Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert; Baptista, Sandra R.; Quattrochi, Dale; O'Brien, Sheila

2011-01-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of

Climate indices of Iran under climate change

OpenAIRE

alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

2009-01-01

Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

Climate and Global Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

1991-01-01

The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

Science.gov (United States)

Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

2013-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

Global multi-decadal ocean climate and small-pelagic fish population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tourre, Yves M; Lluch-Cota, Salvador E; White, Warren B

2007-01-01

Ocean climate, environmental and biological conditions vary on several spatio-temporal scales. Besides climate change associated with anthropogenic activity, there is growing evidence of a natural global multi-decadal climate signal in the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere climate system. The spatio-temporal evolution of this signal is thus analyzed during the 20th century and compared to the variability of small-pelagic fish landings. It is argued that the low-frequency global ocean environment and plankton ecosystems must be modified such that small-pelagic populations vary accordingly. A small-pelagic global index or fishing 'regime indicator series' (RIS) (i.e. a small-pelagic abundance indicator) is used. RIS is derived from fish landings data in the four main fishing areas in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Global RIS changes phase (from positive to negative values) when SST multi-decadal anomalies are out-of-phase between the eastern Pacific and southern Atlantic. RIS also displays maxima during the mid-30s to early-40s and the late-70s to early-80s when the multi-decadal signal was approximately changing phases (Tourre and White 2006 Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L06716). It is recognized that other factors may modulate fish stocks, including anthropogenic predation. Nevertheless it is proposed that variable climate and environment, and the low-frequency 'global synchrony' of small-pelagic landings (Schwartzlose et al 1999 S. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 21 289-347), could be associated with the multi-decadal changes in global ocean climate conditions

Sensitivity of health sector indicators' response to climate change in Ghana.

Science.gov (United States)

Dovie, Delali B K; Dzodzomenyo, Mawuli; Ogunseitan, Oladele A

2017-01-01

There is accumulating evidence that the emerging burden of global climate change threatens the fidelity of routine indicators for disease detection and management of risks to public health. The threat partially reflects the conservative character of the health sector and the reluctance to adopt new indicators, despite the growing awareness that existing environmental health indicators were developed to respond to risks that may no longer be relevant, and are too simplistic to also act as indicators for newer global-scale risk factors. This study sought to understand the scope of existing health indicators, while aiming to discover new indicators for building resilience against three climate sensitive diseases (cerebro spinal meningitis, malaria and diarrhea). Therefore, new potential indicators derived from human and biophysical origins were developed to complement existing health indicators, thereby creating climate-sensitive battery of robust composite indices of resilience in health planning. Using Ghana's health sector as a case study systematic international literature review, national expert consultation, and focus group outcomes yielded insights into the relevance, sensitivity and impacts of 45 indicators in 11 categories in responding to climate change. In total, 65% of the indicators were sensitive to health impacts of climate change; 24% acted directly; 31% synergistically; and 45% indirectly, with indicator relevance strongly associated with type of health response. Epidemiological indicators (e.g. morbidity) and health demographic indicators (e.g. population structure) require adjustments with external indicators (e.g. biophysical, policy) to be resilient to climate change. Therefore, selective integration of social and ecological indicators with existing public health indicators improves the fidelity of the health sector to adopt more robust planning of interdependent systems to build resilience. The study highlights growing uncertainties in

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Ocean climate indicators: A monitoring inventory and plan for tracking climate change in the north-central California coast and ocean region

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Benet; Higgason, Kelley; Suchanek, Tom; Largier, John; Stachowicz, Jay; Allen, Sarah; Bograd, Steven; Breen, R.; Gellerman, Holly; Hill, Tessa; Jahncke, Jaime; Johnson, Rebecca L.; Lonhart, Steve I.; Morgan, Steven; Wilkerson, Frances; Roletto, Jan

2013-01-01

The impacts of climate change, defined as increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide and associated increases in average global temperature and oceanic acidity, have been observed both globally and on regional scales, such as in the North-central California coast and ocean, a region that extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the Pacific coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area. Because of the high economic and ecological value of the region’s marine environment, the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS) and other agencies and organizations have recognized the need to evaluate and plan for climate change impacts. Climate change indicators can be developed on global, regional, and site-specific spatial scales, and they provide information about the presence and potential impacts of climate change. While indicators exist for the nation and for the state of California as a whole, no system of ocean climate indicators exist that specifically consider the unique characteristics of the California coast and ocean region. To that end, GFNMS collaborated with over 50 regional, federal, and state natural resource managers, research scientists, and other partners to develop a set of 2 ocean climate indicators specific to this region. A smaller working group of 13 regional partners developed monitoring goals, objectives, strategies, and activities for the indicators and recommended selected species for biological indicators, resulting in the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The working group considered current knowledge of ongoing monitoring, feasibility of monitoring, costs, and logistics in selecting monitoring activities and selected species.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

Science.gov (United States)

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

Evaluating climate change mitigation potential of hydrochars: compounding insights from three different indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Owsianiak, Mikołaj; Brooks, Jennifer; Renz, Michael

2017-01-01

beet, fava bean, onion and lucerne) and two different countries (Spain and Germany), and used three different indicators of climate change: global warming potential (GWP), global temperature change potential (GTP), and climate tipping potential (CTP). We found that although climate change benefits (GWP......) from just sequestration and temporary storage of carbon are sufficient to outweigh impacts stemming from hydrochar production and transportation to the field, even greater benefits stem from replacing climate-inefficient biowaste management treatment options, like composting in Spain. By contrast...

Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Caldeira, Ken; Wood, Lowell

2008-11-13

We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.

Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph. Buongiorno

2016-01-01

This paper explored the potential long-term effects of a warming climate on the global wood sector, based on Way and Oren's synthesis (Tree Physiology 30,669-688) indicating positive responses of tree growth to higher temperature in boreal and temperative climates, and negative responses in the topics. Changes in forest productivity were introduced in the Global...

Global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, J.S.

1991-01-01

Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

Cloud Compute for Global Climate Station Summaries

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, R.; May, B.; Cogbill, P.

2017-12-01

Global Climate Station Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically are statistical analyses of station data over 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-year or longer time periods. The summaries are computed from the global surface hourly dataset. This dataset totaling over 500 gigabytes is comprised of 40 different types of weather observations with 20,000 stations worldwide. NCEI and the U.S. Navy developed these value added products in the form of hourly summaries from many of these observations. Enabling this compute functionality in the cloud is the focus of the project. An overview of approach and challenges associated with application transition to the cloud will be presented.

Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

2018-04-01

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Brigham, L. W.

2011-12-01

Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

Regionalizing global climate models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

2012-01-01

Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

Science.gov (United States)

Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

2012-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

Evaluation of skill at simulating heatwave and heat-humidity indices in Global and Regional Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Goldie, J. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Lewis, S. C.; Sherwood, S. C.

2017-12-01

A wide body of literature now establishes the harm of extreme heat on human health, and work is now emerging on the projection of future health impacts. However, heat-health relationships vary across different populations (Gasparrini et al. 2015), so accurate simulation of regional climate is an important component of joint health impact projection. Here, we evaluate the ability of nine Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP5 and the NARCliM Regional Climate Model to reproduce a selection of 15 health-relevant heatwave and heat-humidity indices over the historical period (1990-2005) using the Perkins skill score (Perkins et al. 2007) in five Australian cities. We explore the reasons for poor model skill, comparing these modelled distributions to both weather station observations and gridded reanalysis data. Finally, we show changes in the modelled distributions from the highest-performing models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios and discuss the implications of simulated heat stress for future climate change adaptation. ReferencesGasparrini, Antonio, Yuming Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Eric Lavigne, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Aurelio Tobias, et al. "Mortality Risk Attributable to High and Low Ambient Temperature: A Multicountry Observational Study." The Lancet 386, no. 9991 (July 31, 2015): 369-75. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0. Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman, N. J. Holbrook, and J. McAneney. "Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models' Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions." Journal of Climate 20, no. 17 (September 1, 2007): 4356-76. doi:10.1175/JCLI4253.1.

An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard D Gregory

Full Text Available Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20(th and late 21(st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.

The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

2014-01-01

A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2010-12-15

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

Climate indices for vulnerability assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Persson, Gunn; Baerring, Lars; Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Rummuk ainen, Markku

2007-08-15

The demand is growing for practical information on climate projections and the impacts expected in different geographical regions and different sectors. It is a challenge to transform the vast amount of data produced in climate models into relevant information for climate change impact studies. Climate indices based on climate model data can be used as means to communicate climate change impact relations. In this report a vast amount of results is presented from a multitude of indices based on different regional climate scenarios. The regional climate scenarios described in this report show many similarities with previous scenarios in terms of general evolution and amplitude of future European climate change. The broad features are manifested in increases in warm and decreases in cold indices. Likewise are presented increases in wet indices in the north and dry indices in the south. Despite the extensive nature of the material presented, it does not cover the full range of possible climate change. We foresee a continued interactive process with stakeholders as well as continued efforts and updates of the results presented in the report.

Climate Change Indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

2015-01-01

The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

Global warming and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-10-01

A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

Lichen communities as climate indicators in the U.S. Pacific States.

Science.gov (United States)

Robert J. Smith; Sarah Jovan; Bruce. McCune

2017-01-01

Epiphytic lichens are bioindicators of climate, air quality, and other forest conditions and may reveal how forests will respond to global changes in the U.S. Pacific States of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California. We explored climate indication with lichen communities surveyed by using both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Alaska...

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

Global change of the climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moharam-nejad, Naser.

1995-01-01

Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

Indicators of Arctic Sea Ice Bistability in Climate Model Simulations and Observations

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-30

associated with the ice - albedo feedback and the seasonal melt and growth of sea ice , as well as horizontal climate variations on a global domain. (2...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Indicators of Arctic Sea Ice Bistability in Climate...possibility that the climate system supports multiple Arctic sea ice states that are relevant for the evolution of sea ice during the next several

International Business and Global Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

2008-11-15

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance.

International Business and Global Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

2008-11-01

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aanund Killingtveit

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

2006-01-01

The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

Global climate change and international security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, M.

1991-01-01

On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

Water dependency and water exploitation at global scale as indicators of water security

Science.gov (United States)

De Roo, A. P. J.; Beck, H.; Burek, P.; Bernard, B.

2015-12-01

A water dependency index has been developed indicating the dependency of water consumption from upstream sources of water, sometimes across (multiple) national border. This index is calculated at global scale using the 0.1 global LISFLOOD hydrological modelling system forced by WFDEI meteorological data for the timeframe 1979-2012. The global LISFLOOD model simulates the most important hydrological processes, as well as water abstraction and consumption from various sectors, and flood routing, at daily scale, with sub-timesteps for routing and subgrid parameterization related to elevation and landuse. The model contains also options for water allocation, to allow preferences of water use for particular sectors in water scarce periods. LISFLOOD is also used for the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), continental scale climate change impact studies on floods and droughts. The water dependency indicator is calculated on a monthly basis, and various annual and multiannual indicators are derived from it. In this study, the indicator will be compared against water security areas known from other studies. Other indicators calculated are the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+), which is a commonly use water security indicator in Europe, and freshwater resources per capita indicators at regional, national and river basin scale. Several climate scnearios are run to indicate future trends in water security.

Methods for extracting climate indicator data from social media.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuka, M. Z.; Fuka, D. R.

2011-12-01

This paper shows how we've used the R software suite to extract climate indicator data from Twitter. In the course of this research we've collected extensive data sets of unsolicited observations ("tweets") for hundreds of climate-related phenological, biological, epidemiological and meteorological effects. R has proved itself in our work as a useful tool for manipulating those large data sets. Our experience from this effort has yielded a variety of insights on using R to extract geophysics-specific information from publicly accessible social media sources. We illustrate our methodology by mapping tweeted US armadillo sightings to explore the impact of climate variability on the extent of the animal's range. This example usefully demonstrates R's technical capabilities in collecting, time-stamping, geolocating, analyzing, visualizing and otherwise processing climate-related data derived from unsolicited social media postings. We also "mash-up" the data sets with those acquired by more traditional means, for example, temperature and precipitation data across the armadillo's US range. Our data-handling practice is extendable to social sharing services other than Twitter, providing the environmental modeling community an opportunity to access largely untapped resources of non-traditional climate indicator data to better understand the effects of climate change at local, regional and global scales.

Challenges of coordinating global climate observations - Role of satellites in climate monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Richter, C.

2017-12-01

Global observation of the Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land is essential for identifying climate variability and change, and for understanding their causes. Observation also provides data that are fundamental for evaluating, refining and initializing the models that predict how the climate system will vary over the months and seasons ahead, and that project how climate will change in the longer term under different assumptions concerning greenhouse gas emissions and other human influences. Long-term observational records have enabled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to deliver the message that warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. As the Earth's climate enters a new era, in which it is forced by human activities, as well as natural processes, it is critically important to sustain an observing system capable of detecting and documenting global climate variability and change over long periods of time. High-quality climate observations are required to assess the present state of the ocean, cryosphere, atmosphere and land and place them in context with the past. The global observing system for climate is not a single, centrally managed observing system. Rather, it is a composite "system of systems" comprising a set of climate-relevant observing, data-management, product-generation and data-distribution systems. Data from satellites underpin many of the Essential Climate Variables(ECVs), and their historic and contemporary archives are a key part of the global climate observing system. In general, the ECVs will be provided in the form of climate data records that are created by processing and archiving time series of satellite and in situ measurements. Early satellite data records are very valuable because they provide unique observations in many regions which were not otherwise observed during the 1970s and which can be assimilated in atmospheric reanalyses and so extend the satellite climate data records back in time.

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

Science.gov (United States)

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, W.; Tian, H.

2015-12-01

New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

2012-01-10

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

Global Climate Change as Environmental Megacrisis

OpenAIRE

Endter-Wada, Joanna; Ingram, Helen

2012-01-01

The authors analyze global climate change utilizing insights from the governance and crisis management literatures that seek to understand the prospects, nature, characteristics and the effects of cataclysmic events. They argue that global climate change is a mega-crisis hiding in plain sight yet there has been no proportionate mega-crisis response. People are still grappling with how to make sense of climate change, how to bridge multiple ways of knowing it, and how to negotiate collective c...

Assessment of weather indicators for possible climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maqssood, H.; Ahmed, S.I.

2014-01-01

From 20 century onwards, a great concern has been expressed regarding global climate change. This study attempts to perform detailed analysis of temperature and precipitation for Karachi city of Pakistan, to assess the possible climate change, using two data sets (51-year data: 1961-2012 and 31-year data: 1981-2012) for different parameters. Trends were generated using linear regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK), which depicted that daily and annual temperatures were increasing, with changes in minimum temperature being more significant than maximum temperature. Analyses also showed increase in extreme temperature at night and during winter, showing that urbanization was a major factor, as the heat from buildings trapped in between dissipates at nights. The daily and monthly precipitation levels increased in contrast to annual precipitation trend, which is justified by the averaged monthly analysis showing that decreasing trends were much more significant than increasing trends. In addition, monthly precipitation showed an increase of 4.3 mm, using LR and MK test. It can be noticed that two extreme winter months (December and January) and two extreme hot months (May and October) received increased rainfall. However, statistical analyses showed overall annual decrease in rainfall. Furthermore, decadal analysis indicated sinusoidal behaviour of change in climate indicators; making climatic change evident but cyclic in nature. (author)

Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

2017-11-01

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: impacts of climate change, fine particulate matter formation, water consumption and land use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jolliet, Olivier; Antón, Assumpció; Boulay, Anne-Marie

2018-01-01

of water consumption on human health assesses the DALYs from malnutrition caused by lack of water for irrigated food production. Land use impacts: CFs representing global potential species loss from land use are proposed as interim recommendation suitable to assess biodiversity loss due to land use......Purpose: Guidance is needed on best-suited indicators to quantify and monitor the man-made impacts on human health, biodiversity and resources. Therefore, the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative initiated a global consensus process to agree on an updated overall life cycle impact assessment (LCIA...... are recommended: (a) The global warming potential 100 years (GWP 100) represents shorter term impacts associated with rate of change and adaptation capacity, and (b) the global temperature change potential 100 years (GTP 100) characterizes the century-scale long term impacts, both including climate-carbon cycle...

