Climate and Global Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

1991-01-01

The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

Global precipitations and climate change. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desbois, M.; Desalmand, F.

1994-01-01

The workshop reviewed the present status of knowledge concerning the past and present evolution of the distribution of precipitations at global scale, related to climate evolution at different time scales. This review was intended to assess the availability and quality of data which could help, through validation and initialization of model studies, to improve our understanding of the processes determining these precipitation changes. On another hand, the modelling specialists presented their actual use of precipitation data. Exchanges of views between the modelling and observing communities were thus made possible, leading to a set of recommendations for future studies. Sessions were then devoted to specific themes: 1) Paleoclimatology, 2) data collection, history and statistics, programmes, 3) methodologies and accuracy of large scale estimation of precipitation from conventional data, 4) estimation of precipitation from satellite data, 5) modelling studies. (orig.)

"Evolution Canyon," a potential microscale monitor of global warming across life.

Science.gov (United States)

Nevo, Eviatar

2012-02-21

Climatic change and stress is a major driving force of evolution. The effects of climate change on living organisms have been shown primarily on regional and global scales. Here I propose the "Evolution Canyon" (EC) microscale model as a potential life monitor of global warming in Israel and the rest of the world. The EC model reveals evolution in action at a microscale involving biodiversity divergence, adaptation, and incipient sympatric speciation across life from viruses and bacteria through fungi, plants, and animals. The EC consists of two abutting slopes separated, on average, by 200 m. The tropical, xeric, savannoid, "African" south-facing slope (AS = SFS) abuts the forested "European" north-facing slope (ES = NFS). The AS receives 200-800% higher solar radiation than the ES. The ES represents the south European forested maquis. The AS and ES exhibit drought and shade stress, respectively. Major adaptations on the AS are because of solar radiation, heat, and drought, whereas those on the ES relate to light stress and photosynthesis. Preliminary evidence suggests the extinction of some European species on the ES and AS. In Drosophila, a 10-fold higher migration was recorded in 2003 from the AS to ES. I advance some predictions that could be followed in diverse species in EC. The EC microclimatic model is optimal to track global warming at a microscale across life from viruses and bacteria to mammals in Israel, and in additional ECs across the planet.

The evolution of climatic niches in squamate reptiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Pie, Marcio R; Campos, Leonardo L F; Meyer, Andreas L S; Duran, Andressa

2017-07-12

Despite the remarkable diversity found in squamate reptiles, most of their species tend to be found in warm/dry environments, suggesting that climatic requirements played a crucial role in their diversification, yet little is known about the evolution of their climatic niches. In this study, we integrate climatic information associated with the geographical distribution of 1882 squamate species and their phylogenetic relationships to investigate the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in squamates, both over time and among lineages. We found that changes in climatic niche dynamics were pronounced over their recent squamate evolutionary history, and we identified extensive evidence for rate heterogeneity in squamate climatic niche evolution. Most rate shifts involved accelerations, particularly over the past 50 Myr. Most squamates occupy similar regions of the climatic niche space, with only a few lineages diversifying into colder and humid climatic conditions. The changes from arid to mesic conditions in some regions of the globe may have provided opportunities for climatic niche evolution, although most lineages tended to remain near their ancestral niche. Variation in rates of climatic niche evolution seems common, particularly in response to the availability of new climatic conditions over evolutionary time. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

2014-11-22

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Climate change - global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciconkov, Risto

2001-01-01

An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

Global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, J.S.

1991-01-01

Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

1991-01-01

The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a Mini Nuclear Winter'' as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

Global simulations of smoke from Kuwaiti oil fires and possible effects on climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C.; Kao, C.Y.J.

1991-12-31

The Los Alamos Global Climate Model has bee used to simulate the global evolution of the Kuwaiti oil fire smoke and its potential effects on the climate. The initial simulations were done shortly before the fires were lit in January 1991. They indicated that such an event would not result in a ``Mini Nuclear Winter`` as some people were suggesting. Further simulations during the year suggested that the smoke could be responsible for subtle regional climate changes in the spring such as a 5 degree centigrade decrease in the surface temperature in Kuwait, a 10% decrease in precipitation in Saudi Arabia and a 10% increase in precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau region. These results are in qualitative agreement with the observations this year.

Social Evolution, Global Governance and a World Parliament

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Bummel

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This article describes the relevance of a world parliament in the context of long-term social evolution and the crisis of global governance.[*] It is argued that due to the development of weapons of mass destruction and complex interdependency, war has ceased to be a driver of socio-evolutionary consolidation of power at the world-system level. At the same time, there is an increasingly urgent need for global governance in spheres such as climate change mitigation or economics and finances. The author looks at how the established and now dysfunctional pattern of evolutionary change can be overcome and identifies the institution of a world parliament as an important political and psychological aspect of the evolving collective.

Regionalizing global climate models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

2012-01-01

Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

Global nuclear markets in the context of climate change and sustainable development. Chapter 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrison, R.

2001-01-01

This article (Chapter Two) focuses on the global nuclear markets in the context of policies regarding climate change and sustainable development. The global market realities and the export potential of the canadian nuclear industry are becoming crucial features of the nuclear political economy. The article examines the role of exports in the evolution of nuclear policy in Canada, and looks more closely at nuclear power and CANDU projects in the specific context of global competitive markets. It examines the trends in electricity and nuclear energy in the market for nuclear reactors. Finally, this article locates these changes in the context of the issues that are inherent in climate change and sustainable development

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Jake M

2013-09-22

A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

Global change and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Matesanz, Silvia; Gianoli, Ernesto; Valladares, Fernando

2010-09-01

Global change drivers create new environmental scenarios and selective pressures, affecting plant species in various interacting ways. Plants respond with changes in phenology, physiology, and reproduction, with consequences for biotic interactions and community composition. We review information on phenotypic plasticity, a primary means by which plants cope with global change scenarios, recommending promising approaches for investigating the evolution of plasticity and describing constraints to its evolution. We discuss the important but largely ignored role of phenotypic plasticity in range shifts and review the extensive literature on invasive species as models of evolutionary change in novel environments. Plasticity can play a role both in the short-term response of plant populations to global change as well as in their long-term fate through the maintenance of genetic variation. In new environmental conditions, plasticity of certain functional traits may be beneficial (i.e., the plastic response is accompanied by a fitness advantage) and thus selected for. Plasticity can also be relevant in the establishment and persistence of plants in novel environments that are crucial for populations at the colonizing edge in range shifts induced by climate change. Experimental studies show taxonomically widespread plastic responses to global change drivers in many functional traits, though there is a lack of empirical support for many theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Future studies should assess the adaptive value and evolutionary potential of plasticity under complex, realistic global change scenarios. Promising tools include resurrection protocols and artificial selection experiments. © 2010 New York Academy of Sciences.

Global warming and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-10-01

A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

“Evolution Canyon,” a potential microscale monitor of global warming across life

Science.gov (United States)

Nevo, Eviatar

2012-01-01

Climatic change and stress is a major driving force of evolution. The effects of climate change on living organisms have been shown primarily on regional and global scales. Here I propose the “Evolution Canyon” (EC) microscale model as a potential life monitor of global warming in Israel and the rest of the world. The EC model reveals evolution in action at a microscale involving biodiversity divergence, adaptation, and incipient sympatric speciation across life from viruses and bacteria through fungi, plants, and animals. The EC consists of two abutting slopes separated, on average, by 200 m. The tropical, xeric, savannoid, “African” south-facing slope (AS = SFS) abuts the forested “European” north-facing slope (ES = NFS). The AS receives 200–800% higher solar radiation than the ES. The ES represents the south European forested maquis. The AS and ES exhibit drought and shade stress, respectively. Major adaptations on the AS are because of solar radiation, heat, and drought, whereas those on the ES relate to light stress and photosynthesis. Preliminary evidence suggests the extinction of some European species on the ES and AS. In Drosophila, a 10-fold higher migration was recorded in 2003 from the AS to ES. I advance some predictions that could be followed in diverse species in EC. The EC microclimatic model is optimal to track global warming at a microscale across life from viruses and bacteria to mammals in Israel, and in additional ECs across the planet. PMID:22308456

Global Governance of Climate Change The Paris Agreement as a New Component of the UN Climate Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David A. Wirth

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Paris Agreement, which was adopted in December 2015 and entered into force less than a year later, is the newest instrument to be adopted in the United Nations-sponsored global climate regime. The Paris Agreement takes its place under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change and next to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and 2012 Doha Amendment. After describing the historical evolution of the UN climate regime employing the tools of international law, this Article explores the structural, institutional, and legal relationships between the new Paris Agreement and the prior development and content of UN-sponsored efforts on climate protection under the auspices of the 1992 Framework Convention. The need for such an analysis is particularly urgent because the new instrument was purposely not identified as a “protocol,” and its relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol is unclear. This Article consequently traces the development of the universal, UN-anchored climate regime from its origins in the 1990s to the present moment, with particular attention to the structural relationship among its various components and historical junctures. The Article then examines the text and structure of the Paris Agreement, along with its context, against this background. The significance of the Agreement’s status as an instrument other than a “protocol,” and its uncertain textual and institutional relationship to the prior Kyoto Protocol, receive particular scrutiny. The Article concludes that the Paris Agreement, from a structural and institutional point of view, represents both a break with the past designed to initiate a new, globally-inclusive multilateral approach to climate protection, but also contains indications of continuity with prior questions of global climate policy.

Global change of the climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moharam-nejad, Naser.

1995-01-01

Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.

1992-01-01

The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)

Considering the Role of "Need for Cognition" in Students' Acceptance of Climate Change & Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Kudrna, Jeremy; Shore, Marta; Wassenberg, Deena

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and evolution are examples of issues that are perceived differently by scientists and the general public. Within the scientific community, there are clear consensuses that human activities are increasing global temperatures (ACC) and that evolutionary mechanisms have led to the biodiversity of life on Earth…

Integrating components of the earth system to model global climate changes: implications for the simulation of the climate of the next million years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duplessy, J.C.

2009-01-01

The climate system is complex because it is made up of several components (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, continental surface, ice sheets), each of which has its own response time. The paleo-climate record provides ample evidence that these components interact nonlinearly with each other and also with global biogeochemical cycles, which drive greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Forecasting the evolution of future climate is therefore an extremely complex problem. In addition, since the nineteenth century, human activities are releasing great quantities of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , CFC, etc.) into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the atmospheric content of these gases has tremendously increased. As they have a strong greenhouse effect, their concentration is now large enough to perturb the natural evolution of the earth's climate. In this paper, we shall review the strategy which has been used to develop and validate tools that would allow to simulate the future long-term behaviour of the Earth's climate. This strategy rests on two complementary approaches: developing numerical models of the climate system and validating them by comparing their output with present-day meteorological data and paleo-climatic reconstructions. We shall then evaluate the methods available to simulate climate at the regional scale and the major uncertainties that must be solved to reasonable estimate the long-term evolution of a region, which would receive a geological repository for nuclear wastes. (author)

Detailed Urban Heat Island Projections for Cities Worldwide: Dynamical Downscaling CMIP5 Global Climate Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirk Lauwaet

2015-06-01

Full Text Available A new dynamical downscaling methodology to analyze the impact of global climate change on the local climate of cities worldwide is presented. The urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim is coupled to 11 global climate models contained in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive, conducting 20-year simulations for present (1986–2005 and future (2081–2100 climate conditions, considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The evolution of the urban heat island of eight different cities, located on three continents, is quantified and assessed, with an unprecedented horizontal resolution of a few hundred meters. For all cities, urban and rural air temperatures are found to increase strongly, up to 7 °C. However, the urban heat island intensity in most cases increases only slightly, often even below the range of uncertainty. A potential explanation, focusing on the role of increased incoming longwave radiation, is put forth. Finally, an alternative method for generating urban climate projections is proposed, combining the ensemble temperature change statistics and the results of the present-day urban climate.

Global Climate Summaries

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Hourly Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically...

International Business and Global Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

2008-11-15

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance.

International Business and Global Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

2008-11-01

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance

Global climate change and introduced species in United States forests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simberloff, D. [Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 37996 Knoxville, TN (United States)

2000-11-15

Introduced species already cause billions of dollars of damage annually in United States forests, plus massive ecological damage whose economic value has often not been estimated. The variety of impacts is staggering and includes herbivory, predation, disease, parasitism, competition, habitat destruction, hybridization, and changed disturbance regimes and nutrient cycles. How global climate change will affect these impacts has scarcely been assessed. Range changes of existing introduced species will be prominent, as many species' biogeographic ranges are set primarily by climate. Similarly, some species that might otherwise not have survived will be able to establish populations in a changed climate. It is more difficult to predict what the impacts of the introduced species will be. What is most needed are studies of the combined impacts of changing climate, CO{sub 2}, and nutrients. Certain aspects of the biology of introduced species, such as evolution and autonomous dispersal, greatly complicate the prediction of spread and impact of introduced species.

Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

2006-01-01

The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

Global climate change and international security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, M.

1991-01-01

On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

Challenges of coordinating global climate observations - Role of satellites in climate monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Richter, C.

2017-12-01

Global observation of the Earth's atmosphere, ocean and land is essential for identifying climate variability and change, and for understanding their causes. Observation also provides data that are fundamental for evaluating, refining and initializing the models that predict how the climate system will vary over the months and seasons ahead, and that project how climate will change in the longer term under different assumptions concerning greenhouse gas emissions and other human influences. Long-term observational records have enabled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to deliver the message that warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. As the Earth's climate enters a new era, in which it is forced by human activities, as well as natural processes, it is critically important to sustain an observing system capable of detecting and documenting global climate variability and change over long periods of time. High-quality climate observations are required to assess the present state of the ocean, cryosphere, atmosphere and land and place them in context with the past. The global observing system for climate is not a single, centrally managed observing system. Rather, it is a composite "system of systems" comprising a set of climate-relevant observing, data-management, product-generation and data-distribution systems. Data from satellites underpin many of the Essential Climate Variables(ECVs), and their historic and contemporary archives are a key part of the global climate observing system. In general, the ECVs will be provided in the form of climate data records that are created by processing and archiving time series of satellite and in situ measurements. Early satellite data records are very valuable because they provide unique observations in many regions which were not otherwise observed during the 1970s and which can be assimilated in atmospheric reanalyses and so extend the satellite climate data records back in time.

Governing climate : the struggle for a global framework beyond Kyoto

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, T.; Hasselknippe, H.; Tangen, K.; Michaelowa, A.; Pan, J.; Sinton, J.

2005-01-01

This book presented the results of a 2 year research project which developed post-2012 climate regime scenarios. The aim of the project was to contribute to decision-making and dialogue between policy-makers and stakeholders. A range of scenarios for a post-2012 framework were developed which illustrated the many possible futures under which the global climate regime may evolve. Scenarios include the strengthening of a binding-cap approach; a bottom-up evolution of emission markets on a global scale; a regime consisting of multiple treaties among like-minded countries and a binding-cap regime with an emphasis on equity. Papers in this book explored key building blocks of a future climate regime, and presented ideas on how to broaden the current cap-and-trade regime. The roles and importance of technology were explored. Lessons from past successes were reviewed with the aim of developing options for their most effective use in the near future. The issue of financial flows to developing countries was addressed, including the issue of mainstreaming assistance for climate-change response. It was suggested that European countries will be key players in initial negotiations in the post-2012 regime, and that the current framework favours Europe while making it difficult for the United States, Japan and Canada to make ambitious commitments. It was concluded that a careful analysis of all the alternative paths available for international climate policies is needed. refs., tabs., figs

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

Science.gov (United States)

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

Land-use change and global climate policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gitz, V.

2004-03-01

This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO 2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO 2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

2012-01-10

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

Global Climate Change as Environmental Megacrisis

OpenAIRE

Endter-Wada, Joanna; Ingram, Helen

2012-01-01

The authors analyze global climate change utilizing insights from the governance and crisis management literatures that seek to understand the prospects, nature, characteristics and the effects of cataclysmic events. They argue that global climate change is a mega-crisis hiding in plain sight yet there has been no proportionate mega-crisis response. People are still grappling with how to make sense of climate change, how to bridge multiple ways of knowing it, and how to negotiate collective c...

State of the Climate - Global Hazards

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

State of the Climate - Global Analysis

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

[The global climate: a sick patient

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lidegaard, O.; Lidegaard, M.

2008-01-01

, and major climatic disasters, including health threats to millions of people, are probable if the CO2 emission increases further. Therefore, serious global initiatives should be taken now in order to prevent global over heating. Denmark should be at the forefront of these initiatives Udgivelsesdato: 2008/8/25......Over the last 100 years the human use of fossil fuel has increased the atmospheric CO2 content from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm. This increase is expected to increase the global average temperature by a few degrees. The global climate is very sensitive to an increase in temperature...

Evolution of the global virtual water trade network.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalin, Carole; Konar, Megan; Hanasaki, Naota; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2012-04-17

Global freshwater resources are under increasing pressure from economic development, population growth, and climate change. The international trade of water-intensive products (e.g., agricultural commodities) or virtual water trade has been suggested as a way to save water globally. We focus on the virtual water trade network associated with international food trade built with annual trade data and annual modeled virtual water content. The evolution of this network from 1986 to 2007 is analyzed and linked to trade policies, socioeconomic circumstances, and agricultural efficiency. We find that the number of trade connections and the volume of water associated with global food trade more than doubled in 22 years. Despite this growth, constant organizational features were observed in the network. However, both regional and national virtual water trade patterns significantly changed. Indeed, Asia increased its virtual water imports by more than 170%, switching from North America to South America as its main partner, whereas North America oriented to a growing intraregional trade. A dramatic rise in China's virtual water imports is associated with its increased soy imports after a domestic policy shift in 2000. Significantly, this shift has led the global soy market to save water on a global scale, but it also relies on expanding soy production in Brazil, which contributes to deforestation in the Amazon. We find that the international food trade has led to enhanced savings in global water resources over time, indicating its growing efficiency in terms of global water use.

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

2016-01-01

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

2009-12-15

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curtis, Fred

2009-01-01

The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

Testing a statistical method of global mean palotemperature estimations in a long climate simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

2001-07-01

Current statistical methods of reconstructing the climate of the last centuries are based on statistical models linking climate observations (temperature, sea-level-pressure) and proxy-climate data (tree-ring chronologies, ice-cores isotope concentrations, varved sediments, etc.). These models are calibrated in the instrumental period, and the longer time series of proxy data are then used to estimate the past evolution of the climate variables. Using such methods the global mean temperature of the last 600 years has been recently estimated. In this work this method of reconstruction is tested using data from a very long simulation with a climate model. This testing allows to estimate the errors of the estimations as a function of the number of proxy data and the time scale at which the estimations are probably reliable. (orig.)

Uncertainty and global climate change research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

1994-06-01

The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly

2011-01-01

, it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...... is subject to change and the nature of competition in agriculture-based business, focusing on wine....

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-12-01

As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

A globally integrated climate policy for Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernstein, S.; Brunnee, J.; Duff, D.G.; Green, A.J.

