticity which dominates amplitude fluctuations. The model thus can produce Dalton-like epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitude lasting a few cycles and can even shut off entirely following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events.

  3. Effects of anisotropies in turbulent magnetic diffusion in mean-field solar dynamo models

    Pipin, V. V. [Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk 664033 (Russian Federation); Kosovichev, A. G. [Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2014-04-10

    We study how anisotropies of turbulent diffusion affect the evolution of large-scale magnetic fields and the dynamo process on the Sun. The effect of anisotropy is calculated in a mean-field magnetohydrodynamics framework assuming that triple correlations provide relaxation to the turbulent electromotive force (so-called the 'minimal τ-approximation'). We examine two types of mean-field dynamo models: the well-known benchmark flux-transport model and a distributed-dynamo model with a subsurface rotational shear layer. For both models, we investigate effects of the double- and triple-cell meridional circulation, recently suggested by helioseismology and numerical simulations. To characterize the anisotropy effects, we introduce a parameter of anisotropy as a ratio of the radial and horizontal intensities of turbulent mixing. It is found that the anisotropy affects the distribution of magnetic fields inside the convection zone. The concentration of the magnetic flux near the bottom and top boundaries of the convection zone is greater when the anisotropy is stronger. It is shown that the critical dynamo number and the dynamo period approach to constant values for large values of the anisotropy parameter. The anisotropy reduces the overlap of toroidal magnetic fields generated in subsequent dynamo cycles, in the time-latitude 'butterfly' diagram. If we assume that sunspots are formed in the vicinity of the subsurface shear layer, then the distributed dynamo model with the anisotropic diffusivity satisfies the observational constraints from helioseismology and is consistent with the value of effective turbulent diffusion estimated from the dynamics of surface magnetic fields.

  4. A Model of the Turbulent Electric Dynamo in Multi-Phase Media

    Dementyeva, Svetlana; Mareev, Evgeny

    2016-04-01

    Many terrestrial and astrophysical phenomena witness the conversion of kinetic energy into electric energy (the energy of the quasi-stationary electric field) in conducting media, which is natural to treat as manifestations of electric dynamo by analogy with well-known theory of magnetic dynamo. Such phenomena include thunderstorms and lightning in the Earth's atmosphere and atmospheres of other planets, electric activity caused by dust storms in terrestrial and Martian atmospheres, snow storms, electrical discharges occurring in technological setups, connected with intense mixing of aerosol particles like in the milling industry. We have developed a model of the large-scale turbulent electric dynamo in a weakly conducting medium, containing two heavy-particle components. We have distinguished two main classes of charging mechanisms (inductive and non-inductive) in accordance with the dependence or independence of the electric charge, transferred during a particle collision, on the electric field intensity and considered the simplified models which demonstrate the possibility of dynamo realization and its specific peculiarities for these mechanisms. Dynamo (the large-scale electric field growth) appears due to the charge separation between the colliding and rebounding particles. This process is may be greatly intensified by the turbulent mixing of particles with different masses and, consequently, different inertia. The particle charge fluctuations themselves (small-scale dynamo), however, do not automatically mean growth of the large-scale electric field without a large-scale asymmetry. Such an asymmetry arises due to the dependence of the transferred charge magnitude on the electric field intensity in the case of the inductive mechanism of charge separation, or due to the gravity and convection for non-inductive mechanisms. We have found that in the case of the inductive mechanism the large-scale dynamo occurs if the medium conductivity is small enough while the

  5. Towards the geophysical regime in numerical dynamo models: studies of rapidly-rotating convection driven dynamos with low Pm and constant heat flux boundary conditions

    Sheyko, A.A.; Finlay, Chris; Marti, P.

    We present a set of numerical dynamo models with the convection strength varied by a factor of 30 and the ratio of magnetic to viscous diffusivities by a factor of 20 at rapid rotation rates (E =nu/(2 Omega d^2 ) = 10-6 and 10-7 ) using a heat flux outer BC. This regime has been little explored...... on the structure of the dynamos and how this changes in relation to the selection of control parameters, a comparison with the proposed rotating convection and dynamo scaling laws, energy spectra of steady solutions and inner core rotation rates. Magnetic field on the CMB. E=2.959*10-7, Ra=6591.0, Pm=0.05, Pr=1....

  6. DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

    Stefan K Lhachimi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA. A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment, we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. METHODS AND RESULTS: DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. CONCLUSION: By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based

  7. Dynamo generated by the centrifugal instability

    Marcotte, Florence; Gissinger, Christophe

    2016-10-01

    We present a scenario for magnetic field amplification where an electrically conducting fluid is confined in a differentially rotating, spherical shell with thin aspect ratio. When the angular momentum sufficiently decreases outwards, a hydrodynamic instability develops in the equatorial region, characterized by pairs of counter-rotating toroidal vortices similar to those observed in cylindrical Couette flow. These spherical Taylor-Couette vortices generate a subcritical dynamo magnetic field dominated by nonaxisymmetric components. We show that the critical magnetic Reynolds number seems to reach a constant value at large Reynolds number and that the global rotation can strongly decrease the dynamo onset. Our numerical results are understood within the framework of a simple dynamical system, and we propose a low-dimensional model for subcritical dynamo bifurcations. Implications for both laboratory dynamos and astrophysical magnetic fields are finally discussed.

  8. A Single Mode Study of a Quasi-Geostrophic Convection-Driven Dynamo Model

    Plumley, M.; Calkins, M. A.; Julien, K. A.; Tobias, S.

    2017-12-01

    Planetary magnetic fields are thought to be the product of hydromagnetic dynamo action. For Earth, this process occurs within the convecting, turbulent and rapidly rotating outer core, where the dynamics are characterized by low Rossby, low magnetic Prandtl and high Rayleigh numbers. Progress in studying dynamos has been limited by current computing capabilities and the difficulties in replicating the extreme values that define this setting. Asymptotic models that embrace these extreme parameter values and enforce the dominant balance of geostrophy provide an option for the study of convective flows with actual relevance to geophysics. The quasi-geostrophic dynamo model (QGDM) is a multiscale, fully-nonlinear Cartesian dynamo model that is valid in the asymptotic limit of low Rossby number. We investigate the QGDM using a simplified class of solutions that consist of a single horizontal wavenumber which enforces a horizontal structure on the solutions. This single mode study is used to explore multiscale time stepping techniques and analyze the influence of the magnetic field on convection.

  9. Waldmeier's Rules in the Solar and Stellar Dynamos

    Pipin, Valery; Kosovichev, Alexander

    2015-08-01

    The Waldmeier's rules [1] establish important empirical relations between the general parameters of magnetic cycles (such as the amplitude, period, growth rate and time profile) on the Sun and solar-type stars [2]. Variations of the magnetic cycle parameters depend on properties of the global dynamo processes operating in the stellar convection zones. We employ nonlinear mean-field axisymmetric dynamo models [3] and calculate of the magnetic cycle parameters, such as the dynamo cycle period, total magnetic and Poynting fluxes for the Sun and solar-type stars with rotational periods from 15 to 30 days. We consider two types of the dynamo models: 1) distributed (D-type) models employing the standard α - effect distributed in the whole convection zone, and 2) Babcock-Leighton (BL-type) models with a non-local α - effect. The dynamo models take into account the principal mechanisms of the nonlinear dynamo generation and saturation, including the magnetic helicity conservation, magnetic buoyancy effects, and the feedback on the angular momentum balance inside the convection zones. Both types of models show that the dynamo generated magnetic flux increases with the increase of the rotation rate. This corresponds to stronger brightness variations. The distributed dynamo model reproduces the observed dependence of the cycle period on the rotation rate for the Sun analogs better than the BL-type model. For the solar-type stars rotating more rapidly than the Sun we find dynamo regimes with multiple periods. Such stars with multiple cycles form a separate branch in the variability-rotation diagram.1. Waldmeier, M., Prognose für das nächste Sonnenfleckenmaximum, 1936, Astron. Nachrichten, 259,262. Soon,W.H., Baliunas,S.L., Zhang,Q.,An interpretation of cycle periods of stellar chromospheric activity, 1993, ApJ, 414,333. Pipin,V.V., Dependence of magnetic cycle parameters on period of rotation in nonlinear solar-type dynamos, 2015, astro-ph: 14125284

  10. Stochastic disk dynamo as a model of reversals of the Earth's magnetic field

    Ito, H.M.

    1988-01-01

    A stochastic model is given of a system composed of N similar disk dynamos interacting with one another. The time evolution of the system is governed by a master equation of the class introduced by van Kampen as relevant to stochastic macrosystems. In the model, reversals of the Earth's magnetic field are regarded as large deviations caused by a small random force of O(N/sup -1/2/) from one of the field polarities to the other. Reversal processes are studied by simulation, which shows that the model explains well the activities of the paleomagnetic field inclusive of statistical laws of the reversal sequence and the intensity distribution. Comparison are made between the model and dynamical disk dynamo models

  11. A Coupled 2 × 2D Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model. I. Surface Magnetic Flux Evolution

    Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul; Carignan-Dugas, Arnaud

    2015-09-01

    The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series of papers we present one such dynamo model, and document its behavior and properties. This first paper focuses on one of the model’s key components, namely surface magnetic flux evolution. Using a genetic algorithm, we obtain best-fit parameters of the transport model by least-squares minimization of the differences between the associated synthetic synoptic magnetogram and real magnetographic data for activity cycle 21. Our fitting procedure also returns Monte Carlo-like error estimates. We show that the range of acceptable surface meridional flow profiles is in good agreement with Doppler measurements, even though the latter are not used in the fitting process. Using a synthetic database of bipolar magnetic region (BMR) emergences reproducing the statistical properties of observed emergences, we also ascertain the sensitivity of global cycle properties, such as the strength of the dipole moment and timing of polarity reversal, to distinct realizations of BMR emergence, and on this basis argue that this stochasticity represents a primary source of uncertainty for predicting solar cycle characteristics.

  12. A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. I. SURFACE MAGNETIC FLUX EVOLUTION

    Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul; Carignan-Dugas, Arnaud

    2015-01-01

    The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series of papers we present one such dynamo model, and document its behavior and properties. This first paper focuses on one of the model’s key components, namely surface magnetic flux evolution. Using a genetic algorithm, we obtain best-fit parameters of the transport model by least-squares minimization of the differences between the associated synthetic synoptic magnetogram and real magnetographic data for activity cycle 21. Our fitting procedure also returns Monte Carlo-like error estimates. We show that the range of acceptable surface meridional flow profiles is in good agreement with Doppler measurements, even though the latter are not used in the fitting process. Using a synthetic database of bipolar magnetic region (BMR) emergences reproducing the statistical properties of observed emergences, we also ascertain the sensitivity of global cycle properties, such as the strength of the dipole moment and timing of polarity reversal, to distinct realizations of BMR emergence, and on this basis argue that this stochasticity represents a primary source of uncertainty for predicting solar cycle characteristics

  13. A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. I. SURFACE MAGNETIC FLUX EVOLUTION

    Lemerle, Alexandre; Charbonneau, Paul; Carignan-Dugas, Arnaud, E-mail: lemerle@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca [Département de physique, Université de Montréal, 2900 boul. Édouard-Montpetit, Montréal, QC, H3T 1J4 (Canada)

    2015-09-01

    The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series of papers we present one such dynamo model, and document its behavior and properties. This first paper focuses on one of the model’s key components, namely surface magnetic flux evolution. Using a genetic algorithm, we obtain best-fit parameters of the transport model by least-squares minimization of the differences between the associated synthetic synoptic magnetogram and real magnetographic data for activity cycle 21. Our fitting procedure also returns Monte Carlo-like error estimates. We show that the range of acceptable surface meridional flow profiles is in good agreement with Doppler measurements, even though the latter are not used in the fitting process. Using a synthetic database of bipolar magnetic region (BMR) emergences reproducing the statistical properties of observed emergences, we also ascertain the sensitivity of global cycle properties, such as the strength of the dipole moment and timing of polarity reversal, to distinct realizations of BMR emergence, and on this basis argue that this stochasticity represents a primary source of uncertainty for predicting solar cycle characteristics.

  14. Recovery from Maunder-like Grand Minima in a Babcock–Leighton Solar Dynamo Model

    Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark

    2018-06-01

    The Sun occasionally goes through Maunder-like extended grand minima when its magnetic activity drops considerably from the normal activity level for several decades. Many possible theories have been proposed to explain the origin of these minima. However, how the Sun managed to recover from such inactive phases every time is even more enigmatic. The Babcock–Leighton type dynamos, which are successful in explaining many features of the solar cycle remarkably well, are not expected to operate during grand minima due to the lack of a sufficient number of sunspots. In this Letter, we explore the question of how the Sun could recover from grand minima through the Babcock–Leighton dynamo. In our three-dimensional dynamo model, grand minima are produced spontaneously as a result of random variations in the tilt angle of emerging active regions. We find that the Babcock–Leighton process can still operate during grand minima with only a minimal number of sunspots, and that the model can emerge from such phases without the need for an additional generation mechanism for the poloidal field. The essential ingredient in our model is a downward magnetic pumping, which inhibits the diffusion of the magnetic flux across the solar surface.

  15. A DOUBLE-RING ALGORITHM FOR MODELING SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS: UNIFYING KINEMATIC DYNAMO MODELS AND SURFACE FLUX-TRANSPORT SIMULATIONS

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Martens, Petrus C. H.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Yeates, Anthony R.

    2010-01-01

    The emergence of tilted bipolar active regions (ARs) and the dispersal of their flux, mediated via processes such as diffusion, differential rotation, and meridional circulation, is believed to be responsible for the reversal of the Sun's polar field. This process (commonly known as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism) is usually modeled as a near-surface, spatially distributed α-effect in kinematic mean-field dynamo models. However, this formulation leads to a relationship between polar field strength and meridional flow speed which is opposite to that suggested by physical insight and predicted by surface flux-transport simulations. With this in mind, we present an improved double-ring algorithm for modeling the Babcock-Leighton mechanism based on AR eruption, within the framework of an axisymmetric dynamo model. Using surface flux-transport simulations, we first show that an axisymmetric formulation-which is usually invoked in kinematic dynamo models-can reasonably approximate the surface flux dynamics. Finally, we demonstrate that our treatment of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism through double-ring eruption leads to an inverse relationship between polar field strength and meridional flow speed as expected, reconciling the discrepancy between surface flux-transport simulations and kinematic dynamo models.

  16. A simple stochastic model for dipole moment fluctuations in numerical dynamo simulations

    Domenico G. eMeduri

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Earth's axial dipole field changes in a complex fashion on many differenttime scales ranging from less than a year to tens of million years.Documenting, analysing, and replicating this intricate signalis a challenge for data acquisition, theoretical interpretation,and dynamo modelling alike. Here we explore whether axial dipole variationscan be described by the superposition of a slow deterministic driftand fast stochastic fluctuations, i.e. by a Langevin-type system.The drift term describes the time averaged behaviour of the axial dipole variations,whereas the stochastic part mimics complex flow interactions over convective time scales.The statistical behaviour of the system is described by a Fokker-Planck equation whichallows useful predictions, including the average rates of dipole reversals and excursions.We analyse several numerical dynamo simulations, most of which havebeen integrated particularly long in time, and also the palaeomagneticmodel PADM2M which covers the past 2 Myr.The results show that the Langevin description provides a viable statistical modelof the axial dipole variations on time scales longer than about 1 kyr.For example, the axial dipole probability distribution and the average reversalrate are successfully predicted.The exception is PADM2M where the stochastic model reversal rate seems too low.The dependence of the drift on the axial dipolemoment reveals the nonlinear interactions that establish thedynamo balance. A separate analysis of inductive and diffusive magnetic effectsin three dynamo simulations suggests that the classical quadraticquenching of induction predicted by mean-field theory seems at work.

  17. Solar Cycle Variability Induced by Tilt Angle Scatter in a Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model

    Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark

    2017-09-01

    We present results from a three-dimensional Babcock-Leighton (BL) dynamo model that is sustained by the emergence and dispersal of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). On average, each BMR has a systematic tilt given by Joy’s law. Randomness and nonlinearity in the BMR emergence of our model produce variable magnetic cycles. However, when we allow for a random scatter in the tilt angle to mimic the observed departures from Joy’s law, we find more variability in the magnetic cycles. We find that the observed standard deviation in Joy’s law of {σ }δ =15^\\circ produces a variability comparable to the observed solar cycle variability of ˜32%, as quantified by the sunspot number maxima between 1755 and 2008. We also find that tilt angle scatter can promote grand minima and grand maxima. The time spent in grand minima for {σ }δ =15^\\circ is somewhat less than that inferred for the Sun from cosmogenic isotopes (about 9% compared to 17%). However, when we double the tilt scatter to {σ }δ =30^\\circ , the simulation statistics are comparable to the Sun (˜18% of the time in grand minima and ˜10% in grand maxima). Though the BL mechanism is the only source of poloidal field, we find that our simulations always maintain magnetic cycles even at large fluctuations in the tilt angle. We also demonstrate that tilt quenching is a viable and efficient mechanism for dynamo saturation; a suppression of the tilt by only 1°-2° is sufficient to limit the dynamo growth. Thus, any potential observational signatures of tilt quenching in the Sun may be subtle.

  18. MAGNETIC QUENCHING OF TURBULENT DIFFUSIVITY: RECONCILING MIXING-LENGTH THEORY ESTIMATES WITH KINEMATIC DYNAMO MODELS OF THE SOLAR CYCLE

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Martens, Petrus C. H.; Nandy, Dibyendu

    2011-01-01

    The turbulent magnetic diffusivity in the solar convection zone is one of the most poorly constrained ingredients of mean-field dynamo models. This lack of constraint has previously led to controversy regarding the most appropriate set of parameters, as different assumptions on the value of turbulent diffusivity lead to radically different solar cycle predictions. Typically, the dynamo community uses double-step diffusivity profiles characterized by low values of diffusivity in the bulk of the convection zone. However, these low diffusivity values are not consistent with theoretical estimates based on mixing-length theory, which suggest much higher values for turbulent diffusivity. To make matters worse, kinematic dynamo simulations cannot yield sustainable magnetic cycles using these theoretical estimates. In this work, we show that magnetic cycles become viable if we combine the theoretically estimated diffusivity profile with magnetic quenching of the diffusivity. Furthermore, we find that the main features of this solution can be reproduced by a dynamo simulation using a prescribed (kinematic) diffusivity profile that is based on the spatiotemporal geometric average of the dynamically quenched diffusivity. This bridges the gap between dynamically quenched and kinematic dynamo models, supporting their usage as viable tools for understanding the solar magnetic cycle.

  19. Helicity of Solar Active Regions from a Dynamo Model Piyali ...

    - tions with positive and negative helicities are denoted by '+' and 'o' respectively. A flux eruption takes place in our model whenever the toroidal field at the bottom of the SCZ exceeds a critical value. Whenever an eruption takes place in our ...

  20. ESTIMATING THE DEEP SOLAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION USING MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS AND A DYNAMO MODEL: A VARIATIONAL APPROACH

    Hung, Ching Pui; Jouve, Laurène; Brun, Allan Sacha; Fournier, Alexandre; Talagrand, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    We show how magnetic observations of the Sun can be used in conjunction with an axisymmetric flux-transport solar dynamo model in order to estimate the large-scale meridional circulation throughout the convection zone. Our innovative approach rests on variational data assimilation, whereby the distance between predictions and observations (measured by an objective function) is iteratively minimized by means of an optimization algorithm seeking the meridional flow that best accounts for the data. The minimization is performed using a quasi-Newton technique, which requires knowledge of the sensitivity of the objective function to the meridional flow. That sensitivity is efficiently computed via the integration of the adjoint flux-transport dynamo model. Closed-loop (also known as twin) experiments using synthetic data demonstrate the validity and accuracy of this technique for a variety of meridional flow configurations, ranging from unicellular and equatorially symmetric to multicellular and equatorially asymmetric. In this well-controlled synthetic context, we perform a systematic study of the behavior of our variational approach under different observational configurations by varying their spatial density, temporal density, and noise level, as well as the width of the assimilation window. We find that the method is remarkably robust, leading in most cases to a recovery of the true meridional flow to within better than 1%. These encouraging results are a first step toward using this technique to (i) better constrain the physical processes occurring inside the Sun and (ii) better predict solar activity on decadal timescales

  1. ESTIMATING THE DEEP SOLAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION USING MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS AND A DYNAMO MODEL: A VARIATIONAL APPROACH

    Hung, Ching Pui; Jouve, Laurène; Brun, Allan Sacha [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU Université Paris-Diderot CNRS/INSU, F-91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette (France); Fournier, Alexandre [Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Université Paris Diderot UMR 7154 CNRS, F-75005 Paris (France); Talagrand, Olivier [Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique, UMR 8539, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2015-12-01

    We show how magnetic observations of the Sun can be used in conjunction with an axisymmetric flux-transport solar dynamo model in order to estimate the large-scale meridional circulation throughout the convection zone. Our innovative approach rests on variational data assimilation, whereby the distance between predictions and observations (measured by an objective function) is iteratively minimized by means of an optimization algorithm seeking the meridional flow that best accounts for the data. The minimization is performed using a quasi-Newton technique, which requires knowledge of the sensitivity of the objective function to the meridional flow. That sensitivity is efficiently computed via the integration of the adjoint flux-transport dynamo model. Closed-loop (also known as twin) experiments using synthetic data demonstrate the validity and accuracy of this technique for a variety of meridional flow configurations, ranging from unicellular and equatorially symmetric to multicellular and equatorially asymmetric. In this well-controlled synthetic context, we perform a systematic study of the behavior of our variational approach under different observational configurations by varying their spatial density, temporal density, and noise level, as well as the width of the assimilation window. We find that the method is remarkably robust, leading in most cases to a recovery of the true meridional flow to within better than 1%. These encouraging results are a first step toward using this technique to (i) better constrain the physical processes occurring inside the Sun and (ii) better predict solar activity on decadal timescales.

  2. Statistical theory of dynamo

    Kim, E.; Newton, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    One major problem in dynamo theory is the multi-scale nature of the MHD turbulence, which requires statistical theory in terms of probability distribution functions. In this contribution, we present the statistical theory of magnetic fields in a simplified mean field α-Ω dynamo model by varying the statistical property of alpha, including marginal stability and intermittency, and then utilize observational data of solar activity to fine-tune the mean field dynamo model. Specifically, we first present a comprehensive investigation into the effect of the stochastic parameters in a simplified α-Ω dynamo model. Through considering the manifold of marginal stability (the region of parameter space where the mean growth rate is zero), we show that stochastic fluctuations are conductive to dynamo. Furthermore, by considering the cases of fluctuating alpha that are periodic and Gaussian coloured random noise with identical characteristic time-scales and fluctuating amplitudes, we show that the transition to dynamo is significantly facilitated for stochastic alpha with random noise. Furthermore, we show that probability density functions (PDFs) of the growth-rate, magnetic field and magnetic energy can provide a wealth of useful information regarding the dynamo behaviour/intermittency. Finally, the precise statistical property of the dynamo such as temporal correlation and fluctuating amplitude is found to be dependent on the distribution the fluctuations of stochastic parameters. We then use observations of solar activity to constrain parameters relating to the effect in stochastic α-Ω nonlinear dynamo models. This is achieved through performing a comprehensive statistical comparison by computing PDFs of solar activity from observations and from our simulation of mean field dynamo model. The observational data that are used are the time history of solar activity inferred for C14 data in the past 11000 years on a long time scale and direct observations of the sun spot

  3. A BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL WITH MULTI-CELLULAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN ADVECTION- AND DIFFUSION-DOMINATED REGIMES

    Belucz, Bernadett; Forgács-Dajka, Emese; Dikpati, Mausumi

    2015-01-01

    Babcock–Leighton type-solar dynamo models with single-celled meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solar cycle features. Recent observations and theoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celled flow pattern. We examine the role of complex multi-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock–Leighton solar dynamo in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes. We show from simulations that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitude reverse cell speeds up the cycle and slightly enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cell in depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing to an antisolar type. A butterfly diagram constructed from the middle of convection zone yields a solar-like pattern, but this may be difficult to realize in the Sun because of magnetic buoyancy effects. Each of the above cases behaves similarly in higher and lower magnetic diffusivity regimes. However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing four cells in latitude behaves distinctly differently in the two regimes, producing solar-like butterfly diagrams with fast cycles in the higher diffusivity regime, and complex branches in butterfly diagrams in the lower diffusivity regime. We also find that dynamo solutions for a four-celled pattern, two in radius and two in latitude, prefer to quickly relax to quadrupolar parity if the bottom flow speed is strong enough, of similar order of magnitude as the surface flow speed

  4. A BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL WITH MULTI-CELLULAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN ADVECTION- AND DIFFUSION-DOMINATED REGIMES

    Belucz, Bernadett; Forgács-Dajka, Emese [Eötvös University, Department of Astronomy, 1518 Budapest, Pf. 32 (Hungary); Dikpati, Mausumi, E-mail: bbelucz@astro.elte.hu, E-mail: dikpati@ucar.edu [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3080 Center Green, Boulder, CO 80307-3000 (United States)

    2015-06-20

    Babcock–Leighton type-solar dynamo models with single-celled meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solar cycle features. Recent observations and theoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celled flow pattern. We examine the role of complex multi-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock–Leighton solar dynamo in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes. We show from simulations that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitude reverse cell speeds up the cycle and slightly enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cell in depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing to an antisolar type. A butterfly diagram constructed from the middle of convection zone yields a solar-like pattern, but this may be difficult to realize in the Sun because of magnetic buoyancy effects. Each of the above cases behaves similarly in higher and lower magnetic diffusivity regimes. However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing four cells in latitude behaves distinctly differently in the two regimes, producing solar-like butterfly diagrams with fast cycles in the higher diffusivity regime, and complex branches in butterfly diagrams in the lower diffusivity regime. We also find that dynamo solutions for a four-celled pattern, two in radius and two in latitude, prefer to quickly relax to quadrupolar parity if the bottom flow speed is strong enough, of similar order of magnitude as the surface flow speed.

  5. The solar dynamo

    Brandenburg, A.; Helsinki Univ.; Tuominen, I.

    1991-01-01

    The traditional αΩ-dynamo as a model for the solar cycle has been successful in explaining the butterfly diagram, phase relations between poloidal and toroidal field, and polar branch migration features. Observational and theoretical achievements in recent years have however shaken this picture. The current trend is towards dynamos operating in the overshoot region of the convection zone. Nevertheless, there are many open questions and a consistent picture has not been established. In this paper we compare recent approaches and discuss remaining problems. (orig.)

  6. Global Solar Dynamo Models: Simulations and Predictions Mausumi ...

    memory about its past magnetic fields. We show that .... diffuse away in the course of their long traversal to meet with their opposite-hemisphere .... field at the surface is replaced by a surface forcing term that is derived from the waxing.

  7. Ionospheric disturbance dynamo

    Blanc, M.; Richmond, A.D.

    1980-01-01

    A numerical simulation study of the thermospheric winds produced by auroral heating during magnetic storms, and of their global dynamo effects, establishes the main features of the ionospheric disturbanc dynamo. Driven by auroral heating, a Hadley cell is created with equatorward winds blowing above about 120 km at mid-latitudes. The transport of angular momentum by these winds produces a subrotation of the midlatitude thermosphere, or westward motion with respect to the earth. The westward winds in turn drive equatorward Pedersen currents which accumulate charge toward the equator, resulting in the generation of a poleward electric field, a westward E x B drift, and an eastward current. When realistic local time conductivity variations are simulated, the eastward mid-latitude current is found to close partly via lower latitudes, resulting in an 'anti-Sq' type of current vortex. Both electric field and current at low latitudes thus vary in opposition to their normal quiet-day behavior. This total pattern of distrubance winds, electric fields, and currents is superimposed upon the background quiet-day pattern. When the neutral winds are artificially confined on the nightside, the basic pattern of predominantly westward E x B plasma drifts still prevails on the nightside but no longer extends into the dayside. Considerable observational evidence exists, suggesting that the ionospheric disturbance dynamo has an appreciable influence on storm-time ionospheric electric fields at middle and low latitudes

  8. Dynamo: A Model Transition Framework for Dynamic Stability Control and Body Mass Manipulation

    2011-11-01

    driving at high speed, and you turn the steering wheel hard to the right and slam on the brakes, then you will end up in the oversteer regime. At the...sensors (GPS, IMU, LIDAR ) for vehicle control. Figure 17: Dynamo high-speed small UGV hardware platform We will perform experiments to measure the MTC

  9. SMALL-SCALE AND GLOBAL DYNAMOS AND THE AREA AND FLUX DISTRIBUTIONS OF ACTIVE REGIONS, SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND SUNSPOTS: A MULTI-DATABASE STUDY

    Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Windmueller, John C.; Amouzou, Ernest C.; Longcope, Dana W. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Senkpeil, Ryan R. [Department of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Tlatov, Andrey G. [Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of the Pulkovo Observatory, Kislovodsk 357700 (Russian Federation); Nagovitsyn, Yury A. [Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg 196140 (Russian Federation); Pevtsov, Alexei A. [National Solar Observatory, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Chapman, Gary A.; Cookson, Angela M. [San Fernando Observatory, Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State University Northridge, Northridge, CA 91330 (United States); Yeates, Anthony R. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Watson, Fraser T. [National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Balmaceda, Laura A. [Institute for Astronomical, Terrestrial and Space Sciences (ICATE-CONICET), San Juan (Argentina); DeLuca, Edward E. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Martens, Petrus C. H., E-mail: munoz@solar.physics.montana.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States)

    2015-02-10

    In this work, we take advantage of 11 different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions—where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizes the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) 10{sup 21}Mx (10{sup 22}Mx). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behavior of a power-law distribution (when extended to smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection)

  10. Helicity, Reconnection, and Dynamo Effects

    Ji, Hantao

    1998-01-01

    The inter-relationships between magnetic helicity, magnetic reconnection, and dynamo effects are discussed. In laboratory experiments, where two plasmas are driven to merge, the helicity content of each plasma strongly affects the reconnection rate, as well as the shape of the diffusion region. Conversely, magnetic reconnection events also strongly affect the global helicity, resulting in efficient helicity cancellation (but not dissipation) during counter-helicity reconnection and a finite helicity increase or decrease (but less efficiently than dissipation of magnetic energy) during co-helicity reconnection. Close relationships also exist between magnetic helicity and dynamo effects. The turbulent electromotive force along the mean magnetic field (alpha-effect), due to either electrostatic turbulence or the electron diamagnetic effect, transports mean-field helicity across space without dissipation. This has been supported by direct measurements of helicity flux in a laboratory plasma. When the dynamo effect is driven by electromagnetic turbulence, helicity in the turbulent field is converted to mean-field helicity. In all cases, however, dynamo processes conserve total helicity except for a small battery effect, consistent with the observation that the helicity is approximately conserved during magnetic relaxation

  11. Single-Column Modeling of Convection During the CINDY2011/DYNAMO Field Campaign With the CNRM Climate Model Version 6

    Abdel-Lathif, Ahmat Younous; Roehrig, Romain; Beau, Isabelle; Douville, Hervé

    2018-03-01

    A single-column model (SCM) approach is used to assess the CNRM climate model (CNRM-CM) version 6 ability to represent the properties of the apparent heat source (Q1) and moisture sink (Q2) as observed during the 3 month CINDY2011/DYNAMO field campaign, over its Northern Sounding Array (NSA). The performance of the CNRM SCM is evaluated in a constrained configuration in which the latent and sensible heat surface fluxes are prescribed, as, when forced by observed sea surface temperature, the model is strongly limited by the underestimate of the surface fluxes, most probably related to the SCM forcing itself. The model exhibits a significant cold bias in the upper troposphere, near 200 hPa, and strong wet biases close to the surface and above 700 hPa. The analysis of the Q1 and Q2 profile distributions emphasizes the properties of the convective parameterization of the CNRM-CM physics. The distribution of the Q2 profile is particularly challenging. The model strongly underestimates the frequency of occurrence of the deep moistening profiles, which likely involve misrepresentation of the shallow and congestus convection. Finally, a statistical approach is used to objectively define atmospheric regimes and construct a typical convection life cycle. A composite analysis shows that the CNRM SCM captures the general transition from bottom-heavy to mid-heavy to top-heavy convective heating. Some model errors are shown to be related to the stratiform regimes. The moistening observed during the shallow and congestus convection regimes also requires further improvements of this CNRM-CM physics.

  12. GRAND MINIMA AND EQUATORWARD PROPAGATION IN A CYCLING STELLAR CONVECTIVE DYNAMO

    Augustson, Kyle; Miesch, Mark [High Altitude Observatory, Center Green 1, Boulder, CO 80301 (United States); Brun, Allan Sacha [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/DSM–CNRS–Université Paris Diderot, IRFU/SAp, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Toomre, Juri [JILA and Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 (United States)

    2015-08-20

    The 3D MHD Anelastic Spherical Harmonic code, using slope-limited diffusion, is employed to capture convective and dynamo processes achieved in a global-scale stellar convection simulation for a model solar-mass star rotating at three times the solar rate. The dynamo-generated magnetic fields possesses many timescales, with a prominent polarity cycle occurring roughly every 6.2 years. The magnetic field forms large-scale toroidal wreaths, whose formation is tied to the low Rossby number of the convection in this simulation. The polarity reversals are linked to the weakened differential rotation and a resistive collapse of the large-scale magnetic field. An equatorial migration of the magnetic field is seen, which is due to the strong modulation of the differential rotation rather than a dynamo wave. A poleward migration of magnetic flux from the equator eventually leads to the reversal of the polarity of the high-latitude magnetic field. This simulation also enters an interval with reduced magnetic energy at low latitudes lasting roughly 16 years (about 2.5 polarity cycles), during which the polarity cycles are disrupted and after which the dynamo recovers its regular polarity cycles. An analysis of this grand minimum reveals that it likely arises through the interplay of symmetric and antisymmetric dynamo families. This intermittent dynamo state potentially results from the simulation’s relatively low magnetic Prandtl number. A mean-field-based analysis of this dynamo simulation demonstrates that it is of the α-Ω type. The timescales that appear to be relevant to the magnetic polarity reversal are also identified.

  13. An Experimental MHD Dynamo

    Forest, C. B.

    2002-01-01

    The project is designed to understand current and magnetic field generation in plasmas and other magnetohydrodynamic systems. The experiments will investigate the generation of a dynamo using liquid Na

  14. Turbulent Liquid Metal Dynamo Experiments

    Forest, Cary

    2007-01-01

    The self-generation of magnetic fields in planets and stars--the dynamo effect--is a long-standing problem of magnetohydrodynamics and plasma physics. Until recently, research on the self-excitation process has been primarily theoretical. In this talk, I will begin with a tutorial on how magnetic fields are generated in planets and stars, describing the 'Standard Model' of self-excitation known as the alpha-omega dynamo. In this model, axisymmetric differential rotation can produce the majority of the magnetic field, but some non-axisymmetric, turbulence driven currents are also necessary. Understanding the conversion of turbulent kinetic energy in the fluid motion into electrical currents and thus magnetic fields, is a major challenge for both experiments and theory at this time. I will then report on recent results from a 1 meter diameter, spherical, liquid sodium dynamo experiment at the University of Wisconsin, in which the first clear evidence for these turbulence driven currents has been observed.

  15. Stellar convection and dynamo theory

    Jennings, R L

    1989-10-01

    In considering the large scale stellar convection problem the outer layers of a star are modelled as two co-rotating plane layers coupled at a fluid/fluid interface. Heating from below causes only the upper fluid to convect, although this convection can penetrate into the lower fluid. Stability analysis is then used to find the most unstable mode of convection. With parameters appropriate to the Sun the most unstable mode is steady convection in thin cells (aspect ratio {approx equal} 0.2) filling the convection zone. There is negligible vertical motion in the lower fluid, but considerable thermal penetration, and a large jump in helicity at the interface, which has implications for dynamo theory. An {alpha}{omega} dynamo is investigated in isolation from the convection problem. Complexity is included by allowing both latitudinal and time dependence in the magnetic fields. The nonlinear dynamics of the resulting partial differential equations are analysed in considerable detail. On varying the main control parameter D (the dynamo number), many transitions of behaviour are found involving many forms of time dependence, but not chaos. Further, solutions which break equatorial symmetry are common and provide a theoretical explanation of solar observations which have this symmetry. Overall the behaviour was more complicated than expected. In particular, there were multiple stable solutions at fixed D, meaning that similar stars can have very different magnetic patterns, depending upon their history. (author).

  16. Energy fluxes in helical magnetohydrodynamics and dynamo action

    ... large-scale magnetic field arising due to non-helical interactions and (2) inverse energy flux of magnetic energy caused by helical interactions. Based on our flux results, a primitive model for galactic dynamo has been constructed. Our calculations yield dynamo time-scale for a typical galaxy to be of the order of 108 years.

  17. Differential rotation and the solar dynamo

    Stix, M.

    1976-01-01

    A number of numerical models for the generation of mean magnetic fields is examined and the fields are compared with the mean field of the Sun. In particular, αω-dynamos, which are based on differential rotation and cyclonic turbulence, are studied in the case of cylindrical surfaces of isorotation. Such dynamos have an oscillatory antisymmetric field as the most easily excited mode. Only models with an angular velocity which increases with increasing depth appear to be compatible with observations. A search for oscillatory ω x j-dynamos, where the α-effect is replaced by a different mean electric field perpendicular to the rotation vector ω and the mean current density j is also made. Oscillatory modes do exist for models with radial shear. Their migration is equatorwards for inwards increasing angular velocity. (orig./BJ) [de

  18. THE MEAN-FIELD SOLAR DYNAMO WITH A DOUBLE CELL MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION PATTERN

    Pipin, V. V. [Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, 664033 (Russian Federation); Kosovichev, A. G. [Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2013-10-10

    Recent helioseismology findings, as well as advances in direct numerical simulations of global dynamics of the Sun, have indicated that in each solar hemisphere meridional circulation may form more than one cell along the radius in the convection zone. In particular, recent helioseismology results revealed a double-cell structure of the meridional circulation. We investigate properties of a mean-field solar dynamo with such double-cell meridional circulation. The dynamo model also includes the realistic profile of solar differential rotation (including the tachocline and subsurface shear layer) and takes into account effects of turbulent pumping, anisotropic turbulent diffusivity, and conservation of magnetic helicity. Contrary to previous flux-transport dynamo models, we find that the dynamo model can robustly reproduce the basic properties of the solar magnetic cycles for a wide range of model parameters and circulation speeds. The best agreement with observations is achieved when the surface meridional circulation speed is about 12 m s{sup –1}. For this circulation speed, the simulated sunspot activity shows good synchronization with the polar magnetic fields. Such synchronization was indeed observed during previous sunspot Cycles 21 and 22. We compare theoretical and observed phase diagrams of the sunspot number and the polar field strength and discuss the peculiar properties of Cycle 23.

  19. Global Delivery Models

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...

  20. An MHD Dynamo Experiment.

    O'Connell, R.; Forest, C. B.; Plard, F.; Kendrick, R.; Lovell, T.; Thomas, M.; Bonazza, R.; Jensen, T.; Politzer, P.; Gerritsen, W.; McDowell, M.

