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Sample records for global dynamic routing

  1. Global forward-predicting dynamic routing for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free network

    Xie Wei-Hao; Zhou Bin; Liu En-Xiao; Lu Wei-Dang; Zhou Ting

    2015-01-01

    Many real communication networks, such as oceanic monitoring network and land environment observation network, can be described as space stereo multi-layer structure, and the traffic in these networks is concurrent. Understanding how traffic dynamics depend on these real communication networks and finding an effective routing strategy that can fit the circumstance of traffic concurrency and enhance the network performance are necessary. In this light, we propose a traffic model for space stereo multi-layer complex network and introduce two kinds of global forward-predicting dynamic routing strategies, global forward-predicting hybrid minimum queue (HMQ) routing strategy and global forward-predicting hybrid minimum degree and queue (HMDQ) routing strategy, for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. By applying forward-predicting strategy, the proposed routing strategies achieve better performances in traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. Compared with the efficient routing strategy and global dynamic routing strategy, HMDQ and HMQ routing strategies can optimize the traffic distribution, alleviate the number of congested packets effectively and reach much higher network capacity. (paper)

  2. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  3. Classification of Dynamic Vehicle Routing Systems

    Larsen, Allan; Madsen, Oli B.G.; Solomon, Marius M.

    2007-01-01

    This chapter discusses important characteristics seen within dynamic vehicle routing problems. We discuss the differences between the traditional static vehicle routing problems and its dynamic counterparts. We give an in-depth introduction to the degree of dynamism measure which can be used to c...

  4. Dynamic Escape Routes for Naval Ships

    Villalonga, Francisco J

    2005-01-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of optimal evacuation of a naval ship. We propose the use of a dynamic escape-route system which employs a signaling system to adapt the emergency egress process to the instigating contingency...

  5. Dynamic Routing during Disaster Events

    Fitrianie, S.; Rothkrantz, L.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Innovations in mobile technology allow people to request route information on their smartphone to reach safe areas during emergency and disaster evacuations. In return, the affected people in the field can send their observation reports, e.g. using a dedicated icon-based disaster language. However,

  6. Phone Routing using the Dynamic Memory Model

    Bendtsen, Claus Nicolaj; Krink, Thiemo

    2002-01-01

    In earlier studies a genetic algorithm (GA) extended with the dynamic memory model has shown remarkable performance on real-world-like problems. In this paper we experiment with routing in communication networks and show that the dynamic memory GA performs remarkable well compared to ant colony...

  7. A Monarch Butterfly Optimization for the Dynamic Vehicle Routing Problem

    Shifeng Chen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic vehicle routing problem (DVRP is a variant of the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP in which customers appear dynamically. The objective is to determine a set of routes that minimizes the total travel distance. In this paper, we propose a monarch butterfly optimization (MBO algorithm to solve DVRPs, utilizing a greedy strategy. Both migration operation and the butterfly adjusting operator only accept the offspring of butterfly individuals that have better fitness than their parents. To improve performance, a later perturbation procedure is implemented, to maintain a balance between global diversification and local intensification. The computational results indicate that the proposed technique outperforms the existing approaches in the literature for average performance by at least 9.38%. In addition, 12 new best solutions were found. This shows that this proposed technique consistently produces high-quality solutions and outperforms other published heuristics for the DVRP.

  8. Automated Flight Routing Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming

    Ng, Hok K.; Morando, Alex; Grabbe, Shon

    2010-01-01

    Airspace capacity reduction due to convective weather impedes air traffic flows and causes traffic congestion. This study presents an algorithm that reroutes flights in the presence of winds, enroute convective weather, and congested airspace based on stochastic dynamic programming. A stochastic disturbance model incorporates into the reroute design process the capacity uncertainty. A trajectory-based airspace demand model is employed for calculating current and future airspace demand. The optimal routes minimize the total expected traveling time, weather incursion, and induced congestion costs. They are compared to weather-avoidance routes calculated using deterministic dynamic programming. The stochastic reroutes have smaller deviation probability than the deterministic counterpart when both reroutes have similar total flight distance. The stochastic rerouting algorithm takes into account all convective weather fields with all severity levels while the deterministic algorithm only accounts for convective weather systems exceeding a specified level of severity. When the stochastic reroutes are compared to the actual flight routes, they have similar total flight time, and both have about 1% of travel time crossing congested enroute sectors on average. The actual flight routes induce slightly less traffic congestion than the stochastic reroutes but intercept more severe convective weather.

  9. A dynamic routing strategy with limited buffer on scale-free network

    Wang, Yufei; Liu, Feng

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we propose an integrated routing strategy based on global static topology information and local dynamic data packet queue lengths to improve the transmission efficiency of scale-free networks. The proposed routing strategy is a combination of a global static routing strategy (based on the shortest path algorithm) and local dynamic queue length management, in which, instead of using an infinite buffer, the queue length of each node i in the proposed routing strategy is limited by a critical queue length Qic. When the network traffic is lower and the queue length of each node i is shorter than its critical queue length Qic, it forwards packets according to the global routing table. With increasing network traffic, when the buffers of the nodes with higher degree are full, they do not receive packets due to their limited buffers and the packets have to be delivered to the nodes with lower degree. The global static routing strategy can shorten the transmission time that it takes a packet to reach its destination, and the local limited queue length can balance the network traffic. The optimal critical queue lengths of nodes have been analysed. Simulation results show that the proposed routing strategy can get better performance than that of the global static strategy based on topology, and almost the same performance as that of the global dynamic routing strategy with less complexity.

  10. Dynamic Routing of Short Transfer Baggage

    Clausen, Tommy; Pisinger, David

    of dispatch. Computational results are presented for real-life passenger data with stochastic bag arrival times and travel times. The results indicate that the algorithm is able to dispatch the baggage considerably better than the manual delivery plans reported in the case study, and due to its fast running...... that arrive continuously during the day. We present an IP model of the problem and describe the problem as a case study from a real life setting. We present a weighted greedy algorithm for dispatching vehicles that works in an dynamic context, meaning that it only considers bags available at the time......We consider a variant of the Vehicle Routing Problem that arises in airports when transporting baggage for passengers with connecting flights. Each bag can be delivered in two locations with disjunctive time windows. The task is to define multiple trips for the vehicles in order to deliver bags...

  11. Method and System for Dynamic Automated Corrections to Weather Avoidance Routes for Aircraft in En Route Airspace

    McNally, B. David (Inventor); Erzberger, Heinz (Inventor); Sheth, Kapil (Inventor)

    2015-01-01

    A dynamic weather route system automatically analyzes routes for in-flight aircraft flying in convective weather regions and attempts to find more time and fuel efficient reroutes around current and predicted weather cells. The dynamic weather route system continuously analyzes all flights and provides reroute advisories that are dynamically updated in real time while the aircraft are in flight. The dynamic weather route system includes a graphical user interface that allows users to visualize, evaluate, modify if necessary, and implement proposed reroutes.

  12. Vehicle routing with dynamic travel times : a queueing approach

    Woensel, van T.; Kerbache, L.; Peremans, H.; Vandaele, N.J.

    2008-01-01

    Transportation is an important component of supply chain competitiveness since it plays a major role in the inbound, inter-facility, and outbound logistics. In this context, assigning and scheduling vehicle routes is a crucial management problem. In this paper, a vehicle routing problem with dynamic

  13. Characterization of Static/Dynamic Topological Routing For Grid Networks

    Gutierrez Lopez, Jose Manuel; Cuevas, Ruben; Riaz, M. Tahir

    2009-01-01

    Grid or 2D Mesh structures are becoming one of the most attractive network topologies to study. They can be used in many different fields raging from future broadband networks to multiprocessors structures. In addition, the high requirements of future services and applications demand more flexible...... and adaptive networks. Topological routing in grid networks is a simple and efficient alternative to traditional routing techniques, e.g. routing tables, and the paper extends this kind of routing providing a "Dynamic" attribute. This new property attempts to improve the overall network performance for future...

  14. Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics

    Luo, Albert

    2012-01-01

    Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics collects chapters on recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems with a particular emphasis on cell mapping methods developed by Professor C.S. Hsu of the University of California, Berkeley. This collection of contributions prepared by a diverse group of internationally recognized researchers is intended to stimulate interests in global analysis of complex and high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems, whose global properties are largely unexplored at this time. This book also: Presents recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems Provides in-depth considerations and extensions of cell mapping methods Adopts an inclusive style accessible to non-specialists and graduate students Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics is an ideal reference for the community of nonlinear dynamics in different disciplines including engineering, applied mathematics, meteorology, life science, computational science, and medicine.  

  15. Benefits Analysis of Multi-Center Dynamic Weather Routes

    Sheth, Kapil; McNally, David; Morando, Alexander; Clymer, Alexis; Lock, Jennifer; Petersen, Julien

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic weather routes are flight plan corrections that can provide airborne flights more than user-specified minutes of flying-time savings, compared to their current flight plan. These routes are computed from the aircraft's current location to a flight plan fix downstream (within a predefined limit region), while avoiding forecasted convective weather regions. The Dynamic Weather Routes automation has been continuously running with live air traffic data for a field evaluation at the American Airlines Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, TX since July 31, 2012, where flights within the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center are evaluated for time savings. This paper extends the methodology to all Centers in United States and presents benefits analysis of Dynamic Weather Routes automation, if it was implemented in multiple airspace Centers individually and concurrently. The current computation of dynamic weather routes requires a limit rectangle so that a downstream capture fix can be selected, preventing very large route changes spanning several Centers. In this paper, first, a method of computing a limit polygon (as opposed to a rectangle used for Fort Worth Center) is described for each of the 20 Centers in the National Airspace System. The Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool, a nationwide simulation and analysis tool, is used for this purpose. After a comparison of results with the Center-based Dynamic Weather Routes automation in Fort Worth Center, results are presented for 11 Centers in the contiguous United States. These Centers are generally most impacted by convective weather. A breakdown of individual Center and airline savings is presented and the results indicate an overall average savings of about 10 minutes of flying time are obtained per flight.

  16. Financial fragility and global dynamics

    Dieci, Roberto; Sordi, Serena; Vercelli, Alessandro

    2006-01-01

    This paper deals with a simple model of financial fluctuations, where a crucial role is played by the dynamic interaction between aggregate current and intertemporal financial ratios. The model results in a 4D discrete-time dynamical system-capable of generating complex dynamics-which is analyzed by means of both analytical tools, such as local stability analysis and bifurcation theory, and numerical simulations. The behavior of the model is studied for different parameter regimes. We show that its dynamic behavior is very sensitive to the parameters that represent (1) the speed of adjustment of the desired current financial ratio towards a safe level of the intertemporal one and (2) the intensity with which aggregate current financial decisions affect future financial constraints. In particular, different parameter regimes are identified, giving rise to two different 'routes' to complexity, one leading to chaotic dynamics, the other to a coexistence of attractors and path-dependence

  17. Congested Link Inference Algorithms in Dynamic Routing IP Network

    Yu Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance descending of current congested link inference algorithms is obviously in dynamic routing IP network, such as the most classical algorithm CLINK. To overcome this problem, based on the assumptions of Markov property and time homogeneity, we build a kind of Variable Structure Discrete Dynamic Bayesian (VSDDB network simplified model of dynamic routing IP network. Under the simplified VSDDB model, based on the Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (BMAP and Rest Bayesian Network Model (RBNM, we proposed an Improved CLINK (ICLINK algorithm. Considering the concurrent phenomenon of multiple link congestion usually happens, we also proposed algorithm CLILRS (Congested Link Inference algorithm based on Lagrangian Relaxation Subgradient to infer the set of congested links. We validated our results by the experiments of analogy, simulation, and actual Internet.

  18. Dynamic Global Currency Hedging

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Varneskov, Rasmus T.

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a model for discrete-time hedging based on continuous-time movements in portfolio and foreign currency exchange rate returns. In particular, the vector of optimal currency exposures is shown to be given by the negative realized regression coefficients from a one......-period conditional expectation of the intra-period quadratic covariation matrix for portfolio and foreign exchange rate returns. These are labelled the realized currency betas. The model, hence, facilitates dynamic hedging strategies that depend exclusively on the dynamic evolution of the ex-post quadratic...... covariation matrix. These hedging strategies are suggested implemented using modern, yet simple, non-parametric techniques to accurately measure and dynamically model historical quadratic covariation matrices. The empirical results from an extensive hedging exercise for equity investments illustrate...

  19. Dynamic Vehicle Routing Using an Improved Variable Neighborhood Search Algorithm

    Yingcheng Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to effectively solve the dynamic vehicle routing problem with time windows, the mathematical model is established and an improved variable neighborhood search algorithm is proposed. In the algorithm, allocation customers and planning routes for the initial solution are completed by the clustering method. Hybrid operators of insert and exchange are used to achieve the shaking process, the later optimization process is presented to improve the solution space, and the best-improvement strategy is adopted, which make the algorithm can achieve a better balance in the solution quality and running time. The idea of simulated annealing is introduced to take control of the acceptance of new solutions, and the influences of arrival time, distribution of geographical location, and time window range on route selection are analyzed. In the experiment, the proposed algorithm is applied to solve the different sizes' problems of DVRP. Comparing to other algorithms on the results shows that the algorithm is effective and feasible.

  20. The Dynamic Multi-Period Vehicle Routing Problem

    Wen, Min; Cordeau, Jean-Francois; Laporte, Gilbert

    This paper considers the Dynamic Multi-Period Vehicle Routing Problem which deals with the distribution of orders from a depot to a set of customers over a multi-period time horizon. Customer orders and their feasible service periods are dynamically revealed over time. The objectives are to minim......This paper considers the Dynamic Multi-Period Vehicle Routing Problem which deals with the distribution of orders from a depot to a set of customers over a multi-period time horizon. Customer orders and their feasible service periods are dynamically revealed over time. The objectives...... are to minimize total travel costs and customer waiting, and to balance the daily workload over the planning horizon. This problem originates from a large distributor operating in Sweden. It is modeled as a mixed integer linear program, and solved by means of a three-phase heuristic that works over a rolling...... planning horizon. The multi-objective aspect of the problem is handled through a scalar technique approach. Computational results show that our solutions improve upon those of the Swedish distributor....

  1. Dynamic route guidance strategy in a two-route pedestrian-vehicle mixed traffic flow system

    Liu, Mianfang; Xiong, Shengwu; Li, Bixiang

    2016-05-01

    With the rapid development of transportation, traffic questions have become the major issue for social, economic and environmental aspects. Especially, during serious emergencies, it is very important to alleviate road traffic congestion and improve the efficiency of evacuation to reduce casualties, and addressing these problems has been a major task for the agencies responsible in recent decades. Advanced road guidance strategies have been developed for homogeneous traffic flows, or to reduce traffic congestion and enhance the road capacity in a symmetric two-route scenario. However, feedback strategies have rarely been considered for pedestrian-vehicle mixed traffic flows with variable velocities and sizes in an asymmetric multi-route traffic system, which is a common phenomenon in many developing countries. In this study, we propose a weighted road occupancy feedback strategy (WROFS) for pedestrian-vehicle mixed traffic flows, which considers the system equilibrium to ease traffic congestion. In order to more realistic simulating the behavior of mixed traffic objects, the paper adopted a refined and dynamic cellular automaton model (RDPV_CA model) as the update mechanism for pedestrian-vehicle mixed traffic flow. Moreover, a bounded rational threshold control was introduced into the feedback strategy to avoid some negative effect of delayed information and reduce. Based on comparisons with the two previously proposed strategies, the simulation results obtained in a pedestrian-vehicle traffic flow scenario demonstrated that the proposed strategy with a bounded rational threshold was more effective and system equilibrium, system stability were reached.

  2. Energy-Aware Routing Optimization in Dynamic GMPLS Controlled Optical Networks

    Wang, Jiayuan; Ricciardi, Sergio; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, routing optimizations based on energy sources are proposed in dynamic GMPLS controlled optical networks. The influences of re-routing and load balancing factors on the algorithm are evaluated, with a focus on different re-routing thresholds. Results from dynamic network simulations...

  3. Dynamic vehicle routing problems: Three decades and counting

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Wen, Min; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2016-01-01

    of DVRP papers according to 11 criteria. These are (1) type of problem, (2) logistical context, (3) transportation mode, (4) objective function, (5) fleet size, (6) time constraints, (7) vehicle capacity constraints, (8) the ability to reject customers, (9) the natureof the dynamic element, (10......Since the late 70s, much research activity has taken place on the class of dynamic vehicle routing problems (DVRP), with the time period after year 2000 witnessing areal explosion in related papers. Our paper sheds more light into work in this area over more than 3 decades by developing a taxonomy......) the nature of the stochasticity (if any), and (11) the solution method. We comment on technological vis-à-vis methodological advances for this class of problems and suggest directions for further research. The latter include alternative objective functions, vehicle speed as decision variable, more explicit...

  4. FPGA Dynamic Power Minimization through Placement and Routing Constraints

    Deepak Agarwal

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs are pervasive in embedded systems requiring low-power utilization. A novel power optimization methodology for reducing the dynamic power consumed by the routing of FPGA circuits by modifying the constraints applied to existing commercial tool sets is presented. The power optimization techniques influence commercial FPGA Place and Route (PAR tools by translating power goals into standard throughput and placement-based constraints. The Low-Power Intelligent Tool Environment (LITE is presented, which was developed to support the experimentation of power models and power optimization algorithms. The generated constraints seek to implement one of four power optimization approaches: slack minimization, clock tree paring, N-terminal net colocation, and area minimization. In an experimental study, we optimize dynamic power of circuits mapped into 0.12 μm Xilinx Virtex-II FPGAs. Results show that several optimization algorithms can be combined on a single design, and power is reduced by up to 19.4%, with an average power savings of 10.2%.

  5. Multicast routing for wavelength-routed WDM networks with dynamic membership

    Huang, Nen-Fu; Liu, Te-Lung; Wang, Yao-Tzung; Li, Bo

    2000-09-01

    Future broadband networks must support integrated services and offer flexible bandwidth usage. In our previous work, we explore the optical link control layer on the top of optical layer that enables the possibility of bandwidth on-demand service directly over wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) networks. Today, more and more applications and services such as video-conferencing software and Virtual LAN service require multicast support over the underlying networks. Currently, it is difficult to provide wavelength multicast over the optical switches without optical/electronic conversions although the conversion takes extra cost. In this paper, based on the proposed wavelength router architecture (equipped with ATM switches to offer O/E and E/O conversions when necessary), a dynamic multicast routing algorithm is proposed to furnish multicast services over WDM networks. The goal is to joint a new group member into the multicast tree so that the cost, including the link cost and the optical/electronic conversion cost, is kept as less as possible. The effectiveness of the proposed wavelength router architecture as well as the dynamic multicast algorithm is evaluated by simulation.

  6. Dynamic Vehicle Routing Problems with Enhanced Ant Colony Optimization

    Haitao Xu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As we all know, there are a great number of optimization problems in the world. One of the relatively complicated and high-level problems is the vehicle routing problem (VRP. Dynamic vehicle routing problem (DVRP is a major variant of VRP, and it is closer to real logistic scene. In DVRP, the customers’ demands appear with time, and the unserved customers’ points must be updated and rearranged while carrying out the programming paths. Owing to the complexity and significance of the problem, DVRP applications have grabbed the attention of researchers in the past two decades. In this paper, we have two main contributions to solving DVRP. Firstly, DVRP is solved with enhanced Ant Colony Optimization (E-ACO, which is the traditional Ant Colony Optimization (ACO fusing improved K-means and crossover operation. K-means can divide the region with the most reasonable distance, while ACO using crossover is applied to extend search space and avoid falling into local optimum prematurely. Secondly, several new evaluation benchmarks are proposed, which can objectively and comprehensively estimate the proposed method. In the experiment, the results for different scale problems are compared to those of previously published papers. Experimental results show that the algorithm is feasible and efficient.

  7. A MODIFIED ROUTE DISCOVERY APPROACH FOR DYNAMIC SOURCE ROUTING (DSR PROTOCOL IN MOBILE AD-HOC NETWORKS

    Alaa Azmi Allahham

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Mobile Ad-hoc networks (MANETs involved in many applications, whether commercial or military because of their characteristics that do not depend on the infrastructure as well as the freedom movement of their elements, but in return has caused this random mobility of the nodes many of the challenges, where the routing is considered one of these challenges. There are many types of routing protocols that operate within MANET networks, which responsible for finding paths between the source and destination nodes with the modernization of these paths which are constantly changing due to the dynamic topology of the network stemming from the constant random movement of the nodes. The DSR (Dynamic Source Routing routing protocol algorithm is one of these routing protocols which consist of two main stages; route discovery and maintenance, where the route discovery algorithm operates based on blind flooding of request messages. blind flooding is considered as the most well known broadcasting mechanism, it is inefficient in terms of communication and resource utilization, which causing increasing the probability of collisions, repeating send several copies of the same message, as well as increasing the delay. Hence, a new mechanism in route discovery stage and in caching the routes in DSR algorithm according to the node's location in the network and the direction of the broadcast is proposed for better performance especially in terms of delay as well as redundant packets rate. The implementation of proposed algorithms showed positive results in terms of delay, overhead, and improve the performance of MANETs in general.

  8. The route of joint of the transnational corporations and globalization

    Luminiţa PISTOL

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Today’s discussions on globalization are more alive and controversial. As is acknowledged as a fact, globalization is studied not only as an economic category but as a process, system, phenomenon. Currently, on international level, a variety of companies operate. From all of these, the transnational corporation represent particular interest, being designated as an "entity-key of global economic activity, a creative net worth to devote a large proportion of global resources needed to sustain economic growth processes. The new trend in the TNC’s sites emphasize, efforts to promote corporate social responsibility that contributes to change the attitude of many corporations and individuals working for them. Company efforts are visible in contributions to community development and environmental impact. Corporations want to impose their own standards of development, which reflects some positive attitude towards regulations that support behavioral codes, which they argue. Globalization has opened the way for limited progress, offered alternatives to local development, has generated deep changes, n dimensional complex with sometimes unpre-dictable consequences on economic and socio-institutional development.

  9. Dynamic multicast routing scheme in WDM optical network

    Zhu, Yonghua; Dong, Zhiling; Yao, Hong; Yang, Jianyong; Liu, Yibin

    2007-11-01

    During the information era, the Internet and the service of World Wide Web develop rapidly. Therefore, the wider and wider bandwidth is required with the lower and lower cost. The demand of operation turns out to be diversified. Data, images, videos and other special transmission demands share the challenge and opportunity with the service providers. Simultaneously, the electrical equipment has approached their limit. So the optical communication based on the wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) and the optical cross-connects (OXCs) shows great potentials and brilliant future to build an optical network based on the unique technical advantage and multi-wavelength characteristic. In this paper, we propose a multi-layered graph model with inter-path between layers to solve the problem of multicast routing wavelength assignment (RWA) contemporarily by employing an efficient graph theoretic formulation. And at the same time, an efficient dynamic multicast algorithm named Distributed Message Copying Multicast (DMCM) mechanism is also proposed. The multicast tree with minimum hops can be constructed dynamically according to this proposed scheme.

  10. Global attractors and extinction dynamics of cyclically competing species.

    Rulands, Steffen; Zielinski, Alejandro; Frey, Erwin

    2013-05-01

    Transitions to absorbing states are of fundamental importance in nonequilibrium physics as well as ecology. In ecology, absorbing states correspond to the extinction of species. We here study the spatial population dynamics of three cyclically interacting species. The interaction scheme comprises both direct competition between species as in the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, and separated selection and reproduction processes as in the May-Leonard model. We show that the dynamic processes leading to the transient maintenance of biodiversity are closely linked to attractors of the nonlinear dynamics for the overall species' concentrations. The characteristics of these global attractors change qualitatively at certain threshold values of the mobility and depend on the relative strength of the different types of competition between species. They give information about the scaling of extinction times with the system size and thereby the stability of biodiversity. We define an effective free energy as the negative logarithm of the probability to find the system in a specific global state before reaching one of the absorbing states. The global attractors then correspond to minima of this effective energy landscape and determine the most probable values for the species' global concentrations. As in equilibrium thermodynamics, qualitative changes in the effective free energy landscape indicate and characterize the underlying nonequilibrium phase transitions. We provide the complete phase diagrams for the population dynamics and give a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics and routes to extinction in the respective phases.

  11. The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models

    Zhao, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Frieler, K.; Schewe, J.; Ostberg, S.; Willner, S. N.; Schauberger, B.; Gosling, S.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Portmann, F. T.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hanasaki, N.; Biemans, H.; Gerten, D.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Stacke, T.; Ciais, P.; Chang, J.; Ducharne, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Wada, Y.; Kim, H.; Yamazaki, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

  12. DTN routing in body sensor networks with dynamic postural partitioning.

    Quwaider, Muhannad; Biswas, Subir

    2010-11-01

    This paper presents novel store-and-forward packet routing algorithms for Wireless Body Area Networks ( WBAN ) with frequent postural partitioning. A prototype WBAN has been constructed for experimentally characterizing on-body topology disconnections in the presence of ultra short range radio links, unpredictable RF attenuation, and human postural mobility. On-body DTN routing protocols are then developed using a stochastic link cost formulation, capturing multi-scale topological localities in human postural movements. Performance of the proposed protocols are evaluated experimentally and via simulation, and are compared with a number of existing single-copy DTN routing protocols and an on-body packet flooding mechanism that serves as a performance benchmark with delay lower-bound. It is shown that via multi-scale modeling of the spatio-temporal locality of on-body link disconnection patterns, the proposed algorithms can provide better routing performance compared to a number of existing probabilistic, opportunistic, and utility-based DTN routing protocols in the literature.

  13. SDN-enabled dynamic WDM networks to address routing information inaccuracy

    Ravhuanzwo, Lusani

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Large dynamic wavelength-division multiplexed (WDM) networks based on the distributed control mechanism are susceptible to routing information inaccuracies. Factors such as non-negligible propagation delays, infrequent network state updates...

  14. RELIABLE DYNAMIC SOURCE ROUTING PROTOCOL (RDSRP FOR ENERGY HARVESTING WIRELESS SENSOR NETWORKS

    B. Narasimhan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor networks (WSNs carry noteworthy pros over traditional communication. Though, unkind and composite environments fake great challenges in the reliability of WSN communications. It is more vital to develop a reliable unipath dynamic source routing protocol (RDSRPl for WSN to provide better quality of service (QoS in energy harvesting wireless sensor networks (EH-WSN. This paper proposes a dynamic source routing approach for attaining the most reliable route in EH-WSNs. Performance evaluation is carried out using NS-2 and throughput and packet delivery ratio are chosen as the metrics.

  15. Dynamic Routing and Coordination in Multi-Agent Networks

    2016-06-10

    epidemics spreading . Bibliography (J1) F. Pasqualetti, S. Zampieri, and F. Bullo. Controllability metrics, limitations and algorithms for complex networks ...controllability properties of the clusters and on their coupling strength. We validate our results with examples from power networks , social networks , and...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Supported by this project, we designed innovative routing, planning and coordination strategies for robotic networks and

  16. Trust-Based Route Selection in Dynamic Source Routin

    Jensen, Christian D.; Connell, Paul O

    2006-01-01

    in the mobile wireless network. However, blindly trusting all other nodes to respect the routing protocol exposes the local node to a wide variety of vulnerabilities. Traditional security mechanisms rely on either the authenticated identity of the requesting principal or some form of credentials that authorise...

  17. On a New Route to Chaos in Railway Dynamics

    True, Hans; Jensen, Carsten Nordstroem

    1997-01-01

    a period-doubling cascade of the secondary period in an asymptotically stable quasiperiodic oscillation at decreasing speed. Several quasiperiodic windows were found in the chaotic motion. This route to chaos was first described by Franceschini [9], who discovered it in a seven-mode truncation of the plane...

  18. Tractable dynamic global games and applications

    Mathevet, L.; Steiner, Jakub

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 148, č. 6 (2013), s. 2583-2619 ISSN 0022-0531 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : global games * dynamic game * coordination Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.919, year: 2013

  19. Coherent regimes of globally coupled dynamical systems

    de Monte, Silvia; D'ovidio, Francesco; Mosekilde, Erik

    2003-01-01

    This Letter presents a method by which the mean field dynamics of a population of dynamical systems with parameter diversity and global coupling can be described in terms of a few macroscopic degrees of freedom. The method applies to populations of any size and functional form in the region...

  20. Quantifying airborne dispersal routes of pathogens over continents to safeguard global wheat supply.

    Meyer, M; Cox, J A; Hitchings, M D T; Burgin, L; Hort, M C; Hodson, D P; Gilligan, C A

    2017-10-01

    Infectious crop diseases spreading over large agricultural areas pose a threat to food security. Aggressive strains of the obligate pathogenic fungus Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici (Pgt), causing the crop disease wheat stem rust, have been detected in East Africa and the Middle East, where they lead to substantial economic losses and threaten livelihoods of farmers. The majority of commercially grown wheat cultivars worldwide are susceptible to these emerging strains, which pose a risk to global wheat production, because the fungal spores transmitting the disease can be wind-dispersed over regions and even continents 1-11 . Targeted surveillance and control requires knowledge about airborne dispersal of pathogens, but the complex nature of long-distance dispersal poses significant challenges for quantitative research 12-14 . We combine international field surveys, global meteorological data, a Lagrangian dispersion model and high-performance computational resources to simulate a set of disease outbreak scenarios, tracing billions of stochastic trajectories of fungal spores over dynamically changing host and environmental landscapes for more than a decade. This provides the first quantitative assessment of spore transmission frequencies and amounts amongst all wheat producing countries in Southern/East Africa, the Middle East and Central/South Asia. We identify zones of high air-borne connectivity that geographically correspond with previously postulated wheat rust epidemiological zones (characterized by endemic disease and free movement of inoculum) 10,15 , and regions with genetic similarities in related pathogen populations 16,17 . We quantify the circumstances (routes, timing, outbreak sizes) under which virulent pathogen strains such as 'Ug99' 5,6 pose a threat from long-distance dispersal out of East Africa to the large wheat producing areas in Pakistan and India. Long-term mean spore dispersal trends (predominant direction, frequencies, amounts) are

  1. The Dynamics of Regional and Global Expansion

    Geisler Asmussen, Christian; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Osegowitsch, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to model and test the dynamics of home-regional and global penetration by multi-national enterprises (MNEs). Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on international business (IB) theory, the authors model MNEs adjusting their home-regional and global market...... domain. Findings – The authors demonstrate that MNEs do penetrate both home-regional and global markets, often simultaneously, and that penetration levels often oscillate within an MNE over time. The authors show firms’ rates of regional and global expansion to be affected by their existing regional...

  2. DARAL: A Dynamic and Adaptive Routing Algorithm for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Francisco José Estévez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of Smart City projects is pushing researchers and companies to develop more efficient embedded hardware and also more efficient communication technologies. These communication technologies are the focus of this work, presenting a new routing algorithm based on dynamically-allocated sub-networks and node roles. Among these features, our algorithm presents a fast set-up time, a reduced overhead and a hierarchical organization, which allows for the application of complex management techniques. This work presents a routing algorithm based on a dynamically-allocated hierarchical clustering, which uses the link quality indicator as a reference parameter, maximizing the network coverage and minimizing the control message overhead and the convergence time. The present work based its test scenario and analysis in the density measure, considered as a node degree. The routing algorithm is compared with some of the most well known routing algorithms for different scenario densities.

  3. Role of Distance-Based Routing in Traffic Dynamics on Mobile Networks

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Wen-Xu

    2013-06-01

    Despite of intensive investigations on transportation dynamics taking place on complex networks with fixed structures, a deep understanding of networks consisting of mobile nodes is challenging yet, especially the lacking of insight into the effects of routing strategies on transmission efficiency. We introduce a distance-based routing strategy for networks of mobile agents toward enhancing the network throughput and the transmission efficiency. We study the transportation capacity and delivering time of data packets associated with mobility and communication ability. Interestingly, we find that the transportation capacity is optimized at moderate moving speed, which is quite different from random routing strategy. In addition, both continuous and discontinuous transitions from free flow to congestions are observed. Degree distributions are explored in order to explain the enhancement of network throughput and other observations. Our work is valuable toward understanding complex transportation dynamics and designing effective routing protocols.

  4. Incentive Compatible and Globally Efficient Position Based Routing for Selfish Reverse Multicast in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Sarvesh Varatharajan

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of all-to-one selfish routing in the absence of a payment scheme in wireless sensor networks, where a natural model for cost is the power required to forward, referring to the resulting game as a Locally Minimum Cost Forwarding (LMCF. Our objective is to characterize equilibria and their global costs in terms of stretch and diameter, in particular finding incentive compatible algorithms that are also close to globally optimal. We find that although social costs for equilibria of LMCF exhibit arbitrarily bad worst-case bounds and computational infeasibility of reaching optimal equilibria, there exist greedy and local incentive compatible heuristics achieving near-optimal global costs.

  5. Geography of Global Forest Carbon Stocks & Dynamics

    Saatchi, S. S.; Yu, Y.; Xu, L.; Yang, Y.; Fore, A.; Ganguly, S.; Nemani, R. R.; Zhang, G.; Lefsky, M. A.; Sun, G.; Woodall, C. W.; Naesset, E.; Seibt, U. H.

    2014-12-01

    Spatially explicit distribution of carbon stocks and dynamics in global forests can greatly reduce the uncertainty in the terrestrial portion of the global carbon cycle by improving estimates of emissions and uptakes from land use activities, and help with green house gas inventory at regional and national scales. Here, we produce the first global distribution of carbon stocks in living woody biomass at ~ 100 m (1-ha) resolution for circa 2005 from a combination of satellite observations and ground inventory data. The total carbon stored in live woody biomass is estimated to be 337 PgC with 258 PgC in aboveground and 79 PgC in roots, and partitioned globally in boreal (20%), tropical evergreen (50%), temperate (12%), and woodland savanna and shrublands (15%). We use a combination of satellite observations of tree height, remote sensing data on deforestation and degradation to quantify the dynamics of these forests at the biome level globally and provide geographical distribution of carbon storage dynamics in terms sinks and sources globally.

  6. A Dynamic Optimization Method of Indoor Fire Evacuation Route Based on Real-time Situation Awareness

    DING Yulin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available How to provide safe and effective evacuation routes is an important safeguard to correctly guide evacuation and reduce the casualties during the fire situation rapidly evolving in complex indoor environment. The traditional static path finding method is difficult to adjust the path adaptively according to the changing fire situation, which lead to the evacuation decision-making blindness and hysteresis. This paper proposes a dynamic method which can dynamically optimize the indoor evacuation routes based on the real-time situation awareness. According to the real-time perception of fire situation parameters and the changing indoor environment information, the evacuation route is optimized dynamically. The integrated representation of multisource indoor fire monitoring sensor observations oriented fire emergency evacuation is presented at first, real-time fire threat situation information inside building is then extracted from the observation data of multi-source sensors, which is used to constrain the dynamical optimization of the topology of the evacuation route. Finally, the simulation experiments prove that this method can improve the accuracy and efficiency of indoor evacuation routing.

  7. Energy Efficiency Analysis for Dynamic Routing in Optical Transport Networks

    Vizcaíno, Jorge López; Ye, Yabin; Tafur Monroy, Idelfonso

    2012-01-01

    The energy efficiency in telecommunication networks is gaining more relevance as the Internet traffic is growing. The introduction of OFDM and dynamic operation opens new horizons in the operation of optical networks, improving the network flexibility and its efficiency. In this paper, we compare...... the performance in terms of energy efficiency of a flexible-grid OFDM-based solution with a fixed-grid WDM network in a dynamic scenario with time-varying connections. We highlight the benefits that the bandwidth elasticity and the flexibility of selecting different modulation formats can offer compared...

  8. A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation

    Xing Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.

  9. Tractable dynamic global games and applications

    Mathevet, L.; Steiner, Jakub

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 148, č. 6 (2013), s. 2583-2619 ISSN 0022-0531 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-34759S Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : global games * dynamic game * coordination Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.919, year: 2013

  10. Local and global measures of shape dynamics

    Driscoll, Meghan K; Losert, Wolfgang; Fourkas, John T

    2011-01-01

    The shape and motion of cells can yield significant insights into the internal operation of a cell. We present a simple, yet versatile, framework that provides multiple metrics of cell shape and cell shape dynamics. Analysis of migrating Dictyostelium discoideum cells shows that global and local metrics highlight distinct cellular processes. For example, a global measure of shape shows rhythmic oscillations suggestive of contractions, whereas a local measure of shape shows wave-like dynamics indicative of protrusions. From a local measure of dynamic shape, or boundary motion, we extract the times and locations of protrusions and retractions. We find that protrusions zigzag, while retractions remain roughly stationary along the boundary. We do not observe any temporal relationship between protrusions and retractions. Our analysis framework also provides metrics of the boundary as whole. For example, as the cell speed increases, we find that the cell shape becomes more elongated. We also observe that while extensions and retractions have similar areas, their shapes differ

  11. Short Term Strategies for a Dynamic Multi-Period Routing Problem

    Angelelli, E.; Bianchessi, N.; Mansini, R.; Speranza, M. G.

    2009-01-01

    We consider a Dynamic Multi-Period Routing Problem (DMPRP) faced by a company which deals with on-line pick-up requests and has to serve them by a fleet of uncapacitated vehicles over a finite time horizon. When a request is issued, a deadline of a given number of days d ≤ 2 is associated to it: if

  12. Energy Efficient Routing Algorithms in Dynamic Optical Core Networks with Dual Energy Sources

    Wang, Jiayuan; Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes new energy efficient routing algorithms in optical core networks, with the application of solar energy sources and bundled links. A comprehensive solar energy model is described in the proposed network scenarios. Network performance in energy savings, connection blocking...... probability, resource utilization and bundled link usage are evaluated with dynamic network simulations. Results show that algorithms proposed aiming for reducing the dynamic part of the energy consumption of the network may raise the fixed part of the energy consumption meanwhile....

  13. Diagrammatic routes to nonlocal correlations beyond dynamical mean field theory

    Rohringer, G.; Hafermann, H.; Toschi, A.; Katanin, A. A.; Antipov, A. E.; Katsnelson, M. I.; Lichtenstein, A. I.; Rubtsov, A. N.; Held, K.

    2018-04-01

    Strong electronic correlations pose one of the biggest challenges to solid state theory. Recently developed methods that address this problem by starting with the local, eminently important correlations of dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) are reviewed. In addition, nonlocal correlations on all length scales are generated through Feynman diagrams, with a local two-particle vertex instead of the bare Coulomb interaction as a building block. With these diagrammatic extensions of DMFT long-range charge, magnetic, and superconducting fluctuations as well as (quantum) criticality can be addressed in strongly correlated electron systems. An overview is provided of the successes and results achieved, mainly for model Hamiltonians, and an outline is given of future prospects for realistic material calculations.

  14. Optimal Route Searching with Multiple Dynamical Constraints—A Geometric Algebra Approach

    Dongshuang Li

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The process of searching for a dynamic constrained optimal path has received increasing attention in traffic planning, evacuation, and personalized or collaborative traffic service. As most existing multiple constrained optimal path (MCOP methods cannot search for a path given various types of constraints that dynamically change during the search, few approaches for dynamic multiple constrained optimal path (DMCOP with type II dynamics are available for practical use. In this study, we develop a method to solve the DMCOP problem with type II dynamics based on the unification of various types of constraints under a geometric algebra (GA framework. In our method, the network topology and three different types of constraints are represented by using algebraic base coding. With a parameterized optimization of the MCOP algorithm based on a greedy search strategy under the generation-refinement paradigm, this algorithm is found to accurately support the discovery of optimal paths as the constraints of numerical values, nodes, and route structure types are dynamically added to the network. The algorithm was tested with simulated cases of optimal tourism route searches in China’s road networks with various combinations of constraints. The case study indicates that our algorithm can not only solve the DMCOP with different types of constraints but also use constraints to speed up the route filtering.

  15. Improving the road network performance with dynamic route guidance by considering the indifference band of road users

    Vreeswijk, J.D.; Landman, R.L.; Van Berkum, E.C.; Hegyi, A.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Van Arem, B.

    2012-01-01

    When applying dynamic route guidance to improve the network performance, it is important to balance the interests of the road authorities and the road users. In this paper we will illustrate how bounded rationality and indifference bands can be taken into account in dynamic route guidance to improve

  16. Global Dynamics in Travel, Tourism, and Hospitality

    Pappas, Nikolaos; Bregoli, Ilenia

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, tourism is the third largest economic activity in direct earnings after petroleum and automobile industries, and by far the largest one if indirect earnings are also taken into consideration. Taking into account the profound economic impact the tourism and hospitality industries can have on regions and cities around the world, further research in this area is critical.\\ud \\ud Global Dynamics in Travel, Tourism, and Hospitality takes a holistic approach to tourism and hospitality op...

  17. Default Mode Dynamics for Global Functional Integration.

    Vatansever, Deniz; Menon, David K; Manktelow, Anne E; Sahakian, Barbara J; Stamatakis, Emmanuel A

    2015-11-18

    The default mode network (DMN) has been traditionally assumed to hinder behavioral performance in externally focused, goal-directed paradigms and to provide no active contribution to human cognition. However, recent evidence suggests greater DMN activity in an array of tasks, especially those that involve self-referential and memory-based processing. Although data that robustly demonstrate a comprehensive functional role for DMN remains relatively scarce, the global workspace framework, which implicates the DMN in global information integration for conscious processing, can potentially provide an explanation for the broad range of higher-order paradigms that report DMN involvement. We used graph theoretical measures to assess the contribution of the DMN to global functional connectivity dynamics in 22 healthy volunteers during an fMRI-based n-back working-memory paradigm with parametric increases in difficulty. Our predominant finding is that brain modularity decreases with greater task demands, thus adapting a more global workspace configuration, in direct relation to increases in reaction times to correct responses. Flexible default mode regions dynamically switch community memberships and display significant changes in their nodal participation coefficient and strength, which may reflect the observed whole-brain changes in functional connectivity architecture. These findings have important implications for our understanding of healthy brain function, as they suggest a central role for the DMN in higher cognitive processing. The default mode network (DMN) has been shown to increase its activity during the absence of external stimulation, and hence was historically assumed to disengage during goal-directed tasks. Recent evidence, however, implicates the DMN in self-referential and memory-based processing. We provide robust evidence for this network's active contribution to working memory by revealing dynamic reconfiguration in its interactions with other networks

  18. Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

  19. Robust On-Demand Multipath Routing with Dynamic Path Upgrade for Delay-Sensitive Data over Ad Hoc Networks

    Sunil Kumar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Node mobility in mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs causes frequent route breakages and intermittent link stability. In this paper, we introduce a robust routing scheme, known as ad hoc on-demand multipath distance vector with dynamic path update (AOMDV-DPU, for delay-sensitive data transmission over MANET. The proposed scheme improves the AOMDV scheme by incorporating the following features: (i a routing metric based on the combination of minimum hops and received signal strength indicator (RSSI for discovery of reliable routes; (ii a local path update mechanism which strengthens the route, reduces the route breakage frequency, and increases the route longevity; (iii a keep alive mechanism for secondary route maintenance which enables smooth switching between routes and reduces the route discovery frequency; (iv a packet salvaging scheme to improve packet delivery in the event of a route breakage; and (v low HELLO packet overhead. The simulations are carried out in ns-2 for varying node speeds, number of sources, and traffic load conditions. Our AOMDV-DPU scheme achieves significantly higher throughput, lower delay, routing overhead, and route discovery frequency and latency compared to AOMDV. For H.264 compressed video traffic, AOMDV-DPU scheme achieves 3 dB or higher PSNR gain over AOMDV at both low and high node speeds.

  20. Dynamic Routing for Delay-Tolerant Networking in Space Flight Operations

    Burleigh, Scott C.

    2008-01-01

    Contact Graph Routing (CGR) is a dynamic routing system that computes routes through a time-varying topology composed of scheduled, bounded communication contacts in a network built on the Delay-Tolerant Networking (DTN) architecture. It is designed to support operations in a space network based on DTN, but it also could be used in terrestrial applications where operation according to a predefined schedule is preferable to opportunistic communication, as in a low-power sensor network. This paper will describe the operation of the CGR system and explain how it can enable data delivery over scheduled transmission opportunities, fully utilizing the available transmission capacity, without knowing the current state of any bundle protocol node (other than the local node itself) and without exhausting processing resources at any bundle router.

  1. Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes

    Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

    2015-01-01

    Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes. PMID:26294903

  2. Dynamic Bus Travel Time Prediction Models on Road with Multiple Bus Routes.

    Bai, Cong; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Lu, Qing-Chang; Sun, Jian

    2015-01-01

    Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes.

  3. Dynamic UAV-based traffic monitoring under uncertainty as a stochastic arc-inventory routing policy

    Joseph Y.J. Chow

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Given the rapid advances in unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, and increasing need to monitor at a city level, one of the current research gaps is how to systematically deploy drones over multiple periods. We propose a real-time data-driven approach: we formulate the first deterministic arc-inventory routing problem and derive its stochastic dynamic policy. The policy is expected to be of greatest value in scenarios where uncertainty is highest and costliest, such as city monitoring during major events. The Bellman equation for an approximation of the proposed inventory routing policy is formulated as a selective vehicle routing problem. We propose an approximate dynamic programming algorithm based on Least Squares Monte Carlo simulation to find that policy. The algorithm has been modified so that the least squares dependent variable is defined to be the “expected stock out cost upon the next replenishment”. The new algorithm is tested on 30 simulated instances of real time trajectories over 5 time periods of the selective vehicle routing problem to evaluate the proposed policy and algorithm. Computational results on the selected instances show that the algorithm on average outperforms the myopic policy by 23–28%, depending on the parametric design. Further tests are conducted on classic benchmark arc routing problem instances. The 11-link instance gdb19 (Golden et al., 1983 is expanded into a sequential 15-period stochastic dynamic example and used to demonstrate why a naïve static multi-period deployment plan would not be effective in real networks.

  4. Long-Range Correlations and Memory in the Dynamics of Internet Interdomain Routing.

    Maksim Kitsak

    Full Text Available Data transfer is one of the main functions of the Internet. The Internet consists of a large number of interconnected subnetworks or domains, known as Autonomous Systems (ASes. Due to privacy and other reasons the information about what route to use to reach devices within other ASes is not readily available to any given AS. The Border Gateway Protocol (BGP is responsible for discovering and distributing this reachability information to all ASes. Since the topology of the Internet is highly dynamic, all ASes constantly exchange and update this reachability information in small chunks, known as routing control packets or BGP updates. In the view of the quick growth of the Internet there are significant concerns with the scalability of the BGP updates and the efficiency of the BGP routing in general. Motivated by these issues we conduct a systematic time series analysis of BGP update rates. We find that BGP update time series are extremely volatile, exhibit long-term correlations and memory effects, similar to seismic time series, or temperature and stock market price fluctuations. The presented statistical characterization of BGP update dynamics could serve as a basis for validation of existing and developing better models of Internet interdomain routing.

  5. Effects of Telecoupling on Global Vegetation Dynamics

    Viña, A.; Liu, J.

    2016-12-01

    With the ever increasing trend in telecoupling processes, such as international trade, all countries around the world are becoming more interdependent. However, the effects of this growing interdependence on vegetation (e.g., shifts in the geographic extent and distribution) remain unknown even though vegetation dynamics are crucially important for food production, carbon sequestration, provision of other ecosystem services, and biodiversity conservation. In this study we evaluate the effects of international trade on the spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation at national and global scales, using vegetation index imagery collected over more than three decades by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor series together with concurrent national and international data on international trade (and its associated movement of people, goods, services and information). The spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation are obtained using the scale of fluctuation technique, which is based on the decomposition of the AVHRR image time series to obtain information on its spatial dependence structure over time. Similar to the correlation length, the scale of fluctuation corresponds to the range over which fluctuations in the vegetation index are spatially correlated. Results indicate that global vegetation has changed drastically over the last three decades. These changes are not uniform across space, with hotspots in active trading countries. This study not only has direct implications for understanding global vegetation dynamics, but also sheds important insights on the complexity of human-nature interactions across telecoupled systems.

  6. Dynamic biogeochemical provinces in the global ocean

    Reygondeau, Gabriel; Longhurst, Alan; Martinez, Elodie; Beaugrand, Gregory; Antoine, David; Maury, Olivier

    2013-12-01

    In recent decades, it has been found useful to partition the pelagic environment using the concept of biogeochemical provinces, or BGCPs, within each of which it is assumed that environmental conditions are distinguishable and unique at global scale. The boundaries between provinces respond to features of physical oceanography and, ideally, should follow seasonal and interannual changes in ocean dynamics. But this ideal has not been fulfilled except for small regions of the oceans. Moreover, BGCPs have been used only as static entities having boundaries that were originally established to compute global primary production. In the present study, a new statistical methodology based on non-parametric procedures is implemented to capture the environmental characteristics within 56 BGCPs. Four main environmental parameters (bathymetry, chlorophyll a concentration, surface temperature, and salinity) are used to infer the spatial distribution of each BGCP over 1997-2007. The resulting dynamic partition allows us to integrate changes in the distribution of BGCPs at seasonal and interannual timescales, and so introduces the possibility of detecting spatial shifts in environmental conditions.

  7. A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

    H. Goelzer

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage in post-processing mode that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

  8. Spectral encoded optical label detection for dynamic routing of impulse radio ultra-wideband signals in metro-access networks

    Osadchiy, Alexey Vladimirovich; Yu, Xianbin; Yin, Xiaoli

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose and experimentally demonstrate the principle of coherent label detection for dynamic routing of wavelength division multiplexed impulse radio ultra-wideband signals by using four-tone spectral amplitude coded labels.......In this paper we propose and experimentally demonstrate the principle of coherent label detection for dynamic routing of wavelength division multiplexed impulse radio ultra-wideband signals by using four-tone spectral amplitude coded labels....

  9. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    Grubler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic 'learning rates' that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. In contrast, most baseline projections for emissions of carbon, the chief cause of global warming, ignore this robust historical trend and show Iittle or no decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and

  10. A versatile route to hybrid open-framework materials | Ayi | Global ...

    The isolation of the intermediate phase and its reaction with metal ions to form open framework solids has been explored and it has proven a facile route of synthesizing inorganic-organic hybrid materials with open pores. Here the amine phosphate route of templating inorganic open-framework materials has been reviewed ...

  11. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  12. Tourist activated networks: Implications for dynamic bundling and en-route recommendations

    Zach, Florian; Gretzel, Ulrike

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses tourist-activated networks as a concept to inform technological applications supporting dynamic bundling and en route recommendations. Empirical data were collected from travelers who visited a regional destination in the US and then analyzed with respect to its network...... structure. The results indicate that the tourist-activated network for the destination is rather sparse and that there are clearly differences in core and peripheral nodes. The findings illustrate the structure of a tourist-activated network and provide implications for technology design and tourism...

  13. A Proposal for IoT Dynamic Routes Selection Based on Contextual Information.

    Araújo, Harilton da Silva; Filho, Raimir Holanda; Rodrigues, Joel J P C; Rabelo, Ricardo de A L; Sousa, Natanael de C; Filho, José C C L S; Sobral, José V V

    2018-01-26

    The Internet of Things (IoT) is based on interconnection of intelligent and addressable devices, allowing their autonomy and proactive behavior with Internet connectivity. Data dissemination in IoT usually depends on the application and requires context-aware routing protocols that must include auto-configuration features (which adapt the behavior of the network at runtime, based on context information). This paper proposes an approach for IoT route selection using fuzzy logic in order to attain the requirements of specific applications. In this case, fuzzy logic is used to translate in math terms the imprecise information expressed by a set of linguistic rules. For this purpose, four Objective Functions (OFs) are proposed for the Routing Protocol for Low Power and Loss Networks (RPL); such OFs are dynamically selected based on context information. The aforementioned OFs are generated from the fusion of the following metrics: Expected Transmission Count (ETX), Number of Hops (NH) and Energy Consumed (EC). The experiments performed through simulation, associated with the statistical data analysis, conclude that this proposal provides high reliability by successfully delivering nearly 100% of data packets, low delay for data delivery and increase in QoS. In addition, an 30% improvement is attained in the network life time when using one of proposed objective function, keeping the devices alive for longer duration.

  14. The effect of dynamic scheduling and routing in a solid waste management system

    Johansson, Ola M.

