WorldWideScience

Sample records for global change response

  1. Human response to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frassetto, R.

    1991-01-01

    Alertness of the global climate and environment change triggered by the effects of the economy of waste of industrial modern society has been raised to governments and populations. World-wide agreements and protocols have been established; they will be improved for action in two major issues: limitation (elimination of CFC's use, reductions of CO2 emissions, increasing energy efficiency, etc.) and adaptation (socio economic impacts, human behaviour, enhancement of predictive models, etc.)

  2. Soil bacterial community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergmark, Lasse

    competing and very contrasting plant types (Calluna and Deschampsia) dominated the vegetation. This led to Manuscript 3 where the impact and responses of the climate change manipulations on the microbial community composition was investigated under the contrasting vegetation types. Our results show a high......Soil bacteria and archaea are essential for ecosystem functioning and plant growth through their degradation of organic matter and turnover of nutrients. But since the majority of soil bacteria and archaea are unclassified and “nonculturable” the functionality of the microbial community and its...... overall importance for ecosystem function in soil is poorly understood. Global change factors may affect the diversity and functioning of soil prokaryotes and thereby ecosystem functioning. To gain a better understanding of the effects of global changes it is of fundamental importance to classify...

  3. Soil fungal community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugwitz, Merian Skouw

    Global change will affect the functioning and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and since soil fungi are key players in organic matter decomposition and nutrient turnover, shifts in fungal community composition might have a strong impact on soil functioning. The main focus of this thesis...... was therefore to investigate the impact of global environmental changes on soil fungal communities in a temperate and subartic heath ecosystem. The objective was further to determine global change effects on major functional groups of fungi and analyze the influence of fungal community changes on soil carbon...... and nutrient availability and storage. By combining molecular methods such as 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR of fungal ITS amplicons with analyses of soil enzymes, nutrient pools of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus we were able to characterize soil fungal communities as well as their impact on nutrient...

  4. Business responses to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinkse, J.M.

    2006-04-27

    This research project studies the evolution and determinants of corporate climate strategies of multinationals. Since most companies are affected by global climate change in a direct or indirect way, a range of strategies are emerging to mitigate climate change. These strategies are not only of a political nature (e.g. influencing government institutions), but also of a competitive nature. The aim is to introduce a typology of corporate climate strategies, paying specific attention to the market components related to climate change. More and more, multinationals' actions in reducing greenhouse gas emissions are aimed at achieving a sustained competitive advantage in addition to compliance with government regulation. What factors determine these market strategies for climate change will be explored in a theoretical framework based on institutional theory and the resource-based view of the firm.

  5. Business Leadership in Global Climate Change Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esty, Daniel C; Bell, Michelle L

    2018-04-01

    In the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement, 195 countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recognition of the scientific consensus on the consequences of climate change, including substantial public health burdens. In June 2017, however, US president Donald Trump announced that the United States would not implement the Paris Agreement. We highlight the business community's backing for climate change action in the United States. Just as the US federal government is backing away from its Paris commitments, many corporate executives are recognizing the need to address the greenhouse gas emissions of their companies and the business logic of strong environmental, social, and governance practices more generally. We conclude that climate change could emerge as an issue on which the business and public health communities might align and provide leadership.

  6. Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, John K; Schweitzer, Jennifer A; O'Reilly-Wapstra, Julianne; Chapman, Samantha K; Steane, Dorothy; Langley, Adam; Bailey, Joseph K

    2013-01-01

    In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.

  7. Environmental variation and population responses to global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lawson, Callum R.; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in

  8. Terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change: A research strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.

  9. Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despres, L.; Hossaert-Mckey, M.; Martin, J.F.; Pont, D.; Valero, M.; Chave, J.; Benizri, E.; Amiaud, B.; Boury-Esnault, N.; Fritz, H.; Lavelle, P.; Martin, F.; Poulet, S.; Blanchard, F.; Cheddadi, R.; Dupouey, J.L.; Hulle, M.; Michaux, J.; Souissi, S.; Bridault, A.; Dambrine, E.; Gomez, B.; Thevenard, F.; Legendre, S.; Suc, J.P.; Zeitoun, V.; Bezancon, G.; Frascaria-Lacoste, N.; Ponsard, S.; Bourguet, D.; Vigne, J.D.; Doyen, L.; Joly, P.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Garnier, E.; Lebaron, Ph.; Boulinier, Th.; Chuine, I.; Jiguet, F.; Couvet, D.; Soussana, J.F.; Weimerskirsch, H.; Grosbois, V.; Bretagnolle, V.

    2006-01-01

    Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

  10. A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jeremy M.; Lajeunesse, Marc J.; Rohr, Jason R.

    2018-03-01

    Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1-5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level1, latitude6 and how phenological responses are measured7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.

  11. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  12. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  13. Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

  14. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  15. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecosystems Working Group,

    1998-09-23

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Models and experiments are equally important for developing process-level understanding into a predictive capability. To support both the development and testing of mechanistic ecosystem models, a two-tiered design of ecosystem experiments should be used. This design should include both (1) large-scale manipulative experiments for comprehensive testing of integrated ecosystem models and (2) multifactor, multilevel experiments for parameterization of process models across the critical range of interacting environmental factors (CO{sub 2}, temperature, water

  16. Joint sciences academies statement: global response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    Taking into account that there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring, the Joint Science Academies, urge, by this statement, all nations in the line with the UNFCCC principles, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies. Some recommendations are also given. (A.L.B.)

  17. Plant community mediation of ecosystem responses to global change factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churchill, A. C.

    2017-12-01

    Human alteration of the numerous environmental drivers affecting ecosystem processes is unprecedented in the last century, including changes in climate regimes and rapid increases in the availability of biologically active nitrogen (N). Plant communities may offer stabilizing or amplifying feedbacks mediating potential ecosystem responses to these alterations, and my research seeks to examine the conditions associated with when plant feedbacks are important for ecosystem change. My dissertation research focused on the unintended consequences of N deposition into natural landscapes, including alpine ecosystems which are particularly susceptible to adverse environmental impacts. In particular, I examined alpine plant and soil responses to N deposition 1) across multiple spatial scales throughout the Southern Rocky Mountains, 2) among diverse plant communities associated with unique environmental conditions common in the alpine of this region, and 3) among ecosystem pools of N contributing to stabilization of N inputs within those communities. I found that communities responded to inputs of N differently, often associated with traits of dominant plant species but these responses were intimately linked with the abiotic conditions of each independent community. Even so, statistical models predicting metrics of N processing in the alpine were improved by encompassing both abiotic and biotic components of the main community types.

  18. Evolutionary history of lagomorphs in response to global environmental change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyan Ge

    Full Text Available Although species within Lagomorpha are derived from a common ancestor, the distribution range and body size of its two extant groups, ochotonids and leporids, are quite differentiated. It is unclear what has driven their disparate evolutionary history. In this study, we compile and update all fossil records of Lagomorpha for the first time, to trace the evolutionary processes and infer their evolutionary history using mitochondrial genes, body length and distribution of extant species. We also compare the forage selection of extant species, which offers an insight into their future prospects. The earliest lagomorphs originated in Asia and later diversified in different continents. Within ochotonids, more than 20 genera occupied the period from the early Miocene to middle Miocene, whereas most of them became extinct during the transition from the Miocene to Pliocene. The peak diversity of the leporids occurred during the Miocene to Pliocene transition, while their diversity dramatically decreased in the late Quaternary. Mantel tests identified a positive correlation between body length and phylogenetic distance of lagomorphs. The body length of extant ochotonids shows a normal distribution, while the body length of extant leporids displays a non-normal pattern. We also find that the forage selection of extant pikas features a strong preference for C(3 plants, while for the diet of leporids, more than 16% of plant species are identified as C(4 (31% species are from Poaceae. The ability of several leporid species to consume C(4 plants is likely to result in their size increase and range expansion, most notably in Lepus. Expansion of C(4 plants in the late Miocene, the so-called 'nature's green revolution', induced by global environmental change, is suggested to be one of the major 'ecological opportunities', which probably drove large-scale extinction and range contraction of ochotonids, but inversely promoted diversification and range expansion of

  19. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  20. Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calfapietra, C.; Gielen, B.; Karnosky, D.; Ceulemans, R.; Scarascia Mugnozza, G.

    2010-01-01

    The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level. - Growth and management of agroforestry plantations will be influenced by climate change.

  1. Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calfapietra, C., E-mail: carlo.calfapietra@ibaf.cnr.i [Institute of Agro-Environmental and Forest Biology (IBAF), National Research Council (CNR), Via Salaria km 29300, 00015 Monterotondo Scalo, Roma (Italy); Gielen, B. [University of Antwerpen, Campus Drie Eiken, Department of Biology, Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Karnosky, D. [Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931 (United States); Ceulemans, R. [University of Antwerpen, Campus Drie Eiken, Department of Biology, Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Scarascia Mugnozza, G. [Department of Agronomy, Forestry and Land Use (DAF), Agricultural Research Council of Italy (CRA), Via del Caravita 7/a 00186 Roma (Italy)

    2010-04-15

    The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level. - Growth and management of agroforestry plantations will be influenced by climate change.

  2. Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calfapietra, C; Gielen, B; Karnosky, D; Ceulemans, R; Scarascia Mugnozza, G

    2010-04-01

    The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

  4. Globalized conflicts, globalized responses. Changing manners of contestation among indigenous communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benyei, Petra; Turreira Garcia, Nerea; Orta-Martínez, Martí

    2017-01-01

    In a globalized world, environmental conflicts affecting indigenous communities (including hunter-gatherer groups) have intensified and grown in their transnational character. These changes have affected the choice of manners of contestation of these groups, favouring in some cases the emergence...... activities and confront conflicts through a truly bottom-up approach. The chapter ends discussing how, despite the potential of such new manners of contestation, the power imbalances that currently underpin many indigenous conflicts are first to be addressed....

  5. A predictive framework to understand forest responses to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Sean M; Dietze, Michael C; Hersh, Michelle H; Moran, Emily V; Clark, James S

    2009-04-01

    Forests are one of Earth's critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predicting how different tree species might respond to this complex of forces remains a daunting challenge for forest ecologists. Yet shifts in species composition and abundance can radically influence hydrological and atmospheric systems, plant and animal ranges, and human populations, making this challenge an important one to address. Forest ecologists have gathered a great deal of data over the past decades and are now using novel quantitative and computational tools to translate those data into predictions about the fate of forests. Here, after a brief review of the threats to forests over the next century, one of the more promising approaches to making ecological predictions is described: using hierarchical Bayesian methods to model forest demography and simulating future forests from those models. This approach captures complex processes, such as seed dispersal and mortality, and incorporates uncertainty due to unknown mechanisms, data problems, and parameter uncertainty. After describing the approach, an example by simulating drought for a southeastern forest is offered. Finally, there is a discussion of how this approach and others need to be cast within a framework of prediction that strives to answer the important questions posed to environmental scientists, but does so with a respect for the challenges inherent in predicting the future of a complex biological system.

  6. Northern agriculture: constraints and responses to global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo J. N. Mela

    1996-05-01

    Full Text Available In the northern circumpolar zone, the area between the 600°Cd and 1200°Cd isopleths of effective temperature sum above 5°C, the annual receipt of solar energy is limited by the low angle of radiation arriving at the earth’s surface. This is the primary cause of the climatic constraints observed in the zone, such as low temperatures, a short growing season, frosts during the growing season, long and cold winters and thick snow cover. In Finland, the length of the growing season varies from 180 days in the south (60°N to 120 days in the north (70°N. Consequently, the growing time for crops from sowing to ripening is also short, which limits their ability to produce high yields. The most advanced forms of farming in the high-latitude zone are encountered towards the south in Northern Europe, central Siberia and the prairies of Canada, i.e. mainly in the phytogeographical hemiboreal zone where the effective temperature sum is higher than 1200°Cd. Conditions for agriculture then deteriorate gradually further north with the cooling of the climate, and this is reflected as an increase in cattle rearing at the expense of grain cultivation. In northern Europe farming is practised as far north as to the Arctic Circle, at about 66°N latitude. In North America, fields extend to about 55°N, In Asia, there are few fields north of 60°N. Finland is the most northern agricultural country in the world, with all its field area, about 2.5 million hectares, located north of latitude 60°N. Changes in the climate and atmospheric CO2 predicted for the future are likely to have a strong influence, either beneficial or disadvantageous, on the conditions for growth in northern areas where the annual mean temperature is 5°C or less.

  7. Cosmopolitan Species As Models for Ecophysiological Responses to Global Change: The Common Reed Phragmites australis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska Eller

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Phragmites australis is a cosmopolitan grass and often the dominant species in the ecosystems it inhabits. Due to high intraspecific diversity and phenotypic plasticity, P. australis has an extensive ecological amplitude and a great capacity to acclimate to adverse environmental conditions; it can therefore offer valuable insights into plant responses to global change. Here we review the ecology and ecophysiology of prominent P. australis lineages and their responses to multiple forms of global change. Key findings of our review are that: (1 P. australis lineages are well-adapted to regions of their phylogeographic origin and therefore respond differently to changes in climatic conditions such as temperature or atmospheric CO2; (2 each lineage consists of populations that may occur in geographically different habitats and contain multiple genotypes; (3 the phenotypic plasticity of functional and fitness-related traits of a genotype determine the responses to global change factors; (4 genotypes with high plasticity to environmental drivers may acclimate or even vastly expand their ranges, genotypes of medium plasticity must acclimate or experience range-shifts, and those with low plasticity may face local extinction; (5 responses to ancillary types of global change, like shifting levels of soil salinity, flooding, and drought, are not consistent within lineages and depend on adaptation of individual genotypes. These patterns suggest that the diverse lineages of P. australis will undergo intense selective pressure in the face of global change such that the distributions and interactions of co-occurring lineages, as well as those of genotypes within-lineages, are very likely to be altered. We propose that the strong latitudinal clines within and between P. australis lineages can be a useful tool for predicting plant responses to climate change in general and present a conceptual framework for using P. australis lineages to predict plant responses

  8. Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium; Biodiversite et changement global. Reponses adaptatives au changement global: resultats et prospective. Colloque de restitution IFB-GICC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Despres, L; Hossaert-Mckey, M; Martin, J F; Pont, D; Valero, M; Chave, J; Benizri, E; Amiaud, B; Boury-Esnault, N; Fritz, H; Lavelle, P; Martin, F; Poulet, S; Blanchard, F; Cheddadi, R; Dupouey, J L; Hulle, M; Michaux, J; Souissi, S; Bridault, A; Dambrine, E; Gomez, B; Thevenard, F; Legendre, S; Suc, J P; Zeitoun, V; Bezancon, G; Frascaria-Lacoste, N; Ponsard, S; Bourguet, D; Vigne, J D; Doyen, L; Joly, P; Gourlet-Fleury, S; Garnier, E; Lebaron, Ph; Boulinier, Th; Chuine, I; Jiguet, F; Couvet, D; Soussana, J F; Weimerskirsch, H; Grosbois, V; Bretagnolle, V

    2006-07-01

    Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

  9. Evolutionary History Underlies Plant Physiological Responses to Global Change Since the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becklin, K. M.; Medeiros, J. S.; Sale, K. R.; Ward, J. K.

    2014-12-01

    Assessing family and species-level variation in physiological responses to global change across geologic time is critical for understanding factors that underlie changes in species distributions and community composition. Ancient plant specimens preserved within packrat middens are invaluable in this context since they allow for comparisons between co-occurring plant lineages. Here we used modern and ancient plant specimens preserved within packrat middens from the Snake Range, NV to investigate the physiological responses of a mixed montane conifer community to global change since the last glacial maximum. We used a conceptual model to infer relative changes in stomatal conductance and maximum photosynthetic capacity from measures of leaf carbon isotopes, stomatal characteristics, and leaf nitrogen content. Our results indicate that most of the sampled taxa decreased stomatal conductance and/or photosynthetic capacity from glacial to modern times. However, plant families differed in the timing and magnitude of these physiological responses. Additionally, leaf-level responses were more similar within plant families than within co-occurring species assemblages. This suggests that adaptation at the level of leaf physiology may not be the main determinant of shifts in community composition, and that plant evolutionary history may drive physiological adaptation to global change over recent geologic time.

  10. Linking above and belowground responses to global change at community and ecosystem scales.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antoninka, Anita [Northern Arizona University; Wolf, Julie [Northern Arizona University; Bowker, Matt [Northern Arizona University; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL; JohnsonPhD, Dr Nancy C [Northern Arizona University

    2009-01-01

    Cryptic belowground organisms are difficult to observe and their responses to global changes are not well understood. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that interactions among above- and belowground communities may mediate ecosystem responses to global change. We used grassland mesocosms to manipulate the abundance of one important group of soil organisms, arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, and to study community and ecosystem responses to CO2 and N enrichment. After two growing seasons, biomass responses of plant communities were recorded, and soil community responses were measured using microscopy, phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) and community-level physiological profiles (CLPP). Ecosystem responses were examined by measuring net primary production (NPP), evapotranspiration, total soil organic matter (SOM), and extractable mineral N. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the causal relationships among treatments and response variables. We found that while CO2 and N tended to directly impact ecosystem functions (evapotranspiration and NPP, respectively), AM fungi indirectly impacted ecosystem functions by strongly influencing the composition of plant and soil communities. For example, the presence of AM fungi had a strong influence on other root and soil fungi and soil bacteria. We found that the mycotrophic status of the dominant plant species in the mesocosms determined whether the presence of AM fungi increased or decreased NPP. Mycotrophic grasses dominated the mesocosm communities during the first growing season, and thus, the mycorrhizal treatments had the highest NPP. In contrast, non-mycotrophic forbs were dominant during the second growing season and thus, the mycorrhizal treatments had the lowest NPP. The composition of the plant community strongly influenced soil N; and the composition of the soil organisms strongly influenced SOM accumulation in the mesocosms. These results show how linkages between above- and belowground communities

  11. Mutualism and impacts of global change: response of an important and neglected component of the biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossaert-Mckey, M.

    2007-01-01

    We are studying the impact of global change on two obligate species-specific insect-plant mutualisms. Our approach combines correlative methods (examining spatial patterns of genetic diversity in populations of pairs of mutualists, to examine their responses to past climate change) and experiments (studying responses of plant partners to CO 2 fertilization). Mutualisms function because the partners have contrasting and complementary biological traits, so that a service implying only a low cost to one partner may confer a great benefit to the other. Because they can lead mutualist partners to respond differently to rapid ecological change, the biological differences that are fundamental to mutualisms may also make them vulnerable. Imbalances thereby introduced can disrupt the functioning of the mutualism. By comparing two strongly contrasting systems-fig/wasp pollination mutualisms and ant-plant protection mutualisms-we aim to characterize the diversity of responses of mutualisms to global change. By identifying points in common, we also aim to propose robust generalizations about the response to global change of obligate, specific mutualisms, an important and neglected component of tropical biodiversity. Our results show that the two mutualisms studied differ greatly in their response to Pleistocene and Holocene climatic fluctuations. Fig/wasp systems show little spatial genetic differentiation, indicating that the great dispersal capacities of both figs and their pollinating wasps resulted in maintenance of high effective population sizes throughout cycles of climatic and vegetation change. In contrast, limited dispersal capacity of both ant and plant partners has resulted in greater impact of climatic fluctuations on ant/plant protection mutualisms: species-distribution patterns suggest restriction of the system to refugia, and strong spatial genetic structure indicates widespread bottlenecks during fragmentation and expansion. Alternate contraction and expansion

  12. Changes in butterfly abundance in response to global warming and reforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Tae-Sung; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Byun, Bong-Kyu; Lim, Jong-Hwan; Shin, Joon Hwan

    2010-04-01

    In the Republic of Korea, most denuded forest lands have been restored since the 1960s. In addition, the annual mean temperature in the Republic of Korea has increased approximately 1.0 degrees C during the last century, which is higher than the global mean increase of 0.74 degrees C. Such rapid environmental changes may have resulted in changes in the local butterfly fauna. For example, the number of butterflies inhabiting forests may have increased because of reforestation, whereas the number of butterflies inhabiting grasslands may have declined. Furthermore, the number of northern butterflies may have declined, whereas the number of southern butterflies may have increased in response to global warming. Therefore, we compared current data (2002 approximately 2007) regarding the abundance of butterfly species at two sites in the central portion of the Korean Peninsula to data from the late 1950s and early 1970s for the same sites. Changes in the abundance rank of each species between the two periods were evaluated to determine whether any patterns corresponded to the predicted temporal changes. The predicted changes in butterfly abundance were confirmed in this study. In addition, the results showed a different response to habitat change between northern and southern species. In northern butterfly species, butterflies inhabiting forests increased, whereas those inhabiting grasslands declined. However, the opposite was true when southern butterfly species were evaluated. Changes in the abundance indicate that habitat change may be one of the key factors related to the survival of populations that remain around the southern boundary of butterfly species.

  13. Defining the next generation modeling of coastal ecotone dynamics in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Teh, Su-Y; Krauss, Ken W.; Wang, Hongqing; Haidong, Li; Smith, Thomas; Koh, Hock L.

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global change; e.g., sea level rise (SLR) and extreme events. Over the past century, global change has resulted in salt-tolerant (halophytic) plant species migrating into upland salt-intolerant (glycophytic) dominated habitats along major rivers and large wetland expanses along the coast. While habitat transitions can be abrupt, modeling the specific drivers of abrupt change between halophytic and glycophytic vegetation is not a simple task. Correlative studies, which dominate the literature, are unlikely to establish ultimate causation for habitat shifts, and do not generate strong predictive capacity for coastal land managers and climate change adaptation exercises. In this paper, we first review possible drivers of ecotone shifts for coastal wetlands, our understanding of which has expanded rapidly in recent years. Any exogenous factor that increases growth or establishment of halophytic species will favor the ecotone boundary moving upslope. However, internal feedbacks between vegetation and the environment, through which vegetation modifies the local microhabitat (e.g., by changing salinity or surface elevation), can either help the system become resilient to future changes or strengthen ecotone migration. Following this idea, we review a succession of models that have provided progressively better insight into the relative importance of internal positive feedbacks versus external environmental factors. We end with developing a theoretical model to show that both abrupt environmental gradients and internal positive feedbacks can generate the sharp ecotonal boundaries that we commonly see, and we demonstrate that the responses to gradual global change (e.g., SLR) can be quite diverse.

  14. Forest responses to tropospheric ozone and global climate change: an analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kickert, R N; Krupa, S V

    1990-01-01

    In this paper an analysis is provided on: what we know, what we need to know, and what we need to do, to further our understanding of the relationships between tropospheric ozone (O(3)), global climate change and forest responses. The relationships between global geographic distributions of forest ecosystems and potential geographic regions of high photochemical smog by the year 2025 AD are described. While the emphasis is on the effects of tropospheric O(3) on forest ecosystems, discussion is presented to understand such effects in the context of global climate change. One particular strong point of this paper is the audit of published surface O(3) data by photochemical smog region that reveals important forest/woodland geographic regions where little or no O(3) data exist even though the potential threat to forests in those regions appears to be large. The concepts and considerations relevant to the examination of ecosystem responses as a whole, rather than simply tree stands alone are reviewed. A brief argument is provided to stimulate the modification of the concept of simple cause and effect relationships in viewing total ecosystems. Our knowledge of O(3) exposure and its effects on the energy, nutrient and hydrological flow within the ecosystem are described. Modeling strategies for such systems are reviewed. A discussion of responses of forests to potential multiple climatic changes is provided. An important concept in this paper is that changes in water exchange processes throughout the hydrological cycle can be used as early warning indicators of forest responses to O(3). Another strength of this paper is the integration of information on structural and functional processes of ecosystems and their responses to O(3). An admitted weakness of this analysis is that the information on integrated ecosystem responses is based overwhelmingly on the San Bernardino Forest ecosystem research program of the 1970s because of a lack of similar studies. In the final

  15. Managing the global commons decision making and conflict resolution in response to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Naegeli, W.; Lund, P. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (USA))

    1990-07-01

    A workshop was convened to develop a better understanding of decision-making matters concerning management of the global commons and to resolve conflicts in response to climate change. This workshop report does not provide a narrative of the proceedings. The workshop program is included, as are the abstracts of the papers that were presented. Only the introductory paper on social science research by William Riebsame and the closing summary by Richard Rockwell are reprinted here. This brief report focuses instead on the deliberations of the working groups that developed during the workshop. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  16. A regional response to global climate change: New England and eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houtman, N.

    1994-01-01

    Resource managers, scientists, and policy makers from New England and eastern Canada assembled at a 1993 symposium to consider the regional implications of global climate change and to develop state and provincial adaptation strategies. A summary is presented of issues discussed at this meeting, information gaps identified, and recommendations for an appropriate regional response. The symposium began with a regional overview and a review of the climate system and possible environmental impacts of global warming. Policy implications were also discussed. Working groups considered issues related to energy use, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, recreation and tourism, and sea level rise. Given the remaining uncertainties about the timing and extent of global warming, especially on a regional scale, the symposium recommended adoption of a series of measures which are beneficial in their own right and in the face of present variations of climate and its extremes. The recommendations were characterized by three broad themes: diversification of the natural resources based economy; risks to human health, ecological communities, and economic infrastructure; and information development and sharing. Proposed strategies were grouped in four major categories: adaptation to future changes; trend assessment; education; and limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

  17. Species as Stressors: Heterospecific Interactions and the Cellular Stress Response under Global Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunderson, Alex R; King, Emily E; Boyer, Kirsten; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2017-07-01

    Anthropogenic global change is predicted to increase the physiological stress of organisms through changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature, pH, and pollution. However, organisms can also experience physiological stress through interactions with other species, especially parasites, predators, and competitors. The stress of species interactions could be an important driver of species' responses to global change as the composition of biological communities change through factors such as distributional and phenological shifts. Interactions between biotic and abiotic stressors could also induce non-linear physiological stress responses under global change. One of the primary means by which organisms deal with physiological stress is through the cellular stress response (CSR), which is broadly the upregulation of a conserved set of genes that facilitate the removal and repair of damaged macromolecules. Here, we present data on behavioral interactions and CSR gene expression for two competing species of intertidal zone porcelain crab (Petrolisthes cinctipes and Petrolisthes manimaculis). We found that P. cinctipes and P. manimaculis engage in more agonistic behaviors when interacting with heterospecifics than conspecifics; however, we found no evidence that heterospecific interactions induced a CSR in these species. In addition to our new data, we review the literature with respect to CSR induction via species interactions, focusing on predator-prey systems and heterospecific competition. We find extensive evidence for predators to induce cellular stress and aspects of the CSR in prey, even in the absence of direct physical contact between species. Effects of heterospecific competition on the CSR have been studied far less, but we do find evidence that agonistic interactions with heterospecifics can induce components of the CSR. Across all published studies, there is clear evidence that species interactions can lead to cellular stress and induction of the CSR

  18. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

    2014-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  19. Soil Response to Global Change: Soil Process Domains and Pedogenic Thresholds (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, O.; Kramer, M. G.; Chorover, J.

    2013-12-01

    The capacity of soil to withstand perturbations, whether driven by climate, land use change, or spread of invasive species, depends on its chemical composition and physical state. The dynamic interplay between stable, well buffered soil process domains and thresholds in soil state and function is a strong determinant of soil response to forcing from global change. In terrestrial ecosystems, edaphic responses are often mediated by availability of water and its flux into and through soils. Water influences soil processes in several ways: it supports biological production, hence proton-donor, electron-donor and complexing-ligand production; it determines the advective removal of dissolution products, and it can promote anoxia that leads microorganisms to utilize alternative electron acceptors. As a consequence climate patterns strongly influence global distribution of soil, although within region variability is governed by other factors such as landscape age, parent material and human land use. By contrast, soil properties can vary greatly among climate regions, variation which is guided by the functioning of a suite of chemical processes that tend to maintain chemical status quo. This soil 'buffering' involves acid-base reactions as minerals weather and oxidation-reduction reactions that are driven by microbial respiration. At the planetary scale, soil pH provides a reasonable indicator of process domains and varies from about 3.5 to10, globally, although most soils lie between about 4.5 and 8.5. Those that are above 7.5 are strongly buffered by the carbonate system, those that are characterized by neutral pH (7.5-6) are buffered by release of non-hydrolyzing cations from primary minerals and colloid surfaces, and those that are buffered by hydrolytic aluminum on colloidal surfaces. Alkali and alkaline (with the exception of limestone parent material) soils are usually associated with arid and semiarid conditions, neutral pH soils with young soils in both dry and wet

  20. Photographs and herbarium specimens as tools to document phenological changes in response to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Primack, Richard B; Primack, Daniel; Mukunda, Sharda

    2006-11-01

    Global warming is affecting natural systems across the world. Of the biological responses to warming, changes in the timing of phenological events such as flowering are among the most sensitive. Despite the recognized importance of phenological changes, the limited number of long-term records of phenological events has restricted research on the topic in most areas of the world. In a previous study in Boston (American Journal of Botany 91: 1260-1264), we used herbarium specimens and one season of field observations to show that plants flowered earlier as the climate warmed over the past 100 yr. In our new study, we found that two extra years of data did not strengthen the explanatory power of the analysis. Analysis of herbarium specimens without any field data yielded results similar to analyses that included field observations. In addition, we found that photographs of cultivated and wild plants in Massachusetts, data similar to that contained in herbarium specimens, show changes in flowering times that closely match independent data on the same species in the same locations. Dated photographs of plants in flower represent a new resource to extend the range of species and localities addressed in global-warming research.

  1. Gene expression profiling--Opening the black box of plant ecosystem responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leakey, A.D.B.; Ainsworth, E.A.; Bernard, S.M.; Markelz, R.J.C.; Ort, D.R.; Placella, S.A.P.; Rogers, A.; Smith, M.D.; Sudderth, E.A.; Weston, D.J.; Wullschleger, S.D.; Yuan, S.

    2009-11-01

    The use of genomic techniques to address ecological questions is emerging as the field of genomic ecology. Experimentation under environmentally realistic conditions to investigate the molecular response of plants to meaningful changes in growth conditions and ecological interactions is the defining feature of genomic ecology. Since the impact of global change factors on plant performance are mediated by direct effects at the molecular, biochemical and physiological scales, gene expression analysis promises important advances in understanding factors that have previously been consigned to the 'black box' of unknown mechanism. Various tools and approaches are available for assessing gene expression in model and non-model species as part of global change biology studies. Each approach has its own unique advantages and constraints. A first generation of genomic ecology studies in managed ecosystems and mesocosms have provided a testbed for the approach and have begun to reveal how the experimental design and data analysis of gene expression studies can be tailored for use in an ecological context.

  2. Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey

    2016-01-01

    Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil...... functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global...

  3. Human response to environmental change in the perspective of future, global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butzer, Karl W.

    1983-05-01

    Human response to severe environmental stress is conceived and implemented by individuals, but must be approved by the group. These decisions are made with respect to perceived circumstances. Societies are enmeshed within adaptive systems that provide a matrix of opportunities and constraints for a wide range of potential behavioral variability. Such systems repeatedly readjust to short-term crises, e.g., droughts, but persistent and severe environmental stress may require substantial revision of adaptive strategies. The Sahel drought of 1968-1973 is an example of a brief but severe crisis, recurring along the Saharan margins perhaps once every 30 years. Closer inspection shows links between intensified intertribal warfare and ecological stress in the lower Omo Valley. The decline of the Egyptian New Kingdom during the 12th century B.C., in response to economic stagnation, sociopolitical instability, dynastic weakness, foreign pressures, and poor Nile floods over 50-70 years, represents a more complex and fundamental modification, with systemic simplification lasting 450 years. Such insights can be applied to future, global climatic change due to increasing atmospheric CO 2. Simulation and paleoclimatic experience suggest a drier climate for the North American and Soviet breadbaskets, to threaten world food supplies at a time of maximum demographic pressures and declining resources. Public perception and remedial planning should receive the attention of Quaternary scientists, in order to preempt an involuntary, global, systemic simplification.

  4. Issues in evaluation of ecosystem change in response to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Shevliakova, E.; Kandlikar, M.

    1994-12-31

    Uncertainty analysis of our integrated climate assessment model has revealed the importance of obtaining better market and non-market impacts. Improving market and non-market damage assessments has necessitated advances in the theoretical and applied dimensions of the problem. The assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystems provides a severe test for the new ideas being put forward. This paper provides a brief overview of, (i) the challenges inherent in modeling ecosystem dynamics; (ii) the problem of selecting an appropriate metric of change; and, (iii) the thorny issue of how to place a monetary value on market and non-market impacts. We focus on two central issues in estimation of impacts: (i) before climate change, are the systems being impacted (both ecological and economic) in equilibrium? and (ii) how quickly do ecological and related economic systems adapt to change? In addition, we attempt to be comprehensive in laying out the magnitude of the challenge ahead.

  5. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2018-01-01

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  7. Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

    2000-01-01

    A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

  8. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G; Terando, Adam J; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

    2015-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  9. Phytoplankton niches, traits and eco-evolutionary responses to global environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Litchman, Elena; Edwards, Kyle F.; Klausmeier, Christopher A.

    2012-01-01

    Phytoplankton are major primary producers in aquatic ecosystems and are sensitive to various aspects of global environmental change. They can respond through phenotypic plasticity, species sorting, genetic adaptation, or a combination of these processes. Here we present conceptual, experimental...

  10. Contemplating Catastrophe: conveying the causes, effects, risks of and responses to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, M.; Berbeco, M.; Lahsen, M.

    2013-12-01

    Humans are changing nature and undermining the life supporting systems of the planet to an unprecedented extent, eroding more soil than all natural processes combined, fixing more nitrogen than all the bacteria on the planet, and substantially altering the land cover and chemistry of the atmosphere and waters. Yet, especially in the United States but also elsewhere, environmental awareness and policy action has been lackluster and hesitant due to a range of factors, including manufactured doubt and denial, psychological, cultural and economic investments in maintenance of status quo, and - when concern does exist - lack of knowledge about how to foster effective change. This paper will examine how recent research findings on human impacts on the planet are being conveyed to non-technical audiences and discuss challenges and opportunities to provide the public with the relevant knowledge and knowhow to address the risks of, and responses to global change. It will argue that a second-wave scientific literacy consisting in deeper understanding of the scientific process must be nurtured as part of a process to capacitate populations, especially youths, to navigate conflicting evidence and claims that surround many environmental threats. Such literacy must be fostered through 'learning conversations,' community and capacity-building, and integrated education, communication and outreach infusing science and solutions to foster a more effective approach to confronting potential catastrophe. 25 February 2013 at 16:30 Pacific Time

  11. Dryland responses to global change suggest the potential for rapid non-linear responses to some changes but resilience to others

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, S.; Ferrenberg, S.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.; Wertin, T. M.; McHugh, T. A.; Morrissey, E.; Kuske, C.; Belnap, J.

    2017-12-01

    Drylands represent our planet's largest terrestrial biome, making up over 35% of Earth's land surface. In the context of this vast areal extent, it is no surprise that recent research suggests dryland inter-annual variability and responses to change have the potential to drive biogeochemical cycles and climate at the global-scale. Further, the data we do have suggest drylands can respond rapidly and non-linearly to change. Nevertheless, our understanding of the cross-system consistency of and mechanisms behind dryland responses to a changed environment remains relatively poor. This poor understanding hinders not only our larger understanding of terrestrial ecosystem function, but also our capacity to forecast future global biogeochemical cycles and climate. Here we present data from a series of Colorado Plateau manipulation experiments - including climate, land use, and nitrogen deposition manipulations - to explore how vascular plants, microbial communities, and biological soil crusts (a community of mosses, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria living in the interspace among vascular plants in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide) respond to a host of environmental changes. These responses include not only assessments of community composition, but of their function as well. We will explore photosynthesis, net soil CO2 exchange, soil carbon stocks and chemistry, albedo, and nutrient cycling. The experiments were begun with independent questions and cover a range of environmental change drivers and scientific approaches, but together offer a relatively holistic picture of how some drylands can change their structure and function in response to change. In particular, the data show very high ecosystem vulnerability to particular drivers, but surprising resilience to others, suggesting a multi-faceted response of these diverse systems.