    1997-11-01

    A MHD experiment is being constructed which will have the possibility of showing dynamo action: the self--generation of currents from fluid motion. The design allows sufficient experimental flexibility and diagnostic access to study a variety of issues central to dynamo theory, including mean--field electrodynamics and saturation (backreaction physics). Initially, helical flows required for dynamo action will be driven by propellers embedded in liquid sodium. The flow fields will first be measured using laser doppler velocimetry in a water experiment with an identical fluid Reynolds number. The magnetic field evolution will then be predicted using a MHD code, replacing the water with sodium; if growing magnetic fields are found, the experiment will be repeated with sodium.

  1. Global ice sheet modeling

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed

  2. A theory of ionospheric dynamo for complete model of terrestrial space at high and medium latitudes

    Vardanyan, Yu.S.

    1992-01-01

    A multi-layer model of terrestrial cosmic space at high and medium latitudes is considered in the approximation of infinite conductivity of the Earth taking into account the ambipolar diffusion processes in upper layers of ionosphere. 14 refs

  3. TIDALLY DRIVEN DYNAMOS IN A ROTATING SPHERE

    Cébron, D.; Hollerbach, R.

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale planetary or stellar magnetic fields generated by a dynamo effect are mostly attributed to flows forced by buoyancy forces in electrically conducting fluid layers. However, these large-scale fields may also be controlled by tides, as previously suggested for the star τ-boo, Mars, or the early Moon. By simulating a small local patch of a rotating fluid, Barker and Lithwick have recently shown that tides can drive small-scale dynamos by exciting a hydrodynamic instability, the so-called elliptical (or tidal) instability. By performing global magnetohydrodynamic simulations of a rotating spherical fluid body, we investigate if this instability can also drive the observed large-scale magnetic fields. We are thus interested in the dynamo threshold and the generated magnetic field in order to test if such a mechanism is relevant for planets and stars. Rather than solving the problem in a geometry deformed by tides, we consider a spherical fluid body and add a body force to mimic the tidal deformation in the bulk of the fluid. This allows us to use an efficient spectral code to solve the magnetohydrodynamic problem. We first compare the hydrodynamic results with theoretical asymptotic results and numerical results obtained in a truly deformed ellipsoid, which confirms the presence of elliptical instability. We then perform magnetohydrodynamic simulations and investigate the dynamo capability of the flow. Kinematic and self-consistent dynamos are finally simulated, showing that the elliptical instability is capable of generating a dipole-dominated large-scale magnetic field in global simulations of a fluid rotating sphere

  4. Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

    Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

  5. Asia: The Global Telecom Dynamo.

    McClelland, Stephen; Weiss, Edward; Sujarto, P. J.; Nakorn, Pria; Kim, B. A.; Chan, Lily; Bromby, Robin

    1997-01-01

    In a 1995 study, Moody's Investors Research found that companies and governments in the Pacific Rim would require $363 billion for essential telecom infrastructure by the end of the decade. Examines the state of communications in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, and New Zealand.…

  6. MHD turbulent dynamo in astrophysics: Theory and numerical simulation

    Chou, Hongsong

    2001-10-01

    This thesis treats the physics of dynamo effects through theoretical modeling of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) systems and direct numerical simulations of MHD turbulence. After a brief introduction to astrophysical dynamo research in Chapter 1, the following issues in developing dynamic models of dynamo theory are addressed: In Chapter 2, nonlinearity that arises from the back reaction of magnetic field on velocity field is considered in a new model for the dynamo α-effect. The dependence of α-coefficient on magnetic Reynolds number, kinetic Reynolds number, magnetic Prandtl number and statistical properties of MHD turbulence is studied. In Chapter 3, the time-dependence of magnetic helicity dynamics and its influence on dynamo effects are studied with a theoretical model and 3D direct numerical simulations. The applicability of and the connection between different dynamo models are also discussed. In Chapter 4, processes of magnetic field amplification by turbulence are numerically simulated with a 3D Fourier spectral method. The initial seed magnetic field can be a large-scale field, a small-scale magnetic impulse, and a combination of these two. Other issues, such as dynamo processes due to helical Alfvénic waves and the implication and validity of the Zeldovich relation, are also addressed in Appendix B and Chapters 4 & 5, respectively. Main conclusions and future work are presented in Chapter 5. Applications of these studies are intended for astrophysical magnetic field generation through turbulent dynamo processes, especially when nonlinearity plays central role. In studying the physics of MHD turbulent dynamo processes, the following tools are developed: (1)A double Fourier transform in both space and time for the linearized MHD equations (Chapter 2 and Appendices A & B). (2)A Fourier spectral numerical method for direct simulation of 3D incompressible MHD equations (Appendix C).

  7. Regionalizing global climate models

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  8. Comparison of Large eddy dynamo simulation using dynamic sub-grid scale (SGS) model with a fully resolved direct simulation in a rotating spherical shell

    Matsui, H.; Buffett, B. A.

    2017-12-01

    The flow in the Earth's outer core is expected to have vast length scale from the geometry of the outer core to the thickness of the boundary layer. Because of the limitation of the spatial resolution in the numerical simulations, sub-grid scale (SGS) modeling is required to model the effects of the unresolved field on the large-scale fields. We model the effects of sub-grid scale flow and magnetic field using a dynamic scale similarity model. Four terms are introduced for the momentum flux, heat flux, Lorentz force and magnetic induction. The model was previously used in the convection-driven dynamo in a rotating plane layer and spherical shell using the Finite Element Methods. In the present study, we perform large eddy simulations (LES) using the dynamic scale similarity model. The scale similarity model is implement in Calypso, which is a numerical dynamo model using spherical harmonics expansion. To obtain the SGS terms, the spatial filtering in the horizontal directions is done by taking the convolution of a Gaussian filter expressed in terms of a spherical harmonic expansion, following Jekeli (1981). A Gaussian field is also applied in the radial direction. To verify the present model, we perform a fully resolved direct numerical simulation (DNS) with the truncation of the spherical harmonics L = 255 as a reference. And, we perform unresolved DNS and LES with SGS model on coarser resolution (L= 127, 84, and 63) using the same control parameter as the resolved DNS. We will discuss the verification results by comparison among these simulations and role of small scale fields to large scale fields through the role of the SGS terms in LES.

  9. Role of asymmetric meridional circulation in producing north-south asymmetry in a solar cycle dynamo model

    Belucz, Bernadett; Dikpati, Mausumi

    2013-01-01

    Solar cycles in the north and south hemispheres differ in cycle length, amplitude, profile, polar fields, and coronal structure. To show what role differences in meridional flow could play in producing these differences, we present the results of three sets of numerical simulations from a flux transport dynamo in which one property of meridional circulation has been changed in the south only. The changes are in amplitude and the presence of a second cell in latitude or in depth. An ascending phase speedup causes weakening of polar and toroidal fields; a speed decrease in a late descending phase does not change amplitudes. A long-duration speed increase leads to lower toroidal field peaks but unchanged polar field peaks. A second high-latitude circulation cell in an ascending phase weakens the next polar and toroidal field peaks, and the ascending phase is lengthened. A second cell in a late descending phase speeds up the cycle. A long-duration second cell leads to a poleward branch of the butterfly diagram and weaker polar fields. A second cell in depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing, decreasing polar fields when added during an ascending phase and increasing them during a late descending phase. A long-duration presence of a second cell in radius evolves the butterfly diagram far away from the observed one, with different dynamo periods in low and high latitudes. Thus, a second cell in depth is unlikely to persist more than a few years if the solar dynamo is advection-dominated. Our results show the importance of time variation and north-south asymmetry in meridional circulation in producing differing cycles in the north and south.

  10. Role of asymmetric meridional circulation in producing north-south asymmetry in a solar cycle dynamo model

    Belucz, Bernadett [Eötvös University, Department of Astronomy, 1518 Budapest, Pf. 32 (Hungary); Dikpati, Mausumi [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3080 Center Green, Boulder, CO 80307-3000 (United States)

    2013-12-10

    Solar cycles in the north and south hemispheres differ in cycle length, amplitude, profile, polar fields, and coronal structure. To show what role differences in meridional flow could play in producing these differences, we present the results of three sets of numerical simulations from a flux transport dynamo in which one property of meridional circulation has been changed in the south only. The changes are in amplitude and the presence of a second cell in latitude or in depth. An ascending phase speedup causes weakening of polar and toroidal fields; a speed decrease in a late descending phase does not change amplitudes. A long-duration speed increase leads to lower toroidal field peaks but unchanged polar field peaks. A second high-latitude circulation cell in an ascending phase weakens the next polar and toroidal field peaks, and the ascending phase is lengthened. A second cell in a late descending phase speeds up the cycle. A long-duration second cell leads to a poleward branch of the butterfly diagram and weaker polar fields. A second cell in depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing, decreasing polar fields when added during an ascending phase and increasing them during a late descending phase. A long-duration presence of a second cell in radius evolves the butterfly diagram far away from the observed one, with different dynamo periods in low and high latitudes. Thus, a second cell in depth is unlikely to persist more than a few years if the solar dynamo is advection-dominated. Our results show the importance of time variation and north-south asymmetry in meridional circulation in producing differing cycles in the north and south.

  11. Magnetic reversals from planetary dynamo waves.

    Sheyko, Andrey; Finlay, Christopher C; Jackson, Andrew

    2016-11-24

    A striking feature of many natural dynamos is their ability to undergo polarity reversals. The best documented example is Earth's magnetic field, which has reversed hundreds of times during its history. The origin of geomagnetic polarity reversals lies in a magnetohydrodynamic process that takes place in Earth's core, but the precise mechanism is debated. The majority of numerical geodynamo simulations that exhibit reversals operate in a regime in which the viscosity of the fluid remains important, and in which the dynamo mechanism primarily involves stretching and twisting of field lines by columnar convection. Here we present an example of another class of reversing-geodynamo model, which operates in a regime of comparatively low viscosity and high magnetic diffusivity. This class does not fit into the paradigm of reversal regimes that are dictated by the value of the local Rossby number (the ratio of advection to Coriolis force). Instead, stretching of the magnetic field by a strong shear in the east-west flow near the imaginary cylinder just touching the inner core and parallel to the axis of rotation is crucial to the reversal mechanism in our models, which involves a process akin to kinematic dynamo waves. Because our results are relevant in a regime of low viscosity and high magnetic diffusivity, and with geophysically appropriate boundary conditions, this form of dynamo wave may also be involved in geomagnetic reversals.

  12. Solar and Stellar Dynamos Saas-Fee Advanced Course 39 Swiss Society for Astrophysics and Astronomy

    2013-01-01

    Astrophysical dynamos are at the heart of cosmic magnetic fields of a wide range of scales, from planets and stars to entire galaxies. This book presents a thorough, step-by-step introduction to solar and stellar dynamos. Looking first at the ultimate origin of cosmic seed magnetic fields, the antagonists of field amplification are next considered: resistive decay, flux expulsion, and flows ruled out by anti-dynamo theorems. Two kinematic flows that can act as dynamos are then studied: the Roberts cell and the CP-flow. Mean-field electrodynamics and derivation of the mean-field dynamo equations lead to the alpha Omega-dynamo, the flux transport dynamo, and dynamos based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. Alternatives to the mean-field theory are also presented, as are global MHD dynamo simulations. Fluctuations and grand minima in the solar cycle are discussed in terms of dynamo modulations through stochastic forcing and nonlinear effects. The book concludes with an overview of the major challenges in underst...

  13. Global Hail Model

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  14. Evolution in Cloud Population Statistics of the MJO: From AMIE Field Observations to Global Cloud-Permiting Models

    Zhang, Chidong [Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, FL (United States)

    2016-08-14

    Motivated by the success of the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign, which collected unprecedented observations of cloud and precipitation from the tropical Indian Ocean in Octber 2011 – March 2012, this project explored how such observations can be applied to assist the development of global cloud-permitting models through evaluating and correcting model biases in cloud statistics. The main accomplishment of this project were made in four categories: generating observational products for model evaluation, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations to validate global model simulations, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations in numerical studies of cloud-permitting models, and providing leadership in the field. Results from this project provide valuable information for building a seamless bridge between DOE ASR program’s component on process level understanding of cloud processes in the tropics and RGCM focus on global variability and regional extremes. In particular, experience gained from this project would be directly applicable to evaluation and improvements of ACME, especially as it transitions to a non-hydrostatic variable resolution model.

  15. A spherical Taylor-Couette dynamo

    Marcotte, Florence; Gissinger, Christophe

    2016-04-01

    We present a new scenario for magnetic field amplification in the planetary interiors where an electrically conducting fluid is confined in a differentially rotating, spherical shell (spherical Couette flow) with thin aspect-ratio. When the angular momentum sufficiently decreases outwards, a primary hydrodynamic instability is widely known to develop in the equatorial region, characterized by pairs of counter-rotating, axisymmetric toroidal vortices (Taylor vortices) similar to those observed in cylindrical Couette flow. We characterize the subcritical dynamo bifurcation due to this spherical Taylor-Couette flow and study its evolution as the flow successively breaks into wavy and turbulent Taylor vortices for increasing Reynolds number. We show that the critical magnetic Reynolds number seems to reach a constant value as the Reynolds number is gradually increased. The role of global rotation on the dynamo threshold and the implications for planetary interiors are finally discussed.

  16. Integral equation approach to time-dependent kinematic dynamos in finite domains

    Xu Mingtian; Stefani, Frank; Gerbeth, Gunter

    2004-01-01

    The homogeneous dynamo effect is at the root of cosmic magnetic field generation. With only a very few exceptions, the numerical treatment of homogeneous dynamos is carried out in the framework of the differential equation approach. The present paper tries to facilitate the use of integral equations in dynamo research. Apart from the pedagogical value to illustrate dynamo action within the well-known picture of the Biot-Savart law, the integral equation approach has a number of practical advantages. The first advantage is its proven numerical robustness and stability. The second and perhaps most important advantage is its applicability to dynamos in arbitrary geometries. The third advantage is its intimate connection to inverse problems relevant not only for dynamos but also for technical applications of magnetohydrodynamics. The paper provides the first general formulation and application of the integral equation approach to time-dependent kinematic dynamos, with stationary dynamo sources, in finite domains. The time dependence is restricted to the magnetic field, whereas the velocity or corresponding mean-field sources of dynamo action are supposed to be stationary. For the spherically symmetric α 2 dynamo model it is shown how the general formulation is reduced to a coupled system of two radial integral equations for the defining scalars of the poloidal and toroidal field components. The integral equation formulation for spherical dynamos with general stationary velocity fields is also derived. Two numerical examples - the α 2 dynamo model with radially varying α and the Bullard-Gellman model - illustrate the equivalence of the approach with the usual differential equation method. The main advantage of the method is exemplified by the treatment of an α 2 dynamo in rectangular domains

  17. Transitions in rapidly rotating convection dynamos

    Tilgner, A.

    2013-12-01

    It is commonly assumed that buoyancy in the fluid core powers the geodynamo. We study here the minimal model of a convection driven dynamo, which is a horizontal plane layer in a gravity field, filled with electrically conducting fluid, heated from below and cooled from above, and rotating about a vertical axis. Such a plane layer may be viewed as a local approximation to the geophysically more relevant spherical geometry. The numerical simulations have been run on graphics processing units with at least 960 cores. If the convection is driven stronger and stronger at fixed rotation rate, the flow behaves at some point as if it was not rotating. This transition shows in the scaling of the heat transport which can be used to distinguish slow from rapid rotation. One expects dynamos to behave differently in these two flow regimes. But even within the convection flows which are rapidly rotating according to this criterion, it will be shown that different types of dynamos exist. In one state, the magnetic field strength obeys a scaling indicative of a magnetostrophic balance, in which the Lorentz force is in equilibrium with the Coriolis force. The flow in this case is helical. A different state exists at higher magnetic Reynolds numbers, in which the magnetic energy obeys a different scaling law and the helicity of the flow is much reduced. As one increases the Rayleigh number, all other parameters kept constant, one may find both types of dynamos separated by an interval of Rayleigh numbers in which there are no dynamos at all. The effect of these transitions on energy dissipation and mean field generation have also been studied.

  18. Saturation of the turbulent dynamo.

    Schober, J; Schleicher, D R G; Federrath, C; Bovino, S; Klessen, R S

    2015-08-01

    The origin of strong magnetic fields in the Universe can be explained by amplifying weak seed fields via turbulent motions on small spatial scales and subsequently transporting the magnetic energy to larger scales. This process is known as the turbulent dynamo and depends on the properties of turbulence, i.e., on the hydrodynamical Reynolds number and the compressibility of the gas, and on the magnetic diffusivity. While we know the growth rate of the magnetic energy in the linear regime, the saturation level, i.e., the ratio of magnetic energy to turbulent kinetic energy that can be reached, is not known from analytical calculations. In this paper we present a scale-dependent saturation model based on an effective turbulent resistivity which is determined by the turnover time scale of turbulent eddies and the magnetic energy density. The magnetic resistivity increases compared to the Spitzer value and the effective scale on which the magnetic energy spectrum is at its maximum moves to larger spatial scales. This process ends when the peak reaches a characteristic wave number k☆ which is determined by the critical magnetic Reynolds number. The saturation level of the dynamo also depends on the type of turbulence and differs for the limits of large and small magnetic Prandtl numbers Pm. With our model we find saturation levels between 43.8% and 1.3% for Pm≫1 and between 2.43% and 0.135% for Pm≪1, where the higher values refer to incompressible turbulence and the lower ones to highly compressible turbulence.

  19. The Global Flood Model

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  20. Global Volcano Model

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  1. Nonlinear dynamo in the intracluster medium

    Beresnyak, Andrey; Miniati, Francesco

    2018-05-01

    Hot plasma in galaxy clusters, the intracluster medium is observed to be magnetized with magnetic fields of around a μG and the correlation scales of tens of kiloparsecs, the largest scales of the magnetic field so far observed in the Universe. Can this magnetic field be used as a test of the primordial magnetic field in the early Universe? In this paper, we argue that if the cluster field was created by the nonlinear dynamo, the process would be insensitive to the value of the initial field. Our model combines state of the art hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy cluster formation in a fully cosmological context with nonlinear dynamo theory. Initial field is not a parameter in this model, yet it predicts magnetic scale and strength compatible with observations.

  2. Small-scale kinematic dynamo and non-dynamo in inertial-range turbulence

    Eyink, Gregory L; Neto, Antonio F

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the Lagrangian mechanism of the kinematic 'fluctuation' magnetic dynamo in a turbulent plasma flow at small magnetic Prandtl numbers. The combined effect of turbulent advection and plasma resistivity is to carry infinitely many field lines to each space point, with the resultant magnetic field at that point given by the average over all the individual line vectors. As a consequence of the roughness of the advecting velocity, this remains true even in the limit of zero resistivity. We show that the presence of the dynamo effect requires sufficient angular correlation of the passive line vectors that arrive simultaneously at the same space point. We illustrate this in detail for the Kazantsev-Kraichnan model of the kinematic dynamo with a Gaussian advecting velocity that is spatially rough and white noise in time. In the regime where dynamo action fails, we also obtain the precise rate of decay of the magnetic energy. These exact results for the model are obtained by a generalization of the 'slow-mode expansion' of Bernard, Gawedzki and Kupiainen to non-Hermitian evolution. Much of our analysis applies also to magnetohydrodynamic turbulence.

  3. New computation results for the solar dynamo

    Csada, I.K.

    1983-01-01

    The analytical solution to the solar dynamo equation leads to a relatively simple algorythm for the computation in terms of kinematic models. The internal and external velocities taken to be in the form of axisymmetric meridional circulation and differential rotation, respectively. Pure radial expanding motions in the corona are also taken into consideration. Numerical results are presented in terms of the velocity parameters for the period of field reversal, decay time, magnitudes and phases of the first four multipoles. (author)

  4. Magnetohydrodynamic dynamos in the presence of fossil magnetic fields

    Boyer, D.W.

    1982-01-01

    A fossil magnetic field embedded in the radiative core of the Sun has been thought possible for some time now. However, such a fossil magnetic field has, a priori, not been considered a visible phenomenon due to the effects of turbulence in the solar convection zone. Since a well developed theory (referred to herein as magnetohydrodynamic dynamo theory) exists for describing the regeneration of magnetic fields in astrophysical objects like the Sun, it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the interaction of a fossil magnetic field with the magnetohydrodynamic dynamo operating in the solar convection zone. In this work, after a brief description of the basic dynamo equations, a spherical model calculation of the solar dynamo is introduced. First, the interaction of a fossil magnetic field with a dynamo in which the regeneration mechanisms of cyclonic convection and large-scale, nonuniform rotation are confined to spherical shells is calculated. It is argued that the amount of amplification or suppression of a fossil magnetic field will be smallest for a uniform distribution of cyclonic convection and nonuniform rotation, as expected in the Sun. Secondly, the interaction of a fossil magnetic field with a dynamo having a uniform distribution of cyclonic convection and large-scale, nonuniform rotation is calculated. It is found that the dipole or quadrupole moments of a fossil magnetic field are suppressed by factors of -0.35 and -0.37, respectively

  5. Statistical Mechanics of Turbulent Dynamos

    Shebalin, John V.

    2014-01-01

    Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much

  6. EFFECTS OF FOSSIL MAGNETIC FIELDS ON CONVECTIVE CORE DYNAMOS IN A-TYPE STARS

    Featherstone, Nicholas A.; Toomre, Juri; Browning, Matthew K.; Brun, Allan Sacha

    2009-01-01

    The vigorous magnetic dynamo action achieved within the convective cores of A-type stars may be influenced by fossil magnetic fields within their radiative envelopes. We study such effects through three-dimensional simulations that model the inner 30% by radius of a 2 M sun A-type star, capturing the convective core and a portion of the overlying radiative envelope within our computational domain. We employ the three-dimensional anelastic spherical harmonic code to model turbulent dynamics within a deep rotating spherical shell. The interaction between a fossil field and the core dynamo is examined by introducing a large-scale magnetic field into the radiative envelope of a mature A star dynamo simulation. We find that the inclusion of a twisted toroidal fossil field can lead to a remarkable transition in the core dynamo behavior. Namely, a super-equipartition state can be realized in which the magnetic energy built by dynamo action is 10-fold greater than the kinetic energy of the convection itself. Such strong-field states may suggest that the resulting Lorentz forces should seek to quench the flows, yet we have achieved super-equipartition dynamo action that persists for multiple diffusion times. This is achieved by the relative co-alignment of the flows and magnetic fields in much of the domain, along with some lateral displacements of the fastest flows from the strongest fields. Convection in the presence of such strong magnetic fields typically manifests as 4-6 cylindrical rolls aligned with the rotation axis, each possessing central axial flows that imbue the rolls with a helical nature. The roll system also possesses core-crossing flows that couple distant regions of the core. We find that the magnetic fields exhibit a comparable global topology with broad, continuous swathes of magnetic field linking opposite sides of the convective core. We have explored several poloidal and toroidal fossil field geometries, finding that a poloidal component is essential

  7. On the saturation of astrophysical dynamos

    Dorch, Bertil; Archontis, Vasilis

    2004-01-01

    In the context of astrophysical dynamos we illustrate that the no-cosines flow, with zero mean helicity, can drive fast dynamo action and we study the dynamo's mode of operation during both the linear and non-linear saturation regimes. It turns out that in addition to a high growth rate in the li......In the context of astrophysical dynamos we illustrate that the no-cosines flow, with zero mean helicity, can drive fast dynamo action and we study the dynamo's mode of operation during both the linear and non-linear saturation regimes. It turns out that in addition to a high growth rate...

  8. A THEORETICAL STUDY OF THE BUILD-UP OF THE SUN’S POLAR MAGNETIC FIELD BY USING A 3D KINEMATIC DYNAMO MODEL

    Hazra, Gopal; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012 (India); Miesch, Mark S., E-mail: ghazra@physics.iisc.ernet.in, E-mail: arnab@physics.iisc.ernet.in, E-mail: miesch@ucar.edu [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301 (United States)

    2017-01-20

    We develop a three-dimensional kinematic self-sustaining model of the solar dynamo in which the poloidal field generation is from tilted bipolar sunspot pairs placed on the solar surface above regions of strong toroidal field by using the SpotMaker algorithm, and then the transport of this poloidal field to the tachocline is primarily caused by turbulent diffusion. We obtain a dipolar solution within a certain range of parameters. We use this model to study the build-up of the polar magnetic field and show that some insights obtained from surface flux transport models have to be revised. We present results obtained by putting a single bipolar sunspot pair in a hemisphere and two symmetrical sunspot pairs in two hemispheres. We find that the polar fields produced by them disappear due to the upward advection of poloidal flux at low latitudes, which emerges as oppositely signed radial flux and which is then advected poleward by the meridional flow. We also study the effect that a large sunspot pair, violating Hale’s polarity law, would have on the polar field. We find that there would be some effect—especially if the anti-Hale pair appears at high latitudes in the mid-phase of the cycle—though the effect is not very dramatic.

  9. The Open Global Glacier Model

    Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

  10. Evolution of Precipitation Structure During the November DYNAMO MJO Event: Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison and Cross Validation Using Radar Observations

    Li, Xiaowen; Janiga, Matthew A.; Wang, Shuguang; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rowe, Angela; Xu, Weixin; Liu, Chuntao; Matsui, Toshihisa; Zhang, Chidong

    2018-04-01

    Evolution of precipitation structures are simulated and compared with radar observations for the November Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Three ground-based, ship-borne, and spaceborne precipitation radars and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs) driven by observed large-scale forcing are used to study precipitation structures at different locations over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Convective strength is represented by 0-dBZ echo-top heights, and convective organization by contiguous 17-dBZ areas. The multi-radar and multi-model framework allows for more stringent model validations. The emphasis is on testing models' ability to simulate subtle differences observed at different radar sites when the MJO event passed through. The results show that CRMs forced by site-specific large-scale forcing can reproduce not only common features in cloud populations but also subtle variations observed by different radars. The comparisons also revealed common deficiencies in CRM simulations where they underestimate radar echo-top heights for the strongest convection within large, organized precipitation features. Cross validations with multiple radars and models also enable quantitative comparisons in CRM sensitivity studies using different large-scale forcing, microphysical schemes and parameters, resolutions, and domain sizes. In terms of radar echo-top height temporal variations, many model sensitivity tests have better correlations than radar/model comparisons, indicating robustness in model performance on this aspect. It is further shown that well-validated model simulations could be used to constrain uncertainties in observed echo-top heights when the low-resolution surveillance scanning strategy is used.

  11. Global Delivery Models

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    -zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  12. Global Delivery Models

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush M.

    2015-01-01

    antecedents and contingencies of setting up GDM structures. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM location configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent and speed of service delivery, in particular when services are highly commoditized...

  13. Faraday's first dynamo: A retrospective

    Smith, Glenn S.

    2013-12-01

    In the early 1830s, Michael Faraday performed his seminal experimental research on electromagnetic induction, in which he created the first electric dynamo—a machine for continuously converting rotational mechanical energy into electrical energy. His machine was a conducting disc, rotating between the poles of a permanent magnet, with the voltage/current obtained from brushes contacting the disc. In his first dynamo, the magnetic field was asymmetric with respect to the axis of the disc. This is to be contrasted with some of his later symmetric designs, which are the ones almost invariably discussed in textbooks on electromagnetism. In this paper, a theoretical analysis is developed for Faraday's first dynamo. From this analysis, the eddy currents in the disc and the open-circuit voltage for arbitrary positioning of the brushes are determined. The approximate analysis is verified by comparing theoretical results with measurements made on an experimental recreation of the dynamo. Quantitative results from the analysis are used to elucidate Faraday's qualitative observations, from which he learned so much about electromagnetic induction. For the asymmetric design, the eddy currents in the disc dissipate energy that makes the dynamo inefficient, prohibiting its use as a practical generator of electric power. Faraday's experiments with his first dynamo provided valuable insight into electromagnetic induction, and this insight was quickly used by others to design practical generators.

  14. Global nuclear material control model

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material

  15. Measurement of the dynamo effect in a plasma

    Ji, H.; Prager, S.C.; Almagri, A.F.; Sarff, J.S.; Hirano, Y.; Toyama, H.

    1995-11-01

    A series of the detailed experiments has been conducted in three laboratory plasma devices to measure the dynamo electric field along the equilibrium field line (the α effect) arising from the correlation between the fluctuating flow velocity and magnetic field. The fluctuating flow velocity is obtained from probe measurement of the fluctuating E x B drift and electron diamagnetic drift. The three major findings are (1) the α effect accounts for the dynamo current generation, even in the time dependence through a ''sawtooth'' cycle; (2) at low collisionality the dynamo is explained primarily by the widely studied pressureless Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, i.e., the fluctuating velocity is dominated by the E x B drift; (3) at high collisionality, a new ''electron diamagnetic dynamo'' is observed, in which the fluctuating velocity is dominated by the diamagnetic drift. In addition, direct measurements of the helicity flux indicate that the dynamo activity transports magnetic helicity from one part of the plasma to another, but the total helicity is roughly conserved, verifying J.B. Taylor's conjecture

  16. THE TURBULENT DYNAMO IN HIGHLY COMPRESSIBLE SUPERSONIC PLASMAS

    Federrath, Christoph [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2611 (Australia); Schober, Jennifer [Universität Heidelberg, Zentrum für Astronomie, Institut für Theoretische Astrophysik, Albert-Ueberle-Strasse 2, D-69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Bovino, Stefano; Schleicher, Dominik R. G., E-mail: christoph.federrath@anu.edu.au [Institut für Astrophysik, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Friedrich-Hund-Platz 1, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany)

    2014-12-20

    The turbulent dynamo may explain the origin of cosmic magnetism. While the exponential amplification of magnetic fields has been studied for incompressible gases, little is known about dynamo action in highly compressible, supersonic plasmas, such as the interstellar medium of galaxies and the early universe. Here we perform the first quantitative comparison of theoretical models of the dynamo growth rate and saturation level with three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical simulations of supersonic turbulence with grid resolutions of up to 1024{sup 3} cells. We obtain numerical convergence and find that dynamo action occurs for both low and high magnetic Prandtl numbers Pm = ν/η = 0.1-10 (the ratio of viscous to magnetic dissipation), which had so far only been seen for Pm ≥ 1 in supersonic turbulence. We measure the critical magnetic Reynolds number, Rm{sub crit}=129{sub −31}{sup +43}, showing that the compressible dynamo is almost as efficient as in incompressible gas. Considering the physical conditions of the present and early universe, we conclude that magnetic fields need to be taken into account during structure formation from the early to the present cosmic ages, because they suppress gas fragmentation and drive powerful jets and outflows, both greatly affecting the initial mass function of stars.

  17. Stellar rotation, dynamo, electromagnetic braking, age an lithium burning

    Schatzmann, E.

    1989-01-01

    After an introduction describing the problem and the observational tests of the theory a consistant model of the dynamo mechanism in rotating star is presented. This provides for the electromagnetic braking a law Ω ∼ (1.t/t c har) -3 / 4 , in good agreement with the observations. This rests on the hypothesis that the main contribution to the EM braking is due to the magnetic field present in bipolar magnetic spots at the surface of the stellar disk. The premain sequence EM braking provides an initial angular velocity on arrival on the main sequence which is slightly smaller than the angular velocity when the dynamo turns on. Starting the dynamo takes place when the level at which the (αΩ) dynamo number becomes larger than one drops below the ionization level of hydrogen. Before that time, the surface dynamo mechanism would take place in a region of low ionization, where the magnetic Reynods number is so small that dissipation overtakes the building of the magnetic field. Turbulent mixing with a turbulent diffusion coefficient proportional to Ω 2 provides a consistant picture of the time and mass dependance of the surface abundance of Lithium. When the level of Li-burning is sufficiently far from the bottom of the convective zone an asymptotic value of lithium abundance is reached. This can explain the anomalous Li abundance of pop.II stars. (author). 40 refs

  18. Feasible homopolar dynamo with sliding liquid-metal contacts

    Priede, Jānis; Avalos-Zúñiga, Raúl

    2013-01-01

    We present a feasible homopolar dynamo design consisting of a flat, multi-arm spiral coil, which is placed above a fast-spinning metal ring and connected to the latter by sliding liquid-metal electrical contacts. Using a simple, analytically solvable axisymmetric model, we determine the optimal design of such a setup. For small contact resistance, the lowest magnetic Reynolds number, Rm~34.6, at which the dynamo can work, is attained at the optimal ratio of the outer and inner radii of the ri...

  19. Systematic parameter study of dynamo bifurcations in geodynamo simulations

    Petitdemange, Ludovic

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the nature of the dynamo bifurcation in a configuration applicable to the Earth's liquid outer core, i.e. in a rotating spherical shell with thermally driven motions with no-slip boundaries. Unlike in previous studies on dynamo bifurcations, the control parameters have been varied significantly in order to deduce general tendencies. Numerical studies on the stability domain of dipolar magnetic fields found a dichotomy between non-reversing dipole-dominated dynamos and the reversing non-dipole-dominated multipolar solutions. We show that, by considering weak initial fields, the above transition disappears and is replaced by a region of bistability for which dipolar and multipolar dynamos coexist. Such a result was also observed in models with free-slip boundaries in which the geostrophic zonal flow can develop and participate to the dynamo mechanism for non-dipolar fields. We show that a similar process develops in no-slip models when viscous effects are reduced sufficiently. The following three regimes are distinguished: (i) Close to the onset of convection (Rac) with only the most critical convective mode (wave number) being present, dynamos set in supercritically in the Ekman number regime explored here and are dipole-dominated. Larger critical magnetic Reynolds numbers indicate that they are particularly inefficient. (ii) in the range 3 10) , the relative importance of zonal flows increases with Ra in non-magnetic models. The field topology depends on the magnitude of the initial magnetic field. The dipolar branch has a subcritical behavior whereas the multipolar branch has a supercritical behavior. By approaching more realistic parameters, the extension of this bistable regime increases. A hysteretic behavior questions the common interpretation for geomagnetic reversals. Far above the dynamo threshold (by increasing the magnetic Prandtl number), Lorentz forces contribute to the first order force balance, as predicted for planetary dynamos. When

  20. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  1. A long-lived lunar dynamo driven by continuous mechanical stirring.

    Dwyer, C A; Stevenson, D J; Nimmo, F

    2011-11-09

    Lunar rocks contain a record of an ancient magnetic field that seems to have persisted for more than 400 million years and which has been attributed to a lunar dynamo. Models of conventional dynamos driven by thermal or compositional convection have had difficulty reproducing the existence and apparently long duration of the lunar dynamo. Here we investigate an alternative mechanism of dynamo generation: continuous mechanical stirring arising from the differential motion, due to Earth-driven precession of the lunar spin axis, between the solid silicate mantle and the liquid core beneath. We show that the fluid motions and the power required to drive a dynamo operating continuously for more than one billion years and generating a magnetic field that had an intensity of more than one microtesla 4.2 billion years ago are readily obtained by mechanical stirring. The magnetic field is predicted to decrease with time and to shut off naturally when the Moon recedes far enough from Earth that the dissipated power is insufficient to drive a dynamo; in our nominal model, this occurred at about 48 Earth radii (2.7 billion years ago). Thus, lunar palaeomagnetic measurements may be able to constrain the poorly known early orbital evolution of the Moon. This mechanism may also be applicable to dynamos in other bodies, such as large asteroids.

  2. New results on an equipartition dynamo

    Dorch, S. B. F.; Archontis, V.

    2006-01-01

    This contribution presents results from numerical computer experiments with a 3-d steady sine flow (with zero mean helicity) that drives fast dynamo action. The mode of operation of this so-called ``no-cosines" dynamo (recently dubbed ``the Archontis dynamo"" by David Galloway) was studied during...... significantly higher that intermittent turbulent dynamos: Namely very close to energy equipartition for high Reynolds numbers. The equipartition solution however is not turbulent but a laminar solution that acts as an attractor to other modes. Similarities and differences, in the way the magnetic field...

  3. Global scale groundwater flow model

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

  4. Dynamical Regimes and the Dynamo Bifurcation in Geodynamo Simulations

    Petitdemange, L.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate the nature of the dynamo bifurcation in a configuration applicable to the Earth's liquid outer core : in a rotating spherical shell with thermally driven motions with no-slip boundaries. Unlike previous studies on dynamo bifurcations, the control parameters have been varied significantly in order to deduce general tendencies. Numerical studies on the stability domain of dipolar magnetic fields found a dichotomy between non-reversing dipole-dominated dynamos and the reversing non-dipole-dominated multipolar solutions. We show that, by considering weak initial fields, the above transition is replaced by a region of bistability for which dipolar and multipolar dynamos coexist. Such a result was also observed in models with free-slip boundaries in which the strong shear of geostrophic zonal flows can develop and gives rise to non-dipolar fields. We show that a similar process develops in no-slip models when viscous effects are reduced sufficiently.Close to the onset of convection (Rac), the axial dipole grows exponentially in the kinematic phase and saturation occurs by marginally changing the flow structure close to the dynamo threshold Rmc. The resulting bifurcation is then supercritical.In the range 3RacIf (Ra/Ra_c>10), important zonal flows develop in non-magnetic models with low viscosity. The field topology depends on the initial magnetic field. The dipolar branch has a subcritical behaviour whereas the multipolar branch is supercritical. By approaching more realistic parameters, the extension of this bistable regime increases (lower Rossby numbers). An hysteretic behaviour questions the common interpretation for geomagnetic reversals. Far above Rm_c$, the Lorentz force becomes dominant, as it is expected in planetary cores.

  5. Gravitational dynamos and the low-frequency geomagnetic secular variation.

    Olson, P

    2007-12-18

    Self-sustaining numerical dynamos are used to infer the sources of low-frequency secular variation of the geomagnetic field. Gravitational dynamo models powered by compositional convection in an electrically conducting, rotating fluid shell exhibit several regimes of magnetic field behavior with an increasing Rayleigh number of the convection, including nearly steady dipoles, chaotic nonreversing dipoles, and chaotic reversing dipoles. The time average dipole strength and dipolarity of the magnetic field decrease, whereas the dipole variability, average dipole tilt angle, and frequency of polarity reversals increase with Rayleigh number. Chaotic gravitational dynamos have large-amplitude dipole secular variation with maximum power at frequencies corresponding to a few cycles per million years on Earth. Their external magnetic field structure, dipole statistics, low-frequency power spectra, and polarity reversal frequency are comparable to the geomagnetic field. The magnetic variability is driven by the Lorentz force and is characterized by an inverse correlation between dynamo magnetic and kinetic energy fluctuations. A constant energy dissipation theory accounts for this inverse energy correlation, which is shown to produce conditions favorable for dipole drift, polarity reversals, and excursions.

  6. Turbulent transport coefficients in spherical wedge dynamo simulations of solar-like stars

    Warnecke, J.; Rheinhardt, M.; Tuomisto, S.; Käpylä, P. J.; Käpylä, M. J.; Brandenburg, A.

    2018-01-01

    Aims: We investigate dynamo action in global compressible solar-like convective dynamos in the framework of mean-field theory. Methods: We simulate a solar-type star in a wedge-shaped spherical shell, where the interplay between convection and rotation self-consistently drives a large-scale dynamo. To analyze the dynamo mechanism we apply the test-field method for azimuthally (φ) averaged fields to determine the 27 turbulent transport coefficients of the electromotive force, of which six are related to the α tensor. This method has previously been used either in simulations in Cartesian coordinates or in the geodynamo context and is applied here for the first time to fully compressible simulations of solar-like dynamos. Results: We find that the φφ-component of the α tensor does not follow the profile expected from that of kinetic helicity. The turbulent pumping velocities significantly alter the effective mean flows acting on the magnetic field and therefore challenge the flux transport dynamo concept. All coefficients are significantly affected by dynamically important magnetic fields. Quenching as well as enhancement are being observed. This leads to a modulation of the coefficients with the activity cycle. The temporal variations are found to be comparable to the time-averaged values and seem to be responsible for a nonlinear feedback on the magnetic field generation. Furthermore, we quantify the validity of the Parker-Yoshimura rule for the equatorward propagation of the mean magnetic field in the present case.