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J; Linthicum, Kenneth J

2006-12-28

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased

State of the Climate - Global Hazards

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

State of the Climate - Global Analysis

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS......-NPP) and TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land...

[The global climate: a sick patient

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lidegaard, O.; Lidegaard, M.

2008-01-01

, and major climatic disasters, including health threats to millions of people, are probable if the CO2 emission increases further. Therefore, serious global initiatives should be taken now in order to prevent global over heating. Denmark should be at the forefront of these initiatives Udgivelsesdato: 2008/8/25......Over the last 100 years the human use of fossil fuel has increased the atmospheric CO2 content from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm. This increase is expected to increase the global average temperature by a few degrees. The global climate is very sensitive to an increase in temperature...

Indicators of climate impacts for forests: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment indicators system

Science.gov (United States)

Linda S. Heath; Sarah M. Anderson; Marla R. Emery; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Jeremy Littell; Alan Lucier; Jeffrey G. Masek; David L. Peterson; Richard Pouyat; Kevin M. Potter; Guy Robertson; Jinelle Sperry; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Sarah Jovan; Miranda H. Mockrin; Robert Musselman; Bethany K. Schulz; Robert J. Smith; Susan I. Stewart

2015-01-01

The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including...

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

2016-01-01

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

2009-12-15

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curtis, Fred

2009-01-01

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

Uncertainty and global climate change research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

1994-06-01

The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

Global soil-climate-biome diagram: linking soil properties to climate and biota

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, X.; Yang, Y.; Fang, J.

2017-12-01

As a critical component of the Earth system, soils interact strongly with both climate and biota and provide fundamental ecosystem services that maintain food, climate, and human security. Despite significant progress in digital soil mapping techniques and the rapidly growing quantity of observed soil information, quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale remain unclear. By compiling a large global soil database, we mapped seven major soil properties (bulk density [BD]; sand, silt and clay fractions; soil pH; soil organic carbon [SOC] density [SOCD]; and soil total nitrogen [STN] density [STND]) based on machine learning algorithms (regional random forest [RF] model) and quantitatively assessed the linkage between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale. Our results demonstrated a global soil-climate-biome diagram, which improves our understanding of the strong correspondence between soils, climate and biomes. Soil pH decreased with greater mean annual precipitation (MAP) and lower mean annual temperature (MAT), and the critical MAP for the transition from alkaline to acidic soil pH decreased with decreasing MAT. Specifically, the critical MAP ranged from 400-500 mm when the MAT exceeded 10 °C but could decrease to 50-100 mm when the MAT was approximately 0 °C. SOCD and STND were tightly linked; both increased in accordance with lower MAT and higher MAP across terrestrial biomes. Global stocks of SOC and STN were estimated to be 788 ± 39.4 Pg (1015 g, or billion tons) and 63 ± 3.3 Pg in the upper 30-cm soil layer, respectively, but these values increased to 1654 ± 94.5 Pg and 133 ± 7.8 Pg in the upper 100-cm soil layer, respectively. These results reveal quantitative linkages between soil properties, climate and biota at the global scale, suggesting co-evolution of the soil, climate and biota under conditions of global environmental change.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

Science.gov (United States)

Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2017-05-01

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range

How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly

2011-01-01

, it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...... is subject to change and the nature of competition in agriculture-based business, focusing on wine....

Incorporating Fundamentals of Climate Monitoring into Climate Indicators at the National Climatic Data Center

Science.gov (United States)

Arndt, D. S.

2014-12-01

In recent years, much attention has been dedicated to the development, testing and implementation of climate indicators. Several Federal agencies and academic groups have commissioned suites of indicators drawing upon and aggregating information available across the spectrum of climate data stewards and providers. As a long-time participant in the applied climatology discipline, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has generated climate indicators for several decades. Traditionally, these indicators were developed for sectors with long-standing relationships with, and needs of, the applied climatology field. These have recently been adopted and adapted to meet the needs of sectors who have newfound sensitivities to climate and needs for climate data. Information and indices from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center have been prominent components of these indicator suites, and in some cases have been drafted in toto by these aggregators, often with improvements to the communicability and aesthetics of the indicators themselves. Across this history of supporting needs for indicators, NCDC climatologists developed a handful of practical approaches and philosophies that inform a successful climate monitoring product. This manuscript and presentation will demonstrate the utility this set of practical applications that translate raw data into useful information.

A globally integrated climate policy for Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernstein, S.; Brunnee, J.; Duff, D.G.; Green, A.J.

2008-01-01

This book explored policy ideas and options from various perspectives, including science, law, political science, economics and sociology. The costs, opportunities and imperatives to participate in international diplomatic initiatives were considered along with the opportunities of regional global carbon markets. Canada's current policy on climate change negotiations have been focused on domestic regulation and incentives for technological responses and the setting of a domestic carbon price. The sense of urgency about global warming was discussed and the need for action to respond to the threat of global climate change was emphasized. The book also reviewed Canada's role in international climate policies and presented parameters and imperatives for global regime building in Canada. Domestic policy tools were also reviewed along with policy obstacles and opportunities. refs., tabs., figs.

Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Changnon, S.A.

1992-01-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

The Ecological consequences of global climate change

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Woodward, F. I

1992-01-01

... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

The tundra - a threat to global climate?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roejle Christensen, T.

1997-01-01

The tundra biome has an important direct influence on the global climate through its exchange of radiatively active 'greenhouse gases', carbon dioxide and methane. A number of suggestions have been raised as to how a changing climate may alter the natural state of this exchange causing significant feedback effects in a changing climate. This paper provides a brief discussion of three different issues relating to the interaction between tundra and climate. It is concluded that release of methane hydrates, permafrost degradation and major biome changes are processes which in the long term may have important effects on further development of the global climate. (au) 32 refs

GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL:A COMPREHENSIVE TOOL IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dharmaveer Singh

2015-01-01

Full Text Available There is growing concern, how and to what extent future changes in climate will affect human society and natural environments. Continuous emissions of Green House Gasses (GHGs at or above current rates will cause further warming. This, in turn, may modify global climate system during 21st century that very likely would have larger impacts than those observed during 20th century. At present, Global Climate Models (GCMs are only the most reliable tools available for studying behaviour of the climate system. This paper presents a comprehensive review of GCMs including their development and applications in climate change impacts studies. Following a discussion of the limitations of GCMs at regional and local scales, different approaches of downscaling are discussed in detail.

A Look at Global Climate Change Through Papal Encyclicals

Science.gov (United States)

Gutry-Korycka, Małgorzata

2017-12-01

The aim of this article is a comprehensive review of Papal Encyclicals in the context of global environmental and climatic change, against the backdrop of the activity of multinational institutions. The Encyclicals look to the future in teaching the faithful, in a manner which indicates that they are part of a goal-oriented policy, both in terms of scientific research, and concrete economic, social, and geopolitical activity. Attention has also been paid to the relationship between the activity of humankind, and global environmental change, particularly of the biotic and climatic variety. If this aggressive anthropogenic activity cannot be deemed responsible for initiating global warming, it may certainly be seen to have "encouraged" it. The impulses behind sustainable development, as well as the instruments of its implementation, and the inspiration behind the idea, have also been discussed. The achievement of this goal, necessitating the balancing of anthropological aspirations and the long-term security of the environment are also referenced in the Encyclicals.

The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices.

Science.gov (United States)

Grillakis, Manolis G; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G; Tsanis, Ioannis K

2016-08-01

Climate and weather patterns are an essential resource for outdoor tourism activities. The projected changes in climate and weather patterns are expected to affect the future state of tourism. The present study aims to quantify the positive or negative effect of a 2 °C global warming on summertime climate comfort in the sense of exercising activities that involve light body activity. The well-established Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) and three variants of the widely used Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) were analyzed. Additionally, a new index based on TCI and CIT was tested and compared against the precious indices. Past and future climate data of five high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) from different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Euro-CORDEX) for a +2 °C period were used. The results indicate improvement in the climate comfort for the majority of European areas for the May to October period. For the June to August period, central and northern European areas are projected to improve, while marginal improvement is found for Mediterranean countries. Furthermore, in specific cases of adjacent Mediterranean areas such as the southern Iberian Peninsula, the June to August climate favorability is projected to reduce as a result of the increase to daytime temperature. The use of a set of different indices and different RCMs and RCPs samples a large fraction of the uncertainty that is crucial for providing robust regional impact information due to climate change. The analysis revealed the similarities and the differences in the magnitude of change across the different indices. Moreover, discrepancies were found in the results of different concentration pathways to the +2 °C global warming, with the RCP8.5 projecting more significant changes for some of the analyzed indices. The estimation of the TCI using different timescale climate data did not change the

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tucker Compton J

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Results Sea surface temperatures (SSTs in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

Scientist's Perceptions of Uncertainty During Discussions of Global Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Romanello, S.; Fortner, R.; Dervin, B.

2003-04-01

This research examines the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists during discussions of global climate change. In particular, it explores whether the disagreements between natural and social scientists are related to the ontological, epistemological, or methodological nature of the uncertainty of global climate change during these discussions. A purposeful sample of 30 natural and social scientists recognized as experts in global climate change by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and National Academies Committee on Global Change were interviewed to elicit their perceptions of disagreements during their three most troublesome discussions on global climate change. A mixed-method (qualitative plus quantitative research) approach with three independent variables was used to explore nature of uncertainty as a mediating variable in the relationships between academic training, level of sureness, level of knowledge, and position on global climate change, and the nature of disagreements and bridging strategies of natural and social scientists (Patton, 1997; Frechtling et al., 1997). This dissertation posits that it is the differences in the nature of uncertainty communicated by natural and social scientists and not sureness, knowledge, and position on global climate change that causes disagreements between the groups. By describing the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists and illuminating bridging techniques scientists use during these disagreements, it is hoped that information collected from this research will create a better dialogue between the scientists studying global climate change by providing communication strategies which will allow those versed in one particular area to speak to non-experts whether they be other scientists, media officials, or the public. These tangible strategies can then be used by government agencies to create better communications and education plans, which can

Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

Science.gov (United States)

Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2012-12-01

Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

Science.gov (United States)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

OpenAIRE

Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin

2016-01-01

This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...

Strategic Global Climate Command?

Science.gov (United States)

Long, J. C. S.

2016-12-01

Researchers have been exploring geoengineering because Anthropogenic GHG emissions could drive the globe towards unihabitability for people, wildlife and vegetation. Potential global deployment of these technologies is inherently strategic. For example, solar radiation management to reflect more sunlight might be strategically useful during a period of time where the population completes an effort to cease emissions and carbon removal technologies might then be strategically deployed to move the atmospheric concentrations back to a safer level. Consequently, deployment of these global technologies requires the ability to think and act strategically on the part of the planet's governments. Such capacity most definitely does not exist today but it behooves scientists and engineers to be involved in thinking through how global command might develop because the way they do the research could support the development of a capacity to deploy intervention rationally -- or irrationally. Internationalizing research would get countries used to working together. Organizing the research in a step-wise manner where at each step scientists become skilled at explaining what they have learned, the quality of the information they have, what they don't know and what more they can do to reduce or handle uncertainty, etc. Such a process can increase societal confidence in being able to make wise decisions about deployment. Global capacity will also be enhanced if the sceintific establishment reinvents misssion driven research so that the programs will identify the systemic issues invovled in any proposed technology and systematically address them with research while still encouraging individual creativity. Geoengineering will diverge from climate science in that geoengineering research needs to design interventions for some publically desirable goal and investigates whether a proposed intervention will acheive desired outcomes. The effort must be a systems-engineering design problem

A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

1994-01-01

A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

Drought forecasting in Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Weinan; Wang, Yixuan; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping; Smith, Ronald J.

2017-11-01

Drought is regarded as one of the most severe natural disasters globally. This is especially the case in Tianjin City, Northern China, where drought can affect economic development and people's livelihoods. Drought forecasting, the basis of drought management, is an important mitigation strategy. In this paper, we evolve a probabilistic forecasting model, which forecasts transition probabilities from a current Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value to a future SPI class, based on conditional distribution of multivariate normal distribution to involve two large-scale climatic indices at the same time, and apply the forecasting model to 26 rain gauges in the Luanhe River basin in North China. The establishment of the model and the derivation of the SPI are based on the hypothesis of aggregated monthly precipitation that is normally distributed. Pearson correlation and Shapiro-Wilk normality tests are used to select appropriate SPI time scale and large-scale climatic indices. Findings indicated that longer-term aggregated monthly precipitation, in general, was more likely to be considered normally distributed and forecasting models should be applied to each gauge, respectively, rather than to the whole basin. Taking Liying Gauge as an example, we illustrate the impact of the SPI time scale and lead time on transition probabilities. Then, the controlled climatic indices of every gauge are selected by Pearson correlation test and the multivariate normality of SPI, corresponding climatic indices for current month and SPI 1, 2, and 3 months later are demonstrated using Shapiro-Wilk normality test. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns on transition probabilities. Finally, we use a score method to evaluate and compare the performance of the three forecasting models and compare them with two traditional models which forecast transition probabilities from a current to a future SPI class. The results show that the

Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majumdar, S.K.

1992-01-01

This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

The dairy cow and global climate changes

OpenAIRE

Flávio Baccari Jr

2015-01-01

 High producing dairy cows are more sensitive to heat stress due mainly to their higher resting metabolic rate as compared to low producing and dry cows. Their responses to increasing levels of the temperature-humidity and the black globe-humidity indices are discussed as well as some aspects of heat tolerance as related to body temperature increase and milk production decrease. Some mitigation and adaptation practices are recommended to face the challenges of global climate changes.

Global climate change and California's water resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaux, H.J. Jr.

1991-01-01

This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

Maize production in terms of global climate changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bekavac Goran

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Climate changes and expected variability of climatic parameters represent a serious concern of the 21st century agriculture. At the global level, the further rise in temperature, changed quantity and distribution of precipitation, increased variability of climate parameters and the occurrence of extreme climate events are expected. In order to avoid, or at least reduce the negative effects of global climate change, several adaptation strategies are proposed. Adjustment of production technology and breeding for tolerance to changed environment are proposed as two most important adaptation measures.

On coupling global biome models with climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ella Kokotsis

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

Climate indices of Iran under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

alireza kochaki

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation

OpenAIRE

Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Baker, Paul A.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brewer, Simon; Brook, Ed; Carlson, Anders E.; Cheng, Hai; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Liu, Zhengyu; Marchitto, Thomas M.; Mix, Alan C.; Morrill, Carrie; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Pahnke, Katharina

2012-01-01

Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth’s climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to th...

Clean coal technologies and global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, R.S.

1993-01-01

The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities

Indicators of climate change in Idaho: An assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change is well documented at the global scale, but local and regional changes are not as well understood. Finer, local-to-regional scale information is needed for creating specific, place-based planning and adaption efforts. Here we detail the development of an indicator-focused climate chan...

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

2000-06-01

A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

Global vs climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

1991-01-01

The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karl, T.R.

1995-12-01

Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

Indications of climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-04-01

The earth's annual mean global temperature increased by around 0,6 C during the 20 century, with wide regional differences. Even if solar activity has played some part in the mean temperature rise and some greenhouse gases are present naturally in the atmosphere, enhancing of the greenhouse effect due to the human activities is responsible for a large and increasing part of the observed warming. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms the future increase under all scenarios. Depending on the efforts made by mankind to limit greenhouse gases emissions, the global mean temperature in 2100 could be between 1,4 and 5,8 C higher than in 2000. (A.L.B.)