  12. The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change: Towards an integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rustad, Lindsey E.

    2008-01-01

    Accumulating evidence points to an anthropogenic 'fingerprint' on the global climate change that has occurred in the last century. Climate change has, and will continue to have, profound effects on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. As such, there is a critical need to continue to develop a sound scientific basis for national and international policies regulating carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reflects on the nature of current global change experiments, and provides recommendations for a unified multidisciplinary approach to future research in this dynamic field. These recommendations include: (1) better integration between experiments and models, and amongst experimental, monitoring, and space-for-time studies; (2) stable and increased support for long-term studies and multi-factor experiments; (3) explicit inclusion of biodiversity, disturbance, and extreme events in experiments and models; (4) consideration of timing vs intensity of global change factors in experiments and models; (5) evaluation of potential thresholds or ecosystem 'tipping points'; and (6) increased support for model-model and model-experiment comparisons. These recommendations, which reflect discussions within the TERACC international network of global change scientists, will facilitate the unraveling of the complex direct and indirect effects of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and their components

  13. Threshold responses to interacting global changes in a California grassland ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Christopher [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Mooney, Harold [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Vitousek, Peter [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2015-02-02

    Building on the history and infrastructure of the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment, we conducted experiments to explore the potential for single and combined global changes to stimulate fundamental type changes in ecosystems that start the experiment as California annual grassland. Using a carefully orchestrated set of seedling introductions, followed by careful study and later removal, the grassland was poised to enable two major kinds of transitions that occur in real life and that have major implications for ecosystem structure, function, and services. These are transitions from grassland to shrubland/forest and grassland to thistle patch. The experiment took place in the context of 4 global change factors – warming, elevated CO2, N deposition, and increased precipitation – in a full-factorial array, present as all possible 1, 2, 3, and 4-factor combinations, with each combination replicated 8 times.

  14. Global transcriptional responses of Pseudomonas syringae DC3000 to changes in iron bioavailability in vitro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rutzke Michael

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pseudomonas syringae pv tomato DC3000 (DC3000 is a Gram-negative model plant pathogen that is found in a wide variety of environments. To survive in these diverse conditions it must sense and respond to various environmental cues. One micronutrient required for most forms of life is iron. Bioavailable iron has been shown to be an important global regulator for many bacteria where it not only regulates a wide variety of genes involved in general cell physiology but also virulence determinants. In this study we used microarrays to study differential gene regulation in DC3000 in response to changes in levels of cell-associated iron. Results DC3000 cultures were grown under highly controlled conditions and analyzed after the addition of iron citrate or sodium citrate to the media. In the cultures supplemented with iron, we found that cell-associated iron increased rapidly while culture densities were not significantly different over 4 hours when compared to cultures with sodium citrate added. Microarray analysis of samples taken from before and after the addition of either sodium citrate or iron citrate identified 386 differentially regulated genes with high statistical confidence. Differentially regulated genes were clustered based on expression patterns observed between comparison of samples taken at different time points and with different supplements. This analysis grouped genes associated with the same regulatory motifs and/or had similar putative or known function. Conclusion This study shows iron is rapidly taken up from the medium by iron-depleted DC3000 cultures and that bioavailable iron is a global cue for the expression of iron transport, storage, and known virulence factors in DC3000. Furthermore approximately 34% of the differentially regulated genes are associated with one of four regulatory motifs for Fur, PvdS, HrpL, or RpoD.

  15. Differential responses of Miocene rodent metacommunities to global climatic changes were mediated by environmental context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Fernando; Gómez Cano, Ana Rosa; Cantalapiedra, Juan L; Domingo, M Soledad; Domingo, Laura; Menéndez, Iris; Flynn, Lawrence J; Hernández Fernández, Manuel

    2018-02-06

    The study of how long-term changes affect metacommunities is a relevant topic, that involves the evaluation of connections among biological assemblages across different spatio-temporal scales, in order to fully understand links between global changes and macroevolutionary patterns. We applied multivariate statistical analyses and diversity tests using a large data matrix of rodent fossil sites in order to analyse long-term faunal changes. Late Miocene rodent faunas from southwestern Europe were classified into metacommunities, presumably sharing ecological affinities, which followed temporal and environmental non-random assembly and disassembly patterns. Metacommunity dynamics of these faunas were driven by environmental changes associated with temperature variability, but there was also some influence from the aridity shifts described for this region during the late Miocene. Additionally, while variations in the structure of rodent assemblages were directly influenced by global climatic changes in the southern province, the northern sites showed a pattern of climatic influence mediated by diversity-dependent processes.

  16. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  17. Bringing the material back in: US responses to the global climate change regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.

    2006-01-01

    Since environmental sociology was born as a sub-discipline of sociology, its proponents have encouraged sociological research that incorporates environmental factors. After a quarter of a century, however, sociological research continues to overlook the role of environmental factors - even when the object of the research is to understand an environmental issue. This paper analyzes the role of environmental factors to understand the ways that natural resource interests have been translated into political outcome in the form of American responses to the potential regulation of greenhouse gases. Incorporating data about natural resource use and national decision-making both before and after the Bush Administration's decision to pull out of negotiations for the Kyoto Protocol, this paper concludes that comprehending fully political decisions about global climate change in the United States requires that we recognize the conjoint constitution between policy-making and the environmental factors that are affected by such policies. More broadly, this research supports the notion that, in order to understand social phenomena more fully, sociologists must recommit to bringing environmental factors into social research. (author)

  18. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  19. Response of permafrost to projected climate change: Results from global offline model simulations with JSBACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blome, Tanja; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian; Hagemann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. In order to assess the response of permafrost to projected climate change for the 21st century, the land surface scheme of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, JSBACH, has recently been equipped with the important physical processes for permafrost studies, and was driven globally with bias corrected climate data, thereby spanning a period from 1850 until 2100. The applied land surface scheme JSBACH now considers the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. To address the uncertainty range arising through different greenhouse gas concentrations as well as through different climate realisations when using various climate models, combinations of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and two GCMs were used as driving data. In order to focus only on the climatic impact on permafrost, effects due to feedbacks between climate and permafrost (namely via carbon fluxes between land and atmosphere) are excluded in the experiments

  20. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  1. Nitrogen transformations in response to temperature and rainfall manipulation in oak savanna: A global change experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellman, R. L.; Boutton, T. W.; Tjoelker, M. G.; Volder, A.; Briske, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    nitrification (1.581 mg NO2-/NO3- -N/ kg soil/day) were in juniper monocultures during fall and spring in redistributed rainfall treatments. Lowest rates of ammonification (0.002 mg NH4+ -N/ kg soil/day) occurred under grass during fall and winter in redistributed rainfall plots, while lowest rates of nitrification (-0.016 mg NO2-/NO3- -N/ kg soil/day) were in juniper-grass mixtures during fall and winter in redistributed rainfall plots. Losses of N through leaching were highest in the same treatment combinations that had high rates of nitrification. Results indicate that while rainfall redistribution interacted strongly with other experimental treatments to influence rates of N-transformations, warming had little effect. These changes in rates of N-transformations and leaching losses in response to global change drivers may have important implications for net primary production, soil fertility, carbon storage, trace gas fluxes, water quality, interspecific interactions, and vegetation dynamics in the oak savanna region of North America.

  2. Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Claire S; Converse, Sarah J; Fagan, William F; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

    2016-09-06

    Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

  3. Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Claire S.; Converse, Sarah J.; Fagan, William F.; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B.; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

  4. The petroleum industry's response to climate change: The role of the IPIECA Global Climate Change Working Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemlin, J.S.; Graham Bryce, I.

    1994-01-01

    IPIECA formed the Global Climate Change Working Group in 1988 to coordinate members' efforts to understand the global climate change issue, to promote support for education and research, and to serve as the focus for engaging with international activities. The working group has sponsored a number of activities, including seminars and workshops. The Lisbon Experts Workshop on Socio-Economic Assessment of Climate Change in 1993 represents the most recent IPIECA forum for interaction between industry experts and those involved in the production of the IPCC 1995 Second Assessment Report. This workshop is described in the article. (author)

  5. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  6. Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lladó, Salvador; López-Mondéjar, Rubén; Baldrian, Petr

    2017-06-01

    The ecology of forest soils is an important field of research due to the role of forests as carbon sinks. Consequently, a significant amount of information has been accumulated concerning their ecology, especially for temperate and boreal forests. Although most studies have focused on fungi, forest soil bacteria also play important roles in this environment. In forest soils, bacteria inhabit multiple habitats with specific properties, including bulk soil, rhizosphere, litter, and deadwood habitats, where their communities are shaped by nutrient availability and biotic interactions. Bacteria contribute to a range of essential soil processes involved in the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. They take part in the decomposition of dead plant biomass and are highly important for the decomposition of dead fungal mycelia. In rhizospheres of forest trees, bacteria interact with plant roots and mycorrhizal fungi as commensalists or mycorrhiza helpers. Bacteria also mediate multiple critical steps in the nitrogen cycle, including N fixation. Bacterial communities in forest soils respond to the effects of global change, such as climate warming, increased levels of carbon dioxide, or anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. This response, however, often reflects the specificities of each studied forest ecosystem, and it is still impossible to fully incorporate bacteria into predictive models. The understanding of bacterial ecology in forest soils has advanced dramatically in recent years, but it is still incomplete. The exact extent of the contribution of bacteria to forest ecosystem processes will be recognized only in the future, when the activities of all soil community members are studied simultaneously. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  7. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  8. Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

    2010-11-01

    ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

  9. Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

    1980-01-01

    Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

  10. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  11. World environmental policy. Conceptual approaches of German political science in response to the challenges of Global Change; Weltumweltpolitik - Global Change als Herausforderung fuer die deutsche Politikwissenschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biermann, F. [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Dingwerth, K. [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Fachbereich Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften

    2001-12-01

    This paper describes, first, the international community of social scientists working on global change, and elaborates on possible contributions to this community by German political scientists. Second, the paper examines three new conceptual approaches to analysing global change, namely the Syndromes of Global Change approach, Earth System Analysis, and Sustainability Science. The paper then elaborates on a number of ways in which German political science could respond to the academic and political challenges posed by global change. It concludes by emphasizing the need for a new approach, focusing on 'world environmental policy analysis' that would bridge traditional (environmental) policy analysis, international relations research, and comparative politics. (orig.) [German] Der Aufsatz beschreibt die Wissenschaftslandschaft der internationalen sozialwissenschaftlichen Global-Change-Forschung mit besonderem Augenmerk auf moegliche Beitraege der deutschen Politologie. Mit den 'Syndromen des Globalen Wandels', der 'Erdsystemanalyse' und der 'Nachhaltigkeitswissenschaft' werden drei neuere konzeptionelle Innovationen vorgestellt, mit denen der Herausforderung des Globalen Wandels begegnet werden soll. Anschliessend werden Wege skizziert, wie die Politikwissenschaft auf die neuen gesellschaftlichen und wissenschaftlichen Probleme des Globalen Wandels reagieren koennte. Eine Schlussfolgerung ist ein Plaedoyer fuer die Entwicklung einer eigenstaendigen Weltumweltpolitik-Analyse an der Schnittstelle von traditioneller Policy-Analyse, Internationalen Beziehungen/Aussenpolitik sowie Komparatistik. (orig./CB)

  12. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

  13. Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2013-01-01

    Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172

  14. Cosmopolitan species as ecophysiological models for responses to global change: the common reed Phragmites australis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eller, F.; Skálová, Hana; Caplan, J. S.; Bhattarai, G. P.; Burger, M. K.; Cronin, J. T.; Guo, Wen-Yong; Guo, X.; Hazelton, E. L. G.; Kettenring, K. M.; Lambertini, C.; McCormick, M. K.; Meyerson, L. A.; Mozdzer, T. J.; Pyšek, Petr; Sorrell, B. K.; Whigham, D. F.; Brixi, H.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 8, NOV 16 (2017), s. 1-24, č. článku 1833. ISSN 1664-462X R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G; GA ČR(CZ) GA14-15414S Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Phragmites * ecophysiology * global change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 4.298, year: 2016

  15. Biodiversity and global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Solbrig, Otto Thomas; Emden, H. M. van; Oordt, P. G. W. J. van; Solbrig, Otto T

    1992-01-01

    The IUBS symposium "Biodiversity and Global Change" held during the 24th General Assembly, 1-6 September, 1991, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, represented the first attempt to address the issue of bio...

  16. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  17. Global climate change. Economic dimensions of a cooperative international policy response beyond 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to assess the economic implications of a range of international abatement strategies and to identify the most cost effective approaches to achieve given environmental objectives. International responses to concerns about global warming are discussed and trends in sectoral and global patterns of production, consumption and trade are examined with a view to providing a business as-usual scenario for carbon dioxide emissions to the year 2020. The study uses a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, MEGABARE. Simulation results for alternative stabilisation and emission reduction targets are also presented. Policy options are evaluated in terms of their effectiveness in stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions and impact on economic welfare in various countries and regions, including an analysis of the feedhack effects of policies on developing countries. Equity principles and rules, and joint implementation issues are also considered. The focus is on designing approaches to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by the same amount as stabilisation policies, but at lower cost to the international community and with more equitable sharing of costs. An analysis of tradable carbon dioxide emission quota schemes is provided and some broad policy conclusions are noted in the final chapter on the economic impacts of emission abatement policies. 84 refs., 22 tabs., 50 figs

  18. Response of Freshwater Systems to Local and Global Changes in Mercury Emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levin L.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Lakes and other waterways, and the biota in those waterways, receiving their mercury burden primarily via atmospheric deposition can be expected to exhibit responses to changes in deposition over an extended time period. A projected control strategy for power plant emissions of mercury was imposed on modeled U.S. plants, while international emissions were modeled for two Chinese emission scenarios: a “business-as-usual” scenario and an “expedited controls” scenario. Levels of mercury in fish were simulated in a New England lake located close to a large U.S. power plant. Results indicated that fish responses to mercury emissions changes were spread over several years, and that even severe reductions in U.S. emissions were masked by non-U.S. emissions growth.

  19. Different Mechanisms of Soil Microbial Response to Global Change Result in Different Outcomes in the MIMICS-CN Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyker-Snowman, E.; Wieder, W. R.; Grandy, S.

    2017-12-01

    Microbial-explicit models of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling have improved upon simulations of C and N stocks and flows at site-to-global scales relative to traditional first-order linear models. However, the response of microbial-explicit soil models to global change factors depends upon which parameters and processes in a model are altered by those factors. We used the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization Model with coupled N cycling (MIMICS-CN) to compare modeled responses to changes in temperature and plant inputs at two previously-modeled sites (Harvard Forest and Kellogg Biological Station). We spun the model up to equilibrium, applied each perturbation, and evaluated 15 years of post-perturbation C and N pools and fluxes. To model the effect of increasing temperatures, we independently examined the impact of decreasing microbial C use efficiency (CUE), increasing the rate of microbial turnover, and increasing Michaelis-Menten kinetic rates of litter decomposition, plus several combinations of the three. For plant inputs, we ran simulations with stepwise increases in metabolic litter, structural litter, whole litter (structural and metabolic), or labile soil C. The cumulative change in soil C or N varied in both sign and magnitude across simulations. For example, increasing kinetic rates of litter decomposition resulted in net releases of both C and N from soil pools, while decreasing CUE produced short-term increases in respiration but long-term accumulation of C in litter pools and shifts in soil C:N as microbial demand for C increased and biomass declined. Given that soil N cycling constrains the response of plant productivity to global change and that soils generate a large amount of uncertainty in current earth system models, microbial-explicit models are a critical opportunity to advance the modeled representation of soils. However, microbial-explicit models must be improved by experiments to isolate the physiological and stoichiometric

  20. The provision of ecosystem services in response to global change: Evidences and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafortezza, Raffaele; Chen, Jiquan

    2016-05-01

    As a consequence of the global increase in economic and societal prosperity, ecosystems and natural resources have been substantially exploited, degraded, or even destroyed in the last century. To prevent further deprivation of the quality of ecosystems, the ecosystem services concept has become a central issue in environmental studies. A growing number of environmental agencies and organizations worldwide are now embracing integrated approaches to plan and manage ecosystems, sharing a goal to maintain the long-term provision of ecosystem services for sustainability. A daunting challenge in this process is to move from general pronouncements about the tremendous benefits that ecosystems provide to society to defensible assessments of their services. In other words, we must move beyond the scientific evidences of the ecosystem services concept to its practical applications. In this work, we discuss the theoretical foundations and applications of ecosystem services with a focus on the assessment of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we offer examples of the main factors related to land use management that may affect the provision of ecosystem services and provide direction for future research on ecosystem services and related nature-based solutions. We also provide a briefing on the major topics covered in this Special Issue, which focuses on the provision of ecosystem services in the context of global change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Boreal mire Green House Gas exchange in response to global change perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Mats

    2017-04-01

    High latitude boreal peatlands contribute importantly to the land-atmosphere-hydrosphere exchange of carbon and GHG, i.e. carbon dioxide, methane and dissolved organic carbon. High latitude biomes are identified as most vulnerable to changing climate. High latitudes are also characterized by a strong seasonality in incoming solar radiation, weather conditions and thus also in biogeochemical processes. The strong seasonality in incoming solar radiation, not to change in response to a changing climate, constitute firm constraints on how changes in air temperature, evapotranspiration and precipitation will affect biogeochemical processes underlying the land atmosphere and land hydrosphere exchange of green house gases. In this presentation I combine data from long-term monitoring, long-term field manipulations and detailed chemical analysis to understand how changes in atmosphere and weather conditions influence the major carbon fluxes of a boreal mire Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance. The long-term monitoring data contains >12 years of continuous Eddy Covariance CO2 data, growing season chamber CH4 data and continuous measurements of discharge export of DOC, CO2 and CH4. Data from long-term field snow removal manipulations and growing season temperature increase manipulations are used to further understand the impact of climate on mire carbon and GHG fluxes. Finally we uses Nuclear Magnetic Spectroscopy (NMR) to reveal how century scale changes in atmospheric CO2 from 300 to 400 pm CO2 and temperature have influenced the net photosynthetic capacity of Sphagnum mosses, the single most important plant genus for boreal mire carbon sequestration.

  2. Individual to Community-Level Faunal Responses to Environmental Change from a Marine Fossil Record of Early Miocene Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belanger, Christina L.

    2012-01-01

    Modern climate change has a strong potential to shift earth systems and biological communities into novel states that have no present-day analog, leaving ecologists with no observational basis to predict the likely biotic effects. Fossil records contain long time-series of past environmental changes outside the range of modern observation, which are vital for predicting future ecological responses, and are capable of (a) providing detailed information on rates of ecological change, (b) illuminating the environmental drivers of those changes, and (c) recording the effects of environmental change on individual physiological rates. Outcrops of Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation (Oregon) provide one such time series. This record of benthic foraminiferal and molluscan community change from continental shelf depths spans a past interval environmental change (∼20.3-16.7 mya) during which the region warmed 2.1–4.5°C, surface productivity and benthic organic carbon flux increased, and benthic oxygenation decreased, perhaps driven by intensified upwelling as on the modern Oregon coast. The Newport Member record shows that (a) ecological responses to natural environmental change can be abrupt, (b) productivity can be the primary driver of faunal change during global warming, (c) molluscs had a threshold response to productivity change while foraminifera changed gradually, and (d) changes in bivalve body size and growth rates parallel changes in taxonomic composition at the community level, indicating that, either directly or indirectly through some other biological parameter, the physiological tolerances of species do influence community change. Ecological studies in modern and fossil records that consider multiple ecological levels, environmental parameters, and taxonomic groups can provide critical information for predicting future ecological change and evaluating species vulnerability. PMID:22558424

  3. Spatial and body-size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefort, Stelly; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Arsouze, Thomas; Gehlen, Marion; Maury, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    Temperature, oxygen, and food availability directly affect marine life. Climate models project a global warming of the ocean's surface (~+3 °C), a de-oxygenation of the ocean's interior (~-3%) and a decrease in total marine net primary production (~-8%) under the 'business as usual' climate change scenario (RCP8.5). We estimated the effects of these changes on biological communities using a coupled biogeochemical (PISCES)--ecosystems (APECOSM) model forced by the physical outputs of the last generation of the IPSL-CM Earth System Model. The APECOSM model is a size-structured bio-energetic model that simulates the 3D dynamical distributions of three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, mesopelagic, and migratory) under the effects of multiple environmental factors. The PISCES-APECOSM model ran from 1850 to 2100 under historical forcing followed by RCP8.5. Our RCP8.5 simulation highlights significant changes in the spatial distribution, biomass, and maximum body-size of the simulated pelagic communities. Biomass and maximum body-size increase at high latitude over the course of the century, reflecting the capacity of marine organisms to respond to new suitable environment. At low- and midlatitude, biomass and maximum body-size strongly decrease. In those regions, large organisms cannot maintain their high metabolic needs because of limited and declining food availability. This resource reduction enhances the competition and modifies the biomass distribution among and within the three communities: the proportion of small organisms increases in the three communities and the migrant community that initially comprised a higher proportion of small organisms is favored. The greater resilience of small body-size organisms resides in their capacity to fulfill their metabolic needs under reduced energy supply and is further favored by the release of predation pressure due to the decline of large organisms. These results suggest that small body-size organisms might be

  4. Global atmospheric changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piver, W T

    1991-12-01

    Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the processes that are responsible for the greenhouse effect, air pollution, acid deposition, and increased exposure to UV radiation.

  5. Studying global change through investigation of the plastic responses of xylem anatomy in tree rings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonti, Patrick; von Arx, Georg; García-González, Ignacio; Eilmann, Britta; Sass-Klaassen, Ute; Gärtner, Holger; Eckstein, Dieter

    2010-01-01

    Variability in xylem anatomy is of interest to plant scientists because of the role water transport plays in plant performance and survival. Insights into plant adjustments to changing environmental conditions have mainly been obtained through structural and functional comparative studies between taxa or within taxa on contrasting sites or along environmental gradients. Yet, a gap exists regarding the study of hydraulic adjustments in response to environmental changes over the lifetimes of plants. In trees, dated tree-ring series are often exploited to reconstruct dynamics in ecological conditions, and recent work in which wood-anatomical variables have been used in dendrochronology has produced promising results. Environmental signals identified in water-conducting cells carry novel information reflecting changes in regional conditions and are mostly related to short, sub-annual intervals. Although the idea of investigating environmental signals through wood anatomical time series goes back to the 1960s, it is only recently that low-cost computerized image-analysis systems have enabled increased scientific output in this field. We believe that the study of tree-ring anatomy is emerging as a promising approach in tree biology and climate change research, particularly if complemented by physiological and ecological studies. This contribution presents the rationale, the potential, and the methodological challenges of this innovative approach.

  6. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  7. Genomic Regulation of the Response of an Agroecosystem to Elements of Global Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeLucia, Evan, H.

    2011-06-03

    This document outlines some of the major accomplishments from this project: (1) New tools for analyzing and visualizing microarray data from soybean gene expression experiments; (2) Physiological, biochemical, and gene array evidence that acclimation of carbon metabolism to elevated CO{sub 2} is governed in significant part by changes in gene expression associated with respiratory metabolism; (3) Increased carbon assimilation in soybeans grown at elevated CO{sub 2} altered pools of carbohydrates and transcripts that control growth and expansion of young leaves; (4) Growth at elevated CO{sub 2} increases the abundance of transcripts controlling cell wall polysaccharide synthesis but not transcripts controlling lignin synthesis; (5) The total antioxidant capacity of soybeans varies among cultivars and in response to atmospheric change; (6) Accelerated leaf senescence at elevated O{sub 3} coincides with reduced abundance of transcripts controlling protein synthesis; (7) Growth under elevated CO{sub 2} increases the susceptibility of soybean to insect herbivores by increasing insect lifespan and fecundity through altered leaf chemistry and by defeating molecular induction of plant defenses; (8) Exposure to elevated CO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} alters flavonoid metabolism in soybean; (9) Exposure to elevated CO{sub 2} or O{sub 3} conferred resistance to soybean mosaic virus by cross inducing defense- and stress-related signaling pathways; and (10) Exposure to elevated CO{sub 2} accelerates decomposition by changing chemical and biotic properties of the soil.

  8. Regional pattern and interannual variations in global terrestrial carbon uptake in response to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Mingkui; Tao, B.; Li, Kerang; Prince, Stephen D.; Small, J.

    2005-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements indicate that the terrestrial carbon sink increased substantially from the 1980s to the 1990s, but which factors and regions were responsible for the increase are not well identified yet. Using process- and remote sensing-based ecosystem models, we show that changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 in the period 1981-2000 enhanced net ecosystem production (NEP) and caused major geographical changes in the global distribution of NEP. In the 1980s the Americas accounted for almost all of the global NEP, but in the 1990s NEP in Eurasia and Africa became higher than that of the Americas. The year-to-year variation in global NEP was up to 2.5 Pg C (1 Pg = 10 15 g), in which 1.4 Pg C was attributable to the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO). NEP clearly decreased in El Nino and increased in La Nina in South America and Africa, but the response in North America and Eurasia was mixed. The estimated NEP increases accounted for only 30% of the global terrestrial carbon sink but can explain almost all of the increase from the 1980s to the 1990s. Because a large part of the increase in NEP was driven by the long-term trend of climate and atmospheric CO 2 , the increase in the global terrestrial carbon sink from the 1980s to the 1990s was a continuation of the trend since the middle of the twentieth century, rather than merely a consequence of short-time climate variability

  9. Shallow marine response to global climate change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Salisbury Embayment, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Self-Trail, Jean; Robinson, Marci M.; Bralower, Timothy J.; Sessa, Jocelyn A.; Hajek, Elizabeth A.; Kump, Lee R.; Trampush, Sheila M.; Willard, Debra A.; Edwards, Lucy E.; Powars, David S.; Wandless, Gregory A.

    2017-01-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an interval of extreme warmth that caused disruption of marine and terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale. Here we examine the sediments, flora, and fauna from an expanded section at Mattawoman Creek-Billingsley Road (MCBR) in Maryland and explore the impact of warming at a nearshore shallow marine (30–100 m water depth) site in the Salisbury Embayment. Observations indicate that at the onset of the PETM, the site abruptly shifted from an open marine to prodelta setting with increased terrestrial and fresh water input. Changes in microfossil biota suggest stratification of the water column and low-oxygen bottom water conditions in the earliest Eocene. Formation of authigenic carbonate through microbial diagenesis produced an unusually large bulk carbon isotope shift, while the magnitude of the corresponding signal from benthic foraminifera is similar to that at other marine sites. This proves that the landward increase in the magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion measured in bulk sediment is not due to a near instantaneous release of 12C-enriched CO2. We conclude that the MCBR site records nearshore marine response to global climate change that can be used as an analog for modern coastal response to global warming.

  10. Shallow marine response to global climate change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Salisbury Embayment, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Self-Trail, Jean M.; Robinson, Marci M.; Bralower, Timothy J.; Sessa, Jocelyn A.; Hajek, Elizabeth A.; Kump, Lee R.; Trampush, Sheila M.; Willard, Debra A.; Edwards, Lucy E.; Powars, David S.; Wandless, Gregory A.

    2017-07-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an interval of extreme warmth that caused disruption of marine and terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale. Here we examine the sediments, flora, and fauna from an expanded section at Mattawoman Creek-Billingsley Road (MCBR) in Maryland and explore the impact of warming at a nearshore shallow marine (30-100 m water depth) site in the Salisbury Embayment. Observations indicate that at the onset of the PETM, the site abruptly shifted from an open marine to prodelta setting with increased terrestrial and fresh water input. Changes in microfossil biota suggest stratification of the water column and low-oxygen bottom water conditions in the earliest Eocene. Formation of authigenic carbonate through microbial diagenesis produced an unusually large bulk carbon isotope shift, while the magnitude of the corresponding signal from benthic foraminifera is similar to that at other marine sites. This proves that the landward increase in the magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion measured in bulk sediment is not due to a near instantaneous release of 12C-enriched CO2. We conclude that the MCBR site records nearshore marine response to global climate change that can be used as an analog for modern coastal response to global warming.

  11. The response of amino acid cycling to global change across multiple biomes: Feedbacks on soil nitrogen availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzostek, E. R.; Finzi, A. C.

    2010-12-01

    The cycling of organic nitrogen (N) in soil links soil organic matter decomposition to ecosystem productivity. Amino acids are a key pool of organic N in the soil, whose cycling is sensitive to alterations in microbial demand for carbon and N. Further, the amino acids released from the breakdown of protein by proteolytic enzymes are an important source of N that supports terrestrial productivity. The objective of this study was to measure changes in amino acid cycling in response to experimental alterations of precipitation and temperature in twelve global change experiments during the 2009 growing season. The study sites ranged from arctic tundra to xeric grasslands. The treatments experimentally increased temperature, increased or decreased precipitation, or some combination of both factors. The response of amino acid cycling to temperature and precipitation manipulations tended to be site specific, but the responses could be placed into a common framework. Changes in soil moisture drove a large response in amino acid cycling. Precipitation augmentation in xeric and mesic sites increased both amino acid pool sizes and production. However, treatments that decreased precipitation drove decreases in amino acid cycling in xeric sites, but led to increases in amino acid cycling in more mesic sites. Across sites, the response to soil warming was horizon specific. Amino acid cycling in organic rich horizons responded positively to warming, while negative responses were exhibited in lower mineral soil horizons. The variable response likely reflects a higher availability of protein substrate to sustain high rates of proteolytic enzyme activity in organic rich horizons. Overall, these results suggest that soil moisture and the availability of protein substrate may be important factors that mediate the response of amino acid cycling to predicted increases in soil temperatures.

  12. Molecular mechanisms responsive to dehydration may impact the invasiveness of perennial weeds under global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leafy spurge is an invasive perennial weed in the great plains of the US and Canada. The ability of this herbaceous weed to regenerate new shoot growth from an abundance of crown and root buds after severe abiotic stress is critical for survival. Due to its adaptable and aggressive nature, global cl...

  13. Changing global carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canadell, Pep

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) is the single largest human perturbation on the earth's radiative balance contributing to climate change. Its rate of change reflects the balance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and the dynamics of a number of terrestrial and ocean processes that remove or emit C02. It is the long term evolution of this balance that will determine to large extent the speed and magnitude of the human induced climate change and the mitigation requirements to stabilise atmospheric C02 concentrations at any given level. In this talk, we show new trends in global carbon sources and sinks, with particularly focus on major shifts occurring since 2000 when the growth rate of atmospheric C02 has reached its highest level on record. The acceleration in the C02 growth results from the combination of several changes in properties of the carbon cycle, including: acceleration of anthropogenic carbon emissions; increased carbon intensity of the global economy, and decreased efficiency of natural carbon sinks. We discuss in more detail some of the possible causes of the reduced efficiency of natural carbon sinks on land and oceans, such as the decreased net sink in the Southern Ocean and on terrestrial mid-latitudes due to world-wide occurrence of drought. All these changes reported here characterise a carbon cycle that is generating stronger than expected climate forcing, and sooner than expected

  14. Bryozoans as indicators of global change: predictable shifts in morphology and carbonate mineralogy in response to warming and ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swezey, D. S.; Bean, J. R.; Ninokawa, A. T.; Sanford, E.

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies have documented variation in skeletal structure and carbonate mineralogy across a broad range of marine invertebrate taxa. Intraspecific changes in growth, morphology, and carbonate composition may occur in response to local and global changes in temperature, carbonate saturation state, and nutrient availability. Recurring upwelling along the west coast of the United States creates an alongshore mosaic of Ocean Acidification (OA), which may induce plastic responses and/or select for adaptive skeletal construction that can withstand pCO2 and temperature changes. Calcifying bryozoans provide a unique study system for investigating carbonate precipitation under variable conditions. Using a newly constructed flow-through CO2 control apparatus, we tested whether three laboratory-reared populations of the bryozoans Membranipora serrilamella, M. tuberculata and Celleporella cornuta showed differences in growth, calcification, and skeletal composition in response to simulated future OA conditions. Under elevated pCO2 (1200 μatm), bryozoans showed no significant differences in growth rate (new zooids added) compared to clones reared under current atmospheric values. However, C. cornuta colonies raised under high CO2 were significantly lighter, with less carbonate per zooid compared to colonies grown in present-day conditions (400 μatm). Scanning electron microscopy revealed that elevated pCO2 led to dissolution of bryozoan skeletons, which did not occur at 400 μatm. Structural changes in M. tuberculata and C. cornuta colonies may be related to the dissolution of high magnesium calcite skeletal components. Analyses of bryozoan morphological responses along with environmental proxies (δ13C, δ18O, and Mg/Ca ratios) could yield high resolution records of temperature and pH, which could be used to help reconstruct environmental variation along the California coast.

  15. Global warming not so harmful for all plants - response of holomycotrophic orchid species for the future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolanowska, Marta; Kras, Marta; Lipińska, Monika; Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Szlachetko, Dariusz L; Naczk, Aleksandra M

    2017-10-05

    Current and expected changes in global climate are major threat for biological diversity affecting individuals, communities and ecosystems. However, there is no general trend in the plants response to the climate change. The aim of present study was to evaluate impact of the future climate changes on the distribution of holomycotrophic orchid species using ecological niche modeling approach. Three different scenarios of future climate changes were tested to obtain the most comprehensive insight in the possible habitat loss of 16 holomycotrophic orchids. The extinction of Cephalanthera austiniae was predicted in all analyses. The coverage of suitable niches of Pogoniopsis schenckii will decrease to 1-30% of its current extent. The reduction of at least 50% of climatic niche of Erythrorchis cassythoides and Limodorum abortivum will be observed. In turn, the coverage of suitable niches of Hexalectris spicata, Uleiorchis ulaei and Wullschlaegelia calcarata may be even 16-74 times larger than in the present time. The conducted niche modeling and analysis of the similarity of their climatic tolerance showed instead that the future modification of the coverage of their suitable niches will not be unified and the future climate changes may be not so harmful for holomycotrophic orchids as expected.

  16. Uncertainties in forecasting the response of polar bears to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, David C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Several sources of uncertainty affect how precisely the future status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) can be forecasted. Foremost are unknowns about the future levels of global greenhouse gas emissions, which could range from an unabated increase to an aggressively mitigated reduction. Uncertainties also arise because different climate models project different amounts and rates of future warming (and sea ice loss)—even for the same emission scenario. There are also uncertainties about how global warming could affect the Arctic Ocean’s food web, so even if climate models project the presence of sea ice in the future, the availability of polar bear prey is not guaranteed. Under a worst-case emission scenario in which rates of greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated to century’s end, the uncertainties about polar bear status center on a potential for extinction. If the species were to persist, it would likely be restricted to a high-latitude refugium in northern Canada and Greenland—assuming a food web also existed with enough accessible prey to fuel weight gains for surviving onshore during the most extreme years of summer ice melt. On the other hand, if emissions were to be aggressively mitigated at the levels proposed in the Paris Climate Agreement, healthy polar bear populations would probably continue to occupy all but the most southern areas of their contemporary summer range. While polar bears have survived previous warming phases—which indicate some resiliency to the loss of sea ice habitat—what is certain is that the present pace of warming is unprecedented and will increasingly expose polar bears to historically novel stressors.