2008-01-01

This book explored policy ideas and options from various perspectives, including science, law, political science, economics and sociology. The costs, opportunities and imperatives to participate in international diplomatic initiatives were considered along with the opportunities of regional global carbon markets. Canada's current policy on climate change negotiations have been focused on domestic regulation and incentives for technological responses and the setting of a domestic carbon price. The sense of urgency about global warming was discussed and the need for action to respond to the threat of global climate change was emphasized. The book also reviewed Canada's role in international climate policies and presented parameters and imperatives for global regime building in Canada. Domestic policy tools were also reviewed along with policy obstacles and opportunities. refs., tabs., figs.

Long-run evolution of the global economy: 2. Hindcasts of innovation and growth

Science.gov (United States)

Garrett, T. J.

2015-03-01

Long-range climate forecasts rely upon integrated assessment models that link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework, outlined in Part 1, that is based on physical principles rather than explicitly resolved societal dynamics. Relative to a reference model of persistence in trends, model hindcasts that are initialized with data from 1950 to 1960 reproduce trends in global economic production and energy consumption between 2000 and 2010 with a skill score greater than 90%. In part, such high skill appears to be because civilization has responded to an impulse of fossil fuel discovery in the mid-twentieth century. Forecasting the coming century will be more of a challenge because the effect of the impulse appears to have nearly run its course. Nonetheless, the model offers physically constrained futures for the coupled evolution of civilization and climate during the Anthropocene.

The Ecological consequences of global climate change

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Woodward, F. I

1992-01-01

... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

The tundra - a threat to global climate?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roejle Christensen, T.

1997-01-01

The tundra biome has an important direct influence on the global climate through its exchange of radiatively active 'greenhouse gases', carbon dioxide and methane. A number of suggestions have been raised as to how a changing climate may alter the natural state of this exchange causing significant feedback effects in a changing climate. This paper provides a brief discussion of three different issues relating to the interaction between tundra and climate. It is concluded that release of methane hydrates, permafrost degradation and major biome changes are processes which in the long term may have important effects on further development of the global climate. (au) 32 refs

GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL:A COMPREHENSIVE TOOL IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dharmaveer Singh

2015-01-01

Full Text Available There is growing concern, how and to what extent future changes in climate will affect human society and natural environments. Continuous emissions of Green House Gasses (GHGs at or above current rates will cause further warming. This, in turn, may modify global climate system during 21st century that very likely would have larger impacts than those observed during 20th century. At present, Global Climate Models (GCMs are only the most reliable tools available for studying behaviour of the climate system. This paper presents a comprehensive review of GCMs including their development and applications in climate change impacts studies. Following a discussion of the limitations of GCMs at regional and local scales, different approaches of downscaling are discussed in detail.

Global Climate Exchange: Peer collaboration in a “Global classroom”

OpenAIRE

Korsager, Majken; Jorde, Doris; Slotta, Jim

2014-01-01

This paper reports on student peer collaboration in an online environment in an international shared curriculum, the Global Climate Exchange. Four cohorts of students (age 16 -19) from Canada, China, Norway and Sweden (n=157) were engaged in four wiki-based activities where they collaborated with peers locally and internationally. Previously, impact from Global Climate Exchange on students’ conceptual understanding was analysed, indicating a positive impact which might be explained by the amo...

Scientist's Perceptions of Uncertainty During Discussions of Global Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Romanello, S.; Fortner, R.; Dervin, B.

2003-04-01

This research examines the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists during discussions of global climate change. In particular, it explores whether the disagreements between natural and social scientists are related to the ontological, epistemological, or methodological nature of the uncertainty of global climate change during these discussions. A purposeful sample of 30 natural and social scientists recognized as experts in global climate change by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and National Academies Committee on Global Change were interviewed to elicit their perceptions of disagreements during their three most troublesome discussions on global climate change. A mixed-method (qualitative plus quantitative research) approach with three independent variables was used to explore nature of uncertainty as a mediating variable in the relationships between academic training, level of sureness, level of knowledge, and position on global climate change, and the nature of disagreements and bridging strategies of natural and social scientists (Patton, 1997; Frechtling et al., 1997). This dissertation posits that it is the differences in the nature of uncertainty communicated by natural and social scientists and not sureness, knowledge, and position on global climate change that causes disagreements between the groups. By describing the nature of disagreements between natural and social scientists and illuminating bridging techniques scientists use during these disagreements, it is hoped that information collected from this research will create a better dialogue between the scientists studying global climate change by providing communication strategies which will allow those versed in one particular area to speak to non-experts whether they be other scientists, media officials, or the public. These tangible strategies can then be used by government agencies to create better communications and education plans, which can

Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

Science.gov (United States)

Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2012-12-01

Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that

Climatic evolution during the last century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schuurmans, C.J.E.; Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht

1991-01-01

An attempt is made to list the most important changes of the coupled climate system over the last 100 years. The most obvious of these is a small, global, though non-uniform, warming. Other concepts are discussed briefly: climate change under constant external forcing and due to external forcing, short term climate changes (less than 10 years), decadal variations, changes of the atmospheric circulation, changes in variability, recent climate in longer perspective, climatic jumps as a mode of variation, detection of the greenhouse warming

Strategic Global Climate Command?

Science.gov (United States)

Long, J. C. S.

2016-12-01

Researchers have been exploring geoengineering because Anthropogenic GHG emissions could drive the globe towards unihabitability for people, wildlife and vegetation. Potential global deployment of these technologies is inherently strategic. For example, solar radiation management to reflect more sunlight might be strategically useful during a period of time where the population completes an effort to cease emissions and carbon removal technologies might then be strategically deployed to move the atmospheric concentrations back to a safer level. Consequently, deployment of these global technologies requires the ability to think and act strategically on the part of the planet's governments. Such capacity most definitely does not exist today but it behooves scientists and engineers to be involved in thinking through how global command might develop because the way they do the research could support the development of a capacity to deploy intervention rationally -- or irrationally. Internationalizing research would get countries used to working together. Organizing the research in a step-wise manner where at each step scientists become skilled at explaining what they have learned, the quality of the information they have, what they don't know and what more they can do to reduce or handle uncertainty, etc. Such a process can increase societal confidence in being able to make wise decisions about deployment. Global capacity will also be enhanced if the sceintific establishment reinvents misssion driven research so that the programs will identify the systemic issues invovled in any proposed technology and systematically address them with research while still encouraging individual creativity. Geoengineering will diverge from climate science in that geoengineering research needs to design interventions for some publically desirable goal and investigates whether a proposed intervention will acheive desired outcomes. The effort must be a systems-engineering design problem

A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frey-Buness, A.; Heimann, D.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

1994-01-01

A statistical-dynamical downscaling procedure for global climate simulations is described. The procedure is based on the assumption that any regional climate is associated with a specific frequency distribution of classified large-scale weather situations. The frequency distributions are derived from multi-year episodes of low resolution global climate simulations. Highly resolved regional distributions of wind and temperature are calculated with a regional model for each class of large-scale weather situation. They are statistically evaluated by weighting them with the according climate-specific frequency. The procedure is exemplarily applied to the Alpine region for a global climate simulation of the present climate. (orig.)

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

Climate evolution on the terrestrial planets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasting, J.F.; Toon, O.B.

1989-01-01

The present comparative evaluation of the long-term evolution of the Venus, earth, and Mars climates suggests that the earth's climate has remained temperate over most of its history despite a secular solar luminosity increase in virtue of a negative-feedback cycle based on atmospheric CO 2 levels and climate. The examination of planetary climate histories suggests that an earth-sized planet should be able to maintain liquid water on its surface at orbital distances in the 0.9-1.5 AU range, comparable to the orbit of Mars; this, in turn, implies that there may be many other habitable planets within the Galaxy

Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majumdar, S.K.

1992-01-01

This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

Global climate change and California's water resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaux, H.J. Jr.

1991-01-01

This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

Maize production in terms of global climate changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bekavac Goran

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Climate changes and expected variability of climatic parameters represent a serious concern of the 21st century agriculture. At the global level, the further rise in temperature, changed quantity and distribution of precipitation, increased variability of climate parameters and the occurrence of extreme climate events are expected. In order to avoid, or at least reduce the negative effects of global climate change, several adaptation strategies are proposed. Adjustment of production technology and breeding for tolerance to changed environment are proposed as two most important adaptation measures.

Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

On coupling global biome models with climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ella Kokotsis

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

Late Globalization and Evolution and Metamorphoses of Industries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boujarzadeh, Behnam; Turcan, Romeo V.; Dholakia, Nikhilesh

2016-01-01

In this paper we explore the effect of late globalization on evolution of industries. Specifically we investigate the impact of late globalization on the evolution and metamorphoses of Danish Textile and Fashion Industry (DTFI). Using historical data, we survey the development of DTFI between 1945...

Clean coal technologies and global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, R.S.

1993-01-01

The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities

Land-use change and global climate policies; Usage des terres et politiques climatiques globales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gitz, V

2004-03-15

This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

Long-run evolution of the global economy - Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth

Science.gov (United States)

Garrett, T. J.

2015-10-01

Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches the global economy using purely physical principles rather than explicitly resolved societal dynamics. If this model is initialized with economic data from the 1950s, it yields hindcasts for how fast global economic production and energy consumption grew between 2000 and 2010 with skill scores > 90 % relative to a model of persistence in trends. The model appears to attain high skill partly because there was a strong impulse of discovery of fossil fuel energy reserves in the mid-twentieth century that helped civilization to grow rapidly as a deterministic physical response. Forecasting the coming century may prove more of a challenge because the effect of the energy impulse appears to have nearly run its course. Nonetheless, an understanding of the external forces that drive civilization may help development of constrained futures for the coupled evolution of civilization and climate during the Anthropocene.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

Science.gov (United States)

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

Global vs climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

1991-01-01

The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karl, T.R.

1995-12-01

Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

Global but fair. Controvert the climatic change, allow development; Global aber gerecht. Klimawandel bekaempfen, Entwicklung ermoeglichen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

The book includes the following chapters: global but fair: climate compatible development for everybody; climatic change consequences und vulnerabilities; ethic dimension: fairness in the context of climatic change and poverty; options and challenges for emissions abatement; options for the adaptation to the climatic change; global deal for climate and development policy; convert the climatic change, allow development: ten political messages.

International business and global climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

2008-01-01

Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and

On coupling global biome models with climate models

OpenAIRE

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hannah, Lee

2010-02-01

Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

2009-01-01

This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Yackle, Terri A

2007-01-01

.... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L.; Acot, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L.; Raynaud, D.; Thuiller, W.; Le Treut, H.; Houssais, M.N.; Duplessy, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Douville, H.; Barberousse, A.; Quinon, P.

2007-01-01

The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

Science.gov (United States)

Lúcio, F.

2012-04-01

Climate information at global, regional and national levels and in timeframes ranging from the past, present and future climate is fundamental for planning, sustainable development and to help organizations, countries and individuals adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate variability and change. Based on this recognition, in 2009, the Heads of States and Governments, Ministers and Heads of Delegation representing more than 150 countries, 34 United Nations Organizations and 36 Governmental and non-Governmental international organizations, and more than 2500 experts present at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC - 3) unanimously agreed to develop the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. They requested that a taskforce of high-level independent advisors be appointed to prepare a report, including recommendations on the proposed elements of the Framework and the next steps for its implementation. The high-level taskforce produced a report which was endorsed by the Sixteeth World Meteorological Congress XVI in May 2011. A process for the development of the implementation plan and the governance structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is well under way being led by the World Meteorological Organization within the UN system. This process involves consultations that engage a broad range of stakeholders including governments, UN and international agencies, regional organizations and specific communities of practitioners. These consultations are being conducted to facilitate discussions of key issues related to the production, availability, delivery and application of climate services in the four priority sectors of the framework (agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction) so that the implementation plan of the Framework is a true reflection of the aspirations of stakeholders. The GFCS is envisaged as

Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Tierney, Benjamin P.

2013-01-01

The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

Recent advances in understanding secondary organic aerosol: Implications for global climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Shrivastava, Manish; Cappa, Christopher D.; Fan, Jiwen; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Kuang, Chongai; Laskin, Alexander; Martin, Scot T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Petaja, Tuukka; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Rasch, Philip J.; Roldin, Pontus; Seinfeld, John H.; Shilling, John; Smith, James N.; Thornton, Joel A.; Volkamer, Rainer; Wang, Jian; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Zelenyuk, Alla; Zhang, Qi

2017-06-01

Anthropogenic emissions and land use changes have modified atmospheric aerosol concentrations and size distributions over time. Understanding preindustrial conditions and changes in organic aerosol due to anthropogenic activities is important because these features (1) influence estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and (2) can confound estimates of the historical response of climate to increases in greenhouse gases. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA), formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of organic gases, represents a major fraction of global submicron-sized atmospheric organic aerosol. Over the past decade, significant advances in understanding SOA properties and formation mechanisms have occurred through measurements, yet current climate models typically do not comprehensively include all important processes. This review summarizes some of the important developments during the past decade in understanding SOA formation. We highlight the importance of some processes that influence the growth of SOA particles to sizes relevant for clouds and radiative forcing, including formation of extremely low volatility organics in the gas phase, acid-catalyzed multiphase chemistry of isoprene epoxydiols, particle-phase oligomerization, and physical properties such as volatility and viscosity. Several SOA processes highlighted in this review are complex and interdependent and have nonlinear effects on the properties, formation, and evolution of SOA. Current global models neglect this complexity and nonlinearity and thus are less likely to accurately predict the climate forcing of SOA and project future climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Efforts are also needed to rank the most influential processes and nonlinear process-related interactions, so that these processes can be accurately represented in atmospheric chemistry-climate models.

Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.

Science.gov (United States)

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2017-08-16

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

2015-01-01

The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

Climatic Change and Human Evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Garratt, John R.

1995-01-01

Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)

Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

2012-08-15

Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

2011-10-15

During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

US climate policy: evolution and future prospects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agrawala, S.; Andresen, S.

2001-03-01

Climate change is a problem which US science has significantly helped to bring to the world's attention. It now requires initiatives in US domestic policy for even the first steps towards any realistic global resolution of this problem. This paper addresses three questions: (1) How has US climate policy evolved since climate change became an international political concern in the late 1980s?; (2) what is the relative significance of various factors, both domestic and international, in shaping this evolution?; and (3) what are some likely future scenarios for the climate regime and the role of the US under the new Bush (Jr.) administration? This analysis suggests that the US has generally played a cautious, even blocking role on the international arena, although the period between 1992 and 1997 witnessed a rather uneven march towards progressivism, culminating in the US agreeing to a 7 per cent cut in its greenhouse emissions by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. US policy during the Bush (Sr.) and Clinton administrations was primarily shaped by powerful ideologues, while a second critical determinant was the constitutional separation of powers between the executive and legislature. Scientific assessments and international negotiations meanwhile have given climate change unusual stamina on the domestic agenda, while the preferred set of policy responses has been constrained by a national culture that gives primacy to the market over the state. Looking into the future, the recent one-two punch delivered by President George W. Bush in reversing his pledge to regulate carbon dioxide followed by a rejection of US commitments under the Kyoto Protocol renders any expectation of measures to reduce domestic emissions unrealistic, and is likely to cripple the treaty in its present form. The possibility of an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol also appears very remote at this time. However, while official action is unlikely, it is possible that the growth of US

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

Acidic deposition and global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikolaidis, N.P.; Ecsedy, C.; Olem, H.; Nikolaidis, V.S.

1990-01-01

A literature is presented which examines the research published on understanding ecosystem acidification and the effects of acidic deposition on freshwaters. Topics of discussion include the following: acidic deposition; regional assessments; atmospheric deposition and transport; aquatic effects; mathematical modeling; liming acidic waters; global climate change; atmospheric changes; climate feedbacks; and aquatic effects

Geohistory: Global evolution of the earth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozima, M.

1987-01-01

This book traces the evolution of the Earth, mainly on the basis of radiogenic isotopes from half-life parent elements, and discusses it in terms of the latest developments in astrophysical theory, which impose unique constraints on the origin and early evolution of the earth. Owing to its historical nature, this geohistorical study offers an approach to forecasting the future of the Earth yielding clues for the understanding of environmental problems, such as radioactive waste to disposal and climate changes due to CO/sub 2/ increase

Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Riedy

2011-12-01

Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents.

Science.gov (United States)

Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

2005-03-22

Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change.

Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bond, Tami C

2007-01-01

'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO 2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored

Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

OpenAIRE

Deryng, Delphine

2014-01-01

As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

Science blogging: RealClimate.org and the Global Warming debate

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, G. A.

2006-12-01

The media and public policy debate suffer from an extreme form of Attention Deficit Disorder. Compared to the daily news cycle, the progress of scientific debate within the peer-reviewed literature is extremely slow. This puts serious scientists who work in relatively politicised fields (global warming, evolution, stem cell research and the like) at a huge disadvantage when it comes to having their voices heard above the noise. Since Dec 2004, RealClimate.org has been operating as a group blog (a web-based journal) run by climate scientists for interested members of the public and the media. The aim has been to provide the context for climate-related news stories that is often missing in the mainstream media and to explain the basics of our field to the often confused, but curious, members of the public. In particular, it has provided rapid reaction to mis-uses and abuses of scientific results by policy advocates across the spectrum. Reactions to the blog have been overwhelmingly (but not uniformly) positive from both professionals in the media, the scientific community and the public. It has been described as the 'go-to site' for climate science in the New York Times, and received a Scientific American Science and Technology Web award in 2005. I will discuss what impacts RealClimate may have had and the pluses and minuses of trying to reach the public through this kind of outlet.

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2010-12-15

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

Global climate change has already begun

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinclair, J.

1991-01-01

Global warning and climate change is now evident around the planet. Six of the eight warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s, while 1990 was the hottest year on record. The global imbalances seem set to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and restoration of the earth's forests is begun

Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

1994-05-01

This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

Asia's changing role in global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Siddiqi, Toufiq A

2008-10-01

Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview

OpenAIRE

Richard S.J. Tol

2012-01-01

A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy, but would imply an overhaul of other public policy. Catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy...

The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

2014-01-01

A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

The climate challenge - Objective: 2 deg. C

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jouzel, Jean; Debroise, Anne

2014-01-01

The authors propose a synthesis of current knowledge on past and future evolutions of climate. The first part addresses what is sure. The authors present and comment data published by the IPCC which show that global warming is certain. They present methods of investigation used by experts, scientists and researchers to identify and understand the past evolutions of climate on Earth, and then describe these evolutions. They describe the greenhouse gas effect and show that mankind is responsible for climate change, and comment the evolution of the debate on climate change at the international level and in France. The second part addresses predictions for tomorrow. The authors describe the consequences of climate change for ice floes, glaciers, seas, marine life and biodiversity, and of course for society and human life, and show how the French landscape is already modified by climate change. The third part addresses the issue of a de-carbonated or low-carbon future. The authors recall and present the various past and current international negotiations, outline recent positive evolutions in the commitment of countries, and give an overview of the various possibilities to mitigate global warming by the development of a low carbon economy (renewable energies, sustainable buildings, energy transition for industries). The last parts address the adaptation to climate change and French perspectives in relationship with the French environment policy

Sources of global climate data and visualization portals

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, David C.