    2006-01-01

    Solid waste collection and hauling account for the greater part of the total cost in modern solid waste management systems. In a recent initiative, 3300 Swedish recycling containers have been fitted with level sensors and wireless communication equipment, thereby giving waste collection operators access to real-time information on the status of each container. In this study, analytical modeling and discrete-event simulation have been used to evaluate different scheduling and routing policies utilizing the real-time data. In addition to the general models developed, an empirical simulation study has been performed on the downtown recycling station system in Malmoe, Sweden. From the study, it can be concluded that dynamic scheduling and routing policies exist that have lower operating costs, shorter collection and hauling distances, and reduced labor hours compared to the static policy with fixed routes and pre-determined pick-up frequencies employed by many waste collection operators today. The results of the analytical model and the simulation models are coherent, and consistent with experiences of the waste collection operators

  15. A Proposal for IoT Dynamic Routes Selection Based on Contextual Information

    Harilton da Silva Araújo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Internet of Things (IoT is based on interconnection of intelligent and addressable devices, allowing their autonomy and proactive behavior with Internet connectivity. Data dissemination in IoT usually depends on the application and requires context-aware routing protocols that must include auto-configuration features (which adapt the behavior of the network at runtime, based on context information. This paper proposes an approach for IoT route selection using fuzzy logic in order to attain the requirements of specific applications. In this case, fuzzy logic is used to translate in math terms the imprecise information expressed by a set of linguistic rules. For this purpose, four Objective Functions (OFs are proposed for the Routing Protocol for Low Power and Loss Networks (RPL; such OFs are dynamically selected based on context information. The aforementioned OFs are generated from the fusion of the following metrics: Expected Transmission Count (ETX, Number of Hops (NH and Energy Consumed (EC. The experiments performed through simulation, associated with the statistical data analysis, conclude that this proposal provides high reliability by successfully delivering nearly 100% of data packets, low delay for data delivery and increase in QoS. In addition, an 30% improvement is attained in the network life time when using one of proposed objective function, keeping the devices alive for longer duration.

  16. An intermittency route to global instability in low-density jets

    Murugesan, Meenatchidevi; Zhu, Yuanhang; Li, Larry K. B.

    2017-11-01

    Above a critical Reynolds number (Re), a low-density jet can become globally unstable, transitioning from a steady state (i.e. a fixed point) to a self-excited oscillatory state (i.e. a limit cycle) via a Hopf bifurcation. In this experimental study, we show that this transition can sometimes involve intermittency. When Re is just slightly above the critical point, intermittent bursts of high-amplitude periodic oscillations emerge amidst a background of low-amplitude aperiodic fluctuations. As Re increases further, these intermittent bursts persist longer in time until they dominate the overall dynamics, causing the jet to transition fully to a periodic limit cycle. We identify this as Type-II Pomeau-Manneville intermittency by quantifying the statistical distribution of the duration of the aperiodic fluctuations at the onset of intermittency. This study shows that the transition to global instability in low-density jets is not always abrupt but can involve an intermediate state with characteristics of both the initial fixed point and the final limit cycle. This work was supported by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (Project No. 16235716 and 26202815).

  17. A reliability-based approach of fastest routes planning in dynamic traffic network under emergency management situation

    Ye Sun

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to establish an available emergency management system, it is important to conduct effective evacuation with reliable and real time optimal route plans. This paper aims at creating a route finding strategy by considering the time dependent factors as well as uncertainties that may be encountered during the emergency management system. To combine dynamic features with the level of reliability in the process of fastest route planning, the speed distribution of typical intercity roads is studied in depth, and the strategy of modifying real time speed to a more reliable value based on speed distribution is proposed. Two algorithms of route planning have been developed to find three optimal routes with the shortest travel time and the reliability of 0.9. In order to validate the new strategy, experimental implementation of the route planning method is conducted based on road speed information acquired by field study. The results show that the proposed strategy might provide more reliable routes in dynamic traffic networks by conservatively treating roads with large speed discretion or with relative extreme real speed value.

  18. Airspace Technology Demonstration 3 (ATD-3): Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) Technology Transfer Document Summary Version 1.0

    Sheth, Kapil; Wang, Easter Mayan Chan

    2016-01-01

    Airspace Technology Demonstration #3 (ATD-3) is part of NASA's Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) - specifically, its Airspace Technology Demonstrations (ATD) Project. ATD-3 is a multiyear research and development effort which proposes to develop and demonstrate automation technologies and operating concepts that enable air navigation service providers and airspace users to continuously assess weather, winds, traffic, and other information to identify, evaluate, and implement workable opportunities for flight plan route corrections that can result in significant flight time and fuel savings in en route airspace. In order to ensure that the products of this tech-transfer are relevant and useful, NASA has created strong partnerships with the FAA and key industry stakeholders. This summary document and accompanying technology artifacts satisfy the first of three Research Transition Products (RTPs) defined in the Applied Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) Research Transition Team (RTT) Plan. This transfer consists of NASA's legacy Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) work for efficient routing for en-route weather avoidance. DWR is a ground-based trajectory automation system that continuously and automatically analyzes active airborne aircraft in en route airspace to identify opportunities for simple corrections to flight plan routes that can save significant flying time, at least five minutes wind-corrected, while avoiding weather and considering traffic conflicts, airspace sector congestion, special use airspace, and FAA routing restrictions. The key benefit of the DWR concept is to let automation continuously and automatically analyze active flights to find those where simple route corrections can save significant time and fuel. Operators are busy during weather events. It is more effective to let automation find the opportunities for high-value route corrections.

  19. Routes, dynamics, and correlates of cochlear inflammation in terminal and recovering experimental meningitis

    Cayé-Thomasen, Per; Worsøe, Lise; Brandt, Christian Thomas

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS: To examine the routes, dynamics and correlates of cochlear inflammation in meningitis to provide information on the pathogenesis of the associated hearing loss and indications for rational pharmacotherapeutical intervention. STUDY DESIGN: A well-established rat model...... with inflammatory cells via cochlear aqueduct, whereas the endolymphatic space was infiltrated from the spiral ligament. Rosenthal's canal was infiltrated through osseous spiral lamina canaliculi. In the untreated group, the degree of inflammation correlated with time of death, whereas antibiotic treatment reversed...... this development. Perilymphatic inflammation correlated significantly with the CSF leukocyte count, whereas endolymphatic inflammation correlated with spiral ligament inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: Meningogenic inflammation of the rat cochlea occurs via the cochlear aqueduct and the spiral ligament capillary bed...

  20. Global Invasion History of the Tropical Fire Ant, Solenopsis geminata: A Stowaway on the First Global Trade Routes

    Biological invasions are largely thought to be contemporary, having recently increased sharply in the wake of globalization. However, human commerce had already become global in scope by the mid-16th century, when the Spanish connected the New World with Europe and Asia via their Manila galleon and ...

  1. Global intensity correction in dynamic scenes

    Withagen, P.J.; Schutte, K.; Groen, F.C.A.

    2007-01-01

    Changing image intensities causes problems for many computer vision applications operating in unconstrained environments. We propose generally applicable algorithms to correct for global differences in intensity between images recorded with a static or slowly moving camera, regardless of the cause

  2. New route for uranium concentrate production from Caetite ore, Bahia State, Brazil; dynamic leaching - direct precipitation

    Morais, Carlos A. [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)]. E-mail: cmorais@cdtn.br; Gomiero, Luiz A.; Scassiotti Filho, Walter [Industrias Nucleares do Brasil S.A. (INB), Caetite, BA (Brazil)]. E-mails: gomiero@inb.gov.br; scassiotti@inb.gov.br

    2007-07-01

    The common uranium concentrate production consists of ore leaching, uranium purification/concentration by solvent extraction and uranium precipitation as ammonium diuranate steps. In the present work, a new route of uranium concentrate production from Caetite, BA-Brazil ore was investigated. The following steps were investigated: dynamic leaching of the ground ore with sulfuric acid; sulfuric liquor pre-neutralization until pH 3.7; uranium peroxide precipitation. The study was carried out in bath and continuous circuits. In the dynamic leaching of ground ore in agitated tanks the uranium content in the leached ore may be as low as 100 {mu}g/g U{sub 3}O{sub 8}, depending on grinding size. In the pre-neutralization step, the iron content in the liquor is decreased in 99 wt.%, dropping from 3.62 g/L to 0.030 g/L. The sulfate content in the liquor reduces from 46 g/L to 22 g/L. A calcinated final product assaying 99.7 wt.% U{sub 3}O{sub 8} was obtained. The full process recovery was over 94%. (author)

  3. Potential vorticity dynamics for global scale circulations

    Lu, C.; Schubert, W.

    1994-01-01

    One of the most notable advances in extratropical dynamics this decade has been the understanding of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes by using potential vorticity dynamics, the so called open-quotes IPV thinking.close quotes This analysis method has also been successfully extended to some tropical atmospheric circulation systems such as hurricanes and the Hadley circulation. The fundamental idea behind such a dynamic system rests with the fact that PV is a tracer-like quantity since it is conserved (in the absence of friction and diabatic heating) following a fluid particle and carries both significant dynamic and thermodynamic information regarding fluid motion. Thus, the prediction and inversion of PV form the most succinct dynamic view of atmospheric and oceanic motions. Furthermore, PV dynamics provides access to many insightful dynamic analyses such as: Propagation of Rossby waves, barotropic and baroclinic instabilities for shear flows, and wave-mean flow interactions. All these features make IPV analysis a very attractive tool for studying geophysical fluid systems

  4. Earth Observation of Vegetation Dynamics in Global Drylands

    Tian, Feng

    Land degradation in global drylands has been a concern related to both the local livelihoods and the changes in terrestrial biosphere, especially in the context of substantial global environmental changes. Earth Observation (EO) provides a unique way to assess the vegetation dynamics over the past...

  5. The Opening of the Northern Sea Routes: The Implications for Global Shipping and for Canada’s Relations with Asia

    Hugh Stephens

    2016-05-01

    for the movement of western resources to growing Asian markets. But even moderate levels of shipping through the Northwest Passage do have the potential to change Canada’s relationship with its Asian trading partners, especially China. The Canadian and Chinese governments share a number of priorities regarding the Arctic, including environmental protection, safer navigation and resource development. These will provide opportunities for more dialogue and engagement between the two countries. While the Northwest Passage may not become the important trans-shipment route to Asia once imagined by enthusiastic observers, the most meaningful impact that a more useful route may provide is to alter, and improve, the course of Canada’s relations in the Asia-Pacific region. This paper seeks to examine likely developments and trends in Arctic shipping given the shrinkage of the polar ice cap, and to situate these trends in the broader context of changing global maritime and trade realities with particular focus on their impact on trade with Asia. There are implications for Canada and its relations with Asia, especially China, that flow from these developments.

  6. Multi-Objective Emergency Material Vehicle Dispatching and Routing under Dynamic Constraints in an Earthquake Disaster Environment

    Jincheng Jiang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Emergency material vehicle dispatching and routing (EMVDR is an important task in emergency relief after large-scale earthquake disasters. However, EMVDR is subject to dynamic disaster environment, with uncertainty surrounding elements such as the transportation network and relief materials. Accurate and dynamic emergency material dispatching and routing is difficult. This paper proposes an effective and efficient multi-objective multi-dynamic-constraint emergency material vehicle dispatching and routing model. Considering travel time, road capacity, and material supply and demand, the proposed EMVDR model is to deliver emergency materials from multiple emergency material depositories to multiple disaster points while satisfying the objectives of maximizing transport efficiency and minimizing the difference of material urgency degrees among multiple disaster points at any one time. Furthermore, a continuous-time dynamic network flow method is developed to solve this complicated model. The collected data from Ludian earthquake were used to conduct our experiments in the post-quake and the results demonstrate that: (1 the EMVDR model adapts to the dynamic disaster environment very well; (2 considering the difference of material urgency degree, the material loss ratio is −10.7%, but the variance of urgency degree decreases from 2.39 to 0.37; (3 the EMVDR model shows good performance in time and space, which allows for decisions to be made nearly in real time. This paper can provide spatial decision-making support for emergency material relief in large-scale earthquake disasters.

  7. Dynamic Carpooling in Urban Areas: Design and Experimentation with a Multi-Objective Route Matching Algorith

    Matteo Mallus

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on dynamic carpooling services in urban areas to address the needs of mobility in real-time by proposing a two-fold contribution: a solution with novel features with respect to the current state-of-the-art, which is named CLACSOON and is available on the market; the analysis of the carpooling services performance in the urban area of the city of Cagliari through emulations. Two new features characterize the proposed solution: partial ridesharing, according to which the riders can walk to reach the driver along his/her route when driving to the destination; the possibility to share the ride when the driver has already started the ride by modelling the mobility to reach the driver destination. To analyse which features of the population bring better performance to changing the characteristics of the users, we also conducted emulations. When compared with current solutions, CLACSOON allows for achieving a decrease in the waiting time of around 55% and an increase in the driver and passenger success rates of around 4% and 10%,respectively. Additionally, the proposed features allowed for having an increase in the reduction of the CO2 emission by more than 10% with respect to the traditional carpooling service.

  8. Diverse range dynamics and dispersal routes of plants on the Tibetan Plateau during the late Quaternary.

    Haibin Yu

    Full Text Available Phylogeographical studies have suggested that several plant species on the Tibetan Plateau (TP underwent recolonization during the Quaternary and may have had distinct range dynamics in response to the last glacial. To further test this hypothesis and locate the possible historical dispersal routes, we selected 20 plant species from different parts of the TP and modeled their geographical distributions over four time periods using species distribution models (SDMs. Furthermore, we applied the least-cost path method together with SDMs and shared haplotypes to estimate their historical dispersal corridors. We identified three general scenarios of species distribution change during the late Quaternary: the 'contraction-expansion' scenario for species in the northeastern TP, the 'expansion-contraction' scenario for species in the southeast and the 'stable' scenario for widespread species. During the Quaternary, we identified that these species were likely to recolonize along the low-elevation valleys, huge mountain ranges and flat plateau platform (e.g. the Yarlung Zangbo Valley and the Himalaya. We inferred that Quaternary cyclic glaciations along with the various topographic and climatic conditions of the TP could have resulted in the diverse patterns of range shift and dispersal of Tibetan plant species. Finally, we believe that this study would provide valuable insights for the conservation of alpine species under future climate change.

  9. Pheromone Static Routing Strategy for Complex Networks

    Hu, Mao-Bin; Henry, Y. K. Lau; Ling, Xiang; Jiang, Rui

    2012-12-01

    We adopt the concept of using pheromones to generate a set of static paths that can reach the performance of global dynamic routing strategy [Phys. Rev. E 81 (2010) 016113]. The path generation method consists of two stages. In the first stage, a pheromone is dropped to the nodes by packets forwarded according to the global dynamic routing strategy. In the second stage, pheromone static paths are generated according to the pheromone density. The output paths can greatly improve traffic systems' overall capacity on different network structures, including scale-free networks, small-world networks and random graphs. Because the paths are static, the system needs much less computational resources than the global dynamic routing strategy.

  10. River routing at the continental scale: use of globally-available data and an a priori method of parameter estimation

    P. Naden

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Two applications of a river routing model based on the observed river network and a linearised solution to the convective-diffusion equation are presented. One is an off-line application to part of the Amazon basin (catchment area 2.15 M km2 using river network data from the Digital Chart of the World and GCM-generated runoff at a grid resolution of 2.5 degrees latitude and 3.75 degrees longitude. The other application is to the Arkansas (409,000 km2 and Red River (125,500 km2 basins as an integrated component of a macro-scale hydrological model, driven by observed meteorology and operating on a 17 km grid. This second application makes use of the US EPA reach data to construct the river network. In both cases, a method of computing parameter values a priori has been applied and shows some success, although some interpretation is required to derive `correct' parameter values and further work is needed to develop guidelines for use of the method. The applications, however, do demonstrate the possibilities for applying the routing model at the continental scale, with globally-available data and a priori parameter estimation, and its value for validating GCM output against observed flows.

  11. Dynamic call center routing policies using call waiting and agent idle times

    Chan, W.; Koole, G.M.; L'Ecuyer, P.

    2014-01-01

    We study call routing policies for call centers with multiple call types and multiple agent groups. We introduce new weight-based routing policies where each pair (call type, agent group) is given a matching priority defined as an affine combination of the longest waiting time for that call type and

  12. The Health Valley: Global Entrepreneurial Dynamics.

    Dubuis, Benoit

    2014-12-01

    In the space of a decade, the Lake Geneva region has become the Health Valley, a world-class laboratory for discovering and developing healthcare of the future. Through visionary individuals and thanks to exceptional infrastructure this region has become one of the most dynamic in the field of innovation, including leading scientific research and exceptional actors for the commercialization of academic innovation to industrial applications that will improve the lives of patients and their families. Here follows the chronicle of a spectacular expansion into the Health Valley.

  13. Global patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in coastal ecosystems

    Paerl, H.; Yin, Kedong; Cloern, J.

    2011-01-01

    Scientific Committee on Ocean Research Working Group 137 Meeting; Hangzhou, China, 17-21 October 2010; Phytoplankton biomass and community structure have undergone dramatic changes in coastal ecosystems over the past several decades in response to climate variability and human disturbance. These changes have short- and long-term impacts on global carbon and nutrient cycling, food web structure and productivity, and coastal ecosystem services. There is a need to identify the underlying processes and measure the rates at which they alter coastal ecosystems on a global scale. Hence, the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) formed Working Group 137 (WG 137), "Global Patterns of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Coastal Ecosystems: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Observations" (http://wg137.net/). This group evolved from a 2007 AGU-sponsored Chapman Conference entitled "Long Time-Series Observations in Coastal Ecosystems: Comparative Analyses of Phytoplankton Dynamics on Regional to Global Scales.".

  14. Reduction of CO2 emissions from road transport in cities impact of dynamic route guidance system on greenhouse gas emission

    Markiewicz, Michal

    2017-01-01

    Michal Markiewicz presents the outcomes of his research regarding the influence of dynamic route guidance system on overall emission of carbon dioxide from road transport in rural areas. Sustainable transportation in smart cities is a big challenge of our time, but before electric vehicles replace vehicles that burn fossil fuels we have to think about traffic optimization methods that reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Contents Comparison of Travel Time Measurements Using Floating Car Data and Intelligent Infrastructure Integration of Cellular Automata Traffic Simulator with CO2 Emission Model Impact of Dynamic Route Guidance System on CO2 Emission Naxos Vehicular Traffic Simulator Target Groups Lecturers and students of computer science, transportation and logistics Traffic engineers The Author Dr. Michal Markiewicz defended his PhD thesis in computer science at the University of Bremen,TZI Technologie-Zentrum Informatik und Informationstechnik, Germany. Currently, he is working on commercializat...

  15. Forum on Global Climate Strategies. Beyond 2012. The Route Ahead. Looking for a consensus framework

    Perez-Arriaga, E.; Linares, P.; Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2007-06-01

    The scientific knowledge on climate change has firmed up considerably. This has been made broadly known by the publication of the initial documents of the Fourth Assessment Report on global warming by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The ample body of available scientific evidence now clearly indicates that climate change is serious and urgent. There is a generalized consensus from major academic, professional and political institutions about the importance of the climate change threat. This is more than enough to urge policy makers to put together a response that measures up to the challenge. A diversity of schemes and strategies to address climate change have been already identified and debated in public forums, so the challenges of a plausible long-term strategy, as well as the viewpoints of all countries, are now mostly explicit and known. Climate change can only be effectively tackled through broad participation in the global reduction effort by all present and future major emitters. Resolved political will is needed to make real progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There is a growing sense of urgency for stronger actions to curb the primary causes and to prepare for the consequences of global warming. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all Parties, especially the largest emitters, to join a global agreement and achieve sufficient reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to comply with art. 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Dialogue among the key international partners to explore global climate strategies is already being conducted in various international forums: formally under the UNFCC, but also within the G8 and other multilateral and bilateral meetings. Identification, analysis and proposals of alternatives are also being put forth in high-quality workshops run by universities and NGOs, with

  16. A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

    Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1994-01-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

  17. Local and global dynamical effects of dark energy

    Chernin, A. D.

    Local expansion flows of galaxies were discovered by Lemaitre and Hubble in 1927-29 at distances of less than 25-30 Mpc. The global expansion of the Universe as a whole was predicted theoretically by Friedmann in 1922-24 and discovered in the 1990s in observations at truly cosmological distances of more than 1 000 Mpc. On all these spatial scales, the flows follow a (nearly) linear velocity-distance relation, known now as Hubble's law. This similarity of local and global phenomena is due to the universal dark energy antigravity which dominates the cosmic dynamics on both local and global spatial scales.

  18. Dynamic origin-to-destination routing of wirelessly connected, autonomous vehicles on a congested network

    Davis, L. C.

    2017-07-01

    Up-to-date information wirelessly communicated among vehicles can be used to select the optimal route between a given origin and destination. To elucidate how to make use of such information, simulations are performed for autonomous vehicles traveling on a square lattice of roads. All the possible routes between the origin and the destination (without backtracking) are of the same length. Congestion is the only determinant of delay. At each intersection, right-of-way is given to the closest vehicle. There are no traffic lights. Trip times of a subject vehicle are recorded for various initial conditions using different routing algorithms. Surprisingly, the simplest algorithm, which is based on the total number of vehicles on a route, is as good as one based on computing travel times from the average velocity of vehicles on each road segment.

  19. An insight into airline dynamic pricing practices in emerging markets: Effects of low cost carriers' presence on routes from Belgrade 'Nikola Tesla' airport

    Ivanov Nikola V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic pricing and revenue management in airline industry have been the subject of research for more than twenty years now. Building upon that massive body of research, in this paper we investigate actual dynamic pricing patterns in new and emerging markets. We specifically focus on the impact that recent entry of low cost carriers on a number of routes from Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport might have had on pricing practices of legacy incumbents. Unlike with most of previous contributions in the field, we analyse the market characterised by relatively low frequencies and predominantly short-to-medium haul flights. In this paper, we observe and analyse pricing dynamics on two types of routes: routes where only legacy carriers operate and routes where legacy carriers face competition from low cost carriers. The effects of route competition on offered airline fares are estimated and conclusions derived.

  20. Combinatorial-topological framework for the analysis of global dynamics

    Bush, Justin; Gameiro, Marcio; Harker, Shaun; Kokubu, Hiroshi; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Obayashi, Ippei; Pilarczyk, Paweł

    2012-12-01

    We discuss an algorithmic framework based on efficient graph algorithms and algebraic-topological computational tools. The framework is aimed at automatic computation of a database of global dynamics of a given m-parameter semidynamical system with discrete time on a bounded subset of the n-dimensional phase space. We introduce the mathematical background, which is based upon Conley's topological approach to dynamics, describe the algorithms for the analysis of the dynamics using rectangular grids both in phase space and parameter space, and show two sample applications.

  1. Combinatorial-topological framework for the analysis of global dynamics.

    Bush, Justin; Gameiro, Marcio; Harker, Shaun; Kokubu, Hiroshi; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Obayashi, Ippei; Pilarczyk, Paweł

    2012-12-01

    We discuss an algorithmic framework based on efficient graph algorithms and algebraic-topological computational tools. The framework is aimed at automatic computation of a database of global dynamics of a given m-parameter semidynamical system with discrete time on a bounded subset of the n-dimensional phase space. We introduce the mathematical background, which is based upon Conley's topological approach to dynamics, describe the algorithms for the analysis of the dynamics using rectangular grids both in phase space and parameter space, and show two sample applications.

  2. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  3. The dynamics of the global competitiveness of Chinese industries

    Zhang, J.; Ebbers, H.; van Witteloostuijn, A.

    2013-01-01

    Using a two-dimensional multi-variable approach, this article investigates the competitiveness and dynamics of Chinese industries from the perspective of the international marketplace. The study reveals the step-by-step transformation of the degree of global competitiveness across 97 Chinese

  4. Soil organic matter dynamics and the global carbon cycle

    Post, W.M.; Emanuel, W.R.; King, A.W.

    1992-01-01

    The large size and potentially long residence time of the soil organic matter pool make it an important component of the global carbon cycle. Net terrestrial primary production of about 60 Pg C·yr -1 is, over a several-year period of time, balanced by an equivalent flux of litter production and subsequent decomposition of detritus and soil organic matter. We will review many of the major factors that influence soil organic matter dynamics that need to be explicitly considered in development of global estimates of carbon turnover in the world's soils. We will also discuss current decomposition models that are general enough to be used to develop a representation of global soil organic matter dynamics

  5. Augmenting static and dynamic mechanical strength of carbon nanotube/epoxy soft nanocomposites via modulation of purification and functionalization routes.

    Billing, Beant Kaur; Dhar, Purbarun; Singh, Narinder; Agnihotri, Prabhat K

    2018-01-03

    A detailed experimental investigation was carried out to establish the relationship between CNT purification and functionalization routes and the average response of CNT/epoxy nanocomposites under static and dynamic loading. It was shown that the relative improvement in the mechanical properties of the epoxy matrix due to the addition of CNTs depends on the choice of purification and functionalization steps. A better dispersion of CNTs was recorded for the functionalized CNTs as compared to the oxidized and CVD grown CNTs. Moreover, tensile, 3-point bending and nanoDMA testing performed on nanocomposites processed with CVD-grown, oxidized and functionalized CNTs revealed that COOH functionalization after the oxidation of CNTs at 350 °C is the optimized processing route to harness the excellent properties of CNTs in CNT/epoxy nanocomposites.

  6. Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

    McNally, B. David; Love, John

    2011-01-01

    The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today

  7. Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication

    Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.

    2012-12-01

    It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).

  8. Learning Human Actions by Combining Global Dynamics and Local Appearance.

    Luo, Guan; Yang, Shuang; Tian, Guodong; Yuan, Chunfeng; Hu, Weiming; Maybank, Stephen J

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we address the problem of human action recognition through combining global temporal dynamics and local visual spatio-temporal appearance features. For this purpose, in the global temporal dimension, we propose to model the motion dynamics with robust linear dynamical systems (LDSs) and use the model parameters as motion descriptors. Since LDSs live in a non-Euclidean space and the descriptors are in non-vector form, we propose a shift invariant subspace angles based distance to measure the similarity between LDSs. In the local visual dimension, we construct curved spatio-temporal cuboids along the trajectories of densely sampled feature points and describe them using histograms of oriented gradients (HOG). The distance between motion sequences is computed with the Chi-Squared histogram distance in the bag-of-words framework. Finally we perform classification using the maximum margin distance learning method by combining the global dynamic distances and the local visual distances. We evaluate our approach for action recognition on five short clips data sets, namely Weizmann, KTH, UCF sports, Hollywood2 and UCF50, as well as three long continuous data sets, namely VIRAT, ADL and CRIM13. We show competitive results as compared with current state-of-the-art methods.

  9. Dynamic Route Choice Modelling of the Effects of Travel Information using RP Data

    De Moraes Ramos, G.

    2015-01-01

    Traffic congestion is experienced by a great number of travellers during peak hours and is directly influenced by travel-related decisions, such as route choice decisions. In order to minimize problems that arise from congestion, such as delays, uncertainty and environmental effects, there has been

  10. GLOBAL STABILITY AND PERIODIC SOLUTION OF A VIRAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Erhan COŞKUN

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract:In this paper, we consider the classical viral dynamic mathematical model. Global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that, if the basic reproduction number, the HIV infection is cleared from the T-cell population; if , the HIV infection persists. For an open set of parameter values, the chronic-infection equilibrium can be unstable and periodic solutions may exist. We establish parameter regions for which is globally stable. Keywords: Global stability, HIV infection; CD4+ T cells; Periodic solution Mathematics Subject Classifications (2000: 65L10, 34B05 BİR VİRAL DİNAMİK MODELİN GLOBAL KARARLILIĞI VE PERİYODİK ÇÖZÜMÜ Özet: Bu makalede klasik viral dinamik modeli ele aldık. Modelin global dinamikleri oluşturuldu. Eğer temel üretim sayısı olur ise HIV enfeksiyonu T hücre nüfusundan çıkartılır, eğer olursa HIV enfeksiyonu çıkartılamaz. Parametre değerlerinin açık bir kümesi için kronik enfeksiyon dengesi kararsızdır ve periyodik çözüm oluşabilir. ın global kararlı olduğu parametre bölgeleri oluşturuldu. Anahtar Kelimeler: Global Kararlılık, HIV enfeksiyon, CD4+ T hücreler, Periyodik çözüm

  11. Strategic Airlift En Route Analysis to Support the Global War on Terrorism Using a Value Focused Thinking Approach

    Tharaldson, MaryKathryn W

    2006-01-01

    .... This research uses a "value focused" methodology to identify en-route airfield locations that simultaneously maximize cargo throughput capability while possessing a high degree of adaptability...

  12. A dynamic global and local combined particle swarm optimization algorithm

    Jiao Bin; Lian Zhigang; Chen Qunxian

    2009-01-01

    Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm has been developing rapidly and many results have been reported. PSO algorithm has shown some important advantages by providing high speed of convergence in specific problems, but it has a tendency to get stuck in a near optimal solution and one may find it difficult to improve solution accuracy by fine tuning. This paper presents a dynamic global and local combined particle swarm optimization (DGLCPSO) algorithm to improve the performance of original PSO, in which all particles dynamically share the best information of the local particle, global particle and group particles. It is tested with a set of eight benchmark functions with different dimensions and compared with original PSO. Experimental results indicate that the DGLCPSO algorithm improves the search performance on the benchmark functions significantly, and shows the effectiveness of the algorithm to solve optimization problems.

  13. The Dynamic Internationalization Model of Slovenian Born Global SMEs

    Ina Lejko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs are important businessactors in the Slovenian, as well as European economy. Inaddition to the current global market conditions, reflecting a severeeconomic downturn, the SMEs in Slovenia and other transitioneconomies operate under additional extensive external pressures,arising from the opening of their domestic markets. Undersuch conditions, companies, including SMEs, perceive internationalizationas an inevitable, or even urgent step in the processof their business operations. However, companies pursue differentpaths in their internationalization efforts, one of them beinga rapid internationalization strategy, denoted as the Born Globalconcept. In the paper, we explore the internationalization processof Slovenian Born Global SMEs. We employ an exploratory qualitativecase study analysis of selected Slovenian SMEs in order tograsp the key characteristics of their internationalization process.On the basis of the latter we construct a dynamic internationalizationmodel that might be used as a conceptual framework forempirical research of dynamic SMEs market behavior in Sloveniaand other transition countries.

  14. Theorems on Existence and Global Dynamics for the Einstein Equations

    Rendall Alan

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is a guide to theorems on existence and global dynamics of solutions ofthe Einstein equations. It draws attention to open questions in the field. The local-in-time Cauchy problem, which is relatively well understood, is surveyed. Global results for solutions with various types of symmetry are discussed. A selection of results from Newtonian theory and special relativity that offer useful comparisons is presented. Treatments of global results in the case of small data and results on constructing spacetimes with prescribed singularity structure are given. A conjectural picture of the asymptotic behaviour of general cosmological solutions of the Einstein equations is built up. Some miscellaneous topics connected with the main theme are collected in a separate section.

  15. Theorems on Existence and Global Dynamics for the Einstein Equations

    Rendall Alan D.

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available This article is a guide to theorems on existence and global dynamics of solutions of the Einstein equations. It draws attention to open questions in the field. The local-in-time Cauchy problem, which is relatively well understood, is surveyed. Global results for solutions with various types of symmetry are discussed. A selection of results from Newtonian theory and special relativity that offer useful comparisons is presented. Treatments of global results in the case of small data and results on constructing spacetimes with prescribed singularity structure or late-time asymptotics are given. A conjectural picture of the asymptotic behaviour of general cosmological solutions of the Einstein equations is built up. Some miscellaneous topics connected with the main theme are collected in a separate section.

  16. Safety-oriented global analysis of reactor dynamics

    Belhadj, M.; Aldemir, T.

    1992-01-01

    It is well known that the asymptotic solutions of the non-linear systems encountered in reactor dynamics can change from stable to periodic or from periodic to chaotic with a very small change in system parameters and/or initial conditions. In that respect, determination of the domains of attraction (DOAs) in the state-space that contains the asymptotic solutions and the identification of the basins of attraction (BOAs) and lead to these DOAs usually requires a global analysis of reactor dynamics (as opposed to a local analysis through perturbation theory). From the standpoint of safety, the DOAs indicate whether the reactor behavior remains within the imposed constraints or not, and the BOAs show which initial conditions lead to safe operation. Due to the lack of a general theory, often the only feasible method for the global analysis of nonlinear systems is the direct integration of governing equations. However, direct integration can be computationally prohibitive, particularly if there is uncertainty on the values of the system parameters to be used in the analysis, and/or asymptotic system behavior is chaotic. In a recent study, a global analysis algorithm was presented to determine the structure of DOAs (and their probability distribution when there is uncertainty on the system parameters) more quickly than by direct integration. This paper shows how the new algorithm can be expanded to determine the BOAs of reactor dynamics equations as well as their DOAs

  17. Routing Optimization of Intelligent Vehicle in Automated Warehouse

    Yan-cong Zhou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Routing optimization is a key technology in the intelligent warehouse logistics. In order to get an optimal route for warehouse intelligent vehicle, routing optimization in complex global dynamic environment is studied. A new evolutionary ant colony algorithm based on RFID and knowledge-refinement is proposed. The new algorithm gets environmental information timely through the RFID technology and updates the environment map at the same time. It adopts elite ant kept, fallback, and pheromones limitation adjustment strategy. The current optimal route in population space is optimized based on experiential knowledge. The experimental results show that the new algorithm has higher convergence speed and can jump out the U-type or V-type obstacle traps easily. It can also find the global optimal route or approximate optimal one with higher probability in the complex dynamic environment. The new algorithm is proved feasible and effective by simulation results.

  18. Intelligent routing protocol for ad hoc wireless network

    Peng, Chaorong; Chen, Chang Wen

    2006-05-01

    A novel routing scheme for mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), which combines hybrid and multi-inter-routing path properties with a distributed topology discovery route mechanism using control agents is proposed in this paper. In recent years, a variety of hybrid routing protocols for Mobile Ad hoc wireless networks (MANETs) have been developed. Which is proactively maintains routing information for a local neighborhood, while reactively acquiring routes to destinations beyond the global. The hybrid protocol reduces routing discovery latency and the end-to-end delay by providing high connectivity without requiring much of the scarce network capacity. On the other side the hybrid routing protocols in MANETs likes Zone Routing Protocol still need route "re-discover" time when a route between zones link break. Sine the topology update information needs to be broadcast routing request on local zone. Due to this delay, the routing protocol may not be applicable for real-time data and multimedia communication. We utilize the advantages of a clustering organization and multi-routing path in routing protocol to achieve several goals at the same time. Firstly, IRP efficiently saves network bandwidth and reduces route reconstruction time when a routing path fails. The IRP protocol does not require global periodic routing advertisements, local control agents will automatically monitor and repair broke links. Secondly, it efficiently reduces congestion and traffic "bottlenecks" for ClusterHeads in clustering network. Thirdly, it reduces significant overheads associated with maintaining clusters. Fourthly, it improves clusters stability due to dynamic topology changing frequently. In this paper, we present the Intelligent Routing Protocol. First, we discuss the problem of routing in ad hoc networks and the motivation of IRP. We describe the hierarchical architecture of IRP. We describe the routing process and illustrate it with an example. Further, we describe the control manage

  19. Two Chaotic Patterns of Dynamic Risk Definition for Solving Hazardous Materials Routing Problem

    Abbas Mahmoudabadi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the case of determining routes for hazardous material transportation, risk is considered as a main attribute. Transport risk, which is usually combined with other attributes such as cost or travel time, plays a significant role in determining paths for hazardous materials transportation. Since, risk is chaotically affected by road incidents, decision makers are dealing with selecting a method for defining chaotic risk factors in hazmat transportation. In this paper, transport risk has been defined as a chaotic variable using two different methods of generating chaotic patterns. In an experimental road network, which consists of eighty-nine nodes and one hundred and one two-way links, two different methods of generating chaotic variables have been used for applying the proposed procedure. In addition, results for different amounts of risk and cost have also been analyzed in case study. Results revealed that different cost and risk priorities change the frequencies of selected paths determined for hazmat transportation, but the route convergence of the route to chaos method is better than that of the logistic map equation.

  20. Dynamics in stationary, non-globally hyperbolic spacetimes

    Seggev, Itai [Enrico Fermi Institute and Department of Physics, University of Chicago, 5640 S Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2004-06-07

    Classically, the dynamics of a scalar field in a non-globally hyperbolic spacetime is ill-posed. Previously, a prescription was given for defining dynamics in static spacetimes in terms of a second-order operator acting on a Hilbert space defined on static slices. The present work extends this result by giving a similar prescription for defining dynamics in stationary spacetimes obeying certain mild assumptions. The prescription is defined in terms of a first-order operator acting on a different Hilbert space from that used in the static prescription. It preserves the important properties of the earlier prescription: the formal solution agrees with the Cauchy evolution within the domain of dependence, and smooth data of compact support always give rise to smooth solutions. In the static case, the first-order formalism agrees with the second-order formalism (using specifically the Friedrichs extension). Applications to field quantization are also discussed.

  1. Global workspace dynamics: Cortical "binding and propagation enables conscious contents.

    Bernard J Baars

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A global workspace is a hub of binding and propagation in a population of loosely coupled signaling elements. Global workspace (GW architectures recruit many distributed, specialized agents to help resolve focal ambiguities. In the brain, conscious experiences may reflect a global workspace function. For animals the natural world is full of fitness-related ambiguities, suggesting a general adaptive pressure for brains to resolve focal ambiguities quickly and accurately. In humans and related species the cortico-thalamic (C-T core is believed to underlie conscious aspects of perception, thinking, learning, feelings of knowing, emotions, imagery, working memory and executive control. The C-T core has many anatomical hubs, but conscious percepts are unitary and internally consistent at any given moment. The repertoire of conscious contents is a large, open set. These points suggest that a brain-based GW capacity cannot be localized in a single anatomical hub. Rather, it should be sought in a dynamic capacity for adaptive binding and propagation of neural signals over multi-hub networks. We refer to this as dynamic global workspace theory (dGW. In this view, conscious contents can arise in any region of the C-T core when multiple signal streams settle on a winner-take-all equilibrium. The resulting bound gestalt may ignite an any-to-many broadcast, lasting ~100-200 ms, and trigger widespread adaptation in established networks. Binding and broadcasting may involve theta/gamma or alpha/gamma phase coupling. Conscious contents (qualia may reflect their sources in cortex. Sensory percepts may bind and broadcast from posterior regions, while non-sensory feelings of knowing (FOKs may be frontotemporal. The small focal capacity of conscious contents may be the biological price to pay for global access. We propose that in the intact brain the hippocampal/rhinal complex may support conscious event organization as well as episodic memory coding.

  2. GLOBEC: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: A component of the US Global Change Research Program

    1991-01-01

    GLOBEC (GLOBal ocean ECosystems dynamics) is a research initiative proposed by the oceanographic and fisheries communities to address the question of how changes in global environment are expected to affect the abundance and production of animals in the sea. The approach to this problem is to develop a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that determine both the abundance of key marine animal populations and their variances in space and time. The assumption is that the physical environment is a major contributor to patterns of abundance and production of marine animals, in large part because the planktonic life stages typical of most marine animals are intrinsically at the mercy of the fluid motions of the medium in which they live. Consequently, the authors reason that a logical approach to predicting the potential impact of a globally changing environment is to understand how the physical environment, both directly and indirectly, contributes to animal abundance and its variability in marine ecosystems. The plans for this coordinated study of of the potential impact of global change on ocean ecosystems dynamics are discussed.

  3. Global investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes

    Xu, Tiantian

    2016-11-17

    Understanding the complex nonlinear dynamics of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is essential to enable utilization of these structures in devices and practical applications. We present in this work an investigation of the global nonlinear dynamics of a slacked CNT when actuated by large electrostatic and electrodynamic excitations. The coexistence of several attractors is observed. The CNT is modeled as an Euler–Bernoulli beam. A reduced-order model based on the Galerkin method is developed and utilized to simulate the static and dynamic responses. Critical computational challenges are posed due to the complicated form of the electrostatic force, which describes the interaction between the upper electrode, consisting of the cylindrically shaped CNT, and the lower electrode. Toward this, we approximate the electrostatic force using the Padé expansion. We explore the dynamics near the primary and superharmonic resonances. The nanostructure exhibits several attractors with different characteristics. To achieve deep insight and describe the complexity and richness of the behavior, we analyze the nonlinear response from an attractor-basins point of view. The competition of attractors is highlighted. Compactness and/or fractality of their basins are discussed. Both the effects of varying the excitation frequency and amplitude are examined up to the dynamic pull-in instability.

  4. Global Dynamic Numerical Simulations of Plate Tectonic Reorganizations

    Morra, G.; Quevedo, L.; Butterworth, N.; Matthews, K. J.; Müller, D.

    2010-12-01

    We use a new numerical approach for global geodynamics to investigate the origin of present global plate motion and to identify the causes of the last two global tectonic reorganizations occurred about 50 and 100 million years ago (Ma) [1]. While the 50 Ma event is the most well-known global plate-mantle event, expressed by the bend in the Hawaiian-Emperor volcanic chain, a prominent plate reorganization at about 100 Ma, although presently little studied, is clearly indicated by a major bend in the fracture zones in the Indian Ocean and by a change in Pacific plate motion [2]. Our workflow involves turning plate reconstructions into surface meshes that are subsequently employed as initial conditions for global Boundary Element numerical models. The tectonic setting that anticipates the reorganizations is processed with the software GPlates, combining the 3D mesh of the paleo-plate morphology and the reconstruction of paleo-subducted slabs, elaborated from tectonic history [3]. All our models involve the entire planetary system, are fully dynamic, have free surface, are characterized by a spectacular computational speed due to the simultaneous use of the multi-pole algorithm and the Boundary Element formulation and are limited only by the use of sharp material property variations [4]. We employ this new tool to unravel the causes of plate tectonic reorganizations, producing and comparing global plate motion with the reconstructed ones. References: [1] Torsvik, T., Müller, R.D., Van der Voo, R., Steinberger, B., and Gaina, C., 2008, Global Plate Motion Frames: Toward a unified model: Reviews in Geophysics, VOL. 46, RG3004, 44 PP., 2008 [2] Wessel, P. and Kroenke, L.W. Pacific absolute plate motion since 145 Ma: An assessment of the fixed hot spot hypothesis. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol 113, B06101, 2008 [3] L. Quevedo, G. Morra, R. D. Mueller. Parallel Fast Multipole Boundary Element Method for Crustal Dynamics, Proceeding 9th World Congress and 4th Asian

  5. Assessing the long-term impact of subsidence and global climate change on emergency evacuation routes in coastal Louisiana.

    2012-12-01

    Subsidence forecast models for coastal Louisiana were developed to estimate the change in surface elevations of evacuation routes for the years 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2100. Geophysical and anthropogenic subsidence estimates were derived from on-going ...

  6. Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to complex dynamics in asset pricing models with price contingent contracts

    Brock, W.A.; Hommes, C.H.

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses dynamic evolutionary multi-agent systems, as introduced by Brock and Hommes (1997). In particular the heterogeneous agent dynamic asset pricing model of Brock and Hommes (1998) is extended by introducing derivative securities by means of price contingent contracts. Numerical

  7. Observation of Wetland Dynamics with Global Navigation Satellite Signals Reflectometry

    Zuffada, C.; Shah, R.; Nghiem, S. V.; Cardellach, E.; Chew, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    Wetland dynamics is crucial to changes in both atmospheric methane and terrestrial water storage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) highlights the role of wetlands as a key driver of methane (CH4) emission, which is more than one order of magnitude stronger than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas in the centennial time scale. Among the multitude of methane emission sources (hydrates, livestock, rice cultivation, freshwaters, landfills and waste, fossil fuels, biomass burning, termites, geological sources, and soil oxidation), wetlands constitute the largest contributor with the widest uncertainty range of 177-284 Tg(CH4) yr-1 according to the IPCC estimate. Wetlands are highly susceptible to climate change that might lead to wetland collapse. Such wetland destruction would decrease the terrestrial water storage capacity and thus contribute to sea level rise, consequently exacerbating coastal flooding problems. For both methane change and water storage change, wetland dynamics is a crucial factor with the largest uncertainty. Nevertheless, a complete and consistent map of global wetlands still needs to be obtained as the Ramsar Convention calls for a wetlands inventory and impact assessment. We develop a new method for observations of wetland change using Global Navigation Satellite Signals Reflectometry (GNSS-R) signatures for global wetland mapping in synergy with the existing capability, not only as a static inventory but also as a temporal dataset, to advance the capability for monitoring the dynamics of wetland extent relevant to addressing the science issues of CH4 emission change and terrestrial water storage change. We will demonstrate the capability of the new GNSS-R method over a rice field in the Ebro Delta wetland in Spain.

  8. Solar atmosphere wave dynamics generated by solar global oscillating eigenmodes

    Griffiths, M. K.; Fedun, V.; Erdélyi, R.; Zheng, R.

    2018-01-01

    The solar atmosphere exhibits a diverse range of wave phenomena, where one of the earliest discovered was the five-minute global acoustic oscillation, also referred to as the p-mode. The analysis of wave propagation in the solar atmosphere may be used as a diagnostic tool to estimate accurately the physical characteristics of the Sun's atmospheric layers. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics and upward propagation of waves which are generated by the solar global eigenmodes. We report on a series of hydrodynamic simulations of a realistically stratified model of the solar atmosphere representing its lower region from the photosphere to low corona. With the objective of modelling atmospheric perturbations, propagating from the photosphere into the chromosphere, transition region and low corona, generated by the photospheric global oscillations the simulations use photospheric drivers mimicking the solar p-modes. The drivers are spatially structured harmonics across the computational box parallel to the solar surface. The drivers perturb the atmosphere at 0.5 Mm above the bottom boundary of the model and are placed coincident with the location of the temperature minimum. A combination of the VALIIIC and McWhirter solar atmospheres are used as the background equilibrium model. We report how synthetic photospheric oscillations may manifest in a magnetic field free model of the quiet Sun. To carry out the simulations, we employed the magnetohydrodynamics code, SMAUG (Sheffield MHD Accelerated Using GPUs). Our results show that the amount of energy propagating into the solar atmosphere is consistent with a model of solar global oscillations described by Taroyan and Erdélyi (2008) using the Klein-Gordon equation. The computed results indicate a power law which is compared to observations reported by Ireland et al. (2015) using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly.

  9. Dynamics of the youth travel market on a global level

    Timea DEMETER

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The segment of young tourists has been considered a niche market and was treated as a branch of the tourism industry. In the past 10 years, however, its market value has began to increase significantly bringing real benefits to the companies adapting to this segment by developing appropriate strategies and policies. Therefore, the aim of this project is to analyse the dynamics of the youth travel market, on a global level, taking into consideration the international youth arrivals, youth accommodation units and the behavioural habits of young tourists, serving as a starting point in the strategy development process.

  10. The self-consistent dynamic pole tide in global oceans

    Dickman, S. R.

    1985-01-01

    The dynamic pole tide is characterized in a self-consistent manner by means of introducing a single nondifferential matrix equation compatible with the Liouville equation, modelling the ocean as global and of uniform depth. The deviations of the theory from the realistic ocean, associated with the nonglobality of the latter, are also given consideration, with an inference that in realistic oceans long-period modes of resonances would be increasingly likely to exist. The analysis of the nature of the pole tide and its effects on the Chandler wobble indicate that departures of the pole tide from the equilibrium may indeed be minimal.

  11. Coldspots and hotspots - Global tectonics and mantle dynamics of Venus

    Bindschadler, Duane L.; Schubert, Gerald; Kaula, William M.

    1992-01-01

    Based on geologic observations provided by Magellan's first cycle of data collection and recent models of mantle convection in spherical shells and crustal deformation, the major topographic and geologic features of Venus are incorporated into a model of global mantle dynamics. Consideration is given to volcanic rises, such as Beta Regio and Atla Regio, plateau-shaped highlands dominated by complex ridged terrain (e.g., Ovda Regio and Alpha Regio), and circular lowland regions, such as Atalanta Planitia. Each of these features is related to either mantle plumes (hotspots) or mantle downwellings (coldspots).

  12. Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and earth system processes

    Zhang, Taiping; Verbitsky, Mikhail; Saltzman, Barry; Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey; Lall, Upmanu

    1995-01-01

    During the grant period, the authors continued ongoing studies aimed at enhancing their understanding of the operation of the atmosphere as a complex nonlinear system interacting with the hydrosphere, biosphere, and cryosphere in response to external radiative forcing. Five papers were completed with support from the grant, representing contributions in three main areas of study: (1) theoretical studies of the interactive atmospheric response to changed biospheric boundary conditions measurable from satellites; (2) statistical-observational studies of global-scale temperature variability on interannual to century time scales; and (3) dynamics of long-term earth system changes associated with ice sheet surges.

  13. Dynamics beyond uniform hyperbolicity a global geometric and probabilistic perspective

    Bonatti, Christian; Viana, Marcelo

    2005-01-01

    The notion of uniform hyperbolicity, introduced by Steve Smale in the early sixties, unified important developments and led to a remarkably successful theory for a large class of systems: uniformly hyperbolic systems often exhibit complicated evolution which, nevertheless, is now rather well understood, both geometrically and statistically.Another revolution has been taking place in the last couple of decades, as one tries to build a global theory for "most" dynamical systems, recovering as much as possible of the conclusions of the uniformly hyperbolic case, in great generality. This book aims to put such recent developments in a unified perspective, and to point out open problems and likely directions for further progress. It is aimed at researchers, both young and senior, willing to get a quick, yet broad, view of this part of dynamics. Main ideas, methods, and results are discussed, at variable degrees of depth, with references to the original works for details and complementary information.

  14. Global genetic response in a cancer cell: self-organized coherent expression dynamics.

    Masa Tsuchiya

    Full Text Available Understanding the basic mechanism of the spatio-temporal self-control of genome-wide gene expression engaged with the complex epigenetic molecular assembly is one of major challenges in current biological science. In this study, the genome-wide dynamical profile of gene expression was analyzed for MCF-7 breast cancer cells induced by two distinct ErbB receptor ligands: epidermal growth factor (EGF and heregulin (HRG, which drive cell proliferation and differentiation, respectively. We focused our attention to elucidate how global genetic responses emerge and to decipher what is an underlying principle for dynamic self-control of genome-wide gene expression. The whole mRNA expression was classified into about a hundred groups according to the root mean square fluctuation (rmsf. These expression groups showed characteristic time-dependent correlations, indicating the existence of collective behaviors on the ensemble of genes with respect to mRNA expression and also to temporal changes in expression. All-or-none responses were observed for HRG and EGF (biphasic statistics at around 10-20 min. The emergence of time-dependent collective behaviors of expression occurred through bifurcation of a coherent expression state (CES. In the ensemble of mRNA expression, the self-organized CESs reveals distinct characteristic expression domains for biphasic statistics, which exhibits notably the presence of criticality in the expression profile as a route for genomic transition. In time-dependent changes in the expression domains, the dynamics of CES reveals that the temporal development of the characteristic domains is characterized as autonomous bistable switch, which exhibits dynamic criticality (the temporal development of criticality in the genome-wide coherent expression dynamics. It is expected that elucidation of the biophysical origin for such critical behavior sheds light on the underlying mechanism of the control of whole genome.

  15. Routes to chaos in continuous mechanical systems: Part 2. Modelling transitions from regular to chaotic dynamics

    Krysko, A.V.; Awrejcewicz, J.; Papkova, I.V.; Krysko, V.A.

    2012-01-01

    In second part of the paper both classical and novel scenarios of transition from regular to chaotic dynamics of dissipative continuous mechanical systems are studied. A detailed analysis allowed us to detect the already known classical scenarios of transition from periodic to chaotic dynamics, and in particular the Feigenbaum scenario. The Feigenbaum constant was computed for all continuous mechanical objects studied in the first part of the paper. In addition, we illustrate and discuss different and novel scenarios of transition of the analysed systems from regular to chaotic dynamics, and we show that the type of scenario depends essentially on excitation parameters.

  16. Dynamic Routing of Aircraft in the Presence of Adverse Weather Using a POMDP Framework

    Balaban, Edward; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Spirkovska, Lilly; Sankararaman, Shankar; Kulkarni, Chetan; Arnon, Tomer

    2017-01-01

    Each year weather-related airline delays result in hundreds of millions of dollars in additional fuel burn, maintenance, and lost revenue, not to mention passenger inconvenience. The current approaches for aircraft route planning in the presence of adverse weather still mainly rely on deterministic methods. In contrast, this work aims to deal with the problem using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) framework, which allows for reasoning over uncertainty (including uncertainty in weather evolution over time) and results in solutions that are more robust to disruptions. The POMDP-based decision support system is demonstrated on several scenarios involving convective weather cells and is benchmarked against a deterministic planning system with functionality similar to those currently in use or under development.