  17. Functional traits drive plant community and ecosystem response to global change across arctic and alpine environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chisholm, Chelsea Lee

    hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Here I found that competition is generally stronger in warmer climates, and that functional traits do not consistently predict growth across climate space. I also demonstrated that the inclusion of functional trait information as stabilizing niche differences in competition...... delayed in ice-rich areas. Finally, colleagues and I used an observational approach to assess changes in nutrient dynamics across replicated treeline transects in temperate regions around the globe, where we found consistent temperature-mediated changes in both ground-layer plant and soil nutrients across...

  18. Global change and Canadians: A teacher's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    A report called Global Change and Canadians has been produced by the Royal Society of Canada to answer basic questions being asked about global change issues. A teacher's guide is presented to help teachers make effective use of the report in developing programs with students concerning global change. A basic set of teaching and learning activities related to the major topics in the report is provided, curricular connections between global change topics and school programs are suggested, and some additional resources on global change are listed. The guide is divided into six chapters, each corresponding to the chapters of the global change report. Each chapter contains a summary of the major concepts from the report, some of the learning outcomes that occur when those concepts are addressed, a series of suggested activities or ideas, and a guide for assessing students' abilities relative to the concepts of the chapter. The topics of the chapters cover the nature of global change, the importance of global change to Canada, the causes of global change, the consequences of global change (including climate change and the greenhouse effect), the effects of global change on society, and Canadian responses to global change. 64 refs., 3 figs

  19. Hierarchical responses of plant–soil interactions to climate change: consequences for the global carbon cycle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bardgett, R.D.; Manning, P.; Morrien, E.; De Vries, F.T.

    2013-01-01

    1.Interactions between plant and soil communities play a major role in determining the impact of climate change on ecosystem functioning and the carbon cycle, and the mechanisms involved operate over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. 2.We present a framework for understanding the

  20. Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johnson, N.C.; Angelard, C.; Sanders, I.R.; Kiers, E.T.

    2013-01-01

    Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore

  1. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the late ordovician mass extinction

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sheets, H. D.; Melchin, M. J.; Loxton, J.; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, K. L.; Hawkins, A. D.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 113, č. 30 (2016), s. 8380-8385 ISSN 0027-8424 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA301110908 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : abundance * climate change * extinction * macroevolution * selection Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 9.661, year: 2016

  2. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2002-01-01

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  3. Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buddemeier, R.W.; Lane, D.R.; Martinich, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo ("COral Mortality and Bleaching Output")] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running Combo under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1-1. 5??C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

  4. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Sha [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Yu, Bofu [Griffith Univ., Nathan Queensland (Australia); Schwalm, Christopher R. [Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Ciais, Philippe [Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Zhang, Yao [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Fisher, Joshua B. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Michalak, Anna M. [Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Wang, Weile [California State Uni., Monterey Bay, Seasid, CA (United States); Poulter, Benjamin [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Huntzinger, Deborah N. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Niu, Shuli [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jain, Atul [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States); Ricciuto, Daniel M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ito, Akihiko [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Huang, Yuefei [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Qinghai Univ., Xining (China); Wang, Guangqian [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)

    2017-10-18

    Here, water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  5. Response of the mesosphere-thermosphere-ionosphere system to global change - CAWSES-II contribution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Beig, G.; Marsh, R. D.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 1, 11 November (2014), 21/ 1-21/ 19 ISSN 2197-4284 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792; GA MŠk LD12070 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : mesosphere * thermosphere * ionosphere * long-term trends * climatic change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology http://www.progearthplanetsci.com/content/1/1/21

  6. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yao; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, Anna M.; Wang, Weile; Poulter, Benjamin; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Niu, Shuli; Mao, Jiafu; Jain, Atul; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Ito, Akihiko; Wei, Yaxing; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian

    2017-11-01

    Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  7. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.

    2015-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS......-NPP) and TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land...

  8. National response strategy for global climate change: People's Republic of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqi, T.A.; Streets, D.G.; Wu Zongxin; He JianKun (eds.)

    1994-09-01

    The document reports results of a project funded by the Asian Development Bank and implemented by the State Science and Technology Commission which aimed towards formulating a policy to meet commitments to implementing the provisions of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Revised estimates of current emissions of the principal greenhouse gases from human activity in China have been made during the project and are reported. Future emissions of carbon dioxide have been estimated. Measures to reduce future emissions of CO[sub 2] have been identified and the cost and emission reductions associated with those measures have been calculated. The vulnerability of the different areas of China to climate drainage is discussed. Factors underlying the energy demand and supply options in China (one of the world's largest contributors to emissions of greenhouse gases) are discussed. Computer models developed at the Institute of Nuclear Energy Technology and the Argonne National Laboratory were used in the simulations.

  9. Climate Compatible Development in the Mongolia Steppe: analysis of vulnerability and adaptation response to global changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojima, D. S.; Togtokh, C.; Galvin, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    INTRODUCTION: Climate change and variability, market and policy changes are shaping pastoral communities' decisions on what pathways their future livelihoods will take and how the steppe landscapes and river basins, are managed. Recent droughts and damaging winter storms (zuds) of the past two decades have exacerbated the situation and undermined the natural capital on which the pastoral livelihoods depend upon. River basins are critical natural resources well-being of social-ecological systems in Mongolia. River basins provide the ecosystem services which support pastoral communities and industrial and urban development. Green development strategies are strongly dependent on water resources. Consequently, integrated planning of river basin management is needed to maintain these critical ecosystem services to meet the multiple needs of livelihoods of communities in these basins and to support sustainable development activities within the basins. For this study our team worked in nine sums (i.e., county level administrative areas) in three river basins in two provinces (aimags) to collect household data from 144 households. We also collected census data from the aimags and national level to understand trends at the level of ecosystems and river basins. We have selected 3 sums in each river basis, representing forest steppe, steppe and desert steppe regions for comparison across river basins and ecological zones. FINDINGS: Integrated planning efforts would be enhanced through, one, use of a social-ecological framework and, two, the development of a cross-ministerial working group to address natural resource considerations. Across the three basins agriculture, pastoral, industrial, and urban needs vie for similar ecosystem services. The natural capital and ecosystem services of these basins need to be assessed to understand the vulnerability and capacity of the resources. The most frequently listed "best coping strategy" across all ecosystem types was for herders to

  10. Ocean cleaning stations under a changing climate: biological responses of tropical and temperate fish-cleaner shrimp to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Rui; Lopes, Ana Rita; Pimentel, Marta; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Trübenbach, Katja; Narciso, Luis; Dionísio, Gisela; Pegado, Maria Rita; Repolho, Tiago; Calado, Ricardo; Diniz, Mário

    2014-10-01

    Cleaning symbioses play an important role in the health of certain coastal marine communities. These interspecific associations often occur at specific sites (cleaning stations) where a cleaner organism (commonly a fish or shrimp) removes ectoparasites/damaged tissue from a 'client' (a larger cooperating fish). At present, the potential impact of climate change on the fitness of cleaner organisms remains unknown. This study investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of tropical (Lysmata amboinensis) and temperate (L. seticaudata) cleaner shrimp to global warming. Specifically, thermal limits (CTMax), metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, heat shock response (HSR), lipid peroxidation [malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration], lactate levels, antioxidant (GST, SOD and catalase) and digestive enzyme activities (trypsin and alkaline phosphatase) at current and warming (+3 °C) temperature conditions. In contrast to the temperate species, CTMax values decreased significantly from current (24-27 °C) to warming temperature conditions (30 °C) for the tropical shrimp, where metabolic thermal sensitivity was affected and the HSR was significantly reduced. MDA levels in tropical shrimp increased dramatically, indicating extreme cellular lipid peroxidation, which was not observed in the temperate shrimp. Lactate levels, GST and SOD activities were significantly enhanced within the muscle tissue of the tropical species. Digestive enzyme activities in the hepatopancreas of both species were significantly decreased by warmer temperatures. Our data suggest that the tropical cleaner shrimp will be more vulnerable to global warming than the temperate Lysmata seticaudata; the latter evolved in a relatively unstable environment with seasonal thermal variations that may have conferred greater adaptive plasticity. Thus, tropical cleaning symbioses may be challenged at a greater degree by warming-related anthropogenic forcing, with potential cascading effects on the health

  11. Global Governance, Educational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundy, Karen

    2007-01-01

    In the last half decade, a rising literature has focused on the idea that processes of economic, political and social globalization require analysis in terms of governance at the global level. It is argued in this article that emerging forms of global governance have produced significant challenges to conventional conceptions of international…

  12. Global climate change and California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knox, J.B.; Scheuring, A.F.

    1991-01-01

    In the fall of 1988 the University of California organized a new public-service initiative on global climate change in response to inquiries and requests from members of Congress and the Department of Energy (DOE). This new systemwide initiative involved all of the University of California campuses and the University's three national laboratories at Berkeley, Los Alamos, and Livermore. The goal of this Greenhouse Initiative was to focus the multidisciplinary resources of the UC campuses and the team-oriented research capabilities of the laboratories on the prospect of global warming and its associated effects on the planet and its nations. In consultation with the DOE, the organizers proposed a series of workshops to focus University of California research resources on the issue of global warming, to contribute to the congressionally mandated DOE studies on options for the US to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by the year 2000, and to begin building a long-term research base contributing to an improved understanding of global change in all of its complexity and diverse discipline implications. This volume contains papers from the first of these workshops. Individual papers are processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  13. Response of the East Asian climate system to water and heat changes of global frozen soil using NCAR CAM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Under the condition of land-atmosphere heat and water conservation, a set of sensitive numerical experiments are set up to investigate the response of the East Asian climate system to global frozen soil change. This is done by introducing the supercooled soil water process into the Community Land Model (CLM3.0), which has been coupled to the National Center of Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1). Results show that: 1) The ratio between soil ice and soil water in CLM3.0 is clearly changed by the supercooled soil water process. Ground surface temperature and soil temperature are also affected. 2) The Eurasian (including East Asian) climate system is sensitive to changes of heat and water in frozen soil regions. In January, the Aleutian low sea level pressure circulation is strengthened, Ural blocking high at 500 hPa weakened, and East Asian trough weakened. In July, sea level pressure over the Aleutian Islands region is significantly reduced; there are negative anomalies of 500 hPa geopotential height over the East Asian mainland, and positive anomalies over the East Asian ocean. 3) In January, the southerly component of the 850 hPa wind field over East Asia increases, indicating a weakened winter monsoon. In July, cyclonic anomalies appear on the East Asian mainland while there are anticyclonic anomalies over the ocean, reflective of a strengthened east coast summer monsoon. 4) Summer rainfall in East Asia changed significantly, including substantial precipitation increase on the southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, central Yangtze River Basin, and northeast China. Summer rainfall significantly decreased in south China and Hainan Island, but slightly decreased in central and north China. Further analysis showed considerable upper air motion along 30°N latitude, with substantial descent of air at its north and south sides. Warm and humid air from the Northeast Pacific converged with cold air from northern land areas, representing the main cause of

  14. Global atmospheric changes.

    OpenAIRE

    Piver, W T

    1991-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the proces...

  15. Microbiological and ecological responses to global environmental changes in polar regions (MERGE): An IPY core coordinating project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naganuma, Takeshi; Wilmotte, Annick

    2009-11-01

    An integrated program, “Microbiological and ecological responses to global environmental changes in polar regions” (MERGE), was proposed in the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 and endorsed by the IPY committee as a coordinating proposal. MERGE hosts original proposals to the IPY and facilitates their funding. MERGE selected three key questions to produce scientific achievements. Prokaryotic and eukaryotic organisms in terrestrial, lacustrine, and supraglacial habitats were targeted according to diversity and biogeography; food webs and ecosystem evolution; and linkages between biological, chemical, and physical processes in the supraglacial biome. MERGE hosted 13 original and seven additional proposals, with two full proposals. It respected the priorities and achievements of the individual proposals and aimed to unify their significant results. Ideas and projects followed a bottom-up rather than a top-down approach. We intend to inform the MERGE community of the initial results and encourage ongoing collaboration. Scientists from non-polar regions have also participated and are encouraged to remain involved in MERGE. MERGE is formed by scientists from Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Spain, UK, Uruguay, USA, and Vietnam, and associates from Chile, Denmark, Netherlands, and Norway.

  16. Global warming not so harmful for all plants-response of holomycotrophic orchid species for the future climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolanowska, Marta; Kras, M.; Lipińska, M.; Mystkowska, K.; Szlachetko, D. L.; Naczk, A. M.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2017), č. článku 12704. ISSN 2045-2322 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36098G Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : global warming * Orchids * climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 4.259, year: 2016

  17. Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

  18. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  19. Managing global responsibility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saur, K. [Five Winds International, Donzdorf (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    The electronics industry in particular is a global industry. Local and regional solutions require a globally applicable product design and use global value chains. Operating in increasingly integrated material and product loops offers a unique solution to not only providing markets with compatible solutions, but also offer a chance to significantly reduce the environmental footprint of the industry. Product lifespan extension in emerging economies, utilization of local market needs, utilize available and affordable labour forces and creating wealth and capacity in developing countries may serve as a way to make industry more sustainable and successful. Both the supply side and the product end of life management need to be considered in this global industry. Intelligent solution support the dematerialization and material throughput and help creating markets and build wealth. Critical success factors include knowledge management, capacity building, developing infrastructure. This paper presents a discussion on a solutions oriented approach towards product life cycle management and stewardship combined with sustainable production and consumption considerations, support the industries aspirations and the UNEP Life Cycle Initiative's mission in a perfect manner. The aim of this paper is to offer approaches and develop ideas how economic viable and sustainable solutions can be developed. (orig.)

  20. Global Climate Change as Environmental Megacrisis

    OpenAIRE

    Endter-Wada, Joanna; Ingram, Helen

    2012-01-01

    The authors analyze global climate change utilizing insights from the governance and crisis management literatures that seek to understand the prospects, nature, characteristics and the effects of cataclysmic events. They argue that global climate change is a mega-crisis hiding in plain sight yet there has been no proportionate mega-crisis response. People are still grappling with how to make sense of climate change, how to bridge multiple ways of knowing it, and how to negotiate collective c...

  1. Joint sciences academies statement: global response to climate change; Declaration commune des Academies des sciences sur la reponse globale au changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-06-01

    Taking into account that there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring, the Joint Science Academies, urge, by this statement, all nations in the line with the UNFCCC principles, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies. Some recommendations are also given. (A.L.B.)

  2. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2001-01-01

    In Austria the CO 2 emissions increased by 5.9 % from 1990 to 1999, the other greenhouse gases by 2.6 %. The Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Environment and Water Management, in cooperation with other ministries and the countries, has worked out an action plan for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, to meet the targets of the Kyoto protocol. This study analyzes the greenhouse gas emissions in Austria, in the European Union and globally. The measured emission values throughout Austria and in the other European countries are given in tables, the environmental impact for Austria and globally is discussed, statistical data and time series of the emission sources are given and legal regulations and measures for an effective environmental emission control in Austria, the European Union and worldwide are discussed. In particular the impact of fossil-fuel power plants on the greenhouse gas emissions is analysed. (a.n.)

  3. Space Observations for Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasool, S. I.

    1991-01-01

    There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

  4. A report from the second US/Japan workshop on global change research: Environmental response technologies (mitigation and adaptation). United States-Japan Science and Technology Agreement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edgerton, S. [comp.] [National Science Foundation, Washington, DC (United States). Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences; Mizuno, Tateki [comp.] [National Inst. for Resources and Environment, MITI (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    The Second US - Japan Workshop on Global Change: Environmental Response Technologies for Global Change was hosted by the Program on Resources at the East-West Center, in Honolulu, Hawaii on February 1--3, 1993, on behalf of the United States Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) of the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET). This workshop brought together over fifty leading scientists from the two countries to review existing technologies and to identify needed research on the development of new technologies for mitigation and adaptation of global change. The Workshop was organized around three areas of research: (1) capture, fixation/utilization, and disposal of CO{sub 2} (e.g. CO{sub 2}, separation and capture technologies, ocean and land disposal of CO{sub 2}; (2) energy production and conservation technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. combustion efficiency, non-carbon based energy technologies, energy conservation technologies); and (3) adaptation technologies and practices related to global climate change (e.g., adaptation responses of crops to climate change, adapting urban infrastructure for climate change). Priorities for joint research in each of these areas were discussed. Selected papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  5. Global change of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  6. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  7. A Conceptual Model for Projecting Coccolithophorid Growth, Calcification and Photosynthetic Carbon Fixation Rates in Response to Global Ocean Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natasha A. Gafar

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature, light and carbonate chemistry all influence the growth, calcification and photosynthetic rates of coccolithophores to a similar degree. There have been multiple attempts to project the responses of coccolithophores to changes in carbonate chemistry, but the interaction with light and temperature remains elusive. Here we devise a simple conceptual model to derive a fit equation for coccolithophorid growth, photosynthetic and calcification rates in response to simultaneous changes in carbonate chemistry, temperature and light conditions. The fit equation is able to account for up to 88% of the variability in measured metabolic rates. Equation projections indicate that temperature, light and carbonate chemistry all have different modulating effects on both optimal growth conditions and the sensitivity of responses to extreme environmental conditions. Calculations suggest that a single extreme environmental condition (CO2, temperature, light will reduce maximum rates regardless of how optimal the other environmental conditions may be. Thus, while the response of coccolithophores to ocean change depends on multiple variables, the one which is least optimal will have the most impact on overall rates. Finally, responses to ocean change are usually reported in terms of cellular rates. However, changes in cellular rates can be a poor predictor for assessing changes in production at the community level. We therefore introduce a new metric, the calcium carbonate production potential (CCPP, which combines the independent effects of changes in growth rate and cellular calcium carbonate content to assess how environmental changes will impact coccolith production. Direct comparison of CO2 impacts on cellular CaCO3 production rates and CCPP shows that while the former is still at 45% of its pre-industrial capacity at 1,000 μatm, the latter is reduced to 10%.

  8. Final technical report. Can microbial functional traits predict the response and resilience of decomposition to global change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, Steven D. [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

    2015-09-24

    The role of specific micro-organisms in the carbon cycle, and their responses to environmental change, are unknown in most ecosystems. This knowledge gap limits scientists’ ability to predict how important ecosystem processes, like soil carbon storage and loss, will change with climate and other environmental factors. The investigators addressed this knowledge gap by transplanting microbial communities from different environments into new environments and measuring the response of community composition and carbon cycling over time. Using state-of-the-art sequencing techniques, computational tools, and nanotechnology, the investigators showed that microbial communities on decomposing plant material shift dramatically with natural and experimentally-imposed drought. Microbial communities also shifted in response to added nitrogen, but the effects were smaller. These changes had implications for carbon cycling, with lower rates of carbon loss under drought conditions, and changes in the efficiency of decomposition with nitrogen addition. Even when transplanted into the same conditions, microbial communities from different environments remained distinct in composition and functioning for up to one year. Changes in functioning were related to differences in enzyme gene content across different microbial groups. Computational approaches developed for this project allowed the conclusions to be tested more broadly in other ecosystems, and new computer models will facilitate the prediction of microbial traits and functioning across environments. The data and models resulting from this project benefit the public by improving the ability to predict how microbial communities and carbon cycling functions respond to climate change, nutrient enrichment, and other large-scale environmental changes.

  9. Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

  10. Simulating vegetation response to climate change in the Blue Mountains with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John B. Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Warming temperatures are projected to greatly alter many forests in the Pacific Northwest. MC2 is a dynamic global vegetation model, a climate-aware, process-based, and gridded vegetation model. We calibrated and ran MC2 simulations for the Blue Mountains Ecoregion, Oregon, USA, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. We calibrated MC2 using the best available spatial datasets from land managers. We ran future simulations using climate projections from four global circulation models (GCM under representative concentration pathway 8.5. Under this scenario, forest productivity is projected to increase as the growing season lengthens, and fire occurrence is projected to increase steeply throughout the century, with burned area peaking early- to mid-century. Subalpine forests are projected to disappear, and the coniferous forests to contract by 32.8%. Large portions of the dry and mesic forests are projected to convert to woodlands, unless precipitation were to increase. Low levels of change are projected for the Umatilla National Forest consistently across the four GCM’s. For the Wallowa-Whitman and the Malheur National Forest, forest conversions are projected to vary more across the four GCM-based simulations, reflecting high levels of uncertainty arising from climate. For simulations based on three of the four GCMs, sharply increased fire activity results in decreases in forest carbon stocks by the mid-century, and the fire activity catalyzes widespread biome shift across the study area. We document the full cycle of a structured approach to calibrating and running MC2 for transparency and to serve as a template for applications of MC2. Keywords: Climate change, Regional change, Simulation, Calibration, Forests, Fire, Dynamic global vegetation model

  11. The global marine phosphorus cycle: Response to climate change and feedbacks on ocean biogeochemistry. Geologica Ultraiectina (329)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsandev, I.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis focuses on the marine phosphorus (P) cycle and its response to changing environmental conditions, particularly those associated with glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene and Ocean Anoxic Events in the Cretaceous. From a box model of the ocean phosphorus, organic carbon and

  12. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and

  13. A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

    2015-01-21

    There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Farmer responses to multiple stresses in the face of global change: Assessing five case studies to enhance adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas, K. A.; Feola, G.; Lerner, A. M.; Jain, M.; Montefrio, M.

    2013-12-01

    The global challenge of sustaining agricultural livelihoods and yields in the face of growing populations and increasing climate change is the topic of intense research. The role of on-the-ground decision-making by individual farmers actually producing food, fuel, and fiber is often studied in individual cases to determine its environmental, economic, and social effects. However, there are few efforts to link across studies in a way that provides opportunities to better understand empirical farmer behavior, design effective policies, and be able to aggregate from case studies to a broader scale. Here we synthesize existing literature to identify four general factors affecting farmer decision-making: local technical and socio-cultural contexts; actors and institutions involved in decision-making; multiple stressors at broader scales; and the temporal gradient of decision-making. We use these factors to compare five cases that illustrate agricultural decision-making and its impacts: cotton and castor farming in Gujarat, India; swidden cultivation of upland rice in the Philippines; potato cultivation in Andean Colombia; winegrowing in Northern California; and maize production in peri-urban central Mexico. These cases span a geographic and economic range of production systems, but we find that we are able to make valid comparisons and draw lessons common across all cases by using the four factors as an organizing principle. We also find that our understanding of why farmers make the decisions they do changes if we neglect to examine even one of the four general factors guiding decision-making. This suggests that these four factors are important to understanding farmer decision-making, and can be used to guide the design and interpretation of future studies, as well as be the subject of further research in and of themselves to promote an agricultural system that is resilient to climate and other global environmental changes.

  15. Dominance hierarchies, diversity and species richness of vascular plants in an alpine meadow: contrasting short and medium term responses to simulated global change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juha M. Alatalo

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We studied the impact of simulated global change on a high alpine meadow plant community. Specifically, we examined whether short-term (5 years responses are good predictors for medium-term (7 years changes in the system by applying a factorial warming and nutrient manipulation to 20 plots in Latnjajaure, subarctic Sweden. Seven years of experimental warming and nutrient enhancement caused dramatic shifts in dominance hierarchies in response to the nutrient and the combined warming and nutrient enhancement treatments. Dominance hierarchies in the meadow moved from a community being dominated by cushion plants, deciduous, and evergreen shrubs to a community being dominated by grasses, sedges, and forbs. Short-term responses were shown to be inconsistent in their ability to predict medium-term responses for most functional groups, however, grasses showed a consistent and very substantial increase in response to nutrient addition over the seven years. The non-linear responses over time point out the importance of longer-term studies with repeated measurements to be able to better predict future changes. Forecasted changes to temperature and nutrient availability have implications for trophic interactions, and may ultimately influence the access to and palatability of the forage for grazers. Depending on what anthropogenic change will be most pronounced in the future (increase in nutrient deposits, warming, or a combination of them both, different shifts in community dominance hierarchies may occur. Generally, this study supports the productivity–diversity relationship found across arctic habitats, with community diversity peaking in mid-productivity systems and degrading as nutrient availability increases further. This is likely due the increasing competition in plant–plant interactions and the shifting dominance structure with grasses taking over the experimental plots, suggesting that global change could have high costs to biodiversity in the

  16. Building resilience into practical conservation: identifying local management responses to global climate change in the southern Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, J. A.; Marshall, P. A.; Johnson, J. E.; Harman, S.

    2010-06-01

    Climate change is now considered the greatest long-term threat to coral reefs, with some future change inevitable despite mitigation efforts. Managers must therefore focus on supporting the natural resilience of reefs, requiring that resilient reefs and reef regions be identified. We develop a framework for assessing resilience and trial it by applying the framework to target management responses to climate change on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The framework generates a resilience score for a site based on the evaluation of 19 differentially weighted indicators known or thought to confer resilience to coral reefs. Scores are summed, and sites within a region are ranked in terms of (1) their resilience relative to the other sites being assessed, and (2) the extent to which managers can influence their resilience. The framework was applied to 31 sites in Keppel Bay of the southern Great Barrier Reef, which has a long history of disturbance and recovery. Resilience and ‘management influence potential’ were both found to vary widely in Keppel Bay, informing site selection for the staged implementation of resilience-based management strategies. The assessment framework represents a step towards making the concept of resilience operational to reef managers and conservationists. Also, it is customisable, easy to teach and implement and effective in building support among local communities and stakeholders for management responses to climate change.

  17. Ecological ethics in captivity: balancing values and responsibilities in zoo and aquarium research under rapid global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P

    2013-01-01

    Ethical obligations to animals in conservation research and management are manifold and often conflicting. Animal welfare concerns often clash with the ethical imperative to understand and conserve a population or ecosystem through research and management intervention. The accelerating pace and impact of global environmental change, especially climate change, complicates our understanding of these obligations. One example is the blurring of the distinction between ex situ (zoo- and aquarium-based) conservation and in situ (field-based) approaches as zoos and aquariums become more active in field conservation work and as researchers and managers consider more intensive interventions in wild populations and ecosystems to meet key conservation goals. These shifts, in turn, have consequences for our traditional understanding of the ethics of wildlife research and management, including our relative weighting of animal welfare and conservation commitments across rapidly evolving ex situ and in situ contexts. Although this changing landscape in many ways supports the increased use of captive wildlife in conservation-relevant research, it raises significant ethical concerns about human intervention in populations and ecosystems, including the proper role of zoos and aquariums as centers for animal research and conservation in the coming decades. Working through these concerns requires a pragmatic approach to ethical analysis, one that is able to make trade-offs among the many goods at stake (e.g., animal welfare, species viability, and ecological integrity) as we strive to protect species from further decline and extinction in this century.

  18. The sweet side of global change-dynamic responses of non-structural carbohydrates to drought, elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization in tree species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Weibin; Hartmann, Henrik; Adams, Henry D; Zhang, Hongxia; Jin, Changjie; Zhao, Chuanyan; Guan, Dexin; Wang, Anzhi; Yuan, Fenghui; Wu, Jiabing

    2018-06-11

    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) play a central role in plant functioning as energy carriers and building blocks for primary and secondary metabolism. Many studies have investigated how environmental and anthropogenic changes, like increasingly frequent and severe drought episodes, elevated CO2 and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, influence NSC concentrations in individual trees. However, this wealth of data has not been analyzed yet to identify general trends using a common statistical framework. A thorough understanding of tree responses to global change is required for making realistic predictions of vegetation dynamics. Here we compiled data from 57 experimental studies on 71 tree species and conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate general responses of stored soluble sugars, starch and total NSC (soluble sugars + starch) concentrations in different tree organs (foliage, above-ground wood and roots) to drought, elevated CO2 and N deposition. We found that drought significantly decreased total NSC in roots (-17.3%), but not in foliage and above-ground woody tissues (bole, branch, stem and/or twig). Elevated CO2 significantly increased total NSC in foliage (+26.2%) and roots (+12.8%), but not in above-ground wood. By contrast, total NSC significantly decreased in roots (-17.9%), increased in above-ground wood (+6.1%), but was unaffected in foliage from N fertilization. In addition, the response of NSC to three global change drivers was strongly affected by tree taxonomic type, leaf habit, tree age and treatment intensity. Our results pave the way for a better understanding of general tree function responses to drought, elevated CO2 and N fertilization. The existing data also reveal that more long-term studies on mature trees that allow testing interactions between these factors are urgently needed to provide a basis for forecasting tree responses to environmental change at the global scale.

  19. Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes

  20. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodard, C.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Stoss, F.W. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  1. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  2. Response of the global surface ozone distribution to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature changes: implications for long-range transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Kan; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George; Zhang, Jiachen; Tao, Wei; Cheng, Yanli; Tao, Shu

    2017-07-01

    The response of surface ozone (O3) concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST

  3. Response of the global surface ozone distribution to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature changes: implications for long-range transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The response of surface ozone (O3 concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM. Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage

  4. Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) is dedicated to understanding the problems of global climate change and their potential solutions. The Institute...

  5. Global change and genetic diversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kremer, Antoine

    2000-01-01

    Are there grounds for concern as to the impact of global change on the future of European forests? This question is approached from the genetic angle, considering the modifications produced by climate change on the diversity and adaptive potential of forest species. In the absence of experimental data, the answers are derived from a set of arguments based on knowledge of evolutionary mechanisms involved in genetic diversity, the post-glacial history of European forests and lessons drawn from recent introductions of foreign wood species. These arguments entail less pessimistic conclusions than those generally reached for consequences attributed to global change. Even if major changes in composition could occur, past events show that genetic erosion capable of challenging the adaptive potential of species is unlikely. (author)

  6. Solar influences on global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Board on Global Change, National Research Council

    ..., but significant uncertainties remain. This book addresses current monitoring and understanding of solar influences on both the climate system and the ozone layer and prioritizes the research effort that will be needed to provide a sound scientific basis for policymaking related to global change issues.

  7. Growth and physiological responses of canola (Brassica napus) to three components of global climate change: temperature, carbon dioxide and drought

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qaderi, M.M.; Kurepin, L.V.; Reid, D.M. [Univ. of Calgary, Dept. of Biological Sciences, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2006-12-15

    Elevated CO{sub 2} appears to be a significant factor in global warming, which will likely lead to drought conditions in many areas. Few studies have considered the interactive effects of higher CO{sub 2}, temperature and drought on plant growth and physiology. We grew canola (Brassica napus cv. 45H72) plants under lower (22/18 deg. C) and higher (28/24 deg. C) temperature regimes in controlled-environment chambers at ambient (370 {mu}mol mol-1) and elevated (740 {mu}mol mol-1) CO{sub 2} levels. One half of the plants were watered to field capacity and the other half at wilting point. In three separate experiments, we determined growth, various physiological parameters and content of abscisic acid (ABA), indole-3-acetic acid and ethylene. Drought-stressed plants grown under higher temperature at ambient CO{sub 2} had decreased stem height and diameter, leaf number and area, dry matter, leaf area ratio, shoot/root weight ratio, net CO{sub 2} assimilation and chlorophyll fluorescence. However, these plants had increased specific leaf weight, leaf weight ratio and chlorophyll concentration. Elevated CO{sub 2} generally had the opposite effect. and partially reversed the inhibitory effects of higher temperature and drought on leaf dry weight accumulation. This study showed that higher temperature and drought inhibit many processes but elevated CO{sub 2} partially mitigate some adverse effects. As expected, drought stress increased ABA but higher temperature inhibited the ability of plants to produce ABA in response to drought. (au)

  8. Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: Mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breshears, D.D.; Myers, O.B.; Meyer, Clifton W.; Barnes, F.J.; Zou, C.B.; Allen, Craig D.; McDowell, N.G.; Pockman, W. T.

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change is projected to produce warmer, longer, and more frequent droughts, referred to here as “global change-type droughts”, which have the potential to trigger widespread tree die-off. However, drought-induced tree mortality cannot be predicted with confidence, because long-term field observations of plant water stress prior to, and culminating in, mortality are rare, precluding the development and testing of mechanisms. Here, we document plant water stress in two widely distributed, co-occurring species, piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma), over more than a decade, leading up to regional-scale die-off of piñon pine trees in response to global change-related drought. Piñon leaf water potentials remained substantially below their zero carbon assimilation point for at least 10 months prior to dying, in contrast to those of juniper, which rarely dropped below their zero-assimilation point. These data suggest that piñon mortality was driven by protracted water stress, leading to carbon starvation and associated increases in susceptibility to other disturbances (eg bark beetles), a finding that should help to improve predictions of mortality during drought.

  9. Global climate change and California's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaux, H.J. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

  10. The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Goñi, María Fernanda; Desprat, Stéphanie; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Bassinot, Frank C.; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Anderson, R. Scott; Behling, Hermann; Bonnefille, Raymonde; Burjachs, Francesc; Carrión, José S.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Clark, James S.; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Mustaphi, Colin. J. Courtney; Debusk, Georg H.; Dupont, Lydie M.; Finch, Jemma M.; Fletcher, William J.; Giardini, Marco; González, Catalina; Gosling, William D.; Grigg, Laurie D.; Grimm, Eric C.; Hayashi, Ryoma; Helmens, Karin; Heusser, Linda E.; Hill, Trevor; Hope, Geoffrey; Huntley, Brian; Igarashi, Yaeko; Irino, Tomohisa; Jacobs, Bonnie; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Kawai, Sayuri; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kumon, Fujio; Lawson, Ian T.; Ledru, Marie-Pierre; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Liew, Ping Mei; Magri, Donatella; Marchant, Robert; Margari, Vasiliki; Mayle, Francis E.; Merna McKenzie, G.; Moss, Patrick; Müller, Stefanie; Müller, Ulrich C.; Naughton, Filipa; Newnham, Rewi M.; Oba, Tadamichi; Pérez-Obiol, Ramón; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Roucoux, Katy H.; Rucina, Stephen M.; Scott, Louis; Takahara, Hikaru; Tzedakis, Polichronis C.; Urrego, Dunia H.; van Geel, Bas; Valencia, B. Guido; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Vincens, Annie; Whitlock, Cathy L.; Willard, Debra A.; Yamamoto, Masanobu

    2017-09-01

    Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at PANGAEA.870867" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

  11. Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jutro, P.R.

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results

  12. Less approach, more avoidance: Response inhibition has motivational consequences for sexual stimuli that reflect changes in affective value not a lingering global brake on behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Rachel L; de Launay, Keelia Quinn; Fenske, Mark J

    2018-02-01

    Response inhibition negatively impacts subsequent hedonic evaluations of motivationally relevant stimuli and reduces the behavioral incentive to seek and obtain such items. Here we expand the investigation of the motivational consequences of inhibition by presenting sexually appealing and nonappealing images in a go/no-go task and a subsequent image-viewing task. Each initially obscured image in the viewing task could either be made more visible or less visible by repeatedly pressing different keys. Fewer key presses were made to obtain better views of preferred-sex images when such images had previously been inhibited as no-go items than when previously encountered as noninhibited go items. This finding replicates prior results and is consistent with the possibility that motor-response suppression has lingering effects that include global reductions in all behavioral expression. However, for nonpreferred images, prior inhibition resulted in more key presses to obscure their visibility than when such images had not been inhibited. This novel finding suggests that the motivational consequences of response inhibition are not due to a global brake on action but are instead linked to negative changes in stimulus value that induce corresponding increases in avoidance and decreases in approach.

  13. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  14. Is man responsible for global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Legendre, A.

    2009-01-01

    According to politicians, ecologists and mass media, it is now certain that with our CO 2 emissions, we are all responsible for a major global warming to come with dramatic consequences. But, is this affirmation indisputable? Are we all responsible for the rise of sea level and the summer thawing of the arctic ice shelf? Is this expected global warming without precedent? And is CO 2 , necessary for life, the cause of our misfortune? The answers commonly claimed are maybe more complex in reality and the climate question more subtle than it looks like. This book tries to decode the wheels of the climate machine and the share of human responsibility in climate change. (J.S.)