2014-01-01

Climate is integral to the geophysical foundation upon which ecosystems are structured. Knowledge about mechanistic linkages between the geophysical and biological environments is essential for understanding how global warming may reshape contemporary ecosystems and ecosystem services. Numerous global data sources spanning several decades are available that document key geophysical metrics such as temperature and precipitation, and metrics of primary biological production such as vegetation phenology and ocean phytoplankton. This paper provides an internet directory to portals for visualizing or servers for downloading many of the more commonly used global datasets, as well as a description of how to write simple computer code to efficiently retrieve these data. The data are broadly useful for quantifying relationships between climate, habitat availability, and lower-trophic-level habitat quality - especially in Arctic regions where strong seasonality is accompanied by intrinsically high year-to-year variability. If defensible linkages between the geophysical (climate) and the biological environment can be established, general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate conditions can be used to infer future biological responses. Robustness of this approach is, however, complicated by the number of direct, indirect, or interacting linkages involved. For example, response of a predator species to climate change will be influenced by the responses of its prey and competitors, and so forth throughout a trophic web. The complexities of ecological systems warrant sensible and parsimonious approaches for assessing and establishing the role of natural climate variability in order to substantiate inferences about the potential effects of global warming.

Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

2015-01-01

The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

2011-01-01

Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...

Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

2012-09-15

There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

The need for New In Situ Measurements to Understand the Climate, Geology and Evolution of Venus.

Science.gov (United States)

Grinspoon, D. H.

2017-12-01

Many measurements needed to address outstanding questions about current processes and evolution of Venus can only be made from in situ platforms such as entry probes, balloons or landers. Among these are precise determination of the value and altitude dependence of the deuterium-to-hydrogen ratio, an important tracer of water history which, while clearly greatly elevated compared to the terrestrial ratio, is still unknown within a large range of uncertainty and appears, based on Venus Express results, to display an enigmatic altitude dependence. Rare gas abundances and isotopes provide clues to volatile sources and histories of outgassing and exospheric escape. Modern mass spectrometry at Venus would yield abundances of the eight stable xenon isotopes, bulk abundances of krypton, and isotopes of neon. Altitude profiles of sulfur-containing chemical species would illuminate global geochemical cycles, including cloud formation, outgassing rates and surface-atmosphere interactions. The altitude profile of wind speeds and radiation fluxes, interpreted in light of the Venus Express and Akatsuki data, would enrich understanding of the global circulation and climate dynamics of Venus. Descent and surface images of carefully chosen locations would lend ground truth to interpretations of the near-global Magellan data sets and provide context for global remote sensing data obtained by future orbiter missions. Landed instruments would provide refinement and calibration for chemical abundance measurements by historical missions as well as direct mineralogical measurements of Venusian surface and subsurface rocks. In concert with atmospheric measurements these would greatly constrain geologic history as well as the nature of surface-atmosphere interactions. Such a suite of measurements will deepen our understanding of the origin and evolution of Venus in the context of Solar System and extrasolar terrestrial planets, determine the level and style of current geological activity

Global climate-friendly trade : Canada's chance to clean up

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldfarb, D.

2010-03-01

This paper discussed the global trade and investment in climate-friendly technologies, Canada's current position in this market, and the policy changes that are necessary for Canadian businesses to gain a stronger foothold in this sector. The global market for climate-friendly technologies is growing rapidly, but Canadian businesses have generally failed to exploit opportunities to export climate-friendly technologies and have generally lagged other countries in adopting such technologies developed elsewhere. Although Canadian businesses generally underperform in this sector, Canada does have notable strengths in 13 identified areas, including waste management technologies, energy technologies, and in parts of the value chains associated with wind and solar power. Targeting these areas of relative strength for further development could position Canada as a global leader in some climate-friendly technologies. For this to happen, Canadian governments need to establish clear policies, invest in research and development, and remove domestic and international barriers to the development and trade in climate-friendly technologies. 30 refs., 5 tabs., 5 figs.

Policy options for stabilizing global climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lashof, D.A.; Tirpak, D.A.

1990-12-01

This report to congress by the US EPA explains the greenhouse effect and its influence on global climate. It outlines the trends in the greenhouse gases - their concentration history, distribution, sources and sinks and chemical and radiative properties. Climate change processes are discussed including climate feedbacks. Human activities affecting trace gases and climate are explained, followed by a chapter on the technical options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions which looks at energy services, energy supply, industry, forestry and agriculture. The future is considered, and the final chapters are concerned with policy options and international cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 934 refs., 102 figs., 84 tabs

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Karl, T. R.

2009-12-01

This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Caldeira, Ken; Wood, Lowell

2008-11-13

We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.

EVOLUTIONS IN GLOBAL AUTOMOBILES INDUSTRY

OpenAIRE

Viorel Pop

2013-01-01

This paper is a brief overview of the evolution of the global automotive industry during the 20th century, with reference to the main manufacturers, oil crises of 1970-1980, and also the global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008. The analyzed period covers the rise of the Asian Continent, beginning with Japan, then South Korea and more recently the emerging countries: China and India. What was predicted 20-25 years ago, became reality: Asia becomes the economic centre of the wor...

Climate Science's Globally Distributed Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, D. N.

2016-12-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is primarily funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Science (the Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] Climate Data Informatics Program and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research Next Generation Network for Science Program), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF), the European Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System Modeling (IS-ENES), and the Australian National University (ANU). Support also comes from other U.S. federal and international agencies. The federation works across multiple worldwide data centers and spans seven international network organizations to provide users with the ability to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a series of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered and united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports), multiple model intercomparison projects (MIPs; endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme [WCRP]), and the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME; ESGF is included in the overarching ACME workflow process to store model output). ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs the global climate science community. Data served by ESGF includes not only model output but also observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalysis, and generated images.

Global climate feedbacks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manowitz, B.

1990-10-01

The important physical, chemical, and biological events that affect global climate change occur on a mesoscale -- requiring high spatial resolution for their analysis. The Department of Energy has formulated two major initiatives under the US Global Change Program: ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements), and CHAMMP (Computer Hardware Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics). ARM is designed to use ground and air-craft based observations to document profiles of atmospheric composition, clouds, and radiative fluxes. With research and models of important physical processes, ARM will delineate the relationships between trace gases, aerosol and cloud structure, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, and will improve the parameterization of global circulation models. The present GCMs do not model important feedbacks, including those from clouds, oceans, and land processes. The purpose of this workshop is to identify such potential feedbacks, to evaluate the uncertainties in the feedback processes (and, if possible, to parameterize the feedback processes so that they can be treated in a GCM), and to recommend research programs that will reduce the uncertainties in important feedback processes. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, K.H.

2006-01-01

This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main...... question asked is to what extent external interventions have formed part of a country-driven approach in Uganda. The conflicting national and global priorities concerning the need for adaptation to the impacts of climate change versus the need for global mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are explored...... first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited...

Geohistory. Global evolution of the earth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ozima, Minoru

1987-01-01

A full understanding of the earth's evolution can be achieved only by considering it as a continuous process starting with the birth of the solar system. This book traces the evolution of the earth, mainly on the basis of radiogenic isotopes from long half-life parent elements, and discusses it in terms of the latest developments in astrophysical theory, which impose unique constraints on the earth's origin and early evolution. By its 'historical' nature, geohistorical study also offers a unique approach to forecasting the future of the earth, yielding useful clues for the understanding of environmental problems, such as radioactive waste disposal. This book aims to provide an outline of global evolution of the planet earth for students of general science and for earth scientists.

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-01-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global Snow & Ice

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Global biomass burning. Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, J.S.

1991-01-01

Biomass burning is a significant source of atmospheric gases and, as such, may contribute to global climate changes. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The chapters in this volume include the following topics: remote sensing of biomass burning from space;geographical distribution of burning; combustion products of burning in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems; burning as a global source of atmospheric gases and particulates; impacts of biomass burning gases and particulates on global climate; and the role of biomass burning on biodiversity and past global extinctions. A total of 1428 references are cited for the 63 chapters. Individual chapters are indexed separately for the data bases

Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

2008-06-15

The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aanund Killingtveit

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

The Evolution of Global Politics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Moldeski

1995-08-01

Full Text Available The rise and decline of world powers has attracted much scholarly attention in recent years. The theory of long cycles answers parsimoniously the question: why, in the past half millenium, have Portugal, the Dutch Republic, Britain (twice, and the United States risen to global leadership while others have failed to do so? This accounts for the success, or failure, of individual states, but to explain the entire sequence we need to employ an evolutionary paradigm that proposes that each of these long cycles is one mechanism in a spectrum of global evolutionary processes. The leadership succession is an intermediate stage in the evolution og global politics, whose next likely major phase, reaching a high point later in the 21st century, will be the gradual absorption of the informal role of global leadership, when embedded in a democratic community, into a network of more formal positions within an emerging global organization of a federalist character. The conditions of that process can now be specified.

Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

2017-12-01

Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

Data Descriptor: TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

Science.gov (United States)

John T. Abatzoglou; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks; Katherine C. Hegewisch

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958–2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from...

Climate and society: passed climates, man era, future climate: essential reference marks; Climat et societe: Climats passes, passage de l'homme, climat futur: reperes essentiels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melieres, M.A.; Marechal, Ch.

2010-07-01

This teaching book takes stock of the climate change question which has moved beyond the simple scientific framework. Man will play a key role in the changes to come and the choices he is going to make will have a major impact on our environment and on our societies. The aim of this book is to draw out the essential marks from the multiple disciplines involved in the study of climate change in order to get a global overview of the question. Starting from simple mechanisms showing up the driving components of the climate equilibrium (like the greenhouse effect), the authors analyse the climates of the past, and describe the different causes of the actual climate change and its possible evolution in the future. The global nature of the climate warming in progress is demonstrated and some of its actual impacts on the environment are shown up. The importance of the anthropic influence in this change is underlined as well as the stakes of the mastery of our greenhouse gas emissions. (J.S.)

Environment and Climate of Early Human Evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Naomi E.

2015-05-01

Evaluating the relationships between climate, the environment, and human traits is a key part of human origins research because changes in Earth's atmosphere, oceans, landscapes, and ecosystems over the past 10 Myr shaped the selection pressures experienced by early humans. In Africa, these relationships have been influenced by a combination of high-latitude ice distributions, sea surface temperatures, and low-latitude orbital forcing that resulted in large oscillations in vegetation and moisture availability that were modulated by local basin dynamics. The importance of both climate and tectonics in shaping African landscapes means that integrated views of the ecological, environmental, and tectonic histories of a region are necessary in order to understand the relationships between climate and human evolution.

Trump's Doctrine and Climate Change: New Challenges for Global Governance

OpenAIRE

Contipelli, Ernani

2017-01-01

The present communication aims to discuss the main topics related to Trump’s Doctrine and its effects on the implementation of global governance to fight against Climate Change. To present the argument, first, we will analyze the relation between global governance and climate change, followed by a general view of the climate change by some Republican Party members, and finally, the current policies already put in place by President Trump

The Co-evolution of Climate Models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Somerville, R. C.

2010-12-01

As recently as the 1950s, global climate models, or GCMs, did not exist, and the notion that man-made carbon dioxide might lead to significant climate change was not regarded as a serious possibility by most experts. Today, of course, the prospect or threat of exactly this type of climate change dominates the science and ranks among the most pressing issues confronting all mankind. Indeed, the prevailing scientific view throughout the first half of the twentieth century was that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would have only a negligible effect on climate. The science of climate change caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide changes has thus undergone a genuine revolution. An extraordinarily rapid development of global climate models has also characterized this period, especially in the three decades since about 1980. In these three decades, the number of GCMs has greatly increased, and their physical and computational aspects have both markedly improved. Modeling progress has been enabled by many scientific advances, of course, but especially by a massive increase in available computer power, with supercomputer speeds increasing by roughly a factor of a million in the three decades from about 1980 to 2010. This technological advance has permitted a rapid increase in the physical comprehensiveness of GCMs as well as in spatial computational resolution. In short, GCMs have dramatically evolved over time, in exactly the same recent period as popular interest and scientific concern about anthropogenic climate change have markedly increased. In parallel, a unique international organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has also recently come into being and also evolved rapidly. Today, the IPCC has become widely respected and globally influential. The IPCC was founded in 1988, and its history is thus even shorter than that of GCMs. Yet, its stature today is such that a series of IPCC reports assessing climate change science has already

An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

1995-01-01

ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

De Saedeleer, Bernard

2016-01-27

Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

2004-01-01

This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

Global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

2002-01-01

In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

2015-11-01

Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

2018-05-27

Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients

Science.gov (United States)

Craine, Joseph M.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Wang, Lixin; Augusto, Laurent; Baisden, W. Troy; Brookshire, E. N. J.; Cramer, Michael D.; Hasselquist, Niles J.; Hobbie, Erik A.; Kahmen, Ansgar; Koba, Keisuke; Kranabetter, J. Marty; Mack, Michelle C.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Mayor, Jordan R.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Michelsen, Anders; Nardoto, Gabriela B.; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Perakis, Steven S.; Peri, Pablo L.; Quesada, Carlos A.; Richter, Andreas; Schipper, Louis A.; Stevenson, Bryan A.; Turner, Benjamin L.; Viani, Ricardo A. G.; Wanek, Wolfgang; Zeller, Bernd

2015-01-01

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the 15 N: 14 N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in 15 N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ15N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ15N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015

OpenAIRE

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958–2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and sol...

Global Health Solidarity.

Science.gov (United States)

West-Oram, Peter G N; Buyx, Alena

2017-07-01

For much of the 20th century, vulnerability to deprivations of health has often been defined by geographical and economic factors. Those in wealthy, usually 'Northern' and 'Western', parts of the world have benefited from infrastructures, and accidents of geography and climate, which insulate them from many serious threats to health. Conversely, poorer people are typically exposed to more threats to health, and have lesser access to the infrastructures needed to safeguard them against the worst consequences of such exposure. However, in recent years the increasingly globalized nature of the world's economy, society and culture, combined with anthropogenic climate change and the evolution of antibiotic resistance, has begun to shift the boundaries that previously defined the categories of person threatened by many exogenous threats to health. In doing so, these factors expose both new and forgotten similarities between persons, and highlight the need for global cooperative responses to the existential threats posed by climate change and the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. In this article, we argue that these emerging health threats, in demonstrating the similarities that exist between even distant persons, provides a catalyst for global solidarity, which justifies, and provides motivation for, the establishment of solidaristic, cooperative global health infrastructures.

Development of a methodology to assess the climate evolution and its impacts on wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simard, I. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada); Yu, W. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). Meteorological Research Div.; Gagnon, Y. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). K.C. Irving Chair in Sustainable Development

2010-07-01

Maps of wind resources were used to develop a method of evaluating climatic changes and their potential impacts on wind energy resources. Global IPCC climate change scenarios were used to predict climatic conditions for the future, while past wind resource availability was simulated and validated using NCEP and NCAR reanalysis data as well as observed meteorological data from Environment Canada. The simulations were used to compare each 5-year period with a 50-year reference period. Regional scale climate change impacts were evaluated using a statistical dynamic down-scaling method. Advanced meteorological models were used to predict wind flow patterns across specific landscapes. The evolution of past wind resource availability was then simulated. Five-year wind resource simulations for a 50-year period were simulated at 25 km{sup 2} wind speeds at 80 m above the ground. Average wind speed variations were then evaluated. The method has been used to simulate 5-year periods within a 50-year reference period in New Brunswick. Further studies will be conducted to simulate future wind resources availability. tabs., figs.

Northern peatlands in global climatic change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

1996-12-31

Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

2017-05-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.

1992-05-01

This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

Speed of quantum evolution of entangled two qubits states: Local vs. global evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curilef, S; Zander, C; Plastino, A R

2008-01-01

There is a lower bound for the 'speed' of quantum evolution as measured by the time needed to reach an orthogonal state. We show that, for two-qubits systems, states saturating the quantum speed limit tend to exhibit a small amount of local evolution, as measured by the fidelity between the initial and final single qubit states after the time τ required by the composite system to reach an orthogonal state. Consequently, a trade-off between the speed of global evolution and the amount of local evolution seems to be at work.

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Climate and society: passed climates, man era, future climate: essential reference marks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melieres, M.A.; Marechal, Ch.

2010-01-01

This teaching book takes stock of the climate change question which has moved beyond the simple scientific framework. Man will play a key role in the changes to come and the choices he is going to make will have a major impact on our environment and on our societies. The aim of this book is to draw out the essential marks from the multiple disciplines involved in the study of climate change in order to get a global overview of the question. Starting from simple mechanisms showing up the driving components of the climate equilibrium (like the greenhouse effect), the authors analyse the climates of the past, and describe the different causes of the actual climate change and its possible evolution in the future. The global nature of the climate warming in progress is demonstrated and some of its actual impacts on the environment are shown up. The importance of the anthropic influence in this change is underlined as well as the stakes of the mastery of our greenhouse gas emissions. (J.S.)

Global climate change impacts in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

2009-06-01

This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

Climate change and global warming potentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vate, J.F. van de

1996-01-01

Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

Past climate change and plant evolution in Western North America: a case study in Rosaceae.

Science.gov (United States)

Töpel, Mats; Antonelli, Alexandre; Yesson, Chris; Eriksen, Bente

2012-01-01

Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae) are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella) diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma), and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification.

Past climate change and plant evolution in Western North America: a case study in Rosaceae.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mats Töpel

Full Text Available Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma, and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification.

Paladin Enterprises: Monolithic particle physics models global climate.

CERN Multimedia

2002-01-01

Paladin Enterprises presents a monolithic particle model of the universe which will be used by them to build an economical fusion energy system. The model is an extension of the work done by James Clerk Maxwell. Essentially, gravity is unified with electro-magnetic forces and shown to be a product of a closed loop current system, i.e. a particle - monolithic or sub atomic. This discovery explains rapid global climate changes which are evident in the geological record and also provides an explanation for recent changes in the global climate.

Development directions of the global climate protection law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richter, Katharina

2014-01-01

The contribution on development directions of the global climate protection law covers the origination process of the Kyoto protocol, the precise form of the Kyoto protocol, the climate protection regime afterwards: Montreal 2005 - implementation-improvement-innovation, Nairobi 2006 - climatic change very close, Bali 2007 - roadmap, Posen 2008 - intermediate step, Copenhagen 2009 - stagnancy, Cancun 2010 - comeback, Durban 2011 - gleam of hope, Doha 2012 - minimum compromise, Warsaw 2013 - hope. The last chapter discusses the fundamental problems and perspectives of the climate protection laws.

Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jutro, P.R.

