WorldWideScience

Sample records for generation statistical modelling

  1. Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002

  2. Automated robust generation of compact 3D statistical shape models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrtovec, Tomaz; Likar, Bostjan; Tomazevic, Dejan; Pernus, Franjo

    2004-05-01

    Ascertaining the detailed shape and spatial arrangement of anatomical structures is important not only within diagnostic settings but also in the areas of planning, simulation, intraoperative navigation, and tracking of pathology. Robust, accurate and efficient automated segmentation of anatomical structures is difficult because of their complexity and inter-patient variability. Furthermore, the position of the patient during image acquisition, the imaging device and protocol, image resolution, and other factors induce additional variations in shape and appearance. Statistical shape models (SSMs) have proven quite successful in capturing structural variability. A possible approach to obtain a 3D SSM is to extract reference voxels by precisely segmenting the structure in one, reference image. The corresponding voxels in other images are determined by registering the reference image to each other image. The SSM obtained in this way describes statistically plausible shape variations over the given population as well as variations due to imperfect registration. In this paper, we present a completely automated method that significantly reduces shape variations induced by imperfect registration, thus allowing a more accurate description of variations. At each iteration, the derived SSM is used for coarse registration, which is further improved by describing finer variations of the structure. The method was tested on 64 lumbar spinal column CT scans, from which 23, 38, 45, 46 and 42 volumes of interest containing vertebra L1, L2, L3, L4 and L5, respectively, were extracted. Separate SSMs were generated for each vertebra. The results show that the method is capable of reducing the variations induced by registration errors.

  3. Model-generated air quality statistics for application in vegetation response models in Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McVehil, G.E.; Nosal, M.

    1990-01-01

    To test and apply vegetation response models in Alberta, air pollution statistics representative of various parts of the Province are required. At this time, air quality monitoring data of the requisite accuracy and time resolution are not available for most parts of Alberta. Therefore, there exists a need to develop appropriate air quality statistics. The objectives of the work reported here were to determine the applicability of model generated air quality statistics and to develop by modelling, realistic and representative time series of hourly SO 2 concentrations that could be used to generate the statistics demanded by vegetation response models

  4. Patch-based generative shape model and MDL model selection for statistical analysis of archipelagos

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ganz, Melanie; Nielsen, Mads; Brandt, Sami

    2010-01-01

    We propose a statistical generative shape model for archipelago-like structures. These kind of structures occur, for instance, in medical images, where our intention is to model the appearance and shapes of calcifications in x-ray radio graphs. The generative model is constructed by (1) learning ...

  5. Steam generators clogging diagnosis through physical and statistical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girard, S.

    2012-01-01

    Steam generators are massive heat exchangers feeding the turbines of pressurised water nuclear power plants. Internal parts of steam generators foul up with iron oxides which gradually close some holes aimed for the passing of the fluid. This phenomenon called clogging causes safety issues and means to assess it are needed to optimise the maintenance strategy. The approach investigated in this thesis is the analysis of steam generators dynamic behaviour during power transients with a mono dimensional physical model. Two improvements to the model have been implemented. One was taking into account flows orthogonal to the modelling axis, the other was introducing a slip between phases accounting for velocity difference between liquid water and steam. These two elements increased the model's degrees of freedom and improved the adequacy of the simulation to plant data. A new calibration and validation methodology has been proposed to assess the robustness of the model. The initial inverse problem was ill posed: different clogging spatial configurations can produce identical responses. The relative importance of clogging, depending on its localisation, has been estimated by sensitivity analysis with the Sobol' method. The dimension of the model functional output had been previously reduced by principal components analysis. Finally, the input dimension has been reduced by a technique called sliced inverse regression. Based on this new framework, a new diagnosis methodology, more robust and better understood than the existing one, has been proposed. (author)

  6. Physical and statistical models for steam generator clogging diagnosis

    CERN Document Server

    Girard, Sylvain

    2014-01-01

    Clogging of steam generators in nuclear power plants is a highly sensitive issue in terms of performance and safety and this book proposes a completely novel methodology for diagnosing this phenomenon. It demonstrates real-life industrial applications of this approach to French steam generators and applies the approach to operational data gathered from French nuclear power plants. The book presents a detailed review of in situ diagnosis techniques and assesses existing methodologies for clogging diagnosis, whilst examining their limitations. It also addresses numerical modelling of the dynamic

  7. A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-11

    This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

  8. Accurate corresponding point search using sphere-attribute-image for statistical bone model generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Toki; Nakajima, Yoshikazu; Sugita, Naohiko; Mitsuishi, Mamoru; Hashizume, Hiroyuki; Kuramoto, Kouichi; Nakashima, Yosio

    2011-01-01

    Statistical deformable model based two-dimensional/three-dimensional (2-D/3-D) registration is a promising method for estimating the position and shape of patient bone in the surgical space. Since its accuracy depends on the statistical model capacity, we propose a method for accurately generating a statistical bone model from a CT volume. Our method employs the Sphere-Attribute-Image (SAI) and has improved the accuracy of corresponding point search in statistical model generation. At first, target bone surfaces are extracted as SAIs from the CT volume. Then the textures of SAIs are classified to some regions using Maximally-stable-extremal-regions methods. Next, corresponding regions are determined using Normalized cross-correlation (NCC). Finally, corresponding points in each corresponding region are determined using NCC. The application of our method to femur bone models was performed, and worked well in the experiments. (author)

  9. A testing procedure for wind turbine generators based on the power grid statistical model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farajzadehbibalan, Saber; Ramezani, Mohammad Hossein; Nielsen, Peter

    2017-01-01

    In this study, a comprehensive test procedure is developed to test wind turbine generators with a hardware-in-loop setup. The procedure employs the statistical model of the power grid considering the restrictions of the test facility and system dynamics. Given the model in the latent space...

  10. Waste generated in high-rise buildings construction: a quantification model based on statistical multiple regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parisi Kern, Andrea; Ferreira Dias, Michele; Piva Kulakowski, Marlova; Paulo Gomes, Luciana

    2015-05-01

    Reducing construction waste is becoming a key environmental issue in the construction industry. The quantification of waste generation rates in the construction sector is an invaluable management tool in supporting mitigation actions. However, the quantification of waste can be a difficult process because of the specific characteristics and the wide range of materials used in different construction projects. Large variations are observed in the methods used to predict the amount of waste generated because of the range of variables involved in construction processes and the different contexts in which these methods are employed. This paper proposes a statistical model to determine the amount of waste generated in the construction of high-rise buildings by assessing the influence of design process and production system, often mentioned as the major culprits behind the generation of waste in construction. Multiple regression was used to conduct a case study based on multiple sources of data of eighteen residential buildings. The resulting statistical model produced dependent (i.e. amount of waste generated) and independent variables associated with the design and the production system used. The best regression model obtained from the sample data resulted in an adjusted R(2) value of 0.694, which means that it predicts approximately 69% of the factors involved in the generation of waste in similar constructions. Most independent variables showed a low determination coefficient when assessed in isolation, which emphasizes the importance of assessing their joint influence on the response (dependent) variable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Statistical Modeling of Large Wind Plant System's Generation - A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabolic, D.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents simplistic, yet very accurate, descriptive statistical models of various static and dynamic parameters of energy output from a large system of wind plants operated by Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), USA. The system's size at the end of 2013 was 4515 MW of installed capacity. The 5-minute readings from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2013, recorded and published by BPA, were used to derive a number of experimental distributions, which were then used to devise theoretic statistical models with merely one or two parameters. In spite of the simplicity, they reproduced experimental data with great accuracy, which was checked by rigorous tests of goodness-of-fit. Statistical distribution functions were obtained for the following wind generation-related quantities: total generation as percentage of total installed capacity; change in total generation power in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 45, and 60 minutes as percentage of total installed capacity; duration of intervals with total generated power, expressed as percentage of total installed capacity, lower than certain pre-specified level. Limitation of total installed wind plant capacity, when it is determined by regulation demand from wind plants, is discussed, too. The models presented here can be utilized in analyses related to power system economics/policy, which is also briefly discussed in the paper. (author).

  12. Automatic generation of statistical pose and shape models for articulated joints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin Chen; Graham, Jim; Hutchinson, Charles; Muir, Lindsay

    2014-02-01

    Statistical analysis of motion patterns of body joints is potentially useful for detecting and quantifying pathologies. However, building a statistical motion model across different subjects remains a challenging task, especially for a complex joint like the wrist. We present a novel framework for simultaneous registration and segmentation of multiple 3-D (CT or MR) volumes of different subjects at various articulated positions. The framework starts with a pose model generated from 3-D volumes captured at different articulated positions of a single subject (template). This initial pose model is used to register the template volume to image volumes from new subjects. During this process, the Grow-Cut algorithm is used in an iterative refinement of the segmentation of the bone along with the pose parameters. As each new subject is registered and segmented, the pose model is updated, improving the accuracy of successive registrations. We applied the algorithm to CT images of the wrist from 25 subjects, each at five different wrist positions and demonstrated that it performed robustly and accurately. More importantly, the resulting segmentations allowed a statistical pose model of the carpal bones to be generated automatically without interaction. The evaluation results show that our proposed framework achieved accurate registration with an average mean target registration error of 0.34 ±0.27 mm. The automatic segmentation results also show high consistency with the ground truth obtained semi-automatically. Furthermore, we demonstrated the capability of the resulting statistical pose and shape models by using them to generate a measurement tool for scaphoid-lunate dissociation diagnosis, which achieved 90% sensitivity and specificity.

  13. Statistical metrology - measurement and modeling of variation for advanced process development and design rule generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boning, Duane S.; Chung, James E.

    1998-01-01

    Advanced process technology will require more detailed understanding and tighter control of variation in devices and interconnects. The purpose of statistical metrology is to provide methods to measure and characterize variation, to model systematic and random components of that variation, and to understand the impact of variation on both yield and performance of advanced circuits. Of particular concern are spatial or pattern-dependencies within individual chips; such systematic variation within the chip can have a much larger impact on performance than wafer-level random variation. Statistical metrology methods will play an important role in the creation of design rules for advanced technologies. For example, a key issue in multilayer interconnect is the uniformity of interlevel dielectric (ILD) thickness within the chip. For the case of ILD thickness, we describe phases of statistical metrology development and application to understanding and modeling thickness variation arising from chemical-mechanical polishing (CMP). These phases include screening experiments including design of test structures and test masks to gather electrical or optical data, techniques for statistical decomposition and analysis of the data, and approaches to calibrating empirical and physical variation models. These models can be integrated with circuit CAD tools to evaluate different process integration or design rule strategies. One focus for the generation of interconnect design rules are guidelines for the use of 'dummy fill' or 'metal fill' to improve the uniformity of underlying metal density and thus improve the uniformity of oxide thickness within the die. Trade-offs that can be evaluated via statistical metrology include the improvements to uniformity possible versus the effect of increased capacitance due to additional metal

  14. A Statistical Model for Generating a Population of Unclassified Objects and Radiation Signatures Spanning Nuclear Threats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, K.; Sokkappa, P.

    2008-01-01

    This report describes an approach for generating a simulated population of plausible nuclear threat radiation signatures spanning a range of variability that could be encountered by radiation detection systems. In this approach, we develop a statistical model for generating random instances of smuggled nuclear material. The model is based on physics principles and bounding cases rather than on intelligence information or actual threat device designs. For this initial stage of work, we focus on random models using fissile material and do not address scenarios using non-fissile materials. The model has several uses. It may be used as a component in a radiation detection system performance simulation to generate threat samples for injection studies. It may also be used to generate a threat population to be used for training classification algorithms. In addition, we intend to use this model to generate an unclassified 'benchmark' threat population that can be openly shared with other organizations, including vendors, for use in radiation detection systems performance studies and algorithm development and evaluation activities. We assume that a quantity of fissile material is being smuggled into the country for final assembly and that shielding may have been placed around the fissile material. In terms of radiation signature, a nuclear weapon is basically a quantity of fissile material surrounded by various layers of shielding. Thus, our model of smuggled material is expected to span the space of potential nuclear weapon signatures as well. For computational efficiency, we use a generic 1-dimensional spherical model consisting of a fissile material core surrounded by various layers of shielding. The shielding layers and their configuration are defined such that the model can represent the potential range of attenuation and scattering that might occur. The materials in each layer and the associated parameters are selected from probability distributions that span the

  15. Dynamic Statistical Models for Pyroclastic Density Current Generation at Soufrière Hills Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, Robert L.; Spiller, Elaine T.; Calder, Eliza S.

    2018-05-01

    To mitigate volcanic hazards from pyroclastic density currents, volcanologists generate hazard maps that provide long-term forecasts of areas of potential impact. Several recent efforts in the field develop new statistical methods for application of flow models to generate fully probabilistic hazard maps that both account for, and quantify, uncertainty. However a limitation to the use of most statistical hazard models, and a key source of uncertainty within them, is the time-averaged nature of the datasets by which the volcanic activity is statistically characterized. Where the level, or directionality, of volcanic activity frequently changes, e.g. during protracted eruptive episodes, or at volcanoes that are classified as persistently active, it is not appropriate to make short term forecasts based on longer time-averaged metrics of the activity. Thus, here we build, fit and explore dynamic statistical models for the generation of pyroclastic density current from Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) on Montserrat including their respective collapse direction and flow volumes based on 1996-2008 flow datasets. The development of this approach allows for short-term behavioral changes to be taken into account in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments. We show that collapses from the SHV lava dome follow a clear pattern, and that a series of smaller flows in a given direction often culminate in a larger collapse and thereafter directionality of the flows change. Such models enable short term forecasting (weeks to months) that can reflect evolving conditions such as dome and crater morphology changes and non-stationary eruptive behavior such as extrusion rate variations. For example, the probability of inundation of the Belham Valley in the first 180 days of a forecast period is about twice as high for lava domes facing Northwest toward that valley as it is for domes pointing East toward the Tar River Valley. As rich multi-parametric volcano monitoring dataset become

  16. Predicting tube repair at French nuclear steam generators using statistical modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathon, C., E-mail: cedric.mathon@edf.fr [EDF Generation, Basic Design Department (SEPTEN), 69628 Villeurbanne (France); Chaudhary, A. [EDF Generation, Basic Design Department (SEPTEN), 69628 Villeurbanne (France); Gay, N.; Pitner, P. [EDF Generation, Nuclear Operation Division (UNIE), Saint-Denis (France)

    2014-04-01

    Electricité de France (EDF) currently operates a total of 58 Nuclear Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) which are composed of 34 units of 900 MWe, 20 units of 1300 MWe and 4 units of 1450 MWe. This report provides an overall status of SG tube bundles on the 1300 MWe units. These units are 4 loop reactors using the AREVA 68/19 type SG model which are equipped either with Alloy 600 thermally treated (TT) tubes or Alloy 690 TT tubes. As of 2011, the effective full power years of operation (EFPY) ranges from 13 to 20 and during this time, the main degradation mechanisms observed on SG tubes are primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) and wear at anti-vibration bars (AVB) level. Statistical models have been developed for each type of degradation in order to predict the growth rate and number of affected tubes. Additional plugging is also performed to prevent other degradations such as tube wear due to foreign objects or high-cycle flow-induced fatigue. The contribution of these degradation mechanisms on the rate of tube plugging is described. The results from the statistical models are then used in predicting the long-term life of the steam generators and therefore providing a useful tool toward their effective life management and possible replacement.

  17. Automatic generation of 3D statistical shape models with optimal landmark distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimann, T; Wolf, I; Meinzer, H-P

    2007-01-01

    To point out the problem of non-uniform landmark placement in statistical shape modeling, to present an improved method for generating landmarks in the 3D case and to propose an unbiased evaluation metric to determine model quality. Our approach minimizes a cost function based on the minimum description length (MDL) of the shape model to optimize landmark correspondences over the training set. In addition to the standard technique, we employ an extended remeshing method to change the landmark distribution without losing correspondences, thus ensuring a uniform distribution over all training samples. To break the dependency of the established evaluation measures generalization and specificity from the landmark distribution, we change the internal metric from landmark distance to volumetric overlap. Redistributing landmarks to an equally spaced distribution during the model construction phase improves the quality of the resulting models significantly if the shapes feature prominent bulges or other complex geometry. The distribution of landmarks on the training shapes is -- beyond the correspondence issue -- a crucial point in model construction.

  18. Power generation statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kangas, H.

    2001-01-01

    The frost in February increased the power demand in Finland significantly. The total power consumption in Finland during January-February 2001 was about 4% higher than a year before. In January 2001 the average temperature in Finland was only about - 4 deg C, which is nearly 2 degrees higher than in 2000 and about 6 degrees higher than long term average. Power demand in January was slightly less than 7.9 TWh, being about 0.5% less than in 2000. The power consumption in Finland during the past 12 months exceeded 79.3 TWh, which is less than 2% higher than during the previous 12 months. In February 2001 the average temperature was - 10 deg C, which was about 5 degrees lower than in February 2000. Because of this the power consumption in February 2001 increased by 5%. Power consumption in February was 7.5 TWh. The maximum hourly output of power plants in Finland was 13310 MW. Power consumption of Finnish households in February 2001 was about 10% higher than in February 2000, and in industry the increase was nearly zero. The utilization rate in forest industry in February 2001 decreased from the value of February 2000 by 5%, being only about 89%. The power consumption of the past 12 months (Feb. 2000 - Feb. 2001) was 79.6 TWh. Generation of hydroelectric power in Finland during January - February 2001 was 10% higher than a year before. The generation of hydroelectric power in Jan. - Feb. 2001 was nearly 2.7 TWh, corresponding to 17% of the power demand in Finland. The output of hydroelectric power in Finland during the past 12 months was 14.7 TWh. The increase from the previous 12 months was 17% corresponding to over 18% of the power demand in Finland. Wind power generation in Jan. - Feb. 2001 was exceeded slightly 10 GWh, while in 2000 the corresponding output was 20 GWh. The degree of utilization of Finnish nuclear power plants in Jan. - Feb. 2001 was high. The output of these plants was 3.8 TWh, being about 1% less than in Jan. - Feb. 2000. The main cause for the

  19. Substorm associated radar auroral surges: a statistical study and possible generation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Shand

    Full Text Available Substorm-associated radar auroral surges (SARAS are a short lived (15–90 minutes and spatially localised (~5° of latitude perturbation of the plasma convection pattern observed within the auroral E-region. The understanding of such phenomena has important ramifications for the investigation of the larger scale plasma convection and ultimately the coupling of the solar wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere system. A statistical investigation is undertaken of SARAS, observed by the Sweden And Britain Radar Experiment (SABRE, in order to provide a more extensive examination of the local time occurrence and propagation characteristics of the events. The statistical analysis has determined a local time occurrence of observations between 1420 MLT and 2200 MLT with a maximum occurrence centred around 1700 MLT. The propagation velocity of the SARAS feature through the SABRE field of view was found to be predominately L-shell aligned with a velocity centred around 1750 m s–1 and within the range 500 m s–1 and 3500 m s–1. This comprehensive examination of the SARAS provides the opportunity to discuss, qualitatively, a possible generation mechanism for SARAS based on a proposed model for the production of a similar phenomenon referred to as sub-auroral ion drifts (SAIDs. The results of the comparison suggests that SARAS may result from a similar geophysical mechanism to that which produces SAID events, but probably occurs at a different time in the evolution of the event.

    Key words. Substorms · Auroral surges · Plasma con-vection · Sub-auroral ion drifts

  20. Using student models to generate feedback in a university course on statistical sampling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tacoma, S.G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411923080; Drijvers, P.H.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074302922; Boon, P.B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/203374207

    2017-01-01

    Due to the complexity of the topic and a lack of individual guidance, introductory statistics courses at university are often challenging. Automated feedback might help to address this issue. In this study, we explore the use of student models to provide feedback. The research question is how

  1. A Statistical Model for Hourly Large-Scale Wind and Photovoltaic Generation in New Locations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekstrom, Jussi; Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Mellin, Ilkka

    2017-01-01

    The analysis of large-scale wind and photovoltaic (PV) energy generation is of vital importance in power systems where their penetration is high. This paper presents a modular methodology to assess the power generation and volatility of a system consisting of both PV plants (PVPs) and wind power...... of new PVPs and WPPs in system planning. The model is verified against hourly measured wind speed and solar irradiance data from Finland. A case study assessing the impact of the geographical distribution of the PVPs and WPPs on aggregate power generation and its variability is presented....

  2. Statistical prediction of AVB wear growth and initiation in model F steam generator tubes using Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jae Bong; Park, Jae Hak; Kim, Hong Deok; Chung, Han Sub; Kim, Tae Ryong

    2005-01-01

    The growth of AVB wear in Model F steam generator tubes is predicted using the Monte Carlo Method and statistical approaches. The statistical parameters that represent the characteristics of wear growth and wear initiation are derived from In-Service Inspection (ISI) Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) data. Based on the statistical approaches, wear growth model are proposed and applied to predict wear distribution at the End Of Cycle (EOC). Probabilistic distributions of the number of wear flaws and maximum wear depth at EOC are obtained from the analysis. Comparing the predicted EOC wear flaw data with the known EOC data the usefulness of the proposed method is examined and satisfactory results are obtained

  3. Statistical prediction of AVB wear growth and initiation in model F steam generator tubes using Monte Carlo method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jae Bong; Park, Jae Hak [Chungbuk National Univ., Cheongju (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hong Deok; Chung, Han Sub; Kim, Tae Ryong [Korea Electtric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    The growth of AVB wear in Model F steam generator tubes is predicted using the Monte Carlo Method and statistical approaches. The statistical parameters that represent the characteristics of wear growth and wear initiation are derived from In-Service Inspection (ISI) Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) data. Based on the statistical approaches, wear growth model are proposed and applied to predict wear distribution at the End Of Cycle (EOC). Probabilistic distributions of the number of wear flaws and maximum wear depth at EOC are obtained from the analysis. Comparing the predicted EOC wear flaw data with the known EOC data the usefulness of the proposed method is examined and satisfactory results are obtained.

  4. A practical model-based statistical approach for generating functional test cases: application in the automotive industry

    OpenAIRE

    Awédikian , Roy; Yannou , Bernard

    2012-01-01

    International audience; With the growing complexity of industrial software applications, industrials are looking for efficient and practical methods to validate the software. This paper develops a model-based statistical testing approach that automatically generates online and offline test cases for embedded software. It discusses an integrated framework that combines solutions for three major software testing research questions: (i) how to select test inputs; (ii) how to predict the expected...

  5. Diffeomorphic Statistical Deformation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Sass; Hansen, Mads/Fogtman; Larsen, Rasmus

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present a new method for constructing diffeomorphic statistical deformation models in arbitrary dimensional images with a nonlinear generative model and a linear parameter space. Our deformation model is a modified version of the diffeomorphic model introduced by Cootes et al....... The modifications ensure that no boundary restriction has to be enforced on the parameter space to prevent folds or tears in the deformation field. For straightforward statistical analysis, principal component analysis and sparse methods, we assume that the parameters for a class of deformations lie on a linear...... with ground truth in form of manual expert annotations, and compared to Cootes's model. We anticipate applications in unconstrained diffeomorphic synthesis of images, e.g. for tracking, segmentation, registration or classification purposes....

  6. AutoBayes: A System for Generating Data Analysis Programs from Statistical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Bernd; Schumann, Johann

    2003-01-01

    Data analysis is an important scientific task which is required whenever information needs to be extracted from raw data. Statistical approaches to data analysis, which use methods from probability theory and numerical analysis, are well-founded but dificult to implement: the development of a statistical data analysis program for any given application is time-consuming and requires substantial knowledge and experience in several areas. In this paper, we describe AutoBayes, a program synthesis...

  7. The Statistical Segment Length of DNA: Opportunities for Biomechanical Modeling in Polymer Physics and Next-Generation Genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorfman, Kevin D

    2018-02-01

    The development of bright bisintercalating dyes for deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in the 1990s, most notably YOYO-1, revolutionized the field of polymer physics in the ensuing years. These dyes, in conjunction with modern molecular biology techniques, permit the facile observation of polymer dynamics via fluorescence microscopy and thus direct tests of different theories of polymer dynamics. At the same time, they have played a key role in advancing an emerging next-generation method known as genome mapping in nanochannels. The effect of intercalation on the bending energy of DNA as embodied by a change in its statistical segment length (or, alternatively, its persistence length) has been the subject of significant controversy. The precise value of the statistical segment length is critical for the proper interpretation of polymer physics experiments and controls the phenomena underlying the aforementioned genomics technology. In this perspective, we briefly review the model of DNA as a wormlike chain and a trio of methods (light scattering, optical or magnetic tweezers, and atomic force microscopy (AFM)) that have been used to determine the statistical segment length of DNA. We then outline the disagreement in the literature over the role of bisintercalation on the bending energy of DNA, and how a multiscale biomechanical approach could provide an important model for this scientifically and technologically relevant problem.

  8. Statistical modelling and optimization of hydrolysis of urea to generate ammonia for flue gas conditioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahalik, K.; Sahu, J.N.; Patwardhan, Anand V.; Meikap, B.C.

    2010-01-01

    The present study is concerned with the technique of producing a relatively small quantity of ammonia which can be used safely in a coal-fired thermal power plant to improve the efficiency of electrostatic precipitator by removing the suspended particulate material mostly fly ash, from the flue gas. In this work hydrolysis of urea has been conducted in a batch reactor at atmospheric pressure to study the different reaction variables such as reaction temperature, initial concentration and stirring speed on the conversion by using design expert software. A 2 3 full factorial central composite design (CCD) has been employed and a quadratic model equation has been developed. The study reveals that conversion increases exponentially with an increase in temperature, stirring speed and feed concentration. However the stirring speed has the greatest effect on the conversion with concentration and temperature exerting least and moderate effect respectively. The values of equilibrium conversion obtained through the developed models are found to agree well with their corresponding experimental counterparts with a satisfactory correlation coefficient of 93%. The developed quadratic model was optimized using quadratic programming to maximize conversion of urea within experimental range studied. The optimum production condition has been found to be at the temperature of 130 o C, feed concentration of 4.16 mol/l and stirring speed of 400 rpm and the corresponding conversion, 63.242%.

  9. Generation of a statistical shape model with probabilistic point correspondences and the expectation maximization- iterative closest point algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hufnagel, Heike; Pennec, Xavier; Ayache, Nicholas; Ehrhardt, Jan; Handels, Heinz

    2008-01-01

    . The novel algorithm for building a generative statistical shape model (gSSM) does not need one-to-one point correspondences but relies solely on point correspondence probabilities for the computation of mean shape and eigenmodes. It is well-suited for shape analysis on unstructured point sets. (orig.)

  10. Analysis of relationship between registration performance of point cloud statistical model and generation method of corresponding points

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaoka, Naoto; Watanabe, Wataru; Hontani, Hidekata

    2010-01-01

    Most of the time when we construct statistical point cloud model, we need to calculate the corresponding points. Constructed statistical model will not be the same if we use different types of method to calculate the corresponding points. This article proposes the effect to statistical model of human organ made by different types of method to calculate the corresponding points. We validated the performance of statistical model by registering a surface of an organ in a 3D medical image. We compare two methods to calculate corresponding points. The first, the 'Generalized Multi-Dimensional Scaling (GMDS)', determines the corresponding points by the shapes of two curved surfaces. The second approach, the 'Entropy-based Particle system', chooses corresponding points by calculating a number of curved surfaces statistically. By these methods we construct the statistical models and using these models we conducted registration with the medical image. For the estimation, we use non-parametric belief propagation and this method estimates not only the position of the organ but also the probability density of the organ position. We evaluate how the two different types of method that calculates corresponding points affects the statistical model by change in probability density of each points. (author)

  11. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  12. Multiscale representation of generating and correlation functions for some models of statistical mechanics and quantum field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Carroll, M.

    1993-01-01

    The author considers models of statistical mechanics and quantum field theory (in the Euclidean formulation) which are treated using renormalization group methods and where the action is a small perturbation of a quadratic action. The author obtains multiscale formulas for the generating and correlation functions after n renormalization group transformations which bring out the relation with the nth effective action. The author derives and compares the formulas for different RGs. The formulas for correlation functions involve (1) two propagators which are determined by a sequence of approximate wave function renormalization constants and renormalization group operators associated with the decomposition into scales of the quadratic form and (2) field derivatives of the nth effective action. For the case of the block field open-quotes δ-functionclose quotes RG the formulas are especially simple and for asymptotic free theories only the derivatives at zero field are needed; the formulas have been previously used directly to obtain bounds on correlation functions using information obtained from the analysis of effective actions. The simplicity can be traced to an open-quotes orthogonality-of-scalesclose quotes property which follows from an implicit wavelet structure. Other commonly used RGs do not have the open-quotes orthogonality of scalesclose quotes property. 19 refs

  13. Simulating secondary organic aerosol in a regional air quality model using the statistical oxidation model - Part 1: Assessing the influence of constrained multi-generational ageing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jathar, S. H.; Cappa, C. D.; Wexler, A. S.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Kleeman, M. J.

    2016-02-01

    Multi-generational oxidation of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation products can significantly alter the mass, chemical composition and properties of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) compared to calculations that consider only the first few generations of oxidation reactions. However, the most commonly used state-of-the-science schemes in 3-D regional or global models that account for multi-generational oxidation (1) consider only functionalization reactions but do not consider fragmentation reactions, (2) have not been constrained to experimental data and (3) are added on top of existing parameterizations. The incomplete description of multi-generational oxidation in these models has the potential to bias source apportionment and control calculations for SOA. In this work, we used the statistical oxidation model (SOM) of Cappa and Wilson (2012), constrained by experimental laboratory chamber data, to evaluate the regional implications of multi-generational oxidation considering both functionalization and fragmentation reactions. SOM was implemented into the regional University of California at Davis / California Institute of Technology (UCD/CIT) air quality model and applied to air quality episodes in California and the eastern USA. The mass, composition and properties of SOA predicted using SOM were compared to SOA predictions generated by a traditional two-product model to fully investigate the impact of explicit and self-consistent accounting of multi-generational oxidation.Results show that SOA mass concentrations predicted by the UCD/CIT-SOM model are very similar to those predicted by a two-product model when both models use parameters that are derived from the same chamber data. Since the two-product model does not explicitly resolve multi-generational oxidation reactions, this finding suggests that the chamber data used to parameterize the models captures the majority of the SOA mass formation from multi-generational oxidation under the conditions

  14. Tropical geometry of statistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

    2004-11-16

    This article presents a unified mathematical framework for inference in graphical models, building on the observation that graphical models are algebraic varieties. From this geometric viewpoint, observations generated from a model are coordinates of a point in the variety, and the sum-product algorithm is an efficient tool for evaluating specific coordinates. Here, we address the question of how the solutions to various inference problems depend on the model parameters. The proposed answer is expressed in terms of tropical algebraic geometry. The Newton polytope of a statistical model plays a key role. Our results are applied to the hidden Markov model and the general Markov model on a binary tree.

  15. Using Microsoft Excel to Generate Usage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spellman, Rosemary

    2011-01-01

    At the Libraries Service Center, statistics are generated on a monthly, quarterly, and yearly basis by using four Microsoft Excel workbooks. These statistics provide information about what materials are being requested and by whom. They also give details about why certain requests may not have been filled. Utilizing Excel allows for a shallower…

  16. Improved model for statistical alignment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miklos, I.; Toroczkai, Z. (Zoltan)

    2001-01-01

    The statistical approach to molecular sequence evolution involves the stochastic modeling of the substitution, insertion and deletion processes. Substitution has been modeled in a reliable way for more than three decades by using finite Markov-processes. Insertion and deletion, however, seem to be more difficult to model, and thc recent approaches cannot acceptably deal with multiple insertions and deletions. A new method based on a generating function approach is introduced to describe the multiple insertion process. The presented algorithm computes the approximate joint probability of two sequences in 0(13) running time where 1 is the geometric mean of the sequence lengths.

  17. First-Generation Transgenic Plants and Statistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nap, Jan-Peter; Keizer, Paul; Jansen, Ritsert

    1993-01-01

    The statistical analyses of populations of first-generation transgenic plants are commonly based on mean and variance and generally require a test of normality. Since in many cases the assumptions of normality are not met, analyses can result in erroneous conclusions. Transformation of data to

  18. Statistical analysis of next generation sequencing data

    CERN Document Server

    Nettleton, Dan

    2014-01-01

    Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) is the latest high throughput technology to revolutionize genomic research. NGS generates massive genomic datasets that play a key role in the big data phenomenon that surrounds us today. To extract signals from high-dimensional NGS data and make valid statistical inferences and predictions, novel data analytic and statistical techniques are needed. This book contains 20 chapters written by prominent statisticians working with NGS data. The topics range from basic preprocessing and analysis with NGS data to more complex genomic applications such as copy number variation and isoform expression detection. Research statisticians who want to learn about this growing and exciting area will find this book useful. In addition, many chapters from this book could be included in graduate-level classes in statistical bioinformatics for training future biostatisticians who will be expected to deal with genomic data in basic biomedical research, genomic clinical trials and personalized med...

  19. A comparative study of two statistical approaches for the analysis of real seismicity sequences and synthetic seismicity generated by a stick-slip experimental model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Marquez, Leticia Elsa; Ramirez Rojaz, Alejandro; Telesca, Luciano

    2015-04-01

    The study of two statistical approaches is analyzed for two different types of data sets, one is the seismicity generated by the subduction processes occurred at south Pacific coast of Mexico between 2005 and 2012, and the other corresponds to the synthetic seismic data generated by a stick-slip experimental model. The statistical methods used for the present study are the visibility graph in order to investigate the time dynamics of the series and the scaled probability density function in the natural time domain to investigate the critical order of the system. This comparison has the purpose to show the similarities between the dynamical behaviors of both types of data sets, from the point of view of critical systems. The observed behaviors allow us to conclude that the experimental set up globally reproduces the behavior observed in the statistical approaches used to analyses the seismicity of the subduction zone. The present study was supported by the Bilateral Project Italy-Mexico Experimental Stick-slip models of tectonic faults: innovative statistical approaches applied to synthetic seismic sequences, jointly funded by MAECI (Italy) and AMEXCID (Mexico) in the framework of the Bilateral Agreement for Scientific and Technological Cooperation PE 2014-2016.

  20. Software Used to Generate Cancer Statistics - SEER Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Videos that highlight topics and trends in cancer statistics and definitions of statistical terms. Also software tools for analyzing and reporting cancer statistics, which are used to compile SEER's annual reports.

  1. Exclusion statistics and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashkevich, S.

    1998-01-01

    The definition of exclusion statistics, as given by Haldane, allows for a statistical interaction between distinguishable particles (multi-species statistics). The thermodynamic quantities for such statistics ca be evaluated exactly. The explicit expressions for the cluster coefficients are presented. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence onto the higher-dimensional and the multi-species cases remain essentially open

  2. Regression and statistical shape model based substitute CT generation for MRI alone external beam radiation therapy from standard clinical MRI sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghose, Soumya; Greer, Peter B.; Sun, Jidi; Pichler, Peter; Rivest-Henault, David; Mitra, Jhimli; Richardson, Haylea; Wratten, Chris; Martin, Jarad; Arm, Jameen; Best, Leah; Dowling, Jason A.

    2017-11-01

    In MR only radiation therapy planning, generation of the tissue specific HU map directly from the MRI would eliminate the need of CT image acquisition and may improve radiation therapy planning. The aim of this work is to generate and validate substitute CT (sCT) scans generated from standard T2 weighted MR pelvic scans in prostate radiation therapy dose planning. A Siemens Skyra 3T MRI scanner with laser bridge, flat couch and pelvic coil mounts was used to scan 39 patients scheduled for external beam radiation therapy for localized prostate cancer. For sCT generation a whole pelvis MRI (1.6 mm 3D isotropic T2w SPACE sequence) was acquired. Patients received a routine planning CT scan. Co-registered whole pelvis CT and T2w MRI pairs were used as training images. Advanced tissue specific non-linear regression models to predict HU for the fat, muscle, bladder and air were created from co-registered CT-MRI image pairs. On a test case T2w MRI, the bones and bladder were automatically segmented using a novel statistical shape and appearance model, while other soft tissues were separated using an Expectation-Maximization based clustering model. The CT bone in the training database that was most ‘similar’ to the segmented bone was then transformed with deformable registration to create the sCT component of the test case T2w MRI bone tissue. Predictions for the bone, air and soft tissue from the separate regression models were successively combined to generate a whole pelvis sCT. The change in monitor units between the sCT-based plans relative to the gold standard CT plan for the same IMRT dose plan was found to be 0.3%+/-0.9% (mean  ±  standard deviation) for 39 patients. The 3D Gamma pass rate was 99.8+/-0.00 (2 mm/2%). The novel hybrid model is computationally efficient, generating an sCT in 20 min from standard T2w images for prostate cancer radiation therapy dose planning and DRR generation.

  3. Exclusion statistics and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashkevich, S.

    1998-01-01

    The definition of exclusion statistics that was given by Haldane admits a 'statistical interaction' between distinguishable particles (multispecies statistics). For such statistics, thermodynamic quantities can be evaluated exactly; explicit expressions are presented here for cluster coefficients. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models of the Calogero-Sutherland type. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence to the higher-dimensional and the multispecies cases remain essentially open; however, our results provide some hints as to searches for the models in question

  4. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2004-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...... are consistent, given the inevitabel uncertainties associated with model as well as with the extreme value data analysis. Keywords: Statistical model, extreme wind conditions, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, wind shear, wind turbines....

  5. Statistical modeling for degradation data

    CERN Document Server

    Lio, Yuhlong; Ng, Hon; Tsai, Tzong-Ru

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on the statistical aspects of the analysis of degradation data. In recent years, degradation data analysis has come to play an increasingly important role in different disciplines such as reliability, public health sciences, and finance. For example, information on products’ reliability can be obtained by analyzing degradation data. In addition, statistical modeling and inference techniques have been developed on the basis of different degradation measures. The book brings together experts engaged in statistical modeling and inference, presenting and discussing important recent advances in degradation data analysis and related applications. The topics covered are timely and have considerable potential to impact both statistics and reliability engineering.

  6. Statistical modelling with quantile functions

    CERN Document Server

    Gilchrist, Warren

    2000-01-01

    Galton used quantiles more than a hundred years ago in describing data. Tukey and Parzen used them in the 60s and 70s in describing populations. Since then, the authors of many papers, both theoretical and practical, have used various aspects of quantiles in their work. Until now, however, no one put all the ideas together to form what turns out to be a general approach to statistics.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions does just that. It systematically examines the entire process of statistical modelling, starting with using the quantile function to define continuous distributions. The author shows that by using this approach, it becomes possible to develop complex distributional models from simple components. A modelling kit can be developed that applies to the whole model - deterministic and stochastic components - and this kit operates by adding, multiplying, and transforming distributions rather than data.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions adds a new dimension to the practice of stati...

  7. Primordial statistical anisotropy generated at the end of inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokoyama, Shuichiro; Soda, Jiro

    2008-01-01

    We present a new mechanism for generating primordial statistical anisotropy of curvature perturbations. We introduce a vector field which has a non-minimal kinetic term and couples with a waterfall field in a hybrid inflation model. In such a system, the vector field gives fluctuations of the end of inflation and hence induces a subcomponent of curvature perturbations. Since the vector has a preferred direction, the statistical anisotropy could appear in the fluctuations. We present the explicit formula for the statistical anisotropy in the primordial power spectrum and the bispectrum of curvature perturbations. Interestingly, there is the possibility that the statistical anisotropy does not appear in the power spectrum but does appear in the bispectrum. We also find that the statistical anisotropy provides the shape dependence to the bispectrum

  8. Primordial statistical anisotropy generated at the end of inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokoyama, Shuichiro [Department of Physics and Astrophysics, Nagoya University, Aichi 464-8602 (Japan); Soda, Jiro, E-mail: shu@a.phys.nagoya-u.ac.jp, E-mail: jiro@tap.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

    2008-08-15

    We present a new mechanism for generating primordial statistical anisotropy of curvature perturbations. We introduce a vector field which has a non-minimal kinetic term and couples with a waterfall field in a hybrid inflation model. In such a system, the vector field gives fluctuations of the end of inflation and hence induces a subcomponent of curvature perturbations. Since the vector has a preferred direction, the statistical anisotropy could appear in the fluctuations. We present the explicit formula for the statistical anisotropy in the primordial power spectrum and the bispectrum of curvature perturbations. Interestingly, there is the possibility that the statistical anisotropy does not appear in the power spectrum but does appear in the bispectrum. We also find that the statistical anisotropy provides the shape dependence to the bispectrum.

  9. A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosholm, Michael; Staghøj, Jonas; Svarer, Michael

    When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way  across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly  important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present...... duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the  plementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and  case workers....

  10. Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayanan, R.S.

    1991-10-01

    We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)

  11. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2005-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...

  12. Statistical Models for Social Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, Tom A. B.; Cook, KS; Massey, DS

    2011-01-01

    Statistical models for social networks as dependent variables must represent the typical network dependencies between tie variables such as reciprocity, homophily, transitivity, etc. This review first treats models for single (cross-sectionally observed) networks and then for network dynamics. For

  13. Automated statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobson, J.J.

    1992-01-01

    The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) has been completely automated through computer software. The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems is one part of a complete quality control program used by the Remote Analytical Laboratory (RAL) at the ICPP. The quality control program is an integration of automated data input, measurement system calibration, database management, and statistical process control. The quality control program and statistical modeling program meet the guidelines set forth by the American Society for Testing Materials and American National Standards Institute. A statistical model is a set of mathematical equations describing any systematic bias inherent in a measurement system and the precision of a measurement system. A statistical model is developed from data generated from the analysis of control standards. Control standards are samples which are made up at precise known levels by an independent laboratory and submitted to the RAL. The RAL analysts who process control standards do not know the values of those control standards. The object behind statistical modeling is to describe real process samples in terms of their bias and precision and, to verify that a measurement system is operating satisfactorily. The processing of control standards gives us this ability

  14. Sensometrics: Thurstonian and Statistical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen

    . sensR is a package for sensory discrimination testing with Thurstonian models and ordinal supports analysis of ordinal data with cumulative link (mixed) models. While sensR is closely connected to the sensometrics field, the ordinal package has developed into a generic statistical package applicable......This thesis is concerned with the development and bridging of Thurstonian and statistical models for sensory discrimination testing as applied in the scientific discipline of sensometrics. In sensory discrimination testing sensory differences between products are detected and quantified by the use...... and sensory discrimination testing in particular in a series of papers by advancing Thurstonian models for a range of sensory discrimination protocols in addition to facilitating their application by providing software for fitting these models. The main focus is on identifying Thurstonian models...

  15. Classical model of intermediate statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaniadakis, G.

    1994-01-01

    In this work we present a classical kinetic model of intermediate statistics. In the case of Brownian particles we show that the Fermi-Dirac (FD) and Bose-Einstein (BE) distributions can be obtained, just as the Maxwell-Boltzmann (MD) distribution, as steady states of a classical kinetic equation that intrinsically takes into account an exclusion-inclusion principle. In our model the intermediate statistics are obtained as steady states of a system of coupled nonlinear kinetic equations, where the coupling constants are the transmutational potentials η κκ' . We show that, besides the FD-BE intermediate statistics extensively studied from the quantum point of view, we can also study the MB-FD and MB-BE ones. Moreover, our model allows us to treat the three-state mixing FD-MB-BE intermediate statistics. For boson and fermion mixing in a D-dimensional space, we obtain a family of FD-BE intermediate statistics by varying the transmutational potential η BF . This family contains, as a particular case when η BF =0, the quantum statistics recently proposed by L. Wu, Z. Wu, and J. Sun [Phys. Lett. A 170, 280 (1992)]. When we consider the two-dimensional FD-BE statistics, we derive an analytic expression of the fraction of fermions. When the temperature T→∞, the system is composed by an equal number of bosons and fermions, regardless of the value of η BF . On the contrary, when T=0, η BF becomes important and, according to its value, the system can be completely bosonic or fermionic, or composed both by bosons and fermions

  16. Textual information access statistical models

    CERN Document Server

    Gaussier, Eric

    2013-01-01

    This book presents statistical models that have recently been developed within several research communities to access information contained in text collections. The problems considered are linked to applications aiming at facilitating information access:- information extraction and retrieval;- text classification and clustering;- opinion mining;- comprehension aids (automatic summarization, machine translation, visualization).In order to give the reader as complete a description as possible, the focus is placed on the probability models used in the applications

  17. Statistical Compression for Climate Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerling, D.; Guinness, J.; Soh, Y. J.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical climate model simulations run at high spatial and temporal resolutions generate massive quantities of data. As our computing capabilities continue to increase, storing all of the data is not sustainable, and thus is it important to develop methods for representing the full datasets by smaller compressed versions. We propose a statistical compression and decompression algorithm based on storing a set of summary statistics as well as a statistical model describing the conditional distribution of the full dataset given the summary statistics. We decompress the data by computing conditional expectations and conditional simulations from the model given the summary statistics. Conditional expectations represent our best estimate of the original data but are subject to oversmoothing in space and time. Conditional simulations introduce realistic small-scale noise so that the decompressed fields are neither too smooth nor too rough compared with the original data. Considerable attention is paid to accurately modeling the original dataset-one year of daily mean temperature data-particularly with regard to the inherent spatial nonstationarity in global fields, and to determining the statistics to be stored, so that the variation in the original data can be closely captured, while allowing for fast decompression and conditional emulation on modest computers.