  15. Health effects of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghauri, B.; Salam, M.; Mirza I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

  16. The dairy cow and global climate changes

    OpenAIRE

    Flávio Baccari Jr

    2015-01-01

     High producing dairy cows are more sensitive to heat stress due mainly to their higher resting metabolic rate as compared to low producing and dry cows. Their responses to increasing levels of the temperature-humidity and the black globe-humidity indices are discussed as well as some aspects of heat tolerance as related to body temperature increase and milk production decrease. Some mitigation and adaptation practices are recommended to face the challenges of global climate changes.

  17. Responsibility and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Jamieson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    Ibegin by providing some background to conceptions of responsibility. I note the extent of disagreement in this area, the diverse and cross-cutting distinctions that are deployed, and the relative neglect of some important problems. These facts make it difficult to attribute responsibility for climate change, but so do some features of climate change itself which I go on to illuminate. Attributions of responsibility are often contested sites because such attributions are fundamentally pragmat...

  18. Symbiotic specificity, association patterns, and function determine community responses to global changes: defining critical research areas for coral-Symbiodinium symbioses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabina, Nicholas S; Putnam, Hollie M; Franklin, Erik C; Stat, Michael; Gates, Ruth D

    2013-11-01

    Climate change-driven stressors threaten the persistence of coral reefs worldwide. Symbiotic relationships between scleractinian corals and photosynthetic endosymbionts (genus Symbiodinium) are the foundation of reef ecosystems, and these associations are differentially impacted by stress. Here, we couple empirical data from the coral reefs of Moorea, French Polynesia, and a network theoretic modeling approach to evaluate how patterns in coral-Symbiodinium associations influence community stability under climate change. To introduce the effect of climate perturbations, we simulate local 'extinctions' that represent either the loss of coral species or the ability to engage in symbiotic interactions. Community stability is measured by determining the duration and number of species that persist through the simulated extinctions. Our results suggest that four factors greatly increase coral-Symbiodinium community stability in response to global changes: (i) the survival of generalist hosts and symbionts maximizes potential symbiotic unions; (ii) elevated symbiont diversity provides redundant or complementary symbiotic functions; (iii) compatible symbiotic assemblages create the potential for local recolonization; and (iv) the persistence of certain traits associate with symbiotic diversity and redundancy. Symbiodinium may facilitate coral persistence through novel environmental regimes, but this capacity is mediated by symbiotic specificity, association patterns, and the functional performance of the symbionts. Our model-based approach identifies general trends and testable hypotheses in coral-Symbiodinium community responses. Future studies should consider similar methods when community size and/or environmental complexity preclude experimental approaches. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Sánchez Goñi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D–O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U∕230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL, 40Ar∕39Ar-dated tephra layers has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

  20. Mechanistic insights on the responses of plant and ecosystem gas exchange to global environmental change: lessons from Biosphere 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel A; Rucks, Jessica S; Aubanell, Gerard

    2014-09-01

    Scaling up leaf processes to canopy/ecosystem level fluxes is critical for examining feedbacks between vegetation and climate. Collectively, studies from Biosphere 2 Laboratory have provided important insight of leaf-to-ecosystem investigations of multiple environmental parameters that were not before possible in enclosed or field studies. B2L has been a testing lab for the applicability of new technologies such as spectral approaches to detect spatial and temporal changes in photosynthesis within canopies, or for the development of cavity ring-down isotope applications for ecosystem evapotranspiration. Short and long term changes in atmospheric CO2, drought or temperature allowed for intensive investigation of the interactions between photosynthesis and leaf, soil and ecosystem respiration. Experiments conducted in the rainforest biome have provided some of the most comprehensive dataset to date on the effects of climate change variables on tropical ecosystems. Results from these studies have been later corroborated in natural rainforest ecosystems and have improved the predictive capabilities of models that now show increased resilience of tropics to climate change. Studies of temperature and CO2 effects on ecosystem respiration and its leaf and soil components have helped reconsider the use of simple first-order kinetics for characterizing respiration in models. The B2L also provided opportunities to quantify the rhizosphere priming effect, or establish the relationships between net primary productivity, atmospheric CO2 and isoprene emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling effects of geoengineering options in response to climate change and global warming: implications for coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M J C

    2009-12-01

    Climate change will have serious effects on the planet and on its ecosystems. Currently, mitigation efforts are proving ineffectual in reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coral reefs are the most sensitive ecosystems on the planet to climate change, and here we review modelling a number of geoengineering options, and their potential influence on coral reefs. There are two categories of geoengineering, shortwave solar radiation management and longwave carbon dioxide removal. The first set of techniques only reduce some, but not all, effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems. They also do not affect CO2 levels and therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, including ocean acidification, important for coral reefs. Solar radiation is important to coral growth and survival, and solar radiation management is not in general appropriate for this ecosystem. Longwave carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations, they have relatively low uncertainties and risks. They are worthy of further research and potential implementation, particularly carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation methods, alongside increased mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

  2. International Business and Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2008-11-15

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance.

  3. International Business and Global Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2008-11-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance

  4. Development of an interactive exploratory web-based modelling platform for informed decision-making and knowledgeable responses to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, I.; Harrison, P.; Cojocaru, G.

    2013-12-01

    Informed decision-making and knowledgeable responses to global climate change impacts on natural resources and ecosystem services requires access to information resources that are credible, accurate, easy to understand, and appropriate. Too often stakeholders are limited to restricted scientific outputs produced by inaccessible models, generated from a limited number of scenario simulations chosen arbitrarily by researchers. This paper describes the outcomes of the CLIMSAVE project (www.climsave.eu), which has attempted to democratise climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability modelling, through developing the public domain interactive exploratory web-based CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment (IA) Platform. The CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment (IA) Platform aims to enable a wide range of stakeholders to improve their understanding surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability of natural resources and ecosystem services under uncertain futures across Europe. The CLIMSAVE IA Platform contain linked simulation models (of the urban, water, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity and other sectors), IPCC AR4 climate scenarios and CLIMSAVE socio-economic scenarios, enabling users to select their inputs (climate and socioeconomic), rapidly run the models across Europe using their input settings and view their selected Impact (before, or after, adaptation) and Vulnerability (Figure 1) indicators. The CLIMSAVE IA Platform has been designed to promote both cognitive accessibility - the ease of understanding - and practical accessibility - the ease of application. Based upon partner and CLIMSAVE international experts' experience, examination of other participatory model interfaces and potential user requirements, we describe the design concepts and functionality that were identified, incorporated into the prototype CLIMSAVE IA Platform and further refined based on stakeholder feedback. The CLIMSAVE IA Platform is designed to facilitate a two-way iterative process

  5. Global sea level change and the response of solid earth; Kaisuijun hendo ni taisuru kotai chikyu no yakuwari

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murakami, Y. [Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba (Japan)

    1997-05-27

    A review was given on the theory that sea level change having occurred in the past 20,000 years has given a great impact on patterns of upheaval and subsidence of the islands of Japan. Nakada has summarized distribution of underwater remains in the western part of Kyushu and estimated values of sea surface altitude in 6000 years ago, and used this conceptional chart to propose a crust upheaval mechanism by using hydroisostasy. More specifically, this is a model that crust which has subsided due to rise in the sea level has created flows of mantle, causing upheaval of the crust in land areas. This viewpoint requires further accumulation of data and verification of the theory in areas other than the western part of Kyushu. It is important to consider the effect of sea level change also in studying processes of subsidence and sedimentation in sedimentary basins including Osaka Bay. The currently available theories use analysis solutions on stratified ground, but does not consider topographical profiles from land areas to sea areas. As this topographical effect is thought extremely important, it is necessary to develop a two-dimensional cross section analyzing method by using the finite element method. 6 refs., 3 figs.

  6. Late Quaternary Hydroclimate of Arid Northeastern Mexico: Response of Millennial-scale Global Climate Change and the Atlantic Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, P. D.; Shanahan, T. M.; Sánchez Zavala, J. L.; Lozano-SantaCruz, R.; Vera-Vera, G.

    2017-12-01

    Model projections suggest that drought-prone northeastern Mexico could experience an increase of more than 2 ºC in mean annual temperature and precipitation could decrease at least by 10-20% over the 21st century. The combination of drought and warmth would enhance the dryness of this water-stressed region in the coming decades. However, because of the lack of long continuous records from the region, little is known about the past controls on climate variability in northeast Mexico. In order to better understand the susceptibility of this climatically sensitive but data-poor region, we present a new multi-proxy record of past hydrological changes from paleo-lacustrine deposits in the Sandia Basin ( 24°N) over the last 32 cal ka BP. We reconstruct runoff from changes in the abundance of Al-bearing clastic minerals and local hydrological changes from the oxygen isotope composition of lacustrine carbonates, as well as gypsum/calcite abundances. During the cooler Heinrich Stadials (HS3, HS2 and HS1) and Younger Dryas, the basin received less runoff and the lake was more saline, though hydrological conditions varied significantly throughout these stadial events. The wettest interval in the record occurred coincident with the Bølling-Allerød (B/A) interstadial. Arid conditions returned during the Holocene, with low sedimentation rates, reduced proxy runoff indicators, and enhanced gypsum deposition suggesting this was the driest interval of the last 30 ka. Our observations are consistent with a growing number of records from across both northeastern Mexico and the southern Great Plains suggesting dry conditions associated with North Atlantic stadials and a sudden but transient shift to wetter conditions accompanying the strengthening of the overturning circulation during the B/A. We will evaluate the possible influence of Atlantic Warm Pool on hydroclimate of the region by comparing the different proxy records to the sea-surface temperature of Gulf of Mexico

  7. Educating for Responsible Global Citizenship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, Christine

    1987-01-01

    Discusses geographical illiteracy in the United States and the problems of inadequate international awareness and poor understanding of major global issues. Examines what citizens should know, why they should care, and what people should do about the lack of global knowledge. Presents a list of 57 references dealing with global issues. (GEA)

  8. Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Luo, Yiqi; Beier, Claus

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response...... of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed....

  9. Global climate change -- taking action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Commitment of the Canadian Mining Association (MAC), on behalf of its member companies, to play a global leadership role in eco-efficiency and environmental stewardship and participate fully in Canada's efforts to reduce emissions that contribute to climate change, are outlined. The principles underlying the MAC's commitment include: prudent action to reduce GHG emissions; the greatest possible efficiency in using energy; use of best practices and technologies; support for the development of balanced climate change policies; cooperation with all stakeholders in achieving the maximum feasible reduction in GHG emissions; support for research and analysis of the social, economic and environmental implications of GHG reduction strategies; and active support for a balanced and effective public outreach and education program. A brief review of how the mining sector has already made giant strides in cutting energy consumption and in reducing carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per unit of output during the past decade is supplemented by summaries of GHG reduction success stories from member companies such as Cominco, Teck Corporation, Falconbridge and Syncrude Canada Limited

  10. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-05

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans.

  11. Biocrusts in the context of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Kuske, Cheryl; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Darby, Brian; Sinsabaugh, Bob; Oliver, Mel; Sancho, Leo; Belnap, Jayne

    2016-01-01

    A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

  12. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  13. Lifestyles and Global Land-use Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heilig, G.K.

    1995-01-01

    One of the most influential publications on land-use change is a small booklet, published by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (HDP). It was written -- as its subtitle says -- as a "proposal for an IGBP-HDP Core Project" on "Relating Land Use and Global Land-Cover Change". The booklet can be seen as some kind of programmatic statement to guide international collaborative research on global land-use change. ...

  14. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  15. Global genome response of Escherichia coli O157∶H7 Sakai during dynamic changes in growth kinetics induced by an abrupt downshift in water activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chawalit Kocharunchitt

    Full Text Available The present study was undertaken to investigate growth kinetics and time-dependent change in global expression of Escherichia coli O157∶H7 Sakai upon an abrupt downshift in water activity (aw. Based on viable count data, shifting E. coli from aw 0.993 to aw 0.985 or less caused an apparent loss, then recovery, of culturability. Exponential growth then resumed at a rate characteristic for the aw imposed. To understand the responses of this pathogen to abrupt osmotic stress, we employed an integrated genomic and proteomic approach to characterize its cellular response during exposure to a rapid downshift but still within the growth range from aw 0.993 to aw 0.967. Of particular interest, genes and proteins with cell envelope-related functions were induced during the initial loss and subsequent recovery of culturability. This implies that cells undergo remodeling of their envelope composition, enabling them to adapt to osmotic stress. Growth at low aw, however, involved up-regulating additional genes and proteins, which are involved in the biosynthesis of specific amino acids, and carbohydrate catabolism and energy generation. This suggests their important role in facilitating growth under such stress. Finally, we highlighted the ability of E. coli to activate multiple stress responses by transiently inducing the RpoE and RpoH regulons to control protein misfolding, while simultaneously activating the master stress regulator RpoS to mediate long-term adaptation to hyperosmolality. This investigation extends our understanding of the potential mechanisms used by pathogenic E. coli to adapt, survive and grow under osmotic stress, which could potentially be exploited to aid the selection and/or development of novel strategies to inactivate this pathogen.

  16. Global change research: Science and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change

  17. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  18. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available ...

  19. Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Heiko; Fanesi, Andrea; Wilhelm, Christian

    2016-09-20

    Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  20. Myths and realities of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruce, J.P.

    1991-01-01

    Greenhouse gases in the environment are increasing, resulting in global warming. This paper discusses three misconceptions about global warming. The three topics are the level of consensus among world scientists about global warming, how 'costly' remedies for global warming will be, and will growth in developing countries offset any changes made in developed countries. Possibilities for Canadian leadership on this critical issue are discussed. 1 fig.

  1. Monitoring global change: a selection of examples

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR, Natural Resources and Environment

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The reality of global change (including climate change) has gripped the imaginations of movie moguls, graced the agendas of international organisations such as the United Nations, and now also receives prominent attention from the international...

  2. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yackle, Terri A

    2007-01-01

    .... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

  3. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Yi [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2014-11-24

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include

  4. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  5. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, Fred

    2009-01-01

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  6. Building a Global Responsive Organization:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Xinbo; Cao, Yi; Li, Suxiu

    2017-01-01

    This chapter outlines the philosophic underpinnings of the self-management paradigm developed over the past three decades by China’s Haier Group, a global leader in white goods. The successful transformation of Haier from a small resource-poor firm to a dominant global giant is often attributed...... to the self-management culture established in the company by its legendary leader Zhang Ruimin. This management paradigm is a function of the humbleness displayed by Mr. Zhang Ruimin and rooted in his strong belief in the traditional Chinese philosophy of I-Ching and Daoism. We show how the hexagram of Qian...... (“qian”: humbleness, modesty) from I-Ching is linked to Mr. Zhang’s humble approach and analyze how the six parts of the hexagram of Qian are related to the six development stages of the Haier Group. These insights are used to give some thoughts to the leadership challenge associated with the creation...

  7. Global warming: Economic policy responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornbusch, R.; Poterba, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    This volume contains the proceedings of a conference that brought together economic experts from Europe, the US, Latin America, and Japan to evaluate key issues in the policy debate in global warming. The following issues are at the center of debates on alternative policies to address global warming: scientific evidence on the magnitude of global warming and the extent to which it is due to human activities; availability of economic tools to control the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and how vigorously should they be applied; and political economy considerations which influence the design of an international program for controlling greenhouse gases. Many perspectives are offered on the approaches to remedying environmental problems that are currently being pursued in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Deforestation in the Amazon is discussed, as well as ways to slow it. Public finance assessments are presented of both the domestic and international policy issues raised by plans to levy a tax on the carbon emissions from various fossil fuels. Nine chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  8. Analyses of Student Learning in Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takle, E. S.; Moser, H.; Sorensen, E. K.

    2004-12-01

    The Global Change course at Iowa State University is a senior undergraduate and graduate level course that has been delivered over the internet with online dialog and learning activities since 1995. Students may enroll in the course as a distance education course, but in doing so they engage in dialog with students in the conventional on-campus face-to-face course. Online delivery and student participation offer opportunities for promoting use of critical thinking skills and collaborative learning not available in face-to-face environments. Students are required to research, post, and defend with authoritative information their positions on a variety of global change issues and specifically identify how they have demonstrated use of critical thinking skills in their online postings. Threaded dialog is used for structuring interactions toward promoting collaborative learning. We analyze collaborative learning by use of a rubric based on the theory of language games. By random selection of 1,350 online dialog comments posted over the last 10 years we evaluated student response to requirements for demonstrating critical thinking skills and collaboration in learning. We found that, by itself, the requirement of demonstrating critical thinking skills in online dialog was insufficient in promoting collaborative learned as measured by the standards of language game theory. But we also found that if an online comment clearly defines a situation and makes a clear expectation of a response, the likelihood is high that a game will be created. And if a game is established, there is a high probability that it will be closed, thereby giving evidence that collaborative learning had occurred. We conclude that a key component in collaborative online learning lies in establishing a lead-off comment that provides sufficient background information to clearly define an engaging situation. It also must include a clear expectation that a response is expected that will provide dialog

  9. Ecological responses to recent climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walther, Gian-Reto [Hannover Univ., Inst. of Geobotany, Hannover (Germany); Post, Eric [Pennsylvania State Univ., Dept. of Biology, University Park, PA (United States); Convey, Peter [British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Menzel, Annette [Technical Univ. Munich, Dept. of Ecology, Freising (Germany); Parmesan, Camille [Texas Univ., Patterson Labs., Integrative Biology Dept., Austin, TX (United States); Beebee, Trevor J.C. [Sussex Univ., School of Biological Sciences, Brighton (United Kingdom); Fromentin, Jean-Marc [IFREMER, Centre Halieutique Mediterraneen et Tropical, Sete, 34 (France); Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove [Queensland Univ., Centre for Marine Studies, St Lucia, QLD (Australia); Bairlein, Franz [Institute for Avian Research ' Vogelwarte Helgoland' , Wilhelmshaven (Germany)

    2002-03-28

    There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organisational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible. (Author)

  10. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  11. A review of global environmental mercury processes in response to human and natural perturbations: Changes of emissions, climate, and land use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrist, Daniel; Kirk, Jane L; Zhang, Lei; Sunderland, Elsie M; Jiskra, Martin; Selin, Noelle E

    2018-03-01

    most terrestrial environments now are considered net sinks of atmospheric Hg due to substantial Hg uptake by plants. Litterfall deposition by plants is now estimated at 1020-1230 Mg/year globally. Stable isotope analysis and direct flux measurements provide evidence that in many ecosystems Hg 0 deposition via plant inputs dominates, accounting for 57-94% of Hg in soils. Of global aquatic Hg releases, around 50% are estimated to occur in China and India, where Hg drains into the West Pacific and North Indian Oceans. A first inventory of global freshwater Hg suggests that inland freshwater Hg releases may be dominated by artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM; approximately 880 Mg/year), industrial and wastewater releases (220 Mg/year), and terrestrial mobilization (170-300 Mg/year). For pelagic ocean regions, the dominant source of Hg is atmospheric deposition; an exception is the Arctic Ocean, where riverine and coastal erosion is likely the dominant source. Ocean water Hg concentrations in the North Atlantic appear to have declined during the last several decades but have increased since the mid-1980s in the Pacific due to enhanced atmospheric deposition from the Asian continent. Finally, we provide examples of ongoing and anticipated changes in Hg cycling due to emission, climate, and land use changes. It is anticipated that future emissions changes will be strongly dependent on ASGM, as well as energy use scenarios and technology requirements implemented under the Minamata Convention. We predict that land use and climate change impacts on Hg cycling will be large and inherently linked to changes in ecosystem function and global atmospheric and ocean circulations. Our ability to predict multiple and simultaneous changes in future Hg global cycling and human exposure is rapidly developing but requires further enhancement.

  12. Global Megacities Differing Adaptation Responses to Climate Change: an Analysis of Annual Spend of Ten Major cities on the adaptation economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslin, M. A.; Georgeson, L.

    2015-12-01

    Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities, to improve the resilience of their infrastructure, economy and environment to climate change. Policymakers need to understand what is already being spent on adaptation so that they can make more effective and comprehensive adaptation plans. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined 'Adaptation Economy' we analysis the current efforts of 10 global megacities in adapting to climate change. These cities were chosen based on their size, geographical location and their developmental status. The cities are London, Paris, New York, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Beijing, Mumbai, Jakarta, Lagos and Addis Ababa. It is important to study a range of cities in different regions of the world, with different climates and at different states of socio-economic development. While in economic terms, disaster losses from weather, climate and geophysical events are greater in developed countries, fatalities and economic losses as a proportion of GDP are higher in developing countries. In all cities examined the Adaptation Economy is still a small part of the overall economy accounting for a maximum of 0.3% of the Cities total GDP (GDPc). The differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed and rapidly emerging countries, compared to those in developing countries with a spend ranging from £16 million to £1,500 million. Comparing key sub sectors, we demonstrate that there are distinctive adaptation profiles with developing cities having a higher relative spend on health, while developed cities have a higher spend on disaster preparedness, ICT and professional services. Comparing spend per capita and as a percentage of GDPc demonstrates even more clearly disparities between the cities in the study; developing country cities spend half as much as a proportion of GPCc in some cases, and

  13. Global monopoles can change Universe's topology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marunović, Anja; Prokopec, Tomislav

    2016-01-01

    If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed). Global monopoles cannot alter the topology of the space-time manifold.

  14. Should the north make unilateral technology transfers to the south? North-South cooperation and conflicts in responses to global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Zili

    1999-01-01

    Whether developed countries should make unilateral technology transfers to developing countries in order to address global environment problems is debatable. This paper discusses the issue in a framework that recognizing nations' joint production of environmental externalities. Unlike the existing literature on unilateral transfers, this paper presents a North-South environmental-economic optimal growth model that allows transfers to mitigate externalities only. The paper derives criteria that would make such transfers feasible. By solving the transfer problem in a modified RICE model [Nordhaus, W.D., Yang, Z., 1996. A regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies, Am. Econ. Rev., 86 (4) 741-65], this paper also provides information on the timing and the amount of unilateral transfers from North to South to address potential global warming problem, one major global environmental externality. A policy implication from his study is that moderate employment of unilateral transfers would benefit North along with the world as a whole

  15. Solar influences on global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Board on Global Change, National Research Council

    .... Important advances over the past decade in our knowledge of the Sun and of the terrestrial responses to solar variability provides the basis for answering this question with unprecedented surety...

  16. Characterization of Changes in Global Genes Expression in the Distal Colon of Loperamide-Induced Constipation SD Rats in Response to the Laxative Effects of Liriope platyphylla.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Eun Kim

    Full Text Available To characterize the changes in global gene expression in the distal colon of constipated SD rats in response to the laxative effects of aqueous extracts of Liriope platyphylla (AEtLP, including isoflavone, saponin, oligosaccharide, succinic acid and hydroxyproline, the total RNA extracted from the distal colon of AEtLP-treated constipation rats was hybridized to oligonucleotide microarrays. The AEtLP treated rats showed an increase in the number of stools, mucosa thickness, flat luminal surface thickness, mucin secretion, and crypt number. Overall, compared to the controls, 581 genes were up-regulated and 216 genes were down-regulated by the constipation induced by loperamide in the constipated rats. After the AEtLP treatment, 67 genes were up-regulated and 421 genes were down-regulated. Among the transcripts up-regulated by constipation, 89 were significantly down-regulated and 22 were recovered to the normal levels by the AEtLP treatment. The major genes in the down-regulated categories included Slc9a5, klk10, Fgf15, and Alpi, whereas the major genes in the recovered categories were Cyp2b2, Ace, G6pc, and Setbp1. On the other hand, after the AEtLP treatment, ten of these genes down-regulated by constipation were up-regulated significantly and five were recovered to the normal levels. The major genes in the up-regulated categories included Serpina3n, Lcn2 and Slc5a8, whereas the major genes in the recovered categories were Tmem45a, Rerg and Rgc32. These results indicate that several gene functional groups and individual genes as constipation biomarkers respond to an AEtLP treatment in constipated model rats.

  17. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly

    2011-01-01

    , it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...... is subject to change and the nature of competition in agriculture-based business, focusing on wine....

  18. The US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) requires massive quantities of highly diverse data and information to improve our understanding of global change processes. The Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) comprises Federal agencies that need to provide reliable data and information for this purpose from existing programs and archives and from new activities designed to improve upon the data and information. This US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan commits the participating Federal agencies to work with each other, with academia, and with the international community to make it as easy as possible for researchers and others to access and use global change data and information. Toward this end, the agencies are organizing a Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS), which takes advantage of the mission resources and responsibilities of each agency. Sources for global change data and information are national and international agency programs, including those focused on the USGCRP, such as NASA's Earth Observing System [EOS] and other agency global change initiatives and those contributing to the USGCRP from other agency programs not focused on global change. Data and information include raw data from observation systems, value-added data from data assembly activities, and derived data and information from models and other investigations. Additional data and information are identified from appropriate sources including academia and the international community

  19. Global Challenges and Local Responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wad, Peter

    2005-01-01

    the Korean and Malaysian unions were affected by the financial crisis from different structural and strategic positions, and were exposed to different national policies and corporate strategies of crisis management, the Korean unions and Malaysian unions generally followed, respectively, a more radical...... and militant and a more pragmatic and moderate strategy. In the global-local perspective we face two paradoxes. The first paradox is that in spite of the difference in union ideology, the outcome in terms of industrial relations (IR) institutions was rather similar in the sense that the auto industry contained......, which could impede their autonomy. Due to the strength of unions of the market leading firms a breakthrough did happen neither in Korea nor in Malaysia, although the Koreans were a step ahead of the Malaysians having established a federation of metalworkers unions, including the important autoworkers...

  20. Validity of the patient-reported Clinical Global Impression of Change as a measure of treatment response in men with premature ejaculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althof, Stanley E; Brock, Gerald B; Rosen, Raymond C; Rowland, David L; Aquilina, Joseph W; Rothman, Margaret; Tesfaye, Fisseha; Bull, Scott

    2010-06-01

    The Clinical Global Impression of Change (CGIC) measures have high utility in clinical practice. However, it is unknown whether the CGIC is valued for assessing premature ejaculation (PE) symptoms and/or the relationship between CGIC and other validated PE patient-reported measures. The study aims to assess the validity of the patient-reported CGIC measure in men with PE and to examine the relationship between CGIC ratings and assessments of control, satisfaction, personal distress, and interpersonal difficulty. Data from a randomized, double-blind, 24-week phase 3 trial in 1,162 men with PE who received dapoxetine (30 mg or 60 mg) or placebo on demand provided the basis for the analysis. Patients were ≥18 years, in a stable monogamous relationship for ≥6 months, met the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Fourth Edition-Text Revision criteria for PE for ≥6 months, and had an intravaginal ejaculatory latency time (IELT) ≤2 minutes in ≥75% of intercourse episodes. The CGIC asked patients to rate improvement or worsening of their PE compared with the start of the study using a 7-point response scale; other patient-reported measures were control over ejaculation, satisfaction with sexual intercourse, interpersonal difficulty, and personal distress related to ejaculation. Stopwatch-measured IELT was recorded. Associations between CGIC and change in other measures at study end point were assessed. The magnitude of IELT increased for each category of improvement on the CGIC: 1.63, 4.03, and 7.15 minutes for slightly better, better, and much better, respectively. Higher CGIC ratings were correlated with greater improvement in control (r = 0.73), satisfaction (r = 0.62), greater reduction in distress (r = -0.52), and interpersonal difficulty (r = -0.39). Total variance accounted for was 57.4%: control (48.7%), satisfaction (4.5%), IELT (2.8%), and distress (1.15%). The analyses support the validity of the CGIC measure in men with PE. The CGIC

  1. Natural resources management in an era of global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sommers, W.T. [USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1993-12-31

    The international science community has issued a series of predictions of global atmospheric change that, if they verify, will have heretofore unexperienced impact on our forests. Convincing the public and their natural resource managers to respond to these effects must be high on the agenda of the science community. Mitigative and adapative responses we examine and propose, however, should stem from an understanding of the evolving role of the natural resource manager and how that role might be affected by global change.

  2. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Riedy

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

  3. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  4. Global climate change has already begun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    Global warning and climate change is now evident around the planet. Six of the eight warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s, while 1990 was the hottest year on record. The global imbalances seem set to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and restoration of the earth's forests is begun

  5. What have we learned from global change manipulative experiments in China? A meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zheng Fu; Shuli Niu; Jeffrey S. Dukes

    2015-01-01

    Although China has the largest population in the world, a faster rate of warming than the global average, and an active global change research program, results from many of the global change experiments in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems have not been included in global syntheses. Here, we specifically analyze the observed responses of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in global change manipulative experiments in China, and compare these responses to those from other regions of the world. Mo...

  6. Global change and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matesanz, Silvia; Gianoli, Ernesto; Valladares, Fernando

    2010-09-01

    Global change drivers create new environmental scenarios and selective pressures, affecting plant species in various interacting ways. Plants respond with changes in phenology, physiology, and reproduction, with consequences for biotic interactions and community composition. We review information on phenotypic plasticity, a primary means by which plants cope with global change scenarios, recommending promising approaches for investigating the evolution of plasticity and describing constraints to its evolution. We discuss the important but largely ignored role of phenotypic plasticity in range shifts and review the extensive literature on invasive species as models of evolutionary change in novel environments. Plasticity can play a role both in the short-term response of plant populations to global change as well as in their long-term fate through the maintenance of genetic variation. In new environmental conditions, plasticity of certain functional traits may be beneficial (i.e., the plastic response is accompanied by a fitness advantage) and thus selected for. Plasticity can also be relevant in the establishment and persistence of plants in novel environments that are crucial for populations at the colonizing edge in range shifts induced by climate change. Experimental studies show taxonomically widespread plastic responses to global change drivers in many functional traits, though there is a lack of empirical support for many theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Future studies should assess the adaptive value and evolutionary potential of plasticity under complex, realistic global change scenarios. Promising tools include resurrection protocols and artificial selection experiments. © 2010 New York Academy of Sciences.

  7. Global Transsaccadic Change Blindness During Scene Perception

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Henderson, John

    2003-01-01

    .... The results from two experiments demonstrated a global transsaccadic change-blindness effect, suggesting that point-by-point visual representations are not functional across saccades during complex scene perception. Ahstract.

  8. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  9. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  10. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  11. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  12. Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2008-12-01

    Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

  13. Acidic deposition and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikolaidis, N.P.; Ecsedy, C.; Olem, H.; Nikolaidis, V.S.

    1990-01-01

    A literature is presented which examines the research published on understanding ecosystem acidification and the effects of acidic deposition on freshwaters. Topics of discussion include the following: acidic deposition; regional assessments; atmospheric deposition and transport; aquatic effects; mathematical modeling; liming acidic waters; global climate change; atmospheric changes; climate feedbacks; and aquatic effects

  14. Climate change and agricultural production | Offiong | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From a policy viewpoint, however, it is also difficult to understand the level to which agriculturally related activities may contribute to global-scale environmental change and the extent to which policies to prevent, mitigate, or adapt to environmental change may affect agriculture and hunger. These issues are likely to become ...

  15. U.S. Global Change Research Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Announcing... Read more The Deepening Story of How Climate Change Threatens Human Health Read more Celebrating the 25th Anniversary of the U.S. Global Change Research... Read more Nomination Period Open for the Sustained National ... more Connecting America’s Communities with Actionable Climate ...

  16. Information technology and global change science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baxter, F.P.

    1990-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to identify and briefly describe major existing and near term information technologies that cold have a positive impact on the topics being discussed at this conference by helping to manage the data of global change science and helping global change scientists conduct their research. Desktop computer systems have changed dramatically during the past seven years. Faster data processing can be expected in the future through full development of traditional serial computer architectures. Some other proven information technologies may be currently underutilized by global change scientists. Relational database management systems and good organization of data through the use of thoughtful database design would enable the scientific community to better share and maintain quality research data. Custodians of the data should use rigorous data administration to ensure integrity and long term value of the data resource. Still other emerging information technologies that involve the use of artificial intelligence, parallel computer architectures, and new sensors for data collection will be in relatively common use in the near term and should become part of the global science community's technical toolkit. Consideration should also be given to the establishment of Information Analysis Centers to facilitate effective organization and management of interdisciplinary data and the prototype testing and use of advanced information technology to facilitate rapid and cost-effective integration of these tools into global change science. 8 refs.

  17. Climate change and global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vate, J.F. van de

    1996-01-01

    Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  18. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  19. International earth science information network for global change decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Autrey-Hunley, C.; Kuhn, W.R.; Kasischke, E.; Trichel, M.T.; Coppola, R.

    1991-01-01

    Effective environmental decision making depends upon the ability to predict physical changes in the environment, societal responses to these changes, and how both the physical changes and societal responses will be affected by changes in government regulations, public perceptions and the environment. Technological advances in remote sensing have provided a wealth of earth science data necessary to study global change problems; the Earth Observatory System will provide an unprecedented data source in the late 1990's. The Consortium for an International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) will combine earth science data (both satellite and ground-based) with data on the social sciences (e.g., economics, demographics, public health) to support informed policy decisions and to transfer knowledge on global change and its causes to the public.

  20. Clean coal technologies and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, R.S.

    1993-01-01

    The role for Clean Coal Technologies is discussed in the context of the global climate change debate. Global climate change is, of course as the name implies, a global issue. This clearly distinguishes this issue from acid rain or ozone non-attainment, which are regional in nature. Therefore, the issue requires a global perspective, one that looks at the issue not just from a US policy standpoint but from an international policy view. This includes the positions of other individual nations, trading blocks, common interest groups, and the evolving United Nations bureaucracy. It is assumed that as the global economy continues to grow, energy demand will also grow. With growth in economic activity and energy use, will come growth in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, including growth in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Much of this growth will occur in developing economies which intend to fuel their growth with coal-fired power, especially China and India. Two basic premises which set out the boundaries of this topic are presented. First, there is the premise that global climate change is occurring, or is about to occur, and that governments must do something to mitigate the causes of climate change. Although this premise is highly rebuttable, and not based on scientific certainty, political science has driven it to the forefront of the debate. Second is the premise that advanced combustion CCTs, with their higher efficiencies, will result in lower CO 2 emissions, and hence lessen any contribution of greater coal use to potential global climate change. This promise is demonstrably true. This discussion focuses on recent and emerging public sector policy actions, which may in large part establish a new framework in which the private sector will find new challenges and new opportunities

  1. Forced Migration and Global Responsibility for Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozorgmehr, Kayvan; Razum, Oliver

    2017-01-01

    Forced migration has become a world-wide phenomenon in the past century, affecting increasing numbers of countries and people. It entails important challenges from a global health perspective. Leppold et al have critically discussed the Japanese interpretation of global responsibility for health in the context of forced migration. This commentary complements their analysis by outlining three priority areas of global health responsibility for European Union (EU) countries. We highlight important stages of the migration phases related to forced migration and propose three arguments. First, the chronic neglect of the large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the discourses on the "refugee crisis" needs to be corrected in order to develop sustainable solutions with a framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Second, protection gaps in the global system of protection need to be effectively closed to resolve conflicts with border management and normative global health frameworks. Third, effective policies need to be developed and implemented to meet the health and humanitarian needs of forced migrants; at the same time, the solidarity crisis within the EU needs to be overcome. These stakes are high. EU countries, being committed to global health, should urgently address these areas. PMID:28812838

  2. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  3. Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin

    2017-09-01

    Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario (the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.