  17. Dynamic Request Routing for Online Video-on-Demand Service: A Markov Decision Process Approach

    Jianxiong Wan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the request routing problem in the CDN-based Video-on-Demand system. We model the system as a controlled queueing system including a dispatcher and several edge servers. The system is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP. Since the MDP formulation suffers from the so-called “the curse of dimensionality” problem, we then develop a greedy heuristic algorithm, which is simple and can be implemented online, to approximately solve the MDP model. However, we do not know how far it deviates from the optimal solution. To address this problem, we further aggregate the state space of the original MDP model and use the bounded-parameter MDP (BMDP to reformulate the system. This allows us to obtain a suboptimal solution with a known performance bound. The effectiveness of two approaches is evaluated in a simulation study.

  18. Using Approximate Dynamic Programming to Solve the Military Inventory Routing Problem with Direct Delivery

    2015-03-26

    Appendix C. Computational Example: 3-COP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Appendix D. Storyboard ...COP myopic policy. 105 Appendix D. Storyboard 106 Bibliography 1. Barnes-Schuster, Dawn, & Bassok, Yehuda. 1997. Direct shipping and the dynamic

  19. The influence of globalization on medical regulation: a descriptive analysis of international medical graduates registered through alternative licensure routes in Ontario

    Wendy Yen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing globalization of the medical profession has influenced health policy, health human resource planning, and medical regulation in Canada. Since the early 2000s, numerous policy initiatives have been created to facilitate the entry of international medical graduates (IMGs into the Canadian workforce. In Ontario, the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO developed alternative licensure routes to increase the ability of qualified IMGs to obtain licenses to practice. The current study provides demographic and descriptive information about the IMGs registered through the CPSO’s alternative licensure routes between 2000 and 2012. An analysis of the characteristics and career trajectories of all IMGs practicing in the province sheds light on broader globalization trends and raises questions about the future of health human resource planning in Canada. As the medical profession becomes increasingly globalized, health policy and regulation will continue to be influenced by trends in international migration, concerns about global health equity, and the shifting demographics of the Canadian physician workforce. Implications for future policy development in the complex landscape of medical education and practice are discussed.

  20. The influence of globalization on medical regulation: a descriptive analysis of international medical graduates registered through alternative licensure routes in Ontario

    Yen, Wendy; Hodwitz, Kathryn; Thakkar, Niels; Martimianakis, Maria Athina (Tina); Faulkner, Dan

    2016-01-01

    The increasing globalization of the medical profession has influenced health policy, health human resource planning, and medical regulation in Canada. Since the early 2000s, numerous policy initiatives have been created to facilitate the entry of international medical graduates (IMGs) into the Canadian workforce. In Ontario, the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO) developed alternative licensure routes to increase the ability of qualified IMGs to obtain licenses to practice. The current study provides demographic and descriptive information about the IMGs registered through the CPSO’s alternative licensure routes between 2000 and 2012. An analysis of the characteristics and career trajectories of all IMGs practicing in the province sheds light on broader globalization trends and raises questions about the future of health human resource planning in Canada. As the medical profession becomes increasingly globalized, health policy and regulation will continue to be influenced by trends in international migration, concerns about global health equity, and the shifting demographics of the Canadian physician workforce. Implications for future policy development in the complex landscape of medical education and practice are discussed. PMID:28344705

  1. The influence of globalization on medical regulation: a descriptive analysis of international medical graduates registered through alternative licensure routes in Ontario.

    Yen, Wendy; Hodwitz, Kathryn; Thakkar, Niels; Martimianakis, Maria Athina Tina; Faulkner, Dan

    2016-12-01

    The increasing globalization of the medical profession has influenced health policy, health human resource planning, and medical regulation in Canada. Since the early 2000s, numerous policy initiatives have been created to facilitate the entry of international medical graduates (IMGs) into the Canadian workforce. In Ontario, the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO) developed alternative licensure routes to increase the ability of qualified IMGs to obtain licenses to practice. The current study provides demographic and descriptive information about the IMGs registered through the CPSO's alternative licensure routes between 2000 and 2012. An analysis of the characteristics and career trajectories of all IMGs practicing in the province sheds light on broader globalization trends and raises questions about the future of health human resource planning in Canada. As the medical profession becomes increasingly globalized, health policy and regulation will continue to be influenced by trends in international migration, concerns about global health equity, and the shifting demographics of the Canadian physician workforce. Implications for future policy development in the complex landscape of medical education and practice are discussed.

  2. The global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture

    McColl, Kaighin A.; Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed; Akbar, Ruzbeh; Konings, Alexandra G.; Yueh, Simon; Entekhabi, Dara

    2017-01-01

    Surface soil moisture has a direct impact on food security, human health and ecosystem function. It also plays a key role in the climate system, and the development and persistence of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heatwaves. However, sparse and uneven observations have made it difficult to quantify the global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture. Here we introduce a metric of soil moisture memory and use a full year of global observations from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission to show that surface soil moisture--a storage believed to make up less than 0.001% of the global freshwater budget by volume, and equivalent to an, on average, 8-mm thin layer of water covering all land surfaces--plays a significant role in the water cycle. Specifically, we find that surface soil moisture retains a median 14% of precipitation falling on land after three days. Furthermore, the retained fraction of the surface soil moisture storage after three days is highest over arid regions, and in regions where drainage to groundwater storage is lowest. We conclude that lower groundwater storage in these regions is due not only to lower precipitation, but also to the complex partitioning of the water cycle by the surface soil moisture storage layer at the land surface.

  3. The global distribution and dynamics of chromophoric dissolved organic matter.

    Nelson, Norman B; Siegel, David A

    2013-01-01

    Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is a ubiquitous component of the open ocean dissolved matter pool, and is important owing to its influence on the optical properties of the water column, its role in photochemistry and photobiology, and its utility as a tracer of deep ocean biogeochemical processes and circulation. In this review, we discuss the global distribution and dynamics of CDOM in the ocean, concentrating on developments in the past 10 years and restricting our discussion to open ocean and deep ocean (below the main thermocline) environments. CDOM has been demonstrated to exert primary control on ocean color by its absorption of light energy, which matches or exceeds that of phytoplankton pigments in most cases. This has important implications for assessing the ocean biosphere via ocean color-based remote sensing and the evaluation of ocean photochemical and photobiological processes. The general distribution of CDOM in the global ocean is controlled by a balance between production (primarily microbial remineralization of organic matter) and photolysis, with vertical ventilation circulation playing an important role in transporting CDOM to and from intermediate water masses. Significant decadal-scale fluctuations in the abundance of global surface ocean CDOM have been observed using remote sensing, indicating a potentially important role for CDOM in ocean-climate connections through its impact on photochemistry and photobiology.

  4. Global structure of exact scalar hairy dynamical black holes

    Fan, Zhong-Ying [Center for High Energy Physics, Peking University,No. 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing, 100871 P.R. (China); Chen, Bin [Center for High Energy Physics, Peking University,No. 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing, 100871 P.R. (China); Department of Physics and State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology,Peking University, No. 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing, 100871 P.R. (China); Collaborative Innovation Center of Quantum Matter,No. 5 Yiheyuan Rd, Beijing, 100871 P.R. (China); Lü, H. [Center for Advanced Quantum Studies, Department of Physics, Beijing Normal University,Beijing, 100875 P.R. (China)

    2016-05-30

    We study the global structure of some exact scalar hairy dynamical black holes which were constructed in Einstein gravity either minimally or non-minimally coupled to a scalar field. We find that both the apparent horizon and the local event horizon (measured in luminosity coordinate) monotonically increase with the advanced time as well as the Vaidya mass. At late advanced times, the apparent horizon approaches the event horizon and gradually becomes future outer. Correspondingly, the space-time arrives at stationary black hole states with the relaxation time inversely proportional to the 1/(n−1) power of the final black hole mass, where n is the space-time dimension. These results strongly support the solutions describing the formation of black holes with scalar hair. We also obtain new charged dynamical solutions in the non-minimal theory by introducing an Maxwell field which is non-minimally coupled to the scalar. The presence of the electric charge strongly modifies the dynamical evolution of the space-time.

  5. Cross-covariance based global dynamic sensitivity analysis

    Shi, Yan; Lu, Zhenzhou; Li, Zhao; Wu, Mengmeng

    2018-02-01

    For identifying the cross-covariance source of dynamic output at each time instant for structural system involving both input random variables and stochastic processes, a global dynamic sensitivity (GDS) technique is proposed. The GDS considers the effect of time history inputs on the dynamic output. In the GDS, the cross-covariance decomposition is firstly developed to measure the contribution of the inputs to the output at different time instant, and an integration of the cross-covariance change over the specific time interval is employed to measure the whole contribution of the input to the cross-covariance of output. Then, the GDS main effect indices and the GDS total effect indices can be easily defined after the integration, and they are effective in identifying the important inputs and the non-influential inputs on the cross-covariance of output at each time instant, respectively. The established GDS analysis model has the same form with the classical ANOVA when it degenerates to the static case. After degeneration, the first order partial effect can reflect the individual effects of inputs to the output variance, and the second order partial effect can reflect the interaction effects to the output variance, which illustrates the consistency of the proposed GDS indices and the classical variance-based sensitivity indices. The MCS procedure and the Kriging surrogate method are developed to solve the proposed GDS indices. Several examples are introduced to illustrate the significance of the proposed GDS analysis technique and the effectiveness of the proposed solution.

  6. Using dynamical downscaling to close the gap between global change scenarios and local permafrost dynamics

    Stendel, Martin; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2007-01-01

    Even though we can estimate the zonation of present-day permafrost from deep-soil temperatures obtained from global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by accounting for heat conduction in the frozen soil, it is impossible to explicitly resolve soil properties, vegetation......, in particular in mountainous regions. By using global climate change scenarios as driving fields, one can obtain permafrost dynamics in high temporal resolution on the order of years. For the 21st century under the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, we find an increase of mean annual ground temperature by up to 6 K...

  7. Toward personalised and dynamic cultural routing: a three-level approach

    Aksenov, P.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Arentze, T.A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of “smart routing” as a recommender system for tourists that takes into account the dynamics of their personal user profiles. The concept relies on three levels of support: 1) programming the tour, i.e. selecting a set of relevant points of interests (POIs) to be

  8. Reducing the Amount of Data for Creating Routes in a Dynamic DTN via Wi-Fi on the Basis of Static Data

    Yulia Shichkina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the results of research on the acceleration of data processing in the construction routing in dynamic DTN, realized through the devices established in moving objects and connected by means of Wi-Fi. The routes are constructed based on the prehistory of the movement of objects, which is stored in the database in the csv format. This database has a large volume and contains unnecessary and incorrect information. The article shows the possibility of speeding up the process of constructing routes using data precleaning. Reducing data volume is proposed by constructing an enlarged grid on the object movement map. This article also demonstrates the use of fuzzy logic and graph theory for constructing routes.

  9. Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    S. J. Murray

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Global freshwater resources are sensitive to changes in climate, land cover and population density and distribution. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is a recent development of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model with improved representation of fire-vegetation interactions. It allows simultaneous consideration of the effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration, natural vegetation and fire regime shifts on the continental hydrological cycle. Here the model is assessed for its ability to simulate large-scale spatial and temporal runoff patterns, in order to test its suitability for modelling future global water resources. Comparisons are made against observations of streamflow and a composite dataset of modelled and observed runoff (1986–1995 and are also evaluated against soil moisture data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model captures the main features of the geographical distribution of global runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff in much of the Northern Hemisphere (where this can be somewhat accounted for by freshwater consumption and the unrealistic accumulation of the simulated winter snowpack in permafrost regions and the southern tropics. Interannual variability is represented reasonably well at the large catchment scale, as are seasonal flow timings and monthly high and low flow events. Further improvements to the simulation of intra-annual runoff might be achieved via the addition of river flow routing. Overestimates of runoff in some basins could likely be corrected by the inclusion of transmission losses and direct-channel evaporation.

  10. Facile Route to Vertically Aligned High-Aspect Ratio Block Copolymer Films via Dynamic Zone Annealing

    Singh, Gurpreet; Kulkarni, Manish; Yager, Kevin; Smilgies, Detlef; Bucknall, David; Karim, Alamgir

    2012-02-01

    Directed assembly of block copolymers (BCP) can be used to fabricate a diversity of nanostructures useful for nanotech applications. The ability to vertically orient etchable high aspect ratio (˜30) ordered BCP domains on flexible substrates via continuous processing methods are particularly attractive for nanomanufacturing. We apply sharp dynamic cold zone annealing (CZA-S) to create etchable, and predominantly vertically oriented 30nm cylindrical domains in 1 μm thick poly(styrene-b-methylmethacrylate) films on low thermal conductivity rigid (quartz) and flexible (PDMS & Kapton) substrates. Under similar static conditions, temporally stable vertical cylinders form within a narrow zone above a critical temperature gradient. Primary ordering mechanism of CZA-S involves sweeping this vertically orienting zone created at maximum thermal gradient. An optimal speed is needed since the process competes with preferential surface wetting dynamics that favors parallel orientation. GISAXS of etched BCP films confirms internal morphology.

  11. The excitonic insulator route through a dynamical phase transition induced by an optical pulse

    Brazovskii, S., E-mail: brazov@lptms.u-psud.fr [Université Paris-Saclay, LPTMS, CNRS, Univ. Paris-sud (France); Kirova, N. [Université Paris-Saclay, LPS, CNRS, Univ. Paris-sud (France)

    2016-03-15

    We consider a dynamical phase transition induced by a short optical pulse in a system prone to thermodynamical instability. We address the case of pumping to excitons whose density contributes directly to the order parameter. To describe both thermodynamic and dynamic effects on equal footing, we adopt a view of the excitonic insulator for the phase transition and suggest a formation of the Bose condensate for the pumped excitons. The work is motivated by experiments in donor–acceptor organic compounds with a neutral- ionic phase transition coupled to the spontaneous lattice dimerization and to charge transfer excitons. The double nature of the ensemble of excitons leads to an intricate time evolution, in particular, to macroscopic quantum oscillations from the interference between the Bose condensate of excitons and the ground state of the excitonic insulator. The coupling of excitons and the order parameter also leads to self-trapping of their wave function, akin to self-focusing in optics. The locally enhanced density of excitons can surpass a critical value to trigger the phase transformation, even if the mean density is below the required threshold. The system is stratified in domains that evolve through dynamical phase transitions and sequences of merging. The new circumstances in experiments and theory bring to life, once again, some remarkable inventions made by L.V. Keldysh.

  12. Signal classification using global dynamical models, Part I: Theory

    Kadtke, J.; Kremliovsky, M.

    1996-01-01

    Detection and classification of signals is one of the principal areas of signal processing, and the utilization of nonlinear information has long been considered as a way of improving performance beyond standard linear (e.g. spectral) techniques. Here, we develop a method for using global models of chaotic dynamical systems theory to define a signal classification processing chain, which is sensitive to nonlinear correlations in the data. We use it to demonstrate classification in high noise regimes (negative SNR), and argue that classification probabilities can be directly computed from ensemble statistics in the model coefficient space. We also develop a modification for non-stationary signals (i.e. transients) using non-autonomous ODEs. In Part II of this paper, we demonstrate the analysis on actual open ocean acoustic data from marine biologics. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  13. DEGAS: Dynamic Exascale Global Address Space Programming Environments

    Demmel, James [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2018-02-23

    The Dynamic, Exascale Global Address Space programming environment (DEGAS) project will develop the next generation of programming models and runtime systems to meet the challenges of Exascale computing. The Berkeley part of the project concentrated on communication-optimal code generation to optimize speed and energy efficiency by reducing data movement. Our work developed communication lower bounds, and/or communication avoiding algorithms (that either meet the lower bound, or do much less communication than their conventional counterparts) for a variety of algorithms, including linear algebra, machine learning and genomics. The Berkeley part of the project concentrated on communication-optimal code generation to optimize speed and energy efficiency by reducing data movement. Our work developed communication lower bounds, and/or communication avoiding algorithms (that either meet the lower bound, or do much less communication than their conventional counterparts) for a variety of algorithms, including linear algebra, machine learning and genomics.

  14. Global optimization for quantum dynamics of few-fermion systems

    Li, Xikun; Pecak, Daniel; Sowiński, Tomasz; Sherson, Jacob; Nielsen, Anne E. B.

    2018-03-01

    Quantum state preparation is vital to quantum computation and quantum information processing tasks. In adiabatic state preparation, the target state is theoretically obtained with nearly perfect fidelity if the control parameter is tuned slowly enough. As this, however, leads to slow dynamics, it is often desirable to be able to carry out processes more rapidly. In this work, we employ two global optimization methods to estimate the quantum speed limit for few-fermion systems confined in a one-dimensional harmonic trap. Such systems can be produced experimentally in a well-controlled manner. We determine the optimized control fields and achieve a reduction in the ramping time of more than a factor of four compared to linear ramping. We also investigate how robust the fidelity is to small variations of the control fields away from the optimized shapes.

  15. Global auroral imaging instrumentation for the dynamics explorer mission

    Frank, L.A.; Craven, J.D.; Ackerson, K.L.; English, M.R.; Eather, R.H.; Carovillano, R.L.

    1981-01-01

    The instrumentation for gaining global images of the auroral oval from the high-altitude spacecraft of the Dynamics Explorer Mission is described. Three spin-scan auroral imaging (SAI) photometers are expected to be able to effectively view the dim emissions from earth in the presence of strong stray light sources near their fields-of-view along the sunlit portion of the spacecraft orbit. A special optical design which includes an off-axis parabolic mirror as the focusing element and super-reflecting mirror surfaces is used to minimize the effects of stray light. The rotation of the spacecraft and an instrument scanning mirror provide the two-dimensional array of pixels comprising an image frame. (orig.)

  16. Urban Land Expansion and Spatial Dynamics in Globalizing Shanghai

    Han Li

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs. We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai.

  17. Global value chains: Building blocks and network dynamics

    Tsekeris, Theodore

    2017-12-01

    The paper employs measures and tools from complex network analysis to enhance the understanding and interpretation of structural characteristics pertaining to the Global Value Chains (GVCs) during the period 1995-2011. The analysis involves the country, sector and country-sector value chain networks to identify main drivers of structural change. The results indicate significant intertemporal changes, mirroring the increased globalization in terms of network size, strength and connectivity. They also demonstrate higher clustering and increased concentration of the most influential countries and country-sectors relative to all others in the GVC network, with the geographical dimension to prevail over the sectoral dimension in the formation of value chains. The regionalization and less hierarchical organization drive country-sector production sharing, while the sectoral value chain network has become more integrated and more competitive over time. The findings suggest that the impact of country-sector policies and/or shocks may vary with the own-group and network-wide influence of each country, take place in multiple geographical scales, as GVCs have a block structure, and involve time dynamics.

  18. On the global dynamics of the Rabinovich system

    Llibre, Jaume; Messias, Marcelo; Silva, Paulo R da

    2008-01-01

    In this paper by using the Poincare compactification in R 3 we make a global analysis of the Rabinovich system x-dot=hy-v 1 x+yz, y-dot=hx-v 2 y-xz, z-dot=-v 3 z+xy, where (x,y,z) element of R 3 and (h,v 1 ,v 2 ,v 3 ) element of R 4 . We give the complete description of its dynamics on the sphere at infinity. For ten sets of the parameter values the system has either first integrals or invariants. For these ten sets we provide the global phase portrait of the Rabinovich system in the Poincare ball (i.e. in the compactification of R 3 with the sphere S 2 of the infinity). We prove that for convenient values of the parameters the system has two families of singularly degenerate heteroclinic cycles. Then changing slightly the parameters we numerically found a four wings butterfly shaped strange attractor

  19. On the global dynamics of the Rabinovich system

    Llibre, Jaume [Departament de Matematiques, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Messias, Marcelo [Departamento de Matematica EstatIstica e Computacao, Faculdade de Ciencias e Tecnologia- UNESP, Rua Roberto Simonsen, 305, Cx. Postal 467, CEP 19060-900 P Prudente, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Silva, Paulo R da [Departamento de Matematica-IBILCE-UNESP, Rua C Colombo, 2265, CEP 15054-000 S J Rio Preto, Sao Paulo (Brazil)], E-mail: jllibre@mat.uab.cat, E-mail: marcelo@fct.unesp.br, E-mail: prs@ibilce.unesp.br

    2008-07-11

    In this paper by using the Poincare compactification in R{sup 3} we make a global analysis of the Rabinovich system x-dot=hy-v{sub 1}x+yz, y-dot=hx-v{sub 2}y-xz, z-dot=-v{sub 3}z+xy, where (x,y,z) element of R{sup 3} and (h,v{sub 1},v{sub 2},v{sub 3}) element of R{sup 4}. We give the complete description of its dynamics on the sphere at infinity. For ten sets of the parameter values the system has either first integrals or invariants. For these ten sets we provide the global phase portrait of the Rabinovich system in the Poincare ball (i.e. in the compactification of R{sup 3} with the sphere S{sup 2} of the infinity). We prove that for convenient values of the parameters the system has two families of singularly degenerate heteroclinic cycles. Then changing slightly the parameters we numerically found a four wings butterfly shaped strange attractor.

  20. Global brain dynamics during social exclusion predict subsequent behavioral conformity.

    Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway Falk, Brett; Garcia, Javier O; Cascio, Christopher N; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M; Falk, Emily B

    2018-02-01

    Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (n = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI session and a subsequent driving simulator session in which they drove alone and in the presence of a peer who expressed risk-averse or risk-accepting driving norms. We computed the difference in functional connectivity between social exclusion and social inclusion from each node in the brain to nodes in two brain networks, one previously associated with mentalizing (medial prefrontal cortex, temporoparietal junction, precuneus, temporal poles) and another with social pain (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula). Using predictive modeling, this measure of global connectivity during exclusion predicted the extent of conformity to peer pressure during driving in the subsequent experimental session. These findings extend our understanding of how global neural dynamics guide social behavior, revealing functional network activity that captures individual differences.

  1. The Dynamics of Lateral Gene Transfer in Genus Leishmania - A Route for Adaptation and Species Diversification.

    Vikeved, Elisabet; Backlund, Anders; Alsmark, Cecilia

    2016-01-01

    The genome of Leishmania major harbours a comparably high proportion of genes of prokaryote origin, acquired by lateral gene transfer (LGT). Some of these are present in closely related trypanosomatids, while some are detected in Leishmania only. We have evaluated the impact and destiny of LGT in genus Leishmania. To study the dynamics and fate of LGTs we have performed phylogenetic, as well as nucleotide and amino acid composition analyses within orthologous groups of LGTs detected in Leishmania. A set of universal trypanosomatid LGTs was added as a reference group. Both groups of LGTs have, to some extent, ameliorated to resemble the recipient genomes. However, while virtually all of the universal trypanosomatid LGTs are distributed and conserved in the entire genus Leishmania, the LGTs uniquely present in genus Leishmania are more prone to gene loss and display faster rates of evolution. Furthermore, a PCR based approach has been employed to ascertain the presence of a set of twenty LGTs uniquely present in genus Leishmania, and three universal trypanosomatid LGTs, in ten additional strains of Leishmania. Evolutionary rates and predicted expression levels of these LGTs have also been estimated. Ten of the twenty LGTs are distributed and conserved in all species investigated, while the remainder have been subjected to modifications, or undergone pseudogenization, degradation or loss in one or more species. LGTs unique to the genus Leishmania have been acquired after the divergence of Leishmania from the other trypanosomatids, and are evolving faster than their recipient genomes. This implies that LGT in genus Leishmania is a continuous and dynamic process contributing to species differentiation and speciation. This study also highlights the importance of carefully evaluating these dynamic genes, e.g. as LGTs have been suggested as potential drug targets.

  2. The Dynamics of Lateral Gene Transfer in Genus Leishmania - A Route for Adaptation and Species Diversification.

    Elisabet Vikeved

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The genome of Leishmania major harbours a comparably high proportion of genes of prokaryote origin, acquired by lateral gene transfer (LGT. Some of these are present in closely related trypanosomatids, while some are detected in Leishmania only. We have evaluated the impact and destiny of LGT in genus Leishmania.To study the dynamics and fate of LGTs we have performed phylogenetic, as well as nucleotide and amino acid composition analyses within orthologous groups of LGTs detected in Leishmania. A set of universal trypanosomatid LGTs was added as a reference group. Both groups of LGTs have, to some extent, ameliorated to resemble the recipient genomes. However, while virtually all of the universal trypanosomatid LGTs are distributed and conserved in the entire genus Leishmania, the LGTs uniquely present in genus Leishmania are more prone to gene loss and display faster rates of evolution. Furthermore, a PCR based approach has been employed to ascertain the presence of a set of twenty LGTs uniquely present in genus Leishmania, and three universal trypanosomatid LGTs, in ten additional strains of Leishmania. Evolutionary rates and predicted expression levels of these LGTs have also been estimated. Ten of the twenty LGTs are distributed and conserved in all species investigated, while the remainder have been subjected to modifications, or undergone pseudogenization, degradation or loss in one or more species.LGTs unique to the genus Leishmania have been acquired after the divergence of Leishmania from the other trypanosomatids, and are evolving faster than their recipient genomes. This implies that LGT in genus Leishmania is a continuous and dynamic process contributing to species differentiation and speciation. This study also highlights the importance of carefully evaluating these dynamic genes, e.g. as LGTs have been suggested as potential drug targets.

  3. The Dynamics of Lateral Gene Transfer in Genus Leishmania - A Route for Adaptation and Species Diversification

    Vikeved, Elisabet; Backlund, Anders; Alsmark, Cecilia

    2016-01-01

    Background The genome of Leishmania major harbours a comparably high proportion of genes of prokaryote origin, acquired by lateral gene transfer (LGT). Some of these are present in closely related trypanosomatids, while some are detected in Leishmania only. We have evaluated the impact and destiny of LGT in genus Leishmania. Methodology/Principal Findings To study the dynamics and fate of LGTs we have performed phylogenetic, as well as nucleotide and amino acid composition analyses within orthologous groups of LGTs detected in Leishmania. A set of universal trypanosomatid LGTs was added as a reference group. Both groups of LGTs have, to some extent, ameliorated to resemble the recipient genomes. However, while virtually all of the universal trypanosomatid LGTs are distributed and conserved in the entire genus Leishmania, the LGTs uniquely present in genus Leishmania are more prone to gene loss and display faster rates of evolution. Furthermore, a PCR based approach has been employed to ascertain the presence of a set of twenty LGTs uniquely present in genus Leishmania, and three universal trypanosomatid LGTs, in ten additional strains of Leishmania. Evolutionary rates and predicted expression levels of these LGTs have also been estimated. Ten of the twenty LGTs are distributed and conserved in all species investigated, while the remainder have been subjected to modifications, or undergone pseudogenization, degradation or loss in one or more species. Conclusions/Significance LGTs unique to the genus Leishmania have been acquired after the divergence of Leishmania from the other trypanosomatids, and are evolving faster than their recipient genomes. This implies that LGT in genus Leishmania is a continuous and dynamic process contributing to species differentiation and speciation. This study also highlights the importance of carefully evaluating these dynamic genes, e.g. as LGTs have been suggested as potential drug targets. PMID:26730948

  4. Dynamics of the Uranian and Saturnian satellite systems - a chaotic route to melting Miranda?

    Dermott, S.F.; Malhotra, R.B; Murray, C.D.

    1988-01-01

    Miranda's anomalously large inclination, in conjunction with the postaccretional resurfacing of both Miranda and Ariel and anomalously large eccentricities characterizing the inner Uranian satellites, are presently held to suggest the disruption of resonant configurations that once existed in this satellite system. Classical analytical methods for the dynamics of resonance are here used to demonstrate how temporary capture into a second- or higher-order resonance can generate large increases in eccentricity and inclination on comparatively short time-scales. Such capture into resonance may result in chaotic motion. 66 references

  5. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  6. The dynamics of accounting terms in a globalized environment

    Fuertes-Olivera, Pedro A.; Nielsen, Sandro

    2014-01-01

    European accounting terminology is dynamic as term creation occurs on national, European Union and international levels. English is the lingua franca of accounting, which influences terminologies in other languages, usually through the work of translators, e.g. the translation of existing interna...... into Spanish; and the presence of novel metaphors in Spanish accounting. The data used in the discussion are taken from the accounting dictionaries, a collection of online dictionaries in three languages: Danish, English and Spanish.......European accounting terminology is dynamic as term creation occurs on national, European Union and international levels. English is the lingua franca of accounting, which influences terminologies in other languages, usually through the work of translators, e.g. the translation of existing...... international accounting standards. The combined influence of these forces is discussed in this chapter that explains the existence of a globalized trend towards a kind of cultural uniformity. This manifests itself in many ways, two of which are: the translation of English multiword accounting terms...

  7. Towards transparent all-optical label-swapped networks: 40 Gbit/s ultra-fast dynamic wavelength routing using integrated devices

    Seoane, Jorge; Holm-Nielsen, Pablo Villanueva; Jeppesen, Palle

    2006-01-01

    All-optical routing of 40 Gbit/s 1.6 ns packets is demonstrated employing integrated devices based on SOA-MZIs. The scheme allows wavelength transparent operation and sub-nanosecond dynamic wavelength selection for future packet/label switched networks....

  8. Mapping Global Urban Dynamics from Nighttime Lights - 1992 to 2012

    Xie, Yanhua

    Accurate, up-to-date, and consistent information of urban extent is indispensable for numerous applications central to urban planning, ecosystem management, and environmental assessment and monitoring. However, current large-scale urban extent products are not uniform with respect to urban definition, spatial resolution, thematic representation, and temporal frequency. To fill this gap, this study proposed a method to update and backdate global urban extent from currently available urban maps by using nighttime light (NTL) as the main indicator. The method followed three steps: (1) exploring the spatiotemporal variation of NTL thresholds for mapping urban dynamics from NTL time series and developing an object-based thresholding method (i.e., NTL-OUT method, Xie & Weng, 2016b); (2) spatiotemporally enhancing time-series Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) NTL data for detecting broad-scale urban changes (Xie & Weng, 2017); and (3) detecting global urban dynamics during the period between 1992 and 2012 (i.e., 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012) from enhanced OLS NTL time series by using the NTL-OUT method. The results show that global urban extent almost doubled during the period from 1992 to 2012, increasing from 0.52 million to 0.98 million km 2, which accounts for 0.39% and 0.72% of the total global land area, respectively. Regionally, the urbanization level varies by continent, with Europe being the most urbanized, followed by North America, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia-Oceania. In 1992, the urban extent varied from only 0.1% of total continental land area in Australia-Oceania and Africa to 1.18% in Europe. While the proportion of urban extent in North America increased slightly from 1992 to 2002 (i.e., 0.07%), urban extent increased 0.1% for both Asia and South America. In 2012, over 0.7% of the total land was covered by the human built environment, with 0.2% in Africa and Australia-Oceania and around 0

  9. Dynamic route guidance algorithm based algorithm based on artificial immune system

    2007-01-01

    To improve the performance of the K-shortest paths search in intelligent traffic guidance systems,this paper proposes an optimal search algorithm based on the intelligent optimization search theory and the memphor mechanism of vertebrate immune systems.This algorithm,applied to the urban traffic network model established by the node-expanding method,can expediently realize K-shortest paths search in the urban traffic guidance systems.Because of the immune memory and global parallel search ability from artificial immune systems,K shortest paths can be found without any repeat,which indicates evidently the superiority of the algorithm to the conventional ones.Not only does it perform a better parallelism,the algorithm also prevents premature phenomenon that often occurs in genetic algorithms.Thus,it is especially suitable for real-time requirement of the traffic guidance system and other engineering optimal applications.A case study verifies the efficiency and the practicability of the algorithm aforementioned.

  10. Global dynamics, phase space transport, orbits homoclinic to resonances, and applications

    Wiggins, Stephen

    1993-01-01

    This monograph, which grew out of a series of lectures delivered by Stephen Wiggins at the Fields Institute in early 1993, is concerned with the geometrical viewpoint of the global dynamics of nonlinear dynamical systems. With appropriate examples and concise explanations, Wiggins unites many different topics into one volume and makes a unique contribution to the field. Engineers, physicists, chemists, and mathematicians who work on issues related to the global dynamics of nonlinear dynamical systems will find these lectures very useful.

  11. A global first integral for certain dynamical systems and related remarks

    Gonzalez-Gascon, F.

    1977-01-01

    A global first integral for certain dynamical systems and the related remarks are presented. In particular, it is shown that for these dynamical systems by introducing the (intrinsic) definition of the divergence of a vector field defined on an orientable differentiable manifold, the first integral, i.e. the (intrinsic) divergence of a vector field is now, automatically, a global first integral. (author)

  12. Dynamics in the global protected-area estate since 2004.

    Lewis, Edward; MacSharry, Brian; Juffe-Bignoli, Diego; Harris, Nyeema; Burrows, Georgina; Kingston, Naomi; Burgess, Neil D

    2017-11-23

    Nations of the world have committed to a number of goals and targets to address the global environmental challenges humanity faces. Protected areas have for centuries been a key strategy in conservation and play a major role in addressing current challenges. The most important tool used to track progress on protected area commitments is the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). Periodic assessments of the world's protected area estate show steady growth over the last two decades. However, the current method, which uses the latest version of the WDPA, does not show the true dynamic nature of protected areas over time, nor does it provide information on sites removed from the WDPA. In reality, this methodology can only show growth or remain stable. This paper presents a novel approach to assess protected area change over time using twelve temporally distinct versions of the WDPA that quantify area added, and removed, from the WDPA annually from 2004 to 2016. Results show that both the narrative of continual protected area growth and the counter-narrative of protected area removal are overly simplistic. The former because growth has been almost entirely marine and the latter because we demonstrate that some areas removed are re-protected in later years. Analysis indicates that, on average, 2.5 million km 2 is added to the WDPA annually and 1.1 million km 2 is removed. Reasons for the inclusion and removal of protected areas in the WDPA database are explored and discussed. To meet the 17% land coverage component of Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 by 2020, which stands at 14.7% in 2016, the world will either need to reduce the rate of protected area removal or increase the rate of protected area designation and addition to the WDPA. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  13. On Natality in Our Roots, Routes, and Relations: Reconceiving the "3 R's" at the Rendezvous of Education, Citizenship, and Globalization

    Quinn, Molly

    2011-01-01

    Background/Context: This essay is a part of a special issue that emerges from a year-long faculty seminar at Teachers College, Columbia University. The seminar's purpose has been to examine in fresh terms the nexus of globalization, education, and citizenship. Participants come from diverse fields of research and practice, among them art…

  14. Global road safety : promising routes to further improvements : roles for the FIA, its Member Clubs and other stakeholders.

    Schagen, I.N.L.G. Wegman, F.C.M. & Houtenbos, M.

    2015-01-01

    Worldwide, over 1.2 million people are killed in traffic each year and another 20 to 50 million are seriously injured. Road traffic injuries are estimated to be the eighth leading cause of death globally. If no action is undertaken, in 2030 road traffic injuries will be the fifth leading cause of

  15. Improved routing strategies for data traffic in scale-free networks

    Wu, Zhi-Xi; Peng, Gang; Wong, Wing-Ming; Yeung, Kai-Hau

    2008-01-01

    We study the information packet routing process in scale-free networks by mimicking Internet traffic delivery. We incorporate both the global shortest paths information and local degree information of the network in the dynamic process, via two tunable parameters, α and β, to guide the packet routing. We measure the performance of the routing method by both the average transit times of packets and the critical packet generation rate (above which packet aggregation occurs in the network). We found that the routing strategies which integrate ingredients of both global and local topological information of the underlying networks perform much better than the traditional shortest path routing protocol taking into account the global topological information only. Moreover, by doing comparative studies with some related works, we found that the performance of our proposed method shows universal efficiency characteristic against the amount of traffic

  16. Recent human history governs global ant invasion dynamics

    Cleo Bertelsmeier; Sébastien Ollier; Andrew Liebhold; Laurent Keller

    2017-01-01

    Human trade and travel are breaking down biogeographic barriers, resulting in shifts in the geographical distribution of organisms, yet it remains largely unknown whether different alien species generally follow similar spatiotemporal colonization patterns and how such patterns are driven by trends in global trade. Here, we analyse the global distribution of 241 alien...

  17. Does global sourcing pay-off? A competitive dynamics perspective

    Vos, Frederik Guido Sebastiaan; Scheffler, Paul; Schiele, Holger; Horn, Philipp

    2016-01-01

    The supposed benefits of global sourcing in supply chain management remain subject to debate. Here this study investigates the potential benefits of global sourcing using a large dataset obtained from a leading European automotive original equipment manufacturer, spanning a period of five years.

  18. A simple groundwater scheme in the TRIP river routing model: global off-line evaluation against GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates and observed river discharges

    J.-P. Vergnes

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is a non-negligible component of the global hydrological cycle, and its interaction with overlying unsaturated zones can influence water and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. Despite its importance, groundwater is not yet represented in most climate models. In this paper, the simple groundwater scheme implemented in the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP river routing model is applied in off-line mode at global scale using a 0.5° model resolution. The simulated river discharges are evaluated against a large dataset of about 3500 gauging stations compiled from the Global Data Runoff Center (GRDC and other sources, while the terrestrial water storage (TWS variations derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellite mission help to evaluate the simulated TWS. The forcing fields (surface runoff and deep drainage come from an independent simulation of the Interactions between Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (ISBA land surface model covering the period from 1950 to 2008. Results show that groundwater improves the efficiency scores for about 70% of the gauging stations and deteriorates them for 15%. The simulated TWS are also in better agreement with the GRACE estimates. These results are mainly explained by the lag introduced by the low-frequency variations of groundwater, which tend to shift and smooth the simulated river discharges and TWS. A sensitivity study on the global precipitation forcing used in ISBA to produce the forcing fields is also proposed. It shows that the groundwater scheme is not influenced by the uncertainties in precipitation data.

  19. High-efficiency dynamic routing architecture for the readout of single photon avalanche diode arrays in time-correlated measurements

    Cominelli, A.; Acconcia, G.; Peronio, P.; Rech, I.; Ghioni, M.

    2017-05-01

    transfer rate towards the elaboration unit. We developed a novel readout architecture, starting from a completely different perspective: considering the maximum data rate we can manage with a PC, a limited set of conversion data is selected and transferred to the elaboration unit during each excitation period, in order to take full advantage of the bus bandwidth toward the PC. In particular, we introduce a smart routing logic, able to dynamically connect a large number of SPAD detectors to a limited set of high-performance external acquisition chains, paving the way for a more efficient use of resources and allowing us to effectively break the tradeoff between integration and performance, which affects the solutions proposed so far. The routing electronic features a pixelated architecture, while 3D-stacking techniques are exploited to connect each SPAD to its dedicated electronic, leading to a minimization of the overall number of interconnections crossing the integrated system, which is one of the main issues in high-density arrays.

  20. AFSC/ABL: Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) fish and oceanography data

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Understanding the processes that regulate early marine survival of salmon is a major goal of the Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Northeast Pacific (NEP)...

  1. Global network reorganization during dynamic adaptations of Bacillus subtilis metabolism

    Buescher, Joerg Martin; Liebermeister, Wolfram; Jules, Matthieu

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation of cells to environmental changes requires dynamic interactions between metabolic and regulatory networks, but studies typically address only one or a few layers of regulation. For nutritional shifts between two preferred carbon sources of Bacillus subtilis, we combined statistical...

  2. The Globalization of Value chain activities, Knowledge dynamics, and Innovation

    Park, Eunkyung

    Firms are increasingly relocating diverse activities in the value chain abroad to reap the locational advantage available in other countries. One of the issues raised in this context is that, as global operations can function as channels for knowledge flows, the involved firms and locations may...... of the involved regions and countries. The purpose of this thesis is to study these issues with a broad research question, “What implications does the globalization of value chain activities have on innovation in firms and locations?” Four articles and a case study included in the thesis present empirical results...... gain or lose knowledge associated with the activities that are being globalized. Since knowledge is a critical input for innovation, this has some implications for the capability of firms to create new products and services. At the macro level, it may have an influence on the competitiveness...

  3. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Cai Liming [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Academia Sinica, Beijing 100080 (China)], E-mail: lmcai06@yahoo.com.cn; Guo Shumin [Beijing Institute of Information Control, Beijing 100037 (China); Li, XueZhi [Department of Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000 (China); Ghosh, Mini [School of Mathematics and Computer Application, Thapar University, Patiala 147004 (India)

    2009-11-30

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R{sub 0}. It is shown that if R{sub 0} is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R{sub 0} is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  4. Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

    Cai Liming; Guo Shumin; Li, XueZhi; Ghosh, Mini

    2009-01-01

    The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

  5. Global dynamics of a reaction-diffusion system

    Yuncheng You

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In this work the existence of a global attractor for the semiflow of weak solutions of a two-cell Brusselator system is proved. The method of grouping estimation is exploited to deal with the challenge in proving the absorbing property and the asymptotic compactness of this type of coupled reaction-diffusion systems with cubic autocatalytic nonlinearity and linear coupling. It is proved that the Hausdorff dimension and the fractal dimension of the global attractor are finite. Moreover, the existence of an exponential attractor for this solution semiflow is shown.

  6. Dynamic optical routing and simultaneous generation of millimeter-wave signals for in-building access network

    Zou, S.; Okonkwo, C.M.; Cao, Z.; Tran, N.C.; Tangdiongga, E.; Koonen, A.M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Two-stage optical routing using SOA and integrated micro-ring resonator, and remote generation of millimeter-wave signals by optical frequency multiplication is demonstrated for inbuilding network. Both 150Mb/s 64-QAM and 802.11a WLAN signal at 38GHz are transmitted.

  7. Global Stability in Dynamical Systems with Multiple Feedback Mechanisms

    Andersen, Morten; Vinther, Frank; Ottesen, Johnny T.

    2016-01-01

    A class of n-dimensional ODEs with up to n feedbacks from the n’th variable is analysed. The feedbacks are represented by non-specific, bounded, non-negative C1 functions. The main result is the formulation and proof of an easily applicable criterion for existence of a globally stable fixed point...

  8. Global Dynamics of Dispersal and Diversification among Passerine Birds

    Kennedy, Jonathan David

    Global variation in the distribution and diversity of species has been recognized by naturalists for centuries. However, despite extensive scientific study since the initial documentation of these patterns, we still lack a comprehensive explanation as to their underlying causes. Ultimately, this ...

  9. Global monitoring of dynamic information systems a case study in the international supply chain

    Pruksasri, P.; Berg, J. van den; Hofman, W.J.

    2014-01-01

    Global information systems are becoming more complex and dynamic everyday: huge amounts of data and messages through those systems show dynamically changing traffic patterns. Because of this, diagnosing when sub-systems are not working properly is difficult. System failures or errors in information

  10. Enhanced Contact Graph Routing (ECGR) MACHETE Simulation Model

    Segui, John S.; Jennings, Esther H.; Clare, Loren P.

    2013-01-01

    Contact Graph Routing (CGR) for Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) space-based networks makes use of the predictable nature of node contacts to make real-time routing decisions given unpredictable traffic patterns. The contact graph will have been disseminated to all nodes before the start of route computation. CGR was designed for space-based networking environments where future contact plans are known or are independently computable (e.g., using known orbital dynamics). For each data item (known as a bundle in DTN), a node independently performs route selection by examining possible paths to the destination. Route computation could conceivably run thousands of times a second, so computational load is important. This work refers to the simulation software model of Enhanced Contact Graph Routing (ECGR) for DTN Bundle Protocol in JPL's MACHETE simulation tool. The simulation model was used for performance analysis of CGR and led to several performance enhancements. The simulation model was used to demonstrate the improvements of ECGR over CGR as well as other routing methods in space network scenarios. ECGR moved to using earliest arrival time because it is a global monotonically increasing metric that guarantees the safety properties needed for the solution's correctness since route re-computation occurs at each node to accommodate unpredicted changes (e.g., traffic pattern, link quality). Furthermore, using earliest arrival time enabled the use of the standard Dijkstra algorithm for path selection. The Dijkstra algorithm for path selection has a well-known inexpensive computational cost. These enhancements have been integrated into the open source CGR implementation. The ECGR model is also useful for route metric experimentation and comparisons with other DTN routing protocols particularly when combined with MACHETE's space networking models and Delay Tolerant Link State Routing (DTLSR) model.

  11. Global dynamics of dust grains in magnetic planets

    Inarrea, Manuel; Lanchares, Victor; Palacian, Jesus F.; Pascual, Ana I.; Salas, J. Pablo; Yanguas, Patricia

    2005-01-01

    We study the dynamics of a charged particle orbiting a rotating magnetic planet. The system is modelled by the Hamiltonian of the two-body problem perturbed by an axially-symmetric potential. The perturbation consists in a magnetic dipole field and a corotational electric field. After an averaging process we arrive at a one degree of freedom Hamiltonian system for which we obtain its relative equilibria and bifurcations. It is shown that the system exhibits a complex and rich dynamics. In particular, dramatic changes in the phase flow take place in the vicinity of a circular equatorial orbit, that in the case of Saturn is located inside the E-ring

  12. Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization.

    Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A; Huffstot, John S; Mata, Maria Eugénia

    2018-01-01

    This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies.

  13. Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization

    2018-01-01

    This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies. PMID:29408909

  14. Global dynamics of dust grains in magnetic planets

    Inarrea, Manuel [Universidad de La Rioja, Area de Fisica Aplicada, 26006 Logrono (Spain)]. E-mail: manuel.inarrea@dq.unirioja.es; Lanchares, Victor [Universidad de La Rioja, Departamento de Matematicas y Computacion, 26004 Logrono (Spain); Palacian, Jesus F. [Universidad Publica de Navarra, Departamento de Matematica e Informatica, 31006 Pamplona (Spain); Pascual, Ana I. [Universidad de La Rioja, Departamento de Matematicas y Computacion, 26004 Logrono (Spain); Salas, J. Pablo [Universidad de La Rioja, Area de Fisica Aplicada, 26006 Logrono (Spain); Yanguas, Patricia [Universidad Publica de Navarra, Departamento de Matematica e Informatica, 31006 Pamplona (Spain)

    2005-05-02

    We study the dynamics of a charged particle orbiting a rotating magnetic planet. The system is modelled by the Hamiltonian of the two-body problem perturbed by an axially-symmetric potential. The perturbation consists in a magnetic dipole field and a corotational electric field. After an averaging process we arrive at a one degree of freedom Hamiltonian system for which we obtain its relative equilibria and bifurcations. It is shown that the system exhibits a complex and rich dynamics. In particular, dramatic changes in the phase flow take place in the vicinity of a circular equatorial orbit, that in the case of Saturn is located inside the E-ring.

  15. Dynamic tracking performance of indoor global positioning system: An experimental and theoretical study

    Gang Zhao

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The automation level has been improved rapidly with the introduction of large-scale measurement technologies, such as indoor global positioning system, into the production process among the fields of car, ship, and aerospace due to their excellent measurement characteristics. In fact, the objects are usually in motion during the real measurement process; however, the dynamic measurement characteristics of indoor global positioning system are much limited and still in exploration. In this research, we focused on the dynamic tracking performance of indoor global positioning system and then successfully built a mathematical model based on its measurement principles. We first built single and double station system models with the consideration of measurement objects’ movement. Using MATLAB simulation, we realized the dynamic measurement characteristics of indoor global positioning system. In the real measurement process, the experimental results also support the mathematical model that we built, which proves a great success in dynamic measurement characteristics. We envision that this dynamic tracking performance of indoor global positioning system would shed light on the dynamic measurement of a motion object and therefore make contribution to the automation production.

  16. Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE)

    ADAGE is a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model capable of examining many types of economic, energy, environmental, climate change mitigation, and trade policies at the international, national, U.S. regional, and U.S. state levels. To investigate proposed policy eff...

  17. Global dynamics of oscillator populations under common noise

    Braun, W.; Pikovsky, A.; Matias, M. A.; Colet, P.

    2012-07-01

    Common noise acting on a population of identical oscillators can synchronize them. We develop a description of this process which is not limited to the states close to synchrony, but provides a global picture of the evolution of the ensembles. The theory is based on the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation, allowing us to obtain closed stochastic equations for the global variables. We show that at the initial stage, the order parameter grows linearly in time, while at the later stages the convergence to synchrony is exponentially fast. Furthermore, we extend the theory to nonidentical ensembles with the Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies and determine the stationary values of the order parameter in dependence on driving noise and mismatch.

  18. Handbook of international insurance between global dynamics and local contingencies

    Venard, Bertrand

    2007-01-01

    THE HANDBOOK OF INTERNATIONAL INSURANCE Gordon Stewart, President, Insurance Information Institute, New York, USA "The globalization of insurance markets means that understanding both international developments and local trends around the world is now fundamental for insurance executives coping with today’s complex and competitive environment. By providing such a comprehensive picture of the world’s insurance markets, this unique and necessary book becomes an essential tool for anyone seeking to operate wisely and successfully. Richard D. Phillips, Professor and Chairman, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA "Comprehensive surveys, written by international experts, provide in depth descriptions and discuss recent developments of the world’s major insurance markets. Each chapter contains essential insights for insurance executives and academic researchers interested in risk management and the globalization of insurance markets." Patrick Liedtke, Secretary Ge...

  19. DYNAMICS AND NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKET

    MARIA CARTAS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Global economy and particularly the world production of goods depends to a large extent on the supply of raw materials, of resource inputs extracted from the environment as well as an easy access to them. Commodities play an important part in the growth of global production and in the world trade in goods and services. The access to raw materials is vital for sustaining the productive capacity of the economy and also for satisfying domestic demand for industrial goods. On the other side, increasing demand for commodities and the need for assuring a sustainable supply pose great challenges on the world economy. The issue of raw materials supply represents a high - priority theme in the political agenda of the European Union. The Raw Materials Initiative launched in 2008 by the European Commission is based on three main pillars: - to ensure the access to raw materials on world market at undistorted conditions; - to foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources; - to reduce the EU's consumption of primary raw materials. (EC, 2008. To this end, EC has started to take action in order to ensure access to resources and avoid supply shortages. A great deal of attention is being paid to the study of recent developments in the global and particular commodity markets, taking into consideration fundamental aspects as supply concentration, governance of producing countries, the pressure of demand and its impact on prices, material's substitutability, stressing the role of resource consumption efficiency, recycling and substitution of vital raw materials and thus providing policy makers and industry with reliable information on how to efficiently manage resource inputs. This paper is dealing with the main developments which occurred during the past decade or so in the global commodity market, a major driver of the world economy, with particular reference to selected key -markets - as: aluminium, copper, nickel; cotton; corn, meat - swine

  20. Mechanisms for the inversion of chirality: Global reaction route mapping of stereochemical pathways in a probable chiral extraterrestrial molecule, 2-aminopropionitrile

    Kaur, Ramanpreet; Vikas

    2015-01-01

    2-Aminopropionitrile (APN), a probable candidate as a chiral astrophysical molecule, is a precursor to amino-acid alanine. Stereochemical pathways in 2-APN are explored using Global Reaction Route Mapping (GRRM) method employing high-level quantum-mechanical computations. Besides predicting the conventional mechanism for chiral inversion that proceeds through an achiral intermediate, a counterintuitive flipping mechanism is revealed for 2-APN through chiral intermediates explored using the GRRM. The feasibility of the proposed stereochemical pathways, in terms of the Gibbs free-energy change, is analyzed at the temperature conditions akin to the interstellar medium. Notably, the stereoinversion in 2-APN is observed to be more feasible than the dissociation of 2-APN and intermediates involved along the stereochemical pathways, and the flipping barrier is observed to be as low as 3.68 kJ/mol along one of the pathways. The pathways proposed for the inversion of chirality in 2-APN may provide significant insight into the extraterrestrial origin of life

  1. Consciousness as a global property of brain dynamic activity

    Mateos, D. M.; Wennberg, R.; Guevara, R.; Perez Velazquez, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    We seek general principles of the structure of the cellular collective activity associated with conscious awareness. Can we obtain evidence for features of the optimal brain organization that allows for adequate processing of stimuli and that may guide the emergence of cognition and consciousness? Analyzing brain recordings in conscious and unconscious states, we followed initially the classic approach in physics when it comes to understanding collective behaviours of systems composed of a myriad of units: the assessment of the number of possible configurations (microstates) that the system can adopt, for which we use a global entropic measure associated with the number of connected brain regions. Having found maximal entropy in conscious states, we then inspected the microscopic nature of the configurations of connections using an adequate complexity measure and found higher complexity in states characterized not only by conscious awareness but also by subconscious cognitive processing, such as sleep stages. Our observations indicate that conscious awareness is associated with maximal global (macroscopic) entropy and with the short time scale (microscopic) complexity of the configurations of connected brain networks in pathological unconscious states (seizures and coma), but the microscopic view captures the high complexity in physiological unconscious states (sleep) where there is information processing. As such, our results support the global nature of conscious awareness, as advocated by several theories of cognition. We thus hope that our studies represent preliminary steps to reveal aspects of the structure of cognition that leads to conscious awareness.