1991-01-01

Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

2018-01-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

@@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Heinke

2013-10-01

Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Global climate change: US-Japan cooperative leadership for environmental protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gray, J.E.; Fri, R.W.; Ikuta, Toyoaki; Guertin, D.L.; Tomitate, Takao.

1991-01-01

Over the past decade the Atlantic Council of the United States has engaged in continuing dialogue with the Committee for Energy Policy Promotion (Japan), The Institute of Energy Economics (Japan) and the Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (Japan) on a range of energy issues, including environmentally related considerations. Cooperation on environmental issues is the subject of this joint US-Japanese policy paper on global climate change. The Japanese and US participants who prepared this paper agreed on a number of conclusions, principles to guide action, and common recommendations on how best to address global climate change issues. The agreed upon principles include development of strategies in a long-term time frame (50-100 years); aggressive action to increase efficiency or reduce pollution when economically and technologically justified; utilization of market forces to the maximum extent possible; and assistance to developing countries in reducing pollution and increasing energy efficiency. The key recommendations include: The need to strengthen research to better understand global climate change, its implications and appropriate response strategies; The importance of involving as many nations as possible in formulating a framework agreement on global climate change; Recognition that, given economic and technical capabilities, each country should develop its own response strategies; Additional public and private sector efforts to increase the efficient use of resources and the use of alternate, less polluting energy resources when economically justified; Actions to address obstacles to technology cooperation with developing countries; and Increased flow of information to opinion leaders and the general public on global climate change

GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

OpenAIRE

Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

2015-01-01

Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

Cloud Compute for Global Climate Station Summaries

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, R.; May, B.; Cogbill, P.

2017-12-01

Global Climate Station Summaries are simple indicators of observational normals which include climatic data summarizations and frequency distributions. These typically are statistical analyses of station data over 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-year or longer time periods. The summaries are computed from the global surface hourly dataset. This dataset totaling over 500 gigabytes is comprised of 40 different types of weather observations with 20,000 stations worldwide. NCEI and the U.S. Navy developed these value added products in the form of hourly summaries from many of these observations. Enabling this compute functionality in the cloud is the focus of the project. An overview of approach and challenges associated with application transition to the cloud will be presented.

Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

1992-05-01

This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

NASA/JPL CLIMATE DAY: Middle and High School Students Get the Facts about Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Annie; Callery, Susan; Srinivasan, Margaret

2013-04-01

In 2007, NASA Headquarters requested that Earth Science outreach teams brainstorm new education and public outreach activities that would focus on the topic of global climate change. At the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Annie Richardson, outreach lead for the Ocean Surface Topography missions came up with the idea of a "Climate Day", capitalizing on the popular Earth Day name and events held annually throughout the world. JPL Climate Day would be an education and public outreach event whose objectives are to provide the latest scientific facts about global climate change - including the role the ocean plays in it, the contributions that NASA/JPL satellites and scientists make to the body of knowledge on the topic, and what we as individuals can do to promote global sustainability. The primary goal is that participants get this information in a fun and exciting environment, and walk away feeling empowered and capable of confidently engaging in the global climate debate. In March 2008, JPL and its partners held the first Climate Day event. 950 students from seven school districts heard from five scientists; visited exhibits, and participated in hands-on-activities. Pleased with the outcome, we organized JPL Climate Day 2010 at the Pasadena Convention Center in Pasadena, California, reaching more than 1700 students, teachers, and members of the general public over two days. Taking note of this successful model, NASA funded a multi-center, NASA Climate Day proposal in 2010 to expand Climate Day nation-wide. The NASA Climate Day proposal is a three-pronged project consisting of a cadre of Earth Ambassadors selected from among NASA-affiliated informal educators; a "Climate Day Kit" consisting of climate-related electronic resources available to the Earth Ambassadors; and NASA Climate Day events to be held in Earth Ambassador communities across the United States. NASA/JPL continues to host the original Climate Day event and in 2012 held its 4th event, at the Pasadena

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

2018-01-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

2018-01-17

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

(Un)certainty in climate change impacts on global energy consumption

Science.gov (United States)

van Ruijven, B. J.; De Cian, E.; Sue Wing, I.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to have an influence on the energy sector, especially on energy demand. For many locations, this change in energy demand is a balance between increase of demand for space cooling and a decrease of space heating demand. We perform a large-scale uncertainty analysis to characterize climate change risk on energy consumption as driven by climate and socioeconomic uncertainty. We combine a dynamic econometric model1 with multiple realizations of temperature projections from all 21 CMIP5 models (from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections2) under moderate (RCP4.5) and vigorous (RCP8.5) warming. Global spatial population projections for five SSPs are combined with GDP projections to construct scenarios for future energy demand driven by socioeconomic change. Between the climate models, we find a median global increase in climate-related energy demand of around 24% by 2050 under RCP8.5 with an interquartile range of 18-38%. Most climate models agree on increases in energy demand of more than 25% or 50% in tropical regions, the Southern USA and Southern China (see Figure). With respect to socioeconomic scenarios, we find wide variations between the SSPs for the number of people in low-income countries who are exposed to increases in energy demand. Figure attached: Number of models that agree on total climate-related energy consumption to increase or decrease by more than 0, 10, 25 or 50% by 2050 under RCP8.5 and SSP5 as result of the CMIP5 ensemble of temperature projections. References1. De Cian, E. & Sue Wing, I. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate. (FEEM, 2016). 2. Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16, 3309-3314 (2012).

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-04-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

2017-12-01

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

The emergence of global climate law

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan; Farber, Daniel A.; Peeters, Marjan

2016-01-01

As the chapters in this Encyclopedia demonstrate, climate law is a dynamic and multidisciplinary field, implicating many diverse fields of law at all levels from municipal planning through multinational treaties. The outlines of an emerging global law can be discerned, including shared principles

A dissenting view on global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linden, H.R.

1993-01-01

Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

Determining the effect of key climate drivers on global hydropower production

Science.gov (United States)

Galelli, S.; Ng, J. Y.; Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Accounting for about 17% of total global electrical power production, hydropower is arguably the world's main renewable energy source and a key asset to meet Paris climate agreements. A key component of hydropower production is water availability, which depends on both precipitation and multiple drivers of climate variability acting at different spatial and temporal scales. To understand how these drivers impact global hydropower production, we study the relation between four patterns of ocean-atmosphere climate variability (i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and monthly time series of electrical power production for over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs—obtained via simulation with a high-fidelity dam model forced with 20th century climate conditions. Notably significant relationships between electrical power productions and climate variability are found in many climate sensitive regions globally, including North and South America, East Asia, West Africa, and Europe. Coupled interactions from multiple, simultaneous climate drivers are also evaluated. Finally, we highlight the importance of using these climate drivers as an additional source of information within reservoir operating rules where the skillful predictability of inflow exists.

Evolution of the Toarcian (Early Jurassic) carbon-cycle and global climatic controls on local sedimentary processes (Cardigan Bay Basin, UK)

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Weimu; Ruhl, Micha; Jenkyns, Hugh C.; Leng, Melanie J.; Huggett, Jennifer M.; Minisini, Daniel; Ullmann, Clemens V.; Riding, James B.; Weijers, Johan W. H.; Storm, Marisa S.; Percival, Lawrence M. E.; Tosca, Nicholas J.; Idiz, Erdem F.; Tegelaar, Erik W.; Hesselbo, Stephen P.

2018-02-01

The late Early Jurassic Toarcian Stage represents the warmest interval of the Jurassic Period, with an abrupt rise in global temperatures of up to ∼7 °C in mid-latitudes at the onset of the early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE; ∼183 Ma). The T-OAE, which has been extensively studied in marine and continental successions from both hemispheres, was marked by the widespread expansion of anoxic and euxinic waters, geographically extensive deposition of organic-rich black shales, and climatic and environmental perturbations. Climatic and environmental processes following the T-OAE are, however, poorly known, largely due to a lack of study of stratigraphically well-constrained and complete sedimentary archives. Here, we present integrated geochemical and physical proxy data (high-resolution carbon-isotope data (δ13 C), bulk and molecular organic geochemistry, inorganic petrology, mineral characterisation, and major- and trace-element concentrations) from the biostratigraphically complete and expanded entire Toarcian succession in the Llanbedr (Mochras Farm) Borehole, Cardigan Bay Basin, Wales, UK. With these data, we (1) construct the first high-resolution biostratigraphically calibrated chemostratigraphic reference record for nearly the complete Toarcian Stage, (2) establish palaeoceanographic and depositional conditions in the Cardigan Bay Basin, (3) show that the T-OAE in the hemipelagic Cardigan Bay Basin was marked by the occurrence of gravity-flow deposits that were likely linked to globally enhanced sediment fluxes to continental margins and deeper marine (shelf) basins, and (4) explore how early Toarcian (tenuicostatum and serpentinum zones) siderite formation in the Cardigan Bay Basin may have been linked to low global oceanic sulphate concentrations and elevated supply of iron (Fe) from the hinterland, in response to climatically induced changes in hydrological cycling, global weathering rates and large-scale sulphide and evaporite deposition.

Bioclim Deliverable D3: global climatic features over the next million years and recommendation for specific situations to be considered

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The BIOCLIM project aims at assessing the possible long-term impacts of climate change on the safety of waste repositories in deep formations using climate simulations of the long-term climate in various European areas. One of the objectives of the project is to develop two strategies for representing sequential climatic changes to the geosphere-biosphere system for different sites over Europe, addressing the time scale of one million years. The results of this work will be interpreted in terms of global or regional changes of climate and of vegetation. The first strategy (hierarchical strategy) will use the full hierarchy of existing climate models (a climate model is a numerical simplified representation of the climate system behaviour and evolution). Simple models (LLN 2-D NH and threshold models; see the description here after) will simulate the overall long-term evolution of the global climate. Their results will then be used as inputs to more complex models (LMD climate models possibly coupled with vegetation models, either SECHIBA or ORCHIDE) and finally climate and vegetation cover will be determined for specific sites at specific times. A second strategy (integrated strategy) will consist in building an integrated climate model, which represents most of the physical mechanisms for studying long-term climatic variations. The results will then be interpreted on a regional scale. This deliverable is the first step of the hierarchical strategy. The purpose of this deliverable is to identify and justify some specific climatic situations amongst different long-term simulations that are of interest for assessing the safety of radioactive waste repository sites and that will be further studied with GCMs (General Circulation Model). The simple threshold (or multi-state) climate model is a modified version of the model from Paillard. It describes the time evolution of the ice volume and the CO 2 concentration. It has two distinct regimes (interglacial and glacial

2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jako Volschenk

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Tourism and its “midwife”, aviation, are transnational sectors exposed to global uncertainties. This scenario-building exercise considers a specific subset of these uncertainties, namely the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on long-haul tourism (LHT, with a 2050 horizon. The basic problematique is that unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions could have far-reaching impacts — either on the market for future growth of LHT, or the natural ecosystem on which tourism depends. Following an intuitive-logic approach to scenario-building, three meta-level scenarios that can be regarded as “possible” futures for the evolution of LHT are described. Two of these, i.e., the “grim reaper” and the “fallen angel” scenarios, are undesirable. The “green lantern” scenario represents the desired future. Long-haul tourist destinations should heed the early warning signals identified in the scenario narratives, and contribute towards realising the desired future. They should further guard against being passive victims if the feared scenarios materialise, by adapting, repositioning early upon reading the signposts, hedging against risks, and seizing new opportunities.

The climatic out of control. the climatic forcing; L'emballement climatique. Le forcage climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bony-Lena, S.; Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, LMD/IPSL, CNRS-UPMC, 75 - Paris (France); Acot, P. [Institut d' histoire et de philosophie des sciences et des techniques (IHPST), CNRS-Univ. Paris-1-ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Friedlingstein, P. [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Berger, A.; Loutre, M.L. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre; Jouzel, J. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 75 - Paris (France); Raynaud, D. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (UMR 5183), 38 - Saint Martin d' Heres cedex (France); Thuiller, W. [Universite Joseph-Fourier, Lab. d' Ecologie Alpine, CNRS-Univ. Grenoble-1, 38 (France); Le Treut, H. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique du CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Houssais, M.N. [Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat Experimentation et Approches Numerique (LOCEAN / IPSL), 75 - Paris (France); Duplessy, J.C. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE), 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France); Royer, J.F.; Douville, H. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, 31 - Toulouse (France); Barberousse, A. [Institut d' Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques, CNRS, ENS, 75 - Paris (France); Quinon, P

2007-03-15

The expert group on the climate evolution affirms that the global warming is unequivocal and that the human being is the main responsible. This document broaches the climatic change under many aspects: the principle, the historical aspect of the greenhouse effect, the GIEC, the carbon cycle, the paleo-climate theory, the antarctic ices and the impacts of the climatic change on the biodiversity, the simulations and the models, the climatic indicators and the climatic forcing by human activities. (A.L.B.)

Potential global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

Long-term evolution of the Campine area in Northern Belgium: past and expected future evolution of tectonics and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Craen, M.; Beerten, K.; Brassinnes, S.; Wouters, L.

2012-01-01

Document available in extended abstract form only. Disposal of radioactive waste in a geological repository involves the reliance, now and in the long-term future, on the geological and hydrogeological environment. In preparation of the safety and feasibility case 1 (SFC1), the long-term geodynamic evolution of Boom Clay and its geological environment in the Campine area in northern Belgium is studied. Time frames considered are the geological past and the future 1 million year. The idea is that the past long-term evolution can be extended to predict what might happen in the future. In this paper, we first focusses on the past long-term tectonic evolution of the Campine area, and make an extrapolation for the future 1 Ma. We then focus on past climate evolution, and similarly, an assessment of possible future climate conditions is made for the Campine area within the next 1 Ma. Another paper focusses on the combined effect of tectonics and climate on the evolution of the surface environment in the Campine area for the next 1 Ma, with respect to geomorphological, pedological and hydrological processes. During the Palaeozoic, the geodynamic evolution of the Campine area was mainly determined by tectonics. A large intermittently subsiding sedimentary basin existed in which large amounts of sediments were deposited, and which was protected by the Brabant Massif from major oro-genetic compressive processes. Palaeozoic sediments in the Campine Basin reach a maximum thickness of 4000 m. During Mesozoic and Cenozoic, its geodynamic evolution was the interactive result of plate tectonics, sea level changes and climate evolution. Further subsidence resulted in a thick sequence of sedimentary deposits. Mesozoic sediments are found throughout the Campine area while remains of Jurassic-Triassic sediments are found only in the central Roer Valley Graben in the east. The Cenozoic is characterised by a succession of sub-horizontal layers of Tertiary clays and sands and covered by

Global imprint of climate change on marine life

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

2013-01-01

Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available ...

Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, W.; Tian, H.

2015-12-01

New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

Climate finance, climate investors and assets for low emission development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Collins C Ngwakwe

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This research examines the relationship between climate finance, growth in climate investors and growth in climate assets for low emission development. It also evaluates the effect of climate policy evolution on the growth of climate investors and climate assets. Adopting a positivist paradigm, the paper makes use of a quantitative research approach and applies the causal and correlational research design. The paper made use of secondary data from the World Bank Carbon Finance Unit and from the Carbon Disclosure Project (ADP. The major objective was to examine the combined effect of climate finance and climate policy on the growth of carbon investors and carbon assets for the companies in the Carbon Disclosure Project which includes the 100 JSE companies. Findings from the test reveal that the combined effect of growth in climate finance and climate policy evolution has a significant relationship with growth in climate investors and climate assets. Given this result the paper proceeded to examine if the growth in climate finance has any correlation with South Africa’s emission reduction trend. Results however indicate that South Africa’s GHG emission trend does not correlate with climate finance availability; GHG emissions in South Africa have continued to soar despite a seeming growth in climate finance. The paper reasoned that the global climate finance might not be effectively available to corporates in South Africa at the expected level of financing to initiate the expected level of climate investment to effect a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This confirms literature assertions that global climate finance might not easily be accessible, at least to entities in developing countries. In conclusion, the paper suggests the establishment of a Southern African Climate Finance pool where the public and private sector can contribute and that such pool should be made easily available to carbon investors at a cheap rate with

A Unified Differential Evolution Algorithm for Global Optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qiang, Ji; Mitchell, Chad

2014-06-24

Abstract?In this paper, we propose a new unified differential evolution (uDE) algorithm for single objective global optimization. Instead of selecting among multiple mutation strategies as in the conventional differential evolution algorithm, this algorithm employs a single equation as the mutation strategy. It has the virtue of mathematical simplicity and also provides users the flexbility for broader exploration of different mutation strategies. Numerical tests using twelve basic unimodal and multimodal functions show promising performance of the proposed algorithm in comparison to convential differential evolution algorithms.

Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

2015-01-01

Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

2005-12-01

From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

Climate change impacts on global food security.

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-02

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

2002-01-01

Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

Icarus's discovery: Acting on global climate change in the face of uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brooks, D.G.; Maracas, K.B.; Hayslip, R.M.

1994-01-01

The mythological character Icarus had the misfortune of learning the consequences of his decision to fly too near the sun at the same time he employed his decision. Although Daedalus tried to reduce the uncertainties of his son's decision by warning Icarus of the possible outcome, Icarus had no empirical knowledge of what would actually happen until his waxen wings melted and he fell to the sea. Like Icarus, man has no empirical knowledge or conclusive evidence today of the possible effects of global climate change. And though the consequences of policy decisions toward global climate change may not be as catastrophic as falling into the sea, the social and economic impacts of those decisions will be substantial. There are broad uncertainties related to the scientific and ecological aspects of global climate change. But clearly the ''politics'' of global climate change issues are moving at a faster rate than the science. There is a public outcry for action now, in the face of uncertainty. This paper profiles a case study of a southwestern utility's use of multi-attribute preference theory to reduce uncertainties and analyze its options for addressing global climate change issues

Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

2018-04-01

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2011-02-15

Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

Global climate changes in the past and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schoenwiese, C.D.

1993-01-01

Is man changing the climate of the Earth, and if so, is this at a global scale? This question with all its reunifications, usually referred to under the heading ''greenhouse effect'', deservedly stands in the focus of public attention. Besides fears and warnings reaching even to disaster scenarios there have recently also been sceptical voices pointing out the imponderabilities of filtering anthropogenic effects out of the climate data. This uncertainty is not surprising to the expert, as natural changes of climate always have, and will, superimpose anthropogenic influences. Therefore, it is not enough to peer into the future with the help of intricate climate models. Diagnostic analysis of the past climate is at least just as important. (orig.) [de

Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

2008-01-01

Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

Climate Services Information System Activities in Support of The Global Framework for Climate Services Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Klein-Tank, A.; Kolli, R. K.; Hechler, P.; Dilley, M.; Ceron, J. P.; Goodess, C.