  7. Nonlinear MHD dynamo operating at equipartition

    Archontis, V.; Dorch, Bertil; Nordlund, Åke

    2007-01-01

    Context.We present results from non linear MHD dynamo experiments with a three-dimensional steady and smooth flow that drives fast dynamo action in the kinematic regime. In the saturation regime, the system yields strong magnetic fields, which undergo transitions between an energy-equipartition a......Context.We present results from non linear MHD dynamo experiments with a three-dimensional steady and smooth flow that drives fast dynamo action in the kinematic regime. In the saturation regime, the system yields strong magnetic fields, which undergo transitions between an energy......, and that it can saturate at a level significantly higher than intermittent turbulent dynamos, namely at energy equipartition, for high values of the magnetic and fluid Reynolds numbers. The equipartition solution however does not remain time-independent during the simulation but exhibits a much more intricate...

  8. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  9. Solar Dynamo Driven by Periodic Flow Oscillation

    Mayr, Hans G.; Hartle, Richard E.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We have proposed that the periodicity of the solar magnetic cycle is determined by wave mean flow interactions analogous to those driving the Quasi Biennial Oscillation in the Earth's atmosphere. Upward propagating gravity waves would produce oscillating flows near the top of the radiation zone that in turn would drive a kinematic dynamo to generate the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. The dynamo we propose is built on a given time independent magnetic field B, which allows us to estimate the time dependent, oscillating components of the magnetic field, (Delta)B. The toroidal magnetic field (Delta)B(sub phi) is directly driven by zonal flow and is relatively large in the source region, (Delta)(sub phi)/B(sub Theta) much greater than 1. Consistent with observations, this field peaks at low latitudes and has opposite polarities in both hemispheres. The oscillating poloidal magnetic field component, (Delta)B(sub Theta), is driven by the meridional circulation, which is difficult to assess without a numerical model that properly accounts for the solar atmosphere dynamics. Scale-analysis suggests that (Delta)B(sub Theta) is small compared to B(sub Theta) in the dynamo region. Relative to B(sub Theta), however, the oscillating magnetic field perturbations are expected to be transported more rapidly upwards in the convection zone to the solar surface. As a result, (Delta)B(sub Theta) (and (Delta)B(sub phi)) should grow relative to B(sub Theta), so that the magnetic fields reverse at the surface as observed. Since the meridional and zonai flow oscillations are out of phase, the poloidal magnetic field peaks during times when the toroidal field reverses direction, which is observed. With the proposed wave driven flow oscillation, the magnitude of the oscillating poloidal magnetic field increases with the mean rotation rate of the fluid. This is consistent with the Bode-Blackett empirical scaling law, which reveals that in massive astrophysical bodies the magnetic moment tends

  10. A basal magma ocean dynamo to explain the early lunar magnetic field

    Scheinberg, Aaron L.; Soderlund, Krista M.; Elkins-Tanton, Linda T.

    2018-06-01

    The source of the ancient lunar magnetic field is an unsolved problem in the Moon's evolution. Theoretical work invoking a core dynamo has been unable to explain the magnitude of the observed field, falling instead one to two orders of magnitude below it. Since surface magnetic field strength is highly sensitive to the depth and size of the dynamo region, we instead hypothesize that the early lunar dynamo was driven by convection in a basal magma ocean formed from the final stages of an early lunar magma ocean; this material is expected to be dense, radioactive, and metalliferous. Here we use numerical convection models to predict the longevity and heat flow of such a basal magma ocean and use scaling laws to estimate the resulting magnetic field strength. We show that, if sufficiently electrically conducting, a magma ocean could have produced an early dynamo with surface fields consistent with the paleomagnetic observations.

  11. Takaful Models and Global Practices

    Akhter, Waheed

    2010-01-01

    There is a global interest in Islamic finance in general and Takāful in particular. The main feature that differentiates Takāful services from conventional ones is Sharī‟ah compliance nature of these services. Investors are taking keen interest in this potential market as Muslims constitute about one fourth of the world population (Muslim population, 2006). To streamline operations of a Takāful company, management and Sharī‟ah experts have developed different operational models for Takāful bu...

  12. A study of the required Rayleigh number to sustain dynamo with various inner core radius

    Nishida, Y.; Katoh, Y.; Matsui, H.; Kumamoto, A.

    2017-12-01

    It is widely accepted that the geomagnetic field is sustained by thermal and compositional driven convections of a liquid iron alloy in the outer core. The generation process of the geomagnetic field has been studied by a number of MHD dynamo simulations. Recent studies of the ratio of the Earth's core evolution suggest that the inner solid core radius ri to the outer liquid core radius ro changed from ri/ro = 0 to 0.35 during the last one billion years. There are some studies of dynamo in the early Earth with smaller inner core than the present. Heimpel et al. (2005) revealed the Rayleigh number Ra of the onset of dynamo process as a function of ri/ro from simulation, while paleomagnetic observation shows that the geomagnetic field has been sustained for 3.5 billion years. While Heimpel and Evans (2013) studied dynamo processes taking into account the thermal history of the Earth's interior, there were few cases corresponding to the early Earth. Driscoll (2016) performed a series of dynamo based on a thermal evolution model. Despite a number of dynamo simulations, dynamo process occurring in the interior of the early Earth has not been fully understood because the magnetic Prandtl numbers in these simulations are much larger than that for the actual outer core.In the present study, we performed thermally driven dynamo simulations with different aspect ratio ri/ro = 0.15, 0.25 and 0.35 to evaluate the critical Ra for the thermal convection and required Ra to maintain the dynamo. For this purpose, we performed simulations with various Ra and fixed the other control parameters such as the Ekman, Prandtl, and magnetic Prandtl numbers. For the initial condition and boundary conditions, we followed the dynamo benchmark case 1 by Christensen et al. (2001). The results show that the critical Ra increases with the smaller aspect ratio ri/ro. It is confirmed that larger amplitude of buoyancy is required in the smaller inner core to maintain dynamo.

  13. Some consequences of shear on galactic dynamos with helicity fluxes

    Zhou, Hongzhe; Blackman, Eric G.

    2017-08-01

    Galactic dynamo models sustained by supernova (SN) driven turbulence and differential rotation have revealed that the sustenance of large-scale fields requires a flux of small-scale magnetic helicity to be viable. Here we generalize a minimalist analytic version of such galactic dynamos to explore some heretofore unincluded contributions from shear on the total turbulent energy and turbulent correlation time, with the helicity fluxes maintained by either winds, diffusion or magnetic buoyancy. We construct an analytic framework for modelling the turbulent energy and correlation time as a function of SN rate and shear. We compare our prescription with previous approaches that include only rotation. The solutions depend separately on the rotation period and the eddy turnover time and not just on their ratio (the Rossby number). We consider models in which these two time-scales are allowed to be independent and also a case in which they are mutually dependent on radius when a radial-dependent SN rate model is invoked. For the case of a fixed rotation period (or a fixed radius), we show that the influence of shear is dramatic for low Rossby numbers, reducing the correlation time of the turbulence, which, in turn, strongly reduces the saturation value of the dynamo compared to the case when the shear is ignored. We also show that even in the absence of winds or diffusive fluxes, magnetic buoyancy may be able to sustain sufficient helicity fluxes to avoid quenching.

  14. Modeling of global biomass policies

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  15. Modeling of global biomass policies

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  16. Feasible homopolar dynamo with sliding liquid-metal contacts

    Priede, Jānis; Avalos-Zúñiga, Raúl

    2013-01-01

    We present a feasible homopolar dynamo design consisting of a flat, multi-arm spiral coil, which is placed above a fast-spinning metal ring and connected to the latter by sliding liquid-metal electrical contacts. Using a simple, analytically solvable axisymmetric model, we determine the optimal design of such a setup. For small contact resistance, the lowest magnetic Reynolds number, Rm≈34.6, at which the dynamo can work, is attained at the optimal ratio of the outer and inner radii of the rings R i /R o ≈0.36 and the spiral pitch angle 54.7°. In a setup of two copper rings with the thickness of 3 cm, R i =10 cm and R o =30 cm, self-excitation of the magnetic field is expected at a critical rotation frequency around 10 Hz

  17. Faraday rotation signatures of fluctuation dynamos in young galaxies

    Sur, Sharanya; Bhat, Pallavi; Subramanian, Kandaswamy

    2018-03-01

    Observations of Faraday rotation through high-redshift galaxies have revealed that they host coherent magnetic fields that are of comparable strengths to those observed in nearby galaxies. These fields could be generated by fluctuation dynamos. We use idealized numerical simulations of such dynamos in forced compressible turbulence up to rms Mach number of 2.4 to probe the resulting rotation measure (RM) and the degree of coherence of the magnetic field. We obtain rms values of RM at dynamo saturation of the order of 45-55 per cent of the value expected in a model where fields are assumed to be coherent on the forcing scale of turbulence. We show that the dominant contribution to the RM in subsonic and transonic cases comes from the general sea of volume filling fields, rather than from the rarer structures. However, in the supersonic case, strong field regions as well as moderately overdense regions contribute significantly. Our results can account for the observed RMs in young galaxies.

  18. BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO: THE ROLE OF DOWNWARD PUMPING AND THE EQUATORWARD PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY

    Karak, Bidya Binay; Cameron, Robert, E-mail: bkarak@ucar.edu [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany)

    2016-11-20

    The key elements of the Babcock–Leighton dynamos are the generation of poloidal field through decay and the dispersal of tilted bipolar active regions and the generation of toroidal field through the observed differential rotation. These models are traditionally known as flux transport dynamo models as the equatorward propagations of the butterfly wings in these models are produced due to an equatorward flow at the bottom of the convection zone. Here we investigate the role of downward magnetic pumping near the surface using a kinematic Babcock–Leighton model. We find that the pumping causes the poloidal field to become predominately radial in the near-surface shear layer, which allows the negative radial shear to effectively act on the radial field to produce a toroidal field. We observe a clear equatorward migration of the toroidal field at low latitudes as a consequence of the dynamo wave even when there is no meridional flow in the deep convection zone. Both the dynamo wave and the flux transport type solutions are thus able to reproduce some of the observed features of the solar cycle including the 11-year periodicity. The main difference between the two types of solutions is the strength of the Babcock–Leighton source required to produce the dynamo action. A second consequence of the magnetic pumping is that it suppresses the diffusion of fields through the surface, which helps to allow an 11-year cycle at (moderately) larger values of magnetic diffusivity than have previously been used.

  19. BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO: THE ROLE OF DOWNWARD PUMPING AND THE EQUATORWARD PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY

    Karak, Bidya Binay; Cameron, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The key elements of the Babcock–Leighton dynamos are the generation of poloidal field through decay and the dispersal of tilted bipolar active regions and the generation of toroidal field through the observed differential rotation. These models are traditionally known as flux transport dynamo models as the equatorward propagations of the butterfly wings in these models are produced due to an equatorward flow at the bottom of the convection zone. Here we investigate the role of downward magnetic pumping near the surface using a kinematic Babcock–Leighton model. We find that the pumping causes the poloidal field to become predominately radial in the near-surface shear layer, which allows the negative radial shear to effectively act on the radial field to produce a toroidal field. We observe a clear equatorward migration of the toroidal field at low latitudes as a consequence of the dynamo wave even when there is no meridional flow in the deep convection zone. Both the dynamo wave and the flux transport type solutions are thus able to reproduce some of the observed features of the solar cycle including the 11-year periodicity. The main difference between the two types of solutions is the strength of the Babcock–Leighton source required to produce the dynamo action. A second consequence of the magnetic pumping is that it suppresses the diffusion of fields through the surface, which helps to allow an 11-year cycle at (moderately) larger values of magnetic diffusivity than have previously been used.

  20. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  1. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  2. Exact axially symmetric galactic dynamos

    Henriksen, R. N.; Woodfinden, A.; Irwin, J. A.

    2018-05-01

    We give a selection of exact dynamos in axial symmetry on a galactic scale. These include some steady examples, at least one of which is wholly analytic in terms of simple functions and has been discussed elsewhere. Most solutions are found in terms of special functions, such as associated Lagrange or hypergeometric functions. They may be considered exact in the sense that they are known to any desired accuracy in principle. The new aspect developed here is to present scale-invariant solutions with zero resistivity that are self-similar in time. The time dependence is either a power law or an exponential factor, but since the geometry of the solution is self-similar in time we do not need to fix a time to study it. Several examples are discussed. Our results demonstrate (without the need to invoke any other mechanisms) X-shaped magnetic fields and (axially symmetric) magnetic spiral arms (both of which are well observed and documented) and predict reversing rotation measures in galaxy haloes (now observed in the CHANG-ES sample) as well as the fact that planar magnetic spirals are lifted into the galactic halo.

  3. The effect of collisionality and diamagnetism on the plasma dynamo

    Ji, H.; Yagi, Y.; Hattori, K.; Hirano, Y.; Shimada, T.; Maejima, Y.; Hayase, K.; Almagri, A.F.; Prager, S.C.; Sarff, J.S.

    1995-01-01

    Fluctuation-induced dynamo forces are measured over a wide range of electron collisionality in the edge of TPE-1RM20 Reversed-Field Pinch (RFP). In the collisionless region the Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) dynamo alone can sustain the parallel current, while in the collisional region a new dynamo mechanism resulting from the fluctuations in the electron diamagnetic drift becomes dominant. A comprehensive picture of the RFP dynamo emerges by combining with earlier results from MST and REPUTE RFPs

  4. Magnetic reversals from planetary dynamo waves

    Sheyko, Andrey; Finlay, Chris; Jackson, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    A striking feature of many natural dynamos is their ability to undergo polarity reversals. The best documented example is Earth's magnetic field, which has reversed hundreds of times during its history. The origin of geomagnetic polarity reversals lies in a magnetohydrodynamic process that takes ...... to kinematic dynamo waves. Because our results are relevant in a regime of low viscosity and high magnetic diffusivity, and with geophysically appropriate boundary conditions, this form of dynamo wave may also be involved in geomagnetic reversals.......A striking feature of many natural dynamos is their ability to undergo polarity reversals. The best documented example is Earth's magnetic field, which has reversed hundreds of times during its history. The origin of geomagnetic polarity reversals lies in a magnetohydrodynamic process that takes...... place in Earth's core, but the precise mechanism is debated. The majority of numerical geodynamo simulations that exhibit reversals operate in a regime in which the viscosity of the fluid remains important, and in which the dynamo mechanism primarily involves stretching and twisting of field lines...

  5. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

  6. Dynamos and MHD theory of turbulence suppression

    Yoshizawa, Akira; Yokoi, Nobumitsu; Itoh, Sanae-I; Itoh, Kimitaka

    2003-12-01

    Characteristics of electrically-conducting media are reviewed from the macroscopic viewpoint based on the mean-field magnetohydrodynamics, while being compared with the methodology and knowledge in fluid mechanics. The themes covered in this review range from the generation mechanism of stellar magnetic fields (dynamo) to transport properties in fusion. The primary concern here is to see the characteristics common to these apparently different phenomena, within the framework of the mean-field theory. Owing to the intrinsic limitation of the approach, the present discussions are limited more or less to specific aspects of phenomena. They are supplemented with the reference to theoretical, numerical, and observational approaches intrinsic to each theme. In the description of dynamo phenomena, an emphasis is put on the cross-helicity dynamo. Features common to the stellar magnetic-field generation and the rotational-motion drive in toroidal plasmas are illustrated on this basis. (author)

  7. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    Böhme, Benjamin

    2018-01-01

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  8. Mean-field magnetohydrodynamics and dynamo theory

    Krause, F

    2013-01-01

    Mean-Field Magnetohydrodynamics and Dynamo Theory provides a systematic introduction to mean-field magnetohydrodynamics and the dynamo theory, along with the results achieved. Topics covered include turbulence and large-scale structures; general properties of the turbulent electromotive force; homogeneity, isotropy, and mirror symmetry of turbulent fields; and turbulent electromotive force in the case of non-vanishing mean flow. The turbulent electromotive force in the case of rotational mean motion is also considered. This book is comprised of 17 chapters and opens with an overview of the gen

  9. Spectral gaps, inertial manifolds and kinematic dynamos

    Nunez, Manuel [Departamento de Analisis Matematico, Universidad de Valladolid, 47005 Valladolid (Spain)]. E-mail: mnjmhd@am.uva.es

    2005-10-17

    Inertial manifolds are desirable objects when ones wishes a dynamical process to behave asymptotically as a finite-dimensional ones. Recently [Physica D 194 (2004) 297] these manifolds are constructed for the kinematic dynamo problem with time-periodic velocity. It turns out, however, that the conditions imposed on the fluid velocity to guarantee the existence of inertial manifolds are too demanding, in the sense that they imply that all the solutions tend exponentially to zero. The inertial manifolds are meaningful because they represent different decay rates, but the classical dynamos where the magnetic field is maintained or grows are not covered by this approach, at least until more refined estimates are found.

  10. Anelastic spherical dynamos with radially variable electrical conductivity

    Dietrich, W.; Jones, C. A.

    2018-05-01

    A series of numerical simulations of the dynamo process operating inside gas giant planets has been performed. We use an anelastic, fully nonlinear, three-dimensional, benchmarked MHD code to evolve the flow, entropy and magnetic field. Our models take into account the varying electrical conductivity, high in the ionised metallic hydrogen region, low in the molecular outer region. Our suite of electrical conductivity profiles ranges from Jupiter-like, where the outer hydrodynamic region is quite thin, to Saturn-like, where there is a thick non-conducting shell. The rapid rotation leads to the formation of two distinct dynamical regimes which are separated by a magnetic tangent cylinder - mTC. Outside the mTC there are strong zonal flows, where Reynolds stress balances turbulent viscosity, but inside the mTC Lorentz force reduces the zonal flow. The dynamic interaction between both regions induces meridional circulation. We find a rich diversity of magnetic field morphologies. There are Jupiter-like steady dipolar fields, and a belt of quadrupolar dominated dynamos spanning the range of models between Jupiter-like and Saturn-like conductivity profiles. This diversity may be linked to the appearance of reversed sign helicity in the metallic regions of our dynamos. With Saturn-like conductivity profiles we find models with dipolar magnetic fields, whose axisymmetric components resemble those of Saturn, and which oscillate on a very long time-scale. However, the non-axisymmetric field components of our models are at least ten times larger than those of Saturn, possibly due to the absence of any stably stratified layer.

  11. Present state of the theory of a MHD-dynamo

    Soward, A M; Roberts, P H

    1976-01-01

    A review is given of the state of the theory of a MHD-dynamo, that is, the theory of self-excited magnetic fields in homogeneous moving liquids. A description is given of two basic approaches-the turbulent dynamos of Steinbeck, Krause and Redler and the high-conductivity dynamo of Braginski, and a look is also taken at the relation between these dynamos. Finally a look is taken at the results of recent studies of the total problem of a MHD-dynamo, that is, at the results of recent attempts to solve the electro- and hydrodynamic equations and to obtain self-excited fields. 6 figs., 122 ref. (SJR)

  12. A wet, heterogeneous lunar interior: Lower mantle and core dynamo evolution

    Evans, A. J.; Zuber, M. T.; Weiss, B. P.; Tikoo, S. M.

    2014-05-01

    While recent analyses of lunar samples indicate the Moon had a core dynamo from at least 4.2-3.56 Ga, mantle convection models of the Moon yield inadequate heat flux at the core-mantle boundary to sustain thermal core convection for such a long time. Past investigations of lunar dynamos have focused on a generally homogeneous, relatively dry Moon, while an initial compositionally stratified mantle is the expected consequence of a postaccretionary lunar magma ocean. Furthermore, recent re-examination of Apollo samples and geophysical data suggests that the Moon contains at least some regions with high water content. Using a finite element model, we investigate the possible consequences of a heterogeneously wet, compositionally stratified interior for the evolution of the Moon. We find that a postoverturn model of mantle cumulates could result in a core heat flux sufficiently high to sustain a dynamo through 2.5 Ga and a maximum surface, dipolar magnetic field strength of less than 1 μT for a 350-km core and near ˜2 μT for a 450-km core. We find that if water was transported or retained preferentially in the deep interior, it would have played a significant role in transporting heat out of the deep interior and reducing the lower mantle temperature. Thus, water, if enriched in the lower mantle, could have influenced core dynamo timing by over 1.0 Gyr and enhanced the vigor of a lunar core dynamo. Our results demonstrate the plausibility of a convective lunar core dynamo even beyond the period currently indicated by the Apollo samples.

  13. Large-scale dynamo action due to α fluctuations in a linear shear flow

    Sridhar, S.; Singh, Nishant K.

    2014-12-01

    We present a model of large-scale dynamo action in a shear flow that has stochastic, zero-mean fluctuations of the α parameter. This is based on a minimal extension of the Kraichnan-Moffatt model, to include a background linear shear and Galilean-invariant α-statistics. Using the first-order smoothing approximation we derive a linear integro-differential equation for the large-scale magnetic field, which is non-perturbative in the shearing rate S , and the α-correlation time τα . The white-noise case, τα = 0 , is solved exactly, and it is concluded that the necessary condition for dynamo action is identical to the Kraichnan-Moffatt model without shear; this is because white-noise does not allow for memory effects, whereas shear needs time to act. To explore memory effects we reduce the integro-differential equation to a partial differential equation, valid for slowly varying fields when τα is small but non-zero. Seeking exponential modal solutions, we solve the modal dispersion relation and obtain an explicit expression for the growth rate as a function of the six independent parameters of the problem. A non-zero τα gives rise to new physical scales, and dynamo action is completely different from the white-noise case; e.g. even weak α fluctuations can give rise to a dynamo. We argue that, at any wavenumber, both Moffatt drift and Shear always contribute to increasing the growth rate. Two examples are presented: (a) a Moffatt drift dynamo in the absence of shear and (b) a Shear dynamo in the absence of Moffatt drift.

  14. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  15. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  16. ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V002

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the U.S. National...

  17. A Study of Stochastic Resonance in the Periodically Forced Rikitake Dynamo

    Chien-Chih Chen Chih-Yuan Tseng

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The geodynamo has widely been thought to be an intuitive and selfsustained model of the Earth¡¦s magnetic field. In this paper, we elucidate how a periodic signal could be embedded in the geomagnetic filed via the mechanism of stochastic resonance in a forced Rikitake dynamo. Based on the stochastic resonance observed in the periodically forced Rikitake dynamo, we thus suggest a common triggering for geomagnetic reversal and glacial events. Both kinds of catastrophes may result from the cyclic variation of the Earth¡¦s orbital eccentricity.

  18. A Global Stock and Bond Model

    Connor, Gregory

    1996-01-01

    Factor models are now widely used to support asset selection decisions. Global asset allocation, the allocation between stocks versus bonds and among nations, usually relies instead on correlation analysis of international equity and bond indexes. It would be preferable to have a single integrated framework for both asset selection and asset allocation. This framework would require a factor model applicable at an asset or country level, as well as at a global level,...

  19. Magnetorotational Dynamo Action in the Shearing Box

    Walker, Justin; Boldyrev, Stanislav

    2017-10-01

    Magnetic dynamo action caused by the magnetorotational instability is studied in the shearing-box approximation with no imposed net magnetic flux. Consistent with recent studies, the dynamo action is found to be sensitive to the aspect ratio of the box: it is much easier to obtain in tall boxes (stretched in the direction normal to the disk plane) than in long boxes (stretched in the radial direction). Our direct numerical simulations indicate that the dynamo is possible in both cases, given a large enough magnetic Reynolds number. To explain the relatively larger effort required to obtain the dynamo action in a long box, we propose that the turbulent eddies caused by the instability most efficiently fold and mix the magnetic field lines in the radial direction. As a result, in the long box the scale of the generated strong azimuthal (stream-wise directed) magnetic field is always comparable to the scale of the turbulent eddies. In contrast, in the tall box the azimuthal magnetic flux spreads in the vertical direction over a distance exceeding the scale of the turbulent eddies. As a result, different vertical sections of the tall box are permeated by large-scale nonzero azimuthal magnetic fluxes, facilitating the instability. NSF AGS-1261659, Vilas Associates Award, NSF-Teragrid Project TG-PHY110016.

  20. A global central banker competency model

    David W. Brits

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model. Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence. Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management. Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other. Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered. Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively. Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

  1. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  2. Global-warming forecasting models

    Moeller, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    In spite of an annual man-made quantity of about 20 billion tons, carbon dioxide has remained a trace gas in the atmosphere (350 ppm at present). The reliability of model calculations which forecast temperatures is dicussed in view of the world-wide increase in carbon dioxides. Computer simulations reveal a general, serious threat to the future of mankind. (DG) [de

  3. IMPACT OF A REALISTIC DENSITY STRATIFICATION ON A SIMPLE SOLAR DYNAMO CALCULATION

    Cardoso, Elisa; Lopes, Ilidio, E-mail: ilidio.lopes@ist.utl.pt [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofisica, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2012-09-20

    In our Sun, the magnetic cycle is driven by the dynamo action occurring inside the convection zone, beneath the surface. Rotation couples with plasma turbulent motions to produce organized magnetic fields that erupt at the surface and undergo relatively regular cycles of polarity reversal. Among others, the axisymmetric dynamo models have been proved to be a quite useful tool to understand the dynamical processes responsible for the evolution of the solar magnetic cycle and the formation of the sunspots. Here, we discuss the role played by the radial density stratification on the critical layers of the Sun on the solar dynamo. The current view is that a polytropic description of the density stratification from beneath the tachocline region up to the Sun's surface is sufficient for the current precision of axisymmetric dynamo models. In this work, by using an up-to-date density profile obtained from a standard solar model, which is itself consistent with helioseismic data, we show that the detailed peculiarities of the density in critical regions of the Sun's interior, such as the tachocline, the base of the convection zone, the layers of partial ionization of hydrogen and helium, and the super-adiabatic layer, play a non-negligible role on the evolution of the solar magnetic cycle. Furthermore, we found that the chemical composition of the solar model plays a minor role in the formation and evolution of the solar magnetic cycle.

  4. Inertial effects on thermochemically driven convection and hydromagnetic dynamos in a spherical shell

    Šimkanin, Ján; Kyselica, Juraj; Guba, P.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 212, č. 3 (2018), s. 2194-2205 ISSN 0956-540X Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : composition and structure of the core * dynamo * nonlinear differential equations * numerical modelling Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 2.414, year: 2016

  5. Magnetic and velocity fields in a dynamo operating at extremely small Ekman and magnetic Prandtl numbers

    Šimkanin, Ján; Kyselica, Juraj

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulations of the geodynamo are becoming more realistic because of advances in computer technology. Here, the geodynamo model is investigated numerically at the extremely low Ekman and magnetic Prandtl numbers using the PARODY dynamo code. These parameters are more realistic than those used in previous numerical studies of the geodynamo. Our model is based on the Boussinesq approximation and the temperature gradient between upper and lower boundaries is a source of convection. This study attempts to answer the question how realistic the geodynamo models are. Numerical results show that our dynamo belongs to the strong-field dynamos. The generated magnetic field is dipolar and large-scale while convection is small-scale and sheet-like flows (plumes) are preferred to a columnar convection. Scales of magnetic and velocity fields are separated, which enables hydromagnetic dynamos to maintain the magnetic field at the low magnetic Prandtl numbers. The inner core rotation rate is lower than that in previous geodynamo models. On the other hand, dimensional magnitudes of velocity and magnetic fields and those of the magnetic and viscous dissipation are larger than those expected in the Earth's core due to our parameter range chosen.

  6. IMPACT OF A REALISTIC DENSITY STRATIFICATION ON A SIMPLE SOLAR DYNAMO CALCULATION

    Cardoso, Elisa; Lopes, Ilídio

    2012-01-01

    In our Sun, the magnetic cycle is driven by the dynamo action occurring inside the convection zone, beneath the surface. Rotation couples with plasma turbulent motions to produce organized magnetic fields that erupt at the surface and undergo relatively regular cycles of polarity reversal. Among others, the axisymmetric dynamo models have been proved to be a quite useful tool to understand the dynamical processes responsible for the evolution of the solar magnetic cycle and the formation of the sunspots. Here, we discuss the role played by the radial density stratification on the critical layers of the Sun on the solar dynamo. The current view is that a polytropic description of the density stratification from beneath the tachocline region up to the Sun's surface is sufficient for the current precision of axisymmetric dynamo models. In this work, by using an up-to-date density profile obtained from a standard solar model, which is itself consistent with helioseismic data, we show that the detailed peculiarities of the density in critical regions of the Sun's interior, such as the tachocline, the base of the convection zone, the layers of partial ionization of hydrogen and helium, and the super-adiabatic layer, play a non-negligible role on the evolution of the solar magnetic cycle. Furthermore, we found that the chemical composition of the solar model plays a minor role in the formation and evolution of the solar magnetic cycle.

  7. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  8. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  9. New global ICT-based business models

    The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative ...... The NEWGIBM Cases Show? The Strategy Concept in Light of the Increased Importance of Innovative Business Models Successful Implementation of Global BM Innovation Globalisation Of ICT Based Business Models: Today And In 2020......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative....... The NEWGIBM book serves as a part of the final evaluation and documentation of the NEWGIBM project and is supported by results from the following projects: M-commerce, Global Innovation, Global Ebusiness & M-commerce, The Blue Ocean project, International Center for Innovation and Women in Business, NEFFICS...

  10. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2014-05-01

    As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater

  11. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  12. Dynamo Tests for Stratification Below the Core-Mantle Boundary

    Olson, P.; Landeau, M.

    2017-12-01

    Evidence from seismology, mineral physics, and core dynamics points to a layer with an overall stable stratification in the Earth's outer core, possibly thermal in origin, extending below the core-mantle boundary (CMB) for several hundred kilometers. In contrast, energetic deep mantle convection with elevated heat flux implies locally unstable thermal stratification below the CMB in places, consistent with interpretations of non-dipole geomagnetic field behavior that favor upwelling flows below the CMB. Here, we model the structure of convection and magnetic fields in the core using numerical dynamos with laterally heterogeneous boundary heat flux in order to rationalize this conflicting evidence. Strongly heterogeneous boundary heat flux generates localized convection beneath the CMB that coexists with an overall stable stratification there. Partially stratified dynamos have distinctive time average magnetic field structures. Without stratification or with stratification confined to a thin layer, the octupole component is small and the CMB magnetic field structure includes polar intensity minima. With more extensive stratification, the octupole component is large and the magnetic field structure includes intense patches or high intensity lobes in the polar regions. Comparisons with the time-averaged geomagnetic field are generally favorable for partial stratification in a thin layer but unfavorable for stratification in a thick layer beneath the CMB.

  13. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  14. The Hottest Hot Jupiters May Host Atmospheric Dynamos

    Rogers, T. M. [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom); McElwaine, J. N. [Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

    2017-06-01

    Hot Jupiters have proven themselves to be a rich class of exoplanets that test our theories of planetary evolution and atmospheric dynamics under extreme conditions. Here, we present three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations and analytic results that demonstrate that a dynamo can be maintained in the thin, stably stratified atmosphere of a hot Jupiter, independent of the presumed deep-seated dynamo. This dynamo is maintained by conductivity variations arising from strong asymmetric heating from the planets’ host star. The presence of a dynamo significantly increases the surface magnetic field strength and alters the overall planetary magnetic field geometry, possibly affecting star–planet magnetic interactions.

  15. Global thermal models of the lithosphere

    Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

    2017-12-01

    Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations

  16. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  17. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

  18. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  19. When did the lunar core dynamo cease?

    Tikoo, S. M.; Weiss, B. P.; Shuster, D. L.; Fuller, M.

    2013-12-01

    Remanent magnetization in the lunar crust and in returned Apollo samples has long suggested that the Moon formed a metallic core and an ancient dynamo magnetic field. Recent paleomagnetic investigations of lunar samples demonstrate that the Moon had a core dynamo which produced ~30-110 μT surface fields between at least 4.2 and 3.56 billion years ago (Ga). Tikoo et al. (1) recently found that the field declined to below several μT by 3.19 Ga. However, given that even values of a few μT are at the upper end of the intensities predicted by dynamo theory for this late in lunar history, it remains uncertain when the lunar dynamo actually ceased completely. Determining this requires a young lunar rock with extraordinarily high magnetic recording fidelity. With this goal, we are conducting a new analysis of young regolith breccia 15498. Although the breccia's age is currently uncertain, the presence of Apollo 15-type mare basalt clasts provides an upper limit constraint of ~3.3 Ga, while trapped Ar data suggest a lithification age of ~1.3 Ga. In stark contrast to the multidomain character of virtually all lunar crystalline rocks, the magnetic carriers in 15498 are on average pseudo-single domain to superparamagnetic, indicating that the sample should provide high-fidelity paleointensity records. A previous alternating field (AF) and thermal demagnetization study of 15498 by Gose et al. (2) observed that the sample carries stable remanent magnetization which persists to unblocking temperatures of at least 650°C. Using a modified Thellier technique, they reported a paleointensity of 2 μT. Although this value may have been influenced by spurious remanence acquired during pretreatment with AF demagnetization, our results confirm the presence of an extremely stable (blocked to coercivities >290 mT) magnetization in the glassy matrix. We also found that this magnetization is largely unidirectional across mutually oriented subsamples. The cooling timescale of this rock (~1

  20. Stable Alfven-wave dynamo action in the reversed-field pinch

    Werley, K.A.

    1984-01-01

    Previous theoretical work has suggested that Alfven waves may be related to the anomalous toroidal magnetic flux generation and extended (over classical expectations) discharge times observed in the reversed-field pinch. This thesis examines the dynamo action of stable Alfven waves as a means of generating toroidal flux. Recent advances in linear resistive MHD stability analysis are used to calculate the quasi-linear dynamo mean electromotive force of Alfven waves. This emf is incorporated into a one-dimensional transport and mean-field evolution code. The changing equilibrium is then fed back to the stability code to complete a computational framework that self-consistently evaluates a dynamic plasma dynamo. This technique is readily extendable to other plasmas in which dynamic stable model action is of interest. Such plasmas include Alfven wave current-drive and plasma heating for fusion devices, as well as astrophysical and geophysical dynamo systems. This study also contains extensive studies of resistive Alfven wave properties. This includes behavior versus spectral location, magnetic Reynolds number and wave number

  1. GLOMO - Global Mobility Model: Beschreibung und Ergebnisse

    Kühn, André; Novinsky, Patrick; Schade, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    The development of both, emerging markets as well as the already establish markets (USA, Japan, Europe), is highly relevant for future success of the export-oriented German automotive industry. This paper describes the so called Global Mobility Model (GLOMO) based on the system dynamics approach, which simulates the future development of car sales by segment and drive technology. The modularized model contains population, income and GDP development in order to describe the framework in the mo...

  2. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated

  3. A model for global cycling of tritium

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper the authors present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the southern hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Names TRICYCLE (for TRItium CYCLE) the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemispheric stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitude zones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if it is assumed that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The model's latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a uniformly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the NCRP model's corresponding prediction by a factor of three

  4. A model for global cycling of tritium

    Killough, G.G.; Kocher, D.C.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic compartment models are widely used to describe global cycling of radionuclides for purposes of dose estimation. In this paper, we present a new global tritium model that reproduces environmental time-series data on concentrations in precipitation, ocean surface waters, and surface fresh waters in the northern hemisphere, concentrations of atmospheric tritium in the soutehrn hemisphere, and the latitude dependence of tritium in both hemispheres. Named TRICYCLE for Tritium CYCLE, the model is based on the global hydrologic cycle and includes hemisphereic stratospheric compartments, disaggregation of the troposphere and ocean surface waters into eight latitudezones, consideration of the different concentrations of atmospheric tritium over land and over the ocean, and a diffusive model for transport in the ocean. TRICYCLE reproduces the environmental data if we assume that about 50% of the tritium from atmospheric weapons testing was injected directly into the northern stratosphere as HTO. The models latitudinal disaggregation permits taking into account the distribution of population. For a unfiormaly distributed release of HTO into the worldwide troposphere, TRICYCLE predicts a collective dose commitment to the world population that exceeds the corresponding prediction by the NCRP model by about a factor of 3. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  5. Global nuclear material flow/control model

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.S.; Fasel, P.K.; Riese, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of an international regime for nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool which treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. The prototype model developed visually represents the fundamental data, information, and capabilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle in a framework supportive of national or an international perspective. This includes an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, facility specific geographic identification, and the capability to estimate resource requirements for the management and control of nuclear material. The model establishes the foundation for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material and supports the development of other pertinent algorithmic capabilities necessary to undertake further global nuclear material related studies

  6. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab

    2014-01-01

    Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382

  7. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    Hina Anwar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity.

  8. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  9. Non-kinematic Flux-transport Dynamos Including the Effects of Diffusivity Quenching

    Ichimura, Chiaki; Yokoyama, Takaaki [Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan)

    2017-04-10

    Turbulent magnetic diffusivity is quenched when strong magnetic fields suppress turbulent motion in a phenomenon known as diffusivity quenching. Diffusivity quenching can provide a mechanism for amplifying magnetic field and influencing global velocity fields through Lorentz force feedback. To investigate this effect, we conducted mean field flux-transport dynamo simulations that included the effects of diffusivity quenching in a non-kinematic regime. We found that toroidal magnetic field strength is amplified by up to approximately 1.5 times in the convection zone as a result of diffusivity quenching. This amplification is much weaker than that in kinematic cases as a result of Lorentz force feedback on the system’s differential rotation. While amplified toroidal fields lead to the suppression of equatorward meridional flow locally near the base of the convection zone, large-scale equatorward transport of magnetic flux via meridional flow, which is the essential process of the flux-transport dynamo, is sustainable in our calculations.

  10. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  11. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  12. Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

    Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

    2017-05-01

    The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

  13. Efficiency Measurement Using a Motor-Dynamo Module

    Ng, Pun-hon; Wong, Siu-ling; Mak, Se-yuen

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we describe a simple method which can be used to measure the efficiency of a low power dc motor, a motor-converted dynamo and a coupled motor-dynamo module as a function of the speed of rotation. The result can also be used to verify Faraday's law of electromagnetic induction. (Contains 1 table and 8 figures.)

  14. Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

    Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

    2005-01-01

    Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

  15. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  16. A two-billion-year history for the lunar dynamo.

    Tikoo, Sonia M; Weiss, Benjamin P; Shuster, David L; Suavet, Clément; Wang, Huapei; Grove, Timothy L

    2017-08-01

    Magnetic studies of lunar rocks indicate that the Moon generated a core dynamo with surface field intensities of ~20 to 110 μT between at least 4.25 and 3.56 billion years ago (Ga). The field subsequently declined to lunar dynamo by at least 1 billion years. Such a protracted history requires an extraordinarily long-lived power source like core crystallization or precession. No single dynamo mechanism proposed thus far can explain the strong fields inferred for the period before 3.56 Ga while also allowing the dynamo to persist in such a weakened state beyond ~2.5 Ga. Therefore, our results suggest that the dynamo was powered by at least two distinct mechanisms operating during early and late lunar history.