  18. Active Learning with Statistical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-01-01

    Active Learning with Statistical Models ASC-9217041, NSF CDA-9309300 6. AUTHOR(S) David A. Cohn, Zoubin Ghahramani, and Michael I. Jordan 7. PERFORMING...TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES Al, MIT, Artificial Intelligence, active learning , queries, locally weighted 6 regression, LOESS, mixtures of gaussians...COMPUTATIONAL LEARNING DEPARTMENT OF BRAIN AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES A.I. Memo No. 1522 January 9. 1995 C.B.C.L. Paper No. 110 Active Learning with

  19. Simulating secondary organic aerosol in a regional air quality model using the statistical oxidation model – Part 1: Assessing the influence of constrained multi-generational ageing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Jathar

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Multi-generational oxidation of volatile organic compound (VOC oxidation products can significantly alter the mass, chemical composition and properties of secondary organic aerosol (SOA compared to calculations that consider only the first few generations of oxidation reactions. However, the most commonly used state-of-the-science schemes in 3-D regional or global models that account for multi-generational oxidation (1 consider only functionalization reactions but do not consider fragmentation reactions, (2 have not been constrained to experimental data and (3 are added on top of existing parameterizations. The incomplete description of multi-generational oxidation in these models has the potential to bias source apportionment and control calculations for SOA. In this work, we used the statistical oxidation model (SOM of Cappa and Wilson (2012, constrained by experimental laboratory chamber data, to evaluate the regional implications of multi-generational oxidation considering both functionalization and fragmentation reactions. SOM was implemented into the regional University of California at Davis / California Institute of Technology (UCD/CIT air quality model and applied to air quality episodes in California and the eastern USA. The mass, composition and properties of SOA predicted using SOM were compared to SOA predictions generated by a traditional two-product model to fully investigate the impact of explicit and self-consistent accounting of multi-generational oxidation.Results show that SOA mass concentrations predicted by the UCD/CIT-SOM model are very similar to those predicted by a two-product model when both models use parameters that are derived from the same chamber data. Since the two-product model does not explicitly resolve multi-generational oxidation reactions, this finding suggests that the chamber data used to parameterize the models captures the majority of the SOA mass formation from multi-generational oxidation under

  20. Quantum Statistical Testing of a Quantum Random Number Generator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Humble, Travis S [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    The unobservable elements in a quantum technology, e.g., the quantum state, complicate system verification against promised behavior. Using model-based system engineering, we present methods for verifying the opera- tion of a prototypical quantum random number generator. We begin with the algorithmic design of the QRNG followed by the synthesis of its physical design requirements. We next discuss how quantum statistical testing can be used to verify device behavior as well as detect device bias. We conclude by highlighting how system design and verification methods must influence effort to certify future quantum technologies.

  1. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  2. GIGMF - A statistical model program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladuca, G.; Deberth, C.

    1978-01-01

    The program GIGMF computes the differential and integrated statistical model cross sections for the reactions proceeding through a compound nuclear stage. The computational method is based on the Hauser-Feshbach-Wolfenstein theory, modified to include the modern version of Tepel et al. Although the program was written for a PDP-15 computer, with 16K high speed memory, many reaction channels can be taken into account with the following restrictions: the pro ectile spin must be less than 2, the maximum spin momenta of the compound nucleus can not be greater than 10. These restrictions are due solely to the storage allotments and may be easily relaxed. The energy of the impinging particle, the target and projectile masses, the spin and paritjes of the projectile, target, emergent and residual nuclei the maximum orbital momentum and transmission coefficients for each reaction channel are the input parameters of the program. (author)

  3. Auxiliary Deep Generative Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maaløe, Lars; Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Sønderby, Søren Kaae

    2016-01-01

    Deep generative models parameterized by neural networks have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. We extend deep generative models with auxiliary variables which improves the variational approximation. The auxiliary variables leave...... the generative model unchanged but make the variational distribution more expressive. Inspired by the structure of the auxiliary variable we also propose a model with two stochastic layers and skip connections. Our findings suggest that more expressive and properly specified deep generative models converge...... faster with better results. We show state-of-the-art performance within semi-supervised learning on MNIST (0.96%), SVHN (16.61%) and NORB (9.40%) datasets....

  4. Statistical modeling of Earth's plasmasphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veibell, Victoir

    The behavior of plasma near Earth's geosynchronous orbit is of vital importance to both satellite operators and magnetosphere modelers because it also has a significant influence on energy transport, ion composition, and induced currents. The system is highly complex in both time and space, making the forecasting of extreme space weather events difficult. This dissertation examines the behavior and statistical properties of plasma mass density near geosynchronous orbit by using both linear and nonlinear models, as well as epoch analyses, in an attempt to better understand the physical processes that precipitates and drives its variations. It is shown that while equatorial mass density does vary significantly on an hourly timescale when a drop in the disturbance time scale index ( Dst) was observed, it does not vary significantly between the day of a Dst event onset and the day immediately following. It is also shown that increases in equatorial mass density were not, on average, preceded or followed by any significant change in the examined solar wind or geomagnetic variables, including Dst, despite prior results that considered a few selected events and found a notable influence. It is verified that equatorial mass density and and solar activity via the F10.7 index have a strong correlation, which is stronger over longer timescales such as 27 days than it is over an hourly timescale. It is then shown that this connection seems to affect the behavior of equatorial mass density most during periods of strong solar activity leading to large mass density reactions to Dst drops for high values of F10.7. It is also shown that equatorial mass density behaves differently before and after events based on the value of F10.7 at the onset of an equatorial mass density event or a Dst event, and that a southward interplanetary magnetic field at onset leads to slowed mass density growth after event onset. These behavioral differences provide insight into how solar and geomagnetic

  5. Probing NWP model deficiencies by statistical postprocessing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben S.

    2016-01-01

    The objective in this article is twofold. On one hand, a Model Output Statistics (MOS) framework for improved wind speed forecast accuracy is described and evaluated. On the other hand, the approach explored identifies unintuitive explanatory value from a diagnostic variable in an operational....... Based on the statistical model candidates inferred from the data, the lifted index NWP model diagnostic is consistently found among the NWP model predictors of the best performing statistical models across sites....

  6. Statistical Modelling of the Soil Dielectric Constant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usowicz, Boguslaw; Marczewski, Wojciech; Bogdan Usowicz, Jerzy; Lipiec, Jerzy

    2010-05-01

    The dielectric constant of soil is the physical property being very sensitive on water content. It funds several electrical measurement techniques for determining the water content by means of direct (TDR, FDR, and others related to effects of electrical conductance and/or capacitance) and indirect RS (Remote Sensing) methods. The work is devoted to a particular statistical manner of modelling the dielectric constant as the property accounting a wide range of specific soil composition, porosity, and mass density, within the unsaturated water content. Usually, similar models are determined for few particular soil types, and changing the soil type one needs switching the model on another type or to adjust it by parametrization of soil compounds. Therefore, it is difficult comparing and referring results between models. The presented model was developed for a generic representation of soil being a hypothetical mixture of spheres, each representing a soil fraction, in its proper phase state. The model generates a serial-parallel mesh of conductive and capacitive paths, which is analysed for a total conductive or capacitive property. The model was firstly developed to determine the thermal conductivity property, and now it is extended on the dielectric constant by analysing the capacitive mesh. The analysis is provided by statistical means obeying physical laws related to the serial-parallel branching of the representative electrical mesh. Physical relevance of the analysis is established electrically, but the definition of the electrical mesh is controlled statistically by parametrization of compound fractions, by determining the number of representative spheres per unitary volume per fraction, and by determining the number of fractions. That way the model is capable covering properties of nearly all possible soil types, all phase states within recognition of the Lorenz and Knudsen conditions. In effect the model allows on generating a hypothetical representative of

  7. CONFIGURATION GENERATOR MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsaed, A.

    2004-01-01

    ''The Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' prescribes an approach to the methodology for performing postclosure criticality analyses within the monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. An essential component of the methodology is the ''Configuration Generator Model for In-Package Criticality'' that provides a tool to evaluate the probabilities of degraded configurations achieving a critical state. The configuration generator model is a risk-informed, performance-based process for evaluating the criticality potential of degraded configurations in the monitored geologic repository. The method uses event tree methods to define configuration classes derived from criticality scenarios and to identify configuration class characteristics (parameters, ranges, etc.). The probabilities of achieving the various configuration classes are derived in part from probability density functions for degradation parameters. The NRC has issued ''Safety Evaluation Report for Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report, Revision 0''. That report contained 28 open items that required resolution through additional documentation. Of the 28 open items, numbers 5, 6, 9, 10, 18, and 19 were concerned with a previously proposed software approach to the configuration generator methodology and, in particular, the k eff regression analysis associated with the methodology. However, the use of a k eff regression analysis is not part of the current configuration generator methodology and, thus, the referenced open items are no longer considered applicable and will not be further addressed

  8. Statistical modelling of fish stocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine

    1999-01-01

    for modelling the dynamics of a fish population is suggested. A new approach is introduced to analyse the sources of variation in age composition data, which is one of the most important sources of information in the cohort based models for estimation of stock abundancies and mortalities. The approach combines...... and it is argued that an approach utilising stochastic differential equations might be advantagous in fish stoch assessments....

  9. Statistical lung model for microdosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.; Hadley, R.T.

    1984-03-01

    To calculate the microdosimetry of plutonium in the lung, a mathematical description is needed of lung tissue microstructure that defines source-site parameters. Beagle lungs were expanded using a glutaraldehyde fixative at 30 cm water pressure. Tissue specimens, five microns thick, were stained with hematoxylin and eosin then studied using an image analyzer. Measurements were made along horizontal lines through the magnified tissue image. The distribution of air space and tissue chord lengths and locations of epithelial cell nuclei were recorded from about 10,000 line scans. The distribution parameters constituted a model of lung microstructure for predicting the paths of random alpha particle tracks in the lung and the probability of traversing biologically sensitive sites. This lung model may be used in conjunction with established deposition and retention models for determining the microdosimetry in the pulmonary lung for a wide variety of inhaled radioactive materials

  10. Statistical modelling for ship propulsion efficiency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jóan Petur; Jacobsen, Daniel J.; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a state-of-the-art systems approach to statistical modelling of fuel efficiency in ship propulsion, and also a novel and publicly available data set of high quality sensory data. Two statistical model approaches are investigated and compared: artificial neural networks...

  11. Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Beirlant, J.

    2007-01-01

    Over the last decade the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) in actuarial statistics has received a lot of attention, starting from the actuarial illustrations in the standard text by McCullagh and Nelder [McCullagh, P., Nelder, J.A., 1989. Generalized linear models. In: Monographs on Statistics

  12. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

  13. Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data

    CERN Document Server

    Lawless, Jerald F

    2011-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition"An indispensable addition to any serious collection on lifetime data analysis and . . . a valuable contribution to the statistical literature. Highly recommended . . ."-Choice"This is an important book, which will appeal to statisticians working on survival analysis problems."-Biometrics"A thorough, unified treatment of statistical models and methods used in the analysis of lifetime data . . . this is a highly competent and agreeable statistical textbook."-Statistics in MedicineThe statistical analysis of lifetime or response time data is a key tool in engineering,

  14. Statistics and the shell model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidenmueller, H.A.

    1985-01-01

    Starting with N. Bohr's paper on compound-nucleus reactions, we confront regular dynamical features and chaotic motion in nuclei. The shell-model and, more generally, mean-field theories describe average nuclear properties which are thus identified as regular features. The fluctuations about the average show chaotic behaviour of the same type as found in classical chaotic systems upon quantisation. These features are therefore generic and quite independent of the specific dynamics of the nucleus. A novel method to calculate fluctuations is discussed, and the results of this method are described. (orig.)

  15. Advanced data analysis in neuroscience integrating statistical and computational models

    CERN Document Server

    Durstewitz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book is intended for use in advanced graduate courses in statistics / machine learning, as well as for all experimental neuroscientists seeking to understand statistical methods at a deeper level, and theoretical neuroscientists with a limited background in statistics. It reviews almost all areas of applied statistics, from basic statistical estimation and test theory, linear and nonlinear approaches for regression and classification, to model selection and methods for dimensionality reduction, density estimation and unsupervised clustering.  Its focus, however, is linear and nonlinear time series analysis from a dynamical systems perspective, based on which it aims to convey an understanding also of the dynamical mechanisms that could have generated observed time series. Further, it integrates computational modeling of behavioral and neural dynamics with statistical estimation and hypothesis testing. This way computational models in neuroscience are not only explanat ory frameworks, but become powerfu...

  16. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  17. Statistical Model-Based Face Pose Estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GE Xinliang; YANG Jie; LI Feng; WANG Huahua

    2007-01-01

    A robust face pose estimation approach is proposed by using face shape statistical model approach and pose parameters are represented by trigonometric functions. The face shape statistical model is firstly built by analyzing the face shapes from different people under varying poses. The shape alignment is vital in the process of building the statistical model. Then, six trigonometric functions are employed to represent the face pose parameters. Lastly, the mapping function is constructed between face image and face pose by linearly relating different parameters. The proposed approach is able to estimate different face poses using a few face training samples. Experimental results are provided to demonstrate its efficiency and accuracy.

  18. Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Briggs, William

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...

  19. Topology for statistical modeling of petascale data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascucci, Valerio (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Mascarenhas, Ajith Arthur; Rusek, Korben (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Bennett, Janine Camille; Levine, Joshua (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Pebay, Philippe Pierre; Gyulassy, Attila (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Thompson, David C.; Rojas, Joseph Maurice (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX)

    2011-07-01

    This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled 'Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data', funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program. Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is thus to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, our approach is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modeling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modeling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. This document summarizes the technical advances we have made to date that were made possible in whole or in part by MAPD funding. These technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modeling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods.

  20. Statistical modelling of citation exchange between statistics journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varin, Cristiano; Cattelan, Manuela; Firth, David

    2016-01-01

    Rankings of scholarly journals based on citation data are often met with scepticism by the scientific community. Part of the scepticism is due to disparity between the common perception of journals' prestige and their ranking based on citation counts. A more serious concern is the inappropriate use of journal rankings to evaluate the scientific influence of researchers. The paper focuses on analysis of the table of cross-citations among a selection of statistics journals. Data are collected from the Web of Science database published by Thomson Reuters. Our results suggest that modelling the exchange of citations between journals is useful to highlight the most prestigious journals, but also that journal citation data are characterized by considerable heterogeneity, which needs to be properly summarized. Inferential conclusions require care to avoid potential overinterpretation of insignificant differences between journal ratings. Comparison with published ratings of institutions from the UK's research assessment exercise shows strong correlation at aggregate level between assessed research quality and journal citation 'export scores' within the discipline of statistics.

  1. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

  2. Infinite Random Graphs as Statistical Mechanical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durhuus, Bergfinnur Jøgvan; Napolitano, George Maria

    2011-01-01

    We discuss two examples of infinite random graphs obtained as limits of finite statistical mechanical systems: a model of two-dimensional dis-cretized quantum gravity defined in terms of causal triangulated surfaces, and the Ising model on generic random trees. For the former model we describe a ...

  3. Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation: An Efficient Statistical Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wan, Can; Lin, Jin; Song, Yonghua

    2017-01-01

    This letter proposes a novel efficient probabilistic forecasting approach to accurately quantify the variability and uncertainty of the power production from photovoltaic (PV) systems. Distinguished from most existing models, a linear programming based prediction interval construction model for P...... power generation is proposed based on extreme learning machine and quantile regression, featuring high reliability and computational efficiency. The proposed approach is validated through the numerical studies on PV data from Denmark.......This letter proposes a novel efficient probabilistic forecasting approach to accurately quantify the variability and uncertainty of the power production from photovoltaic (PV) systems. Distinguished from most existing models, a linear programming based prediction interval construction model for PV...

  4. Matrix Tricks for Linear Statistical Models

    CERN Document Server

    Puntanen, Simo; Styan, George PH

    2011-01-01

    In teaching linear statistical models to first-year graduate students or to final-year undergraduate students there is no way to proceed smoothly without matrices and related concepts of linear algebra; their use is really essential. Our experience is that making some particular matrix tricks very familiar to students can substantially increase their insight into linear statistical models (and also multivariate statistical analysis). In matrix algebra, there are handy, sometimes even very simple "tricks" which simplify and clarify the treatment of a problem - both for the student and

  5. Statistical physics of pairwise probability models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roudi, Yasser; Aurell, Erik; Hertz, John

    2009-01-01

    (dansk abstrakt findes ikke) Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of  data......: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying...

  6. Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Fortiana, Josep; Rodriguez-Lallena, José

    2002-01-01

    This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the meeting `Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling', held in Barcelona (Spain), July 17-20, 2000. In 24 chapters, this book covers topics such as the theory of copulas and quasi-copulas, the theory and compatibility of distributions, models for survival distributions and other well-known distributions, time series, categorical models, definition and estimation of measures of dependence, monotonicity and stochastic ordering, shape and separability of distributions, hidden truncation models, diagonal families, orthogonal expansions, tests of independence, and goodness of fit assessment. These topics share the use and properties of distributions with given marginals, this being the fourth specialised text on this theme. The innovative aspect of the book is the inclusion of statistical aspects such as modelling, Bayesian statistics, estimation, and tests.

  7. Aspects of statistical model for multifragmentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, P.; Das Gupta, S.; Mekjian, A. Z.

    1999-01-01

    We deal with two different aspects of an exactly soluble statistical model of fragmentation. First we show, using zero range force and finite temperature Thomas-Fermi theory, that a common link can be found between finite temperature mean field theory and the statistical fragmentation model. We show the latter naturally arises in the spinodal region. Next we show that although the exact statistical model is a canonical model and uses temperature, microcanonical results which use constant energy rather than constant temperature can also be obtained from the canonical model using saddle-point approximation. The methodology is extremely simple to implement and at least in all the examples studied in this work is very accurate. (c) 1999 The American Physical Society

  8. Fluctuations of offshore wind generation: Statistical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Christensen, Lasse E.A.; Madsen, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    The magnitude of power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms has a significant impact on the control and management strategies of their power output. If focusing on the minute scale, one observes successive periods with smaller and larger power fluctuations. It seems that different regimes yi...

  9. Performance modeling, loss networks, and statistical multiplexing

    CERN Document Server

    Mazumdar, Ravi

    2009-01-01

    This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the important ideas of Palm distributions associated with traffic models and their role in performance measures. Also presented are recent ideas of large buffer, and many sources asymptotics that play an important role in understanding statistical multiplexing. I

  10. Simple statistical model for branched aggregates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemarchand, Claire; Hansen, Jesper Schmidt

    2015-01-01

    , given that it already has bonds with others. The model is applied here to asphaltene nanoaggregates observed in molecular dynamics simulations of Cooee bitumen. The variation with temperature of the probabilities deduced from this model is discussed in terms of statistical mechanics arguments....... The relevance of the statistical model in the case of asphaltene nanoaggregates is checked by comparing the predicted value of the probability for one molecule to have exactly i bonds with the same probability directly measured in the molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement is satisfactory......We propose a statistical model that can reproduce the size distribution of any branched aggregate, including amylopectin, dendrimers, molecular clusters of monoalcohols, and asphaltene nanoaggregates. It is based on the conditional probability for one molecule to form a new bond with a molecule...

  11. Advances in statistical models for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Minerva, Tommaso; Vichi, Maurizio

    2015-01-01

    This edited volume focuses on recent research results in classification, multivariate statistics and machine learning and highlights advances in statistical models for data analysis. The volume provides both methodological developments and contributions to a wide range of application areas such as economics, marketing, education, social sciences and environment. The papers in this volume were first presented at the 9th biannual meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, held in September 2013 at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy.

  12. Structured statistical models of inductive reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2009-01-01

    Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet both goals and describes [corrected] 4 applications of the framework: a taxonomic model, a spatial model, a threshold model, and a causal model. Each model makes probabilistic inferences about the extensions of novel properties, but the priors for the 4 models are defined over different kinds of structures that capture different relationships between the categories in a domain. The framework therefore shows how statistical inference can operate over structured background knowledge, and the authors argue that this interaction between structure and statistics is critical for explaining the power and flexibility of human reasoning.

  13. Model for neural signaling leap statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevrollier, Martine; Oria, Marcos

    2011-01-01

    We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T 37.5 0 C, awaken regime) and Levy statistics (T = 35.5 0 C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

  14. Model for neural signaling leap statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos

    2011-03-01

    We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T = 37.5°C, awaken regime) and Lévy statistics (T = 35.5°C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

  15. Model for neural signaling leap statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevrollier, Martine; Oria, Marcos, E-mail: oria@otica.ufpb.br [Laboratorio de Fisica Atomica e Lasers Departamento de Fisica, Universidade Federal da ParaIba Caixa Postal 5086 58051-900 Joao Pessoa, Paraiba (Brazil)

    2011-03-01

    We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T 37.5{sup 0}C, awaken regime) and Levy statistics (T = 35.5{sup 0}C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

  16. Growth curve models and statistical diagnostics

    CERN Document Server

    Pan, Jian-Xin

    2002-01-01

    Growth-curve models are generalized multivariate analysis-of-variance models. These models are especially useful for investigating growth problems on short times in economics, biology, medical research, and epidemiology. This book systematically introduces the theory of the GCM with particular emphasis on their multivariate statistical diagnostics, which are based mainly on recent developments made by the authors and their collaborators. The authors provide complete proofs of theorems as well as practical data sets and MATLAB code.

  17. Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Bremer, P. -T. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2013-10-31

    Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, the approach of the entire team involving all three institutions is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modelling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modelling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. The overall technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modelling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods. Roughly speaking, the division of labor between our 3 groups (Sandia Labs in Livermore, Texas A&M in College Station, and U Utah in Salt Lake City) is as follows: the Sandia group focuses on statistical methods and their formulation in algebraic terms, and finds the application problems (and data sets) most relevant to this project, the Texas A&M Group develops new algebraic geometry algorithms, in particular with fewnomial theory, and the Utah group develops new algorithms in computational topology via Discrete Morse Theory. However, we hasten to point out that our three groups stay in tight contact via videconference every 2 weeks, so there is much synergy of ideas between the groups. The following of this document is focused on the contributions that had grater direct involvement from the team at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

  18. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  19. Two-dimensional models in statistical mechanics and field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koberle, R.

    1980-01-01

    Several features of two-dimensional models in statistical mechanics and Field theory, such as, lattice quantum chromodynamics, Z(N), Gross-Neveu and CP N-1 are discussed. The problems of confinement and dynamical mass generation are also analyzed. (L.C.) [pt

  20. Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Mantovan, Pietro

    2010-01-01

    The last years have seen the advent and development of many devices able to record and store an always increasing amount of complex and high dimensional data; 3D images generated by medical scanners or satellite remote sensing, DNA microarrays, real time financial data, system control datasets. The analysis of this data poses new challenging problems and requires the development of novel statistical models and computational methods, fueling many fascinating and fast growing research areas of modern statistics. The book offers a wide variety of statistical methods and is addressed to statistici

  1. Statistical transmutation in doped quantum dimer models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamas, C A; Ralko, A; Cabra, D C; Poilblanc, D; Pujol, P

    2012-07-06

    We prove a "statistical transmutation" symmetry of doped quantum dimer models on the square, triangular, and kagome lattices: the energy spectrum is invariant under a simultaneous change of statistics (i.e., bosonic into fermionic or vice versa) of the holes and of the signs of all the dimer resonance loops. This exact transformation enables us to define the duality equivalence between doped quantum dimer Hamiltonians and provides the analytic framework to analyze dynamical statistical transmutations. We investigate numerically the doping of the triangular quantum dimer model with special focus on the topological Z(2) dimer liquid. Doping leads to four (instead of two for the square lattice) inequivalent families of Hamiltonians. Competition between phase separation, superfluidity, supersolidity, and fermionic phases is investigated in the four families.

  2. STATISTICAL MODELS OF REPRESENTING INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Feraru

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article entitled Statistical Models of Representing Intellectual Capital approaches and analyses the concept of intellectual capital, as well as the main models which can support enterprisers/managers in evaluating and quantifying the advantages of intellectual capital. Most authors examine intellectual capital from a static perspective and focus on the development of its various evaluation models. In this chapter we surveyed the classical static models: Sveiby, Edvisson, Balanced Scorecard, as well as the canonical model of intellectual capital. Among the group of static models for evaluating organisational intellectual capital the canonical model stands out. This model enables the structuring of organisational intellectual capital in: human capital, structural capital and relational capital. Although the model is widely spread, it is a static one and can thus create a series of errors in the process of evaluation, because all the three entities mentioned above are not independent from the viewpoint of their contents, as any logic of structuring complex entities requires.

  3. (ajst) statistical mechanics model for orientational

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Science and Engineering Series Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 94 - 101. STATISTICAL MECHANICS MODEL FOR ORIENTATIONAL. MOTION OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL RIGID ROTATOR. Malo, J.O. ... there is no translational motion and that they are well separated so .... constant and I is the moment of inertia of a linear rotator. Thus, the ...

  4. Statistical Model Checking for Biological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

    2014-01-01

    Statistical Model Checking (SMC) is a highly scalable simulation-based verification approach for testing and estimating the probability that a stochastic system satisfies a given linear temporal property. The technique has been applied to (discrete and continuous time) Markov chains, stochastic...

  5. Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, Janine Camille [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pebay, Philippe Pierre [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Rojas, Maurice [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2014-07-01

    This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled "Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data", funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program.

  6. Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature

  7. Statistical models for optimizing mineral exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wignall, T.K.; DeGeoffroy, J.

    1987-01-01

    The primary purpose of mineral exploration is to discover ore deposits. The emphasis of this volume is on the mathematical and computational aspects of optimizing mineral exploration. The seven chapters that make up the main body of the book are devoted to the description and application of various types of computerized geomathematical models. These chapters include: (1) the optimal selection of ore deposit types and regions of search, as well as prospecting selected areas, (2) designing airborne and ground field programs for the optimal coverage of prospecting areas, and (3) delineating and evaluating exploration targets within prospecting areas by means of statistical modeling. Many of these statistical programs are innovative and are designed to be useful for mineral exploration modeling. Examples of geomathematical models are applied to exploring for six main types of base and precious metal deposits, as well as other mineral resources (such as bauxite and uranium)

  8. A statistical model for mapping morphological shape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiahan

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Living things come in all shapes and sizes, from bacteria, plants, and animals to humans. Knowledge about the genetic mechanisms for biological shape has far-reaching implications for a range spectrum of scientific disciplines including anthropology, agriculture, developmental biology, evolution and biomedicine. Results We derived a statistical model for mapping specific genes or quantitative trait loci (QTLs that control morphological shape. The model was formulated within the mixture framework, in which different types of shape are thought to result from genotypic discrepancies at a QTL. The EM algorithm was implemented to estimate QTL genotype-specific shapes based on a shape correspondence analysis. Computer simulation was used to investigate the statistical property of the model. Conclusion By identifying specific QTLs for morphological shape, the model developed will help to ask, disseminate and address many major integrative biological and genetic questions and challenges in the genetic control of biological shape and function.

  9. Performance modeling, stochastic networks, and statistical multiplexing

    CERN Document Server

    Mazumdar, Ravi R

    2013-01-01

    This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of introducing an appropriate mathematical framework for modeling and analysis as well as understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The models, techniques, and results presented form the core of traffic engineering methods used to design, control and allocate resources in communication networks.The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the importan

  10. Automated Simulation Model Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Y.

    2013-01-01

    One of today's challenges in the field of modeling and simulation is to model increasingly larger and more complex systems. Complex models take long to develop and incur high costs. With the advances in data collection technologies and more popular use of computer-aided systems, more data has become

  11. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  12. Statistical physics of pairwise probability models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasser Roudi

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of data: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying and using pairwise models. We build on our previous work on the subject and study the relation between different methods for fitting these models and evaluating their quality. In particular, using data from simulated cortical networks we study how the quality of various approximate methods for inferring the parameters in a pairwise model depends on the time bin chosen for binning the data. We also study the effect of the size of the time bin on the model quality itself, again using simulated data. We show that using finer time bins increases the quality of the pairwise model. We offer new ways of deriving the expressions reported in our previous work for assessing the quality of pairwise models.

  13. Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.

    2017-10-01

    This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.

  14. Equilibrium statistical mechanics of lattice models

    CERN Document Server

    Lavis, David A

    2015-01-01

    Most interesting and difficult problems in equilibrium statistical mechanics concern models which exhibit phase transitions. For graduate students and more experienced researchers this book provides an invaluable reference source of approximate and exact solutions for a comprehensive range of such models. Part I contains background material on classical thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, together with a classification and survey of lattice models. The geometry of phase transitions is described and scaling theory is used to introduce critical exponents and scaling laws. An introduction is given to finite-size scaling, conformal invariance and Schramm—Loewner evolution. Part II contains accounts of classical mean-field methods. The parallels between Landau expansions and catastrophe theory are discussed and Ginzburg—Landau theory is introduced. The extension of mean-field theory to higher-orders is explored using the Kikuchi—Hijmans—De Boer hierarchy of approximations. In Part III the use of alge...

  15. Statistical shape and appearance models of bones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkalkan, Nazli; Weinans, Harrie; Zadpoor, Amir A

    2014-03-01

    When applied to bones, statistical shape models (SSM) and statistical appearance models (SAM) respectively describe the mean shape and mean density distribution of bones within a certain population as well as the main modes of variations of shape and density distribution from their mean values. The availability of this quantitative information regarding the detailed anatomy of bones provides new opportunities for diagnosis, evaluation, and treatment of skeletal diseases. The potential of SSM and SAM has been recently recognized within the bone research community. For example, these models have been applied for studying the effects of bone shape on the etiology of osteoarthritis, improving the accuracy of clinical osteoporotic fracture prediction techniques, design of orthopedic implants, and surgery planning. This paper reviews the main concepts, methods, and applications of SSM and SAM as applied to bone. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Jacobson generators, Fock representations and statistics of sl(n + 1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palev, T.D.; Jeugt, J. van der

    2000-10-01

    The properties of A-statistics, related to the class of simple Lie algebras sl(n + 1), n is an element of Z + (Palev, T.D.: Preprint JINR E17-10550 (1977); hep-th/9705032), are further investigated. The description of each sl(n + 1) is carried out via generators and their relations (see eq. (2.5)), first introduced by Jacobson. The related Fock spaces W p , p is an element of N, are finite-dimensional irreducible sl(n + 1)-modules. The Pauli principle of the underlying statistics is formulated. In addition the paper contains the following new results: (a) the A-statistics are interpreted as exclusion statistics; (b) within each W p operators B(p) 1 ± ,...,B(p) n ± , proportional to the Jacobson generators, are introduced. It is proved that in an appropriate topology (Definition 2) lim p→∞ B(p) i ± = B i ± , where B i ± are Bose creation and annihilation operators; (c) it is shown that the local statistics of the degenerated hard-core Bose models and of the related Heisenberg spin models is p = I A-statistics. (author)

  17. Cellular automata and statistical mechanical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rujan, P.

    1987-01-01

    The authors elaborate on the analogy between the transfer matrix of usual lattice models and the master equation describing the time development of cellular automata. Transient and stationary properties of probabilistic automata are linked to surface and bulk properties, respectively, of restricted statistical mechanical systems. It is demonstrated that methods of statistical physics can be successfully used to describe the dynamic and the stationary behavior of such automata. Some exact results are derived, including duality transformations, exact mappings, disorder, and linear solutions. Many examples are worked out in detail to demonstrate how to use statistical physics in order to construct cellular automata with desired properties. This approach is considered to be a first step toward the design of fully parallel, probabilistic systems whose computational abilities rely on the cooperative behavior of their components

  18. Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models

    CERN Document Server

    Khuri, André I; Sinha, Bimal K

    2011-01-01

    An advanced discussion of linear models with mixed or random effects. In recent years a breakthrough has occurred in our ability to draw inferences from exact and optimum tests of variance component models, generating much research activity that relies on linear models with mixed and random effects. This volume covers the most important research of the past decade as well as the latest developments in hypothesis testing. It compiles all currently available results in the area of exact and optimum tests for variance component models and offers the only comprehensive treatment for these models a

  19. Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

    The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....

  20. Statistical modeling of geopressured geothermal reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, Esmail; Hughes, Richard; White, Christopher D.

    2017-06-01

    Identifying attractive candidate reservoirs for producing geothermal energy requires predictive models. In this work, inspectional analysis and statistical modeling are used to create simple predictive models for a line drive design. Inspectional analysis on the partial differential equations governing this design yields a minimum number of fifteen dimensionless groups required to describe the physics of the system. These dimensionless groups are explained and confirmed using models with similar dimensionless groups but different dimensional parameters. This study models dimensionless production temperature and thermal recovery factor as the responses of a numerical model. These responses are obtained by a Box-Behnken experimental design. An uncertainty plot is used to segment the dimensionless time and develop a model for each segment. The important dimensionless numbers for each segment of the dimensionless time are identified using the Boosting method. These selected numbers are used in the regression models. The developed models are reduced to have a minimum number of predictors and interactions. The reduced final models are then presented and assessed using testing runs. Finally, applications of these models are offered. The presented workflow is generic and can be used to translate the output of a numerical simulator into simple predictive models in other research areas involving numerical simulation.

  1. A statistical model for instable thermodynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommer, Jens-Uwe

    2003-01-01

    A generic model is presented for statistical systems which display thermodynamic features in contrast to our everyday experience, such as infinite and negative heat capacities. Such system are instable in terms of classical equilibrium thermodynamics. Using our statistical model, we are able to investigate states of instable systems which are undefined in the framework of equilibrium thermodynamics. We show that a region of negative heat capacity in the adiabatic environment, leads to a first order like phase transition when the system is coupled to a heat reservoir. This phase transition takes place without a phase coexistence. Nevertheless, all intermediate states are stable due to fluctuations. When two instable system are brought in thermal contact, the temperature of the composed system is lower than the minimum temperature of the individual systems. Generally, the equilibrium states of instable system cannot be simply decomposed into equilibrium states of the individual systems. The properties of instable system depend on the environment, ensemble equivalence is broken

  2. Logarithmic transformed statistical models in calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeis, C.D.

    1975-01-01

    A general type of statistical model used for calibration of instruments having the property that the standard deviations of the observed values increase as a function of the mean value is described. The application to the Helix Counter at the Rocky Flats Plant is primarily from a theoretical point of view. The Helix Counter measures the amount of plutonium in certain types of chemicals. The method described can be used also for other calibrations. (U.S.)

  3. ARSENIC CONTAMINATION IN GROUNDWATER: A STATISTICAL MODELING

    OpenAIRE

    Palas Roy; Naba Kumar Mondal; Biswajit Das; Kousik Das

    2013-01-01

    High arsenic in natural groundwater in most of the tubewells of the Purbasthali- Block II area of Burdwan district (W.B, India) has recently been focused as a serious environmental concern. This paper is intending to illustrate the statistical modeling of the arsenic contaminated groundwater to identify the interrelation of that arsenic contain with other participating groundwater parameters so that the arsenic contamination level can easily be predicted by analyzing only such parameters. Mul...

  4. Visualization of the variability of 3D statistical shape models by animation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamecker, Hans; Seebass, Martin; Lange, Thomas; Hege, Hans-Christian; Deuflhard, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Models of the 3D shape of anatomical objects and the knowledge about their statistical variability are of great benefit in many computer assisted medical applications like images analysis, therapy or surgery planning. Statistical model of shapes have successfully been applied to automate the task of image segmentation. The generation of 3D statistical shape models requires the identification of corresponding points on two shapes. This remains a difficult problem, especially for shapes of complicated topology. In order to interpret and validate variations encoded in a statistical shape model, visual inspection is of great importance. This work describes the generation and interpretation of statistical shape models of the liver and the pelvic bone.

  5. A Three-Dimensional Statistical Average Skull: Application of Biometric Morphing in Generating Missing Anatomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teshima, Tara Lynn; Patel, Vaibhav; Mainprize, James G; Edwards, Glenn; Antonyshyn, Oleh M

    2015-07-01

    The utilization of three-dimensional modeling technology in craniomaxillofacial surgery has grown exponentially during the last decade. Future development, however, is hindered by the lack of a normative three-dimensional anatomic dataset and a statistical mean three-dimensional virtual model. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a protocol to generate a statistical three-dimensional virtual model based on a normative dataset of adult skulls. Two hundred adult skull CT images were reviewed. The average three-dimensional skull was computed by processing each CT image in the series using thin-plate spline geometric morphometric protocol. Our statistical average three-dimensional skull was validated by reconstructing patient-specific topography in cranial defects. The experiment was repeated 4 times. In each case, computer-generated cranioplasties were compared directly to the original intact skull. The errors describing the difference between the prediction and the original were calculated. A normative database of 33 adult human skulls was collected. Using 21 anthropometric landmark points, a protocol for three-dimensional skull landmarking and data reduction was developed and a statistical average three-dimensional skull was generated. Our results show the root mean square error (RMSE) for restoration of a known defect using the native best match skull, our statistical average skull, and worst match skull was 0.58, 0.74, and 4.4  mm, respectively. The ability to statistically average craniofacial surface topography will be a valuable instrument for deriving missing anatomy in complex craniofacial defects and deficiencies as well as in evaluating morphologic results of surgery.

  6. A simple statistical model for geomagnetic reversals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, Catherine

    1990-01-01

    The diversity of paleomagnetic records of geomagnetic reversals now available indicate that the field configuration during transitions cannot be adequately described by simple zonal or standing field models. A new model described here is based on statistical properties inferred from the present field and is capable of simulating field transitions like those observed. Some insight is obtained into what one can hope to learn from paleomagnetic records. In particular, it is crucial that the effects of smoothing in the remanence acquisition process be separated from true geomagnetic field behavior. This might enable us to determine the time constants associated with the dominant field configuration during a reversal.

  7. A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morales, J.M.; Conejo, A.J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Univ. Castilla - La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Minguez, R. [Environmental Hydraulics Institute ' ' IH Cantabria' ' , Univ. Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander (Spain)

    2010-03-15

    Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn. (author)

  8. A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morales, J.M.; Minguez, R.; Conejo, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn.

  9. Model for future waste generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundqvist, Jan-Olov; Stenmarck, Aasa; Ekvall, Tomas

    2010-06-15

    The research presented in this report is part of the effort to estimate future Swedish waste quantities in the research programme Towards Sustainable Waste Management. More specifically, we estimate future waste coefficients that are designed to be fed into EMEC, which describes the Swedish economy in terms of 26 industrial sectors, a public sector, and households. Production in the model of industry and public sector requires input of labour, capital, energy, and other commodities. With waste-intensity coefficients added to each production parameter in each sector, EMEC can calculate the future waste quantities generated in different economic scenarios. To produce the waste-intensity coefficients, we make a survey of the current Swedish waste statistics. For each waste category from each sector we estimate whether the quantity depends primarily on the production in the sector, on the inputs of commodities, on the depreciation of capital goods, or on the size of the workforce in the sector. We calculate current waste-intensity coefficients by dividing the waste quantities by the parameter(s) to which they are assigned. We also present five different scenarios to describe how the waste intensity can develop until the year 2030. As far as possible and when deemed to be relevant, we have set the industrial waste generation to depend on the use of a commodity or an energy carrier. The quantity of spent vehicles and most equipment is set to depend on the depreciation of capital goods. Some wastes have been allocated to the staff, for example household waste from business. The quantities of wastes from households have a similar approach where every waste category is assigned to a combination of 26 different commodities

  10. statistical analysis of wind speed for electrical power generation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    sites are suitable for the generation of electrical energy. Also, the results ... Nigerian Journal of Technology (NIJOTECH). Vol. 36, No. ... parameter in the wind-power generation system. ..... [3] A. Zaharim, A. M Razali, R. Z Abidin, and K Sopian,.

  11. Encoding Dissimilarity Data for Statistical Model Building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahba, Grace

    2010-12-01

    We summarize, review and comment upon three papers which discuss the use of discrete, noisy, incomplete, scattered pairwise dissimilarity data in statistical model building. Convex cone optimization codes are used to embed the objects into a Euclidean space which respects the dissimilarity information while controlling the dimension of the space. A "newbie" algorithm is provided for embedding new objects into this space. This allows the dissimilarity information to be incorporated into a Smoothing Spline ANOVA penalized likelihood model, a Support Vector Machine, or any model that will admit Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space components, for nonparametric regression, supervised learning, or semi-supervised learning. Future work and open questions are discussed. The papers are: F. Lu, S. Keles, S. Wright and G. Wahba 2005. A framework for kernel regularization with application to protein clustering. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102, 12332-1233.G. Corrada Bravo, G. Wahba, K. Lee, B. Klein, R. Klein and S. Iyengar 2009. Examining the relative influence of familial, genetic and environmental covariate information in flexible risk models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, 8128-8133F. Lu, Y. Lin and G. Wahba. Robust manifold unfolding with kernel regularization. TR 1008, Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

  12. ARSENIC CONTAMINATION IN GROUNDWATER: A STATISTICAL MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palas Roy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available High arsenic in natural groundwater in most of the tubewells of the Purbasthali- Block II area of Burdwan district (W.B, India has recently been focused as a serious environmental concern. This paper is intending to illustrate the statistical modeling of the arsenic contaminated groundwater to identify the interrelation of that arsenic contain with other participating groundwater parameters so that the arsenic contamination level can easily be predicted by analyzing only such parameters. Multivariate data analysis was done with the collected groundwater samples from the 132 tubewells of this contaminated region shows that three variable parameters are significantly related with the arsenic. Based on these relationships, a multiple linear regression model has been developed that estimated the arsenic contamination by measuring such three predictor parameters of the groundwater variables in the contaminated aquifer. This model could also be a suggestive tool while designing the arsenic removal scheme for any affected groundwater.

  13. Wave Generation in Physical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Frigaard, Peter

    The present book describes the most important aspects of wave generation techniques in physical models. Moreover, the book serves as technical documentation for the wave generation software AwaSys 6, cf. Aalborg University (2012). In addition to the two main authors also Tue Hald and Michael...

  14. Optimizing refiner operation with statistical modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broderick, G [Noranda Research Centre, Pointe Claire, PQ (Canada)

    1997-02-01

    The impact of refining conditions on the energy efficiency of the process and on the handsheet quality of a chemi-mechanical pulp was studied as part of a series of pilot scale refining trials. Statistical models of refiner performance were constructed from these results and non-linear optimization of process conditions were conducted. Optimization results indicated that increasing the ratio of specific energy applied in the first stage led to a reduction of some 15 per cent in the total energy requirement. The strategy can also be used to obtain significant increases in pulp quality for a given energy input. 20 refs., 6 tabs.