Global but fair. Controvert the climatic change, allow development; Global aber gerecht. Klimawandel bekaempfen, Entwicklung ermoeglichen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

The book includes the following chapters: global but fair: climate compatible development for everybody; climatic change consequences und vulnerabilities; ethic dimension: fairness in the context of climatic change and poverty; options and challenges for emissions abatement; options for the adaptation to the climatic change; global deal for climate and development policy; convert the climatic change, allow development: ten political messages.

Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

2006-01-01

The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Global Guidance On LCIA Indicators: Impacts Of Particulate Matter And Of Land Use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jolliet, Olivier; Fantke, Peter; McKone, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

Improving life cycle impact assessment models is crucial. The flagship project of the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative provides global guidance and consensus on environmental LCIA indicators for climate change, particulate matter impacts, land use impact on biodiversity, water scarcity and water ...

International business and global climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

2008-01-01

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and

Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Walsh, John E.; Chapman, William L.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

2008-01-01

The performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-Arctic and Northern Hemisphere extratropical domains. Root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958...... to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and the broader Arctic....... of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. There is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the Arctic, as well as larger increases of Arctic...

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Hagemann

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

On coupling global biome models with climate models

OpenAIRE

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

Global Governance of Climate Change The Paris Agreement as a New Component of the UN Climate Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David A. Wirth

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Paris Agreement, which was adopted in December 2015 and entered into force less than a year later, is the newest instrument to be adopted in the United Nations-sponsored global climate regime. The Paris Agreement takes its place under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change and next to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and 2012 Doha Amendment. After describing the historical evolution of the UN climate regime employing the tools of international law, this Article explores the structural, institutional, and legal relationships between the new Paris Agreement and the prior development and content of UN-sponsored efforts on climate protection under the auspices of the 1992 Framework Convention. The need for such an analysis is particularly urgent because the new instrument was purposely not identified as a “protocol,” and its relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol is unclear. This Article consequently traces the development of the universal, UN-anchored climate regime from its origins in the 1990s to the present moment, with particular attention to the structural relationship among its various components and historical junctures. The Article then examines the text and structure of the Paris Agreement, along with its context, against this background. The significance of the Agreement’s status as an instrument other than a “protocol,” and its uncertain textual and institutional relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol, receive particular scrutiny. The Article concludes that the Paris Agreement, from a structural and institutional point of view, represents both a break with the past designed to initiate a new, globally-inclusive multilateral approach to climate protection, but also contains indications of continuity with prior questions of global climate policy.

A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hannah, Lee

2010-02-01

Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

2009-01-01

This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Yackle, Terri A

2007-01-01

.... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

Science.gov (United States)

Lúcio, F.

2012-04-01

Climate information at global, regional and national levels and in timeframes ranging from the past, present and future climate is fundamental for planning, sustainable development and to help organizations, countries and individuals adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate variability and change. Based on this recognition, in 2009, the Heads of States and Governments, Ministers and Heads of Delegation representing more than 150 countries, 34 United Nations Organizations and 36 Governmental and non-Governmental international organizations, and more than 2500 experts present at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC - 3) unanimously agreed to develop the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. They requested that a taskforce of high-level independent advisors be appointed to prepare a report, including recommendations on the proposed elements of the Framework and the next steps for its implementation. The high-level taskforce produced a report which was endorsed by the Sixteeth World Meteorological Congress XVI in May 2011. A process for the development of the implementation plan and the governance structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is well under way being led by the World Meteorological Organization within the UN system. This process involves consultations that engage a broad range of stakeholders including governments, UN and international agencies, regional organizations and specific communities of practitioners. These consultations are being conducted to facilitate discussions of key issues related to the production, availability, delivery and application of climate services in the four priority sectors of the framework (agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction) so that the implementation plan of the Framework is a true reflection of the aspirations of stakeholders. The GFCS is envisaged as

Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Tierney, Benjamin P.

2013-01-01

The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.

Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junsheng Li

Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

2015-01-01

The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

Science.gov (United States)

Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

2016-04-01

potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, relocations (to airports) efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather stations. Thus a large global parallel dataset is highly desirable as it allows for the study of systematic biases in the global record. We are interested in data from all climate variables at all time scales; from annual to sub-daily. High-resolution data is important for understanding the physical causes for the differences between the parallel measurements. For the same reason, we are also interested in other climate variables measured at the same station. For example, in case of parallel air temperature measurements, the influencing factors are expected to be global radiation, wind, humidity and cloud cover; in case of parallel precipitation measurements, wind and wet-bulb temperature are potentially important. Metadata that describe the parallel measurements is as important as the data itself and will be collected as well. For example, the types of the instruments, their siting, height, maintenance, etc. Because they are widely used to study moderate extremes, we will compute the indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In case the daily data cannot be shared, we would appreciate contributions containing these indices from parallel measurements. For more information: http://tinyurl.com/ISTI-Parallel

Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

2011-10-15

During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

1991-01-01

The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a Mini Nuclear Winter'' as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

1991-12-31

The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a ``Mini Nuclear Winter`` as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

Climate change indicators in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published this report, Climate Change Indicators in the United States, to help readers interpret a set of important indicators to better understand climate change. The report presents 24 indicators, ...

Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.

1992-01-01

The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dubrovský, Martin; Trnka, M.; Holman, I. P.; Svobodová, E.; Harrison, P. A.

2015-01-01

Roč. 128, 3-4 (2015), s. 169-186 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : global Climate Model * ensemble of models * climate change * climate change scenarios * climate change impact indices * Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.344, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1297-7

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

Acidic deposition and global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikolaidis, N.P.; Ecsedy, C.; Olem, H.; Nikolaidis, V.S.

1990-01-01

A literature is presented which examines the research published on understanding ecosystem acidification and the effects of acidic deposition on freshwaters. Topics of discussion include the following: acidic deposition; regional assessments; atmospheric deposition and transport; aquatic effects; mathematical modeling; liming acidic waters; global climate change; atmospheric changes; climate feedbacks; and aquatic effects

Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Riedy

2011-12-01

Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

2009-12-01

Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

OpenAIRE

Tucker Compton J; Small Jennifer; Chretien Jean-Paul; Anyamba Assaf; Linthicum Kenneth J

2006-01-01

Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hem...

Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bond, Tami C

2007-01-01

'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO 2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored

Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

OpenAIRE

Deryng, Delphine

2014-01-01

As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

2015-04-01

Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

Science.gov (United States)

Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

2011-06-01

Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

Global climate change has already begun

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinclair, J.

1991-01-01

Global warning and climate change is now evident around the planet. Six of the eight warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s, while 1990 was the hottest year on record. The global imbalances seem set to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and restoration of the earth's forests is begun

Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

1994-05-01

This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

Asia's changing role in global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Siddiqi, Toufiq A

2008-10-01

Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

2014-01-01

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview

OpenAIRE

Richard S.J. Tol

2012-01-01

A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy, but would imply an overhaul of other public policy. Catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy...

The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fuessler, J S; Gassmann, F [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

1999-08-01

A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

Sources of global climate data and visualization portals

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, David C.

2014-01-01

Climate is integral to the geophysical foundation upon which ecosystems are structured. Knowledge about mechanistic linkages between the geophysical and biological environments is essential for understanding how global warming may reshape contemporary ecosystems and ecosystem services. Numerous global data sources spanning several decades are available that document key geophysical metrics such as temperature and precipitation, and metrics of primary biological production such as vegetation phenology and ocean phytoplankton. This paper provides an internet directory to portals for visualizing or servers for downloading many of the more commonly used global datasets, as well as a description of how to write simple computer code to efficiently retrieve these data. The data are broadly useful for quantifying relationships between climate, habitat availability, and lower-trophic-level habitat quality - especially in Arctic regions where strong seasonality is accompanied by intrinsically high year-to-year variability. If defensible linkages between the geophysical (climate) and the biological environment can be established, general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate conditions can be used to infer future biological responses. Robustness of this approach is, however, complicated by the number of direct, indirect, or interacting linkages involved. For example, response of a predator species to climate change will be influenced by the responses of its prey and competitors, and so forth throughout a trophic web. The complexities of ecological systems warrant sensible and parsimonious approaches for assessing and establishing the role of natural climate variability in order to substantiate inferences about the potential effects of global warming.

Business responses to global climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pinkse, J.M.

2006-04-27

This research project studies the evolution and determinants of corporate climate strategies of multinationals. Since most companies are affected by global climate change in a direct or indirect way, a range of strategies are emerging to mitigate climate change. These strategies are not only of a political nature (e.g. influencing government institutions), but also of a competitive nature. The aim is to introduce a typology of corporate climate strategies, paying specific attention to the market components related to climate change. More and more, multinationals' actions in reducing greenhouse gas emissions are aimed at achieving a sustained competitive advantage in addition to compliance with government regulation. What factors determine these market strategies for climate change will be explored in a theoretical framework based on institutional theory and the resource-based view of the firm.

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

Science.gov (United States)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Letcher, Trevor M.

2009-01-01

Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

2012-09-15

There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

2011-01-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

Global climate-friendly trade : Canada's chance to clean up

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldfarb, D.

2010-03-01

This paper discussed the global trade and investment in climate-friendly technologies, Canada's current position in this market, and the policy changes that are necessary for Canadian businesses to gain a stronger foothold in this sector. The global market for climate-friendly technologies is growing rapidly, but Canadian businesses have generally failed to exploit opportunities to export climate-friendly technologies and have generally lagged other countries in adopting such technologies developed elsewhere. Although Canadian businesses generally underperform in this sector, Canada does have notable strengths in 13 identified areas, including waste management technologies, energy technologies, and in parts of the value chains associated with wind and solar power. Targeting these areas of relative strength for further development could position Canada as a global leader in some climate-friendly technologies. For this to happen, Canadian governments need to establish clear policies, invest in research and development, and remove domestic and international barriers to the development and trade in climate-friendly technologies. 30 refs., 5 tabs., 5 figs.

Policy options for stabilizing global climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lashof, D.A.; Tirpak, D.A.

1990-12-01

This report to congress by the US EPA explains the greenhouse effect and its influence on global climate. It outlines the trends in the greenhouse gases - their concentration history, distribution, sources and sinks and chemical and radiative properties. Climate change processes are discussed including climate feedbacks. Human activities affecting trace gases and climate are explained, followed by a chapter on the technical options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions which looks at energy services, energy supply, industry, forestry and agriculture. The future is considered, and the final chapters are concerned with policy options and international cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 934 refs., 102 figs., 84 tabs

Climate indicators for Italy: calculation and dissemination

Science.gov (United States)

Desiato, F.; Fioravanti, G.; Fraschetti, P.; Perconti, W.; Toreti, A.

2011-05-01

In Italy, meteorological data necessary and useful for climate studies are collected, processed and archived by a wide range of national and regional institutions. As a result, the density of the stations, the length and frequency of the observations, the quality control procedures and the database structure vary from one dataset to another. In order to maximize the use of those data for climate knowledge and climate change assessments, a computerized system for the collection, quality control, calculation, regular update and rapid dissemination of climate indicators was developed. The products publicly available through a dedicated web site are described, as well as an example of climate trends estimates over Italy, based on the application of statistical models on climate indicators from quality-checked and homogenised time series.

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM) - Part 2: Quality control, time-series indices and homogeneity assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Gudmundsson, Lukas; Do, Hong Xuan; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-04-01

This is Part 2 of a two-paper series presenting the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM), which is a collection of daily streamflow observations at more than 30 000 stations around the world. While Part 1 (Do et al., 2018a) describes the data collection process as well as the generation of auxiliary catchment data (e.g. catchment boundary, land cover, mean climate), Part 2 introduces a set of quality controlled time-series indices representing (i) the water balance, (ii) the seasonal cycle, (iii) low flows and (iv) floods. To this end we first consider the quality of individual daily records using a combination of quality flags from data providers and automated screening methods. Subsequently, streamflow time-series indices are computed for yearly, seasonal and monthly resolution. The paper provides a generalized assessment of the homogeneity of all generated streamflow time-series indices, which can be used to select time series that are suitable for a specific task. The newly generated global set of streamflow time-series indices is made freely available with an digital object identifier at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887470" target="_blank">https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887470 and is expected to foster global freshwater research, by acting as a ground truth for model validation or as a basis for assessing the role of human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle. It is hoped that a renewed interest in streamflow data at the global scale will foster efforts in the systematic assessment of data quality and provide momentum to overcome administrative barriers that lead to inconsistencies in global collections of relevant hydrological observations.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Karl, T. R.

2009-12-01

This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

Climate Science's Globally Distributed Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, D. N.

2016-12-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is primarily funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Science (the Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] Climate Data Informatics Program and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research Next Generation Network for Science Program), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF), the European Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System Modeling (IS-ENES), and the Australian National University (ANU). Support also comes from other U.S. federal and international agencies. The federation works across multiple worldwide data centers and spans seven international network organizations to provide users with the ability to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a series of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered and united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports), multiple model intercomparison projects (MIPs; endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme [WCRP]), and the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME; ESGF is included in the overarching ACME workflow process to store model output). ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs the global climate science community. Data served by ESGF includes not only model output but also observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalysis, and generated images.

CCME Climate Change Indicators -- Workshop Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

In an effort to give Canadians a better understanding of the climate change issue, in 1999 the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) established a Project Working Group to identify and assemble a set of climate change indicators that is scientifically valid, useful and meaningful to the public. To ensure the widest possible participation of experts from all parts of the country the Project Working Group convened a two-day workshop in Toronto to take place on the 6th and 7th of November 2000. The outcome of the workshop, summarized in this report, resulted in a 'Made in Canada' framework of indicators for climate change impacts, divided into five categories: physical environment, personal health and safety, jobs and economic well-being, social and community well-being, and eco-system health. The report contains highlights of the discussions. There are seven appendices containing, respectively, a series of pre-workshop suggestions for indicators (Appendix A), the workshop agenda and backgrounder (Appendix B), a list of participants (Appendix C), presentation slides on the Canada country study (Appendix D), existing and proposed climate change indicators (Appendix E), presentation slides on communication issues (Appendix F), and notes summarizing small group discussions, including assessment of the level of interest demonstrated and opinions expressed by group members about the utility and value of each of the proposed indicators (Appendix G)

Global climate feedbacks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manowitz, B.

1990-10-01

The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, K.H.

2006-01-01

This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main...... question asked is to what extent external interventions have formed part of a country-driven approach in Uganda. The conflicting national and global priorities concerning the need for adaptation to the impacts of climate change versus the need for global mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are explored...... first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited...

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-01-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global Snow & Ice

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Global biomass burning. Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, J.S.

1991-01-01

Biomass burning is a significant source of atmospheric gases and, as such, may contribute to global climate changes. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The chapters in this volume include the following topics: remote sensing of biomass burning from space;geographical distribution of burning; combustion products of burning in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems; burning as a global source of atmospheric gases and particulates; impacts of biomass burning gases and particulates on global climate; and the role of biomass burning on biodiversity and past global extinctions. A total of 1428 references are cited for the 63 chapters. Individual chapters are indexed separately for the data bases

Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

2008-06-15

The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

Evaluation of CORDEX-Arctic daily precipitation and temperature-based climate indices over Canadian Arctic land areas

Science.gov (United States)

Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Mailhot, Alain; Brown, Ross; Chaumont, Diane

2018-03-01

This study focuses on the evaluation of daily precipitation and temperature climate indices and extremes simulated by an ensemble of 12 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the ARCTIC-CORDEX experiment with surface observations in the Canadian Arctic from the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Dataset. Five global reanalyses products (ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA, CFSR and GMFD) are also included in the evaluation to assess their potential for RCM evaluation in data sparse regions. The study evaluated the means and annual anomaly distributions of indices over the 1980-2004 dataset overlap period. The results showed that RCM and reanalysis performance varied with the climate variables being evaluated. Most RCMs and reanalyses were able to simulate well climate indices related to mean air temperature and hot extremes over most of the Canadian Arctic, with the exception of the Yukon region where models displayed the largest biases related to topographic effects. Overall performance was generally poor for indices related to cold extremes. Likewise, only a few RCM simulations and reanalyses were able to provide realistic simulations of precipitation extreme indicators. The multi-reanalysis ensemble provided superior results to individual datasets for climate indicators related to mean air temperature and hot extremes, but not for other indicators. These results support the use of reanalyses as reference datasets for the evaluation of RCM mean air temperature and hot extremes over northern Canada, but not for cold extremes and precipitation indices.

Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

2017-12-01

Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

Data Descriptor: TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

Science.gov (United States)

John T. Abatzoglou; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks; Katherine C. Hegewisch

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958–2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from...

Global Energy Transitions and the Challenge of Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riahi, K.

2008-01-01

Global emissions of greenhouse-gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities since pre-industrial times. This increase in emissions has lead to unequivocal global warming, which is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Reducing the risk of irreversible climate impacts requires thus the mitigation of global GHG emissions aiming at the long-term stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. Achieving this goal translates into the need of reducing emissions to virtually zero over long time-frames. Yet international agreement on a long-term climate policy target remains a distant prospect, due to both scientific uncertainty and political disagreement on the appropriate balance between mitigation costs and reduced risks of dangerous impacts. At the same time, growing emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase the amount of climate change we are committed to over the long term. Over the next few decades, these growing emissions may make some potentially desirable long term goals unattainable. Recent analysis conducted at IIASA indicates the need of major energy transitions over the next few decades. For example, staying below the target suggested by the European Union of 2 C warming (with just a 50% likelihood) will require the massive deployment of zero-carbon energy by 2050, and a tippling of the contribution of zero-carbon energy globally to more than 60% by that time. Although there are large uncertainties with respect to the deployment of individual future technologies, there is strong evidence that no single mitigation measure alone would be sufficient for achieving the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels. A wide portfolio of technologies across all GHG-intensive sectors is needed for cost-effective emissions reductions. The bulk of these emissions reductions would need to come from the energy sector, with

The global climate change and its effect on power generation in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, Iftekhar; Alam, Firoz; Alam, Quamrul

2013-01-01

Frequent and intense natural calamities, sea level rises and salinity have been causing adverse impacts on economic, environmental and social aspects of hundreds of millions people across the world. Although a series of studies was undertaken on social and environment impacts, very little information is available on power generation affected by climate change. The power generation in developing countries, especially Bangladesh, whose existence is severely threatened by the rise of sea levels, salinity, the ambient temperature, drought and flood, is not well studied and reported. Therefore, the primary objective of this study was to identify the risks imposed by global climate change on existing and projected power generation in Bangladesh. The climate effect parameters and their impacts on power generation capacity are studied and analysed. The findings indicate that all existing and future power plants and their generation across the country will be affected by global climate change. - Highlights: • Analysed the future climate change impact on power generation in Bangladesh. • Projected future power generation in Bangladesh up to 2100. • Power plant in coastal areas will experience threat of inundation and salinity. • Northwest region power generation in Bangladesh will face more drought threat. • Power generation in middle region of Bangladesh will be in high risk of flood

Trump's Doctrine and Climate Change: New Challenges for Global Governance

OpenAIRE

Contipelli, Ernani

2017-01-01

The present communication aims to discuss the main topics related to Trump’s Doctrine and its effects on the implementation of global governance to fight against Climate Change. To present the argument, first, we will analyze the relation between global governance and climate change, followed by a general view of the climate change by some Republican Party members, and finally, the current policies already put in place by President Trump

An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

1995-01-01

ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM – Part 2: Quality control, time-series indices and homogeneity assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Gudmundsson

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This is Part 2 of a two-paper series presenting the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM, which is a collection of daily streamflow observations at more than 30 000 stations around the world. While Part 1 (Do et al., 2018a describes the data collection process as well as the generation of auxiliary catchment data (e.g. catchment boundary, land cover, mean climate, Part 2 introduces a set of quality controlled time-series indices representing (i the water balance, (ii the seasonal cycle, (iii low flows and (iv floods. To this end we first consider the quality of individual daily records using a combination of quality flags from data providers and automated screening methods. Subsequently, streamflow time-series indices are computed for yearly, seasonal and monthly resolution. The paper provides a generalized assessment of the homogeneity of all generated streamflow time-series indices, which can be used to select time series that are suitable for a specific task. The newly generated global set of streamflow time-series indices is made freely available with an digital object identifier at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887470 and is expected to foster global freshwater research, by acting as a ground truth for model validation or as a basis for assessing the role of human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle. It is hoped that a renewed interest in streamflow data at the global scale will foster efforts in the systematic assessment of data quality and provide momentum to overcome administrative barriers that lead to inconsistencies in global collections of relevant hydrological observations.

Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

De Saedeleer, Bernard

2016-01-27

Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

2004-01-01

This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

Global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

2002-01-01

In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

Inland Water Temperature: An Ideal Indicator for the National Climate Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Hook, S. J.; Lenters, J. D.; O'Reilly, C.; Healey, N. C.

2014-12-01

NASA is a significant contributor to the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), which is a central component of the 2012-2022 U.S. Global Change Research Program Strategic Plan. The NCA has identified the need for indicators that provide a clear, concise way of communicating to NCA audiences about not only the status and trends of physical drivers of the climate system, but also the ecological and socioeconomic impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses to those drivers. We are using thermal infrared satellite data in conjunction with in situ measurements to produce water temperatures for all the large inland water bodies in North America for potential use as an indicator for the NCA. Recent studies have revealed significant warming of inland waters throughout the world. The observed rate of warming is - in many cases - greater than that of the ambient air temperature. These rapid, unprecedented changes in inland water temperatures have profound implications for lake hydrodynamics, productivity, and biotic communities. Scientists are just beginning to understand the global extent, regional patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological consequences of lake warming. As part of our earlier studies we have collected thermal infrared satellite data from those satellite sensors that provide long-term and frequent spaceborne thermal infrared measurements of inland waters including ATSR, AVHRR, and MODIS and used these to examine trends in water surface temperature for approximately 100 of the largest inland water bodies in the world. We are now extending this work to generate temperature time-series of all North American inland water bodies that are sufficiently large to be studied using 1km resolution satellite data for the last 3 decades. These data are then being related to changes in the surface air temperature and compared with regional trends in water surface temperature derived from CMIP5/IPCC model simulations/projections to better predict future temperature changes

An evaluation of temperature and precipitation from global and regional climate models over Scandinavia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

Precipitation and temperature from global (GCMs) and regional (RCMs) climate models are compared with reanalysis and observations over Scandinavia. Also projections for the next 50-100 years are considered. The climate development is visualised as moving averages (1920-2100). Box plots are used to illuminate how well GCM runs capture the observed seasonal cycle. Maps show the seasonal difference between results from control runs (RCM) and observations (E-OBS dataset) for the reference period 1981-2000. Plots illustrate the RCM-representation of seasonal temperature and precipitations cycle for five locations in Norway and Sweden: Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, Tromsoe and Oestersund. The results show rather large differences between control runs and observations, demonstrating the need for bias correction of results from climate models. To get an indicator of which GC M-RCM-combination give the best representation of present climate over Scandinavia, a model ranking is provided. The performance measure used is the root-mean-square deviation of mean monthly and seasonal values. The data is compared both in an area-weighted spatial average of the whole domain as well as for the selected locations. The results indicate that the regional models RACMO2 and RCA show the smallest deviations from observed climate. Among the top ranking GCM-RCM combinations, most were driven by the global model ECHAM5 and some by a version of HadCM3. These two GCMs are also present among the worst performing GCM-RCM combinations indicating that selection of RCMs is crucial. (Author)

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

2015-11-01

Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

2018-05-27

Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, M. W.

2015-12-01

The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

Science.gov (United States)

Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

2015-01-01

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15 N: 14 N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15 N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015

OpenAIRE

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958–2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and sol...

Costs of global climate protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krause, F.

1992-01-01

This paper discusses the cost implications of the air pollution abatement recommendations contained in a recently published IPSEP (International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths) study on the feasibility of the abatement of carbon dioxide emissions deemed significantly responsible for the greenhouse effect and its associated negative impacts on this planet's climatic equilibrium. The air pollution abatement strategies are to be enforced in five highly industrialized European countries - Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Holland. The study's overall results indicate the feasibility of 50% reductions in carbon dioxide emissions within the next 30 years even with a more than doubling of GNP's and a contemporaneous phase-out of nuclear power production, and all this taking place in a cost effective way and with increased employment. In addition, IPSEP's report states that the implementation of effective program management strategies would bolster Western Europe's competitiveness on a global scale

Northern peatlands in global climatic change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

1996-12-31

Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

2017-05-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Global meta-analysis of leaf area index in wetlands indicates uncertainties in understanding of their ecosystem function

Science.gov (United States)

Dronova, I.; Taddeo, S.; Foster, K.

2017-12-01

Projecting ecosystem responses to global change relies on the accurate understanding of properties governing their functions in different environments. An important variable in models of ecosystem function is canopy leaf area index (LAI; leaf area per unit ground area) declared as one of the Essential Climate Variables in the Global Climate Observing System and extensively measured in terrestrial landscapes. However, wetlands have been largely under-represented in these efforts, which globally limits understanding of their contribution to carbon sequestration, climate regulation and resilience to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. This study provides a global synthesis of >350 wetland-specific LAI observations from 182 studies and compares LAI among wetland ecosystem and vegetation types, biomes and measurement approaches. Results indicate that most wetland types and even individual locations show a substantial local dispersion of LAI values (average coefficient of variation 65%) due to heterogeneity of environmental properties and vegetation composition. Such variation indicates that mean LAI values may not sufficiently represent complex wetland environments, and the use of this index in ecosystem function models needs to incorporate within-site variation in canopy properties. Mean LAI did not significantly differ between direct and indirect measurement methods on a pooled global sample; however, within some of the specific biomes and wetland types significant contrasts between these approaches were detected. These contrasts highlight unique aspects of wetland vegetation physiology and canopy structure affecting measurement principles that need to be considered in generalizing canopy properties in ecosystem models. Finally, efforts to assess wetland LAI using remote sensing strongly indicate the promise of this technology for cost-effective regional-scale modeling of canopy properties similar to terrestrial systems. However, such efforts urgently require more

Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

2012-01-01

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

1992-05-01

This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

2009-04-01

Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

A quantitative analysis of the causes of the global climate change research distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pasgaard, Maya; Strange, Niels

2013-01-01

investigates whether the need for knowledge on climate changes in the most vulnerable regions of the world is met by the supply of knowledge measured by scientific research publications from the last decade. A quantitative analysis of more than 15,000 scientific publications from 197 countries investigates...... the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change...... the distribution of climate change research and the potential causes of this distribution. More than 13 explanatory variables representing vulnerability, geographical, demographical, economical and institutional indicators are included in the analysis. The results show that the supply of climate change knowledge...

Climate changes instead of global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radovanović Milan M.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

2002-01-01

Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

2010-01-01

While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

Global climate change impacts in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

2009-06-01

This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

Climate change and global warming potentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vate, J.F. van de

1996-01-01

Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

CERN Multimedia

2002-01-01

Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

Development directions of the global climate protection law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richter, Katharina

2014-01-01

The contribution on development directions of the global climate protection law covers the origination process of the Kyoto protocol, the precise form of the Kyoto protocol, the climate protection regime afterwards: Montreal 2005 - implementation-improvement-innovation, Nairobi 2006 - climatic change very close, Bali 2007 - roadmap, Posen 2008 - intermediate step, Copenhagen 2009 - stagnancy, Cancun 2010 - comeback, Durban 2011 - gleam of hope, Doha 2012 - minimum compromise, Warsaw 2013 - hope. The last chapter discusses the fundamental problems and perspectives of the climate protection laws.

Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jutro, P.R.

1991-01-01

Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

2018-01-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

Science.gov (United States)

Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Reliability and usability of tourism climate indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghislain Dubois

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Tourism climate indices (TCI are commonly used to describe the climate conditions suitable for tourism activities, from the planning, investment or daily operations perspectives. A substantial amount of research has been carried out, in particular with respect to new indices formulae adapted to specific tourism products, and parameters and their weighting, taking into account surveys on the stated preferences of tourists, especially in terms of comfort. This paper illustrates another field of research, which seeks to better understand the different sources of uncertainty associated with indices. Indeed, slight differences in formula thresholds, variations in computation methods, and also the use of multimodel ensembles create nuances that affect the ways in which indices projections are usually presented. Firstly, we assess the impact of differences in preference surveys on the definition of indices thresholds, in particular for thermal comfort. Secondly, we compare computation methods for France, showing the need to better specify detailed data sources and their use to ensure the comparability of results. Thirdly, using multimodel ensembles for the Mediterranean basin, we assess the uncertainty inherent in long-term projections, which are used in modelling the economic impact of climate change. This paper argues in favour of a more cautious use of tourism comfort indices, with more consideration given to the robustness of data (validation, debiasing, uncertainty assessment, etc. and users’ needs, from the climate services perspective.

Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

@@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Heinke

2013-10-01

Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Global climate change: US-Japan cooperative leadership for environmental protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gray, J.E.; Fri, R.W.; Ikuta, Toyoaki; Guertin, D.L.; Tomitate, Takao.

1991-01-01

Over the past decade the Atlantic Council of the United States has engaged in continuing dialogue with the Committee for Energy Policy Promotion (Japan), The Institute of Energy Economics (Japan) and the Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (Japan) on a range of energy issues, including environmentally related considerations. Cooperation on environmental issues is the subject of this joint US-Japanese policy paper on global climate change. The Japanese and US participants who prepared this paper agreed on a number of conclusions, principles to guide action, and common recommendations on how best to address global climate change issues. The agreed upon principles include development of strategies in a long-term time frame (50-100 years); aggressive action to increase efficiency or reduce pollution when economically and technologically justified; utilization of market forces to the maximum extent possible; and assistance to developing countries in reducing pollution and increasing energy efficiency. The key recommendations include: The need to strengthen research to better understand global climate change, its implications and appropriate response strategies; The importance of involving as many nations as possible in formulating a framework agreement on global climate change; Recognition that, given economic and technical capabilities, each country should develop its own response strategies; Additional public and private sector efforts to increase the efficient use of resources and the use of alternate, less polluting energy resources when economically justified; Actions to address obstacles to technology cooperation with developing countries; and Increased flow of information to opinion leaders and the general public on global climate change

GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

OpenAIRE

Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

2015-01-01

Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

1992-05-01

This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

NASA/JPL CLIMATE DAY: Middle and High School Students Get the Facts about Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Annie; Callery, Susan; Srinivasan, Margaret

2013-04-01

In 2007, NASA Headquarters requested that Earth Science outreach teams brainstorm new education and public outreach activities that would focus on the topic of global climate change. At the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Annie Richardson, outreach lead for the Ocean Surface Topography missions came up with the idea of a "Climate Day", capitalizing on the popular Earth Day name and events held annually throughout the world. JPL Climate Day would be an education and public outreach event whose objectives are to provide the latest scientific facts about global climate change - including the role the ocean plays in it, the contributions that NASA/JPL satellites and scientists make to the body of knowledge on the topic, and what we as individuals can do to promote global sustainability. The primary goal is that participants get this information in a fun and exciting environment, and walk away feeling empowered and capable of confidently engaging in the global climate debate. In March 2008, JPL and its partners held the first Climate Day event. 950 students from seven school districts heard from five scientists; visited exhibits, and participated in hands-on-activities. Pleased with the outcome, we organized JPL Climate Day 2010 at the Pasadena Convention Center in Pasadena, California, reaching more than 1700 students, teachers, and members of the general public over two days. Taking note of this successful model, NASA funded a multi-center, NASA Climate Day proposal in 2010 to expand Climate Day nation-wide. The NASA Climate Day proposal is a three-pronged project consisting of a cadre of Earth Ambassadors selected from among NASA-affiliated informal educators; a "Climate Day Kit" consisting of climate-related electronic resources available to the Earth Ambassadors; and NASA Climate Day events to be held in Earth Ambassador communities across the United States. NASA/JPL continues to host the original Climate Day event and in 2012 held its 4th event, at the Pasadena

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

2018-01-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

2018-01-17

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

(Un)certainty in climate change impacts on global energy consumption

Science.gov (United States)

van Ruijven, B. J.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to have an influence on the energy sector, especially on energy demand. For many locations, this change in energy demand is a balance between increase of demand for space cooling and a decrease of space heating demand. We perform a large-scale uncertainty analysis to characterize climate change risk on energy consumption as driven by climate and socioeconomic uncertainty. We combine a dynamic econometric model1 with multiple realizations of temperature projections from all 21 CMIP5 models (from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections2) under moderate (RCP4.5) and vigorous (RCP8.5) warming. Global spatial population projections for five SSPs are combined with GDP projections to construct scenarios for future energy demand driven by socioeconomic change. Between the climate models, we find a median global increase in climate-related energy demand of around 24% by 2050 under RCP8.5 with an interquartile range of 18-38%. Most climate models agree on increases in energy demand of more than 25% or 50% in tropical regions, the Southern USA and Southern China (see Figure). With respect to socioeconomic scenarios, we find wide variations between the SSPs for the number of people in low-income countries who are exposed to increases in energy demand. Figure attached: Number of models that agree on total climate-related energy consumption to increase or decrease by more than 0, 10, 25 or 50% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and SSP5 as result of the CMIP5 ensemble of temperature projections. References1. De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate. (FEEM, 2016). 2. Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16, 3309-3314 (2012).