  4. FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND GLOBAL CHANGE: THE CASE STUDY OF INSUBRIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pautasso

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems face multiple challenges due to climate change, invasive species, urbanization, land use change and the interactions between these global change drivers. This review provides an overview of such challenges for the case study of Insubria. Insubria is a region on the Southern side of the European Alps, famous for its stunning lakes (e.g., Como, Garda, Lugano, Maggiore, blessed by a relatively mild and humid climate, and shaped by the geologic fault line between the African and European plates. Global change impacts in Insubria pose a threat to its biodiversity and chestnut woodlands, particularly through modified winter forest fire regimes. Insubric biodiversity conservation, in turn, is essential to counteract the effects of climate change. Sustainable management of Insubric forests is made more difficult by rural abandonment, air pollution and invasive exotic species. There is a need to develop reliable long-term bio-indicators and to predict the shift of Insubric species, ecosystems and tree-lines due to rapid climate changes. Insubric studies on forests and global change call for enhanced international collaboration in forest management and research. Interdisciplinary approaches are needed to move from studies of single global change drivers to experiments, scenarios and models taking into account their combination and our responses to global change.

  5. Managing Corporate Responsibility Globally and Locally

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Dana; Knudsen, Jette Steen

    2012-01-01

    Corporate Responsibility (CR) is today an essential component of corporate global strategy. CR can bolster the institutional context for market expansion fill institutional voids or facilitate market entry as a component of non-market strategy. Yet, in fulfilling these functions, CR may need...... to be highly sensitive to local contexts. How can transnational firms organize CR so as to maximize efficiencies from globalization and to minimize the fragmentation of corporate organizational cultures? provide a framework for analyzing the way that corporations coordinate global and local functions. We build...... on this framework in a case study of Novo Nordisk and its approach to determining global and local CR policies and procedures with regard to its China and US subsidiaries. Our findings suggest that it is important for companies to define a common set of organizational norms. In addition, CR need to be sensitive...

  6. Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reck, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference

  7. Global climate change and California's natural ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botkin, D.B.; Nisbet, R.A.; Woodhouse, C.; Ferren, W.; Bicknell, S.; Bentley, B.

    1991-01-01

    If projections of global climate models are correct, the natural ecosystems of California might undergo major changes during the next century. Such changes might include large economic losses in timber, fisheries, and recreation; major changes in our national and state parks and forests and in our nature preserves and conservation areas; increase in extinction of endangered species; loss of large areas of existing habitats; and development of new habitats whose location and areal extent can only be surmised. Many areas currently set aside for the conservation of specific ecosystems might no longer be suitable to them. Yet, in spite of the potential seriousness of these problems, which could dwarf all other environmental changes, California is at present in a poor situation to project what the effects of global change on its natural ecosystems might be

  8. Open access: changing global science publishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D

    2013-08-01

    The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

  9. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  10. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  11. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  12. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  13. A global change policy for Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, H.

    1993-01-01

    The Alaska Science and Engineering Advisory Committee attempted to formulate a suitable state policy for global climate change. The main elements and rationale for this policy are described, along with lessons learned from the Montreal protocol on global ozone and the policy itself. A discussion of issues relating to public presentation and reaction to a climate change policy indicates that elements necessary for a strategy presenting a case for global change needs to be credible, simple, and unambiguous, with risks clearly defined. Society and business must see themselves as stakeholders in the issue, and policies must be formulated accordingly. The Montreal protocol provides an example of success in advanced planning on a major global issue. The six main components of the Alaskan policy relate to fossil fuel production and marketing, the economic mix of energy production for in-state use, the efficiency and effectiveness of energy end-use services, the impact of climatic change on Alaska as a geographic unit, Alaska as a high-latitude site for climate change monitoring and analysis, and Alaskan participation with other countries in research and policy development. 7 refs

  14. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  15. Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses - CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions due to land use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa, L.P.; Ribeiro, S.K.; Muylaert, M.S.; Campos, C.P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of how to take into account the anthropogenic contribution to the increase of global temperature, instead of being restricted to the carbon emissions adopted in the Kyoto Protocol on responsibility sharing. It is shown the sensibility of the results to the variation of the parameters from different authors used for simulating the climate response based in the so-called Brazilian Proposal (BP). It is also discussed the methodological and scientific aspects of the BP being discussed by an expert group coordinated by SBSTA/UNFCCC and results of energy sector and land use change contributions by groups of countries. (author)

  16. Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses--CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions due to land use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa, L.P.; Ribeiro, S.K.; Muylaert, M.S.; Pires de Campos, Christiano

    2004-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of how to take into account the anthropogenic contribution to the increase of global temperature, instead of being restricted to the Carbon emissions adopted in the Kyoto Protocol on responsibility sharing. It is shown the sensibility of the results to the variation of the parameters from different authors used for simulating the climate response based in the so-called Brazilian Proposal (BP). It is also discussed the methodological and scientific aspects of the BP being discussed by an expert group coordinated by SBSTA/UNFCCC and results of energy sector and land use change contributions by groups of countries

  17. A dissenting view on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linden, H.R.

    1993-01-01

    Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

  18. Biological consequences of global change for birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Anders Pape

    2013-06-01

    Climate is currently changing at an unprecedented rate; so also human exploitation is rapidly changing the Earth for agriculture, forestry, fisheries and urbanization. In addition, pollution has affected even the most remote ecosystems, as has the omnipresence of humans, with consequences in particular for animals that keep a safe distance from potential predators, including human beings. Importantly, all of these changes are occurring simultaneously, with increasing intensity, and further deterioration in both the short and the long-term is predicted. While the consequences of these components of global change are relatively well studied on their own, the effects of their interactions, such as the combined effects of climate change and agriculture, or the combined effects of agriculture through nutrient leakage to freshwater and marine ecosystems and fisheries, and the effects of climate change and urbanization, are poorly understood. Here, I provide a brief overview of the effects of climate change on phenology, diversity, abundance, interspecific interactions and population dynamics of birds. I address whether these effects of changing temperatures are direct, or indirect through effects of climate change on the phenology, distribution or abundance of food, parasites and predators. Finally, I review interactions between different components of global change. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

  19. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  20. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  1. Socio-economic data for global environmental change research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Ilona; Biewald, Anne; Coumou, Dim

    2015-01-01

    Subnational socio-economic datasets are required if we are to assess the impacts of global environmental changes and to improve adaptation responses. Institutional and community efforts should concentrate on standardization of data collection methodologies, free public access, and geo-referencing....

  2. Global climate change: a framework for nursing action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GAVIN J. ANDREWS

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent research papers and commentaries have articulated the considerable effects that global climate change has had, and will have, on human health. Arguing that nursing must become more centrally involved in mitigation and response efforts, this paper develops a framework for professional consideration and action. Four core components of the framework are common tactics, maximizing specialties, prioritizing places and public scholarship.

  3. Global Environmental Change : Understanding the Human Dimensions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stern, Paul C; Druckman, Daniel; Young, Oran R; National Research Council; National Academy of Sciences; Stern, Paul C; Druckman, Daniel

    ... on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Commission on the Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1992 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files ...

  4. Global environmental change: understanding the human dimensions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stern, Paul C; Young, Oran R; Druckman, Daniel

    ... on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Commission on the Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1992 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files ...

  5. Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Akmaev, R. A.; Beig, G.; Bremer, J.; Emmert, J. T.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 314, č. 5803 (2006), s. 1253-1254 ISSN 0036-8075 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 091 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Global change * Upper Atmosphere * Ionosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 30.028, year: 2006

  6. Global Proteome Response to Deletion of Genes Related to Mercury Methylation and Dissimilatory Metal Reduction Reveals Changes in Respiratory Metabolism in Geobacter sulfurreducens PCA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Chen; Johs, Alexander; Chen, Hongmei; Mann, Benjamin F; Lu, Xia; Abraham, Paul E; Hettich, Robert L; Gu, Baohua

    2016-10-07

    Geobacter sulfurreducens PCA can reduce, sorb, and methylate mercury (Hg); however, the underlying biochemical mechanisms of these processes and interdependent metabolic pathways remain unknown. In this study, shotgun proteomics was used to compare global proteome profiles between wild-type G. sulfurreducens PCA and two mutant strains: a ΔhgcAB mutant, which is deficient in two genes known to be essential for Hg methylation and a ΔomcBESTZ mutant, which is deficient in five outer membrane c-type cytochromes and thus impaired in its ability for dissimilatory metal ion reduction. We were able to delineate the global response of G. sulfurreducens PCA in both mutants and identify cellular networks and metabolic pathways that were affected by the loss of these genes. Deletion of hgcAB increased the relative abundances of proteins implicated in extracellular electron transfer, including most of the c-type cytochromes, PilA-C, and OmpB, and is consistent with a previously observed increase in Hg reduction in the ΔhgcAB mutant. Deletion of omcBESTZ was found to significantly increase relative abundances of various methyltransferases, suggesting that a loss of dissimilatory reduction capacity results in elevated activity among one-carbon (C1) metabolic pathways and thus increased methylation. We show that G. sulfurreducens PCA encodes only the folate branch of the acetyl-CoA pathway, and proteins associated with the folate branch were found at lower abundance in the ΔhgcAB mutant strain than the wild type. This observation supports the hypothesis that the function of HgcA and HgcB is linked to C1 metabolism through the folate branch of the acetyl-CoA pathway by providing methyl groups required for Hg methylation.

  7. A review of global environmental mercury processes in response to human and natural perturbations: Changes of emissions, climate, and land use

    OpenAIRE

    Obrist, Daniel; Zhang, Lei; Jiskra, Martin; Kirk, Jane L.; Sunderland, Elsie M.; Selin, Noelle E

    2018-01-01

    We review recent progress in our understanding of the global cycling of mercury (Hg), including best estimates of Hg concentrations and pool sizes in major environmental compartments and exchange processes within and between these reservoirs. Recent advances include the availability of new global datasets covering areas of the world where environmental Hg data were previously lacking; integration of these data into global and regional models is continually improving estimates of global Hg cyc...

  8. Plutonium challenges. Changing dimensions of global cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oi, Noboru

    1998-01-01

    Global developoments in the 1990s have presented the international community with a new and serious challenge: a growing accumulation of plutonium originating from both civilian and military nuclear programmes. It arises from a number of developments. In this article, selected aspects of the issue of plutonium management in civilian nuclear programmes are discussed over a longer term perspective in the context of global cooperation and the IAEA's own role, which is evolving in response to the interests of its Member States. It draws upon discussions at international fora, including the International Symposium on Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Reactor Strategies in Jun 1997

  9. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  10. Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2009-01-01

    By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need

  11. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  12. Changing Foundations for Global Business Systems Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slepniov, Dmitrij; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum; Gubi, Ebbe

    2011-01-01

    Companies are actively seeking new competitive advantages by changing the location and ownership of their manufacturing processes. This process results in increasing fragmentation and dispersion of global business systems of companies. The purpose of this paper is to identify how companies may...... improve the integration of such business systems. The paper draws on a case study of a Danish industrial equipment firm. The paper describes and analyzes the company’s operations network configurations, which lay at the foundations of the company’s global business system. It is demonstrated how...... the operations configurations have been changing over time and affecting the overall business system. The paper identifies the key determinants and outcomes of this change. Moreover, it proposes how the design of operations configurations can be improved through the development of a distinct systemic approach...

  13. Macroecology of Environmental Change Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard

    . The connection of these findings to global warming warrant further investigation, but has the potential to change our perspective of climate change as a destabilizing factor in wildlife communities at large spatial scales. The potential for cold- and warm-adapted species to coexist during climate warming......Human induced changes in the earth system, such as anthropogenic climate change, cause loss of biodiversity that feed back as food, health and environmental challenges for human society. Climate change is one of the main threats to biodiversity and human society due to its global manifestation...... with climate change being proposed as one of the causes. The chapter investigates the evidence for recent increases in tropical precipitation and primary productivity to cause a recovery in migrant populations. It presents novel evidence for two dichotomies in the effect of such “re-greening”. Over yearly time...

  14. Mutualism and impacts of global change: response of an important and neglected component of the biodiversity; Mutualisme et impacts des changements globaux: reponse d'une composante importante et negligee de la biodiversite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hossaert-Mckey, M. [Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), UMR CNRS 5175, 34 - Montpellier (France)

    2007-07-01

    We are studying the impact of global change on two obligate species-specific insect-plant mutualisms. Our approach combines correlative methods (examining spatial patterns of genetic diversity in populations of pairs of mutualists, to examine their responses to past climate change) and experiments (studying responses of plant partners to CO{sub 2} fertilization). Mutualisms function because the partners have contrasting and complementary biological traits, so that a service implying only a low cost to one partner may confer a great benefit to the other. Because they can lead mutualist partners to respond differently to rapid ecological change, the biological differences that are fundamental to mutualisms may also make them vulnerable. Imbalances thereby introduced can disrupt the functioning of the mutualism. By comparing two strongly contrasting systems-fig/wasp pollination mutualisms and ant-plant protection mutualisms-we aim to characterize the diversity of responses of mutualisms to global change. By identifying points in common, we also aim to propose robust generalizations about the response to global change of obligate, specific mutualisms, an important and neglected component of tropical biodiversity. Our results show that the two mutualisms studied differ greatly in their response to Pleistocene and Holocene climatic fluctuations. Fig/wasp systems show little spatial genetic differentiation, indicating that the great dispersal capacities of both figs and their pollinating wasps resulted in maintenance of high effective population sizes throughout cycles of climatic and vegetation change. In contrast, limited dispersal capacity of both ant and plant partners has resulted in greater impact of climatic fluctuations on ant/plant protection mutualisms: species-distribution patterns suggest restriction of the system to refugia, and strong spatial genetic structure indicates widespread bottlenecks during fragmentation and expansion. Alternate contraction and

  15. Mutualism and impacts of global change: response of an important and neglected component of the biodiversity; Mutualisme et impacts des changements globaux: reponse d'une composante importante et negligee de la biodiversite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hossaert-Mckey, M [Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), UMR CNRS 5175, 34 - Montpellier (France)

    2007-07-01

    We are studying the impact of global change on two obligate species-specific insect-plant mutualisms. Our approach combines correlative methods (examining spatial patterns of genetic diversity in populations of pairs of mutualists, to examine their responses to past climate change) and experiments (studying responses of plant partners to CO{sub 2} fertilization). Mutualisms function because the partners have contrasting and complementary biological traits, so that a service implying only a low cost to one partner may confer a great benefit to the other. Because they can lead mutualist partners to respond differently to rapid ecological change, the biological differences that are fundamental to mutualisms may also make them vulnerable. Imbalances thereby introduced can disrupt the functioning of the mutualism. By comparing two strongly contrasting systems-fig/wasp pollination mutualisms and ant-plant protection mutualisms-we aim to characterize the diversity of responses of mutualisms to global change. By identifying points in common, we also aim to propose robust generalizations about the response to global change of obligate, specific mutualisms, an important and neglected component of tropical biodiversity. Our results show that the two mutualisms studied differ greatly in their response to Pleistocene and Holocene climatic fluctuations. Fig/wasp systems show little spatial genetic differentiation, indicating that the great dispersal capacities of both figs and their pollinating wasps resulted in maintenance of high effective population sizes throughout cycles of climatic and vegetation change. In contrast, limited dispersal capacity of both ant and plant partners has resulted in greater impact of climatic fluctuations on ant/plant protection mutualisms: species-distribution patterns suggest restriction of the system to refugia, and strong spatial genetic structure indicates widespread bottlenecks during fragmentation and expansion. Alternate contraction and

  16. Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

    2016-12-01

    The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

  17. Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

  18. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  19. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  20. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  1. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and

  2. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  3. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #37: PUBLICATION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY 2002 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM"

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY 2002 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the Committee on Environment and Natural Reso...

  4. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #8: OUR CHANGING PLANET: THE FY2000 U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    This edition of Global Change Research News focuses on the publication of the new OurChanging Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices ofthe President's National Science and Technology Council. It...

  5. Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

    2018-03-01

    Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25-40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

  6. Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Belnap, Jayne; Büdel, Burkhard; Crutzen, Paul J.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Weber, Bettina

    2018-01-01

    Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estimate the global distribution of biocrusts and their response to global change using future projected scenarios. We find that biocrusts currently covering approximately 12% of Earth’s terrestrial surface will decrease by about 25–40% within 65 years due to anthropogenically caused climate change and land-use intensification, responding far more drastically than vascular plants. Our results illustrate that current biocrust occurrence is mainly driven by a combination of precipitation, temperature and land management, and future changes are expected to be affected by land-use and climate change in similar proportion. The predicted loss of biocrusts may substantially reduce the microbial contribution to nitrogen cycling and enhance the emissions of soil dust, which affects the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health and should be considered in the modelling, mitigation and management of global change.

  7. New ecology, global change, and forest politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampson, N.

    1993-01-01

    Ecosystems constantly change. Some changes are caused by natural conditions that evolve at a very slow pace including climate change, species evolution and migration, and soil formation. Forests don't always respond to gradual changes in gradual ways, though gradual change may be hidden for years within the normal variation in the ecosystem. The industrial age has resulted in a rapid and continuing buildup of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons which trap heat in the greenhouse effect. Industrial processes also emit oxides of nitrogen and sulfur that change atmospheric chemistry and alter the nutrient input into ecosystems. Natural forests face a hard time adjusting to a rate of climatic change that is 3 to 10 times faster than species can migrate and that increases the occurrence of major windstorms. In the forest ecosystem where trees are removed or destroyed under rapid climatic change, conditions may not return to their original state, even if we try to restore it. When the ecosystem changes faster than the bureaucracy of the management agency, a serious problem exists. New understandings of ecology and global change may force new ways of thinking in these situations

  8. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves

  9. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  10. A DBMS architecture for global change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachem, Nabil I.; Gennert, Michael A.; Ward, Matthew O.

    1993-08-01

    The goal of this research is the design and development of an integrated system for the management of very large scientific databases, cartographic/geographic information processing, and exploratory scientific data analysis for global change research. The system will represent both spatial and temporal knowledge about natural and man-made entities on the eath's surface, following an object-oriented paradigm. A user will be able to derive, modify, and apply, procedures to perform operations on the data, including comparison, derivation, prediction, validation, and visualization. This work represents an effort to extend the database technology with an intrinsic class of operators, which is extensible and responds to the growing needs of scientific research. Of significance is the integration of many diverse forms of data into the database, including cartography, geography, hydrography, hypsography, images, and urban planning data. Equally important is the maintenance of metadata, that is, data about the data, such as coordinate transformation parameters, map scales, and audit trails of previous processing operations. This project will impact the fields of geographical information systems and global change research as well as the database community. It will provide an integrated database management testbed for scientific research, and a testbed for the development of analysis tools to understand and predict global change.

  11. Can air pollutant controls change global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strefler, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Air pollution policies do not affect long-term climate targets. • Reduction of aerosols counteracts a fraction of the reduction of Kyoto forcing. • Air pollution policies may affect the rate of climate change in the short term. • There is no tradeoff between clean air and climate policies. - Abstract: In this paper we analyze the interaction between climate and air pollution policies using the integrated assessment model REMIND coupled to the reduced-form climate model MAGICC. Since overall, aerosols tend to cool the atmosphere, there is a concern that a reduction of pollutant emissions could accelerate global warming and offset the climate benefits of carbon dioxide emission reductions. We investigate scenarios which independently reduce emissions from either large-scale sources, such as power plants, or small-scale sources, such as cooking and heating stoves. Large-scale sources are likely to be easier to control, but their aerosol emissions are characterized by a relatively high sulfur content, which tends to result in atmospheric cooling. Pollution from small-scale sources, by contrast, is characterized by a high share of carbonaceous aerosol, which is an important contributor to global warming. We find that air pollution policies can significantly reduce aerosol emissions when no climate policies are in place. Stringent climate policies lead to a large reduction of fossil fuel use, and therefore result in a concurrent reduction of air pollutant emissions. These reductions partly reduce aerosol masking, thus initially counteracting the reduction of greenhouse gas forcing, however not overcompensating it. If climate policies are in place, air pollution policies have almost no impacts on medium- and long-term radiative forcing. Therefore there is no conflict of objectives between clean air and limiting global warming. We find that the stringency of air pollution policies may influence the rate of global temperature change in the first decade

  12. Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

  13. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  14. How will changes in globalization impact growth in south Asia ?

    OpenAIRE

    Ghani, Ejaz; Anand, Rahul

    2009-01-01

    The current global crisis may change globalization itself, as both developed and developing countries adjust to global imbalances that contributed to the crisis. Will these changes help or hinder economic recovery and growth in South Asia? This is the focus of this paper. The three models of globalization--trade, capital, and economic management--may not be the same in the future. Changes ...

  15. A Look at Global Climate Change Through Papal Encyclicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutry-Korycka, Małgorzata

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this article is a comprehensive review of Papal Encyclicals in the context of global environmental and climatic change, against the backdrop of the activity of multinational institutions. The Encyclicals look to the future in teaching the faithful, in a manner which indicates that they are part of a goal-oriented policy, both in terms of scientific research, and concrete economic, social, and geopolitical activity. Attention has also been paid to the relationship between the activity of humankind, and global environmental change, particularly of the biotic and climatic variety. If this aggressive anthropogenic activity cannot be deemed responsible for initiating global warming, it may certainly be seen to have "encouraged" it. The impulses behind sustainable development, as well as the instruments of its implementation, and the inspiration behind the idea, have also been discussed. The achievement of this goal, necessitating the balancing of anthropological aspirations and the long-term security of the environment are also referenced in the Encyclicals.

  16. Load and Global Response of Ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    The present monograph covers wave load and global structural response for ships. It is primary written as a textbook for students with an introductionary background in naval architecture and a basic knowledge of statistics and strength of materials. The subjects are treated in details starting from...... first principles. The aim has been to derive and present the necessary theoretical framework for predicting the extreme loads and the corresponding hull girder stresses the ship may be subjected to during its operational lifetime.Although some account is given to reliabiity analysis, the present...

  17. Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

  18. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  19. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grubler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic 'learning rates' that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. In contrast, most baseline projections for emissions of carbon, the chief cause of global warming, ignore this robust historical trend and show Iittle or no decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and

  20. INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

    2010-06-01

    The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

  1. Microenvironmental change as a mechanism to study global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lortie, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Global change is a set of significant processes that influence all aspects of ecosystem functioning and often-natural services within Santa Barbara County. The sensitivity of coastal and urban systems is certainly very high. However, profound changes are also predicted for arid and semi-arid systems globally, and California is no exception. These dryland systems are less buffered by oceanic processes and typically express high inter-annual variation in precipitation and temperatures in addition to perturbations associated with long-term droughts. However, climate estimates and downscaled values can present challenges in providing evidence at the scale relevant to individual species or individuals, and the importance of biotic interactions must be coupled to these estimates in space and time. Coupled indicators of key micro-environmental measures to both positive and negative interactions between foundation species and other organisms provide a metric of buffering capacity and resilience to global change at fine spatial scales. Consequently, the primary objective of this research project is to provide both the a well-articulated, ecologically relevant micro-environmental big data measure of global change within Santa Barbara County and a coupled estimate of concurrent changes in interactions in key species within the region. Shrubs directly and indirectly buffered local changes in the microenvironment thereby functioning as refuges for other species within arid and semi-arid regions subject to dramatic global change drivers. The following major patterns were identified: (i) shrub micro-environments reduce the level of stress and amplitude of variation associated with temperature and moisture, (ii) many plant and animal species including threatened lizards are relatively more common with shrubs within the region, and (iii) the variation in the interaction patterns between species relates to the extent of amelioration provided by shrub-biodiversity complexes within

  2. The global change challenge: a regional perspective

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, F

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available with resolution about 210 km Climate Modelling at the CSIR NRE ? NWP and RCM capacity build around the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) of the CSIRO ? A cube-based global model; semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit solution of the primitive equations... to impact on crop yield, livestock, biodiversity and energy demand ? CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za RCM ens-ave projected change in annual rainfall (%) for 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 Southern Africa projected to become generally drier...

  3. Why do Cultures Change? The Challenges of Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Suberchicot, Alain

    2009-01-01

    This essay explores cultural change in the context of the economic globalization currently underway. It aims at analysing the role that theoretical inventiveness and ethical value play in fashioning broader cultural representation and responsibility, and shall explore issues of cultural disunity and conflict, while assessing the influence that leading intellectuals may have in promoting a finer perception of value worldwide. The role of higher education as an asset in the defence of democracy...

  4. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  5. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Ellis, E.C.; Letourneau, A.

    2011-01-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here

  6. Global change and its implications for Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weller, G.

    1993-01-01

    In the 1980s versions of climate models, the Arctic and Antarctic regions were considered crucial in understanding and predicting climate change, and there is also agreement that climate change will have large impacts in the Arctic since the climate signal is amplified at high latitudes. The earlier climate change scenarios are re-examined for the case of Alaska, in light of more recent information. Observational evidence in the Arctic over the last few decades agrees well with predictions of a current global climate model, including temperature increase over land masses of up to 1 degree C per decade in winter, with smaller changes in summer. Other indirect evidence of a warmer Arctic climate includes receding glaciers and warmer permafrost temperatures. It is predicted that after the CO 2 content of the atmosphere doubles, winter temperatures in Alaska will increase 6-8 degree C. In much of the interior, mean annual temperature will rise above freezing, leading to disappearance of discontinuous permafrost. The growing season would be lengthened by about three weeks, vegetation types and the abundance and distribution of mammals will change, and there will be less sea ice along coastal areas. Impacts on human activities will be both adverse and favorable; for example, in the petroleum industry, maintenance of pipelines and roads will be more difficult but offshore exploration and marine supply operations will be made easier. 6 refs., 3 tabs

  7. El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

    2009-12-08

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

  8. Interactions between states and markets in a global context of change : Contribution for building a research agenda on stakeholders’ social responsibility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A. Ashley (Patricia Almeida)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis working paper is part of ongoing research on international comparison between European and Brazilian public policies for cross-sector and multi-actor social responsibility based on a concept of stakeholders’ social responsibility as proposed by Ashley (2010). One of the propositions

  9. Experts' workshop on critical issues in the science of global climate change. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    A summary is given of the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association's Workshop on 'Critical issues in the science of global climate change' held in 1994. The topics of the panel sessions were (1) modelling global climate change: capabilities and limitations; (2)the physics and chemistry of greenhouse gas concentrations; (3) other factors in predicting climate change; and (4) ecosystem response. (UK)

  10. NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian

  11. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  12. Mycorrhizas and global environmental change: Research at different scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staddon, P.L.; Heinemeyer, A.; Fitter, A.H.

    2002-01-01

    Global environmental change (GEC), in particular rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature, will affect most ecosystems. The varied responses of plants to these aspects of GEC are well documented. As with other key below-ground components of terrestrial ecosystems, the response...... of the ubiquitous mycorrhizal fungal root symbionts has received limited attention. Most of the research on the effects of GEC on mycorrhizal fungi has been pot-based with a few field (especially monoculture) studies. A major question that arises in all these studies is whether the GEC effects on the mycorrhizal...

  13. Global low-carbon transition and China's response strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Kun He

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Paris Agreement establishes a new mechanism for post-2020 global climate governance, and sets long-term goals for global response to climate change, which will accelerate worldwide low-carbon transformation of economic development pattern, promote the revolutionary reform of energy system, boost a fundamental change in the mode of social production and consumption, and further the civilization of human society from industrial civilization to eco-civilization. The urgency of global low-carbon transition will reshape the competition situation of world's economy, trade and technology. Taking the construction of eco-civilization as a guide, China explores green and low-carbon development paths, establishes ambitious intended nationally determined contribution (INDC targets and action plans, advances energy production and consumption revolution, and speeds up the transformation of economic development pattern. These strategies and actions not only confirm to the trend of the world low-carbon transition, but also meet the intrinsic requirements for easing the domestic resources and environment constraints and realizing sustainable development. They are multi-win-win strategies for promotion of economic development and environmental protection and mitigation of carbon emissions. China should take the global long-term emission reduction targets as a guide, and formulate medium and long-term low-carbon development strategy, build the core competitiveness of low-carbon advanced technology and development pattern, and take an in-depth part in global governance so as to reflect the responsibility of China as a great power in constructing a community of common destiny for all mankind and addressing global ecological crisis.

  14. Climate change and irrigation. An Australian response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pigram, J.J.

    1995-01-01

    Climatic changes on a global or regional scale, resulting from human activities, and the likely effects of such changes on Australia were discussed. Irrigation concerns of the Murray-Darling Basin in southeast Australia associated with global climate were described. Potential risks for regional economies and communities (agriculture in this instance) which may be significant, were assessed. Restructuring of the irrigation industry, and appropriate policy initiatives were urged now, while there is still some time to prepare. Application of the 'Precautionary Principle' to reduce global climate change effects was recommended. (This principle states that in areas threatened by severe climatic change lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as an excuse to delay decisive measures designed to mitigate environmental degradation). Bold policy adjustments and the creation of a new institutional framework to promote sustainable resource management were called for. It was suggested that the region could become a 'laboratory' for the whole world for assessing the effectiveness of managerial responses to environmental changes

  15. Malaysia's contributions towards global climate change concerns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuzlaini Mohd Yusop; Yvonne Lunsong; Norhayati Kamaruddin

    2000-01-01

    Concerns about Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change were voiced by the scientific community as far back as the International Geophysical year in 1957 when climate changes scenarios and impacts were analysed. More recently, the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, renewing a global acknowledgement and commitment towards curbing GHG emissions. Little progress was made until the adoption of Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, over 5 years later. Basically, developed countries would not commit to strong measures if there were no global effort (i. e. corresponding efforts by developing countries) while developing countries are waiting for developed countries to show concrete results first. Since 1950, developed countries cumulatively produced more than 80% of worldwide GHG emissions. Between 1950 and 1990, North America alone contributed 40 billion tons of carbon while Western and Eastern Europe contributed 57 billion tons. Developing countries produced only 24 billion tons of carbon emissions during the same period. At present, per capita emission in developed countries are also about ten times higher than those of developing countries. This imbalance has caused most developing countries to adopt a wait till others do it stance and justifiably so. Nonetheless, curbing GHG emissions should be a larger community effort (which includes business and the public) and not just the efforts of Governments and officials. Thus, the deciding factors should make more business or economic sense. It is likely that business and the general public would listen and contribute positively if they are made aware of potential cost savings and international competitiveness to be derived from these efforts. During the current economic slowdown, especially in East Asia, it makes business sense to defer the capital investment in new electricity generating capacity and related energy supply infrastructure. Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  16. Air Pollution, Global Change and Forests in the New Millennium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karnosky, D.F.; Pikkarainen, J.; Percy, K.E.; Simpson, C.; Chappelka, A.H.

    2003-01-01

    The chapters in this book present a snapshot of the state of knowledge of air pollution effects at the beginning of the 21st century. From their different disciplines, a distinguished collection of authors document their understanding of how leaves, trees, and forests respond to air pollutants and climate change. Scenarios of global change and air pollution are described. The authors describe responses of forests to climate variability, tropospheric ozone, rising atmospheric CO2, the combination of CO2 and ozone, and deposition of acidic compounds and heavy metals. The responses to ozone receive particular attention because of increasing concern about its damaging effects and increasing concentrations in rural areas. Scaling issues are addressed - from leaves to trees, from juvenile trees to mature trees, from short-term responses to long-term responses, and from small-scale experiments and observations to large-scale forest ecosystems. This book is one major product of a conference sponsored by the International Union of Forestry Research Organizations, the USDA Forest Service Global Change Northern Stations Program, the Arthur Ross Foundation, NCASI, the Canadian Forest Service, and Michigan Technological University. The conference was held in May 2000 in Houghton, Michigan, USA

  17. Responses of Seasonal Precipitation Intensity to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia

    2016-04-01

    Under global warming, the water vapor increases with rising temperature at the rate of 7%/K. Most previous studies focus on the spatial differences of precipitation and suggest that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier. Our recent studies show a temporal disparity of global precipitation, which the wet season becomes wetter and dry season becomes drier; therefore, the annual range increases. However, such changes in the annual range are not homogeneous globally, and in fact, the drier trend over the ocean is much larger than that over the land, where the dry season does not become drier. Such precipitation change over land is likely because of decreased omega at 500hPa (more upward motion) in the reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2013. The trends of vertical velocity and moist static energy profile over the increased precipitation regions become more unstable. The instability is most likely attributed to the change in specific humility below 400hPa. Further, we will use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate whether the precipitation responses in dry season are different between the ocean and land under global warming.

  18. The Geosphere - Biosphere international program and the global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanin, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of the Geosphere-Biosphere International Program (GBIP) is to achieve a correct approach of the various biogeochemical interactions between the different components of the environment (oceans, atmosphere, biosphere). The main themes are: study of the chemical regulation in the global atmosphere and influence of natural and anthropogenic processes on trace element cycles; influence of the oceanic biogeochemical processes on climates and their response to climatic changes; influence of soil utilization modification (especially coastal) on climates and ecosystems; interaction between vegetation and the water cycle; interaction between climatic changes, ecosystems and agricultural productivity; approaches to climate modelling. French component of the GBIP is presented [fr

  19. A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee

    2010-02-01

    Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

  20. Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

    2018-05-27

    Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  1. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  2. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence

  3. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  4. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  5. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  6. Global precipitations and climate change. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desbois, M.; Desalmand, F.

    1994-01-01

    The workshop reviewed the present status of knowledge concerning the past and present evolution of the distribution of precipitations at global scale, related to climate evolution at different time scales. This review was intended to assess the availability and quality of data which could help, through validation and initialization of model studies, to improve our understanding of the processes determining these precipitation changes. On another hand, the modelling specialists presented their actual use of precipitation data. Exchanges of views between the modelling and observing communities were thus made possible, leading to a set of recommendations for future studies. Sessions were then devoted to specific themes: 1) Paleoclimatology, 2) data collection, history and statistics, programmes, 3) methodologies and accuracy of large scale estimation of precipitation from conventional data, 4) estimation of precipitation from satellite data, 5) modelling studies. (orig.)

  7. The Changing Global Context of Virtual Workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A. Ejiwale

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The technological revolution occurring in today’s market place has made it possible for many companies to be innovative about the way and where work is done. To get the job done, due to digital revolution, companies have turned to virtual workforce to harness the benefits of connectivity and effective information sharing among stakeholders to get the job done. More important, the success of coordinating work among a virtual workforce for profitability in a rapidly changing global environment depends on “effective indirect communication” between the leadership and the virtual workforce. This article will address the importance of effective communication as a necessary tool for the success of e-leadership, productivity improvement in virtual work environment.

  8. National action to mitigate global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-06-01

    Over 170 participants from 60 countries met for three days in Copenhagen from 7 to 9 June 1994 to discuss howe the aims of the United Nations Framework convention on Climate Change can be translated into practical action. The Conference was organised by the UNEP collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE), with financial support from the Danish International Development Agency (Danida), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark. The main objective of the conference was to identify common approaches to national mitigation analysis for countries to use in meeting their commitments under the FCCC, and in setting priorities for national actions. Although addressing a broader theme, the conference marked the completion and publication of the second phase on UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Study. (au)

  9. Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

    This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

  10. Perception of Global Climate Change as a Mediator of the Effects of Major and Religious Affiliation on College Students' Environmentally Responsible Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusco, Emily; Snider, Anthony; Luo, Shanhong

    2012-01-01

    Previous research has shown a reliable association between environmental education and environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). Research has also shown that aspects of religion were associated with ERB. However, the mechanisms of associations are unclear. This study builds on previous research addressing the relationship between student major,…

  11. Responsible Investing in the Asia-Pacific Region: Understanding Sustainability and Investments in Japan and Hong Kong/China in an Era of Global Climate and Environmental Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Park (Jacob)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The author of this thesis examined the concept and market development of responsible investing (RI), which can be defined as an investment process that integrates social and environmental considerations within the context of traditional investment processes. RI has

  12. Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

    2009-12-01

    Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

  13. Understanding Global Change: Tools for exploring Earth processes and biotic change through time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.; Berbeco, M.