  15. Average Nuclear properties based on statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Jaick, L.J.

    1974-01-01

    The rough properties of nuclei were investigated by statistical model, in systems with the same and different number of protons and neutrons, separately, considering the Coulomb energy in the last system. Some average nuclear properties were calculated based on the energy density of nuclear matter, from Weizsscker-Beth mass semiempiric formulae, generalized for compressible nuclei. In the study of a s surface energy coefficient, the great influence exercised by Coulomb energy and nuclear compressibility was verified. For a good adjust of beta stability lines and mass excess, the surface symmetry energy were established. (M.C.K.) [pt

  16. Workshop on Model Uncertainty and its Statistical Implications

    CERN Document Server

    1988-01-01

    In this book problems related to the choice of models in such diverse fields as regression, covariance structure, time series analysis and multinomial experiments are discussed. The emphasis is on the statistical implications for model assessment when the assessment is done with the same data that generated the model. This is a problem of long standing, notorious for its difficulty. Some contributors discuss this problem in an illuminating way. Others, and this is a truly novel feature, investigate systematically whether sample re-use methods like the bootstrap can be used to assess the quality of estimators or predictors in a reliable way given the initial model uncertainty. The book should prove to be valuable for advanced practitioners and statistical methodologists alike.

  17. Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.

  18. Statistical modeling to support power system planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staid, Andrea

    This dissertation focuses on data-analytic approaches that improve our understanding of power system applications to promote better decision-making. It tackles issues of risk analysis, uncertainty management, resource estimation, and the impacts of climate change. Tools of data mining and statistical modeling are used to bring new insight to a variety of complex problems facing today's power system. The overarching goal of this research is to improve the understanding of the power system risk environment for improved operation, investment, and planning decisions. The first chapter introduces some challenges faced in planning for a sustainable power system. Chapter 2 analyzes the driving factors behind the disparity in wind energy investments among states with a goal of determining the impact that state-level policies have on incentivizing wind energy. Findings show that policy differences do not explain the disparities; physical and geographical factors are more important. Chapter 3 extends conventional wind forecasting to a risk-based focus of predicting maximum wind speeds, which are dangerous for offshore operations. Statistical models are presented that issue probabilistic predictions for the highest wind speed expected in a three-hour interval. These models achieve a high degree of accuracy and their use can improve safety and reliability in practice. Chapter 4 examines the challenges of wind power estimation for onshore wind farms. Several methods for wind power resource assessment are compared, and the weaknesses of the Jensen model are demonstrated. For two onshore farms, statistical models outperform other methods, even when very little information is known about the wind farm. Lastly, chapter 5 focuses on the power system more broadly in the context of the risks expected from tropical cyclones in a changing climate. Risks to U.S. power system infrastructure are simulated under different scenarios of tropical cyclone behavior that may result from climate

  19. A Review of Modeling Bioelectrochemical Systems: Engineering and Statistical Aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuai Luo

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Bioelectrochemical systems (BES are promising technologies to convert organic compounds in wastewater to electrical energy through a series of complex physical-chemical, biological and electrochemical processes. Representative BES such as microbial fuel cells (MFCs have been studied and advanced for energy recovery. Substantial experimental and modeling efforts have been made for investigating the processes involved in electricity generation toward the improvement of the BES performance for practical applications. However, there are many parameters that will potentially affect these processes, thereby making the optimization of system performance hard to be achieved. Mathematical models, including engineering models and statistical models, are powerful tools to help understand the interactions among the parameters in BES and perform optimization of BES configuration/operation. This review paper aims to introduce and discuss the recent developments of BES modeling from engineering and statistical aspects, including analysis on the model structure, description of application cases and sensitivity analysis of various parameters. It is expected to serves as a compass for integrating the engineering and statistical modeling strategies to improve model accuracy for BES development.

  20. Acceleration transforms and statistical kinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LuValle, M.J.; Welsher, T.L.; Svoboda, K.

    1988-01-01

    For a restricted class of problems a mathematical model of microscopic degradation processes, statistical kinetics, is developed and linked through acceleration transforms to the information which can be obtained from a system in which the only observable sign of degradation is sudden and catastrophic failure. The acceleration transforms were developed in accelerated life testing applications as a tool for extrapolating from the observable results of an accelerated life test to the dynamics of the underlying degradation processes. A particular concern of a physicist attempting to interpreted the results of an analysis based on acceleration transforms is determining the physical species involved in the degradation process. These species may be (a) relatively abundant or (b) relatively rare. The main results of this paper are a theorem showing that for an important subclass of statistical kinetic models, acceleration transforms cannot be used to distinguish between cases a and b, and an example showing that in some cases falling outside the restrictions of the theorem, cases a and b can be distinguished by their acceleration transforms

  1. Association testing for next-generation sequencing data using score statistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skotte, Line; Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Albrechtsen, Anders

    2012-01-01

    computationally feasible due to the use of score statistics. As part of the joint likelihood, we model the distribution of the phenotypes using a generalized linear model framework, which works for both quantitative and discrete phenotypes. Thus, the method presented here is applicable to case-control studies...... of genotype calls into account have been proposed; most require numerical optimization which for large-scale data is not always computationally feasible. We show that using a score statistic for the joint likelihood of observed phenotypes and observed sequencing data provides an attractive approach...... to association testing for next-generation sequencing data. The joint model accounts for the genotype classification uncertainty via the posterior probabilities of the genotypes given the observed sequencing data, which gives the approach higher power than methods based on called genotypes. This strategy remains...

  2. Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs

  3. Investigating the statistical properties of user-generated documents

    OpenAIRE

    Inches, Giacomo; Carman, Mark J.; Crestani, Fabio

    2011-01-01

    The importance of the Internet as a communication medium is reflected in the large amount of documents being generated every day by users of the different services that take place online. In this work we aim at analyzing the properties of these online user-generated documents for some of the established services over the Internet (Kongregate, Twitter, Myspace and Slashdot) and comparing them with a consolidated collection of standard information retrieval documents (from the Wall Street...

  4. Investigating the Statistical Properties of User-Generated Documents

    OpenAIRE

    Inches Giacomo; Carman Mark James

    2011-01-01

    The importance of the Internet as a communication medium is reflected in the large amount of documents being generated every day by users of the different services that take place online. In this work we aim at analyzing the properties of these online user generated documents for some of the established services over the Internet (Kongregate Twitter Myspace and Slashdot) and comparing them with a consolidated collection of standard information retrieval documents (from the Wall Street Journal...

  5. A statistical model for porous structure of rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Yang; YANG YongMing; SONG ZhenDuo; XU WenJing

    2008-01-01

    The geometric features and the distribution properties of pores in rocks were In-vestigated by means of CT scanning tests of sandstones. The centroidal coordl-nares of pores, the statistic characterristics of pore distance, quantity, size and their probability density functions were formulated in this paper. The Monte Carlo method and the random number generating algorithm were employed to generate two series of random numbers with the desired statistic characteristics and prob-ability density functions upon which the random distribution of pore position, dis-tance and quantity were determined. A three-dimensional porous structural model of sandstone was constructed based on the FLAC3D program and the information of the pore position and distribution that the series of random numbers defined. On the basis of modelling, the Brazil split tests of rock discs were carried out to ex-amine the stress distribution, the pattern of element failure and the inoaculation of failed elements. The simulation indicated that the proposed model was consistent with the realistic porous structure of rock in terms of their statistic properties of pores and geometric similarity. The built-up model disclosed the influence of pores on the stress distribution, failure mode of material elements and the inosculation of failed elements.

  6. A statistical model for porous structure of rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The geometric features and the distribution properties of pores in rocks were in- vestigated by means of CT scanning tests of sandstones. The centroidal coordi- nates of pores, the statistic characterristics of pore distance, quantity, size and their probability density functions were formulated in this paper. The Monte Carlo method and the random number generating algorithm were employed to generate two series of random numbers with the desired statistic characteristics and prob- ability density functions upon which the random distribution of pore position, dis- tance and quantity were determined. A three-dimensional porous structural model of sandstone was constructed based on the FLAC3D program and the information of the pore position and distribution that the series of random numbers defined. On the basis of modelling, the Brazil split tests of rock discs were carried out to ex- amine the stress distribution, the pattern of element failure and the inosculation of failed elements. The simulation indicated that the proposed model was consistent with the realistic porous structure of rock in terms of their statistic properties of pores and geometric similarity. The built-up model disclosed the influence of pores on the stress distribution, failure mode of material elements and the inosculation of failed elements.

  7. Simple classical model for Fano statistics in radiation detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, David V. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Security Division - Radiological and Chemical Sciences Group PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)], E-mail: David.Jordan@pnl.gov; Renholds, Andrea S.; Jaffe, John E.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Rene Corrales, L.; Peurrung, Anthony J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Security Division - Radiological and Chemical Sciences Group PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)

    2008-02-01

    A simple classical model that captures the essential statistics of energy partitioning processes involved in the creation of information carriers (ICs) in radiation detectors is presented. The model pictures IC formation from a fixed amount of deposited energy in terms of the statistically analogous process of successively sampling water from a large, finite-volume container ('bathtub') with a small dipping implement ('shot or whiskey glass'). The model exhibits sub-Poisson variance in the distribution of the number of ICs generated (the 'Fano effect'). Elementary statistical analysis of the model clarifies the role of energy conservation in producing the Fano effect and yields Fano's prescription for computing the relative variance of the IC number distribution in terms of the mean and variance of the underlying, single-IC energy distribution. The partitioning model is applied to the development of the impact ionization cascade in semiconductor radiation detectors. It is shown that, in tandem with simple assumptions regarding the distribution of energies required to create an (electron, hole) pair, the model yields an energy-independent Fano factor of 0.083, in accord with the lower end of the range of literature values reported for silicon and high-purity germanium. The utility of this simple picture as a diagnostic tool for guiding or constraining more detailed, 'microscopic' physical models of detector material response to ionizing radiation is discussed.

  8. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  9. A statistical mechanical model of economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

    Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

  10. statistical analysis of wind speed for electrical power generation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    In order to predict and model the potential of any site, ... gamma, and Raleigh distributions for 8 locations in. Nigeria. ... probability density function is used to model the average power in ... mathematical expression of the Weibull distribution is.

  11. Current algebra, statistical mechanics and quantum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela Mendes, R.

    2017-11-01

    Results obtained in the past for free boson systems at zero and nonzero temperatures are revisited to clarify the physical meaning of current algebra reducible functionals which are associated to systems with density fluctuations, leading to observable effects on phase transitions. To use current algebra as a tool for the formulation of quantum statistical mechanics amounts to the construction of unitary representations of diffeomorphism groups. Two mathematical equivalent procedures exist for this purpose. One searches for quasi-invariant measures on configuration spaces, the other for a cyclic vector in Hilbert space. Here, one argues that the second approach is closer to the physical intuition when modelling complex systems. An example of application of the current algebra methodology to the pairing phenomenon in two-dimensional fermion systems is discussed.

  12. Statistical model for OCT image denoising

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Muxingzi

    2017-08-01

    Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive technique with a large array of applications in clinical imaging and biological tissue visualization. However, the presence of speckle noise affects the analysis of OCT images and their diagnostic utility. In this article, we introduce a new OCT denoising algorithm. The proposed method is founded on a numerical optimization framework based on maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the noise-free OCT image. It combines a novel speckle noise model, derived from local statistics of empirical spectral domain OCT (SD-OCT) data, with a Huber variant of total variation regularization for edge preservation. The proposed approach exhibits satisfying results in terms of speckle noise reduction as well as edge preservation, at reduced computational cost.

  13. New advances in statistical modeling and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, Rui; Oliveira, Maria; Paulino, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    This volume presents selected papers from the XIXth Congress of the Portuguese Statistical Society, held in the town of Nazaré, Portugal, from September 28 to October 1, 2011. All contributions were selected after a thorough peer-review process. It covers a broad range of papers in the areas of statistical science, probability and stochastic processes, extremes and statistical applications.

  14. Statistical Approaches for Next-Generation Sequencing Data

    OpenAIRE

    Qiao, Dandi

    2012-01-01

    During the last two decades, genotyping technology has advanced rapidly, which enabled the tremendous success of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in the search of disease susceptibility loci (DSLs). However, only a small fraction of the overall predicted heritability can be explained by the DSLs discovered. One possible explanation for this ”missing heritability” phenomenon is that many causal variants are rare. The recent development of high-throughput next-generation sequencing (NGS) ...

  15. Phenomenological Model of Vortex Generators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin Otto Laver; Westergaard, C.

    1995-01-01

    For some time attempts have been made to improve the power curve of stall regulated wind turbines by using devices like vortex generators VG and Gurney flaps. The vortex produces an additional mixing of the boundary layer and the free stream and thereby increasing the momentum close to the wall......, which again delays separation in adverse pressure gradient regions. A model is needed to include the effect of vortex generators in numerical computations of the viscous flow past rotors. In this paper a simple model is proposed....

  16. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  17. Efficient Parallel Statistical Model Checking of Biochemical Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Ballarini

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of verifying stochastic models of biochemical networks against behavioral properties expressed in temporal logic terms. Exact probabilistic verification approaches such as, for example, CSL/PCTL model checking, are undermined by a huge computational demand which rule them out for most real case studies. Less demanding approaches, such as statistical model checking, estimate the likelihood that a property is satisfied by sampling executions out of the stochastic model. We propose a methodology for efficiently estimating the likelihood that a LTL property P holds of a stochastic model of a biochemical network. As with other statistical verification techniques, the methodology we propose uses a stochastic simulation algorithm for generating execution samples, however there are three key aspects that improve the efficiency: first, the sample generation is driven by on-the-fly verification of P which results in optimal overall simulation time. Second, the confidence interval estimation for the probability of P to hold is based on an efficient variant of the Wilson method which ensures a faster convergence. Third, the whole methodology is designed according to a parallel fashion and a prototype software tool has been implemented that performs the sampling/verification process in parallel over an HPC architecture.

  18. Statistical Model Checking of Rich Models and Properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Danny Bøgsted

    in undecidability issues for the traditional model checking approaches. Statistical model checking has proven itself a valuable supplement to model checking and this thesis is concerned with extending this software validation technique to stochastic hybrid systems. The thesis consists of two parts: the first part...... motivates why existing model checking technology should be supplemented by new techniques. It also contains a brief introduction to probability theory and concepts covered by the six papers making up the second part. The first two papers are concerned with developing online monitoring techniques...... systems. The fifth paper shows how stochastic hybrid automata are useful for modelling biological systems and the final paper is concerned with showing how statistical model checking is efficiently distributed. In parallel with developing the theory contained in the papers, a substantial part of this work...

  19. Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a model of the joint probability distribution over the behaviors of the constituent atoms. In the context of molecular modeling, generative models reveal the correlation structure between the atoms, and may be used to predict how the system will respond to structural perturbations. We begin by discussing traditional methods, which produce multivariate Gaussian models. We then discuss GAMELAN (GrAphical Models of Energy LANdscapes), which produces generative models of complex, non-Gaussian conformational dynamics (e.g., allostery, binding, folding, etc) from long timescale simulation data. PMID:24446358

  20. Modeling statistical properties of written text.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Angeles Serrano

    Full Text Available Written text is one of the fundamental manifestations of human language, and the study of its universal regularities can give clues about how our brains process information and how we, as a society, organize and share it. Among these regularities, only Zipf's law has been explored in depth. Other basic properties, such as the existence of bursts of rare words in specific documents, have only been studied independently of each other and mainly by descriptive models. As a consequence, there is a lack of understanding of linguistic processes as complex emergent phenomena. Beyond Zipf's law for word frequencies, here we focus on burstiness, Heaps' law describing the sublinear growth of vocabulary size with the length of a document, and the topicality of document collections, which encode correlations within and across documents absent in random null models. We introduce and validate a generative model that explains the simultaneous emergence of all these patterns from simple rules. As a result, we find a connection between the bursty nature of rare words and the topical organization of texts and identify dynamic word ranking and memory across documents as key mechanisms explaining the non trivial organization of written text. Our research can have broad implications and practical applications in computer science, cognitive science and linguistics.

  1. How the Mastery Rubric for Statistical Literacy Can Generate Actionable Evidence about Statistical and Quantitative Learning Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rochelle E. Tractenberg

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Statistical literacy is essential to an informed citizenry; and two emerging trends highlight a growing need for training that achieves this literacy. The first trend is towards “big” data: while automated analyses can exploit massive amounts of data, the interpretation—and possibly more importantly, the replication—of results are challenging without adequate statistical literacy. The second trend is that science and scientific publishing are struggling with insufficient/inappropriate statistical reasoning in writing, reviewing, and editing. This paper describes a model for statistical literacy (SL and its development that can support modern scientific practice. An established curriculum development and evaluation tool—the Mastery Rubric—is integrated with a new, developmental, model of statistical literacy that reflects the complexity of reasoning and habits of mind that scientists need to cultivate in order to recognize, choose, and interpret statistical methods. This developmental model provides actionable evidence, and explicit opportunities for consequential assessment that serves students, instructors, developers/reviewers/accreditors of a curriculum, and institutions. By supporting the enrichment, rather than increasing the amount, of statistical training in the basic and life sciences, this approach supports curriculum development, evaluation, and delivery to promote statistical literacy for students and a collective quantitative proficiency more broadly.

  2. Statistical modelling of transcript profiles of differentially regulated genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergeant Martin J

    2008-07-01

    allowed 11% of the Escherichia coli features to be fitted by an exponential function, and 25% of the Rattus norvegicus features could be described by the critical exponential model, all with statistical significance of p Conclusion The statistical non-linear regression approaches presented in this study provide detailed biologically oriented descriptions of individual gene expression profiles, using biologically variable data to generate a set of defining parameters. These approaches have application to the modelling and greater interpretation of profiles obtained across a wide range of platforms, such as microarrays. Through careful choice of appropriate model forms, such statistical regression approaches allow an improved comparison of gene expression profiles, and may provide an approach for the greater understanding of common regulatory mechanisms between genes.

  3. Statistical evaluation of PACSTAT random number generation capabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piepel, G.F.; Toland, M.R.; Harty, H.; Budden, M.J.; Bartley, C.L.

    1988-05-01

    This report summarizes the work performed in verifying the general purpose Monte Carlo driver-program PACSTAT. The main objective of the work was to verify the performance of PACSTAT's random number generation capabilities. Secondary objectives were to document (using controlled configuration management procedures) changes made in PACSTAT at Pacific Northwest Laboratory, and to assure that PACSTAT input and output files satisfy quality assurance traceability constraints. Upon receipt of the PRIME version of the PACSTAT code from the Basalt Waste Isolation Project, Pacific Northwest Laboratory staff converted the code to run on Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) VAXs. The modifications to PACSTAT were implemented using the WITNESS configuration management system, with the modifications themselves intended to make the code as portable as possible. Certain modifications were made to make the PACSTAT input and output files conform to quality assurance traceability constraints. 10 refs., 17 figs., 6 tabs.

  4. Network Data: Statistical Theory and New Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-17

    and with environmental scientists at JPL and Emory University to retrieval from NASA MISR remote sensing images aerosol index AOD for air pollution ...Beijing, May, 2013 Beijing Statistics Forum, Beijing, May, 2013 Statistics Seminar, CREST-ENSAE, Paris , March, 2013 Statistics Seminar, University...to retrieval from NASA MISR remote sensing images aerosol index AOD for air pollution monitoring and management. Satellite- retrieved Aerosol Optical

  5. Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Olkiluoto Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellae, P.; Vaittinen, T.; Saksa, P.; Nummela, J.

    2004-11-01

    Posiva Oy is carrying out investigations for the disposal of the spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in SW Finland. The investigations have focused on the central part of the island. The layout design of the entire repository requires characterization of notably larger areas and must rely at least at the current stage on borehole information from a rather sparse network and on the geophysical soundings providing information outside and between the holes. In this work, the structural data according to the current version of the Olkiluoto bedrock model is analyzed. The bedrock model relies much on the borehole data although results of the seismic surveys and, for example, pumping tests are used in determining the orientation and continuation of the structures. Especially in the analysis, questions related to the frequency of structures and size of the structures are discussed. The structures observed in the boreholes are mainly dipping gently to the southeast. About 9 % of the sample length belongs to structures. The proportion is higher in the upper parts of the rock. The number of fracture and crushed zones seems not to depend greatly on the depth, whereas the hydraulic features concentrate on the depth range above -100 m. Below level -300 m, the hydraulic conductivity occurs in connection of fractured zones. Especially the hydraulic features, but also fracture and crushed zones often occur in groups. The frequency of the structure (area of structures per total volume) is estimated to be of the order of 1/100m. The size of the local structures was estimated by calculating the intersection of the zone to the nearest borehole where the zone has not been detected. Stochastic models using the Fracman software by Golder Associates were generated based on the bedrock model data complemented with the magnetic ground survey data. The seismic surveys (from boreholes KR5, KR13, KR14, and KR19) were used as alternative input data. The generated models were tested by

  6. Solar radiation data - statistical analysis and simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mustacchi, C; Cena, V; Rocchi, M; Haghigat, F

    1984-01-01

    The activities consisted in collecting meteorological data on magnetic tape for ten european locations (with latitudes ranging from 42/sup 0/ to 56/sup 0/ N), analysing the multi-year sequences, developing mathematical models to generate synthetic sequences having the same statistical properties of the original data sets, and producing one or more Short Reference Years (SRY's) for each location. The meteorological parameters examinated were (for all the locations) global + diffuse radiation on horizontal surface, dry bulb temperature, sunshine duration. For some of the locations additional parameters were available, namely, global, beam and diffuse radiation on surfaces other than horizontal, wet bulb temperature, wind velocity, cloud type, cloud cover. The statistical properties investigated were mean, variance, autocorrelation, crosscorrelation with selected parameters, probability density function. For all the meteorological parameters, various mathematical models were built: linear regression, stochastic models of the AR and the DAR type. In each case, the model with the best statistical behaviour was selected for the production of a SRY for the relevant parameter/location.

  7. Quantum statistical model for hot dense matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rukhsana Kouser; Tasneem, G.; Saleem Shahzad, M.; Shafiq-ur-Rehman; Nasim, M.H.; Amjad Ali

    2015-01-01

    In solving numerous applied problems, one needs to know the equation of state, photon absorption coefficient and opacity of substances employed. We present a code for absorption coefficient and opacity calculation based on quantum statistical model. A self-consistent method for the calculation of potential is used. By solving Schrödinger equation with self-consistent potential we find energy spectrum of quantum mechanical system and corresponding wave functions. In addition we find mean occupation numbers of electron states and average charge state of the substance studied. The main processes of interaction of radiation with matter included in our opacity calculation are photon absorption in spectral lines (Bound-bound), photoionization (Bound-free), inverse bremsstrahlung (Free-free), Compton and Thomson scattering. Bound-bound line shape function has contribution from natural, Doppler, fine structure, collisional and stark broadening. To illustrate the main features of the code and its capabilities, calculation of average charge state, absorption coefficient, Rosseland and Planck mean and group opacities of aluminum and iron are presented. Results are satisfactorily compared with the published data. (authors)

  8. Model of reverse steam generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malasek, V.; Manek, O.; Masek, V.; Riman, J.

    1987-01-01

    The claim of Czechoslovak discovery no. 239272 is a model designed for the verification of the properties of a reverse steam generator during the penetration of water, steam-water mixture or steam into liquid metal flowing inside the heat exchange tubes. The design may primarily be used for steam generators with a built-in inter-tube structure. The model is provided with several injection devices configured in different heat exchange tubes, spaced at different distances along the model axis. The design consists in that between the pressure and the circumferential casings there are transverse partitions and that in one chamber consisting of the circumferential casings, pressure casing and two adjoining partitions there is only one passage of the injection device through the inter-tube space. (Z.M.). 1 fig

  9. Schedulability of Herschel revisited using statistical model checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

    2015-01-01

    -approximation technique. We can safely conclude that the system is schedulable for varying values of BCET. For the cases where deadlines are violated, we use polyhedra to try to confirm the witnesses. Our alternative method to confirm non-schedulability uses statistical model-checking (SMC) to generate counter...... and blocking times of tasks. Consequently, the method may falsely declare deadline violations that will never occur during execution. This paper is a continuation of previous work of the authors in applying extended timed automata model checking (using the tool UPPAAL) to obtain more exact schedulability...... analysis, here in the presence of non-deterministic computation times of tasks given by intervals [BCET,WCET]. Computation intervals with preemptive schedulers make the schedulability analysis of the resulting task model undecidable. Our contribution is to propose a combination of model checking techniques...

  10. Statistical inference of the generation probability of T-cell receptors from sequence repertoires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murugan, Anand; Mora, Thierry; Walczak, Aleksandra M; Callan, Curtis G

    2012-10-02

    Stochastic rearrangement of germline V-, D-, and J-genes to create variable coding sequence for certain cell surface receptors is at the origin of immune system diversity. This process, known as "VDJ recombination", is implemented via a series of stochastic molecular events involving gene choices and random nucleotide insertions between, and deletions from, genes. We use large sequence repertoires of the variable CDR3 region of human CD4+ T-cell receptor beta chains to infer the statistical properties of these basic biochemical events. Because any given CDR3 sequence can be produced in multiple ways, the probability distribution of hidden recombination events cannot be inferred directly from the observed sequences; we therefore develop a maximum likelihood inference method to achieve this end. To separate the properties of the molecular rearrangement mechanism from the effects of selection, we focus on nonproductive CDR3 sequences in T-cell DNA. We infer the joint distribution of the various generative events that occur when a new T-cell receptor gene is created. We find a rich picture of correlation (and absence thereof), providing insight into the molecular mechanisms involved. The generative event statistics are consistent between individuals, suggesting a universal biochemical process. Our probabilistic model predicts the generation probability of any specific CDR3 sequence by the primitive recombination process, allowing us to quantify the potential diversity of the T-cell repertoire and to understand why some sequences are shared between individuals. We argue that the use of formal statistical inference methods, of the kind presented in this paper, will be essential for quantitative understanding of the generation and evolution of diversity in the adaptive immune system.

  11. Estimating preferential flow in karstic aquifers using statistical mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anaya, Angel A; Padilla, Ingrid; Macchiavelli, Raul; Vesper, Dorothy J; Meeker, John D; Alshawabkeh, Akram N

    2014-01-01

    Karst aquifers are highly productive groundwater systems often associated with conduit flow. These systems can be highly vulnerable to contamination, resulting in a high potential for contaminant exposure to humans and ecosystems. This work develops statistical models to spatially characterize flow and transport patterns in karstified limestone and determines the effect of aquifer flow rates on these patterns. A laboratory-scale Geo-HydroBed model is used to simulate flow and transport processes in a karstic limestone unit. The model consists of stainless steel tanks containing a karstified limestone block collected from a karst aquifer formation in northern Puerto Rico. Experimental work involves making a series of flow and tracer injections, while monitoring hydraulic and tracer response spatially and temporally. Statistical mixed models (SMMs) are applied to hydraulic data to determine likely pathways of preferential flow in the limestone units. The models indicate a highly heterogeneous system with dominant, flow-dependent preferential flow regions. Results indicate that regions of preferential flow tend to expand at higher groundwater flow rates, suggesting a greater volume of the system being flushed by flowing water at higher rates. Spatial and temporal distribution of tracer concentrations indicates the presence of conduit-like and diffuse flow transport in the system, supporting the notion of both combined transport mechanisms in the limestone unit. The temporal response of tracer concentrations at different locations in the model coincide with, and confirms the preferential flow distribution generated with the SMMs used in the study. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

  12. Statistical-learning strategies generate only modestly performing predictive models for urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate: A comparison of conventional and machine-learning methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yahya, Noorazrul; Ebert, Martin A.; Bulsara, Max; House, Michael J.; Kennedy, Angel; Joseph, David J.; Denham, James W.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Given the paucity of available data concerning radiotherapy-induced urinary toxicity, it is important to ensure derivation of the most robust models with superior predictive performance. This work explores multiple statistical-learning strategies for prediction of urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate. Methods: The performance of logistic regression, elastic-net, support-vector machine, random forest, neural network, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to predict urinary symptoms was analyzed using data from 754 participants accrued by TROG03.04-RADAR. Predictive features included dose-surface data, comorbidities, and medication-intake. Four symptoms were analyzed: dysuria, haematuria, incontinence, and frequency, each with three definitions (grade ≥ 1, grade ≥ 2 and longitudinal) with event rate between 2.3% and 76.1%. Repeated cross-validations producing matched models were implemented. A synthetic minority oversampling technique was utilized in endpoints with rare events. Parameter optimization was performed on the training data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare performance using sample size to detect differences of ≥0.05 at the 95% confidence level. Results: Logistic regression, elastic-net, random forest, MARS, and support-vector machine were the highest-performing statistical-learning strategies in 3, 3, 3, 2, and 1 endpoints, respectively. Logistic regression, MARS, elastic-net, random forest, neural network, and support-vector machine were the best, or were not significantly worse than the best, in 7, 7, 5, 5, 3, and 1 endpoints. The best-performing statistical model was for dysuria grade ≥ 1 with AUROC ± standard deviation of 0.649 ± 0.074 using MARS. For longitudinal frequency and dysuria grade ≥ 1, all strategies produced AUROC>0.6 while all haematuria endpoints and longitudinal incontinence models produced AUROC<0.6. Conclusions

  13. Statistical-learning strategies generate only modestly performing predictive models for urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate: A comparison of conventional and machine-learning methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yahya, Noorazrul, E-mail: noorazrul.yahya@research.uwa.edu.au [School of Physics, University of Western Australia, Western Australia 6009, Australia and School of Health Sciences, National University of Malaysia, Bangi 43600 (Malaysia); Ebert, Martin A. [School of Physics, University of Western Australia, Western Australia 6009, Australia and Department of Radiation Oncology, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Western Australia 6008 (Australia); Bulsara, Max [Institute for Health Research, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, Western Australia 6959 (Australia); House, Michael J. [School of Physics, University of Western Australia, Western Australia 6009 (Australia); Kennedy, Angel [Department of Radiation Oncology, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Western Australia 6008 (Australia); Joseph, David J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Western Australia 6008, Australia and School of Surgery, University of Western Australia, Western Australia 6009 (Australia); Denham, James W. [School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, New South Wales 2308 (Australia)

    2016-05-15

    Purpose: Given the paucity of available data concerning radiotherapy-induced urinary toxicity, it is important to ensure derivation of the most robust models with superior predictive performance. This work explores multiple statistical-learning strategies for prediction of urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate. Methods: The performance of logistic regression, elastic-net, support-vector machine, random forest, neural network, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to predict urinary symptoms was analyzed using data from 754 participants accrued by TROG03.04-RADAR. Predictive features included dose-surface data, comorbidities, and medication-intake. Four symptoms were analyzed: dysuria, haematuria, incontinence, and frequency, each with three definitions (grade ≥ 1, grade ≥ 2 and longitudinal) with event rate between 2.3% and 76.1%. Repeated cross-validations producing matched models were implemented. A synthetic minority oversampling technique was utilized in endpoints with rare events. Parameter optimization was performed on the training data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare performance using sample size to detect differences of ≥0.05 at the 95% confidence level. Results: Logistic regression, elastic-net, random forest, MARS, and support-vector machine were the highest-performing statistical-learning strategies in 3, 3, 3, 2, and 1 endpoints, respectively. Logistic regression, MARS, elastic-net, random forest, neural network, and support-vector machine were the best, or were not significantly worse than the best, in 7, 7, 5, 5, 3, and 1 endpoints. The best-performing statistical model was for dysuria grade ≥ 1 with AUROC ± standard deviation of 0.649 ± 0.074 using MARS. For longitudinal frequency and dysuria grade ≥ 1, all strategies produced AUROC>0.6 while all haematuria endpoints and longitudinal incontinence models produced AUROC<0.6. Conclusions

  14. Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a...

  15. A BRDF statistical model applying to space target materials modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chenghao; Li, Zhi; Xu, Can; Tian, Qichen

    2017-10-01

    In order to solve the problem of poor effect in modeling the large density BRDF measured data with five-parameter semi-empirical model, a refined statistical model of BRDF which is suitable for multi-class space target material modeling were proposed. The refined model improved the Torrance-Sparrow model while having the modeling advantages of five-parameter model. Compared with the existing empirical model, the model contains six simple parameters, which can approximate the roughness distribution of the material surface, can approximate the intensity of the Fresnel reflectance phenomenon and the attenuation of the reflected light's brightness with the azimuth angle changes. The model is able to achieve parameter inversion quickly with no extra loss of accuracy. The genetic algorithm was used to invert the parameters of 11 different samples in the space target commonly used materials, and the fitting errors of all materials were below 6%, which were much lower than those of five-parameter model. The effect of the refined model is verified by comparing the fitting results of the three samples at different incident zenith angles in 0° azimuth angle. Finally, the three-dimensional modeling visualizations of these samples in the upper hemisphere space was given, in which the strength of the optical scattering of different materials could be clearly shown. It proved the good describing ability of the refined model at the material characterization as well.

  16. Statistical Challenges in Modeling Big Brain Signals

    KAUST Repository

    Yu, Zhaoxia

    2017-11-01

    Brain signal data are inherently big: massive in amount, complex in structure, and high in dimensions. These characteristics impose great challenges for statistical inference and learning. Here we review several key challenges, discuss possible solutions, and highlight future research directions.

  17. Statistical Challenges in Modeling Big Brain Signals

    KAUST Repository

    Yu, Zhaoxia; Pluta, Dustin; Shen, Tong; Chen, Chuansheng; Xue, Gui; Ombao, Hernando

    2017-01-01

    Brain signal data are inherently big: massive in amount, complex in structure, and high in dimensions. These characteristics impose great challenges for statistical inference and learning. Here we review several key challenges, discuss possible

  18. Statistical Learning Theory: Models, Concepts, and Results

    OpenAIRE

    von Luxburg, Ulrike; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2008-01-01

    Statistical learning theory provides the theoretical basis for many of today's machine learning algorithms. In this article we attempt to give a gentle, non-technical overview over the key ideas and insights of statistical learning theory. We target at a broad audience, not necessarily machine learning researchers. This paper can serve as a starting point for people who want to get an overview on the field before diving into technical details.

  19. Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

    2017-06-01

    Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

  20. Integer Set Compression and Statistical Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, N. Jesper

    2014-01-01

    enumeration of elements may be arbitrary or random, but where statistics is kept in order to estimate probabilities of elements. We present a recursive subset-size encoding method that is able to benefit from statistics, explore the effects of permuting the enumeration order based on element probabilities......Compression of integer sets and sequences has been extensively studied for settings where elements follow a uniform probability distribution. In addition, methods exist that exploit clustering of elements in order to achieve higher compression performance. In this work, we address the case where...

  1. Predictive modelling of noise level generated during sawing of rocks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents an experimental and statistical study on noise level generated during of rock sawing by circular diamond sawblades. Influence of the operating variables and rock properties on the noise level are investigated and analysed. Statistical analyses are then employed and models are built for the prediction of ...

  2. Statistical modelling for social researchers principles and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Tarling, Roger

    2008-01-01

    This book explains the principles and theory of statistical modelling in an intelligible way for the non-mathematical social scientist looking to apply statistical modelling techniques in research. The book also serves as an introduction for those wishing to develop more detailed knowledge and skills in statistical modelling. Rather than present a limited number of statistical models in great depth, the aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the statistical models currently adopted in social research, in order that the researcher can make appropriate choices and select the most suitable model for the research question to be addressed. To facilitate application, the book also offers practical guidance and instruction in fitting models using SPSS and Stata, the most popular statistical computer software which is available to most social researchers. Instruction in using MLwiN is also given. Models covered in the book include; multiple regression, binary, multinomial and ordered logistic regression, log-l...

  3. Hybrid perturbation methods based on statistical time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    San-Juan, Juan Félix; San-Martín, Montserrat; Pérez, Iván; López, Rosario

    2016-04-01

    In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or semianalytical theory, generates an initial approximation that contains some inaccuracies derived from the fact that, in order to simplify the expressions and subsequent computations, not all the involved forces are taken into account and only low-order terms are considered, not to mention the fact that mathematical models of perturbations not always reproduce physical phenomena with absolute precision. The prediction technique, which can be based on either statistical time series models or computational intelligence methods, is aimed at modelling and reproducing missing dynamics in the previously integrated approximation. This combination results in the precision improvement of conventional numerical, analytical and semianalytical theories for determining the position and velocity of any artificial satellite or space debris object. In order to validate this methodology, we present a family of three hybrid orbit propagators formed by the combination of three different orders of approximation of an analytical theory and a statistical time series model, and analyse their capability to process the effect produced by the flattening of the Earth. The three considered analytical components are the integration of the Kepler problem, a first-order and a second-order analytical theories, whereas the prediction technique is the same in the three cases, namely an additive Holt-Winters method.

  4. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

    2014-04-01

    Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

  5. Linear Mixed Models in Statistical Genetics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. de Vlaming (Ronald)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractOne of the goals of statistical genetics is to elucidate the genetic architecture of phenotypes (i.e., observable individual characteristics) that are affected by many genetic variants (e.g., single-nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs). A particular aim is to identify specific SNPs that

  6. Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

    2013-01-01

    Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

  7. Mass generation in composite models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peccei, R.D.

    1985-10-01

    I discuss aspects of composite models of quarks and leptons connected with the dynamics of how these fermions acquire mass. Several issues related to the protection mechanisms necessary to keep quarks and leptons light are illustrated by means of concrete examples and a critical overview of suggestions for family replications is given. Some old and new ideas of how one may actually be able to generate small quark and lepton masses are examined, along with some of the difficulties they encounter in practice. (orig.)

  8. Geometric modeling in probability and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Calin, Ovidiu

    2014-01-01

    This book covers topics of Informational Geometry, a field which deals with the differential geometric study of the manifold probability density functions. This is a field that is increasingly attracting the interest of researchers from many different areas of science, including mathematics, statistics, geometry, computer science, signal processing, physics and neuroscience. It is the authors’ hope that the present book will be a valuable reference for researchers and graduate students in one of the aforementioned fields. This textbook is a unified presentation of differential geometry and probability theory, and constitutes a text for a course directed at graduate or advanced undergraduate students interested in applications of differential geometry in probability and statistics. The book contains over 100 proposed exercises meant to help students deepen their understanding, and it is accompanied by software that is able to provide numerical computations of several information geometric objects. The reader...

  9. Challenges in dental statistics: data and modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Matranga, D.; Castiglia, P.; Solinas, G.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present the reflections and proposals derived from the first Workshop of the SISMEC STATDENT working group on statistical methods and applications in dentistry, held in Ancona (Italy) on 28th September 2011. STATDENT began as a forum of comparison and discussion for statisticians working in the field of dental research in order to suggest new and improve existing biostatistical and clinical epidemiological methods. During the meeting, we dealt with very important to...

  10. Higher-Order Moment Characterisation of Rogue Wave Statistics in Supercontinuum Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Simon Toft; Bang, Ole; Wetzel, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    The noise characteristics of supercontinuum generation are characterized using higherorder statistical moments. Measures of skew and kurtosis, and the coefficient of variation allow quantitative identification of spectral regions dominated by rogue wave like behaviour.......The noise characteristics of supercontinuum generation are characterized using higherorder statistical moments. Measures of skew and kurtosis, and the coefficient of variation allow quantitative identification of spectral regions dominated by rogue wave like behaviour....

  11. A statistical model of future human actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, G.

    1992-02-01

    A critical review has been carried out of models of future human actions during the long term post-closure period of a radioactive waste repository. Various Markov models have been considered as alternatives to the standard Poisson model, and the problems of parameterisation have been addressed. Where the simplistic Poisson model unduly exaggerates the intrusion risk, some form of Markov model may have to be introduced. This situation may well arise for shallow repositories, but it is less likely for deep repositories. Recommendations are made for a practical implementation of a computer based model and its associated database. (Author)

  12. Enhanced surrogate models for statistical design exploiting space mapping technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koziel, Slawek; Bandler, John W.; Mohamed, Achmed S.

    2005-01-01

    We present advances in microwave and RF device modeling exploiting Space Mapping (SM) technology. We propose new SM modeling formulations utilizing input mappings, output mappings, frequency scaling and quadratic approximations. Our aim is to enhance circuit models for statistical analysis...

  13. Statistical models of shape optimisation and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Rhodri; Taylor, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Deformable shape models have wide application in computer vision and biomedical image analysis. This book addresses a key issue in shape modelling: establishment of a meaningful correspondence between a set of shapes. Full implementation details are provided.

  14. nQuire: a statistical framework for ploidy estimation using next generation sequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiß, Clemens L; Pais, Marina; Cano, Liliana M; Kamoun, Sophien; Burbano, Hernán A

    2018-04-04

    Intraspecific variation in ploidy occurs in a wide range of species including pathogenic and nonpathogenic eukaryotes such as yeasts and oomycetes. Ploidy can be inferred indirectly - without measuring DNA content - from experiments using next-generation sequencing (NGS). We present nQuire, a statistical framework that distinguishes between diploids, triploids and tetraploids using NGS. The command-line tool models the distribution of base frequencies at variable sites using a Gaussian Mixture Model, and uses maximum likelihood to select the most plausible ploidy model. nQuire handles large genomes at high coverage efficiently and uses standard input file formats. We demonstrate the utility of nQuire analyzing individual samples of the pathogenic oomycete Phytophthora infestans and the Baker's yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Using these organisms we show the dependence between reliability of the ploidy assignment and sequencing depth. Additionally, we employ normalized maximized log- likelihoods generated by nQuire to ascertain ploidy level in a population of samples with ploidy heterogeneity. Using these normalized values we cluster samples in three dimensions using multivariate Gaussian mixtures. The cluster assignments retrieved from a S. cerevisiae population recovered the true ploidy level in over 96% of samples. Finally, we show that nQuire can be used regionally to identify chromosomal aneuploidies. nQuire provides a statistical framework to study organisms with intraspecific variation in ploidy. nQuire is likely to be useful in epidemiological studies of pathogens, artificial selection experiments, and for historical or ancient samples where intact nuclei are not preserved. It is implemented as a stand-alone Linux command line tool in the C programming language and is available at https://github.com/clwgg/nQuire under the MIT license.

  15. How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

    2013-01-01

    Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

  16. Statistical modelling of traffic safety development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christens, Peter

    2004-01-01

    there were 6861 injury trafficc accidents reported by the police, resulting in 4519 minor injuries, 3946 serious injuries, and 431 fatalities. The general purpose of the research was to improve the insight into aggregated road safety methodology in Denmark. The aim was to analyse advanced statistical methods......, that were designed to study developments over time, including effects of interventions. This aim has been achieved by investigating variations in aggregated Danish traffic accident series and by applying state of the art methodologies to specific case studies. The thesis comprises an introduction...

  17. A statistical mechanical model for equilibrium ionization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macris, N.; Martin, P.A.; Pule, J.

    1990-01-01

    A quantum electron interacts with a classical gas of hard spheres and is in thermal equilibrium with it. The interaction is attractive and the electron can form a bound state with the classical particles. It is rigorously shown that in a well defined low density and low temperature limit, the ionization probability for the electron tends to the value predicted by the Saha formula for thermal ionization. In this regime, the electron is found to be in a statistical mixture of a bound and a free state. (orig.)

  18. Statistical image processing and multidimensional modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Fieguth, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Images are all around us! The proliferation of low-cost, high-quality imaging devices has led to an explosion in acquired images. When these images are acquired from a microscope, telescope, satellite, or medical imaging device, there is a statistical image processing task: the inference of something - an artery, a road, a DNA marker, an oil spill - from imagery, possibly noisy, blurry, or incomplete. A great many textbooks have been written on image processing. However this book does not so much focus on images, per se, but rather on spatial data sets, with one or more measurements taken over

  19. Fluctuations and correlations in statistical models of hadron production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorenstein, M. I.

    2012-01-01

    An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution are introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.

  20. Analysis and Evaluation of Statistical Models for Integrated Circuits Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sáenz-Noval J.J.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Statistical models for integrated circuits (IC allow us to estimate the percentage of acceptable devices in the batch before fabrication. Actually, Pelgrom is the statistical model most accepted in the industry; however it was derived from a micrometer technology, which does not guarantee reliability in nanometric manufacturing processes. This work considers three of the most relevant statistical models in the industry and evaluates their limitations and advantages in analog design, so that the designer has a better criterion to make a choice. Moreover, it shows how several statistical models can be used for each one of the stages and design purposes.