2017-12-01

The WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl) supports the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) with a particular focus on the Climate Services Information System (CSIS), which is the core operational component of GFCS at the global, regional, and national level. CSIS is designed for producing, packaging and operationally delivering authoritative climate information data and products through appropriate operational systems, practices, data exchange, technical standards, authentication, communication, and product delivery. Its functions include climate analysis and monitoring, assessment and attribution, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal), and projection (centennial scale) as well as tailoring the associated products tUEAo suit user requirements. A central, enabling piece of implementation of CSIS is a Climate Services Toolkit (CST). In its development phase, CST exists as a prototype (www.wmo.int/cst) as a compilation of tools for generating tailored data and products for decision-making, with a special focus on national requirements in developing countries. WMO provides a server to house the CST prototype as well as support operations and maintenance. WMO members provide technical expertise and other in-kind support, including leadership of the CSIS development team. Several recent WMO events have helped with the deployment of CST within the eight countries that have been recognized by GFCS as illustrative for developing their climate services at national levels. Currently these countries are developing climate services projects focusing service development and delivery for selected economic sectors, such as for health, agriculture, energy, water resources, and hydrometeorological disaster risk reduction. These countries are working together with their respective WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), which provide technical assistance with implementation of climate services projects at the country level and facilitate development of

Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

2014-12-01

The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

Advancement of the climate dual strategy. New concepts for a globally effective climate protection; Weiterentwicklung der baden-wuerttembergischen Klimadoppelstrategie. Neue Konzepte fuer einen global wirksamen Klimaschutz

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-10-15

The Baden-Wuerttemberg Council on Sustainable Development (Stuttgart, Federal Republic of Germany) presents a climate expert report with new concepts for a globally effective climate protection. First of all, the development of the global emissions of carbon dioxide since 1990 is described. The development of the global emissions of carbon dioxide up to 2050 is forecasted. Four general criteria (effectiveness, efficiency, fairness and acceptance) for a comparative evaluation of climate protection concepts are introduced. A proposal for solution on the basis of a globally effective cap-and-trade system as well as an identical scenario as an alternative with respect to the implementation are described. This alternative scenario is based on a cap-and-trade system but it develops on the basis of national self-commitment in accordance with an incentive and sanctionative system. Both implementation proposals are compared. Recommendations of the national government Baden-Wuerttemberg are given.

Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph. Buongiorno

2016-01-01

This paper explored the potential long-term effects of a warming climate on the global wood sector, based on Way and Oren's synthesis (Tree Physiology 30,669-688) indicating positive responses of tree growth to higher temperature in boreal and temperative climates, and negative responses in the topics. Changes in forest productivity were introduced in the Global...

Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

Climate change at the coast: from global to local

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watkinson, A.R.

2009-01-01

The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

Toward 10-km mesh global climate simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ohfuchi, W.; Enomoto, T.; Takaya, K.; Yoshioka, M. K.

2002-12-01

An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that runs very efficiently on the Earth Simulator (ES) was developed. The ES is a gigantic vector-parallel computer with the peak performance of 40 Tflops. The AGCM, named AFES (AGCM for ES), was based on the version 5.4.02 of an AGCM developed jointly by the Center for Climate System Research, the University of Tokyo and the Japanese National Institute for Environmental Sciences. The AFES was, however, totally rewritten in FORTRAN90 and MPI while the original AGCM was written in FORTRAN77 and not capable of parallel computing. The AFES achieved 26 Tflops (about 65 % of the peak performance of the ES) at resolution of T1279L96 (10-km horizontal resolution and 500-m vertical resolution in middle troposphere to lower stratosphere). Some results of 10- to 20-day global simulations will be presented. At this moment, only short-term simulations are possible due to data storage limitation. As ten tera flops computing is achieved, peta byte data storage are necessary to conduct climate-type simulations at this super-high resolution global simulations. Some possibilities for future research topics in global super-high resolution climate simulations will be discussed. Some target topics are mesoscale structures and self-organization of the Baiu-Meiyu front over Japan, cyclogenecsis over the North Pacific and typhoons around the Japan area. Also improvement in local precipitation with increasing horizontal resolution will be demonstrated.

NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

2009-12-01

This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Science.gov (United States)

Fortini, Lucas B.; Dye, Kaipo

2017-01-01

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also

The Leicester AATSR Global Analyser (LAGA) - Giving Young Students the Opportunity to Examine Space Observations of Global Climate-Related Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Llewellyn-Jones, David; Good, Simon; Corlett, Gary

A pc-based analysis package has been developed, for the dual purposes of, firstly, providing ‘quick-look' capability to research workers inspecting long time-series of global satellite datasets of Sea-surface Temperature (SST); and, secondly, providing an introduction for students, either undergraduates, or advanced high-school students to the characteristics of commonly used analysis techniques for large geophysical data-sets from satellites. Students can also gain insight into the behaviour of some basic climate-related large-scale or global processes. The package gives students immediate access to up to 16 years of continuous global SST data, mainly from the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer, currently flying on ESA's Envisat satellite. The data are available and are presented in the form of monthly averages and spatial averaged to half-degree or one-sixth degree longitude-latitude grids. There are simple button-operated facilities for defining and calculating box-averages; producing time-series of such averages; defining and displaying transects and their evolution over time; and the examination anomalous behaviour by displaying the difference between observed values and values derived from climatological means. By using these facilities a student rapidly gains familiarity with such processes as annual variability, the El Nĩo effect, as well as major current systems n such as the Gulf Stream and other climatically important phenomena. In fact, the student is given immediate insights into the basic methods of examining geophysical data in a research context, without needing to acquire special analysis skills are go trough lengthy data retrieval and preparation procedures which are more generally required, as precursors to serious investigation, in the research laboratory. This software package, called the Leicester AAATSR Global Analyser (LAGA), is written in a well-known and widely used analysis language and the package can be run by using software

Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the "bird-cage" evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia).

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Margaret E K; Smith, Stephen A; Flynn, Rachel S; Donoghue, Michael J

2009-02-01

We integrate climatic niche models and dated phylogenies to characterize the evolution of climatic niches in Oenothera sections Anogra and Kleinia (Onagraceae), and from that we make inferences on diversification in relation to climate. The evolution of climatic tolerances in Anogra + Kleinia has been heterogeneous, across phylogenetic groups and across different dimensions of climate. All the extant taxa occur in semiarid to arid conditions (annual precipitation of 10.1-49.1 cm and high temperatures in the warmest month of 28.5 degrees-40.1 degrees C), but there is striking variation among taxa in their climatic tolerances, especially temperature (minimum temperatures in the coldest month of -14.0 degrees to 5.3 degrees C) and summer versus winter precipitation (precipitation in the warmest quarter of 0.6-19.4 cm). Climatic disparity is especially pronounced in two subclades (californica, deltoides) that radiated in the southwestern United States and California, apparently including both divergent and convergent evolution of climatic tolerances. This niche evolution is remarkable, given the probable timescale of the radiation (approximately 1 million years). We suggest that the spatiotemporal climatic heterogeneity of western North America has served as a driver of diversification. Our data are also consistent with Axelrod's hypothesis that the spread of arid conditions in western North America stimulated diversification of arid-adapted lineages.

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

2003-01-01

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flohn, H

1981-01-01

The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

Global and Local Discourses on Climate Change: A Perspective from the Concept of Embeddedness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jailab Kumar Rai

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change has been becoming a major order of business of all including researchers and academics. This is known that global, national and local organizations, institutions and even the individuals are partaking into the issues with their own perspectives and skills of negotiations. Despite the series of international efforts and attempts, there are also a series of national concerns, efforts and attempts in combating against the effects of global climate change. This paper is an attempt to draw on the overview of contexts and concerns of international communities for combating global climate change and its discursive influence in national policy discourses. Moreover, the paper attempts to assess the local socio-cultural discourses and dynamics of climate change in relation to global and national discourses. Finally the paper highlights on how global and local climate change knowledge networks and epistemic communities either from political processes or the socio-economic fabrics are interrelated and determinant to each other. Keywords: climate change; discourses; embeddeness; dynamics; global; local DOI: 10.3126/dsaj.v4i0.4518 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol.4 2010 pp.143-180

Session B4 Management for sustainable use — Global climate ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The IPCC Third Assessment Report confirms that the evidence for global climate change is now stronger than ever. While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if ...

EVOLUTIONS IN GLOBAL AUTOMOBILES INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viorel Pop

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper is a brief overview of the evolution of the global automotive industry during the 20th century, with reference to the main manufacturers, oil crises of 1970-1980, and also the global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008. The analyzed period covers the rise of the Asian Continent, beginning with Japan, then South Korea and more recently the emerging countries: China and India. What was predicted 20-25 years ago, became reality: Asia becomes the economic centre of the world, surpassing unexpectedly fast even the Euro-Atlantic area. Regarding Romania, the revival delay of the automobiles industry, led to the loss of the trucks and bus industry, and after a much awaited rehabilitation of car production, this has stuck now at an unsatisfactory level.

The petroleum industry's response to climate change: The role of the IPIECA Global Climate Change Working Group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemlin, J.S.; Graham Bryce, I.

1994-01-01

IPIECA formed the Global Climate Change Working Group in 1988 to coordinate members' efforts to understand the global climate change issue, to promote support for education and research, and to serve as the focus for engaging with international activities. The working group has sponsored a number of activities, including seminars and workshops. The Lisbon Experts Workshop on Socio-Economic Assessment of Climate Change in 1993 represents the most recent IPIECA forum for interaction between industry experts and those involved in the production of the IPCC 1995 Second Assessment Report. This workshop is described in the article. (author)

Energy [R]evolution 2008-a sustainable world energy perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewitt, Wolfram; Teske, Sven; Simon, Sonja; Pregger, Thomas; Graus, Wina; Blomen, Eliane; Schmid, Stephan; Schaefer, Oliver

2009-01-01

The Energy [R]evolution 2008 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2007. It takes up recent trends in global socio-economic developments, and analyses to which extent they affect chances for achieving global climate protection targets. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to 10 Gt per year in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 deg. C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A review of sector and region specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding energy supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The Energy [R]evolution scenario shows that renewable energy can provide more than half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, whilst at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%.

Climate's evolution and the industrial revolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the evolution of climate change and the role that man has played in causing these fluctuations. The chief cause has been the ever-increasing use of fossil fuels. A comparison is made of the amount of energy used to earn each dollar of gross national product (GNP) in industrialized nations. The use of fossil fuels in developing countries is expected to rise as their populations increase and they shift from vegetation-derived fuels to fossil fuels

Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

2009-03-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

Science.gov (United States)

Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

Global Air Quality and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.;

Prehistoric land use and Neolithisation in Europe in the context of regional climate events

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmen, C.; Wirtz, K. W.; Gronenborn, D.

2009-04-01

We present a simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit model of pre-Bronze age socio-technological change, called the Global Land Use and Technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). The socio-technological realm is described by three characteristic traits: available technology, subsistence style ratio, and economic diversity. Human population and culture develop in the context of global paleoclimate and regional paleoclimate events. Global paleoclimate is derived from CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model anomalies superimposed on the IIASA temperature and precipitation database. Regional a forcing is provided by abrupt climate deteriorations from a compilation of 138 long-term high-resolution climate proxy time series from mostly terrestrial and near-shore archives. The GLUES simulator provides for a novel way to explore the interplay between climate, climate change, and cultural evolution both on the Holocene timescale as well as for short-term extreme event periods. We sucessfully simulate the migration of people and the diffusion of Neolithic technology from the Near East into Europe in the period 12000-4000 a BP. We find good agreement with recent archeological compilations of Western Eurasian Neolithic sites. No causal relationship between climate events and cultural evolution could be identified, but the speed of cultural development is found to be modulated by the frequency of climate events. From the demographic evolution and regional ressource consumption, we estimate regional land use change and prehistoric greenhouse gas emissions.

Global climate change adaptation: examples from Russian boreal forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krankina, O.N.; Dixon, R.K.; Kirilenko, A.P.; Kobak, K.I.

1997-01-01

The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaption measures for them: (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation

The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

Science.gov (United States)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2013-04-01

The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

Experts' workshop on critical issues in the science of global climate change. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

A summary is given of the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association's Workshop on 'Critical issues in the science of global climate change' held in 1994. The topics of the panel sessions were (1) modelling global climate change: capabilities and limitations; (2)the physics and chemistry of greenhouse gas concentrations; (3) other factors in predicting climate change; and (4) ecosystem response. (UK)

Global climate change and California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knox, J.B.; Scheuring, A.F.

1991-01-01

In the fall of 1988 the University of California organized a new public-service initiative on global climate change in response to inquiries and requests from members of Congress and the Department of Energy (DOE). This new systemwide initiative involved all of the University of California campuses and the University's three national laboratories at Berkeley, Los Alamos, and Livermore. The goal of this Greenhouse Initiative was to focus the multidisciplinary resources of the UC campuses and the team-oriented research capabilities of the laboratories on the prospect of global warming and its associated effects on the planet and its nations. In consultation with the DOE, the organizers proposed a series of workshops to focus University of California research resources on the issue of global warming, to contribute to the congressionally mandated DOE studies on options for the US to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by the year 2000, and to begin building a long-term research base contributing to an improved understanding of global change in all of its complexity and diverse discipline implications. This volume contains papers from the first of these workshops. Individual papers are processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

The Global Climate Dashboard: a Software Interface to Stream Comprehensive Climate Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gardiner, N.; Phillips, M.; NOAA Climate Portal Dashboard

2011-12-01

The Global Climate Dashboard is an integral component of NOAA's web portal to climate data, services, and value-added content for decision-makers, teachers, and the science-attentive public (www.clmate.gov). The dashboard provides a rapid view of observational data that demonstrate climate change and variability, as well as outputs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 3, which was built to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment. The data shown in the dashboard therefore span a range of climate science disciplines with applications that serve audiences with diverse needs. The dashboard is designed with reusable software components that allow it to be implemented incrementally on a wide range of platforms including desktops, tablet devices, and mobile phones. The underlying software components support live streaming of data and provide a way of encapsulating graph sytles and other presentation details into a device-independent standard format that results in a common visual look and feel across all platforms. Here we describe the pedagogical objectives, technical implementation, and the deployment of the dashboard through climate.gov and partner web sites and describe plans to develop a mobile application using the same framework.

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2013-01-01

This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

KAUST Repository

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

2015-09-23

Explosive volcanic eruptions are magnificent events that in many ways affect the Earth\\'s natural processes and climate. They cause sporadic perturbations of the planet\\'s energy balance, activating complex climate feedbacks and providing unique opportunities to better quantify those processes. We know that explosive eruptions cause cooling in the atmosphere for a few years, but we have just recently realized that volcanic signals can be seen in the subsurface ocean for decades. The volcanic forcing of the previous two centuries offsets the ocean heat uptake and diminishes global warming by about 30%. The explosive volcanism of the twenty-first century is unlikely to either cause any significant climate signal or to delay the pace of global warming. The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial aerosol layer in the lower stratosphere to counteract global warming. In this chapter we aim to discuss these recently discovered volcanic effects and specifically pay attention to how we can learn about the hidden Earth-system mechanisms activated by explosive volcanic eruptions. To demonstrate these effects we use our own model results when possible along with available observations, as well as review closely related recent publications.

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

Evolution of extreme rainfall in France with a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Veysseire, Jean-Michel; Gouget, Viviane; Neppel, Luc; Tramblay, Yves; Carreau, Julie

2015-01-01

This paper focuses a synthesis of the works led within the framework of the French project ANR/Extraflo on the evolution of the daily (and infra daily) extreme rainfall in France. An important dataset of more than 900 series was used. It was shown that a majority of series presented a not significant upward trend in particular in Mediterranean area, in relation with various recent exceptional extreme events. An interesting way to characterize this evolution consists in identifying climatic co-variables associated to heavy rainfall events (weather patterns, average temperatures, flow of humidity) and in taking into account them with a non stationary POT model. The application of this method with climatic projections under scenario A2 from IPCC could lead to a possible increase on extreme precipitation quantiles on the horizon 2070. (authors)

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Lucio, Filipe

2015-04-01

The World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva 2009) unanimously decided to establish the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), a UN-led initiative spearheaded by WMO to guide the development and application of science-based climate information and services in support of decision-making in climate sensitive sectors. By promoting science-based decision-making, the GFCS is empowering governments, communities and companies to build climate resilience, reduce vulnerabilities and adapt to impacts. The initial priority areas of GFCS are Agriculture and Food Security; Disaster Risk Reduction; Health; and Water Resources. The implementation of GFCS is well underway with a governance structure now fully established. The governance structure of GFCS includes the Partner Advisory Committee (PAC), which is GFCS's stakeholder engagement mechanism. The membership of the PAC allows for a broad participation of stakeholders. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Commission (EC), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), the Global Water Partnership (GWP), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), the World Food Programme (WFP) and WMO have already joined the PAC. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean, Asia and Pacific Small Islands Developing States through flagship projects and activities in the four priority areas of GFCS to enable the development of a Proof of Concept. The focus at national level is on strengthening institutional capacities needed for development of capacities for co-design and co-production of climate services and their application in support of decision-making in climate sensitive

The rise and fall of the global climate polity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Corry, Olaf

2013-01-01

Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited to engine......Introduction Not so long ago the idea that a global climate polity could exist would have seemed bizarre or simply nonsensical. ‘The climate’ was effectively just patterns of weather over time. Though there is a long history of attempts at affecting weather, these were generally limited...... to engineering local and temporary effects on rainfall, and historically many schemes ended in failure or even ridicule (Fleming 2012). Few if any people seriously entertained the idea that people, states, corporations and international organizations would mobilize and operate giant monitoring and regulatory...... systems in concerted attempts to change (or preserve) the chemical composition of the global atmosphere. This raises not only the question of how the idea of governing something like the climate so rapidly became a matter of course but also how sure we can be that it will remain so in, for example...

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

Global Ocean Sedimentation Patterns: Plate Tectonic History Versus Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Goswami, A.; Reynolds, E.; Olson, P.; Hinnov, L. A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2014-12-01

Global sediment data (Whittaker et al., 2013) and carbonate content data (Archer, 1996) allows examination of ocean sedimentation evolution with respect to age of the underlying ocean crust (Müller et al., 2008). From these data, we construct time series of ocean sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean basins for the past 120 Ma. These time series are unique to each basin and reflect an integrated response to plate tectonics and climate change. The goal is to parameterize ocean sedimentation tied to crustal age for paleoclimate studies. For each basin, total sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate from 0.1 x 0.1 degree cells are binned according to basement crustal age; area-corrected moments (mean, variance, etc.) are calculated for each bin. Segmented linear fits identify trends in present-day carbonate deposition rates and changes in ocean sedimentation from 0 to 120 Ma. In the North and South Atlantic and Indian oceans, mean sediment thickness versus crustal age is well represented by three linear segments, with the slope of each segment increasing with increasing crustal age. However, the transition age between linear segments varies among the three basins. In contrast, mean sediment thickness in the North and South Pacific oceans are numerically smaller and well represented by two linear segments with slopes that decrease with increasing crustal age. These opposing trends are more consistent with the plate tectonic history of each basin being the controlling factor in sedimentation rates, rather than climate change. Unlike total sediment thickness, carbonate deposition rates decrease smoothly with crustal age in all basins, with the primary controls being ocean chemistry and water column depth.References: Archer, D., 1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 159-174.Müller, R.D., et al., 2008, Science, 319, 1357-1362.Whittaker, J., et al., 2013, Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst. DOI: 10.1002/ggge.20181

Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

2016-04-01

Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

Phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism and evolution of climatic suitability in Neotropical Angraecinae (Vandeae, Orchidaceae) and their closest African relatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolanowska, Marta; Grochocka, Elżbieta; Konowalik, Kamil

2017-01-01

In the present study we investigate the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) within the American species of angraecoid orchids ( Campylocentrum and Dendrophylax ) and their closest relatives in the Old World ( Angraecum ) using ecological niche modelling (ENM). The predicted niche occupancy profiles were matched with the outcomes of previous phylogenetic studies to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within the orchid group studied and evaluate the role of niche differentiation in the speciation of Angraecinae. No correlation between preferred niches and taxonomic relationships within the orchid group studied was revealed. The climatic suitability of the majority of the species overlapped each other, either fully or partially. This pattern is also present in the species of other orchid genera. Our research confirms a significant level of PNC in Orchidaceae, even within taxa exhibiting a transatlantic disjunction. The analysis of the evolution of climatic suitability indicated that the adaptation to various climatic conditions is not a factor that has driven speciation within orchids studied.

Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

2007-01-01

Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale

Climate Change, Global Food Markets, and Urban Unrest

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-01

Francis Gavin 512-471-6267 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) Standard Form 298 (Rev 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 - Climate Change, Global Food...Russia led then-President Dmitry Medvedev to impose export restrictions on wheat, barley, and rye . Food security is fundamental to human security. Prior...how much food is grown and where it is grown. Second, climate change will increase the frequency of localized crop failures due to more frequent

Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

2009-12-01

The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, FA

2011-12-01

Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Peter L.

2009-01-01

Global climate change, prior to the 20th century, appears to have been initiated primarily by major changes in volcanic activity. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is the most voluminous chemically active gas emitted by volcanoes and is readily oxidized to sulfuric acid normally within weeks. But trace amounts of SO 2 exert significant influence on climate. All major historic volcanic eruptions have formed sulfuric acid aerosols in the lower stratosphere that cooled the earth's surface ∼ 0.5 o C for typically three years. While such events are currently happening once every 80 years, there are times in geologic history when they occurred every few to a dozen years. These were times when the earth was cooled incrementally into major ice ages. There have also been two dozen times during the past 46,000 years when major volcanic eruptions occurred every year or two or even several times per year for decades. Each of these times was contemporaneous with very rapid global warming. Large volumes of SO 2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in very rapid warming. Such warming and associated acid rain becomes extreme when millions of cubic kilometers of basalt are erupted in much less than one million years. These are the times of the greatest mass extinctions. When major volcanic eruptions do not occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere, global cooling and decadal drought. Prior to the 20th century, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) followed increases in temperature initiated by changes in SO 2 . By 1962, man burning fossil fuels was adding SO 2 to the atmosphere at a rate equivalent to one 'large' volcanic eruption each 1.7 years. Global temperatures increased slowly from 1890 to 1950 as anthropogenic sulfur increased slowly. Global temperatures increased more rapidly after 1950 as the rate of anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased. By

Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Brigham, L. W.

2011-12-01

Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-12-31

The brochure gives a summary of global climate during 1996, from information provided by the Climate Prediction Center in the United States with inputs from other climate centres around the world. The 1997 global mean surface temperature anomaly, 0.43{degree}C above the 1961-90 base-period mean temperature, was the highest since records began in 1860. One major contributing factor was the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode with temperatures in the tropical belt being the second highest in the historical record. ENSO resulted in increased rainfall in the central and eastern aquatorical pacific. In Indonesia, low rainfall from March to December and drought conditions by July and August contributed to uncontrolled wildfires in rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo resulting in widespread smoke pollution. The booklet is provided through the Climate Change Detection Project of the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP). 10 figs.

A review of Thailand's strategies for global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boonchalermkit, S.

1994-01-01

Thailand is greatly concerned about global climate change, which is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and the release of chlorofluorocarbons. The country itself is not currently a major contributor to global climate change. However, as Thailand's economy expands and its burning of fossil fuels increases, the country's contribution to global climate change could increase. Thailand's use of primary energy supplies grew at an average rate of 13.4 percent per year in the period 1985 to 1990. The rapid, sustained growth was due to the overall pace of growth in the economy and the expansion of industrial, construction, and transportation activities. The primary energy demand was approximately 31,600 kilotons of oil equivalent (KTOE) in 1990. The transportation sector accounted for the largest proportion of energy demand at 30 percent. Within the next 15 years, the power sector is expected to overtake the transportation sector as the largest consumer of energy. Petroleum is currently the predominant source of energy in Thailand, accounting for 56 percent of the primary energy demand. Thailand recognizes that it has an important part to play in finding solutions to minimizing emissions of greenhouse gases and identifying viable response strategies. Thus, in this paper the authors will present several policy strategies relevant to climate change in Thailand and discuss how they have been implemented and enforced. Policies concerning forestry, energy, and environment are reviewed in detail in this paper

Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

2009-12-01

Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

Energy [R]evolution 2010-a sustainable world energy outlook

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teske, S.; Pregger, T.; Simon, S.; Naegler, T.; Graus, W.H.J.; Lins, C.

2011-01-01

The Energy [R]evolution 2010 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios published in 2007 and 2008. It takes up recent trends in global energy demand and production and analyses to which extent this affects chances for achieving climate protection targets. The main target is to

The Antarctic - the wild card in the global climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oesterhus, Svein; Gammelsroed, Tor; Foldvik, Arne; Noest, Ole Anders

1999-01-01

The overview gives an account of studies of snowfall, ice melting and formation and water flow patterns in the Antarctic during the present global warming period. It also gives a survey of the ice area in the region. The sea water warming is dramatic and a large floating glacier seems to be decomposing which is disrupting the oceanographic and ecological relations in the region and globally and is significantly influencing the global climate

Bringing a Realistic Global Climate Modeling Experience to a Broader Audience

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Zhou, J.

2010-12-01

EdGCM, the Educational Global Climate Model, was developed with the goal of helping students learn about climate change and climate modeling by giving them the ability to run a genuine NASA global climate model (GCM) on a desktop computer. Since EdGCM was first publicly released in January 2005, tens of thousands of users on seven continents have downloaded the software. EdGCM has been utilized by climate science educators from middle school through graduate school levels, and on occasion even by researchers who otherwise do not have ready access to climate model at national labs in the U.S. and elsewhere. The EdGCM software is designed to walk users through the same process a climate scientist would use in designing and running simulations, and analyzing and visualizing GCM output. Although the current interface design gives users a clear view of some of the complexities involved in using a climate model, it can be daunting for users whose main focus is on climate science rather than modeling per se. As part of the work funded by NASA’s Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) program, we will begin modifications to the user interface that will improve the accessibility of EdGCM to a wider array of users, especially at the middle school and high school levels, by: 1) Developing an automated approach (a “wizard”) to simplify the user experience in setting up new climate simulations; 2) Produce a catalog of “rediscovery experiments” that allow users to reproduce published climate model results, and in some cases compare model projections to real world data; and 3) Enhance distance learning and online learning opportunities through the development of a web-based interface. The prototypes for these modifications will then be presented to educators belonging to an EdGCM Users Group for feedback, so that we can further refine the EdGCM software, and thus deliver the tools and materials educators want and need across a wider range of learning environments.

Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Brien, Karen; Aandahl, Guro; Tompkins, Heather [CICERO, Oslo (NO)] (and others)

2004-12-01

There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research community that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local- level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region, and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (Author)

Health effects of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghauri, B.; Salam, M.; Mirza I.

1992-01-01

This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

Developing country finance in a post-2020 global climate agreement

Science.gov (United States)

Hannam, Phillip M.; Liao, Zhenliang; Davis, Steven J.; Oppenheimer, Michael

2015-11-01

A central task for negotiators of the post-2020 global climate agreement is to construct a finance regime that supports low-carbon development in developing economies. As power sector investments between developing countries grow, the climate finance regime should incentivize the decarbonization of these major sources of finance by integrating them as a complement to the commitments of developed nations. The emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, South-South Cooperation Fund and other nascent institutions reveal the fissures that exist in rules and norms surrounding international finance in the power sector. Structuring the climate agreement in Paris to credit qualified finance from the developing world could have several advantages, including: (1) encouraging low-carbon cooperation between developing countries; (2) incentivizing emerging investors to prefer low-carbon investments; and (3) enabling more cost-effective attainment of national and global climate objectives. Failure to coordinate on standards now could hinder low-carbon development in the decades to come.

Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

Science.gov (United States)

Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

2012-10-01

Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Tropical forest policies for the global climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Groot, W.T.; Kamminga, E.M.

1995-01-01

A summary is given of the approach and findings of the NRP project 'Local Actors and Global Tree Cover Policies'. The aim of this project was to identify the most effective and efficient options for global climate policies focusing on the tropical forest. Tropical deforestation is a process with very complex and variable causes. In the project's conclusions, therefore, much care has been given to arrive at a coherent image of what really counts most in the myriad of factors, actors, policy levels and policy options. 5 refs

Climate diplomacy. The stakes of a climate international regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine; Wemaere, Matthieu

2010-01-01

Written in 2010, just after the Copenhagen summit, by a specialist of international law on environment and an environment scientist, this book explores the avenues of the climate diplomacy (from Kyoto to Copenhagen) to meet the challenges of global climatic change, explains the implications of present and future negotiations, and discusses the prospects for an environmental international governance as the Rio+20 summit is approaching. The titles of the four chapters of this book are: the climate international regime, a step by step construction; guidelines and implementation of the Kyoto protocol; Post-2012 negotiations; European Union's strategy and policy against climatic change (quotas, emission trading, etc.). As a conclusion, the authors ask the question about the evolution of the climate international approach, pointing the kickback encountered at Copenhagen: now, what will come after?

Lateral variations in vegetation in the Himalaya since the Miocene and implications for climate evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Vögeli, Natalie; Najman, Yani; van der Beek, Peter; Huyghe, Pascale; Wynn, Peter M.; Govin, Gwladys; van der Veen, Iris; Sachse, Dirk

2017-08-01

The Himalaya has a major influence on global and regional climate, in particular on the Asian monsoon system. The foreland basin of the Himalaya contains a record of tectonics and paleoclimate since the Miocene. Previous work on the evolution of vegetation and climate has focused on the central and western Himalaya, where a shift from C3 to C4 vegetation has been observed at ∼7 Ma and linked to increased seasonality, but the climatic evolution of the eastern part of the orogen is less well understood. In order to track vegetation as a marker of monsoon intensity and seasonality, we analyzed δ13 C and δ18 O values of soil carbonate and associated δ13 C values of bulk organic carbon from previously dated sedimentary sections exposing the syn-orogenic detrital Dharamsala and Siwalik Groups in the west, and, for the first time, the Siwalik Group in the east of the Himalayan foreland basin. Sedimentary records span from 20 to 1 Myr in the west (Joginder Nagar, Jawalamukhi, and Haripur Kolar sections) and from 13 to 1 Myr in the east (Kameng section), respectively. The presence of soil carbonate in the west and its absence in the east is a first indication of long-term lateral climatic variation, as soil carbonate requires seasonally arid conditions to develop. δ13 C values in soil carbonate show a shift from around -10‰ to -2‰ at ∼7 Ma in the west, which is confirmed by δ13 C analyses on bulk organic carbon that show a shift from around -23‰ to -19‰ at the same time. Such a shift in isotopic values is likely to be associated with a change from C3 to C4 vegetation. In contrast, δ13 C values of bulk organic carbon remain at ∼ - 23 ‰ in the east. Thus, our data show that the current east-west variation in climate was established at 7 Ma. We propose that the regional change towards a more seasonal climate in the west is linked to a decrease of the influence of the Westerlies, delivering less winter precipitation to the western Himalaya, while the east

The climate: variabilities and future evolution. Press breakfast 8 november 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciais, Ph.; Jouzel, J.; Le Treut, H.

2000-11-01

In the framework of CEA Press conference for the public information, this paper presents the CEA/CNRS laboratories working in the climatology domain. The main researches themes are the climate sciences, the biogeochemical cycles, the geo-markers and the climate simulation. For the simulation of the greenhouse gases effect on the climate, it is necessary to better know the past climate. One of the method is the analysis of ice samples. A presentation of the studies on the future climate simulation is proposed with information on the global climate warming and the consequences. (A.L.B.)

Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

2012-01-01

The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucas B. Fortini

2017-07-01

Full Text Available For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

2012-05-27

Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

2017-11-01

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities

Science.gov (United States)

Parey, Sylvie; Bernardara, Pietro; Donat, Markus G.

2010-05-01

Climate change is underway and even if mitigation measures are successfully implemented, societies will have to adapt to new climatic conditions in the near future and further. This session had been proposed to gather different studies dedicated to the climate change impact on some human activities, and discuss the possible ways of adaptation. Climate change is often presented in terms of global mean temperature evolutions, but what is important for adaptation concerns the local evolutions, and rather of the variability and extremes than of the mean of the involved meteorological parameters. In the session, studies and applications will be presented, covering different economical and industrial activities, such as energy production, (re-) insurance and risk assessment, water management or tourism.

A model study of the effect of climate and sea-level change on the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maris, M. N. A.; Van Wessem, J. M.; Van De Berg, W. J.; De Boer, B.; Oerlemans, J.

2014-01-01

Due to a scarcity of observations and its long memory of uncertain past climate, the Antarctic Ice Sheet remains a largely unknown factor in the prediction of global sea level change. As the history of the ice sheet plays a key role in its future evolution, in this study we model the Antarctic Ice

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae

2017-12-01

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2018-04-01

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

Global climate change and human health: Information needs, research priorities, and strategic considerations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farrell, M.P.; Kanciruk, P. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); O' Hara, F.M. Jr. (O' Hara (Fred M., Jr.), Oak Ridge, TN (USA))

1989-01-01

The US Global Research Plan and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme were created to assess the effects of global climate change but have not been able to devote much attention to the consequences climate change will have on human health and welfare. Although researchers and policy makers recognize that climate change will have complex effects on resources, in general, the social and medical sciences have not received appropriate international attention under the banner of global change. To address this imbalance, the public health research community needs to launch a international coordinated effort so that the social and medical sciences are as fully represented as other scientific disciplines. This document discusses the information needs, research priorities and strategic considerations of the global change and its impact on human health.

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Hagemann

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

Science.gov (United States)

Cassman, Kenneth G.

2007-03-01

There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

2017-12-01

Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

A Look at Global Climate Change Through Papal Encyclicals

Science.gov (United States)

Gutry-Korycka, Małgorzata

2017-12-01

The aim of this article is a comprehensive review of Papal Encyclicals in the context of global environmental and climatic change, against the backdrop of the activity of multinational institutions. The Encyclicals look to the future in teaching the faithful, in a manner which indicates that they are part of a goal-oriented policy, both in terms of scientific research, and concrete economic, social, and geopolitical activity. Attention has also been paid to the relationship between the activity of humankind, and global environmental change, particularly of the biotic and climatic variety. If this aggressive anthropogenic activity cannot be deemed responsible for initiating global warming, it may certainly be seen to have "encouraged" it. The impulses behind sustainable development, as well as the instruments of its implementation, and the inspiration behind the idea, have also been discussed. The achievement of this goal, necessitating the balancing of anthropological aspirations and the long-term security of the environment are also referenced in the Encyclicals.

High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. S. Mizielinski

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk project constructed and ran an ensemble of HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 3 atmosphere-only global climate simulations over the period 1985–2011, at resolutions of N512 (25 km, N216 (60 km and N96 (130 km as used in current global weather forecasting, seasonal prediction and climate modelling respectively. Alongside these present climate simulations a parallel ensemble looking at extremes of future climate was run, using a time-slice methodology to consider conditions at the end of this century. These simulations were primarily performed using a 144 million core hour, single year grant of computing time from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe in 2012, with additional resources supplied by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC and the Met Office. Almost 400 terabytes of simulation data were generated on the HERMIT supercomputer at the High Performance Computing Center Stuttgart (HLRS, and transferred to the JASMIN super-data cluster provided by the Science and Technology Facilities Council Centre for Data Archival (STFC CEDA for analysis and storage. In this paper we describe the implementation of the project, present the technical challenges in terms of optimisation, data output, transfer and storage that such a project involves and include details of the model configuration and the composition of the UPSCALE data set. This data set is available for scientific analysis to allow assessment of the value of model resolution in both present and potential future climate conditions.

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, C. S.

1997-01-01

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Climate change denial, freedom of speech and global justice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trygve Lavik

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper I claim that there are moral reasons for making climate denialism illegal . First I define climate denialism, and then I discuss its impact on society and its reception in the media.  I build my philosophical arguments mainly on John Stuart Mill and Thomas M. Scanlon.  According to Mill’s utilitarian justification of free speech, even untrue opinions are valuable in society’s pursuit of more truth. Consequently one might think that Mill’s philosophy would justify climate denialists’ right to free speech.  A major section of the paper argues against that view. The main arguments are: Climate denialism is not beneficial because its main goal is to produce doubt, and not truth. Climate denialism is not sincerely meant, which is a necessary condition for Mill to accept utterances. Climate denialists bring harm, by blocking necessary action on climate change.  Primarily they harm future generations and people in developing countries. Hence the case can be made in terms of global justice: Would future generations and people in developing countries support my claim? I think so, or so I argue. My argument from global justice is built on Scanlon’s distinction between the interests of participants, the interests of audiences, and the interests of bystanders.  The climate denialists have participant interests ‘in being able to call something to the attention of a wide audience’. Audience interests consist in ‘having access to expressions that we wish to hear or read, and even in being exposed to some degree to expressions we have not chosen’. Future generations and people in poor countries are bystanders to the climate debate. If the debate postpones necessary actions, it is the bystanders who must pay the price. I argue that bystanders’ costs outweigh participants’ and audiences’ interests, and that this is an argument for a statutory ban on climate denialism.Article first published online: 21 DEC 2015 

Global alteration of climate - hopes and fears

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viktorov, V.V.

1992-01-01

Problems concerning gaseous emission affecting the global climate alteration connected with hotbed effect are considered. Economical and social-political ways of solution of the problem of minimization of gaseous wastes are described. Role of nuclear power plants and alternative power plants in the hotbed effect are analyzed. International cooperation in environmental protection policy is discussed

Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

1994-01-01

This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Shaomin; Wu, Guang

2011-02-01

To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

State of Climate 2011 - Global Ocean Phytoplankton

Science.gov (United States)

Siegel, D. A.; Antoine, D.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; d'Andon, O. H. Fanton; Fields, E.; Franz, B. A.; Goryl, P.; Maritorena, S.; McClain, C. R.; Wang, M.;

Climate change adaptation: Where does global health fit in the agenda?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bowen Kathryn J

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Holocene evolution of the Tabasco delta – Mexico : impact of climate, volcanism and humans

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nooren, C.A.M.