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-04-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

2017-12-01

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

The emergence of global climate law

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan; Farber, Daniel A.; Peeters, Marjan

2016-01-01

As the chapters in this Encyclopedia demonstrate, climate law is a dynamic and multidisciplinary field, implicating many diverse fields of law at all levels from municipal planning through multinational treaties. The outlines of an emerging global law can be discerned, including shared principles

A dissenting view on global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linden, H.R.

1993-01-01

Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

Determining the effect of key climate drivers on global hydropower production

Science.gov (United States)

Galelli, S.; Ng, J. Y.; Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Accounting for about 17% of total global electrical power production, hydropower is arguably the world's main renewable energy source and a key asset to meet Paris climate agreements. A key component of hydropower production is water availability, which depends on both precipitation and multiple drivers of climate variability acting at different spatial and temporal scales. To understand how these drivers impact global hydropower production, we study the relation between four patterns of ocean-atmosphere climate variability (i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and monthly time series of electrical power production for over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs—obtained via simulation with a high-fidelity dam model forced with 20th century climate conditions. Notably significant relationships between electrical power productions and climate variability are found in many climate sensitive regions globally, including North and South America, East Asia, West Africa, and Europe. Coupled interactions from multiple, simultaneous climate drivers are also evaluated. Finally, we highlight the importance of using these climate drivers as an additional source of information within reservoir operating rules where the skillful predictability of inflow exists.

Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix

2018-03-01

During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

Science.gov (United States)

Byers, Edward; Gidden, Matthew; Leclère, David; Balkovic, Juraj; Burek, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Greve, Peter; Grey, David; Havlik, Petr; Hillers, Astrid; Johnson, Nils; Kahil, Taher; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Nakicenovic, Nebjosa; Novak, Robert; Obersteiner, Michael; Pachauri, Shonali; Palazzo, Amanda; Parkinson, Simon; Rao, Narasimha D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide; Willaarts, Barbara; Riahi, Keywan

2018-05-01

Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those ‘vulnerable to poverty’ from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85%–95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91%–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7%–17% at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14%–30% at 2 °C and again to 27%–51% at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world’s poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.

Potential global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

Global imprint of climate change on marine life

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

2013-01-01

Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available ...

Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2016-01-01

We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

Estimating daily climatologies for climate indices derived from climate model data and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Mahlstein, Irina; Spirig, Christoph; Liniger, Mark A; Appenzeller, Christof

2015-01-01

Climate indices help to describe the past, present, and the future climate. They are usually closer related to possible impacts and are therefore more illustrative to users than simple climate means. Indices are often based on daily data series and thresholds. It is shown that the percentile-based thresholds are sensitive to the method of computation, and so are the climatological daily mean and the daily standard deviation, which are used for bias corrections of daily climate model data. Sample size issues of either the observed reference period or the model data lead to uncertainties in these estimations. A large number of past ensemble seasonal forecasts, called hindcasts, is used to explore these sampling uncertainties and to compare two different approaches. Based on a perfect model approach it is shown that a fitting approach can improve substantially the estimates of daily climatologies of percentile-based thresholds over land areas, as well as the mean and the variability. These improvements are relevant for bias removal in long-range forecasts or predictions of climate indices based on percentile thresholds. But also for climate change studies, the method shows potential for use. Key Points More robust estimates of daily climate characteristics Statistical fitting approach Based on a perfect model approach PMID:26042192

Global and regional climate change: new evidences between two IPCC reports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mika, J. [Eszterhazy Karoly College, Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Geography

2011-07-01

The climate of our planet has never been constant, but the recent changes are by two orders of magnitude faster than the natural changes since the appearance of anthropogenic effects. The discernable global warming started in the 19th century and after speeding up in the 20th century, it has reached about 0.8 K. This fact and the realization of the likely reasons for the changes, plus rapid development of computer technology have resulted in systematic investigations of climate science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finalized its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. The present paper suveys some recent moments of global and regional climate change issued after the Report. Even the economic crisis was not strong enough to deflect the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing for more than one year. It tends to develop at the upper edge of the IPCC (2007) projection band of uncertainties. The part of the emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is increasing due to weakening of both the biospheric- and the oceanic sinks of this greenhouse gas. The new radiation balance estimations must admit the imbalance between the atmosphere and the oceans indicating the fact that the greenhouse warming definitely takes place. The year 2010 became most likely the warmest one on the global temperature record. The sea-level rise also follows the most rapid track among the foreseen scenarios. In the meantime modelling effort to better estimate regional features of the changes also develop in their full strength. The ENSEMBLES Project ended in December 2009 and published a lot of maps with 25 km model resolution. These results, however, do not show convergence in the estimations for many regions, including Central Europe.

Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

2015-01-01

Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

2005-12-01

From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

A Construction of Global Literacy Indicators for Undergraduates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lung-Sheng Lee

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In the era of glocalization and logloblization, only university graduates who are globally literate can effectively deal with international affairs or work overseas. Therefore, this study aimed to construct a set of global literacy indicators for undergraduates in Taiwan. The global literacy indicators can be used as a guide to assess undergraduates’ global literacy level and serve as the foundation for developing global education curriculums. Employing a theoretical framework, this study drafted global literacy dimensions and indicators from reviewing related literature, and invited 18 practitioners with international experience to participate in this study. During the item development process, fuzzy Delphi method (FDM and analytic hierarchy process (AHP were applied to select and weight global literacy indicators respectively. Consequently, a set of global literacy indicators for undergraduates were constructed, which include the following four dimensions: communication, context, career development, and culture. “Communication” is the most important dimension among them, while “communicate with foreign languages” and “use information and communication technology (ICT to communicate with others” are the most important indicators and items at the second and third hierarchical levels, respectively.

Climate change impacts on global food security.

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-02

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

2002-01-01

Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

Icarus's discovery: Acting on global climate change in the face of uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brooks, D.G.; Maracas, K.B.; Hayslip, R.M.

1994-01-01

The mythological character Icarus had the misfortune of learning the consequences of his decision to fly too near the sun at the same time he employed his decision. Although Daedalus tried to reduce the uncertainties of his son's decision by warning Icarus of the possible outcome, Icarus had no empirical knowledge of what would actually happen until his waxen wings melted and he fell to the sea. Like Icarus, man has no empirical knowledge or conclusive evidence today of the possible effects of global climate change. And though the consequences of policy decisions toward global climate change may not be as catastrophic as falling into the sea, the social and economic impacts of those decisions will be substantial. There are broad uncertainties related to the scientific and ecological aspects of global climate change. But clearly the ''politics'' of global climate change issues are moving at a faster rate than the science. There is a public outcry for action now, in the face of uncertainty. This paper profiles a case study of a southwestern utility's use of multi-attribute preference theory to reduce uncertainties and analyze its options for addressing global climate change issues

The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2011-02-15

Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

Global climate changes in the past and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schoenwiese, C.D.

1993-01-01

Is man changing the climate of the Earth, and if so, is this at a global scale? This question with all its reunifications, usually referred to under the heading ''greenhouse effect'', deservedly stands in the focus of public attention. Besides fears and warnings reaching even to disaster scenarios there have recently also been sceptical voices pointing out the imponderabilities of filtering anthropogenic effects out of the climate data. This uncertainty is not surprising to the expert, as natural changes of climate always have, and will, superimpose anthropogenic influences. Therefore, it is not enough to peer into the future with the help of intricate climate models. Diagnostic analysis of the past climate is at least just as important. (orig.) [de

Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

Science.gov (United States)

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

2014-01-01

Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local

A review of the global relationship among freshwater fish, autotrophic activity, and regional climate

Science.gov (United States)

Deines, Andrew M.; Bunnell, David B.; Rogers, Mark W.; Beard, T. Douglas; Taylor, William W.

2015-01-01

The relationship between autotrophic activity and freshwater fish populations is an important consideration for ecologists describing trophic structure in aquatic communities, fisheries managers tasked with increasing sustainable fisheries development, and fish farmers seeking to maximize production. Previous studies of the empirical relationships of autotrophic activity and freshwater fish yield have found positive relationships but were limited by small sample sizes, small geographic scopes, and the inability to compare patterns among many types of measurement techniques. Individual studies and reviews have also lacked consistent consideration of regional climate factors which may inform relationships between fisheries and autotrophic activity. We compiled data from over 700 freshwater systems worldwide and used meta-analysis and linear models to develop a comprehensive global synthesis between multiple metrics of autotrophic activity, fisheries, and climate indicators. Our results demonstrate that multiple metrics of fish (i.e., catch per unit effort, yield, and production) increase with autotrophic activity across a variety of fisheries. At the global scale additional variation in this positive relationship can be ascribed to regional climate differences (i.e., temperature and precipitation) across systems. Our results provide a method and proof-of-concept for assessing inland fisheries production at the global scale, where current estimates are highly uncertain, and may therefore inform the continued sustainable use of global inland fishery resources.

Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

2008-01-01

Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

2013-04-01

The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

2016-04-01

The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

National, ready-to-use climate indicators calculation and dissemination

Science.gov (United States)

Desiato, F.; Fioravanti, G.; Fraschetti, P.; Perconti, W.; Toreti, A.

2010-09-01

In Italy, meteorological data necessary and useful for climate studies are collected, processed and archived by a wide range of national and regional institutions. As a result, the density of the stations, the length and frequency of the observations, the quality control procedures and the database structure vary from one dataset to the other. In order to maximize the use of those data for climate knowledge and climate change assessments, a computerized system for the collection, quality control, calculation, regular update and rapid dissemination of climate indicators (denominated SCIA) was developed. Along with the pieces of information provided by complete metadata, climate indicators consist of statistics (mean, extremes, date of occurrence, standard deviation) over ten-days, monthly and yearly time periods of meteorological variables, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, water balance, evapotranspitaton, degree-days, cloud cover, sea level pressure, solar radiation. In addition, normal values over thirty-year reference climatological periods and yearly anomalies are calculated and made available. All climate indicators, as well as their time series at a single location or spatial distribution at a selected time, are available through a dedicated web site (www.scia.sinanet.apat.it). In addition, secondary products like high resolution temperature maps obtained by kriging spatial interpolation, are made available. Over the last three years, about 40000 visitors accessed to the SCIA web site, with an average of 45 visitors per day. Most frequent visitors belong to categories like universities and research institutes; private companies and general public are present as well. Apart from research purposes, climate indicators disseminated through SCIA may be used in several socio-economic sectors like energy consumption, water management, agriculture, tourism and health. With regards to our activity, we base on these indicators for the estimation of

Climate Services Information System Activities in Support of The Global Framework for Climate Services Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Klein-Tank, A.; Kolli, R. K.; Hechler, P.; Dilley, M.; Ceron, J. P.; Goodess, C.

2017-12-01

The WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl) supports the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) with a particular focus on the Climate Services Information System (CSIS), which is the core operational component of GFCS at the global, regional, and national level. CSIS is designed for producing, packaging and operationally delivering authoritative climate information data and products through appropriate operational systems, practices, data exchange, technical standards, authentication, communication, and product delivery. Its functions include climate analysis and monitoring, assessment and attribution, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal), and projection (centennial scale) as well as tailoring the associated products tUEAo suit user requirements. A central, enabling piece of implementation of CSIS is a Climate Services Toolkit (CST). In its development phase, CST exists as a prototype (www.wmo.int/cst) as a compilation of tools for generating tailored data and products for decision-making, with a special focus on national requirements in developing countries. WMO provides a server to house the CST prototype as well as support operations and maintenance. WMO members provide technical expertise and other in-kind support, including leadership of the CSIS development team. Several recent WMO events have helped with the deployment of CST within the eight countries that have been recognized by GFCS as illustrative for developing their climate services at national levels. Currently these countries are developing climate services projects focusing service development and delivery for selected economic sectors, such as for health, agriculture, energy, water resources, and hydrometeorological disaster risk reduction. These countries are working together with their respective WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), which provide technical assistance with implementation of climate services projects at the country level and facilitate development of

Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

2014-12-01

The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

Advancement of the climate dual strategy. New concepts for a globally effective climate protection; Weiterentwicklung der baden-wuerttembergischen Klimadoppelstrategie. Neue Konzepte fuer einen global wirksamen Klimaschutz

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-10-15

The Baden-Wuerttemberg Council on Sustainable Development (Stuttgart, Federal Republic of Germany) presents a climate expert report with new concepts for a globally effective climate protection. First of all, the development of the global emissions of carbon dioxide since 1990 is described. The development of the global emissions of carbon dioxide up to 2050 is forecasted. Four general criteria (effectiveness, efficiency, fairness and acceptance) for a comparative evaluation of climate protection concepts are introduced. A proposal for solution on the basis of a globally effective cap-and-trade system as well as an identical scenario as an alternative with respect to the implementation are described. This alternative scenario is based on a cap-and-trade system but it develops on the basis of national self-commitment in accordance with an incentive and sanctionative system. Both implementation proposals are compared. Recommendations of the national government Baden-Wuerttemberg are given.

Global climate targets and future consumption level: an evaluation of the required GHG intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girod, Bastien; Van Vuuren, Detlef Peter; Hertwich, Edgar G

2013-01-01

Discussion and analysis on international climate policy often focuses on the rather abstract level of total national and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At some point, however, emission reductions need to be translated to consumption level. In this article, we evaluate the implications of the strictest IPCC representative concentration pathway for key consumption categories (food, travel, shelter, goods, services). We use IPAT style identities to account for possible growth in global consumption levels and indicate the required change in GHG emission intensity for each category (i.e. GHG emission per calorie, person kilometer, square meter, kilogram, US dollar). The proposed concept provides guidance for product developers, consumers and policymakers. To reach the 2 °C climate target (2.1 tCO 2 -eq. per capita in 2050), the GHG emission intensity of consumption has to be reduced by a factor of 5 in 2050. The climate targets on consumption level allow discussion of the feasibility of this climate target at product and consumption level. In most consumption categories products in line with this climate target are available. For animal food and air travel, reaching the GHG intensity targets with product modifications alone will be challenging and therefore structural changes in consumption patterns might be needed. The concept opens up possibilities for further research on potential solutions on the consumption and product level to global climate mitigation. (letter)

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, T.; Haensler, A.; Rechid, D.; Pfeifer, S.; Eggert, B.; Jacob, D.