  2. GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics: Northwest Atlantic program

    1991-01-01

    The specific objective of the meeting was to plan an experiment in the Northwestern Atlantic to study the marine ecosystem and its role, together with that of climate and physical dynamics, in determining fisheries recruitment. The underlying focus of the GLOBEC initiative is to understand the marine ecosystem as it related to marine living resources and to understand how fluctuation in these resources are driven by climate change and exploitation. In this sense the goal is a solid scientific program to provide basic information concerning major fisheries stocks and the environment that sustains them. The plan is to attempt to reach this understanding through a multidisciplinary program that brings to bear new techniques as disparate as numerical fluid dynamic models of ocean circulation, molecular biology and modern acoustic imaging. The effort will also make use of the massive historical data sets on fisheries and the state of the climate in a coordinated manner.

  3. How Does the Electron Dynamics Affect the Global Reconnection Rate

    Hesse, Michael

    2012-01-01

    The question of whether the microscale controls the macroscale or vice-versa remains one of the most challenging problems in plasmas. A particular topic of interest within this context is collisionless magnetic reconnection, where both points of views are espoused by different groups of researchers. This presentation will focus on this topic. We will begin by analyzing the properties of electron diffusion region dynamics both for guide field and anti-parallel reconnection, and how they can be scaled to different inflow conditions. As a next step, we will study typical temporal variations of the microscopic dynamics with the objective of understanding the potential for secular changes to the macroscopic system. The research will be based on a combination of analytical theory and numerical modeling.

  4. Structure and dynamics of the global financial network

    Silva, Thiago Christiano; Rubens Stancato de Souza, Sergio; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study the evolution of the network topology for the global financial market. We evaluate the level of diversification and participation of developed and emerging economies in cross-border exposures and find that the gross exposure network is dense, the vulnerability matrix is sparse, and the network’s fragility changes over time. Prior to the financial crisis in 2008, the network was relatively fragile, whereas it became more resilient afterwards, showing a reduction in financial institutions’ risk appetite. Our results suggest that financial regulators should track down the network evolution in their systemic risk assessment.

  5. The New Realities of Global Health: Dynamics and Obstacles

    Marine Buissonnière

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Published by Palgrave MacmillanThe past 15 years have seen the arrival of new actors in the field of global health and an increase in development aid in the healthcare sector. These actors have claimed a significant share of the additional public and private resources available becoming the driving force in this new paradigm, often at the expense of traditional institutions, which have gradually lost their policy hegemony. Making choices and formulating policies on the matter of healthcare have ceased to be the sole prerogative of the institutions that had hitherto held the mandate and the responsibility for doing so. Entire areas of the healthcare sector are now dominated by private funders, which have become the de facto decision-makers on public health policy. This new situation raises fundamental questions about governance and accountability. Who decides policy? How are decisions made? All too often, countries in receipt of aid continue to suffer from inadequate coordination between donors and from the lack of a common agenda. With this in mind, it is worth exploring a number of ways of ensuring that global healthcare policies best reflect the beneficiary countries’ actual needs and aspirations.

  6. GLOBAL ECONOMIC FACTORS ON GULF LABOR DYNAMICS: LOCALIZATION VERSUS IMMIGRATION

    Esra Pakin ALBAYRAKOGLU

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC represents an ambitious bloc of six Arab countries in pursuit of deeper integration with the global economy. Although the members differ among themselves in terms of composition of population, natural resources or economic and military capabilities, they look relatively similar as regards conservatism and prosperity based on hydrocarbon revenues. This paper presents an international political economy perspective on the past and present labor crises in the GCC countries and makes suggestions for improving the qualities and conditions of national and foreign work force. It is concluded that the GCC would survive in the post-carbon era, provided that economic diversification went coordinately with necessary adjustments in the labor sector

  7. Dynamics of radioactive lead isotopes in the global environmental atmosphere

    Koike, Yuya; Kosako, Toshiso

    2006-01-01

    Fundamental information of radioactive lead isotopes, which used as the atmospheric tracer in the global environmental atmosphere, is reviewed. Emanation and exhalation of Rn and Tn, parent nuclide, is stated. Some reports on measurement and application of short-lived lead isotopes are reported. Transfer of radioactive lead isotopes in the atmosphere, vertical profiles of radon, thoron, and short-lived lead isotopes for different turbulent mixing conditions, deposition to aerosol, basic processes of Rn decay product behavior in air defining 'unattached' and 'aerosol-attached' activities, seasonal variation of atmospheric 210 Pb concentration at Beijing and Chengdu, seasonal variation of atmospheric 212 Pb concentration at several observation sites in Japan Islands, and variation in the atmospheric concentration of 212 Pb along with SO 2 are shown. (S.Y.)

  8. Global warming impact assessment of a crop residue gasification project—A dynamic LCA perspective

    Yang, Jin; Chen, Bin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic LCA is proposed considering time-varying factors. • Dynamic LCA is used to highlight GHG emission hotspots of gasification projects. • Indicators are proposed to reflect GHG emission performance. • Dynamic LCA alters the static LCA results. • Crop residue gasification project has high GHG abatement potential. - Abstract: Bioenergy from crop residues is one of the prevailing sustainable energy sources owing to the abundant reserves worldwide. Amongst a wide variety of energy conversion technologies, crop residue gasification has been regarded as promising owing to its higher energy efficiency than that of direct combustion. However, prior to large-scale application of crop residue gasification, the lifetime environmental performance should be investigated to shed light on sustainable strategies. As traditional static life cycle assessment (LCA) does not include temporal information for dynamic processes, we proposed a dynamic life cycle assessment approach, which improves the static LCA approach by considering time-varying factors, e.g., greenhouse gas characterization factors and energy intensity. As the gasification project can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) discharge compared with traditional direct fuel combustion, trade-offs between the benefits of global warming mitigation and the impact on global warming of crop residue gasification should be considered. Therefore, indicators of net global warming mitigation benefit and global warming impact mitigation period are put forward to justify the feasibility of the crop residue gasification project. The proposed dynamic LCA and indicators were then applied to estimate the life cycle global warming impact of a crop residue gasification system in China. Results show that the crop residue gasification project has high net global warming mitigation benefit and a short global warming impact mitigation period, indicating its prominent potential in alleviating global warming impact. During

  9. Collective network routing

    Hoenicke, Dirk

    2014-12-02

    Disclosed are a unified method and apparatus to classify, route, and process injected data packets into a network so as to belong to a plurality of logical networks, each implementing a specific flow of data on top of a common physical network. The method allows to locally identify collectives of packets for local processing, such as the computation of the sum, difference, maximum, minimum, or other logical operations among the identified packet collective. Packets are injected together with a class-attribute and an opcode attribute. Network routers, employing the described method, use the packet attributes to look-up the class-specific route information from a local route table, which contains the local incoming and outgoing directions as part of the specifically implemented global data flow of the particular virtual network.

  10. Progress Towards a Global Understanding of Plankton Dynamics: The Global Alliance of CPR Surveys (GACS)

    Batten, S.; Richardson, A.; Melrose, C.; Muxagata, E.; Hosie, G.; Verheye, H.; Hall, J.; Edwards, M.; Koubbi, P.; Abu-Alhaija, R.; Chiba, S.; Wilson, W.; Nagappa, R.; Takahashi, K.

    2016-02-01

    The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) was first used in 1931 to routinely sample plankton and its continued deployment now sustains the longest-running, and spatially most extensive marine biological sampling programme in the world. Towed behind, for the most part commercial, ships it collects plankton samples from the surface waters that are subsequently analysed to provide taxonomically-resolved abundance data on a broad range of planktonic organisms from the size of coccolithophores to euphausiids. Plankton appear to integrate changes in the physical environment and by underpinning most marine food-webs, pass on this variability to higher trophic levels which have societal value. CPRs are deployed increasingly around the globe in discrete regional surveys that until recently interacted in an informal way. In 2011 the Global Alliance of CPR Surveys (GACS) was launched to bring these surveys together to collaborate more productively and address issues such as: methodological standardization, data integration, capacity building, and data analysis. Early products include a combined global database and regularly-released global marine ecological status reports. There are, of course, limitations to the exploitation of CPR data as well as the current geographic coverage. A current focus of GACS is integration of the data with models to meaningfully extrapolate across time and space. In this way the output could be used to provide more robust synoptic representations of key plankton variables. Recent years have also seen the CPR used as a platform in itself with the inclusion of additional sensors and water samplers that can sample the microplankton. The archive of samples has already been used for some molecular investigations and curation of samples is maintained for future studies. Thus the CPR is a key element of any regional to global ocean observing system of biodiversity.

  11. Indian Handicrafts in Globalization Times: An analysis of Global-Local Dynamics

    Pradeep Kumar Jena

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization – which refers to the growing integration of societies, economies and cultures around the world, has become one of the most hotly-debated topics and key area of research among the policy makers, statesmen, corporate, politicians and academia respectively over the past few years. As India opens up her doors to the multinationals during the era of economic reform and liberalized market, putting an end to the ‘license raj’, it is not only the economies that often meet in the global market sphere, but also the people and cultures, which bring a new dimension to the multi-cultural setting. What we can see in present day modern world is that there is always a cross-cultural interaction between the ‘local’ and ‘global’ and the much discussed ‘global village’, is now not just a possibility but a reality despite many contradictions. Talking about Indian Handicrafts, which constitutes a significant segment of the decentralized sector of the economy, its export has reached at a commendable height. Indian folk art and crafts which are the integral parts of the Indian culture and tradition, are in high demand among the western consumers. Again, foreign fashion industry borrows a great deal from Indian appliquéd motifs Saree designs, an ethnic Indian wear. Needless to say, the borders between the world cultures are now eroding out and becoming irrelevant, therefore prompting to call it as a deterritorialized world.But notwithstanding, the real concern for many of us is that, can the ‘local’ really meet with the ‘global’ by truly sustaining its localness? The biggest problem in the Indian Handicraft industry is that the village craftsmen remain concerned that with free trade and mass production, hand-made products from other parts of the world will out price the products of their hard labour. So the basic question arises, is globalization a panacea for every human problems that the mother earth is facing now? With a

  12. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  13. Dynamic global model of oxide Czochralski process with weighing control

    Mamedov, V. M.; Vasiliev, M. G.; Yuferev, V. S.

    2011-03-01

    A dynamic model of oxide Czochralski growth with weighing control has been developed for the first time. A time-dependent approach is used for the calculation of temperature fields in different parts of a crystallization set-up and convection patterns in a melt, while internal radiation in crystal is considered in a quasi-steady approximation. A special algorithm is developed for the calculation of displacement of a triple point and simulation of a crystal surface formation. To calculate variations in the heat generation, a model of weighing control with a commonly used PID regulator is applied. As an example, simulation of the growth process of gallium-gadolinium garnet (GGG) crystals starting from the stage of seeding is performed.

  14. Inflationary α -attractor cosmology: A global dynamical systems perspective

    Alho, Artur; Uggla, Claes

    2017-04-01

    We study flat Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker α -attractor E- and T-models by introducing a dynamical systems framework that yields regularized unconstrained field equations on two-dimensional compact state spaces. This results in both illustrative figures and a complete description of the entire solution spaces of these models, including asymptotics. In particular, it is shown that observational viability, which requires a sufficient number of e -folds, is associated with a particular solution given by a one-dimensional center manifold of a past asymptotic de Sitter state, where the center manifold structure also explains why nearby solutions are attracted to this "inflationary attractor solution." A center manifold expansion yields a description of the inflationary regime with arbitrary analytic accuracy, where the slow-roll approximation asymptotically describes the tangency condition of the center manifold at the asymptotic de Sitter state.

  15. Deep HST Imaging in 47 Tucanae: A Global Dynamical Model

    Heyl, J.; Caiazzo, I.; Richer, H.; Anderson, J.; Kalirai, J.; Parada, J.

    2017-12-01

    Multi-epoch observations with the Advanced Camera Survey and WFC3 on the Hubble Space Telescope provide a unique and comprehensive probe of stellar dynamics within 47 Tucanae. We confront analytic models of the globular cluster with the observed stellar proper motions that probe along the main sequence from just above 0.8-0.1M ⊙ as well as white dwarfs younger than 1 Gyr. One field lies just beyond the half-light radius where dynamical models (e.g., lowered Maxwellian distributions) make robust predictions for the stellar proper motions. The observed proper motions in this outer field show evidence for anisotropy in the velocity distribution as well as skewness; the latter is evidence of rotation. The measured velocity dispersions and surface brightness distributions agree in detail with a rotating anisotropic model of the stellar distribution function with mild dependence of the proper-motion dispersion on mass. However, the best-fitting models underpredict the rotation and skewness of the stellar velocities. In the second field, centered on the core of the cluster, the mass segregation in proper motion is much stronger. Nevertheless the model developed in the outer field can be extended inward by taking this mass segregation into account in a heuristic fashion. The proper motions of the main-sequence stars yield a mass estimate of the cluster of 1.31+/- 0.02× {10}6{M}⊙ at a distance of 4.7 kpc. By comparing the proper motions of a sample of giant and subgiant stars with the observed radial velocities we estimate the distance to the cluster kinematically to be 4.29 ± 0.47 kpc.

  16. A Space-Time Network-Based Modeling Framework for Dynamic Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Routing in Traffic Incident Monitoring Applications

    Jisheng Zhang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available It is essential for transportation management centers to equip and manage a network of fixed and mobile sensors in order to quickly detect traffic incidents and further monitor the related impact areas, especially for high-impact accidents with dramatic traffic congestion propagation. As emerging small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs start to have a more flexible regulation environment, it is critically important to fully explore the potential for of using UAVs for monitoring recurring and non-recurring traffic conditions and special events on transportation networks. This paper presents a space-time network- based modeling framework for integrated fixed and mobile sensor networks, in order to provide a rapid and systematic road traffic monitoring mechanism. By constructing a discretized space-time network to characterize not only the speed for UAVs but also the time-sensitive impact areas of traffic congestion, we formulate the problem as a linear integer programming model to minimize the detection delay cost and operational cost, subject to feasible flying route constraints. A Lagrangian relaxation solution framework is developed to decompose the original complex problem into a series of computationally efficient time-dependent and least cost path finding sub-problems. Several examples are used to demonstrate the results of proposed models in UAVs’ route planning for small and medium-scale networks.

  17. Optimizing well intervention routes

    Paiva, Ronaldo O. [PETROBRAS S.A., Vitoria, ES (Brazil); Schiozer, Denis J.; Bordalo, Sergio N. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo (CEPETRO)]. E-mail: denis@dep.fem.unicamp.br; bordalo@dep.fem.unicamp.br

    2000-07-01

    This work presents a method for optimizing the itinerary of work over rigs, i.e., the search for the route of minimum total cost, and demonstrates the importance of the dynamics of reservoir behaviour. The total cost of a route includes the rig expenses (transport, assembly and operation), which are functions of time and distances, plus the losses of revenue in wells waiting for the rig, which are also dependent of time. A reservoir simulator is used to evaluate the monetary influence of the well shutdown on the present value of the production curve. Finally, search algorithms are employed to determine the route of minimal cost. The Simulated Annealing algorithm was also successful in optimizing the distribution of a list of wells among different work over rigs. The rational approach presented here is recommended for management teams as a standard procedure to define the priority of wells scheduled for work over. (author)

  18. From global scaling to the dynamics of individual cities

    Depersin, Jules; Barthelemy, Marc

    2018-03-01

    Scaling has been proposed as a powerful tool to analyze the properties of complex systems and in particular for cities where it describes how various properties change with population. The empirical study of scaling on a wide range of urban datasets displays apparent nonlinear behaviors whose statistical validity and meaning were recently the focus of many debates. We discuss here another aspect, which is the implication of such scaling forms on individual cities and how they can be used for predicting the behavior of a city when its population changes. We illustrate this discussion in the case of delay due to traffic congestion with a dataset of 101 US cities in the years 1982–2014. We show that the scaling form obtained by agglomerating all of the available data for different cities and for different years does display a nonlinear behavior, but which appears to be unrelated to the dynamics of individual cities when their population grows. In other words, the congestion-induced delay in a given city does not depend on its population only, but also on its previous history. This strong path dependency prohibits the existence of a simple scaling form valid for all cities and shows that we cannot always agglomerate the data for many different systems. More generally, these results also challenge the use of transversal data for understanding longitudinal series for cities.

  19. Global Dynamics of Avian Influenza Epidemic Models with Psychological Effect

    Sanhong Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

  20. Global dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models with psychological effect.

    Liu, Sanhong; Pang, Liuyong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2015-01-01

    Cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and China after the outbreaks of the avian influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 viruses show a high degree of awareness of human avian influenza in both urban and rural populations, a higher level of proper hygienic practice among urban residents, and in particular a dramatically reduced number of visits to live markets in urban population after the influenza A H7N9 outbreak in China in 2013. In this paper, taking into account the psychological effect toward avian influenza in the human population, a bird-to-human transmission model in which the avian population exhibits saturation effect is constructed. The dynamical behavior of the model is studied by using the basic reproduction number. The results demonstrate that the saturation effect within avian population and the psychological effect in human population cannot change the stability of equilibria but can affect the number of infected humans if the disease is prevalent. Numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results and sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number in terms of model parameters that are performed to seek for effective control measures for avian influenza.

  1. Global Dynamical Systems Involving Generalized -Projection Operators and Set-Valued Perturbation in Banach Spaces

    Yun-zhi Zou

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A new class of generalized dynamical systems involving generalized f-projection operators is introduced and studied in Banach spaces. By using the fixed-point theorem due to Nadler, the equilibrium points set of this class of generalized global dynamical systems is proved to be nonempty and closed under some suitable conditions. Moreover, the solutions set of the systems with set-valued perturbation is showed to be continuous with respect to the initial value.

  2. A review on bridge dynamic displacement monitoring using global positioning system and accelerometer

    Yunus, Mohd Zulkifli Mohd; Ibrahim, Nuremira; Ahmad, Fatimah Shafinaz

    2018-02-01

    This paper reviews previous research on bridge dynamic displacement monitoring using Global Positioning System (GPS) and an accelerometer for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of bridge. These include the review of the advantages and disadvantages of the measurement as well as the methodology of the measurements used in the recent research study. This review could provide a preliminary decision overview for students or researchers before initiating a research related to the bridge dynamic displacement monitoring.

  3. Routing strategies in traffic network and phase transition in network ...

    The dynamics of information traffic over scale-free networks has been investigated systematically. A series of routing strategies of data packets have been proposed, including the local routing strategy, the next-nearest-neighbour routing strategy, and the mixed routing strategy based on local static and dynamic information.

  4. Bellman Ford algorithm - in Routing Information Protocol (RIP)

    Krianto Sulaiman, Oris; Mahmud Siregar, Amir; Nasution, Khairuddin; Haramaini, Tasliyah

    2018-04-01

    In a large scale network need a routing that can handle a lot number of users, one of the solutions to cope with large scale network is by using a routing protocol, There are 2 types of routing protocol that is static and dynamic, Static routing is manually route input based on network admin, while dynamic routing is automatically route input formed based on existing network. Dynamic routing is efficient used to network extensively because of the input of route automatic formed, Routing Information Protocol (RIP) is one of dynamic routing that uses the bellman-ford algorithm where this algorithm will search for the best path that traversed the network by leveraging the value of each link, so with the bellman-ford algorithm owned by RIP can optimize existing networks.

  5. Global dynamics of magnetic reconnection in VINETA II

    Bohlin, Hannes

    2014-12-12

    Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental plasma process where a change in field line connectivity occurs in a current sheet at the boundary between regions of opposing magnetic fields. In this process, energy stored in the magnetic field is converted into kinetic and thermal energy, which provides a source of plasma heating and energetic particles. Magnetic reconnection plays a key role in many space and laboratory plasma phenomena, e.g. solar flares, Earth's magnetopause dynamics and instabilities in tokamaks. A new linear device (VINETAII) has been designed for the study of the fundamental physical processes involved in magnetic reconnection. The plasma parameters are such that magnetic reconnection occurs in a collision-dominated regime. A plasma gun creates a localized current sheet, and magnetic reconnection is driven by modulating the plasma current and the magnetic field structure. The plasma current is shown to flow in response to a combination of an externally induced electric field and electrostatic fields in the plasma, and is highly affected by axial sheath boundary conditions. Further, the current is changed by an additional axial magnetic field (guide field), and the current sheet geometry was demonstrated to be set by a combination of magnetic mapping and cross-field plasma diffusion. With increasing distance from the plasma gun, magnetic mapping results in an increase of the current sheet length and a decrease of the width. The control parameter is the ratio of the guide field to the reconnection magnetic field strength. Cross-field plasma diffusion leads to a radial expansion of the current sheet at low guide fields. Plasma currents are also observed in the azimuthal plane and were found to originate from a combination of the field-aligned current component and the diamagnetic current generated by steep in-plane pressure gradients in combination with the guide field. The reconnection rate, defined via the inductive electric field, is shown to be

  6. The DTU12MDT global mean dynamic topography and ocean circulation model

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

    2013-01-01

    combined with the DTU10MSS mean sea surface model to construct a global mean dynamic topography model named DTU10MDT. The results of analyses clearly demonstrated the value of the GOCE mission. Both the resolution and the estimation of the surface currents have been improved significantly compared...

  7. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

  8. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David

    2011-01-01

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  9. Complete synchronization of the global coupled dynamical network induced by Poisson noises.

    Guo, Qing; Wan, Fangyi

    2017-01-01

    The different Poisson noise-induced complete synchronization of the global coupled dynamical network is investigated. Based on the stability theory of stochastic differential equations driven by Poisson process, we can prove that Poisson noises can induce synchronization and sufficient conditions are established to achieve complete synchronization with probability 1. Furthermore, numerical examples are provided to show the agreement between theoretical and numerical analysis.

  10. Quantitative analysis of proteome and lipidome dynamics reveals functional regulation of global lipid metabolism

    Casanovas, Albert; Sprenger, Richard R; Tarasov, Kirill

    2015-01-01

    Elucidating how and to what extent lipid metabolism is remodeled under changing conditions is essential for understanding cellular physiology. Here, we analyzed proteome and lipidome dynamics to investigate how regulation of lipid metabolism at the global scale supports remodeling of cellular...

  11. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

  12. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    Lamboni, Matieyendou [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Monod, Herve, E-mail: herve.monod@jouy.inra.f [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Makowski, David [INRA, UMR Agronomie INRA/AgroParisTech (UMR 211), BP 01, F78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France)

    2011-04-15

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  13. Global attractor and asymptotic dynamics in the Kuramoto model for coupled noisy phase oscillators

    Giacomin, Giambattista; Pakdaman, Khashayar; Pellegrin, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    We study the dynamics of the large N limit of the Kuramoto model of coupled phase oscillators, subject to white noise. We introduce the notion of shadow inertial manifold and we prove their existence for this model, supporting the fact that the long-term dynamics of this model is finite dimensional. Following this, we prove that the global attractor of this model takes one of two forms. When coupling strength is below a critical value, the global attractor is a single equilibrium point corresponding to an incoherent state. Otherwise, when coupling strength is beyond this critical value, the global attractor is a two-dimensional disc composed of radial trajectories connecting a saddle-point equilibrium (the incoherent state) to an invariant closed curve of locally stable equilibria (partially synchronized state). Our analysis hinges, on the one hand, upon sharp existence and uniqueness results and their consequence for the existence of a global attractor, and, on the other hand, on the study of the dynamics in the vicinity of the incoherent and coherent (or synchronized) equilibria. We prove in particular nonlinear stability of each synchronized equilibrium, and normal hyperbolicity of the set of such equilibria. We explore mathematically and numerically several properties of the global attractor, in particular we discuss the limit of this attractor as noise intensity decreases to zero

  14. Global dynamics of a novel multi-group model for computer worms

    Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we study worm dynamics in computer networks composed of many autonomous systems. A novel multi-group SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-removed) model is proposed for computer worms by explicitly considering anti-virus measures and the network infrastructure. Then, the basic reproduction number of worm R 0 is derived and the global dynamics of the model are established. It is shown that if R 0 is less than or equal to 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the worm dies out eventually, whereas, if R 0 is greater than 1, one unique endemic equilibrium exists and it is globally asymptotically stable, thus the worm persists in the network. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical results. (general)

  15. The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries

    Anderies, J M; Carpenter, S R; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan

    2013-01-01

    We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a ‘safe operating space’ for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries. (letter)

  16. The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries

    Anderies, J. M.; Carpenter, S. R.; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan

    2013-12-01

    We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a ‘safe operating space’ for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries.

  17. Global fast dynamic terminal sliding mode control for a quadrotor UAV.

    Xiong, Jing-Jing; Zhang, Guo-Bao

    2017-01-01

    A control method based on global fast dynamic terminal sliding mode control (TSMC) technique is proposed to design the flight controller for performing the finite-time position and attitude tracking control of a small quadrotor UAV. Firstly, the dynamic model of the quadrotor is divided into two subsystems, i.e., a fully actuated subsystem and an underactuated subsystem. Secondly, the dynamic flight controllers of the quadrotor are formulated based on global fast dynamic TSMC, which is able to guarantee that the position and velocity tracking errors of all system state variables converge to zero in finite-time. Moreover, the global fast dynamic TSMC is also able to eliminate the chattering phenomenon caused by the switching control action and realize the high precision performance. In addition, the stabilities of two subsystems are demonstrated by Lyapunov theory, respectively. Lastly, the simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control method in the presence of external disturbances. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Complex Dynamics on the Routes to Chaos in a Discrete Predator-Prey System with Crowley-Martin Type Functional Response

    Huayong Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We present in this paper an investigation on a discrete predator-prey system with Crowley-Martin type functional response to know its complex dynamics on the routes to chaos which are induced by bifurcations. Via application of the center manifold theorem and bifurcation theorems, occurrence conditions for flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation are determined, respectively. Numerical simulations are performed, on the one hand, verifying the theoretical results and, on the other hand, revealing new interesting dynamical behaviors of the discrete predator-prey system, including period-doubling cascades, period-2, period-3, period-4, period-5, period-6, period-7, period-8, period-9, period-11, period-13, period-15, period-16, period-20, period-22, period-24, period-30, and period-34 orbits, invariant cycles, chaotic attractors, sub-flip bifurcation, sub-(inverse Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, chaotic interior crisis, chaotic band, sudden disappearance of chaotic dynamics and abrupt emergence of chaos, and intermittent periodic behaviors. Moreover, three-dimensional bifurcation diagrams are utilized to study the transition between flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, and a critical case between the two bifurcations is found. This critical bifurcation case is a combination of flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, showing the nonlinear characteristics of both bifurcations.

  19. A dynamic globalization model for large eddy simulation of complex turbulent flow

    Choi, Hae Cheon; Park, No Ma; Kim, Jin Seok [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    A dynamic subgrid-scale model is proposed for large eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometry. The eddy viscosity model by Vreman [Phys. Fluids, 16, 3670 (2004)] is considered as a base model. A priori tests with the original Vreman model show that it predicts the correct profile of subgrid-scale dissipation in turbulent channel flow but the optimal model coefficient is far from universal. Dynamic procedures of determining the model coefficient are proposed based on the 'global equilibrium' between the subgrid-scale dissipation and viscous dissipation. An important feature of the proposed procedures is that the model coefficient determined is globally constant in space but varies only in time. Large eddy simulations with the present dynamic model are conducted for forced isotropic turbulence, turbulent channel flow and flow over a sphere, showing excellent agreements with previous results.

  20. Global dynamics of a nonlocal delayed reaction-diffusion equation on a half plane

    Hu, Wenjie; Duan, Yueliang

    2018-04-01

    We consider a delayed reaction-diffusion equation with spatial nonlocality on a half plane that describes population dynamics of a two-stage species living in a semi-infinite environment. A Neumann boundary condition is imposed accounting for an isolated domain. To describe the global dynamics, we first establish some a priori estimate for nontrivial solutions after investigating asymptotic properties of the nonlocal delayed effect and the diffusion operator, which enables us to show the permanence of the equation with respect to the compact open topology. We then employ standard dynamical system arguments to establish the global attractivity of the nontrivial equilibrium. The main results are illustrated by the diffusive Nicholson's blowfly equation and the diffusive Mackey-Glass equation.

  1. Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

    Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

    2014-01-01

    Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global

  2. Selective epidemic vaccination under the performant routing algorithms

    Bamaarouf, O.; Alweimine, A. Ould Baba; Rachadi, A.; EZ-Zahraouy, H.

    2018-04-01

    Despite the extensive research on traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the effect of the routing algorithms strategies on the traffic-driven epidemic spreading has not received an adequate attention. It is well known that more performant routing algorithm strategies are used to overcome the congestion problem. However, our main result shows unexpectedly that these algorithms favor the virus spreading more than the case where the shortest path based algorithm is used. In this work, we studied the virus spreading in a complex network using the efficient path and the global dynamic routing algorithms as compared to shortest path strategy. Some previous studies have tried to modify the routing rules to limit the virus spreading, but at the expense of reducing the traffic transport efficiency. This work proposed a solution to overcome this drawback by using a selective vaccination procedure instead of a random vaccination used often in the literature. We found that the selective vaccination succeeded in eradicating the virus better than a pure random intervention for the performant routing algorithm strategies.

  3. A hybrid particle–field molecular dynamics approach: a route toward efficient coarse-grained models for biomembranes

    Milano, Giuseppe; De Nicola, Antonio; Kawakatsu, Toshihiro

    2013-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of the coarse-grained models of phospholipids recently developed by the authors in the frame of a hybrid particle–field molecular dynamics technique. This technique employs a special class of coarse-grained models that are gaining popularity because they allow simulations of large scale systems and, at the same time, they provide sufficiently detailed chemistry for the mapping scheme adopted. The comparison of the computational costs of our approach with standard molecular dynamics simulations is a function of the system size and the number of processors employed in the parallel calculations. Due to the low amount of data exchange, the larger the number of processors, the better are the performances of the hybrid particle–field models. This feature makes these models very promising ones in the exploration of several problems in biophysics. (paper)

  4. Seismic constraints on dynamic links between geomorphic processes and routing of sediment in a steep mountain catchment

    Burtin, A.; Hovius, N.; McArdell, B. W.; Turowski, J. M.; Vergne, J.

    2014-01-01

    Landscape dynamics are determined by interactions amongst geomorphic processes. These interactions allow the effects of tectonic, climatic and seismic perturbations to propagate across topographic domains, and permit the impacts of geomorphic process events to radiate from their point of origin. Visual remote sensing and in situ observations do not fully resolve the spatiotemporal patterns of surface processes in a landscape. As a result, the mechanisms and scales of geomorphic connectivity are poorly understood. Because many surface processes emit seismic signals, seismology can determine their type, location and timing with a resolution that reveals the operation of integral landscapes. Using seismic records, we show how hillslopes and channels in an Alpine catchment are interconnected to produce evolving, sediment-laden flows. This is done for a convective storm, which triggered a sequence of hillslope processes and debris flows. We observe the evolution of these process events and explore the operation of two-way links between mass wasting and channel processes, which are fundamental to the dynamics of most erosional landscapes. We also track the characteristics and propagation of flows along the debris flow channel, relating changes of observed energy to the deposition/mobilization of sediments, and using the spectral content of debris flow seismic signals to qualitatively infer sediment characteristics and channel abrasion potential. This seismological approach can help to test theoretical concepts of landscape dynamics and yield understanding of the nature and efficiency of links between individual geomorphic processes, which is required to accurately model landscape dynamics under changing tectonic or climatic conditions and to anticipate the natural hazard risk associated with specific meteorological events.

  5. Fractional dynamics of globally slow transcription and its impact on deterministic genetic oscillation.

    Kun Wei

    Full Text Available In dynamical systems theory, a system which can be described by differential equations is called a continuous dynamical system. In studies on genetic oscillation, most deterministic models at early stage are usually built on ordinary differential equations (ODE. Therefore, gene transcription which is a vital part in genetic oscillation is presupposed to be a continuous dynamical system by default. However, recent studies argued that discontinuous transcription might be more common than continuous transcription. In this paper, by appending the inserted silent interval lying between two neighboring transcriptional events to the end of the preceding event, we established that the running time for an intact transcriptional event increases and gene transcription thus shows slow dynamics. By globally replacing the original time increment for each state increment by a larger one, we introduced fractional differential equations (FDE to describe such globally slow transcription. The impact of fractionization on genetic oscillation was then studied in two early stage models--the Goodwin oscillator and the Rössler oscillator. By constructing a "dual memory" oscillator--the fractional delay Goodwin oscillator, we suggested that four general requirements for generating genetic oscillation should be revised to be negative feedback, sufficient nonlinearity, sufficient memory and proper balancing of timescale. The numerical study of the fractional Rössler oscillator implied that the globally slow transcription tends to lower the chance of a coupled or more complex nonlinear genetic oscillatory system behaving chaotically.

  6. Fractional dynamics of globally slow transcription and its impact on deterministic genetic oscillation.

    Wei, Kun; Gao, Shilong; Zhong, Suchuan; Ma, Hong

    2012-01-01

    In dynamical systems theory, a system which can be described by differential equations is called a continuous dynamical system. In studies on genetic oscillation, most deterministic models at early stage are usually built on ordinary differential equations (ODE). Therefore, gene transcription which is a vital part in genetic oscillation is presupposed to be a continuous dynamical system by default. However, recent studies argued that discontinuous transcription might be more common than continuous transcription. In this paper, by appending the inserted silent interval lying between two neighboring transcriptional events to the end of the preceding event, we established that the running time for an intact transcriptional event increases and gene transcription thus shows slow dynamics. By globally replacing the original time increment for each state increment by a larger one, we introduced fractional differential equations (FDE) to describe such globally slow transcription. The impact of fractionization on genetic oscillation was then studied in two early stage models--the Goodwin oscillator and the Rössler oscillator. By constructing a "dual memory" oscillator--the fractional delay Goodwin oscillator, we suggested that four general requirements for generating genetic oscillation should be revised to be negative feedback, sufficient nonlinearity, sufficient memory and proper balancing of timescale. The numerical study of the fractional Rössler oscillator implied that the globally slow transcription tends to lower the chance of a coupled or more complex nonlinear genetic oscillatory system behaving chaotically.

  7. Global dynamics in a stoichiometric food chain model with two limiting nutrients.

    Chen, Ming; Fan, Meng; Kuang, Yang

    2017-07-01

    Ecological stoichiometry studies the balance of energy and multiple chemical elements in ecological interactions to establish how the nutrient content affect food-web dynamics and nutrient cycling in ecosystems. In this study, we formulate a food chain with two limiting nutrients in the form of a stoichiometric population model. A comprehensive global analysis of the rich dynamics of the targeted model is explored both analytically and numerically. Chaotic dynamic is observed in this simple stoichiometric food chain model and is compared with traditional model without stoichiometry. The detailed comparison reveals that stoichiometry can reduce the parameter space for chaotic dynamics. Our findings also show that decreasing producer production efficiency may have only a small effect on the consumer growth but a more profound impact on the top predator growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Laser Pulse Production for NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar

    Stysley, Paul R.; Coyle, D. Barry; Clarke, Greg B.; Frese, Erich; Blalock, Gordon; Morey, Peter; Kay, Richard B.; Poulios, Demetrios; Hersh, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The Lasers and Electro-Optics Branch at Goddard Space Flight Center has been tasked with building the Lasers for the Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar Mission, to be installed on the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) on the International Space Station (ISS)1. GEDI will use three NASA-developed lasers, each coupled with a Beam Dithering Unit (BDU) to produce three sets of staggered footprints on the Earth's surface to accurately measure global biomass. We will report on the design, assembly progress, test results, and delivery process of this laser system.

  9. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  10. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  11. The Silk Route from Land to Sea

    Jack Weatherford

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Silk Route reached its historic and economic apogee under the Mongol Empire (1207–1368, as a direct result of the policies of Chinggis Khan (Genghis Khan and his successors. Because the land network proved inefficient for the amount of goods needing transport from one part of the empire to another, the Mongols expanded the Silk Route to ocean shipping and thus created the first Maritime Silk Route. The sea traffic initially expanded the land routes but soon strangled them. With the expansion of the Maritime Silk Route through the fourteenth century, the land connections reverted to local networks and lost their global importance.

  12. Analysis Evacuation Route for KM Zahro Express on Fire Condition using Agent Based Modeling and Fire Dynamics Simulatior

    Trika Pitana

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Safety is the thing that needs to be preferred by users of transport, passengers should also understand about safety procedures and evacuation procedures in the means of transport. There have been many accidents that happen in the world of transport, particularly in the shipping world, from 2010 to 2016 is no more than 50 accidents of ships in accordance with the cause recorded by KNKT (Komisi Nasional Keselamatan Transportasi. On this research was discussed the evacuation time on the ship KM Zahro express that occurred earlier in the year 2017 in the Kepulauan Seribu, DKI Jakarta. Almost all passenger dead caused by fire from power source in engine room. This thesis will explaine about evacuation time and dangers from fire that interfere the process of evacuation. The methods used are Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS for modeling fire simulation. Agent-Based Modeling software (pathfinder and Fire Dynamics Simulator software (pyrosim are used to calculate time evacuation in normal condition and fire condition of KM Zahro Express. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is a modeling method that aims to model complex problems based on real cases. Agent-Based Modeling and Simulator (ABMS is designed to model a place that has a seat, path, exit door, humans, and others. Pyrosim is a graphical user interface for the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS. FDS models can predict smoke, temperature, carbon monoxide, and other substances during fires.  In this case the existing models can be used to plan and prepare an emergency if unwanted things happen. As well as using basic rules which refer to the Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS and International Maritime Organization (IMO. Result of Evacuation simulation calculation on emergency conditions (two rear exit doors will be closed that match at actually condition is 29,783 minutes (respon is not taken in this simulation, calculation results obtained from simulation of

  13. Devil's carpet of topological entropy and complexity of global dynamical behavior

    Cao, K.-F.; Zhang, X.-S.; Zhou Zhong; Peng, S.-L.

    2003-01-01

    For bimodal maps the concept of an equal topological entropy class (ETEC) is established by the dual star products. All the infinitely many ETEC plateaus and single points are harmonically organized in the kneading parameter plane, they construct a multifractal devil's carpet, which possesses a perfect subregion similarity and a dual central symmetry. The entropy devil's carpet reveals the complexity of global dynamical behavior in the whole parameter plane of bimodal systems

  14. Dynamical analysis of a cubic Liénard system with global parameters

    Chen, Hebai; Chen, Xingwu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper we investigate the dynamical behaviour of a cubic Liénard system with global parameters. After analysing the qualitative properties of all the equilibria and judging the existences of limit cycles and homoclinic loops for the whole parameter plane, we give the bifurcation diagram and phase portraits. Phase portraits are global if there exist limit cycles and local otherwise. We prove that parameters lie in a connected region, not just on a curve, usually in the parameter plane when the system has one homoclinic loop. Moreover, for global parameters we give a positive answer to conjecture 3.2 of (1998 Nonlinearity 11 1505-19) in the case of exactly two equilibria about the existence of some function whose graph is exactly the surface of double limit cycles. Supported by NSFC 11471228, 11172246 and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

  15. Global Dynamics of HIV Infection of CD4+ T Cells and Macrophages

    A. M. Elaiw

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the global dynamics of an HIV infection model describing the interaction of the HIV with CD4+ T cells and macrophages. The incidence rate of virus infection and the growth rate of the uninfected CD4+ T cells and macrophages are given by general functions. We have incorporated two types of distributed delays into the model to account for the time delay between the time the uninfected cells are contacted by the virus particle and the time for the emission of infectious (matures virus particles. We have established a set of conditions which are sufficient for the global stability of the steady states of the model. Using Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariant principle, we have proven that if the basic reproduction number R0 is less than or equal to unity, then the uninfected steady state is globally asymptotically stable (GAS, and if the infected steady state exists, then it is GAS.

  16. Mapping global surface water inundation dynamics using synergistic information from SMAP, AMSR2 and Landsat

    Du, J.; Kimball, J. S.; Galantowicz, J. F.; Kim, S.; Chan, S.; Reichle, R. H.; Jones, L. A.; Watts, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    A method to monitor global land surface water (fw) inundation dynamics was developed by exploiting the enhanced fw sensitivity of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The L-band fw (fwLBand) retrievals were derived using SMAP H-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations and predefined L-band reference microwave emissivities for water and land endmembers. Potential soil moisture and vegetation contributions to the microwave signal were represented from overlapping higher frequency Tb observations from AMSR2. The resulting fwLBand global record has high temporal sampling (1-3 days) and 36-km spatial resolution. The fwLBand annual averages corresponded favourably (R=0.84, pretrievals showed favourable classification accuracy for water (commission error 31.84%; omission error 28.08%) and land (commission error 0.82%; omission error 0.99%) and seasonal wet and dry periods when compared to independent water maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The new fwLBand algorithms and continuing SMAP and AMSR2 operations provide for near real-time, multi-scale monitoring of global surface water inundation dynamics, potentially benefiting hydrological monitoring, flood assessments, and global climate and carbon modeling.

  17. Common species link global ecosystems to climate change: dynamical evidence in the planktonic fossil record.

    Hannisdal, Bjarte; Haaga, Kristian Agasøster; Reitan, Trond; Diego, David; Liow, Lee Hsiang

    2017-07-12

    Common species shape the world around us, and changes in their commonness signify large-scale shifts in ecosystem structure and function. However, our understanding of long-term ecosystem response to environmental forcing in the deep past is centred on species richness, neglecting the disproportional impact of common species. Here, we use common and widespread species of planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments to track changes in observed global occupancy (proportion of sampled sites at which a species is present and observed) through the turbulent climatic history of the last 65 Myr. Our approach is sensitive to relative changes in global abundance of the species set and robust to factors that bias richness estimators. Using three independent methods for detecting causality, we show that the observed global occupancy of planktonic foraminifera has been dynamically coupled to past oceanographic changes captured in deep-ocean temperature reconstructions. The causal inference does not imply a direct mechanism, but is consistent with an indirect, time-delayed causal linkage. Given the strong quantitative evidence that a dynamical coupling exists, we hypothesize that mixotrophy (symbiont hosting) may be an ecological factor linking the global abundance of planktonic foraminifera to long-term climate changes via the relative extent of oligotrophic oceans. © 2017 The Authors.

  18. Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission

    Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

    2014-01-01

    A challenge to multi-group epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology is the exploration of global dynamics. Here we formulate multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission via contaminated water. Under biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number R 0 is derived and established as a sharp threshold that completely determines the global dynamics of the system. In particular, we prove that if R 0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; whereas if R 0 >1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and thus unique, and the disease persists in all groups. Since the weight matrix for weighted digraphs may be reducible, the afore-mentioned approach is not directly applicable to our model. For the proofs we utilize the classical method of Lyapunov, graph-theoretic results developed recently and a new combinatorial identity. Since the multiple transmission pathways may correspond to the real world, the obtained results are of biological significance and possible generalizations of the model are also discussed

  19. Testing the performance of a Dynamic Global Ecosystem Model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure

    Kucharik, Christopher J.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Delire, Christine; Fisher, Veronica A.; Coe, Michael T.; Lenters, John D.; Young-Molling, Christine; Ramankutty, Navin; Norman, John M.; Gower, Stith T.

    2000-09-01

    While a new class of Dynamic Global Ecosystem Models (DGEMs) has emerged in the past few years as an important tool for describing global biogeochemical cycles and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, these models are still largely untested. Here we analyze the behavior of a new DGEM and compare the results to global-scale observations of water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. In this study, we use version 2 of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), which includes several major improvements and additions to the prototype model developed by Foley et al. [1996]. IBIS is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere; the model represents a wide range of processes, including land surface physics, canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics and competition, and carbon and nutrient cycling. The model generates global simulations of the surface water balance (e.g., runoff), the terrestrial carbon balance (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem exchange, soil carbon, aboveground and belowground litter, and soil CO2 fluxes), and vegetation structure (e.g., biomass, leaf area index, and vegetation composition). In order to test the performance of the model, we have assembled a wide range of continental and global-scale data, including measurements of river discharge, net primary production, vegetation structure, root biomass, soil carbon, litter carbon, and soil CO2 flux. Using these field data and model results for the contemporary biosphere (1965-1994), our evaluation shows that simulated patterns of runoff, NPP, biomass, leaf area index, soil carbon, and total soil CO2 flux agree reasonably well with measurements that have been compiled from numerous ecosystems. These results also compare favorably to other global model results.

  20. Understanding system dynamics of an adaptive enzyme network from globally profiled kinetic parameters.

    Chiang, Austin W T; Liu, Wei-Chung; Charusanti, Pep; Hwang, Ming-Jing

    2014-01-15

    A major challenge in mathematical modeling of biological systems is to determine how model parameters contribute to systems dynamics. As biological processes are often complex in nature, it is desirable to address this issue using a systematic approach. Here, we propose a simple methodology that first performs an enrichment test to find patterns in the values of globally profiled kinetic parameters with which a model can produce the required system dynamics; this is then followed by a statistical test to elucidate the association between individual parameters and different parts of the system's dynamics. We demonstrate our methodology on a prototype biological system of perfect adaptation dynamics, namely the chemotaxis model for Escherichia coli. Our results agreed well with those derived from experimental data and theoretical studies in the literature. Using this model system, we showed that there are motifs in kinetic parameters and that these motifs are governed by constraints of the specified system dynamics. A systematic approach based on enrichment statistical tests has been developed to elucidate the relationships between model parameters and the roles they play in affecting system dynamics of a prototype biological network. The proposed approach is generally applicable and therefore can find wide use in systems biology modeling research.

  1. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  2. Ensuring dynamic strategic fit of firms that compete globally in alliances and networks: proposing the Global SNA - Strategic Network Analysis - framework

    T. Diana L. Van Aduard de Macedo-Soares

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In order to sustain their competitive advantage in the current increasingly globalized and turbulent context, more and more firms are competing globally in alliances and networks that oblige them to adopt new managerial paradigms and tools. However, their strategic analyses rarely take into account the strategic implications of these alliances and networks, considering their global relational characteristics, admittedly because of a lack of adequate tools to do so. This paper contributes to research that seeks to fill this gap by proposing the Global Strategic Network Analysis - SNA - framework. Its purpose is to help firms that compete globally in alliances and networks to carry out their strategic assessments and decision-making with a view to ensuring dynamic strategic fit from both a global and relational perspective.

  3. Nationwide genetic surveillance of Plasmodium vivax in Papua New Guinea reveals heterogeneous transmission dynamics and routes of migration amongst subdivided populations.

    Fola, Abebe A; Nate, Elma; Abby Harrison, G L; Barnadas, Céline; Hetzel, Manuel W; Iga, Jonah; Siba, Peter; Mueller, Ivo; Barry, Alyssa E

    2018-03-01

    The Asia Pacific Leaders in Malaria Alliance (APLMA) have committed to eliminate malaria from the region by 2030. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has the highest malaria burden in the Asia-Pacific region but with the intensification of control efforts since 2005, transmission has been dramatically reduced and Plasmodium vivax is now the dominant malaria infection in some parts of the country. To gain a better understanding of the transmission dynamics and migration patterns of P. vivax in PNG, here we investigate population structure in eight geographically and ecologically distinct regions of the country. A total of 219 P. vivax isolates (16-30 per population) were successfully haplotyped using 10 microsatellite markers. A wide range of genetic diversity (H e =0.37-0.87, R s =3.60-7.58) and significant multilocus linkage disequilibrium (LD) was observed in six of the eight populations (I A S =0.08-0.15 p-value<0.05) reflecting a spectrum of transmission intensities across the country. Genetic differentiation between regions was evident (Jost's D=0.07-0.72), with increasing divergence of populations with geographic distance. Overall, P. vivax isolates clustered into three major genetic populations subdividing the Mainland lowland and coastal regions, the Islands and the Highlands. P. vivax gene flow follows major human migration routes, and there was higher gene flow amongst Mainland parasite populations than among Island populations. The Central Province (samples collected in villages close to the capital city, Port Moresby), acts as a sink for imported infections from the three major endemic areas. These insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics and population networks will inform targeted strategies to contain malaria infections and to prevent the spread of drug resistance in PNG. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Extended shortest path selection for package routing of complex networks

    Ye, Fan; Zhang, Lei; Wang, Bing-Hong; Liu, Lu; Zhang, Xing-Yi

    The routing strategy plays a very important role in complex networks such as Internet system and Peer-to-Peer networks. However, most of the previous work concentrates only on the path selection, e.g. Flooding and Random Walk, or finding the shortest path (SP) and rarely considering the local load information such as SP and Distance Vector Routing. Flow-based Routing mainly considers load balance and still cannot achieve best optimization. Thus, in this paper, we propose a novel dynamic routing strategy on complex network by incorporating the local load information into SP algorithm to enhance the traffic flow routing optimization. It was found that the flow in a network is greatly affected by the waiting time of the network, so we should not consider only choosing optimized path for package transformation but also consider node congestion. As a result, the packages should be transmitted with a global optimized path with smaller congestion and relatively short distance. Analysis work and simulation experiments show that the proposed algorithm can largely enhance the network flow with the maximum throughput within an acceptable calculating time. The detailed analysis of the algorithm will also be provided for explaining the efficiency.

  5. Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale.

    Pinky Langat

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally.

  6. Remotely Sensed High-Resolution Global Cloud Dynamics for Predicting Ecosystem and Biodiversity Distributions.

    Adam M Wilson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cloud cover can influence numerous important ecological processes, including reproduction, growth, survival, and behavior, yet our assessment of its importance at the appropriate spatial scales has remained remarkably limited. If captured over a large extent yet at sufficiently fine spatial grain, cloud cover dynamics may provide key information for delineating a variety of habitat types and predicting species distributions. Here, we develop new near-global, fine-grain (≈1 km monthly cloud frequencies from 15 y of twice-daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS satellite images that expose spatiotemporal cloud cover dynamics of previously undocumented global complexity. We demonstrate that cloud cover varies strongly in its geographic heterogeneity and that the direct, observation-based nature of cloud-derived metrics can improve predictions of habitats, ecosystem, and species distributions with reduced spatial autocorrelation compared to commonly used interpolated climate data. These findings support the fundamental role of remote sensing as an effective lens through which to understand and globally monitor the fine-grain spatial variability of key biodiversity and ecosystem properties.

  7. Genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B viruses on a global scale

    Langat, Pinky; Bowden, Thomas A.; Edwards, Stephanie; Gall, Astrid; Rambaut, Andrew; Daniels, Rodney S.; Russell, Colin A.; Pybus, Oliver G.; McCauley, John

    2017-01-01

    The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally. PMID:29284042

  8. The Global Nuclear Futures Model: A Dynamic Simulation Tool for Energy Strategies

    Bixler, N.E.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Nuclear Futures Model (GNFM) is a dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of nuclear energy, nuclear materials storage and disposition, global nuclear materials management, and nuclear proliferation risk. It links nuclear energy and other energy shares dynamically to greenhouse gas emissions and twelve other measures of environmental impact. It presents historical data from 1990 to 2000 and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. More specifically, it contains separate modules for energy, the nuclear fuel cycle front end, the nuclear fuel cycle back end, defense nuclear materials, environmental impacts, and measures of the potential for nuclear proliferation. It is globally integrated but also breaks out five regions of the world so that environmental impacts and nuclear proliferation concerns can be evaluated on a regional basis. The five regions are the United States of America (USA), The Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the OECD nations excluding the USA, and the rest of the world (ROW). (author)

  9. Global patterns in Earth's dynamic topography since the Jurassic: the role of subducted slabs

    M. Rubey

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of Earth's long-wavelength surface dynamic topography since the Jurassic using a series of high-resolution global mantle convection models. These models are Earth-like in terms of convective vigour, thermal structure, surface heat-flux and the geographic distribution of heterogeneity. The models generate a degree-2-dominated spectrum of dynamic topography with negative amplitudes above subducted slabs (i.e. circum-Pacific regions and southern Eurasia and positive amplitudes elsewhere (i.e. Africa, north-western Eurasia and the central Pacific. Model predictions are compared with published observations and subsidence patterns from well data, both globally and for the Australian and southern African regions. We find that our models reproduce the long-wavelength component of these observations, although observed smaller-scale variations are not reproduced. We subsequently define geodynamic rules for how different surface tectonic settings are affected by mantle processes: (i locations in the vicinity of a subduction zone show large negative dynamic topography amplitudes; (ii regions far away from convergent margins feature long-term positive dynamic topography; and (iii rapid variations in dynamic support occur along the margins of overriding plates (e.g. the western US and at points located on a plate that rapidly approaches a subduction zone (e.g. India and the Arabia Peninsula. Our models provide a predictive quantitative framework linking mantle convection with plate tectonics and sedimentary basin evolution, thus improving our understanding of how subduction and mantle convection affect the spatio-temporal evolution of basin architecture.