2017-01-01

This research revealed the impact of climate, volcanism and humans on the late Holocene evolution of a tropical delta in southern Mexico. Palynological, tephrochronological, limnological, geomorphological and sedimentological techniques have been applied to reconstruct the evolution of the

Kyoto PLUS: Efficient global emission trade for an effective future climate policy; Kyoto PLUS: Effizienter globaler Emissionshandel fuer eine zukuenftig wirksame Weltklimapolitik

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wicke, L. [Inst. fuer Umwelt-Management (IfUM) an der ESCP-EAP, Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany)

2007-08-15

The majority of climate protection experts believe that the Kyoto Protocol in its present version provides a basis for preventing the climate change from taking on disastrous dimensions. In the meantime however a mainstream of opinion has developed which advocates the establishment of a functioning global climate protection system for the post-Kyoto phase. Kyoto Plus, a global climate certification system, is a concept developed by the author of three expert opinions for the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg which takes the principles of the Kyoto Protocol a step forward while striving to eliminate its weaknesses and which has matured sufficiently to be put into practice. Systems of this or a similar kind could enable Germany to make a decisive additional contribution to global climate protection, as the author stated at the BT Hearing on 23 May 2007.

Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Colwell, R R

1996-12-20

The origin of cholera has been elusive, even though scientific evidence clearly shows it is a waterborne disease. However, standard bacteriological procedures for isolation of the cholera vibrio from environmental samples, including water, between epidemics generally were unsuccessful. Vibrio cholerae, a marine vibrio, requiring salt for growth, enters into a dormant, viable but nonculturable stage when conditions are unfavorable for growth and reproduction. The association of Vibrio cholerae with plankton, notably copepods, provides further evidence for the environmental origin of cholera, as well as an explanation for the sporadic and erratic occurrence of cholera epidemics. On a global scale, cholera epidemics can now be related to climate and climatic events, such as El Niño, as well as the global distribution of the plankton host. Remote sensing, with the use of satellite imagery, offers the potential for predicting conditions conducive to cholera outbreaks or epidemics.

Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

2015-04-01

Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

2016-03-17

Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

2010-04-01

Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junsheng Li

Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

The evolution of international policies and mechanisms to advance sustainable forest management and mitigate global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bologna, J.; Lyke, J.; Theophile, K.

1995-01-01

Scientific findings regarding global climate change and deforestation led industrialized nations to bring both issues to the forefront of an international dialogue on the environment. International institutional attention to deforestation began in 1985 with the Tropical Forestry Action Program which helped countries develop plans for sustainable forest management. A few years later, the International Tropical Timber Organization, though designed to facilitate tropical timber trade, adopted guidelines for sustainable management of tropical production forests. Next, the activities before and after UNCED established a general set of forest principles and regional efforts to define sustainable forest management. The World Bank has also sought to reduce past lending failures that led to deforestation and other environmental degradation, through programmatic redirections and macro-economic policy reforms. Finally, through innovative financial incentives, industrialized and developing countries are identifying opportunities to offset debts and increase economic development without depleting forest resources. Collectively, these efforts have let to some trends that support sustainable forest management and mitigate climate change. The upcoming years will see a proactive set of multilateral programs to address deforestation, an increasing link between trade and the environment, and more uses of financial incentives to encourage sustainable forest management

1.2 million years of climate change, globally and in the Mediterranean

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Konijnendijk, T.Y.M.

2015-01-01

In this thesis we make a detailed reconstruction of climate changes based on materials from the Mediterranean Sea. Not only does this provide new insights in climate changes in the Mediterranean region, the aim is to improve our understanding of global climate changes as well. We created a single

The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Khachatryan, S.

2009-05-01

Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

Science.gov (United States)

Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

2017-03-01

Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

White book Escrime. Climatic simulation studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terray, L.; Braconnot, P.

2007-01-01

The ESCRIME project aims to manage the analysis realized on the climatic simulations on the framework of the fourth report of the GIEC (group of intergovernmental experts on the climate evolution), in particularly the simulations based on french models. This white book is constituted by 8 chapters: the global scenario, the climatic sensibility, the variation modes, the regionalization and the extremes, the hydrological cycle, the polar regions and the cryo-sphere, the carbon cycle, detection and attributions. (A.L.B.)

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

2000-06-01

A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

Multinationals and global climate change. Issues for the automotive and oil industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolk, A.; Levy, D.

2003-01-01

This chapter analyzes the strategic responses by U.S. and European multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the oil and automobile industries to the global climate change issue. We examine and attempt to explain the differences across regions, across industries, and the changes over time. Traditional economic drivers of strategy do not provide a satisfactory account for these differences, and the chapter focuses instead on the conflicting institutional pressures on MNEs and the implications for their climate strategy. The home-country institutional context and individual corporate histories can create divergent pressures on strategy for MNEs based in different countries. At the same time, the location of MNEs in global industries and their participation in 'global issues arenas' such as climate change generate institutional forces for strategic convergence. It appears that local context influenced initial corporate reactions, but that convergent pressures predominate as the issue matures

Global Energy Transitions and the Challenge of Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riahi, K.

2008-01-01

Global emissions of greenhouse-gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities since pre-industrial times. This increase in emissions has lead to unequivocal global warming, which is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Reducing the risk of irreversible climate impacts requires thus the mitigation of global GHG emissions aiming at the long-term stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. Achieving this goal translates into the need of reducing emissions to virtually zero over long time-frames. Yet international agreement on a long-term climate policy target remains a distant prospect, due to both scientific uncertainty and political disagreement on the appropriate balance between mitigation costs and reduced risks of dangerous impacts. At the same time, growing emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase the amount of climate change we are committed to over the long term. Over the next few decades, these growing emissions may make some potentially desirable long term goals unattainable. Recent analysis conducted at IIASA indicates the need of major energy transitions over the next few decades. For example, staying below the target suggested by the European Union of 2 C warming (with just a 50% likelihood) will require the massive deployment of zero-carbon energy by 2050, and a tippling of the contribution of zero-carbon energy globally to more than 60% by that time. Although there are large uncertainties with respect to the deployment of individual future technologies, there is strong evidence that no single mitigation measure alone would be sufficient for achieving the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels. A wide portfolio of technologies across all GHG-intensive sectors is needed for cost-effective emissions reductions. The bulk of these emissions reductions would need to come from the energy sector, with

Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

2017-12-01

The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2016-01-01

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

Perspectives on global climate change: A review of the adaptation and mitigation approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrisette, P.M.

1992-01-01

This paper was prepared for the conference on Global Climate Change and International Security sponsored by the Midwest Consortium for International Security Studies of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and held in Chicago, Illinois on February 11-13, 1992. The purpose of the paper is to provide some background on the different perceptions and perspectives that are presently shaping the policy debate on how to respond to the problem of global warming. For better or worse, this debate has focused primarily on whether to adapt to climate change in the future or to mitigate climate change in the present, and as the issue has become increasingly political this debate has become polarized. The two approaches, as this paper notes, are not mutually exclusive; in fact, they share much in common. Differences, however, can be found in how proponents of each view the risks of global climate change. This paper provides a brief outline of the progression of global warming from an obscure scientific concern into a leading international political issue, reviews previous efforts by social scientists to assess attitudes and positions on global warming, and examines in detail the adaptation and mitigation perspectives and assesses how they differ on the basis of different conceptions of uncertainty and risk, equity, and technology

Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henderson-Sellers, A.

2001-01-01

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

2014-01-01

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

Global Climate Change for Kids: Making Difficult Ideas Accessible and Exciting

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, D. K.; Leon, N.; Greene, M. P.

2009-12-01

NASA has recently launched its Global Climate Change web site (http://climate.nasa.gov), and it has been very well received. It has now also launched in preliminary form an associated site for children and educators, with a plan for completion in the near future. The goals of the NASA Global Climate Change Education site are: To increase awareness and understanding of climate change science in upper-elementary and middle-school students, reinforcing and building upon basic concepts introduced in the formal science education curriculum for these grades; To present, insofar as possible, a holistic picture of climate change science and current evidence of climate change, describing Earth as a system of interconnected processes; To be entertaining and motivating; To be clear and easy to understand; To be easy to navigate; To address multiple learning styles; To describe and promote "green" careers; To increase awareness of NASA's contributions to climate change science; To provide valuable resources for educators; To be compliant with Section 508 of the Americans with Disabilities Act. The site incorporates research findings not only on climate change, but also on effective web design for children. It is envisioned that most of the content of the site will ultimately be presented in multimedia forms. These will include illustrated and narrated "slide shows," animated expositions, interactive concept-rich games and demonstrations, videos, animated fictionalized stories, and printable picture galleries. In recognition of the attention span of the audience, content is presented in short, modular form, with a suggested, but not mandatory order of access. Empathetic animal and human cartoon personalities are used to explain concepts and tell stories. Expository, fiction, game, video, text, and image modules are interlinked for reinforcement of similar ideas. NASA's Global Climate Change Education web site addresses the vital need to impart and emphasize Earth system science

Acting locally, developing knowledge globally: a transitions perspective on designing climate change adaptation strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grin, J.; Driessen, J.; Leroy, P.; van Vierssen, W.

2010-01-01

Climate change, from many perspectives and for many reasons, is a complex issue: scientifically, politically, and in terms of global justice. As such, climate change might be the global societal and political challenge of the 21st century. Dealing with it, either via mitigation or via adaptation,

Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

2018-01-01

We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the Sinaloa State, México

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Miguel Flores Campaña

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The variation of environmental conditions deriving from global climate change in the state of Sinaloa and its impact on the region's main productive activities have not been sufficiently studied. The article describes various phenomena associated with climate change and its consequences for Sinaloa, analyzes the scarce climate scenarios that include the region, and discusses the modifications caused by tropical cyclones and interannual changes. It also discusses the repercussions of climate change on agricultural activity and aspects related to sea level rise. Finally, the text empathizes on the lack of local estimations and studies that could serve as base for improved planning strategies and initiatives to facilitate adaptation to climate change in the region.

Resolving the Aerosol Piece of the Global Climate Picture

Science.gov (United States)

Kahn, R. A.

2017-12-01

Factors affecting our ability to calculate climate forcing and estimate model predictive skill include direct radiative effects of aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. Several decades of Earth-observing satellite observations have produced a global aerosol column-amount (AOD) record, but an aerosol microphysical property record required for climate and many air quality applications is lacking. Surface-based photometers offer qualitative aerosol-type classification, and several space-based instruments map aerosol air-mass types under favorable conditions. However, aerosol hygroscopicity, mass extinction efficiency (MEE), and quantitative light absorption, must be obtained from in situ measurements. Completing the aerosol piece of the climate picture requires three elements: (1) continuing global AOD and qualitative type mapping from space-based, multi-angle imagers and aerosol vertical distribution from near-source stereo imaging and downwind lidar, (2) systematic, quantitative in situ observations of particle properties unobtainable from space, and (3) continuing transport modeling to connect observations to sources, and extrapolate limited sampling in space and time. At present, the biggest challenges to producing the needed aerosol data record are: filling gaps in particle property observations, maintaining global observing capabilities, and putting the pieces together. Obtaining the PDFs of key particle properties, adequately sampled, is now the leading observational deficiency. One simplifying factor is that, for a given aerosol source and season, aerosol amounts often vary, but particle properties tend to be repeatable. SAM-CAAM (Systematic Aircraft Measurements to Characterize Aerosol Air Masses), a modest aircraft payload deployed frequently could fill this gap, adding value to the entire satellite data record, improving aerosol property assumptions in retrieval algorithms, and providing MEEs to translate between remote-sensing optical constraints

Emergence of long distance bird migrations: a new model integrating global climate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Louchart, Antoine

2008-12-01

During modern birds history, climatic and environmental conditions have evolved on wide scales. In a continuously changing world, landbirds annual migrations emerged and developed. However, models accounting for the origins of these avian migrations were formulated with static ecogeographic perspectives. Here I reviewed Cenozoic paleoclimatic and paleontological data relative to the palearctic paleotropical long distance (LD) migration system. This led to propose a new model for the origin of LD migrations, the ‘shifting home’ model (SHM). It is based on a dynamic perspective of climate evolution and may apply to the origins of most modern migrations. Non-migrant tropical African bird taxa were present at European latitudes during most of the Cenozoic. Their distribution limits shifted progressively toward modern tropical latitudes during periods of global cooling and increasing seasonality. In parallel, decreasing winter temperatures in the western Palearctic drove shifts of population winter ranges toward the equator. I propose that this induced the emergence of most short distance migrations, and in turn LD migrations. This model reconciliates ecologically tropical ancestry of most LD migrants with predominant winter range shifts, in accordance with requirements for heritable homing. In addition, it is more parsimonious than other non-exclusive models. Greater intrinsic plasticity of winter ranges implied by the SHM is supported by recently observed impacts of the present global warming on migrating birds. This may induce particular threats to some LD migrants. The ancestral, breeding homes of LD migrants were not ‘northern’ or ‘southern’ but shifted across high and middle latitudes while migrations emerged through winter range shifts themselves.

Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

2012-09-01

Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.

France's Climate Plan. Implementation of the Grenelle Environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This report discusses the greenhouse gas emission reduction objectives by 2020 set by the French government within the frame of the 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' and also in compliance with France's commitments within international agreements and conferences, and indicates the share of each sector for these reductions (housing and office building, industry, energy, transports). This report first recalls the conclusions of the IPCC, indicates the observed evolutions and tendencies in the case of France, and describes the expected impacts of climate change. It gives an overview of the French climate policy and presents the methodology adopted to update the Climate Plan (scenarios, global assessment, assessment of the impact of some specific measures, cost assessment). Then, it describes French emission evolutions (globally and per sector) according to two scenarios by 2020. Global and transverse policies and measures are discussed, as well as those per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture and forests, energy, wastes, public authorities and local communities, information and education). A global method of assessment of scenarios is presented, and an assessment of policies and measures is reported. A sensitivity study of the impact of the present crisis on France's emissions is also reported. The Kyoto protocol mechanism is described as well as the adaptation process

Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2017-05-09

May 9, 2017 ... Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research ... The Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) ... the decisions they need to make about investment choices and development options, ...

Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

2008-02-01

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Cities: A Global Baseline.

Science.gov (United States)

Araos, Malcolm; Austin, Stephanie E; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D

2016-01-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on human health, and urban populations are expected to be highly sensitive. The health risks from climate change in cities are compounded by rapid urbanization, high population density, and climate-sensitive built environments. Local governments are positioned to protect populations from climate health risks, but it is unclear whether municipalities are producing climate-adaptive policies. In this article, we develop and apply systematic methods to assess the state of public health adaptation in 401 urban areas globally with more than 1 million people, creating the first global baseline for urban public health adaptation. We find that only 10% of the sampled urban areas report any public health adaptation initiatives. The initiatives identified most frequently address risks posed by extreme weather events and involve direct changes in management or behavior rather than capacity building, research, or long-term investments in infrastructure. Based on our characterization of the current urban health adaptation landscape, we identify several gaps: limited evidence of reporting of institutional adaptation at the municipal level in urban areas in the Global South; lack of information-based adaptation initiatives; limited focus on initiatives addressing infectious disease risks; and absence of monitoring, reporting, and evaluation. © The Author(s) 2015.

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, A.

2009-01-01

This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO 2 uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10 15 kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)

Climate-model induced differences in the 21st century global and regional glacier contributions to sea-level rise

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Giesen, R.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831603; Oerlemans, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06833656X

2013-01-01

The large uncertainty in future global glacier volume projections partly results from a substantial range in future climate conditions projected by global climate models. This study addresses the effect of global and regional differences in climate input data on the projected twenty-first century

Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

Science.gov (United States)

Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

2011-06-01

Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

The impact of climate change on the global wine industry: Challenges & solutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michelle Renée Mozell

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the impact of climate change upon the global production of winegrapes and wine. It includes a review of the literature on the cause and effects of climate change, as well as illustrations of the specific challenges global warming may bring to the production of winegrapes and wine. More importantly, this paper provides some practical solutions that industry professionals can take to mitigate and adapt to the coming change in both vineyards and wineries.

Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate change?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul John Beggs

Full Text Available The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.

Multinationals and global climate change. Issues for the automotive and oil industries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kolk, A.; Levy, D.

2003-07-01

This chapter analyzes the strategic responses by U.S. and European multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the oil and automobile industries to the global climate change issue. We examine and attempt to explain the differences across regions, across industries, and the changes over time. Traditional economic drivers of strategy do not provide a satisfactory account for these differences, and the chapter focuses instead on the conflicting institutional pressures on MNEs and the implications for their climate strategy. The home-country institutional context and individual corporate histories can create divergent pressures on strategy for MNEs based in different countries. At the same time, the location of MNEs in global industries and their participation in 'global issues arenas' such as climate change generate institutional forces for strategic convergence. It appears that local context influenced initial corporate reactions, but that convergent pressures predominate as the issue matures.

Paradigms of global climate change and sustainable development: Issues and related policies

OpenAIRE

Prabhat Kumar Rai; Prashant Kumar Rai

2013-01-01

Combating climate change is intimately linked with peace and resource equity. Therefore, critical link establishment between climate change and sustainable development is extremely relevant in global scenario. Following the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, the international sustainable development agenda was taken up by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD); the climate change agenda was carried forward by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). International and local c...

The global climate Policy Evaluation Framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohan, D.; Stafford, R.K.; Scheraga, J.D.; Herrod, S.

1994-01-01

The Policy Evaluation Framework (PEF) is a decision analysis tool that enables decision makers to continuously formulate policies that take into account the existing uncertainties, and to refine policies as new scientific information is developed. PEF integrates deterministic parametric models of physical, biological, and economic systems with a flexible decision tree system. The deterministic models represent greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric accumulation of these gases, global and regional climate changes, ecosystem impacts, economic impacts, and mitigation and adaptation options, The decision tree system captures the key scientific and economic uncertainties, and reflects the wide range of possible outcomes of alternative policy actions. The framework contains considerable flexibility to allow a wide range of scientific and economic assumptions or scenarios to be represented and explored. A key feature of PEF is its capability to address both mitigation policies and investments in anticipatory adaptation to protect ecological and economic systems, as well as interactions among such options. PEF's time structure allows issues related to the timing and flexibility of alternatives to be evaluated, while the decision tree structure facilitates examining questions involving the value of information, contingent actions, and probabilistic representations. This paper is intended to introduce PEF to the global climate policy community. The paper provides an overview of the structure, modules, and capabilities of PEF, and discusses selected results from an initial set of illustrative applications

Global climate change -- taking action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

Commitment of the Canadian Mining Association (MAC), on behalf of its member companies, to play a global leadership role in eco-efficiency and environmental stewardship and participate fully in Canada's efforts to reduce emissions that contribute to climate change, are outlined. The principles underlying the MAC's commitment include: prudent action to reduce GHG emissions; the greatest possible efficiency in using energy; use of best practices and technologies; support for the development of balanced climate change policies; cooperation with all stakeholders in achieving the maximum feasible reduction in GHG emissions; support for research and analysis of the social, economic and environmental implications of GHG reduction strategies; and active support for a balanced and effective public outreach and education program. A brief review of how the mining sector has already made giant strides in cutting energy consumption and in reducing carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per unit of output during the past decade is supplemented by summaries of GHG reduction success stories from member companies such as Cominco, Teck Corporation, Falconbridge and Syncrude Canada Limited

Climate evolution: from the recent past to the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jouzel, J.; Lorius, C.