  17. Persistence and origin of the lunar core dynamo

    Suavet, Clément; Weiss, Benjamin P.; Cassata, William S.; Shuster, David L.; Gattacceca, Jérôme; Chan, Lindsey; Garrick-Bethell, Ian; Head, James W.; Grove, Timothy L.; Fuller, Michael D.

    2013-01-01

    The lifetime of the ancient lunar core dynamo has implications for its power source and the mechanism of field generation. Here, we report analyses of two 3.56-Gy-old mare basalts demonstrating that they were magnetized in a stable and surprisingly intense dynamo magnetic field of at least ∼13 μT. These data extend the known lifetime of the lunar dynamo by ∼160 My and indicate that the field was likely continuously active until well after the final large basin-forming impact. This likely excludes impact-driven changes in rotation rate as the source of the dynamo at this time in lunar history. Rather, our results require a persistent power source like precession of the lunar mantle or a compositional convection dynamo. PMID:23650386

  18. Stable Alfven wave dynamo action in the reversed field pinch

    Werley, K.A.

    1984-01-01

    Recent advances in linear resistive MHD stability analysis are used to calculate the quasi-linear dynamo mean electromotive force of Alfven waves. This emf is incorporated into a one-dimensional transport and mean-field evolution code. The changing equilibrium is then fed back to the stability code to complete a computational framework that self-consistently evaluates a dynamic plasma dynamo. Static quasi-linear Alfven wave calculations have shown that dynamo emfs on the order of eta vector J are possible. This suggested a possible explanation of RFP behavior and a new (externally driven) mechanism for extending operation and controlling field profiles (possibly reducing plasma transport). This thesis demonstrates that the dynamo emf can quickly induce plasma currents whose emf cancels the dynamo effect. This thesis also contains extensive studies of resistive Alfven wave properties. This includes behavior versus spectral location, magnetic Reynolds number and wave number

  19. MHD dynamo action in space plasmas

    Faelthammar, C.G.

    1984-05-01

    Electric currents are now recognized to play a major role in the physical process of the Earths magnetosphere as well as in distant astrophysical plasmas. In driving these currents MHD dynamos as well as generators of a thermoelectric nature are important. The primary source of power for the Earths magnetospheric process is the solar wind, which supplies a voltage of the order of 200 kV across the magnetosphere. The direction of the large-scale solar wind electric field varies of many different time scales. The power input to the magnetosphere is closely correlated with the direction of the large-scale solar wind electric field in such a fashion as to mimick the response of a half-wave rectifier with a down-to-dusk conduction direction. Behind this apparently simple response there are complex plasma physical processes that are still very incompletely understood. They are intimately related to auroras, magnetic storms, radiation belts and changes in magnetospheric plasma populations. Similar dynamo actions should occur at other planets having magnetospheres. Recent observations seem to indicate that part of the power input to the Earths magnetosphere comes through MHD dynamo action of a forced plasma flow inside the flanks of the magnetopause and may play a role in other parts of the magnetosphere, too. An example of a cosmical MHD connected to a solid load is the corotating plasma of Jupiters inner magnetosphere, sweeping past the plants inner satelites. In particular the electric currents thereby driven to and from the satellite Io have attracted considerable interest.(author)

  20. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

  1. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2018-04-01

    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  2. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  3. A satellite-based global landslide model

    A. Farahmand

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are devastating phenomena that cause huge damage around the world. This paper presents a quasi-global landslide model derived using satellite precipitation data, land-use land cover maps, and 250 m topography information. This suggested landslide model is based on the Support Vector Machines (SVM, a machine learning algorithm. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC landslide inventory data is used as observations and reference data. In all, 70% of the data are used for model development and training, whereas 30% are used for validation and verification. The results of 100 random subsamples of available landslide observations revealed that the suggested landslide model can predict historical landslides reliably. The average error of 100 iterations of landslide prediction is estimated to be approximately 7%, while approximately 2% false landslide events are observed.

  4. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  5. On coupling global biome models with climate models

    Claussen, M.

    1994-01-01

    The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

  6. Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

    Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

    2018-01-01

    Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

  7. Global and local level density models

    Koning, A.J.; Hilaire, S.; Goriely, S.

    2008-01-01

    Four different level density models, three phenomenological and one microscopic, are consistently parameterized using the same set of experimental observables. For each of the phenomenological models, the Constant Temperature Model, the Back-shifted Fermi gas Model and the Generalized Superfluid Model, a version without and with explicit collective enhancement is considered. Moreover, a recently published microscopic combinatorial model is compared with the phenomenological approaches and with the same set of experimental data. For each nuclide for which sufficient experimental data exists, a local level density parameterization is constructed for each model. Next, these local models have helped to construct global level density prescriptions, to be used for cases for which no experimental data exists. Altogether, this yields a collection of level density formulae and parameters that can be used with confidence in nuclear model calculations. To demonstrate this, a large-scale validation with experimental discrete level schemes and experimental cross sections and neutron emission spectra for various different reaction channels has been performed

  8. Sleuthing the Dynamo: the Final Frontier

    Ayres, Thomas

    1996-07-01

    Innovative technologies are opening new windows into the Sun;from its hidden interior to the far reaches of its turbulentouter envelope: rare-earth detectors for solar neutrinos; theGONG project for helioseismology; SOHO for high-resolutionXUV spectroscopy, and YOHKOH for coronal X-ray imaging. Atthe same time, a fleet of space observatories--ROSAT, EUVE,ASCA, and HST itself--are providing unprecedented views ofthe vacuum-UV and X-ray emissions of stars in our Galacticneighborhood. These seemingly unrelated developments are infact deeply connected. A central issue of solar-stellarphysics is the nature and origin of magnetic activity: thelink between the interior dynamics of a late-type star and theviolent state of its outermost coronal layers. As solarphysicists are unlocking the secrets of the hydromagneticDynamo deep inside the Sun, we and others have beendocumenting the early evolution of the Dynamo and itsassociated external gas-dynamic activity. In particular, wehave obtained HST/FOS spectra of ten young solar-type starsin three nearby open clusters--the Hyades, Pleiades, andAlpha Persei--ranging in age from 50 Myr to 600 Myr. We havesupplemented the HST spectroscopy with deep ROSAT pointings, and ground-based studies. Here, we will continue the HSTside of our project by obtaining FUV spectra of two AlphaPerseids from our original program (but not yet observed),and high-S/N follow-up measurements of the hyperactive PleiadH II 314.

  9. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  10. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    Bozdağ, Ebru

    2016-09-23

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named \\'Titan\\', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used \\'crustal corrections\\'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the

  11. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    ") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

  12. 3-dimensional simulation of dynamo effect of reversed field pinch

    Koide, Shinji.

    1990-09-01

    A non-linear numerical simulation of the dynamo effect of a reversed field pinch (RFP) with finite beta is presented. It is shown that the m=-1, n=(9,10,11,....,19) modes cause the dynamo effect and sustain the field reversed configuration. The role of the m=0 modes on the dynamo effect is carefully examined. Our simulation shows that the magnetic field fluctuation level scales as S -0.2 or S -0.3 in the range of 10 3 5 , while Nebel, Caramana and Schnack obtained the fluctuation level is independent of S for a pressureless RFP plasma. (author)

  13. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

  14. Modeling global scene factors in attention

    Torralba, Antonio

    2003-07-01

    Models of visual attention have focused predominantly on bottom-up approaches that ignored structured contextual and scene information. I propose a model of contextual cueing for attention guidance based on the global scene configuration. It is shown that the statistics of low-level features across the whole image can be used to prime the presence or absence of objects in the scene and to predict their location, scale, and appearance before exploring the image. In this scheme, visual context information can become available early in the visual processing chain, which allows modulation of the saliency of image regions and provides an efficient shortcut for object detection and recognition. 2003 Optical Society of America

  15. Global embedding of fibre inflation models

    Cicoli, Michele [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Università di Bologna,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Bologna,viale Berti Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy); Muia, Francesco [Rudolf Peierls Centre for Theoretical Physics, University of Oxford,1 Keble Rd., Oxford OX1 3NP (United Kingdom); Shukla, Pramod [Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34151 (Italy)

    2016-11-30

    We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with h{sup 1,1}=3 which are K3 fibrations over a ℙ{sup 1} base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

  16. The Dynamo package for tomography and subtomogram averaging: components for MATLAB, GPU computing and EC2 Amazon Web Services.

    Castaño-Díez, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    Dynamo is a package for the processing of tomographic data. As a tool for subtomogram averaging, it includes different alignment and classification strategies. Furthermore, its data-management module allows experiments to be organized in groups of tomograms, while offering specialized three-dimensional tomographic browsers that facilitate visualization, location of regions of interest, modelling and particle extraction in complex geometries. Here, a technical description of the package is presented, focusing on its diverse strategies for optimizing computing performance. Dynamo is built upon mbtools (middle layer toolbox), a general-purpose MATLAB library for object-oriented scientific programming specifically developed to underpin Dynamo but usable as an independent tool. Its structure intertwines a flexible MATLAB codebase with precompiled C++ functions that carry the burden of numerically intensive operations. The package can be delivered as a precompiled standalone ready for execution without a MATLAB license. Multicore parallelization on a single node is directly inherited from the high-level parallelization engine provided for MATLAB, automatically imparting a balanced workload among the threads in computationally intense tasks such as alignment and classification, but also in logistic-oriented tasks such as tomogram binning and particle extraction. Dynamo supports the use of graphical processing units (GPUs), yielding considerable speedup factors both for native Dynamo procedures (such as the numerically intensive subtomogram alignment) and procedures defined by the user through its MATLAB-based GPU library for three-dimensional operations. Cloud-based virtual computing environments supplied with a pre-installed version of Dynamo can be publicly accessed through the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), enabling users to rent GPU computing time on a pay-as-you-go basis, thus avoiding upfront investments in hardware and longterm software maintenance.

  17. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  18. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  19. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  20. Evaluation of global solar radiation models for Shanghai, China

    Yao, Wanxiang; Li, Zhengrong; Wang, Yuyan; Jiang, Fujian; Hu, Lingzhou

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • 108 existing models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. • Fitting models based on measured data are established according to 42 years data. • All models are compared by recently 10 years meteorological data. • The results show that polynomial models are the most accurate models. - Abstract: In this paper, 89 existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models and 19 existing daily global solar radiation models are compared and analyzed by 42 years meteorological data. The results show that for existing monthly average daily global solar radiation models, linear models and polynomial models have been able to estimate global solar radiation accurately, and complex equation types cannot obviously improve the precision. Considering direct parameters such as latitude, altitude, solar altitude and sunshine duration can help improve the accuracy of the models, but indirect parameters cannot. For existing daily global solar radiation models, multi-parameter models are more accurate than single-parameter models, polynomial models are more accurate than linear models. Then measured data fitting monthly average daily global solar radiation models (MADGSR models) and daily global solar radiation models (DGSR models) are established according to 42 years meteorological data. Finally, existing models and fitting models based on measured data are comparative analysis by recent 10 years meteorological data, and the results show that polynomial models (MADGSR model 2, DGSR model 2 and Maduekwe model 2) are the most accurate models

  1. Large-scale dynamo of accretion disks around supermassive nonrotating black holes

    Poplavsky A.L.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper one presents an analytical model of accretion disk magnetosphere dynamics around supermassive nonrotating black holes in the centers of active galactic nuclei. Based on general relativistic equations of magneto hydrodynamics, the nonstationary solutions for time-dependent dynamo action in the accretion disks, spatial and temporal distribution of magnetic field are found. It is shown that there are two distinct stages of dynamo process: the transient and the steady-state regimes, the induction of magnetic field at t > 6:6665 x 1011GM/c3 s becomes stationary, magnetic field is located near the innermost stable circular orbit, and its value rises up to ~ 105 G. Applications of such systems with nonrotating black holes in real active galactic nuclei are discussed.

  2. Introduction to Plasma Dynamo, Reconnection and Shocks

    Intrator, Thomas P. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-30

    In our plasma universe, most of what we can observe is composed of ionized gas, or plasma. This plasma is a conducting fluid, which advects magnetic fields when it flows. Magnetic structure occurs from the smallest planetary to the largest cosmic scales. We introduce at a basic level some interesting features of non linear magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). For example, in our plasma universe, dynamo creates magnetic fields from gravitationally driven flow energy in an electrically conducting medium, and conversely magnetic reconnection annihilates magnetic field and accelerates particles. Shocks occur when flows move faster than the local velocity (sonic or Alfven speed) for the propagation of information. Both reconnection and shocks can accelerate particles, perhaps to gigantic energies, for example as observed with 10{sup 20} eV cosmic rays.

  3. Computer simulation of a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo II

    Kageyama, Akira; Sato, Tetsuya.

    1994-11-01

    We performed a computer simulation of a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo in a rapidly rotating spherical shell. Extensive parameter runs are carried out changing the electrical resistivity. It is found that the total magnetic energy can grow more than ten times larger than the total kinetic energy of the convection motion when the resistivity is sufficiently small. When the resistivity is relatively large and the magnetic energy is comparable or smaller than the kinetic energy, the convection motion maintains its well-organized structure. However, when the resistivity is small and the magnetic energy becomes larger than the kinetic energy, the well-organized convection motion is highly disturbed. The generated magnetic field is organized as a set of flux tubes which can be divided into two categories. The magnetic field component parallel to the rotation axis tends to be confined inside the anticyclonic columnar convection cells. On the other hand, the component perpendicular to the rotation axis is confined outside the convection cells. (author)

  4. Planetary Dynamos: Investigations of Saturn and Ancient Mars

    Stanley, Sabine [University of Toronto

    2012-04-18

    Magnetic field observations by spacecraft missions have provided vital information on planetary dynamos. The four giant planets as well as Earth, Mercury and Ganymede have observable magnetic fields generated by active dynamos. In contrast, Moon and Mars only have remanent crustal fields from dynamo action in their early histories. A variety of magnetic field morphologies and intensities can be found in the solar system. We have found that some of the differences between planetary magnetic fields can be explained as the result of the presence of boundary thermal variations or stably-stratified layers. In this talk, I will discuss how dynamos are affected by these complications and discuss the implications for Mars’ magnetic dichotomy and Saturn’s extremely axisymmetric magnetic field.

  5. Energy transfers in dynamos with small magnetic Prandtl numbers

    Kumar, Rohit

    2015-06-25

    We perform numerical simulation of dynamo with magnetic Prandtl number Pm = 0.2 on 10243 grid, and compute the energy fluxes and the shell-to-shell energy transfers. These computations indicate that the magnetic energy growth takes place mainly due to the energy transfers from large-scale velocity field to large-scale magnetic field and that the magnetic energy flux is forward. The steady-state magnetic energy is much smaller than the kinetic energy, rather than equipartition; this is because the magnetic Reynolds number is near the dynamo transition regime. We also contrast our results with those for dynamo with Pm = 20 and decaying dynamo. © 2015 Taylor & Francis.

  6. Energy fluxes in helical magnetohydrodynamics and dynamo action

    Kinetic and magnetic helicities do not affect the renormalized parameters, ... Generation of magnetic field in plasma, usually referred to as 'dynamo', is one of the ..... energy fluxes for the inertial-range wave numbers where the same power.

  7. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  8. Use of wind data in global modelling

    Pailleux, J.

    1985-01-01

    The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing operational global analyses every 6 hours and operational global forecasts every day from the 12Z analysis. How the wind data are used in the ECMWF golbal analysis is described. For each current wind observing system, its ability to provide initial conditions for the forecast model is discussed as well as its weaknesses. An assessment of the impact of each individual system on the quality of the analysis and the forecast is given each time it is possible. Sometimes the deficiencies which are pointed out are related not only to the observing system itself but also to the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme; then some improvements are generally possible through ad hoc modifications of the analysis scheme and especially tunings of the structure functions. Examples are given. The future observing network over the North Atlantic is examined. Several countries, coordinated by WMO, are working to set up an 'Operational WWW System Evaluation' (OWSE), in order to evaluate the operational aspects of the deployment of new systems (ASDAR, ASAP). Most of the new systems are expected to be deployed before January 1987, and in order to make the best use of the available resources during the deployment phase, some network studies are carried out at the present time, by using simulated data for ASDAR and ASAP systems. They are summarized.

  9. Magnetic Helicities and Dynamo Action in Magneto-rotational Turbulence

    Bodo, G.; Rossi, P. [INAF/Osservatorio Astrofisico di Torino, Strada Osservatorio 20, I-10025 Pino Torinese (Italy); Cattaneo, F. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The University of Chicago, 5640 S. Ellis Avenue, Chicago IL 60637 (United States); Mignone, A., E-mail: bodo@oato.inaf.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Torino, Via Pietro Giuria 1, 10125 Torino (Italy)

    2017-07-10

    We examine the relationship between magnetic flux generation, taken as an indicator of large-scale dynamo action, and magnetic helicity, computed as an integral over the dynamo volume, in a simple dynamo. We consider dynamo action driven by magneto-rotational turbulence (MRT) within the shearing-box approximation. We consider magnetically open boundary conditions that allow a flux of helicity in or out of the computational domain. We circumvent the problem of the lack of gauge invariance in open domains by choosing a particular gauge—the winding gauge—that provides a natural interpretation in terms of the average winding number of pairwise field lines. We use this gauge precisely to define and measure the helicity and the helicity flux for several realizations of dynamo action. We find in these cases that the system as a whole does not break reflectional symmetry and that the total helicity remains small even in cases when substantial magnetic flux is generated. We find no particular connection between the generation of magnetic flux and the helicity or the helicity flux through the boundaries. We suggest that this result may be due to the essentially nonlinear nature of the dynamo processes in MRT.

  10. 2-D model of global aerosol transport

    Rehkopf, J; Newiger, M; Grassl, H

    1984-01-01

    The distribution of aerosol particles in the troposphere is described. Starting with long term mean seasonal flow and diffusivities as well as temperature, cloud distribution (six cloud classes), relative humidity and OH radical concentration, the steady state concentration of aerosol particles and SO/sub 2/ are calculated in a two-dimensional global (height and latitude) model. The following sources and sinks for particles are handled: direct emission, gas-to-particle conversion from SO/sub 2/, coagulation, rainout, washout, gravitational settling, and dry deposition. The sinks considered for sulphur emissions are dry deposition, washout, rainout, gasphase oxidation, and aqueous phase oxidation. Model tests with the water vapour cycle show a good agreement between measured and calculated zonal mean precipitation distribution. The steady state concentration distribution for natural emissions reached after 10 weeks model time, may be described by a mean exponent ..cap alpha.. = 3.2 near the surface assuming a modified Junge distribution and an increased value, ..cap alpha.. = 3.7, for the combined natural and man-made emission. The maximum ground level concentrations are 2000 and 10,000 particules cm/sup -3/ for natural and natural plus man-made emissions, respectively. The resulting distribution of sulphur dioxide agrees satisfactorily with measurements given by several authors. 37 references, 4 figures.

  11. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  12. BETR global - A geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    MacLeod, Matthew; Waldow, Harald von; Tay, Pascal; Armitage, James M.; Woehrnschimmel, Henry; Riley, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2011-01-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15 o x 15 o grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5). - Two new software implementations of the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model are available. The new model software is illustrated using a case study of the global fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  13. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  14. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  15. Ion heating and MHD dynamo fluctuations in the reversed field pinch

    Scime, E.E.

    1992-05-01

    Ion temperature measurements, time resolved to 10 μs, have been made in the Madison Symmetric Torus (MST) reversed field pinch (RFP) with a five channel charge exchange analyzer. The characteristic anomalously high ion temperature of RFP discharges has been observed in the MST. The evolution of the ion and electron temperature, as well as density and charge exchange power loss, were measured for a series of reproducible discharges. The ion heating expected from collisional processes with the electrons is calculated and shown too small to explain the measured ion temperatures. The charge exchange determined ion temperature is also compared to measurements of the thermally broadened CV 227.1 nm line. The ion temperature, T i ∼ 250 eV for I = 360 kA, increases by more than 100% during discrete dynamo bursts in MST discharges. Magnetic field fluctuations in the range 0.5 endash 5 MHz were also measured during the dynamo bursts. Structure in the fluctuation frequency spectrum at the ion cyclotron frequency appears as the bursts terminate, suggesting that the mechanism of ion heating involves the dissipation of dynamo fluctuations at ion cyclotron frequencies. Theoretical models for ion heating are reviewed and discussed in light of the experimental results. Similar electron heating mechanisms may be responsible for the discrepancy between measured and expected loop voltages in the RFP. The electrons, as well as the ions, may be heated by turbulent mechanisms, and a RFP energy budget including such phenomena is described

  16. Ab Initio Simulations of a Supernova-driven Galactic Dynamo in an Isolated Disk Galaxy

    Butsky, Iryna [Astronomy Department, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Zrake, Jonathan; Kim, Ji-hoon; Yang, Hung-I; Abel, Tom [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Stanford University, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States)

    2017-07-10

    We study the magnetic field evolution of an isolated spiral galaxy, using isolated Milky Way–mass galaxy formation simulations and a novel prescription for magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) supernova feedback. Our main result is that a galactic dynamo can be seeded and driven by supernova explosions, resulting in magnetic fields whose strength and morphology are consistent with observations. In our model, supernovae supply thermal energy and a low-level magnetic field along with their ejecta. The thermal expansion drives turbulence, which serves a dual role by efficiently mixing the magnetic field into the interstellar medium and amplifying it by means of a turbulent dynamo. The computational prescription for MHD supernova feedback has been implemented within the publicly available ENZO code and is fully described in this paper. This improves upon ENZO 's existing modules for hydrodynamic feedback from stars and active galaxies. We find that the field attains microgauss levels over gigayear timescales throughout the disk. The field also develops a large-scale structure, which appears to be correlated with the disk’s spiral arm density structure. We find that seeding of the galactic dynamo by supernova ejecta predicts a persistent correlation between gas metallicity and magnetic field strength. We also generate all-sky maps of the Faraday rotation measure from the simulation-predicted magnetic field, and we present a direct comparison with observations.

  17. Steady-state dynamo and current drive in a nonuniform bounded plasma

    Mett, R.R.; Taylor, J.B.

    1991-03-01

    Current drive due to helicity injection and dynamo effect are examined in an inhomogeneous bounded plasma. Averaged over a magnetic surface, there is in general no dynamo effect independent of resistivity -- contrary to the results found previously for an unbounded plasma. The dynamo field is calculated explicitly for an incompressible visco-resistive fluid in the plane-slab model. In accord with our general conclusion, outside the Alfven resonant layer it is proportional to the resistivity. Within the resonant layer there is a contribution which is enhanced, relative to its value outside the layer, by a factor (ωa 2 /(η + ν)), where ω is the wave frequency, a the plasma radius, η the magnetic diffusivity, and ν the kinematic viscosity. However, this contribution vanishes when integrated across the layer. The average field in the layer is enhanced by factor (ωa 2 /(η + ν)) 2/3 and is proportional to the shear in the magnetic field and the cube root of the gradient of the Alfven speed. These results are interpreted in terms of helicity balance, and reconciled with the infinite medium calculations. 15 refs

  18. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  19. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Cicoli, Michele; Mayrhofer, Christoph; Valandro, Roberto

    2011-10-01

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r< n D-term conditions on a set of n intersecting divisors. The remaining (n-r) flat directions are fixed by perturbative corrections to the Kaehler potential. We illustrate our general claims in an explicit example. We consider a K3-fibred Calabi-Yau with four Kaehler moduli, that is an hypersurface in a toric ambient space and admits a simple F-theory up-lift. We present explicit choices of brane set-ups and fluxes which lead to three different phenomenological scenarios: the first with GUT-scale strings and TeV-scale SUSY by fine-tuning the background fluxes; the second with an exponentially large value of the volume and TeV-scale SUSY without fine-tuning the background fluxes; and the third with a very anisotropic configuration that leads to TeV-scale strings and two micron-sized extra dimensions. The K3 fibration structure of the Calabi-Yau three-fold is also particularly suitable for cosmological purposes. (orig.)

  20. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Cicoli, Michele [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Mayrhofer, Christoph [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Valandro, Roberto [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2011-10-15

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r

  1. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr

  2. Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESIM)

    Bell, Paul

    2005-01-01

    ... AND S) toolkits into the Global Information Enterprise (GIE) Modeling and Simulation (GIESim) framework to create effective user analysis of candidate communications architectures and technologies...

  3. Analysis of the positive ionospheric response to a moderate geomagnetic storm using a global numerical model

    A. A. Namgaladze

    2000-04-01

    Full Text Available Current theories of F-layer storms are discussed using numerical simulations with the Upper Atmosphere Model, a global self-consistent, time dependent numerical model of the thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere-magnetosphere system including electrodynamical coupling effects. A case study of a moderate geomagnetic storm at low solar activity during the northern winter solstice exemplifies the complex storm phenomena. The study focuses on positive ionospheric storm effects in relation to thermospheric disturbances in general and thermospheric composition changes in particular. It investigates the dynamical effects of both neutral meridional winds and electric fields caused by the disturbance dynamo effect. The penetration of short-time electric fields of magnetospheric origin during storm intensification phases is shown for the first time in this model study. Comparisons of the calculated thermospheric composition changes with satellite observations of AE-C and ESRO-4 during storm time show a good agreement. The empirical MSISE90 model, however, is less consistent with the simulations. It does not show the equatorward propagation of the disturbances and predicts that they have a gentler latitudinal gradient. Both theoretical and experimental data reveal that although the ratio of [O]/[N2] at high latitudes decreases significantly during the magnetic storm compared with the quiet time level, at mid to low latitudes it does not increase (at fixed altitudes above the quiet reference level. Meanwhile, the ionospheric storm is positive there. We conclude that the positive phase of the ionospheric storm is mainly due to uplifting of ionospheric F2-region plasma at mid latitudes and its equatorward movement at low latitudes along geomagnetic field lines caused by large-scale neutral wind circulation and the passage of travelling atmospheric disturbances (TADs. The calculated zonal electric field disturbances also help to create the positive ionospheric

  4. Analysis of the positive ionospheric response to a moderate geomagnetic storm using a global numerical model

    A. A. Namgaladze

    Full Text Available Current theories of F-layer storms are discussed using numerical simulations with the Upper Atmosphere Model, a global self-consistent, time dependent numerical model of the thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere-magnetosphere system including electrodynamical coupling effects. A case study of a moderate geomagnetic storm at low solar activity during the northern winter solstice exemplifies the complex storm phenomena. The study focuses on positive ionospheric storm effects in relation to thermospheric disturbances in general and thermospheric composition changes in particular. It investigates the dynamical effects of both neutral meridional winds and electric fields caused by the disturbance dynamo effect. The penetration of short-time electric fields of magnetospheric origin during storm intensification phases is shown for the first time in this model study. Comparisons of the calculated thermospheric composition changes with satellite observations of AE-C and ESRO-4 during storm time show a good agreement. The empirical MSISE90 model, however, is less consistent with the simulations. It does not show the equatorward propagation of the disturbances and predicts that they have a gentler latitudinal gradient. Both theoretical and experimental data reveal that although the ratio of [O]/[N2] at high latitudes decreases significantly during the magnetic storm compared with the quiet time level, at mid to low latitudes it does not increase (at fixed altitudes above the quiet reference level. Meanwhile, the ionospheric storm is positive there. We conclude that the positive phase of the ionospheric storm is mainly due to uplifting of ionospheric F2-region plasma at mid latitudes and its equatorward movement at low latitudes along geomagnetic field lines caused by large-scale neutral wind circulation and the passage of travelling atmospheric disturbances (TADs. The calculated zonal electric field disturbances also help

  5. SEP modeling based on global heliospheric models at the CCMC

    Mays, M. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D.; Bain, H. M.; Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Li, Y.; Lee, K.; Zeitlin, C.; Jian, L. K.; Lee, C. O.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Galvin, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Heliospheric models provide contextual information of conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, and are used as input to SEP models, providing an essential tool for understanding SEP properties. The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL+Cone model provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a spherical shaped hydrodynamic CME can be inserted. ENLIL simulates solar wind parameters and additionally one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. An accurate representation of the background solar wind is necessary for simulating transients. ENLIL simulations also drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al. 2010). The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is in the process of making these SEP models available to the community and offering a system to run SEP models driven by a variety of heliospheric models available at CCMC. SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence of observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. The coupled SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. The coupled ENLIL and SEP models allow us to derive the longitudinal distribution of SEP profiles of different types of events throughout the heliosphere. In this presentation we demonstrate several case studies of SEP event modeling at different observers based on WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations.

  6. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  7. NASA 3D Models: Global Hawk

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The ability of the Global Hawk air vehicle to autonomously fly long distances and remain aloft for extended periods of time means that measuring, monitoring, and...

  8. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  9. Latitudinal profile of the ionospheric disturbance dynamo magnetic signature: comparison with the DP2 magnetic disturbance

    K. Z. Zaka

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available During magnetic storms, the auroral electrojets intensification affects the thermospheric circulation on a global scale. This process which leads to electric field and current disturbance at middle and low latitudes, on the quiet day after the end of a storm, has been attributed to the ionospheric disturbance dynamo (Ddyn. The magnetic field disturbance observed as a result of this process is the reduction of the H component amplitude in the equatorial region which constitutes the main characteristic of the ionospheric disturbance dynamo process, associated with a westward electric current flow. The latitudinal profile of the Ddyn disturbance dynamo magnetic signature exhibits an eastward current at mid latitudes and a westward one at low latitudes with a substantial amplification at the magnetic equator. Such current flow reveals an "anti-Sq" system established between the mid latitudes and the equatorial region and opposes the normal Sq current vortex. However, the localization of the eastward current and consequently the position and the extent of the "anti-Sq" current vortex changes from one storm to another. Indeed, for a strong magnetic storm, the eastward current is well established at mid latitudes about 45° N and for a weak magnetic storm, the eastward current is established toward the high latitudes (about 60° N, near the Joule heating region, resulting in a large "anti-Sq" current cell. The latitudinal profile of the Ddyn disturbance as well as the magnetic disturbance DP2 generated by the mechanism of prompt penetration of the magnetospheric convection electric field in general, show a weak disturbance at the low latitudes with a substantial amplification at the magnetic equator. Due to the intensity of the storm, the magnitude of the DP2 appears higher than the Ddyn over the American and Asian sector contrary to the African sector.

  10. Architecture design in global and model-centric software development

    Heijstek, Werner

    2012-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation describes a series of empirical investigations into representation, dissemination and coordination of software architecture design in the context of global software development. A particular focus is placed on model-centric and model-driven software development.

  11. A PROPOSED PARADIGM FOR SOLAR CYCLE DYNAMICS MEDIATED VIA TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX IN BABCOCK–LEIGHTON-TYPE SOLAR DYNAMOS

    Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu [Department of Physical Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Kolkata (India)

    2016-11-20

    At present, the Babcock–Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear to be the most promising models for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent upon a single-cell meridional circulation with a deep equatorward component at the base of the Sun’s convection zone. However, recent observations suggest that the meridional flow may in fact be very shallow (confined to the top 10% of the Sun) and more complex than previously thought. Taken together, these observations raise serious concerns on the validity of the flux transport paradigm. By accounting for the turbulent pumping of magnetic flux, as evidenced in magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar convection, we demonstrate that flux transport dynamo models can generate solar-like magnetic cycles even if the meridional flow is shallow. Solar-like periodic reversals are recovered even when meridional circulation is altogether absent. However, in this case, the solar surface magnetic field dynamics does not extend all the way to the polar regions. Very importantly, our results demonstrate that the Parker–Yoshimura sign rule for dynamo wave propagation can be circumvented in Babcock–Leighton dynamo models by the latitudinal component of turbulent pumping, which can generate equatorward propagating sunspot belts in the absence of a deep, equatorward meridional flow. We also show that variations in turbulent pumping coefficients can modulate the solar cycle amplitude and periodicity. Our results suggest the viability of an alternate magnetic flux transport paradigm—mediated via turbulent pumping—for sustaining solar-stellar dynamo action.

  12. A PROPOSED PARADIGM FOR SOLAR CYCLE DYNAMICS MEDIATED VIA TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX IN BABCOCK–LEIGHTON-TYPE SOLAR DYNAMOS

    Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu

    2016-01-01

    At present, the Babcock–Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear to be the most promising models for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent upon a single-cell meridional circulation with a deep equatorward component at the base of the Sun’s convection zone. However, recent observations suggest that the meridional flow may in fact be very shallow (confined to the top 10% of the Sun) and more complex than previously thought. Taken together, these observations raise serious concerns on the validity of the flux transport paradigm. By accounting for the turbulent pumping of magnetic flux, as evidenced in magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar convection, we demonstrate that flux transport dynamo models can generate solar-like magnetic cycles even if the meridional flow is shallow. Solar-like periodic reversals are recovered even when meridional circulation is altogether absent. However, in this case, the solar surface magnetic field dynamics does not extend all the way to the polar regions. Very importantly, our results demonstrate that the Parker–Yoshimura sign rule for dynamo wave propagation can be circumvented in Babcock–Leighton dynamo models by the latitudinal component of turbulent pumping, which can generate equatorward propagating sunspot belts in the absence of a deep, equatorward meridional flow. We also show that variations in turbulent pumping coefficients can modulate the solar cycle amplitude and periodicity. Our results suggest the viability of an alternate magnetic flux transport paradigm—mediated via turbulent pumping—for sustaining solar-stellar dynamo action.

  13. Tracing control of chaos for the coupled dynamos dynamical system

    Wang Xuedi; Tian Lixin

    2004-01-01

    This paper introduces a new method for the coupled dynamos dynamical system, which can be applied to the decision of the chaotic behavior of the system. And research the tracing control of the chaos for the coupled dynamos dynamical system by gradually changing the driving parameter for the chaos. With the different design of controllers, the numerical simulation results show the relation between the chaotic behavior and the changes of the parameter value. Furthermore, the result shows the difference of the controllers. In the mean time, it reveals the process of the orbit's gradual changing with the parameter value

  14. Magnetic field saturation in the Riga dynamo experiment.

    Gailitis, A; Lielausis, O; Platacis, E; Dement'ev, S; Cifersons, A; Gerbeth, G; Gundrum, T; Stefani, F; Christen, M; Will, G

    2001-04-02

    After the dynamo experiment in November 1999 [A. Gailitis et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 84, 4365 (2000)] had shown magnetic field self-excitation in a spiraling liquid metal flow, in a second series of experiments emphasis was placed on the magnetic field saturation regime as the next principal step in the dynamo process. The dependence of the strength of the magnetic field on the rotation rate is studied. Various features of the saturated magnetic field are outlined and possible saturation mechanisms are discussed.

  15. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  16. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of

  17. The importance of wind-flux feedbacks during the November CINDY-DYNAMO MJO event

    Riley Dellaripa, Emily; Maloney, Eric; van den Heever, Susan

    2015-04-01

    High-resolution, large-domain cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations probing the importance of wind-flux feedbacks to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) convection are performed for the November 2011 CINDY-DYNAMO MJO event. The work is motivated by observational analysis from RAMA buoys in the Indian Ocean and TRMM precipitation retrievals that show a positive correlation between MJO precipitation and wind-induced surface fluxes, especially latent heat fluxes, during and beyond the CINDY-DYNAMO time period. Simulations are done using Colorado State University's Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The domain setup is oceanic and spans 1000 km x 1000 km with 1.5 km horizontal resolution and 65 stretched vertical levels centered on the location of Gan Island - one of the major CINDY-DYNAMO observation points. The model is initialized with ECMWF reanalysis and Aqua MODIS sea surface temperatures. Nudging from ECMWF reanalysis is applied at the domain periphery to encourage realistic evolution of MJO convection. The control experiment is run for the entire month of November so both suppressed and active, as well as, transitional phases of the MJO are modeled. In the control experiment, wind-induced surface fluxes are activated through the surface bulk aerodynamic formula and allowed to evolve organically. Sensitivity experiments are done by restarting the control run one week into the simulation and controlling the wind-induced flux feedbacks. In one sensitivity experiment, wind-induced surface flux feedbacks are completely denied, while in another experiment the winds are kept constant at the control simulations mean surface wind speed. The evolution of convection, especially on the mesoscale, is compared between the control and sensitivity simulations.

  18. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  19. Integración de sensores medioambientales con BIM: casos de estudio usando Arduino, Dynamo, y Revit API

    Kensek, K. M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the feasibility of connecting environmental sensors such as light, humidity, or CO2 receptors to a building information model (BIM). A base case was created in Rhino; using Grasshopper and Firefly, a simple digital model responded to lighting-levels detected by a photoresistor on an Arduino board. The case study was duplicated using Revit Architecture, a popular BIM software, and Dynamo, a visual programming environment, in an innovative application. Another case study...

  20. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  1. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1986-01-01

    Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  2. A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

    Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

    1984-01-01

    Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

  3. Integration of Environmental Sensors with BIM: case studies using Arduino, Dynamo, and the Revit API

    Kensek, K. M.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the feasibility of connecting environmental sensors such as light, humidity, or CO2 receptors to a building information model (BIM. A base case was created in Rhino; using Grasshopper and Firefly, a simple digital model responded to lighting-levels detected by a photoresistor on an Arduino board. The case study was duplicated using Revit Architecture, a popular BIM software, and Dynamo, a visual programming environment, in an innovative application. Another case study followed a similar procedure by implementing the Revit API directly instead of using Dynamo. Then the process was reversed to demonstrate that not only could data could be sent from sensors to change the 3D model, but changes to parameters of a 3D model could effect a physical model through the use of actuators. It is intended that these virtual/physical prototypes could be used as the basis for testing intelligent façade systems before constructing full size mock-ups.Este estudio investiga la posibilidad de conectar sensores ambientales como de luz, humedad, o dióxido de carbono con un modelo de información de un edificio (siglas BIM en inglés. Un caso base fue creado en Rhino; usando Grasshopper and Firefly, donde un simple modelo digital respondió a niveles de luz detectados por un foto resistor en una tarjeta Arduino. El caso de estudio fue duplicado usando Revit Architecture, una herramienta popular en BIM, y Dynamo, un ambiente de programación gráfica, en una creativa aplicación. Un segundo caso de estudio siguió un procedimiento similar implementando Revit API directamente en vez de usar Dynamo. Entonces el proceso fue revertido para demostrar que no solamente la información podría ser enviada desde sensores para cambiar el modelo tridimensional, pero cambios en los parámetros de un modelo tridimensional podrían afectar un modelo físico mediante el uso de actuadores. Se espera que esos modelos virtuales puedan ser usados como base para

  4. Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

    Hashimoto, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Ito, A.; Migliavacca, M.; Nishina, K.; Reichstein, M.

    2015-07-01

    The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration data set, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5°and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95 % confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. The estimates are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. Our analysis indicates that the climate controls on soil respiration may translate into an increasing trend in global soil respiration and our analysis emphasizes the relevance of the soil carbon flux from soil to

  5. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  6. Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

    Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

    2012-01-01

    The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

  7. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  8. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Existence of global attractor for the Trojan Y Chromosome model

    Xiaopeng Zhao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the long time behavior of solution for the equation derived by the Trojan Y Chromosome (TYC model with spatial spread. Based on the regularity estimates for the semigroups and the classical existence theorem of global attractors, we prove that this equations possesses a global attractor in $H^k(\\Omega^4$ $(k\\geq 0$ space.

  10. Models for prediction of global solar radiation on horizontal surface ...

    The estimation of global solar radiation continues to play a fundamental role in solar engineering systems and applications. This paper compares various models for estimating the average monthly global solar radiation on horizontal surface for Akure, Nigeria, using solar radiation and sunshine duration data covering years ...