  10. Roots/Routes: Part II

    Swanson, Dalene M.

    2009-01-01

    This narrative acts as an articulation of a journey of many routes. Following Part I of the same research journey of rootedness/routedness, it debates the nature of transformation and transcendence beyond personal and political paradoxes informed by neoliberalism and related repressive globalizing discourses. Through a more personal, descriptive,…

  11. Global sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model for gene expression in Drosophila embryos

    McCarthy, Gregory D.; Drewell, Robert A.

    2015-01-01

    It is well known that gene regulation is a tightly controlled process in early organismal development. However, the roles of key processes involved in this regulation, such as transcription and translation, are less well understood, and mathematical modeling approaches in this field are still in their infancy. In recent studies, biologists have taken precise measurements of protein and mRNA abundance to determine the relative contributions of key factors involved in regulating protein levels in mammalian cells. We now approach this question from a mathematical modeling perspective. In this study, we use a simple dynamic mathematical model that incorporates terms representing transcription, translation, mRNA and protein decay, and diffusion in an early Drosophila embryo. We perform global sensitivity analyses on this model using various different initial conditions and spatial and temporal outputs. Our results indicate that transcription and translation are often the key parameters to determine protein abundance. This observation is in close agreement with the experimental results from mammalian cells for various initial conditions at particular time points, suggesting that a simple dynamic model can capture the qualitative behavior of a gene. Additionally, we find that parameter sensitivites are temporally dynamic, illustrating the importance of conducting a thorough global sensitivity analysis across multiple time points when analyzing mathematical models of gene regulation. PMID:26157608

  12. Evaluation of atmospheric aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics

    Chen, Min

    The increasing human activities have produced large amounts of air pollutants ejected into the atmosphere, in which atmospheric aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered to be especially important because of their negative impacts on human health and their impacts on global climate through either their direct radiative effect or indirect effect on land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. This dissertation dedicates to quantifying and evaluating the aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem dynamics using a modeling approach. An ecosystem model, the integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (iTem), is developed to simulate biophysical and biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems. A two-broad-band atmospheric radiative transfer model together with the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measured atmospheric parameters are used to well estimate global downward solar radiation and the direct and diffuse components in comparison with observations. The atmospheric radiative transfer modeling framework were used to quantify the aerosol direct radiative effect, showing that aerosol loadings cause 18.7 and 12.8 W m -2 decrease of direct-beam Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) and Near Infrared Radiation (NIR) respectively, and 5.2 and 4.4 W m -2 increase of diffuse PAR and NIR, respectively, leading to a total 21.9 W m-2 decrease of total downward solar radiation over the global land surface during the period of 2003-2010. The results also suggested that the aerosol effect may be overwhelmed by clouds because of the stronger extinction and scattering ability of clouds. Applications of the iTem with solar radiation data and with or without considering the aerosol loadings shows that aerosol loading enhances the terrestrial productions [Gross Primary Production (GPP), Net Primary Production (NPP) and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)] and carbon emissions through plant respiration (RA) in global terrestrial ecosystems over the

  13. China's "energy revolution": measuring the status quo, modelling regional dynamics and assessing global impacts

    Mischke, Peggy

    As the world's largest economy in transition, China plays a growing role in global energy markets, clean technology deployment and climate change negotiations. The Chinese president Xi Jinping called in June 2014 for an “energy revolution” of the country’s “energy production and consumption habits......, expanded and applied in this regard. The theories underlying this research are stemming from various scientific disciplines, such as energy and power engineering, macro- and energy-economics, and power project finance. Cross-cutting aspects are the harmonization of Chinese and international energy...... top-down and bottom-up global energy planning tools to model future regional dynamics of China's energy sector; and (v) an assessment of electricity generation costs of the first operational concentrated solar power technologies in China. The results of this thesis are relevant for a broad scientific...

  14. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    Parshad, Rana

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect technique. The model incorporates female mosquitoes sexual preference for wild males over sterile males. We show global existence of strong solution for the system. We then derive uniform estimates to prove the existence of a global attractor in L-2(Omega), for the system. The attractor is shown to be L-infinity(Omega) regular and posess state of extinction, if the injection of sterile males is large enough. We also provide upper bounds on the Hausdorff and fractal dimensions of the attractor.

  15. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  16. Coping with the Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent Monetary Macro-dynamics of Global Warming

    Giraud, Gael; Mc Isaac, Florent; Bovari, Emmanuel; Zatsepina, Ekaterina

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a macro-economic model of endogenous growth that enables to take into consideration both the economic impact of climate change and the pivotal role of private debt. Using a Goodwin-Keen approach, based on the Lotka-Volterra logic, we couple its nonlinear dynamics of underemployment and income distribution with abatement costs. Moreover, various damage functions a la Nordhaus and Dietz-Stern reflect the loss in final production due to the temperature increase caused by the rising levels of CO_2 emissions. An empirical estimation of the model at the world-scale enables us to simulate plausible trajectories for the planetary business-as-usual scenario. Our main finding is that, even though the short-run impact of climate change on economic fundamentals may seem prima facie rather minor, its long-run dynamic consequences may lead to an extreme downside. Under plausible circumstances, global warming forces the private sector to leverage in order to compensate for output losses; the private debt overhang may eventually induce a global financial collapse, even before climate change could cause serious damage to the production sector. Under more severe conditions, the interplay between global warming and debt may lead to a secular stagnation followed by a collapse in the second half of this century. We analyze the extent to which slower demographic growth or higher carbon pricing allow a global breakdown to be avoided. The paper concludes by examining the conditions under which the +1.5 C target, adopted by the Paris Agreement (2015), could be reached. (authors)

  17. Dynamics on networks: the role of local dynamics and global networks on the emergence of hypersynchronous neural activity.

    Helmut Schmidt

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Graph theory has evolved into a useful tool for studying complex brain networks inferred from a variety of measures of neural activity, including fMRI, DTI, MEG and EEG. In the study of neurological disorders, recent work has discovered differences in the structure of graphs inferred from patient and control cohorts. However, most of these studies pursue a purely observational approach; identifying correlations between properties of graphs and the cohort which they describe, without consideration of the underlying mechanisms. To move beyond this necessitates the development of computational modeling approaches to appropriately interpret network interactions and the alterations in brain dynamics they permit, which in the field of complexity sciences is known as dynamics on networks. In this study we describe the development and application of this framework using modular networks of Kuramoto oscillators. We use this framework to understand functional networks inferred from resting state EEG recordings of a cohort of 35 adults with heterogeneous idiopathic generalized epilepsies and 40 healthy adult controls. Taking emergent synchrony across the global network as a proxy for seizures, our study finds that the critical strength of coupling required to synchronize the global network is significantly decreased for the epilepsy cohort for functional networks inferred from both theta (3-6 Hz and low-alpha (6-9 Hz bands. We further identify left frontal regions as a potential driver of seizure activity within these networks. We also explore the ability of our method to identify individuals with epilepsy, observing up to 80% predictive power through use of receiver operating characteristic analysis. Collectively these findings demonstrate that a computer model based analysis of routine clinical EEG provides significant additional information beyond standard clinical interpretation, which should ultimately enable a more appropriate mechanistic

  18. Global format for energy-momentum based time integration in nonlinear dynamics

    Krenk, Steen

    2014-01-01

    A global format is developed for momentum and energy consistent time integration of second‐order dynamic systems with general nonlinear stiffness. The algorithm is formulated by integrating the state‐space equations of motion over the time increment. The internal force is first represented...... of mean value products at the element level or explicit use of a geometric stiffness matrix. An optional monotonic algorithmic damping, increasing with response frequency, is developed in terms of a single damping parameter. In the solution procedure, the velocity is eliminated and the nonlinear...

  19. Global existence and exponential growth for a viscoelastic wave equation with dynamic boundary conditions

    Gerbi, Sté phane; Said-Houari, Belkacem

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this work is to study a model of the wave equation with dynamic boundary conditions and a viscoelastic term. First, applying the Faedo-Galerkin method combined with the fixed point theorem, we show the existence and uniqueness of a local in time solution. Second, we show that under some restrictions on the initial data, the solution continues to exist globally in time. On the other hand, if the interior source dominates the boundary damping, then the solution is unbounded and grows as an exponential function. In addition, in the absence of the strong damping, then the solution ceases to exist and blows up in finite time.

  20. Local and global synchronization in general complex dynamical networks with delay coupling

    Lu Jianquan; Ho, Daniel W.C.

    2008-01-01

    Local and global synchronization of complex dynamical networks are studied in this paper. Some simple yet generic criteria ensuring delay-independent and delay-dependent synchronization are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be verified easily via interior-point algorithm. The assumption that the coupling configuration matrix is symmetric and irreducible, which is frequently used in other literatures, is removed. A network with a fixed delay and a special coupling scheme is given as an example to illustrate the theoretical results and the effectiveness of the proposed synchronization scheme

  1. Global existence and exponential growth for a viscoelastic wave equation with dynamic boundary conditions

    Gerbi, Stéphane

    2013-01-15

    The goal of this work is to study a model of the wave equation with dynamic boundary conditions and a viscoelastic term. First, applying the Faedo-Galerkin method combined with the fixed point theorem, we show the existence and uniqueness of a local in time solution. Second, we show that under some restrictions on the initial data, the solution continues to exist globally in time. On the other hand, if the interior source dominates the boundary damping, then the solution is unbounded and grows as an exponential function. In addition, in the absence of the strong damping, then the solution ceases to exist and blows up in finite time.

  2. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    Prusa, Joseph

    2012-05-08

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the physics of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer- reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

  3. Gr-GDHP: A New Architecture for Globalized Dual Heuristic Dynamic Programming.

    Zhong, Xiangnan; Ni, Zhen; He, Haibo

    2017-10-01

    Goal representation globalized dual heuristic dynamic programming (Gr-GDHP) method is proposed in this paper. A goal neural network is integrated into the traditional GDHP method providing an internal reinforcement signal and its derivatives to help the control and learning process. From the proposed architecture, it is shown that the obtained internal reinforcement signal and its derivatives can be able to adjust themselves online over time rather than a fixed or predefined function in literature. Furthermore, the obtained derivatives can directly contribute to the objective function of the critic network, whose learning process is thus simplified. Numerical simulation studies are applied to show the performance of the proposed Gr-GDHP method and compare the results with other existing adaptive dynamic programming designs. We also investigate this method on a ball-and-beam balancing system. The statistical simulation results are presented for both the Gr-GDHP and the GDHP methods to demonstrate the improved learning and controlling performance.

  4. Dynamics in non-globally-hyperbolic static spacetimes: III. Anti-de Sitter spacetime

    Ishibashi, Akihiro; Wald, Robert M

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, there has been considerable interest in theories formulated in anti-de Sitter (AdS) spacetime. However, AdS spacetime fails to be globally hyperbolic, so a classical field satisfying a hyperbolic wave equation on AdS spacetime need not have a well-defined dynamics. Nevertheless, AdS spacetime is static, so the possible rules of dynamics for a field satisfying a linear wave equation are constrained by our previous general analysis-given in paper II-where it was shown that the possible choices of dynamics correspond to choices of positive, self-adjoint extensions of a certain differential operator, A. In the present paper, we reduce the analysis of electromagnetic and gravitational perturbations in AdS spacetime to scalar wave equations. We then apply our general results to analyse the possible dynamics of scalar, electromagnetic and gravitational perturbations in AdS spacetime. In AdS spacetime, the freedom (if any) in choosing self-adjoint extensions of A corresponds to the freedom (if any) in choosing suitable boundary conditions at infinity, so our analysis determines all the possible boundary conditions that can be imposed at infinity. In particular, we show that other boundary conditions besides the Dirichlet and Neumann conditions may be possible, depending on the value of the effective mass for scalar field perturbations, and depending on the number of spacetime dimensions and type of mode for electromagnetic and gravitational perturbations

  5. Sequential assimilation of multi-mission dynamical topography into a global finite-element ocean model

    S. Skachko

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on an accurate estimation of ocean circulation via assimilation of satellite measurements of ocean dynamical topography into the global finite-element ocean model (FEOM. The dynamical topography data are derived from a complex analysis of multi-mission altimetry data combined with a referenced earth geoid. The assimilation is split into two parts. First, the mean dynamic topography is adjusted. To this end an adiabatic pressure correction method is used which reduces model divergence from the real evolution. Second, a sequential assimilation technique is applied to improve the representation of thermodynamical processes by assimilating the time varying dynamic topography. A method is used according to which the temperature and salinity are updated following the vertical structure of the first baroclinic mode. It is shown that the method leads to a partially successful assimilation approach reducing the rms difference between the model and data from 16 cm to 2 cm. This improvement of the mean state is accompanied by significant improvement of temporal variability in our analysis. However, it remains suboptimal, showing a tendency in the forecast phase of returning toward a free run without data assimilation. Both the mean difference and standard deviation of the difference between the forecast and observation data are reduced as the result of assimilation.

  6. Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

    Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

    2017-12-01

    The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

  7. Global variables and the dynamics or relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions

    Cugnon, J.; L'Hote, D.

    1983-01-01

    Various global variables providing a simple description of high multiplicity events are reviewed. Many of them are calculated in the framework of an intra-nuclear cascade model, which describes the collision process as a series of binary on-shell relativistic baryon-baryon collisions and which includes inelasticity through the production of δ-resonances. The calculations are first made for the Ar+KCl system at 0.8 GeV/A, with global variables including either all the nucleons or only the participant nucleons. The shape and the orientation of the ellipsoid of sphericity are particularly investigated. For both cases, on the average, the large axis of the ellipsoid is found to point in the beam direction. This result is discussed in comparison with hydrodynamics predictions and in relation with the mean free path. A kind of small 'bounce-off effect' is detected for intermediate impact parameters. The possibility of extracting the value of the impact parameter b from the value of a global variable is shown to depend upon the variation of this variable with b and upon the fluctuation of the global variable for a given impact parameter. A quality factor is defined to quantify this possibility. No current global variable seems to be more appropriate than the number of participant nucleons for the impact parameter selection. The physical origin of the fluctuations inside the intranuclear cascade model is discussed and the possibility of extracting useful information on the dynamics of the system from the fluctuations is pointed out. The energy dependence of our results is discussed. Some results of the calculations at 250 and 400 MeV/A are also presented for the same system Ar+KCl. (orig.)

  8. Regional to Global Assessments of Phytoplankton Dynamics From The SeaWiFS Mission

    Siegel, David; Behrenfeld, Michael; Maritorena, Stephanie; McClain, Charles R.; Antoine, David; Bailey, Sean W.; Bontempi, Paula S.; Boss, Emmanuel S.; Dierssen, Heidi M.; Doney, Scott C.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Photosynthetic production of organic matter by microscopic oceanic phytoplankton fuels ocean ecosystems and contributes roughly half of the Earth's net primary production. For 13 years, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission provided the first consistent, synoptic observations of global ocean ecosystems. Changes in the surface chlorophyll concentration, the primary biological property retrieved from SeaWiFS, have traditionally been used as a metric for phytoplankton abundance and its distribution largely reflects patterns in vertical nutrient transport. On regional to global scales, chlorophyll concentrations covary with sea surface temperature (SST) because SST changes reflect light and nutrient conditions. However, the oceanmay be too complex to be well characterized using a single index such as the chlorophyll concentration. A semi-analytical bio-optical algorithm is used to help interpret regional to global SeaWiFS chlorophyll observations from using three independent, well-validated ocean color data products; the chlorophyll a concentration, absorption by CDM and particulate backscattering. First, we show that observed long-term, global-scale trends in standard chlorophyll retrievals are likely compromised by coincident changes in CDM. Second, we partition the chlorophyll signal into a component due to phytoplankton biomass changes and a component caused by physiological adjustments in intracellular chlorophyll concentrations to changes in mixed layer light levels. We show that biomass changes dominate chlorophyll signals for the high latitude seas and where persistent vertical upwelling is known to occur, while physiological processes dominate chlorophyll variability over much of the tropical and subtropical oceans. The SeaWiFS data set demonstrates complexity in the interpretation of changes in regional to global phytoplankton distributions and illustrates limitations for the assessment of phytoplankton dynamics using chlorophyll

  9. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  10. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  11. Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle.

    Laura Trotta

    Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.

  12. A method of recovering the initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices based on symbolic dynamics

    Sun Li-Sha; Kang Xiao-Yun; Zhang Qiong; Lin Lan-Xin

    2011-01-01

    Based on symbolic dynamics, a novel computationally efficient algorithm is proposed to estimate the unknown initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices (CMLs). It is proved that not all inverse chaotic mapping functions are satisfied for contraction mapping. It is found that the values in phase space do not always converge on their initial values with respect to sufficient backward iteration of the symbolic vectors in terms of global convergence or divergence (CD). Both CD property and the coupling strength are directly related to the mapping function of the existing CML. Furthermore, the CD properties of Logistic, Bernoulli, and Tent chaotic mapping functions are investigated and compared. Various simulation results and the performances of the initial vector estimation with different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are also provided to confirm the proposed algorithm. Finally, based on the spatiotemporal chaotic characteristics of the CML, the conditions of estimating the initial vectors using symbolic dynamics are discussed. The presented method provides both theoretical and experimental results for better understanding and characterizing the behaviours of spatiotemporal chaotic systems. (general)

  13. A method of recovering the initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices based on symbolic dynamics

    Sun, Li-Sha; Kang, Xiao-Yun; Zhang, Qiong; Lin, Lan-Xin

    2011-12-01

    Based on symbolic dynamics, a novel computationally efficient algorithm is proposed to estimate the unknown initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices (CMLs). It is proved that not all inverse chaotic mapping functions are satisfied for contraction mapping. It is found that the values in phase space do not always converge on their initial values with respect to sufficient backward iteration of the symbolic vectors in terms of global convergence or divergence (CD). Both CD property and the coupling strength are directly related to the mapping function of the existing CML. Furthermore, the CD properties of Logistic, Bernoulli, and Tent chaotic mapping functions are investigated and compared. Various simulation results and the performances of the initial vector estimation with different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are also provided to confirm the proposed algorithm. Finally, based on the spatiotemporal chaotic characteristics of the CML, the conditions of estimating the initial vectors using symbolic dynamics are discussed. The presented method provides both theoretical and experimental results for better understanding and characterizing the behaviours of spatiotemporal chaotic systems.

  14. Making Sense of Dynamic Systems: How Our Understanding of Stocks and Flows Depends on a Global Perspective.

    Fischer, Helen; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

    2016-03-01

    Stocks and flows (SF) are building blocks of dynamic systems: Stocks change through inflows and outflows, such as our bank balance changing with withdrawals and deposits, or atmospheric CO2 with absorptions and emissions. However, people make systematic errors when trying to infer the behavior of dynamic systems, termed SF failure, whose cognitive explanations are yet unknown. We argue that SF failure appears when people focus on specific system elements (local processing), rather than on the system structure and gestalt (global processing). Using a standard SF task (n = 148), SF failure decreased by (a) a global as opposed to local task format; (b) individual global as opposed to local processing styles; and (c) global as opposed to local perceptual priming. These results converge toward local processing as an explanation for SF failure. We discuss theoretical and practical implications on the connections between the scope of attention and understanding of dynamic systems. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  15. Global Water Surface Dynamics: Toward a Near Real Time Monitoring Using Landsat and Sentinel Data

    Pekel, J. F.; Belward, A.; Gorelick, N.

    2017-12-01

    Global surface water dynamics and its long-term changes have been documented at 30m spatial resolution using the entire multi-temporal orthorectified Landsat 5, 7 and 8 archive for the years 1984 to 2015. This validated dataset recorded the months and years when water was present, where occurrence changed and what form changes took (in terms of seasonality), documents inter-annual variability, and multi-annual trends. This information is freely available from the global surface water explorer https://global-surface-water.appspot.com. Here we extend this work (doi:10.1038/nature20584 ) by combining post 2015 Landsat 7 and 8 data with imagery from the Copernicus program's Sentinel 2a and b satellites. Using these data in combination improves the spatial resolution (from 30m to a nominal 10m) and temporal resolution (from 8 days to 4 days revisit time at the equator). The improved geographic and temporal completeness of the combined Landsat / Sentinel dataset also offers new opportunities for the identification and characterization of seasonally occurring waterbodies. These improvements are also being examined in the light of reporting progress against Agenda 2030's Sustainable Development Goal 6, especially the indicator used to measure 'change in the extent of water-related ecosystems over time'.

  16. Dynamical reconstruction of the global ocean state during the Last Glacial Maximum

    Kurahashi-Nakamura, Takasumi; Paul, André; Losch, Martin

    2017-04-01

    The global ocean state for the modern age and for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was dynamically reconstructed with a sophisticated data assimilation technique. A substantial amount of data including global seawater temperature, salinity (only for the modern estimate), and the isotopic composition of oxygen and carbon (only in the Atlantic for the LGM) were integrated into an ocean general circulation model with the help of the adjoint method, thereby the model was optimized to reconstruct plausible continuous fields of tracers, overturning circulation and water mass distribution. The adjoint-based LGM state estimation of this study represents the state of the art in terms of the length of forward model runs, the number of observations assimilated, and the model domain. Compared to the modern state, the reconstructed continuous sea-surface temperature field for the LGM shows a global-mean cooling of 2.2 K, and the reconstructed LGM ocean has a more vigorous Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, shallower North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) equivalent, stronger stratification, and more saline deep water.

  17. Installation of dynamic travel time signs and efforts to obtain and test a graphical route information panel (GRIP) sign in Austin.

    2016-08-01

    Graphic Route Information Panel (GRIP) signs use a combination of text, colors, and representative maps of : the roadway system to convey real-time roadway congestion location and severity information. The intent of : this project was to facilitate t...

  18. Global Crustal Dynamics of Magnetars in Relation to Their Bright X-Ray Outbursts

    Thompson, Christopher [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada); Yang, Huan; Ortiz, Néstor [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, Waterloo, ON N2L 2Y5 (Canada)

    2017-05-20

    This paper considers the yielding response of a neutron star crust to smooth, unbalanced Maxwell stresses imposed at the core–crust boundary, and the coupling of the dynamic crust to the external magnetic field. Stress buildup and yielding in a magnetar crust are global phenomena: an elastic distortion radiating from one plastically deforming zone is shown to dramatically increase the creep rate in distant zones. Runaway creep to dynamical rates is shown to be possible, being enhanced by in situ heating and suppressed by thermal conduction and shearing of an embedded magnetic field. A global and time-dependent model of elastic, plastic, magnetic, and thermal evolution is developed. Fault-like structures develop naturally, and a range of outburst timescales is observed. Transient events with time profiles similar to giant magnetar flares (millisecond rise, ∼0.1 s duration, and decaying power-law tails) result from runaway creep that starts in localized sub-kilometer-sized patches and spreads across the crust. A one-dimensional model of stress relaxation in the vertically stratified crust shows that a modest increase in applied stress allows embedded magnetic shear to escape the star over ∼3–10 ms, dissipating greater energy if the exterior field is already sheared. Several such zones coupled to each other naturally yield a burst of duration ∼0.1 s, as is observed over a wide range of burst energies. The collective interaction of many plastic zones forces an overstability of global elastic modes of the crust, consistent with quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) activity extending over ∼100 s. Giant flares probably involve sudden meltdown in localized zones, with high-frequency (≫100 Hz) QPOs corresponding to standing Alfvén waves within these zones.

  19. Dynamic water allocation policies improve the global efficiency of storage systems

    Niayifar, Amin; Perona, Paolo

    2017-06-01

    Water impoundment by dams strongly affects the river natural flow regime, its attributes and the related ecosystem biodiversity. Fostering the sustainability of water uses e.g., hydropower systems thus implies searching for innovative operational policies able to generate Dynamic Environmental Flows (DEF) that mimic natural flow variability. The objective of this study is to propose a Direct Policy Search (DPS) framework based on defining dynamic flow release rules to improve the global efficiency of storage systems. The water allocation policies proposed for dammed systems are an extension of previously developed flow redistribution rules for small hydropower plants by Razurel et al. (2016).The mathematical form of the Fermi-Dirac statistical distribution applied to lake equations for the stored water in the dam is used to formulate non-proportional redistribution rules that partition the flow for energy production and environmental use. While energy production is computed from technical data, riverine ecological benefits associated with DEF are computed by integrating the Weighted Usable Area (WUA) for fishes with Richter's hydrological indicators. Then, multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) are applied to build ecological versus economic efficiency plot and locate its (Pareto) frontier. This study benchmarks two MOEAs (NSGA II and Borg MOEA) and compares their efficiency in terms of the quality of Pareto's frontier and computational cost. A detailed analysis of dam characteristics is performed to examine their impact on the global system efficiency and choice of the best redistribution rule. Finally, it is found that non-proportional flow releases can statistically improve the global efficiency, specifically the ecological one, of the hydropower system when compared to constant minimal flows.

  20. Dynamics of global supply chain and electric power networks: Models, pricing analysis, and computations

    Matsypura, Dmytro

    In this dissertation, I develop a new theoretical framework for the modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of solutions to electric power supply chains with power generators, suppliers, transmission service providers, and the inclusion of consumer demands. In particular, I advocate the application of finite-dimensional variational inequality theory, projected dynamical systems theory, game theory, network theory, and other tools that have been recently proposed for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks (cf. Nagurney (2006)) to electric power markets. This dissertation contributes to the extant literature on the modeling, analysis, and solution of supply chain networks, including global supply chains, in general, and electric power supply chains, in particular, in the following ways. It develops a theoretical framework for modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of electric power flows/transactions in electric power systems using the rationale for supply chain analysis. The models developed include both static and dynamic ones. The dissertation also adds a new dimension to the methodology of the theory of projected dynamical systems by proving that, irrespective of the speeds of adjustment, the equilibrium of the system remains the same. Finally, I include alternative fuel suppliers, along with their behavior into the supply chain modeling and analysis framework. This dissertation has strong practical implications. In an era in which technology and globalization, coupled with increasing risk and uncertainty, complicate electricity demand and supply within and between nations, the successful management of electric power systems and pricing become increasingly pressing topics with relevance not only for economic prosperity but also national security. This dissertation addresses such related topics by providing models, pricing tools, and algorithms for decentralized electric power supply chains. This dissertation is based heavily on the following

  1. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  2. Global sensitivity analysis of bogie dynamics with respect to suspension components

    Mousavi Bideleh, Seyed Milad; Berbyuk, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    The effects of bogie primary and secondary suspension stiffness and damping components on the dynamics behavior of a high speed train are scrutinized based on the multiplicative dimensional reduction method (M-DRM). A one-car railway vehicle model is chosen for the analysis at two levels of the bogie suspension system: symmetric and asymmetric configurations. Several operational scenarios including straight and circular curved tracks are considered, and measurement data are used as the track irregularities in different directions. Ride comfort, safety, and wear objective functions are specified to evaluate the vehicle’s dynamics performance on the prescribed operational scenarios. In order to have an appropriate cut center for the sensitivity analysis, the genetic algorithm optimization routine is employed to optimize the primary and secondary suspension components in terms of wear and comfort, respectively. The global sensitivity indices are introduced and the Gaussian quadrature integrals are employed to evaluate the simplified sensitivity indices correlated to the objective functions. In each scenario, the most influential suspension components on bogie dynamics are recognized and a thorough analysis of the results is given. The outcomes of the current research provide informative data that can be beneficial in design and optimization of passive and active suspension components for high speed train bogies.

  3. Global sensitivity analysis of bogie dynamics with respect to suspension components

    Mousavi Bideleh, Seyed Milad, E-mail: milad.mousavi@chalmers.se; Berbyuk, Viktor, E-mail: viktor.berbyuk@chalmers.se [Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics (Sweden)

    2016-06-15

    The effects of bogie primary and secondary suspension stiffness and damping components on the dynamics behavior of a high speed train are scrutinized based on the multiplicative dimensional reduction method (M-DRM). A one-car railway vehicle model is chosen for the analysis at two levels of the bogie suspension system: symmetric and asymmetric configurations. Several operational scenarios including straight and circular curved tracks are considered, and measurement data are used as the track irregularities in different directions. Ride comfort, safety, and wear objective functions are specified to evaluate the vehicle’s dynamics performance on the prescribed operational scenarios. In order to have an appropriate cut center for the sensitivity analysis, the genetic algorithm optimization routine is employed to optimize the primary and secondary suspension components in terms of wear and comfort, respectively. The global sensitivity indices are introduced and the Gaussian quadrature integrals are employed to evaluate the simplified sensitivity indices correlated to the objective functions. In each scenario, the most influential suspension components on bogie dynamics are recognized and a thorough analysis of the results is given. The outcomes of the current research provide informative data that can be beneficial in design and optimization of passive and active suspension components for high speed train bogies.

  4. Mutual and asynchronous anticipation and action in sports as globally competitive and locally coordinative dynamics

    Fujii, Keisuke; Isaka, Tadao; Kouzaki, Motoki; Yamamoto, Yuji

    2015-11-01

    Humans interact by changing their actions, perceiving other’s actions and executing solutions in conflicting situations. Using oscillator models, nonlinear dynamics have been considered for describing these complex human movements as an emergence of self-organisation. However, these frameworks cannot explain the hierarchical structures of complex behaviours between conflicting inter-agent and adapting intra-agent systems, especially in sport competitions wherein mutually quick decision making and execution are required. Here we adopt a hybrid multiscale approach to model an attack-and-defend game during which both players predict the opponent’s movement and move with a delay. From both simulated and measured data, one synchronous outcome between two-agent (i.e. successful defence) can be described as one attractor. In contrast, the other coordination-breaking outcome (i.e. successful attack) cannot be explained using gradient dynamics because the asymmetric interaction cannot always assume a conserved physical quantity. Instead, we provide the asymmetric and asynchronous hierarchical dynamical models to discuss two-agent competition. Our framework suggests that possessing information about an opponent and oneself in local-coordinative and global-competitive scale enables us to gain a deeper understanding of sports competitions. We anticipate developments in the scientific fields of complex movement adapting to such uncontrolled environments.

  5. Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories

    Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

    2018-03-01

    Fire is a fundamental Earth system process and the primary ecosystem disturbance on the global scale. It affects carbon and water cycles through changing terrestrial ecosystems, and at the same time, is regulated by weather and climate, vegetation characteristics, and, importantly, human ignitions and suppression (i.e., the direct human effect on fire). Here, we utilize the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) to quantify the impacts of changes in human ignition and suppression on fire dynamics and associated carbon and water cycles. We find that the impact is to significantly reduce the 20th century global burned area by a century average of 38 Mha/yr and by 103 Mha/yr at the end of the century. Land carbon gain is weakened by 17% over the 20th century, mainly due to increased human deforestation fires and associated escape fires (i.e., degradation fires) in the tropical humid forests, even though the decrease in burned area in many other regions due to human fire suppression acts to increase land carbon gain. The direct human effect on fire weakens the upward trend in global runoff throughout the century by 6% and enhances the upward trend in global evapotranspiration since 1945 by 7%. In addition, the above impacts in densely populated, highly developed (if population density > 0.1 person/km2), or moderately populated and developed regions are of opposite sign to those in other regions. Our study suggests that particular attention should be paid to human deforestation and degradation fires in the tropical humid forests when reconstructing and projecting fire carbon emissions and net atmosphere-land carbon exchange and estimating resultant impacts of direct human effect on fire.

  6. Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories

    Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

    2018-03-01

    Fire is a fundamental Earth system process and the primary ecosystem disturbance on the global scale. It affects carbon and water cycles through changing terrestrial ecosystems, and at the same time, is regulated by weather and climate, vegetation characteristics, and, importantly, human ignitions and suppression (i.e., the direct human effect on fire). Here, we utilize the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) to quantify the impacts of changes in human ignition and suppression on fire dynamics and associated carbon and water cycles. We find that the impact is to significantly reduce the 20th century global burned area by a century average of 38 Mha/yr and by 103 Mha/yr at the end of the century. Land carbon gain is weakened by 17% over the 20th century, mainly due to increased human deforestation fires and associated escape fires (i.e., degradation fires) in the tropical humid forests, even though the decrease in burned area in many other regions due to human fire suppression acts to increase land carbon gain. The direct human effect on fire weakens the upward trend in global runoff throughout the century by 6% and enhances the upward trend in global evapotranspiration since ~ 1945 by 7%. In addition, the above impacts in densely populated, highly developed (if population density > 0.1 person/km2), or moderately populated and developed regions are of opposite sign to those in other regions. Our study suggests that particular attention should be paid to human deforestation and degradation fires in the tropical humid forests when reconstructing and projecting fire carbon emissions and net atmosphere-land carbon exchange and estimating resultant impacts of direct human effect on fire.

  7. VINE ROUTES IN BULGARIA

    Lyuben Hristov

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a scheme for the modern vine route in Bulgaria. Five basic vine routes and one international, between Bulgaria, Macedonia and Greece are defined. All routes consider characteristic varieties of grapes and kinds of vine products. Vine tourist products combined with visits of important natural and anthropological object are in the bases of the defined routes. The described routes are an important contribution to development of alternative tourist products in the country.

  8. Fine particles and NO{sub 2}. Development and validation of a method for the immission-relevant, dynamic re-routing of traffic; Feinstaub und NO{sub 2}. Entwicklung und Validierung einer Methode zur immissionsabhaengigen dynamischen Verkehrssteuerung

    Ludes, G.; Siebers, B. [simuPlan, Dorsten (Germany); Kuhlbusch, T.; Quass, U.; Beyer, M. [Institut fuer Energie- und Umwelttechnik, Duisburg (Germany); Weber, F. [Stadt Hagen (Germany)

    2010-05-15

    Due to the coming into effect of the twenty-second BImSchV comprehensive investigations on the ambient air quality have been carried out in the city of Hagen in recent years by means of measurement and modelling. High concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and respirable dust have been found along the main streets and the roads belonging to the city ring road system. Main cause of the present situation is road traffic, esp. heavy duty vehicles (HDV). Therefore the concept of measures for the implementation of the air monitoring plan and the action plan set up by the project group includes a HDV-routing system and dynamic, immission-relevant re-routing of traffic. Through this research project the practicability and the effects on air quality of the dynamic, immission-relevant re-routing of HDV-traffic will especially be examined within the highly polluted area of the ''Maerkischer Ring''. By making use of the control programme simDRIVE this innovative concept allows temporary closures of the ''Maerkischer Ring'' for HDV-traffic if transgression of critical limit values is prognosticated due to traffic volume and meteorological circumstances. During these closure periods HDV-traffic will be diverted to alternative and previously determined routes by dynamic and static traffic signs in order to guarantee that intended destinations can be reached. With the help of this research project it should be demonstrated in addition (a) if and how this particular method for NO{sub 2} can also be applied on the reduction of respirable dust, (b) how this measure affects the situation of air pollution regarding respirable dust in other parts of Hagen and (c) if the transfer of methods for the use in other cities is possible. (orig.)

  9. Load Balancing Routing with Bounded Stretch

    Chen Siyuan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Routing in wireless networks has been heavily studied in the last decade. Many routing protocols are based on classic shortest path algorithms. However, shortest path-based routing protocols suffer from uneven load distribution in the network, such as crowed center effect where the center nodes have more load than the nodes in the periphery. Aiming to balance the load, we propose a novel routing method, called Circular Sailing Routing (CSR, which can distribute the traffic more evenly in the network. The proposed method first maps the network onto a sphere via a simple stereographic projection, and then the route decision is made by a newly defined "circular distance" on the sphere instead of the Euclidean distance in the plane. We theoretically prove that for a network, the distance traveled by the packets using CSR is no more than a small constant factor of the minimum (the distance of the shortest path. We also extend CSR to a localized version, Localized CSR, by modifying greedy routing without any additional communication overhead. In addition, we investigate how to design CSR routing for 3D networks. For all proposed methods, we conduct extensive simulations to study their performances and compare them with global shortest path routing or greedy routing in 2D and 3D wireless networks.

  10. Vertex routing models

    Markovic, D; Gros, C

    2009-01-01

    A class of models describing the flow of information within networks via routing processes is proposed and investigated, concentrating on the effects of memory traces on the global properties. The long-term flow of information is governed by cyclic attractors, allowing to define a measure for the information centrality of a vertex given by the number of attractors passing through this vertex. We find the number of vertices having a nonzero information centrality to be extensive/subextensive for models with/without a memory trace in the thermodynamic limit. We evaluate the distribution of the number of cycles, of the cycle length and of the maximal basins of attraction, finding a complete scaling collapse in the thermodynamic limit for the latter. Possible implications of our results for the information flow in social networks are discussed.

  11. Performance modeling of neighbor discovery in proactive routing protocols

    Andres Medina

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that neighbor discovery is a critical component of proactive routing protocols in wireless ad hoc networks. However there is no formal study on the performance of proposed neighbor discovery mechanisms. This paper provides a detailed model of key performance metrics of neighbor discovery algorithms, such as node degree and the distribution of the distance to symmetric neighbors. The model accounts for the dynamics of neighbor discovery as well as node density, mobility, radio and interference. The paper demonstrates a method for applying these models to the evaluation of global network metrics. In particular, it describes a model of network connectivity. Validation of the models shows that the degree estimate agrees, within 5% error, with simulations for the considered scenarios. The work presented in this paper serves as a basis for the performance evaluation of remaining performance metrics of routing protocols, vital for large scale deployment of ad hoc networks.

  12. Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

    Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

    2014-12-01

    The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for

  13. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-05-01

    The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

  14. A global qualitative view of bifurcations and dynamics in the Roessler system

    Genesio, R.; Innocenti, G.; Gualdani, F.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the Letter is a global study of the well-known Roessler system to point out the main complex dynamics that it can exhibit. The structural analysis is based on the periodic solutions of the system investigated by a harmonic balance technique. Simplified expressions of such limit cycles are first derived and characterized, then their local bifurcations are denoted, also giving indications to predict possible homoclinic orbits with the same unifying approach. These analytical results give a general picture of the system behaviours in the parameter space and numerical analysis and simulations confirm the qualitative accuracy of the whole. Such predictions have also an important role in applying efficiently the above numerical procedures

  15. Component-Level Selection and Qualification for the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Laser Altimeter Transmitter

    Frese, Erich A.; Chiragh, Furqan L.; Switzer, Robert; Vasilyev, Aleksey A.; Thomes, Joe; Coyle, D. Barry; Stysley, Paul R.

    2018-01-01

    Flight quality solid-state lasers require a unique and extensive set of testing and qualification processes, both at the system and component levels to insure the laser's promised performance. As important as the overall laser transmitter design is, the quality and performance of individual subassemblies, optics, and electro-optics dictate the final laser unit's quality. The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) laser transmitters employ all the usual components typical for a diode-pumped, solid-state laser, yet must each go through their own individual process of specification, modeling, performance demonstration, inspection, and destructive testing. These qualification processes and results for the laser crystals, laser diode arrays, electro-optics, and optics, will be reviewed as well as the relevant critical issues encountered, prior to their installation in the GEDI flight laser units.

  16. Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics

    Dobslaw, Henryk; Dill, Robert

    2018-02-01

    Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3 h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6 days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15 months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6 days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for Δ UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service.

  17. Global dynamics of selective attention and its lapses in primary auditory cortex.

    Lakatos, Peter; Barczak, Annamaria; Neymotin, Samuel A; McGinnis, Tammy; Ross, Deborah; Javitt, Daniel C; O'Connell, Monica Noelle

    2016-12-01

    Previous research demonstrated that while selectively attending to relevant aspects of the external world, the brain extracts pertinent information by aligning its neuronal oscillations to key time points of stimuli or their sampling by sensory organs. This alignment mechanism is termed oscillatory entrainment. We investigated the global, long-timescale dynamics of this mechanism in the primary auditory cortex of nonhuman primates, and hypothesized that lapses of entrainment would correspond to lapses of attention. By examining electrophysiological and behavioral measures, we observed that besides the lack of entrainment by external stimuli, attentional lapses were also characterized by high-amplitude alpha oscillations, with alpha frequency structuring of neuronal ensemble and single-unit operations. Entrainment and alpha-oscillation-dominated periods were strongly anticorrelated and fluctuated rhythmically at an ultra-slow rate. Our results indicate that these two distinct brain states represent externally versus internally oriented computational resources engaged by large-scale task-positive and task-negative functional networks.

  18. Sensitivity of global ocean biogeochemical dynamics to ecosystem structure in a future climate

    Manizza, Manfredi; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Le Quéré, Corinne

    2010-07-01

    Terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem components of the Earth System models (ESMs) are key to predict the future behavior of the global carbon cycle. Ocean ecosystem models represent low complexity compared to terrestrial ecosystem models. In this study we use two ocean biogeochemical models based on the explicit representation of multiple planktonic functional types. We impose to the models the same future physical perturbation and compare the response of ecosystem dynamics, export production (EP) and ocean carbon uptake (OCU) to the same physical changes. Models comparison shows that: (1) EP changes directly translate into changes of OCU on decadal time scale, (2) the representation of ecosystem structure plays a pivotal role at linking OCU and EP, (3) OCU is highly sensitive to representation of ecosystem in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans.

  19. Routing in opportunistic networks

    Dhurandher, Sanjay; Anpalagan, Alagan; Vasilakos, Athanasios

    2013-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive guide to selected topics, both ongoing and emerging, in routing in OppNets. The book is edited by worldwide technical leaders, prolific researchers and outstanding academics, Dr. Isaac Woungang and co-editors, Dr. Sanjay Kumar Dhurandher, Prof. Alagan Anpalagan and Prof. Athanasios Vasilakos. Consisting of contributions from well known and high profile researchers and scientists in their respective specialties, the main topics that are covered in this book include mobility and routing, social-aware routing, context-based routing, energy-aware routing, incentive-aware routing, stochastic routing, modeling of intermittent connectivity, in both infrastructure and infrastructure-less OppNets. Key Features: Discusses existing and emerging techniques for routing in infrastructure and infrastructure-less OppNets. Provides a unified covering of otherwise disperse selected topics on routing in infrastructure and infrastructure-less OppNets.  Includes a set of PowerPoint slides and g...

  20. Temporal dynamics influenced by global change: bee community phenology in urban, agricultural, and natural landscapes.

    Leong, Misha; Ponisio, Lauren C; Kremen, Claire; Thorp, Robbin W; Roderick, George K

    2016-03-01

    Urbanization and agricultural intensification of landscapes are important drivers of global change, which in turn have direct impacts on local ecological communities leading to shifts in species distributions and interactions. Here, we illustrate how human-altered landscapes, with novel ornamental and crop plant communities, result not only in changes to local community diversity of floral-dependent species, but also in shifts in seasonal abundance of bee pollinators. Three years of data on the spatio-temporal distributions of 91 bee species show that seasonal patterns of abundance and species richness in human-altered landscapes varied significantly less compared to natural habitats in which floral resources are relatively scarce in the dry summer months. These findings demonstrate that anthropogenic environmental changes in urban and agricultural systems, here mediated through changes in plant resources and water inputs, can alter the temporal dynamics of pollinators that depend on them. Changes in phenology of interactions can be an important, though frequently overlooked, mechanism of global change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Dynamical analysis of a cubic Liénard system with global parameters (II)

    Chen, Hebai; Chen, Xingwu

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we continue to study the global dynamics of a cubic Liénard system for global parameters in the case of three equilibria to follow (2015 Nonlinearity 28 3535-62), which deals with the case of two equilibria. We first analyse qualitative properties of all equilibria and judge the existences of limit cycles and homoclinic loops and their numbers. Then we obtain the bifurcation diagram and all phase portraits as our main results. Based on these results, in the case of three equilibria a positive answer to conjecture 3.2 of (1998 Nonlinearity 11 1505-19), which is about the existence of some function whose graph is exactly the surface of double limit cycles, is obtained. Moreover, a parameter region for the nonexistence of figure-eight loops is given theoretically to compensate for previous numerical results and is illustrated numerically. Supported by NSFC 11471228, 11572263, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and Cultivation Foundation of Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of Southwest Jiaotong University (2015).

  2. Molecular Dynamics Pinpoint the Global Fluorine Effect in Balanoid Binding to PKCε and PKA.

    Hardianto, Ari; Liu, Fei; Ranganathan, Shoba

    2018-02-26

    (-)-Balanol is an adenosine triphosphate mimic that inhibits protein kinase C (PKC) isozymes and cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) with limited selectivity. While PKA is known as a tumor promoter, PKC isozymes can be tumor promoters or suppressors. In particular, PKCε is frequently involved in tumorigenesis and a potential target for anticancer drugs. We recently reported that stereospecific fluorination of balanol yielded a balanoid with enhanced selectivity for PKCε over other PKC isozymes and PKA, although the global fluorine effect behind the selectivity enhancement is not fully understood. Interestingly, in contrast to PKA, PKCε is more sensitive to this fluorine effect. Here we investigate the global fluorine effect on the different binding responses of PKCε and PKA to balanoids using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. For the first time to the best of our knowledge, we found that a structurally equivalent residue in each kinase, Thr184 in PKA and Ala549 in PKCε, is essential for the different binding responses. Furthermore, the study revealed that the invariant Lys, Lys73 in PKA and Lys437 in PKCε, already known to have a crucial role in the catalytic activity of kinases, serves as the main anchor for balanol binding. Overall, while Thr184 in PKA attenuates the effect of fluorination, Ala549 permits remote response of PKCε to fluorine substitution, with implications for rational design of future balanol-based PKCε inhibitors.

  3. Using animation quality metric to improve efficiency of global illumination computation for dynamic environments

    Myszkowski, Karol; Tawara, Takehiro; Seidel, Hans-Peter

    2002-06-01

    In this paper, we consider applications of perception-based video quality metrics to improve the performance of global lighting computations for dynamic environments. For this purpose we extend the Visible Difference Predictor (VDP) developed by Daly to handle computer animations. We incorporate into the VDP the spatio-velocity CSF model developed by Kelly. The CSF model requires data on the velocity of moving patterns across the image plane. We use the 3D image warping technique to compensate for the camera motion, and we conservatively assume that the motion of animated objects (usually strong attractors of the visual attention) is fully compensated by the smooth pursuit eye motion. Our global illumination solution is based on stochastic photon tracing and takes advantage of temporal coherence of lighting distribution, by processing photons both in the spatial and temporal domains. The VDP is used to keep noise inherent in stochastic methods below the sensitivity level of the human observer. As a result a perceptually-consistent quality across all animation frames is obtained.

  4. Vorticity-divergence semi-Lagrangian global atmospheric model SL-AV20: dynamical core

    Tolstykh, Mikhail; Shashkin, Vladimir; Fadeev, Rostislav; Goyman, Gordey

    2017-05-01

    SL-AV (semi-Lagrangian, based on the absolute vorticity equation) is a global hydrostatic atmospheric model. Its latest version, SL-AV20, provides global operational medium-range weather forecast with 20 km resolution over Russia. The lower-resolution configurations of SL-AV20 are being tested for seasonal prediction and climate modeling. The article presents the model dynamical core. Its main features are a vorticity-divergence formulation at the unstaggered grid, high-order finite-difference approximations, semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit discretization and the reduced latitude-longitude grid with variable resolution in latitude. The accuracy of SL-AV20 numerical solutions using a reduced lat-lon grid and the variable resolution in latitude is tested with two idealized test cases. Accuracy and stability of SL-AV20 in the presence of the orography forcing are tested using the mountain-induced Rossby wave test case. The results of all three tests are in good agreement with other published model solutions. It is shown that the use of the reduced grid does not significantly affect the accuracy up to the 25 % reduction in the number of grid points with respect to the regular grid. Variable resolution in latitude allows us to improve the accuracy of a solution in the region of interest.

  5. The Effects of Time Lag and Cure Rate on the Global Dynamics of HIV-1 Model

    Nigar Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research article, a new mathematical model of delayed differential equations is developed which discusses the interaction among CD4 T cells, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, and recombinant virus with cure rate. The model has two distributed intracellular delays. These delays denote the time needed for the infection of a cell. The dynamics of the model are completely described by the basic reproduction numbers represented by R0, R1, and R2. It is shown that if R0<1, then the infection-free equilibrium is locally as well as globally stable. Similarly, it is proved that the recombinant absent equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable if 1

  6. Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

    Dirk Lauwaet

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

  7. Patterns of inequality: Dynamics of income distribution in USA and global energy consumption distribution

    Banerjee, Anand; Yakovenko, Victor

    2010-03-01

    Applying the principle of entropy maximization, we argued that the distribution of money in a closed economic system should be exponential [1], see also recent review [2]. In this talk, we show that income distribution in USA is exponential for the majority of population (about 97%). However, the high-income tail follows a power law and is highly dynamical, i.e., out of equilibrium. The fraction of income going to the tail swelled to 20% of all income in 2000 and 2006 at the peaks of speculative bubbles followed by spectacular crashes. Next, we analyze the global distribution of energy consumption per capita among different countries. In the first approximation, it is reasonably well captured by the exponential function. Comparing the data for 1990 and 2005, we observe that the distribution is getting closer to the exponential, presumably as a result of globalization of the world economy.[4pt] [1] A. A. Dragulescu and V. M. Yakovenko, Eur. Phys. J. B 17, 723 (2000). [2] V. M. Yakovenko and J. B. Rosser, to appear in Rev. Mod. Phys. (2009), arXiv:0905.1518.

  8. Global synchronization of complex dynamical networks through digital communication with limited data rate.

    Wang, Yan-Wu; Bian, Tao; Xiao, Jiang-Wen; Wen, Changyun

    2015-10-01

    This paper studies the global synchronization of complex dynamical network (CDN) under digital communication with limited bandwidth. To realize the digital communication, the so-called uniform-quantizer-sets are introduced to quantize the states of nodes, which are then encoded and decoded by newly designed encoders and decoders. To meet the requirement of the bandwidth constraint, a scaling function is utilized to guarantee the quantizers having bounded inputs and thus achieving bounded real-time quantization levels. Moreover, a new type of vector norm is introduced to simplify the expression of the bandwidth limit. Through mathematical induction, a sufficient condition is derived to ensure global synchronization of the CDNs. The lower bound on the sum of the real-time quantization levels is analyzed for different cases. Optimization method is employed to relax the requirements on the network topology and to determine the minimum of such lower bound for each case, respectively. Simulation examples are also presented to illustrate the established results.

  9. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; von Bloh, Werner; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Biemans, Hester; Forkel, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Knauer, Jürgen; Langerwisch, Fanny; Lucht, Wolfgang; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

  10. An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

    Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

    2018-04-01

    Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

  11. RECONFIGURABLE PRODUCT ROUTING AND CONTROL FOR MASS CUSTOMISATION MANUFACTURING

    A. J. Walker

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT:Reconfigurable control of flexible manufacturing systems can allow for the efficient and responsive production of customised product instances. This can aid in providing make-to-order business models for various small- to medium-sized enterprises in South Africa, and provide competitive advantage in a dynamic global marketplace. Reconfigurable control application requires an understanding of the modes of production variability in mass customisation manufacturing. Temporally uncorrelated workflow routings are considered as one of these production variability modes. In this light, this paper addresses the flexible material payload routing problem, and presents a mobile robot platform that has been developed to research and design reconfigurable routing systems.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING:Verstelbare beheer van aanpasbare vervaardigingstelsels kan die doeltreffende en reaktiewe produksie van doelgemaakte produkeksemplare toelaat. Hierdie beheer kan assisteer in die voorsiening van vervaardig-na-bestellingbesigheidsmodelle aan ’n aantal klein- tot medium-grootte ondernemings in Suid-Afrika, en aan hulle ’n kompeterende voorsprong bied in ’n dinamiese globale mark. Die instelling van verstelbare beheer vereis dat die modi van produkveranderlikheid in massa verbruikersaanpassingsvervaardiging verstaan word. Hierdie artikel spreek die probleem van aanpasbare roetebepaling van materiaalvragte in massa verbruikersaanpassingsvervaardiging aan. ’n Mobiele robot-platform, ontwikkel vir navorsing in verstelbare roetebepalingstelsels, word ook voorgelê.