  1. Statistical molecular design of balanced compound libraries for QSAR modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linusson, A; Elofsson, M; Andersson, I E; Dahlgren, M K

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental step in preclinical drug development is the computation of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models, i.e. models that link chemical features of compounds with activities towards a target macromolecule associated with the initiation or progression of a disease. QSAR models are computed by combining information on the physicochemical and structural features of a library of congeneric compounds, typically assembled from two or more building blocks, and biological data from one or more in vitro assays. Since the models provide information on features affecting the compounds' biological activity they can be used as guides for further optimization. However, in order for a QSAR model to be relevant to the targeted disease, and drug development in general, the compound library used must contain molecules with balanced variation of the features spanning the chemical space believed to be important for interaction with the biological target. In addition, the assays used must be robust and deliver high quality data that are directly related to the function of the biological target and the associated disease state. In this review, we discuss and exemplify the concept of statistical molecular design (SMD) in the selection of building blocks and final synthetic targets (i.e. compounds to synthesize) to generate information-rich, balanced libraries for biological testing and computation of QSAR models.

  2. Modeling of uncertainties in statistical inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaipio, Jari

    2008-01-01

    In all real world problems, the models that tie the measurements to the unknowns of interest, are at best only approximations for reality. While moderate modeling and approximation errors can be tolerated with stable problems, inverse problems are a notorious exception. Typical modeling errors include inaccurate geometry, unknown boundary and initial data, properties of noise and other disturbances, and simply the numerical approximations of the physical models. In principle, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, in which all uncertainties are modeled as random variables, is capable of handling these uncertainties. Depending on the type of uncertainties, however, different strategies may be adopted. In this paper we give an overview of typical modeling errors and related strategies within the Bayesian framework.

  3. Interpretation of commonly used statistical regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasza, Jessica; Wolfe, Rory

    2014-01-01

    A review of some regression models commonly used in respiratory health applications is provided in this article. Simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression are considered. The focus of this article is on the interpretation of the regression coefficients of each model, which are illustrated through the application of these models to a respiratory health research study. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

  4. Statistical modeling and extrapolation of carcinogenesis data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Dewanji, A.

    1986-01-01

    Mathematical models of carcinogenesis are reviewed, including pharmacokinetic models for metabolic activation of carcinogenic substances. Maximum likelihood procedures for fitting these models to epidemiological data are discussed, including situations where the time to tumor occurrence is unobservable. The plausibility of different possible shapes of the dose response curve at low doses is examined, and a robust method for linear extrapolation to low doses is proposed and applied to epidemiological data on radiation carcinogenesis

  5. Plan Recognition using Statistical Relational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-25

    corresponding undirected model can be significantly more complex since there is no closed form solution for the maximum-likelihood set of parameters unlike in...algorithm did not scale to larger training sets, and the overall results are still not competitive with BALPs. 5In directed models, a closed form solution...opinions of ARO, DARPA, NSF or any other government agency. References Albrecht DW, Zukerman I, Nicholson AE. Bayesian models for keyhole plan

  6. Multivariate statistical modelling based on generalized linear models

    CERN Document Server

    Fahrmeir, Ludwig

    1994-01-01

    This book is concerned with the use of generalized linear models for univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Its emphasis is to provide a detailed introductory survey of the subject based on the analysis of real data drawn from a variety of subjects including the biological sciences, economics, and the social sciences. Where possible, technical details and proofs are deferred to an appendix in order to provide an accessible account for non-experts. Topics covered include: models for multi-categorical responses, model checking, time series and longitudinal data, random effects models, and state-space models. Throughout, the authors have taken great pains to discuss the underlying theoretical ideas in ways that relate well to the data at hand. As a result, numerous researchers whose work relies on the use of these models will find this an invaluable account to have on their desks. "The basic aim of the authors is to bring together and review a large part of recent advances in statistical modelling of m...

  7. Statistically generated weighted curve fit of residual functions for modal analysis of structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bookout, P. S.

    1995-01-01

    A statistically generated weighting function for a second-order polynomial curve fit of residual functions has been developed. The residual flexibility test method, from which a residual function is generated, is a procedure for modal testing large structures in an external constraint-free environment to measure the effects of higher order modes and interface stiffness. This test method is applicable to structures with distinct degree-of-freedom interfaces to other system components. A theoretical residual function in the displacement/force domain has the characteristics of a relatively flat line in the lower frequencies and a slight upward curvature in the higher frequency range. In the test residual function, the above-mentioned characteristics can be seen in the data, but due to the present limitations in the modal parameter evaluation (natural frequencies and mode shapes) of test data, the residual function has regions of ragged data. A second order polynomial curve fit is required to obtain the residual flexibility term. A weighting function of the data is generated by examining the variances between neighboring data points. From a weighted second-order polynomial curve fit, an accurate residual flexibility value can be obtained. The residual flexibility value and free-free modes from testing are used to improve a mathematical model of the structure. The residual flexibility modal test method is applied to a straight beam with a trunnion appendage and a space shuttle payload pallet simulator.

  8. Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González-Aparicio, I.; Monforti, F.; Volker, P.; Zucker, A.; Careri, F.; Huld, T.; Badger, J.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Wind speed spatial resolution highly influences calculated wind power peaks and ramps. •Reduction of wind power generation uncertainties using statistical downscaling. •Publicly available dataset of wind power generation hourly time series at NUTS2. -- Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from solar and mainly wind resources constantly increases the stochastic nature of the power system. Modelling the high share of renewable energy sources – and in particular wind power – crucially depends on the adequate representation of the intermittency and characteristics of the wind resource which is related to the accuracy of the approach in converting wind speed data into power values. One of the main factors contributing to the uncertainty in these conversion methods is the selection of the spatial resolution. Although numerical weather prediction models can simulate wind speeds at higher spatial resolution (up to 1 × 1 km) than a reanalysis (generally, ranging from about 25 km to 70 km), they require high computational resources and massive storage systems: therefore, the most common alternative is to use the reanalysis data. However, local wind features could not be captured by the use of a reanalysis technique and could be translated into misinterpretations of the wind power peaks, ramping capacities, the behaviour of power prices, as well as bidding strategies for the electricity market. This study contributes to the understanding what is captured by different wind speeds spatial resolution datasets, the importance of using high resolution data for the conversion into power and the implications in power system analyses. It is proposed a methodology to increase the spatial resolution from a reanalysis. This study presents an open access renewable generation time series dataset for the EU-28 and neighbouring countries at hourly intervals and at different geographical aggregation levels (country, bidding zone and administrative

  9. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  10. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  11. Modeling Generational Transitions from Aggregate Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); S. Stremersch (Stefan)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractUsing only aggregate sales data, the model we propose decomposes the diffusion processes of the respective technological generations and tests if different technological generations have different diffusion parameters. It also estimates the location of the generational transition from

  12. Four-channel delay generator model 5740

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumatz, D.; Milner, M.

    1978-01-01

    The 4-channel delay generator model 5740 generates 4-pulse groups in independent channels. The device offers the possibility of controlling both the time intervals between the pulses of a group and the rate of generation of groups

  13. Huffman and linear scanning methods with statistical language models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roark, Brian; Fried-Oken, Melanie; Gibbons, Chris

    2015-03-01

    Current scanning access methods for text generation in AAC devices are limited to relatively few options, most notably row/column variations within a matrix. We present Huffman scanning, a new method for applying statistical language models to binary-switch, static-grid typing AAC interfaces, and compare it to other scanning options under a variety of conditions. We present results for 16 adults without disabilities and one 36-year-old man with locked-in syndrome who presents with complex communication needs and uses AAC scanning devices for writing. Huffman scanning with a statistical language model yielded significant typing speedups for the 16 participants without disabilities versus any of the other methods tested, including two row/column scanning methods. A similar pattern of results was found with the individual with locked-in syndrome. Interestingly, faster typing speeds were obtained with Huffman scanning using a more leisurely scan rate than relatively fast individually calibrated scan rates. Overall, the results reported here demonstrate great promise for the usability of Huffman scanning as a faster alternative to row/column scanning.

  14. Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

  15. On the Logical Development of Statistical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-12-01

    1978). "Modelos con parametros variables en el analisis de series temporales " Questiio, 4, 2, 75-87. [25] Seal, H. L. (1967). "The historical...example, a classical state-space representation of a simple time series model is: yt = it + ut Ut = *It-I + Ct (2.2) ut and et are independent normal...on its past values is displayed in the structural equation. This approach has been particularly useful in time series models. For example, model (2.2

  16. A Noise Robust Statistical Texture Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hilger, Klaus Baggesen; Stegmann, Mikkel Bille; Larsen, Rasmus

    2002-01-01

    Appearance Models segmentation framework. This is accomplished by augmenting the model with an estimate of the covariance of the noise present in the training data. This results in a more compact model maximising the signal-to-noise ratio, thus favouring subspaces rich on signal, but low on noise......This paper presents a novel approach to the problem of obtaining a low dimensional representation of texture (pixel intensity) variation present in a training set after alignment using a Generalised Procrustes analysis.We extend the conventional analysis of training textures in the Active...

  17. Performance of Generating Plant: Managing the Changes. Part 2: Thermal Generating Plant Unavailability Factors and Availability Statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curley, G. Michael [North American Electric Reliability Corporation (United States); Mandula, Jiri [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

    2008-05-15

    The WEC Committee on the Performance of Generating Plant (PGP) has been collecting and analysing power plant performance statistics worldwide for more than 30 years and has produced regular reports, which include examples of advanced techniques and methods for improving power plant performance through benchmarking. A series of reports from the various working groups was issued in 2008. This reference presents the results of Working Group 2 (WG2). WG2's main task is to facilitate the collection and input on an annual basis of power plant performance data (unit-by-unit and aggregated data) into the WEC PGP database. The statistics will be collected for steam, nuclear, gas turbine and combined cycle, hydro and pump storage plant. WG2 will also oversee the ongoing development of the availability statistics database, including the contents, the required software, security issues and other important information. The report is divided into two sections: Thermal generating, combined cycle/co-generation, combustion turbine, hydro and pumped storage unavailability factors and availability statistics; and nuclear power generating units.

  18. Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Hayslett, H T

    1991-01-01

    Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the

  19. 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rafajłowicz, Ewaryst; Szajowski, Krzysztof

    2015-01-01

    This volume presents the latest advances and trends in stochastic models and related statistical procedures. Selected peer-reviewed contributions focus on statistical inference, quality control, change-point analysis and detection, empirical processes, time series analysis, survival analysis and reliability, statistics for stochastic processes, big data in technology and the sciences, statistical genetics, experiment design, and stochastic models in engineering. Stochastic models and related statistical procedures play an important part in furthering our understanding of the challenging problems currently arising in areas of application such as the natural sciences, information technology, engineering, image analysis, genetics, energy and finance, to name but a few. This collection arises from the 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, Wroclaw, Poland.

  20. Materials Informatics: Statistical Modeling in Material Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yosipof, Abraham; Shimanovich, Klimentiy; Senderowitz, Hanoch

    2016-12-01

    Material informatics is engaged with the application of informatic principles to materials science in order to assist in the discovery and development of new materials. Central to the field is the application of data mining techniques and in particular machine learning approaches, often referred to as Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling, to derive predictive models for a variety of materials-related "activities". Such models can accelerate the development of new materials with favorable properties and provide insight into the factors governing these properties. Here we provide a comparison between medicinal chemistry/drug design and materials-related QSAR modeling and highlight the importance of developing new, materials-specific descriptors. We survey some of the most recent QSAR models developed in materials science with focus on energetic materials and on solar cells. Finally we present new examples of material-informatic analyses of solar cells libraries produced from metal oxides using combinatorial material synthesis. Different analyses lead to interesting physical insights as well as to the design of new cells with potentially improved photovoltaic parameters. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Introduction to statistical modelling: linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunt, Mark

    2015-07-01

    In many studies we wish to assess how a range of variables are associated with a particular outcome and also determine the strength of such relationships so that we can begin to understand how these factors relate to each other at a population level. Ultimately, we may also be interested in predicting the outcome from a series of predictive factors available at, say, a routine clinic visit. In a recent article in Rheumatology, Desai et al. did precisely that when they studied the prediction of hip and spine BMD from hand BMD and various demographic, lifestyle, disease and therapy variables in patients with RA. This article aims to introduce the statistical methodology that can be used in such a situation and explain the meaning of some of the terms employed. It will also outline some common pitfalls encountered when performing such analyses. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Benchmark validation of statistical models: Application to mediation analysis of imagery and memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, David P; Valente, Matthew J; Wurpts, Ingrid C

    2018-03-29

    This article describes benchmark validation, an approach to validating a statistical model. According to benchmark validation, a valid model generates estimates and research conclusions consistent with a known substantive effect. Three types of benchmark validation-(a) benchmark value, (b) benchmark estimate, and (c) benchmark effect-are described and illustrated with examples. Benchmark validation methods are especially useful for statistical models with assumptions that are untestable or very difficult to test. Benchmark effect validation methods were applied to evaluate statistical mediation analysis in eight studies using the established effect that increasing mental imagery improves recall of words. Statistical mediation analysis led to conclusions about mediation that were consistent with established theory that increased imagery leads to increased word recall. Benchmark validation based on established substantive theory is discussed as a general way to investigate characteristics of statistical models and a complement to mathematical proof and statistical simulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Latent domain models for statistical machine translation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoàng, C.

    2017-01-01

    A data-driven approach to model translation suffers from the data mismatch problem and demands domain adaptation techniques. Given parallel training data originating from a specific domain, training an MT system on the data would result in a rather suboptimal translation for other domains. But does

  4. Behavioral and statistical models of educational inequality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Breen, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of how students and their families make educational decisions. We describe three types of behavioral model that might underlie decision-making and we show that they have consequences for what decisions are made. Our study thus has policy implications if we wish...

  5. Statistical modelling of fine red wine production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Rosa Castro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Producing wine is a very important economic activity in the province of San Juan in Argentina; it is therefore most important to predict production regarding the quantity of raw material needed. This work was aimed at obtaining a model relating kilograms of crushed grape to the litres of wine so produced. Such model will be used for predicting precise future values and confidence intervals for determined quantities of crushed grapes. Data from a vineyard in the province of San Juan was thus used in this work. The sampling coefficient of correlation was calculated and a dispersion diagram was then constructed; this indicated a li- neal relationship between the litres of wine obtained and the kilograms of crushed grape. Two lineal models were then adopted and variance analysis was carried out because the data came from normal populations having the same variance. The most appropriate model was obtained from this analysis; it was validated with experimental values, a good approach being obtained.

  6. Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

    2017-05-01

    The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

  7. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning -RE ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    random sampling allows data to be modelled with the help of probability ... g based on different trials to get an estimate of the experimental error. ... research interests lie in the .... if e is indeed the true value of the proportion of defectives in the.

  8. Statistical Model Checking for Product Lines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    average cost of products (in terms of the attributes of the products’ features) and the probability of features to be (un)installed at runtime. The product lines must be modelled in QFLan, which extends the probabilistic feature-oriented language PFLan with novel quantitative constraints among features...

  9. A Statistical Model for Energy Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjaneh Issapour

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A promising approach to improve scientific literacy in regards to global warming and climate change is using a simulation as part of a science education course. The simulation needs to employ scientific analysis of actual data from internationally accepted and reputable databases to demonstrate the reality of the current climate change situation. One of the most important criteria for using a simulation in a science education course is the fidelity of the model. The realism of the events and consequences modeled in the simulation is significant as well. Therefore, all underlying equations and algorithms used in the simulation must have real-world scientific basis. The "Energy Choices" simulation is one such simulation. The focus of this paper is the development of a mathematical model for "Energy Intensity" as a part of the overall system dynamics in "Energy Choices" simulation. This model will define the "Energy Intensity" as a function of other independent variables that can be manipulated by users of the simulation. The relationship discovered by this research will be applied to an algorithm in the "Energy Choices" simulation.

  10. Structured Statistical Models of Inductive Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2009-01-01

    Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet…

  11. FlexibleSUSY-A spectrum generator generator for supersymmetric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athron, Peter; Park, Jae-hyeon; Stöckinger, Dominik; Voigt, Alexander

    2015-05-01

    We introduce FlexibleSUSY, a Mathematica and C++ package, which generates a fast, precise C++ spectrum generator for any SUSY model specified by the user. The generated code is designed with both speed and modularity in mind, making it easy to adapt and extend with new features. The model is specified by supplying the superpotential, gauge structure and particle content in a SARAH model file; specific boundary conditions e.g. at the GUT, weak or intermediate scales are defined in a separate FlexibleSUSY model file. From these model files, FlexibleSUSY generates C++ code for self-energies, tadpole corrections, renormalization group equations (RGEs) and electroweak symmetry breaking (EWSB) conditions and combines them with numerical routines for solving the RGEs and EWSB conditions simultaneously. The resulting spectrum generator is then able to solve for the spectrum of the model, including loop-corrected pole masses, consistent with user specified boundary conditions. The modular structure of the generated code allows for individual components to be replaced with an alternative if available. FlexibleSUSY has been carefully designed to grow as alternative solvers and calculators are added. Predefined models include the MSSM, NMSSM, E6SSM, USSM, R-symmetric models and models with right-handed neutrinos.

  12. Automatic Generation of Algorithms for the Statistical Analysis of Planetary Nebulae Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Bernd

    2004-01-01

    Analyzing data sets collected in experiments or by observations is a Core scientific activity. Typically, experimentd and observational data are &aught with uncertainty, and the analysis is based on a statistical model of the conjectured underlying processes, The large data volumes collected by modern instruments make computer support indispensible for this. Consequently, scientists spend significant amounts of their time with the development and refinement of the data analysis programs. AutoBayes [GF+02, FS03] is a fully automatic synthesis system for generating statistical data analysis programs. Externally, it looks like a compiler: it takes an abstract problem specification and translates it into executable code. Its input is a concise description of a data analysis problem in the form of a statistical model as shown in Figure 1; its output is optimized and fully documented C/C++ code which can be linked dynamically into the Matlab and Octave environments. Internally, however, it is quite different: AutoBayes derives a customized algorithm implementing the given model using a schema-based process, and then further refines and optimizes the algorithm into code. A schema is a parameterized code template with associated semantic constraints which define and restrict the template s applicability. The schema parameters are instantiated in a problem-specific way during synthesis as AutoBayes checks the constraints against the original model or, recursively, against emerging sub-problems. AutoBayes schema library contains problem decomposition operators (which are justified by theorems in a formal logic in the domain of Bayesian networks) as well as machine learning algorithms (e.g., EM, k-Means) and nu- meric optimization methods (e.g., Nelder-Mead simplex, conjugate gradient). AutoBayes augments this schema-based approach by symbolic computation to derive closed-form solutions whenever possible. This is a major advantage over other statistical data analysis systems

  13. Semi-Supervised Generation with Cluster-aware Generative Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maaløe, Lars; Fraccaro, Marco; Winther, Ole

    2017-01-01

    Deep generative models trained with large amounts of unlabelled data have proven to be powerful within the domain of unsupervised learning. Many real life data sets contain a small amount of labelled data points, that are typically disregarded when training generative models. We propose the Clust...... a log-likelihood of −79.38 nats on permutation invariant MNIST, while also achieving competitive semi-supervised classification accuracies. The model can also be trained fully unsupervised, and still improve the log-likelihood performance with respect to related methods.......Deep generative models trained with large amounts of unlabelled data have proven to be powerful within the domain of unsupervised learning. Many real life data sets contain a small amount of labelled data points, that are typically disregarded when training generative models. We propose the Cluster...

  14. Statistically Based Morphodynamic Modeling of Tracer Slowdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borhani, S.; Ghasemi, A.; Hill, K. M.; Viparelli, E.

    2017-12-01

    Tracer particles are used to study bedload transport in gravel-bed rivers. One of the advantages associated with using of tracer particles is that they allow for direct measures of the entrainment rates and their size distributions. The main issue in large scale studies with tracer particles is the difference between tracer stone short term and long term behavior. This difference is due to the fact that particles undergo vertical mixing or move to less active locations such as bars or even floodplains. For these reasons the average virtual velocity of tracer particle decreases in time, i.e. the tracer slowdown. In summary, tracer slowdown can have a significant impact on the estimation of bedload transport rate or long term dispersal of contaminated sediment. The vast majority of the morphodynamic models that account for the non-uniformity of the bed material (tracer and not tracer, in this case) are based on a discrete description of the alluvial deposit. The deposit is divided in two different regions; the active layer and the substrate. The active layer is a thin layer in the topmost part of the deposit whose particles can interact with the bed material transport. The substrate is the part of the deposit below the active layer. Due to the discrete representation of the alluvial deposit, active layer models are not able to reproduce tracer slowdown. In this study we try to model the slowdown of tracer particles with the continuous Parker-Paola-Leclair morphodynamic framework. This continuous, i.e. not layer-based, framework is based on a stochastic description of the temporal variation of bed surface elevation, and of the elevation specific particle entrainment and deposition. Particle entrainment rates are computed as a function of the flow and sediment characteristics, while particle deposition is estimated with a step length formulation. Here we present one of the first implementation of the continuum framework at laboratory scale, its validation against

  15. Identification of natural images and computer-generated graphics based on statistical and textural features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Fei; Li, Jiao-ting; Long, Min

    2015-03-01

    To discriminate the acquisition pipelines of digital images, a novel scheme for the identification of natural images and computer-generated graphics is proposed based on statistical and textural features. First, the differences between them are investigated from the view of statistics and texture, and 31 dimensions of feature are acquired for identification. Then, LIBSVM is used for the classification. Finally, the experimental results are presented. The results show that it can achieve an identification accuracy of 97.89% for computer-generated graphics, and an identification accuracy of 97.75% for natural images. The analyses also demonstrate the proposed method has excellent performance, compared with some existing methods based only on statistical features or other features. The method has a great potential to be implemented for the identification of natural images and computer-generated graphics. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  16. Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  17. Statistical mechanics of the cluster Ising model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smacchia, Pietro; Amico, Luigi; Facchi, Paolo; Fazio, Rosario; Florio, Giuseppe; Pascazio, Saverio; Vedral, Vlatko

    2011-01-01

    We study a Hamiltonian system describing a three-spin-1/2 clusterlike interaction competing with an Ising-like antiferromagnetic interaction. We compute free energy, spin-correlation functions, and entanglement both in the ground and in thermal states. The model undergoes a quantum phase transition between an Ising phase with a nonvanishing magnetization and a cluster phase characterized by a string order. Any two-spin entanglement is found to vanish in both quantum phases because of a nontrivial correlation pattern. Nevertheless, the residual multipartite entanglement is maximal in the cluster phase and dependent on the magnetization in the Ising phase. We study the block entropy at the critical point and calculate the central charge of the system, showing that the criticality of the system is beyond the Ising universality class.

  18. Statistical mechanics of the cluster Ising model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smacchia, Pietro [SISSA - via Bonomea 265, I-34136, Trieste (Italy); Amico, Luigi [CNR-MATIS-IMM and Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia Universita di Catania, C/O ed. 10, viale Andrea Doria 6, I-95125 Catania (Italy); Facchi, Paolo [Dipartimento di Matematica and MECENAS, Universita di Bari, I-70125 Bari (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Fazio, Rosario [NEST, Scuola Normale Superiore and Istituto Nanoscienze - CNR, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Center for Quantum Technology, National University of Singapore, 117542 Singapore (Singapore); Florio, Giuseppe; Pascazio, Saverio [Dipartimento di Fisica and MECENAS, Universita di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Vedral, Vlatko [Center for Quantum Technology, National University of Singapore, 117542 Singapore (Singapore); Department of Physics, National University of Singapore, 2 Science Drive 3, Singapore 117542 (Singapore); Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Oxford, OX1 3PU (United Kingdom)

    2011-08-15

    We study a Hamiltonian system describing a three-spin-1/2 clusterlike interaction competing with an Ising-like antiferromagnetic interaction. We compute free energy, spin-correlation functions, and entanglement both in the ground and in thermal states. The model undergoes a quantum phase transition between an Ising phase with a nonvanishing magnetization and a cluster phase characterized by a string order. Any two-spin entanglement is found to vanish in both quantum phases because of a nontrivial correlation pattern. Nevertheless, the residual multipartite entanglement is maximal in the cluster phase and dependent on the magnetization in the Ising phase. We study the block entropy at the critical point and calculate the central charge of the system, showing that the criticality of the system is beyond the Ising universality class.

  19. An experimental study of the surface elevation probability distribution and statistics of wind-generated waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.

    1980-01-01

    Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.

  20. Functional summary statistics for the Johnson-Mehl model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Ghorbani, Mohammad

    The Johnson-Mehl germination-growth model is a spatio-temporal point process model which among other things have been used for the description of neurotransmitters datasets. However, for such datasets parametric Johnson-Mehl models fitted by maximum likelihood have yet not been evaluated by means...... of functional summary statistics. This paper therefore invents four functional summary statistics adapted to the Johnson-Mehl model, with two of them based on the second-order properties and the other two on the nuclei-boundary distances for the associated Johnson-Mehl tessellation. The functional summary...... statistics theoretical properties are investigated, non-parametric estimators are suggested, and their usefulness for model checking is examined in a simulation study. The functional summary statistics are also used for checking fitted parametric Johnson-Mehl models for a neurotransmitters dataset....

  1. Statistical modelling in biostatistics and bioinformatics selected papers

    CERN Document Server

    Peng, Defen

    2014-01-01

    This book presents selected papers on statistical model development related mainly to the fields of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. The coverage of the material falls squarely into the following categories: (a) Survival analysis and multivariate survival analysis, (b) Time series and longitudinal data analysis, (c) Statistical model development and (d) Applied statistical modelling. Innovations in statistical modelling are presented throughout each of the four areas, with some intriguing new ideas on hierarchical generalized non-linear models and on frailty models with structural dispersion, just to mention two examples. The contributors include distinguished international statisticians such as Philip Hougaard, John Hinde, Il Do Ha, Roger Payne and Alessandra Durio, among others, as well as promising newcomers. Some of the contributions have come from researchers working in the BIO-SI research programme on Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, centred on the Universities of Limerick and Galway in Ireland and fu...

  2. Statistical analysis of the ratio of electric and magnetic fields in random fields generators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Serra, R.; Nijenhuis, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present statistical models of the ratio of random electric and magnetic fields in mode-stirred reverberation chambers. This ratio is based on the electric and magnetic field statistics derived for ideal reverberation conditions. It provides a further performance indicator for

  3. Statistical limitations in functional neuroimaging. I. Non-inferential methods and statistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersson, K M; Nichols, T E; Poline, J B; Holmes, A P

    1999-01-01

    Functional neuroimaging (FNI) provides experimental access to the intact living brain making it possible to study higher cognitive functions in humans. In this review and in a companion paper in this issue, we discuss some common methods used to analyse FNI data. The emphasis in both papers is on assumptions and limitations of the methods reviewed. There are several methods available to analyse FNI data indicating that none is optimal for all purposes. In order to make optimal use of the methods available it is important to know the limits of applicability. For the interpretation of FNI results it is also important to take into account the assumptions, approximations and inherent limitations of the methods used. This paper gives a brief overview over some non-inferential descriptive methods and common statistical models used in FNI. Issues relating to the complex problem of model selection are discussed. In general, proper model selection is a necessary prerequisite for the validity of the subsequent statistical inference. The non-inferential section describes methods that, combined with inspection of parameter estimates and other simple measures, can aid in the process of model selection and verification of assumptions. The section on statistical models covers approaches to global normalization and some aspects of univariate, multivariate, and Bayesian models. Finally, approaches to functional connectivity and effective connectivity are discussed. In the companion paper we review issues related to signal detection and statistical inference. PMID:10466149

  4. Algorithm for the generation of nuclear spin species and nuclear spin statistical weights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balasubramanian, K.

    1982-01-01

    A set of algorithms for the computer generation of nuclear spin species and nuclear spin statistical weights potentially useful in molecular spectroscopy is developed. These algorithms generate the nuclear spin species from group structures known as generalized character cycle indices (GCCIs). Thus the required input for these algorithms is just the set of all GCCIs for the symmetry group of the molecule which can be computed easily from the character table. The algorithms are executed and illustrated with examples

  5. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    For the years 2004 and 2005 the figures shown in the tables of Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics published in Energy Review are presented in more detail in a publication called Energy Statistics that comes out yearly. Energy Statistics also includes historical time-series over a longer period of time (see e.g. Energy Statistics, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2004.) The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes, precautionary stock fees and oil pollution fees

  6. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko

    2011-03-17

    We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  7. A Model of Statistics Performance Based on Achievement Goal Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandalos, Deborah L.; Finney, Sara J.; Geske, Jenenne A.

    2003-01-01

    Tests a model of statistics performance based on achievement goal theory. Both learning and performance goals affected achievement indirectly through study strategies, self-efficacy, and test anxiety. Implications of these findings for teaching and learning statistics are discussed. (Contains 47 references, 3 tables, 3 figures, and 1 appendix.)…

  8. Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendjaballah, C.

    2011-08-01

    Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes have been analyzed from the counting and time interval statistics points of view. Based on the criterion of the reduced variance, it is seen that such processes exhibit nonclassical properties. The conditions for these processes to be treated as conditional Poisson processes are examined. Numerical simulations illustrate part of the theoretical calculations.

  9. Smooth extrapolation of unknown anatomy via statistical shape models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grupp, R. B.; Chiang, H.; Otake, Y.; Murphy, R. J.; Gordon, C. R.; Armand, M.; Taylor, R. H.

    2015-03-01

    Several methods to perform extrapolation of unknown anatomy were evaluated. The primary application is to enhance surgical procedures that may use partial medical images or medical images of incomplete anatomy. Le Fort-based, face-jaw-teeth transplant is one such procedure. From CT data of 36 skulls and 21 mandibles separate Statistical Shape Models of the anatomical surfaces were created. Using the Statistical Shape Models, incomplete surfaces were projected to obtain complete surface estimates. The surface estimates exhibit non-zero error in regions where the true surface is known; it is desirable to keep the true surface and seamlessly merge the estimated unknown surface. Existing extrapolation techniques produce non-smooth transitions from the true surface to the estimated surface, resulting in additional error and a less aesthetically pleasing result. The three extrapolation techniques evaluated were: copying and pasting of the surface estimate (non-smooth baseline), a feathering between the patient surface and surface estimate, and an estimate generated via a Thin Plate Spline trained from displacements between the surface estimate and corresponding vertices of the known patient surface. Feathering and Thin Plate Spline approaches both yielded smooth transitions. However, feathering corrupted known vertex values. Leave-one-out analyses were conducted, with 5% to 50% of known anatomy removed from the left-out patient and estimated via the proposed approaches. The Thin Plate Spline approach yielded smaller errors than the other two approaches, with an average vertex error improvement of 1.46 mm and 1.38 mm for the skull and mandible respectively, over the baseline approach.

  10. Statistical shape modeling based renal volume measurement using tracked ultrasound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pai Raikar, Vipul; Kwartowitz, David M.

    2017-03-01

    Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the fourth most common cause of kidney transplant worldwide accounting for 7-10% of all cases. Although ADPKD usually progresses over many decades, accurate risk prediction is an important task.1 Identifying patients with progressive disease is vital to providing new treatments being developed and enable them to enter clinical trials for new therapy. Among other factors, total kidney volume (TKV) is a major biomarker predicting the progression of ADPKD. Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies in Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP)2 have shown that TKV is an early, and accurate measure of cystic burden and likely growth rate. It is strongly associated with loss of renal function.3 While ultrasound (US) has proven as an excellent tool for diagnosing the disease; monitoring short-term changes using ultrasound has been shown to not be accurate. This is attributed to high operator variability and reproducibility as compared to tomographic modalities such as CT and MR (Gold standard). Ultrasound has emerged as one of the standout modality for intra-procedural imaging and with methods for spatial localization has afforded us the ability to track 2D ultrasound in physical space which it is being used. In addition to this, the vast amount of recorded tomographic data can be used to generate statistical shape models that allow us to extract clinical value from archived image sets. In this work, we aim at improving the prognostic value of US in managing ADPKD by assessing the accuracy of using statistical shape model augmented US data, to predict TKV, with the end goal of monitoring short-term changes.

  11. The German Birth Order Register - order-specific data generated from perinatal statistics and statistics on out-of-hospital births 2001-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Michaela Kreyenfeld; Rembrandt D. Scholz; Frederik Peters; Ines Wlosnewski

    2010-01-01

    Until 2008, Germany’s vital statistics did not include information on the biological order of each birth. This resulted in a dearth of important demographic indicators, such as the mean age at first birth and the level of childlessness. Researchers have tried to fill this gap by generating order-specific birth rates from survey data, and by combining survey data with vital statistics. This paper takes a different approach by using hospital statistics on births to generate birth order-specific...

  12. A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

    OpenAIRE

    Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern

    2004-01-01

    The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing thre...

  13. Modeling and generating input processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1987-01-01

    This tutorial paper provides information relevant to the selection and generation of stochastic inputs to simulation studies. The primary area considered is multivariate but much of the philosophy at least is relevant to univariate inputs as well. 14 refs.

  14. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    For the year 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  15. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  16. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    For the year 1998 and the year 1999, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 1999, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 1999, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  17. Improving statistical reasoning theoretical models and practical implications

    CERN Document Server

    Sedlmeier, Peter

    1999-01-01

    This book focuses on how statistical reasoning works and on training programs that can exploit people''s natural cognitive capabilities to improve their statistical reasoning. Training programs that take into account findings from evolutionary psychology and instructional theory are shown to have substantially larger effects that are more stable over time than previous training regimens. The theoretical implications are traced in a neural network model of human performance on statistical reasoning problems. This book apppeals to judgment and decision making researchers and other cognitive scientists, as well as to teachers of statistics and probabilistic reasoning.

  18. Development of a statistical shape model of multi-organ and its performance evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakada, Misaki; Shimizu, Akinobu; Kobatake, Hidefumi; Nawano, Shigeru

    2010-01-01

    Existing statistical shape modeling methods for an organ can not take into account the correlation between neighboring organs. This study focuses on a level set distribution model and proposes two modeling methods for multiple organs that can take into account the correlation between neighboring organs. The first method combines level set functions of multiple organs into a vector. Subsequently it analyses the distribution of the vectors of a training dataset by a principal component analysis and builds a multiple statistical shape model. Second method constructs a statistical shape model for each organ independently and assembles component scores of different organs in a training dataset so as to generate a vector. It analyses the distribution of the vectors of to build a statistical shape model of multiple organs. This paper shows results of applying the proposed methods trained by 15 abdominal CT volumes to unknown 8 CT volumes. (author)

  19. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; van t Veld, Aart; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage

  20. Some remarks on the statistical model of heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, V.

    2003-01-01

    This contribution is an attempt to assess what can be learned from the remarkable success of this statistical model in describing ratios of particle abundances in ultra-relativistic heavy ion collisions

  1. Eigenfunction statistics for Anderson model with Hölder continuous ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Taramani, Chennai 600 113, India ... Anderson model; Hölder continuous measure; Poisson statistics. ...... [4] Combes J-M, Hislop P D and Klopp F, An optimal Wegner estimate and its application to.

  2. Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

    2007-01-01

    Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform...... on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind...

  3. A statistical method for predicting sound absorbing property of porous metal materials by using quartet structure generation set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guan, Dong; Wu, Jiu Hui; Jing, Li

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A random internal morphology and structure generation-growth method, termed as the quartet structure generation set (QSGS), has been utilized based on the stochastic cluster growth theory for numerical generating the various microstructures of porous metal materials. • Effects of different parameters such as thickness and porosity on sound absorption performance of the generated structures are studied by the present method, and the obtained results are validated by an empirical model as well. • This method could be utilized to guide the design and fabrication of the sound-absorption porous metal materials. - Abstract: In this paper, a statistical method for predicting sound absorption properties of porous metal materials is presented. To reflect the stochastic distribution characteristics of the porous metal materials, a random internal morphology and structure generation-growth method, termed as the quartet structure generation set (QSGS), has been utilized based on the stochastic cluster growth theory for numerical generating the various microstructures of porous metal materials. Then by using the transfer-function approach along with the QSGS tool, we investigate the sound absorbing performance of porous metal materials with complex stochastic geometries. The statistical method has been validated by the good agreement among the numerical results for metal rubber from this method and a previous empirical model and the corresponding experimental data. Furthermore, the effects of different parameters such as thickness and porosity on sound absorption performance of the generated structures are studied by the present method, and the obtained results are validated by an empirical model as well. Therefore, the present method is a reliable and robust method for predicting the sound absorption performance of porous metal materials, and could be utilized to guide the design and fabrication of the sound-absorption porous metal materials

  4. A no extensive statistical model for the nucleon structure function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trevisan, Luis A.; Mirez, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    We studied an application of nonextensive thermodynamics to describe the structure function of nucleon, in a model where the usual Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein energy distribution were replaced by the equivalent functions of the q-statistical. The parameters of the model are given by an effective temperature T, the q parameter (from Tsallis statistics), and two chemical potentials given by the corresponding up (u) and down (d) quark normalization in the nucleon.

  5. Statistical models and NMR analysis of polymer microstructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical models can be used in conjunction with NMR spectroscopy to study polymer microstructure and polymerization mechanisms. Thus, Bernoullian, Markovian, and enantiomorphic-site models are well known. Many additional models have been formulated over the years for additional situations. Typica...

  6. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    For the year 2002, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 2001, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2002). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supply and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees on energy products

  7. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    For the year 2003 and 2004, the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2003, ISSN 0785-3165). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2004, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2004, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees

  8. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  9. What's statistical about learning? Insights from modelling statistical learning as a set of memory processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiessen, Erik D

    2017-01-05

    Statistical learning has been studied in a variety of different tasks, including word segmentation, object identification, category learning, artificial grammar learning and serial reaction time tasks (e.g. Saffran et al. 1996 Science 274: , 1926-1928; Orban et al. 2008 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: , 2745-2750; Thiessen & Yee 2010 Child Development 81: , 1287-1303; Saffran 2002 Journal of Memory and Language 47: , 172-196; Misyak & Christiansen 2012 Language Learning 62: , 302-331). The difference among these tasks raises questions about whether they all depend on the same kinds of underlying processes and computations, or whether they are tapping into different underlying mechanisms. Prior theoretical approaches to statistical learning have often tried to explain or model learning in a single task. However, in many cases these approaches appear inadequate to explain performance in multiple tasks. For example, explaining word segmentation via the computation of sequential statistics (such as transitional probability) provides little insight into the nature of sensitivity to regularities among simultaneously presented features. In this article, we will present a formal computational approach that we believe is a good candidate to provide a unifying framework to explore and explain learning in a wide variety of statistical learning tasks. This framework suggests that statistical learning arises from a set of processes that are inherent in memory systems, including activation, interference, integration of information and forgetting (e.g. Perruchet & Vinter 1998 Journal of Memory and Language 39: , 246-263; Thiessen et al. 2013 Psychological Bulletin 139: , 792-814). From this perspective, statistical learning does not involve explicit computation of statistics, but rather the extraction of elements of the input into memory traces, and subsequent integration across those memory traces that emphasize consistent information (Thiessen and Pavlik

  10. Online Rule Generation Software Process Model

    OpenAIRE

    Sudeep Marwaha; Alka Aroa; Satma M C; Rajni Jain; R C Goyal

    2013-01-01

    For production systems like expert systems, a rule generation software can facilitate the faster deployment. The software process model for rule generation using decision tree classifier refers to the various steps required to be executed for the development of a web based software model for decision rule generation. The Royce’s final waterfall model has been used in this paper to explain the software development process. The paper presents the specific output of various steps of modified wat...

  11. Statistical mechanics of directed models of polymers in the square lattice

    CERN Document Server

    Rensburg, J V

    2003-01-01

    Directed square lattice models of polymers and vesicles have received considerable attention in the recent mathematical and physical sciences literature. These are idealized geometric directed lattice models introduced to study phase behaviour in polymers, and include Dyck paths, partially directed paths, directed trees and directed vesicles models. Directed models are closely related to models studied in the combinatorics literature (and are often exactly solvable). They are also simplified versions of a number of statistical mechanics models, including the self-avoiding walk, lattice animals and lattice vesicles. The exchange of approaches and ideas between statistical mechanics and combinatorics have considerably advanced the description and understanding of directed lattice models, and this will be explored in this review. The combinatorial nature of directed lattice path models makes a study using generating function approaches most natural. In contrast, the statistical mechanics approach would introduce...

  12. Models for probability and statistical inference theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Stapleton, James H

    2007-01-01

    This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readersModels for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping.Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses mo...

  13. Statistical modelling of space-time processes with application to wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzi, Amanda

    . This thesis aims at contributing to the wind power literature by building and evaluating new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations and lead times using spatio-temporal information. By exploring the features of a rich portfolio of wind farms in western Denmark, we investigate...... propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial...

  14. Application of Bayesian statistical decision theory to the optimization of generating set maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

    1994-07-01

    Statistical decision theory could be a alternative for the optimization of preventive maintenance periodicity. In effect, this theory concerns the situation in which a decision maker has to make a choice between a set of reasonable decisions, and where the loss associated to a given decision depends on a probabilistic risk, called state of nature. In the case of maintenance optimization, the decisions to be analyzed are different periodicities proposed by the experts, given the observed feedback experience, the states of nature are the associated failure probabilities, and the losses are the expectations of the induced cost of maintenance and of consequences of the failures. As failure probabilities concern rare events, at the ultimate state of RCM analysis (failure of sub-component), and as expected foreseeable behaviour of equipment has to be evaluated by experts, Bayesian approach is successfully used to compute states of nature. In Bayesian decision theory, a prior distribution for failure probabilities is modeled from expert knowledge, and is combined with few stochastic information provided by feedback experience, giving a posterior distribution of failure probabilities. The optimized decision is the decision that minimizes the expected loss over the posterior distribution. This methodology has been applied to inspection and maintenance optimization of cylinders of diesel generator engines of 900 MW nuclear plants. In these plants, auxiliary electric power is supplied by 2 redundant diesel generators which are tested every 2 weeks during about 1 hour. Until now, during yearly refueling of each plant, one endoscopic inspection of diesel cylinders is performed, and every 5 operating years, all cylinders are replaced. RCM has shown that cylinder failures could be critical. So Bayesian decision theory has been applied, taking into account expert opinions, and possibility of aging when maintenance periodicity is extended. (authors). 8 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  15. Deep Generative Models for Molecular Science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Bjørn; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Winther, Ole

    2018-01-01

    Generative deep machine learning models now rival traditional quantum-mechanical computations in predicting properties of new structures, and they come with a significantly lower computational cost, opening new avenues in computational molecular science. In the last few years, a variety of deep...... generative models have been proposed for modeling molecules, which differ in both their model structure and choice of input features. We review these recent advances within deep generative models for predicting molecular properties, with particular focus on models based on the probabilistic autoencoder (or...

  16. Symmetries, invariants and generating functions: higher-order statistics of biased tracers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munshi, Dipak

    2018-01-01

    Gravitationally collapsed objects are known to be biased tracers of an underlying density contrast. Using symmetry arguments, generalised biasing schemes have recently been developed to relate the halo density contrast δh with the underlying density contrast δ, divergence of velocity θ and their higher-order derivatives. This is done by constructing invariants such as s, t, ψ,η. We show how the generating function formalism in Eulerian standard perturbation theory (SPT) can be used to show that many of the additional terms based on extended Galilean and Lifshitz symmetry actually do not make any contribution to the higher-order statistics of biased tracers. Other terms can also be drastically simplified allowing us to write the vertices associated with δh in terms of the vertices of δ and θ, the higher-order derivatives and the bias coefficients. We also compute the cumulant correlators (CCs) for two different tracer populations. These perturbative results are valid for tree-level contributions but at an arbitrary order. We also take into account the stochastic nature bias in our analysis. Extending previous results of a local polynomial model of bias, we express the one-point cumulants Script SN and their two-point counterparts, the CCs i.e. Script Cpq, of biased tracers in terms of that of their underlying density contrast counterparts. As a by-product of our calculation we also discuss the results using approximations based on Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT).

  17. Modeling and analysis with induction generators

    CERN Document Server

    Simões, M Godoy

    2014-01-01

    ForewordPrefaceAcknowledgmentsAuthorsPrinciples of Alternative Sources of Energy and Electric GenerationScope of This ChapterLegal DefinitionsPrinciples of Electrical ConversionBasic Definitions of Electrical PowerCharacteristics of Primary SourcesCharacteristics of Remote Industrial, Commercial, and Residential Sites and Rural EnergySelection of the Electric GeneratorInterfacing Primary Source, Generator, and LoadExample of a Simple Integrated Generating and Energy-Storing SystemSolved ProblemsSuggested ProblemsReferencesSteady-State Model of Induction GeneratorsScope of This ChapterInterconnection and Disconnection of the Electric Distribution NetworkRobustness of Induction GeneratorsClassical Steady-State Representation of the Asynchronous MachineGenerated PowerInduced TorqueRepresentation of Induction Generator LossesMeasurement of Induction Generator ParametersBlocked Rotor Test (s = 1)No-Load Test (s = 0)Features of Induction Machines Working as Generators Interconnected to the Distribution NetworkHigh-...