  11. Laminar and Turbulent Dynamos in Chiral Magnetohydrodynamics. II. Simulations

    Schober, Jennifer; Rogachevskii, Igor; Brandenburg, Axel; Boyarsky, Alexey; Fröhlich, Jürg; Ruchayskiy, Oleg; Kleeorin, Nathan

    2018-05-01

    Using direct numerical simulations (DNS), we study laminar and turbulent dynamos in chiral magnetohydrodynamics with an extended set of equations that accounts for an additional contribution to the electric current due to the chiral magnetic effect (CME). This quantum phenomenon originates from an asymmetry between left- and right-handed relativistic fermions in the presence of a magnetic field and gives rise to a chiral dynamo. We show that the magnetic field evolution proceeds in three stages: (1) a small-scale chiral dynamo instability, (2) production of chiral magnetically driven turbulence and excitation of a large-scale dynamo instability due to a new chiral effect (α μ effect), and (3) saturation of magnetic helicity and magnetic field growth controlled by a conservation law for the total chirality. The α μ effect becomes dominant at large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers and is not related to kinetic helicity. The growth rate of the large-scale magnetic field and its characteristic scale measured in the numerical simulations agree well with theoretical predictions based on mean-field theory. The previously discussed two-stage chiral magnetic scenario did not include stage (2), during which the characteristic scale of magnetic field variations can increase by many orders of magnitude. Based on the findings from numerical simulations, the relevance of the CME and the chiral effects revealed in the relativistic plasma of the early universe and of proto-neutron stars are discussed.

  12. Simulation study of dynamo structure in reversed field pinch

    Nagata, A.; Sato, K.I.; Ashida, H.; Amano, T.

    1992-10-01

    The dynamo structure in the reversed field pinch (RFP) is studied through the nonlinear dynamics of single-helicity mode. Simulation is concentrated upon the physical structure of nonlinear interactions of the plasma flow and magnetic fluctuation. The result indicates that when the initial equilibrium profile is deformed by resistive diffusion, the radial flow is driven near the core of the plasma. As this flow forms a vortex structure and magnetic fluctuation grows radially, the dynamo electric field is spirally induced just inside the reversal surface and then the toroidal flux is increased. This dynamo electric field correlates to nonlinear evolution of the kinetic energy of m=1 mode, and the increase of the toroidal flux is originated in the growth process of the magnetic energy of this mode. Consequently, the RFP configuration can be sustained by the single-helicity evolution of m=1 mode alone, and the electric field induced by the interactions of the toroidal velocity and the radial magnetic field is the most dominant source on the dynamo action. (author)

  13. Solar Internal Rotation and Dynamo Waves: A Two Dimensional ...

    tribpo

    Solar Internal Rotation and Dynamo Waves: A Two Dimensional. Asymptotic Solution in the Convection Zone ... We calculate here a spatial 2 D structure of the mean magnetic field, adopting real profiles of the solar internal ... of the asymptotic solution in low (middle) and high (right panel) latitudes. field is shifted towards the ...

  14. Energy transfers in dynamos with small magnetic Prandtl numbers

    Kumar, Rohit; Verma, Mahendra K.; Samtaney, Ravi

    2015-01-01

    We perform numerical simulation of dynamo with magnetic Prandtl number Pm = 0.2 on 10243 grid, and compute the energy fluxes and the shell-to-shell energy transfers. These computations indicate that the magnetic energy growth takes place mainly due

  15. Identification of vortexes obstructing the dynamo mechanism in laboratory experiments

    Limone, A.; Hatch, D. R.; Forest, C. B.; Jenko, F.

    2013-06-01

    The magnetohydrodynamic dynamo effect explains the generation of self-sustained magnetic fields in electrically conducting flows, especially in geo- and astrophysical environments. Yet the details of this mechanism are still unknown, e.g., how and to which extent the geometry, the fluid topology, the forcing mechanism, and the turbulence can have a negative effect on this process. We report on numerical simulations carried out in spherical geometry, analyzing the predicted velocity flow with the so-called singular value decomposition, a powerful technique that allows us to precisely identify vortexes in the flow which would be difficult to characterize with conventional spectral methods. We then quantify the contribution of these vortexes to the growth rate of the magnetic energy in the system. We identify an axisymmetric vortex, whose rotational direction changes periodically in time, and whose dynamics are decoupled from those of the large scale background flow, that is detrimental for the dynamo effect. A comparison with experiments is carried out, showing that similar dynamics were observed in cylindrical geometry. These previously unexpected eddies, which impede the dynamo effect, offer an explanation for the experimental difficulties in attaining a dynamo in spherical geometry.

  16. OILMAP: A global approach to spill modeling

    Spaulding, M.L.; Howlett, E.; Anderson, E.; Jayko, K.

    1992-01-01

    OILMAP is an oil spill model system suitable for use in both rapid response mode and long-range contingency planning. It was developed for a personal computer and employs full-color graphics to enter data, set up spill scenarios, and view model predictions. The major components of OILMAP include environmental data entry and viewing capabilities, the oil spill models, and model prediction display capabilities. Graphic routines are provided for entering wind data, currents, and any type of geographically referenced data. Several modes of the spill model are available. The surface trajectory mode is intended for quick spill response. The weathering model includes the spreading, evaporation, entrainment, emulsification, and shoreline interaction of oil. The stochastic and receptor models simulate a large number of trajectories from a single site for generating probability statistics. Each model and the algorithms they use are described. Several additional capabilities are planned for OILMAP, including simulation of tactical spill response and subsurface oil transport. 8 refs

  17. Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...

    The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model

  18. Meridional Flow Observations: Implications for the current Flux Transport Models

    Gonzalez Hernandez, Irene; Komm, Rudolf; Kholikov, Shukur; Howe, Rachel; Hill, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Meridional circulation has become a key element in the solar dynamo flux transport models. Available helioseismic observations from several instruments, Taiwan Oscillation Network (TON), Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), have made possible a continuous monitoring of the solar meridional flow in the subphotospheric layers for the last solar cycle, including the recent extended minimum. Here we review some of the meridional circulation observations using local helioseismology techniques and relate them to magnetic flux transport models.

  19. Small-scale dynamo at low magnetic Prandtl numbers

    Schober, Jennifer; Schleicher, Dominik; Bovino, Stefano; Klessen, Ralf S.

    2012-12-01

    The present-day Universe is highly magnetized, even though the first magnetic seed fields were most probably extremely weak. To explain the growth of the magnetic field strength over many orders of magnitude, fast amplification processes need to operate. The most efficient mechanism known today is the small-scale dynamo, which converts turbulent kinetic energy into magnetic energy leading to an exponential growth of the magnetic field. The efficiency of the dynamo depends on the type of turbulence indicated by the slope of the turbulence spectrum v(ℓ)∝ℓϑ, where v(ℓ) is the eddy velocity at a scale ℓ. We explore turbulent spectra ranging from incompressible Kolmogorov turbulence with ϑ=1/3 to highly compressible Burgers turbulence with ϑ=1/2. In this work, we analyze the properties of the small-scale dynamo for low magnetic Prandtl numbers Pm, which denotes the ratio of the magnetic Reynolds number, Rm, to the hydrodynamical one, Re. We solve the Kazantsev equation, which describes the evolution of the small-scale magnetic field, using the WKB approximation. In the limit of low magnetic Prandtl numbers, the growth rate is proportional to Rm(1-ϑ)/(1+ϑ). We furthermore discuss the critical magnetic Reynolds number Rmcrit, which is required for small-scale dynamo action. The value of Rmcrit is roughly 100 for Kolmogorov turbulence and 2700 for Burgers. Furthermore, we discuss that Rmcrit provides a stronger constraint in the limit of low Pm than it does for large Pm. We conclude that the small-scale dynamo can operate in the regime of low magnetic Prandtl numbers if the magnetic Reynolds number is large enough. Thus, the magnetic field amplification on small scales can take place in a broad range of physical environments and amplify week magnetic seed fields on short time scales.

  20. Small-scale dynamo at low magnetic Prandtl numbers.

    Schober, Jennifer; Schleicher, Dominik; Bovino, Stefano; Klessen, Ralf S

    2012-12-01

    The present-day Universe is highly magnetized, even though the first magnetic seed fields were most probably extremely weak. To explain the growth of the magnetic field strength over many orders of magnitude, fast amplification processes need to operate. The most efficient mechanism known today is the small-scale dynamo, which converts turbulent kinetic energy into magnetic energy leading to an exponential growth of the magnetic field. The efficiency of the dynamo depends on the type of turbulence indicated by the slope of the turbulence spectrum v(ℓ)∝ℓ^{ϑ}, where v(ℓ) is the eddy velocity at a scale ℓ. We explore turbulent spectra ranging from incompressible Kolmogorov turbulence with ϑ=1/3 to highly compressible Burgers turbulence with ϑ=1/2. In this work, we analyze the properties of the small-scale dynamo for low magnetic Prandtl numbers Pm, which denotes the ratio of the magnetic Reynolds number, Rm, to the hydrodynamical one, Re. We solve the Kazantsev equation, which describes the evolution of the small-scale magnetic field, using the WKB approximation. In the limit of low magnetic Prandtl numbers, the growth rate is proportional to Rm^{(1-ϑ)/(1+ϑ)}. We furthermore discuss the critical magnetic Reynolds number Rm_{crit}, which is required for small-scale dynamo action. The value of Rm_{crit} is roughly 100 for Kolmogorov turbulence and 2700 for Burgers. Furthermore, we discuss that Rm_{crit} provides a stronger constraint in the limit of low Pm than it does for large Pm. We conclude that the small-scale dynamo can operate in the regime of low magnetic Prandtl numbers if the magnetic Reynolds number is large enough. Thus, the magnetic field amplification on small scales can take place in a broad range of physical environments and amplify week magnetic seed fields on short time scales.

  1. Modeling the Acceleration of Global Surface Temperture

    Jones, B.

    2017-12-01

    A mathematical projection focusing on the changing rate of acceleration of Global Surface Temperatures. Using historical trajectory and informed expert near-term prediction, it is possible to extend this further forward drawing a reference arc of acceleration. Presented here is an example of this technique based on data found in the Summary of Findings of A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011 and that same team's stated prediction to 2050. With this, we can project a curve showing future acceleration: Decade (midpoint) Change in Global Land Temp Degrees C Known Slope Projected Trend 1755 0.000 1955 0.600 0.0030 2005 1.500 0.0051 2045 3.000 0.0375 2095 5.485 0.0497 2145 8.895 0.0682 2195 13.488 0.0919 Observations: Slopes are getting steeper and doing so faster in an "acceleration of the acceleration" or an "arc of acceleration". This is consistent with the non-linear accelerating feedback loops of global warming. Such projected temperatures threaten human civilization and human life. This `thumbnail' projection is consistent with the other long term predictions based on anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This projection is low when compared to those whose forecasts include greenhouse gases released from thawing permafrost and clathrate hydrates. A reference line: This curve should be considered a point of reference. In the near term and absent significant drawdown of greenhouse gases, my "bet" for this AGU session is that future temperatures will generally be above this reference curve. For example, the decade ending 2020 - more than 1.9C and the decade ending 2030 - more than 2.3C - again measured from the 1750 start point. *Caveat: The long term curve and prediction assumes that mankind does not move quickly away from high cost fossil fuels and does not invent, mobilize and take actions drawing down greenhouse gases. Those seeking a comprehensive action plan are directed to drawdown.org

  2. Non-linear quenching of current fluctuations in a self-exciting homopolar dynamo, proved by feedback system theory

    de Paor, A. M.

    Hide (Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1998) has produced a new mathematical model of a self-exciting homopolar dynamo driving a series- wound motor, as a continuing contribution to the theory of the geomagnetic field. By a process of exact perturbation analysis, followed by combination and partial solution of differential equations, the complete nonlinear quenching of current fluctuations reported by Hide in the case that a parameter ɛ has the value 1 is proved via the Popov theorem from feedback system stability theory.

  3. Non-linear quenching of current fluctuations in a self-exciting homopolar dynamo, proved by feedback system theory

    A. M. de Paor

    1998-01-01

    International audience; Hide (Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1998) has produced a new mathematical model of a self-exciting homopolar dynamo driving a series- wound motor, as a continuing contribution to the theory of the geomagnetic field. By a process of exact perturbation analysis, followed by combination and partial solution of differential equations, the complete nonlinear quenching of current fluctuations reported by Hide in the case that a parameter ? has the value 1 is proved via ...

  4. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)

    2017-11-20

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  5. Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation

    Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.

  6. Paleomagnetic evidence for dynamo activity driven by inward crystallisation of a metallic asteroid

    Bryson, James F. J.; Weiss, Benjamin P.; Harrison, Richard J.; Herrero-Albillos, Julia; Kronast, Florian

    2017-08-01

    The direction in which a planetary core solidifies has fundamental implications for the feasibility and nature of dynamo generation. Although Earth's core is outwardly solidifying, the cores of certain smaller planetary bodies have been proposed to inwardly solidify due to their lower central pressures. However, there have been no unambiguous observations of inwardly solidified cores or the relationship between this solidification regime and planetary magnetic activity. To address this gap, we present the results of complimentary paleomagnetic techniques applied to the matrix metal and silicate inclusions within the IVA iron meteorites. This family of meteorites has been suggested to originate from a planetary core that had its overlaying silicate mantle removed by collisions during the early solar system. This process is thought to have produced a molten ball of metal that cooled rapidly and has been proposed to have inwardly solidified. Recent thermal evolution models of such a body predict that it should have generated an intense, multipolar and time-varying dynamo field. This field could have been recorded as a remanent magnetisation in the outer, cool layers of a solid crust on the IVA parent core. We find that the different components in the IVA iron meteorites display a range of paleomagnetic fidelities, depending crucially on the cooling rate of the meteorite. In particular, silicate inclusions in the quickly cooled São João Nepomuceno meteorite are poor paleomagnetic recorders. On the other hand, the matrix metal and some silicate subsamples from the relatively slowly cooled Steinbach meteorite are far better paleomagnetic recorders and provide evidence of an intense (≳100 μT) and directionally varying (exhibiting significant changes on a timescale ≲200 kyr) magnetic field. This is the first demonstration that some iron meteorites record ancient planetary magnetic fields. Furthermore, the observed field intensity, temporal variability and dynamo

  7. Is a deep one-cell meridional circulation essential for the flux transport solar dynamo?

    Hazra, Gopal; Karak, Bidya Binay; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

    2014-01-01

    The solar activity cycle is successfully modeled by the flux transport dynamo, in which the meridional circulation of the Sun plays an important role. Most of the kinematic dynamo simulations assume a one-cell structure of the meridional circulation within the convection zone, with the equatorward return flow at its bottom. In view of the recent claims that the return flow occurs at a much shallower depth, we explore whether a meridional circulation with such a shallow return flow can still retain the attractive features of the flux transport dynamo (such as a proper butterfly diagram, the proper phase relation between the toroidal and poloidal fields). We consider additional cells of the meridional circulation below the shallow return flow—both the case of multiple cells radially stacked above one another and the case of more complicated cell patterns. As long as there is an equatorward flow in low latitudes at the bottom of the convection zone, we find that the solar behavior is approximately reproduced. However, if there is either no flow or a poleward flow at the bottom of the convection zone, then we cannot reproduce solar behavior. On making the turbulent diffusivity low, we still find periodic behavior, although the period of the cycle becomes unrealistically large. In addition, with a low diffusivity, we do not get the observed correlation between the polar field at the sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, which is reproduced when diffusivity is high. On introducing radially downward pumping, we get a more reasonable period and more solar-like behavior even with low diffusivity.

  8. Is a deep one-cell meridional circulation essential for the flux transport solar dynamo?

    Hazra, Gopal; Karak, Bidya Binay; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai, E-mail: ghazra@physics.iisc.ernet.in [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012 (India)

    2014-02-20

    The solar activity cycle is successfully modeled by the flux transport dynamo, in which the meridional circulation of the Sun plays an important role. Most of the kinematic dynamo simulations assume a one-cell structure of the meridional circulation within the convection zone, with the equatorward return flow at its bottom. In view of the recent claims that the return flow occurs at a much shallower depth, we explore whether a meridional circulation with such a shallow return flow can still retain the attractive features of the flux transport dynamo (such as a proper butterfly diagram, the proper phase relation between the toroidal and poloidal fields). We consider additional cells of the meridional circulation below the shallow return flow—both the case of multiple cells radially stacked above one another and the case of more complicated cell patterns. As long as there is an equatorward flow in low latitudes at the bottom of the convection zone, we find that the solar behavior is approximately reproduced. However, if there is either no flow or a poleward flow at the bottom of the convection zone, then we cannot reproduce solar behavior. On making the turbulent diffusivity low, we still find periodic behavior, although the period of the cycle becomes unrealistically large. In addition, with a low diffusivity, we do not get the observed correlation between the polar field at the sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, which is reproduced when diffusivity is high. On introducing radially downward pumping, we get a more reasonable period and more solar-like behavior even with low diffusivity.

  9. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

    Varela, M.

    2001-07-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

  10. Global Nonlinear Model Identification with Multivariate Splines

    De Visser, C.C.

    2011-01-01

    At present, model based control systems play an essential role in many aspects of modern society. Application areas of model based control systems range from food processing to medical imaging, and from process control in oil refineries to the flight control systems of modern aircraft. Central to a

  11. Fourier series models through transformation | Omekara | Global ...

    As a result, the square transformation which outperforms the others is adopted. Consequently, each of the multiplicative and additive FSA models fitted to the transformed data are then subjected to a test for white noise based on spectral analysis. The result of this test shows that only the multiplicative model is adequate.

  12. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J.; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. - Highlights: • First global map on insecticide runoff through modelling. • Model predicts upper limit of insecticide exposure when compared to field data. • Water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects. • Insecticide application rate, terrain slope and rainfall main drivers of exposure. - We provide the first global map on insecticide runoff to surface water predicting that water bodies in 40% of global land surface may be at risk of adverse effects

  13. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  14. Finite-correlation-time effects in the kinematic dynamo problem

    Schekochihin, Alexander A.; Kulsrud, Russell M.

    2001-01-01

    Most of the theoretical results on the kinematic amplification of small-scale magnetic fluctuations by turbulence have been confined to the model of white-noise-like (δ-correlated in time) advecting turbulent velocity field. In this work, the statistics of the passive magnetic field in the diffusion-free regime are considered for the case when the advecting flow is finite-time correlated. A new method is developed that allows one to systematically construct the correlation-time expansion for statistical characteristics of the field such as its probability density function or the complete set of its moments. The expansion is valid provided the velocity correlation time is smaller than the characteristic growth time of the magnetic fluctuations. This expansion is carried out up to first order in the general case of a d-dimensional arbitrarily compressible advecting flow. The growth rates for all moments of the magnetic-field strength are derived. The effect of the first-order corrections due to the finite correlation time is to reduce these growth rates. It is shown that introducing a finite correlation time leads to the loss of the small-scale statistical universality, which was present in the limit of the δ-correlated velocity field. Namely, the shape of the velocity time-correlation profile and the large-scale spatial structure of the flow become important. The latter is a new effect, that implies, in particular, that the approximation of a locally-linear shear flow does not fully capture the effect of nonvanishing correlation time. Physical applications of this theory include the small-scale kinematic dynamo in the interstellar medium and protogalactic plasmas

  15. Globalizing High-Tech Business Models

    Turcan, Romeo V.

    2012-01-01

    resources and behavioral patterns. Two sources could be identified that effect these tensions, namely strategic experimentation and business model experimentation. For example, entrepreneurs are trying to ease the tensions in the organizational gestalt as a result of a change in the business model...... and growth path. To internationalize, international new ventures have to develop a product-led business model as services do not travel. Opting to attract venture capital, entrepreneurs are to deal with dyadic tensions that are the result of differences in entrepreneurs’ and VCs’ goals and measures...

  16. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  17. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  18. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J

    2006-01-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quant...

  19. Leveraging the Global Health Service Partnership Model for Workforce Development in Global Radiation Oncology

    Omoruyi Credit Irabor

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A major contributor to the disparity in cancer outcome across the globe is the limited health care access in low- and middle-income countries that results from the shortfall in human resources for health (HRH, fomented by the limited training and leadership capacity of low-resource countries. In 2012, Seed Global Health teamed up with the Peace Corps to create the Global Health Service Partnership, an initiative that has introduced a novel model for tackling the HRH crises in developing regions of the world. The Global Health Service Partnership has made global health impacts in leveraging partnerships for HRH development, faculty activities and output, scholarship engagement, adding value to the learning environment, health workforce empowerment, and infrastructure development.

  20. Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

    Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

    2017-12-01

    Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

  1. Radiative heating in global climate models

    Baer, F.; Arsky, N.; Rocque, K. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

    1996-04-01

    LWR algorithms from various GCMs vary significantly from one another for the same clear sky input data. This variability becomes pronounced when clouds are included. We demonstrate this effect by intercomparing the various models` output using observed data including clouds from ARM/CART data taken in Oklahoma.

  2. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

  3. Global ocean modeling on the Connection Machine

    Smith, R.D.; Dukowicz, J.K.; Malone, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    The authors have developed a version of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean model (Bryan, 1969; Semtner, 1976; Cox, 1984) for massively parallel computers. Such models are three-dimensional, Eulerian models that use latitude and longitude as the horizontal spherical coordinates and fixed depth levels as the vertical coordinate. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, with a turbulent eddy viscosity, and mass continuity equation are solved, subject to the hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximations. The traditional model formulation uses a rigid-lid approximation (vertical velocity = 0 at the ocean surface) to eliminate fast surface waves. These waves would otherwise require that a very short time step be used in numerical simulations, which would greatly increase the computational cost. To solve the equations with the rigid-lid assumption, the equations of motion are split into two parts: a set of twodimensional ''barotropic'' equations describing the vertically-averaged flow, and a set of three-dimensional ''baroclinic'' equations describing temperature, salinity and deviations of the horizontal velocities from the vertically-averaged flow

  4. Accretion disc dynamo activity in local simulations spanning weak-to-strong net vertical magnetic flux regimes

    Salvesen, Greg; Simon, Jacob B.; Armitage, Philip J.; Begelman, Mitchell C.

    2016-03-01

    Strongly magnetized accretion discs around black holes have attractive features that may explain enigmatic aspects of X-ray binary behaviour. The structure and evolution of these discs are governed by a dynamo-like mechanism, which channels part of the accretion power liberated by the magnetorotational instability (MRI) into an ordered toroidal magnetic field. To study dynamo activity, we performed three-dimensional, stratified, isothermal, ideal magnetohydrodynamic shearing box simulations. The strength of the self-sustained toroidal magnetic field depends on the net vertical magnetic flux, which we vary across almost the entire range over which the MRI is linearly unstable. We quantify disc structure and dynamo properties as a function of the initial ratio of mid-plane gas pressure to vertical magnetic field pressure, β _0^mid = p_gas / p_B. For 10^5 ≥ β _0^mid ≥ 10 the effective α-viscosity parameter scales as a power law. Dynamo activity persists up to and including β _0^mid = 10^2, at which point the entire vertical column of the disc is magnetic pressure dominated. Still stronger fields result in a highly inhomogeneous disc structure, with large density fluctuations. We show that the turbulent steady state βmid in our simulations is well matched by the analytic model of Begelman et al. describing the creation and buoyant escape of toroidal field, while the vertical structure of the disc can be broadly reproduced using this model. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results for observed properties of X-ray binaries.

  5. Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo

    Macario-Rojas, Alejandro; Smith, Katharine L.; Roberts, Peter C. E.

    2018-06-01

    We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity -14.4% (±19.5%) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted.

  6. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Measurement of core velocity fluctuations and the dynamo in a reversed-field pinch

    Den Hartog, D.J.; Craig, D.; Fiksel, G.; Fontana, P.W.; Prager, S.C.; Sarff, J.S.; Chapman, J.T.

    1998-01-01

    Plasma flow velocity fluctuations have been directly measured in the high temperature magnetically confined plasma in the Madison Symmetric Torus (MST) Reversed-Field Pinch (RFP). These measurements show that the flow velocity fluctuations are correlated with magnetic field fluctuations. This initial measurement is subject to limitations of spatial localization and other uncertainties, but is evidence for sustainment of the RFP magnetic field configuration by the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) dynamo. Both the flow velocity and magnetic field fluctuations are the result of global resistive MHD modes of helicity m = 1, n = 5--10 in the core of MST. Chord-averaged flow velocity fluctuations are measured in the core of MST by recording the Doppler shift of impurity line emission with a specialized high resolution and throughput grating spectrometer. Magnetic field fluctuations are recorded with a large array of small edge pickup coils, which allows spectral decomposition into discrete modes and subsequent correlation with the velocity fluctuation data

  8. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Lorz, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  9. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    Liu, Jian-Guo

    2011-09-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Retrieving global aerosol sources from satellites using inverse modeling

    O. Dubovik

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding aerosol effects on global climate requires knowing the global distribution of tropospheric aerosols. By accounting for aerosol sources, transports, and removal processes, chemical transport models simulate the global aerosol distribution using archived meteorological fields. We develop an algorithm for retrieving global aerosol sources from satellite observations of aerosol distribution by inverting the GOCART aerosol transport model.

    The inversion is based on a generalized, multi-term least-squares-type fitting, allowing flexible selection and refinement of a priori algorithm constraints. For example, limitations can be placed on retrieved quantity partial derivatives, to constrain global aerosol emission space and time variability in the results. Similarities and differences between commonly used inverse modeling and remote sensing techniques are analyzed. To retain the high space and time resolution of long-period, global observational records, the algorithm is expressed using adjoint operators.

    Successful global aerosol emission retrievals at 2°×2.5 resolution were obtained by inverting GOCART aerosol transport model output, assuming constant emissions over the diurnal cycle, and neglecting aerosol compositional differences. In addition, fine and coarse mode aerosol emission sources were inverted separately from MODIS fine and coarse mode aerosol optical thickness data, respectively. These assumptions are justified, based on observational coverage and accuracy limitations, producing valuable aerosol source locations and emission strengths. From two weeks of daily MODIS observations during August 2000, the global placement of fine mode aerosol sources agreed with available independent knowledge, even though the inverse method did not use any a priori information about aerosol sources, and was initialized with a "zero aerosol emission" assumption. Retrieving coarse mode aerosol emissions was less successful

  12. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Magdala Tesauro; Mikhail Kaban; S. A. P. L. Cloetingh

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member ‘hard’ (HRM) and a ‘soft’ (SR...

  13. Stabilising the global greenhouse. A simulation model

    Michaelis, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecolocially determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically specified and adapted to a dynamic Gams-algorithm. By various simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas accumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) A comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO 2 emissions, and iii) a ten-year moratorium that postpones abatement effort until new scientific evidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whereas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small. (orig.)

  14. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  15. Toward an Integrative Model of Global Business Strategy

    Li, Xin

    fragmentation-integration-fragmentation-integration upward spiral. In response to the call for integrative approach to strategic management research, we propose an integrative model of global business strategy that aims at integrating not only strategy and IB but also the different paradigms within the strategy...... field. We also discuss the merit and limitation of our model....

  16. Combined discriminative global and generative local models for visual tracking

    Zhao, Liujun; Zhao, Qingjie; Chen, Yanming; Lv, Peng

    2016-03-01

    It is a challenging task to develop an effective visual tracking algorithm due to factors such as pose variation, rotation, and so on. Combined discriminative global and generative local appearance models are proposed to address this problem. Specifically, we develop a compact global object representation by extracting the low-frequency coefficients of the color and texture of the object based on two-dimensional discrete cosine transform. Then, with the global appearance representation, we learn a discriminative metric classifier in an online fashion to differentiate the target object from its background, which is very important to robustly indicate the changes in appearance. Second, we develop a new generative local model that exploits the scale invariant feature transform and its spatial geometric information. To make use of the advantages of the global discriminative model and the generative local model, we incorporate them into Bayesian inference framework. In this framework, the complementary models help the tracker locate the target more accurately. Furthermore, we use different mechanisms to update global and local templates to capture appearance changes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy.

  17. Magnetic field dynamos and magnetically triggered flow instabilities

    Stefani, F.; Albrecht, T.; Arlt, R.; Christen, M.; Gailitis, A.; Gellert, M.; Giesecke, A.; Goepfert, O.; Herault, J.; Kirillov, O. N.; Mamatsashvili, G.; Priede, J.; Rüdiger, G.; Seilmayer, M.; Tilgner, A.; Vogt, T.

    2017-07-01

    The project A2 of the LIMTECH Alliance aimed at a better understanding of those magnetohydrodynamic instabilities that are relevant for the generation and the action of cosmic magnetic fields. These comprise the hydromagnetic dynamo effect and various magnetically triggered flow instabilities, such as the magnetorotational instability and the Tayler instability. The project was intended to support the experimental capabilities to become available in the framework of the DREsden Sodium facility for DYNamo and thermohydraulic studies (DRESDYN). An associated starting grant was focused on the dimensioning of a liquid metal experiment on the newly found magnetic destabilization of rotating flows with positive shear. In this survey paper, the main results of these two projects are summarized.

  18. Boundary effects on the MHD dynamo in laboratory plasmas

    Ho, Y.L.; Prager, S.C.

    1989-07-01

    In recent laboratory experiments, a dynamo-like mechanism has been demonstrated in which a portion of the axisymmetric component of the magnetic field is believed to be sustained by 3D spatial fluctuations in the field and flow. With a conducting shell at the plasma surface, past MHD computation shows that sustainment arises from fluctuations which cause magnetic reconnection. If the conducting wall is retracted from the plasma surface, the fluctuations are amplified and the dynamo sustainment is still active for the times studied, but an increased energy input to the plasma is required through the applied electric field. The retraction of the conducting wall enhances the helicity dissipation rate by the intersection of the fields with the resistive surface which bounds the plasma. This enhanced helicity dissipation is balanced by the helicity injection that accompanies the increased applied electric field. 17 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab

  19. Turbulent Dynamo Amplification of Magnetic Fields in Laser-Produced Plasmas: Simulations and Experiments

    Tzeferacos, P.; Rigby, A.; Bott, A.; Bell, A.; Bingham, R.; Casner, A.; Cattaneo, F.; Churazov, E.; Forest, C.; Katz, J.; Koenig, M.; Li, C.-K.; Meinecke, J.; Petrasso, R.; Park, H.-S.; Remington, B.; Ross, J.; Ryutov, D.; Ryu, D.; Reville, B.; Miniati, F.; Schekochihin, A.; Froula, D.; Lamb, D.; Gregori, G.

    2017-10-01

    The universe is permeated by magnetic fields, with strengths ranging from a femtogauss in the voids between the filaments of galaxy clusters to several teragauss in black holes and neutron stars. The standard model for cosmological magnetic fields is the nonlinear amplification of seed fields via turbulent dynamo. We have conceived experiments to demonstrate and study the turbulent dynamo mechanism in the laboratory. Here, we describe the design of these experiments through large-scale 3D FLASH simulations on the Mira supercomputer at ANL, and the laser-driven experiments we conducted with the OMEGA laser at LLE. Our results indicate that turbulence is capable of rapidly amplifying seed fields to near equipartition with the turbulent fluid motions. This work was supported in part from the ERC (FP7/2007-2013, No. 256973 and 247039), and the U.S. DOE, Contract No. B591485 to LLNL, FWP 57789 to ANL, Grant No. DE-NA0002724 and DE-SC0016566 to the University of Chicago, and DE-AC02-06CH11357 to ANL.

  20. Hidden hyperchaos and electronic circuit application in a 5D self-exciting homopolar disc dynamo

    Wei, Zhouchao; Moroz, Irene; Sprott, J. C.; Akgul, Akif; Zhang, Wei

    2017-03-01

    We report on the finding of hidden hyperchaos in a 5D extension to a known 3D self-exciting homopolar disc dynamo. The hidden hyperchaos is identified through three positive Lyapunov exponents under the condition that the proposed model has just two stable equilibrium states in certain regions of parameter space. The new 5D hyperchaotic self-exciting homopolar disc dynamo has multiple attractors including point attractors, limit cycles, quasi-periodic dynamics, hidden chaos or hyperchaos, as well as coexisting attractors. We use numerical integrations to create the phase plane trajectories, produce bifurcation diagram, and compute Lyapunov exponents to verify the hidden attractors. Because no unstable equilibria exist in two parameter regions, the system has a multistability and six kinds of complex dynamic behaviors. To the best of our knowledge, this feature has not been previously reported in any other high-dimensional system. Moreover, the 5D hyperchaotic system has been simulated using a specially designed electronic circuit and viewed on an oscilloscope, thereby confirming the results of the numerical integrations. Both Matlab and the oscilloscope outputs produce similar phase portraits. Such implementations in real time represent a new type of hidden attractor with important consequences for engineering applications.

  1. Interdecadal variability in a global coupled model

    Storch, J.S. von.

    1994-01-01

    Interdecadal variations are studied in a 325-year simulation performed by a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model. The patterns obtained in this study may be considered as characteristic patterns for interdecadal variations. 1. The atmosphere: Interdecadal variations have no preferred time scales, but reveal well-organized spatial structures. They appear as two modes, one is related with variations of the tropical easterlies and the other with the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Both have red spectra. The amplitude of the associated wind anomalies is largest in the upper troposphere. The associated temperature anomalies are in thermal-wind balance with the zonal winds and are out-of-phase between the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. 2. The Pacific Ocean: The dominant mode in the Pacific appears to be wind-driven in the midlatitudes and is related to air-sea interaction processes during one stage of the oscillation in the tropics. Anomalies of this mode propagate westward in the tropics and the northward (southwestward) in the North (South) Pacific on a time scale of about 10 to 20 years. (orig.)

  2. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  3. Laminar and Turbulent Dynamos in Chiral Magnetohydrodynamics. I. Theory

    Rogachevskii, Igor; Kleeorin, Nathan [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, P.O. Box 653, Beer-Sheva 84105 (Israel); Ruchayskiy, Oleg [Discovery Center, Niels Bohr Institute, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen (Denmark); Boyarsky, Alexey [Instituut-Lorentz for Theoretical Physics, Universiteit Leiden, Niels Bohrweg 2, 2333 CA Leiden (Netherlands); Fröhlich, Jürg [Institute of Theoretical Physics, ETH Hönggerberg, CH-8093 Zurich (Switzerland); Brandenburg, Axel; Schober, Jennifer, E-mail: gary@bgu.ac.il [Nordita, KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University, Roslagstullsbacken 23, SE-10691 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2017-09-10

    The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) description of plasmas with relativistic particles necessarily includes an additional new field, the chiral chemical potential associated with the axial charge (i.e., the number difference between right- and left-handed relativistic fermions). This chiral chemical potential gives rise to a contribution to the electric current density of the plasma ( chiral magnetic effect ). We present a self-consistent treatment of the chiral MHD equations , which include the back-reaction of the magnetic field on a chiral chemical potential and its interaction with the plasma velocity field. A number of novel phenomena are exhibited. First, we show that the chiral magnetic effect decreases the frequency of the Alfvén wave for incompressible flows, increases the frequencies of the Alfvén wave and of the fast magnetosonic wave for compressible flows, and decreases the frequency of the slow magnetosonic wave. Second, we show that, in addition to the well-known laminar chiral dynamo effect, which is not related to fluid motions, there is a dynamo caused by the joint action of velocity shear and chiral magnetic effect. In the presence of turbulence with vanishing mean kinetic helicity, the derived mean-field chiral MHD equations describe turbulent large-scale dynamos caused by the chiral alpha effect, which is dominant for large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers. The chiral alpha effect is due to an interaction of the chiral magnetic effect and fluctuations of the small-scale current produced by tangling magnetic fluctuations (which are generated by tangling of the large-scale magnetic field by sheared velocity fluctuations). These dynamo effects may have interesting consequences in the dynamics of the early universe, neutron stars, and the quark–gluon plasma.

  4. Dynamos of the Sun, Stars, and Planets - Preface

    Stix, M.

    2005-04-01

    The conference ``Dynamos of the Sun, Stars, and Planets'' was organized by the Kiepenheuer-Institut für Sonnenphysik Freiburg, and was held at the University of Freiburg from 4th to 6th October 2004. About 50 participants attended the conference, with 8 review lectures, 20 contributed talks, and 6 posters. With only few exceptions, these contributions appear in the present issue of Astronomische Nachrichten. This preface summarizes the discussion of the closing session.

  5. Laminar and Turbulent Dynamos in Chiral Magnetohydrodynamics. I. Theory

    Rogachevskii, Igor; Kleeorin, Nathan; Ruchayskiy, Oleg; Boyarsky, Alexey; Fröhlich, Jürg; Brandenburg, Axel; Schober, Jennifer

    2017-01-01

    The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) description of plasmas with relativistic particles necessarily includes an additional new field, the chiral chemical potential associated with the axial charge (i.e., the number difference between right- and left-handed relativistic fermions). This chiral chemical potential gives rise to a contribution to the electric current density of the plasma ( chiral magnetic effect ). We present a self-consistent treatment of the chiral MHD equations , which include the back-reaction of the magnetic field on a chiral chemical potential and its interaction with the plasma velocity field. A number of novel phenomena are exhibited. First, we show that the chiral magnetic effect decreases the frequency of the Alfvén wave for incompressible flows, increases the frequencies of the Alfvén wave and of the fast magnetosonic wave for compressible flows, and decreases the frequency of the slow magnetosonic wave. Second, we show that, in addition to the well-known laminar chiral dynamo effect, which is not related to fluid motions, there is a dynamo caused by the joint action of velocity shear and chiral magnetic effect. In the presence of turbulence with vanishing mean kinetic helicity, the derived mean-field chiral MHD equations describe turbulent large-scale dynamos caused by the chiral alpha effect, which is dominant for large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers. The chiral alpha effect is due to an interaction of the chiral magnetic effect and fluctuations of the small-scale current produced by tangling magnetic fluctuations (which are generated by tangling of the large-scale magnetic field by sheared velocity fluctuations). These dynamo effects may have interesting consequences in the dynamics of the early universe, neutron stars, and the quark–gluon plasma.

  6. Chaotic Dynamos Generated by a Turbulent Flow of Liquid Sodium

    Ravelet, F.; Monchaux, R.; Aumaitre, S.; Chiffaudel, A.; Daviaud, F.; Dubrulle, B.; Berhanu, M.; Fauve, S.; Mordant, N.; Petrelis, F.; Bourgoin, M.; Odier, Ph.; Plihon, N.; Pinton, J.-F.; Volk, R.

    2008-01-01

    We report the observation of several dynamical regimes of the magnetic field generated by a turbulent flow of liquid sodium (VKS experiment). Stationary dynamos, transitions to relaxation cycles or to intermittent bursts, and random field reversals occur in a fairly small range of parameters. Large scale dynamics of the magnetic field result from the interactions of a few modes. The low dimensional nature of these dynamics is not smeared out by the very strong turbulent fluctuations of the flow

  7. Dynamos driven by poloidal flows in untwisted, curved and flat Riemannian diffusive flux tubes

    De Andrade, L.C.G.