  12. Local and global dynamics of Ramsey model: From continuous to discrete time.

    Guzowska, Malgorzata; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2018-05-01

    The choice of time as a discrete or continuous variable may radically affect equilibrium stability in an endogenous growth model with durable consumption. In the continuous-time Ramsey model [F. P. Ramsey, Econ. J. 38(152), 543-559 (1928)], the steady state is locally saddle-path stable with monotonic convergence. However, in the discrete-time version, the steady state may be unstable or saddle-path stable with monotonic or oscillatory convergence or periodic solutions [see R.-A. Dana et al., Handbook on Optimal Growth 1 (Springer, 2006) and G. Sorger, Working Paper No. 1505 (2015)]. When this occurs, the discrete-time counterpart of the continuous-time model is not consistent with the initial framework. In order to obtain a discrete-time Ramsey model preserving the main properties of the continuous-time counterpart, we use a general backward and forward discretisation as initially proposed by Bosi and Ragot [Theor. Econ. Lett. 2(1), 10-15 (2012)]. The main result of the study here presented is that, with this hybrid discretisation method, fixed points and local dynamics do not change. For what it concerns global dynamics, i.e., long-run behavior for initial conditions taken on the state space, we mainly perform numerical analysis with the main scope of comparing both qualitative and quantitative evolution of the two systems, also varying some parameters of interest.

  13. MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION DYNAMICS FROM 3D MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC GLOBAL SIMULATIONS OF SOLAR CONVECTION

    Passos, Dário; Charbonneau, Paul; Miesch, Mark

    2015-01-01

    The form of solar meridional circulation is a very important ingredient for mean field flux transport dynamo models. However, a shroud of mystery still surrounds this large-scale flow, given that its measurement using current helioseismic techniques is challenging. In this work, we use results from three-dimensional global simulations of solar convection to infer the dynamical behavior of the established meridional circulation. We make a direct comparison between the meridional circulation that arises in these simulations and the latest observations. Based on our results, we argue that there should be an equatorward flow at the base of the convection zone at mid-latitudes, below the current maximum depth helioseismic measures can probe (0.75 R ⊙ ). We also provide physical arguments to justify this behavior. The simulations indicate that the meridional circulation undergoes substantial changes in morphology as the magnetic cycle unfolds. We close by discussing the importance of these dynamical changes for current methods of observation which involve long averaging periods of helioseismic data. Also noteworthy is the fact that these topological changes indicate a rich interaction between magnetic fields and plasma flows, which challenges the ubiquitous kinematic approach used in the vast majority of mean field dynamo simulations

  14. Global Analysis of miRNA Gene Clusters and Gene Families Reveals Dynamic and Coordinated Expression

    Li Guo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To further understand the potential expression relationships of miRNAs in miRNA gene clusters and gene families, a global analysis was performed in 4 paired tumor (breast cancer and adjacent normal tissue samples using deep sequencing datasets. The compositions of miRNA gene clusters and families are not random, and clustered and homologous miRNAs may have close relationships with overlapped miRNA species. Members in the miRNA group always had various expression levels, and even some showed larger expression divergence. Despite the dynamic expression as well as individual difference, these miRNAs always indicated consistent or similar deregulation patterns. The consistent deregulation expression may contribute to dynamic and coordinated interaction between different miRNAs in regulatory network. Further, we found that those clustered or homologous miRNAs that were also identified as sense and antisense miRNAs showed larger expression divergence. miRNA gene clusters and families indicated important biological roles, and the specific distribution and expression further enrich and ensure the flexible and robust regulatory network.

  15. Late Miocene Pacific plate kinematic change explained with coupled global models of mantle and lithosphere dynamics

    Stotz, I. L.; Iaffaldano, G.; Davies, D. R.

    2017-07-01

    The timing and magnitude of a Pacific plate motion change within the past 10 Ma remains enigmatic, due to the noise associated with finite-rotation data. Nonetheless, it has been hypothesized that this change was driven by the arrival of the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP) at the Melanesian arc and the consequent subduction polarity reversal. The uncertainties associated with the timing of this event, however, make it difficult to quantitatively demonstrate a dynamical association. Here, we first reconstruct the Pacific plate's absolute motion since the mid-Miocene (15 Ma), at high-temporal resolution, building on previous efforts to mitigate the impact of finite-rotation data noise. We find that the largest change in Pacific plate-motion direction occurred between 10 and 5 Ma, with the plate rotating clockwise. We subsequently develop and use coupled global numerical models of the mantle/lithosphere system to test hypotheses on the dynamics driving this change. These indicate that the arrival of the OJP at the Melanesian arc, between 10 and 5 Ma, followed by a subduction polarity reversal that marked the initiation of subduction of the Australian plate underneath the Pacific realm, were the key drivers of this kinematic change.

  16. WHO WOULD EAT IN A WORLD WITHOUT PHOSPHORUS? A GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODEL

    Dumas, M.

    2009-12-01

    Phosphorus is an indispensable and non-substitutable resource, as agriculture is impossible if soils do not hold adequate amounts of this nutrient. Phosphorus is also considered to be a non-renewable and increasingly scarce resource, as phosphate rock reserves - as one measure of availability amongst others - are estimated to last for 50 to 100 years at current rates of consumption. How would food production decline in different parts of the world in the scenario of a sudden shortage in phosphorus? To answer this question and explore management scenarios, I present a probabilistic model of the structure and dynamics of the global P cycle in the world’s agro-ecosystems. The model proposes an original solution to the challenge of capturing the large-scale aggregate dynamics of multiple micro-scale soil cycling processes. Furthermore, it integrates the essential natural processes with a model of human-managed flows, thereby bringing together several decades of research and measurements from soil science, plant nutrition and long-term agricultural experiments from around the globe. In this paper, I present the model, the first simulation results and the implications for long-term sustainable management of phosphorus and soil fertility.

  17. Global dynamics of the Escherichia coli proteome and phosphoproteome during growth in minimal medium.

    Soares, Nelson C; Spät, Philipp; Krug, Karsten; Macek, Boris

    2013-06-07

    Recent phosphoproteomics studies have generated relatively large data sets of bacterial proteins phosphorylated on serine, threonine, and tyrosine, implicating this type of phosphorylation in the regulation of vital processes of a bacterial cell; however, most phosphoproteomics studies in bacteria were so far qualitative. Here we applied stable isotope labeling by amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) to perform a quantitative analysis of proteome and phosphoproteome dynamics of Escherichia coli during five distinct phases of growth in the minimal medium. Combining two triple-SILAC experiments, we detected a total of 2118 proteins and quantified relative dynamics of 1984 proteins in all measured phases of growth, including 570 proteins associated with cell wall and membrane. In the phosphoproteomic experiment, we detected 150 Ser/Thr/Tyr phosphorylation events, of which 108 were localized to a specific amino acid residue and 76 were quantified in all phases of growth. Clustering analysis of SILAC ratios revealed distinct sets of coregulated proteins for each analyzed phase of growth and overrepresentation of membrane proteins in transition between exponential and stationary phases. The proteomics data indicated that proteins related to stress response typically associated with the stationary phase, including RpoS-dependent proteins, had increasing levels already during earlier phases of growth. Application of SILAC enabled us to measure median occupancies of phosphorylation sites, which were generally low (<12%). Interestingly, the phosphoproteome analysis showed a global increase of protein phosphorylation levels in the late stationary phase, pointing to a likely role of this modification in later phases of growth.

  18. Land Surface Phenology from MODIS: Characterization of the Collection 5 Global Land Cover Dynamics Product

    Ganguly, Sangram; Friedl, Mark A.; Tan, Bin; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Verma, Manish

    2010-01-01

    Information related to land surface phenology is important for a variety of applications. For example, phenology is widely used as a diagnostic of ecosystem response to global change. In addition, phenology influences seasonal scale fluxes of water, energy, and carbon between the land surface and atmosphere. Increasingly, the importance of phenology for studies of habitat and biodiversity is also being recognized. While many data sets related to plant phenology have been collected at specific sites or in networks focused on individual plants or plant species, remote sensing provides the only way to observe and monitor phenology over large scales and at regular intervals. The MODIS Global Land Cover Dynamics Product was developed to support investigations that require regional to global scale information related to spatiotemporal dynamics in land surface phenology. Here we describe the Collection 5 version of this product, which represents a substantial refinement relative to the Collection 4 product. This new version provides information related to land surface phenology at higher spatial resolution than Collection 4 (500-m vs. 1-km), and is based on 8-day instead of 16-day input data. The paper presents a brief overview of the algorithm, followed by an assessment of the product. To this end, we present (1) a comparison of results from Collection 5 versus Collection 4 for selected MODIS tiles that span a range of climate and ecological conditions, (2) a characterization of interannual variation in Collections 4 and 5 data for North America from 2001 to 2006, and (3) a comparison of Collection 5 results against ground observations for two forest sites in the northeastern United States. Results show that the Collection 5 product is qualitatively similar to Collection 4. However, Collection 5 has fewer missing values outside of regions with persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Interannual variability in Collection 5 is consistent with expected ranges of

  19. Global assessment of benthic nepheloid layers and linkage with upper ocean dynamics

    Gardner, Wilford D.; Richardson, Mary Jo; Mishonov, Alexey V.

    2018-01-01

    Global maps of the maximum bottom concentration, thickness, and integrated particle mass in benthic nepheloid layers are published here to support collaborations to understand deep ocean sediment dynamics, linkage with upper ocean dynamics, and assessing the potential for scavenging of adsorption-prone elements near the deep ocean seafloor. Mapping the intensity of benthic particle concentrations from natural oceanic processes also provides a baseline that will aid in quantifying the industrial impact of current and future deep-sea mining. Benthic nepheloid layers have been mapped using 6,392 full-depth profiles made during 64 cruises using our transmissometers mounted on CTDs in multiple national/international programs including WOCE, SAVE, JGOFS, CLIVAR-Repeat Hydrography, and GO-SHIP during the last four decades. Intense benthic nepheloid layers are found in areas where eddy kinetic energy in overlying waters, mean kinetic energy 50 m above bottom (mab), and energy dissipation in the bottom boundary layer are near the highest values in the ocean. Areas of intense benthic nepheloid layers include the Western North Atlantic, Argentine Basin in the South Atlantic, parts of the Southern Ocean and areas around South Africa. Benthic nepheloid layers are weak or absent in most of the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic basins away from continental margins. High surface eddy kinetic energy is associated with the Kuroshio Current east of Japan. Data south of the Kuroshio show weak nepheloid layers, but no transmissometer data exist beneath the Kuroshio, a deficiency that should be remedied to increase understanding of eddy dynamics in un-sampled and under-sampled oceanic areas.

  20. Dynamic ocean provinces: a multi-sensor approach to global marine ecophysiology

    Dowell, M.; Campbell, J.; Moore, T.

    The concept of oceanic provinces or domains has existed for well over a century. Such systems, whether real or only conceptual, provide a useful framework for understanding the mechanisms controlling biological, physical and chemical processes and their interactions. Criteria have been established for defining provinces based on physical forcings, availability of light and nutrients, complexity of the marine food web, and other factors. In general, such classification systems reflect the heterogeneous nature of the ocean environment, and the effort of scientists to comprehend the whole system by understanding its various homogeneous components. If provinces are defined strictly on the basis of geospatial or temporal criteria (e.g., latitude zones, bathymetry, or season), the resulting maps exhibit discontinuities that are uncharacteristic of the ocean. While this may be useful for many purposes, it is unsatisfactory in that it does not capture the dynamic nature of fluid boundaries in the ocean. Boundaries fixed in time and space do not allow us to observe interannual or longer-term variability (e.g., regime shifts) that may result from climate change. The current study illustrates the potential of using fuzzy logic as a means of classifying the ocean into objectively defined provinces using properties measurable from satellite sensors (MODIS and SeaWiFS). This approach accommodates the dynamic variability of provinces which can be updated as each image is processed. We adopt this classification as the basis for parameterizing specific algorithms for each of the classes. Once the class specific algorithms have been applied, retrievals are then recomposed into a single blended product based on the "weighted" fuzzy memberships. This will be demonstrated through animations of multi-year time- series of monthly composites of the individual classes or provinces. The provinces themselves are identified on the basis of global fields of chlorophyll, sea surface temperature

  1. A method for joint routing, wavelength dimensioning and fault tolerance for any set of simultaneous failures on dynamic WDM optical networks

    Jara, Nicolás; Vallejos, Reinaldo; Rubino, Gerardo

    2017-11-01

    The design of optical networks decomposes into different tasks, where the engineers must basically organize the way the main system's resources are used, minimizing the design and operation costs and respecting critical performance constraints. More specifically, network operators face the challenge of solving routing and wavelength dimensioning problems while aiming to simultaneously minimize the network cost and to ensure that the network performance meets the level established in the Service Level Agreement (SLA). We call this the Routing and Wavelength Dimensioning (R&WD) problem. Another important problem to be solved is how to deal with failures of links when the network is operating. When at least one link fails, a high rate of data loss may occur. To avoid it, the network must be designed in such a manner that upon one or multiple failures, the affected connections can still communicate using alternative routes, a mechanism known as Fault Tolerance (FT). When the mechanism allows to deal with an arbitrary number of faults, we speak about Multiple Fault Tolerance (MFT). The different tasks before mentioned are usually solved separately, or in some cases by pairs, leading to solutions that are not necessarily close to optimal ones. This paper proposes a novel method to simultaneously solve all of them, that is, the Routing, the Wavelength Dimensioning, and the Multiple Fault Tolerance problems. The method allows to obtain: a) all the primary routes by which each connection normally transmits its information, b) the additional routes, called secondary routes, used to keep each user connected in cases where one or more simultaneous failures occur, and c) the number of wavelengths available at each link of the network, calculated such that the blocking probability of each connection is lower than a pre-determined threshold (which is a network design parameter), despite the occurrence of simultaneous link failures. The solution obtained by the new algorithm is

  2. Hazmat Routes (National)

    Department of Transportation — The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) Hazardous Material Routes (NTAD) were developed using the 2004 First Edition TIGER/Line files. The routes are...

  3. The QKD network: model and routing scheme

    Yang, Chao; Zhang, Hongqi; Su, Jinhai

    2017-11-01

    Quantum key distribution (QKD) technology can establish unconditional secure keys between two communicating parties. Although this technology has some inherent constraints, such as the distance and point-to-point mode limits, building a QKD network with multiple point-to-point QKD devices can overcome these constraints. Considering the development level of current technology, the trust relaying QKD network is the first choice to build a practical QKD network. However, the previous research didn't address a routing method on the trust relaying QKD network in detail. This paper focuses on the routing issues, builds a model of the trust relaying QKD network for easily analysing and understanding this network, and proposes a dynamical routing scheme for this network. From the viewpoint of designing a dynamical routing scheme in classical network, the proposed scheme consists of three components: a Hello protocol helping share the network topology information, a routing algorithm to select a set of suitable paths and establish the routing table and a link state update mechanism helping keep the routing table newly. Experiments and evaluation demonstrates the validity and effectiveness of the proposed routing scheme.

  4. The READY program: Building a global potential energy surface and reactive dynamic simulations for the hydrogen combustion.

    Mogo, César; Brandão, João

    2014-06-30

    READY (REActive DYnamics) is a program for studying reactive dynamic systems using a global potential energy surface (PES) built from previously existing PESs corresponding to each of the most important elementary reactions present in the system. We present an application to the combustion dynamics of a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen using accurate PESs for all the systems involving up to four oxygen and hydrogen atoms. Results at the temperature of 4000 K and pressure of 2 atm are presented and compared with model based on rate constants. Drawbacks and advantages of this approach are discussed and future directions of research are pointed out. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Polyhedral Lyapunov functions structurally ensure global asymptotic stability of dynamical networks iff the Jacobian is non-singular

    Blanchini, Franco; Giordano, G.

    2017-01-01

    For a vast class of dynamical networks, including chemical reaction networks (CRNs) with monotonic reaction rates, the existence of a polyhedral Lyapunov function (PLF) implies structural (i.e., parameter-free) local stability. Global structural stability is ensured under the additional

  6. Evaluation of the New Dynamic Global Vegetation Model in CAS-ESM

    Zhu, Jiawen; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhang, Minghua; Dai, Yongjiu; Ji, Duoying; Li, Fang; Zhang, Qian; Zhang, He; Song, Xiang

    2018-06-01

    In the past several decades, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been the most widely used and appropriate tool at the global scale to investigate vegetation-climate interactions. At the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a new version of DGVM (IAP-DGVM) has been developed and coupled to the Common Land Model (CoLM) within the framework of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Earth System Model (CAS-ESM). This work reports the performance of IAP-DGVM through comparisons with that of the default DGVM of CoLM (CoLM-DGVM) and observations. With respect to CoLMDGVM, IAP-DGVM simulated fewer tropical trees, more "needleleaf evergreen boreal tree" and "broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub", and a better representation of grasses. These contributed to a more realistic vegetation distribution in IAP-DGVM, including spatial patterns, total areas, and compositions. Moreover, IAP-DGVM also produced more accurate carbon fluxes than CoLM-DGVM when compared with observational estimates. Gross primary productivity and net primary production in IAP-DGVM were in better agreement with observations than those of CoLM-DGVM, and the tropical pattern of fire carbon emissions in IAP-DGVM was much more consistent with the observation than that in CoLM-DGVM. The leaf area index simulated by IAP-DGVM was closer to the observation than that of CoLM-DGVM; however, both simulated values about twice as large as in the observation. This evaluation provides valuable information for the application of CAS-ESM, as well as for other model communities in terms of a comparative benchmark.

  7. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 2: Model evaluation

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; Forkel, Matthias; Müller, Christoph; Knauer, Jürgen; von Bloh, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.

  8. Top-down constraints on disturbance dynamics in the terrestrial carbon cycle: effects at global and regional scales

    Bloom, A. A.; Exbrayat, J. F.; van der Velde, I.; Peters, W.; Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Large uncertainties preside over terrestrial carbon flux estimates on a global scale. In particular, the strongly coupled dynamics between net ecosystem productivity and disturbance C losses are poorly constrained. To gain an improved understanding of ecosystem C dynamics from regional to global scale, we apply a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based model-data-fusion approach into the CArbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM). We assimilate MODIS LAI and burned area, plant-trait data, and use the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and maps of above ground biomass as prior knowledge for initial conditions. We optimize model parameters based on (a) globally spanning observations and (b) ecological and dynamic constraints that force single parameter values and parameter inter-dependencies to be representative of real world processes. We determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of major terrestrial C fluxes and model parameter values on a global scale (GPP = 123 +/- 8 Pg C yr-1 & NEE = -1.8 +/- 2.7 Pg C yr-1). We further show that the incorporation of disturbance fluxes, and accounting for their instantaneous or delayed effect, is of critical importance in constraining global C cycle dynamics, particularly in the tropics. In a higher resolution case study centred on the Amazon Basin we show how fires not only trigger large instantaneous emissions of burned matter, but also how they are responsible for a sustained reduction of up to 50% in plant uptake following the depletion of biomass stocks. The combination of these two fire-induced effects leads to a 1 g C m-2 d-1reduction in the strength of the net terrestrial carbon sink. Through our simulations at regional and global scale, we advocate the need to assimilate disturbance metrics in global terrestrial carbon cycle models to bridge the gap between globally spanning terrestrial carbon cycle data and the full dynamics of the ecosystem C cycle. Disturbances are especially important because their quick occurrence may have

  9. An Effective Hybrid Routing Algorithm in WSN: Ant Colony Optimization in combination with Hop Count Minimization

    Ailian Jiang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Low cost, high reliability and easy maintenance are key criteria in the design of routing protocols for wireless sensor networks (WSNs. This paper investigates the existing ant colony optimization (ACO-based WSN routing algorithms and the minimum hop count WSN routing algorithms by reviewing their strengths and weaknesses. We also consider the critical factors of WSNs, such as energy constraint of sensor nodes, network load balancing and dynamic network topology. Then we propose a hybrid routing algorithm that integrates ACO and a minimum hop count scheme. The proposed algorithm is able to find the optimal routing path with minimal total energy consumption and balanced energy consumption on each node. The algorithm has unique superiority in terms of searching for the optimal path, balancing the network load and the network topology maintenance. The WSN model and the proposed algorithm have been implemented using C++. Extensive simulation experimental results have shown that our algorithm outperforms several other WSN routing algorithms on such aspects that include the rate of convergence, the success rate in searching for global optimal solution, and the network lifetime.

  10. Global neural dynamic surface tracking control of strict-feedback systems with application to hypersonic flight vehicle.

    Xu, Bin; Yang, Chenguang; Pan, Yongping

    2015-10-01

    This paper studies both indirect and direct global neural control of strict-feedback systems in the presence of unknown dynamics, using the dynamic surface control (DSC) technique in a novel manner. A new switching mechanism is designed to combine an adaptive neural controller in the neural approximation domain, together with the robust controller that pulls the transient states back into the neural approximation domain from the outside. In comparison with the conventional control techniques, which could only achieve semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded stability, the proposed control scheme guarantees all the signals in the closed-loop system are globally uniformly ultimately bounded, such that the conventional constraints on initial conditions of the neural control system can be relaxed. The simulation studies of hypersonic flight vehicle (HFV) are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed global neural DSC design.

  11. Climate dynamics: a network-based approach for the analysis of global precipitation.

    Scarsoglio, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool to investigate the statistical interdependence of many interacting elements, is used here to analyze the spatial dynamics of annual precipitation over seventy years (1941-2010). The precipitation network is built associating a node to a geographical region, which has a temporal distribution of precipitation, and identifying possible links among nodes through the correlation function. The precipitation network reveals significant spatial variability with barely connected regions, as Eastern China and Japan, and highly connected regions, such as the African Sahel, Eastern Australia and, to a lesser extent, Northern Europe. Sahel and Eastern Australia are remarkably dry regions, where low amounts of rainfall are uniformly distributed on continental scales and small-scale extreme events are rare. As a consequence, the precipitation gradient is low, making these regions well connected on a large spatial scale. On the contrary, the Asiatic South-East is often reached by extreme events such as monsoons, tropical cyclones and heat waves, which can all contribute to reduce the correlation to the short-range scale only. Some patterns emerging between mid-latitude and tropical regions suggest a possible impact of the propagation of planetary waves on precipitation at a global scale. Other links can be qualitatively associated to the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. To analyze the sensitivity of the network to the physical closeness of the nodes, short-term connections are broken. The African Sahel, Eastern Australia and Northern Europe regions again appear as the supernodes of the network, confirming furthermore their long-range connection structure. Almost all North-American and Asian nodes vanish, revealing that extreme events can

  12. Spatiotemporal dynamics of surface water networks across a global biodiversity hotspot—implications for conservation

    Tulbure, Mirela G; Broich, Mark; Kininmonth, Stuart

    2014-01-01

    The concept of habitat networks represents an important tool for landscape conservation and management at regional scales. Previous studies simulated degradation of temporally fixed networks but few quantified the change in network connectivity from disintegration of key features that undergo naturally occurring spatiotemporal dynamics. This is particularly of concern for aquatic systems, which typically show high natural spatiotemporal variability. Here we focused on the Swan Coastal Plain, a bioregion that encompasses a global biodiversity hotspot in Australia with over 1500 water bodies of high biodiversity. Using graph theory, we conducted a temporal analysis of water body connectivity over 13 years of variable climate. We derived large networks of surface water bodies using Landsat data (1999–2011). We generated an ensemble of 278 potential networks at three dispersal distances approximating the maximum dispersal distance of different water dependent organisms. We assessed network connectivity through several network topology metrics and quantified the resilience of the network topology during wet and dry phases. We identified ‘stepping stone’ water bodies across time and compared our networks with theoretical network models with known properties. Results showed a highly dynamic seasonal pattern of variability in network topology metrics. A decline in connectivity over the 13 years was noted with potential negative consequences for species with limited dispersal capacity. The networks described here resemble theoretical scale-free models, also known as ‘rich get richer’ algorithm. The ‘stepping stone’ water bodies are located in the area around the Peel-Harvey Estuary, a Ramsar listed site, and some are located in a national park. Our results describe a powerful approach that can be implemented when assessing the connectivity for a particular organism with known dispersal distance. The approach of identifying the surface water bodies that act as

  13. Spatiotemporal dynamics of surface water networks across a global biodiversity hotspot—implications for conservation

    Tulbure, Mirela G.; Kininmonth, Stuart; Broich, Mark

    2014-11-01

    The concept of habitat networks represents an important tool for landscape conservation and management at regional scales. Previous studies simulated degradation of temporally fixed networks but few quantified the change in network connectivity from disintegration of key features that undergo naturally occurring spatiotemporal dynamics. This is particularly of concern for aquatic systems, which typically show high natural spatiotemporal variability. Here we focused on the Swan Coastal Plain, a bioregion that encompasses a global biodiversity hotspot in Australia with over 1500 water bodies of high biodiversity. Using graph theory, we conducted a temporal analysis of water body connectivity over 13 years of variable climate. We derived large networks of surface water bodies using Landsat data (1999-2011). We generated an ensemble of 278 potential networks at three dispersal distances approximating the maximum dispersal distance of different water dependent organisms. We assessed network connectivity through several network topology metrics and quantified the resilience of the network topology during wet and dry phases. We identified ‘stepping stone’ water bodies across time and compared our networks with theoretical network models with known properties. Results showed a highly dynamic seasonal pattern of variability in network topology metrics. A decline in connectivity over the 13 years was noted with potential negative consequences for species with limited dispersal capacity. The networks described here resemble theoretical scale-free models, also known as ‘rich get richer’ algorithm. The ‘stepping stone’ water bodies are located in the area around the Peel-Harvey Estuary, a Ramsar listed site, and some are located in a national park. Our results describe a powerful approach that can be implemented when assessing the connectivity for a particular organism with known dispersal distance. The approach of identifying the surface water bodies that act as

  14. Excess entropy scaling for the segmental and global dynamics of polyethylene melts.

    Voyiatzis, Evangelos; Müller-Plathe, Florian; Böhm, Michael C

    2014-11-28

    The range of validity of the Rosenfeld and Dzugutov excess entropy scaling laws is analyzed for unentangled linear polyethylene chains. We consider two segmental dynamical quantities, i.e. the bond and the torsional relaxation times, and two global ones, i.e. the chain diffusion coefficient and the viscosity. The excess entropy is approximated by either a series expansion of the entropy in terms of the pair correlation function or by an equation of state for polymers developed in the context of the self associating fluid theory. For the whole range of temperatures and chain lengths considered, the two estimates of the excess entropy are linearly correlated. The scaled bond and torsional relaxation times fall into a master curve irrespective of the chain length and the employed scaling scheme. Both quantities depend non-linearly on the excess entropy. For a fixed chain length, the reduced diffusion coefficient and viscosity scale linearly with the excess entropy. An empirical reduction to a chain length-independent master curve is accessible for both dynamic quantities. The Dzugutov scheme predicts an increased value of the scaled diffusion coefficient with increasing chain length which contrasts physical expectations. The origin of this trend can be traced back to the density dependence of the scaling factors. This finding has not been observed previously for Lennard-Jones chain systems (Macromolecules, 2013, 46, 8710-8723). Thus, it limits the applicability of the Dzugutov approach to polymers. In connection with diffusion coefficients and viscosities, the Rosenfeld scaling law appears to be of higher quality than the Dzugutov approach. An empirical excess entropy scaling is also proposed which leads to a chain length-independent correlation. It is expected to be valid for polymers in the Rouse regime.

  15. Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM): Global Structure and Dynamics Driven by Auroral and Joule Heating

    Bougher, S. W.; J. Il. Waite, Jr.; Majeed, T.

    2005-01-01

    A growing multispectral database plus recent Galileo descent measurements are being used to construct a self-consistent picture of the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system. The proper characterization of Jupiter s upper atmosphere, embedded ionosphere, and auroral features requires the examination of underlying processes, including the feedbacks of energetics, neutral-ion dynamics, composition, and magnetospheric coupling. A fully 3-D Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM) has been developed and exercised to address global temperatures, three-component neutral winds, and neutral-ion species distributions. The domain of this JTGCM extends from 20-microbar (capturing hydrocarbon cooling) to 1.0 x 10(exp -4) nbar (including aurora/Joule heating processes). The resulting JTGCM has been fully spun-up and integrated for greater than or equal to40 Jupiter rotations. Results from three JTGCM cases incorporating moderate auroral heating, ion drag, and moderate to strong Joule heating processes are presented. The neutral horizontal winds at ionospheric heights vary from 0.5 km/s to 1.2 km/s, atomic hydrogen is transported equatorward, and auroral exospheric temperatures range from approx.1200-1300 K to above 3000 K, depending on the magnitude of Joule heating. The equatorial temperature profiles from the JTGCM are compared with the measured temperature structure from the Galileo AS1 data set. The best fit to the Galileo data implies that the major energy source for maintaining the equatorial temperatures is due to dynamical heating induced by the low-latitude convergence of the high-latitude-driven thermospheric circulation. Overall, the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system is highly variable and is shown to be strongly dependent on magnetospheric coupling which regulates Joule heating.

  16. Climate dynamics: a network-based approach for the analysis of global precipitation.

    Stefania Scarsoglio

    Full Text Available Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological variables for defining the climate dynamics, but the spatial patterns of precipitation have not been fully investigated yet. The complex network theory, which provides a robust tool to investigate the statistical interdependence of many interacting elements, is used here to analyze the spatial dynamics of annual precipitation over seventy years (1941-2010. The precipitation network is built associating a node to a geographical region, which has a temporal distribution of precipitation, and identifying possible links among nodes through the correlation function. The precipitation network reveals significant spatial variability with barely connected regions, as Eastern China and Japan, and highly connected regions, such as the African Sahel, Eastern Australia and, to a lesser extent, Northern Europe. Sahel and Eastern Australia are remarkably dry regions, where low amounts of rainfall are uniformly distributed on continental scales and small-scale extreme events are rare. As a consequence, the precipitation gradient is low, making these regions well connected on a large spatial scale. On the contrary, the Asiatic South-East is often reached by extreme events such as monsoons, tropical cyclones and heat waves, which can all contribute to reduce the correlation to the short-range scale only. Some patterns emerging between mid-latitude and tropical regions suggest a possible impact of the propagation of planetary waves on precipitation at a global scale. Other links can be qualitatively associated to the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. To analyze the sensitivity of the network to the physical closeness of the nodes, short-term connections are broken. The African Sahel, Eastern Australia and Northern Europe regions again appear as the supernodes of the network, confirming furthermore their long-range connection structure. Almost all North-American and Asian nodes vanish, revealing that

  17. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

  18. Grand challenges in developing a predictive understanding of global fire dynamics

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Wiggins, E. B.; Andela, N.; Morton, D. C.; Veraverbeke, S.; van der Werf, G.

    2017-12-01

    High quality satellite observations of burned area and fire thermal anomalies over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate, ecosystem, and human controls on the spatial and temporal distribution of landscape fires. The satellite observations provide evidence for a rapid and widespread loss of fire from grassland and savanna ecosystems worldwide. Continued expansion of industrial agriculture suggests that observed declines in global burned area are likely to continue in future decades, with profound consequences for ecosystem function and the habitat of many endangered species. Satellite time series also highlight the importance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes as drivers of interannual variability. In many regions, lead times between climate indices and fire activity are considerable, enabling the development of early warning prediction systems for fire season severity. With the recent availability of high-resolution observations from Suomi NPP, Landsat 8, and Sentinel 2, the field of global fire ecology is poised to make even more significant breakthroughs over the next decade. With these new observations, it may be possible to reduce uncertainties in the spatial pattern of burned area by several fold. It is difficult to overstate the importance of these new data constraints for improving our understanding of fire impacts on human health and radiative forcing of climate change. A key research challenge in this context is to understand how the loss of global burned area will affect magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink and trends in atmospheric composition. Advances in prognostic fire modeling will require new approaches linking agriculture with landscape fire dynamics. A critical need in this context is the development of predictive models of road networks and other drivers of land fragmentation, and a closer integration of fragmentation information with algorithms predicting fire spread. Concurrently, a better

  19. State alternative route designations

    1989-07-01

    Pursuant to the Hazardous Materials Transportation Act (HMTA), the Department of Transportation (DOT) has promulgated a comprehensive set of regulations regarding the highway transportation of high-level radioactive materials. These regulations, under HM-164 and HM-164A, establish interstate highways as the preferred routes for the transportation of radioactive materials within and through the states. The regulations also provide a methodology by which a state may select alternative routes. First,the state must establish a ''state routing agency,'' defined as an entity authorized to use the state legal process to impose routing requirements on carriers of radioactive material (49 CFR 171.8). Once identified, the state routing agency must select routes in accordance with Large Quantity Shipments of Radioactive Materials or an equivalent routing analysis. Adjoining states and localities should be consulted on the impact of proposed alternative routes as a prerequisite of final route selection. Lastly, the states must provide written notice of DOT of any alternative route designation before the routes are deemed effective

  20. A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows

    Singh, Satbir; You, Donghyun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new SGS model is developed for LES of turbulent flows in complex geometries. ► A dynamic global-coefficient SGS model is coupled with a scale-similarity model. ► Overcome some of difficulties associated with eddy-viscosity closures. ► Does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for stabilization. ► The predictive capability is demonstrated in a number of turbulent flow simulations. -- Abstract: A dynamic global-coefficient mixed subgrid-scale eddy-viscosity model for large-eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometries is developed. In the present model, the subgrid-scale stress is decomposed into the modified Leonard stress, cross stress, and subgrid-scale Reynolds stress. The modified Leonard stress is explicitly computed assuming a scale similarity, while the cross stress and the subgrid-scale Reynolds stress are modeled using the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model. The model coefficient is determined by a dynamic procedure based on the global-equilibrium between the subgrid-scale dissipation and the viscous dissipation. The new model relieves some of the difficulties associated with an eddy-viscosity closure, such as the nonalignment of the principal axes of the subgrid-scale stress tensor and the strain rate tensor and the anisotropy of turbulent flow fields, while, like other dynamic global-coefficient models, it does not require averaging or clipping of the model coefficient for numerical stabilization. The combination of the global-coefficient eddy-viscosity model and a scale-similarity model is demonstrated to produce improved predictions in a number of turbulent flow simulations

  1. Global dynamics for switching systems and their extensions by linear differential equations

    Huttinga, Zane; Cummins, Bree; Gedeon, Tomáš; Mischaikow, Konstantin

    2018-03-01

    Switching systems use piecewise constant nonlinearities to model gene regulatory networks. This choice provides advantages in the analysis of behavior and allows the global description of dynamics in terms of Morse graphs associated to nodes of a parameter graph. The parameter graph captures spatial characteristics of a decomposition of parameter space into domains with identical Morse graphs. However, there are many cellular processes that do not exhibit threshold-like behavior and thus are not well described by a switching system. We consider a class of extensions of switching systems formed by a mixture of switching interactions and chains of variables governed by linear differential equations. We show that the parameter graphs associated to the switching system and any of its extensions are identical. For each parameter graph node, there is an order-preserving map from the Morse graph of the switching system to the Morse graph of any of its extensions. We provide counterexamples that show why possible stronger relationships between the Morse graphs are not valid.

  2. [Public-private partnerships (PPPs) in the health sector: global processes and national dynamics].

    Almeida, Celia

    2017-10-02

    This essay addresses several dimensions that promote and consolidate the growing participation by private stakeholders in the decision-making process in health, emphasizing international and domestic factors that have facilitated and sustained the persistence of the neoliberal political and ideological perspective over the course of nearly thirty years (since the 1990s). The article emphasizes the role of intergovernmental organizations in this process, highlighting public-private interactions at the global and domestic levels, with a specific focus on so-called public-private partnerships (PPPs). The working premise is that such linkages alter the power relations in policy formulation and implementation, with a predominance of private stakeholders. The article presents an overview of the development of PPPs in Europe, Latin America, and Brazil, identifying their specific origins and the simultaneity of triggering events. The text reiterates the importance of not overlooking the power of these actors in dislodging them from this political position, whether in multilateral organizations or national health systems. The aim is to emphasize the importance of more in-depth reflection on the subject, backing debates within the sector. This entire dynamic requires rethinking strategies of resistance to preserve the rights won through centuries of struggle.

  3. Global dynamics for switching systems and their extensions by linear differential equations.

    Huttinga, Zane; Cummins, Bree; Gedeon, Tomáš; Mischaikow, Konstantin

    2018-03-15

    Switching systems use piecewise constant nonlinearities to model gene regulatory networks. This choice provides advantages in the analysis of behavior and allows the global description of dynamics in terms of Morse graphs associated to nodes of a parameter graph. The parameter graph captures spatial characteristics of a decomposition of parameter space into domains with identical Morse graphs. However, there are many cellular processes that do not exhibit threshold-like behavior and thus are not well described by a switching system. We consider a class of extensions of switching systems formed by a mixture of switching interactions and chains of variables governed by linear differential equations. We show that the parameter graphs associated to the switching system and any of its extensions are identical. For each parameter graph node, there is an order-preserving map from the Morse graph of the switching system to the Morse graph of any of its extensions. We provide counterexamples that show why possible stronger relationships between the Morse graphs are not valid.

  4. Automatic, Global and Dynamic Student Modeling in a Ubiquitous Learning Environment

    Sabine Graf

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Ubiquitous learning allows students to learn at any time and any place. Adaptivity plays an important role in ubiquitous learning, aiming at providing students with adaptive and personalized learning material, activities, and information at the right place and the right time. However, for providing rich adaptivity, the student model needs to be able to gather a variety of information about the students. In this paper, an automatic, global, and dynamic student modeling approach is introduced, which aims at identifying and frequently updating information about students’ progress, learning styles, interests and knowledge level, problem solving abilities, preferences for using the system, social connectivity, and current location. This information is gathered in an automatic way, using students’ behavior and actions in different learning situations provided by different components/services of the ubiquitous learning environment. By providing a comprehensive student model, students can be supported by rich adaptivity in every component/service of the learning environment. Furthermore, the information in the student model can help in giving teachers a better understanding about the students’ learning process.

  5. Modeling vegetation and carbon dynamics of managed grasslands at the global scale with LPJmL 3.6

    Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, Christoph; Heinke, Jens; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bondeau, Alberte; Boons-Prins, Eltje R.; Bouwman, Alexander F.; Leffelaar, Peter A.; te Roller, Johnny A.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2018-02-01

    Grassland management affects the carbon fluxes of one-third of the global land area and is thus an important factor for the global carbon budget. Nonetheless, this aspect has been largely neglected or underrepresented in global carbon cycle models. We investigate four harvesting schemes for the managed grassland implementation of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) that facilitate a better representation of actual management systems globally. We describe the model implementation and analyze simulation results with respect to harvest, net primary productivity and soil carbon content and by evaluating them against reported grass yields in Europe. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for differences in grassland management by assessing potential livestock grazing densities as well as the impacts of grazing, grazing intensities and mowing systems on soil carbon stocks. Grazing leads to soil carbon losses in polar or arid regions even at moderate livestock densities (management options enables assessments of the global grassland production and its impact on the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles but requires a global data set on current grassland management.

  6. On line routing per mobile phone

    Bieding, Thomas; Görtz, Simon; Klose, Andreas

    2009-01-01

    On-line routing is concerned with building vehicle routes in an ongoing fashion in such a way that customer requests arriving dynamically in time are efficiently and effectively served. An indispensable prerequisite for applying on-line routing methods is mobile communication technology....... Additionally it is of utmost importance that the employed communication system is suitable integrated with the firm’s enterprise application system and business processes. On basis of a case study, we describe in this paper a system that is cheap and easy to implement due to the use of simple mobile phones...

  7. Ising model for packet routing control

    Horiguchi, Tsuyoshi; Takahashi, Hideyuki; Hayashi, Keisuke; Yamaguchi, Chiaki

    2004-01-01

    For packet routing control in computer networks, we propose an Ising model which is defined in order to express competition among a queue length and a distance from a node with a packet to its destination node. By introducing a dynamics for a mean-field value of an Ising spin, we show by computer simulations that effective control of packet routing through priority links is possible

  8. Self-Interested Routing in Queueing Networks

    Ali K. Parlaktürk; Sunil Kumar

    2004-01-01

    We study self-interested routing in stochastic networks, taking into account the discrete stochastic dynamics of such networks. We analyze a two-station multiclass queueing network in which the system manager chooses the scheduling rule and individual customers choose routes in a self-interested manner. We show that this network can be unstable in Nash equilibrium under some scheduling rules. We also design a nontrivial scheduling rule that negates the performance degradation resulting from s...

  9. Remotely Sensed Based Lake/Reservoir Routing in Congo River Basin

    Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Lee, H.

    2017-12-01

    Lake and reservoir dynamics can influence local to regional water cycles but are often not well represented in hydrologic models. One challenge that limits their inclusion in models is the need for detailed storage-discharge behavior that can be further complicated in reservoirs where specific operation rules are employed. Here, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is combined with a remotely sensed based Reservoir Routing (RR) method and applied to the Congo River Basin. Given that topographic data are often continuous over the entire terrestrial surface (i.e., does not differentiate between land and open water), the HRR-RR model integrates topographic derived river networks and catchment boundaries (e.g., HydroSHEDs) with water boundary extents (e.g., Global Lakes and Wetlands Database) to develop the computational framework. The catchments bordering lakes and reservoirs are partitioned into water and land portions, where representative flowpath characteristics are determined and vertical water balance and lateral routings is performed separately on each partition based on applicable process models (e.g., open water evaporation vs. evapotranspiration). To enable reservoir routing, remotely sensed water surface elevations and extents are combined to determine the storage change time series. Based on the available time series, representative storage change patterns are determined. Lake/reservoir routing is performed by combining inflows from the HRR-RR model and the representative storage change patterns to determine outflows. In this study, a suite of storage change patterns derived from remotely sensed measurements are determined representative patterns for wet, dry and average conditions. The HRR-RR model dynamically selects and uses the optimal storage change pattern for the routing process based on these hydrologic conditions. The HRR-RR model results are presented to highlight the importance of lake attenuation/routing in the Congo Basin.

  10. Intervening in global markets to improve access to HIV/AIDS treatment: an analysis of international policies and the dynamics of global antiretroviral medicines markets

    Hochstadt Jenny

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Universal access to antiretroviral therapy (ART in low- and middle-income countries faces numerous challenges: increasing numbers of people needing ART, new guidelines recommending more expensive antiretroviral (ARV medicines, limited financing, and few fixed-dose combination (FDC products. Global initiatives aim to promote efficient global ARV markets, yet little is known about market dynamics and the impact of global policy interventions. Methods We utilize several data sources, including 12,958 donor-funded, adult first-line ARV purchase transactions, to describe the market from 2002-2008. We examine relationships between market trends and: World Health Organization (WHO HIV/AIDS treatment guidelines; WHO Prequalification Programme (WHO Prequal and United States (US Food and Drug Administration (FDA approvals; and procurement policies of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR and UNITAID. Results WHO recommended 7, 4, 24, and 6 first-line regimens in 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2009 guidelines, respectively. 2009 guidelines replaced a stavudine-based regimen ($88/person/year with more expensive zidovudine- ($154-260/person/year or tenofovir-based ($244-465/person/year regimens. Purchase volumes for ARVs newly-recommended in 2006 (emtricitabine, tenofovir increased >15-fold from 2006 to 2008. Twenty-four generic FDCs were quality-approved for older regimens but only four for newer regimens. Generic FDCs were available to GFATM recipients in 2004 but to PEPFAR recipients only after FDA approval in 2006. Price trends for single-component generic medicines mirrored generic FDC prices. Two large-scale purchasers, PEPFAR and UNITAID, together accounted for 53%, 84%, and 77% of market volume for abacavir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir, respectively, in 2008. PEPFAR and UNITAID purchases were often split across two manufacturers. Conclusions Global initiatives

  11. Intervening in global markets to improve access to HIV/AIDS treatment: an analysis of international policies and the dynamics of global antiretroviral medicines markets.

    Waning, Brenda; Kyle, Margaret; Diedrichsen, Ellen; Soucy, Lyne; Hochstadt, Jenny; Bärnighausen, Till; Moon, Suerie

    2010-05-25

    Universal access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries faces numerous challenges: increasing numbers of people needing ART, new guidelines recommending more expensive antiretroviral (ARV) medicines, limited financing, and few fixed-dose combination (FDC) products. Global initiatives aim to promote efficient global ARV markets, yet little is known about market dynamics and the impact of global policy interventions. We utilize several data sources, including 12,958 donor-funded, adult first-line ARV purchase transactions, to describe the market from 2002-2008. We examine relationships between market trends and: World Health Organization (WHO) HIV/AIDS treatment guidelines; WHO Prequalification Programme (WHO Prequal) and United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approvals; and procurement policies of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM), US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and UNITAID. WHO recommended 7, 4, 24, and 6 first-line regimens in 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2009 guidelines, respectively. 2009 guidelines replaced a stavudine-based regimen ($88/person/year) with more expensive zidovudine- ($154-260/person/year) or tenofovir-based ($244-465/person/year) regimens. Purchase volumes for ARVs newly-recommended in 2006 (emtricitabine, tenofovir) increased >15-fold from 2006 to 2008. Twenty-four generic FDCs were quality-approved for older regimens but only four for newer regimens. Generic FDCs were available to GFATM recipients in 2004 but to PEPFAR recipients only after FDA approval in 2006. Price trends for single-component generic medicines mirrored generic FDC prices. Two large-scale purchasers, PEPFAR and UNITAID, together accounted for 53%, 84%, and 77% of market volume for abacavir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir, respectively, in 2008. PEPFAR and UNITAID purchases were often split across two manufacturers. Global initiatives facilitated the creation of fairly efficient markets

  12. Low-cost airlines consolidation as a feature of air transpoet globalization

    Maltsev Andrey A.; Matveeva Anastasiya V.

    2017-01-01

    The increased industry consolidation resulting in the formation of new highly organized forms of cooperation is referred as one of the main features of air transport globalization at the present stage. Consolidation allows carriers to overcome the excessive competition and to strengthen their market position. It also helps them to optimize the route network and organizational structure of the company. This article includes the analysis of the dynam-ics of global air passenger traffic by low-c...

  13. Syndromes of the global water crisis - exploring the emergent dynamics through socio-hydrological modeling

    Kuil, Linda; Levy, Morgan; Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitch; Penny, Gopal; Scott, Christopher; Srinivasan, Veena; Thompson, Sally; Troy, Tara

    2014-05-01

    agency components of the model are central to the model structure, thereby accounting for the co-evolutionary nature of human-water systems. Second, the model is designed to be general and integrative aimed at the simulation of emergent qualitative dynamics of the human-water system. The explicit inclusion of feedbacks and the aim of the model to capture the general dynamics as opposed to case-specific trajectories will allow us to deepen our fundamental understanding of the causal pathways leading to water crises across multiple locations. All authors contributed equally to this work. Srinivasan, V., Lambin, E.F., Gorelick, S.M., Thompson, B.H., Rozelle, S., 2012. The nature and causes of the global water crisis: Syndromes from a meta-analysis of coupled human-water studies. Water Resources Research 48(10), doi:10.1029/2011WR011087

  14. Development of international labor migration in the dynamics of globalization processes

    Rubinskaya Eteri, D.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The current characteristics of international migration caused by the qualitative changes that occur in the global economy under influence of increasing globalization. The paper attempts to suggest periodization of the global economy development and to identify features of international labor migration occurred under the influence of deep changes in the world economy. During this period, the author identifies three stages in the formation of globalization, the transition criterion from one to other is the degree of world economy changes under the influence of the productive forces development and the major social and political transformations resulted in qualitative changes in the processes of international labor migration. At the same time in the context of globalization the place and role of international labor migration changes in the global economy system: migration becomes a means of promoting the globalization of countries and regions, the most important factor of demographic development and economic growth.

  15. Description and validation of the Simple, Efficient, Dynamic, Global, Ecological Simulator (SEDGES v.1.0)

    Paiewonsky, Pablo; Elison Timm, Oliver

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we present a simple dynamic global vegetation model whose primary intended use is auxiliary to the land-atmosphere coupling scheme of a climate model, particularly one of intermediate complexity. The model simulates and provides important ecological-only variables but also some hydrological and surface energy variables that are typically either simulated by land surface schemes or else used as boundary data input for these schemes. The model formulations and their derivations are presented here, in detail. The model includes some realistic and useful features for its level of complexity, including a photosynthetic dependency on light, full coupling of photosynthesis and transpiration through an interactive canopy resistance, and a soil organic carbon dependence for bare-soil albedo. We evaluate the model's performance by running it as part of a simple land surface scheme that is driven by reanalysis data. The evaluation against observational data includes net primary productivity, leaf area index, surface albedo, and diagnosed variables relevant for the closure of the hydrological cycle. In this setup, we find that the model gives an adequate to good simulation of basic large-scale ecological and hydrological variables. Of the variables analyzed in this paper, gross primary productivity is particularly well simulated. The results also reveal the current limitations of the model. The most significant deficiency is the excessive simulation of evapotranspiration in mid- to high northern latitudes during their winter to spring transition. The model has a relative advantage in situations that require some combination of computational efficiency, model transparency and tractability, and the simulation of the large-scale vegetation and land surface characteristics under non-present-day conditions.

  16. Global conformational dynamics of a Y-family DNA polymerase during catalysis.

    Cuiling Xu

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Replicative DNA polymerases are stalled by damaged DNA while the newly discovered Y-family DNA polymerases are recruited to rescue these stalled replication forks, thereby enhancing cell survival. The Y-family DNA polymerases, characterized by low fidelity and processivity, are able to bypass different classes of DNA lesions. A variety of kinetic and structural studies have established a minimal reaction pathway common to all DNA polymerases, although the conformational intermediates are not well defined. Furthermore, the identification of the rate-limiting step of nucleotide incorporation catalyzed by any DNA polymerase has been a matter of long debate. By monitoring time-dependent fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET signal changes at multiple sites in each domain and DNA during catalysis, we present here a real-time picture of the global conformational transitions of a model Y-family enzyme: DNA polymerase IV (Dpo4 from Sulfolobus solfataricus. Our results provide evidence for a hypothetical DNA translocation event followed by a rapid protein conformational change prior to catalysis and a subsequent slow, post-chemistry protein conformational change. Surprisingly, the DNA translocation step was induced by the binding of a correct nucleotide. Moreover, we have determined the directions, rates, and activation energy barriers of the protein conformational transitions, which indicated that the four domains of Dpo4 moved in a synchronized manner. These results showed conclusively that a pre-chemistry conformational change associated with domain movements was too fast to be the rate-limiting step. Rather, the rearrangement of active site residues limited the rate of correct nucleotide incorporation. Collectively, the conformational dynamics of Dpo4 offer insights into how the inter-domain movements are related to enzymatic function and their concerted interactions with other proteins at the replication fork.

  17. Value of dynamic susceptibility contrast perfusion MRI in the acute phase of transient global amnesia.

    Alex Förster

    Full Text Available Transient global amnesia (TGA is a transitory, short-lasting neurological disorder characterized by a sudden onset of antero- and retrograde amnesia. Perfusion abnormalities in TGA have been evaluated mainly by use of positron emission tomography (PET or single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT. In the present study we explore the value of dynamic susceptibility contrast perfusion-weighted MRI (PWI in TGA in the acute phase.From a MRI report database we identified TGA patients who underwent MRI including PWI in the acute phase and compared these to control subjects. Quantitative perfusion maps (cerebral blood flow (CBF and volume (CBV were generated and analyzed by use of Signal Processing In NMR-Software (SPIN. CBF and CBV values in subcortical brain regions were assessed by use of VOI created in FIRST, a model-based segmentation tool in the Oxford Centre for Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the Brain (FMRIB Software Library (FSL.Five TGA patients were included (2 men, 3 women. On PWI, no relevant perfusion alterations were found by visual inspection in TGA patients. Group comparisons for possible differences between TGA patients and control subjects showed significant lower rCBF values bilaterally in the hippocampus, in the left thalamus and globus pallidus as well as bilaterally in the putamen and the left caudate nucleus. Correspondingly, significant lower rCBV values were observed bilaterally in the hippocampus and the putamen as well as in the left caudate nucleus. Group comparisons for possible side differences in rCBF and rCBV values in TGA patients revealed a significant lower rCBV value in the left caudate nucleus.Mere visual inspection of PWI is not sufficient for the assessment of perfusion changes in TGA in the acute phase. Group comparisons with healthy control subjects might be useful to detect subtle perfusion changes on PWI in TGA patients. However, this should be confirmed in larger data sets and serial PWI

  18. Dynamic routing and spectrum assignment based on multilayer virtual topology and ant colony optimization in elastic software-defined optical networks

    Wang, Fu; Liu, Bo; Zhang, Lijia; Zhang, Qi; Tian, Qinghua; Tian, Feng; Rao, Lan; Xin, Xiangjun

    2017-07-01

    Elastic software-defined optical networks greatly improve the flexibility of the optical switching network while it has brought challenges to the routing and spectrum assignment (RSA). A multilayer virtual topology model is proposed to solve RSA problems. Two RSA algorithms based on the virtual topology are proposed, which are the ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithm of minimum consecutiveness loss and the ACO algorithm of maximum spectrum consecutiveness. Due to the computing power of the control layer in the software-defined network, the routing algorithm avoids the frequent link-state information between routers. Based on the effect of the spectrum consecutiveness loss on the pheromone in the ACO, the path and spectrum of the minimal impact on the network are selected for the service request. The proposed algorithms have been compared with other algorithms. The results show that the proposed algorithms can reduce the blocking rate by at least 5% and perform better in spectrum efficiency. Moreover, the proposed algorithms can effectively decrease spectrum fragmentation and enhance available spectrum consecutiveness.