2018-04-01

At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, an agreement to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase well below 2°C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. In the paper we will discuss the analysis of indices assigned to the sectors health, agriculture, and infrastructure in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming world for the African continent. For this analysis an ensemble of 10 different general circulation model-regional climate model simulations conducted in the framework of the COordinated Downscaling EXperiment for Africa was investigated. The results show that the African continent, in particular the regions between 15°S and 15°N, has to expect an increase in hot nights and longer and more frequent heat waves even if the global temperature will be kept below 2°C. These effects intensify if the global mean temperature will exceed the 2°C threshold. Moreover, the daily rainfall intensity is expected to increase toward higher global warming scenarios and will affect especially the African Sub-Saharan coastal regions.

A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

2011-04-15

The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

Climate change at the coast: from global to local

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watkinson, A.R.

2009-01-01

The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

Toward 10-km mesh global climate simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ohfuchi, W.; Enomoto, T.; Takaya, K.; Yoshioka, M. K.

2002-12-01

An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that runs very efficiently on the Earth Simulator (ES) was developed. The ES is a gigantic vector-parallel computer with the peak performance of 40 Tflops. The AGCM, named AFES (AGCM for ES), was based on the version 5.4.02 of an AGCM developed jointly by the Center for Climate System Research, the University of Tokyo and the Japanese National Institute for Environmental Sciences. The AFES was, however, totally rewritten in FORTRAN90 and MPI while the original AGCM was written in FORTRAN77 and not capable of parallel computing. The AFES achieved 26 Tflops (about 65 % of the peak performance of the ES) at resolution of T1279L96 (10-km horizontal resolution and 500-m vertical resolution in middle troposphere to lower stratosphere). Some results of 10- to 20-day global simulations will be presented. At this moment, only short-term simulations are possible due to data storage limitation. As ten tera flops computing is achieved, peta byte data storage are necessary to conduct climate-type simulations at this super-high resolution global simulations. Some possibilities for future research topics in global super-high resolution climate simulations will be discussed. Some target topics are mesoscale structures and self-organization of the Baiu-Meiyu front over Japan, cyclogenecsis over the North Pacific and typhoons around the Japan area. Also improvement in local precipitation with increasing horizontal resolution will be demonstrated.

NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

2009-12-01

This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Science.gov (United States)

Fortini, Lucas B.; Dye, Kaipo

2017-01-01

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

2003-01-01

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

2010-08-07

Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flohn, H

1981-01-01

The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

Global and Local Discourses on Climate Change: A Perspective from the Concept of Embeddedness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jailab Kumar Rai

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change has been becoming a major order of business of all including researchers and academics. This is known that global, national and local organizations, institutions and even the individuals are partaking into the issues with their own perspectives and skills of negotiations. Despite the series of international efforts and attempts, there are also a series of national concerns, efforts and attempts in combating against the effects of global climate change. This paper is an attempt to draw on the overview of contexts and concerns of international communities for combating global climate change and its discursive influence in national policy discourses. Moreover, the paper attempts to assess the local socio-cultural discourses and dynamics of climate change in relation to global and national discourses. Finally the paper highlights on how global and local climate change knowledge networks and epistemic communities either from political processes or the socio-economic fabrics are interrelated and determinant to each other. Keywords: climate change; discourses; embeddeness; dynamics; global; local DOI: 10.3126/dsaj.v4i0.4518 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol.4 2010 pp.143-180

Session B4 Management for sustainable use — Global climate ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The IPCC Third Assessment Report confirms that the evidence for global climate change is now stronger than ever. While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if ...

Global land-use and market interactions between climate and bioenergy policies

Science.gov (United States)

Golub, A.; Hertel, T. W.; Rose, S. K.

2011-12-01

mitigation potential in non-US forests (8.9 GtCO2yr-1 at $27/tCO2eq). Furthermore, a carbon tax could lead to input substitution in agricultural production away from land and fertilizer (e.g., in China, an approximate 20% reduction in paddy rice acreage and 10% reduction in crop production fertilizer use at the same GHG price). Both results run counter to the changes in land-use induced by biofuels. However, given the energy security benefits for bioenergy, this study also evaluate whether a land GHG policy could manage international indirect land-use leakage concerns for bioenergy. In addition to a global perspective, a US perspective is taken to evaluate the implications of joint and separate bioenergy and climate policies on domestic offset and bioenergy supplies. Preliminary results indicate that US biofuels mandate reduces the global abatement potential for agriculture and forestry and thereby imposes an additional cost on society. There are regional comparative advantages in biofuels production (as well as non-biofuels crops and timber production). There are also regional comparative advantages in land-based GHG mitigation. By modeling bioenergy and climate policies separately and simultaneously, this study assess the net comparative advantage regions have in meeting these two sets of goals.

Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P

2015-01-01

Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations. (letter)

The petroleum industry's response to climate change: The role of the IPIECA Global Climate Change Working Group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemlin, J.S.; Graham Bryce, I.

1994-01-01

IPIECA formed the Global Climate Change Working Group in 1988 to coordinate members' efforts to understand the global climate change issue, to promote support for education and research, and to serve as the focus for engaging with international activities. The working group has sponsored a number of activities, including seminars and workshops. The Lisbon Experts Workshop on Socio-Economic Assessment of Climate Change in 1993 represents the most recent IPIECA forum for interaction between industry experts and those involved in the production of the IPCC 1995 Second Assessment Report. This workshop is described in the article. (author)

A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edlund Stefan

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. Methods This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data. The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation’s Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM. Results Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166–2

Environmental health indicators of climate change for the United States: findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative.

Science.gov (United States)

English, Paul B; Sinclair, Amber H; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin

2009-11-01

To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity.

Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

2009-03-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

Science.gov (United States)

Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

Global Air Quality and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.;

Global climate change adaptation: examples from Russian boreal forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krankina, O.N.; Dixon, R.K.; Kirilenko, A.P.; Kobak, K.I.

1997-01-01

The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaption measures for them: (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation

Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diamond, A.W.

1990-01-01

Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

Experts' workshop on critical issues in the science of global climate change. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

A summary is given of the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association's Workshop on 'Critical issues in the science of global climate change' held in 1994. The topics of the panel sessions were (1) modelling global climate change: capabilities and limitations; (2)the physics and chemistry of greenhouse gas concentrations; (3) other factors in predicting climate change; and (4) ecosystem response. (UK)

Global climate change and California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knox, J.B.; Scheuring, A.F.

1991-01-01

In the fall of 1988 the University of California organized a new public-service initiative on global climate change in response to inquiries and requests from members of Congress and the Department of Energy (DOE). This new systemwide initiative involved all of the University of California campuses and the University's three national laboratories at Berkeley, Los Alamos, and Livermore. The goal of this Greenhouse Initiative was to focus the multidisciplinary resources of the UC campuses and the team-oriented research capabilities of the laboratories on the prospect of global warming and its associated effects on the planet and its nations. In consultation with the DOE, the organizers proposed a series of workshops to focus University of California research resources on the issue of global warming, to contribute to the congressionally mandated DOE studies on options for the US to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by the year 2000, and to begin building a long-term research base contributing to an improved understanding of global change in all of its complexity and diverse discipline implications. This volume contains papers from the first of these workshops. Individual papers are processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

The Global Climate Dashboard: a Software Interface to Stream Comprehensive Climate Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gardiner, N.; Phillips, M.; NOAA Climate Portal Dashboard

2011-12-01

The Global Climate Dashboard is an integral component of NOAA's web portal to climate data, services, and value-added content for decision-makers, teachers, and the science-attentive public (www.clmate.gov). The dashboard provides a rapid view of observational data that demonstrate climate change and variability, as well as outputs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 3, which was built to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment. The data shown in the dashboard therefore span a range of climate science disciplines with applications that serve audiences with diverse needs. The dashboard is designed with reusable software components that allow it to be implemented incrementally on a wide range of platforms including desktops, tablet devices, and mobile phones. The underlying software components support live streaming of data and provide a way of encapsulating graph sytles and other presentation details into a device-independent standard format that results in a common visual look and feel across all platforms. Here we describe the pedagogical objectives, technical implementation, and the deployment of the dashboard through climate.gov and partner web sites and describe plans to develop a mobile application using the same framework.

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2013-01-01

This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

KAUST Repository

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

2015-09-23

Explosive volcanic eruptions are magnificent events that in many ways affect the Earth\\'s natural processes and climate. They cause sporadic perturbations of the planet\\'s energy balance, activating complex climate feedbacks and providing unique opportunities to better quantify those processes. We know that explosive eruptions cause cooling in the atmosphere for a few years, but we have just recently realized that volcanic signals can be seen in the subsurface ocean for decades. The volcanic forcing of the previous two centuries offsets the ocean heat uptake and diminishes global warming by about 30%. The explosive volcanism of the twenty-first century is unlikely to either cause any significant climate signal or to delay the pace of global warming. The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial aerosol layer in the lower stratosphere to counteract global warming. In this chapter we aim to discuss these recently discovered volcanic effects and specifically pay attention to how we can learn about the hidden Earth-system mechanisms activated by explosive volcanic eruptions. To demonstrate these effects we use our own model results when possible along with available observations, as well as review closely related recent publications.

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Lucio, Filipe

2015-04-01

The World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva 2009) unanimously decided to establish the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), a UN-led initiative spearheaded by WMO to guide the development and application of science-based climate information and services in support of decision-making in climate sensitive sectors. By promoting science-based decision-making, the GFCS is empowering governments, communities and companies to build climate resilience, reduce vulnerabilities and adapt to impacts. The initial priority areas of GFCS are Agriculture and Food Security; Disaster Risk Reduction; Health; and Water Resources. The implementation of GFCS is well underway with a governance structure now fully established. The governance structure of GFCS includes the Partner Advisory Committee (PAC), which is GFCS's stakeholder engagement mechanism. The membership of the PAC allows for a broad participation of stakeholders. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Commission (EC), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), the Global Water Partnership (GWP), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), the World Food Programme (WFP) and WMO have already joined the PAC. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean, Asia and Pacific Small Islands Developing States through flagship projects and activities in the four priority areas of GFCS to enable the development of a Proof of Concept. The focus at national level is on strengthening institutional capacities needed for development of capacities for co-design and co-production of climate services and their application in support of decision-making in climate sensitive

The Potential Of Fission Nuclear Energy In Resolving Global Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pevec, D.

2015-01-01

There is an international consensus on the need of drastic reduction of carbon emission if very serious global climate changes are to be avoided. At present target is to limit global temperature increase to 2 Degrees of C and to keep CO 2 concentration below 450 ppm, though some recent request by climatologists argue for lower limit of 1.5 Degrees of C. The carbon emission reduction has to be done in the next few decades, as climate effects are essentially determined by integral emission. The integral emissions should not exceed 1000 Gt CO 2 to keep the probability of exceeding global temperature by 2 Degrees of C below 25 percent. Consequently, when we consider energy sources that could produce carbon free energy we have to concentrate on the period not later than 2060-2065. The sources that can take the burden of reduction in the years up to 2065 are Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and nuclear fission energy. The potential of RES has been estimated by many organizations and individuals. Their predictions indicate that RES are not likely to be sufficient to replace carbon emitters and fulfill the 2 Degrees of C limit requirements. The nuclear fission energy can give a very serious and hopefully timely (unlike nuclear fusion) contribution to reduction of emission. Even with proven conventional reactors using once through fuel cycle without fuel reprocessing the nuclear build-up in the years 2025-2065 could reach 3330 GW. With this concept nuclear contribution of 94.5 EJ/y would be reached by 2065, while integral CO 2 emission savings would be about 500 Gt CO 2 by 2065. This shows that essential nuclear contribution is possible without the use of plutonium and fast breeders, technology not ready for climate-critical next 50 years and not acceptable in present political environment. This nuclear fission energy contribution along with contributions from renewable sources, energy saving, and increased efficiency in energy use can solve the climate problems. (author).

Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Fenton, L.K.; Geissler, P.E.; Haberle, R.M.

2007-01-01

For hundreds of years, scientists have tracked the changing appearance of Mars, first by hand drawings and later by photographs. Because of this historical record, many classical albedo patterns have long been known to shift in appearance over time. Decadal variations of the martian surface albedo are generally attributed to removal and deposition of small amounts of relatively bright dust on the surface. Large swaths of the surface (up to 56 million km2) have been observed to darken or brighten by 10 per cent or more. It is unknown, however, how these albedo changes affect wind circulation, dust transport and the feedback between these processes and the martian climate. Here we present predictions from a Mars general circulation model, indicating that the observed interannual albedo alterations strongly influence the martian environment. Results indicate enhanced wind stress in recently darkened areas and decreased wind stress in brightened areas, producing a positive feedback system in which the albedo changes strengthen the winds that generate the changes. The simulations also predict a net annual global warming of surface air temperatures by ???0.65 K, enhancing dust lifting by increasing the likelihood of dust devil generation. The increase in global dust lifting by both wind stress and dust devils may affect the mechanisms that trigger large dust storm initiation, a poorly understood phenomenon, unique to Mars. In addition, predicted increases in summertime air temperatures at high southern latitudes would contribute to the rapid and steady scarp retreat that has been observed in the south polar residual ice for the past four Mars years. Our results suggest that documented albedo changes affect recent climate change and large-scale weather patterns on Mars, and thus albedo variations are a necessary component of future atmospheric and climate studies. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

The rise and fall of the global climate polity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Corry, Olaf

2013-01-01

Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited to engine......Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited...... to engineering local and temporary effects on rainfall, and historically many schemes ended in failure or even ridicule (Fleming 2012). Few if any people seriously entertained the idea that people, states, corporations and international organizations would mobilize and operate giant monitoring and regulatory...... systems in concerted attempts to change (or preserve) the chemical composition of the global atmosphere. This raises not only the question of how the idea of governing something like the climate so rapidly became a matter of course but also how sure we can be that it will remain so in, for example...

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

2007-01-01

Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale

Climate Change, Global Food Markets, and Urban Unrest

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-01

Francis Gavin 512-471-6267 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) Standard Form 298 (Rev 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 - Climate Change, Global Food...Russia led then-President Dmitry Medvedev to impose export restrictions on wheat, barley, and rye . Food security is fundamental to human security. Prior...how much food is grown and where it is grown. Second, climate change will increase the frequency of localized crop failures due to more frequent

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-01-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

Science.gov (United States)

Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-13

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, FA

2011-12-01

Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Njoto, Sukrisno; Howe, Charles W.

1991-01-01

Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Peter L.