1999-01-01

The aim of this article is twofold. We first summarize our current scientific knowledge about the potential influence of human activities on climate. This review is largely based on the conclusions of the 1995 IPCC report (International Panel on Climate Change). An increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has been observed since 1750 (CH 4 = 145 %; CO 2 = 30 %; N 2 O =15 %) and in the temperature of the Earth's surface since 1860 (between 0.3 and 0.6 deg C). This report suggests a discernable human influence on climate and predicts significant global warming for the next century (1 to 3.5 deg C) as a result of the anthropogenic increase of the greenhouse effect. We then show how studies of past climates have, over the last ten years, contributed to this problem by providing information relevant to the future of our climate. Important results concern the existence of a relationship between climate and concentrations of greenhouse gases for more than 200 000 years, the discovery of rapid climatic changes (∼ 10 deg C in a few decades in Greenland) and the reconstruction of recent climate showing that the 20. century is the warmest since 1 400 AD. (authors)

Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

2015-01-01

Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient...

Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs

Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

2018-05-01

Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.

2005-01-01

The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally

The value of international cooperation for abating global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammitt, James K.; Adams, John L.

1996-01-01

Because abatement of global climate change is a public good, independent national actions may not produce the efficient quantity. Using a numerical integrated-assessment model, abatement costs and damages induced by climate change are compared at the cooperative and noncooperative solutions to a set of two-party dynamic games between the industrialized and developing countries. Games with perfect and imperfect information about climate and economic factors are considered. Across 144 games with perfect information, incorporating different values of climate and economic parameters, the noncooperative solution usually yields global benefits comparable to those of the cooperative solution. In about one-fifth of these games, however, a second noncooperative solution exists which yields none of the benefits of the cooperative solution. In a game with imperfect information, where the state of nature is uncertain in the first but known in the second of two periods, the expected benefits of the noncooperative solution are 98% of the expected benefits of the cooperative solution. In contrast to single-agent studies which show little cost to delaying abatement, the benefits of cooperation are usually lost if cooperation is delayed 20 years

Life on a warmer earth: Possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. Executive report 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flohn, H

1981-01-01

This Executive Report derives from IIASA Research Report RR-80-30, Possible Climatic Consequences of a Man-Made Global Warming, by H. Flohn and published separately. It is based on research undertaken to explore the interaction between energy and climate, including the impact on the global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear, and fossil fuels. Its findings describe the global warming effects caused by carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels and by other trace gases released into the atmosphere. The approach is paleoclimatic; it provides insight into what global warming will produce by considering what is known about past periods of the earth's history when the global average surface temperature was higher than it is now. The purpose of this report is to put the research findings into layman's language and add related information to provide a general introduction to the global warming problem. Information is presented under the following chapter titles: the scenario in brief; the climatic system; changes in ice cover; changes in atmosphere and oceans; man's effect on climate; taking the earth's temperature; what a hotter earth might mean; beyond immediate prospects; and, today's mixed signals. (JGB)

Review: Effect of global warming on plant evolution and diversity; lessons from the past and its potential recurrence in the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Setyawan AD. 2009. Effect of global warming on plant evolution and diversity; lessons from the past and its potential recurrence in the future. Nusantara Bioscience 1: 43-52. Lessons from the past shows that global warming and glaciation is a natural cycle of repeated, the trigger factor is not always the same, but global warming is always accompanied by elevated levels of CO2 and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which cause the other rising global temperatures. Present and destruction of various plants and other living makhluh continue to happen from time to time. Every era has its own life form, as a mirror of global environmental conditions at the time. Biodiversity is not always the same between one period of global warming are with the next global warming, or one period of glaciation that one with the next glaciation, although new breeds always show traces the evolution of his ancestors. Man is one of the agents of global warming that began with the development of agricultural systems since 8000 years ago. The impact of climate change due to global warming should continue to be wary of. Based on past experience, global warming is always followed by mass extinctions, but various forms of life will still survive even though its shape is almost certainly not the same as before. Living organisms can survive it will evolve into new taxa that are different from its parental taxa. Humans who were present at that time probably were not a men who are present at this time, given Homo sapiens may have been extinct for not being able to adapt or otherwise has evolved into a new man who may no longer shows characteristics of human wisdom.

ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowland, F. S.

2010-01-01

The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

EVOLUTIONARY TRACKS OF THE CLIMATE OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS AROUND DIFFERENT MASS STARS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kadoya, S.; Tajika, E., E-mail: kadoya@astrobio.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: tajika@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Faculty of Science Bldg. 1 #711, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033 (Japan)

2016-07-10

The climatic evolution of the Earth depends strongly on the evolution of the insolation from the Sun and the amount of the greenhouse gasses, especially CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the evolution of the climate of hypothetical Earths around stars whose masses are different from the solar mass with a luminosity evolution model of the stars, a mantle degassing model coupled with a parameterized convection model of the planetary interiors, and an energy balance climate model of the planetary surface. In the habitable zone (HZ), the climate of the planets is initially warm or hot, depending on the orbital semimajor axes. We found that, in the inner HZ, the climate of the planets becomes hotter with time owing to the increase in the luminosity of the central stars, while, in the outer HZ, it becomes colder and eventually globally ice-covered owing to the decrease in the CO{sub 2} degassing rate of the planets. The orbital condition for maintaining the warm climate similar to the present Earth becomes very limited, and more interestingly, the planet orbiting in the outer HZ becomes globally ice-covered after a certain critical age (∼3 Gyr for the hypothetical Earth with standard parameters), irrespective of the mass of the central star. This is because the critical age depends on the evolution of the planets and planetary factors, rather than on the stellar mass. The habitability of the Earth-like planet is shown to be limited with age even though it is orbiting within the HZ.

EVOLUTIONARY TRACKS OF THE CLIMATE OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS AROUND DIFFERENT MASS STARS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kadoya, S.; Tajika, E.

2016-01-01

The climatic evolution of the Earth depends strongly on the evolution of the insolation from the Sun and the amount of the greenhouse gasses, especially CO_2 in the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the evolution of the climate of hypothetical Earths around stars whose masses are different from the solar mass with a luminosity evolution model of the stars, a mantle degassing model coupled with a parameterized convection model of the planetary interiors, and an energy balance climate model of the planetary surface. In the habitable zone (HZ), the climate of the planets is initially warm or hot, depending on the orbital semimajor axes. We found that, in the inner HZ, the climate of the planets becomes hotter with time owing to the increase in the luminosity of the central stars, while, in the outer HZ, it becomes colder and eventually globally ice-covered owing to the decrease in the CO_2 degassing rate of the planets. The orbital condition for maintaining the warm climate similar to the present Earth becomes very limited, and more interestingly, the planet orbiting in the outer HZ becomes globally ice-covered after a certain critical age (∼3 Gyr for the hypothetical Earth with standard parameters), irrespective of the mass of the central star. This is because the critical age depends on the evolution of the planets and planetary factors, rather than on the stellar mass. The habitability of the Earth-like planet is shown to be limited with age even though it is orbiting within the HZ.

Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

2008-12-01

Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal

Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

none

2005-07-01

Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

Presenting Global Warming and Evolution as Public Health Issues to Encourage Acceptance of Scientific Evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Stover, Shawn K.; McArthur, Laurence B.; Mabry, Michelle L.

2013-01-01

Although evidence supporting anthropogenic global warming and evolution by natural selection is considerable, the public does not embrace these concepts. The current study explores the hypothesis that individuals will become more receptive to scientific viewpoints if evidence for evolution and implications of global warming are presented as issues…

State of the Climate Monthly Overview - Global El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The State of the Climate is a collection of periodic summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale. The State of the Climate...

MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

1992-01-01

An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

The Middle Miocene Climate Transition in the Central Mediterranean. Geologica Ultraiectina (326)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mourik, A.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304849383

2010-01-01

The Middle Miocene Climate Transition (~15-13.7 Ma) is one of the major steps in Cenozoic climate evolution. The rapid expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet at ~13.9 – 13.7 Ma caused important climate changes on a global scale. The aim of this PhD research has been to study the effects of the

BRICS COUNTRIES’ POLITICAL AND LEGAL PARTICIPATION IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Gladun

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents an overview and analysis of international legal regulations on climate change. The authors examine how the international regime related to climate change has evolved in multilateral agreements. A special focus is put on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities which became the basis of discord among states in discussing targets and responsibilities in climate change mitigation. The authors note that in 2015 the international climate change regime entered a new stage where the most important role is determined for developing countries, both in the legal and in the financial infrastructure, and in the formation of an international climate change policy.The importance of the participation of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS in an international climate change regime has been recognized for some time. The article describes the policy and regulations on climate-related issues in BRICS. The authors compare the key actions and measures BRICS have taken for complying with international climate change documents. They highlight that global climate change action cannot be successful without BRICS countries’ involvement. BRICS must therefore make adequate efforts in emissions reduction measures and significant commitments in respect of the international climate change regime. The authors propose three major steps for BRICS to take the lead in dealing with climate change. First, BRICS need to foster further discussion and cooperation on climate issues and work out an obligatory legal framework to fight climate change collectively as well as unified legislation at their domestic levels. Second, Russia and other BRICS countries have the potential to cooperate in the field of renewable energy through the exchange of technology, investment in the sector, and the participation of their energy companies in each other’s domestic market. Assuming Russia will support the development and enhancement of

What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haftendorn, C.; Kemfert, C.; Holz, F.

2012-01-01

Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often the first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible market adjustments between demand regions through market effects are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal market: the “COALMOD-World” model. This equilibrium model computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting policy and a fast-roll out of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness of climate policies. - Highlights: ► Interactions between climate policy and the global coal market until 2030 modeled. ► Analysis with the numerical model: “COALMOD-World”. ► Unilateral European climate policy partly compensated by market adjustment effects. ► A fast roll-out of CCS can lead to positive market adjustment effects. ► An export restricting supply-side policy generates virtuous market adjustments.

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

2018-04-01

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

Climate change projections: past and future mysteries of climate science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meehl, Gerald A.

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: The history of climate change has been wrapped in mysteries. Some have been solved, and we await the outcome of others. The major mystery of 20th century climate was why did temperatures rise in the early part of the century, level off, and then rise rapidly again after the 1970s? It has only been in the past seven years that advances in climate modelling have allowed us to deconstruct 20th century climate to pull apart the separate influences of natural and human-caused factors. This has allowed us to understand the subtle interplay between these various influences that produced the temperature time evolution. Another mystery has involved extreme weather and climate events. Again, climate models have allowed us to quantify how the small changes in average climate translate into much larger changes of regional extremes. The biggest remaining mysteries in climate science involve the future, and how the climate will evolve over the coming century. Up until now, various scenarios postulating different possible outcomes for 21st century climate, assuming different types of human activities, have been run in the climate models to provide a wide range of possible futures. However, more recently the outlook for global warming is being framed as a combination of mitigation and adaptation. If policy actions are taken to mitigate part of the problem of global warming, then climate models must be relied on to quantify the time-evolving picture of how much regional climate change we must adapt to. Solving this mystery will be the biggest and most important challenge ever taken on by the climate modelling community

Studying the human dimensions of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berk, R.A.

1991-01-01

With recent scientific interest in climate change has come a need to address substantive issues over very long periods of time and over virtually the entire globe. There is also a growing recognition not only of the links between physical and biological systems but also of the key roles played by human activities and institutions in interaction with the physical and biological world. Hence, the study of climate change presents a host of important questions to social scientists, for which they are not fully prepared. The problems inherent in studying the human dimensions of global climate change do not occur in a scientific vacuum. Rather, they are in part created by, and in part reflect, important gaps in scientific understanding of the physical and biological dimensions. To set the stage, therefore, the general nature of these gaps needs to be briefly reviewed

Risk perception and commitment to reduce global climate change in Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodríguez-Priego, Nuria

2014-04-01

Full Text Available An online national survey among the Spanish population (n = 602 was conducted to examine the factors underlying a person’s support for commitments to global climate change reductions. Multiple hierarchical regression analysis was conducted in four steps and a structural equations model was tested. A survey tool designed by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication was applied in order to build scales for the variables introduced in the study. The results show that perceived consumer effectiveness and risk perception are determinant factors of commitment to mitigating global climate change. However, there are differences in the influence that other factors, such as socio-demographics, view of nature and cultural cognition, have on the last predicted variable.Una encuesta online a la población española (n = 602 examina los factores que predicen el apoyo al compromiso con el medio ambiente por parte de los participantes para reducir el cambio climático global. Se realizó una regresión múltiple jerárquica en cuatro pasos y se testó el modelo de ecuaciones estructurales propuesto. En la encuesta se aplicó una herramienta diseñada por el Yale Project on Climate Change Communication con la finalidad de construir escalas para las variables introducidas en el estudio. Los resultados muestran que la efectividad percibida por el consumidor y el riesgo percibido son factores determinantes del apoyo al compromiso para reducir el cambio climático global. No obstante, se encontraron algunas diferencias en cuanto a la influencia de otros factores tales como las variables socio-demográficas, la visión de la naturaleza y la cognición cultural.

Level of knowledge in the science of climate change: will the climate really change in the 21st century?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourque, A.

2003-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently stated that mean temperature is not as stable as it used to be, indicating a trend toward global warming. Understanding this phenomena should lead to better decisions concerning reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. It should also make it easier to adapt our socio-economic and environmental activities to a new reality which seems inevitable. The author discussed climate equilibrium by looking at the five sub-systems: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. A review of the historical evolution of climate was presented along with an examination of the relationships between greenhouse gases and the recent evolution of climate. The author discussed the uncertainty of scenarios predicting the future of climate change and concluded that climate change is upon us and is likely to intensify in the future. It was emphasized that adaptation to climate change will have to include reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the author, a scenario involving a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere appears almost unavoidable. 7 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs

The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

2016-03-01

Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandom, Christopher; Faurby, Søren; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2014-07-22

The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132,000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial-interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary.

Mind the rate. Why rate global climate change matters, and how much

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambrosi, Ph.

2006-01-01

To assess climate policies in a cost-efficiency framework with constraints on the magnitude and rate of global climate change we have built RESPONSE, an optimal control integrated assessment model. Our results show that the uncertainty about climate sensitivity leads to significant short-term mitigation efforts all the more as the arrival of information regarding this parameter is belated. There exists thus a high opportunity cost to know before 2030 the true value of this parameter, which is not totally granted so far. Given this uncertainty, a +2 deg C objective could lead to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades and might prove unacceptable. Furthermore, the uncertainty about climate sensitivity magnifies the influence of the rate constraint on short-term decision, leading to rather stringent policy recommendations for the coming decades. This result is particularly robust to the choice of discount rate and to the beliefs of the decision-maker about climate sensitivity. We finally show that the uncertainty about the rate constraint is even more important for short-term decision than the uncertainty about climate sensitivity or magnitude of warming. This means that the critical rate of climate change, i.e. a transient characteristic of climate risks, matters much more than the long-term objective of climate policy, i.e. the critical magnitude of climate change. Therefore, research should be aimed at better characterising climate change risks in view to help decision-makers in agreeing on a safe guardrail to limit the rate of global warming. (author)

Global climate change and the equity-efficiency puzzle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manne, Alan S.; Stephan, Gunter

2005-01-01

There is a broad consensus that the costs of abatement of global climate change can be reduced efficiently through the assignment of quota rights and through international trade in these rights. There is, however, no consensus on whether the initial assignment of emissions permits can affect the Pareto-optimal global level of abatement. This paper provides some insight into the equity-efficiency puzzle. Qualitative results are obtained from a small-scale model; then quantitative evidence of separability is obtained from MERGE, a multiregion integrated assessment model. It is shown that if all the costs of climate change can be expressed in terms of GDP losses, Pareto-efficient abatement strategies are independent of the initial allocation of emissions rights. This is the case sometimes described as 'market damages'. If, however, different regions assign different values to nonmarket damages such as species losses, different sharing rules may affect the Pareto-optimal level of greenhouse gas abatement. Separability may then be demonstrated only in specific cases (e.g. identical welfare functions or quasi-linearity of preferences or small shares of wealth devoted to abatement)

Shifting Global Climate Governance: Creating Long-Term Goals Through UNFCCC Article 2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Brian Fisher

2011-12-01

Full Text Available I argue that the long-term risk of global climate change has been mischaracterized as an environmental issue, and therefore, solutions based solely on national emission targets will be ineffective. Thus, this paper argues for establishing long-term goals emphasizing both adaptation and clean energy to generate equitable and effective global climate policy that addresses this fundamental threat. This requires defining and operationalizing the overall objective contained in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A second key aspect to operationalizing Article 2 is to understand those ‘particularly vulnerable’ as declared in the Article and in various climate agreements. Once operationalized, these long-term objectives can be achieved through approaches that emphasize the development of clean energy (and concomitant technology, and adaptation within vulnerable communities in their local context. It necessitates dropping formal mechanisms at the current core of the regime designed to regulate national emissions, and instead build the core of the regime around the ‘stabilization’ of both the climate system through clean energy and vulnerable people through effective adaptation.

Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

2010-05-04

The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, S; Wu, G

2010-12-01

Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

2015-09-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

2015-09-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. [Monograph

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1981-01-01

A summary of research conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and published by H. Flohn in 1977 updates the original data to March 1980. The work explores the interaction between energy and climate, including the impact on the global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear, and fossil fuels. Its findings describe the global warming effects caused by carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels and by other trace gases released into the atmosphere. The approach is paleoclimatic in that it gains insights into what global warming will produce by considering what is known about past periods of the earth's history when the global average surface temperature was higher than it is now. Although paleoclimatic knowledge is limited, no complete model of the climatic system is available. This research uses both approaches, combining the two to some extent. 10 figures.

Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

2016-01-01

Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

Climate change and the World Bank: opportunity for global governance?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehmer-Christiansen, S.A.

1999-01-01

The direct and indirect efforts of the World Bank and its off-spring, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), to become leading international agents of global environmental 'governance' and 'sustainable development' are described and analysed politically with reference to the development of an implementation regime of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The Bank/GEF are seen as engaging in a potentially dangerous experiment of 'global ecological modernisation', or industrial transformation, in 'emerging economies', an experiment legitimised by reference to the catastrophic threat of man-made 'global warming'. This threat is already being translated into political, commercial and bureaucratic benefits accruing to a small global elite. How was this achieved and what are the likely political implications? (author)