  19. Existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales.

    Li, Bing; Li, Yongkun; Zhang, Xuemei

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, by using the existence of the exponential dichotomy of linear dynamic equations on time scales and the theory of calculus on time scales, we study the existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for a class of n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales. We also present an example to illustrate the feasibility of our results. The results of this paper are completely new and complementary to the previously known results even in both the case of differential equations (time scale [Formula: see text]) and the case of difference equations (time scale [Formula: see text]).

  20. Route Choice Model Based on Game Theory for Commuters

    Licai Yang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The traffic behaviours of commuters may cause traffic congestion during peak hours. Advanced Traffic Information System can provide dynamic information to travellers. Due to the lack of timeliness and comprehensiveness, the provided information cannot satisfy the travellers’ needs. Since the assumptions of traditional route choice model based on Expected Utility Theory conflict with the actual situation, a route choice model based on Game Theory is proposed to provide reliable route choice to commuters in actual situation in this paper. The proposed model treats the alternative routes as game players and utilizes the precision of predicted information and familiarity of traffic condition to build a game. The optimal route can be generated considering Nash Equilibrium by solving the route choice game. Simulations and experimental analysis show that the proposed model can describe the commuters’ routine route choice decisionexactly and the provided route is reliable.

  1. Potential and flux field landscape theory. I. Global stability and dynamics of spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems.

    Wu, Wei; Wang, Jin

    2013-09-28

    We established a potential and flux field landscape theory to quantify the global stability and dynamics of general spatially dependent non-equilibrium deterministic and stochastic systems. We extended our potential and flux landscape theory for spatially independent non-equilibrium stochastic systems described by Fokker-Planck equations to spatially dependent stochastic systems governed by general functional Fokker-Planck equations as well as functional Kramers-Moyal equations derived from master equations. Our general theory is applied to reaction-diffusion systems. For equilibrium spatially dependent systems with detailed balance, the potential field landscape alone, defined in terms of the steady state probability distribution functional, determines the global stability and dynamics of the system. The global stability of the system is closely related to the topography of the potential field landscape in terms of the basins of attraction and barrier heights in the field configuration state space. The effective driving force of the system is generated by the functional gradient of the potential field alone. For non-equilibrium spatially dependent systems, the curl probability flux field is indispensable in breaking detailed balance and creating non-equilibrium condition for the system. A complete characterization of the non-equilibrium dynamics of the spatially dependent system requires both the potential field and the curl probability flux field. While the non-equilibrium potential field landscape attracts the system down along the functional gradient similar to an electron moving in an electric field, the non-equilibrium flux field drives the system in a curly way similar to an electron moving in a magnetic field. In the small fluctuation limit, the intrinsic potential field as the small fluctuation limit of the potential field for spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems, which is closely related to the steady state probability distribution functional, is

  2. Global En Route Basing Infrastructure Location Model

    2006-05-01

    Charleston, SC, USA (KCHS) N 32 53.92 W 80 2.43 Mildenhall, England ( EGUN ) N 52 21.72 E 0 29.18 Moron AB, SP (LEMO) N 37 10.50 E 5 37.00 Rota NS, SP...England ( EGUN ) N 52 21.72 E 0 29.18 Moron AB, SP (LEMO) N 37 10.50 E 5 37.00 Rota NS, SP (LERT) N 36 38.70 E 6 21.00 Spangdahlem AB (ETAD) N 49 58.40

  3. Assessing the Resilience of Global Sea Routes

    2012-06-01

    Salmeron Thesis Advisor Gerald G. Brown Second Reader Robert F. Dell Chair, Department of Operations Research iv THIS PAGE...Japan 730.10 639.10 1.14 Korea South 464.30 422.40 1.10 Malaysia 197.00 152.60 1.29 Netherlands 486.70 429.50 1.13 Norway 132.70 74.30 1.79 Pakistan...9.1%, Singapore 8.7%, South Korea 8%, India 6.3%, Malaysia 5.9% Italy Germany 13.2%, France 11.7%, Spain 5.9%, U.S. 5.8%, U.K. 5.4%, Switzerland 4.6

  4. Neo-Extractivism in Latin America – one side of a new phase of global capitalist dynamics

    Ulrich Brand; Kristina Dietz; Miriam Lang

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this text is to make sense of the emerging political-institutional, territorial, and socio-ecological dynamics and contradictions of neo-extractivism in Latin America in the context of global capitalist development. In contrast to some existing literature, we argue that the term ‘neo-extractivism’ should not be restricted to countries with progressive governments but be applied to all Latin American societies that, since the 1970s and especially since the year 2000, depend predomin...

  5. Unique contributions of dynamic versus global measures of parent-child interaction quality in predicting school adjustment.

    Bardack, Sarah; Herbers, Janette E; Obradović, Jelena

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the unique contribution of microsocial and global measures of parent-child positive coregulation (PCR) in predicting children's behavioral and social adjustment in school. Using a community sample of 102 children, ages 4-6, and their parents, we conducted nested path analytic models to identify the unique effects of 2 measures of PCR on school outcomes. Microsocial PCR independently predicted fewer externalizing and inattention/impulsive behaviors in school. Global PCR did not uniquely relate to children's behavioral and social adjustment outcomes. Household socioeconomic status was related to both microsocial and global measures of PCR, but not directly associated with school outcomes. Findings illustrate the importance of using dynamic measures of PCR based on microsocial coding to further understand how the quality of parent-child interaction is related to children's self-regulatory and social development during school transition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Formation of giant molecular clouds in global spiral structures: the role of orbital dynamics and cloud-cloud collisions

    Roberts, W.W. Jr.; Stewart, G.R.

    1987-01-01

    The different roles played by orbital dynamics and dissipative cloud-cloud collisions in the formation of giant molecular clouds (GMCs) in a global spiral structure are investigated. The interstellar medium (ISM) is simulated by a system of particles, representing clouds, which orbit in a spiral-perturbed, galactic gravitational field. The overall magnitude and width of the global cloud density distribution in spiral arms is very similar in the collisional and collisionless simulations. The results suggest that the assumed number density and size distribution of clouds and the details of individual cloud-cloud collisions have relatively little effect on these features. Dissipative cloud-cloud collisions play an important steadying role for the cloud system's global spiral structure. Dissipative cloud-cloud collisions also damp the relative velocity dispersion of clouds in massive associations and thereby aid in the effective assembling of GMC-like complexes

  7. The dynamics of the global capital and its consequences on agriculture and in rural spaces

    Moreira, Manuel Belo

    2002-01-01

    In this paper globalization is conceptualised as a process that marks a new phase of capitalism (Moreira 1994). The aim of this paper is to propose a systematic approach to the economic and social consequences of the globalization process, with particular attention to agriculture and agri-food as well as the use of rural areas. Therefore, understanding the role of the main agents of globalization is a necessary condition to assess the impact of this process. My working hypothesis is that the ...

  8. An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

    Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

    2018-04-01

    Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

  9. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    Gutowski, William J.; Prusa, Joseph M.; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.

    2012-05-08

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the "physics" of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited. 3a. EULAG Advances EULAG is a non-hydrostatic, parallel computational model for all-scale geophysical flows. EULAG's name derives from its two computational options: EULerian (flux form) or semi-LAGrangian (advective form). The model combines nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT) numerical algorithms with a robust elliptic Krylov solver. A signature feature of EULAG is that it is formulated in generalized time-dependent curvilinear coordinates. In particular, this enables grid adaptivity. In total, these features give EULAG novel advantages over many existing dynamical cores. For EULAG itself, numerical advances included refining boundary conditions and filters for optimizing model performance in polar regions. We also added flexibility to the model's underlying formulation, allowing it to work with the pseudo-compressible equation set of Durran in addition to EULAG's standard anelastic formulation. Work in collaboration with others also extended the

  10. Broadband Electrophysiological Dynamics Contribute to Global Resting-State fMRI Signal.

    Wen, Haiguang; Liu, Zhongming

    2016-06-01

    Spontaneous activity observed with resting-state fMRI is used widely to uncover the brain's intrinsic functional networks in health and disease. Although many networks appear modular and specific, global and nonspecific fMRI fluctuations also exist and both pose a challenge and present an opportunity for characterizing and understanding brain networks. Here, we used a multimodal approach to investigate the neural correlates to the global fMRI signal in the resting state. Like fMRI, resting-state power fluctuations of broadband and arrhythmic, or scale-free, macaque electrocorticography and human magnetoencephalography activity were correlated globally. The power fluctuations of scale-free human electroencephalography (EEG) were coupled with the global component of simultaneously acquired resting-state fMRI, with the global hemodynamic change lagging the broadband spectral change of EEG by ∼5 s. The levels of global and nonspecific fluctuation and synchronization in scale-free population activity also varied across and depended on arousal states. Together, these results suggest that the neural origin of global resting-state fMRI activity is the broadband power fluctuation in scale-free population activity observable with macroscopic electrical or magnetic recordings. Moreover, the global fluctuation in neurophysiological and hemodynamic activity is likely modulated through diffuse neuromodulation pathways that govern arousal states and vigilance levels. This study provides new insights into the neural origin of resting-state fMRI. Results demonstrate that the broadband power fluctuation of scale-free electrophysiology is globally synchronized and directly coupled with the global component of spontaneous fMRI signals, in contrast to modularly synchronized fluctuations in oscillatory neural activity. These findings lead to a new hypothesis that scale-free and oscillatory neural processes account for global and modular patterns of functional connectivity observed

  11. Global long-term cost dynamics of offshore wind electricity generation

    Gernaat, David E H J; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Van Vliet, Jasper; Sullivan, Patrick; Arent, Douglas J.

    2014-01-01

    Using the IMAGE/TIMER (The Targets IMage Energy Regional) long-term integrated assessment model, this paper explores the regional and global potential of offshore wind to contribute to global electricity production. We develop long-term cost supply curve for offshore wind, a representation of the

  12. Exploring the Dynamics of Globalization: Supply Chain Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

    Kalafsky, Ronald V.; Conner, Neil

    2015-01-01

    Global supply chains play an increasingly important role in the economy and should therefore be addressed within geography coursework, especially given concerns that geographers have not fully explored various angles of globalization. This article explores the use of an online case study on supply chains and their vulnerability to natural…

  13. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-08-01

    Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH

  14. Dynamic Inversion of Global Surface Microwave Emissivity Using a 1DVAR Approach

    Sid-Ahmed Boukabara

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A variational inversion scheme is used to extract microwave emissivity spectra from brightness temperatures over a multitude of surface types. The scheme is called the Microwave Integrated Retrieval System and has been implemented operationally since 2007 at NOAA. This study focuses on the Advance Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU/MHS pair onboard the NOAA-18 platform, but the algorithm is applied routinely to multiple microwave sensors, including the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS on Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP, Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/S on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP flight units, as well as to the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM Microwave Imager (GMI, to name a few. The emissivity spectrum retrieval is entirely based on a physical approach. To optimize the use of information content from the measurements, the emissivity is extracted simultaneously with other parameters impacting the measurements, namely, the vertical profiles of temperature, moisture and cloud, as well as the skin temperature and hydrometeor parameters when rain or ice are present. The final solution is therefore a consistent set of parameters that fit the measured brightness temperatures within the instrument noise level. No ancillary data are needed to perform this dynamic emissivity inversion. By allowing the emissivity to be part of the retrieved state vector, it becomes easy to handle the pixel-to-pixel variation in the emissivity over non-oceanic surfaces. This is particularly important in highly variable surface backgrounds. The retrieved emissivity spectrum by itself is of value (as a wetness index for instance, but it is also post-processed to determine surface geophysical parameters. Among the parameters retrieved from the emissivity using this approach are snow cover, snow water equivalent and effective grain size over snow-covered surfaces, sea-ice concentration and age from ice

  15. Global transgenerational gene expression dynamics in two newly synthesized allohexaploid wheat (Triticum aestivum lines

    Qi Bao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alteration in gene expression resulting from allopolyploidization is a prominent feature in plants, but its spectrum and extent are not fully known. Common wheat (Triticum aestivum was formed via allohexaploidization about 10,000 years ago, and became the most important crop plant. To gain further insights into the genome-wide transcriptional dynamics associated with the onset of common wheat formation, we conducted microarray-based genome-wide gene expression analysis on two newly synthesized allohexaploid wheat lines with chromosomal stability and a genome constitution analogous to that of the present-day common wheat. Results Multi-color GISH (genomic in situ hybridization was used to identify individual plants from two nascent allohexaploid wheat lines between Triticum turgidum (2n = 4x = 28; genome BBAA and Aegilops tauschii (2n = 2x = 14; genome DD, which had a stable chromosomal constitution analogous to that of common wheat (2n = 6x = 42; genome BBAADD. Genome-wide analysis of gene expression was performed for these allohexaploid lines along with their parental plants from T. turgidum and Ae. tauschii, using the Affymetrix Gene Chip Wheat Genome-Array. Comparison with the parental plants coupled with inclusion of empirical mid-parent values (MPVs revealed that whereas the great majority of genes showed the expected parental additivity, two major patterns of alteration in gene expression in the allohexaploid lines were identified: parental dominance expression and non-additive expression. Genes involved in each of the two altered expression patterns could be classified into three distinct groups, stochastic, heritable and persistent, based on their transgenerational heritability and inter-line conservation. Strikingly, whereas both altered patterns of gene expression showed a propensity of inheritance, identity of the involved genes was highly stochastic, consistent with the involvement of diverse Gene Ontology (GO

  16. Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

    2013-12-01

    Bark thickness is a key trait protecting woody plants against fire damage, while the ability to resprout is a trait that confers competitive advantage over non-resprouting individuals in fire-prone landscapes. Neither trait is well represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we describe a version of the Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Mv1) DGVM that incorporates both of these traits in a realistic way. From a synthesis of a large number of field studies, we show there is considerable innate variability in bark thickness between species within a plant-functional type (PFT). Furthermore, bark thickness is an adaptive trait at ecosystem level, increasing with fire frequency. We use the data to specify the range of bark thicknesses characteristic of each model PFT. We allow this distribution to change dynamically: thinner-barked trees are killed preferentially by fire, shifting the distribution of bark thicknesses represented in a model grid cell. We use the PFT-specific bark-thickness probability range for saplings during re-establishment. Since it is rare to destroy all trees in a grid cell, this treatment results in average bark thickness increasing with fire frequency and intensity. Resprouting is a prominent adaptation of temperate and tropical trees in fire-prone areas. The ability to resprout from above-ground tissue (apical or epicormic resprouting) results in the fastest recovery of total biomass after disturbance; resprouting from basal or below-ground meristems results in slower recovery, while non-resprouting species must regenerate from seed and therefore take the longest time to recover. Our analyses show that resprouting species have thicker bark than non-resprouting species. Investment in resprouting is accompanied by reduced efficacy of regeneration from seed. We introduce resprouting PFTs in LPX-Mv1 by specifying an appropriate range of bark thickness, allowing resprouters to survive fire and regenerate vegetatively in

  17. Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis.

    Gutierrez, Luciano

    2017-01-01

    Although the widespread influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences on crop yields of the main agricultural commodities is well known, the global socio-economic consequences of ENSO still remain uncertain. Given the global importance of wheat for global consumption by providing 20% of global calories and nourishment, the monitoring and prediction of ENSO-induced variations in the worldwide wheat market are essential for allowing national governments to manage the associated risks and to ensure the supplies of wheat for consumers, including the underprivileged. To this end, we propose a global dynamic model for the analysis of ENSO impacts on wheat yield anomalies, export prices, exports and stock-to-use ratios. Our framework focuses on seven countries/regions: the six main wheat-exporting countries-the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the group of the main Black Sea export countries, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan-plus the rest of the world. The study shows that La Niña exerts, on average, a stronger and negative impact on wheat yield anomalies, exports and stock-to-use ratios than El Niño. In contrast, wheat export prices are positively related to La Niña occurrences evidencing, once again, its steady impact in both the short and long run. Our findings emphasize the importance of the two ENSO extreme phases for the worldwide wheat market.

  18. Deterministic global optimization algorithm based on outer approximation for the parameter estimation of nonlinear dynamic biological systems.

    Miró, Anton; Pozo, Carlos; Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo; Egea, Jose A; Jiménez, Laureano

    2012-05-10

    The estimation of parameter values for mathematical models of biological systems is an optimization problem that is particularly challenging due to the nonlinearities involved. One major difficulty is the existence of multiple minima in which standard optimization methods may fall during the search. Deterministic global optimization methods overcome this limitation, ensuring convergence to the global optimum within a desired tolerance. Global optimization techniques are usually classified into stochastic and deterministic. The former typically lead to lower CPU times but offer no guarantee of convergence to the global minimum in a finite number of iterations. In contrast, deterministic methods provide solutions of a given quality (i.e., optimality gap), but tend to lead to large computational burdens. This work presents a deterministic outer approximation-based algorithm for the global optimization of dynamic problems arising in the parameter estimation of models of biological systems. Our approach, which offers a theoretical guarantee of convergence to global minimum, is based on reformulating the set of ordinary differential equations into an equivalent set of algebraic equations through the use of orthogonal collocation methods, giving rise to a nonconvex nonlinear programming (NLP) problem. This nonconvex NLP is decomposed into two hierarchical levels: a master mixed-integer linear programming problem (MILP) that provides a rigorous lower bound on the optimal solution, and a reduced-space slave NLP that yields an upper bound. The algorithm iterates between these two levels until a termination criterion is satisfied. The capabilities of our approach were tested in two benchmark problems, in which the performance of our algorithm was compared with that of the commercial global optimization package BARON. The proposed strategy produced near optimal solutions (i.e., within a desired tolerance) in a fraction of the CPU time required by BARON.

  19. Documentation of the dynamic parameter, water-use, stream and lake flow routing, and two summary output modules and updates to surface-depression storage simulation and initial conditions specification options with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

    Regan, R. Steve; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

    2017-10-05

    This report documents seven enhancements to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic simulation code: two time-series input options, two new output options, and three updates of existing capabilities. The enhancements are (1) new dynamic parameter module, (2) new water-use module, (3) new Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) summary output module, (4) new basin variables summary output module, (5) new stream and lake flow routing module, (6) update to surface-depression storage and flow simulation, and (7) update to the initial-conditions specification. This report relies heavily upon U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chapter B7, which documents PRMS version 4 (PRMS-IV). A brief description of PRMS is included in this report.

  20. Understanding individual routing behaviour.

    Lima, Antonio; Stanojevic, Rade; Papagiannaki, Dina; Rodriguez, Pablo; González, Marta C

    2016-03-01

    Knowing how individuals move between places is fundamental to advance our understanding of human mobility (González et al. 2008 Nature 453, 779-782. (doi:10.1038/nature06958)), improve our urban infrastructure (Prato 2009 J. Choice Model. 2, 65-100. (doi:10.1016/S1755-5345(13)70005-8)) and drive the development of transportation systems. Current route-choice models that are used in transportation planning are based on the widely accepted assumption that people follow the minimum cost path (Wardrop 1952 Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. 1, 325-362. (doi:10.1680/ipeds.1952.11362)), despite little empirical support. Fine-grained location traces collected by smart devices give us today an unprecedented opportunity to learn how citizens organize their travel plans into a set of routes, and how similar behaviour patterns emerge among distinct individual choices. Here we study 92 419 anonymized GPS trajectories describing the movement of personal cars over an 18-month period. We group user trips by origin-destination and we find that most drivers use a small number of routes for their routine journeys, and tend to have a preferred route for frequent trips. In contrast to the cost minimization assumption, we also find that a significant fraction of drivers' routes are not optimal. We present a spatial probability distribution that bounds the route selection space within an ellipse, having the origin and the destination as focal points, characterized by high eccentricity independent of the scale. While individual routing choices are not captured by path optimization, their spatial bounds are similar, even for trips performed by distinct individuals and at various scales. These basic discoveries can inform realistic route-choice models that are not based on optimization, having an impact on several applications, such as infrastructure planning, routing recommendation systems and new mobility solutions. © 2016 The Author(s).

  1. Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

    Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

    2018-04-01

    The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional

  2. Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

    Pfeil, Diana Michalek; Balakrishnan, Hamsa

    2012-01-01

    Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage to schedule and route traffic. This paper demonstrates how raw convective weather forecasts, which provide deterministic predictions of the vertically integrated liquid (the precipitation content in a column of airspace) can be translated into probabilistic forecasts of whether or not a terminal area route will be blocked. Given a flight route through the terminal area, we apply techniques from machine learning to determine the likelihood that the route will be open in actual weather. The likelihood is then used to optimize terminalarea operations by dynamically moving arrival and departure routes to maximize the expected capacity of the terminal area. Experiments using real weather scenarios on stormy days show that our algorithms recommend that a terminal-area route be modified 30% of the time, opening up 13% more available routes that were forecast to be blocked during these scenarios. The error rate is low, with only 5% of cases corresponding to a modified route being blocked in reality, whereas the original route is in fact open. In addition, for routes predicted to be open with probability 0.95 or greater by our method, 96% of these routes (on average over time horizon) are indeed open in the weather that materializes

  3. Comparative empirical analysis of flow-weighted transit route networks in R-space and evolution modeling

    Huang, Ailing; Zang, Guangzhi; He, Zhengbing; Guan, Wei

    2017-05-01

    Urban public transit system is a typical mixed complex network with dynamic flow, and its evolution should be a process coupling topological structure with flow dynamics, which has received little attention. This paper presents the R-space to make a comparative empirical analysis on Beijing’s flow-weighted transit route network (TRN) and we found that both the Beijing’s TRNs in the year of 2011 and 2015 exhibit the scale-free properties. As such, we propose an evolution model driven by flow to simulate the development of TRNs with consideration of the passengers’ dynamical behaviors triggered by topological change. The model simulates that the evolution of TRN is an iterative process. At each time step, a certain number of new routes are generated driven by travel demands, which leads to dynamical evolution of new routes’ flow and triggers perturbation in nearby routes that will further impact the next round of opening new routes. We present the theoretical analysis based on the mean-field theory, as well as the numerical simulation for this model. The results obtained agree well with our empirical analysis results, which indicate that our model can simulate the TRN evolution with scale-free properties for distributions of node’s strength and degree. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the global evolutional mechanism of transit network that will be used to exploit planning and design strategies for real TRNs.

  4. Analyzing multiday route choice behavior of commuters using GPS data

    Wenyun Tang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, accurate global position system and geographic information system data were employed to reveal multiday routes people used and to study multiday route choice behavior for the same origin–destination trips, from home to work. A new way of thinking about route choice modeling is provided in this study. Travelers are classified into three kinds based on the deviation between actual routes and the shortest travel time paths. Based on the classification, a two-stage route choice process is proposed, in which the first step is to classify the travelers and the second one is to model route choice behavior. After analyzing the characteristics of different types of travelers, an artificial neural network was adopted to classify travelers and model route choice behavior. An empirical study using global position systems data collected in Minneapolis–St Paul metropolitan area was carried out. It finds that most travelers follow the same route during commute trips on successive days. And different types of travelers have a significant difference in route choice property. The modeling results indicate that neural network framework can classify travelers and model route choice well.

  5. Against Globalization

    Philipsen, Lotte; Baggesgaard, Mads Anders

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand globalization, we need to consider what globalization is not. That is, in order to understand the mechanisms and elements that work toward globalization, we must, in a sense, read against globalization, highlighting the limitations of the concept and its inherent conflicts....... Only by employing this as a critical practice will we be analytically able to gain a dynamic understanding of the forces of globalization as they unfold today and as they have developed historically....

  6. Book Review: Jandl, Thomas, Vietnam in the Global Economy – The Dy-namics of Integration, Decentralization and Contested Politics

    Adam Fforde

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Book Review of the Monograph: Thomas Jandl (2013, Vietnam in the Global Economy – The Dynamics of Integration, Decentralization and Contested Politics. Plymouth: Lexington Books, ISBN 978-0-7391-7786-0, 312 pages

  7. A Clustering Routing Protocol for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

    Jinke Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic topology of a mobile ad hoc network poses a real challenge in the design of hierarchical routing protocol, which combines proactive with reactive routing protocols and takes advantages of both. And as an essential technique of hierarchical routing protocol, clustering of nodes provides an efficient method of establishing a hierarchical structure in mobile ad hoc networks. In this paper, we designed a novel clustering algorithm and a corresponding hierarchical routing protocol for large-scale mobile ad hoc networks. Each cluster is composed of a cluster head, several cluster gateway nodes, several cluster guest nodes, and other cluster members. The proposed routing protocol uses proactive protocol between nodes within individual clusters and reactive protocol between clusters. Simulation results show that the proposed clustering algorithm and hierarchical routing protocol provide superior performance with several advantages over existing clustering algorithm and routing protocol, respectively.

  8. Routing and scheduling problems

    Reinhardt, Line Blander

    couple of decades. To deliver competitive service and price, transportation today needs to be cost effective. A company requiring for things to be shipped will aim at having the freight shipped as cheaply as possible while often satisfying certain time constraints. For the transportation company......, the effectiveness of the network is of importance aiming at satisfying as many costumer demands as possible at a low cost. Routing represent a path between locations such as an origin and destination for the object routed. Sometimes routing has a time dimension as well as the physical paths. This may...... set cost making the cost of the individual vehicle routes inter-dependant. Depending on the problem type, the size of the problems and time available for solving, different solution methods can be applicable. In this thesis both heuristic methods and several exact methods are investigated depending...

  9. Class network routing

    Bhanot, Gyan [Princeton, NJ; Blumrich, Matthias A [Ridgefield, CT; Chen, Dong [Croton On Hudson, NY; Coteus, Paul W [Yorktown Heights, NY; Gara, Alan G [Mount Kisco, NY; Giampapa, Mark E [Irvington, NY; Heidelberger, Philip [Cortlandt Manor, NY; Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D [Mount Kisco, NY; Takken, Todd E [Mount Kisco, NY; Vranas, Pavlos M [Bedford Hills, NY

    2009-09-08

    Class network routing is implemented in a network such as a computer network comprising a plurality of parallel compute processors at nodes thereof. Class network routing allows a compute processor to broadcast a message to a range (one or more) of other compute processors in the computer network, such as processors in a column or a row. Normally this type of operation requires a separate message to be sent to each processor. With class network routing pursuant to the invention, a single message is sufficient, which generally reduces the total number of messages in the network as well as the latency to do a broadcast. Class network routing is also applied to dense matrix inversion algorithms on distributed memory parallel supercomputers with hardware class function (multicast) capability. This is achieved by exploiting the fact that the communication patterns of dense matrix inversion can be served by hardware class functions, which results in faster execution times.

  10. Proxies for Anonymous Routing

    Reed, Michael G; Syverson, Paul F; Goldschlag, David M

    1996-01-01

    ...), and file transfers (FTP) have been implemented. Onion routing provides application independent, real-time, and bi-directional anonymous connections that are resistant to both eavesdropping and traffic analysis...

  11. Routes and Stations

    Department of Homeland Security — he Routes_Stations table is composed of fixed rail transit systems within the Continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico....

  12. Routed planar networks

    David J. Aldous

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Modeling a road network as a planar graph seems very natural. However, in studying continuum limits of such networks it is useful to take {\\em routes} rather than {\\em edges} as primitives. This article is intended to introduce the relevant (discrete setting notion of {\\em routed network} to graph theorists. We give a naive classification of all 71 topologically different such networks on 4 leaves, and pose a variety of challenging research questions.

  13. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    G. Tang

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981–2006 climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981–2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52. The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15% with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt

  14. LOTIR: A Routing Protocol for Multi-hop V-to-I Communication Using Local Traffic Information

    Kun-chan Lan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular Ad Hoc Network (VANET is an emerging technology that can be applied to safety, transport efficiency, or infotainment applications for roads and highways. However, due to its unique features, such as dynamic mobility patterns and uneven distributions of vehicles, VANET faces many challenging research issues for robust data dissemination in the network. Many routing protocols have been proposed for VANET in the past few years, and the idea of utilizing a navigation system to assist the routing protocol for selecting the next best forwarder has become increasingly popular. However, it might not be realistic to assume that every vehicle is equipped with a navigation system. In addition, due to privacy concerns, drivers might not want to reveal their planned routes to other cars. In this work, we propose a new routing protocol, called LOTIR (LOcal Traffic Information Routing, that relies on only local traffic information and does not require the assistance of a navigation system. LOTIR is a DTN-based routing protocol that utilizes the car-following theory and traffic light information to decide the next carrier to forward the data to. We implement LOTIR in NS-2, and our results show that it can achieve similar performance as prior work which depends on the availability of global network topology information.

  15. The self-consistent dynamic pole tide in non-global oceans

    Dickman, S. R.

    1988-01-01

    The dynamic pole tide is determined by solving Laplace tide equations which take into account the presence of continents in oceans, oceanic self-gravitation and loading, and mantle elasticity. Dynamical effects are found to be only mild. It is shown that the dynamical pole tide contributes about one day more to the Chandler period than a static pole tide would, and dissipates wobble energy at a very weak rate. It is noted that, depending on the wobble period predicted for an oceanless elastic earth, mantle anelasticity at low frequencies may nevertheless contribute negligibly to the Chandler period.

  16. Smaller global and regional carbon emissions from gross land use change when considering sub-grid secondary land cohorts in a global dynamic vegetation model

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Wei

    2018-02-01

    Several modelling studies reported elevated carbon emissions from historical land use change (ELUC) by including bidirectional transitions on the sub-grid scale (termed gross land use change), dominated by shifting cultivation and other land turnover processes. However, most dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that have implemented gross land use change either do not account for sub-grid secondary lands, or often have only one single secondary land tile over a model grid cell and thus cannot account for various rotation lengths in shifting cultivation and associated secondary forest age dynamics. Therefore, it remains uncertain how realistic the past ELUC estimations are and how estimated ELUC will differ between the two modelling approaches with and without multiple sub-grid secondary land cohorts - in particular secondary forest cohorts. Here we investigated historical ELUC over 1501-2005 by including sub-grid forest age dynamics in a DGVM. We run two simulations, one with no secondary forests (Sageless) and the other with sub-grid secondary forests of six age classes whose demography is driven by historical land use change (Sage). Estimated global ELUC for 1501-2005 is 176 Pg C in Sage compared to 197 Pg C in Sageless. The lower ELUC values in Sage arise mainly from shifting cultivation in the tropics under an assumed constant rotation length of 15 years, being 27 Pg C in Sage in contrast to 46 Pg C in Sageless. Estimated cumulative ELUC values from wood harvest in the Sage simulation (31 Pg C) are however slightly higher than Sageless (27 Pg C) when the model is forced by reconstructed harvested areas because secondary forests targeted in Sage for harvest priority are insufficient to meet the prescribed harvest area, leading to wood harvest being dominated by old primary forests. An alternative approach to quantify wood harvest ELUC, i.e. always harvesting the close-to-mature forests in both Sageless and Sage, yields similar values of 33 Pg C by both

  17. Is Earth F**ked? Dynamical Futility of Global Environmental Management and Possibilities for Sustainability via Direct Action Activism

    wErnEr, B.

    2012-12-01

    Environmental challenges are dynamically generated within the dominant global culture principally by the mismatch between short-time-scale market and political forces driving resource extraction/use and longer-time-scale accommodations of the Earth system to these changes. Increasing resource demand is leading to the development of two-way, nonlinear interactions between human societies and environmental systems that are becoming global in extent, either through globalized markets and other institutions or through coupling to global environmental systems such as climate. These trends are further intensified by dissipation-reducing technological advances in transactions, communication and transport, which suppress emergence of longer-time-scale economic and political levels of description and facilitate long-distance connections, and by predictive environmental modeling, which strengthens human connections to a short-time-scale virtual Earth, and weakens connections to the longer time scales of the actual Earth. Environmental management seeks to steer fast scale economic and political interests of a coupled human-environmental system towards longer-time-scale consideration of benefits and costs by operating within the confines of the dominant culture using a linear, engineering-type connection to the system. Perhaps as evidenced by widespread inability to meaningfully address such global environmental challenges as climate change and soil degradation, nonlinear connections reduce the ability of managers to operate outside coupled human-environmental systems, decreasing their effectiveness in steering towards sustainable interactions and resulting in managers slaved to short-to-intermediate-term interests. In sum, the dynamics of the global coupled human-environmental system within the dominant culture precludes management for stable, sustainable pathways and promotes instability. Environmental direct action, resistance taken from outside the dominant culture, as in

  18. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    Parshad, Rana; Agusto, Folashade B.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect

  19. Global sensitivity analysis for an integrated model for simulation of nitrogen dynamics under the irrigation with treated wastewater.

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong; Wang, Xiugui

    2015-11-01

    As the amount of water resources that can be utilized for agricultural production is limited, the reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation is a practical solution to alleviate the water crisis in China. The process-based models, which estimate nitrogen dynamics under irrigation, are widely used to investigate the best irrigation and fertilization management practices in developed and developing countries. However, for modeling such a complex system for wastewater reuse, it is critical to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine numerous input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output for the development of process-based model. In this study, application of a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for nitrogen dynamics was reported. The objective was to compare different global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the key parameters for different model predictions of nitrogen and crop growth modules. The analysis was performed as two steps. Firstly, Morris screening method, which is one of the most commonly used screening method, was carried out to select the top affected parameters; then, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST) was used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of selected parameters on model predictions. The results of GSA showed that strong parameter interactions exist in crop nitrogen uptake, nitrogen denitrification, crop yield, and evapotranspiration modules. Among all parameters, one of the soil physical-related parameters named as the van Genuchten air entry parameter showed the largest sensitivity effects on major model predictions. These results verified that more effort should be focused on quantifying soil parameters for more accurate model predictions in nitrogen- and crop-related predictions, and stress the need to better calibrate the model in a global sense. This study demonstrates the advantages of the GSA on a

  20. Scientific Final Report: COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: CONTINUOUS DYNAMIC GRID ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC MODEL: APPLICATION AND REFINEMENT

    William J. Gutowski; Joseph M. Prusa, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz

    2012-04-09

    This project had goals of advancing the performance capabilities of the numerical general circulation model EULAG and using it to produce a fully operational atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) that can employ either static or dynamic grid stretching for targeted phenomena. The resulting AGCM combined EULAG's advanced dynamics core with the 'physics' of the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). Effort discussed below shows how we improved model performance and tested both EULAG and the coupled CAM-EULAG in several ways to demonstrate the grid stretching and ability to simulate very well a wide range of scales, that is, multi-scale capability. We leveraged our effort through interaction with an international EULAG community that has collectively developed new features and applications of EULAG, which we exploited for our own work summarized here. Overall, the work contributed to over 40 peer-reviewed publications and over 70 conference/workshop/seminar presentations, many of them invited.

  1. Automated and dynamic scheduling for geodetic VLBI - A simulation study for AuScope and global networks

    Iles, E. J.; McCallum, L.; Lovell, J. E. J.; McCallum, J. N.

    2018-02-01

    As we move into the next era of geodetic VLBI, the scheduling process is one focus for improvement in terms of increased flexibility and the ability to react with changing conditions. A range of simulations were conducted to ascertain the impact of scheduling on geodetic results such as Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs) and station coordinates. The potential capabilities of new automated scheduling modes were also simulated, using the so-called 'dynamic scheduling' technique. The primary aim was to improve efficiency for both cost and time without losing geodetic precision, particularly to maximise the uses of the Australian AuScope VLBI array. We show that short breaks in observation will not significantly degrade the results of a typical 24 h experiment, whereas simply shortening observing time degrades precision exponentially. We also confirm the new automated, dynamic scheduling mode is capable of producing the same standard of result as a traditional schedule, with close to real-time flexibility. Further, it is possible to use the dynamic scheduler to augment the 3 station Australian AuScope array and thereby attain EOPs of the current global precision with only intermittent contribution from 2 additional stations. We thus confirm automated, dynamic scheduling bears great potential for flexibility and automation in line with aims for future continuous VLBI operations.

  2. Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition

    Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA – a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at http://bio.uni.lu/systems_biology/software/dyglosa. It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at www.sbtoolbox2.org. DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits. PMID:24367574

  3. Switch of sensitivity dynamics revealed with DyGloSA toolbox for dynamical global sensitivity analysis as an early warning for system's critical transition.

    Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA - a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at http://bio.uni.lu/systems_biology/software/dyglosa. It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at www.sbtoolbox2.org. DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits.

  4. Role of zooplankton dynamics for Southern Ocean phytoplankton biomass and global biogeochemical cycles

    Le Quéré, Corinne; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Moriarty, Róisín

    2016-01-01

    zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton community growth rates. This result has implications for the representation of global biogeochemical cycles in models as zooplankton faecal pellets sink rapidly and partly control the carbon export to the intermediate and deep ocean....

  5. Limit sets and global dynamic for 2-D divergence-free vector fields

    Marzougui, H.

    2004-08-01

    T. Ma and S. Wang studied the global structure of regular divergence-free vector fields on compact surfaces with or without boundary. This paper extends their study to the general case of divergence-free vector fields (regular or not) on closed surfaces and gives as a consequence a simple proof of their results. (author)

  6. Global Innovation Systems—A conceptual framework for innovation dynamics in transnational contexts

    Binz, Christian; Truffer, Bernhard|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/6603148005

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework for the analysis of technological innovation processes in transnational contexts. By drawing on existing innovation system concepts and recent elaborations on the globalization of innovation, we develop a multi-scalar conceptualization of innovation systems. Two key

  7. Stochastic Delay Population Dynamics under Regime Switching: Global Solutions and Extinction

    Zheng Wu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a delay Lotka-Volterra model under regime switching diffusion in random environment. By using generalized Itô formula, Gronwall inequality and Young’s inequality, some sufficient conditions for existence of global positive solutions and stochastically ultimate boundedness are obtained, respectively. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the main results.

  8. Estimating global copper demand until 2100 with regression and stock dynamics

    Schipper, Branco W.; Lin, Hsiu Chuan; Meloni, Marco A.; Wansleeben, Kjell; Heijungs, Reinout; van der Voet, Ester

    2018-01-01

    Future global copper demand is expected to keep rising due to copper's indispensable role in modern technologies. Unfortunately, increasing copper extraction and decreasing ore grades intensify energy use and generate higher environmental impact. A potential solution would be reaching a circular

  9. Dynamic Mobile IP routers in ad hoc networks

    Kock, B.A.; Schmidt, J.R.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a concept combining mobile IP and ad hoc routing to create a robust mobile network. In this network all nodes are mobile and globally and locally reachable under the same IP address. Essential for implementing this network are the dynamic mobile IP routers. They act as gateways

  10. Adjoint sensitivity of global cloud droplet number to aerosol and dynamical parameters

    V. A. Karydis

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We present the development of the adjoint of a comprehensive cloud droplet formation parameterization for use in aerosol-cloud-climate interaction studies. The adjoint efficiently and accurately calculates the sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC to all parameterization inputs (e.g., updraft velocity, water uptake coefficient, aerosol number and hygroscopicity with a single execution. The adjoint is then integrated within three dimensional (3-D aerosol modeling frameworks to quantify the sensitivity of CDNC formation globally to each parameter. Sensitivities are computed for year-long executions of the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI Chemical Transport Model (CTM, using wind fields computed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS Global Circulation Model (GCM II', and the GEOS-Chem CTM, driven by meteorological input from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO. We find that over polluted (pristine areas, CDNC is more sensitive to updraft velocity and uptake coefficient (aerosol number and hygroscopicity. Over the oceans of the Northern Hemisphere, addition of anthropogenic or biomass burning aerosol is predicted to increase CDNC in contrast to coarse-mode sea salt which tends to decrease CDNC. Over the Southern Oceans, CDNC is most sensitive to sea salt, which is the main aerosol component of the region. Globally, CDNC is predicted to be less sensitive to changes in the hygroscopicity of the aerosols than in their concentration with the exception of dust where CDNC is very sensitive to particle hydrophilicity over arid areas. Regionally, the sensitivities differ considerably between the two frameworks and quantitatively reveal why the models differ considerably in their indirect forcing estimates.

  11. Late Miocene Pacific plate kinematic change explained with coupled global models of mantle and lithosphere dynamics

    Stotz, Ingo Leonardo; Iaffaldano, Giampiero; Davies, DR

    2017-01-01

    and the consequent subduction polarity reversal. The uncertainties associated with the timing of this event, however, make it difficult to quantitatively demonstrate a dynamical association. Here, we first reconstruct the Pacific plate's absolute motion since the mid-Miocene (15 Ma), at high-temporal resolution....../lithosphere system to test hypotheses on the dynamics driving this change. These indicate that the arrival of the OJP at the Melanesian arc, between 10 and 5 Ma, followed by a subduction polarity reversal that marked the initiation of subduction of the Australian plate underneath the Pacific realm, were the key...... drivers of this kinematic change....

  12. Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region.

    Chen, Yongxue; Wen, Yongxian

    2015-02-21

    In 2013 in China a new type of avian influenza virus, H7N9, began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. We know that the spread is from poultry to humans, and the H7N9 avian influenza is low pathogenic in the poultry world but highly pathogenic in the human world, but the transmission mechanism is unclear. Since it has no signs of human-to-human transmission and outbreaks are isolated in some cities in China, in order to investigate the transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza, an eco-epidemiological model in an outbreak region is proposed and analyzed dynamically. Researches and reports show that gene mutation makes the new virus be capable of infecting humans, therefore the mutation factor is taken into account in the model. The global dynamic analysis is conducted, different thresholds are identified, persistence and global qualitative behaviors are obtained. The impact of H7N9 avian influenza on the people population is concerned. Finally, the numerical simulations are carried out to support the theoretical analysis and to investigate the disease control measures. It seems that we may take people׳s hygiene and prevention awareness factor as a significant policy to achieve the aim of both the disease control and the economic returns. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Site-specific global warming potentials of biogenic CO2 for bioenergy: contributions from carbon fluxes and albedo dynamics

    Cherubini, Francesco; Bright, Ryan M; Strømman, Anders H

    2012-01-01

    Production of biomass for bioenergy can alter biogeochemical and biogeophysical mechanisms, thus affecting local and global climate. Recent scientific developments have mainly embraced impacts from land use changes resulting from area-expanded biomass production, with several extensive insights available. Comparably less attention, however, has been given to the assessment of direct land surface–atmosphere climate impacts of bioenergy systems under rotation such as in plantations and forested ecosystems, whereby land use disturbances are only temporary. Here, following IPCC climate metrics, we assess bioenergy systems in light of two important dynamic land use climate factors, namely, the perturbation in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration caused by the timing of biogenic CO 2 fluxes, and temporary perturbations to surface reflectivity (albedo). Existing radiative forcing-based metrics can be adapted to include such dynamic mechanisms, but high spatial and temporal modeling resolution is required. Results show the importance of specifically addressing the climate forcings from biogenic CO 2 fluxes and changes in albedo, especially when biomass is sourced from forested areas affected by seasonal snow cover. The climate performance of bioenergy systems is highly dependent on biomass species, local climate variables, time horizons, and the climate metric considered. Bioenergy climate impact studies and accounting mechanisms should rapidly adapt to cover both biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts, so that policy makers can rely on scientifically robust analyses and promote the most effective global climate mitigation options. (letter)

  14. Final Report from The University of Texas at Austin for DEGAS: Dynamic Global Address Space programming environments

    Erez, Mattan

    2018-02-21

    The Dynamic, Exascale Global Address Space programming environment (DEGAS) project will develop the next generation of programming models and runtime systems to meet the challenges of Exascale computing. Our approach is to provide an efficient and scalable programming model that can be adapted to application needs through the use of dynamic runtime features and domain-specific languages for computational kernels. We address the following technical challenges: Programmability: Rich set of programming constructs based on a Hierarchical Partitioned Global Address Space (HPGAS) model, demonstrated in UPC++. Scalability: Hierarchical locality control, lightweight communication (extended GASNet), and ef- ficient synchronization mechanisms (Phasers). Performance Portability: Just-in-time specialization (SEJITS) for generating hardware-specific code and scheduling libraries for domain-specific adaptive runtimes (Habanero). Energy Efficiency: Communication-optimal code generation to optimize energy efficiency by re- ducing data movement. Resilience: Containment Domains for flexible, domain-specific resilience, using state capture mechanisms and lightweight, asynchronous recovery mechanisms. Interoperability: Runtime and language interoperability with MPI and OpenMP to encourage broad adoption.

  15. Global Rice Watch: Spatial-temporal dynamics, driving factors, and impacts of paddy rice agriculture in the world

    Xiao, X.; Dong, J.; Zhang, G.; Xin, F.; Li, X.

    2017-12-01

    Paddy rice croplands account for more than 12% of the global cropland areas, and provide food to feed more than 50% of the world population. Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of paddy rice croplands have changed remarkably in the past decades, driven by growing human population and their changing diet structure, land use (e.g., urbanization, industrialization), climate, markets, and technologies. In this presentation, we will provide a comprehensive review of our current knowledge on (1) the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of paddy rice croplands from agricultural statistics data and remote sensing approaches; (2) major driving factors for the observed changes in paddy rice areas, including social, economic, climate, land use, markets, crop breeding technology, and farming technology; and (3) major impacts on atmospheric methane concentration, land surface temperature, water resources and use, and so on. We will highlight the results from a few case studies in China and monsoon Asia. We will also call for a global synthesis analysis of paddy rice agriculture, and invite researchers to join the effort to write and edit a book that provides comprehensive and updated knowledge on paddy rice agriculture.

  16. Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

    Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel; Tang, Chung-Muh

    1989-01-01

    Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized.

  17. Application Of Global Sensitivity Analysis And Uncertainty Quantification In Dynamic Modelling Of Micropollutants In Stormwater Runoff

    Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2012-01-01

    of uncertainty in a conceptual lumped dynamic stormwater runoff quality model that is used in a study catchment to estimate (i) copper loads, (ii) compliance with dissolved Cu concentration limits on stormwater discharge and (iii) the fraction of Cu loads potentially intercepted by a planned treatment facility...

  18. Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

    Heesterbeek, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073321427; Anderson, Roy M; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken T D; Edmunds, W John; Frost, Simon D W; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, T Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Roberts, Mick G; Viboud, Cecile

    2015-01-01

    Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales,

  19. Is There Really a Global Business Cycle? : A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Factor Selection

    T. Berger (Tino); L.C.G. Pozzi (Lorenzo)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961-2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with

  20. Global analyses of evolutionary dynamics and exhaustive search for social norms that maintain cooperation by reputation.

    Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Iwasa, Yoh

    2007-02-07

    Reputation formation is a key to understanding indirect reciprocity. In particular, the way to assign reputation to each individual, namely a norm that describes who is good and who is bad, greatly affects the possibility of sustained cooperation in the population. Previously, we have exhaustively studied reputation dynamics that are able to maintain a high level of cooperation at the ESS. However, this analysis examined the stability of monomorphic population and did not investigate polymorphic population where several strategies coexist. Here, we study the evolutionary dynamics of multiple behavioral strategies by replicator dynamics. We exhaustively study all 16 possible norms under which the reputation of a player in the next round is determined by the action of the self and the reputation of the opponent. For each norm, we explore evolutionary dynamics of three strategies: unconditional cooperators, unconditional defectors, and conditional cooperators. We find that only three norms, simple-standing, Kandori, and shunning, can make conditional cooperation evolutionarily stable, hence, realize sustained cooperation. The other 13 norms, including scoring, ultimately lead to the invasion by defectors. Also, we study the model in which private reputation errors exist to a small extent. In this case, we find the stable coexistence of unconditional and conditional cooperators under the three norms.

  1. Global Dynamics of Infectious Disease with Arbitrary Distributed Infectious Period on Complex Networks

    Xiaoguang Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the current epidemic models assume that the infectious period follows an exponential distribution. However, due to individual heterogeneity and epidemic diversity, these models fail to describe the distribution of infectious periods precisely. We establish a SIS epidemic model with multistaged progression of infectious periods on complex networks, which can be used to characterize arbitrary distributions of infectious periods of the individuals. By using mathematical analysis, the basic reproduction number R0 for the model is derived. We verify that the R0 depends on the average distributions of infection periods for different types of infective individuals, which extend the general theory obtained from the single infectious period epidemic models. It is proved that if R0<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; otherwise the unique endemic equilibrium exists such that it is globally asymptotically attractive. Finally numerical simulations hold for the validity of our theoretical results is given.

  2. Global optimization of proteins using a dynamical lattice model: Ground states and energy landscapes

    Dressel, F.; Kobe, S.

    2004-01-01

    A simple approach is proposed to investigate the protein structure. Using a low complexity model, a simple pairwise interaction and the concept of global optimization, we are able to calculate ground states of proteins, which are in agreement with experimental data. All possible model structures of small proteins are available below a certain energy threshold. The exact lowenergy landscapes for the trp cage protein (1L2Y) is presented showing the connectivity of all states and energy barriers.

  3. Migration as a context-dependent dynamic in a world of global inequalities

    Sládková, Jana; Bond, Meg A.

    2011-01-01

    Global migration is a topic of utmost importance in psychological research. As over 200 million people are on the move across national borders, and many more within their own countries, the processes of these migrations must be examined from different points of view and from different geographical locations. The articles in this special journal issue pointedly illustrate the role of international, national, community, and individual factors that shape these migrations. One cross-cutting theme...

  4. The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

    Fuessler, J S; Gassmann, F [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

  5. Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

    Heesterbeek, Hans; Anderson, Roy; Andreasen, Viggo

    2015-01-01

    The spread of infectious diseases can be unpredictable. With the emergence of antibiotic resistance and worrying new viruses, and with ambitious plans for global eradication of polio and the elimination of malaria, the stakes have never been higher. Anticipation and measurement of the multiple fa...... models used in epidemiology and how these can be harnessed to develop successful control strategies and inform public health policy...

  6. Multihop Wireless Networks Opportunistic Routing

    Zeng, Kai; Li, Ming

    2011-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to opportunistic routing an emerging technology designed to improve the packet forwarding reliability, network capacity and energy efficiency of multihop wireless networks This book presents a comprehensive background to the technological challenges lying behind opportunistic routing. The authors cover many fundamental research issues for this new concept, including the basic principles, performance limit and performance improvement of opportunistic routing compared to traditional routing, energy efficiency and distributed opportunistic routing protocol desig

  7. Simulating vegetation response to climate change in the Blue Mountains with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model

    John B. Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Warming temperatures are projected to greatly alter many forests in the Pacific Northwest. MC2 is a dynamic global vegetation model, a climate-aware, process-based, and gridded vegetation model. We calibrated and ran MC2 simulations for the Blue Mountains Ecoregion, Oregon, USA, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. We calibrated MC2 using the best available spatial datasets from land managers. We ran future simulations using climate projections from four global circulation models (GCM under representative concentration pathway 8.5. Under this scenario, forest productivity is projected to increase as the growing season lengthens, and fire occurrence is projected to increase steeply throughout the century, with burned area peaking early- to mid-century. Subalpine forests are projected to disappear, and the coniferous forests to contract by 32.8%. Large portions of the dry and mesic forests are projected to convert to woodlands, unless precipitation were to increase. Low levels of change are projected for the Umatilla National Forest consistently across the four GCM’s. For the Wallowa-Whitman and the Malheur National Forest, forest conversions are projected to vary more across the four GCM-based simulations, reflecting high levels of uncertainty arising from climate. For simulations based on three of the four GCMs, sharply increased fire activity results in decreases in forest carbon stocks by the mid-century, and the fire activity catalyzes widespread biome shift across the study area. We document the full cycle of a structured approach to calibrating and running MC2 for transparency and to serve as a template for applications of MC2. Keywords: Climate change, Regional change, Simulation, Calibration, Forests, Fire, Dynamic global vegetation model

  8. Routing the asteroid surface vehicle with detailed mechanics

    Yu, Yang; Baoyin, He-Xi

    2014-06-01

    The motion of a surface vehicle on/above an irregular object is investigated for a potential interest in the insitu explorations to asteroids of the solar system. A global valid numeric method, including detailed gravity and geomorphology, is developed to mimic the behaviors of the test particles governed by the orbital equations and surface coupling effects. A general discussion on the surface mechanical environment of a specified asteroid, 1620 Geographos, is presented to make a global evaluation of the surface vehicle's working conditions. We show the connections between the natural trajectories near the ground and differential features of the asteroid surface, which describes both the good and bad of typical terrains from the viewpoint of vehicles' dynamic performances. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to take a further look at the trajectories of particles initializing near the surface. The simulations reveal consistent conclusions with the analysis, i.e., the open-field flat ground and slightly concave basins/valleys are the best choices for the vehicles' dynamical security. The dependence of decending trajectories on the releasing height is studied as an application; the results show that the pole direction (where the centrifugal force is zero) is the most stable direction in which the shift of a natural trajectory will be well limited after landing. We present this work as an example for pre-analysis that provides guidance to engineering design of the exploration site and routing the surface vehicles.