    2014-12-01

    Teaching global change is one of the great pedagogical challenges of our day because real understanding entails integrating a variety of concepts from different scientific subject areas, including chemistry, physics, and biology, with a variety of causes and impacts in the past, present, and future. With the adoption of the Next Generation Science Standards, which emphasize climate change and other human impacts on natural systems, there has never been a better time to provide instructional support to educators on these topics. In response to this clear need, the University of California Museum of Paleontology, in collaboration with the National Center for Science Education, developed a new web resource for teachers and students titled "Understanding Global Change" (UGC) that introduces the drivers and impacts of global change. This website clarifies the connections among deep time, modern Earth system processes, and anthropogenic influences, and provides K-16 instructors with a wide range of easy-to-use tools, strategies, and lesson plans for communicating these important concepts regarding global change and the basic Earth systems processes. In summer 2014, the UGC website was field-tested during a workshop with 25 K-12 teachers and science educators. Feedback from participants helped the UGC team develop and identify pedagogically sound lesson plans and instructional tools on global change. These resources are accessible through UGC's searchable database, are aligned with NGSS and Common Core, and are categorized by grade level, subject, and level of inquiry-based instruction (confirmation, structured, guided, open). Providing a range of content and tools at levels appropriate for teachers is essential because our initial needs assessment found that educators often feel that they lack the content knowledge and expertise to address complex, but relevant global change issues, such as ocean acidification and deforestation. Ongoing needs assessments and surveys of

  14. Using long-term ecosystem service and biodiversity data to study the impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change: insights from the global ILTER sites network

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vihervaara, P.; D'Amato, D.; Forsius, M.; Angelstam, P.; Baessler, C.; Balvanera, P.; Boldgiv, B.; Bourgeron, P.; Dick, J.; Kanka, R.; Klotz, S.; Maass, M.; Melecis, V.; Petřík, Petr; Shibata, H.; Tang, J.; Thompson, J.; Zacharias, S.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2013), s. 53-66 ISSN 1877-3435 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7AMB12SK156 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * long-term ecological monitoring * prmanen research plot Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.758, year: 2013

  15. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  16. Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

  17. Global change and the measurement of absolute sea-level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamante, John M.; Pyle, Thomas E.; Carter, William E.; Scherer, Wolfgang

    To quantify properly the long-term response of sea-level to climate change, land motions must be separated from the apparent or relative sea-level change recorded by conventional tide/sea-level gauges. Here we present a concept for global measurement of the true or “absolute” sea-level change, which combines recent advances in space-based geodetic techniques with plans for a global sea-level network under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Data from initial feasibility tests show that land motion, due to global (plate tectonic), regional (glacial rebound), or local (fluid withdrawal) effects, can probably be measured to ±1cm (on a single measurement basis) by an innovative combination of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tevhniques. By making repeated observations of position at a number of tide gauges using portable, economical GPS receivers in a differential mode relative to the fewer, more stable, but more expensive VLBI observatories, it will be possible to subtract land motion from the relative sea-level signal. Decadal to century scale trends at the 1-2mm y -1 level will be resolvable in the sea-level and vertical land motion time series within about a decade. Detection of subsidence or uplift at specific gauges will allow correction for land motion or deletion of bad data when computing regional or global, i.e. eustatic, sea-level changes. In addition to their applications in oceanography and climate studies, such data will test models by Peltier and other that relate mantle viscosity and deglaciation history to present rates of crustal subsidence or uplift. If the predicted crustal motions are confirmed, we can also have more confidence in the use of historical tide/sea-level gauge records in retrospective studies of sea-level change related to climate variability on decadal or longer time scales. It is concluded that as few as one-third (about 100) of the total number of tide/sea-level gauges (250

  18. Global climate change adaptation: examples from Russian boreal forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krankina, O.N.; Dixon, R.K.; Kirilenko, A.P.; Kobak, K.I.

    1997-01-01

    The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaption measures for them: (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation

  19. A review of Thailand's strategies for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boonchalermkit, S.

    1994-01-01

    Thailand is greatly concerned about global climate change, which is caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and the release of chlorofluorocarbons. The country itself is not currently a major contributor to global climate change. However, as Thailand's economy expands and its burning of fossil fuels increases, the country's contribution to global climate change could increase. Thailand's use of primary energy supplies grew at an average rate of 13.4 percent per year in the period 1985 to 1990. The rapid, sustained growth was due to the overall pace of growth in the economy and the expansion of industrial, construction, and transportation activities. The primary energy demand was approximately 31,600 kilotons of oil equivalent (KTOE) in 1990. The transportation sector accounted for the largest proportion of energy demand at 30 percent. Within the next 15 years, the power sector is expected to overtake the transportation sector as the largest consumer of energy. Petroleum is currently the predominant source of energy in Thailand, accounting for 56 percent of the primary energy demand. Thailand recognizes that it has an important part to play in finding solutions to minimizing emissions of greenhouse gases and identifying viable response strategies. Thus, in this paper the authors will present several policy strategies relevant to climate change in Thailand and discuss how they have been implemented and enforced. Policies concerning forestry, energy, and environment are reviewed in detail in this paper

  20. From conceptual pluralism to practical agreement on policy: global responsibility for global health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruger, Jennifer Prah; Hammonds, Rachel; Ooms, Gorik; Barry, Donna; Chapman, Audrey; Van Damme, Wim

    2015-10-28

    As the human cost of the global economic crisis becomes apparent the ongoing discussions surrounding the post-2015 global development framework continue at a frenzied pace. Given the scale and scope of increased globalization moving forward in a post-Millennium Development Goals era, to protect and realize health equity for all people, has never been more challenging or more important. The unprecedented nature of global interdependence underscores the importance of proposing policy solutions that advance realizing global responsibility for global health. This article argues for advancing global responsibility for global health through the creation of a Global Fund for Health. It suggests harnessing the power of the exceptional response to the combined epidemics of AIDS, TB and Malaria, embodied in the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, to realize an expanded, reconceptualized Global Fund for Health. However this proposal creates both an analytical quandary embedded in conceptual pluralism and a practical dilemma for the scope and raison d'etre of a new Global Fund for Health. To address these issues we offer a logical framework for moving from conceptual pluralism in the theories supporting global responsibility for health to practical agreement on policy to realize this end. We examine how the innovations flowing from this exceptional response can be coupled with recent ideas and concepts, for example a global social protection floor, a Global Health Constitution or a Framework Convention for Global Health, that share the global responsibility logic that underpins a Global Fund for Health. The 2014 Lancet Commission on Global Governance for Health Report asks whether a single global health protection fund would be better for global health than the current patchwork of global and national social transfers. We concur with this suggestion and argue that there is much room for practical agreement on a Global Fund for Health that moves from the

  1. Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph. Buongiorno

    2016-01-01

    This paper explored the potential long-term effects of a warming climate on the global wood sector, based on Way and Oren's synthesis (Tree Physiology 30,669-688) indicating positive responses of tree growth to higher temperature in boreal and temperative climates, and negative responses in the topics. Changes in forest productivity were introduced in the Global...

  2. Global climate change and California agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, L.; Rains, W.; Kennedy, L.

    1991-01-01

    This paper has highlighted some of the impacts that a warmer climate may have on agriculture in California. Because of the state's diverse geomorphology it is difficult to predict what crops will grow in which locations under future climate regimes. However, the potential interactions between warmer temperatures, higher CO 2 concentrations, and the factors that affect plant and animal growth may have major consequences for the competitive position of the state's agriculture. Forward-thinking research and public policies are required to assure that responses to climate change will optimize production systems under future constraints

  3. Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowther, T W; Todd-Brown, K E O; Rowe, C W; Wieder, W R; Carey, J C; Machmuller, M B; Snoek, B L; Fang, S; Zhou, G; Allison, S D; Blair, J M; Bridgham, S D; Burton, A J; Carrillo, Y; Reich, P B; Clark, J S; Classen, A T; Dijkstra, F A; Elberling, B; Emmett, B A; Estiarte, M; Frey, S D; Guo, J; Harte, J; Jiang, L; Johnson, B R; Kröel-Dulay, G; Larsen, K S; Laudon, H; Lavallee, J M; Luo, Y; Lupascu, M; Ma, L N; Marhan, S; Michelsen, A; Mohan, J; Niu, S; Pendall, E; Peñuelas, J; Pfeifer-Meister, L; Poll, C; Reinsch, S; Reynolds, L L; Schmidt, I K; Sistla, S; Sokol, N W; Templer, P H; Treseder, K K; Welker, J M; Bradford, M A

    2016-11-30

    The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

  4. Lifespan changes in global and selective stopping and performance adjustments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Christina Van De Laar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examined stopping and performance adjustments in four age groups (M ages: 8, 12, 21, and 76 years. All participants performed on three tasks, a standard two-choice task and the same task in which stop-signal trials were inserted requiring either the suppression of the response activated by the choice stimulus (global stop task or the suppression of the response when one stop signal was presented but not when the other stop signal occurred (selective stop task. The results showed that global stopping was faster than selective stopping in all age groups. Global stopping matured more rapidly than selective stopping. The developmental gain in stopping was considerably more pronounced compared to the loss observed during senescence. All age groups slowed the response on trials without a stop signal in the stop task compared to trials in the choice task, the elderly in particular. In addition, all age groups slowed on trials following stop-signal trials, except the elderly who did not slow following successful inhibits. By contrast, the slowing following failed inhibits was disproportionally larger in the elderly compared to young adults. Finally, sequential effects did not alter the pattern of performance adjustments. The results were interpreted in terms of developmental change in the balance between proactive and reactive control.

  5. Lifespan Changes in Global and Selective Stopping and Performance Adjustments

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Laar, Maria C.; van den Wildenberg, Wery P. M.; van Boxtel, Geert J. M.; van der Molen, Maurits W.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined stopping and performance adjustments in four age groups (M ages: 8, 12, 21, and 76 years). All participants performed on three tasks, a standard two-choice task and the same task in which stop-signal trials were inserted requiring either the suppression of the response activated by the choice stimulus (global stop task) or the suppression of the response when one stop-signal was presented but not when the other stop-signal occurred (selective stop task). The results showed that global stopping was faster than selective stopping in all age groups. Global stopping matured more rapidly than selective stopping. The developmental gain in stopping was considerably more pronounced compared to the loss observed during senescence. All age groups slowed the response on trials without a stop-signal in the stop task compared to trials in the choice task, the elderly in particular. In addition, all age groups slowed on trials following stop-signal trials, except the elderly who did not slow following successful inhibits. By contrast, the slowing following failed inhibits was disproportionally larger in the elderly compared to young adults. Finally, sequential effects did not alter the pattern of performance adjustments. The results were interpreted in terms of developmental change in the balance between proactive and reactive control. PMID:22180746

  6. Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Letcher, Trevor M.

    2009-01-01

    Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

  7. The regions and global warming: Impacts and response strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    To date, much of the attention given to global warming in scientific research as well as in policy development has focused on the global picture. International negotiations and agreements to stabilize, and eventually reduce, greenhouse gas emissions are very important. By themselves, however, they are not sufficient to address global warming. Regional strategies are also needed. They can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and they will be the most effective way to mitigate the consequences of global warming. Adaptive strategies must respond to local and regional conditions. In many countries, subnational jurisdictions such as states and provinces or community organizations can already take effective actions without direction from their national government or waiting for international agreements. An important factor in defining regional approaches is the disparate consequences of climate change for developed and developing areas. Different strategies will also be needed for industrial and agricultural regions. Wealthy industrial regions may be better able to develop capital-intensive, adaptive infrastructure than regions with fewer discretionary resources where people are more vulnerable to the vagaries of weather patterns. On the other hand, regions that rely on indigenous knowledge and local resources may be better equipped to make incremental adaptations and more willing to modify life-styles. Ultimately, all climate change effects are experienced in specific places and effective response depends upon local action. We recognize that individual localities cannot solve a problem of global proportions by acting alone. However, a regional strategy can supplement international and national action and be the focal point for addressing risks in the unique social and economic context of a particular area. These meetings discussions dealt with the impacts and implications of climate change on such things as agriculture, forestry, and policy

  8. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  9. Nuclear security: A global response to a global threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, Yukiya

    2016-01-01

    The threat of nuclear terrorism is real. The possibility of criminals getting hold of nuclear and other radioactive material cannot be ruled out. Much progress has been made in tackling this threat nationally, regionally and globally, but more needs to be done. International cooperation is vital. As the global platform for cooperation in nuclear security, the IAEA helps countries to establish and maintain robust and sustainable national nuclear security regimes. We help ensure that measures are taken to protect nuclear and other radioactive material, as well as the facilities in which such material is housed, from malicious acts. This has been an important year for nuclear security with the entry into force of the Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material. This establishes legally binding commitments for countries to protect nuclear facilities as well as nuclear material in domestic use, storage and transport. I encourage all countries that have not yet done so to adhere to this Amendment and thereby contribute to a stronger global nuclear security regime. In this edition of the IAEA Bulletin, you will learn about the different areas of security where our work is making a real difference. We highlight the progress made in a number of countries.

  10. A Global Drought Observatory for Emergency Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, Jürgen; de Jager, Alfred; Carrão, Hugo; Magni, Diego; Mazzeschi, Marco; Barbosa, Paulo

    2016-04-01

    Droughts are occurring on all continents and across all climates. While in developed countries they cause significant economic and environmental damages, in less developed countries they may cause major humanitarian catastrophes. The magnitude of the problem and the expected increase in drought frequency, extent and severity in many, often highly vulnerable regions of the world demand a change from the current reactive, crisis-management approach towards a more pro-active, risk management approach. Such approach needs adequate and timely information from global to local scales as well as adequate drought management plans. Drought information systems are important for continuous monitoring and forecasting of the situation in order to provide timely information on developing drought events and their potential impacts. Against this background, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing a Global Drought Observatory (GDO) for the European Commission's humanitarian services, providing up-to-date information on droughts world-wide and their potential impacts. Drought monitoring is achieved by a combination of meteorological and biophysical indicators, while the societal vulnerability to droughts is assessed through the targeted analysis of a series of social, economic and infrastructural indicators. The combination of the information on the occurrence and severity of a drought, on the assets at risk and on the societal vulnerability in the drought affected areas results in a likelihood of impact, which is expressed by a Likelihood of Drought Impact (LDI) indicator. The location, extent and magnitude of the LDI is then further analyzed against the number of people and land use/land cover types affected in order to provide the decision bodies with information on the potential humanitarian and economic bearings in the affected countries or regions. All information is presented through web-mapping interfaces based on OGC standards and customized reports can be drawn by the

  11. Global but fair. Controvert the climatic change, allow development; Global aber gerecht. Klimawandel bekaempfen, Entwicklung ermoeglichen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The book includes the following chapters: global but fair: climate compatible development for everybody; climatic change consequences und vulnerabilities; ethic dimension: fairness in the context of climatic change and poverty; options and challenges for emissions abatement; options for the adaptation to the climatic change; global deal for climate and development policy; convert the climatic change, allow development: ten political messages.

  12. Global changes and the air-sea exchange of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    Present and potential future changes to the global environment have important implications for marine pollution and for the air-sea exchange of both anthropogenic and natural substances. This report addresses three issues related to the potential impact of global change on the air-sea exchange of chemicals: Global change and the air-sea transfer of the nutrients nitrogen and iron. Global change and the air-sea exchange of gases. Oceanic responses to radiative and oxidative changes in the atmosphere. The deposition of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen has probably increased biological productivity in coastal regions along many continental margins. Atmospheric deposition of new nitrogen may also have increased productivity somewhat in mid-ocean regions. The projected future increases of nitrogen oxide emissions from Asia, Africa and South America will provide significant increases in the rate of deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the central North Pacific, the equatorial Atlantic, and the equatorial and central South Indian Oceans. Atmospheric iron may be an important nutrient in certain open regions. Future changes will likely occur if there are changing patterns of aridity and wind speed as a result of climate change. The most important future effects on surface ocean p CO2 will likely be caused by changes in ocean circulation. The pH of the ocean would decrease by ∼0.3 units for a doubling of p CO2 , reducing the capacity of the ocean to take up CO 2 . There is increasing evidence that dimethyl sulfide from the ocean is a source of cloud condensation nuclei and thus a factor controlling cloud albedo. By 2060 in the southern hemisphere reduction in total column stratospheric ozone from recent levels could reach 2 to 5% in the tropics, 10% at mid latitudes, and over 20% at 60 deg C. S. In this same time frame increases in ground-level effective UV-B radiation could reach 5%, 26% and 66%, at low, mid, and high latitudes in the southern hemisphere. Changes in

  13. Effects of three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin

    2017-01-01

    more common than synergistic or antagonistic interactions, (4) C:N:P stoichiometry of soil and soil microbial biomass shows high homeostasis under global change manipulations, and (5) C:N:P responses to global change are strongly affected by ecosystem type, local climate and experimental conditions......Over the last few decades there has been an increasing number of controlled-manipulative experiments to investigate how plants and soils might respond to global change. These experiments typically examined the effects of each of three global change drivers (i.e. nitrogen (N) deposition, warming...... of plants, soils and soil microbial biomass might respond to individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers. Our results show that (1) individual effects of N addition and elevated CO2 on C:N:P stoichiometry are stronger than warming, (2) combined effects of pairs of global change...

  14. European network for research in global change (ENRICH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghazi, A [European Commission, Bruxelles (Belgium). DG XII/JRC

    1996-12-31

    While approaching the beginning of the twenty first century, the scientific community is faced with the formidable tasks of monitoring and detecting, understanding and predicting changes in the Earth System and its interactions with human beings. A crucial challenge is to make scientific research results accessible and usable for those involved in the decision making process related to the concept of Sustainable Development. Major international scientific programmes under the umbrella of ICSU, such as the IGBP and WCRP, are dealing with these issues. Although there exist many well developed global change research programmes in several European countries and effective collaboration networks between research institutes, there is an urgent need for overall communication with a view to promoting wider international links ensuring complementarity, synergy and coherence. Recognizing the importance of promoting coherence in research and utilising research results for various European Union (EU) policies, the European Commissioner responsible for Science, Research and Development wrote in March 1992 to all the EU Research Ministers to propose an initiative in this domain. In a rapid response, a group of Senior Experts from the EU Member States was set up in April 1992. This Group established a Task Force to develop the concept of the European Network for Research In Global CHange (ENRICH) which was approved in July 1993

  15. European network for research in global change (ENRICH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghazi, A. [European Commission, Bruxelles (Belgium). DG XII/JRC

    1995-12-31

    While approaching the beginning of the twenty first century, the scientific community is faced with the formidable tasks of monitoring and detecting, understanding and predicting changes in the Earth System and its interactions with human beings. A crucial challenge is to make scientific research results accessible and usable for those involved in the decision making process related to the concept of Sustainable Development. Major international scientific programmes under the umbrella of ICSU, such as the IGBP and WCRP, are dealing with these issues. Although there exist many well developed global change research programmes in several European countries and effective collaboration networks between research institutes, there is an urgent need for overall communication with a view to promoting wider international links ensuring complementarity, synergy and coherence. Recognizing the importance of promoting coherence in research and utilising research results for various European Union (EU) policies, the European Commissioner responsible for Science, Research and Development wrote in March 1992 to all the EU Research Ministers to propose an initiative in this domain. In a rapid response, a group of Senior Experts from the EU Member States was set up in April 1992. This Group established a Task Force to develop the concept of the European Network for Research In Global CHange (ENRICH) which was approved in July 1993

  16. Competition, predation and species responses to environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Lin; Kulczychi, A. [Rutgers Univ., Cook College, Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, New Brunswick, NJ (United States)

    2004-08-01

    Despite much effort over the past decade on the ecological consequences of global warming, ecologists still have little understanding of the importance of interspecific interactions in species responses to environmental change. Models predict that predation should mitigate species responses to environmental change, and that interspecific competition should aggravate species responses to environmental change. To test this prediction, we studied how predation and competition affected the responses of two ciliates, Colpidiumstriatum and Parameciumtetraurelia, to temperature change in laboratory microcosms. We found that neither predation nor competition altered the responses of Colpidiumstratum to temperature change, and that competition but not predation altered the responses of Paramecium tetraurelia to temperature change. Asymmetric interactions and temperature-dependent interactions may have contributed to the disparity between model predictions and experimental results. Our results suggest that models ignoring inherent complexities in ecological communities may be inadequate in forecasting species responses to environmental change. (au)

  17. Decadal changes in global surface NO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Eskes, Henk; Sudo, Kengo; Boersma, Folkert; Bowman, Kevin; Kanaya, Yugo

    2017-01-01

    Global surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx ) over a 10-year period (2005-2014) are estimated from an assimilation of multiple satellite data sets: tropospheric NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME- 2), and

  18. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  19. What have we learned from global change manipulative experiments in China? A meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Zheng; Niu, Shuli; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

    2015-01-01

    Although China has the largest population in the world, a faster rate of warming than the global average, and an active global change research program, results from many of the global change experiments in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems have not been included in global syntheses. Here, we specifically analyze the observed responses of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in global change manipulative experiments in China, and compare these responses to those from other regions of the world. Most global change factors, vegetation types, and treatment methods that have been studied or used elsewhere in the world have also been studied and applied in China. The responses of terrestrial ecosystem C and N cycles to N addition and climate warming in China are similar in both direction and intensity to those reported in global syntheses. In Chinese ecosystems as elsewhere, N addition significantly increased aboveground (AGB) and belowground biomass (BGB), litter mass, dissolved organic C, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Warming stimulated AGB, BGB and the root-shoot ratio. Increasing precipitation accelerated GEP, NEP, microbial respiration, soil respiration, and ecosystem respiration. Our findings complement and support previous global syntheses and provide insight into regional responses to global change. PMID:26205333

  20. Adjusting to global change through clonal growth and epigenetic variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard S Dodd

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The earth is experiencing major changes in global and regional climates and changes are predicted to accelerate in the future. Many species will be under considerable pressure to evolve, to migrate, or be faced with extinction. Clonal plants would appear to be at a particular disadvantage due to their limited mobility and limited capacity for adaptation. However, they have outlived previous environmental shifts and clonal species have persisted for millenia. Clonal spread offers unique ecological advantages, such as resource sharing, risk sharing, and economies of scale among ramets within genotypes. We suggest that ecological attributes of clonal plants, in tandem with variation in gene regulation through epigenetic mechanisms that facilitate and optimize phenotype variation in response to environmental change may permit them to be well suited to projected conditions.

  1. Mentoring health researchers globally: Diverse experiences, programmes, challenges and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Donald C; Johnson, Nancy; Mejia, Raul; McCullough, Hazel; Turcotte-Tremblay, Anne-Marie; Barnoya, Joaquin; Falabella Luco, María Soledad

    2016-10-01

    Mentoring experiences and programmes are becoming increasingly recognised as important by those engaged in capacity strengthening in global health research. Using a primarily qualitative study design, we studied three experiences of mentorship and eight mentorship programmes for early career global health researchers based in high-income and low- and middle-income countries. For the latter, we drew upon programme materials, existing unpublished data and more formal mixed-method evaluations, supplemented by individual email questionnaire responses. Research team members wrote stories, and the team assembled and analysed them for key themes. Across the diverse experiences and programmes, key emergent themes included: great mentors inspire others in an inter-generational cascade, mentorship is transformative in personal and professional development and involves reciprocity, and finding the right balance in mentoring relationships and programmes includes responding creatively to failure. Among the challenges encountered were: struggling for more level playing fields for new health researchers globally, changing mindsets in institutions that do not have a culture of mentorship and building collaboration not competition. Mentoring networks spanning institutions and countries using multiple virtual and face-to-face methods are a potential avenue for fostering organisational cultures supporting quality mentorship in global health research.

  2. Culturally Responsive: Art Education in a Global Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Alice

    2012-01-01

    Facing the era of globalization, culturally responsive art teachers must recognize that students' home culture, including local artistic expression, is inevitably influenced by global forces. They should strive to engage with students systems and issues of globalization and its impact on their community culture and art. In this article, the author…

  3. Provider Behavior Under Global Budgeting and Policy Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Kai Chang MD, PhD

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Third-party payer systems are consistently associated with health care cost escalation. Taiwan’s single-payer, universal coverage National Health Insurance (NHI adopted global budgeting (GB to achieve cost control. This study captures ophthalmologists’ response to GB, specifically service volume changes and service substitution between low-revenue and high-revenue services following GB implementation, the subsequent Bureau of NHI policy response, and the policy impact. De-identified eye clinic claims data for the years 2000, 2005, and 2007 were analyzed to study the changes in Simple Claim Form (SCF claims versus Special Case Claims (SCCs. The 3 study years represent the pre-GB period, post-GB but prior to region-wise service cap implementation period, and the post-service cap period, respectively. Repeated measures multilevel regression analysis was used to study the changes adjusting for clinic characteristics and competition within each health care market. SCF service volume (low-revenue, fixed-price patient visits remained constant throughout the study period, but SCCs (covering services involving variable provider effort and resource use with flexibility for discretionary billing increased in 2005 with no further change in 2007. The latter is attributable to a 30% cap negotiated by the NHI Bureau with the ophthalmology association and enforced by the association. This study demonstrates that GB deployed with ongoing monitoring and timely policy responses that are designed in collaboration with professional stakeholders can contain costs in a health insurance–financed health care system.

  4. Long-term tree growth rate, water use efficiency, and tree ring nitrogen isotope composition of Pinus massoniana L. in response to global climate change and local nitrogen deposition in Southern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Fangfang [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou (China). South China Botanical Garden; Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Griffith Univ., Nathan, QLD (Australia). Environmental Future Centre; Kuang, Yuanwen; Wen, Dazhi [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou (China). South China Botanical Garden; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou (China). Pearl River Delta Research Centre of Environmental Pollution and Control; Xu, Zhihong [Griffith Univ., Nathan, QLD (Australia). Environmental Future Centre; Li, Jianli; Zuo, Weidong [Agriculture and Forestry Technology Extension Centre, Nanhai District, Guangdong (China); Hou, Enqing [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou (China). South China Botanical Garden; Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)

    2010-12-15

    We aimed to investigate long-term tree growth rates, water use efficiencies (WUE), and tree ring nitrogen (N) isotope compositions ({delta}{sup 15}N) of Masson pine (Pinus massoniana L.) in response to global climate change and local N deposition in Southern China. Tree annual growth rings of Masson pine were collected from four forest sites, viz. South China Botanical Garden (SBG), Xi Qiao Shan (XQS) Forest Park, Ding Hu Shan (DHS) Natural Reserve, and Nan Kun Shan (NKS) Natural Reserve in Southern China. The mean annual basal area increment (BAI), WUE, and {delta}{sup 15}N at every 5-year intervals of Masson pine during the last 50 years were determined. Regression analyses were used to quantify the relationships of BAI and WUE with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO{sub 2}]), temperature, rainfall, and tree ring elemental concentrations at the four study sites. Tree BAI showed a quadratic relationship with rising [CO{sub 2}]. The tipping points of [CO{sub 2}] for BAI, the peaks of BAI when the critical [CO{sub 2}] was reached, occurred earlier at the sites of SBG, XQS, and DHS which were exposed to higher temperature, N deposition, and lower mineral nutrient availability, as compared with the tipping points of [CO{sub 2}] for BAI at the site of NKS which had higher rainfall, lower temperature, and better nutritional status. The average tipping point of [CO{sub 2}] at the four sites for the BAI response curves was 356 ppm, after which, the BAI would be expected to decrease quadratically with rising [CO{sub 2}]. The multiple regressions of BAI confirmed the relationships of long-term tree growth rate with rainfall, tree WUE, and nutrients and {delta}{sup 15}N in tree rings. Nonlinear relationships between BAI and tree ring {delta}{sup 15}N at DHS and negatively linear one at NKS reflected the fertilization effect of N deposition on tree growth rate initially, but this effect peaked or became negative once the forest approached or passed the N saturation

  5. Comment 5 - agricultural response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruttan, V.W.

    1992-01-01

    The complex interrelationship between global climate change and agricultural production will become one of the most significant policy issues, in both developed and developing countries, in the first decades of the 21st century. Global and regional climate change will modify both agricultural production capacity and its location. And the intensity of agricultural production will contribute to environmental change at both the regional and global levels

  6. Problem free nuclear power and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Nuckolls, J.; Ishikawa, M.; Hyde, R.

    1997-01-01

    Nuclear fission power reactors represent a solution-in-principle to all aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth's atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high- grade heat for electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-driving around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates. However, a substantial number of major issues currently stand between nuclear power implemented with light- water reactors and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems, including long-term fuel supply, adverse public perceptions regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps more seriously - cost. We describe a GW-scale, high-temperature nuclear reactor heat source that can operate with no human intervention for a few decades and that may be widely acceptable, since its safety features are simple, inexpensive and easily understood. We provide first-level details of a reactor system designed to satisfy these requirements. Such a back-solving approach to realizing large-scale nuclear fission power systems potentially leads to an energy source capable of meeting all large-scale stationary demands for high- temperature heat. If widely employed to support such demands, it could, for example, directly reduce present-day world-wide CO 2 emissions by two-fold; by using it to produce non-carbonaceous fuels for small mobile demands, a second two-fold reduction could be attained. Even the first such reduction would permit continued slow power-demand growth in the First World and rapid development of the Third World, both without any governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage

  7. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  8. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

  9. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  10. Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Peter L.

    2009-01-01

    1980 anthropogenic sulfur emissions peaked and began to decrease because of major efforts especially in Japan, Europe, and the United States to reduce acid rain. Atmospheric concentrations of methane began decreasing in 1990 and have remained nearly constant since 2000, demonstrating an increase in oxidizing capacity. Global temperatures became roughly constant around 2000 and even decreased beginning in late 2007. Meanwhile atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have continued to increase at the same rate that they have increased since 1970. Thus SO 2 is playing a far more active role in initiating and controlling global warming than recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Massive reduction of SO 2 should be a top priority in order to reduce both global warming and acid rain. But man is also adding two to three orders of magnitude more CO 2 per year to the climate than one 'large' volcanic eruption added in the past. Thus CO 2 , a greenhouse gas, is contributing to global warming and should be reduced. We have already significantly reduced SO 2 emissions in order to reduce acid rain. We know how to do it both technically and politically. In the past, sudden climate change was typically triggered by sudden increases in volcanic activity. Slow increases in greenhouse gases, therefore, do not appear as likely as currently thought to trigger tipping points where the climate suddenly changes. However we do need to start planning an appropriate human response to future major increases in volcanic activity.

  11. Globalization, financial capitalism, and corporate social responsibility: Structural tensions

    OpenAIRE

    David Barbosa Ramírez; Christian Medina López; Myriam Vargas López

    2014-01-01

    Globalization and financial capitalism keep a synergy in a global context whose problems such as environmental degradation, social inequity, economic crises and corruption are intensified. Corporate Social Responsibility emerges as a mechanism that seeks to mitigate some of these problems, although its effectiveness and impact today are challenged. The system which globalization, financial capitalism and social responsibility are a part of, is currently facing a number of structural tensions ...

  12. Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, S.K.

    1992-01-01

    This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

  13. Data management and global change research: Technology and infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrissey, W.A.

    1993-01-01

    There is a consensus among many scientists who would perform global change research that global-scale scientific data management programs and enabling policies need to be developed and implemented concomitantly with, if not in advance of, global change research programs. They are hopeful that US Federal government policies for scientific and technical data and information management will provide timely archival, analysis, and dissemination of global change research data and will enable them to share that data with colleagues, internationally. Federal data managers believe that data management technology and infrastructure requirements for global change research programs can be met through existing or planned enhancements to systems in operation used for scientific data gathering, processing, and dissemination. Scientists are concerned, however, that because of the scope and diversity of global change research programs entirely new systems and approaches to data management may need to be devised

  14. The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources: Global And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GHGs) is increasing and this has resulted to changing global climate with increasing temperature. The rise in global average temperatures since 1860 now exceeds 0.6OC. The effect of the GHGs concentration on global warming as at 2100 is ...

  15. Observational evidence of changes in global snow and ice cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barry, R.G.

    1990-01-01

    Sources of observational data on recent variations in the seasonal extent of snow cover and sea ice, of the terminal position and volume of alpine glaciers, and of ground temperature profiles in areas of permafrost are briefly reviewed. Recent evidence of changes in these variables is then examined. The extent of seasonal snow cover in the Northern hemisphere and of sea ice in both hemispheres has fluctuated irregularly over the last 15-20 years with a range of about 10-15% in each case. There is no clear evidence of any recent trends, despite general global warming. In contrast, most glaciers retreated and thinned from before the turn of the century until the 1960s and alaskan permafrost temperatures have risen 2-4 C per century. Recently, glacier advances have been noted, perhaps in response to increased accumulation. Problems of linking climate forcing and snow/ice responses are discussed

  16. Global Analysis of Ecosystem Evapotranspiration Response to Precipitation Deficits

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Bin; Wang, Haiyan; Guo, Lanlan; Liu, Junjie

    2017-12-01

    Changes in ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) due to precipitation deficits (PD) can relieve or aggravate soil moisture shortages, thus impacting drought severity. Previous findings have conflicted with regard to response of ET to PD. The present study relies on a global land ET synthesis data set (ETsyn) and observations from eddy-covariance towers (ETobs) to thoroughly examine the sensitivity of ET to PD, which is represented by the standardized precipitation index. There was a contrast in the response to PD between arid and humid ecosystems. ETsyn of arid ecosystems was typically reduced promptly in response to a reduction of precipitation, while ETsyn in humid ecosystems experienced a two-staged change: First, there was an enhancement, and then a reduction associated with persisting PD. Compared with ETsyn, ETobs suggests the occurrence of a more significant ET transition in response to PD. In arid ecosystems, ET typically negatively correlated with low PD, but this was limited by a large PD. Findings from this study are crucial for understanding the role of ET in drought evolution.

  17. Combining observations and models to reduce uncertainty in the cloud response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, J. R.; Myers, T.; Chellappan, S.

    2017-12-01

    Currently there is large uncertainty on how subtropical low-level clouds will respond to global warming and whether they will act as a positive feedback or negative feedback. Global climate models substantially agree on what changes in atmospheric structure and circulation will occur with global warming but greatly disagree over how clouds will respond to these changes in structure and circulation. An examination of models with the most realistic simulations of low-level cloudiness indicates that the model cloud response to atmospheric changes associated with global warming is quantitatively similar to the model cloud response to atmospheric changes at interannual time scales. For these models, the cloud response to global warming predicted by multilinear regression using coefficients derived from interannual time scales is quantitatively similar to the cloud response to global warming directly simulated by the model. Since there is a large spread among cloud response coefficients even among models with the most realistic cloud simulations, substitution of coefficients derived from satellite observations reduces the uncertainty range of the low-level cloud feedback. Increased sea surface temperature associated with global warming acts to reduce low-level cloudiness, which is partially offset by increased lower tropospheric stratification that acts to enhance low-level cloudiness. Changes in free-tropospheric relative humidity, subsidence, and horizontal advection have only a small impact on low-level cloud. The net reduction in subtropical low-level cloudiness increases absorption of solar radiation by the climate system, thus resulting in a weak positive feedback.

  18. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  19. Outcome and value uncertainties in global-change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammitt, J.K.