  18. Right-sizing statistical models for longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Phillip K; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M

    2015-12-01

    Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to "right-size" the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting, overly parsimonious models to more complex, better-fitting alternatives and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically underidentified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A 3-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation-covariation patterns. The orthogonal free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered a general model that includes, as special cases, many models, including the factor mean (FM) model (McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, hierarchical linear models (HLMs), repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and the linear slope intercept (linearSI) growth model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparing several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James

    2013-04-01

    Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.

  20. Development of a statistical model for cervical cancer cell death with irreversible electroporation in vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yongji; Moser, Michael A J; Zhang, Edwin; Zhang, Wenjun; Zhang, Bing

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a statistical model for cell death by irreversible electroporation (IRE) and to show that the statistic model is more accurate than the electric field threshold model in the literature using cervical cancer cells in vitro. HeLa cell line was cultured and treated with different IRE protocols in order to obtain data for modeling the statistical relationship between the cell death and pulse-setting parameters. In total, 340 in vitro experiments were performed with a commercial IRE pulse system, including a pulse generator and an electric cuvette. Trypan blue staining technique was used to evaluate cell death after 4 hours of incubation following IRE treatment. Peleg-Fermi model was used in the study to build the statistical relationship using the cell viability data obtained from the in vitro experiments. A finite element model of IRE for the electric field distribution was also built. Comparison of ablation zones between the statistical model and electric threshold model (drawn from the finite element model) was used to show the accuracy of the proposed statistical model in the description of the ablation zone and its applicability in different pulse-setting parameters. The statistical models describing the relationships between HeLa cell death and pulse length and the number of pulses, respectively, were built. The values of the curve fitting parameters were obtained using the Peleg-Fermi model for the treatment of cervical cancer with IRE. The difference in the ablation zone between the statistical model and the electric threshold model was also illustrated to show the accuracy of the proposed statistical model in the representation of ablation zone in IRE. This study concluded that: (1) the proposed statistical model accurately described the ablation zone of IRE with cervical cancer cells, and was more accurate compared with the electric field model; (2) the proposed statistical model was able to estimate the value of electric

  1. Variability aware compact model characterization for statistical circuit design optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Ying; Qian, Kun; Spanos, Costas J.

    2012-03-01

    Variability modeling at the compact transistor model level can enable statistically optimized designs in view of limitations imposed by the fabrication technology. In this work we propose an efficient variabilityaware compact model characterization methodology based on the linear propagation of variance. Hierarchical spatial variability patterns of selected compact model parameters are directly calculated from transistor array test structures. This methodology has been implemented and tested using transistor I-V measurements and the EKV-EPFL compact model. Calculation results compare well to full-wafer direct model parameter extractions. Further studies are done on the proper selection of both compact model parameters and electrical measurement metrics used in the method.

  2. Dynamic modelling of nuclear steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerlin, T.W.; Katz, E.M.; Freels, J.; Thakkar, J.

    1980-01-01

    Moving boundary, nodal models with dynamic energy balances, dynamic mass balances, quasi-static momentum balances, and an equivalent single channel approach have been developed for steam generators used in nuclear power plants. The model for the U-tube recirculation type steam generator is described and comparisons are made of responses from models of different complexity; non-linear versus linear, high-order versus low order, detailed modeling of the control system versus a simple control assumption. The results of dynamic tests on nuclear power systems show that when this steam generator model is included in a system simulation there is good agreement with actual plant performance. (author)

  3. Linear mixed models a practical guide using statistical software

    CERN Document Server

    West, Brady T; Galecki, Andrzej T

    2006-01-01

    Simplifying the often confusing array of software programs for fitting linear mixed models (LMMs), Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical Software provides a basic introduction to primary concepts, notation, software implementation, model interpretation, and visualization of clustered and longitudinal data. This easy-to-navigate reference details the use of procedures for fitting LMMs in five popular statistical software packages: SAS, SPSS, Stata, R/S-plus, and HLM. The authors introduce basic theoretical concepts, present a heuristic approach to fitting LMMs based on bo

  4. Speech emotion recognition based on statistical pitch model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhiping; ZHAO Li; ZOU Cairong

    2006-01-01

    A modified Parzen-window method, which keep high resolution in low frequencies and keep smoothness in high frequencies, is proposed to obtain statistical model. Then, a gender classification method utilizing the statistical model is proposed, which have a 98% accuracy of gender classification while long sentence is dealt with. By separation the male voice and female voice, the mean and standard deviation of speech training samples with different emotion are used to create the corresponding emotion models. Then the Bhattacharyya distance between the test sample and statistical models of pitch, are utilized for emotion recognition in speech.The normalization of pitch for the male voice and female voice are also considered, in order to illustrate them into a uniform space. Finally, the speech emotion recognition experiment based on K Nearest Neighbor shows that, the correct rate of 81% is achieved, where it is only 73.85%if the traditional parameters are utilized.

  5. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  6. Adaptive Maneuvering Frequency Method of Current Statistical Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei Sun; Yongjian Yang

    2017-01-01

    Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly converging speedy and a limited precision when using Kalman filter(KF) algorithm. In this study, a new current statistical model and a new Kalman filter are proposed to improve the performance of maneuvering target tracking. The new model which employs innovation dominated subjection function to adaptively adjust maneuvering frequency has a better performance in step maneuvering target tracking, while a fluctuant phenomenon appears. As far as this problem is concerned, a new adaptive fading Kalman filter is proposed as well. In the new Kalman filter, the prediction values are amended in time by setting judgment and amendment rules,so that tracking precision and fluctuant phenomenon of the new current statistical model are improved. The results of simulation indicate the effectiveness of the new algorithm and the practical guiding significance.

  7. Modelling diversity in building occupant behaviour: a novel statistical approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldi, Frédéric; Calì, Davide; Andersen, Rune Korsholm

    2016-01-01

    We propose an advanced modelling framework to predict the scope and effects of behavioural diversity regarding building occupant actions on window openings, shading devices and lighting. We develop a statistical approach based on generalised linear mixed models to account for the longitudinal nat...

  8. A classical statistical model of heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, R.; Teichert, J.

    1980-01-01

    The use of the computer code TRAJEC which represents the numerical realization of a classical statistical model for heavy ion collisions is described. The code calculates the results of a classical friction model as well as various multi-differential cross sections for heavy ion collisions. INPUT and OUTPUT information of the code are described. Two examples of data sets are given [ru

  9. On an uncorrelated jet model with Bose-Einstein statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilic, N.; Dadic, I.; Martinis, M.

    1978-01-01

    Starting from the density of states of an ideal Bose-Einstein gas, an uncorrelated jet model with Bose-Einstein statistics has been formulated. The transition to continuum is based on the Touschek invariant measure. It has been shown that in this model average multiplicity increases logarithmically with total energy, while the inclusive distribution shows ln s violation of scaling. (author)

  10. Modelling with stakeholders - Next generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voinov, Alexey; Kolagani, Nagesh; McCall, Michael K; Glynn, Pierre D.; Kragt, Marit E; Ostermann, Frank O; Pierce, Suzanne A; Ramu, Palaniappan

    2016-01-01

    This paper updates and builds on ‘Modelling with Stakeholders’ Voinov and Bousquet, 2010 which demonstrated the importance of, and demand for, stakeholder participation in resource and environmental modelling. This position paper returns to the concepts of that publication and reviews the progress made since 2010. A new development is the wide introduction and acceptance of social media and web applications, which dramatically changes the context and scale of stakeholder interactions and participation. Technology advances make it easier to incorporate information in interactive formats via visualization and games to augment participatory experiences. Citizens as stakeholders are increasingly demanding to be engaged in planning decisions that affect them and their communities, at scales from local to global. How people interact with and access models and data is rapidly evolving. In turn, this requires changes in how models are built, packaged, and disseminated: citizens are less in awe of experts and external authorities, and they are increasingly aware of their own capabilities to provide inputs to planning processes, including models. The continued acceleration of environmental degradation and natural resource depletion accompanies these societal changes, even as there is a growing acceptance of the need to transition to alternative, possibly very different, life styles. Substantive transitions cannot occur without significant changes in human behaviour and perceptions. The important and diverse roles that models can play in guiding human behaviour, and in disseminating and increasing societal knowledge, are a feature of stakeholder processes today.

  11. Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

    2012-01-15

    Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

  12. A visual basic program to generate sediment grain-size statistics and to extrapolate particle distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, L.J.; Eliason, A.H.; Hastings, M.E.

    2004-01-01

    Measures that describe and summarize sediment grain-size distributions are important to geologists because of the large amount of information contained in textural data sets. Statistical methods are usually employed to simplify the necessary comparisons among samples and quantify the observed differences. The two statistical methods most commonly used by sedimentologists to describe particle distributions are mathematical moments (Krumbein and Pettijohn, 1938) and inclusive graphics (Folk, 1974). The choice of which of these statistical measures to use is typically governed by the amount of data available (Royse, 1970). If the entire distribution is known, the method of moments may be used; if the next to last accumulated percent is greater than 95, inclusive graphics statistics can be generated. Unfortunately, earlier programs designed to describe sediment grain-size distributions statistically do not run in a Windows environment, do not allow extrapolation of the distribution's tails, or do not generate both moment and graphic statistics (Kane and Hubert, 1963; Collias et al., 1963; Schlee and Webster, 1967; Poppe et al., 2000)1.Owing to analytical limitations, electro-resistance multichannel particle-size analyzers, such as Coulter Counters, commonly truncate the tails of the fine-fraction part of grain-size distributions. These devices do not detect fine clay in the 0.6–0.1 μm range (part of the 11-phi and all of the 12-phi and 13-phi fractions). Although size analyses performed down to 0.6 μm microns are adequate for most freshwater and near shore marine sediments, samples from many deeper water marine environments (e.g. rise and abyssal plain) may contain significant material in the fine clay fraction, and these analyses benefit from extrapolation.The program (GSSTAT) described herein generates statistics to characterize sediment grain-size distributions and can extrapolate the fine-grained end of the particle distribution. It is written in Microsoft

  13. Generation of a Kind of Displaced Thermal States in the Diffusion Process and its Statistical Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang-Guo, Meng; Hong-Yi, Fan; Ji-Suo, Wang

    2018-04-01

    This paper proposes a kind of displaced thermal states (DTS) and explores how this kind of optical field emerges using the entangled state representation. The results show that the DTS can be generated by a coherent state passing through a diffusion channel with the diffusion coefficient ϰ only when there exists κ t = (e^{\\hbar ν /kBT} - 1 )^{-1}. Also, its statistical properties, such as mean photon number, Wigner function and entropy, are investigated.

  14. Dynamic models for distributed generation resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morched, A.S. [BPR Energie, Sherbrooke, PQ (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Distributed resources can impact the performance of host power systems during both normal and abnormal system conditions. This PowerPoint presentation discussed the use of dynamic models for identifying potential interaction problems between interconnected systems. The models were designed to simulate steady state behaviour as well as transient responses to system disturbances. The distributed generators included directly coupled and electronically coupled generators. The directly coupled generator was driven by wind turbines. Simplified models of grid-side inverters, electronically coupled wind generators and doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs) were presented. The responses of DFIGs to wind variations were evaluated. Synchronous machine and electronically coupled generator responses were compared. The system model components included load models, generators, protection systems, and system equivalents. Frequency responses to islanding events were reviewed. The study demonstrated that accurate simulations are needed to predict the impact of distributed generation resources on the performance of host systems. Advances in distributed generation technology have outpaced the development of models needed for integration studies. tabs., figs.

  15. Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Blume

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

  16. Monthly to seasonal low flow prediction: statistical versus dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Klein, Bastian; Meissner, Dennis; Rademacher, Silke

    2016-04-01

    the Alfred Wegener Institute a purely statistical scheme to generate streamflow forecasts for several months ahead. Instead of directly using teleconnection indices (e.g. NAO, AO) the idea is to identify regions with stable teleconnections between different global climate information (e.g. sea surface temperature, geopotential height etc.) and streamflow at different gauges relevant for inland waterway transport. So-called stability (correlation) maps are generated showing regions where streamflow and climate variable from previous months are significantly correlated in a 21 (31) years moving window. Finally, the optimal forecast model is established based on a multiple regression analysis of the stable predictors. We will present current results of the aforementioned approaches with focus on the River Rhine (being one of the world's most frequented waterways and the backbone of the European inland waterway network) and the Elbe River. Overall, our analysis reveals the existence of a valuable predictability of the low flows at monthly and seasonal time scales, a result that may be useful to water resources management. Given that all predictors used in the models are available at the end of each month, the forecast scheme can be used operationally to predict extreme events and to provide early warnings for upcoming low flows.

  17. Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.

    1999-01-01

    A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made

  18. Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

  19. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Van't Veld, Aart A; Langendijk, Johannes A; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-09-01

    To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Shell model in large spaces and statistical spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kota, V.K.B.

    1996-01-01

    For many nuclear structure problems of current interest it is essential to deal with shell model in large spaces. For this, three different approaches are now in use and two of them are: (i) the conventional shell model diagonalization approach but taking into account new advances in computer technology; (ii) the shell model Monte Carlo method. A brief overview of these two methods is given. Large space shell model studies raise fundamental questions regarding the information content of the shell model spectrum of complex nuclei. This led to the third approach- the statistical spectroscopy methods. The principles of statistical spectroscopy have their basis in nuclear quantum chaos and they are described (which are substantiated by large scale shell model calculations) in some detail. (author)

  1. Computationally efficient statistical differential equation modeling using homogenization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooten, Mevin B.; Garlick, Martha J.; Powell, James A.

    2013-01-01

    Statistical models using partial differential equations (PDEs) to describe dynamically evolving natural systems are appearing in the scientific literature with some regularity in recent years. Often such studies seek to characterize the dynamics of temporal or spatio-temporal phenomena such as invasive species, consumer-resource interactions, community evolution, and resource selection. Specifically, in the spatial setting, data are often available at varying spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, the necessary numerical integration of a PDE may be computationally infeasible over the spatial support of interest. We present an approach to impose computationally advantageous changes of support in statistical implementations of PDE models and demonstrate its utility through simulation using a form of PDE known as “ecological diffusion.” We also apply a statistical ecological diffusion model to a data set involving the spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in Idaho, USA.

  2. Growth Curve Models and Applications : Indian Statistical Institute

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    Growth curve models in longitudinal studies are widely used to model population size, body height, biomass, fungal growth, and other variables in the biological sciences, but these statistical methods for modeling growth curves and analyzing longitudinal data also extend to general statistics, economics, public health, demographics, epidemiology, SQC, sociology, nano-biotechnology, fluid mechanics, and other applied areas.   There is no one-size-fits-all approach to growth measurement. The selected papers in this volume build on presentations from the GCM workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute, Giridih, on March 28-29, 2016. They represent recent trends in GCM research on different subject areas, both theoretical and applied. This book includes tools and possibilities for further work through new techniques and modification of existing ones. The volume includes original studies, theoretical findings and case studies from a wide range of app lied work, and these contributions have been externally r...

  3. Validation of statistical assessment method for the optimization of the inspection need for nuclear steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, K.; Voskamp, R.; Schmibauer, J.; Ostermeyer, H.; Nagel, G.

    2011-01-01

    The cost of steam generator inspections in nuclear power plants is high. A new quantitative assessment methodology for the accumulation of flaws due to stochastic causes like fretting has been developed for cases where limited inspection data is available. Additionally, a new quantitative assessment methodology for the accumulation of environment related flaws, caused e.g. by corrosion in steam generator tubes, has been developed. The method that combines deterministic information regarding flaw initiation and growth with stochastic elements connected to environmental aspects requires only knowledge of the experimental flaw accumulation history. The method, combining both types of flaw types, provides a complete description of the flaw accumulation and there are several possible uses of the method. The method can be used to evaluate the total life expectancy of the steam generator and simple statistically defined plugging criteria can be established based on flaw behaviour. This way the inspection interval and inspection coverage can be optimized with respect to allowable flaws and the method can recognize flaw type subsets requiring more frequent inspection intervals. The method can also be used to develop statistically realistic safety factors accounting for uncertainties in inspection flaw sizing and detection. The statistical assessment method has been showed to be robust and insensitive to different assessments of plugged tubes. Because the procedure is re-calibrated after each inspection, it reacts effectively to possible changes in the steam generator environment. Validation of the assessment method is provided for real steam generators, both in the case of stochastic damage as well as environment related flaws. (authors)

  4. Parametric analysis of the statistical model of the stick-slip process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Roberta; Sampaio, Rubens

    2017-06-01

    In this paper it is performed a parametric analysis of the statistical model of the response of a dry-friction oscillator. The oscillator is a spring-mass system which moves over a base with a rough surface. Due to this roughness, the mass is subject to a dry-frictional force modeled as a Coulomb friction. The system is stochastically excited by an imposed bang-bang base motion. The base velocity is modeled by a Poisson process for which a probabilistic model is fully specified. The excitation induces in the system stochastic stick-slip oscillations. The system response is composed by a random sequence alternating stick and slip-modes. With realizations of the system, a statistical model is constructed for this sequence. In this statistical model, the variables of interest of the sequence are modeled as random variables, as for example, the number of time intervals in which stick or slip occur, the instants at which they begin, and their duration. Samples of the system response are computed by integration of the dynamic equation of the system using independent samples of the base motion. Statistics and histograms of the random variables which characterize the stick-slip process are estimated for the generated samples. The objective of the paper is to analyze how these estimated statistics and histograms vary with the system parameters, i.e., to make a parametric analysis of the statistical model of the stick-slip process.

  5. Statistical mechanics of directed models of polymers in the square lattice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rensburg, E J Janse van

    2003-01-01

    Directed square lattice models of polymers and vesicles have received considerable attention in the recent mathematical and physical sciences literature. These are idealized geometric directed lattice models introduced to study phase behaviour in polymers, and include Dyck paths, partially directed paths, directed trees and directed vesicles models. Directed models are closely related to models studied in the combinatorics literature (and are often exactly solvable). They are also simplified versions of a number of statistical mechanics models, including the self-avoiding walk, lattice animals and lattice vesicles. The exchange of approaches and ideas between statistical mechanics and combinatorics have considerably advanced the description and understanding of directed lattice models, and this will be explored in this review. The combinatorial nature of directed lattice path models makes a study using generating function approaches most natural. In contrast, the statistical mechanics approach would introduce partition functions and free energies, and then investigate these using the general framework of critical phenomena. Generating function and statistical mechanics approaches are closely related. For example, questions regarding the limiting free energy may be approached by considering the radius of convergence of a generating function, and the scaling properties of thermodynamic quantities are related to the asymptotic properties of the generating function. In this review the methods for obtaining generating functions and determining free energies in directed lattice path models of linear polymers is presented. These methods include decomposition methods leading to functional recursions, as well as the Temperley method (that is implemented by creating a combinatorial object, one slice at a time). A constant term formulation of the generating function will also be reviewed. The thermodynamic features and critical behaviour in models of directed paths may be

  6. Statistical modelling for recurrent events: an application to sports injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullah, Shahid; Gabbett, Tim J; Finch, Caroline F

    2014-09-01

    Injuries are often recurrent, with subsequent injuries influenced by previous occurrences and hence correlation between events needs to be taken into account when analysing such data. This paper compares five different survival models (Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model and the following generalisations to recurrent event data: Andersen-Gill (A-G), frailty, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld total time (WLW-TT) marginal, Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap time (PWP-GT) conditional models) for the analysis of recurrent injury data. Empirical evaluation and comparison of different models were performed using model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit statistics. Simulation studies assessed the size and power of each model fit. The modelling approach is demonstrated through direct application to Australian National Rugby League recurrent injury data collected over the 2008 playing season. Of the 35 players analysed, 14 (40%) players had more than 1 injury and 47 contact injuries were sustained over 29 matches. The CoxPH model provided the poorest fit to the recurrent sports injury data. The fit was improved with the A-G and frailty models, compared to WLW-TT and PWP-GT models. Despite little difference in model fit between the A-G and frailty models, in the interest of fewer statistical assumptions it is recommended that, where relevant, future studies involving modelling of recurrent sports injury data use the frailty model in preference to the CoxPH model or its other generalisations. The paper provides a rationale for future statistical modelling approaches for recurrent sports injury. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  7. Statistical Model of the 2001 Czech Census for Interactive Presentation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grim, Jiří; Hora, Jan; Boček, Pavel; Somol, Petr; Pudil, Pavel

    Vol. 26, č. 4 (2010), s. 1-23 ISSN 0282-423X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/07/1594; GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Interactive statistical model * census data presentation * distribution mixtures * data modeling * EM algorithm * incomplete data * data reproduction accuracy * data mining Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.492, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/RO/grim-0350513.pdf

  8. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  9. Statistical Shape Modelling and Markov Random Field Restoration (invited tutorial and exercise)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hilger, Klaus Baggesen

    This tutorial focuses on statistical shape analysis using point distribution models (PDM) which is widely used in modelling biological shape variability over a set of annotated training data. Furthermore, Active Shape Models (ASM) and Active Appearance Models (AAM) are based on PDMs and have proven...... deformation field between shapes. The tutorial demonstrates both generative active shape and appearance models, and MRF restoration on 3D polygonized surfaces. ''Exercise: Spectral-Spatial classification of multivariate images'' From annotated training data this exercise applies spatial image restoration...... using Markov random field relaxation of a spectral classifier. Keywords: the Ising model, the Potts model, stochastic sampling, discriminant analysis, expectation maximization....

  10. A Statistical and Spectral Model for Representing Noisy Sounds with Short-Time Sinusoids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myriam Desainte-Catherine

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available We propose an original model for noise analysis, transformation, and synthesis: the CNSS model. Noisy sounds are represented with short-time sinusoids whose frequencies and phases are random variables. This spectral and statistical model represents information about the spectral density of frequencies. This perceptually relevant property is modeled by three mathematical parameters that define the distribution of the frequencies. This model also represents the spectral envelope. The mathematical parameters are defined and the analysis algorithms to extract these parameters from sounds are introduced. Then algorithms for generating sounds from the parameters of the model are presented. Applications of this model include tools for composers, psychoacoustic experiments, and pedagogy.

  11. Statistical spatial properties of speckle patterns generated by multiple laser beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Cain, A.; Sajer, J. M.; Riazuelo, G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates hot spot characteristics generated by the superposition of multiple laser beams. First, properties of speckle statistics are studied in the context of only one laser beam by computing the autocorrelation function. The case of multiple laser beams is then considered. In certain conditions, it is shown that speckles have an ellipsoidal shape. Analytical expressions of hot spot radii generated by multiple laser beams are derived and compared to numerical estimates made from the autocorrelation function. They are also compared to numerical simulations performed within the paraxial approximation. Excellent agreement is found for the speckle width as well as for the speckle length. Application to the speckle patterns generated in the Laser MegaJoule configuration in the zone where all the beams overlap is presented. Influence of polarization on the size of the speckles as well as on their abundance is studied.

  12. Statistical modeling of the power grid from a wind farm standpoint

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farajzadehbibalan, Saber; Ramezani, Mohammad H.; Nielsen, Peter

    2017-01-01

    wind farm over several years which results in the development of a useful model for practical purposes. Secondly, the derived model is computationally inexpensive. Considering an arbitrary wind turbine generator, we show that the behavior of the power grid at the connection point can be represented......In this study, we derive a statistical model of a power grid from the wind farm's standpoint based on dynamic principal component analysis. The main advantages of our model compared to the previously developed models are twofold. Firstly, our proposed model benefits from logged data of an offshore...... by 4 out of 9 registered variables, i.e. 3-phase voltages, 3-phase currents, frequency, and generated active and reactive powers. We further prove that the dynamic nature of the system can be optimally captured by a time lag shift of two samples. To extend the derived model of a wind turbine generator...

  13. Applied systems ecology: models, data, and statistical methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eberhardt, L L

    1976-01-01

    In this report, systems ecology is largely equated to mathematical or computer simulation modelling. The need for models in ecology stems from the necessity to have an integrative device for the diversity of ecological data, much of which is observational, rather than experimental, as well as from the present lack of a theoretical structure for ecology. Different objectives in applied studies require specialized methods. The best predictive devices may be regression equations, often non-linear in form, extracted from much more detailed models. A variety of statistical aspects of modelling, including sampling, are discussed. Several aspects of population dynamics and food-chain kinetics are described, and it is suggested that the two presently separated approaches should be combined into a single theoretical framework. It is concluded that future efforts in systems ecology should emphasize actual data and statistical methods, as well as modelling.

  14. Analyzing sickness absence with statistical models for survival data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Karl Bang; Andersen, Per Kragh; Smith-Hansen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Sickness absence is the outcome in many epidemiologic studies and is often based on summary measures such as the number of sickness absences per year. In this study the use of modern statistical methods was examined by making better use of the available information. Since sickness...... absence data deal with events occurring over time, the use of statistical models for survival data has been reviewed, and the use of frailty models has been proposed for the analysis of such data. METHODS: Three methods for analyzing data on sickness absences were compared using a simulation study...... involving the following: (i) Poisson regression using a single outcome variable (number of sickness absences), (ii) analysis of time to first event using the Cox proportional hazards model, and (iii) frailty models, which are random effects proportional hazards models. Data from a study of the relation...

  15. New robust statistical procedures for the polytomous logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla, Elena; Ghosh, Abhik; Martin, Nirian; Pardo, Leandro

    2018-05-17

    This article derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a family of Wald-type test statistics for linear hypotheses is introduced. Robustness properties of both the proposed estimators and the test statistics are theoretically studied through the classical influence function analysis. Appropriate real life examples are presented to justify the requirement of suitable robust statistical procedures in place of the likelihood based inference for the polytomous logistic regression model. The validity of the theoretical results established in the article are further confirmed empirically through suitable simulation studies. Finally, an approach for the data-driven selection of the robustness tuning parameter is proposed with empirical justifications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Automatic Model Generation Framework for Computational Simulation of Cochlear Implantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mangado Lopez, Nerea; Ceresa, Mario; Duchateau, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    . To address such a challenge, we propose an automatic framework for the generation of patient-specific meshes for finite element modeling of the implanted cochlea. First, a statistical shape model is constructed from high-resolution anatomical μCT images. Then, by fitting the statistical model to a patient......'s CT image, an accurate model of the patient-specific cochlea anatomy is obtained. An algorithm based on the parallel transport frame is employed to perform the virtual insertion of the cochlear implant. Our automatic framework also incorporates the surrounding bone and nerve fibers and assigns......Recent developments in computational modeling of cochlear implantation are promising to study in silico the performance of the implant before surgery. However, creating a complete computational model of the patient's anatomy while including an external device geometry remains challenging...

  17. Development of 3D statistical mandible models for cephalometric measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung Goo; Yi, Won Jin; Hwang, Soon Jung; Choi, Soon Chul; Lee, Sam Sun; Heo, Min Suk; Huh, Kyung Hoe; Kim, Tae Il; Hong, Helen; Yoo, Ji Hyun

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to provide sex-matched three-dimensional (3D) statistical shape models of the mandible, which would provide cephalometric parameters for 3D treatment planning and cephalometric measurements in orthognathic surgery. The subjects used to create the 3D shape models of the mandible included 23 males and 23 females. The mandibles were segmented semi-automatically from 3D facial CT images. Each individual mandible shape was reconstructed as a 3D surface model, which was parameterized to establish correspondence between different individual surfaces. The principal component analysis (PCA) applied to all mandible shapes produced a mean model and characteristic models of variation. The cephalometric parameters were measured directly from the mean models to evaluate the 3D shape models. The means of the measured parameters were compared with those from other conventional studies. The male and female 3D statistical mean models were developed from 23 individual mandibles, respectively. The male and female characteristic shapes of variation produced by PCA showed a large variability included in the individual mandibles. The cephalometric measurements from the developed models were very close to those from some conventional studies. We described the construction of 3D mandibular shape models and presented the application of the 3D mandibular template in cephalometric measurements. Optimal reference models determined from variations produced by PCA could be used for craniofacial patients with various types of skeletal shape.

  18. Development of 3D statistical mandible models for cephalometric measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Goo; Yi, Won Jin; Hwang, Soon Jung; Choi, Soon Chul; Lee, Sam Sun; Heo, Min Suk; Huh, Kyung Hoe; Kim, Tae Il [School of Dentistry, Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Helen; Yoo, Ji Hyun [Division of Multimedia Engineering, Seoul Women' s University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-09-15

    The aim of this study was to provide sex-matched three-dimensional (3D) statistical shape models of the mandible, which would provide cephalometric parameters for 3D treatment planning and cephalometric measurements in orthognathic surgery. The subjects used to create the 3D shape models of the mandible included 23 males and 23 females. The mandibles were segmented semi-automatically from 3D facial CT images. Each individual mandible shape was reconstructed as a 3D surface model, which was parameterized to establish correspondence between different individual surfaces. The principal component analysis (PCA) applied to all mandible shapes produced a mean model and characteristic models of variation. The cephalometric parameters were measured directly from the mean models to evaluate the 3D shape models. The means of the measured parameters were compared with those from other conventional studies. The male and female 3D statistical mean models were developed from 23 individual mandibles, respectively. The male and female characteristic shapes of variation produced by PCA showed a large variability included in the individual mandibles. The cephalometric measurements from the developed models were very close to those from some conventional studies. We described the construction of 3D mandibular shape models and presented the application of the 3D mandibular template in cephalometric measurements. Optimal reference models determined from variations produced by PCA could be used for craniofacial patients with various types of skeletal shape.

  19. Statistical sampling and modelling for cork oak and eucalyptus stands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This thesis focuses on the use of modern statistical methods to solve problems on sampling, optimal cutting time and agricultural modelling in Portuguese cork oak and eucalyptus stands. The results are contained in five chapters that have been submitted for publication

  20. Statistical Modeling of Energy Production by Photovoltaic Farms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Pelikán, Emil; Krč, Pavel; Eben, Kryštof; Musílek, P.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 9 (2011), s. 785-793 ISSN 1934-8975 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : electrical energy * solar energy * numerical weather prediction model * nonparametric regression * beta regression Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  1. Model selection for contingency tables with algebraic statistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krampe, A.; Kuhnt, S.; Gibilisco, P.; Riccimagno, E.; Rogantin, M.P.; Wynn, H.P.

    2009-01-01

    Goodness-of-fit tests based on chi-square approximations are commonly used in the analysis of contingency tables. Results from algebraic statistics combined with MCMC methods provide alternatives to the chi-square approximation. However, within a model selection procedure usually a large number of

  2. Syntactic discriminative language model rerankers for statistical machine translation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carter, S.; Monz, C.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a method that successfully exploits syntactic features for n-best translation candidate reranking using perceptrons. We motivate the utility of syntax by demonstrating the superior performance of parsers over n-gram language models in differentiating between Statistical

  3. Using statistical compatibility to derive advanced probabilistic fatigue models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fernández-Canteli, A.; Castillo, E.; López-Aenlle, M.; Seitl, Stanislav

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 1 (2010), s. 1131-1140 E-ISSN 1877-7058. [Fatigue 2010. Praha, 06.06.2010-11.06.2010] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : Fatigue models * Statistical compatibility * Functional equations Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics

  4. Statistical properties of the nuclear shell-model Hamiltonian

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, H.; Hussein, M.S.; Oliveira, N.A. de

    1986-01-01

    The statistical properties of realistic nuclear shell-model Hamiltonian are investigated in sd-shell nuclei. The probability distribution of the basic-vector amplitude is calculated and compared with the Porter-Thomas distribution. Relevance of the results to the calculation of the giant resonance mixing parameter is pointed out. (Author) [pt

  5. Statistical shape model with random walks for inner ear segmentation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pujadas, Esmeralda Ruiz; Kjer, Hans Martin; Piella, Gemma

    2016-01-01

    is required. We propose a new framework for segmentation of micro-CT cochlear images using random walks combined with a statistical shape model (SSM). The SSM allows us to constrain the less contrasted areas and ensures valid inner ear shape outputs. Additionally, a topology preservation method is proposed...

  6. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  7. A Statistical Model for the Estimation of Natural Gas Consumption

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vondráček, Jiří; Pelikán, Emil; Konár, Ondřej; Čermáková, Jana; Eben, Kryštof; Malý, Marek; Brabec, Marek

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 85, c. 5 (2008), s. 362-370 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300513 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : nonlinear regression * gas consumption modeling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.371, year: 2008

  8. Statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenjing; Sun, Jinqiu; Zhang, Yanning; Li, Haisen

    2016-03-01

    Photometric measurement is an important way to identify the space debris, but the present methods of photometric measurement have many constraints on star image and need complex image processing. Aiming at the problems, a statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement is proposed based on the global consistency of the star image, and the statistical information of star images is used to eliminate the measurement noises. First, the known stars on the star image are divided into training stars and testing stars. Then, the training stars are selected as the least squares fitting parameters to construct the photometric measurement model, and the testing stars are used to calculate the measurement accuracy of the photometric measurement model. Experimental results show that, the accuracy of the proposed photometric measurement model is about 0.1 magnitudes.

  9. Statistical models describing the energy signature of buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Thavlov, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Approximately one third of the primary energy production in Denmark is used for heating in buildings. Therefore efforts to accurately describe and improve energy performance of the building mass are very important. For this purpose statistical models describing the energy signature of a building, i...... or varying energy prices. The paper will give an overview of statistical methods and applied models based on experiments carried out in FlexHouse, which is an experimental building in SYSLAB, Risø DTU. The models are of different complexity and can provide estimates of physical quantities such as UA......-values, time constants of the building, and other parameters related to the heat dynamics. A method for selecting the most appropriate model for a given building is outlined and finally a perspective of the applications is given. Aknowledgements to the Danish Energy Saving Trust and the Interreg IV ``Vind i...

  10. Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brabec, M.; Jilek, K.

    2004-01-01

    A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements

  11. Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordua, Knud Skou

    of information is obeyed such that no unknown assumptions and biases influence the solution to the inverse problem. This involves a definition of the probabilistically formulated inverse problem, a discussion about how prior models can be established based on statistical information from sample models...... of the probabilistic formulation of the inverse problem. This function is based on an uncertainty model that describes the uncertainties related to the observed data. In a similar way, a formulation of the prior probability distribution that takes into account uncertainties related to the sample model statistics...... similar to observation uncertainties. We refer to the effect of these approximations as modeling errors. Examples that show how the modeling error is estimated are provided. Moreover, it is shown how these effects can be taken into account in the formulation of the posterior probability distribution...

  12. Bayesian Nonparametric Statistical Inference for Shock Models and Wear Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    also note that the results in Section 2 do not depend on the support of F .) This shock model have been studied by Esary, Marshall and Proschan (1973...Barlow and Proschan (1975), among others. The analogy of the shock model in risk and acturial analysis has been given by BUhlmann (1970, Chapter 2... Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 4, pp. 894-906. Billingsley, P. (1968), CONVERGENCE OF PROBABILITY MEASURES, John Wiley, New York. BUhlmann, H. (1970

  13. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  14. A Statistical Model for Synthesis of Detailed Facial Geometry

    OpenAIRE

    Golovinskiy, Aleksey; Matusik, Wojciech; Pfister, Hanspeter; Rusinkiewicz, Szymon; Funkhouser, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    Detailed surface geometry contributes greatly to the visual realism of 3D face models. However, acquiring high-resolution face geometry is often tedious and expensive. Consequently, most face models used in games, virtual reality, or computer vision look unrealistically smooth. In this paper, we introduce a new statistical technique for the analysis and synthesis of small three-dimensional facial features, such as wrinkles and pores. We acquire high-resolution face geometry for people across ...

  15. Parametric study for horizontal steam generator modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ovtcharova, I. [Energoproekt, Sofia (Bulgaria)

    1995-12-31

    In the presentation some of the calculated results of horizontal steam generator PGV - 440 modelling with RELAP5/Mod3 are described. Two nodalization schemes have been used with different components in the steam dome. A study of parameters variation on the steam generator work and calculated results is made in cases with separator and branch.

  16. Pitch Gestures in Generative Modeling of Music

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kristoffer

    2011-01-01

    Generative models of music are in need of performance and gesture additions, i.e. inclusions of subtle temporal and dynamic alterations, and gestures so as to render the music musical. While much of the research regarding music generation is based on music theory, the work presented here is based...

  17. Parametric study for horizontal steam generator modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ovtcharova, I [Energoproekt, Sofia (Bulgaria)

    1996-12-31

    In the presentation some of the calculated results of horizontal steam generator PGV - 440 modelling with RELAP5/Mod3 are described. Two nodalization schemes have been used with different components in the steam dome. A study of parameters variation on the steam generator work and calculated results is made in cases with separator and branch.

  18. Statistical characteristic in time-domain of direct current corona-generated audible noise from conductor in corona cage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xuebao, E-mail: lxb08357x@ncepu.edu.cn; Cui, Xiang, E-mail: x.cui@ncepu.edu.cn; Ma, Wenzuo; Bian, Xingming; Wang, Donglai [State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Lu, Tiebing, E-mail: tiebinglu@ncepu.edu.cn [Beijing Key Laboratory of High Voltage and EMC, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Hiziroglu, Huseyin [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Kettering University, Flint, Michigan 48504 (United States)

    2016-03-15

    The corona-generated audible noise (AN) has become one of decisive factors in the design of high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines. The AN from transmission lines can be attributed to sound pressure pulses which are generated by the multiple corona sources formed on the conductor, i.e., transmission lines. In this paper, a detailed time-domain characteristics of the sound pressure pulses, which are generated by the DC corona discharges formed over the surfaces of a stranded conductors, are investigated systematically in a laboratory settings using a corona cage structure. The amplitude of sound pressure pulse and its time intervals are extracted by observing a direct correlation between corona current pulses and corona-generated sound pressure pulses. Based on the statistical characteristics, a stochastic model is presented for simulating the sound pressure pulses due to DC corona discharges occurring on conductors. The proposed stochastic model is validated by comparing the calculated and measured A-weighted sound pressure level (SPL). The proposed model is then used to analyze the influence of the pulse amplitudes and pulse rate on the SPL. Furthermore, a mathematical relationship is found between the SPL and conductor diameter, electric field, and radial distance.

  19. Statistical characteristic in time-domain of direct current corona-generated audible noise from conductor in corona cage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xuebao; Cui, Xiang; Lu, Tiebing; Ma, Wenzuo; Bian, Xingming; Wang, Donglai; Hiziroglu, Huseyin

    2016-03-01

    The corona-generated audible noise (AN) has become one of decisive factors in the design of high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines. The AN from transmission lines can be attributed to sound pressure pulses which are generated by the multiple corona sources formed on the conductor, i.e., transmission lines. In this paper, a detailed time-domain characteristics of the sound pressure pulses, which are generated by the DC corona discharges formed over the surfaces of a stranded conductors, are investigated systematically in a laboratory settings using a corona cage structure. The amplitude of sound pressure pulse and its time intervals are extracted by observing a direct correlation between corona current pulses and corona-generated sound pressure pulses. Based on the statistical characteristics, a stochastic model is presented for simulating the sound pressure pulses due to DC corona discharges occurring on conductors. The proposed stochastic model is validated by comparing the calculated and measured A-weighted sound pressure level (SPL). The proposed model is then used to analyze the influence of the pulse amplitudes and pulse rate on the SPL. Furthermore, a mathematical relationship is found between the SPL and conductor diameter, electric field, and radial distance.

  20. Generalized Reduced Order Model Generation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — M4 Engineering proposes to develop a generalized reduced order model generation method. This method will allow for creation of reduced order aeroservoelastic state...

  1. WE-A-201-02: Modern Statistical Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niemierko, A.

    2016-06-15

    Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear

  2. WE-A-201-02: Modern Statistical Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemierko, A.

    2016-01-01

    Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear

  3. An exercise in model validation: Comparing univariate statistics and Monte Carlo-based multivariate statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weathers, J.B.; Luck, R.; Weathers, J.W.

    2009-01-01

    The complexity of mathematical models used by practicing engineers is increasing due to the growing availability of sophisticated mathematical modeling tools and ever-improving computational power. For this reason, the need to define a well-structured process for validating these models against experimental results has become a pressing issue in the engineering community. This validation process is partially characterized by the uncertainties associated with the modeling effort as well as the experimental results. The net impact of the uncertainties on the validation effort is assessed through the 'noise level of the validation procedure', which can be defined as an estimate of the 95% confidence uncertainty bounds for the comparison error between actual experimental results and model-based predictions of the same quantities of interest. Although general descriptions associated with the construction of the noise level using multivariate statistics exists in the literature, a detailed procedure outlining how to account for the systematic and random uncertainties is not available. In this paper, the methodology used to derive the covariance matrix associated with the multivariate normal pdf based on random and systematic uncertainties is examined, and a procedure used to estimate this covariance matrix using Monte Carlo analysis is presented. The covariance matrices are then used to construct approximate 95% confidence constant probability contours associated with comparison error results for a practical example. In addition, the example is used to show the drawbacks of using a first-order sensitivity analysis when nonlinear local sensitivity coefficients exist. Finally, the example is used to show the connection between the noise level of the validation exercise calculated using multivariate and univariate statistics.

  4. An exercise in model validation: Comparing univariate statistics and Monte Carlo-based multivariate statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weathers, J.B. [Shock, Noise, and Vibration Group, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, P.O. Box 149, Pascagoula, MS 39568 (United States)], E-mail: James.Weathers@ngc.com; Luck, R. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Mississippi State University, 210 Carpenter Engineering Building, P.O. Box ME, Mississippi State, MS 39762-5925 (United States)], E-mail: Luck@me.msstate.edu; Weathers, J.W. [Structural Analysis Group, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, P.O. Box 149, Pascagoula, MS 39568 (United States)], E-mail: Jeffrey.Weathers@ngc.com

    2009-11-15

    The complexity of mathematical models used by practicing engineers is increasing due to the growing availability of sophisticated mathematical modeling tools and ever-improving computational power. For this reason, the need to define a well-structured process for validating these models against experimental results has become a pressing issue in the engineering community. This validation process is partially characterized by the uncertainties associated with the modeling effort as well as the experimental results. The net impact of the uncertainties on the validation effort is assessed through the 'noise level of the validation procedure', which can be defined as an estimate of the 95% confidence uncertainty bounds for the comparison error between actual experimental results and model-based predictions of the same quantities of interest. Although general descriptions associated with the construction of the noise level using multivariate statistics exists in the literature, a detailed procedure outlining how to account for the systematic and random uncertainties is not available. In this paper, the methodology used to derive the covariance matrix associated with the multivariate normal pdf based on random and systematic uncertainties is examined, and a procedure used to estimate this covariance matrix using Monte Carlo analysis is presented. The covariance matrices are then used to construct approximate 95% confidence constant probability contours associated with comparison error results for a practical example. In addition, the example is used to show the drawbacks of using a first-order sensitivity analysis when nonlinear local sensitivity coefficients exist. Finally, the example is used to show the connection between the noise level of the validation exercise calculated using multivariate and univariate statistics.

  5. Modelling hadronic interactions in HEP MC generators

    CERN Document Server

    Skands, Peter

    2015-01-01

    HEP event generators aim to describe high-energy collisions in full exclusive detail. They combine perturbative matrix elements and parton showers with dynamical models of less well-understood phenomena such as hadronization, diffraction, and the so-called underlying event. We briefly summarise some of the main concepts relevant to the modelling of soft/inclusive hadron interactions in MC generators, in particular PYTHIA, with emphasis on questions recently highlighted by LHC data.

  6. Computer modelling of statistical properties of SASE FEL radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saldin, E. L.; Schneidmiller, E. A.; Yurkov, M. V.