  9. An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

  10. Radioisotope tracer approach for understanding the impacts of global change-induced pedoturbation on soil C dynamics

    Gonzalez-Meler, M. A.; Sturchio, N. C.; Sanchez-de Leon, Y.; Blanc-Betes, E.; Taneva, L.; Poghosyan, A.; Norby, R. J.; Filley, T. R.; Guilderson, T. P.; Welker, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Biogeochemical carbon-cycle feedbacks to climate are apparent but uncertain, primarily because of gaps in mechanistic understanding on the ecosystem processes that drive carbon cycling and storage in terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in soils. Recent findings are increasingly recognizing the interaction between soil biota and the soil physical environment. Soil carbon turnover is partly determined by burial of organic matter and its physical and chemical protection. These factors are potentially affected by changes in climate (freezing-thawing or wet-drying cycles) or ecosystem structure including biological invasions. A major impediment to understanding dynamics of soil C in terrestrial systems is our inability to measure soil physical processes such as soil mixing rates or turnover of soil structures, including aggregates. Here we present a multiple radioisotope tracer approach (naturally occurring and man-made) to measure soil mixing rates in response to global change. We will present evidence of soil mixing rate changes in a temperate forest exposed to increased levels of atmospheric CO2 and in a tundra ecosystem exposed to increased thermal insulation. In both cases, radioisotope tracers proved to be an effective way to measure effects of global change on pedoturbation. Results also provided insights into the specific mechanisms involved in the responses. Elevated CO2 resulted in deeper soil mixing cells (increased by about 5cm on average) when compared to control soils as a consequence of changes in biota (increased root growth, higher earthworm density). In the tundra, soil warming induced higher rates of cryoturbation, resulting in what appears to be a net uplift of organic matter to the surface thereby exposing deeper C to decomposers. In both cases, global change factors affected the vertical distribution of C and changed the amount of bulk soil actively involved in soil processes. As a consequence, comparisons of C budgets to a given soil depth in

  11. Global 30m 2000-2014 Surface Water Dynamics Map Derived from All Landsat 5, 7, and 8

    Hudson, A.; Hansen, M.

    2015-12-01

    Water is critical for human life, agriculture, and ecosystems. A better understanding of where it is and how it is changing will enable better management of this valuable resource and guide protection of sensitive ecological areas. Global water maps have typically been representations of surface water at one given time. However, there is both seasonal and interannual variability: rivers meander, lakes disappear, floods arise. To address this ephemeral nature of water, in this study University of Maryland has developed a method that analyzes every Landsat 5, 7, and 8 scene from 1999-2015 to produce global seasonal maps (Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall) of surface water dynamics from 2000-2014. Each Landsat scene is automatically classified into land, water, cloud, haze, shadow, and snow via a decision tree algorithm. The land and water observations are aggregated per pixel into percent occurrence of water in a 3 year moving window for each meteorological season. These annual water percentages form a curve for each season that is discretized into a continuous 3 band RGB map. Frequency of water observation and type of surface water change (loss, gain, peak, or dip) is clearly seen through brightness and hue respectively. Additional data layers include: the year the change began, peak year, minimum year, and the year the change process ended. Currently these maps have been created for 18 1°x1° test tiles scattered around the world, and a portion of the September-November map over Bangladesh is shown below. The entire Landsat archive from 1999-2015 will be processed through a partnership with Google Earth Engine to complete the global product in the coming months. In areas where there is sufficient satellite data density (e.g. the United States), this project could be expanded to 1984-2015. This study provides both scientific researchers and the public an understandable, temporally rich, and globally consistent map showing surface water changes over time.

  12. Energy-Aware Routing Protocol for Ad Hoc Wireless Sensor Networks

    Mann Raminder P

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Wireless ad hoc sensor networks differ from wireless ad hoc networks from the following perspectives: low energy, lightweight routing protocols, and adaptive communication patterns. This paper proposes an energy-aware routing protocol (EARP suitable for ad hoc wireless sensor networks and presents an analysis for its energy consumption in various phases of route discovery and maintenance. Based on the energy consumption associated with route request processing, EARP advocates the minimization of route requests by allocating dynamic route expiry times. This paper introduces a unique mechanism for estimation of route expiry time based on the probability of route validity, which is a function of time, number of hops, and mobility parameters. In contrast to AODV, EARP reduces the repeated flooding of route requests by maintaining valid routes for longer durations.

  13. Global-scale equatorial Rossby waves as an essential component of solar internal dynamics

    Löptien, Björn; Gizon, Laurent; Birch, Aaron C.; Schou, Jesper; Proxauf, Bastian; Duvall, Thomas L.; Bogart, Richard S.; Christensen, Ulrich R.

    2018-05-01

    The Sun’s complex dynamics is controlled by buoyancy and rotation in the convection zone. Large-scale flows are dominated by vortical motions1 and appear to be weaker than expected in the solar interior2. One possibility is that waves of vorticity due to the Coriolis force, known as Rossby waves3 or r modes4, remove energy from convection at the largest scales5. However, the presence of these waves in the Sun is still debated. Here, we unambiguously discover and characterize retrograde-propagating vorticity waves in the shallow subsurface layers of the Sun at azimuthal wavenumbers below 15, with the dispersion relation of textbook sectoral Rossby waves. The waves have lifetimes of several months, well-defined mode frequencies below twice the solar rotational frequency, and eigenfunctions of vorticity that peak at the equator. Rossby waves have nearly as much vorticity as the convection at the same scales, thus they are an essential component of solar dynamics. We observe a transition from turbulence-like to wave-like dynamics around the Rhines scale6 of angular wavenumber of approximately 20. This transition might provide an explanation for the puzzling deficit of kinetic energy at the largest spatial scales.

  14. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

  15. Spatio-temporal dynamics of global H5N1 outbreaks match bird migration patterns

    Yali Si

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in poultry, wild birds and humans, poses a significant pandemic threat and a serious public health risk. An efficient surveillance and disease control system relies on the understanding of the dispersion patterns and spreading mechanisms of the virus. A space-time cluster analysis of H5N1 outbreaks was used to identify spatio-temporal patterns at a global scale and over an extended period of time. Potential mechanisms explaining the spread of the H5N1 virus, and the role of wild birds, were analyzed. Between December 2003 and December 2006, three global epidemic phases of H5N1 influenza were identified. These H5N1 outbreaks showed a clear seasonal pattern, with a high density of outbreaks in winter and early spring (i.e., October to March. In phase I and II only the East Asia Australian flyway was affected. During phase III, the H5N1 viruses started to appear in four other flyways: the Central Asian flyway, the Black Sea Mediterranean flyway, the East Atlantic flyway and the East Africa West Asian flyway. Six disease cluster patterns along these flyways were found to be associated with the seasonal migration of wild birds. The spread of the H5N1 virus, as demonstrated by the space-time clusters, was associated with the patterns of migration of wild birds. Wild birds may therefore play an important role in the spread of H5N1 over long distances. Disease clusters were also detected at sites where wild birds are known to overwinter and at times when migratory birds were present. This leads to the suggestion that wild birds may also be involved in spreading the H5N1 virus over short distances.

  16. Dissonance and harmony between global and regional-scale seismic anisotropy and mantle dynamics

    Becker, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Huge numbers of SKS splitting observations and improved surface-wave based models of azimuthal anisotropy have advanced our understanding of how convection is recorded in mantle fabrics in the upper mantle. However, we are still debating the relative importance of frozen to actively forming olivine fabrics, subduction zone anisotropy lacks a clear reference model, and regional marine studies yield conflicting evidence as to what exactly is going on at the base of the plates and below. Here, I review the degree of agreement between regional and global observations of seismic anisotropy and how well those may be matched by first-order mantle convection models. Updated bean counting can help contextualize the spatial scales of alignment, and I discuss several examples of the relative roles of plate shear to mantle density anomalies and frozen-in structure for oceanic and continental plates. Resolution of seismological models is globally uneven, but there are some locales where such exercises may yield information on the relative strength of asthenosphere and mantle. Another long-standing question is how olivine fabrics record flow under different stress and volatile conditions. I illustrate how different petrological assumptions might be used to reconcile observations of azimuthal dependency of wave speeds for both Love and Rayleigh waves, and how this could improve our models of the upper mantle, much in the spirit of Montagner's vectorial tomography. This is but one approach to improve the regional realism of global geodynamic background models to understand where in space and time dissonance arises, and if a harmonious model may yet be constructed given our assumptions about the workings of the mantle.

  17. Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment.

    Walter Jetz

    Full Text Available Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients.

  18. Defining the next generation modeling of coastal ecotone dynamics in response to global change

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Teh, Su-Y; Krauss, Ken W.; Wang, Hongqing; Haidong, Li; Smith, Thomas; Koh, Hock L.

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global change; e.g., sea level rise (SLR) and extreme events. Over the past century, global change has resulted in salt-tolerant (halophytic) plant species migrating into upland salt-intolerant (glycophytic) dominated habitats along major rivers and large wetland expanses along the coast. While habitat transitions can be abrupt, modeling the specific drivers of abrupt change between halophytic and glycophytic vegetation is not a simple task. Correlative studies, which dominate the literature, are unlikely to establish ultimate causation for habitat shifts, and do not generate strong predictive capacity for coastal land managers and climate change adaptation exercises. In this paper, we first review possible drivers of ecotone shifts for coastal wetlands, our understanding of which has expanded rapidly in recent years. Any exogenous factor that increases growth or establishment of halophytic species will favor the ecotone boundary moving upslope. However, internal feedbacks between vegetation and the environment, through which vegetation modifies the local microhabitat (e.g., by changing salinity or surface elevation), can either help the system become resilient to future changes or strengthen ecotone migration. Following this idea, we review a succession of models that have provided progressively better insight into the relative importance of internal positive feedbacks versus external environmental factors. We end with developing a theoretical model to show that both abrupt environmental gradients and internal positive feedbacks can generate the sharp ecotonal boundaries that we commonly see, and we demonstrate that the responses to gradual global change (e.g., SLR) can be quite diverse.

  19. Whirlpool routing for mobility

    Lee, Jung Woo

    2010-01-01

    We present the Whirlpool Routing Protocol (WARP), which efficiently routes data to a node moving within a static mesh. The key insight in WARP\\'s design is that data traffic can use an existing routing gradient to efficiently probe the topology, repair the routing gradient, and communicate these repairs to nearby nodes. Using simulation, controlled testbeds, and real mobility experiments, we find that using the data plane for topology maintenance is highly effective due to the incremental nature of mobility updates. WARP leverages the fact that converging flows at a destination make the destination have the region of highest traffic. We provide a theoretical basis for WARP\\'s behavior, defining an "update area" in which the topology must adjust when a destination moves. As long as packets arrive at a destination before it moves outside of the update area, WARP can repair the topology using the data plane. Compared to existing protocols, such as DYMO and HYPER, WARP\\'s packet drop rate is up to 90% lower while sending up to 90% fewer packets.

  20. SET-Routes programme

    Marietta Schupp, EMBL Photolab

    2008-01-01

    Dr Sabine Hentze, specialist in human genetics, giving an Insight Lecture entitled "Human Genetics – Diagnostics, Indications and Ethical Issues" on 23 September 2008 at EMBL Heidelberg. Activities in a achool in Budapest during a visit of Angela Bekesi, Ambassadors for the SET-Routes programme.

  1. The variable routes of rafting: stranding dynamics of floating bull kelp Durvillaea antarctica (Fucales, Phaeophyceae) on beaches in the SE Pacific.

    López, Boris A; Macaya, Erasmo C; Tala, Fadia; Tellier, Florence; Thiel, Martin

    2017-02-01

    Dispersal on floating seaweeds depends on availability, viability, and trajectories of the rafts. In the southern hemisphere, the bull kelp Durvillaea antarctica is one of the most common floating seaweeds, but phylogeographic studies had shown low connectivity between populations from continental Chile, which could be due to limitations in local supply and dispersal of floating kelps. To test this hypothesis, the spatiotemporal dynamics of kelp strandings were examined in four biogeographic districts along the Chilean coast (28°-42°S). We determined the biomass and demography of stranded individuals on 33 beaches for three subsequent years (2013, 2014, 2015) to examine whether rafting is restricted to certain districts and seasons (winter or summer). Stranded kelps were found on all beaches. Most kelps had only one stipe (one individual), although we also frequently found coalesced holdfasts with mature males and females, which would facilitate successful rafting dispersal, gamete release, and reproduction upon arrival. High biomasses of stranded kelps occurred in the northern-central (30°S-33°S) and southernmost districts (37°S-42°S), and lower biomasses in the northernmost (28°S-30°S) and southern-central districts (33°S-37°S). The highest percentages and sizes of epibionts (Lepas spp.), indicative of prolonged floating periods, were found on stranded kelps in the northernmost and southernmost districts. Based on these results, we conclude that rafting dispersal can vary regionally, being more common in the northernmost and southernmost districts, depending on intrinsic (seaweed biology) and extrinsic factors (shore morphology and oceanography) that affect local supply of kelps and regional hydrodynamics. © 2016 Phycological Society of America.

  2. Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

    Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

    2018-04-01

    This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

  3. Conserving agrobiodiversity amid global change, migration, and nontraditional livelihood networks: the dynamic uses of cultural landscape knowledge

    Karl S. Zimmerer

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available I examined agrobiodiversity in smallholder cultural landscapes with the goal of offering new insights into management and policy options for the resilience-based in situ conservation and social-ecological sustainability of local, food-producing crop types, i.e., landraces. I built a general, integrative approach to focus on both land use and livelihood functions of crop landraces in the context of nontraditional, migration-related livelihoods amid global change. The research involved a multimethod, case-study design focused on a cultural landscape of maize, i.e., corn, growing in the Andes of central Bolivia, which is a global hot spot for this crop's agrobiodiversity. Central questions included the following: (1 What are major agroecological functions and food-related services of the agrobiodiversity of Andean maize landraces, and how are they related to cultural landscapes and associated knowledge systems? (2 What are new migration-related livelihood groups, and how are their dynamic livelihoods propelled through global change, in particular international and national migration, linked to the use and cultural landscapes of agrobiodiversity? (3 What are management and policy options derived from the previous questions? Combined social-ecological services as both cultivation and food resources are found to function in relation to the cultural landscape. Results demonstrated major variations of maturation-based, phenologic traits and food-use properties that are cornerstones of the landrace-level agrobiodiversity of Andean maize. Knowledge of these parameters is widespread. Linkage of these production and consumption functions yields a major insight into dynamics of Andean maize agrobiodiversity. Concurrently, this smallholder cultural landscape has become increasingly dependent on new rural conditions, especially increased livelihood diversification and migration amid growing peri-urban influences. Viability of landrace-level maize

  4. global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    R. Fuchs

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country, plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100 m remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems. Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as

  5. The Global Positioning System (GPS) and attitude determination: Applications and activities in the Flight Dynamics Division

    Ketchum, Eleanor; Garrick, Joe

    1995-01-01

    The application of GPS to spacecraft attitude determination is a new and growing field. Although the theoretical literature is extensive, space flight testing is currently sparse and inadequate. As an operations organization, the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) has the responsibility to investigate this new technology, and determine how best to implement the innovation to provide adequate support for future missions. This paper presents some of the current efforts within FDD with regard to GPS attitude determination. This effort specifically addresses institutional capabilities to accommodate a new type of sensor, critically evaluating the literature for recent advancements, and in examining some available -albeit crude- flight data.

  6. Local and global dynamics in a duopoly with price competition and market share delegation

    Fanti, Luciano; Gori, Luca; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims at studying a nonlinear dynamic duopoly model with price competition and horizontal product differentiation augmented with managerial firms, where managers behave according to market share delegation contracts. Ownership and management are then separate and managers are paid through adequate incentives in order to achieve a competitive advantage in the market. In this context, we show that complexity arises, related both to the structure of the attractors of the system and the structure of their basins, as multistability occurs. The study is conducted by combining analytical and numerical techniques, and aims at showing that slight different initial conditions may cause very different long-term outcomes

  7. Influence of the Built Environment on Pedestrian Route Choices of Adolescent Girls

    Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Merlin, Louis; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    We examined the influence of the built environment on pedestrian route selection among adolescent girls. Portable global positioning system units, accelerometers, and travel diaries were used to identify the origin, destination, and walking routes of girls in San Diego, California, and Minneapolis...... of route choice. Shorter distance had the strongest positive association with route choice, whereas the presence of a greenway or trail, higher safety, presence of sidewalks, and availability of destinations along a route were also consistently positively associated with route choice at both sites...

  8. Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics and their driving factors in the main global cereal cropping systems

    Wang, Guocheng; Zhang, Wen; Sun, Wenjuan; Li, Tingting; Han, Pengfei

    2017-10-01

    Changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock are determined by the balance between the carbon input from organic materials and the output from the decomposition of soil C. The fate of SOC in cropland soils plays a significant role in both sustainable agricultural production and climate change mitigation. The spatiotemporal changes of soil organic carbon in croplands in response to different carbon (C) input management and environmental conditions across the main global cereal systems were studied using a modeling approach. We also identified the key variables that drive SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) and over a long timescale (54 years from 1961 to 2014). A widely used soil C turnover model (RothC) and state-of-the-art databases of soil and climate variables were used in the present study. The model simulations suggested that, on a global average, the cropland SOC density increased at annual rates of 0.22, 0.45 and 0.69 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 under crop residue retention rates of 30, 60 and 90 %, respectively. Increasing the quantity of C input could enhance soil C sequestration or reduce the rate of soil C loss, depending largely on the local soil and climate conditions. Spatially, under a specific crop residue retention rate, relatively higher soil C sinks were found across the central parts of the USA, western Europe, and the northern regions of China. Relatively smaller soil C sinks occurred in the high-latitude regions of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and SOC decreased across the equatorial zones of Asia, Africa and America. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the crop residue retention rate (linearly positive) and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative). Temperature had weak negative effects, and precipitation had significantly negative impacts on SOC changes. The results can help guide carbon input management practices to effectively mitigate climate change through soil C

  9. Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics and their driving factors in the main global cereal cropping systems

    G. Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC stock are determined by the balance between the carbon input from organic materials and the output from the decomposition of soil C. The fate of SOC in cropland soils plays a significant role in both sustainable agricultural production and climate change mitigation. The spatiotemporal changes of soil organic carbon in croplands in response to different carbon (C input management and environmental conditions across the main global cereal systems were studied using a modeling approach. We also identified the key variables that drive SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (0.1°  ×  0.1° and over a long timescale (54 years from 1961 to 2014. A widely used soil C turnover model (RothC and state-of-the-art databases of soil and climate variables were used in the present study. The model simulations suggested that, on a global average, the cropland SOC density increased at annual rates of 0.22, 0.45 and 0.69 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 under crop residue retention rates of 30, 60 and 90 %, respectively. Increasing the quantity of C input could enhance soil C sequestration or reduce the rate of soil C loss, depending largely on the local soil and climate conditions. Spatially, under a specific crop residue retention rate, relatively higher soil C sinks were found across the central parts of the USA, western Europe, and the northern regions of China. Relatively smaller soil C sinks occurred in the high-latitude regions of both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and SOC decreased across the equatorial zones of Asia, Africa and America. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the crop residue retention rate (linearly positive and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative. Temperature had weak negative effects, and precipitation had significantly negative impacts on SOC changes. The results can help guide carbon input management practices to

  10. A dynamical link between the Arctic and the global climate system

    Dethloff, K.; Rinke, A.; Benkel, A.

    2006-01-01

    and snow albedo treatment changes the ice-albedo feedback and the radiative exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean-sea-ice system. The planetary wave energy fluxes in the middle troposphere of mid-latitudes between 30 and 50°N are redistributed, which induces perturbations in the zonal...... and meridional planetary wave trains from the tropics over the mid-latitudes into the Arctic. It is shown, that the improved parameterization of Arctic sea-ice and snow albedo can trigger changes in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation pattern with strong implications for the European climate.......By means of simulations with a global coupled AOGCM it is shown that changes in the polar energy sink region can exert a strong influence on the mid- and high-latitude climate by modulating the strength of the mid-latitude westerlies and storm tracks. It is found, that a more realistic sea-ice...

  11. Dynamics of Romanian Tourism in European Tourism in the Global Crisis. Facts and Perspectives

    Laura Olteanu

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Development of tourism as part of the service activity contributes to the development ofnational economy and hence to the development of European tourism. If tourist industry can cover asignificant share of GDP, can cover and reduce unemployment by providing jobs in this field.Economic and financial crisis influences tourism and consumer behavior of tourism services. Thedynamics of Romanian tourism in European tourism in the global crisis - facts and perspectivesprovide a comparative image of tourism in Romania among other European countries, giving anoverview of the indicators analyzed in the perspective of marketing research. Tourism activity shouldbe followed not only in terms of existing realities, but also in terms of real opportunities that canprovide an insight into the field. To know our direction we need to know our coordinates and ourpotentials. Policies and strategies applied may also determine the future development of tourism.

  12. The European crisis and global economy dynamics: Continental enlargement versus Atlantic opening

    Mendonça António

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The fundamental idea we discuss in this paper is that the failure of Europe to deal with the international crisis is due, first and foremost, to the deepening of a more specific crisis that affected the very process of European integration and developed through two main channels: one, broader, linked to the erosion of the original driving forces underpinning integration in Europe; another, more circumscribed, linked to the malfunctioning of the euro as an internal adjustment mechanism of the currency zone. To deal with these structural dimensions of the crisis, we put forward a model of a Global Europe against the model of Continental Europe that has dominated the integration process until now and in this alternative framework we discuss the potential role of Portugal and of the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries.

  13. Mediterranean Outflow Water dynamics during the past 570 kyr: Regional and global implications

    Kaboth, Stefanie; de Boer, Bas; Bahr, André; Zeeden, Christian; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-06-01

    The Gulf of Cadiz constitutes a prime area to study teleconnections between the North Atlantic Ocean and climate change in the Mediterranean realm. In particular, the highly saline Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is an important modulator of the North Atlantic salt budget on intermediate water levels. However, our understanding of its paleoceanographic evolution is poorly constrained due to the lack of high-resolution proxy records that predate the last glacial cycle. Here we present the first continuous and high-resolution ( 1 kyr) benthic δ18O and δ13C as well as grain size records from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1386 representing the last 570 kyr. We find three distinct phases of MOW variability throughout the Late to Middle Pleistocene at Site U1386 associated with prominent shifts in its composition and flow strength. We attribute this long-term variability to changes in water mass sourcing of the MOW. Superimposed on the long-term change in water mass sourcing is the occurrence of distinct and precession paced δ18O enrichment events, which contrast the pattern of global ice volume change as inferred from the global mean δ18O signal (i.e., LR04) but mimics that of the adjacent Mediterranean Sea. We attribute these enrichment events to a profound temperature reduction and salinity increases of the MOW, aligning with similar changes in the Mediterranean source region. These events might further signify ice volume increases as inferred from significant sea level drops recorded in the Red Sea and/or increased influence of North Atlantic intermediate water masses when MOW influence was absent at Site U1386.

  14. Review on Doctoral Dissertation: Drago Pupavac: Logistics operator – the factor of dynamic optimization of global logistics chains

    Ratko Zelenika

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the scientific research of this doctoral thesis is the effect of the logistics operator in the function of cutting total costs of the global logistics chain. In order to achieve the objective of the research, a number of scientific methods have been applied such as survey methods, methods of dynamic programming and mixed convex programming. Owing to the applied scientific methodology,Drago Pupovac, M.Sc. has successfully interpreted the obtained results by proving that the selective model approach to active participants of the logistics chain gives the logistics operator the insight into potential logistics network, depicts skills of individual operators in the logistics network, specifies logistics activitiesof each logistics venture, provides information on costs of specific logistics activities and in that way proves that it enables logistics operator to optimize logistics chains by protecting them from the demand instability and changes.

  15. A global mean ocean circulation estimation using goce gravity models - the DTU12MDT mean dynamic topography model

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2012-01-01

    The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, a newer gravity model have been...... combined with the DTU10MSS mean sea surface model to construct a global mean dynamic topography model named DTU10MDT. The results of preliminary analyses using preliminary GOCE gravity models clearly demonstrated the potential of GOCE mission. Both the resolution and the estimation of the surface currents...... have been improved significantly compared to results obtained using pre-GOCE gravity field models. The results of this study show that geostrophic surface currents associated with the mean circulation have been further improved and that currents having speeds down to 5 cm/s have been recovered....

  16. Periodic dynamics in queuing networks

    Addabbo, Tommaso [Information Engineering Department, University of Siena, Via Roma 56, 53100 Siena (Italy)], E-mail: addabbo@dii.unisi.it; Kocarev, Ljupco [Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, bul. Krste Misirkov 2, P.O. Box 428, 1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia (Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of)], E-mail: lkocarev@ucsd.edu

    2009-08-30

    This paper deals with state-dependent open Markovian (or exponential) queuing networks, for which arrival and service rates, as well as routing probabilities, may depend on the queue lengths. For a network of this kind, following Mandelbaum and Pats, we provide a formal definition of its associated fluid model, and we focus on the relationships which may occur between the network stochastic dynamics and the deterministic dynamics of its corresponding fluid model, particularly focusing on queuing networks whose fluid models have global periodic attractors.

  17. The global dynamics for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation

    Chen, Yiliang; Wen, Buyu; Teng, Zhidong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation which is as an important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. It is assumed that the stochastic effects manifest themselves mainly as fluctuation in the transmission coefficient, the death rate and the proportional coefficient of the isolation of infective. It is shown that the extinction and persistence in the mean of the model are determined by a threshold value R0S . That is, if R0S 1, then the disease is stochastic persistent in the means with probability one. Furthermore, the existence of a unique stationary distribution is discussed, and the sufficient conditions are established by using the Lyapunov function method. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to confirm the analytical results.

  18. Globalization of the automobile industry in China: dynamics and barriers in greening of the road transportation

    Gan Lin

    2003-01-01

    This article describes the state of the automobile industry and urban road transportation management in China. It reviews how the automobile industry is evolving to respond to challenges in economic development, environmental regulations, and technological change. The dynamics and barriers resulting from technological change of automobiles in response to reduction of exhaust emissions and energy-efficiency improvement are analyzed. It is argued that consideration of externality costs should be integrated in automobile industrial policymaking and transportation management. Efforts need to be made to use more economic incentives for emissions reduction, and to promote technological change for cleaner vehicle development. This paper questions the current government policy of encouraging private car ownership, and suggests that improvement in public transportation systems, stronger emissions control, and technology innovation on environmental friendly automobile technologies would be relevant to China's drive toward sustainable transportation development. Social inequities resulted from automobile use is also stressed in the analysis

  19. Globalization of the automobile industry in China. Dynamics and barriers in the greening of road transportation

    Gan, Lin

    2001-08-01

    This article describes the state of the automobile industry and urban road transportation management in China. It reviews how the automobile industry is evolving to respond to challenges in economic development, environmental regulations, and technological change. The dynamics and barriers resulting from technological change of the automobile in response to reduction of exhaust emissions and energy-efficiency improvement are analyzed. It is argued that consideration of externality costs should be integrated in automobile industrial policy making and transport management. This paper questions the current government policy of encouraging private car ownership, and suggests that improvement in public transportation systems and stronger emissions control would be relevant to China's drive toward sustainable transportation development. (author)

  20. Empirical global model of upper thermosphere winds based on atmosphere and dynamics explorer satellite data

    Hedin, A. E.; Spencer, N. W.; Killeen, T. L.

    1988-01-01

    Thermospheric wind data obtained from the Atmosphere Explorer E and Dynamics Explorer 2 satellites have been used to generate an empirical wind model for the upper thermosphere, analogous to the MSIS model for temperature and density, using a limited set of vector spherical harmonics. The model is limited to above approximately 220 km where the data coverage is best and wind variations with height are reduced by viscosity. The data base is not adequate to detect solar cycle (F10.7) effects at this time but does include magnetic activity effects. Mid- and low-latitude data are reproduced quite well by the model and compare favorably with published ground-based results. The polar vortices are present, but not to full detail.

  1. Globalization of the automobile industry in China: dynamics and barriers in greening of the road transportation

    Lin Gan [Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo (Norway)

    2003-05-01

    This article describes the state of the automobile industry and urban road transportation management in China. It reviews how the automobile industry is evolving to respond to challenges in economic development, environmental regulations, and technological change. The dynamics and barriers resulting from technological change of automobiles in response to reduction of exhaust emissions and energy-efficiency improvement are analysed. It is argued that consideration of externality costs should be integrated in automobile industrial policymaking and transportation management. Efforts need to be made to use more economic incentives for emissions reduction, and to promote technological change for cleaner vehicle development. This paper questions the current government policy of encouraging private car ownership, and suggests that improvement in public transportation systems, stronger emissions control, and technology innovation on environmental friendly automobile technologies would be relevant to China's drive toward sustainable transportation development. Social inequities resulted from automobile use is also stressed in the analysis. (author)

  2. Globalization of the automobile industry in China: dynamics and barriers in greening of the road transportation

    Gan Lin E-mail: lin.gan@cicero.uio.no

    2003-05-01

    This article describes the state of the automobile industry and urban road transportation management in China. It reviews how the automobile industry is evolving to respond to challenges in economic development, environmental regulations, and technological change. The dynamics and barriers resulting from technological change of automobiles in response to reduction of exhaust emissions and energy-efficiency improvement are analyzed. It is argued that consideration of externality costs should be integrated in automobile industrial policymaking and transportation management. Efforts need to be made to use more economic incentives for emissions reduction, and to promote technological change for cleaner vehicle development. This paper questions the current government policy of encouraging private car ownership, and suggests that improvement in public transportation systems, stronger emissions control, and technology innovation on environmental friendly automobile technologies would be relevant to China's drive toward sustainable transportation development. Social inequities resulted from automobile use is also stressed in the analysis.

  3. Evolution and challenges of dynamic global vegetation models for some aspects of plant physiology and elevated atmospheric CO2.

    Rezende, L F C; Arenque, B C; Aidar, S T; Moura, M S B; Von Randow, C; Tourigny, E; Menezes, R S C; Ometto, J P H B

    2016-07-01

    Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) simulate surface processes such as the transfer of energy, water, CO2, and momentum between the terrestrial surface and the atmosphere, biogeochemical cycles, carbon assimilation by vegetation, phenology, and land use change in scenarios of varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations. DGVMs increase the complexity and the Earth system representation when they are coupled with atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs) or climate models. However, plant physiological processes are still a major source of uncertainty in DGVMs. The maximum velocity of carboxylation (Vcmax), for example, has a direct impact over productivity in the models. This parameter is often underestimated or imprecisely defined for the various plant functional types (PFTs) and ecosystems. Vcmax is directly related to photosynthesis acclimation (loss of response to elevated CO2), a widely known phenomenon that usually occurs when plants are subjected to elevated atmospheric CO2 and might affect productivity estimation in DGVMs. Despite this, current models have improved substantially, compared to earlier models which had a rudimentary and very simple representation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we describe this evolution through generations of models and the main events that contributed to their improvements until the current state-of-the-art class of models. Also, we describe some main challenges for further improvements to DGVMs.

  4. Routing and scheduling and fleet management for liner shipping

    Kjeldsen, Karina Hjortshøj

    2009-01-01

    The problem of routing, scheduling and fleet management in global liner shipping is presented. The developed model incorporates the ships' speed as a decision variable. Furthermore, the model must be able to handle problems of the size and complexity experienced by the global liner shipping...

  5. Segmented Routing for Speed-Performance and Routability in Field-Programmable Gate Arrays

    Stephen Brown

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses several issues involved for routing in Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs that have both horizontal and vertical routing channels, with wire segments of various lengths. Routing is studied by using CAD routing tools to map a set of benchmark circuits into FPGAs, and measuring the effects that various parameters of the CAD tools have on the implementation of the circuits. A two-stage routing strategy of global followed by detailed routing is used, and the effects of both of these CAD stages are discussed, with emphasis on detailed routing. We present a new detailed routing algorithm designed specifically for the types of routing structures found in the most recent generation of FPGAs, and show that the new algorithm achieves significantly better results than previously published FPGA routers with respect to the speed-performance of implemented circuits.

  6. British Dance: Black Routes

    Adair, C.; Burt, Ramsay, 1953-

    2016-01-01

    British Dance: Black Routes re-examines the distinctive contributions made to British dance by dancers who are Black. Covering the period 1946 to the present, it presents a radical re-reading of dancers and their companies, placing their achievements within a broader historical, cultural and artistic context. The result of a two year research project, British Dance and the African Diaspora, led by editors Christy Adair and Ramsay Burt, the collection looks at artists working with contempor...

  7. The global dynamics of diabetes and tuberculosis: the impact of migration and policy implications

    Enrico Girardi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The convergence between tuberculosis (TB and diabetes mellitus (DM will represent a major public health challenge in the near future. DM increases the risk of developing TB by two to three times and also increases the risk of TB treatment failure, relapse, and death. The global prevalence of DM is predicted to rise significantly in the next two decades, particularly in some of the low- and middle-income countries with the highest TB burden. Migration may add further complexity to the effort to control the impact on TB of the growing DM pandemic. Migration may increase the risk of DM, although the magnitude of this association varies according to country of origin and ethnic group, due to genetic factors and lifestyle differences. Migrants with TB may have an increased prevalence of DM compared to the native population, and the risk of TB among persons with DM may be higher in migrants than in autochthonous populations. Screening for DM among migrants, screening migrants with DM for active and latent TB, and improving access to DM care, could contribute to mitigate the effects of DM on TB.

  8. Migration as a Context-Dependent Dynamic in a World of Global Inequalities

    Jana Sládková

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Global migration is a topic of utmost importance in psychological research. As over 200 million people are on the move across national borders, and many more within their own countries, the processes of these migrations must be examined from different points of view and from different geographical locations. The articles in this special journal issue pointedly illustrate the role of international, national, community, and individual factors that shape these migrations. One cross-cutting theme is the importance of studying how multiple levels of context affect immigrant and migrant experiences. All six contributions, collectively, enrich the often individual-centric psychological literature. Issues of resilience and spaces of resistance emerged as a second cross-cutting theme, pointing to new directions for acculturation research and intervention. The challenge of recognizing diversity within migrant communities and among migration patterns is a third cross-cutting theme essential to address as we work toward a more equal world in which people can more freely chose whether to stay or leave their homes.

  9. On the assimilation of absolute geodetic dynamic topography in a global ocean model: impact on the deep ocean state

    Androsov, Alexey; Nerger, Lars; Schnur, Reiner; Schröter, Jens; Albertella, Alberta; Rummel, Reiner; Savcenko, Roman; Bosch, Wolfgang; Skachko, Sergey; Danilov, Sergey

    2018-05-01

    General ocean circulation models are not perfect. Forced with observed atmospheric fluxes they gradually drift away from measured distributions of temperature and salinity. We suggest data assimilation of absolute dynamical ocean topography (DOT) observed from space geodetic missions as an option to reduce these differences. Sea surface information of DOT is transferred into the deep ocean by defining the analysed ocean state as a weighted average of an ensemble of fully consistent model solutions using an error-subspace ensemble Kalman filter technique. Success of the technique is demonstrated by assimilation into a global configuration of the ocean circulation model FESOM over 1 year. The dynamic ocean topography data are obtained from a combination of multi-satellite altimetry and geoid measurements. The assimilation result is assessed using independent temperature and salinity analysis derived from profiling buoys of the AGRO float data set. The largest impact of the assimilation occurs at the first few analysis steps where both the model ocean topography and the steric height (i.e. temperature and salinity) are improved. The continued data assimilation over 1 year further improves the model state gradually. Deep ocean fields quickly adjust in a sustained manner: A model forecast initialized from the model state estimated by the data assimilation after only 1 month shows that improvements induced by the data assimilation remain in the model state for a long time. Even after 11 months, the modelled ocean topography and temperature fields show smaller errors than the model forecast without any data assimilation.

  10. Global longitudinal strain and its dynamics after replacement of aortal valve in patients with severe aortic stenosis

    N.V. Ponych

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim – to determine factors that may influence the global longitudinal strain (GLS and its dynamics after replacement aortic valve (RAV in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS. Materials and methods. In a one-center prospective study, 30 patients with severe AS were sequentially screened for RAV surgery. Among them there were 16 (53,3 % men and 14 (46,7 % women. The median age was 63 (range from 46 to 77, quartiles 57–69 years. All patients underwent clinical and instrumental study, including transthoracic echocardiography (TTE and coronary angiography. In the early postoperative period and 6–12 months after surgery, all patients performed a repeat TTE according to a standard protocol that included an assessment of the GLS. GLS data and their dynamics was performed in the groups of patients with preserved (n = 18 and low (n = 12 left ventricular ejection fraction (LV EF. Results. In patients with preserved LV EF, the median of the preoperative GLS was –12 % (in the quartiles from –15 to –11 %, postoperative GLS –11 % (quartiles from –11 to –9 %. In patients with reduced LV EF, the median of the preoperative GLS was –6 % (from –8.5 to –4 % for quartiles, –8.5 % for postoperative GLS (from –10 to –6 % for quartiles (p < 0.001 for comparison of baseline and p < 0.05 relative to differences in dynamics of GLS in comparable groups. In the examined patients, significant correlations were found between baseline GLS with functional class of heart failure, concomitant tricuspid insufficiency, atrial fibrillation, duration of QRS complex, LV EF, end-diastolic, endsystolic volume index (EDV, ESV and volume left atrium (LA, left ventricular myocardial mass index, aortic valve orifice area index, E/A ratio, and Thei index. In turn, the positive dynamics of GLS significantly depended on the initial functional class of heart failure, the stage of arterial hypertension, the degree of tricuspid insufficiency, LV EF, the index

  11. A Multilevel Congestion-Based Global Router

    Logan Rakai

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Routing in nanometer nodes creates an elevated level of importance for low-congestion routing. At the same time, advances in mathematical programming have increased the power to solve complex problems, such as the routing problem. Hence, new routing methods need to be developed that can combine advanced mathematical programming and modeling techniques to provide low-congestion solutions. In this paper, a hierarchical mathematical programming-based global routing technique that considers congestion is proposed. The main contributions presented in this paper include (i implementation of congestion estimation based on actual routing solutions versus purely probabilistic techniques, (ii development of a congestion-based hierarchy for solving the global routing problem, and (iii generation of a robust framework for solving the routing problem using mathematical programming techniques. Experimental results illustrate that the proposed global router is capable of reducing congestion and overflow by as much as 36% compared to the state-of-the-art mathematical programming models.

  12. A novel strategy for global analysis of the dynamic thiol redox proteome.

    Martínez-Acedo, Pablo; Núñez, Estefanía; Gómez, Francisco J Sánchez; Moreno, Margoth; Ramos, Elena; Izquierdo-Álvarez, Alicia; Miró-Casas, Elisabet; Mesa, Raquel; Rodriguez, Patricia; Martínez-Ruiz, Antonio; Dorado, David Garcia; Lamas, Santiago; Vázquez, Jesús

    2012-09-01

    Nitroxidative stress in cells occurs mainly through the action of reactive nitrogen and oxygen species (RNOS) on protein thiol groups. Reactive nitrogen and oxygen species-mediated protein modifications are associated with pathophysiological states, but can also convey physiological signals. Identification of Cys residues that are modified by oxidative stimuli still poses technical challenges and these changes have never been statistically analyzed from a proteome-wide perspective. Here we show that GELSILOX, a method that combines a robust proteomics protocol with a new computational approach that analyzes variance at the peptide level, allows a simultaneous analysis of dynamic alterations in the redox state of Cys sites and of protein abundance. GELSILOX permits the characterization of the major endothelial redox targets of hydrogen peroxide in endothelial cells and reveals that hypoxia induces a significant increase in the status of oxidized thiols. GELSILOX also detected thiols that are redox-modified by ischemia-reperfusion in heart mitochondria and demonstrated that these alterations are abolished in ischemia-preconditioned animals.

  13. Global well-posedness for passively transported nonlinear moisture dynamics with phase changes

    Hittmeir, Sabine; Klein, Rupert; Li, Jinkai; Titi, Edriss S.

    2017-10-01

    We study a moisture model for warm clouds that has been used by Klein and Majda (2006 Theor. Comput. Fluid Dyn. 20 525-551) as a basis for multiscale asymptotic expansions for deep convective phenomena. These moisture balance equations correspond to a bulk microphysics closure in the spirit of Kessler (1969 Meteorol. Monogr. 10 1-84) and Grabowski and Smolarkiewicz (1996 Mon. Weather Rev. 124 487-97), in which water is present in the gaseous state as water vapor and in the liquid phase as cloud water and rain water. It thereby contains closures for the phase changes condensation and evaporation, as well as the processes of autoconversion of cloud water into rainwater and the collection of cloud water by the falling rain droplets. Phase changes are associated with enormous amounts of latent heat and therefore provide a strong coupling to the thermodynamic equation. In this work we assume the velocity field to be given and prove rigorously the global existence and uniqueness of uniformly bounded solutions of the moisture model with viscosity, diffusion and heat conduction. To guarantee local well-posedness we first need to establish local existence results for linear parabolic equations, subject to the Robin boundary conditions on the cylindric type of domains under consideration. We then derive a priori estimates, for proving the maximum principle, using the Stampacchia method, as well as the iterative method by Alikakos (1979 J. Differ. Equ. 33 201-25) to obtain uniform boundedness. The evaporation term is of power law type, with an exponent in general less or equal to one and therefore making the proof of uniqueness more challenging. However, these difficulties can be circumvented by introducing new unknowns, which satisfy the required cancellation and monotonicity properties in the source terms.

  14. Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulation: High Resolution Population Dynamics for Global Cities

    Bhaduri, B. L.; Lu, W.; Liu, C.; Thakur, G.; Karthik, R.

    2015-12-01

    In this rapidly urbanizing world, unprecedented rate of population growth is not only mirrored by increasing demand for energy, food, water, and other natural resources, but has detrimental impacts on environmental and human security. Transportation simulations are frequently used for mobility assessment in urban planning, traffic operation, and emergency management. Previous research, involving purely analytical techniques to simulations capturing behavior, has investigated questions and scenarios regarding the relationships among energy, emissions, air quality, and transportation. Primary limitations of past attempts have been availability of input data, useful "energy and behavior focused" models, validation data, and adequate computational capability that allows adequate understanding of the interdependencies of our transportation system. With increasing availability and quality of traditional and crowdsourced data, we have utilized the OpenStreetMap roads network, and has integrated high resolution population data with traffic simulation to create a Toolbox for Urban Mobility Simulations (TUMS) at global scale. TUMS consists of three major components: data processing, traffic simulation models, and Internet-based visualizations. It integrates OpenStreetMap, LandScanTM population, and other open data (Census Transportation Planning Products, National household Travel Survey, etc.) to generate both normal traffic operation and emergency evacuation scenarios. TUMS integrates TRANSIMS and MITSIM as traffic simulation engines, which are open-source and widely-accepted for scalable traffic simulations. Consistent data and simulation platform allows quick adaption to various geographic areas that has been demonstrated for multiple cities across the world. We are combining the strengths of geospatial data sciences, high performance simulations, transportation planning, and emissions, vehicle and energy technology development to design and develop a simulation

  15. Dynamics of the Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX global coupled model

    Terray, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); Universite Paris 7, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CGAM, Reading (United Kingdom); Fischer, A.S. [LODYC, Paris (France); Delecluse, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2005-02-01

    This paper uses recent gridded climatological data and a coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulation in order to assess the relationships between the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on the dynamics of the ISM-ENSO relationships and the ability of the state-of-the-art coupled GCM to reproduce the complex lead-lag relationships between the ISM and the ENSO. The coupled GCM is successful in reproducing the ISM circulation and rainfall climatology in the Indian areas even though the entire ISM circulation is weaker relative to that observed. In both observations and in the simulation, the ISM rainfall anomalies are significantly associated with fluctuations of the Hadley circulation and the 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean. A quasi-biennial time scale is found to structure the ISM dynamical and rainfall indices in both cases. Moreover, ISM indices have a similar interannual variability in the simulation and observations. The coupled model is less successful in simulating the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. Despite some problems in simulation of the annual cycle and the Southern Oscillation, the coupled model captures some aspects of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO events are phase-locked with the annual cycle as observed, but are of reduced amplitude relative to the observations. Wavelet analysis of the model Nino34 time series shows enhanced power in the 2-4 year band, as compared to the 2-8 year range for observations during the 1950-2000 period. The ISM circulation is weakened during ENSO years in both the simulation and the observations. However, the model fails to reproduce the lead-lag relationship between the ISM and Nino34 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Furthermore, lag correlations show that the delayed response of the wind stress over the central Pacific to ISM variability is insignificant in the simulation. These

  16. A Multicast Protocol Utilizing On-demand Routing Strategy for MPRN

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes a multicast protocol utilizing ondemand routing strategy for mobile packet radio network. It does not maintain permanent route tables with full topological views. Instead, multicast senders apply on-demand procedures to dynamically discover routes and build forwarding group in this protocol. The data packets are propagated by each forwarding group member via scoped flooding, so the protocol can reduce network bandwidth overhead and avoid the propagation of potentially large routing updates throughout the network.

  17. Linking the Lusi mud eruption dynamics with regional and global seismic activity: a statistical analysis.

    Collignon, Marine; Hammer, Øyvind; Fallahi, Mohammad J.; Lupi, Matteo; Schmid, Daniel W.; Alwi, Husein; Hadi, Soffian; Mazzini, Adriano

    2017-04-01

    The 29th May 2006, gas water and mud breccia started to erupt at several localities along the Watukosek fault system in the Sidoarjo Regency in East Java Indonesia. The most prominent eruption site, named Lusi, is still active and the emitted material now covers a surface of nearly 7 km2, resulting in the displacement of 60.000 people (up to date). Due to its social and economic impacts, as well as its spectacular dimensions, the Lusi eruption still attracts the attention of international media and scientists. In the framework of the Lusi Lab project (ERC grant n° 308126), many efforts were made to develop a quasi-constant monitoring of the site and the regional areas. Several studies attempted to predict the flow rate evolution or ground deformation, resulting in either overestimating or underestimating the longevity of the eruption. Models have failed because Lusi is not a mud volcano but a sedimentary hosted hydrothermal system that became apparent after the M6.3 Yogyakarta earthquake. Another reason is because such models usually assume that the flow will decrease pacing the overpressure reduction during the deflation of the chamber. These models typically consider a closed system with a unique chamber that is not being recharged. Overall the flow rate has decreased over the past ten years, although it has been largely fluctuating with monthly periods of higher mud breccia discharge. Monitoring of the eruption has revealed that numerous anomalous events are temporally linked to punctual events such as earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Nevertheless, the quantification of these events has never been investigated in details. In this study, we present a compilation of anomalous events observed at the Lusi site during the last 10 years. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we then statistically compare the displacement, recorded at different seismic stations around Lusi, with the regional and global earthquakes catalogue to test the probability that an earthquake

  18. Global protein phosphorylation dynamics during deoxynivalenol-induced ribotoxic stress response in the macrophage

    Pan, Xiao [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Center for Integrative Toxicology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Whitten, Douglas A. [Research Technology Support Facility, Proteomics Core, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Wu, Ming [Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Chan, Christina [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Wilkerson, Curtis G. [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Research Technology Support Facility, Proteomics Core, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Pestka, James J., E-mail: pestka@msu.edu [Center for Integrative Toxicology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Department of Food Science and Human Nutrition, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States)

    2013-04-15

    Deoxynivalenol (DON), a trichothecene mycotoxin produced by Fusarium that commonly contaminates food, is capable of activating mononuclear phagocytes of the innate immune system via a process termed the ribotoxic stress response (RSR). To encapture global signaling events mediating RSR, we quantified the early temporal (≤ 30 min) phosphoproteome changes that occurred in RAW 264.7 murine macrophage during exposure to a toxicologically relevant concentration of DON (250 ng/mL). Large-scale phosphoproteomic analysis employing stable isotope labeling of amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) in conjunction with titanium dioxide chromatography revealed that DON significantly upregulated or downregulated phosphorylation of 188 proteins at both known and yet-to-be functionally characterized phosphosites. DON-induced RSR is extremely complex and goes far beyond its prior known capacity to inhibit translation and activate MAPKs. Transcriptional regulation was the main target during early DON-induced RSR, covering over 20% of the altered phosphoproteins as indicated by Gene Ontology annotation and including transcription factors/cofactors and epigenetic modulators. Other biological processes impacted included cell cycle, RNA processing, translation, ribosome biogenesis, monocyte differentiation and cytoskeleton organization. Some of these processes could be mediated by signaling networks involving MAPK-, NFκB-, AKT- and AMPK-linked pathways. Fuzzy c-means clustering revealed that DON-regulated phosphosites could be discretely classified with regard to the kinetics of phosphorylation/dephosphorylation. The cellular response networks identified provide a template for further exploration of the mechanisms of trichothecenemycotoxins and other ribotoxins, and ultimately, could contribute to improved mechanism-based human health risk assessment. - Highlights: ► Mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON) induces immunotoxicity via ribotoxic stress response. ► SILAC phosphoproteomics using

  19. Global protein phosphorylation dynamics during deoxynivalenol-induced ribotoxic stress response in the macrophage

    Pan, Xiao; Whitten, Douglas A.; Wu, Ming; Chan, Christina; Wilkerson, Curtis G.; Pestka, James J.

    2013-01-01

    Deoxynivalenol (DON), a trichothecene mycotoxin produced by Fusarium that commonly contaminates food, is capable of activating mononuclear phagocytes of the innate immune system via a process termed the ribotoxic stress response (RSR). To encapture global signaling events mediating RSR, we quantified the early temporal (≤ 30 min) phosphoproteome changes that occurred in RAW 264.7 murine macrophage during exposure to a toxicologically relevant concentration of DON (250 ng/mL). Large-scale phosphoproteomic analysis employing stable isotope labeling of amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) in conjunction with titanium dioxide chromatography revealed that DON significantly upregulated or downregulated phosphorylation of 188 proteins at both known and yet-to-be functionally characterized phosphosites. DON-induced RSR is extremely complex and goes far beyond its prior known capacity to inhibit translation and activate MAPKs. Transcriptional regulation was the main target during early DON-induced RSR, covering over 20% of the altered phosphoproteins as indicated by Gene Ontology annotation and including transcription factors/cofactors and epigenetic modulators. Other biological processes impacted included cell cycle, RNA processing, translation, ribosome biogenesis, monocyte differentiation and cytoskeleton organization. Some of these processes could be mediated by signaling networks involving MAPK-, NFκB-, AKT- and AMPK-linked pathways. Fuzzy c-means clustering revealed that DON-regulated phosphosites could be discretely classified with regard to the kinetics of phosphorylation/dephosphorylation. The cellular response networks identified provide a template for further exploration of the mechanisms of trichothecenemycotoxins and other ribotoxins, and ultimately, could contribute to improved mechanism-based human health risk assessment. - Highlights: ► Mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON) induces immunotoxicity via ribotoxic stress response. ► SILAC phosphoproteomics using

  20. Robustness of airline route networks

    Lordan, Oriol; Sallan, Jose M.; Escorihuela, Nuria; Gonzalez-Prieto, David

    2016-03-01

    Airlines shape their route network by defining their routes through supply and demand considerations, paying little attention to network performance indicators, such as network robustness. However, the collapse of an airline network can produce high financial costs for the airline and all its geographical area of influence. The aim of this study is to analyze the topology and robustness of the network route of airlines following Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) and Full Service Carriers (FSCs) business models. Results show that FSC hubs are more central than LCC bases in their route network. As a result, LCC route networks are more robust than FSC networks.