    1995-01-01

    Choices among environmental policies can be informed by analysis of the potential physical, biological, and social outcomes of alternative choices, and analysis of social preferences among these outcomes. Frequently, however, the consequences of alternative policies cannot be accurately predicted because of substantial outcome uncertainties concerning physical, chemical, biological, and social processes linking policy choices to consequences. Similarly, assessments of social preferences among alternative outcomes are limited by value uncertainties arising from limitations of moral principles, the absence of economic markets for many environmental attributes, and other factors. Outcome and value uncertainties relevant to global-change policy are described and their magnitudes are examined for two cases: stratospheric-ozone depletion and global climate change. Analysis of information available in the mid 1980s, when international ozone regulations were adopted, suggests that contemporary uncertainties surrounding CFC emissions and the atmospheric response were so large that plausible ozone depletion, absent regulation, ranged from negligible to catastrophic, a range that exceeded the plausible effect of the regulations considered. Analysis of climate change suggests that, important as outcome uncertainties are, uncertainties about values may be even more important for policy choice. 53 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  20. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  1. Ecohydrological responses of a model semiarid system to precipitation pulses after a global change type dry-down depend on growth-form, event size, and time since establishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Minor, R. L.; Braun, Z.; Potts, D. L.

    2012-12-01

    C). Both growth forms were similarly responsive to episodic rainfall, regardless of event magnitude, though mesquite were able to maintain photosynthetic function for a longer period in response to each rain. However, in the second year of the experiment a new pattern of response to moisture and high temperature stress emerged. Under dry conditions, mesquite sustained high photosynthetic rates across a wider range of atmospheric temperatures and were less responsive to rainfall, regardless of event magnitude. In contrast, the limiting effect of high temperatures on bunchgrass photosynthesis was soil moisture dependent. In this case, the effects of high temperature limitation were exaggerated under dry conditions and relaxed when soil moisture was more abundant. Together, these trends yielded a significantly greater photosynthetic assimilation by deeper-rooted mesquite shrubs than shallow-rooted bunchgrasses under both temperature regimes. Combining these aboveground measurements of carbon uptake with belowground estimates of carbon efflux will allow us to make much more informed projections of net carbon balance within mixed vegetation shrublands across a range of global climate change projections.

  2. Interfacing a one-dimensional lake model with a single-column atmospheric model: 2. Thermal response of the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland under a 2 × CO2 global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perroud, Marjorie; Goyette, StéPhane

    2012-06-01

    In the companion to the present paper, the one-dimensional k-ɛ lake model SIMSTRAT is coupled to a single-column atmospheric model, nicknamed FIZC, and an application of the coupled model to the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland, is described. In this paper, the response of Lake Geneva to global warming caused by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (i.e., 2 × CO2) is investigated. Coupling the models allowed for feedbacks between the lake surface and the atmosphere and produced changes in atmospheric moisture and cloud cover that further modified the downward radiation fluxes. The time evolution of atmospheric variables as well as those of the lake's thermal profile could be reproduced realistically by devising a set of adjustable parameters. In a "control" 1 × CO2 climate experiment, the coupled FIZC-SIMSTRAT model demonstrated genuine skills in reproducing epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temperatures, with annual mean errors and standard deviations of 0.25°C ± 0.25°C and 0.3°C ± 0.15°C, respectively. Doubling the CO2 concentration induced an atmospheric warming that impacted the lake's thermal structure, increasing the stability of the water column and extending the stratified period by 3 weeks. Epilimnetic temperatures were seen to increase by 2.6°C to 4.2°C, while hypolimnion temperatures increased by 2.2°C. Climate change modified components of the surface energy budget through changes mainly in air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover. During summer, reduced cloud cover resulted in an increase in the annual net solar radiation budget. A larger water vapor deficit at the air-water interface induced a cooling effect in the lake.

  3. Impact of three global change drivers on a Mediterranean shrub.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matesanz, Silvia; Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

    2009-09-01

    Global change is not restricted to climate change, and plant species generally face multiple human-driven disturbances constraining their viability. Most importantly, interactions among these drivers frequently generate nonadditive effects that cannot be predicted based on single-factor studies. Our goal was to assess the joint effects of three global change drivers that are especially relevant in Mediterranean ecosystems, namely, fragmentation, reduced habitat quality, and climate change on Centaurea hyssopifolia, a gypsum specialist plant. We carried out a two-year study (2005-2006) in natural populations of this plant in large (>11 ha) and small (< 1.5 ha) fragments. Within each fragment, we identified areas of contrasting habitat quality as revealed by plant cover and nutrient content, and within each combination of habitat quality and fragment size we performed a rainfall manipulation experiment simulating the most likely future climate scenario for the region. Survival, growth, phenology, and reproductive success of selected plants were monitored. The three drivers profoundly affected responses of Centaurea hyssopifolia in both study years, phenology being mainly affected by changes in habitat quality and reductions in rainfall and reproductive traits being mainly affected by fragmentation. Plants in sites of poor habitat quality and plants in the dry treatment advanced most of their phenophases (flowering and dispersing earlier) and showed reduced growth rate and increased fraction of senescent leaves. Plants growing in small fragments had lower survival, lower number of viable seeds, and a reduced seed set compared to those from large fragments. We found significant synergistic interactions among drivers. For example, the interaction between fragmentation and habitat quality led to lower survival and lower relative growth in plants from small and poor-quality habitat sites. Our results highlight the importance of studies addressing simultaneously all

  4. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget Crosscut

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President — U.S. Global Change Research Program budget authority for Agency activities in which the primary focus is on:Observations, research, and analysis of climate change...

  5. Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Cinner, Joshua E; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Loring, Philip A; Jennings, Simon; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Fisk, Aaron T; McClanahan, Tim R

    2010-11-27

    Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.

  6. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)

    1992-05-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

  7. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  8. Global Stories of People Working for Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragman, June; Szasz, Michael

    Developed by a Canadian volunteer organization, this textbook for high school and adult English-as-a-Second-Language (ESL) and literacy students explores current international events and social issues using both personal and global perspectives. It includes personal stories of people's lives, discussions of social and political issues in a wider…

  9. Global biodiversity, stoichiometry and ecosystem function responses to human-induced C-N-P imbalances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carnicer, Jofre; Sardans, Jordi; Stefanescu, Constanti; Ubach, Andreu; Bartrons, Mireia; Asensio, Dolores; Penuelas, Josep

    2015-01-01

    Global change analyses usually consider biodiversity as a global asset that needs to be preserved. Biodiversity is frequently analysed mainly as a response variable affected by diverse environmental drivers. However, recent studies highlight that gradients of biodiversity are associated with gradual

  10. The policy relevance of global environmental change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yarnal, Brent

    1996-01-01

    Many scientists are striving to identify and promote the policy implications of their global change research. Much basic research on global environmental change cannot advance policy directly, but new projects can determine the relevance of their research to decision makers and build policy-relevant products into the work. Similarly, many ongoing projects can alter or add to the present science design to make the research policy relevant. Thus, this paper shows scientists working on global change how to make their research policy relevant. It demonstrates how research on physical global change relates to human dimensions studies and integrated assessments. It also presents an example of how policy relevance can be fit retroactively into a global change project (in this case, SRBEX-the Susquehanna River Basin Experiment) and how that addition can enhance the project's status and science. The paper concludes that policy relevance is desirable from social and scientific perspectives

  11. Corporate Social Responsibility in Global Value Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund-Thomsen, Peter; Lindgreen, Adam

    2014-01-01

    We outline the drivers, main features, and conceptual underpinnings of the compliance paradigm. We then use a similar structure to investigate the drivers, main features, and conceptual underpinnings of the cooperative paradigm for working with CSR in global value chains. We argue that the measur...... paradigm, we summarize our findings, and we outline avenues for research: purchasing practices and labor standard noncompliance, CSR capacity building among local suppliers, and improved CSR monitoring by local resources in the developing world....

  12. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  13. Global Financial Crisis – Policy Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dakić Milojica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Six years after the outbreak of the financial crisis that had shaken the global financial system, experts and analysts all over the world continue discussing the effectiveness, scope and adequacy of mechanisms and measures implemented in the meantime, as well as the adequacy of the underlying theoretical concept. A global consent has been reached on ensuring financial stability through the interaction of monetary, fiscal and prudential policy to ensure the necessary macroprudential dimension of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. The USA crisis spilled over to Europe. Strong support of governments to bail out banks quickly resulted in sovereign debt crises in some peripheral EU Member States. Fiscal insolvency of these countries strongly shook the EU and increased doubts in the monetary union survival. The European Union stood united to defend the euro and responded strongly with a new complex and comprehensive financial stability framework. This supranational framework is a counterpart to the global financial stability framework created by the G20 member countries. Starting from the specific features of the monetary policy whose capacities are determined by euroisation, available instruments and resources for preventive supervisory activities, as well as the role of the government in crisis management, Montenegro created a framework for maintaining financial stability and prescribed fostering and maintaining financial stability as the main objective of the Central Bank of Montenegro.

  14. Climate change and our responsibilities as chemists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bassam Z. Shakhashiri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available For almost all of 4.5 billion years, natural forces have shaped Earth’s environment. But, during the past century, as a result of the Industrial Revolution, which has had enormous benefits for humans, the effects of human activities have become the main driver for climate change. The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by burning fossil fuels for energy to power the revolution causes an energy imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing planetary emission. The imbalance is warming the planet and causing the atmosphere and oceans to warm, ice to melt, sea level to rise, and weather extremes to increase. In addition, dissolution of part of the carbon dioxide in the oceans is causing them to acidify, with possible negative effects on marine biota. As citizens of an interconnected global society and scientists who have the background to understand climate change, we have a responsibility first to understand the science. One resource that is available to help is the American Chemical Society Climate Science Toolkit, www.acs.org/climatescience. With this understanding our further responsibility as citizen scientists is to engage others in deliberative discussions on the science, to take actions ourselves to adapt to and mitigate human-caused climate change, and urge others to follow our example.

  15. Global Climate Change as Perceived by Elementary School Teachers in YOGYAKARTA , Indigenous Psychology Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Arini, Aquilina Tanti; Ghazali, Ratna Juwita; Satiti, Arti; Mintarsih, Mintarsih; Yuniarti, Kwartarini W

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to describe how the global climate change was perceived by teachers of elementary schools. The subjects were 111 teachers from 7 elementary schools in Yogyakarta City and Sleman district. The data were collected using open-ended questions (including perception about the weather, feeling evoked by global warming words and free responses related to global warming issues). The data were analyzed using the technique of qualitative and quantitative content analysis with Indigenous...

  16. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  17. Global Sectoral Industry Approaches to Climate Change. The Way Forward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stigson, B.; Egenhofer, C.; Fujiwara, N.

    2008-01-01

    The structure of some industrial sectors is so highly concentrated that just a handful of companies are responsible for producing a significant share of that sector's total greenhouse gases emissions worldwide. These sectors are thus a 'natural' focus of policy-makers concerned with climate change and have attracted keen interest from the EU. So-called 'sectoral approaches' are seen as having the potential to broaden the range of contributions by all parties, including emerging economies, to greenhouse gas emissions reductions, and to help moderate competitiveness concerns in trade-exposed industries. In particular, such approaches may help to quantify emissions on a sector-by-sector basis, building confidence that policies and measures can be put in place to reduce emissions. They can also help identify national or global commitments through the aggregation of sectoral data. While sectoral approaches allow policy-makers to concentrate on those individual sectors that contribute significantly to global emissions, they also pose a number of challenges. This CEPS Task Force Report identifies the principal issues associated with sectoral approaches - their rationale and the associated political dynamics - and gives an overview of existing approaches, the formulation of preconditions that would allow sectoral approaches to be implemented and an analysis of the potential interaction of sectoral approaches with existing climate change policies. The concluding chapter sketches a possible way forward

  18. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  19. Oceans, microbes, and global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Danovaro, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine life and on microbial components. Prokaryotes (Bacteria and Archaea), viruses and other microbial life forms are impacted by ...

  20. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verburg, Peter H [Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Ellis, Erle C [Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250 (United States); Letourneau, Aurelien, E-mail: Peter.Verburg@ivm.vu.nl [UMR 5175 Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5 (France)

    2011-07-15

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  1. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

    2011-07-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  2. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verburg, Peter H; Ellis, Erle C; Letourneau, Aurelien

    2011-01-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  3. Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conci, Markus; Müller, Hermann J

    2014-01-01

    Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed - a phenomenon referred to as "change blindness." This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical) layouts or as global-incongruent (random) arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts). Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of "global precedence" in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.

  4. Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus eConci

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed – a phenomenon referred to as ‘change blindness’. This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical layouts or as global-incongruent (random arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts. Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of global precedence in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.

  5. Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

  6. IMPLICATIONS OF SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY DISCLOSURE ON GLOBAL PRODUCTION NETWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Le Bo; Dan Shen; Jin Jun Bo

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to discuss effectiveness of social responsibility disclosure in promoting global production network. Through a critical review on the theoretical development from supply chain to global production network, the global supply chain management of Apple Inc., as a case, is investigated, with focus on corporate and NGOs’ social disclosure on the environmental and labor rights' issues of its suppliers in China. The paper concludes that effectiveness of corporate social disclosure on...

  7. Marine viruses and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danovaro, R.; Corinaldesi, C.; Dell'Anno, A.; Fuhrman, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Noble, R.T.; Suttle, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface

  8. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pumphrey, Carolyn

    2008-01-01

    .... But this notion was generally scoffed at. Over the course of the 20th century, the scientific community gradually came to terms with this theory and began to regard climate change even rapid climate change as more than a distant possibility...

  9. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    it cost to treat asthma in children and other health problems caused by the dirt we were putting out of the smokestacks. It was passed by the...in Latin America for a number of years. General Clark used to say, “In SOUTHCOM, take no credit and expect none.” And I think that was a good rule...damage the health of our children .35 People also need to better understand the implications of globalization. Not all currently appreciate how our

  10. Global Precipitation Responses to Land Hydrological Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, M.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2012-12-01

    Several studies have established that soil moisture increases after adding a groundwater component in land surface models due to the additional supply of subsurface water. However, impacts of groundwater on the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation have received little attention. Through the coupled groundwater-land-atmosphere model (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model + Community Land Model) simulations, this study explores how groundwater representation in the model alters the precipitation spatiotemporal distributions. Results indicate that the effect of groundwater on the amount of precipitation is not globally homogeneous. Lower tropospheric water vapor increases due to the presence of groundwater in the model. The increased water vapor destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances the vertical upward velocity and precipitation in tropical convective regions. Precipitation, therefore, is inhibited in the descending branch of convection. As a result, an asymmetric dipole is produced over tropical land regions along the equator during the summer. This is analogous to the "rich-get-richer" mechanism proposed by previous studies. Moreover, groundwater also increased short-term (seasonal) and long-term (interannual) memory of precipitation for some regions with suitable groundwater table depth and found to be a function of water table depth. Based on the spatial distributions of the one-month-lag autocorrelation coefficients as well as Hurst coefficients, air-land interaction can occur from short (several months) to long (several years) time scales. This study indicates the importance of land hydrological processes in the climate system and the necessity of including the subsurface processes in the global climate models.

  11. Trump's Doctrine and Climate Change: New Challenges for Global Governance

    OpenAIRE

    Contipelli, Ernani

    2017-01-01

    The present communication aims to discuss the main topics related to Trump’s Doctrine and its effects on the implementation of global governance to fight against Climate Change. To present the argument, first, we will analyze the relation between global governance and climate change, followed by a general view of the climate change by some Republican Party members, and finally, the current policies already put in place by President Trump

  12. Global chromatin fibre compaction in response to DNA damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, Charlotte; Hayward, Richard L.; Gilbert, Nick

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: ► Robust KAP1 phosphorylation in response to DNA damage in HCT116 cells. ► DNA repair foci are found in soluble chromatin. ► Biophysical analysis reveals global chromatin fibre compaction after DNA damage. ► DNA damage is accompanied by rapid linker histone dephosphorylation. -- Abstract: DNA is protected by packaging it into higher order chromatin fibres, but this can impede nuclear processes like DNA repair. Despite considerable research into the factors required for signalling and repairing DNA damage, it is unclear if there are concomitant changes in global chromatin fibre structure. In human cells DNA double strand break (DSB) formation triggers a signalling cascade resulting in H2AX phosphorylation (γH2AX), the rapid recruitment of chromatin associated proteins and the subsequent repair of damaged sites. KAP1 is a transcriptional corepressor and in HCT116 cells we found that after DSB formation by chemicals or ionising radiation there was a wave of, predominantly ATM dependent, KAP1 phosphorylation. Both KAP1 and phosphorylated KAP1 were readily extracted from cells indicating they do not have a structural role and γH2AX was extracted in soluble chromatin indicating that sites of damage are not attached to an underlying structural matrix. After DSB formation we did not find a concomitant change in the sensitivity of chromatin fibres to micrococcal nuclease digestion. Therefore to directly investigate higher order chromatin fibre structures we used a biophysical sedimentation technique based on sucrose gradient centrifugation to compare the conformation of chromatin fibres isolated from cells before and after DNA DSB formation. After damage we found global chromatin fibre compaction, accompanied by rapid linker histone dephosphorylation, consistent with fibres being more regularly folded or fibre deformation being stabilized by linker histones. We suggest that following DSB formation, although there is localised chromatin unfolding to

  13. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  14. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Parker, Larry; Blodgett, John

    2008-01-01

    The 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change requires that signatories, including the United States, establish policies for constraining future emission levels of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2). The George H. W...

  15. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels......, are influencing the climate in ways that threaten the well-being and continued development of human society. If humanity is to learn from history and to limit these threats, the time has come for stronger control of the human activities that are changing the fundamental conditions for life on Earth. To decide...... on effective control measures, an understanding of how human activities are changing the climate, and of the implications of unchecked climate change, needs to be widespread among world and national leaders, as well as in the public. The purpose of this report is to provide, for a broad range of audiences...

  16. Globalization, structural change, and productivity growth:

    OpenAIRE

    McMillan, Margaret; Rodrik, Dani

    2012-01-01

    Large gaps in labor productivity between the traditional and modern parts of the economy are a fundamental reality of developing societies. In this paper, we document these gaps and emphasize that labor flows from low-productivity activities to high-productivity activities are a key driver of development. Our results show that since 1990 structural change has been growth-reducing in both Africa and Latin America, with the most striking changes taking place in Latin America. The bulk of the di...

  17. Challenges to professionalism: Social accountability and global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, David; Walpole, Sarah; Barna, Stefi

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the concept of professionalism as it relates to social change and social accountability, and expands on them in the light of global environmental changes. Professionalism in medicine includes concepts of altruism, service, professional knowledge, self-regulation and autonomy. Current dialogues around social accountability suggest that medical schools should re-orientate their strategy and desired education, research and service outcomes to the health needs of the communities they serve.This article addresses the following questions: • How do we reconcile ideas of medical professionalism with the demands of creating a more equal, just, sustainable and socially inclusive society? • What new challenges do or will we face in relation to environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, ecosystem health and climate change? • How can medical schools best teach social and environmental responsiveness within a framework of professionalism? • How do medical schools ensure that tomorrow's doctors possess the knowledge, skills and attitude to adapt to the challenges they will face in future roles?We offer ideas about why and how medical educators can change, recommendations to strengthen the teaching of professionalism and social accountability and suggestions about the contribution of an emerging concept, that of "environmental accountability".

  18. Influence of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin

    2017-01-01

    The interactive effects of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon (C) storage remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesise data from 633 published studies to show how the interactive effects of multiple drivers are generally additive (i.e. not differing from the sum of their indivi......The interactive effects of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon (C) storage remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesise data from 633 published studies to show how the interactive effects of multiple drivers are generally additive (i.e. not differing from the sum...... additive effects of multiple global change drivers into future assessments of the C storage ability of terrestrial ecosystems....

  19. Global environmental change and sustainable development in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, J.; Liberatore, A.; Grundlach, K. [eds.

    1995-12-31

    The document contains all but two papers presented at the Workshop as well as a summary of the contributions and discussions, a list of socio-economic research priorities identified at the meeting and a policy brief based on the themes woven together at the Workshop. The workshop was organised within the framework of the European Network for Research in Global Change (ENRICH). Papers include: global environmental change and sustainable development in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin, water management and global environmental change policies, human impacts on the nitrogen cycle, the merchandising of biodiversity, environmental performance indicators, urban sustainability indicators and strategies for sustainability.

  20. The Changing Face of Global Food Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lester R.; Eckholm, Erik P.

    1974-01-01

    The causes of the world's food shortage are enumerated and explained. Possible solutions to the shortage are described with emphasis placed upon the moral decision of the affluent countries to take more responsibility in decreasing their consumption of food and energy. (DE)

  1. Ethical Challenges Facing Greenland in the Present Era of Globalization: Towards Global Responsibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Dahl Rendtorff

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the developments of ethics and politics in the Arctic region have again become an issue for international discussion. One main issue is the problem of climate change and sustainability of the Arctic region. This problem is linked to the issue of exploitation of natural resources in the Arctic region, not at least in Greenland. Indeed, the general issue is how we should define ethics of the environment and sustainability as a general principle for the Arctic region. It is important to discuss what is at stake and how we define the problem in relation to the different participating stakeholders. This paper deals with these problems as a case for global ethics and it proposes a vision of ethical and political responsibility for sustainable development in order to deal with such problems.

  2. Globalization, financial capitalism, and corporate social responsibility: Structural tensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Barbosa Ramírez

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and financial capitalism keep a synergy in a global context whose problems such as environmental degradation, social inequity, economic crises and corruption are intensified. Corporate Social Responsibility emerges as a mechanism that seeks to mitigate some of these problems, although its effectiveness and impact today are challenged. The system which globalization, financial capitalism and social responsibility are a part of, is currently facing a number of structural tensions that contribute to the analysis, understanding and solving of the mentioned problems. This paper identifies and analyzes four of the aforementioned structural tensions.

  3. Climate change at global and regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

    2008-01-01

    In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

  4. Global DNA methylation responses to low dose radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, M.R.; Ormsby, R.J.; Blyth, B.J.; Sykes, P.J.; Bezak, E.

    2011-01-01

    Full text: High radiation doses cause breaks in the DNA which are considered the critical lesions in initiation of radiation-induced cancer. However, at very low radiation doses relevant for the general public, the induction of such breaks will be rare, and other changes to the DNA such as DNA methylation which affects gene expression may playa role in radiation responses. We are studying global DNA methylation after low dose radiation exposure to determine if low dose radiation has short- and/or long-term effects on chromatin structure. We developed a sensitive high resolution melt assay to measure the levels of DNA methylation across the mouse genome by analysing a stretch of DNA sequence within Long Interspersed Nuclear Elements-I (LINE I) that comprise a very large proportion of the mouse and human genomes. Our initial results suggest no significant short-term or longterm) changes in global NA methylation after low dose whole-body X-radiation of 10 J1Gyor 10 mGy, with a significant transient increase in NA methylation observed I day after a high dose of I Gy. If the low radiation doses tested are inducing changes in bal DNA methylation, these would appear to be smaller than the variation observed between the sexes and following the general stress of the sham-irradiation procedure itself. This research was funded by the Low Dose Radiation Research Program, Biological and Environmental Research, US DOE, Grant DE-FG02-05ER64104 and MN is the recipient of the FMCF/BHP Dose Radiation Research Scholarship.

  5. Global demographic change and climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  6. Technological Change, Globalization, and the Community College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Richard M.; Dellow, Donald A.

    2009-01-01

    In early nineteenth-century England, workers now known as Luddites roamed the countryside destroying machinery that they saw as creating unemployment and upsetting their traditional way of life. They believed that the growing mechanization of production, what people would now call technological change, and the expanding volume of trade ushered in…

  7. Monitoring biodiversity change through effective global coordination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Navarro, Laetitia M.; Fernandez, Nestor; Guerra, Carlos; Guralnick, Rob; Kissling, W. Daniel; Londono, Maria Cecilia; Muller-Karger, Frank; Turak, Eren; El Serafy, G.Y.H.; Balvanera, Patricia; Authors, More

    2017-01-01

    The ability to monitor changes in biodiversity, and their societal impact, is critical to conserving species and managing ecosystems. While emerging technologies increase the breadth and reach of data acquisition, monitoring efforts are still spatially and temporally fragmented, and taxonomically

  8. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  9. Global Ocean Sedimentation Patterns: Plate Tectonic History Versus Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, A.; Reynolds, E.; Olson, P.; Hinnov, L. A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global sediment data (Whittaker et al., 2013) and carbonate content data (Archer, 1996) allows examination of ocean sedimentation evolution with respect to age of the underlying ocean crust (Müller et al., 2008). From these data, we construct time series of ocean sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean basins for the past 120 Ma. These time series are unique to each basin and reflect an integrated response to plate tectonics and climate change. The goal is to parameterize ocean sedimentation tied to crustal age for paleoclimate studies. For each basin, total sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate from 0.1 x 0.1 degree cells are binned according to basement crustal age; area-corrected moments (mean, variance, etc.) are calculated for each bin. Segmented linear fits identify trends in present-day carbonate deposition rates and changes in ocean sedimentation from 0 to 120 Ma. In the North and South Atlantic and Indian oceans, mean sediment thickness versus crustal age is well represented by three linear segments, with the slope of each segment increasing with increasing crustal age. However, the transition age between linear segments varies among the three basins. In contrast, mean sediment thickness in the North and South Pacific oceans are numerically smaller and well represented by two linear segments with slopes that decrease with increasing crustal age. These opposing trends are more consistent with the plate tectonic history of each basin being the controlling factor in sedimentation rates, rather than climate change. Unlike total sediment thickness, carbonate deposition rates decrease smoothly with crustal age in all basins, with the primary controls being ocean chemistry and water column depth.References: Archer, D., 1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 159-174.Müller, R.D., et al., 2008, Science, 319, 1357-1362.Whittaker, J., et al., 2013, Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst. DOI: 10.1002/ggge.20181

  10. Romanian Campaigns on Corporate Social Responsibility – Signs of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Patrut

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Organizations play an important role in the development of the modern society since managers have become aware that financial profit highly depends on community involvement. The active participation of organizations in community life implies to adapt global strategies to local issues or to promote local issues at a global level. Actually this is the essence of glocalization. The means by which organizations can achieve these glocal objectives is CSR campaigns.  CSR represents an instrument used to solve diverse issues, such as: human rights, environment and climate change, education, support for vulnerable groups, sustainable development, or establishment of moral capitalism. Within the context of the ever-rising internet access of all audiences, CSR campaigns have become more visible and have capitalized on the advantages of collective intelligence, internet users’ participation and their user generated contents. The purpose of our study is to provide an insight into (1 the prominence of Romanian organizations which are the most socially responsible, (2 the domains in which Romanian organizations have invested; (3 the salience of CSR 1.0 and CSR 2.0 tools used in the promotion of CSR campaigns in Romania. 

  11. Responsibility without Guilt: A Youngian Approach to Responsibility for Global Injustice

    OpenAIRE

    McKeown, M. C.

    2015-01-01

    What responsibilities do individuals have in relation to global injustice? Iris Young argues that all agents “connected” to global structural injustice bear political responsibility, rather than moral responsibility; the difference being that political responsibility is non-blameworthy, shared and forward-looking, whereas moral responsibility entails blameworthiness, isolates particular agents for censure and is backward-looking. Thus, individuals are not guilty of wrongdoing but they bear re...

  12. Global Change and the Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollack, Henry N.

    2004-08-01

    The Earth system in recent years has come to mean the complex interactions of the atmosphere, biosphere, lithosphere and hydrosphere, through an intricate network of feedback loops. This system has operated over geologic time, driven principally by processes with long time scales. Over the lifetime of the solar system, the Sun has slowly become more radiant, and the geography of continents and oceans basins has evolved via plate tectonics. This geography has placed a first-order constraint on the circulation of ocean waters, and thus has strongly influenced regional and global climate. At shorter time scales, the Earth system has been influenced by Milankovitch orbital factors and occasional exogenous events such as bolide impacts. Under these influences the system chugged along for eons, until some few hundred thousand years ago, when one remarkable species evolved: Homo sapiens. As individuals, humans are of course insignificant in shaping the Earth system, but collectively the six billion human occupants of the planet now rival ``natural'' processes in modifying the Earth system. This profound human influence underlies the dubbing of the present epoch of geologic history as the ``Anthropocene.''

  13. Global climate change impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

  14. Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröter, D.; Cramer, W.; Leemans, R.; Prentice, I.C.; Araujo, M.B.; Arnell, N.W.; Bondeau, A.; Brugmann, H.; Carter, T.R.; Gracia, C.A.; Vega-Leinert, de la A.C.; Erhard, M.; Ewert, F.; Glendining, M.; House, J.I.; Kankaanpää, S.; Klein, R.J.T.; Lavorel, S.; Lindner, M.; Metzger, M.J.; Meyer, J.; Mitchell, T.; Reginster, I.; Rounsevell, M.; Sabate, S.; Stich, S.; Smith, B.; Smith, J.; Smith, P.; Sykes, M.T.; Thonicke, K.; Thuiller, W.; Tuck, G.; Zaehle, S.; Zierl, B.

    2005-01-01

    Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in

  15. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    of this dissertation has been to determine how soil food web structure and function is affected when the quantity and quality of plant input is altered under global change. By studying the abundance and composition of soil organisms, particularly those in the rhizosphere, closely associated with living plants, we...... (Paper III). Furthermore, by way of meta-analysis, the role of organisms in global change effects on ecosystem function is modelled (Paper IV). Among CO2, warming and summer drought, CO2 is the factor most consistently impacting soil organisms. CO2 increases abundance of microorganisms and nematodes...... suggest that not only the global change effects on established ecosystems, but also the global change effects on plant community composition as well as land use management may determine the composition and function of soil food webs in the future....

  16. Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2017-05-09

    May 9, 2017 ... Ideas from the global climate change hotspot research ... The Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) ... the decisions they need to make about investment choices and development options, ...

  17. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  18. Distribution of climatic changes during global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinnikov, K Ya; Kovyneva, N P

    1983-05-01

    Empirical evaluations of the influence of small (scale +/- 0.5/sup 0/C) changes in mean annual air surface temperature in the northern hemisphere on the fields of the mean values of the principal meteorological elements (temperature, pressure, precipitation) are discussed. The archives of climatic data for the last 100 years were subjected to statistical processing. The method is described in detail. 14 references, 5 figures.

  19. Global approach of emergency response, reflection analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velasco Garcia, E.; Garcia Ahumada, F.; Albaladejo Vidal, S.

    1998-01-01

    The emergency response management approach must be dealt with adequately within company strategy, since a badly managed emergency situation can adversely affect a company, not only in terms of asset, but also in terms of the negative impact on its credibility, profitability and image. Thereby, it can be said that there are three main supports to manage the response in an emergency situation. a) Diagnosis b) Prognosis. c) Communications. To reach these capabilities it is necessary a co-ordination of different actions at the following levels. i. Facility Operation implies Local level. ii. Facility Property implies National level iii. Local Authority implies Local level iv. National Authority implies National level Taking into account all the last, these following functions must be covered: a) Management: incorporating communication, diagnosis and prognosis areas. b) Decision: incorporating communication and information means. c) Services: in order to facilitate the decision, as well as the execution of this decision. d) Analysis: in order to facilitate the situations that make easier to decide. e) Documentation: to seek the information for the analysts and decision makers. (Author)

  20. Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magliocca, N R; Ellis, E C; Oates, T; Schmill, M

    2014-01-01

    To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goals of Digital Earth, GLOBE has the capability to assess the global relevance of local case-study findings within the context of over 50 global biophysical, land-use, climate, and socio-economic datasets. We demonstrate the implementation of one such assessment – a representativeness analysis – with a recently published meta-study of changes in swidden agriculture in tropical forests. The analysis provides a standardized indicator to judge the global representativeness of the trends reported in the meta-study, and a geovisualization is presented that highlights areas for which sampling efforts can be reduced and those in need of further study. GLOBE will enable researchers and institutions to rapidly share, compare, and synthesize local and regional studies within the global context, as well as contributing to the larger goal of creating a Digital Earth

  1. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  2. GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

    OpenAIRE

    Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

    2015-01-01

    Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

  3. How social structure changes in Chinese global cities: Synthesizing globalization, migration and institutional factors in Beijing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, Q.; Liu, T.; Musterd, S.; Cao, G.