    1997-01-01

    The paper describes an approach to computer modelling of statistical properties of the radiation from self amplified spontaneous emission free electron laser (SASE FEL). The present approach allows one to calculate the following statistical properties of the SASE FEL radiation: time and spectral field correlation functions, distribution of the fluctuations of the instantaneous radiation power, distribution of the energy in the electron bunch, distribution of the radiation energy after monochromator installed at the FEL amplifier exit and the radiation spectrum. All numerical results presented in the paper have been calculated for the 70 nm SASE FEL at the TESLA Test Facility being under construction at DESY

  7. Stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields models and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a graduate level introduction to various aspects of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields, this volume places a special emphasis on fundamental classes of models and algorithms as well as on their applications, for example in materials science, biology and genetics. This book has a strong focus on simulations and includes extensive codes in Matlab and R, which are widely used in the mathematical community. It can be regarded as a continuation of the recent volume 2068 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, where other issues of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields were considered, with a focus on asymptotic methods.

  8. GIA Model Statistics for GRACE Hydrology, Cryosphere, and Ocean Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caron, L.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Adhikari, S.; Nilsson, J.; Blewitt, G.

    2018-03-01

    We provide a new analysis of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) with the goal of assembling the model uncertainty statistics required for rigorously extracting trends in surface mass from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Such statistics are essential for deciphering sea level, ocean mass, and hydrological changes because the latter signals can be relatively small (≤2 mm/yr water height equivalent) over very large regions, such as major ocean basins and watersheds. With abundant new >7 year continuous measurements of vertical land motion (VLM) reported by Global Positioning System stations on bedrock and new relative sea level records, our new statistical evaluation of GIA uncertainties incorporates Bayesian methodologies. A unique aspect of the method is that both the ice history and 1-D Earth structure vary through a total of 128,000 forward models. We find that best fit models poorly capture the statistical inferences needed to correctly invert for lower mantle viscosity and that GIA uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty ascribed to trends from 14 years of GRACE data in polar regions.

  9. Interferometric data modelling: issues in realistic data generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, Soma

    2004-01-01

    This study describes algorithms developed for modelling interferometric noise in a realistic manner, i.e. incorporating non-stationarity that can be seen in the data from the present generation of interferometers. The noise model is based on individual component models (ICM) with the application of auto regressive moving average (ARMA) models. The data obtained from the model are vindicated by standard statistical tests, e.g. the KS test and Akaike minimum criterion. The results indicate a very good fit. The advantage of using ARMA for ICMs is that the model parameters can be controlled and hence injection and efficiency studies can be conducted in a more controlled environment. This realistic non-stationary noise generator is intended to be integrated within the data monitoring tool framework

  10. A Model Fit Statistic for Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Tie; Wells, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    Investigating the fit of a parametric model is an important part of the measurement process when implementing item response theory (IRT), but research examining it is limited. A general nonparametric approach for detecting model misfit, introduced by J. Douglas and A. S. Cohen (2001), has exhibited promising results for the two-parameter logistic…

  11. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  12. Approximate Inference and Deep Generative Models

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    Advances in deep generative models are at the forefront of deep learning research because of the promise they offer for allowing data-efficient learning, and for model-based reinforcement learning. In this talk I'll review a few standard methods for approximate inference and introduce modern approximations which allow for efficient large-scale training of a wide variety of generative models. Finally, I'll demonstrate several important application of these models to density estimation, missing data imputation, data compression and planning.

  13. The Bayesian statistical decision theory applied to the optimization of generating set maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

    1994-11-01

    The difficulty in RCM methodology is the allocation of a new periodicity of preventive maintenance on one equipment when a critical failure has been identified: until now this new allocation has been based on the engineer's judgment, and one must wait for a full cycle of feedback experience before to validate it. Statistical decision theory could be a more rational alternative for the optimization of preventive maintenance periodicity. This methodology has been applied to inspection and maintenance optimization of cylinders of diesel generator engines of 900 MW nuclear plants, and has shown that previous preventive maintenance periodicity can be extended. (authors). 8 refs., 5 figs

  14. Statistical model selection with “Big Data”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgen A. Doornik

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems including an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases and selecting by inappropriate methods. We consider the many important requirements when searching for a data-based relationship using Big Data, and the possible role of Autometrics in that context. Paramount considerations include embedding relationships in general initial models, possibly restricting the number of variables to be selected over by non-statistical criteria (the formulation problem, using good quality data on all variables, analyzed with tight significance levels by a powerful selection procedure, retaining available theory insights (the selection problem while testing for relationships being well specified and invariant to shifts in explanatory variables (the evaluation problem, using a viable approach that resolves the computational problem of immense numbers of possible models.

  15. Experimental, statistical, and biological models of radon carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, F.T.

    1991-09-01

    Risk models developed for underground miners have not been consistently validated in studies of populations exposed to indoor radon. Imprecision in risk estimates results principally from differences between exposures in mines as compared to domestic environments and from uncertainties about the interaction between cigarette-smoking and exposure to radon decay products. Uncertainties in extrapolating miner data to domestic exposures can be reduced by means of a broad-based health effects research program that addresses the interrelated issues of exposure, respiratory tract dose, carcinogenesis (molecular/cellular and animal studies, plus developing biological and statistical models), and the relationship of radon to smoking and other copollutant exposures. This article reviews experimental animal data on radon carcinogenesis observed primarily in rats at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. Recent experimental and mechanistic carcinogenesis models of exposures to radon, uranium ore dust, and cigarette smoke are presented with statistical analyses of animal data. 20 refs., 1 fig

  16. Multimesonic decays of charmonium states in the statistical quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montvay, I.; Toth, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    The data known at present of multimesonic decays of chi and psi states are fitted in a statistical quark model, in which the matrix elements are assumed to be constant and resonances as well as both strong and second order electromagnetic processes are taken into account. The experimental data are well reproduced by the model. Unknown branching ratios for the rest of multimesonic channels are predicted. The fit leaves about 40% for baryonic and radiative channels in the case of J/psi(3095). The fitted parameters of the J/psi decays are used to predict the mesonic decays of the pseudoscalar eta c. The statistical quark model seems to allow the calculation of competitive multiparticle processes for the studied decays. (D.P.)

  17. Statistical 3D damage accumulation model for ion implant simulators

    CERN Document Server

    Hernandez-Mangas, J M; Enriquez, L E; Bailon, L; Barbolla, J; Jaraiz, M

    2003-01-01

    A statistical 3D damage accumulation model, based on the modified Kinchin-Pease formula, for ion implant simulation has been included in our physically based ion implantation code. It has only one fitting parameter for electronic stopping and uses 3D electron density distributions for different types of targets including compound semiconductors. Also, a statistical noise reduction mechanism based on the dose division is used. The model has been adapted to be run under parallel execution in order to speed up the calculation in 3D structures. Sequential ion implantation has been modelled including previous damage profiles. It can also simulate the implantation of molecular and cluster projectiles. Comparisons of simulated doping profiles with experimental SIMS profiles are presented. Also comparisons between simulated amorphization and experimental RBS profiles are shown. An analysis of sequential versus parallel processing is provided.

  18. Statistical 3D damage accumulation model for ion implant simulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Mangas, J.M.; Lazaro, J.; Enriquez, L.; Bailon, L.; Barbolla, J.; Jaraiz, M.

    2003-01-01

    A statistical 3D damage accumulation model, based on the modified Kinchin-Pease formula, for ion implant simulation has been included in our physically based ion implantation code. It has only one fitting parameter for electronic stopping and uses 3D electron density distributions for different types of targets including compound semiconductors. Also, a statistical noise reduction mechanism based on the dose division is used. The model has been adapted to be run under parallel execution in order to speed up the calculation in 3D structures. Sequential ion implantation has been modelled including previous damage profiles. It can also simulate the implantation of molecular and cluster projectiles. Comparisons of simulated doping profiles with experimental SIMS profiles are presented. Also comparisons between simulated amorphization and experimental RBS profiles are shown. An analysis of sequential versus parallel processing is provided

  19. SoS contract verification using statistical model checking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mignogna

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Exhaustive formal verification for systems of systems (SoS is impractical and cannot be applied on a large scale. In this paper we propose to use statistical model checking for efficient verification of SoS. We address three relevant aspects for systems of systems: 1 the model of the SoS, which includes stochastic aspects; 2 the formalization of the SoS requirements in the form of contracts; 3 the tool-chain to support statistical model checking for SoS. We adapt the SMC technique for application to heterogeneous SoS. We extend the UPDM/SysML specification language to express the SoS requirements that the implemented strategies over the SoS must satisfy. The requirements are specified with a new contract language specifically designed for SoS, targeting a high-level English- pattern language, but relying on an accurate semantics given by the standard temporal logics. The contracts are verified against the UPDM/SysML specification using the Statistical Model Checker (SMC PLASMA combined with the simulation engine DESYRE, which integrates heterogeneous behavioral models through the functional mock-up interface (FMI standard. The tool-chain allows computing an estimation of the satisfiability of the contracts by the SoS. The results help the system architect to trade-off different solutions to guide the evolution of the SoS.

  20. A Study on Grid-Square Statistics Based Estimation of Regional Electricity Demand and Regional Potential Capacity of Distributed Generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Takeyoshi; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Suzuoki, Yasuo

    We established a procedure for estimating regional electricity demand and regional potential capacity of distributed generators (DGs) by using a grid square statistics data set. A photovoltaic power system (PV system) for residential use and a co-generation system (CGS) for both residential and commercial use were taken into account. As an example, the result regarding Aichi prefecture was presented in this paper. The statistical data of the number of households by family-type and the number of employees by business category for about 4000 grid-square with 1km × 1km area was used to estimate the floor space or the electricity demand distribution. The rooftop area available for installing PV systems was also estimated with the grid-square statistics data set. Considering the relation between a capacity of existing CGS and a scale-index of building where CGS is installed, the potential capacity of CGS was estimated for three business categories, i.e. hotel, hospital, store. In some regions, the potential capacity of PV systems was estimated to be about 10,000kW/km2, which corresponds to the density of the existing area with intensive installation of PV systems. Finally, we discussed the ratio of regional potential capacity of DGs to regional maximum electricity demand for deducing the appropriate capacity of DGs in the model of future electricity distribution system.

  1. Structural reliability in context of statistical uncertainties and modelling discrepancies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pendola, Maurice

    2000-01-01

    Structural reliability methods have been largely improved during the last years and have showed their ability to deal with uncertainties during the design stage or to optimize the functioning and the maintenance of industrial installations. They are based on a mechanical modeling of the structural behavior according to the considered failure modes and on a probabilistic representation of input parameters of this modeling. In practice, only limited statistical information is available to build the probabilistic representation and different sophistication levels of the mechanical modeling may be introduced. Thus, besides the physical randomness, other uncertainties occur in such analyses. The aim of this work is triple: 1. at first, to propose a methodology able to characterize the statistical uncertainties due to the limited number of data in order to take them into account in the reliability analyses. The obtained reliability index measures the confidence in the structure considering the statistical information available. 2. Then, to show a methodology leading to reliability results evaluated from a particular mechanical modeling but by using a less sophisticated one. The objective is then to decrease the computational efforts required by the reference modeling. 3. Finally, to propose partial safety factors that are evolving as a function of the number of statistical data available and as a function of the sophistication level of the mechanical modeling that is used. The concepts are illustrated in the case of a welded pipe and in the case of a natural draught cooling tower. The results show the interest of the methodologies in an industrial context. [fr

  2. A globally calibrated scheme for generating daily meteorology from monthly statistics: Global-WGEN (GWGEN) v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Philipp S.; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2017-10-01

    While a wide range of Earth system processes occur at daily and even subdaily timescales, many global vegetation and other terrestrial dynamics models historically used monthly meteorological forcing both to reduce computational demand and because global datasets were lacking. Recently, dynamic land surface modeling has moved towards resolving daily and subdaily processes, and global datasets containing daily and subdaily meteorology have become available. These meteorological datasets, however, cover only the instrumental era of the last approximately 120 years at best, are subject to considerable uncertainty, and represent extremely large data files with associated computational costs of data input/output and file transfer. For periods before the recent past or in the future, global meteorological forcing can be provided by climate model output, but the quality of these data at high temporal resolution is low, particularly for daily precipitation frequency and amount. Here, we present GWGEN, a globally applicable statistical weather generator for the temporal downscaling of monthly climatology to daily meteorology. Our weather generator is parameterized using a global meteorological database and simulates daily values of five common variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN is lightweight, modular, and requires a minimal set of monthly mean variables as input. The weather generator may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models. While GWGEN does not currently perform spatially autocorrelated multi-point downscaling of daily weather, this additional functionality could be implemented in future versions.

  3. A Census of Statistics Requirements at U.S. Journalism Programs and a Model for a "Statistics for Journalism" Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Justin D.

    2017-01-01

    This essay presents data from a census of statistics requirements and offerings at all 4-year journalism programs in the United States (N = 369) and proposes a model of a potential course in statistics for journalism majors. The author proposes that three philosophies underlie a statistics course for journalism students. Such a course should (a)…

  4. A statistical model for radar images of agricultural scenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, V. S.; Shanmugan, K. S.; Holtzman, J. C.; Stiles, J. A.

    1982-01-01

    The presently derived and validated statistical model for radar images containing many different homogeneous fields predicts the probability density functions of radar images of entire agricultural scenes, thereby allowing histograms of large scenes composed of a variety of crops to be described. Seasat-A SAR images of agricultural scenes are accurately predicted by the model on the basis of three assumptions: each field has the same SNR, all target classes cover approximately the same area, and the true reflectivity characterizing each individual target class is a uniformly distributed random variable. The model is expected to be useful in the design of data processing algorithms and for scene analysis using radar images.

  5. Calculation of Tajima's D and other neutrality test statistics from low depth next-generation sequencing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korneliussen, Thorfinn Sand; Moltke, Ida; Albrechtsen, Anders

    2013-01-01

    A number of different statistics are used for detecting natural selection using DNA sequencing data, including statistics that are summaries of the frequency spectrum, such as Tajima's D. These statistics are now often being applied in the analysis of Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) data. Howeve......, estimates of frequency spectra from NGS data are strongly affected by low sequencing coverage; the inherent technology dependent variation in sequencing depth causes systematic differences in the value of the statistic among genomic regions....

  6. Discrete ellipsoidal statistical BGK model and Burnett equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu-Dong; Xu, Ai-Guo; Zhang, Guang-Cai; Chen, Zhi-Hua; Wang, Pei

    2018-06-01

    A new discrete Boltzmann model, the discrete ellipsoidal statistical Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (ESBGK) model, is proposed to simulate nonequilibrium compressible flows. Compared with the original discrete BGK model, the discrete ES-BGK has a flexible Prandtl number. For the discrete ES-BGK model in the Burnett level, two kinds of discrete velocity model are introduced and the relations between nonequilibrium quantities and the viscous stress and heat flux in the Burnett level are established. The model is verified via four benchmark tests. In addition, a new idea is introduced to recover the actual distribution function through the macroscopic quantities and their space derivatives. The recovery scheme works not only for discrete Boltzmann simulation but also for hydrodynamic ones, for example, those based on the Navier-Stokes or the Burnett equations.

  7. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

    KAUST Repository

    Song, S. G.

    2013-12-24

    Ground motion prediction is an essential element in seismic hazard and risk analysis. Empirical ground motion prediction approaches have been widely used in the community, but efficient simulation-based ground motion prediction methods are needed to complement empirical approaches, especially in the regions with limited data constraints. Recently, dynamic rupture modelling has been successfully adopted in physics-based source and ground motion modelling, but it is still computationally demanding and many input parameters are not well constrained by observational data. Pseudo-dynamic source modelling keeps the form of kinematic modelling with its computational efficiency, but also tries to emulate the physics of source process. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework that governs the finite-fault rupture process with 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters in order to quantify the variability of finite source models for future scenario events. We test this method by extracting 1-point and 2-point statistics from dynamically derived source models and simulating a number of rupture scenarios, given target 1-point and 2-point statistics. We propose a new rupture model generator for stochastic source modelling with the covariance matrix constructed from target 2-point statistics, that is, auto- and cross-correlations. Our sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to 1-point and 2-point statistics of source parameters provides insights into relations between statistical rupture properties and ground motions. We observe that larger standard deviation and stronger correlation produce stronger peak ground motions in general. The proposed new source modelling approach will contribute to understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics in a more quantitative and systematic way.

  8. Statistics of a neuron model driven by asymmetric colored noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Droste, Felix; Lindner, Benjamin

    2015-02-01

    Irregular firing of neurons can be modeled as a stochastic process. Here we study the perfect integrate-and-fire neuron driven by dichotomous noise, a Markovian process that jumps between two states (i.e., possesses a non-Gaussian statistics) and exhibits nonvanishing temporal correlations (i.e., represents a colored noise). Specifically, we consider asymmetric dichotomous noise with two different transition rates. Using a first-passage-time formulation, we derive exact expressions for the probability density and the serial correlation coefficient of the interspike interval (time interval between two subsequent neural action potentials) and the power spectrum of the spike train. Furthermore, we extend the model by including additional Gaussian white noise, and we give approximations for the interspike interval (ISI) statistics in this case. Numerical simulations are used to validate the exact analytical results for pure dichotomous noise, and to test the approximations of the ISI statistics when Gaussian white noise is included. The results may help to understand how correlations and asymmetry of noise and signals in nerve cells shape neuronal firing statistics.

  9. Spatio-temporal statistical models with applications to atmospheric processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wikle, C.K.

    1996-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation is presented as three self-contained papers. An introductory chapter considers traditional spatio-temporal statistical methods used in the atmospheric sciences from a statistical perspective. Although this section is primarily a review, many of the statistical issues considered have not been considered in the context of these methods and several open questions are posed. The first paper attempts to determine a means of characterizing the semiannual oscillation (SAO) spatial variation in the northern hemisphere extratropical height field. It was discovered that the midlatitude SAO in 500hPa geopotential height could be explained almost entirely as a result of spatial and temporal asymmetries in the annual variation of stationary eddies. It was concluded that the mechanism for the SAO in the northern hemisphere is a result of land-sea contrasts. The second paper examines the seasonal variability of mixed Rossby-gravity waves (MRGW) in lower stratospheric over the equatorial Pacific. Advanced cyclostationary time series techniques were used for analysis. It was found that there are significant twice-yearly peaks in MRGW activity. Analyses also suggested a convergence of horizontal momentum flux associated with these waves. In the third paper, a new spatio-temporal statistical model is proposed that attempts to consider the influence of both temporal and spatial variability. This method is mainly concerned with prediction in space and time, and provides a spatially descriptive and temporally dynamic model

  10. Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Iannazzo

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.

  11. Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.

    2017-09-01

    There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across

  12. Steam Generator Group Project. Progress report on data acquisition/statistical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doctor, P.G.; Buchanan, J.A.; McIntyre, J.M.; Hof, P.J.; Ercanbrack, S.S.

    1984-01-01

    A major task of the Steam Generator Group Project (SGGP) is to establish the reliability of the eddy current inservice inspections of PWR steam generator tubing, by comparing the eddy current data to the actual physical condition of the tubes via destructive analyses. This report describes the plans for the computer systems needed to acquire, store and analyze the diverse data to be collected during the project. The real-time acquisition of the baseline eddy current inspection data will be handled using a specially designed data acquisition computer system based on a Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) PDP-11/44. The data will be archived in digital form for use after the project is completed. Data base management and statistical analyses will be done on a DEC VAX-11/780. Color graphics will be heavily used to summarize the data and the results of the analyses. The report describes the data that will be taken during the project and the statistical methods that will be used to analyze the data. 7 figures, 2 tables

  13. Long Memory Models to Generate Synthetic Hydrological Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Armando de Almeida Pereira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, much of the energy production comes from hydroelectric plants whose planning is not trivial due to the strong dependence on rainfall regimes. This planning is accomplished through optimization models that use inputs such as synthetic hydrologic series generated from the statistical model PAR(p (periodic autoregressive. Recently, Brazil began the search for alternative models able to capture the effects that the traditional model PAR(p does not incorporate, such as long memory effects. Long memory in a time series can be defined as a significant dependence between lags separated by a long period of time. Thus, this research develops a study of the effects of long dependence in the series of streamflow natural energy in the South subsystem, in order to estimate a long memory model capable of generating synthetic hydrologic series.

  14. Generate an Argument: An Instructional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Victor; Grooms, Jonathon

    2010-01-01

    The Generate an Argument instructional model was designed to engage students in scientific argumentation. By using this model, students develop complex reasoning and critical-thinking skills, understand the nature and development of scientific knowledge, and improve their communication skills (Duschl and Osborne 2002). This article describes the…

  15. Workflow Fault Tree Generation Through Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

    2014-01-01

    We present a framework for the automated generation of fault trees from models of realworld process workflows, expressed in a formalised subset of the popular Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) language. To capture uncertainty and unreliability in workflows, we extend this formalism...

  16. Efficient Modelling and Generation of Markov Automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koutny, M.; Timmer, Mark; Ulidowski, I.; Katoen, Joost P.; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

    This paper introduces a framework for the efficient modelling and generation of Markov automata. It consists of (1) the data-rich process-algebraic language MAPA, allowing concise modelling of systems with nondeterminism, probability and Markovian timing; (2) a restricted form of the language, the

  17. Statistical analysis of events related to emergency diesel generators failures in the nuclear industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kančev, Duško, E-mail: dusko.kancev@ec.europa.eu [European Commission, DG-JRC, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Duchac, Alexander; Zerger, Benoit [European Commission, DG-JRC, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und-Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Schwetnergasse 1, 50667 Köln (Germany); Wattrelos, Didier [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), BP 17 - 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France)

    2014-07-01

    Highlights: • Analysis of operating experience related to emergency diesel generators events at NPPs. • Four abundant operating experience databases screened. • Delineating important insights and conclusions based on the operating experience. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at studying the operating experience related to emergency diesel generators (EDGs) events at nuclear power plants collected from the past 20 years. Events related to EDGs failures and/or unavailability as well as all the supporting equipment are in the focus of the analysis. The selected operating experience was analyzed in detail in order to identify the type of failures, attributes that contributed to the failure, failure modes potential or real, discuss risk relevance, summarize important lessons learned, and provide recommendations. The study in this particular paper is tightly related to the performing of statistical analysis of the operating experience. For the purpose of this study EDG failure is defined as EDG failure to function on demand (i.e. fail to start, fail to run) or during testing, or an unavailability of an EDG, except of unavailability due to regular maintenance. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases as well as the operating experience contained in the IAEA/NEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports were screened. The screening methodology applied for each of the four different databases is presented. Further on, analysis aimed at delineating the causes, root causes, contributing factors and consequences are performed. A statistical analysis was performed related to the chronology of events, types of failures, the operational circumstances of detection of the failure and the affected components/subsystems. The conclusions and results of the statistical analysis are discussed. The main findings concerning the testing

  18. Statistical analysis of events related to emergency diesel generators failures in the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kančev, Duško; Duchac, Alexander; Zerger, Benoit; Maqua, Michael; Wattrelos, Didier

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Analysis of operating experience related to emergency diesel generators events at NPPs. • Four abundant operating experience databases screened. • Delineating important insights and conclusions based on the operating experience. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at studying the operating experience related to emergency diesel generators (EDGs) events at nuclear power plants collected from the past 20 years. Events related to EDGs failures and/or unavailability as well as all the supporting equipment are in the focus of the analysis. The selected operating experience was analyzed in detail in order to identify the type of failures, attributes that contributed to the failure, failure modes potential or real, discuss risk relevance, summarize important lessons learned, and provide recommendations. The study in this particular paper is tightly related to the performing of statistical analysis of the operating experience. For the purpose of this study EDG failure is defined as EDG failure to function on demand (i.e. fail to start, fail to run) or during testing, or an unavailability of an EDG, except of unavailability due to regular maintenance. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases as well as the operating experience contained in the IAEA/NEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports were screened. The screening methodology applied for each of the four different databases is presented. Further on, analysis aimed at delineating the causes, root causes, contributing factors and consequences are performed. A statistical analysis was performed related to the chronology of events, types of failures, the operational circumstances of detection of the failure and the affected components/subsystems. The conclusions and results of the statistical analysis are discussed. The main findings concerning the testing

  19. Modelling gas generation in radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agg, P.J.

    1993-02-01

    In a repository containing low- and intermediate-level waste, gas generation will occur principally by the coupled processes of metal corrosion and microbial degradation of cellulosic waste. This Paper describes a mathematical model design to address gas generation by these mechanisms. The metal corrosion model incorporates a three-stage process encompassing both aerobic and anaerobic corrosion regimes; the microbial degradation model simulates the activities of eight different microbial populations, which are maintained as functions both of pH and of the concentrations of particular chemical species. Gas concentrations have been measured over a period of three years in large-scale drum experiments designed to simulate repository conditions. Model predictions are confirmed against the experimental measurements, and a prediction is then made of gas concentrations and generation rates over an assessment period of one million years in a radioactive waste repository. (author)

  20. Modelling gas generation in radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agg, P.J.

    1992-07-01

    In a repository containing low- and intermediate-level waste, gas generation will occur principally by the coupled processes of metal corrosion and microbial degradation of cellulosic waste. This paper describes a mathematical model designed to address gas generation by these mechanisms. The metal corrosion model incorporates a three-stage process encompassing both aerobic and anaerobic corrosion regimes; the microbial degradation model simulates the activities of eight different microbial populations, which are maintained as functions both of pH and of the concentrations of particular chemical species. Gas concentrations have been measured over a period of three years in large-scale drum experiments designed to simulate repository conditions. Model predictions are confirmed against the experimental measurements, and a prediction is then made of gas concentrations and generation rates over an assessment period of one million years in a radioactive waste repository. (Author)

  1. Probing the exchange statistics of one-dimensional anyon models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greschner, Sebastian; Cardarelli, Lorenzo; Santos, Luis

    2018-05-01

    We propose feasible scenarios for revealing the modified exchange statistics in one-dimensional anyon models in optical lattices based on an extension of the multicolor lattice-depth modulation scheme introduced in [Phys. Rev. A 94, 023615 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevA.94.023615]. We show that the fast modulation of a two-component fermionic lattice gas in the presence a magnetic field gradient, in combination with additional resonant microwave fields, allows for the quantum simulation of hardcore anyon models with periodic boundary conditions. Such a semisynthetic ring setup allows for realizing an interferometric arrangement sensitive to the anyonic statistics. Moreover, we show as well that simple expansion experiments may reveal the formation of anomalously bound pairs resulting from the anyonic exchange.

  2. Statistical inference to advance network models in epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, David; Bansal, Shweta; Hunter, David R

    2011-03-01

    Contact networks are playing an increasingly important role in the study of epidemiology. Most of the existing work in this area has focused on considering the effect of underlying network structure on epidemic dynamics by using tools from probability theory and computer simulation. This work has provided much insight on the role that heterogeneity in host contact patterns plays on infectious disease dynamics. Despite the important understanding afforded by the probability and simulation paradigm, this approach does not directly address important questions about the structure of contact networks such as what is the best network model for a particular mode of disease transmission, how parameter values of a given model should be estimated, or how precisely the data allow us to estimate these parameter values. We argue that these questions are best answered within a statistical framework and discuss the role of statistical inference in estimating contact networks from epidemiological data. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling of asphalt-rubber rotational viscosity by statistical analysis and neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciano Pivoto Specht

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available It is of a great importance to know binders' viscosity in order to perform handling, mixing, application processes and asphalt mixes compaction in highway surfacing. This paper presents the results of viscosity measurement in asphalt-rubber binders prepared in laboratory. The binders were prepared varying the rubber content, rubber particle size, duration and temperature of mixture, all following a statistical design plan. The statistical analysis and artificial neural networks were used to create mathematical models for prediction of the binders viscosity. The comparison between experimental data and simulated results with the generated models showed best performance of the neural networks analysis in contrast to the statistic models. The results indicated that the rubber content and duration of mixture have major influence on the observed viscosity for the considered interval of parameters variation.

  4. Statistical models of a gas diffusion electrode: II. Current resistent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proksch, D B; Winsel, O W

    1965-07-01

    The authors describe an apparatus for measuring the flow resistance of gas diffusion electrodes which is a mechanical analog of the Wheatstone bridge for measuring electric resistance. The flow resistance of a circular DSK electrode sheet, consisting of two covering layers and a working layer between them, was measured as a function of the gas pressure. While the pressure first was increased and then decreased, a hysteresis occurred, which is discussed and explained by a statistical model of a porous electrode.

  5. A Statistical Model for Soliton Particle Interaction in Plasmas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dysthe, K. B.; Pécseli, Hans; Truelsen, J.

    1986-01-01

    A statistical model for soliton-particle interaction is presented. A master equation is derived for the time evolution of the particle velocity distribution as induced by resonant interaction with Korteweg-de Vries solitons. The detailed energy balance during the interaction subsequently determines...... the evolution of the soliton amplitude distribution. The analysis applies equally well for weakly nonlinear plasma waves in a strongly magnetized waveguide, or for ion acoustic waves propagating in one-dimensional systems....

  6. Statistical model of a gas diffusion electrode. III. Photomicrograph study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winsel, A W

    1965-12-01

    A linear section through a gas diffusion electrode produces a certain distribution function of sinews with the pores. From this distribution function some qualities of the pore structure are derived, and an automatic device to determine the distribution function is described. With a statistical model of a gas diffusion electrode the behavior of a DSK electrode is discussed and compared with earlier measurements of the flow resistance of this material.

  7. A statistical model of structure functions and quantum chromodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mac, E.; Ugaz, E.; Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria, Lima

    1989-01-01

    We consider a model for the x-dependence of the quark distributions in the proton. Within the context of simple statistical assumptions, we obtain the parton densities in the infinite momentum frame. In a second step lowest order QCD corrections are incorporated to these distributions. Crude, but reasonable, agreement with experiment is found for the F 2 , valence and q, anti q distributions for x> or approx.0.2. (orig.)

  8. Modeling the basic superconductor thermodynamical-statistical characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palenskis, V.; Maknys, K.

    1999-01-01

    In accordance with the Landau second-order phase transition and other thermodynamical-statistical relations for superconductors, and using the energy gap as an order parameter in the electron free energy presentation, the fundamental characteristics of electrons, such as the free energy, the total energy, the energy gap, the entropy, and the heat capacity dependences on temperature were obtained. The obtained modeling results, in principle, well reflect the basic low- and high-temperature superconductor characteristics

  9. Environmental radionuclide concentrations: statistical model to determine uniformity of distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cawley, C.N.; Fenyves, E.J.; Spitzberg, D.B.; Wiorkowski, J.; Chehroudi, M.T.

    1980-01-01

    In the evaluation of data from environmental sampling and measurement, a basic question is whether the radionuclide (or pollutant) is distributed uniformly. Since physical measurements have associated errors, it is inappropriate to consider the measurements alone in this determination. Hence, a statistical model has been developed. It consists of a weighted analysis of variance with subsequent t-tests between weighted and independent means. A computer program to perform the calculations is included

  10. Statistical and non statistical models for delayed neutron emission: applications to nuclei near A = 90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Oliveira, Z.M.

    1980-01-01

    A detailed analysis of the simple statistical model description for delayed neutron emission of 87 Br, 137 I, 85 As and 135 Sb has been performed. In agreement with experimental findings, structure in the #betta#-strength function is required to reproduce the envelope of the neutron spectrum from 87 Br. For 85 As and 135 Sb the model is found incapable of simultaneously reproducing envelopes of delayed neutron spectra and neutron branching ratios to excited states in the final nuclei for any choice of #betta#-strength function. The results indicate that partial widths for neutron emission are not compatible with optical-model transmission coefficients. The simple shell model with pairing is shown to qualitatively describe the main features of the #betta#-strength functions for decay of 87 Br and 91 93 95 97 Rb. It is found that the location of apparent resonances in the experimental data are in rough agreement with the location of centroids of strength calculated with this model. An extension of the shell model picture which includes the Gamow-Teller residual interaction is used to investigate decay properties of 84 86 As, 86 92 Br and 88 102 Rb. For a realistic choice of interaction strength, the half lives of these isotopes are fairly well reproduced and semiquantitative agreement with experimental #betta#-strength functions is found. Delayed neutron emission probabilities are reproduced for precursors nearer stability with systematic deviations being observed for the heavier nuclei. Contrary to the assumption of a structureless Gamow-Teller giant resonance as embodied gross theory of #betta#-decay, we find that structures in the tail of the Gamow-Teller giant resonances are expected which strongly influence the decay properties of nuclides in this region

  11. Statistical methods for mechanistic model validation: Salt Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggett, D.L.

    1988-07-01

    As part of the Department of Energy's Salt Repository Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is studying the emplacement of nuclear waste containers in a salt repository. One objective of the SRP program is to develop an overall waste package component model which adequately describes such phenomena as container corrosion, waste form leaching, spent fuel degradation, etc., which are possible in the salt repository environment. The form of this model will be proposed, based on scientific principles and relevant salt repository conditions with supporting data. The model will be used to predict the future characteristics of the near field environment. This involves several different submodels such as the amount of time it takes a brine solution to contact a canister in the repository, how long it takes a canister to corrode and expose its contents to the brine, the leach rate of the contents of the canister, etc. These submodels are often tested in a laboratory and should be statistically validated (in this context, validate means to demonstrate that the model adequately describes the data) before they can be incorporated into the waste package component model. This report describes statistical methods for validating these models. 13 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  12. A generalized statistical model for the size distribution of wealth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clementi, F; Gallegati, M; Kaniadakis, G

    2012-01-01

    In a recent paper in this journal (Clementi et al 2009 J. Stat. Mech. P02037), we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes, having its roots in the framework of the κ-generalized statistical mechanics. The performance of the κ-generalized distribution was checked against real data on personal income for the United States in 2003. In this paper we extend our previous model so as to be able to account for the distribution of wealth. Probabilistic functions and inequality measures of this generalized model for wealth distribution are obtained in closed form. In order to check the validity of the proposed model, we analyze the US household wealth distributions from 1984 to 2009 and conclude an excellent agreement with the data that is superior to any other model already known in the literature. (paper)

  13. A generalized statistical model for the size distribution of wealth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

    2012-12-01

    In a recent paper in this journal (Clementi et al 2009 J. Stat. Mech. P02037), we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes, having its roots in the framework of the κ-generalized statistical mechanics. The performance of the κ-generalized distribution was checked against real data on personal income for the United States in 2003. In this paper we extend our previous model so as to be able to account for the distribution of wealth. Probabilistic functions and inequality measures of this generalized model for wealth distribution are obtained in closed form. In order to check the validity of the proposed model, we analyze the US household wealth distributions from 1984 to 2009 and conclude an excellent agreement with the data that is superior to any other model already known in the literature.

  14. Generating Performance Models for Irregular Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friese, Ryan D.; Tallent, Nathan R.; Vishnu, Abhinav; Kerbyson, Darren J.; Hoisie, Adolfy

    2017-05-30

    Many applications have irregular behavior --- non-uniform input data, input-dependent solvers, irregular memory accesses, unbiased branches --- that cannot be captured using today's automated performance modeling techniques. We describe new hierarchical critical path analyses for the \\Palm model generation tool. To create a model's structure, we capture tasks along representative MPI critical paths. We create a histogram of critical tasks with parameterized task arguments and instance counts. To model each task, we identify hot instruction-level sub-paths and model each sub-path based on data flow, instruction scheduling, and data locality. We describe application models that generate accurate predictions for strong scaling when varying CPU speed, cache speed, memory speed, and architecture. We present results for the Sweep3D neutron transport benchmark; Page Rank on multiple graphs; Support Vector Machine with pruning; and PFLOTRAN's reactive flow/transport solver with domain-induced load imbalance.

  15. Wolf Creek Generating Station containment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, D.H.; Neises, G.J.; Howard, M.L.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a CONTEMPT-LT/28 containment model that has been developed by Wolf Creek Nuclear Operating Corporation (WCNOC) to predict containment pressure and temperature behavior during the postulated events at Wolf Creek Generating Station (WCGS). The model has been validated using data provided in the WCGS Updated Safety Analysis Report (USAR). CONTEMPT-LT/28 model has been used extensively at WCGS to support plant operations, and recently, to support its 4.5% thermal power uprate project

  16. UPPAAL-SMC: Statistical Model Checking for Priced Timed Automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bulychev, Petr; David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2012-01-01

    on a series of extensions of the statistical model checking approach generalized to handle real-time systems and estimate undecidable problems. U PPAAL - SMC comes together with a friendly user interface that allows a user to specify complex problems in an efficient manner as well as to get feedback...... in the form of probability distributions and compare probabilities to analyze performance aspects of systems. The focus of the survey is on the evolution of the tool – including modeling and specification formalisms as well as techniques applied – together with applications of the tool to case studies....

  17. Statistical mechanics of attractor neural network models with synaptic depression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igarashi, Yasuhiko; Oizumi, Masafumi; Otsubo, Yosuke; Nagata, Kenji; Okada, Masato

    2009-01-01

    Synaptic depression is known to control gain for presynaptic inputs. Since cortical neurons receive thousands of presynaptic inputs, and their outputs are fed into thousands of other neurons, the synaptic depression should influence macroscopic properties of neural networks. We employ simple neural network models to explore the macroscopic effects of synaptic depression. Systems with the synaptic depression cannot be analyzed due to asymmetry of connections with the conventional equilibrium statistical-mechanical approach. Thus, we first propose a microscopic dynamical mean field theory. Next, we derive macroscopic steady state equations and discuss the stabilities of steady states for various types of neural network models.

  18. A model independent safeguard against background mismodeling for statistical inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priel, Nadav; Landsman, Hagar; Manfredini, Alessandro; Budnik, Ranny [Department of Particle Physics and Astrophysics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl St. 234, Rehovot (Israel); Rauch, Ludwig, E-mail: nadav.priel@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: rauch@mpi-hd.mpg.de, E-mail: hagar.landsman@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: alessandro.manfredini@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: ran.budnik@weizmann.ac.il [Teilchen- und Astroteilchenphysik, Max-Planck-Institut für Kernphysik, Saupfercheckweg 1, 69117 Heidelberg (Germany)

    2017-05-01

    We propose a safeguard procedure for statistical inference that provides universal protection against mismodeling of the background. The method quantifies and incorporates the signal-like residuals of the background model into the likelihood function, using information available in a calibration dataset. This prevents possible false discovery claims that may arise through unknown mismodeling, and corrects the bias in limit setting created by overestimated or underestimated background. We demonstrate how the method removes the bias created by an incomplete background model using three realistic case studies.

  19. Document Categorization with Modified Statistical Language Models for Agglutinative Languages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tantug

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the document categorization task with statistical language models. Our study mainly focuses on categorization of documents in agglutinative languages. Due to the productive morphology of agglutinative languages, the number of word forms encountered in naturally occurring text is very large. From the language modeling perspective, a large vocabulary results in serious data sparseness problems. In order to cope with this drawback, previous studies in various application areas suggest modified language models based on different morphological units. It is reported that performance improvements can be achieved with these modified language models. In our document categorization experiments, we use standard word form based language models as well as other modified language models based on root words, root words and part-of-speech information, truncated word forms and character sequences. Additionally, to find an optimum parameter set, multiple tests are carried out with different language model orders and smoothing methods. Similar to previous studies on other tasks, our experimental results on categorization of Turkish documents reveal that applying linguistic preprocessing steps for language modeling provides improvements over standard language models to some extent. However, it is also observed that similar level of performance improvements can also be acquired by simpler character level or truncated word form models which are language independent.

  20. A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

    2015-03-01

    Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

  1. Statistical models for expert judgement and wear prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1994-01-01

    This thesis studies the statistical analysis of expert judgements and prediction of wear. The point of view adopted is the one of information theory and Bayesian statistics. A general Bayesian framework for analyzing both the expert judgements and wear prediction is presented. Information theoretic interpretations are given for some averaging techniques used in the determination of consensus distributions. Further, information theoretic models are compared with a Bayesian model. The general Bayesian framework is then applied in analyzing expert judgements based on ordinal comparisons. In this context, the value of information lost in the ordinal comparison process is analyzed by applying decision theoretic concepts. As a generalization of the Bayesian framework, stochastic filtering models for wear prediction are formulated. These models utilize the information from condition monitoring measurements in updating the residual life distribution of mechanical components. Finally, the application of stochastic control models in optimizing operational strategies for inspected components are studied. Monte-Carlo simulation methods, such as the Gibbs sampler and the stochastic quasi-gradient method, are applied in the determination of posterior distributions and in the solution of stochastic optimization problems. (orig.) (57 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.)

  2. A model for disruption generated runaway electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russo, A.J.; Campbell, R.B.

    1993-01-01

    One of the possible consequences of disruptions in tokamaks is the generation of runaway electrons which can impact plasma facing components and cause damage, owing to high local energy deposition. This problem becomes more serious as the machine size and plasma current increase. Since large size and high currents are characteristics of proposed future machines, control of runaway generation is an important design consideration. A lumped circuit model for disruption runaway electron generation indicates that impurity concentration and type, as well as plasma motion, can strongly influence runaway behaviour. A comparison of disruption data from several runs on JET and DIII-D with model results demonstrate the effects of impurities, and plasma motion, on runaway number density and energy. The model is also applied to the calculation of runaway currents for ITER. (author). 16 refs, 13 figs

  3. The GNASH preequilibrium-statistical nuclear model code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E. D.

    1988-01-01

    The following report is based on materials presented in a series of lectures at the International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, which were designed to describe the GNASH preequilibrium statistical model code and its use. An overview is provided of the code with emphasis upon code's calculational capabilities and the theoretical models that have been implemented in it. Two sample problems are discussed, the first dealing with neutron reactions on 58 Ni. the second illustrates the fission model capabilities implemented in the code and involves n + 235 U reactions. Finally a description is provided of current theoretical model and code development underway. Examples of calculated results using these new capabilities are also given. 19 refs., 17 figs., 3 tabs

  4. The Impact of Statistical Leakage Models on Design Yield Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rouwaida Kanj

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Device mismatch and process variation models play a key role in determining the functionality and yield of sub-100 nm design. Average characteristics are often of interest, such as the average leakage current or the average read delay. However, detecting rare functional fails is critical for memory design and designers often seek techniques that enable accurately modeling such events. Extremely leaky devices can inflict functionality fails. The plurality of leaky devices on a bitline increase the dimensionality of the yield estimation problem. Simplified models are possible by adopting approximations to the underlying sum of lognormals. The implications of such approximations on tail probabilities may in turn bias the yield estimate. We review different closed form approximations and compare against the CDF matching method, which is shown to be most effective method for accurate statistical leakage modeling.

  5. Statistical emulation of a tsunami model for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sarri

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Due to the catastrophic consequences of tsunamis, early warnings need to be issued quickly in order to mitigate the hazard. Additionally, there is a need to represent the uncertainty in the predictions of tsunami characteristics corresponding to the uncertain trigger features (e.g. either position, shape and speed of a landslide, or sea floor deformation associated with an earthquake. Unfortunately, computer models are expensive to run. This leads to significant delays in predictions and makes the uncertainty quantification impractical. Statistical emulators run almost instantaneously and may represent well the outputs of the computer model. In this paper, we use the outer product emulator to build a fast statistical surrogate of a landslide-generated tsunami computer model. This Bayesian framework enables us to build the emulator by combining prior knowledge of the computer model properties with a few carefully chosen model evaluations. The good performance of the emulator is validated using the leave-one-out method.

  6. Experimental investigation of statistical models describing distribution of counts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salma, I.; Zemplen-Papp, E.

    1992-01-01

    The binomial, Poisson and modified Poisson models which are used for describing the statistical nature of the distribution of counts are compared theoretically, and conclusions for application are considered. The validity of the Poisson and the modified Poisson statistical distribution for observing k events in a short time interval is investigated experimentally for various measuring times. The experiments to measure the influence of the significant radioactive decay were performed with 89 Y m (T 1/2 =16.06 s), using a multichannel analyser (4096 channels) in the multiscaling mode. According to the results, Poisson statistics describe the counting experiment for short measuring times (up to T=0.5T 1/2 ) and its application is recommended. However, analysis of the data demonstrated, with confidence, that for long measurements (T≥T 1/2 ) Poisson distribution is not valid and the modified Poisson function is preferable. The practical implications in calculating uncertainties and in optimizing the measuring time are discussed. Differences between the standard deviations evaluated on the basis of the Poisson and binomial models are especially significant for experiments with long measuring time (T/T 1/2 ≥2) and/or large detection efficiency (ε>0.30). Optimization of the measuring time for paired observations yields the same solution for either the binomial or the Poisson distribution. (orig.)