    2010-01-01

    Recently Vishik anti-fast dynamo theorem has been tested against non-stretching flux tubes (Phys. Plasmas, 15 (2008)). In this paper, another anti dynamo theorem, called Cowling's theorem, which states that axisymmetric magnetic fields cannot support dynamo action, is carefully tested against thick tubular and curved Riemannian untwisted flows, as well as thin flux tubes in diffusive and diffusion less media. In the non-diffusive media Cowling's theorem is not violated in thin Riemann-flat untwisted flux tubes, where the Frenet curvature is negative. Nevertheless the diffusion action in the thin flux tube leads to a dynamo action driven by poloidal flows as shown by Love and Gubbins (Geophysical Res., 23 (1996) 857) in the context of geo dynamos. Actually it is shown that a slow dynamo action is obtained. In this case the Frenet and Riemann curvature still vanishes. In the case of magnetic filaments in diffusive media dynamo action is obtained when the Frenet scalar curvature is negative. Since the Riemann curvature tensor can be expressed in terms of the Frenet curvature of the magnetic flux tube axis, this result can be analogous to a recent result obtained by Chicone, Latushkin and Smith, which states that geodesic curvature in compact Riemannian manifolds can drive dynamo action in the manifold. It is also shown that in the absence of diffusion, magnetic energy does not grow but magnetic toroidal magnetic field can be generated by the poloidal field, what is called a plasma dynamo.

  8. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

    2009-11-30

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  9. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  10. Archaeomagnetic Dating in Europe Using a Global Geomagnetic Field Model

    Lodge, A.; Suttie, N.; Holme, R.; Shaw, J.; Hill, M. J.; Linford, P.

    2009-12-01

    Using up-to-date archaeomagnetic data from Europe and CALS7K.2 as an apriori model, we produce a global geomagnetic field model to be used for archaeomagnetic dating in Europe. More details on the modelling process will be presented elsewhere (in session GP12, abstract: Geophysical insights from archaeomagnetic dating). Here we apply the global geomagnetic field model to a series of test cases from both recently published data and unpublished data to demonstrate its application to archaeomagnetic dating. We compare the results produced using our model with those from the spherical cap harmonic model, SCHA.DIF.3K (Pavón-Carrasco et al., 2009), the global geomagnetic field model, ARCH3K.1 (Korte et al., 2009) and those produced using the palaeosecular variation curves generated using Bayesian statistics (Lanos, 2004). We include examples which emphasise the importance of using three component data (declination, inclination and intensity) to produce an improved archaeomagnetic date. In addition to the careful selection of an appropriate model for archaeomagnetic dating, the choice of errors on the model curves is vital for providing archaeologists with an age range of possible dates. We discuss how best to constrain the errors on the model curves and alternative ways to the mathematical method of Lanos (2004) for producing an archaeomagnetic date for archaeologists.

  11. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  12. Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

    2002-01-01

    Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

  13. Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

    Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a

  14. Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia

    Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.

  15. Global Modeling Study of the Bioavailable Atmospheric Iron Supply to the Global Ocean

    Myriokefalitakis, S.; Krol, M. C.; van Noije, T.; Le Sager, P.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric deposition of trace constituents acts as a nutrient source to the open ocean and affect marine ecosystem. Dust is known as a major source of nutrients to the global ocean, but only a fraction of these nutrients is released in a bioavailable form that can be assimilated by the marine biota. Iron (Fe) is a key micronutrient that significantly modulates gross primary production in the High-Nutrient-Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) oceans, where macronutrients like nitrate are abundant, but primary production is limited by Fe scarcity. The global atmospheric Fe cycle is here parameterized in the state-of-the-art global Earth System Model EC-Earth. The model takes into account the primary emissions of both insoluble and soluble Fe forms, associated with mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The impact of atmospheric acidity and organic ligands on mineral dissolution processes, is parameterized based on updated experimental and theoretical findings. Model results are also evaluated against available observations. Overall, the link between the labile Fe atmospheric deposition and atmospheric composition changes is here demonstrated and quantified. This work has been financed by the Marie-Curie H2020-MSCA-IF-2015 grant (ID 705652) ODEON (Online DEposition over OceaNs; modeling the effect of air pollution on ocean bio-geochemistry in an Earth System Model).

  16. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  17. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  18. Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model

    Roubíček, Tomáš

    2018-03-01

    The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

  19. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  20. Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity

    Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2013-04-01

    In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.

  1. Global GPS Ionospheric Modelling Using Spherical Harmonic Expansion Approach

    Byung-Kyu Choi

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we developed a global ionosphere model based on measurements from a worldwide network of global positioning system (GPS. The total number of the international GPS reference stations for development of ionospheric model is about 100 and the spherical harmonic expansion approach as a mathematical method was used. In order to produce the ionospheric total electron content (TEC based on grid form, we defined spatial resolution of 2.0 degree and 5.0 degree in latitude and longitude, respectively. Two-dimensional TEC maps were constructed within the interval of one hour, and have a high temporal resolution compared to global ionosphere maps which are produced by several analysis centers. As a result, we could detect the sudden increase of TEC by processing GPS observables on 29 October, 2003 when the massive solar flare took place.

  2. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Modelling Global Pattern Formations for Collaborative Learning Environments

    Grappiolo, Corrado; Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Khaled, Rilla

    2012-01-01

    We present our research towards the design of a computational framework capable of modelling the formation and evolution of global patterns (i.e. group structures) in a population of social individuals. The framework is intended to be used in collaborative environments, e.g. social serious games...

  4. Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in ...

    Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in Yola, Nigeria. ... and average daily wind speed (WS) for the interval of three years (2010 – 2012) measured using various instruments for Yola of recorded data collected from the Center for Atmospheric Research (CAR), Anyigba are presented and analyzed.

  5. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  6. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Tesauro, M.; Kaban, M.K.; Cloetingh, S.A.P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young

  7. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

    Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

    1993-09-01

    A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. New Models of Hybrid Leadership in Global Higher Education

    Tonini, Donna C.; Burbules, Nicholas C.; Gunsalus, C. K.

    2016-01-01

    This manuscript highlights the development of a leadership preparation program known as the Nanyang Technological University Leadership Academy (NTULA), exploring the leadership challenges unique to a university undergoing rapid growth in a highly multicultural context, and the hybrid model of leadership it developed in response to globalization.…

  9. GLOBAL STABILITY AND PERIODIC SOLUTION OF A VIRAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Erhan COŞKUN

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract:In this paper, we consider the classical viral dynamic mathematical model. Global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that, if the basic reproduction number, the HIV infection is cleared from the T-cell population; if , the HIV infection persists. For an open set of parameter values, the chronic-infection equilibrium can be unstable and periodic solutions may exist. We establish parameter regions for which is globally stable. Keywords: Global stability, HIV infection; CD4+ T cells; Periodic solution Mathematics Subject Classifications (2000: 65L10, 34B05 BİR VİRAL DİNAMİK MODELİN GLOBAL KARARLILIĞI VE PERİYODİK ÇÖZÜMÜ Özet: Bu makalede klasik viral dinamik modeli ele aldık. Modelin global dinamikleri oluşturuldu. Eğer temel üretim sayısı olur ise HIV enfeksiyonu T hücre nüfusundan çıkartılır, eğer olursa HIV enfeksiyonu çıkartılamaz. Parametre değerlerinin açık bir kümesi için kronik enfeksiyon dengesi kararsızdır ve periyodik çözüm oluşabilir. ın global kararlı olduğu parametre bölgeleri oluşturuldu. Anahtar Kelimeler: Global Kararlılık, HIV enfeksiyon, CD4+ T hücreler, Periyodik çözüm

  10. The Global Classroom Video Conferencing Model and First Evaluations

    Weitze, Charlotte Lærke; Ørngreen, Rikke; Levinsen, Karin

    2013-01-01

    pedagogical innovativeness, including collaborative and technological issues. The research is based on the Global Classroom Model as it is implemented and used at an adult learning center in Denmark (VUC Storstrøm). VUC Storstrøms (VUC) Global Classroom Model is an approach to video conferencing and e......Learning using campus-based teaching combined with laptop solutions for students at home. After a couple of years of campus-to-campus video streaming, VUC started a fulltime day program in 2011 with the support of a hybrid campus and videoconference model. In this model the teachers and some of the students......This paper presents and discusses findings about how students, teachers, and the organization experience a start-up-project applying video conferences between campus and home. This is new territory for adult learning centers. The paper discusses the transition to this eLearning form and discusses...

  11. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  12. Model of global evaluation for energetic resources; Modelo de avaliacao global de recursos energeticos

    Fujii, Ricardo Junqueira; Udaeta, Miguel Edgar Morales; Galvao, Luiz Claudio Ribeiro [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Energia e Automacao Eletricas. Grupo de Energia]. E-mail: ricardo_fujii@pea.usp.br; daeta@pea.usp.br; lcgalvao@pea.usp.br

    2006-07-01

    The traditional energy planning usually takes into account the technical economical costs, considered alongside environmental and a few political restraints; however, there is a lack of methods to evenly assess environmental, economical, social and political costs. This work tries to change such scenario by elaborating a model to characterize an energy resource in all four dimensions - environmental, political, social and economical - in an integrated view. The model aims at two objectives: provide a method to assess the global cost of the energy resource and estimate its potential considering the limitations provided by these dimensions. To minimize the complexity of the integration process, the model strongly recommends the use of the Full Cost Accounting - FCA - method to assess the costs and benefits from any given resource. The FCA allows considering quantitative and qualitative costs, reducing the need of quantitative data, which are limited in some cases. The model has been applied in the characterization of the region of Aracatuba, located in the west part of the state of Sao Paulo - Brazil. The results showed that the potential of renewable sources are promising, especially when the global costs are considered. Some resources, in spite of being economically attractive, don't provide an acceptable global cost. It became clear that the model is a valuable tool when the conventional tools fail to address many issues, especially the need of an integrated view on the planning process; the results from this model can be applied in a portfolio selection method to evaluate the best options for a power system expansion. It has to be noticed that the usefulness of this model can be increased when adopted with a method to analyze demand side management measures, thus offering a complete set of possible choices of energy options for the decision maker. (author)

  13. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    Li Guihua [Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Faculty of Life Science, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China) and Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)]. E-mail: liguihua@nuc.edu.cn; Wang Wendi [Department of Mathematics, Southwest China Normal University, Chongqing 400715 (China); Jin Zhen [Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan Shanxi 030051 (China)

    2006-11-15

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory.

  14. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    Li Guihua; Wang Wendi; Jin Zhen

    2006-01-01

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory

  15. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  16. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  17. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  18. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  19. Global characteristics of geomagnetic excursions as seen in global empirical models and a numerical geodynamo simulation

    Korte, M. C.; Wardinski, I.; Brown, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Paleomagnetic results from sediments and lava flows provide observational evidence of numerous geomagnetic excursions throughout Earth's history. Two new spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models covering 50-30 ka, including the Laschamp ( 41ka) and Mono Lake ( 32-35 ka) excursions allow us to characterize the global behaviour of these events, both at Earth's surface and the core-mantle boundary. We investigate the evolution of dipole and large-scale non-dipole power throughout the duration of the model and the morphology of the large-scale radial field at the core-mantle boundary. The models suggest clear differences in both the decrease in axial dipole strength and dipole tilt between the two excursions and unlike the previously published model by Leonhardt et al. (2009), they suggest some increase of non-dipole power during the early and late stages of the Laschamp excursion. Global characteristics from the models can be directly compared with results from numerical simulations. We do so for several excursions generated by a numerical simulation driven by purely compositional convection, which appears Earth-like in terms of excursion and reversal occurrence frequency. Excursions from this simulation show differing characteristics, including differences in spectral power evolution. Some cases show similarities to the Laschamp and Mono Lake excursions in the spherical harmonic models. In particular they all indicate that excursions are mainly governed by the axial dipole term and equatorial dipole terms play a minor role.

  20. First Numerical Simulations of Turbulent Dynamos Driven by Libration, Precession and Tides in Triaxial Ellipsoids - An Alternative Route for Planetary Magnetism

    Le Bars, M.; Kanuganti, S. R.; Favier, B.

    2017-12-01

    Most of the time, planetary dynamos are - tacitly or not - associated with thermo-solutal convection. The convective dynamo model has indeed proven successful to explain the current Earth's magnetic field. However, its results are sometimes difficult to reconcile with observational data and its validity can be questioned for several celestial bodies. For instance, the small size of the Moon and Ganymede makes it difficult to maintain a sufficient temperature gradient to sustain convection and to explain their past and present magnetic fields, respectively. The same caveat applies to the growing number of planetesimals shown to have generated magnetic fields in their early history. Finally, the energy budget of the early Earth is difficult to reconcile with a convective dynamo before the onset of inner core growth. Significant effort has thus been put into finding new routes for planetary dynamo. In particular, the rotational dynamics of planets, moons and small bodies, where their average spinning motion is periodically perturbed by the small mechanical forcings of libration, precession and/or tides, is now widely accepted as an efficient source of core turbulence. The underlying mechanism relies on a parametric instability where the inertial waves of the rotating fluid core are resonantly excited by the small forcing, leading to exponential growth and bulk filling intense motions, pumping their energy from the orbital dynamics. Dynamos driven by mechanical forcing have been suggested for the Moon, Mars, Io, the early Earth, etc. However, the real dynamo capacity of the corresponding flows has up-to-now been studied only in very limited cases, with simplified spherical/spheroidal geometries and/or overly viscous fluids. We will present here the first numerical simulations of dynamos driven by libration, precession and tides, in the triaxial ellipsoidal geometry and in the turbulent regime relevant for planetary cores. We will describe the numerical techniques

  1. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  2. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  3. Global solution for a chemotactic haptotactic model of cancer invasion

    Tao, Youshan; Wang, Mingjun

    2008-10-01

    This paper deals with a mathematical model of cancer invasion of tissue recently proposed by Chaplain and Lolas. The model consists of a reaction-diffusion-taxis partial differential equation (PDE) describing the evolution of tumour cell density, a reaction-diffusion PDE governing the evolution of the proteolytic enzyme concentration and an ordinary differential equation modelling the proteolysis of the extracellular matrix (ECM). In addition to random motion, the tumour cells are directed not only by haptotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of adhesive molecules along the ECM) but also by chemotaxis (cellular locomotion directed in response to a concentration gradient of the diffusible proteolytic enzyme). In one space dimension, the global existence and uniqueness of a classical solution to this combined chemotactic-haptotactic model is proved for any chemotactic coefficient χ > 0. In two and three space dimensions, the global existence is proved for small χ/μ (where μ is the logistic growth rate of the tumour cells). The fundamental point of proof is to raise the regularity of a solution from L1 to Lp (p > 1). Furthermore, the existence of blow-up solutions to a sub-model in two space dimensions for large χ shows, to some extent, that the condition that χ/μ is small is necessary for the global existence of a solution to the full model.

  4. Global Earth Response to Loading by Ocean Tide Models

    Estes, R. H.; Strayer, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical and programming techniques to numerically calculate Earth response to global semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tide models were developed. Global vertical crustal deformations were evaluated for M sub 2, S sub 2, N sub 2, K sub 2, K sub 1, O sub 1, and P sub 1 ocean tide loading, while horizontal deformations were evaluated for the M sub 2 tidal load. Tidal gravity calculations were performed for M sub 2 tidal loads, and strain tensor elements were evaluated for M sub 2 loads. The M sub 2 solution used for the ocean tide included the effects of self-gravitation and crustal loading.

  5. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  6. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  7. Atmospheric solar tides and their electrodynamic effects. I. The global Ssub(q) current system

    Forbes, J M; Lindzen, R S [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, Mass. (USA)

    1976-09-01

    This paper is Part I of a study dealing with the electrodynamic consequences of solar tides in the E-region of the Earth's atmosphere. The major result to emerge from Part I is that E-region dynamo action of combined diurnal and semidiurnal winds consistent with measurements is found to account for the Ssub(q) variations in ground magnetic data, without having to resort to electric fields of plasmaspheric origin as suggested in the recent literature. Real discrepancies of the order of 20% in amplitude and 1 to 2 h in phase still exist between the data and the present theoretical model. The model couples a global thin-shell dynamo solution which takes into account the vertical structure of the winds with a full three-dimensional model of the equatorial electrojet. Part I is primarily concerned with the classical thin-shell global solution, whereas Part II (Forbes et al., J. Atmos. Terr. Phys.; 38:911 (1976)) deals solely with the equatorial electrojet; however, the equatorial magnetic variations to be presented here are taken from Part II. Previous global dynamo models have utilized winds which are shown to be unrealistic by recent measurements and dissipative tidal theory, and do not include the important effects of vertical current flow at the magnetic equator. Inclusion of vertical current effects, which are discussed in detail in Part II, relaxes the need for E-region diurnal wind speeds as large as those required by previous workers to reproduce the Ssub(q) current system. Computed vertical structures of the Ssub(q) currents explain some puzzling features of the few midlatitude rocket magnetometer measurements that are available. The Joule heating by Ssub(q) currents is comparable to solar EUV heating above 60/sup 0/N, but contribute negligibly to the total heat budget of the thermosphere.

  8. Impact of Convection on Surface Fluxes Observed During LASP/DYNAMO 2011

    2014-12-01

    20  Figure 8.  FFM maneuver used in the LASP/DYNAMO experiment (from Wang et al. 2013...Atmosphere Response Experiment DYNAMO Dynamics of Madden-Julian Oscillation EM electro-magnetic EO electro-optical FFM flight-level flux mapping FVS...level flux mapping ( FFM ) modules. Convection modules consisted of dropsonde cloud survey or radar convective element maneuver. Dropsonde modules

  9. Energy transfers and magnetic energy growth in small-scale dynamo

    Kumar, Rohit Raj; Verma, Mahendra K.; Samtaney, Ravi

    2013-01-01

    In this letter we investigate the dynamics of magnetic energy growth in small-scale dynamo by studying energy transfers, mainly energy fluxes and shell-to-shell energy transfers. We perform dynamo simulations for the magnetic Prandtl number Pm = 20

  10. The global electroweak Standard Model fit after the Higgs discovery

    Baak, Max

    2013-01-01

    We present an update of the global Standard Model (SM) fit to electroweak precision data under the assumption that the new particle discovered at the LHC is the SM Higgs boson. In this scenario all parameters entering the calculations of electroweak precision observalbes are known, allowing, for the first time, to over-constrain the SM at the electroweak scale and assert its validity. Within the SM the W boson mass and the effective weak mixing angle can be accurately predicted from the global fit. The results are compatible with, and exceed in precision, the direct measurements. An updated determination of the S, T and U parameters, which parametrize the oblique vacuum corrections, is given. The obtained values show good consistency with the SM expectation and no direct signs of new physics are seen. We conclude with an outlook to the global electroweak fit for a future e+e- collider.

  11. A global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness.

    Raffone, Antonino; Pantani, Martina

    2010-06-01

    Both the global workspace theory and Block's distinction between phenomenal and access consciousness, are central in the current debates about consciousness and the neural correlates of consciousness. In this article, a unifying global workspace model for phenomenal and access consciousness is proposed. In the model, recurrent neural interactions take place in distinct yet interacting access and phenomenal brain loops. The effectiveness of feedback signaling onto sensory cortical maps is emphasized for the neural correlates of phenomenal consciousness. Two forms of top-down attention, attention for perception and attention for access, play differential roles for phenomenal and access consciousness. The model is implemented in a neural network form, with the simulation of single and multiple visual object processing, and of the attentional blink. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  13. [Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

    Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

    2014-08-01

    Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

  14. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

  15. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper developed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by implementing four programs. All programs were conducted with students majoring nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, most of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students’ reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students’ awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre and post-program implementation. We discuss how identifying students’ needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula.

  16. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  17. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  18. Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

    Wang, Hesheng, E-mail: hesheng@umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Feng, Mary [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Jackson, Andrew [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Cao, Yue [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.

  19. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  20. Global stability of two models with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis

    Yang Yali; Li Jianquan; Ma Zhien; Liu Luju

    2010-01-01

    Research highlights: → Two tuberculosis models with incomplete treatment. → Intuitive epidemiological interpretations for the basic reproduction numbers. → Global dynamics of the two models. → Strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis. - Abstract: Two tuberculosis (TB) models with incomplete treatment are investigated. It is assumed that the treated individuals may enter either the latent compartment due to the remainder of Mycobacterium tuberculosis or the infectious compartment due to the treatment failure. The first model is a simple one with treatment failure reflecting the current TB treatment fact in most countries with high tuberculosis incidence. The second model refines the simple one by dividing the latent compartment into slow and fast two kinds of progresses. This improvement can be used to describe the case that the latent TB individuals have been infected with some other chronic diseases (such as HIV and diabetes) which may weaken the immunity of infected individuals and shorten the latent period of TB. Both of the two models assume mass action incidence and exponential distributions of transfers between different compartments. The basic reproduction numbers of the two models are derived and their intuitive epidemiological interpretations are given. The global dynamics of two models are all proved by using Liapunov functions. At last, some strategies to control the spread of tuberculosis are discussed.

  1. A Global Change in Higher Education: Entrepreneurial University Model

    Süreyya SAKINÇ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Universities are affected by the social and economic diversity stemmed from globalization and internationalization, and its functions, area of responsibility, organizational structure, funding capability respond this diversity. In today's knowledge society, different new concepts regarding the university education system such as Entrepreneur University, Corporation University, virtual university etc. have been emerged with wave of globalization effect. The rising competition in academic education and the mass demands for education prompt to universities to get seeking new funds for fixing their financial situation, and hit them transforming into entrepreneurial identity. The reflections of neoliberal approach in education have transformed the universities into the corporations which are much more focused on entrepreneurial, student-oriented and aimed to appropriate education and producing creative human resources for global development. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation will be carried on regarding the entrepreneur university model through the litterateur research to investigate its causes and factors that impact and improve it. The aim of the paper is to generate a framework that identifies dynamic processes of entrepreneur university model, dependently the litterateur syntheses. The contribution of the paper will depend on its consequent argument that entrepreneur university model is viable for Turkey. In this paper, the entrepreneur university model will be analyzed by Triple Helix phenomenon with the comparative approach.

  2. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  3. Preparing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for global retrospective air quality modeling

    The US EPA has a plan to leverage recent advances in meteorological modeling to develop a "Next-Generation" air quality modeling system that will allow consistent modeling of problems from global to local scale. The meteorological model of choice is the Model for Predic...

  4. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  5. Turbulent Diffusion of the Geomagnetic Field and Dynamo Theories

    Filippi, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The thesis deals with the Dynamo Theories of the Earth’s Magnetic Field and mainly deepens the turbulence phenomena in the fluid Earth’s core. Indeed, we think that these phenomena are very important to understand the recent decay of the geomagnetic field. The thesis concerns also the dynamics of the outer core and some very rapid changes of the geomagnetic field observed in the Earth’s surface and some aspects regarding the (likely) isotropic turbulence in the Magnetohydrodynamics. These top...

  6. The magnetic universe geophysical and astrophysical dynamo theory

    Rüdiger, Günther

    2004-01-01

    Magnetism is one of the most pervasive features of the Universe, with planets, stars and entire galaxies all having associated magnetic fields. All of these fields are generated by the motion of electrically conducting fluids, the so-called dynamo effect. The precise details of what drives the motion, and indeed what the fluid consists of, differ widely though. In this work the authors draw upon their expertise in geophysical and astrophysical MHD to explore some of these phenomena, and describe the similarities and differences between different magnetized objects. They also explain why magn

  7. A homopolar disc dynamo experiment with liquid metal contacts

    Avalos-Zúñiga, R. A.; Priede, J.; Bello-Morales, C. E.

    2017-01-01

    We present experimental results of a homopolar disc dynamo constructed at CICATA-Quer\\'etaro in Mexico. The device consists of a flat, multi-arm spiral coil which is placed above a fast-spinning metal disc and connected to the latter by sliding liquid-metal electrical contacts. Theoretically, self-excitation of the magnetic field is expected at the critical magnetic Reynolds number Rm~45, which corresponds to a critical rotation rate of about 10 Hz. We measured the magnetic field above the di...

  8. Energy coupling function and solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo

    Kan, J.R.; Lee, L.C.

    1979-01-01

    The power delivered by the solar wind dynamo to the open magnetosphere is calculated based on the concept of field line reconnection, independent of the MHD steady reconnection theories. By recognizing a previously overlooked geometrical relationship between the reconnection electric field and the magnetic field, the calculated power is shown to be approximately proportional to the Akasofu-Perreault energy coupling function for the magnetospheric substorm. In addition to the polar cap potential, field line reconnection also gives rise to parallel electric fields on open field lines in the high-latitude cusp and the polar cap reions

  9. Finite correlation time effects in kinematic dynamo problem

    Schekochihin, A.A.; Kulsrud, R.M.

    2000-01-01

    One-point statistics of the magnetic fluctuations in kinematic regime with large Prandtl number and non delta-correlated in time advecting velocity field are studied. A perturbation expansion in the ratio of the velocity correlation time to the dynamo growth time is constructed in the spirit of the Kliatskin-Tatarskii functional method and carried out to first order. The convergence properties are improved compared to the commonly used van Kampen-Terwiel method. The zeroth-order growth rate of the magnetic energy is estimated to be reduced (in three dimensions) by approximately 40%. This reduction is quite close to existing numerical results

  10. Bioavailable atmospheric phosphorous supply to the global ocean: a 3-D global modeling study

    Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Nenes, Athanasios; Baker, Alex R.; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-12-01

    The atmospheric cycle of phosphorus (P) is parameterized here in a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemistry transport model, taking into account primary emissions of total P (TP) and soluble P (DP) associated with mineral dust, combustion particles from natural and anthropogenic sources, bioaerosols, sea spray and volcanic aerosols. For the present day, global TP emissions are calculated to be roughly 1.33 Tg-P yr-1, with the mineral sources contributing more than 80 % to these emissions. The P solubilization from mineral dust under acidic atmospheric conditions is also parameterized in the model and is calculated to contribute about one-third (0.14 Tg-P yr-1) of the global DP atmospheric source. To our knowledge, a unique aspect of our global study is the explicit modeling of the evolution of phosphorus speciation in the atmosphere. The simulated present-day global annual DP deposition flux is 0.45 Tg-P yr-1 (about 40 % over oceans), showing a strong spatial and temporal variability. Present-day simulations of atmospheric P aerosol concentrations and deposition fluxes are satisfactory compared with available observations, indicating however an underestimate of about 70 % on current knowledge of the sources that drive the P atmospheric cycle. Sensitivity simulations using preindustrial (year 1850) anthropogenic and biomass burning emission scenarios showed a present-day increase of 75 % in the P solubilization flux from mineral dust, i.e., the rate at which P is converted into soluble forms, compared to preindustrial times, due to increasing atmospheric acidity over the last 150 years. Future reductions in air pollutants due to the implementation of air-quality regulations are expected to decrease the P solubilization flux from mineral dust by about 30 % in the year 2100 compared to the present day. Considering, however, that all the P contained in bioaerosols is readily available for uptake by marine organisms, and also accounting for all other DP sources, a total

  11. Global Fluxon Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

    Lamb, D. A.; DeForest, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    The fluxon approach to MHD modeling enables simulations of low-beta plasmas in the absence of undesirable numerical effects such as diffusion and magnetic reconnection. The magnetic field can be modeled as a collection of discrete field lines ("fluxons") containing a set amount of magnetic flux in a prescribed field topology. Due to the fluxon model's pseudo-Lagrangian grid, simulations can be completed in a fraction of the time of traditional grid-based simulations, enabling near-real-time simulations of the global magnetic field structure and its influence on solar wind properties. Using SDO/HMI synoptic magnetograms as lower magnetic boundary conditions, and a separate one-dimensional fluid flow model attached to each fluxon, we compare the resulting fluxon relaxations with other commonly-used global models (such as PFSS), and with white-light images of the corona (including the August 2017 total solar eclipse). Finally, we show the computed magnetic field expansion ratio, and the modeled solar wind speed near the coronal-heliospheric transition. Development of the fluxon MHD model FLUX (the Field Line Universal relaXer), has been funded by NASA's Living with a Star program and by Southwest Research Institute.

  12. Global Bifurcation of a Novel Computer Virus Propagation Model

    Jianguo Ren

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In a recent paper by J. Ren et al. (2012, a novel computer virus propagation model under the effect of the antivirus ability in a real network is established. The analysis there only partially uncovers the dynamics behaviors of virus spread over the network in the case where around bifurcation is local. In the present paper, by mathematical analysis, it is further shown that, under appropriate parameter values, the model may undergo a global B-T bifurcation, and the curves of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation are obtained to illustrate the qualitative behaviors of virus propagation. On this basis, a collection of policies is recommended to prohibit the virus prevalence. To our knowledge, this is the first time the global bifurcation has been explored for the computer virus propagation. Theoretical results and corresponding suggestions may help us suppress or eliminate virus propagation in the network.

  13. Power Elites and Club-Model Governance in Global Finance

    Tsingou, Eleni

    2014-01-01

    Contribution to the Forum: Unpacking the Deep Structures of Global Governance: How Transnational Professionals Can Make Global Governance Intelligible.......Contribution to the Forum: Unpacking the Deep Structures of Global Governance: How Transnational Professionals Can Make Global Governance Intelligible....

  14. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

    2013-08-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

  15. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    Sunjoo Kang

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The co...

  16. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J.

    2006-06-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quantifying the errors in regional and global budgets. The sensitivity to vertical mixing through the parameterization of boundary layer turbulence is also examined. We find less ozone production in the boundary layer at higher resolution, consistent with slower chemical production in polluted emission regions and greater export of precursors. Agreement with ozonesonde and aircraft measurements made during the NASA TRACE-P campaign over the western Pacific in spring 2001 is consistently better at higher resolution. We demonstrate that the numerical errors in transport processes on a given resolution converge geometrically for a tracer at successively higher resolutions. The convergence in ozone production on progressing from T21 to T42, T63, and T106 resolution is likewise monotonic but indicates that there are still large errors at 120 km scales, suggesting that T106 resolution is too coarse to resolve regional ozone production. Diagnosing the ozone production and precursor transport that follow a short pulse of emissions over east Asia in springtime allows us to quantify the impacts of resolution on both regional and global ozone. Production close to continental emission regions is overestimated by 27% at T21 resolution, by 13% at T42 resolution, and by 5% at T106 resolution. However, subsequent ozone production in the free troposphere is not greatly affected. We find that the export of short-lived precursors such as NOx by convection is overestimated at coarse resolution.

  17. An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

    Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

    2015-04-01

    The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

  18. Globalization and migration: A "unified brain drain" model

    Brezis, Elise S.; Soueri, Ariel

    2012-01-01

    Globalization has led to a vast flow of migration of workers but also of students. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the migration of individuals encompassing decisions already at the level of education. We develop a unified brain drain model that incorporates the decisions of an individual vis - à - vis both education and migration. In the empirical part, this paper addresses international flows of migration within the EU and presents strong evidence of concentration of students in cou...

  19. An Analysis of Yip's Global Strategy Model, Using Coca-Cola ...

    Analysis of the selected business cases suggest a weak fit between the Yip model of a truly Global strategy ... like Coca-Cola in the beverage industry for effective implementation of a global strategy. ... Keywords: Global Strategy, Leadership.

  20. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  1. GLOFRIM v1.0-A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

    Hoch, Jannis M.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Baart, Fedor; Van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Bates, Paul D.; Bierkens, Marc F.P.

    2017-01-01

    We here present GLOFRIM, a globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling. GLOFRIM facilitates spatially explicit coupling of hydrodynamic and hydrologic models and caters for an ensemble of models to be coupled. It currently encompasses the global

  2. Solar Field Mapping and Dynamo Behavior

    Kenneth H. Schatten

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss the importance of the Sun’s large-scale magnetic field to the Sun-Planetary environment. This paper narrows its focus down to the motion and evolution of the photospheric large-scale magnetic field which affects many environments throughout this region. For this purpose we utilize a newly developed Netlogo cellular automata model. The domain of this algorithmic model is the Sun’s photosphere. Within this computational space are placed two types of entities or agents; one may refer to them as bluebirds and cardinals; the former carries outward magnetic flux and the latter carries out inward magnetic flux. One may simply call them blue and red agents. The agents provide a granularity with discrete changes not present in smooth MHD models; they undergo three processes: birth, motion, and death within the photospheric domain. We discuss these processes, as well as how we are able to develop a model that restricts its domain to the photosphere and allows the deeper layers to be considered only through boundary conditions. We show the model’s ability to mimic a number of photospheric magnetic phenomena: the solar cycle (11-year oscillations, the Waldmeier effect, unipolar magnetic regions (e.g. sectors and coronal holes, Maunder minima, and the march/rush to the poles involving the geometry of magnetic field reversals. We also discuss why the Sun sometimes appears as a magnetic monopole, which of course requires no alteration of Maxwell’s equations.

  3. Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland

    Walsh, John E.; Chapman, William L.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

    2008-01-01

    The performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-Arctic and Northern Hemisphere extratropical domains. Root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958...... to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and the broader Arctic....... of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. There is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the Arctic, as well as larger increases of Arctic...

  4. Mapping the global depth to bedrock for land surface modelling

    Shangguan, W.; Hengl, T.; Yuan, H.; Dai, Y. J.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depth to bedrock serves as the lower boundary of land surface models, which controls hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. This paper presents a framework for global estimation of Depth to bedrock (DTB). Observations were extracted from a global compilation of soil profile data (ca. 130,000 locations) and borehole data (ca. 1.6 million locations). Additional pseudo-observations generated by expert knowledge were added to fill in large sampling gaps. The model training points were then overlaid on a stack of 155 covariates including DEM-based hydrological and morphological derivatives, lithologic units, MODIS surfacee reflectance bands and vegetation indices derived from the MODIS land products. Global spatial prediction models were developed using random forests and Gradient Boosting Tree algorithms. The final predictions were generated at the spatial resolution of 250m as an ensemble prediction of the two independently fitted models. The 10-fold cross-validation shows that the models explain 59% for absolute DTB and 34% for censored DTB (depths deep than 200 cm are predicted as 200 cm). The model for occurrence of R horizon (bedrock) within 200 cm does a good job. Visual comparisons of predictions in the study areas where more detailed maps of depth to bedrock exist show that there is a general match with spatial patterns from similar local studies. Limitation of the data set and extrapolation in data spare areas should not be ignored in applications. To improve accuracy of spatial prediction, more borehole drilling logs will need to be added to supplement the existing training points in under-represented areas.

  5. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  6. Global Stability of an Epidemic Model of Computer Virus

    Xiaofan Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid popularization of the Internet, computers can enter or leave the Internet increasingly frequently. In fact, no antivirus software can detect and remove all sorts of computer viruses. This implies that viruses would persist on the Internet. To better understand the spread of computer viruses in these situations, a new propagation model is established and analyzed. The unique equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable, in accordance with the reality. A parameter analysis of the equilibrium is also conducted.

  7. Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 Version: Users Guide

    Justh, H. L.

    2014-01-01

    This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 (Mars-GRAM 2010) and its new features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Applications include systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for aerobraking, entry, descent and landing, and aerocapture. Additionally, this TM includes instructions on obtaining the Mars-GRAM source code and data files as well as running Mars-GRAM. It also contains sample Mars-GRAM input and output files and an example of how to incorporate Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

  8. Global atmospheric model for mercury including oxidation by bromine atoms

    C. D. Holmes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Global models of atmospheric mercury generally assume that gas-phase OH and ozone are the main oxidants converting Hg0 to HgII and thus driving mercury deposition to ecosystems. However, thermodynamic considerations argue against the importance of these reactions. We demonstrate here the viability of atomic bromine (Br as an alternative Hg0 oxidant. We conduct a global 3-D simulation with the GEOS-Chem model assuming gas-phase Br to be the sole Hg0 oxidant (Hg + Br model and compare to the previous version of the model with OH and ozone as the sole oxidants (Hg + OH/O3 model. We specify global 3-D Br concentration fields based on our best understanding of tropospheric and stratospheric Br chemistry. In both the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models, we add an aqueous photochemical reduction of HgII in cloud to impose a tropospheric lifetime for mercury of 6.5 months against deposition, as needed to reconcile observed total gaseous mercury (TGM concentrations with current estimates of anthropogenic emissions. This added reduction would not be necessary in the Hg + Br model if we adjusted the Br oxidation kinetics downward within their range of uncertainty. We find that the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models are equally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of TGM and its seasonal cycle at northern mid-latitudes. The Hg + Br model shows a steeper decline of TGM concentrations from the tropics to southern mid-latitudes. Only the Hg + Br model can reproduce the springtime depletion and summer rebound of TGM observed at polar sites; the snowpack component of GEOS-Chem suggests that 40% of HgII deposited to snow in the Arctic is transferred to the ocean and land reservoirs, amounting to a net deposition flux to the Arctic of 60 Mg a−1. Summertime events of depleted Hg0 at Antarctic sites due to subsidence are much better simulated by

  9. An Instructional Development Model for Global Organizations: The GOaL Model.

    Hara, Noriko; Schwen, Thomas M.

    1999-01-01

    Presents an instructional development model, GOaL (Global Organization Localization), for use by global organizations. Topics include gaps in language, culture, and needs; decentralized processes; collaborative efforts; predetermined content; multiple perspectives; needs negotiation; learning within context; just-in-time training; and bilingual…

  10. Dynamo Effects in Magnetized Ideal Plasma Cosmologies

    Kleidis, Kostas; Kuiroukidis, Apostolos; Papadopoulos, Demetrios; Vlahos, Loukas

    The excitation of cosmological perturbations in an anisotropic cosmological model and in the presence of a homogeneous magnetic field has been studied, using the ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations. In this case, the system of partial differential equations which governs the evolution of the magnetized cosmological perturbations can be solved analytically. Our results verify that fast-magnetosonic modes propagating normal to the magnetic field, are excited. But, what is most important, is that, at late times, the magnetic-induction contrast (δB/B) grows, resulting in the enhancement of the ambient magnetic field. This process can be particularly favored by condensations, formed within the plasma fluid due to gravitational instabilities.

  11. Non-linear quenching of current fluctuations in a self-exciting homopolar dynamo, proved by feedback system theory

    A. M. de Paor

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Hide (Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1998 has produced a new mathematical model of a self-exciting homopolar dynamo driving a series- wound motor, as a continuing contribution to the theory of the geomagnetic field. By a process of exact perturbation analysis, followed by combination and partial solution of differential equations, the complete nonlinear quenching of current fluctuations reported by Hide in the case that a parameter ε has the value 1 is proved via the Popov theorem from feedback system stability theory.

  12. The Global Modeling Test Bed - Building a New National Capability for Advancing Operational Global Modeling in the United States.

    Toepfer, F.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Kuo, W.; Tallapragada, V.; Stajner, I.; Nance, L. B.; Kelleher, K. E.; Firl, G.; Bernardet, L.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA develops, operates, and maintains an operational global modeling capability for weather, sub seasonal and seasonal prediction for the protection of life and property and fostering the US economy. In order to substantially improve the overall performance and accelerate advancements of the operational modeling suite, NOAA is partnering with NCAR to design and build the Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB). The GMTB has been established to provide a platform and a capability for researchers to contribute to the advancement primarily through the development of physical parameterizations needed to improve operational NWP. The strategy to achieve this goal relies on effectively leveraging global expertise through a modern collaborative software development framework. This framework consists of a repository of vetted and supported physical parameterizations known as the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP), a common well-documented interface known as the Interoperable Physics Driver (IPD) for combining schemes into suites and for their configuration and connection to dynamic cores, and an open evidence-based governance process for managing the development and evolution of CCPP. In addition, a physics test harness designed to work within this framework has been established in order to facilitate easier like-to-like comparison of physics advancements. This paper will present an overview of the design of the CCPP and test platform. Additionally, an overview of potential new opportunities of how physics developers can engage in the process, from implementing code for CCPP/IPD compliance to testing their development within an operational-like software environment, will be presented. In addition, insight will be given as to how development gets elevated to CPPP-supported status, the pre-cursor to broad availability and use within operational NWP. An overview of how the GMTB can be expanded to support other global or regional modeling capabilities will also be presented.