2009-01-01

Global climate change, prior to the 20th century, appears to have been initiated primarily by major changes in volcanic activity. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is the most voluminous chemically active gas emitted by volcanoes and is readily oxidized to sulfuric acid normally within weeks. But trace amounts of SO 2 exert significant influence on climate. All major historic volcanic eruptions have formed sulfuric acid aerosols in the lower stratosphere that cooled the earth's surface ∼ 0.5 o C for typically three years. While such events are currently happening once every 80 years, there are times in geologic history when they occurred every few to a dozen years. These were times when the earth was cooled incrementally into major ice ages. There have also been two dozen times during the past 46,000 years when major volcanic eruptions occurred every year or two or even several times per year for decades. Each of these times was contemporaneous with very rapid global warming. Large volumes of SO 2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in very rapid warming. Such warming and associated acid rain becomes extreme when millions of cubic kilometers of basalt are erupted in much less than one million years. These are the times of the greatest mass extinctions. When major volcanic eruptions do not occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere, global cooling and decadal drought. Prior to the 20th century, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) followed increases in temperature initiated by changes in SO 2 . By 1962, man burning fossil fuels was adding SO 2 to the atmosphere at a rate equivalent to one 'large' volcanic eruption each 1.7 years. Global temperatures increased slowly from 1890 to 1950 as anthropogenic sulfur increased slowly. Global temperatures increased more rapidly after 1950 as the rate of anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased. By

WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-12-31

The brochure gives a summary of global climate during 1996, from information provided by the Climate Prediction Center in the United States with inputs from other climate centres around the world. The 1997 global mean surface temperature anomaly, 0.43{degree}C above the 1961-90 base-period mean temperature, was the highest since records began in 1860. One major contributing factor was the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode with temperatures in the tropical belt being the second highest in the historical record. ENSO resulted in increased rainfall in the central and eastern aquatorical pacific. In Indonesia, low rainfall from March to December and drought conditions by July and August contributed to uncontrolled wildfires in rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo resulting in widespread smoke pollution. The booklet is provided through the Climate Change Detection Project of the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP). 10 figs.

A review of Thailand's strategies for global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boonchalermkit, S.

1994-01-01

Thailand is greatly concerned about global climate change, which is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and the release of chlorofluorocarbons. The country itself is not currently a major contributor to global climate change. However, as Thailand's economy expands and its burning of fossil fuels increases, the country's contribution to global climate change could increase. Thailand's use of primary energy supplies grew at an average rate of 13.4 percent per year in the period 1985 to 1990. The rapid, sustained growth was due to the overall pace of growth in the economy and the expansion of industrial, construction, and transportation activities. The primary energy demand was approximately 31,600 kilotons of oil equivalent (KTOE) in 1990. The transportation sector accounted for the largest proportion of energy demand at 30 percent. Within the next 15 years, the power sector is expected to overtake the transportation sector as the largest consumer of energy. Petroleum is currently the predominant source of energy in Thailand, accounting for 56 percent of the primary energy demand. Thailand recognizes that it has an important part to play in finding solutions to minimizing emissions of greenhouse gases and identifying viable response strategies. Thus, in this paper the authors will present several policy strategies relevant to climate change in Thailand and discuss how they have been implemented and enforced. Policies concerning forestry, energy, and environment are reviewed in detail in this paper

Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Olin, Stefan; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Popp, Alexander; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2017-11-01

Land management for carbon storage is discussed as being indispensable for climate change mitigation because of its large potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and to avoid further emissions from deforestation. However, the acceptance and feasibility of land-based mitigation projects depends on potential side effects on other important ecosystem functions and their services. Here, we use projections of future land use and land cover for different land-based mitigation options from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) and evaluate their effects with a global dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). In the land-use models, carbon removal was achieved either via growth of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage, via avoided deforestation and afforestation, or via a combination of both. We compare these scenarios to a reference scenario without land-based mitigation and analyse the LPJ-GUESS simulations with the aim of assessing synergies and trade-offs across a range of ecosystem service indicators: carbon storage, surface albedo, evapotranspiration, water runoff, crop production, nitrogen loss, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds. In our mitigation simulations cumulative carbon storage by year 2099 ranged between 55 and 89 GtC. Other ecosystem service indicators were influenced heterogeneously both positively and negatively, with large variability across regions and land-use scenarios. Avoided deforestation and afforestation led to an increase in evapotranspiration and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, and to a decrease in albedo, runoff, and nitrogen loss. Crop production could also decrease in the afforestation scenarios as a result of reduced crop area, especially for MAgPIE land-use patterns, if assumed increases in crop yields cannot be realized. Bioenergy-based climate change mitigation was projected to affect less area globally than in the forest expansion scenarios, and resulted in

The Antarctic - the wild card in the global climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oesterhus, Svein; Gammelsroed, Tor; Foldvik, Arne; Noest, Ole Anders

1999-01-01

The overview gives an account of studies of snowfall, ice melting and formation and water flow patterns in the Antarctic during the present global warming period. It also gives a survey of the ice area in the region. The sea water warming is dramatic and a large floating glacier seems to be decomposing which is disrupting the oceanographic and ecological relations in the region and globally and is significantly influencing the global climate

Bringing a Realistic Global Climate Modeling Experience to a Broader Audience

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Zhou, J.

2010-12-01

EdGCM, the Educational Global Climate Model, was developed with the goal of helping students learn about climate change and climate modeling by giving them the ability to run a genuine NASA global climate model (GCM) on a desktop computer. Since EdGCM was first publicly released in January 2005, tens of thousands of users on seven continents have downloaded the software. EdGCM has been utilized by climate science educators from middle school through graduate school levels, and on occasion even by researchers who otherwise do not have ready access to climate model at national labs in the U.S. and elsewhere. The EdGCM software is designed to walk users through the same process a climate scientist would use in designing and running simulations, and analyzing and visualizing GCM output. Although the current interface design gives users a clear view of some of the complexities involved in using a climate model, it can be daunting for users whose main focus is on climate science rather than modeling per se. As part of the work funded by NASA’s Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) program, we will begin modifications to the user interface that will improve the accessibility of EdGCM to a wider array of users, especially at the middle school and high school levels, by: 1) Developing an automated approach (a “wizard”) to simplify the user experience in setting up new climate simulations; 2) Produce a catalog of “rediscovery experiments” that allow users to reproduce published climate model results, and in some cases compare model projections to real world data; and 3) Enhance distance learning and online learning opportunities through the development of a web-based interface. The prototypes for these modifications will then be presented to educators belonging to an EdGCM Users Group for feedback, so that we can further refine the EdGCM software, and thus deliver the tools and materials educators want and need across a wider range of learning environments.

Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Brien, Karen; Aandahl, Guro; Tompkins, Heather [CICERO, Oslo (NO)] (and others)

2004-12-01

There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research community that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local- level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region, and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (Author)

Health effects of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghauri, B.; Salam, M.; Mirza I.

1992-01-01

This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

Developing country finance in a post-2020 global climate agreement

Science.gov (United States)

Hannam, Phillip M.; Liao, Zhenliang; Davis, Steven J.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2015-11-01

A central task for negotiators of the post-2020 global climate agreement is to construct a finance regime that supports low-carbon development in developing economies. As power sector investments between developing countries grow, the climate finance regime should incentivize the decarbonization of these major sources of finance by integrating them as a complement to the commitments of developed nations. The emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, South-South Cooperation Fund and other nascent institutions reveal the fissures that exist in rules and norms surrounding international finance in the power sector. Structuring the climate agreement in Paris to credit qualified finance from the developing world could have several advantages, including: (1) encouraging low-carbon cooperation between developing countries; (2) incentivizing emerging investors to prefer low-carbon investments; and (3) enabling more cost-effective attainment of national and global climate objectives. Failure to coordinate on standards now could hinder low-carbon development in the decades to come.

Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

Science.gov (United States)

Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

2012-10-01

Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Tropical forest policies for the global climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Groot, W.T.; Kamminga, E.M.

1995-01-01

A summary is given of the approach and findings of the NRP project 'Local Actors and Global Tree Cover Policies'. The aim of this project was to identify the most effective and efficient options for global climate policies focusing on the tropical forest. Tropical deforestation is a process with very complex and variable causes. In the project's conclusions, therefore, much care has been given to arrive at a coherent image of what really counts most in the myriad of factors, actors, policy levels and policy options. 5 refs

Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

Science.gov (United States)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2016-05-01

A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

2012-01-01

The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

Reliability of flipper-banded penguins as indicators of climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Saraux, Claire; Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Viblanc, Vincent A; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Beaune, David; Park, Young-Hyang; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Stenseth, Nils C; Le Maho, Yvon

2011-01-13

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted an urgent need to assess the responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. Because they lie in a high-latitude region, the Southern Ocean ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected by global warming. Using top predators of this highly productive ocean (such as penguins) as integrative indicators may help us assess the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Yet most available information on penguin population dynamics is based on the controversial use of flipper banding. Although some reports have found the effects of flipper bands to be deleterious, some short-term (one-year) studies have concluded otherwise, resulting in the continuation of extensive banding schemes and the use of data sets thus collected to predict climate impact on natural populations. Here we show that banding of free-ranging king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) impairs both survival and reproduction, ultimately affecting population growth rate. Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study, banded birds produced 41% [corrected] fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16 percentage points [corrected] lower than non-banded birds, demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded. Indeed, banded birds still arrived later for breeding at the study site and had longer foraging trips even after 10 years. One of our major findings is that responses of flipper-banded penguins to climate variability (that is, changes in sea surface temperature and in the Southern Oscillation index) differ from those of non-banded birds. We show that only long-term investigations may allow an evaluation of the impact of flipper bands and that every major life-history trait can be affected, calling into question the banding schemes still going on. In addition, our understanding of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems based on flipper

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucas B. Fortini

2017-07-01

Full Text Available For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

Forum on Global Climate Strategies. Beyond 2012. The Route Ahead. Looking for a consensus framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Arriaga, E.; Linares, P.; Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

2007-06-01

The scientific knowledge on climate change has firmed up considerably. This has been made broadly known by the publication of the initial documents of the Fourth Assessment Report on global warming by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The ample body of available scientific evidence now clearly indicates that climate change is serious and urgent. There is a generalized consensus from major academic, professional and political institutions about the importance of the climate change threat. This is more than enough to urge policy makers to put together a response that measures up to the challenge. A diversity of schemes and strategies to address climate change have been already identified and debated in public forums, so the challenges of a plausible long-term strategy, as well as the viewpoints of all countries, are now mostly explicit and known. Climate change can only be effectively tackled through broad participation in the global reduction effort by all present and future major emitters. Resolved political will is needed to make real progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There is a growing sense of urgency for stronger actions to curb the primary causes and to prepare for the consequences of global warming. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all Parties, especially the largest emitters, to join a global agreement and achieve sufficient reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to comply with art. 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Dialogue among the key international partners to explore global climate strategies is already being conducted in various international forums: formally under the UNFCC, but also within the G8 and other multilateral and bilateral meetings. Identification, analysis and proposals of alternatives are also being put forth in high-quality workshops run by universities and NGOs, with

Developing Health-Related Indicators of Climate Change: Australian Stakeholder Perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Navi, Maryam; Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Pisaniello, Dino

2017-05-22

Climate-related health indicators are potentially useful for tracking and predicting the adverse public health effects of climate change, identifying vulnerable populations, and monitoring interventions. However, there is a need to understand stakeholders' perspectives on the identification, development, and utility of such indicators. A qualitative approach was used, comprising semi-structured interviews with key informants and service providers from government and non-government stakeholder organizations in South Australia. Stakeholders saw a need for indicators that could enable the monitoring of health impacts and time trends, vulnerability to climate change, and those which could also be used as communication tools. Four key criteria for utility were identified, namely robust and credible indicators, specificity, data availability, and being able to be spatially represented. The variability of risk factors in different regions, lack of resources, and data and methodological issues were identified as the main barriers to indicator development. This study demonstrates a high level of stakeholder awareness of the health impacts of climate change, and the need for indicators that can inform policy makers regarding interventions.

Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

2012-05-27

Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae

2017-12-01

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2018-04-01

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

Global climate change and human health: Information needs, research priorities, and strategic considerations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farrell, M.P.; Kanciruk, P. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); O' Hara, F.M. Jr. (O' Hara (Fred M., Jr.), Oak Ridge, TN (USA))

1989-01-01

The US Global Research Plan and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme were created to assess the effects of global climate change but have not been able to devote much attention to the consequences climate change will have on human health and welfare. Although researchers and policy makers recognize that climate change will have complex effects on resources, in general, the social and medical sciences have not received appropriate international attention under the banner of global change. To address this imbalance, the public health research community needs to launch a international coordinated effort so that the social and medical sciences are as fully represented as other scientific disciplines. This document discusses the information needs, research priorities and strategic considerations of the global change and its impact on human health.

Reference evapotranspiration forecasting based on local meteorological and global climate information screened by partial mutual information

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Wei; Huang, Shengzhi; Huang, Qiang; Huang, Guohe; Meng, Erhao; Luan, Jinkai

2018-06-01

In this study, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) forecasting models are developed for the least economically developed regions subject to meteorological data scarcity. Firstly, the partial mutual information (PMI) capable of capturing the linear and nonlinear dependence is investigated regarding its utility to identify relevant predictors and exclude those that are redundant through the comparison with partial linear correlation. An efficient input selection technique is crucial for decreasing model data requirements. Then, the interconnection between global climate indices and regional ET0 is identified. Relevant climatic indices are introduced as additional predictors to comprise information regarding ET0, which ought to be provided by meteorological data unavailable. The case study in the Jing River and Beiluo River basins, China, reveals that PMI outperforms the partial linear correlation in excluding the redundant information, favouring the yield of smaller predictor sets. The teleconnection analysis identifies the correlation between Nino 1 + 2 and regional ET0, indicating influences of ENSO events on the evapotranspiration process in the study area. Furthermore, introducing Nino 1 + 2 as predictors helps to yield more accurate ET0 forecasts. A model performance comparison also shows that non-linear stochastic models (SVR or RF with input selection through PMI) do not always outperform linear models (MLR with inputs screen by linear correlation). However, the former can offer quite comparable performance depending on smaller predictor sets. Therefore, efforts such as screening model inputs through PMI and incorporating global climatic indices interconnected with ET0 can benefit the development of ET0 forecasting models suitable for data-scarce regions.

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

Science.gov (United States)

Cassman, Kenneth G.

2007-03-01

There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

2017-12-01

Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

An automated system for access to derived climate indices in support of ecological impacts assessments and resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, J.; Morisette, J. T.; Talbert, C.; Blodgett, D. L.; Kunicki, T.

2012-12-01

A U.S. Geological Survey team is working with several providers to establish standard data services for the climate projection data they host. To meet the needs of climate adaptation science and landscape management communities, the team is establishing a set of climate index calculation algorithms that will consume data from various providers and provide directly useful data derivatives. Climate projections coming from various scenarios, modeling centers, and downscaling methods are increasing in number and size. Global change impact modeling and assessment, generally, requires inputs in the form of climate indices or values derived from raw climate projections. This requirement puts a large burden on a community not familiar with climate data formats, semantics, and processing techniques and requires storage capacity and computing resources out of the reach of most. In order to fully understand the implications of our best available climate projections, assessments must take into account an ensemble of climate projections and potentially a range of parameters for calculation of climate indices. These requirements around data access and processing are not unique from project to project, or even among projected climate data sets, pointing to the need for a reusable tool to generate climate indices. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a pilot application and supporting web service framework that automates the generation of climate indices. The web service framework consists of standards-based data servers and a data integration broker. The resulting system allows data producers to publish and maintain ownership of their data and data consumers to access climate derivatives via a simple to use "data product ordering" workflow. Data access and processing is completed on enterprise "cloud" computing resources and only the relatively small, derived climate indices are delivered to the scientist or land manager. These services will assist the scientific and land

Climate and desertification: indicators for an assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sciortino, M.; Caiaffa, E.; Fattoruso, G.; Donolo, R.; Salvetti, G.

2009-01-01

This work aims to define a methodology that, on the basis of commonly available surface climate records, assesses indicators of the increase or decrease of the extension of territories vulnerable to desertification and land degradation. The definition and quantification of environmental policy relevant indicators aims to improve the understanding and the decision making processes in dry lands. the results of this study show that since 1931 changes of climate involved 90% of the territory of the Sicilian region, with stronger intensity in the internal areas of Enna, Caltanissetta and Palermo provinces. (Author) 9 refs.