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies on the social structural change in global cities have recognized globalization, migration, and institutional factors as three main forces underlying this process. However, effects of these factors have rarely been synthetically examined and the social structure of emerging Chinese

  4. CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Davies, Stuart J. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC (United States). Dept. of Botany; Bennett, Amy C. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Gonzalez-Akre, Erika B. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Muller-Landau, Helene C. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Joseph Wright, S. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Abu Salim, Kamariah [Univ. of Brunei Darussalam, Bandar Seri Begawan (Brunei). Faculty of Science. Environmental and Life Sciences; Almeyda Zambrano, Angélica M. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Stanford Woods Inst. for the Environment; Univ. of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL (United States). Dept. of Geography; Alonso, Alfonso [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst., Washington, DC (United States). National Zoological Park. Center for Conservation Education and Sustainability; Baltzer, Jennifer L. [Wilfrid Laurier Univ., Waterloo, ON (Canada). Dept. of Biology; Basset, Yves [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Bourg, Norman A. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Broadbent, Eben N. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst. (SCBI), Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Stanford Woods Inst. for the Environment; Univ. of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL (United States). Dept. of Geography; Brockelman, Warren Y. [Mahidol Univ., Bangkok (Thailand). Dept. of Biology; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh [Dept. of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation, Bangkok (Thailand). Research Office; Burslem, David F. R. P. [Univ. of Aberdeen (United Kingdom). School of Biological Sciences; Butt, Nathalie [Univ. of Queensland, St. Lucia (Australia). School of Biological Sciences; Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). School of Geography and the Environment. Environmental Change Inst.; Cao, Min [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Kunming (China). Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden. Key Lab. of Tropical Forest Ecology; Cardenas, Dairon [Sinchi Amazonic Inst. of Scientific Research, Bogota (Colombia); Chuyong, George B. [Univ. of Buea (Cameroon). Dept. of Botany and Plant Physiology; Clay, Keith [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology; Cordell, Susan [USDA Forest Service, Hilo, HI (United States). Inst. of Pacific Islands Forestry; Dattaraja, Handanakere S. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deng, Xiaobao [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Kunming (China). Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden. Key Lab. of Tropical Forest Ecology; Detto, Matteo [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Du, Xiaojun [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany; Duque, Alvaro [Univ. Nacional de Colombia, Medellin (Colombia). Dept. de Ciencias Forestales; Erikson, David L. [National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC (United States). Dept. of Botany; Ewango, Corneille E. N. [Okapi Wildlife Reserve, Epulu (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Centre de Formation et de Recherche en Conservation Forestiere (CEFRECOF); Fischer, Gunter A. [Kadoorie Farm and Botanic Garden, Tai Po, Hong Kong (China); Fletcher, Christine [Forest Research Inst. Malaysia (FRIM), Selangor (Malaysia); Foster, Robin B. [The Field Museum, Chicago, IL (United States). Botany Dept.; Giardina, Christian P. [USDA Forest Service, Hilo, HI (United States). Inst. of Pacific Islands Forestry; Gilbert, Gregory S. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States). Environmental Studies Dept.; Gunatilleke, Nimal [Univ. of Peradeniya (Sri Lanka). Faculty of Science. Dept. of Botany; Gunatilleke, Savitri [Univ. of Peradeniya (Sri Lanka). Faculty of Science. Dept. of Botany; Hao, Zhanqing [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Shenyang (China). State Key Lab. of Forest and Soil Ecology. Inst. of Applied Ecology; Hargrove, William W. [USDA-Forest Service Station Headquarters, Asheville, NC (United States). Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center; Hart, Terese B. [Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation, Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Tshuapa-Lomami-Lualaba Project; Hau, Billy C. H. [Univ. of Hong Kong (China). School of Biological Sciences. Kadoorie Inst.; He, Fangliang [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Renewable Resources; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computational Earth Sciences Group; Howe, Robert W. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Green Bay, WI (United States). Dept. of Natural and Applied Sciences; Hubbell, Stephen P. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Inman-Narahari, Faith M. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States). College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources; Jansen, Patrick A. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands). Resource Ecology Group; Jiang, Mingxi [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Wuhan (China). Wuhan Botanical Garden; Johnson, Daniel J. [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology; Kanzaki, Mamoru [Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Graduate School of Agriculture; Kassim, Abdul Rahman [Forest Research Inst. Malaysia (FRIM), Selangor (Malaysia); Kenfack, David [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC (United States). Dept. of Botany; Kibet, Staline [National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi (Kenya); Univ. of Nairobi (Kenya). Land Resource Management and Agricultural Technology Dept.; Kinnaird, Margaret F. [Mpala Research Centre, Nanyuki (Kenya); Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY (United States). Global Conservation Programs; Korte, Lisa [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst., Washington, DC (United States). National Zoological Park. Center for Conservation Education and Sustainability; Kral, Kamil [Silva Tarouca Research Inst., Brno (Czech Republic). Dept. of Forest Ecology; Kumar, Jitendra [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computational Earth Sciences Group; Larson, Andrew J. [Univ. of Montana, Missoula, MT (United States). College of Forestry and Conservation. Dept. of Forest Management; Li, Yide [Chinese Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou (China). Research Inst. of Tropical Forestry; Li, Xiankun [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Guilin (China). Guangxi Inst. of Botany; Liu, Shirong [Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing (China). Research Inst. of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection; Lum, Shawn K. Y. [Nanyang Technological Univ. (Singapore). National Inst. of Education. Natural Sciences and Science Education Academic Group; Lutz, James A. [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States). Wildland Resources Dept.; Ma, Keping [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany; Maddalena, Damian M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computational Earth Sciences Group; Makana, Jean-Remy [Wildlife Conservation Society, Brazzaville (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Malhi, Yadvinder [Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). School of Geography and the Environment. Environmental Change Inst.; Marthews, Toby [Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). School of Geography and the Environment. Environmental Change Inst.; Mat Serudin, Rafizah [Univ. of Brunei Darussalam, Bandar Seri Begawan (Brunei). Faculty of Science. Environmental and Life Sciences; McMahon, Sean M. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD (United States). Forest Ecology Group; McShea, William J. [Smithsonian Conservation Biology Inst., Front Royal, VA (United States). National Zoological Park. Conservation Ecology Center; Memiaghe, Hervé R. [Inst. de Recherche en Ecologie Tropicale, Libreville (Gabon). Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique et Technologique; Mi, Xiangcheng [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany; Mizuno, Takashi [Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Graduate School of Agriculture; Morecroft, Michael [Natural England, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Myers, Jonathan A. [Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO (United States). Dept. of Biology; Novotny, Vojtech [New Guinea Binatang Research Centre, Madang (Papua New Guinea); Univ. of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice (Czech Republic). Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic. Faculty of Science. Biology Centre; de Oliveira, Alexandre A. [Univ. of Sao Paulo (Brazil). Inst. of Biosciences. Ecology Dept.; Ong, Perry S. [Univ. of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City (Philippines). Inst. of Biology; Orwig, David A. [Harvard Univ., Petersham, MA (United States). Harvard Forest; Ostertag, Rebecca [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States). Dept. of Biology; den Ouden, Jan [Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands). Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group; Parker, Geoffrey G. [Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD (United States). Forest Ecology Group; Phillips, Richard P. [Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology; Sack, Lawren [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Sainge, Moses N. [Tropical Plant Exploration Group (TroPEG), Mundemba (Cameroon); Sang, Weiguo [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany; Sri-ngernyuang, Kriangsak [Maejo Univ., Chiang Mai (Thailand). Faculty of Architecture and Environmental Design; Sukumar, Raman [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Sun, I-Fang [National Dong Hwa Univ., Hualian (Taiwan). Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies; Sungpalee, Witchaphart [Maejo Univ., Chiang Mai (Thailand). Faculty of Architecture and Environmental Design; Suresh, Hebbalalu Sathyanarayana [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Tan, Sylvester [Sarawak Forest Dept., Kuching (Malaysia); Thomas, Sean C. [Univ. of Toronto, ON (Canada). Faculty of Forestry; Thomas, Duncan W. [Washington State Univ., Vancouver, WA (United States). School of Biological Sciences; Thompson, Jill [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik, Scotland (United Kingdom); Univ. of Puerto Rico Rio Pedras, San Juan (Puerto Rico). Dept. of Environmental Science. Inst. for Tropical Ecosystem Studies; Turner, Benjamin L. [Smithsonian Tropical Research Inst. (STRI), Panama (Panama). Center for Tropical Forest Science. Forest Global Earth Observatory; Uriarte, Maria [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology; Valencia, Renato [Pontifical Catholic Univ. of Ecuador, Quito (Ecuador). Dept. of Biological Sciences; Vallejo, Marta I. [Inst. Alexander von Humboldt, Bogota (Colombia); Vicentini, Alberto [National Inst. of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus (Brazil); Vrška, Tomáš [Silva Tarouca Research Inst., Brno (Czech Republic). Dept. of Forest Ecology; Wang, Xihua [East China Normal Univ. (ECNU), Shanghai (China). School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences; Wang, Xugao [Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation, Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Tshuapa-Lomami-Lualaba Project; Weiblen, George [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). Dept. of Plant Biology; Wolf, Amy [Univ. of Wisconsin, Green Bay, WI (United States). Dept. of Biology. Dept. of Natural and Applied Sciences; Xu, Han [Chinese Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou (China). Research Inst. of Tropical Forestry; Yap, Sandra [Univ. of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City (Philippines). Inst. of Biology; Zimmerman, Jess [Univ. of Puerto Rico Rio Piedras, San Juan (Puerto Rico). Dept. of Environmental Science. Inst. for Tropical Ecosystem Studies

    2014-09-25

    Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services, including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamic research sites useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. The broad suite of measurements made at the CTFS-ForestGEO sites make it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. ongoing research across the network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in a era of global change

  5. Global Malmquist indices of productivity change in Egyptian wheat production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elasraag, Y.H.; Alarcón, S.

    2017-07-01

    This study aims to measure the total factor productivity of the main govern orates of wheat production in Egypt during the time period 1990-2012 and decompose it into technical change, efficiency change and scale change. We used Global Malmquist TFP index as a non-parametric approach. The results indicated that the contribution of technical change component is more important than the efficiency change component. In fact technical change rose, 25.7%, while efficiency change presented a little decline, 3.7%. The decomposition of efficiency change indicated that the main problem of wheat production in Egypt was scale efficiency that worsened by 5.5%.

  6. Global warming: a changing climate for hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oud, E.

    1993-01-01

    This paper quantifies the benefits attributable to hydroelectric power generation in preventing carbon dioxide emissions from the use of thermal plants. It proposes that utilities and funding agencies consider the societal costs associated with the emission of CO 2 in power system planning. It also suggests that the industrialized countries should consider changing their funding practice and give more appropriate credits for the construction of hydro plants in developing countries, with a view to avoiding the construction and operation of fossil fuelled powerplants. (author)

  7. Global environmental change and the biology of arbuscular mycorrhizas: gaps and challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitter, A.H.; Heinemeyer, A.; Husband, R.

    2004-01-01

    Our ability to make predictions about the impact of global environmental change on arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and on their role in regulating biotic response to such change is seriously hampered by our lack of knowledge of the basic biology of these ubiquitous organisms. Current information...

  8. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  9. Human dimensions of global change: Toward a research agenda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, I.

    1991-01-01

    The Earth's environment is being transformed by human activity. Human activity, in turn, is being affected by these transformations. This interaction is being studied under the aegis of global change in the geosphere-biosphere. The purpose here is to explore the basis for and the substance of a proposed research program focused on the human dimensions of global change. Global warming due to the greenhouse effect, CO2 reduction, environment impacts, land use management, and the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere are among the topics covered

  10. Doing global science a guide to responsible conduct in the global research enterprise

    CERN Document Server

    InterAcademy Partnership

    2016-01-01

    This concise introductory guide explains the values that should inform the responsible conduct of scientific research in today's global setting. Featuring accessible discussions and ample real-world scenarios, Doing Global Science covers proper conduct, fraud and bias, the researcher's responsibilities to society, communication with the public, and much more. The book places special emphasis on the international and highly networked environment in which modern research is done, presenting science as an enterprise that is being transformed by globalization, interdisciplinary research projects, team science, and information technologies. Accessibly written by an InterAcademy Partnership committee comprised of leading scientists from around the world, Doing Global Science is required reading for students, practitioners, and anyone concerned about the responsible conduct of science today.

  11. Maize production in terms of global climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekavac Goran

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes and expected variability of climatic parameters represent a serious concern of the 21st century agriculture. At the global level, the further rise in temperature, changed quantity and distribution of precipitation, increased variability of climate parameters and the occurrence of extreme climate events are expected. In order to avoid, or at least reduce the negative effects of global climate change, several adaptation strategies are proposed. Adjustment of production technology and breeding for tolerance to changed environment are proposed as two most important adaptation measures.

  12. Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodegom, P. V.

    2015-12-01

    Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

  13. Grapevine responses to terroir: a global approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alain Deloire

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the technical and/or practical treatment of terroir as a study concept, together with related functional aspects. Functioning of the terroir relies on the relation between climate, soil and vine. In addition to this interaction, a comprehensive study concept for terroir requires the consideration of viticultural and enological sciences and techniques necessary to ensure the assurance of wine quality, together with spatial aspects of the grapevine response to environmental factors, as required for vineyard management. In order to comprehend the quality of the harvest, it is necessary to understand the relationship « whole plant - berry ». An easy field and laboratory method to study the relationship between the whole plant and berry and the consequences thereof for wine quality is proposed. Knowledge of grapevine water status and the biochemical evolution within the grape berry from berry set onwards are important issues for the understanding of the role that terroir plays with respect to the quality of the harvest and the wine style or « typicality ».

  14. Role of Bioethanol in Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheehan, John [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    1998-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has supported a research and development program for the establishment of renewable, biomass-derived, liquid fuels for the better part of the last twenty years. These 'biofuels' represent opportunities to respond to uncertainties about our energy security and the future health of our environment. Throughout its history, the Biofuels program has experienced an ongoing fiscal 'roller coaster'. Funding has ebbed and flowed with changing political and public attitudes about energy. The program was initiated in a flood of funding in the late 1970s related to the energy shortages experienced in that period. The flooding turned rapidly to drought as falling oil prices dissipated public concern about energy supplies. In the late 1980s, funding for the program slowly increased, driven by national security issues.

  15. Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper

    2016-01-01

    foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we...... on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach......Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader...

  16. Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

  17. Alternative legal and institutional approaches to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thacher, P.S.

    1991-01-01

    The processes of global change currently under way cannot be dealt with in isolation. Factors linked to environmental quality such as demographic growth, economic interdependence and indebtedness, sociopolitical changes, and others must be managed collectively. In looking at the problems of global change, a central question before us is: How comprehensive should a legal regime be in a world of considerable uncertainty in which everything is interrelated with everything else, and what we do may, or may not be, have irreversible consequences for future generations. This article focuses on the problem of global warming to provide a model approach to the larger issues of global change. This reduces the scope of global change to a manageable but representative class of the problems at issue. The author suggests an approach to stabilize global climate by the end of the next century. However, even within this relatively narrow context of stabilizing the climate, a comprehensive approach is needed to address all heat-trapping gases - not just CO 2 - to ensure that all human activities generating these gases are managed properly, without causing other problems

  18. The global transcriptional response of fission yeast to hydrogen sulfide.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Jia

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hydrogen sulfide (H(2S is a newly identified member of the small family of gasotransmitters that are endogenous gaseous signaling molecules that have a fundamental role in human biology and disease. Although it is a relatively recent discovery and the mechanism of H(2S activity is not completely understood, it is known to be involved in a number of cellular processes; H(2S can affect ion channels, transcription factors and protein kinases in mammals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this paper, we have used fission yeast as a model organism to study the global gene expression profile in response to H(2S by microarray. We initially measured the genome-wide transcriptional response of fission yeast to H(2S. Through the functional classification of genes whose expression profile changed in response to H(2S, we found that H(2S mainly influences genes that encode putative or known stress proteins, membrane transporters, cell cycle/meiotic proteins, transcription factors and respiration protein in the mitochondrion. Our analysis showed that there was a significant overlap between the genes affected by H(2S and the stress response. We identified that the target genes of the MAPK pathway respond to H(2S; we also identified that a number of transporters respond to H(2S, these include sugar/carbohydrate transporters, ion transporters, and amino acid transporters. We found many mitochondrial genes to be down regulated upon H(2S treatment and that H(2S can reduce mitochondrial oxygen consumption. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study identifies potential molecular targets of the signaling molecule H(2S in fission yeast and provides clues about the identity of homologues human proteins and will further the understanding of the cellular role of H(2S in human diseases.

  19. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #24: PUBLICATION OF FY2001 EDITION OF "OUR CHANGING PLANET"

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Global Change Research Program is pleased to inform you of the publication of the new Our Changing Planet: The FY2001 U.S. Global Change Research Program. This annual report to the Congress was prepared under the auspices of the President's National Science and Technolog...

  20. Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

    2012-01-01

    Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

  1. Conceptualizing psychological processes in response to globalization: Components, antecedents, and consequences of global orientations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Sylvia Xiaohua; Lam, Ben C P; Hui, Bryant P H; Ng, Jacky C K; Mak, Winnie W S; Guan, Yanjun; Buchtel, Emma E; Tang, Willie C S; Lau, Victor C Y

    2016-02-01

    The influences of globalization have permeated various aspects of life in contemporary society, from technical innovations, economic development, and lifestyles, to communication patterns. The present research proposed a construct termed global orientation to denote individual differences in the psychological processes of acculturating to the globalizing world. It encompasses multicultural acquisition as a proactive response and ethnic protection as a defensive response to globalization. Ten studies examined the applicability of global orientations among majority and minority groups, including immigrants and sojourners, in multicultural and relatively monocultural contexts, and across Eastern and Western cultures. Multicultural acquisition is positively correlated with both independent and interdependent self-construals, bilingual proficiency and usage, and dual cultural identifications. Multicultural acquisition is promotion-focused, while ethnic protection is prevention-focused and related to acculturative stress. Global orientations affect individuating and modest behavior over and above multicultural ideology, predict overlap with outgroups over and above political orientation, and predict psychological adaptation, sociocultural competence, tolerance, and attitudes toward ethnocultural groups over and above acculturation expectations/strategies. Global orientations also predict English and Chinese oral presentation performance in multilevel analyses and the frequency and pleasantness of intercultural contact in cross-lagged panel models. We discuss how the psychological study of global orientations contributes to theory and research on acculturation, cultural identity, and intergroup relations. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    to highlight how their research and activities reinforce conceptual links among global change topics. Pre- and post-workshop assessment results and responses to questionnaires have guided the refinement of classroom activities and assessment tools utilizing flowcharts as models for global change processes.

  3. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy

    2014-01-01

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day −1 , while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO 2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day −1 ) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked. (letters)

  4. Shallow water carbonate platforms (Late Aptian–Early Albian, Southern Apennines in the context of supraregional to global changes: re-appraisal of palaeoecological events as reflectors of carbonate factory response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Raspini

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the palaeoenvironmental significance of the "Orbitolina Level", the microbial carbonates and the Salpingoporella dinarica-rich deposits encased in the Aptian/Albian shallow water carbonate platform strata of Monte Tobenna and Monte Faito (Southern Italy. These facies show a peculiar field appearance due to their color and/or fossil content. In the shallow water carbonate strata, the Late Aptian "Orbitolina Level" was formed during a period of decreasing accommodation space. Microbial carbonates occur in different levels in the composite section. They reach their maximum thickness around the sequence boundaries just above the "Orbitolina Level" and close to the Aptian–Albian transition, and were not deposited during maximum flooding. S. dinarica-rich deposits occur in the lower part of the Monte Tobenna-Monte Faito composite section, in both restricted and more open lagoonal sediments. S. dinarica has its maximum abundance below the "Orbitolina Level" and disappears 11 m above this layer.

    On the basis of δ13C and δ18O values recorded at Tobenna-Faito, the succession has been correlated to global sea-level changes and to the main volcanic and climatic events during the Aptian. Deterioration of the inner lagoon environmental conditions was related to high trophic levels triggered by volcano-tectonic activity. Microbial carbonates were deposited especially in periods of third-order sea level lowering. In such a scenario, periods of increased precipitation during the Gargasian induced the mobilization of clay during flooding of the exposed platform due to high-frequency sea-level changes, with consequent terrigenous input to the lagoon. This and the high nutrient levels made the conditions unsuitable for the principle carbonate producers, and an opportunistic biota rich in orbitolinids (Mesorbitolina texana and M. parva populated the platform. In the more open

  5. Shallow water carbonate platforms (Late Aptian-Early Albian, Southern Apennines) in the context of supraregional to global changes: re-appraisal of palaeoecological events as reflectors of carbonate factory response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raspini, A.

    2012-08-01

    This paper discusses the palaeoenvironmental significance of the "Orbitolina Level", the microbial carbonates and the Salpingoporella dinarica-rich deposits encased in the Aptian/Albian shallow water carbonate platform strata of Monte Tobenna and Monte Faito (Southern Italy). These facies show a peculiar field appearance due to their color and/or fossil content. In the shallow water carbonate strata, the Late Aptian "Orbitolina Level" was formed during a period of decreasing accommodation space. Microbial carbonates occur in different levels in the composite section. They reach their maximum thickness around the sequence boundaries just above the "Orbitolina Level" and close to the Aptian-Albian transition, and were not deposited during maximum flooding. S. dinarica-rich deposits occur in the lower part of the Monte Tobenna-Monte Faito composite section, in both restricted and more open lagoonal sediments. S. dinarica has its maximum abundance below the "Orbitolina Level" and disappears 11 m above this layer. On the basis of δ13C and δ18O values recorded at Tobenna-Faito, the succession has been correlated to global sea-level changes and to the main volcanic and climatic events during the Aptian. Deterioration of the inner lagoon environmental conditions was related to high trophic levels triggered by volcano-tectonic activity. Microbial carbonates were deposited especially in periods of third-order sea level lowering. In such a scenario, periods of increased precipitation during the Gargasian induced the mobilization of clay during flooding of the exposed platform due to high-frequency sea-level changes, with consequent terrigenous input to the lagoon. This and the high nutrient levels made the conditions unsuitable for the principle carbonate producers, and an opportunistic biota rich in orbitolinids (Mesorbitolina texana and M. parva) populated the platform. In the more open marine domain, the increased nutrient input enhanced the production of organic matter

  6. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  7. Corporate social responsibility in the new global economy

    OpenAIRE

    Lindfelt, Lise-Lotte

    2002-01-01

    This paper is a discussion of the rights and responsibilities of global corporations. Multinational and transnational corporations of the new economy face a serious difficulty in being ethical today. The environment is subject to the enormous influence of material monism and ethics becomes at times a question of profits. This paper discusses a few aspects on ethical marketing strategies, the use of ethical codes and corporate survival under the pressures of increasing globalization. The purpo...

  8. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  9. Development of Global Change Research in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, Carlos A.; Yepes, Adriana P.

    2010-10-01

    Ecosystems and Global Change in the Context of the Neotropics; Medellín, Colombia, 19-20 May 2010; Research in most areas of global environmental change is overwhelmingly produced outside developing countries, which are usually consumers rather than producers of the knowledge associated with their natural resources. While there have been important recent advances in understanding the causes of global-¬scale changes and their consequences to the functioning of tropical ecosystems, there is still an important gap in the understanding of these changes at regional and national levels (where important political decisions are usually made). A symposium was held with the aim of surveying the current state of research activities in a small, developing country such as Colombia. It was jointly organized by the Research Center on Ecosystems and Global Change, Carbono and Bosques; the National University of Colombia at Medellín and the Colombian Ministry of the Environment, Housing, and Regional Development. This 2-¬day symposium gathered Colombian and international scientists involved in different areas of global environmental change, tropical ecosystems, and human societies.

  10. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.

  11. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases.

  12. Defining health diplomacy: changing demands in the era of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Rebecca; Kornblet, Sarah; Arnold, Grace; Lief, Eric; Fischer, Julie E

    2011-09-01

    Accelerated globalization has produced obvious changes in diplomatic purposes and practices. Health issues have become increasingly preeminent in the evolving global diplomacy agenda. More leaders in academia and policy are thinking about how to structure and utilize diplomacy in pursuit of global health goals. In this article, we describe the context, practice, and components of global health diplomacy, as applied operationally. We examine the foundations of various approaches to global health diplomacy, along with their implications for the policies shaping the international public health and foreign policy environments. Based on these observations, we propose a taxonomy for the subdiscipline. Expanding demands on global health diplomacy require a delicate combination of technical expertise, legal knowledge, and diplomatic skills that have not been systematically cultivated among either foreign service or global health professionals. Nonetheless, high expectations that global health initiatives will achieve development and diplomatic goals beyond the immediate technical objectives may be thwarted by this gap. The deepening links between health and foreign policy require both the diplomatic and global health communities to reexamine the skills, comprehension, and resources necessary to achieve their mutual objectives. © 2011 Milbank Memorial Fund. Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

  13. Defining Health Diplomacy: Changing Demands in the Era of Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Rebecca; Kornblet, Sarah; Arnold, Grace; Lief, Eric; Fischer, Julie E

    2011-01-01

    Context: Accelerated globalization has produced obvious changes in diplomatic purposes and practices. Health issues have become increasingly preeminent in the evolving global diplomacy agenda. More leaders in academia and policy are thinking about how to structure and utilize diplomacy in pursuit of global health goals. Methods: In this article, we describe the context, practice, and components of global health diplomacy, as applied operationally. We examine the foundations of various approaches to global health diplomacy, along with their implications for the policies shaping the international public health and foreign policy environments. Based on these observations, we propose a taxonomy for the subdiscipline. Findings: Expanding demands on global health diplomacy require a delicate combination of technical expertise, legal knowledge, and diplomatic skills that have not been systematically cultivated among either foreign service or global health professionals. Nonetheless, high expectations that global health initiatives will achieve development and diplomatic goals beyond the immediate technical objectives may be thwarted by this gap. Conclusions: The deepening links between health and foreign policy require both the diplomatic and global health communities to reexamine the skills, comprehension, and resources necessary to achieve their mutual objectives. PMID:21933277

  14. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  15. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  16. Mineral supply constraints necessitate a global policy response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickless, Edmund

    2016-04-01

    Adoption on 12 December 2015 of The Paris Agreement, the first universal climate agreement, suggests that nations will invest in infrastructures for renewable energy sources paving the way to a global low-carbon society. These large-scale changes will require vast amounts of metals and minerals. Regardless of whether known supplies are enough to meet demand in the near future, efforts must be made now to forestall unpredictable yet inevitable supply shortages in the decades to come, shortages that would dramatically impact the building of additional generation and distribution capacity, and deployment of low-carbon technology. But in response to the current downturn in commodity prices, the global mining industry is downsizing and reducing investment in the new exploration, putting at risk future security of supply. Mining and climate change are inextricably linked; the new adaptive technologies needed to tackle climate change depend on extraction of minerals and metals. An interdisciplinary group supported by the International Union of Geological Sciences, the International Council for Science Unions and UNESCO proposes measures to avert the looming minerals crisis that is developing in the context of current recycling capacity and exploration trends. Our immediate goal is to stimulate discussion of supply constraints using available data on mineral reserves. We build on recent discussions of supply risk and criticality with a focus on the source of primary resources over the next two to three decades when the availability of metals for recycling will remain low. Current massive production of iron ore and other such commodities despite record low prices indicates a failure of the traditional supply and demand constraints. Broader discussions of metal and mineral supply beyond current criticality are needed given the pace of technological and demographic change as well as rapid development spurts. Furthermore, accessible mineral deposits are irregularly distributed

  17. Global change and paraglacial morphodynamic modification in Svalbard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lafly, D.; Mercier, D.

    2000-01-01

    The study of glaciers is a good means by which to determine the impact of global climatic change. Svalbard is an area located in the polar oceanic environment that records contemporary global climatic change with acute sensitivity through the paraglacial process called runoff, which is considered to be the most effective erosional process, relegating glacial and periglacial processes to a lesser level of influence. This study introduced the method of cartography and field data acquisition through systematic non-aligned surveys to determine changes in glacial morphology. A large prograding shoreline was observed at the down side of sand dunes, which gain ground over the space occupied by the fjords because of a large amount of sediment. These sediments are carried by flowing water that feeds off glacier meltwater, following climatic global change. The study showed that remote sensing makes it possible to map landscapes while still taking into account certain aspects of their dynamics. 27 refs., 10 figs

  18. Globalisation of tobacco industry influence and new global responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yach, D.; Bettcher, D.

    2000-01-01

    The globalisation of tobacco marketing, trade, research, and industry influence represents a major threat to public health worldwide. Drawing upon tobacco industry strategy documents prepared over several decades, this paper will demonstrate how the tobacco industry operates as a global force, regarding the world as its operating market by planning, developing, and marketing its products on a global scale. The industry has used a wide range of methods to buy influence and power, and penetrate markets across the world. It has an annual turnover of almost US$400 billion. In contrast, until recently tobacco control lacked global leadership and strategic direction and had been severely underfunded. As part of moving towards a more sustainable form of globalisation, a global enabling environment linked to local actions should focus on the following strategies: global information management; development of nationally and locally grounded action; global regulation, legal instruments, and foreign policy; and establishment of strong partnerships with purpose. As the vector of the tobacco epidemic, the tobacco industry's actions fall far outside of the boundaries of global corporate responsibility. Therefore, global and local actions should not provide the tobacco industry with the two things that it needs to ensure its long term profitability: respectability and predictability.


Keywords: globalisation of tobacco marketing PMID:10841858

  19. How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

  20. Climate change and the World Bank: opportunity for global governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehmer-Christiansen, S.A.

    1999-01-01

    The direct and indirect efforts of the World Bank and its off-spring, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), to become leading international agents of global environmental 'governance' and 'sustainable development' are described and analysed politically with reference to the development of an implementation regime of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The Bank/GEF are seen as engaging in a potentially dangerous experiment of 'global ecological modernisation', or industrial transformation, in 'emerging economies', an experiment legitimised by reference to the catastrophic threat of man-made 'global warming'. This threat is already being translated into political, commercial and bureaucratic benefits accruing to a small global elite. How was this achieved and what are the likely political implications? (author)

  1. Global Ecosystem Response Types Derived from the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and FPAR3g Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ivits, Eva; Horion, Stéphanie Marie Anne F; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2014-01-01

    Observing trends in global ecosystem dynamics is an important first step, but attributing these trends to climate variability represents a further step in understanding Earth system changes. In the present study, we classified global Ecosystem Response Types (ERTs) based on common spatio-temporal......Observing trends in global ecosystem dynamics is an important first step, but attributing these trends to climate variability represents a further step in understanding Earth system changes. In the present study, we classified global Ecosystem Response Types (ERTs) based on common spatio...... were observed in Asia and North America. These ERTs complement traditional pixel based methods by enabling the combined assessment of the location, timing, duration, frequency and severity of climatic and vegetation anomalies with the joint assessment of wetting and drying climatic conditions. The ERTs...

  2. Globalization and the Changing Epidemiology of Hepatitis A Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Kathryn H

    2018-03-02

    Increased economic interdependence, social integration, and other aspects of globalization are contributing to significant changes in hepatitis A epidemiology. Globally, the incidence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is decreasing, the age at midpoint of population immunity (AMPI) is increasing, and the proportion of symptomatic cases is increasing as the average age at infection increases. In low-income countries, HAV remains endemic but improved water and sanitation systems are reducing transmission rates among young children. In high-income countries, most adults remain susceptible to HAV and foodborne outbreaks are becoming more frequent. Middle-income countries have diverse epidemiological profiles, and they play important roles in the global spread of HAV through international trade and travel. Future changes in the epidemiology of hepatitis A will be heavily influenced by globalization processes. Copyright © 2018 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

  3. Monitoring adaptive genetic responses to environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, M.M.; Olivieri, I.; Waller, D.M.

    2012-01-01

    Widespread environmental changes including climate change, selective harvesting and landscape alterations now greatly affect selection regimes for most organisms. How animals and plants can adapt to these altered environments via contemporary evolution is thus of strong interest. We discuss how...... for selection and establishing clear links between genetic and environmental change. We then review a few exemplary studies that explore adaptive responses to climate change in Drosophila, selective responses to hunting and fishing, and contemporary evolution in Daphnia using resurrected resting eggs. We...

  4. Global change in the trophic functioning of marine food webs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurore Maureaud

    Full Text Available The development of fisheries in the oceans, and other human drivers such as climate warming, have led to changes in species abundance, assemblages, trophic interactions, and ultimately in the functioning of marine food webs. Here, using a trophodynamic approach and global databases of catches and life history traits of marine species, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic ecological impacts may have led to changes in the global parameters defining the transfers of biomass within the food web. First, we developed two indicators to assess such changes: the Time Cumulated Indicator (TCI measuring the residence time of biomass within the food web, and the Efficiency Cumulated Indicator (ECI quantifying the fraction of secondary production reaching the top of the trophic chain. Then, we assessed, at the large marine ecosystem scale, the worldwide change of these two indicators over the 1950-2010 time-periods. Global trends were identified and cluster analyses were used to characterize the variability of trends between ecosystems. Results showed that the most common pattern over the study period is a global decrease in TCI, while the ECI indicator tends to increase. Thus, changes in species assemblages would induce faster and apparently more efficient biomass transfers in marine food webs. Results also suggested that the main driver of change over that period had been the large increase in fishing pressure. The largest changes occurred in ecosystems where 'fishing down the marine food web' are most intensive.

  5. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  6. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  7. From the international geophysical year to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleagle, R.G.

    1992-01-01

    A series of major scientific programs carried out over the past 40 years has greatly increased understanding of our global environment and has led to the present concern over global change. Each program responded to a specific and urgent scientific need or opportunity. In each case, institutions and resources were created that provided the foundation for later programs. Increased scientific understanding has exposed threats to future welfare and has raised serious policy implications for governments. Institutions for responding to global policy issues need to be created or strengthened. Recommendations for better procedures and institutional structures are provided in this article. 39 refs

  8. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  9. Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt A.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

  10. Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs

  11. Coccolithophore calcification response to past ocean acidification and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dea, Sarah A; Gibbs, Samantha J; Bown, Paul R; Young, Jeremy R; Poulton, Alex J; Newsam, Cherry; Wilson, Paul A

    2014-11-17

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are forcing rapid ocean chemistry changes and causing ocean acidification (OA), which is of particular significance for calcifying organisms, including planktonic coccolithophores. Detailed analysis of coccolithophore skeletons enables comparison of calcite production in modern and fossil cells in order to investigate biomineralization response of ancient coccolithophores to climate change. Here we show that the two dominant coccolithophore taxa across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) OA global warming event (~56 million years ago) exhibited morphological response to environmental change and both showed reduced calcification rates. However, only Coccolithus pelagicus exhibits a transient thinning of coccoliths, immediately before the PETM, that may have been OA-induced. Changing coccolith thickness may affect calcite production more significantly in the dominant modern species Emiliania huxleyi, but, overall, these PETM records indicate that the environmental factors that govern taxonomic composition and growth rate will most strongly influence coccolithophore calcification response to anthropogenic change.

  12. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    1996-01-01

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can't yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes

  13. Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzel, F.

    2009-12-01

    The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

  14. Agile Data Management with the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    We describe experiences applying agile software development techniques to the realm of data management during the development of the Global Change Information System (GCIS), a web service and API for authoritative global change information under development by the US Global Change Research Program. Some of the challenges during system design and implementation have been : (1) balancing the need for a rigorous mechanism for ensuring information quality with the realities of large data sets whose contents are often in flux, (2) utilizing existing data to inform decisions about the scope and nature of new data, and (3) continuously incorporating new knowledge and concepts into a relational data model. The workflow for managing the content of the system has much in common with the development of the system itself. We examine various aspects of agile software development and discuss whether or how we have been able to use them for data curation as well as software development.

  15. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

    1993-09-01

    A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  16. Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigham, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

  17. Antarctica and Global Environmental Change - Lessons from the Past Inform Climate Change Policy Today

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, R. B.; Scientific Team Of Odp Drilling Leg 318; Andrill Science Team

    2011-12-01

    Antarctic's continental ice, sea ice, and the broader Southern Ocean form a coupled and complex climate system that interacts in important yet poorly understood ways with the low and mid-latitudes. Because of its unusual sovereignty status and the fact that there is no indigenous human population, information about climate change in Antarctica penetrates the policy world less readily than findings from other regions. Yet, Antarctica's potential to impact climate change globally is disproportionately large. Vulnerable portions of the ice sheet may contribute up to 3 to 5 meters of sea level rise in the coming centuries, including significant amounts within the next 50 years. Loss of sea ice and other changes in the Southern Ocean may reduce oceanic uptake of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide, exacerbating global warming worldwide. Antarctica's impact on the Southern Hemisphere wind field is now well-established, contributing to ongoing decadal-scale perturbations in continental precipitation as well as major reorganizations of Southern Ocean food chains. Recent scientific drilling programs in the Ross Sea and off Wilkes Land, Antarctica, provide valuable insights into past climatic and biogeochemical change in Antarctica, insights of great relevance to international and national climate change policy. In this paper, we discuss polar amplification, sea level variability coupled to Antarctic ice volume, and response timescales as seen through the lens of past climate change. One key result emerging from multiple drilling programs is recognition of unanticipated dynamism in the Antarctic ice sheet during portions of the Pliocene (at a time with pCO2 levels equivalent to those anticipated late this century) as well as during "super-interglacials" of the Pleistocene. Evidence for substantially warmer ocean temperatures and reduced sea ice cover at these times suggests that polar amplification of natural climate variability, even under scenarios of relative small amounts

  18. Critical perspectives on changing media environments in the Global South

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Poul Erik

    the changes in the media landscape continuously alter the power balance between state, civil society and market. At the meso level, these changes will be discussed in relation to the development of the different media and of a variety of new locally specific media environments, which create new spaces......The main aim of this article is to give a general overview and theoretically discuss how significant changes in the media landscapes in Global South countries alter existing spaces and create new spaces for political and socio-cultural exchange, thus changing the complex interrelationship between...... media and society. Knowing that media is only one of many aspects in current societal changes, the focus will be more on the interrelationship between media and society and less on other aspects like globalization, education and political reforms. At the macro level, the article will discuss how...

  19. Global inter-annual gravity changes from GRACE: Early results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, J.

    2005-01-01

    with an accuracy of 0.4 muGal corresponding to 9 mm water thickness on spatial scales longer than 1300 km. Four of the most widely used global hydrological models have been investigated for their spatial comparison with GRACE observations of inter-annual gravity field variations due to changes in continental water...... storage. The Global Land Data Assimilation System model has a spatial correlation coefficient with GRACE observations of 0.65 over the northern hemisphere. This demonstrates that the observed gravity field changes on these scales are largely related to changes in continental water storage.......Fifteen monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin satellites launched more than two years ago have been studied to estimate gravity field changes between 2002 and 2003. The results demonstrate that GRACE is capable of capturing the changes in ground water on inter-annual scales...

  20. Integrating scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, H.D.; Yang, Z.

    1994-01-01

    The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is conducting research on methods for integrating the science of potential global change with economic analysis of litigation policies and quantification of economic and environmental impacts. The paper describes this work, with a focus on the way that research within the various contributing disciplines, and the design of their associated models, are influenced by the process of inclusion in an integrated framework for policy analysis. The results should contribute new insight into the relative importance of key feedbacks within the economy-climate-ecology system