  13. Dynamo generation of magnetic fields in three-dimensional space: Solar cycle main flux tube formation and reversals

    Yoshimura, H.

    1983-01-01

    Dynamo processes as a magnetic field generation mechanism in astrophysics can be described essentially by movement and deformation of magnetic field lines due to plasma fluid motions. A basic element of the processes is a kinematic problem. As an important prototype of these processes, we investigate the case of the solar magnetic cycle. To follow the movement and deformation, we solve magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations by a numerical method with a prescribed velocity field. A simple combination of differential rotation and global convection, given by a linear analysis of fluid dynamics in a rotating sphere, can perpetually create and reverse great magnetic flux tubes encircling the Sun. We call them the main flux tubes of the solar cycle. They are progenitors of small-scale flux ropes of the solar activity. This shows that magnetic field generation by fluid motions is, in fact, possible and that MHD equations have a new type of oscillatory solution. The solar cycle can be identified with one of such oscillatory solutions. This means that we can follow detailed stages of the field generation and reversal processes of the dynamo by continuously observing the Sun. It is proposed that the magnetic flux tube formation by streaming plasma flows exemplified here could be a universal mechanism of flux tube formation in astrophysics

  14. Do Methods Matter in Global Leadership Development? Testing the Global Leadership Development Ecosystem Conceptual Model

    Walker, Jennie L.

    2018-01-01

    As world communication, technology, and trade become increasingly integrated through globalization, multinational corporations seek employees with global leadership skills. However, the demand for these skills currently outweighs the supply. Given the rarity of globally ready leaders, global competency development should be emphasized in business…

  15. Log-Normal Turbulence Dissipation in Global Ocean Models

    Pearson, Brodie; Fox-Kemper, Baylor

    2018-03-01

    Data from turbulent numerical simulations of the global ocean demonstrate that the dissipation of kinetic energy obeys a nearly log-normal distribution even at large horizontal scales O (10 km ) . As the horizontal scales of resolved turbulence are larger than the ocean is deep, the Kolmogorov-Yaglom theory for intermittency in 3D homogeneous, isotropic turbulence cannot apply; instead, the down-scale potential enstrophy cascade of quasigeostrophic turbulence should. Yet, energy dissipation obeys approximate log-normality—robustly across depths, seasons, regions, and subgrid schemes. The distribution parameters, skewness and kurtosis, show small systematic departures from log-normality with depth and subgrid friction schemes. Log-normality suggests that a few high-dissipation locations dominate the integrated energy and enstrophy budgets, which should be taken into account when making inferences from simplified models and inferring global energy budgets from sparse observations.

  16. Understanding Global Change: Frameworks and Models for Teaching Systems Thinking

    Bean, J. R.; Mitchell, K.; Zoehfeld, K.; Oshry, A.; Menicucci, A. J.; White, L. D.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    The scientific and education communities must impart to teachers, students, and the public an understanding of how the various factors that drive climate and global change operate, and why the rates and magnitudes of these changes related to human perturbation of Earth system processes today are cause for deep concern. Even though effective educational modules explaining components of the Earth and climate system exist, interdisciplinary learning tools are necessary to conceptually link the causes and consequences of global changes. To address this issue, the Understanding Global Change Project at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) at UC Berkeley developed an interdisciplinary framework that organizes global change topics into three categories: (1) causes of climate change, both human and non-human (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, Earth's tilt and orbit), (2) Earth system processes that shape the way the Earth works (e.g., Earth's energy budget, water cycle), and (3) the measurable changes in the Earth system (e.g., temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification). To facilitate student learning about the Earth as a dynamic, interacting system, a website will provide visualizations of Earth system models and written descriptions of how each framework topic is conceptually linked to other components of the framework. These visualizations and textual summarizations of relationships and feedbacks in the Earth system are a unique and crucial contribution to science communication and education, informed by a team of interdisciplinary scientists and educators. The system models are also mechanisms by which scientists can communicate how their own work informs our understanding of the Earth system. Educators can provide context and relevancy for authentic datasets and concurrently can assess student understanding of the interconnectedness of global change phenomena. The UGC resources will be available through a web-based platform and

  17. Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

    Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

  18. Global Bedload Flux Modeling and Analysis in Large Rivers

    Islam, M. T.; Cohen, S.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Proper sediment transport quantification has long been an area of interest for both scientists and engineers in the fields of geomorphology, and management of rivers and coastal waters. Bedload flux is important for monitoring water quality and for sustainable development of coastal and marine bioservices. Bedload measurements, especially for large rivers, is extremely scarce across time, and many rivers have never been monitored. Bedload measurements in rivers, is particularly acute in developing countries where changes in sediment yields is high. The paucity of bedload measurements is the result of 1) the nature of the problem (large spatial and temporal uncertainties), and 2) field costs including the time-consuming nature of the measurement procedures (repeated bedform migration tracking, bedload samplers). Here we present a first of its kind methodology for calculating bedload in large global rivers (basins are >1,000 km. Evaluation of model skill is based on 113 bedload measurements. The model predictions are compared with an empirical model developed from the observational dataset in an attempt to evaluate the differences between a physically-based numerical model and a lumped relationship between bedload flux and fluvial and basin parameters (e.g., discharge, drainage area, lithology). The initial study success opens up various applications to global fluvial geomorphology (e.g. including the relationship between suspended sediment (wash load) and bedload). Simulated results with known uncertainties offers a new research product as a valuable resource for the whole scientific community.

  19. Globally covering a-priori regional gravity covariance models

    D. Arabelos

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Gravity anomaly data generated using Wenzel’s GPM98A model complete to degree 1800, from which OSU91A has been subtracted, have been used to estimate covariance functions for a set of globally covering equal-area blocks of size 22.5° × 22.5° at Equator, having a 2.5° overlap. For each block an analytic covariance function model was determined. The models are based on 4 parameters: the depth to the Bjerhammar sphere (determines correlation, the free-air gravity anomaly variance, a scale factor of the OSU91A error degree-variances and a maximal summation index, N, of the error degree-variances. The depth of Bjerhammar-sphere varies from -134km to nearly zero, N varies from 360 to 40, the scale factor from 0.03 to 38.0 and the gravity variance from 1081 to 24(10µms-22. The parameters are interpreted in terms of the quality of the data used to construct OSU91A and GPM98A and general conditions such as the occurrence of mountain chains. The variation of the parameters show that it is necessary to use regional covariance models in order to obtain a realistic signal to noise ratio in global applications.Key words. GOCE mission, Covariance function, Spacewise approach`

  20. Glass viscosity calculation based on a global statistical modelling approach

    Fluegel, Alex

    2007-02-01

    A global statistical glass viscosity model was developed for predicting the complete viscosity curve, based on more than 2200 composition-property data of silicate glasses from the scientific literature, including soda-lime-silica container and float glasses, TV panel glasses, borosilicate fiber wool and E type glasses, low expansion borosilicate glasses, glasses for nuclear waste vitrification, lead crystal glasses, binary alkali silicates, and various further compositions from over half a century. It is shown that within a measurement series from a specific laboratory the reported viscosity values are often over-estimated at higher temperatures due to alkali and boron oxide evaporation during the measurement and glass preparation, including data by Lakatos et al. (1972) and the recently published High temperature glass melt property database for process modeling by Seward et al. (2005). Similarly, in the glass transition range many experimental data of borosilicate glasses are reported too high due to phase separation effects. The developed global model corrects those errors. The model standard error was 9-17°C, with R^2 = 0.985-0.989. The prediction 95% confidence interval for glass in mass production largely depends on the glass composition of interest, the composition uncertainty, and the viscosity level. New insights in the mixed-alkali effect are provided.

  1. RED DWARF DYNAMO RAISES PUZZLE OVER INTERIORS OF LOWEST-MASS STARS

    2002-01-01

    NASA's Hubble Space Telescope has uncovered surprising evidence that powerful magnetic fields might exist around the lowest mass stars in the universe, which are near the threshold of stellar burning processes. 'New theories will have to be developed to explain how these strong fields are produced, since conventional models predict that these low mass red dwarfs should have very weak or no magnetic fields,' says Dr. Jeffrey Linsky of the Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics (JILA) in Boulder, Colorado. 'The Hubble observations provide clear evidence that very low mass red dwarf stars must have some form of dynamo to amplify their magnetic fields.' His conclusions are based upon Hubble's detection of a high-temperature outburst, called a flare, on the surface of the extremely small, cool red dwarf star Van Biesbroeck 10 (VB10) also known as Gliese 752B. Stellar flares are caused by intense, twisted magnetic fields that accelerate and contain gasses which are much hotter than a star's surface. Explosive flares are common on the Sun and expected for stars that have internal structures similar to our Sun's. Stars as small as VB10 are predicted to have a simpler internal structure than that of the Sun and so are not expected to generate the electric currents required for magnetic fields that drive flares. Besides leading to a clearer understanding of the interior structure of the smallest red dwarf stars known, these unexpected results might possibly shed light on brown dwarf stars. A brown dwarf is a long-sought class of astronomical object that is too small to shine like a star through nuclear fusion processes, but is too large to be considered a planet. 'Since VB10 is nearly a brown dwarf, it is likely brown dwarfs also have strong magnetic fields,' says Linsky. 'Additional Hubble searches for flares are needed to confirm this prediction.' A QUARTER-MILLION DEGREE TORCH The star VB10 and its companion star Gliese 752A make up a binary system located 19 light

  2. Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

    Y. Zhao

    2009-11-01

    generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

  3. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  4. Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

    Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

    2013-07-15

    Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

    Kaneko, D.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires

  6. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  7. Global Gauge Anomalies in Two-Dimensional Bosonic Sigma Models

    Gawȩdzki, Krzysztof; Suszek, Rafał R.; Waldorf, Konrad

    2011-03-01

    We revisit the gauging of rigid symmetries in two-dimensional bosonic sigma models with a Wess-Zumino term in the action. Such a term is related to a background closed 3-form H on the target space. More exactly, the sigma-model Feynman amplitudes of classical fields are associated to a bundle gerbe with connection of curvature H over the target space. Under conditions that were unraveled more than twenty years ago, the classical amplitudes may be coupled to the topologically trivial gauge fields of the symmetry group in a way which assures infinitesimal gauge invariance. We show that the resulting gauged Wess-Zumino amplitudes may, nevertheless, exhibit global gauge anomalies that we fully classify. The general results are illustrated on the example of the WZW and the coset models of conformal field theory. The latter are shown to be inconsistent in the presence of global anomalies. We introduce a notion of equivariant gerbes that allow an anomaly-free coupling of the Wess-Zumino amplitudes to all gauge fields, including the ones in non-trivial principal bundles. Obstructions to the existence of equivariant gerbes and their classification are discussed. The choice of different equivariant structures on the same bundle gerbe gives rise to a new type of discrete-torsion ambiguities in the gauged amplitudes. An explicit construction of gerbes equivariant with respect to the adjoint symmetries over compact simply connected simple Lie groups is given.

  8. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  9. Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

    Sahagian, Dork

    1995-01-01

    Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

  10. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  11. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  12. Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs

    Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.

    2011-01-01

    The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)

  13. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  14. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  15. Simplifiying global biogeochemistry models to evaluate methane emissions

    Gerber, S.; Alonso-Contes, C.

    2017-12-01

    Process-based models are important tools to quantify wetland methane emissions, particularly also under climate change scenarios, evaluating these models is often cumbersome as they are embedded in larger land-surface models where fluctuating water table and the carbon cycle (including new readily decomposable plant material) are predicted variables. Here, we build on these large scale models but instead of modeling water table and plant productivity we provide values as boundary conditions. In contrast, aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, as well as soil column transport of oxygen and methane are predicted by the model. Because of these simplifications, the model has the potential to be more readily adaptable to the analysis of field-scale data. Here we determine the sensitivity of the model to specific setups, parameter choices, and to boundary conditions in order to determine set-up needs and inform what critical auxiliary variables need to be measured in order to better predict field-scale methane emissions from wetland soils. To that end we performed a global sensitivity analysis that also considers non-linear interactions between processes. The global sensitivity analysis revealed, not surprisingly, that water table dynamics (both mean level and amplitude of fluctuations), and the rate of the carbon cycle (i.e. net primary productivity) are critical determinants of methane emissions. The depth-scale where most of the potential decomposition occurs also affects methane emissions. Different transport mechanisms are compensating each other to some degree: If plant conduits are constrained, methane emissions by diffusive flux and ebullition compensate to some degree, however annual emissions are higher when plants help to bypass methanotrophs in temporally unsaturated upper layers. Finally, while oxygen consumption by plant roots help creating anoxic conditions it has little effect on overall methane emission. Our initial sensitivity analysis helps guiding

  16. ACCURACY ASSESSMENT OF RECENT GLOBAL OCEAN TIDE MODELS AROUND ANTARCTICA

    J. Lei

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8 is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  17. Accuracy Assessment of Recent Global Ocean Tide Models around Antarctica

    Lei, J.; Li, F.; Zhang, S.; Ke, H.; Zhang, Q.; Li, W.

    2017-09-01

    Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8) is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region) are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  18. The nonlinear differential equations governing a hierarchy of self-exciting coupled Faraday-disk homopolar dynamos

    Hide, Raymond

    1997-02-01

    This paper discusses the derivation of the autonomous sets of dimensionless nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE's) that govern the behaviour of a hierarchy of related electro-mechanical self-exciting Faraday-disk homopolar dynamo systems driven by steady mechanical couples. Each system comprises N interacting units which could be arranged in a ring or lattice. Within each unit and connected in parallel or in series with the coil are electric motors driven into motion by the dynamo, all having linear characteristics, so that nonlinearity arises entirely through the coupling between components. By introducing simple extra terms into the equations it is possible to represent biasing effects arising from impressed electromotive forces due to thermoelectric or chemical processes and from the presence of ambient magnetic fields. Dissipation in the system is due not only to ohmic heating but also to mechanical friction in the disk and the motors, with the latter agency, no matter how weak, playing an unexpectedly crucial rôle in the production of régimes of chaotic behaviour. This has already been demonstrated in recent work on a case of a single unit incorporating just one series motor, which is governed by a novel autonomous set of nonlinear ODE's with three time-dependent variables and four control parameters. It will be of mathematical as well as geophysical and astrophysical interest to investigate systematically phase and amplitude locking and other types of behaviour in the more complicated cases that arise when N > 1, which can typically involve up to 6 N dependent variables and 19 N-5 control parameters. Even the simplest members of the hierarchy, with N as low as 1, 2 or 3, could prove useful as physically-realistic low-dimensional models in theoretical studies of fluctuating stellar and planetary magnetic fields. Geomagnetic polarity reversals could be affected by the presence of the Earth's solid metallic inner core, driven like an electric motor

  19. A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM

    Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Balyk, Olexandr

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to test the ETSAP2-TIAM global energy system model and to try out how far it can go towards a global 100% renewable energy system with the existing model database. This will show where limits in global resources are met and where limits in the data fed to the model until now are met...

  20. Solar Physics at Evergreen: Solar Dynamo and Chromospheric MHD

    Zita, E. J.; Maxwell, J.; Song, N.; Dikpati, M.

    2006-12-01

    We describe our five year old solar physics research program at The Evergreen State College. Famed for its cloudy skies, the Pacific Northwest is an ideal location for theoretical and remote solar physics research activities. Why does the Sun's magnetic field flip polarity every 11 years or so? How does this contribute to the magnetic storms Earth experiences when the Sun's field reverses? Why is the temperature in the Sun's upper atmosphere millions of degrees higher than the Sun's surface temperature? How do magnetic waves transport energy in the Sun’s chromosphere and the Earth’s atmosphere? How does solar variability affect climate change? Faculty and undergraduates investigate questions such as these in collaboration with the High Altitude Observatory (HAO) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder. We will describe successful student research projects, logistics of remote computing, and our current physics investigations into (1) the solar dynamo and (2) chromospheric magnetohydrodynamics.

  1. Signal classification using global dynamical models, Part I: Theory

    Kadtke, J.; Kremliovsky, M.

    1996-01-01

    Detection and classification of signals is one of the principal areas of signal processing, and the utilization of nonlinear information has long been considered as a way of improving performance beyond standard linear (e.g. spectral) techniques. Here, we develop a method for using global models of chaotic dynamical systems theory to define a signal classification processing chain, which is sensitive to nonlinear correlations in the data. We use it to demonstrate classification in high noise regimes (negative SNR), and argue that classification probabilities can be directly computed from ensemble statistics in the model coefficient space. We also develop a modification for non-stationary signals (i.e. transients) using non-autonomous ODEs. In Part II of this paper, we demonstrate the analysis on actual open ocean acoustic data from marine biologics. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  2. A Global Modeling Framework for Plasma Kinetics: Development and Applications

    Parsey, Guy Morland

    The modern study of plasmas, and applications thereof, has developed synchronously with com- puter capabilities since the mid-1950s. Complexities inherent to these charged-particle, many- body, systems have resulted in the development of multiple simulation methods (particle-in-cell, fluid, global modeling, etc.) in order to both explain observed phenomena and predict outcomes of plasma applications. Recognizing that different algorithms are chosen to best address specific topics of interest, this thesis centers around the development of an open-source global model frame- work for the focused study of non-equilibrium plasma kinetics. After verification and validation of the framework, it was used to study two physical phenomena: plasma-assisted combustion and the recently proposed optically-pumped rare gas metastable laser. Global models permeate chemistry and plasma science, relying on spatial averaging to focus attention on the dynamics of reaction networks. Defined by a set of species continuity and energy conservation equations, the required data and constructed systems are conceptually similar across most applications, providing a light platform for exploratory and result-search parameter scan- ning. Unfortunately, it is common practice for custom code to be developed for each application-- an enormous duplication of effort which negatively affects the quality of the software produced. Presented herein, the Python-based Kinetic Global Modeling framework (KGMf) was designed to support all modeling phases: collection and analysis of reaction data, construction of an exportable system of model ODEs, and a platform for interactive evaluation and post-processing analysis. A symbolic ODE system is constructed for interactive manipulation and generation of a Jacobian, both of which are compiled as operation-optimized C-code. Plasma-assisted combustion and ignition (PAC/PAI) embody the modernization of burning fuel by opening up new avenues of control and optimization

  3. Investigation of Global Imbalances Based on a Gravity Model

    Hyun-Hoon Lee

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Using the US Treasury International Capital (TIC data, this paper attempts to analyze the size and trend of foreign investment in the U.S. in the form of equities, bonds and bank lending during the period of 2001-2007. In addition, this paper assesses the determinants of foreign investment in the U.S., using the financial gravity model which includes an East Asian dummy as an explanatory variable. The results show that most East Asian countries have invested more in the U.S. than the optimal level suggested by the gravity model. Such an over-investment is more evident in long-term bond investment than in equity investment or bank lending. Thus, the results confirm that global imbalance does exist between East Asian countries and the U.S.

  4. Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2001-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

  5. Modeling of the global carbon cycle - isotopic data requirements

    Ciais, P.

    1994-01-01

    Isotopes are powerful tools to constrain carbon cycle models. For example, the combinations of the CO 2 and the 13 C budget allows to calculate the net-carbon fluxes between atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere. Observations of natural and bomb-produced radiocarbon allow to estimate gross carbon exchange fluxes between different reservoirs and to deduce time scales of carbon overturning in important reservoirs. 18 O in CO 2 is potentially a tool to make the deconvolution of C fluxes within the land biosphere (assimilation vs respirations). The scope of this article is to identify gaps in our present knowledge about isotopes in the light of their use as constraint for the global carbon cycle. In the following we will present a list of some future data requirements for carbon cycle models. (authors)

  6. Helicity--vorticity turbulent pumping of magnetic fields in the solar dynamo

    Pipin, V. V.

    2012-01-01

    The interaction of helical convective motions and differential rotation in the solar convection zone results in turbulent drift of a large-scale magnetic field. We discuss the pumping mechanism and its impact on the solar dynamo.

  7. Towards a Global Unified Model of Europa's Tenuous Atmosphere

    Plainaki, Christina; Cassidy, Tim A.; Shematovich, Valery I.; Milillo, Anna; Wurz, Peter; Vorburger, Audrey; Roth, Lorenz; Galli, André; Rubin, Martin; Blöcker, Aljona; Brandt, Pontus C.; Crary, Frank; Dandouras, Iannis; Jia, Xianzhe; Grassi, Davide; Hartogh, Paul; Lucchetti, Alice; McGrath, Melissa; Mangano, Valeria; Mura, Alessandro; Orsini, Stefano; Paranicas, Chris; Radioti, Aikaterini; Retherford, Kurt D.; Saur, Joachim; Teolis, Ben

    2018-02-01

    Despite the numerous modeling efforts of the past, our knowledge on the radiation-induced physical and chemical processes in Europa's tenuous atmosphere and on the exchange of material between the moon's surface and Jupiter's magnetosphere remains limited. In lack of an adequate number of in situ observations, the existence of a wide variety of models based on different scenarios and considerations has resulted in a fragmentary understanding of the interactions of the magnetospheric ion population with both the moon's icy surface and neutral gas envelope. Models show large discrepancy in the source and loss rates of the different constituents as well as in the determination of the spatial distribution of the atmosphere and its variation with time. The existence of several models based on very different approaches highlights the need of a detailed comparison among them with the final goal of developing a unified model of Europa's tenuous atmosphere. The availability to the science community of such a model could be of particular interest in view of the planning of the future mission observations (e.g., ESA's JUpiter ICy moons Explorer (JUICE) mission, and NASA's Europa Clipper mission). We review the existing models of Europa's tenuous atmosphere and discuss each of their derived characteristics of the neutral environment. We also discuss discrepancies among different models and the assumptions of the plasma environment in the vicinity of Europa. A summary of the existing observations of both the neutral and the plasma environments at Europa is also presented. The characteristics of a global unified model of the tenuous atmosphere are, then, discussed. Finally, we identify needed future experimental work in laboratories and propose some suitable observation strategies for upcoming missions.

  8. Magnetism, dynamo action and the solar-stellar connection

    Allan Sacha Brun

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Sun and other stars are magnetic: magnetism pervades their interiors and affects their evolution in a variety of ways. In the Sun, both the fields themselves and their influence on other phenomena can be uncovered in exquisite detail, but these observations sample only a moment in a single star’s life. By turning to observations of other stars, and to theory and simulation, we may infer other aspects of the magnetism—e.g., its dependence on stellar age, mass, or rotation rate—that would be invisible from close study of the Sun alone. Here, we review observations and theory of magnetism in the Sun and other stars, with a partial focus on the “Solar-stellar connection”: i.e., ways in which studies of other stars have influenced our understanding of the Sun and vice versa. We briefly review techniques by which magnetic fields can be measured (or their presence otherwise inferred in stars, and then highlight some key observational findings uncovered by such measurements, focusing (in many cases on those that offer particularly direct constraints on theories of how the fields are built and maintained. We turn then to a discussion of how the fields arise in different objects: first, we summarize some essential elements of convection and dynamo theory, including a very brief discussion of mean-field theory and related concepts. Next we turn to simulations of convection and magnetism in stellar interiors, highlighting both some peculiarities of field generation in different types of stars and some unifying physical processes that likely influence dynamo action in general. We conclude with a brief summary of what we have learned, and a sampling of issues that remain uncertain or unsolved.

  9. Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko

    2016-04-01

    Modeling paradigms on global scales may need to be reconsidered in order to better utilize the power of massively parallel processing. For high computational efficiency with distributed memory, each core should work on a small subdomain of the full integration domain, and exchange only few rows of halo data with the neighbouring cores. Note that the described scenario strongly favors horizontally local discretizations. This is relatively easy to achieve in regional models. However, the spherical geometry complicates the problem. The latitude-longitude grid with local in space and explicit in time differencing has been an early choice and remained in use ever since. The problem with this method is that the grid size in the longitudinal direction tends to zero as the poles are approached. So, in addition to having unnecessarily high resolution near the poles, polar filtering has to be applied in order to use a time step of a reasonable size. However, the polar filtering requires transpositions involving extra communications as well as more computations. The spectral transform method and the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian schemes opened the way for application of spectral representation. With some variations, such techniques are currently dominating in global models. Unfortunately, the horizontal non-locality is inherent to the spectral representation and implicit time differencing, which inhibits scaling on a large number of cores. In this respect the lat-lon grid with polar filtering is a step in the right direction, particularly at high resolutions where the Legendre transforms become increasingly expensive. Other grids with reduced variability of grid distances, such as various versions of the cubed sphere and the hexagonal/pentagonal ("soccer ball") grids, were proposed almost fifty years ago. However, on these grids, large-scale (wavenumber 4 and 5) fictitious solutions ("grid imprinting") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that

  10. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  11. Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

    S. M. Griffies

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4 of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1 tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2 partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3 more accurate equation of state, (4 three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5 incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6 neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7 staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8 anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9 parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10 incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11 transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux' methods, (12 parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

  12. Synoptic, Global Mhd Model For The Solar Corona

    Cohen, Ofer; Sokolov, I. V.; Roussev, I. I.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2007-05-01

    The common techniques for mimic the solar corona heating and the solar wind acceleration in global MHD models are as follow. 1) Additional terms in the momentum and energy equations derived from the WKB approximation for the Alfv’en wave turbulence; 2) some empirical heat source in the energy equation; 3) a non-uniform distribution of the polytropic index, γ, used in the energy equation. In our model, we choose the latter approach. However, in order to get a more realistic distribution of γ, we use the empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model to constrain the MHD solution. The WSA model provides the distribution of the asymptotic solar wind speed from the potential field approximation; therefore it also provides the distribution of the kinetic energy. Assuming that far from the Sun the total energy is dominated by the energy of the bulk motion and assuming the conservation of the Bernoulli integral, we can trace the total energy along a magnetic field line to the solar surface. On the surface the gravity is known and the kinetic energy is negligible. Therefore, we can get the surface distribution of γ as a function of the final speed originating from this point. By interpolation γ to spherically uniform value on the source surface, we use this spatial distribution of γ in the energy equation to obtain a self-consistent, steady state MHD solution for the solar corona. We present the model result for different Carrington Rotations.

  13. Bipolar Jets Launched by a Mean-field Accretion Disk Dynamo

    Fendt, Christian; Gaßmann, Dennis

    2018-03-01

    By applying magnetohydrodynamic simulations, we investigate the launching of jets driven by a disk magnetic field generated by a mean-field disk dynamo. Extending our earlier studies, we explore the bipolar evolution of the disk α 2Ω-dynamo and the outflow. We confirm that a negative dynamo-α leads to a dipolar field geometry, whereas positive values generate quadrupolar fields. The latter remain mainly confined to the disk and cannot launch outflows. We investigate a parameter range for the dynamo-α ranging from a critical value below which field generation is negligible, {α }0,{crit}=-0.0005, to α 0 = ‑1.0. For weak | {α }0| ≤slant 0.07, two magnetic loop structures with opposite polarity may arise, which leads to reconnection and disturbs the field evolution and accretion-ejection process. For a strong dynamo-α, a higher poloidal magnetic energy is reached, roughly scaling with {E}mag}∼ | {α }0| , which also leads to higher accretion and ejection rates. The terminal jet speed is governed by the available magnetic energy and increases with the dynamo-α. We find jet velocities on the order of the inner disk Keplerian velocity. For a strong dynamo-α, oscillating dynamo modes may occur that can lead to a pulsed ejection. This is triggered by an oscillating mode in the toroidal field component. The oscillation period is comparable to the Keplerian timescale in the launching region, thus too short to be associated with the knots in observed jets. We find a hemispherically asymmetric evolution for the jet and counter-jet in the mass flux and field structure.

  14. The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

    Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

    2016-12-01

    The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

  15. Accelerating the Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) model on Intel Xeon Phi processors

    Wang, Hui; Chen, Huansheng; Wu, Qizhong; Lin, Junming; Chen, Xueshun; Xie, Xinwei; Wang, Rongrong; Tang, Xiao; Wang, Zifa

    2017-01-01

    The GNAQPMS model is the global version of the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modelling System (NAQPMS), which is a multi-scale chemical transport model used for air quality forecast and atmospheric environmental research. In this study, we present our work of porting and optimizing the GNAQPMS model on the second generation Intel Xeon Phi processor codename “Knights Landing” (KNL). Compared with the first generation Xeon Phi coprocessor, KNL introduced many new hardware features such as a boo...

  16. Development and evaluation of global radon transport model

    Kojima, H.; Nagano, K.

    2003-01-01

    The radioactive noble gas Radon-222 ( 222 Rn) is chemically inert and is removed only by radioactive decay (T1/2=3.8 d). Its primary source is uniformly distributed over the continents and the ocean represents a secondary source of atmospheric 222 Rn. The strong contrast in source strength between continents and the ocean makes 222 Rn an ideal marker of continental air masses. Because of its simple properties, the temporal and spatial distribution of 222 Rn in the troposphere is straightforward to simulate by means of atmospheric transport models. The simulation provides an intuitive visualization of the complex transport characteristics and more definite proof of phenomenon. In this paper, we present the results of an exploratory study, in which we investigated the performance of a three-dimensional transport model of the global troposphere in simulating the long range transport of 222 Rn. The transport equation has been solved by a numerical procedure based on some boundary conditions. The model structure which we have originally developed, has a horizontal resolution of 2.5deg in latitude and 2.5deg in longitude, and 10 layers in the vertical dimension. The basic computational time step used in the model runs was set to 5 min. The simulations described in this article were performed by means of a transport model driven by global objective analytical data of a time resolution of 6 h, supplied by the Japan Meteorological Agency. We focus on the west of North Pacific Ocean, were the influence of air pollution from an Asian Continent and the Japan Islands was received. For simulation experiments, radon data from some shipboard measurements on the North Pacific Ocean have been used in the present study. Figure shows time series of model prediction with different latitude distributions of radon exhalation rate and measured radon data. We find that our model consistently produce the observation. We will discuss the characteristics of the temporal and special

  17. Towards accounting for dissolved iron speciation in global ocean models

    A. Tagliabue

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The trace metal iron (Fe is now routinely included in state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry models (OGCBMs because of its key role as a limiting nutrient in regions of the world ocean important for carbon cycling and air-sea CO2 exchange. However, the complexities of the seawater Fe cycle, which impact its speciation and bioavailability, are simplified in such OGCBMs due to gaps in understanding and to avoid high computational costs. In a similar fashion to inorganic carbon speciation, we outline a means by which the complex speciation of Fe can be included in global OGCBMs in a reasonably cost-effective manner. We construct an Fe speciation model based on hypothesised relationships between rate constants and environmental variables (temperature, light, oxygen, pH, salinity and assumptions regarding the binding strengths of Fe complexing organic ligands and test hypotheses regarding their distributions. As a result, we find that the global distribution of different Fe species is tightly controlled by spatio-temporal environmental variability and the distribution of Fe binding ligands. Impacts on bioavailable Fe are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding which Fe species are bioavailable and how those species vary in space and time. When forced by representations of future ocean circulation and climate we find large changes to the speciation of Fe governed by pH mediated changes to redox kinetics. We speculate that these changes may exert selective pressure on phytoplankton Fe uptake strategies in the future ocean. In future work, more information on the sources and sinks of ocean Fe ligands, their bioavailability, the cycling of colloidal Fe species and kinetics of Fe-surface coordination reactions would be invaluable. We hope our modeling approach can provide a means by which new observations of Fe speciation can be tested against hypotheses of the processes present in governing the ocean Fe cycle in an

  18. Global Modeling of Internal Tides Within an Eddying Ocean General Circulation Model

    2012-05-31

    paper aooo not violate: any Oisclosur~,;·of trade• secrets or suggestions of outside individuals on::oncams whiCh have· beE !n communicated 1.o...fully three- dimensional global ocean circulation model, we will provide an internal tide capability everywhere, and allow nested models to include

  19. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    Jardine, Sunny L; Siikamäki, Juha V

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO 2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO 2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha −1 ) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha −1 ). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological

  20. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    Jardine, Sunny L.; Siikamäki, Juha V.

    2014-10-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha-1) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha-1). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological predictors, e.g. to

  1. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  2. Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

    Athron, Peter; Balázs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Rogan, Christopher; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin

    2017-12-01

    We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos.

  3. Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

    Athron, Peter [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Balazs, Csaba [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); Bringmann, Torsten; Dal, Lars A.; Krislock, Abram; Raklev, Are [University of Oslo, Department of Physics, Oslo (Norway); Buckley, Andy [University of Glasgow, SUPA, School of Physics and Astronomy, Glasgow (United Kingdom); Chrzaszcz, Marcin [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); H. Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Conrad, Jan; Edsjoe, Joakim; Farmer, Ben [AlbaNova University Centre, Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Stockholm University, Department of Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Cornell, Jonathan M. [McGill University, Department of Physics, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jackson, Paul; White, Martin [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); University of Adelaide, Department of Physics, Adelaide, SA (Australia); Kvellestad, Anders; Savage, Christopher [NORDITA, Stockholm (Sweden); Mahmoudi, Farvah [Univ Lyon, Univ Lyon 1, CNRS, ENS de Lyon, Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon UMR5574, Saint-Genis-Laval (France); Theoretical Physics Department, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Martinez, Gregory D. [University of California, Physics and Astronomy Department, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Putze, Antje [LAPTh, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Rogan, Christopher [Harvard University, Department of Physics, Cambridge, MA (United States); Ruiz de Austri, Roberto [IFIC-UV/CSIC, Instituto de Fisica Corpuscular, Valencia (Spain); Saavedra, Aldo [Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale (Australia); The University of Sydney, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies, Centre for Translational Data Science, School of Physics, Camperdown, NSW (Australia); Scott, Pat [Imperial College London, Department of Physics, Blackett Laboratory, London (United Kingdom); Serra, Nicola [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); Weniger, Christoph [University of Amsterdam, GRAPPA, Institute of Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Collaboration: The GAMBIT Collaboration

    2017-12-15

    We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos. (orig.)

  4. Revisited global drift fluid model for linear devices

    Reiser, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    The problem of energy conserving global drift fluid simulations is revisited. It is found that for the case of cylindrical plasmas in a homogenous magnetic field, a straightforward reformulation is possible avoiding simplifications leading to energetic inconsistencies. The particular new feature is the rigorous treatment of the polarisation drift by a generalization of the vorticity equation. The resulting set of model equations contains previous formulations as limiting cases and is suitable for efficient numerical techniques. Examples of applications on studies of plasma blobs and its impact on plasma target interaction are presented. The numerical studies focus on the appearance of plasma blobs and intermittent transport and its consequences on the release of sputtered target materials in the plasma. Intermittent expulsion of particles in radial direction can be observed and it is found that although the neutrals released from the target show strong fluctuations in their propagation into the plasma column, the overall effect on time averaged profiles is negligible for the conditions considered. In addition, the numerical simulations are utilised to perform an a-posteriori assessment of the magnitude of energetic inconsistencies in previously used simplified models. It is found that certain popular approximations, in particular by the use of simplified vorticity equations, do not significantly affect energetics. However, popular model simplifications with respect to parallel advection are found to provide significant deterioration of the model consistency.

  5. Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

    Schaefer, Martin

    2012-07-01

    The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

  6. The Glacial BuzzSaw, Isostasy, and Global Crustal Models

    Levander, A.; Oncken, O.; Niu, F.

    2015-12-01

    The glacial buzzsaw hypothesis predicts that maximum elevations in orogens at high latitudes are depressed relative to temperate latitudes, as maximum elevation and hypsography of glaciated orogens are functions of the glacial equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and the modern and last glacial maximum (LGM) snowlines. As a consequence crustal thickness, density, or both must change with increasing latitude to maintain isostatic balance. For Airy compensation crustal thickness should decrease toward polar latitudes, whereas for Pratt compensation crustal densities should increase. For similar convergence rates, higher latitude orogens should have higher grade, and presumably higher density rocks in the crustal column due to more efficient glacial erosion. We have examined a number of global and regional crustal models to see if these predictions appear in the models. Crustal thickness is straightforward to examine, crustal density less so. The different crustal models generally agree with one another, but do show some major differences. We used a standard tectonic classification scheme of the crust for data selection. The globally averaged orogens show crustal thicknesses that decrease toward high latitudes, almost reflecting topography, in both the individual crustal models and the models averaged together. The most convincing is the western hemisphere cordillera, where elevations and crustal thicknesses decrease toward the poles, and also toward lower latitudes (the equatorial minimum is at ~12oN). The elevation differences and Airy prediction of crustal thickness changes are in reasonable agreement in the North American Cordillera, but in South America the observed crustal thickness change is larger than the Airy prediction. The Alpine-Himalayan chain shows similar trends, however the strike of the chain makes interpretation ambiguous. We also examined cratons with ice sheets during the last glacial period to see if continental glaciation also thins the crust toward

  7. ACE2 Global Digital Elevation Model : User Analysis

    Smith, R. G.; Berry, P. A. M.; Benveniste, J.

    2013-12-01

    Altimeter Corrected Elevations 2 (ACE2), first released in October 2009, is the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) created by fusing the high accuracy of over 100 million altimeter retracked height estimates, derived primarily from the ERS-1 Geodetic Mission, with the high frequency content available within the near-global Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. This novel ACE2 GDEM is freely available at 3”, 9”, 30” and 5' and has been distributed via the web to over 680 subscribers. This paper presents the results of a detailed analysis of geographical distribution of subscribed users, along with fields of study and potential uses. Investigations have also been performed to determine the most popular spatial resolutions and the impact these have on the scope of data downloaded. The analysis has shown that, even though the majority of users have come from Europe and America, a significant number of website hits have been received from South America, Africa and Asia. Registered users also vary widely, from research institutions and major companies down to individual hobbyists looking at data for single projects.

  8. A model of global citizenship: antecedents and outcomes.

    Reysen, Stephen; Katzarska-Miller, Iva

    2013-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, exposure to global cultures affords individuals opportunities to develop global identities. In two studies, we examine the antecedents and outcomes of identifying with a superordinate identity--global citizen. Global citizenship is defined as awareness, caring, and embracing cultural diversity while promoting social justice and sustainability, coupled with a sense of responsibility to act. Prior theory and research suggest that being aware of one's connection with others in the world (global awareness) and embedded in settings that value global citizenship (normative environment) lead to greater identification with global citizens. Furthermore, theory and research suggest that when global citizen identity is salient, greater identification is related to adherence to the group's content (i.e., prosocial values and behaviors). Results of the present set of studies showed that global awareness (knowledge and interconnectedness with others) and one's normative environment (friends and family support global citizenship) predicted identification with global citizens, and global citizenship predicted prosocial values of intergroup empathy, valuing diversity, social justice, environmental sustainability, intergroup helping, and a felt responsibility to act for the betterment of the world. The relationship between antecedents (normative environment and global awareness) and outcomes (prosocial values) was mediated by identification with global citizens. We discuss the relationship between the present results and other research findings in psychology, the implications of global citizenship for other academic domains, and future avenues of research. Global citizenship highlights the unique effect of taking a global perspective on a multitude of topics relevant to the psychology of everyday actions, environments, and identity.