High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. S. Mizielinski

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk project constructed and ran an ensemble of HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 3 atmosphere-only global climate simulations over the period 1985–2011, at resolutions of N512 (25 km, N216 (60 km and N96 (130 km as used in current global weather forecasting, seasonal prediction and climate modelling respectively. Alongside these present climate simulations a parallel ensemble looking at extremes of future climate was run, using a time-slice methodology to consider conditions at the end of this century. These simulations were primarily performed using a 144 million core hour, single year grant of computing time from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe in 2012, with additional resources supplied by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC and the Met Office. Almost 400 terabytes of simulation data were generated on the HERMIT supercomputer at the High Performance Computing Center Stuttgart (HLRS, and transferred to the JASMIN super-data cluster provided by the Science and Technology Facilities Council Centre for Data Archival (STFC CEDA for analysis and storage. In this paper we describe the implementation of the project, present the technical challenges in terms of optimisation, data output, transfer and storage that such a project involves and include details of the model configuration and the composition of the UPSCALE data set. This data set is available for scientific analysis to allow assessment of the value of model resolution in both present and potential future climate conditions.

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, C. S.

1997-01-01

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Climate change denial, freedom of speech and global justice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trygve Lavik

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper I claim that there are moral reasons for making climate denialism illegal . First I define climate denialism, and then I discuss its impact on society and its reception in the media.  I build my philosophical arguments mainly on John Stuart Mill and Thomas M. Scanlon.  According to Mill’s utilitarian justification of free speech, even untrue opinions are valuable in society’s pursuit of more truth. Consequently one might think that Mill’s philosophy would justify climate denialists’ right to free speech.  A major section of the paper argues against that view. The main arguments are: Climate denialism is not beneficial because its main goal is to produce doubt, and not truth. Climate denialism is not sincerely meant, which is a necessary condition for Mill to accept utterances. Climate denialists bring harm, by blocking necessary action on climate change.  Primarily they harm future generations and people in developing countries. Hence the case can be made in terms of global justice: Would future generations and people in developing countries support my claim? I think so, or so I argue. My argument from global justice is built on Scanlon’s distinction between the interests of participants, the interests of audiences, and the interests of bystanders.  The climate denialists have participant interests ‘in being able to call something to the attention of a wide audience’. Audience interests consist in ‘having access to expressions that we wish to hear or read, and even in being exposed to some degree to expressions we have not chosen’. Future generations and people in poor countries are bystanders to the climate debate. If the debate postpones necessary actions, it is the bystanders who must pay the price. I argue that bystanders’ costs outweigh participants’ and audiences’ interests, and that this is an argument for a statutory ban on climate denialism.Article first published online: 21 DEC 2015 

Global alteration of climate - hopes and fears

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viktorov, V.V.

1992-01-01

Problems concerning gaseous emission affecting the global climate alteration connected with hotbed effect are considered. Economical and social-political ways of solution of the problem of minimization of gaseous wastes are described. Role of nuclear power plants and alternative power plants in the hotbed effect are analyzed. International cooperation in environmental protection policy is discussed

Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

Science.gov (United States)

Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

2013-04-01

For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

1994-01-01

This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

State of Climate 2011 - Global Ocean Phytoplankton

Science.gov (United States)

Siegel, D. A.; Antoine, D.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; d'Andon, O. H. Fanton; Fields, E.; Franz, B. A.; Goryl, P.; Maritorena, S.; McClain, C. R.; Wang, M.;

Climate change adaptation: Where does global health fit in the agenda?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bowen Kathryn J

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Kyoto PLUS: Efficient global emission trade for an effective future climate policy; Kyoto PLUS: Effizienter globaler Emissionshandel fuer eine zukuenftig wirksame Weltklimapolitik

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wicke, L. [Inst. fuer Umwelt-Management (IfUM) an der ESCP-EAP, Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany)

2007-08-15

The majority of climate protection experts believe that the Kyoto Protocol in its present version provides a basis for preventing the climate change from taking on disastrous dimensions. In the meantime however a mainstream of opinion has developed which advocates the establishment of a functioning global climate protection system for the post-Kyoto phase. Kyoto Plus, a global climate certification system, is a concept developed by the author of three expert opinions for the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg which takes the principles of the Kyoto Protocol a step forward while striving to eliminate its weaknesses and which has matured sufficiently to be put into practice. Systems of this or a similar kind could enable Germany to make a decisive additional contribution to global climate protection, as the author stated at the BT Hearing on 23 May 2007.

Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Colwell, R R

1996-12-20

The origin of cholera has been elusive, even though scientific evidence clearly shows it is a waterborne disease. However, standard bacteriological procedures for isolation of the cholera vibrio from environmental samples, including water, between epidemics generally were unsuccessful. Vibrio cholerae, a marine vibrio, requiring salt for growth, enters into a dormant, viable but nonculturable stage when conditions are unfavorable for growth and reproduction. The association of Vibrio cholerae with plankton, notably copepods, provides further evidence for the environmental origin of cholera, as well as an explanation for the sporadic and erratic occurrence of cholera epidemics. On a global scale, cholera epidemics can now be related to climate and climatic events, such as El Niño, as well as the global distribution of the plankton host. Remote sensing, with the use of satellite imagery, offers the potential for predicting conditions conducive to cholera outbreaks or epidemics.

The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

2016-03-17

Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

2010-04-01

Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

Analysis of climate change indices in relation to wine production: A case study in the Douro region (Portugal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blanco-Ward Daniel

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine-growing regions of the world, in particular the Douro region, are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing season temperatures limited to 13–21°C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change detection and for grape production with particular emphasis on extreme events (e.g. cold waves, storms, heat waves. Dynamical downscaling of MPI-ESM-LR global data forced with RCP8.5 climatic scenario is performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF model to a regional scale including the Douro valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005 and future periods (2046–2065; 2081–2100. The number, duration and intensity of events are superimposed over critical phenological phases of the vine (dormancy, bud burst, flowering, véraison, and maturity in order to assess their positive or negative implications on wine production in the region. An assessment on the statistical significance of climatic indices, their differences between the recent-past and the future scenarios and the potential impact on wine production is performed. Preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties. These results will provide evidence for future strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.

1.2 million years of climate change, globally and in the Mediterranean

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Konijnendijk, T.Y.M.

2015-01-01

In this thesis we make a detailed reconstruction of climate changes based on materials from the Mediterranean Sea. Not only does this provide new insights in climate changes in the Mediterranean region, the aim is to improve our understanding of global climate changes as well. We created a single

The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Khachatryan, S.

2009-05-01

Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

Science.gov (United States)

Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

2017-03-01

Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

Multinationals and global climate change. Issues for the automotive and oil industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolk, A.; Levy, D.

2003-01-01

This chapter analyzes the strategic responses by U.S. and European multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the oil and automobile industries to the global climate change issue. We examine and attempt to explain the differences across regions, across industries, and the changes over time. Traditional economic drivers of strategy do not provide a satisfactory account for these differences, and the chapter focuses instead on the conflicting institutional pressures on MNEs and the implications for their climate strategy. The home-country institutional context and individual corporate histories can create divergent pressures on strategy for MNEs based in different countries. At the same time, the location of MNEs in global industries and their participation in 'global issues arenas' such as climate change generate institutional forces for strategic convergence. It appears that local context influenced initial corporate reactions, but that convergent pressures predominate as the issue matures

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

2017-12-01

The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

Science.gov (United States)

Schleussner, C. F.

2016-12-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

Support for global climate reorganization during the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graham, N.E. [Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA (United States); Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ammann, C.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Fleitmann, D. [University of Bern, Institute of Geological Sciences, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climatic Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Cobb, K.M. [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Luterbacher, J. [Justus-Liebig-University, Giessen (Germany)

2011-09-15

Widely distributed proxy records indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; {proportional_to}900-1350 AD) was characterized by coherent shifts in large-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. Although cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific can explain some aspects of medieval circulation changes, they are not sufficient to account for other notable features, including widespread aridity through the Eurasian sub-tropics, stronger winter westerlies across the North Atlantic and Western Europe, and shifts in monsoon rainfall patterns across Africa and South Asia. We present results from a full-physics coupled climate model showing that a slight warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans relative to the other tropical ocean basins can induce a broad range of the medieval circulation and climate changes indicated by proxy data, including many of those not explained by a cooler tropical Pacific alone. Important aspects of the results resemble those from previous simulations examining the climatic response to the rapid Indian Ocean warming during the late twentieth century, and to results from climate warming simulations - especially in indicating an expansion of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. Notably, the pattern of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change responsible for producing the proxy-model similarity in our results agrees well with MCA-LIA SST differences obtained in a recent proxy-based climate field reconstruction. Though much remains unclear, our results indicate that the MCA was characterized by an enhanced zonal Indo-Pacific SST gradient with resulting changes in Northern Hemisphere tropical and extra-tropical circulation patterns and hydroclimate regimes, linkages that may explain the coherent regional climate shifts indicated by proxy records from across the planet. The findings provide new perspectives on the nature and possible causes of the MCA

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2016-01-01

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L.; Acot, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L.; Raynaud, D.; Thuiller, W.; Le Treut, H.; Houssais, M.N.; Duplessy, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Douville, H.; Barberousse, A.; Quinon, P.

2007-01-01

The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)

Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

2016-04-01

Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

Perspectives on global climate change: A review of the adaptation and mitigation approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrisette, P.M.

1992-01-01

This paper was prepared for the conference on Global Climate Change and International Security sponsored by the Midwest Consortium for International Security Studies of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and held in Chicago, Illinois on February 11-13, 1992. The purpose of the paper is to provide some background on the different perceptions and perspectives that are presently shaping the policy debate on how to respond to the problem of global warming. For better or worse, this debate has focused primarily on whether to adapt to climate change in the future or to mitigate climate change in the present, and as the issue has become increasingly political this debate has become polarized. The two approaches, as this paper notes, are not mutually exclusive; in fact, they share much in common. Differences, however, can be found in how proponents of each view the risks of global climate change. This paper provides a brief outline of the progression of global warming from an obscure scientific concern into a leading international political issue, reviews previous efforts by social scientists to assess attitudes and positions on global warming, and examines in detail the adaptation and mitigation perspectives and assesses how they differ on the basis of different conceptions of uncertainty and risk, equity, and technology

Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henderson-Sellers, A.

2001-01-01

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

Global Climate Change for Kids: Making Difficult Ideas Accessible and Exciting

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, D. K.; Leon, N.; Greene, M. P.

2009-12-01

NASA has recently launched its Global Climate Change web site (http://climate.nasa.gov), and it has been very well received. It has now also launched in preliminary form an associated site for children and educators, with a plan for completion in the near future. The goals of the NASA Global Climate Change Education site are: To increase awareness and understanding of climate change science in upper-elementary and middle-school students, reinforcing and building upon basic concepts introduced in the formal science education curriculum for these grades; To present, insofar as possible, a holistic picture of climate change science and current evidence of climate change, describing Earth as a system of interconnected processes; To be entertaining and motivating; To be clear and easy to understand; To be easy to navigate; To address multiple learning styles; To describe and promote "green" careers; To increase awareness of NASA's contributions to climate change science; To provide valuable resources for educators; To be compliant with Section 508 of the Americans with Disabilities Act. The site incorporates research findings not only on climate change, but also on effective web design for children. It is envisioned that most of the content of the site will ultimately be presented in multimedia forms. These will include illustrated and narrated "slide shows," animated expositions, interactive concept-rich games and demonstrations, videos, animated fictionalized stories, and printable picture galleries. In recognition of the attention span of the audience, content is presented in short, modular form, with a suggested, but not mandatory order of access. Empathetic animal and human cartoon personalities are used to explain concepts and tell stories. Expository, fiction, game, video, text, and image modules are interlinked for reinforcement of similar ideas. NASA's Global Climate Change Education web site addresses the vital need to impart and emphasize Earth system science

Acting locally, developing knowledge globally: a transitions perspective on designing climate change adaptation strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grin, J.; Driessen, J.; Leroy, P.; van Vierssen, W.

2010-01-01

Climate change, from many perspectives and for many reasons, is a complex issue: scientifically, politically, and in terms of global justice. As such, climate change might be the global societal and political challenge of the 21st century. Dealing with it, either via mitigation or via adaptation,

Global Climate Change Impacts in the Sinaloa State, México

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Miguel Flores Campaña

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The variation of environmental conditions deriving from global climate change in the state of Sinaloa and its impact on the region's main productive activities have not been sufficiently studied. The article describes various phenomena associated with climate change and its consequences for Sinaloa, analyzes the scarce climate scenarios that include the region, and discusses the modifications caused by tropical cyclones and interannual changes. It also discusses the repercussions of climate change on agricultural activity and aspects related to sea level rise. Finally, the text empathizes on the lack of local estimations and studies that could serve as base for improved planning strategies and initiatives to facilitate adaptation to climate change in the region.

Resolving the Aerosol Piece of the Global Climate Picture

Science.gov (United States)

Kahn, R. A.

2017-12-01

Factors affecting our ability to calculate climate forcing and estimate model predictive skill include direct radiative effects of aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. Several decades of Earth-observing satellite observations have produced a global aerosol column-amount (AOD) record, but an aerosol microphysical property record required for climate and many air quality applications is lacking. Surface-based photometers offer qualitative aerosol-type classification, and several space-based instruments map aerosol air-mass types under favorable conditions. However, aerosol hygroscopicity, mass extinction efficiency (MEE), and quantitative light absorption, must be obtained from in situ measurements. Completing the aerosol piece of the climate picture requires three elements: (1) continuing global AOD and qualitative type mapping from space-based, multi-angle imagers and aerosol vertical distribution from near-source stereo imaging and downwind lidar, (2) systematic, quantitative in situ observations of particle properties unobtainable from space, and (3) continuing transport modeling to connect observations to sources, and extrapolate limited sampling in space and time. At present, the biggest challenges to producing the needed aerosol data record are: filling gaps in particle property observations, maintaining global observing capabilities, and putting the pieces together. Obtaining the PDFs of key particle properties, adequately sampled, is now the leading observational deficiency. One simplifying factor is that, for a given aerosol source and season, aerosol amounts often vary, but particle properties tend to be repeatable. SAM-CAAM (Systematic Aircraft Measurements to Characterize Aerosol Air Masses), a modest aircraft payload deployed frequently could fill this gap, adding value to the entire satellite data record, improving aerosol property assumptions in retrieval algorithms, and providing MEEs to translate between remote-sensing optical constraints

Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

2012-09-01

Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.

Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2017-05-09

May 9, 2017 ... Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research ... The Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) ... the decisions they need to make about investment choices and development options, ...

Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

2008-02-01

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Cities: A Global Baseline.

Science.gov (United States)

Araos, Malcolm; Austin, Stephanie E; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D

2016-01-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on human health, and urban populations are expected to be highly sensitive. The health risks from climate change in cities are compounded by rapid urbanization, high population density, and climate-sensitive built environments. Local governments are positioned to protect populations from climate health risks, but it is unclear whether municipalities are producing climate-adaptive policies. In this article, we develop and apply systematic methods to assess the state of public health adaptation in 401 urban areas globally with more than 1 million people, creating the first global baseline for urban public health adaptation. We find that only 10% of the sampled urban areas report any public health adaptation initiatives. The initiatives identified most frequently address risks posed by extreme weather events and involve direct changes in management or behavior rather than capacity building, research, or long-term investments in infrastructure. Based on our characterization of the current urban health adaptation landscape, we identify several gaps: limited evidence of reporting of institutional adaptation at the municipal level in urban areas in the Global South; lack of information-based adaptation initiatives; limited focus on initiatives addressing infectious disease risks; and absence of monitoring, reporting, and evaluation. © The Author(s) 2015.

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, A.

2009-01-01

This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO 2 uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10 15 kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)

Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Giesen, R.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831603; Oerlemans, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06833656X

2013-01-01

The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century