  7. Fast optimization of statistical potentials for structurally constrained phylogenetic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigue Nicolas

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical approaches for protein design are relevant in the field of molecular evolutionary studies. In recent years, new, so-called structurally constrained (SC models of protein-coding sequence evolution have been proposed, which use statistical potentials to assess sequence-structure compatibility. In a previous work, we defined a statistical framework for optimizing knowledge-based potentials especially suited to SC models. Our method used the maximum likelihood principle and provided what we call the joint potentials. However, the method required numerical estimations by the use of computationally heavy Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. Results Here, we develop an alternative optimization procedure, based on a leave-one-out argument coupled to fast gradient descent algorithms. We assess that the leave-one-out potential yields very similar results to the joint approach developed previously, both in terms of the resulting potential parameters, and by Bayes factor evaluation in a phylogenetic context. On the other hand, the leave-one-out approach results in a considerable computational benefit (up to a 1,000 fold decrease in computational time for the optimization procedure. Conclusion Due to its computational speed, the optimization method we propose offers an attractive alternative for the design and empirical evaluation of alternative forms of potentials, using large data sets and high-dimensional parameterizations.

  8. Estimating Predictive Variance for Statistical Gas Distribution Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilienthal, Achim J.; Asadi, Sahar; Reggente, Matteo

    2009-01-01

    Recent publications in statistical gas distribution modelling have proposed algorithms that model mean and variance of a distribution. This paper argues that estimating the predictive concentration variance entails not only a gradual improvement but is rather a significant step to advance the field. This is, first, since the models much better fit the particular structure of gas distributions, which exhibit strong fluctuations with considerable spatial variations as a result of the intermittent character of gas dispersal. Second, because estimating the predictive variance allows to evaluate the model quality in terms of the data likelihood. This offers a solution to the problem of ground truth evaluation, which has always been a critical issue for gas distribution modelling. It also enables solid comparisons of different modelling approaches, and provides the means to learn meta parameters of the model, to determine when the model should be updated or re-initialised, or to suggest new measurement locations based on the current model. We also point out directions of related ongoing or potential future research work.

  9. Statistical Downscaling of Temperature with the Random Forest Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Pang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The issues with downscaling the outputs of a global climate model (GCM to a regional scale that are appropriate to hydrological impact studies are investigated using the random forest (RF model, which has been shown to be superior for large dataset analysis and variable importance evaluation. The RF is proposed for downscaling daily mean temperature in the Pearl River basin in southern China. Four downscaling models were developed and validated by using the observed temperature series from 61 national stations and large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. The proposed RF downscaling model was compared to multiple linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine models. Principal component analysis (PCA and partial correlation analysis (PAR were used in the predictor selection for the other models for a comprehensive study. It was shown that the model efficiency of the RF model was higher than that of the other models according to five selected criteria. By evaluating the predictor importance, the RF could choose the best predictor combination without using PCA and PAR. The results indicate that the RF is a feasible tool for the statistical downscaling of temperature.

  10. The ModelCC Model-Driven Parser Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Berzal

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Syntax-directed translation tools require the specification of a language by means of a formal grammar. This grammar must conform to the specific requirements of the parser generator to be used. This grammar is then annotated with semantic actions for the resulting system to perform its desired function. In this paper, we introduce ModelCC, a model-based parser generator that decouples language specification from language processing, avoiding some of the problems caused by grammar-driven parser generators. ModelCC receives a conceptual model as input, along with constraints that annotate it. It is then able to create a parser for the desired textual syntax and the generated parser fully automates the instantiation of the language conceptual model. ModelCC also includes a reference resolution mechanism so that ModelCC is able to instantiate abstract syntax graphs, rather than mere abstract syntax trees.

  11. Statistics of excitations in the electron glass model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palassini, Matteo

    2011-03-01

    We study the statistics of elementary excitations in the classical electron glass model of localized electrons interacting via the unscreened Coulomb interaction in the presence of disorder. We reconsider the long-standing puzzle of the exponential suppression of the single-particle density of states near the Fermi level, by measuring accurately the density of states of charged and electron-hole pair excitations via finite temperature Monte Carlo simulation and zero-temperature relaxation. We also investigate the statistics of large charge rearrangements after a perturbation of the system, which may shed some light on the slow relaxation and glassy phenomena recently observed in a variety of Anderson insulators. In collaboration with Martin Goethe.

  12. A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Metter, E. Jeffrey; Paloski, William H.

    2002-01-01

    Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

  13. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  14. Generative models of the human connectome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betzel, Richard F; Avena-Koenigsberger, Andrea; Goñi, Joaquín; He, Ye; de Reus, Marcel A; Griffa, Alessandra; Vértes, Petra E; Mišic, Bratislav; Thiran, Jean-Philippe; Hagmann, Patric; van den Heuvel, Martijn; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Bullmore, Edward T; Sporns, Olaf

    2016-01-01

    The human connectome represents a network map of the brain's wiring diagram and the pattern into which its connections are organized is thought to play an important role in cognitive function. The generative rules that shape the topology of the human connectome remain incompletely understood. Earlier work in model organisms has suggested that wiring rules based on geometric relationships (distance) can account for many but likely not all topological features. Here we systematically explore a family of generative models of the human connectome that yield synthetic networks designed according to different wiring rules combining geometric and a broad range of topological factors. We find that a combination of geometric constraints with a homophilic attachment mechanism can create synthetic networks that closely match many topological characteristics of individual human connectomes, including features that were not included in the optimization of the generative model itself. We use these models to investigate a lifespan dataset and show that, with age, the model parameters undergo progressive changes, suggesting a rebalancing of the generative factors underlying the connectome across the lifespan. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. CDFTBL: A statistical program for generating cumulative distribution functions from data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslinger, P.W.

    1991-06-01

    This document describes the theory underlying the CDFTBL code and gives details for using the code. The CDFTBL code provides an automated tool for generating a statistical cumulative distribution function that describes a set of field data. The cumulative distribution function is written in the form of a table of probabilities, which can be used in a Monte Carlo computer code. A a specific application, CDFTBL can be used to analyze field data collected for parameters required by the PORMC computer code. Section 2.0 discusses the mathematical basis of the code. Section 3.0 discusses the code structure. Section 4.0 describes the free-format input command language, while Section 5.0 describes in detail the commands to run the program. Section 6.0 provides example program runs, and Section 7.0 provides references. The Appendix provides a program source listing. 11 refs., 2 figs., 19 tabs

  16. Prediction of dimethyl disulfide levels from biosolids using statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Steven A; Vilalai, Sirapong; Arispe, Susanna; Kim, Hyunook; McConnell, Laura L; Torrents, Alba; Peot, Christopher; Ramirez, Mark

    2005-01-01

    Two statistical models were used to predict the concentration of dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) released from biosolids produced by an advanced wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) located in Washington, DC, USA. The plant concentrates sludge from primary sedimentation basins in gravity thickeners (GT) and sludge from secondary sedimentation basins in dissolved air flotation (DAF) thickeners. The thickened sludge is pumped into blending tanks and then fed into centrifuges for dewatering. The dewatered sludge is then conditioned with lime before trucking out from the plant. DMDS, along with other volatile sulfur and nitrogen-containing chemicals, is known to contribute to biosolids odors. These models identified oxidation/reduction potential (ORP) values of a GT and DAF, the amount of sludge dewatered by centrifuges, and the blend ratio between GT thickened sludge and DAF thickened sludge in blending tanks as control variables. The accuracy of the developed regression models was evaluated by checking the adjusted R2 of the regression as well as the signs of coefficients associated with each variable. In general, both models explained observed DMDS levels in sludge headspace samples. The adjusted R2 value of the regression models 1 and 2 were 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. Coefficients for each regression model also had the correct sign. Using the developed models, plant operators can adjust the controllable variables to proactively decrease this odorant. Therefore, these models are a useful tool in biosolids management at WWTPs.

  17. Modelling the horizontal steam generator with APROS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ylijoki, J. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Palsinajaervi, C.; Porkholm, K. [IVO International Ltd, Vantaa (Finland)

    1995-12-31

    In this paper the capability of the five- and six-equation models of the simulation code APROS to simulate the behaviour of the horizontal steam generator is discussed. Different nodalizations are used in the modelling and the results of the stationary state runs are compared. Exactly the same nodalizations have been created for the five- and six-equation models. The main simulation results studied in this paper are void fraction and mass flow distributions in the secondary side of the steam generator. It was found that quite a large number of simulation volumes is required to simulate the distributions with a reasonable accuracy. The simulation results of the different models are presented and their validity is discussed. (orig.). 4 refs.

  18. Modelling the horizontal steam generator with APROS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ylijoki, J [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Palsinajaervi, C; Porkholm, K [IVO International Ltd, Vantaa (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    In this paper the capability of the five- and six-equation models of the simulation code APROS to simulate the behaviour of the horizontal steam generator is discussed. Different nodalizations are used in the modelling and the results of the stationary state runs are compared. Exactly the same nodalizations have been created for the five- and six-equation models. The main simulation results studied in this paper are void fraction and mass flow distributions in the secondary side of the steam generator. It was found that quite a large number of simulation volumes is required to simulate the distributions with a reasonable accuracy. The simulation results of the different models are presented and their validity is discussed. (orig.). 4 refs.

  19. Neutron generator power supply modeling in EMMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, A.C.; Farnsworth, A.V.; Montgomery, S.T.; Peery, J.S.; Merewether, K.O.

    1996-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has prime responsibility for neutron generator design and manufacturing, and is committed to developing predictive tools for modeling neutron generator performance. An important aspect of understanding component performance is explosively driven ferroelectric power supply modeling. EMMA (ElectroMechanical Modeling in ALEGRA) is a three dimensional compile time version of Sandia's ALEGRA code. The code is built on top of the general ALEGRA framework for parallel shock-physics computations but also includes additional capability for modeling the electric potential field in dielectrics. The overall package includes shock propagation due to explosive detonation, depoling of ferroelectric ceramics, electric field calculation and coupling with a general lumped element circuit equation system. The AZTEC parallel iterative solver is used to solve for the electric potential. The DASPK differential algebraic equation package is used to solve the circuit equation system. Sample calculations are described

  20. Statistical approach for uncertainty quantification of experimental modal model parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luczak, M.; Peeters, B.; Kahsin, M.

    2014-01-01

    Composite materials are widely used in manufacture of aerospace and wind energy structural components. These load carrying structures are subjected to dynamic time-varying loading conditions. Robust structural dynamics identification procedure impose tight constraints on the quality of modal models...... represent different complexity levels ranging from coupon, through sub-component up to fully assembled aerospace and wind energy structural components made of composite materials. The proposed method is demonstrated on two application cases of a small and large wind turbine blade........ This paper aims at a systematic approach for uncertainty quantification of the parameters of the modal models estimated from experimentally obtained data. Statistical analysis of modal parameters is implemented to derive an assessment of the entire modal model uncertainty measure. Investigated structures...

  1. Statistical mechanics of sparse generalization and graphical model selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lage-Castellanos, Alejandro; Pagnani, Andrea; Weigt, Martin

    2009-01-01

    One of the crucial tasks in many inference problems is the extraction of an underlying sparse graphical model from a given number of high-dimensional measurements. In machine learning, this is frequently achieved using, as a penalty term, the L p norm of the model parameters, with p≤1 for efficient dilution. Here we propose a statistical mechanics analysis of the problem in the setting of perceptron memorization and generalization. Using a replica approach, we are able to evaluate the relative performance of naive dilution (obtained by learning without dilution, following by applying a threshold to the model parameters), L 1 dilution (which is frequently used in convex optimization) and L 0 dilution (which is optimal but computationally hard to implement). Whereas both L p diluted approaches clearly outperform the naive approach, we find a small region where L 0 works almost perfectly and strongly outperforms the simpler to implement L 1 dilution

  2. Exploiting linkage disequilibrium in statistical modelling in quantitative genomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei

    Alleles at two loci are said to be in linkage disequilibrium (LD) when they are correlated or statistically dependent. Genomic prediction and gene mapping rely on the existence of LD between gentic markers and causul variants of complex traits. In the first part of the thesis, a novel method...... to quantify and visualize local variation in LD along chromosomes in describet, and applied to characterize LD patters at the local and genome-wide scale in three Danish pig breeds. In the second part, different ways of taking LD into account in genomic prediction models are studied. One approach is to use...... the recently proposed antedependence models, which treat neighbouring marker effects as correlated; another approach involves use of haplotype block information derived using the program Beagle. The overall conclusion is that taking LD information into account in genomic prediction models potentially improves...

  3. A statistical model for field emission in superconducting cavities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padamsee, H.; Green, K.; Jost, W.; Wright, B.

    1993-01-01

    A statistical model is used to account for several features of performance of an ensemble of superconducting cavities. The input parameters are: the number of emitters/area, a distribution function for emitter β values, a distribution function for emissive areas, and a processing threshold. The power deposited by emitters is calculated from the field emission current and electron impact energy. The model can successfully account for the fraction of tests that reach the maximum field Epk in an ensemble of cavities, for eg, 1-cells at sign 3 GHz or 5-cells at sign 1.5 GHz. The model is used to predict the level of power needed to successfully process cavities of various surface areas with high pulsed power processing (HPP)

  4. Hierarchy generation in compactified supersymmetric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, G.G.

    1988-01-01

    The problem of generating a large hierarchy in compactified supersymmetric models is re-examined. It is shown how, even for the class of models for which Str M 2 is non-vanishing, a combination of non-perturbative effects and radiative corrections may lead to an exponentially large hierarchy. A corollary is that the couplings of the effective field theory in the visible sector should be small, i.e., perturbation theory should be applicable. (orig.)

  5. Alternative methods of modeling wind generation using production costing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milligan, M.R.; Pang, C.K.

    1996-08-01

    This paper examines the methods of incorporating wind generation in two production costing models: one is a load duration curve (LDC) based model and the other is a chronological-based model. These two models were used to evaluate the impacts of wind generation on two utility systems using actual collected wind data at two locations with high potential for wind generation. The results are sensitive to the selected wind data and the level of benefits of wind generation is sensitive to the load forecast. The total production cost over a year obtained by the chronological approach does not differ significantly from that of the LDC approach, though the chronological commitment of units is more realistic and more accurate. Chronological models provide the capability of answering important questions about wind resources which are difficult or impossible to address with LDC models

  6. Atmospheric statistical dynamic models. Model performance: the Lawrence Livermore Laboratoy Zonal Atmospheric Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, G.L.; Ellsaesser, H.W.; MacCracken, M.C.; Luther, F.M.

    1978-06-01

    Results from the zonal model indicate quite reasonable agreement with observation in terms of the parameters and processes that influence the radiation and energy balance calculations. The model produces zonal statistics similar to those from general circulation models, and has also been shown to produce similar responses in sensitivity studies. Further studies of model performance are planned, including: comparison with July data; comparison of temperature and moisture transport and wind fields for winter and summer months; and a tabulation of atmospheric energetics. Based on these preliminary performance studies, however, it appears that the zonal model can be used in conjunction with more complex models to help unravel the problems of understanding the processes governing present climate and climate change. As can be seen in the subsequent paper on model sensitivity studies, in addition to reduced cost of computation, the zonal model facilitates analysis of feedback mechanisms and simplifies analysis of the interactions between processes

  7. Modeling documents with Generative Adversarial Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Glover, John

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a method for using Generative Adversarial Networks to learn distributed representations of natural language documents. We propose a model that is based on the recently proposed Energy-Based GAN, but instead uses a Denoising Autoencoder as the discriminator network. Document representations are extracted from the hidden layer of the discriminator and evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively.

  8. A Statistical Graphical Model of the California Reservoir System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taeb, A.; Reager, J. T.; Turmon, M.; Chandrasekaran, V.

    2017-11-01

    The recent California drought has highlighted the potential vulnerability of the state's water management infrastructure to multiyear dry intervals. Due to the high complexity of the network, dynamic storage changes in California reservoirs on a state-wide scale have previously been difficult to model using either traditional statistical or physical approaches. Indeed, although there is a significant line of research on exploring models for single (or a small number of) reservoirs, these approaches are not amenable to a system-wide modeling of the California reservoir network due to the spatial and hydrological heterogeneities of the system. In this work, we develop a state-wide statistical graphical model to characterize the dependencies among a collection of 55 major California reservoirs across the state; this model is defined with respect to a graph in which the nodes index reservoirs and the edges specify the relationships or dependencies between reservoirs. We obtain and validate this model in a data-driven manner based on reservoir volumes over the period 2003-2016. A key feature of our framework is a quantification of the effects of external phenomena that influence the entire reservoir network. We further characterize the degree to which physical factors (e.g., state-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), average temperature, snow pack) and economic factors (e.g., consumer price index, number of agricultural workers) explain these external influences. As a consequence of this analysis, we obtain a system-wide health diagnosis of the reservoir network as a function of PDSI.

  9. MASKED AREAS IN SHEAR PEAK STATISTICS: A FORWARD MODELING APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bard, D.; Kratochvil, J. M.; Dawson, W.

    2016-01-01

    The statistics of shear peaks have been shown to provide valuable cosmological information beyond the power spectrum, and will be an important constraint of models of cosmology in forthcoming astronomical surveys. Surveys include masked areas due to bright stars, bad pixels etc., which must be accounted for in producing constraints on cosmology from shear maps. We advocate a forward-modeling approach, where the impacts of masking and other survey artifacts are accounted for in the theoretical prediction of cosmological parameters, rather than correcting survey data to remove them. We use masks based on the Deep Lens Survey, and explore the impact of up to 37% of the survey area being masked on LSST and DES-scale surveys. By reconstructing maps of aperture mass the masking effect is smoothed out, resulting in up to 14% smaller statistical uncertainties compared to simply reducing the survey area by the masked area. We show that, even in the presence of large survey masks, the bias in cosmological parameter estimation produced in the forward-modeling process is ≈1%, dominated by bias caused by limited simulation volume. We also explore how this potential bias scales with survey area and evaluate how much small survey areas are impacted by the differences in cosmological structure in the data and simulated volumes, due to cosmic variance

  10. Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cressie, Noel; Calder, Catherine A; Clark, James S; Ver Hoef, Jay M; Wikle, Christopher K

    2009-04-01

    Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

  11. Statistical multistep direct and statistical multistep compound models for calculations of nuclear data for applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seeliger, D.

    1993-01-01

    This contribution contains a brief presentation and comparison of the different Statistical Multistep Approaches, presently available for practical nuclear data calculations. (author). 46 refs, 5 figs

  12. A Tensor Statistical Model for Quantifying Dynamic Functional Connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yingying; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Kim, Minjeong; Yan, Jin; Wu, Guorong

    2017-06-01

    Functional connectivity (FC) has been widely investigated in many imaging-based neuroscience and clinical studies. Since functional Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) signal is just an indirect reflection of brain activity, it is difficult to accurately quantify the FC strength only based on signal correlation. To address this limitation, we propose a learning-based tensor model to derive high sensitivity and specificity connectome biomarkers at the individual level from resting-state fMRI images. First, we propose a learning-based approach to estimate the intrinsic functional connectivity. In addition to the low level region-to-region signal correlation, latent module-to-module connection is also estimated and used to provide high level heuristics for measuring connectivity strength. Furthermore, sparsity constraint is employed to automatically remove the spurious connections, thus alleviating the issue of searching for optimal threshold. Second, we integrate our learning-based approach with the sliding-window technique to further reveal the dynamics of functional connectivity. Specifically, we stack the functional connectivity matrix within each sliding window and form a 3D tensor where the third dimension denotes for time. Then we obtain dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) for each individual subject by simultaneously estimating the within-sliding-window functional connectivity and characterizing the across-sliding-window temporal dynamics. Third, in order to enhance the robustness of the connectome patterns extracted from dFC, we extend the individual-based 3D tensors to a population-based 4D tensor (with the fourth dimension stands for the training subjects) and learn the statistics of connectome patterns via 4D tensor analysis. Since our 4D tensor model jointly (1) optimizes dFC for each training subject and (2) captures the principle connectome patterns, our statistical model gains more statistical power of representing new subject than current state

  13. Development of modelling algorithm of technological systems by statistical tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shemshura, E. A.; Otrokov, A. V.; Chernyh, V. G.

    2018-03-01

    The paper tackles the problem of economic assessment of design efficiency regarding various technological systems at the stage of their operation. The modelling algorithm of a technological system was performed using statistical tests and with account of the reliability index allows estimating the level of machinery technical excellence and defining the efficiency of design reliability against its performance. Economic feasibility of its application shall be determined on the basis of service quality of a technological system with further forecasting of volumes and the range of spare parts supply.

  14. New statistical model of inelastic fast neutron scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stancicj, V.

    1975-07-01

    A new statistical model for treating the fast neutron inelastic scattering has been proposed by using the general expressions of the double differential cross section in impuls approximation. The use of the Fermi-Dirac distribution of nucleons makes it possible to derive an analytical expression of the fast neutron inelastic scattering kernel including the angular momenta coupling. The obtained values of the inelastic fast neutron cross section calculated from the derived expression of the scattering kernel are in a good agreement with the experiments. A main advantage of the derived expressions is in their simplicity for the practical calculations

  15. Hyperparameterization of soil moisture statistical models for North America with Ensemble Learning Models (Elm)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, P. D.; Brener, G.; Duffy, D.; Nearing, G. S.; Pelissier, C.

    2017-12-01

    Hyperparameterization, of statistical models, i.e. automated model scoring and selection, such as evolutionary algorithms, grid searches, and randomized searches, can improve forecast model skill by reducing errors associated with model parameterization, model structure, and statistical properties of training data. Ensemble Learning Models (Elm), and the related Earthio package, provide a flexible interface for automating the selection of parameters and model structure for machine learning models common in climate science and land cover classification, offering convenient tools for loading NetCDF, HDF, Grib, or GeoTiff files, decomposition methods like PCA and manifold learning, and parallel training and prediction with unsupervised and supervised classification, clustering, and regression estimators. Continuum Analytics is using Elm to experiment with statistical soil moisture forecasting based on meteorological forcing data from NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). There Elm is using the NSGA-2 multiobjective optimization algorithm for optimizing statistical preprocessing of forcing data to improve goodness-of-fit for statistical models (i.e. feature engineering). This presentation will discuss Elm and its components, including dask (distributed task scheduling), xarray (data structures for n-dimensional arrays), and scikit-learn (statistical preprocessing, clustering, classification, regression), and it will show how NSGA-2 is being used for automate selection of soil moisture forecast statistical models for North America.

  16. Statistical Models for Inferring Vegetation Composition from Fossil Pollen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paciorek, C.; McLachlan, J. S.; Shang, Z.

    2011-12-01

    Fossil pollen provide information about vegetation composition that can be used to help understand how vegetation has changed over the past. However, these data have not traditionally been analyzed in a way that allows for statistical inference about spatio-temporal patterns and trends. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model called STEPPS (Spatio-Temporal Empirical Prediction from Pollen in Sediments) that predicts forest composition in southern New England, USA, over the last two millenia based on fossil pollen. The critical relationships between abundances of tree taxa in the pollen record and abundances in actual vegetation are estimated using modern (Forest Inventory Analysis) data and (witness tree) data from colonial records. This gives us two time points at which both pollen and direct vegetation data are available. Based on these relationships, and incorporating our uncertainty about them, we predict forest composition using fossil pollen. We estimate the spatial distribution and relative abundances of tree species and draw inference about how these patterns have changed over time. Finally, we describe ongoing work to extend the modeling to the upper Midwest of the U.S., including an approach to infer tree density and thereby estimate the prairie-forest boundary in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This work is part of the PalEON project, which brings together a team of ecosystem modelers, paleoecologists, and statisticians with the goal of reconstructing vegetation responses to climate during the last two millenia in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The estimates from the statistical modeling will be used to assess and calibrate ecosystem models that are used to project ecological changes in response to global change.

  17. ODM Data Analysis-A tool for the automatic validation, monitoring and generation of generic descriptive statistics of patient data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, Tobias Johannes; Bruland, Philipp; Sarfraz, Saad; Ernsting, Jan; Neuhaus, Philipp; Storck, Michael; Doods, Justin; Ständer, Sonja; Dugas, Martin

    2018-01-01

    A required step for presenting results of clinical studies is the declaration of participants demographic and baseline characteristics as claimed by the FDAAA 801. The common workflow to accomplish this task is to export the clinical data from the used electronic data capture system and import it into statistical software like SAS software or IBM SPSS. This software requires trained users, who have to implement the analysis individually for each item. These expenditures may become an obstacle for small studies. Objective of this work is to design, implement and evaluate an open source application, called ODM Data Analysis, for the semi-automatic analysis of clinical study data. The system requires clinical data in the CDISC Operational Data Model format. After uploading the file, its syntax and data type conformity of the collected data is validated. The completeness of the study data is determined and basic statistics, including illustrative charts for each item, are generated. Datasets from four clinical studies have been used to evaluate the application's performance and functionality. The system is implemented as an open source web application (available at https://odmanalysis.uni-muenster.de) and also provided as Docker image which enables an easy distribution and installation on local systems. Study data is only stored in the application as long as the calculations are performed which is compliant with data protection endeavors. Analysis times are below half an hour, even for larger studies with over 6000 subjects. Medical experts have ensured the usefulness of this application to grant an overview of their collected study data for monitoring purposes and to generate descriptive statistics without further user interaction. The semi-automatic analysis has its limitations and cannot replace the complex analysis of statisticians, but it can be used as a starting point for their examination and reporting.

  18. Automatic Model Generation Framework for Computational Simulation of Cochlear Implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangado, Nerea; Ceresa, Mario; Duchateau, Nicolas; Kjer, Hans Martin; Vera, Sergio; Dejea Velardo, Hector; Mistrik, Pavel; Paulsen, Rasmus R; Fagertun, Jens; Noailly, Jérôme; Piella, Gemma; González Ballester, Miguel Ángel

    2016-08-01

    Recent developments in computational modeling of cochlear implantation are promising to study in silico the performance of the implant before surgery. However, creating a complete computational model of the patient's anatomy while including an external device geometry remains challenging. To address such a challenge, we propose an automatic framework for the generation of patient-specific meshes for finite element modeling of the implanted cochlea. First, a statistical shape model is constructed from high-resolution anatomical μCT images. Then, by fitting the statistical model to a patient's CT image, an accurate model of the patient-specific cochlea anatomy is obtained. An algorithm based on the parallel transport frame is employed to perform the virtual insertion of the cochlear implant. Our automatic framework also incorporates the surrounding bone and nerve fibers and assigns constitutive parameters to all components of the finite element model. This model can then be used to study in silico the effects of the electrical stimulation of the cochlear implant. Results are shown on a total of 25 models of patients. In all cases, a final mesh suitable for finite element simulations was obtained, in an average time of 94 s. The framework has proven to be fast and robust, and is promising for a detailed prognosis of the cochlear implantation surgery.

  19. A new Markov-chain-related statistical approach for modelling synthetic wind power time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pesch, T; Hake, J F; Schröders, S; Allelein, H J

    2015-01-01

    The integration of rising shares of volatile wind power in the generation mix is a major challenge for the future energy system. To address the uncertainties involved in wind power generation, models analysing and simulating the stochastic nature of this energy source are becoming increasingly important. One statistical approach that has been frequently used in the literature is the Markov chain approach. Recently, the method was identified as being of limited use for generating wind time series with time steps shorter than 15–40 min as it is not capable of reproducing the autocorrelation characteristics accurately. This paper presents a new Markov-chain-related statistical approach that is capable of solving this problem by introducing a variable second lag. Furthermore, additional features are presented that allow for the further adjustment of the generated synthetic time series. The influences of the model parameter settings are examined by meaningful parameter variations. The suitability of the approach is demonstrated by an application analysis with the example of the wind feed-in in Germany. It shows that—in contrast to conventional Markov chain approaches—the generated synthetic time series do not systematically underestimate the required storage capacity to balance wind power fluctuation. (paper)

  20. Micromechanical Modeling of Fiber-Reinforced Composites with Statistically Equivalent Random Fiber Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenzhi Wang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Modeling the random fiber distribution of a fiber-reinforced composite is of great importance for studying the progressive failure behavior of the material on the micro scale. In this paper, we develop a new algorithm for generating random representative volume elements (RVEs with statistical equivalent fiber distribution against the actual material microstructure. The realistic statistical data is utilized as inputs of the new method, which is archived through implementation of the probability equations. Extensive statistical analysis is conducted to examine the capability of the proposed method and to compare it with existing methods. It is found that the proposed method presents a good match with experimental results in all aspects including the nearest neighbor distance, nearest neighbor orientation, Ripley’s K function, and the radial distribution function. Finite element analysis is presented to predict the effective elastic properties of a carbon/epoxy composite, to validate the generated random representative volume elements, and to provide insights of the effect of fiber distribution on the elastic properties. The present algorithm is shown to be highly accurate and can be used to generate statistically equivalent RVEs for not only fiber-reinforced composites but also other materials such as foam materials and particle-reinforced composites.

  1. A combined statistical model for multiple motifs search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Lifeng; Liu Xin; Guan Shan

    2008-01-01

    Transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) play key roles in genebior 6.8 wavelet expression and regulation. They are short sequence segments with definite structure and can be recognized by the corresponding transcription factors correctly. From the viewpoint of statistics, the candidates of TFBS should be quite different from the segments that are randomly combined together by nucleotide. This paper proposes a combined statistical model for finding over-represented short sequence segments in different kinds of data set. While the over-represented short sequence segment is described by position weight matrix, the nucleotide distribution at most sites of the segment should be far from the background nucleotide distribution. The central idea of this approach is to search for such kind of signals. This algorithm is tested on 3 data sets, including binding sites data set of cyclic AMP receptor protein in E.coli, PlantProm DB which is a non-redundant collection of proximal promoter sequences from different species, collection of the intergenic sequences of the whole genome of E.Coli. Even though the complexity of these three data sets is quite different, the results show that this model is rather general and sensible. (general)

  2. Statistical Method to Overcome Overfitting Issue in Rational Function Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh Moghaddam, S. H.; Mokhtarzade, M.; Alizadeh Naeini, A.; Alizadeh Moghaddam, S. A.

    2017-09-01

    Rational function models (RFMs) are known as one of the most appealing models which are extensively applied in geometric correction of satellite images and map production. Overfitting is a common issue, in the case of terrain dependent RFMs, that degrades the accuracy of RFMs-derived geospatial products. This issue, resulting from the high number of RFMs' parameters, leads to ill-posedness of the RFMs. To tackle this problem, in this study, a fast and robust statistical approach is proposed and compared to Tikhonov regularization (TR) method, as a frequently-used solution to RFMs' overfitting. In the proposed method, a statistical test, namely, significance test is applied to search for the RFMs' parameters that are resistant against overfitting issue. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated for two real data sets of Cartosat-1 satellite images. The obtained results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method in term of the achievable level of accuracy. This technique, indeed, shows an improvement of 50-80% over the TR.

  3. Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Clemente, Riccardo; Pietronero, Luciano

    2012-07-01

    We introduce a statistical agent based model to describe the phenomenon of drug abuse and its dynamical evolution at the individual and global level. The agents are heterogeneous with respect to their intrinsic inclination to drugs, to their budget attitude and social environment. The various levels of drug use were inspired by the professional description of the phenomenon and this permits a direct comparison with all available data. We show that certain elements have a great importance to start the use of drugs, for example the rare events in the personal experiences which permit to overcame the barrier of drug use occasionally. The analysis of how the system reacts to perturbations is very important to understand its key elements and it provides strategies for effective policy making. The present model represents the first step of a realistic description of this phenomenon and can be easily generalized in various directions.

  4. Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gonzalez-Aparicio, I.; Monforti, F.; Volker, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    generation time series dataset for the EU-28 and neighbouring countries at hourly intervals and at different geographical aggregation levels (country, bidding zone and administrative territorial unit), for a 30 year period taking into account the wind generating fleet at the end of 2015. (C) 2017 The Authors...... and characteristics of the wind resource which is related to the accuracy of the approach in converting wind speed data into power values. One of the main factors contributing to the uncertainty in these conversion methods is the selection of the spatial resolution. Although numerical weather prediction models can...... could not be captured by the use of a reanalysis technique and could be translated into misinterpretations of the wind power peaks, ramping capacities, the behaviour of power prices, as well as bidding strategies for the electricity market. This study contributes to the understanding what is captured...

  5. Graphene growth process modeling: a physical-statistical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Huang, Qiang

    2014-09-01

    As a zero-band semiconductor, graphene is an attractive material for a wide variety of applications such as optoelectronics. Among various techniques developed for graphene synthesis, chemical vapor deposition on copper foils shows high potential for producing few-layer and large-area graphene. Since fabrication of high-quality graphene sheets requires the understanding of growth mechanisms, and methods of characterization and control of grain size of graphene flakes, analytical modeling of graphene growth process is therefore essential for controlled fabrication. The graphene growth process starts with randomly nucleated islands that gradually develop into complex shapes, grow in size, and eventually connect together to cover the copper foil. To model this complex process, we develop a physical-statistical approach under the assumption of self-similarity during graphene growth. The growth kinetics is uncovered by separating island shapes from area growth rate. We propose to characterize the area growth velocity using a confined exponential model, which not only has clear physical explanation, but also fits the real data well. For the shape modeling, we develop a parametric shape model which can be well explained by the angular-dependent growth rate. This work can provide useful information for the control and optimization of graphene growth process on Cu foil.

  6. A Self-Organizing Map-Based Approach to Generating Reduced-Size, Statistically Similar Climate Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabell, R.; Delle Monache, L.; Alessandrini, S.; Rodriguez, L.

    2015-12-01

    Climate-based studies require large amounts of data in order to produce accurate and reliable results. Many of these studies have used 30-plus year data sets in order to produce stable and high-quality results, and as a result, many such data sets are available, generally in the form of global reanalyses. While the analysis of these data lead to high-fidelity results, its processing can be very computationally expensive. This computational burden prevents the utilization of these data sets for certain applications, e.g., when rapid response is needed in crisis management and disaster planning scenarios resulting from release of toxic material in the atmosphere. We have developed a methodology to reduce large climate datasets to more manageable sizes while retaining statistically similar results when used to produce ensembles of possible outcomes. We do this by employing a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm to analyze general patterns of meteorological fields over a regional domain of interest to produce a small set of "typical days" with which to generate the model ensemble. The SOM algorithm takes as input a set of vectors and generates a 2D map of representative vectors deemed most similar to the input set and to each other. Input predictors are selected that are correlated with the model output, which in our case is an Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (T&D) model that is highly dependent on surface winds and boundary layer depth. To choose a subset of "typical days," each input day is assigned to its closest SOM map node vector and then ranked by distance. Each node vector is treated as a distribution and days are sampled from them by percentile. Using a 30-node SOM, with sampling every 20th percentile, we have been able to reduce 30 years of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data for the month of October to 150 "typical days." To estimate the skill of this approach, the "Measure of Effectiveness" (MOE) metric is used to compare area and overlap

  7. Statistical model of planning technological indicators for oil extraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galeyev, R G; Lavushchenko, V P; Sheshnev, A S

    1979-01-01

    The efficiency of the process of oil extraction is determined by the effect of a number of interrelated technological indicators. Analytical expression of the interrelationships of the indicators was represented by an econometric model consisting of a system of linear regression equations. The basic advantage of these models is the possibility of calculating in them different, significantly important interrelationships. This makes it possible to correlate all calculations into a single logically noncontradictory balanced system. The developed model of the technological process of oil extraction makes it possible to significantly facilitate calculation and planning of its basic indicators with regard for system and balance requirements, makes it possible to purposefully generate new variants. In this case because of the optimal distribution of the volumes of geological-technical measures, a decrease in the total outlays for their implementation is achieved. Thus for the Berezovskiy field, this saving was R 150,000.

  8. Statistical model with two order parameters for ductile and soft fiber bundles in nanoscience and biomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldi, Antonio

    2011-04-01

    Traditional fiber bundles models (FBMs) have been an effective tool to understand brittle heterogeneous systems. However, fiber bundles in modern nano- and bioapplications demand a new generation of FBM capturing more complex deformation processes in addition to damage. In the context of loose bundle systems and with reference to time-independent plasticity and soft biomaterials, we formulate a generalized statistical model for ductile fracture and nonlinear elastic problems capable of handling more simultaneous deformation mechanisms by means of two order parameters (as opposed to one). As the first rational FBM for coupled damage problems, it may be the cornerstone for advanced statistical models of heterogeneous systems in nanoscience and materials design, especially to explore hierarchical and bio-inspired concepts in the arena of nanobiotechnology. Applicative examples are provided for illustrative purposes at last, discussing issues in inverse analysis (i.e., nonlinear elastic polymer fiber and ductile Cu submicron bars arrays) and direct design (i.e., strength prediction).

  9. Flashover of a vacuum-insulator interface: A statistical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. A. Stygar

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available We have developed a statistical model for the flashover of a 45° vacuum-insulator interface (such as would be found in an accelerator subject to a pulsed electric field. The model assumes that the initiation of a flashover plasma is a stochastic process, that the characteristic statistical component of the flashover delay time is much greater than the plasma formative time, and that the average rate at which flashovers occur is a power-law function of the instantaneous value of the electric field. Under these conditions, we find that the flashover probability is given by 1-exp(-E_{p}^{β}t_{eff}C/k^{β}, where E_{p} is the peak value in time of the spatially averaged electric field E(t, t_{eff}≡∫[E(t/E_{p}]^{β}dt is the effective pulse width, C is the insulator circumference, k∝exp(λ/d, and β and λ are constants. We define E(t as V(t/d, where V(t is the voltage across the insulator and d is the insulator thickness. Since the model assumes that flashovers occur at random azimuthal locations along the insulator, it does not apply to systems that have a significant defect, i.e., a location contaminated with debris or compromised by an imperfection at which flashovers repeatedly take place, and which prevents a random spatial distribution. The model is consistent with flashover measurements to within 7% for pulse widths between 0.5 ns and 10   μs, and to within a factor of 2 between 0.5 ns and 90 s (a span of over 11 orders of magnitude. For these measurements, E_{p} ranges from 64 to 651  kV/cm, d from 0.50 to 4.32 cm, and C from 4.96 to 95.74 cm. The model is significantly more accurate, and is valid over a wider range of parameters, than the J. C. Martin flashover relation that has been in use since 1971 [J. C. Martin on Pulsed Power, edited by T. H. Martin, A. H. Guenther, and M. Kristiansen (Plenum, New York, 1996]. We have generalized the statistical model to estimate the total-flashover probability of an

  10. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  11. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, James B; Widen, Holly M

    2015-01-01

    Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  12. Statistics Based Models for the Dynamics of Chernivtsi Children Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor G. Nesteruk

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background. Simple mathematical models of contamination and SIR-model of spreading an infection were used to simulate the time dynamics of the unknown before children disease, which occurred in Chernivtsi (Ukraine. The cause of many cases of alopecia, which began in this city in August 1988 is still not fully clarified. According to the official report of the governmental commission, the last new cases occurred in the middle of November 1988, and the reason of the illness was reported as chemical exogenous intoxication. Later this illness became the name “Chernivtsi chemical disease”. Nevertheless, the significantly increased number of new cases of the local alopecia was registered almost three years and is still not clarified. Objective. The comparison of two different versions of the disease: chemical exogenous intoxication and infection. Identification of the parameters of mathematical models and prediction of the disease development. Methods. Analytical solutions of the contamination models and SIR-model for an epidemic are obtained. The optimal values of parameters with the use of linear regression were found. Results. The optimal values of the models parameters with the use of statistical approach were identified. The calculations showed that the infectious version of the disease is more reliable in comparison with the popular contamination one. The possible date of the epidemic beginning was estimated. Conclusions. The optimal parameters of SIR-model allow calculating the realistic number of victims and other characteristics of possible epidemic. They also show that increased number of cases of local alopecia could be a part of the same epidemic as “Chernivtsi chemical disease”.

  13. Statistical model for prediction of hearing loss in patients receiving cisplatin chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Andrew; Tarima, Sergey; Wong, Stuart; Friedland, David R; Runge, Christina L

    2013-03-01

    This statistical model might be used to predict cisplatin-induced hearing loss, particularly in patients undergoing concomitant radiotherapy. To create a statistical model based on pretreatment hearing thresholds to provide an individual probability for hearing loss from cisplatin therapy and, secondarily, to investigate the use of hearing classification schemes as predictive tools for hearing loss. Retrospective case-control study. Tertiary care medical center. A total of 112 subjects receiving chemotherapy and audiometric evaluation were evaluated for the study. Of these subjects, 31 met inclusion criteria for analysis. The primary outcome measurement was a statistical model providing the probability of hearing loss following the use of cisplatin chemotherapy. Fifteen of the 31 subjects had significant hearing loss following cisplatin chemotherapy. American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Society and Gardner-Robertson hearing classification schemes revealed little change in hearing grades between pretreatment and posttreatment evaluations for subjects with or without hearing loss. The Chang hearing classification scheme could effectively be used as a predictive tool in determining hearing loss with a sensitivity of 73.33%. Pretreatment hearing thresholds were used to generate a statistical model, based on quadratic approximation, to predict hearing loss (C statistic = 0.842, cross-validated = 0.835). The validity of the model improved when only subjects who received concurrent head and neck irradiation were included in the analysis (C statistic = 0.91). A calculated cutoff of 0.45 for predicted probability has a cross-validated sensitivity and specificity of 80%. Pretreatment hearing thresholds can be used as a predictive tool for cisplatin-induced hearing loss, particularly with concomitant radiotherapy.

  14. Linear mixed models a practical guide using statistical software

    CERN Document Server

    West, Brady T; Galecki, Andrzej T

    2014-01-01

    Highly recommended by JASA, Technometrics, and other journals, the first edition of this bestseller showed how to easily perform complex linear mixed model (LMM) analyses via a variety of software programs. Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical Software, Second Edition continues to lead readers step by step through the process of fitting LMMs. This second edition covers additional topics on the application of LMMs that are valuable for data analysts in all fields. It also updates the case studies using the latest versions of the software procedures and provides up-to-date information on the options and features of the software procedures available for fitting LMMs in SAS, SPSS, Stata, R/S-plus, and HLM.New to the Second Edition A new chapter on models with crossed random effects that uses a case study to illustrate software procedures capable of fitting these models Power analysis methods for longitudinal and clustered study designs, including software options for power analyses and suggest...

  15. Corrected Statistical Energy Analysis Model for Car Interior Noise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Putra

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical energy analysis (SEA is a well-known method to analyze the flow of acoustic and vibration energy in a complex structure. For an acoustic space where significant absorptive materials are present, direct field component from the sound source dominates the total sound field rather than a reverberant field, where the latter becomes the basis in constructing the conventional SEA model. Such environment can be found in a car interior and thus a corrected SEA model is proposed here to counter this situation. The model is developed by eliminating the direct field component from the total sound field and only the power after the first reflection is considered. A test car cabin was divided into two subsystems and by using a loudspeaker as a sound source, the power injection method in SEA was employed to obtain the corrected coupling loss factor and the damping loss factor from the corrected SEA model. These parameters were then used to predict the sound pressure level in the interior cabin using the injected input power from the engine. The results show satisfactory agreement with the directly measured SPL.

  16. Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-11-01

    Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

  17. Percolation for a model of statistically inhomogeneous random media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quintanilla, J.; Torquato, S.

    1999-01-01

    We study clustering and percolation phenomena for a model of statistically inhomogeneous two-phase random media, including functionally graded materials. This model consists of inhomogeneous fully penetrable (Poisson distributed) disks and can be constructed for any specified variation of volume fraction. We quantify the transition zone in the model, defined by the frontier of the cluster of disks which are connected to the disk-covered portion of the model, by defining the coastline function and correlation functions for the coastline. We find that the behavior of these functions becomes largely independent of the specific choice of grade in volume fraction as the separation of length scales becomes large. We also show that the correlation function behaves in a manner similar to that of fractal Brownian motion. Finally, we study fractal characteristics of the frontier itself and compare to similar properties for two-dimensional percolation on a lattice. In particular, we show that the average location of the frontier appears to be related to the percolation threshold for homogeneous fully penetrable disks. copyright 1999 American Institute of Physics

  18. Glass viscosity calculation based on a global statistical modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fluegel, Alex

    2007-02-01

    A global statistical glass viscosity model was developed for predicting the complete viscosity curve, based on more than 2200 composition-property data of silicate glasses from the scientific literature, including soda-lime-silica container and float glasses, TV panel glasses, borosilicate fiber wool and E type glasses, low expansion borosilicate glasses, glasses for nuclear waste vitrification, lead crystal glasses, binary alkali silicates, and various further compositions from over half a century. It is shown that within a measurement series from a specific laboratory the reported viscosity values are often over-estimated at higher temperatures due to alkali and boron oxide evaporation during the measurement and glass preparation, including data by Lakatos et al. (1972) and the recently published High temperature glass melt property database for process modeling by Seward et al. (2005). Similarly, in the glass transition range many experimental data of borosilicate glasses are reported too high due to phase separation effects. The developed global model corrects those errors. The model standard error was 9-17°C, with R^2 = 0.985-0.989. The prediction 95% confidence interval for glass in mass production largely depends on the glass composition of interest, the composition uncertainty, and the viscosity level. New insights in the mixed-alkali effect are provided.