  9. Global transportation cost modeling for long-range planning

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-02-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to a significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost estimating model, known as the Ten-year Plan Transportation Cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for (a) recovering and processing of the wastes, (b)packaging the wastes for transport, and (c) the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order of magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing and undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements

  10. Global transportation cost modeling for long range planning

    Pope, R.B.; Michelhaugh, R.D.; Singley, P.T.; Lester, P.B.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to perform significant remediation activities of the sites for which it is responsible. To accomplish this, it is preparing a corporate global plan focused on activities over the next decade. Significant in these planned activities is the transportation of the waste arising from the remediation. The costs of this transportation are expected to be large. To support the initial assessment of the plan, a cost-estimating model was developed, peer-reviewed against other available packaging and transportation cost data, and applied to significant number of shipping campaigns of radioactive waste. This cost-estimating model, known as the TEn-year Plan TRAnsportation cost Model (TEPTRAM), can be used to model radioactive material shipments between DOE sites or from DOE sites to non-DOE destinations. The model considers the costs for recovering and processing of the wastes, packaging the wastes for transport, and the carriage of the waste. It also provides a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of labor costs associated with preparing nd undertaking the shipments. At the user's direction, the model can also consider the cost of DOE's interactions with its external stakeholders (e.g., state and local governments and tribal entities) and the cost associated with tracking and communicating with the shipments. By considering all of these sources of costs, it provides a mechanism for assessing and comparing the costs of various waste processing and shipping campaign alternatives to help guide decision-making. Recent analyses of specific planned shipments of transuranic (TRU) waste which consider alternative packaging options are described. These analyses show that options are available for significantly reducing total costs while still satisfying regulatory requirements. (authors)

  11. Modeling Cancer Metastasis using Global, Quantitative and Integrative Network Biology

    Schoof, Erwin; Erler, Janine

    understanding of molecular processes which are fundamental to tumorigenesis. In Article 1, we propose a novel framework for how cancer mutations can be studied by taking into account their effect at the protein network level. In Article 2, we demonstrate how global, quantitative data on phosphorylation dynamics...... can be generated using MS, and how this can be modeled using a computational framework for deciphering kinase-substrate dynamics. This framework is described in depth in Article 3, and covers the design of KinomeXplorer, which allows the prediction of kinases responsible for modulating observed...... phosphorylation dynamics in a given biological sample. In Chapter III, we move into Integrative Network Biology, where, by combining two fundamental technologies (MS & NGS), we can obtain more in-depth insights into the links between cellular phenotype and genotype. Article 4 describes the proof...

  12. Modelling of the Global Geopotential Energy & Stress Field

    Schiffer, Christian; Nielsen, S.B.

    Lateral density and topography variations yield in and important contribution to the lithospheric stress field. The leading quantity is the Geopotential Energy, the integrated lithostatic pressure in a rock column. The horizontal gradient of this quantity is related to horizontal stresses through...... the Equations of equilibrium of stresses. The Geopotential Energy furthermore can be linearly related to the Geoid under assumption of local isostasy. Satellite Geoid measurements contain, however, also non-isostatic deeper mantle responses of long wavelength. Unfortunately, high-pass filtering of the Geoid...... flow in the presence of local isostasy and a steady state geotherm. Subsequently we use a FEM code to solve the Equations of equilibrium of stresses for a three dimensional elastic shell. The modelled results are shown and compared with the global stress field and other publications....

  13. Global stability of a vaccination model with immigration

    Sarah Henshaw

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We study an SVIR model of disease transmission with immigration into all four classes. Vaccinated individuals may only receive partial immunity to the disease, giving a leaky vaccine. The incidence function permits a nonlinear response to the number of infectives, so that mass action and saturating incidence are included as special cases. Because of the immigration of infected individuals, there is no disease-free equilibrium and hence no basic reproduction number. We use the Brouwer Fixed Point Theorem to show that an endemic equilibrium exists and the Poincare-Hopf Theorem to show that it is unique. We show the equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable by using a Lyapunov function.

  14. A Collaboration Service Model for a Global Port Cluster

    Keith K.T. Toh

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The importance of port clusters to a global city may be viewed from a number of perspectives. The development of port clusters and economies of agglomeration and their contribution to a regional economy is underpinned by information and physical infrastructure that facilitates collaboration between business entities within the cluster. The maturity of technologies providing portals, web and middleware services provides an opportunity to push the boundaries of contemporary service reference models and service catalogues to what the authors propose to be "collaboration services". Servicing port clusters, portal engineers of the future must consider collaboration services to benefit a region. Particularly, service orchestration through a "public user portal" must gain better utilisation of publically owned infrastructure, to share knowledge and collaborate among organisations through information systems.

  15. Emergence of Magnetic Flux Generated in a Solar Convective Dynamo. I. The Formation of Sunspots and Active Regions, and The Origin of Their Asymmetries

    Chen, Feng; Rempel, Matthias; Fan, Yuhong, E-mail: chenfeng@ucar.edu [High Altitude Observatory, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307 (United States)

    2017-09-10

    We present a realistic numerical model of sunspot and active region formation based on the emergence of flux bundles generated in a solar convective dynamo. To this end, we use the magnetic and velocity fields in a horizontal layer near the top boundary of the solar convective dynamo simulation to drive realistic radiative-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the uppermost layers of the convection zone. The main results are as follows. (1) The emerging flux bundles rise with the mean speed of convective upflows and fragment into small-scale magnetic elements that further rise to the photosphere, where bipolar sunspot pairs are formed through the coalescence of the small-scale magnetic elements. (2) Filamentary penumbral structures form when the sunspot is still growing through ongoing flux emergence. In contrast to the classical Evershed effect, the inflow seems to prevail over the outflow in a large part of the penumbra. (3) A well-formed sunspot is a mostly monolithic magnetic structure that is anchored in a persistent deep-seated downdraft lane. The flow field outside the spot shows a giant vortex ring that comprises an inflow below 15 Mm depth and an outflow above 15 Mm depth. (4) The sunspots successfully reproduce the fundamental properties of the observed solar active regions, including the more coherent leading spots with a stronger field strength, and the correct tilts of bipolar sunspot pairs. These asymmetries can be linked to the intrinsic asymmetries in the magnetic and flow fields adapted from the convective dynamo simulation.

  16. The development of radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean

    Nakano, M.; Watanabe, H.; Katagiri, H.

    2000-01-01

    The radioactivity diffusion model in global ocean has been developing in order to assess the long-term behavior of radioactive materials for discharge from nuclear facility. The model system consists of two parts. One is to calculate current velocity; and the other is for particle chasing. Both systems are executed by Macintosh personal computer. A lot of techniques to estimate ocean current velocity were investigated in geophysical field. The robust diagnosis model advocated by Sarmiento and Bryan was applied to build the numerical calculation system for getting the current velocity field in global scale. The latitudinal and longitudinal lattices were 2 degrees each and the number of vertical layer was 15. The movement of radioactive materials by current and diffusion were calculated using the particle chasing system. The above-mentioned current velocity field and the initial particle positions at will were read by the system. The movement of a particle was calculated using the interpolated current data step by step. The diffusion of a particle was calculated by random walk method. The model was verified by using the fallout data from atmospheric nuclear test. Yearly and latitudinal fallout data was adopted from UNSCEAR1977. The calculation result was compared with the observation data that includes total amount and vertical profile of Cs-137 and Pu-239,240 in the North Pacific Ocean. The result of the verification was agreed with the following general knowledge. Though the fallout amount between 40N and 50N was the biggest in the world, the amount in the seawater between 40N and 50N was smaller than that in south of 40N because of horizontal transportation, which carried water from north to south. As for vertical profile, Cs-137 could be accurately calculated except the surface layer. However the observation peak of Pu-239,240 existed deeper than the calculation peak. This model could calculate the vertical profile of Cs-137 because most of Cs exists as dissolved

  17. Modelling 1-minute directional observations of the global irradiance.

    Thejll, Peter; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Direct and diffuse irradiances from the sky has been collected at 1-minute intervals for about a year from the experimental station at the Technical University of Denmark for the IEA project "Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting". These data were gathered by pyrheliometers tracking the Sun, as well as with apertured pyranometers gathering 1/8th and 1/16th of the light from the sky in 45 degree azimuthal ranges pointed around the compass. The data are gathered in order to develop detailed models of the potentially available solar energy and its variations at high temporal resolution in order to gain a more detailed understanding of the solar resource. This is important for a better understanding of the sub-grid scale cloud variation that cannot be resolved with climate and weather models. It is also important for optimizing the operation of active solar energy systems such as photovoltaic plants and thermal solar collector arrays, and for passive solar energy and lighting to buildings. We present regression-based modelling of the observed data, and focus, here, on the statistical properties of the model fits. Using models based on the one hand on what is found in the literature and on physical expectations, and on the other hand on purely statistical models, we find solutions that can explain up to 90% of the variance in global radiation. The models leaning on physical insights include terms for the direct solar radiation, a term for the circum-solar radiation, a diffuse term and a term for the horizon brightening/darkening. The purely statistical model is found using data- and formula-validation approaches picking model expressions from a general catalogue of possible formulae. The method allows nesting of expressions, and the results found are dependent on and heavily constrained by the cross-validation carried out on statistically independent testing and training data-sets. Slightly better fits -- in terms of variance explained -- is found using the purely

  18. Transport of nutrients from land to sea: Global modeling approaches and uncertainty analyses

    Beusen, A.H.W.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis presents four examples of global models developed as part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). They describe different components of global biogeochemical cycles of the nutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silicon (Si), with a focus on approaches to

  19. Global emissions and models of photochemically active compounds

    Penner, J.E.; Atherton, C.S.; Graedel, T.E.

    1993-01-01

    Anthropogenic emissions from industrial activity, fossil fuel combustion, and biomass burning are now known to be large enough (relative to natural sources) to perturb the chemistry of vast regions of the troposphere. A goal of the IGAC Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) is to provide authoritative and reliable emissions inventories on a 1 degree x 1 degree grid. When combined with atmospheric photochemical models, these high quality emissions inventories may be used to predict the concentrations of major photochemical products. Comparison of model results with measurements of pertinent species allows us to understand whether there are major shortcomings in our understanding of tropospheric photochemistry, the budgets and transport of trace species, and their effects in the atmosphere. Through this activity, we are building the capability to make confident predictions of the future consequences of anthropogenic emissions. This paper compares IGAC recommended emissions inventories for reactive nitrogen and sulfur dioxide to those that have been in use previously. We also present results from the three-dimensional LLNL atmospheric chemistry model that show how emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides might potentially affect tropospheric ozone and OH concentrations and how emissions of anthropogenic sulfur increase sulfate aerosol loadings

  20. Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea

    1996-01-01

    The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost

  1. A GLOBAL MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY MODEL FOR MAGNETIC CLOUDS. II

    Hidalgo, M. A., E-mail: miguel.hidalgo@uah.es [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Alcala, Apartado 20, E-28871 Alcala de Henares, Madrid (Spain)

    2013-04-01

    In the present work, we extensively used our analytical approach to the global magnetic field topology of magnetic clouds (MCs), introduced in a previous paper, in order to show its potential and to study its physical consistency. The model assumes toroidal topology with a non-uniform (variable maximum radius) cross-section along them. Moreover, it has a non-force-free character and also includes the expansion of its cross-section. As is shown, the model allows us, first, to analyze MC magnetic structures-determining their physical parameters-with a variety of magnetic field shapes, and second, to reconstruct their relative orientation in the interplanetary medium from the observations obtained by several spacecraft. Therefore, multipoint spacecraft observations give the opportunity to infer the structure of this large-scale magnetic flux rope structure in the solar wind. For these tasks, we use data from Helios (A and B), STEREO (A and B), and Advanced Composition Explorer. We show that the proposed analytical model can explain quite well the topology of several MCs in the interplanetary medium and is a good starting point for understanding the physical mechanisms under these phenomena.

  2. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  3. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  4. The Current Status of Kinematic Solar Dynamo Models

    Since January 2016, the Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy has moved to Continuous Article Publishing (CAP) mode. This means that each accepted article is being published immediately online with DOI and article citation ID with starting page number 1. Articles are also visible in Web of Science immediately.

  5. The Current Status of Kinematic Solar Dynamo Models

    tribpo

    well-known butterfly diagram. We believe that the sunspots are produced by the magnetic buoyancy of a strong toroidal magnetic field underneath the Sun's surface—an idea first propounded by Parker (1955a). Hence, the butterfly diagram implies an equatorward migration of the subsurface toroidal field. Although the.

  6. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  7. Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

    Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2017-12-01

    During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

  8. Dynamo action and magnetic buoyancy in convection simulations with vertical shear

    Guerrero, G.; Käpylä, P.

    2011-10-01

    A hypothesis for sunspot formation is the buoyant emergence of magnetic flux tubes created by the strong radial shear at the tachocline. In this scenario, the magnetic field has to exceed a threshold value before it becomes buoyant and emerges through the whole convection zone. In this work we present the results of direct numerical simulations of compressible turbulent convection that include a vertical shear layer. Like the solar tachocline, the shear is located at the interface between convective and stable layers. We follow the evolution of a random seed magnetic field with the aim of study under what conditions it is possible to excite the dynamo instability and whether the dynamo generated magnetic field becomes buoyantly unstable and emerges to the surface as expected in the flux-tube context. We find that shear and convection are able to amplify the initial magnetic field and form large-scale elongated magnetic structures. The magnetic field strength depends on several parameters such as the shear amplitude, the thickness and location of the shear layer, and the magnetic Reynolds number (Rm). Models with deeper and thicker shear layers allow longer storage and are more favorable for generating a mean magnetic field. Models with higher Rm grow faster but saturate at slightly lower levels. Whenever the toroidal magnetic field reaches amplitudes greater a threshold value which is close to the equipartition value, it becomes buoyant and rises into the convection zone where it expands and forms mushroom shape structures. Some events of emergence, i.e., those with the largest amplitudes of the amplified field, are able to reach the very uppermost layers of the domain. These episodes are able to modify the convective pattern forming either broader convection cells or convective eddies elongated in the direction of the field. However, in none of these events the field preserves its initial structure. The back-reaction of the magnetic field on the fluid is also

  9. Global carbon monoxide cycle: Modeling and data analysis

    Arellano, Avelino F., Jr.

    The overarching goal of this dissertation is to develop robust, spatially and temporally resolved CO sources, using global chemical transport modeling, CO measurements from Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory (CMDL) and Measurement of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT), under the framework of Bayesian synthesis inversion. To rigorously quantify the CO sources, I conducted five sets of inverse analyses, with each set investigating specific methodological and scientific issues. The first two inverse analyses separately explored two different CO observations to estimate CO sources by region and sector. Under a range of scenarios relating to inverse methodology and data quality issues, top-down estimates using CMDL CO surface and MOPITT CO remote-sensed measurements show consistent results particularly on a significantly large fossil fuel/biofuel (FFBF) emission in East Asia than present bottom-up estimates. The robustness of this estimate is strongly supported by forward and inverse modeling studies in the region particularly from TRansport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) campaign. The use of high-resolution measurement for the first time in CO inversion also draws attention to a methodology issue that the range of estimates from the scenarios is larger than posterior uncertainties, suggesting that estimate uncertainties may be underestimated. My analyses highlight the utility of top-down approach to provide additional constraints on present global estimates by also pointing to other discrepancies including apparent underestimation of FFBF from Africa/Latin America and biomass burning (BIOM) sources in Africa, southeast Asia and north-Latin America, indicating inconsistencies on our current understanding of fuel use and land-use patterns in these regions. Inverse analysis using MOPITT is extended to determine the extent of MOPITT information and estimate monthly regional CO sources. A major finding, which is consistent with other

  10. TOWARD A GLOBAL EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF PROTOPLANETARY DISKS

    Bai, Xue-Ning, E-mail: xbai@cfa.harvard.edu [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., MS-51, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2016-04-20

    A global picture of the evolution  of protoplanetary disks (PPDs) is key to understanding almost every aspect of planet formation, where standard α-disk models have been continually employed for their simplicity. In the meantime, disk mass loss has been conventionally attributed to photoevaporation, which controls disk dispersal. However, a paradigm shift toward accretion driven by magnetized disk winds has taken place in recent years, thanks to studies of non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic effects in PPDs. I present a framework of global PPD evolution aiming to incorporate these advances, highlighting the role of wind-driven accretion and wind mass loss. Disk evolution is found to be largely dominated by wind-driven processes, and viscous spreading is suppressed. The timescale of disk evolution is controlled primarily by the amount of external magnetic flux threading the disks, and how rapidly the disk loses the flux. Rapid disk dispersal can be achieved if the disk is able to hold most of its magnetic flux during the evolution. In addition, because wind launching requires a sufficient level of ionization at the disk surface (mainly via external far-UV (FUV) radiation), wind kinematics is also affected by the FUV penetration depth and disk geometry. For a typical disk lifetime of a few million years, the disk loses approximately the same amount of mass through the wind as through accretion onto the protostar, and most of the wind mass loss proceeds from the outer disk via a slow wind. Fractional wind mass loss increases with increasing disk lifetime. Significant wind mass loss likely substantially enhances the dust-to-gas mass ratio and promotes planet formation.

  11. TOWARD A GLOBAL EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF PROTOPLANETARY DISKS

    Bai, Xue-Ning

    2016-01-01

    A global picture of the evolution  of protoplanetary disks (PPDs) is key to understanding almost every aspect of planet formation, where standard α-disk models have been continually employed for their simplicity. In the meantime, disk mass loss has been conventionally attributed to photoevaporation, which controls disk dispersal. However, a paradigm shift toward accretion driven by magnetized disk winds has taken place in recent years, thanks to studies of non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic effects in PPDs. I present a framework of global PPD evolution aiming to incorporate these advances, highlighting the role of wind-driven accretion and wind mass loss. Disk evolution is found to be largely dominated by wind-driven processes, and viscous spreading is suppressed. The timescale of disk evolution is controlled primarily by the amount of external magnetic flux threading the disks, and how rapidly the disk loses the flux. Rapid disk dispersal can be achieved if the disk is able to hold most of its magnetic flux during the evolution. In addition, because wind launching requires a sufficient level of ionization at the disk surface (mainly via external far-UV (FUV) radiation), wind kinematics is also affected by the FUV penetration depth and disk geometry. For a typical disk lifetime of a few million years, the disk loses approximately the same amount of mass through the wind as through accretion onto the protostar, and most of the wind mass loss proceeds from the outer disk via a slow wind. Fractional wind mass loss increases with increasing disk lifetime. Significant wind mass loss likely substantially enhances the dust-to-gas mass ratio and promotes planet formation

  12. The ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) -for societal benefit -

    Hato, M.; Tsu, H.; Tachikawa, T.; Abrams, M.; Bailey, B.

    2009-12-01

    The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan and the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the agreement of contribution to GEOSS and a public release was started on June 29th. ASTER GDEM can be downloaded to users from the Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center (ERSDAC) of Japan and NASA’s Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) free of charge. The ASTER instrument was built by METI and launched onboard NASA’s Terra spacecraft in December 1999. It has an along-track stereoscopic capability using its near infrared spectral band (NIR) and its nadir-viewing and backward-viewing telescopes to acquire stereo image data with a base-to-height ratio of 0.6. The ASTER GDEM was produced by applying newly-developed automated algorithm to more than 1.2 million NIR data Produced DEMs of all scene data was stacked after cloud masking and finally partitioned into 1° x 1°unit (called ‘tile’) data for convenience of distribution and handling by users. Before start of public distribution, ERSDAC and USGS/NASA together with many volunteers did validation and characterization by using a preliminary product of the ASTER GDEM. As a result of validation, METI and NASA evaluated that Version 1 of the ASTER GDEM has enough quality to be used as “experimental” or “research grade” data and consequently decided to release it. The ASTER GDEM covering almost all land area of from 83N to 83S on the earth represents as an important contribution to the global earth observation community. We will show our effort of development of ASTER GDEM and its accuracy and character.

  13. A global water supply reservoir yield model with uncertainty analysis

    Kuria, Faith W; Vogel, Richard M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the reliability and uncertainty associated with water supply yields derived from surface water reservoirs is central for planning purposes. Using a global dataset of monthly river discharge, we introduce a generalized model for estimating the mean and variance of water supply yield, Y, expected from a reservoir for a prespecified reliability, R, and storage capacity, S assuming a flow record of length n. The generalized storage–reliability–yield (SRY) relationships reported here have numerous water resource applications ranging from preliminary water supply investigations, to economic and climate change impact assessments. An example indicates how our generalized SRY relationship can be combined with a hydroclimatic model to determine the impact of climate change on surface reservoir water supply yields. We also document that the variability of estimates of water supply yield are invariant to characteristics of the reservoir system, including its storage capacity and reliability. Standardized metrics of the variability of water supply yields are shown to depend only on the sample size of the inflows and the statistical characteristics of the inflow series. (paper)

  14. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Jason G Bragg

    Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying

  15. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2010-03-10

    Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

  16. On self-exciting coupled Faraday disk homopolar dynamos driving series motors

    Moroz, Irene M.; Hide, Raymond; Soward, Andrew M.

    1998-06-01

    We present the results of a preliminary analytical and numerical study of one of the simpler members of a hierarchy of N (where N ≥ 1) coupled self-exciting Faraday disk homopolar dynamos, incorporating motors as additional electrical elements driven by the dynamo-generated current, as proposed by Hide (1997). The hierarchy is a generalisation of a single disk dynamo ( N = 1) with just one electric motor in the system, and crucially, incorporating effects due to mechanical friction in both the disk and the motor, as investigated by Hide et al. (1996). This is describable by a set of three coupled autonomous nonlinear ordinary differential equations, which, due to the presence of the motor, has solutions corresponding to co-existing periodic states of increasing complexity, as well as to chaotic dynamics. We consider the case of two such homopolar dynamos ( N = 2) with generally dissimilar characteristics but coupled together magnetically, with the aim of determining the extent to which this coupled system differs in its behaviour from the single disk dynamo with a series motor (Hide et al. 1996). In the case when the units are identical, the behaviour of the double dynamo system (after initial transients have decayed away) is identical to that of the single dynamo system, with solutions (including “synchronised chaos”) locked in both amplitude and phase. When there is no motor in the system and the coefficient of mechanical friction in the disks is small, these transients resemble the well-known ‘non-synchronous’, but structurally unstable Rikitake solution.

  17. The global mean sea surface model WHU2013

    Taoyong Jin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The mean sea surface (MSS model is an important reference for the study of charting datum and sea level change. A global MSS model named WHU2013, with 2′ × 2′ spatial resolution between 80°S and 84°N, is established in this paper by combining nearly 20 years of multi-satellite altimetric data that include Topex/Poseidon (T/P, Jason-1, Jason-2, ERS-2, ENVISAT and GFO Exact Repeat Mission (ERM data, ERS-1/168, Jason-1/C geodetic mission data and Cryosat-2 low resolution mode (LRM data. All the ERM data are adjusted by the collinear method to achieve the mean along-track sea surface height (SSH, and the combined dataset of T/P, Jason-1 and Jason-2 from 1993 to 2012 after collinear adjustment is used as the reference data. The sea level variations in the non-ERM data (geodetic mission data and LRM data are mainly investigated, and a combined method is proposed to correct the sea level variations between 66°S and 66°N by along-track sea level variation time series and beyond 66°S or 66°N by seasonal sea level variations. In the crossover adjustment between multi-altimetric data, a stepwise method is used to solve the problem of inconsistency in the reference data between the high and low latitude regions. The proposed model is compared with the CNES-CLS2011 and DTU13 MSS models, and the standard derivation (STD of the differences between the models is about 5 cm between 80°S and 84°N, less than 3 cm between 66°S and 66°N, and less than 4 cm in the China Sea and its adjacent sea. Furthermore, the three models exhibit a good agreement in the SSH differences and the along-track gradient of SSH following comparisons with satellite altimetry data.

  18. Global modelling of magnetic island control in tokamaks

    Fevrier, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    Magneto-Hydro-Dynamic (MHD) instabilities are susceptible to develop within a tokamak plasma. These instabilities manifest themselves as magnetic islands which reduce the plasma confinement. The islands can however be controlled by driving current inside them. In this thesis, we consider the modeling of the magnetic islands and their control using first principle approaches, which rely on a global MHD description of the plasma. We have detailed the inclusion a RF-driven current like source term in an MHD code, which requires special care to be given to the modeling of the current density evolution. The implementation has been benchmarked against the asymptotic models, allowing us to retrieve the influence of parameters such as deposition width or misalignment with respect to the island width and position. Beyond these aspects, we have evidenced new effects, linked to the 3D nature of the current deposition. We have observed a flip instability in which an island, reduced by the ECCD, brutally inverse its phase so that its X-Point faces the current deposition, allowing the mode the grow further. We then moved on to the topic of the best suitable control strategies for the control of the island. We have implemented in XTOR a control system that mimics the experimental ones and adapt the current deposition in function of a preset strategy. Nonlinear MHD simulations have been carried out using different control schemes, allowing us to quantify the gain to expect from each of these methods depending on the characteristics of the current deposition. (author) [fr

  19. [The Global Model of Public Mental Health and Recovery Mentors].

    Pelletier, Jean-François; Auclair, Émilie

    Objectives The aim of this paper is to revisit the Global Model of Public Mental Health (GMPMH) in light of the 4th Civic Forum. Recovery mentors of the University of Recovery chaired this public event, which was held in East-end Montreal, Canada, in 2016. The University of Recovery is a concept of co-learning among its members.Methods Being able to refer to international conventions and human rights standards is a key component of a genuine global approach that is supportive of individuals and communities in their quest for recovery and full citizenship. The GMPMH was inspired by the ecological approach in public health and health promotion programs, while adding to that approach the recovery mentors, as agents of mental health policies and legislation transformation. The GMPMH integrates recovery- and citizenship-oriented practices through the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion of the World Health Organization. Indeed, here the GMPMH is said to be global in that the supranational and individual levels reinforce each other, taking turns with a) a set of legal rules and international conventions on human rights, including those of disabled persons, and b) the active involvement and agency of recovery mentors who can evoke these rules and conventions as part of a plea for the recognition of their personal and collective capacity for change; they acted as tracers of recovery trajectories during the Civic Forum. The GMPMH was first published in 2009, and revisited in 2013. While this latter revision was based on the 3rd Civic Forum, in this paper we use the same approach to revisit the GMPMH as underpinned by the findings and recommendations of the 4th Civic Forum, which discussed questions related to work and employment.Results Updating the GMPMH in light of the Civic Forum underlines the need for a more inclusive type of governance regarding policy and systems transformation. Local communities and persons in recovery can reach each other to promote change and

  20. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  1. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Xiao-meng Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  2. Large-scale flows, sheet plumes and strong magnetic fields in a rapidly rotating spherical dynamo

    Takahashi, F.

    2011-12-01

    Mechanisms of magnetic field intensification by flows of an electrically conducting fluid in a rapidly rotating spherical shell is investigated. Bearing dynamos of the Eartn and planets in mind, the Ekman number is set at 10-5. A strong dipolar solution with magnetic energy 55 times larger than the kinetic energy of thermal convection is obtained. In a regime of small viscosity and inertia with the strong magnetic field, convection structure consists of a few large-scale retrograde flows in the azimuthal direction and sporadic thin sheet-like plumes. The magnetic field is amplified through stretching of magnetic lines, which occurs typically through three types of flow: the retrograde azimuthal flow near the outer boundary, the downwelling flow of the sheet plume, and the prograde azimuthal flow near the rim of the tangent cylinder induced by the downwelling flow. It is found that either structure of current loops or current sheets is accompanied in each flow structure. Current loops emerge as a result of stretching the magnetic lines along the magnetic field, wheres the current sheets are formed to counterbalance the Coriolis force. Convection structure and processes of magnetic field generation found in the present model are distinct from those in models at larger/smaller Ekman number.

  3. Plasma Reactors and Plasma Thrusters Modeling by Ar Complete Global Models

    Chloe Berenguer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A complete global model for argon was developed and adapted to plasma reactor and plasma thruster modeling. It takes into consideration ground level and excited Ar and Ar+ species and the reactor and thruster form factors. The electronic temperature, the species densities, and the ionization percentage, depending mainly on the pressure and the absorbed power, have been obtained and commented for various physical conditions.

  4. The extrapolar SWIFT-model: Fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    Kreyling, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this PhD-thesis was the development of a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for an interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer. The SWIFT-model is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs). For computing-time reasons GCMs often do not employ full stratospheric chemistry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This method does not consider the interaction between atmospheric dynamics and the ozone layer and can neither resolve the inter-annu...

  5. STELLAR EVIDENCE THAT THE SOLAR DYNAMO MAY BE IN TRANSITION

    Metcalfe, Travis S.; Egeland, Ricky; Van Saders, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Precise photometry from the Kepler space telescope allows not only the measurement of rotation in solar-type field stars, but also the determination of reliable masses and ages from asteroseismology. These critical data have recently provided the first opportunity to calibrate rotation–age relations for stars older than the Sun. The evolutionary picture that emerges is surprising: beyond middle-age the efficiency of magnetic braking is dramatically reduced, implying a fundamental change in angular momentum loss beyond a critical Rossby number (Ro ∼ 2). We compile published chromospheric activity measurements for the sample of Kepler asteroseismic targets that were used to establish the new rotation–age relations. We use these data along with a sample of well-characterized solar analogs from the Mount Wilson HK survey to develop a qualitative scenario connecting the evolution of chromospheric activity to a fundamental shift in the character of differential rotation. We conclude that the Sun may be in a transitional evolutionary phase, and that its magnetic cycle might represent a special case of stellar dynamo theory.

  6. STELLAR EVIDENCE THAT THE SOLAR DYNAMO MAY BE IN TRANSITION

    Metcalfe, Travis S. [Space Science Institute, 4750 Walnut Street, Suite 205, Boulder CO 80301 (United States); Egeland, Ricky [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder CO 80307 (United States); Van Saders, Jennifer [Carnegie Observatories, 813 Santa Barbara Street, Pasadena CA 91101 (United States)

    2016-07-20

    Precise photometry from the Kepler space telescope allows not only the measurement of rotation in solar-type field stars, but also the determination of reliable masses and ages from asteroseismology. These critical data have recently provided the first opportunity to calibrate rotation–age relations for stars older than the Sun. The evolutionary picture that emerges is surprising: beyond middle-age the efficiency of magnetic braking is dramatically reduced, implying a fundamental change in angular momentum loss beyond a critical Rossby number (Ro ∼ 2). We compile published chromospheric activity measurements for the sample of Kepler asteroseismic targets that were used to establish the new rotation–age relations. We use these data along with a sample of well-characterized solar analogs from the Mount Wilson HK survey to develop a qualitative scenario connecting the evolution of chromospheric activity to a fundamental shift in the character of differential rotation. We conclude that the Sun may be in a transitional evolutionary phase, and that its magnetic cycle might represent a special case of stellar dynamo theory.

  7. Evolution of pulsarmagnetism by virtue of a Faraday dynamo mechanism

    Heintzmann, H.; Novello, M.

    1983-01-01

    The evidence that radio-pulsars are slowed-down and Roentgen - pulsars accelerated predominantly by magnetic torques is now very strong. Angular momentum is transferred away from the neutron star to the velocity-of-light cylinder or from the Alfven - cylinder down to the neutron star by means of a magnetic spring the physical origin of which is an appropriate current flowing along the magnetic field lines. As this current must be closed at the neutron star's surface and no Hall-Field can be built-up a Faraday dynamo mechanism is set up. It is pointed out that this mechanism could switch -off a radio pulsar or turn-on a Roentgen pulsar. Many disconcerting pulsar observations could thus be explained, if radio pulsars can be reactivated in the galactic plane by means of accretion of matter in dense clouds and if Roentgenpulsars must first create a sufficiently strong magnetic field to function as a regularly pulsed emitter. (Author) [pt

  8. NONLINEAR DYNAMO IN A ROTATING ELECTRICALLY CONDUCTING FLUID

    M. I. Kopp

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available We found a new large-scale instability, which arises in the rotating conductive fluid with small-scale turbulence. Turbulence is generated by small-scale external force with a low Reynolds number. The theory is built simply by the method of multiscale asymptotic expansions. Nonlinear equations for vortex and magnetic perturbations obtained in the third order for small Reynolds number. It is shown that the combined effects of the Coriolis force and the small external forces in a rotating conducting fluid possible large-scale instability. The large-scale increments of the instability, correspond to generation as the vortex and magnetic disturbances. This type of instability is classified as hydrodynamic and MHD alpha-effect. We studied the stationary regimes of nonlinear equations of magneto-vortex dynamo. In the limit of weakly conducting fluid found stationary solutions in the form of helical kinks. In the limit of high conductivity fluid was obtained stationary solutions in the form of nonlinear periodic waves and kinks.

  9. Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study.

    Alkire, Blake C; Shrime, Mark G; Dare, Anna J; Vincent, Jeffrey R; Meara, John G

    2015-04-27

    The surgical burden of disease is substantial, but little is known about the associated economic consequences. We estimate the global macroeconomic impact of the surgical burden of disease due to injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal and neonatal disorders from two distinct economic perspectives. We obtained mortality rate estimates for each disease for the years 2000 and 2010 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, and estimates of the proportion of the burden of the selected diseases that is surgical from a paper by Shrime and colleagues. We first used the value of lost output (VLO) approach, based on the WHO's Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-Health (EPIC) model, to project annual market economy losses due to these surgical diseases during 2015-30. EPIC attempts to model how disease affects a country's projected labour force and capital stock, which in turn are related to losses in economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). We then used the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which is conceptually based on the value of a statistical life and is inclusive of non-market losses, to estimate the present value of long-run welfare losses resulting from mortality and short-run welfare losses resulting from morbidity incurred during 2010. Sensitivity analyses were performed for both approaches. During 2015-30, the VLO approach projected that surgical conditions would result in losses of 1·25% of potential GDP, or $20·7 trillion (2010 US$, purchasing power parity) in the 128 countries with data available. When expressed as a proportion of potential GDP, annual GDP losses were greatest in low-income and middle-income countries, with up to a 2·5% loss in output by 2030. When total welfare losses are assessed (VLW), the present value of economic losses is estimated to be equivalent to 17% of 2010 GDP, or $14·5 trillion in the 175 countries assessed with this approach. Neoplasm and injury account

  10. Global identifiability of linear compartmental models--a computer algebra algorithm.

    Audoly, S; D'Angiò, L; Saccomani, M P; Cobelli, C

    1998-01-01

    A priori global identifiability deals with the uniqueness of the solution for the unknown parameters of a model and is, thus, a prerequisite for parameter estimation of biological dynamic models. Global identifiability is however difficult to test, since it requires solving a system of algebraic nonlinear equations which increases both in nonlinearity degree and number of terms and unknowns with increasing model order. In this paper, a computer algebra tool, GLOBI (GLOBal Identifiability) is presented, which combines the topological transfer function method with the Buchberger algorithm, to test global identifiability of linear compartmental models. GLOBI allows for the automatic testing of a priori global identifiability of general structure compartmental models from general multi input-multi output experiments. Examples of usage of GLOBI to analyze a priori global identifiability of some complex biological compartmental models are provided.

  11. A Global Model for Circumgalactic and Cluster-core Precipitation

    Voit, G. Mark; Meece, Greg; Li, Yuan; O'Shea, Brian W.; Bryan, Greg L.; Donahue, Megan

    2017-08-01

    We provide an analytic framework for interpreting observations of multiphase circumgalactic gas that is heavily informed by recent numerical simulations of thermal instability and precipitation in cool-core galaxy clusters. We start by considering the local conditions required for the formation of multiphase gas via two different modes: (1) uplift of ambient gas by galactic outflows, and (2) condensation in a stratified stationary medium in which thermal balance is explicitly maintained. Analytic exploration of these two modes provides insights into the relationships between the local ratio of the cooling and freefall timescales (I.e., {t}{cool}/{t}{ff}), the large-scale gradient of specific entropy, and the development of precipitation and multiphase media in circumgalactic gas. We then use these analytic findings to interpret recent simulations of circumgalactic gas in which global thermal balance is maintained. We show that long-lasting configurations of gas with 5≲ \\min ({t}{cool}/{t}{ff})≲ 20 and radial entropy profiles similar to observations of cool cores in galaxy clusters are a natural outcome of precipitation-regulated feedback. We conclude with some observational predictions that follow from these models. This work focuses primarily on precipitation and AGN feedback in galaxy-cluster cores, because that is where the observations of multiphase gas around galaxies are most complete. However, many of the physical principles that govern condensation in those environments apply to circumgalactic gas around galaxies of all masses.

  12. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  13. Improving InSAR geodesy using Global Atmospheric Models

    Jolivet, Romain; Agram, Piyush Shanker; Lin, Nina Y.; Simons, Mark; Doin, Marie-Pierre; Peltzer, Gilles; Li, Zhenghong

    2014-03-01

    Spatial and temporal variations of pressure, temperature, and water vapor content in the atmosphere introduce significant confounding delays in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations of ground deformation and bias estimates of regional strain rates. Producing robust estimates of tropospheric delays remains one of the key challenges in increasing the accuracy of ground deformation measurements using InSAR. Recent studies revealed the efficiency of global atmospheric reanalysis to mitigate the impact of tropospheric delays, motivating further exploration of their potential. Here we explore the effectiveness of these models in several geographic and tectonic settings on both single interferograms and time series analysis products. Both hydrostatic and wet contributions to the phase delay are important to account for. We validate these path delay corrections by comparing with estimates of vertically integrated atmospheric water vapor content derived from the passive multispectral imager Medium-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, onboard the Envisat satellite. Generally, the performance of the prediction depends on the vigor of atmospheric turbulence. We discuss (1) how separating atmospheric and orbital contributions allows one to better measure long-wavelength deformation and (2) how atmospheric delays affect measurements of surface deformation following earthquakes, and (3) how such a method allows us to reduce biases in multiyear strain rate estimates by reducing the influence of unevenly sampled seasonal oscillations of the tropospheric delay.

  14. Methane airborne measurements and comparison to global models during BARCA

    Beck, Veronika; Chen, Huilin; Gerbig, Christoph; Bergamaschi, Peter; Bruhwiler, Lori; Houweling, Sander; Röckmann, Thomas; Kolle, Olaf; Steinbach, Julia; Koch, Thomas; Sapart, Célia J.; van der Veen, Carina; Frankenberg, Christian; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Artaxo, Paulo; Longo, Karla M.; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2012-08-01

    Tropical regions, especially the Amazon region, account for large emissions of methane (CH4). Here, we present CH4 observations from two airborne campaigns conducted within the BARCA (Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia) project in the Amazon basin in November 2008 (end of the dry season) and May 2009 (end of the wet season). We performed continuous measurements of CH4 onboard an aircraft for the first time in the Amazon region, covering the whole Amazon basin with over 150 vertical profiles between altitudes of 500 m and 4000 m. The observations support the finding of previous ground-based, airborne, and satellite measurements that the Amazon basin is a large source of atmospheric CH4. Isotope analysis verified that the majority of emissions can be attributed to CH4 emissions from wetlands, while urban CH4 emissions could be also traced back to biogenic origin. A comparison of five TM5 based global CH4 inversions with the observations clearly indicates that the inversions using SCIAMACHY observations represent the BARCA observations best. The calculated CH4 flux estimate obtained from the mismatch between observations and TM5-modeled CH4 fields ranges from 36 to 43 mg m-2 d-1 for the Amazon lowland region.

  15. Matérn-based nonstationary cross-covariance models for global processes

    Jun, Mikyoung

    2014-01-01

    -covariance models, based on the Matérn covariance