  19. Statistical properties of bidimensional patterns generated from delayed and extended maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giacomelli, G.; Lepri, S.; Politi, A.

    1995-01-01

    The space-time chaotic patterns associated with a class of dynamical systems ranging from delayed to extended maps are investigated. All the systems are constructed in such a way that the corresponding two-dimensional (2D) representation is characterized by the same updating rule in the bulk. The main difference among them is the direction of the ''time'' axis in the plane. Despite the different causality relations among the various models, the resulting patterns are shown to be statistically equivalent. In particular, the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy density assumes always the same value. Therefore, it can be considered as an absolute indicator, measuring the amount of disorder of a 2D pattern. The Kaplan-Yorke dimension density is instead rule dependent: this indicator alone cannot be used to quantify the degrees of freedom of a given pattern; one must further specify the direction of propagation in the plane

  20. An Equilibrium Model of User Generated Content

    OpenAIRE

    Dae-Yong Ahn; Jason A. Duan; Carl F. Mela

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers the joint creation and consumption of content on user generated content platforms (e.g., reviews or articles, chat, videos, etc.). On these platforms, users' utilities depend upon the participation of others; hence, users' expectations regarding the participation of others on the site becomes germane to their own involvement levels. Yet these beliefs are often assumed to be fixed. Accordingly, we develop a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model of joint consumpti...

  1. Chapter 3 – Phenomenology of Tsunamis: Statistical Properties from Generation to Runup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2015-01-01

    Observations related to tsunami generation, propagation, and runup are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. In the three coastal regimes considered (near-field broadside, near-field oblique, and far field), the observed maximum wave amplitude is associated with different parts of the tsunami wavefield. The maximum amplitude in the near-field broadside regime is most often associated with the direct arrival from the source, whereas in the near-field oblique regime, the maximum amplitude is most often associated with the propagation of edge waves. In the far field, the maximum amplitude is most often caused by the interaction of the tsunami coda that develops during basin-wide propagation and the nearshore response, including the excitation of edge waves, shelf modes, and resonance. Statistical distributions that describe tsunami observations are also reviewed, both in terms of spatial distributions, such as coseismic slip on the fault plane and near-field runup, and temporal distributions, such as wave amplitudes in the far field. In each case, fundamental theories of tsunami physics are heuristically used to explain the observations.

  2. Predicting the accumulated number of plugged tubes in a steam generator using statistical methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferng, Y.-M.; Fan, C.N.; Pei, B.S.; Li, H.-N.

    2008-01-01

    A steam generator (SG) plays a significant role not only with respect to the primary-to-secondary heat transfer but also as a fission product barrier to prevent the release of radionuclides. Tube plugging is an efficient way to avoid releasing radionuclides when SG tubes are severely degraded. However, this remedial action may cause the decrease of SG heat transfer capability, especially in transient or accident conditions. It is therefore crucial for the plant staff to understand the trend of plugged tubes for the SG operation and maintenance. Statistical methodologies are proposed in this paper to predict this trend. The accumulated numbers of SG plugged tubes versus the operation time are predicted using the Weibull and log-normal distributions, which correspond well with the plant measured data from a selected pressurized water reactor (PWR). With the help of these predictions, the accumulated number of SG plugged tubes can be reasonably extrapolated to the 40-year operation lifetime (or even longer than 40 years) of a PWR. This information can assist the plant policymakers to determine whether or when a SG must be replaced

  3. Statistical framework for detection of genetically modified organisms based on Next Generation Sequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Sander; Fraiture, Marie-Alice; Deforce, Dieter; De Keersmaecker, Sigrid C J; De Loose, Marc; Ruttink, Tom; Herman, Philippe; Van Nieuwerburgh, Filip; Roosens, Nancy

    2016-02-01

    Because the number and diversity of genetically modified (GM) crops has significantly increased, their analysis based on real-time PCR (qPCR) methods is becoming increasingly complex and laborious. While several pioneers already investigated Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) as an alternative to qPCR, its practical use has not been assessed for routine analysis. In this study a statistical framework was developed to predict the number of NGS reads needed to detect transgene sequences, to prove their integration into the host genome and to identify the specific transgene event in a sample with known composition. This framework was validated by applying it to experimental data from food matrices composed of pure GM rice, processed GM rice (noodles) or a 10% GM/non-GM rice mixture, revealing some influential factors. Finally, feasibility of NGS for routine analysis of GM crops was investigated by applying the framework to samples commonly encountered in routine analysis of GM crops. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. A Statistical Toolbox For Mining And Modeling Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D’Aubigny Gérard

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Most data mining projects in spatial economics start with an evaluation of a set of attribute variables on a sample of spatial entities, looking for the existence and strength of spatial autocorrelation, based on the Moran’s and the Geary’s coefficients, the adequacy of which is rarely challenged, despite the fact that when reporting on their properties, many users seem likely to make mistakes and to foster confusion. My paper begins by a critical appraisal of the classical definition and rational of these indices. I argue that while intuitively founded, they are plagued by an inconsistency in their conception. Then, I propose a principled small change leading to corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients, which strongly simplifies their relationship, and opens the way to an augmented toolbox of statistical methods of dimension reduction and data visualization, also useful for modeling purposes. A second section presents a formal framework, adapted from recent work in statistical learning, which gives theoretical support to our definition of corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients. More specifically, the multivariate data mining methods presented here, are easily implementable on the existing (free software, yield methods useful to exploit the proposed corrections in spatial data analysis practice, and, from a mathematical point of view, whose asymptotic behavior, already studied in a series of papers by Belkin & Niyogi, suggests that they own qualities of robustness and a limited sensitivity to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP, valuable in exploratory spatial data analysis.

  5. Statistical mechanics of learning orthogonal signals for general covariance models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyle, David C

    2010-01-01

    Statistical mechanics techniques have proved to be useful tools in quantifying the accuracy with which signal vectors are extracted from experimental data. However, analysis has previously been limited to specific model forms for the population covariance C, which may be inappropriate for real world data sets. In this paper we obtain new statistical mechanical results for a general population covariance matrix C. For data sets consisting of p sample points in R N we use the replica method to study the accuracy of orthogonal signal vectors estimated from the sample data. In the asymptotic limit of N,p→∞ at fixed α = p/N, we derive analytical results for the signal direction learning curves. In the asymptotic limit the learning curves follow a single universal form, each displaying a retarded learning transition. An explicit formula for the location of the retarded learning transition is obtained and we find marked variation in the location of the retarded learning transition dependent on the distribution of population covariance eigenvalues. The results of the replica analysis are confirmed against simulation

  6. Finding the Root Causes of Statistical Inconsistency in Community Earth System Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milroy, D.; Hammerling, D.; Baker, A. H.

    2017-12-01

    Baker et al (2015) developed the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) to provide a metric for software quality assurance by determining statistical consistency between an ensemble of CESM outputs and new test runs. The test has proved useful for detecting statistical difference caused by compiler bugs and errors in physical modules. However, detection is only the necessary first step in finding the causes of statistical difference. The CESM is a vastly complex model comprised of millions of lines of code which is developed and maintained by a large community of software engineers and scientists. Any root cause analysis is correspondingly challenging. We propose a new capability for CESM-ECT: identifying the sections of code that cause statistical distinguishability. The first step is to discover CESM variables that cause CESM-ECT to classify new runs as statistically distinct, which we achieve via Randomized Logistic Regression. Next we use a tool developed to identify CESM components that define or compute the variables found in the first step. Finally, we employ the application Kernel GENerator (KGEN) created in Kim et al (2016) to detect fine-grained floating point differences. We demonstrate an example of the procedure and advance a plan to automate this process in our future work.

  7. Representation of the contextual statistical model by hyperbolic amplitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2005-01-01

    We continue the development of a so-called contextual statistical model (here context has the meaning of a complex of physical conditions). It is shown that, besides contexts producing the conventional trigonometric cos-interference, there exist contexts producing the hyperbolic cos-interference. Starting with the corresponding interference formula of total probability we represent such contexts by hyperbolic probabilistic amplitudes or in the abstract formalism by normalized vectors of a hyperbolic analogue of the Hilbert space. There is obtained a hyperbolic Born's rule. Incompatible observables are represented by noncommutative operators. This paper can be considered as the first step towards hyperbolic quantum probability. We also discuss possibilities of experimental verification of hyperbolic quantum mechanics: in physics of elementary particles, string theory as well as in experiments with nonphysical systems, e.g., in psychology, cognitive sciences, and economy

  8. α-ternary decay of Cf isotopes, statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joseph, Jayesh George; Santhosh, K.P.

    2017-01-01

    The process of splitting a heavier nucleus to three simultaneous fragments is termed as ternary fission and compared to usual binary fission, it is a rare process. Depending on the nature of third particle either it is called light charged particle (LCP) accompanying fission if it is light or true ternary fission if all three fragments have nearly same mass distributions. After experimental observations in early seventies, initially with a slow pace, now theoretical studies in ternary fission has turned to a hot topic in nuclear decay studies especially in past one decade. Mean while various models have been developed, existing being modified and seeking for new with a hope that it can beam a little more light to the profound nature of nuclear interaction. In this study a statistical method, level density formulation, has been employed

  9. Craniofacial Statistical Deformation Models of Wild-type mice and Crouzon mice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsdóttir, Hildur; Darvann, Tron Andre; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær

    2007-01-01

    Crouzon syndrome is characterised by the premature fusion of cranial sutures and synchondroses leading to craniofacial growth disturbances. The gene causing the syndrome was discovered approximately a decade ago and recently the first mouse model of the syndrome was generated. In this study, a set...... of Micro CT scannings of the heads of wild-type (normal) mice and Crouzon mice were investigated. Statistical deformation models were built to assess the anatomical differences between the groups, as well as the within-group anatomical variation. Following the approach by Rueckert et al. we built an atlas...

  10. Turking Statistics: Student-Generated Surveys Increase Student Engagement and Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitley, Cameron T.; Dietz, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Thirty years ago, Hubert M. Blalock Jr. published an article in "Teaching Sociology" about the importance of teaching statistics. We honor Blalock's legacy by assessing how using Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) in statistics classes can enhance student learning and increase statistical literacy among social science gradaute students. In…

  11. Modeling and Grid Generation of Iced Airfoils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickerman, Mary B.; Baez, Marivell; Braun, Donald C.; Hackenberg, Anthony W.; Pennline, James A.; Schilling, Herbert W.

    2007-01-01

    SmaggIce Version 2.0 is a software toolkit for geometric modeling and grid generation for two-dimensional, singleand multi-element, clean and iced airfoils. A previous version of SmaggIce was described in Preparing and Analyzing Iced Airfoils, NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 8 (August 2004), page 32. To recapitulate: Ice shapes make it difficult to generate quality grids around airfoils, yet these grids are essential for predicting ice-induced complex flow. This software efficiently creates high-quality structured grids with tools that are uniquely tailored for various ice shapes. SmaggIce Version 2.0 significantly enhances the previous version primarily by adding the capability to generate grids for multi-element airfoils. This version of the software is an important step in streamlining the aeronautical analysis of ice airfoils using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools. The user may prepare the ice shape, define the flow domain, decompose it into blocks, generate grids, modify/divide/merge blocks, and control grid density and smoothness. All these steps may be performed efficiently even for the difficult glaze and rime ice shapes. Providing the means to generate highly controlled grids near rough ice, the software includes the creation of a wrap-around block (called the "viscous sublayer block"), which is a thin, C-type block around the wake line and iced airfoil. For multi-element airfoils, the software makes use of grids that wrap around and fill in the areas between the viscous sub-layer blocks for all elements that make up the airfoil. A scripting feature records the history of interactive steps, which can be edited and replayed later to produce other grids. Using this version of SmaggIce, ice shape handling and grid generation can become a practical engineering process, rather than a laborious research effort.

  12. Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based statistical models and Remote sensing data in tropical environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahabi, Himan; Hashim, Mazlan

    2015-04-22

    This research presents the results of the GIS-based statistical models for generation of landslide susceptibility mapping using geographic information system (GIS) and remote-sensing data for Cameron Highlands area in Malaysia. Ten factors including slope, aspect, soil, lithology, NDVI, land cover, distance to drainage, precipitation, distance to fault, and distance to road were extracted from SAR data, SPOT 5 and WorldView-1 images. The relationships between the detected landslide locations and these ten related factors were identified by using GIS-based statistical models including analytical hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC) and spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) models. The landslide inventory map which has a total of 92 landslide locations was created based on numerous resources such as digital aerial photographs, AIRSAR data, WorldView-1 images, and field surveys. Then, 80% of the landslide inventory was used for training the statistical models and the remaining 20% was used for validation purpose. The validation results using the Relative landslide density index (R-index) and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) demonstrated that the SMCE model (accuracy is 96%) is better in prediction than AHP (accuracy is 91%) and WLC (accuracy is 89%) models. These landslide susceptibility maps would be useful for hazard mitigation purpose and regional planning.

  13. Next Generation Carbon-Nitrogen Dynamics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Fisher, R. A.; Vrugt, J. A.; Wullschleger, S. D.; McDowell, N. G.

    2012-12-01

    Nitrogen is a key regulator of vegetation dynamics, soil carbon release, and terrestrial carbon cycles. Thus, to assess energy impacts on the global carbon cycle and future climates, it is critical that we have a mechanism-based and data-calibrated nitrogen model that simulates nitrogen limitation upon both above and belowground carbon dynamics. In this study, we developed a next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model within the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). This next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model utilized 1) a mechanistic model of nitrogen limitation on photosynthesis with nitrogen trade-offs among light absorption, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage; 2) an optimal leaf nitrogen model that links soil nitrogen availability and leaf nitrogen content; and 3) an ecosystem demography (ED) model that simulates the growth and light competition of tree cohorts and is currently coupled to CLM. Our three test cases with changes in CO2 concentration, growing temperature and radiation demonstrate the model's ability to predict the impact of altered environmental conditions on nitrogen allocations. Currently, we are testing the model against different datasets including soil fertilization and Free Air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments across different forest types. We expect that our calibrated model will considerably improve our understanding and predictability of vegetation-climate interactions.itrogen allocation model evaluations. The figure shows the scatter plots of predicted and measured Vc,max and Jmax scaled to 25 oC (i.e.,Vc,max25 and Jmax25) at elevated CO2 (570 ppm, test case one), reduced radiation in canopy (0.1-0.9 of the radiation at the top of canopy, test case two) and reduced growing temperature (15oC, test case three). The model is first calibrated using control data under ambient CO2 (370 ppm), radiation at the top of the canopy (621 μmol photon/m2/s), the normal growing temperature (30oC). The fitted model

  14. Critical, statistical, and thermodynamical properties of lattice models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, Vipin Kerala

    2013-10-15

    In this thesis we investigate zero temperature and low temperature properties - critical, statistical and thermodynamical - of lattice models in the contexts of bosonic cold atom systems, magnetic materials, and non-interacting particles on various lattice geometries. We study quantum phase transitions in the Bose-Hubbard model with higher body interactions, as relevant for optical lattice experiments of strongly interacting bosons, in one and two dimensions; the universality of the Mott insulator to superfluid transition is found to remain unchanged for even large three body interaction strengths. A systematic renormalization procedure is formulated to fully re-sum these higher (three and four) body interactions into the two body terms. In the strongly repulsive limit, we analyse the zero and low temperature physics of interacting hard-core bosons on the kagome lattice at various fillings. Evidence for a disordered phase in the Ising limit of the model is presented; in the strong coupling limit, the transition between the valence bond solid and the superfluid is argued to be first order at the tip of the solid lobe.

  15. The statistical multifragmentation model: Origins and recent advances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donangelo, R.; Souza, S. R.

    2016-01-01

    We review the Statistical Multifragmentation Model (SMM) which considers a generalization of the liquid-drop model for hot nuclei and allows one to calculate thermodynamic quantities characterizing the nuclear ensemble at the disassembly stage. We show how to determine probabilities of definite partitions of finite nuclei and how to determine, through Monte Carlo calculations, observables such as the caloric curve, multiplicity distributions, heat capacity, among others. Some experimental measurements of the caloric curve confirmed the SMM predictions of over 10 years before, leading to a surge in the interest in the model. However, the experimental determination of the fragmentation temperatures relies on the yields of different isotopic species, which were not correctly calculated in the schematic, liquid-drop picture, employed in the SMM. This led to a series of improvements in the SMM, in particular to the more careful choice of nuclear masses and energy densities, specially for the lighter nuclei. With these improvements the SMM is able to make quantitative determinations of isotope production. We show the application of SMM to the production of exotic nuclei through multifragmentation. These preliminary calculations demonstrate the need for a careful choice of the system size and excitation energy to attain maximum yields.

  16. Critical, statistical, and thermodynamical properties of lattice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varma, Vipin Kerala

    2013-10-01

    In this thesis we investigate zero temperature and low temperature properties - critical, statistical and thermodynamical - of lattice models in the contexts of bosonic cold atom systems, magnetic materials, and non-interacting particles on various lattice geometries. We study quantum phase transitions in the Bose-Hubbard model with higher body interactions, as relevant for optical lattice experiments of strongly interacting bosons, in one and two dimensions; the universality of the Mott insulator to superfluid transition is found to remain unchanged for even large three body interaction strengths. A systematic renormalization procedure is formulated to fully re-sum these higher (three and four) body interactions into the two body terms. In the strongly repulsive limit, we analyse the zero and low temperature physics of interacting hard-core bosons on the kagome lattice at various fillings. Evidence for a disordered phase in the Ising limit of the model is presented; in the strong coupling limit, the transition between the valence bond solid and the superfluid is argued to be first order at the tip of the solid lobe.

  17. Constraining statistical-model parameters using fusion and spallation reactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charity Robert J.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The de-excitation of compound nuclei has been successfully described for several decades by means of statistical models. However, such models involve a large number of free parameters and ingredients that are often underconstrained by experimental data. We show how the degeneracy of the model ingredients can be partially lifted by studying different entrance channels for de-excitation, which populate different regions of the parameter space of the compound nucleus. Fusion reactions, in particular, play an important role in this strategy because they fix three out of four of the compound-nucleus parameters (mass, charge and total excitation energy. The present work focuses on fission and intermediate-mass-fragment emission cross sections. We prove how equivalent parameter sets for fusion-fission reactions can be resolved using another entrance channel, namely spallation reactions. Intermediate-mass-fragment emission can be constrained in a similar way. An interpretation of the best-fit IMF barriers in terms of the Wigner energies of the nascent fragments is discussed.

  18. Optimizing DNA assembly based on statistical language modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Gang; Zhang, Shemin; Dong, Yafei

    2017-12-15

    By successively assembling genetic parts such as BioBrick according to grammatical models, complex genetic constructs composed of dozens of functional blocks can be built. However, usually every category of genetic parts includes a few or many parts. With increasing quantity of genetic parts, the process of assembling more than a few sets of these parts can be expensive, time consuming and error prone. At the last step of assembling it is somewhat difficult to decide which part should be selected. Based on statistical language model, which is a probability distribution P(s) over strings S that attempts to reflect how frequently a string S occurs as a sentence, the most commonly used parts will be selected. Then, a dynamic programming algorithm was designed to figure out the solution of maximum probability. The algorithm optimizes the results of a genetic design based on a grammatical model and finds an optimal solution. In this way, redundant operations can be reduced and the time and cost required for conducting biological experiments can be minimized. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  19. Terminal-Dependent Statistical Inference for the FBSDEs Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunquan Song

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The original stochastic differential equations (OSDEs and forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs are often used to model complex dynamic process that arise in financial, ecological, and many other areas. The main difference between OSDEs and FBSDEs is that the latter is designed to depend on a terminal condition, which is a key factor in some financial and ecological circumstances. It is interesting but challenging to estimate FBSDE parameters from noisy data and the terminal condition. However, to the best of our knowledge, the terminal-dependent statistical inference for such a model has not been explored in the existing literature. We proposed a nonparametric terminal control variables estimation method to address this problem. The reason why we use the terminal control variables is that the newly proposed inference procedures inherit the terminal-dependent characteristic. Through this new proposed method, the estimators of the functional coefficients of the FBSDEs model are obtained. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are also discussed. Simulation studies show that the proposed method gives satisfying estimates for the FBSDE parameters from noisy data and the terminal condition. A simulation is performed to test the feasibility of our method.

  20. Statistical inference for imperfect maintenance models with missing data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dijoux, Yann; Fouladirad, Mitra; Nguyen, Dinh Tuan

    2016-01-01

    The paper considers complex industrial systems with incomplete maintenance history. A corrective maintenance is performed after the occurrence of a failure and its efficiency is assumed to be imperfect. In maintenance analysis, the databases are not necessarily complete. Specifically, the observations are assumed to be window-censored. This situation arises relatively frequently after the purchase of a second-hand unit or in the absence of maintenance record during the burn-in phase. The joint assessment of the wear-out of the system and the maintenance efficiency is investigated under missing data. A review along with extensions of statistical inference procedures from an observation window are proposed in the case of perfect and minimal repair using the renewal and Poisson theories, respectively. Virtual age models are employed to model imperfect repair. In this framework, new estimation procedures are developed. In particular, maximum likelihood estimation methods are derived for the most classical virtual age models. The benefits of the new estimation procedures are highlighted by numerical simulations and an application to a real data set. - Highlights: • New estimation procedures for window-censored observations and imperfect repair. • Extensions of inference methods for perfect and minimal repair with missing data. • Overview of maximum likelihood method with complete and incomplete observations. • Benefits of the new procedures highlighted by simulation studies and real application.

  1. The statistical multifragmentation model: Origins and recent advances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donangelo, R., E-mail: donangel@fing.edu.uy [Instituto de Física, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de la República, Julio Herrera y Reissig 565, 11300, Montevideo (Uruguay); Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, C.P. 68528, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro - RJ (Brazil); Souza, S. R., E-mail: srsouza@if.ufrj.br [Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, C.P. 68528, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro - RJ (Brazil); Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, C.P. 15051, 91501-970 Porto Alegre - RS (Brazil)

    2016-07-07

    We review the Statistical Multifragmentation Model (SMM) which considers a generalization of the liquid-drop model for hot nuclei and allows one to calculate thermodynamic quantities characterizing the nuclear ensemble at the disassembly stage. We show how to determine probabilities of definite partitions of finite nuclei and how to determine, through Monte Carlo calculations, observables such as the caloric curve, multiplicity distributions, heat capacity, among others. Some experimental measurements of the caloric curve confirmed the SMM predictions of over 10 years before, leading to a surge in the interest in the model. However, the experimental determination of the fragmentation temperatures relies on the yields of different isotopic species, which were not correctly calculated in the schematic, liquid-drop picture, employed in the SMM. This led to a series of improvements in the SMM, in particular to the more careful choice of nuclear masses and energy densities, specially for the lighter nuclei. With these improvements the SMM is able to make quantitative determinations of isotope production. We show the application of SMM to the production of exotic nuclei through multifragmentation. These preliminary calculations demonstrate the need for a careful choice of the system size and excitation energy to attain maximum yields.

  2. Summary goodness-of-fit statistics for binary generalized linear models with noncanonical link functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canary, Jana D; Blizzard, Leigh; Barry, Ronald P; Hosmer, David W; Quinn, Stephen J

    2016-05-01

    Generalized linear models (GLM) with a canonical logit link function are the primary modeling technique used to relate a binary outcome to predictor variables. However, noncanonical links can offer more flexibility, producing convenient analytical quantities (e.g., probit GLMs in toxicology) and desired measures of effect (e.g., relative risk from log GLMs). Many summary goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistics exist for logistic GLM. Their properties make the development of GOF statistics relatively straightforward, but it can be more difficult under noncanonical links. Although GOF tests for logistic GLM with continuous covariates (GLMCC) have been applied to GLMCCs with log links, we know of no GOF tests in the literature specifically developed for GLMCCs that can be applied regardless of link function chosen. We generalize the Tsiatis GOF statistic originally developed for logistic GLMCCs, (TG), so that it can be applied under any link function. Further, we show that the algebraically related Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) and Pigeon-Heyse (J(2) ) statistics can be applied directly. In a simulation study, TG, HL, and J(2) were used to evaluate the fit of probit, log-log, complementary log-log, and log models, all calculated with a common grouping method. The TG statistic consistently maintained Type I error rates, while those of HL and J(2) were often lower than expected if terms with little influence were included. Generally, the statistics had similar power to detect an incorrect model. An exception occurred when a log GLMCC was incorrectly fit to data generated from a logistic GLMCC. In this case, TG had more power than HL or J(2) . © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/London School of Economics.

  3. Statistical Clustering and Compositional Modeling of Iapetus VIMS Spectral Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinilla-Alonso, N.; Roush, T. L.; Marzo, G.; Dalle Ore, C. M.; Cruikshank, D. P.

    2009-12-01

    It has long been known that the surfaces of Saturn's major satellites are predominantly icy objects [e.g. 1 and references therein]. Since 2004, these bodies have been the subject of observations by the Cassini-VIMS (Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer) experiment [2]. Iapetus has the unique property that the hemisphere centered on the apex of its locked synchronous orbital motion around Saturn has a very low geometrical albedo of 2-6%, while the opposite hemisphere is about 10 times more reflective. The nature and origin of the dark material of Iapetus has remained a question since its discovery [3 and references therein]. The nature of this material and how it is distributed on the surface of this body, can shed new light into the knowledge of the Saturnian system. We apply statistical clustering [4] and theoretical modeling [5,6] to address the surface composition of Iapetus. The VIMS data evaluated were obtained during the second flyby of Iapetus, in September 2007. This close approach allowed VIMS to obtain spectra at relatively high spatial resolution, ~1-22 km/pixel. The data we study sampled the trailing hemisphere and part of the dark leading one. The statistical clustering [4] is used to identify statistically distinct spectra on Iapetus. The composition of these distinct spectra are evaluated using theoretical models [5,6]. We thank Allan Meyer for his help. This research was supported by an appointment to the NASA Postdoctoral Program at the Ames Research Center, administered by Oak Ridge Associated Universities through a contract with NASA. [1] A, Coradini et al., 2009, Earth, Moon & Planets, 105, 289-310. [2] Brown et al., 2004, Space Science Reviews, 115, 111-168. [3] Cruikshank, D. et al Icarus, 2008, 193, 334-343. [4] Marzo, G. et al. 2008, Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, E12, CiteID E12009. [5] Hapke, B. 1993, Theory of reflectance and emittance spectroscopy, Cambridge University Press. [6] Shkuratov, Y. et al. 1999, Icarus, 137, 235-246.

  4. Ontology modeling for generation of clinical pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmine Tehrani

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Increasing costs of health care, fuelled by demand for high quality, cost-effective healthcare has drove hospitals to streamline their patient care delivery systems. One such systematic approach is the adaptation of Clinical Pathways (CP as a tool to increase the quality of healthcare delivery. However, most organizations still rely on are paper-based pathway guidelines or specifications, which have limitations in process management and as a result can influence patient safety outcomes. In this paper, we present a method for generating clinical pathways based on organizational semiotics by capturing knowledge from syntactic, semantic and pragmatic to social level. Design/methodology/approach: The proposed modeling approach to generation of CPs adopts organizational semiotics and enables the generation of semantically rich representation of CP knowledge. Semantic Analysis Method (SAM is applied to explicitly represent the semantics of the concepts, their relationships and patterns of behavior in terms of an ontology chart. Norm Analysis Method (NAM is adopted to identify and formally specify patterns of behavior and rules that govern the actions identified on the ontology chart. Information collected during semantic and norm analysis is integrated to guide the generation of CPs using best practice represented in BPMN thus enabling the automation of CP. Findings: This research confirms the necessity of taking into consideration social aspects in designing information systems and automating CP. The complexity of healthcare processes can be best tackled by analyzing stakeholders, which we treat as social agents, their goals and patterns of action within the agent network. Originality/value: The current modeling methods describe CPs from a structural aspect comprising activities, properties and interrelationships. However, these methods lack a mechanism to describe possible patterns of human behavior and the conditions under which the

  5. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook

  6. Towards a Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, A.; Kashinath, K.; McAuliffe, J.; Prabhat, M.; Stark, P. B.; Wehner, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are important extreme weather phenomena that have a strong impact on humans. TC forecasts are largely based on global numerical models that produce TC-like features. Aspects of Tropical Cyclones such as their formation/genesis, evolution, intensification and dissipation over land are important and challenging problems in climate science. This study investigates the environmental conditions associated with Tropical Cyclone Genesis (TCG) by testing how accurately a statistical model can predict TCG in the CAM5.1 climate model. TCG events are defined using TECA software @inproceedings{Prabhat2015teca, title={TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science}, author={Prabhat and Byna, Surendra and Vishwanath, Venkatram and Dart, Eli and Wehner, Michael and Collins, William D}, booktitle={Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns}, pages={426-436}, year={2015}, organization={Springer}} to extract TC trajectories from CAM5.1. L1-regularized logistic regression (L1LR) is applied to the CAM5.1 output. The predictions have nearly perfect accuracy for data not associated with TC tracks and high accuracy differentiating between high vorticity and low vorticity systems. The model's active variables largely correspond to current hypotheses about important factors for TCG, such as wind field patterns and local pressure minima, and suggests new routes for investigation. Furthermore, our model's predictions of TC activity are competitive with the output of an instantaneous version of Emanuel and Nolan's Genesis Potential Index (GPI) @inproceedings{eman04, title = "Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system", author = "Kerry Emanuel and Nolan, {David S.}", year = "2004", pages = "240-241", booktitle = "26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology"}.

  7. Editorial to: Six papers on Dynamic Statistical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    statistical methodology and theory for large and complex data sets that included biostatisticians and mathematical statisticians from three faculties at the University of Copenhagen. The satellite meeting took place August 17–19, 2011. Its purpose was to bring together researchers in statistics and related......The following six papers are based on invited lectures at the satellite meeting held at the University of Copenhagen before the 58th World Statistics Congress of the International Statistical Institute in Dublin in 2011. At the invitation of the Bernoulli Society, the satellite meeting...... was organized around the theme “Dynamic Statistical Models” as a part of the Program of Excellence at the University of Copenhagen on “Statistical methods for complex and high dimensional models” (http://statistics.ku.dk/). The Excellence Program in Statistics was a research project to develop and investigate...

  8. The issue of statistical power for overall model fit in evaluating structural equation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard HERMIDA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Statistical power is an important concept for psychological research. However, examining the power of a structural equation model (SEM is rare in practice. This article provides an accessible review of the concept of statistical power for the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA index of overall model fit in structural equation modeling. By way of example, we examine the current state of power in the literature by reviewing studies in top Industrial-Organizational (I/O Psychology journals using SEMs. Results indicate that in many studies, power is very low, which implies acceptance of invalid models. Additionally, we examined methodological situations which may have an influence on statistical power of SEMs. Results showed that power varies significantly as a function of model type and whether or not the model is the main model for the study. Finally, results indicated that power is significantly related to model fit statistics used in evaluating SEMs. The results from this quantitative review imply that researchers should be more vigilant with respect to power in structural equation modeling. We therefore conclude by offering methodological best practices to increase confidence in the interpretation of structural equation modeling results with respect to statistical power issues.

  9. Statistical modeling of nitrogen-dependent modulation of root system architecture in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya, Takao; Kubo, Takuya; von Wirén, Nicolaus; Takahashi, Hideki

    2016-03-01

    Plant root development is strongly affected by nutrient availability. Despite the importance of structure and function of roots in nutrient acquisition, statistical modeling approaches to evaluate dynamic and temporal modulations of root system architecture in response to nutrient availability have remained as widely open and exploratory areas in root biology. In this study, we developed a statistical modeling approach to investigate modulations of root system architecture in response to nitrogen availability. Mathematical models were designed for quantitative assessment of root growth and root branching phenotypes and their dynamic relationships based on hierarchical configuration of primary and lateral roots formulating the fishbone-shaped root system architecture in Arabidopsis thaliana. Time-series datasets reporting dynamic changes in root developmental traits on different nitrate or ammonium concentrations were generated for statistical analyses. Regression analyses unraveled key parameters associated with: (i) inhibition of primary root growth under nitrogen limitation or on ammonium; (ii) rapid progression of lateral root emergence in response to ammonium; and (iii) inhibition of lateral root elongation in the presence of excess nitrate or ammonium. This study provides a statistical framework for interpreting dynamic modulation of root system architecture, supported by meta-analysis of datasets displaying morphological responses of roots to diverse nitrogen supplies. © 2015 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  10. Modeling and Generating Strategy Games Mechanics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahlmann, Tobias

    of the game is, how players may manipulate the game world, etc. We present the Strategy Games Description Language (SGDL), a tree-based approach to model the game mechanics of strategy games. SGDL allows game designers to rapid prototype their game ideas with the help of our customisable game engine. We...... their games to individual players’ preferences by creating game content adaptively to how the player plays (and likes) a game. W we extend the notion of “procedural game content generation” by “game mechanics”. Game mechanics herein refer to the way that objects in a game may interact, what the goal...... present several example games to demonstrate the capabilities of the language and how to model common strategy game elements. Furthermore, we present methods to procedurally generate and evaluate game mechanics modelled in SGDL in terms of enjoyability. We argue that an evolutionary process can be used...

  11. Sparse Power-Law Network Model for Reliable Statistical Predictions Based on Sampled Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander P. Kartun-Giles

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A projective network model is a model that enables predictions to be made based on a subsample of the network data, with the predictions remaining unchanged if a larger sample is taken into consideration. An exchangeable model is a model that does not depend on the order in which nodes are sampled. Despite a large variety of non-equilibrium (growing and equilibrium (static sparse complex network models that are widely used in network science, how to reconcile sparseness (constant average degree with the desired statistical properties of projectivity and exchangeability is currently an outstanding scientific problem. Here we propose a network process with hidden variables which is projective and can generate sparse power-law networks. Despite the model not being exchangeable, it can be closely related to exchangeable uncorrelated networks as indicated by its information theory characterization and its network entropy. The use of the proposed network process as a null model is here tested on real data, indicating that the model offers a promising avenue for statistical network modelling.

  12. Parameter estimation and statistical test of geographically weighted bivariate Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amalia, Junita; Purhadi, Otok, Bambang Widjanarko

    2017-11-01

    Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution with count data as the random variables and it has one parameter defines both mean and variance. Poisson regression assumes mean and variance should be same (equidispersion). Nonetheless, some case of the count data unsatisfied this assumption because variance exceeds mean (over-dispersion). The ignorance of over-dispersion causes underestimates in standard error. Furthermore, it causes incorrect decision in the statistical test. Previously, paired count data has a correlation and it has bivariate Poisson distribution. If there is over-dispersion, modeling paired count data is not sufficient with simple bivariate Poisson regression. Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (BPIGR) model is mix Poisson regression for modeling paired count data within over-dispersion. BPIGR model produces a global model for all locations. In another hand, each location has different geographic conditions, social, cultural and economic so that Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is needed. The weighting function of each location in GWR generates a different local model. Geographically Weighted Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (GWBPIGR) model is used to solve over-dispersion and to generate local models. Parameter estimation of GWBPIGR model obtained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Meanwhile, hypothesis testing of GWBPIGR model acquired by Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (MLRT) method.

  13. Appplication of statistical mechanical methods to the modeling of social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strathman, Anthony Robert

    With the recent availability of large-scale social data sets, social networks have become open to quantitative analysis via the methods of statistical physics. We examine the statistical properties of a real large-scale social network, generated from cellular phone call-trace logs. We find this network, like many other social networks to be assortative (r = 0.31) and clustered (i.e., strongly transitive, C = 0.21). We measure fluctuation scaling to identify the presence of internal structure in the network and find that structural inhomogeneity effectively disappears at the scale of a few hundred nodes, though there is no sharp cutoff. We introduce an agent-based model of social behavior, designed to model the formation and dissolution of social ties. The model is a modified Metropolis algorithm containing agents operating under the basic sociological constraints of reciprocity, communication need and transitivity. The model introduces the concept of a social temperature. We go on to show that this simple model reproduces the global statistical network features (incl. assortativity, connected fraction, mean degree, clustering, and mean shortest path length) of the real network data and undergoes two phase transitions, one being from a "gas" to a "liquid" state and the second from a liquid to a glassy state as function of this social temperature.

  14. A Review of Study Designs and Statistical Methods for Genomic Epidemiology Studies using Next Generation Sequencing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian eWang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Results from numerous linkage and association studies have greatly deepened scientists’ understanding of the genetic basis of many human diseases, yet some important questions remain unanswered. For example, although a large number of disease-associated loci have been identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS in the past 10 years, it is challenging to interpret these results as most disease-associated markers have no clear functional roles in disease etiology, and all the identified genomic factors only explain a small portion of disease heritability. With the help of next-generation sequencing (NGS, diverse types of genomic and epigenetic variations can be detected with high accuracy. More importantly, instead of using linkage disequilibrium to detect association signals based on a set of pre-set probes, NGS allows researchers to directly study all the variants in each individual, therefore promises opportunities for identifying functional variants and a more comprehensive dissection of disease heritability. Although the current scale of NGS studies is still limited due to the high cost, the success of several recent studies suggests the great potential for applying NGS in genomic epidemiology, especially as the cost of sequencing continues to drop. In this review, we discuss several pioneer applications of NGS, summarize scientific discoveries for rare and complex diseases, and compare various study designs including targeted sequencing and whole-genome sequencing using population-based and family-based cohorts. Finally, we highlight recent advancements in statistical methods proposed for sequencing analysis, including group-based association tests, meta-analysis techniques, and annotation tools for variant prioritization.

  15. Development of a statistical oil spill model for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Weijun

    2017-11-01

    To gain a better understanding of the impacts from potential risk sources, we developed an oil spill model using probabilistic method, which simulates numerous oil spill trajectories under varying environmental conditions. The statistical results were quantified from hypothetical oil spills under multiple scenarios, including area affected probability, mean oil slick thickness, and duration of water surface exposed to floating oil. The three sub-indices together with marine area vulnerability are merged to compute the composite index, characterizing the spatial distribution of risk degree. Integral of the index can be used to identify the overall risk from an emission source. The developed model has been successfully applied in comparison to and selection of an appropriate oil port construction location adjacent to a marine protected area for Phoca largha in China. The results highlight the importance of selection of candidates before project construction, since that risk estimation from two adjacent potential sources may turn out to be significantly different regarding hydrodynamic conditions and eco-environmental sensitivity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Efficient pan-European river flood hazard modelling through a combination of statistical and physical models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paprotny, D.; Morales Napoles, O.; Jonkman, S.N.

    2017-01-01

    Flood hazard is currently being researched on continental and global scales, using models of increasing complexity. In this paper we investigate a different, simplified approach, which combines statistical and physical models in place of conventional rainfall-run-off models to carry out flood

  17. Mass generation in perturbed massless integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Controzzi, D.; Mussardo, G.

    2005-01-01

    We extend form-factor perturbation theory to non-integrable deformations of massless integrable models, in order to address the problem of mass generation in such systems. With respect to the standard renormalisation group analysis this approach is more suitable for studying the particle content of the perturbed theory. Analogously to the massive case, interesting information can be obtained already at first order, such as the identification of the operators which create a mass gap and those which induce the confinement of the massless particles in the perturbed theory

  18. Detailed modeling of the statistical uncertainty of Thomson scattering measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morton, L A; Parke, E; Hartog, D J Den

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty of electron density and temperature fluctuation measurements is determined by statistical uncertainty introduced by multiple noise sources. In order to quantify these uncertainties precisely, a simple but comprehensive model was made of the noise sources in the MST Thomson scattering system and of the resulting variance in the integrated scattered signals. The model agrees well with experimental and simulated results. The signal uncertainties are then used by our existing Bayesian analysis routine to find the most likely electron temperature and density, with confidence intervals. In the model, photonic noise from scattered light and plasma background light is multiplied by the noise enhancement factor (F) of the avalanche photodiode (APD). Electronic noise from the amplifier and digitizer is added. The amplifier response function shapes the signal and induces correlation in the noise. The data analysis routine fits a characteristic pulse to the digitized signals from the amplifier, giving the integrated scattered signals. A finite digitization rate loses information and can cause numerical integration error. We find a formula for the variance of the scattered signals in terms of the background and pulse amplitudes, and three calibration constants. The constants are measured easily under operating conditions, resulting in accurate estimation of the scattered signals' uncertainty. We measure F ≈ 3 for our APDs, in agreement with other measurements for similar APDs. This value is wavelength-independent, simplifying analysis. The correlated noise we observe is reproduced well using a Gaussian response function. Numerical integration error can be made negligible by using an interpolated characteristic pulse, allowing digitization rates as low as the detector bandwidth. The effect of background noise is also determined

  19. Local yield stress statistics in model amorphous solids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbot, Armand; Lerbinger, Matthias; Hernandez-Garcia, Anier; García-García, Reinaldo; Falk, Michael L.; Vandembroucq, Damien; Patinet, Sylvain

    2018-03-01

    We develop and extend a method presented by Patinet, Vandembroucq, and Falk [Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 045501 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.045501] to compute the local yield stresses at the atomic scale in model two-dimensional Lennard-Jones glasses produced via differing quench protocols. This technique allows us to sample the plastic rearrangements in a nonperturbative manner for different loading directions on a well-controlled length scale. Plastic activity upon shearing correlates strongly with the locations of low yield stresses in the quenched states. This correlation is higher in more structurally relaxed systems. The distribution of local yield stresses is also shown to strongly depend on the quench protocol: the more relaxed the glass, the higher the local plastic thresholds. Analysis of the magnitude of local plastic relaxations reveals that stress drops follow exponential distributions, justifying the hypothesis of an average characteristic amplitude often conjectured in mesoscopic or continuum models. The amplitude of the local plastic rearrangements increases on average with the yield stress, regardless of the system preparation. The local yield stress varies with the shear orientation tested and strongly correlates with the plastic rearrangement locations when the system is sheared correspondingly. It is thus argued that plastic rearrangements are the consequence of shear transformation zones encoded in the glass structure that possess weak slip planes along different orientations. Finally, we justify the length scale employed in this work and extract the yield threshold statistics as a function of the size of the probing zones. This method makes it possible to derive physically grounded models of plasticity for amorphous materials by directly revealing the relevant details of the shear transformation zones that mediate this process.

  20. Microstructure Modeling of Third Generation Disk Alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jou, Herng-Jeng

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this program was to model, validate, and predict the precipitation microstructure evolution, using PrecipiCalc (QuesTek Innovations LLC) software, for 3rd generation Ni-based gas turbine disc superalloys during processing and service, with a set of logical and consistent experiments and characterizations. Furthermore, within this program, the originally research-oriented microstructure simulation tool was to be further improved and implemented to be a useful and user-friendly engineering tool. In this report, the key accomplishments achieved during the third year (2009) of the program are summarized. The activities of this year included: Further development of multistep precipitation simulation framework for gamma prime microstructure evolution during heat treatment; Calibration and validation of gamma prime microstructure modeling with supersolvus heat treated LSHR; Modeling of the microstructure evolution of the minor phases, particularly carbides, during isothermal aging, representing the long term microstructure stability during thermal exposure; and the implementation of software tools. During the research and development efforts to extend the precipitation microstructure modeling and prediction capability in this 3-year program, we identified a hurdle, related to slow gamma prime coarsening rate, with no satisfactory scientific explanation currently available. It is desirable to raise this issue to the Ni-based superalloys research community, with hope that in future there will be a mechanistic understanding and physics-based treatment to overcome the hurdle. In the mean time, an empirical correction factor was developed in this modeling effort to capture the experimental observations.